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Nusrat Jahan Intern Supervisor Spring 2011 Internship Program School of Business Independent University, Bangladesh. May 4, 2011
Subject: Submission of Internship Report- Spring, 2011.
Madam: I take great pleasure to inform you that as per the requirement forwarded by the university, I have prepared my Internship Report on the topic- “Recent Stock Market Turmoil, Its Macroeconomic Impact, How LBSL has Handled the Situation, and What more LBSL Could Do to Maximize its Returns in Future”-provided by the Human Resource Department of Lanka Bangla Securities Ltd. I feel highly delighted to present my paper before you as I believe that this contains some fresh interpretations of many conventional practices. Again, as I am completely new in this sector, the analysis and findings presented here could be further used as an example of the view of a general countryman. I look for your kind appreciation. Sincerely Yours:
__________________________________ Tanzina Ahmed Choudhury
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I earnestly thank Mr. Saif Ahmed Chowdhury, Manager & Accounts In-Charge of LBSL, Chittagong Region, for acting as a mentor round-the-clock and showing me the right direction whenever I started going off-track. Nevertheless, I must acknowledge the continual support I got from my Internship Supervisor Ms. Nusrat Jahan through guiding me during the whole Internship period. Also, I should express my gratitude to the following people for being so accommodative that I never felt left-out during my whole intern journey:
1. Mr. Mohammed Nasir Uddin Chowdhury, CEO & Director, LBSL 2. Mr. Wali Ul Islam, Deputy Chief Executive Officer, LBSL 3. Mr. Mohammad Amir Hossain, DGM & Regional Chief, Chittagong 4. Mr. Sheikh Munir Ahmed, Senior Manager & Branch In-Charge, LBSL,
5. Mr. Mohammed Showkat Nazim, Manager & Branch In-Charge, LBSL,
6. Mr. Md. Ashaduzaman Riyadh, Research Analyst & In-Charge, Research &
Analysis Department, LBSL
7. Mr. Farhad Ahmed Chowdhury, In-Charge, Human Resource Department,
LBSL Finally, I thank all other LBSL staffs whose cooperation I found to be really kind and supportive. Indeed, I wish every success of LBSL in future.
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As I intend to become a Security Analyst in future, I was determined to do my BBA Internship in a brokerage house. I felt very lucky when I got response from LBSL, the topmost brokerage house in Bangladesh, and commenced my Senior Project with a topic provided by them. When I started doing my research, I began only with the few basic concepts of Investments that I had learnt in my Bachelors. But while working, I learnt lots of new things which improvised my thought capacity more than ever and I found myself gradually turning from an amateur to a professional. As I had four objectives and had quite little ideas on the issues, I started working with all of them at once and soon found myself completely engrossed in books, magazines, newspapers, etc, not being pressurized by the tough objectives, but to douse my curiosity for learning more about the market every moment. The first objective being identifying the reasons behind the market crisis required both general and expert opinions. Hence, I developed a questionnaire and gathered data according to the calculated sample size. The insights provided me with many possible reasons among which the Central Bank Directive to limit banks’ capital market exposure was pointed by every respondent. In my paper, I have jotted down all the reasons with supportive explanations which, I believe, will help the readers by acting as a reference for future use. My second objective was related to forming some predictions regarding the macroeconomic impact of the crisis and according to me, the capital market will certainly experience a upper ride but with the cost of increasing real estate prices and in-turn, increasing the chances of failure of the Bank Sector just how it happened in US during 2007-08. The third objective forwarded to me included evaluating the reactions of LBSL during the period of extreme volatility. To my findings, LBSL proved its edge in combating debacles and the way they plan ahead is simply commendable.
Internship Paper- Spring 2011|4 My fourth objective was to propose some possible actions that will help LBSL minimize the risks of future turmoil and maximize their future returns. In this portion, I have highlighted the benefits of some complementary scopes available in the market surroundings as well as recommended some possible ways of attracting new investors followed by suggestions on supportive promotional activities. At the end, I have included a detailed supplement containing some raw analysis on the market stakeholders which, I confirm, will act as an added pleasure for interested readers. Finally, I must say that my Internship experience could have never been better than what I experienced in LBSL. I assert, what I learnt here, has added a golden feather in my hat and this will surely act as the key contributor in my mission of being a competent Security Analyst.
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I confirm that everything presented in this report are based on my own views and not copied from any other source. If any resemblance is found, it would be purely coincidental and I would be available whenever clarification is needed. I earnestly seek for feedback from the readers. Hence, feel free to send your comments to the following address: email@example.com ---Tanzina Ahmed Choudhury
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Table of Contents
Chapt er No. Chapter Title Introductio n Methodolog y Possible Reasons Behind the Crisis Point No. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.0 4.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 4.0 4 Possible Macroecono mic Impact 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 8.0 9.0 Topic Introduction Origin of the Report Background of the Internship The Accommodator- Lanka Bangla Securities Ltd. Objectives of the Study Methodology Limitations of the Study Possible Reasons Behind the Crisis Summary of the Observations and Findings Illustration of the Findings- Reasons Behind the Crisis Possible Macroeconomic Impact Decline in Government Turnover Tax Revenue Decline in Government Tax Revenue from Dividends and Selling of Sponsor Shares Increasing Interest Rates Rise in Capital Market Indexes Related Findings From the Questionnaire Survey Age and Education Level of the Investors Occupation of the Investors Relation among Income, Concern and Diversification Reasons behind the Turmoil Possible Healing Strategies Conclusion Supplement References Bibliography Page No. 8 8 8 8 9 11 12 14 14 15 24 24 24 24 25 28 28 30 31 33 34 35 37
Related Findings From the Questionnai re Survey Conclusion Supplement
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1.1 Origin of the Report
This report is prepared to fulfill the internship requirement of Lanka Bangla Securities Ltd. to be submitted to the company by 10 April, 2011.
1.2 Background of the Internship
BBA 499 (Internship/Senior Project), being a mandatory course offered by the Independent University Bangladesh, bears the basic ideology to introduce the young graduates to the work-world as soon as they reach the completion of undergraduate studies to make them efficient and eligible for being among the leaders of tomorrow.
1.3 The Accommodator- Lanka Bangla Securities Ltd.
Lanka Bangla Securities Limited (LBSL) is a subsidiary of Lanka Bangla Finance Limited and a leading equity brokerage house in the country with a diverse clientele of institutions, high net worth individuals, foreign funds and retail investors. The company commenced stock broking activities in 1997 and has over time become the largest stock broking company in the country having developed a strong team of highly skilled and experienced professionals. LBSL (Formerly known as Vanik Bangladesh Securities Ltd) started its stock broking business in 1997 trading on the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) Ltd, while
Internship Paper- Spring 2011|9 commencing trading on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) in1998. The company was renamed Lanka Bangla Securities with effect from 27 April 2005 following a restructuring of the company. To fulfill the accommodator requirement, the Intern feels happy to be chosen by Lanka Bangla Securities Ltd.
1.4 Objectives of the study
• • • • To find out the causes of the recent capital market crisis. To figure out the consequent impact of this crisis in Bangladesh Economy. To evaluate how LBSL, as a leading brokerage house, has handled the situation. To highlight some possible moves for LBSL in order to minimize such risk to maximize its returns in future business operations.
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Literature Review: As the research was based upon a current and sensitive issue, very little reliable data were publicly available based on which the researcher could run a literature review. Also, as the objectives were forwarded by the sponsor, the researcher had an advantage to skip the literature review process which is usually done to formulate objectives for the research.
Observation: To get an on-location idea on capital markets, the researcher
stayed round the clock in one among the LBSL Branches regularly during the whole turmoil-period.
Experience Survey: The researcher was involved with direct talks with many
capital market specialists on a regular basis in order to gain a hands-on idea about the recent crisis situation.
Questionnaire Survey: The researcher had direct talks with many investors
(both retail and Institutional) and a questionnaire was filled by them in order to judge their thoughts on the market as well as their knowledge and awareness about the market functions.
[Population Size: 3365225 (As on 25 January, 2011), Confidence Level: 95%, Sample Size: 54, Possible Percentage of Sample Picking a Particular Answer: 50%, Confidence Interval: 13.34 persons]
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Disguised Interviews: While talking with investors, sensitive to talk about
the capital market issues directly, disguised questions were used and the questionnaire was filled later based on the answers of those respondents.
2.1 Limitations of the study
As the topic is highly sensitive in legal terms, many data could not be collected by the intern that could have made the report a lot more precise and informative.
The questionnaire survey is regionally biased because it focuses only on the investors who are operating from Chittagong. As there were regular ferocious demonstrations ongoing around the brokerage houses in Dhaka during the time of the research, the intern could not manage to reach investors operating from Dhaka due to safety reasons.
There is high degree of variations in the available market statistics produced by different sources which often put the intern in a dilemma on determining the level of authenticity of the data collected.
The capital market being an extremely dynamic one, it was often hard for the intern to have important respondents spare their time to have talks with her.
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3.0 POSSIBLE REASONS
3.1 Summary of the Observations and Findings
o The share market bubble was created during 2003-04 as a consequence of low bank interest rates prevailing at that time. o During late 2006-07, private banks went for an aggressive race of grabbing higher market shares by offering low interest rates associated with loan-giving with less covenants. Due to easy availability of littlecovenanted loans, people started to invest in the capital market as the
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 15 only source of making profitable investments offering quick and high returns. [This supports the reasons of the 2006-07 rise in Figure 1Declining Interest Rates>>Increasing Money Flow from Banks>>Rising Inflation] o The government’s decision to let the corrupt whiten their black money was another stimulator in fueling the market bubble. [This supports the reasons of the fall starting from mid 2007-08 in Figure 1- As there was an anti-corruption drive going on, the venal found the capital market as the best place for hiding their illegal earnings easily. As the money flow from banks did not increase (in fact deposits at banks highly increased that time as the dishonest started opening fake bank accounts in their kith and kin’s names in order to hide their actual wealth) the inflation rates started to drop as people had more wealth and could offer lower prices for their tradable commodities. o The actual bubble was created since early 2007. The data series of the market turnover compared to those of market capitalization clearly signals the shift from a buyer dominated market to a market with sellers having stronger bargaining power. It’s obvious that a planned game was being played by some investors who were not only intelligent but also they had thorough concepts of the rules and regulations related to the market which helped them earn abnormal profits without breaking any law. Again, high numbers of BO accounts were being opened at that time as people ran for quick gains in the rising market. The continuous injection of small funds potentially hid the disbursements of large amounts of money from the market by the manipulators as the disbursements were done carefully and stage by stage making it visibly unnoticed unless statistics were examined cautiously on a regular day-to-day basis. As a last note, we can say that the bubble created in 2004 was being vigorously fueled since 2007 and the recent market crash was nothing but only due to the imposition of many rules within a short span of time. Had the rules been coming in a row rather than coming at once, the market bubble would not have
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 16 busted rather the air of the bubble would have come out slowly resulting a gradual and tolerable drop in the indexes.
3.2 Illustration of the Findings- Reasons Behind the Crisis
3.2.1 Growing number of new retail investors injecting fresh funds into the market associated with rapid withdrawal of funds by local and foreign investors in order to realize capital gains
The number of BO Accountholders increased tremendously making the figure reach to as many as 3,365,225 (as on 25 January, 2011).1 The new entrants injected fresh funds to the market and the market experienced a huge buying spree from them during last few years. In this regard, the most interesting fact is that- most of the investors had the idea (because of constant SEC reminders) that what they were buying were not worth the price, but they still kept on buying because they had the notion that they will be able to sell it to someone else at an even higher price (concept of the Greater Fool Theory2 prevails here). On the other hand, seeing the index rise higher and higher, many investors started realizing their profits and took their money out of the market gradually. These actions fueled the market bubble with very much “less than anticipated” money inside it making it inevitable for a burst to occur. The Centre for Policy Dialogue describes this huge inflow of new investors, who started participating vigorously in the capital market while being literally unfamiliar with the market activities, as participants of the 'Keynesian Beauty Contest3'4indeed a strong colorful term which is highly applicable in this case.
As cited on http://www.cdbl.com.bd/- accessed on 26 January, 2011
Buying something not because you believe that it is worth the price, but rather because you believe that you will be able to sell it to someone else at an even higher price.- As cited on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory- accessed on 26 January, 2011
3 Keynesian beauty contest is a concept developed by John Maynard Keynes. Keynes described the action of rational agents in a market using an analogy based on a fictional newspaper contest, in which entrants are asked to choose a set of six faces from photographs of women that are the "most beautiful". Those who picked the most popular face are then eligible for a prize. Keynes believed that similar behavior was at work within the stock market. This would have people pricing shares not based on what they think their fundamental value is, but rather on what they think everyone else thinks their value is, or what everybody else would predict the average assessment of value is.- as on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest- accessed on 23 February, 2011
http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/more.php?news_id=122045- accessed on 23 February, 2011
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3.2.2 Institutional investors were reluctant to invest in the market since last few months5
It was seen from the market trend that the institutional investors were less in a buying mood from the last few months. This appeared that they were waiting to see the market direction and were planning ahead. Again, there might be another reason- because of the expensive money-market, the institutional investors were concentrating more on managing their own liquidity which made them less interested to invest in the capital market. The Bangladesh Bank Directive for industrial loan diversion also fueled the disinterest as well as the sale pressure from the institutions. Commercial banks also joined the rally of withdrawing money from the market as they needed to buy more dollars at higher prices in order to pay for the high import bills.
3.2.3 High investment withdrawal by commercial banks and NBFIs due to Bangladesh Bank Directive to lower their capital market exposure below 10% of their total liability6
According to the market research, this was the topmost reason behind the present capital market crisis. As the banks found the capital market a very much lucrative source of making money, they invested a huge portion of their deposit liabilities into the capital market. That is why, when the Bangladesh Bank Directive came to minimize the exposure into the capital market, the banks went for a huge selling spree within a really short period. Bangladesh Bank kept silence when banks and financial institutions were vigorously investing in securities leading to an aggregate investment of around Tk 250 billion (25,000 crores) in the stock market by the end of 2010. Accordingly, this overdemand caused the over-heating of the market and suddenly, when BB enforced all types of restrictions at a time, a fund-crunch was created in the market which ultimately led to the present crisis situation.7
http://rashedchittagong.blogspot.com/2011/01/market-volatility-affects-small.html- accessed on 10 February, 2011 6 http://rashedchittagong.blogspot.com/2011/01/market-volatility-affects-small.html- accessed on 10 February, 2011 7 http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/more.php?news_id=123668- accessed on 23 February, 2011
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3.2.4 Extraction of money from the investors by the Multilevel Marketing (MLM) Companies
The lucrative promises of wealth and happiness associated with quick and easy profits lured many investors to go for the various schemes offered by the many MLMs (24 MLMs were operating in Bangladesh during 2006 while 17 others, claiming themselves as MLMs, were identified carrying out their operations8 and the figure has increased since then as more MLMs were emerging). This caused a high amount of investment withdrawal from the capital market as well as refrained many investors from making fresh investments as they chose to drive their funds towards the MLMs. **Two MLMs- “Speak Asia” and “Unipay2u” are under the scrutiny of the Bangladesh government since the present market crisis has emerged.
3.2.5 Manipulating the loopholes of stock market related rules and regulations through misusing inside information
Though the current market situation portrays a high possibility of market manipulation but visibly there is very little evidence that indicate who were behind that. The Bangladesh Government has set up a probe committee 9 which is hoped to disclose the true picture before all general market participants soon.
3.2.6 Frequent changes in decisions taken by SEC and Central Bank (BB)
Apart from the other reasons, economists are also blaming the frequent whimsical changes in policies (especially in share credit rules) made by SEC as well as some mistimed macroeconomic decisions from the Central Bank. 10
http://www.scribd.com/doc/38551786/Social-Sinario-of-MLM-in-Bangladesh- accessed on 1 March, 2011 http://theindependentbd.com/business/stockmarket/31192-stocks-crash-govt-may-cut-time-for-provecommittee.html- accessed on 27 January, 2011 10 http://gurumia.com/2011/01/24/economists-put-regulators-on-the-rack/- accessed on 22 February, 2011
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3.2.7 BB measures (raising the CRR and SLR)
To strengthen the capital base of the banks operating in Bangladesh, BB raised the Cash Reserve Ratio and Statutory Liquidity Reserve Requirement by 0.5 percentage points. 11
3.2.8 Increasing Call Money Rate
The Monthly Weighted Average of Call Money Rate increased from 4.35% during April 2010 to 32.76% by 21 December, 2010.12 By December, 2010, the rate hit a height of 175%13 which discouraged the banks to go for interbank borrowings and made them withdraw huge portions of their investments from the capital market.
3.2.9 Spreading of various rumors among the retail investors
Majority of the Bangladeshi Retail Investors are rumor-driven and have a tendency to start hopping once learning about any new opportunity. Most of them pay so much concentration towards making moves to reap the benefits of any chance that they do not notice when their interest becomes their greed and eventually makes their every efforts fail.
11 12 13
http://bdnews24.com/details.php?id=181733&cid=2- accessed on 2 February, 2011 Economic Overview of Bangladesh, LBS Yearly Market Review, Issue 47, December 2010, Page-15 http://bdnews24.com/details.php?id=181733&cid=2- accessed on 2 February, 2011
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Undoubtedly all the points mentioned above have some contribution in making the indexes dive deep in such a short span of time (e.g. the DGEN dropped from 8723.18 points14 at December 01, 2010 to 5,800.94 points 15 by February 24, 2011). But if we look from a broader perspective, we can easily find out the main cause of this crisis deeply rooted during the period 2007-08. To get an even clearer view, we could analyze the inflation rates keeping the base at 2005-06. During 2005-06 and 2006-07, the inflation rates were 7.16% and 7.20% respectively which eventually during jumped to 9.94% a 2007-08 following
1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0
20 00 20 01 01 -0 20 2 02 20 -03 03 20 -04 04 20 05 05 20 -06 06 20 07 07 20 -08 08 20 09 09 -1 0
Figure 1: Rate of Inflation (%)
sharp drop to 6.66% during the following period 2008-09. The rate again went up to 7.61% by 2009-10. When we put drop dashes all these data by in the following line graph, the steep surrounded inevitably brown to refers
Figure2: Weighted Avg. Bank Interest Rates
something which is not natural at all.16 [It can be argued that during 2007-08, the world inflation might had been much higher as well but according to the data provided by a wellrecognized not-for-profit international statistical agency,
Statistical Snapshot of DSE Market, LBS Yearly Market Review, Issue 47, December 2010, Page-20 Data collected through Market Observation 16 Economic Overview of Bangladesh- Statistical Review, LBS Yearly Market Review, Issue 47, December 2010, Page15, http://www.dsebd.org/dse_nrb_pro_usa_2010.pdf- accessed on 27 February, 2011, and Key Economic DataCountry Profile-DSE Monthly Review, Vol. 25, No 12, Page- 61
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 21 it was seen that at that time, the world inflation was experiencing one among its lowest levels (2.85% in US17- see Chart-118) seen in the past decade. So, it can be said that it was the internal stimulators which were behind the abnormal movement of the inflation rates in Bangladesh.] From the theories, we know that a high inflation is always associated with low bank rates. To examine the validity of this point, if we review the interest rates of previous years, we could see that interest rates (both for deposits and loans) were at a declining trend from late 2003 and experienced the lowest points throughout year 2004 (See Figure 2). 19 This decline motivated the mass to withdraw their savings from the banks to invest in the capital market as well as stimulated more loan disbursements which enabled people to make more capital market investments.
Figure 3: Market Capitalization and Issued Capital
Chart 1: US Inflation Rates (1990-Jan 2011)
100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 5 9 9 1 6 9 9 1 7 9 9 1 8 9 9 1 9 9 9 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 3 0 0 2 4 0 0 2 5 0 0 2 6 0 0 2 7 0 0 2 8 0 0 2 Is uedCa l (Crore T .) s pita k Ma et Ca liz tion(Cror T .) rk pita a e k
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp- accessed on 3 April, 2011. http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Annual_Inflation/annual_inflation_chart.htm- accessed on 4 April, 2011 19 Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 22 This notion could be justified if we see the market capitalization line (Figure 4) which shows a sudden sharp rise to Tk. 22492.30 crore from Tk. 9758.70 crore (a Tk. 12733.6 crore, 130.48% increase) within one year (from 2003 to 2004) while the Total Issued Capital rose only by Tk. 347.7 crore (from Tk. 4605.5 crore to Tk. 4953.20 crore). 20 But again, the large difference between the increase in Total Issued Capital and Market Capitalization could be attributed to the release of a huge amount of IPOs. The highest public offers during the six-year period, 2000-2006, was made in 2003 (the total public offers
25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0
F ure-4: Mag ig nifiedViewofF ure ig -3
Is uedCa l s pita (Crore T k.) Ma rket Ca liz tion pita a (Crore T k.)
of 14 IPOs, while only 3 IPOs followed in the next year, 2004. As these IPOs were sold in the secondary market at much
higher prices (due to high demand), it resulted in a dramatic rise in Market Capitalization from year 2003 to 2004. Though this is a normal event, but there is no denying the fact that this was the point where the market bubble was initially created. Again, Figure 3 depicts the fact that the market capitalization rose by Tk. 43058.2 crore (a 133.16% increase) from Tk. 32336.80 in 2006 to Tk. 75395 crore in 2007. People had quite a lot of money at hand that time due to the low interest rates (See Figure 2) offered by the banks which prompted them to withdraw their deposits as well as due to the high disbursements of Margin loans against equity by the merchant banks as they were having excessive cash at that point in time. This was also associated with the government permission to whiten Illegal Earnings through
Figure-5: Turnover to Market Capitalization 45.00%
40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2005 2006 2007 2008
http://mof.gov.bd/en/budget/er/2008/c5.pdf?phpMyAdmin=GqNisTr562C5oxdV%2CEruqlWwoM5- accessed on 24 February 2011 21 http://www.aims-bangladesh.com/special/AnnualReview2005.pdf- accessed on 27 February, 2011
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 23 capital market investments.22. The injection of fresh funds from these new sources drove the share-prices upward. All these facts are natural according to the capital market theories. But examining the Market Turnover line reveals the most unusual scenario of the period being analyzed. It is seen that the market experienced a sharp rise in Turnover-Market Capitalization ratio during 2007 (42.82 percent23) while the ratio was 20.13 percent in 2006. 24 Eventually the ratio made its way down to only 7.2 percent25 by the end of 2008. A “rising turnover-rising market capitalization” scenario usually indicates high buyer dominance whilst a “falling turnover-rising market capitalization” scenario bears the sign of a market where sellers possess stronger bargaining power. This indicates that, from the beginning of 2007, stocks were vigorously being accumulated (by manipulators) which was sold off at higher prices during the following years but this was so carefully done that it remained visibly unnoticed and the market bubble started to get even bigger day by day. If we try to recall, this was also a period of extreme political crisis after the 1990 Mass Movement. The country was in the hands of an unelected caretaker government (lasting from 13 January, 2007 to 29 December, 2008 26) and the political unrest spread over every part of the macro-economy making people assume the capital market as the safest source for making profitable investments. The most possible reason behind the notion could be the then-prevailing low GDP contribution of the capital market in the Bangladeshi economy (5.18 % during 200506, then rising straight to 19.55% during 2007-08 which continued during late 2010 reaching to 50.80% by December, 201027). Observing the scenario, some big players must had been making and implementing plans to reap the profits from this rising market and from the state of all affairs discussed above, evidently it seems that- of course there were some- who were playing the game from “behind the curtain” and the price-rising was not only due to the fresh fund injections but also due to the continual rolling of funds by some large investors who literally kept on buying in bulks and selling in parts. In this way, a huge amount of capital must have
http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/more.php?news_id=19789- accessed on 27 February, 2011 http://mof.gov.bd/en/budget/er/2008/c5.pdf?phpMyAdmin=GqNisTr562C5oxdV%2CEruqlWwoM5- accessed on February 15, 2011 24 http://gurumia.com/2009/12/31/bangladeshs-capital-market-sees-2009-as-year-of-landmark-achievements/accessed on April 8, 2011 25 Key Market Indicators 2006-2010, DSE Market Review, Vol. 25, No. 12, Page- 72 26 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caretaker_government_of_Bangladesh- accessed on 27 February, 2011 27 Economic Overview of Bangladesh- Statistical Review, LBS Yearly Market Review, Issue 47, December 2010, Page- 14
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 24 gone out of the market which remained visibly unnoticed because of the increasing number of retail investors entering the market most of whom depending on longterm investments which made the indexes look good when the real worth of stocks were substantially lower than what they seemed to be.
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4.0 POSSIBLE IMPACT MACROECONOMY
4.1 Decline in Government Turnover Tax Revenue
The ongoing turmoil has great impact over the Bangladeshi Macro-economy from many aspects. The most negative impact is seen on the Government Turnover Tax Revenue. As the government charges 0.015% tax on every transaction in the secondary market, the present turmoil would decrease the tax revenues greatly (for example, during the peak of the market on 2010, the government earned as much as Tk. 60.15 crore approximately which is feared to drop substantially during 2011).28
4.2 Decline in Government Tax Revenue from Dividends and Selling of Sponsor Shares
Again, a down-market will result in less dividend declaration which would again result in less earnings for the government from the capital market as cash dividends are supposed to provide 10% tax on the overall dividend value. Also, upon selling sponsor shares, directors were bound to give 10% gain tax to the government but when the market is down, nobody might take the suicidal steps to sell their sponsor shares at lower prices and thus the government will face a decline in the gain tax revenues.
Total Turnover in 2010=Tk. 4009913 mn---Source: DSE Monthly Review Vol. 25, No. 12, Page- 72
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4.3 Increasing Interest Rates
Another negative impact results from the increasing interest rates resulting from Bangladesh Bank’s movement to contain inflation rates29. The rising interest rates may result in more deposits to the banks. As the banks are directed to restrict their exposure in the capital market, they will surely look for other ways to pump the increasing funds and in the present situation of Bangladesh, where many people are starting to have quite a sustainable income growth, real estate would be the best option for making easy loan disbursements. This will surely fuel the real estate bubble as with time, there would be hardly any buyer to purchase the loan-financed houses and sellers would be on the rise as many of the owners would like to shred their houses in order to maintain a good standard of living with the growing global commodity price indexes.
4.4 Rise in Capital Market Indexes
But the positive side of the “impact-balance” would eventually be tilted towards the capital market direction. With the rise in the interest rates, cost of investment would rise which would in turn increase the capital market indexes as the investors will demand prices higher than their cost-prices and every time one investor will charge a higher price, the potential purchasing price for another investor will rise automatically. Again, a decline in the capital market means a decline in the wealth of the investors which in turn reduces their purchasing power. As reduction in purchasing power reduces the elastic demands only, this would reduce the import payments as importers would lose interest seeing the declining demand followed by the declining prices. The drop in the import payments will appreciate the value of Taka which will in turn reduce the “export revenues in local currency”. This will drive many firms to close or curtail their operations resulting in a rise in the level of unemployment as well as a decline in the rate of new job creation. Now this category of jobless people would try to find refuge in the capital market and the increase in the number of fresh investors willing to buy shares will raise the market index eventually.
Interest rates and Capital market indexes are often considered to be two sides of a coin. So, increase in interest rates signals decline in capital market and vice-versa.
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 27 Also, as an alternative scope for utilizing the access liquidity held by the banks (resulting from the government directive to limit banks’ exposure in capital market) they might select the losing firms for equity financing and as a result of the close monitoring, these firms would become firms of good worth and upon becoming public for generating more funds, they would act as a supplier of a huge volume of stocks with good fundamentals which eventually would improve the market structure for a longer period. To sum up, it can be said that the present market crisis will eventually lead to the establishment of a more sustainable capital market though with the costs caused by the decreasing government tax revenues at the beginning as well as with the potential costs caused by a possible crisis in the real estate sector.
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 28
Figure 6: Possible Impact on the Macro Economy
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I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 30
7.0 RELATED FINDINGS FROM
7.1 Age and Education Level of the Investors
Figure 8: Age of Investors Figure 9: Education Level of Investors Objective: Knowing the age would let us know about the risk tolerance capacity of the investors as well as this, along with the level of education, would let us have ideas on the by popular the
F ure8 Ag of Investors ig : e
61-80, 0 46-60, 25.93 31-45, 27.78 18-30, 44.44 18-30 31-45 46-60 61-80
purposes for capital market penetration investors. Findings: Most of the increasing number of fresh
investors are aged between 18 to 30 years. This might be an indication that due to increasing unemployment,
Fig 9: Eductaion Level of theInves ure tors
Refused to Reply, 20.37 None, 3.7 SSC/O Levels, 9.26 HSC/A Levels, 24.07 College/Uni versity Graduate, 42.59 None SSC/O Levels HSC/A Levels College/University Graduate Refused to Reply
the youth are finding refuge in the capital market. And the high percentage of graduate investors shown in Figure 9 indicates the high popularity of the capital market among the educated youth of Bangladesh (when the outcomes of both figures
are coincided for easy statistical measurement). Points at Support: Nowadays often the jobseekers complain that their university education is not worthy enough to guarantee them a job. This notion is also supported by many current employees who had to undergo many training sessions during the initial periods of their jobs as their past studies did not provide them with
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 31 the necessary know-how. On the other hand, many job providers also complain the same thing that they become bound to give costly trainings to almost all the new entrants as the universities fail to deliver job-suitable knowledge to the potential job-seekers. That is why, now-a-days, firms are concentrating more on employee retention rather than new recruitments while still not imposing extra burden to the employees as the wide use of IT acts as a helping hand for employees to be multitaskers. Comment: It is certain in this scenario that the average risk tolerance capacity of the investors will be quite low as the capital market is the only source of income for the majority of the investors. (The evidence is seen through the continual hostile demonstrations by the investors during the whole turmoil-period.30) What could be done: The government can take steps to create more scopes for employment by establishing more state-owned enterprises as well as encouragement should be given to the youth to go for newer businesses (like agro processing, establishing small scale rural electric grids etc.). Also, the universities should be guided to revise their course-structures to include more real world topics in the curriculum in order to produce competent and practiced pools of fresh jobseekers. As well as, universities should promote and offer more majors in the technical field (like textile engineering, leather engineering, etc.) as the demand in these fields are at a highly increasing trend nowadays.
http://www.demotix.com/news/550674/more-demonstrations-share-prices-fall- accessed on 20 March, 2011
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7.2 Occupation of the Investors
Figure 10: Occupation of the Investors Objective: Knowing the occupation would let us make out how seriously investments decisions are taken by the investors. Findings: investors students the secondary level. the for but A are from higher and
majority of the
F ure10: Occupation of theInves ig tors
Unem ployed and not Looking… 7.4 Student Retired 3.7 Em ployed Part Tim e Business Em ployed Full Tim e 0 14.81 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 18.52 33.33 Percentage 31.48
undergraduate Though highest was was business, it
observed by the intern that most of the people, basically unemployed, termed their investments in the capital market as their business not paying attention to the fact that the while asking, she was meaning a reliable business guaranteeing a minimum standard amount of periodic income by the option given in the questionnaire. Points at Support: The proper definition of business is not familiar to the mass in Bangladesh. That is why most of the unemployed individuals feel highly protected and financially secured when they start investing in the capital market out of the blue and feel happy to term themselves as businessmen. Comment: The high number of people depending only on the income coming from the capital market investments make the market even more volatile as they rush for quicker and bigger gains which eventually contributes in fuelling the market bubble even at a much higher extent. What could be done: More employment opportunities should be created as well as
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 33 people should be encouraged towards doing minimum profit-guaranteeing
businesses and to keep capital market investments as a side one.
7.3 Relation among Income, Concern and Diversification
Figure 11: Monthly Income of the Investors Figure12: Investors’ Concern about the Market Direction
F ure11 Monthly Incomeof theInves ig : tors
22.22 9.26 12.96 20.37 12.96 22.22 5000-10000 10001-20000 20001-50000 50001-10000 100000 or More Refuse to Reply
Figure 13: Level of Diversification Objective: the able After relating the the
three figures, we would be understand mindsets of the investorswhether they are in the
market for a sustainable profit or for windfall gains. Findings: Though among the persons, who gave definite replies, the highest percentage of peoples’ income was ranged between Tk. 200001 to Tk. 50000, but the number of persons earning less than Tk. 10000 per month
Refuse to Reply Not Concerned at All Not too Concerned Som ewhat Concerned VeryConcerned Incom e
F ure12: Inves ' Concern abou theMark ig tors t et D irection
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
quite high. Again, in Figure 12, we see that investors with the highest concern about the market are investors whose incomes are ranged from Tk. 50001 to
Tk. 100000. On the other hand, the highest level of diversification is seen with the investors whose incomes are close to Tk. 100000 or above.
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 34 Points at Support:
250 200 150 100 50 0 Com pany Deposits Bank Fixed Deposits
F ure13: Level of D ig ivers ification
Insurance Policies Governm ental Saving Schem es Mutual Fund Schem es
Regarding the level of diversification, it can be said that as people with higher their choices, with incomes have more options to make investment the them. level of This
diversification is higher
explanation is also applicable to find out the background behind the high amount of concern regarding the market direction shown by the highest income-earners. As they place higher amounts of money at stake, it is certain that they will show interests in the market direction more than others do. Again, investors, whose incomes are ranged between Tk. 5000 to Tk. 20000, show the least amount of concern regarding the market directions. In this range, two dominant groups of people are seen: One, investors, who are the only earning member of their family Two, students who invest in the market for maximizing their pocket-money and who are not required to contribute their incomes to their families The first group is less concerned because they usually invest in small scales and often, depend on their brokers for helping them in making their investment decisions. That is why they feel that they need not think about the market directions as they consider that they will not be able to make good moves anticipating the future market conditions as they roll very small amounts of capital compared to the whole market. Again, the second group shows fewer concerns because most of them trade in the capital market for mere practice and they feel that whichever direction the market goes, that becomes a scope of experience-gaining for them. Comment: The relations show that all investors are not investing in the market with homogenous profit motives. This is certainly a good sign but this is applicable for
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 35 big markets only, not for a small and emerging market like Bangladesh’s. What could be done: Moves should be taken to increase the supply of shares as well as to increase the number of investors in order to lighten the negative effects of having behaviorally heterogeneous investors in a small market.
7.4 Reasons behind the Turmoil
Figure 14: Reasons behind the Turmoil
Objective: This analysis would let us know about the investors’ perception regarding the stock market turmoil.
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 36 Findings: All the investors were common in the response that the crisis has occurred mainly due to the Bangladesh Bank directive to limit banks’ exposure in the capital market within 10% of their deposit liabilities. Comment: This was indeed the most important player behind the burst of the market bubble. But if seen from BB’s point of view, there might be some reasons behind the directive: 1. 2. 3. To contain inflation by restricting money flow in the economy. To channel more funds to the real sector. To protect the interest of the bank depositors.
Though all these points are valid but as a government organ, Bangladesh Bank should have acted more responsibly so that their acts of protecting bank depositors do not harm the interests of others as both the groups are the responsibility of the government. If only BB had expanded the exposure limitation period to a few more months, the stock market consequences would not have been that fragile. What could be done: All government organs must put a holistic view over the possible consequent impacts on every related sector in the economy before taking any decision in future.
7.5 Possible Healing Strategies
Figure 15: Healing Strategies
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Objective: The questions asked regarding the healing strategies were designed in
a way so as to understand the level of investors’ knowledge regarding the macro aspects of the capital market. Findings: It was good to see that most of the investors were able to provide thoughtful insights on the asked points. Comment: The Broadcasting Media should be thanked for farming these ideas into people’s minds. What could be done: The government is always expected to take responsible actions to control the crisis. But on the investors’ part, it would be the best complimentary act if they abide by the directions provided by the regulators (e.g. not taking margins for Z- category shares and
F ure1 Possible ig 5: H ealingS trateg ies
other similar directions). It feels good to assert that LBSL has always functioned according to the directives coming from the regulatory bodies which made them be in the safer side during the entire turmoil period.
16.67 12.96 53.7
1= government move to buy shares, 2=new issues by companies with low paid up capital, 3=inclusion of government project in stock market
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 38
At this instant, most of the capital market investors in Bangladesh are people who use it as their primary source of earnings. As they solely depend on the market for living, they unknowingly create a large syndicate which is practically invisible because of its widespread dimensions. When they transect within the syndicate, both buyers and sellers assume that they have made an intelligent transaction. These acts fuel the price bubble so slowly that the regulators miss this by identifying it as “rising investor confidence”. In this way, the bubble gets bigger
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 39 remaining unnoticed by the stakeholders leading to an inevitable explosion. As the market is going through corrections, to avoid this phenomenon in future, the regulators might forward some directions demanding the current and potential investors to have a source of guaranteed income and allowing them to utilize capital market as an extra source of earnings. Again, the market should encourage new shares of good fundamentals for making the market reach a stable level. Family-oriented big businesses should shake off the traditional fear of losing control once going public. Governmental motivations could be given in order to display them the benefits of being public as well as to remind them of the responsibility of the rich to the fellow countrymen. Also, foreign companies could be encouraged to raise capital from the market for creating safer diversification opportunities. In addition, all government organisms should act in a responsible way by running pilot projects before forwarding any new directive and seeing the effect of the decision from a holistic point of view so that a clear idea may be got regarding the overall macroeconomic impact. Moreover, as the Bangladeshi investors mostly depend on the media for stock market information, care should be taken during the selection of the media reporters so that their sometimes “immature” way of interpreting a usual matter do not create any panic among the mass. As an end note, the intern affirms that it was the efficiency of LBSL that made it continue standing like a pillar during the total period of disorder (the stable turnover being the evidence). Strong forecasting capability was the main key that helped them build the strategies long before the inception of the bear-run. LBSL is still making predictions and preparing ahead for performing sustainably in the coming days which clearly demonstrate the elegance of the officials.
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9.0 MARKET OBSERVATION: WHAT SHOULD
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 41
9.1 Effects of Bangladesh Fund
As a “Life-saving Support for an Ailing Market”32, the government announced a Tk. 5000 crore Mutual Fund, named “Bangladesh Fund”, early March, 2011.33 This declaration helped rebuild the investor-confidence and the bourses saw consecutive green movements following the assertion. But when IMF officials (while speaking with the media regarding their conditions of giving Bangladesh credits of $1 billion)
Chart 3: Possible Negative Impact of BGD Fund (regular)
expressed their doubts34 about the fund after assuming the consequences of the potential disasters that might result from its implementation, the investors again dragged down the indexes out of panic. According to of IMF opinion, Fund the is
going to pose added risks to its sponsors if not managed carefully. Though they did not mention how the negative effect would occur but from popular understanding, we can draw two impact-charts justifying the IMF suspicions. The effects shown in Chart 3 are the natural effects that will occur if the fund is not managed properly. If the fund managers recklessly invest in a particular rising stock, it will surely be proved as a suicidal approach for the fund as well as the sponsors. To prevent this, the Bangladesh Fund managers might allocate the investment in the following way.
As cited in http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/more.php?news_id=130491&date=2011-03-26- accessed on March 29, 2011 33 Sponsors: ICB Tk 500 crore, Sonali Bank Tk 200 crore, Janata Bank Tk 200 crore, Rupali Bank Tk 100 crore, Bangladesh Development Bank Ltd (BDBL) Tk 100 crore and Shadharan Bima Corporation Tk 100 crore,. Agrani Bank will sponsor Tk 250 crore and Jiban Bima Corporation Tk 50 crore but they are yet to disburse their shares of the fund.- as cited in http://www.hawker.com.bd/news_details.php? news_id=128145&val_lan=1&news_category_categorysearch=14- accessed on March 29, 2011 34 http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=179387- accessed on March 28, 2011
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Maximum Limit of Exposure Based on the Total Value of Capital at Current Market Prices
Maximum Limit of Exposure in a Particular Stock Under a Particular Category 0.1%= Tk. 3.75 crore 2%=Tk. 1 Crore 0% 5%= Tk. 25 crore 20%= Tk. 20 crore
A B Z Mutual Funds Category N Shares
75%= Tk. 3750 crore 1%= Tk. 50 crore 0% 10%= Tk. 500 crore 2%= Tk. 100 crore (but
fundamentals should be checked before making any decision regarding shares of this category)
IPOs Government Tbills, Various Government Schemes, Government Project Financing, etc. Cash
5%=Tk. 250 crore 5%=Tk. 250 crore
100%= Tk. 250 crore 100%= Tk. 250 crore
4%=Tk. 200 crore
100%= Tk. 200 crore
This is helpful for countering the natural negative effects only but another phenomenon may rise to prevent which, strong surveillance by the regulators (long before the inception of the fund) is necessary. As Bangladesh is a country where to downgrade someone in politics, anti-parties can stoop into any level. Thus the second kind of impact could rise in the following way:
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 43
Chart 4: Possible Negative Impact of BGD Fund (manipulated)
To prevent this, strong inspection along with some investment guiding principles are needed to be followed by the regulatory bodies as well as the sponsors of the fund. Only then, the fund would be able to serve its purpose of making the market move toward a sustainable steady point.
9.2 Effects of Demutualization
The decision of demutualization of the country’s premier bourse was taken on February 235. This is regarded as the most effective step to prevent the possible illegal and unethical practices by the exchange management. As it turns the exchanges into public companies, it is expected to provide unbiased investor friendly services since the management gets separated from the shareholders. Morsy and Rwegasira (2010) have identified the benefits of demutualization in their study titled “An Empirical Investigation of the Demutualization Impact” published on the 40th issue of the International Research Journal of Finance and Economics. Both
http://www.newstoday.com.bd/index.php?option=details&news_id=19888&date=2011-02-11- accessed on 2 April, 2011
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 44 the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test36 and the Proportion Tests were used by them to figure out significant increases in the following parameters:
9.2.1 Total number of listed companies
Demutualization fuels increased investor confidence in the market which assures the private firms of getting good value in the stock market. Thus more companies bring more supplies and stimulate more transaction. The increased number of transactions gives brokerage houses the opportunity to generate more fees revenue as well as brings more turnover taxes to the government along with the increased enlistment fees.
9.2.2 Domestic market capitalization
Increasing Market Prices motivate people to invest more and thus transaction increases resulting in more brokerage fees and Govt. Turnover tax revenues.
9.2.3 New capital raised by shares
The increased supply through RPOs results in more turnovers and in turn, more brokerage fees and more govt. turnover tax revenues, as well as more RPO Issuing Fees revenues earned by the government.
9.2.4 Value of Transaction
Increased value of transaction increases the percentage revenues of the brokerage houses as well as that of the government.
9.2.5 Turnover velocity
The increased velocity of turnovers increases the turnover fees earning velocity for both brokerage houses and the government.
9.2.6 Market concentration of the largest companies
Demutualization increases the market concentration of the best shares causing decreased transaction of bad shares which results in a decrease in the supply of them and thus, improves the quality of the market.
Named after Frank Wilcoxon, the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test is a non-parametric statistical hypothesis test used when comparing two related samples or repeated measurements on a single sample to assess whether their population means differ. –as on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilcoxon_signed-rank_test- accessed on 3 April, 2011
I n t e r n s h i p P a p e r - S p r i n g 2 0 1 1 | 45
9.3 Report of the Probe Committee
On April 30, 2011, the probe committee’s report was made public. According to their findings, a total of Tk. 20000 crore was swindled of which, Tk. 15000 crore was siphoned out of the country. Following these, the intern highlights some more points to ponder: o The probe committee identified some manipulators who they suspect to have “used” the loopholes of the governmental regulations in order to make abnormal gains. This proves the inefficiency of Bangladeshi Laws a maximum of which are just the same as they were during the British period making them highly inconsistent with the modern age. o The committee identified some manipulators who they suspect to have “violated” the governmental regulations. But it is a matter of concern that the government is going to remove their names before making the report public. This proves serious lack of courage borne by the country leaders and indicates a weak governmental system which can be easily influenced by outsiders whenever there rises a solemn issue like this. Thus, it is the laws which need to be tailored at first in order to prevent this kind of catastrophe in future. Also, the country leaders must show more commitment to their assigned works and, for the sake of the countrymen, should not fear any outside threats no matter what happens. Nonetheless, they must ensure that nobody in their personal contacts could reap any illegal benefit by misusing the influence of their political identities.
9.4 A Beginner’s Toolkit
As the market is going through price corrections, this is the right time for beginning stock market investments. The following process is developed by the intern as a helping kit for the beginners to make good investment choices:
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This portion was published in the Financial Express on 30 March, 2011http://www.thefinancialexpressbd.com/more.php?news_id=130815
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