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1063: 20.2.4, 20.2.7; Pg. 1082: 20.4.3, 20.4.4, 20.4.6, 20.4.7, 20.4.10, 20.4.15; Pg. 1094: 20.6.3a-c, 20.6.5, 20.6.6, For 589 Students only: 20.6.14 1. The running track in a stadium is 1 km long. Two runners start on it at the same time. The speed of runner 1 is Xi (i=1,2). Suppose Xi ~ exp(λi) and that X1 and X2 are independent. The mean speed of runner 1 is 20 km/hr whereas that of runner 2 is 22 km/hr. What is the probability that runner 1 wins the race? Suppose customers arrive at a post office according to a Poisson process with λ=10 customers/hr. a) What is the expected number of customers who use the post office during an 8-hr day? b) What is the distribution of the number of customers served during an 8-hr day? c) What is the probability that no one arrives at the post office from 1:00pm to 1:06pm? Airlines are evaluated based on their punctuality. A flight is defined as being “on time” if it arrives within ten minutes of its scheduled arrival time. ORD is interested in tracking the timeliness of flights scheduled to arrive at 8am. Flights arrive at an average of 12 planes per 10 minutes, with exponentially distributed inter-arrival times. a) What is the probability that a flight will arrive “on time” (i.e., between 8am and 8:10am)? b) What is the probability that 12 flights will arrive in the next 10 minutes? c) Given that no flights arrived in the past 5 minutes, what is the probability that no planes will arrive in the next 5 minutes? d) What is the probability that of 15 flights scheduled to land at 8am, 10 of them will be “on time” (i.e., 10 flights will arrive between 8am and 8:10am)? e) Compute the mean and standard deviation of the average time between flight arrivals. 4. The service manager for Northwest Airlines is uncertain about the time required for the ground crew to turn an airplane around from the time it lands until it is ready to take off. She has been given information from the operations supervisor indicating that the times seem to range between 12 and 47 minutes. Without any further information, the service manager will apply a uniform distribution to the turnaround. a) What is the probability that it will take longer than 30 minutes to turnaround an airplane? b) Upon studying the turnaround time data the service manager believes that turnaround times are actually exponentially distributed with a mean time between

2.

3.

what is the probability that in a 10-minute period more calls will arrive than the system can handle? An Internet bank can process a maximum of 25 electronic transfers every minute during the busiest periods of the day.turnarounds of 20 minutes. during each 15-minute time period. what is the probability that the ground crew will be able to satisfy the schedule requirements? 5. find a) E[X] b) P{X=0} c) V[X] A study conducted at First City Bank shows that the average number of arrivals to the teller section of the bank per hour is 16. 10. The manager is interested in the probability that one or more customers will have to wait for service during the first 15 minutes the bank is open each morning. during the busiest periods of the day. then the bank’s computer system will become so overburdened that it will slow to the point that no electronic transfers can be handled. what is the probability that the system will be overwhelmed by requests? Assume that the process can be described using a Poisson distribution. a) Determine the probability that in a given 15-minute segment no customers will arrive at the ATM machine. the bank has three tellers available. This means that three customers can be served during each 15-minute segment. If it receives more transfer requests that this. b) What is the probability that fewer than four customers will arrive in a 30-minute segment? A new phone answering system installed by the North Carolina Power Company is capable of handling five calls every 10 minutes. a) What is the probability of 12 customers in one hour? b) Based on previous studies. Prior to installing the new system. Data indicate that the number of traffic accidents in Berkeley on a rainy day is a Poisson random variable with mean 9. at least 5 planes must be turned around every 40 minutes. If this incoming call distribution is what analysts think it is. Let X denote the number of traffic accidents tomorrow. company analysts determined that the incoming calls to the system are Poisson distributed with a mean equal to two every 10 minutes. the bank manager believes that the service time for each customer is quite constant at 15 minutes. Suppose you are traveling on business to a foreign country for the first time. However. 8. What is the probability a turnaround is between 12 and 47 minutes? c) In order to satisfy schedule requirements. requests for electronic transfers arrive at the rate of 170 per 10-minute period on average. the distribution for the number of arrivals is considered to be Poisson distributed. Arrivals at a bank ATM are distributed according to a Poisson distribution with a mean equal to three per 15 minutes. 7. Using the new information from part c. 9. If. you have been told that buses stop in front of your 6. You do not have a bus schedule or a watch with you. Suppose. whereas on a dry day it is a Poisson random variable with mean 3. If it will rain tomorrow with probability 0.6. . Further.

morning arrivals occur according to a Poisson distribution at a rate of ten patients per 30 minutes. what is the probability that a) you will have to wait for more than 10 minutes? b) you will only have to wait for 6 minutes or less? c) you will have to wait between 8 and 15 minutes? Questions from previous Quizzes: 1. Patient arrivals to a hospital Emergency Department vary according to the time of day. Twenty five percent of patients arrive during the afternoon. a) What is the probability the emergency department is empty? (5 points) b) On average how much time does a morning patient spend waiting for care? (5 points) c) On average how much time does a patient spend waiting for care? (10 points) . During the afternoon and evening patient care occurs according to exponential distributions with a rate of 15 patients per 30 minutes. During the morning patient care occurs according to an exponential distribution with a rate of 20 patients per 30 minutes. If you show up at the bus stop at a random moment during the day. (Total: 35 points) A hospital Emergency Department behaves like three M/M/1 queues depending on the time of day. Service times also depend on time of day. The rest of the patients arrive during the evening according to a Poisson distribution at a rate of 30 patients per 30 minutes.hotel every 20 minutes throughout the day. Afternoon arrivals occur according to a Poisson distribution at a rate of 15 patients per 30 minutes. Fifteen percent of patients arrive during the morning.

Assume each driver’s driving time is exponentially distributed and driver’s times are independent of each other. (Total: 25 points) Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso are in the hunt for the Formula One 2010 Title. a) What is the probability that Lewis Hamilton wins the race? (10 points) . How will this affect your answers to parts (a). and (e)? (5 points) 2.d) On average how many morning patients are waiting for care? (5 points) e) There is a new emergency department being built close to the hospital. Lewis Hamilton’s driving time is exponentially distributed with a rate of 180 miles per hour. Fernando Alonso’s driving time is exponentially distributed with a rate of 175 miles per hour. Each race a driver wins gets him closer to winning the prize for the season. and (e)? (5 points) f) The hospital emergency department is considering automating some of its processes. How will this affect your answers to parts (a). this will cut the service rate in half at all times of the day. (b). (b). it will cut the hospital’s emergency department arrival rate in half at all times of the day.

i.b) The British Grand Prix is 60 laps long and each lap is 3. What is the probability Lewis Hamilton takes longer than 90 seconds to complete the first lap? There are two methods for solving this problem. Complete using both methods.667 miles long. (10 points) .

Draw a picture to illustrate the relationship between the time to complete the third lap and the number of laps completed.ii. (5 points) .

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