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INTRODUCTION

With its roots in banking, the sub-prime mortgage crisis that commenced in the
United States in 2007 soon resonated in other sectors of its financial system, and
the economy, at large. It spread quickly to the developed economies in Europe,
including the United Kingdom, and Asia -with Japan becoming well affected. The
emerging economies were not isolated. A transmission channel of the global
financial crisis, which has been referred to as the “Globalised Synchronized
Slowdown” is the stock market SERE-EJEMBI, (2008). Around the world stock
market indicators started falling. The capital market, vis-à-vis the stock market, is a
channel through which national economies receive foreign capital flows that make
their tendency towards the global economy easy visible. Developments in the
market thus become a reflect ion of global financial development. The level of
responsiveness, however, depends on the level of development, exposure and
insulation of the domestic market from the vagaries of the international. In the case
of the Nigerian stock market, following initial relative insulation, the speed of
contagion and response was comparatively slower. However, the effects began to
manifest in the first quarter of 2008. All market indicators commenced a
downward spiral. Negative market growth ensued. The mono cultural dependency
of the Nigerian economy contributes to the exposure of the economy to global
financial crises

According to Al-Faki (2006), the capital market is a “network of specialized


financial institutions, series of mechanisms, processes and infrastructure that, in
various ways, facilitate the bringing together of suppliers and users of medium to
long term capital for investment in socio-economic developmental projects”. The
capital market is divided into the primary and the secondary market. The primary
market or the new issues market provides the avenue through which government
and corporate bodies raise fresh funds through the issuance of securities which is
subscribed to by the general public or a selected group of investors. The secondary
market provides an avenue for sale and purchase of existing securities. It also
accommodates external capital through foreign direct investment. Making it
expose to fluctuations in the foreign economies.

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Scope of study
This paper is focus on the impact of global financial crises on the Nigerian capital
market laying emphasis impact of foreign direct investment and the prices of crude
oil. This study also attempt to established the linkage between the Nigerian
economy and the rest of the world,

JUSTIFICATION OF STUDY
The issue of global financial crises has been given much attention since its
inception in the 4th quarter of 2011, many writers and researchers have contributed
enormously to this field try to find answers to questions ranging from the cause of
the crises to its impact on the economy of different, regions, country and sectors
within an economy.
In Nigeria the case is not an exception students, researchers, and other stakeholders
have make their contribution in this area.
Narrowing down to the scope of this study many people sere-ejembe , Ndi okereke
have made contribution in this field.
But many of this writing did not relate the variables in specifics, that is why I set
out to find out the changes brought about by global financial crises on some
economic activities and to relate this changes to the Nigerian capital market
STATEMENT OF PROBLEM
The policy error in the United States that caused Current Global Crisis started as a
‘financial crisis’ but now a ‘Global Economic Crisis. This led to a worldwide fall
in the prices or value of asset including shares of quoted companies also during
that period the prices of crude oil dropped, the price reached a record high of US$
147 per barrel (US$/b) in July 2008 on the back of a six-year commodity boom
cycle driven mostly by demand from developing countries. However, as of August
2008, oil prices plunged rapidly as demand from the Organization for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries came to a sudden halt and
recession loomed as the financial crisis severely Impacted the global economy
(IDS, 2008, p. 5 in ESCWA (2009)). In an attempt to curb falling prices, the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) introduced a series of cuts

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in output. At the time of writing, oil prices have begun to stabilize at levels ranging
in the mid US$ 40 per barrel and also there was withdrawal of investment from
foreign investors or huge capital outflow

In Nigeria — Africa's largest exporter of crude oil which amounts to 80 percent of


its earnings, the impact of the credit crunch has been enormous, the 3.1-trillion-
naira-budget is in deficit. illiquidity and Credit crunch leading to confidence crisis,
weak consumer demand, Sub-prime crisis of 2007 and breakdown of confidence in
the banking system, De-leveraging and banks inability to improve capital
adequacy, Possible protracted recession in the US and Europe with upturn
expected perhaps in 2010 and 2011, Declining real output growth—slowed
economic growth (threat of global recession), Weakened financial systems—
takeovers and bankruptcy, Loss of jobs, Loss of confidence in financial markets-
leading to inability to carry out their intermediation role in the economy, Stock
Market Crashes omyiuke (2010)

OBJECTIVE OF STUDY
The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of global financial crises
on the Nigerian capital market, other specific objectives include;
• To evaluate the impact of foreign direct investment outcome on the Nigerian
capital market
• To examine the influence economic crises on crude oil prices and to see how
this has affected the capital market
• To assess the extent to which Nigerian economy and capital market is
affected by the global economy

RESEARCH QUESTION

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• To what extent did the impact of foreign direct investment inflow and
outflow affect the Nigerian capital market? During the period of the global
financial crises
• How did the fluctuations of oil prices during the period of global financial
crises affect the economy of Nigeria putting in mind the dependency of the
economy on the product?
• What is the extent of contagion exposure of the Nigerian economy, to the
fluctuations of the rest of the world?

LITERATURE REVIEW
Financial crises
The term financial crisis is applied broadly to a variety of situations in which
some financial Institutions or assets suddenly lose a large part of their value. In the
19th and early 20th Centuries, many financial crises were associated with banking
panics, and many recessions Coincided with these panics. Other situations that are
often called financial crises include Stock market crashes and the bursting of other
financial bubbles, currency crises, and Sovereign defaults (Kindleberger and
Aliber, 2005, Laeven and Valencia, 2008 in Adamu, 2010). In the wake of the US
government bid to boost housing was a policy error that permitted sub-prime
clientele unrestricted access to mortgage finance. Combined with the thriving
derivatives market, the horizon for credit expansion widened to unprecedented
levels. The result was private over-borrowing accompanied by an internal debt
crisis. Perhaps one could justifiably fault the US government for failing to prevent
the sub-prime mortgage bubble bust. However, what could have been done is a
complex question, since the problem was not in liberalization as such, but
combined with the absence of effective regulation and supervision. Properly
enforced prudential limits on exposure could have helped mitigate the effects of
the over-ambitious and Excessive risk-taking, contain the defaults and limit the
spread. As long as capital flows and credit expansion grew unchecked, lending
expectedly spilt over from financing safe and productive investments to risky and
speculative assets. Reckless financial innovations included leveraging, short
selling, unsecured credit systems and swaps attributed.

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The loose monetary policy in the aftermath of September 11 2001 terrorist attack
incidents in the US, in the bid to forestall a depressed economy further
exacerbated. Agreeably, housing prices had trended upwards for ten consecutive
years, up to 2004, enticing speculators, fuelling and prolonging the farce.
Mortgagees perfected imprudent lending practices. Dove-tailing into the derivative
market, including securitization, sale and re-sale of issued and re-issued sub-prime
loans to secondary mortgage markets created a bubble that was sure to bust. After
mortgages booked sub-prime mortgages, they packaged them into Mortgage
Backed Securities (MBS) and sold them to institutions, central of which were the
US government Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and Federal
Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) now bankrupt. The intent was to
enable the banks to free up funds to further lend to more prospective homeowners.
Precisely, this singular action removed a constraint from the balance sheets of the
banks, made them less concerned about the credit growth, paths and risks, while
ensuring that, in addition, qualified borrowers were not stifled of mortgages.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac repackaged the loans and sold them to investors and
financial institutions around the world, who in turn repeated the securitization
along a chain; widening exposure and spreading the scope for contagion and
imminent collapse. In furtherance, some home owners, including the sub-prime,
enticed by the lure of the accelerating asset price appreciation, refinanced their
homes at lower rates, took out multiple (second, third, etc) mortgages against the
added value and expanded other consumer spending. Satisfaction from the
booming bubble was all-encompassing.
The financial crisis of 2007–2010 has led to renewed scrutiny and criticism of the
hypothesis. Market strategist Jeremy Grantham has stated flatly that the EMH is
responsible for the current financial crisis, claiming that belief in the hypothesis
caused financial leaders to have a "chronic underestimation of the dangers of asset
bubbles breaking”. Noted financial journalist Roger Lowenstein blasted the theory,
declaring "The upside of the current Great Recession is that it could drive a stake
through the heart of the academic nostrum known as the efficient-market
hypothesis."
At the International Organization of Securities Commissions annual conference,
held in June 2009, the hypothesis took center stage. Martin Wolf, the chief
economics commentator for the Financial Times, dismissed the hypothesis as being
a useless way to examine how markets function in reality. Paul McCauley,

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managing director of PIMCO, was less extreme in his criticism, saying that the
hypothesis had not failed, but was "seriously flawed" in its neglect of human
nature.
The financial crisis has led Richard Posner, a prominent judge, University of
Chicago law professor, and innovator in the field of Law and Economics, to back
away from the hypothesis and express some degree of belief in Keynesian
economics. Posner accused some of his 'Chicago School' colleagues of being
"asleep at the switch", saying that "the movement to deregulate the financial
industry went too far by exaggerating the resilience - the self healing powers - of
laissez-faire capitalism." Others, such as Fama himself, said that the hypothesis
held up well during the crisis and that the markets were a casualty of the recession,
not the cause of it.
In finance, the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets
are "informational efficient". That is, one cannot consistently achieve returns in
excess of average market returns on a risk-adjusted basis, given the information
publicly available at the time the investment is made.
There are three major versions of the hypothesis: "weak", "semi-strong", and
"strong". Weak EMH claims that prices on traded assets (e.g., stocks, bonds, or
property) already reflect all past publicly available information. Semi-strong EMH
claims both that prices reflect all publicly available information and that prices
instantly change to reflect new public information. Strong EMH additionally
claims that prices instantly reflect even hidden or "insider" information. There is
evidence for and against the weak and semi-strong EMHs, while there is powerful
evidence against strong EMH.

Genesis of the crises


The crisis was an outcome of the interplay between both macroeconomic and
microeconomic factors. From a macroeconomic perspective, the crisis has been
attributed to the persistence of global imbalances, excessively accommodative
monetary policy pursued in major advanced economies and lack of recognition of
asset prices in policy formulation. From a microeconomic perspective, the crisis
has been attributed to the rapid financial innovations without adequate regulation,
credit boom and the lowering of credit standards, inadequate corporate governance

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and inappropriate incentive system in the financial sector and overall lax oversight
of the financial system. Deepak, (2009)
Nigerian economy
Donwa P, Odiye J (2010) observed that Nigeria is economically weak due to
inadequate domestic economic capacity and social infrastructure needed to boost
the country’s productivity, growth and competitiveness. Secondly, the economy is
made weaker by mono cultural dependency and unfavorable terms of trade in its
export trade as well as excruciating debt and debt service burdens. And thirdly,
before 1986, economic regimes were regulated and the country pursued
expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in its development efforts (Obadan,
1998). These problems were exacerbated by political instability and corruption. As
a result, investment choices were distorted, which eroded the confidence especially
of foreign investors. Following the globalization trend, Nigeria has been
liberalizing its economy. But the real sectors have had to function under conditions
of unstable macroeconomic management, inadequate technology and credit
facilities. These have proved to be an obstacle to strengthening the productive
base, especially of agriculture and industry, in order to make them export-oriented.
Thus, in spite of the openness of the economy, external trade performance has not
been encouraging oil exports dominate Nigeria’s foreign trade, accounting for
more than 80 per cent of exports during the years under consideration. Food,
agricultural raw materials and manufactures accounted for only 1 per cent of total
export in 1990, but this fell to 0 per cent in 2000. In between that period, the
country never exported ores and metals (World Bank, 2002). As a mono cultural
exporter, over 80 percent of Nigeria’s exports is made up of crude petroleum. But
instability in the world oil market sometimes negatively affects oil exports, leading
in such circumstances to declines in foreign exchange earnings as is this partly
explains the country’s recourse to external funding in order to meet its
development challenges.

The contribution of the manufacturing sector to macroeconomic development


remained insignificant as the ever-promising sector had to contend with myriads of
challenges during the year leading to massive under-capacity utilization.
According to CBN, the estimated index of manufacturing production stood at 88.0
by June 2008 (1990=100), having dropped by 3.1% from the December 2007 level.
These challenges included late release of the 2008 budget, poor power supply,

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infrastructural bottlenecks (as shown by inadequate water supply, deplorable road
conditions), insecurity of lives and properties, high lending rates, multiple taxation
and levies, weak domestic demand coupled with influx and dumping of adulterated
foreign products into the country that are in most cases smuggled to mention just a
few. The deplorable state of infrastructure posed a major challenge in terms of
raising the cost of doing business in the country Onyiuke (2008)
Linkage with the world
UNECA, African Development Bank and African Development Fund (2008)
Ministerial Conference on the Financial Crisis had argued that with the
comparative shallowness of the financial sector of African economies, including
Nigeria's, and the illiquid capital markets, the system is weakly linked to the
International financial system. Total share of stock market capitalization stood at
1.81 per cent of global. Banks inactivity in the derivative market and varied
residual controls on capital accounts contributed to some insulation from severe
contagion effects, as witnessed in advanced economies. The Ministerial
Conference on the Financial Crisis (2008), then submitted that vulnerability,
nonetheless, came through some financial linkages, including the receipt of
approximately US$15.73 billion in portfolio flows in 2007. Portfolio flows were
then estimated to have declined to US$5.7 billion in 2008. Given the small size of
the market, even small declines would lead to appreciable volatility. Resonating of
the eruption of the global financial crisis, one issue that agitates with the crash in
the Nigerian stock market prices, in March 2008, is the subsequent plummeting of
other major indicators to date. Risk-averse institutional and individual foreign
investors commenced divestment, also to compensate for loss of investment in the
global markets. Local Investors then supported with panic disposal. The tightness
in the balance sheets of the deposit money banks (DMBs) and counter-party risk
assisted. Hitherto, particularly during the preceding three-year period, the Nigerian
market had been exceptionally bullish, with share prices soaring. It is worthy to
note, however, that not owing to the global financial crisis and the speculative
subprime mortgage bubbles and bust alone, other contributory factors lent support.
Some of these, namely, margin lending by the DMBs, stock price appreciation that
had no correlation with the fundamentals in the quoting companies and local
journal and that the same article is not being simultaneously submitted to any other
publication nor has it been published elsewhere.

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Foreign portfolio investment withdrawals and withholdings in order to service
financial problems at the foreign investors’ home, as well as prospects of reduced
FDI, are bound to affect investor confidence in the economic health of Nigeria.
Evidence on the foreign portfolio withdrawals shows that the total financial
inflows to Nigeria between 2007 and 2008 increased by 21%, while that between
2008 and 2009 is predicted to reduce by 38.6%. The adoption of a public–private
partnership (PPP) policy platform to implement huge investment plans such as oil
and gas (liquefied natural gas – LNG – projects), power plants, railways, housing
and roads, therefore, exposed the country more to FDI uncertainties and vagaries.
Akanbi, Adeyeye (2010)

Total financial inflows to Nigeria, 2007-2009 (US$m)

Measures Taken By the Federal Government to Tackle This Issue


• Presidential Steering Committee on Global Economic Crisis --- January 16,
2009

• Presidential Advisory Team on capital market set up (Aug. 2008) to


deliberate on measures to reverse the declining fortunes of the Nigerian
capital market.

• SEC, NSE and all capital market operators reduced fees by 50%.

• NSE reviewed trading rules and regulations.

• 1Per cent maximum downward limit on daily price movement and 5.0
percent on upward movement. This has been harmonized to 5 % either way
from end-October 2008.
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• SEC released guidelines/rules on market makers.

• Strict enforcement of NSE’s listing requirement with zero tolerance for


infractions.

• NSE de-listed 19 moribund companies.

• Rules on share buy-back have been released, with a limit of 15.0%.

Methodology

For the purpose of this research secondary data were used which are obtained from
statistical bulletin and other relevant publications, this data were presented in
tabular and graphical form to give a pictorial view in the variation of variable
under study.

Results and Analysis

The indicator which are relevant in the an analysis of Nigerian capital market are
all share index, market capitalization and volume of trading all this indicators were
sourced from CBN statistical bulletin presented and analyzed below, the revenue
derived by the federal government from different sources was also analyzed to see
it variation during the economic crises

1.0 All Share Index on the Nigerian Stock Exchange

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It can be seen from the graph above that the All share index of the Nigerian stock
exchange start falling in the second quarter of 2008 from its peak I march 2008
63,016.56 to 31,450.8 by December 2008, the all share index continue to
experience this decline throughout 2009, and the it can be seen from the graph that
the market is more stable in 2007

2.0 Annual market capitalization of the Nigerian stock exchange in (billions)


Government
Stocks/Securi Debt/Bon Equitie
Year ties ds s Total
2005 365.5 11.1 2,523.5 2,9
00.1
Yea Februar
2006 888.9 3.5 4,228.6 5,1 Septem Octobe Novemb Decemb
r January y March April May June July August ber r er er
21.0
2 2
200
2007
23,078. 21,953.
2,976.6
2 1,961.
17.01,564.
21,482
10,301. 13,294.
21,911 22,935. 25,873 24,35 24,08
5 3 5 0,682.4 7 .1 8 0 .0 64 24,635.9 .8 5.9 5.8
2008 2,529.9 2 45.52 26,98 9,563.0
200 23,679. 23,843. 2 6
3,301. 24,745 7.51 27,880
6,316. 33,09 32,643 32,63 33,18
6 42009 0 3,336.6
1,930.2 2 .7
108.5 1
4,992.0 .57,030.86.4 32,554.6 .7 2.5 9.3

6 4 5
200 36,784. 40,730. 4 7,124. 49,930 1,330. 53,021 50,291. 50,201 54,18 57,99
7 5 7 3,456.1 0 .2 5 .7 1 50,229.0 .8 9.9 0.2
5 5
200 54,189. 65,652. 63,016. 9,440. 58,929 5,949. 53,110 47,789. 36,325 33,02 31,45
8 92 38 56 9 .0 0 .9 2 46,216.1 .9 5.8 0.8
2 2
200 21,813. 23,377. 19,851. 1,491. 29,700 6,861. 25,286 23,009. 21,804 21,01 20,82
9 76 14 89 1 .2 6 .6 1 22,065.0 .7 0.3 7.2

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It can be depicted from the graph above that the annual market capitalization
recorded it highest peak in 2007 13,294.6and slipped down to 9,563.0 in 2008, and
also the equity share hit their peak in 2007 to reach 10,301.0 and drop to 4,992.0 in
2009

3.0 Nigerian stock exchange market capitalization equity only in (billions)

Yea Januar Februa Augu Septem Octob Decemb


r y ry March April May June July st ber er er

200 6,150. 7,383. 7,8 8,262. 7,819 8,047. 10,


7 4,976.3 5,510.2 0 6,745.5 1 17.9 8 .7 8,020.6 4 180.3
200 10,692. 12,503. 12,125 11,491. 11,614 10,920 10,640 9,744 7,969.
8 7 2 .9 3 .5 .3 .6 .5 9,836.9 1 6,957.5

From the graph above it can be seen that in 2007 the market capitalization
increases opening at 4,976.3 in January 2007 and it closed at 10,180.3 by
December but the reverse was experienced in 2008 the market opened high in
January with 10,692.7 and closes low at 6,957.5 by December

4.0 Transactions at the Nigerian stock exchange (millions)

years volume value

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2004 973,526.00 225,820.0

2005 1,021,966.60 262,935.8

2006 1,367,954.00 470,253.4

2007 2,615,020.00 1,076,020.4

2008 3,535,631.00 1,679,143.7

2009 1,739,365.00 685,716.2

The number of transaction can be effectively used to determine the confidence of


investors in the Nigerian stock exchange, due to the market crash in 2008 the
volume of trading reduced from 3,535,631.00 in 2008 to 1,739,365.00 in 2009

5.0 The
Summary Of
Federal
Government
Finance(billions)

200 200 200 200 200


4 5 6 7 8 2009
Tota 3,92 5,54 5,96 5,71 7,86 4,05
l 0,50 7,50 5,10 5,50 6,59 7,49
Fede 0.00 0.00 1.90 0.00 0.10 9.20
rally
Colle

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Reve
nue
3,
Oil 3,35 4,76 5,28 4,46 6,53 191,
Reve 4,80 2,40 7,56 2,95 0,63 938.
nue 0.00 0.00 6.90 0.00 0.10 00
Non-
Oil 565, 785, 677, 1,25 1,33 865,
Reve 700. 100. 535. 2,55 5,96 561.
nue 00 00 00 0.00 0.00 20

The graphs above shows the flow of federal government revenue collection
from different sources oil and non oil, both oil and non oil reached its peak in
2008 at 6,530,630.10 and 1,335,960.00 respectively but in 2009 the oil and non oil
revenue fall to 3,191,938.00 and 865,561.20 respectively

Recommendation
For experiences like the global financial crises, there is nothing any nation or
individual can do to immune himself from this effect completely, notwithstanding
the following recommendations will be helpful to mitigate the effect
• The government and other stake holders should provide basic infrastructure
so as to ensure an enabling environment that will attract foreign direct
investment and boost industrial development In Nigeria.
• The regulatory frame work guiding the Nigerian capital market should
frequently reviewed to ensure this rules always take into cognizance the
innovations of the modern information age.
• The regulator authority should carve niche to diversify the economy
• Emphasis should be placed on risk based supervision of the asset of
corporations in the economy

CONCLUSION

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The global financial crisis is already causing a considerable slowdown in most
developed countries. Governments around the world are trying to contain the crisis,
but many suggest the worst is not yet over. Stock markets are down more than 40%
from their recent highs. Investment banks have collapsed, rescue packages are
drawn up involving more than a trillion US dollars, and interest rates have been cut
around the world with US and Japan cutting theirs to all time low of 0.25% and
0.1% respectively (bbc.co.uk), in what looks like a coordinated response. With a
recession already in place in most developed countries, Nigeria and other
developing countries have been grossly affected there source of income have
reduced and outflow of FDI have increased making the economic conditions harsh
and unfavorable.

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