Bro King+ +Q4FY11+Earnings+Preview

I N D I A R ES E A RC H
R E S U LT S P R E V I E W 8 April 2011
4QFY11 Results Preview Straining for growth
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
4QFY11 RESULTS PREVIEW
8 APRIL 2011
Results Overview Sectors Automobiles Cement Financials FMCG & Retail Industrials Information Technology Media Metals Oil & Gas Pharmaceuticals Real Estate Shipping & Logistics Sugar Utilities & Industrials Miscellaneous Results Preview Summary Valuation Guide
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
8 APRIL 2011 | 2
Results overview
Straining for growth
The financial year has drawn to an end and the numbers roll out begins and being the year end results, the earnings season is expected to be a bit longer than usual. The first three months of the calendar year have been akin to a roller coaster rise for the stock markets and the impending earnings are thus expected to have a huge bearing on its ensuing course. Expectations from the companies under our coverage (ex-financials) convey a YoY growth of 24% and a QoQ growth of 16%. The traction is one of the highest in recent times. If one excludes the metals sector, the growth is a bit better at 25% YoY and 17% QoQ, respectively, leading us to believe that the metals sector still ails from a degree of uncertainty and unpredictability. However, if instead of metals, one excludes the Oil & Gas sector, then these figures are 20% YoY and 14% on a QoQ basis, leading us to believe that oil and gas sector despite all the associated problems, is relatively better off than what it was a year ago.
(INRm) Indices Sensex Nifty BSE 100 BSE 200 BSE 500 BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
Source: Antique, AceEquity
3QFY11 Net Sales 2,575,903 3,435,022 5,590,574 6,781,605 8,213,861 1,960,385 995,806 PBIDT 808,730 994,533 1,394,778 1,834,588 2,130,854 512,053 139,828 Net Profit 380,913 459,403 594,313 728,971 832,048 144,795 53,899 Net Sales 2,206,929 2,928,713 4,686,644 5,718,659 6,921,438 1,656,347 831,248
3QFY10 PBIDT 674,097 843,040 1,145,338 1,517,681 1,766,744 421,227 126,867 Net Profit 303,047 381,363 481,343 602,275 695,603 122,460 52,452 Net Sales 16.7 17.3 19.3 18.6 18.7 18.4 19.8
Chg YoY (%) PBIDT 20.0 18.0 21.8 20.9 20.6 21.6 10.2 Net Profit 25.7 20.5 23.5 21.0 19.6 18.2 2.8
(INRm) Sectoral Indices BSE Auto BSE Capital Goods BSE FMCG BSE Healthcare BSE IT BSE Metal BSE Oil Power BSE Realty
3QFY11 Net Sales 428,091 378,104 176,040 117,125 258,676 494,086 2,387,604 440,155 29,344 PBIDT 53,839 52,939 11,406 38,409 27,565 73,894 130,659 308,499 113,722 15,132 Net Profit 33,077 33,212 5,144 27,530 23,822 62,173 86,599 162,319 61,633 9,917 Net Sales 333,928 303,920 113,787 147,989 105,406 216,079 421,473 2,072,680 373,730 32,164
3QFY10 PBIDT 53,386 45,385 9,060 34,240 31,249 65,477 116,318 217,786 107,333 13,584 Net Profit 30,707 27,195 3,910 24,150 23,810 53,992 74,103 97,929 62,566 10,055 Net Sales 28.2 24.4 19.9 19.0 11.1 19.7 17.2 15.2 17.8 (8.8)
Chg YoY (%) PBIDT 0.8 16.6 25.9 12.2 (11.8) 12.9 12.3 41.7 6.0 11.4 Net Profit 7.7 22.1 31.5 14.0 0.0 15.2 16.9 65.8 (1.5) (1.4)
BSE Consumer Durables136,442
3QFY11 Net Interest Income BSE Bankex

3QFY10 Net Profit 118,714 Net Interest Income 218,562 Provisions & Contingencies 45,599 96,444 Net Profit Net Interest Income 37.3
Chg YoY (%) Provisions & Contingencies 37.9 23.1 Net Profit
Provisions & Contingencies 62,868
299,977
8 APRIL 2011 | 3
Results overview
The EBIDTA of companies under our coverage (ex financials) is expected to post a YoY and a QoQ growth of 12% and 15%, respectively. This clearly conveys that cost pressures in pivotal sectors are now beginning to nibble away at the operational metrics of India Inc. Excluding Oil & Gas, the growth is estimated to be markedly better at 17% (YoY)and 19% (QoQ) and underscores the fact that the oil and gas sector continues to drag the performance of corporate sector. The EBIDTA exhibits a much stronger improvement of 23% YoY and 15% QoQ, if one were to exclude two sectors i.e Metals and Oil & Gas. Thus buoyant commodity prices are now beginning to weight heavy on many sectors. On the net profits front, results of companies under our coverage (ex financials) are expected to be flat on a YoY basis and register a 13% growth QoQ. Once again, if one were to exclude the Oil & Gas and Metals sector, the growth is 21% and 15% on a YoY and QoQ basis respectively. The lower degree of growth in net profits vis a vis EBIDTA can also be attributed to increase in capital costs.
(INRm) Indices Sensex Nifty BSE 100 BSE 200 BSE 500 BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
3QFY11 Net Sales 2,575,903 3,435,022 5,590,574 6,781,605 8,213,861 1,960,385 995,806 PBIDT 808,730 994,533 1,394,778 1,834,588 2,130,854 512,053 139,828 Net Profit 380,913 459,403 594,313 728,971 832,048 144,795 53,899 Net Sales 2,439,370 3,254,310 5,243,372 6,358,765 7,735,098 1,852,032 978,278
2QFY11 PBIDT 744,190 933,056 1,366,498 1,776,158 2,052,581 462,620 131,025 Net Profit 350,533 439,415 622,888 874,951 979,744 137,640 54,886 Net Sales 5.6 5.6 6.6 6.6 6.2 5.9 1.8
Chg QoQ (%) PBIDT 8.7 6.6 2.1 3.3 3.8 10.7 6.7 Net Profit 8.7 4.5 (4.6) (16.7) (15.1) 5.2 (1.8)
(INRm) Sectoral Indices BSE Auto BSE Capital Goods BSE FMCG BSE Healthcare BSE IT BSE Metal BSE Oil Power BSE Realty
3QFY11 Net Sales 428,091 378,104 176,040 117,125 258,676 494,086 2,387,604 440,155 29,344 PBIDT 53,839 52,939 11,406 38,409 27,565 73,894 130,659 308,499 113,722 15,132 Net Profit 33,077 33,212 5,144 27,530 23,822 62,173 86,599 162,319 61,633 9,917 Net Sales 415,834 335,740 128,956 159,463 115,214 253,831 451,740 2,246,700 430,550 24,962
2QFY11 PBIDT 56,344 43,257 10,976 36,009 27,762 70,138 113,941 356,806 112,615 13,126 Net Profit 36,850 27,341 5,245 25,210 148,790 57,054 82,292 217,322 63,738 9,661 Net Sales 2.9 12.6 5.8 10.4 1.7 1.9 9.4 6.3 2.2 17.6
Chg QoQ (%) PBIDT (4.4) 22.4 3.9 6.7 (0.7) 5.4 14.7 (13.5) 1.0 15.3 Net Profit (10.2) 21.5 (1.9) 9.2 (84.0) 9.0 5.2 (25.3) (3.3) 2.6
BSE Consumer Durables136,442
3QFY11 Net Interest Income BSE Bankex

2QFY11 Net Profit 118,714 Net Interest Income 275837.9 Provisions & Contingencies Net Profit Net Interest Income 8.8
Chg QoQ (%) Provisions & Contingencies (7.7) Net Profit 13.3
Provisions & Contingencies 62,868
299,977
68129.6 104804.3
8 APRIL 2011 | 4
Expectations for 4QFY11 performance

Sales - change YoY (%)
Sugar Shipping and Logistics Real Estate Industrials & Infrastructure Metals Utilities Pharma FMCG & Retail Automobiles Information Technology Oil & Gas Financials Cement Media (10) 10 20 30 40 50 (40) (20) 20 40 60
Sales - change QoQ (%)

Sugar Pharma Real Estate Media FMCG & Retail Financials Information Technology Shipping and Logistics Metals Automobiles Cement Oil & Gas Utilities Industrials & Infrastructure
Source: Antique
EBITDA - change YoY (%)

Shipping and Logistics Sugar Metals Oil & Gas Cement Financials FMCG & Retail Utilities Pharma Automobiles Media Real Estate Information Technology Industrials & Infrastructure (10) 10 20 30 40
EBITDA - change QoQ (%)

Media FMCG & Retail Financials Real Estate Pharma Shipping and Logistics Utilities Oil & Gas Information Technology Automobiles Sugar Metals Cement Industrials & Infrastructure (20) 20 40 60 80 100 120
Source: Antique
Net profits - change YoY (%)

Sugar Shipping and Logistics Oil & Gas Metals Cement Utilities Pharma Information Technology Media FMCG & Retail Real Estate Financials Automobiles Industrials & Infrastructure (60) (40) (20) 20 40 60
Net profits - change QoQ (%)

Media FMCG & Retail Real Estate Oil & Gas Information Technology Utilities Financials Shipping and Logistics Automobiles Pharma Cement Sugar Metals Industrials & Infrastructure (50) 50 100 150
Source: Antique
Note: In case of financials net interest income, pre-provision profits and net income are considered instead of net sales, EBIDTA and net profit.
8 APRIL 2011 | 5
Sector Quarter Ending Automobiles Cement FMCG & Retail Industrials & Infrastructure IT Media Metals Oil & Gas Pharma Real Estate Shipping and Logistics Sugar Utilities Total Total Ex Metals & O&G Total Ex O&G
Source: Antique
EBITDA Margin (%) Mar-11 13.1 21.8 16.5 16.9 29.4 28.5 22.6 10.1 23.6 44.4 36.6 19.0 25.6 17.9 19.7 20.4 Mar-10 13.2 28.3 17.4 14.6 28.5 32.8 25.3 12.4 23.1 39.2 39.6 17.1 25.8 19.7 19.5 21.0 Dec-10 13.2 18.1 17.9 12.7 28.0 32.3 19.4 11.2 21.1 43.0 36.6 13.1 28.6 18.5 19.4 19.4 Mar-11 8.6 10.4 11.1 11.3 21.9 11.2 12.7 4.9 17.5 23.4 12.1 5.5 13.1 10.1 12.0 12.2
Net Profit Margin (%) Mar-10 7.4 14.7 11.5 8.8 23.3 13.6 17.4 7.6 18.5 20.8 19.7 9.3 14.4 11.8 11.9 13.3 Dec-10 8.5 10.0 12.3 7.4 22.1 14.8 10.6 6.0 13.6 23.2 11.5 3.4 15.0 8.9 11.9 11.6
On the performance front, the EBIDTA margin of the companies under our coverage (ex-financials) is expected to be around 17.9%, exhibiting a dip of 180bps and 70 bps on a YoY and QoQ basis respectively. However, if one excludes metals and Oil and Gas, the EBIDTA margins are conveying resilience as at 19.5 for the quarter, it is flat on both a YoY and QoQ basis. However, if one were to exclude only the Oil and Gas sector, then at 20.3%, there an increase of 90 bps on a QoQ basis, but a dip of 60 bps on a YoY basis. This leads us to believe that the most of the sectors other than metal and Oil and gas have been able to tackle the vagaries of raw material and other costing quite effectively and we could in for a stable round of performance from here on. It is pertinent to note that the EBIDTA margin has been maintained on back on a 22% increase in net sales of the companies under our coverage (ex-financial, ex-Oil and gas and ex-metals) on a YoY basis and 14% on a QoQ basis. It thus could be heralding the benefits of economies of scale as well as maturity of business models going forward. Financials under our coverage are expected to post a revenue growth of 29% on a YoY basis and 3% on a QoQ basis. However, on the net profit front, growth is expected to be much sharper at 33% on a YoY basis and 8% on a QoQ basis. The ruggedness of this sector can be construed as a barometer of the economic health and it is not surprising that the sector accounts for a large part of the market capitalisation at present. The largest increases in revenues on a QoQ basis is expected to be reported by Media, Cement and Financials. On a YoY basis the league table gets altered with Industrial& Infra, Oil & Gas and Utilities topping the list. The laggards would be Sugar, Shipping & Logistics and Real Estate on the YoY basis and Sugar, Pharma and real estate on a QoQ basis. On the EBIDTA front, the leaders would be Industrial& Infra, IT and Real Estate on a YoY basis while on a QoQ basis the list would consist of Industrials & Infra, Cement and Metals. Thus the Industrial & Infra sectors seems to be slowly getting its groove back. The laggards on this front on a YoY basis are Shipping and logistics, Sugar and metal while on a QoQ basis it is Media, FMCG & retail and Financials. Summing up, we can say that save for sectors like Metals, Sugar and Real estate, the revenues and EBIDTA growth trend is largely intact. The traction is expected to slow down a bit marginally in the coming quarters. However, Oil & gas sector continues to bog the overall metrics on account of its humongous scale and size and there is no respite in sight. Metals, another laggard could be set for a turn around in the coming quarters and that along with the across the board buoyancy should inject a dose of optimism in the markets, but in a slow and steady manner. Till then, we are of the opinion that the environment of staidness and tempered optimism will prevail in the market.
8 APRIL 2011 | 6
Automobiles
Same old story - Strong volumes Pressure on margins
+91 22 4031 3443 ashish.nigam@antiquelimited.com
Ashish Nigam
+91 22 4031 3411 kunal.jhaveri@antiquelimited.com

Company Quarter Ending Ashok Leyland Bajaj Auto Bosch Concor Escorts Exide Industries Hero Honda M&M Maruti Suzuki Tata Motors Total Mar-11 36,570 42,247 18,785 10,488 9,080 11,331 52,910 67,038 97,798 364,956 711,202 Sales Mar-10 29,390 33,995 15,804 9,505 6,756 10,280 40,926 53,046 82,808 289,778 Dec-10 22,272 41,771 17,556 9,711 8,377 10,491 51,182 61,211 93,261 316,852 Chg (%) YoY 24 24 19 10 34 10 29 26 18 26 24 QoQ 64 1 7 8 8 8 3 10 5 15 12 Mar-11 4,241 8,345 3,351 2,848 547 1,869 5,384 9,493 7,431 49,798 93,306 EBITDA Mar-10 3,784 7,771 2,896 2,201 661 2,152 6,820 8,492 9,673 31,354 75,805 Dec-10 1,660 8,493 1,810 2,807 438 1,591 5,331 9,238 7,335 44,886 83,588 Chg (%) YoY 12 7 16 29 (17) (13) (21) 12 (23) 59 23 QoQ 155 (2) 85 1 25 17 1 3 1 11 12 Mar-11 2,456 6,561 2,418 2,339 305 1,415 4,913 6,647 5,754 28,093 60,901 Net Profit Mar-10 2,227 5,287 2,026 1,727 415 1,345 5,988 5,739 6,566 10,786 42,104 Dec-10 434 6,671 2,105 2,285 255 1,244 4,290 6,172 5,652 24,571 53,678
Kunal Jhaveri
Chg (%) YoY 10 24 19 35 (27) 5 (18) 16 (12) 160 45 QoQ 466 (2) 15 2 19 14 15 8 2 14 13
572,289 632,685
Sector overview
The automobile sector witnessed a robust 4Q despite price hikes taken by most OEMs. Breaking down the quarter one month at a time - January dispatches were strong on account of low dealer inventory; February saw massive pre-buying before expectations of an excise duty roll-back in the budget; March dispatches, although slow at first, picked up momentum driven by strong corporate buying (to avail depreciation benefits), some pre-buying before the price hikes in April, dealer stocking to meet all the deliveries lined up for Gudi Padwa and higher discounts towards the year end - a typical March trait to close the fiscal year with a bang. On the margin front, the surge in commodity costs will be dampener. Steel, rubber, aluminum and lead prices have all been relentless during the quarter. Most OEMs have taken price increases during the quarter (to the tune of 0.5-2%) which will help offset these cost pressures partially. The silver lining is that retail sales have not been impacted by these price hikes. In case of MHCVs, dispatches have been strong post the emission norm change, which is an encouraging testimony that BS3 trucks have been well accepted in the market. The QoQ jump in volumes also bodes positively for operating leverage of CV companies. The ancillaries continue to benefit from the overall buoyancy in the industry, oblivious to the competitive intensity in most segments. We prefer the market leaders in this space (Exide and Bosch) on account of the strong pricing power that they enjoy. There is also scope for margin expansion for these companies as penetration into the lucrative after-markets increases. We expect Exide margins to improve sequentially as it benefits from price increases undertaken in February along with a marginal improvement in market mix. 4QFY11 - YoY volume growth (%)
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Eicher Hero Honda M&M Escorts Maruti Suzuki Bajaj Ashok Tata Auto Leyland Motors 23% 21% 21% 20% 30%
4QFY11 - QoQ volume growth (%)

70% 60% 50% 17% 15% 40% 13% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ashok Tata Eicher Leyland Motors
Source: Company, Antique
61%
27%
25% 8%
6%
4%
2%
0% Bajaj Auto
M&M Escorts Maruti Hero Suzuki Honda
8 APRIL 2011 | 7
EUR/GBP movement - sequentially favourable for Tata Motors

0.96 0.92 0.88 0.84 0.80 0.76 1QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 4QFY10 2QFY11 0.72 01-Jan-10 01-Apr-10 01-Jul-10 01-Oct-10 01-Jan-11 01-Apr-11
Source: Bloomberg, Antique
USD/GBP movement - sequentially unfavourable for Tata Motors

Average EUR/GBP 0.854 0.72 0.69 0.66 Average USD/GBP 0.641
Average EUR/GBP 0.862
Average USD/GBP 0.633
Average USD/GBP 0.623
Average EUR/GBP 0.887
0.63 0.60 0.57 1QFY11 2QFY11 4QFY10 3QFY11 4QFY11 0.54 01-Jan-10 01-Apr-10 01-Jul-10 01-Oct-10 01-Jan-11 01-Apr-11
YEN/INR movement - sequentially unfavourable for Maruti

0.60 0.56 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.40 01-Jan-10 01-Apr-10 01-Jul-10
Lead prices
3500 3250 3000 2750 Average Price $2387/t Average Price $2602/t
Average YEN/INR 0.519 Average YEN/INR 0.544 Average YEN/INR 0.550
Average Price $2211/t
2500 2250 2000 1750 1500
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
01-Oct-10 01-Jan-11 01-Apr-11
1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 4QFY10 1250 01-Jan-10 01-Apr-10 01-Jul-10 01-Oct-10 01-Jan-11 01-Apr-11
CRC steel prices

750 700 650 600 550 500 450 1QFY11 2QFY11 4QFY11 4QFY10 3QFY11 400 01-Jan-10 01-Apr-10 01-Jul-10 01-Oct-10 01-Jan-11 01-Apr-11
Rubber prices
260
Average Price EUR 597/t Average Price EUR 685/t
Average Price EUR 523/t
240 220 200 180 160 140 Average Price INR 141/Kg
Average Price INR 194/Kg
Average Price INR 225/Kg
3QFY11 1QFY11 2QFY11 4QFY10 4QFY11 120 01-Jan-10 01-Apr-10 01-Jul-10 01-Oct-10 01-Jan-11 01-Apr-11
Source: NCDEX, Antique
8 APRIL 2011 | 8
Cement
Price recovery to boost performance
+91 22 4031 3473 nirav.shah@antiquelimited.com
Nirav Shah
Company Quarter Ending ACC Ambuja Cement Shree Cement UltraTech Cement Total Mar-11 25,424 22,656 9,030 40,865 97,975
Sales Mar-10 22,762 19,902 9,440 19,225 71,330 Dec-10 22,277 17,885 7,804 37,409 85,374
Chg (%) YoY 12 14 (4) 113 37 QoQ 14 27 16 9 15 Mar-11 5,301 5,069 2,138 8,819 21,326
EBITDA Mar-10 6,552 6,227 3,255 4,158 20,192 Dec-10 3,403 3,140 1,583 7,334 15,461
Chg (%) YoY 19 (19) 34 (112) 6 QoQ 56 61 35 20 38 Mar-11 2,831 2,890 478 3,965 10,164
Net Profit Mar-10 3,929 4,421 (165) 2,285 10,470 Dec-10 2,489 2,510 334 3,190 8,523
Chg (%) YoY (28) (35) (390) 74 3 QoQ 14 15 43 24 19
UltraTech Cement
For 4QFY11, we expect UltraTech to post revenues of INR40.9bn. These numbers are post the merger of Samruddhi with UltraTech and hence not comparable on a YoY basis. We expect domestic blended despatches of 10.4mmt, up by 3.3% YoY on a comparable basis. Margins are expected to expand by 300bps QoQ to 22.7% as a result of recovery in cement prices. We expect EBIDTA/mt of INR845/mt resulting in operating profits of INR8.8bn. We estimate net profits of INR3.97bn resulting in an EPS of INR14.5.
ACC
ACC is expected to post revenues of INR25.4bn, an increase of 12% YoY in 1QCY11. This will be largely led by 12% rise in cement volumes to 6.2mmt and a 2% decline in realisations. On the back of strong recovery in cement prices on a QoQ basis, EBIDTA/mt is expected to increase to INR851 as against INR610 in 4QCY10. However, on a YoY basis, the same will be lower compared to INR1,179 in 1QCY10. Accordingly, operating profits should stand at INR5.3bn in 1QCY11. We expect net profits to decline by 26% YoY and increase by 16% QoQ to INR2.9bn.
Ambuja Cement
ACL's revenues in 1QCY11 are expected to increase by 14% YoY to INR22.7bn. This will be largely led by 6% rise in cement volumes to 5.7mmt and 7.5% improvement in realisations. Margins are expected to contract by 890bps to 22.4% as a result of higher operational costs. We expect EBIDTA/mt to fall to INR895/mt resulting in operating profits of INR5.1bn. Capital charges should surge by 51% to INR1.3bn on account of commissioning of clinker and grinding capacities in 1HCY10. We expect net profits to decline by 35% to INR2.9bn.
Shree Cement
SCL's revenues are expected to decline by 4% to INR9bn on account of lower cement sales and power realisations. On the volumes front, we expect the same to be lower by 5% to 2.6m mt. We expect the company to sell ~100m units of power in 4QFY11 against 77.8m units. We expect margins to contract by 1,080bps to 23.7% on account of lower profitability of the cement as well as power division. We expect the company to post net profits of INR478m as against a loss of INR165m in 4QFY10 (before extra-ordinary).
8 APRIL 2011 | 9
Financials
Another quarter of strong core operating performance
+91 22 4031 3442 alok.kapadia@antiquelimited.com
Alok Kapadia
+91 22 4031 3437 sunesh.khanna@antiquelimited.com +91 22 4031 3415 reetu.gandhi@antiquelimited.com

Company Quarter Ending Axis Bank Bajaj Auto Finance Bank of Baroda HDFC HDFC Bank ICICI Bank LIC Housing Fin State Bank Of India Shriram Transport Fin Union Bank of India Yes Bank Total Net Interest Income Mar-11 17,927 2,800 23,127 11,379 28,048 24,714 3,080 94,498 8,952 16,199 3,328 266,339 Mar-10 14,601 1,658 17,450 11,282 23,514 20,349 2,980 Dec-10 17,331 2,562 22,923 10,277 27,767 23,117 3,522 Chg (%) YoY 23 69 33 1 19 21 3 29 41 38 16 36 29 QoQ 3 9 1 11 1 7 (13) 1 4 7 0 3 Pre Provisioning Profits Mar-11 17,687 1,650 17,271 12,579 20,599 26,599 2,924 23,563 61,757 6,547 11,799 3,204 Mar-10 13,838 1,240 16,288 12,819 16,944 23,989 2,857 23,325 51,939 5,442 11,475 2,576 Dec-10 16,585 1,600 18,512 12,279 20,727 23,426 4,891 23,499 67,645 6,338 12,611 3,113 Chg (%) YoY 28 33 6 (2) 22 11 2 1 19 20 3 24 13 QoQ 7 3 (7) 2 (1) 14 (40) 0 (9) 3 (6) 3 (2) Mar-11 9,419 791 10,436 9,513 10,737 15,709 2,205 12,980 31,391 3,430 6,873 1,976 115,459 Net Income Mar-10 7,649 252 9,063 9,264 8,366 10,056 2,136 11,350 18,670 2,644 5,935 1,400 Dec-10 8,914 764 10,689 8,909 10,878 14,370 2,135 10,898 28,281 3,000 5,796 1,911
Sunesh Khanna
Reetu Gandhi
Chg (%) YoY 23 214 15 3 28 56 3 14 68 30 16 41 33 QoQ 6 3 (2) 7 (1) 9 3 19 11 14 19 3 8
Punjab National Bank 32,285
24,980 32,033 67,215 90,498 6,483 2,442 8,367 3,232 13,961 16,158 206,912 257,785
3 206,180
182,730 211,225
86,784 106,544
Banking sector
Robust headline earnings coupled with strong bottom line We expect banks and financials under our coverage universe to report strong earnings growth (28% YoY and 3% QoQ) driven by strong traction in credit growth (YTD system growth at 24.3% against RBI guidance of 20% FY11e), robust margins and low base effect in 4Q10 (especially for PSU banks.) In our coverage universe, we expect public sector banks to report a stronger earnings growth of 40% YoY as against 38% YoY for Private Banks, supported by the lower base effect in 4QFY10 for State Bank of India. However earnings progression for PSU banks excluding SBI is likely to remain at 26% YoY. Strong traction in credit growth with deposit growth picking up; CD ratio easing albeit at slower pace Headline systemic credit growth continues to remain robust with YTD growth at 24.3% YoY. On the deposits front, after a lackluster 9MFY11, systemic deposit growth has finally picked up (with YTD growth at 16.7%) as the banks have aggressively hiked deposit rates post December. As a result, deposit growth has outpaced (~7.1%) credit growth (5.9%) post December. Further CD ratio for the banks stands at 75% and incremental CD ratio for the banks has eased from a high of 110% to 97%. Margins to decline on sequential basis We believe NIMs for banks especially those with low CASA ratio and weak ALMs are likely to witness compression starting from 4Q onwards as deposit rates has spiked upwards by 150-300 across various maturities. Further, NIM moderation should be marginal in Q4FY11 as banks continue to benefit from lending rate hikes and faster asset re-pricing.Secondly continued liquidity tightness coupled with high volatility in wholesale borrowing costs is likely to intensify pressure on margins from 1QFY12 onwards. However, in period of high interest rate environment, trends in CASA market share remain a key monitorable on deposit front. Other income growth to remain muted Other income growth, excluding trading profits is likely to remain muted banks (Private at 15 % YoY and PSUs at 5% YoY) due to lack of treasury profits as the banks had booked trading profits last year. During the quarter, G-sec yields moved across the yield curve, more so at the shorter end (25bps) as against longer end (6bps). Since a large part of bank's investment book is in the HTM category - it is de-risked. Hence we do not expect banks to report any significant MTM losses.
8 APRIL 2011 | 10
Provisions towards pension liability for retired employees may throw some negative surprise Public sector banks have already started amortising for second pension liability over a period of 5years starting from 3QFY11. However recent guidelines issued by RBI during the quarter, requires bank's to completely provide for amount related to separated/ retired employees. Hence banks are required to provide full provisions towards retired employees in FY11 itself, while other liabilities (relating to second pension option and gratuity) for existing employees can be amortised over a period of five years. Therefore these upfront provisions could throw up some negative surprise in 4QFY11. Asset quality to remain stable Asset quality for most of the banks is likely to remain stable. We believe that, private sector banks are well placed in terms of asset quality and are likely to report lower loan provisioning since overall NPL formation (more so in retail) has shown signs of stability over the past few quarters, whereas PSU banks could be a little patchy. Higher slippages on account of migration to system-based recognition of NPLs remain a key risk on asset quality. We also believe that cash recoveries and up gradation are likely to pick up significantly from hereon, since slippages for the banks has peaked albeit at a higher level in the previous quarters (write-offs were aggressive over FY09 and FY10).Further, banks like Union Bank and SBI could positively surprise during the quarter with a fall in slippages, higher up gradation and recoveries.
Non banking financial companies

We expect NBFCs to report 20-25% earnings growth primarily driven by higher business volumes. We expect NIMs to shrink in the current scenario given the fact that wholesale rates have rallied in last quarter as the incremental borrowing cost at the shorter end of the yield curve has gone up by 300-400bps on back of extremely tight liquidity. There has also been delay in passing higher interest rates to customers, although most NBFCs have raised their lending rates, but the transmission will comes will a lag. We believe that strong demand of securitized assets by banks in the last quarter will support margins for 2HFY11 for companies like Shriram Transport Finance and Mahindra Finance. We expect the liquidity position to ease in April as it is generally a lean month we expect guidance on NIMs to be cautious as the impact of higher rates is yet to be reflected in the reported margins.
Credit growth
40,000 38,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 Apr-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 26 24 22
Deposit growth
52,000 50,000 17 48,000 46,000 16 15 42,000 40,000 Apr-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 14 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11
Deposit growth (YOY%) - RHS
18
20 18 16 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11

Credit growth (YOY%) - RHS
44,000
Total Bank Credit (INR bn) - LHS

Source: RBI, Antique
Total Deposit (INR bn) - LHS
8 APRIL 2011 | 11
FMCG & Retail

Input inflation to curb growth
+91 22 4031 3430 abhijeet@antiquelimited.com
Abhijeet Kundu
Company Quarter Ending Asian Paints Britannia Industries Colgate Palmolive Dabur India Godrej Consumer Hindustan Unilever ITC Jyothy Laboratories Kansai Nerolac Marico Nestle India Pantaloon Retail Titan Industries United Breweries United Spirits Total Mar-11 21,956 11,611 5,876 10,395 10,196 49,200 59,619 2,233 5,451 7,447 18,263 28,799 16,624 7,943 15,804 271,418
Sales Mar-10 18,768 9,303 5,166 8,488 5,092 43,158 50,538 1,898 4,238 6,023 14,798 20,576 13,112 5,734 12,521 Dec-10 20,996 10,800 5,582 10,800 9,804 50,270 54,535 1,484 5,601 8,177 16,710 27,586 19,546 6,096 15,920
Chg (%) YoY 17 25 14 22 100 14 18 18 29 24 23 40 27 39 26 24 QoQ 5 8 5 (4) 4 (2) 9 50 (3) (9) 9 4 (15) 30 (1) 3 Mar-11 3,408 661 1,524 1,891 1,788 5,027 17,933 340 618 839 3,634 2,477 1,557 868 2,325 44,891
EBITDA Mar-10 3,109 (116) 1,247 1,620 1,075 5,310 15,401 305 585 861 3,040 2,156 1,165 636 1,702 38,096 Dec-10 3,448 482 746 2,095 1,678 6,243 19,690 167 685 1,093 3,298 2,383 1,950 659 2,730 47,348
Chg (%) YoY 10 (671) 22 17 66 (5) 16 12 6 (2) 20 15 34 37 37 18 QoQ (1) 37 104 (10) 7 (19) (9) 103 (10) (23) 10 4 (20) 32 (15) (5) Mar-11 2,106 482 1,236 1,486 1,296 4,601 12,283 287 351 590 2,349 618 1,091 484 800 30,059
Net Profit Mar-10 1,898 129 1,034 1,331 918 4,225 10,282 171 331 594 1,971 559 778 344 714 25,278 Dec-10 2,202 373 662 1,541 1,188 5,870 13,891 169 416 776 2,217 472 1,408 298 1,020 32,503
Chg (%) YoY 11 274 20 12 41 9 19 68 6 (1) 19 11 40 41 12 19 QoQ (4) 29 87 (4) 9 (22) (12) 70 (16) (24) 6 31 (22) 62 (22) (8)
219,412 263,907
Input cost inflation to take toll on profits

The steep inflation in input cost is expected to have a broad-based impact on the profitability of consumer categories like food, home and personal care. Incremental pressure would be felt in the fabric care category with rising prices of key raw materials like LAB and Soda Ash. Average prices of LAB and Soda ash during 4QFY11 have soared by 13% YoY and 15% YoY, respectively. Further, Palm oil prices have risen sharply by 43% during 4QFY11. The trend in these key raw material prices shows a scenario which is similar to the one in April 2008-December 2008 period when input cost inflation impacted operating margins. In the discretionary space, paints companies would be impacted by the sharp volatility in crude oil prices and rising prices of titanium-dioxide (TiO2). Trend in LAB prices (INR/kg)
140 120 100 80 800 60 40 20 0 Apr-05 0 Apr-08 400 1200
Trend in Soda Ash prices (INR/50kg)

1600
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Source: Industry, Antique
8 APRIL 2011 | 12
Trend in prices of palm oil (MYR/t)

4500 3600 2700 1800 900 0 Apr-06
Higher prices of key raw materials had impacted HUL's margins during FY09
56 54 52 50 48 46 1QCY07 Impact of rise in prices of LAB, Soda ash and palm oil
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
4QCY07
3QFY09
1QFY10
4QFY10
3QFY11
HUL expected to witness better sales growth

We expect HUL to witness acceleration in sales growth during the quarter led by better growth primarily in soaps and detergents. However, the broad-based inflation in its key raw materials like LAB, soda ash and palm oil will offset the impact of the improvement in sales performance. We expect HUL to post a growth in sales of 14% during the quarter to INR49.2bn. However, EBITDA is expected to drop by 5% to INR5.03bn due to increase in raw material cost.
ITC to be the outperformer

In the current inflationary scenario, we expect ITC to be the clear outperformer backed by its addictive pricing power in cigarettes. We expect the company to witness further recovery in volume growth of cigarettes and continued lower losses in its other FMCG division.
8 APRIL 2011 | 13
Industrials
Strong earnings, inflows remain key
+91 22 4031 3441 abhineet@antiquelimited.com +91 22 4031 3418 mohit.kumar@antiquelimited.com
Abhineet Anand
Mohit Kumar
Company Quarter Ending ABB BGR Energy BHEL L&T Siemens Suzlon Tecpro Systems Total Mar-11 15,286 17,200 162,017 158,376 27,826 58,181 10,123
Sales Mar-10 14,559 16,598 135,591 133,749 22,261 61,220 7,418 Dec-10 20,506 12,511 84,052 113,227 25,381 44,330 4,620
Chg (%) YoY 5 4 19 18 25 (5) 36 15 QoQ (25) 37 93 40 10 31 119 47 Mar-11 1,146 1,978 35,443 24,131 3,617 7,642 2,025 75,982
EBITDA Mar-10 29 1,791 24,873 20,508 2,861 5,350 1,783 57,194 Dec-10 113 1,414 18,097 12,385 3,628 2,440 516 38,592
Chg (%) YoY 3,869 10 42 18 26 43 14 33 QoQ 914 40 96 95 (0) 213 293 97 Mar-11 779 1,204 25,968 16,186 2,416 3,053 1,162 50,769
Net Profit Mar-10 66 1,083 19,096 13,374 1,811 (1,970) 898 34,358 Dec-10 68 876 13,382 8,070 2,418 (2,540) 187 22,461
Chg (%) YoY 11 36 21 33 NM 30 48 QoQ 37 94 101 (0) NM 520 126 1,073 1,052
449,009 391,395 304,627
We expect our universe of Industrial companies to witness a revenue growth of 15% for the quarter which will translate into net profit growth of 6%. Excluding Suzlon (which we expect to report a loss), profit for the pack is expected to grow by 12% YoY (~10% QoQ). Overall, we are positive on the outlook of set of numbers from BHEL, Siemens, L&T and Tecpro Systems.
BHEL
We estimate company to record sales growth of 19% for the quarter (20% growth YoY) mainly driven by the strong order booking. At the end of 4QFY11, the company had an order book of ~INR1.6tn. Our EBITDA margin estimate is 22% for the quarter, an increase of 3.5% YoY. Net profit is estimated to be INR25.9bn - growth of 36% over 3QFY10. The order inflows for the company have been stagnant for the last three years. BHEL has guided for 10% increase in order inflow which will be key to stock performance.
L&T
L&T has reported a revenue growth of 21% in 9mFY11 and 40% in 3QFY11. We expect company to report a revenue growth of 20% for the quarter and 21% for the full year. The key number to be watched is order inflow in the quarter. We expect order inflow to be muted this quarter on account of delays in awarding of orders in power and infrastructure sectors (segment constitutes 37% and 32% of current order book). We expect company to report a net profit of INR16.2bn, a growth of 21% YoY.
BGR Energy
BGR Energy is expected to report sales and net profits of INR17.2bn and INR1.2bn, a YoY growth of ~4% and ~11% respectively. We expect revenue booking from the EPC project of Kalisindh and Mettur and BoP orders of Chandrapur and Marwa which are in advanced stages of execution. EBITDA margin for the quarter is expected to be 11.5% as against 10.8% in 4QFY10, similar to margins reported in the last three quarters. We expect order inflow to be low for the quarter as awarding of BoP and EPC orders for SEBs and NTPC have been postponed for 1QFY12.
Siemens
The revenue is expected to grow by 25% YoY to INR27.8 bn while PAT is expected to be INR2.4bn, a growth of 33% YoY. We expect company to report EBITDA and PAT margin of 13% and 8.7%, respectively.
8 APRIL 2011 | 14
ABB
The company has been reporting lower profitability for the last six-seven quarters on account of provisioning of ~INR1bn in the year. The profit margin was 3.4% in CY10 compared to 7.8% in CY09. However, the worst is behind and we expect company to start reporting healthy profit margin and growth in revenue going forward. We expect revenue to grow by 5% to INR15.2bn with a profit margin of 5.1% in the quarter (profit margin was 0.5% in 1QCY11).
Suzlon - a turnaround story?

Suzlon has been reporting losses for the last 7-8 quarters. We expect Suzlon to turn around and report a profit of INR3bn, a profit margin of 5.2% for the quarter. While estimated EBITDA is expected to grow to INR7.6bn by 43%. The improvement is expected on account of higher domestic booking and higher booking in subsidiary REPower. The company has raised USD150m through issue of FCCB. The company is expected to squeeze out the minority shareholders of REPower and delist it over the next year. This would help it to have absolute control on the company. Quarterly sale(MW) and orderbook(MW)
3,000 2,500 2,000 1,459 1,500 1,000 500 1QFY11 2QFY11 Sale - MW
Source: Antique
EBITDA and PAT(INRm)

2,578 8,000 2,378 6,000 4,000 2,000 (2,000) 650 (4,000) (6,000) (8,000)
1,551
207
361
461
3QFY11
4QFY11e
1QFY11 EBITDA(INRm)
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11e PAT
Order Book -MW
Depreciation
Interest
Tecpro Systems
We expect company to report a topline growth of INR10.1bn (+36% YoY), EBITDA of 2.0bn (14% YoY) and profit of INR1.2bn (30% YoY). We have estimated 20% EBITDA margin for the quarter.
8 APRIL 2011 | 15
Information Technology
Positive on Infosys, TCS; Cautious on Wipro
+91 22 4031 3427 sandip.agarwal@antiquelimited.com
Sandip Agarwal
Company Quarter Ending Infosys TCS Wipro CMC KPIT Persistent Total Mar-11 74,742 102,440 81,738 3,014 1,971 2,021 265,926
Sales Mar-10 59,440 77,380 70,023 2,365 2,098 1,717 213,023 Dec-10 71,060 96,630 78,202 2,783 1,848 1,949 252,472
Chg (%) YoY 25.7 32.4 16.7 27.4 (6.1) 17.7 24.8 QoQ 5.2 6.0 4.5 8.3 6.7 3.7 5.3 Mar-11 25,596 33,220 17,572 999 386 461 78,234
EBITDA Mar-10 20,220 23,390 15,094 917 618 383 60,622 Dec-10 23,640 29,000 16,344 879 394 428 70,685
Chg (%) YoY 26.6 42.0 16.4 8.9 (37.5) 20.4 29.1 QoQ 8.3 14.6 7.5 13.7 (2.0) 7.7 10.7 Mar-11 18,502 25,330 13,421 477 208 362 58,300
Net Profit Mar-10 16,170 20,010 12,361 443 193 397 49,574 Dec-10 17,800 23,700 13,259 454 214 362 55,789
Chg (%) YoY 14.4 26.6 8.6 7.7 7.8 (8.8) 17.6 QoQ 3.9 6.9 1.2 5.1 (2.8) 4.5
Sector Earnings:
IT Earnings: We believe that 4QFY11 will be a strong quarter for top IT companies due to uptick in discretionary spends. Contribution from the consultancy business will increase from the current quarter for both Infosys and TCS and will have a positive impact on the margins of the company. Infosys vs. TCS: TCS once again will surprise the street with a growth leadership of ~6% QoQ, beating Infosys which could exhibit a ~5.2% QoQ rise. We foresee TCS gaining from uptick in discretionary spend and believe that margin triggers which have enabled TCS to post robust margin expansion in past few quarter vs. a decline by its competitor Infosys will remain intact. Wipro: We also believe that worst is not yet over for Wipro and the company will once again be found wanting on the margin front primarily due to higher attrition and lower utilisation levels.
Guidance vs. expectation

Infosys: Although Infosys has guided revenues of INR71.57-72.30bn and EPS of INR31.06-31.28, our calculation gives us revenues of INR74.74bn (+5.3% QoQ) and an EPS of ~INR32.47 (+4.3% QoQ). We expect Infosys to guide a revenue growth of 17-19% and EPS growth of ~16-17% for FY12e. There is a high possibility that Infosys would affect a dividend payout of INR15/share and probably consider a generous bonus (1:1) on completion of its 30 years in FY11. TCS: Although TCS' management does not provide any guidance, our calculation gives us a revenue growth of (+5.9% QoQ) and an EPS of ~INR12.94 (+6.9% QoQ). We expect TCS to upgrade its employee addition guidance from 37,000 to 45,000 for FY12e.
Infosys Technologies
On the revenue front, we believe that Infosys will also gain from the uptick in demand environment, and will once again outperform its muted guidance on the back of revival in demand environment driven by increase in discretionary spend. We expect robust growth in BFSI, retail and manufacturing fronts. Key triggers to watch for: Attrition: We believe that Infosys will report a slightly lower attrition of ~17% vs. 17.5% previously, based on the fact that the company has ramped up its lateral recruitment in the past two quarters. High utilisation: We expect Infosys to post utilisation of ~74% (including trainees) based on its slightly low attrition vs. the previous quarter.
8 APRIL 2011 | 16
Employee addition: Guiding towards an employee addition of ~25,000 for FY12e. Cash: The company may come up with a dividend of INR15 in 4QFY11, maintaining its trend of distributing 25-30% of earnings (it had already given a dividend of INR10 and a special dividend of INR30 during FY11). Bonus issue: Completed its 30 years in FY11, and going by the past trends we believe the company might give a 1:1 bonus issue.
Tata Consultancy Services

On revenue front, we believe TCS to benefit from uptick in demand environment, and to post robust growth in BFSI, retail and manufacturing verticals due to strong revenues from application development and consultancy. Improvement in consultancy and application development work will not only enable a robust revenue growth but will also aid margins due to uptick in overall average billing rate. Although 4Q is generally a weak quarter and expectations are quite sluggish, we expect 4QFY11 to contrast this trend with a strong growth as most of unused budget will get deployment in this quarter. Also, management's commentary on demand environment, deal pipeline and pricing uptick has been very positive (Refer: Chandrasekaran interaction on CNBC on Mar 29, 2011). Key triggers to watch for: Lower attrition: We believe TCS will once again post lowest attrition rate of 14-14.5% YoY among the peer set. High utilisation: The company is expected to post utilisation of ~76.5% (including trainees) based on its low attrition rates and bench strength. Low employee cost: TCS' employee costs to remain in the range of ~35.8% similar to the last three quarters helped by low attrition and high utilisation. Employee addition: We expect it to upgrade employee addition target for FY12e from 37,000 to 45,000 based on the uptick in discretionary spend.
Wipro
Although Wipro had provided a revenue growth guidance of 3-5% on a sequential basis which is way high than what Infosys has guided (1.25-1.75%), we believe the chances of Wipro beating it at the high end will be a challenge. We also strongly believe that Wipro will not be able to post revenue growth higher than Infosys at least in the coming quarter. We also have serious concerns on the restructuring of manpower front where we believe that Wipro would have incurred significant expenses and also would have taken a shot at its utilization levels. Although we believe that the company will charge it as a one-time expense, the possibility of recurrence of the same is high for at least next few quarters. Key triggers to watch for: Our calculation based on operational metrics gives us revenues of INR81.7bn (+4% QoQ) and an EPS of ~INR5.48 (+1% QoQ). Higher attrition: We believe Wipro will report attrition of +20% and key thing to watch for will be involuntary attrition. Also, we believe that involuntary attrition will trigger voluntary attrition more in the coming quarters. Low utilisation: The company is expected to post utilisation of ~71% (including trainees) based on its high attrition rates. High one-time restructuring costs: We believe that the employee cost component reported by Wipro will have high involuntary employee costs. Employee addition: We expect Wipro to give a fresh recruitment target for FY12e in the range of 18,000-20,000.
8 APRIL 2011 | 17
CMC Ltd.
Key triggers to watch for: We expect CMC to report revenues of INR 3.01bn implying a YoY growth of 27.4% and sequential growth of 8%. Our high revenue estimates are based on both uptick in discretionary spend and high domestic growth primarily from government projects. We believe the company will report an EPS of INR31.51. Our high EPS estimates are primarily based on continuous shift from low margin consumer business to high margin IT enabled services business. We expect very positive commentary from the company primarily in the IT enabled services segment and education vertical. All the three verticals i.e. IT enabled services, systems integration and education are posting significant growth for the last few quarters and we expect the momentum to continue going ahead on the back of significant demand in the domestic IT services market triggered by budget allocation by most of the state governments and e-governance roll out coupled with successful implementation of UID.
Persistent Systems
Key triggers to watch for: We expect Persistent to report revenues of INR2.02bn implying a sequential growth of 4%. PAT is expected to be flat at INR362m. Diluted EPS in 4QFY11 is estimated at INR9.06. We expect company to guide sequential revenue growth of ~3-5% and also update on new projects and client budgets.
KPIT Cummins
Key triggers to watch for: We expect KPIT to report revenues of INR1.97bn, implying a sequential growth of 7%. PAT is expected to decline by ~2% QoQ to INR208m. Diluted EPS in 4QFY11 is estimated at INR2.57. We expect company to guide on usage of huge cash balance lying on its current account.
8 APRIL 2011 | 18
Media
Cricket to rule the quarter
+91 22 4031 3450 rajesh.zawar@antiquelimited.com +91 22 4031 3412 varun.gupta@antiquelimited.com
Rajesh Zawar
Varun Gupta
Company Quarter Ending IBN18 Consolidated Den Networks Dish TV Hathway Cable Sun TV Network UTV Software Comm Zee Entertainment Total Mar-11 2,196 2,678 4,076 2,261 5,700 2,674 7,501 27,085
Sales Mar-10 1,688 2,463 3,031 NA 3,910 1,306 6,493 18,891 Dec-10 2,362 2,644 3,732 2,271 5,970 2,559 7,549 27,087
Chg (%) YoY 30 9 34 NA 46 105 16 43 QoQ (7) 1 9 (0) (5) 4 (1) (0) Mar-11 374 294 671 425 3,581 684 1,699 7,728
EBITDA Mar-10 24 270 349 NA 3,309 407 1,836 6,195 Dec-10 321 265 666 415 5,018 534 1,541 8,761
Chg (%) YoY 1,455 9 93 NA 8 68 (7) 25 QoQ 16 11 1 2 (29) 28 10 (12) Mar-11 213 130 (775) (160) 2,049 366 1,220 3,042
Net Profit Mar-10 (225) 170 (598) NA 1,651 305 1,263 2,566 Dec-10 198 89 (443) 2,255 400 1,509 4,007
Chg (%) YoY NA (24) NA NA 24 20 (3) 19 QoQ 8 47 NA NA (9) (9) (19) (24)
3QFY11 saw a buoyant growth led by festive season. In the current quarter, cricket world cup and Budget session steal the show. The GRPs of the Hindi GEC and other genres have fallen sharply in the last few weeks. The cricket is expected to constitute more than 20% of the total ad spends for CY11e with World cup generating an ad spend revenue of more than INR20bn and IPL 4 getting the rest of the pie. While the major portion of ad revenue spend during cricket goes to the match broadcasters, other channels also benefit due to the increase spend by companies. 4Q will see a marginal or flat growth for the sector followed by a double digit growth rate for FY12e.
DTH industry - two fold benefits from Cricket packed quarter

DTH industry with a gross subs addition of ~1m per month will continue to see similar growth in subscriber addition number in the current and next quarter due to the cricket packed quarter. In addition to subscriber addition the industry will also see an upward trend in ARPU due to high definition TV. Dish TV, with an incremental market share of 30-32%, will reach a gross subscriber base of 10.4m in FY11e. We have forecasted an ARPU of INR142 for FY11e and revenue of 4.1bn for 4QFY11.
Cable digitisation approved by cabinet

Cable operators which are facing sharp competition form DTH industry will get some relief once the digitisation bill is passed in the parliament. Hence, even though the long-term seems positive for the cable industry, delay in policy, stiff competition from DTH players and dithering of execution by cable companies will have negative impact in the short term.
GEC - bowled by cricket season

GEC has seen a sharp fall in GRP over the last few weeks. We expect this trend to continue in the first half of next quarters which will be dominated by IPL 4. IBN18 which reported a sharp turnaround in the last quarter will see the growth momentum continued in the current quarter. 4Q also being the budget season will benefit the news business of the company, which constitutes 50% of the revenue of the restructured entity. The five state elections in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerela, Assam and Pondicherry in the next quarter will drive the growth in revenue and earnings. Zee TV reported sports loss of INR1bn in 3QFY11 and the current quarter might see a similar cost structure due to the high cost associated with India-South Africa series. The GEC business will see a marginal growth due to improved domestic subscription revenue.
8 APRIL 2011 | 19
Metals
Sector bouncing back
+91 22 4031 3450 rajesh.zawar@antiquelimited.com +91 22 4031 3414 nilesh.mahajan@antiquelimited.com
Rajesh Zawar
Nilesh Mahajan
Company Quarter Ending Graphite India Hindalco Industries Hindustan Zinc Monnet Ispat NALCO Prakash Industries Sterlite Industries JSPL JSW Steel Sesa Goa SAIL Tata Steel (India) Tata Steel (Consol) Total Mar-11 3,360 68,841 29,282 3,981 18,565 4,493 86,543 32,665 64,684 33,000 125,150 80,323 327,731
Sales Mar-10 3,386 54,044 24,985 4,384 16,260 4,643 71,108 31,756 54,807 28,156 122,298 73,394 275,038 Dec-10 3,375 59,746 26,015 3,471 14,432 3,823 83,325 31,740 60,026 24,987 113,128 73,974 290,895 714,962
Chg (%) YoY (1) 27 17 (9) 14 (3) 22 3 18 17 2 9 19 16 QoQ (0) 15 13 15 29 18 4 3 8 32 11 9 13 12 Mar-11 739 9,117 17,182 1,185 5,753 820 26,070 16,449 14,039 18,307 28,150 30,811 42,562 180,373
EBITDA Mar-10 982 8,354 15,548 1,284 5,411 990 20,685 14,587 13,234 15,030 30,971 31,307 47,502 Dec-10 732 7,401 14,318 1,109 3,896 717 19,787 15,987 10,164 12,306 17,957 28,205 34,246
Chg (%) YoY (25) 9 11 (8) 6 (17) 26 13 6 22 (9) (2) (10) 3 QoQ 1 23 20 7 48 14 32 3 38 49 57 9 24 30 Mar-11 425 5,960 14,746 684 3,935 500 13,263 11,101 5,555 14,505 17,788 16,207 14,115
Net Profit Mar-10 556 6,639 12,920 725 3,915 737 13,809 9,634 6,110 12,129 20,849 21,623 32,410 Dec-10 442 4,603 12,428 702 2,560 551 11,011 9,511 2,917 10,653 11,075 15,135 9,489 75,942
Chg (%) YoY (24) (10) 14 (6) 1 (32) (4) 15 (9) 20 (15) (25) (56) (15) QoQ (4) 29 19 (3) 54 (9) 20 17 90 36 61 7 49 35
798,295 690,863
174,575 138,620
102,577 120,433
The metals sector was severely impacted by the consumption slowdown in major markets and has seen strong rise in raw material and finished product prices. 4QFY11 witnessed sharp recoveries in prices of base metals with near term bottom seen in 3QFY11. Ferrous sector also participated in the rally following the raw material prices increased but end product sequentially was at similar levels. However, towards quarter end, the metal witnessed some correction and the volatility persisted with Japanese Tsunami and global demand headwinds.
Ferrous companies helped by higher volumes

We expect steel companies to increase their profitability sequentially in 4QFY11 with improvement in volumes however increase of raw material prices will be offset by better product realisations during the quarter. Thus, steel companies will see expansion in EBITDA per tonne for JSPL, JSW Steel and Tata Steel. Similarly, Sesa Goa will see improved performance by higher volumes on account of busy quarter and higher realisations.
Non-ferrous companies benefitted by rising prices

Sequential rise in the metal prices will help the revenue growth of the non-ferrous companies. Hindalco, Nalco, Hindustan Zinc and Sterlite Industries will gain by rising output prices but the operating costs might see an increase with rising input prices from coal. Commodity Average Prices
Commodity LME Aluminium Spot LME Copper Spot LME Zinc Spot LME Lead Spot LME Nickel Spot LME Silver Spot LME Gold Spot Indian Domestic HRC Iron ore fines 63.5% - CFR (China)
Source: Bloomberg
Unit USD/t USD/t USD/t USD/t USD/t USD/oz USD/oz USD/t USD/t
4QFY11 2,506 9,633 2,394 2,602 26,905 32 1,388 903 183
4QFY10 2,167 7,245 2,283 2,211 20,096 17 1,110 777 134
Change YoY (%) 16 33 5 18 34 89 25 16 37
3QFY11 2,341 8,631 2,314 2,387 23,565 27 1,370 886 163
Change QoQ (%) 7 12 3 9 14 20 1 2 12
8 APRIL 2011 | 20
Oil & Gas

Higher subsidy burden capping upstream realisations
+91 22 4031 3434 amitr@antiquelimited.com +91 22 4031 3422 ruchi.dugar@antiquelimited.com
Amit Rustagi
Ruchi Dugar
+91 22 4031 3447 miten.vora@antiquelimited.com
Miten Vora
Company Quarter Ending Mar-11 BPCL Essar Oil GAIL HPCL IOC OIL ONGC Petronet RIL Total 450,083 147,933 88,438 414,560 989,914 24,237 173,943 38,255 728,290
3,055,652
Sales Mar-10 375,509 104,540 65,221 313,213 772,299 18,321 147,133 23,855 575,700 Dec-10 366,655 122,330 83,650 339,025 803,332 23,887 185864 36,276 597,890
Chg (%) YoY 20 42 36 32 28 32 18 60 27

28
EBITDA Mar-11 13,280 7,682 15,618 10,745 44,990 11,006 101,656 3,265 100,787
309,030
Chg (%) Dec-10 7,284 7,590 13,331 6,267 27,275 12,281 113,138 3,456 95,450
286,073
Net Profit Mar-11 6,628 2,873 9,630 3,971 19,128 6,849 45,639 1,599 54,239
150,556
Chg (%) Dec-10 1,874 2,730 9,676 2,110 16,348 9,080 57,618 1,708 51,360
152,504
QoQ 23 21 6 22 23 1 (6) 5 22
19
Mar-10 11,272 3,440 13,637 13,139 72,986 6,658 81,290 2,262 91,360
296,044
YoY 18 123 15 (18) (38) 65 25 44 10

4
QoQ 82 1 17 71 65 (10) (10) (6) 6

8
Mar-10 17,897 1,800 9,108 7,575 55,568 4,310 37,376 973 47,100
181,707
YoY (63) 60 6 (48) (66) 59 22 64 15

17
QoQ 254 5 (0) 88 17 (25) (21) (6) 6

(1)
2,395,791 2,558,908
OMCs to post profits, with government support on under-recoveries and improved GRMs
During 4QFY11, with 21% QoQ rise in oil prices to USD105/bbl, under-recoveries on diesel and cooking fuel prices have risen to INR313.7bn from INR149.3bn in 3QFY11. We estimate cooking fuel under-recoveries at INR137.9bn and auto fuel underrecoveries (diesel) at INR175.8bn. We have assumed 1/3rd sharing of total under-recoveries by upstream companies, 50% to be shared by the government and the rest 17% to be borne by OMCs. With better GRMs and inventory gains due to rising oil price (up USD21/bbl since the beginning of the quarter), OMCs are expected to post profits despite FX losses as a result of rupee depreciation (-INR0.5/USD). While we expect government to compensate 50% of total under-recoveries, we are awaiting for further clarity on under-recovery sharing mechanism. Company & product wise under-recoveries and its sharing (INRm)
4QFY11 (INRm) Diesel Domestic LPG PDS SKO Total Upstream share (1/3rd) Sharing among upstream Subsidy sharing % sharing among upstream
Source: Antique
BPCL 43,581 19,570 10,411 73,562 24,518 ONGC 86,959 83%
HPCL 36,709 20,099 11,658 68,466 22,820 OIL 11,511 11%
IOCL 95,481 35,890 40,272 171,643 57,209 GAIL 6,076 6%
Total 175,771 75,559 62,341 313,670 104,546 Total 104,546 100%
Net realisations of PSU upstream companies to be impacted by higher subsidy burden

ONGC is expected to post net realisations of ~USD59/bbl, up 14% YoY but down 10% QoQ and OIL is expected to post net realisations of ~USD60/bbl, up 1% QoQ and 27% YoY. We expect upstream companies to share 1/3rd of total under-recoveries. ONGCs 4Q net profits are expected to increase by 22% YoY but decline 21% QoQ due to higher subsidy discount because of high oil prices. We expect DD&A to remain higher at INR45.6bn and a flattish QoQ oil & gas production. OIL is expected to post a net profit of INR6.8bn, higher by 59% YoY and but decline of 25% QoQ due to higher subsidy discount.
8 APRIL 2011 | 21
RIL earnings to remain strong despite fall in KG-D6 production

We expect Reliance Industries to report a 15% YoY and 6% QoQ rise in net profits aided by 28% YoY increase in refining GRMs at USD9.6/bbl. Refining EBIT of INR28.8bn is expected to rise 18% QoQ and 45% YoY due to better GRMs. E&P earnings to get impacted by fall in KG-D6 gas production by 6% QoQ to 51mmcmd (including MA). Panna Mukta volumes recovered QoQ, oil increased by 29% to 36.9Mbbl/d and gas increased by 52% to 5.8mmcmd. Petchem earnings are expected to fall by 3% QoQ due to sharp rise in feed cost prices despite recovery in Petchem prices.
GAIL core earnings to remain strong, provision for DUPL tariff to impact growth
We expect GAIL to report flat QoQ earnings due to 20% fall in transmission EBIT impacted by INR120m provision for 6% reduction in tariff by regulator, effective November 2008. Petchem EBIT on the other hand is expected to rise by 94% QoQ due to 51% QoQ sales and 6% higher QoQ HDPE prices. We estimate GAIL to share 1/3rd of cooking fuel losses and share subsidy amount of ~INR6.1bn (up 45% QoQ). For PLNG, We estimate earnings to rise by 64% YoY but down 6% QoQ. We expect a 30% YoY and a flat QoQ growth in volumes due to higher spot cargoes. PLNG has done nearly 8 spot cargoes, out of which 4 cargoes are done as re-gasification services.
Essar Oil's profitability boosted by recovery in refining margins

We expect Essar Oil to post a 60% YoY and 5% QoQ rise in net profit led by upswing in Asian refining margins. Essar Oil is expected to report GRMs of USD6.5/bbl excluding any sales tax benefit helped by sharp recovery in diesel crack spreads, and inventory gains due to rising oil price (up USD21/bbl since the beginning of 4QFY11). Summary of key indicators
Particulars (USD/bbl) Bonny Light Dubai SGP Diesel-Dubai SGP Gasoiine-Dubai SGP Naphtha-Dubai SGP Dubai-Arab heavy SGP Dubai-Maya SGP 95 RON-Dubai INR/USD Reuters SGP GRMs
4QFY11 107 100 18.1 12.5 (0.3) 2.6 8.8 12.5 45.3 7.4
4QFY10 78 76 8.9 12.6 2.3 1.3 5.3 12.6 45.9 4.9
YoY (Chg %) 37 32 103 (0) (112) 103 68 (0) (1) 51
3QFY11 88 84 12.9 10.8 3.3 3.1 8.3 10.8 44.8 5.4
QoQ (Chg %) 21 18 40 16 (108) (16) 7 16 1 37
Refining margins continues to rise in 4QFY11, led by strong diesel spreads

10 40 30 20 10 0 3QFY05 140 110 80 50 20 4QFY11
2 1QFY08 4QFY08 3QFY09 2QFY10 1QFY11 4QFY11 SGP GRM (USD/bbl)

4QFY06
1QFY08
2QFY09
3QFY10
SGP Diesel-Dubai (USD/bbl)
SGP Dubai crude (USD/bbl,RHS)
8 APRIL 2011 | 22
Despite rise in oil prices, light heavy spreads remain flattish

16 12 8 4 0 3QFY05 120 95 70 45 20 4QFY11
Singapore Gasoline R95-Dubai crude rise to USD3/bbl QoQ

33 28 23 18 13 8 3 -2 -7 Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec 05-10 range
4QFY06
1QFY08
2QFY09
3QFY10
Dubai-M aya (USD/bbl) SGP Dubai crude (USD/bbl)-RHS

SGP Dubai-A rab heavy(USD/bbl)
2009
2010
2011
Singapore Naphtha-Dubai crude fall by USD3/bbl QoQ

20 10 0 -10
INR appreciated by 1.3% YoY and depreciated 1%QoQ against USD

51 49 47 45 43
-20 -30 Jan
41 39 3QFY05
Feb Mar 05-10 range
Apr
May
Jun 2009
Jul
Sep
Oct Nov
Dec 2011
4QFY06
1QFY08
2QFY09
3QFY10
4QFY11
2010
INR/USD
8 APRIL 2011 | 23
Pharmaceuticals
Buoyancy to continue
+91 22 4031 3426 nishant.patel@antiquelimited.com
Nishant Patel
Company Quarter Ending Aurobindo Pharma Cadila Healthcare Indoco Remedies Ipca Laboratories Lupin Ltd Sun Pharma Jubilant Lifesciences Total Mar-11 10,780 10,820 1,226 4,438 15,616 11,690 7,984 73,088
Sales Mar-10 9,128 8,466 1,105 3,817 13,282 10,157 6,048 56,234 Dec-10 11,922 11,668 1,155 4,664 15,102 16,011 8,690 66,572
Chg (%) YoY 18 28 11 16 18 15 32 20 QoQ (10) (7) 6 (5) 3 (27) (8) (7) Mar-11 3,245 2,528 151 918 3,921 2,260 1,720 16,457
EBITDA Mar-10 2,724 1,894 126 814 2,924 1,941 1,585 14,435 Dec-10 3,195 2,562 145 910 2,973 3,510 1,322 15,672
Chg (%) YoY 19 34 20 13 34 16 8 21 QoQ 2 (1) 4 1 32 (36) 30 5 Mar-11 2,461 1,636 85 573 2,669 2,406 1,143 10,996
Net Profit Mar-10 2,068 1,188 82 499 2,206 2,635 920 9,755 Dec-10 1,887 1,620 88 527 2,240 2,606 442 12,556
Chg (%) YoY 19 38 4 15 21 (9) 24 16 QoQ 30 1 (3) 9 19 (8) 159 30
Steady state growth in domestic market

Indian pharmaceutical companies are likely to maintain strong growth in 4QFY11. The sustained growth is driven by new product introductions and higher penetration in the domestic as well as regulated markets. Domestic formulation market is expected to grow further by ~15% with chronic therapy areas outpacing the acute. We expect companies to register a growth of ~12-15% in the domestic market, and adjusting for base effect, the growth could be ~7-8% in 4QFY11. Most of the domestic companies have continued to add field force during the quarter resulting in higher overheads for certain companies. We expect companies such as Ipca, Lupin, Sun Pharma, and Cadila Healthcare, to grow by ~15-18% in 4QFY11e.
Regulated markets to witness strong growth on the back of higher product approvals
Prescription trends for Indian companies supplying generics and branded generics have witnessed an upmove. Indian companies have received approvals for products with exclusivity such as Pantaprazole, Omeprezole OTC, and Fexofinadine for Dr. Reddy's, Zolpidem for Ranbaxy and Taxotere for Cadila JV - this will drive major revenue upsides in the US. Companies such as Lupin and Cadila Healthcare which have a branded formulations business in the US have continued to witness stronger prescription sales in 4QFY11.
CRAMs business on road to gradual recovery

Our interaction with Custom Research and Manufacturing Service (CRAM) companies gives us some sense that customers have started re-stocking inventory in 4QFY11e. Big pharmacos have resumed outsourcing after the recent spate of high-value M&As resulted in realignment of excess capacity. Companies such as Jubilant Lifesciences and Dishman Pharma continue to witness partial restocking of inventory and have signed sub-USD50m contracts. The outsourcing industry is still void of large multi-year, multi-million dollar deals that will result in higher growth and better confidence in the industry. We expect CRAM companies to grow ~8-10% in 4QFY11e.
Aurobindo Pharma
We expect Aurobindo Pharma (Aurobindo) to report a 15% growth in revenues at INR10.7bn. Growth in revenue will be aided by contribution strong sales in the export formulation business, however income from the Pfizer deal is expected to slow down in 1QFY12, we expect some impact in 4QFY11e. The quarter has witnessed two setbacks on the Pfizer deal - one on Import alert sounded on Unit VI and product recall issue faced by Pfizer's Generic arm Greenstone. We increased contribution from Pfizer deal. The quarter has witnessed an ARV contract being awarded to Aurobindo resultant of which we expect the segment to witness 18% growth during the quarter. Export formulations which include geographies such as Europe and RoW markets will witness 16% growth on the back of new product launches and maintaining prescription share of existing products. We expect operating profits to grow by 15% to INR3.2bn and maintain margins at 30.1% during the current quarter. We expect the net profit to increase by 16% to INR2.5bn during the quarter.
8 APRIL 2011 | 24
Cadila Healthcare
We expect Cadila Healthcare (Cadila) to report a revenue growth of 29% to INR10.8bn during 4QFY11e. We expect the Zydus Hospira JV to witness higher contribution on account of FDA approval received to market generic Taxotere. This will help improve capacity utilization levels and income for the JV during the quarter. We expect the domestic formulations business to grow above market growth rates of 15% on account of higher contribution from chronic therapy areas. Better product mix and cost rationalization efforts is likely to result in 34% rise in operating profits to INR2.5bn with operating margin growth of 100bps at 23.4% during the quarter. We expect Cadila to report a net profit growth of 38% to INR1.6bn
Indoco Remedies
We expect Indoco Remedies (Indoco) to report a revenue growth of 11% to INR1.2bn driven by strong domestic and export sales. We expect operating margins to expand by 100bps to 12.3% during the quarter. Net profit is expected to grow 4% to INR85m during the quarter.
Ipca Laboratories Limited

We expect Ipca to report a revenue growth of 16% to INR4.4bn during 4QFY11e. This growth will be achieved by combination of higher sales in the domestic market and good regulated market sales. The quarter witnessed Ipca's manufacturing facility receiving UKMHRA approval to its Indore SEZ which will result in higher off-take from the UK and European markets. We expect utilization levels at the facility to be slow during the quarter actual pick up in volumes from the Indore SEZ for UK is expected only by 1QFY12e onwards. We expect overheads of maintaining the site to be high even in the current quarter impacting operating margins. We expect operating margins to decline by 100bps to 20% during the quarter. Net profits are likely grow by 14% to INR572m.
Lupin Limited
We expect Lupin to report a revenue growth of 15% to INR15.6bn driven by strong domestic formulation sales and higher international contribution. We expect Lupin's domestic formulations business to grow at 15% in 4QFY11e. Branded generics segment in the US is expected to witness a lag despite increased sales in Antara prescription in the last two months. Generics business on the other hand will grow at 15% in the regulated markets. Japan will witness strong traction on a lower base resulting in higher revenue from that geography. Better product mix and cost rationalization efforts will result in EBIDTA growing by 25% during the quarter to INR3.9bn and PAT to grow by 18% to INR2.7bn.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited

We expect Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma) to report a growth of 15% (excluding Taro sales). On the domestic formulation business, we expect the segment to outpace the industry growth at 20% during the quarter. However, despite stronger topline growth, we expect the operating profits to increase by only 16% on account of integration of Taro and costs associated with it to INR2.2bn and Net profits to grow 10% to INR2.8bn.
Jubilant Lifesciences
Our interaction with the CRAMs companies suggests that big pharmacos have resumed re-stocking inventory in 4QFY11e. Big pharmacos have realigned their manufacturing sites after series of high-value M&A in 2009. Pharma companies have resumed outsourcing research and manufacturing to Indian companies. Indian companies such as Jubilant Lifesciences, Dishman Pharma and Divis Laboratories have signed sub-USD50m contracts with big players. Though they are currently void of any large multiyear, multi-million dollar deals, we expect this segment to gain traction only from 1QFY12 onwards. We expect Jubilant Lifesciences to grow at 32% to INR7.8bn. We expect revenue to witness an uptick on account of partial restocking of inventory by the big pharmacos. We expect EBIDTA to grow by 8% to INR1.7bn and PAT to grow 24% to INR1.1m during 4QFY11e.
8 APRIL 2011 | 25
Real Estate & Road Infrastructure

Phoenix Mills and Indiabulls Real Estate to see strong YoY earnings growth
+91 22 4031 3446 karishma.solanki@antiquelimited.com
Karishma Solanki
Company Quarter Ending Real Estate DLF Unitech HDIL IBREL Phoenix Mills Sobha Developers DB Realty Total (ex-DB Realty) Road Infrastructure IL&FS Transportation Total 8,804 8,804 25,240 7,707 4,160 1,566 464 3,621 2,323 42,757 Mar-11
Sales Mar-10 19,944 11,074 4,341 607 345 4,008 NA 40,319 Dec-10 24,799 6,598 4,554 3,997 451 3,629 2,733 44,027
Chg (%) YoY 27 (30) (4) 158 35 (10) NA 6 QoQ 2 17 (9) (61) 3 (0) (15) (3) Mar-11 11,942 2,769 2,413 477 338 1,072 999 19,011
EBITDA Mar-10 10,000 2,475 2,271 (120) 198 965 NA 15,789 Dec-10 11,780 2,088 2,665 1,229 327 820 1,191 18,909
Chg (%) YoY 19 12 6 497 71 11 NA 20 QoQ 1 33 (9) (61) 3 31 (16) 1 Mar-11 4,950 1,557 2,166 398 245 493 754 9,810
Net Profit Mar-10 4,264 1,634 1,778 9 157 557 NA 8,399 Dec-10 4,657 1,114 2,519 238 490 1,087 9,783
Chg (%) YoY 16 (5) 22 56 (11) NA 17 QoQ 6 40 (14) (48) 3 1 (31) 0
766 4,556
NA NA
7,337 7,337
NA NA
20 20
2,377 2,377
NA NA
2,207 2,207
NA NA
8 8
725 725
NA NA
616 616
NA NA
18 18
Real Estate
In the past year, real estate prices have rebounded in most markets across the country. In some markets such as Mumbai prices have crossed peak levels and affordability has once again become a concern resulting in declining residential sales volumes in the city. While prices have increased in NCR, demand seems to have stabilised. The past year saw high absorption levels in Noida region given the launch of several mid-income housing projects. With property prices still below peak levels, improving infrastructure and strong outlook for employment generation and salary hikes, Bangalore emerges as one of the most attractive real estate markets in the country. Going forward, we expect real estate prices to moderate/stabilise, and given rising interest rates, we expect affordability to once again become a key issue in influencing demand. Demand for office space too has recovered in the past year in most markets. We expect office space absorption to continue to improve in FY12e driven by healthy growth in the economy. However, upside on rentals will be limited given sufficient supply in pipeline.
Road Infrastructure
The pace of project awards by NHAI has improved in FY11 but is still below the level required to achieve the target of completion of 20km of road per day. In FY11, NHAI awarded ~5,100km of road, an increase of 52% over FY10 but well below the target of 9,000km. That said we expect the pace of project awards to increase in FY12e since it is the last year of the 11th plan. In an effort to expedite the process of project awards, NHAI has invited applications from road developers for pre-qualification of projects that are expected to be floated within a year. The pre-qualification will be valid from 1st Jan to 31st Dec every year and the companies seeking pre-qualification must indicate the estimated project cost for which it wishes to get pre-qualified. In FY12e, NHAI is looking to award 7,300km of roads, of which 700-800km will be awarded in April itself and ~2,000km in 1QFY12e.
DLF
In 4QFY11, similar to the trend seen in previous quarters of FY11, new launches were lower than anticipated. In its 3QFY11 results, DLF had stated plans to launch ~8m sq ft of new projects in Gurgaon, Chandigarh, Delhi and Kochi. However, in 4QFY11, the company launched only ~3.3m sq ft - ~2m sq ft of plots in Mullanpur (Chandigarh), 1m sq ft of commercial space (Horizon Centre) in Gurgaon and 0.3m sq ft of luxury housing in Delhi (Greater Kailash II). We expect the company to end the year with ~9-10m sq ft of sales (6.5m sq ft sold in 9mFY11) vs. its target of ~12m sq ft and 20-28% lower volumes than the 12.5m sq ft sold in FY10.
8 APRIL 2011 | 26
Plotted development will be an important feature of FY12 launches. The company plans to launch plots in Indore, New Gurgaon and Panchkula. Additional launches planned in FY12 include group housing in New Gurgaon, Gurgaon Phase V and Bangalore Phase II. We estimate ~16% YoY growth in net profit in 4QFY11 but on a QoQ basis we expect the increase in net profit to be relatively muted at 6% on account of few new launches.
HDIL
We estimate 4QFY11 TDR volumes to be ~12% lower QoQ at ~1.1m sq ft (vs. 1.25m sq ft in 3QFY11) given decline in residential sale volumes in Mumbai which is expected to translate into lower demand for TDR. However, we expect TDR prices to be stable QoQ. HDIL will likely continue to monetise its land in the Vasai-Virar belt in the coming quarters. We are estimating a 15% QoQ increase in revenue recognised from FSI sale in Vasai-Virar in 4QFY11. In Oct 2010, the company had signed an MoU for sale of FSI worth ~INR6.5bn at its Goregaon Siddharth Nagar project. If this transaction is recognised in the books, earnings could be higher than estimated. For 4QFY11, we expect HDIL's net profit to grow 22% YoY primarily due to higher TDR prices. However, on a QoQ basis, we expect net profit to be down 14% on account of lower TDR sale volumes.
Indiabulls Real Estate (IBREL)

IBREL's 4QFY11 revenue and net profit is expected to see a substantial YoY jump since residential projects began contributing to revenue recognition only from 1QFY11. On a QoQ basis, we expect revenues to be lower since the revenue recognition threshold for some large projects was crossed in the previous quarters, as a result of which a substantial percentage of revenue was recognized in the last quarter. Area of office spaced leased in Jupiter and Elphinstone Mills is expected to have increased given that ~2.45m sq ft of office space has been completed in both these projects together.
Sobha Developers
We expect Sobha Developers' 4QFY11e revenues and net profit to be relatively flat QoQ. On a YoY basis however, we expect net profit to be down 11% due to lower revenue recognition from sale of land. Sales volumes for 4QFY11 are expected to be 0.5-0.6m sq ft vs. 0.7m sq ft in 3QFY11 largely because no new projects were launched during the quarter. Lower sales volumes in 4QFY11 will be offset by better realisations. Average realisation is expected to improve from INR3,946/ sq ft in 3QFY11 to ~INR4,100/sq ft in 4QFY11. Several projects are scheduled to be launched in 1QFY12 including large projects in NCR and North Bangalore.
Phoenix Mills
4QFY11 net profit is expected to register a 56% YoY increase on account of higher income contribution from Palladium. On a QoQ basis, we expect net profit growth to increase marginally by 3%. Fit outs by retailers is in advanced stages at Pune Market City and the mall is scheduled to open in the second half of Apr 2011. This will be the company's first mall to become operational after High Street Phoenix. Opening of market city projects in Pune, Bangalore and Kurla and renewal of lease agreements with anchor tenants (Big Bazaar, Lifestyle and Pantaloon) occupying ~0.15m sq ft at High Street Phoenix are key events to track in FY12.
8 APRIL 2011 | 27
Unitech
As at end of 3QFY11 Unitech had sold 7.19m sq ft and may end the year with ~9.5-9.7m sq ft of sales, just a little short of its target of 10m sq ft. We estimate 4QFY11 net profit to decline 5% YoY but on a QoQ basis net profit is expected to show a healthy growth of 40% given that 3QFY11 profits were negatively impacted by non-operating loss of INR376m on account of disposal of a capital asset.
DB Realty
We expect TDR from Mahul Nagar project to continue contributing the largest share of revenues in 4QFY11. Orchid Woods in Goregaon East is expected to be the other major factor contributing to revenues given the advanced stage of completion.
IL&FS Transportation
We expect a healthy QoQ growth in revenues and net profit since the company has achieved good construction progress on 4-5 projects in 4QFY11 and the 10% threshold limit for revenue recognition is expected to have been crossed for some projects. Towards the end of the quarter, the company tied-up debt for Phase II of the Rajasthan Mega Highways project. ~75% of the total project cost of INR8.14bn is financed through senior debt facility with a rate of interest of 11% pa.
8 APRIL 2011 | 28
Shipping & Logistics

Overcapacity impacted the recovery in seasonally strong quarter
+91 22 4031 3428 vikram.suryavanshi@antiquelimited.com
Vikram Suryavanshi
Company Quarter Ending GE Shipping Essar Shipping Mercator Lines Great Offshore Total Mar-11 5,206 8,991 7,561 2,667 29,743
Sales Mar-10 7,667 8,516 4,820 2,739 4,205 27,948 Dec-10 5,560 8,190 7,777 1,978 4,508 28,013
Chg (%) YoY (32.1) 5.6 56.9 (2.7) 26.5 6.4 QoQ (6.4) 9.8 (2.8) 34.8 18.0 6.2 Mar-11 1,949 3,009 1,100 1,296 3,525 10,879
EBITDA Mar-10 3,157 2,676 1,347 1,357 2,521 11,057 Dec-10 2,023 2,986 1,380 763 3,098 10,250
Chg (%) YoY (38.3) 12.4 (18.3) (4.5) 39.8 (1.6) QoQ (3.7) 0.8 (20.3) 69.9 13.8 6.1 Mar-11 601 190 (279) 466 2,609 3,586
Net Profit Mar-10 2,113 745 2 731 1,922 5,512 Dec-10 622 265 38 18 2,285 3,229
Chg (%) YoY (71.6) (74.5) NA (36.2) 35.7 (35) QoQ (3.5) (28.3) NA NA 14.2 11
Mundra Port and SEZ 5,318
Freight rates in tanker segment reported significant decline on a YoY basis even from a low base in 4QFY11 and witnessed a marginal recovery on a QoQ basis particularly in VLCC segment. Baltic Dirty Index for crude carriers declined by 18.5% YoY to 823, while Baltic Clean Index for product carriers declined by 14.6% YoY to 692. However, product carrier index remained positive on a QoQ basis with marginal increase of 1.1% in Baltic Clean Index. The freight rates for very large crude carriers (VLCC) remained weak as compared to smaller Suezmax vessels. The time charter yield for spot VLCC declined by 70.1% on a YoY basis to USD10,419 per day (pd). The freight rates index for dry bulk commodity, Baltic Dry bulk Index (BDI), declined by 55.27% on a YoY basis (degrowth of 42.7% QoQ) to 1,355 in 4QFY11. Shipping Index movement
Index Baltic Dry bulk Baltic Dirty Baltic Clean
Source: Bloomberg
4QFY10 3,026 1,010 810
3QFY11 2,363 848 684
4QFY11 1,355 823 692
YoY (%) (55.2) (18.5) (14.6)
QoQ (%) (42.7) (2.9) 1.1
Freight rates in Tanker segment (Spot rates, USD per day)

Segment VLCC Suezmax Aframax Product
Source: Company
4QFY10 34,836 22,271 13,818 4,126
3QFY11 6,832 12,401 10,656 2,370
4QFY11 10,419 11,355 6,747 1,946
YoY (%) (70.1) (49.0) (51.2) (52.8)
QoQ (%) 52.5 (8.4) (36.7) (17.9)
GE Shipping
Revenue is expected to decline by 32.1% YoY (QoQ decline of 6.4%) from INR7.6bn in 4QFY10 to INR5.2bn in 4QFY11. The company acquired 2 bulk carriers (1Supramax and 1 Kamsarmax) and also acquired 1 offshore platform/ROV Support vessel in its offshore subsidiary. It purchased 350ft (IC) jack up rig from Mercator Lines which was under in-charter by offshore subsidiary for 3 year contract with ONGC ending on March 2012. EBIDTA is expected to decline by 38.3% YoY from INR3.1bn in 4QFY10 to INR1.9bn in 4QFY11. The margins are expected to decline from 41.2% in 4QFY10 to 37.4% in 4QFY11 compared to 36.4% in 3QFY11. QoQ improvement in margin is expected due to lower hire cost and repair & maintenance cost. Net Profit is expected to decline by 71.6% on YoY basis (QoQ decline of 3.5%) from INR2.1bn in 4QFY10 to INR601m in 4QFY11. We expect EPS of INR3.9 in 4QFY11.
8 APRIL 2011 | 29
Essar Shipping, Port and Logistics

Revenue is expected to increase by 5.6% YoY (QoQ increase of 9.8%) from INR8.5bn in 4QFY10 to INR8.9bn in 4QFY11, mainly due to commencement of 30mtpa bulk terminal at Hazira, Gujarat. The company is insulated from volatility in shipping freight rates due to long term contacts for its full fleet. EBIDTA is expected to increase by 12.4% YoY from INR2.6bn in 4QFY10 to INR3.0bn in 4QFY11. EBIDTA margins are expected to improve from 31.4% in 4QFY10 to 33.5% in 4QFY11. Net Profits is expected to increase from INR744.8m in 4QFY10 to INR190.2m in 4QFY11 translating into EPS of INR0.3.
Mercator Lines
Revenue is expected to increase by 56.9% YoY from INR4.8bn in 4QFY10 to INR7.5bn in 4QFY11 mainly due to increased in coal mining and logistics business despite weakness in tanker freight rates on YoY basis. The revenue from coal mining is expected to increase by 233% YoY from INR1.2bn in 4QFY10 to INR4.1bn in 4QFY11. EBIDTA is expected to decline by 18.3% YoY from INR1.3bn in 4QFY10 to INR1.1bn in 4QFY11. The margins are expected to decline from 27.9% in 4QFY11 to 14.5% in 4QFY11 compared to 17.7% in 3QFY10. The margin decline is mainly on account of higher contribution from low margin coal business in 4QFY11 and weakness in freight rates. The company is expected to report loss of INR279.4m after adjustment of minority interest of INR50m in 4QFY11 as compared to profit of INR2m in 4QFY10.
Great Offshore
Revenue is expected to decline marginally by 2.6% YoY (34.8% QoQ), from INR2.70bn in 4QFY10 to INR2.6bn in 4QFY11. EBIDTA is estimated to degrow by 4.4% YoY, from INR1.4bn in 4QFY10 to INR1.3bn in 4QFY11. Margins are expected to decline by 93bps, from 49.5% to 48.6% during the same period compared to 38.5% in 3QFY11 mainly on account of higher project expenditure. Net Profits are expected to decline by 36.1% on YoY from INR730.5m in 4QFY10 to INR466.1m in 4QFY11 translating into EPS of INR12.5.
Mundra Port and SEZ

Revenue is expected to increase by 26.5% YoY (18.0% QoQ), from INR4.2bn in 4QFY10 to INR5.3bn in 4QFY11, mainly due to commencement of 60mtpa bulk terminal at Mundra, Gujarat. EBIDTA is expected to surge by 39.8% YoY, from INR2.5bn in 4QFY10 to INR3.5bn in 4QFY11, while EBIDTA margins are expected to improve from 59.9% to 66.3% during the same period. Net profits are expected to increase by 35.7% YoY (14.2% QoQ), from INR1.9bn in 4QFY10 to INR2.6bn in 4QFY11, translating into EPS of INR1.3.
8 APRIL 2011 | 30
Sugar
Better times ahead
+91 22 4031 3473 nirav.shah@antiquelimited.com
Nirav Shah
Company Quarter Ending Balrampur Chini Mills Triveni Engineering Total Mar-11 4,887 5,840 26,399
Sales Mar-10 4,705 17,814 5,949 28,468 Dec-10 5,315 22,470 5,921 33,706
Chg (%) YoY 4 (12) (2) (7) QoQ (8) (30) (1) (22) Mar-11 875 3,084 1,049 5,008
EBITDA Mar-10 814 3,545 508 4,867 Dec-10 724 3,005 700 4,429
Chg (%) YoY 7 (13) 107 3 QoQ 21 3 50 13 Mar-11 320 681 457 1,458
Net Profit Mar-10 276 2,242 143 2,660 Dec-10 234 664 239 1,136
Chg (%) YoY 16 (70) 220 (45) QoQ 37 3 91 28
Shree Renuka Sugars 15,671
Balrampur Chini Mills

BCML is expected to post revenues of INR4.9bn in 6QFY11, an increase of 4% YoY. On the performance of sugar division, we expect volumes to rise by 38% to 155,000mt and average realisations to decline by 14% to INR27,500/mt. We expect OPM to expand by 60bps to 17.9% on account of higher contribution per tonne of sugar sold. Accordingly, operating profits should rise by 8% to INR875m. Capital charges should decline by 2% to INR475m on account of lower interest outgo. We expect net profits to rise by 16% to INR320m.
Shree Renuka Sugars

We anticipate Renuka to report a revenue de-growth of 12% YoY to INR15.7bn in 2QFY11 on the back of lower contribution from trading operations. Due to lower inventory levels at Brazilian operations, the same may not contribute significantly to the topline. Margins are expected to remain stable at 19.7% as profitability on domestic operations will witness significant improvement due to higher exports. Accordingly, operating profits should decline by 13% to INR3.1bn. We expect the company to post net profits of INR681m as against INR2.2bn in 2QFY10.
Triveni Engineering & Industries

For 2QFY11, we expect TEILs net sales to remain stable at INR5.8bn, primarily led by better performance from the engineering division and higher sugar volumes. Engineering division should post a healthy growth of 18% in revenues. We expect OPM to expand by 940bps to 18% leading to operating profits growth of 107% to INR1.05bn. Margin expansion should be on account of improving profitability of sugar division and stable margins at engineering segments. With lower debt and working capital requirements coupled with absence of capex, we expect capital charges to remain stable. We expect TEIL to post profits (before extra-ordinary) of INR457m as against INR143m in 2QFY10.
8 APRIL 2011 | 31
Utilities
Not enough spark
+91 22 4031 3441 abhineet@antiquelimited.com +91 22 4031 3418 mohit.kumar@antiquelimited.com
Abhineet Anand
Mohit Kumar
Company Quarter Ending CESC Lanco Infratech Navabharat Ventures NTPC Power Grid PTC Tata Power Total Mar-11 8,843 25,228 2,331 26,273 17,280 66,679 143,983
Sales Mar-10 8,100 23,419 3,153 123,534 22,307 12,430 26,439 53,716 Dec-10 9,390 15,614 2,466 134,965 20,521 17,575 26,176 42,014 268,721
Chg (%) YoY 9 8 (26) 17 18 39 29 24 19 QoQ (6) 62 (5) 7 28 (2) 31 59 21 Mar-11 2,577 5,607 693 36,488 21,700 215 3,110 12,720 83,109
EBITDA Mar-10 2,020 5,990 1,234 26,657 18,207 90 2,714 13,498 70,410 Dec-10 2,530 4,799 556 38,383 17274 406 2,470 10,546 76,965
Chg (%) YoY 28 (6) (44) 37 19 138 15 (6) 18 QoQ 2 17 25 (5) 26 (47) 26 21 8 Mar-11 1,121 1,404 614 21,503 7,240 232 2,650 7,746 42,511
Net Profit Mar-10 1,059 1,133 1,100 20,177 7,559 141 1,657 6,603 39,429 Dec-10 1,100 1,640 493 23,769 5912 388 2,511 4,414 40,227
Chg (%) YoY 6 24 (44) 7 (4) 65 60 17 8 QoQ 2 (14) 25 (10) 22 (40) 6 76 6
Reliance Infrastructure 34,176
324,794 273,098
We expect sales growth of 19% for our universe mainly aided by higher revenues from NTPC, Power Grid and Tata Power. We expect profit for our universe to be 8% up on a YoY basis. Net profits for NTPC, Lanco Infratech and PTC are expected to grow by 7%, 24% and 65%, respectively.
Power Grid
The company has commissioned transmission projects worth INR104bn (INR36bn in FY10 and INR68.2bn in 9mFY11). As the company returns are directly correlated with the amount of projects commissioned, we expect the company to report revenue of INR22.3bn, a YoY growth of ~21%.
Lanco Infratech
Lanco is expected to post 8% and 24% YoY growth in revenue and profit for 4QFY11. This will be mainly driven by the EPC and merchant power businesses. At the end of 9mFY11, EPC revenue growth was flat which for the full year is expected to register 3% growth. Further, in the current quarter there would be pick up in the revenues from merchant power which would positively impact the earnings for the quarter. We expect the company to have a profit of INR1.4bn as against INR1.1bn in 4QFY10.
NTPC
The company has reported provisional PAT of INR25bn (+24% YoY), while PAT for the year stands at INR88.2bn (+1% YoY). However, the results are after grossing up the revenue by corporate tax rate. The profit has not grown despite commissioning of 1600MW during the year. While the company used MAT for the first three quarter, it has considered normal tax for the current quarter and fiscal, and hence, higher earnings. The full year impact of change in tax is expected to be in the ~INR7-8bn range.
PTC
PTC is expected to report higher revenue on account of increased sale of units but lower sales realisation on account of lower merchant prices in this quarter. We expect 70% increase in number of units traded. We expect the company to trade ~5.5BU as against 3.3BU in 4QFY10. Consequently, we expect increase of 20% in revenue to INR17.3bn. Being a electricity trader, profitability is based on number of units sold for the company and we expect company to report profit of INR232m (+65% YoY), in line with increased number of units traded.
Tata Power
We estimate company to report revenue of INR66.7bn and a profit of INR7.7bn, a y-o-y increase of 24% and 17% respectively. This increase is mainly on account of higher revenue and profit from its Indonesian JVs which are involved in coal mining businesses. International coal prices over the last one year has moved up 20-30% which is expected to positively impact the earnings of the coal companies.
8 APRIL 2011 | 32
Miscellaneous
Business as usual, no hiccups expected
+91 22 4031 3435 amol.rao@antiquelimited.com +91 22 4031 3473 nirav.shah@antiquelimited.com
Amol Rao
Nirav Shah
+91 22 4031 3450 rajesh.zawar@antiquelimited.com

Company Quarter Ending Aditya Birla Nuvo Amtek Auto Ess Dee Aluminium Havells India IL&FS Transportation Maharashtra Seamless Mahindra Holidays Opto Circuits (I) Rainbow Papers REI Agro Shiv Vani Oil & Gas Sterlite Technologies West Coast Paper Total 17,291 4,300 1,954 18,535 8,804 4,200 970 3,721 1,281 9,555 3,650 6,451 3,116 98,270 Sales Mar-11 Mar-10 13,510 3,403 1,588 13,921 NA 4,053 1,302 3,345 1,099 12,143 10,004 2,994 6,624 1,714 75,700 Dec-10 17,150 4,319 1,869 14,967 7,337 4,065 1,414 4,177 1,065 9,602 13,526 3,758 5,791 2,958 91,998 Chg (%) YoY 28 26 23 33 NA 4 (25) 11 17 (21) 44 22 (3) 82 30 QoQ 1 (0) 5 24 20 3 (31) (11) 20 (0) 7 (3) 11 5 7 Mar-11 2,159 1,580 586 1,348 2,377 1,672 207 1,098 292 1,864 2,578 1,762 316 753 18,591 EBITDA Mar-10 2,006 1,311 358 988 NA 1,103 508 1,110 212 1,438 2,285 1,515 1,101 297 14,231 Dec-10 2,417 1,207 540 1,156 2,207 1,044 488 1,228 223 1,985 2,602 1,812 431 718 18,057 Chg (%) YoY 8 21 64 37 NA 52 (59) (1) 38 30 13 16 (71) 154 31 QoQ (11) 31 9 17 8 60 (58) (11) 31 (6) (1) (3) (27) 5 3 Mar-11 919 448 413 583 725 787 164 719 103 641 698 618 76 353 7,249 Net Profit Mar-10 1,457 424 293 (198) NA 751 322 661 78 324 519 470 722 (12) 5,811 Dec-10 1,004 583 381 635 616 757 311 957 104 814 797 700 171 8,114
Rajesh Zawar
Chg (%) YoY (37) 6 41 (394) NA 5 (49) 9 32 98 34 32 (89) 25 QoQ (8) (23) 9 (8) 18 4 (47) (25) (1) (21) (12) (12) (55) 24 (11)
S.Kumars Nationwide 14,443
285 (3,042)
Ess Dee Aluminium

Consolidation of India Foils Ltd. with the company and improvement in utilisation capacity should help Ess Dee register a QoQ improvement of 5% in revenues to INR1.9bn. In this quarter, we expect net profits to settle at INR413m (+9% QoQ).
Maharashtra Seamless
The company should register robust sales of seamless pipes on the back of sustained buoyancy in the domestic E&P segment while civic infrastructure projects generate healthy offtake of ERW pipes. In this quarter, we expect operating profits of INR1.7bn and net profits of INR787m (+4% YoY).
Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India

We expect the company to clock revenues of INR970m, as it slowly increases the pace towards new memberships while maintaining subscription fees at last year's levels. In this quarter, we expect operating margins to settle at 21% with net profits at INR164m.
Opto Circuits (India)

Opto Circuits (India) should register a jump of 11% in revenues to INR3.7bn, as sales of new products in the invasive and noninvasive space gather momentum. EBIDTA margin should settle at 30% (-300bps YoY) on account of the Cardiac Sciences acquisition, and net profits at INR719m (+9% YoY).
Shiv Vani Oil & Gas Exploration Services

On a YoY basis, the company should register a jump in drilling revenues as it operates its full complement of 40 rigs and 10 seismic crews. We estimate revenues to grow 22% YoY to INR3.7bn. EBIDTA margin should drop 300bps to 48% on account of higher expenses on consumables like drilling fluids. We estimate company's net profits at INR618m (+32% YoY).
8 APRIL 2011 | 33
Sterlite Technologies
In this quarter, we expect revenue growth to be subdued as the company executes lower margin orders in the power cables vertical, which were accepted in 2QFY11. Margins could drop by 1,200bps to 5%, as poor margins in the power cables segment and flattish offtake in the telecom solutions business affect operations. We estimate company's revenues at INR6bn with net profits of INR76m (-90% YoY).
West Coast Paper Mills

We have estimated revenues at INR3.1bn (+83% YoY), having assumed 93% throughput for the months of Jan-Mar'10. Margins should improve by 680bps YoY to 24.2% due to benefits of scale and low base of the corresponding period. We estimate company's net profits at INR353m (vs. a loss of INR12m in 4QFY10).
Rainbow Papers
The company should post revenues of INR1.3m (+17% YoY) with margins of 23%. We estimate company's net profits at INR103m (+32% YoY).
Havells India
We have estimated revenues at INR18.5bn (+33% YoY), having assumed an upward trajectory in domestic sales in addition to an improvement in Sylvania's revenues on account of higher sales in emerging economies of Latin America and Asia. Margins should stabilise at 7% as Sylvania continues to rationalise operations. We estimate company's net profits at INR583m (vs. a loss of INR198m in 4QFY10).
Amtek Auto
On a standalone basis, we estimate revenues of INR4.3bn (+26% YoY), on the back of robust performance of auto sector, wherein despatches have demonstrated an upward trajectory. Margins should ease of 200bps to 37% on account of marginally higher metal prices. We estimate company's net profits at INR448m (+6% YoY) on account of higher capital charges.
S. Kumars Nationwide
SKNL is expected to report a 44% YoY growth in revenues to INR14.4bn in 4QFY11 as a result of robust growth rate in the TWS SBU coupled with a higher contribution from HMX. Margins are expected to contract to 17.8% on the back of lower profitability at the international operations i.e. HMX and Leggiuno. Accordingly, operating profits should rise by 13% to INR2.6bn. We expect net profits to grow by 35% to INR698m.
REI Agro
REI is expected to report a 21% YoY decline in revenues to INR9.6bn in 4QFY11 on account of lower volumes of basmati rice. Margins are expected to expand by 770bps to 19.5% leading to operating profits rising by 30% to INR1.9bn. Lower interest costs coupled with marginal increase in depreciation should help PBT rise by 100% to INR979m. We expect net profits to grow by 98% to INR641m.
8 APRIL 2011 | 34
Results preview summary

Company Quarter Ending Automobiles Ashok Leyland Bajaj Auto Bosch Container Corp. Escorts Exide Industries Hero Honda Motors M&M Maruti Suzuki Tata Motors Total Cement ACC Ambuja Cement Shree Cement UltraTech Cement Total FMCG & Retail Asian Paints Britannia Industries Colgate Palmolive Dabur India Godrej Consumer Hindustan Unilever ITC Jyothy Laboratories Kansai Nerolac Marico Nestle India Pantaloon Retail Titan Industries United Breweries United Spirits Total Industrials ABB BGR Energy BHEL L&T Siemens Suzlon Tecpro Systems Total Infosys TCS Wipro CMC Patni Persistent Total 15,286 17,200 162,017 158,376 27,826 58,181 10,123 14,559 16,598 135,591 133,749 22,261 61,220 7,418 20,506 12,511 84,052 113,227 25,381 44,330 4,620 5 4 19 18 25 (5) 36 15 26 32 17 27 (6) 18 25 (25) 37 93 40 10 31 119 47 5 6 5 8 7 4 5 1,146 1,978 35,443 24,131 3,617 7,642 2,025 75,982 25,596 33,220 17,572 999 386 461 78,234 29 1,791 24,873 20,508 2,861 5,350 1,783 57,194 20,220 23,390 15,094 917 618 383 60,622 113 1,414 18,097 12,385 3,628 2,440 516 38,592 23,640 29,000 16,344 879 394 428 70,685 3,869 10 42 18 26 43 14 33 27 42 16 9 (38) 20 29 914 40 96 95 (0) 213 293 97 8 15 8 14 (2) 8 11 779 1,204 25,968 16,186 2,416 3,053 1,162 50,769 18,502 25,330 13,421 477 208 362 58,300 66 1,083 19,096 13,374 1,811 (1,970) 898 34,358 16,170 20,010 12,361 443 193 397 49,574 68 876 13,382 8,070 2,418 (2,540) 187 22,461 17,800 23,700 13,259 454 214 362 55,789 1,073 11 36 21 33 (255) 30 48 14 27 9 8 8 (9) 18 1,052 37 94 101 (0) (220) 520 126 4 7 1 5 (3) 5 21,956 11,611 5,876 10,395 10,196 49,200 59,619 2,233 5,451 7,447 18,263 28,799 16,624 7,943 15,804 271,418 18,768 9,303 5,166 8,488 5,092 43,158 50,538 1,898 4,238 6,023 14,798 20,576 13,112 5,734 12,521 20,996 10,800 5,582 10,800 9,804 50,270 54,535 1,484 5,601 8,177 16,710 27,586 19,546 6,096 15,920 17 25 14 22 100 14 18 18 29 24 23 40 27 39 26 24 5 8 5 (4) 4 (2) 9 50 (3) (9) 9 4 (15) 30 (1) 3 3,408 661 1,524 1,891 1,788 5,027 17,933 340 618 839 3,634 2,477 1,557 868 2,325 44,891 3,109 (116) 1,247 1,620 1,075 5,310 15,401 305 585 861 3,040 2,156 1,165 636 1,702 38,096 3,448 482 746 2,095 1,678 6,243 19,690 167 685 1,093 3,298 2,383 1,950 659 2,730 47,348 10 (671) 22 17 66 (5) 16 12 6 (2) 20 15 34 37 37 18 (1) 37 104 (10) 7 (19) (9) 103 (10) (23) 10 4 (20) 32 (15) (5) 2,106 482 1,236 1,486 1,296 4,601 12,283 287 351 590 2,349 618 1,091 484 800 30,059 1,898 129 1,034 1,331 918 4,225 10,282 171 331 594 1,971 559 778 344 714 25,278 2,202 373 662 1,541 1,188 5,870 13,891 169 416 776 2,217 472 1,408 298 1,020 32,503 11 274 20 12 41 9 19 68 6 (1) 19 11 40 41 12 19 (4) 29 87 (4) 9 (22) (12) 70 (16) (24) 6 31 (22) 62 (22) (8) 25,424 22,656 9,030 40,865 97,975 22,762 19,902 9,440 19,225 71,330 22,277 17,885 7,804 37,409 85,374 12 14 (4) 113 37 14 27 16 9 15 5,301 5,069 2,138 8,819 21,326 6,552 6,227 3,255 4,158 20,192 3,403 3,140 1,583 7,334 15,461 (19) (19) (34) 112 6 56 61 35 20 38 2,831 2,890 478 3,965 10,164 3,929 4,421 (165) 2,285 10,470 2,489 2,510 334 3,190 8,523 (28) (35) (390) 74 (3) 14 15 43 24 19 36,570 42,247 18,785 10,488 9,080 11,331 52,910 67,038 97,798 364,956 711,202 29,390 33,995 15,804 9,505 6,756 10,280 40,926 53,046 82,808 289,778 22,272 41,771 17,556 9,711 8,377 10,491 51,182 61,211 93,261 316,852 24 24 19 10 34 10 29 26 18 26 24 64 1 7 8 8 8 3 10 5 15 12 4,241 8,345 3,351 2,848 547 1,869 5,384 9,493 7,431 49,798 93,306 3,784 7,771 2,896 2,201 661 2,152 6,820 8,492 9,673 31,354 75,805 1,660 8,493 1,810 2,807 438 1,591 5,331 9,238 7,335 44,886 83,588 12 7 16 29 (17) (13) (21) 12 (23) 59 23 155 (2) 85 1 25 17 1 3 1 11 12 2,456 6,561 2,418 2,339 305 1,415 4,913 6,647 5,754 28,093 60,901 2,227 5,287 2,026 1,727 415 1,345 5,988 5,739 6,566 10,786 42,104 434 6,671 2,105 2,285 255 1,244 4,290 6,172 5,652 24,571 53,678 10 24 19 35 (27) 5 (18) 16 (12) 160 45 466 (2) 15 2 19 14 15 8 2 14 13 Mar-11 Sales Mar-10 Dec-10 Chg (%) YoY QoQ Mar-11 EBITDA Mar-10 Dec-10 Chg (%) YoY QoQ Mar-11 Net Profit Mar-10 Dec-10 Chg (%) YoY QoQ
572,289 632,685
219,412 263,907
449,009 391,395 304,627 74,742 102,440 81,738 3,014 1,971 2,021 265,926 59,440 77,380 70,023 2,365 2,098 1,717 71,060 96,630 78,202 2,783 1,848 1,949
Information Technology
213,023 252,472
8 APRIL 2011 | 35

Company Quarter Ending Media IBN 18 Den Networks Dish TV Hathway Cable Sun TV Network UTV Software Comm Zee Entertainment Total Metals Graphite India Hindalco Industries Hindustan Zinc NALCO Prakash Industries Sterlite Industries JSPL JSW Steel Sesa Goa 3,360 68,841 29,282 18,565 4,493 86,543 32,665 64,684 33,000 3,386 54,044 24,985 4,384 16,260 4,643 71,108 31,756 54,807 28,156 73,394 3,375 59,746 26,015 3,471 14,432 3,823 83,325 31,740 60,026 24,987 73,974 714,962 366,655 122,330 83,650 339,025 803,332 23,887 185864 36,276 597,890 (1) 27 17 (9) 14 (3) 22 3 18 17 2 9 19 16 20 42 36 32 28 32 18 60 27 28 18 28 11 16 18 15 32 20 27 NA (4) 158 35 (10) (30) 12 (0) 15 13 15 29 18 4 3 8 32 11 9 13 12 23 21 6 22 23 1 (6) 5 22 739 9,117 17,182 1,185 5,753 820 26,070 17,449 13,039 18,307 28,150 30,811 42,562 180,373 13,280 7,682 15,618 10,745 44,990 11,006 101,656 3,265 100,787 982 8,354 15,548 1,284 5,411 990 20,685 14,587 13,234 15,030 30,971 31,307 47,502 732 7,401 14,318 1,109 3,896 717 19,787 15,987 10,164 12,306 17,957 28,205 34,246 (25) 9 11 (8) 6 (17) 26 20 (1) 22 (9) (2) (10) 3 18 123 15 (18) (38) 65 25 44 10 4 19 34 20 13 34 16 8 23 19 NA 6 (497) 71 11 12 27 1 23 20 7 48 14 32 9 28 49 57 9 24 30 82 1 17 71 65 (10) (10) (6) 6 425 5,960 14,746 684 3,935 500 13,263 11,101 4,555 14,505 17,788 16,207 14,115 556 6,639 12,920 725 3,915 737 13,809 9,634 6,110 12,129 20,849 21,623 32,410 442 4,603 12,428 702 2,560 551 11,011 9,511 2,917 10,653 11,075 15,135 9,489 75,942 1,874 2,730 9,676 2,110 16,348 9,080 57,618 1,708 51,360 (24) (10) 14 (6) 1 (32) (4) 15 (25) 20 (15) (25) (56) (16) (63) 60 6 (48) (66) 59 22 64 15 (17) 19 38 4 15 21 (9) 24 14 16 NA 22 4,556 56 (11) (5) 26 (4) 29 19 (3) 54 (9) 20 17 56 36 61 7 49 34 254 5 (0) 88 17 (25) (21) (6) 6 (1) 30 1 (3) 9 19 (8) 159 17 6 (31) (14) (48) 3 1 40 (3) 2,196 2,678 4,076 2,261 5,700 2,674 7,501 27,085 1,688 2,463 3,031 NA 3,910 1,306 6,493 18,891 2,362 2,644 3,732 2,271 5,970 2,559 7,549 27,087 30 9 34 NA 46 105 16 43 (7) 1 9 (0) (5) 4 (1) (0) 374 294 671 425 3,581 684 1,699 7,728 24 270 349 NA 3,309 407 1,836 6,195 321 265 666 415 5,018 534 1,541 8,761 1,455 9 93 NA 8 68 (7) 25 16 11 1 2 (29) 28 10 (12) 213 130 (775) (160) 2,049 366 1,220 3,042 (225) 170 (598) NA 1,651 305 1,263 2,566 198 89 (443) 2,255 400 1,509 4,007 (195) (24) 30 NA 24 20 (3) 19 8 47 75 NA (9) (9) (19) (24) Mar-11 Sales Mar-10 Dec-10 Chg (%) YoY QoQ Mar-11 EBITDA Mar-10 Dec-10 Chg (%) YoY QoQ Mar-11 Net Profit Mar-10 Dec-10 Chg (%) YoY QoQ
Monnet Ispat & Energy 3,981
Steel Authority of India 125,150 122,298 113,128 Tata Steel (Standalone) 80,323 Total Oil & Gas BPCL Essar Oil GAIL India HPCL IOC Oil India ONGC Petronet LNG Reliance Industries Total Pharma Aurobindo Pharma Cadila Healthcare Indoco Remedies Ipca Laboratories Lupin Sun Pharma Jubilant Lifesciences Total Real Estate DLF DB Realty HDIL IBREL Phoenix Mills Sobha Developers Unitech 25,240 2,323 4,160 1,566 464 3,621 7,707 19,944 NA 4,341 607 345 4,008 11,074 40,319 24,799 2,733 4,554 3,997 451 3629 6,598 46,760 10,780 10,820 1,226 4,438 15,616 11,690 7,984 62,553 9,128 8,466 1,105 3,817 13,282 10,157 6,048 52,002 11,922 11,668 1,155 4,664 15,102 16011 8,690 69,211 450,083 147,933 88,438 414,560 989,914 24,237 173,943 38,255 728,290 375,509 104,540 65,221 313,213 772,299 18,321 147,133 23,855 575,700 Tata Steel (Consolidated) 327,731 275,038 290,895 798,295 690,863
174,575 138,620 11,272 3,440 13,637 13,139 72,986 6,658 81,290 2,262 91,360 7,284 7,590 13,331 6,267 27,275 12,281 113,138 3,456 95,450
101,577 120,433 6,628 2,873 9,630 3,971 19,128 6,849 45,639 1,599 54,239 17,897 1,800 9,108 7,575 55,568 4,310 37,376 973 47,100
3,055,652 2,395,791 2,558,908
19 309,030 296,044 286,073 (10) (7) 6 (5) 3 (27) (8) (10) 2 (15) (9) (61) 3 (0) 17 (4) 3,245 2,528 151 918 3,921 2,260 1,720 14,743 11,942 999 2,413 477 338 1,072 2,769 20,010 2,724 1,894 126 814 2,924 1,941 1,585 12,009 10,000 NA 2,271 (120) 198 965 2,475 15,789 3,195 2,562 145 910 2,973 3510 1,322 14,616 11,780 1,191 2,665 1,229 327 820 2,088 20,099
8 150,556 2 (1) 4 1 32 (36) 30 1 1 (16) (9) (61) 3 31 33 (0) 2,461 1,636 85 573 2,669 2,406 1,143 10,973 4,950 754 2,166 398 245 493 1,557 10,564
181,707 152,504 2,068 1,188 82 499 2,206 2,635 920 9,599 4,264 NA 1,778 9 157 557 1,634 8,399 1,887 1,620 88 527 2,240 2606 442 9,411 4,657 1,087 2,519 766 238 490 1,114 10,870
Total (exDBRealty) 45,080
8 APRIL 2011 | 36

Company Quarter Ending GE Shipping Essar Shipping Mercator Lines Great Offshore Total Sugar Balrampur Chini Mills Triveni Engineering Total CESC Lanco Infratech Navabharat Ventures NTPC Power Grid PTC Tata Power Total
Grand Total Grand Total Grand Total Ex - Metals Grand Total Ex - Oil & Gas Grand Total 2,409,454 1,983,874 2,104,561 21 14 473,808 386,466 408,851 23 16 289,577 235,760 249,949 23 16 Ex - Metals and Oil & Gas 3,207,749 2,674,737 2,819,523 20 14 654,182 561,042 547,471 17 19 391,154 356,193 325,891 10 20
Sales Mar-11 5,206 8,991 7,561 2,667 29,743 4,887 5,840 26,399 8,843 25,228 2,331 26,273 17,280 66,679 143,983 Mar-10 7,667 8,516 4,820 2,739 4,205 27,948 4,705 17,814 5,949 28,468 8,100 23,419 3,153 123,534 22,307 12,430 26,439 53,716 Dec-10 5,560 8,190 7,777 1,978 4,508 28,013 5,315 22,470 5,921 33,706 9,390 15,614 2,466 134,965 20,521 17,575 26,176 42,014 268,721
Chg (%) YoY (32) 6 57 (3) 26 6 4 (12) (2) (7) 9 8 (26) 17 18 39 29 24 19

24 24 25
EBITDA Mar-11 1,949 3,009 1,100 1,296 3,525 10,879 875 3,084 1,049 5,008 2,577 5,607 693 36,488 21,700 215 3,110 12,720 83,109
963,212 782,838
Chg (%) Dec-10 2,023 2,986 1,380 763 3,098 10,250 724 3,005 700 4,429 2,530 4,799 556 38,383 17274 406 2,470 10,546 76,965
833,544 694,924
Net Profit Mar-11 601 190 (279) 466 2,609 3,586 320 681 457 1,458 1,121 1,404 614 21,503 7,240 232 2,650 7,746 42,511
657,169 541,711 440,133
Chg (%) Dec-10 622 265 18 2,285 3,229 234 664 239 1,136 1,100 1,640 493 23,769 5912 388 2,511 4,414 40,227
584,939 478,395 402,452
QoQ (6) 10 (3) 35 18 6 (8) (30) (1) (22) (6) 62 (5) 7 28 (2) 31 59 21
16 17
Mar-10 3,157 2,676 1,347 1,357 2,521 11,057 814 3,545 508 4,867 2,020 5,990 1,234 26,657 18,207 90 2,714 13,498 70,410
857,085 682,510
YoY (38) 12 (18) (4) 40 (2) 7 (13) 107 3 28 (6) (44) 37 19 138 15 (6) 18
12 12 15
QoQ (4) 1 (20) 70 14 6 21 3 50 13 2 17 25 (5) 26 (47) 26 21 8

12 16 13
Mar-10 2,113 745 2 731 1,922 5,512 276 2,242 143 2,660 1,059 1,133 1,100 20,177 7,559 141 1,657 6,603 39,429
624,684 537,899 417,466
YoY (72) (74) (36) 36 (35) 16 (70) 220 (45) 6 24 (44) 7 (4) 65 60 17 8
5 1 5
QoQ (3) (28) 2,447 14 11 37 3 91 28 2 (14) 25 (10) 22 (40) 6 76 6

12 13 9
Shipping and Logistics
38 (14,499) (826)
Mundra Port and SEZ 5,318
Shree Renuka Sugars 15,671
Utilities & infrastructure
Reliance Infrastructure 34,176
324,794 273,098
6,529,740 5,277,440 5,636,216 6,263,401 5,070,528 5,378,431 5,465,107 4,379,665 4,663,469
16 1,169,392 1,039,815 1,044,768
Ex- FINANCIALS
Company Quarter Ending FINANCIALS Axis Bank Bajaj Auto Finance Bank of Baroda HDFC HDFC Bank ICICI Bank LIC Housing Finance
Net Interest Income Mar-11 17,927 2,800 23,127 11,379 28,048 24,714 3,080 Mar-10 14,601 1,658 17,450 11,282 23,514 20,349 2,980 24,980 6,483 67,215 13,961 2,442 206,912 Dec-10 17,331 2,562 22,923 10,277 27,767 23,117 3,522 32,033 8,367 90,498 16,158 3,232 257,785
Chg (%) YoY 23 69 33 1 19 21 3 29 38 41 16 36 29 QoQ 3 9 1 11 1 7 (13) 1 7 4 0 3 3
Pre Provision Profits Mar-11 17,687 1,650 17,271 12,579 20,599 26,599 2,924 23,563 6,547 61,757 11,799 3,204 206,180 Mar-10 13,838 1,240 16,288 12,819 16,944 23,989 2,857 23,325 5,442 51,939 11,475 2,576 182,730 Dec-10 16,585 1,600 18,512 12,279 20,727 23,426 4,891 23,499 6,338 67,645 12,611 3,113 211,225
Chg (%) YoY 28 33 6 (2) 22 11 2 1 20 19 3 24 13 QoQ 7 3 (7) 2 (1) 14 (40) 0 3 (9) (6) 3 (2) Mar-11 9,419 791 10,436 9,513 10,737 15,709 2,205 12,980 3,430 31,391 6,873 1,976 115,459
Net Income Mar-10 7,649 252 9,063 9,264 8,366 10,056 2,136 11,350 2,644 18,670 5,935 1,400 86,784 Dec-10 8,914 764 10,689 8,909 10,878 14,370 2,135 10,898 3,000 28,281 5,796 1,911 106,544
Chg (%) YoY 23 214 15 3 28 56 3 14 30 68 16 41 33 QoQ 6 3 (2) 7 (1) 9 3 19 14 11 19 3 8
Punjab National Bank 32,285 Shriram Transport Finance 8,952 State Bank Of India Union Bank Yes Bank Total 94,498 16,199 3,328 266,339
8 APRIL 2011 | 37

Company Quarter Ending Miscellaneous Aditya Birla Nuvo Amtek Auto Ess Dee Aluminium Havells India IL&FS Transportation Mahindra Holidays Opto Circuits (I) Rainbow Papers REI Agro Shiv Vani Oil & Gas Sterlite Technologies West Coast Paper Total 17,291 4,300 1,954 18,535 8,804 970 3,721 1,281 9,555 3,650 6,451 3,116 98,270 13,510 3,403 1,588 13,921 NA 4,053 1,302 3,345 1,099 12,143 10,004 2,994 6,624 1,714 75,700 17,150 4,319 1,869 14,967 7,337 4,065 1,414 4,177 1,065 9,602 13,526 3,758 5,791 2,958 91,998 28 26 23 33 NA 4 (25) 11 17 (21) 44 22 (3) 82 30 1 (0) 5 24 20 3 (31) (11) 20 (0) 7 (3) 11 5 7 2,159 1,580 586 1,348 2,377 1,672 207 1,098 292 1,864 2,578 1,762 316 753 18,591 2,006 1,311 358 988 NA 1,103 508 1,110 212 1,438 2,285 1,515 1,101 297 14,231 2,417 1,207 540 1,156 2,207 1,044 488 1,228 223 1,985 2,602 1,812 431 718 18,057 8 21 64 37 NA 52 (59) (1) 38 30 13 16 (71) 154 31 (11) 31 9 17 8 60 (58) (11) 31 (6) (1) (3) (27) 5 3 919 448 413 583 725 787 164 719 103 641 698 618 76 353 7,249 1,457 424 293 (198) NA 751 322 661 78 324 519 470 722 (12) 5,811 1,004 583 381 635 616 757 311 957 104 814 797 700 171 8,114 (37) 6 41 (394) NA 5 (49) 9 32 98 34 32 (89) 25 (8) (23) 9 (8) 18 4 (47) (25) (1) (21) (12) (12) (55) 24 (11) Mar-11 Sales Mar-10 Dec-10 Chg (%) YoY QoQ Mar-11 EBITDA Mar-10 Dec-10 Chg (%) YoY QoQ Mar-11 Net Profit Mar-10 Dec-10 Chg (%) YoY QoQ
Maharashtra Seamless 4,200
S.Kumars Nationwide 14,443
285 (3,042)
8 APRIL 2011 | 38
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP (INR) TP (INR) Return (%) M.Cap (INRbn) Net profit (INRbn) FY11 FY12 EPS (INR) FY11 FY12 PE (x) FY11 FY12 EV/EBITDA (x) FY11 FY12 P/BV (x) Div Yld (%) FY12 FY12 RoE (%) FY12 RoCE (%) FY12 Absolute (%) 1m 12m
AUTOMOBILES
Ashok Leyland Bajaj Auto Bosch Exide Industries Escorts Hero Honda Motors Mahindra & Mahindra Maruti Suzuki Tata Motors BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY BUY BUY 58 1,440 6,642 147 145 1,695 733 1,278 1,291 88 1,585 7,360 177 180 1,614 825 1,450 1,668 53 10 11 20 24 (5) 13 13 29 77 417 209 125 15 338 450 369 762 5.9 26.3 8.6 6.0 1.3 19.0 25.7 22.8 92.3 8.4 30.6 10.5 7.5 1.9 21.5 31.2 25.8 4.4 91.0 273.5 7.1 12.4 99.2 44.5 76.8 6.3 105.6 334.5 8.8 18.0 107.6 50.8 89.2 173.3 13.0 15.8 24.3 20.7 11.7 17.1 16.5 16.6 8.9 9.2 13.6 19.9 16.7 8.1 15.8 14.4 14.3 7.4 8.8 12.6 18.5 14.5 6.5 17.5 13.2 12.1 5.8 6.9 11.5 15.0 11.6 4.9 16.7 10.9 10.6 4.8 1.7 6.1 4.2 3.7 0.8 8.5 3.7 2.3 3.1 3.1 2.1 0.8 0.7 1.6 2.2 1.7 0.6 1.2 18.2 44.9 21.1 21.9 9.7 36.7 26.0 15.9 41.1 19.9 50.5 27.4 32.3 12.0 45.5 31.7 23.2 32.68 13 5 10 5 24 11 11 1 14 4 39 37 20 (11) (14) 39 (9) 62
109.7 145.8
CEMENT
ACC Ambuja Cements HeidelbergCement India JK Lakshmi Cement Shree Cements Ultratech Cements UR UR BUY BUY BUY HOLD 1,129 151 48 56 1,950 1,101 UR UR 60 85 1,902 1,054 NA NA 25 52 (2) (4) 212 232 11 7 68 302 10.8 12.6 1.1 1.4 4.5 14.2 12.6 13.9 1.3 1.7 57.3 8.1 4.8 11.5 66.9 9.1 5.8 14.1 176.1 68.2 19.7 18.7 10.0 4.9 15.2 21.2 16.9 16.7 8.3 4.0 11.1 16.1 11.9 11.5 8.3 4.2 7.2 10.3 9.6 9.1 5.3 4.0 6.2 8.1 2.9 2.8 1.0 0.5 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.5 3.6 0.6 0.5 24.6 17.7 13.2 14.3 24.3 16.1 18.1 23.1 25.4 19.7 19.2 19.3 16 23 41 23 13 9 16 27 (24) (26) (17) (4)
6.1 128.4 18.7 51.9
DIVERSIFIED
Aditya Birla Nuvo BUY 878 990 13 100 3.4 3.7 29.9 32.6 29.4 26.9 15.8 14.4 1.8 0.4 6.7 7.7 16 (8)
FMCG & RETAIL

Asian Paints Britannia Industries Colgate Palmolive India Dabur India Godrej Consumer Products Hindustan Unilever ITC Jyothy Laboratories Kansai Nerolac Marico Nestle India Pantaloon Retail Titan Industries United Breweries United Spirits HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY UR HOLD HOLD 2,551 368 846 100 390 276 183 218 860 139 3,709 295 3,992 477 1,104 2,684 330 836 99 400 286 196 240 844 125 3,781 459 UR 403 1,029 5 (10) (1) (1) 3 4 7 10 (2) (10) 2 56 NA (16) (7) 245 44 115 174 126 596 1,413 18 46 85 358 62 177 115 144 9.2 1.5 4.3 5.7 4.8 21.1 49.3 0.9 2.0 2.9 8.4 2.3 4.6 1.7 3.4 10.8 2.3 4.8 7.1 5.8 24.8 62.2 1.1 2.4 3.4 10.9 3.4 90.6 12.7 31.3 3.3 14.9 9.7 6.5 11.2 36.4 4.7 86.8 10.4 107.4 19.5 35.1 4.1 18.0 11.4 8.1 14.2 44.3 5.6 113.1 14.7 132.4 10.5 41.3 28.2 29.0 27.0 30.7 26.1 28.6 28.3 19.5 23.6 29.3 42.7 28.2 38.6 68.9 39.4 23.8 18.9 24.1 24.4 21.7 24.3 22.4 15.4 19.4 24.7 32.8 20.0 30.2 45.5 26.7 17.8 21.7 22.2 23.6 21.8 24.6 19.6 16.0 13.5 21.3 28.4 8.9 27.5 33.2 18.0 15.0 13.6 18.8 18.1 17.9 20.9 15.1 13.6 11.1 17.1 22.1 6.9 21.7 24.7 13.3 9.6 7.1 23.5 8.5 6.2 13.8 7.1 2.6 4.5 7.2 34.5 1.9 11.2 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.9 1.6 1.7 3.0 1.9 2.5 1.7 0.5 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.2 40.5 37.4 105.6 33.8 35.6 73.2 29.9 14.0 23.4 32.2 97.8 9.5 41.9 12.0 8.9 49.2 26.7 111.3 27.2 38.7 69.1 39.1 14.3 29.7 24.3 131.2 12.9 50.8 10.4 11.6 2 6 2 (1) 4 (2) 6 (4) 13 6 (1) 11 17 (2) 2 25 11 19 20 39 23 38 25 29 22 35 (26) 112 143 (17)
5.9 103.4 2.5 5.1 6.9 28.0
INFRASTRUCTURE
IL&FS TransportationNetworks BUY Mundra Port And SEZ BUY 246 156 330 164 34 5 48 312 4.2 8.2 5.0 11.1 21.5 3.9 26.0 5.4 11.5 39.5 9.5 28.8 9.0 27.4 7.3 18.4 1.9 6.4 1.2 0.5 20.0 19.4 13.8 14.6 25 18 (16) 5
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Infosys Technologies Patni Computers Systems Persistent Systems Tata Consultacy Services Wipro KPIT Cummins HOLD BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY 3,246 476 413 1,199 472 175 3,404 625 525 1,288 510 196 5 31 27 7 8 12 1,864 64 17 2,347 1,160 14 68.8 6.5 1.3 89.8 56.1 1.0 83.0 120.4 7.5 1.7 110.3 1.2 48.1 33.7 45.9 23.1 11.8 145.2 55.6 43.7 56.3 14.1 27.0 9.9 12.3 26.1 20.5 14.8 22.3 8.6 9.4 21.3 12.4 21.2 6.0 9.1 19.9 15.8 8.6 16.1 5.2 5.7 13.6 6.9 5.7 1.2 1.7 9.5 2.1 1.2 0.6 2.2 2.8 0.6 26.0 13.9 18.4 44.5 17.1 32.5 16.9 22.1 54.4 16.8 7 6 6 8 6 16 24 (1) NA 52 10 48
MEDIA
Den Networks Dish TV India Hathway Cable & Datacom IBN 18 Sun TV Network BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY 92 67 110 104 449 659 125 164 86 183 146 624 683 123 79 28 67 40 39 4 (2) 12 71 16 25 177 27 122 0.4 (2.3) (0.2) 0.4 6.6 1.3 5.5 0.7 (1.0) 0.2 1.3 8.9 1.7 6.0 3.2 (2.2) (1.2) 1.1 17.0 32.4 5.6 5.1 (0.9) 1.4 3.5 22.5 42.5 6.2 28.2 18.0 9.5 36.8 9.6 21.7 12.0 18.2 17.3 6.5 15.4 7.1 12.9 9.6 12.9 14.0 1.6 4.4 1.8 6.1 6.1 2.5 2.7 1.5 1.6 8.9 (6.0) 2.3 20.7 30.6 16.0 13.3 11.5 0.6 4.4 15.5 41.2 12.4 26.7 (8) 12 5 9 9 23 (1) (56) 74 NA 4 4 42 (8) (31.0) (72.9) (90.1) 92.1 26.4 20.3 22.4 77.5 29.5 19.9 15.5 20.3
UTV Software Communications BUY Zee Entertainment Enterprises HOLD
8 APRIL 2011 | 39
Valuation Guide
METALS
Graphite India Hindalco Industries Hindustan Zinc Jindal Steel & Power JSW Steel Monnet Ispat Prakash Industries Sesa Goa Steel Authority of India Sterlite Industries TATA Steel BUY BUY UR UR HOLD BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD BUY 97 216 139 706 1,001 529 95 316 174 175 638 106 275 UR 766 985 610 221 348 168 183 742 10 27 NA 8 (2) 15 133 10 (3) 5 16 19 414 589 660 223 34 13 271 718 587 612 1.6 32.5 41.7 43.7 14.2 2.5 2.2 42.0 52.8 44.4 62.2 2.0 39.0 48.6 48.3 17.0 3.5 2.3 34.4 53.1 82.1 69.4 8.4 17.0 9.9 46.1 60.6 43.0 16.3 47.2 12.8 13.2 64.1 10.3 20.4 11.5 50.9 67.9 61.0 17.0 38.7 12.9 24.4 71.5 11.5 12.7 14.1 15.3 16.5 12.3 5.8 6.7 13.6 13.2 10.0 9.4 10.6 12.1 13.9 14.7 8.7 5.6 8.2 13.5 7.2 8.9 6.8 6.1 9.0 10.5 8.1 10.8 4.5 3.0 8.4 6.5 6.8 6.0 6.1 6.6 9.0 6.1 8.5 4.2 3.1 8.8 3.4 5.8 1.1 2.2 2.2 3.8 1.3 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.5 3.1 0.8 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.9 1.1 1.3 12.7 13.9 18 28 8.9 16.4 12.5 20.4 13.0 17.1 16.9 17.7 12.9 18 17 9.9 13.9 13.6 25.9 14.0 17.0 13.2 13 3 7 6 9 (3) 23 16 15 5 6 8 17 11 (0) (20) 21 (59) (34) (32) (20) (7)
OIL & GAS

Bharat Petroleum Corp. Essar oil GAIL India Hindustan Petroluem Corp. Indian Oil Company Oil India Oil & Natural Gas Corp. Petronet LNG Reliance Industries BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY 614 133 473 367 336 1,337 292 128 1,042 667 171 519 395 423 1,622 365 143 1,102 9 29 10 8 26 21 25 11 6 222 181 600 124 815 321 2,495 96 3,411 12.1 6.3 39.3 9.7 81.2 30.8 210.4 5.0 199.8 16.0 9.1 43.1 10.0 78.8 41.6 4.6 31.0 28.5 34.3 54.1 6.7 34.0 29.5 33.3 140.7 30.2 9.6 77.8 14.8 28.7 15.3 12.9 9.8 10.4 10.4 19.2 17.1 11.3 19.9 13.9 12.4 10.1 9.5 9.7 13.4 13.4 15.4 10.6 9.8 12.2 8.5 5.0 5.6 12.0 10.3 12.1 8.6 9.1 11.1 8.3 4.4 5.1 9.8 8.1 1.3 2.9 2.6 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.2 3.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 3.3 4.0 2.5 2.7 1.9 0.8 11 14 18.8 7.9 13.0 18.5 19.7 23.4 14.0 5.9 11.4 21.4 5.2 11.6 22.1 23.2 16.3 12.9 10 19 7 15 9 8 11 13 7 21 (9) 10 19 14 16 8 59 (8)
33.8 128.2 226.8 7.2 254.6 28.0 6.7 61.1
PHARMACEUTICALS
Aurobindo Pharma Cadila Healthcare Indoco Remedies Ipca Laboatories Lupin Jubilant Lifesciences Sun Pharma BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY UR BUY 201 829 443 308 408 182 441 355 867 505 394 514 UR 527 76 5 14 28 26 NA 19 59 170 5 39 182 29 454 6.3 6.5 0.5 2.4 8.8 2.3 14.9 7.9 8.1 0.8 3.4 10.9 2.8 18.2 21.7 32.0 39.2 19.2 19.9 14.2 15.0 27.3 39.4 63.1 27.3 24.5 17.4 20.9 9.3 25.9 11.3 16.0 20.5 12.8 29.5 7.4 21.0 7.0 11.3 16.6 10.5 21.1 7.1 17.0 7.7 10.9 14.7 10.2 23.0 5.6 13.0 4.5 7.8 11.5 8.0 16.3 1.9 5.6 1.3 2.7 4.2 5.7 4.1 0.5 0.2 3.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 22.3 22.3 19.3 18.5 29.1 9.5 22.4 28.5 30.7 20.6 26.8 28.7 11.5 21.4 12 10 11 17 4 11 6 6 44 14 17 25 (47) 23
REAL ESTATE
D B Realty DLF HDIL Indiabulls Real Estate Phoenix Mills Sobha Developers Unitech UR BUY HOLD BUY BUY BUY UR 113 270 196 143 200 324 48 UR 294 196 166 274 400 UR NA 9 0 16 37 23 NA 27 458 81 58 29 32 125 3.8 17.6 7.3 2.7 0.9 1.9 8.4 4.8 18.7 8.3 4.0 1.5 2.3 10.9 15.6 10.4 17.7 6.7 6.0 19.5 3.2 19.6 11.0 18.9 9.2 10.2 23.0 4.2 7.2 26.0 11.1 21.4 33.1 16.6 15.0 5.7 24.5 10.4 15.5 19.5 14.1 11.5 6.1 15.7 10.0 19.5 28.1 12.7 15.4 4.0 15.2 8.0 17.3 14.0 11.0 10.7 0.7 1.5 0.8 0.6 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.9 12.2 6.0 7.8 3.6 8.2 10.9 8.4 16.4 6.8 8.4 2.7 7.2 9.5 8.5 (0) 23 22 33 15 22 35 NA (19) (35) (10) 4 8 (38)
SHIPPING & LOGISTICS

Container Corp. of India UR 1,227 113 292 290 45 UR 173 333 457 65 NA 54 14 58 43 159 69 44 11 11 8.6 0.4 3.8 1.4 0.9 10.1 3.7 4.8 2.0 1.5 66.4 0.6 25.1 38.8 3.7 77.4 6.0 31.7 53.8 5.7 18.5 174.0 11.6 7.5 12.3 15.9 18.8 9.2 5.4 8.0 12.6 15.0 10.2 7.9 6.7 10.4 10.2 9.1 5.8 6.0 2.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.6 2.7 1.4 2.2 17.7 4.7 7.6 14.1 6.3 25.0 9.0 6.4 9.5 6.3 4 23 12 24 26 (13) 15 (8) (34) (26) Essar Shipping Ports & Logistics BUY Great Eastern Shipping Co Great Offshore Mercator Lines BUY BUY BUY
SUGAR
Balrampur Chini Mills Shree Renuka Sugars Triveni Engineering & Ind BUY BUY BUY 77 77 103 87 117 103 13 52 (0) 20 52 27 2.0 6.4 0.9 2.4 7.0 2.0 7.6 9.6 3.5 9.2 10.5 7.6 10.1 8.0 29.3 8.4 8.0 13.6 6.2 5.6 16.0 5.1 4.6 8.0 1.2 1.5 2.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 15.6 21.9 9.5 15.7 20.5 8.4 12 7 (1) (16) 10 (24)
8 APRIL 2011 | 40
Valuation Guide
UTILITIES & INDUSTRIALS

ABB Adani Power BGR Bharat Heavy Electricals CESC Lanco Infrastructure Larsen & Toubro NTPC Power Grid PTC India Reliance Infrastructure Siemens Suzlon Energy Tata Power Tecpro Systems SELL UR BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY SELL BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY 806 120 536 2,195 318 45 1,670 186 105 95 693 895 53 1,320 304 533 UR 779 2,601 391 54 1,878 186 116 115 1,065 861 61 1,253 408 (34) NA 45 19 23 22 13 (0) 11 21 54 (4) 15 (5) 34 171 262 39 1,075 40 107 1,016 1,535 486 28 185 305 95 313 15 1.7 10.6 3.1 57.3 2.5 5.7 41.1 90.0 26.7 1.1 15.0 10.5 (4.9) 18.1 1.4 3.8 21.8 4.0 67.5 3.0 7.6 53.1 93.3 30.1 1.1 16.0 12.7 6.2 24.0 1.9 8.0 4.9 43.6 117.0 20.1 2.4 68.2 10.9 5.8 3.9 65.6 31.3 (2.6) 73.5 27.9 17.9 100.9 10.0 55.7 137.8 23.9 3.2 88.2 11.3 6.5 3.9 70.2 37.6 3.3 97.2 37.1 24.6 12.3 18.8 15.8 18.7 24.5 17.1 18.2 24.4 10.6 28.6 (20.4) 18.0 10.9 45.1 12.0 9.6 15.9 13.3 13.9 18.9 16.4 16.1 24.6 9.9 23.8 16.0 13.6 10.9 63.1 28.0 6.9 12.7 13.1 5.8 18.7 12.5 11.5 26.9 17.9 20.4 20.3 8.9 4.1 27.8 12.5 7.7 10.6 14.3 3.4 14.7 11.5 10.4 24.7 17.3 17.3 8.4 6.8 2.7 5.8 2.7 3.2 4.4 0.8 2.2 3.4 2.1 2.0 1.2 0.7 21.4 1.5 2.1 2.3 0.1 2.6 1.7 1.9 0.9 2.5 1.5 1.6 3.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.5 12.9 22.8 37.5 27.6 8.6 17.3 18.1 12.8 12.3 6.8 6.4 24.2 9.2 15.1 22.3 18.0 8.7 24.0 34.4 3.1 11.4 12.2 10.4 8.3 4.7 2.0 34.5 9.0 5.4 21.5 13 10 24 8 2 23 6 3 7 6 17 5 15 7 14 (4) 1 (2) (13) (18) (18) 1 (12) (5) (16) (37) 21 (29) (4) NA
Company
Reco
CMP (INR)
TP (INR)
Return (%)
M.Cap (INRbn)
Net profit (INRbn) FY11 FY12
EPS (INR) FY11 FY12
PE (x) FY11 FY12
NNPA Ratio (%) FY11 FY12
P/AdjBV (x) Div Yld (%) RoE (%) FY11 FY12 FY12
RoA (%) Absolute (%) FY12 1m 12m
FINANCIALS
Axis Bank Bajaj Auto Finance HDFC HDFC Bank ICICI Bank LIC Housing Finance Punjab National Bank Shriram Transprt finance State Bank Of India YES Bank Bank of Baroda Union Bank of India BUY BUY HOLD BUY BUY UR BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY 1,446 720 716 2,355 1,104 231 1,199 815 2,813 330 980 351 1,580 945 714 2,310 1,320 UR 1,340 950 3,214 330 1,063 407 9 31 (0) (2) 20 NA 12 17 14 (0) 8 16 594 26 1050 1095 1272 110 378 184 1786 115 357 177 33 2 33 39 53 9 45 6 114 7 40 22 40 3 38 49 67 10 55 6 143 8 45 29 82 59 23 86 47 19 144 57 179 21 109 43 98 72 27 107 60 22 173 73 203 25 114 53 17.7 24.4 30.9 27.5 23.4 12.5 8.3 14.4 15.7 15.6 9.0 8.2 14.8 10.0 26.7 22.0 18.4 10.7 6.9 11.1 13.8 13.4 8.6 6.6 0.4 5.3 0.4 0.6 1.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.4 9.5 0.4 0.6 1.3 0.2 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.2 2.5 6.1 4.6 2.6 3.1 2.0 5.0 2.8 3.0 2.2 2.0 1.2 0.1 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 0.2 1.5 1.5 2.2 1.7 19.6 16.8 21.0 18.4 11.6 23.1 23.2 26.4 15.8 19.9 21.0 23.0 1.6 3.2 2.7 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.4 4.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 13 15 7 8 9 19 12 4 7 22 9 8 24 114 28 22 12 30 18 49 33 27 46 15
Company
Reco
CMP (INR)
TP (INR)
Return (%)
M.Cap (INRbn)
Net profit (INRbn) FY11 FY12
EPS (INR) FY11 FY12
PE (x) FY11 FY12
EV/EBITDA (x) FY11 FY12
P/BV (x) Div Yld (%) FY12 FY12
RoE (%) FY12
RoCE (%) FY12
Absolute (%) 1m 12m
MISCELLANEOUS
Amtek Auto Ess Dee Aluminium Gayatri Projects Havell's India Maharashtra Seamless Mahindra Holidays Nava Bharat Ventures Opto Circuits Rainbow Papers S Kumars Nationwide Shiv Vani Oil & Gas Sterlite Technologies West Coast Paper Mills BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY 160 437 241 390 364 389 282 302 63 64 322 67 99 177 540 494 466 519 509 382 327 75 89 453 79 144 11 23 105 19 43 31 36 8 19 40 41 18 46 35 14 3 49 26 33 22 56 6 18 15 24 6 1.6 1.5 0.7 3.1 3.2 0.8 3.0 3.6 0.4 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.0 4.0 1.7 0.9 4.0 3.9 1.3 3.7 5.1 0.9 3.8 2.3 2.6 1.2 6.9 52.8 47.9 24.8 45.6 10.1 33.4 19.2 4.1 9.5 44.9 4.5 15.2 17.2 61.1 64.6 32.0 54.7 15.4 40.9 27.3 10.5 12.7 50.3 6.9 18.4 23.2 8.3 5.0 15.8 8.0 38.5 8.4 15.7 15.3 6.7 7.2 14.8 6.5 9.3 7.2 3.7 12.2 6.7 25.3 6.9 11.1 6.0 5.0 6.4 9.8 5.3 6.6 7.2 3.4 8.8 4.9 27.1 6.4 12.6 10.5 5.0 6.2 8.0 6.3 5.4 5.8 2.9 6.6 3.6 16.5 7.8 9.2 4.9 4.2 5.4 5.9 5.0 0.7 1.7 0.7 4.8 0.9 5.8 1.2 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.3 0.5 1.9 0.8 1.7 0.5 2.6 1.5 3.2 0.3 0.2 2.0 7.4 27.3 19.4 47.4 14.1 24.7 17.3 32.2 33.4 15.5 15.3 20.3 16.0 8.9 25.0 20.7 40.8 21.5 12.4 10.5 26.5 21.3 14.9 12.6 24.7 9.5 45 7 12 15 8 10 25 19 20 19 22 40 23 45 2 (43) 27 (2) (28) (32) 36 99 (0) (29) (23) 38
Important Disclaimer:
This report is prepared and published on behalf of the research team of Antique Stock Broking Limited (ASBL). ASBL, its holding company and associate companies are a full service, integrated investment banking, investment advisory and brokerage group. Our research analysts and sales persons provide important inputs for our investment banking and allied activities. We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained herein, so far as it relates to current and historical information, but do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing in the material and may be subject to change from time to time without any notice. ASBL or any persons connected with it do not solicit any action based on this report and do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own judgment and take their own professional advice before acting on this information. The research reports are for private circulation and are not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons in whose possession this document comes, should inform themselves about and observe, any such restrictions. ASBL its holding company and associate companies or any of its connected persons including its directors or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained, views and opinions expressed in this publication. ASBL its holding company and associate companies, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. ASBL, its holding company and associate companies, directors, officers or employees may, from time to time, deal in the securities mentioned herein, as principal or agent. ASBL its holding company and associate companies may have acted as an Investment Advisor or Merchant Banker for some of the companies (or its connected persons) mentioned in this report. The research reports and all the information opinions and conclusions contained in them are proprietary information of ASBL and the same may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part without express consent of ASBL. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Analyst ownership in stock No
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I N D I A R ES E A RC H

4QFY11 Results Preview Straining for growth

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED

4QFY11 RESULTS PREVIEW

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED

FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

BSE Consumer Durables136,442

3QFY11 Net Interest Income BSE Bankex

Provisions & Contingencies 62,868

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED

FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

BSE Consumer Durables136,442

3QFY11 Net Interest Income BSE Bankex

Provisions & Contingencies 62,868

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED

FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

Expectations for 4QFY11 performance

Sales - change QoQ (%)

EBITDA - change YoY (%)

EBITDA - change QoQ (%)

Net profits - change YoY (%)

Net profits - change QoQ (%)

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED

FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED

FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

+91 22 4031 3443 ashish.nigam@antiquelimited.com

+91 22 4031 3411 kunal.jhaveri@antiquelimited.com

4QFY11 - QoQ volume growth (%)

M&M Escorts Maruti Hero Suzuki Honda

Source: Company, Antique

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED

FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

EUR/GBP movement - sequentially favourable for Tata Motors

USD/GBP movement - sequentially unfavourable for Tata Motors

Average EUR/GBP 0.862

Average USD/GBP 0.633

Average USD/GBP 0.623

Average EUR/GBP 0.887

YEN/INR movement - sequentially unfavourable for Maruti

Average YEN/INR 0.519 Average YEN/INR 0.544 Average YEN/INR 0.550

Average Price $2211/t

2500 2250 2000 1750 1500

01-Oct-10 01-Jan-11 01-Apr-11

CRC steel prices

Average Price EUR 523/t

Average Price INR 194/Kg

Average Price INR 225/Kg

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED

FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

+91 22 4031 3473 nirav.shah@antiquelimited.com

Chg (%) YoY (28) (35) (390) 74 3 QoQ 14 15 43 24 19

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED

FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

+91 22 4031 3442 alok.kapadia@antiquelimited.com

+91 22 4031 3437 sunesh.khanna@antiquelimited.com +91 22 4031 3415 reetu.gandhi@antiquelimited.com

Chg (%) YoY 23 214 15 3 28 56 3 14 68 30 16 41 33 QoQ 6 3 (2) 7 (1) 9 3 19 11 14 19 3 8

Punjab National Bank 32,285

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED

FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

Non banking financial companies

20 18 16 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11

Total Bank Credit (INR bn) - LHS