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SUMMARY
, 2008 .


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109012, , . , 17. . : (495) 229 3810
E-mail: direct@levada.ru
()
119571, , . , 82. .: (495) 564 8582

,
77981 10 2003 .
-, , 2008 ISSN 2070-5107

The Russian Public Opinion Herald


Data. Analysis. Discussions
6(98)
Bi-monthly

Analytic Centre
Yury Levada
(Levada-Centre)
The Interdisciplinary
Academic Centre for
Social Sciences
(InterCentre)

NovemberDecember 2008

CONTENTS
MONITORING OF CHANGES: PRINCIPAL TRENDS
ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATION
Achieved Success and Forthcoming Hardship
(by Natalya BONDARENKO, Marina KRASILNIKOVA)
A Supply-Demand Model of Party-System Institutionalization:
The Russian Case (by Richard ROSE, William MISHLER)
Reading and Society in Russia of the 2000-s (by Boris DUBIN,
Natalia ZORKAYA).
On Middle Class at the end of Belle Epoque (by Alexey LEVINSON)

Members of
the Editorial Council
Tatyana Zaslavskaya
(Chair)
Abel Aganbeghian
Anatoly Vishnevsky
Tatyana Vorozheikina
Leokadia Drobizheva
Natalia Rimashevskaya
Teodor Shanin
Vladimir Yadov
Yevgenii Yassin
Editorial Board
Lev Gudkov
(Editor-in-Chief)
Boris Dubin
(Deputy Editor-in-Chief)
Alexei Grazhdankin
Ludmila Khakhulina
(Deputy Editor-in-Chief)
Marina Krasilnikova
Galina Sterlikova
Natalia Zorkaya
(Executive Secretary)

8
19
30
53

CHRONICLE OF SCIENTIFIC LIFE


Myths of Russian Inferiority. German-Russian Congress
(Reports of L. Gudkov, B. Dubin, A. Levinson, N. Zorkaya)

65

Autors of the issue

88

INFORMATION: SURVEYS FINDINGS

89
90
91

I. Technical Notes
II. Attitudes, Opinions and Evaluations of the Population
SUMMARY
List of Publications. 2008

116
118

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1. .

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4.


, .
.: Rose R., Munro N. Parties and Elections in New European
Democracies. Colchester: ECPR Press, 2009.
2
Schumpeter J. A. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. L.: Allen &
Unwin, 1952.
3
.: Tavits M. On the Linkage between Electoral Volatility and Party
System Instability // European Journal of Political Research. 2008. Vol. 47.
5. P. 537555.
4
.: Colomer J. M. Its Parties That Choose Electoral Systems (or, Duvergers
Laws Upside Down) // Political Studies. 2005. Vol. 53. 1. P.121.
1

,
, .
first past the post, ,
,
.
,
,
5.
, , ,
,
6.
7. ,
, 2007 . 8.
. ,
.
, . ,
( ), , .
,
9. ,
.: Mixed Member Electoral Systems. N.Y.: Oxford University Press,
2001.
6
.: Benoit K. Models of Electoral System Change // Electoral Studies.
2004. Vol. 23. 3. P. 363384.
7
.: Shvetsova O. A Survey of Post-Communist Electoral Institutions,
19901998 // Electoral Studies. 1999. Vol. 18. 3. P. 397401; BielasiakJ.
The Institutionalization of Electoral and Party Systems in Postcommunist
States // Comparative Politics. 2002. Vol. 34. 2. P. 189210.
8
.: Rose R., Munro N. Op. cit. Ch. 2.
9
.: Rose R., Mackie Th. Do Parties Persist or Fail? // When Parties Fail.
Princeton University Press, 1988. P. 533558.
5

6 (98) 2008

19

.
,
,
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.
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10. ,
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11.

- 12. ,
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.
.
,
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,
13. ,
, , .: Lewis-Beck M., Jacoby W., Norpoth H., Weisberg H. The American
Voter Revisited. University of Michigan Press, 2008. Ch. 5.
11
.: Wessels B., Klingemann H.-D. Parties and Voters--Representative
Consolidation in Central and Eastern Europe? // International Journal of
Sociology. 2006. Vol. 36. 2. P.1144.
12
.: McAllister I., White St. Political Parties and Democratic
Consolidation in Post-Communist Societies // Party Politics. 2007. Vol. 13.
2. P.197216.
13
.: Tavits M., Annus T. Learning to Make Votes Count: the Role of
Democratic Experience // Electoral Studies. 2005.
10

20

.
,
.
,

,
14.
,

, 15.
,

.
2.
.
,
.
, 99% . 1989 . ,
16. 17

1990 . ,
1990 . ,
1991 .
,
18. 1991 . .
, 1992 .
,
19.

.
.: Olson D.M. Party Formation and Party System Consolidation in the
New Democracies of Central Europe // Political Studies. 1998. Vol. 46. 3.
P.432464.
15
.: Mainwaring S., Zoco E. Political Sequences and the Stabilization of
Interparty Competition // Party Politics. 2007. Vol. 13. 2. P.155178.
16
.: White St., Rose R., McAllister I. How Russia Votes. Chatham, NJ:
Chatham House, 1997.
17
.: Barany Z. Elections in Hungary// Elections in Socialist States. L.:
Harvester/Wheatsheaf, 1990. P.7197.
18
.: Meleshevich A. A. Party Systems in Post-Soviet Countries Ukraine.
N.Y.: Palgrave Macmillan. 2007.
19
.: Fish M. St. Democracy from Scratch. Princeton University Press,
1995.
14

6 (98) 2008

.
1993 . .
,
20.
, 450 ,
5%- .
.
:

, , , . ,
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21,
22.

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2003 .
.
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1
( 225)

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1995

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1055
719
1572
13
19
% ,
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31,2
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12,6

146
77
30
58

1999

2003

1149
1084
18

681
1214
16

41,7
13,4

26,8
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114
67

68
103

: Rose R., Munro N. Parties and Elections in New European Democracies. 2009. Table 17.3c.
20
.: Moser R. G., Thames Fr. C. Jr. Compromise amidst Political
Conflict // Mixed-Member Electoral Systems. Oxford University Press,
2001. P. 255; McFaul M. Russias Unfinished Revolution. Cornell University
Press, 2001. P. 217.
21
.: Carey J.M., Shugart M. Incentives to Cultivate a Personal Vote //
Electoral Studies. 1995. P. 419.
22
.: Hale H. E. Why Not Parties in Russia? Cambridge University Press,
2007. P. 20.

, ,
(
2007 .). , . .: Rose R.,
Munro N. Parties and Elections in New European Democracies. Colchester:
ECPR Press, 2009. Ch. 16.
23

6 (98) 2008

21

24.
- . 1995 .

, 1999 .

25.

,
26.
11 43.
,

. ( ):

(. . 1). 85 , , 69 ,
.
(
)
,
.
1993 . 5%- ,
81% .
, 1995 .,
. 1999 .

1
,

69
70
60
50
40
30
20

10
0

2
3

: Rose R., Munro N. Parties and Elections in New


European Democracies. 2009. Table 17.3c.

38% . 2003 .
. 2007 .
: , 24%.
, ,
, ,
(. 2).
.
,
2003 ., 29% . 2007 . ,
.
,
, , .
11

2
, 19932007 .

,
, , %
, ,
, %

1993
13
8

1995
43
4

1999
26
6

2003
23
4

2007
11
4

-2
-4

81

53

38

32

24

-57

19

43

18

29

-12

: Rose R., Munro N. Parties and Elections in New European Democracies. 2009. Table 17.3c.
.: Hale H. E., 2007. Op. cit.
.: Rose R., Munro N. Elections without Order. Cambridge University
Press, 2002. P.106.
26
, , .
,
. .: Rose R., Munro N. Parties and Elections in New
European Democracies. Colchester: ECPR Press, 2009. Ch. 16.
24
25

22

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,
28.
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,
.

.: Moraski B. Electoral System Reform in
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.: Gelman V. Party Politics in Russia:
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P. 913930.
27

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). ,
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. , , , , , (. .).
30
.: Colton T. J. Transitional Citizens: Voters and What Influences Them
in the New Russia. Harvard University Press, 2000. P. 8; McFaul M. Russia's
Unfinished Revolution. Cornell University Press, 2001. P. 39.

. .: Bartolini St., MairP. Identity, Competition and Electoral
Availability. Cambridge University Press, 1990.
29

24

31. 49,5%

, 1990- .
2
( %)
%
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20032007

: , :
Rose R., Munro N. Parties and Elections in New European
Democracies. 2009. Table 17.3c. .
.

,
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31
.: Rose R. Mobilizing Demobilized Voters in Post-Communist
Societies// Party Politics. 1995. Vol. 1. 4. P. 549563.

6 (98) 2008

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www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp/; .
33
.: Colton T. J. Op. cit.; Hale H. E., Op. cit. P. 5.
34
.: Miller A. H., Klobucar Th. F. The Development of Party Identification
in Post-Soviet Societies // American Journal of Political Science. 2000.
Vol.44. 4. P. 667685.
32

6 (98) 2008

25

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36
.: Converse Ph. E. Of Time and Partisan Stability // Comparative
political Studies. 1969. Vol.2. 2. P. 139171; Goerres A. Why are Older
People More Likely to Vote? // British Journal of Politics and International
Relations. 2007. Vol.9. 1. P. 90121.
35

26


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37.

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.: Mishler W., Rose R. Generation, Age and Time // American Journal
of Political Science. 2007. Vol.51. 4. P. 822834.

37

6 (98) 2008

, ,
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39
.: Moraski B. Electoral System Reform in Democracy's Grey Zone //
Government and Opposition. 2007. Vol.42. 4. P. 550.
38

6 (98) 2008

27

, ,

.
478
. 2008 .
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.
40.
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. - , ,
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, .
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43.
, ,
. 20072008 . .: Wilson A. Virtual Politics: Faking Democracy in the Post-Soviet
World. Yale University Press, 2005; Gelman V. Party Politics in Russia:
From Competition to Hierarchy // Europe-Asia Studies. 2008. Vol.60. 1.
P.918.
41
.: OSCE (Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe), 2004.
Russian Federation Presidential Election 14 March 2004. Warsaw: ODIHR
Mission Report.; PACE/BOA, 2008. Observation of the Parliamentary
Elections in the Russian Federation. Strasbourg: Parliamentary Assembly
of the Council of Europe Document 11473.; PACE/BOA, 2008a. Observation
of the Presidential Election in the Russian Federation. Strasbourg:
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe Document 536.
42
.: Rose R., Mishler W. How Do Electors Respond to an Unfair Election?
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SPP 446, 2008.
43
.: McCauley M. Russia Since 1914. L.: Longman, 1998. P. 150.
40

28

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freedomhouse.org). ,
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45. ,

46.

.: Bogaards M. Dominant Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in


Africa // Party Politics. 2008. Vol.14. 1. P.125.
45
.: Electoral Authoritarianism: the Dynamics of Unfree Competition
Boulder: Lynne Rienner. 2006.
46
.: Wigell M. Mapping Hybrid Regimes: Regime Types and Concepts
in Comparative Politics // Democratization. 2008. Vol.15. 2. P.244.
44

6 (98) 2008

.
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47.


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ODonnell G. Delegative Democracy // Journal of Democracy. 1994.
Vol.5. 1. P.59.

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, 1965 ., 20- ,
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.: Girardet R. Mythes et mythologies politiques. P.: Seuil, 1990; Duhamel A. La politique imaginaire: les
mythes politiques francais. P.: Flammarion, 1995; Flood C. Political myth:
a theoretical introduction. N.Y.: Routledge, 2002; Bottici C. A philosophy of
political myth. N.Y.: Cambridge UP, 2007; .
// . . .: , 1996. .325341.
.: . ,
, : // : . . . 2000. 6. . 2535.
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115

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14

SUMMARY

Achieved Success and Forthcoming Hardship (by


Natalya Bondarenko, Marina Krasilnikova).
The dynamics and structure of material wellbeing in todays Russian society may be analyzed
in the most adequate way proceeding from the
hypothesis of the poverty of society on the whole (not
only material poverty but that of population needs
and demands) and the hypothesis of downward
strategy of development.
These hypotheses are confirmed by the outcome
of the surveys of consumption behavior that have
been carried out by Levada Center during 10 recent
years. The consumption patterns of the majority
of population havent changed in essence. The
consumption demands of even the highest-income
groups are confined to the pattern of poor
consumption including only the range of necessary
needs. In practice it leads to superfluous expenses
for satisfying basic needs and eventually to wasteful,
conspicuous behavior for the sake of demonstrating
the status. To put it simply, a considerable part of
income increase during recent years has been eaten
up in direct and indirect sense.
Thus, despite the growth of real incomes
of Russian families the process of improving
the consumption patterns is slowing down, the
former being necessary for meeting contemporary
demands to human capital development. New
consumption patterns aimed at a persons
development not only havent become a norm for
the majority of population but are not even the
fashion patterns for the most well-to-do people.
Such poor structure of consumption behavior
of population (as a bearer of human capital) is a
significant limitation for innovational type of Russia
development. The established by the present time
basic consumption pattern may play a dumping
role under the conditions of enlarging financial and
economic crisis (which implies decreasing personal
earnings, reducing employment rate, decreasing the
consumption possibilities of considerable groups
of population). At the same time the process of
living standards deterioration may bring about the

116

necessity of working out a new structure of consensus


between society and authority without which it
will be difficult to survive the period of crisis. The
worsening of life conditions for the majority of
population will contribute to reinforcement of
pragmatic component in public opinion shaping.
The former may make people to correlate the
outcome of economic and social policy of the state
with their expectations and hopes.
A Supply-Demand Model of Party-System
Institutionalization: The Russian Case (by Richard
Rose and William Mishler). An accountable
democracy requires institutionalized parties.
A supply-demand model hypothesizes that
institutionalization is a function of four sets of
influences: stability in election law; persisting
commitments to parties by political elites and by
voters; and learning by elites and by voters. The
hypotheses are tested with aggregate data from nine
nationwide elections in Russia since 1993, in which
institutionalization and its complement, volatility,
are decomposed. Survey data from the 2007-8 round
of Russian elections is then used to test the extent
of institutionalization through party identification.
Analysis shows that the high level of support for
President Putins new party, United Russia, is based
on temporary rather than durable influences. The
political elites volatile supply of parties has created
a floating party system and a delegative democracy
with implications for new democracies on other
continents.
Reading and Society in Russia of the 2000-s
(by Boris Dubin and Natalia Zorkaya). The
article analyzes the findings of the survey carried
out by Levada Center in September 2008 on
the order of Federal Agency on Press and Mass
Communications; these data are supplemented by
the findings of the previous surveys of the Center and
publishing statistics materials. The authors point out
the following leading trends in nowadays reading of
the Russians: fragmentation of reading audience, its

6 (98) 2008

division into smaller and smaller segments; the shift


of all groups of readers interests to entertaining
genre fiction, to non-fiction books of general, nonspecialized character (useful advice, health, house,
orchid and vegetable garden), to thin magazines for
women and magazines with television program, all
this actually abolishing the role of reading leaders;
more and more female character of mass reading
demands; forming up the urban youth demand for
fashionable books and glamour magazines; the
overwhelming role of gender and age characteristics
in contemporary reading culture; limiting literary
socialization by the narrow scope of ones own
(primarily, family: from mother to children), the role
of school, library, literary criticism, and mass media
being unimportant; loss of significance of public
library as a source of printed editions (it is used
mainly by students and retired persons) and readers
focusing on buying books or handing them over
from acquaintances to acquaintances; decreasing
interest to books in some groups of the Russians,
particularly of middle- and old-aged ones; and at
the same time satisfaction with their own reading
among all readers groups each of which has found
something specific. On the whole these trends
go on in accordance with the general adaptation
process of massification of tastes and demands of
population without modernizing cultural institutions
of the society.
Alexey Levinson. On Middle Class at the end of
Belle Epoque. Middle class is a name that becomes
widely used in Russia although many experts and
many respondents remark that the respective
social groups lack many important features of
the middleclass in the US and Europe. Moreover
these groups that initially consisted mainly of
entrepreneurs and professionals plus employees in
private companies now are in company of a growing
number of middle-ranking and high state officials.
Because of this Russian middle class is politically
sterile and demonstrates no wishes nor hopes to have

its own representatives in parliament. In everyday


life this class very slowly shifts to use modern
institutions in finance, insurance, health care etc.
Many of its members still prefer the informal ways,
social network and familial recourses.
The Section Scientific Life is comprised of
the texts of reports made by the research workers
of Yuri Levada Analytical Center at the GermanRussian Symposium Old-New Russian Myths: the
Crisis of Knowledge or of Consciousness? which
was organized on December 3, 2008 in Moscow by
Friedrich Naumann Foundation with participation
of Association of Historians AIRO-XXI and AllRussian Library of Foreign Literature. The discussion
at the Symposium between the German researchers
of Russian culture and Russian men of letters,
philosophers, public figures was to show to what
extent old Russian ideologemes determine the style
of thinking of contemporary Russian intellectuals,
to what extent these ideas are rationalized, whether
the society today has a potential for critical
reflection over them. Levada Center was offered to
present an objective picture of prevalence of key
mythologemes in mass consciousness. To fulfill this
task the researchers of Levada Center had carried
out in September 2008 a representative survey of
Russian population (1600 respondents) the findings
and interpretation of which are outlined in this
Section. In accordance with Symposium program
four mythologemes were chosen for discussion:
specific irrationality of culture and the way of
life in Russia, inaccessibility of understanding its
peculiarities from outside (one cant grasp Russia
mentally, L.Gudkov); isolationism as a principle
of national identity constitution (Russias specific
way, A.Levinson), utopia and the miracle of other
life in the Russians understanding (the image
and functions of the West in public opinion,
N.Zorkaya) and Stalin in contemporary Russia
(attitude to Stalin, mass stereotypes and evaluations
of his role, B.Dubin).

6 (98) 2008

117

, 2008 .
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118

6 (98) 2008

LIST OF PUBLICATIONS. 2008


Author, Title
Bodrova V. Population's Attitude to Health and Public Health Care
Bondarenko N., Krasilnikova M. Achieved Success and Forthcoming Hardship
Bondarenko N. Default of August 1998 Viewed by Population
Borusyak L. Football as a catalyst of Patriotism
Borusyak L. The Project Name Russia as a New Textbook on History
Dafflon D. Youth in Russia: The Portrait of a Generation in Transition
Dubin B. The Boundaries and Problems of Sociology of Culture in Modern Russia: Toward
the Possibility of Description
Dubin B. Virtual War and its Real Consequences.
Duyk Ye. A Note from the Field
Gabovich M. To the Discussion on Theoritical Legacy of Yuri Levada
Gimpelson V., Kapelushnikov R. Application of Labor Legislation: the Role of Judicial System
Gudkov L. The Society with Limited Imputability
Dubin B., Zorkaya N. Reading and Society in Russia of 2000-s
Gudkov L., Dubin B., Zorkaya N. Middle Class As If: Opinions and Moods of High-income Youth
in Russia
Gudkov L., Dubin B., Zorkaya N., Levinson A. Reports on German-Russian Congress Old
and New Mythes
Kon I. A Male Role and Gender Order
Kosova L. The Idols of the Square Place
Krasilnikova M. Aged People:New Possibilities or One More Limitation?
Krutyi I., Zanguieyva I. Trans-National Interaction and the Quality of Human Capital
Levinson A. On Middle Class at the End of Belle Epoque
Ledeneva A., Shushanian N., Telephone justice in Russia
Magun V., Rudnev M. Basic Human Values: Similarities and Dissimilarities between Russians
and other Europeans
Merzlyakova V. Alternative Patterns of Succes in Contemporary Culture: downshifting
Mitsek S.Russia's Becoming World Economic Power: Acievements and Problems
Monusova G. Who and Where Works with Pleasure
Nikolyuk S. Trial by Gazprom
Oleinik A. Triangulation in content analysis: a case of in-depth interviews with members
of the Russian elite
Perova I. Unemployment in Population's Evaluations: Apprehension and Expectations
Rose R, Mischler W. A Supply-Demand Model of Party-System Institutionalization:
The Russian Case
Rose R. Is Russia Becoming a Normal Society?
Shalin D. Phenomenoligical Foundations of Theoritical Practice: Biocritical Notes on Yu.A. Levada
Shustenkova Ye. Multiple Wavelet Analysis in Sociology
Stelmakh V. The Russian Libraries Today: Is the State Returning?
Stuchevskaya O. Harassement and Russian Women
Volkov D. 2007 in the Russians' Public Opinion: Threat to Stability
Volkov D., Grazhdankin A. What do Similarity and Difference between Levada Center Pre-Election
Forecast and Official Results of Central Election Commision mean?
Volkov D., Dolutskaya S. Jubilee Conference of Levada Center
Vorozheikina T. Value Attitudes or limits of a Method?
Volkov D. III All-Russia Sociological Congress
White S., McAllister I. Belarus, Ukraine and Russia: East or West?
Zorkaya N. Contemporary Youth: on an Issue of Imperfect Socialization

6 (98) 2008

P.

1(93)
6(98)
4(96)
3(95)
5(97)
5(97)

8691
818
2332
5161
5866
1935

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119


2009 ( 2 )
: . .
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