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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

Question-01: Frame the investment process for a person of your age group. Answer: As investors, we would all like to beat the market handily, and we would all like to pick "great" investments on instinct. However, while intuition is undoubtedly a part of the process of investing, it is just part of the process. As investors, it is not surprising that we focus so much of our energy and efforts on investment philosophies and strategies, and so little on the investment process. It is far more interesting to read about how Peter Lynch picks stocks and what makes Warren Buffett a valuable investor, than it is to talk about the steps involved in creating a portfolio or in executing trades. Though it does not get sufficient attention, understanding the investment process is critical for every investor for several reasons: 1. The investment process outlines the steps in creating a portfolio, and emphasizes the sequence of actions involved from understanding the investors risk preferences to asset allocation and selection to performance evaluation. By emphasizing the sequence, it provides for an orderly way in which an investor can create his or her own portfolio or a portfolio for someone else. 2. The investment process provides a structure that allows investors to see the source of different investment strategies and philosophies. By so doing, it allows investors to take the hundreds of strategies that they see described in the common press and in investment newsletters and to trace them to their common roots. 3. The investment process emphasizes the different components that are needed for an investment strategy to by successful, and by so doing explain why so many strategies that look good on paper never work for those who use them. The best way of describing this book is by noting what it does not do. It does not emphasize individual investors or push an investment philosophy. It does not focus heavily on coming up with strategies that beat the market, though there is reference to some of them in the course of the book. Instead, it talks about the process of investing and how this process is the same no matter what investment philosophy one might have. The book is built around the investment process. The process always starts with the investor and understanding his or her needs and preferences. For a portfolio manager, the investor is a client, and the first and often most significant part of the investment process is understanding the clients needs, the clients tax status and most importantly, his or her risk preferences. For an individual investor constructing his or her own portfolio, this may seem simpler, but understanding ones own needs and preferences is just as important a first step as it is for the portfolio manager.

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

The next part of the process is the actual construction of the portfolio, which we divide into three sub-parts. The first of these is the decision on how to allocate the portfolio across different asset classes defined broadly as equities, fixed income securities and real assets (such as real estate, commodities and other assets). This asset allocation decision can also be framed in terms of investments in domestic assets versus foreign assets, and the factors driving this decision. The second component is the asset selection decision, where individual assets are picked within each asset class to make up the portfolio. In practical terms, this is the step where the stocks that make up the equity component, the bonds that make up the fixed income component and the real assets that make up the real asset component are picked. The final component is execution, where the portfolio is actually put together, where investors have to trade off transactions cost against transactions speed. While the importance of execution will vary across investment strategies, there are many investors who have failed at this stage in the process. The final part of the process, and often the most painful one for professional money managers, is the performance evaluation. Investing is after all focused on one objective and one objective alone, which is to make the most money you can, given the risk constraints you operate under. Investors are not forgiving of failure and unwilling to accept even the best of excuses, and loyalty to money managers is not a commonly found trait. By the same token, performance evaluation is just as important to the individual investor who constructs his or her own portfolio, since the feedback from it should largely determine how that investor approaches investing in the future. These parts of the process are summarized in Figure 1, and we will return to this figure to emphasize the steps in the process as we move through the book. The book is built around the same structure. It begins with a chapter that provides an overview of investment management as a business. The first major section is on understanding client needs and preferences, where we look at not only how to think about risk in investing but also at how to measure an investors willingness to take risk. The second section looks at the asset allocation decision, while the third section examines different approaches to selecting assets. The fourth section takes a brief look at the execution decision, and the fifth section develops different approaches to evaluating performance.

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

Question 2: From the website of BSE India, explain how the BSE Sensex is calculated. Answer: Introduction SENSEX, first compiled in 1986, was calculated on a "Market CapitalizationWeighted" methodology of 30 component stocks representing large, well-established and financially sound companies across key sectors. The base year of SENSEX was taken as 1978-79. SENSEX today is widely reported in both domestic and international markets through print as well as electronic media. It is scientifically designed and is based on globally accepted construction and review methodology. Since September 1, 2003, SENSEX is being calculated on a free-float market capitalization methodology.

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

The "free-float market capitalization-weighted" methodology is a widely followed index construction methodology on which majority of global equity indices are based; all major index providers like MSCI, FTSE, STOXX, S&P and Dow Jones use the freefloat methodology. The growth of the equity market in India has been phenomenal in the present decade. Right from early nineties, the stock market witnessed heightened activity in terms of various bull and bear runs. In the late nineties, the Indian market witnessed a huge frenzy in the 'TMT' sectors. More recently, real estate caught the fancy of the investors. SENSEX has captured all these happenings in the most judicious manner. One can identify the booms and busts of the Indian equity market through SENSEX. As the oldest index in the country, it provides the time series data over a fairly long period of time (from 1979 onwards). Small wonder, the SENSEX has become one of the most prominent brands in the country. Index Specification: Base Year Date of Launch Method calculation 1978-79 01-01-1986 of Launched on full market capitalization method and effective September 01, 2003, calculation method shifted to free-float market capitalization.

Base Index Value 100

Number of scrips 30 Index Click here for list of constituents Constituents Index calculation Real Time frequency Index calculation Click here for Index calculation and maintenance and Maintenance Index Reach Click here for scrip-wise, sector wise market capitalization, weightage etc. Market Click here for market capitalization and turnover coverage Capitalization and Turnover Coverage Historical Values Index, Price Earnings, Price to Book Value ratio and Dividend Yield % of Index Historical Notices Click to search Historical Notices on Index Replacements Historical Replacements Click here for historical replacements

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

SENSEX Calculation Methodology SENSEX is calculated using the "Free-float Market Capitalization" methodology, wherein, the level of index at any point of time reflects the free-float market value of 30 component stocks relative to a base period. The market capitalization of a company is determined by multiplying the price of its stock by the number of shares issued by the company. This market capitalization is further multiplied by the free-float factor to determine the free-float market capitalization. The base period of SENSEX is 1978-79 and the base value is 100 index points. This is often indicated by the notation 1978-79=100. The calculation of SENSEX involves dividing the free-float market capitalization of 30 companies in the Index by a number called the Index Divisor. The Divisor is the only link to the original base period value of the SENSEX. It keeps the Index comparable over time and is the adjustment point for all Index adjustments arising out of corporate actions, replacement of scrips etc. During market hours, prices of the index scrips, at which latest trades are executed, are used by the trading system to calculate SENSEX on a continuous basis. Dollex-30 BSE also calculates a dollar-linked version of SENSEX and historical values of Dollex series of BSE indices') this index are available since its inception. SENSEX - Scrip Selection Criteria Equities of companies listed on Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd. (excluding companies classified in Z group, listed mutual funds, scrips suspended on the last day of the month prior to review date, scrips objected by the Surveillance department of the Exchange and those that are traded under permitted category) shall be considered eligible Listing History: The scrip should have a listing history of at least three months at BSE. An exception may be granted to one month, if the average free-float market capitalization of a newly listed company ranks in the top 10 of all companies listed at BSE. In the event that a company is listed on account of a merger / demerger / amalgamation, a minimum listing history is not required. The scrip should have been traded on each and every trading day in the last three months at BSE. Exceptions can be made for extreme reasons like scrip suspension etc. Companies that have reported revenue in the latest four quarters from its core activity are considered eligible.

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

From the list of constituents selected through Steps 1-4, the top 75 companies based on free-float market capitalisation (avg. 3 months) are selected as well as any additional companies that are in the top 75 based on full market capitalization (avg. 3 months). The filtered list of constituents selected through Step 5 (which can be greater than 75 companies) is then ranked on absolute turnover (avg. 3 months). Any company in the filtered, sorted list created in Step 6 that has Cumulative Turnover of >98%, are excluded, so long as the remaining list has more than 30 scrips. The filtered list calculated in Step 7 is then sorted by free float market capitalization. Any company having a weight within this filtered constituent list of <0.50% shall be excluded All remaining companies will be sorted on sector and sub-sorted in the descending order of rank on free-float market capitalization. Industry/Sector Representation: Scrip selection will generally attempt to maintain index sectoral weights that are broadly in-line with the overall market. Track Record: In the opinion of the BSE Index Committee, all companies included within the SENSEX should have an acceptable track record. Understanding Free-float Methodology Concept Free-float methodology refers to an index construction methodology that takes into consideration only the free-float market capitalization of a company for the purpose of index calculation and assigning weight to stocks in the index. Free-float market capitalization takes into consideration only those shares issued by the company that are readily available for trading in the market. It generally excludes promoters' holding, government holding, strategic holding and other locked-in shares that will not come to the market for trading in the normal course. In other words, the market capitalization of each company in a free-float index is reduced to the extent of its readily available shares in the market. Subsequently all BSE indices with the exception of BSE-PSU index have adopted the free-float methodology. Major advantages of Free-float Methodology

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

A Free-float index reflects the market trends more rationally as it takes into consideration only those shares that are available for trading in the market. Free-float Methodology makes the index more broad-based by reducing the concentration of top few companies in Index. A Free-float index aids both active and passive investing styles. It aids active managers by enabling them to benchmark their fund returns vis- -vis an investible index. This enables an apple-to-apple comparison thereby facilitating better evaluation of performance of active managers. Being a perfectly replicable portfolio of stocks, a Free-float adjusted index is best suited for the passive managers as it enables them to track the index with the least tracking error. Free-float Methodology improves index flexibility in terms of including any stock from the universe of listed stocks. This improves market coverage and sector coverage of the index. For example, under a Full-market capitalization methodology, companies with large market capitalization and low free-float cannot generally be included in the Index because they tend to distort the index by having an undue influence on the index movement. However, under the Free-float Methodology, since only the free-float market capitalization of each company is considered for index calculation, it becomes possible to include such closely-held companies in the index while at the same time preventing their undue influence on the index movement. Globally, the Free-float Methodology of index construction is considered to be an industry best practice and all major index providers like MSCI, FTSE, S&P and STOXX have adopted the same. MSCI, a leading global index provider, shifted all its indices to the Free-float Methodology in 2002. The MSCI India Standard Index, which is followed by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) to track Indian equities, is also based on the Free-float Methodology. NASDAQ-100, the underlying index to the famous Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) - QQQ is based on the Free-float Methodology. Definition of Free-float Shareholding of investors that would not, in the normal course come into the open market for trading are treated as 'Controlling/ Strategic Holdings' and hence not included in free-float. Specifically, the following categories of holding are generally excluded from the definition of Free-float: Shares held by founders/directors/ acquirers which has control element

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

Shares held by persons/ bodies with "Controlling Interest" Shares held by Government as promoter/acquirer Holdings through the FDI Route Strategic stakes by private corporate bodies/ individuals Equity held by associate/group companies (cross-holdings) Equity held by Employee Welfare Trusts Locked-in shares and shares which would not be sold in the open market in normal course. The remaining shareholders fall under the Free-float category. Determining Free-float Factors of Companies BSE has designed a Free-float format, which is filled and submitted by all index companies on a quarterly basis. (Format available on BSE determines the Free-float factor for each company based on the detailed information submitted by the companies in the prescribed format. Free-float factor is a multiple with which the total market capitalization of a company is adjusted to arrive at the Free-float market capitalization. Once the Free-float of a company is determined, it is rounded-off to the higher multiple of 5 and each company is categorized into one of the 20 bands given below. A Free-float factor of say 0.55 means that only 55% of the market capitalization of the company will be considered for index calculation. Free-float Bands: % Free-Float >0 - 5% >5 - 10% >10 - 15% >15 - 20% >20 - 25% >25 - 30% >30 - 35% Free-Float Factor 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 % Free-Float >50 - 55% >55 - 60% >60 - 65% >65 - 70% >70 - 75% >75 - 80% >80 - 85% Free-Float Factor 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

>35 - 40% >40 - 45% >45 - 50%

0.40 0.45 0.50

>85 - 90% >90 - 95% >95 - 100%

0.90 0.95 1.00

Index Closure Algorithm The closing SENSEX on any trading day is computed taking the weighted average of all the trades on SENSEX constituents in the last 30 minutes of trading session. If a SENSEX constituent has not traded in the last 30 minutes, the last traded price is taken for computation of the Index closure. If a SENSEX constituent has not traded at all in a day, then its last day's closing price is taken for computation of Index closure. The use of Index Closure Algorithm prevents any intentional manipulation of the closing index value. Maintenance of SENSEX One of the important aspects of maintaining continuity with the past is to update the base year average. The base year value adjustment ensures that replacement of stocks in Index, additional issue of capital and other corporate announcements like 'rights issue' etc. do not destroy the historical value of the index. The beauty of maintenance lies in the fact that adjustments for corporate actions in the Index should not per se affect the index values. The BSE Index Cell does the day-to-day maintenance of the index within the broad index policy framework set by the BSE Index Committee. The BSE Index Cell ensures that SENSEX and all the other BSE indices maintain their benchmark properties by striking a delicate balance between frequent replacements in index and maintaining its historical continuity. The BSE Index Committee comprises of capital market expert, fund managers, market participants and members of the BSE Governing Board. On-Line Computation of the Index During trading hours, value of the Index is calculated and disseminated on real time basis. This is done automatically on the basis of prices at which trades in Index constituents are executed. Adjustment for Bonus, Rights and Newly Issued Capital SENSEX calculation needs to be adjusted for issue of Bonus or Rights shares If no adjustments were made, a discontinuity would arise between the current value of the index and its previous value despite the non-occurrence of any economic activity of

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

substance. At the BSE Index Cell , the base value is adjusted, which is used to alter market capitalization of the component stocks to arrive at the SENSEX value. The BSE Index Cell keeps a close watch on the events that might affect the index on a regular basis and carries out daily maintenance of all BSE Indices. Adjustments for Rights Issues When a company, included in the compilation of the index, issues right shares, the free-float market capitalization of that company is increased by the number of additional shares issued based on the theoretical (ex-right) price. An offsetting or proportionate adjustment is then made to the Base Market capitalization (see 'Base Market capitalization Adjustment' below). Adjustments for Bonus Issue When a company, included in the compilation of the index, issues bonus shares, the market capitalization of that company does not undergo any change. Therefore, there is no change in the Base Market capitalization, only the 'number of shares' in the formula is updated. Other Issues Base Market capitalization adjustment is required when new shares are issued by way of conversion of debentures, mergers, spin-offs etc. or when equity is reduced by way of buy-back of shares, corporate restructuring etc. Base Market capitalization Adjustment The formula for adjusting the Base Market capitalization is as follows: New Base Market capitalization = Old Base Market capitalization x New Market capitalization / Old Market capitalization To illustrate, suppose a company issues right shares which increases the market capitalization of the shares of that company by say, Rs.100 crores. The existing Base Market capitalization (Old Base Market capitalization), say, is Rs.2450 crores and the aggregate market capitalization of all the shares included in the index before the right issue is made is, say Rs.4781 crore. The "New Base Market capitalization " will then be: 2450 x (4781+100) ------------------------------- = Rs.2501.24 crores 4781 This figure of Rs. 2501.24 crore will be used as the Base Market capitalization for

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

calculating the index number from then onwards till the next base change becomes necessary. Index Review Frequency The BSE Index Committee meets every quarter to discuss index related issues. In case of a revision in the Index constituents, the announcement of the incoming and outgoing scrips is made six weeks in advance of the actual implementation of the revision of the Index. Question 3: Perform an economy analysis on Indian economy in the current situation. Answer: Economy Analysis In addition to the economy analysis, fundamental analysis helps investors determine whether the economic climate offers a positive and encouraging investing environment. Economic analysis is done for two reasons: first, a companys growth prospects are, ultimately, dependent on the economy in which it operates; second, share price performance is generally tied to economic fundamentals, as most companies generally perform well when the economy is doing the same. Factors to be considered in economy analysis The economic variables that are considered in economic analysis are: gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, exchange rates, the balance of payments (BOP), the current account deficit, government policy (fiscal and monetary policy), domestic legislation (laws and regulations), unemployment (the percent of the population that wants to work and is currently not working), public attitude (consumer confidence)

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

inflation (a general increase in the price of goods and services), interest rates, productivity (output per worker), capacity utilization (output by the firm) etc . GDP is the total income earned by a country. GDP growth rate shows how fast the economy is growing. Investors know that strong economic growth is good for companies and recessions or full-blown depressions cause share prices to decline, all other things being equal. Inflation is important for investors, as excessive inflation undermines consumer spending power (prices increase) and so can cause economic stagnation. However, deflation (negative inflation) can also hurt the economy, as it encourages consumers to postpone spending (as they wait for cheaper prices). The exchange rate affects the broad economy and companies in a number of ways. First, changes in the exchange rate affect the exports and imports. If exchange rate strengthens, exports are hit; if the exchange rate weakens, imports are affected. The BOP affects the exchange rate through supply and demand for the foreign currency. BOP reflects a countrys international monetary transactions for a specific time period. It consists of the current account and the capital account. The current account is an account of the trade in goods and services. The capital account is an account of the cross-border transactions in financial assets. A current account deficit occurs when a country imports more goods and services than it exports. A capital account deficit occurs when the investments made in the country by foreigners is less than the investment in foreign countries made by local players. The currency of a country appreciates when there is more foreign currency coming into the country than leaving it. Therefore, a surplus in the current or capital account causes the currency to strengthen; a deficit causes the currency to weaken. The levels of interest rates (the cost of borrowing money) in the economy and the money supply (amount of money circulating in the economy) also have a bearing on the performance of businesses. All other things being equal, an increase in money supply causes the interest rates to fall; a decrease causes the interest rates to rise. If interest rates are low, the cost of borrowing by businesses is not expensive, and companies can easily borrow to expand and develop their activities. On the other hand, when the cost of borrowing becomes too high (when the interest rates go up), borrowing may become too costly and plans for expansion are postponed. Interest rates also have a significant effect on the share markets. In very broad terms,

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

share prices improve when interest rates fall and decline when interest rates increase. There are two reasons for that: the intrinsic value estimate will increase as interest rates (and the linked discount rate) fall and underlying company profitability will improve, if interest payments reduce. Inflation in India In financial year 2007-08, average inflation in India was around 4.66 percent. This rate was lower than average inflation of financial year 2006-07. In 2007-08, fiscal high prices of food items were primary cause behind high rates of inflation. That high rate of inflation had to be controlled by banning a number of necessary commodities as well as various financial steps. High prices of oil were responsible for proportionately high rate of inflation in 2008-09.

Question 4: Identify some technical indicators and explain how they can be used to decide purchase of a companys stock. Answer: Technical Indicators A technical indicator is a series of data points that are derived by applying a formula to the price and/or volume data of a security. Price data can be any combination of the open, high, low or closing price over a period of time. Some indicators may use only the closing prices, while others incorporate volume and open interest into their formulae. The price data is entered into the formula and a data point is produced. For example, say the closing prices of a stock for 3 days are Rs. 41, Rs. 43 and Rs. 43. If a technical indicator is constructed using the average of the closing prices, then the average of the 3 closing prices is one data point ((41+43+43)/3=42.33). However, one data point does not offer much information. A series of data points over a period of time is required to enable analysis. Thus we can have a 3 period moving average as a technical indicator, where we drop the earliest closing price and use the next closing price for calculations. By creating a time series of data points, a comparison can then be made between present and past levels. Technical indicators are usually shown in a graphical form above or below a securitys price chart for facilitating analysis. Once shown in graphical form, an indicator can then be compared with the corresponding price chart of the security. Sometimes indicators are plotted on top of the price plot for a more direct comparison.

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

Technical indicators measure money flow, trends, volatility and momentum etc. They are used for two main purposes: to confirm price movement and the quality of chart patterns, and to form buy and sell signals. A technical indicator offers a different perspective from which to analyze the price action. Some, such as moving averages, are derived from simple formulae and they are relatively easy to understand. Others, like stochastics have complex formulae and require more effort to fully understand and appreciate. Technical indicators can provide unique perspective on the strength and direction of the underlying price action. Indicators filter price action with formulae. Therefore they are derivative measures and not direct reflections of the price action. This should be taken into account when analyzing the indicators. Any analysis of an indicator should be taken with the price action in mind. There are two main types of indicators: leading and lagging. A leading indicator precedes price movements; therefore they are used for prediction. A lagging indicator follows price movement and therefore is a confirmation. The main benefit of leading indicators is that they provide early signaling for entry and exit. Early signals can forewarn against a potential strength or weakness. Leading indicators can be used in trending markets. In a market that is trending up, the leading indicator helps identify oversold conditions for buying opportunities. In a market that is trending down, leading indicators can help identify overbought situations for selling opportunities. Some of the more popular leading indicators include Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator. Lagging indicators follow the price action and are commonly referred to as trendfollowing indicators. Lagging indicators work best when the markets or securities develop strong trends. They are designed to get traders in and keep them in as long as the trend is intact. As such, these indicators are not effective in trading or sideways markets. Some popular trend-following indicators include moving averages and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Technical indicators are constructed in two ways: those that fall in a bounded range and those that do not. The technical indicators that are bound within a range are called oscillators. Oscillators are used as an overbought / oversold indicator. A market is said to be overbought when prices have been trending higher in a relatively steep fashion for some time, to the extent that the number of market participants long of the market significantly outweighs those on the sidelines or holding short positions. This means that there are fewer participants to jump onto the back of the trend. The oversold condition is just the opposite. The market has been trending lower for some time and is running out of fuel for further price declines. Oscillator indicators move within a range, say between zero and 100, and signal periods where the security is overbought (near 100) or oversold (near zero). Oscillators

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

are the most common type of technical indicators. The technical indicators that are not bound within a range also form buy and sell signals and display strength or weakness in the market, but they can vary in the way they do this. The two main ways that technical indicators are used to form buy and sell signals is through crossovers and divergence. Crossovers occur when either the price moves through the moving average, or when two different moving averages cross over each other. Divergence happens when the direction of the price trend and the direction of the indicator trend are moving in the opposite direction. This indicates that the direction of the price trend is weakening. Technical indicators provide an extremely useful source of additional information. These indicators help identify momentum, trends, volatility and various other aspects in a security to aid in the technical analysis of trends. While some traders just use a single indicator for buy and sell signals, it is best to use them along with price movement, chart patterns and other indicators. A number of technical indicators are in use. Some of the technical indicators are discussed below for the purpose of illustration of the concept: Moving average The moving average is a lagging indicator which is easy to construct and is one of the most widely used. A moving average, as the name suggests, represents an average of a certain series of data that moves through time. The most common way to calculate the moving average is to work from the last 10 days of closing prices. Each day, the most recent close (day 11) is added to the total and the oldest close (day 1) is subtracted. The new total is then divided by the total number of days (10) and the resultant average computed. The purpose of the moving average is to track the progress of a price trend. The moving average is a smoothing device. By averaging the data, a smoother line is produced, making it much easier to view the underlying trend. A moving average filters out random noise and offers a smoother perspective of the price action. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): MACD is a momentum indicator and it is made up of two exponential moving averages. The MACD plots the difference between a 26-day exponential moving average and a 12-day exponential moving average. A 9-day moving average is generally used as a trigger line. When the MACD crosses this trigger and goes down it is a bearish signal and when it crosses it to go above it, its a bullish signal. This indicator measures short-term momentum as compared to longer term momentum and signals the current direction of momentum. Traders use the MACD for indicating trend reversals.

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index (RSI) is another of the well-known momentum indicators. Momentum measures the rate of change of prices by continually taking price differences for a fixed time interval. RSI helps to signal overbought and oversold conditions in a security. RSI is plotted in a range of 0-100. A reading above 70 suggests that a security is overbought, while a reading below 30 suggests that it is oversold. This indicator helps traders to identify whether a securitys price has been unreasonably pushed to its current levels and whether a reversal may be on the way. Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic oscillator is one of the most recognized momentum indicators. This indicator provides information about the location of a current closing price in relation to the periods high and low prices. The closer the closing price is to the periods high, the higher is the buying pressure, and the closer the closing price is to the periods low, the more is the selling pressure. The idea behind this indicator is that in an uptrend, the price should be closing near the highs of the trading range, signaling upward momentum in the security. In downtrends, the price should be closing near the lows of the trading range, signaling downward momentum. The stochastic oscillator is plotted within a range of zero and 100 and signals overbought conditions above 80 and oversold conditions below 20.

Question 5: Compare Arbitrage pricing theory with the Capital asset pricing model. Answer: In economics and finance, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a price difference between two or more markets: striking a combination of matching deals that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, it is the possibility of a risk-free profit at zero cost. In principle and in academic use, an arbitrage is risk-free; in common use, as in statistical arbitrage, it may refer to expected profit, though losses may occur, and in practice, there are always risks in arbitrage, some minor (such as fluctuation of prices decreasing profit margins), some major (such as devaluation of a currency or derivative). In academic use, an arbitrage involves taking advantage of differences in price of a single asset or identical cash-flows; in common use, it is also used to refer to

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

differences between similar assets (relative value or convergence trades), as in merger arbitrage. People who engage in arbitrage are called arbitrageurs (IPA: /rbtrr/)such as a bank or brokerage firm. The term is mainly applied to trading in financial instruments, such as bonds, stocks, derivatives, commodities and currencies. Conditions for arbitrage Arbitrage is possible when one of three conditions is met: 1. The same asset does not trade at the same price on all markets ("the law of one price"). 2. Two assets with identical cash flows do not trade at the same price. 3. An asset with a known price in the future does not today trade at its future price discounted at the risk-free interest rate (or, the asset does not have negligible costs of storage; as such, for example, this condition holds for grain but not for securities). Arbitrage is not simply the act of buying a product in one market and selling it in another for a higher price at some later time. The transactions must occur simultaneously to avoid exposure to market risk, or the risk that prices may change on one market before both transactions are complete. In practical terms, this is generally only possible with securities and financial products which can be traded electronically, and even then, when each leg of the trade is executed the prices in the market may have moved. Missing one of the legs of the trade (and subsequently having to trade it soon after at a worse price) is called 'execution risk' or more specifically 'leg risk'.[note 1] In the simplest example, any good sold in one market should sell for the same price in another. Traders may, for example, find that the price of wheat is lower in agricultural regions than in cities, purchase the good, and transport it to another region to sell at a higher price. This type of price arbitrage is the most common, but this simple example ignores the cost of transport, storage, risk, and other factors. "True" arbitrage requires that there be no market risk involved. Where securities are traded on more than one exchange, arbitrage occurs by simultaneously buying in one and selling on the other. See rational pricing, particularly arbitrage mechanics, for further discussion. Mathematically it is defined as follows: and where Vt means a portfolio at time t. Examples

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

Suppose that the exchange rates (after taking out the fees for making the exchange) in London are 5 = $10 = 1000 and the exchange rates in Tokyo are 1000 = $12 = 6. Converting 1000 to $12 in Tokyo and converting that $12 into 1200 in London, for a profit of 200, would be arbitrage. In reality, this "triangle arbitrage" is so simple that it almost never occurs. But more complicated foreign exchange arbitrages, such as the spot-forward arbitrage (see interest rate parity) are much more common. One example of arbitrage involves the New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. When the price of a stock on the NYSE and its corresponding futures contract on the CME are out of sync, one can buy the less expensive one and sell it to the more expensive market. Because the differences between the prices are likely to be small (and not to last very long), this can only be done profitably with computers examining a large number of prices and automatically exercising a trade when the prices are far enough out of balance. The activity of other arbitrageurs can make this risky. Those with the fastest computers and the most expertise take advantage of series of small differences that would not be profitable if taken individually. Economists use the term "global labor arbitrage" to refer to the tendency of manufacturing jobs to flow towards whichever country has the lowest wages per unit output at present and has reached the minimum requisite level of political and economic development to support industrialization. At present, many such jobs appear to be flowing towards China, though some which require command of English are going to India and the Philippines. In popular terms, this is referred to as offshoring. (Note that "offshoring" is not synonymous with "outsourcing", which means "to subcontract from an outside supplier or source", such as when a business outsources its bookkeeping to an accounting firm. Unlike offshoring, outsourcing always involves subcontracting jobs to a different company, and that company can be in the same country as the outsourcing company.) Sports arbitrage numerous internet bookmakers offer odds on the outcome of the same event. Any given bookmaker will weight their odds so that no one customer can cover all outcomes at a profit against their books. However, in order to remain competitive their margins are usually quite low. Different bookmakers may offer different odds on the same outcome of a given event; by taking the best odds offered by each bookmaker, a customer can under some circumstances cover all possible outcomes of the event and lock a small risk-free profit, known as a Dutch book. This profit would typically be between 1% and 5% but can be much higher. One problem with sports arbitrage is that bookmakers sometimes make mistakes

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

and this can lead to an invocation of the 'palpable error' rule, which most bookmakers invoke when they have made a mistake by offering or posting incorrect odds. As bookmakers become more proficient, the odds of making an 'arb' usually last for less than an hour and typically only a few minutes. Furthermore, huge bets on one side of the market also alert the bookies to correct the market. Exchange-traded fund arbitrage Exchange Traded Funds allow authorized participants to exchange back and forth between shares in underlying securities held by the fund and shares in the fund itself, rather than allowing the buying and selling of shares in the ETF directly with the fund sponsor. ETFs trade in the open market, with prices set by market demand. An ETF may trade at a premium or discount to the value of the underlying assets. When a significant enough premium appears, an arbitrageur will buy the underlying securities, convert them to shares in the ETF, and sell them in the open market. When a discount appears, an arbitrageur will do the reverse. In this way, the arbitrageur makes a low-risk profit, while fulfilling a useful function in the ETF marketplace by keeping ETF prices in line with their underlying value. Some types of hedge funds make use of a modified form of arbitrage to profit. Rather than exploiting price differences between identical assets, they will purchase and sell securities, assets and derivatives with similar characteristics, and hedge any significant differences between the two assets. Any difference between the hedged positions represents any remaining risk (such as basis risk) plus profit; the belief is that there remains some difference which, even after hedging most risk, represents pure profit. For example, a fund may see that there is a substantial difference between U.S. dollar debt and local currency debt of a foreign country, and enter into a series of matching trades (including currency swaps) to arbitrage the difference, while simultaneously entering into credit default swaps to protect against country risk and other types of specific risk. Comparison between APT & CAPM APT applies to well diversified portfolios and not necessarily to individual stocks. With APT it is possible for some individual stocks to be mispriced - not lie on the SML. APT is more general in that it gets to an expected return and beta relationship without the assumption of the market portfolio. APT can be extended to multifactor models. Both the CAPM and APT are risk-based models. There are alternatives.

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

Empirical methods are based less on theory and more on looking for some regularities in the historical record. Be aware that correlation does not imply causality. Related to empirical methods is the practice of classifying portfolios by style e.g. o Value portfolio o Growth portfolio The APT assumes that stock returns are generated according to factor models such as:


As securities are added to the portfolio, the unsystematic risks of the individual securities offset each other. A fully diversified portfolio has no unsystematic risk. The CAPM can be viewed as a special case of the APT. Empirical models try to capture the relations between returns and stock attributes that can be measured directly from the data without appeal to theory. Difference in Methodology CAPM is an equilibrium model and derived from individual portfolio optimization. APT is a statistical model which tries to capture sources of systematic risk. Relation between sources determined by no Arbitrage condition. Difference in Application APT difficult to identify appropriate factors. CAPM difficult to find good proxy for market returns. APT shows sensitivity to different sources. Important for hedging in portfolio formation. CAPM is simpler to communicate, since everybody agrees upon.

Question 6: Discuss the different forms of market efficiency. Answer: A financial market displays informational efficiency when market prices reflect all available information about value. This definition of efficient market required answers to two questions : what is all available information? & what does it mean to reflect all available information ?. different answers to these questions give rise to different versions of market efficiency.

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management =========================================================== Semester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 =======================================================

What information are we talking about? Information can be information about past prices, information that is public information and information that is private information. Information about past prices refers to the weak form version of market efficiency, information that consists of past prices and all public information refers to the semi-strong version of market efficiency and all information (past prices, all public information and all private information) refers to the strong form version of market efficiency. Prices reflect all available information means that all financial transactions which are carried out at market prices, using the available information, are zero NPV activities. The weak form the EMH states that all past prices, volumes and other market statistics (generally referred to as technical analysis) cannot provide any information that would prove useful in predicting future stock price movements. The current prices fully reflect all security-market information, including the historical sequence of prices, rates of return, trading volume data, and other market-generated information. This implies that past rates of return and other market data should have no relationship with future rates of return. It would mean that if the weak form of EMH is correct, then technical analysis is fruitless in generating excess returns. the semi-strong form suggests that stock prices fully reflect all publicly available information and all expectations about the future. OLD information then is already discounted and cannot be used to predict stock price fluctuations. In sum, the semistrong form suggests that fundamental analysis is also fruitless; knowing what a company generated in terms of earnings and revenues in the past will not help you determine what the stock price will do in the future. This implies that decisions made on new information after it is public should not lead to above-average risk-adjusted profits from those transactions. Lastly, the strong form the EMH suggests that stock prices reflect all information, whether it be public (say in SEBI filings) or private (in the minds of the CERO and other insiders). So even with material non-public information, EMH asserts that stock prices cannot be predicted with any accuracy.

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