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Forecasting Method Nave Simple Average Simple Weighted Average Simple Moving Average Weighted Moving Average 3 months

Weighted Moving Average 5 months Regression Analysis Time-series Decomposition

MAD 195097978 155076450 135366528 118857400 137948700 136671528 123413665 31763639

MFE(Bias) 12743038 128685599 84247141.3 32344006 19944560 25299384.1 4328225.15 12342150

MAPE 3422772 2720639.5 2374851.36 2122453.6 2704876.5 2789214.85 2203815.44 2268831

CV 0.094054 0.0747604 0.0652585 0.0571437 0.0657598 0.0651509 0.059334 0.01548

Forecast($) 2419929784(Nov-09) 2067747184(Nov-09) 2142796616(Nov-09) 2386738344(Nov-09) 2425080555(Nov-09) 2386716466(Nov-09) 2300795419(Nov-09) 2308695360(Dec-09) 2288028915(Q15) 2297399595(Q16) 2247665455(Q17)

Table: A compilation of forecasting metrics and sales forecasts from 61.xls The table shows the results from the different quantitative forecasting methods applied on the applied data to get the forecasts shown. Forecasting metrics were calculated on the forecasts obtained from these methods. None of the forecasting methods are extraordinarily faulty in predicting sales demand since all of them have a coefficient of variation (CV) of less than 10%, the arbitrary level set below which a good forecast lies. Using the CV metric, we notice that the best method by quite a margin. The Regression Analysis, Simple Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average and simple Weighted Average forecasting methods are close in terms of the CV metric. All the methods produce conservative forecasts as they all have a positive bias, i.e. DiFi>0, where Di is the actual sales demand and Fi is the forecasted demand. Further comments and additional information about the assumptions used to make the forecasts are provided in the enclosed Excel file.