Life-Cycle Management & Forecasting

Andreas Seiger
Director Diabetes Marketing & Market Access Novo Nordisk Canada Inc.

March 30th, 2011

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Pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical companies are under severe pressure to improve product pipelines, accelerate time to market, and improve margins on existing products - while also maintaining strict adherence to quality principles and regulatory requirements. However, drug development is a long process with significant risks, and pharmaceutical companies are faced with intense competitive pressures and patent expirations that threaten profitability.

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A lengthy uncertain process

5,000 10,000

200 - 300

5 - 10

1-3

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Post-approval life-cycle management (schematic)
Competitor EL new device S-A new disposable device S-A new durable device

Launch

NovoMix® 30

Market shaping Victoza®

Victoza®

Optimize

Improve Market Access Insulin

2008

2009

2010

Retire

Mix 10/20

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Forecasting = reducing uncertainty
‡ Forecasting periods
‡ 10 ± 5 ± 2 - 1 year rolling forecast ‡ 12 ± 6 ± 3 ± 1 month rolling forecast

‡ Forecasting tools
‡ Environment assessment (Health Care system, Demographics, Competition etc«) ‡ 2-3 different statistical techniques (sensitivity analyses) ‡ Benchmarking with comparable products ‡ Expert advise

‡ Risk assessment

Slide no 7

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