3

,

5 The' world this week, Leaders 7 The end 01" the :Sp,ac'f!' A,ge la st fLi 9' h t of tin e s h uttL.e ,8 Li'bya Ke,e P CaJ lm, keep Igo~I~g' ,8 Grreec:eand the eure Th e a bus, es of' austerity
1,'0

,Asia

31 Japan's 'prime minist:tlr ,32: Hi'g'Ih"s'"ps'ed r,ai~,In (hiina

Ahead of the €xecuttdo,n!€t

Iracki ng- slower
[)n,~ y'ear Of!

32 AustralLia,'s Leader' ,34, ,Afgha,nist'an

China albroad
We,leo m,~.
11,..,,"

Roug-h rffidling 34, Taj;'k;s,ta m

b1~ n·t;il'~'11f1 '· IIJ II;... '!f'6 ~~u-

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'War of the beards

wi llkommen
1,2 Tli1a,;'Land~:s @LElrno'l11

35 KhmerRougetriak J ustice of a ki nd
36, B,any,an
fU -t' Ib.r xorea ~'iC'me f d ~'iiJorlJ-1I K-: mend
e

leader, p,a'ge 7 .,Tlhe impactin ,A m enca, pag:e 23,~'The fin a l • launch of the sthuttle marks the end of'the heroic age of' space travel, p,age 6,6

On the cover 'he end efthe Space Age:

Hands off the, resu It
Letters
1,3; On th,!, IN,at;,o'n,a llH ea.lltlh

Gre ece Anew au steri ty p Lan wfU fai l: leader, p ag'e,8 .. Greece's agony" page 41..A preposa ~to. roll over some Gn:~~I~ debts , ~ p,ag-862
1

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IMliddle Ea.st and Africa

Sa''''; ee, Libe ra,ls" I:ta ly Briefing 1,,8 S:yri'a, Ih e s q ill eeze 0 In Assad United States 21 R,e'lPubtican candidates M']ichiell~le'lin th e h ea rtla nd 22 S,ay mani,age (UOimIO~S pride 23 After the' sp,ace shuttle Houston' s next Ufe
23 Trad e pacts

37 Libya

In the bunker

3,8 y'emlemts, turml,oil
Southern muscle 39 The IUni"ted ,Arab [E'mir,at,e's Giett]' n 9 tWlitchy

The Ec'onomis't on Line
IDlai Ly CIna ~ysis and opl 111;0 n fro m ou r 19 b to 95'1 plus audi 0 a,n d vi dec
ECC:HIl s,t~coml/blogs o;mi

4,0 Z',imbab'we's, dia,'ml,onds
Forever di rty
4,0 South Afric,i

content, debates and a da]'~ychart

E-mid I: news letters a nd
mobile editio n
EC(HiiI,(J,mi's,t.

Ihe rise of Jurius M,alem.a

Arab 'revolts The' world should
irlten:s~fy pressure on M ua m rima r
9uas,1=-S:lege of'Iripoli, page 37 .. In Syria the reqime of Basher Assa d is totte ri n g' f pa 9 es 18.- ,20

coml!ern,aill

Print, ed.itiion:' avail[abl[e on li ne b~ 7pm London time each Thursday Ec.tUiil ~)'mi'stt,com'lprint '
avai Lab ~e 0 rTI Un e to down load ea ch fri day
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Europe 41 Greece:' s a,g,on'y

Oaddaft and prepare rorthe' future: I~ea.d.er~, paqeS. 'he ... f_ -

What have we, becorn e?

0 edition,:

fa udioedition

frog ress of a sort 24, Health and lo'n'gevity long live the fat American 24, mlli fUJi' s politi cs
The IRod unspared
26 Chri,sti,a n f'e'stiv'alls

if 2 R,ussi; nl po_i'lies, A rich man s 9'aJ mie 43 Fr,e'nch poLiti,c':s

Don/t count Sarka out

Economist

The

A, b reader church 2,8 Lexi'liligtolill

B,a,r'gain~ing and blackmail
IFirrD ,llIbl'ish@d. illli Septembe.r 1143, to' :take part.' iN rr(l severe c'Oniest be~1tJ int-e:ltig€Jl,c€t which P~~$ forword .. and

43 Turk,e'y aft,e'f'the ,e'~,ecti'on Business as. usual 44, G,ermla'n unrivers,ities ,Med]iolcre, but at least t he,l;l re free 45 Cha,rlem,agne' Ihe ~'even-yiea rl~y budqet

d1lur pr(f)gress. ~,
t

an £!IJ1w'Qrth~ :t!m~'diBrr,,,r~n.~eQbstructing

The Amenca,s 29 Cri'm,e'l politics and A turning tide

battle

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Sa n F~,a'l'il SiCOr Sa 0 P,alllll.or Si'rllgiel p-O reI TOlkYOr ci Was,Hu Ul gtoniD(

M,e'x,ico

3'0 Canada"s unions,

Mail ag91re!SS~on 3'0 r:e'~e,co,ms, Btdize i'n B,a:ckto the dramng board

The latest IRepublican con ten der disp mys her conservative credentia lSI paqe 21
Bachmann

Michele

·4 I Contents
,

The E,c,onoml;s:t July 2nd 2011

Britain

63 Am'8,ri'ca,DI m,o'rtg'ag',e's
Bank of A,lmeri,ca,~s

46 Pa,yin'9 'f'o'r u'ni versity Ii' n ke r~In'91Vllith th e ivo ri e'$ 47' Def:s,n(,!' reform Dr Fox's In fJW model. M,oID 48, IN,orthern Ir,sland's,
ec,onomy Getf In g' b ac k to busi ness

settlern e nt
63 'OiLma'rlkets Act~n g' with reserves 64 Reg'u Lati n 9 Ii'n,aiii ce Patchwork planet

4'9 B a,g,e,1l1 t o fhe warninq ofthe 1980s, E IJ ro pe w'e lcemes Ch in a's
cas h A,merica need s to worry

65 IEcono,mics,focus, Ove rh e'at~ 9' 'e m erqi n g' n
markets Nextw'eek 'W'epublish our s,ped,al,f@porl on the ",s"ws bu,sins',ss. Tlhe

aboutthe contrast between its attitude 'to China and Europe' S': lea de r, pa g~' lJQ. C h Un ~,5€! ca pita L and companies are sidling 'into
Europe" pa'ges 5,2-54

Enterna,ti'Qwa I, 501 Co'nrtli'd: mediation
Privatlsin g' peace ,51, Vi'ale.nt extremists

'S ci E! n ce a 1i1d reiCh n 0 logy 66 'Th,!, splace shuttle

Into th e sunset
68, 'The'mi'Lilary

int:ernet has turned it up,side
'li' olio

Of ski nh eads and jl hadists

Spooks in orbit

uses of splace

Briefing 52 Chi'nes,e' inv,e',s,tm,e'n'i i"n Strea k s of red
BlIsi'ness

Books and arts 6'9 NI,@'w fiction Ca ll of th 'e Am .a,LO n 70 Robert: Hughes's Ro,me rNJl o~i ,y and ete rn a L s
1

down", mla,-~'nglcmore lei, '''t It· . II Ipa rtjcrpa IO;ry" SOClI,at" d • ..rverse -ftjt b a,n d pa,_- slan ........ 1. use d t'0 .e as lt Ibefore the arriva l o,f the rna 55 1me d• sa:ys "S-' ..tan, d_a'ge ,la,. _om
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Europe

Pri'la pa L C'l1'mimerda~offices:
:2:5 St .Ia rn~s' s Stn~et'lLon don SW1I.A IH16

'F~U;020 ].83 0 '7'~0~
B,oUl.~e-v~ des fr a nc~ees 16 ira 1206 Gen eva i SW'itz~rLan dJ

70 Da,n'gers ,of ttl It fnte.'rne.t
1

The 'ft tter bubble 71 "'"Road to INowhlHi'e,:I' A Pira n de llia n th r~ller Bus;ne,s.s books quart:er[y

analysis ofwhich emerqinq mar kets a. re ave rh eati n 9" paqe 65

Who'sove'rheating?

Our

liEP(O' 50 pc S t-q lill a. ke troubles ,56 G,oo'g:le and ,antitrust A wea.lk (3-s,e 57 Technoblgy'IPO's Bettinq the farml on Zynga 5,7' ,Su'perm arlke'ts 'f n Ilr'lI,zi'L Ihe fight for Pao de' A\u,car 58, Corporale India
Profits stu m bl~e, .58, Etect,ric cars lhe futu re ]i s ']i 1[1 Ch ·iIna 5'9 Schu'm,pete'r' Io 0 ImlU,clh info rmaf 0 n

55 Powe'r in Japan

Te~:lii 2:,2, '5,66

24'}"0

7'5-0 srd Ave n ue, 5 th ~loijtJ"1 f:'rJ ew Yo~kl- MY 1100]7

Te[: 1212:~41 osoo
60/IF{;~ntralIP l;3 za

72 'Cla,ssi,c' 'texts
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M,,a,,xl m urn rB 0. b
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The world this week
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The outgoing government of Alan Garcia in Peru.rescinded a silver-mining concession granted to a Canadian, com-

nn ~1'~ '.. , for P ort1I!.1I " 'iI-'h U~' , 'Ii:'!l'· n '= ,~ '" .d. 'I!t.oQ.w. on President Bashar Assad to. end h~ government's cracks 'own, '"yna s army an,d:secun-" So +, "' -_ _ _._ , d t.y forces withdrew from Hama, the country's fourth= biggest' cit~ where at least 73, people were reported to have be-len killed in clashes inlune.
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Kai-shek and his, son and who ~swidel y credi t-e d wl th ad-

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ges of embezzlement, Mr Lee, ~h-: .. .~. d " Wllt .. pro-m dep enc ence views,
,,.!,' 'L' 1 voice In ..... I

vancing democracy in the country was. indlcted on charremains a powerful political
;.".'.; -1arwan,

pany" The decision followed violent protests mn the, region of Puno to demand the, cancellation of all mining and hydro-

Greece was. again hit b,y strikes, protests and rioting, as the parliament voted! n favour of a. crucial new round of austerit Y' measures and economic reforms, 'The Europ"ean Un.s on ,~",- -:I·:h,Q1M, are now Ii-' an d Il._1I,;;; W expecte d. to release the latest tranche .of bail-out funds that Greece nee ds 'in order t,o. avoid defaulting on its d.. payebt merits. Meanwhile, the French banking industryfloated a proposal for an orderly restructuring of Greek debt that would involve private investors rol ling' over their holdinss in bonds
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electnc con tracts in th.e country" which ie,ft five people d.. ead, The 'Court:of Appeal in Belize' ruled, that the country's .20,,09 nationalisation of Belize Teleme d 11 ~ w- c unco mstituti -0· ,nal
__ ..........!

:Ni:(I'eria;,s government imposed, a. curfew on Abuja, thi€ capital after a. seriesof attacks by Boko Haram, an Islamist sect- ·n 1'-· 20,,25 peopie ,'1-se ..!O-::-I 'JI'une zsth
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A, trx-backed court i,nCambo-

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were killed when a. beer= garden was bomhed in the city

of Maiduguri in the state of
B omo: another ten people

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' d' - I in tne 'dIe.· in anot h,e-rattack ID'n, th __ cmty o n the same d,ay: Under an agreement brokered by the African Union Ethiioi!!! pia pledged to. send 4,20"0

not return the company to its ~. ~ pnorpnvate owners umess they' secure a separate judicial

dia conducted preliminary hearmgs in ,~~ 0'0':2;\ against Case the leaders of the Khm,er' Rouge for crimes committed i:n 197.5-79,. The CatS'€; brings to trial the four highest-ranking membets of the regime 'w'h,o are stUlli alive, all of them old" Nuon Chea, regarded as Pol Pot's right-hand man, walked out of the proceedings; another defendant claimed hie had been granted amnesty

enforcement order,
Looking forjusttce

troop s to leeep the peace in the violently disputed oil-rich nrovin of Ab Y'ei h cb JIt"'" ... I: liL
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copters were called on to help repel an, attack by suicideKabul; where many Western,ers stay~,At least 22 people were killed, half of them ctvilians. the Haqq ani network, an insurgent group with ties to th e Taliban, is susp ecte d.
Prid:e bombers and gunmen on the Inter- Con tinenta] Hotel in

In, ,Afghanistan

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The International 'Criminal

In'B,ritain public-sector work-

offiicers 'w'ent: on strike ,agains.t the gov'e-rnme'nfs p,rop,osed ,chang-e:s to mh,emr pensions~
WenJia'bao; the ~hi:n,es,e prim,e 'm'inist,e;r" travelm!ed moO Hun,gary;, 'Brita ~ .tlnd G ern

ers ranging from teachers to court officials to immigration

of crim es against humanity Meanwhile, rebel fortes 'con= tinu'f,d to ,advan,ce .on the ca.p~,=, talj,Tripo~i France confirm,ed t- h -',- d-I .. ' .._w -. , th ,3[_:rn.:·~,t ",ad'i all=_I'O,PP'f - d·· e:ap= _' ,o:ns-:main],y U.ghm arms and a:mmunffitffi,oln-io th,e r-eb"eills",
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arrest wa-rrants for :Libya"'s leader, Colonel Muammar Qaddafi, his son, Saif al-Islam, an d his tn ~'4'~1'1' gen chi f'1 Abdul a. al-Senussi, on charges
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Court at The Hague issued

Sudan and South Sudan .. ,

straddles the border between

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the uxsatd that a drought in the Horn of Afri.ca was rhe .' or,€ : worst In m .. t han 6 years ··.,0 and was. affectingaom people,
,Myamnar~s stat,e ne,wspap'E'rs ran commle:ntary warning AU.n,g San Suu Kyi th.e' m,e'a!de'I" ,of the- 0 ppositffi,on ,democracy' m.ove:m,ent; th,at he-r 'continu'ed
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A g' rt! l'r1I b H,t: un II ~e'a nt la,n til sa

m,any;, sil,g,nin,gbiUio,ns of euros'" worth ,of'tr,ad,e an,d investm,ent ,d,e:ais an,d pilomising,that China WQ'ul,d lliendl.a Hhelli'ping h.and~'to tro'ub~ed !euro-zon,e p,erip,h,eral countrie $,.,

MarUne Aubry~le'ad,e-r of the 'French, So,cia'Hsts" saJd sh,e wou~,dsman.d, for th,e patrty~s n,omin,a.mi,on, to ru'n ,agains.t Nic,o~,as Sarkozy jin next y,eat~s pre sid.e ntfu,allieJe,(:ti on ..T'hiE' ' SOilciaH,sts will c:hoose th,eir ~ ,. d jl~ '. ,can.. +d ate In, a, p,rw:mary vote In t .el. O c-o h
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an,d that b,er plan to tour m'h,e !country ,could provoke ch,a,os" The last tmme s,he toutl€,d t'he ,countrysid,e her'moto('cad,e was. attaiclltled b,y ,a'mob,t. at p p at'-' !enm'~yaJign"ed,'wiilith,e government Mm,ss. Suu Kym was blame-,d for that runcm,dent :H'u]ia" a. pr,ommni€'nt C,hini€s"e " +dl ,d1SS1,.. ent" w,as gr,8rnt,€!;, d',a lJ.l1l'Vl. s,ian a ill form of :relea'se after th:re e=,and,=,a=ha.lf y,ears in prison~ Mr Hu,was ,co:n:victed. .of trying' to SUbiVlf,rt state P'Ow= ie:r~aft,er talking u,p t:he !c.allses of AID s I)a tien,ts ,atn,d th e e-,rJl[vrron= m'ent" He wa's met ,out of p:rison only d,ays,afm,er Aru,'Weiwei",a, fam ous a.rtist iJ.'nd a"cti vist; W,(llS allow'ed :home on, b,an~

poH.-UcaJ ,acUvity is u'ru,aw'ful

N'ew Yc)rllic"s ~:gisla h ture piasse-d

Ven,ezuella suspen,ded a. d,eve:~.'-' tee to invesmmgate the viollie-nce~ op,m,ent summit s,ched,uill!e,d for At llie'ast15o, S--yria'n oplpositfon July 5th lb.ecau-se' H'u,g:o 'Chave'z" figUI,e s met 'in p'ubl~,ilc:ior th,e the presffi,dent~ is still m 'Cubl'; re:lcO"vl~:tin.gfrom surgery for a first tilime in the: c.apital" Dapie:llivic ,abs,cess., Mr Chav'e:z h,as m,as'ellS; to d!e:,c~,arle:t.heir sup'~'

Tt:. e patie nt

Egypt~'s ,py.os,ec,utor~g!e:n!e.ra] saru,d he: wou~.d, oIm a oommit~

injulled ~n c ash,es, in, ,Cair-o's 'Tahrir S,qUa.r.if b"etw'e If:n p,oli c:e and, 'people 'proliestm,g a:gai'nst th,e slow pa'ce' of refolm.~

M,ore th,an,l"o,o"o 'people

'Wl~:rle

a. b:iHle-,gali smng same~-s-ex marria,ge that was q,ulcl~ly' sign,e,d ~,n~o 'by Andrew' law C om' , '-0'! ~:hQ:g" ov'-:-.o'rn"· Ol~ Thl~ ~Ict ,' ~ . ,doubles the number of g.ay '. ~f' -,0 Am e,ncan w h ,c.ain m,a.-rry M'l mh,ey n,ow' wish" It is the blgg,e;st adv,001ce '£or gay r1i.ghts in A'mIe r'-' ilea sjne:e Mlassac'h'us etts m,eg.a~= ;, d-_ ~ , ],$'e:• gay n u pha. '}S In, 20'03~ .
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Le,e 'Je:ng=:h'u'i~ who blec:ame presid,e:nt of Twwan ,afi:'er ,at ~on:g pj,e:rilod of ltd,e' by 'Chiang

Th,e first ruU,ng by a fe!der-aJ ap!p"eals-,oO'urton O'bama,care ,decm,ded that the 'mandate m'h,Btt A_me'fi,cans m,ust' :h,ave :he,81~th msuran c:e:s constitutional.. i Th,e 'matter is iexp"ec.ted, to e'nd up in the, Sup,rem,e C,ourt. ..~

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The world this week

The Economist July znd 2011

'. BUSlneS,S
sel ecte d Christine Lagarde as its new managing director, Ms Lagarde was the front-runner for the j ob from the moment Dominique Strauss-Kahn resigns d in. Maty~ Her appointment came after Amen ce, China, B'f3ZU and others lined up to back her bid, though some emerging-market countries continued to question the convention that only a European should head the. fund, As French finance minister Ms Lagarde played a.
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rv cUI b~n IT'S" Th 'F' d era 1R' some s1 1 de b car d:E··' ac (,on .. ,rut .rees, one of the most controversial parts of the Dodd- Frank reforms, They will be allowed to charge d b- t h e 12.cents 'pIer ..lou I_Ie . transaction permitted under
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television. News, Corp owns seve rat!British newspap erst. tne snus Most OLfth Bntish.'press ton ' the right as wen as the: meft) argue that it should not also 'be allowed mo own a big broadcaster ..In Ie sp onse to thos e worries, News Corp has offe-red tr, spin off Sky N ews. The: government will make its fina] ". .,-, 'y h d.eC1Slon .on Jul'- 8m'- ,',

biggest provider .of satellite-

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News Corporation final y managed to sell off'its,troubled Myspac.e social-networking site: in at deal that val ue s the business at $3.5:m~ News Corp paid SsS,om for it in, 2005:~.At 't- 'h·,e··I'L m_ ·e RUP'i 'e'-'r 'M···I-urd 0"1 ch - +i' ': I •. 'N·lo.---e 'C--"orp';s o -...I~'W6 1- .. 1. , _. : :' 1U11~,6,., h~~1I.odl_ ~.' _ ,ae' ' .' 1t.tJu..w~'.· iit ~ a '~'~gr,eat~ opportunity'; and 'f d· '.' '·b· d M" '-, " .... '....as one 0,": ,eSicrl_' e·. ····YSP,tlCe 'th· ~",,:-::~'b'Ij!'If!, h-I' ,0:·:t-~!c:,et·-fl,OO'1 ,·p4i1+"t-~!O's··. " W~"-.
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Giooglets market dominance in internet searche 50 came under renewed scrutiny lust days after it confirmed that t America's Federal Trade Commission had begun a formal investigation. into Us business practices, Google was taken to court biY1Plus~ at French comp etitor which says it has be en forced so choose Goog e's search methods in order to secure advertising se rvices,
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take control of ShuiJililg 'Fang, - -'11 ~l -- '••'..- .(-, h- t a. we, ,-znown-- l.. 'Utjl,U tor wrnteD sp irit") ilia el. Diageo owns b Gordon's 'Gin and 'Captain Morgan rum; among or 'h er .. brands, Its majority stake in a distinguished Chinese alcohol -1-· I - .. ' . .. -,. I pro.d ucer '., rs seen.--' 'bIY some as an _ ..- .'. '. '. .. indicati on that China is more open to foreign takeovers than had been tho 10· u.=g, .. ,gCP- .ecI'!al 'Y--'after Coca-Cola's attempted acquisition of ajuice company 'was blocked :in 20'09~
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combin,ed 6,o'm barrels of on from res'erv,e;s, moO, offs,em'the: disruptmon. to supply' in 'Litrytl.'O Am,erica, is to p.rovi,de half of this", The effect on on, :prices 'was fl'e'etin:g: they fell sharp my, afte.r the. ] EA'~S intervention" but ,reb',oun,ded withiln a ~ew' days~,o.p'Ee advised.th,e ag-e:n= ey n.o'~:o ~"d:isturbm:h,e 'mark,ef' ~ t

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America's Supreme; Court struckI( down ,~~I,~I-W"~ C-.-~I11! ... in lfor.-:J!!L " .. ._, W,o. nia that had banne d the sal e of violent V Ide ,0,games to children, th,e decision represents a big victory for the video-gaming industry and is viewed, as more proof that this may be the most business-friendly Supreme Court in ,decade:s~ WritIng feu'"t~h.emaj.o rity;] usti,c,e An~on~n SeaJ i,a. m,amntaru'ned that th,er,e 'w,as ~~nora,dition~'in t America of ~'rl€stri!ctjn:g' chil'-' dren's. a ccess to. ,de'pi ctm,onsof vmolenc,e",,,,, 'Grimm~s Fairy 'Ta1es~for exarnplle, ,are grim ~
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ties sold by C,ou'ntr)rwid,e: "w .a ... t d .~. ~. an.-, F Inan'Cl_~..'~ d'lIS'. resse:,.~ b'l- 'k that Bof A bought ID.n .2 0'08, c:onta.in,e,d llioans that ~e:n, hort s of llnd,er-wri~jng g~utd!e~ on in,es thmngs lilt,e b 0 rrowe-rs.' in,co:me dl~ an d ere.· ·'" slcores~ B·Of-.A W]i'"1'1 'bo,ok ,charges tot,aIling moO'n! th,a.n $2'0 bU1io,n, ID'nthe s,econd. qu:arter 'because of the -s>etd'e~= ffiient a.n,d other toxic=mort= gag:- 'e- 'r-e' ~at i'm- 1:-" S ~lIl,~ll,-l-e~'d:' cl-a- '1 -:-, -'
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Inner space Is useful, Outer space Is history

space tourism is a luxury service that is, in any case, unlikely - -.,_.-d ow _.1 - _J .', .....,., J' - - .. - zettir g e .·vn, as .encyclopedia will give you t o go be yon . 1- " Earth 0 rbit at best <the co·st 0,1f' g . En.:_ 'e"- ', , an answer: its equatorialdiamefar as the moon would reduce the number of potential clients ter :15:12,7s6i<:m" or, for those who to a handful), The other sour'ce of revenue is. ferrying astroprefer to th ~ that way; 7,,9'26 nauts tC) the beni ghted International Space Station ([S s), surely nk est (li_c .. ".1,1 ,ul ~J"~ at" 'LJ'.I.:- O bill'111~n counting _~, that -r'1,o' _ _ IUll'li;;_ b ffi'~g' _c ..... waste ~ of monev ~ I and 1.11 miles, Ah, but then there 'is the atmosphere, ShOiU d that count! has. ever been built in the name of science. Perhaps the planet's true diameThe reason for that second objective is al5 0 the reason for tel is actually nearer 13",oool{m, Including all its air, But even thinking 2'0,11 ight, in the history books of the future, be seen m that mayno longer be an adequate measure, For the Earth now as the year when the space cadets dream finally died, It marks reaches farther still, The vacuum surrounding it buzzes with the end of America's space-shuttle programme, whose last: ·-'1 :-,nisnlanne 0 ,~aunc onuLly. __.see pages. - '. o), ,_.e artificial satellites, forming a $,01"" of technosphere beyond the mmSSEO__IS p_anne. d tc launch__or J'~' Bth (.,: . '~"::-', 6,,6:"'6',0'. 'T'h·· atmosphere, Most ,of, hese satellites circle only ,8 few hundred shuttle was supposed to be a reusable truck that. would make kil om.etres ab ove th .'e.. p' 'II an '.-""·11,,,_ solid surface M' ': anI 11: ·t·-'hIIOIU' gh et's !i" Jl~ "_ll,.i_"'~,, the business of putting people into orbit quotidian, Instead it form a ring like Saturn's at ,8 distance of J6"o '0'0 km the place at has been nothing but troub e. Twice, it has l{~,e,dits. crew IIit which an objecttakes 24 hours to orbit the Earth and thushovhad been seen as the experimental vehicle it actually is, that ers continuously over the same point of the planet, would not have been a particular cause for concern; test pilots Viewed this way, the Earth is quite a lot larger than the tradiare killed all the time, But th'e' pretence was maintained hat tional textbook answer, And viewed this w,ay~the Space Age the shuttle was ,8, workaday craft, The technical 'term used. 'by' N AS,A~ "Space Transportation System '!', says ~t ll. a has been a roaring success, Telecommunications, weather {OIecasting, agriculture, forestry and even the search for minerBut: the shuttle 'isnow over, The ISS is due to be: de-orbited. als have a illill been revolutionised, So bes warfare, No power can in the inelegantjargon of tbe field, in 2020~Once that happens, the game will b'!eup, There' is no, appetite 1:0 return to the moon, any longer mobilise 'its armed forces in secret The exact location of every building on the planet can, be known. And satel .. met a one push on to, Mars, El Dorado ,of space exploration, 'The ' I~ te-based global-positioning systems will guide a smart bomb technology could hiethere butthe passion has gone+at leastin to that location on demand, the traditional spacefaring p,owers, America and Russia .. , 'Yet none of this was the Space Age as envisaged by the enThe space cadets o.. er hope, China might pick: up the bah thusiastic "space cadets" 'who, got the whole thing going, to,n ..Certainly it claims it 'wishes, like President John Kennedy Though, engineers like Wernher von Braun who built the rock ... SO years ago, to send people to the surface ,of the moon and return them safely tOI Earth. 'But the date for doing so seems elasets for both Germany's second-world-war vz project and America's cold-war Apollo project, sold their souls to the mil- tic. There is none of Kennedy's "by the end of the decade" braitary establishment in order 'tOI pursue their dreams. of space vura about the announcements from Beijing, Moreover, even travel 'b,y the only means then available, mos of them had if China succeeds in matching America's distant triumph, it ,t'i* ~11' 1.1,['-:' . ~,~d,o;n,~, 'J;n,c~:. a re ,_:, , e their eyes on a higher' prize .."First Men to a Geostationary 0,1"'" ~d.JL= Il"a' - e s the q'U est ~ " -,·w''hat· n ext?;" Thl - 'e Cha . -e s :~'.. that th"~ , Nl~'v"O'ln- "~Som'" ., 19' '7"2" W··"&1111 ~a'y ""]"o:b iiVI bit" do"es ,n()t have quite th,e same r~ng as '~"lFirst en tOi the 'C-·'h·II~n,e' s:. ,e' g·:·o··v:",e· 'rD" rule'n'l it .ii'1re"Riiich"Ji,r·d· -.. M ..... . .' ...., IlL,. a Mo,o,n"\ at b!,ook vo,n ,Braun wro,te in 19S.8", Th·e visio'n, 'b'ein,g s.o"I,d ,do'n:e~nand, :pull the plug on th,e 'w'h,o:Ie sh,eban.g~ in the '19'5 os and lSHSOS, w:he'n, the early sJ)aee ro"ckets w'ere fly"~' ,No 'b'u,cks, no, Bu,el, Ro'ge,rs ing'" w,a.s alf adv,e:ntu'n~ .and ex,plo.ration~ 1b'e facts of t'he Am,erica:n spa.ce p'[o~ectanld its So,viet oounterp,art eHded seaml,essly' With m'uck', r,obotic: exp,loratiion ,of ,t.'be:s,olar system 'wilI cOin'ti'n _, '\']iln,d "'c"'IO"O'l-~ A'·· S'."·p,a·- '0· dy. n l'"n~,('\th,Q ,can'ta~y:·nf "'S:tar Tr.Qk"'!!' ,u. ue~, B'ut even th'ere" i'he risk is of diminishing returns ..Every !l,u ~ plan,el hlas no!w 'b'een visited, and !every 'p1lanet with a sOilid sur~ Other 'p!lan,ets m.ay or 'may :n,ol h,ave b'ffn inhali)ited by alie-ns b'u,t fhey~and ev'en, o'th,e'f staIs, w,ere th,ere for ·.,he ta'lking'4' 'That face bar ,M,ercury :has been, .landed ,on.. Aster'oids", m'o'ons an!d, the talting w()uld begin in, t'he Hfetmm:es 'of peopille th:e',n ,aliv'e ICOimets h,a.v,e' ,a.11b'een ,add,ed, tOI the stamp album, ..U'n}.ess Hfe was widely assum,e,d'lo be't[ue~ turns U,pi on M,ars, or so,mew:here eve:n m'ore unexpecte,d, ,plubi''' NOI lo,nge'r~ is !quite c:on,c,e'ivabime t'hat J6,!!"OI,o"olk:m wil~ p,rove It lie: :interest in the 'w,ho:le thing' :is lil{e]y to w,an:e'~ An,d, it ms the th.e iimi,t of h'urn, an, ,amb'Iti,on.~ It is, e,qu.aH.y c:Q!nc'e'iv,able that the publi:c that p,ays for :it: alt ,t , ".. fantasy=m,a,de-rea .~tyo,f h'um,an spa,ce 'flig'ht wi'I. return to, fan"~ . '. , ". .,;:) ' . U. .... f' I.. Th- , .e·" f-'u' '~'ur'e·' th·· 'e'n'," 10:" 0' ,kilt', 'b-'.'olun"id'e'"... "d· '1hy '4~.h-, "a",. D,e'...w·:' fll'u4f'e· 'r' lIm'" ,., 1i'~fi;f tasy:, It 'is iik,ely that th,e Sp,a,ce ,Ag'e :is o!ver:~ planet: Earth" the geo,stationary ,orbit 'Within i.t~,he buzz of ac~' t tilvity will conti:nu,e to gr,ow' ,an,d fill the 'vac,uum~ This part o;f Bye'-bye; :sci.-fi spl,a_,c'e' wmml b'e tam'e,d, b,y hu'manity" as t'he species has t.amed S'O To,day'~s sp,a.ce cad:els w"iU" 'no, d,o'ub,t, ,op'p',ose th:at c'Iaim viglor~ m,any w'Hdernesses in th,e past. Outside itt, tho1u,gh" the vac:u,um I' 11 . Th" "' 111-1'1 ,":'. ,to "E" " £,orays, .. I"~I' OUSJly~, ey ".'''',ll ~.n parl~.1CUJla[, pOln, t- t-,0., ·'h· ,",' prlv.a.,e "., ',WI"J e ,'.'",:" t· venures 0 f, W,E. re.m,aJlD empt~ Th..ere ma.y b e occaSEona. .I~, .:"I.~I. Just alS pe,opIe mik,e lElo:n,Musk, in America. an.d Si:r R:ichard ]B,::ranso,n in m!e:n, so,:m,etim,es le,av!e th!e'ir h'u,ddled resea:r,ch, b'Bls'es in, AntarC tic,a to scu,ttle b!riefiy ac:ro,ss th,e i.ce cap! befl)f,e 'retu.rniln,g;, f()r :Britain, 'w'ho h,ope to 'make h,'urn,an s.p,ace flight ,oomm,er'ciaU,y viable~ ]ndee,d, the, enterprise of su,ch peop,l,e might do just warmth, £ood and ,comp,any" to base,", But h'umanity':S Idreams th.a.t~'But the mark:et seems s.m,al1 and, vulner,a.ble;; One part, of a future b,eyo,n,d that final frontier have~ l,arg'ely, fad,ed,~•
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Libya

Keep calm, keep going
.HE 'voices 'of those who prophesy doom in Libya ar'e becoming ever ouder, The fracas, they sa'y~,should never have concerned t. e West" which has no great interest in the, place, The Americans want less and less to, do with it, Barack '0 bama scolded by:many in Congress for getting involved in the first.place, is hid ing in N·IA··"· TI,O·"C" b ack se R!L,. Gene.. JILl .. B,·,~1i'~~II~n· France, •.... and 1\, .. . '..rrals in ' who are shouldering much of NATOI'S campaign burden, are comp laming...a... t the stress am-.d .stra ,--_.on- t,h- eir forces in try---I.I!.-_"" . ibou --,;;) ..;,~, .. !L in. -- ing to bring down Muamm .ar Qaddafi, The Gulf Arabs ,are'loth tOI cough up the cash they promised to support th,e rebels. There ~sno timetable and nOI exit plan, say' the pessimists, 'Ihe rebels ,are a shoddy lot who are lliikely~if they get into P'IO'W~ er, to, b,e no nicer than what went before, Moreover, it 'is amI about tribes, not democracy and Colonel Qaddafi plainly has a lot of themon his side, To cap,it all, N.ATO, in its frustration at fa~Ing to remove the regime in a trice, is lei ling civilians+the 'very crime mt was meant, under U'N Security Council Resolution :1973" to prevent, In, short, it is a dreadful mess, with nO ,ob", vious 'way 'O·Ut. Some of what they say is right the Americans are 'indeed losing the will to fight, 'But the picture they present of what's going on m Libya is distorted. There is no stalemate: the campaign is heading steadily in the right direction, 'The colonel's t er.rit:or.iaI writ is shrinkin,g~ .H'IS 'O:ilis. running out .D'e'fe·ctioins from his c,amp are m,oun'Un,g" :His, days, in pOiw'e:r, pe:rh,aps allis,o, on th ~searth." ar,e numD!ered~ The lea.ding rebels, th·oug'h :in.e:vita'bmy a mix,e,d, bunch" m,a.l~e in,co·mpar.abIy m:ore s,ense than the un .,inged coon,eL Tbiey' d,o nOit repr,esent o,'niy the east~ Lmlte-mi:n:ded pe'ople in. Tti'ploli are k:een to j'oin. hlatn,ds with th,em (se,e :p,ag,e 37)~Tr.ib,a. facto'ls cou'nt but d~] no,t canc'e ,out a
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general thirst for freedom as well as unity And NATO hats rightly taken, care to avoid civilian targets though some tragic mistakes have inevitably been made, Th,e big hope is that the- regime in Tripoli will fizzle from h ',' .... .. '1 ' nesweptaway, ny -. ......I ' : '1 Wlt: '"'1nrarth .er.th an. be ':.,.",'ots ,...... 'It·· ana id ,.... .. '. '•. -. "', '., ··...b ','1' rvancingre rerarmy Mindful ,ofAmerican mistakes in Iraq, the rebels have sensibly st ate d that [jviI servants and members of the army' and police, bar those who are stained with blood, will be welcome to, serve under a new order, They have called for a free press, freedo n of associati: .... a puna . yo parrties:an. d'.... c " ctiore ]f> ·_,'lll II'JiI-t-···· ···;·.·-f-', ,:',""nom 0 associanon ies I '.open, erec ... ns. o Colonel Qaddafi were unconditionally to accept the need for all of this, it might be worth negotiating 'with him. But no such possibility seems conceivable at present, This 'week:the International Criminal Court at The Hague issued ,a, warrant for his
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Get ready for a result It will b.. for the Libyans to, plot their own future. But in th,e; ime ,nediat posc=':_" .... addafi nh .' '..' ut: ' h "1'- WIJlJl "e -~,t·-·'111 .. .. .me ._ a~.e.... '. _·t"- Q ,a' _'_,a.. P" lase O'U,cSl_'·d·e. ...el.p ,- -,-'111111 ·b·.... Vlc,aJl~ IIh' I:e United N·.at.EO'DS is pondering the rapid creation of a ceasefire-.>-', . orutonng team, WIth m r'Iur }' orcamans an d per h,aps some 0f {So,J d '., the beefier Africans tlO the fore: at bigger force of peacekee piers may be necessary later but would take time to create, A new order will 'most urgently need robust policing rather than armned Jlil. ,,- " ", u· '.', force, ..' d'-..... "-'. '. . '''-'-. - " Th· ,e \i'V,es~_o!,es-', In, ·d·ee' ·d·h ·a.v'e' a. 'd'Io!g mn thIm5- .. g.'h',IL~. if ·c· .. 1. - '. ~ .. ..-.fi *,~ "'OJll'on'eM dd . ..... - :-/.,-.c. ~ ~ .. ';_',a.... ' a'- can b if rep,lace.ed bvs ....e c.en·t· reg,Ime". t h .' .c;·-I -..-.:- :,.- 0 I ",... ..·- '.'-".c,lll.' .' y a. d ,e .,1orces of m,o dernity and reform across the Arab world wii'I ,geta hu,ge .finip~ w'h'ich in tu,rn wi ill ben,efit the West i'n,a host ,of econolm:ic ,an,d piollit~cal'ways~ And ~f.he stays p'ut, the ~yr,an·ts'wil1 take sue'COUT. SO th,e West must h'old its n,erve~ in,crease the military p·ress:u['e", 'Dluttr,ess ·the rebe s, and accept ,th,at the campaign .may last sev,e-ral more m.o.nths~,]t ,could en,d a lo,t,soo,ner., When.. 1. '.' oes" ,. -ld-I -.' .. .eve.r.-:"t d'-' - th Ie- wor_, mus, t b' e . .. d '~"~" .Le nexi·t· p h".a.se. _ . _I rea.y loti ,t'h"
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OME 'ye,ars b"ack a Gre,ek 'fi.. _ n,an,ce" minister~ .fe,d up' with hms Icountry's 'waste an.d extravia'~' g.ance, ca~me,d t~hat he, could save mo,n~y by shutting do,wn the natio,nam raflway' ,and ,driving its p'a.sseng:,eIS ,aI()und mn taxis,.. He was accus"ed, of :hypierb'o!i:e' b,ut see,ms" rather, to,-a.v'e b,een guHty ;of underst.a. ement 120'0'9 th.e Gre,el~:raiIway ,collect.ed just €174m (.$;25,om.) in. far'e'S a.nd ,oth,er r-e'v'e-nu'es,,,Mea.nwhile~ it s.pent €24,6,m 'o'n w·a.ges an.d lo,sl at ttJital ,of €'937m~ D,n, JU'ne 29th~with tear g'as b'illo-wjl'fl,g aro,-nnd th,e rio,ters

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1,10

Leaders

I" ache. Its economy

is sickly Its debt, due to surpass .16;0'% of GD'l' in, the months to, come, is unsustainable. The plan does not redue€!that-and, French machinations -0 roll some private-secto:r debt into a "voluntary' package of cash and long-term bonds may make an. eventual restructuring harder (see page 6:2)~ 'Jhe government cannot finance its 'OW'n, budget deficit and will run out O;E money by mid-july without financia] help from the rest of the European Union and the IMF'~,Because the austerity plan is the price ofthat help" Greece's politicians had no choice but to vote fOI it But nobody should be under any' illusions about -what thev have sisned - up. tOI.. _. . - - .-- - y .. . o· -I The economics 0 . the plan is too zea ous, The attempt to, raise just over €14, billion in new 'taxies over the next five years will further depress the economy; so the ex t ra levies will ralse less than expected and the country's debt will be even harder to bear, The planned prrvatisation of €.,sO' billion-worth of and an a .1,., J. fi rm 'S" a ' . " a·,. I d~.:_ '(:']'0 '0'0' 'Irs' se;+r' to faI'll sh ort Part y" b eC au S e th e forecast prices are over-optimistic and partly because organising a sale every ten days or S,O' is unfeasible. In theory privatisa .. tion has the scope to! restructure the economy; but a fire sale risks £l.r.,. '_' , g. t he choicest as sets ll~ _J1 1,_,_,l_,to- ~:hah an d 'S'_ 0- f cro .- nies lettin Coal1 ll"n·',_J :~, ,~. Jb who will manipulate regulation to su ~,t hemselves, t By' contrast, the politics of the plan 'is too timid, It avoids taking on, powerful lobbies who benefit from 'wasteful public spending, FO'I" example cuts m medical spending of €]10m are' promised this year, That might sound like a lot, but Greece's
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over-generous markups to pharmacists add something like :€1.s. b,i Iion a year of extra spending to its drugs. budget alone, The government also seems to lack the stomach to see its plan through, It has said that mt will cut civil-service jobs--but the suspicion is that. those on temporary contracts, not the expensive and virtually unsackable people on permanent contracts, will go, Even the railways" which are down for privatisation, may well be sold with guarantees protectingjobs and services, On the wrong track, Making Greece's economy work better' would mean far greater changes to, ,3. dysfunctional state, That means de 'eating the unions, 'important allies for the politicians, It would also mean dismantling the system, of patronage, on which politicians thrive. Whether you ase after ,8. government j 0b a licence, or a favourable tax assessment, politicians are essential allies, Greece needs transparent and impartial rues" but politicians are not keen to limit the scope fOJ dishing out favours, Anyway; Greece's politicians reckon that so ong as they pretend to fix their country; the EU will 'hand over the money whether the plan succeeds or not, After- all, who wants to pull the plug 0'0 Greece ~fhat risks contagion ,a.Cl"'OSS the euro zone? t Every quarter, before the euro zone countries and rhe ][M,jp release the 'next tranche of aid, they must' decide whether Greece 'is on track, Every 'quarter, it will b e co me em earer that the answer is no. -

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_~elcome, bi bienvenue, WI I

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America needs to,worry about the contrast between its attitude to China and Eu'oop,e:'s
--·'N E'URO'PE~ the: red carpet, In America a red m ~ This st, % ch~i'1geon prMOU$,~e~r.2009 week's tour of European capi20 - 0, 2:0 40 60 80 tals by Wen ,Jiab,ao" China's prime minister, underlined the stark' transatlantic difference in Afrrica responses to China's economic clout, European leaders, caught up in the euro area's crisis, want China tOI buy more of their de:bt;, Amerm,can, p"olitm,eians worry that. it Olwns tlooi m.'u!ch, of theirs;; Fo;r Euroipe'an politicians the vaiu,e of th.e yu,a:n is ,o~n,e 'wo,rry among many; it sometim'es fe'els like Ame..rrmc'ans can think, of littIe ,else,~In Eur'ope,. Chinese firms are 'b-ro,B"dly w,elCD,me; ~n America" they ,ar'e'ofte:n,'viewe,d wit'h, suspicion" E'UIope's :rece'ptiv,e'n,ess. bJi China is b()iIn partly (If 'we,a.kn,ess,~ Deleg:a'tio;ns f[,om, perip:he:ral eurol"'z!on'e co,un.tries ha:ve bee:n fiyin,g into Beijing ,to seek buyers of th,eir debt 'Fix,ersworkin,g fOlf Chi'nes,e ,com,p,anies r,e'p'o'ft' a steady $'tream of in.'quiries from c,ash-strapp,ed Euro'pean firms~,But eV'en, ,a'm,ong :Eu.r,ope"s stro;ng'er e,c'on"om'ies,t th,e political bias is t'D 'p!r,omote invest:m,!ent fr,om ,China" :n,ot deter it (see :pa.ges 5:2"54)..
zania to aluminium smelters in Austra ia, But the next stage in

China's emergence is under way' and, .~wil centre on Europe. t "fo understand 'wh:y,. consider each of the world's three largest economic powers in, turn, China wants to climb the development ladder, Its burgeoning domestic markets are, fiercely contested, SOi its. firms 'want new sources of advantage like 'Western. brands and marketing expertise, Its expert-oriented firms want to!lock, in closer ties with end-customers, America is the natura place for China to 'turn tt) bu'E'the ,eco'n'o,mi!c relati.onshmp 'b'etween the superpow'lerr and, th'e' dIagoln I)r,eathin,g ,d,own 'its ne,clk is fraught Ever' :since 'C'N 0; '0 C; a state= co,n'trolm'ed 'Chin:ese oiii firm, was forc,e'd, o'ut of th'e 'b'idd'ing fo,.r C,alitl)rnia's 'Unoc.al in, 2'0'0'5 by co,:n,gressio'nal ,and :medi.a crit~ ic:$.,m,a:ny 'Illig Ch~nes.e comp,anies have f,egaI'ded Am,eri,ca, as 'fund,a.m:e'nta'Imy hnstiIe to th,eir in:vestments. ..

Ihis perce:p:tion :is:no,t e:ntir.e:Iy' fair~ Th,e 'pr,ocess for scre,entn,g ,iinward investme'n.ts :int() America ,o,n se,curtty' gro'unds do"es 'n,ot: app'e.ar to, ,discrimin,a.te ,a.g,tdnst:'Chin,a ..]B,utC,hin'ese iCt]mp'a, 'mes wanting to 'buy ,Amer~ca.n assets mus:t be prep'ared, to, risk :p!u,b,Iic,atta,ci{s h'y wealthy lo,b!bygr,aups ,an,d,fr,othin.g' co;n.,gress'men~, M..Bny c'h,olols!e to ,av,o:id Am,erica. 'instea.d;;, ,A r!ep'lort by th,e ,Asia Soci-e,ty in was'hington., ,D'C, says that s,c,ar'emongerin,g a'bout Chlnill c,ouilld 'Ie.a;d A'meric,a, t,o for.fe:it'a share of $1 trlllio,nMidd1le Kin:g,d,om,me'e'ts Mittelst,and That stanl(:!e will. h,av,e b,~ ic'onseiqu,en,ces~, China"s :fo,reign ,direct g wiort'h ,of 'o'utward Ch ~nese dire1ct' ~nv'estme:nt by 2'0'20~ inv,estm,ent to. ,date, h,as fo"eus,ed, on :i,e-curing th,e energy an,;d, r,e-~ Mor,e of that cash is mns;t:ea,dh,eading to. EUJolpe,~ lnvestment s.o,urces th,at its. in,d,'ustriali.s.ing eco:no:m',y crav'es.~ Chirne::s,e 'main" I)ank'ers there are no,w s,ur'f' to dial Chin,es,e clients if they hear th,at a firm is,a, p"ossmble 'bi,d tarrg'et Chm,es!e 'b'anks are, rap11dly iney :h.as been vismble in Asia., Airi,ca an,d, Latm Am'ericat, b,uym,,g u:p ,everything fr~)m re.'op,permines 'in Peru an1d farm and in Tan= cr'eas.ing their p,res,ence 'lin Euro,p,e~ MainIanders. ,are snapping ~~,

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S ART LEARNING A, LANGUAGE TODAY~ Rosetta Sto ne.ccm • 1 (877) 2'06-4,869

1,,2

Leaders,

..up' central London residences, Chinese direct investment abroad has. increased faster in Europe thanin any other region, The Europeans get more than, just money A Chinese, partner is a. good way' for a European brand to, gain access to, the world's soon-to-be-biggest economy Ask France's Club Med, which now has a 'big Chinese shareholder and recently opened its first ho iday resort in the country Or ,c;.. ,A" an Ita ian construction-equipment maker whose products are now marketed as a premium brand by' its Chinese owner ..0'1 Sweden's Volvo",which was bought by' Geely; a Chinese carmaker, in 2,010 and now cans China its. "second home market" ~ European voters are ess happy about at. this than their leaders: polls show that they 'view Chinese investments nearIy as negatively as Americans do..Three worries predominate, The first is that. China will strip Europe of technology and] obs, It is true that Chinese firms are often interested in buying Euro=

pean companies to,use their know-how in China (or worse, to, steal it), But Chinese firms want to conquer markets abroad as well as at home, and to do, that in Europe they must create Jobs there. The second fearis that the Chinese are buying European jewels on the cheap, But there's nOI evidence for that, Indeed, they ar'e more likely to overpay: countries and, firms 'with excess savings nearly a ways do. 'The third concern is that investments in assets like utilities and mobile technology threaten Europe's security 'But processes exist to. screen foreign investments on those grounds, There's no reason to think that they are 'wanting, and no reason to,tighten them until that changes. Chin .. outward march certainly argues for vigilance, :~oj[t a's i is the consequence of ,a, huge shift in the balance of power, and change always involves risk. But the opportunities are greater than the dangers ..In welcoming China, Europe is swimming , with the tide of history; America is struggling against it •

Thail~a'nd"s election

Ha · ds off the result ..
,HAT Thailand is holding a

Meanwhile, Ms Yingluck 'is running a slick: and brilliant

general election at all on July J,r.d is welcome, That th,e campaign to date has been more peaceful than, expected comes as a relief After an army coup in 2006 ousted Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister now living in exile in Dubai, politics in Thailand fled parliament for the streets, leading to colour-coded stand-offs and vi ~ olence: last year central Bangkok became a battlefield" when more than 9'0 people died during the suppression of protests by pro-Thaksm "red shirts". Now" against recent odds many Thais dare hope that the election will mark ,a, clean break from the recent gridlock and violence and that politics will move back from the streets to, parliament, After all. that. is what both main parties say they' want Both parties also make a p. ay of listening to the concerns of the large numbers of poor Thais who have long felt marginalised in an over-centralised country dominated by a Bangkok elite. These have long been MrThaksin's electoral base, which has been re..energised by a,woman whom Mr. Thaksin calls his '''clo:n,e,''':h'is goo,d-'Iooking Y'OWl,g,e':r S:IsteJ Yingluck. 'head of t'h'e' Ph'eu 'T'h,ai. art,'~ But the DemOCl,at P,arty~:Ied by the pri~me 'min~ p ist,er, Alf)hisit 'Vejjaj iv,a, .as als.o ibo:rr'ow,e d, 'Thal{sinit,e prescri:p'~ ti.ons" s.'uch, as promis,es of free .ar ch'8,ap' aoc.'ess to, h"e'a'Ith care' an,d educatio'n~
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Pupp,et: versus, c'Eo,D,le' Mr Abh~sit~ and, h~skey g'Qlvernm,en·t ally; fhe fi:nance m"nist,er, ]{orn C,hatilca:vanij, s.a.y th'e'y ar'e ,cosm,opolitan", fiscalliiy c,onse'rvativ'le m,arket iib!erals~ B'utth,ey :have no't-rule,d as such~And 'lh,e pIim,e' mi'n~isteI 'has o,ne h'u,ge point. against. him: he ow'es his
p"osi.tio,n to an army~b,ack,e,d stitch=u'p,~ H,Q'wever' 'welly'meaning" h,e has b,een sha.p,ed by eve,nts instea,d of ,contr.'ollitng them~ T:he sllspi.cioln, rem,ain,s that in, a crisis h,e' is stin-_h,e pupp"e't of w:h,at is oft'en, !descr,ibeld ,as. the ,~, irresis;tib'Ie f~.]rc,e;"of the ,arm',y' ,an d th,e monarc'hist establishm,e'nt~

campaign, She deserves credit for a conciliatory tone, She promises not to avenge the coup or to rush ~ pardoning and nto bringing home her brother, But there are doubts about her sincerity; worries about her inexperience and a real fear that her brother may overrule her and rush, horne, His unbrokered return would probably be disastrous, taking the country' back to the brink 0'£ breakdown.Another risk is. that Pheu Thai's spending promises prove ruinous; though with hick, Ms Yingluck+a successful businesswoman in her own right-has the nous to recognise that. Thailand cannot a fford her most cxtravagant promises, Pheu Thai has puled ahead in the polls, The powerful people in the military and monarchist camps 'who are used to, run= ning Thai and do not like this, Having overthrown Mr Thaksin In a coup and backed the toppling: of elected PIO'- Thaksin governments through parliamentary and legal manoeuvres, the army' 'W'E I not cheer a Pheu Thai victory But it has amp y showed what ,a. mess it makes of politics, and should stay firmly' ~nits barracks now Whatever the doubts about Ms Ying uck, if Thais vote forher their choice mustbe heeded, Mr' - . hisit's other powerful supporters among the monarchists and, the B,,angk'olc ric'h .are similarmy :Ioth to acc,ed!e to t'h,e elect,orate"s infilriatiln,g ha'bit of r,e'turning un:accepmble gOV'a, ernments", they too must ,a'c'cep1t the resu t" whatev,er ~tis,,,Pheu 'rh.a~is moOre mit'ely to win ,8. plurality' t'h,a.n ,a ,cIear maj,ority .and i then, try 'lolentic'e at few' sm,al1, venal p'arttes into a go,v'ern'ing C:O aUtio,n~ If it handsfl mely b'!e.ats the Dem,ocr,ats 'yet is lc'e'p!tfro'm 'J;)Olwer by a blo,cil.irn,g cOlaliitio,n Of' 'b,y th·e diisqualifi,catio,n thr'o'u,gh th,e c~J.urts of s'ome of ~ts candidates, its sU,p'p'o'Iters wilil :fe'el, 'y!et .again, that they' h:ave be,e'n cheated~ 'They m:ay abandon h,op,es. for ch,an,g.e through the ballot b,oxj The, electi.on, 'was t'he 'e'asy par.t Th:e' !difficul b,it. co,m,es now, 'Tw'o b,uge mssu,es~devollivin,g p,!ower away' fir{lm Ban,glto}{ and ,d,efining t'h,efuture role of the monarc'hy=were ·'gn'ored in this camp,aign~,]f th,ey ,are to, b',e .a,dd'ressed~ t'h,e n,onTI,aill p'rOI,cess,of go'v,ernme'nt m,u:st resume; and for that to h,ap:plen, the los.ing 'p-arty 'm'ust le'arn tOI behav'e' ,as a loyal,opp'o,sitio:n~ '.
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1,3

Innovation and health care
Schumpeter displayed a touching faith ~ntechnology
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and innovation to make 'us healthier more cheaply (Iune 18th)..But as usual, the con-

tals, develop a factory' mentality across the board.
FRAN cis WELLS
(CHi1:SU

mentioned in the- column, Those are vital functions that cannot be maintained if hospi-

:taly';,s recent hiSt'ory Ita' y (june nth) echoed a prejudi ce that is also comm on among Italians who take pleaSUIe SIR _ 'Yb,ur special

report n'n

versation about saving money ~nBritain's National Health Service got cornered into the

few areas 0,(' care that can be trea te d. a m' "focuse d factori es ~.; ~ or those few diagnoses that ave "mea surab , in cat h :~.v~-, '~Q.'~, ~Il.'~ ~_ 1'~lllll[ d ~ :' o're ;;, I: am fascinate d 'by the prospect ofmy next suicidal patient hieing invite d remotely to scan hils or her preferred health-care treatment: out of an NHS supermarket.If Schumpeter is se-rious about saving monewl don't think his suggestions wi 1 make any sort of impact on, the messy and, ill-defined lnteractions tha t charactertse pri mary' care, whichis where 'most of the 'NLHS budget is spent .l do agree thatthe 'N,H$. is
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Pa pworth Hospital ('{lm'bridge', Cambri~9',eshi:fe marvelled at the provision 'in America of ~~om pute rise d life style coachc
SIR _,Schumpeter

lta nt cardiac surqeon

selves, ~et.there have be en. ge ne ra lions of pa triots for
whom Italy was something serious ..In the mi d-isth century .3, great politt cal and cultural movement was born that inspired writers such as

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es" that send patients "e-mails telling them to mo dify their be havio ur", h eal th -care firms. that allocate "diabetes suffer= ers a diabetes specialist" and a ho spi tal that "has reduce d ho sp:ital admissions for .01d er patients by 'more than 10'% b,y

using remote m onitors", 'Yet
none of these cost-cutting

not responsive enough to patients' w ishe s or nee ds:;,this

comes across loudly and consistently' from the public. But progress ms 'being made to tty to
improve this within (or family doctor) train ing, In order to. pass exams now,
GP

~~ innovations' ~could p-roperly be considered ,as actual, and expensive, medical car,e:~ Just: see 'what happens when you get a. truly' dreadful illne ss and your insurance company wants to haggle over the treatment, 'ill' do. not think a. "computerised' lifestyle coach" would come in 'very useful
then.
G R[E[iORY HOROWliZ

Mal'nz,o.nmand composers I~ke Verdi, and encouraged debate among thinkers of the calibre of Cavour" Rosmini, Cattaneo, Gioberti and Mazzini, Moreover, it is nom true that "the people" were, not part of m'he Rtsorgimento~ In 18,48 all thi€ great cities .of Italy IlOSieU,PI: Me ssina, Pal erm o, Naples, Rome.Florence, venice, IG,€:noa, Milan. Indeed, after the uprising 'Cad 0 Cattane o, o ne of the ,Risorgim,ento's leaders, vi site d. the city morgue to find that 4'00 Milanese labourers and artis aDS had died in the, fi,gh~m'ng~ aribaldi demonG strated to, Euro:p e tha t ]t!a.lians were able to 'fight and die to regain their iomeland, [This
remains trUi€ today Italian soldiers are sacrificing th'em=
t

'WhU.e ordinary Italians pay over €40'O billion a, year for thisil eg,aHty,yourreport recommended more .0,(, the kind 0f "fiscal r-esp onsibili ty" and, austerity that makes things worse for ordinary taxpayers. It would be more fiscally resp onsible to attack tax fraud, corruption and d+ organ +se.;, cr:mm,e~'Th+ W',ou ld: . I• .. "'" '1 ,eo, 'boOt~h· ,~.oa~ ,f'!* r~l-y:-:-to- I e'~~ produce demand-led growth by reducing tax burdens on ordinary cit i'z,ens and companies", as well as reducing the motives people have for adopting nepotistic business strategies, The answer is not hberalisation. but legality
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Co-director, Irrterdisdpli na ry

Approaches to V'io~,e'nice Proqrarnme Un~iy.erslt~.lof Aberd ee n

train,ees ha.v'e to sh,ow tha.t ~hey,ha-.v'e ~:rield to 'put~he pati'enfs oO'ntrib'uti,on at the ,ce,ntre- of 'decismo:n=m.aking'! The NHS d,oes n'f:,ed t:o ,ch,ange an,d to sa.v'e :m,o:ney~ But op'position to this gov'ler,nm,ent's particular set of relo:rm:$ i,g n,at th,e sam,e~ ,as op'posin,g :ilUlOv.atilon",,atS Sc~hum.p,ete:rlazily' assum,es~

what you will about [tai~ I'll lodge within the stone walls of a Tuscan, villa built in '1l66,~ Brunelle 'by its p O() I to! sip the hens of an sth-century abbey, dine on P,ffOfi110 che iese and pici pasta with ,8.. jungJ1i e ricon'a sauce, ,eat quaf] m the :E1IUS can vault of Osteria da Divo in Siena drink my
SIR _, Say

New'Yo!./( :P~e:jiu,dilced lilb,€!'rais

,JENNY NORTH

Mtl'ti.ock, ,Derbys.hire

¥ourre,vm,ew of Ow,e:n j.onlfsts 'boo!k ,on the "'de'mo'n.ie'~lti'! n of~lIfho 'Wi ... K.!It,:=' ~se'U .-:la."· o !~"6---or',l.-iingc. ,0:-,6 ~n Blimain slrirt,ed. around, th,e p olfu~fucalissue s e~ Giving' th,f: poor a good kiclking;;,Jun,e '18tht Derogatory terms. such ,as nchavs';"~.jus.tUke ""redneck'\ utr~ 'I" ~IQ *Ia ~h'" or 'j!.w.~n d e;al .!ti.~. [ 'l.l!h
SIR I! .. _ I :1
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s.el:v·e:sin Afgh:anistan ,and, th,e Midd~.e- East for their famil~,es, (:e.rtai:nlYt b,ut ,a~.so ,£0 r the:ir
Thm.s too,is a smal~ ,sign th"a.t w,e :EtaU,t:lns ar,e much, more atta.che d to the m.d.e,tI nf'MtaJ.y t"h,an we 'preten.d,~ redUice To nati o:nal :prfud,e to colonial adv'e'nturism ,and military aggre:ssion is to do ,a ,grav'e' mjustice t:o me,n and, wome:n whose stO'ries Euro,pe'ans shou],d le31rn,more of.,
A LCO tAZZ U LLO

espresso on,the Piazza de] Popolo ~'n MontaIc~,'no"or Just
S oallc in

co'unm:ry.

th'e: Ie d carp ets ,of' th,e Thse-an POPPiy fieldls,., You, can w.a.rry ,a.bout the: llest
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Ma,ny go,od, P (l:ints were m.ad,e in Schump"et:.erj's column on wh,at th,e NHS could learn {]lorn oth,er ,countlies.~ Sev'era~ of 'us in th!e :h,e,a~.th :rofe ss io:ns p h,ave: b,a,ttMed exh:81ustively,to m,ake' efficfen,cy ch,anges and all tO.o ofte:n foun,d o:u'rselv'le's blocl~ie,d by ,decrepit'man,ag'f'= men,t structures,., ,Howev!eI, itt JisOJ,mjstake to . ~,'ump th,e NHS'S ma:n~7'parts t,ogether as. an e,m'baUled shru,p fighming ,off m'h,esmn:rms 'with a ,d,et!e~ml,mamion o remain m' un,chaU,enged~ Q'uiet r.ev-olu= , I~] ons~"-'~I--,h·- --', are, ,:ap,pen.ln,g"" A~"l-~- "rnI'~'D' SO, .a a _
8.1 R if'I-:"'--C,' _,_._,i._ -,

uw'hih~:trBlsh:""~,are ,now icom= plet:ely a.lcce:pltab~,eto urban, Ifberals~ wh,e-re atS the p' nor

fJilom oth,er em:hnic grou,ps. are tr,eated, wi~:h reslP!e,ct,~,ass;umed, to. be t'he vicU:ms of structura'l ra.'cism, ,Bln,d[thus ,are ,not to blalme for mh,eirlP,red'ic-a,'me:nt P1oH.tfucalmy;, 'view' of :p oar this w'hiles is a factor ,contrib'uting to' the P'OPlllist bOJ,(~klash. ru'n lib,eral parties; w'hich, used to be's:taun1ch defenders of the w'orklng: class but have; a.'ban-' d,one d thms Cl() nsmimu:ency in favour.of hirp:p,er mino,ritj,e:s~
OSKA,IR LIN ~)SIROM

Rome

,d-roppe1d from 40,th, to 4,9th in m'he 'Worilld Press Fre',edom lnd:ex and. fro:m 31Si: to 67th :in the iCorrup1tio:n Perc,elJ.ti,on
In,d..ex~ C,orrup,mion is estimated at €110 0 binton ($,142 'billilion) ru.n th,e pu'bllii c: s ector ,at~,on",A ft,er e

SIR _, Sin,ce 20"01, ItBl~.y has

Unes u,tt€rred 1by O'lson 'WeUes in '~TheThird,M,an;"': UIn Italy lor 30; years 'u'nderth.,e Borgia.s they' ,had warfare,~ t'e:r.rOI~mur= de-r, an,d bMoodshed, but they p:rod,uce d Milch;f:~a.ngellio!; Le'ona:rdo dOl V:in,ci andl ~h,eRenaissan,ce~ In Switzi€!'rl and thiey h,ad. brotherly love" m'hey ha.d 50"0 years of de:mo,emlcy an.d 'pe,llee,~ and, 'w'hat ,did tha,t produce? The cucko.o, icllio,clt,,~~
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The, regime of Bashar Assad Is tOHerin,g,;ji His fa'U would prebahly tri:g'ger' a short-term surge in violence but ,9, better' government would e,me'rge lliru d ang ]" hape d"country Mall,s ana sou k···S are e-s . ."_ T 'WAS the biggest meeting of its kind for deserted, Cafes are: half-full, the smellof de cades: 'under the watchful eye of Presid e m ,t" Be: a' 'so h a"r A'" s a"d' s ecu 'r'l',i~l,j' 0'0" '0'"In's 1,IE',O'--: *';7' cardamom coffee and, cherry tobacco spicin g th e h 1I!...1' "UI ~ s'~ nV111 0- 'U s qu es t"'~11o n rau !U, "A,!!!. dissiden ts veteran op p (1 sition figures and Will Syria end like Egypt and 'Thnmsia?']t former political prisoners met in Damascus on june 27th to denounce the regime's se ems unlikelYJat lea st in the short run, In brutality and demand a peacefu] transi- those countries the army sided 'with me h ~ "t t tion ',', democracv Tile streetp rotesters dis- pro t est ers, wr ereas 10_, 's ria n h.as not, ,,' to . , r,y." '. '. ..": '. ",,' " missed the conference as a compromise Might Syria follow Lfbya's example? So far, with the regime, They want 'no truck with, there are no signs of a regional split Wha.t about Iran, which brutally and successfulit, "We h ate the government," says one young man who was detained and tor- illy' crushed a revolt fun20,09 an d which is a tured, "That's aU th a.t: counts n ow. ,,~ Other el os e Syrman ally?' Ev,en that is differe» m~Jran is 'run by an elected government (though, demonstrators parody Muammar Qaddaft's ~h"r~~.U., to hi,unt do iwn opp _- on en t"S' "al- the poll was. rigged), not a. single family It ear ,~JJJlIJ YIt' ~ Ol 'I' .:y .A" .-has end.less oH :reserves; iis secta~ri,a.n ,di,~y- b-- ,atII':c!'Y' '. "u UI e'y- b=- at 'I .w.e'y;, h 0us.e bv Y' ~I - Y h,ou;S.e',~~hey ,chant~ '~'Wewant your :hea.,d" vm,d,e :is. mm~nr ,illnd, ruts. securIty foroes :mo're t o '~o- nh~'s:-: ca-: ~'~d'- "Y":I-~il '~!s~'ha-:'.',v '-: '~'. -:' (6[" k-..' ~II~IIe'-:-,d'~I t~1 10' 0' Bash,ar.,;'" Bu,t the D'runa.s,cus meetin,g", ,and, I lu, j[JIl .... -,.. 1 ,1\:'01'\ ". -'. ,ill 'UprMSID.'n,gsm tow:ns s,uch ,as H.ama a.nd ,Deir --~~..-'·v' peO,plIle, [!Len i!f'~"- - ,as ,~. , " , ","a.S.In ! ,.. III.lme's ~ ma.ny .ranMost signific:antly~ th,e Ass,ad, :re'gime=h,aIDf ez=,Zor~ shows that Syri,a"'s o:pplos~tfuon has ~ .'-." .,,-. - ",,- ,. -. I " a dozen mmimy :m,em'bers caiM the sh,ots= ,gO'Defr om" b"-' ."-.. - .-, a. f" :ew-. scattere:",' ":"'", d groups ein:g ~ ...-., ,"' -, " . . . homdin,g sp,ontatneous~ isoillated, p:roh~:sts in, has acted 'erra.ticaJly" 'Bashar" th,e president~, swings, betw,ee,n 'b:rutaill Icrack,down.s .and M,arch tOo be,com,e a, n,a,U.onwide: force~ More tha.:n, 100';,00'0 peop~,e :n,QW de:m'-' Val,CUOUS conces.sions~ That ,does not bode onstra me ,every Friday ,('[n,d the regfume ,c,an'-' wellli fo.r a d:i,ctator under p:ressur1e .. 'M'" .. not 'reln th!em in, though it h,as ,c~osed,roads ,neon,""'tr-" "t ,a.s,,",yrla S OppOSJ:"tl'~on IS becom.. ,- ". _"" ." ~ +d '. .' £' ..e,rent, as we"1'1a.s menle WI. e to :resttv'e' tow'ns~ :renn"."-'orce"d t hIe": .or d':ers ]in,gmore co,'h . 'b -" "" "- -"- - -,I" h- - - - "" - - - " an,d r,estliet:ed acre SS, to the inl,ern'ft De'=' sprea -d 'It IS c.enl t re d., on, a, you ill'- ,m,ovemen,1 t mOfls,tralions hav'e bele~nheld fun,at'least 15'0 based, o,uillside thie ca.:pilal.. Its ,de:mractors ,are, towns ,an,d villages in aU, corne'fS of th,e tJi= right w:he,n th,ey say that few articulate
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chief economic reformer 'until 'he was fired The central compact of the Assad Ie= gime ils breaking down", The president's soon after the protests started-a target for family' ~.sfrom a minority Muslim sect; the the regime'shardliners and a scapegoat for Alawites, who are rank outsiders in Sy,ri,a~ its failings ~ ,n th,e past the Assads have relied on accounting for around 10% of' the populaJORDAN pub ic mdi fference as wen BlS, outright retion, His father seize d. power tn 19'70 an d pression .. Syrians 'used to look, at neighstruck a bargain 'w-ith the richest mers-" - - ' m w, " nons imposed b,y the Buropean Union, Ch ams, -- -h 0 are mos tlv from t'h.e sunru ~ rna. bouring Lebanon ,a.n,d Iraq and conclude ,y 's----]~.z '-~='=',!~6: ,. a 011 forp ,011"1",:yr I.~ 's b lggest 'tra di ns partne r F' 0 re 1"0"';& 1n .that stability mattered more than freedom, '~ . ~J.'t who m ...ak u n '7,1!:'~" In return .Ift', It. ]'!oin'!'lfflJ' . '. But the Id.illlliin,gof so many' countrymen this vestment, on which Sy:rian growth has ical support, the regime pledged to protect year is changing that view ~'~WE: have he- been built in. recent years, has dried up ~In a their wealth, The merchants got 'rich hut recen t spe ech ,lVIT. Assad talked abo ut the few warme d to the- Assads or th eir Alawi te come citizens, when once we were sheep," cronies, who have behaved like mafiosi, says a middle-class Damascene, Fear of the thre at of "economic collapse" ~ security forces; which once kept millions Public finances are in deep trouble" The demanding a. slice of every pie, Now a. growing number .of merchants believes at home, :iseb bing. No authoritanan state president has raised government salaries ~ a sustamedd d ec me In tts au- and various subsidies to appease the: the regime 'has become bad for business, .. can survive : thority+and the government's writ is. populace, He cannot afford to do this, The They think that rather than ensuring stabil,. ~ ~ :~, . . U' .. ..,. '~nl' ~ stab it-': shrinl JL{]' ;'~ v'"I"sib ]11 'Tbl.o P'olice no ' onger .w_'.- government wil probably 'print the mOD- 1"t.y, it ~h· m ui.nl ca,. ,se of I .,. b, y, d ,Qilm.bln g - -'1Il~ '.ill. . .re ~- ~"II,;;; IV .. ;'='!O;;F is ~ erately stoking sectarian tensions to S,CBln~' f!.y' to meet 'its promises, so runaway inflasue sp eedmg nckets or parking fine s. Unliti on is.lil{,elli~, further fuelling p opular anger. people off the street, censed traders lin the souks+once chased '1"'-,: '-''· away now occupy p.rlm.e spots, Ill eg,a m as cash deposits become 'worthless" .. Other parts of the Assad coalition are wobbling, too, Christians, numbering Capita] fl],_gh.t: .srampant. Drivers on the ~ construction is rampant, "Everyone is addro,a,ds inllt'o Lebanon talk of cli'en.ts gomng around :lO'%~.have long backed 1Ithe regime, ing a new floor to' their- house," says a hom,e .owner ..''''Offi,cials n,o llionger objiect~' t'h.a. from their bank: :in DI,a,mascus strai_g:ht. to c:aJ.cul aL t~lhlg t the:'y are 'b,etter off wi mh the Allia'wites than. 'the'y would 'be u'n.d,er maj orA'bove .aU" th,e :k:Ulings a'n.d del ,e:nt~.on-s nne: in Beirut; car.rying ~.arge'ba.,gs. A,cco.rd"t--_-:'~ . '. ,," I'~,- B; 'It' ' . ,,'_:__: are faUing mo cow t'h.e protesters,., 'Jortu're ing '~()one estimate~ $2~) l billion, has left the l'l.y,'s":unnl rU!Jle~.ut ~'hl a. t!00 may 'b_- "c'hi',ang, e - "-, ,,_,' victru~ms:hav,e 'b,e,come pro,test organisers,., At ,c01Lntry sfunce March; :put.tin,_g~ w pressure ,on ing,. IChristia-n ~.,ea.de'rs ho we-re ferv'!€ndy ' the: 'b' ,ac,k"lng,- 'th"- rS'g~.me a. '-,' ,--:-,,th'"agO a.re now ,an 'u'nde:rgroun,d m,e,eming m.D Jun,e, 'OD'e .of t:h.e-Syrian ,p,oun,d~ To sillow cap,it,d, fl~.ght~ . .' ,,'·' ' ,.,e ,- - "'-" ,-'" mo.n, " -m,any' 'vi!ctjms. of 1'h.ere,gim,e d,esi(rjl~}ed b,e'- gov',ernm,en t h,as. 11'ds!e d In t,e::f\e:st :ral't!es~ A m.or'e ca.u.tious~ They stiU. fear lbeing target= i.'ngdoused m'n cold water b,e:fore 'b,edng iele,c- pho'n!e co,mpBln'y controlled 'by' mhe Ass.ad ed if civjl smrit:~: rupt,ed,., Bum- it is no longer e trocute ,dlby' cable s a tla,che d to 'his g-Ie:n~.tatllis,., fa'mily' sent o:ut me·ssages 'uIgin.g· 'pe-op,Me to c],eaf th,e Allia.wffi.te·s wou~,d pl]h"otect th.e:m~ ~ '. th HID.Salllm=: t 0 ID.ns:pilr,e'~:no t s,care", '-'f POOlt es= put mon,ey' b"atck into th,eir a. c(:ounts.~ So'me Christians. ba-.v'ejoin,e d plrotests~ S,ut a run on the b,anks cann.ot be :ruille,d Syri.a"'s sm.'z,ea1bID.e Kurdru.sh minority' ters=s,eemed.to be achi-ev!f:,d" 'The m.o:mentum. of change m,ay accelew= out Over t'h.e :past few Y'e'arS ab!out 60%, of' (about 10% of' the POpublUon):is also trying' illendin,gin Syr~a has b,e,e:n, for jp,eop,le 1,0' b,uy to w'ork oumwh,o wou].d bes't: serv'e th,e~.rin,a:b~; oo,n,. Ra.m,adlan begins i'n, early August s ~:h. ,"i " own I cars,., ~,-,,any ,c~nI no 'I,··· I" ' . " J!;{eep t'" ' ·' '~'.Th:e ",- ,',,' h", OlUere.,. !dl,t :turn., t' 'hi M·· ... ··1 I" onge.r ~I., .. " I~ e]I .. eres~s", ' reglm,e, ~,a.s fC :" ,ore . ..e ,an"dma.ny Syrians wUl t~h.en. stan: to visit mh.eir m,osq.u.le'-s, r.allying ll)OID.ntsor the ,d,e'- up w:ith paym,ents.~ A. meadting fin.an,cier citjze'nsh~p 'wh-ich it to,ok awtlly from so,m,e f of them fn 1:9!,63;..· Ir.aqi 'KUr,di sh l,€!'ad,ers.,. inmo:nstta.t~ ons., d.aiiy~ 'rath,er th Brn we elk Iy., sa'Ys~ iliIf lone of' the smaU,er banlli{s de:fauits; The p-rote st le8,d'f:rs th~~nl{ may p'rove ,a we ,an g.o, down,.,;~·Som,e branc'h,es are !e'Ve'n cluding President Ja},al Talab,a:ni~ 'W·h.oS'f: this. displayin.g 'mill ions, of doUars'-]'n lbu'ndles turning !J.oint: ~~Friday'every da~"~they say. :p,eople: across the borde-:r have won .auto'n= -f' ,- - t ,- e -d d' ,lg - fe,assurE ,Ma'ny Western. obse:r.vif'rs ar,e s,y,mpaomy~hav,e be:le:n gilvmg,ad.vice~ Some Syrian o noes- - pI~'l '" e.a.: - hi -h t1.0 -- - - - ' , - war " ried !custom.ers,., Some l(,ee:p e:no'ugh cash in Kurds are ,d,e:mo:nstraUng ,against thif' re= theti.c. to th,e p rote stiers b'ut s!cepti c:a~ofth,eir stren,g:th anld (:oh,en~:n,c!e:. Wha.t ma.tteIs th.e' vau].ts to repay a].most half their ,de:pos= ,gjme=t'h.ough. they (andl the protest le.ad= e.Is) are, wary of ma'k.ing th.'e Oplpl'osilt~.on, more, fusthe re'gime' futs-el[ Its plower is fast ito:rs on ttu~: pot s er'od:ing~ It (~(luldl,eoU.aplse- un,d,er m~h:eweight ... ""We are heading ior,a bri,ck wa.ll/" s,ays at seem like an ethnic up,rising;; man resp,onsible fo.f se've-raJ. perc:-enta,ge of ,it:s-D'wn fa.ilings;; points of GIDP~ Wfuth th,e r'egime b,ust; th!e Bearish on Bashar 'B,rick wall ,ah,ea.d ,eillmte' ]ik,e ly to be: asked t,Q. 'baH, it o'ut Rllmi is Da,maSC LIlSstoe Ik€if>::!: hang 8" wei £Ihb~! ] ndex, d T:h,e imm,e,di.al't,€ threat: 'co'mes from m'h,e Makhllio:uf; Syr.i.ats richesm :m,an and the Ocro ber 3rrd 210'1,0-]00 ,economy., Busin.'ess activit.y is ,dow:n b,y pres,i,de'nes olJusin" said as 'much durffi,n.g ,at .ab'out ha~f".act-::or,ding to le~ntrepre'neurs and n~:,ce:n t Jl:lf1eSSconfere:nce" Havi'ng pie d g:,e,d to 110 a'nalysts" A ,com:pa'ny' s,elling c:ar,-,engJne oim :giv'e u,P' :p,art of his w'e,a.llith", h,e ad,d,ed: "~I,callli has s'een sales dro,p' by ,80'%'.' '~'And.this is not u.pon Syrian bus'in.ess meade,rs.to foHow' this I a muxury' produ,cm/'" says one of th.e owne:rs,., examp ..e,'b' ec.ause our n.atID.on IS mnnee_ d 0 f' Most :firm.s have sa-ck!e:d e,mpru.oye,es or cut s;up:port Thle: ti.m,ehas com.e for gilvru.ngrath= payor b,oth", Acco.rd~,ng to 'rough estimattes, 'er t:han tatl~i:n"g~ t" B,ut Syri.at "s Cat p ta.ins of ill:nd'llstry- ,aLre·as,kunemp,illoy,m,ent h.ats d,oubled this year or ·II,;;;Y' ... n ffi'lffh' . f~om abou,t: 10'%" ,Offici allisw'orr'Y that g;ratn ffing 'W· h.oth· '6 'lffh.o- m-us'lff ngo do 'W·I. 'W,llL~' tho '~h';ip.·:n 'n'e-- p,"uts I"'t S'"o,'1m t' '''l111,,,'11'ng,· <t'h.i!lJI"·I' suplplfes :are low ,and foo,d s:hortag,es (Guild ,", __ .!!1, . '~' ~J1\..!!1_= .. 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mascus. But: "the system cannot 'be reformed," says ,8. former top official, bluntly, St1, might the regime go the other wa~ attempting harsher crackdowns and targetin .g' chur'ches a-n d m 10' sqUQ ~:-p. r ha p.e e through proxies+to divide and, rule the sects? A growing number of citizens are arming themselves ..Future tussles 'with the security forces are likely to result in many' more deaths, But a violent meltdownis not inevitable, The Alawites seem unlikely to start a civi war" They ,are a. small minonty and would probably withdraw to. thei lti mountain redoubt if under existential threat, They might seek to provo ., communal or religious clashes .. But Syria. has. seen no b,ig communal clash since 18;,6'2." Reform, repression or re:gio'nam 'war? I' Ind ee d t h e on.y peop,'1 ~, e regime-, can when Mu:sl~ms burned down Christian ~ ~- , n _ 0" i eh houses in Damascus. 'You.might think that really count on seem to 'be the security' forces, The top brass-mostly staffed by' Syria could se e an Islamist takeover, But, f 'A_ll'tawne 'Ioyansts- has vi _ i '" 1 11" =Las :gru.ven.no hi nmt o:_. when. the Muslim Brotherhood was a le!.: id A th h_ey h SWI",c_.. lng S,I· e.s.. ,_, d n ow " tnat t.. , =ave t hi _ _n gitima te p ali tical ]I) arty in the 19'5 0 s, 'it got spilled S'O much 'blood" their options ar-e only' 3,-6'% of parliamentary seats, Even government insiders-with an interest tn limited Even S'D" months. of cracking down are taking ,at toO,n", In some hotspots troops playing u'p the threat -estanate that the are short of rations and depend on local brothers would get at most 15'0 today people for food, Expanding operations furPe rhaps the regime could try' to start a ther will 'be difficult, A number of units. are regional war to distract from problems at being' kept out of the fight: because they are horne? It could attack Israel directly or 'via :not trust.ed~, espe:,ciaJly o:n.es fin ed, wili1!'h its any Hizb,ullah in Le·banonm It: cou~d .ask Sunnms~ Manaf TIa:ss,~a senior c,omm,an.d,er ior mo:r,e Mra:ni.an SU,PP'Qrt than. rut ,aJre'lld,y in th,e eU.te:Rep'u.'bI ru,c.an 'Gua-rd a.nd son.of a. gets~,even. a.t th!f risk. of drawing in Saudi '. ~': 1- IS . ~ .' 1 :6ormer d£' ence mlnmster, "",' staymng h .ome Af.Blbfa on the' sf.de of' the op p ositlo'n~ [the e region"'s, m,ai'n faul dines wou]d mh,en, 'be for unk,n.own re"ats,ons~ A- d~ to some an.a .ysts, on Iy a starkly 'e'xpos e d.: Ar,a'bs 'v' jp,ersia.ns, Jew'S, cco~ ..1n.g q,u,arte'r of th,e' total armed fbr,ces of ag,a~nst'the rest B,ut the: Mi d.dmielEast ms al~ It roughly' 4,0'0',00"0 is well equ~'pped .and ways full of su,ch tatU{~ rare:ly ,81m,o:u'nts to - -y ~ d ht rea,d ,y t.0 fig, .. an" o.f th ese on ill h- .a.. f',', or . mu<c:'h (thou.gh 'w'h'en, it ,dio'es the ,con'se= ,q'uences ,Bire terrible)~ ]tan, ]sr.ae 1" 'H&z bullah 50,.O,OpO m,en is re:aUy relfua,b,me" Twice ~·ha.t :n.'um·ber is de·mo:n.stratin.,g ,each week" So an.d Sa'udi ,Ala'bia ,a]] stand to illose a ,gr,eat a ;01' c~r. ,t-ha rI\;,·~." m"1e-.. h' as ",,)-,',1 iII,u.... Y ~11"n ,·th· th·,e en 1Il JL.K.· a't l~ '~, _ deal from. an an'~'out con.flict: Jin, Sylia~'Th.e ' Assad :regim,e :h.as ~.ong' se'fn its baA:king' for 'u,pr~.sffi.n,gs h,ave been s,equential" mov,i:n.,g· fro'm, ~ln,e'jp,ru,aJA:e to t·h.e next~ mf th,e .pr.otesters rose 'u'p at onc€') t'h,e :regfme !coui d lOose C!ontool. Th,at is begifl'nm.g to happi€n .. So what n,ext?· On,e possji'biUty' lis that the r,egitm,e might ,eh,ange c,o:urse ,and, try to reform" ,it has, mad,e at n.umber of p,romises 1'to prot.e,ste.rs" SUt ,atSnew '1aws. on po '1'. '. . ltica p,artiles~, 'e:ie·'c~jo,ns in A:ugusm: an.d a reduc.= tilon of th!e p,riv.iJeged status of th!e ru]jng Ba.,a.th ,party. It has caU.ed, a "'inat~.onaldia:-' logue summ!e~ for midl-July to tan~ aibQum th,esle,~B;ut· su,eh promises sound insin:oel,e'" It is not ,ch~,a.r 'ho might· a.tt·,end th.€!summi~ w (tl-h iIj[i;]P-I-:P 01s· ~'tl",n' '~i-y-:-~'h.t::!i c" ra,cll{~I...lo=w-:-.~n' ·m··u . C"t· o t' I, UL·, .: " ,. stOoP first)' .. The 'ptes:i d,ent 'has 'b een taUring' abiout p,oliUc,a1 rle:~orm. for ,at d,ecatde~ G~.ven the bloodsh'ed~ ,his p:romises would almost c:,ertainIy 'be to,o lit.tle" too late=even if th,e'y w'ere: fuU1U.le,d; which. ~heymay ,not be.. 'Th,e regi:m.e see:ms in,cap,abl'e oOf op1e:nin.g· 'u:p .. ,Amnesties alh'ie:£olillow,ed by wa:ves of ar-· rests~ Tb1e pr,es,i,denfs cult .of personality has gro'wn sm'nce the p:flotests starm·e,d,. Re'-' form wo'uld ang,er th,e securIty servmces, his only mOYBl~allie·s" ~~n1.ey' playmg for tim,e are an,d tryitng to tal('e the, wind, out of ~he d,e'-' monstrati.oDs,!!'''' says oO'n!eobse·rve,:r in D'a~' Even the' Assads' own Alawite minority :isnot guaranteed to support the: regime. If there were a civil war they would no doubt stick toge ther, But A lawite families provide some .of the most p rominent dissidents, ineluding a poet called Adonis, Aref Dalila" an economist, and Louay Hussein, a. writer and activist, Although the Assads have looked after their own relatives most Alawites remain desperately poor, Some villages in their horne region near the 'Iurkish border do not have running water, Their leaders are said m'D h,BlV€ quiet y contacted Sunni imams to seek security guarantees in.return for abandoning thi€ Assads,
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the Palesnnian cause as a source, of prestige, at home and in the region, B:ut among o ther Ara b s (in eluding many Palesti nians), the Syrian regime ~scoming to be seen as toxi c." not Just for its brutality 'bum' lor what many think 'has been its, cynical manipulatic n of the Palestinian issue, Lastly; might the Syrian regime split 01 change from within? SWInt officers stage d three COU,ps in quick succession after independence in 194,6. The chances of that happenmg agalnare small.Among the Assads, Basher's is the mostaceeptab I iepublic face, Thiere seem s ~ittle mileage In ditching him" The Assads have been anticipating COUIJ.S for 4,0 years and have cleverly eompartmentalised the security forces .. So perhaps the best outcome would be some form of negottated transition und er international auspices, Turkey; a one-time Il .he Assa s, 'k~ lth any 0 f. tne Assads.i ISworking on at' d ear t nat. would save the family face and give the Sunnis mor'€ power, Ahmet Davutogru, its forei gn minister, ~ due to visit Syria S,OOD" s ehich . , , '. ,. VDl. . RUIS·:c:l' a w .1'''' ha sa" 'n·a'-'>"]II base n .t::!i'ar·· 'Iartus J.u. . ~ "m... ~ rs a 1so taking a 'k xeen mterest, A nargam could be struck if (whenr) the regime loses control over parts of the country, Protesters might take over one or more cities like Hama, Some villages and vaneys are, a]ready barric:a.,di:n,g themselv,e,s, in" A. Syrian deno,ue'm,ent' .ma.y not 'yet be immin,ent· 'bum: the reg~,m,e :is, tottlering'" Th.€! ,extraordinary ,enduran,c,e of de'monstra. :'; ·w.,;;;.,;;;; JI!:' . ,nlyl :0" U ~I~::' ~ tors ---oak '~ift·:or W'~I~!{~I=~sp~I--'!no off·.' p\"l,t~°nco h,as 'been the key t,o. many chaillllienges to the ,an,ciie:nt thrones of :Dama.s.cus" iOn. at v~.sit 15:0! j'e,ats .ag'O ,M,ark: Twain 'wrob~ 'wIymy of the thr,ee:=:mU],ennia'='oId. city: 'c~Sh.e h,as looked 'upon the ,dry' bo:n.es of a ~housand empires,~ a:nd, ·w.H~see the tom.lbs of a thou= sand more b,efore s:h,e dies~t" .
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.~~sales l~aA.~S·, hi. vote ··d:010.' t- o.n '1.,y.w.!...··Ir· 1~-a. ]!-.:-: fo the CA_:~ralii. . . ." " V I~. some spending cuts put forwardbythe Refi asked Michele Bachmann the d:my' before she formally launche d her campublican leadership in the House of paign for the presidency, summing up, the Representatives, but also for the even more ruthless ones proposed by the Republican pundits" slightly dismissive view of her chances ..She replied, run, at suitably digniStudy Committee. She 'Voted against all the field; presidential manner, that she debills that have become red rags to the right; erv ed ~'IO: b··.o ~'~ 1II"',on" ser io U' '·5']-y."-" The best eviin '-C·111U· din '_ 'r- A·'· p th stim u.w, .. ea c-an ,_ Ius \"']p a 'dl1. 'g-IU den "c'~' !D··f··· ·thl at h·ad c··\orn-···~· day b 41o'r' .. the trade and health-care reform, She has been quick t,o. embrace tea-party activists' comwhen a.poll of hkely caueus-goers lin Iowa local schools, and churches she had attendput her neck-and-neck with ,Mitm' Romney, plaints about overweening government, e d ,Any suspicion O.f a Soh.al~- or mcud en. _.. . ow the frcnt-runner for th.e Republican nomiand even formed a "Iea Party Caucus" :in tal connection to the state 'was vanquished Congress, by the claim that her forebears "came here nation" with 22'% to 'his 23%·~Nationally her Mrs Bachmann, 'who attended a 'Chris= in the 185:0S and were literally part 'Of the support is much lower, but since Iowa will be the first state to pass j udgment 'On th.e pioneers who felled the trees and created tianlaw school, often talks about her faith, She professes to! pray for guidance (In. even the gre at mess that is Iowa", Her parents, Republican fie illd, next ye 2J1It a. win there relatively mundane matters, such. as hmng she added, had danced across 'the very would mstantly confirm her as a. genuine flo..'.'1 0: .n-.' wh ~,C"hi s he stood 0 contender, campaign staff She also makes frequent refe·ren,c,e ~o her fiv',€ chiilldre'n an,d to th,e 23 lBut Mrs B.a.ch·man·n,'s appe,al is mor!€ An,d MIS I.atehm,ann c,ertainmy .knows ~-- ~. --- S'h . . -" .d' foster ,chruldr!€n s·:h,e he.l.l}e d b'ring ·u·p.. Sh!e h· -- ·t-- p1llay !l:ow,a,~" e says s'he crm!€,i" ,a.s ,a t'han,p,aro,chmal ~ S.he is agiftedp'u,'blic speak:)OWO ..h k ., -lie W.8!S an. anti=·.8ibortion ,act]iv~.st:before e.n ter= girl .of 12." w'hen sh:e ~.e·.8!r.ne"dtha.t h,er fatm~mmy' ,er, wllt··~·.,an;at,c,' k £or .nlUs.lng· .8 crow': dl s-'h . . I. ing' poUties~ D1urin.,g· the sjx years sh,e spent W,RS 'movmg out oOf th,e. state' wher,e she was wast h aug hit,ymnslto'i' . [' h avewon.teh most b born .. Although sh,e no,w [iepre's,ents .a r,f:cenm: ,de bat'e ,am0n.,g'Rep'ubUlcsln presiden= in the: Min.nesota Sen!ate b efo:re h.er e:meva= , .-.. - - -- ..- - -'b - ._. ~- . - - ![i~r'-"o-:':n'-Io f'uI:."""n'".,.:-' ·d-· .l1!._' ._. _ ~:~-~' .' " .•.. .•. t'·1 n'- t o~· C'0'-.. 'n' -'-cr-re" S-Ji~ 'l"n-:-'.. "-'lno-, 6'.~t M 'r-C!', B h.1m·-··-· 0'.11 ,.:;t!'I~I_ .~ prosp- era us exur_ a.nc d ISt rIc.t. In. Nli"'" nnes. - a t'I a.~ b·, "fI1}- r:'310'- 1_,.d-;;ild·.it.oIllll .. , . :s'hQ' "". on JUDie 27mb. she returne,d to Iowa~,to th.e rais'er~.Atth-e ~astelection she raised. $13~6m, led at cam·p.atfugn to amen.d. the state con:sti= m.an'ufil,cturing town, of' Waterloo. in, th,e m,ore th,an an,y 0 th,e:r can,dida.t-e fo,l' t'h'e: tutmo:n to ban, gay marrilag·e~e:ven th,o'u;gh it north -'e,ast; to reclaim her :roots ,as w,ellli as H:o'use- .of Repr!ese'ntatives", 'was amre'ady fullegaJ under state- maw;; -..'~·'l -..- Rom.n,ey an d_,s.ev Mor,e,ov,eI~ unLru._l.eMr .. · ~.a.un,ch h er c,am,pa~.gn.;; ("'Everything m n.e-e"d B:ut critics mcdntafun that ,even though ~,o·", 'l;rn' '0" 'w··,--··.-· ] m,!!/;; ]1 i~d' n-:]0·' -W·: ;r;:h' ,0;, 1",0·,1 d'i ~'h~ ,eral oth,er :p:rom~'n,ent candidates, Mrs Mrs B'~l.,chmBlnnhas ro,ck-soUd conservacrow',d,. 'piictur,esq,'uely' gathe·re·d on, th,€;sunB.ach'mann has b"e,en, .at cQins,iste':nt and. ,a-r- tiv,e ,cr.e,d,€nmials., sh.e has not got 'much dlone a-' h- 'O'-'U'I s-~ ,_ lib,' !"".I [Q;'d-'l- w' 'n-:- o-·f'·I ' ''31 ]'9~'h-. ,if"e' 'n"- tur'-Y' u .' 'I~ > d,ent adv,ocat:,e of c:auses de,81M' to the: ·mos.t d.uring h,er b,rief 'p olititca~. ,c,are e.r~She, lhats d-r···g.·n··-;r>h'. mI'" bA·me:ric.a's gO'v'e-rn'me:nt~ ;8h,f: declared pl[iefisea'11- an-d'l SOCl81JlJ. y conse'fvatlve 1D., n.e'v·er. 'before: rU'n for statew~.d:e,. lliet .alonif: 'y' ri.:e:pU.~'dd],(ta:bly~ 'had stray'e'd, t.o'o far ITo"m th,e v.al~ cans,., As ·at c.,onstrn.tu,tio,nal CoO nserva tiv'e,'~~ n,a,tion, a,lli offi,c:e~S:he doe s not ch·amr a com~ ~~
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..mittee or subcommittee. No bills or resolutions she has sponsored have become law; and only rw 0 have won approval l"'n the .... HO'USie': one designating September as "National Hydrocephalus Awareness Mont·h,'; and one honouring the 15,oth anniversary of Minnesotan statehood .. Moreover, many of the issues Mrs Bachmann has chosen to harp, on about seem quixotic, to, say the least, She denounce d last year's census as unwarranted government intrusion, and said she would refuse to provide ,any information beyond. the number of people in, her household, She ],S sponsoring abill to roll back energyefficiency standards '~OI light bulbs, arguing that they restrict commercial and personal freedom, She once- introduced a resolution to prohibit the 'Treasury from scrapping the dollar and adopting a foreign currency in its stead+not a risk that seems fmmment, Mrs Bachmann 'is also prone to blunde-rs ~She recently relocated th e first battles of America's struggle lor independence from Massa.c-h.us,etts to New Hampshire, She says the Pounding Fathers f-ought tireIessly against slavery; when many were in fact slave-owners, This week she declared, wrongly; that Wate:r~.oo'was the hometown of John Wa·y:n.e (.it was home for a spell to John Wayne IGacy~a serialkillerl, Polinlact, an ,outfit:that assesses the accuracy .of controversial statements mad,€! 'by politicians, has awarded Mrs Bachmann n "fa SEt' ratings and seven "pants on fire" to Just one "true" .. Voters w:ho admire Mrs Bachmann's fierce conservatism will doubtless look past. these slips and foibles. Her current: rivals for the support of the party's more religious and tea-steeped voters are less charismatic, in the case of 'Tim Pawlenty; a form,er gov'e'rn,or of M~nn,esota; liess ro:und,ed~ in t~h.e· case· of :H!erman Cain,. a p1zza. mo,gul a:n.d. ta~k.=:show' host; o'r 'b oth., in. the case of Rick Sant:orum, ,at for.m,er sen,attor~ BU.t: that e.,ould. cha~n.ge if other po:puli[st: fire~· br.ands" suc'h as Rick P'erry~the~ go-vernor of Te:xas (who cd-so h·ats it in :for e:n.eIg]l= effi-· cID.ent light 'b'ulbs)" or Sarah Palin; th'e form.er ,g,Q.ve:rnnrof Al askat and at teat-'party' favour':ite~,en tel the race~ Mrs falin. was also. :in ]owa. this w'e,elt, a~tendi ng the· ope·n:in.g of a flattering film .a'bout· hers,e~f~ and s~okin,g' sp"ecul a ti on, as 'u,stuil, a.bo·ut hler preside:ntila.I am hi tio:ns .. , Even if .1Vlrs :Ba'chmann has. t·h.e part.y"'s right wi:ng t,o. herself,. sh,e m.ary' stilUsttuggle to wm'n t'h,e no,mination" Re'p·ub1lica.ns ten.d. to p~:um"p for e].ecta.ble ca:n.didates oV'er id·eologic.aJ.ID,y.p·ure on,es an,d sleason'e d pol=' itie:ians over relative nleophytes ..Mosm poHs MC "' .' Sh O,W._ ._J Romne'Y~ l,or (lon.e·, plutt~n.g at 'b ].n .ette:r showlng agai·ns.t Ba:mlck Olb.ama. than .Mrs ·Ba.lchm.a~l'n" Ev,en mn th!e; piarty's mosm conservative :rledou.bts" after an~the a.bliUty to ble:at Mr 'Obam.a :is thle mo:st cherished q'uatbficati'Oon .of ,aU,.,
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the banner "New Yorkers United, for MaIc - '-1'1--' 'R' .- - 1LL..~I:: .- . nage .. ',·(UCla ,Y""ep,uuucan, consus lr ants advised O'R strategy and slogans, Republicans also donated to the cause, A group of
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for passage of the bill, Most effective 'were those starring ordinary New Yorkers 'who had. ga:y' family memb erst 'parents who wanted to see their son marry' his longtime partner.a war veteran who hoped to see :hilsgrandson marry as he chose, The zm onlookers at the Pride march hugged, hollered and danced; The loudest cheers were reserved for Mr Cuomo, Hundreds of' marchers carried si gns that rea d I· ."-'. " ld d TI ~_,a.n,' Promise '1(-.ept ,"~ ;D,n on'e SI. e· a.n, "'~h ~~ ~. __ you Governor Cuomo" on the other, The noise went up several decibels 'when the police department's 'marching' band played "Here Comes the Bride", Gary Gay marrlage Payne and Dick Dehn, .54 years together; _J also earnedloud applause as they rode by ir a . 1.- aw M·sic ,·1 A' m , ,[U:_(.5_hat ...,_ .' chiaei, d,ams:' of ,s·· GTI_, OA s.an advocacy group fOJ older gays, says the passage of the law' is especial y poignant forthem ... hey' wi lnow have hospita visiT tali on rights, acce ss to health insurance, tax INI:W YO RJ( dieduct ions and relief from estate taxes ~ The Empire Statelets them say:, ".I. do' ..C t- :-. ·-I·t, l-.. s I~" doe U'nronunatery; -· .state iaw aoes . no'ttrump federal law Gay married couples are stil] 'not eligible f-orfederal benefits, JU= though. Oregon, Maine, Was.:hi:ngton and scene of riots against the police in 1965t On Iune 26th Roy OI';~Nle~iin and Michael Gigl Marylan dare consi dering similar meastoodjust across the street from. it to watch. sures, the Defence of Marriage Act forbids the city's Pride march, The couple's daughfederal recogninon of same-sex marriage. ;.. I ,,.. ter Kie-ra sat on Mr Gigl's shoulders for a Even, so, Mr'1- Cuomo sees New YOI. k as a. better view. This. y,ear"s march was e've·n. beacon of social justice and is h opeful that mo' f'e J",Q'Y"'IQ"US" 'II!.'h·'~Inl uS'U·,a'l- S,o-',m~' 3- 6· hi I',o·,u·""'s,· its. le-xam.pI,e' 'win sp're-a.d..Polls show that .at eaiUert :Nlew Yorl~ had, become th,e si.xth. m,aj ority of yO'un,g,er vot,eIS sU.p:porm maran,d most-popu~.ous, stat.e to le,g..rdise same·riag.e eq'uali t)l; sex marri.ag·e whe'n th,e gov,emof, .A:ndr,ew EXlempHons w'eI'e fun(:lu,ded m th'e biB. 'Cuom.o,,~ signe!d the biU into law~ It wil~ ,g'o for reh.gious oIganisatiOons thO'll.g-h this did n,ol satisfy' iCat~h,obc.~e.aders~ Broo:klyn,'s into effect on July 24th" After 'wah::hing the bisho·p can,ed o'n l)arIDsh,es to ban gay-m,arvOot,eon th.e:iI sofa~. Mr 'O'Neiill~ 2Ul,d .Mr Gigl riag.e S:U,PIP ort:ers from sp ea.kfung ,at e·vents.;,]f prop ose d t:o !ea;ch ot·he:r." .Mr C'u,omo catjio~ed~pressure,d and tire-- som.e· chu'rches wo:n;t ,aU,ow gay ·we·,ddings.~ p' enty of oth,er plac,e s are mm'p.atti,lentto ge-t lliessly ne.gotffi.at'led to drive mh.e b~Il through. mh,€; state Sen.ate, which ms Icontto~led by' Re·- st81rtlf,clL A P O'p·~·u elha'p el willil be lere Ict,e d in p l-b'l~i ",,' "llI"i 2009,~ tho e~. '!Jl.a.SJm,e ~:h Issue.. ~: ., ·,t- t" . ClentrallPark ,on July 30,th~ provi.din.g an .a:ffi= pU.- leans ...w.D e r ,.:- -I ., " '1.. .. .'_ .... we:n.t to Alb,any, iit was reje·cted sou·n.dm~ cUltln,g :pe'rson a.n d'k cU,jp,ca .~es~ M" tUl,a!eJl'al Not a single R,ep,ublican. support;€d it ,a:nd. Bmoom·be'.rg,; N',ew 'Yorlt"s mayor, :is en.(;ot1I= ;eJlght :De·m~)cr.a:tsvo t,ed no" ThIs mJim,e fo:u!t .atgin.,g· e-o:plme to .come to New 'Ybrlt Cit~y'to, p Re-p'ub-111'" ~'~Jic:a'ns.,..'Olne dDt J .. 29 e·mO'Cf,i'S t 0 pus. h- g'et ma:rr.ied.~ .Hms tourism. office hats set up ~ ... ,an "'N'¥',C'='] Dlo'" 'wlebsih~:" Wed,din.,gs mean it thro'ugh~ Olne~M,ark 'Grisanti of Buffalo,. opposed ,gay' marriage fo,r relliigious reat= moOney for t:h.e ,coffers of both c~,ty a.nd sons, 'b'ut Ico'u~,d,not justify' ,denyin.g to g,ay sta.t,e'i' Mn, ,Ma'y so:me De:mo crati,c 1eg:isla.tors ,estimat,ed th,at w,ed,ding goods. an,d S,€!I-' Icoup],es ~he ~J24 I~.ghts.and lega~ protec" Uo.ns th,e state offe:rs married couples .. v~ces for g.ay ,couple·s 'wo:uld gene·r.ate U'Who am r~, ,aslt,ed, 'ito. s,ay th.at som,e·- ;$284m OV'ler t.hree ye,ars for New' York ...Mr 'he one d,oe·s, nol haeve· th,€ saffi,e; rights tham [ a 'NeilU .and .1\itr' IG:i.g'm~tog'ethler 17 'years, plan m- W hav.o w~lth :y- -- 1Il1J6:' to get :marrmed. later this sU'mmer~ '~'We"'re . M··1'- ·C·-·uom-·IO! '-w':":"o,r"kQd' c'l!oC'"olly" , -w·· ·.~ith· o'~y-:--. g-oin.,g·to :h.ave a. smaU. 'w',eddling~"" says .Mr ~JIl_, '. ~ o 'NeiU,t "'1but .at 1bID..g re·c:ep,tjo,n~ ~~• rig··hts. gr,ou'ps~ consolidat,ed this ti-mie under
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business leaders, including the heads of Goldman Sachs and. Thomson Reuters, advised lawmakers tha t passage was neede d &0 r t' ha. state to l!i11l;,,:1 ,~_, ain . ~JV.... ,,,,,,,.et ;;'tl" ve" ~_ Co m rem __ mp ~. ,_ ... a. 'L .'~~J mercials starring celebrities, athletes politicians, even Barbara Bush, daughter of'
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Aft.er the space shuttle

Mission uncertain
will, reverberate in Texas and beyond
[The:end of the programme
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resilient economy, 'but it worries about at brain d1711n Bob, Mit,chell . the president of' .. j .-,..~,,. .... .., the Bay Area Houston Bconomic Partnership r koms th U· P·I so., ,0· '0'-: ,0·· people will. k- JII,!!!;; .. los!€ their Jobs with the end of th!€ prot!i .,' .. , . " ,;:,~. . , - , ,0,·C·· ~..]I;:r;.,..
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,O:R nearly 5 O years the: Johnson, Space

Centre in Houston has dominated the city's cultural and economic life, Francie Newsom, a. teacher a.t the centre's museurn",reckons that astronauts in Houston are like movie stars in Los Angeles: a. normal p art of th e landscap e~They shop for groceries and take their children to baseball practice, In her previous career, as a ho rse trainer, she gave some of them riding le ssons, But the Space Centre ts also an economic anchor fen" the region, ,It employs more than 18';'00'0 people, and the statewide economic impact of Ii'A, SA spending l'n :20.09 was. nearly $3,billion ..It has he' ped

draw about :5,0 aerospace contractors to the region, luted 'by several 'billion dollars': worth of government contra .. cts, America's last space-shuttle launch, is scheduled fo:r Juilly g,tJh~ With the end of the programme, NASA, estimates that several thousand jobs will be IQ!s~ around the country between agency employees and contractors. B:ut the actual figure could be much higher, depending on spUIO've-r eff:e,cts an,d thie rns]po:ns,e from the privat,e se'lc~,o::r '][;"'~r-'~~~:r' .i~....... [·n·~:h ,~Il'I... AY~'m- Ip-·,I fo: ·,r·· .w.:..a.w.J!i,~, . t-·hi . m· o·
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'The job losses willil be' m,ost extensive in Texas and ~,nFlorida; home.of th,e :K,enne-dy' Spr,a,c,e 'CenmI!e a:nd 'C,a,pe- Ca,naverat I,he-y' wiU be Il?sp"e;,eia,lly :p"ainfuJ fo.:r Fio'rida~ wh!,ch h,ad a 10,.,,6% ltn,employm,ent rate last mo,nth,-a. grim figure mh,Blt neve-rtheless m,arlc.s. a mwo-ye'ar lliow~ Ho'uston h,as a. mo:re

rylh·. woui·ld pro 'baablv require A' _. . '~ .- mar ~'!ly' ... Amen'h ' cans n ernse 1ves to show more interest, Bn.. thusiasm for the programme is not what mt was, even i..th,€ cities that were OD'C!€overn run with astronauts.In April, for example, 1« '.. .., NASA announcer d th -t th . ,n.erpme" - At mat ne E' t· - - '. - .. :tantis and, DiscoV'lery shuttle s will reti re to NewYork.Florida and Virginia. Some people ~,n Houston suspected favourinsm. Wayne Hale, formerly the space-shuttle: ~ ,~. .. ,.. .- %,. ...' .'". nroeramme manazer at NASA· , took(, a blunter view on his blog; "Houston didn't get an orbiter becau se Hou ston didn 't dc"g.= _J. '_ serve it," he, wrote, explammg that ll}eopi € had become too, complacent, George Abbey, at former director of the Iohnson Space Centre and now' ,a spacepolicy expert at Houston's Rice:University; has similar worries" In a paper written, fun 20,09 he and Ne al Lane, a. colleague at Rice, argued that America's space programme v, ... colic W]l... .... h· suffered from y... . ~,o,~, with m uch broader economic consequences, such as, ,exp'ort controills on, aerospa1ce t'ie.chno,mogy ~.' I . . ... ... ,-.,..· . -. . . - 'h'., .. ,y ill ,e ,a.n, restrmctm,ons on visas £...,or,. 1,gh~ Sit, n-' 'I d. d sci,e'n~~sts a.nd engin:eers", T'h!ese are ~~:ihort= '. · .' glSlgh te.cd po ~.'.'. l.n an In,cre.atsm!_. y compet lCles hive worru,d" ""We d.o,n''t make a lot of pro~ du,cts in, t:his c.ountry any 'mo:re~:'" e warns~ h ~"I,he,on~,yarea where we'~v!e be{!n ab~,e 'to m ajntat~,n, a :~e'ad,e-rs,:hip! role rus run, te,chn,ology~'~!' NASA, says that th,e shuttles 'will b,e '·S"·U' "-"c·',IO!.,.o.d·~,·d· m...y''.'n· 'l,t::!!a·"··' p·'I',s·· ~o": r· 'w:··':.,. I·cd 11ff' th·- iO·'·SiCa· , u~.. J!1I,.: faU to rna te-rialils e" it fusn,ot just 'F~OIi ,a ,an d d Texas that win lose out, •
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th eir expe rtise w ill b"~jl.._,~, . .IIl ever lost for His group! is trying to help them find new work in the: region.If Houston can keep its aerosp ace engineers for a few' 'years; 'he hopes America may meanwhile ,0' at new . eet . . president 'who is moreinterested in space,
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C'onpting trade with worker aid
ARACK ORAMA is at late and reluctra Ide. As a sena-

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tor :h,e opposed many trade agreements negotiated by' George Bush+among them deals with Korea, Colombia and,

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for a time, Panama." As,president he has given his backing to th O~H~deal s, provided Korea did more' to,admit Am erican cars" Colombia made greater efforts to prevent the murder of 'union, a.. ctivists, and Panama tried harder to crack down on, tax cheats, Satisfied, on. those fronts, 'hie then insisted, that Congress should also reauthorise Trade Adjustment Assistan rlD 0' r T'A-· A-·' which provi des A': m eri ca n I " ~ ,_", '\.~"", workers who lose their lobs to foreign competition, with training, in,co me support and subsidised health insurance He appears to have, won that as, well, On Iune zsth the White House said it hada deal with, Max Baucus and Dave Camp, the Democratic and Republican chairmen 'Of the trade committees in the Senate and House respectivelg to bundle reauthorisation of TA,A :in.with the Korean deal, Mr Obama 'would then sub mit all three lP acts to Congress for rauficanon along with renewal of prefe'rent~al tariffs, for p,oor co'u'ntri,es" The d,ea] is ,tt fragile one" Rep'ublicans 'have been c]amouringto :ratify the trade pacts b,ot n,ot necess,arily' wilh T AA, a.ttac'he',d ..Seri,ous fraying h,as occurred of th e cons e:n,sus that trade libe rabsatio,n"s be:ne'fi.ts forthe ma.n'y should be coupled with, aid for the fe:w.,John Ken-n,e-dy ~ nI .. d TA"'"A In -t,0']I ~W'-": ··6 a-··s.' p"':~I-I' O'f·:' ·th·. _ '. - In· '. . - a -....... .. ~ t. . inanguIation, of global trad,e neg:otiatilon:s so that Uthos,e 'inj ured by' that competition sho'uld not 'be req,uir,ed to bear the :ful1brunt: of the- impaet.~" Eligi1bUit.y for l"AA. h,as been e.xpand= ed several timles,; by 2010 it went to
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nent of TA,A and a sicholar at th,e Pete:lson Institute~ notes th,att' key' R.epu'bc Ul· n· g ~'t,(" - II '- :,.,:. : - _~. 11'can~ ~n· l- -d ~ ,=,'~Mr... Camp :'~ ,.'s·upportod' III6 last expansion in 200'9" (Th,at' exp,a.nsioD, has ,~xpired'll n,d the, Ia.test: d,eal would, a .restore it) Mr C,amp still :supports [I'AA" but m,any of his fellow' RepulbIicans cons.id,e:r:it Just ,awaste of mo'ney., If' Repu'bliic.ans st.rip T AA from the d,ea~t Mr 'Obam,a m,ay albando,n the trade d,ea~.saltogether~ That: might destroy the prosp e ct. of any tr.ad,e ~ib,eralis alti.on d:uring his presid,ency., lBut m,any American s 'won;t cal're'~ Pew~ a po]lster~ ,fin ds that 44 % of them" a Pi I 'uIali.ty~thi nk trad,e a,greem,ent:s are bEld for A:merica th,e ,high,est l}eJtce'n tage in 13 years",
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Health and tong'evity

Long live the fat American

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leans were diabetic, according to a. study published on June zsth. Nevertheless, Americans are Iiving longer than ever ..10 2,007 the average Iife exp eetancy at birth was 78, yeers, This follows decades of progress, The question is whether obesiry

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masks wide local disparities, according to a. study published onjune isth and. written 'by researchers ar the University of wa.s'hington and Imperial College London ... Men th same as men in Pakistan and 15,~1 years behind men in, Fairfax, Virginia, Gaps between. America's counties have widened since the eatr]y' 1980,S" Most alarming, "02 counties, or 3-0% o those studied, saw a statistically signlficant decline in life expectancy for women from 20,0,0 to 2.0.07;, 251 countie s saw' a statisti can y significant decline for men, Am erica's advance s on the national level, meanwhile ~ have lagged behind th ose of other d e= veloped countries, A panel at the National Research Council
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in Holme s County, Mississippi, for examill 0 I f ... :,~ P illl!;,., h ave a li~~i,~VP- ecta n cy-' -if'' !Q! 5·,.,9'· y. _
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Starve that b east But for a marge con tingent of Repu b licans on Capito] 'Hin, the, fact is that a blanket 'OPM)<o.SUi on, to tax increases has b ecome a matter of gress votes to increase the federal debt ceiling, the, United States deep conviction .. Since the €!,llie'ction of Mr Obama, they believe may default on its debt, an eventuality 'with incalculable conse- not only that government has expanded beyond the consent of th ,e gove.rne d _UtaJiSO that CUtttii - *.:' ,.,,--,''',- _' + ' '. , . J,;i. In,gl~axe.SISth eon:'-·-1'1-'·:'·- .~ l ,~.]II . J -. .-, ,yred,auJileway 't!·0 quences for the 'world economy as Wl~U,as. America's. The very direness of this possibility has produced a certain in- roll it b ack, If taxes ale rais e d to re duce the deficit, 'won ~t:they souciance ..The smart money bets that it will not happen, Inves- merely fuel more spending in the future? After their mid-term tors are still buying America's debt, no doubt because they as= election victory and the failure of Mr Obama's stimulus spendsume that, for.al] the thea tre, fu ts politicians are not mad enough to ing to deliver the expected returns, Republicans feel they are on a j eopardise the full faith and credit of the; U nited States." When, 1ast roll-and that the debt-ceiling deadline gives themjust the lever week the debt negotiations between the Republicans and Ioe Bi- they need to Inaugurate an 'historic change of course. ce-presi den t coll ap sed rhe m ~rk et to O~l{-, en.th, at in i~'5 d en rh v~l'~ ,l ev 01' so .it s eems, But they should take care, Imagine lh ey go ill str~d,e" Now' fhat :Barack !O!bam,a h,ats taken, ,chal~gle, i~is sure y.o:n y then way entire'lli~, forcm,g Mr 0 barnet ,81n,d'his party' to a.ccept d,e,ep a m,att'er of tilme=th,e 'Ir,easury'S d,e.adU~ne:for av'e':rtin,g ,at defa.ul t is ,cuts in s,pending wmtho'ut :r.ai,sID.'ngtaxes at aU,,, Vo,f.ers mike low taxes .. B;ut s~nc,e thley' a.lliso'Uke aU,th,e state 'he,llip' th,at high ones b:uy~,h,'ey t Au,:gust :2nd[.='untii t'h,e'inevitable c.ompromise e:me-rges .. T'hat guess is p,oob,ably' co:rr!elct :mf Washington is not g:o'od at ma,y n,ot be quite atS grateful as the Re:pubHLicans expect.. For lexam'~ c.utting de.als wh,at is it: goodl for?' Why~ Mr O'bam,a and Jo:h~n J:de, t:he 'billu!f'=collar w'hiltes w:h,Q ,make 'up' 40% of'the eMecto:rate are Bo,e:hn,e.r~ spea'ker ,of th,e H'ouse of Rep.Iesentativl~:St 'hav'e am: last fed, 'up 'with Mr O'bama but arusowary of su,d,den ,chang,e an,d at~ the even platy,e:,d ,golf togeth,er~ And ,Mr B:oe,hn,er ,at d,ealm,akler par ,€X~ t,ached, to' e-ntfu'deme;nts. such, ,as Medicare ,and, SociaJ. Se,curit,y (pe'n'!cenenc€'~, :has said [Iep'eatedru,y that~ y,es~, the d,e:b1l!' ceiruin"g must b'e :si ons)i As H,enry' Olsen of th;f~ Am,e:ri,can, lEnte:rprise Institute , ··i·· ,I' ,'-' ~~ -R·' epu, dca.n - ., _ - , '... -I' Id e , ,,-·.1ff'h·'~'-; --11""--:· --b:l:~·.~-. Uel0re, rause,-·d '~a._b_el~, on, __-, ." 'b}I··, t.erms.. N-:·-I'o,n,e·,t·h, " "". "t WOU_'., b··, no. :t-,es, ]s grou,p ·h,··,- h"can,e :_d' ,power ,'.1ff" thi. e ',R,:'.,epu.- leans -..~..~:C: _ e_ess., I ,as . "··d:' W.Iong- to dismiss t'he fight over 'how' to ,do 'it a.s merle jp"Qsmuring,., ,o.n~,y ~o'd;efect w:h,e'n mh"e ,p,arty threa.te'n,e',d t'he w'emfa.re' :sta.~'le~ M:any'o.fth!en,ewe'rlR,e:pu'bUca.n'me:mbe'rso,fthe:Ho,us,ear,ez,e,a]ots In 'politics\~mo.:reo-v'e-r, th,e: ~'~how'~' mattler~ Rem,ember the can s,en.t th,ere 'by mhe t,ea.-p,atfty mo,v,erne'nt mn Nove'm,'ber"'s mid-te'rm R'e'p'ublicans.~ rag'f' 'w'hen, th,e' De'mocrats.~ th,en, in ch,ar.ge of both elec:d,ons,., 'flor th,em th~,s 'is, mu,e'h b,]igg,er t'h,an :PO,Uilics ,as usual. house:s" us.ed ,every mast trick to ""ram"" the c.ontrov,ersia] Affor,d,able He,allith C,are A,ct'throug'h 'Congress?'Now,thie Rep,ublic.an,s are T:his group,~ re;m,e:mber~ ;8e'es itself a~s, a,revom'utionary vangu,ard,. Th,ey:have ,com:e to Washin,gton to resume' Ro:nallid R,ea,gan,'s mfus- using the spectre of a debt: ,default moimpos!e their own ra,dilcaill vi~ s][o:nof ro:U~n,gback th'e state; th,e great c.ause 'w'hic:h th!e:y 'beHllE:V'e sion, of ho'w to n:~:f.o':r:m"America,befo.re having won control o:fthe to :h,alv,e'been 'betIatye,d by the m'ax in,c.re'as,es of th,e first 'Presid"en.t Senate.~ th,e 'Wh'ite H()u,se or eve'n~ m,any' wiU, say~the .arg'ument B'ush, an,d the big spe:ndfung of th1f: second~ Now' they are swo:rn to T1hat strikes SOID'e Americans ,as :n,othi'n_gless than blaA:kmait restore the true faith, and :ims Icentra~,cr.e,ed':: ever:raruse ta.xes,., n If the taUks fa.iI; m~win be,'beta.use th.is bree!d ofRlepubU,cansh,as
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to eli ch~~ al::Dl·· art I" an un ar'a ch u ,ID.d _' to I~,. -...._ ,;;;:~ 'M I" ~al 1~'''-,' te ., n D,C; this summer would be utterly bemused by the antics of its political class. But you do not need to be an alien, Even veteran observers of the nation's capita] are scratching their heads, On, the face of it" the most powerful country on the: planet, having only just reeovere d from a self-inflicted financialealamity of epic proportions, is marching towards another self-inflicte d financial cala m:ity of epic proportions" Unless Democrats and Repub l.tcans 1(; lose their differences on taxes and spending, and IConJt. ..

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the Repu ,_ .11 can m.an tra ..'In'·0·' n e 'W' t xes P eri '0-' ,d-pler· hap s 'no-+ even ~~. _~. '. bli ~-".. ' Just the removal of tax 'breaks (such as those, for oil and gas firms) and exemptions on, which the Democrats are now focusing, To non-partisans, the idea of taming the deficit by' spending cuts alone flies against both common sense and arithmetic, America's tax-take is not high either 'by international or its. own historical standards", One commission after another has advocat,ed mixing spending reductions and revenue increases. Without (he, latter, entitlement programmes win have to be eviscerated, even if" as.now looks possible, the defence budget takes a share of the, pain ..But the, Republicans will not budge from then dogma, whe're does this intransigence spring from? Part 'may be tactical, If a. default is really posslb e',~ on't the man :in the Oval Office w have to blink, first+and isn't itjust irresistible to inflict this humiliation on him? Part is pandering; a Gallup poll in, May' found that 70% of Republican voters do not want Congress to' raise the debt ceiling at all+and almost every Republican in Congress has signed the "pledge" of Grover Norquist's ferocious advocacy group, Americans for Tax Reform; to oppose allli tax Increases,
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Cantor, the House maiority leader, stalked out, Read
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Crime and politics In Meld(o

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e gover.n ment," says Alejandro M.artf~ a sportsgoods 'businessman who has advocated
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~ d QI'- "0',,'f hi 14· - -:-: r-ol d so,n f n.' '''10' "0' '. '8.' C--x' 11.mi,~ y~QI ·jlL victims have now found a leader in,Javier Sicilia (pictured), a. writer whose 24=y'e,atr~ old son was killed in March by thugs Ni I::XH::0 (]lFY linke d to drug gangs, Mr Sicilia led a "peace With a ye',81r to go o'n,til the,presldentla] election, voters are tirin,g' of the drug 'war caravan" of thousands to Mexico City and then to Ciudad Iuarez, the country's most °a.••,_lh~:"·I··aml-·'-.:lf·~,Oy-,_",S, fu,M. ·.I·~,~_lli.ol,d.',!e,s····,_ ',!I'S~I~' ~.un_r.t·.~.atvln_.,d._ •:,··_· aO.·-r··~sF".:e.:,·sl,_e,:~ . rop'.I,·r~.-, ,-~ .•. nor, Enrique Pefia Nieto, is almost certain , " ..'1- ,'-.t .", -,'.' .. HI ;II pu ..A·'" v_ to b Iefu ts presi den tial ,candi date and he wi 1ill VIO ,en,~C]I~y"no~... *h ,e-rgroup h as 'fi:_,lUle!Ul . I b-. :UIC fountains with blood-re-d, dye. On June ers have worried more about jobs than, need a dean handover on his horne turf crime, Since 2~O~]laverage income growth As Mr Pefia gains momentum, the PRI"S 23.r,d Mr Calderon held it televised meeting pier person has been below 1%, a year, one rivals are still struggling to 1aunch their with Mr Sicili a. an d relatives of the dead or disapp .•..ea ii;;\ ,,-vV~.· m'-- cit: : C, !l,r,: __ V'i~·· rsa Jt.-: eared ""'""Il;e, U';j,t' ask forgiveness '(-0·' f~ of th e lowest rate sin, the world ..W,h!er-eas campaigns, Mr Caldero n has unsu btly , -.' h ~.. he It e the drug war has raged mainly along the backed his finance minister, Ernesto Cor= not protecting ill'he ~II·£ 0'fC, the victims," ,--; cocaine trall, with two-thirds of 1m'Sstimate dero, for th e candidacy of his conservativ,€ said", "but not for having acted against the ed 40'tOO'O' killings occurring :in,just .3% of National Action Party (P,A,Nt But polls sug- criminals who are, killing them," the country's municipalities, economic gest that Mr Cordero is less popular than Yet Mr Sicili a's supp orters, at mixture of hardship has touched nearly everyone, both Santiago' Creel who lost: the: :20,05: leftists, liberation theologists and ordinary victims who are .i.' :ilasta, la, madr€"~ (have That is changing, For. the first time unP.A.N primary and Iosefina Vazq'uez Mota, "had it up to here"), are; still squabbling der Mr Calderon, security is now a greater a former educanon secretary The leftist over their -,,,_eru,r S, SUC_,_, _._wh ethe . ,_e concern for Mexicans than, the economy IDS., Party' of the Democratic Revolution '(P'R'D) ,-:""."",.,. d e,ma.n idasuch as...W,_ ,if _,=er the army should get off the streets at once or Thas is partly because 'GLlP is growing is torn between Marcelo Ebrard the modwithd .raw g.w. eraduallvJ~ IO-::ln~·Q eQf'-uJ11 ,C'"....n teesu .,;;,W, . . 11!J.. Q,W aJll. ...., . .. o .. ~,;:" again: last year it rose b,y .5,.-:5%'~ But: it is also erate mayor of Mexi,co, letty, and Andres because the violence caused by the crack- Manuel Lopez Obrador, a populist who sion would be a truth commission to determine exactly 'how' many lives the drug war down on gangs continues to spread .. last lost to Mr Calderon in 20,;06 but stili claims has taken and how (Many victims' famyear the government recorded more than to be Mexico's "legitimate president", five times as many mafia-linked murders Since Mr 16p"ez Obrador says he will run ilies doubt the government's claim that as in 20'07~A tally by ,R~forma, a newspafor a smaller party ]if 'he, moses the FIt]) most of the dead are criminals.l The, biggest obstacle to b etter security per, suggests that this year h,as been WOIse nomination, the pragmatic Mr Ebrard may ,. po···1]11· .. ··, ... , 18 co rr up non, 'M:', I-. 'B' usc,2ttytma ree.·· ucies _"."- .-, ... .. ' . '~'1'·,'k,stilt In March Mr Calderon's approval rat- choose to wait for a clear fWI in 2018", ings dipped. 'be]ow 5.0%, for th,e first ti:m,e., So far the ,oPP"osmmmon:ha.s'been I,e ul(:ta:_nt ons th,at cri:min.a.lligangs ma~{le political ,con'Th,e [!estless mood .of vot,ers comes as t:o. set lout ,its p,olicIes on crmmle. T~he P'RD has trlbutions mn i6-0 % of Mex.h:a'n catmpaignsj plen, In,g '~. ~.·.,'eJ<100 .·t., sa~,e gover,nor s Mexico be'gins 'its icountdown to .a :p:lies.i- ,B[void,ed t'h,e mOPljiC" e-rha.ps b"ec,ausie :pros,ep S- ,_.d'.' . In th' ,18' M ..~~,".. r.ace is !!'I'clea,rly b eyo,n,d ·wha.m'th e' law ,at uthod!enmial ,ele,ction n,ext s,u:m,me'l., The 'l.tlCe ,cutors s,ay som'e of "ms m!embers, 'in Michoa.th,e wUI unofficially be'gin. o.n Juilly 3rd, whe:n ,c,R'nstate w'e-.re'involve,d wit·h th,e mob'~L rises/" s,ays Luis Rubl~o~ h,ea.d of 'CID!,A c~ :-; ,th-:-]in... 1~a.lILd{,. ~~,t pre~'--;' a-::us J"e-w po-'l,··t· ", -_...~' -~,~~ iii,.... -,-::, (1 -:' at . ~ -, k~ .lIe· III 1.1Cli,allS three states. ,ele'ct n,ew' governo,rs~ The Instj~ r,he ".RI: has. focus,ed on the' e,oonom'y~Amid tutional Revolu.tiona:ry ]Part,y (pR.Il~which this '''failure of th'e entire' pllolitical,class~" to' hav'e b'e'en, h,a'uled. inh) ,court. "Unmilli 'we: rul ed, the .country :for 71, ylears 'until :20,00" is s:uggest a]te-:rn,atives,. say's Edgard 0 l8 us'ca-=' smart see in,g in,dictm,enms against alill p,ar= .'liia···· •. 'b'_.,e-.a.in'ning·:-' le:x._p,ected, to 'win aU of th,em" boosting :its g-ru,fua~ a. law professor at Mex:iico 'Cit.y"'sIT,AM, tru,e: '·,s··," S~.'il]jiy:-_,s: Mr 'Bu' Sc,'i'""~a '. ""~'hle b~---~- _ 0 f h opes of ,r~t,atking th e pIes~,d.en,c.y~ A (o'n= unmvers:i t·y; t'he ,p'ub lie m,ay consider radfuccd the end 'win stilillbe far awa~'~' vincmng 'victory in Mexico stame; th,e co'un- meatsures like le,galisrun,g Idrugs. I nteract1ve:, Exp,l,ore ma ps of iJ,ca,rte l te nit-cni eS traffi cki n-g ~ mryt,s most POIJ<ulliollS, would b e :partic.ulatr~.y' 'Citi'ze'ns'~ movem e:n.ts atre' steplpmn"g: :in ro'me's a ndJ hOllmudde.s at Economist~,romlmexdrugsl:ll val uabllie, to th,e P'RI" Th,e d,elll~trtjng goverU"ntU recently, Mexl,co,~'s ~~mmldo~e;nt vi ill ci
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which had interrupted posral service for three weeks was causing enough damage that the government should pass ·at maw' on June zeth to order employees back to work, Although Canada faces far greater economic threats than a work stoppage in a. shrinking Industry the postal strike offered .Mr .Harp er an irresisti b me opportunity 1-. 0' pick at favourable politicalfight, If sending at letter se ems quaint today; thee notion .0 f a po stal service pro fit a ble enough that its. 'workers would 'r~ a. strike sk seems quainter still, But even though Canadians post fewer letters than. they once did, state-owned Canada Post: has deftly' avoided obsolescence. The company has encouraged the growth of "direct" (iunk) mail, which now accounts ~or almost a. quarter of its reve nues, an d launche d its own online bill-payment service, It was profitable for 15 stra ight years up to .2;·0·0 9~, the latest year ann ua figure s are availa ble. In February Canada Post announced ~ t. needed to offer lower pensions and wages to new hires, citing falling mail volume s and revenues, Com .. plaining that: the company remained in the black, its workers' union launched a series of rolling stnkes n h cu The m_,u. j anO· }Iune rd 0, protest L~.e ~ . t' agement was unfazed, On juneiath it respon.ded by loc'king out 48,0,,00, empmoyees and cuttm'ng off plostal s,ervices entlrelliy: The wo,:rlt stoppage ·w.as Ice·rtatinly· inco:n:-' v'eni;ent for many Cana.dians, an.d. ~hreat= e'n,e:d 'C,anad,a Post"S fu.ture r.eV·ienUes. by fo:rcing' 'C'usto:me:rs to switch to 0 nlin·e b,iU. :p.aymle:nt But 'by th1e .g,overom·ent's -o,wn CatillIcul a.tion; it co st ,'he c,o-un try' C $'9':m.-)1m ($,9m-32'm) a. day-a p,~.tman·ce ~.n .a 'GDP of ~I A",(io - -·to. IU!",,= ·li. 1. lwil I .. C ,d'..,. .It. tr'!'l~!on ~..' t-hII~ d~,(ion U '~o.g~'n,. th.: 6 N"" n tic-nal Fast newsp.a.pe·:r r.a.n m·h e he·.a.d.Un,e ,u;C.~na.da 'Post Strik:!e: WiU. We Eve:n. :Notice?n ~I aJli.:1 cl"gn'!'fi:': c~'nli""O T'ho. iIf'·t"'1ndoff'-·;s m·~,ffin ;,l.. ;=->' 1 ..'~li' I.'~~· ·W.d~ poU.ticat The Co:ns,erva.~iv·e-s..~ who won a majo,rJity m. May' .aft,er fiv1e years of min.o,r·=· ity g-ov1ernm,en.t", 'have long bee·n ho,s,tHe to lm.ions~ In. contrast, the N'ew .Dem.o,crats (ND'P).; 'who cam.e seco'.n!d ru:n. t'h·e 'vote; a:re a lefUst p.a-rty close~.y tied ttllabouJ~ A s.h.ow·do,wn. 'bene;'fit,ed 'both. of them., It let. th,e :N.DP show' loyal~y to~ts· b,a.s.e .(ll'n!dflex its m,us·cmes as· the fl'ew officma.ill op,positi,on,. 'whm I,e· owing mhe Co,nservamives to. ~an,da aU 'b O,W on ·atfa:vo·urite· :p·u.·n,chi ng bag., T'h,e resulting' :poliltm.c:a~. th.e·atre went a(:~
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per, Canada's Conservative prime minister, is 52.,. and judged that a labour dispute

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terest in 'Ielemedia, Lord Ashcroft's many businesses in Belize--mcluding acs Holdings, the parent of B,elize· Bank, the: conntry's largest-make him a. giant figure in th.€! form.. er B;~ffitl'~h colo nv whi s ·h·· 350'" ·0'':00'" a I'" people and a GDI'P of $1.3:5 billion, Lord. Ashcroft's spokesman has said h.e had divested himself of all "economic in~ terest" in Telemedia 'by 20,,04; and that' the firm's main beneficia] owners were an emp loye e s' trust with. no. electe d staff re pr-esentation and the Hayward Charitable BeI ize 'Irust.a lUrks. and Caicos entity' 'whose trustees are unknown, (Telem,edia's records liste d. eight corp ora teo paren ts ~five of' which shared an address) But Mr B,BlfOW believed that Lord Ashcroft=whom he called a "determined, ruthless, ambitious enemy'v-stil] controlled Teleme dia ..Belize , Bank hadlent Telemedia $:22m, while 'Ielemedia owned bonds from Ben. firms, The prime minister first tried to renegenate the tax clauses with leJ,em,edia ..Whe'n those talks failed, he got the courts. to order the company t:.o make tax. payments, 'Ielemedia took l~eUze arbttration in London, to But the government r,ejecte d tha t arbitrator's. jurisdi ction ..and di.d not a PPI ear, and has not paid the $4DD default judgment granted to 'Ielemedia. Parliament then nationalised the company in :2'O'09~ Mr Boyce and B·C:]f3 Holdings filed it. suecessful ap peal, 'J .e expropriation W,(lS ,overturn,ed. for ·beln.:g· arbitrary, disp,:roportion at',e an d.lacking p,j[lop,er Icompden:sa.tion~ N,ow fut :isthe tU'rn of l\Ar B;arrow~hims,e:lf .atla:wye:r~ to d,efen,d the natio:naU.sa:tffi.on ..He , argues that the· rulin.g ,can'not be- :im·ple=· m,ented without at s'iep,arate e:nJorcement [Thecourts overturn it c>Qntroversial -0 rd-e.r~ H:e is a.pp e.at~ing to the Trinidad..nationalisati,o'D. base d Carib b ea:n. 'CO'urt of J ustID.(:elBebze~s :ESTOR VAS'QIUEZ, B;·e~izleTeillem,ed:ia~s fina~ app·eal Ico'urt A:nd, he plia.ns t!c ,gem a exe,C'utive ,ehJairman since 2.00;9,. ~rie·d n,e~ co,nstitution-friendly exp:ro.pr~atio·n to run his (:ountry"s dlomin.a.nt tie~eCOms. passed ~'in the shortest: possible tim.e firm as 'usual on.June 27th from nl~s head of~ lP ,ossibly' a.s earl y as ne·x~ welel~" fice: mn .Beli.ze ICi.ty~But o:n.e :mjle away:Dlean. Me.(ll'nwhH.'e, Icon,tro~. of Te· e:m,e,dbll r'eB o~7'ce~, llisostyU:n\g him se~f lex,ecutive Ich,aira mlRins 'up i:n the· air., Within .an h.our of the man; s,at mn a :ne·wly establ~shed rmvalli o'H1,ce ruling M'l' Vasquez m1eft the· offic,e" ,and ..Mr .. an.d to~,d.b'iemusedl ,em;ploye·es to. ~atk,en'D-0(- B,oyice .arrive,d. ,a'nd held a board :me,etji·ng d!ers. fllom, Mr 'Vasque.'z o:r :his. tea.m~ 'On.e Once it ende1d, howev,er~ lVb' ]BoY'c,e m,eft an,d pag'€; on th,e firm's we'bsile Hstedl Nk B"oy(:e Mr 'Vasque:z retur.ned~ When Mr B;oy'ce .as. .chi1ef; ,an other D,ame·d Mt'Vasqu1ez., we.nt back to the ·buildin.g late t'ha't nfugh.t;.a 'This icha.otilc episode ·be.gan. on. Ju:ne polh:e· guard stopped him from ,ente'ring;; 24th; when.18-eHz!t;:'·s Court: of AppeaJ. rullied With m.ont·hly b.iillllisoomi"n._g' d,u.e" iev-en that th.e 2,00'9 nati.onaHsat~.on. of Tel!em:edia the ·b.atnks ,are ta.king s:ides4 Most w·nm k!ee·p was uni(:onstUu·tmonaru.. ]n 20i'O·8 DI-ea:n. 'Bar~ se·nding- cllstome:rs' pa.ym,en.ts to. lvU Vasrow' became p'Jfume mfun~.steJj He· soo:n. re'- q uez's statte·=·:run [Teliem edia office,. ]S,ut Lot,d Ash,clrloffs :Belize· Bank. :pla-ns to 'put mnco,m-' vealed th.a.m thlE:govern.mlent 0·1' his prede-"d .. d ing paym,en.ts ,on hold insh~:a,d~ . I ce ssor~ S a... Musa..~ 'h d s]lgn,e. secret ,a.
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cordlng to. script, Onlune aoth the government presented a bin In 'Par lament that would impose a wage settlement even harsher than Canada Post's original proposal, 'The N'D']?' filibustered it for 5:.8 'hours" delayin .. the start of Parliament's summer g recess, Conservative MPS. said they had received supportive letters from angry constituents -presumably b,y e-mail, When the lawmakers could debate no. more, the 'Conservatives passed the billonjune .26th .. . ost of 'Canada Post's dejected emM ployees have now returned to their jObSL However, their respite from the Conserva'U' . I~ m _.y iIfl,ro,-:dV'I,;;.:!I o· sla _.' gh~. .. i 'a-:-'' ' ll:"V'!b',..... brief '.' n .' ~JJ.~ M· 'r H: '~I.'. u per has vowed to c lose th,€ budget deficit by 2,'015, and Canada Post might 'bring a windfall at auction, Selling it would also bolster Mr Harper's credentials on shrinking government, NDP MPS will..need to start saving their breath if they hope to stave off privatisation with a filibuster, •

"accommodation agreements" with Belize Ieleco:mmunmcammo:n.s." 'which later became Jelemedia. The deals limited competition and required the state to rna teo UPI the company's shorttall if it failed to, earn .tllS% re-

turn. on capital. In 2,00;0 holding companies controlle d by Michael Ashcroft, a member of Britain's Conservative Party and a, life peer who grew u:p in Belize, b ough t a con trolli ng in-

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Econo'mi·s,t'.C·Od/ b·togs/ba nYcUiil

One step ahead of the exec utioner
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'T'EKE one of

Naoto Kan defies both friends and enemies have, been held from the Liberal Demorae tl"' Pn y ('11"D' art_.:'-.' . .. rhi .._. 1-·· .~~y u ... .::.. ·;1,... W. ch P,foi!!!i·t-41' m . ·Wl. ra n ' japan fo:[' 55 years until 20'09 and 'is fixated with destroying Mr Kan, It 'has demanded that he quits before, Dol after, :it approves any hills+though Mr Kan would not be the ~I doubt 1m'Sincerity, onry one to '.:OU.";t its si s MI Kan's conditions put the bal] back in the LDP'S court, but not for long ...Confusinglliy~Ion.the: same day that he set the conditions for his retirement, the prime minisrer reshuffled his cabinet, He appointed a renegade I.D]? politician, Kazuyuki Hamada, to. handle internal affairs in parliament. With that move, Mr Kan managed to in= cense both the l.DI·P and his own party ch .-",'--".-"',b-::·--:·,-,,--·:·',---:--:· _J.ven sue. con fusion, some 0" servers, 1do. not discount the possibility thatMr Kan might make one tin.. lunge for redempa] tion, They say' that later this summer he might dissolve parliament and call a snap election, aiming to campaign on a pledge ~Il h' to. a ban.d nuciear power. 'H" migr It even ion ~e quit, it is. whispe-red) on.the anniversary of' the bombing- on Hiroshima on August 6th.~ w'he,n antj~nu,cle'·ar fee,Hngs rU'n hig·h.,. Qrn June 28th .MI' K·an Idid n.athing to 'dffispeill t'h!e: rumo·urs.~ telling D PJ politicians that ,en eI= gy 'p.a·Uc.y was lilli()e~yto h·e the m.ost impoI'= ta.nt issue in the next e~ectio.u~ "~ 1,:., Th ere wou_.· b po 1Itu:a_1 resonanc.es 'I."" ~.o rud ..e ___ :such .a g'lm'ble~ In e·aJJdy August ,2.00-.5 the t·he'n-p·r~:m·e ministe'I~ JU'ntchi~o Koizumm,
t'h.enationalgrid, up by opposition
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the irradiated dogs that have ,L'bee:n.left to fend for themselves irr the shadow of the Fukushim a. Dai-ichi nuclear power plant, Naoto Kan, the japanese prime minister, is giving th e impression that ·he·has gone feral. Why ielse but because of a.blind craving for power would he defy even his friends within the government who are begging him. to resign? Given that politics has been in. a state-of paralysis since the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident on March nth, it is a fair question, Both outside the ruling Democraric Party' of japan (o"'j) and withwith Mr Kan's lack of Iea .. dership that they' cannot see·any hope oflaws essential for recovery and reconstruction being passed until he steps down, Yet, either through luck or cunning, Mr Kan has managed to keep one step ahead of those 'baying for his blood ... e survived H a no _confidence moti on in parliament a month ago by' promising to. step down eventually Onjune 27th MOl'lean at last set the conditions that he said would enable him to r·esign,~ 'Th'e ,conditions 'were the passa,ge of thr·ee biH.s:::.a\!'2 trimUo,n($,2:5 billiun) s:u'ppi'e= mentary b'ud,get to· cope wilth. the dilsaste:r:; the :iSSUiance of bo.nds to :finiaTI.ce :2on~12 the b·ud.get d,efi,cit;. and an electri·cityiniti.aUve to 'broad e:n.the scop e of fe·ed -i n tariffs to e·n,cour,a.ge' moO'rie use, of re'n,ew.able ene:rgy in
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called a snap election to push through -110' It- -w-·:-;~'"" ,~ 'm'- O-V"'·.ol-·th .,~,'t , ..'o"!IE't,0.'1 .' '.' r' "1'[:r~' m·· c t" 'n . ti,j; tilt " ' ~. P·. ,,~, ~ 'p ,. nearly split ~he'ruling LD'JP but also gave Mr Koizumi a landslide victory In post-Fukushima japan, nuclear power would be a much more emotive issue, "It could 'be at 'bomb to destroy both th,f.' DP] and the .1,D'P/'· says 'Iakeshi Sasaki of G aku sh uin University in Tokyo, He speculates that, like Mr Koizumi, Mr Kan might attempt to surround himself with charismatic young politicians to be the face of the next government, Such. peop ,emight Include Goshi Hosono, Mr I{an's 39-y·e,ar-old MI Fix-it who this week was. appointed minister in charge of the: nu .. clear mess There are just as many reasons to doubt tha t such an ele ction wou~d. b e feasible, however, 'The;high command .of Mr Kan's party' would be staunchly' opposed, fear= ing the .nPJ would lose, Nor is it yet clear how firmly the public has swung against nuclear power since Ma.rch nth", After all, years of power shortages loom, What is more, no one in the disaster areas is in any mood for at national el ectio n ~A~mthey ask. is for parhament to provide funds. and lead the reconstruction, Mr Kan's biggest drawback is that, 'U:U= like Mr Kofzuml at the time, he is not pop111aI~ owever much the public dislikes the H mainstream parties; they do not like him either, A. pof ..published on Iune 2'9t'h by l~yo,do~a news wire) showed over twothirds of those surveyed wanted. him to step down immediately or by' the end. of August 'Jh·e e'~e',ction s(:e·nar.ilo u·w·on.tt h.ap~ pen.m .Mt'WOllld h,e a s'ui(:ide mission ..He's n.O 1(0izumi,:" s atys Ge:rald. 'Curtis of 'Colum.b ia Un!versitJl He ce:rt:ainly ~sn'Jt B:ut rega.rdless of whet'her Mr K,an caUs an elec.tio:n o:r :not., if t:he mati·n. parties c.annot fin·d comm.on. ground for d·e,aling w~.th th.e dis.aster~ th;€y still ne,@;,d a bom'b pu,t underth·em.,
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Hi'g h-speed 'rail in China,

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urban centres.. ,

HE.,heart of Chi~a'~snatio~aJ railway policy has been the pursun of speed, And having built the world's lon.. gest high-sp e ed network from scratch, this week the country proudly launched its showcase project, th,et31Blk.m. (S2o-mUle) Beijing-Shanghai line ..Running at speeds of over 300km an hour, the sleek electric train cuts the traveltime between China's two most important cities by nearly half, to, four hours and 48 minutes, The service is. designed as a rival to ai.r travel, Indeed, at-Beijing South station, the ultra-modem facility resembles an airport. The other terminus, meanwhile, actually is at Shanghai's domestic airport But that means travellers lose the benefit of a downtown arrival, often touted as an advantage of trains ..Bven on mtermediate stops". stations are far from
'Iravel time might have been shorter stili, but for controversy over the train's spee d.,Iourneys of J50km. an hour had been premised, Then a system-wide

and. foreign engineers .... now an offiBut cial at China's Railway' .R]ectrification Bureau admits the slowdown was based on concerns over safety after all. 'TIu:~ Beijing-Shanghai line took. only thre e years to bun d..With a price tag of $34 billion, it may never recoup its costs, Still, b etter connections could 'bring more productivity gains to China than in more developed countries ..Yingjln at Cambridge 'University says high-speed rail could foster development away from China's megacities, Meanwhile, for those who find the line's suburban statio ns inconvenient, Mr Ying says, people nee d o:nl:y be patient With urbanisation in China. roaring ahead, it. is only a matter of tlme before the cities pull 'up .at the stations, rather than the other 'way around,

slowdown to around 300km an hour was announced. At the time; thee government insisted this was ~'Osave energy 'It strenuously denied that safety WB.S a factor, despite concerns from Chinese

troversial plans to pass." The 'most contentious is at tax o:n.carbon

nority government in the lower house, after striking a deal with the Australian Greens and independents iOI support, The Greens will hold the balan ce of power in the new Senate, potentially offeri.ng Hi chance for SO'.m1e of the government's Icon= emisslons thatis designed to tackle climate change, Ms Gillard has promised that much of the revenue will compensate households for higher energy costs, A committee of Labor, Green and independent parliamentarians (the conservative '(:0= alition opp 0 siti on boyco tte d. it) is haggling coal-fired power stations, which. produce mo st of Australia' s electricity to day., The Greens sided with the coalition to defeat an earher anti-carbon measure under Mr Rudd, claiming it was too weak, This time, they are signalling their support,

over questions su. h as compensation for c

Public backing fo:r climate' action 'was once quite strong" But the political squabbling
has seen it

by the· Lowy Institute found 3'9'%of Australians unwilling to pay any extra electricity
costs to combat climate change, almost double the- num b,er three- years age, The Greens may choose to bank what they can" But Ms Gillard faces challenges from them over another tax, on profits. from iron ore and coal, Australia's, two biggest exports, This would raise' about A$4'O billion ($42 billion) over ten. years, a sum the Greens say is too easy on mining eompanies riding a resources boom. Ms Gillard wants both the, carbon and. minin .. taxes in g place 'bY'July' :20i12 .. Meanwhile, she: ID.S fend-

evaporate,

A poll on

June

27th

Australia ..s prim e minister r

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ing off attacks from all stde s~ ~.n eluding

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With. little more to lose, .ulia Gillard. battles on

1 THEN she defenestl~t;edcKevl~ Judd 'I VV to. become Australia s first woman

.Ms Gillard toplpllied h~m beion.~ h,e hat,d co:m·_· p ,et,€d h~.sfirst: te:rm~ IaitJng s,e,con,d prefe':re'nlce votes into a.ccount, Ms, G·nlard.·~sgo'v'= ermn.e·nt 'would fa.ce an eh~H::torai ·wip,eo:ut. Oln·e,e at p,o'p'uillar lPo·lliitical fi.g'ur'e; .Ms 'GElllard ha's ,s!een her dissatisia·cti.on rating so·ar from 29'% Just ,after s'h!e: tool{ Qv'er as jp,rim,e minister to 62%~For th.e first tIDme' lony Ab'bott~ th,e oplposmtio:n !e·adeT~ha.s :pip,p"e,d 'he-r as the· prefe·rred pIIi'm,8' m.m;nm.st'l~r ..Even 'more humniatjngly~. anothe·r :re·cent poll showed th,a.t twic~· as m.a.ny Austr.ali.arns wanted Mor Ru,dd b"act ,as Labor .P'arty lead.er a.s th.ose

prime minister, ju ia GHl.ardclaimed that "a ,g'oo"d government was losing its way", On the first anniversary of Ms Gillard's coup in late june, the words carne 'back to haunt her, She is strugglin .. to convince g Austra ians that she has what mt takes 1:0 rediscover any sense of directton, An opinion poll on june 24th, gave the government just 30% of 'first preference votes, a. worse: $:C()If than .MrRudd's when

from members of her own part~, over her plan to swap asylum-seekers arriving by beet tn, Austra ia with refugees from camps in MalaysID.a.~ In all cases, Ms Gillard's dismal piOUS refleet questions .. bout her political legitt maa

,c~Her ousting of Mr Rudd still rankles, especially i.n Queensland, his home state, She promised before the last electi on not

who s:u·PP'Q.rte,dMs Gin.ard~ .Ms 'Gillard. battmes .0,0 stoiticaUy,. sugg,est= ing that m:hjn.gs 'co'uld .getworse fOJ her gov'= lernm!e:nt b,efore th!ey .g,et b,'ette:r~ Sh.e has t.wo .more y·eaIS until t'h!e .ne.xt ·eill!e:cti.o:ns i due;; She is now counti.ng on. an.oth.er mH.e=

stone fun the poH.th:a.l ca],en·dar: July 4th .. Th.am. is w:h.e·n. the Senate;. ~:h.e· p!per h.ouse.~, u Iconven.es· 'wi~h ims· :niew poUticatl complex:~o,n~,o,m· th'~' .c~·,d· Q'm,OC~,o,ni l~,et A,,····ugu,e~ J!J, .. ., ~ ,1~, Q'r~,m ~1~ 1!J::1 e-' eTh··-··- '1-e-' c-'t~nin' - ·1-,~ft· M"" s- ·G·:l'~I·l·l!jJ'r"·dl-,g"liA1J:n-g- m'- -lil"
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to have increased votlers" d:ou·bts." Yet Ms. Gillard CBlnno,~ b,t! ,counted. ,out yet lab"or elde:rs have warned. that re= instaJling Mr Rudd; o:r y·et another leader~ wouilld be fon.~ HeI ne·goUati:n.,g sl<Uills ,are .one of Ms !Gililla-rd"s stre·ngths~ Since t:he ,e~,ecmio'n~the gove:rn .. ment h.ats st,e!er-e·,d n6 bills. thJ1'iougb pllrlta.me·nt... 'The heads of the N.atilon.amAustralia Banlk: au,d Westplac., tw,o .of AustIali.a;s ·bm.gg·e:st b!an~ks,:have s:u'P= ported th.e carb"o.n tax~ Ms GiU.ard.says ,she its Udete:rminedl to. pus.h ,on with. the, a.g'en.da ''',.Sh.e b.as litt'h~:l,eft to m.ose ~ •

to introduce a carbon tax" Her proposed deal with Malaysia." a country that: has not signed the United Nations refugee convention, flies in the face of Laber's pledge to take a 'mote humanltarian approach than its. opp onents towards asylum-seekers, Mr Abbott's gib es against her over taxe s se ern

Afghanist'an

Taj'ikista,n,

Rough riding
Gfr1IAZNI! AND KABUL

War of the beards
OiU$.HlAN B,E

I~ra~ t~~r:~~~~:~~:~~~~~ ~~~~:~~:=: mduding who
Iiame ntary ele ction last Septemb er, When TlH~! Economist arrived, all activity stopped, and at doddery highcourtjudge overseeing the recount, goaded on, 'by a media-conseious pclitician 'who had, lost: his seat, said nothing would happen until the sole medial representative left,

The country's ttic'ky polities get' ever trickier'

An outbreak <of pogonophobia in a Central Asian autocracy

a bunch of 15-ye'ar-ollids had bunked off school, gathered around plastic tables to empty out ballot boxes and recount votes cast during Afghanistan's par-

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are the: only people monitoring the, murky nationwide recount, which has, been shunned b,y electionmonitoring gJOU'pS and Western dip= lomats, In Ghazni election-day violence and rampant fraud led to many votes from Push tun, districts being either uncast or.disqualified, The: seats went to Hazaras, at picked-upon minority ..In the: warehouse everybody was Pushtun. The country's president, Hamid Karzai, :is himself a Pushtun, the biggest ethnic group, in Afghanistan, Unhappy with a.national resu t. w hieh saw his :p olitical opponents strengthened and his fellow Pushtuns. fall to at minority in parliament, Mr Karzai esta blishe d a special tri bunal to. investigate fraud and carry out recounts Reporting its results, the, trib una 1. says that a quarter of MPS should be stripped of the ir seats ..The ttl bunal has no credibility among election experts, The Independent EJe,ction Commission denounces it ,as unconstitutional. For months 'West.ern diplomats hoped that Mr Karzai 'would abandon it, But with relations between Mr I(a,:rza,i a:nd, the We·st ,gioing' th.rough an,otheI' rough, pah:h =thie: :p!]flf:sid,ent' :reoenmly lam= 'b,asted N'AT'O' fo[!ces ,as ""oocnpiers;'-th,e :ma.tter ,has co:m,e' to a head;; Mr :K,arzai's 01'fic,e; grcw'],s thai there s,:h:ou~d, no 'i~ioreign 'be i'nte'rfer,ence~'~'nthematt€n~., W.h.ether or no~, f th,e 'trru,'b'un,a~.\s, findings axe .aJJ;te,dupon~, parlia'me'nt" a mu.,ch, put-upon tnsftu~ion, willIl sttugg].e t:o guar,d th,e ~ast rem,ainm,ng shoo'ds of it:s, ,a:uthorilty~ T'he thre-at of y,et a~nothe r co:nstitution.al c.risis comes att a frau"ght: t],m,e~ ,Old dividing lin,es from th,e cfuvil~w,are·ra arle sta:rtin,g to reop!en~ Th,e co:n.cerns of many Afg_h.ans 'who are; not Pns"htuns, particularly thos,e in ~.'he no:rth of' th!e co:u'ntry~:have b,e;,en ,growing" an,d not jiust be,catuse, of Mr I(ar'z,am's attempt to 'massagie ~'he :parlialme'nm'~s ethnic mix~ Thi€Se Afgh,a.ns. ,aJso fear thl~ pilla<ll'niedwmthidrawal.of most 'NATO tfiOOpS
MP'S

Losing

by the end of ,20'14l~And they axe,a I armed by the president's efforts to open peace malcs with the (overwhelmingly Pushtun) IatUb,an~,A group of northern former warlords, including Abdul Rashid Dostum (an Uzbek) and Moh;am'ma,d Mohaqiq (a Hazara), both of' whom supported M:r Karzai d uring his presi dential bid in :2iO0 9; talk 'Of establishing a formal alliance agains t the president, 'To make matters worse, the government and its West.ern backers are at loggerheads over huge fraud am Kabu] Bank, the country's biggest, 'W ~th powerful political connections, The ,MMF ':1 ad declared itself unimpressed 'by proposals to' sort out the Now~v." AC: hi.o:l'n- istan ~ s tral-b ' '3ln--k- - g~'!o'm- ' ~ l1l."~' vemor has resigned and fled, to America, claiming his Mire 'was in danger after he tried to get an unwilling government to investigate and prosecute those involved in th e scandal, There are also heightened fears about th e country's securi ~~ygainst insurgent a ta tacks, Just as an initial seven provinces and cities were preparing for "transition" from international to Afghan security control at i·h.eend of June, one of I(-aburs promin,ent hotels was a.tta'cke,d on JW1,e 28mh by a squ,ad of miillIDtants carryin,g bo:m,'bs .and, h,eavy we,apo,ns~ Afgh,a.n police and c'om~ man,d,os sejzie:d control of' the h,otel atfte:r at blood:y smx-hour batt~,e (with help from N A,TO, ali:r strn~leS)" ut the, 'bra'zen assa:ult o:n, B the H'ot',em ]nt:,er-C,on~bl,enma.l has d,ealt ,8, h,ea:vy psychologictl blow. Bunt in hat'p:pffi.,ertim,es:" in the 1960'S" the hotel had been s!carre,d b,y rockets 2Uld fac= Uonalli fighting during Afgh.anfustan~s civTIll wa:r;;]t was n~furbished, afte·r 20'i01. as at sym~ b!o~of ho'pe in th,e future;, To slee th,e hUillm,op buildblg: lim'by r,ed tratlCeI buH,ets and rocked, by e_x.plosions 'was a. ha:iblnger of how' fatr Afghanistan m'ight faJlli if ffi ts jp,resm,de.nt; m.ts fElctiona11,ead,efs ,an,d th,e ,coun.try"'s ~ntern,a.tional bacl~!ers:nnsrn an,a"ge' the, cl()untry·;s. tricky poli tj,cs~ •
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women donning headscarves, how should you, a secular autocrat, deal with concerns that your people are pickmg 'up radical ideas from across the long, porous border with AfghanistQ'n? Not" presumably as President Emomali Rakhmon is do= ling; by driving' believers underground, Late ast year Mr Rakhmon's government stepped up OJ, campaign to close unregisters d m os qu e S; w hile making it almost: impossible for new mosques to register, even though government officials write the sermons. Then he, ordered thousands of students of [slam abroad to return home, without offering them an alternative once they arrived, This spring police took to harassing' bearded men on the stree ts, A professi onal footballer was t01d to shave or get off the team, Now children and teenagers are to be ban ned, from a ttending prayers, After sai ling through th e country's doc ile parliament in mid- june, at b ill "on parental responsibility" is waiting for Mr Rakhmon's signature, Critics say it will bile more restriclive than any rule S on religion seen during "A, years of Soviet rule, A, leading moderate cleric 'warns the law goes "against the will of God," Secularists defend the measure as neeessary to stOPI the spread of radical Islam, Their fears were boo ste d last August w he n '25 accused radicals broke out of a maximum-security prison fun Dushanbe the capital. A month later an ambush left at least 2:8 JBljik soldiers dead. Sporadic violence continues in, the eastern va IDIeys\j< though, th,e fighting may have m,or'e to do w~.th unsett~ed, scores from Tajikista.n'~sIC~,'VU war :in.1992-97!, 'whmc:h, mefm, tens of t:h,ou- .~'
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• san ds dead, The government, which says militants are crossing thei.aookm (87,o-milli.e) border with Afghanistan, routinely J.811s its opp 0l nen ts til nd the cover of. . ra',' dicalism ,..' .. This _ uV !(;,f '.-_ I .' 1, month ,R local EBC' reporter was detained and charged with membership of a banned Islamic organisation, Hizb-ut- 'Iahrir, The :B,B,C; says the allegations against th.'! reporter, Urunboy Usmonov are designed to silence a cri tic, Diploma ts. in Dushan be 'pre d i,c~· at rhe th r ~u. p,~~ '. ..'.: o JtI.!. counter ~- . . h a- sh cam lIt"l!CIJJ1Et n -w- rill r rove I., - . . _~~ . ~ pro )ductive, The mternationalCrisis Group, a Bruss els-based think-tank, s ays mtis hard to imagine a series of government measures "~W'hJiICh", taken together, would be better designed to provoke a,groundswell of out!;;;O ". _ " . _,~~,¥ ~ "!;;;O"

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face the da un titng ta sk of linking mh e m dire ctly to sp e cifie kil lings ~ This week's proceedings were only the start of th 18' legal skirmishing; substantiv'l€ hearmgs are not expected to. begin until September, Since all the accused are in ~. t h eir l' ate 7,08 or eany sos, evernlfconvi .convicte d ' ',: they ate 'unlikely' to serve very much of their senten ce-th a t: is, ass urning th ey' outlive the trial ~ Nonetheless, supporters of the court passionately believe: tha t th e trial marks a. profound moment :in modem Cambodian Khmer' Rouge tria Is history Pollio Pot himself died, in 19'9,8; so these four are the 'most senior members of the regim e left alive, It is therefore the only chance for the leaders to be held accountable for the mass-killings that 0 ccurre d. during nearly four. years of' Khmer Rouge rule, One human-rights activist, Theary PH fiiJ OM PEN !HI Seng, acknowledged outside the court on 'The second, and possfbly last, trial starts ami d controversy and acrimony June ,27th that its work amounted to "only selective an d symbolic justio€; ~',. There HE old and withered man, adorned in, manity and war crimes, committed while '_' wha t: looked like an oversize tea-co SYl he ran. 'Iuol Sleng, at notorious prison at a. 'were "extreme hmitations'' to. the process, sh e ~ d ~but ", the g.-a.-a'~Ishou 'lJl·. _. b, ~~, the h. ~chest '~d_-' . ,.~ and sunglasses, seemed an unlike' 'y massformer school i:n the middle of Phnom 'I _-" ~ .=, ' quality ofjustice within them, murderer when he appeared in court for Penh, the capital, to which 11;,000 of the leHowever; what makes this tria] espethe first time onlune 27th. That is. often the glme's victims were taken to be tortured - .' -h" --, -d way with people brought to. justice, long andkilled=only seven carne out alive, ciar 111Y' c argec is the ]1 -- _ ~' d geth a t theere Ie ltnOWJIle,", - - - . " after their alleged crimes were committed. This. time, four defendants are' on, trial .. may be no more, Future possible eases In this instance, th e: accused was Nuon AU nej ect the cha.rges ,at,gains.t th.lem, ,an,d alm have become mired in. the politics of the 'Cheat" se co:nd in s.e:nior.mty' only' to F'om p.a.~:as b,at one,~ I(hi,e~uSam p:han~ refu:s,e t.a. c.o=o:p er= c:O'urt; and Etn 'Cambio,dffi,an politics :m.ore a :for.mer mea"de r of the I{hme:r Rouge; ~he ate with t'h,e co'urt ,AU,were se:nior ,cadres ,g,en,er.aUy" The prime mi'nlster, Hun Sen~,rus Maoist movement respo,nsibh~: for th.e o.f the I{hm:er 'R,ougle~ Ieng' Sary was the re= clear that h,e w'ant's this tri.a'! mo be th,e ~.a,st d1eath.s of as m,any as 2m p,eop!~,eafter it gim,e'~sfo:reign minister;: h:is 'wife·; leng T,hi- Hie ,a.rgues that moOre 'prose,cutions could Sp,tu:m, civil war or;,slightly me·ss sp'u'[i,(ru:sly~ se-ized 'pow'ler in, 'Camb,o dli.a ru'n.191'.5 an d ,at- ri th~. s'erve d .as :5oci ad affairs min~ster;: a.nd that t'h,e'y might· u'n,delTIline h,ard-won eft,empt,ed to ~mple:m.en.t mts crazed notions Mr I(hleu, Samph,Bl'n W'aS the· ~orm,er he'a,d of Ut:op:iat. H,owever eoce-:ntric Mr Nuo:n, forts at re'coI1u:H.ia t ~ on~ Chea. looked. in court~ ,a.ge'and ca;ptm,vity Critics ,aIlege th.at: the- gov'e-rnme:nt h,ats h,a.ve :not s,ofte'ne·d his :resolliv,e,. H!e r,eult:,erior 'motiv,es~ Many' higi1=:r,ankin,g' pe.ar mained, d,efi,ant thtoughout" £Iefusin.g'to liepIe in g'ov'-ernmient an,d business h!ad, ties to ,cognis,e the legjtim,atcy· .of th,e: Icourt: ,and th!e: :I(hme'r Rouge.~w:h.ich mru,ght bile anothe:r w,aJkin,g o'ut after only at brief at t-en.dance., reason w':h:y t:he gov'e:rnmlent' h,as tried to limit th,e s.c op,e ,of th.e COUI es in'vesmigaHis. att~mrle;as. it turned, out; was well ch.o= ti,ons,,, Mr H'un Se:n h~mself 'w,as a. young sen'-the tu'q'ue to sta.ve' off' the chUI fJom, I(hm,e:r'Rouge mUitary command.er 'befo~e the a:ir-con,iditionru.ng; th,e d,art g~,asslesto sh.ade, him from th,e gmar,eof' th.e,Ughts.~ d efe cti'ng ID'n1977.· '~' '._ E~'t111..·,Q[' -w·--:-·--:a'\1 His ,day in COUI~' saw the, bl~gin'n~in:g'of ~.ll~" ',' "J' b"Qr U"'S,Q ~,'h ~OIUF rt ~s u hy: '.,' 'br,id, COmll'OS,e;,d of 'both foreign and C,am.the se,cond trial of t.he Extr,aordin,ary 'ba.d" - -_ I awyers", ,lJ. catnn.o- t , esca.p, e th-" - d' 0 , ,- "t "- _-- '-' , . ,][S _ . - -lan 'Cha:m,b"ers in th!€ ICourts. of Cambodia 0.0 gi.ve th,e trib'unaJ p][los!e;,cuting forme'r memme stic p oHtfucaill onnte_xt: and ,ex'ercise re,aJ biers. of th,e Khmer Rouge its fuJI ~i'd.e)~ The :in.dep,e:nd,enlce'. Such poU.t~cisation has led to ,m.any ruptu(les d'urru,ng t:he tr.ib,unaPs life: ~r]iamwillI surelliy b,e ,along' and, oontrov'ersiam one~ iOn,e prosecuto:r 'w'Orldng for th,e 'UN= and, ree.,ent'ly; ~',oresignati,ons", In A:prful the bat,ck,ed ,court ,caUs it ~h,e m,ost '"co,mplex''' 'benc:h lume,dl t:hat the next caSf',t. kn,Q!wn as 0,0'3" s.h.ou,d ~}e dlro:pp,ed a'ltog:,et'h,er~ But ,81n s'ince the Nu:rem,b"erg h,e,arings ~t the .e:n.d.of inte'In,ational ,p'[osiecutor la.ter Icomp,1 ain,ed mh.esecond, world 'war" 'Ibl 'fi-rs,~ tr~·a-.lw·~'·'hl'~,f"!hlrIo' ,f'!,~,d'l,~,s·-t y."'~"~r" that the: ju.dg'les h,atid :n,ot ev'en. questilon,ed the, snsp1e,cts", let ,81monev.isite"d the scenes of w,a.s c-ompa.ra.~i'vely· straightforwar,d~ The soi,e accus,e·d, K.a.in,g Gu,ek Eav, 'betm!er th'E: ,allege,d crimes~ For n,ow~ cas.e 0,02 p,ro= ]I{"'n·IOW~:ni a'C' U'D·'u WI,,·. -w~· c\o'ntn'·t,Q ~In- ,-d 'po I .,...'1,... ;;, ,dcelE:ds as :plan'n,e,d, eV'en if th,ere 'win, never ,e,d guUty' to. charges .of cIim'e:s against hu= Nu,on (hea wa,nts nothing' ,to do 'M,th it be a su!(:c'essor.,
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rage," Muhiddin Kabiri, chair of the Islamic Renaissance P,a;rty;says pressure on ]s.~ lam and on h is colleagues (his party's ,6, o-year-o d press secretary was. badly beaten i.n Pebruaryi is stoking a "revolutionary atmosphere", In parliament Mr KaL~ ~ h nm proposerd compromises over tie parental law: for instance, banning children and tee:nage rs from mosques during school hours, His proposals were ignored. Parents can hardly ignore provisions of rhe pending new' law It requires children to. have ,at "suttable name bl accordance with national values". 'Th,efear is that this. could be, used to 'ban the most' obviously Muslim names, The aw does not say who defines national values, but there are no prizes for guessing the final arbiter, _
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,,·t'-' sstate M-·:"·' N' 1,-' o a.~e.i' :_, r _uo,n. Chea sav that the __ - ~_.ea says ~ _a'l, _.=e Khmer'Rouge was only defending Cambodia, against foreign forces" An imperiallsti I(

United States and an, expansionist Viet= nam were the main culprits, in. his view, and ceused most of the bloodshed ..Lawyers for Mr Ieng Sary argue simply that he: hes already received at royal pardon.

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Why' China may worry about North Koreajust as much as America does

might collapse in chaos with a mass exodus of refugees into China. Any collapse would presumably be,followed by reunification of the: Korean peninsula under the prosperous, American-allied South, That could mea-n, American t[IOOM)S stationed in a. country bordering Chi na, complicating its stra tegy should, for example, it ever find ~tsielfin a. confrontation with America over 'Taiwan,., Un.II nw. I ,~ 1•: ·It" v,~ r .., W'II;;'.(i ~.I.•... ,aiV'II;;',· ,~I··,''';;' n'"lnU/", tho North's; . primitlve nuclear weapons have 'not-seemed : . to worry' China too much, After all, they do not threaten it; and if th e·-y- helo the regim survive they e;O;IV-~oa Chine p'urpose .. ""~".' ..[~ It'.. .' Last year's events may have changed the se calcu atlons ~'In South Korea Preside nt Lee face d crilticism lor not responding more' robustly to the attacks, Some have called for American battlefield nuclear weapons to be stationed there, alarming China, There is also the risk that any new provocation, or mishap, could quickly get lout of han d..In, mid -J une two South Korean man nes shot their rifle s at at civilian airliner 1andin g at In ch e on, the airP"O-It for Seoul, 'mistaking it for a North I{ore,a'n plane ..You ji thinks that the l{o:re,atn peninsula may have sup p lant ed 'Iaiwan as the potential W,Qt most worrying China, China's North Korea-watchers also fret that the next dynastic succession, from 'KimJong Il to the plump but callow Kim Iong Un, 'may' b,e more than the system ',-"'UCH reports have been heard before and smack of wishful can stand, leading to a militaryjunta or civil war .. ,-"',' ,thinking But there are more reasons than usual m-e); believe Chi= One form of Chinese pressure on North Korea is a renewed na's promises that itis trying to 'rein in its unruly; pugnacious little drive to help it reform the moribund, economy After Mr Kj_m'~s an,~North, Korea, South Korea's president, Lee ,Myung'~'b.a'kt. has most recent trip to China the North announced that Chma would said that China has promised not to side with North, Korea. if it help develop three special economic zones, In the past, similar st'ages further provocations towards the South. That would be ,at schemes have, come to nought, perhaps 'because the I{im regime 'big shift Last year China failed to condemn either the sinking b,y fears economic libera isation would m,alt€ the example of South North, Korea of a South Korean, naval vessel in March, or the shell- Korea look even more' appealing, and, lead to an implosion .. ingin November of a South Korean Island, Now Chinese scholars Another sort of Chinese pressure: is to C,'OBlX North Korea back an d officials ,do~ ndeed seem to. be sending strong signals to North to the six-party process that it ho sts for the two, Korea s, America, Japan and Russia to, discuss North Korean "denuclearisation", Korea that enough is,enough, In Iune Liang Guanglie, China's defence minister, told at rie:- China has proposed preliminary steps--starting with inter-Korean talks, followed 'by North, Korean- American dialogue, gional-security forum in Singapore that China. h,adl done much more in communicating with North Korea "than 'you, can imagThe first step, has so far proved out of reach because of South ine" ~ another conference, in Kuala Lumpur, Zhu Fe n,g:,~a profe s- Korea's demand for some sort of' apology for last year's outrages, At so r at Peking Univ'ersit.y, contradicted at North Korean parti cipant That might 'be finesse d 'by holding lower-l evel talks initially But 'who argued that the, security issue on the Korean peninsula was the big obstacles remain, and, Chma seems unable to overcome one of reunlfication and a. legacy of th.e cold, 'WatI.,]t was also a re- them ..America does not want to reward North, Korean bad be. '-1-1 t M, ,-. Z"hl' 11 sal." 0 ;f the une h ,.need.. n,a.,ure 0,f th e NJ' or " P'" -,.~ -,' I, :~,d . ,e; -1-,' , ",ange t I'--'~' . su, .··r . - . irth Di..Olean haviour; and nobody' believes it win ever fully abandon its nuclea ca ' feren ' anJIl regime andits behaviour, North I{ore a, he argued, "risks biting .w.""" .. 'r-'-... ,_1p.o'. '!lIb··, ilitv'J~ J:.'bl~, a recen n 'U-'-,('>1- ear ""'0- n Ii, .II!.""", ce in 'S~go-U· ~ '0-: :r·g:-; th e C,hin,ese b,and th.at fe ed;s, fut." ised by th,€; Asan Institute ,a_ think-tanlt, IG,ary' Sarnore, of China boas been, ieX8spemt,e,d with North, Kor,e.a b'efore', not Am,ermc.Ei"s Nation,al Se-c:U'Ii.ty Coun,c:H, mad"e cme,ar tha.t t'he U:nited Kor,ea~ least in 2,0'06; after its first tes.t of a nuclear we-ap on.~M'utuaJ suspi= Stamle:s ca:n nev'er accept a n'llcleaI=armed,Nort:h, c.ion an,d an.imosity go b,ack much furthe.r.., In,a r,ecent ,pape.r~, 'You Ji, ,(1 lo,rm,er IChin,esie fore'ign'~'m:inistry offi,ciall ,now' at t'he Univ'ersi= Su:per,po'werl{!!ss, ,·t'' 0, N' _ew " "OU,I~ " ,:" '1, I 'es; repor_s ,·th t- K': "immon,g, 'n ",_orluoreaK'·, . ~ In fact" A~m,e-ric,a 'w,iU, h.a.1v,e to resum,e dialogu,e' on'e day~ "·5' ..' '''''h "iva. ,. .. t- ,Ia._ - - JI 'NI *h _y ··f s Th,ere:is no ,omherway to 'work t,owa'rds at least ,c.apping North, Kore,31 s nuclear dic.tator~ n,ev'e'I'~orgave 'Chin,a, for its d:isapp:rovaJ of the h,ereditary -w,·..-~,o,'~"p' n' IU w~"-~hl'l~'c'h. 'n'mi .o'l,o,~t-,o,d n· 'I,. u-~,ii~,c.'p,o,ct~,d l~'tl 1'· p···]io'\~'~u-m·' ,~'bl'-y~ 0 'J'~ .,. ~ , 'U~ ~'u,cc-eC',s'l·,nnl tinl W",. 'h·"l· W,~ 'he, ~,o' K ,,_.. ~= fr'o,"'m' ' h~iC'£~t'hl!iE!I'r· ~- K'-'l·m" '. U I,- ~._ ...1h' ~~". ~ ,_"O!~"" ·,Veii:r '__ __ _~~ JJiall~_ ~, =u_~ ... ' '_ 1r'~ 'S',unlg' a· dl· . doln.g ims besmto ,€nh,anice·~ lBut maUts might be, furth,er ,deJ.ay,ed if the Sulking",he dld n,o:t V'~s~tChmna once frnm 198], t:o ,2'OOO'~ S~nce May la.st yeaf~ h,owever~ h,e' :ha.s 'b!e;,en three tim.es,., 'That is North flex,e sits m,'us,cle s with ,Bi third nu,c}iear t,est=,p erhaps even a s:ym,p1to,m of his regm~m,e:~s r,eat,er d,ep,en,dence' o:n, C'hina" which with a 'bo'm.b m,ade' n,om'from its d,w~ndUng stock of pluton ·','urnbu,t g (lecounts ~o.rfour-,fift:'hs of its trade and ,en,ergy' n,eeds,. and most of from highly' ,e,nrich:ed, uranium" for which last y,e,aI it admitte,d it the food aid itt g'le1lts t:o a.v'e.rt r,e,n,e'w'ed famin,e,., h,ad a programme", shocking the wormd,~Judging from its f1e,ce:nt sfug~ ~t t S; Ch"' -IOU .. T:hieIcoro1huy of grea.ter North Korean dependence ShOllilld 'be nat 'I· .. J ID,na s h· 'I·d-b·e ex:e:rung Wih~,a~,],n fl- u,enc,e 1'. ,can-o preve:n, t a ,gJe,atter Chin,e se inft uenee", 18:ut ~,nt'h,e past the: North I{oIean I!t;:= n,ew' test What: is reallliy frru,ghten.ing a.b"o:ut tb.e Kim family~how= ,gime has ,aJways ma'n,ag,ed t() fe:n.d ,o~lfunwe1 c:n,m,e'piressure 'by sl- ,ever, ~,sth,a.m :n,ot e"ven, mlghty' 'Chi:n,a, ,can teH, :~t :ha.m to d"o" w lentm.y:pmaying on two big Chin'ese stI'ab~:gic feaIs~ One :is th,at ,at spurne,dl North Korea. m~,ght:pro,volli{e So'ulth. [ore,a an,d Amermca., ~ ul)eaJLf~lg mlh the ~INlorth IlIColI'eaDilemma': (nina,'s Strate.gk Choires" by You J']., S,. trigge'ring a ,cy1cle of r,etaUation an,d even war. The s!f'(:ond is that rut R~j aJ ratna, Ii11 5th 00 l of Intern atf 0 n a l Studi'e!s, Wo riki ii19 P'aper .2 2'9, JUJle! 2011
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On. the surface, Wife goes '0'0'1 Beneath it, ·Libyans. nervously watch and wait:

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'O'URS after Colonel Muammar Qaddafi was. indicted by the; Intemationa] CriminalCourt ,at The Hague onj une zzth, a rebel group Cat Iingftself mh,€; Free Generation Movement furtively torched a blllboard in the heart o 'f" [Ttl '~;'p'O '1" '1L~bya'!i" b,tI..~,·capi tal" showing him Ern dress uniform" The impoverished residents of Souk al-Iuma,
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common than. before, Some brave residents are so keen to speak out that they accost strangers, asking if they are journalists. Some shopkeepers quietly insist on pressing gifts on foreigners or refuse pay= mentfor goiods "Thank{y":O·,IU·-. , Am1,g,f,'I",C'" '?1;'!!',~ln···"d,·' .. '" .. "",,,. "Obama good", say' others,
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of the revolution (eed, green Bind black), 'which the P"oUc!€then shoot, Th,e O'P1Positlon ls hampered by the b,mo,cka.g € of inter,-.~..ac'c'ess an, dt -..t.. '-'.- -,~,,;-- ~··Clhmes v.- .. -1'.'. '~'fa:~ t nest :lex,I ~messagllin .g. .ilities .. .lie· protest networks such as the Free Generation Movement still hope to. prepare the oxound for a post-Qaddafi transition .."~We have many allie S~, even in th e governl
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But they are taking their time, Sympathisers in 'Iri poli are generally lying' 1ow~ Some of them attack checkpoints or provocatively paint eats and dogs the colours

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one of Tripoli's rubbish-strewn suburbs, quietly cheered the news of the arrest war= rant ("I saw :it on at televfsion," whispers a delighted video-games salesman, "He's finished-game over, Qaddafi," Mayb e so, But his security serv ce is. stf ]. cracking down on Tripoli'srestive suburbs, Every 'night armed, checkpoints ensure that whole districts are locked down, Plainclothes 'policemen still go from house to house, taking away suspected rebels or their sympathisers, "Some never come back," says a yo,ung man who was detained for three days .. Fear stalks the capital, If you ask people
+

When thousands of' Tripoli people rosie up four months ago, inspired 'by rebels in Libya's eastern ,cit.y, Benghazi, and elsewhere, mn the Arab world, they were spurred into action by' the grinding poverty 'which many' Libyans still suffer and 'by the stark contrast of the dank suburbs with the shiny new skyscrapers in central Tripoli occupied 'by the oil-rich elite tied to the colonel, "But it is not just about money;' says a shopkeeper ..'~'Wealso want freedom

,a'bout polmmic:s,~ m'h.ey' te:nd to fie'e· into ~he c~ty~s illli-s~ockedshops a.nd 'un'p,Blv'ed aU.eys to, es(:ape the ey'e's. .of inform.e,rs.; UNeig'hbOlUS are ,always watchin:g', ", says a. resi= d,e:n1lt~,piillaying Mo'ud, ,music: to ,atvo.id b ,eiln,g ov,erh.eard", H'e turns it 'U:P ev'en illo'ud"er ,at nilgh,t to. drOW'n out the so,un,d Oof p,olh:e guns" "!Tbey' shoot: fo,r ho'urs/' he :Satys,. ,uOf= men 'we ,cannot sleep;;'~t ,Pictures of the ,col0,n,e~ ,and, ~he plai:n gJhle,enflag th,a.t symb"o lis.e'S his lule ar'e lliess

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ment," claims one of the group's leaders, 'who says he knows of ten other secret PJl10 test grot! ps, c [0' m 'a'"nti -O"":'I'a'"d' I d afi n ,0'0' 'IP"] h'. ~c c: left "n,..1·'.Id. yll/;; .. ~,dV~ ,'~I. .1li., '-:-:"0)1'1"'0'· afusa untaln p m. ',f, the N a.W; - M····.o'. ,u~ e ,0' ',n' y·.·'1I'O' ' ' O· km (62 miles) south-west of the capital ~where the rebels have tightened their grip and ha .-'. een tak.]log t '~".:.::-.'. ih.,asYafran .:' , (" :: '.-, .. ave b ",~ ra ~.--:towns, sue .~.,:-. ran.m t ra .. Y ~ h creasing 1 cIose to T..... I"t, With..~ the port of" . .mpo ""lIlt Misrata now' also securely in rebel hands (though. the colonel's forces still fire artillery into the mown)" the rebels are slowly advancing ..,ZUten ~.sunder attack. Though the oil-refinery tow-n, of Brega is still in the colonel's hands, ~t too is under pressure, Some vouths from 'Iripo I'~sav thev ':-~'~Hlli ......... yu , ", 1,.y yW., get weapons and military' training in the "'d": men re turn ..orne. "-'Th'-" te moun ..ams anc 4-'1,,,.,," '.' ·t·" ',"'.".- h "'· .. f' . '.. ". 'i}'1 .... , ... ," says '... '. t_ID.me I~O' ,g'h-*'h .ere w~.. CO.m,e,~ .... , o,ne~. H -. . a.e - .. - _e,,5, t T--'he 'N'I- fu··· - sa- re, b- . 1- 'h ave_. CU,I. t'', h'·e o~· pmpe line that su,p'plied 'Colonel Qad,dafi~s last workin:g refin,ery; i:n, Zaw],ya ..The:ir next taI= , ,get is G,hary.an; a 'tow,n farther f'ast whi,ch
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'would ill,etth,em block a t()ey supply :route to thie !eo lonel, fro,m Alge:ria~ 'Th,e (,ebe'llis arle · 'bb-t o .':os'e .1.S 1o-'-'ylng", .JlunlSUl S go,vernme,n .. 't·· cl' . ." ....t· . -- . - I .._ ..._.'," - .-- - d'--I ". 'I b_or"d' er.-an-.d cu,t 0ff'" ,anot.h ,.er.- ,con.) Uit H:'u'nldre'd.s of lorri,f's .arrive fr.,om Tu'nis~.a ev!e:ly daYt as 'w'ell as pITItVate ,ca:rs lad!en ..~
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..'with, scarce goods, The black-market price etrol "J 0-: m more than tho n£'_ ',. vlll 0' ,f' 'P,..... ~yl1J. s now ~l'c,!IJ. ~1" .~_ 'elC" ficia 1 ra te at petrol statio ns, 'where, drivers '-:-'7~'-" "t' ~,nmm e'·_·1, wa.m i , ong queuesi. ''''. ,C, UP,Q ..: wee k lor 1- 't· at Bicycles, once a rare sight, have suddenly become populer+and expensive, Traders are trying to bring in more of them from Tunisia. Though Tripoli is now under OJ, kind of siege, the government is still dug in, In Bab al- Azizi ya, the colonel' s fortified compound, buildings have been wrecked and bunkers punctured by' :NATO bombs ..Yem , the state machinery still functions ..visitors to the compound are carefully searched and bags x-rayed ..The lawns in the inner sanctum are freshly mown and watered .. The colonel, it is presumed, hides in many places, Some: say he sleeps in. schools and hospitals; knowing Ni\ "F'IO' will not attack them, Or perhaps he spends nights in bunkers deep below his compound, On June zrth N'A,'I'!O, destroyed a 'bus he ms said to. have used, Its charred chassis and a. singe d p- alm tree next to the cooone 's white-tiled but wrecked vil a were shown off to the foreign media, The state p ropagan da tries to stiffen the people's resolve to resist N"ATOI and defend their Brother Leader, Officials say they axe handing out: :L.2m guns. to let ordinary citizens "defend themselves", F,o.reign. correspon.den.ts 'we:re tnvlted to at ,conferen,c,e centre to. witness som'e so,o mi d.dle·-clas.s ·w'o:me·n, ,an.d children br,a.·ndls.h.in,g' t.heir ne'wly acq.'u.ir,ed we'al)o:ns~ After e·motlon,a.l sp,ee,ehes broa.,d,cast o'n tie e·vfsion.~ th,e w·,om.en, so,me 'with Giorgio Arm,anfu iC,aIn,'=' ouflage caps and. high h,eeills,,; took their Al{=47S mnt:o the ·car piaik an.d firedl th'em. into the: ,aIDI~ a~e securit.y· guarids joine dl iln .. M ""]- W'''JIlnt'' tn s"avo. 'my lll.oadl ,a'r. ,'"; s'alJ's a £e" ven* r _ : ,~L~ Jlh;,.·~ ',:r 14'-·ye.ar-om d,,-,:Fatti'm,a, Hass a.n; over th,e :n.om.s,e~ Such rituals ·ma.y be effe·ctive-Zfmon,g so,me sectors .of so,cie-ty. Th,e ~J.oor d,o n,ot, hI on the woe, seem to Iove the co.1one m ~BU.1It. I' in. mid.d~le-·class districts. .of 'Tri,'p olit tlhe m.ooO"d is mor'e :m~.x,ed4]'n Abu. S.8Jlim~a b'us~,'=' 1I1216'·ft n· .g's-·'('Ia-:r'Q-:l '(a'n"-'d s:-·~·tQo-,·f ,ut J' "!ll'l"]- w·· 'h- Q'r'e '.III.J' ·'U L-. u . ..... r~: .. li~j'cal p,r.is one:rs 'were 'kilh~:,din on.e .night in 19"9'6), many p eo:ple h:alvle 'b enefite d. from th e col() nem's rule .. "] own ,(1 ,comforta ble , :h.o'use alnd two, ears and it ~s safe to ~.e·av,e th,em on th,€ stre1et,.'; says at 216 -ye'a.r-oOld '0' ~an,' 1';" t1i"~ld, nw···: hat'm· . 0,' I~ d' ,,1iJ' w·:'. Pr~,vately O'wne,d s.hops m'n ,A'bu S,a,lim s,eI~ b.ad.ges :sho,wing C.oion:eI 'Qa.'d,dafi .in. .. .. .. v·arlQiUS. lheromc ,an-d. sym'pat h etu: po:s.es", m,,=, - .. clud~~ng n'file aion,g's.i.d e Sadd:am :Hussemn,. and play' son:gs with. governmient jin.gle-s viHfyi.ng th,e reb'e~s in. th,e ·east..."Save our dear Misrata,'" go'es one·.,Str~ets .and ,sh,ops in. th,e district ar.e festoo:n.e,d w~.th grle,en :t1~gs~ '''They are Ali Ba'b2J1s,"" says a re;sident of the· :re·bel s~~~Thie've tle;'rIo:r is.ts./; An 0t'he-r s, refe:rs~ocivml smrife ~nneigh'bouling' Alge'rllia in 1It'h.e 99'OS,. 'w'hen some 20!'0,.0'0!;0 civilians 1 Wl~re: kUle d,. nWa.r its n.ot fre1f:,dom,. ~", ': Bu' !a,v·,o nl 01 A' 'b':·u S ~lll.lll.,m''I p.sop'I· 'm"'- o·uIn''
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about infia.tio:n. Some food prices have leapt fivefold, Mid,dle-c lass people say th eir ch ildren, esp e dally, are suffering, "ThI lIO;;y . ~ '''.~~IF~·,d· y the S:.'O'I'-u·n· d of 'N.··A' T.'O! I ev're b-~:'-. bombs," says a father, Despite the relentMesspropaganda, morale is steadily being ero d:ed..Reports of defections suggest that , the regime is being whittled away The latestrenegades included nfootballers, "Fakeep prices down, the government has restncted cash w ithdrawals at banks to. about $,800'" Fear of instability' has kept money changers busy 'In darkened shops bundles of notes held together by rubber bands are stacked hip-hi gh against th e walls, RIch Libyans wheel suitcases (nU, of dinars, worth 40'%· ~.Iessthan they were before the unrest, to change them into dollars, at the: al-Mushir Souk, near Green Square, where the colonel used to rally his faithful, No more, There are few visible signs of a mass uprising In the offing, But there :is ,(I, sen eo. un d O'r the 'SUIC~~o th at Pi ,o;'IOP' - I ~II-O ~'~,~!~~, -w- raitin .g. ('0' ':r the regt m '. .o'n· d
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statue· of Br~tajn's. Ou,een _ Vic1lt:o'riaau,d ·wh.at used. to be th~ East 'Germ,a-n e·:mbassy~ sep'ia1.atilsts 'w'hoO' 'want the south'er.n slice of Ye:men. to secedle from. t'h.e o'nee d.o:mi:natn t: but now fatlte ring 'n o:rmh me,et :i:n d,Qiw:n'town Ad,e':n,; c.apital-untn two de'cad1es at,g,o~,o.fth,e- :in,dep,·endenm re-pubUc of SO'uth Yemen~ Sup.p:ressed untU re-Icently' as e·nem].!es of the state"l' they n.ow gather ope·n~~.promoting lh,eir p~,an to. I'evm,v,e soum:he:rn,:ind,ependen,ce·~ But t:heir' first ,aim is to organ~.s,e a. Idlefe:n,ce of t'h:e :port city' against: ·ma:raudiln.g gangs of Is~amists w'hn hav'e tak!f,'n. ,over sle:veralli, nearb,y' tOW.ns .and .a string of v.iH.ages=and against th.e nation= ,a] ,army' sun loyal to the cI,ea'king governmen" :in San.a'.a, th,e eatp.ital;, 'up no.rth~
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Ye':me-n~'s southerners have long felt treated as se con d-class citlzens. RuJ ed ]'n the distant past by the Portugue se, the Ottoman Turks and then, until 1967~by the British, Aden fell under the influence of the Soviet: Union as capital of South Yemen until, in 1990:j' it was united 'with North Yemen .. It has not been a. happy marriage. Many Adenis and other southerners say they detest President AU Abdullah Saleh.a no rtherner who until his rece nt flight to Saudi Arabia after being wounded, ran the ropily united country from Sana'a They say Mr Saleh has siphoned off the wealth from on in the south and. east and. rewarded 'his, northern friends with juicy' jobs, in government and business, "British colonialism was tam. e compared to. this new occupation,' s.ays. an Aden resident :~'n commo n refrain, "Its at brutal, tnbaland ignorant" But Mr Saleh's forced de p arturo has given, the re stive u sO.. itherners a ·fi;m ip When on June 24m~h, soldiers from the regular army fired. on. a. funeralprocession cum secessionist rally in Aden, they were fended off with. automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades fun. at battle that lasted hours. Whole districts of Aden have been fortified an d bed e eke d with flags of the old southern republic and with pertr.a~ts .of southe-rn v],ctrums of what ~.o,cals see· .atS :northern r,e:press~,on,. Monm'hs. .of natlonwm,d,e 'prot!ests ,and at q u~,ckenin,g: :mte of dl€fe c1t].ons from tht~ s,e;-' ,curUy fO-flces have Ioos,e:n;E',d th,e regime's :grip, fee'bliE: at 1It'h.ebe'st of times,.on m.u:ch. of ' the Ico'unlltry. IGreyin.g southern se-cession= ists r,ecalI sh,aring p,riso:n ceUs ID.nSanat'a, w~.th nO'Ithern re'b e~.s .a f the .Ho,uthi cla.n ,and w~th assorted Islliamists'i' 'Now' diss.id!en ts. of a.II s~Ii pes a.r,e filling th e s eculity va.cuum ~y ca.rv:in,,g OU~ their own fiefs .. , The pr ovin,c,e; of ,Aby.an~ n.o,rth-e·.8[st of A,dien,.has. bee·n under the· s.way .of th,e '!'~soIdie-rs ,of Sharia." sin,ce the :naHona.m army withdr1ew' 1It:o rural bases o'utside Ad,en in May! W~.thh.favy ·w·e:a.pons an.d a web, of :SU,PI)Oli; t~hisgIO:Up ,has put m·any ~o,c ais to High t an,d dec Iatre,d, an ''''Is.la.:m:ie em~ra ten i.n t'he deva.stated, towns. they now rll~n. o. T ,~,!.~~ JJL ' . ."~ mO'ul nnni g' ·pa.n: '1'''''' 'h.o:l'·r-: e_,'ha' d' IO'WY ci!1i··11l1s "h,a·v·~.o b"e,en pop:pI~'ng U.p, across, the sou~h.~ 'East of A,dien Ismamists eontroill 1It'h.etown of Zinj.i= baI~'w'hier1e a.t m!eatst 50 :pleople h!iv'!e 'been killed,:in ~he past few' ,days ..[f mh,e army fails , to r-e:S'u'me' ,controm, th,e Islamists co:u~.d.'pour into Ade'n ~.ts,el[ Thlo weeks a,go hundreds of such z:eal= ots 'br.iefty took. ,over Ha.wta. t'he c.ap ital of .'b'· l Ih·' ,.,., ne,a.r.ry . _at_l,,_eJ rovln.c.e~, idll·· . n.or, "'!f':'A"'d' ,"'. p " u,e ·,·t·h 0 __. en., on~,y to ,melt: away a day 01 so m,ater~Maslte-d .and 'be,ard,ed 'm'en now pa.tr-oI parts. of A,den'j's no:rthe·r.n su'burbs ..The· government says th.ey· 'carrie-,d out a catr'~·b"om attack o'n b an .atrmy'ou~post on Ju'ne 24th~.. Somie of t'h.esie g,rou.ps, h,avl~ties. toO r,adi= ."' - ill . - - - .. - - d' .. , - 1It -11- '. - . .- - - J -'.- s r-aJ- t,nlb-·~·at 1- ea: d ers - an:- mOle 1ge.nce- 0 ffi CIa 1-wh,o are v·ete.rans ,not on~,y of t·h·e war ...'
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, against th e Russians in Afghanistan but who also took part in whatthey deemed to be a j ihad against th e suppos e- dlv godless socialist south, in the war for unity i'n 1994" which m'he, north in effect won, But as rhe state unravels the allegiances of such people are likely to, prove fickle, The American administration has been, quick to accuse th ese, groups of being a front for al-Oaeda, thereby justifying the, use of drones to attack them, But most The United Arab Elmi'rates

southerners deny such links, Many of the: ',i " ib gunmen, t"h e.y say, are nomth em tm iesmen ' and, seminary students let: loose 'by Mr Saleh (and in his, absence by his friends) ~o persuade gul ible Western governments to go on 'backing the regime in Sana'a, They may sympathise with al-Qaeda, But 'it is, unclear that they have any direct attachlhe t ;lih merit tt L,,_" Wh atever ~~ '"_-rUI~, "~th e sou th IDS '.:0 "t J -, '" at dangerous mess where the writ of the governmen t in Sana'a now 'barely runs, ',,", "1'-' (' ,II-i"
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,QUR months ago some prominent citizens of the United Arab Emirates (U'A,E)

a petition to. the country's ru er, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zay'ed al-Nahyan, 'Couched, in elaborate terms of courtesy, it noted that the UAE:~Sconstitution calls for progress towards "a complete system of representati ve democracy", Perhaps, they suggested, his highness mighs consider turning the ,Fede:r~l National Council (PNC:), a legislative body with limited powers that is half appoi nte d and half chosen bya select college of vo ters, Into a real pariament ele cted by universa] suffrage, Good. news. soon followed, as government officials announced a,tenfold expansion; from. '7,0,,0,0 to nearly 80,,0,,0'0,; in the number of citizens who 'would be allowed mOo vote in elections for the !'N"C later this year, On Iune 27t.h, came yet more happy news, The minister tn charge of legisla tive a ffairs decl ared that: by ,2,019 all Emira U, citizen'S might have the right to 'vote" 'We're' these gracious responses to the petitioners' polite request? Not quite, The go'vernm.ent hats show,n nn' sign of chang~ ing ~he IFN c,' s toothIe ss m,and.at'e t,o h\dis,cuss'" legislation into anything bke law= m,aklng~ Miore to ,'he p,oint, several of m'h,e 133 original petitioners complafun of recemv]:ng ano'nymous d.'ea.th threats~ Fm,ve ,o.f them, in,eluding 'w!el1-1~:nown 'blogg'e'rs ,and a di.stingulsh,ed ec.ono:mics lecturer; have ~,a.nguish,ed ~n jail s:fn,(,e 'b,eing a.-rres.te',d 'in, early Ap;ril. Cha'rg,ed w],th mhre,ate·ning n,fJ.~jo'nal seeurity an,d ins:ulting' the u A1tS, rul~ ,ers~thiey m,ayfauce,fIv'e years behind b,ars,~A ,crow,d of go'vernm1e:n.t S'u,pporters. m,ob'bed a pre]im.in,ary' Icourt hearin,g in ,m,ID.d~Jun,e to he,cl~],e th,e'm as. ,Utraru.'tors'·!' ,an,d "~]'Iania'n, ,agents"', in what looked lliike a, stag.ed echo of similar taunts, fro,m !oy.aUst c-omme'ntamo:rs in t.'he loca.l p1ress", 'The UAE is by many standa.rds a 1(00m,en~ed pma.lce'~[ms citizens,~w'ho a:clcount for ~,essthan at fifth of the co'u'ntry's 8~2m, riesi~

ed think-tank that has been based for more th an" ~ decad In i Dubai 'O'O'I'~ of the UA'mi~;e:;, seven statelets, regretfully announced it was closing its. offices owing to the governrnent's unexplained failure' '1.0 renew an operating licence, Other academic and :re~ search bodies complain of increasingly in= trusive government s'crutruny, particularly of any activity relate d to. politi cal reform, A recent report 'by the N'flN 'Ybrk 'Ii,mes on an effort by Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed, Abu Dhabi's crown prince and the brother of its ruler, to create a. crack battalion made up of foreign mercenaries has worried, the reformers even more, An 80,0man contingent is. apparently to he trained in, among other things, crowd-control tactics against unarmed civili ans, Both, external and intema] factors are making the UAE authorities nervous, 'ThIE: most obvious is a general fear that even the UAE may 'be infected by the Arab spring, as democracy movements have tOP:P ed .or undermine d. the re gji on' s repu blics, setting off mild rumblings in such neighbouring monarchies as 'Oman. and Saudi Arabia, The u A,B'~Srulers are also anxious about II ,. ] ran, w,'h' rcn occupies rwo sma ~"II""'I" an dsi h ies t IS _S in the Gulf that are claimed by the emira tcs ~ The Islamic Republic is widely seen by' '1 'ilk ,. S unm ,. nuers as a subversrve Sh" power, Srna capable of sowing troubles; for ins ance in nearby Bfihrat~n"where the Shia majority has been harshly suppressed, [The VAlE sent some son police, to bolster Bahrain's Sunni ruling family,
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Created in 1971 as a. federation; the UAE is run under a gentlemanly power-sharing arrangement between the seven ruling' fami lies, Abu D habi, by far the biggest emirate and the richest in .011,s,dominant. i ]t houses the federal capital, and its emir m,s the UAE('S head of state, Yet until recently the commercial vigour and spectacular pOp' ulati ation growtl hit' Du b,ai, 'W'hichhasl it~ ,ot ,.ric as, t~,eoil '0 f ~ts 'Own, t'end!e:,dl t:o lbaJanc,e this d,en~s" are' among t'h:e worldl'g, most 'p,81m= c]out D'u,b,ai~'ssucoess ,a.lso broug'ht' ca,chet pere,d .. They e:nj'oy cradle~toF,gt,ave w'elfar'e~ to futs mo!del of freewh:eeH,ng ec.ono:m:ic.s and an ope:n so,ciemy~ illav:ished, by the oil='r.ilch s~ate and t':h,e ad= H.it tw',a. years .ago 'by a:n, em'batrr.assing van.ta,g,es .of 'whlat has ill n"g:been th,e, 'G'uillf's 0 d,eb,m ,cr~.si,s,~ D'u'b,ai"s ruIDing M,aktoum (ami ly most o:pen an,d t:ollierant wa.y of life~ No wondier m,any Emmratis. mh:i:nk 'it ,churU:sh, to 'w,a.s~oIced to plead for :he]"p ft,om the rela'"', d,emand, su,ch things as fu]~ p1oilliti.c,d, rights t~·.,-·-, ,-, ,-' ',~- 'N' a ' ,y.a.ns 0if' " 'b"",1U, Dh"" a ~,v,e~~"" , ,- 't'--, , -'h""=:"-I-'" y co'nserva lve - A" ,-,m... ,BIn!dft ",e,e sp ,€!eClE:,~~ hi" whos.e oil we,alth ha.s so,are,dl ,on thie B;ut eq.'u,ally, :man'y are ll)erplexe"d 'by 'back, oOf hi,g'h world pr~.c,e;s" ThiE gloa.tin:g w,ha,t ,app"ears to h"e a, m,ountil'ng c,ampaign tone of so:m,e of th e ~~n.te r.natilo naJ. pire:ss ,agains.t e'v'en mild dissent C,ons'] d,er~for inc'ove:rage 'Of t:he:ir distress also came as a stan,ce~th,e fate' of tw,o .of the country"s oldshock ..This has sp'urred many .of mhe emir,es,t Ic1ivU=s,ociety institutions" th,e t,ea.ch,ers' at'es~royaru.s to take a, hard,er 'poHtica~. lin!e' and to heed th,e ,critfu,cism, long whisp,e:red and, Mawyers' asso,ciaHons~ O',n A.p:rilli 6th :' ',_, u D'h' ~'h'~ In, A"',b' ~ ,_au!.,.,~, _,2h-n UIb' S o,pe.nness~, par ",aJ.l they is'sued ,ajoQin.t statement app,ealing for greater d,emo,cra.cy., Wimhi:n a m,onth the ticula'f Y' t'o at 'huge infl'ux of for,emgn 'wor:k.government had, ,disso~.ved lbomh oIg.an~sa- e:rs,~ e:nda.nge,:rs its, se C'ulit~ Yem:the ,op'entions' el€N:m'!ed b'O"atlld:s :and, re'p,illa.ced m'he:m ness 'w,as ,a1so t,o idieas~ 'includin,g pol:itic,aJ wi th :start,e .a.:pplointe',es" In Jun,e t'he, IGu~f 'Re- on,es~]n th,e ion,g,er ru'nt..at Ia.ck of t'hose 'may 'tiO b"' ;lih-I-,,GIl ~iuoi',GII'r t":h"-,'[o.''l:!i,'t- • se'atr'ch ICe':ntre, at re'sp,e,eted, priv,ately' fund~
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The rise of Julius Malema

again, ~:o detriment of hi.speople the

Robert Mu.gabe! 'is being favoured once
HE Kimberley Process (KP) is in, danger

HAR.ARE

Tof collapse.

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America, the European Union, Canada

Set up in ,20,03) the system is supposed to end the trade in "blood diamends" which illicit y finance civil wars" But Irs Congolese chairman has unilateralIy decided to let sales from Zimb,abw',ets disputed Marange diamond fields resume .. and Israel are hotly contesting the: move .. Rub n,gs by' the .4,:9~'mem b e:r b10 dly; repre senting 7:5 diamond-producing and -trading countries, axe supposed t.o'be, unanimous.

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Ever since diamonds were 'first discove red in at so,o co-hectare si te in Marange in eastern Zimbabwe in 2o,Q,6"J eports of kinr
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smugghng and political skukluggery have 'been rife, The stakes are enormous. Tendai Biti, Zimbabwe's finance minister, has described the field as "the biggestfind of alluvial diamonds m'n the history of mankind", Potential revenue has been, estimated at $1 billion-a billion a year, One mining expert inth '1" -.'" mvolve d m tne area, reckons ~.t IDS.'mucr'h
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'E,USED' to be dismissed as an ignorant buffoon, whose populistranting usefully filled newspaper column inches on a dull day" But now followinglulius Malema's triumphant re-election, unopposed as leader of the powerful 'Youth League of the, ruling African National Congress (ANC).~ South, Africans are beginning to. wonder whetherthey have 'not spawned a "dictator-in-waiting", as Helen Zille, leader of the Democratic Alliance, the main opposition party, has dubbed him, Despite his famed '''G;~-'adismally ID,O'wrade-for his woodwork exam in his g school-leaving matriculation, Mr Malerna is no fool He has proved himself a. master at politics and at tap p'ing 'into the, anger of' his young black audten ces, More than half of black youths under 25 are officially unemployed; the real 'figure, is much higher, Two-thirds leave school without any qualification s, ,M:O'st live in, poor black townships or shanty towns,

much more", The IMP put Zimbabwe's en'U'I@'GOP' last 'year at $7~5 bil ion, Following the announcement .of the find by aLondon-registered cempany; Afri-

can Consolidated Resources (A'e'It), tens of thousands of locals and foreigners rushed to the area to try' their luck, Diamonds

m,an-rights violati,ons, t~h,e, KP' i'm:po;s,e,d, a 'b,a;n on aU, fu'rther s,a.mes. of Ma.range dia:-' :m,onds~ ]S,ut p[.o,duc.Uon,~! .ma.inlliy by two So;uth African ~IlU,tfits joint: ve'ntures wm,mh in th,e Zim'ba'bwiean go;ve'rnme'n,t~ conUnue"d .. By'Ju'ne llias,t year 4,.16m ,carats", wo:rth $\1.7b,il~:=' Iio:n='money' t.he cash'=stra.:pp,ed gov'e-rn:=' m'E:nt sore:illy ,n1e,e,de:d-h.ad 'bee,n stolckpile'd'! A m,ont'h, llia.te.I~ foUowing' ,a re,po:rt lby Irp '~s :monit,or; Abbey Ch~ltanle; a South African;, claiming t'h.a.m Zimb,abwe w,a,s :n,Qw' fuUy complying with 'KP :rulesr..two small s,ale's of Mar.ange dt81mo'nds we:re' p,ermitte"d" th,ough 'no :m,Of'e since th,en" On Jun,€ 24th, h,owev,er" a.~the, e'n!d of a f~Jur~day rep me,eting'i,n 'Congo, the- 'body'!'s

were being scooped 1l,P by' the handful, President Robert Mugabe's ruling ,ZanU-PlF party quickly moved to claim, the fie] ds as its own, cancelling AC:R~S prospecting rights and sending fn the army to oust the panners and local inhabitants and to seal off' the area, At least 20'0! people were killed, many of them by' bullets fired from army helicopters, Some evicted civilians were then forced back by soldiers to mine the diamonds for a pittance .. In the face of growing reports of hu-

Ma,lligncl'nt: Ma1lem,a

ineligible fur state welfare ..Seventeen years after the AN-'C came to power pro= mising abetter life for all, many can look forward only to a 'career of crime and drugs or to early death through AI.DS~ How good, then to b,etold by Mr Malema that they are in no way to blame for their plight Scapegoats are athand; the new greedy black elite with their handsin the public till.lazy self-seeking politicians, butmost of all selfish whites-- the 9%,of the population who, thanks to the imperialist racist exploitation of blacks over the past 35,0 years, stil] have most of the country's land, 'wealth and top j obs, Despite' his fault y' English, the paunchy; shaven-headed 30-ye'ar-'o~d, is a brilllanr orator" He cracks outrageous jokes, breaks tab 0 os, sings the old strugg'lf' songs (including the one about "kill the Boer")~and. te Ils his audiences what' they want to hear, And they lap it up .. White s, he tells them, 'have "stol en" from the blacks and, must give it all backwithout compensation, ("'Why should l pay for what Iown'?" White farms must be seized, Zimb,tilbw'e-style" mines and banks. natio nalise d. I:~' no ~ is onger a question of whether but how this will happen he says", despite the, ANC,';'S r,€peated if unconvincing assurances that this is "not government policy", Young'JuJu, as he is familiarly known, has the wind lin his sails, His ego is huge, He is tough, clever an d has a disarming cheeky grin, Among his heroes, he counts - coner vmga - ba' -i 11 Z" zamoar b'we 'S R b rt M ' b 12', c-',-U_-' a. s F'd e'JJ, Castro andLibya's Muaramar Qaddafi, President jacob Zuma 'might: once have been included in his list but is now the unnamed butt of much. of Mr Malema's stinging criticism about a. lack of leadership ..Many believe he is now preparing to topple the 'very man he helped make king, Thev may' be forgetting that tbe wily Mr Zuma can b,e ruthless too,
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'chairman" Ma1thie'u, Yamba~ ann,oun!ced mh,atth,e two Zimbab;weao-SQumh ,African jioinm v'e-nmurles; Mba.,da D:iam,on,ds ,and, Marange, R,esources~ ,could, resum,€ dfam,ond s,aJes" N"G'OS, who :ha.v,e;,contin,'u,ed, to m'o-nitor th,e ditspute,d fi,eld.s, are aghast They s·ay that h'um,all=righ.ts, a,buses", s,m'uggHng an,d,oth'e:rblatant br,eaches ofK,"~sruru,es are stiU, ,go~n,g,O'n; with most of th,e p'I'oc,e!eds go~,ng inm'O,the p!,oclcets .of a:rmy ru,eade'rsand Zan,'U'~'P]FbigWID,,gS~ r B,.iti says the Treasury M has see'n ba-rel'Y a. ,cent, 'West.ern :mem,be:rs of th1e ItP insist tha.t: Mr 'Y£t'mb,a~s a.nn,oun,c!ement~ no,t h,av~,'ng

b!een ap'p'fov!ed 'by' the re'q'uired, ,consen.sus,~ is m.valid~ I.hey~ hJgether with th,e World Dmamondl 'Co'unc.n;" arle ,asl~~.n,gnt:ernatmoni ,a.lli di..amon,d tra.,de'fs n,ot t.o. tou,ch Maran,ge' dm.amon,ds", B;ut the'y m,81Y D'Om: b,e ,a.b],€!, t,n ste'm the floo,d, o,fUUcit _ge'ms. p"ouring' out of Z':l'm--;~'~b:c:w-" ~'In bL_~, 'iP:n-la,~p-,C"p-rc:I~,d 'u-,-pc., I"n- B"'!3lhl r--,'l'1'n'- ~ - , U!I;.A. _ ...... L-' tu China, lndia, au,d lle'bano,n; ,amon,g om'hers,., Man:y poor Ico'un.tries h,avle long r.e.gar,de,d the KP as a plot by Weste':rn, countries to' ,controill th,e ,dmamond tra,de-and t'he':reby prj,ces;; 'Thls ,co'uld sound :imsd,eath knelland :h,elp Mr Mugabe :kee'p h.ims!e~.f a.nd :his lP art,y ,atfio,at
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lfo'r da:i~y analysis and debate (rn Europe" vmsrut Econo'mi's,t'.c:'orn./ eu'ro p,e

'reece's a,gany

What have we becomet

faction this week at the uncovering of a huge rna tch-fixing scam in, Greek football,

Two club chairmen were, among those ,81'['= rested as police said they had amassed a 90,~Oi o-page dossier on the affair and were 0

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b ..'1 ,x m,a.J1~ers;; ["II,.,; ,e-re ,'.... ....re,.Ol, ._In=·.~.:ehe _ IS ,31 dt ··-:to Iii k be .-. . _.0"0 .., ,~I .., -, I AfHIt:NIS tween 'what is happening In football and Some Greeks are ,an:gry about their paralysed, corrupt c:'O'tm,try., Others just want broader G' -rOo. [- so'cietv" . said .rav .os Vo.oo·au er c s ..•..~'y;. sai Pavlos {,~ . the good times to come bacl{, lano s the, CU'I ture and sport minister, rd G" '1 as . ,I If o:nmy Greece's broader woes were as 'HEY had been warned. As~ Greece's mg t hiat '0.--; mary I_r-e'ecs~ we 11as t h e polineal elite, 'had wasted, the loans and sub"300 1egislators deb at te d, and fin all y ap easy to put 'right As parliamentarians bicksidies that rained d,oWTI, on the country: proved, an internatio nally backed finanered and police battled demonstrators outa cial-rescue plan with marry clear down- ~'~Wete itup together,") side, rolling power cuts Wiele imposed sides-It will ptle pain onto hapless firms across the country because of a two-weekDire as these warnings sounded, this ]lld'- . ·t·, "'k'" iy ....11.. at tne 'lin! ane p .. ,.., om stru e 'b" worxers ar th ,rUb.~I~.., rower and citizens who already pay taxes, fOI in= week, the country still seemed finely balCorporation, whose powerful and privianced between those ready to embrace stance, and so subsidise those who do change and those who apparen tly dtea d m.t leged uni on is high o:n, many pe ople's Ust not : some dl·ire pronouncements .' on m-'he possib le onsequ en ~,e O'I"f-: saying "n o" ·t'IO· so much that they might 'bring- ~h,eentire >," =:'. ,:..., ,:'.,.!} of impedim ents to sensible chan ge~'I! Also ho US,e.~ dow ·'n·· rather tho I~n-: risk .. ani',· dam ."'l1'OI~ affecte d b,y a strike, timed to coincide with · Y··,!at, ~r .. a·· the world were ringing in, their ears .. to their own interests, Alexis, Papahelas, ,A, group of 18 Greek economists (mostly the debate on the so-called medium-term 1-editor ~f' .. -,- ..,--· ithth from th nration aca d em diaspora in 'e_ :m I~,OI0 ' TTntrrU,m,enl1l G····,·.-···-· ..··-,·-·,'-·· s newsp;-- .. a.,p'er. rescue p Ian a.gre'e'od on wrt t e European :"1"( ,!o., , ree oe ..- -'., d h flight from, the cronyism and disorder that of record, has coined the term, "coalition of' 'U· ~ ano th .e IMP; were sch 00,'1- an d , os rmon s -: of the' unwilling" to, describe the array of ul- pi tals F~-Igh ts we.•,1re di srup Ii ed'': ._ 0-Y... a:' '_".,_st op page: ..,' ~"I IOd ,'> _.,' .. _: ,:_,:.:_ ..:. ._" •. ,. :·."l,-: mar camp uses b...'1-·1·{:. .om ei ~II"~'srec some 0' I t ,a.t ' h .tIS ted tra~l eftlist and u]tra-tradition,al ist ~o:n;,e:s of ai r-traffi,c c:o:ntrollers; an,d to'urists w'ere mhe lliikely rlesults :if th,e Icountry opt-edl for bent o:n lb~.o,cl,d,ngIefo.rm~ As he has noted, prev'e,nted fro:m boa:rding :feIf],eS to the' is= autatrky~:: in ot'her wo,rds~,if it stol:p:p,ed pay= ~;lnO' 1'°*'$", 'd',e'b"lt-" 'nd·· ·re··j··'le.- e'· ·'.d'·1th,e" I·,de'? v,= _', ,0' "ii::r_ ,a' 'c':1ifti.f- m'" t:h.e-'num'b"er of ,cit!z,en-s su~llie.n~.y'su-spic~,ous lands be-cause, of ,a, p:ilcl~et by the ,comm·u.I!l-lb _J, in' 1:0'- 'W" ,10t-·hl,CollreJg: h·' ,eilpl- t-·o",',['if~r~r,ds-·· '~ndJ o.f atU, change m,a.y now' increase; 31Smi,ddle.' n 6- s-,C'~'~I~ ni.st ~ab()ur:mO'v'em-en,~:; P,AME", _ b'., _ ~ 11 d'· S p. r.nsp,or~': 'cllia'lE's 1-.I!!~'~',.,;j,<"",!'G ..'S,' G--iIAO,o'kf'! AO. !!J..,'61w.. 'h'~r'doarnod'6 ,cit (-,~:,y;:' ,ad~minis.tra.mive hea.lth,~'lPn'bl ic-s,ector 'w,ll,gies ,'IIS WI ... onlllY a . - ,'~I~I ·t,· .,,'h - .. Th'"'"~~-""lllib-·e.... '~~-. smaUl.:·.en,,~ pier: "aps, rt'~~ ~ r-" ~-: .. 'h d en,ce , Gllee I{,tour operaJo[s, to t,. e (:Jonfl' ..II:--J . ,___: 0..r"-•. wou~,d pi 'u'ng,e" banks. w'o'uld ,cra.:s.,h, mh,e ly ,go. up ~n s"mOK'e,., I' ,On th,e ot"he'l hand '". th,e co'unti-=~'~' ,do,es w'ho say ,ilrr~'vals,a,'re sng'ht Iy 'up this year, ...... ". .. .. ,ry . ' (oun:·tt-~::- ...-~::- ~d;·'b,'" b" -~(-=,-d' f'.rom wor~,~,d" I ,d:___:'-b,t.. .. yWQU~, -.e .-aIle., .. e b;8[v',e a. constitue;n;cy' .of m,o"d,e,rnis,ers: p ,eo= aI'befut ,not as :m'uch as, in, d,estin,ationg,lik e m,ar]cets for y'ears,., lea.ving thie~euro could r·~··' . .... ~n'·t',QiIf'r'~'l.;:) 'W··,<··'O, ~n' ,·c·lu·ld- "r"1-,JI,,, .... .a.n._,d- '.._yp.rus.~ Th"'-' e moo ·d·· on POPU1ILa! Ir a.·t·~,d·· J.ufl{ey ····1- C,·-c. T··- -'. . ..·.. ._, icause hYP,erinfiation,., jpll.o,dl~p· ,i·'IQ,·s-se·,Qdl b,~y III " a :P~' . d · ·t" D d 'Tlheodoros fang,amos", th,e fatmo:usID.y' ~no b m-;--'!lII,f'ul c n--J!~,..t~'0'- 'n'~"l"n--"~'JI! ~'Uc,- C"t· ]" ,c.'Y' ili:"iIT'e-' m'.-'.-. a-: %",1 e''::__:c I= A eg,ean IS an_s re,malns q,Ul_e. upe-a '~'.._e · Il, c, Jl).;,. d '. .' '. " b'Ilmt . ,~lep'uty 'prIme mlnlste'r~ :pu,t lt e-ve:n tocra.ti,c c]ivU servic,e a~nd,'im:punity' for the spite a lig,e in, pa.nic s,aID,e of ga udy' new sec= s _ ,co:rlu.pt S;tathis n.u~:o,dorakis\~ a tel evision m o.re starllid,~If Gre eoe: 'W'lele to b,re aI, 'with ond :homes whmch ha,d d:r.aw'n the, attenh,ogt~ an,d foun,d,er of 'w·w·~prota.gon~,gI, at tion of tax, 'colh;:,ctors ..Stil~~, re is only so t'he its wo'ullidl-~'be saviours a.n,d illa,'un,ch, at new '. ... lac mat; l',oc.a 1 b . k' wau, 'ld 'b'e b"eslege ..ell pop'ular w'ebsmte', says h.e-fin,d.s ke'e-n inter..a.ns ... ·, :m:uch tear-g.as tha.t: 'vms~,tors to the 'muse:ums d·..· 'h" b~1' planiclt,ed d,e-p osito:rs ,a.n,d th,e atrm,y es.t il'm,ong the pubh,e in v'atriou$. reio:rms a.nd ,an,ci,ent sites of d,Qlw:n,tow,n Ath,'ens can W'QiU ,d h,av',e mo ke'ep or,dier~ ~~[Ih,e shops. 'w:um tham the mainstr,eam p,arties w',oumd nev',er. 'be e-xp!e!ci1ed to mn,ge'st ·- ,-- ... _. ..,~. _ . t· -~-h h" .- '. 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.. strating against an entire political class; .0,[ at leas.t the, ruling Socialists and their centre-right opponents, New Democracy One b.,a.nnier. ,out S,Ld e p,arm,am,en t a,s {,e.d ""h, - - ., - -:' - -1"" - . . ' sk . . ,ow an -]}~:~~-" i 3" lI." ~' I, , fh~lti_', m ,Q ,'y pi eces of-silver",. p"',O'11"'IIf'! an ,s. h ,dV''!!;;'tak en to. sell the nation, If' such protests implied a mature, rejection of the country's political order, that would be encouraging. As Nikos ,M:ou'z'e~,ID.s~ at so ciol ogi st, P' oints out, Gre ece' s two bi,g' parties have become machines for disl,
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pensing patronage and pork on a scale that is amazlng even b,y the standards of M:edj-

both pragmatic and risk-driven, His 111"'0 -v-entlon -W' u~, ca U'.1"1" OUrs ~'n n ;S'P' .,...'1.. ·at th _~ ~~rL~l .-~-_ with Mr Medv'e·,de'v (see picture), Analysts, concluded the Kremlin was revitalising an attacking the regime but ambi tious in stratold project to fake at sense of political 'pro- egy: he wants to decentralise the country, ~I" .' _ '. bac '. cess. Mr Prokhorov; they said must have b,rIng t, k m.ayora1 etecnons lln Moscow been made an offer he could not refuse, and St Petersburg, and, turn the local heads of the police, the tax inspectorate and the That's unlikely One of Russia's richest courts into electable posts, 'This would re= men, Mr Prokhorov ran and. part-owned Norilsk Nickel; an, immensely complex move the levers of repressi-on and violence from the current bureaucracy mining firm operating north of the Arctic: circle, and is nobody's fool, He has comUnlike Mikhail Khodorkovsky at jailed men in terests with both M··.· r Nem ~l"'Q!=V·" and tycoon, Mr Prokhorov h.. done well over as the past de cade, "Ioday, I am [rolling] in Vladimir Putin, Russia's p rime minister, Ul(IE: Mr Nemtsov, he believes Russia U['=' ch 0 co 'I~',e,b tb eingJ U St ri C h i no tiint eres t; ' a _u n is gently needs change. But like Mr Putin, he ling for me" I am still full of strength", he wants to avoid ,at revolution and at collapse had told party leaders a day earlier. The .. .. ~ .. prospects c' energetic, creative peopre m mr that wouldjeopardise his wealth. Russian politics ,Mr Nemtsov says the difference be:~ Russia are narrowing, Some 22%, of people tween him, and Mr Prokhorov is simple: say they are considering emigrating Mr "He wants to preserve this regime and I Prokhorov appeals to people who are fed up with the system, but have too m'u1c'h to want to change it and build Russia without I. I'· ".': ---,~:___' .. -:" 'h Putin an,d his friends.,:;'~ GJi've,n tham' the iose by mak Ing to ~_,e streets,., His mo've wUl ce,rtadinly' h,at,,.,e b!ee'n apK're'mlin,'~s:m,ain obje,etiv'e is. to h,omd, on to MOSC(~IW' p.rO'Vl9,d by' Mr Pu,tin,., A ge:ne..rou;S. explanap ow'er~ p"erh.ap s it is 'u'nsu~prising that: it W'hy is, Russia's third-wealthiest m!aD sees Mr NemtS'DV as ,an en,em'y' and Mr tion is th,at a regjme fearful of ap'proa,ehing ,en,terin,g potiltics,? ,crisis wants t:o .av'oid an, ,Eg'yptian, sc'en,ario P.rokho,rov as.an any~ A NY,ONE wat:'chi.ng the Kremlin, ove:r th:e "'We :hav'e t,o act" work, a.nd thin'k Uk,e' .a b,y oo='opt~ng {h,e ,most activ,e part of th,e fi p,ast 'w!e,ek might ,have 'belf:n ru.!eft ith a professio:n,aill and, responsib~,e party of population an.d. offsetting mhe :imp,act of ,Mr w s,e.nse of deep Iconfusfuon,~ 'On, June 2:2nld~, po-wert" Mr Pro"kho:r,ov to~,d,th,e pia:rty' c.on= PuUn'~s.likely' ,retuI,n, as p,resident (Mr PCll ,a, just after D'm~~ry M,edved,ev~,Russia's lP,re'si- vention;o "'[ s'uggest we ex,c]ulde th,e wor,d tin~s own Unmted:Russru.a.'has'bee:ndub'bed de.nt; lhaid (a,gain) 'urged, m,or'e p,olitic.al ,com,~ 'opp,osit~!Qn ~rro,:m, o'ur ~,exi,con~'bec.aus e for p arty of (~thie:ve s 2Jlnd '(!iO oks'~\ and is I osing petition~ th,e authorities 'barred 1It:h,e Hb, er,aJ o UI c:i t],ze ns [it]1 is 1..0 g a,s so cm~tled n,ot 'with, :supp,ort so fast: that the, pr1im,e mm,'nism,er has n d -,' ,I11'1 R",-, .a . -..·1 s F - .', , op,position Party of ,P1eople,'s Free,dlom", led, :P o~iti,calp,a'l"ties" b'ut with s.om,e mar,ginal ,cr,eal~,e' ,an !~~A: -,u.ss -~'. P eo'p,e '~'.,-ron"..t;~'h 0 ogroup,s.';'" Sta.te televisJon +nter,pr,et,ed th~,sas. vering u,P :mll Uons of state workels,~agr,ari'by 1.vHkhan Kasyannll a. fe:rmer 'pr~.me :m~n. a·n.'... .;,o,r~e· ~'mll'f",O'·~v.·~ ~:-'O,'iIl"n'1'iCI' d .~, "t ~ 'N m t .a si:gn of o,bedi.en,c,e ..Mr Prokhorov' me,ant it ,arns ,and :n.atio:naUistsJ ]t co,umd, also be th,at IS' ,.~.w.", . dB the I{r,emlin n,eeds ,at sp,arri:n:g' partn,er that ~t prim,e m~nffi t,er~from takin,g parm'~ a, p"a~rli,a,· to sh:ow' that h,e is. serious, ,atbout 'power., s n m,e'ntary em,ec~ion. :in De(:em,beI~U!Th:e elecf :His first goal is to get. the party int.o patr= -can, oo,nVlert into a ID,ID.,g:htn:in,g=rodor ,peo= p~e;s, ,anger with th,e rich an,d pow',erfu~ 'w'hffi,ch 'me,aDS 'winning ov!eI1% of tion is losi['ng ille'giltim,a'cy 'ev',en before it: ~iame:nt:~ wh.e',n th,e' tmm,e c.omies~ started.""~, says Mr Nie,mmsov~ the vote in, D"e,ce'mb'er. B:'u,t:hfusultimate amTh,e ](remlin wffilill ,doubtless try to 'use bitio.n mary' 'be to cla-,w 'baCk, influence :from, T'hree: days later~ however, the Kremlin emb:r,a,ced Mi kh,aJ.I Pro kh.orov~ a. bilH ona.i:r,e !corrup!t 'burea. u cr.a.ts and se'lcuri ty-s.e-rvice Mr Prokh.a'IO'~ But :he 'wiU hav'le his own agen ts who turn, t'h,etr offi,ci,alli p osfutmons to m.de,as a'bout how to use t:h,e l{remHn~ HIs oill~"ga,rchand afrien,d of Mr N'e:mtso~,as th:e ,chances of g,adnin_g- mhe up'per h,a,'nd ,am m'h,elro'wn a.d'v,81'ntage,. The prim!e: 'ministe:r's, new ~,ea,deI' Right C~ause~nother Ub,er.al of a 'sl~ml 'b,u~'~:sal.ys, wouid be, nice,., p,artJT;b'u,t on'e approve,d by mh,e autho,riti,es" job, Mr'P'rokho-rov W:-,~t-h DI !c;-w.'~'p. ,11~y::-,Qr- th,o g: -!il1'rn 'w""l"]]1 I, JlQ _ ~, - - . -" - '1- -" - _. ~- - . Th,e ~'mposing:Mr P'[olrhoro,v :receiv@"d air· 'Those w'bo L\cnow him say that hie: is. CeJtatIDn.y 'b_ecome - .m,ore,- ill+mve'1- y~•
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terranean democracy art from C'-. an an:'-Y" th in Eli, b- ~. done ~ '. ' nomic plans designed to stave off shortt erm disaster? G eorge Papandreou the prime minister, 'has floated the idea of constitutional reform that would put an end to old-time patronage politics b,y cutting the number of legislators and alteringthe electoral system, If such changes were approved in,a referendum, it would mean M'r Papandreou had successfully appealed to citizens over th,€ heads of his own parlia'Ih -- ~-e, .1S . b m.'en t· . ar:mans'O- ,,3. t may b hi '1,a.s.t ,".. e s m h.op- e of regaining the political initiative, But it is, also possible that many Greek citizens are disappointe d. wi th 'politic ians :not because they reject the old patronage system; bur beca use it has. run out of money and is now failmg to. provide for them ~If Mr Pangalos 'is 'light that everyone ate a.m the trough then some people may sun be --", d t cravmng h anou.s t ..'M' th.,,a.,case,~ l-h peop.e1 n .,.e responsible for Greece's fate-at home and abroad-will now have to. cope with the politics of hunge r, _
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Europe 43

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[The!French presi dent may b,e unpopular, but don't write, him [o[ff
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Mr Sarkozy may not 'be able to claim direct credit for Ms Lagarde's nominarion to the 'MMP~But he selected and promoted her am home, keeping her on to' become the country's longest-serving finance minister

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'Confidence 'in Ni'colas Sarkoz!it'
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pended animation. This week, however, the countdown to' the 2012 presidential election seemed to begin. for real, Two [(00= tenders put :intheir name s for the Socialist n omination, France got a, new finance min= ister, after Christine Lagarde was picked to' succeed Mr Strauss-Kahn as IM:F boss, And, President Nicolas Sarkozy launched a grand appeal to rebuild France. The new Socialist candi dates are 'both women: Mtl'ftfne ,Au,lbry~the party leader, and Segolene Royal" who most mO'M'l' Sarkozy in 2.(}07~ Along with Francois Hom= lande, Ms Royal's former partner and the party's 'ex,~ oss, they are the three frontb runners for the nomination, which goes 111''0 a vote by registered left-wing supporters in a two-round primary in October, The, latest pons suggest that the second-round vote will pit Mr Hollande, the favouri te, against Ms Aubry, Neither candidate has anyt ng ike the international stature or experience of Mr Strauss-Kahn, whom 'many had expected to, represent the Soc ialists in 2012,~Mr Hoi= lande has never held a ministerial job" though he led the party for n years, Ms Aubry :iS a former labour minfster, 1bestltnown fOI i'ntrodUlcing the 3.s-hour wor~{]~ng 'weiek to Fran,oe;.. Mr HoII ande is m-h,e
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Ms Aubry in th,e Industrial town, of Lil· €, where she ~s mayor+giving them some grass-so Obi credibili ty~ On p'8,p"er the' Socialists should sweep to 'victory next year. They have not won the p.reS][ - eney 81 nee Fran t; 0 ~.S M'~ errantd id .' .itt was re-elected nearly a quarter of a century ago. Vot.ers are fed up with the mercu."(-:- '. - ~-: .-. -'.-: ".' . ~~. -, - i' 1-' ~.- -.-I .-"[ 1 -

lar left-wing appeal Both have built a regiona] fief- Mr Halla nde in rural Correze;

in over 3-~) years, Her appointment to the lMF is a small 'COU,:PI for France, She was replaced as finance minister 'by' Francois Baroin, the outgoing budget minister, in, a mini -reshuffle unveiled on June 2:9fh~'ValeriePe -,:' - e .,,,-, I·,·,t-··-:.'I· I~:t'-'I- I~a_ rle e ere ss e, the u n.lverSl. 1es mInIS er~takes es over the budget portfo io, Anotherfactorm Mr Sarkozy's favour is the Prench economy After decent firstquarter figures, Insee, the, national statistics body, forecasts 'G'LlP' growth in 20U of 2.,l%=hID.gh,er than the government's own estimate" The IMF states that: ,~~ growth in zon is ]jkely' to. exce ed earlier expectations" ~The French know that. they are not h th snertere: d f rrom tne turmou~~II·' G m ...reece an d elsewhere mn the euro zone, B'ut such trends are nonetheless comforting, AU of which seerns to have led to at bottoming out of M-r Sarkozy's approval ratings, which 'had, been in free fall over the past two years, or ten recent p olls, only
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nior j:Hlrty figure, The Strauss-Kahn affair does not seem to have backfired on the So= cialists, Left-wing voters appear to' consider his arrest a personal difficultg not a party' matter, and have SWWlg behind the ,atlte.rnartilv,es~ 'One pollli finds that: Mr Hol'mand' ... w- .. 1Il ., b'....e- '~I't-· r-' 'a- r'koz'y" 'b'y U., ,i'O ,e' '~!d M-·l-' ~:oit 40%,~,n a :p.res~,dent~,a]'se(~Qnd-:roundl vote,; Ms Aub-ry w',Q'uld fare almost as. wemm, winning 'by 58% to 4'2%" c· hOi' ,_u ,,00, l.n.g,~ ,-- -_ S.. ,ch- ,.num-,b ers '1 k crus~,-'-',-,-;- ,atHd eer tainly' 1dr S,arl~ozy' is :in 10r a, tough cam= , _~. '"'"..~ ~ '"' .v ~tjff' .. -n __ P[;aig: ~,no..t ~e~s,~: ~jf"ll,u~e- ,h~ .als,/"i:£~'c~~ o'pp['os~.ti.on, from Marin,e [e: Pen~ th,e ener= getmcyoun.g leader of the N'a.tio:n,a.lli Front, as well as t:h:f 1)0 ssib,iilli ty of' a centrist c.an d],= d,ate: sp[htti:ng the: right However, .it 'woUld be a big mistake t_.Q. rule M:r S,arkozy o'ut~In re,ce'nt m,onths., m~ndfu~.of the virule:n.t CI~ti[cism .of his style, h,e hats b·e,en stud.fnusIy dis,cre,etJ. ttyi'ng hard, to be'have in ,:1 mOl,e pre's,ident~,am m:anner.., This week" whim,e un= veiH~ng €35 hilmi,on ($,.5'0 bilU,on)' of :inv,esl= . -... ,". .. m,e,nllTt mn Jt" 'h- .nOll!ogyan, d:-'.r-ese.arc'h th'-, £:.,. I ",t I~ec ,_ .. _,e j[j[UTIL 00 fan at~,ona!l bo:n,d,~ h'e tried to dilstanoe: himself from petty p[o,Utm,cs with mofty talk of jp[re'par.in,g for ""th,e Fr.anc.,e in 2:0 years.' ti:m,e"", He did his lbest not 'to moolt smug when he hosted world ],ellders at ,a, re'ce.'nt G8, summit in :Deauvmlle", H'e :ha.s. e'Vf~nm,an,a.ged :no~ to icrow' public~y ,a.bout th,e :pr,egn,anlCY of his w~fe, C,arma.Bruni-S,a-rkozy~
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startling of all, the Pren ch se ern m 0 think: that M:r Sarkozy will win, next year whether they' want him to. 01 not, In a ,H,til'rris poll this month, only 28'% said that they wanted

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have 'been awaiting trial for over two years funthe so-called Ergenekon case, involving score s of generals a nd allies who allegedly plotted to overthrow AX", Kem al I(~~t.cdar.oglli"u, the C,RP 's leader, says both 'men should be considered innocent until proven guilty' and has, caned on Mr Erdogan to, come up wroth lega] changes that would allow them to be freed, He was quick to remind the prime minister that 'when he had faced similar troubles it 'was the C,HP that:helpedhim out In 19'98 Mr Er'-' dogan, then mayor of Istan btl]" was briefly imprisoned and barred from politics for five years after lh e had. re cl te d several verses from a. nationalist poem that prosecutors deem ed to be a. calm for sharia rule .. When, AI{ won power :in 2,00,2;, it' was only' after the CH:P' approved constitutional tweaks that Mr Erdogan was permitted to stand in a by-election and claim the premiership, Yet' the prime minister seems unswayed. Unlike the CHlP jailbirds, he says, he was prosecuted not for a "terror" crime 'but for his thoughts, [TeUthat to the proKurdish Peace and Democracy Party (B.DP)" which itsboycotting the grand national assembly altogether and collectively sulking in, Diyarbakir, the Kurds' unofficial cap it al .. Five of the party's elected members have , " '!i;,,' ',ciI. '__:_'I, I .__,.~ _' ': ,',' m' • i;..'~ ~I been: _, told by' court thatI~,they ~ "UIS*~ remain _ in,prison, where they face trial on terror-related charges. A sixth Kurdish deputy H,81tip Dicle, was barred from parliament 'beta use of a prm.or I(onvi ction. on ,eha,'rg,es of m,lembe'rshjp' of the :rebem I(u-rdls.t.aln Work,e'rs' P,Btty (J?I{K)'~ NIT Dicle~'s 'crime was to ha.ve- :publh~Iy'b,j~u~ke-,d Pl('K'S ri,g'ht to d,e'=' th,e fe'nd :its1elf a.gainst th,e .aI.m:~ Yet th,f. dleicru,= (1l~lon *'0 kll2i;!GiIp h'!' ill 'b"!GiI'h".ailn' b ,C'1!,.!Il" ,',!' :!IIp'p.i9~a'!:!I'fS ,t,iIfiI. mm' d' ~' contradict,.an earU,er :ruImng tha.t he, sh,o-ullid 'be aUow,ed to stand fOir eJ.ectt o:n,~ AK o.ffi,cials. 'htnt ,darkly at a ne'w Er-ge'nekon-mn,sp,tred p~.om to· salbotage ,de:moC'racy~ Th,e B,IDP ,an.d, CH'p tetort: thl;t th,e elector,s] bo.ar,d and c.a:urts ,are stacke,dl with 'pro= A,I{ men ..Eith!er. way; w'hat s!e'ems ,cill,ear :is tha.t d,esp.ite many AK~ins'p:ire·d reforms,~ Tut'~ key's judicia] and !eme'tt,ora~ system is in, :n,e'e:d 'Of .a rat,dic.Bd overh alul.. Me'anwh.ile~.the PKl{ is. thre',ate'ning to end its tru,ce andl t:o carry ,its .i:n,surg,en,cy to th,e cmtie's, unh~ss mh 18' :B D':P d,ep,utm"es, ,are, fre'e"d" Bu.t Mr Erdog,a.'n s.h,ows no si.gns of reill,e:nt'i:ng" Judicial in d,enP'!end,en,cle must be :re'-' sp ,ecte d" he msists~ He has. :s,p'u-rne d, tlhe 'C,RP"S d,em.ands for llieg,al ;(:hangies" sayin,g' th,at the opposfutfuon ,cr,e.ate,d t'h,'l~ mess. by' fiemding- ,conttove'fsiaJ candj.da.tes~ As for the KU,r.,ds~,this w,eek Mr Erd.oga:n, re'buffed, th,e ,B,DP"S re'quest :£or .at m,eetin,g'" T1here are several re'asons for ~:his'u'n'-' compromising stance" Mr Erdo:gan m,a:y fe',af tha.t: cr,ea.ti:ng: ill,eg,al 1.0op holies for th,e jail,ed cUP' d,e'puties, will wea.ke:n th!e caSH:: ag,alinst th'E: rest of the 'Erg,en,eko:n SOSI}e,ct;s,.. And ,he is. maintainin,g' th,e determine-dIy' n,atio,nalilst to:n,e' hie ,adlopted o,n the cam:~'
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paign trail, a tactic designed to steal votes ~,'-.' th e NJ.,amon,adS t. A,'' 'C lon. P'" tv (- ~'~--" .ti .- "aryM,HP) u,om ., __: :It"'1 ·)1:', .. Yet although an M:}-IP deputy is also ~'n, prison, the nationa ismstook th eir oaths this. week, Could a new alliance be, in the works? Add, the MHP';$. 53 seats to AK:'S 328 and, a. new constitution, which requires some cross-party support, 'would 'be in the bag". But at what pri ce l' Deepening ,po ru, iti c.al and economic instability and, possibly further bloodshed seem the likely answer .. ogan h ways know'zn Ih cann 'Mr'· E~r-~d' when to. pull back from the brink The hopes are that h.e,will do so again,
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.,0. 0a --n1inos w ~"l'm p~-- cor t'h,o .':llll.,·, a:y stop a :rise mn,'un,iversi t~l es,.,P,erh,a.ps th ey G'-"radu'Ei'tfi-oC},'j' -'t&I~1 ,~,' Ii . s:h,Q;uid :h,a.v,e ta lre'n off mh.e:ir clothes in stea d~ fe,es 'many times ov,er~ Mr M'i:ill,er a.rglues ,as, a. group· of a.rt' stud,ents in, Hamb:u'rg dm,d, t:ha.t ~e,es.,en,co:urag,e stud,ents t.o think hald~ o.'a'iii"'l~i.o;r',t'h~s U'.o'~I¥ J'h.o c~,t-y~-·,fio~''''lI~'QjI,e -'"ly' n' orW' ,et .ab'out wh,at th,ey' w,ant: to. stud,y ,mn,d u'ni= ,J" ,e~,e'cte',d overnme,nt, fo,rmeld 'by th,e Soe:i.al ve:rsmtmes to tre'at th,em, 'with more :respect g D',emocr81tic P,aIty' (sF'])l, willI .ab oUs\h tu~ T'he ,milssp end~,ng complaints ,are 'based o,n ilit~,on in '2012" Hamb'urg is ,one of sev'er= ,a~ew' lw],d ,press. reports", h,e says .. fe:,es To 0(1 avail, sPD,-Me,dNO'Ith Rhi'ne--:Westal G'e;rman states in whm,ch n,ew~ usually iIfl,h· .....·1~ ~ ·G-' ,,o;rm~lny· ~'"~ m" os't, p' on U~I.: '}.' 'tr'.:f-~It.o, ~iC', . QU:- 'S me.ft=ru,eaning gov'ernm,e,nts ar!e bringing ~ ,41J1Lu, . ·a, y. , I,· back fr'ee un~,versity educ.ation~ ,Of the sev'= .and rich B,81den:-'Wultte'mbe,rtg, no·w run by en states that mntrodu,ce',d tlutio:n fees afte-r ,a. Gr,e,en,~S"'D c.o.alitio'n, pllian t:o join Ham~ the c.'ons~j~utio,nal CO'UIt aUowe,d m'he:m, in b·urg in ,ab"olishing- t.Uition ~ees~All 'pledge to. re,plac:e the lost r,ev'en'ue~'b'ut sUlc'h p:lom~ 20,0.5, just two-Lowe-r S,axony and BaVflI~-.'-,-.,'h-I'~'·'-' 'eH~n _,ro, -",,-, 'e, on~:," am _urg ,S i,a-:plan to c,ontinur€ ..A h,a~f-heltrted e'xplerm- lIlS'fS, a.ve" 'b--I'-"- ',- b-I""I-k- e.n" 'b--I-£-:"I'-'-' H-- '--'b}'·' ,-;,~. na~{e,dart stu,dents may rUle their vic.tor~ ., ment:is fizz.u,ng O'ut
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'I: ~h' '. £' G I=_lSlsano, dd way ror c ermanytopust 'h1 Irsuniversitiestnro the top tier ..No German institution is among th,e leaders in global rankings, and money is 'part of the problern, The United States spends nearly twice as much pier student as Germany does", Two-thirds of American universities' revenues come from private sources, compared withjust lS% In Germany The federal government is plumping in money through programmes like t:he "excellence initiative", which promotes mainl Y' research ,at a few select universities, But it s.o· far 'has, done little to improve teaching, which, is what students tend to care about Meanwhile states are cutting basic financing, notes Margret Wintermantel head of the German Rectors' Conference, At terti ary insti tutions the ave rage professor handles ,53 st udents, and that will rise, By' shortening secondary-school study by a year, states have created a bulge - - - ran s, it, --'0.f new en, tr , ~ , t'he en d o f" nn..lnary con, scription :in July will add more, The extra :g'O'v'ern'men.t help unive rsities are getting 'lit WO-In'i be en O-':U' sh ~,"!liV~. 'M' rs Win term an tel I;.IIL,J Universities embrace d fees as a way to II d.....: . - .. ,; . 'Tb improve teac hi ,llng con di '. _:Jtlons~I" e buraen-' on students lc oks light In most states they play €S>o,o tS720) per term-nothing like the I' ", I '. m ,-. '. A' mortgage SIzed sUms.,Er:Vl€ d on, Amencan, and soon British, students, Fees produced €L'2 'billion. for German universities ]'n '2'0,08" a modest but useful sum compared with their total spending of €36 billion -", -b ,-"," -'T~:'hl' spen: d it pre , di1C~ia_lly~ sma.ll ,er C ,ass ley ',:-", ',.,- 1. ',:-, : ,~'.: h .on ;--:",~iII'l-',-,-] ~,~, ,es" b'lett.er~le:q'uipp e:,d lab oratori es" lo:ng'er u~ brary hours an,d th,e llii.ke 'usucdly in ,consul= tati on with st:uden t''S~ I,his ,did not {~onv~nlce lefi-of-,ce'ntre p,a:rti.es; whru,ch mhink educatffi,on should be free tro·m .ltind!erg,afte'n to ,coUoquium", Fee's,~ they ,aUe g,e, ,d,et,er p.o te'otiaJ siu,d!€nts, eSllle,el,aII y fl10m plo.o:r famiUes~'The money ms .often wa:Ste,d~~OI lexam,pl,€ on blIU,a.rd, t.ables.,~ b 8rb,ecue s and" 'in .one ca:se,~ ,de.fLb'rin,at.ors~ SUIC h 0 i~Je,ctio:ns ,at'e m,os,tJllY no:ns,ense,~ says Ullirich MulllieJ' of ,eRE, a th.ink=tan.k. ," II , .' - ' " . c.an c,efer ,pa.ym,ents an,d- states 0 f Stude,nts fer moans on. easy te'r,mSi ,A stu1dy' of w,estern sta.tes b,y H:ES a state-Iun COns.llltanc.y~ foun,d that' s cno·ol-I e',av,ers in st.ates I'b,at ,ehaIgie tu1ti on aI'e 'no me ss ~ l:y mo a ttien,d ike unive.rsit.y than those i'n no·n=tuiltmon, states"
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If not .now; when? 'This may 'be as muchas can be expected froma 'union itowhich 27 friendly building i.n Br ussels, call ed "Europa", that will house members must decide money matters unanimously But it is still a. wasted. opportunity If the aftermath 'Of the most: severe finansummits and the leaders' "president", Herman VanRompuy Against them line up' the big :recipie nts, above all Poland, that cial crisis i.n seven. decades is not' the right time for reform, then fear a loss of funds, The: European Parliament, the champion of when is? For some critics, any spending 'by the- lEU 'wHlli always be EU spendingwants a. 5%increase mthe budget as ,8., share of EUlrOtoo much .. But even those who value the union despair at the , pean states' national income (the rise would be bigger mn real com p lextty and absurdity of its finances, terms, barring a. recession), ]t says the EU needs more mon,~y to Were the 'Treaty' of Rome s~.g,nedtoday; the EU would 'not m,eet its mem,'be'ls' d,em.llnds, am,ong the:m ,cre,ating' a dip~om.at~ilc choos,e to s.p"en,d tw·,o·,fifiths of its b,udg,et o:n,agrmculture ...Ttue·.~th,e se rvice,. su.p'p,o,rtin.g thie Ara.b sp.ring ,and fi:g'h~ing cUm.ate ,ch,an.ge~ ·b·utte'r 'mO'untains of old. .have ,disa.:pp"eare d." the C AF is s.h·rirniting 'This w'le'eit t'he' lEUliOP! e·aln 'Com:missio.n (the- EU'S ,civil s,erv]ice) and th,e E·U d.o"es 'hav'e a. rollie to 'play in. re gulatin.g agriculture ..B'ut s.pIHlt the di'ffere.n,ce w~.th w'hat :it: call1ie,da u·am.hiH.ous but::respons~.·=· th·e CAP .is.m.ost~y· a social·=·welfare .p:rog:ramm-e~, an,d that s:h.o'uld ble'~' .p.roposal~ t'hough its mudd~e:d an,nounoe.ment hardly i:n.·=· 'be a matter for n.a.tional gove:r.nme:nts" How tOj'ustifY th.-e iniqu~.ty sp,ir~s ·co:nJid,en·ceab,O'ut its pled.g,e to 'be transparent r:h!e commis= of rich.er :farmers .in. w'este:rn Europe bein.g paid. far more than sio,n n,ot.es t'hat:, for aU the: t,d~k 'Of waste fu~ spending an.d thos,e in po orer c,e'ntraill .a nd eastern stab;s?' A'n. e·'CJu.cdly big ite·:m is th,e "'l:ohesionH poU.ty for poorer smal es and re·gions~ Rich,er ,counpam·I)·ered .Eulocr.ams; its own running ,costs axe 6% of th.e b'udget t.ota.t lEU' spending." i:n.turn.; amounts to just 2%, of niaUona~,lbu,d- tries s:hou~d help poorer o'nes" but 'recycling ·mon.e·y thr,ou.gh Bruss,eis for fh.elr own, ~,e w,e:U-off fe·gmons, b!en,efits only EUlo,crats .. ss. , gets;; ~"I'n.e-ve·:ry ,co'untry ther,e is a da]l w'h,en pe,ople stop w'orkln:g fo,r the maxm,an an.d smart ea.rning for t:he·:m.se~ves.,,';sa:llys .a se·nior 'What .Eur.ope :needs,. alb,ov·e aU~]ise,conomic ,gro'wlh~ Th,e first EU,f.o!cra.t i'~ln B;,elgium it happ,e:ns so·me· time in August For th,e 'EU Job should 'b,emoO, ,avo:id Watst,€, such a.s parHame:ntary' s.essio:ns in it :i.sJanu:ary· 4t'h.~"~The trouble is~.many· taxpayers se'e 'EU sp,ending [ Strasbourg and. minili.steri.al on,es in. Luxem.bourg~ 'Wh·at 'money · l".~ .;;I!i " v: do: _.....!g.·t~·~r-- - ~V'IO- _ I ,as ,a-n extra b,urde,:n; th.e·y d:o 'not wa.nt bud.g,et r.is1es to m,ean th'ey ·th-,~ pu !dl~10- ,e- ~,p-iii::i!'n'- do, ·W·: ',n:u-' -I .: b-·Gri b'~_"".ll.""" d_...... .._."""t~·id~+'0-:' ~n- -: V. Gri c'tm-- Grin' -:- t~ n-- K .ing tran.s=.Europ ean tr.anspllo.rt .an d ,energy' .networks; s,ay; or 'b ooststart earning fo.r th'emse:ID.ves in S,eptember. IO'n.eof the most 'v1exed, an.dl ultjm.a·h~:lliypo~n.t].ess;fights will b,!e .ing the administr.ative capacity of we.ake:r ,countries~ MI Barr,oso ()v,er ""o'w'n (ieSOUrces"", I'n. the Ilast th.e EU h.as be·e.n financf-,d mnstarg'ues for aU fhis~ B'ut: as the- war cry g'oes up!, :his Ico'urage- toO, re~ ].y out of customs d.'uoes an,d agr.ic.ultur.allevies" B,ut these Utr.a,d~.. form:is faUing hi:m~ • =· mionaill Qiw:n rlesources'~ h,ave· dwi:n.dle;d th,anks to trad,e libe·raIis,ation .. Albout thr·ee-q_uarters ,of t·he· b'u,d:get is now fund,ed dire,ct'lliy
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unintended consequences. Last year; in a bid to' transfer most of the spiralling costs
of tuition from the state to students, the Conservative-Libera] Democrat coalition raised the maximum fee s English universities can charge, while slashin .. the excheg quer's contribution to teaching, The aim 'W'2JlS both to ease the pressure on the public

purse from rising student numbers, and to create a market in which universities cornpete for students on cost and q'u.aUt~, The plan faimed on both counts-but ignited riots among students and ire among parents and lecturers, On Jun'e 28th the (0= alition unveiled new proposals '~,Ocontain costs and. facilitate choice, by I etting 'both 0'0-' and c.. , : " ~Jl!!.' .~ ..l!!, ~'~ .s expand ,;b.' od ~L~ '. hea'p unrv ersitie ·. ... .:, uLL' ~ -,L' At the root of the government's trouble has· b€H2n a s~m"plemisca~cul8lt~on,," Whe·fl,. la.st year,. 'Pad ~am,ent v·ote·d~o'~·ncre·ase·mh;e maxim'urn, annual ~~ui~ion fro.m £]·,,37:5 fee ($,5:·,4"00,) to ~f9~O'OO' from Se:pte:mber 20U,. ~d'l ' etts.~ th 'h"nih ,ed U:c.atlon mm ,. ..· .. D a.V]l'- W. "~III ······.···.·lJll. "'e . ID.5ft-:..er .. = ," ,·t·_" ''''''"d ,·t·-h-· Ull 'h' ..', wou_ k lS,le:I~,8,311_., . e. "f~I ~'I' W. alie•... ..' I' llid·1m... ch'l .. argf_.··d u·e .' . . only in ""·excep,tmo.naill cin:'um'stan,ces~"" H·e 'w.···.··· ·'il:JiiS·~w· r~ng::.M·l i"'\S-·t'· 'ill· 'ni'fl::7"~:!T,S:,itl" e';s, h.?ve:· c···h. lo·.s·>en ~ mng :1nst~,tun,ons.'h ,av'e " "' "' I to ,as\. :[9~,O 0.0.;, :m1,did'}" " ra~.sed t:h.eir fe,es i'n ~in.e'with th,e elt te; :sa,fe in. the knowle,dge that dem.and fo:r plcu:e's is ~'·o·. if"~¥o: -: ·tl·h·~'~· °1:' r-if"W'" I"lIlJll 's-'t-t1 b.o· .~,~I' ,~. 'Th· n ·t-h··· n .J1ILUJ, .o·d· resuh 'is th,a.t, on .av,era,ge·, 'u'niv,ersm ty education in Engb~ln:dwimm so,on. be ,as le:x:p ensi.v,e '
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as in America 1(;5 cotland and Wales have .0 n~y' o institutions that charge tuition fees t ';'f, Jih'7'" 50'" "0" or less.. their own reg~mes), Me,Blnw'hf ,Ie th ose universitie s that at:Lml~i€ th,€'; spiralling costs of health care, tract highly qualified students-de, those the upward trendin university-ruitionfees is a. gID,ob.a].one, In America the price of t1J~ who get two A grades and at B or better in their .A·=lev·ellis~, exams most pupils sit at the ilion has risen faste-r than other measures of inflati on for the past: three decades: as 18-can expand to take as. many as they want Some 20 % of students attain these high. IDees threaten to outstrip the returns to graduatesin their later careers, there is talk grades ..'The aim rus to put pressure on medi" . .'. '..' " .Ilg d ()f an unsustaina bille bu bbl .e ln, h'" h e.r e_uI o ere u.. niversitt es to drop their prices, .0,[ risk catio n, In Britain, the price will have In- losing both their clever students to their sucreased eightfold over the 13 years to 20,12 .. perlor rivals and parsimonious types to, Fees alie rising across Asia and. Europe, too .. the cheap-an d-cheerful, A'nd Mr WfUe·tts wants to entice more One reason for the expense ffis ercepp , tion: students view price as a. proxy for low-cost providers into the system .. Stu= dents enrolled ,at for-profit institutions of= quality; universities worry that low fees si duct ...nott wiill SIgn.a a secon d'l - product, A" th er fering cheap iCO'UISles win b,e eligible for -rate state-sup p orte d 1oans, Local vo cationa] is that, in many countries, the state lends SI udents the funds to pay for their courses, colle ges are to be allowed to te ach degre e "·t··h· .i:C"". .' .. .," '.' . ··I,,~ wn . th e. enect 0'·f·'" dr'TIlVTIlng up . d '... d e " .. courses, with the exams set 'by universities .. uernan' ... even "f' ~ oeco ~ M'l 'WUletts also wants to create more dismpnce s b me eye watenng, cernin g". better-informed consumers: uni'The squeezed middle versities will be oblige·d. to ptovild.e m.ore ,O:ne su.c~hplaice ~,sE~n,glan,d.~ 'w'here' fee ~'n- info;rm:a.~io:n on how many .hours the·y teach ~ ·and the c:are'e rs. ,and s,alaries th eir Icre'·ases hav'e sta.rk c.onsequen,ces for the p:inchedl Tre.8lsury~ Un,d,er the, :sys~:emun= :gra.dua.tes e:njo~ (M.ore ·y·o·un.gsters m.ay ,one day' infer that the in:v'iestme:nt of U~me veillie,dla.:st yleaI~,h.e exch'eq.u:er fo.rks o;ut for t t'h,e fe es;, grad'u:atte s be:gfu.nto :pay the s.e ill·oans and mODley' is .not worthwhile:: according to I:,an WaU{er of Lan·caster Uni'v'e:r:sity~ lev'en back when th,ey' are earning £21~O"OO~The sums oiwed 'by' stud,ents a:nd grat·d'ulates ,are b,efore the coming jump! funfe'f's a male .arts '·······t*l· idl··· 'b,l t"'I; .·-70 bur·· . i' t"h········ s~x ,·····t'···,>· se ~oou~e 0 £.~.. .!__~.lo,n,n IL e nex __ gradual,e with a. la.cklustre degre'e' would b 'e bet~!€r- off over ms Ufetirn,e 1f he, ha.,d ye'ars-and .Mr 'w'~nettsreckons t'hat ],,0% of gon,e stt,aighm .into emp1moym,€rnt a.t 18.,) ali 10 alnswill be ,endl'u,p bei'n,g' lorgiv-en~under 'rules mh.at can,cel th;e d,ebts, of lo;w-'e·a.:rnWill :i~: work? Sin'ce th,e cost 0'(' e'd'uc:a~ing lers after ]0, ye·atrs~Me·at:nw:h'ile ,de·ma.nd. for .a.n und.ergrad.u;tlte at so:me· '0.1' th!e; bes~. u'nm-' pl81!ces ;continu,es, to ;cUm'b ,driven,. in the versitiles is 'not whoIMy c.over,ed even b,y the ...'
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• higher fees, some have, no Intennon to, expand their student rolls, so some, highachievers will 'be turned ,awa~ Declining student numbers at mediocre institutions that are unable to compete at either th!€top or bottom end of the market might in theory force them to close: hut their Importance to their lo cal econo mies wID]] make axing them di fficuh, and in practice they

aetna lly Increas e regulation." The grumpiness IDS 'not confined to bolshy' academics and rioting students, University funding has created tension in the
by their broken, election pledge to 'OPPOS'f: any in= crease in fee s, the Lit b Dems are irrita ted that these proposals only pay lip service to fair access fo:r pupils from, pl'OOI backgrounds, They want: universities to admit more 0 f them; p olicies intende d to force them to will be, unveiled later this month-to, the chagrin of many Tories., coalition: already embarrassed

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'by the secretary of state and will n,€)longer include the three might be taken over by' a, neighbour" service chiefs, There will be it fresh emphaThere have been predictable objections to the plan, on, these practica grounds and S~Son integrating the armed forces through others, Although universities have, 'in thethe establishmem of a Joint Forces 'ComThis, is a volatile Issue Tony Blair's e,f-, mand led, by' a four-star officer, Tha.t, will ory, always been private institutions that bri ng together capa biliti es such as 10 glscompete to. attract the best students, many forts to mcrease tuition fees were more lecturers resent the exp icit tnvo vement of contentious in Parliament than his deci- tics.p arming, intelligence, cyber and some market pressures, Others point out that the sion to wage war on Iraq, There is ,goo,d equipment purchases, Dr Fox sees the news, then, for those who enjoy parliaJoint Forces Command as both an impormarket 'win, b"e rigged, Paul Greatrix of the tant organisation in, its own right and a University of Nottingham says "there is a mentary pyrotechnics: Mr Willetts's plan symbol 00'(' the ethos of co-operation and paradox fun these proposals, which talk mh,e seems destined to protract the debate over unt verst t y funding rather than, resolve it. • flexibility he wants to cultivate. language of markets and deregulation but One, consequence is that the role of the three, service chiefs in influencing departmen tam striate gy and resource allocations will be, sharply reduced, Th,ey 'win be kept busy by being given greater responsfbility for managing the-ir own budgets, Lord [ie= vene also 'wants. to see a halt to the merrygo-round of staff changes that undermines accountability by insisting that senior military and civilian staff should stay in their posts for at leas .four years" I,h'i s is all sensl ble sruff ]t is high time that the structure of Br.itain's armed forces 'was decided by' 'more rational means than rancorous and myopic bargaining between the services, There is, however, stil a missing pi e ce: a fIX fo r the broken acqui sition system, Dr Fox promises that Bernard G:ray~, the recently appointed and highly rated chief of defence materiel, win announce propo sals for ending the- procureDefe'nce reform '. ,- nIt",s 'hi ·'in...,~I,. b .. c,_,-," ie en " !fl' ,e year, me ammes oerore the ,I· d 0= t'h, -,'.': Even so, there is only so much Dr Fox can ,do at the, 1evel of dep artmen tal efficiency while the government refuses to provide the cash to mate ::1. its ofty strategic ambition, "Brftain's 'national interest requires 'us to reject any notion of the shrink= This week's shake-up of 'the defence establishment ms·sensib,le-:but its problems age of OUI influence," declared a strategy run deep document last year, But the budget was are run, Dr Fox said: "The future defence smashed aillmthe same, programme was worse than a delusion-Jt That' conrradicnon has been highllght'---.-,-_.,-.",t-··, N' .1-0 ,--,~,-- .. lste _.,m- thee ,',- -.- --· ", - - -lib - -- - u "f ence secretary was- ,8.-d ent era t e ~I'~e.,~,~ rmruster Inc.om ed 'by :David Cameron's decision to interTh,e changles hie is ,now d,etermine"d to' =v'-~'nl 'L''l"'b-y-:-·"'lIL'~C"* ml ,on' 'th th' ~'plr' l'~m', ll1l'i~n''l~'Sing co,a1ition gov'e-rn,me'nt last yea:r :inh,erit~ a le,d a bigge:r mess or ,a m,OI!e dysftIn,ct~,ona~, push, 11!'hrough ,are b,ase,d on .reco,mme'nda,te''l' r,eb'uke,d servm,c,e chi!efs '~or t:heir highly ,departm,e:nt pulblic :mo,a'ning ab"ont the, strain the, Lib,yboOns m aide 'by lnrd Levene".a. bus.ine.ssm an who aUemp,med (wru.th limim'!edl su,ccess) to! an ,c.am;p,ailign, is, pluttin.g ,on th,eir m.e·n and George iO'sboIne, the chanc:eU,Qr.af mhe ,exchequ,er~ 're':port,ed].y'observ,ed t'h.at ~he brIng so'me cl()m'me-rcial discfpU'ne t.o, the rna,chinies.: hie s,aid that they' s~houldsU,clt to d!eience budg:,et W,81S '''~th!em.ost ch,atot],C',m.'h.e MOD in, t'he· 19'80s, w:he'n L,ady Ihatch:er fighting and leave lhe tailing to him~ T'hits , 11'D ."". I ' ~ -, ~ .' '. dL was p,rmm,e 'mlnIste:r~L·or,.- ·eve'ne d:oe's.not. weeJL{, r,"F"'" came ~ ,e' osecot .',aocusmng IU,WO 01f: .. ~ most d.isorganised.~ th,e mos.t ,ov,ercommit·ox ' ','1 ,'" te,d .."']n addit.io:n to thie, ,8% ,cut in its fun,d~ng ,cru,aim thiat his :p,lan wUl ,do m'ulch to bring th!e: m,o.anler:s~the first s e.a lliOId~, ,Admir.affi Sir th.e' ov!erheated. b,u,dget 'under Icontrolli in fh!e ,Ma.r:kStan:hope; and Air Chief Marshal Sir I(over fo'ur ye'ars) de:m,anlded .as p,ar1 of t'he sho:rm term,;; But h.le ar.gues that the 'ha.p~,!e:ss Simon, Bryant-of givi.ng aid ,andl,comfort gO've.rnm.e:nt~s :liscal=a'uste'rity pillian~ the way' t'h!e MOD, 'was :run itn the ,p,ast lar,ge~y to the ,en,emy~But their c.on,cerns, a~tho'ugh Ministry' of De'ence (MO'D') h,ats som,eh,O'w ~ ex;p,iains the loss of budg'letary control ,His eX,presse d,at t,h e wron,g tlme'J are not. f'flVO to ,clos e an. 'unfunde'd, illitab,fulity of f38lbilllio:n prop(lsals. are des:ign,ed moO, ,imp!ro,v,e strate1($61 bilU,on) up to ,2'020~This week~Ju,sm b,elo'us,., As ~ong as c:.om'mitme-nts outstrip re= e''-o:u'r',Ii''',O(;" ,O-v'~An' 'D'r' F!ov~e n' .o--w~' m'- od,o,~ M' '01"", fo;re anno,un,cing a, major sha'ke-up of m:he g~,cle.ad,ership and .a.c,countabH,mt~ reduoe ~I .,', ~nfightin,g 'b,etwe'e'n the, serv~ces ,an,d w~Jl truggle to. Icope'~• w,ay his depttrtme,nt and th,e arm,ed fOJ.oes s
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N~.'HIE w. :,·aterfro,n. t. in ,B~~fast sta~d two T giant gantry cranes, silent reminders that the city was once horne to one of the world's 'biggest shipbuilders, At its peak Harland and Wolff employed 3.s,~OOOpeopill,€; to make the s· ~psthat linked Britain to its empire and defended it in wartime (as w"ellillias the doomed Titanic') ..In :2,0,03, with just 13,5 workers, the firm officially regis= ,·t··· ,'. d· alSasma ]~II ,.. " ,,' S' 'h'...i· . b ildi -'.... .. ' d b ".e:re·_ .... .. --". ~.'USln-eSSi'·' ]lP:U]lru.Jng h la moved on, leaving the skeletons of bygone pIOSp eri t:y' in its wake, Todav the, shipyard has found a new role building offshore wind turbines. its ·V.BlSm Paint Han has become a. film studio; 181sm'month 'Hrs"o', an Am erican broadcaster, signed 'up to shoot a second serie s of "Game of Thrones" there. Not far aw.aty~. Short Brothers, 'which made planes for the 'Wrm.ght brothers, is preparing to b uild sophisti tamed wings for new aircraft to be launched 'by its Canadian owner, Bombardu .. ~i- ,- '- To - hi -'I'.-. has C,h, " ier, NY,Ij,E iecnnoiogies =.1 as -. .osen -B-' 1 ue ,-, fast's revamped "Iuantc Quarmer"~as a centre-for developing g~.oba~ tra)ding systems .. Lm'ke, 'Other 01 dl m,a.·n·ufa,cturing strong" ,·h·o11ld' 'S' N': ,0' r~'h.t;!!·r·n'.' ]r·lo'l·~ni di ~'s" ·h·,'lI'-vin' 'g- ~"O' MOot'n': ,_. .1Il.. ..~ ... a , .. v'ent: its ,ec.onomy·-·b·ut with a. twi.st :F:rom
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as the kepublie '0.1' Ireland was attracting the Iikes 'Of IGoO:~Je- and Dell, its troubled n.. orthern neighbour found it tougher, despite offering low costs and. desirable skills, That has begun to. change-and not only because of economic turmoil in the south, Many businessmen praise Invest Northern Ireland, the agency chargedwith regional development, for pulling in highquality inward investment, espe cial 1y in {1-' nao(:e·; technology and business services .. , In the 12 'months to March It secured over . ". 0,0'''0': newjob (;"iIDO%'- of .. ·: P·-···I'a· yin 0 a'· :'f'ii.'-V-::-~ them.. b
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the prlva te-s ector ave rage" The· hitch is that t, under 'lEU rules, th,€ state financial aid that NO'fJ1hern Irelan d , uonca te d.'suer .'. ea s 'Wl~Jl en d..m 2013" h dea ··1I1m .. I bri Scotland Northern Ireland is now agitatin .. cut gto W.Gl@s +·t ate -, srnam .,'0 ns corporaltimono tax rae ..frrom B-," :~*.: 5 2.t: North Ea,st to something more like the 12.,5 % in Ireland, Na:ticuu1i altemge "With this tool WIE: will not only' .gt,owthe :S~itllFce~ 0 friJS Northern Ireland, economy but alsocontribute to the 'UI('S;,'!I S sys A·r1ene Foster, 'enterprise minister at Stormont, London may omists such as Esm .. ond Birnie· of Pricewaterh ouse Coopers, at consultmg firm, expe ct wel agree-if the province gives. up, some .. .0,f ns central-governmen t grant in €·xlacklustre economic growth at best, change, Others argue that inward investPanos Ltoulias.~ chief executive of O'U.,.. ment win anyway' 'be constrained bY' ecohis, a. venture-capital outfit that nurtures d .. .1" .. ter's -· c I~ spin-offs from Queen's University in Bel- n-om-~ilJi"> w' zoe elsewh 1~'r"Q a~'n''-' th at U~IS~ lii. ,. st n f;~ t.h ~i 11K'''5 n d.ige nou S entrep ron a UI'C" aI' _1(-,-",· v b·est asset is it's educated workers, so any gamble that imp erils the funding of public big' part 'Of the remedy Northern Ireland's universities turn out top-notch graduates services is a mistake.A decision is expectfunphysics, life sciences, computing and the ed from Whitehall in the: autumn, Can Northern Ireland regaie in the earlike-the basic stuff of start-up s, 'One of c Oubis's stars is Ander, founded in:1989 bya 'Iy 21Sm· entury a measu('€ of the economic .it."'" hysi cs·grad' u ate student !_,).; H'uah . C.ormlc an ~.1 .... , success it enjoyed In the early 2,oth? A, .ot n .~.,;;;'-' h.'.a.ngs on '!!fhl':-- .'a.nswer" I.'h·r' IC-:a~ Od,C '. "d:'·dl '~~ who h~t on, :ne'w imagm.ng telchnology~ Ane :( .. ,18 .. ~'h'.. Ji,: mm,!J[e ..1'.. '_ I,a,. ::. 'h "s' .. dor w,ent pu.hlic in. 2'00'4 a.nd is .now' va~·ue·d ..c' ~I~·S··S''.~ai, gro,=w·:.-····n: ·S' I 'a"'-w""-C'lf" a:·'o,~t'n'e* ,d;;is:,·C·r-l··m·':·· 'I "',' l . '. . at £19s:m 1(;$3141m),. Shee·na :lewis", an acm~ n·8lhon. ha.ve ta m~tl~n.e ft·e ct,. p e.r h a.PIS as ·at n~~ thie late: 19'16,OS until th'l~ p ea,ce d,e,aJ of 19'9'8 de:milc b:io~ogis,t, ma.un,c:h,e,d o'ew' dfu.agn.osti.c: S'ult~ SU'ppiort an1:ong C,at-h.oli.cs ~Ot :reu'ntfi.~· t:lf:sts for male ~.nfertnity·ru.nMay~;shlf: g,ays ·cation 'with Ireland has decH.nled,. B:ut W'Olssee:n to m;ake roo,t~the 'Troubles bmi.ted. many ·wor:king·=(:ru.ass :P'.rot-estant b"oys now hig'h=q'uality :i:nwardl inv·lestment~. stifte d i.n= sh.e is alrea"dy getting in.q.ujries from lndia an.d IChin,at~ fe el dis,e·nfr.an,chis,e d; ,as r!f!lcent vffi.olen·ce i.n diige-no'us !enmr,epre-n.eurs an,d p,rompted :m,a.:ny 0 f 'Ulster;,s a b I.est ,o~lIspr:ing to- :t1e-e:~ :Bu.t sUlch firms; ho'wev'er success:ful~of- ,e·ast B,e]fast suggests~ Mo,re .a nd b'let.ter jiobs..~ Th,e B;rimish gove·:mm.e·nt threw mo;ne'Y a.m ier a. lliimimed number of jobs: An,dor em- .and 'rising iving' standlards" m,a.y not be ,en.ough, to ·b.anish the· se,cUltd.atn divi!de·.~but 'th e place in th,e b,ope 0 f easm:n,g se'lctarru,an ploys only 3-oo·people.,;So fQ.rmatn~,fbre-~.gn. - - -- - - - - ; ..': ~d"1 . . - - _.,te:nsions and luri'ng t:he pro,vi'nce';s pol itf-· dmr,ect tnV'€s.tolent is th·e;fe·a.1key: In the p"a;sm" t'h--. ell ab-I~sen:c'e,CO'u1 d' we. 1m WM,e:n ]It. a.,galll". .cians. to mh,e'fl!ego ea.ting ta bl e~
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shadows loom over English towns
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stores offering payday moans" 'The former prime minister Ide= stroyed British industry to crush powerful unions, Mr Lawton .c:'harges .above a.ll Mr Scar.g:HM's N,ation .. Unio:n of Min,ewo:ik:e.rs" al Lik,e most M,exb'OI.a,ugh illoca~.s,Bageh.ot: i'nterview'If:,d this 'w'le,ek, hie ba,ck,ed a b'ru,g Datru,on,al strike c.aJ]e,d ~OIJune 30th, by' tea'ch,ers and othe'r ]pu'bli!c=s.-ecto:r 'W1ions agaj_nst ,c.hanges to thej~r pensfuon.s and .a riSf' i'n t~h.etrr.etirem,en,1 , ,~ge to 66,., 'Trade-uni,o:n, loyalmy runs deepl mn Mexborough,; whose, locaL M" is. Ed MU:ib,and,~th,e cu'rr,ent 'La,'bour me,ad.e'r~ So does ,a se:ns'e of physica.l solidarity: "n M,exboro:ugh,~ 16,6 is old". 'Th:e ,hig'h str~et '. ,. ~ .. d W h '. "'lrrs 'WIt' h em.e,ctru; t'h r,e,e=w ' ee' .e- , scoote:rs, ca.rrymng stJ.CK=th" I mn ,ex:=min"ers looking' a,,deca.'de oillde:rtha:n their'y'ears" HP'eopm,e~ ar'en"t going to get to ret ire.,.'"p,redmcts Christi.ne Barter, a fo:rm,er ,de'ntalli re= ,ceptionist Alatn Hin,ch,clliiffe~ a r-emjre,d lorry drfuv'er. now hun,ched i.n a Slcoote[~ fag in han,d. :rasps::, '''They didn~t ,complain ab'o.ut the ~hGi 1ll.IL'-,,:.._ ,'c ' PIQifl'plli 'ct: y~inu y' 0' 'Wl- u 1i'n,Ill, m-- ;in.l9'$ an' 'd Cl"iQ,l2jj'I' w: O,,¥,1Irs ,dl"II"t__-th-' .i9y'?'~' Yet Mr ScargiU'-whose ob"dura(:y and militan.cy lied 'h~.smin'ers t.o ,crushing defe,at-',dso haunts M,exborough,~ Backing' 60r th,e strilt,e is fre'qu,e'ntIy' temp,er-e"d w'ith, a.nx~,ety that it wIn ,do lh'lO good;; A'n ex-min,er (u'tlen y,ears dow,n the Manv,efS 'pimU) worr.i.e'S mh,at p'u'billfuc-s,ector 'unm,ons a.r~ m,a.king- ,at grav,e mills.take~!i'I'-lnthe ~'8olswie had, th.e min,eIS'~ str~ke',~an,d 'w'hat ca'm'e ou,t.of tha.t? N'o:thing~'" Ev'en J ohn 'Cowar,d~,thie mocal divisiona~ s.ecret.ary' o,f' th,e N'a.tio:n,a.M Un~ i.o:n,of Teach,e:rs,~ one o.f ili.e' unions be:hind fu.e June' lofh std.k!e; admits that securing- P'Ubi~fucupp,ort:is a i(:ham~e·nge., 'Tile 19,5OS ,are re= s m,em'b,erled w,imh bitterness, not tJilLm,p!haUsm; he says::: m'h.'eera is seen as a civil war~ ".an,d ,at cJ1rvffi.ID.'wa.r fuam:w'e most"~" S'u,ch w,ary" paj,nful memories ex.te'nd, far beyond spots ln~,e Me-x'borough m,o. th,e se·a.mof pow'er ID:n Westmi'nst!er;; Me'mories of
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two long-retired enemies: Margaret Thatcher and Arthur Scargill, re,('I'PGi ti ,:<lIlc) rhGiff',o rmer 'p rim Gim ]" 1" st !~:r ,QJ[', d· a m ~il 1,;;(1,_1, lJi.1.,, lea' d-Gir c vely n an ' _:_ ners' un ~on '.~,_ ',_,\_.. 1 1,' . . .f whose clash during the miners' strike 0 :1984· and 1985 'was. a. turn~ paint inB ri nsh in d u strial relations, ng Mexborough wil] shield few' tears when Lady Thatcher dies; says Howard Lawton, ,aformer steelworker shopping 'in the high street, a bleak strip lined w-ith charity and discount shop sand
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't'h ' ·.~1,8-: ~., .t =,e19. osuesl~ have, 0'0. ,d!esire to re'visU' th,at de',cad,e4 Eric Pickl e's, now' th,e Tory c,ommunitm,e's and. ~.oc,al government secr,€t,ary~ 'w,as a po'i ftician mn ,th e n.OI -t'h- ern.',- (][~t,,·aIf' ']8-"1,fa. ,d·Jl.O~U,ln *'h-- '_1'°;, .-. H, Iie ID.S ,d- evoe:- d':- Tlh-- lh,C-·h-- : ~', .. -. ',7, -:" , ,.', ,-. y ~ -- - . t::--.. ,~.. ...;I :'.- lie1900s~ -. ~ ~- ,at: -, - -it ~:r-~'t,Q W .-:_-,:::·~~t'h.. '". ,~ p,o,r'tr,~1 ~it ,0,'f: hl'I' c' 'h,Qr·-"o. "1. ~,-Nin'hilS- III""\'m_: B U h~' ~·'n· C~' e'IIj'ii.'m· I c.o:mmunHie's "~sort of dis,81p'pe,ared fr.a,m th,e :ma.p,'~'afie''f'th:e miln= e'ts' strik,e~Som,e 'Tory i).'ctivists aI,e ,gu'ng,-,ho ab'o'ut th.e min,ers~ stIID.te but he is not, sayfflng: ""[ ,fin,d th.e ,m'ost viS'Clf:raill wer'e chUdlr.e:n. th'en~. or :n,ot:-ev'e'n 'bo:rn,/'. Lor,d I{inno,ck, th,e ,Lalbour. leader ID from -. .. , 1983 to 1992~caill~sthe, Th,atm,cher gove.rnme.nt ID,oathsome 'J":.1 '0.1' ap= pe',ar.ing not to "'gi,v,e a d,am:n, a'bout the oonsequen,cest~ of wren,chin,g' ,eCl()DOmm,C,chan,g',e", BUI, he bla.mes Mr Scarg~nfor refusJn,g: deals that c:o:uld, h,a,v',e s,ave d some, 'pro,fit-B.ble mi'n,€s.~ ~jiThatcher ,an,d. Slcar'" 0'1"1]1Jl d,Q'if! .;:'!i:['V .t;!i'._, ,ch'" o~'hQ'r' n ,v" - 0' d''',_ ...:;;.. d~id'n h· ~ s··~a'~ s.~ .. ~ ,d' .;:'!i"a: n:b ..... y. ls,o;· 10' . y Th,e '19'8a,s" :in g,ome p'8rts of 'B'ritain" dfud feel Uke' ,at cfflv~.m ar~ It w 'was. one tha.t the' 'Th,8lh::her governme'nt 'had to wID~n,. ao,d victory e:nd,ed ,dec8.'d.,es of nati.onal declin,e~ 8;ut ,after at civil w,ar~,nob,ody ~Id ~II~.':r.ate'~"'-'Ie,fltls '. h p'e:op Ie- slens,e t- Slnstln,ctlv'le= Th' l8 '. ru""'" d e'cent s h- OUm'~, ceJle'b . ly~Th'e gove rn:m.e nt is r.mght to be: cautio'us: th,e ,cur.rent m.ood of p'ubbc. callim is a sma]~ mTItra.,cllie·~ Som.e unilo:ns s.eem b,!ent on, co,n'~ fr()ntatmon,~, a:mas.;; I,hey sh!ould b,ewan~',~and Ie-.av,et.hel9'80s, an un'" hap,py decad,e~to its :ghosts~ •
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Privatising peace
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Also in this sectien

Governments are Increasingly handing over the earIDy stages of conflict, resoIDuti.on to independent erganlsations

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SMA'RT'.8?lf course hotel in.southern Norway IS not where you. would expect to bump in, tn, a couple of Afghan, TaU,= ban ..But at the Oslo Forum Network of Me'=' diators no one 'batted a:n,eyeltd, For once, an earnest discussion on "Ialking to the Taliban't+scheduled on June 23rd; the day after Barack Obama announced he-would 'be pulli .. 3:].,00"0 troops nut of Afghaning stan by next year+actually 'meant talking to real-life 'Ialiban, T'he forum, now in its ninth year.is host= ed by the Norwegian Ministry' of Foreign Affairs and the' Geneva-based Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HDI)" It brings together high-powered professional peace negotiators to swap ideas about current eo ntli cts andlearn from past successes and failures, More fundamentally the existenceof the forum marks a shift in the w,a:y diplomats and others. go about trying to so lve conflicts th a.t: shatter live's and communities in different parts of the world. ,-,T'h'- U''nr e :_',: anons, S nu wid ·,·-···1,·- -- as . ,e '_.nit ed Nation - still WI) e y 'seen. 1-' the go-to organisation for peacemaking, ~.s hobbled in what it can do 'by' competing politica] agendas, while America's appet~te for elb,ow-twru.sUng diplom.aJA:Y has 'wa.ned~ Sman,er co·untries that have sple-' Ci .. lU sled in m e di,ati on, such ,atS mh e SCBlndm:-' B navfans and Sw~tzerla'nd) h.Blv,e be'!com,e mor,e risk=,8[v'ierse a,b"out enga,g~~ngwith armed gr.oups~The :re·sullitis th,8[t certain, type·s of diplomacy an~ b'ecomin,g p,riv,a=

organisations IN'· __.' '~,,'o;!e'\ C'IO' 'm·· with 'I,O··'IIi"\'tc· in a ,d' g-. ivin.'',0 and I . ~, ai .. .0' ~ . i:3J., ·._ disaste r relief are p laying an eve r gre-at er role in, conflict re S elution .. In what has become a crowded field, the biggest players are: the Crisis Management Ininattve '(cMm) based. mn Helsinki and founded in 20"0,0 by Martti Ahtisaari, a former ._- . en.. o.f'-- , ],n1,an,d mh.18 Cart .. ,pres]. - ,t id 'F'~ . a.rer 'C'-~i~'"re s c-'",on flier R:,'....:::,··· ..,~. t"; " 'n,..., '...en (t.. -. 1·~ ·.eSO!1UIon J[,1.ogramme which helped wmjimmy Carter the Nobel p eace prize in 20,0,2;.; th e Congre ss-funde d but independent United, States Institute of Peace !(USl'); and lHD~whichwas establishe d in 1999 b,y Martin Griffiths, a British diplomat and former UN assistant secretary-general. HD started out with the idea of promot~ '. ~ ~ ~t I' i'l -I' .~ I '.~--l: mg mnova t' ion m hi'umannanan mterven tion ..:l,. b.. t quickly decid ed to cone.entrate u d u. .. U ~:.JIl\ly .~~...,;; a m.e. :! ati d .. ,''-.<iI1I,~, : olutk .'- . 's on. med_lBl -mon ,an.· . OOnJllUCll, reso, u ] on" Its first engagement was an attempt to mediate between the g'O'vlernm,ent of Indonesia and Free Aceh, a movement fighting for the region's independence ..After mapping out a peace process and presiding over many J:, ,._'!(...\;.! ..... mo nths '.'of n ezotiations 'RD' succeeded in gett~ng both pa,rties to 'Geneva in 200,2, to sign an. a.greement to. st.'op ha.stilities", ]t ~I,_-: "t!....::d· Lor e,ss i' .' ~,-:- 1,·1 ~'h : -. ] ,,' ho e -!~eI ~,ase. 'C ·ill··.' ,~.: ~'h, an S]X mon~, "'s.., n 't...1::- a 'f~,~--math of th,€ tsnnam'i :in D€H:e,m'ber '200'4" .. .. d" HD' trme d" ,a.ga.mn ,eve'nlula '1'-1hIan-lng ov'e-r ~ ,Y the p,roce'ss to C:M.lt 'whh::h 'man,a.g,ed to s·e-Icur!e at I)eac'e a,greeme',nt ,eight mo.nths lcd,er~
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director, Michael Vati kiotis, says was partly due to undere stimating the pres= sures on the Indonesian government from the army+was followed byafallowperiod for HD'", Its only main, projects were at long, frustrating attempt to pave th,e way fer reform and dialogue in My,~nm,ar and a more successfulmission to initiatetalks between the government of Nepa and the Maoist guerrillas that eventually led to an India-brokered peace agreement in 2;.'OQII6, •. Yet since 20,05. HD! has been 'busy working in many of the world's most violent places, in !1",.1Il1 .. ,I_ill .r .....th:1 !~: Ph ~III-I· P I" n S~. S0 m ali th P r clu ding '. Central African Republic and Sudan, Asked by' Kofi Annan to support his;reconcili a.tion efforts in Kenyal after the disp u t,ed 2'0,07 ie ection, HD' helped bring about the power-sharing agreement that put an end to the Inter-tribal violence that had ~I" ctaimecd over 14.000 1-+rve s~ judging the achievements of HID and tts peers is.inherently difficult, In many cases they take on long-running arguments b',e= tween parties th at have not previously shown much interest in. finding at solution to th.e:ir ,druffere:n.c'es;, SUlcc:.esses ,are ofte n De,eting" ICe-as efire aglIieem,ents ca.'n lead toO, m.a·f!e far-re,tlchrung d.fa.lliogu!€s or th,ey' Cf:l.'n quickl 'y b're,ak d.own~ When th,ere m.sS'UC'-' ,cess ,as Mr VEuJiki.otis :points. ou.t~ c!fuients prefer to tal~,eth,e ,c[iedit t.hems,emves r.ather than acknowJe:dge- fhe .rolli!eof the m!edila= ....
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• tion ..Secrecy is a condition of many of the shared 'by many' of those at: the Oslo Forum, tast year the American SUPJe:me engagements :HD takes on", Court upheld a contentious section of the Making things even more' difficult, priviid! '.' ,g[. 'V',,~' ..•. a ~' ]la.w. giving "material ate' conflict-resoluti on outfits--unli ke Patriot A'ct thas outlaws 6 ;_:;, supp ort" to de slgnate d terrorist groups, instates or even the 'UN-'are "weak" rather than "strong" mediators, They cannot im- eluding "expert advice or assistance", Since the law applies outside America, this pose sanctions on warring' parties, except ," ib 'd_"1 " m.e.atns ~. at ' _ aB:~s . ~th' by walking away (which is not easy' if this ,. ',. th,at: c.u n.tact WL l_,pros cr~1 e_ o.r.ga means losing funding). And to get a dver- nisations could leave mediators open to prosecution, More than 40 NGO bigwigs, sanes to. implement what has been agreed mediators have nothing oth er than the re- W ho fear that the court's decision is. chilling th,e efforts of peacemakers, have alward of peace itself as encouragement, Illary C-,~I1i'n. ." '~. A,.' .m,~..eri.ton ~u· _ .' ,JIJ.JIl. Another concern is the effect of competi- read -y.-:- petition ed H' ,JIlJl!. tion between mediation organisations, ca's secretary of state ..Mr Vatikiotis is more The scramble to be involved in, Darfur ls ,sanguine ,',' arguing that ' It :it, not reallv in ' ,_' "'_' _', " y ',. meant duplication of effort and, accusa- America's interest to come down hard .0'0 tions of unseemly touting f-or business, mediators. "It's just another riskthat has to The job of reconciling triba] factions in be managed." • post-Q addafiLibya is lil{,e~y,obe contested t with equal vigour, I! Yet private me diators ,a1.5 o 'have sub- V , o,e'nt extremtsts stan tial advantages over their state equi Vatlents, They' lack the po itical baggage' t ,at diplomats carry which sometimes means warring parties are 'more willing to talk to Jl •at IS 5 them ...They are nom bogged down 'by official caution and bureaucracy, so they can OlUBILIN move fast ,and be' ere at ive '.'Above all, they' Their hatred may' be different" but it has can take bigger risks over whom they will slmilarroots talk to and, in what circumstances, Often state effie ials are not allowed m C) have contact with armed groups or terrorist S; either extremists and, someone who was once .at for legal reasons or because of fears that member of a violent street gang, I:m is rarer this would confer legitlmacy (American and Buropean diplomats do not talk offi- still for them to be join,e,d, by' a surviver of th e' t ieno lh"l5 ,a.t-'I~a.'CJl{S,on- .''In'lLJO'n dontmn :2 0", 'B' "U It ,- lst I!" ~l=".· .n ·,'on '0:5 ~. cially to Hamas, for examp. e), HD' started O'ut working mainly o'n soc-·caned, ~~Traick nnJune 27mh the'y aJllis.h,arled ,8. stag:;e in :Du'b'On.e'" ·mle,dia~Jio:n. irnv'olvin:g' dipmom,at1cy' ,at Un ,at ,at oonfe're'nce to dtslcus.s violent iexfrom 19 gov'e-.rnm en t me-vel ~ :B'ut 1\iIr' Va ~il~iotis :n.O'w' tremis.m w]th around, 60, ~~.formeIsu thinks t'ha.t ""Ttac~{'Tw';Q ~~itn~.tila s,~ hfuch eO'untries and a swath.e of survivors .. tiv'e 'W , worlk: through other (:h,ann.e~.s 'wh,en, o'ffi~ Tlhe m.eeting w,as arrange'd. by Go,o,g]le !eial o'n,es are blolcke;d; ca.n.smooth mhe w.C!y' Id,eas;~,thJ! intern!et ,gianfs n,ew t:hin'k~tankt or '''think/do tank"'~as it likes to' d,eslcrib,e itto. m'ore ~O'rmaJ .p ealce ta:n~:s.., 'The Norwegian govern'mlent' is H:DI'S self. IGoo,gle; says Eric Schmidt" its. chatirb'igg,est donol pl(nv].ding n,early half mts ,an- m an; is tryi:n.g to c!ome 'up, with :tdleas. to nual fun,ding of around $ism" Norway ha.ld m,al{!e the world a. b"emter plalce-s:uch, as the Sum'mit Ag,a m:n sm' Vio lent Ext:r,emm,sm (SAVE) a torrid tfume tryin:g' to 'me,diale' bletwee:n ~he Tamjl Tigers ,and th,e Sri. Lankan g'O'v"~' inDu.bUn~ lernment It endlf:d up Dieing criticised, for Iclin,ging t:o'o llio.n.g:to a process tha.t .had ble= {:om,ediscre diled by th.e Tigers'~lac~{ seri~ of lOll,S n,e,gotfua.mmngint ent U]f yO'u, are :not prepar1ed mo take ris:ks,~ yo'u should stay out,,';' Jona:s Ga.hr Smore,~ N.o,rw,ay's foreign. minister:, says of th,e c'onflict-I,es,o~u~ionbus:iness.~ B'um: ie a~gules th,at · h rep·utatID.onam risks ,canlbe red,u,ee"d b,y work= iing with .o,r.ga.nis.atio:ns Uke' HD't w:hich he reg.a'rds as, a, "~highly' sldHe,d s~r.81te'gic partnet"'~ About,a thirid of the, $-10om ,iye'a.r hils dep,atrtm'ent sp,ends O.n ,conflict resolu,~ ~"1"0 n oro.l9;c" '!to N GO' S HI dJj"" sm' l' S S S th"t e .w..: ' Gil' ~;I a d that :media.tors h,a've 'be,com,e t:.oo num'ellOll,S or that t'he mon,ey may not be wemm splent "~Th,ere~se'no,ugh co;nfi'ict ,a.'nd suffer~ng ,for ,at~l,.;the, s,ays ..'!"We have a. sryst,em th,at measures p:rogress and which holds ourin= l,ermOc,utors to ,acc:ou·nt.,'" IOln,e nag'gmn,g worry~ :how!ev'e..r:" was
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cade. "Ihey hate o UI freedoms," sai d George Bush 'by wayof explanation for the attacks of September nth 20"01~ In, reality the motivations that drive people into 'ex= tremist groups are fat' more complex, The "formers" had much in common. Both, Yasmin Mulbocus, once a member of al-Muhajiroun, an, lslamist outfit in Br~.ta~, n and Sammy Rangel, who used to be in the ,ManiBl!C Latin Disciples, a Chicago gang, spoke 10£ abuse they suffered as children. Ms M'ulb,oCllS'J whose father was, Pushtun end whose mother 'W.t1.S from Guyana, and Ben Owens" another forme-r gang member whose ancestry is a. blend of Cherokee Native Ameri earn and, African- Ameri can, both struggle d. 'with defining th eir md.e n titie s. Others described absene fathers, households plagued 'by a Icoholism, lonely tee-nage- years and their frustrated desire to belong, For some, 'most notably those, who had 'been, Involved in Is amist groups, ideology played an important and complex role, Abu Munrasir, the headof an Islamic charity in Britain, argues that manyjihadists are re spending t.o [leal in ji ustices ito the world, Maajid Nawaz was once a senior member of Hizb ut-Tahrir, an intema tion al Islamist movement and spent almost four years in an Egyplti.arn prison ..He went on, to. found the 'QulmIia.m Foundation, ,at counter-extremi sm thi nk-tank tha t continue s his figh t -with peaceful methods .. Such transformations, ta.ke, tm'm,e.. Many a.t thlE: confenenc,e mike ne,d it to th,e tor~,u,'ous prOC'fSS .of c:o:nfJlu,ering a.dd'ictilon,. S.o,mie~ such as Susatn CrU'Zt. a. .former gang me:m.~ 'ey' .II!.li b·or no'w 'wo'I'k', 'I'n ~rh' e world, "~thO h·av'o.l·Gilf~,t· 'beh:i:nd", try.in,g: to ya.n·k nth ers 0 ut of' it., Dlm'hers ,are som,etim,es thre'atened by the groups t'h,e'y 'belong,ed t.o~T~J~ leyden~ oniOe a. whmte' s,uprlem,acism',~,convin!ce·d '91 p,eo:pll~ to b,e,come skilnhea,ds 'wh,en he 'was. on,e~So far~, hlas p1e:rsu,ad,ed 89 to leav'e- the- m.o,ve= :hle me'nt He is ,determined to :m.am:,eh.his re. cord,~t'hen b"ea.t it te':nJold" He h,ats bleen brand.ed, a traitor 'by hits for.mer comrades,., Prled~.ctabl~ Jared Cohlen~ who heads G,oo!gle Ideas; ~ lli{een ~:'oromote the rollile of s p technology in this battle~ Sugg,est~o:ns :from, those amth,e confere:n.c,e inclu,dled. ,an o:nlinle e·ncyclo,:p,edi.a. t,o de'bunk ~:h:e n.ttlrr.ad,v,es of extr,emist ,gOO'UPIS; a. WikiKoran to offer djffe're'nt int.erpretations o,f' s.crilptute ,and. ,en.= c:.o;ur.ag·,ede bate; and. a vmlde'o game slet mn th e ,gan.g- worilld, w:he-te the w'ilmin,g strategy wO'uld re1q-u'ire get~in.g',char,acters t.o. ab a-n= d,on t'heir thu,g,gish. 'ways~ T'his is thle first tim,e GoogMe h,as or.ga,n~ ise,d, sUlch a ,conre re:n.c.e." Mnvitru.ng form e:r skinhe·a.ds",jiihadlists a.nd, gang members to explore, how to p'le'vent others going dO'wn thos,!e paths is oertai'nmy ,8.. goo,d ',dlea., lB'ut to solv·.e the 'pr,oblem. of v]iollile:nt ,ex,tremism.~ c]le:v'e:rt,echnoio:gy and, alg'oritthms are, only a sidesho'w~
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ent '" or,porth] O.n ,(.'C":I·C·')' a saver na. ._ .. -h' ~': eign-wealth fund", has the third-largest .' S" bi . . sta k e m 'Songmrcd E --states, W rc h contro ill s Canary Wharf Group, the property fum behind the (lowers that dominate the city's ''',i' -,' eastern sk y.lime, ClC may soon b.eeome an investor in the Citigroup building, anothe-r landmark skyscraper, which, ts for sale. Ba ,,]l,~.;:) Tih,1Q!; n '1~0"(-' JE: glan.,d 'I' n 10' r yet Chineseowned 'bum it is increasingly encircled by Chrinese ban '~hr;' W ."," l , a V~ bought or whlc hl' _'" - - - ed ~b - -~'.... ."t' (.- . .. 1ease" a OUI, 3,OO,~ooosq,u:are~ f'"I eel ,:2, 8,,000 square :metre s) of offi c:e sp,3[ce' sin ce the' 61'=' nanci.al crisis~ :B,ank .of 'China, 'w'hi,ch h,as been in .lo:n;don SID~n(:e' 192'9" h,as :ree,en,tly' m,ov,e:d into p~,us;hnew' h,e,atdlquarter.s that ov'!e~rID,oo the: Ice.ntram 'b,ank. Dlown t'h,e roald~, k in, King 'WiUm,atm Stre et; th,e b uil ders aIle at: 'wo.rk insid,e the future home, of ['CBC,,~itn'·' a the:r state'·ow'n,e d giant. SuCh vls1ble' 's,i ,EJ of 'Chtnese e,:n,cro,tlch·, ons mie,n~:will feed the worries of m,any E'uro,= p1e.ans" A p,a11e.o,n,ducte'd for the B,'H,C Wo.r~,d S,ervice in, ,M!an::h foun,d rising' (l(lnce:rn
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• three categories (even if some of these disttnctions ere fuzzier in China than elsewhere) ~ First, there are, financi ad, mvestments by' the state, through bodies such. as C IC and the Stat te Admintstration of Foreign Exchange (S,AFE), which looks, after the country's vast (,0reign re serves, Second- th-IQ'r is private in vestment '~ h"Y"-_ I· . _ II!'II,... . _ "'" II!, ,"'", • ,_ wealthy individuals an d, gradually; private-e quity firms, Third; there ~ the ads vance of corporate- China, Start 'with, the official flows, 'Th,e data on what China invests in are sketchy 'but two things at least are clear: China has a stated d,Etsi.r,€ to diversify away from dollar assets. and th'€ e'UJlOzone is the natural alternative, Simon Derrick, a. currency' analyst at B,NY Mellon, an American bank, reckons that around a quarter of China's ss trillionplus of re SIe:rV!f;S .are now in euro-d enominated assets, Glven the recent pace of aceumulation+around $·2,00, billion a quarterthat would suggest that $lso, bi lion-zoo billion of Chinese reserves have found their way to the euro zone since last summer ..(Another few billion wUI have gone into sterling-denominatedassets.l Inflows on that: scale would help to explain why' the euro has continued to de better than many expected given the zone's sovereign-debt crisis, But they may also signal weakne ss tOI come, China 's deslre to slow the rat,€,;,at which it builds reserves may slac ten demand for euro-denominated assets, uThat ,coui dl m'ean ra.dfucal ].y dlfte:rent Vd.1 'ues. for the euro,~;;' says Mr 'Die:r.rlck., How much oflicial Chru.'n'es,e'money' 'has fou'n,d its w,ay' ~~nto'perip,hIE:ral eu:r,o=zone 'co'untri'es is a :m.at.ter of guesswo:rk", St'le= p,hlen Jen of SLJ Macro Partners.~ .a h'E:,dge fu'nd", thin1:s tha.'t: the Chin,ese ma.y ·ha·ve
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countries above those of other creditors, Although China's foreign -exchange reserves have ~ argely gone into govemm ent and quasi-government debt, not all of' them have, An analysis by Tke' ECOl1Jomis[ of SAFE'~S,holdings of 'If'T'S'E 100, companies shows that it 'holds stakes worth around ru.6 billion 1(,$18~6billion), sprinkled across two-thirds of the :i.nd ex, That translates to a m~ttle under 1'% of th e total value of the index, with, energy, non-cyclical consumer stocks and basic m aterials to the fore (s,e ,e; chart ::d~T:he Chmese are :far less visible mn other European markets" although they may be b,uyi'ng shares via, third parties,
CIC transit gloria Officials want to diversify' furthe r into real assets, including companies. eTC; will reporte dly be h.. anded another $lO"O bilUOn-,l{}O billion of reserves to Invest, for

example, and some of that money will find 'its 'W,81y' to Europe. But the pace ~slikely to be measured, Investments by the stat,€ C,B_'n be politically sensitive Many of 'CIC~';S bets are made via third-party manegers. Where it: does hold direct stakes, it has so far shown little Inclination to interfere in the running of companies, CI'C'S approach to property investment, for instance, has been to ally itself with experienced partners, through Canary Wharf Group, on long-term projects in, the continent's 'most developed market, Via th,€! group the Chinese also have an inler,est in an. oJiic,e' d,evelliop'm'ent' in. liond.'on kn.'own as th1e 'Walkie= JaUcie" which 'w·nm fl.Ot' ope:n u'ntil 2014 and, will then 'ne'e,d time to h,e let. ,other so'v·ere:ign=we.a~lh fun.d S ,might ta~~kb'O'ut a. thre'e =to-fiv·e~year a pb~,~, a, :prop,.erty c.onsu~tant, but '''eIe: says wou~ldn~t 't:el~you [the:ir tm'm etalble1 and if b!e,e:n 'buym,n,g as mUlch sov',eI1ei,gn, debt flio:m, t:h.ey dffidl; th'e answer w'ould 'b,e thatt the·ytH, stru:ggUn,:g sta.tes, as th,e Europ,ean Centram hQ~,d it for ,ev',e:r~~'~ B,ank h~~C,B) haS4 'Ib,eir 'motmv,es, m,ay be For Us partners CIC;S Bl~tm,ctID.on,s ar,e obvio'us~ As 'w',elm as t'h,at blg pot of m.on,ey, ilt pa.rtly polilt~.cam: Mr Jen tartly' o'bs,erv,e~s that m,ay bring in the Chinese occup,ile'rs of to.= the 'Europe,ans have had nothing to say on ~he val-u,e of the: yUlan r.e,eent'iy ..But th1ere is m.orIOW~ iProp,'ert,y consluta:n.ts al:ready' re~ (:ommercialli lo.gj.·c,.~:,oo::: Spl,anish 'bonds,. say~ port rising n.umb,;e:rs of inquiries from Chi= promis,e a nice return, if' you think t'he de·bt n.es,e co·mpa:ni.es about ,office, space~ ,crisis willli ,g'o no furtheI~ Tl1ere is .a. limit 'to the l~gtfsse;o lExu'berCMna's slice of Lon.don ,a.nt Spal1i.s~h ann,ouncemen,ts th,at mhe Ch!.sAfrIEr s hold] ng:s of FrS E: 100 'stockS',j lCltest f.b n n,ese' 'w'ere' ,albo,ut to plump, mo'ne'y mn.to ~:h,e countty~s m[loubme,d s,~vings banks, we:re 'qUl"c]k-ly s'lapped do---n H10pes ~-ora fl~ ' I' -' ... :' ·1'"W'ood ,of IChin,es,e capital int.o IGrele: ce have n,ot yet Ene'rgy m,ateIialised,~ T,he m.ost :p,r,o:mine:nt d.eal is .a Co IflS,lLIm·er ( mJ\!}"C)r~ll'(t{) ,con,c)es.silon, for ,C()S,CO P.acilj.c,. a. stah~:= 1o.s~ Ba:stc: mat-en a [;S, own,ed ship:pin,g an,d. p·orts giant,. to ron ,a lo.'gl termi.nal ,atth-e I)-ort ofPi.rae:us .and per:ha.ps ~o. build an.other~ But far rro,m b"eing an 0l)~ 10.3,1 Finarndal po:rtunist~,c ass,em g:rab, .it was a:rrange,d in, 10.,6] Urtl[ities 20"07 a.t 'boom'-ti:me- prices,., 'Mn gove-rnme'nt(.0 ns.um,er ~ bond m,arkems., 'China.~s su:pp"ort :for w'o'b'(cydj:Col) hIler states, 'ma'y 'well dw'indl,e as 2'013 ,ge:ts '1.1~ lechnollogy, '% of limarket n1earer: th,e,n ,at n,ew euro=zo:n,e so,v,er.eign= taJpitalisaticl1l . 10.31 In du stria [ ,d1ebt fun,d willl b"e able t,o. promote: ~he ,claims of Europ,ea:n ,governm,en.ts. on som.e
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]ns;i ders think '0 I c will even tually inve st :in accommodation for students, which. may 'be filled by Chinese youngsters attending Briti sh universi mID.iI~'S" If the flow of state capita] to Europ e is relatively advanced, the arrival of private mainland capital is at younger phenomenon, ,A,recent survey lby Bamn:& Company, a consul tancy, and China Merchants Bank estimated that the inve stible wealth of Chinese individuals was 62 trillion yuan 0'9,.:6-rillion) and that' the number of peot ple with investible assets worth more than 10:m y-uan would come close to 600,00"0 this year ..'They are Increasingly ready to,put some of their money abroad. According to Iohnson Chng of Bain, rich, Chinese have doubled the proporti on. of their portfolios invested abroad from '10 % in 2.009 to 20,% this year, Most of that goes to Hong Kong and S~,n-' gapore, but some of it finds its way' to Eu~'n· c"o:n· trols ~x~ bu' t '-w- -c,~th· 0 -~ st I'Oip~ Exch JJlLa much liquidity sloshing around China at the moment, approval has become easier to get, Property the asset of choice for Chine s'e investors, is again the fo CUB and Lon~ 1'. '. europe, d IlS again th e prime target In E _on .. thanks to the weakness of sterling, a friendly tax regime and, often plans to give children a British education, The, m ai nl and Chinese are- th e faste stgrowing group among foreign bUY'€!'fS of the dearest new property in central London, says Iames Thomas of jones Lang LaSalle, a. pr,opeI~y consulta .. cy~,R,oa,dsh,ows n to pr,omote d,~velliopme'nts. m,n London that 'would previously- hav'e sto:pp'e:,d at Hong l{o,ng ,an,d Sfrnga,pore ,are now ~ak~~ngin th,e: m,ainmand,~ with Chinlese' banks a.nd West= e.rn maw firmsj,oi:ning' in to offe-r pIus-pie ctiv'li! 'buyers tips ,on financing: ,and tax;; Som,e' a.re ,afm,er comm,erc.i aJ. in vest:m.e'nts~ S'iqi Zhang, 'who -runs the London arm of Ce]esUa.m G abe', ,at sm,aU pl~o:p,erty c:.on,suitan,cy aim,e d, a,tmainman d b,uyers" re= :ports lots of int.er,est in :resta.urants~ h.o:t1eis an.d b,a.rs ~h:att,can ~ru,owoff cash ,as :p.art of an :inv'e,stm.e,ntp"o.rtfoU.o .. T:he· flow 'Of p:rivate· capit.a~, ~.sn,ot j 'ust d:r~,v,en,'by :in,dJivid,u.. 'we:alth" however~ P,e:r= al ha.ps the most sensiU,ve- area of IChina.'~s :mallch is :in t:he; Icorpo:r.ate are:n.a~,as IChin ese fir,ms and th,eir'fin,a:n,cm.;ers ~o,ok :a:bro,ad~ I,he im,:portanoe; of d,~ve ope,d Wes~',ern e(Jonomies "n this jilro'Ces.s ShO·UI,d not b,e ex,agglera.t.ed,,, Chil'na, has margl~ly con,oen ~ra.t= ed t,o date ,on Asia:n" ,Afd.can and La.tin Am:erfucan, :hlv·es,t.m'f,nts th:at se,cure ,en:ergy sU'p'pliles .and natural resources,., Europ'f: 'is a m,a,rlcet w:h,e.re 'Chinese goods e:nd UPI~,not w'her'f the'y ·areput tog,efhe':r.., 'Tb at :said; th'e: 'biggest C'hfu,n'f;:se ,de'cd ,anno'u.nced in :EuFope thfu.s year h.as b, e,en thlf $,2~; b HUo.n purchase 2 'by China Nationa] C,hemicallCorporation of Ellikem, ,a, ~Norwegian :manufa,ctufef of :pomysilicon~ which is a Itey' compo'ne,nt of s.olar p.anels~ An,d icelan,d~h,andiiy' close, to th,e Oiru.~Iit,th Ar-ctj c.~is sai1d to. 'be' surp:rils~'n,gIy ..~
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strucnon equipment, of' 'CMf'A." an Italian :rfuval" in 20'O"ft uC],f'A,~S core' :EuJlOl]e,a.n mart, d" d '. urmg th .. h kets .. ~,ve.· durins t e re ce ssion, n says Josn Lerner of Harvard Business School, who. has written a case study on the deal, But
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whole story Money from the mainland and from Hong Kong is often mterrningled, It does not cost a lot to. open representative offices" which can then quickly be expanded, 'Th:e numbers can also hide the extent of chiT~H~ngain, the data, do not tell the a

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nese influence, Geely owns only 2/0% of Manganese Bronze, 'but: it has th e larger stake in a joint venture between the two that produces the taxi for in ternational markets, it is the British firm's chief creditor and it is the linchpin of Manganese' s stra-

tegic plans" Wa.U"d Sarkis .of 'Balin Cap ital, a privateequity firm, says th at the tilting of e 00-' nomic power eastward is in any C8lSH~~ atun I.aU:y turning Buropean firms into Chinese and Asian ones ..Revenues and. growth, increasingly depend on. these parts of the world..Managers of portfolio companies are thinking about moving headquarters east and listing in. places like Hong Kong.. "The process of reba sing is hap p ening real1Y'fast, "~ says Mr Sarkts, Tbie trend of growing outbound Ch'inese investment is. unmistakable, Christian Mile~U of the 'Universiry of Paris West" 'who has helped compile a database of Chinese investment flows to Europe, says that deals have continued unabated de'=' spite the financial crisis, whereas those of Indian companies have contracted, Behind the scenes, there is an. awfullot - - ,"." Jlnvestm,en,t,an -·'k _ers .routlne~y , "..., . 'b ._. ,". . '1 o f' act.lVnYi 'li, prop os e dl ,ea.JUs o- Cih,'"·,· Sf· "6'1,'; .' ~J. o.n I':· t- 0 . ,:]1. Ine ; ,~rros ff y SCBrre· mh,erbld.d!ers into Ufe); fi,v,e years ago Q th,ey wo,uld 'not h.tlv,e~u'Tlh.er,e is a. huge amoun.t of loo:kin:g' ,going on by Chin.ese companies,'" says Simo'n WUde of Mac= qu:a.rie 'Cap,ilam's E.uropean 'pow'e:r and utill=' iti es :practmce ... t is not allli·atb o'Ut ·atcq ui.sition s: ] taJks are a,pp!are:ntly un,de'r way fOI Chi~' nese firms tOo run b'~ .. gpow·,er and .infrastruc.= ture proj e1cts run easte·rn. Eurnp e.. , Much of this plfosp,ecting ·c.an. e: hard to b spot s~n,ce it is often co:nd.ucted. through mndividuaJ fIxe·rs. with Itno,wledge of tho(~ West a.nd goo,d, con'n!e,ctions in Chm'na~ Mr We:n's, vi.sit this w·e,ek was i'n fUJill view' of the (:ameras b'ut 'w'h'E:n de.a1s are made,. ther·f is ofi:,en Utd.e fanfare~ '~~]t';s diffie're:ntto the Americans,. 'w'here the {:h~.e:f,executiv,e win :11y in. to ta~kea p,ictur'f: with the· 10(,aJ bmsh op~~' says .an Irish eX1e:lcu tive ~ Inv,estm,ents happl,e:n. for !l~1 sorts of re.atsons" 'Chin.ese ba.n:ks want to offer services to 'ch~~ne;secom.pllnjes as th,ey' ,eJ<pa.·nd.in, 't~'rn". '~I't~on' ~fl;t' ,COf' ~n,'If'!t,'~lnrQ a·. d t,o, Eu" 1"O'-' a~1 Lv ~n· ..JILlI1.J'" . .. :pe,Hlnfirms seekmng a 'b,anlkto work. 'witlh :in. C·hin·a" They also hav'e .lots to lliear.n mn a
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trading and derivatives, especially as the yuan .internati on ahses. Expansion is frequently driven by the needs of the highly competitive Chinese market as much as the lure of the European one. "ere and SAFE make financial investments 'based on returns on capital," says Z..Z~ , Qiu, who 'is chairman of Barclays Capital for greater China. "Corp orate deals are

mium brand to sell in.China, Germany has become a natural hunting-ground for industrial companies looking t() move 'up the engineering value chain. Carmaldng is again a focus, 5.0,is c ean tech: !GoO' dwind, a. Cht nese wind-turbine manufacturer, bought a German designer called Ven.sys in 2,00,8; so it could develop, bigger turb ines for its domestic market, Not every European fir.m can assume it has technological allure" however, "I ICO ul dn't sell E T [a British tele corns firm] to China," saysjames Wan.g·t.at Chinese violmist-tumed-dealmaker in london whose finn, lEU C apital, guided, Geely's transactions in Europe. "It's too, old-fashioned,"

more strategic .an,dabout synergies," 'Iechnology and brands are the things that can, make: the 'biggest difference back horne, Take Geely's deals in. EU~]Jpe~ 'The

Deals can hellip to, open up the Chinese market, In JW1.e 2,010 Fosun, a. Chinese eonglomerate with pretensions to become .81.
global investment giant, bought 7J.% (later raised. to 9,.3%) of Club Med, a FrenchleiChi sure company h ". to serve r :nm ese hoping holidaymakers, Club Med's first Chinese resort followed in, December, In May Fosun also bought '9'~:5'%of Polli Follie, at Greek retailer whose brands in,cill'ud:€; Links of London and which thinks the deal win accelerate its QX·pan sion in Ch in !u~ c IFA;'S~ _,.w _' ,._ ._ partnership with Zoomlion has given it 8.C:=· cess to the Chinese fum's. distnbution networks in Africa and the Middle East, Transactions like these: are opportunities not Just for the companies mvolved but aJ.so f()l Ml'ri'v,3lte equffi.ty., Fos:un is acti:n .. g.~ in effect, a.s .at lP,riv'Bl t'e'-eq'uity firm,. an,d, h,as set up 'investm,ent v',entu'res wIDthboth. C·al-' lY].ie andl Pru,d,ential Ffunancial" Th,e Zoom= :Uon-cIFA. d,eal was ·41,[)'% fln,an,ced. by a ,consortiU'm of funds led. 'by' .Hon:y 'Ca.plt.a~~ at
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Volvo purchase gives it a premium brand to compete with We:stern carmakers in China at the: same time as .it alms its own brands a.t the mass market, Jts tie-up with Manganese :Br,onz,e yielded few hard fihas nancial benefits, says Iohn Russell, Manganess's boss, but I otsof broader advantages such as access to engineering know-how and a.brand 'with plenty of heritage .. , It is a similar story with the purchase: by' Zoomlion.a Chinese manufacturer ef (on=

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Across Japa'n, regional power companies are' caught in Fukushima's fallout Most prefectural governors are refusing to re start n uc ear p lan ts tha t shut lor regular maintenance, Power shortages, loom. Other shareholder meetings have been almost as stormy as 'TE"PC:O"S,., The biggest: shareholder of IrEI' co, the utility in the Kansai region, is the city of Osaka, 'which 'has a, 9'% stake, Its. mayor turned up at the annual general meeting and urged the firm to diversify away from nuclear energy Such demands are p opular, Three-quarters of japa.neS € want to reduce or eliminate tlhe country's reliance on nuclear power+ many more than before the accident, The utilities now face mote scrutiny' and tighter energy supplies. They are also 'unlikely to 'win permission to raise rates .. (As regional monopolies, their prices aloe set and their profit margins are guaranteed 'by regulators) Their solid ere dit 'ratings could liquefy KEPICO, and another utility recently cancelled new' corporate-bond of'ferings because yields soared, Firms. that had cross-shareholdings in the utilities 'have also taken a hit. Even banks are affected: cabinet members have suggested they sha re the pain by forgiving a. portion of TEP'CQ,'S pre-quake loans, Naturally, this whacked their share prices, The Pukushtma disaster presents an opportunity for radical reform, But in a crisis people,~ ,oft"~ E:il"'" Since . ~ ~y~ ." on erow con [servative~,. ," . [", ~ the . .' ~. u ~. government holds the purse-strings, it can more or less dictate' terms to Tlif'C,04 The fear is tha t it will bankroll a return to busi..
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soft's Bing search engine ale merely a" click away., Rival s retort th at only Google's name has. 'become a verb; and that this refleetsits vlce-like grip on, the market, {The other possibility 'is that Google's search engine is more popular because U: ms better) Google is not Invincible, Bing :ha.sbeen slowly increasing its share of' American searches and is working with Facebook on integrating so cial-networking data into its results in, a bid, to improve them, I{This is an= other reason why Google wants its OW',n source of social data.l People are also being d s: ' ffiere; ,o__ d more ,an,' more '. igttatmrormanon d ~ th '1 mg · ise d via 01 er sources", mcru d"1'-, specia ]" .. search engines and software applications on smartphones, Wh,e'n it comes to web advertising, it fs, equally hard to see how' any charges of which people access the web, Onjune 2\8~h monopolistic abuse against Google can be Google hit back, unveiling Goo gle- ~ a so- rna de to stick, There IDS no shortage of sites cial-network platform. to rival Facebook, and ad networks un co nnecte d to Google Google's new offering, which ].5 still in tha t are ready to take advertisers' dollars, trial form, boasts. some handly features, ]t And the ICO!stof switching from Goog e to a rival ~svery low makes it easy to set up separate groups, thus sparing your boss from seeing y,our None of this guarantees that Google semi-clothed and Inebriated party snaps .. will escape unscathed from the investigati -.' lE 11c 'G·.-)Idm: 1-(, " ~ It also ems, up to ten, people ho d a. video 1.0n. ..,"'-., v 0 1Il. nan 0 f s-,· -, ta, 'C,·" 1,~ _ani ,; _ ara 'u·'" "," ,~,r _mve chat together ..But' this will proba b ly not b e sity reckons that the FTC;:S. watch dogs. enough to get people to abandon Face- could raise questions about IGOoOgle's habit book, which benefits from a powerfu net- of occasionally bidding in, its own ad aucness ,as'usual. a work effect people join, it: because 'most: of tic ns to' promote "hous e'~~ds for its businesses, Google insists that it has always their friends already h.av'e~ Stint IGlOO gI!e:' det'!erminatio,n to' ke:,ep ~,n= b,een transp,are-nt ,atbout this plract~.oe~ s Reglli,i,ting the iwternet novating has se:rv'ed, it 'w'ell in its 'COI'e b[usi= Like watchdogs fo,r ch,Q,colat'e ness of se;a.r(:h,~, w'here it: co'mmands nearly' two-th'irds of the 'mar:ket in A:merlca and, '¥et eve'n, if IGoog],e has to m,ake' some conan e'ven h~,gh,ers"h,ar,€ 18] s,ew'h,er,e (se 18' ch,atrt)lI ,cessi ons in the end,~talk of its pr,e,dfllca~me:nt It s this do'minanice' mll,ath,ats ,attmr,act,e,d re'gubHeilng the s,ame as 1vli!crosoft"~s m, th,e 19!'90';5 tI-,o~,r-£l' a- .111..'10,. n'- ti:'lo'n' - 'I' n*"t,g m·~- ,IQI'I' ~I 'In':- dl ,~,,"ro"-,·od·', is plainly ridiculous,., Boy' ,emb"ed,ding .onlliy il;;il.U SA FRANI(,IS[CO 'bb.." Last N O'vle:mbe'r th,e Euro:pean [Com'mission ]its ownw'e:~.,ro'wse'r m~ntoUs ", ,. d OWS op'= WllllT'he ,search ,giant''-'s, 3Lntiltrus.t h,eada,che .an.no'unce d .a sim.ilarly swee,ping r1eview' of 'eIati:n,g' syste:m, Microsoft delibera~,!elliy re:Kets 'biglle,r ·01' ,'!i:.;, ", ,.I st'rl' c't'ed,'1 'US.i9IS:!i """h·1_ ce I' nth·· h- op e +-'h··.i9Y IGoog-le"'s ,opet8ltions.~ ,N'C,E i'he start: of th:is ye:ar, Google"s ,An.omh.er re as on, t'h,at t IGo,ogme is. attra c:t= wouilld 'be{~om,e ad,dtct:,ed to :its p'roducts~ share I)ri ce has {will,ensteadily as inves= IGoogh!' is also .a.ddfui(~U ve',~but :in the w,ay ing mo"re attention :is t'h,at it k,e'eps expand= tors h,atv'le begun lo, fret a.bout its Mong'er-' ]inginto new areas", In Sffilicon, VaJ.~eYt one of th,at cho,colam'e is., n.a,m':in th,e' way that ci,gaterm P'Iospiec.ts,., Now th,ey hav'e another th e first 'que'stions a po~:e:ntma~ stor a.sks. r,eU:es a.re" P'e'op.le love, IGoo,g:1ing", but the'y move ""ll'n l~I-----,ori(" -st :re.aso"n to worry~ 'On, June 24th th.e com .. ,a, start-up is: ""W'h,at 'w(luld y,ou do, if !Gool-' 'Ca·· '6,a.J Y' cri- -01'·* up!- G-'· 00 a ~~V~, .··!,o·,~" ~'d.wy~: 6 m- U;:. your space,?'; S.om,e of Gooh,e hoping ~hat t~he ]FTC 'un,de':rstan,ds this p,any reve.aled, that Amerm,ca's 'IF'e er.al gle m,ov,ed, ]~n.to d ,crucial dmstinction,., • "ftad,e Com'm'issru,on (FTC) ha.d op"ened OJ. gle's n,ew v!entur.,es h,tlv,e 'been, ,conttove'l''bro"ad, :inve'sti,gat~on, 'into. its o:nUne -'search sial Fo:r ilnsttllnlce,~ te,gulators re"ce:ntly gave and on~Hn,€-a.dve'rtising bus.iness,es to se'e ~f th.e comp,any a,g,r.ee'nlight (w~,th conditions. 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nary farm, 'Yet they are happy to swap real money for virtual money to 'buy virtual farm tools, And investors are I likely' to pay more than chicken feed for shares in Zyng,a", the firm that makes Farmville and other online games, Zy-nga is expected to file soon for an initial publi c offering (llP 0.)., Analysts pre diet that the firm will be valued at between $lls1billion and $,2€) billion, That is ab out as much as the world's two biggest video-gam e makers (JElectronic Arts and Acttvtsion Blizzard) combined. More than 271m people play Zynga.;s games at least once a. 'month" and the firm said in M· arch th a· 1"~Q~X- ; ects ·tom ake ,~,t ~~ ."p Il~ a profit this year 'Df ;$,6 30,mon revenues of $-1~8billion, So its Dusiness is. more real than, those of some other online firms, Butit is not something a so ber investor would bet the farm, on, Users may tire 'Of virtual vegetables and online Mafia Wars (another popular Zynga game). Riva Is are straining' to grab Zynga';'s players, EIectronic Arts, p" aydom and 'Woo.g,a h,av€ only about 3,om monthly active users ea ch but they ,may 1Ii"'"~I·t ch u p' ill What is more, Zynga depends on two other firms, Amazon and Face book, like the cab bage crop depends on the rain, Although .it, ope rates data centres of its own, it outsources much of its computing to Amazon 'We,b Services, the cloud, . 'g computing arm '0" f tth e 0.'n 'I·' e hePiy.In'.," m ,I 10 1i"l giant. More importantly, mostusers play Zyng.a's games on Facebook, In Septemb er the social network pushed Zynga into using its virtual currency called "Facebook Credits", so Pacebook gets 30% of what Zynga'~s'uslers, 's:pe'nd~ With ,Zy:n,g,a, gear.ing UPI for its IP'O,~th,e question ,now is which other te:ch start-up is next :in line to ,go public" W~th Group on'l' .an online c.oupo,n selvice~also abou~ to float, the su'pply .oJ' hoOt stoc'ks is running IO\ll But S.iU,con 'Valley 've'nture capitaH,sts are b'usy :replenishing the pool 0'0June 24th it emerged that :fOUISq uare" a.loca.= tion-b,ased s,erv.ic:e, h,ad raised $'5,o:m~,m deal that v'a1'ues ilat $6oom~ (FOuIsqu,are lets users electronically ""c:he~,ck in""at b,ars and restaurants so t'h1e:irfriends can, join, them-and th,epeople wh,oowe them, m,on,ey ,can a.void them,,) A few days later mv'estors p,ump,e,d ;$loom into 's,quale', ,at mobHe-':paY'me'nts start-up~ valuing it.at $1 bilUon~Neither firm has ever turne:d a p-rofit.,
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rrie d io r several years to revive its hypermarket business in France, without much success .. Blue Capital, its unhappy main shareh 01del, has. re 1entlessly pushed thi€ sale of ass ets to prop up Carrefour's saggi.ng share price, Before the retailer's recent annual general meeting, rumours csrculated that: lars Olofsson, its chief executive, was on his wa.y out. After a tumultuous me eting Mr Olofsson kept his job, ,A week later, onjune 28th, Carrefour said that it had receivedan offer to. merge its Brazilian operations with those .of Comp anhta Brasi eira de Distribui~ao, I(ClBD)" the owner ofPao de Aeucar ("~S'u,gar oaf'~)~.atancy 'Brazilian chain. m f '1~ U' nder the proposa ~,- ..,B,,'D·. an d Carrevi ......... , _ _,__ four's Brazilian arm win merge into Gama, a holding company capitalised 'by the (state-ownedl Brazilian National Development B,ank (BN'D ss), Th:is would receive an Investment of €2 billion ($,2-~9billion) and at loan of €,50o,m from lB,ND'ES,., Carrefour wou dhave a 50o/~stake in the new entity . The deal has obvious attractions ~The Brazilian market is fragmented ..can is the biggest retailer; Carrefour is, number two, The new company would have combined sales of perhaps 69 billion reais ($43 billion), It would have, a 21~ib share of the world's thnd-la rgest grocery market after m 10m· A~ ,or-I·'C-"~1 and Chin .a B;F~I"71"~jI'c °C-',Q,n· -y.'~ is i~ hot: it grew by 7;;S:Wo last year, Its po pulation is young, Unlike certain other emerging markets, ill t is a stab e democracy Alas for Carrefour, there is .at sna.g',.Th,e ot'her big owne'r of c':s:n is C,asino", anoth,er Fre:n:ch, firm, .and C alwIefour's an::hritvat 'Ca~ sin,o owns 3;7% of the oom,patny and h:as th,e .apti on to. ~ake a majiorru,'ty' ,of 'voting ri,g'h~s next 'year un,der a. ,pr,evl.ous agre'ement S:in,c,e it ,em,er~giedm,atst onmh m:h a.m'AbJI ~0 Dim
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C,arr.e:four to discuss 31 possible tie-up'l' ICa.sino an,d Mr Diniz havl€ been at d,a.gg!e;rs drawn,," Casino claims m'h,ath,e n.(~gotfBltID,ons. t

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could mean a long and costly battle, And even if Casino wins, 1m' will have' poisoned th,€ relationshtp with 'its co-proprietors an d distracted everyone from the task of sell'.-- ~,b ~d --:'-~--,-., ~~- - ~d impor --te~ .'--- -- - d lng-, CU, rec plne.ap'p~es an, che e SH! to afflu ent JB razihans, Another possibility is that WaJmaIt~ the third-biggest retailerin Brazil, might bid for Carrefour's Brazilian assets, That would w ~,'~ C-"-B' jF\, sa -y..e IC- ,'h'r1 €"t-,o· ken .pher H' og ~'1' ,"' n u. .. at Be-rnstein, Research .. WaImarm' is investing heavily' in BI:razillit. op"ening more th,an 10,0 shop,s th,e:re la.s.t y'e',ar~ T:he de'atlliis BkeIy to, be s,crutinise d close= ly 'by' iCade,. BI8zU.'S, ,81ntitrus~ a,u.thorit~ w:hich, fus bec'Om~.'ng: stricte:r abo'ut the cr!e= aUO.n of ,giatnts 'wit'h, prmcing power~ C,arre= fo'ur and Gama :say th,ey' ,are p.reparin.g pI'O= posaJs for 'Cade., Th,e.se may in,elude divesting: themsel vies of so'me- st ores:in S,ao ]P,3ulo, where th;e two ,ch!a:ins are d,o.mrnant ":., : -, -,-1 -,-', - 1,' -antage De ~, ':_,,' ad ',""- '' .'_ B"I' ··t 'the d eatl has " 0 " ,-:.gre at ,-,- v_ -, ', 1.-'_, :_',~+t U is support:,ed b,y th,e government 'Via thie :B,ND',ES,., :Bratzi,U,a.n pol~,cymakers ,a.re' wo:['.. ,~ b 18 .' .' 'Y' I lue:d~a= o'ut;raZlJl "~Il b,e{:o'mln,gmaln. 1 an, 'ex:.~ pOrh!r .of ,comm,oditi,es~ So they are kee:n to create ,natio,naill Ic'h,am,p)io:n,s fun othe:r sec~ tors; even if th,ey aI,e pa:rtly oontroU,ed by for,e~,gn,ers~ Ca.rre-fo'ul c!Quld 'bri'n;g'valu,31ble sl~ins~,oBr,a,'zil" and, peiha.pls h,eillp the new 've'ntuf,e gain acoess mo ma,'rkets in other cou'ntries ..Whe'n you us's: your loaf~ the r,€w,ards can be: sweet, ·'
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India, Inc catches a. cold, confidence in India fi:has taken a knock I,h,e' stockmarket is down, by a ten h in donal terms this year" Thatre,flects hlghertnterest rates, 'but also a. sense that the government has lost the plot, It has, say its critics, failed, to control corruption and public borrowing, fallen behind on infrastructure and proven unable to make decisions, Ve danta, a. London-listed resources firm, has 'been, waiting for almost a year for mimsrerial approval to 'buy' control of the Indian unit 0'1' Cairn En,ergy; which, is also London-liste d~ On Iun e 28th; during: a trip to America, Jn dia's finance minister insisted that things 'w,.::r€on track, Many business folk are seeptical "Reforms will happen+after the whole system collapses," predicts a COf"-' porate oligarch. He is j ust talking about India's b ankrupt electrici ty-distri bu tion companies; which are a, tiresome, bottleneck, Overall, he remains an optimist IOn In dia, arguing that a ~'-,gIO1 den century" awaits the country But for many firms 'the usua I jitters are now' combined 'with, a. . ess familiar 'problem: falling profitability Listed firms' return on equity which was 21=23 % runthe five years to March 200!8,~ was only 17% last fisC:cd 'l!re:a:r~ ,e:sti:maN~:s IIFlL, a brok'er~, 'usin,g~ a sample of 14,0 compian.ies ,atcco,untm.ng fOol' two-thirds, of th,e stockmarkem 'by valu!e~ Datta fo,r the Nifty Fifty ind,ex .of 'big firms p,aint a simi ar :plcture (s€'e' ch.a.rtl~ F€rw' ,~lnalysms expect .a. qul,cl[ r!ecove'ry~ Part of the faJ.m :refle cts tr.ansient fllctors,..
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nies) returns, for example, But deeper trends are at play, too, Labour ICOS.ts have risen, particularly at:some state-controlled fn . ....':...- -' A· .. t' 'h'OIlitY '0'f" [,1n:dia's S $.1 aff'" b :m!!! '"'1 rms S't" eer Au ,.I ..l.a ··t ...111 rosie by' a whopping 41% last fiscal year, Indiscipline and slower-than-expected growth have 'W:!I tied profits in sectors such '0 c ~'e- 'm' I~n--~'I~" ,if'>,o-:n._1_stru ':ctio_ "n'- '~'-L- .'p-- erty :gn' -.I: ,d- *';;Q;I- ~ ·' ·-I P' 'r.' eo m-m unicatio ns .I .' - - .'. . I . -, I. '. d -,' h- . S orne mdustnes, SUIC· - ,'as consumer
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goo ids; continue to prosper; But to motor along, India's economy' needs not only

shampoo but also new roads, shops, houses, faetorie s and power plants, Lowe-r returns and faltering reforms may 'make firms coy about si nldng money Into the gro run..d In the q;:' rrter 'tIO' M',ar. 'c·:h··""0" ·-w' . rth In ua Ill'~' ",.~. ,'" ," 0 . .. .xe.·. ",'1a I In,veS ..m _·t- -.'1'I' . ,," ,-... ' ·1 gross fix d cap ~t.1 ", ",' ..,' ·t· en. s, umpesd." having been healthy for years (other than d urin,g' th,e :20,09 financi.a.m ,eri sits)" 'The c:h,atIDrm,an of a m,anufaict,urmng .and, re:tat~.1ing· irm says he has Ile,ce',ntlliy tem= f perf,d, his e'xpansi-on p~a'ns; Just to. play ,it: stt~e," "I suppose everyone hias do:n,e it,/, he remarks", whi~e aJ,lcknow'm,e,dgi'ng m:h,a.t this ,coUectiv;f wobbllie Iis:ks bee:.o:min.g ,a selfful filU'ng p'Iop·he'~y ..•
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HINA"ha.slots ofpeople, notmuch '....' oi] and I ulers who Iove big pro] e:cts . Small wonder that makers of electric cars see it as.the 'market of the future, The Chinese government want's t,ohave 5,OO~ 0'0 ele ctri c ears, 1orries and buses 0 on chinese, roads by' 20115 and 5'm b,y 2020 .. ]s providing customers with ]t subsidies worth up, to 60,,0,00 yuan ($.9,250) and oth er incentive s, too, If it carries. on, doing so, ele ctri c car's, and plug-in hybrids could account for 7% of new-car sales in. China 'by 2020~says a forthcoming report by' the Boston Consulting Group, That would make China the, b iggest market for electric vehicles, by 'volume" :in the world. Foreign finn S ere saliva ting, :But:they are alsonervous ..uThe price for market access h g- o 0.'- e uP- savs M' icha el "I' ,41'.;Ji Dunne, the president ofDunne & CO'",Q, car consultancy in Hong Kong, Foreign producers are' betng told aboutnew "draft" rules 'which mean they must share more intellectual property and branding rights with their Chfnesejomtventure partners, he says. Onlune 27th. Carlos Ghosn, the boss of Nissan+which 'with,its partner Renault is taking the biggest electric-car bet by launchinga range ofplug-in models-: said he wo'uld. wait to learn 'more a,lhout the n.ew polilcy' before de'cilding how' many ele,ctric cars Nissan will m,a~kein Chin a (inclu,ding th,e ,ne.'w Nis san Le.af.)~ "'We win, adapt o'ur strategy to th,e Iu~eS't~'~ he, ad,de,d~ At'pIesent~th,er,e ,are p.le,nty' of unknowns, sn,eh ,atS 'wh,ether subsidies w:nI be'ne'nt only Chinese ·brand$'~ Th,e' ~().ctllchampion is BYD", ,at ba~terym,a.ker turn,ed, ca.r pro,duce:r in w:hich Warren, Buffett h,ats ,at 's,talke~ BYD is strug'=' ,gliing~ howev,e:r, to get its ,new e6 elec.tric car to ,ma:rk,et It WHS s'u,:pp"o:sed to g'o on sale in, A'm.erica last year", b·ut was nnt ready..It is now 'be:ing tested b,y taxi tle ets in Shenzhe'n, where BYD is base,d~ The, Chinese gove-rnme,nt couldjui.ce up the m,arke~:by insisting that more taxis '
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ma.y b,e h:Blrdef ..Electric carmak,ers typicaUy claim that I'heir ve'hicles ,ean travel a '!lI't "" , t, ..... "_ . _".'p ':,'u ..~. ~. ,u< 1·o.'n(J way...:>. w~.;j1'ho· r ch- arUI"ng'-'l, ,:"U t .;j1'h ra.ng,e (,an fall by ,at third ,or ,more if 'yo'u turn on, the aj,r-'co'n,ditioning,~, ,acceIe'rate h,a.rd, or oth,eIW'is,e drive normally., BYD' claims that the, ,e,6ha,s a rang,e of 300km ns6 'mU,es)~w'hich is about ~wice' th .. of at Nissan's Leaf~Motoring ha:clks have yet t.o. pu~ that cladm to:a.good road test
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"information overload" and you are immediately , •• '(Hlerioad:ed, 'with information: more than, 7m hilts in, O~'O,5sec= ',~ onds, Some of this information is interesting for example, that the phrase "information overload" was popularised 'by Alvin Tof:=, fler in 19r70~ Some of it is mere noise: obscure companies promoting their services and even more obscure bloggers sounding off.. The overall impression Is at once overwhelming and confusing, "Information overload" is one of the biggest irritations tn modern life",'Ib ere are e -mails to answer" virtual friends to pester, v.o'uI~~"b,.o.-V1-:-'~d, ,°,0,(;" to!watch an d'.back 'l""n" the Pihysical world m !d,~tl.' " "n. ~, n." '~ ings to, attend, papers to. shuffle and spouses to appease, A survey by' Reuters once found that two-thirds of managers believe that the data deluge has made theirjobs less satisfying or hurt their personal relationship S,' One-third think thatit has damaged their health. Another survey suggests that most managers think, most of the informati on they receive is useless, Commentators have comed at profusion of phrases to describe the anxiety and anomie caused 'by too much mformation: "data asphyxiati on';" (William, van Wi nkle), "data smog" '(D'a:v:id Shenk), "information fatigue syndrome" (D avid' ewis), "cognitive overload" (Eric. Schmidt) and "time famine" (Leslie Perlow), J ohan'n Hari, ,at B;ritish jOllrn,alist, 'no t'es th8t~:there is a goo d re'Sison w:hy' 'i"w:mre,d'" means both ''''co,nn!e,cted, to th,e internet"~ an,d 'i'~high" fran t],ct.'un,Gtlble to co,n,cen tr,at t:e"~ ~ 'Thes,e wor.ri!es .ar,e exaggerat,ed~ Stick-=in=the=muds :have aJ= ways c,omplain!ed about new' b!:,ehnoMogies: th,e 'Victorians fussed th,a,m the tele.gl.ap:h m!ean,t that "the 'busin,essman of' th,e p rese'n1lt ,da'y ,m,'ust 'b,e ,co:ntin'u,ally on thejiump",'" A'nd, 'businessp,eople hav',e .alw'ays ha.d t:o dleal wmth cnnstant p!r,es.su:re ,an,d :int,erru'pti-onsh,ence th:e wor,d ~~busmnes:s,';"n his, classlc study of m.anage-rmal I wQirl~ mn, 1973 H,enry Mjnm~z'berg ,conlpa,red 'm,anag,ers to, jiug~g' e'rs: *'h- Q'y'" ~lr'Qe- p~'',0''_ m..'~.,~~11~lls- *llh--~' ·'O'li"r" 'In'- 'd' ne' 'r'I"'O~"d~l~'''''''l'll-y.'" ;t'>h'e_:~,~ 1'',_", ~'u.Wl 'O~'n'- ~, I ~!u ' IF' 0- "nl\~: _ 5 ' lLU a ~Jl li'n'-: ~ ~ '_,' ble~o:tesending it aloft on'ce' mo:re~ Yet c1.e.arID,y th:e:re is a problem,., It is n.ot merelli,y the diz.zyin"g in,icrease in the 'volume of' Jinform,ammo:n (the amount of data 1bein,:gstored dnu'bmes eV'lery' 18, m"ont'h.sl, It is a]so I he ,com,'binatinn of om,'n],presence an,d fI,at.gmentat~,on~ Many profess~,onaru,s are w'e~,d,= ,e,d to their smartplhones. 'T,hey' ,are, aJso, ,co:n.smandy bom.b"ard,ed with unrela.ted, 'bits ,an,dp,mleces-'a. poke from ,a friend 'One' mo',Ul,
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ment, the latest Greek financial tragedy the next The data fog is thickening at a,time when companies are trying to squeeze ever more out oftheir workers, A survey' in, Arnerica by Spherion Staffing discovered that 53%,of workers had been compelled to take on extra tasks since the, recession started, I,his dis m a],trend may well continue-many companiesremain reluctant to hire new' people even as business picks 'up",So' thier,€ will be, little respite from the de-nse data smog, which some researchers fear may be, poisonous" They raise, three big worries, Pirst, information overload can make people feel anxious and powerless: scientists have discovered that multitaskers produce more stress hormones, Second, overload can reduce creativity Teresa Amabile of Harvard Businltss School 'has spent more than a decade studying the work habits of more than 9~iOO'O people ..She finds that focus and ereativity are connected, People are' more Iik ely' to be, creative "if they are al owed to focus on something for some, time, without interruptions, :~fconstantly interrupted or forced to attend meetings, they are less likely' to, be creative, Third" overload can also make workersless pro ductive. DavidMeyer, of the 'Unrversi ty of Mi chigan, has shown. that 'people, who complete certain tasks in parallel take much longer and make many more errors, than people
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62: A .b;,it...out for Glr,e'ec'e':s banlk creditors
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6,3, A shock, to, ,oil markets 64 The messy',j,ob o,f r,(!'gulating fina,nce 6,5, [E:co'nomi cs focuse Ove'rhea tin 'g:

emerging markets

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Ec'onondst~c:orll The 1M F,r's new head

e'CCUIII Ij],mri!cs

Wanted: a French revolution

ward truths about their economic policies, But: countriesare unlikely to heed its. advice unl e ss they b e lieve :inits imp artfuaJ.futy~
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The task facing Christine Lagarde in her new job IM::tF bosses, Ms Lagarde takes the job, when ESPITlE all the talk, of an "open, meritEurope itself is the fund's biggest client, Esbase d and transparent" contest, there ,wa.s little ;"---, t '-, -OU,iU'I~,th·a· ._ ,.I rIS .]In,e,_La. '''',s l .. U'en:~,ason,.a '- ib I. at -:h risti ,-,-',11' " d tahlishing and maintaining her indepengarde--Prance's fin ance minister, a forme I' dence from her former euro-area colleagues-whose support was crucial to her head of a b,ru,g' global law firm, and one-time ,__ ,J,I!I;".,_, ,,_:'!I;..' ,Lv_" member o"'f',,~,!1i, cou ntry's~ '_,~ her '0" ~l_-_, synchronised" :-' landing the role-will be, at more important swimming team-would get the mop; job att task for. her than for her pried ece ssors, 'That will determine whether she sueth.' e 'MMP- The European Union ,', whose> ceeds tn fulfilling the: vision she outlined in members control around a third of the votes on, the fund's board, had united be= her first official comments after being selected, In those remarks, Ms Lagarde hind her as,soon as she entered the fray, stressed that she, would. seek to ensure that Emerging markets made much of their d,eS]lIe t SIE. e a. non 'E 'I · 1,,0 -urop e,an tak'. e, th e Jlob th e IMP' was "relevant, resp 0 nsive, effe cI, __ I,. 0 .'~ tive and legitimate", 'On the first two but conspicuously failed to, rally ar01U1,d, counts she should have a relatively her only rival, Mexico's Agustin Carstens, smooth ride, The IM]F~S relevance may A illill that rematned was for America formal"v ~;,;" e'.<have b een I· n doubt- durmg *he boo' m years n ly to throw its weight behmd Ms 1 agarde.It did so on, june 2o,~ ., ano soon a ,Ier tht d -," aft ,-" ne but the crisis has see nit' return de cisively to 1 ,.', " , JI- ,- ... - 'O'lffhl' fun,d;s bO,tjlrd confllm!ed th a.t, she w.o,uld 'b,e Icentre stage~ Co-ntributions from ,its members havle trt,pled :its p're~-'crru.s~slen,d'ing c'aits nth 'man,agin,g' dire,ct o:r~ In most ways, h,er ,a:pp1oiintm,en.t :is in pacity~ -wh~,ch,now ,exce,eds $750, bH~jon" ke lep:iIn,g' 'wi th_ pust 'practice,. Like aU t:en, This, in,cr,eas.e,d fire'pow',er h.ats.,a.Uowe,d. i~'to. resp"ondl swifd,y in 22 c.o'u'ntrie:s, sin,ce' the man,at,gjng ,d'ir.ectors 'w'h,o have pre'c,ed,ed he'r" Ms Lag,ard,;e ~,sEuro'pean and got the Job (:ri5:i;8." H.avin:g' 'more mo:ney has ,also ;e:n~ l ~\..lllc . ~ E' i:J! ._ ¥'*0' ab,h;:d fut to o:ffe-rfinan'cing on m,ore fl.,exible 1-'i!7!llirU;Gii lily b-. '!:!IiU'e';Giio· 'Jl iC.'up P o· ill. ~, ·f;:r'.',._ m' "th- ·e' 'nd' "'s :ri,ch=world sha:reh,old,e rs. B'ut t'h ere aIe ter.ms than bie£o_re., 'Th,e B,n!te d goals of effectiveness atn,d mes.ome differenlce-s a.s w,eU. Ms Lag.ard,e wiU be the, first woman to giti.mcu::y a:re hard,e:r to a,chie'v'e~ S'u,ccess run thie ]MF,. Giv',en tham' th,€ p.o,simmon h,er'e will depend on, mhe degree to 'w'hic:h, o]p,en,ed U,PI becaus.e the fund,'s last hiead" the IMF under ,Ms Lag,ard,e is able a;n,d w'iU,ing to act :indep,end,ently .of its bigge;st Dominique Str.aus'S~I{a:hn~ was charged, w"ith atl,emp1ted. :rape~ this is n,Q b',adl thio_g .. s.h,are'hol defs" To b"e ,an e"ffe ctm,v,e~nstituti on" the 'EMF n,e,ed:s, to le~1 g.o,ve"fn:me'nts ,awkMOore, imp()rtalnt~y~, ,and 'u~nlike previous
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richer countries. rne manner of Ms Laearde's selection will [...i've them litt e rea. g' Ie son to change their minds, Nor will a recent assessment b,y its own internal watchd nO' w· zhich reckons th at ~'h'-'-Q ' Il::!'sIM··· ··-11l11.'!lr 1..;..'_' economists feel "pressure to align their con elusions with V1!"I· ewe' ,,', To..• W l.c.tI, ~c "",t,. an lit: :;;1' .. 1.'1 this perception of bias into one of evenhandedness, Ms Lagarde will have to lead by example, Her biggest challenge win be the, euroarea debt crisis. Many emerging markets are troubled by' the IMF'S willingness to lend large amountsof money to struggling
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European states" arguing that it 'would have been. 1ess generous to non euro area '. . "~:1 ,. , countries ln, smmila,r circumstances, T'h ,e , amount mt has agreed to lend to, Greece, for -., th 1. example, IS a b I - 24 tunes tne amount .out Greece contributes to the IMF ~In contrast, ,,' ' ..' coun "tt.'·"ies " "~·'ll.~', -Vi' - .'ne and ,~a.JL!:lStan hs ,", d,l"e'.· cra,ru ',,' an. ID\.~I,,·",*,.· nave
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' d'i 1 Ire h ,atS agree_J,o ~1en. dId ,a.n "Greece an d POI -,=_ tugc,al ~'stwice ~'he c,o:mbined size of its 19':'" p,rogramme's. 'with no,:n-e'U'fo=area (oun,= tries ..IC\ri~fulcsargue t'h,at this ,anlOU.Ints to an 'un:usuaID, ooncen.tration of' risks in a sing'me ,;, ··th·.J ., regm.o:nt WUl; J uamag~~n"g consequ,en,c..es shouilld, o:n.e.of th,es,e ,(o'untries d,efault., Matt,eIS Icouilldl g,et, m,ore Icomplic.ated sHII if Gr.eece fat~lsto ~iv'e up to the terms of ,~:,'"agr,ee,ment"- an, d tel r- un,·d' ,an,·. t,Le-:'EU.1'1ms:'" "",", d '-h - d' ~", " ItS. ,'- --,..',,' ,", ",., -'h ,agr,ee ,on th,e w-ay ,ahead" Sho,uld th,at hapiIin,o.fl" M·.··: ,e La: ·g,~r-'d.I,D. -W~7,O, ',U! lid:' n···c,od' 'il'O· ~ -_.. - ...'1,... ~ . lIr" .w". 't·· n;Uls' 'h--' ill ]MF'S point of 'view' m,'n nego:tia,tio:ns with h:er former coUeagu,es" :pe'rha.pls t,o. the ex.tent of arguing that an o:rdlerlliy :restructur~ ...'
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• ing of Greece's debts is preferable to Imposing further austerity measures on its people, Given that Ms. Lagarde has so far been firmlv In th;€" ,,,' _-", "".y,,,,, , anti-restrucn iri ','. ", ",r ,u. ng'camp ].t remains to, be seen 'how' well she could ' nn',-:, ,_,111.m·-- ... 1.. th C"W" It ch A, n-"-:'e' W· "pr'-o'-"p-:' osal 'v ' rolling over privately held, Greek debt, 'which does little to solve Greece's problems but has the backing' of the French government (s,ee Ia tier story); will provi die an early test Ms Lagarde may also have to. confront her backers in Europ"e if th,€ ~I F is to M achi eve .1 on zer-term oals ~One of the m ost important is persuading emerging econoI . " --"

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mies to rely on, the fund's resources, rather than their own reserves" :in nmes of cri sis" By' doing this, and more generally by influencing countries to adopt more' sustainable economic policies, the fund seeks to reduce the macroeconomic imbalances that many argue lay at the heart of the glohal financial and economic. meltdown. But thi S; too; relies on convincing emerging economies to trust the :fund.. iey are unlikely to do so as long as they continue to be, under-represented at the :][M,P", Despite some, changes that were agreed upon during the tenure of Mr

Strauss-Kahn, countries like China; Brazil, India and Russia have far fewer votes than their econorn ic h eft merits. But remedying this requires over-represented countries like Belgium and rae Netherlands to agree to cede more 'votes to. emerging economies than they' have thus fat been wining to",Ms
Lagarde's

her proximity to and rapport 'with the :Europ,ea'n,establishment, If she uses those advantages, well, that would go.some way towardsjustifying yet another European at the helm of the ]M'f'.. •

skills and political savvy' should help; so might

formidable

negotiating

Accounting for American public pensions is still flawed

T

Board (OASlBl" the standard-setter for America's state and local governments, is a step, in the right direction, But it will stil] leave an unsatisfactory system, The best 'way to illustrate the: insanity is to. compare the public and private sec= tors, When a private company switches its pension scheme from ,afinal-salary or contribution (n c} basis, the intention is to save money The company's exposure to a 'D c scheme is limited to the amount that it puts in; in a Dl~,scheme, it must. make up any shortfall in investment returns" A state that switches from nn to D'C, for new employees 'would find that its cash costs rise in, the short: term, New hires will mate their contributions to the, new D'C scheme, not the old :DlD, scheme, but the state still has to cough up for existing' DB benefits, 'Th,e current accounting :r-ules force th,e stale to recognise those costs more quickly once the D'B scheme is closed to new members, dissuading some states from m,aking the mov,e~In N,ewda, a study lby the Segal'Grou,p, a consultanc.y, foun,d th.at e:mploy,er ,contritruti.on~s would ,have to rils,e by 10%, of payrollt or Ih2 billion, over two ye'ars;o A swit!ch fro:m, DB to DC will sav'e m,oney O've'f th,e long t_,erm iby capping the emp,oye'l ;'s ]iab'iiit~ But not th,Bl~mu,ch4 That is because "m, ny' states :have legal and a ,constitutional :provisions 'prOle,cting ,existing 'w'o.rkers' jp,ensio:n rights" Su:ch pta-visions safeguard not just the accrued, p,e:n,~ sion rights of'w'or.kers; th.ey' als,o b,at state:s from ,at~teIing their Iights with, :regar,d to 'th,e-ir IU'lure serv,ice. The s,a,m'e protecti.on s do not apply in the pri'vatte' se'ctor~ The ,ca,st"-i'ron nature .of this. pensi ons guaran~e,e oU,ght, yo'u might think~ to be
defined benefit (D'B.), basis to a defined-

HERE is crazy and then there is accounting for American public-sector pensions ..A pro pose d set of reforms from the Government Accounting Standards

reflected :in p ension accounting, But states :.i ,": '" I ..', '" ,"", I ,' .. , d toO are a]'I-I owen a. more generous',' accounnng'': .: treatment than private-sector employers, They can discount their lrabilities on the basis of the assumed rate of return (.8'%, 'is standard) on the assets in, their pension funds, Companies have to us'€ the, (lowerl yield on an AA=l,ated corporate bond, So the 'prese:n t value of a sta te"'s jlialbililt.i:e s is lower than it wo'ul,d be if privat'!fo=se c.tor. ". ,es - le: - .' "gh--' ru ~-." - app--1'· d eve'n-. iI:h - .I'· gh-- t ':e rl~· ts- 0f' .·ou/··· "h pu'bli(:-sector workers are grea.ter~ ' Tha G "B·: 'pro" 10'0" sals d· 0·' Ie aC"4;. C"UOO'BS'".,,t" ;:';-iO.~:""" th.aJ t'he unfunded portion. of a sta.te~s ]jCllbi[ity be discounted at an AA, ra t.e", ut calB ,cul.atin,g th:is p o,rtio,n stiU, invo Ives the 'use .of t'he e-X]p,ect,ed,r,eturn on ass,ets~ The assumptio,n that the e'ntire'lP,enslon fund. ca.n earn, 8% is hi.ghly ,ques~iona'ble", Give;n the current yields on. cash and. 'Trea,sury' 1b ds" it: requires a do'uble:=d:igit reon tUrn from equities ov'er th,e Iongte~fm..That looks imp:ro'batble:~ The return from e:qui= '. . d-~ ties ,comprls,es tlh e d,·,';'d d,~ ., 'I'd' PI' USI_IV= .•• JlVll_en, y][e'". _'~ idend gro:wth~, plus or min,'us ,at'ny cha.nge hl the- rating (t'h,e p.rice,-div:id end rat.io)." Given
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need to make some 'heroic assumptions to get to a double-digit return, Whatev1er the excess return, from equities, it is,a reward for risk, You cannot simply assume this risk ,away~especially after '. t he experience o fh .e past ten years, Af t Arter all, if states CoO uld count on a high return from equities, 'why stop at their pensionfund exposure? They should borrow money i,nthe bond market and invest the proceeds i:n shares. They could use the profits to pay for future expenditure Ion schools and, highways", Invest. enough and perhaps statte taxes could b e abo lishe d alt oge th er~, ,ere ],S a 'ch".anee,,, hot ",' ~.,,a.. ... " Th· ,-,. 'j.. . -' '., . lowever, 4f'h- t citizens 'would consider this reckless In the past, hilgh=retum assumptions have allowed the states to. get away with making lower contributions, But when the strategy goes wrong, the taxpayer foo ts the bill. ,A recent study by' the Centre for Retirementkesearch at Boston College found that states have, a funding' 'ratio (the proportion of assets to liabilities) of 77% on the official measure, but just 51'% if a risk-free rate is us ed. T'h- 'I' 1i1s bi 0" h- '0.~.. to- fi" '111.,,·· n e ' 'p~gIP'I'" er" a -' "}- eo'-' . .. '"1 A~ . by :Robert ,Nov'y'=Marx of th,e Unive'tsity of Rochester and Jo.s:hua Rauh of the K~eI= logg Scho.ol of Management m Chicago c.alculartes that to fuHy' fund stat,e and Io= c:aJpensions 'within 3-0 yea;rs,~ conttib'uti.ons wUl ha.ve to more than do'ub~,e'~hatt T translate s in to. a tax incre"ats,e of '$1,3'98 p,er 'h 0' U· ,o'h' 0 1d'i p'~I '11'Q '!llf. WI , . V~ eta' ,t ;o;'s" ('Nr .o.w', .~ ..~ ·lth· 'fi'~ li,o;rs,o".:! 'N' jaW '\LO" rk O-:"rAgon. "y ;""'0ml"n g' u. ., . W"" J'~ J,L I,:,,, .... ~.'=I ..•'. '_' '~nd olhio) r€,quir~ng ,an iincfe'ase of mn:re' ~h:aln $.2,~O'OO' a,year", Taxpaye:rs may be happy' to. ·· ma k···'e.h·,~'- con!J..rI,.. '-~"-'- ~O th I ewe· '''-''If'- - 0- fI ., .. ;"''-' . IS - .-~. ~;b ~U,d'o.n llJare th!eir fellow' citizens. But they ShOllld at Ieasteb to id 'b' '_a~out th' srle 0f- t 'e b II."1"1'• e
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.Abank bail-out by another' name?
BERLIN

Banks would do rather too 'well out of a proposed rollover
IMMEDIATE worries about a Greek

. default were allayed on Jun,e' 2'9'mh,~ with the p as sage of at first 'vote' in 'the, Greek parliament on an austerity plan, Not before fear had spread well beyond the Aegean .. The tnterest rates demanded by investors to hold Spanish and Italian govemment debt rose to their highest levels in seven months on Iune :27th~before slipping back, On Iune 29th America's Federal Reserve extended a. promise to provide dollars to other major central banks, The pressure to put together a. second bail-out package for Greece, remains intense, A propcsal from the French banking sector this week on. rolling over privately held, Greek debt. is supposed to clear the way., Not amm the details are clear but the plan seems to do too little to help Greece, and too much h)! help the banks .. The proposal is intended to! achieve two inconststent objectives. The first is to ensure that priva te creditors contnbute to. a Greek bail-out, to satisfy German demands that taxpayers should, not have to bear a 1 the 'burden of anot er @'urO-ZOD'e rescue, The second m.s to e:nSUll€ that participation in the plan is seen as voluntary by' the ratings agencies, thereby avoidmg a declaration of default, T'he Fren,ch platn :proposes ,giving :piI~V= ate creditors two optio:ns~ 'One ms to as:k 'b,atnl~sto [Ifmn,vest alm,ost .aU of th e lP[o,ce'eds of Gr!f;,eltbonds that mature 'betwiei€nnow a.n,dJune 2,,014 :in new :fiv,e-ye,atl bo:n,ds~'This '-w-'-o'ul'd d;O; ~'U a "ro ck'-o ':1 1;'_ by- a"l~' .':-y- b~"r\f'! n~'ng - ,_ ~ C£1iw-- ~,d '6t.tJ'~Tbe s,e,cond, proposal-and thle one p:re'-'
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ferred 'by banks-Is far more' complicated (see chart) and is designed m'o Improve the creditworthiness of 'Greek bonds, Take a here's howit ---0-U _'WvI. {.,,~, ,deen breath.;,.'6 i~_~'Jft" .-' \;;,~..I IW' W! tld work AGreek bonds :m,Brtur € over the next three years, the eountry would repay holders, Banks would pocket 10% of the cash and "voluntarily" buy new, 3,oi=year. Greek debt with the .rest Greece in turn would. pass on about ,20'% of the original bonds' value (0,[ 3'0'% of the amount being rolled over) to. ,(I, special-purpose vehicle (SFVJ that would buy' .AA.A-ramed bonds maturing in 30, -'. years,., 'I"f-' G'~' " . reece d fauI -Its, t.h. ._e ese b . d s _-on would hie used as. collateral to repay banks the principal they loaned, In the circumstances, the deal is ,at goo,d one for banks, It reduces the potential loss
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they might suffer 'were Greece to default and lets them take some money out now ]t also rewards them with interest payments that 'may rise to 8%, if the Greek €!'conomy re b oun d'S~ seems sensible for th,€ banks '~~]t. to be taking a bet like tills,on a. Gre ek recovery" t. says. Alex 'Isirigotis, an analyst at Me= diobanca, "If they don't take' the 'bet; they face the p otentia] of losse sin, the magnitude of 50,% anyway" For Gre ece, the bargain :i s far less comJl:H:~IUn,g~ he, 3,o'-Y',ear plan does nothing to. T reduce Greece's debt burden and could complicate any eventual restructuring, Since Greece would pay interest on al of' its borrowings, 'but cou d use only part of' them, its cash interest rate over 3;,0 years wouldbe ,ab'out:l0r11'%,.,'some rescue, •

Float hopes
MAIUllD

,A Iarge

Spanish savings bank nervously heads for the markets
cajas~

ISpain'sdespite sickly markets and.fears largest savings banks, or so,
T a bad time to be listing one of IS Even
(,$ 5~71b illion) initial public offering (IP o)

of Greek con tagion, Bankia this we ek pushed ahead 'with plans for a €4 billion

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in mid~Jut.y~ move, is r].sky~but so too The is delay "There is a lot riding on this ]F'O;~~ saidlose Luis Rodrfguez Za,patero; the prim e mi n'ister, this week, Th e bank is the biggest of eight cajas that must raise' fresh capital to comply with new governmentrules on capital (Banca Civica, a much smaller lender, aims to list: th,e same ,day).. Th,e'lB ank of Spadn rec'kons the systle:m needs no m,ore than €IS billiont on top of th:e '€,n.,6 biUion ,already' co,mmitt,ed 'by th,e sta.te"s Fu'n,d for O:rderly Banle Resmru,cturing ,(PR OB). A'nalyst,s are'.l ess s.anguine: estim,ates, of ~he,capital shor~age range, widely 'but hav'e ,a. m,ean.of aroun,d €40 b,flIion'-5o billion of extra.cash~That is less tha.n 5% of GD'P an,d the FROB has a ,ca.p,acity' of up to €9'9 bi.Uion~Dut it' is 'not p.re=furnded: raising- that amount of c.ash, in a. h,urlY wouMd 'be hard., The :hope is that ,at suc,= cessfuI IP 0 fOI ,Banlkila,w:HI len,courag'e' oth,er caj as to tap private ca.pitat Ba'n'kia) w'hich was ffJrmed 'by ~ meIg,0.[- "o,f- e:.o-C,.o.n c·..,~n,c1;:] vu'n" ~:-:,-, R"o,d' Fl'g_ '0' R'~I't-O', a. '~e, uy. ,.'.. form.er IMP chief and, Spanish e'c,ono'my minister with little retail banking experien,c,e..]t has s(:ale :in im:portant re,gions like Ma,drid ,and, Valencia~ The lbank ,has room to slash costs: it, aims to cut €so,om by 2013~]f B,.ankia raises t'he n,ew fWId St its core capital 'will be just ov'er '10,%., But investors 'worry that B,a'nki.a ,also has on.e of th,e ~,argest,property-~,oan, portfolios in,the co,untry: Its most toxic ,assets have be'en mov,ed into ,B,!' A, ,at
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hold in 'g. com anv that ow-'nsao ·'0' ·f{j.Jlof tJ-j .~ , .u",n,Y!t;(l.· Ban IITl'a' a d ,t'h'a." t .11n tur-...... ow ned. ~,~the an . at '~'s ." i n ~ uy seven cajaS' ..Bankia is not on the hook for potential losses at:the holding company But if EF A needs cash-for exam ple, to repay €4~5billion borrowed from, the :FRQiB,=it may' have to sell more Bankia stock in the future, which could depress the share price, And Bankia itself still has nearIY':€38 billionof real-estate loans and foreclosed as sets; 16,.,5'%, of these loans are 'f.i,ll .... ead.. non-perfo mntns a .. that sha re d '00" ~n' will 'rise as house prices fall further Another worry is that outside funding is hard to come 'by for all banks, incI'uding Bankia ..:De:posits hav'e b'le,com,e' d,earer and banks are shrinking their ba] an.ice'=' she'ets to me'et d.ebt redemptions", Relianlce on fundi.ng from, th,e iE'uf.opean Central Ban'k :isicl:im b i'ng again.~ Everything has its price'~Bankia p],ans to s e']] ttseJf at a discount' of up to .54:% to '~ .. .. ItS. b 0.0 1c.va!iue' (+Inc 1u·dO- tlh e new cap ~,.ling taIt Thafs 'beneat'h its peel gro'up of ,coln'metcial banks and,lowerthan t'he o~,8 times b,oo'k, valu,e of C,aixaB;a'rlk~the ' k- ,; I, ,; -' " '.' ·"f: L· C' ,,1!..... b anJ.ng.' b'USine..ssoa~n.xa" ,at ue.,·t-t-,· I_er regarded eaJ~,w'hilch was ,due to, ]jst on
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Brian Moynihan, of America's boss, had vowed to engage in "hand to hand combat" with investors suing to recover losses on mortgage-backed securities I(MB,S.S) peddled 'be:for,€;the housing market collapsed, He- had, even likened them, none too diplomatically, to buyers of a Chevy who wanted it to b'e a Mercedes, In the end, though, BofA rolled over surprisingly' quickly in ord er to relieve the worst of its housing-related, headaches, a P'IfJIduct of its ill-advised purchaseof 'Countrywide, a gung-ho mortgage lender, 'The 'bank. will pay $8.~5bill ton to. investors in. more than 5:,0,0 Countrywide-linked securitisations who had claimed the loans breached basic underwriting standards, The deal is backed 'by the loans' truste e, Bank of New York Mellon and 22 of the

'worry other lenders.

biggest out-of-pocket money' managers, ineluding lS.~,ackRock and "'MM,C'O'j The forceful involvement of these big

was on.the cards" Yet-the only two previOUS withdrawals from the oil-savings bank, set 'up in the 'wake of the oilcrises of the 1970S~ come at times of more had. obvious emergencies+in the aftermath of' Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. and, of Hu-rricane 'Katrina in 20'05~ One reason for the move is that the

day israrely a bad iid:ea;;Raiding the piggy' bank often is; as the ]nternational Energy Agency (IE,A) may yet discover Onlune zsrd the rich-world energy consumers' club surprised markets by announcing that its 28 members would re ease som barrels of oil over 10 days from theirreserves-with the United Sta tes providing half the total, 'The lEA cited, the disruption to oH supplies resulting from the uprising in Libya and th e need. to. provide a Usa ft landing" for the global economy, The de ci s.i.0 n to dip into reserves. 'was unexp ecte d, although it did, not: com e entirely without warning Both the IlEA and Barack Obama had hinted in recent 'weeks that action to ta ckle high, oil prices

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from a production cartel) that is pretty

rich, But whetherthe move was really .' ,. necessary ts questionab b·1e. The high oil price was already doiing itsjob of rationing demand, And Saudi
Arabia the only country 'with meaningful spare production capacity, had broke n ',: ith ..the '0="-0" h' aw" ks l_e d' b y,I,' , an" d'" Wl~_ _.Le .. F E'.. '.L _S; ;.. ran,t " pledged to supply additional crude t.o,

agree terms. So wa s the fact that the, Federal Reserve Bank of New 'York was a plaintiff thanks to securities inherited in the rescue of A.I[i~~ And for aJ.~his combative rh1 etori II;,;..~.: M' r .M oyn h n .I_ been,.J keen *n .' I' ",IV: I', as JL~i" -,I'. I~.!V draw a. line under B,ofAtS problems slnce 'lira" in "g' 0, v' er from the ha 'PI~~"S's -K-: en 1- ew 'I" 'S r ,S' k ,~v !Ii~ _ months ago, He, has shoved dodgy loans into at "bad bank" andl restructured key businesses, while completing the m'nte'gration of ,M:errfU :Lynch, an investment bank acquired during the crisis", Analysts saw MB,.s, lawsuits as the 'biggest of the legacy risks dragging the bank's share price below its book, value ~ Some dangers remain .. The settlement deals with much of the Countrywide dross 'bum' 1m doesn 't cover loans hand ed lby' other :S,OfA units or those securitised after being sold to third p1artiesi Merrin. faces $n bflUon of :res:idential-mortgage ,e .ai"ms" reickons Christoph,er wh,aJe:n. of Ins~itu~jo:nalRis1{ A'namyti cs, a r.,atin.gs firm~ B,ofA stili has ~.ots of haggling to d.o 'w<it.h Fanni!E: Mae ,an,d Fred,dfue Ma,c~ the h,o'using= fin.an,ce ag,encies th,at ,guarante'ed. pUles of duff loans; an.d. with p,riv,ate bo:n,d ins:ure:rs", Th.e' fi.na1 'bill 'wiH, 'b,e far high.e:r tha:n. mhe chie.q'ue' 'wlrmtt,en this w',eielt~ Th,e b,Bl'nit ))~.ans moO, set as:i die ,at fUr~her $u 'billion for 'morm'g,atge-relat,ed ,eh,argies ,and t"h~nl(s.anoth!er ;$5 , biUmon 'maY' 'be 'ne'e,de,d on tOPI of that~ though give'n the 'w,aywardness .of BofA'S
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conflictin Libya; which is denyingworld markets around 1~5m barrels a day' of exp orte d oil" is not likely to end soon", But although the oil price hurtled above $125 a barrel in April, .it: then settled. back to around $,ns and. had begun to fall further, The lEA seems to be takingpre-emptive action to plug an approaching supply gap, as seasonal demand picks 'U,P in the northern hemisphere during the "driving season", Ihe Organisation of Petroleum EX-' porting 'Countries (OPEC):iS unim-

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make up for the- Libyan shortfall, The Saudis were told about the lEA 'move and may not have objections: they too feel that the oil price is too high to sustain buoyant demand, And if prices fall ton far for comfort the taps win be turned off on the fresh supplies they have offered, But the ]EA'S move still sets a terrible precedent, It adds to the uncertainty and volatility in oil markets, according to B"i]l Farren-:Pri-ce of PPI:; a consultancy Rich countries are now clearly prepared to use oil stocks because they do notlfke the price, 'The lEA has dramatically lowered the bar for when it might next intervene and has depleted its emergency stash in the event of more upheavals,

past estimates, H could be more, The: prices paid at the time for Countrywide and MeI'~ riU were, rut turns lout, J ust de posi ts,

The c:ap.itulatU,on 'w~n 'WOJr~l omh.erIa.rge lban'ks even thou,gh m:heYlare ~ess expose,d th.an. Hof A., which s.e':tivi,ces on'e in five Am,erica.n 'moIt·g.81g,es,~ The two 'most vu]-"',-b' ~,-,-,-,1·7"-1-1,·- argo an: : JP-M,'.org.a.n ,-,d' .. ' n.era .~ are '1we, . s. F"",lIle. Chas,e~again~ largemy thanks to (:rilsi.s~leJa acq uisru.tions (.of Wa-cho'"vID.a and. B!ear Ste.arns~ respecti,re:lliy).,. Bea:r Sh~:ar..nsalon,e :faces S·lS lbUlmo:n,:in se',[urities-fra. u,d clai:m.s out 'Df a:n. industry total of rough.ly $20'Oi billion; ,calcumate·s Mr Whalen" Worse; n.ew legal chaill~e'ng,es ,aloe,em,erg~ng ,all t"he time" the, Ia t,€st from th,€ ie,de'ra.ill
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'bUlion and $,20 bHUon .aspart of a s,ertlem.e:nt with stam,e; B.itor.neys.-gene'ralli over fOr{~;iC~,Os.ure pr,actic,es (r.e'mem'b"er robosilgnin,g?)" Andl tha.t's t.o, say 'nothing o.f furth,er ].oan loss,es. as house 'p:rices fall", Mr M,oyn.ih.an dese.rves p.r.ais,e ~orbitin,g' th'e: ·b'uU.et o.n MBS;S~ H:e is d.-ete:rmmne,d to e,nd talk of h~s :fi.r,m :h.aviln.,g replaced 'C~.U= ,g;roup as America~s cru.'UIn.sfuesm 'bank~ Still~ it 'w:iU 'be [JIuite som'e tim,e befbre :JlJ(lfA itself loo~ks more Ute a. g~eaming s-C~,a.ss than. a lumiJ!er.ing omd. bange:r~

agency that: oversees credit unions, some of W'hID.C'h were felled by bad mortgage investments .. Mortgage servicers are also 'brac.m,g for c,ombined fines of be:mween. $,5

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BERLIN

The,rule .. ook governing International finance is,slliowly tilin:g' shape b

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now putting cherries on, mhe icing on the marzipan on the cakes," Some worry' about perverse consequences mf SlFIS are assumed to 'be,less I ike~'Y' fai because they hold more capital, ~'o will be, watched more closely tlnd, will have been officially certified as too important to go under, "You will have created an automatic list of preferred counterparties," says 011,e bank boss, That might enable the the most important global banks hold an SIllS to 'borrow more cheaply extra.l~'1,.,5%of equity, the gold standard of A related WO'IJ~, reckons Davide Taliente of Oliver Wyman, a consulting firm, capital, Some details of these rules still . h , ,ave to b e t=, ras, h e d out." In d I .dIng" w,h,-lC__ ID,$ that the current methodology of select_ th . 'I . ,I_u " . ... . ,Ih banks will be named as systemically Im- m ng S,],f'IS may not distinguish clearly portant financial institutions i(SIf'IS.) on, a enough between the chances of a bank gogloba] scale, Yet on capital, ,at least, the end mg bust and the cost of cleaning up them ess if it: does..For example, banks that are of the race is now in sight The agreement on a, surcharge for the SIP,MS comes on top organised into di screte subsidiaries may' of already-agreed "Basel 3,~' Iuill!esrequiring be less costly to save than 'banks withmore centralised structures. because specific proall banks to raise thei t core-capital buffers blems can be, contained without necessarto at least'7% oftheir risk-weighted assets. Tlhe proposal has futs cntics. JPMo:rgan Uy affecting the whole group, T,hms ought to be encouraged, yet rut might also count Chase argues that the minlmum standards will make :it hold 4,5'% more capital than :it agai nst b anks :if they are- mess able to, move did during the cris-is,0 bvi ating the, need for capital easily between units to bolster bits. that get into trouble, extra, padding, In addition to capital, banks ,A further warty is whether the rules will also have to hold mote U,gumid assets to safeguard against ,3 funding freeze and re- will be implemented uniformly Fierce lobduce their reliance on fickle sources of fi~' hying is tallcing ,p~acet ·with s'f:'v'e:ral big nan,cing''! 'The cum,'ulativ'le mmp'Q'ct on co-st: banks~ mainly in, Asia 'b'ut a~so- a. few in :Eu= a.n d ris k is ,diiliA:ullitto ,asse ss.~ ~(A'n 'en,o r- rop,e; arg uing th,a:t th!ey sh O'uld be Ileft: o,;f :m,(')u'S am,ount has .alf!eady been !done~,~t th e list of S,MF'IS or I)ut ,on,its i!owest rung b e-says. t.he, h,e'a.d,of a big ,glob am 'bank~ j;'~'We'~I,e ,cause' the-ir bu,sinesses ar,e 'mainl y fOI(u's.e',d
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AJlCH,ING the world's regulators re= _ _ wri te mhe rul es of finance ].$ a. bit like supporting toddlers in an egg-and-spoon race V.O'U W' 'a- 't- th em ro get to ,th, finishlng JJ ','. . '. n .', line but for every step forward there is a fumble, a squabble and lots of mining about, Yet bit b,y bit the main chapters of th e financial rule-book are being written, The most: recent bit of progress 'was an, agreement in Basel on, June 25th, to make
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on their horne markets or are: skewed. tO wards supposedly safe businesses such as retail banking, Ameri-can banks throw barbs am-the' way that EUI'OP eans calculate the riskines s of their assets, w hich affects the amount of capital they have to hold, Worries that rivals will bile handed an unfair advantage by' uneven implernentation go deeper than capital (see tab le), European banks now face, 'stricter rules on han Ameri pay tan ..vmencan ones, e. M,orexample l~hThe .. rule'S havre, the merit of aligning the, interests of bank employees with shareholders but European banks say they are being outbid by rivals 'when they compete for emlPloyee s in Asia in p articular,
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More dramatic snll emerging markets produced more than fourfifths of global real GO'P growth over the past five years, Important though these countries are, many commentators still ten , to ump t'tnern til, -',-'th"ierm a way t' ']h ey,,'never wou lId,' ,WID,,, h '~, ',:' ~t' s 1. ~ ~,-, ,d ~I- '1 ,I oge - '." devel oped economies ~Headline S about I +sl,nginflation rampant bank lending and a flood of capital inflows might appear to suggest:that virtually al] emerging economies are overheating, In realily" some are red-hot and, others ate only lukewarm ..An analysis , by' 'The Economist tries to identify the hottest spots .. 'The chart shows our ranking of 27 emerging economies according to their risk of overheating, We take each economy's ternperature using six differentindicators. The, scores from these indicators are then summed to produce, an overall index; 1,0,0 means that an economy is red-hot on all six measures, (I,he'ranitm,gs for ,all of the individual indicators, can, be found on econom st.com.) Smart' with mflation, This has jumped more, sharply' in emerging economiesthanin the developed world, to anestimatedaverage rate of 6,.7% in May~ But itranges from a mo,d,estl.7% in Taiwan to. :20'%, or more in Vietnam, Venezuela and Argentina (using privM.eKu'ry rislng' ate-sector estimates for the Iatter rather than, the government's OIUJ fined, temperature gauge is the external balance, A widenmg lower but dubious figure), Most of the pickup in inflanon overthe current-account deficit can be at classic sign of overheating, as.dopast year was due to higher food prices, 'which have a bigger share of the consumer-price basket than in rich countries ..So if mesne demand outpaces supply TUrkey looks particularly worfood prices stabilise, hea d I ine inflation wi I ~ rYID'ng, w'ffit,1 its. deficit expected to. jump to ![li()'Jnf-- 6'D- c- this n ='o.,;o;'iir- ,- . In 00 7'" to Y'!f;iQ, U'P' from fall later this year, In Chi na core inflation i I: (exc Iu dllng f00 d an:d energy ")is on,I 2~4· , % Til e 51zzmi n 9 seven Ri sing current-account deficits in B-razU y Em er~ g',-,mn r ket overh eati n gin dJex'*~latest a and :In,dbl also suggest domestic demand but it m s a more worrying 54S% in Brazil and is growing- '10.0 fast, over 8% in India, Where growth is bumping o 2.0 ,40 60 ,80 Adding up the six scores reveals seven up against capacity constraints and, labour Argentina markets are tight; food inflation may spill hotspots where most of the indicators ase Braz][ flashing red: Argentina, Brazil, .HOI,ng over into wages and other prices" HOillg Kong Kong; India, Indonesia, 'Iurkey a!nd, VietIndia Ind (l nesia nam, Argentina is the only economy Spare room ilJrkey w here a.U,six indica~.o:rs .are, on 're·dl~ b'ut O'W second indicator tries to gauge spare Vletnam Icapacity by' ,compari ng a. cou'ntry';s a.v,era,g-,~ Brazil ,and India ar'e nom'fatr'beh~nd,., China, Sirnga pore G'D!P' :growth rate sin,c.'e 20,07 with :its ,g,rowth often th:e fo,cus of ,con,clerns abo'ut O've'f= iflhaJi[and 'h·,o,~,t~n· .~ '1"'5'. 'w~ ~QII-do·::-rn th~' r.~ . [III . '_ )~''~n', the . rate in th.e p,r,evious t:len y,ears,., Growth 'has g" -:-'-::' , w,u, , ~ --~'n,lli'-'~n'g 1, .. Egypt PerlLl leXc.le'e d.,ed its long,=tenn, tre'nd in Ar:g'enti'na., amb"er :lIOne'", p,artMyth,anks to m:ore' aggres= Ph~LiPPl nes B,razilli, [n,dia. an,d i'n,do:nesia,~ 'b'ut is 'well Dle= sive mo:n,etary' Hghte:nin,g,., Russia" Mexico, 1(lhile ~,O'w'trend (su,g,g'estin,g' amp Ie sp are cap,aci= an d Sou~h ,Afri.ca are in t'he gre:!e:n ~zone~ ,..1 China 11t.y) in H ungary~ th,e C,~z'e:ch.R~ep,u,lblic~, . :Russia sugg,esting ~ittl risk of' over,hleating~ e C OIJ,Omll..~I!JIla .-==_:=:_ ~ ~~ ~ Poland an!d Sou,th Afir.ica~C'h~.na,'~s gro'wth has also. RQ,d-,=,h' 0' ~ .i9co" ,nI 0' m--'I~ilol9C' 'w','l'ii1I'h' nlliQ'-g·'!Jit-~I-V;Gil~~l ]11 Saudii A r.fIJ.bi.~ bielen, sUghd.y b,elow trend,~ ,An e'lcono,myts :int,erest rat:es n,eed to. r.aise- them,. Fiscal South Korea pote,ntmaJ. ,growth, rat:e may have :in,creased, po~icy msalso too loose, in, :m,any pl,u:es .. VenezlLI,eila ov,er time" tha'nks. to rleforms~ H',owe'v,eI, Budget defiH:its h.av'le be'e'n r,edu,ce'd slight y RILlJS:s,i a South Afrka tight ma.'bO:UI m,tlJkets (our thIrd indicamo,:rJ sfnce 20.0'9' 'but th~s is largely' b e,ca use [z'ech Replu blk ,confitm that several e,cono:mies :h,(lv,e 'been s~ro,ng growth h,as lhooste,d t'ax te-ven'ues,. M~xico n..-----.--grow'in,g uns:usta&na,b,My fast In ,Argentil'na.~ O'n .at gen,eral=gov'errun,e'nt d,efinition~ six Pa,kistan ~' "'11 ~ B,razilli, lndonesia. ,and. Hong 'Kong un1em01l '1h-,e sleve:n aIe soll. ru'nning ,qulIlte ~II JIla.rge Taiw.an 'I MaLaYSTI'a ploym,ent is w',eMm lbeMow its t:,en,~year avet= d fi ellts (-' 0 f' G D,P in I'n,d"I : ~ ~or examp, ,e, _,E. ~ .,8% Ul" Hungary only Hon,g Kon,g"s ,go.v,e:rnm,e.nt is in sur~ .ag!e~ B:razil"sj ob.ill!ess rate is at a re,co:rd low *8, -.:'" dl,-n_. ~nfil'"::il~' G-IUP' 0, ,-/,•, ~ IJ " , _.. 0" w~h . pM us", Gi'v'e n that thej r ,e!(:on,o.mie's are an!d 'wa.ge s arle .accelli,e-rating~ U iIiIeml'p~!ili1e~t. ,credit g row~~., S(ll!l~·t@s:The EconornJst; ~~Il,lnwfe!st rau:s amid ChelIiil9@' i 'The fburth sympto.m, of' overheating', bnom~ng,- allli !of them should ,atrguably be i n CUJrN~nt.. acco iJllt ~~[a,1J1i 'rlaDon'al :d.atl slues: 1MF .an,d on'e of th.e most important; is excessive runn:ing a surplusi DrBlve-rs who. ig,n,ore re·d Interactive.: {:om p.g.re '~he.se'emergl~' ng ,ec-on 0 mr]e's. ,across ,cre·,d~t ,e,xp',fl'nsion'J 'which ca.n le,ad mn, ,asset 'w,Brrning lights on th,e d:ashb"oard 'risk ,at s"e~ six different lndlka 1to rs at Econo'm 1st.,("0m/ove:rhea.t rfuous b,[e,at t,down~ b'ubbmies as w,eU as ID'nfl,atjo:n~The b"es.t mea1

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66

The space shuttle

Into the sunset

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the rss) An d although ·N···· .:·AS··A··· America's space agency, is a civilian outfit, the American air fa rce to 0it a keen in terest funthe .','." .. s huttl .e'~. .- cargo b. -I . .was, designec.'. to. h 0-ld utt . Its " ..-... . '.' ,.~.ay ,"" :, -, . ,. . .' d . ...- . ..-. ..spy C"'!lt l"11 .w..IIl . .....,~ alth '_'-:'U'_' gh. the A' m erican m ill~1·t.Q·S- c ,I~, 'O II '. . . tary maintains its own space operation (see box on third page) .. The shuttle was to 'be a multipurpose ship!that would carry all 'o.f America's govemment and commerci aill cargoes into space ...ts biggest sel ing-polnt was its reusI ability unlike other rockets which are discarded after 'on,€ firing, Not having to build a fresh rocket for every mission. ought to have brought down the cost of reaching 0[-= bit, But a fuU.y reusable spacecrafs proved ~.,...l 'h too hardto b ild W'h" h-llS'-W-'Y' t-he s lhU.t.t"1es buitc me early a h'uge ext!ern.aill fue]. tan.1{ thatm is ditch,edl into t:he ooean, after ·each, H.igh,t~ Th.e sh'ut:de,ts e-n.. gin.es and the tiles that prote-Iet i:t fr,om the he-at .of Ie-,entry prove·d. expensi"v'e to m.aint.ajn, .a.nd.,divvying-·u.p 'work amo.ng d~ffe-ren.t contra,ctors .ad.d.,ed to the· Icosts" E'ngin.e ers told. 'Co·n.g.re s-s tha.t s;h'uttle miss:ions 'mig'ht tly u:p to ,once, a. ·w·e·ek.~la ~ow.ing NASA. to ·amo.rtis'e its develoOp:m,ent ... '
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• costs over lots of launches; :in the event there have been only a handful each year, Estimates for the CIOSm of a. shuttle launch vary; 'bum N'A$:A claims about $4s:~oma shot, Some mdependent observers reckon it is nearer :$15: billion. 'Th,emarket for launching satellites ~,s murky, but by' comparison Russia's expendable Proton, rockets (which are, almost unchanged since theioeos and which have a. similar cargo cap acity to the shuttle) are thought to cost around a quar-

The future, in theory a,t'le,ast So, although the shuttle-which has been the icon of America's space effort: for a. ,gen.= eration=wil] bile missed, harder heads will be glad to see the decks cleared. last year. E'arack Obam ou tli ne d ~,~.!!!,-.!IlU n'-- cor th h Is 'p'~ __ s u,=.1 future of America's space programme, Its most striking feature is to de egate the humdrum task of ferrying po!e;,ople and equipmentto ow-Earth orbittothe private sector, 'Rocketry ts a mature technology, sions to use Apollo hardware, one suffered a fatal accident on the ground during tests and NASA has always relied on using con= and one was almost most in space), But the tractors to build its rock,et;s a:nd s:p,acecr.aft shuttlli,e 'was n,ot sold t.Oo th,e pu bli,c as ,an e'x,~ In future :plrilvate 'firms will run, th,e mis~ p'erim,entaJ. craft Wors!e; the reports mnllt'o :sions as welt La.t,e:r ~his y,eaI two sp,ace,craft~, n,e whi,ch h,aLS b,een d,esmgne,d by Oro the two .aocidenm-s :sla.te d N,AS:A'S rna.nagleb~taJ. Sci-e:n,oe:.s; ,at V~rgwnla-bCJls,ed firm, ,a,n,d ment: style: a.nd internal c.ulture; a.,cc.us]n,g ,anoth,er b~f' Spl-aC1eX:, ~ ,a 'Calmfo'rnian Icomthe agency' of comp,]"Bl,cency an,d rec'klless:J, ',s-t~r'll:'! " pa~y run 'by ·ElOonM,usk,~ ,an int,ero,et' le'ntt,e;n,g:s-(;i' 'B: 0 t'h d' l'!'ll:'!a' UI~t- ,th'... ilf\t;':'!itlor'lff,s ('i-'oc·:n·111i"'1u',d,od' -', '-, I' I I, 'h ,_, . b'- ee- 'n1-',-'"."""den~'s- ---a ]. .I ",-' ._.':.o " h-a'pp , e'n ,~ ad _-:_. ace]' -,"-,,,,.,,Wi,-' !·t~+ng'. ,,- ,-', _. ~JIJ., ,"~. -t P,r~ n£!l'ur w·-~:---:-~ml m· '''1II{-:-~~ C""'!Iilg_ "0' 'rul n" tdfii; ~·h,oI c, Cl' 'Ih~r,o =w'~---:-~r~ ('i-C'ui;!!,~:s,g,s ~!OOI '0:-' n~ '-W--:::-:~I~'~'h~ The hop,e is t:h;at SUit craft will so'on, be: '5·U' til "~ ,8lble to. carry hum a.ns to,o~ a.n d ,at a far low'1993, m'n'-'orb it repa.ir of th,e Hub ble S,p,atlee 'er 'co'St tha.n NASA"'S efforts.., Teh~:sc:o:pe; without astro'na.uts t'O fit: n.'ew ],e:nses,~th,e ,en,ormou:sly' expensive sateIUte Ube-rate:d from the 'hurd,en, of having to would, hav'e belen a flop,~ Dlisasters apart, se,rvice' the- ISS (YJ:hich Mr 'Obam,a, 'wants tOo mh,eshuttle gen,fI'atUy' s'uc"ceeded in at ru,e',ast keep 'un,til :20'20'~:six: years ~,onge'rthan OI~"gj~ o:n,e' as:p ec.t of its :missi,on: ffi.ts r,egu~,ar nally lP~,ann,edl~ NASA, wUl 'be free t:1O 1(00~,aun,che:s (not: to :me,n,U,on, stunts such. as ,centIate !on ~,ofU.ergoals~ in. 2:010" whe'n Mr flying ,at 77-y,ear-old Blstron,aut, and, ,as sorm'- o b,ama oumm~'nie'd. his idea$~ .1,·I!e' spoke" s,o:m.e~I ,e,d .senators ,and Icon,g)',essm,en) mBd,e sp,at,ce whla~ ': ~I'gu~l'-'- lo"f a 'm·'~n'n~dltr'I"'p- to, ,Dl. n',o'a'fv.Dl.,= y~, trav'e:m s'eem f..out~'ne~ almost 'm'u'nd:an,e= E.arth astero~d~ to be foH.ow'le,d at some 1111= s;pecfu'fied date 'in th,e '2010S b,y the 'ultim,ate: which help"ed to d,ampe:n, pubUc :inte.rest S'pa,ce-Icad,et dr,eam-a :ma:nn,ed mission to ,A c:omp:romise te:nds to' ],eav,e ev',eryone Mars,., To ~'h,at end, NASA will s:pend, b;il= unh,app'y; and. 30 'ylear,s on s.o iill: P rov,ed 'with ~h,e :s;hutUIe:,., The !costs ,con.tin,u'e: d t,o :r.anl~d,e Hons of doU,a,rs die,v'eloping ,n1ew ,e:ngi.n'E:S, with th.'os,e who thought man:ne-d sp,u:e prope:illlants; hfe'=sup,port syst,ems an,d th!e
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ter of N A, SA'S figure for. the shuttle ~ 'Then there was safety In, 1986,~after the failure of a gasket ~none of Dims. booster rockets, the shuttle 'C"hanenger disintegrated in mid-air shortly after lift-off ldlling its crew - - --- -- it -- -- - - - ~- of seven, I'.n 200]"" as- 1- was re ernt ermg Earth's atmosphere" Columbia broke apart over - exas, 11[' later emerged that the sP'Q.OE:= craft's heat shield had been damaged IOn launch, letting superheated air inside and *,e" rin 'g ffi t- ~r'~!!!!"!! F·or-an exp eri m e.n ta'· 1 sp,u 0-' "-, a ~ n art plane, two disasters m,13S missions is 'not a terrible record (m'h,€; Apollo project was far more dangerous: of the 16, manned misI ,- :" " ',' ',,:_, ,- I -.' ",= ,

flight a waste of money and three decades spent stuck in, low-Barth orbit never stopped frustrating those who wanted to .c " . M' lie :golaf th ,er~...Ich la,e1 G'IIill .n,~:a .. - !ffi_:__·- . .f' ]tormer-,',NASA boss, argued in, 200;7 that the shuttle had cost so much money and time that it had held back the agency for decades, Had N,ASA persisted with, the much bigger Sam~ urn rockets that powered the moon missions; argued Mr Griffin, launch costs would be lower; the agency would have: had more money for science and. deepspace exploration, and astronauts might have visited Mars already,

like..Even the shuttle win live on, funsome sense, sin,e€! the Sp,ilC€!Launch System-the

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unromantic name of the be efy rocket needed to 100ft astronauts. and cargoes 'into high orbits or farther into the so lar systern=will be built partly from recycled shuttle parts in. an effort to save money and 'use' familiar technology And spending' will be managed through fixed-price contracts inste ad .of th e cost-p lus" deals th at helped to inflate the price of the shuttle, !I-' ,e,~ I m soun. d s senstIble.J m th eory ,ut not 18 I D "he -:--:---: 1:-'-.'1 ':~ '. .t" everyone ts convince d ,~- esprte- m.'-_:__ warm words of the nation's leaders, America's mann ed space-fllgh t, programme has. been 'be cal me d in Earth orbi t for de cade s. 'Th!e' - - - - . - II,-- ---_ .. - - - ,all ~ - -- -- - - - -t r' G e o.r,ge, W"'.' B'us h...' er,a c· on-- s t'I.l~11- t' :UJn pIOjl , .' e'. c. , for instance (later can eel led, 'by' MI' Obama), 'was supposedly going to be a return mission to the moon followed by a trip to Mars, It was described officially as "Apo 11a. on steroids" ~but after the budge tary details became clear, one former NASA manager g umly amended that to "Apollo on, food stamps" ~ Critics of the, Obama :p ,an point to vagueness and, lack of detail, contrasting - ---- '_ - -I' -- -- '1 ith - - .- h IS spee,c h es- un f- avoura.. b_'y WI,,: J0 h n ](,en n,f,dy's 'clear an,d specific d,e:mand in 1961 for a mo,o:n,missi.on 'be'~oreth,e d'eca,de' was out Such refe-re nee s to P'ilS t g~,or~,e's aJl'ie sym,pt{J;ms of a b:roade:rpllo'bl em~ Space ennu'II!..-' B'- Ith-'uC!'~a:,e:t-~ n'io'l:l"'Iff~,i"'~an-. c!' B', nd' ~'h~ IDJ I"r .!J. wmost half B ,ce'nmury late'r~ stiH, living f'nth,e e'h' ad- ... o,fl:-,thl~ m'- a'-g-n~'~c'lOn'" ,~Ul Q-:-c,Omi ,Ii::'f!;nts ow ,:],' .. ~=---:- ... .., J!I;;;. '''111'··;1,....1·' ..,;;;;v.... of m'he ,Apo]lo programme-,a,c'h'iev,em,en.ts 'which s,eem a.l th,e mOore incr,edi'b ,e as the y'eats pass,., Yet A:pol10 'was a, (:re,atU['e of a. uniqu,e s,et of historical ,cir,comstan,ces th,at are u:nlilke:illy tOo b,e r1ep"eatedih T:he, sp,ace .raice was an, o 'utg.rowm:h, of th,e deve]opm,en,t of 'b,aUffismm,c-mmssfl'E: te,chnololg~ rut was fUleruled 'by ,coilld:-w,ar p,aJJranoia. about Soviet s(:i,enc€ and it 'hBljp'p,en,ed at a. time 'w,hien Ameri,c,a.~s, ~.e'at,di€!'rS'were 'wining to spen,d huge amounts on prQiP,a,gand,a~ on W!!I;;;..lII.~ rY'l"t±.I1""S '!!i'od EV ~o.n 'df'h'6 th,o,iif'\O ---o.iil'\Q iL.:L' lh.;; -, u :'; doub te:ts-not: ,east" In prlva.t:,e" Tl' .L\.lenn,e-dY'-hi-" m.se:ll'~-f.'~ But his as sassin,atilon s,ealed the deal, fot w:'hat ,p'olitician 'would dare to aibandon th!E:m,artyred, preside:nfs goaJ? A mor.e fun,dam.entaill ,o~je-Ictmon is ,'hat :ma.n:ned sp,a_,c1e flight :is a waste of tru'me.'Th,e flights. are' expens;ID.'ve (at thie heighm' of :its CA' lC"u-c~I'-l"n,g :l'n, I .. Jl.{ ,-, A-'P'lo,~llo·-~'~1'p' om" lP ~ . ~,;:], arI1n'U'n' dl 4' -401 of to' ItI-~l g" '"o·'-v·· ~ ~rnm··· ~'n't ""p.' Q'nldl" - -) - --d - - -- - ---- --b - _--Ing a.n,- d ange,rollS, an--d"- th een,e--- fit s are ha.rd ~:om'eaSllIe.. Eve,n with .5,0 y,e,aIs of technoillogi,cal ad,= c d'-' a- 's--: - um- -" ][~n-- gc ".:], ..de q'-' U'"-lI,t,g, ·C''!aIS h- a- nd: "v'gln- ,I pee sc s 1,_ . I' : = '= _ I I: :pob,tical wfuU~ a Mars missio:n wouilld, lbe harder than, the 'Ones to t:he m,oo'n,., It 'would ta.ke six months to r.ea.c:h the re"d plctn,et; e:,a:mpaLre"d with, three; ,days to the moon,~ Among the, w'ay t'he ,astran,Ruts wn,ullid 'b,e 'bombarde,d 'by cosm~c 'radtation and. :rlisk b1ein:g' baked by un:predii,cta.ble solar flares ~ Upo:n arrival it: w'Ould tal\ce m,any min,u,tes for I,adio :messages to reach mission, Icon- ..~
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and TItan; one of Saturn's moons, Robots are relatively' cheap, hardy and leave no. grieving families fuf something goes wrong, None of this means that space willmarter less ..Earth orbit is and, will remain a valua bl e place, as the swarms of sate] ites that circle the planet attest, Evenythin,,g-

kind ofrobotic missions, that have successfully roved about on the surfaces of Mars

the astronauts would have to deal 'with, emergencies without external help .. Better" say the doubters, to spend, the money on scientific missions, such as Hubble's successors, and leave exploration to th.'€
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On th,e other hand, space cadets are an optimistic lot. Robert Goddard, an early rocket pioneer and one of the fathers of manned space flight, endured decades of ridicule and died 'before his dreams became reality ,A few hope for. a, modern rerun of the space race, with China or 'per= haps India providing the competition, Squint and it' is just about possible to se e

The mi,l:itary uses of space

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from, logistics to, farm f ng, military surveillance, telecoms, weather monitoring, 'rv broadcasts and much more rely on, satellites, 'This business will C,O ntinue to prosp er, rockets will continue to fly and the humble business of 'using space tOo improve life and make money back on Earth will carry on. Dither space agencies, notably Rus Stl e .u[-.-' "110 to ~i continue 'P:V'P.' 1oring: ''C 6" ul ,..;;J.-.!.. '.I', <~ Russia talks .of a robotic base on, the, moon, and unmanned trips to th!€ surface' of Venus and the moons of Mars, Eve:n manned space missions may' have a commercial future of sorts, if companies like' Virgin IG',a-' lactic succeed in ferrying touri sts to the edge of space for $,200,0'00i a seat, But the heroic phase of space exploration, with chiselled-jawed astronauts venturing where no man has gone before, mspiri ng schoo children and defending democracy (or socialism), is now ,8. thing of th,€; p,ast ,Mr !Ob.am,(1[~splan m,ay r-evi~aU.s,e 'N ASA, an,d, se'n,d Am,ermcan as,tron,aruts mnto tb,e soiar s.yste-:m on,c.,t;!,a.gain .. But the age:n,'=' c~y:"shistory ,atS a poHt~"catm ~ootb,atll s'u,gg'lests :itis 'unlikely:
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programme. 'In practice, the distinction is not always so dear-cut N,ASA, has done plenty of work for the Pentagon, But America's armed forces maintain ,3. separate space programme of their own" largely out of thepublic eye, Although hard numbers are difficult to come by~ it is thought that the military space budget has matched or exceeded :NASA 's every year since, 1982~ China, moon All the signs are the t it is. roaring Since then five more "taikonauts" as, Chiahead. The air force's. public space budge t, (as opp ose d to the secretpart) will nese astronauts are sometimes called" have been into orbit, China has bigger ,81m= increase by nearly 10'% n,ext year, to $8,.7 billl on, with much of it going o:n a, new bitions and, besides launching a slew of generation of 1'"0 ckets, Bruce Carlson, satellites to attract business for its Lo ng dire ctor of the N ational Re connaissance Marich rockets, it plans to build avery small Office, the, secretive outfit that runs. space station of its own, starting later this year, An unmanned sampling mission to. America's spy satellites, announced i'n zoio th' a,' hi e agen ~\1; 'W':" e em b arkin g' on' t .r"U · . th e moon is pen cilled in for '20'17" with the 'i~themost aggressive launch schedobjective of gathering hmar soil and returning it. to ,Earth,., 'By 202S th,€ goa] is to ule. .amdertaken in the last 25 years", Much of the mon,ey goes on satelsendl a m,an'ned mission, there,. Imagine' the' lites.-sp"y s,atellites fo.r ·ke'e.ping ta'bs on, s.ymbol ism" wro~ e :S'lu.'c,eStedin g,~ .at slcmother ,eoWltries" co,mm'un.i.ca.ti ons sate~,~ 'ence =.ffu cti'o:n ,Bluth 'or, if in th,e c.o:ming de-= ,ea,d,es. a spa,eecraft ,containin,g' s.e'ver,811 lites :for soldiers to talk t,o ea'ch, olhe,r~an.'d yo'ung Chin,ese (or In,dil,an) astro:nauts w'ere even th,e Global PositioOntng System t.o ru,an,d ,on the ,moon,~ 'w'h.'ere th!e group sa.telllites,~ designe:d toO' guide so~,die:rs and would ,carefully f(d,d away 'the- A'm,eri,ca-n, bombs to thejr targets,~ a-n,dnow expandfl.al,g lP,~,anted, b,y Neil Armstrong a,nd Bu'zz ed to aid, civiJi.an navigat Uon ~ But th B-re ,are more e-xo~Ji,cprol" : Aldrin", a:n,d plaom th!efr own nag in ims sm'ea,d.. Su,eh an a.ntagonistic gesture is unlillc,emy: g)'atmm,es" The air fo:rce runs. on,e' fOI a.n t:i =sate ll1i te warfare,,, de signe,d to d e= Par,allels with thie orilgjnaJ. sp,a(:e r.ac'e !can o,e ov,erb.],O'w',n: after ,81U,~th.'e m.od,ern wormd stro,y or disa.ble en,e-my birds~ Another is very dirffe:re:nt fto,m lh,at.of th,e 195'OS ,and inel'ud,es experimental aircr.aft, such ,as the X"=]7, a cut=,do,wn" u'nmanned de= 196"OS,. A'me,ric.a's rivalry wmth IChin,81 (and sce:n,dard of the spaoe sh'uttle,.,'Th,e air to a Messer ext1ent ]nd.ial is nothID.n,g like th,e force will not saly'·what the X=37 i.sfor~ bfe=.andt-'death stru,gg}e against th!e S ovi et U:nton;o There is non,e of mhe p,ara.nota and, Dine theory i,s tha.t it is a. spy p lane, deiear tha.m marked the e'arlliy,cold war~ ,and illmtsigned to catch savvy targets that know die !desire moO, remurn to it ~~Big scm,enlce';;' ,and, 'h,ow to go ~oground w'h,en spy satelgo.'-v,-,o:rnm·'IQnltc ~'r',o, Aes' .. trUI;e;'~'odn· A:' nd Htes.-whi,ch h,atv,epre,dMctab~e orbits-,are b~ig';=, .. :. ~" sp,ac€ ~s, in s.ome wa,ys, old 'ne'ws,. Eve'n ruf over'hea,d" Another'is th,at it is 'intended the C,hin,esle: ,do ,arriv'e on th,e mo,o:n on to d,e'Stroy' satellites, ,or to drop bombs, sC'h,ed,u'le~ 'it wUl ·be' moOre' tha.n 60, ye,ars. from orb it. sin,e,e th.e lliast Americ.R'ns left Other nations are 'flexing th,eir :mus= :L:UteMr 'Ob,ama:"s as;pira.tions. ~ora M,ars cles~American c"omman,d.ers report that onn- 'n'lll"o']"e..l"'t m1il;("~1'on, C' hi ~n'!JI"'S ''lJilm'b- :I't'I'OUe" 'm' .',"0 y'.II!':"~ China I~gulatrIy fires p"owe:rf1illasers :into is aman, e:arly stage 'Of dlev,elop,m.'ent .andl the the sky; de:mo,nsttatiLng th,eir .a.biliity to dates see:m some'what elastic.~ Chmna stiillID. dazzle 'o.rblind s.ateHite'S~ lLn 2007 a. Chi,n,ese :miss]],e destroyed an o~,d,weather has al small,er mann e d'-spa.c.e-flight :i:nfrastructure, than, Russia. h,as,., It doesn'~m'seem, satellite" ,creating ,at huge fi,eld .o,f orbiting likely t'h,at th e s,:p,ace race w~ sta'rt u,p ,again" 11 d,ebr.is" Afterw,ards, Russia. sp"oke' publicly abou,t its ,HlnH=satellite, we,apons,,, This is, trut if it do e s" lh e decfusmons that ki!ci( it o,ff one: sp,ace .ra.ce' that· is w,eH un,de:r way., will bie: taken in Beijing o,r N,e:w D!elhi" n,ot Wa,shin,gtOon~, D c'~
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some 'broad parallels with the 1960 s: China and India are rising powers, developing rapidly and, outwardly at least, fumm of confiden C:lC" A,' .m eri.w..... , 'S_' u...n ~"~ ca certain w::-- ghed down, 'by foreign misa dventures anda 'misfiring economy China is th,e more advanced newcomer, In 2003, it b ecame only' the third countryto put a human into orbit atop a rocket it: had developed it-self; instead of hitching rides on American or Russian spacecraft, 'Yang Liwei, then a. lieutenant-colonel in the Chmne se ai r force s'P,'e'n ,t h ou rs in sn JIll"
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7'0 R,obel1 Hughe'l, on IRome
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Prosp1ero" our on li ne hlcq on books. arts and C IU ltu re. a p p ea rs ,every day ~ Fo,r ana tysirs and

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they ~'ngesm ritually scraping their teeth by down the trunks of a tree, Marin,at also wants to'uncover the story of a colleague's

death, 'but she soon. becomes engrossed by D:rSwensen's miraculous work", Malina. struggles 'with her new environment; the nightmares from, the Latium

'The caln. of the Amazon lVlP'ENETRABLE forest, strange cultures _ and dangerous creatures-testing man's courage against the worst theft nature can throw at him, or her+have long fascinated storytellers of ,BtU cultures, from the anonymous author of "Babes in the Wood" to J oseph Conrad's "Heart .0,1' Darkness", What wilder botanical battlefield is there than Amazonia? Its vast size and imp ass= able interi or seem to defy exploration, which is the allure for two talented novelists, one British an d the oth er American, h .". ". Bot h test t· .eir protagonists to tne trmr asa h ", way of exploring our continued fascination 'with the rainforest and, the extraordinary power it wields over those who are unprepared or ill-equipped to deal with its mental an.d physical demands, Corruption in "The Devil's Garden", Edward, Docx's third novel, comes ~,n many guises, .DrJohn .For~,eand his small team of researchers lead a. peaceful existence on ,8.. station deep In the, jungle ..His quiet work involves tracki ng ants-a. military society that poisons patches of the rainforest Ohe eponymous devil's ,g,ard.e.ns} to ensure their survival, But the researchers' routine
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Sta.le of WO'li1de[~ B~~l Patchett, Ann

Harper: 3.53 p'oge'S,'; $26,",99~ Bloomsbury:
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shit has to take against malaria, deadly insects, extreme weather and, always, the whispenng darkness. In. bier fear she 'becomes reliant on a young deaf 'boy called Easter, and s oW'~.y· assimilates into the tribe, Ms Patchett tracks Marina's thoughts with. particul ar intuitiveness so that her character's feelings of isolation, fear and self-doubt begin to creep across the reader's own skin, Soon, though, comes the

ness of 'Western

gue of' a local missionary as a 'way of silencing his prayers, and afterwards hold up the twitching bloody lump in. glee, Dr Forle escapes but becomes delirious. with hunger and fever, Corning upon the soldiers' leader he stabs him with ammal sav,agery; Mr Docx does not shield your eyes. Corruption is a theme that leaches into the story' from the' 'bottom, up: the ants" the imm ediate jungle co nflict, the invasive-

test When Easter is attacke d. byan anaco nd,a Marina takes a machete and hacks the snake's bod Y' aw,a~ saving the boy' s Ufe·~ later she .p erforms a. caesarean in a treetop hut with no drugs or equipment; a procedure that has haunted her since s ,eblinded a newborn in. a similar operation in. her student days" Despite these adventures,
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the book is slow-paced with loag passages about the forest and. Marina's own thoughts, But the pay-off comes from 'being immersed in Ms Patchett's enchanting prose and wondrous storytelling.
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quest and slavery " "in need of disguise, +'1 pulled on the, robes of religion an,d then the C'U·- it an d.]11/;;;; 0'......'· .f'-' th m a.I..k··.,o,tl .. 'UJD,' ~'~lli tie :.·:'. ~,' _.d ,O--.-.C:-IOioO, tua ~V!(.;;.!'L . ally it came to conservationism," Mr DOCK
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is shattered when a turf war erupts b,e= tween tribal drug smugglers and military fo,n:es sent 1by thle: go'vernm.en t to secure th.e oil-rilch area lor in'vestm,ent U':nwiUi'n,g ttl ble fOICf'd o'ut fro:m. the station that is mhe h,e.art of the'mr work, ~h,e:res!earch te'Blm gems caught U,P' in th,e es,eala.ttng vjollie':n,ce" ,1\Ar Do·ex's 'p:rose :is pu'nic~u:red 'with. epi= sod,es, of gruesome tortUfie,. Wh:en thle team i.$ kidn.2llp,ped thle soillidiers cut out th,e ton=
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doesn't endorse Wes,tem intrusion, 'but hie doesn't apologise for 'it: either, In Ann Patchett's ["''state of Wo.nder" nature is th,e thn~:at~ hum,an.s.. ,D:r Marina ,not
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gate th,e prngre·ss of a fermU.ity study that her 0,'10·1 , . n' '. ·.w.~"ulll ;:]', mQ·n· "0', r- ft-' 10' 'm- !o,dl ~."..,~,III ec-:h·........•. ',. 'D'r' A:.'..... n-··l:·,·C· ·k·.. Swenson, is cond'llcmm.ng in SN='cr,et.. DII Sw,enson lives 'with the, La:kashi tlibe,~,atjo,yfuill p,e·o:plle:whose worn.en ica:n reprod'u,oe wellli into old ,ag,e thanks to ,a ma,gi!cam substan,cie:
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ten in punchy action-packed paragraphs, whereas "State of 'Wonder" is. a p erso nal journey crammed 'with sumptuous description. 'lS, Naipaul's recent comments about female, authors-that they can never 'be his equal because of their "sentimental:ity; and narrow view of the world'<-are de= bunked here, Ms Patchett has a feminine touch, and that 'is on,e of the' strengths of :her writing;, lBoth bO(lks carry the same m,e ssa.ge: d espi t.e the da.ngers ,of mh,e jun,g]le; it wiH. fOore'ver tem'pt those wUh ,at thIrst: '~or

adv,enture a.nd ·(n,ow~,e,dge·,~ fnte'rvenbut tion oftifn cauSles more harm, th,an good'~ for Ama'zonia ,eul d the, plli'ucky 'pionee':rs~ ]l'erhal)S ~.tis 'b est: left 'un,toulche d~•
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7'0 Books and arts The city of Rom'!

Noisy and eternal
[Ramie::.A 'C:ultura,., Vi.suaL and Personal His.tory~ B~l Robert. Hug h'es.. Knapp 534:

squares on which his successors bestowed, the Baroque churches and fountains that have been the cttv's pride ever sinee, 'J!l. Ro m 1I[f-: . . -_-. ,his .. - y m.L) m -on .U. - ental then IS torv ie' -. __ , - um -_ uJli" SO is the task of tel ~'ng A story that lasts. it almost 3,:00"0 years, and is pivotal to so
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come the story of the making of the Roman empire, More jarringly the chapters supposedly devoted toO, the city's zoth-century history dwell at length on individuals Rome or, like the Futurists, actively loathed it The entire section could be retitled '~A Brief History' of Modern hallan Art", B,y then, you feel the author has been exhausted by the sheer riehness of his rna'i[m' also makes you feel big" becaus e the

and movements who had little to do with

m uch of 'Western civilis ation require s a chronicler of well-nigh unattainable erudition, who can write with. the skill needed

.ptlge·s;' $35.. IWeid,eJ1feld & Nicholso n; £25

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.- writes Robert Hughes, "has ever been more steeped in. ferocity from, its beginnings than Rome''. 'This dauntingl y aggressive city-state m,ad:€ itself the capital of Burope's bigge s~ empire, ,andlthen became the seat of western Christendom. Unsurprfsinglj; it: has acted as a magnet for men (and the OC'Cat= sional woman) 'Of.' imimidating ambition, untroubled 'by the 'use of violence for the attammen t of their ends. One of the city's semi-legendary rulers was 'Iarquin the Arrogant who is credited with inspiring the ~"taU poppy' approach to governance: he reputedly believed the best way' to start administering a 'van= quished city was, to removethe heads of its leading citizens, Among Rome 's later emperors Wl~,S Vale:n.s~,whose purge of pagans was described 'by one' fourth-century chronicler as "monstrou s savagery" ~As. Mr Hughes writes, "men were matmcd, hideously torn with hooks, and dragged off to the scaffold and the chopping-block .." t

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much of this wide-ranging volume hiesueIceeds magnificently 'H!€ is, a.t his most instructive and entertaming in the period that roughly coincides with the construetion 001' Saint Peter's basilica, which "took 120 years and lasted for the lifetime of 20, popes". 'This was the ageof Bramante, Mm.chelangelo, Julius ]1 tbe "ternfying Pope", and that eccentric Baroque master, Guido Reni, who was so scared .of women that only his mother was allowed, to touch his. laundry This was also the period that encompassed the Roman sojourn of Caravaggio whose violence and, genius were so much of a, piece with the city's history
"Saturnine, coarse and queer", writes Mr Hughes, that "he thrashed, about IDn the etiquette of early Seicenro Rome 111te· a

to prevent readers from succumbing to a literary version of Stendhal syndrome, Mr Hughes, the Australian-born art critic of Time magazine, comes as near as anyone to fulfilling that job description and for

terial, Rome, he writes, "makes you feel ,__ ,_- .....HI an ' '.~~:-- eantt I:!I"B, smau, and ~~s mean I~.O~ utt tlu nhe ad .. s ien -e a ds: -_

nobler parts of it were raised by' members of your own, species, It shows you what .. .. omg, you cannot imagine doi 'W h" ",.;t.. is 'DD'eo fucn .. the heginnings of wisdom,'
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lIhe IFi'llte'r Bub.bl,e: What the Internet. ts Hiding IF-ro,m'You .. By Eli' Partser. Penquin Press: 294 ptl{l'es.; $'25~95'~Vildn'g;' £J2,,99

Mo'I'@'than a. mi lennlum later, the, city was in thrall to "quarrelsome, tough, crazy" Pope Sixtus \; as a. later poet called him, A 16.th=,oe:ntury proponent of zeta. tolerance, Sixtus had those who failed to keep the Sab,b,ath con.demn.ed, tOot'h.e ,gane·ys~Si.x= tus~s vi 0~.enm~~fp,ro,duttmve'i' fiv,e-y,ear p,a.p,a.'-' c'y !ex,em:plUiedl .(1 recurrenm th,e:m.e :in :R,ome;'~s:history: th,e en.twinm~ng of b'lu.taJ,il ,Y 'wit'h, lauv~ cI,eati'vit.y~ It: wa s he 'who b'uilt sh man'y of the straight: roads ,il'nd b,road,

shark in a net, ~.~ Prose of that quality is of itse f enough to commend this 'work",But there is 'no denying the book is uneven" There are dis= concerting inaccuraci esr Mr Hughes seems to think polenta is characteristtcally RoO'= man when in fact it is quintessentially northern, And at times h,e faHs tOo eXlert on. his work the irOD, discipillin.e tha.t ,charact-el= ru.5,eshe only compa;rable work mn, Englmsh~ t 'ChIistoph.er Hw.bbert;s ""Ro,mie: 'Th,e B:io'grnp hy .of ,at City~',. ,pu'bU.shie,d in ·1'98s:", Mr H'ugh,es;s ,81lcc~'u'nt of the, Re'publi,c, fDr !exam'pIe, ,drifts away from. the cit.y i.ts,elfto be=

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'Why"?' Call a _ friend in.another city or a foreign. country!, and ask them to Google something at the same time las you, 'The results will be different, because Google takes your location, your past searches and many other factors into, account when. you type, in a. query In other words" it personalises the results ..As Larry Page, the chief executive .of Googl e: on c:e:p'ut it" ,,~t'h.eilltnna te search u

ll PARlSER, is worried,

,en:gin,e wouill,d un,de'rstan,d ,exactly' w'h,at you meant and ,giv'e'badk exa,ctly"what y'ou
wan.t.~' Eric Schmidt" 'e:xecutive ,eh.airman

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.of IGoogle;muses that someday it mig;ht:be p·oss:ible for .pe!op,~.e·t.o ask Goo!gle w'hic'h ,coill1e'ge they sho,u~.d appmy for, or wh~ch book to read next This is oniy ,on,e example .of inte:rnet p,erso,nalis"ati.on", Mr Patris,e~" an internet .at!ctivID.st blest Imow'n as, a llie,ading U.g'h~,at Mov'e'On~o rg', a p:rogress:i vie onminie c.a.m= p,aign gro'u,p', sees th.is as a ,dan.gerous develli.op,ment., Netfli)[~ .Am,atzon an.d ,Pan= do.ra can predict with astonishing a'orura= ,cy whethier yo'u win enj,oy .a. pa.rt~lcu~,ar film", b(')ol~o:r ,aJbum.~and ma[~e appIopri,att,€ -reco:mme'n,dations", Fa:cebo.alc: shows you u'pd.am·,€s from th!e friends. y·OU. inm,eract w~th. th,f most~ filtermg O'ut people' with wh.om. Y"')U :have, less in !comm.on" '~~My se:nse .of 'u'nease crystaiUs"e,d w'h,en I n:otl!ced that my conse',rvRtiv,e frilien.ds ha,d disapp'eared, fro',m :my Fa:ceboOoI{ p,ag'e',"" Mr Paris er. writes. T'he- J!es:ul t is a "'fi]ter bubble"\ which he defin,es as "',ell 'unm,que universe of tnformation io:r leach of us",~ m,eanin.g th,tlt we ,aTe ~ess, ~ikely'to e'Dcounter information. o'nUn:e that ,eh,all!e'nges our ,existing vie'ws or sparks s'e:r'f:ndip,itou:s ....

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• connections, "A world constructed from the familiar is a, world in, which there's nothing to learn," Mr Panser declares, He calls this "invisible autopropaganda, mdoctrinating us' with our own ideas".

papers, He advocates systems to promote: more serendipity' (by which he seems to
mean randomnessi-Amazon could rec_ ',.' ommen d.bookr OUI~Sleyourusua 1-·,"·1 'genres, - OOKS .' -1" .id ",:.-:-". for example.justin case yo:u I 'ike them, Another suggestion is, that filtering algorithms could be complemented b,y human editors who show you worthy things you, ought to se e, as well as things the algorithms calcumate Y(lU win want to see, 'Ihat will simply
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nalisation and filtering When so much in= form ation is available, it makes sense for websites you visit to, filter i'I-, using information about 'you; your interests and your friends. Essentially 'you trad .. personal ine formation in return for more 'useful re sul ts. But this neuters the Internet's potentia to break down social barriers between peeple or groups who might otherwise not connect with each other, '~We'r,egetting a ~otof' bonding but very little bridging," Mr ., ~ 'W"" P anser wornes.worse, as theimternet t e:= ne t come s an increasingly important source of mformation IUt is now second only to tele1_
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open Internet firms, U,k.e news providers, to "I" . accusa ··· ..tior "".'. ras.: ·s"~ .' aest .0. a "..... 'n... ions o fbias ··.I~rangles "f" "'11 M" 'r Cdr .. ". .. is or - ub iser- ca l'~ ·f· - an.".". c ·ti"-ve 'promo.tio: 0..f pu a .. ~ " . - - ron i lie issues and cultivation-of citizenship" by 'big inte-rnet firms, Whethe'f or not you '.JIiOr"·"'e- 'e" ,w,· ith i\f!LL Parise - ~~'''''' re"" scriptio 'n" hO~'W"= 'uever, there is n.. doubt that his book high= o lights an. important and easily overlooked aspect of the internet's evolution that affects everyone who usesit. •
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unpleasant or complex, such as homelessness or foreign policy Mr Pariser is

concerned, in short, that beeaus e of 'personalis ation ~the in. ternet is failing to live up m0 ruts "transforrna tive promise ~~ ~
'The question of whether the internet is inherently pro-democratic has become a ot PI" ate ~I- pe ~'r~l- - . ~', l!t,~' ~:', h 11._:' f0 .,: C 1.d:~JIj.y;, pa rti cul a "~Y" I'·n th i,;;; Iiieht of"' the Arab spring, which has provided ammunition for those on. 'both sides of the, argument, In "The Net Delusion", which l" ,;olm· o· u1· n" JI U-~I1:JJ" 'EL::-"g_ .o:n··~'::' M' ..' ,n'r'o', ~'O'!~-:: atLoa .... u v_~ ...y ".. u," .... z.v tacked what he called the "cyber-Utopian" view of the merits .0,1' the int ern. et as ·at force for liberation and empowerment, pointing out tha tit: canjust as easily be used as a tool of repre ssion, Mr Pariser' s thesis is noteworthy 'because in 'contrast with Mr Moro-o-'-'~,IE' eefu] ico iociasrn hee 1iS critiuc i ·J.·I=, quing zovs g ee "I. ~conoclasm ,•. := the internet from an openly progressive
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cution? Did they killthe cop who. carne to arrest them, orwas he in on it? Was VeM=

Mitchell Haven (Tygh Runyan), a director,

(Shannyn Sossamon, pictured, above), 'who is first shown languidly drying her startin,g=p,o,int 'nails, afte:r' 'which a s,eries of e':nigmatic ,MJ P'arms,er.'s'boo,:k pr1Q"V'.id,es survey' of a, eVl~nts b"eginjns.t a.s the, credits unfo~d~ ~he i'nte,rnet":s evolu~io:n tow,a.ms p,erso:nalSomewhere:in the Smoky· .Mo,u'ntains of North Carolina a cop einters an iso~,at= iis.atiofl" examin,e-s h,ow p r,e:se'nting :i:nfor= matmon ,a~.te:rsthle way in 'which it is pe:r~' ed ,hollse~.After a" wait, a gun goes off ,ceiv,ed, and ,co:ncludes ·with pI~sc:rUlpt~.ons inside ..'Velm.a and a man carrying a s,atch'~' for b urstin,g i'h,e filter b'ubble mhat su:rellea ve' th.etr :h.omes; g.et :in their cars an d ro·un,ds each 'User. Some of th.e author;s drive off into. the ,ni.,gh.t~lollowilng some titmetalbl e ·we ,are'n~tp.rivy' to;; As the sun s.ugg!es.tions m,ake s'ense': ~her,e m,su'n.(~rue·sstart s 1.0. peep ov'er the, mountains,!, th.e~iona.bly a Ca.Sl~for mntiemelmms to. give us,man takes off:in a. Cessn,a and Ve~ma ,ers :mor'e co:ntrol ov'er the, p!,ersonal inform,at~on, bleing held. about t"hem~You, ,can n ·t"r~ln· ...!lo a. h· '. .= .. P'\\1'r"IT's" 'h· Arl·" "c'a··r' by·~~'.' ,·q'w'·."IIl~k·.o, -w~···~·t,·c··I~nlg: impassively until the e,arly morning.also turn off' p"e:rso:naUs,ation in m.31fiy· ,ca.ses" An,d irf 'you, arie ;s:tUlwor.rie d ab out '61= scene is suddenly' disrupted. by th,e C,essna pI'u'nging' into, the 'walef" ter bu'b bIes.~·you 'c.an fav"Our sites that ate T'his is not the last time som.ethi.n,g mranspar1ent about the ways in w:hilch. th.ey filter ,and p,resent inform.ati.on, I(tho;u,gh that u'n.expected b,reaks th.e trang'uH surface of rules out Fa1ce.'bo,o:k a.nd G'oo.gle; Mr Parthiis film; w hi c:h care s as :m,'uch abo u t th e 'bearuty of the lake an,d the a,ctre ss's. faoe fuser's m,ain vUl.ain.s, b()th of which, rega.rld as it do,es ,about'what is in th.e S,att'lch,et D:id mh eir nltering ,alg-orithms. ,as tta1de· s ecretsl" 'Velma ,an,d her ,accom,.plice. a crooke,d So,m1e of Mr Pa'ris,er;'s othe'f td,eas, how·'poUtJ.cia.n n,ame,d Rafe' las chen (Cliff De le'v'e'.r~re-lliess eonvin{:ing~ He p.roposes that a Young,), fa.ke their de,a.ths to e's.(;a,pe' prose-' big intetnet c.omp,ainile-s app1o:int in,de:p,end'ent, omb,udsm!en~, H.ke thos!e at ,news~
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usual order" Bille,d in the opening credits as U.A M.i~ch,eU,H,a.v,en FH.m.';" "":Road To ' Now'her.e ,,~ ;s,h'utt'le-s b etw,e'e:n that iU-fa.ted pro,ductilon and flashb,8lcks from th,e fi]m-within-th.e-,fi.Im that shed Hight on. Velmat"$ disappea.ran.'ce~ C~onseq.uentIy we see· laschen and h~.si,ov,er;a ,eu'ban ga.ngster (Fabio, IestO who is the ·rea] 'Velm.a's father~ plotti:ng ov·er cappuccinos in, Ve-ron31 ].ong 'before it a/awns on 'us that. they are charact.ers in Mr Hav,e:n.ts film 6 JL . t . o .':J :-: I,Ct,_,'t;; too Mr' 'Ho'lllman's fi'lm- *'h·16 m'!"r'ror . l"'m· '~go of t"hat othe:r uRoad to Nowhe-re';'J is a c]e'vet br,a'inte,81s,er~ b'ut the greate·s,t p]ea sures 'it affords are ilts 'mome'nt=to=mOr= me.nt marvels.of atmosphere and perfor= m.an,ce~Lon.,g after its surfa,c:e m:yste:ries are dissi p.at1ed,; film -lovers like Mitchell H,a.veo, 'who w.aos his lovely actress. by showing her his fav,ourite fiJrns; win want to have ~'Road, o. No,where" to play T w'hen they~re in th,e mood,just ,as if it we,re, a favourite song~
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, . industry with .a 'wors,e reputation than, business publishing" Hundreds if not thousands of business books come out every year, all with glowing press releases and effervescent puffs, Literary editors tend to consign them strai ght to the 'bin", This ~ understandable ..An, astonishing s number are worthless. Celebrity C:E()S 'blow their trumpets, consultants market miracle cures, self-help gurus promise that you, can grow rich by working four :hOUIS a week, Wait at few months: the C:E,O'S have 'been caught with their hands in the till, the miracl e cure s are poisons; the self-h elp gurus bankrupt. Wh,a.m remains is at tangle of jargon-ridden prose, Understandable but wrong, It is silly to dismiss a whole, genre' just because so many business books are bad, There are some excellent titles run among the dross: 'C'EQ biographi'fs that capture som,ething essentiaill ab"out business~ 'useful p,re's.crip= tilons for resm,oIilng 'co:m,panies to h,ealth~, even, seruf~h,elp,books tha.t help, make se,ns'e of th,e contra.d:ictory' p'ressur.es of mode:rn corporat.e life", The a!v,erage employe,d jp"ers.o,n in th,e West spe'nds mor,e w,81l.tlng fim,e ~ hi0 'Ii:",Q I'!t ... 'h~,eo 'n·· l:!!n· ~lh· 0.· ffi-i -I !c,c h~ln··· '. sense to. 1k. sn ,~w;s,miSSive o.f writers w''h0 Ule~ d"" focus o,n.s'uch an, important: a.ctivity" T'h,t;: b,est boo~{s provid,e an mnsight ru~nto
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the developed to the' developing countries? Why do some companies succeed and others fail'? 'Wh'y are 'we swapping the ..'rhite CO~,ar ~ .. ' , k piacer W,' .1te ,. 'mill··· . ,HJr th .- ' _.,.:illar WOI~ , '~ ? ae.. ,n,NOCO~,ar Why' do 'managers say the astonishing things that they say'?' The answers to. these ..q- UI e.stions lie in th e b 'UI' siness b.. lK,. that ooks . , ~.I. many' l:i terary e ditors so' casually toss out, Some business writers pass Karl Marx's test IQf changing the world as well as inter. eti _ '"*r' reter urruczer .. t····· pretmg 1~,., p'... .. D:· .~' , S ,. ··l6·· C assic, 194" ·1, ... . ..: "Concept of the Corporation", made people think of companies as communities rather than just productive units. ""Ih,e Mtl,chm'ne' That Changed the Wor~d,';U99'0) by Iames Womack et al popularised 'Ioyota's manufacturing system with its. '. em p h asis onj ust-in -tim e parts. ancd , proactive workers. Michael Ha:mme:r an.d James. 'Champ'y's uRee-:nginee-:ri.ng the 'C ,rp"o:ra Hon,'" U9'931 e,:nicouraged companies t:o, s,ack lliarge n,'umbers of wOllo:~,rs eVlen, as th,eir ]I) ro fit s so atre',d~ This 'we-ek, The Ec,onotmist lli,a.un,ches ,a, quarter~,y review' which wffillhigbH,ghm' a semectmon .of new b,us.iness bool«:EL To. inmro.. due· ~h·-1' ",·S 'C;~'a·: ~ 'W'::-'~~, ~X(;ill, ~n, ,('!1r.:-, c·'l~,eli~.,.·t·ur- ~ ~ ,L)'.l:x. .. sics, :publish,ed, over. th,e p,atst half=century . - - t'h ·' . . - t·_ .. ..d'·· _ or- ,S-Oa.I,- - - t ][,I·mus- IT·.at·e th e WID,. e van.e t' y a.f' books that ,march und,er th,e ban.ner 'Of
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mass production ..But it' was his great rival 'I·· ....-. ~IM" to r-'·, ') A' ...d oan who aIt ...enerauv otors,.~G;M'). ilfr eu·Slo ..-. W io real.11 1.J' in" ven red- m· ".' em nrofessionl' ull m ian'v rod ~ ~ '~" ,'. Yl'~ ... ~..... '~I~I. U ~ agement, Sloan organised his company into divisions, that specialised in cars "for every purse: and purpose" and, he fashioned, a. managerial class that turned 'G,M,
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They also show how the best b 008 . h··· illp. b ot 1,0·'t . S, .ape th e. b .. .. . k ae rth . h .. , nusmess world and to make sense of itt. Henry Ford is rightly credited with in.. , '!to, . bl'! I..··· . .. ·~'t··h·· t " vennng , th assem ..•~.y nne-am ·d wm ], rne business,
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giant corporations that dominated American capitalism during its heyday Organisation men were conformists to their fingertips. They' eschewed creattvity ]fl pursuit of pleasing their bosses, hntlng the numbers and creating what Sloan called "obiective organ ~ sations" as distinct from ......J .. those that "get lost In the subjectivity of' erson allties" Later ,Ut _. orrs such ,9., Richauth as P·""dl ave .rle: -..". ". ", .at rd , f OIl. a." ha , t· "" d t 0 exammn -e. th .e- d.". e mise of ""o:rganis at~,on,man'" an,d, t'h,e rise of , the ,cre:ao'\1'e cia ss~, but n o'b0 dy' matches Whyte~'s at'bibty to :mix detailed, an,ec,dom:.e.s W;llt·h·lr',',Q.lIIO''lJi,d'·1 ~;\;r, - '1 ",)[ 'v, __ uGnara'I'l·sa,ji.·j'·nniC" D'Iu,cker was th,e doyen, of,man.ag,e:m.ent gurus-a man w'bo kept 'u,p ,a stream of inS'ig'hmful c.o;mmentary ,on 'bustness. fto:m the '" 1-~ t"'~ .·.lS ... ,t-h·1 "'.. 200':5., Ie .··m;ng •.IS 19,40'S unl~.lw.'h"· _.,d..·' e',a., mn ._ ... .. 'p:! :k··"-1.· h"';" - - - - k- ~ - _.- . th- '. - - - - "" b_est 'b,.- .00· ~.Sno t. e.asy~.. Ie lne-I egan,t'l- y t' ]ltl·- e:d
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competiti ve and still highly' profitable) ..Mr lutz said hie would only return as head of global product development, Hie 'wanted the authority to shift OM'S. cu ture away from penny-pinching mediocrity to ODie that put design before everything, Above all, he thought, the super-analytical appreach favoured. b,y !GM.~Ssenior manageCar Guy,s vs B,ea.mCOllnters:: The Battle for ment was fatally flawed, The best cars had tlhe SOIl~ of Ame'ri·ca,·n Bus,iness. IBy Bob to stir the emotions of potential buyers Lutz, Porif(JfiO/~24..1 pages; $.26:~,95 and for that you needed the creativity of A'FTER two !of America's ,uB~.gThree" car ri ght-brain types I(Ucarguys' like him) rathman w· ra"5 the first business bl .. ockbus ter .rt_comp,anies plunged into bankruptcy, er than the clever, but left-brain "bean selling millions of copies and demonstratthe idea of ,81 management 'book from an counters" that G'M empl oyed in droves .. ing tha t con sultants could talk to a. general M" - -,,- .In this energetic account (thier,€ is. no as we. 1 as ,'.a b 1-' .," - - ".'. au1- direnca, n any ,0·f'.' executive who worked for them all seems nusmess ", implausible ..But Bob Lutz ~sa legend, mention of a ghost writer), Mr lutz takes the companies they profiled performed The cigar-chompmg former marine be= some well-aimed shots. at those who conba·dmy· in subsequent years and the book gan, his career with General Motors (GM) spired t·o cripple the great American auto has been heavily criticised since it carne industry. He has special contempt for polinearly 50 years ago and worked, for both out i:n.198.2 ...But it: was a powerful attack on tieians who helpe d s tift e engmeering inno:BMW' and Ford, But it 'was a stint at Chrysthe rationalist school of management which saw wo-rkers as mere numbers, and iller from 19·86 to 1998 that confirmed his vation by' preferring undemanding, 'but ~itprov .:1' d.,e' a 1("'0'mpellmg , ,I 'p,·o· -~ of hohero status ..During that time he delivered at market-distorting, v _ '. d ... ,_,w,.!!-' __ '. rtr ~t ~ fuel-effi ct ency stan" ,com:panles 'wor k.. :d.ards to taxing petrol a.t the same kind of succession of flashv f2Jl:S t-selling cars and rates that apply in just about every other trucks that concealed the- company's Clayton Christensen's The Innovaadvanced industrial economy But his tor's Dilemma b~9'97) introduced o'n,e .of underlying weaknesses just long enough to convince D! aimler (disastrousle) to. pay the most mfluential mo .. dern business main :p'urp'05 € ms to ten the story of the batld . tles he fo'ug'ht to convince the, leviathan :$.36 billion for it, lVUlutz could have rested 1; eas+disruptive tnnovatton+an d proverdl :. that high academic theory need not be' a on his laurels, However, in 2·0·01,. at: the age firm to start making' cars that people actudisadvantage in a. book aime d at t'h.e gen- of nearly 70~ while running Exide, a, trouany wanted to own and would pay good eral reader ..Mr Christensen showed that bled battery-maker, he answered the call money to, buy ..Although, fond of blowing his own trumpet, he :is. n at entirely unselfto return to his alma mater, G M~ great companies can fail despite doing Rick 'Wagoner; a ·GM hfer, had just taken critical, admitting that he would not have everything right:: even as they listen to their roadie the 'big bet on China that was. by far on the top job, 'Wrestling wah the structurcustomers and invest heavily in their most 'G M;S smartest move in the 19'9'OS." al problems that finally propelled the producti ve technologies, their markets can Sad y;, the reviva of 'GM;S car-making be destroyed by radical D!e-'W technologies, world's biggest car company into Chapter ICJ(., Prahalad's The Fortune at th e Bo,t.. n in 20.0;9',,. he at first wanted, Mr: utz to jo ~ n skills. that Mr lutz inspired was too patchy a.nd not s:uffici!ently establis.h,edl in th,e tom of the Pyramid (-200'4) unleashed a him as a. consuJ.tal'nt,. to s-prrunkle s.tard.us.t businless revolli'uti.on tha.t: has d:one: far m·ore over 'G,M'S .arnjn:gly d.ull I,ang·e of p·ass·en.= minds of eon:s;u'me-rs (m,arny o·{'w'hom had goo .. th,afl an'y' numb"er of HLive' Aid"') c·o:n= g'er cars (by ·contr,ast: :its Ug'hill: trucks 'w'erie ,gi-v'en 'u'p b·uying A:mieric:an} to s,av'le it A d ,g;round,~,'brea:king ·d'ea,lli with mhe unions also ice.rts" U s~n_ga, w'e aJth of 'vivid examples., from In.dUlan eye ,c~inj.cs to M!e:xican oeme:nt c.arnle Just too lat,e~ 'Wh!en the double= !comp.anies;. Pr.a·hal,a-d mad·e three, po'we-rfu~. 'wham-my' of ·ahuge spn<.e' in oH ]p'[]lces and I' I . i·.·. ", :1' , 'h I' 'h the fin.aln.citd crru.sIDs struck in 2008; G.M; pOlnts~ ~ t "at1-",' oonsumers.' I - '- W=_O lve on. ~es.s .. ---hi ... :, ,- 0 ~.* .,.~', :1.-.. '!!"75 _-lIUJII.~ '~n .:, ~h·.tIt .d""11 ,~, d,;o;'_ c o'l~ r>~'v.o 1=,= '~'n· .,,~ Colt a liy ili'io.s cOnt 'b-,111J.:~'~ l 'W ·1J!.Ul. had 1.!,:)I~·: moro t,'h"'ll nI 1iP- _- b'~'~]1a n II. t-h y Uons of dollars-worth of diema'nd, that topr!eviO'lls four y·ears as. Mr Wagon·er strug,gled to str,eamHne the busmess~ 'w,as, too gether they' will a,c!count Jot 'm'uch .of the w'(~akto fin,d[ a. way throu,gh~ growth in global d.em,an·d :in.th,e :future~ ,and Tod,a~ after th·e gov'lern:mient baH=out that co:m'p,anie's that w.ant to rea.ch these an d with its·b.ala-n,ce=she'iet lli,argely' r.ins,ed of m,arlcets 'nee·d to start earlli.y and, rethili'nk d,ebt'~ G·M is both pIofitable ,andl makin,g' 1th,eir assumptions ab'lout d,esilgn ..and distribution, ..Prah,aladl~,w'ho d:i!ed ].ast year~,is one so:mle q.uite dec,ent v'ehfucles~One of those ru.s !of the, wrUe-r.s 'who ms most ,admi:red b,y' the Chevrolet 'Voillt, a:n fu,nnovativ!e el e,ctric ea.r that was Mr Lutz~'.Sma.st gre-a. t jp,roj e,et 'b edeveloping-'w'Orld entrepre:neurs,~. from Muh,ammad 'yunus,,. who flJU'n,de,d forie he 'ret~red,~'Th·e Volt 'wa.s not th·e;res,ult 'Gram.een, 'Bank in B,a.ngla.d.esh,,. to Ja.mes of ~·hea.u~hor':5:p,assion for .green Icau.s·es.; h·e ·B:'.,;;aln·1 on·ce' famousmy ·descr~be,d man.-m,a.de' gillOI" " W(iI! =JJ., ·c---' y,r;},J. ll~y M·,-~---;'~I'ng~i 'E',o, ~f''K'Qn,-::---:-.,;;al;~' E~,nI'U'!~~-:- ~k, 'hal wa-rmin.:g' ,as '~a croelt of shit"·,..Rathe':l' itt 'Com.parries and ,c:ons:ultancile·s wil.1 b'uy' was his determination to put one ove;r on thous.a.nds of bo·olks.to tlatth~:rth.e-ir CE'Q1S or m,arlet th·eir ma,test: '~'breakt-}lfough'" ide'Bls" Toyota~ What irlk:ed Mr lutz was th.e h:amo c:on£erted on e'v-ery' 'toyota b·y the, ,81dl'ula= The temptati.on for pubUs;he,rs to ·churn. O'ut h '. d-I 'B ~ , ' ;, tru.onfor itts Pr.ius :hybrid at a. time 'w·h,en. the ru 'b-.'b-J.S h- sl, auI 'I'd''.i bI . e reS.lste_~ ,usmne.s.s IS '_ going t:h:rough a p a:rticular1-y' fascin atiln,g Japan.'ese mak.e:r was trying to steal what ph.ase; ,as n.ew te·ch~n.olo,gies disIU,P't' lliongwas ille-ft o.f' Detroifs lliunch 'w:it"h ever :m.ore ,establis.:hed, b'usin,ess :modellis~. new e'comons:tro'us picltup trucks. and s.'U·vs~ Per:hatps m:he r·eal Ie ss-on. of Mr Lutz's. care'e'!' m.s no:mic gia.'nms sh'if~'mh.e' ala'n,ce ·o.f e'c-.onomic b tha t 'it is. no·t j usm' a. d:ash ..of ·creamivimy mh,Blt btg' pow·er and. n·~w gu'rus, m,a.ny .of th·em fl10m org.anisations n,eed,~ bu,t .an imp,ia.c:aible lemlerging m,atrl(ets.~ reinter,pr'ft the land,= s.caplf'~ 'Th·e n.ee,d, to s·e;-par.ate lh.e w'h:eat d,esffire l·o b .. at the ·competition by b'uiMdin.ge a blette·r'mO\l;Sletra.p,,, • from th.e·c'haffhas ,ne·ver been gre'ab!r~ •
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finance, The names sprinkled ,a.·b 'in out "Banker t:,oth e Wo rld" include Fidel Castro, -:--:-::': d ....., wnith W om 'M',,: .-, R' ..h' IQ,eS bet a 'b"" o','f-' C"-,,- ~ b . wh "r net '- nox i.uoan cigars on the, outcome of Nicaraguan debt talks, and Robert Mugalbe~whom he had to !""U- -I't off in m .w., '-flow at a con ference "'M'" r M:,·'U-I id '_ ", ~-' gable took this badly, asking the author on stage if he 'was related to Cecil Rhodes), But the appearances of such figures seem designed pnncipally toO' show Mr Rhodes in ,3, good light. In 20"0,6 he met Xi "np . 0' .. ..,.. .y ..... . ..y ..., ... ..... J'~ -. in 'O'~ then t., e-. 'p-. artv secretarv of Zhe,jiang province and, :n,Q'W China's leader- lnwaiting':. ~ ',M..',', r R: hi10'.....,..;;;;:) ~e' *',0',0 bu exr I-O,C· oun tlng d u].oW, Y , ,..;;;.. .: how he arranged the opening of a Citigroup branch in the province to point out
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blems, except in the flimsiest of afterwords, is frustrating, There is virtually nothing on Citigroup's near-death experi'e:nce ,d'urin,g th,e B;! ce'n t fin,arnciiaJ, crisi s~ "nl"n.-- 'iPtl,Q;l!jJl,dh'' -' 'e-' "'h- '0--:"0--:I'S·~.Qi,C" 't,o--:, It' --lL.\'·UL,il!i!'II;"... h-'- '.,"S-· llf"Ij,:'1II'C--~'''''!IIlla,iCii I~ reerinto a series oftrih:: ~.ea,dlers:h.ipllesso.ns" 'Chapt.er.s have Maoist=soundjng titID,es .like ("'Lea,d bo~,dlyan.d ,de'cisivelli'y~'~ nd ",j;E,xec,ute a 'il.; ·hl' •........• ,: ·' ~,us ~n a t·I·····-'1':,yas-' '--:'hli,· ',t.'.'nac~= 0·fl *h· ,em. IS 1.1]1 ... Ime f'-,,' =~,on tr,a.ted by thr-e,e of ,Mr Rh.o,des'~'s. a,chf.ev'e'men~'s~ThJs stru,C~UJr1e 'mea"ns that there, is, no. 'narraHve tlow: his first' ,example, from t"au ""0' '~~:,.w.;j ,-ddl:' _ Lgl'tiin-- A', 'ID"""-' r.:Iin-+ ~ililE" Ur-lillllg--: a-'y'~s~ 0' 'I-eCi~r--ut'>(.= t,uring~.his ne'xt is. A-rgentina in 19'93 and his t'hird ms Brazil in 19'83,,, 'Th,e for.mat aillso forces Mr R:h.od'es to
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bind all creditors to foltow the wf 1 of a

woman (Suzie Orman), one by an author in his late 70'S, (Stephen Coveyl and, one by a non- American native, David Brooks was born in Canada, but rectified that mistake soon afterwards by relocating to New:. v.o' k and th le'- n oil) _." : .' d a M-'-" aryla ~nd '~ '... ..l~ r ..-, Bethes J!.. _. where he now writes, conservative commentary for the New YOf'n 'Times,., If youhaven't had the forethought to ~ .1. be b orn l· A-" m '6 a th '6 , ,e:,.1 .least P' ,ck n : eric t, en at ~,tijJ~:. ~ ' 'y' ,'O~'U-i r- ;P'U' -jb"- .JII'Ii.r : W·: ith car ,Ii ect .' Tom .. 'R:'.3Iti1-''!ll ,.1~_, .u., , motivational writer with two 'books in the: world top ten, knows that readers like the evangelical touch mixed. into a 12-:ste'pprogramme, He, like others on this list, offers re aders advice on how' to identify their hidden strengths, become highly effective, learn how to talk. the talk, make, a. tonne of money-and above aJI avoi d becoming sad, dysfunctional an , d po"0' r NJ 0·· start . ~ w-:-r· .~.' g ~·t-iin' a. I ~." .. '<'lILa " ... , . ~
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Tenders

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The Republic and State ,of Geneva invites interested stakeholders to submit proposals for a Centre for qloba] cooperation= that w~111 provide an innovative andl internationally competitive venue for dialoque, policy reflection and coordination.
The centre wil~ develop an authorltative and creative approach to analysis of qlobal issues and brinq state-of-the-art expertise to its communications and orqanisation. lt will take fullll advarrtaqe of the interdisciplinary opportunities that Geneva's concentratlon o'f international orqanisations, diplomatic Il' -' Il'·· '.' ·.·..III'iiS::',:-',~:··.· 1'iiS· •. ··· .·'ci~ : " •..... '.' •. m-ission 'I,s- ci ". '~-'" II; institution 'j':'" s an-. Id b us-~nQ5-S-0S-' offer Tho proposal should~" con sid er t h·.£:I I .. " of includ in gacademic ' .._ merits .... an IJ'i nterneti on a II dub" in its activities,
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A site larqer than '9 0 0'00 sq. rn, in the heart of Geneva's international district may Ibe made available 'for the centre's use. The manaqemerrt of the centre could be handled over to the winner as,from 20'12,~
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Proposals should be submitted in French Olr Enqlish b,y,31 October 2,011~ F'o,rmore informatlon contact: ilnlfo~glelnleve~inteJnatiolnal~e@etat.~ge·~(lhl

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OIPIENI~NIGl1EINDER INOTICE, N {lOWA02,01 '1/8 IE, FR10IM] 0111011201 '11TO D11311/2D191 Date olf the noUce - D6/21' 12.011 'Om Th ursda,y ~ July 281hi 2'0'1'1 at 10:;:00 a, m" the epenl ng 'j'n pu b,lk~session of the seeled IIetters reia:~iingl 'to the altB'Jf",e,~m,e:nt~on 0 tender wilill tak'e IPlace iin '~he' 0 prem lees of the S ~ E:
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Designation The! manage ment of ,9Jninv'€stm ent hJlrii'd iin renewable €n€HfQli!5's Df ,8, size between MA D ~ bi lilion ane ,2 bUllions,

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Mo nsi eUlf lie D'j recteur Gener,al de Ia SIIE! Min ilst,e'f,e' de 1"Enargie et des Mines" Bal A, ,3~mieMage, A,gda,11R,aba,t~Mar,oc~
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AUlja~I'W'af,abal"!k. A~ba:t' S.OU Issi Bu!S~~€:S$; enter: IBAN M~ Cl07 S,1! 0001 !l1 '130ClOOO1 ,801 '94; G 0 swif1j': IBCMAMlAM:C
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U!ni;v,e rsiity o~ Kra.gujeva.c, Faculty of Mec~aJnical E:ngliineering Kraljevo, Se~biia~ intends to. aw,ardi a supply contract fo r P'ROCUREM ENr iOF E,tUJIIIP;MEINT f()R ,3:0 ,SC\ANINIIIN(.1 AINI), RAIPIID IP'Ror'OTyp~NGI i'n Kralljevo! Se'roia! with 'inanc:iall asslstance from ~he' R;egiio~,all SociG-lEco~orni:caJl PTOgrarnm s! of the E:uropean Unllon.

The tender doss! r is ,ava~ e lable from:: http,:f_w~ mflol~ kg~,ac~ rsliimp!uhl
'The deadlline 'for subm iss!lon o~ t:e~ders ils 12;00 (Noon). em A.uglust .31.stl 20 11. Poss~ble
additiornal i~f1'ormatiolnor clla~i'icaJti'onsfqJues;tilons s!halill be publlislhed on the web5it~ .stated

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Economist
TO AD'VER'TIS,E'WITHIN THEClASSI'flfD ,S,ECTI'O,I\I" CONTAC'T:'

The

London
Oliirve r S~ate r 'Tell,;(44-20) 7'57,£ji8408

Be~hHuber
Tel ~(2'12)' ;541~500 bfdhhubeli'@,ecanoli1niist~com

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Readers are' ,R'ecommended
to rrtSike appropriate ,eli1qluliirie~an rj taJk~ appropriate a.d\l'i'o~ be'1ore $ending IT! Oriley,
linCUrJrlingl,Sllny expense or ~n~,erilng 'into a bintjing ...~mmitm e_. __in.. Ir=.IIe.tl-n t: an ·~..Iiv-l>jiol'e;-m-nl'_ A ...0. .. _.. _... =rrt e.~"_ 0._. _0 ~!'~.0;;1~ e
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-lG~oball VIew Glloball Irensfers, and international account openIn'g are not available ~n 81111 countries. forei'gn currency exchange ratesrnev apply" 20Her(s) valid \ulhe.nyou begiln a new psrsonal Premier relationship" in the ~nilt'8dl States 1iundedl in new Imoney 'from IM,ay 1116_ 2rH'1 to July 22" 210111. With a m~n~mum Iqual'ifying balance o'¥$: 1IS,O.rOO[t qtl.allilfy.for the Mac.Book ,Ai'r. AJt.'ernatB Ig~ftt,(HlaiJlable!with a ml'i'ni'mumlQuallifv'ing belence of $: 1iQOI or mora Off,8r(s) not val'id for lnsurance Productsyou [100 which include ,Annuilt~es~ o-rfor 18xi3t~ng HSBG Premier clients re,g-allrdle~s,s; whcr~ other non-Premer ,Aecounts they have or how 1!hey allre listed on account titles: OnllinB~Savingls of A,ccount Is inelIglilblle: for gift promotion. New money 'i's defined as funds. or positions not. pn51v'i'ousIIV held by alny member oi the HSBC GrOlup Olver the past six consecutive IlJ CJln~h~. Q Ual~ For ~fyrD,g Cu stoma rs URg rad ~n~ to Plre·ml~er nerw' rno n.ev mU8'~be ~n ad dliltio n tlJi ex~s!,~ngl d 91Posit and 'i' nvestm ent bala nces as [rfi th.e ~c~se of b~si ness 0 III M aly 13,~ [j11 o 2 ( Existi n'g Belances )1,Premier relationship lin the U.S",must remain oplen;' new mlonev end EXlls'tlng Ballallnces must ramal n on dlepOs,II'ttfor ,8 rrurumum of SliM.months or 1tihe'value of g lift w~ be ded uete d fro m a ceo unt proc €l'eds ii t~ req uirem ent has nut be en met. II me "I0 Q~ality for an HSBC, Premier relationship, 'you.need to open a Premier Che~[:kingaccount and maintein $:"1OrOOO in combined U,S,,,personal deposits. i'nc.ludIng Online Savingls O A ecount, and nvest ment ba Ia nee s, Busl ne ss own ers may use t h el reo mm ercia I ha la rc 8'S tD QuaI~fy fo r ,a pe rs Dna I Preml~ r re~ati onsh ip~ but th EN)e ba Ia nc es ea n not be' use d e to meet the new money. requirements. A monthlv maintenance fee Di' $50,00 wi~llbe~ incurred ii' m~Il'irnuml balance requirements are not maintained, You have up tD 90 days ···"f~t--,· t I-II efcen .... U \ - .~~ ani ,,-- ,a anc.e or ,a re,ml8r L.' 18C.mgl acc(wn twhich IS .aCCllr,a!.bess of " ··'W·· 8e,r ······'--1 ·t' openmgllOern st- th e ·flUIII$-1IIjWiilO-lilIO- ~'-'II:-- ".. reQUllremen'b" iF~-A'- .nnua Percenta age- 'Y ·_··I...!IJA:,-,pVI'd-Ib,··-·I·-··· for s P··-·,-,_.'. r;'hl--Ik·-- ······--1 ac.co~m -'-'-"'_._"-. Imee Ib I ~ '. IIUIjJ~.· u· ua cmC8 -- ._-- --if' IIIII~· 118 . \N ICIII as 0 A,priI1,a~ 2011 ls 0.101% APY on balances of $5.00 or more. ,AP¥ ls veriable end subje~ct 'to chan~'8 attar open~ng" Charg'8s and fees may reduce e-arn'i'ngs",Ouallilfled Premier clants 'willi be not~fie~d v~a rna'iI wit:h~n 90 days Df account open~nlg; notificafion wi'll include instruefions for rede~mlin,g giff of choice. IEI'ig'i il ity recuirements m,ay applly for somis g'ift b
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A.pple®, the Appl€l logo and IM8IcBook Ai r are regl~s.ten3d 'trademarks of Applle line. All riqhts reserved. Apple Is not ,8 participant in or sponsor of this promotion United States persons Onc~udingl U",S.citizens and residents] are' subiect to U.S. taxation on their' worldwide income and rnav be subject to tax and other lfiiling obi ~g,atrons with resp ect to th e~i S", and n on-lf.S, a ccou nts In Gilu d i'ng~to r exa m pi e. Fo rm TD F 90-22" 1 ~. PI) rt of Fore i,gn Ba nk and H na ncia I Ace oints ,~ FBAIR l')I", U,S. IPerso ns sh 0 old co ns.ullt ~~. Re a ta x ad viser to r mo re info rrna tio n.
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DepDs~t.lProducts offered lin the U,S, by- HSBC Bank USA~ N.A""M s'mber FDIIC. ©21J1'1 HSBC B,ank USA,~INI,,,A.

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