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Food Supply Scenarios - Full

Food Supply Scenarios - Full

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Published by Kirsten Larsen

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Published by: Kirsten Larsen on Jul 15, 2011
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12/26/2012

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The key settings of the three scenarios – the variables that make them operate differently from the
background scenario and each other – are shown in Table 3-5.
The greenhouse emission targets in Table 3-5 represent the level of ambition suggested by the
qualitative scenarios and were used to guide initial estimates of what other settings should be.
The amount of food ‘required’ in the scenarios is set as the amount needed to meet nutritional and
energy requirements (as defined in 3.1) as well as a ‘surplus’ needed in the system to provide that
requirement. This surplus factor is included to allow for a proportion of waste and losses (some
redundancy) whilst still meeting the nutritional requirements of the population. The surplus factor is
varied as appropriate in each scenario setting (e.g. 3.3.5.6.1 Food Required).
The settings in each scenario determine allocation of natural resources (i.e. land and water) to food
production, as well as resource use efficiency, therefore determining how much food is produced. The
results then show a production ‘surplus’ or ‘deficit’ compared to requirements (for provision of a
nutritious diet). When not enough food is produced, the scenarios employ different strategies are to
address gaps and make up nutritional requirements:
• Adjustment: assumes sufficient food is produced externally and resources are available to buy it, so
the domestic food market can import more food; and
• Control and DIY: Land use patterns are adjusted, reallocating land within agriculture to different
food types to increase production.
The rationale, settings and results of each scenario analysis are outlined in the sections below (3.3.3,
3.3.4 and 3.3.5). The modelling has involved making changes within the ASFF at a national level (i.e.
settings are applied universally across Australia and not differentiated between states). Therefore, the
results can easily be extracted at both a national and Victorian level. The results included within the
main document are shown at a Victorian level, with national level also provided where appropriate.
With modelling and analysis of this type, it is possible to extract an almost infinite number of variables
and relationships.

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