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Financial Stability How to Restore a Failed System

Financial Stability How to Restore a Failed System

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Sections

  • Chapter 1: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 2: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 3: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 4: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 5: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 6: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 7: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 8: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 9: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 10: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 11: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 12: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 13: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 14: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 15: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 16:
  • Chapter 17: Executive Summary
  • Chapter 18: Executive Summary



kestor|ng I|nanc|a| 5tab|||ty:
now to kepa|r a Ia||ed 5ystem



An
Independent
View


from


New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business

Edited
by
Viral
V.
Acharya
and
Matthew
Richardson


In
18
short,
targeted
and
definitive
White
Papers
–
each
tracing
the
core
of
the
problem,


the
policy
alternatives,
and
a
specific
course
of
action
–
32
academics,
combining
a
solid

understanding
of
financial
economics
with
the
practice
of
modern
finance,
suggest
solutions,


in
the
public
interest,
to
the
central
issues
of
today's
financial
crisis.


This
overview
contains
the
Executive
Summaries
of
these
White
Papers,
to
be
published
in
their

entirety
by
John
Wiley
&
Sons
in
March2009.






Preface


As
2008
was
drawing
to
a
close,
we
were
reflecting
on
the
dramatic
and
often
unprecedented
events
of

the
 past
 year
 in
 financial
 markets
 and
 the
 broader
 economy.
 Nothing
 like
 this
 had
 occurred
 in
 our

lifetimes.
In
our
academic
 world,
few
 events
had
as
much
potential
for
providing
us
and
our
colleagues

with
 a
 rich
 source
 of
 raw
 material
 for
 good
 research
 and
 teaching
 for
 a
 long
 time
 to
 come.
 
 This
 is
 the

ultimate
 teachable
 moment
 and
 it
 is
 essential
 to
 teach
 it.
 We
 were
 in
 the
 middle
 of
 a
 financial
 and

economic
 hurricane
 that
 was
 certain
 to
 leave
 behind
 massive
 financial
 and
 economic
 damage.
 It
 will

eventually
blow
over,
as
all
hurricanes
do,
but
it
is
not
too
early
to
begin
to
think
about
what
changes
to

the
system
can
mitigate
the
damage
and
hopefully
make
future
financial
storms
less
likely.

With
 one
 of
 the
 largest
 and
 best
 faculties
 in
 the
 world
 focused
 on
 finance,
 economics,
 and
 related

disciplines
 –
 academics
 deeply
 rooted
 in
 their
 respective
 disciplines
 and
 also
 heavily
 exposed
 to
 the

practice
 of
 modern
 financial
 institutions
 ‐
 we
 thought
 that
 the
 financial
 crisis
 provided
 a
 unique

opportunity
to
harness
our
collective
expertise
and
make
a
serious
contribution
to
the
repair
efforts
that

are
 getting
 underway.
 We
 convened
 a
 small
 group
 of
 interested
 faculty,
 the
 idea
 caught
 on,
 and
 we

decided
to
execute
this
project.
All
faculty
members
in
the
relevant
disciplines
at
the
Stern
School
were

invited
 to
 participate
 if
 they
 had
 the
 time
 and
 the
 interest,
 and
 32
 colleagues
 did
 so
 (participants
 are

listed
at
the
end
of
this
volume).


Next,
 key
topics
related
 to
the
crisis
and
 its
resolution
were
identified,
and
individual
teams
of
authors

set
to
work.
As
a
common
format
we
used
the
“White
Paper.”
Each
starts
by
discussing
the
nature
of
the

problem,
 where
 things
 went
 wrong
 and
 where
 we
 are
 today,
 what
 options
 are
 available
 to
 repair
 the

immediate
 damage
 and
 prevent
 a
 recurrence
 at
 the
 least
 possible
 cost
 to
 financial
 efficiency
 and

growth,
 and
 a
 recommended
 course
 of
 action
 with
 respect
 to
 public
 policy
 or
 business
 conduct.
 Each

White
 Paper
 (many
 of
 which
 are
 substantially
 more
 definitive
 than
 we
 initially
 envisaged)
 is

accompanied
 by
 a
 short,
 easily
 accessible
 Executive
 Summary.
 Each
 White
 Paper
 was
 intensively

debated
both
formally
and
 informally
among
 the
group
over
six
 weeks
or
so,
although
no
attempt
was

made
to
enforce
uniformity
of
views.


This
 has
 been
 a
 unique
 opportunity
 to
 bring
 our
 cumulative
 expertise
 to
 bear
 on
 an
 overarching
 set
 of

issues
that
will
affect
the
national
and
global
financial
landscape
going
forward.
We
know
that
the
repair

process
in
the
months
and
years
to
come
will
be
highly
politicized,
and
that
special
interests
of
all
kinds

will
work
hard
to
affect
the
outcomes.
We
also
know
that
some
of
those
entrusted
with
the
repair
have

also
 been
 responsible
 for
 some
 of
 the
 damage.
 So
 we
 present
 here
 a
 set
 of
 views
 that
 are
 at
 once

informed,
carefully
considered
and
debated,
independent
and
focused
exclusively
on
the
public
interest.


Thomas
F.
Cooley,
Dean
 
 
 
 
 
 
 New
York

Ingo
Walter,
Vice
Dean
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 December
2008

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.


All
Rights
Reserved.

3






kestor|ng I|nanc|a| 5tab|||ty:
now to kepa|r a Ia||ed 5ystem
Ld|ted by V|ra| V. Acharya and Matthew k|chardson

5ummary
In e|ghteen short, targeted and def|n|t|ve Wh|te Þapers - each trac|ng the core of a prob|em fac|ng the
f|nanc|a| sector, eva|uat|ng the po||cy a|ternat|ves, and recommend|ng a spec|f|c course of act|on -
members of the 5tern facu|ty app|y sound pr|nc|p|es and prov|de a b|uepr|nt for reconf|gur|ng the
f|nanc|a| arch|tecture and regu|at|on after the cr|s|s.

5ect|on I: Causes of the I|nanc|a| Cr|s|s of 2007-2008
Chapter
1:
Mortgage
Origination
and
Securitization
in
the
Financial
Crisis
 
 
 9

Authors:
Dwight
Jaffee,
Anthony
Lynch,
Stijn
Van
Nieuwerburgh
and
Matthew
Richardson

While
securitization
drove
the
unprecedented
growth
in
subprime
loans,
and
these
loans

inadvertently
created
a
wave
of
refinancings
or
defaults
around
the
reset
date,
the
systemic

dimensions
of
the
crisis
arose
from
the
leveraged
concentration
of
risky
mortgage‐backed

securities
on
the
books
of
a
small
number
of
key
financial
institutions.


Chapter
2:
How
Banks
Played
the
Leverage
“Game”?
 
 
 
 
 
 11

Authors:
Viral
V.
Acharya
and
Philip
Schnabl

Through
off‐balance‐sheet
credit
risk
transfer
that
incorporated
recourse
back
to
their
balance‐
sheets,
banks
avoided
regulatory
capital
requirements,
took
on
excessive
leverage,
and
used
the

freed‐up
 capital
 to
 lend
 down
 the
 quality
 curve
 and
 bet
 on
 aggregate
 risks
 –
 with
 important

implications
going
forward
for
regulating
and
defining
the
boundaries
of
financial
firms.




©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

4

Chapter
3:
The
Rating
Agencies
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 13

Authors:
Matthew
Richardson
and
Lawrence
White

Although
the
major
rating
agencies
bear
much
responsibility
for
the
mortgage
securities
debacle

of
2007‐2009,
a
thorough
understanding
of
how
and
why
the
agencies
grew
to
be
so
important

is
necessary
before
policymakers
can
craft
sensible
regulatory
solutions.


5ect|on II: I|nanc|a| Inst|tut|ons
Chapter
4:
What
to
Do
About
the
Government
Sponsored
Enterprises?
 
 
 
 15

Authors:
 Dwight
 Jaffee,
 Stijn
 Van
 Nieuwerburgh,
 Matthew
 Richardson,
 Lawrence
 White
 and
 Robert

Wright

Because
 private
 profit
 taking
 with
 socialized
 risk
 is
 untenable,
 the
 GSE’s
 investment
 function

should
be
shuttered
and
its
securitization
and
guarantor
role
folded
into
a
government
agency.



Chapter
5:
Enhanced
Regulation
of
Large
Complex
Financial
Institutions
 
 
 
 17

Authors:
Anthony
Saunders,
Roy
Smith
and
Ingo
Walter

Traces
 the
 growth
 and
 complexity
 of
 the
 new
 generation
 of
 Goliaths
 in
 US
 and
 global
 financial

markets
 ‐
 all
 of
 which
 are
 now
 at
 the
 heart
 of
 the
 ongoing
 crisis
 ‐
 and
 explains
 why
 a
 special,

dedicated
 regulator
 is
 necessary
 to
 protect
 the
 safety
 and
 soundness
 of
 the
 financial
 system

from
problems
arising
in
institutions
that
are
too
big
or
too
interconnected
to
fail.


Chapter
6:
Hedge
Funds
in
the
Aftermath
of
the
Financial
Crisis
 
 
 
 
 19

Authors:
Stephen
Brown,
Marcin
Kacperczyk,
Alexander
Ljungqvist,
Anthony
Lynch,
Lasse
Pedersen
and

Matthew
Richardson
Since
 hedge
 funds
 provide
 liquidity
 to
 the
 market
 and
 do
 not
 receive
 guarantees
 from
 the

government,
 except
 for
 registration
 and
 appropriate
 disclosure,
 any
 additional
 regulation
 of

hedge
 funds
 is
 in
 general
 not
 warranted,
 except
 to
 the
 extent
 that
 hedge
 funds
 are
 generating

systemic
risk
and
so
are
imposing
externalities
on
the
financial
system.



5ect|on III: Governance, Incent|ves and Ia|r-va|ue Account|ng
Chapter
7:
Corporate
Governance
in
the
Modern
Financial
Sector
 
 
 
 21

Authors:
 Viral
 V.
 Acharya,
 Jennifer
 Carpenter,
 Xavier
 Gabaix,
 Kose
 John,
 Matthew
 Richardson,
 Marti

Subrahmanyam,
Rangarajan
Sundaram,
and
Eitan
Zemel

Mistakes
in
 corporate
 governance
are
 likely
 to
have
played
a
central
role
in
 the
global
financial

crisis;
 the
 white
 paper
 provides
 a
 review
 of
 what
 should
 be
 done,
 and
 shouldn't
 be
 done,
 to

improve
corporate
governance
in
financial
firms.


Chapter
8:
Rethinking
Compensation
in
Financial
Firms
 
 
 
 
 
 23

Authors:
Matthew
Richardson
and
Ingo
Walter

Misalignment
 of
 top
 management
 compensation
 and
 short‐term
 rewards
 to
 key,
 high‐
performance,
 risk‐taking
 employees
 has
 been
 associated
 with
 both
 shareholder
 losses
 and
 the

current
 crisis
 in
 the
 financial
 system,
 warranting
 a
 careful
 reexamination
 of
 compensation

practices
by
individual
firms
and
more
broadly
in
the
market
for
financial
talent.





©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

5

Chapter
9:
Fair
Value
Accounting:
Policy
Issues
Raised
by
the
Credit
Crunch
 
 
 25

Authors: 
Stephen
 Ryan

Recent
 criticisms
 of
 fair
 value
 accounting
 are
 overstated
 and
 do
 not
 acknowledge
 that

alternative
 measurement
 approaches
 would
 throw
 an
 accounting
 cloak
 over
 the
 very
 real
 and

sizeable
 problems
 that
 economic
 policymakers
 must
 confront;
 hence,
 policymakers
 should

support
existing
fair
value
accounting
requirements,
their
extension
to
all
financial
instruments,

and
 expanded
 mandatory
 and
 voluntary
 disclosure
 of
 the
 effects
 of
 market
 illiquidity
 on
 fair

values.



5ect|on IV: Der|vat|ves, 5hort 5e|||ng and 1ransparency
Chapter
10:
Derivatives
–
The
Ultimate
Financial
Innovation
 
 
 
 
 27

Authors:
Viral
V.
Acharya,
Menachem
Brenner,
Robert
Engle,
Anthony
Lynch
and
Matthew
Richardson

The
benefits
of
derivatives
outweigh
the
costs
associated
with
misusing
them;
however,
trading

in
OTC
derivatives
should
be
transparent
and
regulated
like
exchange‐traded
ones.


Chapter
11:
Centralized
Clearing
for
Credit
Derivatives
 
 
 
 
 
 29

Authors:
Viral
V.
Acharya,
Robert
Engle,
Steve
Figlewski,
Anthony
Lynch
and
Marti
Subrahmanyam

Existing
Credit
Default
Swaps
have
played
an
important
role
in
exacerbating
the
current
financial

crisis
 because
 the
 over‐the‐counter
 market
 they
 trade
 in
 is
 highly
 fragmented
 and
 opaque;
 to

keep
 them
 from
 playing
 such
 a
 central
 role
 in
 the
 next
 crisis,
 they
 should
 move
 to
 centralized

clearing
with
greater
transparency.


Chapter
12:
Short
Selling
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 31

Authors:
Menachem
Brenner
and
Marti
Subrahmanyam

The
benefits
of
short
sales
are
far
more
salutary
than
its
costs;
consequently,
there
should
be
no

restrictions
placed
on
short
selling,with
the
exception
of

a
ban
on
“naked”
shorting
and
a

requirement
for
timely,
transparent
reporting.


5ect|on V: 1he ko|e of the Ied
Chapter
13:
Regulating
Systemic
Risk
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 33

Authors:
Viral
V.
Acharya,
Lasse
Pedersen,
Thomas
Philippon
and
Matthew
Richardson

Prudential
regulation
should
be
based
on
a
financial
firm’s
contribution
to
losses
during
periods

of
increased
aggregate
risk
in
the
financial
system,
and
should
take
the
form
of
a
capital
charge

against
 each
 firm’s
 incremental
 contribution
 to
 systemic
 risk,
 an
 FDIC‐style
 premium
 for

systemic
 externalities,
 and/or
 the
 compulsory
 purchase
 of
 composite
 public
 and
 private

aggregate
risk
insurance.


Chapter
14:
Private
Lessons
for
Public
Banking:
The
Case
for
Conditionality
in
LOLR
Facilities

 35

Authors:
Viral
V.
Acharya
and
David
Backus

Central
 banks’
 lender‐of‐last‐resort
 facilities
 address
 the
 problem
 of
 illiquidity,
 but
 can

exacerbate
 issues
 of
 insolvency;
 consequently,
 these
 facilities
 should
 involve
 strict

conditionality,
such
as
the
material
adverse
change
clause
in
private
lines
of
credit,
and
thereby

be
accessible
only
to
healthy
institutions.




©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

6

5ect|on VI: 1he 8a||out
Chapter
15:
The
Financial
Sector
“Bailout”:
Sowing
the
Seeds
of
the
Next
Crisis
 
 
 37

Authors:
Viral
V.
Acharya
and
Rangarajan
Sundaram

In
contrast
to
the
financial
sector
rescue
plan
undertaken
by
the
UK,
that
of
the
US
is
excessively

favorable
 to
 a
 small
 set
 of
 financial
 institutions,
 represents
 a
 significant
 wealth
 transfer
 from

taxpayers
 to
 financial
 institutions,
 places
 no
 important
 restrictions
 on
 the
 institutions'

operations,
 and
 offers
 no
 clear
 path
 back
 to
 a
 market‐based
 system;
 in
 many
 ways,
 it
 may
 be

sowing
the
seeds
of
the
next
crisis.



Chapter
16:
Mortgages
and
Households

 
 
 
 
 
 
 39

Authors:
Andrew
Caplin
and
Thomas
Cooley

Existing
 approaches
 to
 dealing
 with
 troubled
 mortgages
 are
 doomed
 to
 failure
 because
 of

inherent
 design
 flaws,
 but
 a
 clear
 alternative
 that
 relies
 on
 shared
 appreciation
 mortgages

makes
both
economic
and
public
policy
sense
without
requiring
big
taxpayer
subsidies.



Chapter
17:
Where
Should
the
Bailout
Stop?
 
 
 
 
 
 
 41

Authors:
Edward
Altman
and
Thomas
Philippon


Car
 manufacturers
 should
 be
 allowed
 to
 reorganize
 under
 the
 protection
 of
 the
 bankruptcy

code,
and
the
government
should
provide
Debtor‐in‐Possession
financing
of
last
resort
–
but
no

bailout.




5ect|on VII: Internat|ona| Coord|nat|on
Chapter
18:
International
Alignment
of
Financial
Sector
Regulation

 
 
 
 43

Authors:
Viral
V.
Acharya,
Paul
Wachtel
and
Ingo
Walter

Attempts
 to
 repair
 national
 financial
 architectures
 may
 ultimately
 fail
 in
 the
 absence
 of

international
coordination.
We
recommend
that
large
country
central
banks
assume
the
key
role

of
systemic
risk
regulators
of
large,
complex
financial
institutions
(LCFIs),
convene
to
agree
on
a

set
of
sensible
core
principles
for
such
regulation,
present
a
plan
with
specific
recommendations

to
 national
 authorities
 and
 build
 a
 consensus
 for
 its
 acceptance,
 and
 monitor
 its

implementation.


Contributors
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 45








©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

7

Chapter
1:
Executive
Summary

Mortgage
Origination
and
Securitization

in
the
Financial
Crisis

uwlobt Ioffe. Aotboov lvocb. Mottbew klcbotJsoo ooJ 5tljo voo Nleowetbotob
Background

One
of
major
catalysts
for
the
current
financial
crisis
was
the
spate
of
defaults
and
foreclosures
in
2007

and
2008,
which
also
generated
considerable
dead
weight
costs
in
their
own
right.

Two
big
reasons
for

all
the
defaults
and
foreclosures
were
the
downturn
in
house
prices,
coupled
with
a
dramatic
decline
in

the
quality
of
mortgage
loans.
Several
factors
in
the
mortgage
market
contributed
to
this
latter
reason:


• Loan
 quality
 declined
 in
 large
 part
 because
 of
 one
 particular
 unintended
 consequence
 of

securitization,
namely,
that
mortgage
lenders
did
not
bear
the
costs
of
these
declines
in
loan
quality,

and
so
did
not
care
about
them.


• Another
likely
reason
for
 the
decline
in
loan
quality
 was
 the
 failure
of
lenders
 to
understand
exactly

the
terms
of
the
loans
they
were
being
offered,
which
rendered
them
unable
to
internalize
the
costs

of
default
and
foreclosure
fully.


• The
majority
of
the
loans
in
the
subprime
sector
were
hybrid
adjustable
rate
mortgages
(ARMs)
with

fixed
 rates
 for
 2
 to
 3
 years
 and
 adjustable
 rates
 thereafter.
 Because
 these
 adjustable
 rates
 were

offered
at
very
high
spreads,
the
mortgages
were,
for
all
intended
purposes,
meant
to
be
refinanced

or
 to
 default
 at
 the
 end
 of
 the
 2
 to
 3
 year
 period.
 The
 2/28
 and
 3/27
 ARMs
 were
 being
 offered

around
the
same
time
thus
creating
the
potential
for
an
unexpected
systemic
wave
of
refinancings
or

defaults.
The
 main
 reason
 for
 the
 financial
 crisis,
 however,
 was
 not
 these
 factors.
 We
 argue
 that
 the
 primary
 culprit

was
 that
 financial
 institutions
 did
 not
 follow
 the
 business
 model
 of
 securitization
 by
 transferring
 the
 credit

risk
 from
 their
 balance
 sheets
 to
 capital
 market
 investors.
 That
 is,
 by
 holding
 large
 amounts
 of
 mortgage‐
backed
 securities
 (MBSs)
 tied
 to
 nonprime
 mortgages
 at
 the
 time
 of
 their
 defaults,
 a
 number
 of
 financial

institutions
 (like
 Citigroup,
 UBS
 and
 Merrill
 Lynch)
 suffered
 huge
 losses
 as
 the
 values
 of
 these
 securities

tumbled.



The
Issues

How
 should
 mortgage
 loan
 origination
 and
 securitization
 be
 regulated
 in
 the
 aftermath
 of
 the
 crisis?


Some
of
the
major
regulatory
questions
are:

1. Can
“predatory
lending”
be
identified
and,
if
so,
how
can
it
be
regulated?
Will
 this
regulation
get
rid

of
the
systemic
nature
of
some
of
the
mortgage
products?

2. How
much
standardization
of
mortgage
loans
is
needed?
How
should
conforming
limits
be
set?

3. What
regulatory
limits
(if
any)
should
be
placed
on
securitization?

A
set
of
principles
can
help
frame
the
answers
to
these
questions.

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

8

Choice
 and
 innovation
 is
 good
 and
 non‐standard
 contracts
 can
 add
 value,
 because
 different
 households,
 by

virtue
 of
 where
 they
 are
 in
 the
 life‐cycle
 and
 the
 properties
 of
 their
 labor
 income
 risk,
 prefer
 different

contracts.
 
 At
 the
 same
 time,
 standardization
 is
 good
 because
 it
 promotes
 liquidity
 in
 the
 mortgage
 backed

securities
 (MBS)
 market
 because
 standardization
 makes
 the
 securities
 easier
 to
 value.
 
 Standardization
 also

limits
 predatory
 lending.
 
 There
 is
 clearly
 a
 tension
 between
 providing
 mortgage
 customers
 with
 choice
 and

innovation
while
at
the
same
time
protecting
them
from
predatory
lending
practices

Loan
originators
and
mortgage
brokers
need
to
be
incentivized
to
internalize
the
externalities
created
by
the

dead‐weight
 costs
 associated
 with
 defaults
 and
 foreclosures.
 Making
 sure
 mortgage
 customers
 fully

understand
the
terms
of
all
loan
products
offered
 to
them
helps
 them
 to
internalize
the
costs
that
they
bear

in
the
event
of
default
or
foreclosure.


Including
provisions
for
efficient
renegotiation
and
reorganization
of
a

loan
 in
 event
 of
 default
 can
 not
 only
 reduce
 the
 deadweight
 costs
 of
 foreclosure
 but
 can
 also
 make
 it
 more

difficult
to
securitize
the
loan.

There
is
therefore
a
trade‐off
and
the
exact
nature
of
any
included
provisions

is
likely
to
be
important.

Policy
Recommendations


1. The
 recent
 amendments
 to
 Regulation
 Z
 (Truth
 in
 Lending)
 by
 the
 Federal
 Reserve
 Board
 are
 a
 big

step
 towards
 protecting
 consumers
 from
 predatory
 practices
 among
 mortgage
 originators
 in
 the

subprime
space.

 The
new
protections
need
to
be
 construed
literally
so
 that
they
do
not
 restrict
the

income
 and
 asset
 combinations
 that
 creditors
 are
 allowed
 to
 find
 acceptable.
 It
 is
 highly
 likely
 that

this
will
remove
the
systemic
nature
of
the
mortgage
products.

2. Conforming
 loans
 should
 continue
 to
 be
 standardized
 and
 efforts
 should
 be
 made
 towards

standardization
for
non‐conforming
loans.

Households
should
also
have
access
 to
non‐standardized

products
 which
 should
 be
 subject
 to
 additional
 regulatory
 vetting
 to
 ensure
 that
 no
 predatory

lending
 is
 involved.
 Under
 the
 Housing
 and
 Economic
 Recovery
 Act
 of
 2008
 (HERA),
 the
 conforming

national
loan
limit
is
set
each
year
based
on
changes
in
average
home
prices
over
the
previous
year,

but
cannot
decline
from
year
to
year.

We
support
this
calculation
of
the
limit.

We
call
for
the
GSEs’

current
 mandate
under
 the
government’s
 economic
stimulus
package
to
purchase
loans
beyond
the

conforming
national
loan
limit
in
“high‐cost”
areas
to
become
permanent.

We
also
support
tying
the

conforming
“high‐cost”
area
limits
to
 regional
house
price
indices.

Since
125%
of
the
 median
house

price
 seems
 quite
 conservative,
 we
 favor
 that
 number
 over
 the
 more
 stringent
 115%
 that
 has
 been

adopted
for
next
year.

Finally,
we
support
the
abolition
of
the
maximum
dollar
cap
on
the
loan.


3. As
 before,
 loan
 originators
 should
 be
 able
 to
 securitize
 any
 standardized
 conforming
 mortgage

products
in
the
form
of
mortgage‐backed
securities.

Loan
originators
of
nonconforming
loans
should

have
 “skin‐in‐the‐game.”
 
 While
 the
 private
 market
 should
 be
 able
 to
 solve
 this
 problem
 without

regulation,
 one
 of
 the
 impediments
 is
 that
 these
 solutions
 will
 fail
 if
 anywhere
 in
 the
 securitization

chain
 a
 government
 guaranteed
 financial
 institution
 (e.g.,
 GSE,
 deposit
 institution,
 “too‐big‐to‐fail”

firm)
 is
 involved.
 For
 these
 cases,
 the
 guaranteed
 institutions
 may
 need
 to
 require
 that
 the

originators
 (i)
 hold
 a
 fraction
 of
 the
 loans;
 (ii)
 amortize
 the
 origination
 fee
 over
 some
 period
 of
 the

loan;
or
(iii)
not
be
able
to
“sell”
the
mortgage
servicing
rights.



Back
to
Table
of
Contents

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

9


Chapter
2:
Executive
Summary

How
Banks
Played
the
Leverage
“Game”

vltol v. Acbotvo ooJ lbll lpp 5cboobl
Background

Credit
risk
transfer mechanisms
such
as
securitization
are
simply
supposed
to
transfer
assets
and
risk
off

bank
balance
sheets
and
on
to
other
investors
in
the
economy.

Nevertheless,
it
appears
that
in
the

build‐up
to
the
financial
crisis,
banks
increased
their
leverage
and
exposure
to
aggregate
risk
precisely

by
availing
themselves
of
such
mechanisms.
In
the
process,
they
exposed
themselves
to
the
risk
that
a

significant
economy‐wide
shock
would
be
sufficient
to
wipe
out
their
capital
base
rapidly.

And,
as
we
all

know,
this
risk
did
indeed
materialize,
starting
with
an
increase
in
delinquencies
on
sub‐prime

mortgages
in
2006
and
2007
followed
by
the
subsequent
collapse
in
home
prices.



The
Issues

The
immediate
policy
questions
are
as
follows:


1. How
could
excessive
leverage
and
aggregate
risk
get
built
up
to
such
a
scale
in
a
financial
sector

that
is
so
heavily
regulated?


2. In
particular,
how
and
 why
did
 capital
adequacy
requirements
fail
in
their
stated
job
 of
limiting

bank
leverage
and
risk?


Credit
Risk
Transfer
and
Regulatory
Arbitrage

Our
analysis
of
the
credit
risk
transfer
mechanisms
employed
during
the
period
2003‐2007
suggest
the

answer
is
simple:
While
credit
risk
transfer
may
have
economic
merit
as
a
risk‐transfer
tool,
its
“dark”

side
is
that
many
of
its
incarnations
may
have
been
clever
innovations
of
the
financial
sector
to
arbitrage

regulation.
Such
regulatory
arbitrage
took
two
principal
forms:
first,
setting
up
of
asset‐backed

commercial
paper
(ABCP)
“conduits”
(and
its
sister
concerns
such
as
“SIVs”)
by
banks,
and,
second,

significant
retention
by
banks
of
AAA‐rated
asset‐backed
securities.



• ABCP
 conduits:
 Banks
 set
 up
 off‐balance‐sheet
 ABCP
 conduits
 where
 they
 transferred
 some
 of

the
 assets
 they
 would
 have
 otherwise
 held
 on
 their
 books,
 funded
 them
 with
 a
 sliver
 of
 equity

and
 the
 rest
 with
 rollover
 commercial
 paper,
 and
 provided
 lloolJltv eoboocemeot and
 cteJlt
eoboocemeot to
 these
 conduits.
 The
 enhancements
 implied
 that
 investors
 in
 conduits
 had

recourse
 to
banks
 in
case
the
 quality
of
assets
deteriorated.
 Put
simply,
 investors
 would
return

the
assets
back
 to
bank
once
they
suffered
a
 loss.
Such
enhancements
were
treated
as
capital‐
light
 in
 existing
Basel
rules
for
 capital
requirements.

 As
banks
rolled
out
more
and
 more
 ABCP

conduits,
 they
 increased
 their
 short‐term
 liabilities.
 
 But
 their
 effective
 or
 contingent
 leverage

remained
 in
 the
 “shadow”
 banking
 system.
 What
 is
 more,
 they
 were
 able
 to
 free
 up
 capital
 to

originate
more
assets,
generally
of
lower
quality,
and
hide
them
in
the
shadow
banking
system.

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

10

• Retention
 of
 AAA‐rated
 ABS:
 
 Banks
 also
 exploited
 the
 fact
 that
 they
 could
 get
 capital
 relief
 by

simply
 switching
 away
 from
 loans
 into
 investments
 in
 the
 form
 of
 AAA‐rated
 tranches
 of
 CDOs

and
 CLOs,
 which
 again
 had
 a
 significantly
 lower
 capital
 charge.
 About
 30%
 of
 all
 AAA
 asset‐
backed
 securities
 remained
 wltblo the
 banking
 system,
 and
 if
 one
 includes
 ABCP
 conduits
 and

SIVs
 that
 had
 recourse,
 this
 fraction
 rises
 to
 50%.
 
 While
 AAA‐rated
 securities
 are
 typically

expected
 to
 carry
 low
 absolute
 risk,
 the
 fact
 that
 the
 newer
 assets
 originated
 by
 banks
 were

down‐the‐quality‐curve
was
ignored
and
thus
their
ratings
were
overly
generous.


Regulatory
arbitrage
as
a
business
model
is
a
dangerous
undertaking.
While
it
brings
short‐run
rewards,

the
 lack
of
any
core
 economic
 value
rears
its
ugly
head
in
economic
downturns.
 Not
surprisingly,
banks

that
 had
 were
 more
 funded
 through
 ABCP
 relative
 to
 their
 equity
 and
 had
 greater
 capital‐light

investments,
suffered
the
greatest
losses
and
equity
price
declines
during
the
crisis.



Policy
Recommendations

1. Regulation
that
focuses
narrowly
on
just
one
performance
metric
of
banks
will
be
easy
to
game.

The
current
regulatory
focus
is
on
a
single
ratio
(capital
to
suitably
risk‐weighted
assets).


Regulators
should
take
a
more
rounded
approach
that
examines
bank
balance‐sheets
as
equity

or
credit
analysts
would
do.
By
relying
on
several
aspects
(such
as
loans
to
deposits,
insured

deposit
to
assets,
holdings
of
liquid
treasuries
and
OECD
government
bonds
relative
to
assets,

etc.)
regulators
would
have
an
“early
warning”
system
that
raises
a
flag
when
further

investigation
is
needed.



2. Regulators
should
recognize
that
isolated
failures
of
credit
intermediaries
are
not
a
problem
for

economies
per
se;
but
systemic
failures
of
many
credit
intermediaries
are.
This
intuitive

observation
suggests
that
regulation
designed
to
make
banks
individually
safer
may
encourage

excessive
credit
risk
transfer
that
makes
aggregate
crises
more
severe.
Hence,
the
bank

regulation
apparatus
around
us
needs
to
be
reformed
and
focused
more
on
aggregate
risk
to

the
economy
rather
than
on
a
single
capital
ratio
tied
to
individual
bank
risk.










Back
to
Table
of
Contents


©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

11


Chapter
3:
Executive
Summary

The
Rating
Agencies:
Is
Regulation
the

Answer?

Mottbew klcbotJsoo ooJ lowteoce wblte
Background

Credit
rating
agencies
—
the
three
major
ones
being
Moody’s,
Standard
&
Poor's,
and
Fitch—are
firms
that

offer
 judgments
 about
 the
 creditworthiness
 of
 bonds.
 Specifically,
 the
 agencies
 measure
 the
 likelihood
 of

default
on
debt
issued
by
various
kinds
of
entities,
such
as
corporations,
governments,
and
(most
recently)

securitizers
 of
 mortgages
 and
 other
 loan
 obligations.
 
 The
 lenders
 in
 credit
 markets,
 including
 investors
 in

bonds,
 are
 always
 trying
 to
 ascertain
 the
 creditworthiness
 of
 borrowers.
 
 Credit
 rating
 agencies
 are
 one

potential
source
of
such
information—but
they
are
far
from
the
only
potential
source.
Starting
in
the
1930s,

financial
regulators
have
required
that
their
financial
institutions
heed
the
judgments
of
the
rating
agencies

with
respect
to
these
 institutions'
bond
investments.
These
regulations,
motivated
 by
the
desire
for
safety

in
bond
portfolios,
have
played
a
major
role
in
thrusting
the
agencies
into
the
center
of
the
bond
markets.


By
 creating
a
category
("nationally
recognized
statistical
 rating
 organization",
 or
 NRSRO;
 in
 1975)
 of
 rating

agency
that
had
to
be
heeded,
and
then
subsequently
maintaining
a
barrier
to
entry
into
the
category,
the

Securities
 and
 Exchange
 Commission
 (SEC)
 further
 enhanced
 the
 importance
 of
 the
 three
 major
 rating

agencies.




The
 three
 major
rating
agencies
 in
the
 U.S.
 played
a
 central
role
 in
 the
recent
housing
bubble
and
 then
 in

the
 subprime
 mortgage
 debacle
 of
 2007‐08.
 
 The
 successful
 sale
 of
 the
 mortgage‐related
 debt
 securities

that
had
subprime
residential
mortgages
and
other
debt
obligations
as
their
underlying
collateral
depended

crucially
 on
 these
 agencies'
 initial
 ratings
 on
 these
 securities.
 
 When
 house
 prices
 stopped
 going
 up,
 and

began
 to
 decline
 instead,
 these
 initial
 ratings
 proved
 to
 be
 excessively
 optimistic
 ‐‐
 especially
 for
 the

mortgages
that
were
originated
in
2005
and
2006.
Mortgage
bonds
collapsed,
bringing
the
rest
of
the
U.S.

financial
sector
crashing
down
as
well.


Issues

Most
 market
participants
now
agree
 that
 the
quality
of
the
ratings
of
collateralized
debt
 obligations,
 even

ex oote,
 was
 poor.
 The
 question
 is
 why,
 and
 whether
 changes
 in
 regulation
 can
 forestall
 future
 such

behavior.
 The
 answer
 lies
 in
 the
 nature
 of
 the
 competition
 across
 the
 NRSROs.
 In
 theory,
 competition

among
rating
agencies
should
be
a
good
thing,
leading
 to
 innovation
and
higher
quality
research.
There
 is,

however,
a
problem
when
this
competition
is
put
into
practice.
On
the
one
hand,
in
the
“issuer
pays”
model

followed
by
the
three
major
players,
competition
can
lead
to
inflated
ratings
because
the
company
chooses

who
 should
 rate
 them.
 On
 the
 other
 hand,
 in
 the
 “investor
 pays”
 model
 where
 one
 might
 expect
 the

incentives
 to
 be
 better
 aligned,
 there
 is
 a
 free
 rider
 problem,
 and
 it
 is
 not
 clear
 how
 the
 free
 market
 can

solve
 it.

 Business
 models
 aside,
financial
 regulation
 may
 itself
be
 the
 root
 cause
 of
 the
problem
since
 the

basis
 of
 the
 NRSRO’s
 authority
 as
 the
 central
 source
 of
 information
 about
 the
 creditworthiness
 of
 bonds

decreases
competition
and
incentives
to
innovation.

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

12

Appropriate
public
policy
actions
 depend
importantly
 on
 what
one
perceives
as
the
fundamental
problem

vis‐à‐vis
 the
 credit
 rating
 agencies,
 and
 also
 on
 one's
 confidence
 in
 the
 ability
 of
 regulators
 to
 devise

effective
remedies.
We
propose
two
possible
models.

Policy
Recommendations

With
 respect
 to
 the
 rating
 agency’s
 business
 model
 of
 “issuer
 pays,”
 the
 SEC
 should
 create
 a
 department

that
houses
a
centralized
clearing
platform
for
ratings
agencies.

1. A
 company
 that
 would
 like
 its
 debt
 rated
 goes
 to
 the
 centralized
 clearing
 platform.
 Depending

on
the
attributes
of
the
security
(i.e.,
type
of
debt,
complexity
of
firm
and
issue,
whether
other

debt
outstanding
is
already
rated,
etc…),
a
flat
fee
would
be
assessed.


2. From
 a
 sample
 of
 approved
 rating
 agencies,
 the
 centralized
 clearing
 platform
 chooses
 which

agency
will
rate
the
debt.
While
this
choice
could
be
random,
a
more
systematic
choice
process

could
enhance
beneficial
competition.
The
choice
would
be
based
on
the
agency’s
experience
at

rating
 this
 type
 of
 debt,
 some
 historical
 perspective
 on
 how
 well
 the
 agency
 rates
 this
 type
 of

debt
relative
to
other
ratings
agencies,
past
audits
of
the
rating
agency’s
quality,
and
so
forth.


3. For
a
fee,
the
rating
agency
would
then
go
ahead
and
rate
the
debt.


This
 model
 has
 the
 advantage
 of
 simultaneously
 solving
 (i)
 the
 free
 rider
 problem
 because
 the
 issuer
 still

pays,
(ii)
the
conflict
of
interest
problem
because
the
agency
is
chosen
by
the
regulating
body,
and
(iii)
the

competition
problem
because
 the
regulator’s
 choice
 can
be
based
 on
some
degree
of
 excellence,
 thereby

providing
the
rating
agency
with
incentives
to
invest
resources,
innovate,
and
perform
high
quality
work.
It

does,
 however,
 put
 tremendous
 faith
 in
 the
 ability
 of
 the
 regulator
 to
 monitor
 and
 evaluate
 the
 rating

agencies’
performance.

Alternatively,
a
180‐degree
turn
would
be
to
withdraw
the
financial
regulations
that
thrust
the
rating

agencies
into
the
center
of
the
bond
markets.



1. The
 regulatory
 goal
 would
 still
 be
 for
 financial
 institutions
 to
 have
 safe
 bond
 portfolios,
 but

those
 institutions
 would
 have
 more
 latitude
 and
 flexibility
 with
 respect
 to
 where
 they
 could

seek
advice.


2. Therefore,
regulated
financial
institutions
 would
be
free
to
take
advice
from
sources
 that
they

considered
to
be
most
reliable
‐
based
on
the
track
record
of
the
advisor,
the
business
model
of

the
advisor
(including
the
possibilities
of
conflicts
of
interest),
the
other
activities
of
the
advisor

(which
 might
 pose
 potential
 conflicts),
 and
 anything
 else
 that
 the
 institution
 considered

relevant.



3. Again,
the
institution
would
have
to
justify
its
choice
of
advisor
to
its
regulator.

But,
subject
to

that
constraint,
the
bond‐advisory
information
market
would
be
opened
to
new
ideas
‐

about

business
models,
methodologies,
and
technologies
‐
and
new
entry
in
a
way
that
has
not
been

true
since
the
1930s.




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to
Table
of
Contents


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2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

13


Chapter
4:
Executive
Summary

What
to
Do
About
the
Government

Sponsored
Enterprises

uwlobt Ioffee. 5tljo voo Nleowetbotob. Mottbew klcbotJsoo. lowteoce wblte ooJ
kobett wtlobt
Background

The
 primary
 function
 of
 the
 two
 government
 sponsored
 enterprises
 (GSEs),
 Fannie
 Mae
 and
 Freddie

Mac,
is
to
purchase
and
securitize
mortgages.
The
securitized
mortgages
are
sold
off
to
outside
investors

with
 a
 guarantee
 of
 full
 payment
 of
 principal
 and
 interest.
 In
 addition,
 the
 GSEs
 hold
 some
 of
 the

purchased
 mortgages
as
 investments,
and,
 in
theory,
 help
 provide
liquidity
 to
the
secondary
 market
by

repurchasing
 the
 mortgage‐backed
 securities
 (MBS).
 They
 are
 major
 enterprises
 and
 play
 an

unquestionably
important
role
in
the
market
for
residential
mortgages.
The
residential
mortgage
market

is
 approximately
 10
 trillion
 dollars
 in
 size,
 55%
 of
 which
 is
 securitized.
 
 The
 GSEs
 retain
 a
 mortgage

portfolio
 of
 $1.5
 trillion
 and
 have
 securitized
 (and
 thus
 guaranteed
 the
 defaults
 of)
 $3.8
 trillion
 of

existing
mortgages.
Though
private
institutions,
the
GSEs
accept
some
regulatory
oversight
in
return
for

an
 implicit
 government
 guarantee
 of
 support.
 As
 a
 result,
 the
 GSEs’
 activities
 are
 funded
 through

“cheap”
 credit
 made
 available
 in
 capital
 markets
 under
 the
 presumed
 guarantee.
 The
 structure
 of
 the

GSEs
 leads
to
the
classic
moral
hazard
problem
in
 which
the
 lack
of
capital
 market
discipline
and
cheap

credit
provides
an
incentive
for
excessive
risk
taking.
In
fact,
even
though
the
GSEs’
portfolio
contained
a

variety
 of
 risks,
 including
 nonprime
 mortgages
 and
 long‐maturity
 prime
 ones,
 the
 GSEs
 had
 leverage

ratios
of
the
order
of
25
to
1.

The
 GSEs
 had
 two
 clear,
 negative
 influences
 on
 the
 financial
 system
 during
 the
 current
 crisis.
 The
 first

was
 their
 investments
 into
 the
 subprime
 and
 Alt‐A
 areas.
 By
 2007,
 over
 15%
 of
 their
 own
 outstanding

mortgage
portfolio
was
invested
in
non‐prime
assets,
an
amount
representing
10%
of
the
entire
market

for
 these
 assets.
 While
 not
 the
 only
 institutional
 culprit
 here,
 it
 is
 reasonable
 to
 assume
 that
 the
 mere

size
of
the
 GSEs
created
“froth”
and
“excess”
 liquidity
in
the
market.
The
second,
and
more
important,

effect
 was
 to
 introduce
 systemic
 risk
 into
 the
 system
 and
 therefore
 add
 to
 the
 growing
 financial
 crisis.

This
systemic
risk
came
in
three
forms.
First,
by
owning
such
a
large
(and
levered)
portfolio
of
relatively

illiquid
MBSs,
the
failure
of
the
GSEs
would
have
led
to
a
fire
sale
of
these
assets
that
would
in
turn
have

infected
the
rest
of
the
financial
system,
holding
similar
assets.
Second,
as
one
of
the
largest
investors
in

capital
 markets
 with
 notional
 amount
 positions
 of
 $1.38
 trillion
 and
 $523
 billion
 in
 interest
 rate
 swaps

and
 OTC
 derivatives
 respectively,
 the
 GSEs
 presented
 considerable
 counterparty
 risk
 to
 the
 system,

similar
in
spirit
to
LTCM
in
the
Fall
of
1998.
Third,
the
failure
of
the
GSEs
would
have
disrupted
the
firms’

ongoing
 MBS
 issue/guarantee
 business,
 with
 major
 consequences
 for
 the
 US
 mortgage
 markets
 and

obvious
dire
consequences
for
the
real
economy.





©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

14


The
Issues

It
is
now
clear,
of
course,
that
the
fears
of
a
systemic
meltdown
were
all
too
accurate,
and
that
the
GSE

model
 ‐
 combining
 a
 public
 mission
 with
 an
 implicit
 guarantee
 and
 a
 profit
 maximizing
 strategy
 ‐
 is

untenable.
Given
that
the
GSE
model
itself
is
flawed,
what
is
the
appropriate
reform
to
be
followed?

Let

us
consider
the
following
series
of
questions
and
answers
regarding
mortgages:

1. Should
mortgages
be
securitized
or
not?

A
majority
of
the
current
outstanding
mortgages
are
securitized
and
spread
throughout
the

worldwide
 investment
 community.
 It
 seems
 hard
 to
 believe
 that
 this
 quantity
 of
 assets

could
be
placed
as
whole
loans
within
the
banking
and
mortgage
lending
sectors.

2. If
securitized,
should
the
principal
and
interest
be
guaranteed?

While
there
is
room
for
securitization
both
with
and
without
guarantees,
approximately
68%

of
 the
 MBS
 market
 is
 agency‐backed
 whereas
 32%
 is
 non‐agency,
 some
 of
 which
 is
 also

privately
 insured.
 Over
 the
 past
 forty
 years,
 a
 $4
 trillion
 investment
 community
 has
 arisen

which
focuses
on
interest
rate
and
prepayment
risk
as
opposed
to
default
risk.
A
substantial

amount
 of
 human
 capital
 (i.e.,
 knowledge
 and
 training)
 and
 investment
 networks
 are

devoted
 to
 this
 product.
 Removing
 guarantees
 would
 cause
 a
 deadweight
 loss
 to
 all
 the

human
capital
invested
thus
far.

3. If
guaranteed,
should
the
guarantor
be
the
government
or
a
private
institution?


There
 are
 several
 obstacles
 to
 complete
 privatization
 of
 the
 guarantee
 function.
 Generally,

private
 institutions
 are
 not
 good
 insurers
 against
 systemic
 risk
 because,
 by
 definition,

systemic
 risk
 occurs
 very
 infrequently
 yet
 requires
 large
 amounts
 of
 capital
 on
 hand
 to

address
 that
 rare
 eventuality.
 Moreover,
 even
 if
 a
 party
 were
 willing,
 who
 will
 insure
 the

insurers?
 Is
 there
 any
 way
 to
 credibly
 signal
 that
 the
 government
 would
 not
 bailout
 these

private
institutions
in
times
of
a
crisis?


Policy
Recommendations


1. The
GSE
firms
should
continue
their
mortgage
guarantee
and
securitization
programs
for

conforming
mortgage
loans.
But
in
order
to
reduce
the
moral
hazard
problem
the
programs

should
now
operate
within
government
agencies,
in
a
format
parallel
to
the
current
Federal

Housing
Administration
(FHA)
and
successful
GNMA
programs.

2. The
investor
function
of
the
GSEs
should
be
discontinued.
The
current
setup
leads
to
“froth”
in

the
marketplace
such
as
the
support
for
weak
Alt‐A
and
subprime
loans,
and,
even
more

serious,
systemic
risk
due
to
the
moral
hazard
problem
of
the
GSEs
taking
risky
bets.





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to
Table
of
Contents


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2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

15


Chapter
5:
Executive
Summary

Enhanced
Regulation
of
Large,
Complex

Financial
Institutions

Aotboov 5oooJets. kov c. 5mltb. ooJ looo woltet
Background

Deregulation
 in
 the
 1990s
 gave
 rise
 to
 a
 new
 generation
 of
 what
 the
 Federal
 Reserve
 has
 called
 “large

complex
 financial
 institutions”
 (LCFIs).
 
 These
 are
 huge
 private
 sector
 enterprises
 engaged
 in
 a
 broad

array
 of
 financial
 services
 including
 commercial
 banking,
 investment
 banking,
 asset
 management
 and

insurance.

Banking
regulators
now
generally
regard
them
as
too‐big‐to‐fail
(TBTF).


The
 expanding
 LCFI
 share
 of
 the
 US
 financial
 services
 market
 suggests
 that
 the
 beneficial
 effects
 of

economies
 of
 scale
 and
 scope
 and
 related
 operating‐efficiencies
 outweigh
 the
 costs
 of
 complexity,

increased
risk‐exposure
and
conflicts
of
interest.
But
their
record
of
massive
credit
write‐offs,
regulatory

infractions,
 repeated
 legal
 settlements,
 and
 poor
 long‐term
 share
 price
 performance
 suggest
 the

opposite
conclusion.


In
 today’s
 global
 financial
 crisis,
 all
 of
 the
 LCFIs
 bailed
 out
 by
 governments
 were
 rescued
 because
 the

social
 cost
of
 their
failure
 was
considered
unacceptable.
 Whether
it
was
 Bear
Stearns,
FNMA,
 Citigroup

or
AIG,
creditors
who
bet
that
 these
firms
 were
too
big
to
fail
have
 won
 while
taxpayers
have
lost.
The

implicit
 public
 subsidy
 was
 there
 all
 along,
 and
 will
 surely
 be
 there
 going
 forward.
 If
 it
 continues,
 this

public
 subsidy
 will
 create
 perverse
 incentives
 and
 major
 distortions
 in
 financial
 market
 competition
 in

favor
 of
 LCFIs—and
 against
 financial
 intermediaries
 who
 have
 to
 survive
 on
 their
 own.
 Unless
 a
 new

regulatory
approach
to
LCFIs
 is
taken
up
 while
the
 current
 crisis
has
captured
everyone’s
attention,
 we

may
very
well
be
back
in
yet
another
crisis
only
a
few
years
down
the
road.


The
Issues

Current
 discussions
 of
 regulatory
 reform
 center
 on
 redefining
 risk‐adjusted
 capital
 adequacy
 for

financial
 intermediaries,
 requiring
 greater
 transparency
 for
 financial
 products,
 establishing
 a
 solid

infrastructure
for
derivatives
trading,
and
otherwise
improving
the
financial
system’s
robustness
with
as

little
 damage
 as
 possible
 to
 its
 efficiency
 and
 creativity.
 The
 policy
 options
 for
 financial
 institutions

include
 teoolotloo bv fooctloo
 (insurance,
 commercial
 banking,
 asset
 management
 and
 securities)
 or

alternatively
 teoolotloo bv tvpe of lostltotloo
 or
 charter
 (basically
 commercial
 banks,
 broker‐dealers,

managed
funds
and
 insurance
companies)
covering
all
of
 their
businesses.
 We
believe
 that
for
the
 vast

majority
of
financial
firms—those
that
are
not
LCFIs—the
first
option,
regulation
by
function,
stands
the

best
 chance
 of
 success.
 
 It
 will
 develop
 the
 depth
 of
 expertise
 needed
 to
 understand
 highly
 specialized

intermediation
 dynamics,
 and
 ensure
 that
 firms
 chartered
 to
 business
 in
 these
 key
 functions
 maintain

high
standards
and
conduct
themselves
appropriately.



©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

16


A
Different
Approach
to
Regulating
LCFIs

We
believe
that
regulation
by
function
is
not
enough
in
the
case
of
LCFIs.
We
advocate
a
third
option
‐
a

special,
JeJlcoteJ teoolotot fot lclls.

Why?
 Because
 LCFIs
 are
 both
 different
 in
 character
 from
 functional
 specialists
 and
 pose
 a
 much
 more

insidious
threat
to
the
global
financial
system.
Our
proposed
special
LCFI
regulator
would
be
responsible

oolv
 for
 financial
 firms
 identified
 as
 such,
 and
 would
 work
 closely
 with
 function‐based
 regulators

responsible
 for
 all
 other
 financial
 intermediaries.
 The
 dedicated
 LCFI
 regulator
 would
 encompass
 all
 of

the
 constituent
 functional
 areas
 of
 regulation‐by‐function,
 but
 at
 the
 same
 time
 be
 familiar
 with
 the

consequences
and
the
complex
and
network‐based
linkages
between
the
various
financial
activities
that

arise
within
LCFIs
–
complexity
that
itself
could
lead
to
systemic
failure.


Most
importantly,
the
regulator
 would
have
the
power
and
the
obligation
 to
 ensure
that
 LCFIs
operate

consistently
 with
 priority
 attention
 to
 the
 institution’s
 safety
 and
 soundness,
 even
 if
 this
 can
 only
 be

achieved
at
the
cost
of
reduced
growth
and
profitability.


Policy
Recommendations

As
 discussions
 of
 regulatory
 reform
 go
 forward,
 we
 recommend
 the
 creation
 and
 empowerment
 of
 a

dedicated
 regulator
 for
 LCFIs.
 This
 would
 require
 that
 LCFIs
 be
 identified
 as
 such
 and
 subjected
 to
 an

enhanced
 level
 of
 regulation
 to
 ensure
 their
 safety
 and
 soundness.
 Identification
 of
 those
 LCFIs
 to
 be

subject
 to
 special
 regulation
 would
 be
 based
 on
 measures
 of
 size
 in
 combination
 with
 measures
 of

complexity
 or
 interconnectedness.
 The
 LCFI
 regulator
 would
 specifically
 focus
 on
 capturing
 key
 risk

exposures
 and
 their
 interlinkages
 within
 the
 financial
 system,
 and
 on
 avoiding
 many
 of
 the
 risk

management
 failures
 and
 governance
 problems
 that
 characterize
 the
 current
 crisis.
 The
 dedicated
 U.S.

LCFI
 regulator
 would
 necessarily
 have
 to
 be
 linked
 as
 seamlessly
 as
 possible
 to
 his/her
 counterparts
 in

the
 Basel
 Accord
 participant
 countries
 so
 as
 to
 insure
 an
 effective
 level
 of
 global
 coordination
 and

prevent
regulatory
arbitrage.
Of
equal
importance
the
LCFI
regulator,
using
information
collected
in
this

role,
 will
 be
 able
 to
 price
 more
 accurately
 the
 government
 guarantee
 that
 inevitably
 underpins
 LCFIs.

Such
pricing
may
enable
setting
a
fair
baseline
insurance
cost
or
premium
that
is
linked
to
the
asset
size

and
 institution‐specific
 risk
 attributes
 of
 individual
 LCFIs,
 coupled
 to
 surcharges
 based
 on
 measurable

systemic
risk
exposures.








Back
to
Table
of
Contents


©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

17


Chapter
6:
Executive
Summary

Hedge
Funds
in
the
Aftermath
of
the

Financial
Crisis

5tepbeo 8towo. Motclo kocpetczvk. AlexooJet ljoooovl st. Aotboov lvocb. losse
leJetseo. Mottbew klcbotJsoo
Background

The
 available
 data
 show
 a
 remarkable
 diversity
 of
 management
 styles
 under
 the
 "hedge
 fund"
 banner.


Hedge
 funds
 are
 major
 participants
 in
 the
 so‐called
 shadow
 banking
 system,
 which
 runs
 parallel
 to
 the

more
standard
banking
system.

Hedge
funds
have
the
ability
to
short
sell
assets,
which
allows
them
to

use
 leverage,
 and
 leverage
 means
 that
 their
 equity
 value,
 absent
 limited
 liability,
 can
 go
 negative.


Hedge
 funds
 add
 value
 to
 the
 financial
 system
 in
 a
 number
 of
 ways:
 (i)
 by
 providing
 liquidity
 to
 the

market;
(ii)
by
correcting
fundamental
mispricing
in
the
market;
(iii)
through
their
trading,
by
increasing

price
 discovery;
 and
 (iv)
 by
 providing
 investors
 access
 to
 leverage
 and
 to
 investment
 strategies
 that

perform
well.


Hedge
 funds
 have
 certainly
 been
 in
 the
 thick
 of
 the
 current
 financial
 crisis.
 For
 example,
 it
 was
 the

collapse
 of
 two
 highly
 levered
 Bear
 Stearns
 hedge
 funds
 that
 initiated
 the
 collapse
 of
 the
 subprime‐
backed
collateralized
debt
obligations
(CDOs).
But
hedge
funds
didn’t
cause
the
growth
in
the
subprime

mortgage
 market,
 or
 make
 housing
 prices
 collapse
 so
 that
 subprime
 loans
 would
 default,
 or
 force

financial
institutions
(GSEs,
commercial
banks
and
broker‐dealers)
to
hold
$785
billion
worth
of
CDOs
on

their
books.
In
fact,
there
is
very
little
evidence
to
suggest
that
hedge
funds
caused
the
financial
crisis
or

that
 they
 contributed
 to
 its
 severity
 in
 any
 significant
 way.
 That
 being
 said,
 hedge
 funds,
 or
 subsets
 of

hedge
funds,
may
still
generate
systemic
risk
that
imposes
externalities
on
the
financial
system.

A
fund

that
 is
 sufficiently
 large
 and
 levered
 (like
 Long
 Term
 Capital
 Management
 [LTCM]
 in
 1998)
 could

generate
systemic
risk.



The
Issues

Hedge
funds
are,
for
the
most
part,
unregulated.

At
first
glance,
not
regulating
hedge
funds
seems
patently
unfair,
as
it
allows
them
to
take
advantage
of

regulatory
 arbitrage,
 namely
 the
 ability
 to
 offer
 intermediation
 services
 in
 direct
 competition
 with

regulated
 institutions
 like
 banks.
 
 However,
 this
 ignores
 the
 substantive
 advantage
 that
 banks
 have

through
either
the
explicit
guarantee
of
deposit
insurance
or
the
implicit
“too‐big‐to‐fail”
guarantee.


The
immediate
policy
issues
are
the
following:

• Should
 hedge
 funds
 be
 exempted
 from
 any
 of
 the
 financial
 system
 regulations
 aimed
 at

managing
the
systemic
risk
in
the
financial
system
(and
the
associated
externalities)?


• Under
what
circumstances
should
hedge
funds
be
subject
to
additional
regulation?

• What
forms
should
the
additional
regulation
(if
any)
take?

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

18

Policy
Recommendations


1. By
the
proprietary
nature
of
their
trading,
hedge
funds
are
not
 very
transparent
to
the
 market.

Lack
 of
 transparency
 of
 financial
 institutions
 can
 magnify
 financial
 crises
 due
 to
 counterparty

concerns.
A
 minimal
condition
 would
be
 that,
in
order
to
help
regulators
 measure
and
 manage

possible
systemic
risk,
hedge funds (of suff|c|ent s|ze) shou|d be requ|red to prov|de regu|ators
w|th regu|ar and t|me|y |nformat|on about both the|r asset pos|t|ons and |everage |eve|s.

2. Since
hedge
funds
do
not
receive
guarantees
from
the
government
and
so
are
not
subject
to
the

moral
 hazard
 problems
 associated
 with
 such
 guarantees,
 any
 additional
 regulation
 of
 hedge

funds
over
and
above
that
advocated
above
is
in
general
not
warranted.

The
exception
is
when

hedge
funds
impose
externalities
on
the
financial
system.
For
example, |f a hedge fund fa||s |nto
the c|ass of |arge comp|ex f|nanc|a| |nst|tut|ons, then that fund needs to be treated as a
system|c |nst|tut|on to be regu|ated (and taxed) as such. We
also
make
several
suggestions
for

cases
 in
 which
 a
 subset
 of
 funds
 (“systemic‐risk”
 subset)
 together
 imposes
 externalities
 on
 the

financial
system.

3. Managed
funds
(mutual
funds,
money
market
funds,
SIVs,
and
hedge
funds)
are
subject
to
bank‐
like
 runs
 on
 their
 assets.
 These
 runs
 can
 trigger
 systemic
 liquidity
 spirals.
 In
 the
 current
 crisis,

both
 the
 commercial
 paper
 market
 (in
 August
 2007)
 and
 money
 market
 (in
 September
 2008)

seized
 up
 when
 a
 managed
 fund
 in
 these
 markets
 stopped
 redemptions
 due
 to
 exposures
 to

subprime
AAA‐rated
CDOs
and
Lehman
Brothers’
short‐term
debt,
respectively.
 nedge funds |n
a system|c-r|sk subset may need regu|at|on that d|scourages |nvestors from w|thdraw|ng funds
after bad performance,
since
bad
performance
(and
lack
of
transparency)
by
a
fund
may
lead
to

a
run
on
the
fund’s
assets
 under
management.
 Any
such
regulation
 would
impose
 costs
on
the

hedge
fund
investors,
 which
 must
be
balanced
against
the
benefits
obtained
from
the
systemic

risk
reduction.
We
propose
a
market‐oriented
solution
that
weighs
this
balance.

4. A
 more
 controversial
 question
 is
 whether
 special
 regulation
 is
 needed
 for
 hedge
 funds
 with

respect
 to
 public
 transparency
 of
 asset
 positions
 and
 leverage
 (e.g.,
 along
 the
 lines
 of
 more

Form
13F‐like
filings).
This
decision
involves
balancing
the
benefits
and
costs
to
hedge
funds
and

investors.
 The
 largest
 concern
 relating
 to
 transparency
 is
 counterparty
 risk,
 and
 these

counterparty
 issues
 are
 most
 relevant
 with
 OTC
 derivatives.
 It
 may
 be
 that
 by
 fixing
 the
 cracks

elsewhere
 in
 the
 system,
 e.g.,
 creating
 a
 clearing
 house/exchange
 structure
 for
 large
 OTC

derivative
 markets,
 
 the transparency goa| can be reached w|thout hav|ng to |mpose onerous
regu|at|on on the hedge fund commun|ty.







Back
to
Table
of
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©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

19


Chapter
7:
Executive
Summary

Corporate
Governance
in
the
Modern

Financial
Sector

vltol v. Acbotvo. Ieool fet cotpeotet. \ovlet Cobolx. kose Iobo. Mottbew
klcbotJsoo. Mottl 5obtobmoovom. kooootojoo 5ooJotom. £ltoo 2emel
Background

The
large,
 complex
financial
 institutions
(LCFIs)
are
highly
 levered
 entities
 with
over
 90%
leverage.
This

highly‐levered
nature
makes
them
prone
to
excessive
leverage‐
and
risk‐taking
tendencies.

By
and
large

LCFIs
 also
 have
 explicit
 deposit
 insurance
 protection
 and
 almost
 always
 an
 implicit
 too‐big‐to‐fail

guarantee.

The
presence
of
such
guarantees
–
often
un‐priced
and
at
best
mis‐priced
–
has
blunted
the

edge
of
the
debt
monitoring
that
would
otherwise
exert
an
important
market
discipline
on
risk‐taking
by

these
firms.

Although
there
is
mounting
evidence
pointing
to
weaknesses
in
equity
governance
of
these

firms,
 the
 high
 leverage
 they
 have
 undertaken
 and
 the
 failure
 of
 their
 internal
 risk
 management

practices
also
suggest
weakness
and
failure
of
regulatory
governance.


Perhaps,
 even
 more
 importantly,
 the
 ever‐increasing
 complexity
 of
 LCFIs
 has
 rendered
 weak,
 if
 not

impotent,
 the
 role
 of
 governance
 from
 existing
 shareholders
 and
 non‐executive
 board
 members.
 For

LCFIs,
 the
 traditional
 board
 model
 suitable
 for
 industry—characterized
 by
 infrequent
 meetings
 and
 a

landscape
 that
 is
 not
 likely
 to
 undergo
 fast
 and
 dramatic
 changes—is
 not
 entirely
 suitable.
 
 Thus
 it
 has

become
 increasingly
 difficult
 for
 LCFI
 boards
 to
 grasp
 fully
 the
 swiftness
 and
 forms
 by
 which
 the
 risk

profiles
of
these
institutions
can
be
altered
by
traders
and
securities
desks.



The
Issues

Can
the
regulatory
governance
of
LCFIs
be
altered
in
some
robust
way
that
reins
in
their
risk‐taking
to

efficient
levels?

• Can
boards
and
regulators
who
do
not
 interact
on
a
daily
basis
 with
 the
relevant
profit
 centers

of
 LCFIs
 ever
 be
 expected
 to
 achieve
 desirable
 outcomes
 based
 purely
 on
 monitoring
 and

questioning?
 
 We
 believe
 not.
 Can
 they,
 however,
 ensure
 that
 lotetool oovetoooce
 in
 the
 form

of
judicious
design
of
incentives
and
compensation
is
set
up
correctly
to
achieve
this
objective?

Policy
Recommendations

1. On
 the
 regulatory
 front,
 our
 most
 important
 policy
 recommendation
 is
 that,
 to
 the
 extent

feasible,
regulators
should
price
the
guarantees
right
 –
that
 is,
 commensurate
 with
 the
level
 of

risk
of
these
institutions
–
and
on
a
continual
basis.


2. With
respect
to
Boards,
a
potential
mechanism
for
strengthening
regulatory
governance
may
be

to
 require
 that
 the
 board
 of
 directors
 of
 these
 LCFIs
 include
 a
 regulator
 and
 one
 or
 more

prominent
subordinated
debt
holders.
Since
there
are
several
impediments
–
political
as
well
as

practical
–
to
implementing
our
recommendation
uniformly
at
all
banks,
an
alternative
proposal

is
 that
 all
 independent
 board
 members
 be
 educated
 in
 the
 operational
 details
 and
 complex

products
of
the
LCFIs.

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

20

3. On
 the
 internal
 governance
 front,
 we
 recommend
 that
 regulators
 and
 boards
 pay
 special

attention
 to,
 and
 help
 improve,
 capital
 budgeting
 practices
 and
 performance
 assessment

standards
 for
 both
 top
 management
 and
 traders
 alike.
 
 We
 do
 not
 propose,
 however,
 that
 the

regulators
mandate
compensation
structures
at
micro
levels.

Rather,
we
suggest
that
they
seek

relatively
un‐intrusive
ways
of
helping
the
industry
coordinate
its
efforts
in
this
area.
Given
that

financial
firms
seem
to
be
caught
up
in
a
bad
equilibrium
where
a
firm
attempting
to
implement

a
more
efficient
long‐term
compensation
plan
fears
that
it
will
lose
its
employees
to
other
firms

that
do
not,
perhaps
this
may
be
the
best
service
regulators
can
provide.
On
this
front,
we
have

several
concrete
proposals:


a. Compensation
structures
should
induce
management
to
maximize
the
total
value
of
the

enterprise
(for
example,
return
on
assets
–
ROA)
and
not
just
the
equity
value
(return
on

equity
–
ROE)
as
is
commonly
the
practice.
Maximizing
the
latter
when
debt
is
not
fairly

or
continuously
priced
induces
excessive
leverage‐
and
risk‐taking
incentives.


b. Return
 on
 assets
 should
 be
 benchmarked
 against
 a
 cost
 of
 capital
 that
 reflects
 not
 just

the
 cost
 in
 good
 times
 when
 guarantees
 render
 the
 cost
 of
 debt
 essentially
 flat
 and

invariant
 to
 risk,
 but
 also
 in
 bad
 times,
 when
 these
 firms
 are
 forced
 to
 make

shareholder‐value
 diluting
 equity
 or
 subordinated
 debt
 issuances.
 An
 extension
 of
 this

practice
would
be
to
adjust
the
cost
of
debt
to
the
“true”
(or
without
guarantee)
cost
so

that
management
and
traders
are
not
creating
value
oolv through
regulatory
arbitrage.

c. Existing
compensation
structures
seem
too
short‐term,
which
 works
to
induce
perverse

risk‐taking,
 and
 to
 an
 extent,
 regulatory
 arbitrage,
 incentives.
 
 We
 propose
 that
 LCFIs

should
 use
 more
 long‐term
 contracts
 that
 include
 deferred
 compensation
 features.

Restricted
 stock,
 claw
 backs,
 and
 bonus
 pools
 tied
 to
 long‐term
 profits,
 would
 all
 be

features
that
implement
optimal
top‐management
structures.




















Back
to
Table
of
Contents

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

21


Chapter
8:
Executive
Summary

Rethinking
Compensation
in
Financial

Firms

Mottbew klcbotJsoo ooJ looo woltet
Background

The
 unprecedented
 government
 bailout
 of
 financial
 markets
 and
 firms
 in
 the
 current
 crisis
 has
 forced

executive
 compensation
 in
 banking
 and
 finance
 into
 the
 open.
 As
 Paul
 Volcker
 noted
 last
 April,
 “The
 bright

new
 financial
 system—for
 all
 its
 rich
 rewards
 and
 unimaginable
 wealth
 for
 some—has
 failed
 the
 test
 of
 the

marketplace
by
repeatedly
risking
a
cascading
breakdown
of
the
system
as
a
whole.”
Taxpayers
wonder
how

highly
paid
banking
“talent”
could
have
been
instrumental
in
creating
a
financial
disaster
of
epic
proportions.


And
 having
 been
 forced
 to
 take
 equity
 stakes
 in
 most
 of
 the
 largest
 US
 and
 foreign
 financial
 firms
 and

guarantee
 their
 debt,
 taxpayers
 naturally
 feel
 that
 they
 ought
 to
 have
 a
 say
 in
 how
 such
 people,
 now
 in

publicly
 supported
 private
 institutions,
 get
 rewarded.
 The
 defenders
 of
 privately
 determined
 approaches
 to

compensation
in
financial
institutions
might
wish
otherwise,
but
this
is
now
a
high‐profile
political
issue
in
the

US
and
elsewhere,
inexorably
intertwined
with
re‐stabilization
of
the
financial
system.


The
Issues

Two
 issues
 appear
 to
 stand
 out
 –
 compensation
 of
 top
 management
 and
 compensation
 of
 key
 cohorts
 of

“high
performance”
employees.

1. To
 the
 extent
 that
 the
 pay
 packages
 of
 senior
 management
 deviate
 materially
 from
 the
 long‐term

financial
 interests
 of
 shareholders,
 any
 overcompensation
 problem
 is
 a
 failure
 of
 corporate

governance.
It
is
important
to
note,
however,
that
 the
 top
executives
of
banking
and
financial
 firms

tend
to
be
paid
largely
in
shares,
with
at
least
some
minimum
retention
period
required.
So
some
of

the
 top
 executives
 in
 the
 firms
 that
 melted‐down
 have
 lost
 fortunes
 along
 with
 their
 taxpayers.
 In

that
 sense
 the
 system
 actually
 works
 pretty
 well.
 Reward
 and
 punishment
 are
 to
 some
 extent

aligned,
 and
 powerful
 signals
 are
 sent.
 It
 may
 in
 fact
 be
 possible
 that
 the
 financial
 industry
 has
 a

better
senior
 management
pay‐for‐performance
 track
 record
 than
many
other
industries.
 When
 the

system
 fails,
 it
 often
 seems
 to
 involve
 massive
 exit
 packages
 (rewards
 for
 failure)
 or
 executives

liquidating
 shares
 that
 turn
 out,
 after
 the
 fact,
 to
 have
 been
 overvalued
 at
 the
 time
 of
 sale.
 So
 the

real
 issue
 may
 not
 require
 the
 wholesale
 redesign
 of
 top
 management
 compensation,
 but
 rather

should
address
 the
difficulties
investors
have
in
perceiving
risks
and
accurately
valuing
 the
equity
of

financial
firms.


2. It
 has
 been
 suggested
 that
 the
 dynamics
 of
 the
 market
 for
 high‐performance
 finance
 professionals,

together
 with
 a
 long‐established
 bonus‐pool
 reward
 system,
 has
 led
 to
 an
 epidemic
 of
 “fake
 alpha”

in
 the
 industry
 –
 that
 is,
 compensation
 based
 on
 short‐term
 excess
 returns
 through
 the
 current

bonus
pool.
Performance
over
the
current
accounting
period
cannot
take
into
account
lower
returns

or
 losses
 in
 subsequent
 periods
 for
 which
 current
 activities
 are
 responsible.
 Since
 it
 is
 impossible
 to

determine
these
until
some
time
has
passed,
compensation
based
on
current
reported
earnings
may


not
 be
 justified.
 This
 problem
 has
 been
 blamed
 for
 perverse
 incentives
 facing
 key
 employees
 in
 the

financial
 industry
 in
 areas
 like
 sales
 and
 trading,
 securitization
 and
 financial
 engineering.
 Employees

are
 encouraged
 to
 (i)
 maximize
 current
 compensation
 to
 themselves,
 possibly
 at
 the
 expense
 of

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

22

shareholders,
(ii)
maximize
the
use
of
leverage
without
regard
to
its
impact
on
bankruptcy
risk
of
the

firm,
and
(iii)
report
to
senior
management
and
regulators
that
all
is
well
when
in
fact
it
is
not.



To
 understand
 how
 this
 point
 is
 relevant
 for
 the
 current
 financial
 crisis,
 note
 that
 financial
 firms
 (i.e.,
 the

GSEs,
 banks
 and
 broker/dealers)
 held
 48%
 of
 the
 $1.65
 trillion
 worth
 of
 AAA‐rated
 collateralized
 debt

obligations
(CDOs)
of
non‐prime
mortgages.
This
is
puzzling
because
the
whole
purpose
behind
securitization

is
to
transfer
the
credit
risk
away
from
financial
institutions
to
capital
market
investors.
By
holding
onto
such

large
 amounts
 of
 the
 AAA‐rated,
 non‐agency‐backed
 CDOs,
 the
 CDO
 desks
 of
 firms
 were
 for
 all
 economic

purposes
 writing
 deep
 out‐of‐the‐money
 put
 options
 on
 the
 housing
 market.
 In
 other
 words,
 these
 desks

were
 taking
 huge
 asymmetric
 bets
 which
 would
 payout
 in
 most
 periods
 albeit
 with
 large
 exposure
 to
 a

significant
economy‐wide
shock.
Because
the
risk
management
systems
of
the
firms
treated
these
AAA
CDOs

as
 essentially
 riskless,
 the
 CDO
 desks
 booked
 the
 premiums
 as
 instant
 profit
 (which
 had
 a
 spread
 roughly

double
that
of
other
AAA‐rated
securities)
and
thereby
receiving
big
bonuses
with
the
incentive
to
load
up
on

them
–
hence,
the
financial
crisis
of
2007‐2008.

Policy
Recommendations

It
 would
 be
 surprising
 if
 financial
 firms
 –
 alongside
 the
 current
 epidemic
 of
 reduced
 or
 forfeited
 top

management
 bonuses
 as
 a
 result
 of
 collapsed
 business
 conditions
 –
 do
 not
 start
 to
 think
 through

compensation
approaches
more
closely
aligned
to
risk
exposure
and
shareholder
interest.

1. Greater
disclosure
and
transparency
of
compensation
practices,
not
necessarily
major
retargeting
of

top
management
compensation,
in
order
to
apply
greater
market
discipline
to
 top
management
pay

practices.

2. For
 senior
 management,
 longer
 stock
 holding
 periods
 and
 stricter
 forfeiture
 rules
 would
 probably

make
 sense
 –
 for
 example,
 failed
 senior
 executives
 who
 are
 ejected
 might
 confront
 a
 minimum
 36

month
holding
period
for
the
shares
they
take
with
them.

3. For
 high‐performance
 “risk‐taking”
 employees,
 an
 interesting
 idea
 is
 the
 booos/molos
 approach.
 In

good
times,
with
a
rising
tide
lifting
all
boats,
the
combination
of
the
rising
tide
and
leverage
makes
it

impossible
 to
 tell
good
producers
from
bad
ones,
since
 most
people
generate
decent
 to
spectacular

returns.
It
is
in
bad
times
that
the
wheat
is
separated
from
the
chaff.
So
compensation
should
have
a

multi‐year
 structure,
 with
 bad
 performances
 subtracting
 from
 the
 bonus
 pool
 in
 the
 same
 way
 that

good
performances
add
to
it.

4. Given
 the
fluid
 market
for
 financial
 talent,
no
 single
firm
can
get
very
 far
on
its
own.
Unless
 there
is

some
 consensus
 on
 best
 practices,
 and
 the
 industry
 moves
 in
 tandem
 toward
 a
 new
 and
 more

rational
 way
 of
 compensating
 its
 key
 performers,
 individual
 experiments
 will
 surely
 fail
 as
 business

picks
 up,
 competition
 intensifies,
 and
 happy
 days
 are
 here—again—leaving
 the
 taxpayer
 to
 pick
 up

the
 tab
 once
 again
 in
 the
 next
 financial
 crisis.
 Consequently,
 we
 advocate
 a
 “convoy
 approach”

whereby
the
key
financial
firms
that
dominate
global
 markets
agree
on
a
basic
code
of
best
practice

for
compensating
high‐performance
risk‐taking
employees.




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2008
New
York
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of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

23


Chapter
9:
Executive
Summary

Fair
Value
Accounting:
Policy
Issues

Raised
by
the
Credit
Crunch

5tepbeo kvoo
Background


The
practical
applicability
of
fair
value
accounting
has
been
tested
by
the
severely
illiquid
and
otherwise

disorderly
 markets
 for
 subprime
 and
 some
 other
 positions
 during
 the
 ongoing
 credit
 crunch.
 This
 fact

has
led
 various
parties
 to
raise
three
main
potential
criticisms
of
fair
 value
accounting.
First,
unrealized

losses
 recognized
 under
 fair
 value
 accounting
 may
 reverse
 over
 time.
 Second,
 market
 illiquidity
 may

render
 fair
 values
 difficult
 to
 measure,
 yielding
 overstated
 or
 unreliable
 reported
 losses.
 Third,
 firms

reporting
 unrealized
 losses
 under
 fair
 value
 accounting
 may
 yield
 adverse
 feedback
 effects
 that
 cause

further
 deterioration
 of
 market
 prices
 and
 increase
 the
 overall
 risk
 of
 the
 financial
 system
 (“systemic

risk”).
These
parties
typically
advocate
one
of
two
alternatives:
 either
abandoning
fair
value
accounting

and
returning
to
some
form
of
amortized
cost
accounting
or,
less
extreme,
altering
fair
value
accounting

requirements
 to
 reduce
 the
 amount
 of
 firms’
 reported
 losses.
 While
 each
 of
 the
 potential
 criticisms
 of

fair
value
accounting
contains
some
truth,
all
of
these
criticisms
are
overstated
and
do
not
acknowledge

the
far
more
severe
limitations
of
the
advocated
alternative
accounting
measurement
approaches.


The
Issues

Like
 any
 other
 accounting
 system,
 fair
 value
 accounting
 has
 its
 limitations,
 both
 conceptual
 and

practical.
The
relevant
questions
for
policymakers
to
ask
are:


1. Does
 fair
 value
 accounting
 provides
 more
 useful
 information
 to
 market
 participants
 than
 the

alternative
 accounting
 measurement
 approaches
 (generally
 some
 form
 of
 amortized
 cost

accounting)?
 The
 answer
 is
 yes,
 because
 these
 alternative
 approaches
 invariably
 suppress
 the

reporting
 of
 some
 or
 all
 unrealized
 gains
 and
 losses
 and
 thereby
 reduce
 firms’
 incentives
 for

voluntary
 disclosure.
 Such
 suppression
 of
 critical
 information
 would
 prolong
 the
 price
 and

resources
allocation
adjustment
processes
that
are
necessary
to
put
the
current
crisis
behind
us.





2. Can
the
FASB
improve
FAS
157’s
guidance
regarding
fair
value
measurement
to
cope
better
with

illiquid
 or
 otherwise
 disorderly
 markets?
 
 Once
 again,
 the
 answer
 is
 yes;
 the
 FASB
 can
 provide

additional
guidance
about
when
market
illiquidity
is
so
great
that
firms
may
estimate
fair
values

using
 internal
 models
 instead
 of
observable
but
 low
quality
 market
 information
and
also
about

how
to
estimate
illiquidity
risk
premia.



©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

24


A 1e|||ng n|stor|ca| Ana|ogy: 1he 1hr|ft Cr|s|s





The
thrift
crisis
began
when
interest
rates
rose
during
the
first
oil
crisis/recession
in
1973‐1975,
causing

thrifts’
fixed‐rate
mortgage
assets
to
experience
large
economic
losses
that
were
not
recognized
under

amortized
cost
accounting.
Because
these
economic
losses
were
unrecognized,
bank
regulators
and

other
economic
policymakers
allowed
the
crisis
to
fester
for
a
decade
and
a
half—effectively

encouraging
thrifts
to
invest
in
risky
assets,
exploit
deposit
insurance,
and
in
some
cases
even
commit

fraud
in
the
meantime,
activities
that
significantly
worsened
the
ultimate
cost
of
the
crisis—until
the

crisis
was
effectively
addressed
through
the
Financial
Institutions
Reform,
Recovery,
and
Enforcement

Act
of
1989
and
the
Federal
Deposit
Insurance
Corporation
Improvement
Act
of
1991.
These
acts

required
troubled
thrifts
to
be
shut
down
with
their
assets
sold
through
the
Resolution
Trust

Corporation,
prohibited
regulatory
forbearance,
and
various
other
direct
actions.
Similarly
direct

policymaking
is
needed
now,
and
it
must
not
be
deterred
by
throwing
an
accounting
cloak
over
very
real

and
sizeable
problems.
Policy
Recommendations


1. Policymakers
should
support
 existing
fair
 value
accounting
requirements
and
their
 extension
 to

all
financial
instruments.

2. The
FASB
should
provide
additional
guidance
about

a. when
 market
 illiquidity
 is
 so
 great
 that
 firms
 may
 estimate
 fair
 values
 using
 internal

models
instead
of
observable
but
low
quality
market
information
and

b. how
to
measure
illiquidity
risk
premia.

3. The
 FASB
 and
 SEC
 should
 require
 firms
 to
 make
 additional
 mandatory
 disclosures
 and
 strongly

encourage
them
to
make
additional
voluntary
disclosures
about
their
unrealized
fair
value
gains

and
losses
and
how
they
have
resulted
from
market
illiquidity.










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2008
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25


Chapter
10:
Executive
Summary

Derivatives
‐
The
Ultimate
Financial

Innovation

vltol v. Acbotvo. Meoocbem 8teooet. kobett £oole. Aotboov lvocb ooJ Mottbew
klcbotJsoo
Background

Derivatives
are
financial
contracts
whose
value
is
derived
from
some
underlying
asset.
These
assets
can

include
equities,
bonds,
exchange
rates,
commodities,
residential
and
commercial
mortgages.
The
more

common
forms
of
these
contracts
 include
options,
forwards/futures
and
swaps.
A
 considerable
portion

of
 financial
 innovation
 over
 the
 last
 30
 years
 has
 come
 from
 the
 emergence
 of
 derivative
 markets.

Generally,
 the
 benefits
 of
 derivatives
 fall
 into
 the
 areas
 of
 (i)
 hedging
 and
 risk
 management,
 (ii)
 price

discovery,
 and
 (iii)
 enhancement
 of
 liquidity.
 Even
 in
 the
 current
 financial
 crisis,
 the
 derivative

scapegoat,
 credit
 default
 swaps
 (CDS),
 has
 played
 some
 positive
 roles.
 For
 example,
 CDSs
 enabled

lenders
 to
 hedge
 their
 risk
 and
 offer
 loans.
 When
 the
 securitization
 market
 for
 loans,
 bonds
 and

mortgages
 shutdown
 in
 the
 summer
 of
 2007,
 a
 number
 of
 financial
 institutions
 were
 left
 holding
 large

loan
portfolios.
Using
the
CDS
market,
some
of
these
financial
institutions
smartly
hedged
out
their
risk

exposure.
 In
 addition,
 CDSs
 and
 other
 credit
 derivatives
 have
 played
 a
 very
 important
 role
 in

disseminating
 information
 to
 both
 the
 public
 and
 to
 regulators:
 from
 judging
 the
 quality
 of
 financial

firm’s
 bankruptcy
 prospects
 in
 a
 remarkably
 prescient
 way,
 from
 providing
 credit
 risk
 estimates
 that

were
central
to
 the
U.K.
 government’s
bailout
plan,
and
from
revealing
 in
 early
 2007
 declines
in
values

of
subprime‐backed
assets.

The
Issues


For
over
30
years
derivatives
markets
functioned
very
well,
so
what
went
wrong
this
time?


The
 problems
 that
 arose
 were
 not
 associated
 with
 all
 derivatives,
 but
 primarily
 with
 over‐the‐counter

(OTC)
derivatives
and,
in
particular,
the
newer
credit
derivative
market.
And,
even
then,
the
issue
should

not
be
with
the
derivatives
as
an
instrument,
but
with
(i)
the
way
they
were
traded
and
cleared,
and
(ii)

how
they
were
used
by
some
financial
institutions
to
increase
their
exposure
to
certain
asset
classes.

Double
 counting
 of
 contracts
 aside,
 the
 CDS
 and
 CDO
 markets
 are
 nevertheless
 huge,
 having
 grown
 to

well
 over
 $50
 trillion
 in
 notional
 amounts
 in
 a
 short
 period
 of
 time.
 Yet
 there
 was
 a
 complete
 lack
 of

transparency
about
the
underlying
exposures
of
financial
institutions
to
this
market.
In
the
OTC
market,

because
 contracts
 are
 bilateral,
 no
 one
 knows
 precisely
 what
 the
 total
 exposure
 is,
 where
 it
 is

concentrated,
 what
 the
 values
 are
 of
 such
 contracts,
 and
 so
 forth.
 In
 the
 current
 crisis,
 this
 effect
 was

amplified
 by
 the
 complexity
 of
 credit
 derivatives,
 and
 especially
 the
 subprime
 CDOs
 on
 which,
 to
 this

date,
we
still
do
not
have
a
handle.


Each
financial
institution
and
market
participant
will
act
in
their
own
interest
to
manage
their
risk/return

tradeoff.
 These
 actions
 may
 not
 take
 into
 account
 the
 spillover
 risk
 throughout
 the
 system.
 The
 most

important
 principle
 underlying
 the
 regulation
 of
 derivatives
 must
 encircle
 two
 primary
 issues:
 (i)

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

26

counterparty
 credit
 risk
 exposure
 which
 can
 generate
 illiquidity
 and
 can
 cause
 markets
 to
 break
 down,

and
 (ii)
 capital
 erosion,
 if
 large
 and
 concentrated
 in
 institutions
 that
 provide
 liquidity
 to
 the
 financial

system,
can
cause
the
financial
system
to
break
down.



The
policy
issues
are
therefore
as
follows:

‐ Should
the
current
“no
regulation”
status
of
OTC
derivatives
be
changed?


‐ Given
the
potential
systemic
risk
of
credit
derivatives,
in
particular
CDSs,
what
arrangements

(regulations)
should
be
considered?

‐ Given
the
opaque
nature
of
these
markets,
what
reporting
requirements
should
be
in
place?




Policy
Recommendations


1. Since
they
have
the
same
economic
value,
there
is
no
reason
why
regulation
of
OTC
derivatives

should
 not
 be
 of
 a
 similar
 nature
 to
 those
 traded
 on
 an
 exchange.
 One‐off
 OTC
 transactions

could
be
exempted.
Jurisdictional
issues
need
to
be
resolved.

2. OTC
 markets
 that
 grow
 “sufficiently
 large”
 should
 be
 migrated
 to
 either
 Clearing
 House
 or

Exchange
 market
 structures
 –
 the
 CDS
 market
 being
 one
 prime
 candidate.
 Note
 that
 the
 main

reason
for
systemic
risk
in

OTC
markets
is
that
bilaterally
set
collateral
and
margin
requirements

in
OTC
trading
do
not
take
account
of
the
counterparty
risk
externality
that
each
trade
imposes

on
 the
 rest
 of
 the
 system,
 allowing
 systemically
 important
 exposures
 to
 be
 built
 up
 without

sufficient
 capital
 to
 mitigate
 associated
 risks.
 
 With
 appropriate
 collateral
 and
 margin

requirements,
 the
 Clearing
 House
 or
 Exchange
 structures
 could
 have
 little
 to
 no
 counterparty

credit
risk.

3. To
increase
transparency
throughout
the
system,
trade‐level
information
for
some
OTC
markets,

in
 particular
 CDS’s,
 on
 volume
 and
 prices
 seems
 a
 reasonable
 requirement.
 There
 would
 be
 no

need
 to
 reveal
 who
 is
 trading
 or
 the
 amount
 traded
 above
 a
 certain
 level.
 This
 is
 a
 feature
 of

most
 markets
 and
 is
 now
 a
 feature
 of
 the
 corporate
 bond
 market
 which
 was
 hitherto
 entirely

OTC
 but
 now
 has
 trade‐level
 disclosure
 to
 TRACE.
 The
 TRACE
 system
 is
 a
 good
 model
 and
 has

been
quite
successful.








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2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

27


Chapter
11:
Executive
Summary

Centralized
Clearing
for
Credit

Derivatives

vltol v. Acbotvo. kobett £oole. 5tepbeo llol ewskl. Aotboov lvocb. Mottl
5obtobmoovom
Background

Credit
 derivatives,
 mainly
 Credit
 Default
 Swaps
 (CDS)
 and
 Collateralized
 Debt
 Obligations
 (CDOs),
 have
 been

under
 great
 stress
 during
 the
 sub‐prime
 financial
 crisis
 and
 have
 contributed
 significantly
 to
 its
 severity.
 
 In

large
part
 this
is
because
 these
relatively
new
products
 are
 traded
in
bilateral
 transactions
over‐the‐counter

(OTC),
 unlike
 other
 major
 financial
 derivatives
 that
 are
 traded
 on
 exchanges.
 
 OTC
 contracts
 can
 be
 more

flexible
 than
 standardized
 exchange‐traded
 derivatives,
 but
 they
 suffer
 from
 greater
 counterparty
 and

operational
risks,
as
well
as
less
transparency.



The
Issues


1. 1ransparency
The
market
for
CDS
provides
a
clear
example
of
how
lack
of
transparency
makes
risk
assessment

difficult.
Following
the
bankruptcy
of
Lehman
Brothers,
about
$400
billion
of
CDS
were
presented
for

settlement,
but
once
all
the
offsetting
bilateral
trades—invisible
to
the
outsider—were
netted
out,

only
about
$6
billion
ultimately
changed
hands.

Evaluating
and
managing
counterparty
credit
risk
for

CDS
is
a
big
problem
with
systemic
implications.

In
March
2008,
the
Fed
and
the
Treasury

orchestrated
a
bailout
of
Bear
Stearns
because
it
was
"too
interconnected"
to
other
financial
firms

through
its
extensive
and
complex
network
of
bilateral
OTC
contracts
to
be
allowed
to
fail.

The

serious
consequences
of
letting
a
systemically
important
firm
fail
became
all
too
apparent
when

Lehman
Brothers
had
to
file
for
bankruptcy
and
the
credit
markets
responded
by
freezing
up.

2. Counterparty k|sk

CDS
and
other
OTC
contracts
deal
with
counterparty
credit
risk
by
setting
(privately
negotiated)

collateral
requirements
for
both
parties
to
the
deal.

But
the
terms
are
not
standardized
and
no

account
is
taken
of
the
risk
externality
by
which
credit
enhancement
for
one
deal
affects
the
risk

exposures
of
other
market
participants.

The
shortcomings
of
this
arrangement,
including
the
fact

that
the
OTC
environment
offers
almost
no
transparency
regarding
the
counterparties'
overall
risk

exposure,
became
clear
in
the
case
of
AIG,
which
had
accumulated
a
huge
exposure
to
CDS,
and
had

to
be
bailed
out
after
a
credit
rating
downgrade
precipitated
collateral
calls
that
it
could
not
meet.

Three
Levels
of
Centralized
Clearing

We
 feel
 that
 when
 an
 OTC
 derivatives
 market
 becomes
 large
 and
 important
 enough
 to
 have
 a
 significant

impact
on
the
overall
financial
system
it
needs
to
have
centralized
clearing
in
order
to
aggregate
information

on
 outstanding
 deals
 and
 risk
 exposures
 for
 the
 benefit
 of
 regulatory
 authorities
 and
 other
 market

participants.
 
 Three
 different
 types
 of
 central
 clearing
 offer
 different
 levels
 of
 market
 integration
 and

transparency.



©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

28

1. Dea|s keg|stry

The
most
basic
arrangement
would
be
a
Registry
of
deals
in
which
counterparties
report
on
trades

they
have
set
up
bilaterally.

A
Registry
could
provide
efficiency
gains
by
both
holding
collateral
for

the
counterparties
and
facilitating
the
transfers
of
funds
among
institutions.



2. C|ear|ng nouse as Centra| Counterparty

A
much
stronger
form
of
Clearing
House
would
take
on
the
role
of
counterparty
and
guarantor
of
all

contracts,
as
does
the
clearinghouse
for
a
futures
or
options
exchange.

Deals
would
still
be
set
up
in

bilateral
negotiation,
but
once
registered
with
the
Clearing
House,
the
CDS
would
be
broken
into
two

separate
contracts
with
the
Clearing
House
in
the
middle.

This
kind
of
clearing
facility
would
greatly

reduce
counterparty
risk
in
the
market,
as
long
as
it
was
adequately
protected
against
default.

An

important
element
of
that
protection
is
that
the
Clearing
House
would
set
standardized
margin

requirements
on
all
deals.

This
facility
also
has
the
valuable
feature
that
it
allows
a
firm
to

completely
unwind
a
trade
before
maturity,
because
identical
offsetting
contracts
made
with

different
counterparties
would
cancel
each
other
out
when
the
Clearing
House
took
the
other
side.


We
favor
this
form
of
centralized
clearing
over
a
pure
OTC
market
structure
or
a
registry
for
CDS
and

most
other
significant
derivatives.

3. Der|vat|ves Lxchange


The
most
centralized
form
of
market
organization
would
be
for
trading
to
move
to
a
formal

exchange.
An
exchange
offers
the
advantages
of
highly
visible
prices
and
volumes,
broad
market

participation
including
retail
traders,
and
elimination
of
counterparty
risk
through
standardized

margins
and
a
contract
guarantee
supported
by
the
capital
of
both
a
clearinghouse
and
independent

market
makers.

One
significant
inconvenience
of
exchange
trading
is
that
contracts
need
to
be

standardized
to
permit
large
amount
of
trading
in
the
same
instrument.

This
would
not
be
a
big

problem
for
CDS’s,
which
are
already
quite
standardized,
but
would
be
difficult
for
more

individualized
instruments,
like
CDO
tranches.

A
second
problem
is
that
setting
up
and
running
an

exchange
is
costly,
so
it
is
not
suitable
for
thinly
traded
instruments.

Policy
Recommendations

1. A
firm
trading
credit
derivative
contracts
over‐the‐counter
should
be
required
to
provide

information
to
a
central
Registry
on
each
deal
they
enter
into.

Information
gathered
in
this
way

should
be
available
to
regulators
and,
potentially,
to
the
public
in
a
form
that
balances
the
need

for
counterparties
to
be
able
to
evaluate
each
other's
risk
exposures
against
firms'
proper

concerns
for
keeping
the
details
of
their
trading
strategies
confidential.

2. When
 trading
 activity
 in
 a
 particular
 derivative
 expands
 to
 the
 point
 that
 the
 contract
 becomes

systemically
significant,
it
should
move
to
centralized
clearing
with
a
clearinghouse
that
assumes

the
 role
 of
 counterparty
 and
 guarantees
 every
 trade.
 
 This
 would
 greatly
 reduce
 counterparty

risk
and
further
improve
market
transparency,
in
addition
to
offering
substantial
efficiency
gains

in
trading.

3. Moving
 trading
 to
 a
 formal
 exchange
 may
 be
 appropriate
 for
 some
 actively
 traded
 and
 largely

standardized
derivative
instruments,
but
the
major
gains
from
establishing
a
centralized
clearing

facility
 are
 obtained
 once
 there
 is
 a
 clearinghouse
 that
 assumes
 the
 role
 of
 counterparty
 and

guarantees
 every
 trade.
 
 
 We
 therefore
 feel
 that
 the
 strongest
 public
 policy
 need
 in
 the
 area
 of

OTC
derivatives
is
to
require
centralized
clearing
for
all
systemically
important
derivatives.



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29


Chapter
12:
Executive
Summary

Short
Selling

Meoocbem 8teooet ooJ Mottl C. 5obtobmoovom
Background

Until
 the
 current
 global
 financial
 crisis,
 the
 practice
 of
 selling
 shares
 that
 one
 did
 not
 own,
 known
 as

short‐selling,
was
generally
permitted
in
most
countries.

Of
course,
there
were
some
restrictions
placed

on
such
transactions,
such
as
the
requirement
to
borrow
the
stock
ptlot to
the
sale
("no
naked
shorts"),

selling
 at
 a
 higher
 price
 than
 the
 previous
 trade
 ("the
 uptick
 rule")
 and
 disallowing
 short‐selling
 to

capture
gains
and
postpone
tax
payments
("no
shorting
against
the
box").

In
 a
 dramatic
 decision
 in
 the
 early
 weeks
 of
 the
 current
 crisis,
 the
 SEC
 banned
 short‐sales
 of
 shares
 of

799
 companies
 on
 September
 18,
 and
 subsequently
 lifted
 the
 ban
 on
 October
 8,
 this
 year.
 However,

most
 countries
 around
 the
 globe,
 and
 in
 particular,
 the
 U.K.
 and
 Japan,
 homes
 to
 the
 two
 other
 major

world
financial
centers,
London
and
Tokyo,
have
declared
a
ban
on
short
selling
for
“as
long
as
it
takes”

to
stabilize
the
markets.

Even
in
the
U.S.,
there
is
continuing
pressure
on
the
regulators
to
reinstate
the

ban,
at
least
in
selected
securities
or
to
bring
back
the
“up‐tick”
rule.

The
Issues

The
immediate
policy
issues
are
as
follows:
1. Should
 there
 be
 any
 restrictions
 on
 short
 selling
 equity
 shares
 of
 individual
 companies,
 if
 not
 a

total
ban
on
such
transactions?

2. If
so,
what
specific
restrictions
should
be
 instituted,
and
under
 what
circumstances
should
they

be
enforced
by
the
regulators?
In
particular,
should
the
“up‐tick”
rule
be
reinstated?

3. What
 is
 the
 appropriate
 framework
 for
 timely
 reporting
 of
 short
 interest
 and/or
 short
 sales
 to

ensure
transparency
of
these
transactions
to
the
market?

Financial
Markets:
Fairness
and
Efficiency

A
highly
desirable
feature
of
financial
 markets
 is
that
 they
be
fair
to
all
participants
who
 wish
 to
 trade.

An
 aspect
 of
 this
 fairness
 is
 that
 these
 markets
 operate
 in
 a
 transparent
 manner,
 making
 available

information
 to
 all
 participants
 at
 the
 same
 time,
 so
 that
 the
 markets
 can
 be
 efficient.
 In
 efficient

financial
 markets,
 the
 prices
 of
 financial
 assets
 reflect
 all
 available
 information
 ‐
 favorable
 and

unfavorable
 ‐
 that
 may
 affect
 the
 magnitude
 and
 the
 risk
 of
 future
 cash
 flows
 from
 these
 assets.
 An

important
tenet
of
fair
regulation
and
taxation
of
financial
markets
is
the
symmetric
treatment
of
buyers

and
 sellers
 of
 financial
 assets.
 This
 is
 because
 the
 combined
 actions
 of
 buyers
 and
 sellers,
 reacting
 to

new
information,
cause
that
information
to
be
reflected
in
market
prices.
This
 process
is
referred
to
as

price
 discovery.
 Restrictions
 on
 short
 selling
 constrain
 the
 participation
 of
 potential
 sellers,
 who
 may

have
 bearish
 views
 on
 a
 stock.
 Equally,
 they
 also
 affect
 buyers
 who
 want
 to
 be
 long
 on
 a
 particular

company’s
 securities,
 but
 limit
 their
 risk
 exposure.
 For
 example,
 buyers
 of
 convertible
 bonds
 or
 stocks

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

30

who
buy
put
options
to
limit
their
downside
losses
will
find
it
difficult
to
buy
them
from
sellers,
since
the

latter
use
shorting
to
hedge
their
own
exposure.
Thus,
restrictions
on
short
selling
reduce
transactions
in

the
stock
market,
which
in
turn,
delays
price
discovery,
curtails
liquidity
and
causes
prices
to
fall
further.

They
 also
 increase
 liquidity
 risk
 if
 the
 volume
 of
 these
 future
 transactions
 is
 uncertain.
 Thus,
 a
 ban
 on

short
 sales
 would
 generally
 have
 adverse
 consequences
 for
 liquidity
 as
 well
 as
 liquidity
 risk
 in
 a
 given

stock
and
its
derivatives.


At
 a
 broader
 level,
 the
 wealth
 of
 available
 empirical
 evidence
 in
 the
 academic
 literature
 as
 well
 as

accumulated
 regulatory
 experience,
 suggests
 that
 restrictions
 on
 short‐sales
 are
 largely
 ineffective
 in

halting
 declines
 of
 stock.
 All
 they
 do
 is
 throw
 some
 sand
 in
 the
 gears
 and
 delay
 the
 inevitable

incorporation
of
bad
news
into
stock
prices.
It
has
been
shown
that
in
countries
with
fewer
short‐selling

constraints,
there
is
more
efficient
price
discovery,
less
co‐movement
of
stocks,
and
lower
volatility
than

in
those
where
short‐selling
is
more
restricted.
Most
importantly,
no
study
has
shown
that
short‐selling

constraints
 reduce
 the
 likelihood
 of
 crashes.
 Similar
 conclusions
 have
 been
 reached
 regarding
 the

“uptick”
 rule
 which
 prohibits
 short
 sales,
 except
 when
 prices
 move
 up.
 
 In
 particular,
 a
 recent
 study

commissioned
by
the
SEC,
which
showed
the
“uptick”
rule
to
be
ineffective
influenced
the
SEC
to
rescind

the
rule
last
July.

Policy
Recommendations

1. 5hort 5e|||ng shou|d never be banned.
 In
 cases
 where
 there
 is
 strong
 evidence
 of
 market

manipulation,
 a
 trading
 halt
 should
 be
 considered,
 since
 such
 manipulation
 may
 affect
 both

buyers
and
sellers.

2. No "Naked 5horts."
Regulators
should
also
strictly
enforce
the
requirement
that
stocks
must
be

borrowed
ptlot to a
short
sale
by any |nvestor who |s not a market maker.
3. The "up-t|ck" rule
should !"#
be
reinstated.
It
does
not
reduce
volatility;
it
only
slows
down
the

price
discovery
process.
4. keport|ng kequ|rements. Transparency
in
the
form
of
tlmelv reporting
is
a
precondition for

efficient
financial
markets.
We
propose
that
daily
short
selling
trading
activity,
and
not
just
short

interest
reported
with
a
lag,
on
all
listed
stocks,
be
transmitted
online
to
the
exchange/clearing

corporation.
Every
short
sale
that
appears
on
the
sales
and
trade
ticker
should
be
marked
as

such.
(Of
course,
the
identity
of
the
seller
would
not
be
disclosed
to
the
public.)







Back
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of
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2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

31


Chapter
13:
Executive
Summary

Regulating
Systemic
Risk

vltol v. Acbotvo. losse leJetseo. 1bomos lbll lppoo ooJ Mottbew klcbotJsoo
Background

Systemic
 risk
 is
 the
 risk
 that
 the
 failure
 and
 distress
 of
 a
 significant
 part
 of
 the
 financial
 sector
 reduces

the
 availability
 of
 credit
 which
 in
 turn
 may
 adversely
 affect
 the
 real
 economy.
 Not
 all
 economic

downturns
involve
systemic
risk,
but
the
 occurrence
 of
systemic
risk
has
almost
invariably
transformed

economic
downturns
into
deep
recessions
or
even
depressions.

Such
systemic
risk
has
been
ubiquitous

in
 the
 current
 crisis.
 It
 has
 manifested
 itself
 in
 the
 moral
 hazard
 encouraged
 by
 “too‐big‐to‐fail”

guarantees,
 in
 the
 externalities
 created
 by
 deleveraging,
 fire‐sales,
 hidden
 counter‐party
 risk
 and

liquidity
shortages,
and
in
the
aggregate
decline
in
home
prices.



1he Issues
This
systemic
risk
has
raised
important
policy
issues:


1. Will
 market
 forces
 left
 to
 their
 own
 devices
 ensure
 an
 efficient
 level
 of
 systemic
 risk
 in
 the

economy?

Or
is
regulation
warranted?

2. If
 regulation
 of
 systemic
 risk
 is
 desirable,
 what
 form
 should
 it
 take?
 
 Indeed,
 how
 should

systemic
risk
be
measured
or
quantified
in
the
first
place?


We
argue
that
the
“laissez‐faire”
amount
of
systemic
 risk
in
an
 economy
 will
likely
be
 inefficiently
high

because
systemic
risk
involves
externalities.
That
is,
each
institution
manages
its
own
risks
but
does
not

consider
 its
 impact
 on
 the
 risk
 of
 the
 system
 as
 a
 whole.
 We
 draw
 the
 analogy
 of
 a
 firm
 that
 creates

environmental
 pollution.
 
 Such
 a
 firm
 is
 often
 regulated
 to
 limit
 the
 pollution
 or
 taxed
 based
 on
 the

externality
it
causes.
Regulation
is
therefore
needed.
Unfortunately,
current
financial
sector
regulations

do
not
address
the
problem
because
they
seek
to
limit
each
 institution’s
risk
seen
in
isolation;
 they
are

not
 sufficiently
 focused
 on
 systemic
 risk.
 As
 a
 result,
 while
 the
 risks
 of
 an
 individual
 firm
 are
 properly

dealt
with
in
normal
times,
the
system
itself
remains,
or
is
induced
to
be,
fragile
and
vulnerable
to
large

macroeconomic
shocks.

Policy
Recommendations

Hence,
we
advocate
that
financial
regulation
be
focused
on
limiting
systemic
risk,
and
we
propose
a
new

set
of
regulations
to
achieve
this
goal.


1. There
should
be
one
regulator
(say,
the
Federal
Reserve)
in
charge
of
systemic
risk.


2. The
regulator
would
first
assess
the
systemic
risk
posed
by
each
firm.
The
assessment
would
be

based
 on
 individual
 characteristics
 (leverage,
 asset
 quality),
 on
 measures
 of
 complexity
 and

connectedness
(that
define
large,
complex
financial
institutions),
and
on
statistical
measures.


©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

32

a. In
particular,
 we
propose
 estimating
the
 contribution
 of
each
firm
 to
the
downside
risk

of
 the
 economy
 using
 the
 standard
 risk
 management
 tools
 routinely
 employed
 within

financial
firms
to
manage
firm‐level
risk,
but
applied
at
the
macroeconomic
level.
These

include
 value‐at‐risk,
 expected
 loss,
 stress
 tests,
 and
 macroeconomic
 scenario
 analysis.

These
tools
would
allow
the
regulator
to
detect
the
systemic
risk
of
one
institution
or
of

a
group
of
institutions.

3. The
overall
systemic
risk
assessments
should
then
determine
the
regulatory
constraints
imposed

on
 the
 firms.
 In
 particular,
 each
 firm
 would
 pay
 for
 its
 owo systemic
 risk
 contribution.
 This

charge
 could
 take
 the
 form
 of
 capital
 requirements,
 taxes,
 and
 required
 purchase
 of
 insurance

against
aggregate
risk.


a. Capital
requirements
 would
introduce
a
charge
for
a
firm’s
assets
based
on
its
systemic

risk
contribution.
This
would
be
a
“Basel
III”
approach;
or,


b. Taxes
could
be
 levied
based
on
systemic
risk
contribution
of
firms
and
 used
 to
create
a

systemic
 fund.
 This
 would
 be
 a
 FDIC‐style
 approach
 but
 at
 a
 systemic
 level.
 It
 would

have
 the
 added
 benefit
 of
 reducing
 the
 incentives
 for
 financial
 institutions
 to
 become

too
big
to
fail;
or,


c. Systemic
 firms
 could
 be
 required
 to
 buy
 insurance
 –
 partly
 from
 the
 private
 sector
 –

against
 their
own
 losses
in
a
scenario
 in
 which
there
 is
aggregate
economic
or
financial

sector
 stress.
 To
 reduce
 moral
 hazard,
 the
 payouts
 on
 the
 insurance
 would
 go
 to
 a

government
“bailout”
fund
and
not
directly
into
the
coffers
of
the
firm.
This
would
allow

for
 price
 discovery
 by
 the
 private
 sector,
 enable
 the
 regulator
 to
 provide
 remaining

insurance
 at
 a
 price
 linked
 to
 the
 price
 charged
 by
 the
 private
 sector,
 and
 lessen
 the

regulatory
 burden
 to
 calculate
 the
 relative
 price
 of
 systemic
 risk
 for
 different
 financial

firms.

In
 all
 cases,
 our
 proposed
 regulations
 would
 focus
 regulatory
 attention
 on
 systemic
 risk,
 provide

incentives
 for
 regulated
 firms
 to
 limit
 systemic
 risk
 taking,
 reduce
 moral
 hazard,
 reduce
 the
 pro‐
cyclicality
of
risk
taking,
and,
use
tools
tested
and
well
understood
by
the
private
sector,
potentially
also

providing
market‐based
estimates
of
the
price
of
systemic
risk.










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2008
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York
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of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

33


Chapter
14:
Executive
Summary

Private
Lessons
for
Public
Banking:
The

Case
for
Conditionality
in
LOLR
Facilities

vltol v. Acbotvo ooJ uovlJ 8ockos
Background

As
we
work
our
way
through
the
current
financial
crisis,
central
banks
have
shifted
their
attention
from

managing
short‐term
interest
rates
to
providing
liquidity
to
the
financial
system.

In
the
US,
for
example,

the
 Federal
 Reserve's
 balance
 sheet
 has
 expanded
 rapidly,
 as
 it
 offered
 funds
 to
 banks
 and
 accepted

securities
in
return:
from
under
a
 trillion
dollars
in
August
 2007
to
 over
 two
trillion
 in
 November
2008,

expanding
 primarily
 through
 its
 lending
 to
 banks
 against
 illiquid
 collateral.
 
This
 "lender
 of
 last
 resort"

(LOLR)
 role
 is
 neither
 new
 nor
 unusual,
 but
 its
 massive
 scale
 suggests
 that
 it
 is
 worth
 some
 thought
 to

get
 the
 details
 right.
 
We
 make
 below
 what
 may
 seem
 right
 now
 to
 be
 a
 perverse
 argument:
 
ceottol
books coo leoto sometbloo ftom tbe ptlvote sectot oboot bow to mooooe lts ptovlsloo of lloolJltv.



The
Issues

Let
us
start
from
the
beginning.

Walter
Bagehot
codified
the
nineteenth
century's
collective
wisdom
on

central
bank
provision
of
liquidity
 in
Chapter
VII
of
lombotJ 5tteet
(1873).

In
 many
respects,
the
same

principles
guide
modern
central
banks.

It
involves
the
following
elements:

(i)
Central
banks
should
hold

large
reserves;
(ii)
In
times
of
panic,
the
central
bank
should
freely
advance
these
reserves
to
any
private

bank
able
to
offer
"what
in
ordinary
times
is
reckoned
a
good
security"
as
collateral;
(iii)
These
advances

should
 be
 charged
 a
 penalty
 rate
 to
 discourage
 applications
 from
 banks
 that
 do
 not
 need
 it.
 
(Bagehot

seemed
concerned
primarily
 with
the
practical
goal
of
conserving
limited
reserves);
and,
(iv)
This
policy

of
using
reserves
to
stem
panics
should
be
clearly
communicated.

Otherwise,
uncertainty
about
central

bank
actions
can
themselves
contribute
to
the
panic.



These
 guidelines
 remain
 insightful
 but
 we
 think
 they
 miss
 an
 important
 aspect
 of
 financial
 crises:
 
|t |s
not easy to te|| the d|fference between an ||||qu|d and an |nso|vent |nst|tut|on.

In
fact,
that
is
usually

what
 precipitates
 matters:
 
no
 one
 is
 sure
 who
 is
 solvent.
 
In
 those
 circumstances,
 a
 central
 bank
 can

easily
 find
 itself
 lending
 to
 an
 insolvent
 institution,
 perhaps
 creating
 an
 unnecessary
 delay
 in
 its
 timely

reorganization
and
recapitalization.



Consider
 an
 undercapitalized
 and
 possibly
 insolvent
 bank:
 
call
 it
 Lehman
 Brothers
 if
 you
 like.
 
If
 it
 can

borrow
from
the
central
bank,
it
faces
less
pressure
to
raise
more
capital
privately
to
solve
its
underlying

problem.
 
It
 has
 been
 a
 shocking
 revelation
 to
 many
 that
 the
 total
 capital
 raised
 (public
 and
 private)
 is

remarkably
 small
 when
 compared
 to
 the
 total
 losses
 incurred
 by
 financial
 institutions
 worldwide

(including
 banks,
 broker‐dealers,
 insurers
 and
 GSEs)
 from
 3Q
 2007
 to
 date.
 Excluding
 4Q
 2008
 which

features
 large‐scale
 capital
 infusions
 from
 governments
 into
 the
 financial
 sector,
 financial
 institutions

simply
did
not
raise
 enough
capital,
in
fact,
not
 even
 enough
to
cover
their
losses.

 What
 is
more,
 even

firms
in
difficulty
such
as
Lehman
Brothers
and
Citigroup
were
paying
significant
cash
dividends
–
that
is

taking
capital
oot of
their
balance‐sheets
–
until
they
failed
or
were
bailed
out.

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

34

• Could
 the
 central
 banks
 while
 providing
 liquidity
 to
 these
 institutions
 
 (many
 unhealthy
 at
 that

such
as
the
GSEs,
Washington
Mutual,
Wachovia,
Lehman
Brothers,
and
so
on)
ensure
that
they

restructured
–
by
reducing
leverage
and
risk
or
converting
debt
to
equity
–
or
recapitalized
–
by

issuing
preferred
or
equity
capital
in
markets?



We
believe
the
answer
is
yes,
provided
the
liquidity
facilities
created
by
central
banks
granted
them
the

rights
to
deny
liquidity
conditional
on
bank
health
and
characteristics.
Such
rights
are
indeed
available
to

private
providers
of
liquidity
insurance
–
namely,
the
banks
–
when
they
allow
borrowers
to
pre‐arrange

such
liquidity
facilities
from
them.

The
private
lines
of
credit
(LCs)
serve
a
similar
purpose
for
borrowers

as
central
banks’
LOLR
facilities
do
for
banks:

they
represent
contracts
pre‐arranged
by
firms
with
banks

for
banks
to
give
them
liquidity
when
firms
need
it.

Indeed,
LCs
often
constitute
the
borrower’s
last
line

of
 defense
 against
 an
 economy‐wide
 shortage
 of
 credit,
 as
 in
 the
 current
 crisis.
 The
 tradeoffs
 involved

are
also
the
same
–
providing
liquidity
to
avoid
deadweight
costs
of
liquidation
of
a
sound
enterprise
but

weighing
that
against
the
fact
that
insurance
 will
reduce
the
discipline
on
 the
 enterprise
to
avoid
being

in
such
a
situation
in
the
first
place.

How
does
the
structure
of
private
insurance
deal
with
this
tradeoff?


Private
lines
of
credit
have
the
borrower
pay
a
the
commitment
fee
and
interest
rate
once
the
lines
are

drawn
 that
 are
 both
 tied
 to
 the
 firm's
 credit
 rating,
 which
 allows
 the
 lender
 to
 respond
 to
 changes
 in

credit
quality.

More
importantly,
they
include
covenants
(cash‐flow
based,
for
example)
and
a
"material

adverse
change"
(MAC)
clause
that
give
the
lender
the
ability
to
refuse
the
loan
if
the
conditions
of
the

borrower
have
changed.

These
terms,
and
their
enforcement
observed
in
practice,
suggest
that
lines
of

credit
are
private
solutions
to
liquidity
issues,
oot solveocv lssoes.

In
some
respects,
central
banks’
LOLR

facilities
 resemble
 private
 lines
 of
 credit.
 
Prices
 aren't
 tied
 to
 credit
 rating,
 but
 central
 bank
 lending
 is

secured
against
 collateral,
albeit
 illiquid.

What's
 missing,
however,
is
anything
resembling
the
material

adverse
 change
 clause.
 
There's
 nothing,
 in
 other
 words,
 to
 keep
 an
 undercapitalized
 bank
 from
 using

such
a
facility.
This,
we
view,
as
a
serious
limitation
in
structure
of
these
facilities.



Policy
Recommendations

Our
main
recommendation
is
thus
that
just
like
private
lines
of
credit,
central
banks’
liquidity

facilities
should
be
cooJltloool.

In
particular,
central
banks
should
ascertain
while
providing
liquidity
to

an
institution
that
they
are
indeed
lending
to
sound
institutions.

A
straightforward
way
to
achieve
this
objective
is
to
require
in
the
LOLR
facilities
that
eligible
institutions

and
 firms
 can
 borrow
 from
 the
 central
 bank
 against
 eligible
 collateral
 oolv lf tbev meet pte-speclfleJ
teooltemeots. fot exomple. moxlmom levetooe ooJ mlolmom copltol totlos.
 
 Such
 conditionality
 would

incentivize
weak
banks
to
recapitalize
when
their
losses
mount
so
as
to
have
access
to
the
LOLR
facilities

and
 thereby
 limit
 moral
 hazard.
 Conversely,
 in
 absence
 of
 such
 conditionality,
 weak
 banks
 may
 access

liquidity
 facilities
 and
 simply
 play
 the
 waiting
 game
 –
 a
 way
 for
 management
 to
 avoid
 being
 diluted
 by

fresh
 capital
 issuance
 and
 thereby
 risk
 being
 even
 more
 insolvent
 if
 things
 do
 not
 improve.
 
 As
 the

Federal
Reserve
expands
its
liquidity
operations
to
a
wider
set
of
institutions
and
firms
in
the
economy,

the
role
for
such
conditionality
in
its
liquidity
facilities
seems
imperative.



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35


Chapter
15:
Executive
Summary

The
Financial
Sector
“Bailout”:
Sowing

the
Seeds
of
the
Next
Crisis?

vltol v. Acbotvo. kooootojoo 5ooJotom
Background

The
two‐month
period
from
September
to
November
2008
has
been
witness
to
the
most
extraordinary

level
of
direct
US
governmental
involvement
in
financial
markets
in
over
seven
decades.
In
part,
this

intervention
took
on
the
form
of
oJ-boc
institution‐specific
rescue
packages
such
as
those
applied
to

Bear
Stearns,
Fannie
Mae,
Freddie
Mac,
AIG,
and
Citigroup.
But
a
substantial
part
of
the
effort
and
huge

sums
of
money
have
also
been
committed
in
an
attempt
to
address
the
systemic
problems
which
led
to

the
freezing
of
credit
markets.
A
multi‐pronged
approach
has
finally
emerged
with
three
key
schemes:


1. A
 loan‐guarantee
 scheme
 administered
 by
 the
 Federal
 Deposit
 Insurance
 Corporation
 (FDIC)

under
which
the
FDIC
guarantees
newly‐issued
senior
unsecured
debt
of
banks
out
to
a
maturity

of
three
years.


2. A
bank
recapitalization
scheme
undertaken
by
the
US
Treasury
in
which
the
Treasury
purchases

preferred
equity
stakes
in
banks.

3. A
commercial
paper
funding
facility
(CPFF)
operated
by
the
Federal
Reserve.

The
Issues

The
sheer
magnitude
of
this
intervention
has
raised
two
central
questions
of
interest:

1. At
 what
 prices
 are
 these
 schemes
 being
 offered?
 Are
 the
 terms
 fair
 from
 the
 taxpayer

standpoint?
Are
the
terms
fair
to
healthy
banks
and
financial
institutions?

2. And,
 equally
 importantly,
 will
 the
 bailout
 achieve
 its
 intended
 purpose
 of
 assuaging

counterparty
risk
concerns
(which
have
arisen
because
the
market
does
not
 know
which
banks

are
healthy
and
which
are
not)
and
thawing
the
freeze
in
credit
markets
at
large?


Our
 analysis
 of
 the
 salient
 features
 of
 each
 of
 these
 programs,
 their
 possible
 economic
 consequences,

and
 where
 relevant,
 comparisons
 with
 similar
 efforts
 undertaken
 in
 other
 countries,
 notably
 the
 UK,

have
led
us
to
conclude
that:

1. By
adopting
a
one‐size‐fits‐all
pricing
scheme
that
is
set
at
too
low
a
level
relative
to
the
market,

the
 US
 loan‐guarantee
 scheme
 represents
 a
 transfer
 of
 between
 $13
 billion
 and
 $70
 billion
 of

taxpayer
 wealth
 to
 the
 banks.
 In
 contrast,
 the
 UK
 scheme,
 which
 uses
 a
 market‐based
 fee

structure,
appears
to
price
the
guarantee
fairly.


2. 
By
 offering
 very
 little
 in
 terms
 of
 optionality
 in
 participation,
 the
 US
 loan
 guarantee
 scheme
 is

effectively
forced
on
all
banks,
giving
rise
to
a
pooling
outcome.
The
UK
scheme,
in
comparison,

provides
 considerable
 optionality
 in
 participation,
 which,
 combined
 with
 its
 pricing
 structure,

has
 induced
 a
 separating
 equilibrium
 where
 healthy
 banks
 have
 not
 availed
 of
 government

guarantees
but
weaker
banks
have.

Implicitly,
the
US
scheme
encourages
a
system
where
banks

are
 likely
 to
 remain
 (and
 to
 want
 to
 remain)
 on
 government
 guarantees
 until
 the
 crisis
 abates,

whereas
the
UK
scheme
has
paved
the
way
for
a
smooth
transition
to
market‐based
outcomes.


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2008
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York
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of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

36

3. The
 US
 recapitalization
 scheme
 has
 also
 provided
 little
 in
 terms
 of
 participation
 optionality
 for

the
 large
 banks,
 but
 it
 too
 is
 otherwise
 generous
 to
 the
 banks
 in
 that
 it
 imposes
 little
 direct

discipline
in
the
form
of
replacement
of
top
management
or
curbs
on
executive
pay,
and
secures

no
 voting
 rights
 for
 the
 government.
 The
 UK
 scheme
 allows
 for
 optionality
 in
 accepting

government
 funds,
 and
 is
 associated
 with
 government
 voting
 rights,
 replacement
 of

management
in
some
cases,
and
significant
curbs
on
dividend
and
executive
pay.

4. By
requiring
a
threshold
credit
quality
and
using
a
wider
spread,
the
US
commercial
paper


funding
facility
appears
to
be
 more
fairly
priced
than
 the
loan‐guarantee
scheme,
and
does
not

appear
to
represent
a
net
cost
to
taxpayers.



Overall,
the
UK
bailout
plan
appears
much
better
grounded
in
sound
economic
principles.

While

bailouts
are
unavoidable
under
extreme
economic
stress,
they
ought
to
be
designed
and
priced
correctly

even
in
such
times
of
crisis.



Policy
Recommendations
What
follows
are
some
simple
rules
for
regulators
to
follow:

1. Do
not
employ
a
one‐size‐fits‐all
approach
in
pricing;
this
makes
it
harder
to
separate
good
and

bad
banks,
and
ultimately
to
move
back
to
a
market‐based
system.
As
corollaries
to
this
overall

principle:

2. Rely
on
market
prices
wherever
available;


3. Reward
more
those
institutions
that
did
well
relative
to
those
that
did
not;
and


4. Review
incentive
systems
within
banks
that
led
to
the
crisis
in
the
first
place.


By
and
 large,
adherence
to
these
principles
 would
reduce
any
unintended
consequences
(due
 to
 moral

hazard)
 and
 ensure
 that
 the
 outcomes
 from
 the
 bailout
 represent
 a
 rescue
 of
 the
 system
 but
 still
 in
 a

manner
that
accrues
no
undue
advantage
to
a
small
set
of
institutions.

When
bailouts
are
organized
in

such
fashion,
market
participants
are
still
disciplined
ex
ante
by
the
prospect
of
relative
gains
and
losses.

A
 final
 issue
 that
 arises
 is
 what
 the
 regulators
 have
 planned
 in
 terms
 of
 exit
 from
 the
 guarantees
 and

recapitalization
 programs.
 The
 US
 regulators
 have
 not
 priced
 the
 guarantees
 right,
 and
 they
 have

offered
them
for
as
long
as
three
years.

Have
they,
as
a
result,


raised
the
possibility
of
substitution
by

banks
 into
 inefficient
 assets
 (for
 example,
 by
 undertaking
 acquisitions
 that
 are
 profitable
 oolv with
 the

guarantee)?
The
typically
sticky
nature
of
regulatory
responses
during
past
crises
makes
planned
exit
an

important
issue
for
regulators
 to
ponder,
 lest
we
sow
the
seeds
of
the
next
crisis.

 When
the
 economic

outlook
improves,
we
do
not
want
to
see
abundant
liquidity
at
artificially
low
prices
(due
to
guarantees)

because
 it
 creates
 the
 possibility
 that
 the
 sequence
 of
 events
 we
 have
 just
 witnessing—excessive


leverage,
inefficient
allocations,
asset
price
bubbles
and
finally,
a
crash—may
recur.






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37


Chapter
16:

Mortgages
and
Households

Andrew
Caplin
and
Thomas
Cooley

I. Background


The
 damage
 caused
 by
 the
 collapse
 of
 the
 housing
 and
 housing
 finance
 sectors
 of
 the
 economy
 is

spreading
at
an
alarming
rate.
Foreclosure
activity
jumped
81
percent
in
2008,
with
more
than
3
million

foreclosure
filings
 on
2.3
 million
properties.
The
 ever
 increasing
number
of
households
 who
are
upside

down
on
their
mortgages
poses
a
growing
threat
to
the
financial
system
and
the
economy
as
the
actual

losses,
 and
 the
 uncertainty
 about
 their
 extent,
 pass
 through
 the
 financial
 system
 to
 the
 holders
 of
 the

underlying
mortgages
and
mortgage‐backed
securities.




While
policy
makers
have
paid
lip‐service
to
the
mortgage
problem,
the
solutions
that
have
been
offered

so
 far
 have
 been
 astonishingly
 ineffective.
 Without
 a
 more
 thoughtful
 policy
 response
 than
 we
 have

seen
so
far
we
risk
more
unfocused
programs
that
have
 little
chance
of
success.
Moreover
many
of
the

proposals
that
have
been
on
the
table
are
potentially
extremely
costly
and
will
saddle
our
children
with

massive
tax
obligations.
Our
generation
will
effectively
be
dimming
the
lights
for
the
next
generation.



It
does
not
help
matters
that
the
underlying
question
of
how
policy
makers
should
respond
to
the
crisis

remains
 unsettled.
 On
 the
 one
 hand,
 there
 are
 those
 who
 view
 mortgage
 problems
 as
 private,
 not

meriting
 government
 intervention.
 
 At
 the
 other
 extreme
 are
 those
 who
 advocate
 brute
 force

intervention
 that
 would
 pass
 the
 vast
 majority
 of
 costs
 on
 to
 taxpayers.
 
 We
 adopt
 a
 more
 nuanced

approach,
and
present
a
five
point
plan
of
action
for
policy
makers
that
is
aimed
at
overcoming
a
specific

market
failure.



The
 market
 failure
 that
 we
 highlight
 derives
 from
 the
 incompleteness
 of
 the
 standard
 mortgage

contract.
 While
 this
 contract
 calls
 for
 the
 borrower
 to
 make
 a
 fixed
 stream
 of
 payments,
 it
 is
 implicitly

understood
by
both
borrower
and
lender
that
such
payments
will
not
be
possible
in
various
states
of
the

world.
 Rather
 than
 try
 to
 specify
 all
 such
 contingencies
 up
 front,
 both
 parties
 understand
 that
 the

contract
terms
can
be
revisited
in
unusual
contingencies
and
suitable
adjustments
 made.
 In
some
such

contingencies
 of
 non‐payment,
 economic
 logic
 dictates
 enforcement
 of
 the
 original
 contract
 terms,
 in

which
 non‐payment
 of
 the
 full
 amount
 due
 leads
 to
 default
 and
 foreclosure.
 In
 others,
 it
 dictates

renegotiation
that
may
fundamentally
change
the
terms
of
the
contract.
This
is
the
situation
in
which
we

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Business.

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Reserved.

38

find
 ourselves
 today.
 It
 was
 not
 foreseen
 in
 the
 initial
 contracts
 that
 home
 values
 around
 the
 country

would
 crash
 simultaneously
 with
 massive
 declines
 in
 income.
 Given
 that
 this
 negative
 outcome
 was

largely
 out
 of
 the
 control
 of
 the
 individual
 homeowner,
 renegotiation
 is
 a
 viable
 solution
 that
 can

balance
the
 interests
of
 both.
In
fact
 it
 is
hard
 to
see
 who
benefits
 when
masses
of
households
default

on
 their
 mortgages.
 Default
 and
 foreclosure
 are
 long,
 slow,
 and
 expensive
 processes,
 with
 the
 cost
 of

foreclosure
estimated
to
be
at
 least
$70,000
on
a
 median
home
price
of
$200,000.
 Moreover
there
are

externalities
that
are
associated
with
properties
that
do
foreclose
in
that
they
contaminate
the
value
of

neighboring
properties



The
 form
 of
 the
 renegotiation
 of
 under
 water
 mortgages
 that
 we
 propose
 involves
 debt
 for
 equity

swaps.
 Such
 swaps
 are
 common
 in
 the
 corporate
 sector:
 for
 example
 the
 recent
 recapitalization
 of

GMAC
and
many
other
lending
institutions
is
based
on
debt
holders
agreeing
to
swap
debt
for
equity
in

the
newly
re‐organized
firm.
The
rationalization
of
such
a
swap
is
that
it
replaces
the
fixed
obligation
of

the
 debt
 contract
 with
 the
 more
 flexible
 obligation
 of
 the
 equity
 contract,
 in
 which
 the
 amount
 of
 the

ultimate
repayment
depends
on
how
well
the
business
does.

Economic
logic
dictates
that
similar
forms

of
debt
for
equity
swap
be
made
available
for
households
that
find
themselves
thrust
into
problems
by

forces
 largely
 beyond
 their
 control.
 Unfortunately,
 the
 institutional
 realities
 have
 hitherto
 prevented

such
swaps
from
being
undertaken.


We
 present
 a
 five
 part
 plan
 of
 action
 to
 overcome
 barriers
 to
 rational
 equity‐based
 renegotiation
 of

existing
 mortgage
 contracts.
 The
 first
 stage
 involves
 regulators
 and
 legislators
 specifying
 terms
 of
 debt

for
 equity
 swaps.
 The
 second
 involves
 their
 creating
 an
 appropriate
 fiscal
 and
 accounting
 framework.

The
 third
 involves
 their
 setting
 up
 projects
 to
 demonstrate
 the
 economic
 viability
 of
 debt
 for
 equity

swaps.
 The
 fourth
 involves
 addressing
 legal
 obstacles
 posed
 by
 securitization.
 The
 fifth
 involves
 the

simplification
of
secondary
default
for
borrowers
who
swap
debt
for
equity.



Some
critical
advantages
of
the
plan
are:


• It
aligns
the
interests
of
lenders
and
borrowers,
in
that
they
share
costs
associated
with
the
fall

in
house
prices,
and
potential
gains
associated
with
their
recovery.

• It
avoids
creating
incentives
for
default
or
delinquency.

• It
respects
borrowers’
ability
to
pay
in
the
short
run
and
the
long
run
to
avoid
secondary
default.

• It
 bridges
 the
 contractual
 divide
 that
 separate
 borrowers
 from
 investors
 in
 securitized

mortgages.

This
cannot
be
left
to
the
household.


• It
provides
a
contractual
form
that
is
useful
in
the
long
run.

• It
encourages
owners
of
mortgages
and
mortgage
backed
securities
to
renegotiate
at
an
earlier

stage
in
the
default
cycle
than
they
do
at
present.


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2008
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of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

39

• It
relies
to
the
maximum
extent
possible
on
creative
use
of
regulations
to
provide
incentives
for

restructuring,
greatly
reducing
costs
to
taxpayer.



Overall,
 our
 plan
 would
 greatly
 speed
 market
 normalization,
 reduce
 default
 and
 foreclosure,
 increase

asset
 values
of
holders
 of
mortgage
backed
securities,
all
the
 while
costing
 taxpayers
far
 less
now
than

they
 will
 be
 due
 later.
 Moreover
 it
 works
 simultaneously
 to
 resolve
 short
 run
 problems
 and
 to
 rectify

longer
term
structural
problems
of
mortgage
markets.














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40


Chapter
17:
Executive
Summary

Where
Should
the
Bailout
Stop?

£JwotJ l. Altmoo ooJ 1bomos lbll lppoo
Background

The
massive
US
Government
bailout
originally
intended
for
the
financial
industry
has
now
spread
to
the

non‐financial
sector,
and
the
government
is
considering
bailing
out
car
manufacturers.
This
is
partly
the

fault
of
the
financial
bailout
itself,
which
was
poorly
designed
and
too
generous
to
the
financial
industry.

Unfortunately,
 history
 and
 political
 economy
 have
 taught
 us
 that
 ad‐hoc
 government
 interventions
 to

bail
out
industries
are
a
recipe
for
long
run
economic
stagnation.
This
does
not
mean,
however,
that
the

government
should
stay
on
the
sidelines.
We
propose
a
set
of
principles
for
efficient
interventions,
and

we
show
how
these
principles
apply
in
the
case
of
General
Motors.

The
Issues

The
main
issues
are
as
follows:
1. Which
principles
should
guide
government
interventions?

2. Should
the
financial
industry
be
the
only
one
to
receive
public
support?

3. Should
the
government
offer
support
to
automakers?
If
yes,
how?

We
 argue
 that
 government
 interventions
 should
 be
 based
 on
 a
 consistent
 set
 of
 principles
 because

interventions
 without
 principles
 are
 almost
 guaranteed
 to
 be
 captured
 by
 interest
 groups,
 to
 become

excessively
politicized,
and
to
be
inefficient
in
the
long
run.
We
present
four
broad
principles:

1. The
market
failure
must
be
identified

2. The
intervention
should
use
efficient
tools

3. The
costs
for
the
tax
payers
should
be
minimized

4. Government
intervention
should
not
create
moral
hazard

Case
Study
­
How
to
Help
GM

Based
 on
 these
 principles,
 there
 is
 indeed
 a
 case
 for
 government
 intervention
 in
 favor
 of
 GM,
 but
 this

intervention
should
not
be
a
give‐away
bailout.


The
 market
 failure
 that
 we
 identify
 is
 the
 disappearance
 of
 the
 debtor‐in‐possession
 (DIP)
 market

because
of
the
financial
crisis.
This
provides
a
rationale
for
government
intervention
(fltst ptloclple).
To

be
 efficient,
 the
 reorganization
 should
 be
 thorough,
 and
 therefore
 lengthy.
 This
 is
 why
 it
 should
 take

place
 under
 Chapter
 11
 of
 the
 Bankruptcy
 Code
 (secooJ ptloclple).
 To
 minimize
 the
 costs
 to
 the
 tax

payers,
 the
 government
 should
 provide
 DIP
 financing
 (directly
 or
 through
 private
 financial
 institutions)

because
 DIP
 loans
 are
 well
 protected
 (tbltJ ptloclple).
 Finally,
 reorganization
 in
 Bankruptcy
 does
 not

reward
bad
management
and
therefore
minimizes
moral
hazard
(foottb ptloclple).

We
 advocate
 a
 massive
 “DIP”
 loan
 to
 GM
 in
 bankruptcy.
 The
 current
 bailout
 plan
 would
 offer
 less
 of
 a

breathing
 space
 to
 GM
 and
 imply
 more
 job
 cuts
 in
 the
 short
 run
 than
 our
 proposed
 bankruptcy/DIP

financing
plan.
The
DIP
loan
would
allow
the
restructuring
to
take
place
over
18
to
24
months
while
the

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Business.

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Reserved.

41

bailout
would
be
barely
sufficient
to
avoid
liquidation
in
2009.
To
further
limit
the
ripple
effects
of
GM’s

bankruptcy,
 the
 government
 should
 also
 consider
 backstopping
 warranties
 and
 spare
 parts
 availability,

even
if
the
reorganization
fails.

Þo||cy kecommendat|ons
1. Reorganization
 under
 Chapter
 11
 of
 the
 bankruptcy
 code
 is
 an
 efficient
 process
 and
 should

always
be
the
default
option.

2. Current
 Chapter
 11
 procedures
 cannot
 deal
 with
 the
 failure
 of
 Large
 and
 Complex
 Financial

Institutions
 because
 financial
 crises
 unfold
 too
 quickly.
 We
 therefore
 advocate
 the
 creation
 of

specific
Bankruptcy
procedures
to
deal
with
such
cases.

3. Car
 manufacturers
 should
 be
 allowed
 to
 reorganize
 under
 the
 protection
 of
 the
 bankruptcy

code,
and
the
government
should
step
in
to
provide
DIP
financing
if
necessary.
















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Table
of
Contents

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

42


Chapter
18:
Executive
Summary

International
Alignment
of
Financial

Sector
Regulation

vltol v. Acbotvo. lool wocbtel ooJ looo woltet
Background

Many
 of
 the
 policy
 recommendations
 being
 put
 forward
 to
 repair
 national
 financial
 architectures
 will
 prove

to
be
ineffective
‐
or
at
least
their
edge
blunted
‐
if
there
is
a
lack
of
international
coordination
among
central

banks
and
financial
stability
regulators
in
implementing
them.

This
issue
is
important;
although
cross‐border

banking
 and
 financial
 flows
 are
 extensive,
 much
 of
 bank
 and
 financial
 supervision
 remains
 national.
 There
 is

some
 consensus
 on
 prudential
 aspects
 of
 regulation
 such
 as
 capital
 requirements
 and
 their
 calculation,
 but

there
 is
 hardly
 any
 consensus
 on
 the
 core
 set
 of
 principles
 driving
 the
 regulatory
 stance
 to
 providing

guarantees
and
intervening
in
markets
and
banking
sector.


The
Issues

Complications
 that
 could
 arise
 from
 lack
 of
 coordination
 between
 national
 regulators
 are
 many.
 These

complications
are
largely
due
to
regulatory
arbitrage
across
national
jurisdictions:
i.e.
if
institutions
are
more

strictly
 regulated
 in
 one
 jurisdiction
 they
 may
 move
 (their
 base
 for)
 financial
 intermediation
 services
 to

jurisdictions
 that
 are
 more
 lightly
 regulated.
 But
 given
 their
 inter‐connected
 nature,
 such
 institutions

nevertheless
 expose
 all
 jurisdictions
 to
 their
 risk‐taking.
 
 Individually,
 jurisdictions
 may
 prefer
 to
 be

regulation‐lite
 in
 order
 to
 attract
 more
 institutions
 and
 thereby
 jobs.
 
 For
 example,
 they
 may
 adopt
 weak

accounting
standards
 to
allow
opacity
of
off‐balance‐sheet
leverage,
not
require
OTC
derivatives
 to
trade
on

centralized
 clearinghouse,
 allow
 systemically
 large
 institutions
 to
 grow
 without
 imposing
 a
 significant

additional
“tax”,
and
grant
generous
bailout
packages
during
a
crisis.

• A
“beggar‐thy‐neighbor”
competitive
approach
to
regulation
in
different
countries
–
or
even
their
failure

to
coordinate
without
any
explicit
competitive
incentives
–
will
lead
to
a
race
to
the
bottom
in
regulatory

standards.
 This
 will
 end
 up
 conferring
 substantial
 guarantees
 to
 the
 financial
 sector,
 giving
 rise
 to

excessive
leverage‐
and
risk‐taking
incentives
in
spite
of
 substantial
regulation
in
each
 country.

Such
an

outcome
 should
 be
 avoided
 at
 all
 costs.
 
 The
 problem
 is
 one
 of
 externalities,
 and
 the
 case
 for

coordination
 is
 therefore
 a
 compelling
 one.
 
 However,
 is
 such
 coordination
 feasible?
 
 If
 yes,
 what
 form

will
it
take?


We
 believe
 it
 is
 highly
 unlikely
 that
 an
 international
 financial
 sector
 regulator
 with
 power
 over
 markets
 and

institutions
 will
 emerge
 in
 the
 foreseeable
 future;
 countries
 are
 simply
 not
 willing
 to
 surrender
 authority.

 It

remains
unrealistic
to
expect
that
an
international
central
bank
will
be
able
to
close
down
a
large
part
of
the

financial
 sector
 of
 a
 country
 or
 determine
 monetary
 or
 fiscal
 policy
 for
 a
 country;
 or
 that
 international
 civil

servants
 will
 supervise
 or
 inspect
 national
 financial
 institutions.
 
 Indeed,
 such
 centralization
 may
 not
 be

necessary
 and
 may
 even
 be
 undesirable.
 
 The
 issue
 is
 one
 of
 externalities
 and
 coordination
 may
 suffice.
If

national
regulators
can
agree
upon
a
core
set
of
sensible
regulatory
principles,
 then
 the
constraints
imposed

by
 such
 alignment
 would
 reduce
 regulatory
 arbitrage
 through
 jurisdictional
 choice
 substantially,
 even
 if

specific
national
implementations
of
the
principles
vary
to
some
extent.

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

43

Policy
Recommendations

Our
recommended
steps
to
achieve
such
international
coordination
for
designing
the
blueprint
of
global

financial
architecture
are
thus
as
follows:
Central
banks
of
the
largest
financial
markets
should
convene
first,
and
agree
on
a
broad
set
of
principles
for

regulation
of
banks.

These
principles
should
cover
the
following
themes:

1. Each
central
bank
should
carve
out
a
dedicated
role
for
a
powerful
LCFI
regulator
that
is
in
charge
of

supervising
and
managing
the
systemic
risk
of
large,
complex
financial
institutions.

2. The
supervisory
and
control
apparatus
of
each
LCFI
regulator
should
feature:

a. Coordinating
 with
 financial
 sector
 firms
 to
 provide
 long‐term
 incentives
 to
 senior

management
and
traders
and
other
risk‐taking
employees;

b. Fair
pricing
of
explicit
government
guarantees
such
as
deposit
insurance
and,
where
implicit

government
 guarantees
 are
 inevitable,
 limiting
 their
 scope
 by
 ring‐fencing
 activities
 of

guaranteed
entities;

c. Standards
 for
 transparency
 and
 accounting
 of
 off‐balance‐sheet
 activities
 and
 centralized

clearing
for
large
OTC
derivative
markets
to
reduce
counterparty
risk
externality;


d. Imposition
 of
 a
 systemic
 risk
 “tax”
 on
 LCFIs,
 that
 is
 based
 on
 aggregate
 risk
 contribution
 of

institutions
rather
than
their
individual
risk
exposures;

e. Agreement
 on
 overall
 objective
 and
 design
 of
 lender‐of‐last‐resort
 facilities
 to
 deal
 in
 a

robust
manner
with
liquidity
and
solvency
concerns;
and,


f. Agreeing
 on
 a
 set
 of
 procedures
 to
 stem
 systemic
 crises
 as
 and
 when
 they
 arise
 based
 on

clear
 short‐term
 policy
 measures
 (such
 as
 loan
 guarantees
 and
 recapitalizations
 that
 are

fairly
priced
and
impose
low
costs
on
taxpayers),
and
long‐term
policy
measures
(such
as
the

shutting‐down
 of
 insolvent
 institutions,
 providing
 fiscal
 stimulus,
 and
 addressing
 the
 root

cause
of
financial
crises
–
e.g.,
mortgages
in
this
case).


3. Next,
 central
 banks
 should
 present
 their
 joint
 proposal
 with
 specific
 recommendations
 to
 their

respective
 national
 authorities,
 seek
 political
 consensus
 for
 an
 international
 forum
 such
 as
 the

Financial
 Stability
 Forum
 or
 a
 committee
 of
 the
 BIS
 to
 coordinate
 discussion
 and
 implementation
 of

these
principles,
and
monitor
their
acceptance
and
application.



A
commitment
to
such
a
process
will
generate
a
willingness
to
take
the
outcome
seriously
and
hopefully
pave

the
way
for
international
coordination
on
well‐rounded
policies
that
balance
growth
with
financial
stability
as

efforts
get
under
way
to
repair
national
financial
architectures.







Back
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Table
of
Contents

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

44


NYU
Stern
Author
Biographies


V|ra| V. Acharya, Þrofessor of I|nance:
Research
expertise
in
the
regulation
of
banks
and
financial

institutions,
corporate
finance,
credit
risk
and
valuation
of
corporate
debt,
and
asset
pricing
with
a
focus

on
the
effects
of
liquidity
risk.

Prof.
Acharya
is
at
NYU
Stern
and
London
Business
School.

Ldward I. A|tman, Max. L. ne|ne Þrofessor of I|nance:
Research
expertise
in
corporate
bankruptcy,
high

yield
bonds,
distressed
debt
and
credit
risk
analysis.

Dav|d k. 8ackus, ne|nz k|eh| Þrofessor of Internat|ona| Lconom|cs and I|nance: Research
expertise
in

international
business
cycles,
foreign
exchange,
fixed
income
securities,
and
currency
and
interest
rate

derivatives.

Menachem 8renner, Þrofessor of I|nance:
Research
expertise
in
derivative
markets,
hedging,
option

pricing,
volatility
indexes,
inflation
expectations
and
market
efficiency.

5tephen I. 8rown, Dav|d 5. Loeb Þrofessor of I|nance:
Research
expertise
in
hedge
funds,
mutual
funds,

Japanese
equity
markets,
empirical
finance
and
asset
allocation,
and
investment
management.

Ienn|fer N. Carpenter, Assoc|ate Þrofessor of I|nance:
Research
expertise
in
executive
stock
options,

fund
manager
compensation,
survivorship
bias,
corporate
bonds
and
option
pricing.

1homas I. Coo|ey, k|chard k. West Dean and the Þagane|||-8u|| Þrofessor of Lconom|cs:
Research

expertise
in
macroeconomic
theory,
monetary
theory
and
policy,
and
the
financial
behavior
of
firms.

kobert I. Lng|e, M|chae| Arme|||no Þrofessor of I|nance: Research
expertise
in
financial
econometrics

and
market
volatility,
and
recipient
of
the
2003
Nobel
Prize
in
Economics
for
his
work
in
methods
in

analyzing
economic
time
series
with
time‐varying
volatility
(ARCH).


5tephen C. I|g|ewsk|, Þrofessor of I|nance:
Research
expertise
in
derivatives,
risk
management
and

financial
markets.

kav|er Gaba|x, Assoc|ate Þrofessor of I|nance:
Research
expertise
in
asset
pricing,
executive
pay,
the

causes
and
consequences
of
seemingly
irrational
behavior,
the
origins
scaling
laws
in
economics
and

macroeconomics.

kose Iohn, Char|es W||||am Gerstenberg Þrofessor of 8ank|ng and I|nance:
Research
expertise
in

corporate
governance,
corporate
bankruptcy,
executive
compensation
and
corporate
disclosure.

Marc|n kacperczyk, Ass|stant Þrofessor of I|nance:
Research
expertise
in
institutional
investors,

empirical
asset
pricing,
mutual
funds,
socially
responsible
investing
and
behavioral
finance.

A|exander L[ungqv|st, kesearch Þrofessor of I|nance:
Research
expertise
in
financial
intermediation,

investment
banking,
initial
public
offerings,
entrepreneurial
finance
and
venture
capital,
corporate

governance
and
behavioral
corporate
finance.

Anthony W. Lynch, Assoc|ate Þrofessor of I|nance:
Research
expertise
in
asset
pricing,
mutual
funds

and
portfolio
choice.

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

45

Lasse n. Þedersen, Þrofessor of I|nance: Research
expertise
in
liquidity
risk,
margins,
short
selling,
spiral

effects,
liquidity
crisis,
and
the
valuation
of
stocks,
bonds,
derivatives,
currencies,
and
OTC
securities.

1homas Þh|||ppon, Ass|stant Þrofessor of I|nance:
Research
expertise
in
macroeconomics,
risk

management,
corporate
finance,
business
cycles,
corporate
governance,
earnings
management
and

unemployment.

Matthew Þ. k|chardson, Char|es 5|mon Þrofessor of App||ed I|nanc|a| Lconom|cs and D|rector,
5a|omon Center for the 5tudy of I|nanc|a| Inst|tut|ons:
Research
expertise
in
capital
market
efficiency,

investments
and
empirical
finance.

Nour|e| koub|n|, Þrofessor of Lconom|cs and Internat|ona| 8us|ness:
Research
expertise
in

international
macroeconomics
and
finance,
fiscal
policy,
political
economy,
growth
theory
and
European

monetary
issues.

5tephen G. kyan, Þrofessor of Account|ng:
Research
expertise
in
accounting
measurement,
accounting‐
based
valuation
and
risk
assessment,
and
financial
reporting
by
financial
institutions
and
for
financial

instruments.
Anthony 5aunders, Iohn M. 5ch|ff Þrofessor of I|nance:
Research
expertise
in
financial
institutions
and

international
banking.

Þh|||pp 5chnab|, Ass|stant Þrofessor of I|nance:
Research
expertise
in
corporate
finance,
financial

intermediation
and
banking.

koy C. 5m|th, kenneth Langone Þrofessor of Lntrepreneursh|p and I|nance:
Research
expertise
in

international
banking
and
finance,
entrepreneurial
finance
and
institutional
investment
practice,
and

professional
conduct
and
business
ethics.

Mart| G. 5ubrahmanyam, Char|es L. Merr||| Þrofessor of I|nance and Lconom|cs:
Research
expertise
in

valuation
of
corporate
securities;
options
and
futures
markets;
asset
pricing,
especially
in
relationship
to

liquidity;
market
microstructure;
the
term
structure
of
interest
rates;
fixed
income
markets;
family

business
and
real
option
pricing.

kangara[an k. 5undaram, Þrofessor of I|nance:
Research
expertise
in
agency
problems,
executive

compensation,
corporate
finance,
derivatives
pricing,
and
credit
risk
and
credit
derivatives.

5t|[n Van N|euwerburgh, Ass|stant Þrofessor of I|nance:
Research
expertise
in
finance,

macroeconomics,
general
equilibrium
asset
pricing
and
the
role
of
housing
in
the
macroeconomy.

Þau| A. Wachte|, Þrofessor of Lconom|cs:
Research
expertise
in
monetary
policy,
central
banking,
and

financial
sector
reform
in
economies
in
transition.

Ingo Wa|ter, 5eymour M||ste|n Þrofessor of I|nance, Corporate Governance and Lth|cs:
Research

expertise
in
international
trade
policy,
international
banking,
environmental
economics
and
economics

of
multinational
corporate
operations.

Lawrence I. Wh|te, Arthur L. Imperatore Þrofessor of Lconom|cs:
Research
expertise
in
structure,

conduct,
and
performance
of
financial
intermediaries
and
risk
management
in
financial
firms.


kobert L. Wr|ght, C||n|ca| Assoc|ate Þrofessor of Lconom|cs:
Research
expertise
in
the
history
of
banks

and
banking,
securities
markets,
corporate
finance
and
governance,
government
debt
and
insurance.

©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

All
Rights
Reserved.

46

L|tan 2eme|, W. Ldwards Dem|ng Þrofessor of Cua||ty and Þroduct|v|ty:
Research
expertise
in
supply

chain
management,
operations
strategy,
service
operations
and
incentive
issues
in
operations

management.

Additional
Authors

Andrew Cap||n, Þrofessor of Lconom|cs at New ¥ork Un|vers|ty's 5choo| of Arts and 5c|ence: Research

expertise
in
economic
fluctuations,
macroeconomic
theory,
microeconomic
theory,
housing
market

Dw|ght Iaffee,
V|s|t|ng Þrofessor at N¥U 5tern and W||||s
8ooth Þrofessor of 8ank|ng, I|nance and kea|
Lstate,
and
Co-Cha|r, I|sher Center for kea| Lstate and
Urban Lconom|cs:

Research
expertise
in
finance

and
real
estate.






















Back
to
Table
of
Contents




 Preface


 As
2008
was
drawing
to
a
close,
we
were
reflecting
on
the
dramatic
and
often
unprecedented
events
of
 the
 past
 year
 in
 financial
 markets
 and
 the
 broader
 economy.
 Nothing
 like
 this
 had
 occurred
 in
 our
 lifetimes.
In
our
academic
world,
few
events
had
as
much
potential
for
providing
us
and
our
colleagues
 with
a
rich
source
of
raw
material
for
good
research
 and
teaching
for
a
long
time
to
come.

This
is
the
 ultimate
 teachable
 moment
 and
 it
 is
 essential
 to
 teach
 it.
 We
 were
 in
 the
 middle
 of
 a
 financial
 and
 economic
 hurricane
 that
 was
 certain
 to
 leave
 behind
 massive
 financial
 and
 economic
 damage.
 It
 will
 eventually
blow
over,
as
all
hurricanes
do,
but
it
is
not
too
early
to
begin
to
think
about
what
changes
to
 the
system
can
mitigate
the
damage
and
hopefully
make
future
financial
storms
less
likely.
 With
 one
 of
 the
 largest
 and
 best
 faculties
 in
 the
 world
 focused
 on
 finance,
 economics,
 and
 related
 disciplines
 –
 academics
 deeply
 rooted
 in
 their
 respective
 disciplines
 and
 also
 heavily
 exposed
 to
 the
 practice
 of
 modern
 financial
 institutions
 ‐
 we
 thought
 that
 the
 financial
 crisis
 provided
 a
 unique
 opportunity
to
harness
our
collective
expertise
and
make
a
serious
contribution
to
the
repair
efforts
that
 are
 getting
 underway.
 We
 convened
 a
 small
 group
 of
 interested
 faculty,
 the
 idea
 caught
 on,
 and
 we
 decided
to
execute
this
project.
All
faculty
members
in
the
relevant
disciplines
at
the
Stern
School
were
 invited
 to
 participate
 if
 they
 had
 the
 time
 and
 the
 interest,
 and
 32
 colleagues
 did
 so
 (participants
 are
 listed
at
the
end
of
this
volume).

 Next,
key
topics
related
to
the
crisis
and
its
resolution
were
identified,
and
individual
teams
of
authors
 set
to
work.
As
a
common
format
we
used
the
“White
Paper.”
Each
starts
by
discussing
the
nature
of
the
 problem,
 where
 things
 went
 wrong
 and
 where
 we
 are
 today,
 what
 options
 are
 available
 to
 repair
 the
 immediate
 damage
 and
 prevent
 a
 recurrence
 at
 the
 least
 possible
 cost
 to
 financial
 efficiency
 and
 growth,
 and
 a
 recommended
 course
 of
 action
 with
 respect
 to
 public
 policy
 or
 business
 conduct.
 Each
 White
 Paper
 (many
 of
 which
 are
 substantially
 more
 definitive
 than
 we
 initially
 envisaged)
 is
 accompanied
 by
 a
 short,
 easily
 accessible
 Executive
 Summary.
 Each
 White
 Paper
 was
 intensively
 debated
both
formally
and
informally
among
the
group
over
six
weeks
or
so,
although
no
attempt
was
 made
to
enforce
uniformity
of
views.

 This
has
been
a
unique
opportunity
to
bring
our
cumulative
expertise
to
bear
on
an
overarching
set
of
 issues
that
will
affect
the
national
and
global
financial
landscape
going
forward.
We
know
that
the
repair
 process
in
the
months
and
years
to
come
will
be
highly
politicized,
and
that
special
interests
of
all
kinds
 will
work
hard
to
affect
the
outcomes.
We
also
know
that
some
of
those
entrusted
with
the
repair
have
 also
 been
 responsible
 for
 some
 of
 the
 damage.
 So
 we
 present
 here
 a
 set
 of
 views
 that
 are
 at
 once
 informed,
carefully
considered
and
debated,
independent
and
focused
exclusively
on
the
public
interest.
 
 Thomas
F.
Cooley,
Dean

 Ingo
Walter,
Vice
Dean
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 New
York
 December
2008



 


*

*

!"#$%&'()*+'(,(-',.*/$,0'.'$12** 3%4*$%*!"5,'&*,*+,'."6*/1#$"7**
86'$"6*01*9'&,.*9:*;-<,&1,*,(6*=,$$<"4*!'-<,&6#%(*

/>77,&1* ?(*"')<$""(*#<%&$@*$,&)"$"6*,(6*6"A'('$'B"*C<'$"*D,5"&#*E*",-<*$&,-'()*$<"*-%&"*%A*,*5&%0."7*A,-'()*$<"* A'(,(-',.*#"-$%&@*"B,.>,$'()*$<"*5%.'-1*,.$"&(,$'B"#@*,(6*&"-%77"(6'()*,*#5"-'A'-*-%>&#"*%A*,-$'%(*F* 7"70"&#*%A*$<"*/$"&(*A,->.$1*,55.1*#%>(6*5&'(-'5."#*,(6*5&%B'6"*,*0.>"5&'($*A%&*&"-%(A')>&'()*$<"* A'(,(-',.*,&-<'$"-$>&"*,(6*&")>.,$'%(*,A$"&*$<"*-&'#'#:* * /"-$'%(*?2*G,>#"#*%A*$<"*+'(,(-',.*G&'#'#*%A*HIIJEHIIK* Chapter
1:
Mortgage
Origination
and
Securitization
in
the
Financial
Crisis
 
 
 9
 Authors:
Dwight
Jaffee,
Anthony
Lynch,
Stijn
Van
Nieuwerburgh
and
Matthew
Richardson
 While
securitization
drove
the
unprecedented
growth
in
subprime
loans,
and
these
loans
 inadvertently
created
a
wave
of
refinancings
or
defaults
around
the
reset
date,
the
systemic
 dimensions
of
the
crisis
arose
from
the
leveraged
concentration
of
risky
mortgage‐backed
 securities
on
the
books
of
a
small
number
of
key
financial
institutions.
 
 Chapter
2:
How
Banks
Played
the
Leverage
“Game”?
 
 
 
 
 
 11
 Authors:
Viral
V.
Acharya
and
Philip
Schnabl
 Through
off‐balance‐sheet
credit
risk
transfer
that
incorporated
recourse
back
to
their
balance‐ sheets,
banks
avoided
regulatory
capital
requirements,
took
on
excessive
leverage,
and
used
the
 freed‐up
 capital
 to
 lend
 down
 the
 quality
 curve
 and
 bet
 on
 aggregate
 risks
 –
 with
 important
 implications
going
forward
for
regulating
and
defining
the
boundaries
of
financial
firms.* 
 
 
 
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

 All
Rights
Reserved.
 3


Chapter
3:
The
Rating
Agencies
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 13
 Authors:
Matthew
Richardson
and
Lawrence
White
 Although
the
major
rating
agencies
bear
much
responsibility
for
the
mortgage
securities
debacle
 of
2007‐2009,
a
thorough
understanding
of
how
and
why
the
agencies
grew
to
be
so
important
 is
necessary
before
policymakers
can
craft
sensible
regulatory
solutions.
 * /"-$'%(*??2*+'(,(-',.*?(#$'$>$'%(#* Chapter
4:
What
to
Do
About
the
Government
Sponsored
Enterprises?
 
 
 
 15
 Authors:
 Dwight
 Jaffee,
 Stijn
 Van
 Nieuwerburgh,
 Matthew
 Richardson,
 Lawrence
 White
 and
 Robert
 Wright
 Because
 private
 profit
 taking
 with
 socialized
 risk
 is
 untenable,
 the
 GSE’s
 investment
 function
 should
be
shuttered
and
its
securitization
and
guarantor
role
folded
into
a
government
agency.

 
 Chapter
5:
Enhanced
Regulation
of
Large
Complex
Financial
Institutions
 
 
 
 17
 Authors:
Anthony
Saunders,
Roy
Smith
and
Ingo
Walter
 Traces
 the
growth
and
 complexity
 of
the
new
 generation
of
 Goliaths
in
US
and
global
financial
 markets
 ‐
 all
 of
 which
 are
 now
 at
 the
 heart
 of
 the
 ongoing
 crisis
 ‐
 and
 explains
 why
 a
 special,
 dedicated
 regulator
 is
 necessary
 to
 protect
 the
 safety
 and
 soundness
 of
 the
 financial
 system
 from
problems
arising
in
institutions
that
are
too
big
or
too
interconnected
to
fail.
 
 Chapter
6:
Hedge
Funds
in
the
Aftermath
of
the
Financial
Crisis
 
 
 
 
 19
 Authors:
Stephen
Brown,
Marcin
Kacperczyk,
Alexander
Ljungqvist,
Anthony
Lynch,
Lasse
Pedersen
and
 Matthew
Richardson! Since
 hedge
 funds
 provide
 liquidity
 to
 the
 market
 and
 do
 not
 receive
 guarantees
 from
 the
 government,
 except
 for
 registration
 and
 appropriate
 disclosure,
 any
 additional
 regulation
 of
 hedge
funds
is
in
general
not
warranted,
except
to
the
extent
that
hedge
funds
are
generating
 systemic
risk
and
so
are
imposing
externalities
on
the
financial
system.

 
 /"-$'%(*???2*L%B"&(,(-"@*?(-"($'B"#*,(6*+,'&EB,.>"*;--%>($'()** Chapter
7:
Corporate
Governance
in
the
Modern
Financial
Sector
 
 
 
 21
 Authors:
 Viral
 V.
 Acharya,
 Jennifer
 Carpenter,
 Xavier
 Gabaix,
 Kose
 John,
 Matthew
 Richardson,
 Marti
 Subrahmanyam,
Rangarajan
Sundaram,
and
Eitan
Zemel
 Mistakes
in
corporate
governance
are
likely
to
have
played
a
central
role
in
the
global
financial
 crisis;
 the
 white
 paper
 provides
 a
 review
 of
 what
 should
 be
 done,
 and
 shouldn't
 be
 done,
 to
 improve
corporate
governance
in
financial
firms.
 
 Chapter
8:
Rethinking
Compensation
in
Financial
Firms
 
 
 
 
 
 23
 Authors:
Matthew
Richardson
and
Ingo
Walter
 Misalignment
 of
 top
 management
 compensation
 and
 short‐term
 rewards
 to
 key,
 high‐ performance,
risk‐taking
employees
 has
been
associated
with
both
shareholder
losses
and
the
 current
 crisis
 in
 the
 financial
 system,
 warranting
 a
 careful
 reexamination
 of
 compensation
 practices
by
individual
firms
and
more
broadly
in
the
market
for
financial
talent.
 
 
 
 
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 4



Robert
Engle.
and
should
take
the
form
of
a
capital
charge
 against
 each
 firm’s
 incremental
 contribution
 to
 systemic
 risk.(#5.
Acharya.
 5
 .
 * * * ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

 * /"-$'%(*?92*M"&'B.
however.
 policymakers
 should
 support
existing
fair
value
accounting
requirements.
there
should
be
no
 restrictions
placed
on
short
selling.'()*.
 
 Chapter
12:
Short
Selling
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 31
 Authors:
Menachem
Brenner
and
Marti
Subrahmanyam
 The
benefits
of
short
sales
are
far
more
salutary
than
its
costs.
Menachem
Brenner.(6*N&.
Acharya
and
David
Backus
 Central
 banks’
 lender‐of‐last‐resort
 facilities
 address
 the
 problem
 of
 illiquidity.Chapter
9:
Fair
Value
Accounting:
Policy
Issues
Raised
by
the
Credit
Crunch
 
 
 25
 Authors:
Stephen
Ryan
 Recent
 criticisms
 of
 fair
 value
 accounting
 are
 overstated
 and
 do
 not
 acknowledge
 that
 alternative
 measurement
 approaches
 would
 throw
 an
 accounting
 cloak
 over
 the
 very
 real
 and
 sizeable
 problems
 that
 economic
 policymakers
 must
 confront.with
the
exception
of

a
ban
on
“naked”
shorting
and
a
 requirement
for
timely.
 
 Chapter
11:
Centralized
Clearing
for
Credit
Derivatives
 
 
 
 
 
 29
 Authors:
Viral
V.
Acharya.
their
extension
to
all
financial
instruments.
 consequently.
transparent
reporting.
 but
 can
 exacerbate
 issues
 of
 insolvency.
 an
 FDIC‐style
 premium
 for
 systemic
 externalities.
such
as
the
material
adverse
change
clause
in
private
lines
of
credit.
Acharya.
 they
 should
 move
 to
 centralized
 clearing
with
greater
transparency.
Lasse
Pedersen.
Thomas
Philippon
and
Matthew
Richardson
 Prudential
regulation
should
be
based
on
a
financial
firm’s
contribution
to
losses
during
periods
 of
increased
aggregate
risk
in
the
financial
system.
 and
 expanded
 mandatory
 and
 voluntary
 disclosure
 of
 the
 effects
 of
 market
 illiquidity
 on
 fair
 values.
 * /"-$'%(*92*N<"*!%.
trading
 in
OTC
derivatives
should
be
transparent
and
regulated
like
exchange‐traded
ones.
Anthony
Lynch
and
Matthew
Richardson
 The
benefits
of
derivatives
outweigh
the
costs
associated
with
misusing
them.
 these
 facilities
 should
 involve
 strict
 conditionality.
 and/or
 the
 compulsory
 purchase
 of
 composite
 public
 and
 private
 aggregate
risk
insurance.$'B"#@*/<%&$*/".
consequently.
 All
Rights
Reserved..
 
 Chapter
14:
Private
Lessons
for
Public
Banking:
The
Case
for
Conditionality
in
LOLR
Facilities

 35
 Authors:
Viral
V.
and
thereby
 be
accessible
only
to
healthy
institutions.
 to
 keep
 them
 from
 playing
 such
 a
 central
 role
 in
 the
 next
 crisis."*%A*$<"*+"6* Chapter
13:
Regulating
Systemic
Risk
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 33
 Authors:
Viral
V.
Anthony
Lynch
and
Marti
Subrahmanyam
 Existing
Credit
Default
Swaps
have
played
an
important
role
in
exacerbating
the
current
financial
 crisis
 because
 the
 over‐the‐counter
 market
 they
 trade
 in
 is
 highly
 fragmented
 and
 opaque.
Steve
Figlewski.
 hence.
Robert
Engle.&"(-1* Chapter
10:
Derivatives
–
The
Ultimate
Financial
Innovation
 
 
 
 
 27
 Authors:
Viral
V.


 All
Rights
Reserved.
We
recommend
that
large
country
central
banks
assume
the
key
role
 of
systemic
risk
regulators
of
large.
 and
 monitor
 its
 implementation.$'%(* Chapter
18:
International
Alignment
of
Financial
Sector
Regulation

 
 
 
 43
 Authors:
Viral
V.
Acharya
and
Rangarajan
Sundaram
 In
contrast
to
the
financial
sector
rescue
plan
undertaken
by
the
UK.
 represents
 a
 significant
 wealth
 transfer
 from
 taxpayers
 to
 financial
 institutions.
 in
 many
 ways..

 
 Chapter
17:
Where
Should
the
Bailout
Stop?
 
 
 
 
 
 
 41
 Authors:
Edward
Altman
and
Thomas
Philippon

 Car
 manufacturers
 should
 be
 allowed
 to
 reorganize
 under
 the
 protection
 of
 the
 bankruptcy
 code.
and
the
government
should
provide
Debtor‐in‐Possession
financing
of
last
resort
–
but
no
 bailout.
 and
 offers
 no
 clear
 path
 back
 to
 a
 market‐based
 system.

 
 Chapter
16:
Mortgages
and
Households

 
 
 
 
 
 
 39
 Authors:
Andrew
Caplin
and
Thomas
Cooley
 Existing
 approaches
 to
 dealing
 with
 troubled
 mortgages
 are
 doomed
 to
 failure
 because
 of
 inherent
 design
 flaws.
Acharya.
 

 /"-$'%(*9??2*?($"&(.
that
of
the
US
is
excessively
 favorable
 to
 a
 small
 set
 of
 financial
 institutions.$'%(.
 6
 .
convene
to
agree
on
a
 set
of
sensible
core
principles
for
such
regulation.
Paul
Wachtel
and
Ingo
Walter
 Attempts
 to
 repair
 national
 financial
 architectures
 may
 ultimately
 fail
 in
 the
 absence
 of
 international
coordination.'.
 but
 a
 clear
 alternative
 that
 relies
 on
 shared
 appreciation
 mortgages
 makes
both
economic
and
public
policy
sense
without
requiring
big
taxpayer
subsidies.
 
 Contributors
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 45
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
 it
 may
 be
 sowing
the
seeds
of
the
next
crisis.
 places
 no
 important
 restrictions
 on
 the
 institutions'
 operations.
present
a
plan
with
specific
recommendations
 to
 national
 authorities
 and
 build
 a
 consensus
 for
 its
 acceptance.*G%%&6'(./"-$'%(*9?2*N<"*O.%>$* Chapter
15:
The
Financial
Sector
“Bailout”:
Sowing
the
Seeds
of
the
Next
Crisis
 
 
 37
 Authors:
Viral
V.
complex
financial
institutions
(LCFIs).


the
mortgages
were.

Two
big
reasons
for
 all
the
defaults
and
foreclosures
were
the
downturn
in
house
prices.
namely.
meant
to
be
refinanced
 or
 to
 default
 at
 the
 end
 of
 the
 2
 to
 3
 year
 period.!).!.
how
can
it
be
regulated?
Will
this
regulation
get
rid
 of
the
systemic
nature
of
some
of
the
mortgage
products?
 2.
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.0!10.


 The
Issues
 How
 should
 mortgage
 loan
 origination
 and
 securitization
 be
 regulated
 in
 the
 aftermath
 of
 the
 crisis?

 Some
of
the
major
regulatory
questions
are:
 1.
which
rendered
them
unable
to
internalize
the
costs
 of
default
and
foreclosure
fully. How
much
standardization
of
mortgage
loans
is
needed?
How
should
conforming
limits
be
set?
 3.'&/.
which
also
generated
considerable
dead
weight
costs
in
their
own
right.
 That
 is.2&.
was
not
these
factors.
 We
argue
that
the
primary
 culprit
 was
that
financial
institutions
did
not
follow
 the
business
model
of
securitization
by
transferring
 the
credit
 risk
 from
 their
 balance
 sheets
 to
 capital
 market
 investors. Can
“predatory
lending”
be
identified
and.
 Because
 these
 adjustable
 rates
 were
 offered
at
very
high
spreads.
 by
 holding
 large
 amounts
 of
 mortgage‐ backed
 securities
 (MBSs)
 tied
 to
 nonprime
 mortgages
 at
 the
 time
 of
 their
 defaults.6!8'$9.* • • The
 main
reason
for
 the
financial
 crisis.
 a
 number
 of
 financial
 institutions
 (like
 Citigroup.
Several
factors
in
the
mortgage
market
contributed
to
this
latter
reason:

 • Loan
 quality
 declined
 in
 large
 part
 because
 of
 one
 particular
 unintended
 consequence
 of
 securitization. What
regulatory
limits
(if
any)
should
be
placed
on
securitization?
 A
set
of
principles
can
help
frame
the
answers
to
these
questions.$+<#+5=<5%&! Background
 One
of
major
catalysts
for
the
current
financial
crisis
was
the
spate
of
defaults
and
foreclosures
in
2007
 and
2008.
 The
 2/28
 and
 3/27
 ARMs
 were
 being
 offered
 around
the
same
time
thus
creating
the
potential
for
an
unexpected
systemic
wave
of
refinancings
or
 defaults.!:).
if
so.
that
mortgage
lenders
did
not
bear
the
costs
of
these
declines
in
loan
quality.
however.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
for
all
intended
purposes.!3)''&+#!4$2&)567/.
 7
 .Chapter
1:
Executive
Summary
 Mortgage
Origination
and
Securitization
 in
the
Financial
Crisis
 "#$%&'!()**+.
 and
so
did
not
care
about
them.

* Another
likely
reason
for
the
decline
in
loan
quality
was
the
failure
of
lenders
to
understand
exactly
 the
terms
of
the
loans
they
were
being
offered.
 UBS
 and
 Merrill
 Lynch)
 suffered
 huge
 losses
 as
 the
 values
 of
 these
 securities
 tumbled.
coupled
with
a
dramatic
decline
in
 the
quality
of
mortgage
loans.

* The
majority
of
the
loans
in
the
subprime
sector
were
hybrid
adjustable
rate
mortgages
(ARMs)
with
 fixed
 rates
 for
 2
 to
 3
 years
 and
 adjustable
 rates
 thereafter.!-.


the
conforming
 national
loan
limit
is
set
each
year
based
on
changes
in
average
home
prices
over
the
previous
year.
 loan
 originators
 should
 be
 able
 to
 securitize
 any
 standardized
 conforming
 mortgage
 products
in
the
form
of
mortgage‐backed
securities.

We
call
for
the
GSEs’
 current
mandate
under
the
government’s
economic
stimulus
package
to
purchase
loans
beyond
the
 conforming
national
loan
limit
in
“high‐cost”
areas
to
become
permanent.
because
different
households.
 “too‐big‐to‐fail”
 firm)
 is
 involved. Conforming
 loans
 should
 continue
 to
 be
 standardized
 and
 efforts
 should
 be
 made
 towards
 standardization
for
non‐conforming
loans.

Finally.

Loan
originators
of
nonconforming
loans
should
 have
 “skin‐in‐the‐game.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 GSE.

At
the
same
time.

The
new
protections
need
to
be
construed
literally
so
that
they
do
not
restrict
the
 income
and
asset
combinations
that
creditors
are
allowed
to
find
acceptable.
one
of
the
impediments
is
that
these
solutions
will
fail
if
anywhere
in
the
securitization
 chain
 a
 government
 guaranteed
 financial
 institution
 (e.”
 
 While
 the
 private
 market
 should
 be
 able
 to
 solve
 this
 problem
 without
 regulation.

 3.
(ii)
amortize
the
origination
fee
over
some
period
of
the
 loan.
or
(iii)
not
be
able
to
“sell”
the
mortgage
servicing
rights.

Standardization
also
 limits
predatory
lending.
 For
 these
 cases.

There
is
therefore
a
trade‐off
and
the
exact
nature
of
any
included
provisions
 is
likely
to
be
important.
Under
the
Housing
and
Economic
Recovery
Act
of
2008
(HERA). The
recent
amendments
 to
Regulation
 Z
(Truth
in
 Lending)
by
the
Federal
Reserve
 Board
are
a
big
 step
 towards
 protecting
 consumers
 from
 predatory
 practices
 among
 mortgage
 originators
 in
 the
 subprime
space.
 Policy
Recommendations
 
 1.
It
is
highly
likely
that
 this
will
remove
the
systemic
nature
of
the
mortgage
products.Choice
and
innovation
is
good
and
non‐standard
contracts
can
add
value.
 the
 guaranteed
 institutions
 may
 need
 to
 require
 that
 the
 originators
(i)
hold
a
fraction
of
the
loans.
we
favor
that
number
over
the
more
stringent
115%
that
has
been
 adopted
for
next
year.
we
support
the
abolition
of
the
maximum
dollar
cap
on
the
loan.

There
is
clearly
a
tension
between
providing
mortgage
customers
with
choice
and
 innovation
while
at
the
same
time
protecting
them
from
predatory
lending
practices
 Loan
originators
and
mortgage
brokers
need
to
be
incentivized
to
internalize
the
externalities
created
by
the
 dead‐weight
 costs
 associated
 with
 defaults
 and
 foreclosures. As
 before.

Since
125%
of
the
median
house
 price
seems
quite
conservative.
 8
 .
by
 virtue
 of
 where
 they
 are
 in
 the
 life‐cycle
 and
 the
 properties
 of
 their
 labor
 income
 risk.
 but
cannot
decline
from
year
to
year.g.
 prefer
 different
 contracts.
 deposit
 institution.

We
support
this
calculation
of
the
limit.
 2.
standardization
is
good
because
it
promotes
liquidity
in
the
mortgage
backed
 securities
(MBS)
market
because
standardization
makes
the
securities
easier
 to
value.

Households
should
also
have
access
to
non‐standardized
 products
 which
 should
 be
 subject
 to
 additional
 regulatory
 vetting
 to
 ensure
 that
 no
 predatory
 lending
is
involved.

We
also
support
tying
the
 conforming
“high‐cost”
area
limits
to
regional
house
price
indices..


Including
provisions
for
efficient
renegotiation
and
reorganization
of
a
 loan
in
event
of
default
can
not
only
reduce
the
deadweight
costs
of
foreclosure
but
can
also
make
it
more
 difficult
to
securitize
the
loan.
 Making
 sure
 mortgage
 customers
 fully
 understand
the
terms
of
all
loan
products
offered
to
them
helps
them
to
internalize
the
costs
that
they
bear
 in
the
event
of
default
or
foreclosure.
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

&).
 Chapter
2:
Executive
Summary
 How
Banks
Played
the
Leverage
“Game”
 :$5)>!:?!-2&)50)!).
investors
would
return
 the
assets
back
to
bank
once
they
suffered
a
loss.
second.

 
 • ABCP
 conduits:
 Banks
 set
 up
 off‐balance‐sheet
 ABCP
 conduits
 where
 they
 transferred
 some
 of
 the
assets
they
 would
have
otherwise
held
on
their
books.
setting
up
of
asset‐backed
 commercial
paper
(ABCP)
“conduits”
(and
its
sister
concerns
such
as
“SIVs”)
by
banks.
and.
 significant
retention
by
banks
of
AAA‐rated
asset‐backed
securities.&).'! and
 25+6$'! +.
 they
 increased
 their
 short‐term
 liabilities.'! to
 these
 conduits.
In
the
process.
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
as
we
all
 know.
how
and
why
did
capital
adequacy
requirements
fail
in
their
stated
job
of
limiting
 bank
leverage
and
risk?

 Credit
Risk
Transfer
and
Regulatory
Arbitrage
 Our
analysis
of
the
credit
risk
transfer
mechanisms
employed
during
the
period
2003‐2007
suggest
the
 answer
is
simple:
While
credit
risk
transfer
may
have
economic
merit
as
a
risk‐transfer
tool.
they
exposed
themselves
to
the
risk
that
a
 significant
economy‐wide
shock
would
be
sufficient
to
wipe
out
their
capital
base
rapidly.

And.
What
 is
 more.

Nevertheless.
and
hide
them
in
the
shadow
banking
system.
starting
with
an
increase
in
delinquencies
on
sub‐prime
 mortgages
in
2006
and
2007
followed
by
the
subsequent
collapse
in
home
prices.

As
banks
rolled
out
more
and
more
ABCP
 conduits.
funded
them
with
a
sliver
of
 equity
 and
 the
 rest
 with
 rollover
 commercial
 paper.
Put
simply. In
particular.)=>! Background
 Credit
risk
transfer!mechanisms
such
as
securitization
are
simply
supposed
to
transfer
assets
and
risk
off
 bank
balance
sheets
and
on
to
other
investors
in
the
economy.
this
risk
did
indeed
materialize.
banks
increased
their
leverage
and
exposure
to
aggregate
risk
precisely
 by
availing
themselves
of
such
mechanisms.2+C+.
it
appears
that
in
the
 build‐up
to
the
financial
crisis.
Such
regulatory
arbitrage
took
two
principal
forms:
first.
they
 were
able
 to
free
 up
capital
to
 originate
more
assets.
 The
 enhancements
 implied
 that
 investors
 in
 conduits
 had
 recourse
to
banks
in
case
the
quality
of
assets
deteriorated.
 9
 .2+C+.
 
 But
 their
 effective
 or
 contingent
 leverage
 remained
in
the
“shadow”
 banking
system.
its
“dark”
 side
is
that
many
of
its
incarnations
may
have
been
clever
innovations
of
the
financial
sector
to
arbitrage
 regulation.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 and
 provided
 >$B<$6$'0! +. How
could
excessive
leverage
and
aggregate
risk
get
built
up
to
such
a
scale
in
a
financial
sector
 that
is
so
heavily
regulated?

 2.
generally
of
lower
quality.
Such
enhancements
were
treated
as
capital‐ light
in
existing
Basel
rules
for
capital
requirements.


 The
Issues
 The
immediate
policy
questions
are
as
follows:

 1.6!@&$>$AA!82&.


 
 While
 AAA‐rated
 securities
 are
 typically
 expected
 to
 carry
 low
 absolute
 risk.
Hence.
the
bank
 regulation
apparatus
around
us
needs
to
be
reformed
and
focused
more
on
aggregate
risk
to
 the
economy
rather
than
on
a
single
capital
ratio
tied
to
individual
bank
risk.
but
systemic
failures
of
many
credit
intermediaries
are.
 this
 fraction
 rises
 to
 50%.
 etc.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
 About
 30%
 of
 all
 AAA
 asset‐ backed
 securities
 remained
 #$'&$.
 10
 .
 the
 fact
 that
 the
 newer
 assets
 originated
 by
 banks
 were
 down‐the‐quality‐curve
was
ignored
and
thus
their
ratings
were
overly
generous. Regulation
that
focuses
narrowly
on
just
one
performance
metric
of
banks
will
be
easy
to
game.
 and
 if
 one
 includes
 ABCP
 conduits
 and
 SIVs
 that
 had
 recourse.
Not
surprisingly.
insured
 deposit
to
assets.
By
relying
on
several
aspects
(such
as
loans
to
deposits.
suffered
the
greatest
losses
and
equity
price
declines
during
the
crisis.

 Regulatory
arbitrage
as
a
business
model
is
a
dangerous
undertaking.
This
intuitive
 observation
suggests
that
regulation
designed
to
make
banks
individually
safer
may
encourage
 excessive
credit
risk
transfer
that
makes
aggregate
crises
more
severe.


 2.
holdings
of
liquid
treasuries
and
OECD
government
bonds
relative
to
assets.
 which
 again
 had
 a
 significantly
 lower
 capital
 charge.• Retention
of
AAA‐rated
ABS:

 Banks
also
exploited
the
fact
that
they
could
get
capital
relief
by
 simply
switching
away
from
 loans
into
investments
in
the
form
of
AAA‐rated
 tranches
of
CDOs
 and
 CLOs.
 The
current
regulatory
focus
is
on
a
single
ratio
(capital
to
suitably
risk‐weighted
assets).
While
it
brings
short‐run
rewards.
 the
lack
of
any
core
economic
value
rears
its
ugly
head
in
economic
downturns.

 Regulators
should
take
a
more
rounded
approach
that
examines
bank
balance‐sheets
as
equity
 or
credit
analysts
would
do.


 Policy
Recommendations
 1.
banks
 that
 had
 were
 more
 funded
 through
 ABCP
 relative
 to
 their
 equity
 and
 had
 greater
 capital‐light
 investments.
 All
Rights
Reserved. Regulators
should
recognize
that
isolated
failures
of
credit
intermediaries
are
not
a
problem
for
 economies
per
se.)
regulators
would
have
an
“early
warning”
system
that
raises
a
flag
when
further
 investigation
is
needed.! the
 banking
 system.


in
1975)
of
rating
 agency
that
had
to
be
heeded.'+.
 
 When
 house
 prices
 stopped
 going
 up.
These
regulations.

The
lenders
 in
 credit
 markets.
 and
 began
 to
 decline
 instead.
Starting
in
the
1930s.
 competition
 among
rating
agencies
should
be
a
good
thing.
leading
to
innovation
and
higher
quality
research.
 Specifically.
 
 The
 successful
 sale
 of
 the
 mortgage‐related
 debt
 securities
 that
had
subprime
residential
mortgages
and
other
debt
obligations
as
their
underlying
collateral
depended
 crucially
 on
 these
 agencies'
 initial
 ratings
 on
 these
 securities.
even
 +E! ).
financial
regulation
may
itself
be
the
root
cause
of
the
problem
since
the
 basis
 of
 the
 NRSRO’s
 authority
 as
 the
 central
 source
 of
 information
 about
 the
 creditworthiness
 of
 bonds
 decreases
competition
and
incentives
to
innovation.
the
 Securities
 and
 Exchange
 Commission
 (SEC)
 further
 enhanced
 the
 importance
 of
 the
 three
 major
 rating
 agencies.
governments.
There
is.
 are
 always
 trying
 to
 ascertain
 the
 creditworthiness
 of
 borrowers.
 the
 agencies
 measure
the
 likelihood
 of
 default
on
debt
issued
by
various
kinds
of
entities.
 and
 whether
 changes
 in
 regulation
 can
 forestall
 future
 such
 behavior.
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
and
(most
recently)
 securitizers
of
 mortgages
and
other
 loan
obligations.

 By
creating
a
category
("nationally
recognized
statistical
rating
organization".
 Chapter
3:
Executive
Summary
 The
Rating
Agencies:
Is
Regulation
the
 Answer?
 3)''&+#!4$2&)567/.
 The
 answer
 lies
 in
 the
 nature
 of
 the
 competition
 across
 the
 NRSROs.
 was
 poor.S.
 In
 theory.
 The
 question
 is
 why.
bringing
the
rest
of
the
U.

Business
models
aside.
 these
 initial
 ratings
 proved
 to
 be
 excessively
 optimistic
 ‐‐
 especially
 for
 the
 mortgages
that
were
originated
in
2005
and
2006.
 11
 .
 however.
or
NRSRO.
in
the
“issuer
pays”
model
 followed
by
the
three
major
players.
such
as
corporations.
competition
can
lead
to
inflated
ratings
because
the
company
chooses
 who
 should
 rate
 them.
On
the
one
hand.
 there
 is
a
 free
rider
problem.S.
a
problem
when
this
competition
is
put
into
practice.2+!D&$'+! Background
 Credit
rating
agencies
—
the
three
major
ones
being
Moody’s.
Mortgage
bonds
collapsed.
and
 it
 is
not
clear
 how
the
 free
 market
 can
 solve
it.
 in
 the
 “investor
 pays”
 model
 where
 one
 might
 expect
 the
 incentives
 to
be
 better
 aligned.
and
Fitch—are
firms
that
 offer
judgments
about
the
 creditworthiness
 of
 bonds.
played
a
central
role
in
the
recent
housing
bubble
and
then
in
 the
 subprime
 mortgage
 debacle
 of
 2007‐08.
and
then
subsequently
maintaining
a
barrier
to
entry
into
the
category.

 Issues
 Most
market
participants
now
agree
that
the
quality
of
the
ratings
of
collateralized
debt
obligations.
 financial
regulators
have
required
that
their
financial
institutions
heed
the
judgments
of
the
rating
agencies
 with
respect
to
these
institutions'
bond
investments.
 
 Credit
 rating
 agencies
 are
 one
 potential
source
of
such
information—but
they
are
far
from
the
only
potential
source.
 financial
sector
crashing
down
as
well.
including
investors
 in
 bonds.


 
 The
three
major
rating
agencies
in
the
U.
have
played
a
major
role
in
thrusting
the
agencies
into
the
center
of
the
bond
markets.!).
motivated
by
the
desire
for
safety
 in
bond
portfolios.
Standard
&
Poor's.6!1)#5+.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 On
 the
 other
 hand.


etc…).
past
audits
of
the
rating
agency’s
quality.
 the
 centralized
 clearing
 platform
 chooses
 which
 agency
will
rate
the
debt.
(ii)
the
conflict
of
interest
problem
because
the
agency
is
chosen
by
the
regulating
body.
and
(iii)
the
 competition
problem
because
the
regulator’s
choice
can
be
based
on
some
degree
of
excellence.
the
other
activities
of
the
advisor
 (which
 might
 pose
 potential
 conflicts).

 2. A
company
 that
 would
 like
 its
debt
rated
goes
 to
 the
 centralized
clearing
platform.
the
institution
would
have
to
justify
its
choice
of
advisor
to
its
regulator.
 Alternatively.
 but
 those
 institutions
 would
 have
 more
 latitude
 and
 flexibility
 with
 respect
 to
 where
 they
 could
 seek
advice.
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business..
and
technologies
‐
and
new
entry
in
a
way
that
has
not
been
 true
since
the
1930s.
thereby
 providing
the
rating
agency
with
incentives
to
invest
resources.
 however.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 put
 tremendous
 faith
 in
 the
 ability
 of
 the
 regulator
 to
 monitor
 and
 evaluate
 the
 rating
 agencies’
performance.Appropriate
public
policy
actions
depend
importantly
on
what
one
perceives
as
the
fundamental
problem
 vis‐à‐vis
 the
 credit
 rating
 agencies.e.
type
of
debt.
and
so
forth.
innovate.”
 the
 SEC
should
 create
 a
department
 that
houses
a
centralized
clearing
platform
for
ratings
agencies.

 3.
the
business
model
of
 the
advisor
(including
the
possibilities
of
conflicts
of
interest).
 Policy
Recommendations
 With
 respect
 to
 the
 rating
 agency’s
 business
 model
of
 “issuer
 pays.
 1.
and
perform
high
quality
work.


 1.
It
 does.
regulated
financial
institutions
would
be
free
to
take
advice
from
sources
that
they
 considered
to
be
most
reliable
‐
based
on
the
track
record
of
the
advisor. For
a
fee.
a
180‐degree
turn
would
be
to
withdraw
the
financial
regulations
that
thrust
the
rating
 agencies
into
the
center
of
the
bond
markets.
a
more
systematic
choice
process
 could
enhance
beneficial
competition.
While
this
choice
could
be
random.

But.
complexity
of
firm
and
issue.
We
propose
two
possible
models.
the
rating
agency
would
then
go
ahead
and
rate
the
debt.
 and
 also
 on
 one's
 confidence
 in
 the
 ability
 of
 regulators
 to
 devise
 effective
remedies.
a
flat
fee
would
be
assessed.
whether
other
 debt
outstanding
is
already
rated. Again. The
 regulatory
 goal
 would
 still
 be
 for
 financial
 institutions
 to
 have
 safe
 bond
 portfolios.

 This
 model
 has
the
 advantage
of
simultaneously
solving
 (i)
 the
free
 rider
problem
 because
 the
 issuer
still
 pays.
the
bond‐advisory
information
market
would
be
opened
to
new
ideas
‐

about
 business
models.
 12
 .

 2.
The
choice
would
be
based
on
the
agency’s
experience
at
 rating
 this
 type
 of
 debt.
Depending
 on
the
attributes
of
the
security
(i. Therefore.
some
 historical
 perspective
 on
how
 well
the
 agency
 rates
 this
 type
 of
 debt
relative
to
other
ratings
agencies.
subject
to
 that
constraint.


 3.
 and
 anything
 else
 that
 the
 institution
 considered
 relevant. From
 a
 sample
 of
 approved
 rating
 agencies.
methodologies.


an
amount
representing
10%
of
the
entire
market
 for
these
assets.
 the
 GSEs
 had
 leverage
 ratios
of
the
order
of
25
to
1.
 the
 GSEs
 hold
 some
 of
 the
 purchased
mortgages
as
investments.
 Fannie
 Mae
 and
 Freddie
 Mac.6! 4/=+5'!D5$%&'!! Background
 The
 primary
 function
 of
 the
 two
 government
 sponsored
 enterprises
 (GSEs).
the
GSEs
accept
some
regulatory
oversight
in
return
for
 an
 implicit
 government
 guarantee
 of
 support.
 with
 major
 consequences
 for
 the
 US
 mortgage
 markets
 and
 obvious
dire
consequences
for
the
real
economy.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
the
failure
of
the
GSEs
would
have
led
to
a
fire
sale
of
these
assets
that
would
in
turn
have
 infected
the
rest
of
the
financial
system.!1)#5+.
The
securitized
mortgages
are
sold
off
to
outside
investors
 with
 a
 guarantee
 of
 full
 payment
 of
 principal
 and
 interest.
By
2007.
 As
 a
 result.
even
though
the
GSEs’
portfolio
contained
a
 variety
 of
 risks.!.
by
owning
such
a
large
(and
levered)
portfolio
of
relatively
 illiquid
MBSs.
In
fact.
 The
 structure
 of
 the
 GSEs
leads
to
the
classic
moral
hazard
problem
in
which
the
lack
of
capital
market
discipline
and
cheap
 credit
provides
an
incentive
for
excessive
risk
taking.
The
second.
the
failure
of
the
GSEs
would
have
disrupted
the
firms’
 ongoing
 MBS
 issue/guarantee
 business..
as
one
of
the
largest
investors
in
 capital
markets
 with
notional
amount
positions
of
$1.
and.
help
provide
liquidity
to
the
secondary
market
by
 repurchasing
 the
 mortgage‐backed
 securities
 (MBS).
over
15%
of
their
own
 outstanding
 mortgage
portfolio
was
invested
in
non‐prime
assets.
it
is
reasonable
to
assume
that
the
mere
 size
of
the
GSEs
created
“froth”
and
“excess”
liquidity
in
the
market.
 the
 GSEs’
 activities
 are
 funded
 through
 “cheap”
 credit
 made
 available
 in
 capital
 markets
 under
 the
 presumed
 guarantee.!8'$9.
and
more
important.
 They
 are
 major
 enterprises
 and
 play
 an
 unquestionably
important
role
in
the
market
for
residential
mortgages.
 In
 addition.

 
 
 
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
 including
 nonprime
 mortgages
 and
 long‐maturity
 prime
 ones.
Though
private
institutions.
The
first
 was
their
investments
 into
the
subprime
and
 Alt‐A
areas.!:).
in
theory.
 Chapter
4:
Executive
Summary
 What
to
Do
About
the
Government
 Sponsored
Enterprises
 "#$%&'!()**++.
 13
 .2+!D&$'+!).!3)''&+#!4$2&)567/.
While
not
the
only
institutional
culprit
here.
 
 The
 GSEs
 retain
 a
 mortgage
 portfolio
 of
 $1.
holding
similar
assets.8
 trillion
 of
 existing
mortgages.
 55%
 of
 which
 is
 securitized.
First.
The
residential
mortgage
market
 is
 approximately
 10
 trillion
 dollars
 in
 size.
 effect
 was
to
 introduce
systemic
risk
 into
 the
system
 and
therefore
add
to
the
growing
financial
 crisis.
 the
 GSEs
 presented
 considerable
 counterparty
 risk
 to
 the
 system.
 The
 GSEs
had
two
 clear.$+<#+5=<5%&.
Second.38
trillion
and
$523
billion
in
 interest
rate
swaps
 and
 OTC
 derivatives
 respectively.
Third.
is
to
purchase
and
securitize
mortgages.
 This
systemic
risk
came
in
three
forms.
 similar
in
spirit
to
LTCM
in
the
Fall
of
1998.
negative
 influences
on
 the
financial
system
during
 the
current
crisis.5
 trillion
 and
 have
 securitized
 (and
 thus
 guaranteed
 the
 defaults
 of)
 $3.


 It
 seems
 hard
 to
 believe
 that
 this
 quantity
 of
 assets
 could
be
placed
as
whole
loans
within
the
banking
and
mortgage
lending
sectors.
 who
 will
 insure
 the
 insurers?
 Is
 there
 any
 way
 to
 credibly
 signal
 that
 the
 government
 would
 not
 bailout
 these
 private
institutions
in
times
of
a
crisis?

 Policy
Recommendations
 
 1.
of
course.
 even
 if
 a
 party
 were
 willing.
even
more
 serious.
 Over
 the
 past
 forty
 years.
what
is
the
appropriate
reform
to
be
followed?

Let
 us
consider
the
following
series
of
questions
and
answers
regarding
mortgages:
 1. If
securitized.
 Generally.
systemic
risk
due
to
the
moral
hazard
problem
of
the
GSEs
taking
risky
bets.
that
the
fears
of
a
systemic
meltdown
were
all
too
accurate. Should
mortgages
be
securitized
or
not?
 A
majority
of
the
current
outstanding
mortgages
are
securitized
and
spread
throughout
the
 worldwide
 investment
 community.
 a
 $4
 trillion
 investment
 community
 has
 arisen
 which
focuses
on
interest
rate
and
prepayment
risk
as
opposed
to
default
risk.
and..
 Moreover.
 Removing
 guarantees
 would
 cause
 a
 deadweight
 loss
 to
 all
 the
 human
capital
invested
thus
far.
 The
Issues
 It
is
now
clear. If
guaranteed.
should
the
guarantor
be
the
government
or
a
private
institution?

 There
are
several
obstacles
to
complete
privatization
 of
the
 guarantee
function. The
investor
function
of
the
GSEs
should
be
discontinued.
A
substantial
 amount
 of
 human
 capital
 (i.
But
in
order
to
reduce
the
moral
hazard
problem
the
programs
 should
now
operate
within
government
agencies.
should
the
principal
and
interest
be
guaranteed?
 While
there
is
room
for
securitization
both
with
and
without
guarantees.
 All
Rights
Reserved.e.
 some
 of
 which
 is
 also
 privately
 insured.
 
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
 systemic
 risk
 occurs
 very
 infrequently
 yet
 requires
 large
 amounts
 of
 capital
 on
 hand
 to
 address
 that
 rare
 eventuality.
and
that
the
GSE
 model
 ‐
 combining
 a
 public
 mission
 with
 an
 implicit
 guarantee
 and
 a
 profit
 maximizing
 strategy
 ‐
 is
 untenable.
 knowledge
 and
 training)
 and
 investment
 networks
 are
 devoted
 to
 this
 product.
approximately
68%
 of
 the
 MBS
 market
 is
 agency‐backed
 whereas
 32%
 is
 non‐agency.
 3.
 by
 definition.
 14
 .
 private
 institutions
 are
 not
 good
 insurers
 against
 systemic
 risk
 because.
Given
that
the
GSE
model
itself
is
flawed. The
GSE
firms
should
continue
their
mortgage
guarantee
and
securitization
programs
for
 conforming
mortgage
loans.
The
current
setup
leads
to
“froth”
in
 the
marketplace
such
as
the
support
for
weak
Alt‐A
and
subprime
loans.
 2.
 2.
in
a
format
parallel
to
the
current
Federal
 Housing
Administration
(FHA)
and
successful
GNMA
programs.


 asset
 management
 and
 securities)
 or
 alternatively
 5+%<>)'$/.! =0! *<.
Whether
it
was
Bear
Stearns.6+57.
 Chapter
5:
Executive
Summary
 Enhanced
Regulation
of
Large.
 managed
funds
and
insurance
companies)
covering
all
of
their
businesses.
regulation
by
function.
 all
 of
 the
 LCFIs
 bailed
 out
 by
 governments
 were
 rescued
 because
 the
 social
cost
of
their
failure
was
considered
unacceptable.
 requiring
 greater
 transparency
 for
 financial
 products.
 and
 poor
 long‐term
 share
 price
 performance
 suggest
 the
 opposite
conclusion.
 increased
risk‐exposure
and
conflicts
of
interest.

Banking
regulators
now
generally
regard
them
as
too‐big‐to‐fail
(TBTF).
 15
 .

 The
 expanding
 LCFI
 share
 of
 the
 US
 financial
 services
 market
 suggests
 that
 the
 beneficial
 effects
 of
 economies
 of
 scale
 and
 scope
 and
 related
 operating‐efficiencies
 outweigh
 the
 costs
 of
 complexity.
 If
 it
 continues.


 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.!4/0!F?!8C$'&.%/!D)>'+5! Background
 Deregulation
in
 the
1990s
gave
rise
to
a
new
 generation
of
what
the
Federal
Reserve
has
called
“large
 complex
 financial
 institutions”
 (LCFIs).
 investment
 banking.
 or
 charter
 (basically
 commercial
 banks.
 this
 public
 subsidy
 will
 create
 perverse
 incentives
 and
 major
 distortions
 in
 financial
 market
 competition
 in
 favor
 of
 LCFIs—and
 against
 financial
 intermediaries
 who
 have
 to
 survive
 on
 their
 own.
But
their
record
of
massive
credit
write‐offs.
The
 implicit
 public
 subsidy
 was
 there
 all
 along.0!8)<.'&/.
 All
Rights
Reserved.

 The
Issues
 Current
 discussions
 of
 regulatory
 reform
 center
 on
 redefining
 risk‐adjusted
 capital
 adequacy
 for
 financial
 intermediaries.
 broker‐dealers.
regulatory
 infractions.2'$/.
Complex
 Financial
Institutions
 -.
we
 may
very
well
be
back
in
yet
another
crisis
only
a
few
years
down
the
road.
 establishing
 a
 solid
 infrastructure
for
derivatives
trading.
 and
 ensure
 that
 firms
 chartered
 to
 business
 in
 these
 key
 functions
 maintain
 high
standards
and
conduct
themselves
appropriately.
 (insurance.

It
will
develop
the
depth
of
expertise
needed
to
understand
highly
specialized
 intermediation
 dynamics.
 and
 will
 surely
 be
 there
 going
 forward.
 The
 policy
 options
 for
 financial
 institutions
 include
 5+%<>)'$/.
stands
the
 best
chance
of
success.
creditors
who
bet
that
these
firms
were
too
big
to
fail
have
won
while
taxpayers
have
lost.
 Unless
 a
 new
 regulatory
approach
to
LCFIs
is
taken
up
while
the
current
crisis
has
captured
everyone’s
attention.
Citigroup
 or
AIG.
We
believe
that
for
the
vast
 majority
of
financial
firms—those
that
are
not
LCFIs—the
first
option.
FNMA.
 asset
 management
 and
 insurance.!).
and
otherwise
improving
the
financial
system’s
robustness
with
as
 little
 damage
 as
 possible
 to
 its
 efficiency
 and
 creativity.
 commercial
 banking.! =0! '0A+! /*! $.
 
 These
 are
 huge
 private
 sector
 enterprises
 engaged
 in
 a
 broad
 array
 of
 financial
 services
 including
 commercial
 banking.7'$'<'$/.
 repeated
 legal
 settlements.6!G.

 In
 today’s
 global
 financial
 crisis.


 we
 recommend
 the
 creation
 and
 empowerment
 of
 a
 dedicated
 regulator
 for
 LCFIs.
We
advocate
a
third
option
‐
a
 special.
using
information
collected
in
this
 role.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
Our
proposed
special
LCFI
regulator
would
be
responsible
 /.
 A
Different
Approach
to
Regulating
LCFIs
 We
believe
that
regulation
by
function
is
not
enough
in
the
case
of
LCFIs.
Of
equal
importance
the
LCFI
regulator.
 even
 if
 this
 can
 only
 be
 achieved
at
the
cost
of
reduced
growth
and
profitability.
 coupled
 to
 surcharges
 based
 on
 measurable
 systemic
risk
exposures.
The
dedicated
 U.>0
 for
 financial
 firms
 identified
 as
 such.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 This
 would
 require
 that
 LCFIs
 be
 identified
 as
 such
 and
 subjected
 to
 an
 enhanced
 level
 of
 regulation
 to
 ensure
 their
 safety
 and
 soundness.
 Such
pricing
may
enable
setting
a
fair
baseline
insurance
cost
or
premium
that
is
linked
to
the
asset
size
 and
 institution‐specific
 risk
 attributes
 of
 individual
 LCFIs.

 Most
importantly.
 but
 at
 the
 same
 time
 be
 familiar
 with
 the
 consequences
and
the
complex
and
network‐based
linkages
between
the
various
financial
activities
that
 arise
within
LCFIs
–
complexity
that
itself
could
lead
to
systemic
failure.
the
regulator
would
have
the
power
and
the
obligation
to
ensure
that
LCFIs
operate
 consistently
 with
 priority
 attention
 to
 the
 institution’s
 safety
 and
 soundness.
 Identification
 of
 those
 LCFIs
 to
 be
 subject
 to
 special
 regulation
 would
 be
 based
 on
 measures
 of
 size
 in
 combination
 with
 measures
 of
 complexity
 or
 interconnectedness.
 and
 would
 work
 closely
 with
 function‐based
 regulators
 responsible
for
all
other
financial
 intermediaries.
6+6$2)'+6!5+%<>)'/5!*/5!1FHG7.
 will
 be
 able
 to
 price
 more
 accurately
 the
 government
 guarantee
 that
 inevitably
 underpins
 LCFIs.S.
 and
 on
 avoiding
 many
 of
 the
 risk
 management
failures
and
governance
problems
that
 characterize
the
current
crisis.
 16
 .
 LCFI
regulator
 would
necessarily
have
 to
be
linked
as
seamlessly
as
possible
 to
his/her
counterparts
 in
 the
 Basel
 Accord
 participant
 countries
 so
 as
 to
 insure
 an
 effective
 level
 of
 global
 coordination
 and
 prevent
regulatory
arbitrage.
The
dedicated
LCFI
regulator
 would
 encompass
all
of
 the
 constituent
 functional
 areas
 of
 regulation‐by‐function.
 Why?
 Because
 LCFIs
 are
 both
 different
 in
 character
 from
 functional
 specialists
 and
 pose
 a
 much
 more
 insidious
threat
to
the
global
financial
system.

 Policy
Recommendations
 As
 discussions
 of
 regulatory
 reform
 go
 forward.
 The
 LCFI
 regulator
 would
 specifically
 focus
 on
 capturing
 key
 risk
 exposures
 and
 their
 interlinkages
 within
 the
 financial
 system.

!I5/#.

 Hedge
 funds
 have
 certainly
 been
 in
 the
 thick
 of
 the
 current
 financial
 crisis.
 and
 leverage
 means
 that
 their
 equity
 value.!3)''&+#!4$2&)567/.
 absent
 limited
 liability.

 The
immediate
policy
issues
are
the
following:
 • • • Should
 hedge
 funds
 be
 exempted
 from
 any
 of
 the
 financial
 system
 regulations
 aimed
 at
 managing
the
systemic
risk
in
the
financial
system
(and
the
associated
externalities)?

 Under
what
circumstances
should
hedge
funds
be
subject
to
additional
regulation?
 What
forms
should
the
additional
regulation
(if
any)
take?
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.!3)52$.
 or
subsets
of
 hedge
funds.!J)2A+52K0L.
(ii)
by
correcting
fundamental
mispricing
in
the
market.
 it
 was
 the
 collapse
 of
 two
 highly
 levered
 Bear
 Stearns
 hedge
 funds
 that
 initiated
 the
 collapse
 of
 the
 subprime‐ backed
collateralized
debt
obligations
(CDOs).
 this
 ignores
 the
 substantive
 advantage
 that
 banks
 have
 through
either
the
explicit
guarantee
of
deposit
insurance
or
the
implicit
“too‐big‐to‐fail”
guarantee.

Hedge
funds
have
the
ability
to
short
sell
assets.
hedge
funds.%BM$7'.

 Hedge
 funds
 add
 value
 to
 the
 financial
 system
 in
 a
 number
 of
 ways:
 (i)
 by
 providing
 liquidity
 to
 the
 market.
 
 However.
there
is
very
little
evidence
to
suggest
that
hedge
funds
caused
the
financial
crisis
or
 that
they
contributed
to
its
severity
 in
any
significant
way.!->+E).
In
fact.
 namely
 the
 ability
 to
 offer
 intermediation
 services
 in
 direct
 competition
 with
 regulated
 institutions
 like
 banks.
 At
first
glance.
 That
being
said.
 or
 make
 housing
 prices
 collapse
 so
 that
 subprime
 loans
 would
 default.
which
allows
them
to
 use
 leverage.
 For
 example.2&.!1)77+! @+6+57+.
 and
 (iv)
 by
 providing
 investors
 access
 to
 leverage
 and
 to
 investment
 strategies
 that
 perform
well.0!10.
 Chapter
6:
Executive
Summary
 Hedge
Funds
in
the
Aftermath
of
the
 Financial
Crisis
 8'+A&+.
But
hedge
funds
didn’t
cause
the
growth
in
the
subprime
 mortgage
 market.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 17
 .
may
still
generate
systemic
risk
that
imposes
externalities
on
the
financial
system.
not
regulating
hedge
funds
seems
patently
unfair.
(iii)
through
their
trading.

A
fund
 that
 is
 sufficiently
 large
 and
 levered
 (like
 Long
 Term
 Capital
 Management
 [LTCM]
 in
 1998)
 could
 generate
systemic
risk.
for
the
most
part.
 or
 force
 financial
institutions
(GSEs.
 which
runs
parallel
to
the
 more
standard
banking
system.
commercial
banks
and
broker‐dealers)
to
hold
$785
billion
worth
of
CDOs
on
 their
books..
by
increasing
 price
 discovery.
 can
 go
 negative.
unregulated.6+5!19<. ! Background
 The
available
data
show
a
remarkable
diversity
of
management
styles
under
the
"hedge
fund"
banner..!-.'&/.
as
it
allows
them
to
take
advantage
of
 regulatory
 arbitrage.


 The
Issues
 Hedge
funds
are.

 Hedge
funds
are
major
participants
in
the
so‐called
shadow
banking
system.


It
may
be
that
by
fixing
the
 cracks
 elsewhere
 in
 the
 system."B".
 18
 .(6*$'7".. Since
hedge
funds
do
not
receive
guarantees
from
the
government
and
so
are
not
subject
to
the
 moral
 hazard
 problems
 associated
 with
 such
 guarantees.#:
 2..(-"..* '(#$'$>$'%(#@* $<"(* $<.
 All
Rights
Reserved."B"&.B'()*$%*'75%#"*%("&%>#* &")>.
 any
 additional
 regulation
 of
 hedge
 funds
over
and
above
that
advocated
above
is
in
general
not
warranted..$"6*P.(-'..
 The
 largest
 concern
 relating
 to
 transparency
 is
 counterparty
 risk.(6*.
 Lack
 of
 transparency
 of
 financial
 institutions
 can
 magnify
 financial
 crises
 due
 to
 counterparty
 concerns.*-.
For
example.
respectively..4'()*A>(6#* ..##"$*5%#'$'%(#*.
 In
 the
 current
 crisis.
 4."T* A'(..

$<"*$&.*<"6)"*A>(6*A.
 both
 the
 commercial
 paper
 market
 (in
 August
 2007)
 and
 money
 market
 (in
 September
 2008)
 seized
 up
 when
 a
 managed
 fund
 in
 these
 markets
 stopped
 redemptions
 due
 to
 exposures
 to
 subprime
AAA‐rated
CDOs
and
Lehman
Brothers’
short‐term
debt.A$"&*0.
SIVs.$'%(*.
since
bad
performance
(and
lack
of
transparency)
by
a
fund
may
lead
to
 a
run
on
the
fund’s
assets
under
management.
in
order
to
help
regulators
measure
and
manage
 possible
systemic
risk.T"6R*..#*#>-<:**We
also
make
several
suggestions
for
 cases
 in
which
a
subset
of
funds
(“systemic‐risk”
subset)
together
 imposes
 externalities
on
the
 financial
system.
and
hedge
funds)
are
subject
to
bank‐ like
 runs
 on
 their
 assets. Managed
funds
(mutual
funds..

The
exception
is
when
 hedge
funds
impose
externalities
on
the
financial
system.*'A*.6*5"&A%&7.$'%(*%(*$<"*<"6)"*A>(6*-%77>('$1.
<"6)"*A>(6#*P%A*#>AA'-'"($*#'Q"R*#<%>.*#1#$"7'-E&'#U*#>0#"$*7.0%>$*0%$<*$<"'&*.
 e.
A
minimal
condition
would
be
that.#* .(*0"*&".$'%(*$<.-<"6*4'$<%>$*<.)"#*'(B"#$%&#*A&%7*4'$<6&. A
 more
 controversial
 question
 is
 whether
 special
 regulation
 is
 needed
 for
 hedge
 funds
 with
 respect
 to
 public
 transparency
 of
 asset
 positions
 and
 leverage
 (e.
 3.
 and
 these
 counterparty
issues
are
most
relevant
with
OTC
derivatives.(#5.
 These
 runs
 can
 trigger
 systemic
 liquidity
 spirals.
which
must
be
balanced
against
the
benefits
obtained
from
the
systemic
 risk
reduction.&)"* -%75.
money
market
funds.$"6* .6*0"*&"S>'&"6*$%*5&%B'6"*&")>.g..1*(""6*&")>.Policy
Recommendations
 
 1. By
the
proprietary
nature
of
their
trading.
 along
 the
 lines
 of
 more
 Form
13F‐like
filings).1*'(A%&7.$* A>(6* (""6#* $%* 0"* $&".$%&#* 4'$<*&")>.$*6'#-%>&.)"*.* #1#$"7'-*'(#$'$>$'%(*$%*0"*&")>.
 creating
 a
 clearing
 house/exchange
 structure
 for
 large
 OTC
 derivative
 markets.##* %A* .
Any
such
regulation
would
impose
costs
on
the
 hedge
fund
investors.&"(-1*)%.
3"6)"*A>(6#*'(* .
hedge
funds
are
not
very
transparent
to
the
market.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business..&*.g.#*'($%* $<"* -.
We
propose
a
market‐oriented
solution
that
weighs
this
balance..
This
decision
involves
balancing
the
benefits
and
costs
to
hedge
funds
and
 investors.(6*$.


 the
 traditional
 board
 model
 suitable
 for
 industry—characterized
 by
 infrequent
 meetings
 and
 a
 landscape
that
is
not
 likely
to
undergo
fast
and
dramatic
changes—is
not
entirely
suitable.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 19
 .
 the
 ever‐increasing
 complexity
 of
 LCFIs
 has
 rendered
 weak. With
respect
to
Boards.
Since
there
are
several
impediments
–
political
as
well
as
 practical
–
to
implementing
our
recommendation
uniformly
at
all
banks.
 the
 high
 leverage
 they
 have
 undertaken
 and
 the
 failure
 of
 their
 internal
 risk
 management
 practices
also
suggest
weakness
and
failure
of
regulatory
governance.
 For
 LCFIs.!Q+C+>! Background
 The
large.$*+5!F)5A+.

 Perhaps.'+5.
 even
 more
 importantly.!3)''&+#! 4$2&)567/.
 to
 the
 extent
 feasible.!J/7+!(/&.!(+.!8<.!4).
however. On
 the
 regulatory
 front.!3)5'$!8<=5)&C).
 Chapter
7:
Executive
Summary
 Corporate
Governance
in
the
Modern
 Financial
Sector
 :$5)>!:?!-2&)50).
Can
they.

Although
there
is
mounting
evidence
pointing
to
weaknesses
in
equity
governance
of
these
 firms.6)5)C.
 our
 most
 important
 policy
 recommendation
 is
 that.
commensurate
with
the
level
of
 risk
of
these
institutions
–
and
on
a
continual
basis.0)C.

Thus
it
has
 become
 increasingly
 difficult
 for
 LCFI
 boards
 to
 grasp
 fully
 the
 swiftness
 and
 forms
 by
 which
 the
 risk
 profiles
of
these
institutions
can
be
altered
by
traders
and
securities
desks.


 The
Issues
 Can
the
regulatory
governance
of
LCFIs
be
altered
in
some
robust
way
that
reins
in
their
risk‐taking
to
 efficient
levels?
 • Can
boards
and
regulators
who
do
not
interact
on
a
daily
basis
with
the
relevant
profit
centers
 of
 LCFIs
 ever
 be
 expected
 to
 achieve
 desirable
 outcomes
 based
 purely
 on
 monitoring
 and
 questioning?

 We
believe
not.

The
presence
of
such
guarantees
–
often
un‐priced
and
at
best
mis‐priced
–
has
blunted
the
 edge
of
the
debt
monitoring
that
would
otherwise
exert
an
important
market
discipline
on
risk‐taking
by
 these
firms.
This
 highly‐levered
nature
makes
them
prone
to
excessive
leverage‐
and
risk‐taking
tendencies.
a
potential
mechanism
for
strengthening
regulatory
governance
may
be
 to
 require
 that
 the
 board
 of
 directors
 of
 these
 LCFIs
 include
 a
 regulator
 and
 one
 or
 more
 prominent
subordinated
debt
holders.2+
 in
the
form
 of
judicious
design
of
incentives
and
compensation
is
set
up
correctly
to
achieve
this
objective?
 Policy
Recommendations
 1.!N)M$+5!O)=)$E.%)5)9).
 the
 role
 of
 governance
 from
 existing
 shareholders
 and
 non‐executive
 board
 members.).)>!%/M+5.

By
and
large
 LCFIs
 also
 have
 explicit
 deposit
 insurance
 protection
 and
 almost
 always
 an
 implicit
 too‐big‐to‐fail
 guarantee.
 if
 not
 impotent.
complex
financial
institutions
(LCFIs)
are
highly
levered
entities
with
over
90%
leverage.!P$')..'+5...
ensure
that
 $.
an
alternative
proposal
 is
 that
 all
 independent
 board
 members
 be
 educated
 in
 the
 operational
 details
 and
 complex
 products
of
the
LCFIs.

 2.
regulators
should
price
the
guarantees
right
–
that
is.
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.


 All
Rights
Reserved.
 c.
Maximizing
the
latter
when
debt
is
not
fairly
 or
continuously
priced
induces
excessive
leverage‐
and
risk‐taking
incentives.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
which
works
to
induce
perverse
 risk‐taking.
Given
that
 financial
firms
seem
to
be
caught
up
in
a
bad
equilibrium
where
a
firm
attempting
to
implement
 a
more
efficient
long‐term
compensation
plan
fears
that
it
will
lose
its
employees
to
other
firms
 that
do
not. Compensation
structures
should
induce
management
to
maximize
the
total
value
of
the
 enterprise
(for
example. Existing
compensation
structures
seem
too
short‐term.
 regulatory
 arbitrage.
 claw
 backs.
however.

 We
do
not
propose.
 incentives.
 and
 bonus
 pools
 tied
 to
 long‐term
 profits.

Rather. Return
on
assets
should
be
benchmarked
against
a
cost
of
capital
that
reflects
not
just
 the
 cost
 in
 good
 times
 when
 guarantees
 render
 the
 cost
 of
 debt
 essentially
 flat
 and
 invariant
 to
 risk.
perhaps
this
may
be
the
best
service
regulators
can
provide.>0!through
regulatory
arbitrage.
 An
 extension
 of
 this
 practice
would
be
to
adjust
the
cost
of
debt
to
the
“true”
(or
without
guarantee)
cost
so
 that
management
and
traders
are
not
creating
value
/.
 but
 also
 in
 bad
 times.
 we
 recommend
 that
 regulators
 and
 boards
 pay
 special
 attention
 to.
 when
 these
 firms
 are
 forced
 to
 make
 shareholder‐value
 diluting
 equity
 or
 subordinated
 debt
 issuances.
 would
 all
 be
 features
that
implement
optimal
top‐management
structures.
 Restricted
 stock.
return
on
assets
–
ROA)
and
not
just
the
equity
value
(return
on
 equity
–
ROE)
as
is
commonly
the
practice.
 capital
 budgeting
 practices
 and
 performance
 assessment
 standards
for
both
top
 management
and
traders
alike.
 and
 help
 improve.
we
have
 several
concrete
proposals:

 a.
 20
 .

 b.3.
 and
 to
 an
 extent.
On
this
front.
we
suggest
that
they
seek
 relatively
un‐intrusive
ways
of
helping
the
industry
coordinate
its
efforts
in
this
area. On
 the
 internal
 governance
 front.
that
the
 regulators
mandate
compensation
structures
at
micro
levels.
 
 We
 propose
 that
 LCFIs
 should
 use
 more
 long‐term
 contracts
 that
 include
 deferred
 compensation
 features.


This
problem
has
been
blamed
for
perverse
incentives
facing
key
employees
in
the
 financial
industry
in
areas
like
sales
and
trading.
Employees
 are
 encouraged
 to
 (i)
 maximize
 current
 compensation
 to
 themselves.
In
 that
 sense
 the
 system
 actually
 works
 pretty
 well.
has
led
to
an
epidemic
of
“fake
alpha”
 in
 the
 industry
 –
 that
 is.
Since
it
is
impossible
to
 determine
these
until
some
time
has
passed.
As
Paul
Volcker
noted
last
April.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 compensation
 based
 on
 short‐term
 excess
 returns
 through
 the
 current
 bonus
pool. To
 the
 extent
 that
 the
 pay
 packages
 of
 senior
 management
 deviate
 materially
 from
 the
 long‐term
 financial
 interests
 of
 shareholders.
 but
 rather
 should
address
the
difficulties
investors
have
in
perceiving
risks
and
accurately
valuing
the
equity
of
 financial
firms.
 and
 powerful
 signals
 are
 sent.6!G.
 Reward
 and
 punishment
 are
 to
 some
 extent
 aligned.
get
rewarded.
 1.
So
the
 real
 issue
 may
 not
 require
 the
 wholesale
 redesign
 of
 top
 management
 compensation.
after
the
fact.
The
defenders
of
privately
determined
approaches
to
 compensation
in
financial
institutions
might
wish
otherwise.
 any
 overcompensation
 problem
 is
 a
 failure
 of
 corporate
 governance.
 21
 .
inexorably
intertwined
with
re‐stabilization
of
the
financial
system.
securitization
and
financial
engineering.
So
some
of
 the
top
 executives
in
 the
firms
 that
melted‐down
have
 lost
 fortunes
along
with
 their
 taxpayers.
 it
 often
 seems
 to
 involve
 massive
 exit
 packages
 (rewards
 for
 failure)
 or
 executives
 liquidating
shares
that
turn
out.!).
but
this
is
now
a
high‐profile
political
issue
in
the
 US
and
elsewhere.
 taxpayers
 naturally
 feel
 that
 they
 ought
 to
 have
 a
 say
 in
 how
 such
 people.
 now
 in
 publicly
supported
private
institutions.
however.
to
have
 been
overvalued
at
the
time
of
sale.
 Chapter
8:
Executive
Summary
 Rethinking
Compensation
in
Financial
 Firms
 3)''&+#!4$2&)567/.
Performance
over
the
current
accounting
period
cannot
take
into
account
lower
returns
 or
losses
in
subsequent
periods
for
which
current
activities
are
responsible.
 possibly
 at
 the
 expense
 of
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
compensation
based
on
current
reported
earnings
may

 not
be
justified.
 together
with
a
long‐established
bonus‐pool
reward
system.
When
the
 system
 fails.%/!D)>'+5! Background
 The
 unprecedented
 government
 bailout
 of
 financial
 markets
 and
 firms
 in
 the
 current
 crisis
 has
 forced
 executive
compensation
in
banking
and
finance
into
 the
open.
“The
bright
 new
financial
system—for
all
its
rich
rewards
and
unimaginable
wealth
for
some—has
failed
the
test
of
the
 marketplace
by
repeatedly
risking
a
cascading
breakdown
of
the
system
as
a
whole.”
Taxpayers
wonder
how
 highly
paid
banking
“talent”
could
have
been
instrumental
in
creating
a
financial
disaster
of
epic
proportions.
It
is
important
to
note.
 It
 may
 in
 fact
 be
 possible
 that
 the
 financial
 industry
 has
 a
 better
senior
management
pay‐for‐performance
track
record
than
many
other
industries.

 And
 having
 been
 forced
 to
 take
 equity
 stakes
 in
 most
 of
 the
 largest
 US
 and
 foreign
 financial
 firms
 and
 guarantee
 their
 debt.

 The
Issues
 Two
 issues
 appear
 to
 stand
 out
 –
 compensation
 of
 top
 management
 and
 compensation
 of
 key
 cohorts
 of
 “high
performance”
employees.
with
at
least
some
minimum
retention
period
required.

 2.
that
the
top
executives
of
banking
and
financial
firms
 tend
to
be
paid
largely
in
shares. It
has
been
suggested
that
the
dynamics
of
the
market
for
high‐performance
finance
professionals.


It
is
in
bad
times
that
the
wheat
is
separated
from
the
chaff.
since
most
people
generate
decent
to
spectacular
 returns.
the
financial
crisis
of
2007‐2008.
 3.
(ii)
maximize
the
use
of
leverage
without
regard
to
its
impact
on
bankruptcy
risk
of
the
 firm.
 2.
 22
 .
Because
the
risk
management
systems
of
the
firms
treated
these
AAA
CDOs
 as
 essentially
 riskless. Greater
disclosure
and
transparency
of
compensation
practices. Given
the
fluid
market
for
financial
talent..
failed
senior
 executives
who
are
 ejected
 might
confront
a
minimum
36
 month
holding
period
for
the
shares
they
take
with
them. For
 senior
 management.
and
(iii)
report
to
senior
management
and
regulators
that
all
is
well
when
in
fact
it
is
not.
 banks
 and
 broker/dealers)
 held
 48%
 of
 the
 $1.
 the
 CDO
 desks
 booked
 the
 premiums
 as
 instant
 profit
 (which
 had
 a
 spread
 roughly
 double
that
of
other
AAA‐rated
securities)
and
thereby
receiving
big
bonuses
with
the
incentive
to
load
up
on
 them
–
hence.
and
happy
days
are
here—again—leaving
the
taxpayer
to
pick
up
 the
 tab
 once
 again
 in
 the
 next
 financial
 crisis.
Unless
there
is
 some
 consensus
 on
 best
 practices.
the
combination
of
the
rising
tide
and
leverage
makes
it
 impossible
to
tell
good
producers
from
bad
ones.
This
is
puzzling
because
the
whole
purpose
behind
securitization
 is
to
transfer
the
credit
risk
away
from
financial
institutions
to
capital
market
investors.<7RC)><7
approach.e.
 note
 that
 financial
 firms
 (i.
in
order
to
apply
greater
market
discipline
to
top
management
pay
 practices.
 In
 other
 words.
So
compensation
should
have
a
 multi‐year
structure.

 
 To
 understand
 how
 this
 point
 is
 relevant
 for
 the
 current
 financial
 crisis.
In
 good
times.
 Policy
Recommendations
 It
 would
 be
 surprising
 if
 financial
 firms
 –
 alongside
 the
 current
 epidemic
 of
 reduced
 or
 forfeited
 top
 management
 bonuses
 as
 a
 result
 of
 collapsed
 business
 conditions
 –
 do
 not
 start
 to
 think
 through
 compensation
approaches
more
closely
aligned
to
risk
exposure
and
shareholder
interest.
competition
intensifies.
 4.
an
interesting
idea
is
 the
 =/.
no
single
firm
can
get
very
far
on
its
own.
By
holding
onto
such
 large
 amounts
 of
 the
 AAA‐rated.
with
a
rising
tide
lifting
all
boats.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 these
 desks
 were
 taking
 huge
 asymmetric
 bets
 which
 would
 payout
 in
 most
 periods
 albeit
 with
 large
 exposure
 to
 a
 significant
economy‐wide
shock.
not
necessarily
major
retargeting
of
 top
management
compensation.shareholders.
with
bad
performances
subtracting
from
the
bonus
pool
in
the
same
way
that
 good
performances
add
to
it.65
 trillion
 worth
 of
 AAA‐rated
 collateralized
 debt
 obligations
(CDOs)
of
non‐prime
mortgages.
 1.
 Consequently.
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
 longer
 stock
 holding
 periods
 and
 stricter
 forfeiture
 rules
 would
 probably
 make
sense
 –
for
 example.
 non‐agency‐backed
 CDOs.
 we
 advocate
 a
 “convoy
 approach”
 whereby
the
key
financial
firms
that
dominate
global
markets
agree
on
a
basic
code
of
best
practice
 for
compensating
high‐performance
risk‐taking
employees.
 the
 GSEs.
 the
 CDO
 desks
 of
 firms
 were
 for
 all
 economic
 purposes
 writing
 deep
 out‐of‐the‐money
 put
 options
 on
 the
 housing
 market.
individual
experiments
will
surely
fail
as
business
 picks
up. For
high‐performance
“risk‐taking”
employees.
 and
 the
 industry
 moves
 in
 tandem
 toward
 a
 new
 and
 more
 rational
way
of
compensating
its
key
performers.


less
extreme.!40).


 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
First.
 market
 illiquidity
 may
 render
 fair
 values
 difficult
 to
 measure.
These
parties
typically
advocate
one
of
two
alternatives:
either
abandoning
fair
value
accounting
 and
returning
to
some
form
of
amortized
cost
accounting
or.
unrealized
 losses
 recognized
 under
 fair
 value
 accounting
 may
 reverse
 over
 time.
the
answer
 is
 yes.! Background
 
The
practical
applicability
of
fair
value
accounting
has
been
tested
by
the
severely
illiquid
and
otherwise
 disorderly
 markets
 for
 subprime
 and
 some
 other
 positions
 during
 the
 ongoing
 credit
 crunch.
all
of
these
criticisms
are
overstated
and
do
not
acknowledge
 the
far
more
severe
limitations
of
the
advocated
alternative
accounting
measurement
approaches.
 Second.
 Such
 suppression
 of
 critical
 information
 would
 prolong
 the
 price
 and
 resources
allocation
adjustment
processes
that
are
necessary
to
put
the
current
crisis
behind
us.
 This
 fact
 has
led
various
parties
to
raise
three
main
potential
criticisms
of
fair
value
accounting.
 Third.



 
 2.
 fair
 value
 accounting
 has
 its
 limitations.
While
 each
of
the
potential
 criticisms
of
 fair
value
accounting
contains
some
truth.
The
relevant
questions
for
policymakers
to
ask
are:

 1.
 the
FASB
 can
provide
 additional
guidance
about
when
market
illiquidity
is
so
great
that
firms
may
estimate
fair
values
 using
internal
models
instead
of
observable
but
low
quality
market
information
and
also
about
 how
to
estimate
illiquidity
risk
premia.
 both
 conceptual
 and
 practical.
 because
 these
 alternative
 approaches
 invariably
 suppress
 the
 reporting
 of
 some
 or
 all
 unrealized
 gains
 and
 losses
 and
 thereby
 reduce
 firms’
 incentives
 for
 voluntary
 disclosure.

 The
Issues
 Like
 any
 other
 accounting
 system.
 Chapter
9:
Executive
Summary
 Fair
Value
Accounting:
Policy
Issues
 Raised
by
the
Credit
Crunch
 8'+A&+.
 firms
 reporting
 unrealized
 losses
 under
 fair
 value
 accounting
 may
 yield
 adverse
 feedback
 effects
 that
 cause
 further
 deterioration
 of
 market
 prices
 and
 increase
 the
 overall
 risk
 of
 the
 financial
 system
 (“systemic
 risk”).
altering
fair
value
accounting
 requirements
to
reduce
 the
amount
of
firms’
reported
losses.
 yielding
 overstated
 or
 unreliable
 reported
 losses.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 23
 . Can
the
FASB
improve
FAS
157’s
guidance
regarding
fair
value
measurement
to
cope
better
with
 illiquid
or
otherwise
disorderly
 markets?
 
Once
again. Does
 fair
 value
 accounting
 provides
 more
 useful
 information
 to
 market
 participants
 than
 the
 alternative
 accounting
 measurement
 approaches
 (generally
 some
 form
 of
 amortized
 cost
 accounting)?
 The
 answer
 is
 yes.

The
FASB
and
SEC
should
require
firms
to
 make
additional
 mandatory
disclosures
and
strongly
 encourage
them
to
make
additional
voluntary
disclosures
about
their
unrealized
fair
value
gains
 and
losses
and
how
they
have
resulted
from
market
illiquidity.
 2.
and
Enforcement
 Act
of
1989
and
the
Federal
Deposit
Insurance
Corporation
Improvement
Act
of
1991.
 24
 .*N".
and
various
other
direct
actions.
exploit
deposit
insurance.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.* .%)12*N<"*N<&'A$*G&'#'#



* 
 The
thrift
crisis
began
when
interest
rates
rose
during
the
first
oil
crisis/recession
in
1973‐1975.
causing
 thrifts’
fixed‐rate
mortgage
assets
to
experience
large
economic
losses
that
were
not
recognized
under
 amortized
cost
accounting.
activities
that
significantly
worsened
the
ultimate
cost
of
the
crisis—until
the
 crisis
was
effectively
addressed
through
the
Financial
Institutions
Reform.'()*3'#$%&'-..(..
Because
these
economic
losses
were
unrecognized.
Similarly
direct
 policymaking
is
needed
now. how
to
measure
illiquidity
risk
premia..
 All
Rights
Reserved. The
FASB
should
provide
additional
guidance
about
 a.
 3.
bank
regulators
and
 other
economic
policymakers
allowed
the
crisis
to
fester
for
a
decade
and
a
half—effectively
 encouraging
thrifts
to
invest
in
risky
assets. when
 market
 illiquidity
 is
 so
 great
 that
 firms
 may
 estimate
 fair
 values
 using
 internal
 models
instead
of
observable
but
low
quality
market
information
and
 b.
and
in
some
cases
even
commit
 fraud
in
the
meantime.* Policy
Recommendations
 
 1.
These
acts
 required
troubled
thrifts
to
be
shut
down
with
their
assets
sold
through
the
Resolution
Trust
 Corporation.
Recovery.
and
it
must
not
be
deterred
by
throwing
an
accounting
cloak
over
very
real
 and
sizeable
problems.
prohibited
regulatory
forbearance.*. Policymakers
should
support
existing
fair
value
accounting
requirements
and
their
extension
to
 all
financial
instruments.


forwards/futures
and
swaps.
exchange
rates.
 In
 addition.
government’s
bailout
plan.
In
the
OTC
market.
and
from
revealing
in
early
2007
declines
in
values
 of
subprime‐backed
assets.! Background
 Derivatives
are
financial
contracts
whose
value
is
derived
from
some
underlying
asset.
in
particular.K.
 (ii)
 price
 discovery.
The
more
 common
forms
of
these
contracts
include
options.0!10.
These
assets
can
 include
equities.
 25
 .
 what
 the
values
are
 of
such
 contracts.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 credit
 default
 swaps
 (CDS).
bonds.
 where
 it
 is
 concentrated.
 For
 example.
 the
 derivative
 scapegoat.
 the
 benefits
 of
 derivatives
 fall
 into
 the
 areas
 of
 (i)
 hedging
 and
 risk
 management.
 The
 most
 important
 principle
 underlying
 the
 regulation
 of
 derivatives
 must
 encircle
 two
 primary
 issues:
 (i)
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
residential
and
commercial
mortgages.
 CDSs
 and
 other
 credit
 derivatives
 have
 played
 a
 very
 important
 role
 in
 disseminating
 information
 to
 both
 the
 public
 and
 to
 regulators:
 from
 judging
 the
 quality
 of
 financial
 firm’s
 bankruptcy
 prospects
 in
 a
 remarkably
 prescient
 way.
so
what
went
wrong
this
time?

 The
 problems
 that
 arose
 were
 not
 associated
 with
 all
 derivatives.
 The
Issues

 For
over
30
years
derivatives
markets
functioned
very
well.)2&+C!I5+.
 bonds
 and
 mortgages
shutdown
 in
the
summer
of
2007.
having
 grown
to
 well
 over
 $50
 trillion
 in
 notional
 amounts
 in
 a
 short
 period
 of
 time.
and
(ii)
 how
they
were
used
by
some
financial
institutions
to
increase
their
exposure
to
certain
asset
classes.
 but
 primarily
 with
 over‐the‐counter
 (OTC)
derivatives
and.
 CDSs
 enabled
 lenders
 to
 hedge
 their
 risk
 and
 offer
 loans.
And.
the
issue
should
 not
be
with
the
derivatives
as
an
instrument.2&!).
A
considerable
portion
 of
 financial
 innovation
 over
 the
 last
 30
 years
 has
 come
 from
 the
 emergence
 of
 derivative
 markets.
 and
 (iii)
 enhancement
 of
 liquidity.
 because
 contracts
 are
 bilateral.
we
still
do
not
have
a
handle.
Using
the
CDS
market.
 and
 especially
 the
 subprime
 CDOs
 on
 which.
 to
 this
 date.
a
number
of
financial
institutions
were
left
holding
 large
 loan
portfolios.
even
then.6!3)''&+#! 4$2&)567/.
commodities.'&/..
 Generally.
 this
 effect
was
 amplified
 by
 the
 complexity
 of
 credit
 derivatives.
 has
 played
 some
 positive
 roles.
the
newer
credit
derivative
market.+5.
 When
 the
 securitization
 market
 for
 loans.
 Double
counting
of
contracts
aside.
 from
 providing
 credit
 risk
 estimates
 that
 were
central
to
the
U.
 Chapter
10:
Executive
Summary
 Derivatives
‐
The
Ultimate
Financial
 Innovation
 :$5)>!:?!-2&)50).

 Each
financial
institution
and
market
participant
will
act
in
their
own
interest
to
manage
their
risk/return
 tradeoff.
some
of
these
financial
institutions
smartly
hedged
out
their
risk
 exposure.
 Yet
 there
 was
 a
 complete
 lack
 of
 transparency
about
the
underlying
exposures
of
financial
institutions
to
this
market.!3+.!4/=+5'!P.
 These
 actions
 may
 not
 take
 into
 account
 the
 spillover
 risk
 throughout
 the
 system.!-.
 and
so
forth.
In
 the
current
 crisis.
but
with
(i)
the
way
they
were
traded
and
cleared.
the
CDS
and
CDO
markets
are
nevertheless
huge.
 no
 one
 knows
 precisely
 what
 the
 total
 exposure
 is.
 Even
 in
 the
 current
 financial
 crisis.%>+.


 The
 TRACE
 system
 is
 a
 good
 model
 and
 has
 been
quite
successful.
 in
particular
CDS’s.
what
reporting
requirements
should
be
in
place?



 Policy
Recommendations
 
 1.
 One‐off
 OTC
 transactions
 could
be
exempted.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
 and
 (ii)
 capital
 erosion.
 This
 is
 a
 feature
 of
 most
 markets
 and
 is
 now
 a
 feature
 of
 the
 corporate
 bond
 market
 which
 was
 hitherto
 entirely
 OTC
 but
 now
 has
 trade‐level
 disclosure
 to
 TRACE.
can
cause
the
financial
system
to
break
down.
what
arrangements
 (regulations)
should
be
considered?
 Given
the
opaque
nature
of
these
markets.
trade‐level
information
for
some
OTC
markets.
There
 would
be
no
 need
 to
 reveal
 who
 is
 trading
 or
 the
 amount
 traded
 above
 a
 certain
 level.
 if
 large
 and
 concentrated
 in
 institutions
 that
 provide
 liquidity
 to
 the
 financial
 system.
 
 With
 appropriate
 collateral
 and
 margin
 requirements.


 The
policy
issues
are
therefore
as
follows:
 ‐ ‐ ‐ Should
the
current
“no
regulation”
status
of
OTC
derivatives
be
changed?

 Given
the
potential
systemic
risk
of
credit
derivatives.
in
particular
CDSs.
 All
Rights
Reserved.counterparty
credit
risk
exposure
which
can
 generate
illiquidity
and
can
cause
markets
to
break
down.
 26
 .
Jurisdictional
issues
need
to
be
resolved. Since
they
have
the
same
economic
value.
 2.
on
volume
and
prices
seems
a
reasonable
requirement.
 3.
 the
 Clearing
 House
 or
 Exchange
 structures
 could
 have
 little
 to
 no
 counterparty
 credit
risk.
 allowing
 systemically
 important
 exposures
 to
 be
 built
 up
 without
 sufficient
 capital
 to
 mitigate
 associated
 risks.
 Note
 that
 the
 main
 reason
for
systemic
risk
in

OTC
markets
is
that
bilaterally
set
collateral
and
margin
requirements
 in
OTC
trading
do
not
take
account
of
the
counterparty
risk
externality
that
each
trade
imposes
 on
 the
 rest
 of
 the
 system. To
increase
transparency
throughout
the
system.
there
is
no
reason
why
regulation
of
OTC
derivatives
 should
 not
 be
 of
 a
 similar
 nature
 to
 those
 traded
 on
 an
 exchange. OTC
 markets
 that
 grow
 “sufficiently
 large”
 should
 be
 migrated
 to
 either
 Clearing
 House
 or
 Exchange
 market
 structures
 –
 the
 CDS
 market
 being
 one
 prime
 candidate.


but
once
all
the
offsetting
bilateral
trades—invisible
to
the
outsider—were
netted
out.

But
the
terms
are
not
standardized
and
no
 account
is
taken
of
the
risk
externality
by
which
credit
enhancement
for
one
deal
affects
the
risk
 exposures
of
other
market
participants.
the
Fed
and
the
Treasury
 orchestrated
a
bailout
of
Bear
Stearns
because
it
was
"too
interconnected"
to
other
financial
firms
 through
its
extensive
and
complex
network
of
bilateral
OTC
contracts
to
be
allowed
to
fail.0!10.

The
 serious
consequences
of
letting
a
systemically
important
firm
fail
became
all
too
apparent
when
 Lehman
Brothers
had
to
file
for
bankruptcy
and
the
credit
markets
responded
by
freezing
up.!3)5'$! 8<=5)&C).'&/.
and
had
 to
be
bailed
out
after
a
credit
rating
downgrade
precipitated
collateral
calls
that
it
could
not
meet.&$1*!'#U
 CDS
and
other
OTC
contracts
deal
with
counterparty
credit
risk
by
setting
(privately
negotiated)
 collateral
requirements
for
both
parties
to
the
deal. N&.
 only
about
$6
billion
ultimately
changed
hands.
 Chapter
11:
Executive
Summary
 Centralized
Clearing
for
Credit
 Derivatives
 :$5)>!:?!-2&)50).

In
 large
part
this
is
because
these
relatively
new
products
are
traded
in
bilateral
transactions
over‐the‐counter
 (OTC).&"(-1*** The
market
for
CDS
provides
a
clear
example
of
how
lack
of
transparency
makes
risk
assessment
 difficult.
 Three
Levels
of
Centralized
Clearing
 We
 feel
 that
 when
 an
 OTC
 derivatives
 market
 becomes
 large
 and
 important
 enough
 to
 have
 a
 significant
 impact
on
the
overall
financial
system
it
needs
to
have
centralized
clearing
in
order
to
aggregate
information
 on
 outstanding
 deals
 and
 risk
 exposures
 for
 the
 benefit
 of
 regulatory
 authorities
 and
 other
 market
 participants.
about
$400
billion
of
CDS
were
presented
for
 settlement.


 The
Issues
 
 1.
became
clear
in
the
case
of
AIG.
 unlike
 other
 major
 financial
 derivatives
 that
 are
 traded
 on
 exchanges.
 
 OTC
 contracts
 can
 be
 more
 flexible
 than
 standardized
 exchange‐traded
 derivatives.
including
the
fact
 that
the
OTC
environment
offers
almost
no
transparency
regarding
the
counterparties'
overall
risk
 exposure. G%>($"&5.


 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.!H$%>+#7L$.
 All
Rights
Reserved.!8'+A&+.
mainly
Credit
Default
Swaps
(CDS)
and
Collateralized
Debt
Obligations
(CDOs).
 27
 .

In
March
2008.%>+.
 but
 they
 suffer
 from
 greater
 counterparty
 and
 operational
risks.(#5.!4/=+5'!P.

The
shortcomings
of
this
arrangement.
as
well
as
less
transparency.2&.
which
had
accumulated
a
huge
exposure
to
CDS.
 2.

Evaluating
and
managing
counterparty
credit
risk
for
 CDS
is
a
big
problem
with
systemic
implications.
 
 Three
 different
 types
 of
 central
 clearing
 offer
 different
 levels
 of
 market
 integration
 and
 transparency.!-.0)C! Background
 Credit
derivatives.
have
been
 under
great
stress
during
the
sub‐prime
financial
crisis
and
have
contributed
significantly
to
its
severity.
Following
the
bankruptcy
of
Lehman
Brothers.



This
kind
of
clearing
facility
would
greatly
 reduce
counterparty
risk
in
the
market.".
like
CDO
tranches.()"
 
The
most
centralized
form
of
market
organization
would
be
for
trading
to
move
to
a
formal
 exchange. M"&'B.

 We
favor
this
form
of
centralized
clearing
over
a
pure
OTC
market
structure
or
a
registry
for
CDS
and
 most
other
significant
derivatives.
 28
 .
 
 This
 would
 greatly
 reduce
 counterparty
 risk
and
further
improve
market
transparency.


We
therefore
feel
that
the
strongest
public
policy
need
in
the
area
of
 OTC
derivatives
is
to
require
centralized
clearing
for
all
systemically
important
derivatives.. G.
 All
Rights
Reserved.


 2.*G%>($"&5.

A
Registry
could
provide
efficiency
gains
by
both
holding
collateral
for
 the
counterparties
and
facilitating
the
transfers
of
funds
among
institutions.

Deals
would
still
be
set
up
in
 bilateral
negotiation.
broad
market
 participation
including
retail
traders.
but
once
registered
with
the
Clearing
House.
so
it
is
not
suitable
for
thinly
traded
instruments. M".
to
the
public
in
a
form
that
balances
the
need
 for
counterparties
to
be
able
to
evaluate
each
other's
risk
exposures
against
firms'
proper
 concerns
for
keeping
the
details
of
their
trading
strategies
confidential.
the
CDS
would
be
broken
into
two
 separate
contracts
with
the
Clearing
House
in
the
middle.
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
An
exchange
offers
the
advantages
of
highly
visible
prices
and
volumes.
which
are
already
quite
standardized.
and
elimination
of
counterparty
risk
through
standardized
 margins
and
a
contract
guarantee
supported
by
the
capital
of
both
a
clearinghouse
and
independent
 market
makers.
because
identical
offsetting
contracts
made
with
 different
counterparties
would
cancel
each
other
out
when
the
Clearing
House
took
the
other
side.
 3..
 3.#*G"($&.

An
 important
element
of
that
protection
is
that
the
Clearing
House
would
set
standardized
margin
 requirements
on
all
deals.$'B"#*8T-<.#*!")'#$&1
 The
most
basic
arrangement
would
be
a
Registry
of
deals
in
which
counterparties
report
on
trades
 they
have
set
up
bilaterally. When
trading
activity
in
a
particular
derivative
expands
to
the
point
that
the
contract
becomes
 systemically
significant.1. Moving
 trading
to
a
formal
 exchange
 may
be
appropriate
for
some
actively
 traded
and
largely
 standardized
derivative
instruments.&'()*3%>#"*.
it
should
move
to
centralized
clearing
with
a
clearinghouse
that
assumes
 the
 role
 of
 counterparty
 and
 guarantees
 every
 trade.
but
would
be
difficult
for
more
 individualized
instruments.
as
long
as
it
was
adequately
protected
against
default.

One
significant
inconvenience
of
exchange
trading
is
that
contracts
need
to
be
 standardized
to
permit
large
amount
of
trading
in
the
same
instrument.

This
facility
also
has
the
valuable
feature
that
it
allows
a
firm
to
 completely
unwind
a
trade
before
maturity.
potentially.

Information
gathered
in
this
way
 should
be
available
to
regulators
and.&$1
 A
much
stronger
form
of
Clearing
House
would
take
on
the
role
of
counterparty
and
guarantor
of
all
 contracts. A
firm
trading
credit
derivative
contracts
over‐the‐counter
should
be
required
to
provide
 information
to
a
central
Registry
on
each
deal
they
enter
into.

A
second
problem
is
that
setting
up
and
running
an
 exchange
is
costly.
but
the
major
gains
from
establishing
a
centralized
clearing
 facility
 are
 obtained
 once
 there
 is
 a
 clearinghouse
 that
 assumes
 the
 role
 of
 counterparty
 and
 guarantees
every
trade.
as
does
the
clearinghouse
for
a
futures
or
options
exchange.
 Policy
Recommendations
 1.
 2.

This
would
not
be
a
big
 problem
for
CDS’s.
in
addition
to
offering
substantial
efficiency
gains
 in
trading.


and
under
what
circumstances
should
they
 be
enforced
by
the
regulators?
In
particular.
For
example. What
 is
the
appropriate
framework
for
 timely
reporting
of
short
 interest
and/or
short
sales
 to
 ensure
transparency
of
these
transactions
to
the
market?
 Financial
Markets:
Fairness
and
Efficiency
 A
highly
desirable
feature
of
financial
markets
is
that
they
be
fair
to
all
participants
who
wish
to
trade.S.)2&+C!I5+.
what
specific
restrictions
should
be
instituted.6!3)5'$!O?!8<=5)&C)... Should
there
be
any
restrictions
on
short
selling
equity
shares
of
individual
companies.
 Chapter
12:
Executive
Summary
 Short
Selling
 3+.
 In
 efficient
 financial
 markets.
 selling
 at
 a
 higher
 price
 than
 the
 previous
 trade
 ("the
 uptick
 rule")
 and
 disallowing
 short‐selling
 to
 capture
gains
and
postpone
tax
payments
("no
shorting
against
the
box").
* In
a
dramatic
decision
 in
the
 early
weeks
of
 the
current
crisis.
 the
 prices
 of
 financial
 assets
 reflect
 all
 available
 information
 ‐
 favorable
 and
 unfavorable
 ‐
 that
 may
 affect
 the
 magnitude
 and
 the
 risk
 of
 future
 cash
 flows
 from
 these
 assets.
there
is
continuing
pressure
on
the
regulators
to
reinstate
the
 ban.
there
were
some
restrictions
placed
 on
such
transactions.K.
 The
Issues
 The
immediate
policy
issues
are
as
follows:* 1. If
so.+5!).0)C! Background
 Until
 the
 current
 global
 financial
 crisis.
 Equally.
 the
 practice
 of
 selling
 shares
 that
 one
 did
 not
 own.
 Restrictions
 on
 short
 selling
 constrain
 the
 participation
 of
 potential
 sellers.
 reacting
 to
 new
information.
 this
 year.
 making
 available
 information
 to
 all
 participants
 at
 the
 same
 time.
 This
 is
 because
 the
 combined
 actions
 of
 buyers
 and
 sellers.
homes
to
the
two
other
 major
 world
financial
centers.
 the
SEC
banned
short‐sales
of
shares
of
 799
 companies
 on
 September
 18.
 An
 aspect
 of
 this
 fairness
 is
 that
 these
 markets
 operate
 in
 a
 transparent
 manner.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 However.
 so
 that
 the
 markets
 can
 be
 efficient.
cause
that
information
to
be
reflected
in
market
prices.
and
 Japan.
 they
 also
 affect
 buyers
 who
 want
 to
 be
 long
 on
 a
 particular
 company’s
securities.
 29
 .

Even
in
the
U.

Of
course.
 An
 important
tenet
of
fair
regulation
and
taxation
of
financial
markets
is
the
symmetric
treatment
of
buyers
 and
 sellers
 of
 financial
 assets.
at
least
in
selected
securities
or
to
bring
back
the
“up‐tick”
rule.
 known
 as
 short‐selling.
if
not
a
 total
ban
on
such
transactions?
 2.
was
generally
permitted
in
most
countries.
 who
 may
 have
 bearish
 views
 on
 a
 stock.
This
process
is
referred
to
as
 price
 discovery.
should
the
“up‐tick”
rule
be
reinstated?
 3.
have
declared
a
ban
on
short
selling
for
“as
long
as
it
takes”
 to
stabilize
the
markets.
London
and
Tokyo.
such
as
the
requirement
to
borrow
the
stock
A5$/5!to
the
sale
("no
naked
shorts").
buyers
of
 convertible
bonds
or
stocks
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
 most
countries
around
 the
globe.
 and
 subsequently
 lifted
 the
 ban
 on
 October
 8.
and
in
particular.
 the
U.
but
limit
their
risk
 exposure.


curtails
liquidity
and
causes
prices
to
fall
further.
Every
short
sale
that
appears
on
the
sales
and
trade
ticker
should
be
marked
as
 such.
 a
 recent
 study
 commissioned
by
the
SEC.
 suggests
 that
 restrictions
 on
 short‐sales
 are
 largely
 ineffective
 in
 halting
 declines
 of
 stock.
 In
 cases
 where
 there
 is
 strong
 evidence
 of
 market
 manipulation.
and
not
just
short
 interest
reported
with
a
lag.
on
all
listed
stocks.
less
co‐movement
of
stocks.(1*'(B"#$%&*4<%*'#*(%$*.
it
only
slows
down
the
 price
discovery
process.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
restrictions
on
short
selling
reduce
transactions
in
 the
stock
market.
and
lower
volatility
than
 in
those
where
short‐selling
is
more
restricted.
It
does
not
reduce
volatility.
a
ban
on
 short
 sales
 would
 generally
 have
 adverse
 consequences
 for
 liquidity
 as
 well
 as
 liquidity
 risk
 in
 a
 given
 stock
and
its
derivatives.
Thus.
since
the
 latter
use
shorting
to
hedge
their
own
exposure.who
buy
put
options
to
limit
their
downside
losses
will
find
it
difficult
to
buy
them
from
sellers.
Most
importantly.
 
 In
 particular.(("6.
there
is
more
efficient
price
discovery.
We
propose
that
daily
short
selling
trading
activity.
the
identity
of
the
seller
would
not
be
disclosed
to
the
public.
which
in
turn.U"&:* Y: The*W>5E$'-UX*rule
should*!"#
be
reinstated.
 except
 when
 prices
 move
 up.
be
transmitted
online
to
the
exchange/clearing
 corporation.
 Policy
Recommendations
 1.6* ("B"&* 0"* 0.
 Similar
 conclusions
 have
 been
 reached
 regarding
 the
 “uptick”
 rule
 which
 prohibits
 short
 sales.*7. /<%&$* /".&U"$*7.* 4.
 a
 trading
 halt
 should
 be
 considered.
 They
also
 increase
 liquidity
risk
 if
 the
 volume
of
these
future
transactions
is
uncertain.
 All
 they
 do
 is
 throw
 some
 sand
 in
 the
 gears
 and
 delay
 the
 inevitable
 incorporation
of
bad
news
into
stock
prices.)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business. !"5%&$'()*!"S>'&"7"($#:*Transparency
in
the
form
of
'$C+>0!reporting
is
a
precondition*for
 efficient
financial
markets.'()* #<%>.U"6*/<%&$#:X
Regulators
should
also
strictly
enforce
the
requirement
that
stocks
must
be
 borrowed
A5$/5!to!a
short
sale
01*.
 the
 wealth
 of
 available
 empirical
 evidence
 in
 the
 academic
 literature
 as
 well
 as
 accumulated
 regulatory
 experience.

 At
 a
 broader
 level.
which
showed
the
“uptick”
rule
to
be
ineffective
influenced
the
SEC
to
rescind
 the
rule
last
July..
It
has
been
shown
that
in
countries
with
fewer
short‐selling
 constraints.
(Of
course.
 30
 .
delays
price
discovery.
 since
 such
 manipulation
 may
 affect
 both
 buyers
and
sellers.
 H: V%*WV.
no
study
has
shown
that
short‐selling
 constraints
 reduce
 the
 likelihood
 of
 crashes.
Thus.


 31
 .
and
on
statistical
measures.!1)77+!@+6+57+.
each
institution
manages
its
own
risks
but
does
not
 consider
 its
 impact
 on
 the
 risk
 of
 the
 system
 as
 a
 whole. There
should
be
one
regulator
(say.!)..
 
 Such
 a
 firm
 is
 often
 regulated
 to
 limit
 the
 pollution
 or
 taxed
 based
 on
 the
 externality
it
causes.
 As
 a
 result.
 Policy
Recommendations
 Hence.6!3)''&+#!4$2&)567/.
 We
 draw
 the
 analogy
 of
 a
 firm
 that
 creates
 environmental
 pollution.
or
is
induced
to
be.
and
in
the
aggregate
decline
in
home
prices.
 Chapter
13:
Executive
Summary
 Regulating
Systemic
Risk
 :$5)>!:?!-2&)50).
current
financial
sector
regulations
 do
not
address
the
problem
because
they
seek
to
limit
each
institution’s
risk
seen
in
isolation.
 while
 the
 risks
 of
 an
 individual
 firm
 are
 properly
 dealt
with
in
normal
times.
The
assessment
would
be
 based
 on
 individual
 characteristics
 (leverage.
 asset
 quality).

 2. The
regulator
would
first
assess
the
systemic
risk
posed
by
each
firm.
* 
 1.
 hidden
 counter‐party
 risk
 and
 liquidity
shortages. If
 regulation
 of
 systemic
 risk
 is
 desirable.
 in
 the
 externalities
 created
 by
 deleveraging.
Regulation
is
therefore
needed.
 on
 measures
 of
 complexity
 and
 connectedness
(that
define
large.
complex
financial
institutions).
 fire‐sales.

Such
systemic
risk
has
been
ubiquitous
 in
 the
 current
 crisis.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
fragile
and
vulnerable
to
large
 macroeconomic
shocks. Will
 market
 forces
 left
 to
 their
 own
 devices
 ensure
 an
 efficient
 level
 of
 systemic
 risk
 in
 the
 economy?

Or
is
regulation
warranted?
 2.
but
the
occurrence
of
systemic
risk
has
almost
invariably
transformed
 economic
downturns
into
deep
recessions
or
even
depressions.
 what
 form
 should
 it
 take?
 
 Indeed.
and
we
propose
a
new
 set
of
regulations
to
achieve
this
goal.
the
system
itself
remains.
we
advocate
that
financial
regulation
be
focused
on
limiting
systemic
risk.
the
Federal
Reserve)
in
charge
of
systemic
risk.! Background
 Systemic
risk
is
the
risk
that
the
failure
and
distress
of
a
significant
part
of
the
financial
sector
reduces
 the
 availability
 of
 credit
 which
 in
 turn
 may
 adversely
 affect
 the
 real
 economy.
 It
 has
 manifested
 itself
 in
 the
 moral
 hazard
 encouraged
 by
 “too‐big‐to‐fail”
 guarantees.

 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
Unfortunately.
 Not
 all
 economic
 downturns
involve
systemic
risk.


 N<"*?##>"#* This
systemic
risk
has
raised
important
policy
issues:
 
 1.
That
is.
they
are
 not
 sufficiently
 focused
 on
 systemic
 risk.
 how
 should
 systemic
risk
be
measured
or
quantified
in
the
first
place?

 We
argue
that
the
“laissez‐faire”
amount
of
systemic
risk
in
an
economy
will
likely
be
inefficiently
high
 because
systemic
risk
involves
externalities.!S&/C)7!@&$>$AA/.


 3.a.
and
 macroeconomic
scenario
analysis.! systemic
 risk
 contribution.
 provide
 incentives
 for
 regulated
 firms
 to
 limit
 systemic
 risk
 taking.
or.
 and
 lessen
 the
 regulatory
 burden
 to
 calculate
 the
 relative
 price
 of
 systemic
 risk
 for
 different
 financial
 firms.
This
would
allow
 for
 price
 discovery
 by
 the
 private
 sector.
 the
 payouts
 on
 the
 insurance
 would
 go
 to
 a
 government
“bailout”
fund
and
not
directly
into
the
coffers
of
the
firm. Capital
requirements
would
introduce
a
charge
for
a
firm’s
assets
based
on
its
systemic
 risk
contribution.
 expected
 loss.

 b.
 These
tools
would
allow
the
regulator
to
detect
the
systemic
risk
of
one
institution
or
of
 a
group
of
institutions.
 This
 would
 be
 a
 FDIC‐style
 approach
 but
 at
 a
 systemic
 level.
 each
 firm
 would
 pay
 for
 its
 /#.
we
propose
estimating
the
contribution
of
each
firm
to
the
downside
risk
 of
 the
 economy
 using
 the
 standard
 risk
 management
 tools
 routinely
 employed
 within
 financial
firms
to
manage
firm‐level
risk. Systemic
 firms
 could
 be
 required
 to
 buy
 insurance
 –
 partly
 from
 the
 private
 sector
 –
 against
their
own
losses
in
a
scenario
in
which
there
is
aggregate
economic
or
financial
 sector
 stress.
 enable
 the
 regulator
 to
 provide
 remaining
 insurance
 at
 a
 price
 linked
 to
 the
 price
 charged
 by
 the
 private
 sector.
 This
 charge
could
take
the
form
of
 capital
requirements. The
overall
systemic
risk
assessments
should
then
determine
the
regulatory
constraints
imposed
 on
 the
 firms.
This
would
be
a
“Basel
III”
approach.
 It
 would
 have
 the
 added
 benefit
 of
 reducing
 the
 incentives
 for
 financial
 institutions
 to
 become
 too
big
to
fail.
use
tools
tested
and
well
understood
by
the
private
sector.
 32
 .
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
 In
 particular.
and
required
purchase
of
 insurance
 against
aggregate
risk.
potentially
also
 providing
market‐based
estimates
of
the
price
of
systemic
risk.
These
 include
value‐at‐risk.

 a.

 c.
 our
 proposed
 regulations
 would
 focus
 regulatory
 attention
 on
 systemic
 risk.
but
applied
at
the
macroeconomic
level.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
and. In
particular.
 To
 reduce
 moral
 hazard. Taxes
could
be
levied
based
on
systemic
risk
contribution
of
firms
and
used
to
create
a
 systemic
 fund.
 In
 all
 cases.
 reduce
 the
 pro‐ cyclicality
of
risk
taking.
taxes.
stress
 tests.
 reduce
 moral
 hazard.
or.


 as
 it
 offered
 funds
 to
 banks
 and
 accepted
 securities
in
return:
from
under
a
trillion
dollars
in
August
2007
to
over
two
trillion
in
November
2008.

It
has
been
a
shocking
revelation
to
 many
that
the
 total
capital
raised
(public
and
private)
is
 remarkably
 small
 when
 compared
 to
 the
 total
 losses
 incurred
 by
 financial
 institutions
 worldwide
 (including
 banks.
 financial
 institutions
 simply
did
not
raise
enough
capital.
 broker‐dealers.

In
fact.
the
same
 principles
guide
modern
central
banks.
(iv)
This
policy
 of
using
reserves
to
stem
panics
should
be
clearly
communicated.
not
even
enough
to
cover
their
losses.'5)>! =).
 expanding
 primarily
 through
 its
 lending
 to
 banks
 against
 illiquid
 collateral.(6*.
even
 firms
in
difficulty
such
as
Lehman
Brothers
and
Citigroup
were
paying
significant
cash
dividends
–
that
is
 taking
capital
/<'!of
their
balance‐sheets
–
until
they
failed
or
were
bailed
out.
the
central
bank
should
freely
advance
these
reserves
to
any
private
 bank
able
to
offer
"what
in
ordinary
times
is
reckoned
a
good
security"
as
collateral.
 33
 .%!*5/C!'&+!A5$M)'+!7+2'/5!)=/<'!&/#!'/!C).

(Bagehot
 seemed
concerned
primarily
with
the
practical
goal
of
conserving
limited
reserves).L7!2).6!")M$6!I)2L<7! Background
 As
we
work
our
way
through
the
current
financial
crisis.
that
is
usually
 what
 precipitates
 matters:
 
no
 one
 is
 sure
 who
 is
 solvent.(*'.

Otherwise.
central
banks
have
shifted
their
attention
from
 managing
short‐term
interest
rates
to
providing
liquidity
to
the
financial
system..
for
example.

It
involves
the
following
elements:

(i)
Central
banks
should
hold
 large
reserves.
 
We
 make
 below
 what
 may
 seem
 right
 now
 to
 be
 a
 perverse
 argument:
 
F+.
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business..
but
its
massive
scale
suggests
that
it
 is
worth
some
thought
to
 get
 the
 details
 right.!/*!>$B<$6$'0?


 The
Issues
 Let
us
start
from
the
beginning.

What
is
more.
 the
 Federal
 Reserve's
 balance
 sheet
 has
 expanded
 rapidly.
and.
 Chapter
14:
Executive
Summary
 Private
Lessons
for
Public
Banking:
The
 Case
for
Conditionality
in
LOLR
Facilities
 :$5)>!:?!-2&)50)!).B"($*'(#$'$>$'%(.


 Consider
an
undercapitalized
and
possibly
 insolvent
bank:

call
it
Lehman
 Brothers
if
you
 like.'S>'6*.
it
faces
less
pressure
to
raise
more
capital
privately
to
solve
its
underlying
 problem.
 Excluding
 4Q
 2008
 which
 features
 large‐scale
 capital
 infusions
 from
 governments
 into
 the
 financial
 sector.
 
This
 "lender
 of
 last
 resort"
 (LOLR)
role
is
neither
new
nor
unusual.
uncertainty
about
central
 bank
actions
can
themselves
contribute
to
the
panic.
 insurers
 and
 GSEs)
 from
 3Q
 2007
 to
 date.

In
the
US.
(iii)
These
advances
 should
be
charged
a
penalty
rate
to
discourage
applications
from
banks
 that
do
 not
need
 it.!7/C+'&$.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
(ii)
In
times
of
panic.

If
 it
 can
 borrow
from
the
central
bank.!>+)5.

Walter
Bagehot
codified
the
nineteenth
century's
collective
wisdom
on
 central
bank
provision
of
liquidity
in
Chapter
VII
of
1/C=)56!8'5++'
(1873).)%+!$'7!A5/M$7$/.#1*$%*$".(*'(#%.*$<"*6'AA"&"(-"*0"$4""(*.
in
fact.
 
In
 those
 circumstances.

In
many
respects.
 a
 central
 bank
 can
 easily
find
 itself
 lending
to
an
 insolvent
 institution.
perhaps
creating
an
unnecessary
delay
 in
its
timely
 reorganization
and
recapitalization.


 These
 guidelines
remain
 insightful
but
 we
 think
they
 miss
an
 important
aspect
of
financial
crises:

'$*'#* (%$*".


albeit
illiquid.
Washington
Mutual.

More
importantly.
LCs
often
constitute
the
borrower’s
last
line
 of
defense
against
an
 economy‐wide
shortage
of
credit.
and
so
on)
ensure
that
they
 restructured
–
by
reducing
leverage
and
risk
or
converting
debt
to
equity
–
or
recapitalized
–
by
 issuing
preferred
or
equity
capital
in
markets?


 We
believe
the
answer
is
yes.'7.
 which
 allows
 the
 lender
 to
 respond
 to
 changes
 in
 credit
quality.
 weak
 banks
 may
 access
 liquidity
facilities
and
simply
play
the
waiting
game
–
 a
way
for
management
to
avoid
being
diluted
by
 fresh
 capital
 issuance
 and
 thereby
 risk
 being
 even
 more
 insolvent
 if
 things
 do
 not
 improve.* 
 A
straightforward
way
to
achieve
this
objective
is
to
require
in
the
LOLR
facilities
that
eligible
institutions
 and
 firms
 can
 borrow
 from
 the
 central
 bank
 against
 eligible
 collateral
 /.
 in
 absence
 of
 such
 conditionality.

How
does
the
structure
of
private
insurance
deal
with
this
tradeoff?

 Private
lines
of
credit
have
the
borrower
pay
a
the
commitment
fee
and
interest
rate
once
the
lines
are
 drawn
 that
 are
 both
 tied
 to
 the
 firm's
 credit
 rating.
This.
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
we
view.
for
example)
and
a
"material
 adverse
change"
(MAC)
clause
that
give
the
lender
the
ability
to
refuse
the
loan
if
the
conditions
of
the
 borrower
have
changed.

In
particular.
and
their
enforcement
observed
in
practice.
they
include
covenants
(cash‐flow
based.
 in
 other
 words.
the
banks
–
when
they
allow
borrowers
to
pre‐arrange
 such
liquidity
facilities
from
them.
as
 in
the
 current
crisis.

Such
conditionality
would
 incentivize
weak
banks
to
recapitalize
when
their
losses
mount
so
as
to
have
access
to
the
LOLR
facilities
 and
 thereby
 limit
 moral
 hazard.)>.6$'$/.
 
There's
 nothing.
suggest
that
lines
of
 credit
are
private
solutions
to
liquidity
issues.
 All
Rights
Reserved.!*/5! +E)CA>+.
 
Prices
aren't
tied
 to
credit
rating.
.

In
some
respects.
Such
rights
are
indeed
available
to
 private
providers
of
liquidity
insurance
–
namely.

The
private
lines
of
credit
(LCs)
serve
a
similar
purpose
for
borrowers
 as
central
banks’
LOLR
facilities
do
for
banks:

they
represent
contracts
pre‐arranged
by
firms
with
banks
 for
banks
to
give
them
liquidity
when
firms
need
it.

What's
missing.
 
 As
 the
 Federal
Reserve
expands
its
liquidity
operations
to
a
wider
set
of
institutions
and
firms
in
the
economy.
 to
 keep
 an
 undercapitalized
 bank
 from
 using
 such
a
facility.
The
 tradeoffs
 involved
 are
also
the
same
–
providing
liquidity
to
avoid
deadweight
costs
of
liquidation
of
a
sound
enterprise
but
 weighing
that
against
the
fact
that
insurance
will
reduce
the
discipline
on
the
enterprise
to
avoid
being
 in
such
a
situation
in
the
first
place.

Indeed.
 Conversely.
Wachovia.6! C$.

These
terms.
central
banks’
liquidity
 facilities
should
be
2/.
central
banks
should
ascertain
while
providing
liquidity
to
 an
institution
that
they
are
indeed
lending
to
sound
institutions.$C<C!2)A$')>! 5)'$/7.
central
banks’
LOLR
 facilities
resemble
private
lines
 of
credit.
provided
the
liquidity
facilities
created
by
central
banks
granted
them
the
 rights
to
deny
liquidity
conditional
on
bank
health
and
characteristics.• Could
the
central
banks
while
providing
liquidity
to
these
institutions

(many
unhealthy
at
that
 such
as
the
GSEs.!C)E$C<C!>+M+5)%+! ).
 the
role
for
such
conditionality
in
its
liquidity
facilities
seems
imperative.20!$77<+7./'!7/>M+.
but
 central
bank
lending
 is
 secured
against
collateral.
as
a
serious
limitation
in
structure
of
these
facilities.>0! $*! '&+0! C++'! A5+T7A+2$*$+6! 5+B<$5+C+.
 34
 .
Lehman
Brothers.
however.


 Policy
Recommendations
 * * * * * * * * * Our
main
recommendation
is
thus
that
just
like
private
lines
of
credit.
is
anything
resembling
the
material
 adverse
 change
 clause.


 has
 induced
 a
 separating
 equilibrium
 where
 healthy
 banks
 have
 not
 availed
 of
 government
 guarantees
but
weaker
banks
have.
A
multi‐pronged
approach
has
finally
emerged
with
three
key
schemes:

 1.
 the
 US
 loan‐guarantee
 scheme
 represents
 a
 transfer
 of
 between
 $13
 billion
 and
 $70
 billion
 of
 taxpayer
 wealth
 to
 the
 banks.!4).
 provides
 considerable
 optionality
 in
 participation.
 equally
 importantly.
 3.
Freddie
Mac.
The
UK
scheme. A
bank
recapitalization
scheme
undertaken
by
the
US
Treasury
in
which
the
Treasury
purchases
 preferred
equity
stakes
in
banks.!8<.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
giving
rise
to
a
pooling
outcome.
the
 US
loan
 guarantee
scheme
 is
 effectively
forced
on
all
banks.
and
Citigroup.
the
US
scheme
encourages
a
system
where
banks
 are
likely
to
remain
(and
to
 want
 to
remain)
on
government
guarantees
until
the
crisis
abates.
But
a
substantial
part
of
the
effort
and
huge
 sums
of
money
have
also
been
committed
in
an
attempt
to
address
the
systemic
problems
which
led
to
 the
freezing
of
credit
markets.
 the
 UK
 scheme.%)5)9).
 35
 .
 which
 uses
 a
 market‐based
 fee
 structure.
 The
Issues
 The
sheer
magnitude
of
this
intervention
has
raised
two
central
questions
of
interest:
 1.

 2.
appears
to
price
the
guarantee
fairly.
 will
 the
 bailout
 achieve
 its
 intended
 purpose
 of
 assuaging
 counterparty
risk
concerns
(which
have
arisen
because
the
market
does
not
know
which
banks
 are
healthy
and
which
are
not)
and
thawing
the
freeze
in
credit
markets
at
large?
 
 Our
analysis
of
 the
salient
features
of
 each
of
 these
 programs.
their
possible
economic
consequences.
in
comparison. At
 what
 prices
 are
 these
 schemes
 being
 offered?
 Are
 the
 terms
 fair
 from
 the
 taxpayer
 standpoint?
Are
the
terms
fair
to
healthy
banks
and
financial
institutions?
 2.
 and
 where
 relevant. By
adopting
a
one‐size‐fits‐all
pricing
scheme
that
is
set
at
too
low
a
level
relative
to
the
market.
Fannie
Mae. And.
 whereas
the
UK
scheme
has
paved
the
way
for
a
smooth
transition
to
market‐based
outcomes.
 combined
 with
 its
 pricing
 structure.

Implicitly.
 have
led
us
to
conclude
that:
 1.6)5)C! Background
 The
two‐month
period
from
September
to
November
2008
has
been
witness
to
the
most
extraordinary
 level
of
direct
US
governmental
involvement
in
financial
markets
in
over
seven
decades.
 notably
 the
 UK.
 Chapter
15:
Executive
Summary
 The
Financial
Sector
“Bailout”:
Sowing
 the
Seeds
of
the
Next
Crisis?
 :$5)>!:?!-2&)50). A
commercial
paper
funding
facility
(CPFF)
operated
by
the
Federal
Reserve.
 In
 contrast.

 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
AIG. 
By
offering
 very
 little
 in
terms
of
optionality
in
participation.
 comparisons
 with
 similar
 efforts
 undertaken
 in
 other
 countries.
this
 intervention
took
on
the
form
of
)6T&/2
institution‐specific
rescue
packages
such
as
those
applied
to
 Bear
Stearns.
In
part. A
 loan‐guarantee
 scheme
 administered
 by
 the
 Federal
 Deposit
 Insurance
 Corporation
 (FDIC)
 under
which
the
FDIC
guarantees
newly‐issued
senior
unsecured
debt
of
banks
out
to
a
maturity
 of
three
years.
 which.

 2.


 The
 UK
 scheme
 allows
 for
 optionality
 in
 accepting
 government
 funds.
market
participants
are
still
disciplined
ex
ante
by
the
prospect
of
relative
gains
and
losses.
the
US
commercial
paper

 funding
facility
appears
to
be
more
fairly
priced
than
the
loan‐guarantee
scheme.
the
UK
bailout
plan
appears
much
better
grounded
in
sound
economic
principles.

 3.
As
corollaries
to
this
overall
 principle:
 2. Do
not
employ
a
one‐size‐fits‐all
approach
in
pricing.
 but
 it
 too
 is
 otherwise
 generous
 to
 the
 banks
 in
 that
 it
 imposes
 little
 direct
 discipline
in
the
form
of
replacement
of
top
management
or
curbs
on
executive
pay. The
 US
recapitalization
scheme
has
also
provided
little
 in
terms
of
participation
optionality
for
 the
 large
 banks.
by
undertaking
acquisitions
that
are
profitable
 /.>0! with
the
 guarantee)?
The
typically
sticky
nature
of
regulatory
responses
during
past
crises
makes
planned
exit
an
 important
issue
for
regulators
to
ponder.
a
crash—may
recur.
and

 4.
adherence
to
these
principles
would
reduce
any
unintended
consequences
(due
to
moral
 hazard)
 and
 ensure
 that
 the
 outcomes
 from
 the
 bailout
 represent
 a
 rescue
 of
 the
 system
 but
 still
 in
 a
 manner
that
accrues
no
undue
advantage
to
a
small
set
of
institutions.


 Policy
Recommendations* What
follows
are
some
simple
rules
for
regulators
to
follow:
* 1.
and
secures
 no
 voting
 rights
 for
 the
 government.
 and
 is
 associated
 with
 government
 voting
 rights.
lest
we
sow
the
seeds
of
the
next
crisis. By
requiring
a
threshold
credit
quality
and
using
a
wider
spread.
they
ought
to
be
designed
and
priced
correctly
 even
in
such
times
of
crisis.


raised
the
possibility
of
substitution
by
 banks
into
inefficient
assets
(for
example.
and
ultimately
to
move
back
to
a
market‐based
system.3.
and
does
not
 appear
to
represent
a
net
cost
to
taxpayers. Rely
on
market
prices
wherever
available.
 and
 they
 have
 offered
them
for
as
long
as
three
years.
 4.

While
 bailouts
are
unavoidable
under
extreme
economic
stress.
 36
 .
 
 By
and
large.
 A
 final
 issue
 that
 arises
 is
 what
 the
 regulators
 have
 planned
 in
 terms
 of
 exit
 from
 the
 guarantees
 and
 recapitalization
 programs.
this
makes
it
harder
to
separate
good
and
 bad
banks.
and
significant
curbs
on
dividend
and
executive
pay.
 All
Rights
Reserved.

When
the
economic
 outlook
improves.
asset
price
bubbles
and
finally.
we
do
not
want
to
see
abundant
liquidity
at
artificially
low
prices
(due
to
guarantees)
 because
 it
 creates
 the
 possibility
 that
 the
 sequence
 of
 events
 we
 have
 just
 witnessing—excessive

 leverage. Reward
more
those
institutions
that
did
well
relative
to
those
that
did
not.

 
 Overall.
 replacement
 of
 management
in
some
cases.

When
bailouts
are
organized
in
 such
fashion.
 
 
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
inefficient
allocations.

Have
they. Review
incentive
systems
within
banks
that
led
to
the
crisis
in
the
first
place.
 The
 US
 regulators
 have
 not
 priced
 the
 guarantees
 right.
as
a
result.


 it
 dictates
 renegotiation
that
may
fundamentally
change
the
terms
of
the
contract.
 not
 meriting
 government
 intervention.
 there
 are
 those
 who
 view
 mortgage
 problems
 as
 private.
Foreclosure
activity
jumped
81
percent
in
2008.
 37
 .
 in
 which
 non‐payment
 of
 the
 full
 amount
 due
 leads
 to
 default
 and
 foreclosure.
 On
 the
 one
 hand.
This
is
the
situation
in
which
we
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
and
 the
uncertainty
about
their
 extent.
 both
 parties
 understand
 that
 the
 contract
terms
can
be
revisited
in
unusual
contingencies
and
suitable
adjustments
made.
 In
 others. Background
 
 The
 damage
 caused
 by
 the
 collapse
 of
 the
 housing
 and
 housing
 finance
 sectors
 of
 the
 economy
 is
 spreading
at
an
alarming
rate.
Our
generation
will
effectively
be
dimming
the
lights
for
the
next
generation.
 Chapter
16:
 Mortgages
and
Households
 Andrew
Caplin
and
Thomas
Cooley
 I.

 
 It
does
not
help
matters
that
the
underlying
question
of
how
policy
makers
should
respond
to
the
crisis
 remains
 unsettled.
The
ever
increasing
number
of
households
who
are
upside
 down
on
their
mortgages
poses
a
growing
threat
to
the
financial
system
and
the
economy
as
the
actual
 losses.
 Rather
 than
 try
 to
 specify
 all
 such
 contingencies
 up
 front.

 
 The
 market
 failure
 that
 we
 highlight
 derives
 from
 the
 incompleteness
 of
 the
 standard
 mortgage
 contract.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 Without
 a
 more
 thoughtful
 policy
 response
 than
 we
 have
 seen
so
far
we
risk
more
unfocused
programs
that
have
little
chance
of
success.
 While
this
contract
calls
for
the
borrower
to
make
a
fixed
stream
of
payments.3
million
properties.
 it
 is
implicitly
 understood
by
both
borrower
and
lender
that
such
payments
will
not
be
possible
in
various
states
of
the
 world.
and
present
a
five
point
plan
of
action
for
policy
makers
that
is
aimed
at
overcoming
a
specific
 market
failure.
the
solutions
that
have
been
offered
 so
 far
 have
 been
 astonishingly
 ineffective.
In
some
such
 contingencies
 of
 non‐payment.
 economic
 logic
 dictates
 enforcement
 of
 the
 original
 contract
 terms.
 
 At
 the
 other
 extreme
 are
 those
 who
 advocate
 brute
 force
 intervention
 that
 would
 pass
 the
 vast
 majority
 of
 costs
 on
 to
 taxpayers.
Moreover
many
of
the
 proposals
that
have
been
on
the
table
are
potentially
extremely
costly
and
will
saddle
our
children
with
 massive
tax
obligations.


 
 While
policy
makers
have
paid
lip‐service
to
the
mortgage
problem.
 
 We
 adopt
 a
 more
 nuanced
 approach.
with
more
than
3
million
 foreclosure
filings
on
2.
pass
through
the
financial
system
 to
the
holders
of
 the
 underlying
mortgages
and
mortgage‐backed
securities.



 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
In
fact
it
is
hard
to
see
who
benefits
when
masses
of
households
default
 on
 their
 mortgages.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 It
avoids
creating
incentives
for
default
or
delinquency.
 
 We
 present
 a
 five
 part
 plan
 of
 action
 to
 overcome
 barriers
 to
 rational
 equity‐based
 renegotiation
 of
 existing
mortgage
 contracts.
and
potential
gains
associated
with
their
recovery.
 Unfortunately.
 Given
 that
 this
 negative
 outcome
 was
 largely
 out
 of
 the
 control
 of
 the
 individual
 homeowner.
in
that
they
share
costs
associated
with
the
fall
 in
house
prices.
 Default
 and
 foreclosure
 are
 long.
 It
 bridges
 the
 contractual
 divide
 that
 separate
 borrowers
 from
 investors
 in
 securitized
 mortgages.
 with
 the
 cost
 of
 foreclosure
estimated
to
be
at
least
$70.
 The
 third
 involves
 their
 setting
 up
 projects
 to
 demonstrate
 the
 economic
 viability
 of
 debt
 for
 equity
 swaps.
 It
 was
 not
 foreseen
 in
 the
 initial
 contracts
 that
 home
 values
 around
 the
 country
 would
 crash
 simultaneously
 with
 massive
 declines
 in
 income.
 38
 .find
 ourselves
 today.
 The
 second
 involves
 their
 creating
 an
 appropriate
 fiscal
 and
 accounting
 framework.
 It
encourages
owners
of
mortgages
and
mortgage
backed
securities
to
renegotiate
at
an
earlier
 stage
in
the
default
cycle
than
they
do
at
present.

 It
provides
a
contractual
form
that
is
useful
in
the
long
run.
The
rationalization
of
such
a
swap
is
that
it
replaces
the
fixed
obligation
of
 the
debt
contract
 with
 the
more
flexible
 obligation
 of
the
 equity
contract.
 slow.
 in
 which
the
amount
of
the
 ultimate
repayment
depends
on
how
well
the
business
does.
 Such
 swaps
 are
 common
 in
 the
 corporate
 sector:
 for
 example
 the
 recent
 recapitalization
 of
 GMAC
and
many
other
lending
institutions
is
based
on
debt
holders
agreeing
to
swap
debt
for
equity
in
 the
newly
re‐organized
firm.

Economic
logic
dictates
that
similar
forms
 of
debt
for
equity
swap
be
made
available
for
households
that
find
themselves
thrust
into
problems
by
 forces
 largely
 beyond
 their
 control.
 the
 institutional
 realities
 have
 hitherto
 prevented
 such
swaps
from
being
undertaken.
 It
respects
borrowers’
ability
to
pay
in
the
short
run
and
the
long
run
to
avoid
secondary
default.
 The
 fourth
 involves
 addressing
 legal
 obstacles
 posed
 by
 securitization.
Moreover
there
are
 externalities
that
are
associated
with
properties
that
do
foreclose
in
that
they
contaminate
the
value
of
 neighboring
properties

 
 The
 form
 of
 the
 renegotiation
 of
 under
 water
 mortgages
 that
 we
 propose
 involves
 debt
 for
 equity
 swaps.
 and
 expensive
 processes.
 The
first
stage
 involves
regulators
and
 legislators
specifying
terms
of
debt
 for
 equity
 swaps.

This
cannot
be
left
to
the
household.
 renegotiation
 is
 a
 viable
 solution
 that
 can
 balance
the
interests
of
both.

 
 Some
critical
advantages
of
the
plan
are:
 
 • • • • • • It
aligns
the
interests
of
lenders
and
borrowers.000
on
a
median
home
price
of
$200.000.
 The
 fifth
 involves
 the
 simplification
of
secondary
default
for
borrowers
who
swap
debt
for
equity.


 reduce
 default
 and
 foreclosure.

 
 Overall.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
all
the
while
costing
taxpayers
far
less
now
than
 they
 will
 be
 due
 later.
 increase
 asset
values
of
holders
of
mortgage
backed
securities.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
greatly
reducing
costs
to
taxpayer.• It
relies
to
the
maximum
extent
possible
on
creative
use
of
regulations
to
provide
incentives
for
 restructuring.
 39
 .
 Moreover
 it
 works
 simultaneously
 to
 resolve
 short
 run
 problems
 and
 to
 rectify
 longer
term
structural
problems
of
mortgage
markets.
 our
 plan
 would
 greatly
 speed
 market
 normalization.



 The
 market
 failure
 that
 we
 identify
 is
 the
 disappearance
 of
 the
 debtor‐in‐possession
 (DIP)
 market
 because
of
the
financial
crisis.
 All
Rights
Reserved.6! A5$.
but
 this
 intervention
should
not
be
a
give‐away
bailout.
The
current
bailout
plan
 would
offer
less
of
a
 breathing
 space
 to
 GM
 and
 imply
 more
 job
 cuts
 in
 the
 short
 run
 than
 our
 proposed
 bankruptcy/DIP
 financing
plan.
however. 2.
 40
 .
 the
 reorganization
 should
 be
 thorough.
that
the
 government
should
stay
on
the
sidelines. The
market
failure
must
be
identified
 The
intervention
should
use
efficient
tools
 The
costs
for
the
tax
payers
should
be
minimized
 Government
intervention
should
not
create
moral
hazard
 Case
Study
­
How
to
Help
GM
 Based
on
 these
principles.
 Chapter
17:
Executive
Summary
 Where
Should
the
Bailout
Stop?
 P6#)56!G?!->'C).2$A>+).
 reorganization
 in
 Bankruptcy
 does
 not
 reward
bad
management
and
therefore
minimizes
moral
hazard
(*/<5'&!A5$.
 Finally. 4.
To
 be
 efficient.
the
 government
should
provide
DIP
financing
(directly
 or
through
private
financial
institutions)
 because
 DIP
 loans
 are
 well
 protected
 ('&$56! A5$.
 and
 therefore
 lengthy. Should
the
government
offer
support
to
automakers?
If
yes.
We
present
four
broad
principles:
 1.
and
the
government
is
considering
bailing
out
car
manufacturers.
This
provides
a
rationale
for
government
intervention
(*$57'!A5$.
 to
 become
 excessively
politicized.
 We
advocate
a
massive
“DIP”
 loan
to
GM
 in
bankruptcy.
 The
Issues
 The
main
issues
are
as
follows:* 1.
which
was
poorly
designed
and
too
generous
to
the
financial
industry.
how?
 We
 argue
 that
 government
 interventions
 should
 be
 based
 on
 a
 consistent
 set
 of
 principles
 because
 interventions
 without
 principles
 are
 almost
 guaranteed
 to
 be
 captured
 by
 interest
 groups.2$A>+).!).
and
 we
show
how
these
principles
apply
in
the
case
of
General
Motors.
there
is
indeed
a
 case
for
 government
 intervention
in
favor
of
 GM. 3.6!S&/C)7!@&$>$AA/.
 history
 and
 political
 economy
 have
 taught
 us
 that
 ad‐hoc
 government
 interventions
 to
 bail
out
industries
are
a
recipe
for
long
run
economic
stagnation.
We
propose
a
set
of
principles
for
efficient
interventions. Should
the
financial
industry
be
the
only
one
to
receive
public
support?
 3.
This
does
not
mean.! Background
 The
massive
US
Government
bailout
originally
intended
for
the
financial
industry
has
now
spread
to
the
 non‐financial
sector.
 Unfortunately.
This
is
partly
the
 fault
of
the
financial
bailout
itself.2$A>+).
 To
 minimize
 the
 costs
 to
 the
 tax
 payers.
The
DIP
loan
would
allow
the
restructuring
to
take
place
over
18
to
24
months
while
the
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business. Which
principles
should
guide
government
interventions?
 2.
 This
 is
 why
 it
 should
 take
 place
 under
 Chapter
 11
 of
 the
 Bankruptcy
 Code
 (7+2/.
and
to
be
inefficient
in
the
long
run.2$A>+).


 41
 .
 3.'-1*!"-%77"(6.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business. Current
 Chapter
 11
 procedures
 cannot
 deal
 with
 the
 failure
 of
 Large
 and
 Complex
 Financial
 Institutions
 because
 financial
 crises
 unfold
 too
 quickly. Reorganization
 under
 Chapter
 11
 of
 the
 bankruptcy
 code
 is
 an
 efficient
 process
 and
 should
 always
be
the
default
option.bailout
would
be
barely
sufficient
to
avoid
liquidation
in
2009.
To
further
limit
the
ripple
effects
of
GM’s
 bankruptcy.
 even
if
the
reorganization
fails.$'%(#* 1.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 2. Car
 manufacturers
 should
 be
 allowed
 to
 reorganize
 under
 the
 protection
 of
 the
 bankruptcy
 code.
and
the
government
should
step
in
to
provide
DIP
financing
if
necessary.
 We
 therefore
 advocate
 the
 creation
 of
 specific
Bankruptcy
procedures
to
deal
with
such
cases.
 D%.
the
 government
should
also
 consider
backstopping
warranties
and
spare
parts
availability.


 such
 institutions
 nevertheless
 expose
 all
 jurisdictions
 to
 their
 risk‐taking.
 
 For
 example.
 These
 complications
are
largely
due
to
regulatory
arbitrage
across
national
jurisdictions:
i.e.
 even
 if
 specific
national
implementations
of
the
principles
vary
to
some
extent.
 allow
 systemically
 large
 institutions
 to
 grow
 without
 imposing
 a
 significant
 additional
“tax”.
and
grant
generous
bailout
packages
during
a
crisis.
 Chapter
18:
Executive
Summary
 International
Alignment
of
Financial
 Sector
Regulation
 !:$5)>!:?!-2&)50).

However.
 A
“beggar‐thy‐neighbor”
competitive
approach
to
regulation
in
different
countries
–
or
even
their
failure
 to
coordinate
without
any
explicit
competitive
incentives
–
will
lead
to
a
race
to
the
bottom
in
regulatory
 standards.%/!D)>'+5! Background
 Many
of
the
policy
recommendations
being
put
forward
to
repair
national
financial
architectures
will
prove
 to
be
ineffective
‐
or
at
least
their
edge
blunted
‐
if
there
is
a
lack
of
international
coordination
among
central
 banks
and
financial
stability
regulators
in
implementing
them.
what
form
 will
it
take?
 
 We
believe
it
is
highly
unlikely
that
an
international
financial
sector
regulator
with
power
over
markets
and
 institutions
will
emerge
in
the
foreseeable
future.
 such
 centralization
 may
 not
 be
 necessary
 and
 may
 even
 be
 undesirable.

It
 remains
unrealistic
to
expect
that
an
international
central
bank
will
be
able
to
close
down
a
large
part
of
the
 financial
sector
of
a
country
or
determine
 monetary
or
 fiscal
policy
for
a
country.
 
 The
 issue
 is
 one
 of
 externalities
 and
 coordination
 may
 suffice.6!G.
although
cross‐border
 banking
and
financial
flows
are
extensive.!@)<>!D)2&'+>!).
 
 Individually.

This
issue
is
important.
 All
Rights
Reserved.
 
 The
 problem
 is
 one
 of
 externalities.
 
 Indeed.
 42
 .
but
 there
 is
 hardly
 any
 consensus
 on
 the
 core
 set
 of
 principles
 driving
 the
 regulatory
 stance
 to
 providing
 guarantees
and
intervening
in
markets
and
banking
sector.
 giving
 rise
 to
 excessive
leverage‐
and
risk‐taking
incentives
in
spite
of
substantial
regulation
in
each
country.
much
of
bank
and
financial
supervision
remains
national.
 jurisdictions
 may
 prefer
 to
 be
 regulation‐lite
 in
 order
 to
 attract
 more
 institutions
 and
 thereby
 jobs.
 they
 may
 adopt
 weak
 accounting
standards
to
allow
opacity
of
off‐balance‐sheet
leverage.
or
that
international
civil
 servants
 will
 supervise
 or
 inspect
 national
 financial
 institutions.
 But
 given
 their
 inter‐connected
 nature.

Such
an
 outcome
 should
 be
 avoided
 at
 all
 costs.
 and
 the
 case
 for
 coordination
is
therefore
a
compelling
one.
then
the
constraints
imposed
 by
 such
 alignment
 would
 reduce
 regulatory
 arbitrage
 through
 jurisdictional
 choice
 substantially.
countries
are
simply
not
willing
to
surrender
authority.

* The
Issues
 Complications
 that
 could
 arise
 from
 lack
 of
 coordination
 between
 national
 regulators
 are
 many.
There
is
 some
consensus
on
prudential
aspects
of
regulation
such
as
capital
requirements
and
their
calculation.
is
such
coordination
feasible?

If
yes.
 This
 will
 end
 up
 conferring
 substantial
 guarantees
 to
 the
 financial
 sector.
 • ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
If
 national
regulators
can
agree
upon
a
core
set
of
sensible
regulatory
principles.
not
require
OTC
derivatives
to
trade
on
 centralized
 clearinghouse.
if
institutions
are
more
 strictly
 regulated
 in
 one
 jurisdiction
 they
 may
 move
 (their
 base
 for)
 financial
 intermediation
 services
 to
 jurisdictions
 that
 are
 more
 lightly
 regulated.

f.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.

 
 A
commitment
to
such
a
process
will
generate
a
willingness
to
take
the
outcome
seriously
and
hopefully
pave
 the
way
for
international
coordination
on
well‐rounded
policies
that
balance
growth
with
financial
stability
as
 efforts
get
under
way
to
repair
national
financial
architectures.
 b. The
supervisory
and
control
apparatus
of
each
LCFI
regulator
should
feature:
 a.
that
is
based
on
aggregate
risk
contribution
of
 institutions
rather
than
their
individual
risk
exposures. Next.
where
implicit
 government
 guarantees
 are
 inevitable.
 limiting
 their
 scope
 by
 ring‐fencing
 activities
 of
 guaranteed
entities.
 providing
 fiscal
 stimulus..
 43
 .
 central
 banks
 should
 present
 their
 joint
 proposal
 with
 specific
 recommendations
 to
 their
 respective
 national
 authorities.
complex
financial
institutions.
and
agree
on
a
broad
set
of
principles
for
 regulation
of
banks.
and.

 Agreeing
 on
 a
 set
 of
 procedures
 to
 stem
 systemic
 crises
 as
 and
 when
 they
 arise
 based
 on
 clear
 short‐term
 policy
 measures
 (such
 as
 loan
 guarantees
 and
 recapitalizations
 that
 are
 fairly
priced
and
impose
low
costs
on
taxpayers).
 2.
 All
Rights
Reserved.

These
principles
should
cover
the
following
themes:
 1. Fair
pricing
of
explicit
government
guarantees
such
as
deposit
insurance
and.
and
monitor
their
acceptance
and
application.

 d.
mortgages
in
this
case). Agreement
 on
 overall
 objective
 and
 design
 of
 lender‐of‐last‐resort
 facilities
 to
 deal
 in
 a
 robust
manner
with
liquidity
and
solvency
concerns.
 and
 addressing
 the
 root
 cause
of
financial
crises
–
e.
and
long‐term
policy
measures
(such
as
the
 shutting‐down
 of
 insolvent
 institutions. Each
central
bank
should
carve
out
a
dedicated
role
for
a
powerful
LCFI
regulator
that
is
in
charge
of
 supervising
and
managing
the
systemic
risk
of
large. Coordinating
 with
 financial
 sector
 firms
 to
 provide
 long‐term
 incentives
 to
 senior
 management
and
traders
and
other
risk‐taking
employees.Policy
Recommendations
 Our
recommended
steps
to
achieve
such
international
coordination
for
designing
the
blueprint
of
global
 financial
architecture
are
thus
as
follows:* Central
banks
of
the
largest
financial
markets
should
convene
first. Imposition
of
a
systemic
risk
“tax”
on
LCFIs.
 seek
 political
 consensus
 for
 an
 international
 forum
 such
 as
 the
 Financial
Stability
Forum
or
a
committee
of
the
BIS
to
coordinate
discussion
and
implementation
of
 these
principles. Standards
 for
 transparency
 and
 accounting
 of
 off‐balance‐sheet
 activities
 and
 centralized
 clearing
for
large
OTC
derivative
markets
to
reduce
counterparty
risk
externality.

 3.g.
 e.
 c.

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credit
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the
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expertise
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Nobel
Prize
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Economics
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work
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methods
in
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economic
time
series
with
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(ARCH).
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risk.(*V'">4"&0>&)<@*.
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political
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asset
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history
of
banks
 and
banking.
accounting‐ based
valuation
and
risk
assessment.
international
banking.
and
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sector
reform
in
economies
in
transition.$'%(.
and
 professional
conduct
and
business
ethics.
and
performance
of
financial
intermediaries
and
risk
management
in
financial
firms.*!%>0'('@*D&%A"##%&*%A*8-%(%7'-#*.(-"2
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expertise
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financial
institutions
and
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banking.(-"2
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expertise
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agency
problems.*?(#$'$>$'%(#2
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capital
market
efficiency..
asset
pricing.
 conduct.--%>($'():
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expertise
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measurement.
and
the
valuation
of
stocks.
 45
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currencies..*.
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securities
markets.
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finance.(-"*.
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growth
theory
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and
financial
reporting
by
financial
institutions
and
for
financial
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expertise
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spiral
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securities.'('-.($*D&%A"##%&*%A*+'(.($*D&%A"##%&*%A*+'(.
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fixed
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markets.
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governance.*D&%A"##%&*%A*+'(.

(U'()@*+'(..(6*C'.
 All
Rights
Reserved.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Back
to
Table
of
Contents
 
 ©
2008
New
York
University
Stern
School
of
Business.
9'#'$'()*D&%A"##%&*.* 8#$.
microeconomic
theory.8'$.
macroeconomic
theory.(6*!".
housing
market
 M4')<$*\.*%A*.AA""..
 Additional
Authors
 .$*V"4*a%&U*b('B"&#'$1c#*/-<%%.5.(*8-%(%7'-#:

Research
expertise
in
finance
 and
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service
operations
and
incentive
issues
in
operations
 management.*8#$.'&@*+'#<"&*G"($"&*A%&*!".&$#*.'$1*.(6
G%EG<.(-"*.(*_"7".@*C:*864.
 46
 .$*Vab*/$"&(*.'(@*D&%A"##%&*%A*8-%(%7'-#*.(6*D&%6>-$'B'$12
Research
expertise
in
supply
 chain
management.'#
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..(6
b&0.(6*/-'"(-"2*Research
 expertise
in
economic
fluctuations.(6&"4*G.&6#*M"7'()*D&%A"##%&*%A*`>.
operations
strategy.$"*.

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