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EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN HIGHLAND AGRICULTURE AND LOCAL ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES: A CASE STUDY OF TIMURE VDC, RASUWA

Submitted by KAMAL THAPA Exam Roll no: 459 TU Regd. no: 5-2-37-558-2003 Central Department of Environmental Science Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Nepal

Submitted to Central Department of Environmental Science Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Nepal For the partial fulfillment of the requirement for the Master of Science (M.Sc.) Degree in Environmental Science of Tribhuvan University

June, 2011 I

A Thesis Report on

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN HIGHLAND AGRICULTURE AND LOCAL ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES: A CASE STUDY OF TIMURE VDC, RASUWA
(For the partial fulfillment of Master of Environmental Science)

Researcher: Kamal Thapa Exam Roll no: 459 [Sixth Batch] T U Regd no: 5-2-37-558-2003 M. Sc. Environmental Sciences [CDES] Institute of Science and Technology Tribhuvan University, Kritipur, Nepal

Supervisor: Ajaya Dixit Chairperson, Nepal Water Conservation Foundation Chundevi, Kathmandu, Nepal

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LETTER OF RECOMMENDATION
This is to certify that Mr. Kamal Thapa has prepared this dissertation entitled " Effects of Climate Change in Highland Agriculture and Local Adaptive Strategies: A Case Study of Timure VDC, Rasuwa under my supervision and guidance. The thesis is intended for the partial fulfillment of the requirements for Master's Degree of Science in Environmental science majoring in Mountain Environment. To the best of my knowledge, the study is original and reveals useful insights on how people adapt to climate change impacts. This thesis embodies his work and fulfills the requirement for the stated degree awarded by Central Department of Environmental Science, Tribhuvan University. I recommend this dissertation for final evaluation and acceptance.

.. Ajaya Dixit Chairperson, Nepal Water Conservation Foundation Chundevi, Kathmandu (Thesis Supervisor)

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LETTER OF APPROVAL

The dissertation presented by Mr. Kamal Thapa entitled "Effects of Climate Change in Highland Agriculture and Local Adaptive Strategies: A Case Study of Timure VDC, Rasuwa has been accepted as a partial fulfillment of requirement for the completion of Masters Degree in Environmental Science of Tribhuvan University.

Dissertation Evaluation Committee:

. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kedar Rijal Central Department of Environmental Science, Tribhuvan University Head of Department

. Mr. Ajaya Dixit Chairperson, Nepal Water Conservation Foundation Thesis Supervisor

. Dr. Deepak Rijal National Facilitator, Climate Adaptation Design and Piloting Project- Nepal External Examiner

. Mr. Gyan Kumar Chhipi Shrestha Lecturer, Central Department of Environmental Science, Tribhuvan University Internal Supervisor

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to thank my supervisor Mr. Ajaya Dixit for his support in the preparation of this thesis. His suggestion has helped me complete this assignment successfully. I am also thankful to Head of the Department of Environmental Science, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kedar Rijal, all teachers and staffs of the department for their support and guidance. I am extremely thankful to my external examiner, Dr. Deepak Rijal and internal supervisor Mr. Gyan Kumar Chhipi Shrestha for their comments and encouragement for completion of final thesis report.

My sincere thanks go to Mr. Nabaraj Subedi of Department of Survey and Mr. Navaraj Kandel of National Land Use Project. I extend my gratitude to Ms. Sujan Ghimire and Mr. Kanchan Dixit of ISET-Nepal for their support. Im thankful to Dr. Santosh Shrestha, Mr. Madhav Devakota and Deebraj Rai for their valuable comments. I express my gratitude and appreciation to the household respondents of the Timure VDC.

Last but not the least I would like to thank my friends Ms. Sristi Silwal, Ms. Pooja Baral, Ms. Swechchha Shrestha, Mr. Santosh Silwal and Yubaraj Satyal for their assistance in successfully completing this work. I am very grateful to my family for their support and inspiration.

Kamal Thapa June, 2011

ABSTRACT

Climate Change is one of the greatest challenges of our time. It affects agriculture, forestry, human health, biodiversity, snow cover, aquatic and mountain ecosystems. Changes in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation have the potentiality to influence crop production. Despite impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector, little efforts have been made to offset the impacts. In addition problems such as drought, severe floods and landslides have been experienced in different sectors in Nepal. This study assesses effects of climatic variability on agriculture at Timure VDC of Rasuwa District. It explores adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability associated with climate change in local agricultural production. For analysis household questionnaires were administered in the VDC. The hydro meteorological data on temperature, rainfall of Rasuwa district and discharge of Trisuli River at Betrabati Station was analyzed to see any spatial and temporal variations in Timure VDC. The impacts of these variations on agriculture were analyzed. The analysis of past temperature records revealed a clear warming trend. The maximum average temperature shows rapid increase (0.104C/year) than the minimum average temperatures (0.06C/year) indicating a widening temperature range. The analysis of precipitation data however did not show a clear trend of change but the amount of annual rainfall showed increasing trend. GIS analysis of land use change showed a decreased (in average 13.95% per decade) agricultural land which may be one of reasons for declining agriculture production in the study area. People have adapted different strategies to minimize impacts of climatic hazards. These responses include selection of sites for making homes and cultivation in sunny slope, intercropping, bio- engineering, terracing, changing crop calendar, migration and diversifying income. However, traditional social safety net of risk avoidance activities has weakened. Policy driven or planned adaptation strategies along with autonomous adaptation need to address the negative impact of climate change.

Key words: climate change, agriculture, adaptation strategy, local community

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TABLE OF CONTENT
LETTER OF RECOMMENDATION .......................................................................... III LETTER OF APPROVAL ............................................................................................ IV ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ............................................................................................... V ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... VI TABLE OF CONTENT ................................................................................................ VII LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... X LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................ XII ACRONYMS .............................................................................................................. XIII Chapter I INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background .................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Statement of Problem ....................................................................................................5 1.3 Research Question ........................................................................................................6 1.4 Objectives ..................................................................................................................... 6 1.5 Scope and Limitations of the Study ............................................................................... 6 Chapter II LITERATURE REVIEW ...................................................................................................8 2.1 General ......................................................................................................................... 8 2.2 Global Climate Change ............................................................................................... 10 2.3 Climate change in Himalaya Region and Nepal........................................................... 12 2.4 Climate Change and Agriculture ................................................................................. 15 2.5 Climate Change and Adaptation .................................................................................. 17 A. Planned Adaptation: ..................................................................................................... 18 B. Autonomous Adaptation: ............................................................................................. 18 2.6 Climate Impact Assessment and Vulnerability ............................................................ 19

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2.7 Agriculture Policies and Plans .................................................................................... 20 2.8 Development of Hypothesis ........................................................................................ 21 Chapter III METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 22 3.1 Research Approach ..................................................................................................... 22 3.2 Criteria for Site Selection ............................................................................................ 22 3.3 Study Area .................................................................................................................. 23 3.4 Research Design ......................................................................................................... 29 3.5 Data Collection ........................................................................................................... 30 3.6 Data Analysis ............................................................................................................. 33 Chapter IV OBSERVATION AND RESULTS ................................................................................... 34 4.1 Socio-Economic Status and Peoples Perception ......................................................... 34 4.2 Climate ....................................................................................................................... 37 4.3 Water Resource .......................................................................................................... 41 4.4. Peoples Perception.................................................................................................... 42 4.5 Change in Spatial Distribution of Climatic Parameters ................................................ 48 Chapter V DISCUSSION .................................................................................................................. 51 5.1 Change in Temperature and Precipitation .................................................................... 51 5.2 Agriculture Land-use Change ..................................................................................... 51 5.3 Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Events........................................................... 52 5.4 Adaptation Strategy .................................................................................................... 53 Chapter VI CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ................................................................. 56 6.1 Conclusion.................................................................................................................. 56 6.2 Recommendation ........................................................................................................ 57 VIII

REFERENCE ................................................................................................................... 58 ANNEX ANNEX I: Change in Temperature ................................................................................... 63 B. Langtang ...................................................................................................................... 63 ANNEX II: Change in Precipitation .................................................................................. 64 A. Dhunche ...................................................................................................................... 67 B. Langtang ...................................................................................................................... 67 C. Timure ......................................................................................................................... 69 ANNEX III: Change in Discharge .................................................................................... 71 ANNEX IV: Change in distribution of Temperature ......................................................... 71 ANNEX V: Change in Distribution of Precipitation .......................................................... 73 ANNEX VI: Land use Change .......................................................................................... 73 ANNEX VII: Change in Agricultural Land ....................................................................... 75 ANNEX VIII: Questionnaire for the Analysis of Climate Change ..................................... 77

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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Schematic view of the components of the climate system ....................................9 Figure 2: Changes in GHGs from ice core and modern data ................................................ 9 Figure 3: Observed surface air temperature ....................................................................... 11 Figure 4: Carbon Dioxide emission of Nepal .................................................................... 13 Figure 5: Timure Village .................................................................................................. 26 Figure 6: Map of Timure VDC ......................................................................................... 29 Figure 7: Research design ................................................................................................. 30 Figure 8: Focus group discussions .................................................................................... 31 Figure 9: Meteorological stations use for interpolation ...................................................... 32 Figure 10: Ethnicity of respondents .................................................................................. 34 Figure 11: Sex ratio .......................................................................................................... 34 Figure 12: Literacy rate..................................................................................................... 35 Figure 13: Occupation status of respondents ..................................................................... 35 Figure 14: Landholding status........................................................................................... 36 Figure 15: Food sufficiency .............................................................................................. 37 Figure 16: Location of meteorological stations ................................................................. 38 Figure 17: Annual average precipitation in Timure VDC .................................................. 40 Figure 18: Seasonal discharge in percentage ..................................................................... 42 Figure 19: People's perception on temperature .................................................................. 42 Figure 20: People's perception on precipitation ................................................................. 43 Figure 21: People's perception on snowfall ....................................................................... 43 Figure 22: Perception on agricultural production .............................................................. 43 Figure 23: Perception on decreasing production ................................................................ 44 Figure 25: Drinking water supply ..................................................................................... 44 Figure 26: Irrigation water supply ..................................................................................... 45 Figure 24: Drinking water at Khaidi ................................................................................. 44 Figure 28: Issues of forest ................................................................................................. 46 Figure 27: Forest condition ............................................................................................... 45 Figure 29: Perception on disaster ...................................................................................... 46 Figure 30: Impact of climate induced disaster ................................................................... 47 Figure 31: Preventive measure .......................................................................................... 47 X

Figure 32: Resilience from extreme condition ................................................................... 48 Figure 33: Change in temperature ..................................................................................... 48 Figure 34: Change in precipitation .................................................................................... 49 Figure 35: Satellite image of Timure VDC........................................................................ 50 Figure 36: Sloping agricultural land at Khaidi village ....................................................... 52 Figure 37: Landslide at Timure ......................................................................................... 53 Figure 38: Bhakari for grain storage ................................................................................. 54 Figure 39: Ghattekhola ..................................................................................................... 55

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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Climate region in Nepal ...................................................................................... 24 Table 2: Land cover of Rasuwa district ............................................................................. 25 Table 3: Crop calendar in Timure VDC ............................................................................ 36 Table 4: Temperature distribution (C) in Timure VDC .................................................... 38 Table 5: Temperature trend (C/year) ............................................................................... 39 Table 6: Seasonal distribution of rainfall ........................................................................... 40 Table 7: Precipitation trend ............................................................................................... 40 Table 8: Discharge of Trisuli River at Betrabati station ..................................................... 41

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ACRONYMS
ALSO CBS CDES CDIAC CDMA CSMT DHM FAO GDP GHG IDW IIASA IPCC IUCN LPG LRMP MHP MOPE NARC NCVST NPC PREC/L SAM SRES UN UNEP UNFCCC VDC V-SAT WECS Advanced Land Observing Satellite Central Bureau of Statistics Central Department of Environmental Science Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center Code Division Multiple Access Country Study Management Team Department of Hydrology and Meteorology Food and Agriculture Organization Gross Domestic Product Green House Gas Inverse Distance Weighted International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change World Conservation Union Liquid fid Petroleum Gas Land Resource Mapping Project Micro Hydro Power Ministry of Population and Environment National Agriculture Research Center Nepal Climate Vulnerability Study Team Nepal Planning Commission Precipitation Re-Construction over Land South Asian Monsoon Special Report Emission Scenarios United Nation United Nation Environment Program United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Village Development Committee Very Small Aperture Terminal Water and Energy Commission Secretariat

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Chapter I
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background Of all the environmental problems facing global society, climate change is probably the most significant one (Basque Plan, 2009). It is not simply because of the impact that scientific studies suggest that climate change will have, but because of the fact that impact will be widespread and inextricably linked with ways of living and producing. International community made many declarations highlighting the challenges. One such declaration, the Basque Plan against climate change (20082012) elucidates that in todays world we are not dealing with isolated phenomena involving an anomaly located at specific point in the system but with the result of a long process of economic growth based on an unsustainable model (Climate action, 2009). Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines "climate change" as: "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods". Climate change is any long-term significant change in the average weather that a region experiences. Average weather may include temperature, precipitation and wind patterns. Climate is generally defined as average weather conditions (over a period of typically 30 years or more) and can be determined on a regional or global scale. Climate has changed considerably through the history of the earth due to changes in radiative forcing components of atmosphere as they are influenced by natural phenomenon. Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly increases in temperature (IPCC, 2007). But the rate of global climate change during the 20th century was greater than the preceding era (Bates et al, 2008). According to IPCC (2007), the global average surface temperature has increased, especially since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-1700s when the amount of green house gas (GHG) emitted into the atmosphere began to increase. According to this

study the updated 100-year trend from 1906 to 2005 shows increase in 0.74C 0.18C. Many greenhouse gases occur naturally. Many human activities have resulted in the emission of greenhouse gases, which are responsible, for anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse effects. Greenhouse gases emitted by human activities include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydro fluorocarbons (HFCs), per fluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). Global concentration of GHG due to human activities has increased in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004 (IPCC, 2007). There are many other ways in which humans affect the various components of the climate system. Agriculture, deforestation, urbanization and other forms of land cover change alter the proportion of incoming solar radiation reaching the ground surface reflected back to space. This phenomenon affects the energy balance, the temperature and dynamics of the climate system. Observations from across the globe show that many ecosystems are being affected by regional climate changes, especially as a result of changes in temperature and precipitation extremes (UNITAR, 2010). The ecological patterns that have been observed to change range from latitudinal plant distributions, the extension of areas where infectious diseases are transmitted (such as malaria), and changes to ecosystems due to increased regional fire hazards (e.g. in California). Most ecosystems are predicted to slowly migrate and shift their distribution towards the north and south poles in response to warming temperatures (IUCN, 2006). From 1900 to 2005 precipitation (rain, sleet and snow) increased significantly in parts of the Americas, northern Europe and northern and central Asia, but declined in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of the southern Asia (UNDP, 2008). Intense precipitation events result in increased flood, landslide and mudslide damages that will increase risks to human lives and properties. Globally there is an increasing trend of climate related disasters. Between 2000 and 2004 an average of 326 climate disasters was reported each year (UNDP, 2008). Record of disaster event between 1991 and 1999 shows that climate related disaster event were 104. Of the many impacts of climate change, the impact on water is expected to be serious as global availability of freshwater will be affected. Regionally, glaciers and snow 2

packs which are the crucial sources of fresh water for millions of people will be affected. The extent and thickness of glaciers has recently undergone widespread reduction from melting, and this trend is expected to accelerate during the 21st Century. This trend will reduce water flow dynamics and the potential for hydropower generation. Climate change is also expected to change the seasonality of river flows in regions fed by melt water from mountain ranges, like the Hindu Kush, the Himalaya and the inter-tropical Andes. More than a sixth of the worlds population resides in these regions; two thousand million people depend on the water provided by seven of the major rivers in Asia, all of them originating in the Himalaya (IPCC, 2007). As water system is affected by climate change agriculture will be one of the sensitive sector to induced impacts in Asia. The crop yield in many countries of Asia has declined (IPCC, 2007). Agricultural productivity is likely to suffer severe losses because of high temperature, severe drought, flood conditions, and soil degradation. The Stern Review and IPCC 4th Assessment Report both state that climate change will have adverse impact on peoples health, safety and livelihoods, with the poorest people in the poorest countries expected to suffer first and foremost. Predicted climate change will create barriers to poverty reduction efforts and reverse many of the important socio-economic gains made by developing countries (IPCC, 2007). The temperature increase in the Himalayan region has been greater than the global average of 0.74 C over the last 100 years (IPCC, 2007). More rapid warming in higher altitude can be noted in temperature records from Nepal (Eriksson et al, 2008). Observed changes in temperature trend, recent studies and local perceptions collected during the NAPA process indicate a consistent and continuous warming in the period at an annual rate of 0.06C (MoEnv, 2010). Nepals with a total land area is 147,181 square. Agriculture is a main source of Nepals economy and more than 76 % of the population depends on this sector (NPC, 2010). About 6,000 rivers and streams that cross Nepal make it one of the richest countries in terms of physics of the water resources. People who depend on agriculture for their livings are more vulnerable as agriculture is easily affected by climatic extreme events and natural disasters (NCVST, 2009). Due to such events agricultural productivity is suffering from losses and attainment of food security is under tremendous threats. Due to high dependency of livelihood in agriculture and water, Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries from climate change impacts. 3

Third Assessment Report of the IPCC (2001) defines vulnerability as: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC 2001). Vulnerability has been extensively been studied by analyst working on disaster risk reduction. Literature suggest that resilience is inverse of vulnerability, those who are not resilient are vulnerable and vice versa. Any efforts to reduce vulnerability which is also the outcome of the social, economic and environmental exposure and sensitivity can build capacity to adapt (Ahemad and Mustafa, 2007). The IPCC has defined adaptation in connection with climate change impact as a process through which societies make themselves better able to cope with an uncertain future (IPCC, 2007). For community and individuals adaptation is the process of social learning too. The capacity to adapt is the ability to understand climate changes and hazards, to evaluate their consequences for vulnerable peoples, place and economies and to minimize potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences (Dow and Downing, 2006). Recently more practical definition of adaptation has been offered. According to (Moench and Dixit, 2004) adaptation is the ability to switch strategies when faced with stresses, including those due to climate change. The ability of local populations to adapt to floods, droughts and patterns of climatic variability is heavily influenced by the larger, changing context in which livelihoods are based. As markets, communication technologies and transport infrastructure increase flows between many regions are undergoing a process of dramatic social and environmental change. These social changes are occurring in a context in which environmental degradation and global climatic change are fundamentally

transforming the water resource base on which most agricultural livelihoods depend (Moench and Dixit, 2004). As a result developing countries such as Nepal face far more severe adaptation challenges. For such countries, there is need for creating a new understanding between government and development agencies along with local community for innovation and for adaptation (NCVST, 2009). Those challenges have to be met by governments operating under severe financing constraints and by poor people themselves (UNDP, 2007). Adapting to climate 4

change entails taking the right measures to reduce the negative effects of climate change (or exploit the positive ones) by making the appropriate adjustments and changes. There are many options and opportunities to adapt (UNFCCC, 2006). These options range from technological options, such as increased sea defenses or floodproof houses on stilts, to behavior change at the individual level, such as reducing water use in times of drought and using insecticide-sprayed mosquito nets. Adaptation measures also include such as changes in land-use practices, and economic diversification that reduce the impacts that local people (Batterbury and Forsyth, 1999). 1.2 Statement of Problem Given that Nepal is dependent on South Asian Monsoon (SAM) for social and economic well being and that the complex interrelation between SAM and the countrys landscape, it is clear that climate will result in serious consequences as the precipitation patterns is likely to become more erratic. NCVST (2009) does recognize that the consequences are likely to be serious. Study conducted by Ahmed and Mustafa suggest that climate change may exacerbate social and economic vulnerability of communities and how they may adapt. But much more needs to be done to understand the scale and nature of impact. This Local level assessment is relevant in the country like Nepal which has high diversity within short spatial distance. Such study at local level can help plan and implement alternative livelihood and adaptation strategies (Ahmed and Mustafa, 2007). Changes in climatic-zones result in different cropping patterns and farming systems in Nepal. Climatic parameters have the potential impact to alter the ecological distribution of agricultural crops. If the expansion of climatic zones occurs rapidly due to temperature rise, extinction of biodiversity might be severe (Malla, 2008). Because of such consequences it is important to understand the effects at local level. The study area lies in Nepals alpine region. Because the regions are more sensitive to climate change in agricultural practices are more pronounced. For formulating plan to adapt to climate change impacts, the knowledge of local community about climate change and the strategies that take at individual and community level to respond to different types of stresses should be known in the first place. This study is aimed at understanding adaptation strategies that local inhabitants of the study village take to offset impacts of climate change in agriculture sector. 5

1.3 Research Question The questions raised in this study are as follows: Have temperature and precipitation trends changed over time and space? How have the record temperature and precipitation changed in the past? Whether these changes match changes introduced by climate change What are the observed impacts on mountain agriculture? What strategies do the local people pursue to respond to these changes? 1.4 Objectives The general objective of the study is to assess vulnerability of agriculture production due to climate change. It also aimed to identify strategies pursued for adaptation. Specifically the study aimed; To assess the changes in climatic parameters using available hydrological and meteorological data of Rasuwa District. To analyze the socio-economic impacts of climate changes on agriculture. To explore strategies that local community can adapt to changing agriculture production. 1.5 Scope and Limitations of the Study To answer the above questions, this research focuses on the impacts of climate change on the agriculture and on livelihood of Timure VDC of Rasuwa District. The study is based on field survey, analysis of data on land use and hydro-meteorology. The field also aimed to understand adaptation strategy pursued by villagers of Timure VDC. The report includes analysis of climate change as well adaptation strategies. The finding will help other researcher engaged in studies on climate change and adaptation. The report has following limitations. It is limited to a specific site. Information obtained from local villagers and informed persons. The analysis is based on three hydro-meteorological stations The duration of data is 20 years.

1.6 Overview of Contents


This report presents the findings in eight chapters. Chapter I provide introduction and significance of the study as well as the objectives. Chapter II presents a brief introduction to study area while chapter III presents literature review and hypothesis developed to test whether the formulated objectives have been achieved. Chapter IV describes research methodology in order to get answer to the research questions to test the hypotheses as well as the studys limitation. Chapter V and VI present peoples perception on impacts of climate change including temperature, precipitation and changes in land use. Finally chapter VII presents conclusion and recommendations and provides suggestions for future research.

Chapter II
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 General The climate system is made up of a multitude of interlinking environmental components, and therefore can be viewed as the status of the entire Earth system, including the atmosphere, land, oceans, snow, ice and living things (as shown by Figure 1). The conditions of these components of the climate system form the

background conditions for the occurrence of certain weather patterns. Climate is generally defined as average weather conditions (over a period of typically 30 years or more) and can be determined on a regional or global scale (IPCC, 2007). Therefore if the variability of the weather changes (as determined by statistics), this is what we understand as climate change. Meteorological observations have shown that measurements of some elements of weather, such as temperature and rainfall, in certain regions of the world, have changed markedly during the 20th Century. Whilst weather can be extremely chaotic, changing on a daily basis, climate is less variable as it is a measure of average weather over a much longer period (MDP/UNITAR, 2009). Therefore it must be noted that variability in the weather in any one location/region is not evidence for or against any trend in the mean global climate regime; such that a cold winter in a certain region is not evidence for or against the fact that climate change is occurring in the long term on a global scale. There will always be extremes of hot and cold weather, although their frequency and intensity may change as the climate changes. Scientific discovery of climate change began in the early 1800s when natural changes in paleoclimate were first suspected and the natural greenhouse effect first quantified. Shortly after thermometer was invented in the early 1600s, scientists began efforts to quantify and record the parameters of weather. In the 1820s Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier discovered that "greenhouse gasses" trap heat radiated from the Earth's surface after it has absorbed energy from the sun. In 1859 another scientist John Tyndall suggested that ice ages were caused by a decrease in the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The idea of global warming languished until 1938, when

Guy S. Callender suggested that the warming trend revealed in the 19th century had been caused

Figure 1: Schematic view of the components of the climate system

by a 10% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels (Harding, 2007). During the 1970s,

scientific opinion increasingly favored the warming viewpoint. In 1988, the World Meteorological Organization with the support of United Nation Environment Programme Intergovernmental established Panel on the Climate

Change (IPCC) which continues its work on climate change issues with series of assessment
Figure 2: Changes in GHGs from ice core and modern data

reports

and

supplemental

reports that describe the state of scientific understanding at the time each report is

prepared.

2.2 Global Climate Change IPCCs fourth assessment report (2007) suggests that global climate change increases in the average temperature of Earths atmosphere, oceans, and landmasses. Scientists believe that the Earth is currently facing a period of rapid warming brought about by rising levels of heat-trapping gases, known as greenhouse gases, in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases retain the radiant energy (heat) provided to Earth by the Sun in a process known as the greenhouse effect. Greenhouse gases occur naturally, and without them the planet would become too cold to sustain life as we know it. Since the beginning of the first Industrial Revolution in the mid-1700s, however, human activities have added more and more of these gases in the atmosphere. For example, levels of carbon dioxide, a powerful greenhouse gas, has increased by 35 percent since 1750, largely from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. With more greenhouse gases (GHG) in the mix, the atmosphere acts like a thickening blanket and traps more heat (IPCC, 2007). Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important anthropogenic GHG. Its annual emissions have grown between 1970 and 2004 by about 80%, from 21 to 38 Giga tones (Gt). It represented 77% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004. The rate of growth of CO2-eq emissions was higher during 10-year period of 1995-2004 (IPCC, 2007). For the next two decades (2020 to 2030) a warming of about 0.2C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all GHGs and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1C per decade would be expected.

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2.2.1 Change in Global Temperature

Figure 3: Observed Surface Air Temperature

Scientists suggest that global warming will continue at a rate that is unprecedented in hundreds of thousands of years of Earths history. They suggest that 21st century because higher the level of greenhouse gases are emitted, will experience more warming. In the last from 1995 to 2005, 1998 and 2005 were the warmest two years in the global surface air temperature record since 1850. Surface temperatures in 1998 were enhanced by the major 19971998 El Nio event but no such strong anomaly was present in 2005. Eleven of the last 12 years (1995 to 2006) with the exception of 1996 were ranked among the 12 warmest years on record since 1850. Assuming higher emissions of GHG to continue significantly during the century scientists suggest further warming of 2.4 to 6.4C (4.3 to 11.5F) by 2100 is possible. Even if a lower scenario of lower emissions in which emissions grow slowly, peaking around the year 2050 is assumed, and modeling exercise suggests that warming of 1.1 to 2.9C(1.9 to 5.2 F) by the year 2100 (IPCC, 2007) is likely. It is also reported that warming of the Polar Regions has been amplified by the melting of ice, which in turn exposes Dark Ocean and dark land. Instead of reflecting radiation as the ice does, the exposed dark land absorbs almost 80% of the incoming solar radiation leading to rapid warming of the Arctic. This shift will enhance global mean temperature change around world, potentially (due to cause-effect feedback mechanisms in the climate system) causing higher rise in sea level and, in the most extreme climatic scenarios. For people living in coastal areas, even an increase in the sea level by just a few centimetres could cause significant problems of erosion,

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flooding and damage to homes, livelihoods and infrastructure.

Changes in

temperature patterns may damage food crops, disrupting food system in some parts of the world. Plant and animal species will shift their ranges toward the poles or to higher elevations seeking cooler temperatures and species that cannot do so may become extinct. According to IPCC (2007) increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere also leads to increased ocean acidity, damaging ocean ecosystems. 2.2.2 Change in Global Precipitation IPCC also suggests that an increase in the average global temperature is likely to lead to changes in precipitation and atmospheric moisture because of changes in atmospheric circulation and increases in evaporation and water vapor. From 1900 to 2005 precipitation (rain, sleet and snow) increased significantly in parts of the Americas, northern Europe and northern and central Asia, but declined in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of the southern Asia. Patterns of precipitation change are more spatially and seasonally variable than temperature change, but where significant precipitation changes do occur they are consistent with measured changes in stream flow (IPCC, 2007). 2.3 Climate change in Himalaya Region and Nepal 2.3.1 The Himalaya Region Basic patterns of the climate in the Himalaya region are governed by the SAM and winter monsoon systems of Asia (Mani, 1981) The central and eastern Himalaya receives most precipitation during summer and the western Himalayan region receives most of its precipitation in winter. The Himalaya regions show a wide variety of climates. For every 1000m of altitude, there is generally about a 6 C temperature drop. However, the temperature may vary from place to place. An east facing slope has warm mornings and cool afternoons while a west facing slope the opposite. The snow and ice over the Himalaya play an important role on the radiation balance of the region and on the strength of Indian monsoon (Khandekar, 1992). In its fourth assessment report, the IPCC depicts the Hindu Kush-Himalaya, including Nepal, as a white spot, a region about which scientific information on climate change is limited or lacking altogether. It is difficult to identify an accurate change in the Himalayan climate because of its large size, inaccessibility and unavailability of systematic climatological data (Chalise, 1994). Study conducted by Agarwal et al 12

(2003) shows that the temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau were increasing, and that higher elevations were warming faster than the lower ones. 2.3.2 In Nepal Nepal possesses various types of climate that ranges from alpine to tropical type from the north to south border because of its diverse topography and steep slope. Generally, there are four seasons in Nepal: summer monsoon (June-September), postmonsoon (October-November), winter (December February) and pre-monsoon (March-May) (Yogacharya, 1998). The climate of Nepal is dominated by SAM and about 80% of annual precipitation occurs during the summer monsoon (UNEP, 2001). The length of the regular and systematic observations of climatological and hydrological data in Nepal is only about 50 years old. Though systems for the collection and dissemination of hydrological and meteorological data exist the numbers of data gathering stations are insufficient. The existing stations are generally located at the lower elevations in valleys and accessible places. Studies shows that local variations in rainfall amount and timing can be drastic, with ridge receiving 4-5 times the rainfall amounts of the valley situated nearby (Higuchi et al, 1982). 2.3.2.1 Green House Gas emission in Nepal The per capita GHG emission of Nepal is estimated at 42.6 Kg of CO2 in 1990 and 220.6 Kg of CO2 in 2030 which is far below the emission levels of other developing countries (CSMT, 1996). The emission is
Figure 4: Carbon dioxide Emission of Nepal

largely from rice field, solid waste, fossil fuel burning in cities and deforestation. According to Maplecroft report on 2010 Nepal rank fourth most vulnerable country due to climate change impacts, yet it has one of the lowest emissions in the world just 3, 241 thousand metric tons of CO2 (CDIAC, 2009) and 0.025% of total global

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions. On the whole the overall emission level of Nepal is negligible as compared to other developing neighboring countries. 2.3.2.2 Change in Temperature According to study carried out by Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, the average temperature in Nepal is increasing at a rate of 0.06C/year. However the temperature rise in Himalayan region is higher at 0.08 C/year than other region. Average annual temperature in the Tarai region is increased by 0.04 C/year (Shrestha et al., 1999). Increase in temperature is lower in the monsoon and post monsoon season than winter and pre-monsoon, by up to 1.6 C by the 2090s; this difference is partly due to the projected increase in monsoon rainfall and cloud cover, which will reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance cooling through evaporation. Projected temperature increases are lower in eastern Nepal than western and central by the 2090s and this difference will be about 0.7 C (NCVST, 2009). The variation is temperature in Nepal means that crop grown season is different. In Himalaya region, for example, a single crop is grown in a year because temperature is low and in such temperature crop takes more time to ripe. On the other hand, in the Tarai, three crops a year can be grown if water supply is adequate. Similarly single rice cropping is possible up to elevations of 2300 m in Jumla while double rice cropping is limited to regions below 800 m. 2.3.2.3 Change in Precipitation The varied landscape of Nepal matches its varies rainfall. During the SAM (JuneSeptember) most locations in Nepal receive about to 80% of their annual precipitation as rainfall. Topography interacts with the SAM to produce large variations in precipitation (NCVST, 2009). Nearly 64% of the precipitations flow as surface runoff in the rivers. Of the remaining 36%, some is retained as snow in the high Himalaya, some percolates through the ground as ground water acting as natural reservoirs which feeds the rivers to keep them flowing during the dry season. Nearly 8% of the countrys area is estimated to be under permanent snow cover. Snow fall is estimated to contribute about 10% of the total precipitation (Shrestha et al, 2003). A study conducted by MOPE in 2004 has suggested that for the period 1981-1998 the hills and mountains in the north showed across Nepal revealed that the hills and mountains in the north showed increasing trends of rainfall while the plains in the south were experiencing trend of rainfall. According NCVST (2009), modelling study 14

does not show a clear trend of increase or decreases projected mean annual precipitation however suggested that precipitation is likely to be more uncertain though storm intensity is anticipated to increase. GCMs project a wide range of precipitation changes, especially in the monsoon: -14 to +40% by the 2030s increasing -52 to 135% by the 2090s.The study also found that eastern and central Nepal monsoon rainfall is projected to increase more than western Nepal. 2.4 Climate Change and Agriculture In the 21st century, human will perhaps face more devastating, environmental threat, namely due to global warming and thereby climate change. These changes could result in irreversible damage to land and water ecosystems and loss of production potential (IIASA, 2002). Climate change is interrelated with agriculture as both of which take place on a global scale and has significant impact on agriculture in many parts of the world (IPCC, 2007). Environmental change, particularly climate change, will have a disproportionate impact on poor people in rural areas where livelihoods of the majority depend directly on natural resources. Mountain agriculture, practiced close to the margins of viable production, could be highly sensitive to climate change. Risk levels of climate can induce large changes in risks in mountain agriculture (Carter and Pary, 1994). At the global level, the share of agriculture in total gross domestic product (GDP) of developing countries is about 13%, in contrast to 2% of the developed countries. For central, eastern, and western Africa, this share is over 31%, and in for South Asia it is around 25%. The growing demand for food for an increasing population is threatening natural resources as people strive to get the most out of land already in production (IIASA, 2002). The problem become more serious when emerging water scarcity is kept in mind due to climate change. The twin effects of growing demand and scarce water are likely to pose serious threat to food security, poverty reduction and protection of the environment. Sensitivity of food production to climate change is greatest in developing countries due to less advanced technological buffering to drought and floods (Parry et al, 1998). That is not the case in developing countries. Most agronomists perceive that agricultural production will be affected by the severity and pace of climate change, not so much by gradual trends in climate. If change is gradual, there may be enough time for biota adjustment. Rapid climate 15

change, however, could harm agriculture in many countries, especially those that are already suffering from rather poor soil and climate conditions, because there is less time for optimum natural selection and adaptation. 2.4.1 Agriculture and GHGs Emission Agriculture is one of the major sectors that has severe climate change impact. At the same time, agriculture has been shown to produce significant effects on climate change, primarily through the production and release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, but also by altering the Earth's land cover, which can change its ability to absorb or reflect heat and light, thus contributing to radiative forcing. Agriculture releases significant amounts of CO2, CH4, and N2O to the atmosphere (Cole et al., 1997; IPCC, 2001a; Paustian et al., 2004). According to IPCC 2007, agriculture accounted for an estimated emission of 5.1 to 6.1 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2005 (10-12% of total global anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases). Agricultural performance will also be governed by generation of GHGs. The more is the agricultural production, the more will be the emission. The negligible GHGs production from agriculture shows that Nepal has less production. Study conducted at Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC) at Khumaltar showed average seasonal methane emission from rice fields was 28kg/ha/season in rain-fed condition and also found average maximum methane emission from rice field was 49.03 kg/ha in the field supplied with 50% nitrogen + 15 cm stubble. Minimum of 7.7 kg/ha of methane gas was found in the control fields. Further research on the GHGs in different ecozones is required to quantify and verify their contribution more precisely in the agriculture (Malla, 2006). 2.4.2 Climate Change and Agriculture in Nepal Agriculture land occupies nearly 20% of the total area of Nepal (UNEP, 2001). Out of the total cultivated area of 29,680 sq km, only about 9,200 sq. km of the land is currently irrigated and the rest of the area is dependent solely on rainfall for meeting crop water requirements. As mentioned earlier agriculture plays an important role in Nepals economy because the sector provides employment to around 76% of the population, but contributes only about 35% of the total Gross Domestic Product (NPC, 2010). Clearly this is a gap that needs to be addressed by pursuing appropriate 16

policies. About 81% of the populations currently have a daily income of less than US$ 2 (World Bank, 2005) and most of them are subsistence farmers. Per capita cereal grain availability has fallen from 198 kg in 1991 to an estimated 186 kg in 1997 and many districts face food deficits (UN, 1999). Thus food insecurity in Nepal manifests itself in terms of insufficient per capita availability from own production. This context may be due to low productivity, bad weather or the small size of holding - a high proportion of rain fed farmers has holdings too small to produce enough calories to feed the family (FAO, 2004). In Nepal, most of the population relies on rice, maize and wheat that constitute about 38%, 17% and 14% of the total calorie supply respectively (FAO, 2004). Climatic factors like precipitation and temperature can have significant impact on their production. Lack of rains can create scientifically curious practices. Lack of rain meant no moisture in land and farmers of Sindhupalchowk District conducted marriage ceremony between toads in 2008 (Dixit, 2009). This practice shows how severely famers livelihood has been affected variable rainfall but as is evident from above discussion, it is very hard to attribute such anomalies to climate change. Similarly eastern Tarai faced rain deficit in early monsoon of 2005/06. This meant that crop production decreased by 12.5% on national basis. Nearly 10% of agricultural land was left fallow. During the same period in mid-western Tarai heavy rain caused major floods and in turn reduced agriculture production by 30% (Regmi, 2007). According to NCVST (2009) production of vegetable protein (lentils, chick peas, beans, and the like) has declined due to delayed monsoon rains and/or vertical shifts in temperature regime. 2.5 Climate Change and Adaptation Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities" (IPCC, 2007). Responding to climate change, societies can respond to climate change by adapting to its impacts and by reducing GHG emissions (mitigation), thereby reducing the rate and magnitude of change. The capacity to adapt and mitigate is dependent on socio-economic and environmental circumstances and the availability of information and technology. The capacity to adapt is dynamic and is influenced by a societys productive base, including natural and man-made capital assets, social networks and entitlements, human capital and institutions, governance, national 17

income, health and technology. It is also affected by multiple climate and non-climate stresses, as well as development policy (IPCC synthesis, 2007). More recent literature and studies suggest that adaptation is more than coping. In well-adapted systems, people are doing well despite changing conditions. They are doing well either because they shift strategies or because the underlying systems on which their livelihoods are based are sufficiently resilient and flexible to absorb the impact of changes (NCVST, 2009). Adaptation measures are categorized into two parts. A. Planned Adaptation: Planned adaptations can be either reactive or anticipatory (undertaken before impacts are apparent) (Shrestha et al., 2003). It includes programs and projects that governments, NGOs, and international donors implement as a result of specific climate impacts and vulnerability assessments. Planned adaptations are generally made to respond to predicted impacts on ecosystem and hydrological system (NCVST, 2009). B. Autonomous Adaptation: Autonomous adaptation includes actions that individuals, communities, businesses and other organizations undertake on their own in response to the opportunities and constraints they face as the climate changes. Autonomous actions are individual or collective responses, almost entirely in the poorly recorded informal sector. These involve changes in practices and technologies, diversification of livelihood systems, access to financial resources, migration, resource rights and collective action to assess services, resources or markets (NCVST, 2009) 2.5.1 Adaptation and Agriculture The adaptive capacity of a resource system or a human society depends on the resilience of these systems (IPCC, 2007). The resilience of agricultural practices in the face of climate change depends on the nature and magnitude of region-specific climate change, regional sensitivity, or the threshold and social resilience and adaptive capacity of agricultural communities. Adjustment of planting dates to minimize the effect of temperature increase-induced spikelet sterility can be used to reduce yield instability, for example, by avoiding having the flowering period to coincide with the hottest period. Adaptation measures to reduce the negative effects of 18

increased climatic variability may include changing the cropping calendar to take advantage of the wet period and to avoid extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons and storms) during the growing season (IPCC, 2007). Due to late Monsoon and decrease in rainfall, farmers of Abukhaireni VDC in Tanahun district of Nepal were forced to slash and burn the nearby forest and cultivate in the land to cope up with the potential food shortages as they depended only on the rain-fed land (Regmi, 2005). Nepalese households need to reduce their dependency on agriculture, and the government has to increase food security through various planned measures (FAO, 2007). Plan should include better storage and distribution of food and unhindered access to markets. With changes in precipitation and hydrology, temperature, length of growing season and frequency of extreme weather events, considerable efforts would be required to prepare to deal with climate-related impacts in agriculture. 2.6 Climate Impact Assessment and Vulnerability 21st century, depending on the level of greenhouse gas emissions, conventional climate change impact studies focused primarily on physical exposure to average climatic conditions in attempts to identify the vulnerabilities of a system. Carter et al in 1994 proposed the need to conduct climate impact assessments in order to assist in evaluating vulnerabilities to likely scenarios of climate change. They defined vulnerability as the degree to which an exposure unit is disrupted or adversely affected as a result of climatic effects. The concept of vulnerability is at the kernel of our understanding of how communities and natural systems, institutional structures and social relationships are affected by climate change (Ahmed and Mustafa, 2007). The IPCC, in its Second Assessment Report, defines vulnerability as the extent to which climate change may damage or harm a system. It adds that vulnerability depends not only on a systems sensitivity, but also on its ability to adapt to new climatic conditions (Watson et al. 1996). Looking at vulnerability from the food security point of view, the FAO publication The State of Food Insecurity in the World (1999), defines vulnerability as the presence of factors that place people at risk of becoming food insecure or malnourished. Clearly, this definition encompasses causes of food insecurity other than climate change (e.g., armed conflict, landlessness, etc.). Nevertheless, the

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concept of vulnerability includes hunger vulnerabilitywhich refers to the vulnerability of individuals or households rather than that of regions or economic sectors (Olmos, 2001). Climate change impact assessment refers to research and investigations designed to find out what effect future changes in climate could have on human activities and the natural world. Climate change impact assessment is frequently coupled with the identification and assessment of possible adaptive responses to a changing climate (UNEP, 2005). A climate change impact assessment in agriculture usually begins by defining what is usually called a baseline. A baseline consists in a reference climate defined for some previously established past time period, usually 30 years, and a reference socioeconomic baseline for the same period depicting the actual state of the agricultural sector and a whole set of socioeconomic indicators describing the general socioeconomic, technological, and management conditions in which agriculture has been developing during that chosen time period. For well-based reasons a 30-year period is usually chosen to coincide with what World Meteorological Organization (WMO) defines as a normal period, which is 1961 1990. In some cases two subsequent normal periods such as 1931 1960 and 1961 1990 are studied to find if there is some significant difference between the behaviour of mean climate and some extreme phenomena such analysis was done with meteorological drought in Cuba. (Vega, 2008) 2.7 Agriculture policy and plans Nepal has developed policies, strategies, plans and programs to improve agriculture production. The 20 year Agriculture Perspective Plan (APP) 1997-2017, poverty Reduction Strategy Papers or the medium term periodic plans (Tenth Five year Plan and Three Year Interim Plan), and the National Agriculture Policy (2004) and National Agriculture Policy (2006) outline the broader policy context for agriculture development in Nepal. APP emphasizes on few priority inputs, outputs and outcomes (NAPA/TWG, 2010). The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) has also identified agriculture as one of the most important sector to be addressed. In 2011 Government

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of Nepal Approved Nepal Climate Change Policy which tries to incorporate issues of agriculture insurance when crop production fails. 2.8 Development of Hypothesis The hypotheses used in the study were as follows. In Nepal, temperature is rising and its rate of increase is higher in the mountain than in the Tarai. Unlike temperature, precipitation data does not reveal any significant change in their trends. The inter-annual variation of rainfall, particularly monsoon precipitation, is so large that observed trends are uncertain. Climate change is the cause of decline in agriculture production and livestock production. Impacts of climate change are likely to increase. Appropriate adaptive strategies to reduce impact of climate change at community level

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Chapter III
METHODOLOGY
3.1 Research Approach The selection of methodology is one of the most important parts of any research. To identify impacts of climate change on agriculture the study has taken households as the unit of analysis. According to UNDP (2005), in rural economies, it may be more appropriate to focus on the household or village as the unit of response. Here the objective may be to secure a minimum level of income rather than to maximize it, and the focus of analysis should be on the strategies developed to reduce the negative effects of crop yield rather than on those to increase the positive ones. Frequently referred to as coping strategies, these have been analyzed in particular detail in the context of risk of hunger (often related to drought). Thus, climate impact assessments which included analysis of responses at household and village level tended to borrow from existing approaches, tailoring them to consider changes in climate rather than variations of weather. This model was used in climate impact assessment in Kenya and India, see Akongs et al. (1988) and in Gadgil et al. (1988) in Parry et al. (1988). Geographical Information System (GIS) application by using ArcGIS 9.3 software was carried out for assessment of land use changes. This method also included mapping of changes in the patterns of temperature and precipitation. The study made attempts to explore the extent and rate of shift of agriculture land in study area with changes in temperature and precipitation.

3.2 Criteria for Site Selection


Based on literature review and objectives set for this study, selection of study site follows following criteria Study site located at mountain region Agriculture practice depending upon rainfall Availability of meteorological station in study site Accessible for research

As Timure VDC fulfills the above mentioned criteria so it is selected as study site. 22

3.3 Study Area 3.3.1 Countrys Background 3.3.1.1 Overview Bounded in the East, West and South by India and in the North by the Tibetan autonomous region of the Peoples Republic of China, Nepal has mountainous and hilly topography. Nepal extends on an average 885 km in the east-west direction and 193 km in the north-south direction. With an area of 147,181 km, Nepal is divided into five development regions, 14 zones and 75 districts. After the introduction of republican order, Nepal political and administrative boundaries are being redefined but decisions have yet to be taken. According to the interim constitution Nepal will be a federal republic. Nepals altitude ranges from 60 m in the Tarai in the south to 8848 m in the High Himalaya in the north. Lying between altitudes ranging from 4,877 to 8,848m above sea level, the mountain region includes more than 250 peaks with elevations above 6000m and 13 peaks with elevation of over 8000m. Mt. Everest the highest peak in the world is located in Nepal eastern Himalays. Nepal Tarai region occupies about 15% of the total area of the country while rest is under hill and mountain. Nepal has been divided into seven eco-zones (Upreti and Dhital, 1996 based on Hagan 1969) and this division emerges from complex mountain building processes. a) Tarai (1000-2000m) b) Chure range(Siwalik, 200-700m) c) Mahabharat Range (1000-2500m) d) Fore Himalaya (2000-4500m) e) Higher Himalaya (>4000m) and f) Inner Valleys (2500-4000m) As result of the diverse landscapes Nepal has rich bio diversity. The landscape accommodates 7,000 species of flowering plants, 175species of mammals, 170 species of fishes, 861 species of birds, and over 6,000 species of butterflies (IUCN, 1996). Apart from its richness in biodiversity and water resources, the high relief and steep and rugged topography results low accessibility and physical hardship and productive agriculture limited to the Tarai, river terraces and valley bottoms. These 23

pose enormous challenges to provide basic services such as drinking water, energy and food to the people. Only 29% of the land is suitable for agriculture and rest is marginal land comprising of steep slopes, flood/landslide prone areas, high relief, and snow and ice (CBS, 2008). Karnali, Gandaki and Koshi are three main river basins of Nepal with a drainage area of 191,000 sq km. About 74 % of this basin area lies in Nepal. 3.3.1.2 Climatic Variation Nepals climate is affected by two major natural features, the Himalayan mountain range and the SAM. The annual mean temperature of around 15C gradually increases from the north to the south with exceptions in the valleys in the mountains. Many valleys are warm and have sub-tropical climate. Nepals annual mean precipitation is around 1800 mm. The diverse climatic condition of the country has been classified into the following five types:
Table 1: Climate region in Nepal

S.N. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Climate type Sub-tropical Warm Temperate Cool Temperate Alpine Tundra

Elevation 1000 m 1000 m-2000 m 2000 m -3000 m 3000 m-4500 m Above 4500 m

Temperature 20-25C 15-20C 3C-10C 3C-10C less than 3C

Rainfall 1100-3000 mm 500-2300 mm 275 to 2,000 mm 150-200 mm -

Source: MoEnv, 2010 3.3.1.3 Population and Distribution The increase in population and horizontal expansion of cultivated area in Nepal has been dramatic since 1950s. Of the several factors that contributed to the transformations: one is the improvement of health care, particularly eradication of once malarial infested Tarai (Ives and Messerli, 1989). In 1950 Nepal had a population of 9 million which increased to 28,901,790 in 2007: as rise of 3 times. According to CBS of 2001, the population of Nepal has increased from 18.5million in 1991 to 23.2 million in 2001 with an annual growth rate of 2.27%. Correspondingly, the population density has increased from 126 to 158 persons / km. The urban population has increased to 14.2% of the total in 2001 distributed over 58 urban centers as against 9.2 % in 1991. The Tarai remain the densely populated region of Nepal due to better accessibility and fertile soil. 24

3.3.1.4 Socio-Economic Features Human Development Index of 5.1, Nepal ranked 144 th out of 174 countries in 2009. The countrys gross domestic product (GDP) for 2008 was estimated at over US$12 billion (adjusted to Nominal GDP), making it the 115 th economy in the world (HDR, 2009). Above 76% of the population is engaged in subsistence agriculture, (NPC, 2010), and this sector is the second largest contributor to the GDP 33%, after service sector at 39%. Agricultural produces grown in the Tarai region includes tea, rice, corn, wheat, sugarcane, root crops, milk, and buffalo meat. However varying rainfall nature of agriculture its contribution to GDP greatly depends upon the favourability of the weather during crop in season. The share of industrys contribution to GDP was much lower at 23% in 2009 (ADB, 2009). Industry mainly involves the processing of agricultural produce, including jute, sugarcane, tobacco, and grains. Due to high dependency in agriculture, any direct change in the climatic variables will seriously affect the agriculture and economy. 3.3.2 Rasuwa District Rasuwa district is one of the remote Himalayan districts in Nepal. It is bordered with Tibet an autonomous region of China in North and with three districts of Nepal, in east with Sindhupalchowk, in south Nuwakot and in west Dhading. It has 18 VDCs and Timure is also one of them that is located near the China boarder. It is located at 2755 N to 2825 N longitude and 8500E to 8550E latitude and altitude ranges from 614m to 7227m. It has 1512 sq. km area covering High Mountain, mid hill, valley and river basin.
Table 2: Land cover of Rasuwa district

S.N. Land cover Area (ha) 1. Forest 47494 2. Shrub/bush 15667 3. Agriculture land/Grass land 9443 4. Water bodies 54 5. Bare land 8983 6. Snow 25138 7. Others 44308 Environment statistics of Nepal (CBS, 2004)

Percentage 31.4 10.4 6.3 0.0 5.9 16.6 29.3

The population of Rasuwa district is 44,731 according to CBS census in 2001. It is 0.19 percent of total population in Nepal. Population density of district is less 30 per 25

sq. km due to its extreme train. Most of the people residing in this district are from Tamang community which covers 63.75 percent of total population. Per capita income of people residing here is 331 USD. In Rasuwa district extreme temperature variation exist due to uneven topographical feature. District can be divided in to three sub climatic zone tundra, alpine, temperate (CBS, 2005). Average temperature ranges from 4C in winter to 24C in summer and average rainfall is 691.7mm. 3.3.3 Timure VDC

Figure 5: Timure Village

This study uses findings from Timure Village Development Committee (VDC). The VDC is selected because of its marginal socio-economic and agricultural character. The VDC lies in Rasuwa District in the Bagmati Zone of Central Nepal. Geographically the VDC is located between 8520N and 85 36 N longitude and 28 12E and 28 21E Latitude (Survey Department, 1992). The VDC has a total area 154.05 km. It is bordered by Tibetan Autonomous region of China on the north and Langtang VDC on the east, Bridim VDC on the south, and Thuman VDC on the west. Bedang, Bhrangkhark, Ghattekhola Gaun, Khaidi, Rasuwagadhi, Timure (Sedang) are the major settlements of this VDC. The altitude of these settlements ranges from 1,730 m to 3,730 m. along the trail to Timure village many Manis and chhorten are found. The historical fort of Rasuwagadhi also lies in this VDC.

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Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has established a meteorological station in Timure that measures temperature and rainfall. Topography has influence on the climate of Timure VDC. In the mid hills of the VDC above 2500m (e.g. Khaidi, Bhrangkhark) climate is temperate (NGIIP, 2002). In the higher regions above 5000 m alpine climate prevails. The average annual temperature measured in Timure village is 16.8C with 11.4C minimum and 22.1C maximum averages (DHM, 2009). Ghattekhola and Timure lies in Basin of Bhotekoshi River are relatively warmer than other settlements of this VDC. The monsoon brings lot of rains from June to September. October, November, March and April are clear with pleasant climate. Snowfall occurs in the month of January and February due to the westerlies. 3.3.3.1 Demography Annual population growth rate of the VDC is -0.83. This negative growth rate may be due to high infant mortality rate (101.03) or that young people migration to Gulf and European country. 80.65 percent Tamang, 11.6 percent Newar, 3.9 percent Chhetri and 1.35 percent Brahmin and Magar resides in this VDC. The average literacy rate is 34.4 percent which includes 44.7 percent of male and 22.8 percent literacy among women. A single health post in the VDC provides basic health services to local people. But the post has insufficient facilities. Local people depend on the hospital at Dhunche or Kathmandu for treating diseases. Skin diseases, respiratory illness, diarrhea, eye diseases, round and tape worm, anemia, disorders related with vitamins and nutrition are the major ailment that affect the people of Timure VDC the most (Rasuwa District Profile, 2008). 3.3.3.2 Socio-economic feature In Timure VDC 77.9 percent of total population (above 10 year) is involved in some form of income generating activities like agriculture, government service, business etc. The male members are more active than female: 174 men and 146 females women are engaged in economic activities. Out of 102 households only 12 do not depend on agriculture. Three households are engaged in business while 9 households depend on government services. As resident of Timure used to trade with Tibet, but when Tibet became autonomous region of China the volume of trade reduced.

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Farming system of the VDC is traditional and subsistence. As mentioned earlier about 88.2 percent of people are dependent on agriculture (Rasuwa District Profile, 2008). The system is also based on keeping only 119 ha cultivated land in the VDC and the villager grow maize, potato, millet, wheat, apple, cabbage and chili(NGIIP, 2002). The climate of Khaidi village is favorable for horticulture and vegetable farming. Livestock is a major source of cash income for the farmers of Khaidi Village. Yak, sheep, goat, cattle and buffalo are the major livestock kept in this VDC. Near Rasuwagadi and Timure off farm business like pottering and hotel business are important for those who live along the foot trail. 3.3.3.3 Geology With an uneven as the altitude ranging from 1700m to more than 5000 m, slate, phyllite, schist and quartzite are dominant rocks available in the VDC. Lende Khola and Kerung Khola are head waters of Trisuli River and they meet at Rasuwagadi. In 1964, Longda Glacier Lake breached causing a glacial lake outburst flood (Bajracharya, 2009). In this GLOF event, Lende Khola transported huge amount of sediments and deposited them near Timure and Ghattekhola village. The present topography of Ghattekhola village was largely defined by this event. 3.3.3.4 Energy The residents of Timure VDC depend on traditional, commercial and alternative sources to meet their energy needs. Fuel wood, animal dung and agricultural residue are the main energy sources of traditional. Similarly, petroleum products constitute commercial energy source whereas micro hydro and solar are other renewable energy sources. Almost all the population of Timure VDC depends on fuel wood for cooking purpose. A micro hydro plant with capacity to produce 115 KW of electricity is built in Ghatte Khola which serves all households of Timure VDC with electricity for lighting. The residents are dependent on Langtang National Park for fuel wood. They collect timber to meet construction needs from the park. pressure on forest and biodiversity of the national park. 3.3.3.5 Transportation and communication Communication and transportation are the major indicators of development. The VDC is not linked with any motorable road. The nearest road head is Syafrubesi which is 12 km ahead and it takes 5 hours to walk to Timure. Nepal Telecom has provided 28 This dependence puts

CDMA phones and V-SAT services which helps local communities to communicate. There is single line of V-SAT and 7 CDMA phones in the VDC (Rasuwa District Profile 2005). With assistance of Chinese government the 18km long motorable Kerung-Rasuwagadi-Timure road is being built. The road will connect with Kathmandu-Syafrubesi road and is likely to improve mobility and trading opportunities with Kerung, Bazar and Kathmandu. 3.3.4 Map of Study Area

Figure 6: Map of Timure VDC

3.4 Research Design The field work for the research was carried out on June 2009. The research design is presented in figure 7.

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Figure 7: Research design

3.5 Data Collection The collection of data involved the following activities. 3.5.1 Primary Data 3.5.1.1 Field Survey As the research includes assessment of the condition of study area, direct observations is important. Various information and present issues have been collected through direct observation during the field visit. A detail check list was prepared and used for collecting data during the transect visit. The research elicits information by staying in close proximity of study area. 3.5.1.2 Household Questionnaire survey Household questionnaire was administered to assess the adaptive strategy for agriculture practice in study site. A total of 31 households were randomly selected for the purpose of household survey. Household survey covers 30.39 percent of sample size. The list was collected from offices of the VDC and District Development Committee (DDC). A semi-structured questionnaire was prepared including both 30

close - and open - ended questions. The questionnaire incorporated different aspects of climate change, hazards, and agricultural production. 3.5.1.3 Key Informant Survey and Focus Group Discussion (FGD): These methods were applied to draw different information from the key informants to identify resources and the challenges of The climate opinions formal with for the

assessment impacts. collected informal

change were and key


Figure 8: Focus Group Discussions

through discussions

informants and through focus group discussions. 3.5.2 Secondary Data 3.5.2.1 Hydro-meteorological data analysis: Temperature record from 1989 to 2008 Rainfall record from 1975 to 2007

The available hydro meteorological data for in Rasuwa district was analyzed for detecting annual variations in temperature, precipitation and discharge of Trisuli River were looked. The following details were looked at. a. Trends in mean maximum temperature b. Precipitation c. River runoff The data related to rainfall and temperature was taken from Meteorological Records of Nepal published by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM). Rainfall and temperature record from Dhunche, Langtang and Timre stations were estimated. For estimating the average temperature and rainfall, the arithmetic mean method was employed. The five year moving average method was used to find out the normal trend value for the unit of time falling at the middle of the period covered in the calculation of average.

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3.5.2.2 Spatial Analysis Data provided from Department of Survey (DoS) were used to analyze land use change, trend and shift, extent, timing, form of precipitation and temperature of the study area. All the data, information so far collected was compiled using GIS software. A comprehensive GIS-based analysis, ArcGIS 9.3 Spatial Analyst, was used in order to demonstrate the change in climate and its effect on agriculture practice. To find the trend of temperature and precipitation change, Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation tool was used. Interpolation is a procedure used to predict the values of cells at locations that lack sampled points. IDW estimates cell values by averaging the values of simple data points in the vicinity of each cell. The closer a point is to the center of the cell being estimated, the more influence, or weight; it has in the averaging process. This method assumes that the variable being mapped decreases in influence with distance from its sampled location (McCoy and Johnston, 2002). For the interpolation, following meteorological stations which are around the study area were selected.

Figure 9: Meteorological stations use for interpolation

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1. Jomsom 4. Chekampar 5. Dhunche 10. Tarke Ghyang

2. LarkeSamdo 5. Nuwakot 8. Langtang 11. Jiri

3.Jagat 6.Pansayakhola 9.Timure

3.5.2.3 Socio-Economic and Other Data Data published from CBS was used to analyze socioeconomic status of the study area. Books, annual reports and other publications from different governmental and nongovernmental organizations, related websites and online publications etc. were reviewed for secondary information. 3.6 Data Analysis 3.6.1 Primary data For analyzing socio-economic data collected from the field were analyzed using MS Excel and SPSS. Bar diagram and pie chart were generated after the analysis.

3.6.2 Secondary data For the analysis of agriculture landuse change ArcGIS 9.3 software was used. Secondary data was collected from Nepal Landuse Project and Department of Survey. Arithmetic mean and linear trend was used to analyze hydro-meteorological data which was collected from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology.

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Chapter IV
OBSERVATION AND RESULTS
4.1 Socio-Economic Status and Peoples Perception 4.1.1 Population and Ethnicity Based on ethnicity, the major groups of the respondent were Janajati covering 83.76% of Tamang, followed by Newar 11.63% and Magar 4.88%. The distribution of ethnic groups with their % population is shown in the figure 10.

4.88% 11.63%

83.72%

Tamang

Newar

Magar

Figure 10: Ethnicity of Respondents

The respondents of the population comprised of 70.97% male and 29.03% female. The distribution of male and female percentage population in study is presented as below.

29.03%

70.97%

Male

Female

Figure 11: Sex Ratio

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4.1.2 Literacy Rate and Family Structure The literacy status of the sampled households of the study sites were illiterate, literate (just read and write) and up to SLC (primary and secondary level education) covering 62.79%, 25.58% and 11.63%, which indicates that there is dominancy of illiterate group. Educational status of respondents is represented as follows

11.63%

25.58%

62.79%

Illiterate

Literate

SLC

Figure 12: Literacy Rate

4.1.3 Occupation Status The involvement of people both in agriculture and house work were 73.17%. Rest of the population involved in service sector 4.88% including government and private, 12.2% on business and 9.76% on off-farm business. It shows that, the majority of the population depends on agriculture as well as job and business is other major options for them.

9.76% 12.20%

4.88%

73.17%

Agriculture

Business/Hotel

Off-farm

Service

Figure 13: Occupation Status of Respondents

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4.1.4 Landholding Size In study area all land come under Bari/Pakho category which means unirrigated land. According to study conducted, 41.46% people have less than 5 ropani, 34.15% has less than 5-10 ropani land, 12.2% has 11-25 ropani, 7.31% respondents has 25-50 ropani land and 4.88% respondents are landless.

45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00%

41.46% 34.15%

12.20% 4.88% 7.31%

Landless

Less than 5 Ropani

5-10 Ropani 11-25 Ropani 25-50 Ropani

Figure 14: Landholding Status

4.1.5 Major Crops and Crop Calendar According to the focus group discussion conducted in the study area, maize, wheat, millet, barley and potato are the major crops planted in Timure VDC. About 20 years before chili used to be the major crop here but later it was replaced by maize as its production reduced due to fungus. People of Khaidi village began apple farming in commercial scale but they got benefit from them only for two years. New disease caused wilting of apple leaves and production was decreased. The crop plantation schedule adopted by farmers of in Timure VDC is as follows.
Table 3: Crop Calendar in Timure VDC

S. N. Crop 1 Wheat 2. Maize 3. Millet 4. Potato 5. Barley (Field survey, 2009)

Plantation time November March August February September

Reaping time May August December July May

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4.1.6 Food Sufficiency Agriculture production produced in the field of Timure VDC is insufficient for their livings. About 48.4% respondent said that crop produced in their field is sufficient for less than 3 months, 35.5% said for 3-6 months, 9.7% said for 7-12 months and 6.5% people has no production and they have to buy food whole year.
60.00% 50.00% 48.40% 35.50%

40.00%
30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Buy food Less than 3 6.50%

9.70% 0% 3-6month 7-12 month More than 1year

Figure 15: Food sufficiency

4.1.7 Energy According to field survey conducted almost population in Timure VDC depends on fuel wood for cooking purpose and Micro Hydro Power for lighting. Ghatte Khola Micro Hydro Power generates 115 KW electricity and the entire households in Timure VDC are benefited from this MHP. Fuel wood is collected from forest of Langtang National Park. Their dependency in forest for fuel wood and timber for construction needed for homes is exerting pressure on biodiversity of the Langtang National Park. 4.2 Climate The meteorological stations in Rasuwa District are located in Dhunche, Langtang and Timure. Ward 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 of Timure VDC has similar climatic and topographic condition as Dhunche and ward no. 1 and 9 of Timure VDC has similar climatic condition like Langtang. For this field observation was conducted.

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Figure 16: Location of Meteorological Stations

4.2.1 Temperature Temperature record from 1989 to 2008 of Dhunche and Langtang stations were used for the analysis and the data was collected from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. For the temperature analysis there was only three years data was available. As sufficient data is not available it is not used for the analysis. Annual Mean Temperature of study area is 9.5 C. Temperature is high in monsoon season with 17.63C maximum mean and 11.29C minimum mean and low in winter season with 8.84C maximum mean and -1.22C minimum mean(See Annex I).
Table 4: Temperature Distribution (C) in Timure VDC

Temperature S. N. 1. 2. 3. Station Annual mean 15.47 3.52 9.50 Annual max 20.48 7.07 13.77 Annual min 10.47 -0.03 5.22 Pre- Monsoon max 21.67 6.68 14.17 min 10.69 -1.17 4.76 Monsoon max 24.04 11.22 17.63 min 16.00 6.58 11.29 Postmonsoon max min 21.11 7.33 7.79 14.45 0.76 4.04 Winter Max 15.09 2.59 8.84 min 3.84 6.29 -1.2

Dhunche Langtang Mean

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Table 5: Temperature Trend ((C/year))

S. N. 1 2 3

Station

Annual Mean 0.012 0.151 0.0815

Annual max 0.132 0.076 0.104

Annual min -0.107 0.227 0.06

Pre- Monsoon max 0.074 0.143 0.108 min -0.11 0.238 0.061

Monsoon max 0.158 0.13 0.14 min -0.04 0.123 0.041

Post- Monsoon max 0.188 0.049 0.118 min -0.16 0.192 0.016

Winter max 0.108 -0.01 0.044 min 0.21 0.35 6 0.07

Dhunche Langtang Mean

The annual mean temperature of Dhunche station, found to be 15.47C with 10.4C minimum and 20.4C maximum averages. The trend line has clearly indicated that the mean annual mean and maximum mean temperature in the station has increasing trend, 0.012C/year and 0.13C/year respectively. The minimum mean temperature is also in decreasing trend of -0.107C/year. The mean annual temperature of Langtang station is found to be 3.519C along with 7.066C average maximum temperature and -0.028C average minimum temperature. Langtang Station has positive trend of increasing temperature with 0.151C/year in mean annual temperature. There is also increasing trend in maximum and minimum mean, 0.076 C/year and 0.226 C/year respectively. Above data indicates that Mean annual temperature of the study area is in increasing trend with 0.085C/year. Trend of temperature increase is high in pre-monsoon season and low in winter season. It indicates that summer is getting longer and hotter. It has adverse effect on chilly farming as increased fungus attack lead to decreased production. 4.2.2 Precipitation Precipitation record from 1975 to 2007 of Timure, Dhunche and Langtang stations were used for the analysis and the data was collected from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. The mean annual precipitation in three stations of Rasuwa district is 1159 mm and of the precipitation occurs in June, July and August. In these month 59.25% rainfall occurs. Snowfall occurs in areas located above 1900m altitude during winter season (See Annex II).

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Table 6: Seasonal distribution of rainfall

Rainfall (mm) S.N. 1 2 3 Station Dhunche Langtang Timure Mean Annual mean 1948 617 911 1159 Pre-monsoon 280 92 124 165 Monsoon 1118 400 541 686 Post-Monsoon 407 96 192 232 Winter 141 27 52 74

Table 7: Precipitation trend

Rainfall Trend (mm/year) S.N. 1 2 3 4 Station Dhunche Langtang Timure Mean Annual mean 0.79 7.36 6.61 4.92 Pre-monsoon -5.46 3.06 -0.46 -0.95 Monsoon 16.32 4.61 5.03 8.65 Post-Monsoon -3.71 -0.02 1.99 -0.58 Winter -6.34 -0.28 0.04 -2.19

The annual average precipitation at Dhunche, Langtang and Timure Stations are 1948.42mm, 617.01mm and 911.71mm respectively. All the three stations show the increasing trend of precipitation. In Dhunche trend is increaseing by 0.79 mm/year, in Langtang 7.36 mm/year and in Timure 6.611 mm/year.
6.39% 20.05% 14.31%

59.25% Pre-monsoon Post-Monsoon Monsoon Winter

Figure 17: Annual Average precipitation in Timure VDC

The trend of precipitation is increasing in the monsoon season by 8.65 mm/year and decreasing in winter by 2.19 mm/year. It shows that water availability is low in winter which affect local livelihood by drying water sources for drinking water and for irrigating winter crops. Increasing trend of precipitation indicates that water related hazards will be high during monsoon season. Study conducted in Langtang region by Chaulagain in 2006 suggest that number of rainy days are decreasing.

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4.3 Water Resource 4.3.1. Impact on Water Availability Focus group discussion conducted during field survey shows that Ghattekhola, Gumbaling, Simpani and Chuwalung streams are good sources of drinking water but they are also drying. In Khaidi Village, people are using only one water source for drinking water because other water sources dried up. Due to limited water reserve possibility of contamination of water borne diseases is high during rainy season. Women have to walk one and half hours to collect drinking water. Due to decreased rainfall in winter and pre monsoon season water is less available for agricultural which is the major cause for declining production. People say that good irrigation facility can boost agriculture production. If drinking water system and irrigation system is built in Ghatte khola, problem of water scarcity can be solved in Timure VDC. 4.3.2. Change in Water Runoff/Discharge Discharge record from 1977 to 2006 of Trisuli River at Betrabati station was used for the analysis and the data was collected from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. The trend analysis of annual mean discharge is 213.86 m/sec and the annual trend of discharge is increasing by 2.667 m/sec. Discharge in monsoon is increasing by 7.724 m/sec and decreasing in winter by -0.144 m/sec. In monsoon season 57.96% of total discharge occurs and in winter least discharge occurs that is 6.07% (See Annex III).
Table 8: Discharge of Trisuli River at Betrabati Station

Annual Average Discharge ( m/s) Discharge Trend 213.86 2.667

Pre-monsoon

Monsoon

PostMonsoon

Winter

72.86 0.244

495.78 7.724

234.88 2.846

51.91 -0.144

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6.07% 27.46%

8.52%

57.96%

PREMONSOON

MONSOON

POST MONSOON

WINTER

Figure 18: Seasonal Discharge in Percentage

4.4. Peoples Perception 4.4.1. Temperature, Precipitation and Snowfall Pattern 83.72% respondent perceived that temperature is increasing while 13.92% respondents found that the temperature remains the same as before. About 2.33% suggests that temperature is decreasing.
100.00% 80.00% 83.72%

60.00%
40.00% 20.00% 0.00% Increased Decreased Same as before 13.92% 2.33%

Figure 19: People's perception on Temperature

About 61.9% villagers suggest that annual rainfall is decreasing, while according to 15.5% respondents, rainfall is increasing. Yet 13.9% said that rainfall is same as before while 8.7% perceive that there is untimely rainfall in the area. Generally people suggested that rainfall in winter season is decreasing while that in monsoon season is increasing. Respondents whose livelihood is agriculture suggested that rainfall is decreasing.

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80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 15.50%

61.90%

13.90%

8.70%

0.00%
Increased Decreased Same as befor Untimely rainfall

Figure 20: People's perception on Precipitation

Most of the respondent (85.37%) said that snowfall is decreasing, 9.76% said that snowfall is same as before while 4.88% said that there is unusual pattern of snowfall. People have experienced less days of snowfall. There is less snowfall at the lower part of Khaidi where snowfall used to occur.
100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00%

85.37%

0.00%
Increased Decreased

9.76% Same as before

4.88% Untimely

Figure 21: People's Perception on Snowfall

4.4.2. Impact on Agriculture Due to changing climate farmers in Timure VDC have noticed reduced in agricultural production. About 60.98% said that production is decreasing, 7.32% said increasing and 31.71 said that there is no significant change in agricultural production. People in Khaidi village found that the apple production has significantly decreased.
70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 60.98%

31.71% 7.32% Production decreasing Production increasing No significant change

Figure 22: Perception on Agricultural Production

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85% respondent told that the decrease in agricultural production is due to new diseases and pest, 11.9% people told that its due to damaged caused by wild animal which come from Langtang National Park. Wild boar and deer damage standing crop. New pests have damaged apple and chili farming.
70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 65.85%

11.90%

17.07%

4.88%
Wild animal Disease/pest Lack of Irrigation I dont know

Figure 23: Perception on decreasing production

4.4.3 Water Supply People use piped water (60.98%) for drinking to reduce time taken for collecting water. 21.95% respondents

have not adopted any measure and 7.32% suggested that they have not changed their strategies. But 9.76% respondents from Khaidi village told that they had made a ditch to collect water from spring during dry season. About 87.8% people said, they have not taken any adaptation measure for irrigation while 7.87% said that they have built canal and 4.88% told that they have utilized waste water from kitchen for irrigation in kitchen garden.
Figure 24: Drinking Water at Khaidi

70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00%

60.98%

21.95%

9.76%

7.32%

Water piping

Water ditch

No measure adapted

I dont know

Figure 25: Drinking Water Supply

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100.00% 80.00% 60.00%

87.80%

40.00%
20.00% 0.00% Construction of irrigation canal No measure adapted Use of waste water 7.32% 4.88%

Figure 26: Irrigation Water Supply

4.4.4 Peoples Perception on Forest Resource Respondent said that forest condition was increased (64.5%) during the political insurgency (Maoist-Government conflict), 6.5% said that it is same as before and 29% respondent told that forest is decreasing day by day due to demand of fuel wood for cooking.
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 64.50%

29% 6.50% Forest is degraded Same as before Forest is dense

Figure 27: Forest Condition

About 51.6% respondent said that due to increasing demand of fuel wood, there is scarcity of fuel wood, 6.5 % respondent said that wildlife from Langtang National Park damage their crops, 16.1% people told that there is depletion of wildlife in forest, 12.9% people told that there is increase in invasive species like Eupatorium adenophorum banmara, 3.2% people told that there is less availability of fodder for cattle and 9.7% people said that there is decrease in forest.

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60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Wildlife & Agriculture Depletion of wild life 6.50% 16.10%

51.60%

12.90% 3.20% Scarcity of fuelwood Invasive species

9.70%

Less Forest availability of coverage fodder decreasing

Figure 28: Issues of Forest

4.4.5 Peoples Perception on Disaster Landslide is serious natural disaster in Timure VDC which damages agricultural field and block road and trails. 19.4% respondent said that drought, 3.2% said flood, 6.5% said soil erosion, 64.5% said landslide and 6.5% said heavy snowfall as a serious disaster.

70.00%

64.50%

60.00%
50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Drought Flood Soil erosion Landslide Heavy snowfall 19.40% 3.20% 6.50% 6.50%

Figure 29: Perception on Disaster

Climate induced disaster is causing difficulty in livelihood of local people. 51.6% respondents said that climatic disaster has impact on agriculture, 32.3% told on drinking water and 9.7% told on infrastructure and 6.5% respondents told there is no impact of natural disaster.

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60.00% 51.60% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 9.70% 6.50% 32.30%

Drinking water

Agriculture

Infrastructure

No impact

Figure 30: Impact of Climate Induced Disaster

For preventing agricultural land from climatic disaster local people have adapted different techniques. 12.9% told they had made retaining wall, 51.7% told they had made terraces, 32.2% told they follow mixed farming and 3.2% told that they have not done anything to adapt.
60.00% 51.70% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Retaining wall No measure taken Mixed farming Terraces 12.90% 3.20%

32.20%

Figure 31: Preventive Measure

Though there is no severe destruction of local livelihood by natural disaster people have maintained resilience during low agricultural productivity. 32.4% respondents said that they take support from their neighbor, 22.9% told that they take loan, 11.7% told that they depend on remittance, 6.72% told that they depend on off-farm business, 16.58% respondent sells their livestock during extreme condition and 9.7% acquire support from GOs and NGOs.

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35.00%

32.40% 22.90% 16.58% 11.70%

30.00%
25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Support from Neighbour Loan Remittance Off-farm Selling livestock Support from GOs & NGOs

6.72%

9.70%

Figure 32: Resilience from Extreme Condition

4.5 Change in Spatial Distribution of Climatic Parameters Because of the varied rainfall nature of Nepal, agriculture is always vulnerable to unfavorable weather events and climatic conditions. Despite technological advances such as improved crop, weather and climate related uncertainties are still key factors in determining agricultural productivity. Since climate varies over space and time, its effect on agriculture varies accordingly. Spatial pattern is likely to change due to climate change. By mapping these distributions, it is possible to provide placespecific information for policy makers concerning altered levels of resource availability due to climate change. 5.5.1. Temperature Change: It has observed that cold areas are decreasing. In 1990 area having average temperature more than 13.5C (i.e. average annual temperature) was 46.008 sq km in Timure VDC. But in 2007 it was increased to 69.24 sq km. Hotter areas (>13.5C) are

Figure 33: Change in Temperature

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increasing by 1.5 times. Increasing temperature and increase in hotter area in Timure signifies that the present climate is not much favorable to bring desired production unless their cropping pattern is changed. But change in temperature helped people to plant new crops like seasonal vegetables etc.

4.5.2. Precipitation: Timure VDC gets more rain in pre and post monsoon season compared to surrounding areas. Interpolated map shows that average rainfall increased in 2007 (971.471,067.21mm) near Khaidi area in compared to 1990 (815.20-950.57mm). Near cultivated area, the rainfall is high in monsoon season which is 541.41 to 610.71mm but it is less that other areas. Less rainfall occur on winter season that is 51.39-59.21 mm in cultivated area (See Annex V). In past there were only 4.76 sq.km area which gets high rainfall (more than 1000mm) but now there are 67. 32sq.km of total area gets high rainfall. It is clear rainfall is increasing by 14 times.

Figure 34: Change in Precipitation

4.5.3. Change in Cultivated Land According to LRMP 1986, In Timure VDC, there was 364.16 hectare cultivated area which includes 184.86 hectare foot hills/tar and 179.3 hectare slope cultivation. Topographic base map prepared by Survey Department 1993 shows that in Timure VDC there was 260.77 hectare cultivated land. ALSO (Advanced Land Observing Satellite) AVNIR 2 10m resolution imagery of October, 2008 of Rasuwa district shows that there is 166.27 hectare cultivated land which includes 66.59 hectare foot hills/tar and 99.51 hectare slope (See Annex VI).

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Figure 35: Satellite image of Timure VDC

Above data clearly shows that cultivation land is decreasing. In between 1986-1993, it decreased by 103.39 ha; in 1993-2008 it is decreased by 94.5 ha and in average 98.9 ha per decade. Climate change is one of the major causes for decreasing agricultural land in Timure. Land degradation, crop damage and failure, soil erosion, wildfire, insect and disease outbreak are some of impacts of climate change that caused declining agricultural practice and production. This decline in agriculture production with other socio-economic factors such as migration caused change in agriculture land.

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Chapter V
DISCUSSION
All the information which is obtained from the field observation, questionnaire survey, key informant survey, GIS analysis and literature review are presented in discussion chapter. 5.1 Change in Temperature and Precipitation In Timure VDC, temperature is increasing by 0.081 C/year. Increase in temperature will affect water balance of natural system as water demand increases system will be unable to meet the demand. Decreased water availability also has adverse effects on agricultural production. The subsistence farmers of Timure VDC who depend upon rain fed agriculture will face severe problems including possible famine because of decreased agricultural production. The average annual rainfall in Timure VDC is increasing by 4.92 mm/year. Increase in rainfall in monsoon season by 8.65mm/year and decreased rainfall in pre monsoon, post monsoon and winter by -0.95, -0.58 and -2.19 mm/year shows that monsoon rainfall are going to be more erratic. Increasing number of events of intense precipitation in monsoon i.e. a changing precipitation pattern would increase the likelihoods of floods, landslides and droughts. 5.2 Agriculture Land-use Change Land use, particularly agriculture, is largely determined by climatic factors, like rainfall amounts, timing and reliability, while at the local scale soil and landscape features are important. In Timure agricultural land has decreased by 30.43% from 1986-1993 and by 33.75% in between 1993-2008. The major driver for decreasing agricultural land is due to less productivity of land. After restoration of democracy in Nepal people got mobility. Their sources of income become more diverse. Their dependency on subsistence agriculture which has low economic benefit shifted to off-farm business like overseas employment, pottering and service sectors. Change in climate also played another role in decreasing

51

agricultural activities as frequency of extreme climatic event like landslide and drought increased. 5.3 Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Events 5.3.1 Mountain Agriculture

Figure 36: Sloping Agricultural Land at Khaidi Village

Untimely rainfall and drying of water sources decrease agricultural production. Increasing temperature trend obtained from observation and that felt by the community matches. People have stopped planting chili for which Timure was famous. About 50% crop failure occurred due to wilting of chili due to fungus. Frequency of occurrence of fungus is high due to increase in temperature. Apple production is decreasing as rainfall is untimely and temperature increasing in Khaidi village. Apple tree are affected by the disease which causes wilting of leaves. People are shifting their traditional farming practice into business, employment outside Nepal and off-farm business due to insecurity in agricultural and less availability of pasture land for livestock grazing. About 20-24 households of Khaidi village have shifted to Timure village for new income opportunities. Major impact on agriculture due to climate change can be summarized as follows i. Increase incidence of disease and pest: Chilly susceptible to fungus, people shift to maize 52

Apple farming in Khaidi village affected due to fungus which cause wilting of leaves

ii. iii.

Landslide affected agriculture land of Khaidi Intense rainfall removes soil nutrient of slope land: production lowered (wheat and barley)

iv.

Quality of potato decreasing

5.3.2 Biodiversity Detail information on biodiversity was difficult to obtain since it needs long observation such as variation in species availability, density and distribution. It is difficult to draw conclusion on how forestry and biodiversity have been affected by climate variability. Firewood consumption for cooking and heating has increased pressure on forest resource. Weed species like Eupatorium adenophorum banmara has spread widely posing threat to existing tree species. 5.3.3 Landslide In rainy season, landslide affects water sources which have impact on drinking. Huge landslide at Charchum blocks road in monsoon season. In rainy days, landslide frequently damages agricultural field of Khaidi and affects about 20-24 households. No effective measures are used to control land slide but some villagers made retaining wall to control it but it is not so effective. People here have low income and cannot afford high cost and their local attempt to control landslide is limited. 5.4 Adaptation Strategy People of Timure have adopted strategies to reduce the risk associated with climate variability and changes. Different strategies for water and agriculture production are being used. They have used various strategies to survive in a variable environment throughout history. In the rapidly changing economic, social, and environmental contexts, only innovative and sustainable adaptation strategies can ensure a secure lifestyle. 53
Figure 37: Landslide at Timure

5.4.1 Agriculture People have adapted different strategies to minimize environmental risk and ensure food security. The main concern for construction of level terraces on steep hill slopes is to reduce erosion on one hand and obtain benefits of irrigation. People have made terraces in hill slope. Another strategy adopted by the

villagers is choice of crops. Maize, millet, wheat, barley and potato are grown in unirrigated lands. Native varieties are resistant to local climatic deviation and ensure food even though is low. Imported improved varieties though have high production potential but are less resistant to climatic stresses such as windstorm, hail and rain. Farmers in Timure VDC use both improved and local varieties of maize. Intercropping of different varieties of crop having different growing period is also practiced. Grains are stored in

"Bhakari"(system of food grain storage) for deficit month and "Sahayog" (provision of free labour) for
Figure 38: Bhakari for Grain Storage

crisis management. Diversification of income through crops, livestock, wage from construction work, porterage is strategies used to minimize risks. In recent days, remittance is used for crisis management. Livestock is an important source of income of the people living in the hills generally. It is also an important source for manure of plant nutrient. However, the growth of livestock farming depends on the availability of fodder from pasture/grazing land. During winter it is almost impossible to graze animals in highland pasture due to severe cold and snow. Traditionally, people travel to lower regions for grazing in winter and use subtropical forest and grassland (e.g. Lende Khola watershed). They take their livestock to alpine pasture (e.g. Bhrangkhark) in the summer. They follow fixed calendar of use, specific areas are for specific animals.

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5.4.2 Biodiversity There is no specific strategy to reduce impact on biodiversity. Langtang National Park is aimed at protecting forest and biodiversity with the help of local people. Antipoaching committee has been formed to regulate hunting. Similarly, buffer zone community is also mobilized to preserve biodiversity from community level. 5.4.3 Water Resource Local people use different stretegies to meet their water needs. In Timure village taping of water started in 1986 B.S. from Gumbaling stream. A 3,500 liters tank was built to store water to serve 70 households. The District Development Committee

(DDC) provides annual budget for its maintenance. In Khaidi, villagers have made a
Figure 39: Ghatte Khola

small ditch near the village to collect water from a spring to supply drinking water. Though drinking water project in Khaidi was started during Panchayat era (1986.), it is not in use today because of weak social institution and poor maintenance. Due to drying up of this drinking water source, people have started implementing new drinking water and irrigation projects. This project is supported by Unity Service Cooperation (USC) Nepal.

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Chapter VI
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
6.1 Conclusion Timure is a typical rural Tamang VDC inhabited by community whose major source of income is agriculture. Although agriculture is the main source of income, it is not sufficient to feed their family throughout the year because of less agriculture land and less crop production. Poor economic condition and low human development in terms of education, health and other physical infrastructure is characteristics social feature of the VDC. The analysis of past temperature records suggests a clear warming trend. The maximum temperatures were increasing more rapidly (0.104C/year) than the minimum temperatures (0.06C/year) indicating a widening range. The analysis of precipitation data however did not show increasing or decreasing trend regarding different seasons but the amount of annual rainfall showed increasing trend (4.92mm/year). GIS analysis of landuse change clearly indicates there is shift and decrease in agriculture land area. These in turn are triggered by climate change and socioeconomic changes. People suggest that rainfall is untimely and that temperature has increased. Due to this change there is increasing pest and disease infestation on crops, reduction in fruit quality, nutrient loss from soil and land degradation. All this help reduce agriculture production. At the same time, people are changing their traditional occupation. They search new alternatives such as off farm business and employment outside Nepal which are less risky than agriculture to diversify their livelihood. People have pursued different strategies to reduce vulnerabilities from climate related disaster. These strategies include selection of sites for housing and cultivation in sunny slope, intercropping, bio-engineering measures such as terracing, change in crop calendar, migration and diversification of income. However, the traditional social safety net of risk avoidance has been weakening. Policy driven or planned adaptation strategies along with autonomous options need to enable people to address negative impact of climate change. To that end high priority should be accorded to building drinking water system, irrigation infrastructure, improving the quality of soil. 56

Other options include improving availability of fertilizer and improved seeds. In general, climate change should be considered in long-term planning horizon to maximize adaptive capacity. 6.2 Recommendation The recommendation is made based on the analysis of hydro-meteorological data available from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Department of Survey, Central Bureau of Statistics and social-economic data generated from the field study. There is need for more analytical research on relation of food security with agriculture production, forestry and water system as a consequence of changes in climate. The possible adaptation options for minimizing the magnitude of damage by climate change should be assessed through studies and participatory assessments. Possible research themes are as follows. Assessment on impact of climate change on specific crop Assessment on effect of increase carbon dioxide in atmosphere and effect on crop productivity in mountain Understand relation between climatic parameters, shift and trend of cultivated land Increase density of meteorological stations in mountains region Preparation of planned adaptation options are required in Timure VDC Climate change has complex impact on agriculture system and existing socioeconomic context of Nepal make them more complex. Assessing impact is complex because of the uncertainties and assumptions that needs to be taken. There must be rigorous study on impact due to climate change in rainfall pattern or drought, despite same amount of rainfall. Such analysis is important for building confidence in determining the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and food security.

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REFERENCE
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Devakota, L.P., 2004: Climate Variability over Nepal: Observations, forecasting, Modeling Evaluation and Impacts on Agriculture and Water Resources, PhD Dissertation, Tribhuwan University, Kathmandu, Nepal. Eriksson, M., et al, 2008: How Does Climate Change Affect Human Health in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya Region, Regional Health Forum. FAO, 2004: Food Insecurity and Vulnerability in Nepal: Profiles of Seven Vulnerable Groups, Food Security and Agricultural Projects Analysis Service (ESAF), Agricultural and Development Economics Division, Economic and Social Department, Food and Agriculture Organization, Italy FAO, 2007: Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries: Perspective, Framework and Priorities, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Viale delle Terme di Caracalla00153 Rome, Italy Fischer, G., Shah, M., and Velthuizenm, H.V., 2002: Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerabilit, World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg Gaire, D., Suvedi, M. and Amatya J., 2008: Impacts Assessment and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Makawanpur District, Nepal a report submitted to Action Aid Nepal, and Women and Child Development Forum (WCDF), Nepal GTZ, 2009: Climate Change and Agriculture: Threats and Opportunities, Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ), Climate Protection Programme for Developing Countries, Postfach, Germany Gum, W. (ed.), 2009: Even the Himalayas have stopped smiling: Climate Change, Poverty and Adaptation in Nepal, Oxfam Nepal, Jawalakhel, Nepal. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/jan/08/climatechange.climate environment http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/nep.html IIASA, 2002: Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna IPCC, 2001a: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Group I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R. T and the Core Writing Team (eds.)] Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. IPCC, 2001b: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of WG II to TAR of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press, Cambridge IPCC, 2007.Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. change

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IPCC, 2007.Climate Change 2007: the physical sciences basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. IUCN, 2006: Climate Change and Mountain Environment, IUCN/WCPA Mountain Biome Workshop, Ecuador Ives, J. and Messerli, B., 1989: The Himalayan Dilemma: Reconciling Development and Conservation, Routledge, London, United Kingdom. Joshi, G.R., 2007: Assessing Community Vulnerability to Climate Change and Their Adaptive Capacity: A Case Study of Phedigaun Ward No. 9, Palung, VDC, M.Sc. Dissertation, SchMES College Kathmandu, Nepal. Khanal, N. R., 2002: Land Use and Land Cover dynamics in the Himalaya: a Case Study of the Madi Watershed, Western Development Region, Nepal, PhD Dissertation, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal. Khandekar, M.L., 1991: Eurasian snow cover, Indian Monsoon and El Nino/southern oscillation-a synthesis. In: Atmosphere-Ocean Vol 29 No. 4, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society LRMP, 1986: Land Utilization Report, Land resources Mapping Project, Kenting Earth Sciences Limited, His Majestys Government of Nepal and Government of Canada. Malla, G., 2008: Climate Change and Its Impact on Nepalese Agriculture, the Journal of Agriculture and Environment Vol: 9, Jun.2008 Review Paper. 62 Mani, A., 1981: The Climate of the Himalaya In the Himalaya: Aspects of Changes [Lall, J.S. and A.D. Modi (eds.), New Delhi, Oxford University Press McCoy, J. and Johnston, K., 2002: Using ArcGIS Spatial Analyst, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI), Redlands, California, USA. Moench, M. and Dixit, A., 2007: Working with the Winds of Change: Toward Strategies for Responding to the Risks Associated with Climate Change and other Hazards, ProVention Consortium, Institute for Social and Environmental TransitionInternational and Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal. Moench, M. and. Dixit, A., 2004: Adaptive Capacity and Livelihood Resilience, ISET Colorado, USA and ISET-Nepal MoEnv, 2010: National Adaptation Programme of Action to Climate Change, Ministry of Environment, Government of Nepal, Kathmandu Nepal MOPE, 2000: State of the Environment, Ministry of Population and Environment, Kathmandu, Nepal NAPA/TWG, 2010: Stocktaking Report, Thematic Working Group: NAPA Agriculture and Food Security, Ministry of Environment, Nepal

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NCVST, 2009: Vulnerability Through the Eyes of Vulnerable: Climate Change Induced Uncertainties and Nepals Development Predicaments, Institute of Social and Environmental Transition- Nepal (ISET-N), Nepal Vulnerability Study Team (NCVST) Nepal NGIIP, 2002: National Topographic Database at Scales 1:2500 and 1:50000, Minbhawan, Kathmandu, Nepal. NPC, 2010: The Food Security Atlas of Nepal, Food Security Monitoring Task Force, National Planning Commission, Government of Nepal Parry, M. C., Rosenzweig, A., Erda, L., 1998: Agriculture. In: Handbook on methods foe climate change impact assessment an adaptation strategies [Feenstra, J.F., I. Burton, J. Smith and R.S.J. Tol(eds.), UNEP/Institute for Environmental Studies. Price, M. and Neville, G.2006: Designing Strategies to Increase the Resilience of Alpine/ Montane Systems to Climate Change In, Harmon, D. and Worboys, G.L. (Eds) Managing Mountain protected areas: Challenges and responses for the 21st Century. Andromeda Editrice.Colledara. Rachel, W., Arnell, N., Nicholls, Levy, R. P. and J.Price 2006: Understanding the Regional Impacts of Climate Change. Research Report Prepared for the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. Research Working Paper No. 90. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, Norwich. Regmi, B.R., 2005: Time for action on Climate Change, Nepal up in Smoke? CC Risk & Vulnerability in Nepal, LI-BIRD, Nepal Regmi, H. R., 2007: Effect of unusual weather on cereal crops production and household food security. The Journal of Agriculture and Environment, pp20-29 Shrestha, K.L., Shrestha, M.L., Shakya, N.M., Ghimire, M.L., Sapkota, B.K., 2003: Climate Change and Water Resources in Nepal In, Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia, Proceedings of year end workshop, Kathmandu, Nepal Shrestha, K.P., Vorosmarty, C.J. and Moore, B., 2001: Sensitivity of the Himalayan Hydrologic Trends in the Koshi Basin, Himalaya. In: Climate Change 47, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Netherland. Shrotriya, G.C. and Prakash, D., 2008: Climate Change and Agricultural CooperativesIFFCO Foundation, New Delhi UN, 1999: Common country assessment for Nepal. Kathmandu. United Nations. (available at www.un.org.np/res_cor/un_reform/cca/cca1999/cca1999.htm) UNDP, 2007: Human Development Report 2007/2008: Fighting climate change: human solidarity in a divided world, 1 UN Plaza, New York, New York, 10017, USA UNEP, 1998: Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies [J. F. Feenstra, I. Burton, J. B. Smith, R. S.J. Tol(eds)], UNEP Headquarters, Atmosphere Unit, Nairobi, Kenya

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ANNEX
ANNEX I: Change in Temperature
A. Dhunche

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64

B. Langtang

65

66

ANNEX II: Change in Precipitation


A. Dhunche

67

B. Langtang

68

C. Timure

69

70

ANNEX III: Change in Discharge

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ANNEX IV: Change in distribution of Temperature

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ANNEX V: Change in Distribution of Precipitation

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ANNEX VI: Land use Change

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ANNEX VII: Change in Agricultural Land

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ANNEX VIII: Questionnaire for the Analysis of Climate Change


Name of Data Collector: Date: A. Household Information Respondent Name : ........................................................ Caste/Ethnic Group : ........................................................ Sex : ........................................................ Age : ........................................................ Education : ........................................................ Occupation : ........................................................ Current Address (VDC/Ward) : ......................................................... Family size: Family size Below 10 year 11-45 years 45 and above Sex Male Female Male Female Male female Number Education 1 Income Source of family (Rank them): Agriculture Business Tourism Remittance

Hotel

Service

Other

2. Do you own agricultural land? Yes No If yes how much land do you own for agricultural practices? 3. Is your agricultural production sufficient to raise your family throughout the year? Yes No If yes, your agricultural production is enough for: A)less than 3 months b) 3-6months c) 7-11 month 4. How do you manage for rest of the time? Go outside for Aboard employment employment/porter Loan from neighbor Business

Domestic Animal selling other

B. Information on Climate Change (Precipitation, temperature, and hydrological event) 5. Have you experienced any changes in rainfall pattern over the last 10-20 years or so? Yes No I dont know If yes, what kind of change? Rainfall has increased

Rainfall has decreased

6. Have you noticed following changes in rainfall pattern? Longer period for rainy Shorter period & low rainfall seasons Unusual & untimely Delayed summer monsoon rainfall start Long drought Increase in hailstorm & windstorm 7. Have you noticed any significant change in snowfall pattern? Yes No

Heavy rainfall at once Decreased monsoon Others winter

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If yes, Increase in snowfall during winter Unusual and untimely snow falling

Decrease in snowfall during winter Others

8. Temperature is gradually increasing day by day. Yes No What is your personal experience regarding temperature change over past 10-20 years or so? Extreme cold during Days are becoming hotter No significant winter seasons during summer changes Extreme hot days Winter are less cold and Others frosty

9. What are the consequences of warmer winters/longer drought? Older and children find their villages more Housing construction has changed conformable live in winter due to less cold Tourism business are more profitable due to Others longer drought period in the post monsoon months 10. Have you noticed any significant changes in wind pattern? Yes No If yes, Strong wind blowing has increased Cold wind blowing has increased Others C. Impact and adaptation to agriculture 11. What are the major crops/vegetables/fruits and its production Cultivation Month Crop Type now Food Crops Pulses Vegetables before now before Production

Strong wind blowing has decreased Cold wind blowing has decreased

Cash Crop

Oil Seeds

Others(specify)

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12. What are the major livestock and holding? Animal Number

13. Have you noticed change in agricultural production over past 10-20 years or so? Yes No If yes, what kind of change you have noticed in agricultural production? Production has increased Production has decreased 14. Have you noticed change in agriculture in agricultural production? Yes No If yes, Crops now Before

15. Do you feel that warmer days have any significant effect on crops/fruits/vegetables growing? Bigger and testy food product Quality of food product decrease Take more time to grow Take short time to grow plant 16. What are the possible causes for changing the crops? Decrease in production of former crops New diseases and pest Lack of irrigation Price of seed raised 17. In your opinion what are the possible causes for decrease in agricultural production? Extreme weather condition Drought condition Soil erosion Landslide Diseases and pest Less availability of chemical fertilizer 18. IS there any government and non-governmental organizations working for the agriculture improvement program? Yes No Detail Name Working field

D. Water Resources: 19. What are the major source of water for drinking/Irrigation and other purpose? River or streams Spring Pond Rainwater Snows Other 20. Generally how much time you spent for fetching drinking water? Less than 15 min 30 min 1-3 hours More than 3 hours

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21. Have you noticed changes in water availability and quantity in water sources in the past and present? Yes No If yes, causes of water scarcity: Drying up springs/pond/river Low rainfall

Drought Abnormal rainfall/snowfall

22. What are the measures adopted to cope with water scarcity for drinking purpose? Rain water harvesting Water piping from distant water source Forestation Others(specify) 23. What are the measures adopted to cope with water scarcity for irrigation purpose? Rain water collection Construction of irrigation cannel Using waste water Others(specify) E. Forest and Biodiversity 24. The condition of nearby forest resource has: Forest is dense and wild animal has Forest is dense but decrease in wild increased species Condition of forest is same as before Forest is degraded and decrease in wild species 25. What are the major issues/concerns related to forest/biodiversity Forest Coverage is decreasing Less availability of fodder Scarcity of fuel wood Depletion of animals and birds Others(specify) 26. What are the major measures taken to solve the issues/concerns related to forest/biodiversity? CFU group take care of forest Plantation and preserve forest NTFPs Renewable energy resources Others (specify)

F. Natural Disaster 27. What are the most significant climate related disasters in your community? Landslide Flood Drought Soil Erosion Heavy Snowfall Hailstorm

Other

28. What do you think the major causes of land slide and flood? Abnormal rainfall Heavy rainfall Deforestation GLOF event Forest encroachment Others 29. What is the trend for occurrence of climate related natural disasters? Increased Decreased I dont Know 30. Which Natural Disaster has affected your community the most? . 31. What is the adverse impact caused by natural disasters in your family and community? Infrastructure loss Agriculture land Drinking water source Irrigation cannel Forest and wild animal Other

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32. What are the losses caused by natural disasters to your family and community over past 10 years? Losses in Detail Agriculture land Agriculture production Infrastructure Human life Loss of animal 33. Did people in your community migrated to other place due to natural disaster? Yes No If yes where, . 34. What helped you to recover the losses? Support from neighbor By selling ornament Loan Support from GOs and NGOs Other(Specify)

Remittance sent by family member Business Migration Self Help Group

35. What are the measures taken by community to overcome natural disaster? Forestation Conservation of forest Bio-engineering Embankment Other(specify) 36. Is there any network for communicating the news/warning of natural disaster? Yes No If yes what type of communication .. 37. What will be the serious issues for your community in coming days? Landslide & flooding by GLOF Depletion of forest Soil Erosion and loss in agriculture land Water scarcity Decreased agriculture production Migration Other(Specify)

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