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PERT CPM

# PERT CPM

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06/07/2013

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# PERT/CPM

PERT/CPM
Network models are used as an aid in the scheduling of large complex projects that consist of many activities.

Critical Path Method (CPM)  duration of each activity is known with certainty.  used to determine the length of time required to complete a project.  CPM can also be used to determine how long each activity in the project can be delayed without delaying the completion of the project.  CPM was developed in the 1950¶s.

used to estimate the probability that the project will be completed by the given deadline.Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)    duration of each project is not known with certainty. . PERT was developed around the same time as CPM.

. Events do not have a time duration per se. To reach an event. Project ± a collection of activities and events with a definable beginning and a definable end. checkpoint.Terminologies in PERT and CPM    Activity ± an effort that requires resources and takes a certain amount of time for completion. Event ± a specific accomplishment at a recognizable point in time. a milestone. all activities that precede it must be completed.

Critical Activity ± is an activity that. if even ritical slightly delayed. Network ± a logical and chronological set of activities and events. Critical Path ± sequence of critical activities that forms a continuous path between the start of a project and its completion. will hold up the scheduled completion date of the entire project. Path ± sequence of adjacent activities that form a continuous path between two events.    . graphically illustrating relationships among the various activities and events of the project.

Thus. that is. while PERT is basically a tool for planning and control of time. PERT is considered a probabilistic tool. tool. In CPM. there is only one estimate of duration. CPM can be used to control both the time and the cost of the project. based on a probability distribution of completion times.PERT vs CPM  PERT and CPM are very similar in their approach. three estimates are used to form a weighted average of the expected completion time of each activity. tool. Thus. however two distinctions are usually made between them. CPM is a deterministic tool.      . The first distinction relates to the way in which activity duration are estimated: In PERT. The second distinction is that CPM allows an explicit estimate of costs in addition to time.

if the project is to be finished in a shorter amount of time. or ahead of schedule at any particular date. . behind schedule. What is the probability that the project be completed by a specific date. If project is on schedule. if there are enough resources available to finish the project on time. Which activities are non-critical. or greater than the budgeted amount on any given date. less than. If money spent equal to. The best way to accomplish the project at the least cost. When will the entire project be completed. nonThe amount of slack (or float) on each non-critical float) nonactivity.A PERT / CPM program provides management with the following information:          What are the critical activities or tasks in the project.

Draw the network connecting all of the activities. 5. Use the network to help plan. 4. Sequence the activities Develop the relationships among the activities. schedule. . monitor. Compute the longest time path through the network. 6. Decide which activities must precede others. 2. known as the critical path. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity.PERT / CPM PROCESS 1. and control the project. Analysis of the project Define the project and all of its significant activities or tasks. 3.

Step 1 Define the problem Develop a Model Acquire input data Develop a solution Implement the results Test the solution Analyze the results .

E Inspect and test F.Step 2 Activity A B C D E F G H Immediate Predecessors Build internal components Modify roof and floor Construct collection stack A Pour concrete and install frame B Build high-temperature burner C highInstall control system C Install air pollution device D. G Description .

Step 3 Draw the PERT Network A Build internal components C Construct collection stack F Install control system Start E Build highhightemperature burner B Modify roof and floor D Pour concrete and install frame H Inspect and test Finish G Install air pollution device .

say . Optimistic time (a) = time an activity will take if everything goes as well as possible. of this occurring Pessimistic time (b) = time an activity would take assuming very unfavorable conditions. There should also be only a small probability that the activity will really take this long. There should be only a small probability. Most realistic time (m) = most realistic time estimate to complete the activity.Step 4 Activity Times  Estimates of the time required to complete each activity usually given in weeks.    .01.

 To determine the expected time (t) a  4m  b t! 6  To compute the dispersion or variance of activity completion time ¨ba ¸ var iance ! © ¹ ª 6 º 2 .

Time Estimates Pessimistic Expected Activity Optimistic Most (b) time (a) Probable (m) (t) Variance A B C D E F G H 1 2 1 2 1 1 3 1 2 3 2 4 4 2 4 2 3 4 3 6 7 9 11 3 2 3 2 4 4 3 5 2 4/36 4/36 4/36 16/36 36/36 64/36 64/36 4/36 .

ES = largest EF of immediate predecessors Earliest Finish Time (EF) is the earliest time at which an activity can end. the ff quantities should be determined: Earliest Start Time (ES) is the earliest time an activity can begin without violation of immediate predecessor requirements. any delay of an activity on the critical path will delay completion of the entire project. the length of some activity on the critical path should be reduced. EF = ES + t . Conversely.Step 5 Finding the critical path    Critical path is the longest time path route through the network To reduce the total project time. To find the critical path.

and LF have been determined. slack = LS ± ES or slack = LF . that each activity has. LS.  Slack is the length of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the whole project.Latest Finish Time (LF) is the latest time an activity can end without delaying the entire project. EF. it is a simple matter to find the amount of slack time. or free time.EF . Latest Start Time (LS) = LF ± t Latest Finish Time (LF) = smallest LS of following activities  Concept of Slack in Critical Path Computations  When ES.

and they are called critical activities and are said to be on critical path. G. none of them can be delayed without delaying the entire project. and H have no slack time. C. . thus. E.Schedule and slack times Earliest Earliest start finish Activity (ES) (EF) Latest start (LS) Latest finish (LF) Slack On critical path? A B C D E F G H 0 0 2 3 4 4 8 13 2 3 4 7 8 7 13 15 0 1 2 4 4 10 8 13 2 4 4 8 8 13 13 15 0 1 0 1 0 6 0 0 Y N Y N Y N Y Y A.

Critical path A 0 0 2 2 2 C 2 2 2 4 4 F 4 10 3 7 13 Start E 4 4 4 8 8 H 13 13 2 15 15 Finish B 0 1 3 3 4 D 3 4 4 7 8 G 8 8 5 13 13 .

PERT uses the variance of critical activities to help determine the variance of the overall project If the activity times are statistically independent.Probability of Project Completion     Critical path analysis helped us determine the expected project completion time. Variation in activities that are on the critical path can affect overall project completion ± possibly delaying it. the project variance is the summation of the variances of the critical activities project variance = 7 variances of activities on the critical path .

Wt !weeks due date = 16 weeks expected date of completion = 15 weeks Thus.6% chance that the project can be completed in 16 weeks or less.Computing the probability of project completion due date  exp ected date of completion Z! Wt where: Z is the number of standard deviations the due date or target date lies from the mean or expected date In the given data. Z = 0.57 which is equivalent to 71.6% This means that there is a 71. .

C.Step 6. D. E. Five activities (A.6% chance that the equipment will be in place within the 16-week deadline. H) are on the critical path. A detailed schedule of activity starting and ending dates has been made available. F) are not critical but have some slack time built in. This means that management can borrow from their resources. . G. possibly to speed up the entire project. If any one of them is delayed for any reason. PERT can easily 16find the probability of finishing by any date. What PERT was able to provide      The project¶s expected completion date is 15 weeks There is a 71. the entire project will be delayed. Three activities (B. if needed.

H I. D. writing letters. J G. and so on. H . making appointments to see prospective employers.Problem The Director of Personnel Management Resources. Inc. D. is in the process of designing a program that its customers can use in the job-finding process. E B. E F F G. researching companies and industries. Some of the activities include preparing resumes. Some of the information on the activities is shown in the ff table: Activity a A B C D E F G H I J K L 8 6 3 10 6 9 6 14 10 6 4 1 DAYS m 10 7 3 20 7 10 7 15 11 7 7 2 b 12 9 4 30 8 11 10 16 13 8 8 4 Immediate predecessors A C B.

LS.  Determine ES.  Determine the probability that the project will be finished in 90 days or less.  Determine the expected time and variance for each activity. EF.  Determine the probability that the project will be finished in 70 days or less. LF and slack for each activity.Questions: Questions:  Construct a network for this problem. .  Determine the probability that the project will be finished in 80 days or less.  Determine the critical path and project completion time.

CRITICAL PATH METHOD (CPM)      A deterministic network model Assumes that both time to complete each activity and the cost of doing so are known with certainty. . Crashing costs more and managers are usually interested in speeding up a project at the least additional cost. CPM calculations is the same as PERT¶s method. Uses two sets of time and cost estimates for activities:  normal time is like PERT¶s expected time  normal cost is an estimate of how much money it will take to complete an activity in its normal time  crash time is the shortest possible activity time  crash cost is the price of completing the activity on a crash or a deadline basis.

If the critical is still the longest path through the network. Select the activity on the critical path with the smallest crash cost per week. Crash this activity to the maximum extent possible or to the point at which your desired deadline has been reached. Find the normal critical path and identify the critical activities. a reduction in activity time along the critical path causes a noncritical path or paths to become critical. formula: crash cost/time period = crash cost ± normal cost normal time ± crash time 3. 2. If not. Compute the crash cost per week (or other time period) for all activities in the network using the ff. Often. return to step 3.Steps of Project Crashing 1. Check to be sure that the critical path you were crashing is still critical. 4. . find the new critical path and return to step 3.

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