Jae Jun

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The findings from this spreadsheet is merely a start to a means of further research and uncovering a great business and investment. Old
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0 $ $ 2.127.0 $ 12.0 $ 31.0 $ 13.0 $ 13.7% 6.6% $ 15.0 $ $ $ 5.211.954.014.0 $ 12.0 4.0 - $ $ $ 4.710.2% 185.0 Earnings Before Taxes $ 4.0 $ 1.0 $ $ 3.0 $ $ $ 2.9% 1.395.4 2859 Balance Sheet Assets Cash and Equiv Short-Term Investments Accts Rec Inventory Other Current Assets Total Current Assets $ $ $ 1.0 $ 38.7% 72.0 $ 18.862.0 $ 6.865.927.496.210.0 $ $ 3.399.724.0 $ 2.980.5 $ 2834 5.3% $ 13.995.0 $ 33.223.450.0 $ 61.0 $ 10.0 537.597.822.263.733.0 $ $ $ 6.9% $ 23.0 $ 10.104.0 $ $ 8.0 $ 10.278.0 3.442.0 4.317.0 2.8% $ Other Other (%) 2.242.0 6.556.324.298.7 $ 2963 300.2% 2.0 Total Assets $ 26.522.0 $ 31.0 $ 22.0 $ $ $ 4.643.329.0 0.0 $ 13.0 24.0 $ 15.0 $ $ 10.4% 294.336.0 $ 40.954.0 $ 9.712.0 $ $ 2.2% 8.0 $ $ $ 4.0 $ 3.9% $ 23.0 $ 6.487.853.4% (671.053.732.514.0 $ $ 5.175.0 $ 58.448.719.0 2.348.0 $ 12.955.869.661.560.0 6.509.821.0 $ 2.388.029.044.0 $ 28.509.0 $ 9.135.6 $ 2913 4.0 $ $ 18.0 $ $ 3.269.190.712.0 $ $ $ $ 5.0 $ 8.571.216.238.0 $ 27.0 5.0 $ 29.9% 71.195.6% 2.0 36.0 $ 11.0 $ 25.621.0 29.0 10.0 4.0 $ 5.7% 3.0 $ 5.240.185.0 $ 11.003.0 1.0 $ 17.0 $ 3.449.0 20.267.0 8.0 $ 31.473.0 Income Taxes $ 1.0 $ $ $ - $ 10.057.0 12.837.635.0 $ 19.0 $ 28.0 $ 8.565.0 7.266.5% $ 16.877.5 $ 3.256.0 $ 12.8% $ 12.0 11.2% 70.0 $ 31.724.245.0 7.389.017.674.0 $ 21.622.0 29.0 3.063.246.3% 5.377.0 $ 41.534.0 314.209.9% $ $ - Shares 4.162.0 $ 16.597.0 $ 53.318.2 $ 2.927.0 $ 3.0 $ $ 2.873.576.0 $ 37.140.355.0 5.0 30.471.0 206.0 1.0 $ 40.649.3% $ 12.0) $ -0.0 $ 7.0 $ $ 7.203.0 9.0 $ 11.0 $ 53.0 68.0 $ 70.0 - $ $ $ 4.670.1% 7.436.7% $ 10.0 $ 43.590.111.473.889.0 37.992.197.0 $ $ 3.0 $ 14.245.556.586.0 $ 6.0 $ 8.8% $ 15.0 28.433.0 7.0 37.830.0 $ 303.0 33.0 31.037.914.0 $ $ $ 2.451.139.861.163.0 $ 3.291.233.0 $ 4.283.450.0 $ - 4.7 $ 3.0 $ $ $ 4.004.001.3% 704.061.5 $ 3008 156.0 $ 18.808.0 $ 6.830.691.579.0 7.213.4 4.0 Income Statement 7.4% $ 20.0 $ 13.132.0 $ 19.093.319.1% $ 18.0 $ 3.0 1.0 $ 5.0 $ 4.0 $ 33.907.504.291.2% 1.156.0 $ 3.0 $ 14.0 2.0 1.0 $ 22.668.0 38.3% $ 13.230.0 $ $ 3.338.0 $ $ Other Short-Term Liabilities $ Total Current Liabilities Long-Term Debt $ $ 8.806.0 $ 10.0 $ 43.6 $ 3.0 $ $ $ 3.269.574.991.0 30.8 $ 2996 766.0 $ - $ 10.0% Operating Income $ 4.763.074.0 25.0 32.719.0 $ 6.022.859.370.422.208.898.4% Other Income and Expense Net Int Inc & Other $ 152.0 $ 58.0 $ 2.2% 34.0 2.0 $ - $ - - - .0 $ 10.0 1.744.0 Intangibles Other Long-Term Assets $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.167.0 940.044.502.0% 4.0 $ 3.0 $ $ $ 9.800.0 $ 2.308.0 $ 80.0 Net PP&E $ 11.546.0 $ 45.0 18.0 Other Long-Term Liabilities $ 3.0 - $ $ $ 6.0 $ 11.0 $ 6.503.095.719.0 $ $ $ 2.0 $ 13.0 565.5% 24.0 COGS COGS (%) $ $ $ $ $ 10.509.4% $ 13.630.1% 71.233.909.139.315.0 $ 8.0 6.0 $ 87.0 $ 14.0 223.4% (385.0 $ 29.8 $ 1.4% $ 20.0 $ 50.2% 1.849.8% $ 15.0 Total Liabilities & Equity $ 26.0 $ $ 7.4% $ 17.0 $ $ 2.488.0 4.7 $ 1.163.0 28.539.025.871.0 $ 1.0 $ 36.0 $ $ 17.0 4.0 $ 11.348.0 27.0 $ 48.7% Gross Profit (%) 8.0 $ $ 7.4% 71.842.0 3.621.161.753.211.0 $ 19.556.609.0 $ 11.010.0 Total Liabilities $ 12.0 $ 87.576.046.0 $ $ $ 5.059.0 $ 3.3% 69.0 $ 0.0 25.0 710.077.0 $ 5.621.694.0 $ 433.464.263.730.630.0 7.0 $ 12.5% 222.831.0 2.0 - $ 10.0 $ $ 16.861.959.0 $ 13.110.691.Company Name ticker JOHNSON & JOHNSON JNJ 2/18/2009 all figures in $Mil Financial Data JNJ 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 TTM Revenue $ 23.5% $ 21.0 7.3% 3.1% $ 13.0 $ 10.0 - $ $ $ 7.0 $ 20.0) $ $ 10.0 $ $ $ 6.456.0 $ 70.2% $ 10.053.635.707.9% $ 10.055.758.1% $ 3.734.0 $ 31.0 $ $ $ 5.0 - $ $ $ 8.0 $ 48.0 $ $ $ 3.083.0 $ (30.227.588.0 3.447.0 20.0 $ $ $ - $ 12.994.571.609. Cont Ops$ Diluted EPS$ - $ 3.0 $ 14.083.0 $ Operating Income (%) $ 17.975.0 8.688.990.954.0 $ 24.1% 534.0 $ 47.0 27.0% $ 12.363.468.219.0 $ 53.744.0 19.321.4 $ 2998 3.264.0 $ 9.0 $ 64.590.0 $ 12.0 $ 29.0 4.0 $ 14.0 $ 7.317.0 $ - 5.770.221.217.668.0 $ 16.463.9% $ $ 7.945.411.0 $ 2.0 $ 27.0 7.0 $ 2.0 5.0 2.117.0 7.0 $ 41.542.0 33.0 8.025.0 $ 6.167.0) $ -1.838.837.0 $ $ 17.883.0 $ $ 3.0 $ 15.279.751.0 $ 2.0% 15.0 0.488.0 668.838.7% $ $ 2.0 $ 13.800.926.0 6.0 1.2% $ 17.0 Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity Accts Payable Short-Term Debt Taxes Payable Accrued Liabilities $ $ $ 1.0 $ 233.0 Total Equity $ 13.303.506.587.411.0 29.0 $ 7.0 $ 36.971.0 $ 39.556.0 $ $ $ 2.0 458.5 $ 1.0 $ 37.0 $ 0.0 33.197.0 280.851.0 28.4% Operating Expenses SG&A SG&A (%) R&D R&D (%) $ 8.0 $ 7.394.2% $ $ 0 4.747.724.255.595.0 $ 38.0 13.0 2.0 33.3% $ 11.131.600.0 $ Earnings After Taxes Acctg Changes $ $ $ 3.8% 70.0 $ 14.095.012.6% 71.0 9.0 $ 26.059.0 $ 10.0 26.0 $ 22.0 $ 36.444.0 $ 29.454.0 17.0 1.992.0) $ -0.0 9.167.657.0 $ $ $ $ 4.626.399.0 $ 96.943.3% Gross Profit $ 16.0 $ 6.696.0 0.9% 70.842.334.697.0 206.536.0 $ $ 15.146.8% $ 21.344.0 2.0 $ 80.0 $ 49.0 $ $ $ - $ 11.0 $ $ $ 3.860.0 724.0 0.0 $ 3.0 21.7% $ 14.411.0 $ 13.320.0 944.950.0 28.0 1.602.0 $ 22.117.813.513.704.2 $ 3054 8.673.894.321.5% 1.384.154.200.0 $ 12.0 $ $ 3.0 9.0 $ $ - Disc Operations Ext Items Net Income $ $ Net Income (%) Diluted EPS.0 - $ - $ - $ - $ - 4.0 33.433.966.656.7 $ 2823 6.0 $ 45.0 33.8 $ 3080 7.0 $ 8.161.018.8 $ 2.1% $ 13.8% 9.0 $ $ $ 7.0 $ 38.875.846.479.0 $ 29.0 3.0 $ $ $ 2.0 10.684.644.0 5.686.0% 2.0 - $ $ $ 5.0 $ 28.0 $ 21.0 $ 3.394.439.4 $ 2.3% 69.176.2% (214.7% $ 19.5% 3.7% $ 20.6% $ $ 2.

0) 531.0 $ (1.669.0) $ (5.0 $ 398.458.347.0) $ (5.502.994.646.0 $ 4.0 $ 15.411.131.023.056.0) (98.869.0) $ Other $ (698.0 $ 11.500.666.0) $ $ 11.0) $ 408.0) $ 2.62 $ 12.176.0 Depr & Amort Deferred Taxes $ $ 1.0) $ $ (864.632.0 $ 14.0) $ 10.942.0) $ (3.0) $ (271.0 $ 1.0) $ 2.Cash Flows Statement Cash Flows From Operating Activities Net Income $ 3.176.109.27 14.0 $ 14.0 (1.0) $ (642.709.0) $ (2.526.666.0 $ (46.460.728.0 $ (1.0 (4.085.483.0 $ 11.697.0 $ 10.804.0) $ 8.726.877.0 $ 2.0 $ $ 3.813.0) $ (20.686.0 $ 6.0 $ $ $ 13.0) (805.00 .0) $ (681.0 $ (1.0 $ (2.521.0) $ (654.0) $ 369.746.992.0) (2.0) $ Free Cash Flow Book Value Per Share $ 2.0) $ (3.0 $ (74.124.0 $ 5.0 $ 1.0) $ (6.0) $ (3.0 (2.724.632.883.0) $ (68.237.0) $ (4.0) $ (2.0 $ $ 6.0) $ (2.0 $ 10.0) $ (1.378.809.96 $ 10.0 $ 11.0) $ (2.291.0 $ 8.0) $ $ $ $ (5.0) $ (3.0) $ (826.045.0) $ (9.0) (1.0 $ 8.605.731.197.0) $ $ $ $ (6.728.0) $ $ $ $ (872.0 $ 11.0 $ 1.0) $ (1.0) $ 818.221.0 $ 3.0 $ $ 12.87 16.0 $ 15.0) $ (4.0) $ (3.0) $ (1.295.0 $ $ 11.864.0 $ 8.677.262.0 $ (2.595.167.595.093.0 2.175.0 $ $ 7.0) $ (3.0) $ 4.444.0) $ (2.842.0 Cash Flows From Investing Activities Cap Ex Purchase of Business $ $ (1.0 $ 1.0) $ (21.248.0) 2.687.0 $ 10.609.0 $ (167.563.0) $ (2.0 $ (720.0) (1.0 $ 15.0) $ (478.0) $ 6.597.0) $ (4.0 (2.186.0) $ (225.0) $ (2.099.812.0 $ 73.864.139.762.0) $ (581.0) $ 380.0) 910.249.662.0) $ 5.0 $ (498.0 $ 1.176.513.677.826.0 $ (106.0) $ $ 15.267.654.0 (3.0) $ (4.639.668.618.249.66 $ 7.0 $ 8.646.479.251.564.0) $ (2.0 $ 8.148.048.131.0) $ 996.72 $ 6.0 #DIV/0! $ 5.246.0) $ (1.137.0) $ (577.0) $ (10.0 2.59 4.0 $ 10.381.576.0 $ 10.0) (410.972.0 $ (1.0) 1.0) (928.0) $ 3.251.0 $ (2.0) $ $ $ $ (7.942.388.0 $ (2.0) $ 2.168.0 Free Cash Flow Cash from Operations $ Cap Ex $ (1.942.0) $ (580.295.587.0 (3.093.148.0) $ (1.87 $ 7.0) Cash Flows From Financing Activities Net Issuance of Stock Net Issuance of Debt Dividends Other Cash from Financing Currency Adj Change in Cash $ $ $ $ $ $ $ (661.0 $ $ $ (11.0) $ $ $ $ (1.563.0) $ (6.0) 6.509.831.0) $ (2.800.0) $ (943.100.0) $ (2.294.852.0) (1.216.0 $ 5.777.0) $ (1.0 $ Cash from Operations $ 4.0 $ 10.877.0 7.0 $ $ (520.074.0 $ $ 6.0) $ Cash from Investing $ (5.542.0 $ (2.0 (2.0) $ 4.0) $ Other $ 820.0 $ 24.886.249.0 $ 5.0 $ 415.176.0) $ (1.411.059.0) $ (6.0) $ (4.0 2.047.793.510.0) 8.0) $ (1.175.0) $ (1.0 $ (7.0 $ 1.0) $ (18.248.0) 512.177.0 (279.021.0) $ 3.863.391.481.0 $ $ 5.515.262.670.892.731.0 (4.460.0) $ (2.0) $ (2.0) $ (2.305.0) $ (4.0 (2.0) $ (987.0) $ (1.0 $ 6.0) $ 3.340.0) $ (742.886.0) $ 2.0 $ 8.953.0) 352.197.934.0) $ (4.368.099.0 $ 1.845.330.0 $ $ 4.43 $ 8.0) $ 548.0 $ (239.646.0 2.0) $ (5.658.381.698.0) $ (2.053.

975.1% 70.9% 16.8 $ $ $ $ $ 50.9% 17.2% 27.5% 79.0 31.468.851.621.249.2% 14.2% 28.76 52Wk Low $52.0 1.9% 24.0 19.800.669.0% 17.0 $ 7.7% 16.0% 17.8% 0.9% 17.1% 71.0 13.156.9% 13.5% 16.0% 17.2% 12.0% 11.0 22.1% 16.2% 16.4% 71.139.4% 12.0% 66.0 25.0 19.0 11.044.0 $ $ 8.0% 27.0% 17.0 $ 2.4% 11.9% 31.5% 1999-2006 3.595.1% 10.0 $ 8.950.8 $ 36.859.5% 71.642.5% 14.0 15.344.2% 177.8% 37.0 12.059.0 38.4% 16.8% 13.7% 28.994.0 17.131.0% 27.3% 53.0 $ $ $ $ 22.7% 17.677.029.3% 16.635.0% 16.0 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Cash Flow Data Cash from Operations Free Cash Flow Balance Sheet Data Current Assets Current Liabilities Total Liabilities Tangible Shareholder Equity 27.7% 16.4% 71.0 $ 2.8% 15.2% 171.7% 29.5% 316.154.6% 15.448.7 $ $ 4.5 times 68.2% 29.0% 27.0 11.0 2.5% 9.1% 14.0 4.2% 28.0 $ $ $ $ 15.0% 27.4% 12.0 $ 23.0 8.394.576.1% 18.458.4% 25.0 $ 8.140.5% 71.4% 16.2% 14.06 2005 2006 2007 Income Sheet Data Revenue Gross Profit Operating Income Net Income Diluted EPS $ $ $ $ $ 23.971.0 $ 12.9% 78.0 $ 5.0% 2002-2007 1.630.686.161.0% 23.450.0 1.5 $ $ $ $ $ 53.0 $ 10.0 3.5% 16.0 Margins Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin Current Assets>1.0 $ 33.4% .2% 10.0 12.864.3% 20.1% 16.704.0% Discount % 9.84 22% Financial Data 2002 2003 2004 52Wk High $72.6% 2001-2006 -6.197.5% 19.0 5.7% 0.0 $ 9.9% 71.0 29.4% 11.3% 18.514.7% 1999-2004 18.3% 22.0% 28.8% 10.5% 16.0% 30.324.338.053.4% 25.6% 32.7% 1998-2005 22.2% 25.4% 4.7% 28.0% 1998 1999 2000 $ Price 55.0 $ 11.7% 16.127.8% 13.8% 25.542.394.471.7% 16.0 $ 15.7% 16.5% 216.618.9% 16.0 $ 25.0 $ $ $ $ 13.4% Median 10.0 $ 8.3% Efficiency & Profitability CROIC FCF/Sales Inventory Turnover Return On Assets (ROA) Retun On Equity (ROE) Debt Related Debt to Equity Capitalization Ratio FCF to Debt Multi-Year Performance Shareholder Equity Free Cash Flow CROIC FCF/Sales ROA ROE Revenue Growth Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin Earnings Growth Cash from Ops Growth 1998-2003 19.6% 11.560.451.0 $ 15.2% 25.454.5% 18.0% 17.595.0 5.473.0 3.9% 21.0 14.0 $ 10.862.449.7% 30.381.0 $ 8.5% 17.1% 272.161.0 3.668.0% 17.0 21.7 $ $ $ $ $ 61.195.6% 71.83 2001 Share Value Buy under Actual D/C % $ 71.0 19.8% 67.0 43.0 13.945.0 10.8% 29.5% 22.0% 25.5% 28.8% 79.8% 318.821.2% 16.0 $ 1.4% 25.0 13.0 4.0% 23.0 6.132.0% 15.8% 308.176.0 19.6% 11.411.2 $ $ $ $ $ 41.6 $ $ 8.2% 72.8% 11.2% 33.0 13.266.6% 16.6% 11.278.552.2% 229.1% 23.117.0 21.0 $ $ $ $ 11.0 13.0 $ 18.0 12.4% 12.0 - $ $ $ $ $ 27.8% 29.0 $ $ $ $ 19.4% 16.6% 18.0 11.0 $ 11.2% 5.509.7% 119.0 $ 6.1% 27.1% 28.389.0% 0.5% 28.2% 26.7% 27.9% 46.1% 69.0 29.563.0 $ 33.Company Name ticker JOHNSON & JOHNSON JNJ 2/18/2009 User Input Params User Growth all figures in $Mil Desired MOS 50% 12.5 $ $ $ $ $ 29.5% 39.8% 2000-2005 17.167.0 3.7% 8.6% 79.411.9% 17.0% 17.255.0 10.0 $ $ 10.348.3% 17.0 7.248.8% 15.4% 17.635.330.0 7.2% 25.2% 168.0% 2000-2007 3.995.1% 30.3% 58.657.0 5.830.267.7% 16.3% 13.8% 15.1% 29.2% 25.9% 13.845.6% 21.7% 28.1% 352.3% 151.5% 28.0 4.564.926.9% 16.0% 71.2% 17.6% 18.927.9% 136.0 8.0 37.4% 16.7% 12.6% 7.2% 0.200.0 20.5% 16.9% 27.238.0% 25.8% 86.9% 16.0 4.7% 17.2% 71.2% 28.0% 262.0% 13.4% 16.696.3% 71.9% 8.00% Growth 12.0 10.9% 14.0 20.5% 28.0% 347.0 31.0 13.4% 28.9% 33.0 7.1% 15.1% 29.877.1% 42.4% 14.6% 12.837.0 6.3% 30.4% 16.162.0 $ 14.0 10.0 16.9% 70.0 12.0% 71.6% 28.6% 92.6% 248.0 36.556.004.804.298.504.3% 70.0 $ $ 6.320.513.0% 311.0 $ 14.095.3% 339.8% 8.4% 16.6% 14.4% 9.886.0 3.9% 20.0% 11.0% 26.2% 25.3% 14.597.67 $ 35.0 $ $ 5.4 $ 47.4% 26.2% 20.0 2.883.2% 16.3% 12.6% 9.0 6.0% 196.4% 69.223.2% 19.4% 38.9% 358.8% 28.6% 71.

0% 0.83 22% $ $ $ $30.0 $2.0% 20.67 50% 35.4% 71.5% 23.1% 69.696.000.660 2018 27.114 2009 13.0% 30.0% Operating Margin Net Margin 40.2% 17.7% 70.0% 2002 2003 2004 26.0% 10.0% 20.000.0% 1998 Efficiency & Profitability Debt 50.0 $6.0 $15.0% $ Growing at 3% $ 2008 11.845.346 2016 $23.156.0% 15.0 Shareholder Equity $19.377 Free Cash Flow and Tangible Shareholder Equity Trend $ 208.0% Debt to Equity Capitalization Ratio FCF to Debt 90.48 2025 $ 33.9% 20.517 2013 $19.994.0 $10.0% Gross Margin 50.0% 17.0% 80.323.627 2020 28.0 $15.8% 70.556.3% 24.381.0% 35.03 2021 $ 29.330.0$10.2% 21.8% 15.347 2017 $26.2% 20.0% 17.0% 30.2% 71.0 $5.628 Company Valuation Total Value Shares Outstanding Per Share Value Margin of Safety Purchase Price Current Price Actual Discount 2012 $17.0% 60.866.411.0 $13.263.0% 68.642.Projection of future Free Cash Flow Growing at 12.90 2026 $ 34.4% 12.0 $25.385.669.0 $4.343.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 .0 FCF $25.542.0 $8.2% 18.780 2913 71.5% 17.630.0 $3.31 2023 $ 31.9% 20.0 $10.0 $1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Margin Percentages 80.0% 0.0 $20.7% 18.0 $15.458.883.0% 25.0% 40.0 $11.375 2015 $21.0% 70.3% 71.765 2011 $15.618.9% 72.971.0 $5.991.0% CROIC 45.0 $10.91 2027 $ 35.2% 1999 2000 2001 27.432 2014 $21.552.9% 16.0 $8.451.804.66 2022 $ 30.3% 10.0 $14.0 $5.0% 40.000.0% 2007 FCF/Sales ROA ROE 100.0% 10.0% 5.0% 50.564.1% 25.7% 2005 2006 21.84 55.75 2024 $ 32.3% 71.691.0% 70.000.060 2019 27.000.0% 20.6% 25.0% 0.927 $ $ $ $ 2010 14.6% 69.0% 30.9% 60.0 $6.000.0 $8.

67 Buy under $ Actual D/C % 52Wk High 35.0% 9% Price $ Share Value 55.Company Name ticker JOHNSON & JOHNSON JNJ 2/18/2009 all figures in $Mil Desired MOS Growth Discount % 50% 12.83 $ 71.76 52Wk Low $ 52.84 22% $ 72.06 Historical Stock Price Vs Intrinsic Value Per Share 80 Historical Price Intrinsic Value Buy Price Linear (Historical Price) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 3/2/1998 3/2/1999 3/2/2000 3/2/2001 3/2/2002 3/2/2003 3/2/2004 3/2/2005 3/2/2006 3/2/2007 3/2/2008 .

60 $ 2.36 $ 2.03 2001-2004 2002-2005 2003-2006 2004-2007 Median (1998-2007) 13.72 $ 3.83% 8.57% 17.3% 15.1% 15.08 $6.47 $1.Company Name ticker JOHNSON & JOHNSON JNJ 2/18/2009 all figures in $Mil User Input Params Desired MOS Growth 66% 12.88 55.40 $1.87 3.0% 1998 $ Diluted EPS $ Earnings Growth EPS Weighted Average Earnings Growth EPS Weighted Average 2008 4.00 EPS Linear (EPS) $5.86 14.17 $ 2011 5.84 $3.45 Price $ Actual DC% Share Value 55.40 $ 2.40 $ 1999 1.83 49% $3.52% $2.78 $ 2010 5.79 $ 2.46 $ 2006 3.63 2006 2007 $2.7% 12.00% 5.09 12.42 Company Stats Normal Earnings Expected 5 Year Growth 20 yr AA Corp Bond Rate Book Value Per Share Price to Book Ratio Enterprise Value Per Share $ 4.01% 15.63 Multi-Year Performance 1998-2003 1999-2004 2000-2005 2001-2006 2002-2007 1998-2001 1999-2002 2000-2003 0.16 $2.47 Earnings 2002 2003 $ 2.07 $ 2.84 2000 2001 $2.47 66.9% 0.00 Company Valuation $3.25 $ 1.70 $1.0% 14.00 $4.9% 15.84 $ 2009 4.00 $$1998 1999 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2009 .0% 13.88 $ Net Net Working Capital 3.00 $2.74 $ P/B Ratio 49% 36.74 $ 3.73 $4.00 $3.78 $1.84 $ (6.83 Buy under $ 108.2% $ 1.04 $ 1.05) 2005 3.11 $ 3.75 66.31 $ 2.16 $ 2.46 Per Share Value $ Desired MOS Purchase Price Current Price Actual Discount $ $ 108.45 $4.47 $ 2000 1.75 $ 2004 2.00% 36.2% 10.73 $ 2007 3.70 $ 2001 1.

5 Yr.29 11.49 Revenue/Employee (TTM) Net Income/Employee (TTM) 0 0 0 0 0 0 606370 86688 0 0 440281 84398 2444586 166242 NA NA Receivable Turnover (TTM) Inventory Turnover (TTM) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11.5 Yr.47 1.97 1.33 16.62 19.39 4.76 8.88 3.28 17.83 54. Avg.43 5.45 26.45 20.38 24.59 -22.75 1.36 10.15 20. Pre-Tax Margin (TTM) Pre-Tax Margin .05 20.9 51.31 19.91 1.57 1 1 1 1 19.06 12.17 5.29 68.Company Name ticker JOHNSON & JOHNSON JNJ 2/18/2009 Enter Competitor Tickers Into Boxes Below all figures in $Mil JNJ ABT BMY PG BSX NVS Industry Ranking 55.83 3.48 28.55 73.3 -19.33 2.01 23. Growth Rate Capital Spending .17 0.7 51.5 Yr.98 0 1.16 22.08 12.48 0.41 21.03 19.08 -5.14 1.83 17.43 116.94 66.96 18.300 149.95 8.79 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.22 1.18 8 2.83 2.19 2.04 1. Avg.93 -426.53 15.54 16.43 1. Avg.59 5.54 3.5 Yr.76 -6.96 57.39 10.5 Year Avg.5 0 0 17.12 1.32 13.5 Yr.5 Yr.5 Yr.64 16.52 0 0 0 0 0 0 18. Growth Rate 8.67 2.46 -25.77 13. Ago Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr.74 0 -0.28 6.7 2 Gross Margin .7 25.13 0.65 0 0 10.46 27.15 11.57 13.8 80.900 84.44 2.51 22.08 0 15.92 50.45 0.86 2.59 -2.5 Yr Avg Return On Equity (TTM) Return On Equity .43 10. Ago 17.59 2.330 12.76 1.900 NA NA P/E Ratio (TTM) 12.37 0 3 3 Stock Price Market Cap (millions) Valuation Ratios Dividends Growth Rates Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr.53 2.27 12.32 0.38 4 Price to Sales (TTM) 2.01 0 14.11 -4. Net Profit Margin (TTM) Net Profit Margin .27 723.14 13.54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.57 3 3 Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate Payout Ratio (TTM) 14.63 0.46 14.6 4 26.4 31.6 0 11.79 13.95 50.95 0.74 2.5 Yr.78 2.01 9.8 16.63 15. Ago EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr.75 0 13.84 4.31 2 14 18.24 0.23 2.04 -3.59 1.82 3.5 Yr. 1 1 Management Effectiveness Return On Assets (TTM) Return On Assets .61 3.33 18.04 19. Ago Financial Strength Quick Ratio (MRQ) Current Ratio (MRQ) LT Debt to Equity (MRQ) Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) Profitability 0 0 0 23.5 0 68.22 0.2 20.31 22.5 Yr.81 5 EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr.77 11.42 -25.02 4 Gross Margin (TTM) 70.16 19.63 -10.09 2. Avg.09 11.13 0. Return On Investment (TTM) Return On Investment .52 1. Avg.29 2.48 5.7 -8 -5. Growth Rate 13.78 -315.72 3.13 -12.9 NA NA 154.56 25.56 21.17 -9.08 NA NA EBITD . 3 3 3 3 3 3 Efficiency Asset Turnover (TTM) 4 .14 8. Operating Margin (TTM) Operating Margin .46 41.45 0 55.04 73.89 5 2 Sales .24 4 2 Price to Cash Flow (TTM) Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.03 0.61 -14.03 26.69 31.34 14.27 4.64 1.33 73.56 25.4 0 0.97 3 -4.68 22.87 13.7 69.96 20.8 61.03 20. Avg.78 7.56 21.97 0 3 4 EPS .44 10. 1 Yr.74 21.100 41.18 1.21 1.05 -7.47 0 41. EBITD Margin (TTM) 71.51 1.89 2 Price to Book (MRQ) Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2. 3. Avg.62 10.88 3 3 Dividend Yield Dividend Yield .05 NA 0 4.55 0.03 26.700 94.74 3.51 18.68 -9.71 23.18 12.46 10.69 4.28 4 4 4 0 0 0 66. 1 Yr.38 0 51.29 2.27 17.46 0.46 9.37 13.85 15.57 2 0 0 0 39.

5% 25.4% 25.1% 15.6% 10.0% 20.9% 9.8% -3.5% 8.5% 6.0 1.66 0.2 2.3% 11.3 2.4% -8.7% -% Change -17.6% -26.7 1.3% 3.4% 28.8% -9.66 0.5% 6.9% Return on Assets (ROA) Return on Equity (ROE) 18% 14% 16% 16% 15% 16% 13% 15% 15% 14% 27.3% 7.70 0.60 0.8 1.7% 26.9% 8.2% -% Change -16.57 0.6% -7.4% -8.0% 6.0% -0.9% 1.63 0.9 1.5 2.5% 25.2 1.3% 33.2% 29.8 1.5% -5.6 1.8% 4.77 0.4% 25.7% -10.5% 28.6% -9.8% 8.0% 14.5 2.1% 29.2 1.6% 17.5% 9.9 1.8% 32.2 1.6 1.5% Now 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 13.7 1.7% 1.57 0.4% 6.5 1.8% -16.9% 24.93 0.8 1.64 0.3% -% Change -16.7 1.3% -6.9% 7.3 0.4 1.4 1.3% 7.7% 4.8% 14.7 1.77 0.5% 2008/09 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 14% 13% 16% 18% 16% 15% 16% 15% 15% 14% 12% -12.0 -56.5% 26.2 2.8% 8.7% 14.8% -% Change 25.7% 26.1% 8.8% 35.70 0.4% 5.5% 2.66 0.4 1.1% 8.1% 23.6% 7.4% 6.0% 10.6% 12% 28.1% 15.5% 10.7% 5.6% Now 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 0.7% 26.6% -18.4 1.64 0.5% 26.4 1.6% 9.Earnings Yield 0.3% 17.93 13.7% 22.0 1.4 -51.6% 16.0% 0.7 1.6% -% Change 32.9% -3.Company Name ticker JOHNSON & JOHNSON JNJ 2/18/2009 Net Profit Margin Cash Flow (Continuing Operations) 21% 20% 21% 18% 17% 17% 18% 17% 15295 16% 15249 14248 15% 11877 13% 11131 10595 8176 8864 6563 5677 4886 TTM 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 20% 17% 21% 21% 18% 17% 18% 17% 16% 15% 13% 0.7 2.70 0.2 1.4% 27.6% 7.9 2.5% 10.2% -% Change -13.6% 14.2% -% Change Magic Formula Investing -.6% 2008/09 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 27.1% 24.5 1.4 1.3 2.7% 1.6% .1% 27.4 1.7% 22.4% -7.4 2008/09 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 1.4 1.0% 22.3 0.8 1.Return on Capital Magic Formula Investing -.3% 8.70 0.4% 16.8% -2.0 2008/09 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 1.1% 22.66 0.2% 3.2% Current Ratio Quick Ratio 2.6% 17.5% TTM 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 15295 15249 14248 11877 11131 10595 8176 8864 6563 5677 4886 7.63 0.2% -0.0% 30.1% 23.6% -9.77 10.7% 6.6% 24.8% 29.2% -% Change 18.60 0.9% 7.77 61.5% -27.9 2.8% 29.

4% 0 13% Median FCF growth positive and consistent Median FCF/Sales 10% 28.9% 1 Criteria over 10yrs Points Value Cash growth from Operations CROIC is postive and capable of paying off financing 15% 13.5 1 N/A 3.9% > 10% 27.5 x current liabilities Price to Book ratio < 2 Debt to Equity FCF to Debt Capitalization Ratio Intangibles % of assets 1. Profit and Growth Criteria over 10yrs Median Revenue growth 10% Median Gross Margin Median Operating Margin Median Net Margin Median EPS growth Business and Management Performance Value Points Value 30% 11.2% 1 1 15% 25.4% 14.3% 71.6% User Points N/A N/A Points Value User Points 1 1 1 0 User Points N/A .Company Name ticker JOHNSON & JOHNSON JNJ 2/18/2009 all figures in $Mil Company Assessment: Quantitative Valuation Criteria over 10yrs Points User Points DCF Valuation Discount > 25% or 50% depending on moat 22% 1 1 Graham Intrinsic Value Discount > 66% 49% 0 Margins.6% 2 1 Consistent over 10yrs 16.75 N/A < 100% 86.5 x current liabilities > 1.7% N/A 2 Consistent ROE (manually check) Consistent ROA (manually check) Consistent over 10yrs N/A Balance Sheet 7% Criteria for TTM Current assets > 1.6% 1 10% 13.7% < 30% < 15% of assets 14% 32.0% 1 10% 17.

manufacture and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field.Company Assessment: Qualitative Johnson & Johnson is engaged in the research and development. Competitive Advantage Comment Stable market share? 2 Max Points max 2 Dominant company in industry. 0 for fast industry) Can company adapt to changing industry environment? Industry leader or lagger? (1 for leader. Robert Reid.. Inc. which is a cardiovascular device company. 0 for yes) 0 1 1 max max max max max Business Model Growth due to: a) existing product / existing market b) existing product / new market c) new product / existing market d) new product / new market Comment (yes/no) (yes/no) (yes/no) (yes/no) a) No b) Yes c) Yes d) Yes User Points 1 0 max 2 1 1 2 1 1 Management High insider ownership? Candid management on positives and negatives? Management performance at previous jobs? Compensation levels compared to sales? Comment User Points 1 1 1 1 Max Points max 1 max 1 max 1 max 1 Industry Boring industry? (1 for slow. trademarks) 1 1 High switching costs? 1 max 2 Network effect? E. In October 2008.g. Not Weighted. with new drug delivery technology. During fiscal 2007. RISPERDAL and REMICADE. eBay 0 max 2 User Points Max Points 1 max 2 Able to increase prices and retain customers? Compete on price? (1 for no.. segment? Low barriers to entry and exit? 2 max 2 max 2 Experience goods (brand effect. 0 for lagger) Comment User Points Max Points 1 1 0 max 1 max 1 max 1 Psychological Factors to Consider. accounted for approximately 6% and 5% of Johnson & Johnson�s total revenues. Johnson & Johnson has more than 250 operating companies. 0 for concentrated) Involved in competition? Monopoly. which is a social media company. Inc. In December 2008. which is a Japanese orthopedic product distributor. during the fiscal year ended December 30. crowded Company has a recurring revenue stream? Capital intensive company? (1 for no. compare to peers maybe no no no no no no no no no no no . Inc. Inc. The Company operates in three segments: Consumer.. and Maya�s Mom. duopoly. graham. Johnson & Johnson acquired Omrix Biopharmaceuticals. 0 for yes) 1 1 max 1 max 1 Barriers of entry to the business? Diverse customers? (1 for diverse. Inc. Sales of the Company's two largest products. and Medical Devices and Diagnostics. Comment Recency bias? Hindsight bias? Framing issues correctly and in different manners? Is there a data framing bias? Am I too overconfident on the situation? Performed probability analysis for -ve factors? Too much loss aversion? Sunk cost mentality? Slow in changing opinion? Psychological denial ? Bias from commitment and consistency tendency? Pavlovian association? Social proof bias? Status quo bias? False consensus bais? no no DCF. respectively. the Company acquired HealthMedia. the Company acquired three companies: Conor Medsystems. Pharmaceutical. 2007 (fiscal 2007).

0 1.0 Management 5.0 4.0 Low Risk 5.0 2.0 3.0 Strong Moat 4.0 5.Category Total Points out of 5 Valuation Margins.0 Low Risk High Growth Under Valued 4. Profit and Growth Business and Management Performance 1.0 4.0 Good Financial Health Under Valued Well Managed .0 3.0 JNJ Well Managed Good Financial Health Strong Moat 4.0 4.5 4.0 High Growth 2.0 0.9 3.0 Balance Sheet Competitive Advantage Business Model 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 4.

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