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Roland Berger Strategy Consultants - Trend Compendium 2030

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants - Trend Compendium 2030

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Published by: fnetolab on Aug 22, 2011
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12/08/2012

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Market potential of the middle class

50

3.SCENARIO TECHNIQUES

>As the development of a globalized world does not follow a linear trend that can be easily
extrapolated, and the future cannot be predicted with great accuracy, scenario
techniques are becoming more and more important
>Selecting the most appropriate scenario gives companies great advantages over
competitors with no scenario planning, since it enables them to react quickly, objectively
and rationally
. This will be key in a fast-moving world. Scenarios for market entry or
expansion can be planned and calculated according to different criteria such as GDP
growth, FDI and so on
>Besides analyzing opportunities, scenario techniques can also be used to reduce risks.
As regional events quickly attain international relevance in a globalized world, it becomes
increasingly difficult to predict economic downturns. Because most globalized companies
will be affected by e.g. an international crisis, it is a question of who is best prepared
and who recovers most
. It will be about acting fast and taking the right action.
Early indicatorsfor each scenario therefore need to be defined and analyzed to
identify the future scenario as quickly as possible and take the right action

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