Petroleum Economics

Istvan Csato Department of Geological Sciences University of South Carolina January 2002 Source: EIA

World Oil Demand

Oil Consumption

Declines:
Oil embargo, 1973 Revolution in Iran, 1979 Economic crisis in Asia and FSU, 1997-98

World Oil Demand

Increments in Oil Consumption by Region
Largest increase: Asia

World Oil Demand

Oil Consumption per Capita by Region
Declines:
Industrialized countries: oil price crises EE/FSU: collapse of communism Developing countries: no decline

World Oil Demand

Oil Intensity by Region
Continuous decline

World Oil Demand

Oil Consumption by Sector
Main area of growth:
Industrialized countries: Transportation Developing countries: Other uses

World Oil Demand

Oil Consumption in the Developing World
Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020:
China: 6.1 MBD South Korea: 1.2 MBD India: 3.9 MBD Middle East: 5.3 MBD Africa: 2.9 MBD Central and South America: 4.7 MBD

World Oil Demand

Oil Consumption in the Industrialized World
Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020:
USA: 6.3 MBD Mexico: 2.2 MBD Canada: 0.3 MBD Western Europe: 1.5 MBD Japan: 0.35 MBD

World Oil Demand

Oil Consumption in EE/FSU
Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020:
FSU: 4.1 MBD Eastern Europe: 0.2 MBD

World Oil Supply

World Oil Supply

World Oil Supply

World Oil Supply

World Oil Production by Region
More than 2/3 of increase in oil demand will be supplied by OPEC

World Oil Supply

OPEC Oil Production
Projected growth rate: 3.4% per year

World Oil Supply

OPEC and Non-OPEC production

World Oil Supply

Non-OPEC production by Region, 2020

World Oil Supply

Top World Oil Producers, 2000 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 11) 12) 13) 14) 15) 16) 17) 18) Country Saudi Arabia United States Russia Iran Mexico Norway China Venezuela United Kingdom Canada Iraq United Arab Emirates Kuwait Nigeria Indonesia Brazil Libya Algeria Production Estimates (million bbl/d) 9.12 9.08 (5.83 of which was crude oil) 6.71 3.81 3.48 3.32 3.25 3.14 2.75 2.74 2.59 2.51 2.25 2.15 1.56 1.54 1.47 1.43

Red: OPEC member Blue: Non-OPEC member

World Oil Supply

Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2000 Country 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 11) 12) 13) Saudi Arabia Russia Norway Venezuela Iran United Arab Emirates Iraq Kuwait Nigeria Mexico Libya Algeria United Kingdom Net Exports (million bbl/d) 7.84 4.31 3.11 2.66 2.59 2.18 2.09 2.05 1.86 1.44 1.29 1.22 1.06

Red: OPEC member Blue: Non-OPEC member

World Oil Supply

Oil Reserves

NonOPEC 44%

OPEC 56%

814 B bbl

Total: 1030 B bbl

World Oil Trade