.

V. M. Rao Tumala

, 2001.

1.

1.1
1.2
1.3

,


1.3.1
1.3.2

1.4

1.4.1
1.4.2
1.4.3

1.5
1.6

1.6.1
1.6.2
1.6.3
1.6.4

1.7
1.8
1.9

2.

2.1

,
2.1.1
2.1.2
2.1.3
2.1.4

2.2

2.2.1
2.2.2

,

2.2.2.1
2.2.2.2
2.2.2.3

MAXIMIN
MINIMAX
MAXIMAX

2.2.2.4
2.2.2.5
2.2.3

:

2.2.3.1
2.2.3.2

2.2.4
2.2.5

LaPlace-

MINIMAX

:

2.2.5.1 :

2.2.5.2 MINIMAX
:

2.3

2.3.1
2.3.2
2.3.3

BAYES-
2.3.3.1
2.3.3.2
2.3.3.3

2.3.4
2.3.5
2.3.6
2.3.7
2.3.8
2.3.9
2.4

2.4.1
2.4.2
2.4.3
2.4.4

3.

3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6

,
?


:

4.

4.1

4.1.1
4.1.2
4.1.3
4.1.4
4.1.5

4.1.5.1
4.1.5.2
4.1.5.3
4.1.5.4

4.1.6
4.2

5.1
5.2

,
FUZZY
5.2.1
5.2.2
5.2.3
5.2.4
5.2.5

5.3

fuzzy
Fuzzy
Fuzzy
Fuzzy
Fuzzy

5.3.1
5.3.2
5.3.3
5.3.4
5.3.5
5.3.6
5.3.7

6.

4.2.1
4.2.2
4.2.3
4.2.4
4.2.5
4.2.6

5.

ROUGH SET LIBRARY

6.1

6.1.1
6.1.2
6.1.3

6.1.3.1
6.1.3.2

6.1.4

6.1.4.1
6.1.4.2

6.2

6.2.1
6.2.2

,
ELECTRE
6.2.2.1
6.2.2.2 ELECTRE
6.2.2.3

6.2.3 PROMETHEE
6.2.3.1 PROMETHEE
6.2.3.2
6.2.3.3
PROMETHEE
6.2.3.4 PROMETHEE
6.2.4

(AHP)
6.2.4.1 ?
6.2.4.2
6.2.4.3 AHP

7.

7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.7

7.7.1
7.7.2

7.8

7.8.1
7.8.2
7.8.3

7.8.4
7.8.5
7.8.6
7.8.7
7.8.8
7.8.9

1:
2:

2.1
2.2
2.3

2.4

2.4.1
2.4.2
2.4.3
3:

3.1

3.2

:

3.2.1

3.2.2

4:
5:
6:

6.1
6.2
6.3

6.4
6.5

6.6

 6.6.1
6.6.2
6.6.3
6.7

6.7.1

6.7.2

6.8
JOHNSON-

7:

7.1


7.2

7.3

7.4

DECISION MAKING: FORMAL APPROACH

CONTENTS:
PREFACE
INTRODUCTION
1.

THE BASIC CONCEPTS OF DECISION THEORY

1.1
1.2
1.3

CHAPTER AND LEARNING OBJECTIVES AND KEY WORDS

AN OVERVIEW OF DECISION THEORY
THE ANALYSIS OF DECISION PROBLEMS
1.3.1
1.3.2

1.4

The System Approach to Decision Making

The Basic Characteristics of Decisions

THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS

1.4.1 The Nature of Decision Making Process
1.4.2 Terms and Definitions
1.4.3 A Typology of Decisions

1.5
1.6

THE PHASES OF DECISION MAKING PROCESS

MODELS AND MODELING
1.6.1
1.6.2
1.6.3
1.6.4

1.7
1.8
1.9

2.

Models
The Types of Models
Modeling
The Decision Making Models

THE CHOICE OF THE METHODS AND TECHNIQUES

THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MODELS
THE SCOPE OF DECISION MAKING

DECISION ANALYSIS
2.1

THE BASICS OF DECISION ANALYSIS

2.1.1
2.1.2
2.1.3
2.1.4

2.2

Chapter Objectives, Learning Objectives and Key Words

Introduction to Decision Analysis
Models of Decision Analysis
Decision Making under the Certainty

DECISION MAKING WITHOUT SAMPLING

2.2.1
2.2.2

Chapter Objectives, Learning Objectives and Key Words

Decision Analysis without Prior Probabilities
2.2.2.1
2.2.2.2

MAXIMIN Criterion
MINIMAX Regret Criterion

2.2.2.3
2.2.2.4
2.2.2.5
2.2.3

Decision Analysis with Prior Probabilities:

Two Action Problems
2.2.3.1
2.2.3.2

2.2.4
2.2.5

Expected Monetary Value Criterion

Expected Regret Criterion

Expected Value of Perfect Information

Decision Analysis with Prior Probabilities:
Multiaction Problems
2.2.5.1
Tables
2.2.5.2

2.3

MAXIMAX Criterion
Maximum Likelihood Criterion
LaPlace's Criterion

Expected Monetary Value Criterion: Profit or Cost

Expected Regret Criterion: Regret Tables

DECISION ANALYSIS WITH SAMPLING

2.3.1
2.3.2
2.3.3

Chapter Objectives, Learning Objectives and Key Words

Introduction
Applying Bayes's Rule and Selecting the Optimal Strategy
2.3.3.1 Collecting New Data
2.3.3.2 Conditional Probabilities
2.3.3.3 Determine the Optimal Action Given the Sample
Information

2.3.4
2.3.5
2.3.6
2.3.7
2.3.8
2.3.9
2.4

DECISION TREE AND SEQUENTIAL DECISION MAKING

2.4.1
2.4.2
2.4.3
2.4.4

3.

Optimal Strategy or Optimal Decision Rule

Expected Risk of the Optimal Strategy
Expected Value of Sample Information
Expected Net Gain Due to Sample Information
Optimal Sampling Plan
The Quality Control Case Study Example

Chapter Objectives, Learning Objectives and Key Words

The Case Without Sampling
The Case With Only One Sample
The Sequential Case

RISK ANALYSIS
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6

CHAPTER AND LEARNING OBJECTIVES AND KEY WORDS

WHAT IS THE RISK ?
DEFINITION OF THE RISK
SCENARIO OF THE RISK ANALYSIS
PROJECT EVALUATION: TRADITIONAL METHODS
VS. THE APPLICATION OF THE RISK ANALYSIS METHOD
ADVANTAGES AND LIMITATIONS OF RISK ANALYSIS

4.

UTILITY THEORY
4.1

SINGLE ATTRIBUTE UTILITY THEORY

4.1.1
4.1.2
4.1.3
4.1.4
4.1.5

Chapter Objectives, Learning Objectives and Key Words

Introduction
Utility in Decision Making
The Basic Concepts
The Utility and Its Measurement
4.1.5.1
4.1.5.2
4.1.5.3
4.1.5.4

4.1.6
4.2

Chapter Objectives, Learning Objectives and Key Words

The Analysis of Multiattribute Problems
The Basics of Multiattribute Utility Theory
The Structure of Utility Functions
The Multiattribute Utility Method with Additive Form
Summary

NEW APPROACHES IN TREATING THE UNCERTAINTY

5.1
5.2

CHAPTER AND LEARNING OBJECTIVES AND KEY WORDS

FUZZY SYSTEMS
5.2.1
5.2.2
5.2.3
5.2.4
5.2.5

5.3

Basic Terms in Fuzzy Set Theory

Fuzzy Number
Fuzzy Mathematical Programming
Fuzzy Linear Programming
Fuzzy Logic

ROUGH SETS
5.3.1
5.3.2
5.3.3
5.3.4
5.3.5
5.3.6
5.3.7

6.

Some Mathematical Forms of Utility Functions

MULTIATTRIBUTE UTILITY THEORY

4.2.1
4.2.2
4.2.3
4.2.4
4.2.5
4.2.6

5.

The Expected Utility

The Characteristic of Utility Functions
The Development of Utility Functions
The Basic Types of Utility Functions

Basic Concept of the Rough Set Theory

Basic Relations in the Rough Set Theory
The Rough Membership Function
Reduction of Knowledge and Dependencies
The Credibility Factor
The Rough Set Library Software
Illustrative Example

MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MAKING

6.1

THE BASICS OF MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MAKING

6.1.1
6.1.2
6.1.3

Chapter Objectives, Learning Objectives and Key Words

Introduction
Multiple Attribute Decision Making
6.1.3.1 Transformation of Attributes
6.1.3.2 Some Methods of Multiple Attribute Decision
Making

6.1.4

Multiple Objective Decision Making

6.1.4.1
6.1.4.2

6.2

Multiple criteria Programming

Goal Programming

OUTRANKING METHODS
6.2.1 Chapter Objectives, Learning Objectives and Key
Words
6.2.2 ELECTRE Method
6.2.2.1 The Basic Method
6.2.2.2 The Extensions: ELECTRE II, III and IV
6.2.2.3 Decision Support System for the Basic
Method
6.2.3 PROMETHEE Method
6.2.3.1 The Basics of PROMETHEE Method
6.2.3.2 An Example
6.2.3.3 The Extensions: PROMETHEE III and
IV
6.2.3.4 Decision Support System for
PROMETHEE
6.2.4

AHP Method
6.2.4.1
6.2.4.2
6.2.4.3

7.

What is the AHP?

An Example
The AHP Decision Support System

GROUP DECISION MAKING

7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.7

CHAPTER AND LEARNING OBJECTIVES AND KEY WORDS

INTRODUCTION
THE BASIC CONCEPT OF GROUP DECISION MAKING
TYPES OF GROUP DECISION MAKING
FACTORS OF THE GROUP PERFORMANCE
GROUP PERFORMANCE
THE GROUP DECISION MAKING METHODS
7.7.1
7.7.2

7.8

The Basics of Some Group Decision Making Methods

Voting in the Group Decision Making Process

THE MODELS OF THE GROUP DECISION MAKING

7.8.1
7.8.2
7.8.3
7.8.4
7.8.5
7.8.6
7.8.7
7.8.8
7.8.9

The Illustrative Example

The Sum-of-the-Outranking-Relations Principle
The Model of the Rule of the Majority
The Model of the Total Levels
The Model Additive Ranking
The Model of the Multiplicative Ranking
The Minimum Variance Model
The Model of the Compromise Ranking
The model Agenda Setting Rule

SPECIAL TOPICS IN DECISION THEORY:

APPENDIX 1:
APPENDIX 2:

THE CHOICE OF THE METHODS AND TECHNIQUES

DECISION MAKING WITHOUT SAMPLING
A 2.1
BREAKEVEN ANALYSIS
A 2.2
INCREMENTAL ANALYSIS
A 2.3
TWO-ACTION AND MULTI-ACTION
PROBLEMS WITH
PRIOR PROBABILITIES DENSITY FUNCTIONS
A 2.4
ASSESSMENT OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
A 2.4.1
A 2.4.2
A 2.4.3

APPENDIX 3:

Direct Assessment
Indirect Assessment
Five Point Assessment Procedure

DECISION ANALYSIS WITH SAMPLING

A 3.1
A 3.2

BINOMIAL SAMPLING
DECISION ANALYSIS WITH SAMPLING:
CONTINUOUS PRIOR PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
A 3.2.1 Beta Prior Probability Distribution and
Binomial
Sampling
A 3.2.2 Normal Prior Probability Distribution
and Normal
Sampling
APPENDIX 4:
APPENDIX 5:
APPENDIX 6:

RISK ANALYSIS
THE AXIOMATIC APPROACH TO UTILITY THEORY
GROUP DECISION MAKING (GDM)
A 6.1
SOME APPROACHES TO GROUP DECISION
MAKING
A 6.2
BASIC CONCEPTS OF GROUP DECISION
MAKING
A 6.3
GROUP, GROUP PERFORMANCE AND GROUP
DECISION

A 6.4
A 6.5
A 6.6

THE HISTORY OF GROUP DECISION MAKING

CHARACTERISTICS OF AUTOMATED GDM
MAJOR FACTORS OF GROUP PERFORMANCE
A 6.6.1 Social Impacts on Group Performance
A 6.6.2 Factors of Forming the Group
A 6.6.3 Special Characteristics which group
possess

A 6.7

GROUP PERFORMANCE
A 6.7.1 Major Factors of successful Group
Performance
A 6.7.2 Some Miss functionalities of Group
Performance

A 6.8
APPENDIX 7:

THE JOHNSON'S MODEL

SPECIAL TOPICS
A 7.1
METHODS OF INDIVIDUAL DM AS A BASIS OF
GDM
A 7.2
NEW METHOD FOR FINDING THE WEIGHTS
A 7.3
NEW TYPE OF GENERALIZED CRITERIA
A 7.4
INTELLIGENT APPROACH FOR CHOOSING
THE MCDM METHOD

REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY

GLOSSARY
AUTHOR'S INDEX
SUBJECT'S INDEX
LIST OF THE SYMBOLS
ABOUT THE AUTHORS



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,

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