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Essential Mathematics for Political and Social Research

Essential Mathematics for Political and Social Research

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http://zomi-intl.blogspot.com
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Published by: Paul on Sep 12, 2011
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01/13/2013

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Sometimes probability statements are reexpressed as odds. In some academic

fieldsthisisroutineandresearchersviewthesetobemoreintuitivethanstandard

probability statements. To simplify for the moment, consider a sample space

with only two outcomes: success and failure. These can be defined for any

social event we like: wars, marriages, group formations, crimes, and so on.

Defining the probability of success as p = p(S) and the probability of failure

as q = 1p = p(F), the odds of success are

odds(S) = p

q.

Notice that while the probability metric is confined to [0:1], odds are positive

but unbounded. Often times odds are given as integer comparisons: “The odds

ofsuccessare3to2”andnotated3 : 2,andifitisconvenient,makingthesecond

number1isparticularlyintuitive. Convertingprobabilitiestooddsdoesnotlose

any information and probability information can be recovered. For instance,

322

Probability Theory

with only two events, if the odds are 3:2, thenp(S) = 3

5 and p(F) = 2

5. More

generally, if odds(S) = α:β, then the two probabilities are

p(S) = α

α+β

p(F) = β

α+β.

These calculations are more involved but essentially the same for more than

two possible outcomes.

Example 7.15: Parental Involvement for Black Grandmothers. Pear-

son et al. (1990) researched the notion that black grandparents, typically

grandmothers, living in the same household are more active in parenting

their grandchildren than their white counterparts. The authors were con-

cernedwith testing differencesin extendedfamily systems and the roles that

members play in child rearing. They obtained data on 130 black families

where the grandmother lived in the house and with reported levels of direct

parenting for the grandchildren.

Three dichotomous (yes/no) effects were of direct interest here. Sup-

portive behavior was defined as reading bedtime stories, playing games,

or doing a pleasant outing with the child. This was the main variable of

interest to the researchers. The first supporting variable was punishment

behavior, which was whether or not the grandmother punished the child on

misbehavior. The second supporting variable was controlling behavior,

which meant that the grandmother established the rules of behavior for the

child.

Pearson et al. looked at a wide range of explanations for differing levels

of grandmother involvement, but the two most interesting findings related

to these variables. Grandmothers who took the punishment behavior role

versus not taking on this role had an odds ratio of 2.99:1 for exhibiting

supportive behavior. Furthermore, grandmothers who took the controlling

behavior role versus not doing so had an odds ratio of 5.38:1 for exhibit-

ing supportive behavior. Therefore authoritarian behavior strongly predicts

positive parenting interactions.

7.9 New Terminology

323

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