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Bio Fuels1

Bio Fuels1

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Published by Sekhar Challa

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Published by: Sekhar Challa on Sep 21, 2011
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07/28/2015

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Our database contained heavy-duty highway data collected on both engines and vehicles.
The amount of engine data far surpassed the amount of vehicle data, as shown in Table III.B-1.
Given that engines and vehicles have the potential for exhibiting different emission effects, we
opted to base our primary biodiesel correlations on engine data only. However, we wanted to
compare the vehicle data to predictions made by our engine-based correlations to determine if the
impact of biodiesel on emissions can be considered to be the same for vehicles and engines.

To make this comparison, we first converted all vehicle emissions data from g/mile to %
change in emissions. This process involved identifying the base fuel to which biodiesel had been
added for each vehicle/test cycle combination, and averaging any repeat measurements made on
this base fuel. The % change values for each biodiesel test were then calculated with respect to
the averaged emissions from the repeat base fuel measurements.

We used our composite correlations to estimate the % change in emissions of each
pollutant for the specific biodiesel concentration associated with each vehicle test. We then
compared the predicted and observed % change emission values in several different ways to
determine if our engine-based correlations could be said to represent vehicle effects of biodiesel.
These comparisons included graphical comparisons, paired t-tests of predicted versus observed
% change values, and comparisons of residuals for the engine and vehicle data. Details of how
these comparisons were done are summarized in Section V.

Figures IV.C-1 through IV.C-4 compare the predicted and observed values for each of the

four pollutants.

66

Figure IV.C-1

Figure IV.C-2

Predicted versus observed NOx for vehicles

Predicted versus observed PM for vehicles

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Predicted %change

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Observed % change

0%

100%

200%

300%

Predicted %change

0%

100%

200%

300%

Observed % change

Figure IV.C-3

Figure IV.C-4

Predicted versus observed CO for vehicles

Predicted versus observed HC for vehicles

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10%

0%

10%

20%

Predicted %change

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Observed % change

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Predicted %change

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Observed % change

These figures suggest that the emission effects measured for heavy-duty vehicles exhibit a bias in
comparison to the estimates predicted using our composite correlations. A t-test of predicted
versus observed values confirms that the bias is statistically significant for all four pollutants. In
addition, this bias is not consistent. For PM and HC, the vehicle data appears to produce
emission benefits that are smaller than those predicted by the composite correlations. For NOx
the vehicle data appears on average to produce emission reductions whereas the composite
correlations predict emission increases. For CO, the vehicle data appears to produce larger
emission benefits than the composite correlation predictions. Based on this comparison, we do
not believe that the vehicle data can be used to represent the emission effects of biodiesel on
heavy-duty diesel engines.

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