The Impacts of Global Climate Change

on the UK Overseas Territories

Technical Report and Stakeholder Survey

A Report by

C Sear, M Hulme,
N Adger and K Brown

March 2001

Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Medway Campus, Chatham Maritime, Kent ME4 4TB
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, University Plain, Norwich NR4 7TJ
 The Impacts of Global Climate Change on the UK Overseas Territories

C Sear** , M Hulme# , N Adger# , and K Brown#

A Report Commissioned by the DFID Overseas Territories Unit

Full Technical Report - Contents

0 Executive Summary 3

1 Introduction and Terms of Reference 4

2 Climate Futures 5
Changing Our Climate 5
Global Climate 5
Regional Climates 5
Temperature
Rainfall
Climate Variability and Extremes 7
El Nino and related complicating factors
Tropical storms
Drought
Summary
Changes in Sea Level 7
Uncertainties 8
Conclusion 8

3 Climate Change Impacts 11

Economic and Physical Vulnerability 11
Environmental Services at Risk 13
i. Coral Reefs and Reef Systems 13
Climate change impacts on coral reefs
Sea surface temperature increases
Sea level rise
Increased atmospheric concentration of CO2
Implications for coral reef management
Implications for associated coastal habitats: mangrove forests and seagrass beds
ii. Water Resources 17
iii. Storms and Coastal Protection 17
Hurricane Lenny 17

4 Livelihoods on Small Islands and UK Overseas Territories 19

i. Fisheries 19
ii. Tourism 20
iii. Health 20
iv. Infrastructure 21
v. Insurance 21
vi. Migration and Remittances 22
Livelihoods, Vulnerability and Coping Strategies 22
Summary 22
Policy Intervention and Community Ownership 23
Integrated Coastal Zone Management 24
Regional Initiatives and Toolbox Methods 24
Summary 25

5 Survey Responses 26

1
6 Knowledge Gaps, Development Implications and Opportunities 28
Background 28
Knowledge Gaps 28
Implications for Development Projects 30
Environmental management projects
Engineering and infrastructure projects
Waste management schemes
Coastal and marine resources management schemes
Land resources management projects
Disaster management projects
Recommendations 32
Conclusion 33

7 References Cited 34

8 Acronym List 40

Annexes 41

I Stakeholder Questionnaire 42

II Stakeholders Approached and Responses Received 43

III Summary of Stakeholder Response Key Points, by Question Area, by Island 46

**
Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich,
Medway Campus, Chatham Maritime, Kent ME4 4TB

# Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,

University of East Anglia, University Plain, Norwich NR4 7TJ

2
0. Executive Summary

0.1 This analysis of the impacts of future climate change on the UK Overseas Territories (UK OTs) finds that the
least likely future for any of the UK OTs is that they will experience the same weather characteristics as in the past 50
years. We conclude that regional warming in the Caribbean could be as much as 60 C by 2100 (slightly less in the South
Atlantic and Pitcairn). It could, however, be as little as 10 C or less. A greater than 30 C rise by 2100 is most likely in all
three regions but we advise planning for the worst case scenario of a 5 or 6 0 C temperature rise.

0.2 The effects of climate change on key island coastal natural resources (beaches) and marine ecosystems (coral
reefs, mangrove forests and sea grasses) will have the most important impacts on island livelihoods. These effects will
come through increasingly severe tropical storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean (with wind speed increases of up to 20%
greater than today) and likely increases in the severity and frequency of low rainfall events and droughts in all areas. There
is a significant gap in knowledge about the relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global warming
- limiting confidence in projections for storms, rainfall and ocean temperature. We find that no useful guide exists to future
regional climate in the South Atlantic. Global sea level rise is now projected to be as much as 0.9m by 2100 (0.5 m is the
central estimate). This will have little medium term direct impact on UK OTs as people adapt to such slow change. But,
raised sea levels will exacerbate the effects of more severe storms and will directly affect coastal infrastructure and tourism.
Sea level rise, wind and ocean state changes might risk access to South Atlantic islands and Pitcairn.

0.3 Detailed analysis of the likely impacts of climate change on small island societies reveals that impacts will occur
through their fragile natural resource base and the environmental services it provides. These services sustain the
livelihoods of these economically vulnerable states through a very small number of critical choke points: primarily
Tourism, Fisheries, Water Supply and Migration, with lesser impacts on Infrastructure, Health and Agriculture. Climate
change should be of immediate concern to UK OT decision-makers. It affects the environmental services on which the
UK OT societies depend most. Analysis and the responses of island stakeholders to the survey we undertook confirm
that acute disasters are the highest priority to governments and public in the Wider Caribbean and that climate change is
of little current concern. Key knowledge gaps are currently in these local populations and the islands’ governments
themselves. Decision-makers are un-informed about likely climate changes and impacts. Also, global and regional
initiatives are not yet adding value at island or local scales. We find that UK OT governments and the international
donor community are not able to factor climate changes into their planning and cannot begin to develop appropriate and
sustainable adaptation strategies.

0.4 We find that efforts to improve regional co-operation in disaster preparedness and management are needed but
these should be targeted at empowerment of local communities and island governments that most urgently need support.
Specifically we find that:
• Pitcairn requires basic information about possible climate changes in its region over coming decades
• St Helena needs basic information about likely regional climate changes and how these may impact its water supply
• Tristan da Cunha and St Helena need information about climate change impacts on fish stocks and fisheries
• Turks and Caicos and Anguilla (and many other islands) need to know more about climate-tourism relationships
• All the Caribbean UK OTs need better information about projected future storm climates and extremes because of
the importance of storms to island disaster management and development
• All the selected UK OTs and other small island states need to know more about the relationship between climate
change, livelihoods and migration.

0.5 Global warming is already happening and risks to island communities will increase. We find that there are clear
opportunities available to the international donor community. Our priority recommendations are to invest in:
• Filling gaps in knowledge of regional climate futures, especially in the South Atlantic and South Pacific, through co-
ordinated scientific effort and informed by the needs of UK OT societies
• Research into the interaction between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global warming
• Reviewing regional and global initiatives to determine how to improve their influence and contribution, including at
national level, in addressing the impacts and issues identified in this report
• Reviewing weather-related design criteria for planned developments in the UK OTs and other islands
• Supporting public awareness and information campaigns through local media and NGOs
• Providing training at government and community levels; giving robust briefing and advice on climate trends and
uncertainties at senior level, to inform the development of appropriate adaptation strategies
• Kick-starting development of action plans to cope with and adapt to climate changes through targeted strengthening
of ministries responsible for environment and planning on an island by island basis
• Providing community-focused interventions with the support of strengthened local NGOs, to facilitate local planning
adaptation to climate change and bearing in mind traditional strategies for coping with weather-related disasters
• Understanding better the relationship between key coastal and marine environments and the livelihoods they serve,
using a systems-orientated approach to integrated coastal zone management
• Supporting pilot projects to plan for likely future climate changes in one or more UK OT.

3
1. Introduction

1.1 According to Grove (1994), our very first notions that human activities might cause climate change on regional
scales came from British and French island colonies. The administrations of Tobago, St Vincent, St Helena and
Mauritius were persuaded in the 18th and early 19th centuries that deforestation was linked to declines in rainfall. This
lead to protection of island forest resources.

1.2 Two hundred years later most people now agree that humanity causes global climate change. Global climate
changes are happening and having a “widespread and discernible impact” according to the new Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change report (IPCC, 2001). The report goes on to state: “The most widespread direct risk to human
settlements is flooding and landslides, driven by rainfall, sea-level rise and tropical storms”. By only 2025, water
shortages may affect up to 5 billion people (ibid.). While the UK Overseas Territories (UK OTs) do not contribute a
significant proportion of these 5 billion people, they have especially fragile environments and un-diversified economies
and their sustainability is of concern to the UK and the international donor community.

1.3 The DFID Overseas Territories Unit (OTU) commissioned this rapid review and stakeholder survey, better to
understand the prospects for climate change during the next century and the likely impacts on selected UK OTs and other
small island states. The UK OTs selected were: Anguilla, Montserrat, the Turks and Caicos Islands, St Helena, Tristan
da Cunha and the Pitcairn Islands. We undertook a desk study to synthesise existing information and research on the
impacts of climate change on the societies and livelihoods of these islands, with particular reference to health,
infrastructure development and migration and other key sectors: for example, fisheries and tourism. A rapid stakeholder
survey was to be planned and executed, to include internal and external stakeholders, and most particularly as many local
UK OT stakeholders as could be identified and contacted within the short time frame of the study. Finally and most
importantly, the study was to highlight gaps in knowledge, prioritise key issues relating to climate change and the
environment for the selected OTs and their regions and outline their implications for the international donor community.

1.4 We take as our starting point for consideration of the prospects for and impacts of climate change on the
UK OTs, a Pressure-State-Impacts-Response framework (see, for example, Turner, 1998). We apply the PSIR concept
to the interaction between climate change (pressure), environmental state, impacts on environmental services and
through these to impacts on livelihood assets and capital and thus on sustainability of livelihoods; and on the response of
policy- and local decision-making. This enables us to provide a simplified, yet systematic view of a most complex web
of interactivity between climate change and society on these islands.

1.5 A simple view 1.6 In this report, we

- from environment to begin by considering climate
decision - is shown futures, globally. Then we
right. Livelihood home in on the regions and
sustainability is firmly islands under consideration
at the centre. (Section 2).

1.7 In Section 3 we
detail some of the complex
interactions between climate,
environmental and natural
resources and environmental
services on these and similar
islands.

1.8 We explain in some detail in Section 4 the critical livelihood implications of future climate change by
considering the sectors of society that we find are most critical to UK OT livelihoods and those that will likely require
significant mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to predicted climate change.

1.9 Section 5 summarises the results of the stakeholder survey undertaken as a major component of this work. The
questions we asked are included as Annex I. Annex II is a table listing all the stakeholders approached and highlighting
those who have responded by the time of writing. Annex III is a summary table of the key points of the responses
received.

1.10 Finally, in Section 6, we draw together the results of the desk study and stakeholder survey by considering
knowledge gaps from climate science to local information on adaptation strategies. We consider the implications of
future climate changes for donor interventions and we make ten specific recommendations.

4
2. Climate Futures1

Changing Our Climate

2.1. Evidence for global warming over the last 100 years is now overwhelming. Instrumental climate data accurately
indicate changing mean surface air temperatures since 1856. These data show a global warming at the surface of about
0.6°C, with the six warmest years all occurring in the last decade, since 1990. For most land areas the recent warming
has been greater at night than during the day, partly reflecting increased cloudiness over land. Warming over the oceans
has been somewhat less than this global average (though still significant) and tropical sea surface temperatures have risen
over the past fifty years. In 1998 sea temperatures in the tropics reached record highs during an El Niño. Evidence for
the most recent warming is seen not only in climate observations but also in physical and biological indicators of
environmental change. These include rising sea level, retreating glaciers and ice-shelves, thinner and less extensive polar
sea-ice and longer growing seasons in middle latitudes, not to mention recent severe impacts on tropical coral reef
systems (Reaser et al., 2000).

2.2 The science community and many policy makers are increasingly confident that many of the patterns associated
with this warming betray the fingerprint of human causation, amongst other climate controls such as fluctuations in the
sun’s output (IPCC, 2001). Based on the current scientific consensus, it is now probable that in the next one hundred
years we will fashion a climate system that will make the Earth warmer than at any time in human history. Much of this
man-made climate change is already unstoppable.

Global Climate

2.3 Predicting future climates and sea-levels requires:

1) adoption of one or more scenarios of future global greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere and
2) quantified assessment of how changes in our emissions will alter global and regional climates

2.4 Since the future is inherently unpredictable, most analysts start by adopting a range of emissions scenarios that
reflect a variety of assumptions about how the world economy, demography and energy technology may evolve. The
most recent set of scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] (IPCC, 2000, 2001) include
forty such quantified descriptions of the future. These descriptions range from a low emissions scenario with about 5
GtC2 emitted annually by 2100, to a high emissions scenario of around 29 GtC per annum. Current energy -related
emissions are about 6.8 GtC pa. When translated into atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentrations these equate to a
range from 540 to 970 ppmv 3 by 2001. Current concentration is about 370 ppmv. Since pre-industrial carbon dioxide
concentration was around 275 ppmv, reaching 570 ppmv is akin to an approximate doubling of ‘normal’ CO2 . Current
emissions scenarios indicate that humans will cause such a doubling to occur as soon as 2045 or as late as 2120.

2.5 The second stage in climate prediction takes these emissions futures and models the response of the climate
system to such additional human forcing, first considering near-surface air temperature. The newly approved Third
Assessment Report of the IPCC (IPCC 2001) presents a range of future increase of global air temperature by 2100 of 1.4
to 5.80 C from 1990 values (Figure 2.1). We have already seen 0.20 C warming during the 1980s and 1990s. The IPCC
assessment represents a future decadal warming rate of between approximately 0.15 and 0.60 C. Thus, by the year 2015,
the range of additional warming predicted is between 0.2 and 0.90 C. To assess the likelihood of possible regional future
climates, climate models (now essentially the same as those used to forecast tomorrow’s weather patterns but with
oceans, ice and vegetation included) are developed, tested and used (for example, Zweirs and Kharin, 1998). From these,
assessment can be made of long term changes in patterns of land and ocean temperatures, pressure, precipitation and
major weather features, such as major storm tracks - though not individual storms (for example, Emanuel, 1997) and high
pressure belts. Current and future sea level changes are mainly the result of global ocean temperature changes as warmer
water expands in volume, together with the less important but direct results of ice sheet and glacier melt.

Regional Climates

Temperature

2.6 The above changes are for globally-averaged surface air temperature. We know that changes in temperature are
likely to be higher in high latitudes than in lower latitudes and higher over continents than over oceans. What are the
expected temperature increases in the Caribbean, South Atlantic and South Pacific and on and around the selected
UK OTs? Because they are small islands and generally in low latitudes, rates of warming here are likely to be slower

1
The term ‘Climate Futures’ represents the set of scenarios generated by the climate science community which
characterise likely global, regional and local climates as they change through the 21st century.
2
GtC - Gigatonnes of Carbon
3
ppmv - parts per million by volume
5
than the global average. In Table 2.1 we provide temperature estimates based on regional scaling of recent global climate
model experiments using techniques described in Hulme et al., 2000. This is our basic temperature forecast for the three
regions and the selected UK OTs.

2.7 So, for example, the latest IPCC-endorsed range of global warming (1.4 to 5.80 C by 2100) equates to between
0.8 and 5.80 C for the eastern Caribbean over the current century and slightly less for the Atlantic and South Pacific
islands. Figure 2.2 shows clearly a strong warming trend in St Helena air temperature, even after a first pass to factor out
effects caused by changes in instrumentation and site. This trend is stronger than we expected, based on the
aforementioned recent modelling experiments and warrants further investigation. Table 2.1 is also valid for sea surface
temperature around the coasts of small islands over the next century. However, changes in ocean currents and up-welling
regimes may lead to variations we cannot yet predict and might directly impact sensitive marine ecosystems.

UK Overseas Territory Regional Annual Temperature Warming Range by 2100 (0 C)

Scaling Factor (0 C)

Eastern Caribbean* 0.8 ± 0.2 0.8 to 5.8

St Helena 0.7 ± 0.2 0.7 to 5.2
Tristan da Cunha 0.7 ± 0.2 0.7 to 5.2
Pitcairn Island 0.6 ± 0.2 0.6 to 4.6
* Eastern Caribbean includes Montserrat, Turks and Caicos Islands and Anguilla

Table 2.1: Scaling factors for the selected UK OTs to be applied to projections of global temperature change for annual
temperature. Global warming range is from 1.4 to 5.80 C. (Based on the methods described in Hulme et al., 2000).

Rainfall

2.8 New et al., 2001 analyse recent global and regional changes in precipitation. They find that the most recent
warming has been accompanied by somewhat less rainfall in St Helena and the southern and eastern Caribbean, wetter
conditions in the northern Caribbean and Bahamian islands, a slight fall around Pitcairn Island and no change around
Tristan da Cunha. Figure 2.3 shows some indication of rainfall variability on Pitcairn Island, confirming a recent slight
reduction - but the record is short. A similar analysis of the St Helena record (not shown) indicates no definitive recent
trends. New et al. also find that for all the selected UK OTs, the dominant control of seasonal rainfall is El Niño
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variation. A key conclusion, therefore, is that ENSO variability now, and in future as it
interacts with global warming in the future, is of prime concern to the UK OT environments and their societies.

2.9 As the world continues to warm, it also becomes wetter overall with global precipitation increasing by between
1 and 3% for each degree of global warming (Hulme et al., 1998). Thus, temperature projections indicate a global
average rainfall increase of between 1.4 and 17.4%. This is clearly a wide range, from essentially no change to a
significant increase. Regional differences in the changes in precipitation are much greater than for temperature and also
vary by season. So, predicting just what regional changes are likely using current climate models is an uncertain science.
Nevertheless, we can provide estimates following Hulme et al., 2000 (see Table 2.2). No clear signal emerges for any of
the relevant UK OTs with regard to annual precipitation totals, but there is some indication for changes in seasonal
distribution. For example, in the eastern Caribbean, projected increases in December - February rainfall are offset by
decreases in June - August rainfall. These changes will impact on local agricultural practices and possibly on tourism.

2.10 Under the highest of the global temperature projections (5.80 C by 2100), these seasonal changes in rainfall may
amount to as much as ± 40%. The large uncertainty in these regional and seasonal rainfall changes is shown by the
ranges in Table 2.2. Nevertheless, such changes are out of the range of recent experience and thus the possibility of their
occurrence should be of significant concern to the UK OTs. We comment on rainfall intensities in the section below.

UK Overseas Estimated % Change in Rainfall Estimated % Change in Rainfall

Territory per 1 0 C of Global Warming by 2100
ANNUAL DJF# JJA ANNUAL DJF JJA

Eastern Caribbean* -1 ± 3 +3 ± 6 -4 ± 6 -23 to +12 -17 to +52 -58 to +12

St Helena -1 ± 3 -2 ± 6 -4 ± 6 -23 to +12 -46 to +23 -58 to +12
Tristan da Cunha 0±3 -2 ± 6 -1 ± 6 -17 to +17 -46 to +23 -41 to +29
Pitcairn Island 0±3 +1 ± 6 +1 ± 6 -17 to +17 -29 to +41 -29 to +41
* Eastern Caribbean includes Montserrat, the Turks and Caicos Islands and Anguilla; # DJF=Dec+Jan+Feb/3; # JJA=Jun+Jul+Aug/3

Table 2.2: Scaling factors for the UK OTs to be applied to projections of global precipitation change for annual and
seasonal rainfall. (Based on the methods described in Hulme et al., 2000).

6
 Climate Variability and Extremes

El Niño and related complicating factors

2.11 As noted above, in the regions in question El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the major determinant of
year-to-year climate variations and it is now thought that changes in global temperature will alter the characteristics of
ENSO behaviour and its effects on, for example, storminess (Elsner et al., 1999). Exactly what these changes will be is
not yet well determined, although a number of studies suggest at least a small increase in the amplitude of El Niño events
over the next 100 years (IPCC, 2001). Notwithstanding this uncertainty, global warming is likely to lead to greater
extremes of drought and heavy rainfall and flooding that occur with El Niño and La Niña events in many regions (IPCC,
2001). For example, ENSO-related droughts in the eastern Caribbean might become more intense as might the frequency
of tropical storms during La Niña episodes. It is also likely that with background warming of the tropical oceans, the
frequency of given high sea surface temperature thresholds being exceeded during El Niño events will increase. This
may well have implications for coral bleaching and other direct environmental impacts as we describe in Section 3.

Tropical storms

2.12 Changes in tropical cyclone behaviour as the world warms are now considered probable, though again the
details of these changes are not yet well known (Lighthill et al., 1994). Research in the 1980s and early 1990s suggested
that tropical storms would be more frequent in a warmer Caribbean (for example, see Gable and Aubrey, 1990;
Gable et al., 1990; and Gray, 1993). This may still be the public perception in the Caribbean and still accepted by many
decision-makers in the region. But in the late 1990s, more careful modelling has shown that the numbers of storms may
not, after all, increase, nor their regional or local distributions change. However, this research indicates that increases in
peak wind and peak precipitation intensities of up to between 10 and 20% may well be associated with tropical cyclones
in a warmer world (Bergtsson, 1996; Henderson-Sellers et al., 1998; Knutson et al., 1998; Landsea et al., 1999 and
IPCC, 2001). Of the selected UK OTs, those in the Caribbean are well known to be especially vulnerable to damage
from tropical storms and hurricanes and increases in rainfall and wind speed associated with these storms must be of
concern.

Drought

2.13 For many societies lack of rainfall is a major (if not the critical) constraint on livelihood sustainability. In some
of the target UK OTs, high-profile and more acute climate-related disasters, such as tropical storms, are clearly important
but future drought may also impact on sustainability and development. This is especially the case where water resources
are limited, such as in St Helena and Anguilla. Our analysis (Table 2.2) forecasts (with large uncertainty) that increased
seasonality of rainfall would result in a higher frequency of drought through the next decades, especially but not
exclusively, in the Eastern Caribbean. So, improved forecasts of regional climates are needed to provide more reliable
estimates of future rainfall and likelihood of drought.

Summary

In summary, the most likely scenario for climate extremes affecting the selected UK OTs, is:
• the same long term tropical storm frequency as now, modulated by ENSO variations
• storms will be more intense, with more rain, up to 20% stronger winds and higher storm surges
• as the world warms, regional rainfall climates will change, with an increased risk of droughts, but
• current forecast uncertainty is large, so
• while we can be confident of trends, we cannot yet be sure of magnitudes of change.

Changes in Sea Level

2.14 Global average sea level has been rising at the rate of about 1.5 cm / decade during the twentieth century. The
majority of this increase is directly related to rising temperatures - as ocean water warms its volume increases. The rest
is due to indirect effects - melting glaciers and ice. The IPCC projections for future sea-level, consistent with those for
global temperature cited above, suggest rises in average sea-level during the coming century of between 0.9 and 8.8 cm /
decade (IPCC, 2001). This represents an acceleration in the rate of sea level rise and although there are likely to be some
regional differences in the rate of increase these differences are relatively small and not easily quantified. Under a worst
case scenario therefore, small islands will need to adapt to a rise in sea level over the next 100 years of up to nearly one
metre (with rises of 1 cm / year on average).

2.15 Changes in ice sheet mass balance and ocean thermal expansion will take several centuries to adjust to the
current increase in global temperature. This means that even if efforts to mitigate climate change are successful and
global temperature stabilises later this century, future generations will see continued increases in sea level for at least
another 1,000 years. Depending on the precise behaviour of the ice sheets and the eventual temperature at which global

7
climate stabilises, sea-level rise over the next millennium could range from 3 m to over 10 m (IPCC, 2001). Considering
how many human beings and what proportion of the flora and fauna of the Earth live close to or rely on coastal
environments, it hardly needs stating that this ‘very long term scenario’ might have dire consequences for human kind
and the Earth as we now know it.

Uncertainties

2.16 The future is, of course, uncertain and climate futures are no exception. There are two generic sources of
uncertainty in climate prediction:
• uncertainty concerning future world development, affecting how greenhouse gas emissions will change
• uncertainty associated with modelling of the Earth’s climate system and the accuracy of climate models.

2.17 The first source of uncertainty will not be resolved by improvements in ‘climate science’. The second source of
uncertainty is, in principle, partly resolvable given adequate investment in the science base and continued expansion of
computing power (Hulme and Carter, 1999). However, it is generally accepted that complexity and chaotic nature of the
climate system will always preclude forecasting perfection.

2.18 The range of global warming: 1.4 to 5.8degC by 2100; is a function of both sources of uncertainty:
• between 25 and 40% of the range is due to unknown future emissions
• 60 to 75% is due to imperfect modelling.

2.19 So, as much more than half the uncertainty is tractable, we expect intensive climate system-oriented research to
make significant inroads into the overall prediction uncertainty over the next decades.

2.20 For sea-level rise: between a 9cm and a 88cm rise by 2100; nearly all the range arises from our imperfect
understanding and modelling of ice-sheet dynamics and ocean circulation. In other words, future rises in sea-level are
less sensitive to different emissions growth curves than are rises in global temperature and thus the current projection
range is reliable. But, again, near-future intensive research may significantly reduce the current large uncertainty.

2.21 Given the current state of our understanding, it is useful to summarise relative levels of confidence we have in
the components of future global change predictions. These are summarised in Table 2.3.

Prediction Statement Confidence Level

Atmospheric CO2 concentration increase Very High

Global sea-level rise Very High
Global temperature increase High
Regional temperature increase Moderate
Increase in hurricane intensity Moderate / Low
Increased amplitude of ENSO events Moderate / Low
Regional precipitation change Low

Table 2.3: Confidence levels for changes associated with global warming. (Adapted from IPCC, 2001).

2.22 Notwithstanding these different levels of confidence, it is safe to conclude that:

The least likely future for any of the UK OTs is to experience the same weather characteristics as in the past 50 years

2.23 Medium to long-term strategic planning in sectors that are clearly climate sensitive is well advised to adopt one
or more scenarios of climate change rather than use design criteria that rely upon historical weather statistics.
Assimilating uncertainty about future climates into such strategic planning is a significant challenge to modern society.

Conclusion

2.24 Global climate has changed significantly in the last 150 years. Currently, temperature increase is accelerating
and will have direct and indirect, regional and local impacts. Some of the most severe impacts will be on small island
states (IPCC, 2001), including the selected UK OTs. On balance, we can expect higher temperatures in coming decades
(up to 60 C higher by 2100) and increasingly severe storms (especially in the Wider Caribbean). It is likely that rainfall
patterns will change but exactly how, we do not yet know (especially in the Wider Caribbean and South Atlantic). The
latest projections suggest that rainfall is more likely to be higher than lower in the Eastern Caribbean in winter
(December to February) and more likely to be lower than higher in the summer (June-August) but we indicate that our
confidence in this is low. In the South Atlantic lower rainfall might occur in both seasons (again, a low confidence

8
forecast) but annual totals could be higher, lower or unchanged. As Maunder et al., (1995) put it: “St Helena has a
remarkably stable sub-tropical climate….” So stable in fact that, even though older islanders were “convinced” that
climate changes had occurred in their lifetimes, a scientific analysis could find no evidence of any significant change.
Our brief analysis indicates a possible vindication of the ‘local view’ - we find a first indication of a strong 20 C warming
over 60 years. Changes in the seasonal distribution of rainfall would affect water availability on St Helena especially and
elsewhere amongst the selected UK OTs with possible increased frequency and /or severity of droughts. This, together
with increases in the severity of tropical storms, would have significant implications for several sectors from agriculture
and construction to infrastructure and tourism.

2.25 More research is needed to consolidate the prediction of increasingly severe tropical storms and the linkage
between global warming and ENSO variations. We contend that overall warming and slow sea level rises may not pose a
great threat to small islands as populations gradually assimilate change, as does Hay (2000). Rather, local extreme
weather events will dominate slow changes. As Hay puts it: “localised extreme events whose relationship with climate
change is not yet well understood “are likely to be of far greater significance”.

Figure 2.1: A synthesis of current projections of global surface air temperatures in the 21st Century from the IPCC,
including current best estimates and error bars for global temperature during the past millennium (IPCC, 2001). Note
that even the most conservative estimate of 21st Century temperature change far exceeds any variations during the past
1000 years.

9
 2

1.5

0.5
°C

-0.5

-1

-1.5

-2
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Figure 2.2: Annual mean temperature anomaly (°C) for St Helena, 1893 to 1999; relative to the 1951 to 1980 reference
period and based on the record of station 619010 and from the Climate Research Unit data archive. (P. D. Jones,
pers. comm., 2001). Note the strong warming trend of around 20 C in the record since 1930 (10 since 1970). Further note
that this record has been adjusted for changes to the specific location of the St Helena climate station, 619010.

80

60

40

20
%

-20

-40

-60

-80
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Figure 2.3: Annual total precipitation anomaly (%) for Pitcairn, 1940 to 1999; relative to a 1954 to 1980 reference
period and based on the record of station 919600 and from the Climate Research Unit data archive. (P. D. Jones,
pers. comm., 2001). Note the three years of poor rains from 1976 to 1978 and again from 1996 to 1998.

10
3 Climate Change Impacts

Economic and Physical Vulnerability

3.1 The livelihoods and development opportunities in the small island UK OTs critically depend on their natural
resource base. The terrestrial, marine and coastal natural resource systems provide environmental or ecological services
that are necessary for the maintenance of sustainable livelihoods in the territories. Disturbances to these natural resource
systems as a result of climate change have the potential to undermine the long-term sustainability of livelihoods on the
islands. The process of adaptation to impacts is mediated by the institutional context of the natural resource management
– careful planning will allow greater degrees of flexibility and resilience.

3.2 It has long been recognised that small island states, particularly those that are developing nations, have a unique
set of circumstances making them vulnerable to external shocks from political, economic or environmental sources, and
making sustainable development difficult to achieve (Streeten, 1993). The vulnerability of small island states has been
formalised in recent years. Sets of indicators have been developed to assess and rank small and isolated countries in
terms of their vulnerability to economic shocks (see, for example, Briguglio, 1995, for UNCTAD; Crowards, 1999, for
the Caribbean Development Bank; and Easter, 1999, for the Commonwealth Secretariat). Measures of economic
vulnerability reveal the sensitivity of national economic development to external shocks (for example, global economic
downturn, social upheaval or hazards such as hurricanes, floods and earthquakes). According to Easter (1999), three
factors are important in determining an island nation’s vulnerability:
• economic exposure (trade-dependence and lack of economic diversification)
• degree of remoteness and insularity
• susceptibility to environmental events and hazards.

3.3 By these measures, small island states make up 90% of the most vulnerable developing countries (Easter, 1999).

3.4 Table 3.1 (adapted from Crowards, 1999) and Table 3.2 (DFID, 1999) confirm the vulnerability of the selected
UK OTs (British Virgin Islands [BVI] is included for comparison). Even without quantitative data, it is clear that St
Helena, Tristan da Cunha and Pitcairn are highly economically vulnerable just because of remoteness and size, not to
mention having non-diversified economies. BVI, Anguilla and Montserrat are also high in the ranked order of vulnerable
states.

Openness / Diversity Dependence Remoteness

UK OT Reliance on one Reliance on Exports as Development Foreign Insurance costs5
export 1 three exports2 % of GDP assistance3 invest-
ment4

Anguilla 89% 95% 82% 20% 55% 12%

Montserrat 69% 68% 44% 41% 24% 12%
Turks and no data no data no data 54% no data 12%
Caicos
Pitcairn /
St Helena / no data no data no data no data no data no data
Tristan da
Cunha
B.V.I. (for 56% 82% 91% 9% 48% 9%
comparison)

Table 3.1: Indicators of economic dependence and remoteness for the selected UK Overseas Territories. Adapted from
Crowards (1999).

Notes:
1. Percentage contribution of top export to total exports
2. Percentage contribution of top three exports to total exports
3. Overseas Development Assistance as a percentage of Gross Fixed Capital Formation
4. Foreign Direct Investment as a percentage of Gross Fixed Capital Formation
5. Percentage freight and insurance costs on imported goods.

11
 UK OT Population Major Land Visitors Unemploy- Port – Air- Fish
(1998) Export area (1997)** ment Rate Usable port Caught
km2 days (y/n)

Anguilla 11,915 fishing 90 7% 365 Y 300 to 500

tonnes
Montserrat 4,500 villa- 102 6% not all- heli-
tourism weather port
Pitcairn Islands 54 postage 54 subsistence not all- N
stamps economy weather
St Helena 5,000 fishing 122 8,698 15% not all- N
licences, weather
overseas
remittance
Tristan da Cunha 297 crayfish, 98 negligible 60 to 70 N
overseas
remittance
Turks and Caicos 20,000 tourism, 500 100,000 10% no Y $3 million
offshore cruise sales of
finance facility lobster,
conch and
other
British Virgin 19,107 tourism, 153 365,668 3.3% 365## Y
Islands (for financial
comparison) services

Table 3.2: Selected socio-economic indicators for the selected UK Overseas Territories (adapted from DFID, 1999).
** Overnight + cruise ship visitors
## Two cruise ship passenger terminals were built in 1998.

3.5 The selected UK OTs rely heavily on external markets for both finance and trade:
• having un-diversified economies
• relying on exporting few traded goods (for example, bananas, sugar, lobsters, stamps)
• relying increasingly on tourism earnings and overseas aid.

3.6 They are ‘economically remote’ as measured by high transport costs of traded goods. Several are also especially
prone to acute natural disasters (for example, volcanic eruptions and tropical storms) which can cause infrastructural and
economic disruption and loss of exports as well as risk to life and of forced migration. A summary of major issues facing
each island are shown in Table 3.3.

3.7 Thus, the selected UK OTs are already vulnerable. Future climate change may exacerbate vulnerability and
interact with weather extremes to increase the significance of weather-related events. Previous IPCC reports (for
example, Bijlsma et al., 1996) and literature reviewed for this study have identified common threats to small islands from
climate change. These are threats to terrestrial and marine environments on which the societies and economies are
directly or indirectly, uniquely dependent (for example, see Alm et al., 1993; Snedaker, 1993; Vincente et al., 1993;
Cronk, 1997; Ellison et al., 1997; Bergstrom et al., 1999; Rönnbäck, 1999). Threats include increased intensity of
tropical cyclones, increased seasonal rainfall variability, altitudinal shifts in vegetation zones (affecting mountainous
islands such as St Helena, Tristan da Cunha and Montserrat and threatening conservation of biodiversity), impacts of
temperature and rainfall changes on coastal environments (Nicholls et al., 1999; Oldfield and Sheppard, 1997), soil
fertility and on disease vectors. There are also wide-ranging and long term impacts of sea level rise on replacement and
maintenance of coastal infrastructure (Hendry, 1993) and on agriculture, through salination (Singh, 1997). These impacts
are potentially important for the selected UK OTs.

3.8 In the inshore marine environment, coral reefs, sea grass and mangroves are threatened. Because these systems
provide buffers to storm damage, direct and indirect impacts on beaches and beach-dependent tourism are expected as
climates changes, as well as directly on fish stocks and inshore artisanal fisheries. Again, these impacts are especially
relevant to the selected UK OTs.

3.9 These threats were assessed by the IPCC to be exacerbated by the economic vulnerability parameters
(Pearce et al., 1996), especially relevant to the UK OTs.

12
 UK OT Significant Issues

Anguilla low-lying coralline island, limited natural resource base, limited water resources
small population
over-fishing of inshore stocks
growing dependence on tourism (mostly from the US) and financial services
Montserrat (pre-eruptions) increasing tourism dependence
small population, limited land (50% devastated by eruptions)
(post-eruption) depend on UK aid for re-building
(post-eruptions) migration
Pitcairn Islands rain-limited subsistence agriculture, tiny population (non-viable)
no airstrip – only one vulnerable access point (small bay with jetty)
dependent on declining cruise ship tourism for sales of handicrafts and stamps
no airport, very isolated, total dependence on UK aid
St Helena limited water resources, environmental degradation
small population, un-diversified economy
dependent on revenues from fishing licences
no airport, non-continuous sea access, dependent on UK aid, strategic location
Tristan da potential natural hazard (active volcano – last eruption: 1961)
Cunha very small population, small un-diversified economy
no airport, non-continuous sea access
reliant on overseas remittances, dependent on UK aid, strategic location
Turks and very low lying atoll, potential threat from sea level rise
Caicos Islands small population
dependent on tourism and financial services
problems with Haitian refugees
British Virgin very small domestic markets
Islands (for high costs associated with inter-island transport
comparison) agriculture and manufacturing account for less than 5% of GDP
growing dependence on tourism and offshore financial services

Table 3.3: Summary of significant issues for selected UK Overseas Territories.

3.10 In summary, the selected UK OTs, like other small island states, are dominated by coastal and marine systems
and their economies and the livelihoods of their residents are dependent on a few vital resources and environmental
services, serving local populations and large numbers of tourists. A critical constraint on economic development and
human habitation on many small islands is water supply. This is potentially a limiting factor, particularly on Pitcairn,
St Helena and Anguilla. Below, we examine in more detail future climate change on the UK OTs with reference to these
important natural resource systems, coastal resources and environments and water resources.

Environmental Services At Risk

3.11 Of all the natural resource systems in the coastal zone that provide environmental or ecological services to the
livelihoods of habitants of several selected UK OTs and many other tropical and sub-tropical small islands, coral reefs
are considered the most important. Yet, they are arguably the most fragile natural systems and the most at risk from
climate changes. Recent coral bleaching on reefs world-wide (for example, Sheppard, 1999), on top of pollution and
other stresses, has made them currently the highest profile natural resource relevant to the tropical UK OTs.

i. Coral Reefs and Reef Systems

3.12 Coral reefs are important coastal ecosystem components, providing a range of valuable economic, social and
environmental services at the local, national and regional levels for small-island developing states. Hence they contribute
to the sustainability of livelihoods on several UK OTs. Healthy coral reef systems are also considered to be of global
importance because they are highly bio-diverse. There is now a wide literature concerning reef environments,
conservation and services and the importance of reefs for protecting coastal systems from storm damage and indeed,
much of the literature surveyed for this study are concerned with reef systems.

3.13 Coral reefs usually occur and survive within a narrow range of environments, limited by salinity, temperature
and by nutrient and sediment loads. Extremes for survival are within 3.3% and 3.6% (salinity) and between 18o and 36o C

13
(Hubbard, 1997). Coral reefs also require some degree of wave energy to pass nutrients and waste through the systems
and reef structures require light penetration to enable the symbiotic algae to photosynthesise to create the coral skeleton.

3.14 Diverse economic goods come from reef systems, including: seafood products, raw materials for medicines, fish
for the aquarium trade, coral blocks and mineral oil and gas. Reefs also provide beneficial indirect environmental
services as they support recreation, provide aesthetic value and support community livelihoods. They also provide a
range of environmental services, grouped under physical structure, biotic, bio-geochemical and informational services.

3.15 Physically, coral reefs provide shoreline protection, promote growth of mangroves and sea grasses and generate
coral sand. Biotic services include maintenance of habitats, maintenance of bio-diversity and a genetic library, regulation
of ecosystem processes and functions, and maintenance of biological resilience (see for example, Maul, 1993; Milliman,
1993; Moberg and Folke, 1999; Souter and Linden, 2000; Gaudian and Medley, 2000; Gell and Watson, 2000 and many
others).

3.16 As sea temperatures rise or turbidity and nutrient levels change, ambient conditions may move outside a coral’s
normal range. Other impacts of climate change on coral reefs and on the livelihoods they support depend on interactions
with other environmental stresses. Coral reef resilience can be reduced through human activities:
• on land via agricultural pollution (Rawlins et al., 1998), and poorly treated sewage (Hunter and Evans, 1995)
• in the coastal zone through inefficient fisheries management, including trap-fishing (Knaap, 1993) and over-fishing
(Russ and Alcala, 1989)
• indirectly through land development or clearance (Nowlis et al., 1997)
• through ‘natural’ hazards, such as tropical storms, sea temperature and sea level changes (Lugo, 2000)

3.17 Natural imp acts come from storm damage (for example, Lugo et al., 2000) and freshwater inputs from floods or
heavy rains. In the Caribbean, dust blown across the Atlantic from Africa can smother coral reefs or bring disease (Shinn
et al., 2000). Recently, overwhelming evidence has accrued that global climate change is seriously affecting coral reefs
throughout the tropics (Sheppard, 1999). The impact of climate change on sea surface temperature has already been felt
and the consequent mass coral reef mortality that resulted, through coral bleaching (when the symbiotic algae die, leaving
‘white’ and dead coral exoskeletons). This has been experienced around the world (Reaser et al., 2000). Overly warm
water has caused bleaching and major ‘kills’ on many reef systems, such as in the Maldives, Chagos Islands, British
Indian Ocean Territory (Sheppard, 1999), Caribbean (for example, Singh, 1997) and elsewhere. The current state of
coral reefs in selected island states is summarised in Table 3.4 below.

Climate change impacts on coral reefs

3.18 Global warming will have several major impacts on coral reefs (Done, 1999; Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999 and
Westmacott et al., 2000), through:
1. sea surface temperature increase
2. sea level rise
3. atmospheric CO2 increases, leading to reduced calcification rates.

3.19 These and other critical environmental changes may result from altered ocean circulation patterns. These may
affect any of the above as well as nutrient supply and sunlight - through changes in water turbidity. It is also likely that
increased intensity or frequency of severe weather events will alter the environment in which corals currently grow and
change the composition of coral reefs of the future. Below, we look a little more closely at the major impacts of rises in
temperature, sea level and CO2 .

Sea surface temperature increases

3.20 As noted above, many fragile reef systems have already been dramatically affected by global warming and / or
ENSO events over the last decade. If ambient ocean temperatures move outside a limited range coral bleaching occurs
and usually results in coral death. As tropical sea surface temperatures have risen over the past few decades, so coral
reefs around the world have suffered, especially in the warmest year (1998), which saw the most severe bleaching on
record (Wilkinson, 2000). Recent high sea surface temperatures leading to bleaching have been encouraged by extreme
ENSO events (Renwick, 1998). This re-emphasises the need for further information on probable interactions between
global warming and ENSO. Though large scale bleaching episodes are usually attributable to high sea surface
temperatures, small scale bleaching is more like to result from direct human impacts, such as increasing turbidity and
pollution. It is now widely accepted that coral reef systems are especially at risk when regional sea surface temperatures
reach or exceed those expected during the warmest months of the year (Goreau and Hayes, 1994; Reaser et al., 2000).

3.21 Even widespread bleaching is not always terminal and the reef ecosystems can recover quickly in certain
circumstances (Brown et al., 2000) and may prove more resilient than we currently expect. But, increasing evidence
suggests that corals weakened by stress may be more susceptible to bleaching events (Brown, 1997).

14
 UK OT Predominant Reef State of the Reefs Prevalence of Disease / Fish
Types Bleaching Diversity

Anguilla Fringing reefs 17km In good condition – recovered from No information Not known
long off south-east hurricane damage in the 1960s
coast and longer to
north side
Montserrat Small patch reefs High energy, erosion prone No information
close to shore. coastline (naturally). In 1995, 37 collected since 1995
Few patch reefs in hard coral spp., 20 to 45% live coral eruptions
deeper water cover
Turks and Fringing reefs (1- Popular locations: low cover on reef Some pollution High
Caicos 2km offshore). top (<20%) and high algae damage, some diver
Islands Shallow patch around abundance (30 to 60%). impact at well-used
all 40 cays Deeper (30 to 60% hard coral sites
cover) and lower macroalgae levels
British Mostly sand and rock Few mangrove and sea grass Hurricanes Jose and 67 fish spp.
Virgin outcrops covered by communities (naturally). Good Lenny (1999) caused
Islands (for corals. Reef vary overall condition. Localised severe damage to sites
comparison) from a few m2 , to one deterioration in areas of rapid land at 6 of the 60 small
that is 77 km2 development, high population, islands
yachting, snorkelling and diving
Chagos, Six major atolls with Highest coral and mollusc diversity 70 to 90% coral lost
BIOT (for smaller islands and in Indian Ocean. 50 to 70% live due to bleaching in
comparison reefs around the coral cover, 10 to 20% soft coral 1998 – good chance of
Great Chagos Bank cover. Largely undisturbed recovery because
largely undisturbed

Table 3.4: Current state of coral reefs and incidence of coral bleaching in selected UK Overseas Territories. Data comes
from several sources, especially Wilkinson (2000).

Sea level rise

3.22 Wilkinson (2000) estimates that if sea level rises by as much as 0.5m by 2100 (the mid-range IPCC scenario)
there could be severe adverse consequences as a result of the partial or total removal of coastal protection and buffering
that coral reefs provide. This logic assumes that as sea level rises, reef systems in many regions will not be able to keep
pace with the rise (Westmacott et al., 2000). Earlier work, summarised by Gable et al. (1990) indicated that coral
communities are at risk from sea level rises of as little as 0.3 to 0.5 cm / year (well under the projected maximum
expected rise over the coming decades: 1 cm / year). As noted above, reef survival and growth is constrained by
additional stress (such as increased pollution and temperature rise). The loss of protection to mangroves, sea grasses and
other coastal communities will cause further coastal erosion and loss of ecological habitats. Again, sea level rise is a
‘slow burning’ climate change threat and may be marginally survivable by reef systems. The risk to reef systems of sea
level rise and thus to coastlines and the livelihoods they support, is perhaps not fully explored in the recent literature.
The impacts of sea level rise on reef ecosystems requires further study, even though there appears to be no risk to UK OT
livelihoods in the short term.

Increased atmospheric concentrations of CO2

3.23 As atmospheric CO2 levels increase, the oceans may become more acidic and the ability of coral reefs to grow
through their normal calcification processes will be reduced (Souter and Linden, 2000). At present rates of CO2
increase, the rate of calcification of corals will decrease by between 14% and 30% by the year 2050 (Hoegh-Guldberg,
1999). This is a high-side estimate but as Buddemeier and Smith (1999 - p. 7) note: “the effect of carbonate saturation
state on calcification, and its linkage to atmospheric CO2 concentration, is now recognised as a potentially important
control on coral and reef community function”.

Implications for coral reef management

3.24 Wilkinson (2000) notes that the global coral bleaching events of 1998 have made many people re-assess coral
reef degradation and approaches to their management. Before 1998, it was generally accepted that good management of
human impacts (nutrient and sediment pollution and exploitation of reef resources) would be sufficient to increase the

15
resilience of the world’s coral reefs. Now it is widely accepted that global climate change is of enormous significance,
especially as it is out of the control of local resource managers or national policy makers in the affected small islands.

3.25 Table 3.4 summaries the state of the coral reefs of six UK OTs. They represent an important resource for these
states. For some reef systems Wilkinson (2000) considers the main threats to be from sewage and sedimentation,
associated with population and tourism growth and shoreline development, leading also to rapid growth in marine
activities (yachting, diving and snorkelling). The Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) are a significant exporter of lobster and
conch, which are critically dependent on the health of coral reef systems.

3.26 In summary, the consequences of climate changes on reef environments are significant. Human activities and
climate change interact significantly to impact on reef resilience (Nyström et al., 2000), feeding through to fishing and
tourism (see later). Prior to recent bleaching events there was little research into medium and long term effects of climate
change and little or no systematic synthesis of direct evidence. Fishing yields will decline as reef viability decreases and
as reef ecosystems become less productive there will be knock-on effects on other coastal environments and on birds and
marine animals, although the size of these impacts remains to be determined (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999). The impact of
these changes on protein sources for small islands that depend on reefs for their subsistence is likely to be severe, as is
the impact on bio-diverse coastal environments and coastal tourism that demands accessible, diverse and high quality
coral reef resources (Honey, 1999).

Implications for associated coastal habitats: mangrove forests and seagrass beds

3.27 Mangroves provide an important set of services and functions in terms of protecting island coastlines against
storms, as nutrient sinks, and in providing a habitat for wildlife and valuable products for humans (see, for example,
Gable et al., 1990; Hendry, 1993; and Rönnbäck, 1999). According to Gable et al., (1990) mangrove forests are, on
average, 19 times more productive than the open ocean and 2· 5 times more productive that agricultural land – an
important ecological resource that supports fisheries, tourism and provides coastal storm buffers to many islands,
including some selected UK OTs. But, in protecting Jamaica’s beaches from Hurricane Gilbert, 60% of the country’s
mangrove forest was lost to this one storm. Without mangroves to protect the coast, a storm following soon afterwards
could have been catastrophic. There is much historical evidence of similar impacts on other Caribbean islands, including
the selected UK OTs.

3.28 The resilience of mangroves to sea level rise varies according to the composition and status of the stand and
factors such as tidal range and sediment supply. In some instances (for example, where sediment supply is low) accretion
of mangroves may not be able to keep up with sea level rises, whereas in some protected coastal settings inundation of
low lying coastal land may promote the expansion of mangrove with rising sea level.

3.29 According to Hendry (1993), most mangrove forests should be able to keep pace with sea level rises of up to
1 cm / year (at about the limit of projections) but will be stressed or die back at greater rates. Overall, what evidence
there is, points to some loss of mangroves on small islands as a result of sea level rise and this will further exacerbate the
impacts of storms and has other deleterious effects on the ecology and stability of coastal systems and of beaches and
local fisheries. Vincente (1993) and Snedaker (1993) both considered that mangroves may be more at risk from
reductions in rainfall and freshwater inputs than from temperature or sea level rise and as we have seen, changes in
regional and local rainfall are currently extremely difficult to resolve. Clearly, further work is urgently needed to
determine probable impacts of climate change on mangrove resources.

3.30 Sea grasses are also associated with the shallow inter-tidal zone. They are often a major component of reef
ecosystems in the shallow, sheltered habitats that fringing reefs encourage and are thought to be important habitats for
marine fish. In some places they provide nursery areas for valuable fish species (Moberg and Folke, 1999; Gaudian and
Medley, 2000). Sea grasses are important to Anguilla, TCI and to a lesser degree, Montserrat. Sea grasses are thought to
be sensitive to changes in water temperature and to changes in dissolved CO2 (Short and Neckles, 1999). Furthermore,
suspended sediment in water may adversely affect sea grass productivity in comparison to other species, such as algae
(Moberg and Folke, 1999). The impacts of climate change on sea grasses has not been widely studied but needs to be.

Summary

3.31 In summary, many tropical small island states, including the Caribbean UK OTs have important reef systems
with associated mangrove forests and sea grass beds. Little integrated research has been undertaken on the impacts on
climate change on these vital natural resources. Much more work is needed and this should take a systems approach, as
these resources and the environmental services they provide, are intimately interconnected within the islands’ coastal
ecosystems. We suggest later that local integrated coastal zone management should address these concerns.

16
ii. Water Resources

3.32 The availability of water is often a limiting factor for the economic and social development of small islands,
many of which rely on a single source: groundwater, rainwater, surface reservoirs or even rivers. The situation is
especially critical in the low limestone islands of the Eastern Caribbean, where water supplies depend on seasonal
rainfall. Year to year and season to season rainfall variations in these and other tropical and sub-tropical small islands are
strongly associated with ENSO events (Dai and Wigley, 2000). In the Caribbean, especially towards the north, droughts
are generally more frequent in El Niño years with wetter conditions in La Niña years. Future changes to rainfall regimes,
as suggested in Section 2, would put Anguilla particularly at risk from seasonal drought, variable water supply and
diminishing water resources. Such environmental change would increase the vulnerability of Anguilla communities and
might constrain sustainable development over the next few decades, unless adaptive measures are taken now.

3.33 Unfortunately, modelled future patterns of rainfall are uncertain (see Section 2). The risk of increased frequency
or severity of seasonal droughts associated with ENSO phenomena and linkage between ENSO strength and global
warming are even more poorly understood. These areas of climate change science require further examination before our
forecast of water availability in the UK OTs can be firmer. Other threats to water resources are increased flood risks and
impeded drainage and elevated water tables, which may pose particular engineering problems. With sea level rise and
rising water tables, increased salination of coastal water supplies is likely and may exacerbate salinity problems already
experienced on some small islands.

3.34 Options available to small islands for reducing adverse effects of climate change on water supply appear limited.
The imperative is to develop better systems of water resource management and allocation, water harvesting and
conservation methods. Desalination may be a feasible option for some islands.

iii. Storms and Coastal Protection

3.35 Increases in the intensity of tropical storms are now thought likely in the coming decades (though not certainly
for the South Atlantic and eastern South Pacific). Vincente (1993) suggested that soil erosion, landslides and mudslides
will be perhaps the most significant risk to livelihoods and lives on Antillean Caribbean islands (like Anguilla) as rainfall
intensity increases; especially where increasingly dense populations extend habitats, infrastructure and agricultural lands
onto increasingly steep slopes at the expense of forests. The devastation that Hurricane Mitch dealt to several Central
American countries in 1998 should be a clear warning to many of these societies.

3.36 Long term sea level rise over coming decades will change the size and distribution of coastal wetlands and
increase the risk of coastal flooding (Wall, 1998; Nicholls et al., 1999). This will have both positive and negative
impacts on small islands, especially TCI (40% of the land area of the Bahamian atolls is classified as wetland according
to Oldfield and Sheppard, 1997). Sea level rises will also increase the risk of storm-generated coastal and beach erosion
and will increase the risk of salination of rivers and estuarine environments and salt water intrusions into coastal ground
waters, jeopardising agricultural production in and around coastal communities of the UK OTs, notably Anguilla and
TCI.

Hurricane Lenny

3.37 To emphasise the pre-dominance of tropical storms and hurricanes as a dynamic agent for changing the coastal
environments of several UK OTs, we list below some salient facts about Hurricane Lenny, the most recent storm of
significance to a UK OT, which hammered the Antillean islands, including Anguilla, in November 1999.
• Hurricane Lenny developed late in the Caribbean hurricane season, in mid-November
• It developed inside the Caribbean itself, it did not develop outside and enter from the east – a rare event
• It took a easterly or north-easterly track – a rare event (unprecedented in 113 years of record)
• The last two characteristics ensured that it struck islands’ west coasts, as opposed to east coasts, as is normal
• Lenny struck the Antillean islands only one month after Hurricane Jose.
• At its peak, Lenny was a Category 4 hurricane (on a severity scale of 1 to 5; there were only five Category 5
Caribbean hurricanes in the 20th Century)
• Maximum wind speeds reached 150 mph
• Lenny struck Anguilla’s tourist centres and beaches
• According to some reports, some beaches were little damaged, and
• Anguilla hotels were not flooded (Anguilla News, 28 / 11 / 1999)
• According to other reports, 4 m waves badly eroded Anguilla’s tourist beaches
• 500 mm (20”) rain fell on Anguilla in 2 days, causing widespread flooding (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1999/lenny).

17
3.38 The force of the wind is proportional to the square of the wind speed. Current IPCC predictions for 10 to 20%
higher wind speeds and thus more intense tropical storms during coming decades, if proved correct, indicate that more
Category 4 and 5 hurricanes will occur in the Caribbean than have in the past century. This would lead to significantly
more short term devastation and damage to small island coastal environments and the livelihoods that depend on them.
To assess the impacts of climate change as directed through increasingly severe storms, the effects and impacts on
sustainability of the very worst of past storms should be further studied.

3.39 Societies want to protect their assets. What has been done to protect the coasts of small island states? In general
and historically, coastal protection has meant ‘hard’ engineering schemes but these can have well documented negative
impacts on coastal environments. Just one example is that sea walls often protect property in the short term but
accelerate beach sand loss. It hardly needs stating that the beach is what draws many tourists and that losing it could be
disastrous for local livelihoods in coastal communities, quite apart from the long term environmental implications of
beach loss in reducing natural protection to coastlines. Hendry (1993), quoting a 1990 IPCC report “Climate Change:
IPCC response strategies”, listed the dollar costs (1990 money) and proportion of GDP of Wider Caribbean coastline
defence. The IPCC has not updated these figures but it is clear that the cost (% of GDP) of coastal defences to Anguilla
and TCI is larger than any other islands in the region. So, in expectation of more intense (more-severe) storms and
assuming that adaptation strategies are put in place, we are confident that:
• the cost of sea defences in the region will likely escalate, risking sustainability of development
• future costs of protecting the coasts of both Anguilla and TCI will be an increasing proportion of GDP
• a significant investment in ‘soft’ engineering schemes is required to ensure long term (if dynamic) protection.

Island Coastal Defence Cost (% Cost ($ million)

GDP)

Anguilla 10 83
Antigua 1 152
Bahamas 3 2565
Belize 3 527
British Virgin Islands 1 93
US Virgin IslandsI 0.3 230
Cayman Islands 1 228
Haiti 0.1 124
Jamaica 0.1 462
Martinque 0.1 192
Montserrat 0.1 3
St Kitts and Nevis 2 140
St Lucia 0.8 123
St Vincent and the Grenadines 0.6 55
Trinidad and Tobago 0.2 1720
Turks and Caicos Islands 8 223

Table 3.5: Approximate costs of coastal defence for Wider Caribbean small islands in 1990. Adapted from Hendry
(1993), from original data from the IPCC.

18
4. Livelihoods on Small Islands and UK Overseas Territories

4.1 A livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets and activities required for means of living. A livelihood is
sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks and maintain or enhance its capabilities and
assets both now and in the future, while not undermining the natural resource base (based on the definition of Carney,
1998). Sources of most or all forms of capital can be limited on small islands, including the selected UK OTs. Risk and
vulnerability are most important in influencing livelihood assets themselves and how different livelihood strategies,
structures and processes influence the sustainability. We have seen that island climates are changing and will change
further during the next few decades and we have outlined some of the effects this might have on critical natural resources
and the environmental services. This is why climate change has the potential to cause significant damage to island and
UK OT livelihoods.

4.2 It is clear that livelihoods are precarious in the selected UK OTs. As Tables 3.1 and 3.2 show, their economies
are poorly diversified. This means that there are limits to livelihood options. For example, employment opportunities
are severely limited and concentrated on fisheries (Anguilla, St Helena, Tristan da Cunha) and / or tourism (Anguilla and
pre-eruption Montserrat). On Pitcairn, the subsistence economy is based on agriculture and fishing, with revenue
generated from the sale of postage stamps. Remittances from family members who have migrated to other countries are
an important source of income in most of the UK OTs (on Tristan da Cunha and St Helena especially). GDP per capita is
under $10,000 on all the selected UK OTs and only $5,000 on St Helena. For comparison, GDP per capita is over
$28,000 on BVI.

4.3 Here we examine key issues that affect the livelihoods of residents of the UK OTs and discuss the implications
of climate change on these. We consider the dominant areas: fisheries and tourism; that are directly and indirectly
impacted by the stock and integrity of natural capital. We also look at other areas we consider climate change will
significantly affect. These include health, infrastructure, insurance and migration, which impact on island community
livelihoods and which are relevant to development programmes and projects. Finally in this section, we outline
implications of climate change for coping strategies and adaptation options.

i. Fisheries

4.4 Fisheries and potential impacts on them are extremely important for the small island states, as a source of
income but also as a significant proportion of protein intake. Fisheries in small island developing states are made up of
both artisanal and small-scale commercial fisheries and this is the pattern in the selected UK OTs. Commercial and
subsistence fishing are crucial to the livelihoods of many inhabitants. Fish is a major export of Anguilla, St Helena and
Tristan da Cunha. In Turks and Caicos five fish processing plants process lobster and conch that generate $3 million
each year (Finfish landings are mainly for local consumption). Fishing is generally artisanal and exploits primarily
inshore fisheries, although the small fleet of St Helena harvests migratory species such as tuna. Small scale sustainable
fisheries not only provide important dietary components to islanders but may be responsible for long term good returns,
as on Tristan da Cunha (Cooper et al., 1992). The impact of climate change on fisheries is complex and interacts with
non-climate related stresses. Inshore fisheries are dependent on sustained coastal ecosystems, dominated by reefs and sea
grasses. The largely negative impacts of sea-level rise and sea surface temperature increases and consequent loss of live
coral cover represents a real and serious threat to near-shore fisheries in these small islands.

4.5 For many deep-sea fisheries, the interaction between El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena and fisheries
production is a crucial area, particularly if increased frequency or severity of El Niño events are linked to global
warming. For example, Pacific skipjack tuna stocks seem to be controlled largely by the periodicity of ENSO events
(Lehodey et al., 1997).

4.6 The South Atlantic has supported a large-scale pelagic fishery since the 1940s associated with the Benguela
Current but is subject to interannual variations known as Benguela Niños. The fishery occasionally suffers marked
declines in productivity and crashes in pilchard and anchovy stocks (Boyer et al., 2000). These are linked to anomalous
sea surface temperatures and often occur about a year after Pacific El Niños. There is increasing evidence that sea
surface temperature anomalies in this area are linked to ‘red tide’ events that are deleterious effects to the Namibian
fisheries sector, including to stock recruitment (Boyer et al., 2000). There is no evidence we can find of similar impacts
on the fisheries employed by the St Helena fleet. However, the influence on fisheries of ENSO and similar regional scale
ocean phenomena and changes to their frequency, extent and severity as global warming occurs, is a significant and
growing cause for concern and is especially relevant to sustaining fishery-based livelihoods on several UK OTs.

19
ii. Tourism

4.7 Tourism is an important source of revenue and employment for some of the UK OTs, as it is for many small
island states, especially in the Caribbean. Predicted climate change will have both direct and indirect impacts on tourism
to these islands (Smith, 1990). Sea level rise almost certainly will disrupt the sector through loss of beaches, inundation,
degradation of coastal ecosystems, saline intrusion, loss of wetlands and damage to critical infrastructure. In Anguilla
and the Turks and Caicos Islands tourism is centred on beach and shoreline and these tourists expect ‘paradise’ (Honey,
1999), so disruption to these natural ecosystems and implications for infrastructure, construction and for property
insurance will have significant impacts on livelihoods.

4.8 World-wide, tourism is a rapidly growing sector and this increase is mirrored in the UK OTs. Dharmaratne et
al. (2000) note that several studies show that for 50 to 70% of tourists to Central and South America, protected areas are
important in determining destinations. But often, tourism does not capture economic benefits locally because of revenue
‘leakage’ out of the country and because marine parks do not impose user fees (Brown et al., 2001). Dharmaratne et al.
(2000) report that visitors to the Turks and Caicos Islands have been generally unwilling to pay even a small entrance fee
to protected areas. Also, Faulkner (2001) worries that almost no tourist areas of word-wide importance have properly
developed disaster management plans, even though they can all expect to experience a disaster of one form or another
with “virtual certainty”. With this in mind, the pre-dominance of the hurricane threat in the Caribbean is worrying.

4.9 Visitor numbers to Anguilla have gone up rapidly in last two decades and tourism now generates more than 31%
total economic activity. Unfortunately, the experience of Montserrat following its recent volcanic eruptions demonstrates
that tourist demand and thus tourist-based livelihoods are sensitive both to natural disasters and to the perceived and
actual quality of key natural resources and the environmental services they supply. This sensitivity has been amply
demonstrated on small islands and other developing countries where tourism constitutes an important livelihood source
(see, for example, Brown et al., 1997 with respect to the Maldives and Nepal). Such sensitivity is also demonstrated by
the ‘our beaches are untouched’ response of the Anguilla tourist industry to reported devastation caused by Hurricane
Lenny in 19994 . But, tropical storms can be devastating. The most destructive storm of the 20th Century – Hurricane
Gilbert - eroded 3 metres from 50% of Jamaica’s tourist beaches (causing an estimated revenue loss of $5 billion).

4.10 Large-scale tourism often brings fewer benefits to local employment and income than locally owned and
controlled development. Local partnerships for capturing the benefits of tourism are an important element to the
sustainable management of coastal and marine resources in Caribbean islands (for the example of Tobago, see Brown et
al., 2001). As climate changes ramp up during the next century, we are clear that it will be increasingly important to act
locally on the UK OTs to adapt to and cope with the impacts of these changes.

4.11 Some UK OTs, such as Anguilla and St Helena and to a limited ext ent, Pitcairn, have cruise ship tourism and
growth in this sector will depend on maintenance of port infrastructure. Changes to seasonal weather patterns and sea
states that we cannot yet model might have detrimental effects. Furthermore, tourism in UK OTs may be indirectly
affected by rises in the costs of international air travel in the coming decades as a result of greenhouse gas (GHG)
mitigation strategies. Less obviously, though possibly in the long term, just as important to the selected UK OTs, could
be erosion of marine and terrestrial biodiversity, as a result of climate change (this has been recognised in St Helena and
the St Helena Millennium Forest Project is aimed at raising awareness and fostering national pride in the island’s
endemic species). Again, tourism would be first sector affected and the most seriously so. This conclusion stems from
an appreciation of the increasing importance of ‘eco-tourism’ to tourism industries world-wide and the growing public
perception that in a world of dwindling natural resources, bio-diverse natural environments are ‘must visit before it’s too
late’ places. These are powerful incentives in conjunction with the ‘paradise’ requirement noted in # 4.7 above.

4.12 Overall, because of downstream negative impacts on tourism, impacts of climate change on key natural
resources like coral reef systems and beaches and to infrastructure, could be critical to the very survival of
marginally sustainable societies in the small island states. Direct impacts on tourist facilities of individual storms,
though severe, should be non-critical in the long run.

iii. Health

4.13 Three main factors constrain health on small islands according to Royle (1995). These are scale and isolation
(leading to a limited gene pool) and (lack of) access to financial and development resources to generate effective health
service provision. Royle illustrates this by considering Ascension, St Helana and Tristan da Cunha and UK aid provision
to these islands. Such isolated societies generally have specific health problems, for example, asthma and heart disease
on Tristan da Cunha (Zamel et al., 1996; Morris, 1997) but we find little previous research on possible implications for
the health of these islands’ populations from climate change.

4
Anguilla News, 28 / 11 / 1999
20
4.14 More generally, the human health consequences of climate change could be significant and far-reaching and
could impact on the sustainability of livelihoods in many societies (de Sylva, 1993). There is evidence that some insect-
borne and water-borne diseases may become more prevalent in the future as temperatures increase and rainfall patterns
change. Dengue fever, for example, is found in the island states of the Caribbean and its incidence may increase.
Evidence from the South Pacific suggests a strong correlation of dengue fever incidence with ENSO events (Hales et al.,
1996). Thus, if thresholds of critical weather variables are exceeded more frequently in future, we can expect increased
incidence of this disease. Other diseases, including malaria, may increase their ranges to affect some of the UK OTs.
Other observed health impacts associated with ENSO events, such as fish poisoning (Hales et al., 1999), also pose threats
to the UK OTs in a warmer world.

4.15 The vulnerability of small island populations to epidemics as a result of climate change (Woodward et al., 1998)
clearly needs to be accounted for in health planning and policy. It is unclear to us what precisely the effects of climate
change might be on well documented and particular health problems within the populations of some of the UK OTs. It is
similarly unclear to us whether increases in overall air temperatures of between 1.5 and 60 C will have any significant
impact on heat-stress related illness in the Wider Caribbean. We are confident, however, that such a problem will not
occur in the South Atlantic or on Pitcairn. Finally, it is possible that increasing sea temperatures will bring as yet
unforeseen health problems, from, for example, poisonous marine life and shark attack. We found no work on these
subjects relevant to the UK OTs.

iv. Infrastructure

4.16 Physical capital includes basic infrastructure: transport and communications, shelter, water and sanitation and
energy. Each of these is likely to be impacted by climate change. Many island states, including several of the selected
UK OTs, are especially vulnerable because of their remoteness. For example, damage to port and harbour and airport
structures and facilities as a result of more intense storms or sea level rise could result in certain islands being cut off
completely. Table 3.2 shows that port use is already limited in Montserrat, Pitcairn Island, St Helena and Tristan de
Cunha. DFID (1999) indicates that St Helena has no safe anchorage in high seas and that Tristan da Cunhna can only be
accessed by sea for up to 70 days each year. Pitcairn is reliant on one small cove and jetty. Possible impacts of climate
change should be taken into account in planning any port upgrading in these islands. Unfortunately, our current state of
knowledge about possible climate futures in the South Atlantic and South-east Pacific is extremely limited, so we cannot
yet say what changes are likely that might affect access.

4.17 Gable and Aubrey (1990) note that Barbados lost 6 m of beach from its west coast in the 30 years prior to 1990,
mainly because sand mining put beaches at risk from storms. Also, as we noted earlier, ‘hard’ engineering for coastal
protection can be counter-productive in the long term. Climate change must now be taken into account by planners and
coastal defence engineers and we concluded earlier that ‘soft’ or environmental engineering schemes may offer
sustainable alternatives for many small islands at risk from storms.

4.18 Putting aside the shoreline itself, the predicted changes in climate outlined earlier will have implications for the
design and costs of housing, roads, bridges and other island infrastructure. Hurricane Hugo damaged over 90% and
destroyed 20% of houses in Montserrat and as we noted earlier, several recent hurricanes have famously caused
devastation to many countries in the region. If climate change increases the intensity of storms then each storm, on
average, will cause more damage to property and roads. Likely increases in storm intensity and rainfall in coming years
must be taken into consideration in building roads and other infrastructure, for example ensuring that adequate
precautions are taken to prevent land slips and severe erosion on steep slopes and in designing bridges to take account of
increased flood risk. Drainage systems must be designed to meet more severe storm surges and more intense rainfall
events. In summary, we recommend a review and revision of building and infrastructure design criteria on the UK OTs.

4.19 The legislative and planning systems of these islands need to take into account climate change impacts in
applying controls to development, especially but not only, right on the coast. Such controls might include regulating the
excavation of materials and clearance of vegetation, including mangroves and sea grasses, in designing appropriate
coastal defences, in regulating deforestation and agricultural practice that might encourage soil erosion and gullying, and
in regulating house-building programmes. This is already a problem on some of the UK OTs and we anticipate that
climate change will further exacerbate this problem in the coming decades. We recommend urgent action to address
these issues.

iv. Insurance

4.20 Development and maintenance of infrastructure can be threatened or delayed where insurance is unavailable or
costly. Small islands already suffer the costs of remoteness through, for example, high freight insurance. Insurance
premiums are sensitive to the size and frequency of hazards, including weather-related phenomena such as tropical
storms. Increased incidence or intensity of these events will trigger increases in insurance premiums. The IPCC Third

21
Assessment Report will report that insurance costs have increased significantly in the Caribbean during the 1990s. So
high were the claims related to natural disasters in the region that some re-insurers withdrew from the market.

4.21 Such action will present serious problems in future as the UK OTs may not be able to acquire adequate
insurance cover for property, businesses and personal injury and death caused by natural hazards. This has consequences
for livelihoods, directly through increase costs for individuals and businesses and indirectly by acting as disincentives to
investment and trade. Who will cover uninsurable losses in the UK OTs?

vi. Migration and Remittances

4.22 An important factor in many of the UK OTs has been the prevalence of migration and remittances as strategies to
enhance the sustainability of local livelihoods. Indeed, according to Marshall (1982) 150 years of migration from the
eastern Caribbean (primarily for work) has made migration a “characteristic” of the region, part of its history and its
social fabric. Most recently, some return migration to the Caribbean islands has occurred. These processes are extensive
in small island states and have conventionally been portrayed as having largely negative impacts, with pejorative labels
such as the ‘remittance economies’ applied to the Caribbean, and the MIRAB economies in the South Pacific.

4.23 Maul (1993) presented migration as possibly the greatest climate change “threat” to Caribbean societies. But
Connell and Conway (2000) present a different perspective on the influences of migration and remittances. They contend
that migration and remittances are key to the welfare of people of many remote small islands and enable their populations
to adapt to the age of globalisation. Migration and remittances provide flexibility in livelihood options and return
migrants enrich the stocks of human, social and cultural capital of small islands, bringing with them links to trans-national
networks. In contrast to the view that remittances fuel conspicuous consumption and undermine local economies, Connell
and Conway contend that, in fact, remittances encourage positive investments and savings and support investments in
basic needs and education.

4.24 Remittances foster further mobility in the populations of small islands. Importantly, migration and remittances
are critical in dealing with natural hazards as evidenced in many small island contexts (for example, Western Samoa, as
discussed below) and various Caribbean islands in response to hurricane damage and in the case of Montserrat, to recent
volcanic eruptions. Migrants raise large amounts of money to fund recovery. Natural disasters also act as a significant
‘push’ factor for migration. In addition, the role of host countries is important and in the case of UK OTs, the UK will be
the most important host country, if possibly not the only one. The implications are extremely important for dealing with
likely impacts of climate change. We expect that increasingly severe or intense storms will be the aspect of future climate
change that most obviously ‘pushes’ future migrations but further work on possible specific climate changes to the South
Atlantic islands is urgently needed before we can suggest downstream impacts on migration there. At this stage, changes
in sea surface temperature and regional ocean current regimes and consequent deleterious effects on local fisheries appear
to be the most likely reasons for out-migration from these islands. Other possible reasons include collapse of local tourist
industries through storm damage to beaches and coastal habitats and severe water supply problems and significant
reductions in agricultural productivity, both caused by droughts.

Livelihoods, Vulnerability and Coping Strategies

4.25 Livelihood strategies in the selected UK OTs depend on the natural resources base and environmental services
and / or they are related to migration. The key feature of UK OT livelihoods is not just that they rely more heavily on
fragile natural resources than many societies but that they rely on a very limited set of natural resources in coastal and
marine resource systems. Livelihoods are not greatly diversified; nor are there many opportunities for greater
diversification (Ellis, 2000). This affects the ability of residents and communities to withstand shocks and variability and
compromises their ability to recover. That there are so few livelihood alternatives and means of diversification re-
emphasises the vulnerability of local livelihoods to projected climate change and related disasters. In these
circumstances, remittances from overseas become significant and may be a key feature in determining the ability of local
populations to cope with future climate change impacts.

Summary

4.26 Our review of climate change impacts on livelihoods has highlighted various development impacts. The
economic and social vulnerability of the UK OTs demands that the potentially significant impact of projected climate
change will require planned adaptation. Natural resources are critical to present and future vulnerability. Most
importantly, populations are vulnerable to extreme weather events today and make adjustments to their livelihood
strategies to cope with today’s climate. So, climate change-related impacts on environmental services important to island
livelihoods are already occurring; for example, through increasing sea surface temperatures causing coral reef destruction.
These current changes have been neither expected and planned for, nor adequately coped with and adapted to.

22
4.27 For example, Anguilla’s country profile in the UNDP ECLAC/CDCC internet report, based on Anguilla Ministry
of Home Affairs’ responses to a 1997 UNDP survey 5 makes interesting reading:

“…. the government of Anguilla has neither developed nor upgraded national legislation to address climate
change issues.”

and later on:

“….a disaster emergency fund has not been proposed for Anguilla at this time, and disaster policy has not been
integrated into the national development planning process.”6

4.28 Does this indicate a genuine lack of interest, or a perception that the peoples of the small island UK OTs can do
little or nothing either to prevent or to survive accelerating climate changes? Have policy makers’ opinions changed in the
past three or four years? These questions may be answered in part by the response to the survey of UK OT stakeholders
undertaken as part of this study.

4.29 We cannot directly cool huge swaths of ocean to stop coral kills and so remove this threat to the long term
sustainability of island livelihoods. Neither can we control the strength of storms. But, it is our contention that such large
scale environmental change can be survived. Coping is acting to survive and adaptation involves changing the
institutional arrangements and livelihood strategies to increase the probability of surviving disasters, whilst sustaining
development. Adaptation may need to include further diversification - developing alternative income sources, migration
or similar major changes, as well as direct interventions by local governments, the UK and the international donor
community.

Policy Intervention and Community Ownership

4.30 Recent analyses of resource dependent communities in other parts of the world have demonstrated that
underlying vulnerability can be identified and alleviated through policy intervention. For example, in coastal South East
Asia, unsustainable resource extraction and inappropriate government response can exacerbate vulnerability, making
populations more at risk from both present day coastal flooding as well as long-term climate change (Nguyen Hoang Tri,
et al., 1998; Adger, 1999). In seeking to understand processes of adaptation in their wider context, analysis is required to
highlight explicitly the stakeholders who will gain and those who will lose from predicted climate changes. It is vital that
on small islands, appropriate planning for climate change is undertaken now and that this includes real and effective
participation of local community stakeholders. We strongly recommend that such analyses are undertaken.

4.31 Collective action for coping is an important element in social coping and the dangers of replacing traditional by
formal social security are well known (see, for example, Platteau, 1991), perhaps leading to the development of
unsustainable dependency cultures. A present day example of the role of institutions in managing and mediating impacts
on a small island illustrates their importance in resource-dependent societies. The agricultural economy of Western
Samoa is dependent on cash crops such as pineapple and coconuts. These crops are susceptible to extreme weather
events. Paulson (1993) and Paulson and Rogers (1997) considered local coping strategies and post-disaster recovery after
a major tropical storm hit the island. Despite a long term decline in the cultivation of some storm resistant crops and
‘famine food crops’, non-monetary informal arrangements for social security persist in Western Samoa and the moral
economy seems to be resilient to increased state and market involvement (Paulson, 1993). In this example, both
reciprocal collective action and migrant remittances enabled recovery and facilitated reconstruction.

4.32 Lugo (2000) notes that, depending on the strength of local community-based institutions, it can take decades for
a coastal community to recover from one Category 4 or 5 hurricane and that effective short-term migration and other
coping strategies can be critical to keeping recovery time to a minimum. He also advises strongly that a combination of
improved construction methods, green infrastructure (‘soft’ defences) and appropriate hard defences can minimise storm
damage but must be undertaken in ways that do not harm livelihood-significant natural resources and those that conserve
biodiversity7 . Luttinger (1997) provides a useful example of successful community-based conservation efforts in
Honduras. In an effort to accommodate a surge in nature tourism and un-supported by government, local communities
there created and managed marine protected areas. The St Helena Millennium Forest Project is another excellent
example, at national scale of an attempt to raise awareness of the importance of biodiversity and conservation and aims to
foster national pride in the island’s endemic species. This and other examples (for example, from Western Samoa and
Tobago, and along many coastlines world-wide) provide strong support for our contention that national and community
natural resource management capacity needs strengthening in the UK OTs.

5
http://www.sdnp.undp.org/~eclac/CARMIN/DOCS/anguilla.htm
6
BVI’s response was slightly more encouraging (http://www.sdnp.undp.org/~eclac/CARMIN/DOCS/bvi.htm)
7
According to DFID (1999) marine biodiversity is Anguilla’s greatest asset.
23
4.33 Sea level rise, like other climate change threats, need not always have a negative impact on livelihoods. Three
response options to sea level rise are often proposed (see, for example, Bijlsma et al., 1996, for the IPCC):
• Planned Retreat – emphasising abandoning land and structures in highly vulnerable areas
• Accommodation (or ‘soft’ defence) – conservation, continued occupancy and adaptive management responses
• Protection (or ‘hard’ defence) - defending vulnerable areas, homes, economic activities and natural resources.

4.34 Each of these methods offers livelihood opportunities. The first requirement is for up-to-date information and
mapping of topography and bathymetry, natural resources, habitats and flora and fauna, human populations and socio-
economic data. Joined-up thinking should be applied to sea level rises and other climate change threats, as part of
integrated coastal zone management.

Integrated Coastal Zone Management

4.35 The selected UK OTs and other small island states rely heavily on their coastal resources. On an island-wide and
regional scale, improved integrated coastal zone management systems (ICMs) will be crucial in limiting negative effects
of climate-related threats (Aston, 19998 ; Solomon and Forbes, 1999) and making the most of possible benefits. We
conclude that UK OT, small island and regional ICM plans must include:
• wide consultation, education, outreach, participation and consensus building
• national and local action with regional co-operation
• a precautionary approach
• a realistic, step-wise and community-focussed approach
and specifically:
• a better understanding of process interactions in complex and dynamic coastal ecosystems
• improved hazard mapping, taking into account plausible climate futures
• improved understanding and integration of community and other stakeholder responses to
- acute climate-related threats
- long term (‘slow burning’) climate impacts.

Regional Initiatives and Toolbox Methods

4.36 In a future warmer, stormier world, the persistence and encouragement of informal institutional arrangements
and social security will remain critical to reducing vulnerability, to adaptation and to the generation of sustainable
livelihoods. The ready availability of relevant information about climate change, scenarios, impacts, livelihood links and
strategy options will be vital to small island decision-makers.

4.37 The IPCC global initiative to document and explain climate changes and their possible impacts is well known.
Less grandiose global initiatives include the Synthesis and Upscaling of sea-level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Studies
(SURVAS) package (de la Vega-Leinert and Nicholls, 2000). SURVAS aims to develop further understanding of
accelerated sea-level rise by reviewing existing studies and associated methods and develop improved regional and global
perspectives on accelerated sea-level rise and associated impacts. The EU-funded SURVAS project concentrates on
review of sea level rise, primary and secondary impacts and dissemination of current knowledge through publications and
workshops, to a wide academic and government community. It appears to have little or no community level engagement,
nor any small island emphasis. One recent initiative aimed specifically at UK OTs is the UK Overseas Territories
Conservation Forum, which provides valuable inter-island communication at the level of up-stream science issues,
including climate change and brings these quite effectively in front of policy-makers and to a lesser extent to the public
(for example in St Helena). Local focus and participation at community level to facilitate community level adaptation
strategies to counter the deleterious of climate change could further strengthen this initiative.

4.38 There is a regional initiative of note for the Caribbean, aimed at downstream planning and adaptation. This is:
Caribbean Planning and Adaptation to Global Climate Change (CPACC). The CPACC project was designed in response
to the Conference on the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States which took place in Barbados in
April / May 1994. CPACC was intended to support twelve participating Caribbean countries in preparing to cope with
adverse effects of global climate change (particularly sea level rise) on coastal areas. The small CPACC team does this
through undertaking vulnerability assessments, adaptation planning and capacity building.

4.39 The CPACC initiative is funded by the UN Global Environment Facility (GEF), is supported by the Organisation
of American States (OAS), and is implemented in Barbados. CPACC has instigated a series of interventions for
participating countries. These include:

8
Aston outlines effective ICM, based on a village-level resources surveys and village level fisheries management planning.
24
• design and establishment of a sea level / climate monitoring network
• establishment of databases, information systems and inventories of coastal resources and uses
• formulation of a policy framework for integrated coastal and marine management
• a series of pilot projects in selected countries on:
- coral reef monitoring for climate change
- coastal vulnerability and risk assessment
- economic valuation of coastal and marine resources
- formulation of economic/regulatory proposals.

4.40 The CPACC team also attempts to enable the preparation of national communications in response to
commitments to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The project is due to end in
December 2001. CPACC has been somewhat restricted by its remit and while it has encouraged regional level interaction
it appears to be rather technically oriented and has had little involvement from any UK OT. Such regional initiatives are
potentially valuable and CPACC participants hope that it will be replaced by another five-year project looking at the
implementation adaptation strategies (provisionally called IMPACC), with a wider partnership, which will include UK
Overseas Territories. But, to take forward the CPACC initiative and develop effective local scale awareness of climate
change issues and adaptation strategies, community level involvement is urgently needed.

4.41 As we have found, there is a burgeoning relevant literature on climate change and on conservation of natural
resources and bio-diversity. There is much less information available on links between climate change and the
environmental services on which UK OT livelihoods so crucially depend. Hence integrated management (for example,
ICM) is a necessary pre-requisite to ensure the sustainability of livelihoods facing stress as a result of climate change.
There is increasing experience of the use of electronic ‘toolboxes’ to provide policy-makers with useful and up-to-date
information on complex subjects in a structured and user-friendly way, to inform planning and policy (Morton, 2000). A
toolbox can be a compact and non-linear ‘soft’ decision-support system that includes scientific findings, policy option
summaries, live web links, networking facilities and downloadable applications.9 We recognise, however, that ‘web-
based’ technologies are only a small part of the answer - they are but tools to facilitate delivery of joined-up management.

Summary

4.42 Small-island developing economies are resource dependent and livelihoods have adapted to cope with variability
and extremes of the present day climate system. But the problems associated with being dependent on single or narrow
resource bases and environmental services are almost certain to be magnified by the impacts of future climate change.
Climate change should be very much a ‘present day’ concern for livelihoods in the UK OTs, and not one that decision-
makers can defer a decade or more. Future climate change will probably bring more severe extreme events, particularly
droughts and severe storms. We see the following priority interventions for integrating climate change into planning for
sustainable development:
• strengthening the basis and diversity of livelihoods in the UK OTs
• building on traditional and existing climate and disaster coping and adaptation mechanisms
• facilitating participatory, community-led initiatives (including integrated coastal zone management)
• through this, creating effective strategies for coping with and adapting to climate changes, as they occur
• facilitating improved regional awareness and informal institutional arrangements, and
• providing improved information handling and dissemination for regional, national and local decision support.

9
http://www.bham.ac.uk/DSA/confmorton.doc
25
5. Survey Responses

5.1 As part of this study, 72 questionnaires were sent to stakeholders concerned with the six selected UK OTs,
including some who are UK-based (for example, FCO and DFID staff), some regional players and some island residents.
Summaries of knowledge, information and opinions were sought from government (UK and island), the scientific
community (many climate and conservation scientists) and those in specific sectors, for example fisheries.

5.2 The questionnaire is included here as Annex I. The questions were carefully chosen to:
• fit on one page, to encourage replies
• be easily understood by all those approached
• illuminate any areas of major concern to stakeholders
• address issues of local perceptions to climate change, including its relative importance to decision-makers
• help identify key impacts, and any adaptations and coping strategies that are in place or planned
• identify areas where there are critical knowledge gaps, hindering planning
• point to (stakeholder-generated) implications for the international donor community.

5.3 At the time of writing, 25 responses have been received (a 35% response rate) and Annex II lists those
approached and highlights those responding. Annex III is a summary table of the key points made by the respondents, by
question area and by island.

5.4 We provide a further short summary of stakeholder responses here as Table 5.1. The results of the survey are
valuable and are fully taken into account as we bring together the results of our analysis in a final section of the report:
Section 6.

26
Respondents Perceptions Threats Threatened Managing Change Knowledge Gaps Comment
From and To Sectors

Scientists 6 Very Especially sea Tourism, incl. Local governments Local interactions and OTs need
concerned temperature and eco-tourism. and NGOs have no reef recovery links to
sea level rise. Fisheries. capacity and are un- mechanisms. UNFCCC
Vulnerable island Water supply. informed Govs. need briefings
ecosystems, esp. Infrastructure and information
reefs; biodiversity
DFID 3 Concern Sea level rise, sea Tourism. Lack of capacity in Information-sparse.
over acute temperature, Health. Water local government Local training needed
disasters storm frequency, Supply and NGOs to take for decision-makers
(floods, floods. environment on
storms) Coral kills board or plan long
(bleaching). term
Anguilla 3 Little local Storms, sea level Tourism. No Ministry of Env. Need to know about Education and
concern or rise, drought Financial Poor disaster links between storms public
awareness Marine Env., Services. preparedness. and climate change awareness
beaches, water Agriculture. Decisions not based campaigns
supply Fisheries on informed opinion needed
Montserrat 2 Climate A little concern Tourism. Ministry of
change not about storms and Agriculture Agriculture has
an issue drought little capacity
(eruptions
are)
Turks and 2 Climate Sea level rise, sea Tourism. No adaptive No environmental Public
Caicos change not temperature, Infrastructure. strategies in place. inventory. awareness
seen as a storms, floods Fisheries Government Little information campaigns
threat. Beaches, marine unaware of climate available to needed
environment, reefs change impacts Government
Other 4 Some public Storm frequency Tourism. Limited local Research now
Caribbean concern and sea level rise. Agriculture. planning. Regional needed on
Reefs, mangroves Infrastructure. initiatives need mitigation
and buildings Fisheries building
St Helena 3 Low Rainfall, storms, Fisheries. No Government No available Must
government sea temperature. Water Supply. knowledge. Not information on strengthen
priority. No Water shortages, Health. taken on by Gov. climate change and institutions
public disease, pests, Agriculture. No adaptive impacts (in the dark) and raise local
concern. rare species, fish Port Access strategies in place - awareness
No info. stocks, port funding limited
access
Tristan da 1 Not much Sea temperature, Fisheries. Little local capacity No information - Need to
Cunha awareness rainfall variations. Water Supply for adaptation training, technical understand
Water shortages support and education effects on
needed fishing
Pitcairn 1 Climate Heavy rainfall, Agriculture. No local capacity Deputy Gov. raised Concern both
change not a Drought. Viability of issues with islanders over possible
concern Water shortages island on most recent visit. lower rainfall,
settlement Follow-up obtained and of
gullying and
soil loss
Total 25

Table 5.1: Summary of Stakeholder Responses by question area and by island. For a fuller summary of responses, see
Annex III.

27
6 Knowledge Gaps, Development Implications and Opportunities

Background

6.1 In this report we have taken future climate change as a pressure on environmental services that support island
livelihoods and sought to analyse likely and possible specific impacts and possible responses. We have summarised the
current state of scientific consensus concerning global and regional climate change during the next decades, to 2100. We
have considered climate-related threats that are relevant to small island states, characterised by their dependence on their
coastal natural resources. The threats include air and ocean temperature rises, sea level rise, increased intensity of storms
and rainfall and increased risk of seasonal drought, leading to water shortage.

6.2 We have outlined some of the ways that these climate change pressures will impact on the environments of the
small island UK OTs, and especially on key marine and coastal resources. We have outlined current thinking on how
these impacts will likely affect the livelihoods of the island populations and specifically several key sectors: fisheries,
tourism, infrastructure, agriculture and health. We have stressed the potentially important role of migration in
determining the impact of climate change on livelihood sustainability. We have concluded that climate change and
climate-related disasters must be managed as part of the development process.

6.3 We have considered some coping strategies and adaptation to climate change, including community-based and
regional initiatives and concluded that for these states, locally-focussed, integrated coastal zone management planning
was a first requirement. We have summarised the 25 responses received of the 72 questionnaires sent to stakeholders
concerned with the scientific issues, regions or individual UK OTs. Their responses confirm local knowledge and
perceptions of climate change issues, impacts of and adaptations to climate change.

6.4 Here we draw together the results of our study by first summarising what we know, can forecast with some
confidence and what we can recommend, based on current knowledge. Second we consider what gaps in knowledge
appear to exist that might be significant and inhibit effective decision-making with respect to climate change impacts,
coping and adaptation strategies for the selected UK OTs. Third, we outline what implications our findings might have
for the donor community. Finally, we make specific recommendations for action.

Knowledge Gaps

6.5 The main areas about which we need to know more are broadly described under the headings:
1. climate parameters
2. planning for extreme events
3. impacts on critical natural resources and environmental services
4. dependence on natural resources.

3.12 (1) Present climate models are global or regional at best. Downscaling to small island scale is just not yet
possible by commonly used means. This limits the accuracy of our predictions based on the global and regional picture
of climate futures endorsed by the IPCC. This knowledge gap will be partly filled as climate modelling science improves
in the coming decade. Of more concern to us is that no regional modelling has yet been undertaken of the South Atlantic
or the South East Pacific. Thus, knowledge of scale and temporal dimensions of climate change in these two regions is
especially lacking and we can say less than we would like to be able to about likely climate change in these regions. For
example, changes in regional ocean circulation patterns are likely to be especially important.

6.7 The relationships between global warming and ENSO are poorly understood and must be of prime concern to
the UK OT environments and their societies. So we recognise a knowledge gap here which needs filling by the climate
science community. Specifically, we have identified a gap in knowledge of likely changes to the seasonal distribution
and patterns of rainfall that will impact on water availability on St Helena and Anguilla especially and elsewhere
amongst the selected UK OTs. More research is needed on changes to the tropical storm climates that have been mooted.
Put simply, scientific analysis and modelling is needed to improve the quality of predicted changes and their direct
impacts on critical environmental services. This is clearly of concern to the UK as well as the UK OTs but at least the
UK has centres well placed to undertake much of this work. In summary, we are confident in the projected trends but the
magnitudes of changes are still far from certain.

6.8 We have found that there is a wide and basic lack of information and understanding amongst most UK OT
communities and international community about the relevance of future climate changes to their lives – a typical
Caribbean response is “only hurricanes are important threats”. We also note that the South Atlantic communities have
not the least idea of what changes might occur in their region. As we stress above, this is partly because the basic
research has not been done but there is also a clear need for appropriate dissemination of current thinking in appropriate
formats to all levels of society, including to community level. We would welcome the strengthening of UK OT NGOs to

28
help achieve this. For example, apart from drought, threats to water resources include increased flood risks, impeded
drainage and elevated water tables. These may pose particular engineering problems. Currently there is a gap in local
understanding of how rising water tables and increased salination of coastal water supplies is likely to affect livelihoods.
Options available to small islands for reducing adverse effects of climate change on water supply appear limited. Thus,
improved water resource management and allocation, water harvesting and conservation methods are needed and
desalination may be a feasible option for some islands but much of these adaptation strategies will be locally managed
and communities need planning involvement now. These threats are already present on small islands, including these
UK OTs. We are confident that climate change will exacerbate the problems and our conclusion is that urgent, locally-
based action is now required.

6.9 (2) The selected UK OTs, like many other small island states, depend wholly on their coastal and marine
resources for their residents’ livelihoods. The environmental services that these natural resources supply serve local
populations and tourists. As their climates change, a critical constraint on sustainable development will be deleterious
effects of extreme events: droughts, floods and storms. To assess the impacts of climate change as directed through
increasingly severe storms, the effects and impacts on livelihoods of the very worst of past storms should be further
studied. A significant gap in current knowledge is an understanding of how the long term impacts of climate change
should and will affect planning for extremes and acute disasters. It is especially important to consider the impacts of
slow change (in sea level and sea temperature, for example) when planning new constructions to withstand future storms,
or reservoirs or when planning to counter health epidemics. We recommend a review of climate and weather-related
design criteria and building codes.

6.10 (3) There are important knowledge gaps on the impacts of climate changes on the long-term viability of the
ecological resources of many small islands, including all of the selected UK OTs. Here we have concentrated on some
critical coastal marine resources that directly affect local livelihoods and (except for coral reef systems), this is where the
least information is currently available. There is growing concern over the viability of conservation of diverse island
habitats (for example, Cronk, 1997; Shea and Dyoulgerov, 1997; Loope, 1998; and Sheppard and Seaward, 1999) and
some that are not diverse but yet ‘important’ (for example St Helena, Pitcairn and Henderson Island in the Pitcairn Group
- Cooper et al., 1992; Maunder et al., 1995; Waldren et al., 1995; Percy and Cronk, 1997). We conclude that further
work is urgently needed to determine probable impacts of climate change on critical mangrove resources and on sea
grasses. Much more systems-oriented work is needed, as the natural resources and the environmental services they
provide are intimately interconnected within the islands’ coastal ecosystems.

6.11 With little prospect for ‘natural migration’ from the most isolated island communities, some species may face
increased threats of extinction despite investments aimed at in situ conservation. Similarly the ecological importance of
these small niche populations is not well understood and this needs further research. In addition the determinants of
variability of natural populations such as fish that are of particular importance to island communities is not well enough
known to assess how they might be affected by climate change. This effort is further justified by the growing importance
of biodiverse environments to tourism and thus to island livelihoods.

6.12 (4) The ability of the UK OTs to cope with and adapt to future climate change is and will be a function of
their dependence on a dynamic, variable natural resource base. Their economic diversity and the robustness of their
adaptation strategies are also critical. We recognise gaps in knowledge concerning the linkage between migration
strategies and sustainable livelihoods for small island populations and note that there appears to be no useful information
on how these links will be affected by climate change – but they surely will.

6.13 We find little evidence of any local understanding of the links between sustainable utilisation of natural
resources and their variability. The complex relationships between changing environmental services and livelihoods on
these small islands needs further research. As an example, we noted the dependency of many small island societies on
tourism and that the type of tourism determines livelihood strategies but that large-scale tourism may bring fewer benefits
to local communities than locally controlled development (Brown et al., 2001; Weaver, 1998). To date, very little work
has been done to explore these relationships - more is needed.

6.14 It is unclear what the effects of climate change might be on well documented and particular health problems
within the populations of some of the UK OTs. We found no work on these subjects relevant to the UK OTs and suggest
that this is an area where reviewing case studies of climate stress on health would be useful, to be followed by specific
work in the selected UK OTs and other small island communities. This could be founded on the confident projections of
temperature trends we have highlighted, initially using worst case scenarios. Furthermore, this work could be undertaken
in conjunction with regional associations, such as a CPACC successor in the Caribbean.

29
6.15 In summary, we find:
• a tendency for Caribbean island societies to be concerned only with acute storms or eruption disasters.
• significant knowledge gaps with respect to the:
> relationship between global warming and ENSO, which is crucial to future climate change for all selected UK OTs
> relationship between climate change and tropical storms, especially in the Caribbean
> climate futures in the South Atlantic; and through poor dissemination, a critical gap in local knowledge on the subject
> long term effects of climate change on planning for extremes and disasters
> climate change threats to the natural capital of the islands and natural response mechanisms
• we find that there is a major lack of information available locally in government and in communities, about:
> the complex impacts of past climate-related disasters and past climate changes on their vulnerable island ecosystems
> the possible consequences for future climate change on key natural resources 10 and their environmental services 11
• we are particularly concerned about knowledge gaps that constrain the local development of:
> mitigation, coping and adaptation strategies in the UK OTs. These gaps include knowledge of:
- the relationship between migration strategies and livelihood sustainability
- strategies for sustaining livelihoods where climate-dependence (e.g. through tourism) are overwhelmingly important
- the relationship between future climate stress on the health of island communities.

5.16 The closure of these knowledge gaps will require effort by the science community, local NGOs, UK stakeholders
and the international community, to:
• improve our understanding of future regional climates
• work with government and other decision-makers to inform their development of appropriate adaptation strategies
• understand better the relationship between key coastal and marine environments and the livelihoods they serve, using
systems-orientated approaches to integrated coastal zone management
• target local information campaigns and training in government and at community level.

6.17 In Table 6.1 below, we pull together in short form the basic findings of the stakeholder survey. We find that
these responses fully confirm our analysis based on a synthesis of the available literature. In Table 6.1, the added value of
the stakeholder survey is highlighted. For example, we conclude that it is important that the Pitcairn response is
followed-up to consider sea level rise and access more fully. Furthermore, the preponderance for concern over storms and
little interest in other climate change in the Wider Caribbean has been amply demonstrated and is a significant conclusion.

Implications for Development Projects

Environmental management projects

6.18 We have stressed that improved and integrated environmental management will be important in adapting to
climate change, for example in building dynamic and soft coastal defences and protecting hillsides from the impacts of
severe storms. Targeted development activities are currently being undertaken in most of the selected UK OTs and other
small islands. These include environmental management schemes (including one in Anguilla). More projects like this are
going to be needed as climates change and they should be designed with plausible or likely climate changes in mind.
Such projects will add value to development efforts in a time of changing climate.

Engineering and infrastructure projects

6.19 Relatively small engineering and infrastructure projects are common in the selected UK OTs, especially on
Anguilla, where rebuilding post Hurricane Lenny and improving air- and seaport facilities are priorities. Similarly, on the
Turks and Caicos Islands, small building projects predominate for the education and health sectors. While ongoing
projects will not be impacted significantly by future climate change, their design parameters should be checked against
the latest IPCC projections especially for up to 20% greater maximum wind speeds in storms. All future engineering
projects will have to incorporate up-dated engineering design parameters12 .

Waste management schemes

6.20 There are several waste management schemes being undertaken in the Caribbean, including two on Montserrat.
Several of these schemes are concerned primarily with solid wastes but even these and especially those concerned
primarily with liquid wastes or island-wide waste management will need to take into account impacts of climate changes
we have discussed. These are primarily rainfall variations, leading to likely increases in frequency and severity of

10
for example: reefs, mangroves, sea grasses and beaches
11
especially the interaction between the additional long term impacts of ‘slow burning’ changes, such as sea level rise
and rising water tables, on top of more obvious and acute changes to storm characteristics
12
These are based on extremal statistics and generated by consulting engineers from meteorological and hydrological data.
30
 droughts and floods; and increased risk of pollution from waste management schemes, affecting critical onshore and
coastal natural resources.

Coastal and marine resources management schemes

6.21 We are aware of more than a dozen recently completed or ongoing coastal and marine resources management
schemes in the Caribbean, some regional and some island-based, including one in Anguilla and one on the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Most of these schemes are emphasising the importance of key coastal resources (such as coral reef
systems) to the island communities and several include public awareness as crucial dissemination outputs. The results of
our synthesis indicate that climate change will have direct and indirect impacts during the lifetime of these schemes and
should inform the management thereof, to ensure that they can form a part of the islands’ responses to the threats of near-
future climate change and guide the building of appropriate adaptations to very long term (and unstoppable) changes in
sea level.

UK OT Threats To: Key Sectors Local Capacity Knowledge Gaps Needs

General Vulnerable eco- Tourism, Fisheries, Local governments Information OTs need links to
systems, Health, Water Supply un-informed. Lack UNFCCC.
biodiversity. More of capacity in local Training for decision-
acute disaster government makers
(floods, storms )
Anguilla Marine Tourism, Finance, Little awareness, no What are links Education and public
environment, Agriculture, Fisheries relevant ministry. between storms and awareness campaigns
beaches, water Poor disaster climate change?
supply preparedness.
Montserrat A little concern Tourism. Agriculture Min. of Ag. has little Climate change not an
about storms and capacity issue
drought
Turks and Storms are main Tourism. No adaptive No environmental Public awareness
Caicos concern. Beaches, Infrastructure. strategies in place. inventory. campaigns needed
marine env., reefs Fisheries Government Little information Environmental
unaware of impacts for government Inventory needed
Wider Storm frequency Tourism, Agriculture, Limited local Research now Regional initiatives
Caribbean and sea level rise Infrastructure, planning. needed on need building
affecting reefs, Fisheries mitigation
mangroves
St Helena Lack of rainfall, sea Water Supply, No public concern. No information on Regional climate
level, sea Health, Fisheries, Low government climate change and models. Stronger gov.
temperature. Agriculture, Port priority since no impacts institutions and raise
Threats to water Access local knowledge. public awareness (as
supply, health, rare e.g. the millennium
species, fish stocks forest project)
Tristan da Sea temperature, Fisheries . Water Little awareness or No information - Need to understand
Cunha rainfall variations. Supply local capacity for training, technical effects on fishing
Water shortages adaptation support, education
needed
Pitcairn Lower rainfall Agriculture, rain Climate change not a No local awareness After follow-up, some
giving limited development concern concern over both
water shortages viability of island heavy rain and possible
population droughts and of access

Table 6.1: Summary of climate change threats and needs, based on a combination of literature review, analysis of recent
and on-going research, synthesis of livelihoods elements and responses to a stakeholder survey. Emboldening denotes the
particular added-value derived from the stakeholder survey.

Land resources management projects

6.22 There are seven watershed and land resources management projects ongoing in the UK OTs, including five in
Montserrat. These involve resource inventory and forest management as well as attempts to improve the reliability and
effectiveness of island-scale water supply. As we have seen, local perception on Montserrat is that climate change is not a
problem. We have shown that it will be (and soon). Changes in the intensity of tropical storms, increased rainfall
variability and more droughts will have direct and probably negative impact on island forest resources and on water
supply. Notwithstanding its recent past, Montserrat is a good example of an island in possible future crisis. We suggest a
re-assessment of the design criteria of this type of programme to take into account the latest IPCC climate change

31
projections, in order to ensure that there are not likely to be any early negative impacts on them of increasingly severe
storms, enhanced seasonal rainfall variations and expected sea level rises.

Disaster management projects

6.23 We have confirmed that acute disasters are of the highest priority to governments in the Wider Caribbean. We
are aware of more than a dozen current projects concerning managing disasters in the wider Caribbean. Several UK-
funded projects are based in Montserrat, with one on Dominica. Several projects are regionally-based. Clearly, efforts to
improve regional co-operation in disaster preparedness and management are needed and the current needs of Montserrat
are clear to all. But, our synthesis and survey show that apart from a lack of regional climate modelling, key knowledge
gaps are currently in local populations and island governments. These decision-makers are un-informed about likely
climate changes and impacts and global and regional initiatives are not yet adding enough value at island and local scales.
UK OT and other small island decision-makers are not able, therefore, to factor climate changes into their planning and to
start now developing appropriate and sustainable adaptation strategies. Local communities and island governments need
support from the international community, directly, through down-scaled regional initiatives and through local NGOs.
Specifically we find that:
• Pitcairn needs to know whether significant climate changes will affect it at all in coming decades
• St Helena needs to know more about what climate changes to expect and how these might impact its water supply
• Tristan da Cunha and St Helena need more information about impacts on the fisheries on which they depend
• Turks and Caicos and Anguilla (and many other islands) need to know more about indirect climate impacts on tourism
• All the Caribbean UK OTs need better information about projected future storm climates, especially in view of the
importance of storms to island disaster management and development
• All the selected UK OTs need to know more about the relationship between climate change, livelihoods and migration.

Recommendations

6.24 Global warming and associated changes are already happening and the risks to island communities will increase.
Temperatures could climb by up to 60 C by 2100 and sea levels could be nearly one metre higher. Increasingly severe
storms are likely in some regions. The climate changes will have significant impacts on livelihoods and societies in the
UK OTs and other small island states. In seeking to understand processes of adaptation in their wider context, analysis is
required to identify the stakeholders who will gain and those who will lose from predicted climate changes. It is vital
that appropriate planning for climate change is undertaken now and that this includes real and effective participation of
local community stakeholders. We strongly recommend that external stakeholders and the international donor
community support such analyses and facilitate such initiatives.

6.25 We recommend that pilot projects are designed to make the most of this development opportunity and we
consider that lessons learned will be transferable to many small island communities and to other developing countries,
where flood, drought, agriculture, fisheries and tourism dominate societies. Following our synthesis and in view of local
responses to the climate change threat we received, our ten specific and priority recommendations are to invest in:
• Filling gaps in knowledge of regional climate futures, especially in the South Atlantic and South Pacific, through co-
ordinated scientific effort and informed by the needs of UK OT societies
• Research into the interaction between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global warming
• Reviewing regional and global initiatives to determine how to improve their influence and contribution, including at
national level, in addressing the impacts and issues identified in this report
• Reviewing weather-related design criteria for planned developments in the UK OTs and other islands
• Supporting public awareness and information campaigns through local media and NGOs
• Providing training at government and community levels; giving robust briefing and advice on climate trends and
uncertainties at senior level, to inform the development of appropriate adaptation strategies
• Kick-starting development of action plans to cope with and adapt to climate changes through targeted strengthening of
ministries responsible for environment and planning on an island by island basis
• Providing community-focused interventions with the support of strengthened local NGOs, to facilitate local planning
adaptation to climate change and bearing in mind traditional strategies for coping with weather-related disasters
• Understanding better the relationship between key coastal and marine environments and the livelihoods they serve,
using a systems-orientated approach to integrated coastal zone management
• Supporting pilot projects to plan for likely future climate changes in one or more UK OT.

32
 Conclusion

6.26 Small-island developing economies are resource dependent and livelihoods have adapted to cope with the
variability and extremes of the present day climate system. Climate change should be of immediate concern to the UK
Overseas Territories and will increase in importance over coming decades. Climate change will bring changes that will
affect the environmental services on which the UK OT societies depend and so exacerbate current vulnerability. More
severe extreme events, particularly droughts and more intense storms will lead to damage to the natural, physical, human
and social capital of the communities. Thus, the priority for the long-term survival and sustainability of human
populations is to strengthen the basis and diversity of livelihoods in the UK OTs, through effective information
dissemination, by informing and strengthening government decision-making and by encouraging and facilitating
community leadership in developing adaptation strategies and management plans. Current activities in the UK OTs and
other small island states will be only slightly affected by future climate change but changes over the next decades will
have profound impacts on UK OT societies. In view of this and the current lack of local information and understanding,
effective use of funds will require more focus on community and government level information dissemination, training
and adaptation planning, feeding up to inform regional initiatives.

----||----

33
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39
Acronyms List

BVI British Virgin Islands

CDCC UN Council for Cultural Co-operation
CPACC Caribbean Planning and Adaptation to global Climate Change
CSD Caribbean Sustainable Development
DETR UK Department of Environment, Transport and the Regions
DFID UK Department for International Development
DTI UK Department of Trade and Industry
ECLAC UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation
EPD Environmental Policy Department (of FCO)
FCO UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office
GEF Global Environment Facility (of the UN)
GEP Global Environment Programme (of OTU)
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Green-House Gas
ICM(S) Integrated Coastal Management (System)
IMPACC Implementation Adaptation for Climate Change
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
NERC National Environment Research Council
NGO Non-Governmental Organisation
OAS Organisation of American States
OTD Overseas Territories Desk (of FCO)
OTU Overseas Territories Unit (of DFID)
PSIR Pressure / State / Impact / Response
SOPAC South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission
SURVAS Synthesis and Upscaling of Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Studies
TCI Turks and Caicos Islands
UK OT UK Overseas Territory
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNCTAD United Nations Commission on Trade And Development
USAID USA Department for International Aid

40
 Annexes

I Stakeholder Questionnaire 42

II Stakeholders Approached and Responses Received 43

III Summary of Stakeholder Response Key Points, by Question Area, by Island 46

41
 Annex I

Stakeholder Questionnaire

1. Is climate change an issue of concern to your organisation and if so, why?

2. Is climate change an issue of wide (public) concern on your island or in your region and if so why?

3. In your judgement, how important is climate change as a threat to or an opportunity for sustainable development?

4. What climate and weather variables and what impacts are of most concern to you and over what time scales?

5. On which sector(s) do you expect climate change to have most significant impact?
(Please distinguish between acute ‘disasters’ and chronic or long term impacts.)

6. Is uncertainty about climate change constraining decision-making in your organisation or elsewhere, and if so, how?

7. What adaptation strategies, if any, are in place or being developed by your organisation?

8. How much capacity is there to ensure assimilation of climate change impacts and adaptation into decision making?
a) in your organisation, b) nationally, and c) regionally.

9. Where and how might institutional capacity be strengthened?

10. Are you aware of any recently completed or ongoing work on climate change impacts for your island or region?
(Please provide a reference or contact details if possible.)

11. Where are the critical ‘knowledge gaps’, which require more research or information to inform decision making?

We would welcome any further comments you feel might be useful to our analysis, especially where your particular areas
of expertise or responsibility are not sufficiently covered by answering the questions above.

Are you available for a person-to-person telephone conversation in the next three weeks?
______________________
About you.
Name
Address
Organisation
Job title
Role
Expertise / reason for interest in climate impacts and adaptation

Thank you again. I look forward to hearing from you shortly.

Chris Sear

42
 Annex II

Stakeholders Approache d and Responses Received

N.B.: Emboldening denotes response by time of writing

Questionnaires Sent: 72 Responses Received: 25 (35%)

Name Affiliation Job / Role Country / Region

Anon. Centre for Marine Sciences, Caribbean

University of the West Indies,
Jamaica
Jennifer Amery DFID Health and Population UK, Caribbean
Adviser
John Ashton FCO Head of ESED UK
Brian Baldwin FCO Administrator Tristan da Cunha
Richard Beales DFID Senior Natural Resources and Anguilla, Barbados
Environment Adviser
Gerald Benjamin Fisheries Senior Fisheries Officer St Helena
(with J. Steele)
David Biggs DFID Senior Governance Adviser UK
Penny Bramwell DETR Global Atmospheres Division UK
Geoff Bredemear DFID Police and Criminal Justice UK
Adviser
John Buckley DTI UK
Fred Burton National Trust for Cayman Environmental Programs Cayman Is.
Is. Director
Clive Caffall DFID (circulated to others) Energy Adviser UK

Rebecca Cairns- Development and Economic Environmental Co-ordinator St Helena

Wicks Planning Department
Judi th Campbell National Parks Service
Alan Campbell DFID
Brain Challenger CPACC (Caribbean Planning
for Adaptation to Global
Climate Change Project)
Dr Vasantha Chase Natural Resource Management
Unit, (OECS)
Ijahnia Christian Anguilla National Trust
Project Manager, Coastal Turks and Caicos
Resources Management
Project
Deputy Programme Manager UK, Montserrat
Antigua and Barbuda - Caribbean
adaptation to climate change
St Lucia
Executive Director Anguilla

Sam Connor ? ? Anguilla

Bob Conrich Unsolicited response Private Citizen Anguilla
Andrea Cook DFID OTU Social Development Adviser UK
Dr Roland Craigwell Central Bank of Barbados Chief Economist Barbados
Renata Crist IPCC ? None
Sara Cross OT Conservation Forum Director for Development UK, UK OTs
Tom Crowards Government of St Helena Economist St Helena
Mark Day TCI Government Director of Environment and Turks and Caicos
Coastal Resources
Bill Dickson / Chris FCO OTD UK
Carter-Shaw
Prof. Andrew Downes University of the West Indies Director of ISER Barbados
Ian Dwyer NERC, Swindon Global Change Co-ordinator UK
Melissa O'Garro Senior Fisheries Officer, Montserrat
Montserrat

43
 Name Affiliation Job / Role Country / Region

Ethlyn Gibbs - TCI National Trust Executive Director TCI

Williams
James Glass Chief Islander & NR Manager Tristan da Cunha
Holger Grundel DFID Enterprise Development Adviser UK
Paul Hailston DFID Deputy Programme Manager UK, Montserrat
Prof. John Hay International Global Change Director of Professional New Zealand
Institute, University of Training
Waikato, Hamilton
Tony Hill Department of Agriculture NR Adviser, Department of Montserrat
Agriculture
Roland Hodge Director, Department of Anguilla
Fisheries and Marine Resources
John Hodges ? DFID (Not sure he has been Chief Engineering Adviser UK
polled)
Andrew Hopkinson FCO-OTD St Helena, Tristan da Cunha
Richard Klein Potsdam Institute for Senior Researcher Germany
Climatic Impact (response by
mail)
Penny Law UK Overseas Territories Chair and Trustee UK, UK OTs
Conservation Forum
Deborah McGurk ? Environmental Economics UK
Adviser, EPD
Steve Macnamarra Gov. Montserrat Senior Fisheries Officer Montserrat
Roy Metherell DFID Deputy Programme Manager UK, St Helena, BVI, Pitcairn
Islands and Tristian da
Cunha)
Chris Mees MRAG, Imperial College, Fisheries Manager UK, BIOT
London
Winston Moore Central Bank of Barbados Economist Barbados
Dr Robert Nicholls SURVAS Project Co-ordinator UK
Peter O’Neil DFID Engineering Adviser UK, Anguilla, TCI,
Montserrat
Patricia O'Donnell FCO ? ?
Iain Orr FCO, EPD Biodiversity Team leader UK
Jeremy Parr Primary Healthcare Environmental Health Adviser Anguilla
Department
Olga Pilifosova UNFCCC ? Globe
Bruce Potter Island Resource Foundation Foundation President British Virgin Islands
Vincent Proctor Gov. Anguilla Chief Planning Officer Anguilla
Leslie Richardson Gov. Anguilla Director of Environment Anguilla
David Robson DFID Engineering Adviser UK, St Helena, Pitcairn
Graham Sem UNFCCC ? Globe
C. Sheppard University of Warwick Research Scientist Uk, Globe and BIOT
Terry Smith Gov. Turks and Caicos Islands PS, Ministry of Natural Turks and Caicos Islands
Resources
Mark Spalding WCMC, Cambridge, UK Senior Marine Ecologist UK, UK OTs
Jasper Steele (also Gov. St Helena Chief Agriculture and NR St Helena
covered G. Benjamin) Officer
Prof. Elizabeth University of the West Indies, Professor of Environmental Caribbean
Thomas-Hope Jamaica Management
Alan Tollervey DFID OTU Head of Unit UK, UK OTs
Ken Tough Unsolicited response Private citizen Montserrat
Dr Ulric (Neville) Caribbean Planning for CPACC Director Caribbean
Trotz Adaptation to Global Climate
Change Project, Barbados
Ms Alessandra UNEP, Jamaica ? Caribbean
Vanzella-Khouri
David Warrilow DETR (believed now moved) (was) Head of Science Policy UK

44
 Name Affiliation Job / Role Country / Region

Richard Warwick University of Auckland Climate Change Specialist New Zealand

Mr Peter Weisel USAID Caribbean
Karen Wolstenholme BHC, New Zealand (faxed Deputy Governor Pitcairn Islands
response)
Keith Wood DFID Economic Adviser UK
Nancy Woodfield BVI National Parks Trust ? BVI
Alistair Woodward London School of Hygiene Visiting Professor, Department UK
and Tropical Medicine of Epidemiology and Population
Health

45
 Annex III

Summary of Stakeholder Response Key Points, by Question Area, by Island

46
 Perceptions Threats Threatened Sectors / Managing Change On-going Work / Comments
From / To Time Scales Knowledge Gaps
Questions à | 1, 2 3, 4 5 6, 7, 8, 9 10, 11 12
Island (Area) / |
Theme / |
Number of replies V

Global / UK >
UK - Conservation / Conservation SLR, SSTR / Reefs Ecotourism Global NGOs well Little work at local scale Opinions from OT
2 specialists very (bleaching), Biodiv., informed, Island Govs. / 1998 Coral kills not Conservation Trust and
concerned Threatens globally Not well informed and followed by research, WCMC
important habitats, local NGOs lack power Mitigation & Adaptation
Cloud Forests not addressed by Govs.
Global / Climate / 1 Much concern SLR, SSTR, Coastal settlements, Need to increase coherence Much work re. patterns “We don’t make
Temperature, Rainfall Water supply in institutions (reduce of CC and impacts / How decisions we do
/ fragmentation) does ‘adaptation’ work in research”
practice?
UK, FCO / 1 Very concerned CC generally, SSTR, Tourism, Fisheries Govs. Have little capacity / OTs could be an asset Opinion of FCO EPD
Storms / (Vulnerable) to respond (natural laboratory for Biodiv. Team leader:
Island Ecosystems, key research) and should UNFCCC include
esp. Reefs priority. Local Govs. OTs?
Need briefing and
information
UK, DFID (relevant Most concern over SLR, SSTR, Storm Tourism, Health, Lack of capacity in local DFID aiming to help Training needed locally
to Caribbean acute disasters Freq., Floods / Coral Water Supply, government and NGOs to develop local capacity by to raise env. profile and
UK OTs) / 3 (floods, storms) kills (bleaching) Sanitation, consider env. or plan long inst. strengthening profile and provide basic
Infrastructure term information on science
and impacts

Wider Caribbean >

Anguilla / 3 Little local concern, Storms, SLR, Tourism, Financial No Environment Ministry Surveys Dept: - Beach One is a private citizen,
No public awareness Drought / Services, Agriculture, Poor Disaster Preparedness Erosion Studies / ‘Climate Change’ could
Marine Env., Fisheries Decisions not based on Education, Public become a convenient
Beaches, Water Informed Opinion Awareness, Links excuse for inaction
Supply between storms and CC
Montserrat / 2 CC not an issue (Eruptions) Tourism, Agriculture Min. of Ag. has little Need quantitative One is a private citizen
(eruptions), economic Storms, Drought capacity predictions of coastal
outlook is the issue inundation

47
 Perceptions Threats Threatened Sectors / Managing Change On-going Work / Comments
From / To Time Scales Knowledge Gaps
Questions à | 1, 2 3, 4 5 6, 7, 8, 9 10, 11 12
Island (Area) / |
Theme / |
Number of replies V

Turks and Caicos / 2 CC not seen as an SLR, SSTR, Storms, Tourism, No adaptive strategies in Some regional initiatives DFID comment: TCI
immediate threat. Floods / Beaches, Infrastructure place. Gov. decision- (e.g. UNEP - CPACC) lacks env. inventory
No Gov. concern. Marine Env., Reefs (Construction), makers unaware of Both Gov. and public
No public concern (from polluted run Fisheries, Water potential CC impacts awareness campaigns
(lack of information) off) Supply, SD needed

Barbados / 1 Some public concern No information Tourism, Agriculture No information No information No comment
> limit to economic
growth
Cayman Islands / 1 Some concern, little SLR, Storms / Tourism, No National Plan to Research on mangrove
public awareness mangroves, dry forest Infrastructure combat CC sequestration of CO2
(except re. storms) biodiv., erosion, (Construction) needed (Post-Kyoto)
buildings
BVI / 2 Some concern Storm Freq. and Tourism, Fishing, Office of Disaster Island Resources Research now needed on
storm surges, SLR, Aquaculture, Preparedness is active. CC Foundation with CPACC Mitigation (preventing
SSTR/ coastline Infrastructure could stimulate better worst effects of CC) and
ecosystems, reefs, (Construction) planning for SD restoring env. services
mangroves

South Atlantic >

St Helena / 3 Low priority for Rainfall Variations, Fisheries, Water No Gov. knowledge. Not Hopes for link to Need to strengthen local
government Storms, SSTR, SLR / Supply, Health, in Gov. decision-making. international initiatives institutional capacity.
No general (public) Water Shortages, Agriculture, Access No adaptive strategies in through UNFCCC / No Monthly or Seasonal
concern Disease, Pests, Rare place. Little local gov. or available information on weather outlooks would
No local knowledge Species, Offshore NGO capacity. No local CC. Local Gov. and be useful as first step to
on possible local CC fish stocks, Algal funding populace have no raising awareness.
or impacts growths, Port Access knowledge on how CC Will St Helena need
might affect them desalination plant?
Tristan da Cunha / Not much awareness SSTR, rainfall Fisheries (lobster) à Little local capacity for None / Training Research of possible
1 variations / Water whole economy, adaptation (technical support) and effects on fishing
shortages Water Supply education needed. needed.

48
 Perceptions Threats Threatened Sectors / Managing Change On-going Work / Comments
From / To Time Scales Knowledge Gaps
Questions à | 1, 2 3, 4 5 6, 7, 8, 9 10, 11 12
Island (Area) / |
Theme / |
Number of replies V
Pacific Ocean >
Pitcairn / 1 CC not currently a Rainfall variation, Agriculture, Access ? Not relevant (governed None. N.B. Have sought
local concern drought, Temp. / SLR would affect from New Zealand) Deputy Gov. raised issues clarification from
Water supply two other islands in with islanders on most respondent (visiting
(rainfed) -> has been group. Viability of recent visit. Follow-up Pitcairn at present) -
island settlement obtained
a bar to development, done (see left)
crops

Indian Ocean
BIOT -Chagos No local population SLR, SSTR, Storm Fisheries (tuna Global effort on N.B. Responses are from
(UK respondents Freq. / Coral affected by SSTR) scientific basics but now reef experts
comments) (Bleaching), Reef need more research on
Ecology, Biodiversity reef recovery
(global resource) - mechanisms
Chagos max.
elevation only 2m

Annex III: Survey Responses by Island and Theme. In general the order of text in a table box indicates the priorities assigned to those items by the respondents.

Notes and short forms used:

Priorities of items listed. For example, respondents from St Helena stressed Rainfall and mentioned the other climate factors. Similarly, they stressed Fisheries and Water Supply
and mentioned Health, Agriculture and Access
Esp. = especially; ‘Storms’ = Tropical Storms and Hurricanes; Storm Freq. = risk of increased incidence of storms; SLR = Sea Level Rise; CC = Climate Change; SD = Sustainable
Development; SSTR = Sea Surface Temperature Rise; Inst. = Institutional; Biodiv. = Biodiversity; Temp. = Air Temperature; UNFCCC = United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change

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