13 October 2008 To: Interested Parties Fr: John Anzalone Re: Summary of Polling in Pennsylvania’s 4th Congressional District Less than a month

from the election, Congressman Jason Altmire is well positioned to secure a second term. Altmire has strong support measures of personal popularity and job approval and leads Republican nominee Melissa Hart by double digits, already receiving a majority of the vote. Altmire’s lead is likely to expand as Election Day approaches, as a greater percentage of undecided and persuadable voters are open to voting for Altmire than are open to voting for Hart. • Both Altmire and Hart are nearing universal name identification, but Altmire (62% Fav / 23% Unfav) is much more popular than Hart (50% Fav / 43% Unfav). Altmire’s personal popularity is nearly 3:1 while Hart struggles to reach a 1:1 ratio. Altmire’s job rating is equally impressive, again nearing a 3:1 positive ratio (63% Pos / 23% Neg). • Altmire’s impressive support measures translate into a clear 53% to 41% lead over Hart. Altmire leads with both men (49% Altmire / 46% Hart) and women (58% Altmire / 37% Hart), with a commanding 24-point lead with the crucial demographic of self-identified independents (58% Altmire / 34% Hart). • With Hart’s near-universal name ID and high negatives, Altmire is poised to extend his lead. A majority (55%) of voters who aren’t currently supporting Hart say there is “no chance at all” they will vote for her in November. Hart is already close to maxing out her vote, leaving Altmire well positioned to expand his already decisive 12-point lead.

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=500 telephone interviews with likely 2008 general election voters in Pennsylvania’s 4th Congressional District. Interviews were conducted between October 6-9, 2008 Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.

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