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Land Change Science

Land Change Science

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Land Change Science

Remote Sensing and Digital Image Processing
VOLUME 6 Series Editor: Freek D. van der Meer, Department of Earth Systems Analysis, International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Enschede, The Netherlands & Department of Geotechnology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Technical University Delft, The Netherlands Editorial Advisory Board: Michael Abrams, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, U.S.A. Paul Curran, Department of Geography, University of Southampton, U.K. Arnold Dekker, CSIRO, Land and Water Division, Canberra, Australia Steven M. de Jong, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, The Netherlands Michael Schaepman, Centre for Geo-Information, Wageningen UR, The Netherlands

The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume.

LAND CHANGE SCIENCE
Observing, Monitoring and Understanding Trajectories of Change on the Earth’s Surface
Edited by

GARIK GUTMAN
NASA Headquarters, Washington DC, U.S.A.

ANTHONY C. JANETOS
The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment, Washintgon DC, U.S.A.

CHRISTOPHER O. JUSTICE
University of Maryland, College Park, U.S.A.

EMILIO F. MORAN
Indiana University, Bloomington, U.S.A.

JOHN F. MUSTARD
Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, U.S.A.

RONALD R. RINDFUSS
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, U.S.A.

DAVID SKOLE
Michigan State University, Center for Global Change and Earth Observations and Department of Geography, East Lansing, U.S.A.

BILLY LEE TURNER II
Clark University, Graduate School of Geography, Worcester, Massachusetts, U.S.A. and

MARK A. COCHRANE
Michigan State University, Center for Global Change and Earth Observation and Department of Geography, East Lansing, U.S.A.

KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS
DORDRECHT / BOSTON / LONDON

A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.

ISBN 1-4020-2561-0 (HB) ISBN 1-4020-2562-9 (e-book)

Published by Kluwer Academic Publishers, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands. Sold and distributed in North, Central and South America by Kluwer Academic Publishers, 101 Philip Drive, Norwell, MA 02061, U.S.A. In all other countries, sold and distributed by Kluwer Academic Publishers, P.O. Box 322, 3300 AH Dordrecht, The Netherlands.

Technical Editing: LYNN H.J. HEDLUND University of Virginia, College of Arts & Sciences, Charlottesville, U.S.A. Cover Image: Change in the area of the Aral Sea (see also p. 258)

Printed on acid-free paper

All Rights Reserved © 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers and copyright holders as indicated on appropriate pages within. No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed in the Netherlands.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Editors: Abbreviated Profiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii List of Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi Foreword by Garik Gutman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxi

Section I
1.

LCLUC Concepts; National and International Programs

The Development of the International Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) Research Program and Its Links to NASA’s Land Cover and Land Use Change (LCLUC) Initiative Emilio F. Moran, David L. Skole, and B.L. Turner II . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

2. The NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change Program Garik Gutman, Christopher Justice, Ed Sheffner, and Tom Loveland . .. . . . . . . . 17 3. Meeting the Goals of GOFC: an Evaluation of Progress and Steps for the Future John R. Townshend, Christopher O. Justice, David L. Skole, Alan Belward, Anthony Janetos, Iwan Gunawan, Johan Goldammer, and Bryan Lee . . . . . . . . . 31

Section II Observations of LCLUC: Case Studies
Introduction – Observations of LCLUC in Regional Case Studies David L. Skole and Mark A. Cochrane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 4. Forest Change and Human Driving Forces in Central America Steven A. Sader, Rinku Roy Chowdhury, Laura C. Schneider, and B. L. Turner II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Pattern to Process in the Amazon Region: Measuring Forest Conversion, Regeneration and Degradation David L. Skole, Mark A. Cochrane, Eraldo A. T. Matricardi, Walter Chomentowski, Marcos Pedlowski, and Danielle Kimble . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Towards an Operational Forest Monitoring System for Central Africa Nadine T. Laporte, Tiffany S. Lin, Jacqueline Lemoigne, Didier Devers, and Miroslav Honzák . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Land Use and Land Cover Change in Southeast Asia Jay H. Samek, Do Xuan Lan, Chaowalit Silapathong, Charlie Navanagruha, Sharifah Masturah Syed Abdullah, Iwan Gunawan, Bobby Crisostomo, Flaviana Hilario, Hoang Minh Hien, David L. Skole, Walter Chomentowski, William A. Salas, and Hartanto Sanjaya . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

5.

6.

7.

vi
8. Northern Eurasia: Remote Sensing of Boreal Forests in Selected Regions Olga N. Krankina, Guoqing Sun, Herman H. Shugart, Vyacheslav Kharuk, Eric Kasischke, Kathleen M. Bergen, Jeffrey G. Masek, Warren B. Cohen, Doug R. Oetter, and Maureen V. Duane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Land Cover Disturbances and Feedbacks to the Climate System in Canada and Alaska A.D. McGuire, M. Apps, F.S. Chapin III, R. Dargaville, M.D. Flannigan, E. S. Kasischke, D. Kicklighter, J. Kimball, W. Kurz, D.J. McRae, K. McDonald, J. Melillo, R. Myneni,B.J. Stocks, D. L. Verbyla, and Q. Zhuang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139

9.

10. Mapping Desertification in Southern Africa Stephen D. Prince . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 11. Woodland Expansion in U.S. Grasslands: Assessing Land-Cover Change and Biogeochemical Impacts Carol A. Wessman, Steven Archer, Loretta C. Johnson, and Gregory P. Asner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 12. Arid Land Agriculture in Northeastern Syria: Will this be a tragedy of the commons? Frank Hole and Ronald Smith . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 13. Changes in Land Cover and Land Use in the Pearl River Delta, China Karen C. Seto, Curtis E. Woodcock, and Robert K. Kaufmann . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223

Section III

Cross Cutting Themes, Impacts and Consequences

14. The Effects of Land Use and Management on the Global Carbon Cycle R.A. Houghton, Fortunat Joos, and Gregory P. Asner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237 15. Land Use and Hydrology John F. Mustard and Thomas R. Fisher . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 16. Land Use Change and Biodiversity: A Synthesis of Rates and Consequences during the Period of Satellite Imagery Andrew J. Hansen, Ruth S. DeFries, and Woody Turner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277 17. Land Use and Climate Gordon B. Bonan, Ruth S. DeFries, Michael T. Coe, and Dennis S. Ojima . . . . 301

vii
18. Urbanization Christopher D. Elvidge, Paul C. Sutton, Thomas W. Wagner, Rhonda Ryzner, James E. Vogelmann, Scott J. Goetz, Andrew J. Smith, Claire Jantz, Karen C. Seto, Marc L. Imhoff, Y. Q. Wang, Cristina Milesi and Ramakrishna Nemani . . 315 19. Land Use and Fires I. Csiszar, C.O. Justice, A.D. McGuire, M.A. Cochrane, D.P. Roy, F. Brown, S.G. Conard, P.G.H. Frost, L. Giglio, C. Elvidge, M.D. Flannigan, E. Kasischke, D. J. McRae, T.S. Rupp, B.J. Stocks, and D.L. Verbyla. . . . . . . . 329 20. Land Cover / Use and Population Ronald R. Rindfuss, B. L. Turner II, Barbara Entwisle, and Stephen J. Walsh

351

Section IV

Methodological Issues, Modeling

21. Trends in Land Cover Mapping and Monitoring Curtis E. Woodcock and Mutlu Ozdogan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367 22. Linking Pixels and People Ronald R. Rindfuss, Stephen J. Walsh, B. L. Turner II, Emilio F. Moran, and Barbara Entwisle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379 23. Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Daniel G. Brown, Robert Walker, Steven Manson, and Karen Seto . . . . . . . . . . 395

Section V

Synthesis and Lessons: Biophysical Change and Beyond

24. Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Pathways and Impacts John F. Mustard, Ruth S. DeFries, Tom Fisher, and Emilio Moran . . . . . . . . . . 411 25. Integrated Land-Change Science and Its Relevance to the Human Sciences B. L. Turner II, Emilio Moran, and Ronald Rindfuss . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 431 26. Research Directions in Land-Cover and Land-Use Change Anthony C. Janetos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 449 CD-ROM – Index of color images . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459

viii

EDITORS: Abbreviated Profiles Garik Gutman is the Manager of the NASA Land-Cover/Land-Use Change Program at NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise. Prior to his NASA managerial position, his 14-years of research at NOAA included developing advanced algorithms for deriving land surface characteristics. His research interests include the use of remote sensing for detecting changes in land cover and land use, and analyzing the impacts of these changes on climate and environment. His NASA research program is helping develop the underpinning science for land cover and land use change and promotes scientific international cooperation through supporting the development of regional science networks over the globe. Anthony Janetos is the Vice President of the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment. Previously, he served as Vice President for Science and Research at the World Resources Institute, and Senior Scientist for the Land-Cover and Land-Use Change Program in NASA’s Office of Earth Science. He also was Program Scientist for NASA’s Landsat 7 mission. Dr. Janetos has many years of experience in managing scientific and policy research programs on a variety of ecological and environmental topics, including air pollution effects on forests, climate change impacts, land-use change, ecosystem modeling, and the global carbon cycle. He was a co-chair of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change and an author of the IPCC Special Report on Land-Use Change and Forestry and the Global Biodiversity Assessment. Most recently he has served on National Research Council Committees on Funding Scientific Research at the Smithsonian Institution and Reviewing the Bush Administration’s Climate Change Science Strategic Plan. Christopher O. Justice received his PhD from the University of Reading, UK. He undertook Postdoctoral Fellowships with the NRC at NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center and with the European Space Agency at ESRIN, Frascati. He joined the University of Maryland and became a visiting scientist at the Goddard Spaceflight Center where he participated in the early development of moderate resolution remote sensing with the GIMMS group. He took a position as Research Professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia and in 2001 accepted a position in the Geography Department, University of Maryland as Professor and Research Director. He is the Program Scientist for the NASA’s Land Cover and Land Use Change Program, a team member and land discipline leader of the NASA Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Science Team and is responsible for the MODIS Fire Product and the MODIS Rapid Response System. He is a member of the NASA NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) Science Team. He has been instrumental in the development the new Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) element of the USGCRP and is co-chair of the GOFC/GOLD-Fire Implementation Team, a project of the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS).

a Steering Committee member for the IGBP Data and Information Systems project.edu/~act. Land Use and Land Cover Change Programme is a joint core project of IGBP (The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme) and IHDP (The International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change). Skole is the Chairman of the IGBP/IHDP Core Project on Land Use and Cover Change. He has served on several NASA committees and panels for EOS and its data system and other programs. as well as a member of the Standing Committees of the IGBP and IHDP. Moran is the Director of Anthropological Center for Training and Research on Global Environmental Change. He is currently working on projects in Yucatan. Skole is the PI on the NASA funded Center of Excellence in the Applications of Remote Sensing at Michigan State University. Ronald R. He is Co-Chair for THE LAND Project. Population and Environmental Change. and Regional Editor for the Americas of the journal Land Degradation and Development. www. IGBP phase II. Chapel Hill. Clark University. LUCC. He is a member of the Landsat 7 Science Team. He is Principal Investigator of a NASA ESIP center. and Adjunct Professor of Geography at Indiana University. John F. MA USA.ix Emilio F. Mexico. www. University of North Carolina. and central Massachusetts. His research interests include fertility.indiana. Dr. He is also the Leader. IN USA. Bloomington.indiana. Mustard is an Associate Professor in the Department of Geological Sciences and the Center for Environmental Studies at Brown University. Focus 1. He is currently the High Resolution Design Team Leader for the CEOS project on Global Observations of Forest Cover. Currently he is involved in research projects focused on understanding the interannual variation in deforestation rates. Worcester. Moran is the Rudy Professor of Anthropology. Dr. He is PI for the NASA Landsat Pathfinder Project and the PI on a number of other funded research projects including the Large Scale Amazon Basin Experiment. His research interests include land surface dynamics and the relationship to physical and anthropogenic drivers. and the social and ecological controls on its variation over time. a research program focused on environmental research using remote sensing systems. with an emphasis on ecosystem interactions to change in water quality and quantity in arid and semi-arid regions. USA. www. Skole's research interests focus on the role humans play in changing land cover throughout the world. . L. Dr. Graduate School of Geography and George Perkins Marsh Institute. Rindfuss is a Professor in the Department of Sociology and a Fellow at the Carolina Population Center. and is a PI with the Canadian Radarsat program and the Japanese JERS program.cipec. Professor of Environmental Sciences. Norway. Turner II is the Higgins Professor of Environment and Society. He is currently working on projects in Thailand. Japan and the United States. B. Dr. Co-Director of Center for the Study of Institutions. His research interests are human-environment relationships.edu/~act/focus1. especially landchange science.org. aspects of the life course and population and the environment. David Skole is currently the director of the Basic Science and Remote Sensing Initiative.

His publications encompass papers on fire and deforestation in Amazonian forests. Environmental Engineering Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is currently a researcher and supervisor for projects using remote sensing to investigate land-use and land-cover change in tropical and temperate regions.g. logging an fire) on forest ecosystems. Cochrane received his PhD Ecology from The Pennsylvania State University. .B. and the future of the Brazilian Amazon. Additionally he is working on the ecological effect of disturbance (e. and his S.x Mark A.

Department of Biology and Wildlife. P.stanford. Victoria. USA gasner@globalecology. V8Z 1M5 Canada STEVEN ARCHER University of Arizona. Box 210043.O.915-900. School of Natural Resources and Environment. APPS Canadian Forest Service. Alaska. 260 Panama Street. ASNER Carnegie Institution of Washington. Arizona 85721-0043. California 94305. School of Natural Resources and Environment. University. USA terry.belward@jrc. Ann Arbor. Boulder. UFAC/WHRC Setor do Estudos do Uso da Terra e Mudanças Globais – SETEM Parque Zoobotanico Acre 69. danbrown@umich. Ann Arbor.edu WALTER CHOMENTOWSKI Michigan State University. BROWN University of Michigan. P.. USA DANIEL G.O. 99775. MI 48109-1115. BERGEN The University of Michigan. Brazil F. STUART CHAPIN III University of Alaska Fairbanks. USA GORDON B. 506 West Burnside Road. Pacific Forestry Centre. Department of Global Ecology. Italy alan. 430 E. 325 Biological Sciences East Bldg. USA . BROWN Universidade Federal do Acre Rio Branco. Fairbanks. MI 4882. Box 3000. Tucson. USA. British Columbia. School of Renewable Natural Resources. MA 01610. Graduate School of Geography and Marsh Institute. I-21020. Global Vegetation Monitoring Unit.LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS M. Joint Research Center-TP261. Institute of Arctic Biology. Ispra.edu F. CO 80307.edu ALAN BELWARD Space Applications Institute. MI 48109.it KATHLEEN M. Center for Global Change and Earth Observations. USA RINKU ROY CHOWDHURY Clark University. East Lansing. BONAN National Center for Atmospheric Research .chapin@uaf. Stanford. USA GREGORY P. Worchester.

DARGAVILLE Laboratiore des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE) CEA/CNRS. USA S. Harrison Road. France RUTH S. WI 53726. College Park. Department of Forest Science. CONARD USDA Forest Service. USA R. Chapel Hill. DUANE Oregon State University.gov BARBARA ENTWISLE University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Manila. 202 Richardson Hall. 2181 LeFrak Hall.elvidge@noaa. Gaylord Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies. Room 101. Corvallis. MI 48823-5243. USA CHRISTOPHER D. 1601 North Kent Street. USA. 3200 SW Jefferson Way. 1710 University Ave. ELVIDGE NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. National Mapping and Resource Information Authority. PNW Research Station. Paris. COHEN USDA Forest Service.. CSISZAR University of Maryland. College Park. 2181 LeFrak Hall. Colorado 80303. chris. 325 Broadway. OR 97331-5752. VA 22209 USA BOBBY CRISOSTOMO Database Management Division. Madison. Arlington. College Park. Boulder. USA MICHAEL T. OR 97331. MD 20742. MD 20742 USA MAUREEN V. East Lansing.xii MARK A. Department of Geography and Earth Systems Science Interdisciplinary Center. MD 20742. Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment. Department of Geography. Department of Geography. Philippines I.Computer and Space Sciences Building and Department of Geography.G. USA WARREN B. COCHRANE Michigan State University. Center for Global Change and Earth Observations. USA . 1405 S. NC 27599. COE University of Wisconsin-Madison. USA DIDIER DEVERS University of Maryland. 2181 Lefrak Hall. Corvallis. DEFRIES University of Maryland.

2181 LeFrak Hall. Germany johann. Cambridge. USA . Hanoi. Bogor. Anthropology. Box MP 167. Giglio Science Systems and Applications.D. Zimbabwe L. Sault Ste. CT 06520. Frost University of Zimbabwe.. Department of Geography. DC 20546.O. Ontario. Standing Office of the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control. MD 21613. Washington. 300 E Street. MT 59717. GOETZ University of Maryland. Marie.H. 1219 Queen Street East. ASEAN Secretariat. c/o University of Freiburg. Mount Pleasant. USA M. FISHER University of Maryland. USA HOANG MINH HIEN Disaster Management Center. College Park. Jakarta Indonesia GARIK GUTMAN NASA Headquarters.goldammer@fire. Ecology Department. Philippine Atmospheric. Center for Environmental Science.gov ANDREW J. P.nasa.de IWAN GUNAWAN Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT). Biochemistry Department. 79110 Freiberg. P6A 2E5 Canada P. USA ggutman@hq. NASA/GSFC. Bozeman. Inc. USA JOHANN GEORG GOLDAMMER Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC). FLANNIGAN Canadian Forest Service. Horn Point Laboratory. New Haven.uni-freiburg. Quezon City. Vietnam FLAVIANA HILARIO Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch. George Koehler Allee 75. Indonesia and Bureau of Programme Coordination and External Relations.G. Harare. Max Planck Institute for Chemistry. Institute of Environmental Studies. SW. Great Lakes Forestry Centre. MD 20742. HANSEN Montana State University. Philippines FRANK HOLE Yale University.xiii THOMAS R. MD 20771 SCOTT J. Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. Code 923 Greenbelt.

College Park. MD 20742 USA ERIC S.org MARC L. John Heinz III Center for Science. Woods Hole. Kansas 66506. KICKLIGHTER The Ecosystems Center. Washington. MA 02543. Physics Institute. College Park. JANETOS The H. Department of Geography. Department of Geography.xiv MIROSLAV HONZÁK Conservation International. Sukachev Institute of Forest. Suite 735 South Washington.. KASISCHKE University of Maryland. DC 20036 USA R. Switzerland joos@climate. IMHOFF NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Woods Hole. Economics and the Environment. USA . USA FORTUNAT JOOS University of Bern. Department of Geography & Center for Environmental Science and Policy. Division of Biology. MA. CH-3012 Bern. 2181 LeFrak Hall.ch CHRISTOPHER O. USA ROBERT K. HOUGHTON Woods Hole Research Center. USA VYACHESLAV KHARUK Forest Biophysics Lab. College Park. 2181 LeFrak Hall. 2181 LeFrak Hall.A. Sidlerstr. 1919 M Street. Ackert Hall Rm 232.V. USA rhoughton@whrc. MD 20742. Boston. Manhattan. Marine Biological Lab. DC 20004. Maryland USA ANTHONY C. MA. JUSTICE University of Maryland. Department of Geography.unibe. JOHNSON Kansas State University. NW. KAUFMANN Boston University.org CLAIRE JANTZ University of Maryland. USA janetos@heinzctr. NW. MD 20742. 1001 Pennsylvania Ave. Greenbelt. Krasnoyarsk. 660036 Russia D. Academgorodok. 5. N. Climate and Environmental Physics. USA LORETTA C.

Malaysia ERALDO A. OR 97331-5752. Greenbelt. KIMBALL University of Montana. P. Box 296. Code 923. KURZ Canadian Forest Service. Corvallis. USA DANIELLE KIMBLE Michigan State University.O. Pacific Forestry Centre. MATRICARDI Michigan State University. Greenbelt. USA OLGA N. Vietnam NADINE T. Universiti Kebansaan Malaysia. MN 55455. Hanoi. Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Development. MT. Flathead Lake Biological Station. Code 935. Woods Hole. LIN The Woods Hole Research Center. Woods Hole. British Columbia. Center for Global Change and Earth Observations. Department of Forest Science. Building 28. Canada DO XUAN LAN Forest Inventory and Planning Institute. Box 296. MD 20771 USA TIFFANY S. MI 4882. Canada JACQUELINE LEMOIGNE NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.O. T. LAPORTE The Woods Hole Research Center. USA SHARIFAH MASTURAH SYED ABDULLAH Earth Observation Centre. SD.xv J. MD 20771. KRANKINA Oregon State University. MASEK NASA GSFC. Department of Geography. East Lansing. Sioux Falls. MA 02543 USA TOM LOVELAND USGS Eros Data Center. Applied Information Sciences Branch. USA STEVEN MANSON University of Minnesota. USA . Selangor.East Lansing. MA 02543 USA BRYAN LEE Canadian Forest Service. Edmonton. Minneapolis. 202 Richardson Hall. P. Center for Global Change and Earth Observations. Victoria. USA W. Missoula. USA JEFFREY G. MI 4882.

U. USA DOUG R. Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory. MYNENI Boston University. Thailand RAMAKRISHNA NEMANI University of Montana. USA EMILIO F. Ontario. NESB. MA. MUSTARD Brown University. USA . MA. Great Lakes Forestry Centre. RI 02912. Providence. USA DENNIS S. IN 47405-7710. Marine Biological Lab. AK 99775 USA J.xvi D. CA. 1219 Queen Street East. Department of Geography. OJIMA Colorado State University. 701 E. MORAN Indiana University. MA 02215. Department of Geography. Box 1846. Missoula. Kirkwood Ave.J. 214 Irving I. Department of Geological Sciences. Department of History and Geography. Woods Hole.D. MCDONALD NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. P6A 2E5 Canada K.. McGuire University of Alaska Fairbanks. MCRAE Canadian Forest Service. Fort Collins. Anthropological Center for Training and Research on Global Environmental Change.edu JOHN F. CO 80523. Student Building 331. Fairbanks.S. USA CRISTINA MILESI University of Montana. Boston. Boston. Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit. GA 31061-0490. Sault Ste. MELILLO The Ecosystems Center. Pasadena. USA CHARLIE NAVANAGRUHA Mahidol University. USA R. USA moran@indiana. Bangkok. USA MUTLU OZDOGAN Boston University. 675 Commonwealth Ave. Montana. B229. Montana. ACT. Milledgeville. OETTER Georgia College & State University. Marie.. Geological Survey. Missoula. Bloomington. USA A.

Box 757140 Fairbanks. PRINCE University of Maryland. RINDFUSS University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. SCHNEIDER Clark University. 300 E Street. USA RONALD R. Brazil STEPHEN D. DC 20546. USA ED SHEFFNER NASA Headquarters. College Park. Stanford. SAMEK Michigan State University.edu D. Indonesia LAURA C. Graduate School of Geography and Marsh Institute. Greenbelt. NH. Boston. AK 99775. and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Department of Forest Management. MA 01610. SALAS Applied Geosolutions. East Lansing.xvii MARCOS PEDLOWSKI Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense. Washington. P. School of Agriculture and Land Resource Management. RUPP University of Alaska Fairbanks. USA STEVEN A. NC 27599-3210. Department of Geography. Department of Sociology. USA . MD 20771 USA T. ME 04469-5755. MA. Jakarta. MI 4882.P. Campus Box 3210. LLC. MD 20742-8225. LeFrak Hall. USA WILLIAM A. Orono. USA ron_rindfuss@unc. SETO Stanford University. Code 922. Chapel Hill.O. Center for Global Change and Earth Observations. USA HARTANTO SANJAYA Agency for Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT). SW. Center for Environmental Science and Policy. Room 2181. Worchester. ROY University of Maryland. USA RHONDA RYZNER Tufts University. Hamilton Hall. College Park. SADER University of Maine. USA KAREN C. Rio de Janeiro. USA JAY H. Geography Department. CA 94305-6055. Durham.S. Institute for International Studies.

Ontario. TURNER II Clark University. MD 20742. STOCKS Canadian Forest Service. USGS Eros Data Center. Department of Environmental Sciences. SHUGART University of Virginia. USA CHAOWALIT SILAPATHONG Geo-Informatics And Space Technology Development Agency. L. AK 99775. VERBYLA University of Alaska Fairbanks. Thailand DAVID L. VOGELMANN SAIC. Colorado USA JOHN R. Box 757140 Fairbanks. Washington. Sault Ste.L. Department of Geography.218 Manly Miles Building. 2181 LeFrak Hall.edu WOODY TURNER NASA Office of Earth Science.O. Great Lakes Forestry Centre. South Dakota. Virginia 22904. Denver. College Park. P. USA PAUL C. USA JAMES E. 1219 Queen Street East. SUTTON University of Denver. USA . New Haven. School of Agriculture and Land Resource Management. MI 48823. NASA GSFC. USA B. USA bturner@clarku. SMITH University of Maryland. Bangkok. Marie. TOWNSHEND University of Maryland. MD 20742 USA B. MA 01610. Center for Global Change and Earth Observations. P6A 2E5 Canada GUOQING SUN University of Maryland.xviii HERMAN H. MD 20771. Graduate School of Geography & George Perkins Marsh Institute.J. USA D. Sioux Falls. Department of Geography. Department of Geography. 2181 LeFrak Hall. Box 400123. USA ANDREW J. Geology & Geophysics. Mail Code YS. Charlottesville. DC 20546. Worcester. Department of Geography. SKOLE Michigan State University. East Lansing. Biospheric Sciences Branch Greenbelt. CT 06520. College Park. USA RONALD SMITH Yale University.

Colorado 80309-0216. WANG University of Rhode Island. East Lansing. RI 02881. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences & Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. USA . CIRES 216 UCB. WAGNER University of Michigan. USA CURTIS E. 675 Commonwealth Ave. Chapel Hill. WESSMAN University of Colorado. MI 48824. Boulder. NC 27599. WOODCOCK Boston University. Ann Arbor. Department of Natural Resources. China Data Center. Kingston.xix THOMAS W. USA Q. Marine Biological Lab. Woods Hole.Q. WALSH University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. ZHUANG The Ecosystems Center. USA CAROL A. Michigan USA ROBERT WALKER Michigan State University.. MA 02215. Boston. USA STEPHEN J. USA Y. Department of Geography. MA. Department of Geography & Center for Remote Sensing.

remote sensing scientists) and social scientists (e.FOREWORD Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LULCC) research has become an important element of global change research programs at national as well as international levels. Methodological issues and LULCC modeling are described in Section IV. population. hydrologists). During the past 8 years NASA has supported several dozen projects devoted to the topic of land-cover and land-use change. Finally. Terrestrial Hydrology. and land resources. and in modeling the dynamic process of land-use and land-cover change. The book will be of interest to those involved in studying changes in land cover. It has grown into a large. young scientists or students.g. Recently. Section III is devoted to cross-cutting themes and consequences of changes in land cover and land use on carbon and water cycles. The volume comprises five Sections. Section I describes major LULCC concepts and recent developments under the NASA LCLUC Program and other programs at both national and international levels. human geographers. Water Cycle. representative field-based process studies and modeling. linked to other NASA programs. multifaceted. be it senior scientists.it has made important contributions to methods on land-cover change detection and classification. Because LULCC breaks new ground in interdisciplinary research and the emergence of a new research paradigm -. their impacts on climate and environment and lessons learned. an analysis of their causes. on linking people and pixels. Results of the case studies in various geographic regions are examined in Section II. It requires an alliance of physical scientists (e. The NASA Land-Cover/Land-Use Change (LCLUC) Program started as a combination of regional satellite-based studies. economists. LULCC science is truly interdisciplinary. ecologists. It represents a compilation of state-of-the-art research results devoted to changes in land cover. methods for their detection. climate. geographers. Carbon Cycle. fire. biodiversity. anthropologists). climatologists. urbanization. on projects that comprised the first phase of the program (1996-2001). This volume is prepared by scientists from different backgrounds that have teamed up in a joint effort to write the chapters and bring into one manuscript the major recent advances in LCLUC science. Section V is an attempt to synthesize the accumulated knowledge of the lessons learned. demographers. on the synergistic use of optical and radar satellite data. such as Terrestrial Ecology. interdisciplinary science program. LULCC was established as a separate element of the United States Climate Change Science Program and is currently being further developed by a US interagency effort. their monitoring.g. This book is a collection of papers based on the projects conducted under the NASA LCLUC program during recent years with an emphasis and land use. and Applications.Integrated Land-Change Science -. Ocean Biology. Garik Gutman .

To be sure. Printed in the Netherlands. and kind with the advent of the industrial revolution (Turner et al. serve as guiding examples and are by no means exhaustive. 1997. Meyer 1996. Clark et al. 2003). 1994. MA 01610 1 1 Introduction The study of land-use and land-cover change has a long history dating to ancient times. 1 G. The human imprint on many “natural” conditions and processes is so large that separating the natural from the human not only proves difficult but analytically questionable. SKOLE2. Turner. Redman 1999). MORAN1. especially in regard to terrestrial processes (Vitousek et al. Worcester. 2001. 2003). TURNER II3 Indiana University. is tightly linked to population and its standards of consumption. MI 48823 3 Clark University. The sources of this demand and the location of production to meet it are not necessarily spatially congruent. L. a theme that has resurfaced at various times (Marsh 1864. Bloomington. It is unquestionable that human populations have affected the structure and function of the earth system since their evolution as a distinct modern species (Thomas 1956. East Lansing. (Glacken 1967)1 Early concern focused on how human activities transformed and degraded landscapes. . DAVID L.. therefore. and large regional differences in access to land and land-based resources exist... © 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.. B. Graduate School of Geography & George Perkins Marsh Institute. It is precisely these kinds of disconnects and discrepancies in land change and its 1 The literatures documenting our observations of the history of human-environment relationships is very large and its full account beyond the confines of this volume. Steffen et al. Steffen et al.. Thomas 1956. Gutman et al. Anthropological Center for Training and Research on Global Environmental Change. Moran 2000) and currently is embedded within the larger concept of global environmental change and earth system science. 1990. especially deforestation (Watson et al. and this linkage interacts with socio-political and cultural structures to create pressure on land users to produce more goods and services to meet human demands. 1–15. The few references selected. 2002). 2001). Energy use. Center for Global Change and Earth Observations. Williams 2003). Human-induced changes in the terrestrial surface of the earth have been substantial. and is superceded by fossil fuel consumption in regard to atmospheric warming (Steffen et al. and they have affected the delivery of ecosystem services and contributed to altered biogeochemical cycles that control the functioning of the earth system (Steffen et al. (eds. land-cover and land-use change is only one component of global environmental changes currently underway. 2003).).. but this impact increased in pace. magnitude. Land Change Science.CHAPTER 1 THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL LAND-USE AND LANDCOVER CHANGE (LUCC) RESEARCH PROGRAM AND ITS LINKS TO NASA’S LAND-COVER AND LAND-USE CHANGE (LCLUC) INITIATIVE EMILIO F. IN 47405 2 Michigan State University. especially that part addressing land-use and land-cover change (Meyer and Turner. however..

including phenology. 2002). forest. and the emergence of sustainability science (Kates et al. cropping. Goodale et al. In general. land cover and land use are so intimately linked that understanding of either requires a coupled human-environment system analysis. Raven 2002) in which land change plays a critical. if not fundamental role. and grasslands. the reach of global environmental change research subsequently expanded to include a broad array of human-induced changes in structure and function of the earth system. 2003). and significant portions of it are actively managed. Global scale datasets from coarse resolution sensors were making it possible to monitor and measure changes in land cover... Daily et al. with strong policy implications (Turner et al. grassland). After all. 1983). 2 The Development of Contemporary Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Science The science of global environmental change has.. 1981.. Land cover refers to the land’s physical attributes (e. 1983. 2001. This role in the carbon cycle turned research interests in land change towards the human alteration and conversion of landscapes. Houghton et al. Recent evidence points to the importance of regional-to-local climate change as driven by land change (Kalnay and Cai. At the same time.. Research quickly identified land-use and land-cover changes as a major element of the global carbon cycle. ranching).. 2001. 1985. SKOLE AND TURNER various consequences that require an understanding of land-use and land-cover change in which its global and local-regional dimensions are connected. use of satellite imagery for fine-resolution analysis increases the need for detailed ground-based land-use information. although it requires interpretation and ground-truthing. Woodwell et al..g.2 MORAN. In addition. both as source and sink (Moore et al. 2003) adds yet another strong interest in land change.. whereas land use expresses the purpose to which those attributes are put or how they are transformed by human action (e. the entire terrestrial surface of the earth is claimed by someone. Sellers et al. As this volume demonstrates... attempts to balance the carbon cycle identified land cover as a candidate for helping explain the so-called missing carbon sink.g. and other dynamic properties (Justice et al. net primary production (NPP). 2003). Clark et al.. Regardless... With these questions as points of departure. agricultural lands. 2000. Tucker et al. including ecosystems and their services and biodiversity (Lubchenco 1998.. 1994. which increased or reduced carbon in the atmosphere. and to a more limited extent to assess dynamics of land use change . arguably. 1985. been responsible for the discovery of the rapid and large-scale accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere and the concern that this process will trigger global climate changes whose consequences could threaten the planet.. 1994). This understanding requires linkages between the biophysical and human dimensions of land cover and land use. there were significant advances in the use of earth observation data and information to support the science of global change and sustainability. with recent evidence pointing to such land changes as the regeneration of forests on abandoned agricultural lands as well as changes in ecosystem production due to longer growing seasons and fertilization by CO2 and nitrogen (Schimel et al. Townshend et al. land cover is visible in remotely-sensed data from satellite platforms. Similar advances were made in the use of fine resolution earth observation data for quantification of land cover conversion rates. especially forests.

1993. subsequently renamed the International Council for Science but retaining the acronym. be they ecosystem or climate change. During this process the international human dimensions program became jointly sponsored by ISSC and the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU. and David Skole. Land change is now recognized as a topic of study in its own right. land-use and land-cover change has emerged as one of the key independent themes in the global change. 2003). social and remote sensing sciences seemed the best means of achieving integrated understanding of land change. exemplified in the NRC’s committee volume. Germany. and sustainability research programs. Each of these committees staked out a full range of human dimensions issues and potential research programs. Batistella et al.. A joint effort among the natural. 1993) and identified the broad course of research that it might pursue.. climate change. and remote sensinggeographical information sciences was most likely to pay off in the immediate future. 1991). social. This intellectual history of the science informs the programmatic or institutional history of land-use and land-cover change.. an effort to stake out this agenda was begun in 1989 by a committee of the Social Science Research Council (SSRC) whose deliberations and reports informed the U.S. Importantly. based originally in Geneva. and in modeling are evidence of significantly improved capability within the research community. Advances in large-area measurements from remote sensing. Skole et al. earth systems. chaired by Oran Young. Thus. retaining Turner and Skole in chair and co-chair capacities. A Core Project Planning Committee (CPPCIGBP)/Research Project Planning Committee (RPPC-HDP) was established to create a LUCC Science Plan to guide the work. This effort took place in concert with various national and international efforts to broaden global environmental change research beyond climate change per se and to develop a research agenda on the human dimensions of this change. Switzerland. With this backing the IGBP-ISSC’s working group recommended the creation of a core project on LUCC (Turner et al. currently based in Bonn. Global Change: Understanding the Human Dimensions (Stern et al. requiring a concerted and focused program to document and understand its causes and consequences. was difficult in the absence of a complementary understanding of land-use dynamics. 1996. increased sophistication of process-level analyses from case studies. National Research Council (NRC) and its then newly established Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change (HDGC). Turner II. each of these committees identified land-use and land-cover change as the top priority research topic wherein a joint effort between the natural. .1994. and which later became the IHDP. in turn. The institutional history of research programs devoted to land change begins with the recognition by natural and remote sensing scientists engaged with the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) that understanding land-cover dynamics... L. co-chair) to explore the possibility of creating a joint core project/research program at the international level to be shared between the two entities. At the same time. chair. required social science expertise as it involved assessing how people made decisions about land. The latter. In the U. With this in mind.. Harold Jacobson led an effort sponsored by the ISSC that resulted in the creation of an international Human Dimensions Program (HDP).S. Brondizio et al. the IGBP approached the International Social Science Council (ISSC) to put together a “working group” (B.DEVELOPMENT OF LUCC AND ITS LINK TO LCLUC 3 over continental sized areas and at watershed scales (Skole and Tucker.

social science. These planning and agenda-setting activities and the early research projects that were initiated by the research community helped to foster land-change funding programs within agencies and organizations worldwide. and NASA developed its own Land-Cover . the latter organization the sponsor of the IGBP. 1995) defined several major science questions which have been central to the joint core project during its tenure: How has land cover changed over the last 300 years as a result of human activities? What are the major human causes of land cover change in different geographical and historical contexts? How will changes in land use affect land cover in the next 50 to 100 years? How do immediate human and biophysical dynamics affect the sustainability of specific types of land uses? How might changes in climate and global biogeochemistry affect both land use and land cover? How do land uses and land covers affect the vulnerability of land users in the face of change and how do land cover changes in turn impinge upon and enhance vulnerable and at-risk regions? The LUCC project was formally inaugurated by a 1996 Open Science Meeting in Amsterdam.g. land cover dynamics. where it currently resides. START (Global Change System for Analysis. among others. hosted by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Sciences (Fresco et al. This tie facilitated a union of the IGBP and IHDP in supporting LUCC. 2001. in many cases cooperating with IAI (Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research). and IHDP. During this period LUCC joined the IGBP’s Global Change and the Terrestrial Ecosystem (GCTE) project in hosting a joint GCTE-LUCC international science conference in Barcelona in 1998. integrative regional and global modeling) galvanize and network land-change research worldwide and undertake synthesis activities (e. and remote sensing/GIS science communities to create an integrated science of land change and began a process of setting initial priorities for implementation of LUCC. 1999) and an enlargement of the project’s research objectives outlined in the earlier Science Plan. overseeing the formulation of a LUCC Implementation Plan (Lambin et al. In 2000 the IPO moved to Belgium with support from the Belgian Government... Parker et al.4 MORAN. The IPO and its three research foci offices (land use dynamics.. the CPPC/RPPC held meetings worldwide with different communities of researchers as well as maintaining linkages in the US with the NRC. The first LUCC scientific committee was chaired by David Skole and the International Project Office (IPO) was based at the Institut Cartogràfic de Catalunya in Barcelona. SKOLE AND TURNER ICSU). Geist and Lambin. land-use and land-cover change was identified as one of the Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences by the National Research Council (NRC 2001). APN (Asian-Pacific Network for Global Change Research). Lambin et al. and GCTE (global change in terrestrial ecosystems project). for example. Research and Training). 2002). To produce the science plan. 2002.. This well-attended meeting demonstrated the strong potential of natural science. Subsequently. Eric Lambin became the second chair of LUCC.. The LUCC Science Plan (Turner et al. 2001. the University of Louvain-le-Neuve. McConnell and Moran. 1997). In the United States of America.

this volume). 3. consistent measurements of land cover and its change with known accuracy.igbp. including NOAA and NSF. at the scale of regions or continents. integrated “Land Project” (see http://www. and parts of the IHDP into a new. Early in the development of a research agenda. and with the writing of the science plan for the next decade of the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). and the first phase results of these efforts are addressed in this volume.. 3 Insights Gained: Examples The land-change research community has made considerable progress during the formative stages of the formal international and national programs in question (Turner 2002). it was clear that data on rates of land-cover change were missing or inadequate to form a basis for more process-driven analysis. and land-change modeling. Indeed. Land-use and -cover change subsequently began to emerge in other programs. research fronts: monitoring and observing land-cover change. Beginning in 2002. an effort began to develop a new generation land-centric project that would merge various other programs of the IGBP.kva. using a system of coordinated ground station acquisitions and an international consensus effort to define processing and validation methods (Townshend et al. At the same time. the number and range of accomplishments are sufficiently large that we make no attempt to cover them in detail here and direct the reader to the in-depth treatment found in the various chapters on this volume which highlight NASA-LCLUC sponsored work in the context of the larger land-change community. A complementary challenge for land-use and -cover change analysis was in obtaining large-area observations. This convergence of interests is motivated by the goal of developing truly integrative research on coupled human-natural systems and producing policy-relevant research that will enhance sustainability and reduce vulnerability of land systems. not necessarily exclusive. The LUCC core project will continue through 2005. a global 1 km resolution land-cover dataset. 1999. fire. The last venture involved the efforts of David Skole (then Chair of LUCC) and Chris Justice (then IGBP-DIS Focus 1 leader) working with NASA officers.1 MONITORING AND OBSERVING LAND CHANGE Both the international programs and the agency programs in the US recognize the importance of observations. significant advances were being made with NASA-supported projects in the area of global land-cover datasets and high resolution regional land-cover change datasets (DeFries et al. 2000). especially those within GCTE. taking elements of its Science Plan from the international LUCC programs. and degradation. at the spatial resolution needed to measure fine scale changes associated with such phenomena as deforestation. land-use and land-cover dynamics. 1994). One of the critical challenges was obtaining global. Here we provide a brief overview made on three. The IGBP-DIS developed DISCover.se for details on the new IGBP phase II planning)..DEVELOPMENT OF LUCC AND ITS LINK TO LCLUC 5 and Land-Use Change research program (see details in Chapter 2. This precursor effort has led to further development of land cover monitoring using MODIS and other new . land-change science was incorporated explicitly as one of the major themes (see below).

Steininger et al.. the land-use and land-cover change community has made significant advances in moving beyond classification to direct parameterization and measurement of continuous fields (Qi et al. 1999b. Landsat is used in conjunction with fractional forest cover continuous fields analyses to measure and map forest degradation.. Land use and land cover change (in the tropics and elsewhere) arises by virtue of complex interactions.. 2001.2 LAND-USE AND LAND-COVER DYNAMICS Observation-based efforts fuel the data used for a large array of individual research activities that have made considerable advances in the techniques and analysis used to address land change and its impact on global change. While global measurement and monitoring has been the intended goal. and in selected case study sites (Skole and Tucker. 2002). Central and South Africa and Northern Eurasia. 2003) and fine resolution data provide information to assess human impacts (DeFries et al. selective logging and fire in the tropics (Cochrane et al. Nemani et al. which have important significance for carbon cycle studies. 2002) with their implications for operational land cover monitoring (Townshend and Justice.. Southeast Asia. The Landsat Pathfinder project focused on developing detailed measurements of rates of forest conversion in the tropics..6 MORAN. Cochrane 2001).. such as fire--an important proximate cause of land-cover change. Houghton et al. 2002. North America. Today. Goldewijk and Ramankutty. Moreover. 1999. policy and capacity building... A recent example is the complex relationship between deforestation. These initial efforts focused on rather straightforward classification schemes... 2003). The importance of a regional framework is demonstrated in the initiation of several important science projects and campaigns in Amazonia. 2000. In addition. 1999. with particular emphasis on drivers of land-use and -cover change. 2001). Coarse and moderate resolution data provide information for biophysical studies of net primary production and vegetation dynamics (Myneni et al. focusing on the interaction among multiple agents of land use/cover change. Nepstad et al. 2001. 2001. important high temporal frequency land-cover changes are also monitored globally. Hansen et al. both the NASA programs and the research community have recognized the important role of regional networks and regional assessments. The science is now identifying important components of these dynamics. the regional context provides a framework for developing detailed case studies which provide an analytical approach to linking the patterns to the processes of change. 2002). Justice et al. Tucker et al. but provided important early direct estimates of important global change parameters. Taylor et al. 1993. SKOLE AND TURNER sensors (Justice and Townshend. Goldewijk 2001. For example. work supported by the NASA LCLUC program produces fractional cover data and global percent tree cover datasets from AVHRR and MODIS. 3. it is possible to improve both calibration and validation of products.. Zhou et al. 2002. 2000).. These regional efforts have advanced the fundamental observations and science missions of the LCLUC programs and provided a framework for linking science to assessment.. The community is also backfilling the historical record using tabular datasets from reference sources on distribution of cropland and other land covers (Ramankutty and Foley. 2002. leads to unexpected . Through the development of networks of scientists in regions throughout the world. hence moving the observational capabilities beyond the early forest-non-forest classification.

1999a.. Skole and Tucker (1993) and Woodcock et al. and extent of forest cover change over large areas. Studies have shown how political and economic structures constrain individual choices about management of land resources (e. McConnell and Moran. primarily in dryland ecosystems (Asner et al.. Landscape fragmentation and land cover change interact synergistically to expose more of the forest to fire and consequently raise the risk of unintended fires occurring across the entire landscape (Veríssimo et al. Lambin and Ehrlich. 2002). Döös 2002). Turner et al. 2002).. Cultural traditions. the role of institutions in land-use decisions (e. observations are also revealing areas with increasing woody vegetation.. detection of cryptic deforestation and various stages of successional growth (Brondizio et al. Indrabudi et al. Batistella et al.. 2002. Fox et al. Cochrane 2001. Consider the range of anthropogenic disturbances in a tropical forest.. Examples include the role of different resolutions of analysis on outcomes (Lambin and Strahler. Other observation efforts reveal the dynamics of regeneration (Alves and Skole. McConnell 2002).g. 1999. in order to improve its understanding beyond the broad factors of demand for resources from increasing population and levels of consumption. Selective logging degrades forests.g. 2002. Seto et al. 1999b. From thinking that more people always meant less forest. Significant interest exists in understanding the drivers of land change. Significant headway has been made including the social causes of deforestation and arid land degradation (e. and various regional and sectoral studies (Lambin 1997. pattern. Moran and Brondizio.g.. Sierra and Stallings 1998. Robbins 1998. Nepstad et al. patterns through remote sensing are also making substantial contributions. (2001) advanced a technique for fine resolution observations of the rate. including the means of comparing different land classifications used in various studies (Gregorio and Jansen.. 1994. Ostrom et al.g.. 1997. Robbins 1998. Advances in understanding the fine-scale. but large-area. Laris 2002.. 1996. The role of communities and institutionalized rules of management plays a critical role in such cases.g.. Nepstad et al. An extensive collection of references to these works is found in the various chapters in this volume.. 2002).. Crews-Meyer 2001.g. Laris 2002). Walker et al. Lambin et al.. 2001) and in contrasting studies. Reynolds and Stafford Smith 2002.. 2001.. Rogan and Franklin. 2001. improved fire detection (Laris 2002. Walsh and Crews-Meyer. 2003). which includes agricultural deforestation. 2000. 2001). Moran et al. Turner et al. logging. Significant gains have also been made in how to link social with physical processes using remotely sensed data and in nesting data and studies from local to regional to global scales (e. Klooster 2003). 2001. resulting in local drying of these sites. 2001). Lupo et al. are critical in influencing how land can be used and by whom (Tucker 1999). and fragmentation-induced edge effects. Archer 2003)... 1995.. 2000. and understanding the reciprocal relationships between population and land change (e. a growing number of cases suggest that forests can persist under high population densities (e. 2003).. Archer 2003. 2000. and land tenure rules. Cochrane and Laurance.. recognizing their complexity and variation.. 1996.. among them scarcity of the valued good (Turner. 2002. emerging from a variety of sources.. 1999. Laris 2002. 2003). A notable advance has been the growing use of orbital earth-observing satellites linked to ground research to . Lambin et al.DEVELOPMENT OF LUCC AND ITS LINK TO LCLUC 7 feedbacks. Moran 1993. 1998. Steininger et al. MD 1999. Ostrom et al.. McCracken et al. Understanding of the role of population has also changed. 2003). and broadcasts ecological impact beyond the boundaries of direct human use of the land. fire. 1999a..

and consequences of human-induced changes on the Earth’s terrestrial surface are understood. 3. contributing novel insights to the interpretation of land-cover change on topics rarely addressable with any accuracy at global or regional scales—e. These. and ensure the advancement of policyrelevant land-change science. Moran et al. Empirical models explore the robustness of land-cover change projections based on patterns of past change (Dale et al. aimed at explaining and projecting land-change (Lambin 1994. giving rise to such international science efforts as DIVERSITAS. almost all of which focus on spatially explicit outcomes. Vance and Geoghegan. land change in areas undergoing urbanization (Seto and Kaufman.. 1996. 1994. M. is predicated on the continuance of programs like NASA-LCLUC... 1996. Turner. earth systems. Irwin and Geoghegan. Fischer and Sun. 2003). and Ecosystem Conservation—a United Nations University Project). Parker et al. Significant advances are underway in a variety of modeling approaches.. among others (Turner 2002). This future. 1989. 2003). 1996. et al. 1994. are being developed by the land modeling community (Pontius 2000. Wood and Porro. Rotmans and Dowlatabadi. the USGCRP has been . M. however. however. too. 2002). SKOLE AND TURNER address regional to local issues of land change (Liverman et al. The modeling community. et al. Fox et al..G. 2001. 2002).g... These efforts and those such as the NASA-LCLUC program have launched integrated land-change science. It is noteworthy. 1994. Geoghegan et al. 2000).g. 2002). from economics to engineering has responded strongly to this element of land-change research. 2002. We suspect that the new Land Project of the IGBP-IHDP will build on the breakthroughs of the past. Several new initiatives promise to support this future beyond NASA and such programs. 2002. 1989). Logit and other types of models explore the specific causes of land change drawing on various theories of the same (Chomitz and Gray. 4 The Future of Land-Change Research The land-change programs worldwide continue to gain programmatic support as the magnitude.. 2002). 1998.3 LAND MODELING An initial rationale for emphasizing land-change dynamics in global environment change science was to enhance earth system models. Pfaff 1999. The range and amount of activity currently generated in the land modeling community is so large that it is better grasped by reviewing various sections of this volume. Veldkamp and Lambin. sustainability. environment-development. Veldkamp and Fresco. and stages of secondary succession and their management (Brondizio et al. As required by law. 2001. Walsh and Crews-Meyer. Turner. Land Management. reach. Significant advances are underway in agent-based integrated assessment models in which the synergy between socially constrained human decision making and environment are linked to provide spatially explicit outcomes (Reibsame and Parton. 1998.. and PLEC (People. 2001. that the advances underway require new metrics by which to judge the results of the models. demonstrating the significance and understanding gained from addressing cross-disciplinary problems of global environmental change.8 MORAN. the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. NSF’s Biocomplexity effort. e. conservation and countryside biogeography. 2002.

2003. D. Hughes. and Wu. calls for a strong role for an integrated science of land-use and -cover change. E. The World Bank Economic Review 10: 487-512.R.. E. E. an emerging theme in global change and environmental research.J. Archer. Human Ecology 2(3): 249-278. and Skole. with land use and cover change research being highlighted as a core element of this agenda. which will significantly increase funding over the next five years for research linked to such themes as Complex Environmental Systems research. Brondizio. in particular carbon cycle and ecosystem services research. Dahlem Workshop Report no. 1996. Emerging trends in science programming with respect to land-change studies are clear in their direction: increasing emphasis on place-based research. . International Journal Of Remote Sensing 17(4): 835-839. MIT Press Cambridge. Development assistance agencies.S.F. Land cover in the Amazon Estuary: Linking of the thematic mapper with botanical and historical data. Building an agenda for global change at scales that matter. and relevance to decision making. H.. P.F. the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) will be putting in place new programs on regional-scale issues associated with global change. Mausel. S. 1996. M. Y. 91.M.. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing. Conservation Biology 15(6): 1515-1521. 62(8): 921-929. and Laurance. Archer.. Journal of Tropical Ecology 18: 311-325.. The Climate Change Science Program has highlighted the critical importance of land-use and -cover change in setting new directions for global change research. Journal of Arid Environments. and Landscape Change in Rondonia. Asner.A. Robeson. and sustainability themes...P. Mausel.F. Moran. 2001. are also building new programs around geographical information for sustainable development as a contribution to global change (NRC 2002). Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 69(7): 805812. of which land use/cover change is key. G. Clark. M. and Moran. The National Science Foundation is opening a new directorate-level program on Environmental Research in response to the “NSF Doubling Act” signed into law this year. Beyond the "Climate Versus Grazing" impasse: Using remote sensing to investigate the effects of grazing system choice on vegetation cover in Eastern Karoo. W.M. and deforestation: a spatial model applied to Belize. P. MA. the science of forecasting. Batistella. Moran. D. 1937-1999.A. Ansley. and Gray. Synergistic interactions between habitat fragmentation and fire in evergreen tropical forests.A. 2003. P. S.DEVELOPMENT OF LUCC AND ITS LINK TO LCLUC 9 formulating the Science Plan for the next decade of activities.S. Earth system analysis for sustainability. Chomitz.S. K. Brondizio. D. Amazonia.. Global Change Biology 9(3): 316-335. and its critical role in other aspects of global change. 1996. Forest Fragmentation.. E. Cochrane M. interdisciplinary research. coupled human-natural systems. Working with NASA and NOAA. Characterizing land cover dynamics using multi-temporal imagery. R... Land-use change in the Amazon Estuary: Patterns of caboclo settlement and landscape management. Net changes in regional woody vegetation cover and carbon storage in Texas drylands.. forthcoming.F. R.. Fire as a large-scale edge effect in Amazonian forests.F. with a strong role for Coupled Human Natural Systems research. 5 References Alves.L. and Wu. such as USAID.A. W. Settlement Design. E. 2003.J. 2002. Roads. land use. 2003. E. (forthcoming) Cochrane. and Schellnhuber. Crutzen.A. 1994. Land-use and land–cover change appears to be a critical element in this developing program because of its standalone significance. Y.. and Wessman C.

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1994). SW. emphasizing observations made from the unique perspective of space. ESE’s strategic objective is to provide scientific answers to the overarching question of “How is the Earth changing and what are the consequences for life on Earth?” To address this overarching question. ecology and biogeochemistry and in ESE programs including – the Interdisciplinary Science (IDS) Program. © 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. weather.CHAPTER 2 THE NASA LAND COVER AND LAND USE CHANGE PROGRAM GARIK GUTMAN1. ESE identifies five fundamental scientific components for study: variability. theoretical and modeling research (NASA 2003). Aspects of land-cover and land-use research are found throughout ESE sponsored projects and programs. The ESE’s research programs study the Earth as an integrated system. the data-oriented initiatives. The goal of ESE is to develop a scientific understanding of the Earth system in response to natural and human induced changes and improve predictive capabilities for climate. College Park. (eds. TOM LOVELAND3 1 NASA Headquarters. Washington. LCLUC elements are found as part of ESE research in hydrology. Printed in the Netherlands. .. An understanding of land cover and land use change are essential for ESE to meet its science goal. together with underlying laboratory. IGBP-DIS Focus 1 leader. forcing. this volume). The LCLUC key science questions are: 1) Where are land cover and land use changing. 2001). and natural hazards. 17–29. Sioux Falls. such as the EOS Data Pathfinders (Maiden and Greco. DC 20546 University of Maryland.. consequences and prediction. and Chris Justice.). David Skole. Gutman et al. SD 2 1 The NASA Programmatic Context for LCLUC Research A program of Land Cover and Land Use Change (LCLUC) research is sponsored by the Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) (Asrar et al. Department of Geography. and the Earth Science Applications 17 G. Land Change Science. responses. ED SHEFFNER1. LCLUC is a crosscutting science theme within the ESE designed and implemented initially by Robert Harriss and Anthony Janetos (the first LCLUC Program Manager). what is the extent of the change and over what time scale? 2) What are the causes and the consequences of LCLUC? 3) What are the projected changes of LCLUC and their potential impacts? and 4) What are the impacts of climate variability and changes on LCLUC and what is the potential feedback? These questions are in keeping with the broader international research agenda on land-use and land-cover change (Moran et al. 300 E Street. field. were instrumental in the emergence and early development of LCLUC at NASA through their involvement in broader national and international developments and their coordination of global satellite derived data sets for The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). MD 20742 3 USGS Eros Data Center. CHRISTOPHER JUSTICE2. chairman of IGBP/IHDP Land Cover and Land Use Change (LUCC) project and IGBP-DIS Focus 2 leader.

vulnerability and resilience of human land use and terrestrial ecosystems. In doing so. Climate Change Research Initiative by establishing the operational provision of land-use and land-cover data and information products. such as the Earth Science Information Partnerships (ESIPS) and the Research Education Applications Solutions Network (REASON). 2003). thus. aimed at developing improved approaches for data management and environmental information services.g. to model and forecast land-use and land-cover change and their direct and indirect impacts and evaluate the societal consequences of the observed and predicted changes.. provide a scientific foundation for understanding the sustainability. modeling capabilities and systems engineering in applications of national importance (Lee and Birk. scientists. JUSTICE. SHEFFNER & LOVELAND Program. ecological and socioeconomic drivers. LCLUC is a significant component in various NASA data initiatives.g. The longer-term objectives of the LCLUC program are to develop the capability to perform repeated global inventories of land use and land cover from space. Additionally. China and Southeast Asia. The NASA LCLUC research will also contribute to the U. decision makers and policy makers (CCSP 2003). The LCLUC Program has a special place in NASA’s ESE. e. the responses and the consequence of change (e. 2 LCLUC Research Components The LCLUC program was designed initially around a number of regional case studies. to improve the scientific understanding of land-cover and land-use processes and models necessary to simulate the processes taking place from local to global scales. The LCLUC program aims to develop and use NASA remote sensing technologies to improve understanding of human interactions with the environment and.S. 1996). Land use and land cover change is caused by a set of complex interactions between biophysical and socioeconomic variables. and the Earth Science Applications Program. this volume). communication and cooperation are maintained among the LCLUC Program. or have recently taken place.18 GUTMAN. contributing to the US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP 2003). the carbon and water cycle and the management of natural resources (Janetos et al. process studies and numerical modeling to address a combination of forcing factors of change involving climate. Seto et al. the ESE Terrestrial Ecology and Surface Hydrology research programs. Sader et al. services.. Mexico. such as the Brazilian Amazon. Understanding the process of land- . resource managers. Understanding the processes of change is a prerequisite for predictive capabilities. models and tools for multiple users. a major goal of the program is to further the understanding of the consequences of land-cover and land-use change on environmental goods and services. The latter utilizes ESE earth observations. The first phase of the LCLUC program (1996-2000) emphasized regional activities in areas where important land-use changes are taking place. The case studies used a combination of space observations. in-situ measurements.. this volume. complemented by methodological studies exploring the production and validation of particularly important regional and global remote sensing land use and land cover related datasets. developing interdisciplinary science with a high degree of societal relevance. Central and Southern Africa. To address the questions of the drivers of land-cover change with respect to carbon and water cycles. the processes of change.

1995. acquired by various US agencies since 1930 and. Turner et al. and natural hazards (e. 1989. for example. can be interpreted for land cover for the period circa 1930 to the present. trace gas emissions. Hansen et al..NASA LCLUC PROGRAM 19 use change involves an understanding of human decision making. Houghton 1994. Population changes and economic activity are critical factors that determine the type. These sources may be combined with Landsat Multispectral Scanner System (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) data for detailed retrospective studies covering the last 100 years. urban expansion. in most cases involving collaborations among ecologists. 2002). Because ecosystems often respond slowly. forging partnerships between physical and social scientists to address questions critical to our understanding of the Earth System (see Section II of this book). . Climatic and hydrologic variations and extremes can trigger persistent land cover changes that will. Pielke et al. For instance. and unclassified Department of Defense satellite photographs provide imagery for the period 1960 to 1980. droughts. the LCLUC program has proven itself as a truly interdisciplinary research program within the ESE. The consequences of land-cover change include a wide range of impacts on biogeochemical and water cycling.. floods. aerial orthophotos. since the mid–1980s. can change land use practices or the frequency of fires (Dale 1997). hurricanes) to years (e. in turn.. a USGS led federal interagency initiative.g. insect infestations) (Ojima et al.g. reforestation). 2002). Another important topic is the consequence of intensified management in agriculture. Variability in weather. The different pressures of economic development around the world and the need for increased food production need to be expressed in quantitative terms and ultimately incorporated into predictive models of land-cover dynamics. affect land-atmosphere exchanges for long periods of time (Avissar and Pielke. 2001). agricultural expansion or abandonment. Meyer 1995). distribution and intensity of land-cover modification and changes in land use (Marschner 1959. In this sense. logging) to decades (urban sprawl). micro. the NASA LCLUC program contributed to funding an interagency effort led by US Geological Survey on Land Use History of America (Sisk 1998). this volume). discrete records of land cover for the period 1850 to 1930.g. and sustainable development (Skole and Tucker. socio-economic conditions and internal ecosystem dynamics drive land cover changes on temporal scales from days (e. Prince. human health and welfare and biodiversity (Burke et al. fires. remote sensing specialists and resource managers. tuned to the forces of change at the regional scale (Desanker and Justice. climate. In this regard. The biophysical and human forcing factors that result in changes of land cover and land use are manifested through different phenomena such as changes in land ownership or land management practices (e..and macroclimate. understanding current land-cover patterns and the present impacts of past land-use changes. forestry and grazing systems and assessment of land degradation processes in various ecosystems (e. economists. There is a need for integration of multiple sources of land-cover data for longer historical perspectives. Successive years of drought or above average rainfall. through the National Aircraft Photography Program (NAPP).. geographers. 1991. biodiversity. These models need to be dynamic and process based. deforestation. 1994). McGuire 2001). based on accurate ground surveys. logging. requires taking into account land-use history. The regional case studies have been structured to strengthen interdisciplinary science. Measuring the rates of rapid conversion of forest cover to other types and monitoring the fate of deforested land is of particular interest because of the linkages to the carbon cycle.g. 1993. provide occasional. historical maps.g.

. data quality assessment. which constitutes the indispensable foundation for global land cover inventories.20 GUTMAN. The foremost observational requirement for LCLUC research is to extend the 30-year record of highresolution Landsat observations. and for the main part. the LCLUC program has fostered better access to NASA Earth observations and modeling results related to land processes. from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). It is critical that the long-term record of high resolution observations from the Landsat program be continued. remote sensing-based data sets related to land-cover and land-use change. and improved modeling of land-use dynamics. Landsat 7 is malfunctioning and there is considerable uncertainty concerning the continuity of the data record. SHEFFNER & LOVELAND The ESE LCLUC research contributes to a broader effort by the US government research agencies to incorporate human dimensions into the study of environmental changes. 2003) and the MODIS Land Product suite (Justice et al.. Recent examples of such data sets include the orthorectified.. studying the impacts of land-use change with emphasis on carbon and hydrological cycles. emphasis will need to be given to instrument calibration. For any follow-on mission.. High-resolution satellite data are used to map and quantify land cover changes at the local to regional scale. Availability of the global 30-m spatial resolution data that have been recently collected from Landsat-7 increases the potential for detailed studies of landscape change. Skole and Tucker. It is now more critical than ever. extend the . field process and parameterization studies. as well as on developing improved regional data sets. 2001. such as the National Science Foundation (NSF) and National Institute of Health (NIH) for the development of historical and socioeconomic data sets and methods and models for analysis of these data (National Research Council 2001). Goward et al. enabling data continuity without gaps in the data record (Committee on Earth Sciences 2000). it is important that the data quality and availability will be adequate for LCLUC research. The scaling up of land-cover and land-use change studies underscores the importance of ready access to data sets of increasing size and complexity. 3 Remote Sensing and the Study of LCLUC Spatially explicit monitoring of changes in land cover is essential for LCLUC research and is now feasible from space (e. An important component of the LCLUC program is the compilation and distribution to the scientific community and the public of large. This combination of moderate and high resolution satellite remote sensing forms the basis for a land cover change observing system (Skole et al. The emphasis of the current phase (2001-2004) in the NASA LCLUC Program is on extending local process and case studies to the regional scale and undertaking synthesis efforts across world regions. 2001). that high-resolution observations (c. 1999).. Since its inception. moderate resolution data are used to classify and characterize land cover at the global scale (Estes et al. At the time of writing. NASA relies on partnerships with other agencies. 1997). 1993). 2002). global Landsat data sets compiled by Earth Satellite Corporation from Landsat data from circa 1990 and 2000 (Sheffner et al. and predictive modeling of future land use.g. 30m) become part of the operational environmental satellite suite. a task that only a few years ago was not possible for some regions of the world (Arvidson et al. To achieve this. JUSTICE. data acquisition strategy and data policy.. The Terra and Aqua satellite products.

2002. 1998. During the last few years the LCLUC program has been investigating the utility of hyperspatial resolution data (<10m) for mapping land-cover change. The unprecedented 250-m spatial resolution of MODIS daily global observations is being used to accurately detect changes in land cover.. Time series of satellite data are analyzed to provide a consistent record of global land-cover change. 2002).. such as the New Millenium EO-1 mission (Yamaguchi et al. and to .. Roy et al. 2002.will need to be of sufficient quality to enable the measurement suite developed for the MODIS time series to be continued. and the sustainability of ecological services. 2003).NASA LCLUC PROGRAM 21 moderate resolution data record from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Emphasis is placed on the exploitation of satellite remote sensing data as the best source of information on the spatial distribution of land cover and rates of landscape change on regional. Hansen et al. The challenge in creating these records is to account for the evolving instrument design and performance since the 1970’s and necessitates dynamic product continuity. 2002. The data from the next generation moderate-resolution sensor -. The NASA ESE and its LCLUC Program support taking data from the sequence of individual moderate and high resolution sensors and developing long-term climate data records of sufficient quality for the study of global change.. which sets an important precedence for future missions (Morisette et al. using data from the commercially operated IKONOS system. Justice et al. 2002. characterize the end-states of land-cover modification in regions of high population density. such as recycling of nutrients. The Earth Science Applications Division is identifying decision support systems used by NASA’s operational partners to benchmark existing technology in the procedures of the partner organizations. 2002). allowing the monitoring of potential “hot spots” over the globe (Zhan et al.. Laporte et al. 2003) Priority for change detection is being given to areas of the world that have been undergoing the most change and where stresses from human activities are likely to increase most rapidly. 2002).. and global scales.. this volume). Townshend and Justice. Results have demonstrated the utility of hyperspatial data for mapping logging and forest degradation and validating high-resolution interpretations (Hansen et al. Ungar et al.the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer System (VIIRS) -. including continuous fields of tree cover and burned area (Friedl et al.. The continuity of these moderate resolution data is being developed in the context of the National Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) (Townshend and Justice. biodiversity. A new development led by the MODIS science team has given increasing emphasis to data product quality assessment and validation. and study the impacts of spatial patterns and past history of land-use conversion on ecosystem processes. continental. 2002.. the LCLUC program is developing a partnership with the ESE Earth Science Applications Division to assure that the Earth observations. 4 LCLUC and ESE Applications In addition to the scientific research programs. providing global land-cover products.. NASA has also launched technology demonstration projects to explore the utility of high resolution thermal and hyperspectral data. modeling and system engineering it supports to acquire land cover/land use information are extended for use by the broader community for decision support in applications that address issues of national importance.

for water management. with more accurate information on the expected rate and extent of flooding. as they sum over the time and spatial extent of the estimates. there will be a need for information on carbon exchange. both domestically and internationally. or 3) areas with very large storage of carbon (e. The primary data need will be rigorous. as well as how to represent landscape level variability in simulation models.1 LCLUC AND CARBON MANAGEMENT Carbon management is a critical national issue. The role of LCLUC in four of these application areas is described below.. research is needed to develop methods and techniques at fine spatial scales.g. 4. Land-cover information combined with digital topography will provide significant new data products for hydrologic modeling. Land-cover and land-use information will be needed to estimate the potential of a given area as a source or sink of carbon. model relationships. Consequently. For example. and methods for fusing data from different sources. on the spatial and temporal resolution of the data.2 LCLUC AND WATER MANAGEMENT Land-over and land-use information is essential in decision support systems for water management and includes monitoring parameters affecting water quantity and quality and generation of data products that characterize riparian zones. NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation data will improve maps of snow pack and provide more accurate estimates of amount and impact of runoff. SHEFFNER & LOVELAND improve the operational efficiency of the partners through incorporation of NASA’s unique assets and capabilities. The utility of geospatial information for decision support systems is dependent. 2003). JUSTICE. a spatial resolution of at least 1 km on a weekly basis is “reasonable” for snow pack estimation. Attention will be needed in those areas with greatest carbon sensitivity. Land cover and land use information is crucial in most of the twelve national application areas identified to date by the ESE. land cover type and vegetation structure and condition. monitoring land-cover and land-use change for carbon sequestration and assessment of carbon sequestration projects (IPCC 2000. High resolution digital elevation models combined with high resolution imagery of flood plains will assist the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and local government agencies plan for floods and respond to flood events. Within the next several years. Users will likely need to have uncertainty estimates that incorporate the various potential sources of error in input variables. Much of the activity in carbon trading will involve individual plots of land or management operations. MODIS 500m) is suitable for vegetation monitoring or burn .22 GUTMAN. for example: 1) where dramatic land-use change is occurring. spatially explicit estimates of carbon exchanges at spatial and temporal scales that match the size of land being managed and the temporal constraints of the carbon credit exchanges and contracts. in part. high amounts of carbon stored in soils or vegetation. such as peat lands or the tropical forests). The focus of this research must include evaluation of sources of input data. Marland et al. any wet and warm ecosystem). 4. Monthly coverage at the same spatial resolution or higher (e. defensible. in combination with either 2) areas with very high flux rates of carbon (high NPP. and parameter estimates.g.

and private landowner groups. modeling and systems engineering have been aimed at regional to global consideration. 2002). Palmer and Shan. 30m data within a few days after the burn are needed for post-fire watershed rehabilitation assessments. and planning for and response to natural and man-made disasters – wildfire. While much of NASA’s capabilities in earth observation. Common to both issues is the need for rapid input and processing of data and the ability of local managers to acquire the geospatial information they need to . 4.4 LCLUC AND INVASIVE SPECIES Invasive species are a major environmental issue of this century and have recently been identified as one of the eight grand challenges in environmental science (National Research Council 2001).. While hyperspatial resolution data (< 10m) are becoming available for local uses. implications of change are measured in days. there remain significant hurdles to adoption including access to data and knowledge of the use of geospatial information (Sugumaran et al.are specific application areas. earthquake and severe weather . Depicting the context of human/land interface is the dominant geospatial information requirement for community growth and disaster management. 1997). 4. flood..3 LCLUC AND COMMUNITY GROWTH The issue of scale is critical when discussing geospatial information needs for community growth and disaster management issues. The use of cellular automata and agent-based models are being used experimentally in combination with Landsat data to develop projections of urban growth (Clarke et al. Urban vegetation inventory. and location and eradication of invasive species. community growth and disaster management issues are usually focused on local areas and larger scales. data for local decision-making must maintain high spatial and temporal resolutions. The number of invasive species entering the US per year is in the thousands (Simberloff 1996). The invasive species application includes two broad issues. transportation planning and networking. mapping location of known and potential areas of invasive species expansion. Regular mapping of the urban interface needs to be undertaken using high-resolution satellite or airborne data. land-cover and land-use applications need to address the scaling of models to local communities. Regional thirty-meter resolution data (e. states.g. 2002). not years. This issue has developed diverse stakeholder support. 2002. the agricultural industry. Local government communities base decisions on high spatial resolution information..NASA LCLUC PROGRAM 23 scar mapping. In addition. Incorporating higher resolution datasets into end-user needs would be beneficial in both the immediate future and for years to come. ranging from land management agencies. Beyond limitations in spatial resolution. Thus. land-cover impact on water quality/quantity. Landsat ETM+) could be updated semi-annually to annually for increased benefit and improvement in decision support systems. conservation organizations.. This information is often described in terms of parcels. Airborne Lidar technology is being used increasingly for fine scale mapping of everything from ecosystem functioning to urban areas providing canopy structure and elevation data that can be applied directly to existing/traditional applications (Lefsky et al. impervious surface mapping. The challenge to the research and applications community is to adapt the techniques and the technology of geospatial analysis to the local level.

Habitat and species information is crucial for invasive species control. Hyperspectral remote sensing is being evaluated for its use in invasive species mapping (Underwood et al. microclimate. which is the interagency forum for coordinating global change research. 6 The International Context of the LCLUC Program Important land-use questions related to global food supply. In the first decade of USGCRP. CCSP 2003). land use). and a Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) has also been included to address those research aspects of immediate societal relevance (USGCRP 2002. weather and climate. carbon sources and sinks. For the second decade of the USGCRP. data processing.24 GUTMAN. USFS. JUSTICE. emphasis was given to addressing climate change causes and impacts (Committee on Global Change Research 1999). In this context. Control efforts require the integration of ground data with local to regional geospatial data products of land cover. Another important development in the United States has been the identification in 2001 of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Dynamics as one of the eight top challenges in the environmental sciences (NRC 2001). product generation and product delivery. Land Use and Land Cover Change has been added as a research element. Current land-cover and landuse information alone is not sufficient for predictive mapping. regional water resources. NIH and USAID to expand the scope of the land-use and land-cover change research agenda. 2003). topography.g. soils. SHEFFNER & LOVELAND take effective action. Strengthening interagency collaboration to complement NASA’s research is considered a top priority of the NASA LCLUC program. Effective prediction of invasive species habitat and spread requires technology that is beyond the capacity of local communities and must be delivered through cooperative and collaborative efforts. Existing programs focus on development of predictive maps of the spread of invasive species and keeping those maps current with information from national and local organizations. water resources. 5 US Interagency Coordination in the Study of LCLUC NASA ESE is an active contributor to the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). partnerships are now being developed with other federal agencies such as USGS. Invasive species. Land-use and land-cover change was identified as a fast-track priority requiring immediate funding because of its significance and the readiness of the community to make important contributions given the efforts of the past decade. biodiversity loss and population growth necessitate working in a number of different regions and results in a strong international flavor to the . The use of the Internet provides a mechanism for quick assimilation of data. topography. EPA. The discussion by a blue-ribbon panel of the NRC considered more than 200 topics before focusing on 8 of them as the Grand Challenges for the coming decade. are virtually impossible to eradicate for biological and financial reasons. Land cover maps derived from remote sensing need to be designed specifically to meet the needs for invasive species studies and merged with other geospatial data pertinent to the spread of invasive species (e. USDA. once well established in an area..

generates the data products and develops the associated modeling and analysis methods to address earth science questions.g. NASA primarily develops and tests aerospace technology. Interdisciplinary and Landsat programs.. Although global monitoring systems are rapidly being established for the global oceans (National Research Council 1997. The LCLUC program recognizes the importance of establishing the global observing systems needed for the long-term monitoring of land cover and land use and through its research program is developing and demonstrating the methods required for such a system. 2001) and the SAFARI project studying fire and its impact on atmospheric chemistry in southern Africa (e.g. 2003. 2003)... The program emphasizes studies where land-use change is rapid or where there are significant regional or global implications. This program has the goal of establishing the operational monitoring systems through international cooperation. which is a component of the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) (Justice et al. Townshend et al. The ESE develops and launches the instruments. Communication between LUCC and LCLUC has been routine. the ESE has recently supported two large regional science campaigns with an emphasis on LCLUC: the LBA project studying land use in the Amazon Basin incorporate the study of LCLUC in the Amazon Basin (Nobre et al. (in this volume). IOC 1998). increasing their accessibility to NASA spaceborne assets and helping NASA scientists analyze and understand the often complex local and regional issues and conditions. LCLUC and LUCC have jointly established an international colloquium series consisting of periodic conferences on topics of mutual interest to both programs. Korontzi et al. The global monitoring systems will need to be international. product accuracy and data continuity. Although NASA collects systematic observations in support of its science mission. A number of LCLUC projects have been endorsed by the LUCC Program. 7 LCLUC Program Directions Although the base funding of the LCLUC program has remained at the same level. it is not an operational agency and responsibility for operational monitoring within the US falls to other agencies e. this volume). The LCLUC . usually conducted through the informal channels of scientific exchanges and common participation in a variety of research activities. which preceded the NASA program is described by Turner et al.NASA LCLUC PROGRAM 25 LCLUC program. The IGBP-IHDP Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) Research Program.. they do not yet exist for the land surface. It should be noted that the latter two agencies have a strong domestic emphasis and responsibility for international operational monitoring must ultimately be addressed in partnership with the international community. In this regard the LCLUC program is a major contributor to the Global Observation of Forest Cover/Global Observation of Landcover Dynamics (GOFC/GOLD) program. The LCLUC program promotes collaboration with in-country scientists and regional science networks. during the last 3 years the LCLUC program has grown and the number of projects across ESE with LCLUC elements has almost doubled. conforming to internationally accepted standards of data quality. USFS (National Research Council 2003). Recently. NOAA. mainly due to funded projects under NASA’s Carbon Cycle. USGS. In addition to individual regional research projects.

Many challenges remain for phase II of LCLUC: regional syntheses. Estes R. Global environmental change: research pathways for the next decade. 134pp. NASA Headquarters. The LCLUC program will continue its contribution to GOFC/GOLD. (Eds. Creedon J.. Strategic plan for the US Climate Change Science Program. applications of societal relevance. K. W.V.requirements and capabilities. Burke. Remote Sensing of the Environment.C. the program is comprised largely of projects studying the LCLUC relations to the carbon cycle and water cycle. McDonald H. T.. and Gaydos. 1989. . National Research Council. Currently. W.. water resources and climate.an innovative approach to building a global imagery archive. Yonker. I.K. and Parton. Monthly Weather Review 117: 2113-2135.M. 78 (1-2). Parker et al.. advances in integrated modeling (Veldkamp and Lambin. 595pp. Committee on Global Change Research 1999.26 GUTMAN. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) 2003. 1991. 8 References Arvidson T. Asrar G.N.. National Research Council. 1997. Space Studies Board. leading to projections of future land-use change and undertaking LCLUC studies to address the impacts of LCLUC on the carbon cycle. Hoppen. 2001. 43p. National Academy Press. Washington. US CCSP. Washington DC.C. Lauenroth. 2001. Issues in the Integration of Research and Operational Satellite Systems for Climate Research: 1 . BioScience 41(10): 685692. 2000. helping to secure regular global inventories of land-cover and land-use change... JUSTICE. A Self-Modifying Cellular Automaton Model of Historical Urbanization in the San Francisco Bay Area. and Stone E.C. Gasch J. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 24: 247-261.. Regional Analysis of the Central Great Plains: Sensitivity to Climate Variability. Snook. Avissar... and Pielke. Committee on Earth Sciences. R. Diaz A.F. Peterson K.. Washington D.A.. National Academy Press.. The program’s strategy continues to be based on balancing large-scale satellite data analysis and generation of validated data sets with regional case studies designed to gain insights into specific biogeophysical and anthropogenic processes and their social contexts. SHEFFNER & LOVELAND program has expanded from the initial LCLUC case studies to include studies on the impacts of land use and regional LCLUC prediction and synthesis. and further strengthening the link between the natural and the social sciences to ensure the integrative study of land change (Moran and Ostrom. R. Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan. 2003). The synergistic use of remote sensing and social science data and enhancement of the interdisciplinary character of the NASA LCLUC program will remain the main programmatic goal. under review). The LCLUC program will continue its regional process studies but also contribute to emerging regional science initiatives such as the North American Carbon program (NACP) and the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI).F. 202pp.. Kittel. Large-scale climate modeling with global or regional LCLUC satellite-derived and in situ data used as input is gradually becoming an important part of the program.G.. 2002.J. 13-26.. In the coming years the LCLUC program will emphasize its contribution the US CCSP. Clarke. A report by the Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research. C. P.) 2001. Goward S.. S. Landsat 7's long-term acquisition plan . A Parameterization of Heterogeneous Land Surfaces for Atmospheric Numerical Models and Its Impact on Regional Meteorology. L..S.

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BRYAN LEE7 University of Maryland.3). © 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Economics. Canada 1 1 Introduction To ensure systematic long-term observations of the environment several efforts have been made in recent years to provide international coordination of observational systems working within the framework of various overarching international organizations. One such effort is known as Global Observations of Forest Cover/Global Observations of Land Cover Dynamics (GOFC/GOLD). Gutman et al. 31 G. Printed in the Netherlands. Department of Geography. the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Council for Science (ICSU). Bogor. Washington DC. Edmonton. Land Change Science. namely the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). 2181 LeFrak Hall. CHRISTOPHER O. TOWNSHEND1. DAVID L. . Ispra. (eds. JOHANN GEORGE GOLDAMMER6 . Lansing. GOFC/GOLD is one of the Panels of the Global Terrestrial Observing System. In doing the latter we propose a new template which is used to assess objectively how close we are to achieving the goals of long term operational systematic observations of land cover for the whole globe. In this chapter we review the goals of the organization and make an assessment of progress made in realizing the plans formulated in the later part of the 1990’s. MD 20742 USA 2 Michigan State University. IWAN GUNAWAN5. Germany 7 Canadian Forest Service. and the Environment. SKOLE2. USA 5 Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT). Italy 4 The H. John Heinz III Center for Science. College Park. the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP). 31–51. Originally it was set up to consider the monitoring of forests and hence the original name of Global Observations of Forest Cover (GOFC) but has been extended to all land cover types (see section 4. ALAN BELWARD3. an organization sponsored by four UN bodies. GOFC as an organization was originally set up by the Committee for Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS) and it retains close links with that organization because of the importance of spaceborne remotely sensed observations to the goals of GOFC/GOLD. JUSTICE1. Indonesia 6 University of Freiberg. ANTHONY JANETOS4.CHAPTER 3 MEETING THE GOALS OF GOFC An Evaluation of Progress and Steps for the Future JOHN R.). MI USA 3 Joint Research Center.

Most such organizations also play an important role in capacity building in developing countries. NASA. The conference concluded that significant technical and methodological advances have been made in recent years. for example where Eumetsat is responsible for operational European weather forecasting satellites and the European Space Agency is responsible for environmental satellites for research purposes. called the Landsat Pathfinder Project built on experience gained during a proof-ofconcept exercise as part of NASA's contribution to the International Space Year/World . 3 Origins of GOFC/GOLD The design of GOFC/GOLD arose from substantial earlier efforts to monitor the earth’s land cover and especially its forests. The World Forest Watch Conference held in São José dos Campos. This activity.32 TOWNSHEND ET AL. and the international global change research community through IGBP. but it directly controls only a quite modest budget. to collect observations or generate products: rather they provide the international framework within which national resources can be allocated. Even though most international bodies have limited resources they do play key roles in providing overall strategies and frameworks. International organizations are usually less effective at directly raising resources themselves to carry out research. one of the most important land cover changes. The following are some of the important precursor activities identified in the original strategy document for GOFC prepared for CEOS (Janetos and Ahern. This meeting also served as a basis for forwarding recommendations from the technical and scientific communities to the policy makers and government leaders at UNCED. This is especially true within Europe. Although international organizations are relatively impecunious by design there are major exceptions where groups of nations decide to pool resources to carry out specific tasks. most of the resources remaining at a national level. For example WMO helps coordinate an enormous array of in situ and space observation capabilities primarily for weather forecasting. setting well articulated designs and goals for global and regional observing systems and in establishing and gaining international consensus on standards and protocols relating to the collection of observations and the supply of data and information products. in conjunction with the US-EPA and USGS. 2 The International Roles of GOFC/GOLD International organizations concerned with observations have key roles in ensuring that consistent global observations are collected. Brazil (June 1992) provided an initial high-level international forum for the assessment of current approaches to satellite-based monitoring. and they were sufficient to proceed with an observation system which could satisfy both scientific and nationallevel forest management requirements. 1997). It has to be recognized that the resources that they are able directly to control are usually quite limited. undertook a prototype procedure for using large amounts of high resolution satellite imagery to map the rate of tropical deforestation. The remainder of this section is based closely on this document. Additionally they have important roles in assessing whether observational systems are indeed meeting the goals that have been agreed upon by governments.

the Global Rain Forest Mapping project was a collaboration between NASDA.. 1995). It also focused on the use of thermal sensors for the detection of fires. For tropical forests. Africa. daily coverage at this resolution. This data set included products from coarse and high spatial resolution satellite sensors. NASA supported an IGBP project to acquire global. This project was the first of its kind to acquire global. including multi-temporal coverages over the Amazon and Congo river basins to capture season effects and to map inundation in flooded forests.. As part of a land-cover mapping exercise. and Asia. and incorporated other indicators of deforestation.. An Interagency MultiResolution Land Characterization (MRLC) project. This project also provided complete coverage of the United States with Landsat Thematic Mapper data. ERS-SAR..in total some 13.000 scenes . Using training centers in Latin America. A complete SAR coverage over the tropical belt . vegetation phenology and fires. 2000). In principle. which relied primarily on a two-date interpretation of large scale photographic prints of full Landsat scenes. The resultant dataset was processed at the EROS Data Center and provided the basis for globally mapping land cover. A similar effort was undertaken in Mexico with the help of in-country collaborators. implemented by the USGS on behalf of a number of federal agencies. The TRopical Ecosystem Environment Observations by Satellites (TREES) project was implemented as a demonstration of the feasibility of applying space observation techniques to monitoring of land cover and biomass burning (Malingreau et al. though not for topographical effects. 1994).. 1991). Latin America and Asia (FAO 1996). it provided an initial large-scale prototype of an operation program. JERS-1 SAR. Resurs. SAR mosaics at 100 m resolution were generated to cover the tropical region in all three continents. Landsat. FAO developed a technique called the Interdependent Interpretation Procedure.MEETING THE GOALS OF GOFC 33 Forest Watch Project (Skole and Tucker. though with concern expressed concerning its accuracy (Matthews 2001). The resulting change classes also allowed FAO to estimate transitions between several woody biomass categories for Africa. It focused initially on the Brazilian Amazon. JPL and the Joint Research Centre with the aim of generating JERS-1 L-band SAR data sets of the global tropical forests. Loveland et al. and was expanded as part of NASA's Earth Observing System activities to cover other regions of the humid tropical forests. In conjunction with NOAA and the USGS. The FAO Forest Resource Assessment for the 1990 period (FRA-90) used a combination of earth observation data and national statistics to derive statistics about forest cover for the 1990 datum. This map was produced using the 1km AVHRR data set generated by (Loveland et al.. and forest cover change for the period 1980 to 1990 (FAO 1995). daily coverage with the AVHRR sensor at 1 km resolution (Eidenshink and Faundeen. ATSR. 1994. Townshend et al.was acquired in 1995-96. and SPOT. Within the framework of NASDA's Global Forest Mapping Program. this project eventually led to the DISCover global land cover data set (Belward et al. . 1993) (Townshend et al. An early major example of a regional /continental scale land cover mapping study was the USFS /USGS US Forest Cover Map. Subsequently the FRA 2000 assessment has been reported (FAO 2001). subsequently generated land cover data sets for the conterminous US. FAO was able to train local interpreters and obtain consistent results. This project utilized global coverage with a wide range of sensors including AVHRR. 1999. 1993). The mosaics were radiometrically and geometrically corrected.

which contains many of the elements of the subsequent GOFC/GOLD programs. Northern Europe and North America with JERS-1 SAR Also the GBFM project is a joint effort by NASDA. The goals for the fire element were developed following the integrated strategy (Ahern et al. Kux et al. teams have been assembled to guide the implementation. 1998) and subsequently in the revised integrated strategy prepared in 1999 (Ahern et al. including applications to forest are research... Forest Fire Monitoring and Mapping and Forest Biophysical Processes. These various initiatives led to the formulation of an overall observational strategy for the monitoring of land cover change (Skole et al. and CSA.. 1997). The Canadian Radarsat program acquired complete global coverage in the ScanSAR mode during its initial phase of operations (Mahmood et al. developing consensus algorithms and standard methodologies for product generation and product validation in conjunction .. with collaboration from DLR. 4. 4 Review of the Strategy of GOFC/GOLD The strategic goals of GOFC/GOLD are to be found mainly in the original strategic plan written for CEOS in 1997 (Janetos and Ahern. CCRS.. An associated research program was initiated to demonstrate applications. Within the IGBP System for Analysis. executing prototype projects. Research showed that Radarsat held promise for mapping logging and deforestation in tropical and boreal forests (Ahern et al. Starting in 1997. The GBFM project aimed at covering the boreal forests in Siberia. Many regional land cover mapping activities were initiated in the 1990s.34 TOWNSHEND ET AL.. 1997. NASA/JPL/ASF and the JRC. The observations include all those required whether collected in-situ or from remotely sensed platforms of various types. Shimabukuro et al. 1997). 1998)... 1997.. 1997).1 PRIMARY STRATEGIC GOALS The ultimate objective of GOFC/GOLD is to lead to the operational collection of sustained systematic observations and their processing to create useful products for several key user communities (table 1).. 2001. Most notable were the Southeast Asian and Southern Africa regional activities (IGBP 1997). Operational in this context means that nations will take on the responsibility for these activities on an indefinite basis just as they do for observations leading to weather forecasts. 1998) and coarse resolution remotely sensed products (Loveland et al. As part of this process. The essence of the implementation strategy was to develop and demonstrate operational forest monitoring at regional and global scales by developing prototype projects along the three primary themes of Forest Cover Characteristics and Changes. 2003). Research and Training (START) a number of regional activities focusing on the land cover change question were begun.. in the more detailed documentation of the fine resolution (Skole et al. With the broadening of the scope of GOFC to include all land cover the term “forest” has been replaced by “land”. the Global Boreal Forest Mapping Project (GBFM) formed a follow-on project to the GRFM. 1999). the National Swedish Space Board. 1997) and for monitoring macrophyte growth in tropical reservoirs and floodplains (Costa et al. Justice et al.

Main user communities for forest and other land cover information (adapted from (Janetos and Ahern. 1995). human-driven loss of biodiversity worldwide is rapidly mounting. Table 1. many national programs for sustainable forest . and scientific knowledge from the experience gained in developing and executing GOFC prototype projects. The first is the interaction of forests and the atmosphere: regulation of the hydrologic cycle and energy budget. An important part of implementation strategy has been to identify gaps and overlaps in earth observation data. culminating in the International Convention on Biological Diversity. Concern over the rapid. productivity. with implications for weather and climate prediction. and therefore on the economic activities that are generated by forested lands? What feedbacks might these changes have to the climate system itself? (2) Timber. Continued improvements in forest management will be necessary to meet these demands without depleting the forest resource (Nyland 1996) (3) Watershed Protection. The extent and condition of forested lands are central issues to the preservation and sustainable use of biodiversity. and developing and demonstrating procedures for improved data access for the user community. landscape planning. (Turner II et al. Both forest loss and forest fragmentation have been implicated in losses of biodiversity by the scientific community. methods. For centuries. and fibre. On the other hand. There are three pathways of relevance for global change and forest lands with implications. Increasing populations and increasing literacy and affluence in the twenty-first century will continue to put increasing demands on the forests of the world. and concentrations of carbon dioxide and other radiatively active gases have on forest composition. 1997)) (1) Global Change. The twentieth century produced substantial improvements in the efficiency of production of wood and fiber from forests. fuel. Up to the present the main focus has been on the first two themes. Forested areas and other wooded lands play a crucial role for terrestrial hydrological systems (Hammond 1991. Nyland 1996). Are forested lands net sources of carbon or net sinks of carbon? What are the rates of deforestation and reforestation? What are the implications of changes in fire frequency? The third pathway is the potential impacts of climate change: what effect will changes in temperature. and distribution. ground systems. human society has depended critically on the continued supply of wood and fiber from forest land. Many societies have declined after depleting their forest resources (Perlin 1991). The actual location and size of forests in relation to the watershed often determines the run-off fraction of the precipitation and becomes the dominant factor in flood and erosion prevention. The second is both a scientific and policy issue: the implications of changes in forest land for the atmospheric carbon dioxide budget. (4) Biodiversity.MEETING THE GOALS OF GOFC 35 with in-situ measurements. health. These areas constitute the most important buffer zones for both runoff and infiltration to ground water reserves. Close monitoring of forests in relation to the hydrographic network thus becomes a critical issue in physical planning. Understanding these interactions is a crucial part of the global change science agenda. and environmental protection in all regions of the world. precipitation.

1999). which satisfy clearly identified requirements of user agencies. which can be used to derive credible information concerning the forest and other land cover types’ components of the carbon budget for research and policy use. providing a forum for regional scientists. as well and recommendations about how unnecessary overlaps in space agency programs might be resolved. Forests provide habitat for wildlife. a series of other subsidiary goals were also identified in the original plans of GOFC/GOLD. . data from multiple sensors. There should be stimulation of advances in the state of the art in the management and dissemination of large volume data sets and information from multiple sensors. while conserving its resources so future generations can also benefit from the forest.. Sustainable forest management has become an extremely important philosophy. (6) Sustainable Forest Management. and strives to respond to the needs and wants of the multiple stakeholders who benefit from the forest. especially that it should work towards the increased operational use of earth-observation data for policy decisionmaking at national. (5) Recreation and Tourism. along with ecosystem management. Promotion of common data processing standards and interpretation methods. data providers and operational users to articulate their information requirements and improve access to and use of the observations (Justice et al. necessary for inter-comparison of regional studies should be pursued. validating and improving methods and algorithms and a place to test integration of in-situ and remote sensing observations. These regional networks also provide a mechanism for calibrating.2 SUBSIDIARY STRATEGIC PRIORITIES In order to achieve the first order strategic goals. GOFC/GOLD is being implemented through a series of regional networks. and global levels. In many countries. in conjunction with geographic information systems.36 TOWNSHEND ET AL. Using as appropriate. and opportunities for recreation and tourism. validated prototype information products should be created. Validated products should be generated. the direct economic return from these activities approaches the return from extraction of wood and fibre. 4. management are now incorporating biodiversity as one of the attributes to be enhanced and maintained. Earth observation data. Many other countries want to increase the benefits they derive from recreation and tourism. Sustainable forest management recognizes the multiple benefits provided by forests. Partnerships between CEOS space agency members and user agencies should be created and strengthened and deficiencies identified. in combination with in-situ data. provides exciting new opportunities to engage a broad spectrum of stakeholders in long-term forest management planning. Information obtained from Earth observation data can aid in the strategic planning for recreation and tourism in forested areas. The use of earth-observation information products for forest management and scientific research concerning forest biophysical processes also needs to be enhanced. regional. to guide the plans of land-managers (both public and private) for the use of forested lands over the next several decades.

The fact that they remain timely should not be construed as meaning that no progress has as yet been made (see section 6). Also encouraging an all embracing approach to the earth’s land cover by GOFC/GOLD is the increasing interest of forest services in many areas of trees in non-forested areas. Clearly it is inappropriate that GOFC/GOLD attempt any sort of duplicative international coordination role. It should be stressed that these considerations do not mean that the definition of forests for all GOFC/GOLD’s stake-holders exactly match those of the FAO Forest Resource Assessment. Therefore a substantial proportion of all the earth’s vegetated areas are likely embraced by this definition and in physiognomic terms only grasslands with less than 10% crown cover and unvegetated areas would be excluded. The most important change was the inclusion of all cover types and not merely forest cover. in terms of what is required within each. Unless GOFC/GOLD includes the other cover types in its remit it would leave the necessity for another body to take responsibility for this component of the Earth’s land cover types. consideration of these activity’s plans indicates the clear need for GOFC/GOLD in terms of the required remotely sensed observations. In part this relates to lack of resources but in part it also relates to the fact that other international efforts have recently been making major advances in either scoping and defining the needed observations such as the activity known as Terrestrial Carbon Observations (TCO) (Cihlar et al. The reasons for this partly lie with the quite broad definitions of forest cover and was particularly related to the official United Nations Forest Resource Assessment definition. For these reasons GOFC/GOLD now includes in its remit all land cover types including forest cover. The definition of forests is based on a number of factors including crown cover which need only be as little as 10% (FAO 2001).. as needed. The latter also requires that the dominant land use is also forestry. However. In practice only the first two have been set up and the biophysical team still had not been convened. Without such metrics any organization will lack the necessary mechanisms for monitoring its progress and for. Consideration of the all-embracing original goals of GOFC/GOLD indicates they have been somewhat overly ambitious especially given the funds that have become available. fire and biophysical. 2002) (Cihlar and Jansen. making products more available and ensuring that the product are . Hence an area with crown cover is >10% where the dominant land use is for livestock production is not a forest sensu stricto. 2001). For many of the stake-holders of GOFC/GOLD observations of forest cover related to their biophysical properties are observed independent of land use (see table 1).MEETING THE GOALS OF GOFC 4. This is manifested for example in the fact that three implementation teams were originally proposed namely forest (land) cover. A third deficiency in the plans of GOFC/GOLD is the absence of a set of metrics for measuring the progress made in achieving its stated goals in implementing its plans. In the next section we outline a template for implementation of GOFC/GOLD and discuss each of the stages in turn.3 ARE THE PRIORITIES FOR GOFC/GOLD STILL SOUND? 37 Consideration of the plans as outlined in the previous two sections for GOFC/GOLD it is fair to conclude that they remain sound and timely. This approach is based on achieving the three main goals of GOFC/GOLD namely making observation systems operational. revising its approach. 2001) or in the actual implementation such as the Fluxnet programs (Baldocchi et al..

Template for GOFC/GOLD to operationalize its products Specification of requirement Validation procedures established and applied Observations available (as data sets) Product adopted and distributed by operational agency Routine quality assurance & validation Further improvements needed to meet requirements? Algorithms/ assimilation established Research/ prototype product created Figure 1. which acts on behalf of Europe’s meteorological agencies and has a governing council of the member nations. It also needs to be recognized that in achieving such goals.situ observations. currently the operation of all environmental satellites remains with individual space agencies. gainfully applied by stake-holders. It should be noted that the process is almost always an iterative one. Thus international observing programs need both formal and informal mechanisms to influence national agencies in terms of implementation. Following this section is an assessment of current progress made in each of these. 5 A Template for GOFC/GOLD in Operationalizing Products To move from a set of plans to the operational collection of a set of systematic longterm observations is always very challenging however important the observations (Karl 1996). One notable exception to this is Eumetsat. implementation usually remains largely with specific programs in national agencies rather than with resources channeled through international organizations. nor will requirements normally remain static. The difficulties in trying to influence several different space agencies is in many respects quite minor compared with getting national agencies to become responsible for in. Template of the main stages in the development of capabilities within the framework of GOFC/GOLD Overarching international coordination mechanisms such as the Integrated Global Observation Strategy and the Strategic Implementation Team of CEOS offer possibilities for improving observational systems as does the recently launched GEO coordination scheme following the Washington DC summit of environmental ministers .38 TOWNSHEND ET AL. For example. In Figure 1 we provide a template showing the main stages which have to be gone through. Once observational products are created and used on a regular basis they are rarely optimal for all users.

but in practice this is difficult to provide. Ideally it would be worth the effort to define those products which can be directly used by a wide cross-section of users. It is also desirable that the consequences of not achieving a particular goal be clearly articulated if at all possible. . An additional complication is that different users may require similar sounding products. can also be transformed into products at coarser resolutions. At any rate. It will be important to ensure that well defined rules of aggregation are defined to ensure that such users obtain the products they need. A key role of GOFC/GOLD is therefore to identify the capabilities of current observational assets in meeting requirements and in assessing what improvements may be needed to match the requirements more closely. It is important also to examine the burgeoning plans of organizations such as TCO (Terrestrial Carbon Observations) to ensure that their requirements are accurately described by GOFC/GOLD’s plans. to suit the needs of regional and global modelers who need products at much coarser resolutions. This has already been recognized to a degree by the Land Cover Implementation Team which has identified a suite of products which are similar in most respects but with very different spatial resolutions.g. Given that most of the requirements were articulated over 5 years ago it is advisable they are all systematically revisited in the near future. 5. A further example from land cover is the possibility of creating products defining physiognomic characteristics as continuous fields (DeFries et al. A word of caution is needed to prevent the excessive proliferation of products. 1999).. These potentially can then be broken out into any arbitrary classes by applying user-defined thresholds. The many stake-holders for forest and land cover observations each with particular domainspecific needs could potentially result in an unwieldy number of different products. Several derive from the work of the Data and Information System of the International Geosphere Biosphere Program (e. it is desirable to define a relatively small number of basic products which can then be transformed to specific products tuned particular user needs. For example an annual land cover product at 250m which can be used for national forest inventory. They should arise from wide consultation with user communities and they should be grounded in the refereed scientific literature so far as possible. but with different specifications. Those concerned primarily with observations for biophysical models may require very different inputs than those concerned with governmental decision-support systems.MEETING THE GOALS OF GOFC 39 in 2003. It is clear that different end-users will require products with different specifications. Whatever the mechanisms used to achieve implementation there needs to be clarity in measuring progress for each major set of observations.1 SPECIFICATION OF REQUIREMENTS The requirements for products need to be clearly stated in quantitative terms. Townshend 1992). Many of the requirements of GOFC/GOLD arise from statements of needs derived before the organization was set up (see section 3). In assessing requirements there will always need for a practical concern with what is feasible in technological terms and in terms of resources. Does the failure to reach a given accuracy level or a stated required precision mean that the observations otherwise have no value? Ideally what is needed is a statement of the reduction in value of an observation as its quality declines.

edu/trfic . Similarly.umiacs. Even then unless redundancy is built into the system there may still be gaps in the record as occurred in the mid 1990s for the afternoon AVHRR. The format of data can also hinder its availability. Many users found both the format and projection sufficiently problematic to make them reluctant to move from the lower quality AVHRR products to the MODIS ones.GLCF. because of their distributed nature.2 AVAILABILITY OF OBSERVATIONS Assessing whether observations once collected are available can be a relatively complex issue.40 TOWNSHEND ET AL. The liberalization of copyright and lower costs of Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper data compared with products from earlier Thematic Mappers have greatly increased their use throughout the world (Goward et al..edu . Apart from ensuring that appropriate data standards are adhered to. Whereas there remain significant challenges in the availability of remotely sensed data the difficulties associated with obtaining many in situ data are much greater. different user communities may have very different technological abilities in handling data. Many data are now being made available in alternative formats and projections and software has been provided to facilitate conversion to different projections. 1998). or to provide resources to directly support those laboratories or institutions which can provide large quantities to many users cost-free. First there is the question of whether the observational assets are in place to provide the needed data stream. It should also attempt to capitalize on existing assets such as the Global Land Cover Facility1 and the Tropical Rain Forest Information System in ensuring that improved optimized data products are made available. However it is not until an operational agency takes responsibility that this can be considered certain. One recent example was the supply of MODIS products in HDF format using an integerized sinusoidal (ISIN) projection. access to large number of individual scenes adds up to a very large. many in situ data also have to be paid for and although not necessarily individually expensive may be costly for a comprehensive data set. the organization should work with agencies to ensure that appropriate products are being made available. Attention should also be paid to the burgeoning GRID technologies which with their increasingly powerful middleware tools bring the prospect of providing for the user integrated data systems based on distributed.umd. allotment of resources by the end user. including the provision of high quality metadata. heterogeneous data systems (Foster and Kesselman. Data policy especially as it relates to costs and copyright is one major issue.msu. 5. One of the continuing goals of GOFC/GOLD is to try and ensure the latter happens. There are a wide range of factors which inhibit free unfettered access to useful data products. but attention also needs to be paid to creative mechanisms to provide large quantities in bulk.bsrsi. 2001). data policy including privacy issues as well 1 www. The current US policy of making satellite data available for the incremental costs of reproduction or even free if electronic means are used for acquisition is a worthy goal for all those responsible for distributing environmental data. www. possibly prohibitive. While the pricing is drastically reduced to reflect marginal cost recovery. To ensure that appropriate products are available for all of GOFC/GOLD’s user communities.

Typically these products with a preliminary evaluation are reported upon in the refereed literature. and through the US Global Change Master Directory (NASA 2003) ..MEETING THE GOALS OF GOFC 41 as costs. But other products algorithms have received little consideration. One other issue deserving comment is that of data assimilation to serve the needs of modelers.e. Currently assimilation for terrestrial processes is in its infancy but comparisons with atmospheric and oceanographic domains suggest that it is likely to become much more important in the future and that establishing appropriate procedures for assimilation from the numerous ones available (Liang 2003) is likely to be a future issue for GOFC/GOLD as an organization. there are clearly likely to be benefits from a more organized consideration of the relative merits of different algorithms in particular in relation to their physical soundness. Several prototypes have been created during the last few years that either meet the specifications of GOFC/GOLD or represent a substantial advance towards these specifications. For an algorithm to be regarded as acceptable it should have been subject to independent scientific scrutiny usually through publication in the scientific literature. GOFC needs to set a minimum standard that they are openly available to any user without prejudice. 5. For many products there has been relatively little scrutiny of the algorithms themselves. Where specifications are not fully met then GOFC/GOLD should formally indicate the extent to which the specifications are not met. As yet most of these efforts are at the directory or catalog level rather than at the data base level. The substantial time taken between submission of papers and publication may result in subsequent versions of products being made available before papers first appear. processing and delivery mechanism. especially contextual ones and also in estimating proportional cover estimation (Giglio et al.3 ALGORITHMS/ASSIMILATION ESTABLISHED Raw data sets are often of limited value to most users who require higher level products. one can find out about data. but obtaining them normally requires interactions with multiple providers. . 1999).. as in the case of land cover change.4 RESEARCH OR PROTOTYPE PRODUCTS CREATED Typically the next stage involves the creation of a research product or a prototype of the long-term systematic product. 2001). The Pathfinder experience mentioned above as a precursor to GOFC/GOLD showed the efficacy of the experience gained with producing prototype products and end-to-end acquisition. Some initial steps have been taken and GTOS is increasing awareness of the availability of in situ data through its TEMS data base (GTOS 2003). Although the current emphasis on the quality of the end-product is appropriate. notably in algorithms for active fire detection. 5. i. This requires the use of algorithms to convert the data into geophysical variables. For observational data sets to be regarded as being “available”. This currently is a major issue with respect to the detection of active fires (Ahern et al. and relatively limited subsequent validation is usually carried out. An increasingly contentious issue is how to decide on the relative merits of different products created that nominally meet requirements but which are derived either from different instruments or using different algorithms. For some products there has been active consideration of the algorithms used in generating products.

Additionally there are the practical difficulties of carrying out a comprehensive validation so we understand the reliability of a product for all geographic locations and for all time periods. In this respect it would be advisable if GOFC considered adopting the sort of scheme proposed by the MODIS Land Team (table 2) which represents different levels of effort (Justice 2002). Differences between products may arise from differences in the time of sensing due to considerable diurnal variability of fires. whereas almost all data sets hover somewhere between these two extremes. One way in which comparisons can be carried out is through validation. but as we will see validation itself has its own challenges. 2002). Other differences may arise due to instrument sensitivity or to differences in the performance of the algorithms. Whereas there has been agreement on the approaches that should be adopted a routine set of procedures and implementation of a continuing validation program has yet to be established. but related procedures to establish the quality of in situ observations are also routinely carried out. as described in the next section. In part this relates to the substantial costs of such work but these costs are relatively small compared with the costs of space missions. In many respects the term “validation” is an unfortunate one since it implies that data sets are capable of being categorized as true or untrue. Comparison of satellite products is being continued by the CEOS Cal/Val Working Group on Land Product Validation (Morisette et al. Responsibility for validation lies primarily with the data producer and there is a need for accuracy assessment to be included in the overall costs of the satellite mission. Formal inter-comparisons between different products have been carried out in a number of areas including land cover and NPP..nasa. Validation has always been regarded as a key activity for GOFC and has formed the subject of a number of workshops.umd.gsfc.html). notably for active fires and burn-scars (http://gofcfire. Users of these products need guidance concerning their different capabilities and merits. Where complex models are used with different observational inputs and no universally accepted validation set then deciding on the relative merits of products and what leads to the observed differences can be difficult.gov/MODIS/LAND/VAL/CEOS_WGCV/lai_intercomp.5 VALIDATION AND QUALITY ASSESSMENT PROCEDURES ESTABLISHED AND APPLIED Accuracy assessment of products often called validation is widely recognized as an important component in the development of operational observations.42 TOWNSHEND ET AL. .edu/products/pdfs/events/Lisbon_7_01_ExecSum. Assessing the accuracy of global products is an expensive and time consuming task and there are distinct advantages in international cooperation in terms of cost sharing and increasing the pool of available expertise for data collection (Justice 2002). especially those from satellites.. Nor has there been a structured comparison of the relative merits of different products of the same variable. 1999).pdf) and for LAI (http://modis. IGBP carried out extensive inter-comparisons of different products (Cramer et al. 5.

It has many of the advanced characteristics of MODIS and its observations will be capable of creating many of the latter’s products. may reveal the most relevant guidance of their quality. In this context “field-testing”. VIIRS will be the operational sensor on board the NPOESS platform. For example NDVIs were regularly produced from the near infrared and red bands of the AVHRR sensor and since they were derived from an operational meteorological satellite they can be regarded as being operational in a sense. ESA and NASDA. NASA is launching the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) with the VIIRS sensor on board. For moderate resolution products several of the products specified by GOFC are likely to be generated operationally. 43 Stage 1 Validation: product accuracy has been estimated using a small number of independent measurements obtained from selected locations and time periods. but the quality of this measurement definitely fell below that specified by most users (Justice and Townshend. Many of the observations specified by GOFC/GOLD have been created in prototype form by recent missions of NASA. Stage 3 Validation: product accuracy has been assessed and the uncertainties in the product well established via independent measurements in a systematic and statistically robust way representing global conditions. What one really wishes to know is how much difference a product makes to the end-user. 5. One of the most encouraging recent developments in terms of remote sensing has been the specification of the VIIRS sensor as the successor to the AVHRR (Townshend and Justice. Validation assessed locally under a limited range of geographic conditions for a limited period of time. To ensure continuity between the MODIS of Terra and Aqua and the VIIRS of NPOESS. by incorporating new observational products into actual models or decision-making systems. Reliance on research organizations will not usually lead to sustained observations because their mission to support innovative scientific work. It is therefore important that the observations which have been proven useful by the research agencies be transitioned to the operational domain and that processes are put in place to facilitate that transition (NRC 2003).6 PRODUCT ADOPTED BY OPERATIONAL AGENCY As we have discussed previously. but this does not ensure their long term continuity. since the goal of GOFC is to ensure long term systematic observation this ultimately means that an operational agency has to take on responsibility for the task. Levels of validation (Justice 2002). 2002). 1994). Stage 2 Validation: product accuracy has been assessed over a widely distributed set of locations and time periods Validation assessed over a significant range of geographic conditions and for multiple time periods and seasons. There are varying degrees to which we may consider a product being adopted by an operational agency. Validation assessed over the full range of global conditions for all time periods. However the environmental data products currently . Specifically we need to consider whether a product is adopted which is better than nothing but does not meet the requirements of GOFC/GOLD or whether the product meets specifications.MEETING THE GOALS OF GOFC Table 2. Validation is not the ultimate way of assessing the usefulness of a given set of observations.

44 TOWNSHEND ET AL. It is clear that substantial advances have been made in recent years. Ideally this also should be carried out by an operational agency. the NRC (NRC 2001) has identified land use dynamics as one of the emerging key research domains as a result of significant advances in the community readiness through increased observational capacity. In addition periodic scientific assessment of the results is also necessary. Similarly. 2000).7 ROUTINE QUALITY ASSURANCE AND VALIDATION Quality assurance and continuing validation need to be a continuing effort if the long term internal consistency of products and their relation to defined standards is to be maintained. In its report on Grand Challenges in Environmental Science. Down the Earth (NRC . Agreement by agencies to collect observations operationally unfortunately does not guarantee that this will in practice be done. Neither the GCOS Surface Network (GSN) for measuring temperature nor the GCOS Upper Air Network (GUAN) has as yet achieved satisfactory performance despite formal longterm commitments made by national governments (GCOS 2003). specified may not have the long term internal consistency needed to monitor trends over extended time periods (NRC 1999. Examples of the required approach can be found in a critical review of measurements for long-term climate monitoring (Karl 1996). However it needs to be recognized that although they will be generated regularly they may not have the long term internal consistency needed for detecting long-term change (NRC 2000). 5. The GOFC/GOLD effort has stimulated advances in both science and applications. Analogies of the way in which this is might be conducted are shown in the way that the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting monitors the performance of the GCOS Upper Air Network. hence the recognition of the important role of observations to support LCLUC research on two important fronts: research and natural resource management/policy.8 ARE FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS NEEDED TO MEET REQUIREMENTS? Operational products rarely meet all requirements so there will be a need periodically to assess the extent to which observational products meet evolving requirements and the feasibility of improving them. 2002). The experience of the Global Climate Observing System working through the international structures of the WMO in gaining agreements from nations to collect key observations is cautionary. the NRC report. Figure 2 summarizes the extent to which these goals have been met using a simple coding scheme to indicate whether substantive progress has been made for each of the stages outlined in section 5. 6 Progress in Meeting Our Goals As previously stated the principal goals for GOFC/GOLD were set out approximately 4 to 5 years ago. Few if any of the boxes would have been colored when the planning documents were first created. In this sense the whole process is a continuing iterative one with few observational types reaching the specifications needed by all users. In some cases there is already a commitment to long term operational measurement and product generation as a result of some properties being accepted as environmental data records for NPOESS (Townshend and Justice. 5.

insect and disease. There may be additional obstructions to use caused by charging policies and copyright . p. 2003 Canadian Forest Service. p. Edmonton Another key issue. that the data sets have been subsetted so as not overwhelm the modest computing facilities of many users. Landsat. is the steps needed to ensure that the various products are made available to users in product delivery systems suited to their requirements and their technological level. Fine Resolution Cover Products GOFC/GOLD Products GOFC Requir Observ Algorit Prototy Assess Operati QA & Spec. that products are available in easily readable formats. p. international agencies. Among the many challenges are the provision of sufficient bandwidth for users. HRV P.d.11 CNES WS App 3. Landsat. in particular the UN Food and Agriculture Organization are beginning to develop cooperative observation-intensive approaches to their operational mission for collecting data on the state of the world’s forests through the Forest Resource Assessment. Figure 2a.16 Y Y N N N N N N May 28th.11 CNES WS App 3. that the projections are compatible with commonly available software. ement ations hms pe ment onal Val CNES WS App 3.11 Y Y Landsat. Moreover.MEETING THE GOALS OF GOFC 45 2002) has pointed to new and increased opportunities for the use of geographic information to support sustainable development. Progress in meeting the goals of GOFC/GOLD (Dark gray indicates substantive progress. beyond the scope of this discussion. HRV Y N (available regionally) N (available regionally) N (available regionally) N N N Iterate Land Cover Classification Land cover change (RAD) Land cover change (harvesting. HRV Y. regeneration) Forest Cover fragmentation N Y Y P N N N Y P P N N N CNES WS App 3. .b. Simply because archives exist holding data does not ensure that users will be able to utilize the products. p. light gray equals partial progress and white means no progress yet.c.

Edmonton . DMSP. 2003 Canadian Forest Service. p. VIRS P Y QA & Val P Iterate Active fire detection daily (polar) Active fire detection diurnal cycle (geostationery+polar) Burnt area N FIRE IT web site Y Y Y P Y N N CNES WS App 4. GLC 2000 MODIS product P Y (VIIRS EDR) N N CNES WS App 4. Edmonton Fire Products GOFC/GOLD Products GOFC Spec. AATSR. GBA2000.36 Y Y Y Emission product suite Fire danger rating FIRE IT web site Y P ? Globscar. AVHRR. CNES WS App 4. Coarse resolution land cover products GOFC/GOLD Products GOFC Spec. 2003 Canadian Forest Service.34 Y Y P N N N Y Y N (available regionally) N N N N May 28th. p.33 CNES WS App 4. p. p. VIRS GOES.31 Y MODIS/ Vegetatio n/ AVHRR MODIS/ Vegetatio n/ AVHRR P (MODIS 250m) Y MODIS standard product. Requir Observ Algorit Prototy Assess Operati ement ations hms pe ment onal QA & Val Iterate Land cover classification Forest density (continuous fields) Land cover change (indicator) CNES WS App 4.46 TOWNSHEND ET AL. MODIS Regional N (available regionally) N (available regionally) P N N N N N N N FIRE IT web site Y ? ? N N N N May 28th. p.35 Requir Observ Algorit Prototy Assess Operati ement ations hms pe ment onal Y Y Y MODIS.

To achieve the goals of GOFC/GOLD the research community has several key responsibilities. space agencies and data providers to ensure that the objectives of GOFC/GOLD are met. Considerable efforts are needed to ensure the availability of products to user communities. This book highlights many of the most important of these: 1) Carrying out research to improve our understanding of the nature and drivers of changes in land cover. agricultural development in arid lands (Hole and Smith) urbanization both locally (Seto et al. Considerable improvements have been made in most of the various stages which need to be completed to achieve these goals but in reality there are few products where an operational commitment has been made.40 CNES WS App 4.38 CNES WS App 4. woodland expansion into grasslands (Wessman et al. Creating improved models of land use and cover . tropical deforestation (Skole et al. 2003 Canadian Forest Service. Its principal goal is to ensure the long term consistency of key terrestrial products. p. MODIS N P N N N Y N P N N N NA May 28th.35 CNES WS App 4. ement ations hms pe ment onal Val CNES WS App 4.MEETING THE GOALS OF GOFC 47 Biophysical Products GOFC/GOLD Products GOFC Requir Observ Algorit Prototy Assess Operati QA & Spec. MODIS GOES P ?VIIRS N N Y Y Y P ?VIIRS N N Y Y Y AVHRR. p.41 Y Y Y MODIS P ?VIIRS N Iterate LAI FPAR PAR NPP Biomass N Y Y Y AVHRR. p.) and the multiple roles of fire (Csiszar et al.). ).) and globally (Elvidge et al. operational data users. Edmonton 7 Conclusions GOFC/GOLD has made considerable progress in laying out its requirements to meet the needs of its user communities. p. Its focus so far has been on land cover characterization and a variety of fire products. Results of such work in this volume include the mapping of desertification (Prince). Continued and concerted effort will be needed by the science community.). The ultimate objective is to ensure operational integrated satellite and ground based observing systems are put in place to provide the data and information needed for an improved understanding of the earth system and effective management of its natural resources.39 CNES WS App 4. p.

Ojima Land Use and Climate. A. Anthoni. Davis. 96pp. S. J.” Professional Geographer 53(2): 275-289. Belward.. Grateful acknowledgment is also given to the Canadian Space Agency and Canadian Forest Service for their support. policy or management communities. Denning and J. H. M. T. Vesala. 8 References Ahern. Cihlar. Justice (2001). Ottawa. Wilson and S. D. DeFries. P.). S. Global and Regional Fire Monitoring from Space. Pilegaard. K. S. Olson.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82: 2415-2434.. C.) and biodiversity (Hansen et al. Environment and Natural Resources Series. Ackowledgement. Several case studies in this volume highlight the importance of the scientific rigor needed to design such systems (McGuire et al.. Estes and K. O. Churchill. T. Krankina et al. “The IGBP-DIS Global 1-Km land-cover data set DISCover: a project overview. Janetos. Ahern. Justice. K.. Yasuoka and Z. W. B. J. Katul. G. Law. Davis. Gu. climate (Bonan et al. Zhu (1999). Munger. Above all this volume demonstrates that improved environmental observation systems must be under-pinned by sound scientific research and that they must be designed and implemented not simply as passive recorders of change but to enable users. J. Walker. Rome. CCRS. . V. Goldammer and C. K. to address questions on the nature.) and the challenges especially in developing countries (e. cause. J. J. Seto Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Change. R. B. L. R. A. G. Falge. A. D. J. the hydrological cycle (Mustard and Fisher). Gosz (2002). Bonan. These include the global carbon cycle (Houghton et al.). Bernhofer. E. impacts of land cover change and the ways in which all of these change in the future. R.). Terrestrial Carbon Observation: the Ottawa assessment of requirements. Valenti. Malingreau. A. A Strategy for Global Observations of Forest Cover. Running. A. W. X. 2) Scoping and setting up initial regional observing systems to ensure both the gathering and use of data. R. S. E.303 pp Baldocchi. This volume. Y.g. P. (Rindfuss et al. G.. Malhi. J. C. D. Hollinger. M. Meyers.. J. Schmid. “From land cover to land use: a methodology for efficient land use mapping over large areas. A. SPB Academic Publishing.. G... Belward. Y. M. This volume. B. “FLUXNET: A new tool to study the temporal and spatial variability of ecosystemscale carbon dioxide. Coe and D.. Brown.-P. status and next steps. Loveland.). water vapor and energy flux densities.48 TOWNSHEND ET AL.. 2. O. Wofsy (2001). S. F.). Maiden. D. change is also of high importance if we are to understand the drivers and impacts of change (Brown et al. J. W. C. whether in the scientific.) and the complex interactions between land cover/use and population (Rindfuss et al. Fuentes. Seto et al. The authors wish to acknowledge the role that NASA and in particular the LCLUC program have played in supporting GOFC/GOLD and its regional network activities. Turner II et al. D. T. Goldstein. S. R. The Hague. Sader et al. 3) Assessing the impacts of land cover change on the environment. P. Skole. and L. 4) Linking the physical changes we observe to the human populations and their activities is also essential if we are to understand past and future trajectories of change. Kline (1999). S. (Laporte et al. Cihlar. Netherlands.” Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 65(9): 10131020. Jansen (2001). J. T. Lee. Oechel. Verma. Food and Agriculture Organization. D. Taylor. Manson and K.

The Grid: Blueprint for a New Computing Infrastructure. D. R. GCOS-82. Churkina. Roy. Global Observations of Forest Cover: Ottawa Workshop Report.” International Journal of Wildland Fire 12.” Earth Observer 5(14): 12-13. Mayaux and J.. and R. P. T. Morgan Kaufmann. Townshend and M. Kicklighter. M.. Bergen. Goetz. Lin. Burgan. V. Goward. N. Turner “Land Use Change and Biodiversity: A Synthesis of Rates and Consequences during the Period of Satellite Imagery. J. (2003). D. L. 2/9/03. Gregoire (1998).(3/4). J. C. Flannigan. IGBP (1997). C. R. F. Global Climate Observing System. 85pp. This volume. . G. FAO Forestry Paper.. Switzerland. http://www. C. Smith. A. J. This volume. “Comparing global models of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP): overview and key results. O.-M. R. FAO. J. 2-4. Justice (1999). Duane Northern Eurasia: Remote Sensing of Boreal Forests in Selected Regions. and C.550 pp Loveland. T.. Forest Resources Assessment 1990: Survey of tropical forest cover and study of change processes. “Satellite-based Fire Monitoring: current capabilities and future directions. J. L. Giglio.701 pp GCOS (2003).. R.” Global Change Biology 5(Suppl. Nemry. C. Moore III.. W. Thompson (2001). Liang. D. G. S. S. L. M.” International Journal of Remote Sensing 15(17): 3621-3639. “Global data sets from the AVHRR: lessons learnt for global remote sensing. Chen. D. FAO (2001). R. C. Oetter. (1996). N. T. Hammond. D. G. Csiszar. G. Yasuoka. B.” International Journal of Remote Sensing 20(10): 1947-1985. C. Justice. Laporte. D. Imhoff. T. S. C. A. P. Wang. Forestry Paper. J. Cohen. G. Canada.” Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 16911-16925. J. “The 1 km AVHRR global data set: first stages in implementation. Bondeau. Ottawa. B. 41. FAO (1996). DeFries. Masek.jsp. 479pp. San Francisco.fao. P. Sun. Ruimy and A. Milesi and R. T.” Special Issue on Landsat 7. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000. Kasischke. 1995) pp Krankina. Janetos. K.. J. Masek. (1991). G. Justice. Eidenshink. Foster. R. T.. New York. Csiszar (2003). (2002). L. W. Version 3. O. Hole. R. This volume. A. H. A. J. J.. Lemoigne. Smith Arid Land Agriculture in Northeastern Syria: Will this be a tragedy of the commons? This volume. Rome. The Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for Climate in support of the UNFCC. John Wiley. McRae. Q. Giglio. and J. Wagner. J. C. Asner The Effects of Land Use and Management on the Global Carbon Cycle. 124. L. A. Brown. Ryzner. G. O.. Hansen (1999). Global Observations of Forest Cover: Coarse Resolution Products Design Strategy. 23pp. Karl. 140. O. B. Nemani Urbanization. 44pp. C. nos. Seeing the forest among the trees: The case for wholistic forest use. H. Dordrecht.(reprinted from Climate Change Vol 31.. Forest Resources Assessment 1990: Global Synthesis. Rome. Ahern (1997). Kasischke and M. S. TEMS: Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring Sites. L. S. H. Quantitative Remote sensing of Land Surfaces. “Continuous fields of vegetation characteristics at the global scale at 1km resolution. Fortunat Joos and G. F. O. This volume. V. Kharuk. D. N. C. and A. Justice. Polestar Book Publishers. DeFries and W.org/gtos/tems/index. C. S. J. C. Y. R. A. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Defries. I. US EROS Data Center. L. 38pp. P. 152pp. Conard. Schloss (1999). Stockholm IGBP Report. D.. M. W. R. Frost. Cochrane. E. CEOS Pilot Project: Global Observations of Forest Cover (GOFC).” This volume. Faundeen (1994). FAO (1995). Gill and I. Y. D.” International Journal of Remote Sensing 15(17): 3443-3462. Irons and R. Shugart. O. and J. “The Landsat 7 mission: terrestial research for the 21st century.pp. Houghton. W.. E. The Miombo Network: framework for a terrestrial study of land use and land cover change in the Miombo ecosystems of Central Africa. A. T. Polestar Book Publishers. G. P. Smith. Jantz. I. 109pp. Kluvier Academic publishers. 1): 1-15. South Dakota. Lund. Rome. 130. D. H. Stocks and D.3. S. Williams.MEETING THE GOALS OF GOFC 49 Cramer. R. This volume.309 pp Hansen. M. McGuire. Vogelmann. R. Seto. Lynham. GTOS (2003). K. Honzak Towards an Operational Forest Monitoring System for Central Africa. H. “MODIS Science Team Meeting Land Discipline Summary. Geneva. J. Long term climate monitoring by the Global Climate Observing System. M.. Kendall and C. J. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. CCRS. Divers and M. Verbyla Land Use and Fires. Remote Sensing of Environment 78(1-2): 3-12. A.. Kesselman (1998). Rupp. C. “Evaluation of global fire detection algorithms using simulated AVHRR infrared data. Sioux Falls. Elvidge. B. Ontario. F. Townshend (1994). B. E. Sutton. Justice. Elvidge.

W. 29pp. T. W. Moore III.” Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing 57(11): 1453-1463. T. J. Entwisle and S. GAP Analysis: A Landscape Approach to Biodiversity Planning. Washington DC. NRC (1999). Curtis E. L. Moran and B. Idaho. O. J. Crutzen and J. P. Ohlen. Kuhlbusch. D. Zhuang Canada and Alaska.. E. O. Turner II. Melillo. McRae. R.633 pp Perlin. J. W. L. Setzer. Nyland. Yang and J. Land satellite information in the next decade. J. http://gcmd. Dargaville.. A.. B. Tucker (1993). C. Kimball. J. T. F. Janetos (1997). J. NRC (2003). Improved Global Data for Land Applications: A Proposal for a new High Resolution Data Set. C. Kaufmann Changes in Land Cover and Land Use in the Pearl River Delta. T. T. Scott... American Society of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. D. J. B. This volume. Moscow. No. M. Committee on Earth Studies.445 pp Prince. A. Mapping Desertification in Southern Africa. atmospheric and climatic importance of vegetation fires. Cochrane. Reed. Sweden. Taylor (1998). Davis and . J. T. C. NASA (2003). National Biological Service. M. National Academy Press. Morisette. J. Matricardi. Salas and V. D. A. E. Charlotte. D. Turner II. Pedlowski and D. Issues in the Integration of Research and Operational Satellite Systems for Climate Research. Ward and J. Fire in the environment: the ecological. L. (1992). L. S. Chowdhury. “Development of a land-cover characteristics database for the conterminous U. D. Chomentowski. F. K. Chomentowski..C. C. “Towards operational monitoring of terrestrial systems by moderate resolution imaging. National Academy Press. Albini. (1996). Justice. Turner II Forest Change and Human Driving Forces in Central America. Panel on Climate Observing Systems. J. A forest journey. IGBP Report. J. Quantification of fire characteristics from local to global scales. Tucker (1995). McDonald. D. J. R. M. S. W. R. Rindfuss. Chapin III. McGuire.S. K. Seto. 51pp. O. O. R. Loveland. Warnatz (1993). D. Washington D. C. M. G. Salas and C.. . Mustard. K. J. J. National Academies Press. 2/9. Skole. New York. CNES. L.. Fisher Land Use and Hydrology. Wiley & Sons: 329-343pp. Washington DC. Global Change Master Directory. Matthews. Goldammer.” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 2(2-3): 157-175. This volume. A.. Andreae. M. NRC (2000). R. L. Tear. F. D. L.. II Implementation. (1996). Washington DC. Skole.. F.” Remote Sensing of Environment 83(1-2): 77-96. E. Proceedings of the ASPRS/GAP Symposium. P. Walsh Land Cover/Use and Population. Understanding the FRA 2000. L. R. O. Skole. “A land cover change monitoring program: Strategy for an International effort.. F. E. J. R. Merchant (2000). Schneider and B. National Academy Press. Justice (2002). D.50 TOWNSHEND ET AL. Sader. Desch. B. Z. Stockholm. Kimble Pattern to process in the Amazon region: measuring forest conversion. This volume. This volume. Lobert. The NASA Landsat Pathfinder Humid Tropical Deforestation Project. Brown. J. G. R. Paris.. D. Flannigan. O. and T. D.. S. F. S. W. W. G. “A framework for the validation of MODIS Land products. M. Ohlen and J. G. M. A. Woodcock and R. C. J.. R. and C.” Remote Sensing of Environment 83: 351-359.” International Journal of Remote Sensing 21: 1303-1330. D. North Carolina. This volume. Ed. Skole. France. Brown. F. J. Global Observation of Forest Cover: Fine Resolution Data and Product Design Strategy Report of a Workshop. Climate Research Committee. M. Loveland. A. Justice. A. Malingreau. Justice (2002). “Development of a global land cover characteristics data base and IGBP DISCover from 1 km AVHRR data. D. Bell. regeneration and degradation. Verbyla and Q. V. W. Virginia. MA. Kasischke. L.nasa. R. China. Cambridge.. World Resources Institute. Levine. B. E. R. International Geosphere Biosphere Programme. R. 158 pppp. Zhu. (2001). Harvard University Press. H. C. A. Rindfuss. 20. Townshend. J. E. Kicklighter. Lawrence.” Science 260: 1905-1910. Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems. The role of wood in the development of civilization. This volume. Satellite observations of the Earths environment: accelerating the transition of research to operations. Townshend. R.gov/. W. G. Tysons Corner. This volume. C. “Tropical deforestation and habitat fragmentation in the Amazon: Satellite data from 1978 to 1988. W. Merchant.. J. Myneni. Apps. A. R. S. L. Brown (1991). S. D. Townshend. Entwisle Linking Pixels and People. R. and C. C. New York. Vitousek. O. Walsh. Privette and C.gsfc.. D. B. W. Havlicek.. S. Climate Research Committee. Townshend and A. J. R. Radke. P. L. J.83-89pp. McGraw-Hill. Silviculture: Concepts and Applications. Kurz. (1991). E. Skole.

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Townshend, J. R. G., C. O. Justice, D. Skole, J.-P. Malingreau, J. Cihlar, P. Teillet, F. Sadowski and S. Ruttenberg (1994). “The 1 km AVHRR global data set: needs of the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme.” International Journal of Remote Sensing 15(17): 3417-3441. Turner II, B. L., D. Skole, S. Sanderson, G. Fischer, L. Fresco and R. Leemans (1995). Land-use and landcover change: science/research plan, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme, Stockholm and Geneva, IGBP, 35. Turner II, B. L., E. Moran and R. Rindfuss Integrated Land-Change Science and Its Relevance to the Human Sciences. This volume. Wessman, C. A., S. Archer, L. C. Johnson and G. P. Asner Woodland Expansion in U.S. Grasslands: Assessing Land-Cover Change and Biogeochemical Impacts. This volume.

SECTION II: INTRODUCTION OBSERVATIONS OF LCLUC IN REGIONAL CASE STUDIES DAVID L. SKOLE, MARK A. COCHRANE

This section presents a series of regional case studies using remote sensing measurements and integrative analyses across a range of land use and cover change situations around the world. The knowledge derived from these cases is invaluable for building regional models of LCLUC and as a foundation for calibration and validation of global LCLUC remote-sensing products. The papers here frame key driving forces by linking observations to processes. Such regionalized case studies are critically important in refining our understanding of the details of LCLUC and, ultimately, for linking research to applications, problem solving and policy. Regional case studies are important ways to develop the spatial and temporal detail necessary to model land use and cover change as an agent of global change. Unlike climate studies which have typically been global in scale, understanding the dynamics of land use and cover change requires finer resolution in time and space. The development of dynamic models of land use and cover change involves a much closer examination of fine scale processes, and the relationship between use and cover. Moreover, land use and cover dynamics have important spatial attributes that are only revealed at finer scales. Most previous global efforts to model land cover change have been spatially and temporally aggregate in nature (c.f. 0.5 - 4.0 ; decadal time steps). Research has focused on biogeochemistry (e.g. carbon flux), changes in ecosystem metabolism (e.g. NPP) or changes in water and energy balance (e.g. albedo or latent and sensible heat flux). Global ecosystem models have typically introduced land cover change as a simple forcing function derivative of the total area of land cover change. For example, most models use aggregated deforestation rates to drive carbon flux or changes in continental NPP. When a spatial context has been introduced into models, it has generally been done to treat the large-area variations in biomass classes found on land cover maps or for connectivity to basin-scale hydrology. These models have been invaluable for ascertaining the global-scale significance of land use and land cover change for forcing fluxes of radiatively important gases, climate forcing from land surface changes, or biome-wide ecosystem response to climate change. Arguably, the scale selected has been consistent with the questions they pose. But this generalized picture of global change, with respect to land use and cover change, is far from complete. Models have not explicitly treated the spatially varying landscape mosaic left behind by a range of anthropogenic and natural disturbances acting simultaneously and interactively within a locale. As a consequence, much of the research and modeling is undertaken at a scale that overlooks the actual processes associated with land use and land cover change. To gain insight into the land use-land cover relationship several fine scale factors need to be included, such as: interaction between different types of land uses, spatial pattern and landscape patch relationships, the role of social factors at household to community levels, inter-annual variation in rates of change, and intraannual variations in biophysical characteristics of cover. As the papers in this section
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demonstrate, through focused regional case studies, it is possible to make accurate measurements of the magnitude and spatial pattern of land cover change, and also elucidate the important processes that are involved. The collection of papers prepared for this section also provides an excellent cross section of approaches and methods for linking process level LCLUC dynamics with remotely sensed observations. The notion that one can meld these two types of observational data has captivated the research community for some time now, and it is apparent that groundbreaking work is now underway to actually develop and use what has only been discussed elsewhere. One of the more important framing concepts behind all of the papers is that which Turner and colleagues have termed socializing the pixel (Geoghegan et al., 1998). This conceptualization has been one of the more important methodological issues in current LCLUC research, and it has guided the development of a variety of specific approaches, many of which are illustrated in the papers for this section. In another way, this chapter lays out a pattern-to-process framework for LCLUC research, heavily grounded on a foundation of direct observations across many scales and coupled to detailed understanding of the processes which drive land use to result in the observed land cover changes. Whether under a rubric of socializing-the-pixel or pattern-to-process, the work demonstrated in these chapters is leading to enhanced social science methods through improved spatial descriptions of landscapes and, in turn, enhanced biophysical observations of landscape change derived through an improved understanding of the human drivers. In this way, the spatially-mapped landscape becomes an important attribute, which defines the biophysical context to which the social context can be related. The comparison of the frontier case studies (Sader et al.; Laporte et al.; Krankina et al.; and McGuire et al.) and non frontier case studies (Seto et al.; Samek et al.) is an excellent portrayal of the differential relationships between the social and physical dimensions, and between use and cover relationships. In the former cases, socio-economic factors of use drive cover outcomes directly – for example with deforestation processes. In the latter cases, long histories of rice and other cultivation have resulted in tightly coupled physical-social landscapes, where the spatial configuration of human uses of land and the spatial configuration of the physical land cover are interrelated. The cases from the extensively managed grasslands in Africa and the Middle East and the intensively managed systems in the United States (Prince, Hole and Smith, and Wessman et al.), on another hand, portray the dynamics of changes in use, as well as intensification and management. For these regions, land cover change is not as dramatic as in forested ecosystems but the demonstrated changes in ecosystem composition, structure and potential utility of these lands are profound. The analyses of Skole et al. identify the close linkages between various components of the overall disturbance regime in Amazonia, with measurements being made of both direct conversion and more subtle degradation. The degree to which these emerge from different agents and also interact synergistically, for example the interrelationship between logging, deforestation and fire, provides important insights for modeling of land cover and land use change. These studies show important differences in the dynamics of land cover and land use change (LCLUC) from place to place, without appearing to be idiosyncratic. Frontier areas are characterized by inter-annual changes in cover driven by land use change. Older regions, where the frontier gives way to more anthropogenically-

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dominated landscapes, landscape dynamics are dominated by inter-annual variation in land uses, and intra-annual changes in cover characteristics. The notion of a tightly coupled human-natural landscape emerges, and casts aside the view of the unidirectional social “driver” causing the physical “impact”, which seems to prevail in so much of the current global change literature. One of the key contributions made by direct observations of the Earth is an improved understanding of pattern and the spatial context of LCLUC. More than simply providing a basis for disaggregation, and hence improved quantification and measurement (indeed an important factor in its own right, when much of the basic measurements need to be made), spatially-explicit analyses provide vastly improved understanding of how landscapes evolve over time by incorporating the spatial interrelations between types of land uses, the agents of land use change, and the effects of interrelated disturbance on land cover. It may be argued that both the social sciences and the physical sciences have not emphasized the important interaction between landscape pattern and social systems over time, and hence, the relationship of past and current patterns of LCLUC to future trajectories. Remote sensing clearly provides a useful dataset in this regard. The coupling of remote sensing observations to socioeconomic analysis of LCLUC is a way to capture the physical landscape and the patterns of transformation in space and time. Lastly, one of the more important and under-examined issues is the relative roles of natural vs. social partitioning of the landscape. By placing human factors within the study of the global environment, we may yet come to know how the interactions between social institutions, which partition the landscape through title and ownership, and nature, which does so through topography, biogeochemistry and climate, play out across the landscape and over time. Analyses or models, which lack such a fundamental use-to-cover component, are incomplete and, due to their missing processes, incapable of providing credible forecasting and prediction of LCLUC. Regionalized case study assessments, of the kind presented in the following chapters, start to address such deficiencies and bring us ever closer to a true understanding of our evolving planet.

CHAPTER 4 FOREST CHANGE AND HUMAN DRIVING FORCES IN CENTRAL AMERICA STEVEN A. SADER1, RINKU ROY CHOWDHURY2, LAURA C. SCHNEIDER2, B.L. TURNER II2 Department of Forest Management,University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469-5755 Graduate School of Geography and Marsh Institute, Clark University, Worchester, MA 01610 USA
2 1

1 Introduction Three research projects, supported by the NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change (LCLUC) Science Program have been conducted in the Central America and Mexico (Mesoamerica) region. The first two projects were conducted in Northern Guatemala (Maya Biosphere Reserve) and the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region (SYPR) of Mexico. The third project, focused on the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, had broader coverage over the entire Central American region under a cooperative research memorandum of understanding between NASA and the environmental ministers of the seven Central American countries. This chapter will begin with an overview of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor concept and the status of forest protection and forest changes using data analyzed for sample sites distributed throughout the region. Given the importance of protected areas in the region and the threats facing them, the bulk of the chapter will address the Northern Guatemala and SYPR sites located in and around two major Biosphere Reserves. Both of these case studies utilized time-series Landsat imagery combined with socio-economic household surveys and landscape level analysis to examine human driving forces that influenced forest and land cover/use changes. This research demonstrates that medium spatial resolution satellite imagery is well suited for monitoring tropical forests and remote biological reserves (Sader et al., 2001a; Turner et al., 2001).

2 Significance of the Mesoamerican Region The Mesoamerican region covers approximately 768,990 square kilometers, stretching from the southern Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico through Panama (Figure 1). The Isthmus of Central America is comprised of more than 20 distinct ecological life zones (Holdridge et al., 1971) ranging from coral reefs, coastal wetlands, and Atlantic lowland wet forests to pine savannas, Pacific dry forests, and montane cloud forests. This land bridge connecting the North and South American continents contains only one-half of a percent of the world’s total land surface, yet its geographic position and variety of ecosystems combine to harbor about 7 percent of the planet’s biological diversity (Miller et al., 2001). The region’s globally significant biodiversity, combined with its small area and high degree of threat in terms of habitat loss, has prompted the conservation community to designate the region as a biological, as well as a
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deforestation “Hot Spot”, to be prioritized for conservation planning and management (Achard et al., 2002; Wilson, 2002).

Figure 1. 2001 MODIS 250m calibrated radiance mosaic of the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico and Central America with 1996 Japanese Earth Resource Satellite (JERS-1) L-band synthetic aperture radar mosaic (inset) showing the location of the Calakmul and Maya Biosphere Reserves.

The region’s rapid population growth, human migration, and slash-and-burn agriculture have had detrimental effects on what forest remains. The 1980-1990 annual rates of deforestation in Central America and Mexico were among the highest in the world (FAO, 1993) and high rates of deforestation continued into the 1990’s (FAO, 1999; Sader et al., 1997, 2001a and 2001b; Sanchez et al., 1999; Roy Chowdury and Schneider, 2003). Forest fragmentation and loss of critical natural habitats (Sanchez et al., 1999; Sader et al., 2001b) present some urgency for the development of conservation management strategies, perhaps best achieved through a cooperative research agenda and scientific database for continuous monitoring of the Central American region (Miller et al., 2001). 2.1 MESOAMERICAN BIOLOGICAL CORRIDOR: A VISION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HABITAT PROTECTION Reserves and protected areas form the foundation for conservation strategy across the tropics. The effectiveness of these reserves in conserving biodiversity and landscape integrity relies on their proper design and management, as well as their protection and legal enforcement (Hansen and Rotella, 2002). Often, designated protected areas suffer from lack of connectivity with other vital habitats and protected reserves, lack of protection enforcement, land degradation in surrounding areas, as well as an incomplete

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understanding of the drivers of that degradation (Sader et al., 1997; Liu et al., 2001; Hansen and Rotella, 2002). Large forest patches and core areas protect some of the most vulnerable plant and animal species that cannot survive in smaller patches and fragmented forest landscapes. Forest edges are more vulnerable to fire and effects of predators on nests or habitats of interior-dwelling species (Hunter, 1996; Noss and Csuti, 1997). Loss of connectivity between forest patches can limit migration of species. Monitoring of protected areas and characterizing the human and ecologically controlled processes in which they exist are crucial in conservation planning. (Kristensen et al., 1997; Bruner et al., 2001). The origin of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC) concept dates back to the 1980s, when the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and Dr. Archie Carr III of the Caribbean Conservation Corporation joined forces to investigate the possibility of establishing a natural corridor to link protected areas throughout the range of the Florida Panther (Puma concolor coryi). The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) provided funds under the project known as Paseo Pantera to strengthen the management of protected areas throughout Central America (Carr 1992). The MBC was officially established in 1997 by the presidents of the seven member countries as a crucial environmental region with a vision of integrating conservation, sustainable use, and biodiversity within the framework of sustainable economic development. The Central American Commission on the Environment and Development (CCAD), including the environmental ministers of Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama, was established in 1989 and is responsible for coordinating regional environmental activities in Central America (CCAD, 1989). The CCAD and the region’s governments have endorsed the MBC concept and there are major donor-funded activities (e.g. World Bank, Global Environment Facility, United Nations Development Program, and USAID, among others) with various goals and commitments to the Corridor concept. 2.2 REGIONAL MESOAMERICA ANALYSIS OF FOREST COVER AND CHANGE IN

As mentioned earlier, an important function of the MBC is maintaining the connectivity of natural habitats throughout the region (Carr, 1992). Currently, the MBC is a network of braided natural habitats including hundreds of strips, many only 2 or 3 km wide, connecting large parks and reserves and small protected areas (Miller et al., 2001). What is the status of forest cover in the MBC? Are the national parks and biological reserves being threatened by deforestation? In an attempt to answer these questions, one of the early goals of the NASA-LCLUC Mesoamerican Biological Corridor project was to determine how much forest was contained within the MBC and how much forest clearing had occurred over the past decade (late 1980s to late 1990s). 2.2.1 Methods A vector layer, acquired from the Environment and Natural Resources Ministry of El Salvador, containing polygons representing existing and proposed protected areas within the seven Central American nations provided the units of analysis for investigating changes in forest cover within the MBC. The analysis was based on sample sites across the region, represented by Landsat Worldwide Reference System (WRS) Scenes. The Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scene locations encompassed

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approximately 25 percent of the Central America region and 33 percent of the all of the MBC administrative units in the region. The spatial distribution of the parks, reserves and other designated corridor units in the MBC, along with the WRS locations of the Landsat TM study sites, are presented in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Regional study sites for mapping and change detection efforts in Central America. The study sites correspond to a sample of Landsat WRS scenes across the region, and are shown in relation to the protected and proposed units of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (adapted from Sader et. al., 2001b).

For each site, land cover was classified using both Level I (4 classes: forest, shrub, non-forest, and water) and nested Level II (ranging from 15 to 25 classes) classification schemes. Land cover classification techniques made use of a combination of unsupervised clustering, supervised training using reference data from the World Bank Ecosystems Map of Central America, cluster busting, and post-classification editing. All classifications were based on Landsat-5 TM data. The change detection results were generated by a simple post-classification comparison of two dates (late 1980’s to late

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90’s) of Level I classifications for each site, reporting change from forest to non-forest only (Sader et al., 2001b). 2.2.2 Forest cover and change in the 1990s Among the TM study sites (Figure 2), the forest cover ranged from 13.6% (Path 19/Row 50) to 82.6% (Path 16/Row 50) of the total land area classified. In the mid to late 1990s, the average forest cover over all study areas was 57.3% (1996-98). The time periods for the change detection analysis varied from 7 to 11 years, with the median period being 10 years. Annual forest clearing rates ranged from 0.16% (site 16 / 50) to 1.28% (Path 19/Row 50). The mean clearing rate for the TM study sites combined was 0.58% per year. Annual rates of clearing were calculated by the following formula:

C t Ft x 100 Yt

(Equation 1)

where Ct is the area cleared during time period t; Ft is the area of forest remaining at the beginning of time period t, and Yt is the number of years in time period t. For reporting purposes, the original administrative units of the MBC were grouped into five zones (Table 1). The total area of forest cover, the percentage of forest cover, and annual forest clearing rates were calculated for each MBC zone. The forest cover ranged from 57.2% in undeclared protected areas to 93.8% in current parks and reserves (mean = 80.4%). For comparison, only 30.8% of the total land area classified outside the MBC zones was under forest cover. Among the five MBC zones, annual forest clearing rates were lowest in designated extractive reserves (0.15%) and clearing was highest in areas proposed for addition to the protected corridor (0.57%). New protected areas, parks and reserves, and protected areas without declaration all had similar clearing rates of 0.22%, 0.25%, and 0.26% per year, respectively. Forest clearing outside of the MBC zones was substantially higher (1.4% per year) than the areas within the MBC (0.26% per year). The higher percentages of forest cover remaining and the lower deforestation rates for parks and reserves may be an artifact, in part, of the conditions that led to the original designation of these areas as reserves. For example, they tend to be the most remote forests furthest from population centers, often occupying steeper slopes and soils less suitable for agricultural uses. However, the lowest deforestation rates in extractive reserves likely reflects both historical and present day reliance on non-timber forest products, practiced by local inhabitants, (for example, chicle, xate and allspice collection from the Maya Biosphere Reserve) as a principle source of income and an alternative to swidden cultivation that correlates with higher deforestation rates (Schwartz, 1990; 1998). Although this study indicates that protection status affords some conservation of forest cover in the MBC (80% forest cover inside compared to 31% outside), there are geographic locations in the region and some zones that have very low proportions of forest cover. One finding of particular interest was the percentage of forest remaining and the forest clearing rates in the “proposed” corridor areas. This zone had only 59% forest cover (of the classified land area in the sample), along with an annual clearing rate that was more than twice as high (0.57%) as any others. If these proposed corridors are to be linked to the currently protected areas of the MBC then the forest cover losses

25% 0.22% 0.25km2.17% 58. one in the Southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the other across the border into the northern Peten district of Guatemala (Figure 1). Protection Zone Status Parks and Reserves Undeclared Protected Areas Extractive Reserves New Protected Areas Proposed Corridor MBC Total Outside the MBC 7 Countries Total %Forest Remaining 93.77% 57. Guatemala: Case Studies in Land Cover and Land Use Change The forest cover and change rates presented in the Mesoamerica regional analysis tell us about “where” and “when” the forest conditions occurred but very little about “why” or “how” humans were influenced to make decisions about LCLUC on the landscape.58% 3 Southern Yucatan Peninsula.95 to 0. Table 1.26% 0. (1999) who compared deforestation rates and the extent of fragmentation inside and outside protected areas in the Sarapiqui region of Costa Rica. Annual forest clearing rates for protection zones of the proposed Mesoamerican Biological Corridor.57% 0. To understand LCLUC dynamics operating in the region. and fragmentation occurring in these zones should warrant thoughtful consideration by Central American governments and the conservation community. all Landsat study sites combined.. .48% 76. two NASA funded projects were conducted in adjacent study areas. 2001b).27% %/Year Forest Clearing 0. based on a 10 year median (from Sader et al. This analysis did not specifically address forest fragmentation. Their study indicated higher fragmentation outside of the protected zones with an increase in the number of patches and a decrease in mean size from 0.42% 30.15% 0. Instead we focus on forest change rates and trends in combination with socio-economic data. The reader is referred to the literature cited in this section for more specific information on methods and detailed results that are not presented here.26% 1.87% 80.23% 91. Some evidence comes from Sanchez et al. It is not our intention to provide complete coverage of either project. however it is likely that fragmentation in the region has been increasing along with the documented forest clearing. Mexico and Northern Peten.79% 57.62 SADER ET AL.44% 0. landscape level analysis and modeling techniques to examine how humans are influenced to make decisions to clear forests primarily for subsistence agriculture land use in the region.

D.. 1968). 1934) including abundant economic species presumably important in Maya orchardgardens (Gómez-Pompa et al. 1999). political instability and warfare. 2003).. Perhaps the most striking legacy of early 20th century timber extraction activities in these forests is the drastically reduced population of mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) and Spanish cedar (Cedrella odorata) (Snook. 1987. however. 1999.. an area known as La Selva Maya constitutes the largest contiguous tropical moist forest remaining in Central America (Nations et al. The Sierra del Lacandon is the only significant mountain range along the northwest border of Guatemala with Chiapas.. 250 to 900. the Maya Forest contains some of the world’s most significant archeological sites for one of the most developed civilizations of the time.. 2000. 1981). fire) and human (swidden cultivation. clay-filled depressions and subsurface drainage (Foster and Turner. Whigham et al. Foster et al. the role of human disturbance regimes outweighs the relatively low frequency and intensity of wind disturbance (Foster et al. Perez Salicrup. the karst geology. . Trees in medium to high forest grow taller than those in the bajo. Two major types of mature forests: upland medium to high-statured on well-drained soils and. a postulated combination of factors including population growth. on a longer term perspective. 1998. The two forest types share approximately 80% of tree species. The region is a karst landscape dominated by rolling uplands. Although natural disturbance caused by hurricanes may be important throughout the Yucatán peninsula (including northern Guatemala). Pennington and Sarukhan. soils and soil moisture (Schulze and Whitacre. and Belize. as well as natural (hurricanes. 1997. and climate change may have led to the collapse of the ancient Mayan civilization (Rice 1991. 2002) and common stands of species. 2003). Forest composition in the early part of the 20th century reflected traces of Mayan occupation from 1000 BC to 600-900 AD (Lundell. and are characterized more by differences in species abundance and forest structure than species diversity (Pérez Salicrup and Foster. species documented to be locally abundant in upland forest before the peak of the timber operations (Miranda 1958. A thousand years ago. northern Guatemala. but different relative abundances of each tree species. lowland short-statured or bajo forest on seasonally flooded soils dominate the region. where seasonal inundation limits growth and produces a shorter stature. indicates that they occupy a continuum along an environmental gradient. characteristic of Maya disturbed soils (Lambert and Arnason.. A marked northsouth precipitation gradient. the Classic Maya period of A. Along with supporting a rich diversity of plant and animal species. 2002). A similar combination of factors threatens the forest and its current inhabitants today. environmental destruction.FOREST CHANGE AND HUMAN DRIVING FORCES 63 3. despite a much lower population and a much shorter time frame (Sever 1998). fire) disturbance regimes together influence the region’s vegetation and nutrient cycling. Culbert 1993). 1998). 1998). apparently determined by local topography. Whitmore and Turner. Overlap between the two forest types. Boose et al. Mexico. Dominant natural vegetation types include tropical broadleaf evergreen forest. the latter two occurring in seasonally flooded swamps (Lundell 1937). such as ramón (Brosimum alicastrum ).1 PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION AND LAND USE HISTORY OF LA SELVA MAYA The adjacent forests in southern Mexico. semi-deciduous broadleaf forest and scrub-shrub broadleaf vegetation.

3. PETEN.28% and 3. The clearing rate in the buffer zone increased from 0. the Petén supports a low but rapidly growing population relative to the more crowded and heavily deforested southern highlands of Guatemala.71%. Spanning approximately two million hectares. The rates and trends of forest change were observed by comparing the four change detection time periods and reported for all management units in the MBR (Table 2). the Maya Biosphere Reserve (MBR) was established by congressional decree of the Guatemalan government in 1990 to preserve the remaining intact forest and the rich biological and cultural resources that it holds. In the face of this population expansion and destruction of forests. 3. Guatemala’s largest and northernmost department. however. Sader et al. (2001a) reported that the annual rate of forest loss within the MBR was lower. MEXICO The LCLUC-SYPR project focuses on a 10. the MBR is a complex of designated management units including five national parks. and some timber extraction is practiced within most concessions.78% per year in the four sequential time periods. and allspice.. 1990).000 square kilometers of mostly lowland tropical forests and wetlands. Some older communities have developed less dependence on swidden cultivation and cattle grazing and include more agroforestry and harvesting of nontimber forest products (Schwartz. areas were further delineated into forest concessions where management responsibilities were delegated to the communities there-in. was stable at 0. the concessions have a similar structure in use of agricultural plots allocated to families.000 km2 swath across the base of the Yucatán peninsula..36% per year in 1995-97. such as chicle. (1997 and 2001a) and Hayes et al. a multiple use zone. CAMPECHE AND QUINTANA ROO. cattle grazing. The forest is continually being cleared and its resources greatly taxed as human migration and the expansion of the agricultural frontier threatens the people and environment of the northern Petén (Sader et al. (2002) have monitored over ten years of deforestation in the MBR via time series Landsat image analysis. and a buffer zone (Figure 1). covers 36. xate.25% per year.64 SADER ET AL. 1997). annual forest clearing estimates for the buffer zone were well above the averages reported by the FAO for Guatemala. Swidden cultivation.04% in 1986-90 to 0.7%/year). and the livelihood of its people.2 THE MAYA BIOSPHERE RESERVE. The accuracy of the change detection results exceeded 85 percent (Sader et al. Sader et al. capturing significant portions of the two Mexican states of Campeche and Quintana Roo that are now incurring major forest conversion (Figure 3). 2001a). This “forest society” of the Petén (Schwartz 1990). is inextricably linked to the fate of the forest. In comparison to 1980’s deforestation estimates (FAO 1993) for Guatemala (1. Within the multiple use zone and buffer zone. Today. GUATEMALA El Petén. four biological reserves. Although there is no ejido system of land tenure as in the bordering Mexican states (see section below on the Mexican study site). The traditional life of these people has included mainly shifting cultivation agriculture and the harvest of non-timber forest products. Except for seasonal extraction of chicle. the study area remained ephemerally used .3 CALAKMUL BIOSPHERE RESERVE. The annual forest clearing rates for the MBR (excluding the buffer zone) increased from 0. Forest clearing in the multiple use zone in the last two time periods.74% to 2. 3.23% in 1990-93 then remained nearly constant at 0.33% in 1993-95 and 0.

000.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.P.00 0.00 0. 1985. The Maya Biosphere Reserve Management Units: Area and Annual Forest Clearing Rates (% per year) from 1986 to 1997.01 0.05 0. the land use change that continues to dominate the area is agricultural deforestation and to some extent pasture.00 0.00 0.78 0.25 3.04 0.26 0.25 3.00 0.00 0.28 Regional land-cover maps were created for the SYPR to derive estimates of the major land changes using classified Landsat TM scenes.00 0.26 0.763 555 34.00 0.03 0.28 0. private ranchers.94 2. large-scale development projects in the 1980s.) Laguna del Tigre N.00 0.) 55.06 0.351 408. The combination of scenes from different dates provides a more complete picture with less cloud coverage and solves some seasonal problems in class .148 191.719 45. The failure of these projects as well as concern about the scale of deforestation led to the creation.74 19901993 0. Major deforestation ensued. Major population growth and land-use change did not begin until the end of 1967 when a paved highway connecting the two coasts was built through the region.P. and land grants established newer ejido settlements (the ejido is a communal system of land tenure recognized at the federal level).P. especially mahogany and Spanish cedar began.47 2.P. Ejidos in the region of the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve increasingly reflect a complex set of strategies that combine agricultural crops with fruit production and economically viable timber and nontimber forest products in experimental agroforestry systems.P.867 61.63 9.57 0. of the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve (figure 1).00 1.FOREST CHANGE AND HUMAN DRIVING FORCES 65 from the time of ancient Maya abandonment until the middle of the 20th century. Sierra del Lacandon N.168 826.76 19951997 0.973 2. and ultimately. Rio Azul N.08 22.16 2. However.13 0. Cerro Cahui Reserve El Zotz Reserve Dos Lagunas Reserve Laguna del Tigre Reserve Multiple Use Zone Buffer Zone Total Area 1986 Forest Area (ha.00 0. when low-scale logging of tropical hardwoods.85 19861990 0.00 0.005 289.69 1.335 Percent Area 2. 1987 and 1988. Two mosaics of the region were created using the TM scenes: one for the mid-1980s using scenes from 1984.00 0. This opened up the forest lands to farmers.00 0.18 0.20 0. Management Units Tikal National Park (N. 1995.17 40.95 0.03 1.06 0.01 0. including the clear-cutting of large wetland (bajo) forests.00 0. Table 2. and the other for the mid-1990s using scene dates 1994.18 0.08 0. in 1989.05 0.71 19931995 0. El Mirador N.57 2.912 55. 1996 and 1997.62 13.934 30.

upland forest. In this area 15. There is considerable spatial variation in the average deforestation patterns described above (Figure 4). along the eastern edge of the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve.66 SADER ET AL. Over the last decade examined. 2003). Annual rates of deforestation derive to 0. than the deforestation rate for the total study area. the amount of . Southern Yucatan Peninsula Region study area. nevertheless. such as those emerging from the deciduous behavior of both bajo and medium forest. and bracken fern. agriculture (cropland-pasture-early successional regrowth). net deforestation for this area lowers to 11. reflecting the increased agricultural activity in the southeastern section of the study area (Figure 3). one savanna class. While large government projects were important in deforesting wetland forests before the mid-1980s (Turner et al. more than three times higher.. mid-late succession (4-15 yrs). Land-cover changes from 1987 to 1997 were estimated for 6 classes: bajo forest. a 2. However. For example.29%. subsequent human disturbance has focused almost solely on upland forests. Figure 3. rates of forest clearing were significantly higher in the southeastern ejidos. only regional forest change is reported here.1%. Adjusting for secondary succession. cannot be directly determined. Given the relatively short period of observation (10 years). which is nearly the same as the 1987-97 annual estimates reported earlier for the MBR (excluding the buffer zone). 1987-1997 (adapted from Roy Chowdhury and Schneider. Land use change and deforestation hotspots. Results of the time-series Landsat observations for the SYPR indicated that 6. 2001).1% of the forest was cleared in the decade from 1987 to 1997. whether transitory or persistent. When successional regrowth is included in the derivation of net deforestation rates.9% rate of deforestation results for the 10-year period. the status of secondary succession.8% of extant forest was removed between 1987 and 1997. separability.

1992. 2003). Figure 4. 1997. 1974. The SYPR . How long these parcels remains “lost” for cultivation and/or return to forest is not known. SYPR REGIONAL AND HOUSEHOLD MODELS This section reviews significant results of models that attempt to explain human behavior or biophysical factors that influence forest clearing. Forest succession may be impeded by the increasing intensity of land clearing and the proliferation of successful invaders such as bracken fern (Pteridium aquilinum ) Kuhn and Viguiera dentata ). and why land use-cover change occurs (Irwin and Geoghegan. also indicated by a four-fold increase in area invaded by bracken fern and more intensive chiliswidden cultivation. Lugo. and often promote the cutting of new forest to compensate for the cultivated area lost. Perez-Salicrup. Putz and Canham. This shift may suggest a reduction in the swidden fallow cycle. Models of land use change often begin with explanatory models of human behavior that address where. when. the invasives inhibit forest regeneration. In parts of the SYPR. these species become dominant under slash and burn agriculture (Niering and Goodwin.4. especially along the southern roadway. 3.FOREST CHANGE AND HUMAN DRIVING FORCES 67 cultivated lands taken from mature upland forests appears to have decreased.. cause farmers to abandon the affected patch. SYPR regional and household econometric models of deforestation (adapted from Geoghegan et al. 2001). 2003). Resistant to fire and disease and tolerant of a broad range of climates and soils. and the focus of cultivation shifted to successional growth.

On the other hand. 2003). Underlying are economic theories built on principles of a maximizing land manager.. The only biophysical variable that differs between the two models is pixel slope. Thus the household hazard model might yield the more consistent result that at the scale of an individual . forest type context) and socio-economic factors (demographics. education. As expected. wealth and infrastructure. shallow soils and less soil moisture. subsidies. Results from the regional logit and household models are summarized in Tables 3a and b (Geoghegan et al. the dependent variable is the pixel transitioning from forest to non-forest as derived from TM imagery (Roy Chowdhury and Schneider.. Demographic variables in both models indicate that male population increases the probability of deforestation in a statistically significant manner. ethnicity. as it tends to be related to more rugged terrain. Geoghegan et al.. 2003 and Keys. rainfall. welfare. superior upland soils and greater average precipitation increase the probability of deforestation. In both models.68 SADER ET AL. or utility maximization in the case of thin markets and subsistence cultivation (for a description of SYPR households and market cultivation. 2003). 2001) by tracking the land use associated with each particular pixel through multiple TM images over time. 2003). project goals were to explain and predict land use change through two distinct econometric modeling approaches: (1) use individual household surveys at the household scale of analysis to understand and model land managers’ decisions. and the independent variables are biophysical (soils. While the estimated coefficients on the female population variable differ between the models. the overall results are similar. The household model is slightly more sophisticated than the regional one as it focuses on both the location and timing of land-use change (Irwin and Bockstael. an unsurprising result given that the majority of households in the region are semi-subsistent producers. the household model focuses on the parcels associated with the household survey data. The regional model extends over the entire study area and links the satellite imagery with biophysical data and socio-demographic data from government census in a discrete choice logit model of deforestation. tenure. but also uses the richer socio-demographic data derived from the linkage of individual farm plots and the satellite imagery. either profit maximization if the land manager is engaged in the market. for whom family members simultaneously represent a source of labor as well as demand for outputs from the agricultural plots. and focuses exclusively on the location of land use change. It is of interest to note how each similar explanatory variable increases or decreases the probability of deforestation in both of the model specifications. and all but one has the same sign in both models. This approach uses the same biophysical data of the regional model.. all factors inhibiting yields. topography. Higher elevation is estimated to lower the likelihood of deforestation in both models. in a household hazard modeling framework. The primary forest variable is negative in both models. while female population decreases the same probability. linking their outcomes directly to TM imagery via a geographic information system (GIS). suggesting that farmers prefer to clear secondary forest. 2001. The regional model uses as the dependent variable the results from GIS change analysis for two different time periods of TM images. and (2) to model at the regional scale using available remote sensing and census data (Geoghegan et al. The biophysical variables (Table 3a and b) are all statistically significant. 2003). The logit model yields the counterintuitive result that increased slope increases the probability of deforestation. see Vance et al. amount and location of land).

0059 .97 -12. the more important factors of soil and forest type better explain the clearing decision.26 -88.0098 -2.82 -4.3281 -.0795 . Socio-economic Forest Extension (dummy) Male population (per ejido) Female population (per ejido) Spanish speaking (per ejido) Forest Extension (dummy) Ejido size (# pixels) Percent with water (hh/ejido) Percent with electricity (hh/ejido) Percent receiving credit (hh/ejido) Good soil (dummy) 2.. Distance Distance to roads (m) Distance to nearest ag land (m) Distance to market (m) 3. Biophysical Primary forest (dummy) Elevation (m amsl) Precipitation (mm) Slope (degrees) Number ag pixels (5x5) Constant Pseudo R2 Number of observations Estimated Coefficient -. slope decreases the probability of deforestation. but at the regional level. and Biophysical Variables from Regional Logit Model (adapted from Geoghegan et al. Table 3a.22 -69. exploratory models were used to examine relations between a landscape variable (forest type) and biophysical variable (distance to road and river access) to forest clearing over time.8773 -.099 0.96 21.000 hectares.0041 -.0048 -.0038 .74 -91.57 22.0592 -2.statistic -5.0004 -.2264 3944875 t .04 -39. .73 -2.01e-06 -. Econometric Results of Deforestation as Explained by Socio-economic.26 -33.37 -109.0012 .0001 -.FOREST CHANGE AND HUMAN DRIVING FORCES 69 parcel.03 -201.35 3.49 14.0021 -4. In the MBR study.72 -150.15 67. The study area contained several community concessions near the center of the MBR encompassing an area of approximately 514.60 53.0006 .0035 -.24 13.5 FOREST CLEARING RELATIONSHIPS WITH BIOPHYSICAL VARIABLES IN THE MBR Some of the same relationships of human preference to clear secondary forest and avoid wet areas (bajos) found in the SYPR study were also observed in the Maya Biosphere Reserve study site. 2003) Dependent Variable: Deforestation 1.11 -30.0145 .45e-06 -.

2003) Dependent Variable: Deforestation 1. A curvilinear relationship was apparent.0413 .1366 . Total area cleared.2248 -. 2002 demonstrated that the area of alto (high) and medio (medium) forest cleared was higher than guamil (fallow fields or early second growth) and bajo forest.40 -13.1005 -. the relationship of clearing to forest cover type proportion available is helpful in illustrating trends. Table 3b.6861 .92 -6. with an R-square of 0.40 -3.66 115017 t .88 5.5278 18641.0253 . was plotted against distance from access..0005 -. in kilometers.734. Socio-economic Average # of males > 11 over interval Average # of females > 11 over interval Average # of children < 12 over interval Duration of occupancy Duration of occupancy squared Plot size (# of pixels) Percent of interval owning chain saw Percent of interval owning vehicle Education of household head # of household members w/> 8 years education Native Spanish speaker Percent of interval receiving government credit 2.81 5.98). Distance squared was also significant to area cleared.539.72 -39. all time periods combined (1986-90-93-95-97).70 SADER ET AL.0145 . Biophysical Primary forest Upland soil Elevation Slope Precipitation Constant Likelihood Ratio Chi2(31) Number of observations Estimated Coefficient .1453 -3.499 -16.0452 -. The strongest relationship was obtained by using the log transform of area cleared .2566 -. forest closer to access corridors was considered to be “more available” than forest further from access. with a negative coefficient and an R-square of 0.20 8. Econometric Results of Deforestation as Explained by Socio-economic and Biophysical Variables from Individual Household Hazard Model (adapted from Geoghegan et al.0104 -.77 4. Given that the proximity relationship of clearing to points of access is a relevant factor in the analysis of forest type clearing.statistic 1.0261 . Distance Distance household to plot Distance ejido to nearest market 3. 2002 first tested the general pattern of forest clearing in proximity to access.0723 -.33 19. Regression analysis indicated that distance from access was significantly and negatively associated with area cleared (coefficient = -29.70 Hayes at al.63 3.99 -8.09 9. with area cleared decreasing exponentially as distance increased.0002 . Hayes et al.55 13..93 -7. In examining the use (clearing) of the different forest types for establishing farm plots.62 -21..62 10.56 -36.0365 .81 -27.0270 -.0322 -.4522 . For example.

at each 1 pixel interval from access.53 and an R-square of 0..224 * medio -0. while proportional clearing less than that available had negative residuals. Hayes et al. the area of each cover type available will change over time and the amount of each cover type cleared will vary at different distances from access. The mean . it is informative to consider these effects in exploring the question of how different cover types are utilized (cleared) for establishing farm plots. and equal proportions were close to zero (Figure 5). Having established the relationships of forest clearing over time from distance to access.05 level Figure 5.FOREST CHANGE AND HUMAN DRIVING FORCES 71 against distance from access (km). Mean residuals of the model suggest the relative human preference or avoidance of clearing a cover type (adapted from Hayes et al.74% -43. resulting in a coefficient of –0. 2002). Therefore. They expected the points to fall along a line representing a 1:1 relationship of percent cleared to percent available.03km) intervals from roads and rivers. The relationship of the percent of each cover type cleared to the percent available at 1 pixel (0.724 * * significant at the 0.36% 12. The percent of available area cleared in each cover type was plotted against the percent of total available area represented by each cover type.. Proportional clearing greater than availability had positive residuals.607 bajo -9. 2002). mean residual: t= alto 5.51% -1. However. 2002 hypothesized that if farmers showed no preference for clearing a particular forest type over another in establishing plots. Points deviating from this line were examined by their residuals. the area of each cover type should be equally proportional to its availability.14% 22.951 (Hayes et al.977 * guamil 8..

Positive mean residuals and significant t-test results for alto forest and guamil types (5. CONAP. with a slightly higher propensity for using guamil -fallow fields where available. as well as in individual ejido communities. The NASA-LCLUC projects in the region have engaged local scientists and developed partnerships with government and non-government organizations (NGOs) in the conduct of the research.4% and 8. the significantly negative residuals suggesting that bajo is avoided in farm plot establishment. Other contributors to the Selva Maya map were 1) ECOSUR supplying the data for the Monte Azules Biosphere Reserve and environs in Chiapas. 2003) were contributed by the two NASALCLUC funded projects previously mentioned. and that the techniques that they employed may be an important clue to the question of how the civilization supported much higher population densities than exist today. the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor project has conducted five training workshops in four different Central America countries to build local capacity to use NASA technology in monitoring LCLUC in the region. 4 Regional Training and Partnerships Demonstrating applications of the NASA-LCLUC research and providing training in remote sensing analysis to local participants is extremely important for building local capability to continue the land cover monitoring work. 1997). the Calakmul Reserve in Campeche and part of Quintana Roo. the overall trend toward avoidance of clearing in bajos suggests a lack of adaptation by migrants from the highlands of southern portions of Guatemala to traditional lowland farming techniques. Indeed. Mexico (Turner et al. Also. 2001). An exemplary feat of regional cooperation was achieved when Conservation International spearheaded the Selva Maya Vegetation Mapping Project. The SYPR project has collaborative research linkages with El Colegio de La Frontera Sur (ECOSUR). that leveraged several land cover mapping projects ongoing in the forests connecting the Mexican states. a Mexican research and teaching institute focused on issues of forest conservation and sustainable development at Mexico’s southern frontier.1%) indicate that a greater proportional area was cleared in these types than their availability at each interval from access. Mexico. The project has also disseminated research findings and maps to the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve.. For example. 1998) provided the socio-economic context for the analysis of land cover and land use change from the time-series database. Information from a household survey in the study area (Schwartz. Sever 1998). For example. lowland bajos (Turner 1983.72 SADER ET AL. The vegetation maps for the Maya Biosphere Reserve in Guatemala (Sader et al. residual of bajo forest clearing showed the greatest deviation from what was expected based on availability (-9. (the Guatemalan government protected areas agency) working with a local NGO (ProPeten) in Flores Guatemala. successfully completed the 2001 forest change mapping update for the MBR (Ramos Ortiz and Martinez. after two training sessions and working closely with the University of Maine and NASA researchers on change detection methodology. 2) Stanford University’s Center for Conservation . This suggests a preference for these types in plot establishment..7%). northern Guatemala and Belize. Analysis of the database provided a general examination of the use of clearing and fallow in adaptive strategies. there is evidence that the Ancient Mayans farmed the seasonally flooded. the regional council of ejidos. NGOs such as Bosque Modelo Calakmul.

g. 5 Conclusions The NASA – LCLUC research in the region has demonstrated the utility of medium resolution satellite imagery (e. relevant and appropriate information to the broad array of decision-makers and stakeholders involved”. cultural. providing complete vegetation maps for Belize. 2001). U. the analysis of remotely sensed data combined with the collection and examination of socio-economic and biophysical data has improved our understanding of the driving forces that influence human decisions to clear forest. In a comprehensive report on the MBC development strategy (Miller et al. The use of corridors to link larger protected areas. Although these ideas sound good and reasonable on paper. Ideally. Furthermore. accomplishing these sustainable development goals are extremely challenging. The technical challenge of the Selva Maya project was to present a consistent and seamless vegetation map. the World Bank.) that could be promoted and encouraged through financial incentives as part of an MBC strategy (Miller et al.g. is receiving growing endorsement by conservation biologists as a strategy to foster biological connectivity (and reduce local extinctions) in a practical and ethical manner. 2001). Agency for International Development (USAID) and university scientists to push the research agenda focused on biodiversity analysis of the MBC and regional carbon initiatives. However. 1999).conservation.. etc.S. Another 30 million dollars has been pledged by international donors in 2003 to continue support for MBC projects (ccad. in the Central American region.org). . The Selva Maya vegetation map was published by Conservation International in May 2000 (www. There are many complex social. riparian forest protection. high-resolution land cover/use map still does not exist to support detailed analysis of the entire MBC. primarily for agricultural uses. the World Resources Institute (WRI) stated that “the MBC’s success will depend on the collection and dissemination of accurate. considering that large protected areas cannot always be set aside in areas where people have lived and farmed for centuries (Bennett. given that different classification schemes. 3) the Programme for Belize and Ministry of Natural Resources. Landsat) for monitoring forest change.sgsiga. and including a current.. high resolution satellite images are now available (complete 1990s and 2000 Landsat data -30 m) through the NASA Scientific Data Purchase program which has stimulated new cooperative research between NASA. compatible for the entire region. Each contributing institution “crosswalked” their respective vegetation classifications into the Federal Geographic Data Classification – National Vegetation Classification System. and technical issues that have to be carefully considered and resolved to implement multiple projects on the ground that will lead to improved linkage of forest and woody habitat corridors throughout the region..FOREST CHANGE AND HUMAN DRIVING FORCES 73 Biology. areas within the proposed corridor links would be allowed to regenerate back to forest and managed for “green” land management activities (e. diverse cropping. contributing data for part of the Calakmul Reserve and. Adequate GIS databases.org) to facilitate regional cooperation and integration of geographic data bases to support sustainable development and biodiversity conservation in the region. image resolutions and land cover interpretations were used to develop the original map products. shaded coffee.

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or very sparse sampling. Nepstad et al. 2002. WALTER CHOMENTOWSKI1. Despite the recognized importance of tropical LCLUC. 1990. 1995b). COCHRANE1. and reconciling flux estimates from models (Houghton et al. Nowhere are human-mediated changes in land cover affecting global processes more than in the tropics. global change scientists have had to rely on frequently inaccurate FAO estimates of forest loss (Kaiser 2002).. This has forced the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to emphasize that deforestation estimates in tropical countries may be in error by +/. Indeed. 1995a. Gutman et al. . Regeneration and Degradation DAVID L. Houghton 1991). Printed in the Netherlands.. 77 G.CHAPTER 5 PATTERN TO PROCESS IN THE AMAZON REGION Measuring Forest Conversion. these studies. MARCOS PEDLOWSKI2. or imperfect sampling schemes to make large-area or global estimates. 2002. East Lansing. 1999. © 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Houghton and Skole. T. (eds. however. and only recently considered for future assessments.. rivaling glacial/interglacial transitions in magnitude (NAS 2000). In recent years.). when taken together as a whole. 77–95. several important LCLUC studies of tropical forest loss or degradation have been published in the scientific literature. contain considerable uncertainty and broad differences in our current understanding of rates of deforestation and degradation. which affects everything from aerosols and biodiversity to the global carbon and hydrologic cycles. Land Change Science. and global biogeochemical cycles (Crutzen and Andreae. hard data on LCLUC in these regions have been sparse or nonexistent. 1990. having a large influence on hydrology. MATRICARDI1. Brazil 1 1 Introduction Human beings are altering land cover at rates and scales that are unprecedented in human history (NRC 2002). Shukla et al. 1984. Salati and Vose. Past FAO estimates have suffered from a strong reliance of secondary sources. DANIELLE KIMBLE1 Center for Global Change and Earth Observations.50%. MI 48823 2 Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense. MARK A.. Land cover and land use change are important drivers of ecological change in Amazonia. Achard et al.Michigan State University. even at some distance from the zone of direct encroachment (Walker and Solecki. the comprehensive use of remote sensing data has been heretofore absent in the implementation of the observation and measurement efforts. DeFries et al. Land cover change in this region is globally significant. Further refinement in the estimates of tropical forest conversion will also be important for balancing the global carbon budget. all of these studies have had to rely on indirect estimation techniques. Understanding the causes and effects of regional land cover and land use change (LCLUC) is one of the grand challenges in the environmental sciences (NAS 2000).. Consequently. SKOLE1. some utilizing remote sensing observations (cf.. climate. Conversion to agricultural and urban land creates widespread ecological disturbance. ERALDO A. 2000) and atmospheric measurements (Ciais et al.). 1999). Rio de Janeiro. 1990.

we do not know the magnitude and importance of forest regeneration. they differ widely on the continental estimates of where the errors are located. 2002) have only served to illustrate the problems faced. and an assessment of recent studies which have used indirect estimators to claim logging rates within tropical forests as high as or higher than deforestation (e. UNEP 2002). 2 The Science of Amazon Forest Cover Change 2. hold great quantities of carbon. These forests also. and trace gases. or how land management affects these processes. Provision of accurate and timely land cover and land use change information is problematic for a number of reasons. the area of which is quite variable from year to year. considerable work has been done using remote sensing to measure the rate and pattern of deforestation in this important region. how often it is recycled. Nepstad et al. this study makes a definitive statement on the quantitative significance of degradation via logging.. by virtue of their high biomass. we do not well understand the overall dynamics of secondary growth. Moreover. Recent efforts to estimate global tropical deforestation rates (Achard et al. particularly the carbon cycle. 2002.g. This paper reviews our current understanding of the rates and geographic distribution of the full disturbance regime in Amazonia. 2002. DeFries et al. most of the analysis of land use and land cover change has been coarse and highly aggregate. and degradation in Amazonia. 2002. we have extremely poor information on forms of forest degradation which occur in addition to outright loss of forests by deforestation.1 TROPICAL LAND COVER AND LAND USE CHANGE The world’s biodiversity-rich tropical forests house the majority of the Earth’s species. Among other things. But there are serious limitations to previous analyses. First. high-resolution forest/deforestation maps in the tropics (Achard et al. and logging. Although both studies indicate that FAO estimates are high.. Over the past decade. including its probability distribution function from one region of Amazonia to the next. 1999). What is widely agreed on is the need for wall-to-wall. carbon.. degradation occurs through selective logging. with a restricted focus on its role in global phenomena..e. understanding the spatial extent and underlying processes inherent in rapid . we lack accurate measurements of the inter-annual variations in the rate and geographic extent of deforestation and we do not know the significance of inter-annual variability on fluxes in water. regeneration. energy. Second. The objective of the research reported here is to provide a 30-m resolution multi-temporal regional measurement of deforestation. The use of remote sensing affords the opportunity to obtain focused disaggregated measurements of land cover changes in key regions such as Amazonia. Schimel and Baker. not the least of which is the near 2 billion hectare scale of the Earth’s humid tropical forests.78 SKOLE ET AL. We consider the recent trends in deforestation and degradation and utilize remote sensing to measure forest loss rates. fragmentation and fire. how fast it regrows. how long it persists before being re-cleared. Despite the numerous environmental and ecological effects across all scales of analysis. Therefore. Lastly. While previous work under the Landsat Pathfinder program has emphasized forest and non forest mapping (i. deforestation) we now include measures of a more complete suite of disturbances including logging as well as regeneration of forests. regeneration. Kaiser 2002.

2 FOREST DEGRADATION Understanding changes in tropical land cover/use requires more than simple quantification of deforestation rates because there are also a range of processes which degrade forests. such as forest fires. Pan-tropical forest fires burned more than 20 million hectares in 1997-98 (Cochrane 2003) including more than one million hectares of Amazonian forests in the Brazilian state of Roraima (UNEP 2002). biodiversity and environmental services. in prep). in prep) and direct measurement (fire-damaged forests – Cochrane and Souza..3 million hectares were selectively logged in the Brazilian Amazon alone (Matricardi et al.PATTERN TO PROCESS IN THE AMAZON REGION 79 tropical LCLUC is critical for a host of reasons. 2000). even if severe. (2002) estimated.. Janeczek 1999.. serious . Both fragmentation (Cochrane 2001) and selective logging (Cochrane et al. 1998. The problem with such analyses is that. 1999. Cochrane and Laurance. Souza and Barreto. 1998. Nepstad et al. 2000. accurate measurements have yet to be made. through visual interpretation. Cochrane 2001. Despite these advances though. Laporte et al. 1997.3 million ha yr-1 of standing tropical forests were degraded between 1990-1997.. 2001. from the conservation of habitat. 2001. fire and other secondary effects (Laurance et al. in press) interact synergistically with fire-dependent land use to foster frequent and increasingly intense forest fires (Cochrane et al. Matricardi et al. 1993.3 million hectares of forest edges (Skole et al. 10. even while forest cover nominally remains intact. resources. Achard et al. in press). Skole et al.. 2002). (1999) extrapolated the area of forest subjected to logging from the volume of roundwood arriving at sawmills. 2000) of forest degradation have advanced our understanding of the magnitudes of these disturbances. without mapping. unlike deforestation... In addition. and fragmentation – Skole and Tucker. Incorporation of forest degradation into LCLUC analyses will require moving beyond discrete land cover classification to accurate continuous-field representations of the spatial and temporal changes in forest density and structure that describe the degradation-regeneration continuum of forest cover.. 1993. However. 2. may only be apparent in standard imagery classification techniques for a few years due the rapid regrowth of vegetation that quickly masks the damaged forest (Stone and Lefebvre.. degradation. 1997) and over 2. Skole et al... in prep) were suffering biomass collapse (Laurance et al. forest fragmentation and selective logging.. For example. Laurance et al. Forest degradation affects millions of hectares of forest. 2001). studies have relied on indirect measures. A byproduct of these land use derived cover changes is extensive forest degradation and fragmentation that alters disturbance regimes for hundreds to thousands of meters from forest edges due to biomass collapse. Recent advances in methods for both indirect (Logging – Souza and Barreto. In some cases.. thereby degrading vast regions of forest beyond the areas of outright clearing (Skole and Tucker. Barber and Schweithelm. to concerns about trace gases and particulate emissions that alter climate and impact human health. tropical forests throughout Africa. Asia and the Americas continue to be subjected to large-scale selective logging operations that reduce the structural and biophysical integrity of millions of hectares of forest each year (Nepstad et al. Siegert and Ruecker. 1999) that have degraded several million hectares of tropical forest in recent years (UNEP 2002. This estimate is obviously low given that by 1999. Matricardi et al. 2000. 2000. that 2. these processes reduce canopy cover and cause biomass to be lost from extensive standing forests. Cochrane 2003).

which lack explicit connection to observed changes in land cover or use. In this particular case. Most current efforts to incorporate land use change into carbon cycle models have been aggregate in construct (0. These activities are important in the Amazon but vary spatially and temporally across the Amazon basin. 1999.. much of the research and modeling is undertaken at a scale that prevents a comprehensive accounting for land use effects from a range of disturbances. Nepstad et al. Hence. 1996.. Even if a pixel is classified as forest. However.3 SIGNIFICANCE OF DEFORESTATION FOR CARBON ACCOUNTING Deforestation processes have been well documented in tropical forests (Geist and Lambin. Rayner et al.80 SKOLE ET AL. The distribution of sources and sinks of carbon among the world’s ecosystems is uncertain.. Improved carbon models will require remote sensing measurements that account for fractional changes within forests as additional source terms. due to fractional density of forest cover and the ages of regrowing trees. since the so-called missing sink of carbon is either a component of changes in ecosystem metabolism or secondary growth from recent land use change. 1999) provide prognostic insight into actual processes associated with land use and land cover change.g.. such as agricultural land areas (e. 1999).. Nor do these simple trend models or datasets-derived analyses (e. These models have not explicitly treated the spatially varying landscape mosaic left behind by a range of anthropogenic disturbances acting simultaneously and interactively within a locale. (Keeling et al. whereas the tropics are a net source (Ciais et al. Fan et al. 2. 1999).. whereas the northern mid-latitudes are a small sink. 2002). The role of land use change is central to this controversy. there can be substantial differences among forests in terms of carbon stocks. Houghton et al. Ramankutty and Foley. such as those caused by logging and fire (Cochrane et al. .5 ... Simple extrapolations. 1998). This approach cannot account for land use effects and other disturbances that reduce the carbon content within standing forests. Other analyses show the tropics to be nearly neutral. which have typically introduced land use change as a simple forcing function as aggregate totals of area cleared on decadal time steps.. It will be difficult to determine through direct measurements if it is due to ecosystem metabolism. with little consideration of spatiality. double counting of land cover change may occur. the most widely reported estimate of logging rates in virgin forests of the Amazon (Nepstad et al. considerable uncertainty remains regarding the complex mosaic of damaged and regenerating forests that surrounds it. 1999) may be considerably flawed as a measure of damage to standing forests (“cryptic impoverishment”) because the investigators could not explicitly map these disturbances on the landscape. As a consequence. including degradation and regeneration within intact forest covers. 1999) or addition sink terms such as regeneration (Brown et al. to estimate degraded forest area.g. Parameters used to drive these models are often derived from surrogate data. Some analyses show northern mid-latitude land to be a large sink. cannot account for spatial or temporal overlap with other land use or cover changes.4. There is widespread recognition of the importance of including biotic components in global carbon models. Estimated changes in terrestrial carbon stocks that are caused by land use change in the tropics often use rigid binary classification techniques (deforestation assessment) where a pixel is classified as either forest or non-forest.0 spatial resolution). 2000). there was no accounting for roundwood arriving at sawmills that originated from newly deforested lands (salvage of valuable trees) or from sites that had previously been logged (return logging for newly marketable species). 1995.

Moran et al.4 GTC in the northern hemisphere temperate zone.. 1998. 3 Geographic and Inter-annual Variations: Recent Evidence for Land Use Components Early work by Tans et al. the single largest tropical forest zone. Houghton et al. Siegenthaler and Sarmiento (1993) updated the Tans et al. . particularly on an annual basis.. (1990) used a global circulation model to redistribute atmospheric CO2 based on surface fluxes of CO from fossil fuel combustion. but regrowth on recently deforested land was not large enough to suggest land use changes alone could result in a neutral net flux. or that the tropical source term of 1. Moreover.8 1.3 GTC. This estimate was significantly higher that the observed meridional gradient of 3ppm based on the NOAA flask measurements (Tans et al..PATTERN TO PROCESS IN THE AMAZON REGION 81 but remote sensing of changes in forest are a useful way to measure the land use component and either confirm or eliminate this component. it could not assess through direct observations (cf.0 GTC is too high. Studies of tropical land use change suggest considerable inter-annual variation in rates of deforestation (Skole et al. However. 1994).0 to 3. knowledge of the magnitude of the tropical land use source. oceanic uptake estimates. 1996. Thus. and concluded that there is either a terrestrial sink of about 1. Their analysis predicted that atmospheric [CO2] should exhibit a strong north-south gradient of 5. atmospheric measurements. 2000).6 1. Quay et al.. 1990). tropical deforestation.7 to 7.3 ppm. and timber volume records. Moreover. that land use change results in large net fluxes to the atmosphere in the tropics.. Also. 1994). and oceanic uptake.1GTC). and is responsible for a component of the missing sink in the northern temperate zone. this analysis showed considerable inter-annual variation and only used a single year’s estimate of the area in regrowth. its magnitude would have to be estimated from. even if ecosystem metabolism were a major component. in part. they assumed that the “missing sink” was a terrestrial sink of 2. there are large areas of formerly deforested land being placed into secondary succession each year (Skole et al. the importance of selective logging and forest degradation through fragmentation and fire were not included in that analysis. Steininger 1996. (2000) investigated annual fluxes of carbon from deforestation and regrowth in Amazonia. and estimated that the average annual terrestrial uptake was negligible (0. Thus. from remote sensing). this might provide brief periods when carbon sources and sinks from land use change are nearly balanced. (1992) estimated the net flux of CO2 in the ocean and biosphere using isotopic measurements of 13C (essentially the ratio of 13C/12C) in the atmosphere and dissolved inorganic carbon from ocean surface waters and atmospheric [CO2]. There is less direct evidence from remote sensing of changes in land areas. and concluded that carbon emissions from land use change were balanced by carbon uptake in undisturbed forests (Tian et al. or a combination of both. In specific years when deforestation rates are low and abandonment is high. there is substantial indirect evidence from historical land use records. but not comprehensively including other forms of human-caused forest disturbance and degradation on an annual basis. This is true for the tropical regions where there are on-going efforts to measure deforestation and regeneration. inter-annual variations in regrowth compared to deforestation explicitly. Therefore. Alves and Skole.

g.. 1998). to explore ecosystem response to changes in temperature and precipitation due to increased atmospheric CO2 and radiative forcing on climate. (2000) modeled both the annual variation in Amazonian deforestation. (1998) and Melillo et al. However. While a northern tropical source is consistent with satellite measurements of deforestation and fires in Indochina (Skole et al. (1993) have used TEM. the constrained inverse models (cf.4. At still more aggregate levels.82 SKOLE ET AL. NPP) or changes in water and energy balance (e. 1997. 1990) with [CO2] and 13C measurements from NOAA’s Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) global flask network (like Quay et al.. 4 Limitations of Global Models and Their Treatment of Land Use Many previous efforts to model forest and ecosystem changes have been aggregate in nature (0. Keeling et al. A weak terrestrial sink in the southern tropical zone suggests that either the forests have a positive net ecosystem production (due to fertilization of undisturbed forest and/or secondary growth formation) or previous estimates of deforestation have been overestimated (Ciais et al.g. (2000) and concluded that while deforestation was a large source. When a spatial context is introduced it has generally been done to treat the large-area . with spatial heterogeneity limited to latitudinal gradients of atmospheric CO2. Randerson et al. there was considerable variation from year to year in both components (land use and ecosystem metabolism) of the regional total net flux. Global ecosystem models have typically introduced land cover change as a simple forcing function derivative of total area cleared. most models use aggregated deforestation rates to drive carbon flux or changes in continental NPP. and have been coupled to large-scale climate models to provide more realistic vegetation and land cover controls on climate dynamics. (1996) provide particularly strong evidence for a neutral tropical flux from new measurements of O2. two areas with very high reported rates of deforestation. whereas the biosphere in the northern tropics (from equator to 30 N) was a large source (2. For instance McGuire et al. albedo or latent and sensible heat flux)..5 . (1996) have used the CASA model to explore continental scale hydrology and carbon dynamics. 1992) to estimate CO2 partitioning as a function of latitude and time from 1990 to 1993. 1995b) used a hybrid approach using a twodimensional atmospheric transport model (like Tans et al. Their results suggest that the northern temperate zone was a large terrestrial sink (3. Potter et al. it was offset by increased NPP in undisturbed forests. and changes in NPP due to climate variations in Amazonia based on Tian et al. a large southern tropical zone. carbon flux).g. Houghton et al.. More recently Ciais et al. without specific or comprehensive regard for the complex dynamics of land use itself. changes in ecosystem metabolism (e. They also estimated that the southern tropical zone was a small terrestrial sink in 1992 and 1993. (1997). For example.0 1.3 GTC) of carbon. Tian et al.. 1990) have been used to examine sources and sinks of carbon at the global scale.. (1995a. 1995a). and used to study primarily biophysical aspects: biogeochemistry (e.0 ). Similarly the SVAT and BATS models have been employed in the aggregate to improve land cover factors in climate models. a large scale ecosystem model.5 GTC) in 1992 and 1993. Tans et al. The SiB models have been used to examine changes in surface conditions and ecosystem productivity. this is surprising for southern tropics because this latitudinal band contains Brazil and Indonesia.

or agents. even represented as a coarse scale map. Cochrane et al.PATTERN TO PROCESS IN THE AMAZON REGION 83 variations in biomass classes found on generalized maps or for connectivity to basinscale hydrology. Moreover. much of the research and modeling is undertaken at a scale that overlooks actual processes associated with land use and land cover change. and stimulates invasions by plant pests and pathogens.. is far from complete. resulting in local drying of these sites (Uhl and Kauffman. does not reveal the actual and multiple factors that are causing (or are driving) the patterns and rates. which includes agricultural deforestation. a land use strategy that minimizes exposure to fire-related losses that are inherent in such long-term investments as agroforestry. beyond the discrete boundaries of transition from “human” domination to nature. the following four shortcomings of an aggregate modeling approach can be identified: 4. in press). in press). and therefore any prognostic land use capabilities are nonexistent in global models. of land. As a consequence. In Amazonia. operating in a single landscape and interacting with each other. logging. because the factors at work occur and vary across scales. These models have been invaluable for ascertaining the global-scale significance of land use and land cover change for forcing fluxes of radiatively important gases. or biome-wide ecosystem response to climate change. fire. The treatment of land use change has also been consistent with their approach. and plant pests and pathogens. The use of fire in shifting cultivation increases the probability of devastating fires in nearby logged forests (see Nepstad et al. This generalized picture of global change. Both forest fragmentation and selective logging combine to synergize the spread of fires across the landscape and facilitate its penetration into remnant forests (Cochrane 2001. As this example makes clear. and exist as a suite of factors. primarily focused on developing inventory-based calculations as a direct function of the total area disturbed.1 INTERACTIONS BETWEEN MULTIPLE DRIVERS OF LAND COVER CHANGE The first point is that a fundamental understanding of the processes of land use and land cover change is absent.. 2002. The risk of a fire “externality” in landscape-level farming systems tends to push farmers to adopt fire resistant pastures. thus greatly influencing the future trajectory of land use change in a region. 1990). land use and land cover change (in the tropics and elsewhere) arises by virtue of complex interactions. Cochrane and Laurance. .. Cochrane et al. The scale selected has been consistent with the questions they pose. Fire probability in logged sites is increased by the actions of farmers clearing proximate forests for agriculture (Cochrane et al. Within the present context.. with respect to land use and cover change.. Selective logging degrades forests. Consider the range of disturbances in a tropical forest. 1995). there is a gradient of biological impoverishment extending into what is generally identified as “primary” forest. climate forcing from land surface changes. These models have not explicitly treated the spatially varying landscape mosaic left behind by a range of anthropogenic and natural disturbances acting simultaneously and interactively within a Disturbance Regime. and broadcasts ecological impact beyond the boundaries of human use. leads to unexpected feedbacks. selective logging and the construction of logging roads lead to deforestation for agriculture (Verissimo et al. A time series of deforestation. 1999. 1999). and abuse.

Proximity. While most models use simple linear extrapolations of forest clearing as a forcing function. Satellite analyses of the Brazilian Amazon indicate that from 1978 to 1998 the average annual rate of deforestation was between 1. it has been shown that the abandonment rate can be as high as 82% of the deforestation rate (1991-1992 in Alves and Skole. 1993. Skole and Tucker. or the lack of active land management or population displacement results in long-term succession. Deforestation rates in Amazonia. Steininger 1996) are useful for characterizing the dynamics of the secondary growth resulting from tropical land use.6-2. latent and sensible heat flux. The influence of the landscape mosaic or patchwork resulting from various modes of disturbance and recovery influences water and energy balance. may range by a factor of two from year to year. among other factors. Almost 60% of the areas in secondary growth in 1986 were recleared at least once by 1992. and spatial orientation of the landscape matrix matter for the prediction of land cover change (Gascon et al. and over 55% of the deforested areas in 1986 were abandoned into secondary growth for some period of time by 1992 (Alves and Skole. abandonment and re-clearing. 4. 2000.84 SKOLE ET AL. regeneration from abandonment or fallowing interact in counter-intuitive and complex ways (Skole et al.. deforestation and secondary succession exist in tandem as a tightly coupled system in which secondary growth is continually recycled back into farmland. secondary growth is a large (over 40% of the deforested areas) and a rapidly changing pool. the pattern of landscape change induced by land use change is revealed at very fine scales. and that the rates at which land is cleared or abandoned are related to the land use and management system that forest farmers employ. as well as atmospheric boundary layer dynamics. in parts of Rondonia. 1993. From a few site studies in which interannual time series data have been acquired.. 1996). To be sure. 4. we know that the fine scale temporal patterns of clearing.2 FINE–SCALE SPATIAL PATTERNS Second. Brondizio et al. Cochrane and Laurance. 1994.2 x106 ha per year (Fearnside 1993. Satellite analysis indicate that. size. for example. In other cases. In some cases. The 1990-1991 rate was 67% less than the average rate for this 20-year period. Moran et al. recent studies by Laurance et al (1997) have shown significant biomass collapse in the forest edges adjacent to cleared pastures due to changes in microclimate. This analysis and other similar satellite-based analyses (Lucas et al. usually aggregated or averaged on a decadal time frame. which result in increased tree mortality and decreased recruitment. 1994. These and other recent studies of deforestation from satellite data show a highly dynamic process of clearing. INPE 2002). of 50%... over 6 years. the deforestation rate varied annually by as much as 100% with an average variation. 1998). During this same period. 2002). active land management maintains the land in agriculture.. The landscape that results from the suite of agents of land use change – both human and biophysical in origin – is complex and not well described in the aggregate. .3 FINE-SCALE TEMPORAL PATTERNS There is considerable evidence that disturbance to forests by human activities varies significantly from one year to the next. 1996).

and what factors determine or control the balance between clearing and abandonment. In addition. Perennials.. plantations and pastures exhibit vast differences in their effects on neighboring ecosystems.PATTERN TO PROCESS IN THE AMAZON REGION 85 These issues then beg a very interesting suite of LUCC questions concerning the factors that cause deforestation rates to vary from year to year. 2000). (1997) showed that biomass collapse along forest edges follows a linear gradient from the pasture to 100 meters into the forest with increased selective mortality of large trees out to 300 meters (Laurance et al. or topological relationships. 1997). either between different natural covers or between natural and disturbed covers. 5 Multiple Facets of Land Cover Change: An Example Situation from Amazonia Simple. spatial relationships. through extraction or degradations (e. fragment a region’s remaining forests and can result in escaped fires moving into standing forests. often supported by or in close proximity to selective logging operations. therefore. Many forests are revisited several times. selective logging or burning) is important to human use of forest natural capital. Such changes are highly significant to ecosystem structure and function. Moreover. and (3) developing an improved quantitative and diagnostic capability to determine the factors (ergo the so-called Human Dimensions) which control rates of clearing and regrowth. Escaped fires burn the understory of neighboring forest for thousands of meters (Cochrane 2001). The landscape at any given time is not simply a collection of land covers but may represent a legacy of previous disturbances that can alter future land use and cover trajectories. For example. forest-nonforest representations of the tropics miss the rich detail of forest degradation that exists and also many of the fundamental drivers that are changing these landscapes. Logging opens the canopy and allows these forests to rapidly lose moisture and dry out. alteration within forests. Laurance et al.g.. The resolution of such questions depends completely on: (1) making fine temporal resolution measurements (annually) of deforestation rates over large areas using satellite remote sensing. .4 CHANGES INDUCED WITHIN COVER CLASSES WITHOUT RESULTING IN OUTRIGHT TRANSFORMATION OR CONVERSION Fourth. while selective logging and other human actions degrade intact forests but do not result immediately in an outright conversion (Uhl et al. There is a linkage between land conversion. binary. 4. 1993). Moreover.. (2) making fine spatial and temporal scale analyses of the dynamics of land use and cover change in order to document if regrowth is a significant factor. when loggers return to harvest additional lucrative tree species as regional timber markets develop (Uhl et al. Fire-maintained agricultural activities. between land use and land cover types influence both the dynamics of change and ecosystem impacts. selective logging and forest fire in many regions of the tropics. the use of general classes of land cover as homogeneous classes masks the fact that gradients exist for important biophysical attributes and that boundaries between classes are not abrupt. 1999). forest fragmentation related disturbance is often larger in area than forest loss in any given region (Skole and Tucker. sharply drawn boundaries may represent a critical loss of information.. forest burning can result in a positive feedback wherein subsequent fires become both more frequent and severe until complete deforestation results (Cochrane et al.

. forested firebreaks. how should the sampling be conducted and weighted in order to provide accurate LCLUC estimates? Skole et al.. In the Amazon. 2000. without use of any region-specific information. Cochrane and Laurance. 1999). 1997. Cochrane and Schulze.. Logging and fire damage have combined to create a vast pool of tropical forests that are neither intact nor completely destroyed but which may have 10-80% reduced on-site live biomass/carbon storage (Uhl et al. Veríssimo et al. reduce on-site biomass and lead to extensive invasion of vines and grasses (Uhl and Kauffman. Barber and Schweithelm. 2002). 1998). (1997) showed that random sampling was not appropriate because LCLUC was not randomly distributed and put forth a targeted sampling scheme based on data from existing high-resolution maps of the Amazon. allowing fire contagion to spread more easily across the landscape. based on previous deforestation maps and key informant input. which was formerly made up of flammable islands of vegetation surrounded by green.. Now. Cochrane and Schulze. The question however is. 1992). As selective logging and periodic forest fires occur. to estimate LCLUC. Matricardi 2003). 1999). Landscape fragmentation and land cover change interact synergistically to expose more of the forest to fire and consequently raise the risk of unintended fires occurring across the entire landscape (Cochrane 2001. (2002) have used a pan-tropical sampling. Veríssimo et al. More recently. 6 An Opportunity to Develop New Remote Sensing Methods Given the concern resulting from the high global rates of deforestation and the largely unquantified rates of forest degradation in the tropics. estimation of LCLUC through spatial sub-sampling has been put forth as a reasonable alternative. Due to the sheer size of the area involved. becomes increasingly porous. Coarse– resolution data are manageable and can provide some information about land cover change in the tropics but it has become increasingly apparent that many of the changes and actual LCLUC processes occur at finer scales. there has been much interest in quantifying. At present. the FAO Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) is proposing to use a stratified sampling method that is strictly geographic. 1990. 1989. this approach of using a select subset of known important imagery to estimate deforestation for the entire region has been used as rapid evaluation tool and precursor to complete basin-wide coverage for several years now (INPE 2002). increasing fuel loads and increasing fire severity (Cochrane et al. 1999). The need for quality high-resolution land cover information is critical the world over. 1999. These forests become very degraded and may have 40 – 50% of their canopy cover destroyed (Uhl and Vieira. mapping and understanding the processes of land cover and land use change. 1997. NASA is currently compiling a dataset of Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery for the entire globe for the year 2000. Although annual. high-resolution mapping would be ideal. wall-to-wall. 1999. the logistical. Therefore. To address the perceived needs of the science community. Veríssimo and Amaral. the use of remotely sensed satellite data is the only practical approach for studying these changes over large areas. 1992.. Achard et al. technical and financial challenges make it impractical at the present time. Cochrane 2003). Janeczek 1999.86 SKOLE ET AL. At . Return logging and fire can combine to dramatically change forest structure. thousands of square kilometers of tropical forests are logged each year in the tropics (Nepstad et al. This can initiate a positive feedback of increasing fire susceptibility (Cochrane and Schulze. the landscape matrix.

As far as we know. there is no way of evaluating the utility or accuracy of these sampling schemes since there is no ‘known’ land cover change “population set” to which the samples are being compared.PATTERN TO PROCESS IN THE AMAZON REGION 87 present. It is important to realize that logging in these forests is normally very selective with only a few of the most lucrative species and larger trees being extracted. these are the first and only comprehensive assessments of the full suite of disturbances in the basin. The original data used for the deforestation mapping described above were first visually inspected at full resolution for evidence of possible logging operations. This post-classification change analysis produces average annual rates of deforestation between benchmark years as well as an inventory of regenerating forest at each year. Logging detection requires a technique which maps changes within the forest class and is. These data were georeferenced by co-registration to the Earthsat GeoCover database. non-forest/deforested.1 METHOD: DEFORESTATION. clouds. Approximately 220 individual Landsat scenes were acquired to cover the entire region for the benchmark years 1992. given cloud cover problems. Individual classified images were then merged to form a seamless map for the entire region. thus. Detailed site and ground studies reveal that most areas with logging intensities above 10 cubic meters per hectare are detectable (Matricardi 2003). In this section of the paper we describe our approach and results. These measurements provided digital maps of the extent of deforestation. 1996. 7 Measurement of Deforestation and Degradation in Amazonia We utilized the Landsat series of satellites to measure the area and location of deforestation. 7. Rates of net deforestation were tabulated by overlay comparison of each year as separate data layers in a geographic information system. All images acquired were as close to these dates as possible. This logging activity frequently leaves behind visible roads and log storage patios. and the majority of images used were on or within one year of the benchmark years. different than that performed for deforestation mapping. which is a collection of data for the mid 1990s purchased by NASA under the Data Purchase Program directed at the Stennis Space Center. cloud shadow. and then reduced to 7 distinct classes: forest. AND LOGGING MAPPING The entire Legal Amazon was mapped using Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhance Thematic Mapper data. and water. ISODATA in the ERDAS image processing software). The analysis followed the technique .g. Each image was processed by simple unsupervised classification clustering techniques (e. This process was repeated for each benchmark year and simple summary statistics were tabulated which provided an inventory of the total area deforested and the total area in regeneration for each year. REGENERATION. following the methods described by Janeczek (1999). Additional tests were performed to evaluate the efficacy of visual screening compared to radiometric measurements using automatic methods. cerrado. Registration to true earth coordinates was within 80 meters. and 1999 (2001 is forthcoming). 1996 and 1999. regrowth and selective logging throughout the Amazon basin in Brazil for the years 1992. regrowth and logging and are being distributed on the world wide web. Scenes where logging activity was suspected were removed from the full dataset for further analysis. regeneration.

it is rapidly turning over.324 km2. 8 Results Figure 1 shows a map of the current areas of forest and deforestation in Amazonia. textural and buffer analyses were merged for each benchmark year. In areas of less intense. Preliminary work and previous analyses suggested that while this pool size of regeneration remains rather stable. Figure 2 shows the map of current areas under logging. The automated technique was excellent at detecting newer logging areas and smaller regions of logging activity but was increasingly poor at detecting logging patios from logging that was older than 1 year due to rapid forest regrowth.686 km2 in 1999. Logging and deforestation/regeneration datasets were then merged to produce a composite result. . in a state of regeneration. which showed that trees extracted during logging operations came from a radius of 180 meters around logging patios. Subsequent to the automated detection.445 km2 in 1996 and 485. more selective. Hence.88 SKOLE ET AL. and hence. the total area deforested has more than doubled since the last reporting in the literature. Intercomparison of the techniques using multitemporal analyses of series of annual images for case study sites showed that the methods had different strengths and both were conservative. and other indicators of logging activity. degraded by logging. These data extend the results of Skole and Tucker (1993) which indicated the total area deforested in 1988 was 230. indicating the total area deforested. detailed visual analysis was conducted as well. and under logging for each of the three benchmark years. 40% for 1992. The total area deforested increased from 332.563 km2 in 1992 to 399. described by Janeczek (1999) and Matricardi (2003). Logging areas were visually traced using the full resolution image and heads-up digitizing. We used the work of Souza and Barreto (2000). roads. areas in regeneration may stay in that class only for 2-5 years before they are reconverted to the deforested class. 1996. If annual imagery for a site exists then the automated technique would be sufficient for tracking logging activity but in areas where multiple years between images occur then a combined automated and visual approach is best. areas of logging were evaluated by digital image processing using a spectral texture analysis technique (Matricardi 2003) that identified areas of significant logging by detecting the specific location of logging patios. to delineate the buffer area around logging infrastructure which was logged. Field sampling by our team confirmed that this approach was valid for the areas with the most intense logging which account for the vast majority of Amazonian timber extraction. 35%. Conversely. Areas were also compared with the maps of deforestation and regeneration to ensure that any plot of land was classified as only one type disturbance in order to prevent any double counting. First. the visual detection was less precise at delineating the actual areas logged and missed many of the smaller regions of logging but it was better at detection of older areas of logging activity. logging. Table 1 presents summary results from this analysis. 1999 respectively) is in some stage of regeneration. Of the area deforested approximately 30-40% (30%. Our results suggest approximately 13% of the forested portion of the Amazon Legal has been converted to deforested land. patios were found to be more widely spaced and buffer distances from which trees were drawn were found to exceed 400 meters at times (Matricardi 2003). The data layers developed from the visual.

and 16. close agreement with their estimates for the period 1992-1996. deforestation rates appear to have risen rapidly in recent years.2 x 103 km2 yr-1. The fact that the total area of ongoing forest regeneration is increasing suggests an increased land-use-dependent carbon sink which. The analyses show that the area of regenerating forest increased over the time period of analysis (Table 1). Compared to estimated deforestation rates for the previous decade (Skole and Tucker. even while there is significant inter-annual variation.17. although having little or no net effect on carbon sequestration. The rates for the period 1996-1999 are somewhat higher than those being reported by the Brazilian space agency (INPE 2002). which reports deforestation rates of 13. is also interesting in that it may . There is. can serve to dampen regional carbon fluxes to the atmosphere in some years (Houghton et al. although we are slightly lower than their average of 19. 1993). Most of the deforestation is concentrated in areas of historical deforestation along a crescent along the southern fringe of the closed-canopy forest zone.1996. 2000). we note that.7 x 103 km2 yr-1 for the period 1996 to 1999. Mato Gross and Rondonia. Areas of deforestation are shown as white dots and outlines. The average annual conversion rate was 28. the relative synchrony or asynchrony characterizing new deforestation and the re-clearing of regenerating forests is unknown. At present.2 .. although over time. regenerating vegetation on previous agriculture sites is usually re-cleared.70 x 103 km2 yr-1 for the period 1992 . however. The increase over time in the relative amount of area in some form of regeneration. This suggests that the area of the Amazon acting as a sink for carbon during any given year has increased. Most intensive deforestation occurs in the states of Para. Results from deforestation and regeneration mapping for 1999. as compared to the total deforested area.4 x 103 km2 yr-1. generating a source that off-sets the temporary sink.PATTERN TO PROCESS IN THE AMAZON REGION 89 Figure 1.

1 x 103 km2.. but remains a relatively small impact in terms of total area disturbed compared to the . In such cases.90 SKOLE ET AL. Results from the mapping of areas of degradation by selective logging for the year 1999. and at 6 x 103 km2 was only ~2% the magnitude of the deforested area. increasing percentages of areas in regeneration may indicate decreased productivity of land yielding higher rates of abandonment or earlier shifting to fallow. Since 1992. the area under selective logging has increased markedly to 26. The total area under logging was relatively small in 1992. in part. there has been a dramatic increase in both logging and fire in Amazonian forests. portend ongoing changes in land use. human behavior and landscape level response to human activity. with additional logging in Mato Grosso. Figure 2. In addition. The total area subjected to selective logging is shown in Table 1. it is highly likely that logged areas are rapidly converted to deforestation and hence those areas get mapped in the deforestation mapping procedure. Both of these forest degradations can change the spectral signature of forests to appear similar to regenerating forests (Cochrane et al. Therefore. For example. The individual locations of logging areas are shown as black outlines and dots. It seems unlikely that logging was a major disturbance factor prior to 1992. since the early 1990s. Rondonia had logging in 1999 but it was not detected in any previous years. the increasing percentages of regeneration may reflect growing stocks of highly degraded forest within the Amazonian landscape (UNEP 2002). 1999). Most of the logging is occurring in regions where there is intensive deforestation in the state of Para. The Landsat images in which logging was detected are shown shaded in gray. The results from analysis of logging present an interesting picture and also portray the increasing magnitude of degradation in addition to outright deforestation.

These results are shown in Table 1 and suggest that the current rate of new primary forest disturbed by selective logging is 12 x 103 km2 yr-1.0 26. Moreover.6 Regeneration area 104. we calculated the rate of new logging each year using map overlays. 1992-1996 and 1996-1999.0 16. some observers suggest this impact could be significant. and logging – but a new picture is emerging which should put to rest some erroneous conclusions and myths.9 10.7 5. logging sites can be ephemeral.1 28. At the present time. both of these factors interact with fire and fragmentation to exacerbate the total magnitude of disturbance (Cochrane 2003).0 Rate of deforestation Rate of new logging 3. Our analysis indicates that as much as 56 x 103 km2 may have been affected by logging over between 1992 and 1999.4 162. these two important factors interact synergistically to catalyze disturbance in the Amazon. There has already been considerable additional work on the role of fire. Unlike deforested areas. The annual rate of new logging in undisturbed primary forests is shown for each observation year. they rapidly regenerate and after several years logging activity is not detectable using current satellite imagery. If left undisturbed. However. Both logging and deforestation are driving land cover change.0 485. which can be added to the results reported here (Cochrane 2003). area in regeneration. Also shown are average annual rates of primary forest conversion to deforestation for the periods. field studies and detailed inter-annual analyses in case study sites.7 169. or approximately half (42%) the rate of deforestation.PATTERN TO PROCESS IN THE AMAZON REGION 91 total area cleared for pasture and other conversions from deforestation. 9 Concluding Remarks We are beginning to gain a more complete picture of land cover change in Amazonia. this is still only 12% of the total area deforested. these studies differentiate those detected logging areas which are new from those which are re-used between successive time periods. and may eventually or immediately be converted to permanent clearings by deforestation. The implications are significant. and area under logging for the observation years 1992. Thus. The results reported here only treat three aspects of the overall problem of measuring change in this important region – deforestation.3 Logging area 6. Table 1. Areas producing logs may be used for several years. Actual mapping of the locations of forest burning and relation of the spatial aspects and interactions with other land uses has lead to an appreciation of the dynamic changes being caused by this growing disturbance in the . Total deforested area.8 1996 399. regeneration. It is easy to see a future with considerably more disturbance than anytime in the past. (units are 103 km2 and 103 km2 yr-1) Disturbance type 1992 Deforested area 332. as described in Matricardi (2003).9 1999 The rate of selective logging in primary forests has increased dramatically in recent years. While not a significant disturbance prior to 1999. 1996 and 1999 for the Brazilian Legal Amazon. logging now represents roughly 30% of the total disturbance in Amazonian forests.7 11. It is important to know the actual area of primary forest that is disturbed each year by logging.

Other work in formulation will focus on the fate of logged areas. 2002) have projected future forest change using a GIS modeling approach to assess the effects of future road infrastructures as well as conservation and development projects. Claims that significant areas of selective logging in Amazonia remain undetected due to logging’s “cryptic” signature and. Through this progression. in large part. experience from this analysis has shown that prior claims that logging was a large and unaccounted carbon flux were largely overstated because of the absence of direct measurements. for a complete picture of change in Amazonia. However. Amazon (Cochrane et al. hence.. that significant carbon fluxes are missing in current carbon accounting methods need to be thoroughly tested in future work. both within years and between years. This work will be important additional information. but more work is needed to spatialize the econometric modeling and directly couple it to remote sensing. particularly for prognostic forecasting. 1999. Ongoing work. show that only areas with very low harvest intensity (<10 m3ha-1) remain undetectable. The focus of the results reported here were. is focused on quantification of fragmentation.. to augment past work on deforestation. and is also precisely defining the detection limits of the remote sensing methods we currently use. these observations and measurements will need to be incorporated into models which include the various agents which deforest or degrade the Amazon forested landscape. Our results to date. With considerable work ahead. 2001. Nonetheless. Cochrane and his colleagues (Laurance et al. and that previous estimates of deforestation were not significantly underestimating the role of logging. on advancing the measurement of change into the domain of degradation. small holders and many additional demographic and economic factors. Her results from this econometric analysis agree quite closely with the GIS-modeling of Laurance et al (2001). There has been very significant progress on this research front already.92 SKOLE ET AL. Zhou (2002) has modeled future deforestation rates in an econometric framework that takes into account ranchers. . Matricardi (2003) has made considerable progress on this research front. Cochrane 2003). The next round of research on fire will need to focus on exact mapping of the area burned and its annual variation. Verissimo et al. extending from the results reported here. techniques which will utilize continuous fields rather than discrete classification of land cover. Lastly. edge effects. and biomass collapse as another form of degradation. future work is needed to develop improved measures of degradation through the use of forest fractional cover. a solid basis for quantification and analysis of the full suite of forest impacts in Amazonia has been provided. The minimal disturbance of these forests therefore also limits their importance as a significant carbon sources. and similar claims with respect to biomass collapse also need careful scrutiny and measurement. Cochrane 2001. miners. Using a completely different approach. loggers... however. Through the use of direct measurements. since there is speculation that the area of edge with biomass collapse in Amazonia is important for estimating carbon budgets (Laurance et al. 1998). our capability to model and predict the complex dynamics of forest change in the Amazon is being brought to life. we conclude that this has only recently been the case. it is nonetheless important to reflect on the value of recent efforts within the LCLUC program. Although logging is becoming an important forest impact. The knowledge of land cover and land use change processes and patterns are enhanced by the increased spatial resolution and growing temporal depth of the available information.

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As part of the NASA Land Cover Land Use Change Program (LCLUC) and the Central Africa Regional Program for the Environment (CARPE). LIN1. Indices for estimating the intensity of timber harvesting are also in development. we will describe how multi-temporal and multi-sensor remote sensing observations and techniques have been integrated with in-situ data for habitat mapping. JACQUELINE LEMOIGNE2.). Box 296. insuring that research findings are incorporated in the forest management plans at the national level. NW. College Park. private logging companies. http://www. Building 28. Equatorial Guinea. Gabon. TIFFANY S. This project has been focused on developing remote sensing products for the needs of forest conservation and management. providing a new monitoring tool for the national forest service. MIROSLAV HONZÁK4 The Woods Hole Research Center. Gutman et al. MD 20742 USA 4 Conservation International. P. Code 935. Central African Republic. While these results suggest promise for mapping and monitoring Central Africa’s forests using Landsat imagery. Land Change Science. 97 G. Applied Information Sciences Branch. Using time-series of Landsat imagery. and Republic of Congo). have been produced in collaboration with different stakeholders in order to promote better forest management practices in the region. . Printed in the Netherlands. for example. (eds.O. LAPORTE1. Democratic Republic of Congo. MA 02543 USA NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. an “Integrated Forest Monitoring System” (NASA-INFORMS project. as well as deforestation assessment around population centers. Greenbelt. Maps of forest types. In this chapter. Department of Geography. we have mapped the expansion of logging activities in the northern Republic of Congo. DC 20036 USA 2 1 1 Introduction Characterizing and mapping land cover and land use change in the rain forests of Central African is a complex process. Washington. Woods Hole. © 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. and the limited institutional capacity to implement mapping and monitoring activities. This complexity is marked by the diversity of land use practices across six different countries (Cameroon. additional data sets and development of new data processing approaches are needed to improve land cover characterization and forest monitoring. We will provide examples of such techniques—one that used a hybrid method combining radar and optical remote sensing to describe vegetation types in Gabon and another that attempted to discriminate different levels of above-ground forest biomass in southern Cameroon using radar data alone.whrc. MD 20771 USA 3 University of Maryland. and conservation organizations. logging monitoring. and biomass estimation. 1919 M Street. the lack of full and continuous cloud-free coverage by any single optical remote sensing instrument. 97–110. DIDIER DEVERS3.org/africa) was established in close collaboration with national forest services.CHAPTER 6 TOWARDS AN OPERATIONAL FOREST MONITORING SYSTEM FOR CENTRAL AFRICA NADINE T.

2000. 1998). industrial logging opens up previously remote parts of the forest to human access and thus commercial hunting (Robinson et al.000 are endemic (IUCN. The ‘mutual economic dependency’ between the forest hunter-gathers people (providing bushmeat and medicinal products) and the sedentary Bantu (producing crops) is ancient (Joiris and Bahuchet.. Recent studies suggest that.. 1992). deforestation rates had also increased due to attractive market prices for cacao. harboring over 400 mammal species. One-third of the total population of Central Africa lives in the tropical rain forest. During the same period. and at least 10. In Central Africa. 2002). 1996).. Of the 24 million people. 1993). more than 1.. Riitters et al. 2000). 2000).. the growing of sedentary population and land use practice around logging towns also increases the overall rate of deforestation in the region. 1999)..000 plant species. farmers clear between 0.. 1998).8 million km2) after the Amazon (Laporte et al. and mature forest. fishing.. and trapping. However. Wrangham et al. Central Africa contains the world’s second largest block of tropical rain forest (c. secondary forest. and few plantations (Brou Yao et al. 1998). Morever. Kellman et al. 1990). species richness and ecosystem resilience of the forest are dependent on the presence and/or abundance of keystone animal species (e. with the arrival of industrial logging. total wood production in Ivory Coast had decreased by 50% (Durrieu de Madrone et al..000 species of birds. The history of deforestation in West and East Africa provides an important lesson for forest conservation and management in Central Africa. It is also a center of biological diversity. hunting pressure on wildlife populations is strong as Central Africa is one of the poorest regions in the world..5-3. 2000). of which about 3. However. While rain forests in West and East Africa already have been reduced to fragments (Brou Yao et al. reserves. Many tree species depend on animals for seed dispersal. resulting in a relatively high and localized population density (c. for example. creating a mosaic of degraded vegetation in which new fields are intermingled with older fields of 2-3 years old.. Ivory Coast’s old-growth rain forests are found only in parks. Central Africa is the largest carbon reservoir on the continent (Faure and Faure. Central Africa still contains the largest tracks of old-growth forest in the continent (Laporte et al. the role of elephants and primates in seed dispersal is well documented (White 1994a. after disturbances. 50 inhabitants per km2).0 ha of forest per family every year. Coupled with timber extraction. estimated 3 million from 150 different ethnic groups depend strictly on the forest ecosystems for their livelihoods (Bahuchet et al. Under the combined pressure of increased population and favorable economic markets.. the hunter-gathers are spending increasingly more time working for the logging companies and/or providing cheap labor for commercial hunting. most Bantu have been living along the road network. fallows. unlimited cheap labor from neighboring countries. 1994. the future of the Central African rain forest could follow a similar path if the national governments do not adequately plan for the long-term management of their rich forests. Hawthorne and Parren. 1. This . Since colonization. 1998).98 2 The Central Africa Region LAPORTE ET AL. 2000). Today. the same situation is true in Ghana and Uganda (Laporte et al. and a stable political situation that promoted the agricultural sector (Durrieu de Madrone et al. These forest hunter-gathers—commonly referred to as pygmies—entertain cultural and commercial exchange with the dominant ethnic groups—diverse populations of Bantu and Ubanguians who traditionally rely on swidden agriculture.g. Between mid-1970 and mid-1990.

9 0. White.6 4. Utilizing 1990 1-km AVHRR satellite images. Today.1 11 3 3 65 80 66 23 9 11 61 48 61 From CARPE CD-ROM and based on 1990 population Annual rate in percent from FAO Tropical Forest Assessment (http://www. In the following sections.35 1. n. These coarse-scale maps are useful for ..6 0.. 2003). population.2. including Landsat optical and JERS-1 radar data.4. we will provide some case studies on the utility of high-resolution imagery. for mapping land cover and monitoring land use change associated with farming and logging. is commercial logging.2 Cameroon Central African Republic (CAR) Dem.9 7. the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Congo still contain extensive amounts of unlogged forests. 2000).2 2. 1994b). 41% of the rain forests in Central Africa have been allocated for timber extraction. 0. 1988. 1998) (5) From the most recent national forest service databases (changes are underway in Gabon. of Congo (1) (2) 15 3. of Congo (DRC) Equatorial Guinea Gabon Rep. Table 1 summarizes statistics on population and land use per country. 1998).8 15. 1998). and MODIS (Hansen et al. is difficult to monitor using low-resolution satellite imagery.4.3 0. Population (millions) (1) Population Density (per km2) 27.OPERATIONAL FOREST MONITORING FOR CENTRAL AFRICA 99 complex agro-system mosaic.. it was estimated that farmers had converted more than 12% of the original forest in Central Africa (Laporte et al.1 Road Density (km/km2) (3) Forest Cover (%) (4) Agriculture & Fallow (%) (4) Logging (%) (5) 5 3 37 10 14 10 31 6 51 18.fao. 0. and Congo) 3 Habitat Mapping and Land Cover Change Assessment for Forest Conservation and Management: Sangha Tri-National Park Case Study The needs for forest monitoring are urgent in Central Africa.6.6. These statistics are.jsp) (3) From CARPE CD-ROM (http://carpe.edu) (4) Derived from AVHRR analyses of the 1990s (Laporte et al.5 5.4 3 48 4 18 0. however.org/forestry/fo/fra/index. Recent estimates of deforestation using 8-km AVHRR data underestimated the rates of change due to the patchiness of forest loss in this region (Defries et al.5 Deforestation Rate 1980s-1990s 1990-2000s(2) 0. the most extensive land use in the region.. 0. 0.umd. National institutions in the region lack the most basic information to make land use decision and policy. Rep. Table 1. uncertain and in need of improved accuracy.. SPOT vegetation (Mayaux et al. however.3 0. Statistics on the forest. and road network of Central Africa.. Currently. with an average size of clearing in the order of one hectare. While most of the forests in Cameroon and Gabon have been logged at least once (Reitsma. 2003). 0. DRC.6. Recent vegetation maps produced for the region were generated from low-resolution satellite imagery including AVHRR (Laporte et al.s 0.

Time series of Landsat imagery used to monitor logging in northern Republic of Congo from the 1970s to the 2000s.100 LAPORTE ET AL. Although the two Landsat scenes were classified . and.3). Path-Row 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 181-58 n/a 1986-01-16 n/a 2000-03-03 2002-01-20 181-59 n/a 1984-09-07 1999-11-12 n/a 182-58 1979-03-18 1986-12-09 1990-11-26 *2001-02-09 2002-04-01 182-59 1976-04-20 1986-12-09 1990-12-28 1999-02-12 2000-09-18 *2001-02-09 2001-05-16 For this case study. a new vegetation map was produced for the Sangha Tri-National Park.2). Moreover. Given the presence of heavy cloud cover and atmospheric haze in most of the Landsat scenes. In this section.1 FOREST HABITAT MAPPING Biodiversity conservation depends strongly on the management of both protected areas and their buffer zones.1). In collaboration with CARPE partners (Wildlife Conservation Society. Unfortunately.. we used fourteen images of the Landsat Thematic Mapper (Table 2). various combinations of spectral bands were used to generate land cover maps from “semiunsupervised” classification. In most of Central Africa.g. changes in land cover associated with agricultural expansion are occurring at such a fine scale that only high-resolution imagery can provide accurate estimates on the extent and the rate of land cover and land use change. 30 meters). only 10%. These results include a new land cover map for the Sangha Tri-National Park (section 3. Ground control points collected at road intersections or other land features were used to assess the accuracy of geo-referencing.000 km2. deforestation rates around major population centers (section 3. The highest locational error was in the order of 1-pixel (c.. 1996). The viability of wildlife populations is not likely to be sustainable if the parks are connected by corridors (e. a new landscape approach has been adopted to reduce forest loss by increasing natural resource management capacity and by creating corridors between parks. in most of Central Africa. such as deforestation. Table 2. very little is known about the distribution of vegetation types and associated threats. “Projet de Gestion des Ecosystèmes Périphériques au Parc National Nouabalé-Ndoki). These images were geographically co-referenced to the GEOCOVER products. which are orthorectified Landsat scenes produced by the Earth Satellite Corporation (EarthSat). 3. or 180. 2001). and forest fragmentation. 1998). Oates. the park system is very fragmented. we will describe how the NASA-INFORMS project produced crucial information for the forest management of northern Republic of Congo. the monitoring of logging road progression (section 3. but they are poorly adapted to forest management needs at the landscape level (Demaze et al. monitoring land cover at the regional level. forest degradation. As part of the USAID-Central Africa Regional Program for the Environment (CARPE). is currently protected (Laporte et al. While forest covers roughly 45% of Central Africa. * denotes images used for land cover mapping of the Sangha TriNational Park.

The distribution and extent of this prime seasonal foraging habitat for wildlife lays on a south-to-north gradient. . and the Lobeké Reserve (Cameroon). 4. and an extensive network of logging roads now surrounds the Sangha Tri-National Park (Figure 1). Several iterations were performed to separate different forest types. 1994a). the evergreen monodominant Gilbertiodendron devewrei forest occurs in large patches mainly in the Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park. structure. each cluster was assigned to a thematic class based on a pre-defined legend established with end-users (park managers and forest service). this increase of access into the intact forests is recognized as one of the most critical factors leading to large-scale biodiversity loss. The resulting map. Conversely. Distribution. the Sangha Tri-National Park was one of the most remote places on Earth. with a large population of Aka and Baka forest people (Moukassa. Percent land cover of the Sangha Tri-National Park complex. For example. with 18 different land cover & land use categories. and the clustering results were aggregated into 18 classes based on spectral separability and contextual information. the aggregated image was filtered using a 4-pixel sieve filter. and 5 and an ISOCLUS algorithm. The first step consisted of masking of clouds. and water using mainly band 3. and 5. resulting in demographic change and population booms in logging towns. The second step consisted of running unsupervised classification on the cloud-free data using various combinations of bands 2. Today.2 LOGGING MONITORING Until recently. In some cases. while the semi-evergreen mixed species forest is the dominant habitat in all three sections of the park complex. and phenology of vegetation are the most important determinants of wildlife population distribution and density (White. cloud shadow. 4. the general procedures remained the same. the Loundoungou concession. industrial logging has been attracting migrant workers from across Central Africa. 2001). Since 1970s. manual editing was performed when two habitats important for wildlife management could not be differentiated based on their spectral signatures. savanna habitat is found only in the Dzanga-Sangha Special Reserve (Central African Republic). It also provides important baseline information for comparing the extents of different habitats across the Sangha Tri-National Park (Table 3). Land Cover Type Semi-evergreen mixed species forest Evergreen Gilbertiodendron dewevrei forest Swamp and marsh Savanna (include forest-savanna transition) Others Nouabalé-Ndoki 73 23 3 0 1 Dzanga-Sangha 89 5 3 2 1 Lac Lobeké 85 9 5 0 1 3. Nine logging companies are active in northern Congo. with the highest percent cover and the largest stands found in the Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park (Republic of Congo). This map is thus useful for modeling the distribution of wildlife populations. is a significant step towards better characterization of wildlife habitats in the area. 3.OPERATIONAL FOREST MONITORING FOR CENTRAL AFRICA 101 independently. Finally. Table 3. Then. where clusters of less than 4-pixels were merged with the largest nearest neighboring cluster.

Road access into remote forest is often followed by an increase in commercial hunting that. logged between 1998 and 1999. (Refer to Section 3. the total number of trees harvested was correlated with the proportion of various land cover types mapped using a dry season Landsat ETM+ imagery of 2001. roads were digitized to monitor the progression of logging in northern Congo and to identify areas potentially threatened by poaching. in terms of number of trees harvested per unit area.000 ha area in the Kabo concession. Currently. we found that logging intensity was most strongly correlated with the total amount of exploitable . To date. Road network mapped using Landsat imagery two years post-harvesting from the 1970s to 2001.. the road network had increased by 176 km in the Lopola concession and 165 km in the Mokabi concession.000 km of logging roads—twice the total length of the primary roads in the entire country (Laporte and Lin.) Of all land cover types. can threaten wildlife populations (Robinson et al. Using a time-series of Landsat satellite imagery (Table 2).102 LAPORTE ET AL. Between 2001 and 2002. For each parcel. Monitoring the expansion of logging roads is an important part of wildlife conservation in Central Africa. if not properly managed and controlled. 2000. Number of trees removed per 50-ha harvesting parcel was obtained from CIB (Congolaise Industrielle du Bois) for a 9. was also estimated using Landsat imagery. new roads are being built at a rate of more than 100 km per year per logging company. this amounts to more than 5. Figure 1. 1999). and 2001 (RGB543). Base map was created using Landsat-7 ETM+ images of 1999. The intensity of logging. We also tracked the total extent of roads constructed since the beginning of industrial logging in the 1970s. 2003).1 for details on the vegetation mapping.

with a population of approximately 18. 100 y = 0. New forest clearings were created as the amount of 15-20 year-old young . the operation center for the Danzer logging company. from old secondary forest that had only been selectively logged in the past. However. p < 0. and Ngomb—in the vicinity of the Nouabalé-Ndoki Nation al Park. Pokola. and Ngombe are logging towns located along the Sangha River. It is now the headquarters of CIB. which probably had been cleared previously or was highly degraded.68 Percentage of exploitable forest per 50-ha harvesting unit 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Number of trees harvested Figure 2. Managing more than 1. Estimating logging intensity with Landsat imagery two years post-harvesting (n = 143. a town of c. which remains the main communication network between settlements. is an old administrative town and a center of bushmeat trade (Thuret. Kabo. therefore. Ngombe. Ouesso was already surrounded by a large area of young secondary forest (c. Little is known on the current rate and extent of land cover conversion from forests to agro-systems. had limited area of young secondary forest. r2 = 0. 3. one of the largest industrial logging companies in the region. 30 km2).59. we focused on comparing deforestation in the last decade around four major population centers—Ouesso. In this case study. Most of the conversion to farmland and “urban” land cover in the last decade was. consequently reduces the pressure of creating new forest clearings. the population in Pokola has increased to over 7.000. Between 1990 and 2001.3 MONITORING DEFORESTATION Northern Congo has been undergoing various degrees of deforestation. In 1990. 2001). on the other hand. Kabo. With a loggingdriven economy. has an unknown population size but is considerably smaller than Pokola. with “exploitable” being defined by the logging companies as the extent of terra firma semi-evergreen mixed species forest (Figure 2). the greatest forest loss occurred around the two larger towns of Ouesso and Pokola. Pokola was a small fishing village with only a few hundred inhabitants.68x + 26. CIB also operates from Kabo. This “degraded” or “regrowth” forest is typically preferred for shifting cultivation or housing conversion. Pokola. Pokola.000 (Moukassa.OPERATIONAL FOREST MONITORING FOR CENTRAL AFRICA 103 forest.01). 1997). marked differences exist in the pattern of deforestation between the two. Until the 1970s. Ouesso.400 (Moukassa.5 million hectares of forests. 2001). 1.

4 Testing New Approaches for Land Cover Mapping and Biomass Estimation Central Africa. including riparian and Marantaceae forest. note that. acquired on May 1. 6) Burnt Savanna. The objective was to map eight different vegetation types for the Lopé Reserve in Gabon: 1) Montane Forest. This observation corresponds to the fact that more people in Ouesso rely on farming for their livelihood than in Pokola.5 meters in height.e. but the increase in farmland in Pokola is only a third of the increase in “urban” build-up. 2) Mixed Forest—pluri-stratum stand with at least 3 different tree heights. Landsat).1) as well as biomass estimation using radar imagery (section 4. 1988. 4) Savanna in the range of 1 to 1. could compensate for the lack of good Landsat coverage in the coastal region of Central Africa where heavy cloud cover traditionally limits the use of highresolution optical data. we tested this concept of data fusion using 6-m SAR data and 30-m Landsat imagery in the pilot study. the lower resolution data (30-m) was a subset of the Landsat TM imagery of Path 185-Row 60.1 FUSION OF SAR AND OPTICAL DATA FOR LAND COVER MAPPING OF THE LOPE RESERVE Figure 3 illustrates the idea where the fusion of high-resolution radar data and lowresolution optical data is able to yield land cover maps of equivalent or better quality than those created by high-resolution optical data alone. Ngombe. lacks full and continuous cloud-free coverage by any single high-resolution optical remote sensing instrument (i. in Ouesso. if successful. While our future work will involve comparing land cover classification using JERS and MODIS data combined with that using Landsat data alone. 3) Okoumé Forest— mono-stratum stand with trees of similar diameters and heights. . it is crucial to develop multi-sensor hybrid approaches to characterize land cover types and to monitor human pressure on the forests. we will describe pilot studies of habitat mapping using radar and optical data combined (section 4. Furthermore. with more “diffuse” land cover conversion in Ouesso and more “compact” conversion in the immediate vicinity of Pokola. secondary forests was limited around Pokola. The spatial pattern of land cover also differs between the administrative town and the logging towns. 4. The higher resolution data (6-m) was extracted from a SAR image acquired from the “Mission Aéroportée radar SAR” flown in 1994. 5) Fern Savanna of less than 1 meter in height. similar to many tropical regions. Such an approach. of which nearly all inhabitants are employed by CIB. The Landsat data set was resampled to 6-m resolution since it was used as the reference image and as part of the fusion. Therefore. and Kabo.2). In the following sections. the area of increase in agriculture almost equals that in bare soil.104 LAPORTE ET AL. and.

.and low-resolution data are independently decomposed using the MRA scheme. 1991) and a Mallat MRA (Mallat. which describes images in the frequency domain at multiple spatial resolutions using Multi-Resolution Analysis (MRA). it provides information about low. Landsat) were combined with high-frequency information of the highest resolution data (i. we used a Daubechies filter size 4 (Daubechies.e. However..OPERATIONAL FOREST MONITORING FOR CENTRAL AFRICA 105 Figure 3. Multi-sensor data fusion may be performed either before the classification step with a pixel-level image fusion technique. a wavelet decomposition of any given signal (1-D or 2-D) is the process which provides a complete representation of the signal according to a well-chosen division of the time-frequency (1-D) or space-frequency (2-D) plane. During the reconstruction phase. In this experiement.and high-pass filters. Figure 4 illustrates the waveletbased fusion idea. In our experiments. spectral and textural properties of the data. 1998).or decision-level (Pohl et al.and high-frequencies of the signal at successive spatial scales. Performing image fusion within a wavelet framework enables the user to fuse data selectively at various frequency components in the lower spatial resolutions while preserving spectral information of higher spatial resolutions. 1989) for both decomposition and reconstruction and for both types of data. Through iterative filtering using low.. or as a post-processing by combining multiple classification results at the feature.e. one can imagine using different filters for decomposition and reconstruction as well as for high. The results described here are based only on the use of a wavelet transform.and low-resolution data that would better preserve the spatial. Low-frequency information of the lowest spatial resolution data (i. where high.. Briefly. components from both decompositions are combined to create the new fused data. SAR) in order to take simultaneous advantage of the higher spatial and spectral resolutions. Fusion of fine-resolution radar and coarse-resolution optical imagery enables the creation of a land cover map with quality equivalent to a map created based on fine-resolution optical data alone. we performed the fusion before the classification and used a number of hybrid fusion techniques.

Our ongoing work involves data fusion of JERS and MODIS imagery compared to Landsat and to MODIS data alone. however. With the targeted number of clusters set to 10 and all other parameters being equal. Radar backscatter from forest canopies depends on wavelength. and. 4. although incomplete. LeToan et al. 1994). as well as canopy structure and wetness. investigation of different types of wavelet filters.106 LAPORTE ET AL. These clusters then were regrouped thematically into the six vegetation types described earlier. quantitative evaluation of results using in-situ data. incidence angle and polarization. Due to the lack of reliable training data sets at the time of the experiment. longer wavelength . the fused clustering shows more localized details with differentiation of the three savannas types and a different clustering of the Montane Forest versus Mixed Forest. In Central Africa. unsupervised classification was used to obtain a vegetation map from the Landsat data alone and from the fused data. Principle of the wavelet-based fusion. illustrates that a wavelet-based fusion of radar and optical data can augment a forest monitoring system for applications at the local and regional scales.2 ASSESSING FOREST BIOMASS USING JERS-1 RADAR MOSAICS Studies on changes in above-ground biomass under different land use scenarios have been focused primarily on the Amazon (e. improvements to the clustering scheme. Ranson and Sun. very little is known about the impacts of agricultural conversion and logging on carbon stocks or cycling. Generally. Although qualitatively similar. Many studies have shown positive correlation of radar backscatter to total above-ground biomass in different forest types in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g.. Figure 4. unsupervised classification using the ISOCLUS algorithm returned 9 clusters for both data sets.g. 1992. 1996). This pilot study. Fearnside and Guimaraes.

as in the case of most tropical forests in Central Africa.7.nasa. 2002). We found poor relationships between the above-ground biomass measurements and backscatter for both low and high water mosaics (Figures 5a & 5b).01. p > 0. Similar limitations have been noted in the Amazonian forests (Salas et al. Locational errors of the field sites and geographic . however. The potential for mapping forest biomass using SAR data is.15. wet season (r2 < 0. collected in 1995. were compared with the normalized backscatter of the 1996 JERS-1 mosaic produced by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (http://trfic.3673 Sigma 0 (dB) 200 -7 -7.2098Ln(x) . 5b.5 -8 Mean above ground biom ass (Mg / ha) Figures 5a.0074Ln(x) .05).5 -8 Mean above ground biom ass (Mg / ha) b) -6. limited when the forest structure is complex and the biomass level is high.jpl. b) November 1996. p < 0.05). there is evidence that cross-polarized backscatter is more sensitive to changes in biomass (Tiangco and Forester. We explored the utility of 100-m JERS-1 radar imagery for above-ground biomass estimation across a range of 1-ha plots in 61 study sites throughout southern Cameroon. Additionally. Estimating above-ground biomass with JERS-1 normalized backscatter: a) February 1996. several possible factors for the poor results. 2000).5 0 50 100 150 y = 0.5 0 50 100 150 200 y = -0. a) -6.6. There are.. The field biomass measurements. however. These findings suggest limited utility of JERS-1 radar imagery for biomass estimation across tropical Africa.gov).3258 Sigma 0 (dB) -7 -7. dry season (r2 = 0.OPERATIONAL FOREST MONITORING FOR CENTRAL AFRICA 107 (L-band) SAR imagery such as JERS-1 may be used to discriminate between different levels of forest biomass up to a certain saturation point.

Our development of an integrated forest monitoring system. Morever. 1994). mis-registration of the images could negatively affect the backscatter-biomass relationship. 1999. We continue to pursue these activities in a region that is one of the least known yet most productive and biologically diverse on earth. especially in disturbed sites.108 LAPORTE ET AL. particularly owing to resolution loss due to the resampling of the data. Lucas et al. the CARPE program. there be transfer of relevant information to policy and decision makers. These limitations included lack of technical and financial resources.. Dominique Paget). It was also unanimously recognized that remote sensing is a key component to any forest monitoring system and that. Acknowledgments. Gabon. While information derived from remote sensing products can help natural resource managers to determine optimal management practices for maintaining healthy forest ecosystems. where remote sensing technology is combined with in situ data from commercial logging and biodiversity inventories. poor access to data and information (including the internet). and lack of training facilities and opportunities. 5 Conclusions International efforts are underway to improve operational forest monitoring. The pre-processing of the JERS-1 mosaic could also have been a factor.. forest structure in these areas is highly variable. therefore. Brian Curran. However. It would not have been possible without the logistic support of the Wildlife Conservation Society (Paul Elkan and Fiona Maisels) and the Congolaise Industrielle des Bois (Olivier Desmet. JERS-1 normalized backscatter is likely to underestimate biomass of disturbed forests where a collection of numerous regenerating small trees may have the same level of biomass as a mature stand with few big trees. 2000). these activities must contribute to the better management of natural resources for the present and future generations by the residents of the region. at each stage of scientific understanding. we plan to explore the use of LIDAR waveform models. allowed us to provide crucial information for the management of the northern Congo forest ecosystem and to explore the utility of new approaches to land cover mapping. We want to thank the following individuals for generous donation of their time and their work dedicated to preserving these unique ecosystems: Steve Blake. few tropical countries have the resources to develop their own remote sensing programs. This research was supported by the NASA Land Cover Land Use Change Program and the Central Africa Regional Program for the Environment (CARPE). several issues limiting the development of operational forest monitoring systems were identified by national forest services and their international partners. we believe that the site heterogeneity was adequately characterized since the sampling method was based on that of the Cameroonian forest service designed for biomass estimation and has been proven accurate for related studies using 1-km AVHRR data (Boyd et al. Bourges Djoni- . In the future. This limitation was also noted in boreal forests (Ranson and Sun. Comparison of 1-ha plots with the 100-m JERS-1 mosaic therefore could have been negatively influenced by the high spatial heterogeneity of above-ground biomass. Ultimately. and GOFC can. Initiatives from the NASA/LCLUC program. Finally. At the first Central Africa “Global Observation of Forest Cover” workshop held in February 2000 in Libreville. which should allow improved estimates of both forest biomass and canopy structure. help to facilitate the transfer of technology to the national forest services in Central Africa.

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Djimbi, Sarah Elkan, Mike Fay, Steve Gulick, Richard Malonga, Antoine Moukassa, and Chris Wilks. We also thank Yves Dubois, Leon Embon, Patrick Geffroy, Frederic Glannaz, Jackie Glannaz, Patrice Gouala, Christian Guyonvaro, Gregoire Kossa, Tom van Loon, Alfred Tira, and Luca van Der Walt for field assistance and working towards the sustainable use of the region’s forest resources. Scott Goetz provided editorial assistance; Debra Fischman and Jeremy Goetz assisted with compiling the road network.

6 References
Bahuchet, S., F. Grewand, P. Grenand, and P. de Maîret. 2000. Les Peuples des Forêts Tropicales Aujourd’hui. Vol. I. Forêts des Tropiques, Forêts Anthropiques. Avenir des Peuples des Forêts Tropicales (APFT), Bruxelles. Boyd, D.S., G.M. Foody, and P.J. Curran. 1999. The relationship between the biomass of Cameroonian tropical forests and the middle infrared wavelengths (3.0-5.0µm). International Journal of Remote Sensing 20: 1017-1023. Brou Yao T., E. Servat, and J-E. Paturel. 2000. Evolution du couvert forestier ivoirien sur la période 19501990, en relation avec la variabilité du climat et des activités anthropiques. In M. Servant and S. Servant-Vildary, Eds., Dynamique à Long Terme des Écosystèmes Forestiers Intertropicaux, pp. 57-62. UNESCO Publishing, Paris. Daubechies I. 1991. Ten Lectures on Wavelets. CMBS-NSF Series in Applications Mathematics, vol. 61. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM), Philadelphia. Demaze, T.M., L. Polidori, and J.M. Fotsing. 2001. Caractérisation multi-echelle et multicapteur de la déforestation tropicale amazonienne. Bulletin de la Société Française de Photogrammétrie et de Télédétection 161: 74-84. DeFries, R., M. Hansen, and J. Townshend. 2000. Global continuous fields of vegetation characteristics: A linear mixture model applied to multiyear 8km AVHRR data. International Journal of Remote Sensing 21: 1389-1414. Durrieu de Madron L., V. Favrichon, B. Dupuy, A. Bar Hen, L. Houde, and H. F. Maître. 1998. Croissance et productivité en forêts dense humide: bilan des expérimentations dans le dispositif de Mopri. Côte d'Ivoire (1978-1992). Série FORAFRI. Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD), Montpellier, France. Faure, H. and L. Faure. 1990. Préface. In ORSTOM, Ed., Les Paysages Quaternaires de l’Afrique Centrale Atlantique, pp. 9-10. Collections Didactiques, Paris. Hansen, M., R. DeFries, J. Townshend, M. Carroll, C. Dimiceli, and R. Sohlberg. 2003. Global percent tree cover at a spatial resolution of 500 meters: first results of the MODIS vegetation continuous fields algorithm. Earth Interactions, in press. Hawthorne W.D. and Pareen M., 2000, How important are forest elephants to the survival of woody plant species in Upper Guinean forests? Journal of Tropical Ecology 16: 133-150. IUCN, 1992. Protected Areas of the World: a Review of National Systems. Vol. 3: Afrotropical. IUCN, Gland Switzland and Cambridge, UK. Joiris, D. and S. Bahuchet. 1993. Afrique équatorial. In S. Bahuchet, Ed., Situation des Populations Indigènes des Forêts Denses Humides, pp. 387-448. Rapport pour la C.C.E. (DG XI). Office des Publications Officielles des Communautés Européennes, Luxembourg. Kellman, M., R. Tackaberry, and J. Meave. 1996. The consequence of prolonged fragmentation: lessons from tropical gallery forests. In J. Schelhas and R. Greenberg, Eds., Forest Patches in Tropical Landscapes, pp. 37-58. Island Press, Washington, D.C. Laporte, N., S.J. Goetz, C.O. Justice, and M. Heinicke. 1998. A new land cover map of central Africa derived from multiresolution, multitemporal satellite observations. International Journal of Remote Sensing 19: 3537-3550. Laporte, N., M. Honzak, D. Devers, and A. Plumtre. 2002. Uganda land cover land use change over the past 20 years. Unpublished report for the NASA-INFORMS project. Available from: http://www.whrc.org/africa Laporte N.T. and T.S. Lin. 2003. Monitoring logging in the tropical forest of Republic of Congo with Landsat imagery. Proceeding of the 2003 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), July 21-25, 2003, Toulouse, France.

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LeToan, T., A. Beaudoin, J. Roim, and D. Guyon. 1992. Relating forest biomass to SAR data. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 30: 403-411. Lucas, R.M., M. Honzák, P.J. Curran, G.M. Foody, and D.T. Nguele. 2000. Characterizing tropical forest regeneration in Cameroon using NOAA AVHRR data. International Journal of Remote Sensing 21: 2831-2854. Mallat S. 1989. A theory for multiresolution signal decomposition: the wavelet representation. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence 11: 674-693. Mayaux, P. , E. Bartholomé , M. Massart, C. Van Cutsem, A. Cabral, A. Nonguierma, O. Diallo, C. Pretorius, M. Thompson, M. Cherlet, J-F. Pekel, P. Defourny, M. Vasconcelos, A. Di Gregorio, S. Fritz, G. De Grandi, C. Elvidge, P. Vogt, and A. Belward. 2003. A Land Cover Map of Africa. Project GLC2000. Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy. Available from: http://www.gvm.jrc.it/glc2000/Products/africa/GLC2000_africa2.pdf Moukassa A. 2001. Etude Démographique et Socio-économique dans la Zone Péripherique du Parc National de la Nouabalé Ndoki. Rapport au Wildlife Conservation Society. WCS-Kabo, Republic of Congo. Oates, J.F. 1996. African Primates: Status Survey and Conservation Action Plan. IUCN, Gland, Switzland. Pohl C. and J.L. Van Genderen. 1998. Multisensor image fusion in remote sensing: concepts, methods and applications. International Journal of Remote Sensing 19: 823-854. Plumptre, A.J., N. Laporte, and D. Devers. 2003. Threats to sites. In A.J. Plumptre, M. Behangana, T.R.B. Davenport, C. Kahindo, R. Kityo, E. Ndomba, D. Nkuutu, I. Owiunji, P. Ssegawa, and G. Eilu, Eds., The Biodiversity of the Albertine Rift, pp.77-82. Albertine Rift Technical Reports Series Vol. 3. Wildlife Conservation Society, New York. Ranson, K.J. and G. Sun. 1994. Mapping biomass of a northern forest using multifrequency SAR data. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 32: 388-396. Reitsma J.M. 1988. Végétation Forestière du Gabon. Tropenbos Technical Séries 1. Tropenbos Foundation, Ede, the Netherlands. Riitters, K., J. Wickham, R. O'Neill, B. Jones, and E. Smith. 2000. Global-scale patterns of forest fragmentation. Conservation Ecology 4: 3. Robinson, J.G., K.H. Redford, and E.L. Bennett. 1999. Conservation: wildlife harvest in logged tropical forests. Science 284: 595-596. Salas, W.A., M.J. Ducey, E. Rignot, and D. Skole. 2002. Assessment of JERS-1 SAR for monitoring secondary vegetation in Amazonia: II. Spatial, temporal, and radiometric considerations for operational monitoring. International Journal of Remote Sensing 23: 1381-1399. Thuret, M. 1997. Rapport de Mission Ouesso, Avril 1997. Avenir des Peuples des Forêts Tropicales (APFT), Bruxelles. Tiangco, P.N. and B.C. Forester. 2000. Development of trunk-canopy biomass and morphology indices from quadpolarized radar data. Proceeding of the 21st Asian Conference on Remote Sensing, December 4-8, 2000, Taipei, Taiwan. Available from: http://www.gisdevelopment.net/index.htm White, L.J.T. 1994a. Sacoglottis gabonensis fruiting and the seasonal movements of elephants in the Lopé Reserve, Gabon. Journal of Tropical Ecology 10: 121-125. White, L.J.T. 1994b. The effects of commercial mechanised logging on forest structure and composition on a transect in the Lopé Reserve, Gabon. Journal of Tropical Ecology 10: 309-318. Wrangham R.W., C.A. Chapman, and L.J. Chapman. 1994. Seed dispersal by forest chimpanzees in Uganda. Journal of Tropical Ecology 10: 255-368.

CHAPTER 7 LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA JAY H. SAMEK1, DO XUAN LAN2, CHAOWALIT SILAPATHONG3, CHARLIE NAVANAGRUHA4, SHARIFAH MASTURAH SYED ABDULLAH5, IWAN GUNAWAN6, BOBBY CRISOSTOMO7, FLAVIANA HILARIO8, HOANG MINH HIEN9, DAVID L. SKOLE1, WALTER CHOMENTOWSKI1, WILLIAM A. SALAS10, HARTANTO SANJAYA11 Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA 2 Forest Inventory and Planning Institute, Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Development, Hanoi, Vietnam 3 Geo-Informatics And Space Technology Development Agency, Bangkok, Thailand 4 Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand 5 Earth Observation Centre, Universiti Kebansaan Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia 6 Bureau of Programme Coordination and External Relations, ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta Indonesia 7 Database Management Division, National Mapping and Resource Information Authority, Manila, Philippines 8 Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Quezon City, Philippines 9 Disaster Management Center, Standing Office of the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control, Hanoi, Vietnam 10 Applied Geosolutions, LLC, Durham, NH, USA 11 BPPT (Agency for Assessment and Application of Technology), Jakarta, Indonesia
1

1 Introduction Southeast Asia is a culturally, environmentally, and geographically rich, diverse, and dynamic region. Comprised of eleven countries, it spans the Indochina and Malay peninsulas and the Malay Archipelago. Five nations, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam, are entirely on the mainland. The remaining six, Brunei, East Timor, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Singapore, are spread across thousands of islands. Coastal zones and river deltas, piedmont zones and mountain chains, with peaks reaching heights greater than 19,000 feet1, characterize the region. The land cover and land use change patterns evident in Southeast Asia are as diverse and dynamic as the political, economic, and demographic spheres in these eleven nations. Direct observations and measurements derived from satellite data, particularly the MSS, TM and ETM+ sensors aboard the suite Landsat spacecrafts dating back to the early 1970s, provide empirical data used to document the spatial extent of land cover and land use, and also their rates of change over time. The region has experienced loss of forest cover as a whole, particularly hardwood dipterocarp species and
1 Hkakabo in northern Myanmar is the highest peak in Southeast Asia at 19,296 feet above sea level.

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mangrove forests, due to a variety of proximate and distant drivers. Recent research, however, provides evidence of dynamic forest re-growth and clearing cycles in upland swidden systems (Skole et al., 2002; Wang 2003). Conservation and resource protection efficacy have also reversed the trend of forest clearing in some regions. In some cases, the total area in forest cover has changed little over time, but the forest cover itself has been converted to plantation forests, such as rubber and oil palm, in place of more diverse, species-rich natural forest. Furthermore, as in other regions of the tropics, forest degradation is rapidly becoming as much of a threat to forest cover as outright clearing and conversion (Achard et al., 1998; Matricardi et al., 2001; FAO 2001; UNEP 2002).

Figure 1. Indochina Forest Cover – 1999 (ETM+). Dark gray – forest, black – water. (See CD for color image.)

Accurate measurements of the forest cover and of forest cover changes in Southeast Asia are important for understanding global and regional climate change, the impacts on biodiversity, ecological health, and human welfare. An equally important dimension of land cover and land use in Southeast Asia is that of urban growth. With

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cities that are large in terms of population and area2 such as Manila, Bangkok, Jakarta, Hanoi, and Kuala Lumpur, Southeast Asia’s urban environment growth is of global importance socially and with respect to land use and the resultant urban impact on land cover.

2 Regional Forest Cover From a long-term perspective, 300 years, regional forest cover in Southeast Asia has experienced a steady decline (Grubler 1994; Fu et al., 1998). Decreases in forest cover since the 1700s coincide with the expansion of agriculture, the region’s integration into a global economy, and population growth. Rapid economic development in the region, and technological advances since the mid 1900s, have contributed significantly to the loss of forest cover. The development of transportation networks providing access to areas traditionally traversed on foot, the invention of high-tech machinery to log forests and extract minerals, the construction of hydropower facilities to support the energy demands of the growing urban populations and to support national efforts to compete in the global market economy, the development of large-scale cash-based agriculture in place of subsistent farming, industrial development, national policies favoring economic development over environmental conservation and weak political control have all contributed to the decline in forest cover in Southeast Asia. Long-term estimates of forest cover loss, agricultural expansion, and population growth for Asia as a whole show a loss of 108 x 106 hectares of forest, an increase of 128 x 106 hectares of cropland, and a population increase of 582 x 106 people from 1700 – 1920. Between 1920 and 1980 Asia experienced an additional loss of 142 x 106 hectares of forest, an additional increase of 185 x 106 hectares of cropland, and an additional population increase of 1562 x 106 people (revised from Fu et al., 1998). To conclude that population and agricultural expansion alone drive deforestation is too simplistic. However, these proximate causes certainly contribute heavily to the loss of forest cover. The global acquisition of remotely sensed satellite data, since the early 1970s, has contributed significantly to our basic understanding of the forest cover dynamics in this region. The NASA Landsat Pathfinder Humid Tropical Forest Project (HTFP) has measured the extent of forest cover in Indochina at four time periods using highresolution Landsat MSS (1973, 1985), TM (1992) and ETM+ (1999) data. The Pathfinder HTFP analyses are the only empirically derived, wall-to-wall measurements of Indochina at 30-meter (TM and ETM+) and 60-meter (MSS) spatial resolutions. The Pathfinder HTFP results for Southeast Asia show a decline in forest cover from 114.72 x 106 hectares in 1973 to 92.87 x 106 hectares in 1999, an overall loss of 21.85 x 106 hectares at an average annual rate of 0.84 x 106 hectares over the twenty six year time frame (revised from Skole et al., 1998 and MSU unpublished results 2003). Figure 2 shows, however, that the annual rate of deforestation in Indochina peaked in the 1980s and has declined since. The annual forest cover loss between 1973 and 1985 was 1.31 x 106 hectares, whereas between 1985-1992 and 1992-1999 the rates were 0.50 and 0.37 x 106 hectares respectively. In relative terms to the total land area of Indochina
2

Population Statistics: Manila, Philippines – 3,754,913; Bangkok, Thailand – 6,320,174; Jakarta, Indonesia – 8,222,515; Hanoi, Vietnam – 1,089,760; Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia – 1,297,526.

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(190.036 x 106 ha), forest cover has declined from 60.36 % of the total land area in 1973 to 52.08 % in 1985, 50.24 % in 1992 and 48.87 % in 1999. By comparison, the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations’ Forest Resource Assessment 2000 reports Indochina forest cover at 42.57 % of the total land area. The FAO-FRA 2000 calculation is based on country reported statistics that range in years from 1989 in the case of Laos to 1998 for Thailand.
1.40 1.31

1.20

1.00

'000,000 ha

0.80

0.60 0.50

0.40

0.37

0.20

0.00 Rate 73-85 Rate 85-92 Period of Analysis Rate 92-99

Figure 2. Indochina Annual Rate of Forest Cover Decline

3 Dynamics of Forest Cover Change While synoptic analyses, such as the Pathfinder HTFP and FAO FRA studies, show continuous decline in regional forest cover for Indochina and Southeast Asia as a whole, studies at the local scale reveal a more dynamic sequence of land cover and land use change and a non-linear pattern to forest re-growth and clearing. Inter-annual analysis of Landsat data for the Mae Chaem watershed in Chiang Mai, Thailand indicates swidden farming systems in the uplands of northwest Thailand allow for secondary forest regrowth (Silapathong et al., 2002; Wang 2003). Tamdoa National Park in northern Vietnam has seen an increase of forest cover since the park’s establishment (Lan et al., 2002). Forest re-growth has also been documented in the northern part of Stoeung Trang district of Kampong Cham province, Cambodia and is believed to be linked to the decline of the Khmer Rouge regime (Vina et al., 2002). The upland swidden/fallow areas of Southeast Asia, when analyzed at fine temporal scales, indicate a dynamic system of land cover and land use change that is not captured through decadal analyses. Such changes have been documented in northern Thailand (Skole, et al., 1998; Silapathong et al., 2002). The Mae Chaem district, in Chiang Mai, Thailand is characterized by evergreen hill forest, mixed

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deciduous forest, dry dipterocarp forest, forest plantation, shifting cultivation, paddy field, field crop, mixed orchards, open land and settlement areas. Mae Chaem is a mountainous area with an elevation range of 300 - 1,800 meters. The analysis of annual Landsat data for a ten-year period (1990 – 1999) for Mae Chaem shows the inter-annual variation of forest clearing and re-growth. While there is an overall decline in forest cover from 1990 to 1999, in two of the ten-year annual increments, 1991-1992 and 1993-1994 the total area of forest increased. Table 1 shows the comparison of land cover and land use changes in Mae Chaem at the annual increment of analysis. Even more significant are the results of the change detection analysis. As indicated in Table 2, and consistent with the synoptic, regional analysis, there is conversion of forest cover to agriculture in nearly all years. However, there are also areas that are converting back to forest from agriculture. These changes support the hypothesis that deforestation in upland swidden regions of Southeast Asia is not a linear cycle of forest clearing and permanent conversion to non-forest land cover but rather, cycles of clearing and abandonment that allow for periods of forest re-growth. The study by Skole et al. (1998) based on a Landsat dataset over a five-year period from 1989 – 1994 also supports these conclusions.
Table 1: Annual Increment of Square Kilometers (km2). Class 90-91 91-92 -2.917 0.936 Forest 3.106 -1.167 Agriculture -0.212 0.172 Open land 0.033 0.049 Urban -0.010 0.010 Water Land Cover and Land Use Change, Mae Chaem, Thailand in 92-93 -7.826 11.366 -3.826 0.085 0.001 93-94 2.289 -6.782 4.424 0.078 -0.009 94-95 -0.602 4.871 -4.269 0 0 95-96 -2.603 3.674 -1.107 0.007 0.029 96-97 -1.318 2.699 -1.517 0.102 0.034 97-98 -1.473 2.322 -0.937 0.069 0.019 98-99 -0.737 0.491 0.324 0.029 -0.107

In addition to upland dynamics of forest clearing and abandonment to secondary growth, there is also evidence from satellite analyses showing forest regrowth in protected areas. Efficacy of protected areas is not uniform across the region or, in some cases, even within any particular nation’s borders. However, the case of forest cover change in Tamdao National Park is exemplary of how the enforcement of natural resource protection policies can foster the expansion of forest cover in a particular area. Tamdao National Park is an elongated area, oriented in a northeast/southwest direction, which spans three provinces: Vinh Phuc, Thai Nguyen and Tuyen Quang. It comprises a mountain range more than 80 kilometers long, the center of which is located about 80 kilometers northwest of Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam. Tamdao is a tail of arch shaped mountain ranges located in the upper Chay River area. The tails of these ranges converge in Tamdao, and their heads spread out as a fan to the north. The Tamdao range consists of two dozen peaks linked with each other to form sharp edges. The peaks have an elevation around 1000m. The highest peak is Tamdao North (1592m) and is located in the center of the range at a cross point of the three provincial borders. The width of the Tamdao range varies from between 10 and 15 kilometers and is characterized by very steep sloping sides (averaging 26 – 35 degrees). Forests in Tamdao can be classified under tropical forest with a predominance of Dipterocarpaceae and Lauraceae species. In Tamdoa National Park there are six forest

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types classified by the Vietnamese Forestry and Inventory Planning Institute (FIPI): evergreen tropical rain forest, evergreen sub-tropical rain forest, scrub forest at the top of mountains, secondary forest after over-logging, regenerating forest, and forest plantation.
Table 2: Percent of Annual Increment of Land Cover and Land Use Change, Mae Chaem, Thailand (km2) Class 90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 94.33 94.28 93.21 93.30 93.52 93.18 93.01 92.7 Unchanged Forest 0 Forest to 0.37 0.96 0.12 0.18 0.43 0.19 0.34 Agriculture 0 0.05 0.25 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 Forest to Open land Unchanged Agricul. 3.72 3.98 3.74 4.55 4.55 5.25 5.68 6.06 Agriculture to 0 0.16 0.19 0.41 0.12 0.04 0.05 0.11 Forest Agriculture to Open 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.61 0.01 0.04 0.09 0 land Unchanged Open 1.27 1.26 0.45 0.76 0.80 0.65 0.39 0.35 land Open land to Forest 0 0 0.05 0.03 0 0.05 0.04 0.13 Open land to Agricul. 0.12 0.06 0.86 0.01 0.59 0.15 0.31 0.05

98-99 92.71 0.19 0.04 6.23 0.10 0.11 0.23 0.04 0.13

Lan et al. (2002) analyzed three Landsat scenes in a study of land cover and land use change for Tamdao National Park. The study classified data from 1975 (MSS), 1992 (TM), and 1999 (ETM+). The results of the analysis are shown in table 3. Between 1975 and 1992, the area of old growth forest and secondary forests declined 19.7 and 4.3 percent respectively. However, between 1992 and 1999, the area of secondary forest cover expanded by 98.5 percent, or 6,665.4 hectares, nearly doubling the area observed in 1972. Unfortunately, the area of old growth forest declined 22.9 percent for this same time period, a change of 4,515.6 hectares. However, 4,895.7 hectares, the vast majority of transitioned old growth forest in 1992 converted to secondary growth in 1999, rather than to other land cover or land use types (Table 4). Episodic political events, particularly in Southeast Asia, a region characterized by a varied and diverse social, economic and political past history and present make-up, can also contribute to the patterns of land cover and land use measured using satellite data. Political economy and political ecology studies are emphasizing the importance of social and economic factors that influence land cover and land use patterns beyond population growth and agricultural expansion (Blaikie and Brookfleid, 1987; Hecht and Cockburn, 1990; Arizpe et al., 1995). Vina et al. (2002) document the relationship between the collapse of the Khmer Rouge regime and forest cover expansion in a part of Kampong Cham Province, using a two-date study of land cover and land use change with Landsat data from 1984 (MSS) and from 1991 (TM) and geographic information system modeling (GIS).

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Table 3: Multi-date analysis of land cover in hectares for Tamdoa National Park

Land use/land cover Old forest Secondary forest Open/bare land Agriculture Total

1975 24,601.0 7,073.1 9,827.2 1,624.1 43,125.4

1992 19,746.7 6,769.9 13,554.9 3,053.9 43,125.4

1999 15,231.1 13,435.3 12,826.5 1,632.5 43,125.4

Table 4: Confusion matrix from 1992-1999 analysis of land cover in hectares for Tamdao National Park 99 Land uses 92 Old Forest Second. For. Open Land Ag. Land Total OF SF OP AG Total 14,191.3 434.1 597.0 8.7 15,231.1 4,895.7 3,359.6 4,988.6 191.4 13,435.3 657.2 2,907.9 7,167.4 2,093.9 12,826.5 2.5 68.3 801.9 759.9 1,632.5 19,746.7 6,769.9 13,554.9 3,053.9 43,125.4

Kampong Cham province is located about 120 kilometers northeast of Phnom Penh, the capital of Cambodia. Under the Khmer Rouge regime, people relocated to the northern part of Stoeung Trang district, Kampong Cham province were directed to clear the forest in order to establish a new settlement, the Toul Sambour Commune. Analysis of the 1984 Landsat MSS and the 1991 Landsat TM data shows substantial re-growth of forest cover at this site. With the fall of the Khmer Rouge regime in 1985, many of the people who were forced to reside in parts of the country against their will, returned to their native villages, towns and cities. This was true as well for people forced to live in Stoeung Trang district. By 1991, the abandoned area around Toul Sambour Commune had returned to forest cover.

4 The Emerging Urban Equation The emphases on Southeast Asia’s forest cover in the science and development arenas have been driven in large part by climate change, sustainability and biodiversity questions (Cruz et al., 1998; Galloway and Mellillo, 1998; IGBP 1998; Ganeshaiah et al., 2001; Macnab and Moses, 2001; Sanchez-Azofeifa 2003). An emerging global change issue on par with forest cover is that of urban and peri-urban expansion (World Bank 1997; Kressler and Steinnocher, 1998; Glaeser and Kahn, 2003). The human dimensions effecting land cover and land use of forested areas in Southeast Asia are

and the expansion of existing satellite urban areas. the urban land cover in the KlangLangat watershed encompassed 966. oil palm (2%). nearly double that from 1989.6 and 43% respectively. the establishment of new towns (Nilai.5 km2 in 1999.5 km2. the other major land cover in the area is agricultural. horticulture (22%). Mangrove forests areas also declined in this period from 394. related directly or indirectly to such phenomena as rural-to-urban migration. Pangsun Dam and Semenyih Dam. 2002). Bangi. All other classes declined by the following amounts: mining (43%). The Klang-Langat watershed is also vital in terms of the domestic water supply that it provides to the most densely populated area in Malaysia. the only growth was in urban areas and water bodies (as a result of dam constructions). of which the main crops are oil palm. and economically important. Negeri Sembilan and the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur. rubber (36%). is exemplary of the urban impacts on land cover and land use (Mastura et al. The Klang-Langat watershed is located in the mid-western part of Peninsular Malaysia and covers eight administrative districts of Selangor. Kuala Lumpur. The new urban growth areas included the development of a new International Airport (Kuala Lumpur International Airport).9 km2 in 1989 to 758. Besides the built-up areas and forests. Malaysia. Putrajaya. economic development and the integration of developing countries into a global market economy sustaining industrialization and the exploitation of natural resources. The .118 SAMEK ET AL. agricultural and mining areas declined 18. bare land (8%) and grassland (21%). 64% of the change in Dipterocarp forest converted to either urban (30%) or rubber plantations (34%) The period saw a similar fate for mangroves: 55% of all the mangrove forests that were converted changed to urban (21%) and oil palm plantation (34%).. urban land use occupied 373. The conversion to plantation agriculture in close proximity to a large. Not all of the Dipterocarp forest or mangrove forest loss can be attributed to conversion to urban land use. lowland forest and mangrove forests. and the development of infrastructure tying remote areas ever closer to urban cores and markets. Tun Hussin Onn). The watershed has several patches of upland forest. Dipterocarp forest located along the upper catchment of the Klang-Langat watershed declined 10% over this time period.4 km2 between 1989-1999. In 1989. coconut (9%). which encompasses Kuala Lumpur. dipterocarp forest (10%).5 million people. from 846. There are currently four dams in this watershed: Batu Dam. We see similar land cover and land use changes in areas that are within proximity of other large metropolitan areas. Klang Gate. 18. By 1999. the capital city of about 1.1. a 35% loss.6 to 258. is located at the confluence of Klang and Gombak rivers. the urban area grew by 159% while forest cover. A case study of the Klang-Langat watershed. market serving a global economy is not surprising and serves as an example of the types of changes the urban sphere is exacting on land cover. The Klang-Langat watershed represents the most highly urbanised region in Malaysia. mangrove (35%). A study of nine Landsat TM scenes of the Klang-Langat watershed measured the land cover and land use changes between 1989 and 1999 (annual data except for 1992 and 1997). Of the ten land cover and land use classes measured over the ten-year period from 1989 to 1999. However. In this ten-year period. cocoa and coconut. coffee. natural rubber.8 km2 but by 1996 the total coverage had expanded to 654. The Klang-Langat watershed is an example of the spatial and temporal dynamics of a large and growing metropolitan area.9 km2.

The climate extremes of heavy rains and El Niño/La Niña drought. and hydroelectric power. primary settlement and industry at an annual rate of nearly 30. carbon flux and climate impacts. The impacts of these multi-purpose dams on land cover and land use. It lies about 75 kilometers southeast of Jakarta.5 x 106 hectares. The Magat watershed in Nueva Vizcaya is a forest reservation area under Philippine Proclamation 573 dated June 26. Certainly. The irrigation function of the dams also provided a steady flow of water that allowed for greater intensification of agricultural land uses. The greatest change was observed between 1990 and 1991 with more than 50. The flood control function of the dams resulted in downstream areas becoming more suitable for settlements as the risk of yearly flooding diminished. 1969. together with the market effects of Jakarta’s proximity. but proximate and connected through transportation networks to Jakarta. have been significant. 2002). type I and type II. and the KlangLangat watershed in Malaysia. Within the watershed. and this continues to be an important area of discovery and analysis.000 hectares per year. It is considered as a critical watershed and supports the Magat multi-purpose dam which is vital for irrigation.. At national. there are two pronounced seasons: dry from November to April and wet during . and reinforced by infrastructural development (dam construction). deforestation. 5 Climate Impacts of Land Cover and Land Use Change in Southeast Asia Much research has been aimed at increasing understanding of the human dimensions of land cover and land use change. however. a growing effort to also understand the biophysical influences of land cover and land use change patterns over time. or urban heat island effects on local climate conditions). regional and global levels. three large-scale multipurpose dams have been constructed. The prevailing climate of the Magat watershed falls under two categories based on the Modified Coronas. The facilities also provided hydro-electricity supporting the development of industry. topics of grave importance in Southeast Asia’s monsoon climate. are important influences on the land cover and land use change in the region. In this case. A case study of the Magat watershed on Luzon Island in the Philippines documents the climatic impacts of land cover at the local scale (Crisostomo et al. the magnitude of which has increased with the development of a transportation network linking the mountainous region of the watershed to Jakarta. While the initial efforts of the dam construction dovetailed with the expansionist agricultural policy of the early 1970s. flood control. from human impacts on the landscape (e.LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA 119 upper Citarum watershed in West Java is a mountainous area covering approximately 2.000 hectares of agricultural land being converted to urban land uses (Gunawan et al. the area witnessed land cover and land use changes in the late 1980s and 1990s tending toward urbanization as a result of the influence of Jakarta’s economic pull. the sphere of urban influence on land cover and land use in the Citarum watershed is not local and spatially contiguous to the urban core as in the case of Kuala Lumpur. There is. 2002). together with periodic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. market influences and national policies supporting industrialization and economic development. In Type I climate.. some climatic factors are themselves driven by anthropogenic forces. there are efforts to understand and minimize the impacts of extreme climatic events. Analysis of eight Landsat TM scenes from 1989 to 1998 show a conversion of agricultural lands to urban.g.

441 1.117 536 835 1. The El Niño event of 1997 severely affected the agricultural activities in the Magat watershed. while grasslands increased by 30.777 4.083 1.133 18.400 millimeters in high altitude locales.118 44.400 millimeters of rainfall in low altitude areas and about 2.354 2.899 23.766 5. Philippines Area in Hectares Covered by Each Land Cover Type Per Year Land Cover Type 1988 1990 1992 1993 1994 1996 1997 1998 Forest Secondary Forest/Tree Plantation Agriculture Bareland Built-up Grassland River TOTAL 52. analyses of satellite data at the regional scale indicate a continued decline of forest cover and the expansion of agriculture and urban land uses.810 41.343 hectares during this same period.792 778 231.131 231.012 129. for the region as .124 231.391 730 336 118.554 1. and the Cordelleria mountains to the west and southwest.080 105. geographical.295 14.143 45.120 SAMEK ET AL. In the Type II climate.451 1. and 1995) documents the climate effects of the La Niña phenomenon on land cover and land use in the watershed.761 1. Table 5: Land Cover and Land Use from 1988 .441 3.969 28. Mount Pulag with an elevation of 2. However.115 231.289 5. Analysis of the 1997 Landsat TM data.444 96. acquired in October (the rainy season).052 53. The rains brought about by these two air masses contribute about seventy-five percent (75%) of the annual rainfall in the area. 1991. and sociocultural characteristics should make one pause before predicting its future land cover. The southwest monsoon and the South Pacific trade winds serve as the most influential climatic controls. 6 The Outlook for Land Cover and Land Use Change in Southeast Asia Southeast Asia’s complex and dynamic historical.113 45. seasons are not very pronounced.563 23. the rest of the year. That said.216 583 148. the watershed receives about 1.377 13.121 51. and a significant increase in open and grass land areas (see Table 5).024 118.166 33.123 231.252 30. Luzon.125 Analysis of eight Landsat TM scenes from 1988 to 1998 (annual data except for 1989.718 42. However. The Magat River crosses the Magat watershed from south to north.578 5. biophysical. relatively dry from November to April and wet during the rest of the year. show the least area in non-tree agricultural use (within the 1988-1998 period of analysis). the Sierra Madre range to the south and southeast.094 15.594 798 895 231.037 58.081 8. Annually.574 hecatres.380 57. the trend in forest cover change from forest to other land cover and land use types.004 3.813 126. Agricultural areas declined from 1996 to 1997 by 20.208 231.358 49. above mean sea level is the highest peak in the watershed.120 41.086 981 126.1998 in the Magat Watershed.994 11.562 13.797 2. The watershed is at the confluence of three mountain ranges: the Palali range located to the east.168 292 231. there is an on-going variation in climate due to the El Niño and La Niña phenomena.922 m.

O. In such areas. Matricardi et al.C.. the acquisition and creation of new geographic data sets. Key questions remain for understanding the progression of land cover and land use change in Southeast Asia. and the institutional emphasis on geographic information systems for sustainable development (GIS-D). Palawan. and Valesquez M. Furthermore.C. Gayban E. Arquero A. and Palagans M. we can expect to see an exponential growth in regional contributions to our understanding of land cover and land use change. Direct observation and new methods of satellite data classification (Qi et al. 1995.LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA 121 a whole.. Eva H. land cover change is not solely about the wholesale conversion of one type or class to another. Stibig H-J. (ed. and the eventual human and ecological impacts of these changes. 2001) are highlighting the degradation effects of selected logging on forests.. Arizpe L.. Unfortunately.. not only in Southeast Asia. European Commission.. Identification Of Deforestation Hot Spot Areas In The Humid Tropics. at smaller scales is somewhat encouraging. and Brookfield H.). but the quality and structure of the forest cover may be radically altered. London: Methuen. Integrated Environmental Management for Sustainable Development . TREES Publications Series B. and forest cover specifically.. 7 References Achard F. 1998. how the various proximate and distant forces of land cover and land use change operate at multiple-scales.. There has been a growing momentum in nearly all Southeast Asian countries to curb the total exploitation of forests and to establish protected areas and national parks in order to preserve forested areas. Bernardo J.. forests may remain intact as a cover type. Land degradation and society. Cruzado E. Balais B. Canonoy F. Bato V. 2002... Luxembourg. but globally.. In: Proceedings of the Consultation Meeting for the International Conference on Tropical Forests and Climate Change: Status. countries are looking to the Kyoto Protocol to provide further incentives to reduce the rate of forest cover decline and support afforestation and reforestation activities. With the trends in developing national spatial data infrastructures (NSDI) that support spatial decision support systems (SDSS). Research Report No. Michigan. Culture and Global Change: Social Perceptions of Deforestation in the Lacandona Rain Forest. Paz F.... Lingad S. 1998. and Richards T. Crisostomo B. NASA LCLUC project report. The outlook for land cover change in general. The University of Michigan Press: Ann Arbor. Mayaux P.4.. Sponsored by University of the Philippines Los Baños. Cruz R. Blaikie P.M. Our scientific understanding of upland agriculture systems and the cycles of forest conversion and abandonment are giving us new insights as to the role of land cover and land use in understanding carbon sources and sinks that impact climate change. 1987. (eds). Advances in GIS and remote sensing analysis as well as the development of spatially-explicit diagnostic and prognostic models will add significantly to our understanding of land cover and land use change in Southeast Asia over the next decade. appears to be leveling off..Department of Environment and .V. Glinni A.D. Issues and Challenges. Land Use and Land Cover Change for South East Asia: Two Case Studies in the Philippines – Magat Watershed and Puerto Pricesa.. Castro S.. Hilario F. Magadia J. 2000. Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Forest Ecosystems.

Preliminary assessment of ipacts of global change on Asia... http://foliage. IGBP Publication Series 3.. Lan D. pp. 2003.. 1997.S.. Melillo (eds. IGBP Publication Series 3. Dissertation. Menrith E.. Breuste. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000. Wang C. Gunawan I. Ganeshaiah K. Rome. Matricardi E. Silapathong C. 1998. 2001. Philippines. In: J. 2002. Bawa. and Silapathong C.B..G. Gandharum L.H. Grubler A. 2002. Vina T. .L. Makati. Skole D. Fu C. and Zhao Z. Forestry Paper No 140. World Bank. R. Feldmann.L. Goodrich D. Rakariyatham P-I. IGBP Terrestrial Carbon Working Group. 2001. Butthep C. FAO..N. Qi J.M. and Dedieu G. Land Use and Land Cover Change for South East Asia: Vietnamese Case Study in Tamdao National Park.. Uhlmann (eds. Human Driving Force: Technology.T. 2002. Ahmad A. National Bureau of Economic Research. and Buch C.N. and Chinesawasdi W. Uma Shaanker.122 SAMEK ET AL.. Protected Areas' Functions and Dynamics of Land Cover Change: Examining the Integrity and Isolation of Costa Rica's National Parks.): Urban ecology. Utilization Of Vegetation To Extract Effective Surface Parameters. Sustainable Forest Management Network. New Delhi. Harper-Perennial: New York. Ongsomweng S. Karim O. Multi-Temporal Detection and Measurement of Selective Logging in the Brazilian Amazon Using Remote Sensing. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.) Asian Change in the Context of Global Climate Change. Integration of Remote Sensing Data and GIS to Facilitate Change Detection in Urban Areas.A. The terrestrial carbon cycle: Implications for the Kyoto Protocol.N. Meyer and B. Moran M. The Fate of the Forest: Developers.. Navanugraha C. Mastura S.. Skole D. Kressler F. 2003.. 2002. and Cockburn A. Kim J-W.. CGCEO/RA03-01/w. Natural Resources. 2002. Biological Conservation 109: 123-135. NASA LCLUC project report. Canada. Diversity and Human Welfare.). A report to the VEGETATION programme. Salas W.. The CIA World Factbook. The Dynamics of Urban Growth in Three Chinese Cities. Saifuk K. NASA LCLUC project report. IGBP Publication Series 3. Chomentowski W..) Asian Change in the Context of Global Climate Change.A.) Asian Change in the Context of Global Climate Change. 2003. Springer Verlag Berlin ..L. Global Environmental Outlook 3.. United Nations Development Programme. (eds. Macnab B..odci. NBER Working Paper No. Interannual variation in the terrestrial carbon cycle: significance of Asian tropical forest conversion to imbalances in the global carbon budget. 1998. Oxford and IBH... and Cochrane M. In: J. and Kirirath K.A. Nor N. NASA LCLUC project report. Pfaff. http://www. Kerr Y. 1998. Melillo (eds.. Weltz M. 1997. 287-328. 1994. Department of Geography.C.. Galloway and J.. Sanjaya H. Galloway and J... and K. and Steinnocher K. 2002. In: J.msu. and Moses R. Tropical Ecosystems: Structure. and Matthew E..geo. United States Central Intelligence Agency. C. Edmonton Alberta. Vicheth P. Noma P. 2001. Chucip K.. Land Use and Land Cover Change for South East Asia: Three Indonesian Case Studies.. November 25.Heildelberg. Rahmadi A. Muchlis M. H. Karsidi A. 2001.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index. Science 280:1393-1394. Galloway J. India Glaeser E. 1990. Unpublished PhD. Pp. Oxford: Oxford University Press.X.. Destroyers and Defenders of the Amazon.... UNEP. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. w9733 May 2003. Land Use and Land Cover Change for South East Asia: Five Thailand Case Studies. Daily.A. and Handoko. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Jaafar M. 2002. Michigan State University. Nordin L..N. and Thu N. Land Use and Land Cover Change for South East Asia: Two Malaysian Case Studies.. and Choy L. Hecht S. Ltd. 2000..pdf Sanchez-Azofeifa G. Michigan State University. East Lansing.P.S. G. Hien H. 456-460. In: W.M. Chehbouni A. Turner (eds. 1998. and Melillo J.M. Michigan. O.K. Biodiversity/Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) Workshop Proceedings: Sept 28-29. NASA LCLUC project report.edu/research/projects/~vgt_vgt/3rdreport. A Global Perspective Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. A.. Land Use and Land Cover Change for South East Asia: Cambodian Case Study in Kampong Cham Province. London: Earthscan Publications. (eds. Mao S. 2001.C. NASA LCLUC project report.html. Disthanchong D..M.L.) Change in Land Use and Land Cover.

VYACHESLAV KHARUK4.202 Richardson Hall Corvallis. JEFFREY G. Milledgeville. urban. 660036 Russia 5 Department of Geography. PNW Research Station. BERGEN6. ERIC KASISCHKE5. . 430 E. MD 20742 USA 6 School of Natural Resources and Environment. Gutman et al. Code 923. 3200 SW Jefferson Way. MI 48109-1115 USA 7 NASA GSFC. although the extent and patterns of these disturbances may partly reflect human influences. 123–138. © 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. DOUG R. University of Virginia. Species mix. patterns of succession. COHEN8. Fire and insect damage represent two major natural disturbance factors. MAUREEN V. The impact of projected climate change and potential feedbacks from boreal forest ecosystems are expected to be strong making it very important to understand the current patterns of forest cover. OETTER9. Academgorodok. NASA GSFC. its attributes. In the heavily populated west (St.). Georgia College & State University. Oregon State University. University. GUOQING SUN2. Krasnoyarsk. Land Change Science.V. drainage of peat lands.CHAPTER 8 NORTHERN EURASIA Remote Sensing of Boreal Forest in Selected Regions OLGA N. DUANE1 Department of Forest Science. KATHLEEN M. (eds. agricultural and infrastructure development. Human impact on boreal forests is expanding throughout Northern Eurasia and includes timber harvest. WARREN B. HERMAN H. forestation and conservation measures. OR 97331-5752 USA 2 University of Maryland. MD 20771 USA 3 Department of Environmental Sciences. GA 31061-0490 USA 1 1 Introduction Boreal forest is the major type of land cover in Northern Eurasia. MASEK7. Greenbelt. and the role of specific disturbance factors vary from region to region. Corvallis. Case studies within the boreal forest of Eurasia focus on regions that vary greatly in the extent of human impact on forest ecosystems. and change over time. SHUGART3. MD 20771 USA 8 USDA Forest Service. OR 97331 USA 9 Department of History and Geography. The University of Michigan. Ann Arbor. Petersburg region) few primary forests remain and repeated logging is the major disturbance factor while urban expansion and agricultural change (including abandonment of agricultural lands) also plays a role. Sukachev Institute of Forest. In 123 G. industrial pollution. Virginia 22904 USA 4 Forest Biophysics Lab. University of Maryland. 2181 LeFrak Hall College Park. KRANKINA1.Box 400123 Charlottesville. Biospheric Sciences Branch Greenbelt. fire control. It forms one of the world’s largest forest tracts and amounts to some 25% of the world’s forest cover. N. Boreal forest ecosystems developed under the influence of an active natural disturbance regime that created a complex and dynamic pattern of land cover. Printed in the Netherlands.

Petersburg Russia (B).124 KRANKINA ET AL. Central Siberia (C). Finally. Insets legend: dark gray – conifer forest. Credits: source data from ESRI Data World CD.2. . timber harvest is expanding into previously unexploited forests while fire and insects continue to play a major role as some abandonment of agricultural lands adds to forest cover. Figure 1. light gray – steppe and agriculture. maps by Lara Peterson. in Northeast China fire control is taking effect while intensive use of forests is maintained and localized land clearing for agriculture continues. medium gray – mixed conifer deciduous forest. 2002. Northeast China (D). version 8. Northern Eurasia (A) and location of three study areas: St. Central Siberia. Remote sensing was used in all three study regions as a basis for the analysis of forest cover and disturbance patterns. University of Michigan Environmental Spatial Analysis Laboratory.

these species are often replaced by northern hardwoods including birch (Betula pendula Roth. about 1500 forested polygons were selected for analysis. Lysino. A wealth of ground reference data was available from the Northwest State Forest Inventory Enterprise (Kukuev et al. mean monthly temperatures are negative November through March. During the region-wide inventory of 1992-93 crews from the local inventory enterprise surveyed each forest stand polygon (a homogenous patch of forest vegetation) delineated from aerial photographs.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L. and the mean temperature of January is -7° to -11° C. a city of over 5 million people (Krankina et al. and Volkhov) that were selected to represent the variation in forest cover within the region (Figure 2).1. The region occupies 8. and characteristics of non-forest lands (bogs. The region is a part of the East-European Plain with elevations between 0 and 250 m a.) and aspen (Populus tremula L.1 Study region The St. and contains numerous glacial features. Forest stand data for this study came from one ranger district in each of three state forests (Roschino.).791 polygons in all three forests. 1995. After disturbance. small (<2 ha). Biomass for each forest polygon was calculated from forest inventory data (dominant species.) both growing in pure and mixed stands. The natural vegetation belongs to southern taiga type. Numerous sites in the northwestern part of the region have very thin sandy soils and exposed granite bedrock. 1998).) Karst. The mean temperature of July ranges from +16° to +17° C. age. and wood volume) and available allometric equations (Alexeyev and Birdsey. About 75% of the forest lands in this region are under state management and are inventoried every 10 years. major conifer species include Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. s. 2001) and then was adapted for the conditions of the St. 1997). The method for mapping forest attributes using integration of ground reference data sets and Landsat satellite imagery was first developed for the Pacific Northwest (Cohen et al. clearcuts. non forest.2 Mapping of Land Cover The mapping of land cover focused on forests and selected attributes of forest cover important for modeling carbon dynamics: species composition. The climate is cool maritime with cool wet summers and long cold winters.1 million ha of land surface and currently 53% of this area is covered with forests. 2..1. A large agricultural region stretches south and west from St. and meadows). From the total of 12. Soils are mostly of the podzol type on deep loamy to sandy sediments.REMOTE SENSING OF BOREAL FORESTS 2 Case Studies 2. submitted). 1998). forest age. biomass. The range of ages and biomass densities represented in field data was quite narrow: less than 1 % of polygons had ages >160 years and 3% had biomass >250 Mg ha –1. PETERSBURG REGION 125 2. Petersburg region is located in the forest zone of NW Russia between 58° and 61° N and between 29° and 34° E. Polygons were referenced to Landsat imagery and field data for each included tree species composition. The region was completely glaciated during the Ice Age.. and heterogeneous polygons were eliminated. The terrain is mostly flat and rests on ancient sea sediments covered by a layer of moraine deposits.. Petersburg region (Oetter et al.. and annual precipitation is 600-800 mm. This is because most of the . whereas the southern and eastern parts have deep silty soils and numerous expansive peat bogs. wood volume.1 ST. Petersburg. l. and age.

126 KRANKINA ET AL. (5) mixed hardwood-conifer – all remaining polygons. The spectral reflectance data for forest pixels were used for continuous modeling of three forest cover attributes—species composition. Landsat image mosaic and ground data locations in the St. (4) mixed conifers with the sum of spruce and pine cover 70% but neither species alone 70%. submitted). (3) spruce with spruce cover 70%. Figure 2. The mean spectral signatures for polygons from these classes were extracted from a 6-band TM layer. and a supervised classification was performed on radiometrically normalized TM mosaic of the entire region to separate the forested area into these five forest classes (Oetter et al. to construct a map with eight land cover classes (Agriculture.September). Bog. Geometric rectification was performed by first selecting a map-registered base image (path 182. The selection of Landsat imagery was limited initially to 1992–95 to match the time of the ground data collection. Petersburg region. forest stand age (years). row 18 for 19 May 1992) that provided the geographic reference to which other images were geometrically corrected. Petersburg region boundary and subjected to multiple iterations of unsupervised classification. Overall. 12 separate Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images and one Multispectral Scanner (MSS) image were acquired (Figure 2). (2) pine with pine cover 70%. depending upon the relative dominance of forest tree species: (1) hardwood with hardwood cover 70%. The training and the test set each included 735 forest polygons separated into five forest cover types. . so these images had to be supplemented with scenes from 1986 and 1987. forests in the region were repeatedly logged for timber on a rotation of about 100 years.. Each of the 14 Landsat images was clipped to the St. It proved impossible to find enough cloud-free imagery within the specified time frame to cover the entire region. The high latitude of the region further limited the selection to the summer months (mid-May to mid. and live forest biomass (Mg ha-1).

Filimonov et al.9 16 Pine1 -0. the canonical correlation coefficients for these two attributes were generally different. Table 1.34 0.74 -0. 1986).80 0. Cloud. respectively.g. . and Water).69 million ha.40 0. The difference is attributable to exclusion of several types of tree-covered lands from forest inventory (e. Shadow. The squared value of the TM band reflectance produced the best results. a political map (Kupidonova 1994) helped to identify agricultural areas.10 0.53 38..83 -0. It was statistically significant (at = 0.73 million ha) is in good agreement with the total bog area reported by forest inventory (0. Within each forest cover type. The total area of mapped bogs (0.43 0.. Forest. The correlation of resulting multispectral indices with forest age and biomass was examined on the test set of polygons.05) in all cases with higher correlation coefficients for biomass (Table 1) than for age (R=0.57 million ha) is higher than forest area reported by forest inventory system (4.0 51 Spruce1 0. unpublished) helped identify bogs.65 51. small woodlots around summer homes). so that predictive bias is reduced (Cohen et al.58 41.61 47.39 1. 2003). Other studies of forest attribute prediction with Landsat TM data found similar accuracy (Hyyppaa et al. parks. The regional total of forest biomass modeled as described above agrees well with the estimate based on forest inventory data (542 Tg and 538 Tg. The TM data values were transformed to meet the CCA assumption of a linear relationship between the vegetation attribute and each explanatory variable. 1995).39 0. Forest type Coefficients2 R3 RMSE Number Mg ha-1 of test TM2 TM3 TM4 TM7 polygons Hardwood -0.80 -0. The total area of forest derived from our land cover map (5. Multispectral indices for predictive modeling of live forest biomass (Standardized TM Band Loadings) and model test results.19 0.09 -0.46 0. Bogs that had visual indications of human manipulation (draining and mining) were manually recoded to a separate class.. 2000). Shrub/grass. predictive models relating spectral values to forest age and live biomass were generated using a ‘reduced major axis’ (RMA) regression approach (Curran and Hay. expert judgment of the raw imagery was used for visual reference. RMA requires a single independent variable.9 50 1 For Lysino and Volkhov sites only 2 Cannonical correlation coefficients for squared value of the TM band reflectance. so the six TM bands were collapsed into one canonical correlation analysis (CCA) index that was calculated for a selected subset of the TM bands (Table 1).REMOTE SENSING OF BOREAL FORESTS 127 Built/Urban.92 million ha).2 136 conifer mix Mixed conifers1 -1.26 0. resorts..62 0.63 42. 3 Correlation between multispectral index and observed forest biomass in test data set.58 0.18 0. This method solves a regression equation by minimizing error in both spectral data and the forest attribute. submitted). RMSE for individual forest types ranged between 35 and 51 Mg ha-1 and between 15 and 30 years for biomass and age. and a hand-drawn map of peatlands (Botch.11 0. The overall accuracy of this map was assessed to be 88% (Oetter et al.22 0.5 298 Hardwood/ -0. In addition.59).26 0.77 0. Even though forest age and biomass correlate with each other.

and there are local cases of permafrost. tundra.2. The January mean temperature is ~–22oC. Fifty to sixty percent of precipitation falls between July and September.2 CENTRAL SIBERIA 2. Our study of LandCover Land-Use Change (LCLUC) to date focused on the dynamics of the taiga forests in three territories: Tomsk Oblast. Central Siberia ecoregions include arctic deserts. biomass. Within each of these territories we have established Landsat-sized (185 x 185 km) case study sites in which we have mapped and studied forested ecosystem dynamics occurring over the 25-year timeframe. The ‘light-needle’ coniferous forest includes Scots pine (Pinus silvestris) and larch (Larix sibirica). forest-steppe. Treyfeld et al. Krasnoyarsk Krai. and steppe.115 E). . or as accompanying species in “light-needle” dominated communities (Bondarev 1990). and Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) grow on richer or moister substrates. and snow cover begins in October and remains for seven months. soils may be frozen to a depth of 2 . The climate in the sites is continental with short hot summers and severe winters. Timber clear cuts. but also includes portions of West Siberia (west of the Yenisei River). The study region reported on here is primarily in East Siberia. submitted. Logging started intensively in the 1940s and ‘50s staffed by prisoners of the GULAG operations. submitted). Multispectral indices were developed for each forest type individually and conifer-dominated types had to be further subdivided geographically to isolate the northwestern part of the region with shallow rocky soils. Results show that forest attributes including species composition. and Irkutsk Oblast (Figure 1. and for this reason we call the region Central Siberia.3 meters. During wintertime. respectively) and so did the regional average age for conifers (71 and 68 years) and for hardwoods (44 and 50 years) (Oetter et al. and the Far East. taiga forests in the central part. periodic insect outbreak. and the July mean temperature is ~+18 oC (Popov 1982). fir (Abies sibirica). East Siberia. 50 N . Soils consist of sands and clays. but the approach can be replicated in other regions of Northern Eurasia because similar ground data exist for about half of all forests lands in Russia (Kukuev et al. and the most intensive logging of this type occurred in the 1960s and ‘70s.. Populus tremula) forest and mixed pine-deciduous-larch forests are present on post-disturbance sites. Petersburg region is problematic. Model extrapolation beyond the boundaries of the St. The forest in the case study sites is a mosaic of several communities at various age and disturbance stages. and forest-tundra in the north. 2. 1975-2000. 1997) and in China as well. Deciduous birch-aspen (Betula pendula.1 Study Region The vast land area of Siberia is subdivided geographically into West Siberia. and fire dominate the contemporary disturbance landscape.128 KRANKINA ET AL. and productive agricultural areas in the south. Human settlement in the region started in the 17th century. Mountainous areas are present in the Irkutsk case study site. on slopes of northern exposure. These light-dependent species grow in a range of terrain from xeric to mesic. Physiography includes the Central Siberian plateau dissected by major rivers.. The ‘dark needle’ forests of spruce (Picea obovata)..65 N and 85 E . and age can be successfully modeled using Landsat imagery but models require extensive ground data and appear to be strictly local.

a TM image from approximately 1990 and an ETM+ image from approximately 2000.83 3.13 15.77 28.80 NA 23. and larch).38 1.48 12.88 0. and young regeneration).92 15. infrared.16 NA 8.00 * larch does not form pure stands in these (NA) areas Landsat pre-processing included georectification (using Landsat-7 ETM+ definitive ephemeris and georectifying TM and MSS to the ETM+).85 0. and four forest disturbance classes (recent fire. insect infestation.95 1.00 21.62 89.2. wetland. deciduous. and water. are enhanced by climate warming and human activities.59 3. Insect infestation can lead to the death of forest stands and increased susceptibility to fire.51 8. bare.27 12.41 5.11 100.00 6. insect damage. fuelled by the debris left from the clear-cutting of trees and insect-related tree mortality.77 7. Table 2.96 NA 4. The goal of the LCLUC analysis was to look at change over the time period 1975-2000 using time-series of Landsat imagery.11 0. mixed.00 2. and second is larch.82 34.26 68. fire. Level II forest classes include up to four mature forest classes (conifer.72 0. 1999). urban.32 NA 100.00 0.88 7. Tomsk Krasnoyarsk Irkutsk 147-20 141-20 133-23 Conifer 15. A combination of Landsat visible. Land-cover percentages in 2000 for each of the three case study sites. and thermal bands provides adequate spectral resolution for detection of desired classes.REMOTE SENSING OF BOREAL FORESTS 129 The main harvested species is pine (Pinus sylvestris). The best time-series datasets for case study sites included a MSS image from the mid-1970s. Fires.2 Mapping of Land Cover Our experience with multi-spectral 30 meter Landsat data (and Russian data at similar scales) has demonstrated that it is particularly well suited for documenting spatial and temporal patterns resulting from logging.. agriculture. recent cut. and agricultural abandonment.83 3. and may be increasing in frequency and intensity (Kasischke et al. Pollution from mineral and paper processing and power plants is also an increasing concern.76 8.64 10. Level I land-cover classes in the region are: forest. large areas of forests in Eastern Siberia have been affected by outbreaks of the Siberian silkworm (Dendrolimus sibericus) (Environmental Working Group). haze reduction.00 Total 100. 2.30 0.57 22.09 84. Beginning in the early 1990’s.28 Deciduous Forested Land Cover Mixed Larch* Recently Cleared Recently Burned Insect Damaged New Regrowth Total Forest Other Land Cover Agriculture Wetland Urban Bare 11. and .

Over the 25-year Landsat analysis of the Krasnoyarsk case study site. the area of young forest regrowth in the case study site increased from 17% to 24% during the first 16 years (1974-1990) and decreased to 9% afterward (1990-2000). Sources: Pre-1991 data are from Forest Complex of USSR. 2.130 KRANKINA ET AL.2.. 1991. using the land-cover classes listed above. Statistics derived from remote sensing show a similar pattern and also shed light on additional characteristics. are difficult to label when a single date classification is done. the recently logged class declined from 10% to 4% in the first 16 years (1974-1990) and subsequently remained constant. Some categories. This is also evident from the amount of forest in early secondary succession in the 1974 Landsat MSS image. 2002). particularly forest disturbances. coinciding with the dissolution of the Soviet Union and its state-run and subsidized economy. and therefore.3 Patterns of Forest Disturbance and Regrowth Analyses of statistical data from Russian agencies at national and territorial levels document a steady high rate of logging from 1965 to 1990 and subsequent sharp decrease starting in 1990. A high resolution Corona image from the Krasnoyarsk case study site from 1965 showed that a high percentage of the forested landscape had been logged or burned by that date. minor cloud removal. Logging activity has started to increase in the past several years with new private enterprises. Supervised classification and classification validation was possible using ground-truth data from Russian researchers at the Sukachev Institute of Forest (Krasnoyarsk) transmitted via interpreted images and ancillary data. Total forest cover increased by only 1% (from 57% to 58%) between . a three-date change trajectory approach was developed (Miller et al. Land-cover classifications were created at the highest resolution possible for each time period. Trends in total wood removal (106m3) for the Russian Federation and for each of the three territories of the Central Siberia case study sites. RF Oblast 400 40 350 35 300 30 250 25 200 20 150 15 100 10 50 5 0 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Russian Federation Irkutsk Oblast Krasnoyarsk Krai Tomsk Oblast Figure 3. but to date only very slightly (Figure 3). Goskomstat of Russia. Postclassification land-cover change was calculated at two time intervals. All Union Scientific Research Institute of Economics. Table 2 lists the present (2000-2001) percentage of land-cover in three case study sites derived from our ETM+ classifications. The use of three dates is a key factor in successful change detection. Post-1991 data are from Industry of Russia. Due to decreased logging.

and the dominant species is larch (Larix gmelinni).1 Study Region Northeast China includes three provinces: Liaoning. This is beginning to become apparent on the Landsat imagery. maples. it is present in the larger territories. Japanese Yew) and broadleaf (Amur Linden. Maple birch.3 NORTHEAST CHINA 2. 2003). To the east. A somewhat unexpected finding was the conversion of agricultural lands to forest regrowth. oak) forests are common. Beginning even before the dissolution of the government-run economy. many areas assigned to collective farms began to be vacated. Jilin and Heilongjiang. the forested lands occupy a mountainous perimeter that rings the agricultural Manchurian (Northeast) plain. The west perimeter includes the Da Xingan (Greater Xing’an) Ling Mountains. with abundant oaks. Preliminary investigations show that a similar trend exists in the Tomsk and Irkutsk case study sites. fire may have accounted for less than 2% of total area of change over the period 1974-2000.REMOTE SENSING OF BOREAL FORESTS 131 1974 and 1990.. where the main forests are mixed broadleaf deciduous. and include all of the Boreal forest in China. these areas account for about 30% of the forested land in China. and birch. Once abandoned. Together. Careful assessment of the Krasnoyarsk data shows that agricultural use of the landscape may have been reduced from 14% to 8% gradually over the study period 1974-2000 largely through abandonment of collective farming areas (Bergen et al. Mongolia oak (Quercus mongolica). wetter region mixed evergreen-needleleaf (Korean Pine. coniferous forest has been reduced continuously over the period 1975-2000. Severe insect infestation broke out in 2000 in the Krasnoyarsk site affecting 8% of total land cover. 2003). and this first – and yet early – analysis suggests that this is indeed the case. and then by 10% between 1990 and 2000 (to 68%) (Bergen et al. these agricultural areas acquire shrub cover. . The southernmost perimeter of the region includes the Qian Mountains in Liaoning province. However this is not entirely conclusive as some fires that occurred between the image dates may have been missed. White birch. which extend from north to south through western Heilongjiang and the Inner Mongolian region. while deciduous and mixed forests have increased. In this warmer. with lesser populations of white birch (Betula platyphylla). The climate is cold. Firs. One hypothesis from our LCLUC study is that the change-over from the government-run economy to a market-based system among the nations of the old Soviet Union will leave different “footprints” on the landscape.. and the northeastern part of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (Figure 1D). 2. These remote sensing analyses also show that specific forest communities are changing. eventually succeeding to young deciduous and pine trees. Larch (Larix olgensis) have been planted throughout the division as a major forest crop. the Xiao Xingan (Lesser Xing’an) Ling and Chang Bai Mountains extend through central Heilongjiang and eastern Jilin provinces. In the Krasnoyarsk case study site. Although insect damage was not found in our LCLUC Tomsk and Irkutsk sites. although distinguishing recently abandoned agricultural fields from annual phenological change or crop cycles is somewhat difficult using spectral remote sensing data. In the Krasnoyarsk study site. and David poplar (Populus davidiana). Geographically.3.

unauthorized felling of trees. 2001). Our study of forest cover in Northeast China from remote sensing data was carried out as part of the CEOS Global Observation for Forest and Land-Cover Dynamics (GOFC-GOLD) program and included mapping of forest cover with TerraMODIS data. In addition. the Atlas of Forestry in China (Forest Ministry of China 1990). clearing of forests in many sensitive watersheds has been banned. MODIS 500-meter resolution. During the 13 years after the fire the Da Xingan Ling Forest Bureau invested 350 million yuan to build 127 observation towers and an AVHRR receiving station. a ‘smoothing’ method (Xiao et al. Marginal farmland will be mandated to convert to forest land with government compensation. wild fires have historically played a major role in Northeastern China. current management has dramatically suppressed the frequency of fire in Northeastern China.132 KRANKINA ET AL. such as slash and burn farming. The temporal NDVI data were classified into 255 clusters using ISODATA with 20 iterations.. In this study. Following the disastrous floods of 1998. as a result of agricultural conversion and logging..2 Forest Cover Mapping with TERRA-MODIS Data Although several papers have used multi-temporal AVHRR (Liu et al. Young and Wang.000 forest maps. Similar changes have occurred with respect to forest clearing. and high voltage power lines have also contributed to forest destruction. In addition. The MODIS product from 2000 and 2001 often contained bright and/or dark artifacts. and construction of railroads. This policy may be a turning point for forest sustainability in China (Zhao and Shao. forest-cover dynamics from Landsat-5 and Landsat-7 data.027% during 1988-2000. forest maps with a pixel size less than 1km have not yet been produced for entire region.. 1998. destroyed more than one million ha of forest and nearly 25 million cubic meters of timber in this area (Goldammer and Di. we processed MODIS reflectance data to generate forest cover and type maps at a spatial resolution of 500 meters. significant declines in forest cover occurred throughout the mid-20th century. Following the 1987 fire. 2002). and the Vegetation Atlas of China (Editorial Board of Vegetation Map of China 2001). 2002) data.9% before 1987 to 0. the government and local forest bureaus made fire prevention and suppression a priority. The forests in Northeast China have been undergoing dramatic changes during the last several decades due to human activities and forest management.. although other human activities. Thus. 1990). which burned from 6 May to 4 June 1987. The average area affected by forest fire annually was reduced from 1. and financed mobile fire patrol teams. the Chinese government established the Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) to mitigate future land degradation. the culture of silkworms and edible fungi. A major cause of deforestation during the last century has been commercial lumber production. Although the scope of changes to Chinese forests during the last century has been large. but their effect on carbon fluxes has been only roughly quantified (Fang et al. highways. For example. Landsat-7 images. To rectify these anomalies. since 1978 the Three Norths shelterbelt project has sought to protect agricultural land throughout northern China by planting trees to act as windbreaks and reduce erosion (Yu 1990). a forest fire. As in other areas of Eurasia. These clusters were then labeled by referring to 1:50. 16-day NDVI composites from June 2000 to January 2001 (MOD13A1 product) were used to classify forest extent (Figure 4). while fire is a natural disturbance process in the Boreal forest. 2002) was used. 2001) or SPOT-4 Vegetation (Xiao et al. As in other parts of China. 2.3. .

This could explain discrepancies in observed forest cover between lowand high-resolution data sources. deciduous broadleaf. . The overall accuracy for forests is 79. prepared by the Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology. and needle-broadleaf mix. representing how much information in the map can be predicted by another map.00%.76%. The Ministry of Forestry data were derived from field surveying and aided by airphoto interpretations. and found that the classification accuracies are 92. deciduous needle (larch). Land-cover classification derived from MODIS NDVI time series. (see CD for color image) Land use maps from Landsat-7 ETM+.REMOTE SENSING OF BOREAL FORESTS 133 Evergreen Needleleaf Deciduous Needleleaf (Larch) Deciduous Broadleaf Needle-broadleaf Mixed Shrubland Grassland Wetland Cropland Water Figure 4. The results show that the MODIS classification and the L-7 ETM+ land-use maps share 86. 69. In the 1999/2000 land use map from Landsat images. We also used the average mutual information (AMI) (Finn 1993) to compare the forest distribution patterns between the two maps. 79. and 87.4% of information on forest distribution patterns. there were other categories such as ‘other forests’ and dense shrubs. Table 3 summarizes the percent forest cover of provinces from different sources. The classification accuracies were evaluated in terms of the forest cover areas. in addition to the forest listed in the table.01%. Changchun China (Zhang 2002). respectively. were used to evaluate the accuracy of the MODIS forest cover classification.63%.87% for evergreen needle. AMI is expressed as a percentage of the entropy of one map. It was found that the discrimination between young forests and shrubs in MODIS data was difficult. which amount to 7-12% of the land in Northeastern China.

8% during the 1990’s (Figure 5b). The original 30-meter resolution maps were aggregated to a resolution of 25 Ha (500 x 500 m).4 25. (b) forest loss (black) and gain (white) calculated by comparing 1990 and 2000 Landsat forest extent maps. Xiao et al. 2002 2. there are . Large-scale clearing is particularly pronounced along the eastern edge of the Da Xingan Ling mountains. 2 From Table 1. the land-use maps for 1990 and 2000 were developed by hand-digitizing Landsat5 and Landsat-7 multispectral images.3 Forest Dynamics from Landsat Two approaches were used to examine rates of forest cover change during the 1990’s.440.1 Liaoning 27. 188. Forest loss and gain were defined as > 25% change in forest cover within each 25 Ha cell. Percent forest cover by Provinces.6 31. Thus. has led to significant clearing in these regions. Forest-cover and change from land-use map analysis of Landsat-5 and Landsat-7 imagery.8 Jilin 33. where small plots of hardwoods and softwoods are continuously harvested and reseeded. The total area used for Heilongjiang.764 km2 (Forest Ministry of China 1990). In contrast. is a locus of plantation forestry.3. This region.7 48. Forest-cover losses were most pronounced at the interface between the Manchurian plain and its mountainous perimeter.0 26. Subtracting the two images reveals that forest area in Northeastern China decreased by about 1. Jilin. Table 3.0 37.845. where entire hillsides have been deforested to make way for farming.7 46. fueled partly by population migration from Southern China. with the numeric value of each pixel recording the percentage of forest-cover within each 25 Ha cell (Figure 5a). and 145. forest expansion is concentrated in the Chang Bai and Longgang mountain regions near the North Korean border.2 1 Forest Ministry of China 1990.9 48. which includes the Chang Bai Forest Preserve. First.4 43.4 38. and Liaoning Provinces were 454. Expansion of agriculture from the central plain to the foothills. 1999/2000 Land SPOT VEG MODIS 500m Ministry of Use Map Map2 Map Forestry (1990)1 Heilongjiang 34. (a) (b) Figure 5. (a) Extent of NE China forests (dark gray) in 2000 as mapped from Landsat-5 TM data.134 KRANKINA ET AL..

Based on direct inspection of the imagery. processed to surface reflectance.9 Net -112. All values are area of change (gain. However. were calibrated. Orthorectified Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM+ images.8 Loss -139. . respectively for deforestation. as well as the mean patch size of clearing. A follow-up study is required to assess the effects of the NFCP on forest cover since then. this analysis has been carried out for two regions: the Chang Bai mountains near the Korean border. we feel that the radiometric analysis provides a more accurate view of forest cover change. however. As an initial step. which has led to decreased harvests in the Northeastern region since 1998. for the “no change” class. and the Da Xingan Ling range near the border with Russia and Mongolia.7 33. Significant deforestation has occurred locally. we have independently carried out radiometric change detection for a subset of the Landsat imagery in the Northeast China study region. however. and that the land-use maps may suggest greater activity (both clearing and regrowth) than actually took place during the 1990’s. It should be noted. loss. with “change” being discriminated by using the spectral angle between the two dates for that particular pixel (Sohn and Rubello. it appears that during the decade of the 1990’s forest cover in Northeastern China declined slightly by 0. roughly spanning the 1990-2000 epoch.7 Net -99. that the results presented here only partly reflect the recent National Forest Conservation Program.8 14. The net change calculated from both methods agrees well for both the Da Xingan Ling and Chang Bai regions (Table 4). the specific areas of forest loss and gain differ between the methods for the Chang Bai region. and then radiometrically rectified using histogram matching (Schott et al. 1988).9 174. Comparison of spectral-angle (radiometric) change detection with the land-use map analysis for the Da Xingan Ling and Chang Bai regions. as a result of agricultural conversion within foothills along the perimeter of the Manchurian plain. and net) in thousands of hectares. the Chang Bai region shows significantly lower rates of forest loss than the Da Xingan Ling region.9 Gain 26. with the land-use map analysis suggesting greater rates of both clearing and regrowth than found from our radiometric analysis. respectively.2% per year. and 93% and 97%.8 Loss -133.9 In summary.REMOTE SENSING OF BOREAL FORESTS 135 systematic differences across the study area both in terms of the total area cleared. Again. Initial validation of the radiometric change algorithm based on visual inspection of small training regions indicate producer’s and consumer’s accuracies of 79% and 62%.7 -159.2 -25. Spectral Angle Analysis Landuse Map Gain Da Xingan Ling Chang Bai 34.8 -59. As an alternative to the land-use map analysis. 2002). Table 4. Radiometric change detection was carried out for each pixel. Deforestation and regrowth/afforestation were separated according to the direction of the spectral trajectories in the visible and shortwave-infrared bands..

the logging reductions associated with the Chinese National Forest Conservation program will likely reverse the observed decline in forest cover in the coming years.5% of forest cover loss between 1988 and 2000. During Russia’s transition to a market economy in the early 1990’s. were similar to those in Siberia (7. Presently logging has replaced fire as the dominant disturbance factor to a different degree in all three case studies. The varied proportions of disturbed forest areas in the study regions reflect the net effect of forest disturbance and regeneration processes. in the Northeast China case study the primary goal was to map current forest cover and track the changes during the 1990's as a basis for a GIS-based monitoring system designed to update forest cover maps in the future. In the Krasnoyarsk study site some of the burned areas fail to regenerate. driven partly by immigration from the poorer regions of southern China. Petersburg region. due probably to repeated fires.3% of the total forest area while burned area is only about 0. However. In the future.1% (Krankina et al. Decreasing logging activity contributed to shrinking the area of forest re-growth. Conversely in China. Fire was the greatest disturbance factor in the Irkutsk case study site (Table 2). its many important attributes. logging was reduced to one-half of the previously logged area (Figure 3). In addition.136 KRANKINA ET AL. or poor soil conditions. economic decline contributed to further abandonment of agricultural lands that started even prior to the transition period. Petersburg case study focused on mapping the attributes of forest cover that are needed for spatial modeling of carbon dynamics. most of it due to clearcut harvest). the Central Siberia case study emphasized mapping of land-cover change as a basis for modeling the effects of socio-economic change on land cover dynamics. Logging rates in Northeastern China. Remotely sensed data in combination with ground observations and existing maps proved effective in the analysis of forest cover. however. while in the other two case study sites (Tomsk and Krasnoyarsk) the most current disturbance came from logging activity. insect outbreaks. In Northeastern China. and its change over time in all three study regions. In different parts of the St. In Central Siberia in 2000. In the St. 3 Discussion Historically fire was the dominant disturbance factor over the entire territory of Northern Eurasia. The three case studies highlight different aspects and varied applications of LCLUC research: the St. fire suppression since the 1980’s proved to be particularly effective and reduced the impact of fire to extremely low levels similar to those in the St. Socio-economic driving forces created divergent patterns of timber harvest in the 1990’s in Russia and China.3% to 1. the recently logged area is between 5 and 10% of forest area in examined study sites. . long-term failure of forest regeneration would be a rare exception because of active reforestation programs in both regions. Petersburg region the area of recent clearcuts ranges from 0. 2001). Most of the abandoned farmlands were developing into young deciduous forests. the case study suggests that agricultural conversion remained extensive during the 1990’s. Petersburg region and in Northeastern China alike. fire suppression combined with recently imposed restrictions on logging will alter significantly disturbance regimes in Northeastern China with unknown effects on ecosystem structure and composition.

Irkutsk. W. G. Ecosystems 5:122-137. T. Changes in forest biomass carbon storage in China between 1949 and 1998.. Fiorella. MI USA. A. Editorial Board of Vegetation Map of China. Bergen. and D.K. TX USA. 4. T. Daniel Brown. Characterizing 23 years (1972-1995) of stand replacement disturbance in western Oregon forests with Landsat imagery. and X. 137 pp. G. Sukachev Institute of Forest.J. The University of Michigan. of Landscape Ecology. 2003. T. N. Ministry of Natural Resources. Dyakun F. 1995. CAS. Bryan Emmett. USA. Zhao.000 Vegetation Atlas of China. P.K. T. Mediterranean and northern perspectives. Peng. “Forest dynamics in the East Siberian boreal forest: analysis using timeseries statistical and satellite data. Yuri Blam and Olga Mashkina.K.N.B. 1993. The Hague.. 292. 2001.” Proceedings IGARSS. 1999. An improved strategy for regression of biophysical variables and Landsat ETM+ data. S. Landsat TM. and M. et al. USDA FS Gen Tech Rep NE-244.V. 1990. 1998. International Journal of Remote Sensing 22:2279-2310. Houston.. W..T.. Danilova S..A.N. K. Int.. Novosibirsk. Carbon storage in forests and peatlands of Russia. Northeast China . Elena Fedotova. Miller. St.. Filimonov B.. RAS Institute for Economics. T.. J. U.. W. 4 References Alexeyev V. and Jenkins M. “A categorical-radiometric method for forest land-cover change detection in Russia using hybrid Landsat MSS. Satellite Imaging Corporation. Remote Sensing of Environment 84:561-571. Gower. Forest fund of Russia: statistical summary (survey of January 1. M. Forest Inventory and Forest Regulation. Beijing. C. Leonid Vaschuk.. Alig. John Colwell. . and Thomas Maiersperger and Gody Spycher of Oregon State University. Petersburg case study – Rudolf Treyfeld and Ewgenii Povarov of Northwestern State Forest Inventory Enterprise. et al.A. K. 1990. (eds) 1995. The importance of measurement error for certain procedures in remote sensing at optical wavelengths. in the Central Siberia case study – Lara Peterson. Siberian Technological Institute: 94-100.A. Dynamics of forest regeneration in the Central Pryangar'ye. Fang. J. “Mapping the severe 1998 forest fires in the Russian Far East using NOAA AVHRR imagery.B. L. 2002. Use of the average mutual information index in evaluating classification error and consistency. and Birdsey R. Russia.A. No. 2002. and M.. Spies. Oetter.” EOS. in Russian). SPB Academic Publishing. Goldammer.A. T. Vol. 1990. Tingting Zhao. 16:721746. Curran.-Russian Joint Commission on Economic and Technological Cooperation: 13. J.P. W.. Krasnoyarsk.A.B. Di.REMOTE SENSING OF BOREAL FORESTS 137 Acknowledgements. Environmental Working Group Boreal forest characterization and sustainability study.S. Forest Ministry of China. Krasnoyarsk. Ann Arbor. China Surveying Press. V.. Maiersperger. 2320-2322. Heilongjiang. Ann Arbor. Chen.R. Maierpserger. Kasischke.K. Kukuev Y. The 1:1000. Turner. S. 1986.. A. Annual Conference. pp. T. Modeling forest cover attributes as continuous variables in a regional context with Thematic Mapper data. and Hay. Photogramm Eng Remote Sensing 52:229–241. Cohen. Russia. Zhao.. Cohen . S. 2001.a preliminary model.V. China. Bergen. Veridian. 7.V. J. We acknowledge the following contributors to research presented in this chapter: in the St. Fire and forest development in the Daxinganling Montane-Boreal coniferous forest. Petersburg. R. et al. and Ci. Spies. 2001. Science. and Landsat ETM+ data.B. 2003. Russia. In Goldammer J. Atlas of Forestry in China. Cohen. 2002. Estimating the age and structure of forests in a multiownership landscape of western Oregon. Oetter. A. Sdobnova V. Finn. Journal of Geographical Information Systems.report on phase I and II results.” International Assoc. E. Maiersperger. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 175-184. Filipchuk A. K. Strakhov V. pp.A. Russia.J. 1993. Nicole Miller. Fiorella. and D...R. Spies. Bergen. Science Press.M. 349-366. T. MI USA. Beijing China. Bondarev. Cohen. (eds) Fire in Ecosystem Dynamics. D.

. 34-37. 4..J.. China. and E. Williams. Linko S. M. Y. O. J. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing.R. 128:109– 120 Krankina.E. Harmon. 2002. In: Harmon. Fiorella.N. In press..D. Boles. The use of Russian forest inventory data for carbon budgeting and for developing carbon offset strategies.. and Wang. 49: 93–104. Volchock. W. Xiao. The Forest Inventory System in Russia. M. Ecological Studies. Cohen. Characterization of forest types in Northeastern China. Vol. Maiersperger. D. June 24-28. Journal of Forestry 95(9): 15-20 Kupidonova T. Rocchio. Remote Sensing. 2002.. N. J. Land-cover change analysis of China using global-scale Pathfinder AVHRR Landcover (PAL) data. 100. N. Carbon dynamics of two forest ecosystems: Northwestern Russia and the Pacific Northwest. Accuracy comparison of various remote sensing data sources in the retrieval of forest stand attributes.N. Y. 68. Ontario. using multi-temporal SPOT-4 VEGETATION sensor data. Ecol. O. 2001. and M.. Sohn. G. C. Zhuang D. Krankina. R. Russia (in Russian) Liu. R. 1998. M. 2000. F. W.. Zhao. X. W. and Shao.E and Krankina.N. 22(8): 1457-1477. Mgmt. Y. Y. Petersburg. Journal of Remote Sensing.. 285-291 (in Chinese). Xian (in Chinese). 2002. I.. O. Zhuang.A. and Ling. F. Young.. Vegetation integrated classification and mapping using remote sensing and GIS techniques in Northeast China. St. Treyfeld. Toronto. 1271-1280. Radiometric scene normalization using pseudoinvariant features. Engdahl M. Ecol. C. X. M. Masek.. D. Liu. 1988. Ranson. O.. 1982-92. Krankina. 2001. Oetter. St.. Treyfeld. 1998. Hyyppä H.. editors.F. pp. (ed) 1994. For. 1997. Cohen. and Liu. Russia. Coarse woody debris in the forests of St. J. L. J. . Inkinen M. 4.. Remote Sensing of Environment.H..K. S. Chracterization of Forest recovery from fire using Landsat and SAR data. G. World Resource Review 10(1): 5266 Krankina.R. Remote Sensing Studies of Ecology and Environment in Three-North Regions. Petersburg region. 2002. Spycher. Land Cover Mapping for Carbon Studies in the St. J..S. Journal of Forestry. Y. Y. pp. 82. 2-3. Petersburg Region of Northwest Russia and comparisons with Western Oregon. 335-348. Zhu Y. Povarov. and T. S. Proceedings of IGARSS’02. G. Salvaggio. Remote Sensing of the Environment. S. 1990. and K. V.. Bull. G. Int. L. Canada. Yu. Logging restrictions in China – A turning point for forest sustainability.N. No. Hyyppä J..B. Leningrad Oblast (map). Supervised and unsupervised spectral angle classifiers. D. F.F. Sun.138 KRANKINA ET AL.A. M. Science Press. 26: 1-10. and Rebello. B. Harmon. Schott. O. E. J. Kukuev. Petersburg: State Enterprise Aerial Geodesy. Springer-Verlag.

2001. Land cover in Canada and Alaska has been undergoing substantial changes in recent decades (Kurz and Apps. Department of Geography. KIMBALL8. 1999). Victoria. Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit. Geological Survey. Boston. Stocks et al. Flathead Lake Biological Station. Canada 3 University of Alaska Fairbanks. VERBYLA11. KURZ2.S. U. MT 9 NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Institute of Arctic Biology. it can be inferred that there were largescale synchronous disturbances that occurred in the 1860s throughout Canada and Alaska. CHAPIN III3. which occupy an area of approximately 4 million km2 (~10% of global forest area). 139–161.D. and more subtle changes in vegetation dynamics that influence seasonal functioning (e. . 2003a). Printed in the Netherlands. KASISCHKE6.5 years old (Kurz and Apps. D. Pasadena. Lloyd et al. Fairbanks.1 million km2. Fairbanks. Q.S. J. Department of Geography. MA 8 University of Montana. Gutman et al. J. MELILLO7. M.. British Columbia. 2002). Marine Biological Lab. R. 2002). MCRAE5. Canada 6 University of Maryland. ZHUANG7 University of Alaska Fairbanks. Silapaswan et al. Between 1920 and 1970 the average stand age of forests in Canada increased from less than 60 years old to 81.). © U. 1999) and in Alaska in the 1960s (Yarie and Billings. fire. 139 G. F. Pacific Forestry Centre. timber harvest.S. AK 2 Canadian Forest Service.g. MCGUIRE1.J. 2002. APPS2.D. Paris. Government. From the forest age class distribution in Canada in 1920 (Kurz and Apps. (eds. MYNENI10. represent a wood resource of global economic significance with Canada responsible for approximately 11% of global industrial roundwood production in the 1990s (Perez-Garcia.L. Podur et al. Sault Ste. AK 4 Laboratiore des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE) CEA/CNRS. In the Western Hemisphere North of 50o N. MCDONALD9. D. Marie. KICKLIGHTER7. Important changes in land cover that have recently occurred and that may continue to occur in the region include abrupt changes associated with disturbance (e. almost 10% of the vegetated cover of the Earth's surface. 2000.S.J. Missoula.g.... MD 7 The Ecosystems Center. R. M. College Park. E. MA 11 University of Alaska Faribanks. terrestrial interactions with the climate system are dominated by the land mass of Canada and Alaska. Land Change Science. Sturm et al. W. 1999. Great Lakes Forestry Centre. France 5 Canadian Forest Service..CHAPTER 9 LAND COVER DISTURBANCES AND FEEDBACKS TO THE CLIMATE SYSTEM IN CANADA AND ALASKA A. CA 10 Boston University. AK 1 1 Introduction Canada and Alaska occupy an area of 11. FLANNIGAN5. B. K.. DARGAVILLE4. Fairbanks.. School of Agriculture and Land Resource Management. insect outbreaks. D. Ontario. and agriculture). 2001. These disturbances have substantially influenced the structure of forests in the latter half of the 20th Century. STOCKS5. The forests of this region. Woods Hole.

2003). the advance of tree line in regions now occupied by tundra and changes in the area of surface waters). Stocks et al. 2001. carbon dioxide and methane) with the atmosphere. and the implications of these changes for the climate system and for the ecological.140 MCGUIRE ET AL. On average over the last 50 years.... infrastructure. economic. We extend our discussion of controls to evaluate how land cover change might respond to possible future changes in the region.. these fires account for 97% of the area burned (Stocks et al. There are three major pathways through which land cover changes in Canada and Alaska may influence the climate system: (1) water/energy exchange with the atmosphere. 2002. and consequences of land cover change in Canada and Alaska. 2 Dynamics. commercial timber resources. Land cover changes also have implications for the ecological. (2) the exchange of radiatively active gases (e. and Future Responses of Land Cover Change in Canada and Alaska 2. In this chapter we present our current understanding of the dynamics and controls for important avenues of land cover change in the region including fire. 2003).. The northward movement of the treeline (Lloyd et al. oil and gas development).000 ha burns annually in Alaska (Kasischke et al.5 and 7 . 2002. approximately 2 million ha burns annually in Canada (Amiro et al. insect disturbance.. Fires in the boreal forest are responsible for about 94% of the annual area burned in Canada. Kasischke et al. and changes in the area of surface waters. Finally...g.1 FIRE DISTURBANCE In Canada and Alaska.. Controls. and (3) delivery of fresh water to the Arctic Ocean... Interannual variability in the amount of area burned ranges between approximately 0. The exchange of water and energy between the terrestrial surface and the atmosphere has implications for regional climate that may influence global climate. human land use. 2003a) and the increase in tundra shrubs (Silapaswan et al. and cultural sustainability of the region. Sturm et al.g. while the exchange of radiatively active gases and the delivery of fresh water to the Arctic Ocean are processes that could directly influence climate at the global scale (McGuire et al. and cultural sustainability of Canada and Alaska. Land cover changes have implications for human livelihoods in Canada and Alaska and elsewhere through effects on subsistence resources. a difference that is largely explained by the larger area of boreal forest in Canada relative to Alaska. and industrial activity (e. controls. 2002)... 2001) associated with warming climate in much of the region has the potential to eliminate some tundra types from the Canadian Archipelago in northern Canada if climate warming continues (Gould et al. 2001) and about 250. changes in the timing of soil freezing and thawing) or the spatial distribution of vegetation (e. fire represents an important disturbance that is much more prevalent in boreal forests than in tundra and temperate forests of the region (McGuire et al. While only about 3% of the fires in Canada are larger than 200 ha. we discuss the future challenges to understanding the patterns. it is important to understand how and why land cover is changing in the region. 2003).g. 2003a).. Because of the large area occupied by Canada and Alaska. vegetation dynamics. a similar pattern exists in Alaska. economic. We then discuss the implications of future changes for major feedbacks to the climate system.

which is more flammable than white spruce.. While the fire frequency in Alaska has not been demonstrated to have statistically increased during the late 20th Century. fire frequency was relatively low (Lloyd et al. Analyses of the response of fire weather to projections of future climate change suggest that climate change has the potential to substantially increase fire frequency throughout much of the boreal forest in North America (Wotton and . 2003). evidence from Alaska suggests that there are important interactions between climate and vegetation that may affect the fire regime. these analyses indicate that fire frequency in the Canada and Alaska region has increased in the late 20th Century and has the potential to increase in response to continued climate warming. Although Alaska was warmer in the mid-Holocene when forests were dominated by white spruce. which provided conditions for the migration of black spruce in interior Alaska (Lynch et al. may play a larger role than climate in affecting the fire regime. However. climate. area burned is related to blocking highs in the westerlies that cause long sequences of days with low rainfall and relative humidity below 60%. Approximately 68% of the total area burned in Alaska from 1940 to 1998 occurred during 15 years characterized by a moderate to strong El Nino. unpublished). and vegetation (Clark.. The paleorecord of fire for boreal forests in North America provides substantial evidence for linkages among fire.. which is important for the lateral spread of fire. 2003). Fire frequency increased in Alaska about 5000 years ago during a time when the climate was becoming cooler and wetter.. decreasing growing season precipitation. it appears that presence or absence of black spruce. Flannigan et al.. there is evidence that fire frequency was higher in Canada approximately 6000 years ago during the mid-Holocene when conditions were warmer because of greater insolation associated with variation in the earth’s orbit (Kutzbach et al.. 2002). 1988). and relative humidity (Flannigan and Harrington.. 2003b). conditions in interior Alaska with above normal temperatures throughout the year and normal precipitation from February to August (Hess et al. 2001) and for provinces of Canada (Flannigan and Harrington. 2001). and increasing lightning frequency (Kasischke et al. In comparison with the current fire regime. 2001. McGuire. 2000. temperature. the fire frequency in northwest Canada increased substantially during the 1970s and 1980s in association with a warming climate (Kurz and Apps. and the occurrence of fire within a month depends on rainfall frequency. In the last half of the 20th Century. 2003). Among different ecoregions of Alaska. the area burned in a particular year is positively correlated with mean June temperature and negatively correlated with the depth of snowpack near the end of winter (Duffy et al. 2003). 2003. 1999. In contemporary Alaska. 2001) and between <0.LAND COVER DISTURBANCES AND CLIMATE 141 million ha in Canada (Amiro et al.. Carcaillet et al.. Podur et al.. Together. 1988). fire cycle decreases with increasing growing season temperature. 2003).7 million ha in Alaska (Kasischke et al. In Canada. 2001).. The proximate linkages of these conditions to fire are to lightning as an ignition source and to moisture content of forest floor organic matter. Analyses of the fire regimes in Canada and Alaska during the latter half of the 20th Century have established that inter-annual variability in area burned is linked to inter-annual variability in climate for Alaska (Hess et al. 1988... there have been four large fire years since 1980 in comparison with two large fire years between 1950 and 1980 (Kasischke et al. From a millennial temporal perspective. Stocks et al...1 and 1. In Alaska. 1993). the fire cycle decreases as the percent of tree cover increases among ecoregions in the state (Kasischke et al.

. 2003). but these ignitions result in only 10% of the area burned (Kasischke et al. 2003). 2003).142 MCGUIRE ET AL. and the larch sawfly. 2001. 2003). as the fires started by humans are generally quickly detected and accessed because they are located in proximity to transportation networks. and the Mountain pine beetle. but the effective area of insect-induced stand mortality is less than 300. Finally. there has been an attempt to account for these issues in the estimates of insect-induced stand mortality in Canada (Kurz and Apps. Since approximately 1920. lightning ignitions are largely distributed throughout the interior between the Brooks and Alaska Ranges. which are less flammable than spruce forests and inhibit the spread of fire. Although humans are an important source of fire ignition in boreal forests. Flannigan et al. Forest succession has led to the replacement of spruce forests in many areas by aspen and birch forests. For example. In Alaska.. The low amount of area burned from human-caused fires is the result of poor burning conditions at the time of ignition and responsive fire suppression efforts. the spear-marked black moth. 2.2 million ha of forests in Canada have annually experienced insect-induced stand mortality (Kurz and Apps. between 1 . Insects responsible for major infestations in Canada include the eastern spruce budworm. 1993. Insects responsible for major infestations in Alaska include the spruce beetle. Insect-induced stand mortality in Canada has been generally less than 1 million ha annually since about 1920. near Fairbanks there was substantial harvesting of spruce forests during the settlement period in the early 1900s. While fire suppression is important in promoting longer fire cycles near population centers. the eastern spruce budworm. 1999). the suppression of fires. 2003). insect infestations annually affect a similar amount of area as does fire in the forests in Canada (Kurz and Apps. the alteration of fuels by human land use likely plays a role as well. humans cause more than 60% of all ignitions. 1999)... In Canada. but humancaused ignitions are largely confined to the road network (Gabriel and Tande. In Alaska. but has been greater than 2 million ha annually .2 INSECT DISTURBANCE On average. they are not responsible for the majority of area burned. 2001). the hemlock looper. recent analyses indicate that fire cycles are longer near population centers (Chapin et al. the Jack pine budworm. and land use that alters the spatial distribution of fuels. Kasischke et al. Stocks et al. Records in Alaska indicate that insect infestation affects approximately 300. Humans affect fire regimes in the boreal forest through the ignition of fires. 1983. the fire regime may be influenced by insect infestations as stands affected by insect disturbance may be more vulnerable to fire because tree mortality generally increases the flammability of forest stands.000 ha annually (Werner et al. 1998. The combination of fire suppression and spatial alteration of fuels is presumably responsible for a fire cycle near Fairbanks that is estimated to be four times longer than the fire cycle of areas in interior Alaska located away from population centers. Flannigan.000 ha because successive years of attack are required to cause stand mortality and only a portion of the stands affected are host species for the attacking insect. A similar situation exists in Canada as 80% of the area burned is attributed to fires ignited by lightning.. the large-aspen tortrix. In Alaska.. human-caused ignitions are more prevalent in the more heavily populated southern area of the boreal ecozone. 1999) and Alaska (Werner et al. Flannigan and Wotton..

and the large aspen tortrix (~12 years) and the spear-marked black moth (~10 years) in Alaska (Werner et al. a single generation of spruce beetle can require either one or two years to mature. While most of this land was derived from the conversion of grassland ecosystems in the prairie provinces of Canada. Controls over the population dynamics of insects responsible for tree mortality are not well understood. Agriculture in Canada is estimated to have expanded from 10. 2003).7 million ha in 1920 and then to 45. Thus. 1985). and this generally depends on temperature (Werner and Holsten.0 million ha at the expense of agriculture. which is hypothesized to occur on approximately a 30-year cycle. like the spruce budworm in eastern Canada (~30 years. Canadian forests have had a net gain of 3. 2003).. The high levels of mortality during the 1940s and the 1970-80s were largely associated with the outbreak of the eastern spruce budworm in eastern Canada. and the larch beetle.000 ha annually) with outbreaks of the spruce beetle.6 million ha in 1990 (McCuaig and Manning. 2000). It has been hypothesized by Werner et al. Kurz and Apps..LAND COVER DISTURBANCES AND CLIMATE 143 during the 1940s and greater than 3 million ha annually during the 1970-80s (Kurz and Apps. the evidence from interior Alaska and elsewhere suggests that irruptive responses of insects are influenced by complex interactions between abiotic factors. the large aspen tortrix. 1982. 2. Werner et al.. the eastern spruce budworm. 2003). Thus. 1999) to 28. 2003). and during the 1990s (approximately 500.. 1999). 2003). and biotic factors. 1985). 2003).5 million ha between 1860 and 1992 (based on Ramankutty and Foley.000 ha.. 2003).. Some insects seem to cycle on a regular basis. Ips engraver beetles tend to infest stressed and dying trees near the edges of fires in interior Alaska (Werner and Post. The outbreak of the larch sawfly during the late 1990s is estimated to have killed most of the larch in interior Alaska (> 650. it is important to recognize that most of the afforestation has occurred in eastern Canada and deforestation continues to occur in western Canada.000 ha annually) with outbreaks of the spear-marked black moth. (2003) that this infestation may be due to temperature-induced drought stress that has been experienced by white spruce in interior Alaska in association with warmer summers (see Barber et al. it is estimated that there was a net deforestation of 12. such as host plant physiology (Werner et al. 1999).. In comparison to infestations in eastern Canada.9 million ha of cropland in 1860 (based on Ramankutty and Foley. cropland establishment .3 HUMAN LAND USE Major uses of land that have affected terrestrial ecosystems of Canada and Alaska include agriculture and forest harvest. Statistics Canada 1992 and the series of similar publications for each province). For example. While this is a low proportion of the total forest base (<1%). Factors that stress trees appear to be an important factor influencing insect outbreaks in Alaska (Werner et al. outbreaks of the eastern spruce budworm in Alaska have only been observed to occur in the 1990s when it infested around 600.000 ha (Werner et al. 1999). Insect infestations in Alaska peaked during the late 1970s (over 600.. and the larch sawfly (Werner et al. such a temperature. For example. Since 1950. It appears that warmer summers in south-central Alaska during the 1990s may have caused a shift from a twoyear to a one-year life cycle for spruce beetles that played a role in the large outbreak of the 1990s (Werner et al. Effects of warming temperatures on the life cycles of insects may also play an important role in insect outbreaks.

During the latter half of the 20th Century. This occurs because the increased growing stocks are predicted to lead to lower prices. and lower prices are expected to cause timber producers to adjust their losses by harvesting 1% to 3% less timber by 2100 in comparison to harvest rates without climate change (Perez-Garcia et al. 1996. Recent trends of forest harvest rates in Canada and Alaska are substantially influenced by economics of the global forest sector as much of the harvested wood is exported out of the region to markets in Asia and the conterminous United States.S.. For the Canadian forest sector. 1997). 2. 1987). 2002). Annual forest harvest in Canada has approximately doubled from ~0.. Pacific northwest during the 1990s. While agricultural development in Alaska represents a miniscule proportion of the land cover. Naske and Slotnick. the collapse of the Asian economies was somewhat offset by increased demand from the United States in the wake of decreased forest harvest in the U. where annual forest harvest increased over six fold from 1952 to 1992 (Joyce et al.. interior Alaska and adjacent Canada experienced substantial disturbance at the turn of the 20th Century in association with gold exploration. a pattern that has also been inferred to occur across the boreal forest region in analyses . timber harvest in Alaska has primarily been concentrated on old-growth Sitka spruce coastal forests of the Tongass National Forest and private lands in southeast Alaska.5 million ha in 1970 to ~1 million ha in 1990. 2002). The height of this activity was felt when more than 1000 stern-wheeled riverboats operated on the Yukon River and 12 sawmills operated out of Dawson City. 2000). Climate warming has lengthened the growing season in Alaska (Keyser et al. Forest harvest in the Tanana River Basin of interior Alaska since 1970 has been less than 500 ha per year.. One coupled ecological-economic assessment projects that climate change may have a negative impact on forest harvest of Canada over the next century even though it estimates an increase in timber growing stocks (Perez-Garcia et al..144 MCGUIRE ET AL.4 VEGETATION DYNAMICS Climate change in Canada and Alaska is currently influencing land cover through effects on vegetation dynamics that are not directly associated with stand-level disturbances like fire and forest harvest.. which is a very tiny proportion of the estimated 600. These decreased harvest rates are expect to cause economic welfare losses to forest sector Canada of between 2 and 14 billion 1993 $US compared with analyses that assume no climate change (Perez-Garcia et al. 1996). Pacific northwest. 2002).2 years in 1990 (Kurz and Apps. 1999). and abandonment is an important process that is likely having different impacts across Canada. The combined effect of increased forest harvest and other disturbances has led to a decrease in the mean stand age of Canadian forests from 81. 2000) and western Canada (Serreze et al.S.. 2002). Yukon Territory and produced approximately 12 million board feet of lumber annually (Wurtz and Gasbarro. Concern over conservation issues and the collapse of Asian economies in the 1990s have had substantial impacts in decreasing forest harvest in Alaska and the U. Canada is a country that largely exports harvested wood.000 ha of productive forests on state lands of the river basin (Crimp et al. It is estimated that by the 1930s much of the accessible timber along the Yukon and Tanana Rivers in Alaska was exhausted (Wurtz and Gasbarro.5 years in 1970 to 78.

which causes soils to thaw earlier (Zhuang et al. Kimball et al. Zhuang et al. Lake ice has also been observed to be melting earlier across much the northern hemisphere in recent decades (Magnuson et al. Passive microwave data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) radiometers have detected changes across Canada and Alaska in springtime thaw date from 1988 through 2001. 2002). 2002. Dye. with some regions showing a tendency toward earlier thaw and others showing a later thaw. and meteorological processes dramatically (Running et al. hydrologic. The primary mechanism responsible for longer growing seasons appears to be earlier snowmelt in spring (Dye. The spatial distribution of this rate of change is complex... Beginning with its launch aboard the QuikSCAT platform in June 1999. Finally. and allow examination of the spatial heterogeneity in the thaw transition. 2001). and indicate that the thaw date has advanced about 0. 2001.88 days per year across the 14-year period (Figure 1). The ability of the scatterometer to allow day and night monitoring of the land surface independent of cloud cover. the SeaWinds scatterometer has provided a capability for monitoring changes from frozen to thawed states across much of Canada and Alaska.. Merging the landscape thaw maps .... 2003).. 2000). Microwave remote sensing techniques have proven useful for mapping seasonal freeze/thaw dynamics in boreal/arctic latitudes (Frolking et al. 1999). affecting ecological.. and the timing of spring thaw is strongly linked to the annual carbon balance in boreal ecosystems (Frolking et al. the higher resolution Synthetic Aperture Radars (SARs) provide a capability to monitor spatial and temporal patterns in springtime thaw across smaller regions. 1999. Zhou et al. The duration of the frost-free period bounds the length of the growing season in coniferous species of the boreal forest. The seasonal transition of the northern landscape from a frozen to a thawed condition represents the closest analog to a biospheric on-off switch that exists in nature. Figure 1. Advance in Northern North America Thaw Day.. combined with its moderate spatial resolution (~25 km) and wide swath width enable daily observation of the spatial and temporal dynamics of freeze-thaw cycles in the circumpolar high latitudes.LAND COVER DISTURBANCES AND CLIMATE 145 based on satellite remote sensing and modeling of freeze-thaw dynamics (Myneni et al. 1996). 1997. 2003).

Lavoie and Payette. Lloyd and Fastie. 2000). Both fire and the melting of permafrost may play a role in this treeline expansion (Lloyd and Fastie. Scott et al. Vitt et al. whereas the growth of trees located at tree line.. production may not increase if other factors limit production.. there appears to be substantial spatial variability in the response of white spruce growth to recent warming in Alaska...... particularly in wet regions. 1993.. A tree-ring study to reconstruct the response of tree line on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska to warming indicates that spruce trees located in upland tundra have established progressively farther from the forest limit since the 1880s (Lloyd et al. Analyses based on satellite data suggest that both production and vegetation carbon storage have generally been enhanced across the boreal forest in recent decades (Myneni et al. 1997. 2002). a change that is consistent with observations that snowmelt is occurring earlier and that soils and lake ice are thawing earlier. 2000). 1999. 1987. Le Dizes et al. The replacement of tundra with boreal forest occurred in earlier warm periods of Holocene in western Canada (Spear. 2001) and on the Seward Peninsula (Silapaswan et al.. Over the last half century. and studies conducted elsewhere on other species throughout the boreal forest suggest that growth responses of warming depends on interactions between temperature and the timing and amount of precipitation (Briffa et al. Suarez et al. 2003a). In contrast to tree line changes. Lloyd et al. changes in the canopy structure of tundra have been detectable through analysis of photographic and satellite imagery at sub-decadal to multi-decadal scales... 2003b). Although there is substantial evidence that warming can increase production in the boreal forest through longer growing seasons and through enhancing soil nitrogen availability to plants (McGuire et al. Randerson et al. 1999. D'Arrigo and Jacoby. 2001). 1986. Jacoby et al. 2003) and Canada (Morin and Payette. 1985. Zhou et al. While changes in treeline on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska have been documented in the field. increased (Lloyd and Fastie. drainage.. Observations of permafrost warming in both western Canada and Alaska are associated with warming climate over the last 30 years (Romanovsky and Osterkamp. Zhou et al. This has led to a conversion of shrub tundra into low-density forest-tundra within a band extending approximately 10 km from the forest limit. 1995). Two such studies have documented that tundra ecosystems in Alaska are becoming shrubbier on the North Slope (Sturm et al. For example. the growth of trees located in warm dry sites below the forest margin declined in response to recent warming. with land cover and topography maps elucidates the spatial and temporal complexity of freeze/thaw processes with respect to variable landcover.. 1998. 1984. Osterkamp and Romanovsky. 2001).. Lloyd et al. slope and aspect. 2003a.. tree line advances into tundra have been documented in Alaska (Cooper. 1994). 1997.. Thus. 2001) over the last several decades. 2003a). 2001. 2002. 1997. 2000. 1993)... warming has reduced the growth in old white spruce trees growing on south-facing aspects in interior Alaska because of drought stress (Barber et al.. 2001). Winter processes may .146 MCGUIRE ET AL. Climate warming also has the potential to alter the position of the treeline. At tree line in Alaska. Jacoby and D'Arrigo. These studies are consistent with modeling studies in which additional wood growth is supported by inorganic soil nitrogen that is enhanced by summer warming (McKane et al. 1997.. 1999. these changes have not been detectable by remote sensing technologies because the changes are not captured at the radiometric and spectral resolution of satellite imagery at decadal and subdecadal time scales (Silapaswan et al. 2003).. observations that are generally consistent with large-scale remote-sensing studies (Myneni et al. Clein et al.

and subarctic areas that are permafrost-free (Berg. unfrozen zones called taliks may be found under lakes because of the ability of water to store and vertically transfer heat energy. 2. 2002). For example.. 1997. Hawkins and Maltam. The reduction of open water bodies may reflect a warmer and effectively drier climate. 1999). One possible mechanism for the decrease in open water is an increase in evapotranspiration as temperatures rise and precipitation does not significantly increase. 2001. Figure 2. an increase in precipitation of at least 20 percent would be needed to maintain the present-day water balance of a subarctic fen.. Modeling studies suggest that the biomass of tundra ecosystems in Canada and Alaska is likely to increase with climate warming over the next century (McGuire et al.. analyses of remotely sensed imagery generally indicate that there has been a significant loss of open water bodies over the past 20 years in many areas of Alaska and adjacent Canada.. 2003). 2003). 2003). Significant water body losses have occurred in areas dominated by permafrost (Hawkins. However. which is consistent with tree ring analyses that have shown temperature-induced drought stress in some areas of Alaska (Barber et al. Rouse (1998) estimated that under a 2 X CO2 climate warming scenario. 2000. Le Dizes et al. which generally restricts infiltration of surface water to the sub-surface groundwater. 2000). 2000.LAND COVER DISTURBANCES AND CLIMATE 147 also play a role in supporting additional wood growth through both biophysical and biogeochemical effects of warmer and wetter winters (Sturm et al.. Yoshikawa and Hinzman. This mechanism may be important in areas that have discontinuous permafrost such as the boreal forest region of Alaska.. Lloyd and Fastie. Another possible mechanism is associated with permafrost. As climate warming occurs.5 CHANGES IN THE AREA OF SURFACE WATERS While there are observations that the melting of permafrost is leading the expansion of open water in the Tanana Flats of interior Alaska (Osterkamp et al. Lafleur (1993) estimated that a summer temperature increase of 4 oC would require an increase in summer precipitation of 25% to maintain present water balance. areas of discontinuous permafrost (Hinzman et al. 2000). . these talik regions can expand and provide lateral subsurface drainage to stream channels (Figure 2).

Hall et al..0. 1997. 1998. Foley et al. Expansions of shrub tundra into regions now occupied by sedge tundra... with deciduous stands and boreal non-forested wetlands having approximately twice the albedo of conifer forests (Chapin et al. with warming effects that extend into the . 2001). Tundra and boreal forest differ from more southerly biomes in having a long period of snow cover. which plays an important role in the fire regime of the boreal forest as a source of ignition.. 1997. Thomas and Rowntree. Chapin et al. which may further lengthen the growing season. and of boreal forest into regions now occupied by tundra. 2000a. 3 Consequences of Land Cover Change for the Climate System 3. heat that can be sensed) in conifer stands that are 2 to 3 times those of deciduous stands.6 . Chambers et al.5 to 1. In contrast.e.. Because there are substantial seasonal and spatial differences in sensible and latent energy exchange in the boreal forest.8) is much higher than winter albedo of boreal forest stands. 2000a). 2003).11 (conifer stands) and 0. Positive feedbacks associated with climate warming may result from lengthening of the growing season.. and from the replacement of tundra with boreal forest. when white surfaces might be expected to reflect incoming radiation (high albedo) and therefore absorb less energy for transfer to the atmosphere. where surface evaporation from mosses can account for up to half of total evaporation (Baldocchi et al. 2000. Hall et al. McFadden et al.148 MCGUIRE ET AL. Chapin et al. albedo of boreal vegetation is lower than in winter. 1994. evapotranspiration) of deciduous forest stands in the boreal forest are 1. whereas the latent energy fluxes (i.g. During summer. the energy exchange properties of the land surface have a strong direct influence on climate.e.. which varies between 0.. 2000a. A longer growing season that leads to earlier snowmelt and later snow cover effectively reduces annual albedo and should lead to substantial heating of the atmosphere. deciduous forests).21 (deciduous stands) (Betts and Ball. evaporation plays a more important role than transpiration in the latent energy exchange of forest stands with low productivity (e. 1999.1 RADIATIVE FEEDBACKS TO THE CLIMATE SYSTEM Because most of the energy that heats Earth's atmosphere is first absorbed by the Earth's surface before being transferred to the atmosphere. 1992. 1992. because short-statured tundra is snow covered while snow in boreal forest stands is substantially masked because of the canopy overstory of trees. The incorporation of better estimates of winter albedo for boreal forest stands into climate models led to substantial improvements in mediumrange weather forecasting and in climate re-analyses (Viterbo and Betts. black spruce forests). 2003).... Because transpiration is tightly linked to photosynthesis. climate warming has the potential to affect regional climate by altering both positive and negative feedbacks.. would reduce growing season albedo and increase spring energy absorption and may enhance atmospheric warming (Bonan et al. 2000b). Regional modeling studies focused on Alaska have shown that the expansion of shrub tundra at the expense of sedge tundra may result in substantially warmer summers over tundra. The substantial sensible heating over conifer stands leads to thermal convection and may contribute to the frequency of thunderstorms and lightning (Dissing and Verbyla... 2000). Sellers et al. 1999).8 times greater than those of conifer forest stands (Baldocchi et al.. This difference in albedo leads to fluxes of sensible heat (i. However. from tundra that becomes more shrubby. winter albedo of tundra (0..g. latent heat exchange tends to be dominated by transpiration in boreal forest stands with high productivity (e.

Foley et al. Much of the soil carbon is highly labile and has accumulated simply because of cold and/or anaerobic soils conditions (Neff and Hooper. 2000. 2003a). These forests have a lower albedo and greater sensible heat fluxes than the tundra they have replaced. 2000)..14) than do conifer stands (0. Another positive feedback is associated with expansion of the boreal forest into regions now occupied by tundra. a response that could possibly accelerate the replacement of tundra by boreal forest (Bonan et al. Thomas and Rowntree.. 2000a. Beringer et al. Chapin et al. 1997.. with effects extending to the tropics (Bonan et al. Studies conducted with general circulation models indicate that the position of northern treeline has a substantial influence on global climate. 2000b). Stocks et al. 1991... 2000a. While these modeling studies clearly highlight that vegetation change in tundra has the potential to influence climate. 1998. Recent high-latitude warming could trigger the release of this carbon that has accumulated over millennia. Land-cover changes from wildfire have the potential to influence energy exchange between the surface of boreal forests and the atmosphere. 1992.. Chapin et al. 2002).. 3. Thus.. In contrast to the positive feedback to climate warming caused by forest expansion into tundra. .. At Alaska's latitudinal treeline on the Seward Peninsula.. Weintraub and Schimel.. An increase in fire frequency for the boreal forest of Canada and Alaska is likely if climate continues to warm (Flannigan and Van Wagner. 2003). McGuire et al. Flannigan et al. Clein et al.. Flannigan and Wotton. the magnitude and extent of impacts on climate will depend on the temporal and spatial patterns of land cover change in the circumpolar Arctic. Boreal forests contain approximately 27% of the world's vegetation carbon inventory and 28% of the world's soil carbon inventory (McGuire et al. spruce trees have established progressively farther from the forest limit since the 1880s and have infilled within existing stands (Lloyd et al. 2003. This has led to a conversion of shrub tundra into low-density forest-tundra within a band extending approximately 10 km from the original forest limit. 1999. 2003).LAND COVER DISTURBANCES AND CLIMATE 149 boreal forest of Alaska (Lynch et al. Fire in boreal forests of Canada and Alaska often leads to post-fire deciduous stands that last for approximately fifty years before being successionally replaced by conifer stands.09) which they replace and therefore transfer less energy to the atmosphere (Chambers et al. 2001.2 TRACE GAS FEEDBACKS TO THE CLIMATE SYSTEM Important trace-gas feedbacks to climate of the Canada and Alaska region include feedbacks associated with the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) with the atmosphere (Roulet. Changes in these fluxes could either enhance warming (positive feedbacks) or mitigate warming (negative feedbacks) (Smith and Shugart.. 2001). 1995. 1992. This would decrease albedo in both summer and winter and should cause substantial heating of the atmosphere.. 2000b. causing a net warming effect on the atmosphere (Beringer et al... McFadden et al. 1998. 2003). 2003). any increase in fire frequency caused by boreal warming could lead to negative feedback to warming if fire increases the proportion of deciduous stands on the landscape. McGuire and Hobbie. Chapin et al. 1994). the degree to which the response of vegetation dynamics to climate warming influences regional climate depends on the interaction of factors that may both enhance and mitigate warming.. Post-fire deciduous stands have a higher albedo (0. 1993. 1997).

is tightly coupled to the thawing of the soil in conifer stands. 2002. 2002. 2000)..150 MCGUIRE ET AL. 1996).. which is also sensitive to the timing of snowmelt. 2001. The changing length of the growing season in Canada and Alaska may have important effects on production and carbon storage (Frolking et al. soil carbon storage will increase if the transfer of carbon from vegetation to the soil is greater than the enhancement in decomposition from warming. In the boreal forest the start of the growing season. 2000. If this condition occurs. 1999. Conard et al... it has only recently been elucidated that fire in the boreal forest region as a whole has enough inter-annual variability that it may play a role in the inter-annual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 . then the long-term rate of soil carbon storage depends on whether the carbon that is transferred to the soil decomposes quickly or slowly (Clein et al. 1999. 2001). In temperate forests. Kasischke et al... Although the warming of aerobic soils will tend to increase the release of CO2 from soils of Canada and Alaska. 2000. annual carbon storage is enhanced by approximately 6 g C m-2 for every day that the growing season is lengthened (Baldocchi et al. the net effect of warming depends on the balance between production and decomposition. suggesting that longer growing seasons in boreal forest should also enhance terrestrial carbon storage (see also Frolking et al. as defined by photosynthetic activity of the canopy.. 2003). Figure 3. Cumulative changes in carbon stocks for Alaska from 1950 – 1995. While fire activity is highly variable from year to year in specific regions of the boreal forest (Kurz and Apps. Amiro et al. 2000). Deciduous stands begin net carbon uptake following leafout.. Zhuang et al.. 2003).. Hobbie et al. because frozen soil prevents transpiration (Frolking et al.. 1996). In situations where warming does enhance production of boreal forests. Stocks et al. Our understanding of soil carbon and nitrogen transformations in response to warming is incomplete and is a key gap that limits our ability to make projections of the long-term response of soil carbon to warming (Clein et al..

For example. during which production is less than decomposition. respectively. 1995. To understand how variability in regional scale fire activity influences carbon storage of the atmosphere. which might account for 10-20% of the area burned in western Canada (Turetsky et al. 1996. 1997. 2002). 2003a). the replacement of tundra with boreal forest is likely to result in a net uptake of carbon from the atmosphere. both insect disturbance and fire have likely released substantial amounts of carbon into the atmosphere from Canada’s forests in the latter part of the 20th Century (Kurz and Apps. 2001).. the level of fuel consumption is an important factor in carbon dynamics of the North American boreal forest (Harden et al. Roulet. The burning of peatlands in Russia may have contributed to the large atmospheric carbon monoxide anomaly that was observed in 1998 (Kasischke and Bruhwiler. it is useful to examine the effects of fire on carbon storage at both the stand. 2002). but the consequences of these disturbances on regional carbon dynamics is less clear. 1992a. 1992b. Amiro et al. Zhuang et al. Lloyd et al.. Although soil and lake drainage may be especially vulnerable to the response of permafrost to climatic warming. 2000.. Equilibrium modeling studies suggest that the replacement of arctic tundra with boreal forest in Canada and Alaska has great potential to substantially increase vegetation carbon storage (gains of 14 to 18 Pg C among scenarios in McGuire and Hobbie. followed by a period of ecosystem carbon gain once production exceeds decomposition (Kasischke et al. Chen et al. 2000). 1997). the release of CO2 from aerobic decomposition is likely to be enhanced if . Together. A large uncertainty in the loss of carbon in fire emissions of the North American boreal forest is the contribution from fire in forested peatlands.. If regional disturbance regimes are at steady state for a substantial period of time. Stand-level disturbances like fire are generally characterized by a period of ecosystem carbon loss. whereas soil carbon is likely to be less affected (loss of 1 Pg C to gain of 3 Pg C among scenarios in McGuire and Hobbie. 2002). A major challenge is documenting the consequences of these disturbances for ecosystem processes and successional change through the cycle of disturbance and subsequent forest regrowth.. whereas the transition of boreal forest to grassland is likely to result in a net release of carbon to the atmosphere. 1997). see also Langenfelds et al. ecosystem carbon storage will not change because areas of carbon loss are balanced by areas of carbon gain. Chapin and Starfield. 1999...and regional levels. in carbon from terrestrial ecosystem to the atmosphere (Figure 3). For example. Soil carbon was relatively insensitive in the transition from tundra to boreal forest in these simulations because increases in production were offset by increased rates of decomposition associated with increased soil temperature. 2003.. Whether changes in the distribution of vegetation result in carbon storage or loss largely depends on the type of transition (McGuire and Hobbie. However. and because the response of drainage is likely to affect the release of CO2 and CH4 in opposite directions (Roulet et al.LAND COVER DISTURBANCES AND CLIMATE 151 (Langenfelds et al. an increase or decrease in disturbance frequency will generally cause losses or gains.. the net effect on radiative forcing of the atmosphere is not clear because drainage can either be enhanced or retarded by permafrost degradation. 2002). Thus. This potential increase in ecosystem carbon storage by replacing tundra with boreal forest is likely to proceed at a very slow pace because the migration of boreal forests into tundra is likely to take several centuries (Starfield and Chapin. Insect disturbance and forest harvest also result in carbon loss to the atmosphere. 1997). 2000). An additional loss of carbon may occur if stands are salvage logged after fire..

1995. In eastern Canada peatlands. where runoff has increased sharply in the spring. 1992b.. this increase has occurred primarily in the cold season (Serreze et al. changes in evapotranspiration associated with permafrost and vegetation dynamics have consequences for river runoff that depend additionally on changes in precipitation inputs to terrestrial ecosystems. 1976.. vegetation dynamics. The Arctic Ocean receives fresh water inputs from four of the fourteen largest river systems on earth (Forman et al. Serreze et al.. Roulet.. 2000. increased winter precipitation. permafrost warming results in a drop of the water table (Oechel et al.152 MCGUIRE ET AL. Changes in fresh-water inputs to the Arctic Ocean could alter salinity and sea ice formation.. 1992. While the mechanisms responsible for this pattern are not completely clear. but has increased for the year as a whole. 1998). Christensen et al. The pattern is most pronounced in the Yenisey.. freshwater on the Arctic continental shelf more readily forms sea ice in comparison to more saline water (Forman et al. and strong summer drying. 2000). the enhanced CH4 emissions associated with the creation of wetlands will likely result in a positive feedback to warming for up to 500 years until the enhanced storage of carbon in the wetlands (i. 2003)... The responses of freshwater inputs to the Arctic Ocean depend on changes in the amount and timing of precipitation. Also. 1997) with an associated reduction in CO2 emissions. and disturbance regimes to global change. The boreal forest plays a significant role in the hydrology of the circumpolar north because it dominates the land-mass that contributes to the delivery of freshwater to the Arctic Ocean. uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere) offsets the enhanced radiative forcing associated with CH4 emissions (Roulet.3 FRESHWATER DELIVERY TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN The delivery of freshwater from the pan-arctic land mass is of special importance because the Arctic Ocean contains only about 1% of the world’s ocean water.. but emissions of CH4 are likely to decrease because methanogenesis is an anaerobic process (Roulet et al. 1989.. Broecker. In contrast.. Fire disturbance is a factor that can accelerate the melting of permafrost (Zhuang et al. the Arctic Ocean is the most river-influenced and land-locked of all oceans and is the only ocean with a contributing land area greater than its surface area (Ivanov. . It is possible that the changes in runoff patterns for the Yenisey and Lena are associated with changes in active layer thickness and the thawing of permafrost (Romanovsky et al. then releases of CH4 are likely to be enhanced (Reeburgh and Whalen. which may have consequences for the global climate system by affecting the strength of the North Atlantic Deep Water Formation (Aagaard and Carmack. 2000). Additionally. Freshwater inflow contributes as much as 10% to the upper 100 meters of the water column for the entire Arctic Ocean (Barry and Serreze. 2000). the patterns are linked to higher air temperatures.e. if permafrost melting results in the expansion of lakes and wetlands. and may play a role in changes of runoff. 2002. 2002). 1997)... Zimov et al. Modeling studies suggest that maintenance of the thermohaline circulation is sensitive to fresh-water inputs to the North Atlantic (Manabe and Stouffer.. yet receives about 11% of world river runoff (Forman et al. 2003). 2003). 3.. 2000). 1992a. Over the past 70 years there has been a 7% increase in the delivery of freshwater from the major Russian rivers to the Arctic Ocean (Peterson et al. 2000).. 2000). For example. In the Yenisey and Lena Rivers. Serreze et al. Vörösmarty et al. 1995). Shiklomanov et al. decreased in the summer. and the responses of permafrost dynamics. 2000). 2000.

A major challenge will be to understand the role of land cover change in the increased runoff of major Russian Rivers. these updates are primarily derived from post-fire surveys of the perimeter of the burn scars. While data sets on the timing and extent of fire are operationally updated in the region. The synthesis of observations on land cover change in Canada and Alaska has allowed us to estimate some of the consequences of these changes over the last century. While we have ground-based data indicating that tree line is changing in both Canada and Alaska. Inventory and process-based approaches disagree as to whether the region has been a small source or .. and changes in croplands primarily comes from agency-based statistics. While there have certainly been carbon losses associated with an increase in fire. 2001). While operational remote sensing of these disturbances is not currently a reality.e. Isaev et al.. In contrast to fire. Remote sensing has contributed substantially to our understanding of changes in the length of the growing season in Canada and Alaska. Satellite remote sensing could substantially improve these data sets in two ways.. burn severity (i.LAND COVER DISTURBANCES AND CLIMATE 153 Although runoff has not been observed to increase in arctic and subarctic North American rivers like the Mackenzie and Yukon Rivers. and remote sensing case studies have informed us that the structure of tundra vegetation and the area of surface waters are changing in Alaska. 2000. biomass consumption) is important for understanding the impacts of fire on changes in carbon storage. the development of this capability has the potential to provide data sets that would allow a more comprehensive understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns and controls of these disturbances. forest harvest.. and satellite-based monitoring is not being used for this purpose (see Chapter 19). many of which are at state and provincial levels. and forest harvest in the last half of the 20th Century. which drain warming permafrost areas that have experienced increased fire frequency in recent decades. the area encompassed by the burn scar perimeter may result in an overestimate of the area burned if unburned inclusions are not taken into account. our understanding of other disturbance regimes such as insect disturbance. These mechanisms include climate warming. insect. and whether runoff of major North American rivers that drain into the Arctic Ocean is or is not changing. and increases in atmospheric CO2. the detection of these changes with satellite imagery remains a substantial technical challenge for the remote sensing community (Masek. there are uncertainties about how these compare to mechanisms that might increase carbon storage. Second. First. nitrogen deposition. The history of fire since the middle of the 20th Century has been synthesized into spatial data sets that are useful for understanding the temporal and spatial patterns and controls of fire in Canada and Alaska. 4 Future Challenges The quality of observations of land cover change in Canada and Alaska are in many ways very good in comparison to other high latitude areas. the ability to detect a trend for increased runoff may be limited by the shorter length of runoff records for these rivers (Peterson et al. Satellite remote sensing could contribute substantially to providing spatial information on burn severity (Michalek et al. Satellite remote sensing could contribute substantially by estimating the area of these inclusions. 2002). 2002). particularly the impacts on carbon storage of the region. particularly in soils.

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sink for atmospheric CO2 of around 0.1 Pg C per year in recent decades (Kurz and Apps, 1999; Chen et al., 2000; Yarie and Billings, 2002). An alternative to these approaches is the atmospheric inversion approach, which estimates the timing and location of sources and sinks based on measurements of atmospheric CO2 at around 100 stations around the globe. Only in the last few years have inversion techniques become advanced enough to evaluate carbon fluxes over subcontinental regions and to estimate inter-annual variability in these fluxes. While some atmospheric inversions suggest that the region was a sink of 0.2 to 0.4 Pg C per year during the 1980s, Gurney et al. (2002) in an analysis that used 16 different transport models suggests that the North American boreal region was a source of approximately 0.2 Pg C per year between 1992 and 1996. More recently, Rodenbeck et al. (2003) performed an inversion covering the period 1983 to 1997, and, consistent with Rayner et al. (1999), Dargaville et al., (2002a) and Gurney et al. (2002), estimated a sink of increasing strength during the 1980s and into the early 1990s, which peaked around 1993 and then rapidly changed to being a source during the mid-to-late 1990's. Thus, analyses based on atmospheric inversions suggest that carbon exchange of the North America boreal forest is very dynamic.
Figure 4. Cumulative changes in carbon stocks for Canada from 1950 – 1995.

Simulation models that consider changes in atmospheric CO2, climate, and fire suggest that responses to atmospheric CO2 and climate in the region might more than compensate for carbon losses associated with land-cover change (Figure 4). However, such an analysis for the region is incomplete because it does not consider all the factors that might influence carbon storage. There are substantial uncertainties in estimating regional changes in carbon storage with both process-based and inversion approaches (McGuire et al., 2001; Prentice et al., 2001; Schimel et al., 2001; Dargaville et al., 2002a, 2002b; Gurney et al., 2002). Better information on the timing, extent, and severity of disturbance would decrease uncertainties in process-based approaches that require disturbance information to properly assess the effects of land cover change on carbon storage in the region. Better information on the timing, extent, and severity of disturbance and landcover changes is important for better understanding controls over land cover change in

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Canada and Alaska and for building a capability to predict future changes in land cover in the region. This capability is important to develop because the region represents about 10% of the vegetated cover of the earth and changes in land cover could have substantial impacts that influence the climate system through radiative, trace gas, and Arctic Ocean freshwater feedbacks to the climate system. There is substantial evidence that changes in land cover over the last century are associated with both climate change and human influences. Preliminary analyses indicate that climate change and human activity have the potential to interact in ways that may have substantial influences in the regional and global forest sectors in the future (Perez-Garcia et al., 2002). Progress in representing how both climate change and humans influence the land cover of Canada and Alaska in predictive analyses of global change poses a major ongoing challenge. It is clear that continued development of data sets on land cover change will substantially contribute to this capability.

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CHAPTER 10 MAPPING DESERTIFICATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA STEPHEN D. PRINCE Geography Department, University of Maryland, Room 2181 LeFrak Hall, College Park, MD 20742-8225 USA

1 Introduction Land degradation over vast areas in tropical semi-arid regions, as a result of persistent drought and inappropriate land management, was brought to international public attention in the early 1980s following two catastrophic droughts in the African Sahel within a 10 year period. It was ultimately concluded that an interaction between climate and human land use was occurring at a sub-continental scale and that new techniques were needed to monitor and explain these processes. Similar situations have been recognized throughout the world, some in quite different climates (e.g., Mabbutt and Floret, 1980). While there has been significant progress in the study of the landatmosphere interactions involved in desertification (Xue and Fennessy, 2002), studies of the ecological components of the process of desertification have mainly been at the local scale related to, for example, wind, gully and sheet erosion, bush encroachment, and salinization. The land surface processes of desertification also operate over large areas and long time scales (Prince 2002), and these have not received much attention. This is mainly because of the difficulty in obtaining appropriate data, although unfamiliarity with these time and space scales may also have contributed to the lack of progress. Studies of the anthropogenic component of desertification have largely assumed the biophysical nature of desertification, and have dealt with socioeconomic (Vogel and Smith, 2002), governmental and political perspectives (Chasek and Corell, 2002) assuming that desertified areas have the same properties as arid ecosystems. Following a discussion of the significance of time and space scales in the definition of desertification, this chapter explores the potential of remote sensing of annual primary production to detect desertification. The concept of reduction in mean, interannual, potential production is applied to the country of Zimbabwe, which has several features that make it suitable for the assessment of the extent of actual desertification as defined here. Finally the results are discussed in the context of global monitoring of desertification. 2 The Nature of Desertification Certain processes, distinct from drought and operating over periods of more than a single year, may be occurring in degraded, semi arid lands. These processes are hard to detect owing to the extreme inter-annual and spatial fluctuations in the environment of regions subject to drought and over-utilization (Lebel, Taupin et al., 1997). Degradation of the type that led to the international concern in the 1980s occurs in a diffuse pattern over very large areas. Within these areas some or all of the well-known processes of
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equally important yet less well-publicized body of theory has emerged in terrestrial plant community ecology and rangeland management. Walker. Thomas et al. 1997) is based on the Global Assessment of Soil Degradation (GLASOD).. 1997). 1997. 2002). 2002.. but these require further study. GLASOD was methodologically qualitative. 1994) in a “structured informed opinion analysis” adopted from (Dregne . While there is a case for treating desertification as a distinct phenomenon. Thomas et al. based on opinions of a large number of regional soil degradation experts (Thomas and Middleton. renamed the UNDP Office to Combat Desertification and Drought in 1994) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). bush encroachment and salinization may be found in different intensities. different from the well-known. The characteristic time and length scales of these processes were tentatively set at 20-50yr and 50-100km. 2000.164 PRINCE erosion. but the lack of any readily measured. Prince (2002) has suggested that the term desertification be reserved for processes distinct from those responsible for local and short-term degradation. most governments have attempted to sedentarize these populations thus changing land use of entire regions. Abel et al. over the past 50 years. Various attempts have been made to inventory desertification in order to assess the magnitude of the problem and to provide a baseline for monitoring (e. that of multiple stable or semi-stable states. The spatial scale of the ecological changes that characterize desertification might arise from several processes. For example. 1990. However. Another. 1990). suitable tools to measure and explore any process that occurs at multi-year and large area scales are not yet widely available.. short-term effects of drought and local scale land degradation.. nomadic and transhumant societies have often arisen that exploit the large regional and temporal variability in rainfall.g. Clearly the implications for management of a system that will not return to its former productivity once rain returns or utilization is reduced are very different from those of one that will. Oldeman. undertaken by the International Soil Reference Center (ISRIC) (Oldeman et al. GLASOD was not developed specifically for desertification studies. Moloney et al. in semi arid regions. Middleton. the transport of materials by wind and water. 3 Existing Assessments of Soil Degradation The current World Atlas of Desertification (Middleton. Hakkeling et al... Jackson and Bartolome. but to map human-induced soil degradation in all environments and it included an assessment of the human activities responsible for degradation. The need for mapping of desertification has been evident at least since the 1974 drought in the Sahel and the subsequent 1977 United Nations Conference on Desertification (UNCOD). often >106 ha. Mabbutt and Floret. This concept suggests that less productive land conditions might become established that are very difficult to reverse (Weber. Regional processes in addition to local causes seem to be operating and regional mechanisms therefore need to be identified. and the areas over which human utilization acts as a result of the socio-economic systems and government policies in these regions. objective indicators of actual degradation applicable at a regional scale has inhibited progress. 1980. CSIR 1999).. organized by the United Nations Sahelian Office (UNSO. These mechanisms might include the mesoscale climate systems that lead to persistent drought (Le Barbe and Lebel.

and human causes (Thomas and Middleton. which may or may not be present. “the spread of desert-like conditions of low biological productivity due to human impact under climate variations” (Reynolds 2001). Many maps of desertification have been prepared for individual countries and smaller areas but. In addition. moderate. A matrix combining the degree and extent of degradation was then used to give the overall severity for a given mapping unit. the degree of soil degradation caused by these four processes was classified as either light.000. though in reality it is a quantification of qualitative assessments. The soil and pedoclimate information was used to place each map unit into one of nine land quality classes. 2000) in the Republic of South Africa. a similar approach to GLASOD has been pursued by (Hoffman and Todd. the nature of the data used does not allow changes in land condition to be detected. desertification and is another type of expert interpretation. Rhodes 1991). not actual. The emphasis on the human perception of degradation in these studies is their strength. but at a finer scale. An assessment of vulnerability to desertification was then made using the procedure of (Eswaran and Reich. which severely limits the value of the techniques for monitoring. a list of 24 land stresses that constrain grain production was developed. However. 4 Measurement of Desertification by Reduction in Primary Production Quantitative measurement of desertification has been an elusive goal. the accumulation of biomass through time.000. 1990. strong. physical deterioration. Central to the definition of desertification adopted by the UN is the concept of reduced productive potential of the land (UNCOD 1977) and the role of the carbon cycle. hence it is not appropriate for monitoring. In Zimbabwe erosion features were mapped by (Whitlow 1988). . that is.000 (interpretable to approximately 0. a climate database with records for about 25. water erosion. e.MAPPING DESERTIFICATION 165 1989).5º). wind erosion.000 stations globally was used to obtain soil moisture and temperature regimes. 1994).000. 2003) have mapped global vulnerability to desertification using the FAO/UNESCO Soil Map of the World (FAO 1992) at a scale of 1:5. GLASOD is only usable for areas >1ºx1º. which limits mapping using variables that have an explicit relationship with the processes of interest (Prince. these have limited use for comparison between regions. extreme. extent and degree.. The map shows vulnerability to. For example. Five categories related the extent of the degradation from infrequent to dominant. Justice et al. Reich et al. On this foundation it is hypothesized that desertification reduces NPP below the undesertified state. The maps show degradation type. Other changes in the carbon cycle follow from this primary effect. At a scale of 1:15. or no degradation. depending on the exact nature of the desertification. The map appears to be a quantitative assessment of desertification. The aspect of productivity most relevant to desertification is net primary production (NPP). with no agreement on the criteria for the designation of desertification. (Eswaran.. For each mapping unit. such as reduced biomass and soil carbon. and chemical deterioration of the land. To facilitate placement into these classes.. partly because of the uncertain definition of desertification.g. in most cases. 1998). whose units were converted to taxa of soil taxonomy. The assessments were made using a pre-defined set of criteria for each of the four main degradation processes.

1 RAIN USE EFFICIENCY (RUE) Rain Use Efficiency (RUE) is the ratio of NPP to rainfall (Prince. Brown de Colstoun et al. non-desertified land provide an indicator of desertification. independent of the rainfall. Thus NPP alone is not adequate to measure desertification. Noy-Meir 1985). The technique is not limited to the drier parts of the world where potential NPP is well correlated with rainfall. This method takes into account soils. Techniques for measurement of NPP using satellite data were first developed in the mid 1980s (Prince and Justice. RUE is based on a simple concept that is confirmed in the many comparisons of NPP with rainfall (Le Houérou 1984. 4. and low RUE values provide a useful index of degradation. rather it is the productivity of the land relative to its undesertified state that is of interest. however it is only applicable where rainfall is the principal limiting factor of potential NPP which is only true in drier areas (<1000mm in the tropics). The index of desertification in this case is the difference between potential and actual NPP.. Brown de Colstoun et al. 1998). but also to the need to judge the state of the land relative to the potential supply of ecosystem goods and services under existing land uses. This potential NPP could be measured for limited regions in large. so PAN is a direct measure of the impact of desertification on productivity. Goward et al. and even in lower rainfall areas. 1988. . NPP has been shown to be directly related to rainfall in many studies in semi-arid regions (Lamotte and Bourlière. 1998). factors other than rainfall can determine local NPP. long-term field study sites. Brown de Colstoun et al. The premise is that reductions of the NPP below that of equivalent. 1998) discuss the use of soil moisture for this purpose. In higher rainfall areas this is not the case. It also has the advantage of being measured in units of NPP. but this is unlikely to be practical for countrywide applications (Pickup 1998). and soil moisture. where a comprehensive suite of conditions in addition to rainfall is used to estimate the potential NPP.. 2000)... Le Houérou 1989) hence rainfall may be used as a surrogate for potential production. 1998. Brown de Colstoun et al. Prince 2002). nutrients. based on monitoring the actual and potential NPP of the land.2 POTENTIAL-ACTUAL NPP (PAN) A second. Desertification has an important human dimension owing not just to the contribution of inappropriate land utilization in causing desertification. 1991) but it is only now that an archive has accumulated with a long enough record (20+yr) to allow desertification studies at appropriate time scales (Prince. Procedures for using satellite data to map desertification..166 PRINCE Various metrics of the interannual dynamics of regional scale NPP have been suggested as appropriate methods for measuring desertification (Prince. 1983. Thus the RUE ratio measures the actual production as a function of potential production. (Prince. more mechanistic technique using a biogeochemical model to estimate potential NPP has been developed (Prince 2002). Three approaches to measurement of desertification using reduced NPP have been proposed. have been developed (Prince. Remote measurement using satellite observations offers a more immediate solution. 4.

Several uncertainties exist. 4. 1997). for the PAN technique. Advances in remote sensing of rainfall are being made and it is anticipated that finer temporal and spatial resolution measurements may soon be available (Flaming 2002). PAN and LNS. A potential problem with RUE. 4. 1994) that it is in wet periods that desertification can best be detected.5 x 0. but the availability of rainfall data and. also by the coarse resolution of most available soil maps.MAPPING DESERTIFICATION 167 Both RUE and PAN are subject to the practical limitation on spatial resolution caused. however. and desertification to be detected relative to the maximum observed NPP. NPP is measured for entire growing seasons. such as commercial or communal land tenure. In fact cultural factors could be included. it is not clear whether the LNS technique will be able to estimate potential production. and this third approach is tested here. Long enough periods of time and large enough areas must be included to allow the natural lags in vegetation recovery from rainfall and other perturbations (Goward and Prince.3 LOCALLY SCALED NPP (LNS) To address the problem of sparse surface data. a scale that makes identification of local causal factors quite difficult. Local NPP Scaling (LNS). Taupin et al. Meteorological stations are sparsely distributed and local rainfall can be spatially highly variable in semi-arid regions (Lebel. lies in the non-equilibrium behavior of semi-arid lands. will highlight potentially desertified areas. where trends are masked by short-term temporal and spatial variation in rainfall (Pickup. Further studies are needed to establish the appropriate time period. 1995). for example.5 gridded rainfall data are used (the finest resolution practical at a global scale). such as inability to find undegraded land in a stratum or a potential production classification that wrongly includes some areas that have a higher potential NPP from another class. Bastin et al.. 1998). using multitemporal satellite observations. the spatial resolution of the desertification map is limited to >50km. below the potential set by the biogeophysical conditions. a third technique has been developed. It is hypothesized that reduced NPP. Thus. soil and land cover differences to be normalized. if 0. During wet periods reductions in NPP owing to desertification are separable from reductions that are caused simply by drought. . Other causes of differences in scaled NPP are also possible. individual observations of the vegetation do not capture the time component of carbon sequestration.4 TEMPORAL ASPECTS OF THE DETECTION OF DESERTIFICATION It has been noted by (Pickup and Chewings. in which the NPP of each pixel is expressed as a proportion of the maximum observed in all land falling into the same land type (Pickup 1996). Stratification by terrain type allows climate. not by the satellite data. Degraded land often supports brief flushes of ephemeral weeds that can make the identification of degradation difficult using a single satellite observation (Fabricius 2002).

4 – extreme) and y indicates percentage of mapping unit affected (1 . 2003) (Figure 1). which are rather too coarse. Suffices: a – agricultural activities.rapid rate of change. where x indicates degree of degradation (1 – light. as defined in Section 2.stable. g overgrazing. Wt . Fig. Letter symbols: Cs – salinization. f – deforestation and removal of the natural vegetation. 1990). Some regions of southern Africa seem to be in danger of desertification.. RISK Not mapped Low Moderate High Very high .loss of topsoil by water erosion. Apart from the GLASOD map (Oldeman. Ca – acidification..>50%). Hakkeling et al.1. Numeric symbols: x. 3 – strong. Katerere et al. 2 – 5-10%. Wd – terrain deformation/mass movement by water erosion.medium. a) Global Assessment of Soil Degradation (GLASOD) map (Oldeman et al. e overexploitation of vegetation for domestic use. 1992) and the existence of a comprehensive map of the extent of erosion (Whitlow 1988). . and the case of Zimbabwe is particularly interesting because of the strong contrasts in sustainability of land use practices (Gore. Et – loss of topsoil by wind erosion. a. .y. 3 – 10-25%. Extracts from existing global degradation and desertification maps for Zimbabwe and parts of surrounding countries. Pc – physical deterioration by compaction/crusting. SN . these data are hard to find. Based on an overlay of the NRCS global desertification map and a global population density map (Eswaran and Reich 2003).168 5 ZIMBABWE – A Case Study 5.<5%. 4 . b) Human Induced Desertification Risk map. Original colors converted to grayscale.1 INTRODUCTION PRINCE The validation of the techniques outlined in Section 4 requires independent data on desertification. mapped at a regional scale. b. 1990) and USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) Desertification Vulnerability map (Eswaran and Reich.. 2 – moderate.

. a) Fourth level administrative units and land use. the rising price of food caused by the loss of commercial production. leaving black peasants with marginal “tribal reserves” (Roder 1964. the chronic unsustainability of production on the land they occupy. The government of Zimbabwe has recently begun to address the land issue by means of a so-called “fast track” land redistribution program (Moyo. a severe drought in the 2001/2 wet season reduced rain-fed production (USAID 2003). FEWS 1996) and population distribution in Zimbabwe.MAPPING DESERTIFICATION 169 a. This policy has thrown the country into a state of ferment (Bush and Szeftel. Zimbabwe (FEWS/ARD 1996). pushed up the price of staple foods and exacerbated inflation. On top of this. Communal land residents are subject to at least three sources of vulnerability. now known as commercial land. 2000. Maps of land allocation (administrative units. Human Rights Watch 2002). white Rhodesians took control of the vast majority of good agricultural land. a large agriculture and livestock industry has been developed on the better land.. Although much of the public attention has concentrated on illegal land occupations of the commercial lands and the democratic crisis. Chattopadhyay 2000). Administrative units Communal Resettlement Large scale commercial farms Small scale commercial farms National parks. both within indigenous black communities and especially between white settlers and the black rural communities. Until 2002 Zimbabwe’s commercial sector was sufficiently productive to be the principal source of grain for . safari. Moyo. 1991). Land has been a source of political conflict in Zimbabwe since colonization. b. city Population density (people km-2) >120 15-120 5-15 <5 Fig. Rutherford et al. which has reduced commercial production. while the rural indigenous population is confined to so-called communal lands (Figure 2). Robinson et al. Note the correspondence of the high population and communal areas. the vulnerability of the large population of the degraded communal lands is the most serious humanitarian issue. Over the years. 2000. and the drought. Under British colonial rule and under the white minority government that unilaterally declared its independence from Britain in 1965. 2. b) Zimbabwe rural population density 1982 (Davies and Wheeler 1984). forests Town.

IV and V). The survey used aerial photography flown mainly between 1981 and 1984. over utilization has occurred even on better lands in communal areas (Prince. economic. Kay 1975). Hamilton 1965... whereas rates of soil erosion are very much greater. The only areas where negligible soil erosion was observed in the early 1980s were national parks and wildlife areas. land tenure systems in the communal lands are not conducive to small-scale commercial production even if markets were accessible. Some of the degradation seems to date back to the civil war period in the 1960's. when conservation efforts were neglected due to security problems.. Rutherford et al. soil type and increases in population density (Zinyama 1988). 400 kg ha-1yr-1). Thus the role of land use practices in degradation is hard to separate from the inherent properties of the land.g. the early 1980s were a significant turning point in the political history of Zimbabwe. moreover. Stone and Dalal-Clayton. social. Whitlow and Zinyama. In some areas the cultivation of maize may cease to be possible as soils become too shallow for crop growth. Historically the transportation infrastructure was developed to serve the commercial lands and bypasses most communal land. Katerere et al. These rates are averages and more recent observations indicate that they may need revision (Environmental Software and Services 2002). Since it was created using a completely independent technique. The consequences of the erosion described by Whitlow are seen in general declines in crop yields. or in the general lands (Prince 2000).000 kg ha-1yr-1 respectively.. . Nevertheless. and environmental factors (Gore. A comprehensive baseline of degradation in the early 1980s is provided by a national erosion survey (Whitlow 1988. 2000.000 kg ha-1yr-1 (Whitlow 1988). 1988. 1992). the baseline provided by the Whitlow survey (Whitlow 1988) provides a valuable comparison with the maps of RPPP presented here. Lado 1999. 2002). The loss of commercial production in Zimbabwe has endangered food security of the entire region. more often than commercial land. Zinyama 1988.000 and 75. Reshef et al. This relationship is especially strong in the communal lands.170 PRINCE much of central southern Africa. and sorghum cultivation may subsequently be affected (Whitlow 1988).g. Zinyama and Whitlow. 1989). when land use began to change more rapidly. Rates of soil formation in the semi-arid tropics are very slow (e. in the poorer agro-ecological regions (regions III. Significant parts of the land area of Zimbabwe are seriously degraded and less productive than they need to be to support their current population (Moyo. Most of this degradation has occurred in the communal lands.. 1992). There is a direct and positive correlation between increases in the extent of eroded terrain. 1986. estimates for average soil losses on crop lands and grazing areas on commercial farms are 15. and seems to be getting worse. which are located.000 and 3. the equivalent average for communal lands were 50. The processes leading to land degradation in Zimbabwe involve the interaction of political. The condition of the land in the communal areas has caused concern for many years (e. where population pressures are greater and resource management practices weaker than they were in the intensive commercial farming areas before fasttrack land redistribution started. Whitlow 1988. Furthermore.

SPOT VEGETATION data are used here. As a result this case study is only able to address degradation that manifests itself over a period of four years. 0. extending back to 1985. improved from June 1999present EOSDIS present Starts Nov 2000- Not available Not available MODIS (1. The data have appropriate time and space resolutions but data are available for only four growing seasons. since areas that experience shorter term reductions in realized potential primary production may recover. repeat measurement frequency) SPOT HRV (20m. Satellite sensors suitable for estimation of net primary production in Zimbabwe.2. Nevertheless the patterns that emerge are quite stable. MODIS data are only available for a short period so far. 1-2 days) SPOT VEGETATION (1km.MAPPING DESERTIFICATION 5. soil moisture and humidity are available with the same 1km2 resolution. Prince et al. and the spectral radiances that the instrument measures are not suitable for modeling of primary production. unless alternate sources of surface temperature. Sensor name (instantaneous field of view. max. 1 day) AVHRR LAC/HRPT (1km. but the resulting volume of data are prohibitive. 4-9 days) AVHRR GAC (8km. Landsat and SPOT HRV data have even finer resolution. 1986). and the spatial grain of its land use make a resolution of 1km2 or finer desirable so that the impacts of variation in land potential and land use can be detected. The degradation that is detected will overestimate desertification. 26 days) Landsat TM/ETM+ (30m. 4-9 days) Starts Dec 2000 1998 March . The extent of the country. especially when the interest is in land surface dynamics extending over 20 years. an interval that does not qualify for the term desertification as defined in Section 2. moreover the temporal frequencies of data acquisition are not suited to the measurement of NPP (Prince and Tucker.1 Mapping degradation The satellite data available for estimation of NPP for Zimbabwe are shown in Table 1.present Not available Satellite Applications RSA 1985-present Centre.25km.5. 0. In preparation (Wessels. however these data are not publicly available at this time. 16 days) Available data archives Net Primary Production 1986-present Limited from 1982 to 1999.2 METHODS 171 5. 2003) 1981-2000 1981-2000 Pathfinder AVHRR Land (PAL) Table 1. The AVHRR GAC data have too coarse a resolution for an individual country study. AVHRR HRPT data have the longest archive. suggesting that the detected degradation is not ephemeral .

This method assumes that all pixels within a class have the same productive potential and that each class has some undegraded areas. these are precipitation (Figure 4a) and land cover (Figure 4b). The values of this index were mapped to create a realized percentage of potential productivity (RPPP) map. the NDVI sum values falling in each class were extracted and the 90th and 10th percentile NDVI sum values for each class calculated.172 PRINCE The seasonal sum of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used (Figure 3) as a surrogate for net primary production (NPP) (Prince 1991). Finally the three precipitation classes and seven land cover classes were intersected forming a map of 21 separate potential production classes (Figure 4c). Therefore a map was created of potential production classes by intersecting these two data layers.3. Mean potential vegetation productivity for Zimbabwe and bordering regions. the summed precipitation layer was partitioned into three classes using natural breaks in the range of values. Fig. light – low NDVI). for which maps are available at an adequate resolution. where 0 represents land completely degraded and 100 land at its potential primary production. More sophisticated modeling of NPP can be undertaken (Prince Goward 1995) but it was considered more important to estimate productivity at 1km2 resolution rather than use NPP for which the highest multi-year resolution is 64km2. The ten-day accumulated precipitation data were summed to create an annual precipitation map. . Using the potential production class map (Figure 4c). Summed SPOT VEGETATION NDVI. Summed NDVI is a reasonable approximation of NPP in grassland. cropland and sparse woodland. The urban and bare ground pixels were aggregated into a single class. The 10-day SPOT-VEGETATION NDVI composites were summed from May 1998 to Jan 2002. seem to account for most of the variability in productive potential in Zimbabwe. Next. Values 90th and 10th percentiles were assigned potential primary productivity indices of 100 and 0 respectively. May 1998-Jan 2002 (dark – high. The land cover classes were aggregated into seven classes. Two factors.

Fig. The high spatial resolution of the Landsat (30m) allowed land cover. Urban. Developed from the intersection of precipitation classes and land cover types. including sparsely vegetated areas. The potential NPP within each class is assumed to be the same. c). ten-day. b). 2000). July 1998-June 1999. Created for United States Agency for International Development by the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS 1999). Zimbabwe potential production class map.2.2 Validation The RPPP map was compared with independent maps of degraded areas.1 . Potential production classes. the RPPP map was compared with the National Land Degradation Survey of Zimbabwe (Whitlow 1988). Land Cover Woodland Wooded grassland Shrubland Grassland Cropland Bare. Each density of gray represents one of the 21 classes formed by intersecting 7 land cover classes and 3 precipitation ranges. a). Water c. The Whitlow study was based . DeFries et al. 4. First. Precipitation (mm) 265-387 388-510 511-633 634-756 757-878 879-1001 1002-1124 1125-1247 1248-1370 b. 0. Second.MAPPING DESERTIFICATION 173 a. Land cover map at 1km2 resolution developed from satellite data acquired 1991-1992 (Hansen. to be detected visually. 5. accumulated precipitation estimates. Summed precipitation for Zimbabwe. images of Landsat data were made for areas that had a wide range of RPPP values. The value of the potential NPP was obtained from the frequency distribution of actual NPP values (estimated using NDVI).

. in fact. Darker areas less degraded.3. Fourth level administrative boundaries included for interpretation.174 PRINCE on photography mainly in 1980. 5. Of the 9. 31% had a realized percentage of potential productivity value equal to 0. and 53% 15 (mean 20. Sustainability of land use or the lack of it is a medium-term phenomenon. mode 13.3 RESULTS 5. be a case of desertification.1 Realized percentage of potential production (RPPP) map The RPPP map (Figure 5) indicates severe degradation in large areas of Zimbabwe. approximately 20yr before the satellite data. 0-1% 2-9 10-18 19-27 28-46 47-55 56-64 65-74 75-83 84-92 >92 Fig. 4c). although some photographs were for as early as 1979 and others as late as 1984. thus correspondence of severely eroded areas in 1980 to low realized percentage of potential productivity in 2000 can be regarded both as a test of the skill of the approach and an indicator that the observed degradation may.565 pixels sampled. lighter areas more degraded. Based on local NDVI scaling (LNS) of SPOT VEGETATION NDVI data for May 1998-Jan 2002 and a potential production classification (Fig. Realized percentage of potential production (RPPP) for Zimbabwe. standard deviation 24). 5.

south east through Bulawayo to Rutenga (Masvingo). then north east to Chimanimani (Manicaland) and north through Mutare along the Mozambique border to the Inyanga highlands. south west to Lupane (Matabeleland North).375 209. with communal areas (Table 2). in a broad sweep across the north west of the country (see Figure 6 for place names) from Mhangura (Mashonaland West). and north east less good conditions prevail and lower values are found. Overall land in good condition.6. the Fig.424 Mean RPPP 39. occurs in a forward-leaning “U” shape. south.4% Tenure type Communal Commercial Number of 1km2 pixels 202. production class map (Figure 4c) Percent pixels with RPPP 35 53. Thus the overall countrywide pattern is one of an agricultural core with average realized percentage of potential productivity. relative to its potential. and outside that again. as is to be expected in cultivated lands. The “U” shape encloses the “highveld”. Some communal areas stand out as large areas of severe degradation. to the north. Political map of Zimbabwe showing Province names RPPP has taken this effect into and larger settlements referred to in the text. large scale commercial croplands which. The country-scale pattern is interrupted by land in striking contrast to the broad configuration outlined above. surrounded by land close to its potential production. indicating severe degradation. Outside the less degraded “U” shaped area. but the forgoing are the most obvious centers on a national scale. land which is much more degraded. Realized percentage of potential primary production (RPPP) statistics for communal and commercial land in Zimbabwe. Careful comparison of the RPPP with the population and land tenure maps of the country (Figure 2) indicates a remarkable association of low indices.6 59.MAPPING DESERTIFICATION 175 The map indicates some very clear patterns in the distribution of degradation.6% 27. an area centered on Mutoko (Mashonaland East).4 Table 2. Although communal areas are often located in land areas with intrinsically low potential.8 Median RPPP 32 58 Standard Deviation 36. . Other large areas in equally poor condition occur.3 36. Modified from account by using a potential CIA (2002). the most productive. These include the Save catchment in Manicaland. and in the north Midlands centered on Gokwe. northwest. have a lower realized percentage of potential productivity. along the Shashe river in Matabeleland South.

respectively. without the use of potential production classes and scaling. Bands 3. There is a trend of increasing productivity in Zimbabwe from the southwest to the northeast (Figure 3). 7. a. acquired Apr. b. The distinctive geometrical borders of the sparse vegetation.176 PRINCE and yet the severe degradation pattern remains. 2. WRS path 170 row 74. It is very clear at this fine scale that low RPPP values are associated with sparse vegetation and communal land tenure. The potential production class map is intended to remove this trend. suggest that low values of the RPPP are associated with land use. Fig. The dark area is large-scale commercial land and the lighter surrounding area. since the ecological potential of the SW region is lower than that of the NE due to the precipitation limitation. as might be expected if only productivity were used. often separated only by a fence line. Commercial farms with high RPPP are surrounded by extremely degraded communal lands. and is therefore probably not degraded. Consequently. and the RPPP identifies other areas as more degraded. this association of sparse vegetation and low RPPP provides circumstantial support for the validity of the map. 23rd 2000. which suggests that these communal lands are not degraded simply because they have low ecological potential.2 Validation of the realized percentage of potential production map Zimbabwe has innumerable examples of stark contrasts in land condition across political and administrative boundaries. 5). 5. The Landsat data with their 30m resolution illustrate qualitatively the condition of the land at a local scale. communal lands. Furthermore some communal land has a high RPPP. which persist even when viewed at high spatial resolution. This is not the case. Interestingly. b) The same part of the realized percentage of potential primary production map (for scale see Fig. 1. This is due to the increase in precipitation from the SW to NE of the country (Figure 4). While not proof of low sustainability.3. not all communal or commercial are identified as degraded or not degraded. a) Landsat 7 ETM+ high resolution images of Zvishavane (southern Midlands) showing areas of strongly contrasted primary productivity. An example of these contrasts is shown in Figure 7. The A9 road crosses the image from SW to NE. one might wrongly assume that the SW is more severely degraded than the NW region. .

5 . Those 0. along the Shashe. The National Land Degradation survey was based on the presence of erosion features on aerial photographs.5º grid cells that were in the unaffected or least affected Degradation Survey classes (1 & 2). .5º resolution and it shows the proportion of area affected by erosion in six classes. Proportion of area affected by erosion: 1 – negligible. Increase means the realized percentage of potential primary production indicated degradation increased. c. 1988). c) Differences between the map of realized percentage of potential primary production and National Land Degradation map. Grid cells having RFPP values outside the range of the mean±1 std dev for each Degradation Survey class (Figure 8b) were examined. 6 .1-16%. but different symptoms of the degradation. and around Gokwe all are found in both maps. 2 . 1988). While the two maps indicate related. unlike the 1km2 and percentage values in the RPPP map.1% (redrawn from Whitlow. Zimbabwe (Whitlow.1-12%.3 Indications of advancing degradation in Zimbabwe The Degradation Survey was at 0. 5. the RPPP was aggregated to 0.<4%.>16. while the RPPP map depends on the reduced productivity of the vegetation compared with its potential for each potential production class. 8. Comparison of degradation mapped using the realized percentage of potential primary production and the National Land Degradation Survey. a) National Land Degradation Survey. 4 – 8. To enable quantitative comparison of the two metrics.12. the degree of agreement increases confidence in the diagnosis of low sustainability in areas with low RPPP. Large increase Moderate increase Moderate decrease Large decrease Fig.5º resolution and the mean RPPP ±1 standard deviation associated with each class was calculated. Class 1 2 3 4 5 6 Realized percentage of potential production 200 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 National Land Degradation Survey Class b. b) Bar charts showing the realized percentages of potential primary production for each of the six erosion classes in the National Degradation map. Mean ± 1 and 2 standard deviations and outliers shown. decrease indicates recovery.3. The map of RPPP was compared with the National Land Degradation Survey (Figure 8).MAPPING DESERTIFICATION 177 a. around Mutoko. The concentration of high erosion proportions in the Save catchment.18%. 3 – 4.

which is most relevant. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The first two difference classes indicate degradation of cells designated not or least eroded in the Degradation Survey.g. 6 Discussion The Local NPP Scaling (LNS) remote sensing mapping technique focuses attention on the areas most likely to be degraded. Mtetengwe. Another question is whether the use of the highest observed productivity. . Because of the applied nature of the definition of desertification that is adopted here. or there has been a serious extension of degradation in the 20 years between the two surveys. Agricultural planners have a long tradition of land evaluation by capability classes (McRae and Burnham. 1981. 1997) and it is the productivity of these classes. Reduced productivity highlights potentially degraded areas. The comparison of the realized percentage of potential production metric with Landsat and the National Land Degradation Survey in Zimbabwe presented above supports this hypothesis. If this capability can be established. were degraded) in 2000 (Figure 8c). southern Diti. Beyond the differences between the National Land Degradation Survey and the RPPP maps that are simply a result of the different surface properties that they represent. Thus. Siabuwa and Manjolo communal areas in Binga District.e. the appropriate measure of potential productivity is not that of pristine (sometimes called potential) land cover. there are clearly areas that were very little affected by erosion in 1980. either these areas have low RPPP with little erosion. can estimate the potential productivity. not the productivity of the land before conversion. as would occur in the absence of human management. Dendele and Masera communal areas in Matabeleland South. The evidence in support of this second proposition is indirect at this time.. and the second two classes recovery of the most or next to most eroded classes (Figure 8c). in the absence of degradation.178 PRINCE but which had an RFPP <(mean-1 std dev) were identified. and thereby highlight areas of desertification. Machuchta. Further confirmation is needed since other factors may reduce or increase productivity (e.. Matabeleland North. the accumulating archives of global remote sensing data may enable the extent and intensity of desertification to be mapped on a grid with a resolution as fine as 1km2. Similarly the two most eroded Degradation Survey classes (5 & 6) were identified by selecting cells that had an RFPP >(mean+1 std dev). deliberate removal of vegetation. Centenary and Mount Darwin Districts in Mashonaland Central. in the case of Zimbabwe over a 4yr period. irrigation and water sources other than local rainfall). A direct test will require comparison with independent measurements of potential production. These include Matibi and Sangwe communal areas in Chiredzi District. A key question regarding the LNS technique is whether it can identify areas where existing maximum productivity is below its productive potential. cleared land used for pasture or cropping should be considered relative to its potential productivity of goods and services. based on the observation that the location and degree of estimated degradation in Zimbabwe agreed with that identified by independent sources. which can then be examined further to confirm the diagnosis. Masvingo. Field reports and comparisons with Landsat data indicate there has been an advance of degradation since the 1980s. but that had very low RPPP values (i. Rather. Dibilishaba.

Second. This consideration is one reason why the term desertification has fallen into disrepute. There seems to be no point in recognizing this phenomenon with a new term such as “desertification”. The significance of scale is that it enables state variables and explanatory processes to be differentiated. Monitoring degradation and desertification requires the longest possible time series of data. so a constraint. It is proposed. the landscape. The exact bounds are less important. is not confused with the areal extent of interannual variability in rainfall. or quasistable states that do not quickly revert to the former state when the proximate causes are removed. Four such circumstances have been proposed (Prince 2002) that can be explored using the case study presented here. improved biogeophysical conditions may not alleviate the desertified condition of the land. less-productive states. Plans are developing to replace the AVHRR with the VIIRS instrument on NPOES. that there may be circumstances when a distinctive term is appropriate. when land is not destocked in periods of drought. 1986). but also of the inertia and slow reaction. First. or some combination of these or other processes. climate. land cover and cultural features. such as land tenure at appropriate scales. Currently the AVHRR sensor on the NOAA series of meteorological satellites provides a data record starting in 1981 and the MODIS sensor on Terra and Aqua. This recognition of scale allows the application of hierarchy theory (O'Neill. Improved stratification into capability classes might be achieved using maps of soil. since conventional ecosystem models lack the forcing data needed to be applied at an appropriate spatial and temporal scale. such as distance from home to fields. for example. climate oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillations. Whether all areas with a low realized percentage of potential primary production in Zimbabwe have suffered a shift to a quasi-stable state or states with reduced productivity requires further study. an instrument record is needed that minimizes the effects of instrument and other changes in the observations to allow the greatest possible sensitivity to changes in the land surface. would be the presence of lags. For applications to longer-term ecological processes such as desertification. DeAngelis et al.MAPPING DESERTIFICATION 179 The LNS method presented here essentially uses a “natural experiment” approach to estimate the potential production of large areas. however. may be the source not only of the degradation.. in areas highlighted by this analysis. An interesting possibility is that the socio-economic system that determines the type and intensity of utilization. or . although some such areas certainly exist. The interannual dynamics of the estimated productivity within each pixel should provide some additional insights. as may happen. a space scale of 1º x 1 º and a time scale of 20-50 years has been proposed for desertification (Prince 2002). In this case. The existence and ability to detect strata with uniform productive potential is fundamental to the method. or by both acting together. Degradation occurs when the productive potential of land is reduced by changed geophysical factors such as drought. The multiple states may have their origin in the internal processes of the vegetation. if the reduction in productivity caused by drought or over utilization reverses itself fairly quickly when the intensity of land use is reduced or adequate rain returns. the rainfall. starting in 2000. it is proposed that desertification is a phenomenon that occurs over large space and time scales (Prince 2002). slope. or by excessive human utilization. “desertification” should be reserved for ecosystems that are in stable. as a preliminary to field investigations. a new series of operational satellites (NOAA 2003). The key difference between desertification and reduced productivity caused by reduced rainfall or over-utilization.

. interannual factors are clearly not responsible for a condition that has persisted for >20 years. compared with that in its undesertified state. It is likely that different time scales should be used for cropped land and forest reserves. but it is also a national scale phenomenon caused by different histories of land tenure and governmental policies. Forse 1989. One aspect of productivity that needs further study is the impact of replacement of palatable with unpalatable species in overgrazed rangeland. The case study of Zimbabwe provides examples of two distinct types of land use that have led to quite different patterns of degradation (Table 2) (Gore.180 PRINCE global warming. Brown de Colstoun et al.. The actual extent and severity of regional and subcontinental-scale desertification is an important issue that affects policy with respect to economic development strategies and aid programs. Tucker. 1991. compared with the two principal human land use systems. 2001). it is the difference between the potential of the land. desertification manifests itself in terms of reduced productivity (Reynolds.. Ludwig et al. The case of Zimbabwe is a clear illustration of the fact that the lack of sustainability caused by degradation of land is not only a field scale problem. Palmer et al. human land use is central to the definition of desertification. communal and commercial. UNCED 1992. Productivity takes no account of species composition and no reliable method of species identification by remote sensing exists (Hanan. not with respect to a presumed pristine condition before extensive human alteration of the land occurred. 1991. The foregoing propositions are all amenable to investigation since they can be stated as questions. each criterion determines the nature of appropriate measurement and monitoring methods for desertification. with the map of RPPP. 1981) is another. such as local soil erosion. The time scale that should be used to calculate the RPPP remains to be determined. provide an unusually clear case for further study. Desertification focuses on the potential of land to supply goods and services desired by the land manager. for whatever purpose it is used in its current state.. this view has been challenged in a number of studies (Watts 1987. Prévost et al. It seems probable that reduced primary production can provide an earlier and more sensitive indication of desertification than erosion features. Time series analysis of annual productivity may reveal this and other differences between cover types. Dregne et al. Do multiple stable states arise in desertified land? Are humans always involved in the creation of desertified land through over-utilization relative to its productive potential? Are the causes of desertification more clearly understood when particular space and time scales are adopted? Is reduced productivity a key component of desertification? If accepted. 1992). The degree of agreement between the 1980 (approximate date) National Land Degradation Survey and the 2000 (approximate date) RPPP map suggests long-term degradation. and is significant in the context of global . The relative contributions of the principal physical factors. In Zimbabwe. drought and land capability. desertification most usefully applies to land under its existing use. Katerere et al. there is close agreement of the Land Degradation Survey. based on visual air photo identification of erosion features... 1998) and the issue is in urgent need of reconsideration with more appropriate data (Helldén 1991). 2002). bush encroachment (Walker. Fabricius. Third. Whether productivity can detect the same changes that are often defined in terms of changes in species composition remains to be investigated. Fourth. Furthermore. Although widespread desertification of semi-arid lands is generally treated as an established fact. In particular. Prince.

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. CIRES 216 UCB. Archer et al. JOHNSON3. regional. Despite the long-standing recognition of woody plant encroachment as a worldwide natural resources management problem (see Archer 1994). Kochy and Wilson.. reductions in biomass are in stark contrast to significant increases in woody plant abundance in many grasslands worldwide. 1996. Division of Biology. the proliferation of woody vegetation at the expense of grasses threatens to render substantial portions of these areas incapable of supporting pastoral. Land Change Science. 1990. Land-cover change of this type and magnitude is likely to affect key ecosystem processes in grasslands. Stanford. STEVEN ARCHER2. Department of Global Ecology. 1998). Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences & Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. Caspersen et al. Though not well quantified on a global scale. 2000. and may significantly alter carbon cycling and feedbacks to climate change.). WESSMAN1. The result is that organic matter inputs from woody species are more 185 G. atmospheric CO2 enrichment. School of Renewable Natural Resources. P. 2001). land use practices associated with livestock grazing and reductions in fire frequency have been implicated as proximate causes for this widespread land cover change (Archer 1995. Box 210043. While interannual climate variability.. Manhattan. when woody species increase in abundance and transform grasslands into savannas and savannas into woodlands. Colorado 80309-0216 2 University of Arizona.. 260 Panama Street. . Kansas 66506 USA 4 Carnegie Institution of Washington. These changes in vegetation structure significantly affect ecosystem carbon storage because woody plants produce lignin-rich structural tissues that decompose slowly.. 2000. California 94305 1 1 Introduction While the environmental impacts of tropical deforestation have received considerable attention. LORETTA C. (eds. © 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. this vegetation change has been widely reported in tropical. and they are more deeply rooted than the grass species they displace (Jackson et al. Hence. Boutton et al. Moreover. Ackert Hall Rm 232. 185–208. GREGORY P.. Van Auken 2000).CHAPTER 11 WOODLAND EXPANSION IN US GRASSLANDS Assessing Land-Cover Change and Biogeochemical Impacts CAROL A. the potential to substantially alter C sequestration and dynamics at local.O. 325 Biological Sciences East Bldg. temperate and high-latitude rangelands worldwide (Archer 1994. 1995. 2000). subsistence. Boulder. Grassland/savanna systems account for 30 to 35% of global terrestrial NPP (Field et al. Tucson. and global scales is great. little is known regarding the rates and dynamics of the phenomenon or its ecological consequences. thus adversely affecting 20% of the world’s population inhabiting these lands (Turner et al. 2001). Gutman et al. Arizona 85721-0043 3 Kansas State University. Campbell and Stafford Smith. and nitrogen deposition are also likely contributing factors (Archer et al... or commercial livestock grazing. ASNER4 University of Colorado. Printed in the Netherlands. 1999).

we are challenged with interpreting their functional significance with respect to biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks regulating the climate-atmosphere system. greater productivity (Long et al. and availability of subsidies. Follett et al. Fensham and Holman.. “thickening” of woody vegetation in dryland and montane forest ecosystems has emerged as a significant but highly uncertain modern sink (Schimel et al. across large areas. regional landscapes are dynamic and complex mosaics of woody plant cover classes whose trends through time are difficult to track with traditional technologies and approaches. Bovey 2001). Scholes and Hall. and in a heterogeneous manner dictated by topography. Scholes and Hall. The extent to which brush management is employed by landowners and land management agencies depends on energy costs. Pacala et al. In the most recent USA carbon budget assessments. Jobbagy and Jackson. chemical or mechanical methods. 1996. Quantification of the effects of woody encroachment on C and N sequestration and dynamics is critical to assessing impacts of land-cover/land-use change in grassland ecosystems. 1995. increases in woody cover in some areas during some time periods may be off-set by episodic wildfire. and climate. These ‘natural’ reductions in woody plant cover are augmented by anthropogenic brush clearing using various combinations of prescribed burning. soils and land use (Archer 1994). Guenther et al. 1996). Remote sensing and modeling are being . occur relatively slowly (decadal time scales). 1996b.. 1998. Furthermore.. Daly et al. Remote sensing can be used to correctly classify vegetation structure and land use and their changes over time. However. A significant proportion of this organic matter is distributed deep in the soil profile (Jobbagy and Jackson. 1993). dryland ecosystems with mixtures of woody and herbaceous vegetation appear to have a higher biodiversity (Solbrig 1996). one in the humid grasslands of the Great Plains and one in the arid to semi-arid rangelands of the Southwest. grassland savanna woodland cover changes have strong potential to increase ecosystem carbon storage and contribute to a global carbon sink (Ciais et al. JOHNSON AND ASNER resistant to decomposition and tend to accumulate in the soil. As a result of these combined natural and anthropogenic forces. transitions between grass and woody plant-dominated ecosystems may affect regional precipitation patterns (Hoffmann and Jackson. 2001) than previously realized. 2001. 1998. Ewing and Dobrowolsky. The ability to predict changes in landscapes characterized by mixtures of herbaceous and woody plants has emerged as one of the top priorities for global change research (Walker 1996. ARCHER. To further complicate matters. 1999). Houghtonv 2003a.. quantification of such impacts is challenging because woody encroachment rates are highly non-linear and accentuated by episodic climatic events. 2000).186 WESSMAN.. The relative lack of quantitative information regarding the areal extent of these vegetation transformations or their influence on biogeochemical cycles and land surfaceatmosphere linkages prompted NASA to fund two projects in the United States that are focused on woody plant abundance in grasslands. Once these properties are known. mechanistic field studies.. 1992) die-off. 1995).. 2000) where decomposition and microbial activity are slow (Sombroek et al. IPCC 1996a...b). 1989. 2000. 2000. local. Indeed..(Allen and Breshears. Consequently. Jackson 2000. each of which differ in efficacy and treatment longevity (Scifres 1980.. 2000) and concentrations of trophospheric non-methane hydrocarbons (Klinger et al. 1999) or pathogen-induced (McArthur et al. The emphasis of both projects was to develop landscape and regional-scale assessment strategies based in detailed. 1990. state and federal policies. and a larger impact on the global carbon cycle (Hall et al.

natural disturbance regimes and/or land use can therefore induce shifts in vegetation structure from grass to woodland (Scholes and Archer. These case studies were established to allow us to explore commonalities and differences across grassland systems that suggest key processes or constraints driving the woody encroachment phenomenon. Slight changes in climate. dominant species. a woody plant stature gradient ranging from shrub . Movement of a forest ecotone or expansion of shrubland into neighboring grassland results in dramatic shifts in vegetation structure. thus leaf longevity will be species rather than region specific.WOODLAND EXPANSION IN US GRASSLANDS 187 linked to address the broad-scale properties of these transitional systems. from an herbaceous lowstature system to a more vertical. including seasonality of production. The Great Plains and the Southwest regions of the United States consist of grasslands bioclimatically bordered by forest and shrubland. grazing and browsing). although some generalities will likely fall out along a moisture gradient. nutrient cycling (quality and quantity of litter). leaf longevity (evergreen vs. respectively. deciduous) and nitrogen-fixation potential will control functional dynamics. Vegetation attributes such as plant stature (subshrub vs. shrub vs. the challenges associated with the remote sensing of woody encroachment fall within a common domain. These case studies represent endpoints of a climatic range from mesic/temperate to xeric/subtropical. the bright background of litter and arid soils will become increasingly evident in satellite imagery. However. and biodiversity. in the transition from humid to arid environments. and general soil and topographic properties. the dynamics of carbon accumulation and loss relative to topo-edaphic and climate gradients.1 synthesizes results from a series of case studies of ecosystem impacts associated with woody plant proliferation in grasslands in the Great Plains and Southwestern USA. As woody vegetation becomes smaller and sparser. As a consequence. the short. Influences of canopy geometry. seasonality and background reflectance must be taken into consideration in all scenarios. The relative degree to which these factors confound the detection of changes in woody plant abundance will vary by region. woody state. tree).and long-term impacts of structural shifts from grassland to woodland will vary widely and will be heavily influenced by local management practices. the consequences of encroachment will vary with climate regime. Section 3. For example. canopy height and woody plant densities will generally decline. 1997). soils (primarily texture and depth) and disturbances (such as fire. Despite these system-specific variations. and the strength and influence of the land management legacy on structural and biogeochemical dynamics. and that will lead us on the path to robust generalizations 2 Case Studies: the Great Plains and the Southwestern Grasslands of the USA The relative abundance of grassland versus woodland is governed by interactions between climate (primarily amount and seasonality of rainfall). Land management activities which typically affect (directly and indirectly) the extent of grazing and browsing by livestock and wildlife and which seek to control woody plant abundance via prescribed fire or clearing with mechanical techniques or herbicides will disrupt process dynamics and leave landscapes in various states of transition. These features are common to all encroachment scenarios. Evergreen and deciduous woody plants are common to both mesic and xeric regions.

carbon inputs from woody plants appear to be dominating the SOC pool in upper horizons within 50 years of their establishment (See ‘Surficial Soil C from Woody Vegetation’ in Table 1). shrubland and woodland ecosystems. (d) the extent to which they incorporate effects of climate. evergreen. However. SOC mass reflects the balance between organic matter inputs from plants and losses from the decay of organic matter. their complexity and their data requirements. Table 1 summarizes some of the changes known to occur when woody plants invade and establish in grasslands. the novel. non-linear behavior of communities undergoing lifeform transformations cannot be accounted for by simply studying or modeling woody and herbaceous components independently (House et al. Neilson 1995. 3 Assessing the Change and Impacts 3. non-N-fixing). linking remote sensing of changes in woody plant cover/biomass/leaf area with ecosystem process models is one approach for making large scale assessments and predictions of changes in ecosystem function resulting from changes in the relative abundance of woody plants in dryland systems. as several of the studies in Table 1 indicate. complex. N-fixing vs. significant changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen pools can occur at decadal time scales subsequent to the establishment of woody plants in grasslands. utilize.188 WESSMAN. (b) their fundamental assumptions of how and to what extent woody and herbaceous plants access. Section 3. Models explicitly incorporating woody-herbaceous interactions and dynamics vary widely with respect to their approach. spatially-explicit treatment of individual plants and vary with respect to (a) the extent to which they incorporate plant physiological and population processes. Daly et al. decomposition and nutrient cycling processes exist for grassland. What is remarkable from these studies is the speed at which some changes have occurred. although many concepts and principles developed for grassland. As discussed in subsequent sections. SOC could increase if woody plants were more productive than herbaceous plants. Changes in soil properties for example have traditionally been viewed as occurring on the scale of centuries. from highly validated empirical formulations to mechanistic.1 ECOSYSTEM AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL IMPACTS Extensive databases on productivity.g. ARCHER. shrubland and forest systems are potentially relevant.. and (e) their treatment of competition or facilitation interactions. we cannot necessarily take what we know of patterns and processes in these systems and apply them to systems undergoing shifts from herbaceous to woody plant domination. and redistribute resources. However. JOHNSON AND ASNER to arboreal to arborescent and growth-form contrasts (deciduous vs. pit-falls and challenges in using linked remote sensing-modeling approaches to assess the functional consequences of remotely sensed changes in the structure of ecosystems experiencing shifts in woody versus herbaceous land cover.. In the context of woody plant proliferation. (c) their spatial and temporal resolution. Indeed.2 then reviews the approaches. They span a continuum of detail. 2003). The appropriate representation of mixed woody-herbaceous systems is fundamental to the performance of global vegetation models (e. Furthermore. 2000).. and/or if woody-plant tissues decayed more . soils and disturbance.

98. Numerical superscripts point to studies reporting these changes.2-2.8 9 + 9 11 ++ 13 ++ 13 ++ 11 18 ++9 11 18 38 45-88%d.unm. + c. letter superscripts refer to explanations (see footnotes). “?” denotes expected but unsubstantiated changes). 96. slight decrease. no change.edu/ Sevellita: http://sevilleta.3% /yr 1 Vernon 34.ksu.konza.edu/. 2 3 La Copita 27. Table 1. respectively.7 +? 27 7 0.edu/HomePage. 99.html Vernon: http://juniper.edu/IRM/brush/P01JAprojecthome.edu/SRER/ Metric Lat/Long City State Annual PPT (mm) Annual Mean Temp (˚C) Characteristics of Dominant Woody Plants Stature Evergreen (E) or Deciduous (D) Potential N2-fixation? Genera Fractional Cover (%/y) Soil Temp Surficalf Soil Moisture ANPP Plant C Pool Aboveground Plant C Pool Belowground Soil Organic Carbon Surficalf Soil C from Woody Vegetation (%) Soil Respiration Nmin NO/N20Flux NMHC Flux Microbial Biomass Potentially Mineralizable Soil C Net C exchange (source.htm La Copita: http://www.2%/yrb.arizona. For additional information on sites. Precipitation and temperature mediate this tradeoff by exerting control over both plant growth (inputs) and decomposition (outputs).4° N. and major increase. 24 ++ 9 ++ 11 ++ 29 ++ 31 ++ 9 ++ 9 Sink 13 -. + (?)36 .1°N.com/lacopita _research_area/ Jornada: http://usda-ars.nmsu. Changes in ecosystem properties accompanying woody plant encroachment into grasslands (--.2° W Vernon Texas 655 mm 17 ˚C Arborescent Deciduous Yes Prosopis +0. + 10 ++ ? ++ 15 2 -. slight increase. +.5° N. 0.WOODLAND EXPANSION IN US GRASSLANDS 189 slowly than herbaceous plant inputs.geocities.1° W Alice Texas 680 mm 22 ˚C Arborescent Deciduous Yes Prosopis +0. -.1°W Manhatten Kansas 835 mm 13 ˚C Tree Evergreen No Juniperus +2. sink) Litter Decomposition Maximum depth of nematodes (m) Plant Species Diversity (richness) Konza 39. 15 20 -.18 0.tamu. visit the following URLs: Konaza: http://climate.7%/y 4 --? 7 ++ 12 ++ 12 0? 7 0 19 50% 19 -. Santa Rita: http://ag. + (?)36 + 28 07 07 Sink (?) 33 --35 -36 Sink 34 0 20 0. ++ represent substantial decrease.

12=Norris et al. 38=Gill & Burke 1999. but decreases under creosote bush (-9%) and .190 WESSMAN. 34=Ansley et al. 33= J. + 16 + 20 53-72% e. 2002. JOHNSON AND ASNER Metric Lat/Long City State Annual PPT (mm) Annual Mean Temp (˚C) Characteristics of Dominant Woody Plants Stature Evergreen (E) or Deciduous (D) Potential N2-fixation? Genera Fractional Cover (%/y) Soil Temp Surficalf Soil Moisture ANPP Plant C Pool Aboveground Plant C Pool Belowground Soil Organic Carbon Surficalf Soil C from Woody Vegetation (%) Soil Respiration Nmin NO/N20Flux NMHC Flux Microbial Biomass Potentially Mineralizable Soil C Net C exchange (source.8°W Tucson Arizona 275-450 mm a 22-25 ˚C a Shrub Deciduous Yes Prosopis +0. 6=McClaran 2003. f Upper 7 to 20 cm 1=Hoch et al 2002. 40=Cross & Schlesinger 1999. 26=M. 2002. Martens. 15=Hughes et al. 1997. 4=Archer et al 1988.14 -..20 ++ 20 0.106.M. 13=Hibbard et al.5° N. 31=Guenther 1999.A. 29=Cole 1996. e Values for different soil particle size fractions. changes in SOC may be species dependent based on plant productivity. 25 Sevilleta 34.2%/y 6 . For example. Martens. 2= Asner et al. 1991.21 ++22 23 ++ 30 -. 2001a. 11=Hibbard.P. at the Jornada site (MAP = 230 mm) SOC increases ~230% under tarbush. and/or tissue chemistry. 1998. 10=Simmons 2003. Range reflects different land use/management histories. 2001. ARCHER.5°N. unpublished data. et al. 39=Nash et al. sink) Litter Decomposition Maximum depth of nematodes (m) Plant Species Diversity (richness) a Jornada 32. McClaran & D.5b. 8=Archer 1995. 5=Buffington et al. unpublished data. 1998. 9=McCulley 1998. 7=Smith & Johnson 2003b. 2000. 2003. 22=Tiedemann & Klem-medson 1986. allocation patterns. The broad range of responses in Table 1 likely results from several factors. 0 16 -. 18=Archer et al. 23=Klemmedson & Tiedemann1986. d Range for different community types and age-states. 1965. First. + (?) 36 b Values for low and high elevation sites. respectively. Hamm.8°N. 2001.21 +? ++22 23 37% 26 0 37 + 32 . 3= Ansley et al.A. 2003.106. 37=Hartley & Schlesinger 2000.Obs. 110. 2001. 35=Norris et al. 19=Smith & Johnson 2003a. c Range may reflect local differences in soil type and land use history. 20=Jackson et al. 36=Pers.21 . 28=Martin 2003. 14=Huenneke et al.17 + 21 20 + 38 . 25=Connin et al. 17=Cross & Schlesinger 2001.8°W Las Cruces New Mexico 230 mm 16 ˚C Shrub D&E Yes & No Prosopis/Larrea +0.40 .4-0. 24=Boutton et al. 32=Gallardo & Schlesinger 1992. 16=Schlesinger & Pilmanis 1998. 2001b. 27=Norris 2000. 2002.9°W Albuquerque New Mexico 255 mm 14 ˚C Shrub Evergreen No Larrea Santa Rita 31. 30=D. unpublished data. 21=Kieft et al.5 + 39 .

g. substantial increases in maximum depth on some sites (Sevilleta) and no changes on another site (Vernon). N-mineralization and NO emissions (e. Note large increase in C stocks on forested sites for all strata. 2002). At the Vernon site. 2003a) Differences in woody plant effects on soil properties listed in Table 1 might also reflect differences in the ways microbial communities respond to changes in vegetation structure. despite suppression of soil respiration and high inputs of low litter quality by this evergreen arborescent (Figure 1) (Smith and Johnson.99 Figure 1. They found substantial decreases in maximum depth on some sites (Jornada).734 2. (Smith and Johnson. shifts from bacterial to fungal populations may accompany shifts from herbaceous to woody domination (Purohit et al. Explanations for this behavior are elusive. 2000) to 27103% in more diverse subtropical woodlands (Boutton et al. but available information available is scanty and conflicting. non-methane hydrocarbon emissions. some studies have shown significant .e. La Copita.. and hence maintain or increase soil respiration and mineralization. Juniperus encroachment in Konza appears to have caused little change in the SOC pool. SOC increases following woody plant proliferation in former grasslands range from 9% in temperate mesquite stands (Hughes et al.529 4.. Santa Rita).84 76.660 Litterfall 9. increasing C:N). It is interesting to note that plant and soil C and N stocks increase at some sites despite significant increases in soil respiration.. Soil respiration in forest is reduced by~30% compared to grassland.380 77. 1998).WOODLAND EXPANSION IN US GRASSLANDS 191 mesquite (-15%) (Schlesinger and Pilmanis. Soil Respiration Soil Respiration 6. Jackson et al. In Texas (Vernon and La Copita) (MAP = 660-715 mm). 1998). (2002) inventoried nematodes dependent on plant roots as indicators of changes in microbial activity accompanying shifts from grass to woody plant dominance. Changes in root biomass distribution accompanying shifts from grass to woody plant domination may also change the nature and depth of microbial activity. For example. Woody plant effects on microclimate which affect decomposition rates (notably soil moisture and temperature) also vary among growth forms in that evergreen and deciduous canopies differ in their magnitude and seasonality of rainfall and radiant energy interception. Summary of measured carbon stocks (kg/ha) and fluxes (kg/ha/yr) in grassland and closed canopy Junipe forest.720 5. thus enabling decomposers to more effectively deal with lower litter quality (i.230 Soil Organic C 2. potentially affecting decomposition processes and hence C and N pools and fluxes. In contrast. 2003a).540 Soil Organic C 87.

However. JOHNSON AND ASNER declines in SOC with woody plant encroachment (Jackson et al. At the Jornada site. The challenge for ecosystem modelers is to develop approaches for representing and predicting. The linkage of remote sensing and ecosystem process models appears to be a viable strategy for tracking the functional consequences of changes in the relative abundance of herbaceous and woody vegetation in transitional grasslands. 1997. in a spatially explicit fashion over large areas. landscapes had ca. rates of woody community recovery following treatments. but no net change in total carbon stocks at the landscape scale. topoedaphic features do exert substantial control over the direction and rate of change in plant and soil nutrient pools and fluxes. SOC increases in subtropical woodland communities developing on former grasslands vary from 27-37% on upland sandy loam soils to 103% on lowland clay loam soils (Boutton et al.. losses of SOC associated with livestock grazing in the late 1800s-early 1900s appear to have been fully compensated for by invading woody plants by the 1950s. as C gains associated with woody plant proliferation are relatively small and have been offset by losses from inter-shrub zones (Connin et al. 2003). Asner et al.. Schlesinger and Pilmanis. an overlooked aspect of the woody plant encroachment phenomenon is the fact that land managers have been and will continue to implement management practices to reduce woody plant cover (see Section 4. and by the 1990s. 2002) while others have shown significant increases (Hughes et al. ARCHER. shifts from grass to shrub domination have caused major changes in soil nutrient distributions (nutrient pools in shrub-affected soils >> nutrient pools of non-shrub soils). 2000). . 1998). Currently we know little of the extent of such clearing practices..1).192 WESSMAN.. at the La Copita site. Approaches for doing this are discussed in the next section. The magnitude of geophysical-induced losses and extent to which woody plants can compensate for these likely varies with soils and climate. present at the time of settlement. 30% more carbon than would occur had the pristine grasslands.. Studies documenting effects of woody plant encroachment on ecosystem processes are accumulating. Reasons for this discrepancy may be indicative of the importance of local differences in soil types and land management histories (e. may also accelerate the loss of SOC via increased oxidation and erosion. For example. 1998). Teague et al. the ecosystem specific changes (Table 1) that occur when land cover transitions from grass to woody plant domination. been maintained (Hibbard et al. The challenge for the remote sensing community is to provide tools for tracking structural and biophysical changes accompanying shifts in woody versus herbaceous plant abundance. For example. The potential for ecosystem C-sequestration associated with the conversion of grass.. 1999.g. 2003). Indeed. which promote woody plant encroachment.. In contrast.to woody plant domination will also reflect that balance between biotic processes promoting carbon accumulation (plant modification of soils and microclimate) and geophysical processes promoting nutrient losses (wind/water erosion). These contrasting scenarios point to the need to account for both loss and gain vectors and to the potential dangers of extrapolating from plant or patch scale measurements to ecosystem/landscape scales. or how the treatments affect soil nutrient pools and fluxes. disturbances such as grazing.

In general.g. and mixtures of soil.. and biogeochemical processes to broader spatial and temporal scales. Remote sensing techniques developed for woody encroachment assessment in drylands can be applied to more mesic environments such as the Great Plains in which heterogeneity in cover types and land uses is also prevalent... 1994. wood.. that address the issue of quantifying woody and herbaceous plant canopy properties. fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed (fAPAR). and canopy geometries are the norm.. Vegetation cover is arguably the most important remote sensing measurement needed to extend a field-level understanding of ecological.... Schlesinger et al. LIDAR) observations in the pursuit of spatial and temporal information on ecosystem dynamics. including our own.g. the same principles will apply to these areas as the drylands. content and biomass also indicate .g. These drylands extend over about 45% of the global land surface and are subject to a vast array of land uses and climate variations. Daly et al. and can be estimated from remotely sensed optical data (e. and water content indicate plant condition. soil and rock material on Earth.g. 1994. or stress of a given vegetation canopy. Arid and semi-arid regions contain some of the most complex spatial mixtures of vegetation. 2001). Ustin et al. Asner et al.2. A wide variety of studies have employed optical.. Remote sensing of vegetation “condition” is another important component of the effort to monitor changes in land cover and use. Neilson 1995. These characteristics can be indicative of both plant function and land use intensity (e. Qi et al. with noted exceptions resulting from changes in background (increased ground cover) and. and it serves as an important indicator of ecological and biogeochemical processes (Table 1. It is critical for regional-scale monitoring of land management practices (e. 2000).WOODLAND EXPANSION IN US GRASSLANDS 3. Asrar et al. 1998.. we define vegetation condition as the vigor.2 LANDCOVER CHANGE 193 3. cover information is needed to constrain ecosystem and land-surface biophysical models to actual abundance and distribution of cover types (e. 1994). fAPAR can be used to estimate net primary productivity (Prince 1991..1 Remote Sensing of Grassland-Woodland Transitions Conversion of grasslands to shrub. hydrological. hydrological and geological studies are thus very tenuous without the bird’s eye view afforded by airborne and space-based remote sensing. passive microwave and active (e. Field et al.. Integrated over time. seasonality. in some cases. Remotely sensed estimates of standing litter or “dry carbon” cover. and the unique challenges these systems present for vegetation monitoring. Pickup et al. Archer et al. Optical radiance or reflectance approaches have been the most successful.g. Field-based ecological.. We emphasize studies. 1996... Here we summarize the challenges and successes in developing airborne and space-based optical remote sensing methods for quantifying vegetation cover in heterogeneous landscapes. Sellers et al. Here. Furthermore. Running et al. 1994. 1990. 1995). foliage. photosynthetic capacity. Pickup et al. Variations in vegetation leaf area index (LAI). 2000).. 1992. providing an avenue to extend field-level relationships between plant productivity and other ecosystem processes to broader spatial scales. Pickup and Chewings. Our discussion of remote sensing science centers on the remote sensing of drylands due to our experience and progress. 1997. litter.. Pure pixels of one structural type are rare.or woodlands creates heterogeneous landscapes that challenge most remote sensing techniques seeking to quantify land-cover types and land-cover change. as this information is central to any analysis of woody encroachment and cover change. 1986. 1998b).

texture statistics describing the local variation of pixel brightness (mean. 2001) used textural filtering of digitized aerial photographs and geostatistical analyses to estimate shrub density and temporal variability in South African savanna landscapes over a 30-year period.. and others). IKONOS-based results agreed well with both field and low-altitude aerial photography estimates of woody canopy cover. 1998). Myneni and Williams. Tieszen et al. One of the most common means to remotely assess vegetation characteristics is the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).. 1997. However. Roberts et al. and range of values within a specified pixel window) for each location can be analyzed across a large geographic region to estimate variation in the vegetation and soil cover. a metric used to detect changes in pixel-scale vegetation greenness. and carbon cycling (Asner et al. Asrar et al.to late twentieth century.194 WESSMAN. Ustin et al. Today. Moran et al. both in terms of percentage cover and spatial distribution.. 1990). 1973.. Their findings showed no change in woody plant canopy cover following widespread drought in mid. 1993). flammability.spaceimaging. Hudak and Wessman (1998. cover and biomass (Williamson and Eldridge.g. Asner and Heidebrecht (2002) used IKONOS imagery at the Jornada Experimental Range in New Mexico (USA) to quantify woody vegetation cover. 1995. 3.. Time series of greenness derived from the NDVI have been successfully employed in mapping vegetation community and physiological classes in temperate grasslands and shrublands (Paruelo and Lauenroth. The NDVI is broadly correlated with canopy chlorophyll and water content (Sellers 1985. 3. 1994. . 1989. The newest instruments such as the satellite IKONOS (http://www. Image texture provides a means to understand land cover heterogeneity and the changes that occur at a spatial scale commensurate with human activities (Haralick et al.. ARCHER.. Schlesinger and Gramenopoulos (1996) used declassified high spatial resolution (~4m) monochromatic reconnaissance satellite photographs to estimate changes in woody vegetation cover between 1943 and 1994 along the SahelSahara Desert ecotone in west Sudan. variance.2.2 Spatial Observations Spatial observations are the oldest and most intuitive type of remote sensing. 1986. The NDVI has been the most commonly employed spectral index in dryland environments. JOHNSON AND ASNER vegetation condition (Wessman et al. Texture refers to the local variation of land surface components such as shrubs and bare soils.2. there is a significant demand for high spatial resolution data such as from aerial photography and spaceborne sensors. 1998b. the ~1 m IKONOS data were valuable for quantifying woody cover only when the canopies were 3 m in diameter. This approach also provides a means to analyze historical aerial photographs by minimizing the effects of systematic errors associated with background brightness variation and vignetting. For example. Asner and Lobell. 2000) and provide an index of fire fuel loads.3 Spectral Observations Spectral radiance (or reflectance) observations contain significant information on vegetation and soil properties of ecosystems.. cattle pasture condition in drylands has been assessed by linking the NDVI to field estimated canopy greenness. In remotely sensed data. Franklin and Peddle. 1998) and as such can be linked to LAI and fAPAR by plant canopies (e. hydrological function.com) provide monochromatic imagery at <1m spatial resolution. Landscape or image texture is closely related to the issue of spatial resolution. 1992.

(1994) used a multi-temporal vegetation index derived from visible wavelength channels to successfully estimate semi-arid rangeland vegetation cover. 1988. A wide range of SMA efforts have now been applied in analyses of grasslands using airborne and spaceborne multi-spectral scanners (e.. 1996). 1998). 1990a. Wessman et al. Thus. whether or not it was caused by altered vegetation cover or condition of the cover cannot be readily determined..g. 1997. it is exceedingly difficult to locate image pixels containing 100% cover of each pertinent endmember. and green canopy fAPAR in California grasslands. Multi-spectral. owing to the variability of background materials such as soils and surface litter (Huete and Jackson. A major assumption in linear mixture modeling is that the spectral variability of the major landscape components is accommodated by the reflectance signatures employed in the models. When an NDVI change occurs. the NDVI has had limited success in providing accurate estimates of shrubland cover in arid regions (e. In a study to estimate Juniperus virginiana (Eastern redcedar) canopy abundance in eastern Kansas. 1995) found strong correlations between the NDVI and leaf area index. One of the most common methods for woody and herbaceous cover analysis of grasslands involves decomposing image pixels into their constituent surface cover classes. Known as spectral mixture analysis (SMA). However. Smith et al. it is not differentially sensitive to changes in vegetation cover versus condition (Carlson and Ripley. 1991). Asner et al. 1996). 1997). 2000). library spectra have been widely employed with the recognition that libraries cannot easily capture the full range of endmember variability as is found in nature. Graetz and Gentle. Elmore et al. The NDVI has been used to assess vegetation greenness changes associated with large-scale rainfall anomalies in dryland regions (Nicholson et al.b. (1993.. Duncan et al. Tucker et al. Roberts et al. 2000).. Moreover. 1993). they do not typically provide the spectral resolution necessary to delineate species. Independent of the endmember selection technique. Smith et al. including those related to El Niño-La Niña cycles (Myneni et al....g. Gamon et al. while others employ libraries of endmember spectra (e.. van Leeuwen and Huete... 1998a. The difference between green and non-photosynthetic vegetation helped .. 1997. Elmore et al. which is usually required when using imagederived endmembers in a spectral mixture model. or greenness conditions within the “green vegetation” class using spectral mixture models unless seasonality enables such separations. The technique allows the user to select endmember spectra based on the inherent spectral variability of the image data without requiring homogeneous pixels of each endmember.g. 1990. Landsat-type instruments tend to provide sufficient spectral information to broadly discriminate between green vegetation and non-photosynthetic materials such as litter and soil (Smith et al. Pickup et al. aboveground biomass. In heterogeneous landscapes. We conclude that the NDVI alone is not sufficient for quantifying woody canopy cover in drylands. 1990.. Wessman et al.g. functional groups.. Price (unpublished data) unmixed Landsat TM imagery acquired at a time when much of the matrix of tallgrass and deciduous forest was in the dormant stage. canopy nitrogen and chlorophyll content.WOODLAND EXPANSION IN US GRASSLANDS 195 1997). (2000) developed a unique SMA model that allows for the exploration of image data in multiple dimensions via principal components analysis. this method allows for the estimation of biophysically distinct cover types at the sub-pixel level.. Asner et al. 1998a).. Although the NDVI is sensitive to pixel-level changes in greenness and fAPAR.. 1982. Bateson and Curtiss (1996) and Bateson et al. Some SMA approaches utilize spectral endmembers derived from the image (e.. non-NDVI measurements have been developed to estimate vegetation cover in drylands. 1990..

Limitations to the information contained in multi-spectral imagery led to the evolution of higher spectral resolution imagers in the 1980s and 1990s. (1997) related subtle differences in hyperspectral reflectance endmembers to biophysical conditions related to rangeland management in a Kansas grassland. high spectral resolution allowed separation of litter from soil based on plant lignin-cellulose absorption features. a marked increase in performance was obtained when utilizing the full multi-spectral data from Landsat with spectral mixture analysis. biochemistry. and geochemical properties of materials. (Price. For example. Wessman et al. only a very small area (<1%) in the study areas are covered with close redcedar (redcedar fraction > 80%). Similarly. Figure 2. Further work is needed to refine the SMA model to reduce the uncertainty at low redcedar coverage estimate. Although the NDVI was generally correlated with green cover. indicating the relative new encroachment of the woody species. The large area with less than 25% redcedar in this study area strongly implies that redcedar cover is overestimated at low values. using spectral unmixing techniques. The performance of linear spectral mixture analysis has been compared to vegetation indices in drylands using multi-spectral satellite data. . Most areas have redcedar coverage between 25% . unpublished data) Multi-spectral sensors such as Landsat TM and MODIS may not provide sufficient information to spectrally separate soils from non-photosynthetic vegetation (Asner et al. Today. 2000). the NASA EO-1 Hyperion instrument is the first full spectral range imaging spectrometer to measure Earth’s spectral properties from space.50%..196 WESSMAN. (2000) demonstrated that SMA was more accurate than the NDVI (and other indices) for quantifying green canopy cover in a California desert. JOHNSON AND ASNER to distinguish the redcedar from the background when redcedar coverage exceeded 20% (Figure 2). (2000) compared the performance of a spectral mixture model against the NDVI in mapping green canopy cover from Landsat data. See CD for color image. McGuire et al. In particular. ARCHER. While redcedar invasion into the grassland is pervasive. Imaging spectrometers have recently become available for use from Earth orbit. The additional information provided by hyperspectral imagers over that of multispectral sensors has advanced many analyses of drylands. Elmore et al. Redcedar cover in the study area estimated from spectral mixture analysis of Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery. imaging spectroscopy employs hyperspectral data to quantify the spatial extent.

Asner et al. Sandmeier et al. Privette et al.. including grasslands (Deering et al.g. litter and wood at canopy and landscape scales and by the roughness of the exposed soil surface (Li and Strahler... 1992. At the landscape level. Reflectance anisotropy means that the reflectance behavior of vegetation can vary solely by differences in the angle from which the surface is observed or illuminated. NASA PROVE (Privette et al. The angular reflectance behavior of any land surface is determined predominantly by the spatial distribution and fractional amount of shadow apparent to the observer or remote sensor. 1997) experiments highlighted the issue of surface reflectance anisotropy in drylands. the number and size of gaps between shrubs in arid ecosystems can significantly affect landscape-level shadowing (Franklin and Turner.. 1985. For example.. shrub crowns) in 3-dimensional space (Ross 1981). 1992). The NASA FIFE (Sellers et al. Studies showed that up to 80% of the variability in the remote sensing measurements acquired by the NOAA AVHRR and many field sensors was due to surface BRDF effects (e. Roberts et al. Deering et al. Li and Strahler. the spatial distribution and shape of individual canopies or crowns can account for characteristic variation of the angular reflectance (Strahler and Jupp. 1991. and international HAPEX-Sahel (Goutorbe et al. Pinty et al.. 1992). it is another signature domain providing additional information on the biophysical properties of ecosystems. For example. The landscape structural properties affecting shadow can dominate the observed variability in angular reflectance signatures. (1996) and Gao . 1998).. New Mexico. Diner et al. (1998) used a multiple endmember spectral mixture model to map major plant functional groups and species in a California chaparral ecosystem. Therefore. 1992) and thus shape of the BRDF. Qin 1993). 1988). (1998b) used imaging spectrometer data with spectral mixture analysis and radiative transfer inverse modeling to estimate both the horizontal extent and vertical density of live and senescent vegetation and fire fuel load in subtropical savanna ecosystems in southern Texas..4 Angular Observations Angular reflectance properties of vegetation and soils have been assessed in many different regions. The BRDF of grasslands and woodlands is therefore dependent upon the orientation of foliage. litter and wood inclination and azimuthal orientation play a major role in determining the angular reflectance behavior of individual or horizontally homogeneous canopies (Myneni et al. In addition. 2000).WOODLAND EXPANSION IN US GRASSLANDS 197 Several other efforts have combined hyperspectral reflectance data with spectral mixture models to estimate sub-pixel cover of vegetation in drylands. 3.g. All studies show canopies to be directionally non-uniform or anisotropic reflectors of solar energy.2. (1999) showed that a set of six viewing angles of surface radiance improved LAI estimates over that which could be acquired using single view angle nadir observations. 1999).. The shape of the BRDF of land surface results from the orientation of the photon scattering elements (e. 1985. 1990. Another term commonly used to describe the angular reflectance behavior of a surface is the “bidirectional reflectance distribution function” or BRDF. A common goal of these efforts was to step from treating vegetation reflectance anisotropy as noise to treating the angular signatures as useful information. canopy foliage. Asner and Lobell (2000) used shortwave-IR (2000-2500 nm) hyperspectral data from AVIRIS to accurately estimate green vegetation. Privette et al. non-photosynthetic vegetation and bare soil extent in arid shrublands and grasslands of the Chihuahuan Desert. USA. 1989. Leaf. 1996..

.198 WESSMAN.g. The result was a net increase in woody cover and homogenization of woody cover over the 63-year period. Reasons for declines in woody cover on many landscapes in the region are discussed in Section 4. (2003) opted to use a mosaic of high-resolution aerial photos to establish an historical baseline for woody vegetation cover and satellite imagery to quantify contemporary cover. which may date back many decades.2. By accounting for the view-angle dependence of reflectance among ten unique vegetation types in semi-arid ecosystems of Mongolia. 3. individual trees or shrubs). There is also a tradeoff in ascertaining large-scale changes in woody plant cover in grasslands: the laborintensive process of developing mosaics of very high resolution aerial photos versus using lower spatial resolution satellite imagery covering a much larger geographic area but requiring more complicated signal processing and ground validation efforts. thus requiring little in the way of image manipulation. JOHNSON AND ASNER and Lesht (1997) used similar techniques to improve estimates of LAI in Kansas grasslands. satellite data require sophisticated calibration efforts.5 Historical Woody Cover Change Analysis There are numerous trade-offs between using aerial photography or satellite imagery to track changes in woody plant cover in grassland to woodland transitions. They used this combination to quantify woody cover and aboveground carbon changes for a 63-year period in a north Texas rangeland. There were also substantial areas where woody plant cover decreased from > 80% in 1937 to < 50% in 1999. he was able to significantly improve the spectral separability and subsequent classification of vegetation covers in the region. In addition. Asner et al. ARCHER. Chopping (2000) used a BRDF model to adjust for vegetation-specific reflectance anisotropy effects on red and NIR observations from a ground-based radiometer. As a compromise. allowing the accurate estimation of woody canopy cover and leaf area index in Texas savannas. Comparison of the 1937 and 1999 imagery revealed major changes in woody plant cover and aboveground carbon (Figure 3).. Sampling the surface BRDF can also be used in other ways to improve the accuracy of more traditional satellite metrics such as the NDVI in dryland regions. which dates back only to the 1970s.1. In contrast. Asner et al. (1998a) used multi-angle AVHRR observations to account for shadow fraction in Landsat imagery. Aerial photos. There were numerous landscapes throughout the region where woody cover increased from < 15% in 1937 to > 40% in 1999. and the greater disparity between satellite spatial resolution and vegetation patch characteristics requires analytical techniques such as spectral mixture analysis. are relatively inexpensive and can provide a deeper historical baseline from which to document change than satellite imagery. Areal estimates of woody cover in 1999 were then quantified using Landsat 7 data with spectral mixture analysis. the spatial resolution of aerial photos is often more commensurate with the ground area occupied by the vegetation of interest (e. Mosaics of high spatial resolution aerial photography were analyzed for woody cover in 1937 using textural filtering and classification techniques.

will have significant influence on analyses and interpretation of cover dynamics and their biogeochemical consequences. Similarly. Changes in woody vegetation cover in northern Texas between 1937 (left) and 1999 (right). management practices introduce a temporal complexity to the landscape as different areas or management units experience different land uses at different times.. The shrub encroachment process under “natural” conditions progresses on a decadal scale. Brush may be cleared via mechanical means in some pastures and via herbicides or prescribed fire in others. pastures or portions of pastures with high woody cover may be targeted for ‘brush management’ and those with low woody cover excluded from treatment. Cover in 2937 was estimated from aerial photography and texture-based classification convolved to 30 m spatial resolution. 2003). .WOODLAND EXPANSION IN US GRASSLANDS 199 Figure 3.1 SCALE-DEPENDENCE OF OBSERVATIONS Grassland landscapes undergoing woody encroachment are heterogeneous in both space and time. White lines denote fence lines separating livestock management units on the Kite Camp portion of the Waggoner Ranch. (Asner et al. remote and field-based. frequency of data acquisition. Detection of shrubs and trees within a grass matrix require image resolutions commensurate with the scale of the woody plants or sub-pixel analyses such as spectral mixture analysis. cover in 1999 is from Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery. For example. However. 4 Challenges and Caveats 4.

and the growth form (evergreen vs. environmental conditions immediately preceding and following the disturbance. remote sensing observations over large areas and limited temporal resolution show net changes (A). but others may not due to financial constraints. 1999). no herbicides I II Regional Woody Biomass or Cover (D) III 1950 1937 Aerial Photos Burned pastures 1990 1999 Satellite imagery 1900 Figure 4. 1990. drought (Archer et al. For example. remote sensing analyses of woodland expansion must be compatible with the spatial scale of the landscape components and the temporal resolution of the dynamics driving cover changes. 1992) or anthropogenic (e. 1988..200 WESSMAN. availability of subsidies. whereby increases in woody cover on some landscapes or management units (B and C) are offset by decreases in others (D). Thus. measurements with poor temporal resolution of net changes in woody plant cover across long time periods may insufficiently estimate rates of carbon cycling and consequently the source/sink potential of an area under transformation. Some stands regenerating from these setbacks might receive follow-up brush management treatments (Line III). brush management (Scifres 1980.. Line I represents woody stand development that might occur in the absence of disturbance (e. and many other factors.g. Ewing and Dobrowolski.g. grubbing. etc. elimination of fire due to grazing or active suppression) or management intervention. wildfire (Kurz and Apps. Allen and Breshears.. intensity and spatial extent of disturbance. 2003) In sum. JOHNSON AND ASNER A conceptual model illustrating the challenges to assessing regional woody plant cover and dynamics in the context of brush management is presented in Figure 4. deciduous) and regenerative traits involved.g. (Asner et al. See text for discussion. Frequency of data acquisition must keep pace with disturbance dynamics and/or land use change in order to capture the important transitional stages associated with management and recovery processes.) and 1950s drought (C) (B) (A) Trend w/ no fire. . 1998). Conceptual model illustrating limitations in tracking regional carbon stock assessments in managed rangelands using remotely sensed imagery. soil type. Widespread brush ‘control’ (herbicides. Bovey 2001)) events that ‘reset’ the carbon accumulation process. Line II represents a stand whose development is interrupted by natural (e. ARCHER. pathogenic (McArthur et al. The magnitude of these setbacks and rates of recovery vary depending upon the type.

This constrains the calculations to observed heterogeneity and reduces errors resulting from unrealistic assumptions based on optimum or potential conditions. we can.2 REMOTE SENSING-MODELING LINKS 201 New generations of ecosystem process models that incorporate remote sensing products as a basis for spatially explicit calculations at large scales are at various stages of development. Jackson et al. 1998).. (e. This point is particularly important under conditions of woody plant encroachment. 2001). in models such as the Carnegie-Stanford Approach (CASA).. to some degree of accuracy. vegetation structure.. but also provides some means to bypass our present-day inability to mechanistically connect principles of allocation to biogeochemistry and ecosystem function (Wessman and Asner. Schimel et al... 1998a). Gill et al.. Approaches linking dynamic simulations of function and process to remote sensing of structure and pattern hold promise for assessments of the functional consequences of changes in land-use/land-cover at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales. 2002) carbon storage and dynamics under contrasting land use practices at landscape and regional scales. calculate and track NPP and both above. 5 Conclusions Although shifts from grass to woody plant domination have been widely reported in the world’s grasslands (Archer et al. an association that is difficult to achieve based solely on field measurements under the best of conditions (Wessman and Asner. there has been no effort to systematically quantify the rate or extent of change nor to evaluate its biogeochemical consequences at large scales. 1995. and (b) the possibility of industry or government-sponsored “carbon credit” or “carbon offset” programs. 1997. 2003). integration of remotely sensed data with ecosystem models enables us to establish a fundamental connection between the spatial structure and the manifestation of functional processes at landscape scales.and belowground (e.. Two recently emerging factors add urgency to this particular land cover change issue: (a) the latest USA carbon budget assessments which implicate “thickening” of woody vegetation in grasslands as a major (Houghton 2003a) or perhaps even the single largest sink term (Schimel et al.g. Even if we were able to use field-based approaches. In spatially heterogeneous environments.WOODLAND EXPANSION IN US GRASSLANDS 4.. Through the integration of remote sensing and modeling. (2002) stress that current uncertainties around the net change in the . calculations of NPP are based on remote sensing-estimates of APAR rather than mechanistic details of NPP (Field et al. the sheer vastness and remoteness of the world’s drylands would make it impossible to make such assessments at the frequency and degree of spatial coverage that would be needed to adequately assess and track land use-land cover changes. Wylie et al. 1998). Field et al. Even a simple modeling exercise exploring diurnal PAR absorption and carbon uptake in a Texas savanna found that LAI. 2000).g. 1995). and intercanopy shading (all estimated remotely) are important controls on carbon fluxes which may scale to affect regional carbon estimates (Asner et al. For example. in which fundamental shifts in vegetation form result in profound functional differences and transitional properties that cannot be easily estimated based on a steady-state modeling approach. Remote sensing not only provides access to the spatial distribution of vegetation structure.

First. Indeed. 1993. Archer et al. brush management is often the greatest single expense in commercial ranching enterprises (Scifres 1980. subsidy and economic incentives for brush clearing on rangelands.and belowground relative to the grasslands it replaced (e. there has been strong policy. This requires well-designed field studies. traditionally. and second in our list. Scifres and Hamilton. as are the uncertainties in regional extrapolations of the biogeochemical consequences.. However. We believe that linked remote sensing-modeling approaches will be a critical underpinning for the types of landscape and regional monitoring and assessments that will be required by policy makers seeking to make informed decisions. and the implementation of ecosystem simulation models to test our knowledge and build scenarios of change trajectories. the encroachment phenomenon is of sufficient magnitude and extent that synoptic monitoring via remote sensing of the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of woody plant abundance is imperative.. Partial support was provided by the National Science Foundation and the USDA CSRS Rangeland Research Program and National Research Initiative. the complexity in such broad functional shifts in grassland to woodland transitions coupled to socioeconomic drivers of change are profound and in need of further study. ARCHER. The scientific community will be uniquely challenged to address the ramifications of these looming issues in land use. Indeed. documentation and monitoring of land use practices. 2001). Furthermore. . aquifer/stream recharge. However. studies of the biogeochemical consequences of these transitions must recognize the importance of understanding local and landscape mechanisms in order to achieve accurate and prognostic regional assessments. The ecosystem impacts of grassland to woodland transitions cannot be captured by ground measurements alone. From a carbon sequestration perspective this may be desirable. A third important factor is the fact that. 2001). Bovey 2001). and NOx and non-methane hydrocarbon emissions may also result (Archer et al. JOHNSON AND ASNER carbon cycle due to woody encroachment are large. Acknowledgments. there could be strong economic incentives to engage in land management practices that promote woody plant encroachment and the displacement of grasslands. wildlife habitat.g. with the prospect of carbon credit/offset programs. whereby land owners/managers may be paid NOT to clear existing woody vegetation. This research was supported by NASA EOS and LCLUC programs. perverse outcomes with respect to livestock production. ‘brush’ may become an income-generating commodity because of its potential to sequester more carbon above. However.. Our studies of grasslands in the Southwest and Great Plains emphasize the importance of three factors. We emphasize the importance of integrating fieldwork into the analysis and interpretation of remote sensing data and model development to achieve sufficient understanding of these complex landscapes.202 WESSMAN. It is easy to envision scenarios in the near future. grassland biodiversity.

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© 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. ambitious plans to develop the water resources for summer cropping. rapid population growth. From a relatively unmanaged landscape a hundred years ago. that has left no part of the landscape untouched. Still less can the local farmers fully comprehend the potential impacts on the land and their livelihoods of the wholesale withdrawal of water for irrigation. A few settlements of farmers and agro-pastoralists existed along the perennial rivers. to help put the trajectory of change into perspective. In this paper we briefly review the history of land use and use data derived from analysis of satellite images to describe the 209 G. Unlike most regions of the world. under natural conditions botanists reconstruct a terebinth-almond-woodland steppe (Moore. or government. New Haven. 2000:60. but there were no roads. towns. it typifies much that is happening in Southwest Asia generally. decisions by individual farmers to install wells. Land Change Science.CHAPTER 12 ARID LAND AGRICULTURE IN NORTHEASTERN SYRIA Will this be a tragedy of the commons? FRANK HOLE1. 1 Introduction A hundred years ago. New Haven. RONALD SMITH2 1 2 Yale University. we have archaeological evidence for this region that extends back some 9000 years. Pabot 1957). the semi-arid steppe of northeastern Syria was seasonal grazing land for migratory herders. the region has recently been subjected to water diversion. Collectively these have led to fundamental alteration of the natural drainage in favor of ground water extraction.081 km2 is one of the most fertile and intensively cultivated regions in the Near East (Figure 1). storage reservoirs and irrigation canals.). Although bare of trees today. encompassing 37. Gutman et al. This case study outlines historical changes and makes use of satellite imagery and historic documents to quantify recent changes. and competing needs and programs in the river's headwaters in Turkey. Anthropology. We have monitored the magnitude of recent changes through satellite imagery. In this semi-arid zone successful agriculture usually requires either supplemental or full irrigation. Geology & Geophysics. CT 06520 USA Yale University. . the extension of agriculture. (eds. CT 06520 USA Abstract Land use in the Khabur River drainage of northeastern Syria has changed from open rangeland to an intensely cultivated landscape in less than 100 years. as well as sporadic historic documents over the last 4000 years. Today. While this case study focuses on a single river system. and settlement of formerly nomadic tribes. the Khabur River drainage. The drivers of the changes have included settlement of refugees. 209–222. et al. Printed in the Netherlands. The recent changes have been so rapid and pervasive that they cannot be comprehended from any single locale on the ground. The sustainability of the system under current practices is in doubt.

6 x 106 m3 annual). Precipitation at the headwaters in Turkey may reach 800 mm. we consider the sustainability of these Figure 1. 2 The Khabur Region With much of its watershed in southern Turkey. it is the largest perennial tributary of the Euphrates in Syria and a source of fertile agricultural land within its lower terraces (USDA 1980). HOLE AND SMITH Finally. The northern Jazirah has fertile soils and sufficient precipitation to support rain-fed agriculture. the semi-arid steppe between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Interannual variability in precipitation can exceed 100% and drought years are not uncommon so that crops benefit from . the Khabur River rises in Syria from a series of large karstic springs that provide its principal source (Burdon and Safadi. precipitation averages some 350-400mm. Landsat mosaic of the Khabur River region of northeastern Syria.4-1.210 magnitude of recent changes. 1963). The climate is a modified Mediterranean pattern with all precipitation occurring during the cool winter months and the remainder of the year is hot and dry. developments. but within 50 km to the south of the Turkish border subsistence agriculture is problematic and the situation grows progressively worse the farther south one goes. and then progressively decreases to about 150mm at the Euphrates. The Khabur region is part of the north Mesopotamian Jazirah. With an average flow of 43 m3/s (1. but at the river's source at Ras al Ain in Syria. making it possible to irrigate the river bottom by simple gravity flow canals. The springs ensure a strong perennial flow without high floods. The river flows more than 400 km to its confluence with the Euphrates through land that grows progressively drier from north to south.

For the next three thousand years the plain was sparsely settled and sites generally remained small and were occupied only intermittently. The Khabur is home to diverse ethnic and religious groups and the overall population has increased dramatically since the 1950s. hamlets and farmsteads that dot the countryside. 3 Archaeological History The archaeological history of the Khabur is one of relatively brief episodes of settlement. but only 95.000 residents. as well as pervasive political conflict account for this uneven history. who probably abandoned the region in the summer dry season. the principal towns of Kamishli and Hassakah each had fewer than 15. The first large settlements date to the early fourth millennium BC when sites up to 15 ha in area are known (Hole 2000).3mm in 1963. the Khabur region had no permanent settlements and the land was frequented only by small bands of hunters. Hamoukar. Hole 2002). Apart from agriculture. was in the far eastern part of the plain (Ur 2002). The extremely large cluster of sites around Hamoukar may have been occupied by such people.ARID LAND AGRICULTURE IN SYRIA 211 irrigation even in the wetter regions and it is indispensable in the drier areas.000 years ago. but with the advent of irrigation two cropping seasons has become the norm. as Kurdish tribes did until the border with Turkey was closed. with grain in the winter and cotton or another water intensive cash crop in summer. Modern development of water resources and land usage are driven by the needs of the burgeoning local population and the agricultural policies of the State. separated by a thousand or more years when settlement was sparse (Hole 1997. but modern technology has introduced a new source of potential instability whose outcome is uncertain but troubling (Beaumont 1996).000 and today has 203. When the Near East emerged from the Younger Dryas about 11. dating back to about 7000 BC. for a total that must exceed half a million human residents and an unknown but similarly large number of sheep. Hole 2000. the largest settlement. Still the greater amount . spread out over 100 ha. During the fourth millennium BC.000 residents today. To these totals we must add the smaller towns and thousands of villages.5mm in 1973 (Sanlaville 1990b).000 residents. At Hassakah precipitation was 508.000 in 1960 to182. and many other smaller sites were along the Khabur River and its tributaries. temples and large granaries that were situated on high mounds. landscape. the first agricultural villages. As the climate improved with the Holocene Climatic Optimum. Because of the climate. Changes in precipitation. each lasting several hundred years. Through massive alteration and exploitation of the natural sources of water. the major activity was herding of sheep and goats by people who moved seasonally into the Taurus Mountains to obtain fresh pasture in the summer. were settled close to the flood plain of the Khabur River. while Kamishli has risen from 34. In 1960. Some of the larger towns were walled and enclosed palaces. traditional agriculture depended on fall-sown cereals that ripen in late spring. there is the potential to destroy the longterm viability of a rich. Hassakah had 19. according to the World Gazatteer. During the last years of the French mandate (1940s). The pattern of settlement and intensity of land use changed markedly around 2600 BC when a number of towns and many small hamlets filled up the landscape (Kouchoukos 1998). but fragile.

but only on the lower river itself was there a city. destroying local settlements and irrigation canals and replacing Arab authority with Turkomen and Kurdish tribes (Boghossian 1952). there were no sites on the river itself. Circesium. one on each side of the river. the great Arab geographer. was at the confluence of the Khabur and the Euphrates and a series of small forts and towns outlined the Roman frontier limes (frontier forts) in the northern Jazirah. although demand for wool certainly drove the economic expansion and encouraged exploitation of the steppe where agriculture is risky today (Buccellati 1990. During the Roman period. for settlement had moved away from the river out onto the semi-arid steppe or on tributary stream of the Khabur. Islamic sites are numerous in the Khabur. Poidebard 1934). The prosperity lasted for only about 300 years and it was followed by a prolonged period of intense aridity starting around 2200 BC that resulted in the abandonment of nearly all sites (Weiss 1997). Margueron 1991. Not until the modern era was settlement again as widespread and intensive as in the last half of the third millennium BC. "Ibn . but settlements are rare away from the river which. During the first millennium. Sanlaville 1990a). The Assyrian presence was largely south of Hassakah until the mid 8th century when they conquered the whole of north Mesopotamia. at this time was said to be navigable. other sites were uniformly small. 1990. the city of Guzana. During Assyrian times. and a few of the larger sites on the river (Oates and Oates. two lengthy canals were built. (modern Tell Halaf). To divert the water from the river. In the 14th century. capital of an Aramean kingdom was established at the head of the Khabur. Archaeological survey has documented the limes. 4 Written History Written history for the region begins in the second millennium BC when herds from the city of Mari on the Euphrates were pastured in the upper Khabur and part of the river was diverted into a canal that brought irrigation water to the edge of the Euphrates and also served for barge transportation (Durand 1990a. In the best agricultural zone in the northern part of the plain. In 1248 AD the Mongols invaded the Khabur region. the major settlement. Margueron 1990). By 640 AD the entire Jazirah came under Arab control when their armies defeated the Byzantine forces (Glubb 1963). Hole 1997). Islamic farmers and agro-pastoralists used gravity-flow irrigation in the river flood plain to cultivate summer crops. Some agriculture was carried out along the river itself and texts report ravages by locusts. Assyrian forts and settlements were implanted in the Khabur including the large site of Dur Katlimu near Sheddade on the lower Khabur. dams of earth reinforced with bales of reeds held by rocks were built in the river (Finet 1990). as well as flooding that periodically devastated crops (Van Liere 1963). several large cities developed.212 HOLE AND SMITH of land was used for grazing and after 2500 BC. The upper Khabur district was occupied by transhumant herders who seasonally pastured their sheep on the vast semi-arid steppe. Because of the move to dry areas. to take water toward the city of Mari on the Euphrates (Durand 1990b. and established a continuous agricultural presence along the river. spring-fed wadis or on land with a shallow water table where wells could be dug. generally situated on small. we infer that effective precipitation must have been greater.

Epstein 1940). Kurdish tribes circulated seasonally between the upper Khabur. Along with the Kurdish tribes these groups occupied the best agricultural land along the Turkish border and along the upper Khabur River (Dodge 1940). including Armenian. but within twenty years only 200 families remained. the famous English diplomat-archaeologist. In 1850. a phrase echoed as late as 1880 "no villages. Rowlands 1947). These tribal canals must have been on the floodplain. unlike the long 3rd millennium Durin canal that is on the east bank (Hütteroth 1990). To exploit this potential. These towns also sheltered thousands of Christian and Jewish refugees from Turkey who became shop keepers. the Khabur was an administrative district controlled by Ottoman governors. in the 19th century. used water wheels and short canals to irrigate millet. "in summer the steppes may be afire. the cereal crops "are cut primitively by sickle and threshed by animal labor on the . wheat and barley farmers settled much of the present dry-farming area well south of the current Turkish border. only tents and ruins" (Sachau 1883:296). 5 French Mandate Conditions were chaotic because of ethnic and tribal conflict from the turn of the twentieth century through the First World War. the others having been driven out by the Kurds or by malaria that was pervasive in the region (Dodge 1940. its jungles overflowing with animals of all species. As late as the 1940s. in 1877 some 15. its huge trees providing delicious shade against the brilliant sun. now produce about 80% of Syria's oil and gas. all form a terrestrial paradise" (Layard 1853:235). The French had first to conquer the tribes and then begin a process of pacification and settlement in villages.ARID LAND AGRICULTURE IN SYRIA 213 Batutah found the district already waste and desolate" as a result of tribal depredations (Epstein 1940). Assyrian and Kurdish refuges. When there was peace. when the rainfall is heavy. the Khabur was still essentially "virgin" land. a summer crop (Hütteroth 1992). in some cases. While there must be some exaggeration in this description. ruining the grazing for the flocks. and extended to Mosul in Iraq by 1940. Extensive seeps of petroleum. when the Ottomans were finally driven out. the route's defiles become a well-nigh impassable morass of mud. The 1920-30s saw an influx of people. The principal towns of Kamishli and Hassekah were established as garrisons by the French who finally gained control over the northeastern Khabur in 1930 (Boghossian 1952). but nomadic tribes occupied the region seasonally and. From the 16th until the 20th century. However the pace of change was slow as rebellions against the French and between Christians and Arabs rocked the region during the twenties and thirties. north of the Jebel abd al-Aziz and pastures in the mountains of southern Turkey." Moreover. In the 16th century there were only two villages on the entire lower Khabur (south of the Jebel Abd al-Aziz. the beauty of its flowers. discovered near the Tigris River as early as 1908. although incursions of diverse refugees and Arab tribes often led to chaotic conditions (Pascual 1980). The railroad effectively opened the region to development for the first time. "The richness of its pastures. Austen Henry Layard described the middle Khabur. in winter. a low mountain ridge).000 Circassians settled near Ras al Ain after being expelled from Russia. until the French Mandate that began in 1920. no cities. fleeing oppression in Iraq and Turkey (Boghossian 1952). a railroad between Aleppo and Kamishli was completed by 1928. To move oil and agricultural products. merchants and artisans ( Sarrage 1935.

and rotation of crops is practically unknown. and freed farmers from riverside agriculture and enabled them to cultivate the entire stretch of bottomland and lower terraces along the Khabur from its headwaters to the Euphrates. barely scratching the surface. combine-harvesters could be seen plying the fields next to the hand reapers. There is little incentive to conserve when the cost of irrigation from individual wells is only the cost of extraction and when costs for water drawn from canals is a low annual fee independent of volume or frequency of use. and the expanding needs of the human population in cities and countryside. In 1942/43 there was little pumping from the river. rose. thus precluding cultivation of cotton and other summer crops. With startling rapidity. to the development of reservoirs and canals feeding planned irrigation districts. agricultural cooperatives that lent money for tractors and pumps. In the 1960s. from predominantly riverside irrigation and vast dry-farmed fields in the semi-arid steppe.500 people lived in villages clustered along the upper Khabur River and irrigated 40. The effect of pumping from the river can be seen in the difference between flow at gauging stations Ras al Ain and Tell Tamer. The last two decades have witnessed the most dramatic changes. followed by gleaners" (Rowlands 1947.300 ha of land. mostly for rice and cotton.000 ha under cultivation. to the thousands of isolated farmsteads utilizing ground water far from the river. 1985).100. The cultivation is equally primitive: two oxen dragging light ploughs over the fields. 147-149).000 in 1961 (FAO 1966:334). Under the new Syrian government. Motor pumps became the principal means of extracting water by the early 50s. Further. 17. several changes in land policy were implemented to divide former large holdings and to exploit formerly uncultivated tribal land. the Jaghjagh. In 1961 there were 1241 tractors and 679 combines that worked 1. the extent of agriculture in the lower Khabur essentially matched that of the 10th-13th centuries (Kerbe 1987).000 ha. mostly funded by urban entrepreneurs (Métral 1980). But the 50s are more notable for the rapid and vast extension of cultivation into the semi-arid steppe when urban entrepreneurs invested in tractors to cultivate large tracts of formerly grazing land. 6 Syrian State The region prospered during the Second World War when the value of agricultural crops. whereas between 1954 and 1959 it had become considerable and the flow had dropped some 4 m3 (Burdon and Safadi 1963). especially that of cotton.214 HOLE AND SMITH communal threshing-floors of every village. In 1950. p. However. and subsidies for crops encouraged maximum production (Manners and SagafiNejad. By this time the Jazirah had become the breadbasket of Syria (FAO 1966). In Hassakah province 258 permits for wells had been granted by 1963 and the area of cotton cultivation expanded from 140 ha in 1948 to 150. The steppe could be claimed by plowing it and enormous areas of marginal land were brought under speculative cultivation. the flow of the Khabur diminished until it is now dry during the summer. under the Government monopoly of cereal purchases during the recent war. Water has always been regarded as a common good to be used freely. By the late 40s there were some 400 tractors and 350 combine harvesters in the Jazirah (the steppe between the Euphrates and Tigris rivers) with 715. . Years before. During this time the human population doubled.

Some of these Five Year Plans have been implemented. Three major reservoirs have been completed and are operating. "equivalent to six years discharge at the annual average rate" (Burdon and Safadi. The reservoir to serve this system would have held a billion m3 (Burdon and Safadi 1963:64). leading to plans to build dams and reservoirs and to irrigate new lands (USDA 1980) (Kerbe 1987). All of the reservoirs are shallow and with high evaporation and use for summer irrigation. The authors calculated that if water was provided at the rate of 0. there have been several studies of water resources and agricultural potential of the region. including one near the karstic springs that was filled to its capacity of 1. .900. suffered the same fate owing to the extraction of water for irrigation in its upper stretches. mais semblent techniquement difficiles" (FAO 1966:48). The 7th April and 8th March dams northwest of Hasseke impound some 323 million m3. Indeed it was estimated that heavy extraction of water might increase discharge by decreasing back-pressure on the natural discharge (Burdon and Safadi. has been abandoned in favor of upstream systems. an outcome that was anticipated by an early assessment. near the Tigris River. others have not or have been abandoned as headwater developments have usurped the sources of water. water levels drop rapidly and expose much bare soil to wind erosion. Today this is just a shallow depression filled by winter rains and fed by a small fresh water spring (Mortier and Safadi.000 ha on the south bank. Two reservoirs with combined capacity of 21 million m3 were built in the north central sector (USDA 1980) II-35. 1963:92). Three separate sets of reservoirs were also planned in the Kamishli region of northeastern Syria. another northwest was filled to its capacity of 31 million m3 in 1978 (USDA 1980:I-176).000 ha on either side of the river. as well as water for domestic and agricultural needs as long as people had lived in the region. El-Feidate. These perennial rivers had supplied fish to local markets. II-35). The residual volume of water stored in the aquifers is estimated to be some 7. with about half its annual flow. It was further estimated that pumping from the river could irrigate 16. The Martyr Basil al-Asad dam below Hassakah is to impound some 605 million m3 and irrigate some 50. An FAO-sponsored study described how a diversion weir a short distance below the springs could provide for summer irrigation of 55-60. was thought to be capable of holding 440. 7 “FiveYear” Plans Since the founding of the Syrian State in 1946 at the end of the French Mandate.000 m3 (USDA 1980:I-131. 1963).415 million m3.II-35).ARID LAND AGRICULTURE IN SYRIA 215 the eastern tributary of the Khabur. différents sites de barrages ont étudies. For example. One northeast of the town of Malkieh had a capacity of 50 million m3 (USDA 1980:I-180). the demand for 60. There are also a number of smaller reservoirs. somewhat less than the minimum monthly flow of the river. "sur le Khabour inférieur. 1967).000 m3 in 1978. to provide power and irrigation water. Another planned reservoir. and two small reservoirs were planned near the Tigris River to hold some 8. in most years there would still be sufficient water to use pumps for the fields on the south bank.5 million m3 (USDA 1980:I-179.000 ha would be 30 cubic meters a second.5 liters per second per hectare.000 ha through the use of simple gravity canals on the north bank of the river. the large irrigation district for the lower Khabur that was to have irrigated the land from Sheddade to the Euphrates. If that plan were implemented.

8 Recent Land Use Changes While we have experience in the Khabur on the ground and have witnessed some of the changes over the last 15 years. And they cannot easily determine either the extent or quality of agriculture season by season. Much of this is out of the control of local authorities in Syria who.. to become an indispensable management tool (Beaumont 1996). For example. Note also the increase in Aeolian dust streaks in .216 HOLE AND SMITH The most radical plan for tapping the Khabur was to "drill a large-diameter borehole . Summer cultivation in the lower stretch of the Khabur is absent in 2000. 1963:93).It is realized that complete control could never be established. as well as on annual precipitation (Burdon and Safadi. b. Neither can they readily monitor water extraction in Syria from the thousands of individual wells. therefore. but if the full annual discharge of Ras-el-Ain could be concentrated into the four irrigation months. with nil discharge during the remaining eight months. The unique perspective afforded by satellite imagery has the potential..000 hectares" (Burdon and Safadi. let alone influence. in any case. Since these reservoirs all depend ultimately on surface runoff which supplies the springs. II-33). 1963). The reservoirs have also removed a considerable amount of fertile land that was previously cultivated. Figures 2a. This plan has. in part been implemented through storing the water in the two large reservoirs (USDA 1980:I137. may find it difficult to comprehend the interconnection of factors that impact the water resources. their success depends on upstream diversion of catchments in both Turkey and Syria. water extraction in Turkey. Landsat images of the lower Khabur River (upper right) at its confluence with the Euphrates (lower left) in (a) September 1990 and (b) September 2000. we do not have access to up-to-date figures on implementation and use of the various irrigation schemes. water managers cannot readily know.to tap the aquifers and concentrate all the waters at one controlled point of discharge. then its waters alone could irrigate some 230.

the reservoir is filled. and the northern and central Khabur . and provide their domestic water. Figures 3a. With the exception of the regions marked Hatay and Adana. Today we see a dry river and unused paddies for summer crops. 1990 and 2000. whereas in 2000 it was nearly absent. (b) In 2000 the barley fields are no longer under cultivation. b.) The satellite images give us our best contemporary overview as well as a time series that we can use to quantify changes in cropping patterns and especially in summer irrigation. The border area (C). for the period 1981 until 1998. Farther upstream Figure 3 shows the newly irrigated fields below the new Martyr Basil al-Asad reservoir south of Hassakah. Time series of irrigated area in the Khabur basin are shown in Figure 5a. (See CD for color images. Of particular interest is the relationship between the major Euphrates and its tributary Khabur River. The patterns of very large dry-farmed barley fields are also seen. It is noteworthy that this stretch of the river is the one that was once scheduled to be irrigated by the reservoir near Sheddade. For illustration we show satellite images of two years of summer irrigation. Agricultural patterns at the location of the Martyr Basil al-Asad dam on the Khabur River. This pair of images also shows how land use has changed from very large cultivated barley fields to small irrigated plots. In late summer. A few years before. In Figure 4. This diagram is derived from August values of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. (a) In September 1990 the entire river flood plain is cultivated and some irrigated fields lay to the east. the river was flowing and farmers used diesel pumps to irrigate their fields. the floodplain below the dam is sparsely cultivated. This type of land use change can be quantified on a much larger scale using a time series of AVHRR image datasets.ARID LAND AGRICULTURE IN SYRIA 217 2000. and irrigation agriculture has expanded on the steppe. all the circled regions draw water from the Euphrates or its tributaries. In 1990 there was continuous irrigated agriculture. we identify fifteen areas of intense summer irrigation in northern Syria and southeastern Turkey. caused by the Shamal wind during two dry years. 1999 and 2000. A detail of the lower stretch of the river as it enters the Euphrates is particularly revealing (Figure 2). all dense vegetation is associated with intense irrigation.

600 500 Irrigated Area (km ) 2 400 300 200 100 0 S. we believe. nearly doubling in each case. show dramatic increases. detected using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index.218 HOLE AND SMITH floodplains. AVHRR image of northern Syria showing fifteen regions of intense summer irrigation. ends up no larger than it started seventeen years before. The southern Khabur. . of upstream water use and downstream water shortage. of Turkish Border C North Khabur Central Khabur South Khabur 81 982 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 990 991 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 19 Figure 5a. This reduction is the combined result of three dry years and the extra demand of filling the Sheddade reservoir upstream. while fluctuating slightly. Time series for eight of these regions are shown in Figure 5. All but Hatay and Adana belong to the Euphrates and its tributaries. More recent data (not shown) shows a dramatic reduction in the lower Khabur summer irrigation between 1998 and 2001. Figure 4. This unique “flat” signal is evidence.

more than doubling in seventeen years. The socialist government created a series of Five Year Plans for overall economic and social development. grain silos and a first class road system. (a) Four sections of the Khabur watershed. Area of irrigated agriculture (km2) is estimated from AVHRR data. The result is a landscape that is changing. the 1400km2 irrigated area demands a volume of 1. Should . For comparison. the irrigated area in these four regions rose from about 600 km2 to 1400km2.4 10 9 cubic meters of water. the Balikh and Khabur. downscaled using less frequent Landsat images. These plans gave rise to land reform. the amount of Euphrates flow remaining for the Amara Marsh in southern Iraq (i. b. the so-called “Garden of Eden”) and the Persian Gulf delta is clearly threatened in years of naturally low discharge. the building of reservoir and canal systems. (b) Four sections of the Euphrates watershed. as it strains to sustain its viability under unprecedented stresses. all but the lower Khabur. show large increases over the period from 1981 to 1998. the annual Euphrates discharge is about 35 10 10 9 cubic meters per year.e. perhaps irreversibly. With even larger increases in irrigation seen upstream in Turkey and downstream in Iraq (not shown). most of the potentially productive land has now been transformed. 9 Concluding Remarks The drivers of land use change in the Khabur are many. some planned by the State but others are the result of individual decisions made for economic opportunity. Seven of these regions. and the Euphrates south of Raqqa.ARID LAND AGRICULTURE IN SYRIA 219 600 Balikh Euphrates SE of Raqqa 500 Irrigated Area (km ) 2 NW of Deir Ezzor SE of Deir Ezzor 400 300 200 100 0 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Figures 5a. creation of agricultural cooperatives. economic incentives and subsidies for production. north of Deir Ezzor and south of Deir Ezzor. If a single cotton or vegetable crop grown in the hot summer sun requires a meter of water depth. The time series of floodplain irrigation along the main Euphrates is also of interest (Figure 5b). While production has never met the ambitious goals set in these plans. From the standpoint of land use the most important of these was to increase agricultural productivity to accommodate a rapidly growing and increasingly affluent population. Time series of flood plain agriculture in the Euphrates and its Syrian tributaries. In total. The impact of this increase is easy to appreciate. Large steady increases are seen in all four regions shown: the Balikh.

or because of prolonged natural changes in precipitation. the residents of the Khabur in Syria are at the mercy of their own manipulations. In such a case the Khabur might become merely a drain. however. as monitored by satellite. As we watch the inexorable changes we wonder whether another "tragedy of the commons" may be taking place. He reckoned that within twenty years when ground water equilibrium had been established on these newly irrigated lands. the runoff from these fields might double the flow of the river in Syria. The problem is worsened by the fact that the ultimate sources of river and ground water lie in Turkey where intensive exploitation of these sources impacts both the quantity and quality of water that enters Syria. but continued intensive use of these fragile lands may ultimately perpetuate and perhaps worsen the degradation. The sources of the Khabur River. For the government and entrepreneurs. augmented with "unnatural" flow from Turkey whose quality and effects could ultimately affect many more than just those already displaced along the former river channel. those of the Turks. there is no "free" land to use or move to so that the principal coping mechanisms for a family are to tighten their belts and seek wage labor. The inevitable degradation of productivity may be deferred. It is not clear that there is either the technical knowledge or the political will to manage these elements toward the end of sustainability for all parties. if Beaumont's predictions hold. Beaumont anticipated problems that might arise in the Khabur as a result of the importation of water from the Ataturk Dam in Turkey to support irrigation in the Turkish upper Khabur agricultural district (Beaumont 1996). . People practicing subsistence agriculture and animal husbandry had sufficient "vacant" land to draw upon in emergency. it is to intensify production through the building of reservoirs and canals. Under present circumstances. From the perspective of space we have a unique ability to monitor changes across the entire watershed. above) capacity if and when some parts fail.yale. laden with salt and fertilizer. the drilling of wells. Benjamin Zaitchik carried out the image analysis in the Center for Earth Observation. The situation. These measures may alleviate the problem today. has not reached that point but the future remains in doubt. The question now facing authorities is how to manage a fragile system that may be running at (or worse. This research was supported by NASA NAG5-9316. In a worst case this would destroy agriculture in the Syrian Khabur and perhaps impact the Euphrates through increased salinization and eutrophication. and eliminating fallow while planting in both winter and summer. with predictable potential for conflict. long regarded as a "common" for all to use have been usurped by diverting their natural flow and. Acknowledgments.ceo/swap. flexibility has traditionally provided sustainability. A Digital Atlas of photographs of the region can be seen at www. either through unwise overexploitation. by use of more efficient methods that use less water (FAO 1966). or they retained mobility to travel temporarily to better pastures. Thus. In the arid Near East.edu. and of the vagaries of weather.220 HOLE AND SMITH the systems now in place fail. the human toll will be great and may lead to further internal displacement of populations.

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urban commodity demands affect natural resource flows. or enveloped by. towns. USA 3 Department of Geography & Center for Environmental Science and Policy. Every aspect of the urbanization process. Boston University. KAUFMANN3 Center for Environmental Science and Policy. is becoming increasingly urban. Urban development can offer opportunities for concentrated and efficient land use. urbanization does not have only negative impacts. SETO1. Institute for International Studies. ranging from the provision of social welfare programs to the construction of transportation infrastructure. USA 1 1 Introduction Over the last two decades. inadequate waste disposal. Stanford University. This urban revolution has profound environmental impacts. global average annual rates of growth ranged between 2 and 3 percent. urban remittances contribute to growth in distant regions. Stanford. and villages are being converted into. CURTIS E. Yet while the physical and economic landscapes have become more intertwined. The dramatic urban land-use changes in China have been fueled by economic reforms that lead to impressive economic growth through the 1980s and 1990s. of the 488 major urban areas in the world. and rapid spread of infectious diseases. According to recent figures. extended metropolitan regions. urbanization can also lead to better living conditions and improvements in well-being through wider availability of health care. and advances in sanitation. Natural ecosystems. farms. land-use changes in China have been dominated by an urban transformation unprecedented in human history. CA 94305-6055 USA 2 Department of Geography & Center for Remote Sensing. Similarly. However. stress on food production systems. During these two decades. urban changes are 223 G. better education services. progress in environmental quality. nearly one-quarter are located in China. while the Chinese economy grew at breathtaking rates of 10 percent and greater (World Bank 2000). Urbanization can also lead to poor housing conditions. The overwhelming success of the reforms has led to urban changes unparalleled anywhere on Earth. Land Change Science. respectively. From a socioeconomic perspective. Printed in the Netherlands. . The Chinese landscape. 223–236. CHINA KAREN C. including local and regional climate change. © 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. loss of wildlife habitat and biodiversity. access to reliable energy supplies.). rangelands. WOODCOCK2. physical demarcations between country and city are blurring as areas distant from city centers become absorbed into the sphere of the urban economy. which for thousands of years was mainly rural. ROBERT K. China’s urban population is predicted to increase by more than the total population of the United States in the next 25 years (United Nations 2001).CHAPTER 13 CHANGES IN LAND COVER AND LAND USE IN THE PEARL RIVER DELTA. Gutman et al. (eds. presents huge environmental and socioeconomic challenges. and pressure on water resources. and resources for solid and waste water treatment. Boston University. Furthermore. Urban changes have led to a greater integration of rural and urban economies: farmers adjust crop types to satisfy urban food demand.

is a significant component of global environmental change. The family structure also is changing. monitoring the spatial and temporal patterns of land use. The effects of urban land-use change on socioeconomic and ecological systems are complex. with fewer extended members residing in a single household. The Pearl River Delta. The summers are hot and humid. which is more than twice the provincial average. WOODCOCK AND KAUFMANN causing other striking differences in society: cities are populated by a disproportionate number of young people whereas countryside villages house mainly the aged. and evaluating the social and ecological impacts for the period 1988 to 1996. Figure 1. the climate of the Delta is characterized by a dry season from November through April.C. This chapter synthesizes research in the Pearl River Delta that focused on identifying patterns of land-use change. China Between 1985 and 1997. Located in the southern province of Guangdong. The rich red . and yet the drivers of these changes are not well understood. urban population in the Delta increased by 68 percent while agricultural population increased by only 9 percent (Statistical Bureau of Guangdong various years). developing empirical models of the macrolevel drivers of these changes. and identifying the key variables that influence land-use changes are critical elements of global change research. Many of the industrial and export-oriented cities rely on young female migrant workers. and has a strong agricultural history of rice and sugarcane production. as are the factors that influence urban land use. and the region has a population density of 850 persons per square kilometer. Land-use change. Therefore. and temperatures in July and August sometimes soar to 38˚C. The region has been settled since the Zhou Dynasty (1027-221 B.). who often move hundreds if not thousands of miles from their hometowns.224 SETO. further biasing the local sex ratio in a society with a strong preference for sons. 2 The Pearl River Delta The Pearl River (Zhujiang) Delta (PRD) is one of the most economically vibrant regions in China (Figure 1). The Delta’s 21 million residents comprise one-third of the total population of the province. and a rainy season from May through October. Guangdong Province. and in particular urban change.

1995). Hong Kong entrepreneurs began to move their operations across the border. First. After the SEZs and the PRD Open Region were established. helped the Delta to attract foreign investment and transform itself into an export-oriented region (Chu 1998. economic development. decentralization policies allowed provincial and local governments more autonomy from the central government to devise and implement their own development strategies. The household registration system. the establishment of three special economic zones (SEZs) in the 1980s. the region benefited from national reform policies in the agricultural sector. and the formation of the Pearl River Delta Economic Open Region in 1985. The remarkable economic growth and accompanying changes in land use in the PRD can be attributed to seven major factors. TVEs diversified considerably into other sectors and their relative freedom from bureaucratic controls and low labor costs made them attractive partners for foreign investment (Putterman 1997). first into Shenzhen. Second. health care. while the work unit. and the natural vegetation is dominated by pines and acacias. determined the residency status of an individual. the role of Hong Kong as a catalyst for economic and urban development in the PRD needs to be underscored. . price reform and the elimination of collective farming in favor of the “household responsibility system” lead to an increase in prices for agricultural outputs and allowed agricultural decisions to be made by the household rather than the commune or production brigade. China had two policies that effectively limited population mobility. and evolved into one of the pillars of economic growth. These overseas ventures had a considerable impact on the pace and structure of economic and urban development (Eng 1997). Finally. 2001). land reform in 1988 allowed the transfer of land-use rights through negotiation. and eventually throughout the Delta. Smart and Smart. and Zhuhai. and land use. hukou. Shenzhen. TVEs were initially agricultural collectives that produced agricultural-related goods. was an important provider of basic goods and services such as housing. all land in China belonged to the state and was managed by brigades and collectives. One result of the land reform is that individuals and collectives can rent or lease their land to foreign and local ventures. food ration tickets. The geographic proximity and cultural ties to Hong Kong provides the PRD with large investment inflows. before 1978. Fifth. especially from rural to urban areas. Prior to the land reform. With the availability of surplus rural laborers. Beginning in the late 1970s.. the hukou and danwei were powerful forces to control urbanization and internal migration. auction. This allowed the creation of different incentive structures and policies to stimulate investment. Sixth. The net effect was that crop yields increased and a surplus of agricultural workers became available for other sectors of the economy. Reforms have since relaxed the hukou and reduced the importance of the danwei (Mallee 1996. Fourth. and managerial acumen. Together.LAND COVER/LAND USE CHANGE IN THE PEARL RIVER DELTA 225 alluvial soils support two to three crops per year. Lin 1997). and education. the central government initiated a series of sweeping reforms beginning in 1978 that included the promotion of township and village enterprises (TVEs). danwei. access to technological innovations. Shantou. The bulk of foreign direct investments in the PRD (nearly 75 percent in 1996) come from Hong Kong. or bid (Sharkawy et al. Third.

226 SETO. The remote sensing analysis includes the tail end of this period (Figure 2).. natural vegetation. nearly 7 percent of the PRD. The techniques tested and their relative successes are provided elsewhere in the literature and will not be repeated here (Kaufmann and Seto. or 2625 km2. Song et al. and the key drivers and impacts of these changes. was marked by slow urban growth. Seto et al. the 1980s. New urban development by year for selected counties. During the period 1988 to 1996. 2001.. The first period. Promotion of town and village enterprises (TVEs) during this time turned towns into economic and industrial engines. In 1988. By 1996. and atmospheric differences. WOODCOCK AND KAUFMANN 3 Land Cover and Land Use Changes Land-cover and land-use change trajectories were developed with Landsat TM data acquired annually from 1988 to 1996. but this had relatively little effect on extensive urban land-use change. the most dramatic land-use change is the growth of urban areas. seasonal. was converted to urban uses from agriculture. 2002. there were only 720 km2 of urban land. or 1905 km2.1 CHANGES IN URBAN AREAS By far. or water. What follows is a discussion of the primary land-cover and land-use changes in the Delta during the period 1988 to 1996. and to calibrate the images for sensor. 250 200 150 2 km 100 50 0 88-89 89-90 90-91 91-92 Period 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 Nanhai Dongguan Panyu Shunde Shenzhen Guangzhou . 2001). urban areas constituted 10 percent of the PRD. Figure 2. Changes in policy gave rise to three periods of urban development during the 1980s and 1990s. Foreign investments played a part in promoting TVEs and the expansion of towns and villages. A number of methodologies were tested to assess land-cover and land-use change. but these were on a relatively small scale. 3.

For some counties such as Dongguan and Shenzhen. the provincial capital. 18000 300 16000 250 14000 Number of New Contracts Foreign Investment Used (100 million USD) 12000 200 10000 150 8000 6000 100 4000 50 2000 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Year New Foreign Investment Contracts Foreign Investment Utilized 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 The first two periods of urban development laid the foundation for future growth. there was less of a boomtown atmosphere than during the previous two periods. Foreign investments in the Pearl River Delta Open Economic Zone. These periods were characterized by seemingly chaotic patterns of urban expansion. with investments centered in the SEZs and the major cities in the GuangzhouShenzhen corridor. which often were determined by the construction of new transportation networks. most of the urban land-use changes occurred during 1992-1993. . Figure 3. Although little of the development during this phase was planned or regulated. investments moved geographically south of Guangzhou. After his visit to the region and affirmation of the government’s commitment to open door policies. 1988-1997. investments more than tripled the following year. In the third phase of urban development. and intermediate-sized cities grew rapidly throughout the region (Figure 4). ushering in the second period of development: large-scale urban land-use change driven by foreign investment.LAND COVER/LAND USE CHANGE IN THE PEARL RIVER DELTA 227 The Tiananmen Square incident in 1989 cast a shadow over the investment environment until Deng Xiaopeng’s southern China tour in January 1992 (Figure 3).

the economic and political centers of gravity continue to shift in coordination with urban land-use change. WOODCOCK AND KAUFMANN Figure 4. located south of Shenzhen. has transformed into a major metropolitan area that rivals Hong Kong (Figure 5). which was once a quiet fishing community. The two primary cities and regional powerhouses were once Guangzhou and Hong Kong. but their industrial and economic influence has declined over the years. Shenzhen. 1988-1996 One striking characteristic of urban land-use change in the Delta is the near absence of higher-level regional planning from the provincial or state offices. For example. As the greater Delta transforms into a large urban cluster. Land-Use Changes in the Pearl River Delta.228 SETO. . The uncoordinated activities of multiple interests have generated urban land-use change that shifted the influence of major cities. What appears to be an unorganized mélange of disparate aims is strongly impacted by socialpolitical networks and economic interests.

residential. living space increased for all residents (Table 3). and industrial development.9 1997 10. the increase in agricultural wages.LAND COVER/LAND USE CHANGE IN THE PEARL RIVER DELTA Figure 5. per capita living space for urban residents nearly doubled. and American-style villas are increasingly more popular (Figure 6). Average per capita residential floor space for selected cities (m2) Guangzhou Shenzhen Dongguan Foshan 1988 8. Urban development in Shenzhen. the quantity of housing stock increased for city residents (Table 2). and land cleared for future urban development. 1997. the number of motor vehicles increased by 259 percent and the length of highways increased by two-thirds (Table 1). commercial. Although the remote sensing analysis does not differentiate among types of structures. During the study period. Table 2. Increased incomes also have resulted in greater private vehicle ownership and a higher demand for highways.71 15. Express highways crisscross the Delta. facilitating transportation and delivery of goods to markets and ports. In general.27 24.22 23. As a result of economic development and rises in income.61 13.6 10.85 Source: Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong. the ability to contract out farming. Main indicators of transportation services Length of highways (km) Number of motor vehicles 1988 53 820 324 195 1990 54 671 402 086 1995 84 563 1 147 348 1996 89 631 1 163 339 Source: Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong. . This trend is not limited to cities.77 1996 10. official statistics suggest that residential housing construction comprises a significant portion of the new urban space. Between 1985 and 1996.78 19.58 14. rural Hong Kong across the river 229 Photo: K. 1997.58 18. In rural areas. Seto New urban growth includes highways. Housing conditions also have improved dramatically. and the leasing of agricultural land all contributed to the growth in rural incomes and an increase by 50 percent in per capita living space between 1985 and 1996. Table 1.08 14.

New housing development in the Pearl River Delta Photo: K.83 1996 16.97 22. and factories has lead to the conversion of agricultural land on a large-scale. Agricultural land loss from the remote sensing analysis is about 11 percent greater than the figures reported in statistical yearbooks (Figure 7). improvement of houses owned by farmers and agricultural workers also reduces the amount of land available for agriculture. Remote sensing-based estimates of total agricultural land and agricultural land loss differed from figures reported in statistical yearbooks (Seto et al. Figure 6. 1997. reservoirs and dikes have been constructed to provide the booming region with an adequate water supply. With increases in water demand by the residential and industrial sectors. Even with this potential bias. The construction of industrial centers. Four major types of agricultural land conversion have occurred.. Seto 3. On a smaller scale.39 1995 16. and other land uses which co-exist with agriculture.13 17. small houses. and total amount of agricultural land is about 115 percent greater than official numbers. there are reasons to believe that the total amount of agricultural land was systematically underreported by . 2000).87 1990 12.230 SETO.55 14. residential complexes. although this constitutes less than 1 percent of the total study area (16 km2). A total of 1392 km2 of agricultural land – an area the size of San Francisco or Madrid – were converted to non-agricultural uses during the study period. dirt paths. WOODCOCK AND KAUFMANN Table 3. Average per capita residential floor space of urban/rural residents (m2) Urban Rural 1985 8.2 CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL AREAS The increase in urban areas has been mainly from the conversion of agricultural land. highway development has divided agricultural plots and removed them from cultivation.32 Source: Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong. Third. A majority of the agricultural plots that have been converted are the most productive—they are in the fertile mouth of the delta. The higher estimates of loss of farmland may be in part due to the coarse resolution of the Landsat data which cannot differentiate among irrigation ditches.24 20. The fourth type of agricultural land conversion is the flooding of fields for water reservoirs and dams.

Farmers now produce crops for urban diet. 2000. The loss of agricultural land has given rise to urban agriculture. Urban agriculture is engaged in by locals and by cash-strapped migrants who till roadsides and small agricultural patches as a means to provide food. 1990-1996 300 250 200 2 km 150 100 50 Panyu Shenzhen County Official estimates Satellite derived estimates Source: Seto et al. in the coastal county of Panyu. variations in agricultural crop production and land markets among counties may explain some of the differences in the figures of farmland conversion. mainly in the western region of the Delta. Furthermore. and reducing fallow periods. in Dongguan.. but in general. which is now commonplace throughout the delta. This increase offsets about 11 percent of the loss in agricultural land converted for urban uses. For example. Guangzhou Foshan Shunde Zengcheng Dongguan Huadu Sanshui Nanhai 0 . Agricultural land loss for selected counties. and respond quickly to market signals. Conversely. approximately 151 km2 of the Delta’s water areas were converted to farmland. grain yields and market value of agriculture have increased (Table 4). Figure 7. Total amount of cropland has decreased. a government program to reclaim the delta for agricultural production may provide incentives for over reporting of agricultural land loss. During the study period. irrigation. The loss of agricultural land has been partly mitigated by this cropland expansion into the mouth of the delta as well as by agricultural intensification through increasing fertilizer use. restrictions on farmland conversion may provide incentives for underreporting agricultural land loss.LAND COVER/LAND USE CHANGE IN THE PEARL RIVER DELTA 231 farmers due to institutional factors such as the tax system and historical grain quotas. where lychees are important sources of agricultural income for the county government.

patches of forests.541.800 347 762. and the Chinese Academy of Forestry has engaged in collaborative reforestation projects with international organizations.800 271. The land-cover changes within the Delta were mainly the conversion of shrubs.900 955. Sown area. Most of the intact large tracts of forests are located in the mountainous regions north of the Delta’s basin.600 Zhongshan 1.646.232 SETO.400 Foshan 2.859 257.782.3 CHANGES IN NATURAL VEGETATION The Delta’s long history of agriculture and human settlement suggests that extensive deforestation occurred well before the current period of economic development. Acacia and native Chinese pine.100 334 1.158. .054. WOODCOCK AND KAUFMANN Table 4.262.458 1.900 Jiangmen 4.900 Jiangmen 4.469 1.700 397 531. Soil erosion has become prevalent in the Delta.900 276 71.676 465. Especially prevalent is Acacia mangium which is tolerant of poor soils and has grown successfully under similar conditions in other tropical environments (Figure 8).700 Shenzhen 281. yield.800 402 520.900 269 75.300 2.900 340 1. 15 mu = 1 ha 2Kilogram per mu 3 Metric Tons 51.500 Foshan 2.600 Dongguan 1.50 Total 0 Guangzhou 3.500 390 448.291.586 242.00 Total 0 Guangzhou 33.698.151.499 3.894 441.2 million hectares of forest in the Delta.293.729. Urban development has lead to the quarrying of hills for construction inputs.8914.700 Shenzhen 259.284 1.088.600 311 1.886 559.300 All Grain Crops Province 55.982.871 4.456 1.090 369 368 339 387 355 372 370 400 376 306 401 375 381 372 992.900 2.663.000 Zhongshan 1.20.600 315 14.700 Rice Province 46.494.108.372 19.085 3.367. Plantation efforts have focused on fast growing species of Eucalyptus. A study of the changes in topography might conclude that the region has become more leveled over the last two decades as a result of quarrying and new construction. The ninth five-year plan includes increasing forest coverage by planting 1.573 5. which has caused widespread soil erosion. 1997 and 1989.095.200.778 1.801 224. and hills. and total output of selected crops for select cities Sown Area1 1988 Yield2 1996 Yield Total Output3 Sown Area Total Output 1.440.563 16.400 373 460.253.925 691.600 356 747.341.700 Dongguan 1.236.432 6. 1 In mu.500 298 1.200. Approximately 529 km2 of the Delta were converted from natural vegetation or water to urban uses.338.700 Source: Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong.366.210 734.200.448 626.900 292 16.148.075 40.

Higher incomes have fuelled a shift from agricultural to non-agricultural livelihoods. cropland will be converted to industrial uses.4 DRIVERS OF LAND-USE CHANGE Land-use change is a complex function of factors that interact at multiple temporal and spatial scales. This rise may further provide incentives to build residential and commercial complexes which are funded by overseas investors. 2003). and luxury restaurants. higher incomes increase local demand for shopping arcades. Therefore. and that there are different underlying dynamics (Seto and Kaufmann. Similarly. The analysis suggests that the causes of land-use change have multiple feedbacks that include income growth.LAND COVER/LAND USE CHANGE IN THE PEARL RIVER DELTA 233 Figure 8. township and village governments have been agents of urbanization within their levels of jurisdiction by facilitating development of town village enterprises in the region and by endorsing local efforts to cluster privately-owned firms through the development of industrial estates and technology corridors. This fragmentation discourages economies of scale and prevents some farmers from cultivating cash crops that requires a larger continuous tract of cropland. there is very little incentive to keep land under cultivation. whose incomes rise as a result. Results from empirical models suggest that a myriad of factors affect the conversion of cropland and forests. cars. consumer demand. When farmers can make more money from renting out or leasing their land. Large projects employ numerous local workers. Investments from abroad generally fuel large-scale projects while domestic investment sources generally fund small or medium-scale projects. If the economic return to land used for manufacturing is greater than the economic return to land used for farming. Woodcock 3. As disposable incomes rise. workers may improve their housing conditions by constructing new homes or refurbishing their existing homes. The results indicate that . there is a positive feedback loop between investments and land conversion. and population migration. Poor economic returns to agricultural land could be in part due to the household responsibility system which divided land into plots based on family size. One of the major factors associated with land conversion is investments. In many towns. The ratio of agricultural land productivity and industrial land productivity is one of the key variables that cause the conversion of both natural ecosystems and agricultural land. Another reason for the conversion of agricultural land to non-agricultural uses is the difference in farm wages versus fees from leases. Reforestation projects to combat soil erosion Photo: C.

and in particular the loss of cropland.5 percent decline in annual NPP is a measure of the reduction in total photosynthetic capacity and carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial ecosystems.2 813. and that local land users do not have much influence over large-scale projects. in review).7 -10. Effects of Land Use Change on NPP Land Class NPP (t C ha-1 yr-1) 9.3 x 106 t C. such as international capital movements.6 Mt 40% 6026 Mt 20% 0% Global PRD Fossil Fuels (1996) Land-Use Change (1988-1996 avg.3 7.9 Net Change in NPPtot for 1988-1996 (% change) (104 t C yr-1) -70.5%).5 BIOPHYSICAL IMPACTS OF CHANGES Land-use and land-cover changes in the PRD have affected two key components of the terrestrial carbon cycle.8 1177. . More than half of this reduction is due to the conversion of agricultural land (Table 5).. Land-use change. net primary production (NPP) and the carbon stock. it is likely that carbon sources from land-use change will continue to be overshadowed by fossil fuel emissions.3 Mt 80% 5050 Mt Carbon Emissions (normalized) 60% 16. WOODCOCK AND KAUFMANN urbanization in the Pearl River Delta has been caused largely by exogenous factors.5 Natural vegetation Agriculture Total Source: (Dye et al..8 -155.5 2061.) Adapted from (Dye et al.3 728.4 -5. Analysis of NPP indicates that terrestrial changes during the study period reduced the amount of annual atmospheric carbon assimilated into phytomass by approximately 1. 3.55 Mt (-7. 2000). Given the region’s land use and development trajectory. caused significant modifications to the regional carbon budget by reducing the annual NPP and the size of the terrestrial carbon reservoir (Dye et al.4 -7. Comparison of carbon emissions from land-use change and fossil fuels 100% 1. Table 5. The average estimate of annual carbon released due to land-use and land-cover change is 1.6 -84. The 7. it only represents 8 percent of the emissions from fossil fuels for 1996.7 1905. 2000).6 Regional Total (NPPtot) (104 t C yr-1) 1988 1996 1247. with a total of 11.7 x 106 t C for the entire study period (Figure 9). Figure 9.234 SETO. While this is not an insignificant amount.

. C. C. G. Chen. the Delta’s urban land increased to over 2625 km2 by 1996. Hinchliffe. 2002. Mallee. Seto. and Smart. Urban areas now comprise almost 10 percent of the Delta. Modeling the drivers of urban land use change in the Pearl River Delta. E. and Woodcock. Putterman. D.. R. 5 References Chu. 1639-1655. D. R. K. One of the most noticeable effects of land-use change is the improvement in living standards and human well-being. Woodcock.. K.. Chu (Hong Kong: Chinese University Press). Much of the land-use change is conversion from agriculture and natural vegetation to urban areas. K. T. in much of China. I. Red Capitalism in South China: Growth and Development of the Pearl River Delta (Vancouver: UBC Press).M. similar patterns will persist as the country continues to grow economically.. H. C. K. J. Hinchliffe. T. K. C.. C. Effects of recent land use change on the carbon cycle in southern China. 2000. 554568. R.. Journal of Real Estate Literature. A transformed economy has changed the physical landscape at a rate and level unprecedented in the history of the country.. Change detection. 2000. 3. K. On the past and future of China's township and village-owned enterprises.. E. 21st Asian Conference on Remote Sensing. Lu. 25. 106-121. Chinese Sociology and Anthropology. X.. Taipei. and Kaufmann. X. pp.Y. Y. 406. 1998. A. C. Dye.. E. 47-59.. A. Ecosystems and Environment. 85. Although urban growth in the Delta has been impressive during the study period. M. A. 1996. Modeling the effects of recent land use change on the carbon cycle in the Zhu Jiang Delta Region of Southern China. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research. Seto. China: Integrating remote sensing with socioeconomic data. Sharkawy. 79. 597-602. or 2. G. most were converted from farmland. C.67 percent of the study area. Huang . C. Asian Journal of Geoinformatics. and Pretorious. Kaufmann. and Woodcock. Reform of the Hukou system: Introduction. 21. 95-105. Synthesis of economic reforms and open policy.. and Kaufmann.. Indeed. . The rise of manufacturing towns: externally driven industrialization and urban development in the Pearl River Delta of China. C. World Development.. Local citizenship: welfare reform urban/rural status.. 1997.. China: econometric techniques.K. G. Agriculture. While roughly one-quarter of the new urban areas were previously natural vegetation or water. edited by Y. approximately 1376 km2. K. Kaufmann. 3-14. Taiwan.LAND COVER/LAND USE CHANGE IN THE PEARL RIVER DELTA 235 4 Conclusions Human activity has changed the face of Earth.. Spatial trends of urban development in China. In: Guangdong: Survey of a province undergoing rapid change. pp 485-504. Environment and Planning. 1995. From an estimated 720 km2 of urban area in 1988. in review. the region is in nascent stages of urban development. 1997. E. International Journal of Remote Sensing. K.. Seto. L. 2003. Eng. S. continued land conversion is expected in the next several decades until the region reaches an economic or development plateau. accuracy. 33. Landsat reveals China’s farmland reserves. C. Because land-use change is closely correlated with investments and economic development. Dye. 1997. C. 29. Song. Yeung and D. and bias in a sequential analysis of Landsat imagery in the Pearl River Delta. but they’re vanishing fast. Nature. 2001. J. K. Lin. and Seto. 23. Smart. C. Land Economics. F. R. and Woodcock.. D.. 1853-1869. 121. 2001. 1985-2004. and exclusion in China. Monitoring Land-Use Change in the Pearl River Delta Using Landsat TM. and nowhere is this more evident than in the Pearl River Delta.

and Macomber. Woodcock. C.C.. A. Pax Lenney. Statistical Bureau of Guangdong. Classification and change detection using Landsat TM data: When and how to correct atmospheric effects? Remote Sensing of Environment. World Bank. World Bank. Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong (Beijing: China Statistical Publishing House). Washington.. M. Seto. United Nations. . various years. 230-244. World Development Indicators. WOODCOCK AND KAUFMANN Song. K.. World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision (New York). 75. C. D. E. C. 2000.236 SETO.. S. 2001. 2001.

usually attributed to the enhancement of growth through environmental changes (for example. CH-3012 Bern. gasner@globalecology. The evidence is more compelling for northern mid-latitude lands than it is for the tropics. Changes in land use may also lead to terrestrial C sinks through the regrowth of forests following agricultural abandonment or harvest. have created a sink in the northern mid-latitudes. such as CO2 fertilization.A. 260 Panama Street. Switzerland joos@climate. Land Change Science. A number of approaches. but they generally fail to distinguish possible mechanisms. FORTUNAT JOOS2.stanford. The mechanisms thought to be responsible for the terrestrial sink have included factors that enhance growth. CO2 fertilization. Carnegie Institution. both top-down and bottom-up. climatic change). nitrogen deposition. 237–256.). We explore whether management (generally not considered in analyses of land-use change).ch 3 Department of Global Ecology. . (eds. HOUGHTON1. In contrast. and the differential effects of climate variability on photosynthesis and growth relative to respiration and decay. A comparison of the flux calculated from land-use change with estimates of the changes in terrestrial C storage defines a residual terrestrial C sink flux of up to 3 PgC yr-1. Changes in land use alone might explain the entire terrestrial sink if changes in management practices. Woods Hole. instead of environmental changes. that is.CHAPTER 14 THE EFFECTS OF LAND USE AND MANAGEMENT ON THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE R. MA 02543 rhoughton@whrc. We are unable to answer the question definitively. calculations of C-fluxes based on landuse statistics yield both an estimate of flux and its attribution.edu Abstract Major uncertainties in the global carbon (C) balance and in projections of atmospheric CO2 include the magnitude of the net flux of C between the atmosphere and land and the mechanisms responsible for that flux. Gutman et al. 1 Introduction Several lines of evidence suggest that terrestrial ecosystems have been a net sink for carbon (C) in recent years. but the net effect of land-use change is estimated to have released C globally 237 G. 5. not considered in analyses of land-use change. increased availability of N. Physics Institute. © 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. CA 94305. Printed in the Netherlands. Stanford. have been used to estimate the net terrestrial C flux.unibe. University of Bern Sidlerstr. but a number of analyses suggest a terrestrial C sink in the tropics as well.org 2 Climate and Environmental Physics. Large uncertainties in estimates of terrestrial C fluxes from top-down analyses and land-use statistics prevent any firm conclusion for the tropics. land-use change. ASNER3 1 Woods Hole Research Center. might account for the residual sink flux. GREGORY P.

2000) and the atmospheric change from direct atmospheric measurements or from ice core data. In the global top-down approaches. The recent analysis by Caspersen et al. The partitioning between the terrestrial and oceanic sink is determined from additional information. 2002). in press). Horizontal exchange between regions must be taken into account to estimate regional and global changes in oceanic and terrestrial storage. 2001) reported an average net sink during the 1990s of 1. (2000) suggests that 98% of the C accumulation in trees in five eastern U. the regional inverse method yields C-fluxes between the land or ocean surface and the atmosphere. 2000.7) PgC yr-1 for the world’s terrestrial ecosystems. thus.. 2001). In other global methods.4 (+0. and only 2% may be attributed to enhanced growth. These C-fluxes include both natural and anthropogenic components. We explore in this paper whether the results from analyses of land-use change are consistent with other observationally-based estimates of the terrestrial C fluxes.. 2 Methods for Evaluation of the Terrestrial Flux of Carbon Both top-down approaches based on atmospheric observations and bottom-up approaches based on terrestrial data have been used to estimate C-fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. The global budget equations for atmospheric CO2 and O2 (Keeling et al. The recent IPCC assessment (Prentice et al. 2002). the change in terrestrial storage is calculated by difference from the atmospheric C balance. oceanic and terrestrial C storage equals fossil C emissions. a basic assumption is that the change in atmospheric.. are calculated. 2000) or for CO2 and 13CO2 (Joos and Bruno. identical to the average obtained from global approaches (Prentice et al. Gruber and Keeling.S. 1992. Bruno and Joos. McNeil et al. the oceanic sink is estimated from oceanic tracer distributions (Quay et al. Takahashi et al.4 (+0.. Battle et al. 1998. states can be explained by the age structure of the forests (that is... 1999. changes in C storage. Heimann and Meier-Reimer. Bousquet et al.. The review is similar to a recent comparison of methods used to estimate terrestrial sources and sinks of C (House et al. that is in the oceanic and terrestrial C sink. 2001) are solved for changes in terrestrial and oceanic C storage. Guerney et al.. it would have important implications for the future of the terrestrial C-sink. In a second top-down approach. the fluxes will not accurately reflect changes in the amount of C on land or in the sea if some of the C fixed by terrestrial plants is . 2003) or by applying an ocean model (Siegenthaler and Oeschger. In global top-down approaches... 1997). If environmental growth enhancement were negligible..8) PgC yr-1 for the period 1992-1996 (Gurney et al.. Globally. 1996. does not explain the net terrestrial sink. 1987. Keeling et al. In contrast. Then. 2002. the world’s terrestrial regions summed to a net sink of 1. but the emphasis here is on changes in land use. For example. 1996. Results of this regional inverse approach depend on the transport model and the way boundary conditions are prescribed (Guerney et al. regrowth).238 HOUGHTON. Fossil emissions are known from trade statistics (Marland et al. An important distinction exists between global and regional inverse approaches... JOOS AND ASNER and. regional surface C fluxes are estimated from the observed spatial gradients in the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 (sometimes including the distribution of 13CO2 and global O2 as well) in combination with an atmospheric transport model (Rayner et al. 2002). 2001. such as the observed trend in atmospheric O2 or 13CO2.

However. in some analyses. 2002) and analyses of land-use change (Houghton.7 PgC yr-1 was recently reported for the northern mid-latitude forests (Goodale et al. one would have expected the oceans to take up more. compared to the net sink found by other analyses. but only those that have been cleared. Tans et al. terrestrial ecosystems. A second bottom-up approach estimates the flux of C associated with changes in land use.7) PgC yr-1 for the 1990s (Prentice et al.1 THE CURRENT (1990s) GLOBAL CARBON BALANCE According to the latest IPCC assessment. globally. The approach does not consider all lands. and similar comparisons are not possible there. The net effect of deforestation. cultivation.. 2001). planted. Aumont et al. long-term measurements on a small number of permanent plots in tropical forests suggest that undisturbed forests may be functioning as a large C sink (Phillips et al. 3 Do Changes in Land Use Explain Net Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon? The source of C from land-use change. cultivated.7) PgC yr-1 in the 1980s and 1. 1998). and wood products) that accompany a change in land use. 1995. These analyses are based on rates of land-use change and the changes in C storage (in living and dead vegetation.. .6-0. and soils yield C budgets for the forests of northern mid-latitudes.2 (+0. 2001).. This result is discussed in more detail below. Unfortunately. A net sink of 0. The partitioning of the C sink between land and ocean was based on recent atmospheric CO2 and O2 data and included a small correction for the outgassing of O2 from the oceans (Prentice et al. were a net sink for C. most of the sink estimates need adjustments to make them comparable. Furthermore.. In particular. do changes in land use and land management account for the entire change in C storage in terrestrial ecosystems? Or do other factors contribute significantly to a terrestrial sink? 3.. C. Given the larger emissions from fossil fuels and the higher atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the second decade. averaging 0. suggests that other factors are important for explaining the sink. Converting volumes to total biomass and accounting for the fate of harvested products and changes in the pools of woody debris. reforestation. However. Forest inventories provide systematic measurement of wood volumes from more than a million plots throughout the temperate and boreal zones..2 PgC yr-1 during the 1990s (Houghton. 1992. forest floor. 2002).LAND USE AND THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE 239 transported by rivers to the ocean and respired there (Sarmiento and Sundquist. and logging is calculated to have released an average of 2. and 2. not less. logged. Also unexplained is the apparent decrease in the net oceanic C sink from the 1980s to the 1990s. burned. 2001).. Bottom-up approaches include data from forest inventories (Goodale et al. In this paper we review these new estimates from the perspective of land-use change.0 PgC yr-1 globally during the 1980s. soils. forest inventories are rare over large regions of the tropics. in press). The reason for the large increase between the 1980s and 1990s is unknown.4 (+0. and. The calculated fluxes include the C sinks associated with forest (re)growth as well as the sources from burning and decay of organic matter. in press). a number of recent analyses have modified estimates of the magnitude of the terrestrial flux.

higher than that obtained from changes in O2 and CO2 (0.2..8 -2.7 PgC yr-1.8 2.9 PgC yr-1 must have accumulated on land for reasons not related to land-use change. (2002) shows a larger oceanic uptake in the 1990s than the 1980s.4 + 1. The source of 2. overlapping with the estimate obtained though changes in O2 and CO2 concentrations (Table 2). Reducing the net terrestrial sink obtained through inverse calculations (1. in turn. This gross sink is called the residual .2 -2. Global C budgets for the 1980s and 1990s (PgC yr-1). balanced by a net terrestrial uptake of C through photosynthesis and weathering.7 + 0. Table 1.6 -0. However. 2002) determined that the outgassing of O2 was much larger than estimated by Prentice et al. Sarmiento and Sundquist (1992) estimated a pre-industrial net export by rivers of 0. 2002. rather than 1. these estimates of flux need to be adjusted for riverine transport to obtain an estimate of the terrestrial C sink.4 PgC yr-1) by 0.3 + 0.3 + 0. The two methods based on atmospheric measurements yield similar global estimates of a small net terrestrial C sink. calculated by summing regional fluxes.8 PgC yr1 . which. Keeling and Garcia..2 PgC yr-1 were emitted as a result of changes in land use.7 + 0.4 + 0. (2001).2 + 0. 2002. The net terrestrial flux averaged 0.8 -2.2 + 0. 2002). The recalculated partitioning of C uptake between land and sea (Table 1) by Plattner et al. The terrestrial uptake is more similar between decades than estimated by Prentice et al.7 PgC yr-1. are obtained by inverting the spatial CO2 distribution. and 2.1 Estimates of a global net C flux from the atmosphere to the land. 3. average around 1.9 + 1. Negative values indicate a withdrawal of CO2 from the atmosphere.6 PgC yr-1 yields a result of 0.240 HOUGHTON..1 1990s 6.7 -0. Plattner et al.7 PgC yr-1.0 + 0. (2001) ** from Plattner et al.3 3.2 PgC yr-1 calculated from changes in land use is very different from this global net terrestrial sink (0. 1980s Fossil fuel emissions* Atmospheric increase* Oceanic uptake** Net terrestrial sink** Land-use change*** Residual ‘terrestrial’ sink * from Prentice et al. JOOS AND ASNER More recent analyses (Bopp et al.7 PgC yr-1).1 -1.7 PgC yr-1 during the 1980s and 1990s.2 A RESIDUAL (TERRESTRIAL) FLUX OF CARBON If the net terrestrial flux of C during the 1990s was 0. Aumont et al. respectively. then 2.4 + 0.7 PgC yr-1). in line with results of oceanic models. Several studies have tried to adjust atmospherically-based C fluxes to account for this transport of C by rivers. (2002) *** from Houghton (in press) 5.4 PgC yr-1 (Gurney et al. PgC yr-1). (2001) (an average difference of 0.7 2.3.4-0.4 and 0.4 3.4 + 0. (2001) estimated a terrestrial uptake due to continental weathering of 0.

–2.8)3. (2002) adjusted for soils and degradation (see text) 2.8)2.3 to account for river transport (Aumont et al.9 to 2. analyses based on land-use change are deliberately biased.. 2002 –1. Negative values indicate a terrestrial sink. Nevertheless. (2002) reduced by 0. (1998) (challenged by Clark 2002) 8.2( 0. 0. Inverse calculations -0. -2. In contrast to the unknown bias of atmospheric methods. 2001) 5. To the extent that the residual terrestrial sink exists at all suggests that processes other than land-use change are affecting C storage on land. 2. This residual terrestrial sink may result from bias in the methods. That is. O2 and CO2 Globe North Tropics 1. Since that time the residual terrestrial sink has generally increased (Bruno and Joos.5)3. 1.7( 0.3 to account for river transport (Aumont et al.8)4.3 from Achard et al. the residual sink is calculated by difference. Undisturbed forests: –0. –0... -1. For example.7 in forests (Goodale et al.4 from Gurney et al. if the emissions from land-use change are overestimated. 1995) 3. Forest inventories Land use change 2. 1995) as required in atmospheric transport inversions. (2002) increased by 0.4 from Fearnside (2000) A longer-term estimate of the residual terrestrial C flux suggests that it was nearly zero before 1935 (Fig. Houghton. Estimates of the annual terrestrial C sink (PgC yr-1) in the 1990s according to different methods. It is difficult to simulate correctly the contribution of the seasonal biosphere-atmosphere exchange to the observed atmospheric CO2 field (‘rectifier effect’) (Denning et al.03( 0. 0.67. limited quantitative understanding of the processes regulating oceanic O2 outgassing may introduce biases in global sink estimates.8)1. The contribution of fluxes associated with the natural C cycle to spatial gradients is debated (Taylor and Orr..4 from Gurney et al.9 from DeFries et al. 2002) and another equivalent amount assumed for non-forests (see text) 6.2)6. -0. changes in land use explained most of the net terrestrial C flux until about 1935. 2000). Table 2.. 1997).2( 0.. (2002) increased by 0. the residual sink will also be high.5( 1.2 from Gurney et al. land-based approaches. Tans et al.1( 0. 0. -0. The C released from land-use change and the residual sink sum to the observed net sink. On the other hand.LAND USE AND THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE 241 terrestrial sink (Table 1) (formerly called the “missing sink”). 2001) 7. The resulting residual C sink has traditionally been attributed to environmental changes. Plattner et al. 1.6 from Phillips et al.48.45. in review 1. These analyses consider only the changes in .8( 0.6 to account for river transport (Sarmiento and Sundquist 1992. most inverse analyses yield higher terrestrial C sinks than bottom-up.8) from Houghton (in press) 2. 1). in press 4.

0 1. or logging. but that are ignored in analyses of landuse change. Negative values indicate a net terrestrial uptake of C. while Houghton’s analysis does (Table 3). updated). Changes in terrestrial C storage have been estimated by subtracting from fossil emissions the changes in the atmospheric C inventory. is nearly the complement of Houghton’s analysis: it includes environmental effects.0 Annual Flux (PgC yr-1) 0.0 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 -2. it does not consider changes in pastures. (2001). There may be other sources and sinks of C not related to landuse change (such as sinks caused by CO2 fertilization) that exchange C with the atmosphere and are captured by other methods.242 HOUGHTON. Examples include the four models described in a recent analysis by McGuire et al. the annual flux from changes in land use (Houghton. and climate on carbon storage (the effects commonly thought to account for the residual terrestrial flux). deduced from atmospheric and ice core CO2 data. in press).0 Changes in land use 155. while Houghton’s analysis does not. the analysis by McGuire et al. shifting cultivation.0 Change in terrestrial C storage 31.0 Figure 1. The annual change in global carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems (Joos et al. 3.4 -4.2 -3.9 Residual Flux -116.0 1850 -1. . JOOS AND ASNER terrestrial C resulting directly from human activity (conversion and modification of terrestrial ecosystems). Each of the models included some changes in land use as well as the effects of CO2 and climate on terrestrial C storage. N. Although the models are very different from the bookkeeping model used by Houghton (in press). estimated with an ocean model. and in the oceanic C inventory. and the annual residual terrestrial sink (the difference between the changes in terrestrial storage and the land-use change flux). The values in the legend refer to the total change in C storage or C flux between 1850 and 2000. (1999.0 2. A number of process-based terrestrial carbon models simulate the effects of CO2.

(in press) for other differences). yet the area in croplands did not change correspondingly because croplands were also abandoned. That is. Terrestrial fluxes of C attributed to several mechanisms (average PgC yr-1 for the period 1980-1989) McGuire et al.29 -0.150 PgC yr-1) and degradation of forests in China (0. and the relative importance of different growth-enhancing mechanisms varies among models. Houghton (in press) used rates of clearing based on changes in forest area reported by the FAO (2001).LAND USE AND THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE 243 Thus.97 NE is ‘not estimated’. the result of errors or omissions in analyses of land-use change. rather. However. used net changes in cropland area from Ramankutty and Foley (1999) to calculate flux. and Houghton) that is redundant is the flux attributable to changes in the area of croplands. McGuire et al.21** 0. Field observations of carbon sinks do not indicate the mechanism(s) responsible.10 -0.8** Houghton 1.* Croplands Pastures Shifting cultivation Logging Afforestation Other*** CO2 fertilization Climatic variation Total 0. The difference in cropland fluxes (0. The net reduction in forest area often exceeded the increase in agricultural (cropland and pasture) area. . although process-based models generally find a global terrestrial C sink consistent with the magnitude of the residual terrestrial sink. The analysis by Houghton included gross rates of clearing and abandonment to calculate the flux attributable to croplands. a possibility explored below.044 PgC yr-1) The only aspect of the studies (McGuire et al. *** Fire suppression in the U. It is possible that much of the terrestrial sink attributed to environmental factors is.24 0. (-0. the models are difficult to validate.S. The abandoned croplands were not reported as returning to forest (such lands often become degraded). (2001) are the means of four process-based terrestrial carbon models. ** The simulations in McGuire et al. Negative values indicate a terrestrial sink.11 NE NE NE NE NE -1.2 PgC yr-1) (Table 3) is at least partly related to the manner in which the studies accounted for the expansion of croplands in the tropics (see the recent paper by House et al. and Houghton assumed that the excess deforestation resulted from simultaneous clearing (deforestation) and abandonment of croplands. Table 3. together. 1.4 -0. forests were cleared for new croplands. The clearing of forests for croplands in the tropics exceeds the net increase in cropland area.8 vs.7 NE NE 1. the two studies.9 0. appear to address both the flux of C from land-use change and the residual terrestrial flux. used net changes in cropland area (from Ramankutty and Foley 1999) to determine annual rates of clearing.44 0. * The estimates from McGuire et al.

1 PgC yr-1).e. Additional comparisons of terrestrial C fluxes can be obtained from a consideration of tropical and extra-tropical regions separately. and a residual terrestrial sink. 3. JOOS AND ASNER and thus the loss of forest area exceeded the increase in cropland. The difference in approaches points to the importance of accounting for all changes in land use.. 2001). suggests that much of the current terrestrial flux in northern extratropical regions is part of a natural circulation of C. 2002) (see Conway and Tans (1999) for an alternative interpretation). It has been estimated that rivers transport around 0. but if non-forest ecosystems throughout the region are as important in storing C as they seem to be in the U. Thus. 2002) (not accounting for the riverine flux).2 PgC yr-1. Subtracting this riverine transport from the terrestrial net C-flux of 2. available bottom-up and top-down analyses.. suggest a global net terrestrial sink. forests). one can construct patterns of landuse change from agricultural statistics that miss important changes in C. despite existing uncertainties.7 PgC yr-1 for the northern mid-latitudes (Goodale et al. which is offset to some degree by a net tropical source of 1.. and when the natural CO2 gradients are accounted for in transport inversion. 2002). while tropical lands were a net source.3 PgC yr-1 from the land to the ocean in the northern mid and high latitudes. Thus. Almost all analyses indicate that northern mid-latitude lands were a net sink.4 PgC yr-1) that is closer to the top-down estimate (2. The area in croplands. 1990).7 PgC yr-1 for the 1990s is not evenly distributed over the land surface. (see below).. The estimate is less than half the sink for all northern mid-latitude lands inferred from atmospheric data. but the individual values were not (Tans et al. Analyses based on satellite data rather than on agricultural statistics have the potential for full land-use accounting (Defries et al. A recent synthesis of data from forest inventories found a net terrestrial sink of 0. This conclusion is also supported by estimates of oceanic C uptake based on oceanic tracer data or models that are not explicitly discussed here (Prentice et al. Whether the sources and sinks are attributed to croplands or to degradation is of secondary importance. the difference between the northern sink and the tropical source was defined.4 PgC yr-1 yields a northern terrestrial sink of 2.244 HOUGHTON.S.3 THE NORTHERN MID-LATITUDES The net terrestrial C sink of ~0. Based on an enlarged CO2 monitoring network. the sink in northern mid-latitudes for the 1990s is now thought to be 2.1 PgC yr-1 One analysis of the distribution of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. (2001) reported a .. pastures and forests are often documented.4 PgC yr-1 (Gurney et al. without use of a transport model. Pacala et al. A resolution of these estimates is beyond the scope of this analysis. the flux of C attributed to cropland expansion and abandonment was greater in Houghton’s analysis. 2002). As long as the north-south gradient in CO2 concentrations was the only constraint. The important point is to capture the major changes in C (i. Because more forests were cleared for croplands under Houghton’s assumption than under McGuire’s assumption. this bottom-up analyses yields a sink (~1. In summary.5 PgC yr-1) (Taylor and Orr 2000) than suggested by others (Gurney et al. Degraded lands are not. and to a lesser extent. the current (perturbation) sink is much smaller (<0. a sink of 2 PgC yr-1 in northern mid-latitudes and a source of 0 PgC yr-1 in the tropics could not be distinguished from a northern sink of 5 PgC yr-1 and a tropical source of 3 PgC yr-1.

forests were the result of recovery from past land-use changes. (2001) in Table 3). On the other hand. even a small enhancement of 0. nevertheless.4 THE UNITED STATES Top-down estimates for relatively small regions such as the US are currently not very reliable. fire suppression. (1999) estimated a C sink of 0. this suggests that processes other than land-use change are responsible for a northern sink of 1 to 2 PgC yr-1. but C uptake by regrowth may be offset by C loss due to disturbances elsewhere (or at a later time). (2002) in two important respects. McGuire et al. the relationship between forest age and wood volume (or biomass) is too variable to constrain the enhancement of growth to between 0. The work of Caspersen et al.. then the uptake estimated from forest inventories should equal the flux estimated from land-use change statistics. Another reason for potential discrepancies is that only C in trees is monitored in forest inventories.35 PgC yr-1 attributable to changes in land use. the analysis by Houghton et al. Enhancements of even 0. relatively small growth enhancement fluxes may play an important role for the net change in terrestrial C storage when considering large . Houghton et al.85 0.15 – 0. translate into a significant C sink (Joos et al. and earlier harvests was only 10-30% of the uptake measured by forest inventories.LAND USE AND THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE 245 similar overlap of top-down and bottom-up estimates for the U. Thus a small enhancement of growth may.1% per year yield estimates of biomass indistinguishable from those observed. 2000. the sink in non-forests is very uncertain. Based on an analysis of changes in land use. Pacala et al. Gurney et al. claimed. is for 1992-1996 and would probably have been lower if averaged over the entire decade (see other estimates in Prentice et al. was the uptake measured by forest inventories. Their estimate for the uptake of C by forests. they included sinks not necessarily resulting from land-use change. However.1% per year in net primary production would. but in so doing. 2001). Next. Barford et al. Admittedly. (2000) has been criticized by Joos et al. for a doubling of CO2.5 Pg C yr-1 for the US.001% and 0. 3. as Caspersen et al. we compare different bottom-up estimates available for the contiguous United States to investigate the plausibility of the estimate by Houghton.S.. The contributions reach 65% if the uptake Houghton et al.S. Hence. First. in press).52 PgC yr-1) is included (Table 4). Taken at face value. whereas changes in soil C may be equally or more important. (2000) suggests that such an attribution is warranted. The results appear to be inconsistent with those of Caspersen et al. (2000). On the other hand. for example. 2002). (2002) estimate a C flux from the atmosphere to the land of 0.. Estimates of C-fluxes based on land use change statistics are around zero in the northern extratropical region (Houghton.g. attributed to woodland ‘thickening’ (0. Second. If all of the accumulation of C in U..01% per year. the northern sink of 2. (2000) revised the estimate upwards by including additional processes. yield a 25% increase in growth (e. Regrowth is clearly the dominant process in forests recovering from a disturbance. the few field investigations that have considered soil C have found that soils account for only a small fraction (5-15%) of the ecosystem’s C sink (Gaudinski et al. The uptake calculated for forests recovering from agricultural abandonment. (1999) found that past changes in land use could account for only 1030% of the observed C accumulation in trees. 2001).1 PgC yr-1 from Gurney et al. Top-down estimates for a short time period are sensitive to large interannual variations in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2. The study by Caspersen et al.

and how much can be attributed to enhanced rates of growth. insects and how does growth enhancement affect this balance.03 -0.010 -0.S. and thinning have increased the productivity of US forests but were not accounted for.15 -0. . JOOS AND ASNER spatial areas and temporal scales longer than a few years.026 PgC yr-1 in the thickening of western pine woodlands as a result of early fire suppression Houghton et al. land-use change and some management) *** -0. Houghton did not consider forest management practices other than harvest (including regrowth) and fire suppression.04 -0.11 -0.01 -0.138 -0. Neither did Houghton consider the proliferation of trees in suburban areas.00 -0.03 -0..28 NE is ‘not estimated’.07 -0. Table 4.** (1999) -0. rates of clearing and abandonment are often simultaneous and thus create larger areas of regrowing forests than would be predicted from net changes in agricultural area.122 -0. hence.35 Houghton ** (in press) -0. Answering the question will be difficult.S.072*** 0.* (2001) low high Forest trees Other forest organic matter Cropland soils Woody encroachment Wood products Sediments Total sink -0. * Pacala et al. they are ignored here. ** Includes only the direct effects of human activity (i. storms.12 -0. **** -0.11 Goodale et al.06 NE -0. In contrast. (PgC yr-1 in 1990) Pacala et al. which in boreal forests are more important than logging in determining the current age structure and. breeding programs. (2001) also included the import/export imbalance of food and wood products and river exports.010 -0.061 -0.S.020 PgC yr-1 in forests and -0.00 -0. (1999) and Houghton (in press) may have underestimated the sink attributable to land-use change.30 -0. fertilization.13 -0.020 PgC yr-1 in forests and -0.046**** 0.58 Houghton et al. Negative values indicate a source of C to the atmosphere. lands can be attributed to changes in land use and management.11 -0. At present it is unclear how much of the C sink in U. but one way to answer it is through the reconstruction of past human-induced and natural disturbances for the contiguous US and other regions of the globe. or natural disturbances.11 NE NE -0.e.04 -0. The question becomes: What is the current balance between C accumulation in regrowing forest versus the loss due to disturbances such as fire.027 NE -0. Estimated rates of C accumulation in the U. Such activities as weed control.15 -0.027 NE -0.052 PgC yr-1 in the thickening of western pine woodlands as a result of early fire suppression. As these would create corresponding sources outside the U. 1999). rate of C accumulation in forests (Kurz and Apps. (2002) -0.. A fourth reason why the sink may have been underestimated is that Houghton used net changes in agricultural area to obtain rates of agricultural abandonment.246 HOUGHTON.

(1999). the impact of past human induced and natural disturbances on the evolution of terrestrial C storage needs to be investigated more carefully. changes in land use yield a significantly lower sink than inferred from either inverse calculations or forest inventories. 2000.. It might be as high as 98% (Caspersen et al. although this result remains highly contentious (Asner et al.LAND USE AND THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE 247 One of the findings common to Houghton et al. (2001) is that non-forest ecosystems could account for a significant C sink. 2001).... Schimel et al. Houghton et al. an upper limit of 0. or it will require a more complete and spatially-detailed assessment of land-use change and land management in the U. a recent study of woody encroachment suggests that when changes in soil C are included. Resolution will require examination of forest age structure over more than two points in time and in regions other than those considered by Caspersen et al. C storage is thus 0. may be too high (Hicke et al. the largest area of woody encroachment studied (> 40. Somewhat independent of the belowground (soil organic C) responses to woody encroachment. a study of pine thickening in Colorado suggested that accumulation rates used by Houghton et al.12 PgC yr-1 in woody vegetation expansion or encroachment and an upper limit of 0. However. 2000) or as low as 40% (Houghton.02 Mg ha-1 y-1.S.000 ha in Texas) indicates an increase in aboveground C stocks of 0.. in review).05 PgC yr-1 in the thickening of woodlands. loss (rather than gain) of woody plants is occurring in some systems (Billings 1990). the ‘best estimate’ for the effects of land-use change (and fire management) on U. and about 74% of that estimated by Houghton et al.. (1999) and Pacala et al. subsequent analyses of C accumulation resulting from conservation tillage in agricultural soils indicate a smaller sink (Schimel et al.11 PgC yr-1 (Houghton. and elsewhere. In any case. Based on this and other emerging evidence.. in review). From 36-43% of the net sink estimated by Pacala et al.S. This conclusion probably applies to all of the northern mid-latitudes. was in non-forests.S.. in press). in press). region represented by this study (~ 50M ha). The fraction of the northern C sink attributable to changes in land use and land management remains uncertain (Spiecker et al.. suggest a net C sink from woody encroachment of about 0. The reasons for the lower estimate are several fold. or the estimates from forest inventories and inverse calculations are too high. Second. 2002). Pacala et al. the results of Asner et al. Finally. Further. Either an enhancement in growth is equally important. Furthermore.14 PgC yr-1 in agricultural soils. Both forest inventories and inverse calculations with atmospheric data show terrestrial ecosystems to be a significant C sink. . 2000).001 PgC yr-1. Houghton’s analyses of land-use change have omitted some important management or disturbance processes. (1999) reported a sink of 0. while analyses of changes in land use show a net sink close to zero. the sink in trees is only 40% of that estimated from forest inventories (Table 4). is attributable to changes outside of forests.S. First. accounting for both encroachment and management efforts to remove woody plants (Asner et al. the displacement of grasses with woody shrubs may actually involve a net loss of C (Jackson et al. Thus. in press. 1996). Initially. About 50% of this revised sink for the U. a more conservative estimate for woody encroachment and woodland thickening is half of the original upper limit proposed by Houghton et al. Extrapolated to the southwest U.

Keller et al. but these results are controversial. The finding of a net sink for the Amazon. has been challenged on the basis of systematic errors in measurement and plot size (Clark 2002. (2002) combined atmospheric 13CO2 observations. in press). and because atmospheric transport over the tropics is not well understood. and the C balance of the tropics is less certain. estimates change from a net sink to a net source of C (Miller et al. 1998). In sum. the two methods most powerful in constraining the northern net sink are weak or lacking in the tropics.. (2002) counter that the errors are minor. 1989. 1995. in press). at least in the neo-tropics (Phillips et al. 1998). Thus. Phillips et al. large sinks in undisturbed forests are suspect.5 PgC yr-1. however. Accounting for a riverine transport of 0. but assuming the plots in the neo-tropics were representative of forests not disturbed by direct human interventions throughout the region yields a sink of 0. Wind speeds are much reduced at night. The results suggest that . are larger than the emissions of C from deforestation (Malhi et al.. Townsend et al. Support for an accumulation of C in undisturbed tropical forests comes from some of the studies that have measured CO2 flux by eddy correlation (Grace et al. living trees were accumulating C. resulting in a small net source from the site.. the latter leaves an atmospheric 13C signature more similar to that of the air-sea transfer of CO2 than to the land-air transfer (Rundel et al.. 2002). JOOS AND ASNER Do changes in tropical land use account for the net flux of C in that region? Inverse calculations show that tropical lands release on average a flux of 1. If only those nights with the highest wind speeds are used to calculate an annual net flux. Forest inventories for large areas of the tropics are rare. modeling and land-cover change data to investigate pan-tropical C sources and sinks. but the decay of downed wood released more C. 2002). 1995). Ciais et al. and CO2 efflux is negatively related to windspeed. The eddy correlation method for measuring CO2 flux includes both daytime and nighttime measurements. Some studies suggest that the sinks in forests not disturbed by direct human interventions. Tropical lands would thus be a net C sink. The direction of flux differs day and night and the micrometeorological conditions also differ systematically day and night.. (2002) found that tropical regions were nearly C-neutral. In the Tapajós National Forest.. Because there are few air sampling stations over tropical lands. if scaled up to the entire region.. but the results remain contentious. 1998). although repeated measurements of permanent plots throughout the tropics suggest that undisturbed tropical forests are accumulating C.248 3. 2001) yields a rate of decrease in terrestrial storage of 1.5 THE TROPICS HOUGHTON. A recent study by Townsend et al... the error surrounding the flux estimate for the tropics is larger than it is for northern mid-latitudes. Their analysis recognizes that deforestation in the tropics has led to an increase in the extent of C4 plants (warm climate grasses) relative to C3 plants (woody vegetation such as trees). Pará. Brazil.. Because C3 plants discriminate more strongly against 13 C than do C4 plants. After accounting for the time-integrated replacement of 13C-rich organic matter in forest soils with 13C-poor organic matter in pasture soils (from C4 plant detritus). Malhi et al.2 PgC yr-1 during the period 1992-1996 (Gurney et al. The number of such plots was too small in tropical African or Asian forests to demonstrate a change in C storage.3 PgC yr-1 (Aumont et al. Some recent measurements of CO2 flux as well as measurements of biomass (forest inventory) do not show a large net sink (Rice et al. or “land-use disequilibrium”..62 PgC yr-1.

Afforestation 3. .430 0 0 0 0 2.040 Globe 2. Rates of deforestation are larger than rates of afforestation (FAO 2001). The net flux of C calculated from land-use change in the tropics is clearly a source of C to the atmosphere.060 0.100 0* 0.420 -0. and elsewhere.110* -0. The gross fluxes from repeated clearing of fallow lands and temporary abandonment are not included.590 0. Table 5.420 -0. Wood products b. new inputs of nitrogen.390 0. and the source from deforestation is lower than Houghton estimates. in press) Activity 1. the sinks obtained through inverse calculations are larger than they are from analyses of land-use change. Houghton (in press) estimates that the net C flux resulting from deforestation. Woody encroachment** Total Tropical regions 2.190 0. Keller et al. and similar values may apply in South America. A sink of 0. but this sink was more than offset by the large emissions from deforestation (and associated burning and decay of organic matter).240 -0.040 0. Based on data from the FAO.040 0. Regrowth 5. it is possible that much of the C released from land-use change is balanced by C sinks in forests not disturbed by direct human interventions. Fire suppression 6.2 PgC yr-1 during the 1990s. and wood harvest in the tropics was a net source.030 -0. undisturbed forests are neutral with respect to C. or climatic variation.130 -0.840 -1. Alternatively.310 0.120 -0.030 -0. As discussed above. afforestation.180 -0. Deforestation 2. perhaps from CO2 fertilization. Reforestation 4.060 2. in review).200 Temperate and boreal zones 0. In both regions. The sink (if it exists at all) might be the result of enhanced rates of growth.020 -0. ** Probably an underestimate. in press.060 0.240 * Only the net effect of shifting cultivation is included.080 -0. averaging 2.120 0.LAND USE AND THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE 249 the stand is recovering from a disturbance several years earlier (Rice et al. Estimates of the associated sources (+) and sinks (-) of carbon (PgC yr-1 for the 1990s) from different types of land-use change and management (from Houghton. Australia. just as they give a higher net sink in northern latitudes. Non-forests a. Comparing the results of different methods shows that the inverse calculations based on atmospheric data and models give a lower net C source from the tropics..690 -0.020 -0.060 0.200 0.43 PgC yr-1 was calculated for forests recovering from logging activities (Table 5). Agricultural soils b. only.S. The estimate is for the U. Slash c.. Harvest of wood a.

In addition to observing 5. Their analysis used high resolution satellite data over a 6.. also observed 2. Thus. the latitudinal gradient in CO2 concentrations constrains the difference between the northern sink and tropical source more than it constrains the absolute fluxes. Under the first explanation. mutually exclusive explanations for the net tropical flux of C. Under the second. The estimate is probably low because it did not include the losses of C from soils that often occur with cultivation or the losses of C from the degradation observed. As mentioned above. Soils and land degradation (reductions of biomass within forests) accounted for 12 and 26%. in press) may be too high. stratified by “deforestation hot-spot areas” defined by experts. Rice et al. report lower rates than the FAO and lower emissions of C than Houghton (in press).96 PgC yr-1. of Houghton’s estimated flux for tropical Asia and America. tropical forest biomass.8 x 106 ha yr-1 of outright deforestation in the tropical humid forests. 1998) and the C accumulation observed on permanent plots in South America (Phillips et al. Achard et al..5% sample of tropical humid forests. In summary. Evidence against a large sink in undisturbed forests includes biases in the measurements of CO2 flux at many sites (Miller et al. in press) and biases in measurement of change in biomass (Clark 2002). and that the net flux from undisturbed forests is essentially zero. is constrained by the magnitude of the net sink in northern mid-latitudes. A third possibility. JOOS AND ASNER The existing data allow at least two. the result of poor or biased data. including changes in the area of dry forests as well as humid ones.. 1998.250 HOUGHTON. and the high estimates are. One can imagine that a country might want to underreport its rates of deforestation to appear environmentally ‘correct’. The other suggests that the source from deforestation is smaller. we address potential biases in estimates of the land-use change flux. and would . Next. Their estimated C flux. Why would it over-report the rate? Perhaps few countries insist on underreporting rates of deforestation. The rates of deforestation and afforestation used by Houghton (in press) to calculate a net flux are those reported by the FAO. Houghton. the evidence for a large C sink in the tropics (offsetting the source from land-use change) includes the uptake of C measured by eddy correlation techniques in undisturbed forests (Malhi et al. based on satellite data. 3. the entire net flux of C may be explained by changes in land use. a growth enhancement (or past natural disturbance) is required to explain the large current sink in undisturbed tropical forests. Potentially. and rates of decay may each be overestimated. that the net tropical C source is larger than indicated by inverse calculations (uncertain in the tropics). Two new studies of tropical deforestation. It is somewhat surprising that the FAO would overestimate rates of deforestation. (2002) found rates 23% lower than the FAO for the 1990s (Table 6).. in press.6 POTENTIAL BIASES IN THE TROPICAL DEFORESTATION SOURCE The high estimates of C emissions attributed to land-use change in the tropics (Fearnside 2000.3 x 106 ha yr-1 of degradation. One suggests that a large release of C from land-use change is partially offset by a large sink in undisturbed forests. The study by Achard et al. respectively. rather. was 0. The FAO uses expert opinion to determine the rates but must report a country’s official governmental estimate if one exists. 2002). there are at least three reasons: deforestation rates. the northern sink limits the magnitude of the net tropical source.

is most unreliable because of the large areas of savanna.. the calculated emissions from logging and deforestation may be overestimated (Monastersky 1999). The tropical emissions of C estimated by the two studies are about half of Houghton’s estimate: 1. Houghton’s estimate would be similar if based on these recent estimates of deforestation. 2001). 2002) was based on coarse resolution satellite data (8km). is poorly known (Houghton et al. On the other hand. logging. if downed trees take longer to decay and/or regrowth of biomass is faster than Houghton assumed.9+0. 1994. particularly those forests that are being deforested or degraded.. especially in regions. but the loss of C is the same (with more coming from degradation rather than from deforestation).. the estimated net flux of C for the 1990s was 0. According to DeFries et al. lower than the FAO’s. However. In regions with a longer history of logging . such as Amazonia. and other uses of forests are reducing the biomass of tropical forests and releasing C in the process (Brown et al. It is the difference between the rate of deforestation and the rate of afforestation. where the percent tree cover mapped by DeFries et al. The results yielded estimates of deforestation that were 54% less than those reported by the FAO (Table 6). were similar. These processes of degradation may reduce the amount of C emitted through deforestation. Both studies suggest that the FAO estimates of tropical deforestation are high. the results may vary because the studies include different types of forests. considered only humid tropical forests. Table 6.3 and 0. The second estimate of tropical deforestation (DeFries et al. shifting cultivation.3 PgC yr-1 if the same percentages were applied to the estimate by Archard et al. 2000. Percentage by which recent estimates of net change in forest area* for the 1990s are lower than reported by the FAO (2001) Achard et al. and DeFries et al. (2002) Tropical America Tropical Asia Tropical Africa All tropics 18 20 42 23 DeFries et al. The biomass of tropical forests. (2002) 28 16 93 54 * The net change in forest area is not the rate of deforestation. Fearnside’s (2000) and Houghton’s (in press) estimates of a tropical C source would also be high if their estimates of tropical forest biomass were too high. Finally. but the rates are still in question. where rates of logging have been increasing. (2002). there could be little doubt that the FAO estimates are high. calibrated with high resolution satellite data to identify % tree cover and to account for small clearings that would be missed with the coarse resolution data. DeFries included all tropical forests. Furthermore. The greatest differences are in tropical Africa. Achard et al. If the tropical deforestation rates obtained by Archard et al. Flint and Richards.2 PgC yr-1.. as opposed to 2.4 PgC yr-1. 1994).9 PgC yr-1. the estimates are as different from each other as they are from those of the FAO (Table 6).LAND USE AND THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE 251 yield a total flux of 1.

The first alternative (large sources and large sinks) is most consistent with the argument that factors other than land-use change or management are responsible for observed C sinks. A resolution of the factors responsible for the residual terrestrial flux is of practical concern. If the sink is largely the result of management. The warmer temperatures in the tropics. Can the C sink in forests be explained by age structure alone (i. or whether environmentally enhanced rates of tree growth are responsible for the difference. In both northern and tropical regions changes in land use exert a large influence on the flux of C. a sensitive measure of biomass from space might help distinguish the changes in C attributable to land-use change from the changes attributable to enhanced growth --. generally lacking in analyses of land-use change. 4 Conclusions There is a large body of evidence for a considerable global net terrestrial C sink.252 HOUGHTON. or are enhanced rates of C storage important (Houghton et al. it is more acceptable .. when estimates of change in non-forests (poorly known) are added to the results of forest inventories.. the relative importance of other factors need not be the same in both regions. are responsible for an additional sink. 2000)? In the tropics. Is there a bias in the atmospheric analyses? Or are there sinks not included in the bottom-up analyses? For the northern mid-latitudes. The second alternative is most consistent with little or no enhanced growth. Either large emissions of C from land-use change are somewhat offset by large C sinks in undisturbed forests. JOOS AND ASNER and deforestation. 1999. the result overlaps estimates determined from inverse calculations. 2000). Of course... Existing evidence suggests two possibilities. Changes in land use include non-forest ecosystems but yield a smaller estimate of a sink. and because forest inventories are lacking. and with a systematic and spatial determination of biomass. In fact. in press and in review). In both the northern mid-latitudes and the tropics the terrestrial C sinks obtained through inverse calculations with atmospheric data are larger (or the sources smaller) than those obtained from bottom-up analyses (land-use change and forest inventories). using higher or lower rates of decay does not significantly change the calculated flux for the 1990s. land use change analyses suggest a large global C source. previous disturbances and management) (Caspersen et al. Alternative approaches yield conflicting results concerning the enhancement of growth (or C storage) in undisturbed forests. with essentially no requirement for an additional sink. On the other hand. the uncertainties are similar but also greater because atmospheric data for inverse calculations are more poorly distributed.at least for the aboveground biomass component.. Schimel et al. 1996). implying an even larger (residual) C sink. for example. It is not clear whether management practices and natural disturbances. The major uncertainties in the tropics could be reduced with a systematic and spatial determination of rates of deforestation and afforestation. suggest that CO2 fertilization would be more important there (Lloyd and Farquhar. Keller et al. Measurement of changes in the amount of downed dead wood and soil C will require extensive ground measurements or a combination of ground samples and modeling (Chambers 2000. more than offsetting the land-use source. or lower releases of C from land-use change explain the entire net terrestrial flux.e. It is unclear whether other factors have been important.

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Climate broadly establishes the upstream supply term of the water budget. nutrient and pollutant loads) that has impacts and consequences on the reservoirs through which it passes. Quantity refers to the presence of a sufficient supply of fresh water to support the human and natural systems dependent on it. . details are presented elsewhere in this book (Bonan et al. Land cover and land use are important determinates of the water supply on its transit through a landscape. 257–276. FISHER2 Department of Geological Sciences. Climate change will almost certainly impact the water cycle. RI 02906 USA 2 Horn Point Laboratory.CHAPTER 15 LAND USE AND HYDROLOGY JOHN F. MUSTARD1. 1982). 2001). for domestic. The water carries a signature of its history (i. MD 21613 USA 1 1 Introduction Water quality and quantity are widely recognized as important environmental resources for society (Arnell et al.. domestic. with a greater frequency of heavy precipitation events. from its first appearance in precipitation to its exit to the ocean. These effects have been studied in some detail. it is well documented that deforestation increases stream flow through decreased evapotranspiration (Bosch and Hewlett. allocated. Chapter 17). 1994). and state. 2001). Gutman et al.and suburbanization also increase stream flow through increased runoff. Urban. but also decrease water quality when the amount of impervious surface in a watershed exceeds 10-15% of the total land cover (Schueler. The net result is that demand often exceeds supply in these systems. The demand for water in all regions.. however. industrial. 2000). Brown University. and the water cycle is a series of fluxes between reservoirs of varying size. and the effects of land cover and land use on water quality and quantity at the local level have been well established through numerous studies. and agricultural uses has led to water engineering projects on all scales (Rosenberg et al. This interconnected property means that there are important consequences of the life history of water on a landscape. precipitation has increased 0.5-1% per decade in the 20th century in the mid-high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Center for Environmental Science. or natural). Box 1846. Land Change Science. For example. and these trends are likely to continue (IPCC Reports. while quality refers to the suitability of the supply for its intended use (e. but particularly in arid and semi-arid environments. but how that water is transported. (eds. resulting in some of the 20th century’s largest land transformations with consequent impacts on aquatic systems. although largely at global/regional scales. This establishes the essential parameters of the water fluxes.). 257 G. For example. and modified during residency on the land is an important research area for Land Cover and Land Use Change (LCLUC). THOMAS R. © 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. residence time.g... Providence. University of Maryland Cambridge. Water is a dynamic substance.e. Printed in the Netherlands. agricultural. industrial.

. This sequence of images shows the loss in the area of the Aral Sea due to reallocation of water from the two major river inputs.2x104 km2 and 1064 km3 to 310 km3 respectively (Saiko and Zonn. 2000). (Color Image. Beginning in the 1960s. Most studies Figure 1. and the lower right from MODIS. 2001a). power generation.g. Tanton and Heaven.258 MUSTARD AND FISHER The case of the Aral Sea is one of the largest and well-known examples of the effects of water diversion (Micklin.7x104 km2 to 3. This led to an enormous decrease in the area and volume of the Aral Sea over the next 35 years (Figure 1) from 6. and flood control. For example. Accompanying the shrinking sea is a long list of ecological and social impacts. Saiko and Zonn. 1994. see CD) anticipate its complete disappearance in the next 25 years (e. The upper left image is a black and white photograph from the Corona satellite. local climate has been impacted as evidenced by changes in surface temperature (Small et al. the upper right and lower left images from Landsat TM sensor. 1999). while the exposure of saline soils and desertification . 2000). water from the two major rivers entering this inland sea (Amu Darya and Syr Darya) were diverted through engineering projects primarily for irrigation but also for storage. Change in the area of the Aral Sea.

Our focus in this chapter is to illuminate some of the relationships between LCLUC processes and water quality and quantity on the scale relevant to local and regional issues. Therefore. Water vulnerability is typically cast as a human supply and demand problem. However. 2001). (Chapter 17). during the 1960s and 1970s provided an economic benefit from the water engineering projects. 2000). the impacts are more diverse and can be more acute. While case studies illuminate some of the direct cause and effect relationships between LCLUC and water quality and quantity... In regions of the world where supply far exceeds demand. and human systems have some dependence on natural systems for ecosystems goods and services (Costanza. However. from a land cover and land use perspective there is an unequal distribution of a resource for which the demand varies greatly (Vörösmarty et al. 2000). 2000). limiting the usefulness of aggregated global analysis. The impacts from such projects primarily effect aquatic systems through dams that change the natural flow and channels of rivers (Rosenberg et al. and it has been estimated that nearly half of all irrigated lands (8x104 km2) in the Aral Sea basin are affected (Heaven et al. Global assessments of water supply and consumption are useful in cataloging the major categories of water demand and in pointing to the rise in consumption against a fixed supply (L’vovich et al. where terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity is concentrated along watercourses and in direct competition with the demands placed by the agricultural. 2 Water Quantity: Resource Allocation and Impacts Water is a fundamental requirement of all living things. 1990)..LAND USE AND HYDROLOGY 259 has been accompanied by environmental health impacts (Small et al. the main issues are on water engineering projects to control flooding or for power generation. Rather. industrial. 2001b). agricultural production has been declining over the last two decades due to salinization and water logging resulting from poor irrigation practices.. Those relationships that affect climate/weather are treated by Bonan et al. As the regions grow larger. 2002). natural systems are equally dependent on an adequate supply of water. it is not possible to provide an exhaustive assessment of water quantity issues with respect to LCLUC. Yet the distribution of water on the Earth’s surface is not uniform and neither is the distribution of population or demand.. Given the scope of this topic. where climate and the landscape establish the supply and human systems make demands on the supply. The enormous expansion in irrigated agricultural production. This is a particularly persistent and growing problem in arid and semi-arid regions of the world. and thus water quantity has a direct impact on human and natural systems. Vulnerability is established when human demand exceeds some threshold in supply (Vörösmarty et al. we will examine in some greater detail water allocation issues in arid and semi-arid regions to provide examples of the problems and relationships to LCLUC. the effects and ability to quantify become more diffuse. primarily in cotton. these relationships become more difficult to assess and quantify on larger scales (regional to national to continental to global). and domestic sectors of society on the resource. Furthermore water distribution and demand do not necessarily co-vary. In regions of the world where supply and demand volumes are more closely matched. Assessments of other processes ..

used for grazing. These are lands that were formerly covered by native ecosystems.g.g. or for dryland farming. 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Global Irrigated Land Area Area (x1000 km ) 2 Year 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Global Irrigated Land Area Area (x1000 km ) 2 Year Figure 2. Rosenberg et al. 1999).5 x 106 km2. 1997). 1997). For example. Shiklomanov. The rate of increase over the last 50 years is 3. The irrigation of cropland is the primary application of water in arid and semi-arid regions. and this has resulted in an enormous benefit to food security. and managed for agricultural production. Postal (1994. 40% of current global food production is generated on the 15-20% of agricultural land that is irrigated (e. 2000). they are now tilled. Global irrigated land area from 1800 to the present (top) and over the last 50 years (bottom)..1 IRRIGATION AND LAND USE/LAND COVER Global land area currently classified as irrigated agriculture has been estimated to be 2. 2. Brown et al.260 MUSTARD AND FISHER have recently been covered elsewhere (e. Eckholm (1976). as the dollar value of this production is 6-7 times that of non-irrigated cropland and >30 times that of rangeland (Crosson. By some estimates. As irrigated lands. irrigated. (1997).4x104 km2/yr. it has been estimated that expansion of irrigated lands increased food production by 50% between 1960 and 1985. Thus irrigated lands are 3 times as productive as non-irrigated cropland. The amount of irrigated land has increased . Warne (1970). Data compiled from Brown (1985. 1994). but also provide a greater value.

It is not clear from the available data whether the rate of increase has slowed over the last decade. (2003a. 2000). diminished groundwater or reallocation of surface water) and degradation of the land (e. Lemly et al. decline of aquatic species) have been well documented by a number of recent reviews (e. the amount of irrigated land increased 6 fold. Nevertheless the data shown in Figure 2b exhibit an apparent linear increase in the global estimates of irrigated land of 3. Agricultural activity (irrigated crops and pasture) peaked in the 1920s followed by large-scale abandonment due to a reallocation of the water resources.. from 175 km2 to 1115 km2. 2003b) provide important insights into this question.LAND USE AND HYDROLOGY 261 dramatically over the last two centuries (Figure 2) and has more than doubled between 1950 and 2000. 2.). Yale University. are being driven by a complex set of factors. This water makes up a significant fraction of the fresh water budget for Los Angeles. Rosenberg et al. In the developed world the rate of abandonment is more or less balanced by the rate of development of new irrigated land resulting in a relatively stable total area of irrigated land over the last decade. What is not as well understood or recognized are the impacts of shifting reallocations of water for irrigation or domestic/industrial use on native ecosystems. Turkey). while other parts of the world are experiencing explosive growth in irrigation.g.. and attendant impacts on land cover.g. through interbasin transfer. including the governments’ desires to improve food security as well as to establish claims on the water resources (R. pers. One area exhibiting expansion is along the Euphrates River in the Middle East (Syria. driven by huge government funded water engineering projects. Particularly. for domestic/agricultural/industrial use by Los Angles. comm.g. what is the ability of native ecosystems to adapt and recover following abandonment of agricultural lands or through mitigation efforts to restore water to impacted systems? A series of studies by Elmore et al.2 IMPACTS OF RESOURCE ALLOCATION The immediate environmental impacts of the reallocation of water resources (e. 2003b) studied the behavior of semi-arid ecosystems in the Owens Valley of California. Vörösmarty and Sahagian. Owens Valley has a 130-year history of land use centered on the abundant fresh water resources in this semi-arid landscape. and virtually all of the surface runoff has been exported from the valley since the 1920s. (2003a.4 x 104 km2 y-1 over the last 50 years. Smith. much of the agricultural land was colonized by a mixture of perennial shrubs and annual grasses and plants. . The massive changes in water use. Irrigated lands are abandoned due to myriad factors including loss of reliable water supply (e. 2000. Following abandonment. Elmore et al. Between 1990 and 2000. salinization and water logging).g. CA. as there is some uncertainty on the estimates of total land irrigated and there is annual variability on the specific land parcels irrigated. while the pattern of land use shifted where irrigated lands along the river bottoms and floodplains were abandoned for upland sites (Figure 3). loss of wetlands. 2000. The specific parcels of land that are irrigated and managed for agriculture on an annual basis are not necessarily constant.

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Recognizing that these examples are not a complete assessment of all possible drivers and impacts related to LCLUC and water quantity. 2000). This response was detected with remotely sensed data where large increases in the amount of green cover during wet years were followed by large decreases in green cover during dry years. It is unknown if the observed impacts represented a permanent shift as these studies only cover a twenty year period. Soils destabilized by agriculture become susceptible to wind erosion following abandonment causing deflation in the former fields and deposition down wind. 2001). in addition to the direct impacts on riparian and aquatic systems. 2. but also extend the reach of our understanding into regions with diverse socio-economic drivers and land use histories. it is apparent that a basic framework for assessing these problems is understood. and the margins for resilience (capacity to withstand climatic variability) are shrinking in the presence of high water demand. Other analyses not reported on here support these basic principles. In addition to changes in species composition similar to that documented in Owens Valley.3 REGIONAL TO GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS The case studies described above provide concrete examples of the relationship between LCLUC and water resources. as well as impacts from groundwater withdrawn in the 1970s. LCLUC impacts on hydrology are focused around drainage systems. which might explain the persistence of the land-use legacy in Owens Valley. The vegetation on these lands also showed an amplified response in green activity to annual rainfall compared to the land dominated by native species. In regions where ecosystems are water limited and agriculture sustains a substantial benefit by irrigation. In humid and temperate regions where upland ecosystems as well as agriculture are sustained by rainfall. Here direct impacts are on the riparian and aquatic systems through water engineering (Rosenberg et al. and lower species diversity than lands that were never cultivated. ecological impacts of prior agricultural activity on lands abandoned for 80 years. This results in changes in the natural processes of nutrient accumulation and availability through deflation and burial aggravating the impacts. the common threads are that in arid and semi-arid regions water vulnerability is high.LAND USE AND HYDROLOGY 263 use (agriculture) had a legacy that was evident 80 years after land abandonment. The impacts resulting from the abandonment of irrigated agricultural land have also been documented in regions where groundwater is far from the surface (Okin et al. agricultural abandonment is relatively common due to degradation and/or shifting priorities in allocation. Thus the drought and the groundwater pumping changed the fundamental ecological functioning characteristics of these areas. strongly suggest that these shifts are long-term if not permanent. Thus there are direct and indirect impacts of abandonment that persist over the long-term. .. However. While the specific details in these region differ. there are significant impacts on soil properties. Previously cultivated lands showed a higher abundance of opportunistic shrubs and non-native annual plants. These example case studies provide detailed insight into the immediate impacts of water resource allocation and the legacy of land use. LCLUC impacts can extend many tens of kilometers from the actual water source and affect large land areas..

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but continuous discharge generated by groundwater inputs to streams between storm events. There is a base flow resulting from previous rain water infiltrated into soils and groundwater as well as storm flow resulting from direct rainfall inputs to the stream surface and from overland flow during rain events. 2002). In mesic areas with precipitation of ~1 m y-1 (e.1 SOME BASIC HYDROLOGY AND BIOGEOCHEMISTRY 265 Stream flows typically have two main components. Water yields are the quantity of stream flow per unit watershed area per unit time. Data from Fisher et al. This ratio varies from 0. (2) plant transpiration (a biological process involving water vapor loss during photosynthesis). (1998). water yields are ~40 cm y-1 or about 40% of rainfall. much of the US east of the Mississippi River).LAND USE AND HYDROLOGY 3 Water Quality 3. Water yields reported as depth time-1 (cm y-1 or inches y-1) are immediately comparable to rain inputs (also in cm y-1 or inches y-1) and lead to a simple evaluation of the fraction of rainfall that is discharged from a watershed as surface water discharge.g. and storm flow is a rapidly changing component of discharge which creates hydrographs responding to rain events (Figure 5). Figure 5.3 to 0. The remainder of the rain water not exiting a basin as stream flow is returned to the atmosphere by (1) evaporation (a physical process). Base flow is the slow.. Units for water yields are all equivalent to depth time-1. increasing with latitude as mean annual temperature decreases (Van Breeman et al. Water yields may also be expressed as ft3 s-1 mile-2 or inches y-1 (reported in USGS Water Resources Reports).6. Example of a storm hydrograph observed at USGS gauging station 01491000 at Greensboro MD from a rain event centered on 15 Feb 1984 (water year day 137). which is equivalent to volume discharged per unit time per unit watershed area (cm3 water cm-2 watershed area y-1 or cm y-1). or (3) deep seepage losses from the watershed .

.. 3. with reduced base flows between storm events. usually small compared to evaporation and transpiration). Thus.g. and can easily be compared with watershed inputs such as fertilizer application rates (e. Water yields increased by an average of 20 cm y-1 in watersheds with complete forest removal. as described below. Evaporation + transpiration. The decreased groundwater inflows cause a rapid drop in flows after the end of the rain event. export may also be normalized to basin area. lbs acre-1 y-1 or kg ha-1 y-1). and the reduced abundance of plants results in much lower evapotranspiration. export = flow (m3 y-1) * average concentration (g m-3) = g y-1). forests usually have much higher rates of evapotranspiration than agricultural or urban land uses. As a result. with a limited number of observed concentrations. As for discharge. Impervious surfaces such as roads. Similarly. as for water yields. with higher discharges and power for bank erosion. Due to higher plant biomass. forested landscapes also export the smallest amount of dissolved and particulate material. Elemental export from a watershed is estimated as stream flow x concentrations. The net effect is that storm hydrographs have a larger volume of water over a shorter period of time in urbanized areas. roofs. also used are lbs acre-1 y-1 (~equivalent to kg ha-1 y-1). Considering that watersheds with mixed land cover currently have water yields of ~40 cm y-1 (e.g. Termed “export coefficients”. and parking lots cause storm responses to be faster. continuous or near-continuous stream flow data are available. Typically. elemental or other export coefficients can also be expressed as a fraction of inputs. Conversion of forest to anthropogenic land uses increases both the total flow (Figure 6) as well as the volume and erosive power of storm flows while decreasing base flows. Forested land cover is the most retentive of water as well as particulates and dissolved materials. Export coefficients are also useful as a modeling tool because they are usually strongly influenced by land cover and land use.266 MUSTARD AND FISHER to regional groundwater (a geological process. It is clear from the above examples that forested landscapes produce the most steady and smallest stream discharges of any land cover. collectively referred to as “evapotranspiration” or “ET”.g. leaving less water available for groundwater or overland flows to streams. 1982). as described below. conversion of forest land cover to anthropogenic land uses in mesic areas of the temperate zone usually results in increased water yields (Figure 6). are often lumped as one vapor loss term with the same units as water yield. Export coefficients are essentially areal fluxes of materials exported from a watershed. Urban land cover also influences water yields. removal of forest land cover clearly has significant impacts on water yields. Van Breemen et al. . the SI units are usually kg ha-1 y-1 or kg km-2 y-1.. 2002). These observations are based on forest logging in mesic to wet areas (Bosch and Hewlett. Flow-weighting or other estimators are used to combine these data to calculate export at a time scale of months or years (e.2 EFFECTS OF LAND USE ON WATER YIELDS Water yields are strongly influenced by land use and land cover. Impervious surfaces directly shunt rainfall to overland flow and prevent infiltration to groundwater.. and there was no significant difference between removal of conifer and hardwood forests. whereas anthropogenic land uses such as agriculture and urban areas export much higher amounts.

These changes have concentrated the production of food into smaller areas than in the 19th century.LAND USE AND HYDROLOGY 267 Figure 6. Sampling and dating of groundwater on the agriculturally dominated Delmarva Peninsula by Bohlke and Denver (1995) showed historical increases in groundwater nitrate that largely paralleled the fertilizer N application rates (Figure 7.3 EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURE ON NUTRIENT YIELDS The agricultural production of food for human populations is an essential need of modern societies.gov/nwis/gw). One of the unintended consequences of the increased intensity of agricultural land use has been the contamination of shallow groundwater with nitrate (Figure 7). . Water yields increase with less forest cover due to lower ET. and (2) after World War II there were large increases in crop yields from smaller areas of land using commercial fertilizers containing primarily nitrogen (N). Inexpensive commercial fertilizers became available after World War II as munitions factories were converted to the production of agricultural N fertilizers. Within the last 100 years. reduced the number of people involved in food production. lower panel). upper panel). and greatly increased the intensity of agricultural land use. and application rates on agricultural lands increased exponentially for 30 years (Figure 7. and potassium (K). Data source: Bosch and Hewlett (1982). 3. with a large fraction of the population in urban areas dependent on a small number of agricultural workers. Water yields from temperate watersheds with varying amounts of conversion of forest to anthropogenic land uses.usgs. two major changes in agriculture have occurred in North America and Europe: (1) since the beginning of the 20th century a largely agrarian population has gradually shifted to an urban base. Nitrate concentrations of 10-20 mg NO3-N L-1 are frequently observed in most shallow aquifers in North America in agricultural areas (http://waterdata. phosphorus (P).

but bacterial processes in soils oxidize urea and NH3 to produce highly soluble NO3. 1998). During late fall and early winter when hydrologic connections are reestablished after the seasonal lowering of groundwater in summer. rain water infiltrating to groundwater may carry high concentrations of nitrate (1. termed “nitrification”. NH3) are converted to highly soluble NO3 by biological activities in soils. is a natural heterotrophic response to excess N.268 MUSTARD AND FISHER and these waters are undrinkable due to the tendency of nitrate concentrations >10 mg NO3-N L-1 to cause methemoglobinemia in infants and to form carcinogenic nitrosamines in the human intestine (US EPA 1976. The result is that readily sorbed forms of N (urea. which can be greatly reduced by winter cover crops that maintain some plant N uptake during the cold season (Staver and Brinsfield. Nitrate (NO3) is almost never applied as N fertilizer. Urea or ammonia (NH3) are more common. Historical record of fertilizer sales and groundwater nitrate under agricultural areas on the Delmarva Peninsula. Aber 1992). Heathwaite et al.. 1998). This transfer of nitrate from the root zone to groundwater is a flushing of excess N. . Fertilizer sales in each county are assumed to represent application rates. Figure 7.5-15 mM NO3 or 20-200 mg NO3-N L-1) from the root zone of heavily fertilized agricultural areas into shallow aquifers (Staver and Brinsfield. 1993).. which yields energy for the nitrifying organisms (e.g. This process.

LAND USE AND HYDROLOGY 269 Over the last twenty years. Furthermore. represents ~70% in streams on the Delmarva Peninsula (Fisher Figure 8. 2000). and the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program (CREP) now provides funds to create riparian zones along streams to intercept nitrate in contaminated groundwater. Better drained piedmont streams have even higher concentrations of NO3 for the same amount of agriculture (Jordan et al. However. These stream concentrations from the Choptank River basin on the Delmarva Peninsula are annual means of TN. whereas forested areas have the lowest amounts of NO3 due to lower inputs and uptake by plants. in the late 1990's concerns about nitrate in groundwater have prompted the US Dept. Due to the large differences in groundwater NO3 under varying land uses (Figures 7-8).. although the data of Jordan et al. NO3 is the single largest component of the TN. wetlands. (2000) have estimated the land use adjusted NO3 in surface groundwater of sub-basins of the Choptank watershed and compared these to base flow nitrate of streams draining these sub-basins. in a watershed survey of the mid-Atlantic region. The effect of agriculture on stream chemistry is not limited to the agriculturally dominated Delmarva Peninsula. As agriculture expands to >70% of land cover.. (1993).g. and the fractional decrease in observed baseflow nitrate . forested areas along streams) are converted to agriculture. 1998) means that a decade will probably be required for the effects of nutrient management to be readily observable. not all NO3 in groundwater appears in baseflow.. 1997). with similar concentrations. Using the average land use specific NO3 concentrations in Figure 9. unsewered urban areas have similarly high NO3. baseflow nitrate was less than the estimated groundwater nitrate. (1997) are <70 % agriculture and appear linear. In 34 sub-basins. fertilizer applications in North America appear to have largely stabilized (e. Other land uses also influence groundwater nitrate (Figure 8). Jordan et al. 1998. Although agricultural land use has the highest nitrate concentrations in groundwater. particularly at high % agriculture and low forest. Figure 7).. Lee et al. and NO3 concentrations in streams rise exponentially. the multi-year residence time of most groundwater (Focazio et al. normal landscape traps for NO3 (e.g. the NO3 concentrations of streams reflects the spatially varying distributions of land uses in watersheds (Figure 9). Norton and Fisher. The production of human food (agriculture) and the disposal of human waste in septic systems are clearly the principal causes of elevated NO3 in groundwater. Data of Hamilton et al. (1997) showed relationships in coastal plain streams similar to those in Figure 9. Note that the effect of decreasing forest cover and increasing agriculture is not linear. trations in groundwater. of Agriculture (USDA) to require nutrient management plans to reduce groundwater nitrate in agricultural areas. The effect of varying land use on nitrate concenet al. Despite the strong relationships described above.

.

aerial photographs..g. but severely disturbed areas such as animal feedlots have export coefficients ~100 X higher than other types of agricultural land use. and urbanization on watershed nutrient export. 1998).. The model was carefully calibrated at a USGS gauging station over an 11 water year period with detailed stream chemistry data using many of the empirical principles described above (Lee et al. and these discharges may represent a large fraction of the N and P inputs to aquatic systems (e.LAND USE AND HYDROLOGY 271 orders of magnitude. Small. conversion of all land uses to forest. N may be discharged in many forms. a hydrochemical model which has been calibrated under current conditions may be used to simulate the effects of manipulations which could never be done in practice within a watershed. 1989). 2001). the integrated impacts of human populations (both from agricultural production of food and disposal of human wastes) result in strong positive correlations between human population density and river NO3 concentrations and export (Peierls et al. but which incorporate empirically derived principles such as those summarized above.. usually to surface waters (e. urbanization. we have performed model manipulations to isolate the effects of fertilizer applications. Benitez and Fisher in revision). e. etc. 3. While it can be argued that models tell us only what we already know. Valiela et al. enriching local groundwater. satellite imagery. Below we describe the model results from a sub-basin within . We have used this model to estimate the biogeochemical effects of land use changes in the Choptank basin over the last 150 years observed in historical maps.5 MODELING OF WATERSHED HYDROLOGY AND CHEMISTRY The empirical studies described above provide a strong conceptual basis for hydrochemical modeling of watershed export. 2000).. the projected conditions may be useful to select the best of several possible options. We have used the hydrochemical model Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) to examine the effects of land use/cover change in the Choptank River basin.. As shown above in Figure 8. Ryding and Rast.g. Using the estimated land cover and population changes. In more densely populated areas served by sewage systems.g.. For example. septic systems in less densely populated areas oxidize organic N from human waste and produce NO3. Efforts to reduce eutrophication of aquatic systems usually begin with diversion or upgrading of treatments in sewage systems to reduce N and P inputs (e. Ryding and Rast. human waste. changes in human waste disposal. While the results of such model scenarios are predictions based on inputs often well outside of the calibration conditions. 1989. it is also true that models can be used to conduct “experiments” (model scenarios) that are empirically impractical. and at the annual time scale the model has estimated validation errors of 5-10% for export of water and N and ~35% for export of P (Lee et al. 2001). In large river basins. removal of human populations. and human population data from the US Bureau of the Census (Benitez 2002.4 EFFECTS OF HUMAN POPULATIONS ON NUTRIENT EXPORT Human populations also directly influence nutrient concentrations and export from basins. Fisher et al.. (1992) have shown that increasing housing density in unsewered areas on the sandy soils of Cape Cod results in increasing NO3 in groundwater. 1991). 3. Lee et al. as in EPA’s current TMDL process.g.

Tilghman Island is an island of 5. which has experienced fertilizer applications as well as urbanization and growth of human populations. 1999). N. in review). a tributary of Chesapeake Bay. In 1850 Tilghman Island was primarily forest and agricultural lands. and P from this basin. the prime location of Tilghman Island on the Chesapeake encouraged the development of tourism. We used the observed land use/cover changes (Figure 10) as inputs to GWLF to estimate the overall effect of the land use changes. Between 1850 and 1980 there was a net loss of forest and increases in agriculture and urban areas as the population density increased to ~0. and urbanization and human population densities increased to ~30% and >1 ha-1.9 km2 connected by a bridge to a peninsula of land which lies between the main axis of Chesapeake Bay and the Choptank estuary. this small region of the Choptank Basin has experienced both the conversion of the original forest cover to agriculture as well as significant urbanization. aerial photographs. application of fertilizers to agricultural lands increased by several orders of magnitude at a rate similar to other regions of the US (Goolsby et al. During this period. and fertilizer application rates at Tilghman Island estimated from historical maps. Historical changes in land use. satellite imagery. Figure 10.. and a human population density ~0. Benitez and Fisher. human populations.5 ha-1. However.05 ha-1 (Figure 10).272 MUSTARD AND FISHER the Choptank. and census data (Benitez 2002. Thus. with small amounts of wetlands and urban areas. primarily at the expense of agricultural land. respectively. We used the GWLF model to estimate the effects of these changes on export of water. beginning in ~1980. and then we used model scenarios in which we manipulated the history of Tilghman Island for comparison with the full model scenario to separate the individual effects of .

and disposal of human wastes. less manipulative model scenarios were used to estimate the individual effects of conversion of forest to agriculture. Using the advantage of modeling.2 kg N and 0. and urban areas.4 kg P ha-1 y-1). The estimated export coefficients under these conditions were quite low. application of fertilizers. Both N and P export appear to have increased ~2 fold from the all-forest scenario (green arrows in Figure 11) to ~1. 2000).23 kg P ha-1 y-1. The subsequent application of fertilizers to agricultural lands in the second half of . agriculture..7 kg N and 0. Other. these estimated increases in nutrient export indicate the magnitude of the anthropogenic effects on Tilghman Island and are consistent with currently observed exports of forests (Clarke et al. Two effects of agriculture were examined.LAND USE AND HYDROLOGY 273 conversion to agriculture. application of fertilizers. Thus. and reforested the entire basin. and lime were increasingly employed later in the 19th century (Benitez and Fisher in review). the model output for 1850 conditions under low population density and ~60% agriculture is an estimate of the effect of the conversion of forest to a primarily agricultural landscape. conversion of forest to agriculture was not accompanied by application of fertilizers. Prior to 1850. approximately 20 and 4 times lower than those currently estimated (18 kg N and 0. 0. Although this model scenario is farthest from the calibration conditions. although manures.09 kg P ha-1 y-1. Changes in N and P export from Tilghman Island using the hydrochemical model GWLF. and disposal of human wastes (Figure 11). guano. we removed the people. Figure 11. The first model scenario was the estimation of N and P export under forest prior to European colonization.

increases in export yields were small compared to the 1850 conditions (<2 kg N and ~0.3 kg P ha-1 y-1). many regions of the world are reaching a state of vulnerability with respect to water quantity and quality. we show the combined effects of withheld fertilizer applications and human waste (lowest lines in each panel).274 MUSTARD AND FISHER the 20th century had a much greater impact on N export yields than the initial conversion to agriculture. The effect of waste disposal from human populations was estimated in another model scenario. For both N and P. particularly if human populations continue to increase. water diverted from a river for domestic use may be returned to the same river through municipal effluent. P export was little affected by withholding of fertilizers because storm flows do not erode large amounts of surface soils under the relatively low relief of Tilghman Island (maximum elevation 3 m asl). For example. used for irrigation and thus largely evaporated. a larger effect of storm flows would be expected. Comparing the full model scenario with the one in which fertilizers were withheld. 4 Summary The specific drivers and effects of land use and land cover change on water quantity and quality tend to be specific to each region. In particular. Human populations were permitted to develop as observed in census data. Thus conversion of forest to agriculture in the 18th and 19th centuries appears to have increased N and P export coefficients by a factor of 2. although this was not true for P export. Nevertheless. as we have outlined this chapter. or removed entirely from the system by interbasin transfer. there are commonalities relevant to the impacts of LCLUC on hydrology: land cover directly affects stream and river flow. . and this situation is likely to worsen over the next 25 years. but all waste discharges were set to zero. The effect of the latter was estimated to be about a doubling of N export yields and an increase of ~30 % for P export yields. As a result. indicating that most of the estimated increases in nutrient yields from Tilghman Island for the 1990's was due to application of fertilizers to agricultural lands and disposal of human wastes. the model results suggest that application of agricultural N fertilizer was responsible for 30-70% of the historical increases in N yields. In areas with greater topographic relief. we have identified the production of food in agricultural areas and the disposal of human waste from populated areas as the primary causes of degraded water quality. For simplicity in Figure 11. but application of fertilizers in the 20th century resulted in a factor of ~5 increase in N export and an almost undetectable effect on P export. and land use directly impacts water quality.

1998. W. Clarke. Ecosystems (in review). M. California.. Tree 7: 220-223 Arnell. C. Rep. 55: 3-23 Brown. Loawrence. A. Vital Signs 1997: The Environmental Trends that are Shaping our Future.. Wiegert. Reckhow. Aug. Delaware. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts. New York. Federal Register 64: 23834-23835 Hamilton. 1998. Geological Survey Open File Report 93-40. New York. Focazio. S. M. Denver. Regional patterns of great basin community response to changes in water resources: Owens Valley.. L. Hydrology and Water Resources.W. H. E. 2001. Stensland. Norton and Co. and D. R. J. Elmore. J. ed. and Distribution of Nitrate and other Inorganic Constituents in the Surficial Aquifer. and isotopic analyses to resolve the history and fate of nitrate contamination in two agricultural watersheds. A. eds. 1985.. Defries. valuation. Backman. Rabalais. Howe. Fisher. J. C. J. . and the need for ecological economics. Liu. S. Hooper. Benitez. US Geol. P. B. J. J. Towson.. 2000. 2003. Report of Task Group 3 to the White House Committee on Environment and Natural Resources. Water Res. 1982. Renner. Washington. R. J. R. B. California. Norton and Co.LAND USE AND HYDROLOGY 5 References 275 Aber. A. T. Atlantic coastal plain. 1999. N. Lee. Coe.. Linda Starke. T. J. N. Combined use of groundwater dating. and M. Compagnucci. Burt. Bohlke. 2002. John Wiley and Sons. Plummer. T. Powars. 1992. Overview . Eastern USA. Ecosystems (sub. W. G. D. Shiklomanov. E. and T. T. D. R. and C. Water resources management in the Aral basin: A river basin management model for the Syr Darya. S. Shedlock. Beaulac. J. S. Water-quality Assessment of the Delmarva Peninsula. Chapter 17 in Gutman et al. J. Invest.. L. Da Cunha. Heathwaite. Norton. O. R. 2003. A. Leary. Eckholm. and S. Inc. pps. Fisher. Ojima. Elmore. M. D. 1994. Losing Ground: Environmental Stress and World Food Prospects. Maryland.. Tanton. D. and Virginia – Effects of Agricultural Activities on.10-19. J. N. S. Keeney. Manning. DC. 2000. Historical land cover conversion (1665-1850) in the Choptank watershed. Hanaki. K. Amer. P. M. Lock. J. R. R. U. R. F. Reducing Hunger. L. R.. Synthesizing Drainage Basin Inputs to Coastal Systems. A. R. F. 1997. New York. J. Heathwaite et al. Phillips and R. 2002. 539 pps. Mast. L. Hypoxia Work Group. J. J. I.) Nitrate: processes. Hamburg. NY Heaven. B. Battaglin. Trudgill.. Nutrient concentrations and yields in undeveloped stream basins of the United States. Water-Res. and S. Surv. N. L. Berndt. R. and K. A. P. Water Res. Vision.. 81-101 IN: J. pp. 36: 849-860 Costanza. NY USA. 3-21 IN: A. M. L. R. and S. G.23-41. Howarth. M. and J. G. Irrig.. United Kingdon and New York. Busenberg. A. D.) Estuarine Science: A Synthetic Approach to Research and Practice. 97-4225 Goolsby. 193-233. Dokken. M.W. and G. D.. P. White (eds. in State of the World-1985. and water-quality data from a survey of springsw. T. N. Water Air Soil Poll. R. J. J. S. W. Pps. patterns and management. Science of Land Use Land Cover Change Bosch.. Hollibaugh. and D. T. 2003. Hewlett. J.. Adaptation. Environment 39: 4-31. Vorosmarty. (ed. G. World Watch. D. 2001. H. and E. Mueller. J. Cambridge. Maryland. K.. 31: 2319-2339 Bonan. Canziani. A. F. Nitrogen cycling and nitrogen saturation in temperate forest ecosystems. K.S. M. Will Erosion Threaten Agricultural Productivity?. Mustard. Correll. 1976. W. 7(5) pp. J. R. Koloskov. Res. Brown. Mustard. B.Norton and Co. Aulenbach. 1982. chemical. Water Resource Bulletin 18: 1013. Bioscience 51: 459-468.)). C. E. Hopkinson. A. 1995. J. R. A. T.-Y. Richey. J. 1997. Land Use and Climate. Who Will Feed China?. 105: 387-397 Fisher. Artz. Costanza. J. M. S.. 51: 108-119. Crosson.. in revision Nov 2002) Bohlke. Island Press. J. Brown. 1993. Agricultural legacies and their impacts on ecosystem structure and the stability of green cover in the Great Basin: Owens Valley. Hobbie (ed.W. Preliminary estimates of residence times and apparent ages of ground water in the Chespeake Bay watershed. and R. 1993. J. P. Flavin. and M. K. Mailu. L. Hydrology and chemistry of the Choptank River basin in the Chesapeake Bay drainage. and Vulnerability (McCarthy. L. and T.. Manning. Denver. C. Ecological Applications 13(2): 443-460. Drain. G. W. C. Assoc. P. Flux and sources of nutrients in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River basin. values. A review of catchment experiments to determine the effect of vegetation changes on water yield and evapotranspiration. S.the nitrate issue. Cambridge University Press. A. Benitez. and J. E. W. Stakhiv. K. Hydrol. P. Maryland.

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Although we refer throughout this chapter most commonly to species diversity. © 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. land use change alters biodiversity at all of these levels. Earth Systems Science Interdisciplinary Center. 1998). 1999. Bozeman.). Turner et al. mineral development. 2001. Biodiversity. HANSEN1. 2002). RUTH S. . rapid change among each of these four phases of economic development and the resulting land use trajectories continues today.. These phases are associated with a trajectory of land use change. undergoing initial logging and conversion of wildlands to extractive plantations or agricultural lands. agricultural expansion. DC 20546 2 1 Introduction The expansion and intensification of human land use in recent decades is resulting in major changes in biodiversity. This tropical deforestation is particularly significant for biodiversity because these forests contain from one half to two-thirds of the world’s plant and animal species 277 G. Ecology Department. frontier (resource extraction from natural ecosystems).CHAPTER 16 LAND USE CHANGE AND BIODIVERSITY A Synthesis of Rates and Consequences during the Period of Satellite Imagery ANDREW J. road construction projects. (eds. Although the precise rates of tropical deforestation are a matter of debate. At the other extreme.. WOODY TURNER3 1 Montana State University. While many temperate and tropical landscapes have been heavily affected by land use for centuries. land use continues to intensify in formerly occupied areas and expand into what were formerly natural habitats. Moran et al. Printed in the Netherlands. Land Change Science. Mustard et al. through increasingly intense land use to urban uses (Figure 1). (this volume) synthesizes four phases of land use along a trajectory of economic development.Computer and Space Sciences Building and Department of Geography. especially during the period of satellite data availability. land use change commonly leads to more homogenous landscapes reducing ecosystem diversity (Flather et al. Central America. Mail Code YS. Global satellite-based data sets. and infrastructure projects since 1970 have led to initial human settlement and rates of deforestation of 0. Many tropical forests are in the frontier stage. Washington. These analyses reveal that in these recent decades. refers to the diversity of life at all levels of organization. 277–299. in Amazonia. useful for analyses of rates of land use change since the 1970s.. MD 20742 3 NASA Office of Earth Science. which generally proceeds from wildlands. College Park. and Indonesia. The advent of remotely sensed data from satellites has provided a basis for quantifying rates of land use change around the world and consequences on biodiversity. and industrialization and urbanization. reduced habitat from land use change decreases population sizes and reduces genetic diversity within a species. from genetic to species to ecosystem (Levin 2000).0% per year (Curran et al. MT 59717 University of Maryland. a term that has entered into common usage only in the last twenty years. Gutman et al. For example. These are: natural.25-1. This paper aims to summarize what we have learned about interactions between land use and biodiversity. DEFRIES2.. 2181 Lefrak Hall. are now becoming available.

gov/) has been a major vehicle stimulating the use of satellite data for better understanding the rates and consequences of land use change. Reaka-Kudla 1997).. these rapid changes over the last 30-50 years are heavily affecting the shrinking remaining natural habitats and reorganizing plant and animal communities in managed landscapes. When coupled with simulation models. 6-25/km ) was the fastest growing land use type in the US since 1950 and now covers 25% of the area of the contiguous US (Brown et al. ca. intact habitats were already reduced substantially in area and the current habitat conversion is pushing many ecosystems past thresholds of minimum size (Brooks et al. technology. 2001). The NASA Land Cover Land Use Change Program (LCLUC) (http://lcluc. rates..gsfc. And in the developed world. 1993. A variety of sensors are now in space collecting data about the earth at different temporal frequencies and spatial scales (Turner et al. 1999a)..278 HANSEN.. 2001). These satellite data are increasingly used in conservation planning in conjunction with data on species distributions to prioritize locations in greatest need of conservation and to monitor important habitats (Steininger et al. new land cover conversion and intensified use of already converted lands are occurring globally. urban societies are growing and sprawling from cities to rural landscapes in pursuit of natural amenities (Hansen and 2 Brown. A given location may remain in wildland or proceed through one or more of the transitions. DEFRIES AND TURNER (Wilson 1988. and consequences of land use change has been greatly improved by application of satellite-based remote sensing and related global data sets. Fueled by increasing human populations.. we are learning that land use change around even our largest reserves can negatively impact biodiversity and ecosystem processes within these reserves (Hansen and Rotella. Accurate maps of the spatial distribution of land use were not widely available prior to the advent of earth-observing satellites in the 1970s. From Hansen et al. cultures practicing low-intensity agriculture or nomadic pastoralism are being replaced by cultures using increasingly permanent and intense agriculture. 2001) and other parts of the developing world. Urban Suburban Wildland Resource Extraction Exurban Agriculture Figure 1. Thirdly. Second. Steininger et al. in review). in review). Some of these sensors have now been in place long enough to allow quantification of change in land use based on comparisons of imagery recorded at two different time periods (Skole and Tucker. while the global network of nature reserves has been expanded in recent decades (IUCN 1997). The current wave of land use change is having strong effects on biodiversity for several reasons. . with especially fast rates in the tropics (Houghton 1994). 2003). Typical trajectory of land use change.nasa. 2002). satellite data can form the basis of projections of regional landscapes under various future management scenarios in order to assess the implications for biodiversity. and wealth. In sub-Saharan Africa (Serneels and Lambin. Exurban development (low-density homes. in review. A regional landscape is typically a mosaic of all of these stages. Our understanding of the locations. First.

LAND USE CHANGE AND BIODIVERSITY 279 The goal of this chapter is to synthesize current knowledge on the influences of recent land use change on biodiversity. drawing heavily on NASA LCLUC case studies. The pathways by which land cover and land use influence biodiversity including the dynamics of species and the structure of communities... 1995. . biotic interactions and human disturbance (Marzluff 2000. 2000). Data from remote sensing and other data (e.. Perhaps the most obvious repercussions of land use change are loss. 1999b) indicate that community diversity declines as habitat area is reduced as a function of the well-known species area relationship. Conversion of natural habitats to agriculture or other intensive human land uses causes these areas to become inhospitable for many native species. Then. Remote Sensing Ancillary Data Land Cover and use Ecological Processes Habitat Biotic Interactions Human Disturbance Demography of Species Community Diversity Figure 2. we highlight promising conservation and management efforts aimed at better sustaining biodiversity and human communities undergoing land use change. Established theories in island biogeography (Rosenzweig 1995) and empirical evidence (Pimm and Askins. in review) (Figure 2). 2 Relevance of Land Cover and Use to Biodiversity Of the multiple drivers of changes in biodiversity. We then summarize the use of remote sensing for studying land use change and its influence on biodiversity. Brooks et al.. Finally. human socioeconomics) provide a means of quantifying land cover and land use and understanding its impacts on biodiversity. Hansen et al. and degradation of habitat. Changes in land cover and land use influence biodiversity by altering habitat. These mechanisms act on the population dynamics of individual species via changes in rates of birth. The aggregate responses of individual species define patterns of community diversity. we examine the consequences of land use change for biodiversity.g. ecological processes. climate. fragmentation. death. We first review the ways by which land use change affects biodiversity. and movements. land use change will likely have the largest effect on terrestrial ecosystems in the coming century (Sala et al. This conversion also reduces the area of natural habitats.

and wildlife.. this volume) alter biodiversity depending on the sensitivity of species to climate change. and disease and parasitism (Marzluff 2001). the abundance of large carnivores tends to decrease near human development. Humans also interact directly with native species through exploitation and inadvertent disturbance. Globally. 2000). . The spatial pattern of habitat also influences biodiversity potential. 1988). Some of the consequences of land use change are much less visible. Canine distemper virus. 1988). reduces biodiversity (Hunter 1999). resulting in increased herbivory and decreased plant diversity. 2002). and ecosystem traits are altered. simplification of the number of canopy layers and other measures of forest structure reduces the microhabitats available to organisms and again. Human activities have allowed many species to overcome geographic boundaries and spread to new locations.. and are suspected to have caused population declines in the endangered gray wolf (Canis lupus) and black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes) (Daszak et al. Habitats with small patch sizes. hence rates of extinction increase with habitat loss (Pimm et al. Human activities often result in changed numbers and distributions of native species. canine parvovirus and sarcoptic mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) are three pathogens known to have spread due to domestic dog-wildlife interactions. The introduction of exotic species is perhaps the most widespread type of biotic change resulting from land use. 2001). and increased distance among patches fail to support habitat interior specialists and species with poor dispersal abilities (Laurance et al. Diseases may be spread among humans. Watersheds transmit these detrimental effects further downstream into the coastal zone where enhanced fertilization may result in harmful algal blooms and fouling of coral reefs by sedimentation. Consequently. 2002). Natural disturbances such as wildfire are also altered by human land use. For example. Land-use changes resulting in sediment loading and nitrogen fertilization constitute one of the chief threats to the health of these ecosystems.. Among the biotic interactions affected are competition. domestic animals. increased edge to area ratios. edge-adapted predators increase in abundance (Soule et al... Human land use and habitat conversion together can have repercussions on other aspects of ecosystem dynamics including ecological processes. Rainfall reductions in Costa Rican Monte Verde cloud forests resulting from land cover conversion in the valleys below have clear repercussions for the species relying on that habitat (Lawton et al. predation. the effects of land cover change on climate (Bonan et al. resulting in mesopredator release in which smaller.280 HANSEN. Freshwater systems are perhaps the most imperiled in the US and globally (Saunders et al.. Within forest stands.. In many parts of the world legal hunting or illegal poaching greatly reduce particular species of wildlife (Campbell and Hofer 1995. biotic interactions among species are changed. As a result. sometimes with devastating effects on local species and ecological processes. Although outside the focus of this chapter.. DEFRIES AND TURNER Smaller habitats can support fewer individuals within a population. as well as the introduction of alien species and pathogens. because they involve not habitats but the organisms within habitats. Herbivores are also released by the elimination of large predators in developed areas. For example. Escamilla et al. species dependent upon early seral habitats may be lost if disturbance is suppressed or species specializing on late successional habitats may be lost if disturbance frequency and severity are increased (Huston 1994). land use is resulting in widespread changes in fire and flooding regimes with strong consequences for biodiversity. the impacts on ecological processes due to land use are not only terrestrial.

and disturbances. domestic pets displace and kill wildlife. overall per capita vehicular travel in the United States increased by 48.. and global scales.7% (Charlier 2002). and American crocodile in various regions of the United States (Trombulak and Frissell. pet dogs have affected the distribution of the endangered key deer.. To a first approximation. Revilla et al.1 LAND COVER FROM REMOTE SENSING The last few decades have witnessed advances in the use of remote sensing to detect distributions of land cover at local. 2001. wolves. food preferences. Remote sensing can also be used to quantify the degree of fragmentation of the habitat. In many countries. Given our increasing appreciation of a fundamental relationship between biodiversity and habitat. followed by emerging possibilities to obtain more direct measures of biodiversity. it can provide us with the area term in the Arrhenius equation. 2001). 2003). remote sensing can tell us whether or not a particular habitat continues to exist. escalating the potential for roadkill. Remote sensing also provides important information on the spatial and temporal distributions of other biophysical predictors of species distributions. Outdoor recreation such as hiking and offroad vehicle use is increasingly popular in an around natural habitats and can act to displace wildlife. and economic opportunities for the local human populations (Brashares et al. 1997). 3. survival. in Florida.LAND USE CHANGE AND BIODIVERSITY 281 2000. snakes. The impetus behind this research was primarily to improve land cover depictions in biosphere-atmosphere models simulating exchanges of energy. water. influencing reproduction. 3 Use of Remote Sensing for Understanding Land Use and Biodiversity Almost a century of development in biogeographic theory has promoted the tight connection between biodiversity and the condition of the surrounding habitat. Thus. These activities. one can estimate the number of species remaining within a habitat in question or. Roadkill has affected the demographics and migrations of birds. the ability of various remote sensing tools to detect habitat condition makes remote sensing an obvious choice for measuring and monitoring aspects of biodiversity (Figure 2). which can lead to “empty forests” and cascading effects on trophic structure. and momentum between the land surface and the atmosphere and in terrestrial ecosystem models simulating carbon . Knowledge of land cover and other biophysical parameters serve as a proxy as indirect measures from which species distributions can be inferred from knowledge of habitat preferences (Turner et al. regional. For example. depend on human population densities as well as cultural characteristics. including primary productivity. Fairbanks and Tullous. climate. likely to remain in that habitat after the effects of the habitat loss have worked their way through the ecosystem. Between 1980 and 2000. Here we describe land cover and other biophysical data from remote sensing. With this information. Finally. there has been an increase in vehicle miles traveled per person and per household. more accurately.. and amphibians. The Arrhenius equation or power model of the 1920s made the basic mathematical linkage between the number of species and area (S=cAz) (Meffe and Carroll. 2000). 2001). and are suspected to have eliminated them from several islands in the Florida Keys. and is a major cause of mortality for moose. invertebrates.. 2002). lynx. and population dynamics (Miller et al.

2000.1.. These analyses have led to identification of “hotspots” where deforestation is occurring.. Sader et al.1.. mostly in tropical forest regions. The products derived in the 1980s and 90s used input data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on board the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) series of meteorological satellites. DEFRIES AND TURNER dynamics. With the exception of the GAC data analyzed in conjunction with higher resolution Landsat data (DeFries et al. 1994).1 Global land cover products Global-scale products generally describe the distributions of broadly-defined biomes. The Brazilian Space Agency (INPE) also uses Landsat data to annually map and report deforestation throughout the Brazilian Amazon (Houghton et al. 1995. The advantage of the coarse resolution data for land cover mapping lies in its global coverage and frequent daily acquisition. 1997). Kalluri et al. . 1998) and 1-km (Hansen et al. Townshend et al. land cover products have been derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at 1-km spatial resolution (Friedl et al.. 2001) throughout the tropical forest belt. applicable for understanding biodiversity over the broad range of landscapes. 1994) in Central America. 2000. at a spatial resolution of 8 km for Global Area Coverage (GAC) and 1 km for Local Area Coverage (LAC). 1994). Recently. 2002) and from SPOT Vegetation data (GLC 2000).282 HANSEN. An important exception was the United States Geological Survey’s Gap Analysis Program. poses challenges to such historical analyses. 3. 2000) spatial resolutions.. so that it is possible to derive composited products that preferentially select pixels with reduced cloud contamination. These products indicate the broad patterns of biodiversity determined by the distributions of major biomes. 1994) and classifications at 8-km (DeFries et al. Limited acquisitions from the Landsat sensor. (2001. Here we describe these land cover products and their potential utility for biodiversity studies.. INPE 2000). The availability of an annual time series of monthly-composited NDVI values made it possible to derive a number of global products including a coarse one-by-one degree resolution land cover map for application in biosphere-atmosphere models (DeFries and Townshend. Several efforts have applied successive time series of Landsat data to depict baseline land cover and changes in land cover from the 1970’s to present at a regional scale.2 Regional to landscape level land cover The regional pattern of land cover is one of the determinants of species diversity across a landscape comprising more than one kind of natural community. Loveland et al. Steininger et al. as do the limitations imposed by the need for visual interpretation rather than automated analysis in hazy and poorly-calibrated scenes (Townshend et al.. 2002). since improved with the launch of the Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper in 1999 (Goward and Williams. rather than for biodiversity studies (Townshend et al. which uses Landsat data to map land cover throughout the United States for regional conservation assessments of native vertebrate species (Scott and Jennings. 1998).. GAC data is available for a time series beginning in 1982 (Agbu and James. 1997). (2001) identified rates of change in Bolivia. and the Landsat Pathfinder Project on Deforestation in the Humid Tropics ( Skole and Tucker. 1993. 3.. the length of the time series has been too short and the spatial resolution too coarse to identify locations with threats to biodiversity from land cover change on a global scale.. while LAC data is only available globally for a few years in the 1990’s.

2002). However. particularly in more arid settings where forage is a limiting factor (Huston 1994). Satellite imagery at these scales allows the direct detection of individual trees and the detection of certain aspects of vegetation structure. . ranges. which emit pulses of electromagnetic radiation and measure the return signal. and land cover. have shown promise detecting vegetation structure at these finer scales (Lefsky et al. which generally require on the order of one scene or a subset of a scene. Such imagery is useful for studies at regional scales. an airborne waveform lidar. Application of the monthly NDVI time series in terrestrial carbon models. two commercial satellites are now providing imagery at resolutions comparable to those of airborne systems. 2002). However. which are relevant to biodiversity. These distributions allow analyses of the movements. soils. Active remote sensing technologies (radars and lidars). The temporal patterns of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as observed with remote sensing sensors clearly reflect these patterns. mapped canopy heights and topography to within 1 m and enabled estimations of vegetation density in the closed canopy tropical forest (Drake et al. Local scale studies typically require remote sensing imagery at very high spatial resolutions.LAND USE CHANGE AND BIODIVERSITY 283 New Landsat and SPOT imagery. 1995). several other related biophysical characteristics also influence species distributions.2. it is also applicable to work at landscape scales. The 30year record of Landsat data (80 m resolution prior to 1984) and its utility at both regional and landscape scales will likely ensure the long-term continuation of 10 m to 30 m resolution satellite remote sensing. and ranges.. provide information on the large-scale spatial and temporal patterns of primary production (Field et al. along with other input data sets related to climate. along with imagery from Japan’s Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) instrument provide visible and near-infrared imagery at spatial resolutions of between 10 m and 30 m. vegetation structure and fine patterns of habitat distributions are important. 3. 3.1 Temporal vegetation dynamics The seasonal distribution of primary production is an important determinant of population size and community richness. which typically require working with anywhere from 10 to 200 scenes. Space Imaging’s IKONOS satellite provides multispectral visible and near-infrared imagery at 4-m spatial resolution and panchromatic imagery at 1-m resolution..2 OTHER BIOPHYSICAL PREDICTORS OF BIODIVERSITY In addition to land cover as an important determinant for biodiversity. Digital Globe’s QuickBird sensor captures imagery at slightly higher spatial resolutions of 2.1. 3.4 m multispectral and 0. population sizes.3 Local-scale remote sensing At a local-scale. and population sizes of migratory species and how they are affected by spatial and temporal distributions of food resources. The Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS).6 m panchromatic.. Traditionally. this has been the domain of aerial photography.

. and economic opportunities for the local human populations (Woodroffe and Ginsberg.. These land uses. they are nevertheless essential to include in analyses about relationships between land use change and biodiversity. food preferences. The TRMM sensor acquires monthly mean hourly rainfall at a 1 degree x 1 degree spatial resolution. such as the fire product (Justice et al. While climate can be interpolated across landscapes where ground-based meterological stations exist (Thornton et al. These edge effects have multiple repercussions for biodiversity through altered species richness and abundances. 2001). Revilla et al. 2002) and burn scars (Roy et al.. Other types of land use. 1997). depend on human population densities as well as cultural characteristics.. (2002) found that edge effects. 2001). DEFRIES AND TURNER 3. forest dynamics. Maps depicting rates of change in land cover and use have stimulated several studies on the effects of both intensification in human dominated landscapes and of the consequences of this land use for the remaining natural habitats.2 Disturbance events Remote sensing to identify disturbance events and recovery from disturbance. Although these factors are more difficult to observe and quantify.3 OTHER HUMAN FACTORS Habitat loss and fragmentation through land cover conversion. 3. 1995. . potentially provides insight into the repercussions for populations and communities. have substantial influences on habitat. 1998. satellites offer hope of recording climate in more remote locations. are more difficult to observe but nevertheless important for biodiversity (Campbell and Hofer. Escamilla et al. species invasions. 2000. In the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project. and to a lesser extent habitat degradation from land use change. 2002) from MODIS data. such as hunting and poaching. which can lead to “empty forests” and cascading effects on trophic structure.. 3.2.284 HANSEN. are possible to examine from ground observations or remote sensing. Brashares et al. and a variety of other ecological and ecosystem processes. the largest experimental study of habitat fragmentation. Habitat fragmentation exposes increased area to disturbance.3 Climate Climate influences organisms directly and indirectly by its effects on primary productivity. such as susceptibility to fire. 4 Synthesis of Land Cover and Land Use Effects on Biodiversity The availability of remotely sensed and other geographic data has greatly aided our understanding of the effects of land use change on organisms and communities.2. Laurance et al. The new Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) sensor on NASA’s Aqua platform is designed to monitor soil moisture at a 1-km resolution.. These studies collectively reveal dramatic population expansions for human-adapted species and losses of species intolerant to human activities. trophic structure of communities.

From Hansen et al. (1998). overall species richness decreases. for example.60 0. The life histories and tolerances of species in the community underlie this relationship. Studies are: insects – Denys and Schmidt (1998). Along a spatial gradient from rural lands to urban cores.Denys and Schmidt (1998). Normalized species richness is calculated as a function of maximum number of recorded species at a point on the development gradient. become more abundant with increasing land use intensity. many species decline due to loss of habitat. bees – McIntyre and Hostetler (2001). Similar patterns were documented for plant communities in Ohio as the percentage of non-native species increased along the rural-urban gradient (Whitney 1985). in review.00 wildland rural/agricultural exurban suburban parks suburban urban Wild-Urban Gradient insects bees birds lizards butterflies plants Figure 3. 1.1 LAND USE INTENSIFICATION As a landscape undergoes the trajectory of land use intensification outlined in Figure 1 the diversity of ecological communities typically drops. In a study around Tucson.LAND USE CHANGE AND BIODIVERSITY 285 4. A synthesis of avian . Distribution of species richness across a gradient in land use for studies of various organisms. While native species often decrease in diversity and abundance along the rural-urban gradient.40 0. lizards – Germaine et al.20 0. Detailed studies along the land use gradient reveal that diversity sometimes peaks at intermediate land use intensities (Figure 3). This follows from the interplay of native and exotic species. birds – Blair (1996).00 Normalized Species Richness 0. A general model of the spatial analog to this temporal trajectory was put forth by McKinney (2002). While human-adapted species such as rock dove.80 0. housing density best explained the increase in species richness for non-native birds (Germaine 1998). human disturbance. and English sparrow. plants . butterflies – Blair (1999). the opposite is often true for non-native guilds. AZ. Dashed lines represent unsampled portions of the gradient. and biotic interactions with human-adapted species.

286 HANSEN. forests and other natural cover types have expanded in places like the upper mid west and New England in the U.. opportunities exist to better support native species while still . Research to date suggests that the types of species sensitive to land use change follows predictable patterns. these species are persecuted by initial settlers within natural habitats and slow to recover. These species have large home ranges. some ungulate species thrive around intermediate levels of human land use. Lions and other top predators in sub-Saharan Africa are also negatively correlated with human density (Woodroffe and Ginsberg. the widely distributed grizzly bear and the wolf have been extirpated in all but the few remaining wilderness areas. and moose have expanded dramatically in recent decades in association with exurban and suburban development (e. neotropical migrant songbirds that use open cup nests are undergoing substantial declines. while over 90% of the studies documented a decrease in interior nesters with increasing settlement (Marzluff 2001). Within each of the land use types depicted in Figure 1. in part due to increased predation and nest parasitism (Terborgh 1988). 1988) and because nonnative predators may expand. DEFRIES AND TURNER research found that over 90% of the surveyed studies documented an increase in exotic species with increasing settlement. Schneider and Wasel. Like mesopredators. Marzluff and Donnelly (in press) found in the forests around Seattle. WA. As wildlands are converted to human land cover types. In many developed countries. and are often dangerous to humans and livestock. 2000). In the transition from exurban and suburban to urban. many human adapted species drop out and overall species richness declines down to a relatively few urban exploiting species.. In North America. The trajectory toward more intense land use is not universal. native species that are sensitive to predation often become reduced. top-level predators are often the first species to decline. Consequently. white tailed deer. 1998). low net reproductive rates. As natural habitats are converted to agricultural and exurban uses. Species that are sensitive to the area of natural habitats may remain abundant in an increasingly human dominated landscape until native habitats are reduced below minimum size thresholds. native birds and mammals have been driven to extinction by exotic predators such as the brown tree snake and feral hogs (Diamond 2000). The recovery of biodiversity in some human landscapes is instructive on the opportunity to achieve more sustainable land use. that native bird species richness remained high as forest area was reduced by development and dropped sharply where remaining forest was below about 15% of the landscape. Several species of ungulates are positively associated with the settlements of traditional Masaii pastoralists lifestyle in the Massai Mara region of Kenya (Reid personal communication). Hence.S (Mustard et al. In North America. this volume). In North America.g. This results both from reduced predation near human settlements and due to the increased primary productivity and forage production induced by domestic livestock and by lawns. Many native species are recovering in these landscapes. elk. This results because native meso-carnivores are released by the loss of top carnivores (Soule et al. On many Polynesian islands.. agricultural lands have been abandoned as industry has replaced agriculture as a primary economic driver (Huston in review). The result is a non-linear response in which community richness and diversity peak at intermediate levels of development. including some of the large predators that were extirpated early in initial EuroAmerican settlement.

species extinctions occur as the area of natural habitat is reduced. These mechanisms also apply to natural habitats that are not formally protected as nature reserves. These remaining natural habitats are extremely important for the conservation of biodiversity. DeFries et al. These may be designated nature reserves such as national parks or lands that have not yet been developed. Land use in surrounding areas may affect ecosystem function and biodiversity within the natural habitats to greater or lesser extents depending on the size of the habitat. sustainable agriculture. Also. As noted above. 1978). 4. (in review) used this method to examine the potential loss of species from 198 protected areas in the world’s tropical forests. however. Seabloom et al. land use intensification reduces the functional size of natural habitats including the reserve itself and intact habitat in the surroundings. Nature reserves and other natural habitats are often parts of larger ecosystems. Research and adaptive management to achieve ecological forestry. and the home range requirements of organisms (Ney-Nifle and Mangel. that these natural areas may be altered by human land uses in the surrounding lands (Figure 4). and nature of human activities. Figure 4. We are increasingly learning. and more nature-friendly cities are well underway..2 REMAINING HABITATS In human-dominated landscapes areas of natural habitat often remain. 2001). Trophic structure is altered as the area of natural habitats falls below the minimum needed for predators with large home ranges (Terborgh et al. Over the last 20 years. Reduction in functional size can simplify trophic structure.. 2000.2. Intensive Land Use Nature Reserve Surrounding Ecosystem 4. Intense land use in the matrix surrounding the reserve may alter the properties of the surrounding ecosystem and influence the nature reserve under the mechanisms outlined in Table 1. and increase species extinction rates. scaling of the surrounding ecosystem. 2002). The species area relationship has been used to predict the consequences of reducing the size of a habitat through conversion to intensive land uses (see Cowlishaw 1999 for a review). The general mechanisms by which land use in the matrix may affect biodiversity within nature reserves were elucidated by Hansen and Rotella (2001) and Hansen and DeFries (in prep) (Table 1).LAND USE CHANGE AND BIODIVERSITY 287 meeting human needs (McKinney 2002). 69% of .1 Habitat area First. degrade the reserve’s ability to recover from natural disturbances. as natural habitat area decreases. The species area relationship may be modified by several sitespecific factors such as nonrandom associations between habitat destruction and spatial patterns of species richness. the reserves may become too small for disturbance to maintain a dynamic steady state mosaic of seral stages (Pickett and Thompson. spatial aggregation of habitat fragmentation.

ground water extraction. Humans are altering hydrologic flows directly by dams. Lands outside of reserves may contain unique habitats that are required by organisms within reserves Organisms require corridors to disperse among reserves or to migrate from reserves to ephemeral habitats. DEFRIES AND TURNER reserves in moist tropical forests experienced a decline in forest habitat within 50 km of their periphery. Negative human influences from the reserve periphery extend some distance into nature reserves. For those protected areas with changes in their effective areas (70%). 2001) Fire in Yellowstone National Park (Hansen and Rotella. irrigation (Mustard this volume) and . the functional size of the reserve is decreased and risk of extinction in the reserve is increased. in prep. (Serneels and Lambin 2001) Elephant in East Africa (Cougenour et al.. From Hansen and DeFries. 1999b) Loss of predators on Barro Coronado Island (Terborgh et al.288 HANSEN. declining to 90% in 2001 with further decline to 51% in the hypothetical case of complete isolation. Land use in upper watersheds or airsheds may alter flows into reserves lower in the water. Table 1. For example. capacity to conserve species richness averaged 93% relative to fully intact habitat in 1982. Characteristic spatial scales of organisms differ with trophic level such that organisms in higher levels are lost as ecosystems shrink. “Initiation” and “run-out” zones for disturbance may lie outside reserves. 2001) Wildebeest in Serengeti National Park.or watershed Ephemeral habitats Dispersal/ Migration habitats Popula-tion source sink habitats Edge effects Loss of crucial habitat outside of reserve Increased exposure to humans at park edge 4. (Lawton et al. Key ecological processes move across landscapes.2 Ecological flows Land use change outside reserves can also alter flows of water and nutrients. biological reserves throughout the world are threatened by cumulative alterations in hydrologic connectivity within the greater landscape (Pringle 2000). 2000) Birds around Yellowstone National Park (Hansen and Rotella 2002) Eurasian badgers in Donana Park (Revilla et al.) Trophic Structure Changes in ecological flows into and out of reserve Iinitiation and runout zones Location in air.. Unique habitats outside of reserves are “population” source areas required to maintain “sink” populations in reserves... General mechanisms by which land use surrounding nature reserves may alter ecological processes and biodiversity within reserves. 2001. Mechanism Change in effective size of reserve Type Minimum Dynamic Area Species Area Effect Description Temporal stability of seral stages is a function of the area of the reserve relative to the size of natural disturbance..2.or air-shed. water diversions. 2001) Rainfall in Monte Verde Cloud Forest. in review). As natural habitats in surrounding lands are destroyed. of which 37% respectively declined more than 5% (DeFries et al.. climate. and disturbance agents into reserves. Examples Hurricanes in Puerto Rico (Shugart 1984) Fragmented forests in Kenya (Brooks et al.

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ecological processes such as disturbance rates and microclimate changes, human settlement and recreation, and introduction of exotic organisms and diseases. Many of these edge effects are proportional to the density of the adjacent human population (Woodroffe and Ginsberg, 1998; Brashares et al., 2001). Hence, these effects may be increased under human population growth around reserves. In sum, myriad studies indicate that land use change is the primary driver of change in biodiversity across many portions of the globe. Natural habitats have been converted to more intense human land uses, with dramatic effects on native species and communities. Even the remaining natural habitats are not immune from the effects of land use change. Human activities in the matrix around natural habitats can alter ecological processes and organisms within the reserves. These findings suggest that the future ability of protected areas to maintain current species richness depends on integrating reserve management with regional land-use activities. 4.3 OVERLAP OF LAND USE AND BIODIVERSITY The locations of intense human land use and areas rich in biodiversity are not random relative to one another. Rather, land use and hot spots for biodiversity often overlap. This is because both are influenced by biophysical factors such as climate and ecosystem productivity. A consequence of this overlap is that land use has a particularly strong influence on biodiversity. The spatial distribution of biodiversity is influenced by many factors (Huston 1994). However, a dominant factor is available energy, represented both climate and as plant productivity (Huston 1994; Rosenzwieg 1994). Across North America, potential evapotranspiration explained more than 90% of the variation in vertebrate species richness (Currie 1991). And in sub-Saharan Africa, net primary productivity (NPP) accounted for 73% of the variation in vertebrate species richness (Balmford et al., 2001). In relatively unproductive ecosystems, species richness is generally positively related to ecosystem energy because larger population sizes can be supported, reducing the risk of extinction due to small population sizes (Pimm et al., 1988). In highly productive ecosystems, a few species may dominate the available resources and out compete other species, causing species richness to change negatively related to energy level. Hence, globally, species richness often peaks in locations that are intermediate in energy levels (Waide 1999). The biophysical factors that influence ecosystem energy also influence human land use. Globally, human population density and intense human land use are greatest in locations that are either intermediate (Balmford et al., 2001) or high (Huston 1993) in ecosystem productivity. One reason for this pattern is that human populations are most dense on lands suitable for agriculture or in the low elevation and coastal areas that facilitate transportation (Huston, in review). Importantly, nature reserves, areas designated primarily to protect nature are biased in location to the less productive landscape settings that are lower in biodiversity (Scott et al., 2001). The overlap between intense human land use and biodiversity is documented at a hierarchy of spatial scales. Globally, human density and population growth rate are disproportionately high near the world’s 25 richest biodiversity hot spots (Cincotta et al., 2000). Across the African continent, human density and vertebrate richness are significantly correlated (Balmford et al., 2001). Within the state of California, native plants and human density are both disproportionately high in coastal areas. Within the

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Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, native birds and rural home development are concentrated in the same small percentage of the landscape with mesic climate, good soils, and high NPP (Figure 6) (Hansen et al., 2002). The important conclusion is that at many spatial scales, humans and biodiversity tend to be concentrated in the same locations. Consequently, the human conversion of natural habitats and the effects on native species described are occurring most rapidly in the locations most important to biodiversity. This is resulting in elevated levels of species extinction in these locations (Kerr and Currie, 1995; Rivard et al., 2000; Brashares et al., 2001; Parks and Harcourt, 2002).

5 Conservation and Management Effective management for biodiversity in the face of land use change is a tremendous challenge in that it requires expertise ranging across the physical sciences, life sciences, and social sciences. It also requires management across spatial scales from global to local. Managing biodiversity at the global scale would appear to be well beyond our grasp due to fundamental gaps in our knowledge, such as the number of species on the planet, and a lack of the necessary technical tools and political/administrative frameworks in which managers could hope to accomplish such a lofty goal. And yet, there are a surprising number of groups engaged in assembling the mix of knowledge, tools, and political structures necessary to achieve this goal. First, managers have identified the major threats to biodiversity operating across spatial scales. As noted already, there is widespread consensus that habitat degradation and loss, resulting from changes in land use, constitute a primary cause – if not the primary cause – of biodiversity loss. Second, managers have developed a body of theory connecting island biogeography with landscape ecology’s emphases on the importance of habitat connectivity, edge effects, and the quality of the landscape matrix surrounding a crucial habitat; and the resulting approach is showing some predictive power. We have learned of the basic mechanisms by which increasingly intense land use alters ecological communities and processes. We have also learned how these effects can reach across the landscape and alter biodiversity even in protected areas. Using data on the populations of endangered and threatened species from World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red Lists and historical sources in conjunction with information on the extent of habitat loss from remote sensing satellites and in situ measures, the theory of island biogeography has given managers the ability to predict likely species losses resulting from a given amount of habitat loss at regional and global scales (Wilcox 1980; Newmark 1995; Brooks et al., 1997; Brooks et al. 1999a; Brooks et al., 1999b; Brooks et al., 2002). Improved understanding of habitat connectivity, edge effects, matrix quality, and flows of energy and nutrients should enable us to refine these admittedly rough regional and global estimates to produce better projections for species losses at global, landscape and local scales. Third, managers know, at a regional level, where to focus their efforts to conserve and then manage biodiversity. Not all areas are of equal importance. We have learned that some locations represent crucial habitat, migration corridors, and population source areas for populations occupying the broader landscape. We increasingly appreciate that ecological processes operate in space such that there are key initiation zones and run-out zones. We have found that species are not evenly

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distributed across landscapes and regions, but are often concentrated in hot spots. Moreover, these hotspots for biodiversity also may overlap with locations of intense human land use. Driven by the need to find the best use for limited conservation resources, biogeographers and field ecologists have expended much effort over the past 5 to 10 years developing approaches to prioritizing the regions of the globe most important for biodiversity based on estimates of species richness, rarity and, in some cases, levels of endemism and/or threat. Examples include biodiversity hotspots, the global 200 ecoregions, endemic bird areas, and frontier forests (Bryant et al., 1997; Olson and Dinerstein, 1998; Stattersfield et al., 1998; and Myers et al., 2000). Thanks to these efforts we now have regional scale knowledge of areas that are critically important for maintaining the future of biodiversity. Fourth, managers are just beginning to get access to tools that should allow them to monitor and assess over time the condition of these important regions. At global and regional scales, satellite remote sensing is perhaps the most useful tool for this purpose. Global, routine monitoring via satellite of disturbance events driving landuse change is still in its infancy but progress is being made. The MODIS sensors on the TERRA and AQUA satellites are providing fire products at 1-km spatial resolution on time scales ranging from daily to monthly (Justice et al., 2002). Other MODIS data products still under development include a quarterly 1-km land-cover change product and a monthly 250-m vegetative cover conversion product (Zhan et al., 2000). These routine products will provide a coarse-resolution early warning system for changes in land cover, which can then be viewed with higher spatial resolution satellite imagery or in situ devices. Newly assembled global Landsat data sets from the mid-1970s, circa 1990, and 2000 time periods will provide baseline moderate to high spatial resolution imagery (80 m for the 1970s, 30 m for circa 1990, and 30 m multispectral/15 m panchromatic imagery for 2000) from three decades to look at landscape scale change over time. Despite this focus on satellite remote sensing, in situ sampling strategies are critical. Without in situ data, there is no reliable means of validating the satellite imagery. More importantly though, ground surveys will always be necessary to measure and monitor many elements of biodiversity. Remote sensing and the ecological models capable of ingesting it are only tools that allow a synoptic view of certain environmental parameters relevant to biodiversity, e.g., land cover. This combination of theory, knowledge of regions important to biodiversity, and tools to monitor these regions over time provides the basis for a global system to manage biodiversity. What is lacking are the political and administrative structures to address biodiversity conservation and land-use change at broad scales. Here too, recent developments are encouraging. Island biogeography theory and landscape ecology have driven managers to think big. For example, protected area managers must now look beyond the boundaries of their park at the surrounding matrix if they are to maintain the viability of the protected area and its biodiversity over time. As a result, national governments are beginning to explore mechanisms to manage ecological regions across national boundaries. Examples of transboundary conservation initiatives at various levels of integration include the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem, and the proposed Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative. The Central American heads of state instituted the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC) in 1997 to serve as a basis for joint planning among the seven nations of Central

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America and 5 southern Mexican states. It addresses a regional commitment to sustainable development. The MBC grew out of an earlier plan to link a series of protected areas spread throughout the isthmus in a corridor known as Paseo Pantera or “path of the panther” (Miller et al., 2001). A desire to provide suitable habitat to sustain viable populations of keystone species, such as large predators, or critical ecological processes, e.g., migration corridors for large ungulates, have often provided the initial incentive for transboundary initiatives. The Greater Serengeti Ecosystem consists of a series of protected areas on both sides of the Kenya/Tanzania border that maintain one of the world’s greatest migrations of large mammals (Miller 1996). The Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative is still in the development phase. It would link protected areas and surrounding lands in the Northern Rocky Mountains to protect biological diversity and the wilderness character of the region. It also drew inspiration from a large predator, in this case a female gray wolf that was tracked moving across 840 km over 18 months (Chester 2003). The growing number of conservation initiatives crossing political boundaries provides a variety of political and administrative frameworks for the implementation of regional land-use planning in support of biodiversity. In this case, theory, tools, and practice appear to be coming together at the right time for integrated management. Of course, most decisions regarding land use, and the accompanying impacts on biodiversity, will continue to be local in scale. It is perhaps at the local level where people can most easily grasp the influence of land use on biodiversity and see the benefits of conservation. Sustainable forestry protocols are increasingly guiding management practices within forest stands. Encouraged by market forces, many forest products companies globally are developing and implementing practices to maintain biodiversity values within the stands and landscapes that are used for wood and fiber production. Private citizens and nongovernmental organizations are increasingly purchasing development rights on crucial habitats that are not currently protected. Such conservation easements allow traditional livestock grazing or agriculture that are consistent with maintenance of biodiversity while prohibiting more intense land uses such as subdivision. Individual citizens are increasingly aware of the ecological consequences of their actions and are modifying their lifestyles to reduce their ecological impacts. In the American west, for example, rural homeowners are learning how to live more lightly on the land through managing hobby livestock, weeds, and reducing supplemental foods to native wildlife. Increasingly, local communities are integrating consideration of biodiversity into land use planning, allowing more integrated landscape management across private and public lands. These local initiatives are partially motivated by the growing realization that good conservation has strong economic and social benefits (Rasker and Hansen, 2000). Perhaps our increasing appreciation of the interdependence between healthy ecosystems and healthy human communities will lead toward more sustainable approaches for land use.

6 Conclusions Remotely-sensed data derived from satellites is providing a basis for understanding rates of land use change and consequences for biodiversity. We are now coming to

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understand the global extent of the conversion of natural habitats to human-dominated landscapes. Recent decades have seen dramatic decreases in the remaining natural habitats and increases in the intensification of human land use throughout the tropical and temperate zones of the world. Within our managed landscapes, native species are giving way to exotic species and ecological communities are becoming increasingly homogenized. These effects of intense land use reach even into nature reserves and other habitats that appear to be healthy at a distance, but are undergoing important ecological degradation. Globally, many native species have gone extinct and past land use change has produced an “extinction debt” that will continue to be felt in future decades and centuries. Increasingly, we are realizing the value of biodiversity to human societies and economic systems. Hence, a myriad of efforts are underway from local to global levels to manage land use to better achieve human and natural resource objectives. Our challenge is to integrate remote sensing, scientific research, landscape management, and personal lifestyles to better sustain ecological and human communities.

Acknowledgements. We thank John Mustard, Heather Rustigan, and Scott Powell for helpful comments on the manuscript. Heather Rustigan prepared figures 5 and 6. Support was provided by the NASA LCLUC Program.

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which determines the absorption of solar radiation at the surface. canopy physiology. and soil texture. © 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. and biogeochemical cycles. and other atmospheric gases. storage of heat in soil. and soil water. MD 20742 USA 3 Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment. 301–314. changes in land cover through natural vegetation dynamics or human uses of land can alter climate. COE3. Printed in the Netherlands. CO2. and the frictional drag of the surface on wind influence climate. which cools and moistens the atmosphere. DEFRIES2. which affects the partitioning of net radiation into sensible and latent heat. As a result. RUTH S. Box 3000. CO 80307 USA Department of Geography. Some of this energy is dissipated as sensible heat. (eds. latent heat. BONAN1. or transmitted by foliage and woody material in the plant canopy. surface roughness. and soil water (Sellers et al.CHAPTER 17 LAND USE AND CLIMATE GORDON B. College Park. water. MICHAEL T. These models evolved into a second generation of models such as the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS. soil water. Colorado State University Fort Collins. In these models. University of Wisconsin-Madison. momentum. Madison. University of Maryland.O. Simulation of the surface energy balance is a fundamental component of land models (Figure 1). B229. 1710 University Ave. Changes in community composition and ecosystem structure alter these exchanges and in doing so alter surface energy fluxes. Solar radiation is absorbed. which warms the overlying atmospheric column. The first generation of land models coupled to atmospheric models parameterized these processes using simple aerodynamic bulk transfer equations and simple prescriptions of albedo. P. Sellers et al. 1997). CO 80523 USA 2 1 1 Introduction Terrestrial ecosystems affect climate through exchanges of energy. the hydrologic cycle. Boulder. Longwave radiation is gained from the atmosphere and also emitted by surface elements. NESB. and momentum. Gaylord Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies. Land Change Science. which affects turbulence and the turbulent fluxes of sensible heat. .. Gutman et al. reflected. These fluxes are inversely proportional to an aerodynamic resistance that parameterizes turbulent processes and vegetation re301 G. Dickinson et al. mineral aerosols. the exchanges of sensible and latent heat between land and atmosphere. which affects infiltration. OJIMA4 National Center for Atmospheric Research. DENNIS S. or as latent heat. which alters the hydrologic cycle and also affects albedo. 1986) that include the full hydrologic cycle and vegetation effects on energy and water fluxes. WI 53726 USA 4 Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory. surface roughness. The absorbed solar radiation and net longwave radiation comprise the net radiation available at the surface. surface roughness. Much of our knowledge of the influence of vegetation on global and regional climate comes from climate models. runoff.. vegetation. Important surface properties that determine these exchanges include: albedo.. and the leaf area from which heat and moisture are exchanged with the atmosphere. the absorption of radiation at the surface.). 1993) or Simple Biosphere Model (SiB.

1997). DEFRIES. COE. Land models typically represent vegetation structure in terms of height. and branches and readily evaporates. The physiology of vegetation is represented by vegetation types that vary in leaf optical properties and stomatal physiology. twigs. and root profile in soil. transpiration. The remainder is either stored in small depressions or runs off over the surface. 2000).. Precipitation over land is stored in soil. AND OJIMA sistances that regulate energy and water transfer between leaves and surrounding air. changes in water storage are small so that runoff is the difference between precipitation input and evapotranspiration loss. Land management practices such as grazing.. Surface energy fluxes (left) and hydrology (right) as represented in land models. Changes in land management have contributed to decreased CH4 oxidation. A third generation of models relates photosynthesis. 1998. or runs off to the oceans. increased CO2 emission.302 BONAN. or in soil influences surface energy fluxes. Water stored in the canopy. returned to the atmosphere during evapotranspiration. on the ground as snow.. Some precipitation is intercepted by leaves. Use of nitrogen fertilizers and increased atmospheric loading of nitrogen have contributed to increased CH4 and N2O in the atmosphere (Mosier et . A fourth generation of models currently under development allows vegetation to change as climate changes (Foley et al. and stomatal conductance to provide a consistent parameterization of energy. The water cycle involves much more detail than this simple water balance. The water that is not intercepted falls to the ground. leaf area index and its phenology. water. Vegetation is an important determinant of energy fluxes and the hydrologic cycle. and N2O production from soils. annually). Some of the water reaching the ground infiltrates into the soil. Soil water is returned to the atmosphere through evaporation from soil and transpiration from plants. CO2 emissions resulting from land use change since the 1980’s are approximately 40% of fossil fuel contributions. and conversion to arable lands affect trace gas fluxes. Figure 1. Over long times scales (e. and therefore land models also simulate the hydrologic cycle (Figure 1). Energy not dissipated as sensible or latent heat is used to melt snow or stored in soil. forestry. and carbon exchanges (Sellers et al.g.

Govindasamy et al. This leads to an increase in the ocean upwelling. 1998.. cloudiness.. Delire et al. The impact of past land cover change on climate is noticeable at the global scale (Hansen et al. 1997). Gash and Nobre. Presently. Pielke et al. In the remainder of this chapter.. Observational evidence for the large-scale feedback between land cover change and precipitation is limited. changes in land cover can alter climate. Another important difference is that pastures have a lower aerodynamic roughness than forests. moister climate because of sustained transpiration during the dry season (Kleidon and Heimann. increased use of nitrogen has altered community composition and ecosystem functions (Vitousek et al. The largest difference occurs during the dry season.b. Nobre et al.LAND USE AND CLIMATE 303 al. In addition. 2002a). forests have no significant reduction in evapotranspiration as the deep-rooted trees extract water from deep soil. Henderson-Sellers et al. 1993.. temperate forests and grasslands. creating a cooler.. In mon- . especially in Amazonia (Dickinson and Henderson-Sellers. 1999. subtropics. By changing net radiation at the surface. Zhang et al. During the dry season. evapotranspiration from pastures is typically less than from forests due to the reduced available energy and reduced roughness. 1988. and drylands. 2 Tropical Deforestation Studies of the micrometeorology of forested and pasture sites in Amazonia show some of the climatic effects of tropical deforestation (Gash et al.000 km2 is associated with a simulated decrease in the total atmospheric column heating (through an increase in surface albedo and decrease in net radiation) and a subsequent decrease in the atmospheric vertical motion. Zhao et al. 2000). The deep roots of trees may be a key control of climate. 2001. The net result of these differences is that pastures are warmer during the day than forests. Land cover changes over the next 50 years due to human land uses are also likely to alter climate... shallow-rooted pastures tend to have low evapotranspiration as the surface soil water is depleted.. Most studies find that complete transformation of forest to pasture results in a warmer surface with decreased evapotranspiration and precipitation. net radiation for pastures is less than for forests. Bounoua et al. These studies show that large-scale tropical deforestation over regions greater than 100. Consequently. 2000. a large portion of the natural vegetation of the world has been cleared to grow crops. 1998. Pastures have a higher albedo than forests. Windspeeds over the adjacent ocean are increased due to decreased surface roughness over the deforested land. 1991. 2001. the partitioning of this energy into sensible and latent heat. especially in the tropics. 1997). and the partitioning of precipitation into runoff and evapotranspiration. (2001) showed that in Indonesia ocean dynamics produces further feedback. 1996a.. 2002). are warmer. and semiarid land (DeFries et al. and emit more longwave radiation. In contrast. 2002). 1993).. we review the climatic impacts of land cover change in tropical forests. Bounoua et al. and a further decrease in the regional atmospheric convection and precipitation. and rainfall over the deforested region. when evapotranspiration is reduced in pastures. (1998) analyzed GOES satellite data and found that with tropical deforestation at scales of thousands of kilometers or more alterations in the cloud patterns (and presumably precipitation) are observed.. 1996.. During the rainy season. Climate model studies have examined the impact of topical deforestation on climate.. a decrease in the total atmospheric column temperature. boreal forests. Costa and Foley. Ojima et al. Brovkin et al.

3 Temperate Land Use Much of the natural vegetation of Europe has been cleared for cropland. simulations by Reale and Shukla (2000) show that decreased surface albedo with natural vegetation increases precipitation by strengthening the land-sea temperature contrast and altering atmospheric circulation over northern Africa and the Mediterranean Sea. AND OJIMA tane environments. and boreal regions show that water yield and discharge generally increase with increasing deforestation and decrease with reforestation (Bruijnzeel. Their analysis shows that a rapid increase in land used for agriculture (from 30% of the basin in 1960 to 50% in 1995) is coincident with a 25% increase in the discharge of the Tocantins River despite no significant change in precipitation. . The Mediterranean region of southern Europe and northern Africa has received particular attention because of extensive deforestation during the past 2000 years..000 km2). for particular settings such as mountainous islands or isolated mountains on land. For example. Sahin and Hall. with increasing scale of deforestation the impact of decreased evapotranspiration and increased surface albedo may eventually lead to a reversal of the direct impact and reduction in precipitation and runoff. DEFRIES. Greatest water yield increase occurs after more than 20% of the basin is deforested. the spatial scale for feedbacks to occur is large (100. aerosols.000 km2. However. and momentum budgets are insufficient to cause noticeable feedbacks to regional circulation.304 BONAN. Heck et al. fairly homogenous vegetation such as tropical rainforests. Land clearing in many of these tropical regions is associated with biomass burning. 2001). but not enough to impact regional precipitation. In addition to affecting precipitation. Changes to the regional water budget due to feedbacks between land cover change and the atmosphere dominate only at large spatial scales (100. However. (in review) used a 50 year record of river discharge and precipitation in conjunction with land use census data to assess the impact of rapid land cover changes on the discharge of the 176. 1990. Observational evidence suggests that direct impacts of land cover change on hydrology are important at spatial scales ranging from to 10 to 100. COE. Studies of small watersheds in tropical. Confirmation of this process in basins larger than 100 km2 is rarely possible because of the logistics of monitoring very large watersheds. temperate. Costa et al. However. These emissions contribute to the recent changes in greenhouse gas fluxes from agricultural lands. For regions of large.000 km2 Tocantins River basin of northern Brazil. The land cover change appears to have reduced evapotranspiration and increased runoff and discharge. At small spatial scales changes in the surface energy. Climate model simulations suggest that this deforestation contributed to the dryness of the current climate (Reale and Shukla. 2001). 1996). Biomass burning releases large amounts of CO2.000 km2). This results in a northward shift in the intertropical convergence zone and a local circulation between the Mediterranean Sea and northwestern Africa in the region of the Atlas Mountains. Evapotranspiration decreases as does total atmospheric heating. moisture... feedbacks between deforestation and cloud formation have been observed to occur at smaller spatial scales (Lawton et al. 2001). deforestation alters runoff. 2000. and reactive nitrogen species to the atmosphere. deforestation on small scales (100 km2) can lead to significant local reduction in precipitation and runoff (Lawton et al.

The climatic effect of converting natural grasslands in the Great Plains to croplands has been studied with regional climate models (Eastman et al... 1994. Thereafter.S. The cooling largely arises from increased surface albedo that decreases the net radiation at the surface and increases in latent heat flux during the growing season. and the partitioning of energy into latent and sensible heat. Foley et al.S. Bounoua et al. 1996). and higher daytime temperatures. there was a widely held belief that land clearing. Douville and Royer. lying just south of the treeless tundra.. for agricultural has cooled climate. and much of the grasslands in the Great Plains of central U. roughness. Seasonally varying differences in surface albedo and sensible and latent heat between grasslands and croplands control this warming. soil water limits evapotranspiration and the climate sensitivity to natural vegetation is reversed. (Bonan. 1992. The greater leaf area and deeper rooting depth of natural vegetation leads to a moister and cooler spring followed by a warmer and drier summer compared to present vegetation. cultivation.. Hansen et al. Evapotranspiration increases from April until mid-July. This study shows that introduction of croplands has warmed daily maximum temperature by a few degrees over the growing season throughout most of the Central Plains. These studies demonstrate that clearing of forests in eastern U. the geographic extent of these ecosystems is an important regulator of global climate. The cooling is larger for daily maximum temperature than for daily minimum temperature so that diurnal temperature range decreases. Replacement of forests by cropland and grassland has greatly reduced leaf area index and rooting depth compared to natural vegetation. Early in the growing season. 2002). Later in the growing season. moistening the boundary layer. 2001).S. but increase again with harvesting. Chalita and Le Treut. The forests of eastern U. 2001). 1994. 4 Boreal Forest-tundra Ecotone The boreal forest is the northernmost forest. Differences in sensible and latent heat fluxes have an important role in the warming. Settlement of the U. Numerous climate model studies have found that the presence of the boreal forest warms climate compared to tundra (Bonan et al. leading to less transpiration.S. Thomas and Rowntree. One important difference between forest and tundra is surface albedo when the ground is covered by snow. have been replaced with crops. 1997. 2002). Trees protrude over . the leaf area index of croplands is less than that of grasslands. 1992. The climate of southern Europe is especially sensitivity to changes in leaf area index and rooting depth (Heck et al. 1998.LAND USE AND CLIMATE 305 Results are less pronounced and more variable in southern Europe. the albedo of bare cropland soil is lower than that of grassland. Climate model simulations have begun to document the impact of land use on the climate of the U. 2002). Because of differences between boreal forest and tundra ecosystems in albedo. 1999. more sensible heat. cooling the surface. and tree planting would increase rainfall in the semi-arid climate of the Great Plains (Bonan. In particular. Possible climate effects of this deforestation were a concern early in the settlement of North America (Bonan. Differences in albedo decrease as the crops grow. and enhancing precipitation.. Central Plains in the 1870s and 1880s shifted scientific and popular interest in the effects of land use on the climate from deforestation to cultivation and tree planting.S.. The warming from croplands is weak early in the growing season because of high evaporation from bare fields saturated with soil water.

de Noblet et al. beginning with the studies of Charney (1975) and Charney et al. The low evaporative fraction of needleleaf evergreen forests arises in part from low stomatal conductance due to low foliage nitrogen content and low photosynthetic capacity (Baldocchi et al. which promotes subsidence of air aloft. The decrease in surface albedo caused by the northward expansion of the boreal forest in response to the climate warming accentuated the warming (Foley et al. 2002).. This creates a warm. 2000). Forest and tundra ecosystems also differ in how they partition net radiation into sensible and latent heat fluxes (Eugster et al. In addition. COE. dry surface climate and a deep planetary boundary layer during the course of a typical summer day. Lynch et al. leading to less rainfall. Eugster et al..306 BONAN. Persistent drought has affected the Sahel since 1969. observational studies suggest that at relatively small scales the conversion from natural vegetation to a managed system with reduced rooting depth and leaf area index results in decreased evapotranspiration and greater water yield (Sahin and Hall. show that conversion of natural vegetation to managed systems causes a feedback with the atmosphere that reduces precipitation.. tundra sites generally have higher latent heat flux and lower sensible heat flux compared to nearby needleleaf evergreen forests. Throughout summer. As a result.. and energy exchange.. Many climate model studies. 2000. Almost every year since 1969 has been dryer than the average for the period 1931-1960 and the mean precipitation is about 25-40% less than the earlier period (Nicholson. 2000. 1996). Subsidence decreases cloud formation and convection. 1995. As climate warmed and the glaciers retreated northwards. 1999). and increased fuelwood collection can alter the surface energy balance and hydrologic cycle and thereby change climate. 5 Dry Lands In arid and semi-arid climates. for the persistent drought. (1977). 13˚N to 20˚N latitude) has been a region of intense investigation of land surface-atmosphere feedbacks. Subsequent studies have generally concluded that very large changes in land cover in the Sahel could cause a significant drought in the region (Xue . 2000). The Sahel region of northern Africa (15˚W to 20˚E longitude. 2000). 1996.. 1996). AND OJIMA snow and mask its high albedo. Expansion of tundra at the expense of forest may have played a role in the onset of glaciation (Gallimore and Kutzbach. 2000). The forest-tundra ecotone may control the summer position of the Arctic front in North America due to the contrast in albedo. Decreased net radiation at the surface cools the atmosphere. Paleoclimate studies suggest that the forest-tundra ecotone has a large role in regulating climate. at least in part. the treeline migrated northwards. 1994). expansion of agriculture. which results in strong heating of the atmosphere over forest and weak heating over tundra (Pielke and Vidale. Eugster et al.. which decreases stomatal conductance by increasing the vapor pressure deficit and forcing stomata to close (Baldocchi et al. Climate model simulations also show that reduction in forest cover at middle to high latitudes at the last glacial maximum reinforced the cold climate (Levis et al.. The deep boundary layer may feed back to limit evapotranspiration by entraining a large amount of dry air. 2000).. DEFRIES. roughness. treeless areas have a higher albedo when snow is on the ground than do forests (Baldocchi et al. overgrazing of rangelands by livestock. Charney (1975) suggested that higher albedo from overgrazing was responsible..

Irrigation is needed to augment sparse rainfall. carbon compounds (e. Avissar and Pielke. and drier soils that further reduce evapotranspiration.. soil erosion. the surface energy and water balance. the cause of the climate shift to dry conditions in the Sahel is believed to be more complex (Foley et al.b) indicate that the Sahel may have two stable states: a wet phase and a dry phase. and increased surface albedo... irrigation has reduced the discharge of many rivers. Changes in land cover alter the hydrology of drylands. 1999). 1998).. CO2. 1994). 1993). 1998. Land use practices in semiarid and arid regions can create large dust storms.g. 1993. In this theory. Wang and Eltahir (2000a. Chen and Avissar. dry native vegetation. Therefore. Balling et al.LAND USE AND CLIMATE 307 and Shukla. Overgrazing and fuel wood collection have increased surface albedo in the Negev desert (Otterman. Clark et al. creating circulations akin to sea breezes between the cool. However. more runoff. Studies in the Sonoran and Negev deserts show the effects of overgrazing on local-to-regional climate. the feedbacks then maintain the system in that regime for decades until some other triggering event forces climate into the other regime (Foley et al. drained many inland water bodies. overgrazing increases surface albedo. soil fertility. and trace gas exchange. Such storms transport dust and other aerosols from Asia across the Pacific to North America and from the Sahel to the Americas. soil moisture prevails over albedo. Lack of rainfall to grow crops is also a problem in drylands. 1989). The lower evapotranspiration of overgrazed land warms the surface despite higher albedo. CO. Slowly changing land cover or sea surface temperatures may act as the trigger for a rapid climate transition. Irrigation is likely creating a cooler. and salinated soil with runoff. Xue. in press). The high evapotranspiration from irrigated soils moistens and cools the atmosphere near the surface. exposed soil. These studies show the climatic effect of overgrazing drylands depends on soil moisture (Bonan. Overgrazing in the Sonoran desert in Mexico has reduced vegetation cover. In addition. Chase et al. resulting in a feedback to the climate.. lower vegetation cover reduces evapotranspiration and warms the surface (Bryant et al.. wet agricultural land and hot. 2002). Because of higher albedo. Although the higher albedo of the overgrazed land should cool the surface. 2001). Once the climate shift has occurred. albedo is more important than soil moisture and overgrazing leads to cooling. dust emission. Land use change in arid and semiarid regions alters the biogeochemical fluxes of soot. 1984. 1997. Strong feedbacks between vegetation. These aerosols affect climate by changing the radiation balance of the atmosphere and by affecting cloud . 1989. Land use affects soil carbon storage. The large contrast in sensible and latent heat between irrigated croplands and surrounding dry vegetation can generate mesoscale circulations (Anthes. in press).. overgrazed soils are cooler than vegetated areas. and the West African monsoon appear to be responsible for the existence of these alternative steady states. 1990. In less arid regions such as the Sonoran. moister climate in northeastern Colorado (Stohlgren et al. nitrogen. and aerosols.. Tree clearing in the Murray-Darling basin of Australia is thought to have decreased evapotranspiration and raised the water table (Pierce et al. In both regions.. the land cover changes required to simulate a climate change as large as observed are much greater than those that are observed. In addition. volatile organic compounds). the drought of the last 30 years could have been triggered by an initial degradation of as little as 20% of the natural vegetation of the Sahel or by a temporary (2 year) warming of Atlantic sea surface temperatures. In the dry soils of the Negev. depleted groundwater reservoirs. sparse vegetation and compacted soils result in less infiltration.

Matthews. Most models represent croplands as a single plant type with prescribed leaf area derived from satellite data. 2000.g. Urban land cover is excluded in global climate models. 1983. (2000) also found that a dieback of tropical rainforests with a warmer.. 1998. de Noblet-Ducoudré et al. first at a coarse resolution of 1 x 1 degree (DeFries and . atlases.308 BONAN.. Doherty et al. runoff. Tropical deforestation warms climate due to reduced evapotranspiration and releases carbon to the atmosphere resulting in warming that exceeds that from biogeophysical processes.. Studies with such coupled climate-vegetation models show that vegetation amplifies the climate response to changes in solar radiation or atmospheric CO2 (de Noblet et al. and other sources (e. In the mid-1990s. The biogeochemical effects of land cover change may offset or accentuate the biogeophysical effects. improves simulated climate (Tsvetsinskaya et al. BATS represents the land surface with 16 cover types. Land models are being developed to better represent land use. Land models are being developed to include the carbon cycle. global land cover classifications based on remote sensing data became available. 6. albedo.. Claussen et al. Olson et al. DEFRIES. 1983). Parameters such as leaf area index. COE. inclusion of interactive crops.. For example.. northward expansion of boreal forest into tundra decreases surface albedo and stores carbon. Deposition of iron-laden dust particles acts as a micronutrient source that promotes marine primary production and thereby alters the global carbon cycle. 2000). (2001) contrasted the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of boreal and tropical deforestation. and surface roughness are determined according to land cover type. and look-up tables associate the cover type with a suite of parameter values. Cox et al. drier climate releases carbon that reinforces the warming. 6 Future Directions 6. and water holding capacity and thereby affects climate. In the case of SiB.. 1993). the land cover datasets used as boundary conditions in these models were derived from ground surveys. 1999. each grid cell is assigned to one of twelve land cover types. 1996. the next generation of land models currently under development includes dynamic vegetation to allow interactive coupling of climate and vegetation (Foley et al. 2001a. Soil degradation alters infiltration. This fails to represent the variety of cropping practiced throughout the world. especially the phenology of crop growth. AND OJIMA development.2 SURFACE DATASETS Models such as BATS and SiB represent the land surface through a discrete number of pre-determined land cover types (Sellers et al. 1986. 2000. 2000). Originally. Boreal deforestation cools climate as a result of higher albedo and warms climate due to carbon loss to the atmosphere but not enough to compensate for the biogeophysical cooling. In the Great Plains.. 2000).b). The climate cooling resulting from lower atmospheric CO2 concentration may offset the warming from lower albedo (Betts. Levis et al.1 MODEL DEVELOPMENT Recognizing that changes in land cover alter climate. but is important at regional scales and will become more important as the world’s population congregates in megacities. Dickinson et al...

1991. the fields can be directly used as boundary conditions in a land surface model (Bonan et al. leaf area index. 1996a.b). However. These classifications label each pixel according to the unique spectral signature and phenological profile of each cover type. 1988). so that parameterization is not straightforward. “Continuous fields” describe the land surface in terms of the pixel’s fractional cover of plant functional types. 2002.. 2000). land use alterations occur on spatial scales of 250m or less (Townshend and Justice.. 2000). Cardille and Foley. The fractional coverage estimates vary across the landscape and consequently depict gradual transitions in vegetation type and subpixel mosaics within the grid cell size of land surface models. Continuous fields have several advantages. Typically. but does not allow subgrid mixtures within grid cells.. 1997. experiments replacing large areas of the Amazon Basin with grassland are important to establish the climate sensitivity to hypothetical land cover change (Dickinson and Henderson-Sellers. 1998) and 1km (Friedl et al. 2000. 2002). Nobre et al. Costa and Foley. 1994) and later at higher resolutions of 8km (DeFries et al.. cannot capture mosaics and gradients that occur over much of the landscape (DeFries et al. by definition.. They overcome the artificial boundaries inherent in a traditional classification approach for more realistic depictions of the land surface.. Further refinements of land models also incorporated remotely sensed data directly. These experiments alter the land cover type over grid cells that are large relative to realistic changes in land cover from human land use... Henderson-Sellers et al. 1988. They also provide flexible characterization of the land surface as plant functional types that do not depend on a particular model’s land cover classification scheme. 2002). Because human processes typically operate at spatial scales considerably smaller than a model grid cell. the fields can be combined into any particular land cover classification scheme according to the cover type definitions. researchers have pursued approaches to map subpixel mixtures of vegetation at the global scale from remotely sensed data (DeFries et al. The use of these remotely sensed data improves the depiction of landscape heterogeneity within cover types.b). Many of the early simulation experiments establishing the sensitivity of climate to land cover change are based on models that crudely represent the land surface with a discrete number of land cover types. continuous fields offer a means to incorporate realistic depictions of land use change in land surface models. 1995). Traditional land cover types. 1993.. In SiB.LAND USE AND CLIMATE 309 Townshend. sub-pixel mixtures need to be incorporated in model simulation studies to realistically test the sensitivity to land use . 2002). As an alternative to characterizing the land surface with a discrete number of cover types. homogeneous land cover alterations over grid cells that cover thousands of square kilometers are not realistic. most often contain mixtures of plant types with differing physiological properties. 2000a. Because the continuous fields characterize each grid cell as the fractional coverage of plant functional types. on the other hand.. 1998. A classification approach. the remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) determines values for fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active vegetation. 1995. Finally.. Loveland et al. Alternatively. Additionally. and roughness (Sellers et al. Plant functional types allow increasingly sophisticated land surface models to assign parameters according to the vegetation’s physiological processes of carbon uptake and transpiration of water through stomata (Bonan et al. For example. Hansen et al. statistical data fusion techniques combine satellite data with contemporary land cover surveys to better represent the extent and intensity of croplands and natural vegetation and to recreate historical land use (Ramankutty and Foley.

To date.. and bare ground (DeFries et al. data from the AVHRR sensor have been used to derive “continuous fields” for several plant functional types. though this approach has only been possible to apply to the coarse resolution AVHRR 8km Global Area Coverage time series (DeFries et al. Hansen and DeFries. 2) abilities to derive continuous fields for the full suite of plant functional types represented in the models. . annual maximum NDVI. 1999.g. Efforts are currently underway to derive the continuous fields globally from MODIS data at 500m resolution (Hansen et al. including woody vegetation. the ability to identify changes in forest cover through the continuous fields approach illustrates possibilities to assess climate feedbacks from realistic.. herbaceous vegetation. 2002b) (Figure 2).b). unpublished). Applying the continuous fields method to multiple years depicts clearing and regrowth of forests. Continuous fields derived from MODIS data at 500m resolution for 2000 (Hansen.310 BONAN. Woody vegetation has been further characterized by leaf type (needleleaf and broadleaf) and leaf longevity (evergreen and deciduous). submitted). etc. sub-pixel characterizations of land use change... applied to a time-series of observations. COE. Figure 2. can characterize land use change for input into these sensitivity studies. The continuous fields are derived by applying a regression tree. Our ability to assess the effects of land use change on climate is improving as a result of advancements in three areas: 1) the next generation of land surface models with increasingly complex representation of vegetation processes. 2002a. minimum red reflectance. 2002b. Nevertheless.. AND OJIMA change. 2000a). Continuous fields. and 3) availability of globally-comprehensive remotely sensed data from MODIS and other sensors that enable identification of land cover change over large areas.) based on an annual time series of coarse resolution AVHRR or MODIS data (Hansen et al. DEFRIES. using training data from high resolution Landsat data and annual metrics describing vegetation phenology (e.

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SMITH6. University of Maryland. ELVIDGE1. CRISTINA MILESI10. North America.Q. chris. USA 5 SAIC. USGS Eros Data Center. Land Change Science. commercial and manufacturing services. the trend is for increasing numbers of people to concentrate in settlements and for the settlements to expand at their perimeters. Urbanization may be defined as those environment altering activities that create and maintain urban places. THOMAS W. Sioux Falls. The seven thousand year old history of urbanization can be seen as a consequence of evolving technological capabilities to harness resources to support greater and greater human populations and enhanced occupational specialization and diversification. Asia. Ann Arbor. 315–328.gov 2 Department of Geography. JAMES E. and Africa. Boston. CLAIRE JANTZ6. University of Michigan. Colorado USA 3 China Data Center. PAUL C.CHAPTER 18 URBANIZATION CHRISTOPHER D. GOETZ6. Today more than half of the world’s population lives in urban areas. Colorado 80303. Stanford. energy and water use. South Dakota USA 6 Department of Geography. Boulder. The physical patterns of urban areas produce distinctive spatial and spectral signatures that are recorded by many types of remotely sensed data. University of Denver. Human beings worldwide tend to cluster in spatially limited habitats occupying less than 5% of the world’s land area. (eds. WAGNER3. Sprawl on the urban fringe and exurban development are two of the more conspicuous signs of urban change but structural change permeates urban areas through continuous redevelopment and the replacement of aging infrastructures with new constructions. Kingston. In Europe. College Park. Maryland USA 9 Department of Natural Resources. communication. transportation. RAMAKRISHNA NEMANI10 NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. SETO7. with the most rapid increases occurring in the developing countries of Latin America. 325 Broadway. Gutman et al. Institute for International Studies. SCOTT J. Thus. Montana USA 1 1 Introduction Urban places may be broadly defined as the settlements where most people live and work. VOGELMANN5. RI 02881 USA 10 University of Montana.). KAREN C. plus civic activities associated with education and governance. Denver. USA. Y. IMHOFF8. urban areas are in a 315 G. WANG9. Greenbelt. University of Rhode Island. ANDREW J. CA 94305 USA 8 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Maryland USA 7 Center for Environmental Science and Policy. Printed in the Netherlands. and Japan 80% or more of the population already lives in urban areas. Michigan USA 4 Tufts University. Worldwide. Stanford University. industrialization.elvidge@noaa. Missoula. MARC L. © 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. habitation. This includes the processes of construction. SUTTON2. RHONDA RYZNER4. .

impervious surfaces increase precipitation runoff and alter the hydrology of the local watersheds. it is possible to map larger land cover classes and interpret land uses. The man-made construction of roads. the spectral mapping of dense urban . Residential land uses are often dominated by lawns. This is accomplished by a combining spatial and spectral differences between different land cover classes. These impervious surfaces replace vegetation. trees. With night time infrared bands (Landsat bands 5 and 7) it may be possible to observe the locations of high levels of energy combustion associated with commercial or industrial processes. With satellite data having pixels 0. bridges. 2 Urban Scales and Observables In terms of scale there are two end-members in orbital remote sensing data. although the level of detail is more generalized and. This construction is different from other types of disturbances in that the possibility for ecological recovery and natural biological succession is arrested by the man-made materials that are resistant to decomposition and actively maintained. Some examples include the identification of urban heat islands that contrast with the ambient temperatures of rural areas in thermal imagery.g. In regions of the world with lower per capita incomes and/or land area limitations the percent cover of constructed surfaces in urban areas are higher. and social and economic custom. constant state of redevelopment and flux that reflect both growing urban populations and the evolution of urbanizing technologies. land availability. Commercial and industrial areas have significantly greater areas devoted to buildings and transportation (impervious surfaces) than residential areas. in some cases. and open spaces but in differ