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LPG Supply, Demand & Pricing LPG Shipping & Terminals
2009 / 2010 EDITION
Demand in some retail markets has been growing. But the point at which this new capacity is needed has been put back by the collapse in global markets in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the subsequent weakness of many major economies. Weak petchem demand has forced cracker operating rates down. so too has Indonesia. Project delays and the recessionary conditions pervading commodity markets in 2009 have delayed the start-up of new trade flows. What of demand? World Seaborne LPG Trade 2008. On the other hand Western petchem markets seen as the absorber of Eastern supply surpluses have been using less LPG in 2009.2020 .new crude oil and natural gas projects designed to meet rising global energy demands. MMt/y Here too the picture in the short-term is out of synch with expected long-term trends. Today some new flows are apparent but it’s more of a trickle than a flood. Certainly the driver for increased LPG supplies remains . but the industry is still gearing up for a period of unprecedented change. China has increased LPG imports this year. Is the expected surge in LPG exports finally coming? What caused the delays and are they now resolved? Are the new volumes in total as high as previously forecast? Might the ‘surge’ be more of a gradual increase? Who will absorb the supply increase? Will China take more or less in the coming years? Do other Asian countries have more retail demand potential than it appeared a year ago? Are petchem markets going to recover and take more LPG? And if so when will that be? What does this mean for future LPG prices? Poten & Partners. Inc. – LPG in World Trade 2009 .LPG in World Trade 2009 .2020 A Poten & Partners NGL Consulting Service A year ago the long-predicted surge in LPG supplies seemed imminent. while the climate for LPG cracking has been less favorable than expected. This issue of LPG in World Trade has important questions to address. In fact low crude oil production has contributed to reduced LPG exports from some countries in 2009.
trends & intelligence.What impact will this have on shipping? Have ship owners over-built in anticipation of trade volumes that will not materialize at all or at a different point in time? Are all parts of the shipping market similarly affected? What impact has the credit crunch had on LPG shipping and how will this shape the market’s outlook? What does this mean for future shipping rates? This issue of LPG in World Trade also looks forward to 2020 and considers what will characterize the product and shipping markets in ten years’ time. drawing on our years of experience and understanding of LPG markets. Through our publications we assure our clients are kept informed about the availability. concentrating on liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) – propane & butane. shipping fixtures. That is why we have developed the LPG Portal database as part of our consulting services to provide accurate and detailed market information. In a world of rapid change and strong political influence. Our Gas Liquids Consulting Group helped develop the trade in LPG & Condensates. LPG Pricing. Published information gets quickly out of date. Today. by the 1980’s we broadened our activities to include naphtha & gas condensates. LPG in World Markets – first published in 1980. The site covers. monthly LPG export and import volumes. At first. LPG Trades. We invite you to subscribe to our new study. These multi-client studies are still an essential part of the current gas liquids business. producing and consuming regions Condensates in World Markets – comprehensive analysis of field condensates produced in their raw form from gas/oil separators. – LPG in World Trade 2009 . this monthly report provides global coverage of: contract and spot prices. values of the light refinery streams & gas liquids used as petrochemical feedstock. Poten & Partners. Gas Liquids Consulting Group Poten & Partners LPG Portal Immediate and electronic access to information is becoming even more paramount. our Gas Liquids Consulting Group has an unmatched grasp of the LPG & gas liquids markets. consumption patterns. Poten & Partner’s new LPG in World Trade will try to help you make the right decisions. Various alternative subscription packages are available. shipping trends & prospects of these gas markets. Inc. LGP Countries. pricing. Our dedicated data teams & proprietary databases provide an exceptional backbone for our services. LPG Shipping and an overview of Companies involved in the LPG market Since the late 1970’s Poten & Partners has offered consulting services on supply/demand. Single Client Studies are available on request and tailored to suit individual client needs. This market-building depended heavily on the publications we developed. we have steered a path based on underlying trends.2020 . As well as the LPG in World Trade series our multi-client studies include. spot transactions.
2020 .2020 A Poten & Partners NGL Consulting Service LPG Supply. – LPG in World Trade 2009 . Demand & Pricing Contents Table of Contents Executive Summary Global/regional overview LPG Trade flows Petrochemical Market Outlook Sensitivities LPG Pricing Structure & Forecast East of Suez LPG Overview o Middle East LPG Supply & Demand Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait Abu Dhabi Iran and elsewhere o Asia-Pacific LPG Supply & Demand Northeast Asia Southeast and South Asia China East of Suez LPG Forecast Conclusions o West of Suez LPG Overview o Africa LPG Supply & Demand North Africa West Africa European LPG Supply & Demand Northern Europe Southern Europe and the CIS Latin America LPG Supply & Demand USA LPG supply/Demand o o o Countries Section o Review of key seaborne LPG importing and exporting countries Poten & Partners. Inc.LPG in World Trade 2009 .
– LPG in World Trade 2009 .2020 . Inc.2020 A Poten & Partners NGL Consulting Service LPG Shipping Contents Introduction Executive Summary LPG Ship Values o Newbuidings – Overview Demand Factors Cost Factors LPG Carrier Newbuildings Newbuilding Yard Availability Newbuilding Prices Scrap Prices LPG Carriers Operating Costs Operating Costs Voyage Costs LPG Carriers Values by Segment o o o LPG Shipping Economics o o o o o o o Spot Freight Rate Economics Return on Investment LPG Vessel Price Assessment Economic Comparison between the Tanker Sectors Operating Costs Economics Bunkering Costs Economics Shipyard Statistics 2000-2008 LPG Fleet o The VLGC Fleet **(the below points are detailed in each Fleet segment) Profile Issues SWOT Analysis Supply Outlook Demand Outlook Supply/Demand Balance Rate Outlook o The LGC Fleet o The MCG Fleet o The Large Semi-Ref Fleet o The Small-Ref & Ethylene Fleet o The Pressure Fleet LPG Shipping Companies Appendix LPG Fleet LPG Supply/Demand Poten & Partners.LPG in World Trade 2009 .
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