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    2004 IEEE International Conference on Elect Uily Deregulation, Restructuring and Power Technologies (ORPT2004) April 2004 Hone Kong Market Based Transmission Expansion Planning: Fuzzy Risk Assessment M. Oloomi Buygi, Student Member, IEEE, G. Balzer, H.M. Shanechi, Senior Member, IEEE, and ™M., Shahidehpour, Fellow, IEEE Absract-In this paper a new market Based approach for transmission expansion planning in deregulated power systems is presented. Seeario technique is wsed in order to ‘model noo-random uncertantes, Drawbacks of criteria of Scenario technique are pointed out and new criteria are presented for risk assesement. A probabilistic tol resented for_asessing leciie markets with random ‘uncertainties, To measure how much a transmission plan Improves competi ‘market based criterion Is infroduced. The final plan is selected using fuzzy isk fastessment, The approach is. applied to IEEE 30 bus retwork. The results are compared with convention risk ‘atsessmeat to. demonstrate that fuzzy risk astesoment ‘overcomes the shortcomings of conventional risk atterment method Index: Terms Competitive electric market, Tranesssion ‘expansion planning, Uncertainty, Monte Carlo simolation, ‘Scenario technique, Fuzy rsk a |. ItRopucTion structuring and deregulation of power industry have Jhunged the objectives of transmission expansion planning and increased the uncertainties. Due to these changes, new approaches and criteria are needed for transmission planning in deregulated power systems. ‘Transmission planning follows the following objectives in deregulated power systems [1-6]: + Encouraging and facilitating the competition among clecteie market pantcipants. + Providing nomdiscriminatory acest to cheap, ‘generation forall consumers and equal access to loads for all generators, * Providing fair supply-side reserve for all generstors and fair demand-side resorve forall consumers, + Providing a robust transmission network against all ‘Being value based instead of costo reliability based, Uncertainties ean be classified as randoms and non- M.Dlouns Buys & sow with te Deprtent of Fecal Power Spats, Dusit Unversity of Tetley, Dunst, Gea ‘ul: mouonee raw de) He has Seen wth he Depart ‘ot lei! Enginowing, Feces Univers, Masta, ean 1G. Bauer is wk be Depron of Eccl Power Syn, Damtadt Univesity of Techology, Damstad, Gerany (eo here. cual) HM. Shanes is-mow with the Deparuncl of Eee Engineting, New Metco Tech, Soar, NM, 47801 USA (c-m shancehiecateda). He tas be wit the Deprinent of Hee M. Shahiseiper swith the Depart of let and Compute ngierng ln Iai of Tecnology, Cig I USA (eal rot 0-7803-8257 404817. 00620051EEE ‘random. Since the methods of modelling random and non- random uncertainties in planning are different, power system uncertainties must be identified and classified clearly before the planning process. In deregulated power systems there is random uncertainty in (1-3, 6-9] © load ‘generation costs and consequently in bd of generators ‘power and bid of independent power producers (IPPs) wheeling transactions availability of generators, lines and other system facies ‘and non-random uncertainty in [1-3, 5, 7-11] ‘generation expansion closures Toad expansion / closures installation / closure of other transmission facilities replacement of transmission facilities transmission expansion costs market rules Because ofthese uncertainties, expansion of transmission system has been faced with great risks. Since risk assessment is charactristielly based on stochastic methods, probabilistic methods should be developed for transmission planning in deregulated power systems (1-2, 10, 12-16) In section I seenario technique is reviewed and Grawbacks of scenario technique criteria are pointed out In section Il a market based tool for assessing electric markets with random uncerainics is presented. A market based criterion for measuring the goodness of, transmission plans is presented in section 1V. In section V new transmission planning approsch with fuzzy risk assessment is presented. The approach is applied to IEEE 30 bus network in section VI 1, MODELING NON-RANDOM UNCERTAINTIES Scenario technique is used to model the non-random uncertainties. A scenario (future) isa set of outcomes or realizations ofall uncertainties. Scenatios must be defined so that t cover all non-random uncertainties. The algorithm for expansion planning using scenario technique i given below [1, 5,8, 10, 15, 17} ‘© Determining the set of probable scenarios ‘© Assigning a degree of importance to each future ‘= Determining the set of possible solutions (plans) © Specifying a cost function to measure the goodness of ‘each plan ‘+ Selecting the final plan The final plan must fulfil the objective of transmission ar 2004 IEEE Intemational Conference on Elestre Utility Deregulation, Rest planning regardless of which scenario will happen Assume fis the value of cost function (criterion) ‘measuring the goodness of plan in seenrio In fact we hhave a table of ©! for F2s wn Np and FL, 2, sou Np Where N, and Ny are numbers of scenarios and plans respectively. Ifthe cost function of plan m is equal or smaller thaa the cost funetion of plan & in all scenarios, fe f™ ¢ f* for 12, ny Np dm and Pl, 2, Na plan m is selected as the final plan. Usually the sbove situstion does not happen and eiterion must be used for selecting the final plan. The following criteria are used for selecting the final plan in scenario technique (1, 8, 15, 17} expected cost, minimax regret, Laplace, Von Neumann-Morgenstern, Hurwicz, Robustness, or B+ robustness criterion. But, each eriteion has shortcoming. These shortcomings are described bellow ‘ Expected cost and Laplace: since scenarios are not repeatable, the basic assumption of probability doesnot hold and therefore these criteria are not valid for non- random uncertainties Von Newmann-Morgenstemn and Hurwice: These criteria are extremely pessimistic or extremely optimist, Robusines: this criterion is very crisp and therefore its decision isnot always logical. ferobustness and minimax regret: these criteria are used for very important decisions, where surviving under an unlikely but catastrophic scenario is needed In addition these criteria are not absolute ie. if an unrealistic plan is added to the set of plans; it will contribute tothe selection of inferior plans (8) Therefore new criteria must be defined for selecting the final plan in scenario technique. In this paper fuzzy risk assessment is used for selecting the Final plan TL. MODELING RANDOM UNCERTAINTIES In regulated power systems, probabilistic Toad flow [18-19] is used for modeling random uncertainties in \eansmission planning, In these environments transmission planning decisions are made based on the technical criteria such as the probability of violating line Now limits andéor bus voltage limits. ‘To achieve the objectives of transmission planning in deregulated power systems, market based criteria are ‘needed in addition to the technical criteria, In order to define and compute probabilistic market based criteria, we need to compute the probability density functions (PDFS) of variables that market performance can be assessed by analyzing them. These variables should be affected by technical and market dynamics, changes and evolutions. ‘This paper proposes to compute the PDFS of nodal prices for assessing the performance of electric market. In this section a probabilistic too, named probabilistic locational marginal prices, is presented for computing the PDFs of ‘oda prices or locational marginal prices (LMP) By definition "LMP is the cost of supplying next MW of load at a specitic location, considering generation marginal cost, cost of transmission congestion, and 428, incturng nd Power Technologies (DRPT2004) April 2004 Hong Kong losses" [20]. LMPs for @ given operating point are computed using optimal load flow. LMPS are the Lagrange multipliers or shadow prices of DC power flow constraints [2, 21]. To compute the PDFs of LMPs for a specified scenario, Monte Carlo simulation is used. The algorithm is as follows: 1. Determine the unavailability of exch transmission facility (ransmission line. generator, load, ..) and assign a standard uniform PDF to each one Determine PDFs of all random inputs for the peak load of planning horizon including 2.1. PDF of each Joad. A method for determining the PDEs of loads is described in (22) PDF of bid ofeach generating unit PDF of maximum accessible power of cach IPP. PDF of input power to fourput power from the study area due to transactions with neighboring. areas or wheeling transactions via each te line. Note tha the power of some te lines may depend fon the power of other tie lines, In this case etermine the dependent tie lines and the dependency relation. ick a number randomly from the standard uniform PDF of each transmission facility and compare it with its unavailability. If the umber is greater than its ‘unavailability this facility ison else it sof. Pick @ number from the PDF of each input randomly and compute the value of dependent inputs. Run the optimal load flow for the network configuration of step 3 and operating point of step 4 and save the outputs including LMPs. Repeat the steps 3, 4 and 5 great numberof times. Fita PDF to the samples of each output 23, 2a, IV. MARKET BASED CRITERION ‘The main objective of transmission planning in deregulated power systems is to provide a non- discriminatory competitive environment for all stakeholders, while maintaining power system reliability. To achieve this objective, it is imperative to define some criteria to measure how competitive an eletcic market is and how much a specific expansion plan improves the competition (orth step of scenario technique), A. Perfect Competitive Markets: In a perfect competitive market, which consists of infinite number of producers and consumers, the price is determined by interaction ofall producers and consumers {In this market there is no discrimination among producers or consumers ie. all producers and consumers sell and ‘buy atthe same price. Ina competitive market there is no restriction for consumers to buy from any one produce, To have a competitive electric market, the above conditions must be satisfied. In other words, to have a competitive electric market, all power producers and ‘consumers must sell and buy electric energy at the same price and there should be no restriction on transfer of power. This requires that all LMPs at all buses be equal 2004 IBEE International Conference on Elesrc Utilty Deregulation, Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRPT2004} April 2004 Hong Kong. and transmission congestion be removed. B. Congestion Cost If there is no transmission constraint in the network, the next MW of all loads is supplied by the cheapest undispetched generation (marginal generator), Hence, LMPs of all buses are equal and total congestion cost of the nework is zero.When wansmission network is constrained; the next MW of some loads ean not be supplied by the cheapest undispatched generation. The rext MW of these loads, depending on their locations in the network, is supplied by other more expensive generations and hence theie LMPS ate different and total Congestion cost is greater than zero, Increase (decrease) in total congestion cost means increase (decrease) in transmission network constraints and LMP differences. Increase (decrease) in network constrainis means increase (decrease) in customer constraints to buy energy from producer of choive and increase (decrease) in LMP differences means increase (decrease) in price discrimination. Therefore, increasing (decreasing) ‘otal congestion cost means discouraging (encouraging) competition and hence average of total congestion cost is a proper criterion for measuring the degree of competitiveness of an electric market Difference between average congestion cost of existing network and the network after planning shows how much the designed plan has improved competition and hence can be used as a eriterion for measuring the goodness of transmission plans. LV. TRANSMISSION EXPANSION PLANNING WET FUZZY In this section a transmission planning approach with fuzzy tisk assessment will be presented. The approach consists ofthe following three steps [23]: A. Representation ofthe Decision Problem Consider a network and assume we want {0 design @ wansmission expansion plan for a specified planning horizon. Suppose N, scenarios are identified to cover the ‘non-random uncertainties. Compute the PDFs of the LLMPs for the peak load of planning horizon for each scenario using the algorithm of section I 4a) Idenfication of decision alternatives set ‘Compute the mean of LMP for each bus. A high mean of LMP at a bus indicates restricted access 10 cheap generation and a low mean of LMP indicates access to ‘excess cheap generation and no access to enough loads. Hence, if a new transmission line is added between two ‘buses with low and high mean of LMPS, excess cheap generation will be dispatched and electric energy will flow from low LMP bus to high LMP bus due to price potential difference. Therefore between each {wo buses that have LMP difference greater than a specified value, now line is suggested as decision alternative. The set of decision altematives is equal to union of decision alternatives in differen seenaios. 1) Identification of decision evteria set: ‘Add each of decision alternatives to the network and compute the average congestion cost for each scenario Suppose ACC* is the average congestion cost of plan k (vision altemative ) in scenario L Now we havea table Of ACC for K=I,2, -y Ne and Ft, 2, Nand must select the final plan Minimax regret is used for risk assessment in scenario technique. Regret is # measure of risk end is defined as the difference between the cost of selected solution and the cost of an optimal solution that would have been selected if planners knew beforehand which ofthe future scenarios would happen {10, 15], Here, by cost we mean the value of any cost function or criterion used for ‘measuring the goodness of transmission plans. AS ‘mentioned in section I scenario technique criteria have Aeawbacks. In this section a set of decision criteria is

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