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The Six Sigma Process

The Six Sigma Process

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The Six Sigma Process In this module we introduce the Six Sigma process.

Many companies have tailored this process to meet their specific needs and so have their own version of the process. We will use a fairly generic process that should serve you well even if your company process is a bit different. Reference • This module is based The Six Sigma Handbook, by Thomas Pyzdek, published by McGraw-Hill, and Six Sigma for Dummies, by Craig Gygi, Neil DeCarlo, and Bruce Williams, published by Wiley Publishing, Inc. Slide two The primary references for this module are shown on the slide, but I’ve also been influenced by other things I’ve read and learned over the years.

Why study the Six Sigma process? • You need a common process that may be used to guide all quality improvement projects in the Company • The Six Sigma process is the state-of-the-art process for doing “problem solving” projects, and those projects are the heart of quality improvement • The Six Sigma process is PROVEN Slide three We mentioned in our quality management module that a company needed to create a common quality culture so that all its associates know how to interact and work within that culture. Over the last few years, a Six Sigma process has served as that culture for many of the top global organizations. As a result, we have learned a lot about the process and how to make it work extremely well. I am sure we will continue to improve it in future years, but I believe it is very good for professionals to have a solid understanding of the state-of-the-art process today. This process is a proven process that has had a great impact in many different companies around the globe. 4 Outline • Motivation and background • Define • Measure

• Analyze • Improve • Control Slide four Since you are enrolled in this course you probably do not need additional motivation to convince you to study the Six Sigma process. Nonetheless, we will provide a couple of slides of motivation and background before launching into the standard define, measure, analyze, improve, and control steps of a typical Six Sigma project. 5 Examples of the Impact of Six Sigma • General Electric: $7 - $10B in 5 years • Dupont: $2.4B in 4 years • Bank of America: $100Ms, cycle time improvements greater than 50%, errors reduced by an order of magnitude in 3 years • Motorola: $2.2B in 4 years • Caterpillar: Paid for itself the first year Slide five We have listed some examples of the impact of the Six Sigma process on some high profile manufacturing and service organizations. The magnitude of these results justifies the statement that Six Sigma was of strategic importance for these organizations. It is easier to obtain information about Six Sigma impacts from larger and higher profile companies than others. However, it will be easy for you to see as we go through this module that the tools and methods of Six Sigma would apply to any professional organization, large or small. It will also be easy to see that they apply to manufacturing companies, service organizations, and healthcare organizations. I obtained the information on Caterpillar from their website and thought it was interesting that a $35 billion a year company could implement Six Sigma and have it pay for itself in the first year. This is important since companies are sometimes reluctant to implement a Six Sigma process for fear that it will take a while to start paying back. I think sometimes the companies themselves are too patient with the process and should demand more. In late 2005, I started to work with a $50 million a year company on the implementation of a quality revolution via a Six Sigma process, and so I know that it works in smaller firms. This particular firm is already a leader in its industry but wants to get even better. It is true that the implementation may be a little different since a smaller firm that cannot afford the dedicated resources like the larger

companies listed in the slide. We will try to point out some of these differences as we go through this module. 6 How Did Six Sigma Get Its Name? If the area under the curve represents 1,000,000 parts, then the area Under the curve but OUTSIDE the specification limit bars is 3.4 parts. The area between the specification limits is actually +/- 4.5 σ, not +/- 6 σ. The 1.5 σ difference allows for some “noise” in the process.

Slide six It is interesting to note that in a statistically pure sense Six Sigma is really 4.5 Sigma. The slide will help us explain why that is true. In statistics, Sigma is a Greek letter that is commonly used to mean the standard deviation for a normal probability distribution. Assuming such a distribution, there are many probabilistic statements that we may make. For example, if we were to take the area under the bell shaped curve from plus one standard deviation to the right of the center line (which is the mean) to one standard deviation to the left of the center line, it would contain 68% of the total area under the bell shaped curve. If we were to subdivide the entire area under the curve into one million equal parts, and then place vertical specification limits at plus 4.5 sigma and -4.5 sigma as illustrated in the chart, then 3.4 of the equal parts would fall outside the upper and lower specification limits, but still under the curve. This is the statistical basis for the Six Sigma process. If you were to measure the area outside plus or minus Six Sigma, you would find only 0.002 of one unit out of the one million equal units mentioned above. So why the difference between Six Sigma and 4.5 sigma? The 1.5 sigma difference is to allow for an inability to keep a process perfectly centered at all times. So it allows our real-world distribution to slide to the left or the right and still maintain the 3.4 defects per million standard. So now you know that Six Sigma got its name by really being 4.5 sigma! 7 Definition of Six Sigma • “Six Sigma is a problem-solving methodology for minimizing mistakes and maximizing value” • Source: Six Sigma for Dummies, Gygi et al. Slide seven

Here we have a simple definition of Six Sigma that emphasizes both minimizing mistakes and maximizing value, implying that Six Sigma can be used to impact both the bottom line and the top line for a company. Let’s contrast this definition to the two others that follow. 8 Definition of Six Sigma • “Six Sigma is a rigorous, focused and highly effective implementation of proven quality principles and techniques that aims for virtually error free business performance” • Source: The Six Sigma Handbook, Pyzdek. This second definition of Six Sigma adds additional insights into some of the “how” of Six Sigma by introducing quality principles and techniques, but notice that there is no reference in this definition to anything on the top line. Both of these first two definitions come from the practitioner environment. Let’s look at a third definition that a group of academics put together. 9 Definition of Six Sigma • “Six Sigma is an organized parallel-meso structure to reduce variation in organizational processes by using improvement specialists, a structured method, and performance metrics with the aim of achieving strategic objectives” • Source: “Six Sigma: Definition and Underlying Theory” by Schroeder, et al. Roger Schroeder is the academic director of the Juran Center for Leadership in Quality at the University of Minnesota. When this center was being formed, the University sought 10 donors to each give $100,000 to create a $1 million endowment to start the center. Dr. Juran was one of the first donors that they approached. He liked the idea so much, that he gave the entire $1 million in order to get things going! The center engages in a variety of activities to support its primary theme of leadership and quality. One of its activities is a bi-annual Summit that is really geared to practicing professionals in industry. I was fortunate to receive a $4000 faculty Fellowship to attend the 2006 summit. The Fellowship covered the $3500 registration fee and deferred some of my travel expenses. It was a very impressive conference, and I would encourage you to go if you ever have the opportunity. One of the co-authors of the paper referenced in this slide is a professor named Kevin Linderman. Kevin earned his Ph.D. degree in operations management from the Weatherhead School of Management before joining the faculty at the Carlson School of Business at the University of Minnesota. I was fortunate to serve as his doctoral advisor and continue to work with him.

This definition sounds more like what an academic would write, but it has its virtues. The parallel structure to which it refers means the structure outside the normal departmental, hierarchical structure in organizations. We have mentioned earlier that a Quality Council typically forms this structure. The meso word in the definition simply means that it reaches over all vertical levels in the organization. You may remember our definition of total quality management talked about extending to all employees from the top to the bottom of the organization, so this means the same thing. This definition adds still more content by talking about improvement specialists, a structured method, and performance metrics. Those of you with some familiarity of the Six Sigma process would agree, I believe, that these are accurate descriptions. One of the most important differences in this definition from the earlier two is the reference to achieving corporate strategic objectives. You may recall in the quality management module that I talked about how some companies have divorced their quality management process from their corporate strategy. Clearly, these authors have made that connection and close an important loophole in the earlier definitions. So even though this definition is a longer definition than the other two, I believe it is a better definition with greater content than the other two. 10 Outline • Motivation and background • Define • Measure • Analyze • Improve • Control We now turn to the first of the five widely recognized steps of a Six Sigma project: define. When Motorola originally developed the Six Sigma process, it actually consisted of eight steps. The first step was to recognize, meaning that we needed to recognize a need. The last two steps after control were to sustain and institutionalize. Today, the control step generally includes the activities associated with sustaining and institutionalizing. 11 Defining Projects • Finding the right problems • Defining them correctly – one bite at a time

and imagine improving the quality only using the processes that you use while routinely running the business. A piece of that project that might be defined as a Six Sigma project would be to implement the Accounts Receivable module of the ERP package for a particular business unit. Costs are at the top of our list. It is important that we use the Six Sigma projects on the right problems or opportunities. and literally hundreds of man years of effort to complete. a major thrust of the Six Sigma process is to make our operations more efficient and thereby reduce costs. We can invest in new and exciting technology that improves our operations. A rough guideline for a Six Sigma project is a 90 day completion time. Make no mistake about it. Such a project would probably require eight to 10 years or more. For this reason. An example of a project that would not fit the typical Six Sigma definition would be to implement an ERP system worldwide in every location of every GE facility. Such reductions allow us to become more competitive in many ways. but this at least gives you some sense of the scope. We can lower our prices vis-à-vis the competition. The reason we call them Y’s will become apparent later in this module. We can pay our people more competitive salaries and wages. 12 Defining Projects: Focus on the Big Business Y’s • Costs • Customer or employee satisfaction • Process capability • Output capacity • Cycle time • Revenue potential • Consistent with corporate strategy! To generate ideas for Six Sigma projects. An important aspect of defining them correctly is to define them to be of manageable size. you can see that you probably would not achieve the rate of improvement that you need to remain competitive. our first major step is to define one or more Six Sigma projects that will help us address that need. some could be shorter and some could be longer.• Performance improvement in a company is typically one project at a time! Assuming that we have identified a need in our organization through some means. we say focus on the big business Y’s. we use a project approach in order to try to accelerate the rate of quality improvement efforts and successes in a company. It’s hard to see how reducing cost . If you think about the quality improvement effort needed in a typical company. Thus we say that quality is improved one project at a time. What we mean are the primary business outcomes listed as bullets in the slide. We will develop criteria a little later to help identify these. We talked about the parallel structure for a Six Sigma process in the last definition above. Clearly. We can improve our own profitability.

he explained to me that the company performed a customer satisfaction survey for every customer every year and did the same thing for every employee. as opposed to a driving force in and of itself. Lester Coleman who had a passion for quality. Many in the automotive industries believe that the obsessive application of the concept of process capability is what led the Japanese automotive companies to their superior quality position in the industry. Dr. we can be ahead of the game. These two metrics were widely regarded as the two most important metrics driving the company’s success. So if we chose the point as the final inspection and acceptance of the part at a workstation. At the time. Cycle time has been a common measure of performance in industry for a long. We could reduce the cycle time for machining a . The financial performance of the company was seen to be the result of achieving these metrics. Coleman and I ran an executive workshop entitled Total Quality Management: A Top-Down Approach through the Weatherhead Executive Education program. This meant that if the council made a decision different from what Dr. He explained to me that the company had undergone a major reorganization and that a number of people who were running businesses and producing sound financial results were replaced with new people because the prior individuals were not running the businesses using the kind of quality principles that the company felt important to its long-term success. A number of years ago I had the opportunity to work with the CEO of Lubrizol Corp. To the degree that capacity can be increased without having to add expensive capital equipment that often requires long lead times to acquire. their decision would rule. top executives feel very comfortable focusing Six Sigma efforts on cost reduction. Coleman would make for a particular problem.can possibly hurt our company. the cycle time is the average time from doing this for one part until the next. the chairman and CEO was Dr. So certainly Six Sigma projects aimed at improving process capability make a lot of sense and are very popular. He hosted me for an extended visit to his headquarters office and shared many insights with me about Lubrizol’s approach to quality. Dr. we will study the quantitative definition of process capability. The most detailed level is typically the cycle time for producing a part in a machine. long time. It has been generally assumed that the shorter we can make the cycle time the greater the velocity of inventory movement through our system. In recent years. During the session. Many companies who have succeeded in implementing a Six Sigma culture find themselves in a strong growth mode. In such applications. We will study customer satisfaction in a later module and you will see why this is so important. Thus. Many companies place a very strong emphasis on both customer and employee satisfaction. another area or focus of Six Sigma projects is output capacity. in fact. it is defined as the average time between the same point in the time cycle for producing a part. the lean manufacturing movement has challenged whether. Improving this velocity should simultaneously improve customer service and reduce inventory carrying costs. this occurs. Because cost reductions are so safe. When we study statistical process control later in the semester. It can be applied at different levels in the process. Coleman was so secure as a professional and so passionate in his beliefs in quality that he empowered the corporate Quality Council at Lubrizol with the final authority for corporate decisions.

those objectives should be consistent with your corporate strategy. some people implementing TQM lost sight of that aspect of the definition and undertook projects that might be described as “feel-good” projects rather than hard-core business . The Six Sigma process has come to mean that there is a hard edge to the financial impact. If we measure cycle time at a higher level. that whatever objectives you seek with your Six Sigma improvement projects. 13 Defining Projects: The Criteria • Financial impact – Earnings before income tax –Net profit before income tax – Significant strategic value • Gain significantly greater than cost • Solves a problem not easily solved any other way – often cross-functional • Improves performance dramatically (70% goal) over existing Slide thirteen In most business settings. I heard the CEO of one of GE’s businesses say that one of the things that Jack Welch brought to the GE Six Sigma process was to focus it on the top line as well as the bottom line. The next objective for Six Sigma projects is revenue potential. namely. So how do we choose between them? We need additional criteria to help us make this decision. If you review our definition of TQM from the quality management module. Many Six Sigma proponents claim this differentiates Six Sigma from TQM. We often refer to this as the top line rather than the bottom line. we could define many projects that could impact the outcomes listed in the previous slide. However. you will see that the financial impact was there right from the beginning. There is no reason why the Six Sigma methodology could not be used to help identify new market opportunities and develop and implement plans to exploit those opportunities.particular part on a particular machine. you may focus your efforts more on increasing acceleration than on fuel economy. I added the final bullet in the slide. then decreasing the cycle time at this machine may not produce the desired customer service nor inventory effects. it may provide a more meaningful metric for our Six Sigma efforts. such as how long it takes after we receive a customer order until we ship the order to the customer. even if fuel economy is a more socially acceptable objective. When I attended the Summit at the Juran Center in the summer of 2006. So if your corporate strategy is to produce and sell a high performance sports sedan. but if we produce in batches and the batch sits and waits for days or weeks before being moved to the next workstation for processing.

A counter argument is why would you do those projects if there are other projects you can do that generate 70% improvements? While I believe a company should exercise some flexibility in choosing projects and so sometimes projects with goals less than 70% improvement might be selected. Once we can state it in Six Sigma terms. While I believe that it is important to set aggressive goals for Six Sigma projects. or by one person. In addition to a rigid requirement for financial impact. So we start with a practical problem. clearly this is a very ambitious goal. I think it's also important to point out that most managers will be very happy if we achieve 20 or 30% improvements even though our goal was 70. this is a problem with the implementation of TQM but not with the substance of TQM. we should simply do it that way since that would be the easiest way. In most companies. another hallmark of Six Sigma projects is very aggressive goals. and that cannot be done within one department. projects of that scope do not provide great leverage for improving the company’s performance as compared to projects that are more challenging and complex and cross multiple department boundaries.projects. In the corporate strategy field. The solution allows us to establish a control plan based on the solution. as opposed to an incremental improvement. I think it is a good thing to keep the hard edged financial goals in place for Six Sigma projects. If it can be done within one department. 14 Slide fourteen Some of the references that I studied to learn about Six Sigma suggest a project lifecycle as illustrated in this slide. I grant. we then translate it into a statistical problem for which we can find a statistical solution. I believe the reason goals as ambitious as 70% are proposed is to really put pressure on the team to try to find a revolutionary improvement. To me. and cast it in the context of a Six Sigma project. A typical Six Sigma project should be a challenging project that is not easily done. A common metric is to improve an existing process by 70%. however. which can then be translated into a . So such projects don't get done and the organization doesn't enjoy the benefits from them. this would be called a Big Hairy Audacious Goal (BHAG). that the Six Sigma movement has placed the financial impact front and center and as a result gained wider acceptance than the TQM process. I have heard professionals who work in a hard-core Six Sigma environments lament the fact that many good projects that might save 20 or 30% are rejected at the outset because they do not meet a higher standard.

we are probably more flexible than this diagram would suggest. it is common for black belts to work exclusively on Six Sigma projects and to have no other job responsibilities. So you could say these are essentially internal consultants. If you are interested in learning more about the definition for each belt you may consult the website of the American Society for Quality at www. The more important aspect is to implement the approach and methodologies of Six Sigma. it would be very difficult to dedicate resources in this fashion. followed by a green belt. regardless of who in your company does the implementation. Finally. So we would probably use the word analytical in place of statistical. the results are handed over to the process owner for implementation and control to enjoy the benefits of the project team achievements. As the slide above shows. and then the belts take over in the detailed steps of the Six Sigma project. 15 Slide fifteen The most publicized implementations of Six Sigma have come from large companies that garner more press than the smaller ones. it is a management responsibility to define the Six Sigma projects that need to be done to support the business.org. Certainly. and analytical would include quantitative and technical analysis as well as just logical analysis using simple tools of quality. 16 Assessing Business Needs • Voice of the customer (VOC) . and finally a Master Black belt. A common requirement for a black belt is that the person must have led at least one Six Sigma project. a smaller organization could implement the Six Sigma process without having to dedicate employees full time to serve as belts. As we study Six Sigma.practical solution that achieves the desired results. These large companies have created a hierarchy of socalled Six Sigma belts.asq. The different belts that I have heard about start with a yellow belt at the lowest level. then a black belt. In the larger companies. For smaller firms.

One way to achieve this would be to simply raise prices. Overall. Many of us may have pet projects that we have wanted to do for years. our __________ performance for the ______ area is not meeting _________. 17 The Business Case Template for Project Identification “As a company.” One of the Six Sigma references I consulted suggested that every project proposal should have a business case made for it. this is causing lost sales and goodwill problems. services • Voice of the business (VOB) –Needs and expectations of the business. that are costing us as much as $____ per _____. that are costing us as much as $500k per year. our repair parts availability performance for the customer service area is not meeting customer expectations.” Use silent brainstorming techniques to develop business cases. including owners and participants • Problems exist when VOC and VOB are misaligned When we are defining Six Sigma projects. 18 Business Case Example “As a company. The voice of the business might be telling us that we need higher profits. Such prescreening saves everybody time. The problem with such a strategy is that the voice of the customer may be telling us we need to lower prices. we need to consider both the voice of the customer and the voice of the business in order to support our selection of the right projects. the statement above is a more forceful statement then simply suggesting we should look into our repair parts operation. So if we are forced to make a business case for our pet project. but these may not be the best projects for the business to undertake. Overall. 19 . we may see the weaknesses in that case so that we don't even propose it. expectations about your products. this is causing _________ problems. This slide contains a good example of a business case statement to support the submission of a Six Sigma project proposal for consideration. The statement in this slide is a template for a business case statement. As you can see. So perhaps a better project in this situation would be to look at the largest cost elements of our products and try to figure out a way to lower those costs substantially. The reason for this is to cause people to think in business terms rather than in personal terms. so that we could simultaneously lower our prices for customers and improve our profit margins for a business.– Customer needs.

The Project Definition Process • Start with the Six Sigma Equation y = f(x) + ε • y is the business outcome • f is the function by which business inputs are transformed into outputs • x represents the inputs used to create the output. materials. The Greek letter epsilon represents the uncertainty or error in the transformation process. and to achieve the outcome with fewer inputs. Identify the associated processes and their physical locations 3. This slide helps us to understand why we used the letter y. A Six Sigma project team should be able to specify the outcome. An ideal Six Sigma project starts with the general equation shown in this slide. In other words. people. 20 The Steps in the Project Definition Process 1. the transformation process. Identify the cost and impact of the problem 5. we introduced the big business Y’s as the foci for Six Sigma projects. Typically. Y stands for the business outcome that we are trying to achieve. equipment. and the nature of the error or uncertainty in the process at a very early stage. information • The ε is the error or uncertainty in the transformation process Slide nineteen In an earlier slide. Determine the y: what are you trying to improve? 2. A common goal for a Six Sigma project is to reduce or eliminate epsilon. F is the function by which business inputs are transformed into the process outputs. this function has many inputs so we can have many different x values to consider. the inputs. money. we seek to improve the efficiency of the process. Determine the baseline performances of each y chosen 4. Ιdentify and recruit candidates for the project team . Write the objective statement 7. Write the problem statement 6.

they can use different teams for different parts of the project so as to fit the best people to the needs of the smaller projects. . 21 The Steps in the Project Definition Process 1. A simple test will often help the team discover if their objectives are becoming too broad. The reason for this is that the team members know a lot about the process that is being studied. Determine the y: what are you trying to improve? • Carefully choose and define the y • If there are more than two y’s. In many cases. and to allow a greater variety of people to participate in the process. we can simply stop this line of investigation.8. Companies that implement Six Sigma feel that it is better to do a series of short. Are we trying to reduce the scrap rate for a process? Are we trying to reduce the number of errors made in picking parts from our warehouse for customer orders? Are we trying to reduce the number of errors made in the documentation that we ship with our product? The selection of the outcome is critical because it will focus all the project team’s efforts as a result. The team has to resist this temptation. as the project team starts to discuss the project. it will become broader and broader in scope. Obtain approvals and launch Slide twenty With the background concepts for the define step in the Six Sigma project in mind. If the number of outcomes that they seek to influence becomes more than two. it probably means that the project should be subdivided into two or more smaller projects. Eight simple steps are spelled out in this slide. The quality leadership team should try to see to it that this doesn't happen. you may need to subdivide the project Slide twenty-one The first step is simply being able to articulate what outcome you're trying to improve. Of course. hard-hitting projects that get completed in a short amount of time with a modest amount of resources and then move on to another set of projects. So they put a lot of effort into defining a series of small projects that add up to the impact of one large project. We will look at each one of these in turn. a possible price to be paid for this strategy is a loss of continuity from project team to project team. Using the small project approach. we can now look at the specific steps in the project definition process. which means that more and more elements of the process are included in the project. It's also true that if information is revealed from earlier projects that suggest that continuing in this direction is going to yield fewer benefits than expected. They have a natural tendency to engage in objective creep.

the outcome to be sought is obtained through the behavior of one or more processes. In addition to simply listing them and identifying their locations. the inputs that the processes use. Some companies have developed some fairly elaborate techniques in the construction of these diagrams. Identify the associated processes and their physical locations • Identify the processes involved in creating the y • Create at least a high level process map for each using flow chart techniques. and the suppliers for those inputs. This diagram identifies the customers of a process. So the second step in the project definition process is to briefly spell out what these operational processes are. a recommended approach is to create some sort of a high-level process map for each process. Even in small company environments. Determine the baseline performances of each y chosen • How bad is bad? . We will talk more about how to use such tools in a later module. it is common that these elements are located in different geographies and so coordination becomes an issue. A more elaborate form of a simple flowchart that has gained favor in Six Sigma projects is called a SIPOC diagram. customers) • Identify the locations of the processes Slide twenty-two In the normal Six Sigma project. or a SIPOC diagram (suppliers. This can be done utilizing a flowchart which we will study in our tools of quality module. One technique is to move the flowchart symbol into a column that represents a particular department. the processes used to create the outputs. 23 The Steps in the Project Definition Process 3. but it gives all involved a clear picture of which department is responsible for which steps in the process. the outputs they receive. inputs. outputs. The flowchart then appears to jump back and forth between departments.22 The Steps in the Project Definition Process 2. processes.

is this project worth doing? To answer the question. is the magnitude of those gains large compared to the costs of doing the project? The second area to consider is so-called soft savings or gains. The team may want to obtain any documentation of the process performance from the process owners.• Measure and plot performance (a control chart might be used to show the behavior over time) Slide twenty-three Once the big picture is clear and the processes have been identified. an example is improved customer satisfaction leading to additional business • Potential savings . do we believe there are some hard savings from this project in the form of reduced costs or expenses that are likely to result from our efforts? If so. better. If you implement the system and provide better information to your customers and your business picks up. or cheaper. the next step is to assess their health. This is a potential benefit. a tool of quality that we will study later. then perhaps we need to look elsewhere for our Six Sigma project ideas.are hard savings but require action to achieve.reduce expenses to produce a financial improvement • Soft savings (or gains) . but it cannot be guaranteed. This could include statistical process control charts. This better tracking allows you to answer customer inquiries about the progress of their orders more exactly. it may still be difficult to claim that it was because of the improved . suppose you are implementing an ERP system that allows you to closely track your production as it moves through your facility. As an example. the Six Sigma process suggests that we consider the three potential areas of impact shown in the slide. but it does allow you to communicate the status of the orders more accurately to the customers. Assuming that the team decides that there are opportunities for improving one or more of the processes involved in producing the outcome we seek. This could cause your customers to decide that your firm is a better managed firm than your competitors and it might make them less likely to switch to a competitor.are financial benefits that may occur as a result of your project. Identify the cost and impact of the problem • Is it worth doing? • Hard savings . but cannot be directly measured and related to your work. How bad are the processes? If they are performing at world-class standards. First. but should produce a material savings Slide twenty-four Now we come to the real question. we can move to the next step in the definition process. 24 The Steps in the Project Definition Process 4. an example is a re-design of a product that has not yet been implemented. It does not necessarily help you get their orders done faster.

In some instances. but you have to implement the process in order to make the gain. You do a financial analysis and discover that if you purchased it. we do want the elements listed in this slide to be included. 25 The Steps in the Project Definition Process 5. 26 The Steps in the Project Definition Process 5. but you will see that our concise statement is much longer than the alternative that we present. overzealous writers of problem statements might tell us many details of specific situations that have led them to propose a Six Sigma project. This standard format helps decision-makers compare potential projects so that they can make good choices of which to staff and support. So even though we say concise. Write the problem statement concisely • Description of problem and metric used • Where the problem is occurring by process name and location • The timeframe over which the problem has been occurring • The size or magnitude of the problem Slide twenty-five The fifth step in the problem definition process is to write a concise problem statement. you don't currently have the software to support it.communication rather than other things going on in your business. The combination looks economically viable. and will make it more difficult for the quality leadership team to understand exactly what is being proposed. your team should always include all the potential benefits in order to make the strongest case for consideration of implementing your ideas. We have an example in the next slide. However. Write the problem statement concisely • Poor problem statement – our customer service levels on repair parts are too low and must be improved . it would help improve your accuracy and that you would need fewer order entry people. Suppose you are doing a study of order entry errors made by order entry personnel when processing fax orders. When your team presents its findings to the quality leadership team of your company. The final area for consideration is potential savings. You discover that a number of your customers have the capability of doing EDI. Such statements will not be as concise as if we follow the template in this slide.

although it is longer than the first. Write the objective statement • How much is enough? • Entitlement – is the best performance that a process as currently designed has delivered in actual operation • The Hidden Factory – is all the indirect or overhead expense needed to do things the way you do them. But if we look at daily production . These are below the target levels of 95% across the board. Here the critical question is how aggressive should be objective statement be? In addition to the standard suggestion of a 70% improvement. I think it is easy to see from this example that a good template should be used in your company to guide the development of problem statements. there are some other ideas in our slide. and 86 per cent for all others. The second statement. Currently. rework stations • Breakthrough Improvement – a standard rate for Six Sigma projects is 70 per cent • Write an aggressive objective statement that specifies both the metric improvement and the time to achieve it Slide twenty-seven After we write a problem statement. Slide twenty-six We provide a not so good example of a problem statement in this slide and then a better example. and profit by 35 per cent of that if we could achieve our target. Suppose that the project is focused on reducing the scrap rate of the manufacturing process. for example. causing us to set up the interrupted job twice at an average cost of $500 per job. they have resulted in interruptions of 10 per cent of our jobs in order to process emergency orders. we estimate that we could increase revenue by $500k per year. 27 The Steps in the Project Definition Process 6. Based on production records.• Better problem statement – our customer service levels on repair parts average 78 per cent for high volume parts. the average scrap rate for the process is 2% of all the units produced. the next step is to write an objective statement. is a much more forceful statement that does allow the reader to at least consider what the impact might be under different assumptions about the effectiveness of the solution. it provides no ability for the reader to assess the potential impact of addressing the problem. Notice that the poor problem statement is general and vague. The first idea is the concept of entitlement. Based on customer quotes that were rejected due to length of time needed to fill the order.

5% rate is the entitlement rate. As a result. you may need to get permission from each person's supervisor in order to approach them about serving on your team. we find that at one point in time for a few weeks the process averaged a scrap rate of only one half of 1%. suppose that you have not developed any computerized methods of ordering replenishment orders in your purchasing department. Since the process has demonstrated that it is capable of producing this rate. however.5%. Notice the last bullet on this slide. It is important to put some bounds around the project objective. Ιdentify and recruit candidates for the project team • Process experts from each of the processes involved • Be sure they can devote the time to the project • At least one person with broad expertise in the problem solving process and the various tools that can help Slide twenty-eight If every step in the project definition process so far appears to meet the standards in effect in your company. It would probably be pretty easy to develop some intelligent purchasing reordering rules that would take care of 70 or 80% of the orders that you place on your suppliers. This puts some pressure on the project team to maintain a brisk schedule throughout the duration of the project. you have to have a purchasing agent review every purchase order before it's released to a supplier for processing. or 0. that the software has to be developed only once whereas the purchasing agent reviews go on and on. so you should not only specify the metric improvement but also the amount of time you expect it to take to achieve it. our objective is to figure out how to make it do this all the time rather than just on a rare occasion. The 0. The hidden factory is all the indirect or overhead operations that are required because of the way you currently do business. A second aspect to consider involves the concept of the hidden factory. but it should keep the pressure on the project team. The end result of this could be to substantially reduce the number of purchasing agents needed to do all these purchase order reviews. in other words the elimination of some of the hidden factory. You might say we are merely transferring the hidden factory from the purchasing department to the information systems group to do the programming. You want to get the best possible people to serve on your project . The timeline does not need to be at breakneck speed timeline. Depending on the culture in your company. For example. 28 The Steps in the Project Definition Process 7. Notice. you can now consider potential team members for the project.records for the process. and that could be done directly by the computer with no human intervention.

Even though this is the step where you seek formal approval. Another important point is to make sure that the people on the team can devote adequate time to the project.team. you should typically have discussed this project with the process owner and appropriate members of the quality leadership team long before now. What remains is to obtain the approval of the quality leadership team for your project and launch. It may very well be the case. 29 The Steps in the Project Definition Process 8. You should have received encouragement from those conversations in order to proceed to this point. even though this is unlikely to be the entire process. since the faculty member who had been recommended was not widely regarded as a good instructor. A few years ago. I called one of them and asked for his opinion of the recommendation that I had received. He told me that he thought the chairperson who made the recommendation was trying to solve the chairperson’s problem and not my problem. and keep the pressure on the team to perform Slide twenty-nine With our staffing lined up. you can still have a resource person who does bring wide and deep knowledge about the problem-solving process and the various tools available. If this individual is very positive and passionate about your project. that a number of your first choices are already booked heavily on other projects. Since I had a number of friends on the engineering faculty. This particular need was for an engineering professor and so I obtained a recommendation from one of the department chairs in the engineering school. I kept searching. A final point is to make sure the team has a Six Sigma or quality expert on the team. we are almost good to go. Be careful and do not accept team members for your team that you do not believe can do the job. This may either cause you to delay the timing of your project kickoff or to accept other choices for your project team. If your company is a small company and does not have the resources to have certified belts on staff. Obtain approvals and launch • Get buy-in early! • The process owner is key! • Have an executive sponsor to remove obstacles. The process owner is the individual who has formal authority over the biggest piece of the process being studied. I needed an instructor for the new joint degree program between the engineering school and the management school that I was managing. A good executive sponsor can make a huge difference in how . provide resource support as needed. however. then your chances for success are greatly improved.

We used a very similar slide to this one in that module. called metrology. 30 Outline • Motivation and background • Define •Measure • Analyze • Improve • Control Slide thirty We spent a lot of time on the design phase of the Six Sigma process. Assuming we did. In our teambuilding module. It is very. That's okay because the define phase is probably the most important phase of the Six Sigma process. I have an example from the healthcare field to further illustrate this psychology that I thought you might find interesting. that we will introduce in a later module entitled “Quality Measurement and MIS” Slide thirty-one In our quality management module. it doesn’t get better! • There is a science of measurement.easy or hard it is to make progress on a project. it's not worth doing. We note in the slide in this module that we will be introducing the science of metrology later in the course." . we talked about the prominent role that measurement had played in the quality management process. I was able to get the director of quality management for the Cleveland Clinic to come and visit with my class. very important that we get it right. 31 The Importance of Measurement • "If you can't measure it. Federal Express Corporation • If it doesn’t get measured. we discussed the duties and responsibilities of the executive sponsor. His approach appeared to be very laid back at first glance.Fred Smith. when I first introduced the total quality management course into our curriculum. We also talked about the psychology of measurement in a quality management module. we are now ready to move on to the measure phase. He explained to us that for a particular DRG the clinic would have a . Many years ago. He was a physician at the clinic who had taken on the role of quality director.

the following section of this module will be a simple review. 33 Sample versus Population • Population is all members of a particular group. the before measurements were surprisingly low. I should also mention that for students who have had and remember their basic statistics course. extremely high blood pressure). and statistics.e. They would feed this information back to the caregivers who were involved in the patient care process. This is simply a recommended program of treatment for that particular disease.e. What the director and his staff would do is simply measure the proportion of patients who were receiving the medication if they were supposed to. Obviously. Then they would measure the same variables again. In a number of cases. 32 Measurement and Statistics • Definition of statistics – making sense out of data! • British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli once said: “There are three kinds of lies: lies. So we introduce it here at the measure step since it is very common to use statistical measurements as a part of this process. the example illustrates the power of measurement and feedback. I should note that the definition of statistics shown in this slide is my definition and not that of a Ph. i. and also the proportion of patients receiving it within the proper time frame. the staff is extremely professional so that this gentle feedback process had a profound effect. the after measures showed a dramatic improvement that approached perfection. He reported for whole series of these before and after measures. in a medical environment such as this. all males working at a particular company • Sample is a subset of the population.standard care path. Suppose that patients for a particular DRG that includes a surgical procedure are supposed to receive a particular medication within two hours after the surgery if the patient exhibits a certain marker (for example.” • He probably never got a Six Sigma Black Belt! Slide thirty-two The use of statistics is often an important feature in the measure. all males working as machinists at the company Slide thirty-three . damn lies. analyze. this will be a gentle introduction but you will need to become more knowledgeable in statistics if you expect to be a strong performer in a Six Sigma process. and improve steps in the Six Sigma process.D. Nonetheless. statistician. where the only intervention was to provide a report that summarized the measurements. If you have not had statistics. In every case. i.

We count the number of students and it has to be an integer such as 20 or 34 or some similar number. it could be measured on a somewhat continuous scale. and sex to illustrate statistical measurement and analysis concepts Slide thirty-five Since there were 24 men in the class and only eight women. phenomena that we want to measure may naturally exist as either discrete or continuous data. that is clearly a discrete measure. due to the limitations of our measuring instruments. .9358°. for example. 34 Discrete versus Continuous Data • Discrete data can take on only a limited number of values. Even though we normally quote temperatures on a discrete scale. inches. we will use the data we collected from the class members at a prior client company consisting of their height. but our measuring instrument is a digital instrument that only displays integer values of the temperature. Whenever we can compute a measure based on a sample we call it a statistic. height can be measured in feet. in some of the illustrations that follow we will only use the male portion of our data. If we had fine enough instruments to measure the temperature in our classroom whenever we are meeting. etc. so we might say it's 75° outside today. our measurements are actually discrete. We have to be careful about the manner in which we select a sample or it may not be representative of the population. weight. 35 Teaching by Example • In the slides that follow. The small group is called a sample and the large group is called the population. the number of rooms in a house is discrete • Continuous data refers to things that can be measured as finely as our measuring instruments can go. For statistical purposes. as fine as our measuring instruments can measure it Slide thirty-four For anything that we measure. we call it a population parameter. In reality. for example. it is useful to know whether the data we're working with are discrete or continuous. However.One of the most powerful aspects of statistics is that we can estimate the characteristics of a large group by only measuring those characteristics for a small group. millimeters. If we have the measurements for the entire population and we do a computation. If we want to know how many students are in our class. it may be 74. centimeters.

and the sex variable as discrete. We will treat the height and weight values as being continuous. 37 Descriptive Statistics • Descriptive statistics are used to describe something that we have measured so as to summarize the measurements in some fashion • Two broad categories are: –Measures of central tendency –Measures of dispersion (variation) .36 Slide thirty-six We entered the data from our 32 students into an Excel spreadsheet as shown in this slide. We have coded the discrete variable with a one for a woman and a zero for a man.

and mode. 38 Measures of Central Tendency • Average or mean • Median • Mode Slide thirty-eight Three common descriptive statistics that measure the central tendency from a set of data are the mean.Slide thirty-seven The first thing we will do with our data is compute some simple descriptive statistics that include both measures of central tendency and of dispersion or variation. We will illustrate each in the following slides. and then dividing by the number of numbers Slide thirty-nine The arithmetic mean is the same arithmetic mean that you learned about in elementary school. 39 Average or Mean • The average or mean of a set of numbers is computed by adding all the numbers together. 40 . median.

the median value is just the middle value of a sorted list of numbers. if there is an even number of values in the set Slide forty-one In general. In case there is an even number of values. 41 Median • The median is the middle value in a sorted set of values if there are an odd number of values • It is the average of the two middle values. and have an average weight of 197. 42 .Slide forty The 24 men in our data set average 71.15 inches in height. we average the middle two to determine the median.16 pounds. You can verify these results by adding the values shown in the slide and dividing by 24 in each case since there are 24 males.

43 Mode • The mode is the value in the set of values that occurs most frequently • It is sometimes confusing because there can be multiple modes. we will have to average the middle two to determine the median. we sorted the male data from lowest to greatest height.Male Data Sorted by Height Slide forty-two For our sample data. or no mode in continuous data if every measurement is unique • Not as useful as mean and median Slide forty-three . Since we have 24 values. To do that. The result is a median value of 72 inches. and average them as shown in the slide. we count down to the 12th and 13th values in the list.

It is not considered as useful as the mean or medium. 44 Male Data Sorted by Height Slide forty-four For the male data sorted by height. the modal value is 72 and this value occurs nine times in the data. because there can be multiple modes or no mode at all if every value in the data set is unique.The mode is defined as the value in the data set that occurs the most frequently. 45 Measures of Dispersion or Variation • Range • Mean Absolute Deviation • Standard Deviation .

and then dispenses 18 ounces for the second bottle. The filling operation is so fast that we have two people who take the filled bottles and place them in the case containers. You can see that variation is a serious problem in this example. Now suppose that be pouring operation functions as follows. I think statistics can be practically useful. Sometimes when I am explaining measures of variation to people in companies who do not like statistics. capping the bottles. especially if they keep me from buying a case of odd-numbered bottles. Now you go to your local beverage store to pick up a case of your favorite drink. This pattern of first 6 ounces and then 18 ounces continues so all the odd-numbered bottles have 6 ounces and all the even-numbered bottles are full to the cap. Do you want your case to contain all oddnumbered bottles or even numbered bottles? In terms of the average. Of course. our process is perfect.Slide forty-five We will consider these three simple descriptive statistics for measuring variation in the data. 47 . I asked them to imagine a bottling and packaging operation that is filling 12 ounce longneck bottles with their favorite beverage. and putting them in cases of 24 bottles each for delivery to our local beverage store. So I have come up with a simple example that I share with them to try to illustrate the importance of variation. Each person of the two takes every other bottle. this overflows the second bottle and some of our precious liquid spills out and is lost. they accuse me of just creating confusion that is unnecessary. It is dispensing an average of exactly 12 ounces of beverage per bottle. It dispenses 6 ounces of liquid into the first bottle. No matter what Prime Minister Disraeli thinks. 46 Range • The range is the difference between the largest value and the smallest value in a set of data Slide forty-six The range is the simplest of the three values and is the difference between the largest value and the smallest value in a data set.

Slide forty-seven We again use the male data sorted by height. The largest value is the last value and is 75 inches. 48 Mean Absolute Deviation • The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is computed by first computing the average of the set of values • Next the difference between the average and each value is computed. it is changed to positive • Then the positive differences are added together • Finally. if the difference is negative. So the range is simply the difference between these two or 10 inches. and notice that the smallest value is the first value at 65 inches. the total of the differences is divided by the number of values to get the average Difference .

we began by computing the difference between the mean value and each individual value in the data set.15 inches. 50 . In the column above headed “Plus Difference” we have computed the difference between 71. The higher it is.98. At the bottom of the column. Notice that we have taken the absolute value of each difference so that all the differences are positive values. Then we add up all those differences and divide by the number of differences to obtain the average difference between the mean and the individual values.15 inches and the height of each male in the data set. this does not seem to suggest a great deal of variation in the data.15 inches. the greater is the variation in the data. Compared to the mean value of 71. we have summed the differences and then divided by the number of differences or 24 to obtain the mean absolute deviation value of 1. 49 Slide forty-nine Recall that the average height of the males was 71.Slide forty-eight To compute the mean absolute deviation. Let's look at an example in the next slide.

51 . you start out similarly to the mean absolute deviation • Instead of taking the positive difference between the average and the individual values. but it's easier to follow with an example so we will go on to the next slide. we will learn how to interpret this value later Slide fifty Even if you have had statistics and are familiar with the standard deviation. you compute the squared difference • Then you add all the squared differences. and divide by the number of differences minus 1 • Finally. you take the square root of that result • Don't worry if this doesn't make sense now. you have to wonder how statisticians came up with this value.Standard Deviation • To compute the standard deviation. The process to compute it is described in this slide.

the number of squared differences minus one. we would not conclude that there is not a lot of variation in the data. Notice that we divide this sum by 23. we sum the squared differences in this column to obtain the total of 149. Again. We have only one more operation to do. as shown in the column above that is labeled “Difference Squared.” you'll see that values in our difference squared column in this slide are simply the values from the “Plus Difference” column squared. which is to take the square root of the value we just computed.15 inches. When we compute a statistic such as the standard deviation. we subtract one from the number of values so as to correct for the loss of 1° of freedom. comparing this to the mean value of 71. But then we square each difference. 52 Why Do We Care About The Standard Deviation? . Next.11. This gives us a value of 2.55 inches as the standard deviation of the height of the males in our data set. So first we compute the difference between the average value and each of the individual values.Slide fifty-one We start the process of computing the standard deviation similarly to the process for computing the mean absolute deviation.” If you go back to our mean absolute deviation slide and look at the column labeled “Plus Difference.

we did learn in the bottling example above that variation was important and the standard deviation is a measure of variation.3σ Slide fifty-two So we know how to compute the standard deviation. we can make statements such as those shown in this slide about how the values behave. 54 Correlation • Correlation coefficient measures the degree of relationship between two variables • The range of values for the correlation coefficient is from -1 to +1 • A value of 1 means that the two variables are perfectly.3% of the values should be between +/.7% of the values should be between +/. For such instances. positively correlated • A value of 0 means there is no correlation between the two variables . it will contain 68.one standard deviation or σ – 95. but why should we care? Well. If our data come from a normal probability distribution and we know an estimate of the mean and the standard deviation of the distribution. 53 Exploring Relationships Between Variables • Correlation • Regression Slide fifty-three Sometimes we are interested in exploring the relationship between two or more variables. The ability to make this kind of statement is why we care about the standard deviation. if we measure the area under the curve from minus one standard deviation to the left of the mean or target value to plus one standard deviation to the right of the mean or target value. we can make statistical statements about the variation in the data as follows: – 68. The Greek letter sigma (σ) is generally used in statistics books to represent the standard deviation.3% of the total area under the curve.• If the data come from a normal or bell-shaped curve.2σ – 99. we employ statistical correlation and regression modeling. For the normal distribution that we showed in the chart early in this file.4% of the values should be between +/.

two variables that exhibit perfect negative correlation will have a correlation coefficient of minus one. the second variable decreases. The relationship is said to be a positive relationship if as the first variable increases the second variable also increases. Two variables that exhibit perfect positive correlation will have a correlation coefficient of one.• A value of -1 means that the two variables are perfectly negatively correlated • On computer printouts. we can ask the computer to compute a correlation matrix such as that shown in the slide. 55 Slide fifty-five When we enter a data set that has several variables in it into a statistical software package. Similarly. the correlation coefficient is generally abbreviated with the letter r Slide fifty-four We use a measure called a correlation coefficient to measure the degree of relationship between two variables. Let's look at some sample correlation coefficients for our data. Notice that all three of . The relationship is said to exhibit negative correlation if as the first variable increases.

or strength of relationship between the dependent and independent variables Slide fifty-six Sometimes we would like to be able to estimate a mathematical relationship between two or more variables. The taller a person is. 57 . the more we would expect them to weigh. We call the variable we are trying to predict the dependent variable. If we read the first line of the matrix under the column headed WT. Let's look at a regression model and then I'll tell you about a real application of regression I did some time ago. we compute the correlation coefficient for each variable with itself.454. which results in the perfect 1.613. we see that the correlation between height (HT) and weight (WT) is 0. So the higher the value of the sex variable. So we are going to compute the correlation coefficient for every possible pair of relationships. Reading one column further to the right in the same line. This is a positive correlation. In the process. the shorter the person is likely to be because it is a female. 56 Regression • Regression analysis is used to estimate the mathematical relationship between two or more variables • The goal may be to understand the relationship and/or to predict values of one variable based on the other(s) • The variable we are trying to predict is called the dependent variable • The variables we are using to predict it are called independent variables • The correlation coefficient is used to measure the "goodness" of fit. We are more interested in the values off the diagonal. and the variables that we're using to predict it independent variables.0 positive correlations down the diagonal of the matrix.our variables are listed down the side as well as across the top. we see the correlation between height (HT) and sex (SEX) is a -0. which is what we would expect. such that we could use one or several variables to predict the value for a variable of interest to us. Remember that we coded this variable with zero for a male and one for a female.

knowing only the sex of the person. The value shown as R-Squared (0.15 inches. The interpretation of this adjusted value is that it is the proportion of the variability in the data that is explained by our regression model. So this regression equation makes some sense.Slide fifty-seven In this example. The next value shown is the standard error of the estimate. The value shown just below it as the Adjusted R-Squared corrects the R-Squared value for the size of the sample. such as the height of the parents of each person in our data set. This is the average height for males that we computed earlier. you will see that it's 4. There is some additional information in this slide that the typical statistical software package provides that we need to understand. Notice that if the person is a male. That means about 65% is unexplained and so our model is not a very good model.376174) is the squared value of the correlation coefficient that measures the correlation between the predicted values versus the actual values for height from the equation. we are trying to estimate their height with the regression equation that's shown.5% of the variation in the data. our model explains about 35. If you go back and average the height for women. then the value of the sex variable is zero and we predict that the height will be 71.27 inches shorter than the men. and you can think of it as the standard deviation of the model for the . in order to try to improve our prediction. We probably need to find additional independent variables. In other words.

the cylinder shape was sometimes distorted when the welding was completed. As a result. that was a subsidiary of Harsco Corp. The result of the work we did together with the people at the company resulted in this company making a profit for the first time in six . The two variables that affected the forming process were the length and width of the sheet. The company was having a difficult time accurately estimating the cost of creating these cylinders. These same two variables affected the fitting operation. the first operation was to create a rolled and welded cylinder. We did a number of other projects as a part of our relationship with this company that further contributed to their success. seam welding. Ohio. They were then welded together.55 value for the standard deviation that we computed for males. particularly the labor costs involved in these four processes. they might not be so obvious. They were not sure if they lost jobs that might have been profitable because they overestimated those. possibly because there was not a wide range of thicknesses. the thickness and the length were the two independent variables in the regression equation. We used historical data for a lot of jobs that they had completed to build a regression model for each of the four steps in the process. The reroll operation was once again driven by the length and the width variables. But this regression modeling was an important component of what we did. and re-rolling. I am going to tell you how the models worked and it will appear obvious to you. and they exhibit less variability than the men. Since the welding operation created some stress. So the final step of re-rolling was done to restore the nice cylinder shape before proceeding to additional operations. This looked like a big tin can where the top and the bottom had been removed. the width.predicted values. fitting. He built a bunch of models and then created a bunch of tables so that his coworkers could simply use the length. Regression modeling to the rescue! There were only three independent variables available for the sheet of titanium from which the cylinder would be made. Clearly. the thickness did not seem to matter. width. but if you ask yourself for these answers right now. so they reduce the overall variability. The company was a titanium fabrication shop that manufactured heat exchangers and pressure vessels. The forming process started with a big sheet of titanium of the proper length and width to create the proper sized cylinder. jobs that they bid on and were awarded often resulted in losses rather than profits because they were underestimated. and then we folded the sheet until the two edges met to form the basic cylinder shape. I trained a shop floor employee to build these regression models using the STORM software package. Notice that it is slightly smaller than the 2. This is because the variations in height for the women were included here. I promised an application example of regression. the length. the thicker the metal the slower the welding and the longer the sheet the slower the welding. To make a pressure vessel. There were four steps in this process. The last value in the slide just tells us that all 32 people from our data set were included in these computations. For the welding operation. The models typically explained 95% or more of the variation in the data. and thickness values to enter these tables and read the estimated times for each of the four operations. and the thickness. A number of years ago a graduate student and I were working on a project for a company called Astro Metallurgical in Wooster. The fitting process very carefully lined the edges up and clamped them together in a few places to keep them aligned. forming.

59 . It is important to distinguish between short-term and long-term variation. In fact.years. we can share with you that a major objective of the Six Sigma process is to minimize variation. The nice thing was that it was a sizable profit. So I guess our equation in this case was regression equals profit! 58 Six Sigma is about Minimizing Variation • Short-term variation • Long-term variation Slide fifty-eight Now that you understand statistical variation. you could say that we are often obsessed with minimizing variation in processes. since short-term variation is much more difficult to reduce than long-term variation.

We can use the concepts of short-term and long-term variation to sharpen our understanding of entitlement. If we were to compute the standard deviation of the yield for 2004 alone or for 2005 alone. we have plotted the yield per hour from a process during calendar years 2004 and 2005. the entitlement value equals the best observed short-term variation in the process. We implemented improvements to the process at the end of 2004 during the year end shutdown. So we normally attack long-term variation first. For process variation. We will study more about assignable or special clauses when we study statistical process control later in the course. normally revolutionary discoveries are needed Slide sixty We introduced the concept of entitlement during the define step of the Six Sigma process. If we accept the entitlement value as our objective for the process.and Long-Term Variation • Entitlement = Best observed SHORT-TERM variation • Forces that cause long-term variation are often called “assignable causes” or “special causes” • We normally try to reduce long-term variation first because it’s easier! • Forces that cause short-term variation are often called “random causes” or “common causes” • It is much harder to reduce this type of variation in a process. it would be higher than either year alone. You can see that our yield per hour jumped from around 4000 pounds in 2004 to over 5000 pounds in 2005. we will just say that it is easier to reduce long-term variation created by assignable or special clauses than it is to reduce short-term variation of the entitlement variety. 60 Short.Slide fifty-nine In the graph in this slide. the values would be pretty similar. If we computed the value for both years combined. 61 Short. then we would seek to maintain the process at this value into the indefinite future.and Long-Term Variation • We use measures of variation to determine process capability for a process – Short-term variation is used to estimate shortterm process capability – Long-term variation is used to estimate longterm process capability . For now.

we will learn exactly how to compute those in the statistical process control module later in the course. 62 Outline • Motivation and background • Define • Measure • Analyze • Improve • Control Slide sixty-two We are now ready to consider the analyze phase of a Six Sigma project. the measure and analyze phase may overlap at times.• Process capability indices are all based on some ratio of tolerance specifications divided by the process width (variation) Slide sixty-one Six Sigma practitioners often talk about the concept of process capability. We introduced quite a few statistics in the measure phase because the statistics may be needed during that phase. We use values of both shortterm and long-term variation to compute various process capability indices of interest. We point out however. In that sense. Again. 63 Objective of Analyze Phase • We seek to develop a deep understanding of the process behavior based on facts and data and their analysis • We want to understand how the x’s in the original Six Sigma function affect the y’s that are of interest in our project • At the end of this phase we should be able to suggest changes to the process that we expect to improve its performance Slide sixty-three . that many of those same statistics will provide the foundation for the analyze phase.

we use the teambuilding process constantly in managing our Six Sigma team and facilitating its work. I often talk about the first phase of the project as being the saturation phase. Even though they’re simple. but it may nonetheless be a very valuable output from the analyze phase and the phases that preceded it. and concepts do we use during the analyze phase of a Six Sigma project? In addition to the statistical analysis of any data available to us.When I do applied projects for companies. for example – For business processes. techniques. the team may have developed its own theory of how the process works that fills in some blanks that the data did not provide. We may have to test this theory later. they can be very powerful. The team should understand the process as well as or better than anyone on the planet when they have finished the analyze phase. they should be in a great position to propose how to change it so as to improve it in a significant way. even though they are simpler than some of our sophisticated statistics. The analyze phase of the Six Sigma project represents a similar saturation for the Six Sigma project team. In addition to the data and its analysis. The reason for that is that I am trying to saturate myself with the problem that the company has so I understand it as well as the company personnel understand it. We may use any of the seven basic tools of quality. With a deep understanding of the process. this can be based on chemistry and/or physics. flow charts may show this Slide sixty-four What tools. 65 Quality Processes We May Use to Analyze • Cost of poor quality • Methods engineering and reengineering . 64 What We Use to Analyze • Team building process • The 7 tools of quality • Measurements from the process • Statistical analysis of the measurements • The team’s theory of the process – For physical processes.

67 Experimentation and Improvement • Up to now. and in fact may be integrated into earlier steps of the Six Sigma process as well. even though a lot of new knowledge may have been gained • In this phase. We will introduce all of them but quality auditing in later modules. no tangible benefit has accrued to the company. We have listed several of those in this slide but will not elaborate on them here. I can point you to a very good reference for that subject.• Benchmarking • Quality auditing • Vendor relationships • Quality function deployment Slide sixty-five There are additional quality processes that may be used as a part of the analyze phase. the theory of the process that has been developed by the team and the ideas for improving the process are put to work • This could also be called “implementation” . If anyone is interested in quality auditing. the improve step is the next to the last step in the process. 66 Outline • Motivation and background • Define • Measure • Analyze • Improve • Control Slide sixty-six We are gaining on it.

It is much easier to correct mistakes in the factory design in a computer simulation model than it is after we have put bricks and mortar together in a building. two graduate students from my Department. and the wholistic approach of design of experiments. At this point in the Six Sigma process. we try to imitate the behavior of the real world system with a computer model so that we can test changes in the computer before we risk them in the real world process • We still may try to experiment with the changes via a simulation model in either an incremental or a wholistic manner Slide sixty-nine Computer simulation modeling involves building a computer model to imitate the behavior of a real world system over some extended period of time. incremental approaches. 69 Experimentation and Improvement • In simulation. Kamlesh Mathur. Notice that the company does not enjoy any benefit of any kind until the implementation takes place and starts to produce results. the Department Chair for Operations. the simulated behavior should be a good estimate of the real world system behavior if we were to make the . For example. To the extent that the computer simulation model captures the essence of the real world system. Planning and decision-making are fun parts about being a professional in a company. but never forget that the only thing the company takes to the bank is implementation. we want to start experimenting with our ideas for improvement to determine if we can put them in the bank! 68 Experimentation and Improvement • The only way to find out if the suggested changes will work is to try them in some fashion • Simulation • Incremental • Wholistic Slide sixty-eight There are three broad categories of ways to test our theories about the process and our ideas for improving it. we said that the team should have ideas about how to improve the process. We will discuss simulation. and I are currently building such a manufacturing simulator for a fuel-cell company that is planning to build a factory in Ohio in the near future. we could simulate the flow of orders through a factory before we ever built the factory. Dr.At this point.

So let me caution you that the two to three weeks we will spend this semester on design of experiments will not . this will likely be a disaster and the company will be experimenting permanently – One-factor-at-a-time – this may be useful if there are a limited number of factors and the team feels they have a very strong knowledge of the relationships among the factors and the outcome. We sometimes set up a pilot operation to test our solution with a limited test. 71 Experimentation and Improvement • Wholistic Approaches – Design of Experiments (DOE) – in this approach. incremental approaches may simply not be up to the task. In addition to computer simulation. and the different levels at which they are set Slide seventy-one Some Ph.D. Whenever the problems being addressed are manageable enough. and by the fact that a formal design of experiments might be needed to address this problem. this can take a long time and lead to erroneous conclusions Slide seventy Simple incremental approaches for experimentation and improvement are used more often in industry than any other approach. but you may be surprised at its complexity. we should also recognize physical simulations here. programs in statistics offer a two semester sequence in design of experiments. if the problem being studied is of significant complexity. Simulation models would typically be used for fairly large-scale projects where it would be very expensive to run physical experiments on the system. this can work out to be acceptable. a carefully designed set of experiments are run on the process that help prove conclusively how it behaves as a result of different factors that may be controlled.same changes to the real world system that we made in the simulation model. However. You may be familiar with flight simulators that all are used for training pilots. otherwise. 70 Experimentation and Improvement • Incremental Approaches – Trial and error – if the process is at all complex. We are going to introduce an example below that I think you will agree seems like a fairly simple problem. and then if the pilot is successful we scale up for the full implementation. This is similar to test marketing a new product in a limited geographic area. We have a company in Cleveland in the medical area that builds simulators to train surgeons for specific types of surgery.

another factor could be how long do we mix the ingredients? Even before we mix them. We still have to consider at what temperature to bake the cake. a square pan. for how long. 72 Design of Experiments • Select the factors (x’s) from the team’s knowledge of the process • Select the factor levels • Randomize the experiments to protect against unknown nuisance factors • Block to safeguard against known nuisance factors • Run the experiments and gather the data Slide seventy-two To introduce the concept of design of experiments. but does it so well that we make a lot of money! What are some of the factors to be considered in baking a cake? The amount of each ingredient provides a fairly obvious set of factors. what type of baking container do we use? Do we use a round pan. or glass? Are you starting to get a headache? Don't. The spreadsheet below shows how many cakes we’d have to bake and taste in order to decide on the best plan if we try every combination. What we hope it will do is introduce you to the language of design of experiments and help you develop an ability to recognize a situation that demands a design of experiments approach. and butter. milk. If we can solve this problem. and to be able to participate with a team to carry it out. ten times each! . a factor could be the order in which we put them in a mixing bowl. They might include items such as flour. because we're not done yet. Assuming that we are using an electric mixer. Let’s suppose that we took three levels for each factor listed above (we could easily try more levels for several of the factors. eggs. so it is easier to blend the dry ingredients with them? Once the batter is mixed. then we would typically bake maybe 10 cakes using that set of factors in order to make sure we were getting some uniformity in the results. but let’s keep it simple). and whether to bake it on the top rack or the bottom rack of the oven.make you an expert. If we took a particular value for each of the factors listed above. or a rectangular pan? Should the container be made out of metal. let's consider a simple case in which we would like to develop a recipe and baking procedures to bake the best cake ever. we can open a bakery that just bakes this one product. We will measure best by having a panel of expert tasters whose ratings will be averaged. sugar. Do we put the moist ingredients in first.

This might vary from day to day. We may know some nuisance factors and we may take steps to prevent them from impacting the results. we will learn that through a careful design of experiments that we can get most of the information we would get from running all these experiments by running only a small fraction of them. and even from hour to hour within a day. and three eggs. we would not run the experiments in an orderly fashion by cycling from one to two to three and back to one egg. we hope to neutralize the impact of any nuisance factors on the results. and the three levels for eggs were one egg. That is the power of design of experiments. or Cleveland Cavaliers are on TV. we should not schedule any of the baking experiments whenever the Cleveland Indians. For example.147 experiments listed above.If I was asked to do all this before I can open my bakery and start selling anything. One such factor might be the humidity in the kitchen. if Dale Flowers is the baker. we would collect the taste ratings from our panel of experts for all the different trials that we made. By randomizing the experiments. we would randomize the experiments so as to protect against unknown nuisance factors. If we were to run the 177. Instead. we would run the experiments and collect data on the results. For our cake making experiments. Cleveland Browns. two eggs. Assuming that we have carefully completed the design of our experiments using the efficient techniques we will study later in the semester. 73 Design of Experiments • Analyze the data using appropriate statistical methods (ANOVA – analysis of variance is often useful) • Analyze the MAIN effects to determine how much each factor impacts the results • Analyze the INTERACTION effects to determine how much each of them impacts the results Slide seventy-three . I would very likely be broke and overweight before I ever started my business! Later in the semester.

then it probably means that there were some confounding or nuisance factors that we did not control for that affected our results. If the three levels that we tried for butter were one half stick. This experiment is called a confirming experiment. however.Once we have the results. So you can see that even though we're in the improve step of the Six Sigma process. If for some reason it is not judged as the best. continue on. From the results of these experiments. This is bad news. So whatever our analysis told us was the best combination. 74 Design of Experiments • From your analysis. 75 Outline • Motivation and background • Define • Measure • Analyze . we have to apply the appropriate statistical methods to analyze the results. There may be an interaction effect between milk and butter. Suppose that the best combination includes a full stick of butter and 2 cups of flour. We hope this doesn't happen too often. it’s back to the drawing board for additional analysis and experiments! Slide seventy-four I mentioned above that an efficient design of experiments may cause us to run only a tiny fraction of all possible trials. and a full stick of butter. then we need to do so to confirm that our experts agree that this yields the best tasting cake. if we did not run that experiment in our original set of experiments. then our experts will agree that this is the best cake we found. estimate the optimal factor settings for the process and its resulting performance • Run a confirming experiment to see if the optimal performance is achieved • If yes. Notice. It is very possible that we did not bake a single cake in our experiments that contained one full stick of butter and 2 cups of flour. we will be able to estimate the best combination of factor levels to create the best tasting cake. three fourths of a stick. So the boundaries between the steps in Six Sigma projects are not necessarily neat and tidy. since it means we have to go back to the drawing board and figure out what to do. It is possible to study such effects and to allow for their estimation. we are still doing analysis as a part of our experiments. The analysis of the results will help us determine the main effects and the interaction effects of our different factors. otherwise. If all goes well. that milk is another ingredient that is also a dairy product. then we can perform a statistical analysis to estimate the main effect of butter on the taste of the cake.

graphs. Once we have figured out how to improve the process. and actions to be taken if the process goes out of control Slide seventy-seven The simplest way to explain what the process control plan does is to say that it explains exactly what to do to the x’s in the process in order to achieve our desired y. 77 Process Control Plan • Focuses on the x’s and what we know about them • Administrative section provides key information including the process owner • Operational definition of the control plan • What is being controlled • Requirements and current performance levels • Method of control. and other documentation that the team prepared following our team building guidelines will prove invaluable in writing this summary. The minutes. charts.• Improve • Control Slide seventy-five We are in the home stretch. If you are familiar with computer programming. reports. The plan instructs the people implementing the process on what to do when different situations arise in . 76 Process Management Summary • Basically summarizes everything the team has learned about what makes the process tick • Identifies all the “critical-to-quality” factors including how they impact on the process • Becomes the primary documentation of the process Slide seventy-six Our team should write a process management summary that contains all their important findings. it has lots of “if … then” statements. We may have a lot of those in our documentation. we want to make sure that our organization implements our results in precisely the right manner so that benefits will accrue for a long time into the future. The summary identifies all the critical to quality (CTQ) factors and explains how they impact the process.

I can use cassette players in cars as an example of this technique. If you look at a cassette. The Japanese call this PokaYoke. For those of you who remember cassette tapes as a way to play music in your car. This is what we mean by foolproofing. It is critically important to develop a great process control plan. and the side of the contoured opening that was larger is where the bottom had to go. a statistical process control chart will be utilized by the process and the design of this chart will be a part of the control plan. they created a contoured opening such that you put the end of the tape in first. However. remember. implementation. The team should spend some time trying to figure out how to implement the process control plan in the most foolproof way they can. they created one large rectangular opening into which you were to place the cassette. The correct way to load the cassette into the United States vehicle was to put the bottom end into the rectangular opening first and push the cassette on in. In their vehicles with cassette players. in which case we got no music. So SPC is often a component of a control plan. the benefit that the organization receives is going to come from implementing the process control plan. So there was only one way you could insert the tape into the opening. When United States car manufacturers introduced auto cassette players. The Japanese had a better idea. We will be studying SPC a little later in the course.order to have the process perform at its best. there was nothing to prevent those of us who are technologically challenged from putting the top in first. you will notice that the plastic container is only open on one surface of the cassette and you can see the tape through that opening. let's call that surface the bottom. There's that word again. 79 Repeat! • Motivation and background • Define • Measure • Analyze • Improve • Control . 78 Process Control Plan • This step is heavily based on statistical process control that we included in the 7 tools of quality • Additional concepts used in this step are Poka-Yoke or fool-proofing the process Slide seventy-eight In many instances.

. there's always another one waiting so that you can further improve your organization's operations.Slide seventy-nine I bet you thought we'd never get here. Describe aspects of the project that would have been different if you had followed the Six Sigma process. This is what we mean by continuous improvement. I'll bet that you now realize that you already knew a lot of the elements of it. You now have an introduction to the complete Six Sigma process. stayed the same. Once you've successfully completed a Six Sigma project. and doing it relentlessly is a hallmark of many of our great companies today. and now you know how it all fits together. I hope this module has demystified this thing that we call Six Sigma for you. and then think about how you think they would have done it if they used a Six Sigma process. even if the team didn’t call it that. You should also include all the team building concepts from that module into your analysis of your previous project. Describe aspects of the project for which you think the team used Six Sigma concepts. Think about how your group did it. or gotten worse if your team had used the Six Sigma approach. Think about some important work or school project that you had to do as a part of a team or group. Here’s an exercise that I would like for you to do. Then tell us if you think the project performance would have improved.

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