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YouGov WriteUp, 10.18.11

YouGov WriteUp, 10.18.11

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Published by: ellisonreport on Oct 23, 2011
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THE RISE OF HERMAN CAIN: GOP VOTERS GIVE HIM A DOUBLE-DIGIT LEAD OVER ROMNEY

This week’s Economist/YouGov Poll results provide no doubt who the GOP favorite is: businessman Herman Cain has a double-digit lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. And now Cain’s popularity with registered voters who say they will vote in a Republican primary or caucus next year is not only because of his support from those GOP voters who identify with the Tea Party.

If you had to choose one, which of these individuals would you want to be the Republican nominee for president in 2012?
Registered voters who are likely to vote in Republican primary or caucus All Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Michele Bachmann Jon Huntsman Ron Paul Herman Cain Rick Santorum Rick Perry Gary Johnson Other No preference 21% 11% 4% 3% 10% 31% 3% 8% 0% 5% 6% Tea Party followers 19% 11% 2% 0% 10% 38% 4% 8% 1% 3% 4% Non-Tea Party followers 22% 10% 6% 6% 9% 24% 2% 7% 0% 6% 8%

Cain leads Romney 31% to 21% among all Republican voters, and by 38% to 19% among Tea Partiers (who make up nearly half of all Republican voters). He and Romney are co-frontrunners with the 56% of Republican voters who do not identify with that group. 24% of non-Tea Party GOP voters favor Cain, 22% Romney. As for the rest of the field, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas Congressman Ron Paul and Texas Governor Rick Perry have the support of about one in ten GOP voters. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, once a favorite, has dropped to only 4% support. Cain may yet have a long way to go to reach Democratic and independent voters. But Republican voters see him as caring, sharing their values, tough and capable
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enough to do the job. In fact, he does better than Romney does with Republican voters when it comes to caring about them, and sharing their values.

Please tell us whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about these Republican presidential candidates.
Displaying percent who agree only
(Registered voters who are likely to vote in Republican primary or caucus) 63% 50% Herman Cain Mitt Romney

He cares about people like me.

He shares my values.

65% 48%

He understands complex issues.

63% 68%

He is tough enough for the job of president.

68% 68%

But among the public overall, both Cain and Romney are seen mostly negatively. However, Americans are more likely to see both Republicans as tough enough to handle the job. Romney scores better than Cain with the public overall when it comes to understanding the complex problems a President must face, and having the overall qualifications to be a good president. Romney is seen as more electable that Cain is. By 40% to 27%, Americans think the President would defeat Cain. They see a Romney-Obama matchup as more competitive. But both men would now give President Barack Obama a very close contest if next November’s election were being held today. When registered voters are asked who they would support today, Obama leads Romney by just four points, and Cain by just three.

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If the 2012 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and the following Republican candidate, would you vote for Barack Obama or the Republican candidate?
(Registered voters only)
Barack Obama Republican Candidate Other Not sure

45% 41%

45% 42%

8%

6%

6%

7%

Mitt Romney

Herman Cain

WHAT’S 9-9-9?: MOST HAVE HEARD OF IT, BUT AMERICANS OPPOSE CAIN’S PLAN 35% TO 24%
Businessman Herman Cain’s top economic proposal is his 9-9-9 tax plan: a 9% federal business tax, a 9% federal payroll tax and a 9% sales tax. Two out of three respondents in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll have heard of this plan — and — more importantly – so have 84% of Republican primary voters. GOP voters and the public overall hold very different opinions of 9-9-9: Republican voters are twice as likely to favor as oppose it, while the public is negative. However, many people aren’t sure quite what to think of it.

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Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain has proposed replacing the current U.S. tax code with a 9 percent federal business tax, a 9 percent federal payroll tax, and a 9 percent federal sales tax. Do you favor or oppose this proposal?
Favor Neither favor, nor oppose Oppose Not sure

50%

35% 24% 15% 26% 21% 13% 16%

All respondents

Republican primary voters

Republican voters are especially concerned about taxes. Nearly half of them say they pay more than their fair share of taxes, something just a third of Democratic voters say. Democratic voters are more likely to believe they pay their fair share of taxes.

Do you feel you pay more than your fair share in federal income taxes, less than your fair share, or is the amount you pay about right?
More than fair share About right Less than fair share I don't file taxes

54%

46%

45%

33%

9% 6% 3% Republican primary voters 4% Democratic primary voters

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And Republican voters are much more likely to think that the tax burden falls too heavily on wealthier Americans. Nearly a third of them say the wealthy pay more than their fair share of taxes. That’s not because GOP voters think of themselves as wealthy: only 2% of Republican voters describe themselves that way.

AMERICANS LIKE OBAMA’S JOBS PROPOSALS: BUT ONLY 32% THINK HIS PLAN WILL CREATE MANY JOBS
The components of President Barack Obama’s jobs plan meet with general approval — and there even is bi-partisan support for some of the ideas — at least until the public is told that the plan is Obama’s. But there remains skepticism in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll that the President’s proposals will create a significant number of new jobs. Only 32% believe the President’s jobs plan will create a significant number of new jobs; 39% say it won’t. And when Americans look backwards, many don’t see the 2009 stimulus package as having helped the economy. Only one in four say it did; a majority believes it either had no effect or hurt the economy.

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The measures just described are a part of President Obama's jobs plan. Taken together, do you think it would create a substantial number of new jobs in the U.S. or not?

Would create a substantial number of new jobs

32%

Would not create a substantial number of new jobs

39%

Not sure

29%

In February 2009, Congress passed President Obama's $787 billion economic stimulus bill. Overall, do you think that the 2009 stimulus bill helped or hurt the economy?
35%

25% 23%

16%

Helped

No effect

Hurt

Not sure

The public supports several aspects of the current jobs plan, however. They want spending — for highways and transit, for school construction, for hiring teachers, police and firefighters. They would give tax credits to businesses for hiring the longterm unemployed, and for hiring disabled military veterans. Smaller pluralities would extend unemployment benefits and extend the Social Security tax cut for
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workers. Nearly half favor raising revenues with a 5.6% tax hike for those whose incomes exceed $1 million.

Do you favor or oppose the following measures to stimulate the economy and create jobs? (Asked of half of respondents)
Favor Extending and expanding the Social Security payroll tax cut for workers Reducing the Social Security taxes paid by businesses on the first $5 million in wages paid in 2012 Funding highways, transit, rail and aviation improvements Funding school construction Extending unemployment benefits Offering tax credits for businesses that hire the long-term unemployed Providing aid to local governments to save and create jobs for teachers, police and firefighters Funding job creation measures through a 5.6% surtax on annual incomes over $1 million Offering tax credits for businesses hiring military veterans with service-related disabilities who have been unemployed more than six months Extending tax provisions allowing companies to more quickly write off the cost of new equipment 41% Oppose 22% Not sure 37%

24% 52% 48% 41% 54%

40% 21% 27% 32% 20%

35% 26% 24% 24% 24%

52% 49%

26% 27%

20% 22%

63% 41%

13% 22%

24% 37%

Half the sample was asked for their opinion on these items without being told that they were part of the President’s jobs bill. The other half was told these were pieces of the President’s bill. Overall support did not change much, but on some items where the support came from did. For example, a majority of Republicans favored extending tax provisions allowing businesses to write off the cost of new equipment more quickly in principle; GOP support was ten points lower among the half sample told this was what the President’s plan did. At the same time, Democratic support rose 12 points.
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MAIN STREET SEES OCCUPY WALL STREET FAVORABLY — OWS FARES BETTER THAN THE TEA PARTY
The Occupy Wall Street movement continues to gather attention — and increasingly positive assessments from the public. In this week’s Economist/YouGov Poll 31% say they have heard a great deal about OWS, up ten points in one week. More than eight in ten have heard something, nearly as many as those who have heard something about the more than one year old Tea Party movement.

How much have you heard or read about the protest movement known as the Occupy Wall Street movement?
A great deal A fair amount Not much Nothing at all

34% 31% 31%

21%

22%

23% 19% 18%

October 8−11, 2011

October 15−18, 2011

More important, Americans seem to like the Occupy Wall Street movement. By 43% to 30%, they support its goals. Even among those with incomes above $100,000, more say they support the movement’s goals than oppose them. OWS fares much better in public esteem than does the Tea Party. Opinion of the Tea Party is slightly more negative than positive.

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Generally speaking, do you support or oppose the goals of...
(Asked if respondent is aware of these movements)

Support Neither support, nor oppose Oppose Not sure

43% 39% 35% 30%

15% 11%

16% 11%

The Tea Party movement

The Occupy Wall Street movement

Occupy Wall Street identifiers are from all age groups and all educational and income levels. They are more likely to be Democrats, and — unlike the public overall – they are hopeful about government spending and the President’s jobs bills. By more than three to one, they favor government spending to create jobs and stimulate the economy. By more than two to one, they believe the President’s jobs bill would create a significant number of new jobs. In addition, OWS identifiers are engaged in the 2012 election. Just as many OWS identifiers as Tea Partiers claim to be paying very close attention to the campaign, making both groups far more attentive than the public overall.

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How closely have you been following news about the 2012 presidential election campaign?
Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely Not at all

48% 40% 33% 27% 24% 16% 11%

47%

33%

16%

4% 0%

All respondents

Tea Party followers

Occupy Wall Street followers

HARD TIMES: 72% SAY COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONG TRACK, PRESIDENT AND CONGRESS AT OR NEAR RECORD LOWS IN APPROVAL
These are not good times for Americans. Americans overwhelmingly think things are off on the wrong track, and that concern also is bringing down their opinion of the person in charge — President Barack Obama. The President’s approval ratings is just one point above the lowest ever recorded for him in Economist/YouGov Polls. Just 38% approve of his handling of his job, while 53% disapprove.

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"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?" 70

Obama Approval

Disapprove: 53% 60

Percent of Respondents

q

40

50

q

30

Approve: 38%

10

20

2009

2010

2011

There are other low marks for the President this week. Just 43% believe that he mostly says what he really believes; 57% - close to the highest figure ever — think he panders and says mostly what he thinks people want to hear. Overall judgments of how things are going in the country are at a record low. 72% believe things are seriously off on the wrong track, near the highest level in the Obama Presidency.

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Direction of Country
80 "Would you say things in this country today are generally headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track?"
q

Percent of Respondents

60

70

Wrong: 72%

40

50

Right: 14%

20

30

q

10

2009

2010

2011

As for Congress, its approval rating this week ties its all-tie low in this poll. Only 7% approve of how Congress is handling its job. Republicans feel only marginally better: 16% of them approve. Just 4% of independents do. 77% of independents disapprove.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the United States Congress is handling its job?" 80

Congress Approval

70

q

Percent of Respondents

50

60

Disapprove: 68%

20

30

40

Approve: 7%
q

0

10

2009

2010

2011

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