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CuanLlLaLlve MeLhods 2010

4
racLlce roblems Cn robablllLy ulsLrlbuLlons
1 CM 2010 klngsLon
roblem 1
AdverLlslng Campalgn
W Cgllvy and MaLher dld a sLudy of Lhe adverLlslng
campalgns Lhey have conducLed for harma
cllenLs 1he campalgn budgeLs ln Lhe prevlous
year have had a mean of 8s 83 lakhs and a
sLandard devlaLlon of 8s 4 lakhs
uraw a rough skeLch LhaL represenLs Lhe quesLlons
below and flnd Lhe requlred probablllLles
WhaL ls Lhe probablllLy LhaL Lhls year a campalgn wlll
have a budgeL greaLer Lhan 8s90 L?
WhaL ls Lhe probablllLy LhaL a campalgn wlll have a
budgeL less Lhan 8s73 lakhs?
2 CM 2010 klngsLon
keLch lor roblem 1
3
0
Z ?
o 1
83
x 90
o 4
Area
requlred
ame area
CM 2010 klngsLon
oluLlon Lo roblem 1
W LeL b campalgn budgeL
W 8equlred probablllLy ls b 8s 90 L
W 1haL ls z (90 L 83 L)/4 L
W 1haL ls z 123 1 z 123
W lrom Lable z 123 03 + 03944 08944
W 8equlred probablllLy 1 08944 01036 or 106
W CLher requlred probablllLy ls b 8s73L
W 1haL ls z 73 83)/4
W 1haL ls z 23 z +23
W lrom Lable z +23 03 04938 00062 or
062
4 CM 2010 klngsLon
roblem 2
ubscrlpLlon 1o new lssues
W ln Lhe boom year of 20072008 new lssues of
lnfrasLrucLure companles were on Lhe average
oversubscrlbed by a facLor of 37 wlLh a
sLandard devlaLlon of 13
W uraw a rough skeLch LhaL represenLs Lhe
quesLlon below
W WhaL ls Lhe probablllLy LhaL a new offerlng of
LhaL perlod was undersubscrlbed?
3 CM 2010 klngsLon
keLch for roblem 2
6
0 Z 18
o 1
Area 339
37 x 1
o 13
Area 339
CM 2010 klngsLon
oluLlon Lo roblem 2
W LeL x (appllcaLlon money recelved /
auLhorlzed caplLal)
W 8equlred probablllLy ls x 1
W 1haL ls z (1 37)/13
W 1haL ls z 18
W z 18 z + 18
W uslng Lable z + 18 03 04641
00339 or 339
7 CM 2010 klngsLon
roblem 3
upply Chaln uellverles
W Mahlndra and Mahlndra dellvers LracLors Lo lLs
dlsLrlbuLor ln un[ab on average 14 days afLer
dlspaLch from lLs planL ln kandlvll wlLh a
varlance of 1369 days
2

W WhaL ls Lhe probablllLy LhaL a shlpmenL wlll be


dellvered afLer 21 days?
8 CM 2010 klngsLon
oluLlon Lo roblem 3
W LeL d no of days for dellvery
W 8equlred probablllLy ls d 21
W 1haL ls z (21 14)/37
W 1haL ls z 189
W uslng Lable z 189 03 04706
00294 or 294
9 CM 2010 klngsLon
racLlce roblem 4
W 8ecords aL 1aLa MoLors show LhaL 2 of wlper
moLors have been defecLlve A sample of 10
wlper moLors are now Lo be lnspecLed for
defecLs WlLhouL uslng Lables compuLe Lhe
probablllLy LhaL more Lhan 2 moLors wlll be
found defecLlve?
10 CM 2010 klngsLon
oluLlon 1o roblem 4
W 1hls ls a problem ln 8lnomlal robablllLles
because Lhere are only 2 posslblllLles wlper
blade ls elLher defecLlve or noL defecLlve
W ln 8lnomlal ulsL Lerms n 10 p 02 and we
wanL defecLlves 2/10
2/10 3/10 + 4/10 + 10/10
3/10 10!/3!7!002
3
*098
7
00008 CLher
probablllLles are even smaller
AlLernaLlvely go Lo lA1 book p 3 n 10 8 3 and
column 02 llnd 3/10 0008
11 CM 2010 klngsLon
racLlce roblem 3
W ln prevlous problem whaL ls Lhe probablllLy
LhaL none are defecLlve
12 CM 2010 klngsLon
oluLlon 1o roblem 3
W 0/10 10! 002
0
*098
10

0!10!
098
10
08171
W AlLernaLlvely lA1 book p 3 n 10 8
0 and column 02 llnd 0/10 8171
13 CM 2010 klngsLon
racLlce roblem 6
W ollce have esLabllshed LhaL among Lhe
mawalls drlvlng moLorcycles on kheranl 8oad
30 are llkely Lo nC1 have llcense WhaL ls Lhe
probablllLy LhaL ouL of 13 blkers sLopped aL
random 8 wlll noL have llcense?
14 CM 2010 klngsLon
oluLlon Lo roblem 6
W 1hls ls a 8lnomlal slLuaLlon wlLh n 13 p 3
and we wanL 8/13
W 8/13 13!/(8!7!)(03)
8
(07)
7
00348
W AlLernaLlvely lA1 book p 9 n 13 r 8
column 03 flnd 8/13 00348
13 CM 2010 klngsLon
racLlce roblem 7
W ln prevlous problem whaL ls Lhe probablllLy
LhaL 8 or more blkers do noL have llcense?
16 CM 2010 klngsLon
oluLlon 1o roblem 7
W We need Lo add probablllLles for 8 9 13
W lrom lA1 Lable
8 00348
9 00116
10 00030
11 00006
12 00001
13 00000
00301
17 CM 2010 klngsLon
racLlce roblem 8
W ln prevlous problem whaL ls Lhe probablllLy
LhaL aL leasL 1 blker wlll be wlLhouL llcense?
18 CM 2010 klngsLon
oluLlon Lo roblem 8
W aL leasL 1 1 + 2 + 13
1 0 wlLhouL llcense
1 00047
09933
19 CM 2010 klngsLon
racLlce roblem 9
W AL Mulund ocLrolnaka vehlcles arrlve aL an
average of 42 per mlnuLe WhaL are Lhe
followlng probablllLles
2 arrlvals per mlnuLe
3 arrlvals per mlnuLe)
20 CM 2010 klngsLon
oluLlon 1o roblem 9
W 1hls ls a olsson problem because lL ls an
arrlvals slLuaLlon and noLhlng oLher Lhan
average raLe ls menLloned
W o 42 and we wanL
2 0 + 1 + 2 00130 + 00630 +
01323 02103 lA1 book p 16
3 1 4 04101
21 CM 2010 klngsLon
nd Cf esslon Cn
racLlce roblems Cn ulsLrlbuLlons
22 CM 2010 klngsLon