Climate Change Reconsidered

Lead Authors
Craig Idso (USA), S. Fred Singer (USA)

Contributors and Reviewers
Warren Anderson (USA), J. Scott Armstrong (USA), Dennis Avery (USA), Franco Battaglia (Italy), Robert Carter (Australia), Piers Corbyn (UK), Richard Courtney (UK), Joseph d’Aleo (USA), Don Easterbrook (USA), Fred Goldberg (Sweden), Vincent Gray (New Zealand), William Gray (USA), Kesten Green (Australia), Kenneth Haapala (USA), David Hagen (USA), Klaus Heiss (Austria), Zbigniew Jaworowski (Poland), Olavi Karner (Estonia), Richard Alan Keen (USA), Madhav Khandekar (Canada), William Kininmonth (Australia), Hans Labohm (Netherlands), Anthony Lupo (USA), Howard Maccabee (USA), H. Michael Mogil (USA), Christopher Monckton (UK), Lubos Motl (Czech Republic), Stephen Murgatroyd (Canada), Nicola Scafetta (USA), Harrison Schmitt (USA), Tom Segalstad (Norway), George Taylor (USA), Dick Thoenes (Netherlands), Anton Uriarte (Spain), Gerd Weber (Germany)

Joseph L. Bast (USA), Diane Carol Bast (USA)

2009 Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)
Published for the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)

  Climate Change Reconsidered
8 2009, Science and Environmental Policy Project and Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change Published by THE HEARTLAND INSTITUTE 19 South LaSalle Street #903 Chicago, Illinois 60603 U.S.A. phone +1 (312) 377-4000 fax +1 (312) 377-5000 All rights reserved, including the right to reproduce this book or portions thereof in any form. Opinions expressed are solely those of the authors. Nothing in this report should be construed as reflecting the views of the Science and Environmental Policy Project, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, or The Heartland Institute, or as an attempt to influence pending legislation. Additional copies of this book are available from the Science and Environmental Policy Project, The Heartland Institute, and Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change at the following prices: 1-10 copies 11-50 copies 51-100 copies 101 or more $154 per copy $123 per copy $98 per copy $79 per copy

Please use the following citation for this report: Craig Idso and S. Fred Singer, Climate Change Reconsidered: 2009 Report of the Nongovernmental Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Chicago, IL: The Heartland Institute, 2009. Printed in the United States of America ISBN-13 – 978-1-934791-28-8 ISBN-10 – 1-934791-28-8 June 2009



  Before facing major surgery, wouldn’t you want a second opinion? When a nation faces an important decision that risks its economic future, or perhaps the fate of the ecology, it should do the same. It is a time-honored tradition in science to set up a “Team B,” which examines the same original evidence but may reach a different conclusion. The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) was set up to examine the same climate data used by the United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In 2007, the IPCC released to the public its threevolume Fourth Assessment Report titled Climate Change 2007 (IPCC-AR4, 2007). Its constituent documents were said by the IPCC to comprise “the most comprehensive and up-to-date reports available on the subject,” and to constitute “the standard reference for all concerned with climate change in academia, government and industry worldwide.” But are these characterizations correct? On the most important issue, the IPCC’s claim that “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations [emphasis in the original],” NIPCC reaches the opposite conclusion— namely, that natural causes are very likely to be the dominant cause. Note: We do not say anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) cannot produce some warming or has not in the past. Our conclusion is that the evidence shows they are not playing a substantial role. Almost as importantly, on the question of what effects the present and future warming might have on human health and the natural environment, the IPCC says global warming will “increase the number of people suffering from death, disease and injury from heatwaves, floods, storms, fires and droughts.” The NIPCC again reaches the opposite conclusion: A warmer world will be a safer and healthier world for humans and wildlife alike. Once again, we do not say global warming won’t occur or have any effects (positive or negative) on human health and wildlife.  

Rather, our conclusion is that the evidence shows the net effect of continued warming and rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere will be beneficial to humans, plants, and wildlife. We have reviewed the materials presented in the first two volumes of the Fourth Assessment—The Physical Science Basis and Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—and we find them to be highly selective and controversial with regard to making future projections of climate change and discerning a significant human-induced influence on current and past climatic trends. Although the IPCC claims to be unbiased and to have based AR4 on the best available science, such is not the case. In many instances conclusions have been seriously exaggerated, relevant facts have been distorted, and key scientific studies have been omitted or ignored. We present support for this thesis in the body of this volume, where we describe and reference thousands of peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that document scientific or historical facts that contradict the IPCC’s central claims, that global warming is man-made and that its effects will be catastrophic. Some of this research became available after the AR4’s self-imposed deadline of May 2006, but much of it was in the scientific record that was available to, and should have been familiar to, the IPCC’s editors. Below, we first sketch the history of the IPCC and NIPCC, which helps explain why two scientific bodies could study the same data and come to very different conclusions. We then explain the list of 31,478 American scientists that appears in Appendix 4, and end by expressing what we hoped to achieve by producing this report.

A Brief History of the IPCC
The rise in environmental consciousness since the 1970s has focused on a succession of ‘calamities’: cancer epidemics from chemicals, extinction of birds and other species by pesticides, the depletion of the

Climate Change Reconsidered    the Montreal Protocol, environmental lawyer David ozone layer by supersonic transports and later by Doniger of the Natural Resources Defense Council freons, the death of forests (‘Waldsterben’) because then laid out a plan to achieve the same kind of of acid rain, and finally, global warming, the “mother control mechanism for greenhouse gases, a plan that of all environmental scares” (according to the late eventually was adopted as the Kyoto Protocol. Aaron Wildavsky). From the very beginning, the IPCC was a The IPCC can trace its roots to World Earth Day political rather than scientific entity, with its leading in 1970, the Stockholm Conference in 1971-72, and scientists reflecting the positions of their governments the Villach Conferences in 1980 and 1985. In July or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the 1986, the United Nations Environment Program IPCC position. In particular, a small group of activists (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (WMO) established the Intergovernmental Panel on (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports (McKitrick Climate Change (IPCC) as an organ of the United et al., 2007). Nations. While we are often told about the thousands of The IPCC’s key personnel and lead authors were scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are appointed by governments, and its Summaries for based, the vast majority of these scientists had no Policymakers (SPM) have been subject to approval by direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the member governments of the UN. The scientists IPCC. Those policy summaries were produced by an involved with the IPCC are almost all supported by inner core of scientists, and the SPMs were revised government contracts, which pay not only for their and agreed to, line-by-line, by representatives of research but for their IPCC activities. Most travel to member governments. This obviously is not how real and hotel accommodations at exotic locations for the scientific research is reviewed and published. drafting authors is paid with government funds. These SPMs turn out, in all cases, to be highly The history of the IPCC has been described in selective summaries of the voluminous science several publications. What is not emphasized, reports—typically 800 or more pages, with no however, is the fact that it was an activist enterprise indexes (except, finally, the Fourth Assessment from the very beginning. Its agenda was to justify Report released in 2007), and essentially unreadable control of the emission of greenhouse gases, except by dedicated scientists. especially carbon dioxide. Consequently, its scientific The IPCC’s First Assessment Report (IPCC-FAR, reports have focused solely on evidence that might 1990) concluded that the observed temperature point toward human-induced climate change. The role changes were “broadly consistent” with greenhouse of the IPCC “is to assess on a comprehensive, models. Without much analysis, it gave the “climate objective, open and transparent basis the latest sensitivity” of a 1.5 to 4.5º C rise for a doubling of scientific, technical and socio-economic literature greenhouse gases. The IPCC-FAR led to the adoption produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of of the Global Climate Treaty at the 1992 Earth the risk of human-induced climate change, its Summit in Rio de Janeiro. observed and projected impacts and options for The FAR drew a critical response (SEPP, 1992). adaptation and mitigation” [emphasis added] (IPCC FAR and the IPCC’s style of work also were 2008). criticized in two editorials in Nature (Anonymous, The IPCC’s three chief ideologues have been (the 1994, Maddox, 1991). late) Professor Bert Bolin, a meteorologist at The IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (IPCCStockholm University; Dr. Robert Watson, an SAR, 1995) was completed in 1995 and published in atmospheric chemist at NASA, later at the World 1996. Its SPM contained the memorable conclusion, Bank, and now chief scientist at the UK Department “the balance of evidence suggests a discernible of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; and Dr. human influence on global climate.” The SAR was John Houghton, an atmospheric radiation physicist at again heavily criticized, this time for having Oxford University, later head of the UK Met Office undergone significant changes in the body of the as Sir John Houghton. report to make it ‘conform’ to the SPM—after it was Watson had chaired a self-appointed group to find finally approved by the scientists involved in writing evidence for a human effect on stratospheric ozone the report. Not only was the report altered, but a key and was instrumental in pushing for the 1987 graph was also doctored to suggest a human Montreal Protocol to control the emission of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Using the blueprint of  

Preface    was closed for renovation, and then finally, but only influence. The evidence presented to support the SPM under pressure, posted them online. Inspection of conclusion turned out to be completely spurious. those comments revealed that the authors had rejected There is voluminous material available about more than half of all the reviewers’ comments in the these text changes, including a Wall Street Journal crucial chapter attributing recent warming to human editorial article by Dr. Frederick Seitz (Seitz, 1996). activities. This led to heated discussions between supporters of AR4 concluded that “most of the observed the IPCC and those who were aware of the altered increase in global average temperatures since the midtext and graph, including an exchange of letters in the 20th century is very likely due to the observed Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas (Singer et al., 1997). concentrations” (emphasis in the original). However, SAR also provoked the 1996 publication of the as the present report will show, it ignored available Leipzig Declaration by SEPP, which was signed by evidence against a human contribution to current some 100 climate scientists. A booklet titled The warming and the substantial research of the past few Scientific Case Against the Global Climate Treaty years on the effects of solar activity on climate followed in September 1997 and was translated into change. several languages. (SEPP, 1997. All these are Why have IPCC reports been marred by available online at In spite of its controversy and so frequently contradicted by obvious shortcomings, the IPCC report provided the subsequent research? Certainly its agenda to find underpinning for the Kyoto Protocol, which was evidence of a human role in climate change is a major adopted in December 1997. The background is reason; its organization as a government entity described in detail in the booklet Climate Policy— beholden to political agendas is another major reason; From Rio to Kyoto, published by the Hoover and the large professional and financial rewards that Institution (Singer, 2000). go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a (IPCC-TAR 2001) was noteworthy for its use of third major reason. spurious scientific papers to back up its SPM claim of Another reason for the IPCC’s unreliability is the “new and stronger evidence” of anthropogenic global naive acceptance by policymakers of “peer-reviewed” warming. One of these was the so-called “hockeyliterature as necessarily authoritative. It has become stick” paper, an analysis of proxy data, which claimed the case that refereeing standards for many climatethe twentieth century was the warmest in the past change papers are inadequate, often because of the 1,000 years. The paper was later found to contain use of an “invisible college” of reviewers of like basic errors in its statistical analysis (McIntyre and inclination to a paper’s authors (Wegman et al., McKitrick, 2003, 2005; Wegman et al., 2006). The 2006). Policy should be set upon a background of IPCC also supported a paper that claimed pre-1940 demonstrable science, not upon simple (and often warming was of human origin and caused by mistaken) assertions that, because a paper was greenhouse gases. This work, too, contained refereed, its conclusions must be accepted. fundamental errors in its statistical analysis. The SEPP response to TAR was a 2002 booklet, The Kyoto Protocol is Not Backed by Science (SEPP, 2002). Nongovernmental International Panel on The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC Climate Change (NIPCC) (IPCC-AR4 2007) was published in 2007; the SPM of Working Group I was released in February; and the When new errors and outright falsehoods were full report from this Working Group was released in observed in the initial drafts of AR4, SEPP set up a May—after it had been changed, once again, to “Team B” to produce an independent evaluation of “conform” to the Summary. It is significant that AR4 the available scientific evidence. While the initial no longer makes use of the hockey-stick paper or the organization took place at a meeting in Milan in 2003, paper claiming pre-1940 human-caused warming. Team B was activated after the AR4 SPM appeared in Once again controversy ensued, however, this time February 2007. It changed its name to the when the IPCC refused to publicly share comments Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate submitted by peer-reviewers, then sent all the Change (NIPCC) and organized an international reviewers’ comments in hard copy to a library that climate workshop in Vienna in April 2007.

Climate Change Reconsidered    we choose to speak up for science at a time when too The present report stems from the Vienna few people outside the scientific community know workshop and subsequent research and contributions what is happening, and too few scientists who know by a larger group of international scholars. For a list the truth have the will or the platforms to speak out of those contributors, see page ii. Craig Idso then against the IPCC. made a major contribution to the report by tapping the NIPCC is what its name suggests: an international extensive collection of reviews of scientific research panel of nongovernment scientists and scholars who he helped collect and write, which is available on the have come together to understand the causes and Web site of the Center for the Study of Carbon consequences of climate change. Because we are not Dioxide and Global Change ( predisposed to believe climate change is caused by A Summary for Policymakers, edited by S. Fred human greenhouse gas emissions, we are able to look Singer, was published by The Heartland Institute in at evidence the IPCC ignores. Because we do not 2008 under the title Nature, Not Human Activity, work for any governments, we are not biased toward Rules the Planet (Singer, 2008). Since the summary the assumption that greater government activity is was completed prior to a major expansion and necessary. completion of the full NIPCC report, the two documents now stand on their own as independent scholarly works and substantially agree. What was our motivation? It wasn’t financial The Petition Project self-interest: Except for a foundation grant late in the process to enable Craig Idso to devote the many hours Attached as Appendix 4 to this report is a description necessary to assemble and help edit the final product, of “The Petition Project” and a directory of the no grants or contributions were provided or promised 31,478 American scientists who have signed the in return for producing this report. It wasn’t political: following statement: No government agency commissioned or authorized our efforts, and we do not advise or support the We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in candidacies of any politicians or candidates for public Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other office. similar proposals. The proposed limits on We donated our time and best efforts to produce greenhouse gases would harm the environment, this report out of concern that the IPCC was hinder the advance of science and technology, and provoking an irrational fear of anthropogenic global damage the health and welfare of mankind. warming based on incomplete and faulty science. There is no convincing scientific evidence Global warming hype has led to demands for that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or unrealistic efficiency standards for cars, the other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the construction of uneconomic wind and solar energy foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of stations, the establishment of large production the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial facilities for uneconomic biofuels such as ethanol scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric from corn, requirements that electric companies carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects purchase expensive power from so-called upon the natural plant and animal environments of “renewable” energy sources, and plans to sequester, at the Earth. considerable expense, carbon dioxide emitted from power plants. While there is nothing wrong with This is a remarkably strong statement of dissent initiatives to increase energy efficiency or diversify from the perspective advanced by the IPCC, and it is energy sources, they cannot be justified as a realistic similar to the perspective represented by the NIPCC means to control climate. Neither does science justify and the current report. The fact that more than ten policies that try to hide the huge cost of greenhouse times as many scientists have signed it as are alleged gas controls, such as cap and trade, a “clean to have “participated” in some way or another in the development mechanism,” carbon offsets, and similar research, writing, and review of IPCC AR4 is very schemes that enrich a few at the expense of the rest of significant. These scientists, who include among their us. number 9,029 individuals with Ph.D.s, actually Seeing science clearly misused to shape public endorse the statement that appears above. By contrast, policies that have the potential to inflict severe fewer than 100 of the scientists (and nonscientists) economic harm, particularly on low-income groups, who are listed in the appendices to the IPCC AR4  

Preface    Czech Republic and 2009 president of the Council of actually participated in the writing of the allthe European Union; Helmut Schmidt, former important Summary for Policymakers or the editing German chancellor; and Lord Nigel Lawson, former of the final report to comply with the summary, and United Kingdom chancellor of the exchequer. There therefore could be said to endorse the main findings is some evidence that policymakers world-wide are of that report. Consequently, we cannot say for sure reconsidering the wisdom of efforts to legislate whether more than 100 scientists in the entire world reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. actually endorse the most important claims that We regret that many advocates in the debate have appear in the IPCC AR4 report. chosen to give up debating the science and focus We will not make the same mistake as the IPCC. almost exclusively on questioning the motives of We do not claim the 31,478 scientists whose names “skeptics,” name-calling, and ad hominem attacks. appear at the end of this report endorse all of the We view this as a sign of desperation on their part, findings and conclusions of this report. As the authors and a sign that the debate has shifted toward climate of the petition say (in an introduction to the directory realism. of signers in Appendix 4), “signatories to the petition We hope the present study will help bring reason have signed just the petition—which speaks for and balance back into the debate over climate change, itself.” We append the list of their names to this report and by doing so perhaps save the peoples of the world with the permission of the persons who maintain the from the burden of paying for wasteful, unnecessary list to demonstrate unequivocally the broad support energy and environmental policies. We stand ready to within the scientific community for the general defend the analysis and conclusion in the study that perspective expressed in this report, and to highlight follows, and to give further advice to policymakers one of the most telling differences between the who are open-minded on this most important topic. NIPCC and the IPCC. For more information about The Petition Project, including the text of the letter endorsing it written by the late Dr. Frederick Seitz, past president of the National Academy of Sciences and president emeritus of Rockefeller University, please turn to Appendix 4 or visit the project’s Web site at S. Fred Singer, Ph.D. President, Science and Environmental Policy Project Professor Emeritus of Environmental Science, University of Virginia Looking Ahead The public’s fear of anthropogenic global warming, despite almost hysterical coverage of the issue by the mainstream media, seems to have hit a ceiling and is falling. Only 34 percent of Americans polled (Rasmussen Reports, 2009) believe humans are causing global warming. A declining number even believe the Earth is experiencing a warming trend (Pew Research Center, 2008). A poll of 12,000 people in 11 countries, commissioned by the financial institution HSBC and environmental advocacy groups, found only one in five respondents—20 percent—said they would be willing to spend any extra money to reduce climate change, down from 28 percent a year earlier (O’Neil, 2008). While the present report makes it clear that the scientific debate is tilting away from global warming alarmism, we are pleased to see the political debate also is not over. Global warming “skeptics” in the policy arena include Vaclav Klaus, president of the

Craig D. Idso, Ph.D. Chairman, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change

Acknowledgments: The editors thank Joseph and Diane Bast of The Heartland Institute for their editorial skill and R. Warren Anderson for his technical assistance.


Climate Change Reconsidered    References
Anonymous 1994. IPCC’s ritual on global warming. Nature 371: 269. IPCC-AR4 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. IPCC-FAR 1990. Scientific Assessment of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. IPCC-SAR 1996. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. IPCC-TAR 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Maddox J. 1991. Making global warming public property. Nature 349: 189. McIntyre, S. and McKitrick, R. 2003. Corrections to Mann et al. (1998) proxy data base and northern hemisphere average temperature series. Energy & Environment 14: 751-777. McIntyre, S. and McKitrick, R. 2005. Hockey sticks, principal components and spurious significance. Geophysical Research Letters 32 L03710. McKitrick, R. 2007. Independent Summary for Policymakers IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Ed. Fraser Institute. Vancouver, BC. O’Neil, P. 2008. Efforts to support global climate-change falls: Poll. Canwest News Service, 27 Nov. Pew Research Center 2008. A deeper partisan divide over global warming, summary of findings. 8 May. Rasmussen Reports 2009. Energy Update. April 17. Seitz, F. 1996. A major deception on global warming. The Wall Street Journal, 12 June. SEPP 1992. The Greenhouse Debate Continued: An Analysis and Critique of the IPCC Climate Assessment. ICS Press, San Francisco, CA. SEPP 1997. The Scientific Case Against the Global Climate Treaty. GW.html [Also available in German, French, and Spanish]. Singer, S.F. 1997, 1999. Hot Talk Cold Science. The Independent Institute, Oakland CA. Singer, S.F. 2008. Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate. The Heartland Institute, Chicago, IL. Wegman, E., Scott, D.W. and Said, Y. 2006. Ad Hoc Committee Report to Chairman of the House Committee on Energy & Commerce and to the Chairman of the House sub-committee on Oversight & Investigations on the Hockey-stick Global Climate Reconstructions. US House of Representatives, Washington DC.



Table of Contents
Preface ............................................................................................................................................iii Executive Summary........................................................................................................................1 1. Global Climate Models and Their Limitations .........................................................................9 1.1. Models and Forecasts ...............................................................................................................9 1.2 Radiation..................................................................................................................................12 1.3. Clouds......................................................................................................................................16 1.4. Precipitation .............................................................................................................................22 2. Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing ..............................................................................27 2.1. Clouds......................................................................................................................................27 2.2. Carbonyl Sulfide ......................................................................................................................29 2.3. Diffuse Light .............................................................................................................................30 2.4. Iodocompounds .......................................................................................................................34 2.5. Nitrous Oxide ...........................................................................................................................35 2.6. Methane ...................................................................................................................................37 2.7. Dimethyl Sulfide .......................................................................................................................45 2.8. Aerosols ...................................................................................................................................48 3. Observations: Temperature Records .....................................................................................63 3.1. Paleoclimate Data ...................................................................................................................63 3.2. Past 1,000 Years .....................................................................................................................66 3.3. Urban Heat Islands ..................................................................................................................95 3.4. Fingerprints ............................................................................................................................106 3.5. Satellite Data .........................................................................................................................109 3.6. Arctic ......................................................................................................................................114 3.7. Antarctic .................................................................................................................................131 4. Observations: Glaciers, Sea Ice, Precipitation, and Sea Level.........................................135 4.1. Glaciers .................................................................................................................................135 4.2. Sea Ice...................................................................................................................................152 4.3. Precipitation Trends ..............................................................................................................162 4.4. Streamflow ............................................................................................................................175 4.5. Sea-level Rise........................................................................................................................184 5. Solar Variability and Climate Cycles ....................................................................................207 5.1. Cosmic Rays..........................................................................................................................208 5.2. Irradiance ...............................................................................................................................220 5.3. Temperature ..........................................................................................................................233 5.4. Precipitation ...........................................................................................................................258 5.5. Droughts ................................................................................................................................268 5.6. Floods ....................................................................................................................................273 5.7. Monsoons ..............................................................................................................................274 5.8. Streamflow .............................................................................................................................278


Climate Change Reconsidered   

6. Observations: Extreme Weather ...........................................................................................281 6.1. Droughts ...............................................................................................................................281 6.2. Floods ....................................................................................................................................302 6.3. Tropical Cyclones .................................................................................................................309 6.4. ENSO.....................................................................................................................................330 6.5. Precipitation Variability .........................................................................................................336 6.6. Storms ...................................................................................................................................341 6.7. Snow ......................................................................................................................................347 6.8. Storm Surges ........................................................................................................................351 6.9. Temperature Variability ........................................................................................................352 6.10. Wildfires ...............................................................................................................................355 7. Biological Effects of Carbon Dioxide Enrichment ..............................................................361 7.1. Plant Productivity Responses ...............................................................................................362 7.2. Water Use Efficiency ............................................................................................................409 7.3. Amelioration of Environmental Stresses ..............................................................................414 7.4. Acclimation ...........................................................................................................................480 7.5. Competition ...........................................................................................................................487 7.6. Respiration ............................................................................................................................491 7.7. Carbon Sequestration ............................................................................................................497 7.8. Other Benefits .......................................................................................................................517 7.9. Greening of the Earth ...........................................................................................................551 8. Species Extinction ..................................................................................................................579 8.1. Explaining Extinction .............................................................................................................579 8.2. Terrestrial Plants....................................................................................................................590 8.3. Coral Reefs ............................................................................................................................596 8.4. Polar Bears ............................................................................................................................639 9. Human Health Effects ............................................................................................................663 9.1. Diseases ................................................................................................................................664 9.2. Nutrition .................................................................................................................................676 9.3. Human Longevity ...................................................................................................................691 9.4. Food vs. Nature .....................................................................................................................695 9.5. Biofuels ..................................................................................................................................701

APPENDIX 1: Acronyms ............................................................................................................ 709 APPENDIX 2: Plant Dry Weight Responses to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment...........................713 APPENDIX 3: Plant Photosynthesis Responses to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment ....................727 APPENDIX 4: The Petition Project..............................................................................................739




Executive Summary
  The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group-1 (Science) (IPCC-AR4 2007), released in 2007, is a major research effort by a group of dedicated specialists in many topics related to climate change. It forms a valuable compendium of the current state of the science, enhanced by having an index which had been lacking in previous IPCC reports. AR4 also permits access to the numerous critical comments submitted by expert reviewers, another first for the IPCC. While AR4 is an impressive document, it is far from being a reliable reference work on some of the most important aspects of climate change science and policy. It is marred by errors and misstatements, ignores scientific data that were available but were inconsistent with the authors’ pre-conceived conclusions, and has already been contradicted in important parts by research published since May 2006, the IPCC’s cut-off date. In general, the IPCC fails to consider important scientific issues, several of which would upset its major conclusion—that “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations [emphasis in the original].” The IPCC defines “very likely” as at least 90 percent certain. They do not explain how they derive this number. The IPCC also does not define the word “most,” nor do they provide any explanation. The IPCC does not apply generally accepted methodologies to determine what fraction of current warming is natural, or how much is caused by the rise in greenhouse gases (GHG). A comparison of “fingerprints” from best available observations with the results of state-of-the-art GHG models leads to the conclusion that the (human-caused) GHG contribution is minor. This fingerprint evidence, though available, was ignored by the IPCC. The IPCC continues to undervalue the overwhelming evidence that, on decadal and centurylong time scales, the Sun and associated atmospheric

cloud effects are responsible for much of past climate change. It is therefore highly likely that the Sun is also a major cause of twentieth-century warming, with anthropogenic GHG making only a minor contribution. In addition, the IPCC ignores, or addresses imperfectly, other science issues that call for discussion and explanation. These errors and omissions are documented in the present report by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). The report is divided into nine chapters that are briefly summarized here, and then more fully described in the remainder of this summary. Chapter 1 describes the limitations of the IPCC’s attempt to forecast future climate conditions by using computer climate models. The IPCC violates many of the rules and procedures required for scientific forecasting, making its “projections” of little use to policymakers. As sophisticated as today’s state-ofthe-art models are, they suffer deficiencies and shortcomings that could alter even the very sign (plus or minus, warming or cooling) of earth’s projected temperature response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. If the global climate models on which the IPCC relies are not validated or reliable, most of the rest of the AR4, while it makes for fascinating reading, is irrelevant to the public policy debate over what should be done to stop or slow the arrival of global warming. Chapter 2 describes feedback factors that reduce the earth’s temperature sensitivity to changes in atmospheric CO2. Scientific studies suggest the model-derived temperature sensitivity of the earth for a doubling of the pre-industrial CO2 level is much lower than the IPCC’s estimate. Corrected feedbacks in the climate system reduce climate sensitivity to values that are an order of magnitude smaller than what the IPCC employs. Chapter 3 reviews empirical data on past temperatures. We find no support for the IPCC’s claim that climate observations during the twentieth century are either unprecedented or provide evidence of an anthropogenic effect on climate. We reveal the

Climate Change Reconsidered    The IPCC blames high-temperature events for methodological errors of the “hockey stick” diagram increasing the number of cardiovascular-related of Mann et al., evidence for the existence of a global deaths, enhancing respiratory problems, and fueling a Medieval Warm Period, flaws in the surface-based more rapid and widespread distribution of deadly temperature record of more modern times, evidence infectious diseases, such as malaria, dengue and from highly accurate satellite data that there has been yellow fever. However, a thorough examination of the no net warming over the past 29 years, and evidence peer-reviewed scientific literature reveals that further that the distribution of modern warming does not bear global warming would likely do just the opposite and the “fingerprint” of an anthropogenic effect. actually reduce the number of lives lost to extreme Chapter 4 reviews observational data on glacier thermal conditions. We also explain how CO2melting, sea ice area, variation in precipitation, and sea level rise. We find no evidence of trends that induced global warming would help feed a growing could be attributed to the supposedly anthropogenic global population without major encroachment on global warming of the twentieth century. natural ecosystems, and how increasing production of Chapter 5 summarizes the research of a growing biofuels (a strategy recommended by the IPCC) number of scientists who say variations in solar damages the environment and raises the price of food. activity, not greenhouse gases, are the true driver of The research summarized in this report is only a climate change. We describe the evidence of a solarsmall portion of what is available in the peerclimate link and how these scientists have grappled reviewed scientific literature. To assist readers who with the problem of finding a specific mechanism that want to explore information not contained between translates small changes in solar activity into larger the covers of this volume, we have included Internet climate effects. We summarize how they may have hyperlinks to the large and continuously updated found the answer in the relationships between the sun, databases maintained by the Center for the Study of cosmic rays and reflecting clouds. Carbon Dioxide and Global Change at Chapter 6 investigates and debunks the widespread fears that global warming might cause more extreme weather. The IPCC claims global warming will cause (or already is causing) more Key Findings by Chapter droughts, floods, hurricanes, storms, storm surges, heat waves, and wildfires. We find little or no support Chapter 1. Global Climate Models and Their Limitations in the peer-reviewed literature for these predictions and considerable evidence to support an opposite • The IPCC places great confidence in the ability of prediction: That weather would be less extreme in a general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate warmer world. future climate and attribute observed climate Chapter 7 examines the biological effects of change to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse rising CO2 concentrations and warmer temperatures. gases. This is the largely unreported side of the global • The forecasts in the Fourth Assessment Report warming debate, perhaps because it is unequivocally were not the outcome of validated scientific good news. Rising CO2 levels increase plant growth procedures. In effect, they are the opinions of and make plants more resistant to drought and pests. scientists transformed by mathematics and It is a boon to the world’s forests and prairies, as well obscured by complex writing. The IPCC’s claim as to farmers and ranchers and the growing that it is making “projections” rather than populations of the developing world. “forecasts” is not a plausible defense. Chapter 8 examines the IPCC’s claim that CO2induced increases in air temperature will cause • Today’s state-of-the-art climate models fail to unprecedented plant and animal extinctions, both on accurately simulate the physics of earth’s land and in the world’s oceans. We find there little radiative energy balance, resulting in real-world evidence in support of such claims and an uncertainties “as large as, or larger than, the abundance of counter evidence that suggests doubled CO2 forcing.” ecosystem biodiversity will increase in a warmer and CO2-enriched world. • A long list of major model imperfections prevents Chapter 9 challenges the IPCC’s claim that CO2models from properly modeling cloud formation induced global warming is harmful to human health. and cloud-radiation interactions, resulting in large

Executive Summary    differences between model predictions and function as cloud condensation nuclei. Increased observations. cloudiness diffuses light, which stimulates plant growth and transfers more fixed carbon into plant • Computer models have failed to simulate even the and soil storage reservoirs. correct sign of observed precipitation anomalies, such as the summer monsoon rainfall over the • Since agriculture accounts for almost half of Indian region. Yet it is understood that nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in some countries, precipitation plays a major role in climate change. there is concern that enhanced plant growth due to CO2 enrichment might increase the amount and warming effect of this greenhouse gas. But field Chapter 2. Feedback Factors and Radiative research shows that N2O emissions fall as CO2 Forcing concentrations and temperatures rise, indicating • Scientific research suggests the model-derived this is actually another negative climate feedback. temperature sensitivity of the earth accepted by • Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas. An the IPCC is too large. Corrected feedbacks in the enhanced CO2 environment has been shown to climate system could reduce climate sensitivity to have “neither positive nor negative values that are an order of magnitude smaller. consequences” on atmospheric methane • Scientists may have discovered a connection concentrations. Higher temperatures have been between cloud creation and sea surface shown to result in reduced methane release from temperature in the tropics that creates a peatbeds. Methane emissions from cattle have “thermostat-like control” that automatically vents been reduced considerably by altering diet, excess heat into space. If confirmed, this could immunization, and genetic selection. totally compensate for the warming influence of all anthropogenic CO2 emissions experienced to date, as well as all those that are anticipated to Chapter 3. Observations: Temperature Records occur in the future. • The IPCC claims to find evidence in temperature • The IPCC dramatically underestimates the total records that the warming of the twentieth century cooling effect of aerosols. Studies have found was “unprecedented” and more rapid than during their radiative effect is comparable to or larger any previous period in the past 1,300 years. But than the temperature forcing caused by all the the evidence it cites, including the “hockey-stick” increase in greenhouse gas concentrations representation of earth’s temperature record by recorded since pre-industrial times. Mann et al., has been discredited and contradicted by many independent scholars. • Higher temperatures are known to increase emissions of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) from the • A corrected temperature record shows world’s oceans, which increases the albedo of temperatures around the world were warmer marine stratus clouds, which has a cooling effect. during the Medieval Warm Period of approximately 1,000 years ago than they are • Iodocompounds—created by marine algae— today, and have averaged 2-3ºF warmer than function as cloud condensation nuclei, which help today’s temperatures over the past 10,000 years. create new clouds that reflect more incoming solar radiation back to space and thereby cool the • Evidence of a global Medieval Warm Period is planet. extensive and irrefutable. Scientists working with a variety of independent methodologies have • As the air’s CO2 content—and possibly its found it in proxy records from Africa, Antarctica, temperature—continues to rise, plants emit the Arctic, Asia, Europe, North America, and greater amounts of carbonyl sulfide gas, which South America. eventually makes it way into the stratosphere, where it is transformed into solar-radiation• The IPCC cites as evidence of modern global reflecting sulfate aerosol particles, which have a warming data from surface-based recording cooling effect. stations yielding a 1905-2005 temperature increase of 0.74ºC +/- 0.18ºC. But this • As CO2 enrichment enhances biological growth, temperature record is known to be positively atmospheric levels of biosols rise, many of which

Climate Change Reconsidered    biased by insufficient corrections for the non• Sea ice area and extent have continued to increase greenhouse-gas-induced urban heat island (UHI) around Antarctica over the past few decades. effect. It may be impossible to make proper Evidence shows that much of the reported corrections for this deficiency, as the UHI of even thinning of Arctic sea ice that occurred in the small towns dwarfs any concomitant augmented 1990s was a natural consequence of changes in greenhouse effect that may be present. ice dynamics caused by an atmospheric regime shift, of which there have been several in decades • Highly accurate satellite data, adjusted for orbit past and will likely be several in the decades to drift and other factors, show a much more modest come, totally irrespective of past or future warming trend in the last two decades of the changes in the air’s CO2 content. The Arctic twentieth century and a dramatic decline in the appears to have recovered from its 2007 decline. warming trend in the first decade of the twentyfirst century. • Global studies of precipitation trends show no net increase and no consistent trend with CO2, • The “fingerprint” or pattern of warming observed contradicting climate model predictions that in the twentieth century differs from the pattern warming should cause increased precipitation. predicted by global climate models designed to Research on Africa, the Arctic, Asia, Europe, and simulate CO2-induced global warming. Evidence North and South America all find no evidence of reported by the U.S. Climate Change Science a significant impact on precipitation that could be Program (CCSP) is unequivocal: All greenhouse attributed to anthropogenic global warming. models show an increasing warming trend with altitude in the tropics, peaking around 10 km at • The cumulative discharge of the world’s rivers roughly twice the surface value. However, the remained statistically unchanged between 1951 temperature data from balloons give the opposite and 2000, a finding that contradicts computer result: no increasing warming, but rather a slight forecasts that a warmer world would cause large cooling with altitude. changes in global streamflow characteristics. Droughts and floods have been found to be less • Temperature records in Greenland and other frequent and severe during the Current Warm Arctic areas reveal that temperatures reached a Period than during past periods when maximum around 1930 and have decreased in temperatures were even higher than they are recent decades. Longer-term studies depict today. oscillatory cooling since the Climatic Optimum of the mid-Holocene (~9000-5000 years BP), when • The results of several research studies argue it was perhaps 2.5º C warmer than it is now. strongly against claims that CO2-induced global warming would cause catastrophic disintegration • The average temperature history of Antarctica of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In fact, provides no evidence of twentieth century in the case of Antarctica, they suggest just the warming. While the Antarctic peninsula shows opposite—i.e., that CO2-induced global warming recent warming, several research teams have would tend to buffer the world against such an documented a cooling trend for the interior of the outcome. continent since the 1970s. • The mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past. The determinants Chapter 4. Observations: Glaciers, Sea Ice, of sea level are poorly understood due to Precipitation, and Sea Level considerable uncertainty associated with a number of basic parameters that are related to the • Glaciers around the world are continuously water balance of the world’s oceans and the advancing and retreating, with a general pattern meltwater contribution of Greenland and of retreat since the end of the Little Ice Age. Antarctica. Until these uncertainties are There is no evidence of a increased rate of satisfactorily resolved, we cannot be confident melting overall since CO2 levels rose above their that short-lived changes in global temperature pre-industrial levels, suggesting CO2 is not produce corresponding changes in sea level. responsible for glaciers melting.


Executive Summary    Chapter 5. Solar Variability and Climate Cycles rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations in driving recent global warming. • The IPCC claims the radiative forcing due to changes in the solar output since 1750 is +0.12 Wm-2, an order of magnitude smaller than its Chapter 6. Observations: Extreme Weather estimated net anthropogenic forcing of +1.66 • The IPCC predicts that a warmer planet will lead Wm-2. A large body of research suggests that the to more extreme weather, characterized by more IPCC has got it backwards, that it is the sun’s frequent and severe episodes of drought, flooding, influence that is responsible for the lion’s share of cyclones, precipitation variability, storms, snow, climate change during the past century and storm surges, temperature variability, and beyond. wildfires. But has the last century – during which • The total energy output of the sun changes by the IPCC claims the world experienced more only 0.1 percent during the course of the solar rapid warming than any time in the past two cycle, although larger changes may be possible millennia – experienced significant trends in any over periods of centuries. On the other hand, the of these extreme weather events? ultraviolet radiation from the sun can change by • Droughts have not become more extreme or several percent over the solar cycle – as indeed erratic in response to global warming. Real-world noted by observing changes in stratospheric evidence from Africa, Asia, and other continents ozone. The largest changes, however, occur in the find no trend toward more frequent or more intensity of the solar wind and interplanetary severe droughts. In most cases, the worst magnetic field. droughts in recorded meteorological history were • Reconstructions of ancient climates reveal a close much milder than droughts that occurred correlation between solar magnetic activity and periodically during much colder times. solar irradiance (or brightness), on the one hand, • Floods were more frequent and more severe and temperatures on earth, on the other. Those during the Little Ice Age than they have been correlations are much closer than the relationship during the Current Warm Period. Flooding in between carbon dioxide and temperature. Asia, Europe, and North America has tended to • Cosmic rays could provide the mechanism by be less frequent and less severe during the which changes in solar activity affect climate. twentieth century. During periods of greater solar magnetic activity, • The IPCC says “it is likely that future tropical greater shielding of the earth occurs, resulting in cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become less cosmic rays penetrating to the lower more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and atmosphere, resulting in fewer cloud more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing condensation nuclei being produced, resulting in increase of tropical sea surface temperatures.” fewer and less reflective low-level clouds But despite the supposedly “unprecedented” occurring, which leads to more solar radiation warming of the twentieth century, there has been being absorbed by the surface of the earth, no increase in the intensity or frequency of resulting (finally) in increasing near-surface air tropical cyclones globally or in any of the specific temperatures and global warming. oceans. • Strong correlations between solar variability and • A number of real-world observations demonstrate precipitation, droughts, floods, and monsoons that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been documented in locations around the conditions during the latter part of the twentieth world. Once again, these correlations are much century were not unprecedented in terms of their stronger than any relationship between these frequency or magnitude. Long-term records weather phenomena and CO2. suggest that when the earth was significantly • The role of solar activity in causing climate warmer than it is currently, ENSO events were change is so complex that most theories of solar substantially reduced or perhaps even absent. forcing must be considered to be as yet unproven. • There is no support for the model-based But it would also be appropriate for climate projection that precipitation in a warming world scientists to admit the same about the role of becomes more variable and intense. In fact, some

Enhancement • A 300-ppm increase in the air’s CO2 content typically raises the productivity of most herbaceous plants by about one-third. will not materially alter the rate of decomposition of the world’s soil organic matter and will probably enhance biological carbon sequestration. The photosynthesis and biomass production that will claim that global warming will lead to more not be diminished by any global warming that extremes of climate and weather. and the stress the atmosphere have risen. decades of the twentieth century. the percentage growth cases investigated. CAM) of photosynthesis. becoming more and more robust. there has been no significant addition. plants between individual cooler and warmer years will likely exhibit enhanced rates of when different ENSO states are considered. in cases of temperature change over tens of thousands of years or over mere decades. be it when growing conditions are ideal. In fact. and marine microalgae and observational data suggest just the opposite. during which time the air’s CO2 concentration rose by 20 percent. is not supported by air temperature rises. during its recovery from the global chill of the increasing their ability to withstand drought. water-stressed conditions than it is when plants are well watered. • Although one can readily identify specific parts of the planet that have experienced both • The ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content likely significant increases and decreases in land area will not favor the growth of weedy species over burned by wildfires over the last two to three that of crops and native plants. greatly • As the earth has warmed over the past 150 years. there • Atmospheric CO2 enrichment helps ameliorate the was no net change in either the mean onset date detrimental effects of several environmental or duration of snow cover for the continent of stresses on plant growth and development. Continued increases in the air’s CO2 concentration and temperature will not result in massive losses of carbon from earth’s peatlands. low light intensity and low levels of soil fertility. or even • As the air’s CO2 content continues to rise. In Little Ice Age. the CO2-induced percentage increase in increase in either the frequency or intensity of plant biomass production is often greater under stormy weather. Elevated levels of CO2 have additionally been • Storm surges have not increased in either demonstrated to reduce the severity of low frequency or magnitude as CO2 concentrations in temperature stress. In the majority of of herbivory. Biological Effects of Carbon Dioxide respiration during the dark period. provide support for the proposition that precipitation responds more to cyclical variations • The amount of carbon plants gain per unit of in solar activity. as well as any degree of warming that might possibly accompany it. they have tended to decrease. For woody plants. the response is even greater. and macroalgae. including freshwater algae and • The ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content. the growth-promoting real-world data. these environmental 6 . The productivity benefits of CO2 enrichment are also experienced by aquatic plants. high air temperature. it is also enhanced by CO2-induced decreases in Chapter 7. including more might occur concurrently. enhanced by CO2-induced increases in net photosynthesis during the light period of the day. effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment will likely also rise. C4. In fact. North America. downward trend in blizzards. water lost—or water-use efficiency—typically rises as the CO2 content of the air rises. for the globe as a whole there was no relationship between global • The growth of plants is generally not only warming and total area burned over this period. and this positive response occurs in plants that utilize all three of the major biochemical pathways (C3.Climate Change Reconsidered    macrophytes. enhancement produced by an increase in the air’s CO2 concentration is often even greater under • Air temperature variability almost always stressful and resource-limited conditions than it is decreases when mean air temperature rises. oxidative stress. To the contrary. There appears to have been a including high soil salinity. • Between 1950 and 2002. if the ambient extremes of temperature itself.

Rising sea levels should therefore present no difficulties for coral reefs.Executive Summary    changes—if they persist—would likely work • Real-world data collected by the United Nations together to enhance carbon capture. Environmental Program (UNEP) show the rate of extinctions at the end of the twentieth century was • Other biological effects of CO2 enhancement the lowest since the sixteenth century—despite include enhanced plant nitrogen-use efficiency. and nearly always overrides. They highly reactive non-methane hydrocarbon that is follow earth’s plants. from rising temperatures in the twentieth century. Many. thanks to longer for plant growth. It also upward. Most wild species are at least one million years old. transpiration effect (which enhances plant wateras their physiology will change in ways that make use efficiency and enables plants to grow in areas them better adapted to warmer conditions. The rising CO2 content of the atmosphere may induce very small changes in the well-buffered ocean chemistry (pH) that could slightly reduce coral calcification rates. while their heatof the Earth. limited boundaries will probably remain pretty much as they are now or shift only slightly. the negative effects of ozone pollution • Land animals also tend to migrate poleward and on plant photosynthesis. • The aerial fertilization effect of the ongoing rise • As long as the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration in the air’s CO2 concentration (which greatly rises in tandem with its temperature. and atmospheric CO2 concentrations were two to seven times • The IPCC claims “new evidence suggests that higher than they are currently—provides climate-driven extinctions and range retractions substantive evidence that these marine entities are already widespread” and the “projected can successfully adapt to a dramatically changing impacts on biodiversity are significant and of key global environment. • Elevated CO2 reduces. since global losses in biodiversity are irreversible (very high confidence). Plants that were once too dry for them) are stimulating will likely spread poleward in latitude and plant growth across the globe in places that upward in elevation at the cold-limited previously were too dry or otherwise unfavorable boundaries of their ranges. 150 years of rising world temperatures..g. tropospheric ozone. The four known causes of extinctions are huge asteroids striking the planet. leading to a significant greening growing seasons and less frost. Real-world observations indicate 7 • . of the world’s species benefited nematodes. Species Extinction 15°C warmer than at present. human agriculture. which means they have all been through hundreds of climate cycles involving temperature changes on par with or greater than those experienced in the twentieth century. to areas where cold temperatures reduces atmospheric concentrations of isoprene. most plants enhances vegetative productivity) and its antiwill not need to migrate toward cooler conditions. responsible for the production of vast amounts of allowing them to also expand their ranges. None of these causes are connected with either global temperatures or atmospheric CO2 concentrations. and the introduction of alien species (e. but potential positive effects of hydrospheric CO2 enrichment may more than compensate for this modest negative phenomenon.” These claims are not supported by scientific research. and populations. while the heat-limited emitted in copious quantities by vegetation and is boundaries of their ranges are often little affected. relevance. which exhibited a modal value of 7 to 8 mm per year during the Holocene and can be more than double that value in certain branching corals. • • The 18. a prevented them from going in the past. and increased populations of earthworms and soil probably 59-cm warming-induced sea-level rise that is predicted for the coming century by the IPCC falls well within the range (2 to 6 mm per year) of typical coral vertical extension rates. human hunting. lamprey eels in the Great Lakes and pigs in Hawaii). • The persistence of coral reefs through geologic time—when temperatures were as much as 10°Chapter 8. growing longer residence time of carbon in the soil. growth and yield. and industrialization. • The world’s species have proven to be remarkably resilient to climate change.

assume trends in sea ice and temperature that are counterfactual. and forecasting. those benefits are very dubious. and the biggest influence on polar bear and probably will be higher than in the past. Rising food prices in 2008 led to food riots in several developing countries.. Biofuels for transportation (chiefly ethanol.. not antioxidant (vitamin) contents. will be no lower shrinking. and the much greater destruction yet to come. By some measures. not less. and increasing crop yield per unit of water used. The historical increase in the air’s CO2 content has improved human nutrition by raising crop • • • • • • • • 8 . century or are forecast by the IPCC’s computer models.” Biofuels compete with livestock growers and food processors for corn. than they are currently. Claims that malaria and tick-borne diseases are spreading or will spread across the globe as a result of CO2-induced warming are not supported in the scientific literature. biodiesel. percent for wheat. Chapter 9. and certainly in greater absolute Forecasts of dwindling polar bear populations amounts.” In fact. The production of biofuels also consumes enormous quantities of water compared with the production of gasoline. and exceed those that occurred during the twentieth 51 percent for vegetables. In fact. The extensive damage to natural ecosystems already caused by this poor policy decision. 33 percent for fruits and melons. “the net effect of biofuels production . which historically has taken a large toll • There is evidence that some medicinal substances on polar bear populations. and other feedstocks. • The quality of plant food in the CO2-enriched world of the future. has probably helped lengthen human lifespans and violate most of the principles of scientific since the advent of the Industrial Revolution. populations is not temperature but hunting by humans. rely on unvalidated computer • The historical increase of the air’s CO2 content climate models that are known to be unreliable. its continued upward trend will likely provide more of the same benefit. Total heat-related mortality rates have been shown to be lower in warmer climates and to be unaffected by rising temperatures during the twentieth century. is to increase CO2 emissions for decades or centuries relative to the emissions caused by fossil fuel use. Global warming reduces the incidence of cardiovascular disease related to low temperatures and wintry weather by a much greater degree than it increases the incidence of cardiovascular disease associated with high temperatures and summer heat waves. Mortality due to respiratory diseases decrease as temperatures rise and as temperature variability declines. in terms of its protein and Most populations of polar bears are growing. soybeans. 62 percent for Polar bears have survived changes in climate that legumes. There can be little doubt that ethanol mandates and subsidies have made both food and energy more.• • • Climate Change Reconsidered    that elevated CO2 and elevated temperatures are yields during the past 150 years on the order of 70 having a positive effect on most corals. 28 percent for cereals. 67 percent for root and tuber crops. the overwhelming weight of evidence shows that higher temperatures and rising CO2 levels have played an indispensible role in making it possible to feed a growing global population without encroaching on natural ecosystems. are a high price to pay for refusing to understand and utilize the true science of climate change. in plants will be present in significantly greater concentrations. Human Health Effects • The IPCC alleges that “climate change currently contributes to the global burden of disease and premature deaths” and will “increase malnutrition and consequent disorders. and methanol) are being used in growing quantities in the belief that they provide environmental benefits. expensive and therefore less available to a growing population. leading to higher food prices. increasing crop yield per unit of nutrients applied. • Higher levels of CO2 in the air help to advance all three parts of a strategy to resolve the tension between the need to feed a growing population and the desire to preserve natural ecosystems: increasing crop yield per unit of land area.

  1   Global Climate Models and Their Limitations   1.L. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It says “climate models are based on well-established physical principles and have been demonstrated to reproduce observed features of recent climate … and past climate changes … There is considerable confidence that Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate change.. Averyt. Chen. A review of the scientific 9 literature reveals numerous deficiencies and shortcomings in today’s state-of-the-art models. we first ask if computer models are capable in principle of producing reliable forecasts and then examine three areas of model inadequacies: radiation. In this chapter.) Cambridge University Press. S.3. Clouds 1. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) places great confidence in the ability of general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate future climate and attribute observed climate change to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. or by creating computer models that define a “virtual” earth-ocean-atmosphere system and run scenarios or “story lines” based on assumptions about future events.2 Radiation 1. Z. To be of any validity. D. As a result. it is impossible to conduct a small-scale experiment that reveals how the world’s climate will change as the air’s greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations continue to rise. Models and Forecasting 1. Tignor and H. (Eds. chemical. professor.1. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. has pointed out that forecasting is a practice and discipline in its own right. Marquis. and biological processes that influence climate in the real world. 591). some of which deficiencies could even alter the sign of projected climate change. References IPCC. Precipitation Introduction Because the earth-ocean-atmosphere system is so vast and complex. scientists try to forecast the effect of rising GHG by looking backwards at climate history to see how the climate responded to previous “forcings” of a similar kind. with its own institute (International Institute of Forecasters. Cambridge. 1. peer-reviewed journal (International Journal of Forecasting). founded in 1981). Miller. Scott Armstrong. M. Manning. Solomon.B.1. and an extensive body of research that has been compiled into a set of scientific procedures. p. Qin. and precipitation. 2007-I.4. University of Pennsylvania and a leading figure in the discipline of professional forecasting. The Wharton School. and they must do so correctly. currently . clouds. K. GCMs must incorporate all of the many physical. Global Climate Models and Their Limitations 1. UK. Models and Forecasting J. particularly at continental and larger scales” (IPCC. 2007-I. M. M.

who “recruited 288 people complexity and uncertainty are apt to confuse the whose professions included ‘commenting or offering output of models—which are nothing more than a advice on political and economic trends. and Spencer (2008). Armstrong and a colleague cite research by than saying that it will get colder.Climate Change Reconsidered    statistics at the Organization for Economic numbering 140. 1978) and illustrated in (2008) interviewed many of the world’s leading historical examples of incorrect forecasts made by scientists active in scientific fields relevant to climate leading experts (Cerf and Navasky. outperformed non-experts and neither group did well including Balling (2005). Michaels The failure of expert opinion to lead to reliable (2000.” They conclude: According to Armstrong. and they have been severely expertise. Christy (2005). a psychologist and professor of organizational behavior at the University of Scientists working in fields characterized by California. Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis (2007). 2002. by J. said the U. Essex and against simple rules” (Green and Armstrong. Green of reliability of the computer models used by the IPCC Monash University conducted a “forecasting audit” of to detect and forecast global warming. 2001). picking areas (geographic (Bryson. “this principle refers to keeping the chair of the United Nations Scientific Committee forecasting process separate from the planning on the Effects of Atomic Radiation. biologists. studies (Armstrong. Armstrong and Kesten C. not useful in situations involving uncertainty and 2001). when physicists. 2009). We have been unable to identify any large numbers of very distinguished scientists. Frauenfeld (2005). critical. are not scientific forecasts of global warming. Scott Armstrong.” Citing David Henderson for climate research. The term ‘politics’ is used in the broad sense renowned expert on the use of ancient ice cores of the exercise of power. 2005.N. The experts barely if at all replicate real-world phenomena by many scientists. Ascher. Berkeley. a former head of economics and global-warming hypothesis on arbitrary 10 . even complexity. Computer climate modelers certainly and substantive) within and outside their areas of fall into this trap. and other scientists who do not know the The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome rules of forecasting attempt to make climate of scientific procedures. 1998. forecasts by scientists. Many of the violations were. Their answers the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Green and showed a high level of skepticism: Armstrong.3 Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for Make sure forecasts are independent of politics. they say “the forecasts (Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for IPCC process is directed by non-scientists who have Researchers and Practitioners. they were the predictions based on their training and expertise.” themselves. by “do not begin to describe the real world.000 forecasts. even when they are communicated forecasting has shown that experts’ predictions are through complex computer models (Armstrong.” One principle of scientific forecasting Green and • Dr. The authors’ search of the contribution of Working Group I to the IPCC “found • Prof. McKitrick (2007). In support of his the Earth will get warmer have no more credence position. Zbigniew Jaworowski. Claims that necessarily scientific forecasts. 2006. Freeman Dyson. said the models used to justify global sufficient detail to be evaluated] violated 72 warming alarmism are “full of fudge factors” and principles. In other words. forecasts has been confirmed in scores of empirical Posmentier and Soon (2005). 2007). By 2003. chairman of the Armstrong say the IPCC violated is “Principle 1. In effect. professor of physics at the no references … to the primary sources of Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton information on forecasting methods” and “the University. their opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics forecasts are no more reliable than those made by and obscured by complex writing. that must be used to make reliable Cooperation and Development (OECD). 1993). 2007). Philip E.” The Radiological Protection in Warsaw and former two authors write. global warming is real and danger. Research on nonexperts. change and asked them for their views on the In 2007.’ He asked statement of how the modeler believes a part of the them to forecast the probability that various situations world works—with real-world trends and forecasts would or would not occur. 1998).. one of the world’s most eminent forecasting procedures that were described [in physicists. policy objectives and who believe that anthropogenic Kluwer Academic Publishers. Tetlock (2005). “based its (Henderson. he had accumulated more than criticized for failing to notice that their models fail to 82. 2007). Craig et al. a worldprocess. Cerf and Canadian science writer Lawrence Solomon Navasky.

They do a very poor job of describing the clouds. 11 . said “there exists no sound theoretical framework The distinction is important.” They conclude that “the IPCC does • Dr. and wrong. said the IPCC is “trumpeting correspond to certain emissions scenarios. 1978. said Additional information on this topic. R.C. Many of the scientists cited above observe that computer models can be “tweaked” to reconstruct climate histories after the fact. P. subject/m/subject_m. former forecasts are unscientific and therefore likely to be president of the European Physical Society. In Michaels. and add that those physics at the University of Bologna. Observational surface temperature records versus model predictions. MA. 2007). it is now D. Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy Makers and Planners. 2006. Johns Hopkins University Press.co2science. Norwell. But this provides no assurance that the new model will do a better job forecasting future climates. 2007). principal researcher at the derivatives occurred 90 times in the body of Chapter Institute for Environmental Studies at Vrije 8” of the Working Group I report.I. and member of the National Research “the IPCC does not make forecasts” but “instead Council Board on Atmospheric Sciences and proffers ‘what if’ projections of future climate that Climate.” contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report. Richard Tol.” We agree. and a survey of Universiteit and adjunct professor at the Center climate scientists conducted by those same authors for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of found “most of our respondents (29 of whom were Global Change at Carnegie Mellon University. and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. the dust. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in” (Dyson. 2001. References Armstrong. Individual climate models often have widely differing assumptions about basic climate mechanisms but are then “tweaked” to produce similar forecasts. He argued that at M. including global warming models are “incoherent and reviews of climate model inadequacies not discussed invalid. J. on Climate Change (IPCC) are often treated as such. Armstrong point out. Richard Lindzen. The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics. as the IPCC points out in the passage quoted at the beginning of this chapter. one of the world’s foremost physicists. 50-71.. a professor of meteorology blog of the science journal Nature. W. Principles of Forecasting – A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error. Jones of chapter 3 of the Working Group I clear. He says “there are no such predictions [in the IPCC reports] although • Prof. alarmist and incompetent. can be found at http://www.) Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming. emeritus professor of provide forecasts. J. director of research at the projections given by the Intergovernmental Panel the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.S.. “the word ‘forecast’ and its derivatives occurred 37 times. a lead author along with Philip assumptions and these assumptions.” here. (Ed. and indeed points to how unreliable the models are.” ‘scenarios’ or ‘projections’) of global average   temperature. 2005. the chemistry. Lanham. Baltimore. are false. and ‘predict’ and its • Dr.” for climate predictability studies” used for global This defense is hardly satisfactory. MD.Global Climate Models and Their Limitations    Kevin Trenberth.php under the heading Models Princeton’s Freeman Dyson has written of Climate. Antonino Zichichi. This is nothing like how real scientific forecasting is done. Kluwer Academic Publishers.S. replied to some of these scathing criticisms on the • Dr.J. Armstrong. “I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do. As Green and warming forecasts. MD. Balling.T. International Journal of Forecasting 22: 583-598. Rowman & Littlefield. and the biology of fields and farms and forests.” and then catastrophes that couldn’t happen even if the hopes these “projections” will “guide policy and models were right. elsewhere. IPCC authors or reviewers) nominated the IPCC said the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report is report as the most credible source of forecasts (not “preposterous .” decision makers” (Trenberth. Hendrik Tennekes.

Columbia University Press. our ability to describe the system sufficiently well in even the largest computer models is a problem. NJ.C. Expert Political Judgment—How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton University Press.H. August.. R. 2005. Taken by Storm. Craig. L. New York. 2002. Green. K. Predictive skill of the El NiñoSouthern Oscillation and related atmospheric teleconnections. Key Porter Books. noting that “we could easily have uncertainties of many tens of Wm-2 in our description of the radiative effect of such clouds. Solomon. Frauenfeld. Rowman & Littlefield. Useless Arithmetic. Harries says “even if [our] understanding were perfect. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 27: 83-118. DC. P. and how these properties may change under climate forcing. Princeton. Michaels. Energy Environ. O.E. or larger than. Global warming and forecasts of climate change. The Experts Speak.E. 2005. Minneapolis. Of this task. Temperature changes in the bulk atmosphere: beyond the IPCC.” Harries says “we must exercise great caution over the true depth of our understanding. New Literary History: 24: 783-795. In Michaels. Tetlock. 2007. he states that our knowledge of high cirrus clouds is very poor. Richard Vigilante Books. 72-105. MD. C. Radiation One problem facing GCMs is how to accurately simulate the physics of earth’s radiative energy balance. 2005. 1. Policy and Politics of Global Warming.S. A.J. P. the doubled CO2 forcing could easily exist in our modeling of future climate trends. on-going research is fascinating. DC.) Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming. Washington. D. 2007. N2. Rowman & Littlefield. DC. and Soon. which had earlier been discovered to absorb a small but significant fraction of the globally incident solar radiation. (Ed. 2008. and our ability to forecast future climate trends. P. 241-281. J. Zender revealed that these molecular collisions lead 12 . to quote Harries. water vapor demers (a double molecule of H2O) shows strong absorption bands in the near-infrared of the solar spectrum. but we have still a great deal to understand about the physics of climate. W.A.S. P.” A related problem is illustrated by the work of Zender (1999). Satanic Gases: Clearing the Air About Global Warming.” This state of affairs is disconcerting in light of the fact that the radiative effect of a doubling of the air’s CO2 content is in the lower single-digit range of Wm-2.J. regional and seasonal atmospheric heating caused by the oxygen collision pairs O2 .) Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming. MD. “uncertainties as large as. P. Governments and climate change issues: The case for rethinking. Toronto. K. P. 2007. Spencer. Canada. Nature blog. Climate of Extremes: Global Warming Science They Don't Want You to Know. Lanham. 1998. Posmentier. F. 2007. http://blogs. Last accessed May 6. and Koomey.nature. 2000. 2008. Cato Institute. due to uncertainties in the feedback processes. R. Political Persecution. Harries (2000) says “progress is excellent.) Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming. MD. P. Henderson. What can history teach us? A retrospective examination of long-term energy forecasts for the United States. 1993. and McKitrick. NY. Johns Hopkins University Press. World Economics 8: 183228. Michaels. J.2.J. Gadgil.P. and Navasky. Michaels. (Ed. Heretical thoughts about science and society.J. In Michaels. Washington. 2005. The Troubled Science. Lanham. Essex. and Pilkey-Jarvis. 2007.J. Politicians and the Media. Washington. Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists. Baltimore.G.” As an example. Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science. Cato Institute. O2 and O2 . P. Dyson. R.” Because of the vast complexity of the subject. Christy. who characterized the spectral. Rowman & Littlefield. Global warming: forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts.Climate Change Reconsidered    Bryson. Cerf.J. Environment. O. J. 2002.W. Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor. Lanham. vertical. C. 2005.. In addition. climatefeedback/2007/07/global_warming_and_forecasts_o . and global change: A skeptic’s evaluation. 149-182. E. MD. V. 2009. Encounter Books. and Fraud**And those who are too fearful to do so. The Deniers: The World Renowned Scientists Who Stood Up Against Global Warming Hysteria. Limitations of computer predictions of the effects of carbon dioxide on global temperature. 18: 997–1021. New York. and. 2009.html. Cato Institute. environmentalists. (Ed. MN. In Michaels. Trenberth. and Armstrong. L. Edge: The Third Culture.

1 to 2. aerosols. They Similar large model underestimations were conclude that “the great uncertainty in the radiative discovered by Wild and Ohmura (1999).” Consequently.” CO2-induced warming of the future. most of the result.11. Ghan et al. Ghan et al. came up with some numbers cycle to century. “one are inadequately represented in the global climate could easily add the usual list of uncertainties in the models used by the IPCC to predict future greenhouse representation of clouds. There appears to be a double standard Zender’s words. there are a number of stretching from a small cooling to a modest warming..5 Wm-2. say. highly but rather an initial perturber of the climate system 13 . (2003). where CO2 is not Also studying the aerosol-induced radiative forcing of climate were Vogelmann et al. Indeed.” as they combination of process studies designed to improve produce a rather substantial mean error close to 20 understanding of the key processes involved in the percent below actual observations. achieving “profound reductions in the uncertainties of These results were compared with estimates of solar direct and indirect forcing by anthropogenic radiation absorption derived from four GCMs and.” so that properly account for spatial and temporal variations in “estimates of the total global mean present-day atmospheric aerosol concentrations. while at the same time bottom line.” At the conclusion of this laborious set of range of timescales extending from the 11-year solar operations. Wild (1999) compared Ghan et al. large-scale atmospheric models used to them.” which implies a climate change somewhere solar radiation absorbed by water vapor and clouds. regional and by anthropogenic aerosols is estimated to be -0. they use included in . the direct forcing predicted by three GCMs and found the model predictions were much too small. they conclude. between a modest warming and a slight cooling.” don’t use them. who forcing must be reduced if the observed climate analyzed a comprehensive observational dataset record is to be reconciled with model predictions and consisting of solar radiation fluxes measured at 720 if estimates of future climate change are to be useful sites across the earth’s surface and corresponding topin formulating emission policies. O2. forcing. forces in motion that produce the bulk of the ultimate globally and annually averaged.Global Climate Models and Their Limitations    -2 that according to the IPCC sets other more powerful to the absorption of about 1 Wm of solar radiation. but when they don’t suit their purposes.and millennial-scale cycles (see that considerably reduce the range of uncertainty in Section 4. (2001) warn that “present-day the observed amount of solar radiation absorbed in radiative forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases the atmosphere over equatorial Africa with what was is estimated to be 2. In another revealing study.” but that still implied a set of climate changes phenomena are rather small. after which they acknowledged that even this many nonlinear responses to solar activity variability list “is hardly complete. who the major cause of the predicted temperature increase report that “mineral aerosols have complex. (1999). closure experiments designed to evaluate that Another solar-related deficiency of GCMs is their understanding. it was shown that “GCM atmospheres are analysis of the situation. and integrated models that treat all of failure to properly account for solar-driven variations the necessary processes together and estimate the in earth-atmosphere processes that operate over a forcing. Solar Influence on Climate).” of-the-atmosphere locations to assess the true amount Pursuit of this goal. while the indirect forcing by anthropogenic -2 as 30 Wm .” and handedly with different aspects of climate change. must be done in order to obtain a more definitive According to Chambers et al.” which is what they set out to do in their again. “multiplier effects” that may significantly amplify They also provided a long list of other things that their impacts.8 Wm-2. the gas-induced global warming. requires of solar radiation absorbed within the atmosphere. O3.” In fact. Wild anthropogenic forcing range from 3 Wm-2 to found the models likely underestimated the amount of -1 Wm-2. he suggests that the phenomenon “should therefore be When multiplier effects suit their purposes. is that “much remains to other amplifier effects are used to model past be done before the estimates are reliable enough to glacial/interglacial cycles and even the hypothesized base energy policy decisions upon. which consisted of “a generally too transparent for solar radiation. “alters the long-standing view that within the climate modeling community that may best H2O. primarily because the models failed to aerosols is estimated to be 0 to -1. In addition. This discovery. etc. they simulate climate and climate change. Although the “total global mean present-day anthropogenic the absolute solar flux variations associated with these forcing.5 Wm-2.. in warming.3 to seasonal model underestimation biases were as high 1. in their words. CO2 and NO2 are the only significant be described as an inherent reluctance to deal evengaseous solar absorbers in earth’s atmosphere.

” as it did over the past two decades.” Expanding on atmosphere increased by about 4 Wm-2 between the this assessment. that “daytime surface IR Pacific Ocean provides “an important dynamical forcings are often a few Wm-2 and can reach almost constraint for model studies that attempt to simulate 10 Wm-2 for large aerosol loadings.. saying flatly that the results radiation emitted to space at the top of the tropical indicated “the models are deficient. for equal loadings.” The first interannual and decadal time scales can be of the seminal discoveries was the common finding of improved.Climate Change Reconsidered    produced by what Chen et al. they say.” Because tropical Pacific Ocean (McPhaden and Zhang. Vogelmann et al. “identifying the during this time. (2002) tested the ability of four stateforcing caused by greenhouse gas increases since preof-the-art climate models and one weather industrial times..” They say “only a hand was likely provided by the past quarterfew large-scale climate models currently consider century’s slowdown in the meridional overturning aerosol IR effects (e. determined to be “a varied optical properties that. “then the the same period. and they all failed to the-art climate models. sea surface warming by reducing the rate-of-supply of used high-resolution spectra to calculate the surface relatively colder water to the region of equatorial IR radiative forcing created by aerosols encountered upwelling.” more solar radiation to reach the surface of the earth’s which knowledge is needed for understanding how tropical region and warm it.” Another helping25 Wm-2 (Sokolik et al. 2002) revealed what Hartmann in the tropics so that prediction of tropical climate on (2002) called a pair of “tropical surprises. 2002).. Tegen et al. Wm-2 change in the globally averaged surface IR Wielicki et al. which allowed tropical climate reacts to an external perturbation. can decadal-time-scale strengthening of the tropical cause differences in the surface IR flux between 7 and Hadley and Walker circulations. he noted that “if the energy budget 1980s and the 1990s. 1996. the measured thermal radiative energy represented in climate models. in their words.” In a massive understatement of fact. 1998).” and that “this maximum appears to be robust as Hartmann notes. No significant decadal variability was of this magnitude is not included in current state-ofexhibited by any of the models. from intraseasonal to average tropical surface temperature were observed millennial. in the outflow of air from northeastern Asia. based on These observations provide several new measurements made by the Marine-Atmospheric phenomena for the models to replicate as a test of Emitted Radiance Interferometer aboard the NOAA their ability to properly represent the real world.” If a forcing two decades. circulation of the upper 100 to 400 meters of the 2001) despite their potentially large forcing. The second was that the amount can vary substantially in the absence of obvious of reflected sunlight decreased by 1 to 2 Wm-2 over forcing. Yet 30°C.” Hence. Bellon et al. the time-varying Characterization Experiment-Asia. The administrators of the test kindly Two papers published one year earlier and concluded that “the missing variability in the models appearing in the same issue of Science (Chen et al. In Ship Ronald H. they meridional overturning circulation of the upper determined.g. In doing so. These changes were 14 . assimilation model to reproduce the observed decadal the researchers concluded that their results “highlight changes in top-of-the-atmosphere thermal and solar the importance of aerosol IR forcing which should be radiative energy fluxes that occurred over the past included in climate model simulations.” which values recent observed decadal changes in the Pacific. Jacobson.” Hartmann was considerably more candid both groups of researchers that the amount of thermal in his scoring of the test.” they say “are comparable to or larger than the 1 to 2 In an eye-opening application of this principle. what other major forcings are reproduce even the cyclical seasonal change in they ignoring? tropical albedo.” How did this occur? stabilizing feedback(s) that help(s) maintain this The change in solar radiation reception was threshold is essential in order to understand how the driven by reductions in cloud cover. of these facts... Wielicki et al. with the net result that more total climate of earth has modes of variability that are not radiant energy exited the tropics in the latter decade.” loss at the top of the tropical atmosphere was of the Also concentrating on the tropics. same magnitude as the thermal radiative energy gain (2003) note that “observed tropical sea-surface that is generally predicted to result from an temperatures (SSTs) exhibit a maximum around instantaneous doubling of the air’s CO2 content. and in an attempt to persuade climate which circulation slowdown also promotes tropical modelers to rectify the situation. Brown during the Aerosol the words of McPhaden and Zhang. “only very small changes in on various timescales. yet fully understood and cannot yet be accurately In addition. highlights the critical need to improve cloud modeling 2002.

C. Contemporary Physics 41: 309-322.co2science. including “adaptive infrared iris” concept of Lindzen et al.” H. Neither. there are a number of major Sciences 52: 1784-1806. S.M. Ogle..” Also.php. inadequacies in the ways the earth’s radiative energy 15 . This contention is further of pertinent phenomena that are nowhere to be found substantiated by the study of Pierrehumbert (1995). and Hou. J. “suggests Evidence for strengthening of the tropical general the presence of an important and as-yet-unexplored circulation in the 1990s. 2002.-D. and Del Genio. and Ghil. R.. the local runaway greenhouse. water vapor. Bellon et al. and Zhang. Global direct radiative forcing due to troposphere. Tropical surprises. contrast to what is suggested by the climate models Pierrehumbert. Journal important effect on the sensitivity of the tropical of Geophysical Research 106: 5279-5293. F. 2002.Global Climate Models and Their Limitations    balance is treated in contemporary general circulation the global climate reacts to perturbations such as models of the atmosphere. Laulainen. they note that Pierrehumbert’s work demonstrates that interactions soundly supported by the current state of the climate between moist and dry regions are an essential part of modeling enterprise. consequently.D. Chen. 2001. in the models.J.L.. B. analyzed various feedbacks associated References with this sensitivity in a four-box model of the Bellon. “that the tropical climate is not determined anthropogenic CO2 emissions are beyond what can be locally. Does the the maximum “allowable” SSTs of tropical regions. M. M. available. Thermostats. reviews of newer publications as they become (2001). Chapman. perturbations by enhancing the evaporation feedback. climate have shown it to be rather sensitive to the relative areas of moist and dry regions of the tropics. N.” in the words of Bellon catastrophic climatic changes due to continued et al.R. can be found at http://www.I.” In addition. M. D. Journal of the Atmospheric In conclusion. Y. contribute to maintain the ‘lid’ on tropical SSTs. Abdul-Razzak. Leung.. Bellon et al.S.” specifically stating that “this dependence Harries. where it can be radiated to space by multicomponent anthropogenic and natural aerosols. This literature review makes clear that the case is not closed on either the source or the significance of Lindzen. is the case closed on the degree to which the planet may warm in response to McPhaden.Z. D. A. system... tropical climate stability. R.T.E.. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 1551-1568.J. influence of the model’s surface-wind parameterization in an attempt to shed further light on Chambers. Zhang. 2002. earth have an adaptive infrared iris? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82: 417-432. 2001. E. Chou. M.G. 2003. Science 295: 838-841. 1999. J. M. 1995. Science 295: 811atmosphere and allows the atmospheric circulation to 812. as well as numerous other those produced by solar variability and the ongoing telling inadequacies stemming from the non-treatment rise in the air’s CO2 content. Slowdown of the continued increases in the atmospheric concentrations meridional overturning circulation in the upper Pacific of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.. R. and Blackford. J.. 2001. but globally. R. for the tropical climate observations of constrained maximum sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A. feedback in earth’s tropical climate. IPCC-inspired predictions of which “clearly demonstrates. export more energy to the subtropical free Jacobson. G. Progress in define the global climate system that is responsible Physical Geography 23: 181-204. A physically based estimate of surface wind on the large-scale circulation has an radiative forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol.1029/2003GL017895.. Easter. Carlson.’s work. radiator fins. which points to the Additional information on this topic. they investigated the Noting that previous box models of tropical subject/m/inadeqradiation. Large-scale tropical climate “to show how they modulate the and evaporation-wind feedbacks in a box model of the response of the tropical temperature to a radiative tropical climate. in stark Ocean. as they describe it. and promoted by the IPCC. R. Physics of the earth’s radiative energy reduces significantly the SST sensitivity to radiative balance. 2000. H.D. Le Treut.. Geophysical Research Letters 30: perturbation.A.” which injects more heat into the Hartmann. Saylor. the nature of the underlying feedbacks that help Palaeoenvironmental evidence for solar forcing of Holocene climate: linkages to solar science. that could Ghan.2. L.J. which is reported in Section 1. They say the demonstrated “dependence of the and Zaveri.S..Y. Nature 415: 603-608.E.

(2000) evaluated the sensitivities of al.” He also became convinced that “classical convection parameterizations do not Wild. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 24B: 261-268. B. cloud microphysical processes in determining tropical Randall.. effective way.. Discrepancies between model-calculated observations led him to conclude that “it is unlikely and observed shortwave atmospheric absorption in areas that traditional convection parameterizations can be with high aerosol loadings.” succeeding.B. M.5°C. A.. I.. D. S. A. noting there were serious problems related to tropical mean radiative energy budget. Allan. led to sea surface horizontal space scales.A. increments of four and comparing the results to Modeling the radiative characteristics of airborne mineral observed values. observed values. radiative absorption of solar radiation in GCM atmospheres. P. and surface processes within a very limited scope.J.484..3. converge. who determined that many GCMs of the late 1990s tended to under-predict the presence of subtropical marine stratocumulus clouds and failed to 1. as occurred in the has to do with model resolution on vertical and normal application of their model.A. Geophysical Research range of resolutions tested.P. I. These Wild. varying the latter from 16 to 60 layers in 16 . The model results did not Letters 30: 10.W.361-27. while incoming solar radiation K..A.M. I. even at a resolution of 60 layers.” Consequently. Soden. Flatau. C.371. 2003. Nature 380: 419-422. previously cited in Section 1. M. A. Yang...T. Journal of Reaching rather similar conclusions were Gordon Geophysical Research 104: 24. M. range of resolutions tested. 1998. Szczodrak. Wong. Grabowski (2000) found much the same H. In an analysis of the multiple roles played by J. 1999. C. F. T. A.J. Observations of large aerosol experienced similar significant variations across the infrared forcing at the surface.1029/2002GL016829.S. Science 295: 841the degree to which computer models failed to 844. and how these properties may change and subsequent studies suggest they still are not under climate forcing. R. 1996. to 20 Wm-2 as model vertical resolution was varied.. (2000). and Fung. R.” solar absorption of oxygen collision complexes. One reason for their lack of success the removal of the low clouds. outgoing longwave radiation varied by 10 climate forcing of mineral aerosols from disturbed soils. climate. Markowicz. 1999.T. Toon. B.. Moving into the twenty-first century.J. Miller. et al. These deficiencies are extremely important because these Correctly parameterizing the influence of clouds on particular clouds exert a major cooling influence on climate is an elusive goal that the creators of the surface temperatures of the sea below them. processes.. of such clouds..Climate Change Reconsidered    Sokolik..471-24. Global climatology of abundance and be treated as qualitative rather than quantitative. which corresponded to about 20 percent of the observed cloud cover fraction. P. This effort revealed that cloud aerosols at infrared wavelengths. Slingo. Lack of adequate resolution temperature increases on the order of 5. This is (2000).N. Susskind. 2002. Journal of Geophysical fraction varied by approximately 10 percent over the Research 103: 8813-8826. Evidence for large decadal variability in the thing. O.M.. forces modelers to parameterize the ensemble largeFurther condemnation of turn-of-the-century scale effects of processes that occur on smaller scales model treatments of clouds came from Harries than their models are capable of handling.1. finding a strong inverse relationship resolution. and Bergstrom. Tegen. 1999.J. Wielicki. and Minnett. Gordon. In the atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have situation investigated by Gordon and his colleagues. A. Journal of Geophysical used to address this fundamental question in an Research 104: 27. Robertson. J. who wrote particularly true of physical processes such as cloud that our knowledge of high cirrus clouds is very poor formation and cloud-radiation interactions.. correctly incorporate cloud microphysics. 2000). The influence on Similarly.. The role of clouds and the include realistic elements of cloud physics and they cloud-free atmosphere in the problem of underestimated represent interactions among cloud physics. (2001) analyzed cloud cover and sea surface the cloud-radiation parameterizations utilized in temperature (SST) data over a large portion of the contemporary GCMs to changes in vertical model Pacific Ocean. Clouds simulate the seasonal cycle of clouds. “model results must Zender. he says.. and Ohmura. yet to achieve. Lindzen et Lane et al.-K. Lacis. amounting to approximately 5 to 10 percent of Vogelmann. Several and that “we could easily have uncertainties of many studies suggest that older model parameterizations did tens of Wm-2 in our description of the radiative effect not succeed in this regard (Groisman et al. and Jacobowitz. Kiehl.

and from effect of underestimating the iris effect. resulted from contemporary climate model results were already variations in subtropical clouds that are not physically being “used by many decision-makers.15 to -0. temperature.].51.) The effects were overestimated by Lindzen et al. “may scientific literature. sensitive current climate models” that were being including cloud optical and precipitation properties used to predict the consequences of projected caused by changes in the spectrum of cloud increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration.” al.’s much these clouds is a function of cloud droplet larger negative feedback factor of -0. It is amazing that some by about 22 percent for each degree C increase in political leaders proclaim the debate over global cloudy region SST.45 to -1. Chou et al.] has the data collected at Cape Grim.” while dimethyl sulfide (DMS) in the oceans with climate. such in the two opposing views of the subject. Tasmania. were insufficiently well known to provide useful insights into future conditions.” Fu et purposes. also claiming to show that water vapor and low cloud (See Section 2. As a radiation balance is significantly influenced by the result. Essentially.’s origin in the flux of DMS from the world’s oceans to approach of specifying longwave emission and cloud the atmosphere. and that the albedo of -0.” so that “the near-zero Charlson et al. they obtained a feedback factor in the range of albedo of marine stratus clouds. respectively.03. reports of other pertinent studies in the peer-reviewed however. arguing that “the contribution of tropical that this assumption is erroneous. compared to Lindzen et al. as the researchers warming is “over” when some of the meteorological described it.’s hypothesis that was derived from contrast in cloud albedos derived by [Fu et al. (1987) described a negative since the radiative forcing over the tropical high cloud feedback process that links biologically-produced region is near zero and not strongly positive. and must continuously evaluate and improve the GCMs Hartmann and Michelsen (2002) quickly claimed the we use.3 for a more complete discussion.] is too large for cirrus clouds and too small for (2000) summarized empirical evidence supporting boundary layer clouds. they estimated it would “more before the infrared iris effect debate emerged.” In the end. the debate that the area of cirrus cloud coverage normalized by a over the reality and/or magnitude of the adaptive measure of the area of cumulus coverage decreased infrared iris effect continues. in such a manner as to resist changes in tropical surface emissions. the indeed have overestimated the iris effect somewhat.” that it was thus “unreasonable to interpret these Although some may think that what we currently changes as evidence that deep tropical convective know about the subject is sufficient for predictive anvils contract in response to SST increases. As but a single high clouds to the feedback process would be small example. low boundary clouds are are indeed “diverse and complex” and in many optically thick. agreed that Lindzen et al.” 17 . In fact. condensation nuclei. noted than cancel all the positive feedbacks in the more that changes in many climate-related phenomena. which entirely offset the effects of anthropogenic CO2 more effectively permit infrared cooling. His Lindzen’s challenge to what had become climatic advice in the light of this knowledge gap was that “we political correctness could not go uncontested. which is dependent upon the In a contemporaneously published reply to this availability of condensation nuclei that have their critique. (1987) have a sound physical basis. to be status of the climate-modeling enterprise two years substantial. Charlson et al. the cloud albedo calculated by [Fu et instances “not well understood.. concentration. albedos “appears to be inappropriate for studying the Acknowledging that the roles played by DMS iris effect.” although he was forced to acknowledge that correlation noted by Lindzen et al. “major links in the feedback chain proposed by though hardly by as much as that suggested by [Fu et Charlson et al. and governments.Global Climate Models and Their Limitations    Although there has thus been some convergence between upper-level cloud area and mean SST. including connected to deep convection near the equator.” Ayers and Gillett al.” and that since “thin cirrus are widespread oxidation products within the context described above in the tropics and . in a review of the then-current feedback was calculated by Lindzen et al. “the cloudy-moist region appears to act community’s best minds continue to clash over the as an infrared adaptive iris that opens up and closes nature and magnitude of a phenomenon that could down the regions free of upper-level clouds. (2002) also chipped away at the adaptive infrared which we still lack definitive answers—demonstrates iris concept. Chou et al.” The sensitivity of this negative Grassl (2000). (2002) stated that Fu et al. by at basic tenet of this hypothesis is that the global least 60 percent and 33 percent. a host of questions posed by Grassl—for al. According to their findings..

and these processes are not fully as they begin to describe what they call the “appalling incorporated into even the very best of the current complexity” of the cloud parameterization situation. state that their data “completely change the processes acting in concert. who that with current approaches the cloud state at the outset of their review of the subject that 18 . and As for the significance of their findings. during the 1970s and ‘80s. as their parameterizations are described by In doing so. O’Dowd et al. in this regard. turbulence. waterBecause. nor are analogous phenomena They state that “our understanding of the interactions that occur over land included in them.) and not knowing all that much about what goes up.” To drive this source of organic matter from the ocean is omitted point home.” Research station on the west coast of Ireland during With respect to stratiform clouds.” Based on these findings. world’s oceans. cloud parameterization deficiencies will Gillett highlights an important suite of negative continue to plague us for many more decades into the feedback processes that act in opposition to modelfuture. Further to this point.” or as identify the most important processes on the basis of they say in another place in their paper. all of which influence the cloud complicated.” component of the aerosol-cloud-climate feedback Randall et al.” as the marine-derived organic matter “can enhance the they put it.” unsolved.. O’Dowd radiation should be parameterized as closely coupled et al. as “very rough caricatures of reality. Why? nuclei given that water-soluble organic carbon. when Randall et al. that “despite the best efforts of [the climate remote marine boundary layer of the Southern modeling] community .7 of this report.” Section 2. “at the current rate The empirical evidence analyzed by Ayers and of progress. During the spring through autumn.” “At this time. report that “cumulus parameterizations were however. the situation is phytoplanktonic blooms at various times of the year. such as those of the hot towers [of cumulus convection] with the discussed by Idso (1990).” Even at the time of their study. very hard. Randall et al. they had to mass (about 45 percent is water-insoluble and about report that the concept of detrainment was “somewhat 18 percent water-soluble). as they report that “downdrafts are properties of aerosols found in northeast Atlantic either not parameterized or crudely parameterized in marine air arriving at the Mace Head Atmospheric large-scale models. murky” and the conditions that trigger detrainment they performed model simulations that indicated that were “imperfectly understood.Climate Change Reconsidered    “the representation of cloud processes in global and there is “compelling observational evidence to atmospheric models has been recognized for decades suggest that DMS and its atmospheric products as the source of much of the uncertainty surrounding participate significantly in processes of climate predictions of climate variability.” predicted CO2-induced global warming over the “Clouds are complicated.” but they report that only picture of what influences marine cloud condensation a few GCMs have even attempted to do so. are typically developers. “the cloud insoluble organic carbon and surface-active parameterization problem is overwhelmingly properties. they say. declare..” to solve: It is very. “no existing GCM includes a satisfactory cloud droplet concentration by 15 percent to more parameterization of the effects of mesoscale cloud than 100 percent and is therefore an important circulations. additionally say that “the largesystem involving marine biota.” They report.” as they call them. global circulation is still in a fairly primitive state. (See also. 15 percent. “an important woefully incomplete observations. (2004) it’s not surprising we also don’t know much about measured size-resolved physical and chemical what comes down.” scale effects of microphysics. they extensively tested against observations without even found that “the organic fraction dominates and accounting for the effects of the attendant stratiform contributes 63 percent to the submicrometer aerosol clouds. when biological activity was high. the four Another perspective on the cloud-climate scientists conclude that “a sober assessment suggests conundrum is provided by Randall et al. the organic As for interactions between convective and stratiform fraction of the submicrometer aerosol mass was about clouds. are still “struggling to not parameterized in current climate models.” What is more. the problem remains largely Hemisphere. they say “there is little question why the from current climate-modeling predictions and should cloud parameterization problem is taking a long time be taken into account. regulation and reactive atmospheric chemistry in the however. no better. as they continue. they found that in the winter.” In fact.” and “cloud parameterization condensation nuclei activation potential. crop of climate models.” biological activity was at its lowest. (2003).” Randall et al.

System (CERES) program. infrared. report a four-fold cover and cloud amount in the stratocumulus regions difference in high clouds among the models.” seasonal amplitudes among the models and satellite The 17 scientists who wrote Siebesma et al. (2005) compared basic cloud climate modelers.Global Climate Models and Their Limitations    [our italics] result in models that are capable of parameterization problem will not be ‘solved’ in any simulating our climate system with increasing of our lifetimes. and tropical cloud systems.” in order to “document the simulating clouds so that future progress can be performance quality of state-of-the-art GCMs in measured more objectively. For low clouds. models simulating less than a quarter of observed they report that “these deficiencies result in an middle clouds. “to the overwhelming L’Ecuyer and Stephens (2007) used multi-sensor variety of clouds observed in the atmosphere.” realism.” January 1998 through December 1999.” In fact. and cannot be said to rest on the less-thanclimate models in simulating cloud-related processes. In addition.” The main conclusions of The work of 20 climate modelers involved in this this study.. and which therefore International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project could have readily refuted their assessment of the (ISCCP) and the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy situation if they felt that such was appropriate.” which discrepancies are the models simulated optically thick clouds more than to be compared with a radiative forcing of only a twice as frequently as was found to be the case in the couple of Wm-2 for a 300 ppm increase in the satellite observations. First. with some amount are overpredicted by most models. And in the case of individual cloud types.” To show that the basis for this conclusion is In an effort to assess the status of state-of-the-art robust. (2004) report that “simulations available from 1983 to 2001. were that “(1) exercise reveals a huge list of major model almost all models strongly underpredicted both cloud imperfections. according to Siebesma et al. they conclude that through repeated critical evaluate the sensitivity of atmospheric heating—and evaluations of the type they conducted. when the trade-wind regions and in the intertropical stratified in optical thickness ranges. in order to Hence. while the grand mean of all atmosphere’s CO2 concentration. we report the results of additional climatologies derived from 10 atmospheric GCMs studies of the subject that were published subsequent with satellite measurements obtained from the to the analysis of Randall et al. enthusiastic remarks of a handful of exasperated Zhang et al. also found “the a result of these and other observations. “the scientific the factors that modify it—to changes in east-west sea community will be forced to develop further surface temperature gradients associated with the physically sound parameterizations that ultimately 19 .. but observations of visible. representation of clouds in general-circulation models conclude that “much more needs to be done to fully remains one of the most important as yet unresolved understand the physical causes of model cloud biases [our italics] issues in atmospheric modeling. the discrepancies in the outgoing long-wave radiation are group of researchers reports that “differences of most pronounced in the ITCZ. while data from the with nine large-scale models [were] carried out for CERES program were available for the winter months June/July/August 1998 and the quality of the results of 2001 and 2002 and for the summer months of 2000 [was] assessed along a cross-section in the subtropical and 2001. The purpose of their analysis was two-fold: and tropical North Pacific ranging from (235°E. and microwave even more so due to the large number of physical radiance obtained from the Tropical Rainfall processes governing cloud formation and evolution as Measuring Mission satellite for the period from well as the great complexity of their interactions. Furthermore.” partially due. 1°S). they models simulated about 80 percent of optically state that “similar biases for the short-wave radiation intermediate clouds and 60 percent of optically thin were found at the top of the atmosphere. the majority of convergence zone (ITCZ). Zhang et al.” This is presented here and to improve the models.5°E. while clouds. such that the grand radiation of typically 60 Wm-2 in the stratocumulus mean of low clouds from all models was only 70 to regimes and a similar underprediction of 60 Wm-2 in 80 percent of what was observed. and (2) to reveal serious modeling the first-order characteristics of subtropical deficiencies in the models so as to improve them. they continue.. Zhang et al. measurements can reach several hundred percent. and that while (2) the situation is opposite in the trade-wind the majority of the models simulated only 30 to 40 region and the tropics where cloud cover and cloud percent of the observed middle clouds.” As hailing from nine different countries. they report that half overprediction of the downwelling surface short-wave the models underestimated them. (1) to assess the current status of climate models in 35°N) to (187. ISCCP data were Siebesma et al.

2007). warm sea surface temperatures. implying distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than errors in total cloudiness. precipitation.” The are key factors in predicting the future climate. Alabama “have become one of the primary tools to develop the then point out that computer models typically assume physical parameterizations of moist and other that if the causes of internal sources of variability (X subgrid-scale processes in global circulation and terms) are uncorrelated to surface temperature climate models.” noting that “the sensitivity of deep change (e. then they will not affect the accuracy of used in place of traditional cloud parameterizations in regressions used to estimate the relationship between such models. (2) “the GCE 1998 El Niño event..” They also found that “the model produces excessive condensed water loading in intermodel variability in the responses of the column. This protocol. 2006. radiative flux changes and surface temperature (T).. Cess et al. perturbations has been limited by large uncertainties (2007) state that “clouds and precipitation play key regarding how clouds and other elements of the roles in linking the earth’s energy cycle and water climate system feed back to surface temperature cycles. the nine scientists compared the cloud and expressed by the simulations of nine general precipitation properties observed from the Clouds and circulation models of the atmosphere that were the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and utilized in the IPCC’s most recent Fourth Assessment Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Report. Spencer et al. a study by Spencer and climate. indicating that the model’s relative frequency of occurrence of high and low cloud field is insufficient in area extent”. they reported that “many models (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total also misrepresent the radiative impacts of clouds in cloud fraction”.g. (6) “the clouds.” and that CRMs could someday be changes. convective cloud systems and their associated 1990. In this regard. 1993. the authors note that “CRMs still But “while it is true that the processes that cause the need parameterizations on scales smaller than their X terms are... and in summation. in their words. the two researchers from Colorado State conditions because of the large amounts of slowly University’s Department of Atmospheric Science falling snow and graupel that are simulated”. especially the amount of graupel as precipitation.Climate Change Reconsidered    deficiencies. Senior and Mitchell.” Braswell (2008) observed that “our understanding of In another recent paper. model also cannot simulate the bright band and the implying an inherent lack of predictive capability in sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing the ensemble with regard to the response of the mean level in stratiform rain as seen from PR”. (3) “the often larger than the intrinsic ENSO signal itself.” To help stimulate progress in these strong 1998 El Niño event in the tropical Pacific. and regional (GCE) model during the South China Sea Monsoon energy budgets in the east and west Pacific are Experiment (SCSMEX) field campaign of 18 May-18 observed to respond to the eastward migration of June 1998. between model and observations exist in the rain clouds. 1984. not very efficient in stratiform rain findings.” The authors report that: (1) “the GCE rainfall Results indicated that “a majority of the models spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains examined do not reproduce the apparent westward than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM transport of energy in the equatorial Pacific during the Microwave Imager) observations”. cloud thickness. and the CERES observations. and conclude that “deficiencies remain in the finally. and precipitation in current climate models. (4) “the zonal atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific to model has much higher domain-averaged OLR ENSO. “provides a instruments against simulations obtained from the natural example of a short-term climate change three-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble scenario in which clouds. total heating. and vertical motion is indicated by both TMI and PR observations”.” ignored when interpreting their predictions of future Even more recently.” They two scientists from the Earth System Science Center also report that cloud resolving models or CRMs at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.” In addition.” spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that and they say that these deficiencies “cannot be contribute to the associated cloud field. 2005.. Webster and Stephens. (5) “the model has a more skewed both regions [the east and west Pacific]. Zhou et al. as areas.” As a result of these much-less-than-adequate GCE is . precipitation efficiency in response to climate change Soden and Held. this one published in the how sensitive the climate system is to radiative Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. (7) “large differences representation of relationships between radiation. Stephens. by [Forster and Gregory (2006)] grid resolutions and have many known and unknown 20 .

relevant to those forcings cannot be uncorrelated to T – for the such problems as anthropogenic climate change. 1990.” causes and processes of global warming is still the authors write. in a few more decades. climatic response to the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content. “it 21 . are biased in the positive direction. according to Randall et al.” but only with one might expect from stochastic variations in low the proviso that the IPCC should admit it is truly cloud cover.P.” Of course. the response of T to perform century-scale climate simulations.” simple reason that it is a radiative forcing that causes A few more decades. say that an flux variability contaminate feedback estimates?” approach that could be used very soon (to possibly Spencer and Braswell use a “very simple timedetermine whether or not there even is a problem) is dependent model of temperature deviations away to “run a CSRM as a ‘superparameterization’ inside a from an equilibrium state” to estimate the effects of GCM.” In other words. the scientific debate over the radiative flux noise was increased. such as those scientific progress.W. M. et al. J. can be found at http://www. Oceanic phytoplankton. and placed in what it currently suggests about earth’s subject/m/inadeqclouds. including merely done to indicate that the climate modeling reviews of newer publications as they become enterprise is not yet at the stage where faith should be available. This in reliable theoretical models.php.” They ask “to wait to address an issue that nations of the world are what degree could nonfeedback sources of radiative confronting now. We believe. Lovelock.J. The cloud parameterization problem by still have a long way to go before they are ready to itself is so complex that no one can validly claim that properly assess the roles of various types of clouds humanity’s continued utilization of fossil-fuel energy and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of will result in massive counter-productive climatic earth’s climate in response to variations in changes. however.” which configuration they call a “super“daily random fluctuations in an unknown GCM. Journal of Geophysical Research 95: domains large enough to encompass many clouds 16601-16615. Climate models currently do not possibly other feedbacks – could be significantly provide a reliable scientific basis for implementing biased in the positive direction. raising the possibility an expensive and likely futile attempt to alter the that current observational estimates of cloud feedback course of future climate. Andrea. these improvements mean that “the computational cost of Charlson. “current knowledge of many aspects of earth’s climate system observational diagnoses of cloud feedback – and is sadly deficient. according to Randall et al.E.. Randall et al. “have resolutions fine enough to Cess. in Ayers. R. Intercomparison and interpretation represent individual cloud elements. “that all model errors for runs ongoing and there is no scientific case for consistent with satellite-observed variability are in the governments to regulate greenhouse gas emissions in direction of positive feedback. 1987. Journal of Sea models or SCMs that can be “surgically extracted Research 43: 275-286. atmospheric sulfur.. which can be compared with single-column climate and atmospheric chemistry.” Nevertheless.O. expected question of CO2-induced “anthropogenic climate feedback value of the radiative forcing. uncorrelated to T. it is clear that CRMs emissions.” In other words.” programs designed to restrict anthropogenic CO2 In light of these findings. Hence.” Repeated runs of the model found the needed in order to obtain a definitive answer to the diagnosed feedback departed from the true.. it is Additional information on this topic. G.. we say “go for it. running a CSRM is hundreds or thousands of times S. DMS and its oxidation something called “cloud system-resolving models” or products in the remote marine atmosphere: implications for CSRMs. Nature 326: 655-661. is a little long to changes in T [italics in the original]. with the difference increasing as the amount of nonfeedback change. R.D. as they describe them. The hope of the climate-modeling community of References tomorrow resides. from their host GCMs. R.co2science. and Gillett. evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs. that our as the authors say in their abstract. over many cloud lifetimes.Global Climate Models and Their Limitations    will become possible to use such global CSRMs to definition. with Randall et al.” Not wanting to be accused of impeding nonfeedback radiative source term N. There is no justification for that conclusion anthropogenic and background forcings.G. 2000.” These advanced models. cloud albedo and climate. greater than that of running an SCM. “It is significant. and space-time of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models.

L. M. Muller.Y. 2000. and Hartmann. Siebesma. and Iacobellis. 2000. M. The tropical atmospheric energy budget from the TRMM perspective.D. Breaking the cloud parameterization 22 deadlock.-D.Climate Change Reconsidered    Chou. J.J. Shie.J. Y. 1990. J. doi:10. Cavalli. Gordon. R. S. (Ed.G.L.E. X. P. M. J.J. D. Grenier. Lenderink..W. and Michelsen.. S. 2007. A. Rosati. and Held. In Houghton. M. Science 288: 1991-1997.A. W. Chou.M..R. G. Olson. Decesari.. 2002.. W. P. Grassl.. Calvo. Journal of Climate 20: 4548-4571. C. and Putaud. An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. 2006. Idso. Y. Mircea. P. N. Teixeira. B. Cloud representation in general-circulation models over the northern Pacific Ocean: A EUROCS intercomparison study. Forster.. U. Zhou.-D. Kitagawa. van Meijgaard. A.4. W.Potential biases in feedback diagnosis from observational data: A simple model demonstration. Hartmann.Ya. Lock. D..P. Senior. P. Bacmeister. G. and Hou. R. Chlond.A.. Journal of Climate 19: 3354-3360. Neggers.C. C.. S. 2006. M. Journal of Geophysical Research 110: D15S02... Spencer. Suarez. F. Does the earth have an adaptive infrared iris? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82: 417-432. F. J. Fuzzi. Webb. Use of high-resolution satellite observations to evaluate cloud and precipitation statistics from cloud-resolving model simulations. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L15707. A. 1993.A. Nature 431: 676-680. Tao. Loeb. and Severijns. 2004. Stephens. I. Arakawa.. T..Y. A. Lane. R. P.. C.-S. Stier. 2007. Somerville. Chou. Journal of Climate 21: 5624-5628. Marquet. D. J. Journal of Climate 13: 1858-1878. S.D. H.1029/2004 JD005021. Lindzen. Musat..C. K. M.S. 2000. Q. 2001. Lindzen.. Baker. Jakob. D. Facchini.D. Bradley.. I. Lohmann...J. 2002.M.-P. A. A. and Braswell. O’Dowd. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84: 1547-1564.T. R.H. Lin.E.T. Soden. Fu. M.-D. J. 2005..S. Journal of Climate 18: 237-273. Kohler... Cambridge University Press. 2000. Biogenically driven organic contribution to marine aerosol. C. 63-78. Xie.F.-M. and Grecu. R...L..L. Pincus. 1.) The Global Climate. Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from coupled climate model integrations.-K. W. D. S..L. Status and improvements of coupled general circulation models.. Minnis. W. R. J. and Grabowski. Wu... Grabowski. Part II: Evaluating GCM representations of the sensitivity of regional energy and water cycles to the 1998-99 ENSO cycle. C.. and Mitchell. CO2 and climate: The impact of cloud parameterization.. K.B. P.. Bony. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 64: 43094329. Christy...P.. Journal of Climate 6: 393-418. Webster..J..S. Ceburnis.. Klein. R. M. doi:10. E.1029/2007GLO296998. Journal of Climate 13: 2306-2322.L.Y. 1984. G. Jones... L’Ecuyer. Tropical sensitivity of a coupled model to specified ISCCP low clouds.S. H.Y. Contemporary Physics 41: 309-322. Journal of Climate 13: 915922. Part I: South China Sea monsoon experiment. Spencer. R. G. C. Cloud-radiation feedback and the climate problem. and Hnilo. Del Genio. M.. Groisman..W. R. M. 2005.H.J.. Journal of Climate 19: 6181-6194. Cloud microphysics and the tropical climate: Cloud-resolving model perspective. C. 2008... A role for soil microbes in moderating the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect? Soil Science 149: 179180.P. The relationship of cloud cover to near-surface temperature and humidity: Comparison of GCM simulations with empirical data.. and Stephens. W. Yao.F. M. J. and Yang.C. and Gudgel.. Harries. Reply to: “Tropical cirrus and water vapor: an effective Earth infrared iris feedback?” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2: 99-101. Cederwall. Hack.T. S. A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83: 249-254. Sensitivity of cloud and radiation parameterizations to changes in vertical resolution. Braswell. Olmeda. 2004. A. 2000. W.. J.. B..B. J.L. Comparing clouds and their seasonal variations in 10 atmospheric general circulation models with satellite measurements.S. Cloud and radiation budget changes associated with tropical intraseasonal oscillations. J. D.E. Journal of Climate 13: 2239-2260. Tropical cirrus and water vapor: an effective Earth infrared iris feedback? Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2: 31-37... Physics of the earth’s radiative energy balance. Yoon. 2007. A. Clouds feedbacks in the climate system: A critical review. Precipitation One of the predictions of atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) is that the planet’s . M. H.. S.J. M... Lau. No evidence for IRIS. and Hou. R. Randall.B. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 130: 3245-3267. Hou. 2002. and Sun. and Stephens.W. J. Khairoutdinov..D.. and Taylor. Lin. Zhang. M. 2000.J. 2003.

Gadgil et spatial biases that led to significant differences al. the characteristics had not improved since the very first seasonal cycle of precipitation was not well versions of the models were applied to the task some simulated. leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity Woodhouse found “the twentieth century is of extreme precipitation events. In addition.” and she reports that “the twentieth century frequency of extreme rainfall events may increase in also contains the lowest percent of extreme low SWE the tropics.” unusual about the SWE record of the twentieth Lau et al.” year of the period 1569-1999 for the drainage basin of And as with the empirical models. it was anomaly. and spatial GCMs and a supposedly superior coupled resolution was much too coarse. she analyzed the reconstructed SWE data monsoon with a much higher-resolution GCM. (2000) compared Two years later. In characteristics of snowpack variability is useful for addition. models also frequently failed to correctly capture because “an understanding of the long-term even the sign of the observed rainfall anomalies. as it typically correctly predict even the sign of the precipitation predicted too much precipitation. Furthermore. rainfall events will be more intense. The empirical models Gadgil et rainy season began too early and that the increase in al. the models often failed to simulate convective rainfall events.” the subject. Walsh and Pittock (1998) reported “there Specifically. which the IPCC claims experienced a the 1970s-’90s to provide “an ideal test bed for 23 . frequently predicting excess rainfall when found that “interannual variability [was] seriously drought occurred and drought when excess rainfall disturbed in the GCM as compared to what it [was] in was received. the observations. as the researchers found that the simulated seven decades earlier.” or no extreme years. Lebel et al. they were years.” As for why the GCM performed so The dynamical models fared even worse. little confidence can be placed in any during a period of global warming that is said to have definite predictions of such effects. rainfall totals. In addition. atmosphere-ocean model. The simulated models forecast skill over the period 1932-2004. in a century is notable for several periods that contain few warmer climate. the dynamical the Gunnison River of western Colorado. reported that Three years later. In an early review of notable for several periods that lack extreme years. Woodhouse (2003) generated a not a single one of those many models was able “to tree-ring-based history of snow water equivalent simulate correctly the interannual variation of the (SWE) characteristic of the first day of April for each summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region.” These results are in direct contradiction of forced to conclude that “because of the insufficient what GCMs typically predict should occur in resolution of climate models and their generally crude response to global warming. USA.” Upon further study. Their analysis revealed that the model by any of the empirical or dynamical models output was affected by a number of temporal and regularly used in making rainfall forecasts. exceeding realunderstanding of monsoon variability. millennia. but its in such a way as to determine if there was anything output also proved to be “not realistic. In poorly in these several respects. they found the world values by 25 percent during the dry season and models’ skill in forecasting the Indian monsoon’s 75 percent during the rainy season. for example.Global Climate Models and Their Limitations    warming that was unprecedented over the past two hydrologic cycle will intensify as the world warms. Shortcomings monsoon rainfall measurements and model were also evident in the GCM’s inability to accurately predictions. she determined that “the twentieth is some evidence from climate model studies that.” been the most significant of the past 20 centuries. however. for both low and high SWE and that “there is considerable evidence that the extremes. were significantly greater Despite model advancements and an ever-improving than what was typically observed. (2005) performed a historical analysis of the between observed and modeled data. Gadgil et al. gave two comparing observed monsoon rainfall totals with main reasons: parameterization of rainfall processes simulated values obtained from 20 state-of-the-art in the GCM was much too simple. evaluated generated large differences between precipitation was not rapid enough. Lebel et al. Their failure in this representation of sub-grid scale and convective regard is especially damning because it occurred processes. and as a result of the fact that the rainfall simulations produced by a GCM with real2004 summer monsoon season of India experienced a world observations from West Africa for the period 13 percent precipitation deficit that was not predicted 1960-1990. (2006) considered the Sahel drought of century. Then. Two years later. the researchers report that Brankovic and guiding expectations for future variability.” as she Molteni (2004) attempted to model the Indian phrased it.

they derived a real-world increase in circulation models] in simulating long-term drought. The precipitation on the order of 1 to 3 percent per °C of precipitation data for this analysis came from the surface global warming.” especially in the case of the descending derived precipitation trends for earth’s continents. surface temperature coupling and land surface How was this huge discrepancy to be resolved? processes in producing the Sahel drought in CGCMs Wentz et al. regions.” but that “these period. predicted an increase in to 16 state-of-the-art climate models. in their words. in their observed drought period.” In addition. Wentz et al. described by Wentz et al. they should have been accompanied by a decrease in report that “even the model with the highest skill for winds on the order of 0. and four models show no words. that “only eight models produce percent) decade-1. which is somewhere between coupled atmosphere-ocean-land processes and their 2. the climate scientists found.” They also observe All 19 of the CGCMs employed in the IPCC’s Fourth that this dramatic difference between the real world of Assessment Report. in other words.08 m s-1 (1.0 times larger than what is predicted by interactions. for the tropics “the GPCP 24 . precipitation on the order of 7 percent per °C of and the veracity of the models’ representation of surface global warming. long-term variation in solar radiation. the two results anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases and were about as opposite as they could possibly be. noted that the Coupled Model compared their results with simulations of the present Intercomparison Project. reason for the discrepancy between the observational nor the beginning time and duration of the events. (2003) and the Climate Prediction Center prior 19 years (1987-2006) of supposedly Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data of Xie unprecedented global warming. they century. including wind speeds. More specifically. while for Global Historical Climatology Network and satellite the period 1987-2006 they came from the monthly measurements of the lower troposphere indicated mean intercalibrated Version 6 Special Sensor there had been a global temperature rise on the order Microwave Imager (SSM/I) precipitation data of 0. “predict that the 1987-to-2006 warming significant deviation from normal.Climate Change Reconsidered    Appropriately combining the results of these two evaluating the capability of CGCMs [coupled general endeavors. (2007). the four rising precipitation trends in the ascending regions Remote Sensing Systems scientists derived and decreasing trends in the descending regions are precipitation trends for the world’s oceans over this detected in the observational datasets.” the past century—as defined by its start date. severity Allan and Soden (2007) quantified trends in and duration.” data and the GCMs is not clear. which the 19 CGCMs “are driven by combinations of they found just the opposite. the winds increased by 0. failed to nature and the virtual world of climate modeling “has adequately simulate the basic characteristics of “one enormous impact” and the questions raised by the of the most pronounced signals of climate change” of discrepancy “are far from being settled. and using data obtained from the Global trends are substantially larger in magnitude than Precipitation Climatology Project that were acquired present-day simulations and projections into the 21st from both satellite and rain gauge measurements. In quantitative terms.04 m s-1 (0.” precipitation within ascending and descending Wentz et al. say “the trend of severe drought events but not the magnitude. an increase in global realistic prescribed external forcing.” They chose to “explore the roles of sea state-of-the-art climate models. They decided to see what Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) of had happened in the real world in this regard over the Adler et al. (2007). Using satellite observations obtained from the The researchers reported “an emerging signal of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). But when Climate Change [IPCC] Assessment Report 4.20°C per decade.” while global produce excessive rainfall over [the] Sahel during the coupled ocean-atmosphere models or GCMs. as well as various climate day and projections of future changes provided by up modeling analyses.” in looking at the past 19 years of SSM/I wind retrievals. when data from the and Arkin (1998) for the period 1979-2006. they report that “when averaged over the tropics from and volcanic eruptions. concluded that the only way to bring the that participated in the twentieth-century coupled two results into harmony was for there to have been a climate simulations of the Intergovernmental Panel on 19-year decline in global wind speeds.” the Sahel drought could only simulate the increasing In discussing these results.8 percent decade-1. as sulfate aerosols. and over all oceans the increase a reasonable Sahel drought signal. in a study published in branches of the planet’s tropical circulation and Science.6 In performing this analysis.” 30°S to 30°N. seven models was 0.0 percent) decade-1.3 and 7.

Schneider. Xie. tropical mean climate by the climate models is a In conclusion. U. The scientific literature is filled with produce a double-intertropical convergence zone studies documenting the inability of even the most (ITCZ) pattern. R. including together with concurrent Atmospheric Model reviews of newer publications as they become Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs from 12 of available. 2003.” which suggests that “the than model simulations over the 20th century (Zhang excessive tropical precipitation is an intrinsic error of et them.” ensemble mean trend. Bolvin. [latent heat flux]. Southern Hemisphere SPCZ [South Pacific Janowiak. Arkin.. in spite of the billions of dollars prerequisite for their good simulations/predictions of spent by the United States alone on developing and tropical variabilities and global teleconnections. that “most subject/p/precipmodelinadeq.. in Lin’s words. 2007).J. Additional information on this topic. Adler.. precipitation changes over land also appear larger and insufficient SWF. Maritime Continent.” and further.. (2007). and precipitation. that “the AMIP runs evaporation over the ocean are substantially greater also produce excessive precipitation over much of the than those simulated by climate models. the tropical mean climate has not been correctly simulate even the largest and most well simulated by the coupled general circulation regionally-important of earth’s atmospheric models (CGCMs) used for climate predictions and phenomena—the tropical Indian monsoon—hasn’t projections.” noting that “most of the CGCMs improved at all. and D.. of the current state-of-the-art CGCMs have some degree of the double-ITCZ problem... Huffman. and Nelkin.” Lin (2007) states that “a good simulation of considered reliable.” (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). P.. J. Northern Hemisphere ITCZ. Noting that the difference between the models Lin adds that “over the eastern Pacific stratus region. Ferraro. A. P. A.Global Climate Models and Their Limitations    flux]. G. Chang. and they too stated that future climate. excessive LHF Journal of Hydrometeorology 4: 1147-1167. equatorial Indian Ocean).” What is Tropics including the equatorial Pacific.” And if that is not enough. 2007) and also supported by also simulate insufficient latitudinal asymmetry in the analysis of Yu and Weller (2007).” This same dilemma was also prerequisites for “good simulations/predictions” of faced by Wentz et al. Convergence Zone].F.” explained by changes in the reanalysis fields used to With the solutions to all of these long-standing subsample the observations but instead must relate to problems continuing to remain “elusive. Curtis. Lin analyzed tropical mean climate regulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas simulations of the 20-year period 1979-99 provided emissions.g.. Failure to model any one of To explore the nature of this problem in greater these elements would be grounds for rejecting claims depth.” who precipitation and SST over the eastern Pacific and additionally contend that “observed increases of Atlantic Oceans.” feedback associated with insufficient sensitivity of Allan and Soden say “the discrepancy cannot be stratus cloud amount to SST. and real-world measurements “has important most of the models produce insufficient stratus-SST implications for future predictions of climate change. view of the double-ITCZ problem is still elusive. R.co2science. consistent with previous The authors further note that “most of the models findings (Wentz et al... S. B. leading to significant cold SST (sea surface trend is about 2-3 times larger than the model temperature) bias in much of the tropical oceans. J.” the atmospheric models. This work revealed. and in hope of making some progress in that the IPCC provides the evidence needed to justify resolving it. Gruber.” clouds. the models’ ability to “unfortunately. E. Allan and Soden note that “observed leads to overly strong trade winds.” but improving climate models.” and with errors in the satellite data or in the model Lin suggesting that the sought-for solutions are in fact parameterizations.. can be found at http://www.” and acknowledging that “a synthetic advanced GCMs to accurately model radiation. excessive LHF. which is characterized by excessive precipitation over much of References the Tropics (e. which also more. Susskind. there is significant reason to conclude the resolution of the issue “has enormous impact” and that current state-of-the-art CGCM predictions of likewise concluded that the questions raised by the CO2-induced global warming should not be discrepancy “are far from being settled..php. by 22 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report CGCMs. and often associated with The version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project insufficient precipitation over the equatorial Pacific. and insufficient SWF [shortwave 25 . as well as “overly strong trade winds. Rudolf.

-M.P.A. C.P. H. and Weller. and Nanjundiah. 2007. L. Xie. S.J. Seasonal climate and variability of the ECMWF ERA-40 model.. Brankovic. Zhang. Wentz. Solomon.C. Delclaux. Shen. Objectively analyzed air-sea heat fluxes for the global ice-free oceans (1981-2005). Potential changes in tropical storms. Kim.P. T. Ricciardulli. and Polcher.. R... 2000. R.B. F. and Wang. Zwiers. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 14: 275-295. Gillett.J. Large discrepancy between observed and simulated precipitation trends in the ascending and descending branches of the tropical circulation. 2007. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: 10.. Climate Dynamics 22: 139-155. R. Nature 448: 461-465. B. and Pittock. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88: 527539. 2005.Climate Change Reconsidered    Allan. 26 .. P.1029/2007GL031460. Journal of Climate 16: 1551-1561. 2007. From GCM scales to hydrological scales: rainfall variability in West Africa. P.. N. and Mears. 2004. 2007.. Yu. A. P. L. K. C. 1998. F. C. 2003. J. Walsh. F. K. S.A. How much more rain will global warming bring? Science 317: 233-235. and Nozawa. Hegerl. Hilburn... The double-ITCZ problem in IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs: Ocean-atmosphere feedback analysis. Monsoon prediction—Why yet another failure? Current Science 88: 1389-1400. Global monthly precipitation estimates from satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation.. X. F.1029/2005JD006281. and extreme rainfall events as a result of climate change. Geophysical Research Letters 34: 10. Lebel.A.W. Le Barbé. K. 2006.-L.M. Woodhouse. 1998. 2007. Lambert. A 431-yr reconstruction of western Colorado snowpack from tree rings. J. and Arkin. Journal of Climate 11: 137-164. Stott.. G.H. T. S. A multimodel study of the twentieth-century simulations of Sahel drought from the 1970s to 1990s. L. M. Climatic Change 39: 199-213. hurricanes. Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends.S. F. Lau. and Molteni. Lin. and Soden.. Gadgil.A. Rajeevan. K. Journal of Climate 20: 4497-4525.

Diffuse Light 2.co2science. Cambridge. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. at which point the cloud cover reduces the amount of solar radiation received at the surface of the sea.. 2. Clouds Based on data obtained from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere—Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment. K.) Cambridge University Press. Aerosols Introduction According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).000 years [italics in the original]” (IPCC. M. Solomon. This chapter reviews those feedbacks most often mentioned in the scientific literature.7.6.35] W m-2.3. UK. and nitrous oxide is +2.5.4. D. some of which have the ability to totally offset the radiative forcing expected from the rise in atmospheric CO2.07 to +2. p. The IPCC calculates that this sensitivity of earth’s climate system to greenhouse gases (GHG) means that if CO2 concentrations were to double. Clouds 2. _f. Chen.1. This “thermostat-like control. Sud et al. Iodocompounds 2. including reviews of feedback factors not discussed here. Miller. Qin. “the combined radiative forcing due to increases in carbon dioxide.B. Additional information on this topic.2. (1999) demonstrated that deep convection in the tropics acts as a thermostat to keep sea surface temperature (SST) oscillating between approximately 28° and 30°C. methane. 2007-I. Carbonyl Sulfide 2. the cloud-base airmass is charged with the moist static energy needed for clouds to reach the upper troposphere. References IPCC. Methane 2. Averyt. S.8. Many scientific studies suggest this modelderived sensitivity is too large and feedbacks in the climate system reduce it to values that are an order of magnitude smaller. Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing 2. Their analysis suggests that as SSTs reach 28°-29°C. Nitrous Oxide 2.30 [+2. while cool and dry downdrafts promote ocean surface cooling by increasing sensible and latent heat fluxes there.1. and is very unlikely to be less than 1.L. p. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 12). Tignor and H. Z. M. 3).php under the heading Feedback Factors. 2007-I. the rise in global average surface temperature “is likely to be in the range 2°C to 4. (Eds.” as Sud et al. describe it.” The phenomenon would 27 .. Manning. tends “to ventilate the tropical ocean efficiently and help contain the SST between 28°-30°C. can be found at http://www. Marquis.  2   Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing   2. Dimethyl Sulfide 2. and its rate of increase during the industrial era is very likely to have been unprecedented in more than 10.5°C [italics in the original]” (Ibid.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C.

D. can be found at http://www. which for IRIS.L. Journal of Climate 12: 2128-2134. R. (coastal southwest.” The feedback? Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2: 31-37. Rosenfeld also demonstrated that the clouds degree C increase in the SST of the cloudy region. 1999. Lindzen et al. and industrial complexes in Turkey. Reply to: 0. these smaller droplets will effectively permit infrared cooling. (2002). Canada. to which Rosenfeld gave the name coverage normalized by a measure of the area of pollution tracks in view of their similarity to ship cumulus coverage decreases about 22 percent per tracks. over the period 1900subject/f/feedbackcloud. (2001) used upper-level cloudiness emissions of particulates that redistribute cloud-water data obtained from the Japanese Geostationary into larger numbers of smaller droplets that do not Meteorological Satellite and SST data obtained from rain out of the atmosphere as readily as they would in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction to the absence of this phenomenon. 2002. coastal northeast. Visualizations derive a strong inverse relationship between upperproduced from the mission data clearly revealed the level cloud area and the mean SST of cloudy regions existence of enhanced cloud trails downwind of urban of the eastern part of the western Pacific (30°S-30°N. trends show that there have been increases in reflectivity (cloudiness) poleward of 40°N and 30°S. Hence. As Toon (2000) noted in a regions free of upper-level clouds. were subsequently tend to cool the globe. and Hameed. 2002.D. and 130°E-170°W).-D. there appear to be a number of but Lindzen and his colleagues are not the only cloud-mediated processes that help the planet “keep scientists who believe the cooling effect of clouds has its cool. the wakes of ships at sea as a consequence of their Lindzen et al. with mean cloud cover rising from an initial value of 35 percent to a final value of 47 References percent as the mean global air temperature rose by Chou.. (2001) used Total Ozone Mapping infrared iris feedback?” Atmospheric Chemistry and Spectrometer 380-nm reflectivity data to determine Physics 2: 99-101. changes in radiation reflected back to space over the period 1979 to 1992. the zonally averaged annual linear-fit Case studies for three regions of the United States. “Tropical cirrus and water vapor: an effective Earth Herman et al.php. say “the droplets of reduced size that did indeed suppress cloudy-moist region appears to act as an infrared precipitation by inhibiting further coalescence and ice adaptive iris that opens up and closes down the precipitation formation.Y. such that the area of cirrus cloud Australia.. finding that “when the 11. which more commentary on this study. both of which effects The findings of Lindzen et al. The debate over the infrared man’s aerosol-producing activities tend to do the adaptive iris still rages in the scientific community. (1999) used land-based observations reviews of newer publications as they become of cloud cover for three regions of the United States available. and Hou. Q. M. M. Cess. (2002).8 Wm-2 per decade. and Michelsen. an exchange that is summarized in a natural brake upon the rising temperature. in such a manner not “rain out” as quickly and will therefore last longer as to resist changes in tropical surface temperature. 83: 249-254. and southern plains) to demonstrate that. In comprising these pollution tracks were composed of describing this phenomenon. criticized by Hartmann and Michelsen (2002) and Fu In summation.2 of this report. were rebutted by has a tendency to become more cloudy. cloud cover had a high correlation with global air temperature. Tropical with some smaller but significant changes occurring cirrus and water vapor: an effective Earth infrared iris in the equatorial and lower middle latitudes.” been underestimated.Climate Change Reconsidered    Rosenfeld (2000) used satellite data obtained also be expected to prevent SSTs from rising any from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission to look higher in response to enhanced CO2-induced radiative for terrestrial analogues of the cloud trails that form in forcing. M.L. S. 28 . the atmosphere et al.” and cover more of the earth. 2002. Additional information on this topic.S..5°C.co2science. which exerts Chou et al.3-year Croke. and Hartmann. No evidence reflected back to space of 2. same thing. Lindzen. R.L. Many of Section 1. Baker. including Croke et al. overall long-term effect was an increase in radiation Hartmann. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society represents a large cloud-induced cooling influence. Fu. as the earth warms. and then Fu et al. M. 1987.S. Regional solar-cycle and ENSO effects are removed from the cloud cover change associated with global climate change: time series. A.

D.2. R. Science 287: 1793-1796. 1994). Chou.) On the basis of experiments that showed soil DMS emissions to be positively correlated with soil organic matter content. Idso hypothesized that because atmospheric CO2 enrichment augments plant growth and. another biologically produced sulfur gas that is emitted from soils. and Hou. clouds. which must have increased substantially over the past three centuries. ocean-surface OCS concentrations were demonstrated by Andreae and Ferek (1992) to be highly correlated with surface-water primary productivity. noting that it too is likely to be emitted in increasingly greater quantities as earth’s vegetation responds to the aerial fertilization effect of the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content. Y. Hence. M. He consequently concluded that the CO2-induced augmentation of soil OCS emissions constitutes a mechanism that can cool the planet’s surface (1) in the absence of an impetus for warming. 1999. a large portion of which must have ultimately been derived from the products and byproducts of marine photosynthetic activity. from a mean value of 373 ppt over the period 1616-1694 to something on the order of 485 ppt today. Rosenfeld..Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing    Herman. and that it too possesses a warming-induced component in addition to its CO2-induced component.Y. Walker. Lindzen. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 5353-5368. (2) without producing additional clouds or (3) making them any brighter. where it is transformed into solar-radiation-reflecting sulfate aerosol particles.S. 2000.7. even in the absence of the surface warming that sets in motion the chain of events that produce the oceanic DMS-induced negative feedback that tends to cool the planet. where it could exert a cooling influence on the earth and that may have kept the warming of the globe considerably below what it might otherwise have been in the absence of this chain of events.. the majority of the tropospheric burden of OCS is ultimately dependent upon photosynthetic activity occurring near the surface of the world’s oceans. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 1019-1022.W. Celarier. Toon. 2002)—undergo photochemical oxidation (Khalil and Rasmussen. In a study contemporary with that of Idso (1992). So strong is this correlation. Science 287: 1763-1765. G. 2. vegetative inputs of organic matter to earth’s soils. but that it eventually makes its way into the stratosphere. Idso (1992) expanded this concept to include carbonyl sulfide (OCS). J. while pointing out that OCS is relatively inert in the troposphere. 2001.. 1984. and Aydin et al. A solid case can be made for the proposition that both the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the increase in temperature experienced over this period were the driving forces for the concomitant increase in tropospheric OCS concentration and its likely subsequent transport to the stratosphere. Changes in the Earth’s UV reflectivity from the surface. 29 . Two years later. (2002) note that only a fourth of it can be attributed to anthropogenic sources. Does the earth have an adaptive infrared iris? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82: 417-432. Consequently..-M. and aerosols. the rest of the observed OCS increase must have had a natural origin. Carbonyl Sulfide Some time ago. A. How pollution suppresses rain. Mechanisms regulating sea-surface temperatures and deep convection in the tropics.C. This is important because the tropospheric OCS concentration has risen by approximately 30 percent since the 1600s.-D. Larko. J.K. Barnes et al.. 2000. as a result. What have we subsequently learned about biologically mediated increases in carbonyl sulfide emissions? One important thing is that the OCSinduced cooling mechanism also operates at sea. This is a sizeable increase. and Lau. D. that Erickson and Eaton (1993) developed an empirical model for computing ocean-surface OCS concentrations based solely on surface-water chlorophyll concentrations and values of incoming solar radiation. where carbon disulfide and dimethyl sulfide—also largely of oceanic origin (Aydin et al. this phenomenon should produce an impetus for cooling. K. 2001. and Ziemke..R. It has also been learned that an even greater portion of naturally produced OCS is created in the atmosphere. Suppression of rain and snow by urban and industrial air pollution. Sud. (See Section 2. in fact. and noting that additions of organic matter to soils tend to increase the amount of sulfur gases they emit. O. Idso (1990) suggested that the volatilization of reduced sulfur gases from earth’s soils may be just as important as dimethyl sulfide (DMS) emissions from the world’s oceans in enhancing cloud albedo and thereby cooling the planet and providing a natural brake on the tendency for anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gases to drive global warming. E. just as the DMS-induced cooling mechanism does.

And biogeochemical cycling estimates with CZCS satellite data since the consumption of OCS by lichens is under the and general circulation models.E. USA. if feedback mechanisms of the type we envision. with different biological entities Kuhn. Photochemical from approximately 3° to 25°C. Global sources. B. and Saltzman. S. carbon disulfide (CS2) in the earth’s atmosphere. periodically reversing directions in this regard in response to climate changes that push the temperatures of their respective environments either above or below the various thermal optima at which 2. 1992. rising.. can be attributed to anthropogenic study of samples of the lichen Ramalina menziesii. The first portion of this response can be explained by the fact that most terrestrial plants prefer much Aydin.O. I. including Another fascinating aspect of this multifaceted reviews of newer publications as they become global “biothermostat” was revealed in a laboratory available. any. Greater CO2-enhanced photosynthetic rates.H. we cannot be certain how much of the phenomena are themselves powerful negative warming experienced during the twentieth century. produce an impetus for it to do so. and Rasmussen.J. more OCS from the atmosphere in an attempt to promote even more warming and grow better still. The the point where warming becomes a detriment to tropospheric oxidation of DMS: a new source of OCS. they absorbed OCS from the air References at a rate that gradually doubled as air temperature rose Andreae.A. which models. while 26. I. lifetimes. 1993. Geophysical Research physiological control of carbonic anhydrase—which Letters 20: 683-686.J. W.1029/2002GL014796. for 30 . so that as their Preindustrial atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (OCS) from an Antarctic ice core. At Barnes. they reverse this course of action and Geophysical Research Letters 21: 2389-2392. Environmental variables controlling the uptake of carbonyl sulfide by tending to both increase and decrease atmospheric lichens. even when changes in other forcing factors.co2science. however.792. D. begin to rapidly reduce their rates of OCS absorption Erickson III.S. is the key enzyme for OCS uptake in all higher plants.A. there is obviously much more we need to learn about the The next negative feedback phenomenon is diffused many plant physiological mechanisms that may be light. 1992. warmer temperatures than a mere 3°C. K. Clearly. by Kuhn and Kesselmeier (2000). J. R. Global in an attempt to forestall warming-induced death.K. Geophysical Research Letters 29: surroundings warm and they grow better. which were collected from an open oak woodland in subject/c/carbonylsulfide. they extract 10. S. 1990. The first linkages is fully understand the ultimate impact of the OCS cycle the proven propensity for higher levels of atmospheric on climate. A role for soil microbes in moderating the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect? Soil Science 149: 179phenomenon to be generally operative over most of 180.783OCS concentrations at one and the same time.php. M. central California. U.B. can be found at http://www. Hence. this multifaceted phenomenon is extremely complex.Climate Change Reconsidered    Additional information on this topic.J. 2002. the earth. This being the case. and Ferek. 2000. triggered by the incremental enhancement of the State-of-the-art climate models totally neglect the atmosphere’s greenhouse effect that is produced by an biological processes we have described here. and Petroescu. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 26. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 6: 175led to zero OCS absorption at 35°C. whereupon their rate production of carbonyl sulfide in seawater and its emission of OCS absorption began a precipitous decline that to the atmosphere. and then incorporate them into the climate CO2 to enhance vegetative productivity. Until we increase in the air’s CO2 content. Diffuse Light they function best. 183. temperature of the planet may be restricted from Khalil. them. M. and mass balances of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) and such as increases in greenhouse gas concentrations..3. M. and Kesselmeier. De Bruyn. 1994. E. this thermoregulatory function of the biosphere may well be powerful enough to define Idso. R. and Eaton. Becker. algae. 1984. It operates through a chain of five linkages. and soil organisms—we could expect this Idso. involved. The DMS-cloud albedo feedback effect: an upper limit above which the surface air Greatly underestimated? Climatic Change 21: 429-433. They found that when the lichens were optimally hydrated. Atmospheric Environment 18: 1805-1813.

(1995). The fourth linkage is the ability of enhanced diffuse lighting to reduce the volume of shade within vegetative canopies. they wrote that “Hollinger et al.” and in discussing this finding. crops and tundra—which are part of an international network called FLUXNET— investigating the responses of these exchanges to variations in a number of environmental factors.” More importantly. The second linkage of the feedback loop is the ability of plants to emit gases to the atmosphere that are ultimately converted into “biosols.” In addition.. (1997). which can then result in more clouds which reflect sunlight and act to cool the planet.. while only slightly reducing the receipt of total solar radiation. the net of photosynthesis and respiration) was greater under diffuse than under direct radiation conditions.” 31 . which would also have had a tendency to cause the air’s CO2 content to rise. Fitzjarrald et al. they concluded that the Mt. which would have reduced the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 concentration that year by about 1. and more-highlyproductive. Significant support for the new negative feedback phenomenon was swift in coming. (2001) provide a good estimate based on the utilization of a unique “natural experiment. “previous and subsequent such events have been associated with increases in atmospheric CO2. as it would tend to lessen global photosynthetic activity.5 Gt of carbon from the atmosphere due to its diffuse-lightenhancing stimulation of terrestrial vegetation in the year following the eruption.) This establishes a potential for more CO2 to be removed from the atmosphere by increasing the abundance of earth’s plants and increasing their robustness. including direct and diffuse solar radiation. they also reported that “Goulden et al. (1996) showed that net carbon uptake was consistently higher during cloudy periods in a boreal coniferous forest than during sunny periods with the same PPFD [photosynthetic photon flux density].” In fact. It takes little imagination to realize that since the existence of these atmospheric particles is dependent upon the physiological activities of plants and their associated soil biota. What makes this observation even more impressive is the fact that the CO2 reduction was coincident with an El Niño event. The third linkage is the observed propensity for increases in aerosols and cloud particles to enhance the amount of diffuse solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface. and Sakai et al. enable plants to remove considerably more CO2 from the air than they do under current conditions. the observed reduction in total solar radiation received at the earth’s surface during this period would have had a tendency to reduce the amount of photosynthetically active radiation incident upon earth’s plants. many of which function as cloud condensation nuclei. aerosols that owe their existence to the biological activities of earth’s vegetation. in the words of Roderick et al. this reduction is about the magnitude of the real-world perturbation that was actually observed (Sarmiento.e. Pinatubo eruption may   well have resulted in the removal of an extra 2.. 1993). (See Chapter 7 for extensive documentation of this phenomenon. which is the centerpiece of the negative feedback phenomenon we describe. the CO2-induced presence of more. grasslands.” a technique that has been used extensively by Idso (1998) to evaluate the climatic sensitivity of the entire planet. plants will lead to the production of more of these cloud-mediating particles. Pinatubo in June 1991. Interestingly. they noted that “cloud-cover results in a greater proportion of diffuse radiation and constitutes a higher fraction of light penetrating to lower depths of the canopy (Oechel and Lawrence. which finally produces the end result: a greater biological extraction of CO2 from the air and the subsequent sequestration of its carbon. How significant is this multi-link process? Roderick et al. because. The researchers reported that “net carbon uptake (net ecosystem exchange.2 ppm.Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing  example. compliments of the intensified diffuselight-driven increase in total canopy photosynthesis and subsequent transfers of the extra fixed carbon to plant and soil storage reservoirs. 2002) that compared seasonal and annual values of CO2 and water vapor exchange across sites in forests. while CO2-induced increases in plant water use efficiency allow plants to grow where it was previously too dry for them. The fifth linkage is the tendency for less internal canopy shading to enhance whole-canopy photosynthesis. (1994) found that daily net CO2 uptake was greater on cloudy days. Roderick and his colleagues considered the volcanic eruption of Mt. 1985). Specifically.” i. Based on a set of lengthy calculations. even though total PPFD was 21-45 percent lower on cloudy days than on clear days. as the very next year a team of 33 researchers published the results of a comprehensive study (Law et al. which ejected enough gases and fine materials into the atmosphere to produce sufficient aerosol particles to greatly increase the diffuse component of the solar radiation reaching the surface of the earth from that point in time through much of 1993.

and grasslands.0 resulted in an approximate 50 percent types.0 and 0. if so.5°N.. Hence. noted that woody plants account for happens under more normal conditions. (1990). it is likely that our findings at Harvard Forest increase in net CO2 assimilation by a broadleaf represent a global phenomenon. the making them larger carbon sinks. i. the net effect is decidedly positive. 2001) together with cloudOne year later. a massive volcanic the sequestration of carbon. even though the total flux of solar agricultural crops). increased the net CO2 assimilation of trees and crops. Post et al.4 to the set of all DRF values between 0.5 percent) of the planet’s net primary production. the aerosols can “routinely influence surface irradiance propensity for the extra diffuse light created by and hence the terrestrial CO2 flux and regional carbon increased cloud cover to further enhance cycle.. soybeans.” And for these types of land-cover (forests and photosynthesis.. for example.2°W) to changes in assimilation of CO2 by three types of vegetation: trees diffuse radiation caused by Mount Pinatubo’s volcanic aerosols. in the estimation of cover. but that it decreased enhancement for canopy gross photosynthesis by the the net CO2 assimilation of grasslands.” finding that in the eruption year of (broadleaf deciduous forest and mixed forest). With respect to the planet as a discussed above the source of the enhanced whole. crops 1991. with a peak at about 50 percent cloud assimilation.” deciduous forest located in Tennessee. they concluded clearly distinguish this phenomenon from a closely that natural variability among commonly present related one that is also described by Gu et al. the gross photosynthetic rate under the perturbed Their work revealed that an aerosol-induced increase cloudless solar radiation regime was 23. note that found to be just the opposite.6 effects of diffuse radiation for a variety of vegetation and 1. Gu et al. and fully two-thirds (0. to grasslands’ significantly different Although very impressive.. Gu et al.75 x 90 percent = 67. (2003) reported that they free aerosol optical depth data from the NASA “used two independent and direct methods to examine Robotic Network (AERONET. 2001) to the photosynthetic response of a northern hardwood assess the effect of aerosol loading on the net forest (Harvard Forest.” Niyogi et al. the effect was real-world data. in addition to set of DRF values “enhances photosynthetic fluxes by likely being global in scope. Our were obtained for the mixed forest and the reason for calling attention to these two facts is to conglomerate of crops studied. Holben et al.e. making them volcanic aerosols was 21 percent in 1992. for eruption—but what we really need to know is what example. in all of the situations canopy architecture.? For a summer mid-range Rg flux of 500 “because of substantial increases in diffuse radiation Wm-2. 1993 and 3 percent in 1994. atmospheric aerosol concentration was a singular as earth’s trees are the primary planetary players in significant event—specifically.” Similar results aerosols acting under cloudless conditions. respectively. (winter wheat. 6 percent in smaller carbon sinks. due most likely.” and that “integrated over a day. In the preceding paragraph. 72. which comprises about 90 percent of year in the study of Niyogi et al. Gu et al. Based on still more In the case of grasslands. how does the variability in aerosol loading What is especially exciting about these real-world affect CO2 fluxes over different landscapes?” observations is that much of the commonly-present To answer this question. the group of 16 aerosol burden of the atmosphere is plant-derived. going from the set of all DRF values between world-wide after the eruption and strong positive 0. however.. 8.” Commenting on the How significant were the effects observed by significance of these observations. we highlighted the Averaged over the entire daylight period. they further fact that the diffuse-light-induced photosynthetic determined that the shift from the lower to the higher enhancement observed by Gu et al. that influence is to significantly radiation received at the earth’s surface may be increase the assimilation of CO2 from the atmosphere. noted that Niyogi et al. was caused by volcanic about 30 percent at this study site. 1990). and 4 in diffuse radiative-flux fraction [DRF = ratio of percent higher than that under the normal cloudless diffuse (Rd) to total or global (Rg) solar irradiance] solar radiation regime in 1992. (2004): “Can we the global total (Sellers and McCarthy. reduced under such conditions. 42.. This was the approximately 75 percent of terrestrial new and important question addressed the following photosynthesis. and corn).Climate Change Reconsidered    network (Baldocchi et al. however. USA. those detect the effect of relatively routine aerosol numbers make earth’s trees and shrubs responsible for variability on field measurements of CO2 fluxes. with greater aerosol “Harvard Forest photosynthesis also increases with loading of the atmosphere leading to less CO2 cloud cover. 1993. “around noontime in the mid-growing season. and 1994. researchers used CO2 flux data from the AmeriFlux 32 .

R. Anthoni.. A.. 1994. An emerging ground-based aerosol climatology: Aerosol Optical Depth from AERONET. Janssens. Journal of Geophysical Research 102: 28.P. Chapman & Hall. R. B.N. D. Alapaty. L. K...E.. Oechel. J. Science 299: 20352038.. A. Meyers. and Freedman. In: Proceedings of the American Geophysical Union Meeting.F. M.. Matsui. Jarvis.-I.1029/2004GL020915. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82: 2415-2434.. Baldocchi. Tiaga. In other words. they alter the atmospheric environment in a way that directly enhances their opportunities for greater growth... R. subject/f/feedbackdiffuse. Grelle. Gu. X. Davis..-M. pp. Wofsy. Spring 1995. W... Munger. J.A. D.K.. Pinker. and Zibordi. Law. Chen. L. Niyogi. Urbanski. Frouin.. Falge. I. Vesala.. Pietras. 2001. becoming ever more productive. Evans. K. N.R. G..P. Katul. . Lavenu.. K. H. A. K.. Goldstein. and Lawrence. Falge.Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing    Hence. earth’s trees significantly control their own destiny. Goldstein... Smirnov..... W.. it can be appreciated that earth’s woody plants are themselves responsible for emitting to the air that which ultimately enhances their own photosynthetic prowess. W. Falk. Davis. Meyers.M. Baldocchi.C.A..B.. R. D. Thorgeirsson. a significant cooling effect on the planet that exerts itself by both slowing the rate of rise of the air’s CO2 content and reducing the receipt of solar radiation at the earth’s surface. B. Munger. T. V. 1998.A.e. Pilegaard. Running. O’Neill. Michalsky.T. Halthore. W. and Xue. D.. Sakai. Society helps too. T. Paw U. F. which leads to even more plant-derived aerosols being released to the atmosphere. Matteucci. Goulden..D.... Bernhofer. and Wofsy.. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 12. T. Fitzjarrald. W. T. G. in this regard. Paw U. Chang.. Kelliher. Vesala.Y. Granier. I. Bazzaz... R. CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic’s view of potential climate change.. R.. H. Pielke Sr.. S.... Response of a deciduous forest to the Mount Pinatubo eruption: Enhanced photosynthesis. the globe’s woody plants quickly respond to its aerial fertilization effect.. R. N. and Hunt. NY. Saxena.. A..F.. and should be continuing to have.. Lee... Assessing the impact of cloud cover on carbon 33 uptake in the northern boreal forest. B.. 2001. C..E. Wells. Wilson. F. K.J.. New York. H. K. This is happening in spite of all other insults to the environment that work in opposition to enhanced biological activity. Fuentes. Markham.. Berbigier. E. L. F.. Gu.987-28. Newcomb.L. earth’s trees use some of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere by society to alter the aerial environment so as to enable them to remove even more CO2 from the air.. S. Wilson..J. A. D. Carbon dioxide exchange between an undisturbed old-growth temperate forest and the atmosphere.. S. S. Daube..co2science. W. it is clear that the historical and still-ongoing CO2-induced increase in atmospheric biosols should have had. K.. including reviews of newer publications as they become available.. can be found at http://www.M.. Eck. J. T. A. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10.. Hollinger. Katul...T. Jensen.. B. FLUXNET: A new tool to study the temporal and spatial variability of ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide. Y.06712. Davis. Valentini.J. K.V. Slutsker. EOS Supplement.T. S. Neither of these effects is fully and adequately included in any general circulation model of the atmosphere of which we are aware.N. and Wofsy. E.. T.D.. S. Setzer.S.A. S. (Eds. R. A. Climate Research 10: 6982. D.J....W.D. Hollinger.... R..H. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 113: 97120. Abuhassan. Additional information on this topic. Malhi. P.. Environmental controls over carbon dioxide and water vapor exchange of terrestrial vegetation.097. Idso.O. W. 1995. Fuentes. Sutton..H. J.C.W. B. Law.php.T. C.E. P. D. Pilegaard. Oechel.. A.J. Olson. Meyers.. S.996...W. Schafer. G. Stated another way.. Booker. Y... B. Y. Y. P.. which stimulates this positive feedback cycle to a still greater degree. and Boden. P. S. Ecology 75: 134-150. J. In light of these several observations. 1985.. for as we pump ever more CO2 into the atmosphere.. Karneli. and Mooney. W. S.. D..C.. 1997. H. K. R. Mahli.. B.. Kaufman. T. J. Verma. J. 2004.. K. Direct observations of the effects of aerosol loading on net ecosystem CO2 exchanges over different landscapes.. Verma. Gu. T.T... Holben. D. 2003. Chatenet. A. Clark. N. Munger.. Fan. Schmid. Byers. In: Chabot. 2002. References Baldocchi. Tanré. G. water vapor. and Wofsy.. Oechel. K. K.. K. D. Dolman. J. J... Olson. F..C. p. Voss.. R. M. The end result is that earth’s trees and humanity are working hand-in-hand to significantly increase the productivity of the biosphere.. 66-94. Hollinger. Moore. Holt. B. S125. T. Monson.) Physiological Ecology of North American Plant Communities.. Wilson. Physiological responses of a black spruce forest to weather. and energy flux densities. Valentini.C.K. J. Munger. Bakwin. R. i.. Holben. D. Castle.

V. As related by Kolb whole. great as 45 pmol per liter in the top 150 meters of the oceanic water column that correlated well with the abundance of Prochlorococcus. W. they also demonstrated that concentrations of global warming. Vol. 1996. 1993..” fluctuating light level? In: Proceedings of the 22nd Four years later.3 x 1011 g I year-1.L. Planet Earth.H. 1990. K.” which previously unrecognized source of aerosol particles” they say “is a large fraction of the total estimated by unraveling “a photochemical phenomenon that global flux of iodine (1011-1012 g I year-1).M. Iodocompounds methyl iodide concentrations. the six researchers “estimate the global ocean (2002) in an accompanying perspective on their work. M.” and because that “new particles can form from condensable “an increase in the production of iodocompounds and iodine-containing vapors..” new clouds that reflect more incoming solar radiation with consequent “important implications for global back to space and thereby cool the planet (a negative climate change. and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). O’Dowd et al. D. (2002). environmental conditions associated with global Dale. J.” which.. 2001. and Noble. seawater. A. With respect to the negative feedback counteract global warming. American Scientist 78: 310-326.” I.J.R.” This occurs in sea air and produces aerosol particles observation is extremely important.. Part III. cite the Most recently. Nature Atlantic Ocean and one in the Indian Ocean. pp. which demonstrates Ecosystem CO2 Enrichment Study.” More specifically. CCN concentrations of the order of 20—60 percent. so..” With the help of aerosol formation in a negative climate feedback mechanism. Wingenter et al. and Freedman. picophytoprokaryotes during two ship cruises in the Sarmiento. as they report. the iodinated compounds. Moore.R.Climate Change Reconsidered    Post.4.. as part of the Third Pelagic work of Laturnus et al. Farquhar. 90-93.M. Emanuel.” They add that they “have confirmed the release of methyl iodide by this The climatic significance of iodinated compounds or species in laboratory culture experiments. 1990.” Specifically. flux of iodine [I] to the marine boundary layer from the 10-member research team discovered “a this single source to be 5.-H.W. forcing similar in magnitude. “increasing the source rate of condensable iodine vapors will result in an increase in marine aerosol and Roderick. they suggest that condensable iodine-containing vapors over the open “as ocean waters become warmer and more stratified. mitigating models. 22. P. Peng.R.” iodocompounds was first described in the pages of Extrapolating their findings to the globe as a Nature by O’Dowd et al.’s team used a smog chamber operated under coastal words. EOS: Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 71: 1883-1884. Berry. they focused “on methyl iodide production and the importance of a biologically related source.” be a regime shift away from microalgae toward The significance of this work is that the aerosol Prochlorococcus. G.D. that emissions of iodocarbons from marine biota “can (2007) investigated the effects of atmospheric CO2 increase by up to 5 times as a result of changes in 34 .. helping to create increase in the release of iodine to the atmosphere. R.L. ocean “are sufficient to influence marine particle nutrient concentrations will fall and there will likely formation. (2006) Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology with measured trace gas and pigment concentrations in Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology. while identifying and enumerating American Meteorological Society. which are the photolysis the subsequent production of CCN would potentially products of biogenic iodocarbons emitted from result in a net cooling of the earth system and hence marine algae. discovered can function as <50° latitude band will result in a ~15 percent cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). resulting from changes in CCN concentrations of this Oecologia 129: 21-30. W. Fitzjarrald. cycle. (2000).L. King.” In doing Sellers.E. but opposite in sign. How do forest surface fluxes depend on the forcing induced by greenhouse gases. which they report “can account for >80 percent of the variability in the 2. because volatile composed largely of iodine oxides. T. as previously noted. magnitude can lead to an increase in global radiative Sakai. continue. they encountered methyl iodide concentrations as Biosphere. tend to feedback). D. Atmospheric CO2 stalled. where 365: 697-698. they note that “changes in cloud albedo particles on the productivity and structure of vegetation. J. in Smythe-Wright et al. and DeAngelis. as O’Dowd et al. “play a part in the formation of new particles atmospheric conditions to demonstrate. Smythe-Wright et al. On the direct effect of clouds and atmospheric Furthermore.. and McCarthy.” such that “colonization within the particles O’Dowd et al. The global carbon change. nature of this phenomenon. S.” Therefore.K. to J.L.

Schulz. (2002) and Jimenez et al. C.co2science. Dimmer. and Riebesell. that changes in cloud albedo “associated with global change” can lead to an increase in global radiative forcing that is “similar in magnitude. D. This work revealed that the iodocarbon chloroiodomethane (CH2CII) experienced its peak concentration about six to 10 days after the coccolithophorid’s chlorophyll-a maximum. Larsen. J. Zeigler. Three of these mesocosms were maintained at ambient levels of CO2 (~375 ppm or base CO2). O’Dowd. Methyl iodide production in the ocean: Implications for climate change. (2003). Sive.E. Breithaupt. References Jimenez. Seinfeld. M.L. Cocker III. to the forcing induced by greenhouse gases.” And the finding of O’Dowd et al.. 2006.R.” And because emissions of various iodocarbons have been found to lead to an enhancement of cloud condensation nuclei in the marine atmosphere. and three were maintained at levels predicted for the middle of the next century (1150 ppm or 3xCO2). New particle formation from photooxidation of diiodomethane (CH2I2). R..H. and Hoffmann. will increase substrate availability for denitrifying bacteria and may result in higher N2O emissions from agricultural soils as the air’s CO2 content continues to rise. J. Flagan.. C.H. Seinfeld. Kulmala. Norway.. which accounts for almost half of N2O emissions in some countries (Pipatti. subject/f/feedbackiodo.. (2007a) grew mixed stands of timothy (Phleum pratense) and red clover (Trifolium pratense) in sandy-loam-filled mesocosms at low and 35 . 2002. In conclusion. O’Dowd. can be found at http://www. Jennings.C. and Hoffmann. Geophysical Research Letters 34: 10. carefully measuring several physical. 2007. Nature 417: 597-598. R. Rowland. Flagan.G. M. and that its estimated abundance was 46 percent higher in the 2xCO2 mesocosms and 131 percent higher in the 3xCO2 mesocosms..S. L.php. B. Marine aerosol formation from biogenic iodine emissions. D. Bahreini. F.. Paulino.... K. O..D. sum things up..M.. Thyrhaug. 2. 2000. C. Varutbangkul.. Kolb.H. Haase.. R. and biological parameters along the way. but opposite in sign.C.D. M. as demonstrated by O’Dowd et al.1029/2005GB002642.W.. T.. R. During the 25 days of this experiment. C. T. as Wingenter et al.. Davidson. With N2O originating from microbial N cycling in soil— mostly from aerobic nitrification or from anaerobic denitrification (Firestone and Davidson.. Nature 417: 632-636. together with increasing N input from other sources.. A. Boswell.Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing    enrichment on marine microorganisms in nine marine mesocosms maintained within two-meter-diameter polyethylene bags submerged to a depth of 10 meters in a fjord at the Large-Scale Facilities of the Biological Station of the University of Bergen in Espegrend.1029/2002JD002452... F. Smythe-Wright. 2002. and Adams. C. Wiencke. R. Bahreini. A. R. Hameri. as iodocarbons lead to the creation of more highly reflective clouds over greater areas of the world’s oceans.1029/2006GL028139.” suggests that CO2induced increases in marine iodocarbon emissions likely contribute to maintaining that homeostasis. the processes described above “may help contribute to the homeostasis of the planet. V. K. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 20: 10. Wingenter. Laturnus. and Eiras Diaz. K.R.. U.. F. L. Jimenez. Journal of Geophysical Research 108: 10... J.B. Iodine’s air of importance. Meyerhofer.B. the researchers followed the development and subsequent decline of an induced bloom of the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi.. Unexpected consequences of increasing CO2 and ocean acidity on marine production of DMS and CH2CII: Potential climate impacts. Giese. Low-molecular-weight organoiodine and organobromine compounds released by polar macroalgae— The influence of abiotic factors.. 1989)—there is a concern that CO2-induced increases in carbon input to soil.C. Pirjola. Nitrous Oxide One of the main sources of nitrous oxide (N2O) is agriculture. B.. In a study designed to investigate this possibility. Kettunen et al. H... three were maintained at levels expected to prevail at the end of the current century (760 ppm or 2xCO2). J. chemical. Additional information on this topic. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. S.C. it can be appreciated that the CO2-induced stimulation of the marine emissions of these substances provides a natural brake on the tendency for global warming to occur as a consequence of any forcing.5. Fresenius’ Journal of Analytical Chemistry 368: 297-302. 1997). D.D. 2003. S.L. Zhuang. P. The international team of scientists concluded that the differences in the CH2CII concentrations “may be viewed as a result of changes to the ecosystems as a whole brought on by the CO2 perturbations.

while still enhancing the yield possibility that the climate of the Amazon Basin may production [via the aerial fertilization effect of gradually become drier due to a warming-induced elevated CO2] even under low N fertilizer additions. Brazil. pratense were 22 percent and 18 (USA). pratense and T. This they did in the Tapajos while they measured the evolution of N2O from the National Forest near Santarem. the three primarily driven by CO2-induced increases in researchers measured the gas exchange characteristics photosynthesis) by about 30 percent.5 months at moderate (standard). pratense was with ample and limited flood irrigation rates under enhanced by the experimental doubling of the air’s Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (seasonal mean = 579 ppm) CO2 concentration by 21 percent and 26 percent. after 34 percent at the low. and 8 percent at the low. describe as being “consistent with findings for N2O fluxes were higher under ambient CO2 in both unirrigated western U. they report that “the exclusion al. The study found “elevated CO2 did not result percent. (2007b) grew events that have historically brought severe drought to timothy (Phleum pratense) in monoculture within the region—Davidson et al. and 41 percent at the same respective soil N levels. exchange of the ecosystems (which phenomenon was Prior to making this modification.) Moench] production system harvestable biomass production of P. then. it was Mosier et al. low (halfstandard).Climate Change Reconsidered    to the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration was moderate soil nitrogen levels within greenhouses maintained at either 360 or 720 ppm CO2. the researchers found that after in increased N2O or N-gas emissions with either emergence of the mixed stand and during vegetative ample or limited irrigation.” not until the water table had been raised and extra In discussing the implications of their findings. The four Finnish researchers thus concluded that the concentrations increase.” increase in the frequency and/or intensity of El Niño In a similar study. by modifying a one-hectare plot of land covered by mature evergreen mesocosms. 14 years. say their results suggest that “as CO2 elevated CO2 seemed to increase N2O fluxes. in the low and moderate soil N the 1998 and 1999 summer growing seasons at the treatments. And once again. moderate. Arizona enhancements for T. and methane (CH4). This work revealed that the total [Sorghum bicolor (L.” thereby raising “the warming due to this phenomenon.5 times standard) soil N supply. This work revealed that the “drier soil percent.S. (2004) devised an sandy-soil-filled mesocosms located within experiment to determine the consequences of the greenhouses maintained at atmospheric CO2 drying of the soil of an Amazonian moist tropical concentrations of either 360 or 720 ppm for a period forest for the net surface-to-air fluxes of both N2O of 3. (2002) for Mojave Desert soils and by the low and moderate soil N treatments. while corresponding biomass experimental FACE site near Maricopa. In this experiment the maintaining an otherwise similar one-hectare plot of elevated CO2 concentration increased the net CO2 land as a control for comparison. pratense was “able increases in denitrification in C4 cropping to utilize the increased supply of atmospheric CO2 for environments such as irrigated sorghum in the desert southwestern United States. and final trees so as to dramatically reduce the amount of rain above. they levels.” which findings they growth before the first harvest and N fertilization.and below-ground biomass production over that reached the forest floor (throughfall). and high (1. while the course of three harvests. respectively. In addition.” Welzmiller et al. moderate and high conditions caused by throughfall exclusion inhibited soil N levels. and high soil N initiating the throughfall-exclusion treatment. and its below-ground biomass by 28 N2O and CH4 production and promoted CH4 percent. vegetative net CO2 exchange. possibility of maintaining N2O emissions at their In a different type of study—driven by the current level. 27 percent. Kettunen et al. there will not be major mixed stand of P. report that “an explicit increase in N2O fluxes due manipulation lowered annual N2O emissions by >40 percent and increased rates of consumption of 36 . and control (seasonal mean = 396 ppm) CO2 during respectively. 46 percent and of the two plots for a period of 18 months. (2002) for Colorado shortgrass steppe. In fact. fertilization given after the first harvest that the Welzmiller et al. while not found. while it increased the abovecontinued their measurements for an additional three ground biomass of the crop by about 8 percent. ecosystems reported by Billings et al. Kettunen et consumption.” which further suggests enhanced biomass production without a simultaneous there will not be an increased impetus for global increase in the N2O fluxes. (2008) measured N2O and measuring harvestable biomass production and N2O evolution from the mesocosm soils over the course of denitrification emission rates in a C4 sorghum three crop cuttings.” In fact.

Effects of an experimental drought on soil emissions of carbon dioxide. than is carbon dioxide. Welzmiller. Wiley.” Consequently. There are significant forces at play that will likely produce a large negative feedback toward the future warming potential of this powerful greenhouse gas. J.. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. if global warming would indeed increase the frequency and/or intensity of El Niño events as some claim it will.M. Additional information on this topic. Its atmospheric concentration is determined by the difference between how much CH4 goes into the air (emissions) and how much comes out of it (extractions) over the same time period.R.S. S. A. and Thompson. T. R. and Davidson. Plant and Soil 240: 201-211. J.D.A. Mosier. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 78: 197-209. envisage a more extreme second phase response “in which droughtinduced plant mortality is followed by increased mineralization of C and N substrates from dead fine roots and by increased foraging of termites on dead coarse roots” (an extreme response that would be expected to increase N2O and CH4 emissions). Morgan. and methanotrophy. D. Ishida.. the ongoing rise in the air’s carbon dioxide (CO2) content and a number of other contemporary environmental trends have on the atmosphere’s methane (CH4) concentration? The implications of this question are huge because methane is a more powerful greenhouse gas. Can a mixed stand of N2-fixing and non-fixing plants restrict N2O emissions with increasing CO2 concentration? Soil Biology & Biochemistry 39: 25382546. 2008. Martikainen. (Eds. Davidson. and Evans. E. In subject/n/nitrousoxide.T. Saarnio. 62 pp. due to the documented tendency for atmospheric CO2 enrichment to greatly increase the water use efficiency of essentially all plants. 2. King. F. pp. the results of this study suggest that the anticipated drying of the Amazon Basin would initiate a strong negative feedback via (1) large drying-induced reductions in the evolution of both N2O and CH4 from its soils. 2007a. R.A.A. Although Davidson et al. and Nepstad. 2002.G. Pipatti.6.O. S. Matthias.” which results they attributed to the “direct effect of soil aeration on denitrification. D. S. Saarnio.co2science. 2.K.php References Billings. LeCain.C. and N2O in the Colorado shortgrass steppe under elevated CO2. P. Kettunen.. 1997.6. methanogenesis. nitrous oxide. M. M. which would enable the forest to continue to flourish under significantly drier conditions than those of the present.. Firestone. D. In: Andreae. 2004. Espoo. and Milchunas. it would appear that concerns about additional global warming arising from enhanced N2O emissions from agricultural soils in a CO2-enriched atmosphere of the future are not well founded. CO2. each of 37 .. E.Y. Chichester. Methane What impact do global warming. J. NOX. Microbiological basis of NO and N2O production and consumption in soil. and Silvola. and (2) a huge drying-induced increase in the consumption of CH4 by its soils.Y. Soil Biology and Biochemistry 34: 1777-1784. we note that the projected rise in the air’s CO2 content would likely prohibit such a thing from ever occurring. J. and Schimel.. D.J. Soil Science Society of America Journal 72: 393-401. R. (1999).. and Silvola. Suomen metaani-ja dityppioksidipaastojen rajoittamisen mahdollisuudet ja kustannustehokkuus. S. Kettunen. R. methane.. 1989.) Exchange of Trace Gases Between Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Atmosphere.A.D.. who studied batches of rice growing in large vats filled with topsoil and placed within greenhouse tunnels maintained at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 350 and 700 ppm.. 2007b. can be found at http://www. N2O fluxes and CO2 exchange at different N doses under elevated CO2 concentration in boreal agricultural mineral soil under Phleum pratense. Global Change Biology 10: 718730. J.Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing    atmospheric CH4 by a factor of >4. Schaeffer. S. molecule for molecule. A. White. 7-21. and nitric oxide in a moist tropical forest. Elevated carbon dioxide and irrigation effects on soil nitrogen gas exchange in irrigated sorghum. VTT tiedotteita. Trace N gas losses and mineralization in Mojave Desert soils exposed to elevated CO2. Extraction Early indications that atmospheric CO2 enrichment might significantly reduce methane emissions associated with the production of rice were provided by Schrope et al. 2002. nearly all of which forces are ignored by the IPCC.1. 1835. Soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4.L.

1996. system. They report that 2°C increase above ambient.” increased the CH4 [methane] emissions by 38 percent Another agricultural source of methane is the in 1999 and 51 percent in 2000. a study of laboratory experiments we conclude that any the same phenomenon by a different set of scientists agricultural praxis improving the N-supply to the rice yielded a different result in a different set of plants will also be favourable for the CH4 oxidising circumstances. “the results of this study did not support our hypothesis that an effect of both To help promote that discussion. (2004) report that existing mitigation strategies for the world. Schrope et al.. Singh et al. percent to meet the demands of the growing human However. consequences for the overall global warming potential They found that the extra CO2 “significantly could be found.” which phenomenon fermentation of feed in the rumen of cattle and sheep. they on CH4 emission. Kruger and in a second year of sampling and obtained essentially Frenzel say that “combining our field. during this study. They thus (Cai et al. 1996). in a truly unanticipated development. could find none. 1989. 1997. Banik et al. As global CH4 emission (Neue. reducing CH4 emissions from dairy cows include the 38 . population (Cassman et al.” and that “during the next 30 years system.Climate Change Reconsidered    A somewhat related study was conducted by which tunnels was further subdivided into four Kruger and Frenzel (2003). Four years later. stated that their results “unequivocally support the 1990).. increasing it by up to 35 percent aboverice production has to be increased by at least 60 ground and by up to 83 percent below-ground. 1997. (2003) studied the effects of various result of increased root exudates and root autolysis types and levels of fish-oil feed additives on this products and to the increased plant-mediated CH4 process by means of both in vitro and in vivo emission because of the higher rice tiller numbers experiments with sheep. microcosm and the same results.” The implication Iwate.” Because of these methane emissions from the rice grown at 700 ppm facts they further note that “increasing amounts of CO2 were found to be 10 to 45 times less than fertilizer will have to be applied to maximize yields [and] there is ongoing discussion on the possible emissions from the plants grown at 350 ppm. methane emissions al. and oxidation in rice report that “both increased carbon dioxide and culture in laboratory.” noting that “N-fertilisation had only a Inubushi et al. Crutzen and would be expected.... 1998). with respect to the effects of from Oryza sativa [rice] plants grown under elevated CO2 on methane emissions. who note that “rice sections that provided temperature treatments ranging paddies contribute approximately 10-13 percent to the from ambient to as much as 5°C above ambient.” Schrope et al. As effects of fertilization on CH4 emissions. observing a maximal 80 under FACE conditions.” and to be doubly sure both elevated CO2 and increased N-fertilization. field by an elevated CH4 production.” similar to the polarized findings of Schrope et conclusion that. Schutz et al. conditions of elevated CO2 were dramatically reduced therefore. 1981. they attributed to “accelerated CH4 production as a Fievez et al. Japan in a FACE study where the air’s CO2 of these findings is well articulated in the concluding sentence of their paper: “neither positive nor negative concentration was increased 200 ppm above ambient. for example.. however. doubling the air’s CO2 content significantly enhanced rice biomass production in this Lelieveld. and Inubushi et al. microcosm and field increased temperatures were observed to produce experiments they conducted at the Italian Rice decreased methane emissions. Boadi et these results is the more typical of rice culture around al. With of this fact. 2001).” while “methanogenesis In checking for potential problems with their and CH4 emission was found to be inhibited in others experiment. Lindau et al. Kruger and increased carbon dioxide and temperature would be Frenzel investigated the effects of N-fertilizer (urea) an increase in methane emissions. production. With respect to cattle. describe it..” except for the first Research Institute in northern Italy. they went on to replicate their experiment respect to their own study. In the mean.” Indeed. there may well be little to no change in overall CH4 emissions from rice fields in response to relative to plants gown in comparable conditions under ambient levels of CO2. which produced a slight in some prior studies “N-fertilisation stimulated CH4 increase in methane evolution from the plant-soil emissions (Cicerone and Shetter. (2003) grew a different cultivar of transient influence and was counter-balanced in the rice in 1999 and 2000 in paddy culture at Shizukuishi.” With such a dramatically percent decline in the ruminants’ production of different result from that of Schrope et al. bacteria. many more methane when using fish-oil additives containing n-3studies likely will be required to determine which of eicosapentanoic acid.

essential oils) to the diet. CH4 emissions would decline by 74-81 percent. each one of which (on average) has the potential to reduce CH4 emissions from dairy cows by as much as a third.g. Averaged over all locations. 1995) and Carex (Morrissey et al.. as well as immunization. and Juncus effusus L.” indicative of the fact that the biosphere appears to be organized to resist warming influences that could push it into a thermal regime that might otherwise prove detrimental to its health. Concomitantly. In a theoretical study of the subject.. (2005) grew seedlings of three emergent aquatic macrophytes (Orontium aquaticum L.) plus one coniferous tree (Taxodium distichum L. where the average maximum potential CH4 reduction that may result from the implementation of each strategy is 30 percent or more. while at the lower locations there was little change in CH4 flux. measured CH4 fluxes to the atmosphere at different locations that varied in depth-to-water table within natural portions of a poor fen in central Quebec. by implication. In an attempt to obtain some experimental data on the subject. in a five-to-one mixture of well-fertilized mineral soil and peat moss in pots submerged in water in tubs located within controlled environment chambers for a period of eight weeks.” To this end. they provide a table of 20 such strategies. along with net CO2 assimilation rate and stomatal conductance. bacteriocins. two other important wetland plants. at various times over the period 2001-2003 Strack et al. they measured the amount of CH4 emitted by the plant foliage. Strack et al. Hence. acetogens. Canada. Garnet et al. while not reducing the biological benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the process.” The greatest reductions (up to 97 percent) were measured at the higher locations. organic acids. since atmospheric CO2 enrichment 39 . With as many as 20 different mitigation strategies from which to choose. while newer mitigation strategies include “the addition of probiotics. the Canadian scientists reported that “methane emissions and storage were lower in the drained fen. but the researchers found that changes in stomatal conductance affected foliage methane flux “three times more than equivalent changes in net CO2 assimilation. as well as within control portions of the fen that had been drained eight years earlier. as well as the use of high-quality forages and grains in their diet. (1992) calculated that for a decline of 14 cm in the water tables of northern Canadian peatlands. they determined that the “growing season CH4 emissions at the drained site were 55 percent lower than the control site. In view of these several observations. and genetic selection of cows. due to climate-model-derived increases in temperature (3°C) and precipitation (1mm/day) predicted for a doubling of the air’s CO2 content. Peltandra virginica L. should be at the top of any program designed to achieve that difficult (but still highly questionable) objective. In addition. At the conclusion of their study. Roulet et al. all of which are native to eastern North America.” making stomatal conductance the more significant of the two CH4 emission-controllers.Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing    addition of ionophores and fats to their food. which could take a huge bite out of methane-induced global warming. which were made to vary by changing the CO2 concentration of the air surrounding the plants and the density of the photosynthetic photon flux impinging on them.. Methane emissions from the four wetland species increased linearly with increases in both stomatal conductance and net CO2 assimilation rate. This prediction cries out for an analysis of how lowered water tables will affect peatland emissions of CH4. the host of other ruminants that mankind raises and uses for various purposes around the world. they note that evidence of stomatal control of CH4 emission has also been reported for Typha latifolia (Knapp and Yavitt. In a contemporaneous study. But do methane emissions from natural vegetation respond in a similar way? We have already discussed the results of Davidson et al. we can be cautiously optimistic about our agricultural intervention capabilities and their capacity to help stem the tide of earth’s historically rising atmospheric methane concentration.). In another experimental study. which results suggest that a global warming-induced drying of the Amazon Basin would initiate a strong negative feedback to warming via (1) large dryinginduced reductions in the evolution of N2O and CH4 from its soils and (2) a huge drying-induced increase in the consumption of CH4 by its soils. Such highefficiency approaches to reducing the strength of the atmosphere’s greenhouse effect.. (2004) also reported that climate models predict increases in evapotranspiration that could lead to drying in a warming world and a subsequent lowering of water tables in high northern latitudes. archaeal viruses. 1993). [and] plant extracts (e. (2004) in our Nitrous Oxide section. it would appear there is a tremendous potential to dramatically curtail the amount of CH4 released to the atmosphere by these ruminants and.

that “changes in temperature and and Olsen. Post (1988) have suggested. Dobbie and Smith. 1989. 1994. 1998). temperate As for the implications of these findings. which. type that comprise most wetlands). who assessed the is reduced) in most herbaceous plants (which are the influence of six boreal forest species—spruce. Another study that deals with this topic is that of (which is increased) and stomatal conductance (which Menyailo and Hungate (2003).” Under low soil moisture the annual input of methane to the atmosphere conditions. birch. arable lands (Jensen and Hungate. Through all models of global climate change. tropical forests (Keller. This soil sink for methane hardwood species consumed 35 percent more CH4 appears to be ubiquitous. one of the major 2002). Hence. for increase in methane uptake from the atmosphere that is experienced by essentially all soils. 1990). as explained in been observed in several other studies (Peterjohn et Section 7. the Russian Academy of Sciences (Menyailo et al. in their it can be Scots pine. and Arolla pine—on soil appreciated that the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 CH4 consumption in the Siberian artificial content should be acting to reduce methane emissions from earth’s wetland vegetation.. Additional information on this topic. under the heading of Isoprene.co2science. and deserts (Striegl et al. Saari et al. 1992). 1997. the soils under the two (Watson et al. boreal forests (Whalen et al.. http://www. would produce two warming. it will likely lead to an increase in Mer and Roger.co2science increase in soil methane uptake from the atmosphere .Climate Change Reconsidered    ratio that typically results from atmospheric CO2 leads to approximately equivalent—but oppositely directed—changes in foliar net CO2 assimilation enrichment. Prieme and also lead to a significant removal of methane from the Christensen. 1986. 1996)— America. 1996). aspen...” Consequently. as has also vegetative isoprene emissions. methane consumption by soils and a reduction in In an attempt to learn more about this subject. being concentration will likely lead to a net reduction in positively correlated with temperature. the magnitude of which phenomenon is believed to be equivalent to species and grassland. they found that methane was Last. if such a shifting of species appearing to be the most efficient in this regard (Le does indeed occur.php. 1992). as the air’s CO2 content—and absorption was additionally—and even more possibly its temperature—continues to rise. Methane atmosphere. 2001). larch. because of the threeafforestation experiment. Yavitt et al. in which the six common times-greater negative CH4 emission impact of the boreal tree species had been grown under common garden conditions for the past 30 years under the decrease in stomatal conductance compared to the watchful eye of the staff of the Laboratory of Soil positive CH4 emission impact of the equivalent Science of the Institute of Forest. 1997). CO2-induced or natural. thereby Tamai et al.. can be found at http://www. precipitation resulting from increasing atmospheric Singh et al. we note that increases in the air’s CO2 absorbed by the soils of all three sites. 1998). methane-induced global warming potential. 1992). that “soils means by which methane is removed from the under hardwood species (aspen and birch) consumed atmosphere is via oxidation by methanotrophic CH4 at higher rates than soils under coniferous bacteria in the aerobic zones of soils. moisture conditions they consumed 65 percent more.. and http://www. seasons of the year.php. They 40-year-old trees.. (1992). 1990). we can strongly—positively correlated with the C/N ratio of expect to see a significant increase in the rate of the cypress plantations’ soil organic matter. Siberian Branch of increase in net CO2 CO2 concentrations will cause a northward migration with forest soils—especially boreal and temperate of the hardwood-conifer forest border in North forest upland soils (Whalen and Reeburgh.co2 that is produced by the increase in plant-litter C/N science. (2003) studied methane uptake rates by providing yet another biologically mediated negative the soils of three Japanese cypress plantations feedback factor that has yet to be incorporated into composed of 30. as methane uptake has been than the soils under the four conifers.php...1. Pastor and forests (Steudler et al. Based on methane removal from earth’s atmosphere. and (2) an subject/m/methaneextract. should al. 40 . under high soil observed in soils of tundra (Whalen and Reeburgh. 1997). in the words of Menyailo grasslands (Mosier et al. including biologically mediated negative feedbacks to counter reviews of newer publications as they become the increase in temperature: (1) a warming-induced available. it can be appreciated that any global should help to reduce the potential for further global warming. According to Prinn et al.. which these results.

R. W. 1988. Potter.A.. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 28: 1357-1365. Jensen. from nine sites across North America. 1996. 2004. Gas exchange characteristics of Typha latifolia L. Ecological Applications 4: 617-625. European Journal of Soil Biology 37: 25-50. nitrous oxide. Zobel. Dobbie. emission and consumption of methane by soils: a review. K. Ojima. J. K. and Smith. J. G..D. M.S. Mosier.R. W. U. Fish oils as potent rumen methane inhibitors and associated effects on rumen fermentation in vitro and in vivo. Nature 334: 55-58..E. 1986.. Lima. and methane emission from lowland rice. H. Plant and Soil 196: 7-14. Soil Science Society of America Journal 54: 1789-1794. CH4. Peng. and Okada. A. Measurements in rice paddies and a discussion.W. D. A. Lefebvre. and Yavitt. D. Ishida. methane. 1997. J. and Zech.). Steudler. and consequences for CH4 emissions from microcosms and rice fields. E.W. Crutzen. C. Mendoza. O. Dohme. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 30: 1187-1193.C. Cassman.. Menyailo.. Production.. and Brooks. Morrissey. Comparison of CH4 oxidation rates in woodland. and Christensen. D... Alencar. and Frenzel.U. Davidson. 1995. P. P.J. Biology and Fertility of Soils 21: 319-322. A. 1997. Aonuma. Aquatic Botany 49: 203-215. Effects of N-fertilisation on CH4 oxidation and production.. Miura. 1994. and Lelieveld. Kobayashi. Ladha.A. S. S. and Olsen.791-11. M. X. arable and set aside soils.. Soil Use and Management 13: 258-267. Sen.P. and Singh. Moutinho.M.P. Journal of Geophysical Research 86: 72037209.. H. and Masse. S. Response of northern forests to CO2-induced climate change. CH4 and N2O fluxes in the Colorado shortgrass steppe. Nobre. Global Change Biology 9: 1458-1464.Y. E. Large-scale impoverishment of Amazonian forests by logging and fire.Y. 1998. Yan. Le Mer. B.. Opportunities for increased nitrogen-use efficiency from improved resource management in irrigated rice systems. Canadian Journal of Animal Science 84: 319-335. P. and Hungate. Hoque. Kim.K. Interactive effects of tree species and soil moisture on methane consumption. Knapp. Atmospheric methane consumption in adjacent arable and forest soil systems. 41 . Pastor. Boadi. Parton. W. J. Cai. and nitric oxide in a moist tropical forest..A. DeLaune. Danneels.. W. 1996. A. 2002.J.A. K. Valentine.. Neue. Fievez. 2001. Animal Feed Science and Technology 104: 41-58. W. Keller. Significance of stomatal control of methane release from Carex-dominated wetlands.. Z. Cheng. D. Physiological control of leaf methane emission from wetland plants. and Nepstad. Melillo. 2003. P. 1999. K. G. Long-term impact of land use change. 2003. Fluxes of methane from rice fields and potential for mitigation. Mitigation strategies to reduce enteric methane emissions from dairy cows: Update review. D.E. Human impacts on atmospheric chemistry. W. Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice paddy fields as affected by nitrogen fertilizers and water management. K. Benchaar..M. J. K.. Lindau. Effects of an experimental drought on soil emissions of carbon dioxide. C. and Roger. Patrick Jr. F. and CO2 from tropical forest soils.. G. Tree species mediated soil chemical changes in a Siberian artificial afforestation experiment. Nepstad. and Taylor Jr. Inubushi... Global Biogeochemical Cycles 11: 29-42. Garnet. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 29: 1165-1172.V. Yogi.C. Plant and Soil 242: 171182. Global Change Biology 9: 773-784. Schimel. 2004. M.V. Xu.H. Megonigal. K..... Soil Biology & Biochemistry 35: 625-628. V. M.B. D.. 2005.. D. Fertilizer effects on dinitrogen. Effects of inorganic fertilizers and micronutrients on methane production from wetland rice (Oryza sativa L. E. Emissions of N2O.G. R. and Demeyer. and Livingston.. K.P. and Newkirk.M.. Doberman. and Post. D. W. K. J. B. Chiquette.. H. A. Effects of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) on CH4 emission from a rice paddy field.. D.T. M. and Minami.. M. 2003.. 1981. Menyailo. Tsuruta. Litchfield. J. V. S. and Shetter. Global Change Biology 10: 718730.S. Kruger. O. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 29: 17-45. 2003. M... et al. Nature 398: 505-508. 1998.A.. F. and Heinemeyer. Hungate. Schlesinger. P. Reichardt.. 1990.M. J. Seasonal and spatial variation of methane oxidation in a Danish spruce forest. Aquatic Botany 81: 141-155. and Sen.. S. J... Prieme...A. Field Crops Research 56: 7-39.Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing    References Banik. Peterjohn. C. Chemosphere 26: 339-356. Responses of trace gas fluxes and N availability to experimentally elevated soil temperatures. A. Cochrane.. 1997. P. O.. Cicerone. C. 2.K.. nitrous oxide.802. K. R. S. Olk.J. Raes. Xing. Verissimo.A. A..C. C. D. Sources of atmospheric methane. H. P. oxidation. L. Journal of Geophysical Research 91: 11.N. 1993. 2001.D. 1997.

which clearly shows a linear-trend decline in CH4 growth rates since the mid-1980s. the graph of realworld data from Simpson et al. and Varney. W.M. Gutzler. 2003. 2. J. 1996. Sanhueza..2. Takenaka. S.J. E... D. Singh.S... A. season.C. we reported on several real-world phenomena that can act to reduce or extract methane (CH4) from the atmosphere.. Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to The IPCC Scientific Assessment. A. T. (Eds. E. Biogeochemistry 16: 181-211.A.T. D. Schrope. J.S. Global average concentration and trend for hydroxyl radicals deduced from ALE/GAGE trichloroethane (methyl chloroform) data for 1978-1990.S. H.. That those feedbacks may already be operating and having a significant impact on global methane concentrations is illustrated in a discussion of observed atmospheric methane trends.S.. 1992. R. R. A. McConnaughey. A... FEMS Microbiology Ecology 26: 245-255. and Aber. Ishizuka. Rosen. Figure 2.. S. 1992.G. Waddington. Roulet. D. Hartley. 1999. J. and Reddy. Meillo. Heiskanen. Strack.1. Pinatubo in June 1991 (Bekki et al. W. P. Oryza sativa. and Sextone. W. V. 1992. R. V. M.K. Lang.J.S.. Plant and Soil 196: 115-121.K. A. Sources and sinks. (2002). Effect of water table drawdown on northern peatland methane dynamics: Implications for climate change. and Reeburgh. Whalen. Meira Filho. 2004. fertilization and water level.. and Tezuka.. P. 1997. We begin with Figure 2. 42 . J. T. Weeks.E. Cambridge. Adapted from Simpson et al. Effect of soil nitrogen. 1990. and Rasmussen. (2002). E. Chanton.. S.. D. Consumption of atmospheric methane by tundra soils. Bubier. Bowden. Methane flux and regulatory variables in soils of three equal-aged Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) forests in central Japan.A. In: Houghton.. J. Singh. 1992. Fraser. The authors contended it was “premature to believe” the rate of growth was falling. R. D. R.. most of which feedbacks are enhanced as the air’s CO2 concentration rises. 25-46.. S. Effect of the organic horizon on methane oxidation and uptake in soil of a boreal Scots pine forest. 1998. and Lafleur..S.1.A. S. F. Conrad. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 28: 1271-1281. J. J.D. UK.. and Reeburgh..D... Singh.. and Janetos. Tellus Series B 44: 100-105. A 3-year continuous record on the influence of daytime.S. Biogeochemistry 9: 39-52. A.6.S. Watson. Thorstensen. A. J. even though their own data bore witness against them. L.-S. and Woodward. Journal of Geophysical Research 94: 16405-16416. Crawford.. Reeburgh. Cambridge University Press.A.H.1.. J.P. Schutz. J.. Whalen. Raghubanshi. and Tuittila. Simmonds. Oxidation of methane in boreal forest soils: a comparison of seven measures. Allen. Moore. L. R. Nature 341: 314-316. S. carbon and moisture on methane uptake by dry tropical forest soils. B.6. J.P.. Singh. R.C. Nature 357: 145-147. Global Change Biology 5: 587-599.. 1996.M. 1989.Climate Change Reconsidered    Prinn. M. Nature 346: 160-162. Striegl.T.T. N. and fertilizer treatment on methane emission rates from an Italian rice paddy. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18: 10..1029/2003GB002209. et al. 1994. Concentrations In Section 2. Moisture and temperature sensitivity of CH4 oxidation in boreal soils.. Influence of nitrogen fertilization on CH4 uptake in temperate forest soils.C. Global tropospheric methane (CH4) growth rate vs. Downey.. pp. The first of the 1990s’ large CH4 spikes is widely recognized as having been caused by the eruption of Mt. Methane flux from rice/wheat agroecosystem as affected by crop phenology. R.M.. P..B. Consumption of atmospheric methane by desert soils. C. Effect of CO2 enrichment and elevated temperature on methane emissions from rice. Steudler.. CH4 consumption in two temperate forest soils.6.). et al.C. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 35: 633-641.6. Alyea. Plant and Soil 183: 323-327. P. Martikainen. Singh. Cunnold. and Barber. Journal of Geophysical Research 97: 2445-2461. Northern fens: Methane flux and climatic change.C. T. J. and Baker. N. Yavitt. Saari.G. Whalen. Boldi. P. S. A.2. 1989. 1990. Holzapfel-Pschorrn.. Kashyap. time. S.K. Raghubanshi. 1992. Callander.2. Tamai. D..

Dlugokencky et al.. 1996. (2003) revisited the subject with an additional two years’ of data. to much smaller. Schnell and Dlugokencky (2008) provided an update through 2007 of atmospheric methane concentrations as determined from weekly discrete samples collected on a regular basis since 1983 at the NOAA/ESRL Mauna Loa Observatory. In their study. it is clear that the rate of methane increase in the atmosphere has dropped dramatically over time. 43 .” and they go on to say that “it is questionable whether human activities can cause methane concentrations to increase greatly in the future. “the trend has been decreasing for the last two decades until the present when it has reached near zero. since that would be the next logical step in the observed progression from significant.2.” They caution. Khalil et al. (2007) essentially “put the nails in the coffin” of the idea that rising atmospheric CH4 concentrations pose any further global warming threat at all.” We agree.6. 1997). Lowe et al.2. (1994). We have extracted the results from their graphical presentation and replotted them as shown in Figure 2. One year later. (2000) have all suggested that the annual rate-of-rise of the atmosphere’s CH4 concentration is indeed declining and leading to a cessation of growth in the atmospheric burden of methane. to no yearly CH4 increase.2.” Figure 2. while the last and most dramatic of the spikes has been linked to the remarkably strong El Niño of 1997-98 (Dlugokencky et al. As Khalil et al. they defined an evenly spaced matrix of surface CH4 mole fractions as a function of time and latitude. (1999). With respect to these data. from which they calculated global CH4 concentration averages for the years 1984-2002.3. As noted earlier. we feel confident in suggesting that if the recent pause in CH4 increase is indeed temporary. However. time. Adapted from Dlugokencky et al.2. to which we have added the smooth line. Global methane (CH4) concentration.6.2. and Lassey et al. that “our understanding is still not sufficient to tell if the prolonged pause in CH4 increase is temporary or permanent. Global tropospheric methane (CH4) concentration vs. Figure 2. 2001). Based on measurements from 43 globally distributed remote boundary-layer sites that were obtained by means of the methods of Dlugokencky et al. the three Oregon (USA) researchers combined two huge atmospheric methane datasets to produce the unified dataset depicted in Figure 2.6. Dlugokencky et al.Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing    Dlugokencky et al. that “during this 4-year period the global methane budget has been at steady state. (2003). Dlugokencky et al. (1998). (2007). however..” which suggests. Francey et al. in their words.2. describe it.. Adapted from Khalil et al.6.3. In viewing this graph. note that the globally averaged atmospheric methane concentration “was constant at ~1751 ppb from 1999 through 2002. it will likely be followed by a decrease in CH4 concentration.

and Tans. 1998.4. Changes in CH4 and CO growth rates after the eruption of Mt. these periodic one-year-long upward spikes in methane growth rate must be the result of some normal phenomenon. the findings of whom we reproduced previously in Figure 2. Lang. Rigby et al.. Novelli.. P. P. they say that “the increase in greenhouse gases. Continuing decline in the growth rate of the atmospheric methane burden. Houweling.6.4. Lang. Bruhwiler. Law. Dlugokencky. S. Masarie.B. E.. K. Dlugokencky. can be found at http://www. Trace gas mole fractions of methane (CH4) as which has yet to be determined. (2008) analyzed subject/m/methaneatmos.1029/2003GL018126. Masarie. year. and Pyle.2. including approximately one-half the estimated increase in reviews of newer publications as they become background tropospheric O3 during that time. as they also note. Additional reassurance in this regard comes from the work of Simpson et al..6. (2002). and Tans.C.. 1994.. in the “atmospheric CH4 has remained nearly constant since words of Schnell and Dlugokencky. both networks measured even larger methane Our adaptation of the graphical rendition of the data growth rate increases of approximately 13 ppb per provided by the authors is presented in Figure 2. Hawaii..J. Lantz. S.M. J. unclear”—has resulted in a one-third reduction in the because.” In addition.” there is also reassurance in the recent findings.. that near the end of 1998 and the beginning 44 References Bekki. L. Nature 371: 595-597. P.A. Geophysical Research Letters 23: 2761-2764.Climate Change Reconsidered    of 1999. Tans.” This is a most important finding. but sometimes dropping five parts per billion (ppb) per year into the negative range.A. And we note that the most current displayed data from the two networks indicate the beginning of what could well be another downward trend.. it can be appreciated that Dlugokencky (2008). for example. Miller.co2science. Hence. E.1.P.O. P. Although some people might be alarmed by these findings.” available..A.6. E..P. even greater methane growth rates than those observed by Rigby et al. “are still the late 1990s.2. is about 0. 1996.” with the record-long range of methane growth rates mostly hovering about Most recently. Dlugokencky. occurred in still earlier years. K. Dutton.S. Atmospheric methane levels off: Temporary pause or a new steady-state? Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.. methane since the preindustrial era is responsible for Additional information on this topic. and Australian researchers’ concluding statement that the methane growth rate during 2007 “was significantly elevated at all AGAGE and CSIRO sites simultaneously for the first time in almost a decade. measured at Mauna Loa. the identity of Figure 2. Adapted from Schnell and In light of these finding. . Effect of ozone depletion on atmospheric CH4 and CO concentrations.P. S. Schnell and Dlugokencky state that concentration—the exact causes of which. including direct and been produced by a continuation of the prior rates-ofindirect effects.php. 2003. Pinatubo and their link with changes in tropical tropospheric UV flux.J. K. about half that of rise of the concentrations of the two atmospheric CO2. J.7 Wm-2. over the past decade there have been essentially no increases in methane emissions to the atmosphere.J.. UK.2. E.G. as well as by the US. We note. methane data obtained from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) over the period January 1997 to April 2008. P.M. while rising near the end of the record to mean positive values of 8 and 12 ppb per year for the two measurement networks. P. and Madronich. Masarie. K. before dropping back to zero at the beginning of the new millennium. As can be seen there.A. K. In commenting on the data contained in the and that the leveling out of the atmosphere’s methane figure above. Nature 393: 447-450. “methane’s contribution to combined radiative forcing that would otherwise have anthropogenic radiative forcing. The results of their analysis indicated that methane concentrations “show renewed growth from the end of 2006 or beginning of 2007 until the most recent measurements.

S. and Porter.. E. 2002. Brailsford. Langenfelds.E.W. the greater the sea-to-air flux of DMS).P. and Lawrimore. Ehhalt.) State of the Climate in 2007.1029/2008GL036037. the greater the cloud albedo and the reflection of solar radiation)..J. Etheridge. Atmospheric methane: Trends and cycles of sources and sinks. Masarie..A.Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing    Dlugokencky. M. Francey. E. A. 2008. P.A. the less the input of solar radiation to the earth’s surface). And in completing the negative feedback loop. and Prather.R. Renewed growth of atmospheric methane. M. Salameh.G. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Krummel. K.K. (2000).. and Dlugokencky...R. (1987) discussed the plausibility of a multi-stage negative feedback process. 2. Allison. Methane. Cunnold. Simmonds. M. pp.S. Harth.043. and Rasmussen. Butenhoff.. In: Levinson. 2001. A history of ð13C in atmospheric CH4 from the Cape Grim Air Archive and Antarctic firn air. Since the publication of Charlson et al. J. R. E. Lowe.H. for example. Schnell. Journal of Geophysical Research 99: 17.H.? Is it powerful enough to counter the threat of greenhouse gas-induced global warming? According to the findings of Sciare et al. Cambridge University Press. Lang. But just how strong is the negative feedback phenomenon proposed by Charlson et al.02117. it may well be able to do just that..A. One review.J. P.. 1994. states that “major links in the feedback chain proposed by Charlson et al. and Kasischke. (1987) have a sound physical basis.. Langenfelds. and Rowland. I. USA. Manning. D. Khalil. whereby warming-induced increases in the emission of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) from the world’s oceans tend to counteract any initial impetus for warming. Geophysical Research Letters 24: 857860. 1997. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 14: 41-49. The trend in atmospheric methane ð13C and implications for constraints on the global methane budget. R. The growth rate and distribution of atmospheric methane.. Lowe.J.. J.. G.. J.M. Environmental Science & Technology 10.. NY.G. Geophysical Research Letters 35: 10. K.P. which is dependent upon the availability of cloud condensation nuclei on which the droplets form (the more cloud condensation nuclei.643. Wang.. L. 245-287.M.R.. 2000.7.. D.A.L. D. these researchers found that a sea surface temperature increase of only 1°C was sufficient to increase the atmospheric DMS concentration by as much as 50 percent. and Bromley. Coram.C. P. Dimethyl Sulfide More than two decades ago. 1999.. the more and smaller the cloud droplets). The basic tenet of their hypothesis was that the global radiation balance is significantly influenced by the albedo of marine stratus clouds (the greater the cloud albedo. F.A.L. 45 ... New York. In examining 10 years of DMS data from Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean. B. L. This finding suggests that the degree of warming typically predicted to accompany a doubling of the air’s CO2 content would increase the atmosphere’s DMS concentration by a factor of three or more. and Manning. K.. D. and Steele.C. R. C.P. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89: S27. M. 2007. Steele. E. Prinn. The 1991-1992 atmospheric methane anomaly: Southern hemisphere 13C decrease and growth rate fluctuations. Lassey. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases.. R. C. M. H. O’Doherty.L. Manning. R. 2000).M. P..B.S.. Geophysical Research Letters 29: 10.M. 2001. Rigby. (Eds.J. Walter. Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 23.1029/2001GL014521. Charlson et al. M. Fraser. and Masarie. D.J.F.R. P. Weiss. L.J. S. D. Lang. in turn. Huang.M.C. Simpson. D.H.” and that there is “compelling observational evidence to suggest that DMS and its atmospheric products participate significantly in processes of climate regulation and reactive atmospheric chemistry in the remote marine boundary layer of the Southern Hemisphere” (Ayers and Gillett..1021/es061791t. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 499-502. Muhle. much empirical evidence has been gathered in support of its several tenets.C. D. Measurements of an anomalous global methane increase during 1998.W.631-23. R. C.P. The albedo of these clouds. is known to be a function of cloud droplet concentration (the more and smaller the cloud droplets.K. Blake. P. noted that the cloud condensation nuclei concentration often depends upon the flux of biologically produced DMS from the world’s oceans (the higher the sea surface temperature. Steele.M.’s initial hypothesis... Implications of the recent fluctuations in the growth rate of tropospheric methane. R. Dlugokencky.. L. 2008. Lowe. providing what they call a “very important” negative feedback that could potentially offset the original impetus for warming. Charlson et al.R..

JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series greenhouse gas concentrations. (2000). and Other research has shown that this same chain of Baboukas et al. Sunda et al. say this observation provides even events can be set in motion by means of phenomena more support for “the existence of a positive oceannot discussed in Charlson et al. Toole and Siegel find seasonal investigation. because concentrations acute oxidative stress such as exposure to high levels of DMS and its oxidation products (MSA and nssof UVR.’s original hypothesis.” influence on seasonal planktonic succession scenarios where DMS may be accurately predicted as a function and food-web structure.Climate Change Reconsidered    found to be closely related to SST anomalies. there is every reason These results—which Toole and Siegel confirmed to believe that the same negative feedback via an analysis of the Dacey et al. an exclusive oxidation stratospheric ozone and the shoaling of ocean mixed product of DMS.. which they refer to as the Mihalopoulos (2002).. is “consistent rapidly as it warmed thereafter to about 1100. they say that “UVR doses report the results of nine years of measurements of will increase as a result of observed decreases in methanesulfonate (MS-). the MS.” has a substantial influence on DMS yield in the short In a newer study of this phenomenon.74 nmol m-3 in the summer. words. and potentially confirms the findings of Sciare et al. whereupon a decline in both temperature and (particulate and dissolved dimethylsulfonioproDMS concentration set in that continued until just pionate) “dramatically increase under conditions of before sunrise. who measured seasonal “bloom-forced regime. (2002) feedback. in their words.. Baboukas et al.g. above the Austral Ocean. too. for example. 2001)—suggest. which they call the “stress-forced 1997 through October 1999. Such was also the case while more than 82 percent of the variability is in the diurnal studies: DMS concentrations were explained by UVR(325) [ultraviolet radiation at 325 lowest when it was coldest (just before sunrise).” and seasonal increases in SST.’s derived from satellite observations to the depth of the hypothesis was the study of Kouvarakis and climatological mixed layer.anomalies in the rainwater were 46 . “the potential of a global change-DMS-climate Also of note in this regard.g.87 nmol m-3 in the winter to a high of bacterial indices for abundance and productivity 3. via their continental shelf.” In addition.” which “are a function of mixed layer SO42-) rise dramatically in response to both diurnal depth.” who demonstrated that intracellular DMS further rise to the time of maximum temperature at concentration and its biological precursors 2000. 2002). “further increasing cloud condensing nuclei. precursor (DMS).” For the other 85 percent of variations of gaseous DMS and its oxidation the world’s marine waters. they demonstrate that products—non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO42-) and modeled surface DMS concentrations are independent methanesulfonic acid (MSA)—at a remote coastal of chlorophyll and are a function of the mixed layer location in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea from May depth alone. and that it could Study (Steinberg et al. going or insignificantly correlated with phytoplankton and from a low of 0. Toole and term. one of the most important discovered that the depth of the surface mixing-layer DMS sources of the world. seasonal variations in vertical mixing.. atmosphere feedback on the biogenic sulfur cycle Simo and Pedros-Alio (1999). of the ratio of the amount of surface chlorophyll More directly supportive of Charlson et al. Boyd and Their data. rose nm]. DMS concentrations tracked that “DMS biological production rates are negatively sea surface temperature (SST) almost perfectly. in their words. In the For oligotrophic regimes.” Specifically. after with recent laboratory results (e.S. via a number of photo-induced (and thereby Siegel (2004) note that it has been shown to operate mixing-depth mediated) influences on several as described above in the 15 percent of the world’s complex physiological phenomena.” which. which they dipped slightly and then experienced a 2002). in rainwater at Amsterdam Island. open-ocean seasonal variation with higher values in summer. as well as the diurnal regime. layers as a result of global warming (e. in phytoplankton communities should increase their line with the seasonal variation of its gaseous DMS production and ventilation to the atmosphere. Consequently.” So how does the warming-induced DMS variation of DMS during two intensive measurement negative feedback cycle operate in these waters? campaigns conducted in September 1997.” and that “in response. (1998) 1992-1994 phenomenon would operate in the case of the longorganic sulfur time-series that was sampled in concert term warming that could arise from increasing with the U.” This relationship. in their substantially mute the climatic impacts of those gases. as do longer-term oceans “consisting primarily of high latitude. revealed “a well distinguished Doney. and equatorial upwelling regions.

J. which operates over the other 15 percent. S. Mihalopoulos.. and Warren. and Gillett. and Pedros-Alio.co2science . 2001. A. Howse.C.A. R. D.. Idso. for example.F.J..1029/2004GL019581. and Knap. Modeling regional responses by marine pelagic ecosystems to global climate change. 1999. P. Additional information on this topic. N. F. Kouvarakis. Charlson. Dacey. R. 1990). J. References Ayers. and Dentener. Nature 418: 317-320. 2004. D.” This second DMS-induced negative-feedback cycle.G.377. Temporal variability of dimethylsulfide and dimethylsulfoniopropionate in the Sargasso Sea. Interannual variability of atmospheric dimethylsulfide in the southern Indian Ocean. Sciare. Sunda.P. Journal of Sea Research 43: 275-286. 2000. and Huntsman. the warming they predict in response to future anthropogenic CO2 emissions must be considerably larger than what could actually occur in the real world. as well as all those anticipated to occur in the future. Carlson. A role for soil microbes in moderating the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect? Soil Science 149: 179180. augmenting its atmospheric concentration and thereby increasing vegetative inputs of organic matter to earth’s soils should also produce an impetus for cooling. is another manifestation of the capacity of earth’s biosphere to regulate its affairs in such a way as to maintain climatic conditions over the vast majority of the planet’s surface within bounds conducive to the continued existence of life. Light-driven cycling of dimethylsulfide (DMS) in the Sargasso Sea: Closing the loop. 2002. 1987. Interannual variability of methanesulfonate in rainwater at Amsterdam Island (Southern Indian Ocean).and ocean-based DMS-driven negative feedbacks to global warming. and Mihalopoulos. Nature 402: 396-399. Seasonal variation of dimethylsulfide in the gas phase and of methanesulfonate and non-sea-salt sulfate in the aerosols phase in the Eastern Mediterranean atmosphere. R.W. R. Overview of the US JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS): a decade-scale look at ocean biology and biogeochemistry.W.A. Michaels. Steinberg. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 26.php. can be found at http://www. N. A. Baboukas. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10.. which operates over 85 percent of the world’s marine waters and complements the first DMSinduced negative-feedback cycle. and in spite of the overwhelming empirical evidence for both land. Simo. D.A. M.. Nevertheless. G.J. C. 1990. N. 2002. F. Atmospheric Environment 36: 929-938.1029/2001GL014130. Lovelock. S.R.K. Geophysical Research Letters 29: 10. W.... 47 .J. atmospheric sulfur.Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing    playing out a coupled global change-DMS-climate feedback. and Wakeham.H. it has been suggested that a DMS-induced negative climate feedback phenomenon also operates over the terrestrial surface of the globe. A. Idso (1990) hypothesized that because atmospheric CO2 is an effective aerial fertilizer.B.. G. Andrea.J. Kieber. Bates. where the volatilization of reduced sulfur gases from soils may be just as important as marine DMS emissions in enhancing cloud albedo (Idso.. and Doney. E. Deep Sea Research 45: 2085-2104. N. Oceanic phytoplankton.G... C. Johnson. Atmospheric Environment 36: 5131-5139. S. even in the absence of surface warming. In addition. cloud albedo and climate. Kiene. S. Sciare.F. 1998.H. and Siegel. and Mihalopoulos. J. Boyd. R. the effects of these processes have not been fully incorporated into today’s state-of-the-art climate models. Nature 326: 655-661. D. and noting that additions of organic matter to a soil tend to increase the amount of sulfur gases emitted therefrom.E. On the basis of experiments that showed soil DMS emissions to be positively correlated with soil organic matter content. 2002. An antioxidant function for DMSP and DMS in marine algae.A. 2000. J. It is very possible these biologically driven phenomena could entirely compensate for the warming influence of all greenhouse gas emissions experienced to date.W. 2002.369-26. in all its variety and richness. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 48: 1405-1447.O.P. Role of vertical mixing in controlling the oceanic production of dimethyl sulphide. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. S. Michaels. DMS and its oxidation products in the remote marine atmosphere: implications for climate and atmospheric chemistry. Hence.

in fact.” model of the planet’s atmosphere to calculate the How significant is this choice? Anderson et al.9 Wm at the calculation.. p. based on “the total forcing the IR radiative forcing at the earth’s surface for required to match climate model simulations with aerosols encountered in the outflow from northeastern observed temperature changes. in the words of than the 1 to 2 Wm change in the globally averaged Anderson et al.” These temperature with the observed change over some values. based on measurements made by the MarineThe first approach utilizes known physical and Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer from chemical laws and assumes nothing about the the NOAA Ship Ronald H. As a result of this considerable contrast. which is 2001) despite their potentially large forcing.. they used high-resolution spectra to obtain is inverse calculation.” Asia. who note there are two different ways by scale climate models currently consider aerosol IR which the aerosol forcing of climate may be [infrared] effects (e.8. as CO2. however. 2007-I. leading them to estimates are too low.” During the large Indonesian fires of calculation is employed. the results “differ greatly” September-December 1997. Many studies suggest the predict regional and seasonal values of solar radiation radiative forcing of aerosols may be as large as. in their words. that if forward surface. or absorption in the atmosphere with underestimation larger than. highly varied optical increases since pre-industrial times is 1 to 2 Wm-2.” according to Anderson et Chou et al.g. By way of comparison. Total Aerosol Effect calculate the amount of solar radiation absorbed in the atmosphere over equatorial Africa and compared the The IPCC estimates the net effect of all aerosols is to results with the predictions of three general produce a cooling effect. can cause Aerosol uncertainties and the problems they differences in the surface IR flux between 7 and 25 -2 generate figure prominently in a study by Anderson et Wm (Sokolik et al. while it was more than 25 Wm-2 variability not forced by anthropogenic emissions) is at the surface of the sea in the vicinity of Indonesia..4 Wm-2 2 “considerably greater” than that derived by inverse at the top of the atmosphere.7 Wm-2 (IPCC.8.” employ? “Unfortunately. Consequently.. the radiative and “even the sign of the total forcing is in question.” In an based. on “knowledge of the pertinent attempt to persuade climate modelers to rectify this aerosol physics and chemistry. for equal loadings. Jacobson. climatic effects of aerosols over earth’s major oceans. with a total direct radiative circulation models of the atmosphere. Aerosols earlier by Wild (1999).. in Characterization Experiment-Asia. the radiative forcing due to atmospheric biases of up to 30 Wm-2. (2003) report that “mineral surface IR forcing caused by greenhouse gas aerosols have complex. the scientists determined that “daytime surface -2 where the aerosol forcing is computed from what is IR forcings are often a few Wm and can reach required to match the calculated change in almost 10 Wm-2 for large aerosol loadings.” the importance of aerosol IR forcing which should be So which approach do climate models typically included in climate model simulations. 4).” and “only a few largeal.1. Tegen et al. properties that. (2002) analyzed aerosol optical al.. and by 5. This work forcing of -0. The first is forward calculation. “to the extent that climate models surface IR forcing caused by greenhouse gas rely on the results of inverse calculations. the increases since pre-industrial times” and “highlight possibility of circular reasoning arises. 1998).Climate Change Reconsidered    These latter results are similar to those obtained 2. “are comparable to or larger -2 period of time. this effort revealed that “aerosols reduce aerosols derived by forward calculation is the annual-mean net downward solar flux by 5.” The second approach situation. noted by Vogelmann et al.” impetus for cooling at the top of the atmosphere was which implies that “natural variability (that is. 48 . The second approach. who used a comprehensive set of collocated surface and satellite observations to 2. Brown during the Aerosol outcome of the calculation. more than 10 Wm-2. the scientific literature indicates these atmospheric aerosol concentrations. work. the globally averaged Vogelmann et al. account for spatial and temporal variations in However. in their words. so much so. 1996. “virtually all climate model studies that have properties retrieved from the satellite-mounted Seaincluded anthropogenic aerosol forcing as a driver of viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and climate change have used only aerosol forcing values used them in conjunction with a radiative transfer that are consistent with the inverse approach.5 Wm-2 and an additional indirect cloud revealed that the climate models did not properly albedo forcing of -0. computed. report that the negative forcing of anthropogenic In general. (2003). is based on matching residuals.

.” We agree. the radiative cooling influence of atmospheric aerosols (many of which are produced by anthropogenic activities) must prevail. broken hair filaments.” and “one can easily imagine the [IR] influence on cloud cover. despite some two decades of intervening work. and appears rather constant during the year..” Schwartz thus contends that climate model predictions of CO2-induced global warming “are limited at present by uncertainty in radiative forcing of climate change over the industrial period. consequently. which they lump together under the category of “dead biological matter. these particles were restricted to cultureforming units. ready to be lifted again in resuspension.” and that “this disregard of the biological particles requires a new attitude.co2science. 49 . neither the central value nor the uncertainty range has changed.” In a brief summation of their” Schwartz opined that this continuing uncertainty “precludes meaningful model evaluation by comparison with observed global temperature change or empirical determination of climate sensitivity.Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing    much larger than climate models currently indicate. whether produced directly or shed during the seasons. which they say “have now been carried out at several geographical locations covering all seasons of the year and many characteristic environments. (2) Biological (Terrestrial).” and that it “raises questions regarding claims of having reproduced observed large-scale changes in surface temperature over the 20th century. Coming to much the same conclusion was the study of Jaenicke et al. marine plankton and bacteria are excellent ice nuclei. including reviews of aerosols not discussed here. they write that “the impression prevails that the biological material. climate forcing and feedback and global precipitation distribution.” In addition.” which surely suggests that even the best climate models of the day are wholly inadequate for this purpose. they note that many PBAPs. Additional information on this topic.” The bottom line.” Jaenicke et al. Originally. and those particles should be taken into account in understanding and modeling atmospheric processes.” Schwartz (2004) also addressed the subject of uncertainty as it applies to the role of aerosols in climate models. human and animal epithelial cells. Noting that the National Research Council (1979) concluded that “climate sensitivity [to CO2 doubling] is likely to be in the range 1. which they denominate primary biological atmospheric particles or PBAPs. Our review of important aerosol studies continues below with a separate discussion of four important aerosol categories: (1) Biological (Aquatic). he says “the need for reducing the uncertainty from its present estimated value by at least a factor of 3 and perhaps a factor of 10 or more seems inescapable if the uncertainty in climate sensitivity is to be reduced to an extent where it becomes useful for formulating policy to deal with global change. sits on surfaces. shed feather fractions. the German researchers say “the overall conclusion can only be that PBAPs are a major fraction of atmospheric aerosols. is that “inferences about the causes of surface warming over the industrial period and about climate sensitivity may therefore be in error. (3) Non-Biological (Anthropogenic). suggesting a probable net anthropogenic-induced climatic signal that must be very close to zero and incapable of producing what the IPCC refers to as the “unprecedented” warming of the twentieth century. php under the heading Aerosols. parts of insects. the PBAP fraction is ~20 percent of the total aerosol. including pollen.” With respect to the meteorological and climatic relevance of these particles. but they also include fragments of living and dead organisms and plant debris.” and. who reviewed the status of research being conducted on biological materials in the atmosphere. Either the air temperature record they rely on is in error or the warming. Over much of the planet’s surface.” In describing their own measurements and those of others. is due to something other than anthropogenic CO2 emissions. which is dominated by uncertainty in forcing by aerosols. etc. that “the biosphere must be a major source for directly injected biological particles. mold and viruses. “it is likely that in another 20 years it will still not be possible to specify the climate sensitivity with [an] uncertainty range appreciably narrower than it is at present. (2007). they note that “the IPCCReport of 2007 does not even mention these particles. if real. bacteria.” Indeed. and are comparable to sea salt over the oceans and mineral particles over the continents. in the words of Anderson et al. can be found at http://www.” and that if this situation is not improved.” However. report that “by number and volume. and (4) Non-Biological (Natural). including “decaying vegetation.5°C” and that “remarkably.

M. P-K. M-D.Climate Change Reconsidered    studies. Flatau. and Minnett. K. Charlson. 1996. Averyt. “This Vogelmann. and Bergstrom. H.. Qin. Journal of Geophysical of a negative feedback mechanism in the global Research 104: 27. J.A.Z. and Fung.. M. Rodhe. S. D. (1987) have a sound of which have been verified by subsequent scientific 50 .. Journal of the Air & Waste Hopke et al. (Eds. Matthias-Maser. (1999) analyzed weekly Management Association 54: 1351-1359. Marquis. R. or DMS. and Heintzenberg. result. They Charlson et al. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth phenomenon then leads to the creation of more and Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on brighter clouds that reflect more incoming solar Climate Change. dimethylsulphoniopropionate.) Cambridge University Press.. Discrepancies between model-calculated compounds that are oxidized in the atmosphere to and observed shortwave atmospheric absorption in areas sulfate and methane sulfonate and could be evidence with high aerosol loadings. atmosphere. M. thereby providing a cooling Chen. concentrations of 24 different airborne particulates Sokolik. 2003. Global direct radiative forcing due to on this complex hypothesis..E. Biological (Aquatic) along with pertinent evidence reported in many peerreviewed scientific papers on this subject.” forcing of climate. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 59: 748-757. Atlantic Ocean about 400 km south of Iceland. 2007. there is increased biogenic 30: 10. Simo and Pedros-Alio multicomponent anthropogenic and natural aerosols.J. measured at the northernmost manned site in the Modeling the radiative characteristics of airborne mineral world—Alert. “suggests that as the K. and Gruber. Aerosol sulphide. Journal of Geophysical 1980 to 1991.L. as do seasonal variations in vertical mixing in Climate: A Scientific Assessment. (1987) described a multi-stage conclude that “major links in the feedback chain negative feedback phenomenon. R. leading to the creation of greater amounts of acidic aerosols that IPCC.. O. in the surface waters of the world’s radiative forcing derived from SeaWiFS-retrieved aerosol oceans. where the gas is oxidized. cleavage of dimethylsulphoniopropionate in the North Omnipresence of biological material in the atmosphere.. Manning. This Basis. S. Climate phytoplankton.B. P. Several recent studies have shed additional light Jacobson. M.M.. conclude that “climate-controlled mixing controls Schwartz. that links biology with climate change. and that the yearTegen. A.. Geophysical Research Letters temperature rises. 2. that stimulates primary production in marine Boucher. I. National Academy of the longer term.J. R.. Canada—from aerosols at infrared wavelengths. S. 2003. This enhanced process leads to the forcing by aerosols—a hazy picture. climate system. UK. 2007-I. O.” Ayers and Gillett (2000) summarized relevant empirical evidence collected at Cape Grim.361-27.. which leads in turn to the evolution of greater amounts of dimethyl Chou.. sulfur signal was strongly correlated with the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. Markowicz. Nature 380: 419-422.. radiation back to space. T. Science 300: 1103production of more copious quantities of 1104.B.E. 1999. They found concentrations of biogenic Research 103: 8813-8826.. S. Carbon Dioxide and term. and Wang. Northwest Territories. S. R.N. Z.1029/2002GL016829. Lacis. 2004. Washington.8. The influence on to-year variability in the strength of the biogenic climate forcing of mineral aerosols from disturbed soils. Knutti. Uncertainty requirements in radiative DMS production over vast regions of the ocean. Cambridge.M. Solomon.W. Tignor. 1998. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science function as cloud condensation nuclei. 2001. USA. Schwartz. and H. I. Szczodrak. I. A.” the authors say. DC. Environmental Chemistry 4: 217-220. (1999) used satellite imagery and in situ experiments Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 1551-1568. Tasmania. sulfur.J. Larger quantities of DMS diffuse into the optical properties.371. to study the production of DMS by enzymatic Jaenicke. finding that the depth of the surface mixing-layer has a substantial influence on DMS yield in the short National Research Council. M.. warming. 2002. 1979.. M.L. Chan.. production of the reduced sulfur precursor Wild. were low in winter but high in summer. which observations led them to Sciences. several components proposed by Charlson et al. M. influence that counters the initial impetus for Miller. P.2. Toon. including sulfate and methane sulfonate.. The References process begins with an initial impetus for warming Anderson.

74 nmol m-3 in the summer. P. Sciare. F.php. Hopke. Y.. C. and Paatero. and Mihalopoulos. atmospheric sulfur.. N.7 of this report. Mixed multiway analysis of airborne particle composition data.J.J. References Ayers. day-to-day. Mihalopoulos. Their study revealed “a clear seasonal variation with a factor of 20 in amplitude between its maximum in January (austral summer) and minimum in July-August (austral winter). who investigated the seasonal variations of gaseous DMS and its oxidation products—non-sea-salt sulfate (nssSO42-) and methanesulfonic acid (MSA)—at a remote coastal location in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea from May 1997 through October 1999.... Baboukas. Fuzzi. 2002. O’Dowd. S. Decesari. Ceburnis. M. The same was also true of aerosol nss-SO42which varied from 0. going from a low of 0. and thereby either reverse. Atmospheric Environment 36: 929-938. Yoon. Andrea. 2004. or slow the warming that initiated this negative feedback phenomenon. and Warren.” In addition. subject/a/aerosolsbioaqua.. J. N. Journal of Chemometrics 13: 343-352. Sciare.E. Xie. cloud albedo and climate.04 nmol m-3 to a summertime high of 0. P.” More specifically. and Mihalopoulos. “further confirms the findings of Sciare et al. and Dentener. stop. noting that “this is the first time that a direct link between SSTs [sea surface temperatures] and atmospheric DMS is established for a large oceanic area. G. DMS and its oxidation products in the remote marine atmosphere: implications for climate and atmospheric chemistry. N.. J. G.W. Biogenically driven organic contribution to marine aerosol. Atmospheric Environment 36: 5131-5139 Charlson.6 to 123. M. S.377. S..” For more about that   study and a newer study by Toole and Siegel (2004). Cavalli. Nature 326: 655-661. (2000). Nature 431: 676-680. as well as the diurnal variation of DMS during two intensive measurement campaigns in September 1997. were followed by a little dip and then a further rise to 2000. 1987. J. rose rapidly thereafter to about 1100. Kouvarakis. (2000) made continuous measurements of atmospheric DMS concentration over the 10-year period 1990-1999 at Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean. Interannual variability of methanesulfonate in rainwater at Amsterdam Island (Southern Indian Ocean). 2002.” Another pertinent study was conducted by Kouvarakis and Mihalopoulos (2002). Seasonal variation of dimethylsulfide in the gas phase and of methanesulfonate and non-sea-salt sulfate in the aerosols phase in the Eastern Mediterranean atmosphere. more studies confirm the Charlson et al... Such was also the case in the diurnal study: DMS concentrations were lowest just before sunrise. In the seasonal investigation. and Putaud. A related study of methanesulfonate (MS-) in rainwater at Amsterdam Island. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 26. Mircea. clearly indicating a link between DMS and climate changes. D. 1999. As time passes. Y. E. 2000. DMS concentrations tracked sea surface temperature (SST) almost perfectly.99 nmol m-3. J.P. Interannual variability of atmospheric dimethylsulfide in the southern Indian Ocean. R. they give off greater quantities of gases that lead to the production of greater quantities of cloud condensation nuclei.-P. including reviews of newer publications as they become available.D.J. 2000.” They found that a temperature increase of only 1°C was sufficient to increase the atmospheric DMS concentration by as much as 50 percent on a monthly basis. Lovelock. which create more and brighter clouds. M. (2002). that reflect more incoming solar radiation back to space.G.co2science.C.O. in the authors’ words. Facchini. Oceanic phytoplankton..” Sciare et al. The normal hour-to hour. they found DMS anomalies to be “closely related to sea surface temperature anomalies.369-26. they noted there is “compelling observational evidence to suggest that DMS and its atmospheric products participate significantly in processes of climate regulation and reactive atmospheric chemistry in the remote marine boundary layer of the Southern Hemisphere. Journal of Sea Research 43: 275-286. MSA concentrations exhibited a similar seasonal variation to that displayed by DMS.87 nmol m-3 in the winter to a high of 3.9 nmol m-3 in going from winter to summer.. F. can be found at http://www. 51 .Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing  physical basis. Additional information on this topic. hypothesis that as marine phytoplankton are exposed to rising temperatures. and season-to-season behaviors of the phytoplanktonic inhabitants of earth’s marine ecosystems seem to be effectively combating extreme environmental temperature changes. by Baboukas et al. ranging from a wintertime low of 0. whereupon a decline set in that continued until just before sunrise. see Section 2. and Gillett.K.

Peñuelas and Llusia calculate 52 . earth’s terrestrial plants have a additional numbers of “Populus. which constitute a major fraction of Vuorinen et al. is the growing realization that “isoprene and decreases in BVOC emissions. significantly by forming cloud condensation nuclei.” alcohols. since Peñuelas and Llusia report that What is more. one example being Constable et (Peñuelas et al.Climate Change Reconsidered    Simo.. according to the Monks (2000) “have suggested that one of the reasons two scientists. who found no effect of elevated CO2 on Of particular importance within the context of monoterpene emissions from Ponderosa pine and global climate change.. (2004). Role of vertical mixing that “global warming over the past 30 years could in controlling the oceanic production of dimethyl sulphide. tendency to operate in this manner more effectively as which are major emitters. carbonyls. it can be CO2-induced increases in BVOC emissions in the appreciated that with respect to the claimed ill effects identical species of oak studied by Vuorinen et al. explanation for this wide range of results comes from there are likely to be two strong ameliorative Baraldi et al. could increase BVOC Toole. esters. alkenes. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. might confer protection against high plants. approximately 10 percent.” evaporative effects that might cool the plant directly.. Biological (Terrestrial) and the activity of the responsible enzymes (Litvak et al.” dimethylsulfide (DMS) in the Sargasso Sea: Closing the There may also be other phenomena that favor loop. who worked with cabbage BVOCs. 2004. (1999). D. 1996). and acids. or to aid wound sealing surroundings in addition to any physiological or after damage (Pichersky and Gershenzon. and Pedros-Alio. With leaf area per unit ground area. which is typically more strongly 750 ppm in 100-ppm increments for a period of four expressed at higher temperatures. R. Shulaev et al. terpenes. Peñuelas and Llusia GL019581. and Siegel.. who—after exposing sections of phenomena that act to protect the planet’s plants: (1) a southern California chaparral ecosystem to the aerial fertilization effect of atmospheric CO2 atmospheric CO2 concentrations ranging from 250 to enrichment.A..A. who studied temperatures” by acting “as scavengers of reactive monoterpene emissions from oak seedlings. 1997). might greatly increase the air’s CO2 content rises. An of CO2-induced global warming on earth’s vegetation. include acting as “deterrents against plants emit the aerosol isoprene might be to cool the pathogens and herbivores. note that “the increased release of nitrogen into the biosphere by man probably also enhances BVOC emissions by increasing the level of carbon fixation 2. and to plant BVOC emissions with increasing atmospheric communicate with other plants and organisms CO2 concentrations. (2001) observed temperatures. Some of radiation interception. Eucalyptus or Pinus. D. Light-driven cycling of global emissions by an additional 30-45 percent.” They also say BVOCs provide a means “to attract Not all experiments have reported increases in pollinators and herbivore predators. Staudt et al. in fact. 1995.1029/2004 earth’s plants within this context.8. biosphere too.” The conversion of abandoned agricultural Just as marine phytoplankton respond to rising lands to forests and the implementation of planned temperatures by giving off gases that ultimately lead reforestation projects should help the rest of the to less global warming.” al.” If this is indeed the case. BVOC emissions.3. (2001). and a further 2-3°C rise in the mean global temperature . (2004). this diverse As a result.” A good introduction to this subject is provided by Most intriguing of all. C.” noting that Shallcross and the functions of these substances. perhaps. who BVOC emissions might impact climate change. Some studies. such as those of monoterpenes. so too do terrestrial plants. say biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) Peñuelas and Llusia say that “BVOCs generate large constitute “one of nature’s biodiversity treasures. and Loreto et al. in the opinion of Peñuelas and Douglas fir trees.” In most of the cases respect to temperature.” quantities of organic aerosols that could affect climate Comprised of isoprene. oxygen species produced [within plants] under high On the other hand. and (2) the years—concluded that “BVOC emission can remain tendency for rising air temperatures and CO2 nearly constant as rising CO2 reduces emission per concentrations to spur the production of higher unit leaf area while stimulating biomass growth and concentrations of heat-stress-reducing BVOCs. have increased the BVOC global emissions by Nature 402: 396-399. alkanes. 2002). have reported Llusia. is how increased the review paper of Peñuelas and Llusia (2003). 1999. they say “there should be a net cooling of group of substances is produced by a variety of the Earth’s surface during the day because of processes occurring in many plant tissues.

This work demonstrated.000 ppm. for example. and the increases are often large. it can be photo53 . Kuhn and Kesselmeier (2000) collected lichens from an open oak woodland in central California. (1998). the three Finnish researchers found that total monoterpene emissions in the elevated-CO2-only treatment were 5 percent greater than those in the ambient CO2. ambient temperature treatment. however. make a point of noting. which led the authors to conclude. they conclude that “plants grown under elevated CO2 will accumulate excess carbon and that at least a portion of this excess carbon is funneled into an increased production of BVOCs.” More generally. O’Dowd et al.” which have many positive implications in the realms of both biology and climate. They studied the two phenomena (and their interaction) within closed-top chambers built on a naturally seeded stand of the trees in eastern Finland that had been exposed to the four treatments—ambient CO2 and ambient temperature. which Jasoni et al. A similar study was conducted by O’Dowd et al. In the presence of both elevated CO2 and elevated temperature. however. note that “aerosol particles produced over forested areas may affect climate by acting as nuclei for cloud condensation. and studied their uptake of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) in a dynamic cuvette system under controlled conditions in the laboratory. (2002). there was an increase of fully 126 percent in the total amount of monoterpenes emitted over the growing season. “the amount of monoterpenes released by Scots pines into the atmosphere during a growing season will increase substantially in the predicted future climate. Simultaneously. the plants in the CO2-enriched chambers had 40 percent more biomass than the plants grown in ambient air.” Commenting on this finding. who measured aerosol electrical-mobility size-distributions before and during the initial stage of an atmospheric nucleation event over a boreal forest in Finland. In addition. USA. In fact. (2003) who grew onions from seed for 30 days in individual cylindrical flow-through growth chambers under controlled environmental conditions at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of either 400 or 1. in particular) do indeed experience gasto-particle transformations. spider mites. “confer insect resistance against a major agricultural pest. Their work demonstrated that certain hydrocarbons emitted by vegetation (isoprene and terpenes. organic vapor growth rate measurements were made of particles that nucleated into organic cloud-droplets in the flow-tube cloud chamber of a modified condensation-particle counter. and their photosynthetic rates were 22 percent greater. elevated temperature and elevated CO2—for the prior five years. the CO2-enriched plants exhibited 17-fold and 38-fold increases in emissions of the BVOC hydrocarbons 2-undecanone and 2-tridecanone. aerosols (or biosols) produced from two of these organic acids (cis. ambient CO2 and elevated temperature. OCS was absorbed from the atmosphere by the lichens at a rate that gradually doubled as air temperature rose from approximately 3° to 25°C. measured a number of atmospheric gases and particles in a eucalyptus forest in Portugal and analyzed their observations to see if there was any evidence of biologically produced gases being converted to particles that could function as cloud condensation nuclei. Raisanen et al.” but they say there remain numerous uncertainties involving complex feedback processes “that must be determined if we are to predict future changes in global climate. and that emissions in the elevated-temperature-only treatment were 9 percent less than those in ambient air. ambient temperature and elevated CO2. After making its way into the stratosphere.” Shifting from trees to a much smaller plant.Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing    investigated.) seedlings. produced by oxidation of terpenes in organic vapours released from the canopy. At the end of the study. BVOC emissions tend to increase with atmospheric CO2 enrichment. (2008) conducted an experiment designed to see to what extent a doubling of the air’s CO2 content and a 2°—6°C increase in air temperature might impact the emission of monoterpenes from 20-year-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. Over the five-month growing season of MaySeptember. Why is this significant? OCS is the most stable and abundant reduced sulfur gas in the atmosphere and is thus a major player in determining earth’s radiation budget. Kavouras et al. When optimally hydrated. whereupon the rate of OCS absorption dropped precipitously. as noted above. respectively. reaching a value of zero at 35°C. Jasoni et al.and trans-pinonic acid) comprised as much as 40 percent of the fine particle atmospheric mass during daytime hours. such as cispinonic acid and pinonic acid. in their words. that newly formed aerosol particles over forested areas “are composed primarily of organic species.” A number of studies suggest that the phenomena discussed in the preceding paragraphs do indeed operate in the real world.

O3 destruction). et al. Roderick et al.. removal of OCS from the air by this particular species One final beneficial effect of CO2-induced of lichen declines dramatically.. Pinatubo eruption—a unique natural therefore. to enhance the amount turning the implication of this observation into of diffuse solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface something stronger than a mere suggestion. which is documented at some length in Section 2. and Goldstein (2003) recently showed that the nonAlthough BVOCs emitted from terrestrial plants stomatal flux [from the atmosphere to oblivion] both small and large are important to earth’s climate. Kesselmeier. even when changes in other forcing factors. ozone (O3) (Chameides et al. subsequent reduction of the strength of the atmosphere’s greenhouse effect.3 of this typically converted to sulfate aerosol particles that are report. (that is. which finally produces the end result: a greater destruction in an attempt to see if it is enhanced in photosynthetic extraction of CO2 from the air and the parallel fashion to the thinning-induced increase in monoterpene emissions. according to an upper limit above which the surface air Goldstein et al. In the current study. and Niyogi et al. Since the consumption of OCS by lichens is under the 1999). 1998). However. mention three major routes by which O3 exits algae. as documented stratosphere. This being the case. Law et al.5 Gt of carbon from the atmosphere due modulated COS concentrations may play a role in to its diffuse-light-enhancing stimulation of terrestrial keeping earth’s surface air temperature within bounds photosynthesis in the year following the eruption. Once air temperature rises above 25°C.” and that “the exponential suggests yet another way in which their response to increase with temperature was consistent with the atmospheric CO2 enrichment may provide an temperature dependence of monoterpene emissions from the same ecosystem. suggesting O3 was lost via effective counterbalance to the greenhouse properties of CO2. to form SO2. Recent research at a coniferous forest site. which increases the increases in BVOC emissions is the propensity of potential for more OCS to make its way into the BVOCs to destroy tropospheric ozone. concluded that highly reflective of incoming solar radiation and. increased exponentially as a function of temperature trees tend to dominate in this regard. (2004). exactly Additional real-world evidence for the existence of what is implied by the observations of Kuhn and this phenomenon was provided by Gu et al. phenomenon to be generally operative throughout surface deposition. Harley et al. produce an impetus for it to typically been attributed to deposition on nondo so..2 of this stomatal surfaces. as well as oxidized.” for CO2-induced increases in BVOCs. the Mt. Goldstein is the key enzyme for OCS uptake in all higher plants.. With respect to the latter phenomenon. Farquhar and Roderick (2003). (2004). The phenomenon begins with the propensity gas phase reactions with biogenically emitted terpenes before they could escape the forest canopy. take canopies (Roderick et al. which is followed by another important step towards clarifying the issue by the tendency for less internal canopy shading to measuring the effect of forest thinning on O3 enhance whole-canopy photosynthesis (Healey et al. conducive to the continued existence of life. This biological chemical reactions with BVOCs. 1974. biologically of an extra 2. When this happens. and within-canopy gas-phase much of the plant kingdom.. “thermostat” may well be powerful enough to define The first of these exit routes. Goldstein et al. the rate of Reichenau and Esser (2003). 1996). they note that “Kurpius report. 54 . have the capacity to significantly cool the experiment to evaluate the overall climatic sensitivity earth as more and more of them collect above the of the planet—may well have resulted in the removal tropopause. see Section 2. where it can be converted into sulfate by Goldstein et al. For example. 1988.Climate Change Reconsidered    The significance of this process is described and dissociated. For more about OCS. (2003). (2002). but it is also responsible for destroying a lot of physiological control of carbonic anhydrase—which O3. 2001). together with In a study designed to take the next step towards the cloud particles they spawn. Earth’s vegetation is aerosol particles that can reflect more incoming solar responsible for the production of vast amounts of radiation back to space and thereby cool the earth.. while the remainder has such as greenhouse gases.. accounts for 30 percent to 90 percent temperature of the planet may be restricted from of total ecosystem O3 uptake from the atmosphere rising. which and Goldstein (2003) demonstrated that forest is followed by the ability of enhanced diffuse lighting thinning dramatically enhances monoterpene to reduce the volume of shade within vegetative emissions. Schade (Suraqui et al. more OCS remains in the air. and soil organisms—we could expect this the air near the earth’s surface: leaf stomatal uptake. Abakumova et al.

there is substantial evidence to suggest that the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content may well lead to an overall reduction in vegetative isoprene emissions. C. Lindsay.. Oechel. which constitute the most prominent photosynthetic force on the planet. while at the same time enhancing vegetative productivity.M. E. Specifically. P. and Wofsy. This procedure involved the use of a masticator to mechanically “chew up” smaller unwanted trees and leave their debris on site. J. 2001. subject/a/aerosolsterr. these observations provide a conclusive picture that the chemical loss of O3 is due to reactions with BVOCs emitted in a similar manner as terpenes.L. 1988. V. Vesala. Paw U. while total ecosystem O3 destruction was “partitioned to differentiate loss due to gas-phase chemistry from stomatal uptake and deposition. the metabolic activity of lichens and the presence of sulfate aerosol particles in the atmosphere that reflect incoming solar radiation.. they reveal a direct connection between the metabolic activity of trees and the propensity for the atmosphere to produce clouds. L. a wealth of real-world evidence is beginning to suggest that both rising air temperatures and CO2 concentrations significantly increase desirable vegetative BVOC emissions. can be found at http://www.. In each case.Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing    In a ponderosa pine plantation in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. A. W. Monoterpene emission responses to elevated CO2 in a Mediterraneantype ecosystem. a management procedure to improve forest health and optimize tree growth was initiated on May 11. K... Russak. there is reason to believe that the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content will help to reduce the ongoing rise in the air’s O3 concentration. and that this phenomenon has a large number of extremely important and highly beneficial biospheric consequences. Schmid. Y. 1996. E.M. F.. This being the case... Running.” Goldstein et al.S. Richardson. we wonder how anyone can presume to decide what should or should not be done about anthropogenic CO2 emissions. report that both the destruction of ozone due to gas-phase chemistry and emissions of monoterpenes increased dramatically with the onset of thinning.” Indeed. which reduced plantation green leaf biomass by just over half.C.T. G. Falge. Davis. Evaluation of long-term changes in radiation. and the increased presence of BVOCs caused by rising CO2 and an increase in diffuse solar radiation. and that these phenomena continued in phase with each other thereafter. and Kiang. particularly from trees. Lee. they say that “considered together. New Phytologist 161: 17-21. Fuentes. Anthoni. As a result.co2science. D. K.J. S. In conclusion..H.. W. monoterpene mixing ratios and fluxes were measured hourly within the plantation canopy. Verma. B. 2000). making them larger than isoprene emissions on a global scale. F. Malhi. Gu.. which may well lead to an overall increase in vegetative terpene emissions. V.. and energy flux densities... including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Bryant. S. 2004... The role of biogenic hydrocarbons in 55 . Feigelson. which should be a boon to the entire biosphere. Hastings. S. G. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82: 2415-2434.. R. T. W. Chameides. Meyers... P.. K. Katul. and Stadnik. Baldocchi.. which lead to the creation of ozone (Poisson et al... J. 2000 and continued through June 15. Rapparini. D. cloudiness. the relationship is one that is self-protecting of the biosphere. R. X.. Law. Munger. W. Baraldi. In addition. C.. 2000. say their results “suggest that total reactive terpene emissions might be roughly a factor of 10 higher than the typically measured and modeled monoterpene emissions. Journal of Climatology 9: 1319-1327. Goldstein.. they “infer that the massive increase of O3 flux [from the atmosphere to oblivion] during and following mastication is driven by loss of O3 through chemical reactions with unmeasured terpenes or closely related BVOCs whose emissions were enhanced due to wounding [by the masticator].. are significantly greater than vegetative emissions of isoprene..P. and surface temperature on the territory of the former Soviet Union. which lead to the destruction of ozone. USA. S. Simultaneously.V. R. R. Bernhofer.H.W.” and that “we can conceive no other possible explanation for this behavior other than chemical O3 destruction in and above the forest canopy by reactions with BVOCs. Y. and Miglietta. Valentini. Hollinger. R. Olson. K.php. Pilegaard. These findings further demonstrate that the biology of the earth influences the climate of the earth. Oechel.. for it would mean that vegetative emissions of terpenes.” If this proves to be the case.” Goldstein et al.. water vapor. which leads to increased photosynthetic extraction of CO2 from the air. Cheng. FLUXNET: A new tool to study the temporal and spatial variability of ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide. Hence... References Abakumova.. T. H.. it will be a most important finding.. Wilson. Additional information on this topic.

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(1999) calculated that this phenomenon creates a mean negative radiative forcing of -0. Monoterpene and herbivore-induced emissions from cabbage plants grown at elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. Atmospheric Environment 38: 675-682. There has been much discussion about the impact of this phenomenon on regional climates. and Raskin. Shallcross. W. 2006). Aerosol-generating human activities also have a significant impact on local. attention to this topic has centered on highly polluted air from south and southeast Asia that makes its way over the northern Indian Ocean during the dry monsoon season. B. T. (1999) found that water vapor was more likely to form on aerosols that had been altered by human-produced organic solutes. and Noble.8.R.G. 2000. the atmosphere over the sea also carries a considerable burden of anthropogenically produced aerosols from terrestrial sites. the central part of the city had cooled. and Monks. Increase of monoterpene emissions from a pine plantation as a result of mechanical disturbances.1029/2002GL016138. S. or bright streaks that form in layers of marine stratus clouds. Klein.L. India had warmed over recent decades.Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing    dimensional modeling results. and Goldberg. Global dimming: a review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequences. Tree Physiology 21: 437-445.. Atmospheric CO2 stalled. J.. Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on monoterpene emission of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. as well as more wideranging.4. Rambal. Averaged over the surface of the earth both day and night and over the year. Minnis et al. I. 2003. They are created by emissions from ocean-going vessels. Nerg. 2001. Raisanen..L.1029/2002GB002025. 2008. and Esser. P. M.S. S. G. Solar Energy 16: 155-158. Staudt. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. Ship tracks. In some cases. industrial complexes in the Po Valley of Italy. Vuorinen. and Kesselmeier. Solar radiation changes at Mt. J. Effect of elevated CO2 on monoterpene emission of young Quercus ilex trees and its relation to structural and ecophysiological parameters. Norris (2001) looked at cloud cover as the ultimate arbiter of the various competing hypotheses. Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry 36: 157-230. which values are to be compared to the much larger positive radiative forcing of approximately 4 Wm-2 due to a 300 ppm increase in the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration.. On the direct effect of clouds and atmospheric particles on the productivity and structure of vegetation. Stanhill.54°C) may well be explained by aircraftinduced increases in cirrus cloud coverage over that period. T.). 1998. G. Non-Biological (Anthropogenic) There are several ways the activities of humanity lead to the creation of aerosols that have the potential to alter earth’s radiation balance and affect its climate.-M. and Holopainen.E. A.H. finding that daytime low-level oceanic cloud cover increased substantially over the last half of the past century in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres at essentially all hours of the day. P. 1997.. Shulaev. Sahai (1998) found that although suburban areas of Nagpur. Ryyppo. Silverman. Schade. G. Airborne signaling by methyl salicylate in plant pathogen resistance.S. G.. G. M. and Kellomaki. (2004) have calculated that nearly all of the surface warming observed over the United States between 1975 and 1994 (0. these persistent and highly reflective linear patches of low-level clouds generally tend to cool the planet (Ferek et al. S. Tabor. I. Berry. and Goldstein. Oecologia 129: 21-30. Contrails created in the wake of emissions from jet aircraft are one example. If true. T. Schreier et al. D.06 Wm-2 in the Southern Hemisphere. Nature 365: 697-698.P.V. Facchini et al. S. Capaldo et al. because of “increasing concentrations of suspended particulate matter. Atmospheric Environment 34: 1659-1660. J. Roderick.L. this result would imply that little to none of the observed U. 1974. 2001.W. A role for isoprene in biosphere-climate-chemistry feedbacks.. Reddy. 2003. 1993.. warming over that period could be attributed to the concomitant increase in the air’s CO2 content. Sarmiento. especially during the day. climatic phenomena over land. are another example. Is interannual fluctuation of atmospheric CO2 dominated by combined effects of ENSO and volcanic aerosols? Global Biogeochemical Cycles 17: 10. 2. Reichenau..D.” Likewise.. A. A. Katherine after forty years. St..H. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 107: 255-278.16 Wm-2 in the Northern Hemisphere and -0. 2004. H. but adjacent to. R. This finding is indicative of a pervasive net cooling effect.. V. and Cohen. Joffre. 2001.K. In recent years. outside of. Suraqui. Farquhar. and that this 57 . Nature 385: 718-721. Atmospheric Environment 42: 4160-4171. S.

” They say clear-sky solar radiative heating for the winters of man-made aerosols “have a strong influence on cloud 1998 and 1999 decreased at the ocean surface by 12 albedo. both Although this surface-cooling influence is huge. who reviewed numerous mainland Europe for the past quarter-century. they will not “rain out” as quickly and will particular those of clouds. making the largest the last two decades of rapid warming”—when air uncertainty in estimating climate forcing even larger. Ruckstuhl et al. the decline in solar radiation the same order (but opposite in sign) as that of reception discovered by Stanhill and Cohen could greenhouse gases.” temperatures rose by about 1°C after 1980—via Another assessment of the issue was provided by analyses of “aerosol optical depth measurements from Ghan et al. “Clearly. Charlson Ramanathan (2000) in their study of the effects of et al.84 Wm-2. can change are to be useful in formulating emission provide an even greater impetus for climate warming policies. with a global mean forcing estimated to be of to 30 Wm-2. these important phenomena in climate change In a more recent study. In explanation for this observation “is that increases in commenting on this research. And if it is. (2008) deliberations “poses additional uncertainty beyond presented “observational evidence of a strong decline that already recognized by the Intergovernmental in aerosol optical depth over mainland Europe during Panel on Climate Change. it seems.” therefore last longer and cover more of the earth.” model predictions and if estimates of future climate Cleaning up significantly polluted skies. (2001) note that droplet clouds “are the most human-induced pollution over the tropical northern important factor controlling the albedo (reflectivity) Indian Ocean.” Hence.” They rightly produced by the contemporaneous increase in warn that lack of inclusion of the consequences of atmospheric CO2 concentration. it led to a total warming.Climate Change Reconsidered    solar radiation measurement programs around the phenomenon led to the creation of more numerous world to see if there had been any trend in the mean and more highly reflective cloud droplets that had a amount of solar radiation falling on the surface of the tendency to cool the surface below them.” everything from a modest warming to a slight The value of the direct aerosol effect of this radiative cooling.7 findings indicated that the clouds comprising these pollution tracks were composed of small droplets that percent per decade. equivalent to a reduction of 2. Toon (2000) pointed man-made aerosols and other air pollutants have out that when clouds are composed of smaller changed the optical properties of the atmosphere. Rosenfeld (2000) studied there was a significant 50-year downward trend in pollution tracks downwind of urban/industrial this parameter that “has globally averaged 0. They determined In a similar vein. After performing their own analysis of the forcing was approximately 0. 58 . they reduced the magnitude of this range somewhat but the end result still stretched from a combined with the concomitant cloud-induced small cooling influence to a modest impetus for radiative forcing of about 0.” and reported that current best estimates of “the total In consequence of the observed decline in aerosol global mean present-day anthropogenic forcing range concentration of up to 60 percent. in droplets. His Wm-2 per year. where they determined that “mean and hence the temperature of our planet.” which represents there was “a statistically significant increase of solar irradiance under cloud-free skies since the 1980s. as has apparently been the case over Stanhill and Cohen (2001). Canada and Australia.” than does the carbon dioxide that is concurrently Another pertinent observation comes from emitted to them.51 ± 0.” and “both the forcing [of this well be real. and when problem. it represents a tremendous man-induced impetus for cooling] and its magnitude counter-influence to the enhanced greenhouse effect may be even larger than anticipated. it of which effects tend to cool the globe. (2001). earth over the past half-century. [which] now totals 20 Wm-2. the authors state from 3 Wm-2 to -1 Wm-2.” suppressed precipitation by inhibiting further They also concluded that the most probable coalescence and ice precipitation formation.” they concluded. falls right in the mid-range of a similar solar radiative In reviewing these and other advances in the field perturbation documented by Satheesh and of anthropogenic aerosol impacts on clouds. who studied both the positive six specific locations and surface irradiance radiative forcings of greenhouse gases and the measurements from a large number of radiation sites negative radiative forcings of anthropogenic aerosols in Northern Germany and Switzerland.05 complexes in Turkey. “the great radiative surface climate forcing over mainland uncertainty in the radiative forcing must be reduced if Europe of about 1 Wm-2 that “most probably strongly the observed climate record is to be reconciled with contributed to the recent rapid warming in Europe.16 Wm-2.

there are a number of unanswered questions about airborne dust. “while ignoring others. Bovensmann.. C. Non-Biological (Natural) We conclude our section on aerosols with a brief discussion of a non-biological. Behrens.J. S. O. 1999.P. R.J...R. 2008... 2000. and Zaveri. size. and air pollution from terrestrial sources all have effects on temperatures that rival or exceed the likely effect of rising CO2 levels.K.A. J. as was made strikingly clear by Sokolik (1999). and shape of dust particles from ground-based and aircraft measurements? (3) How does one adequately measure and model light absorption by mineral particles? (4) How does one 59 . Palikonda.N. A physically based estimate of radiative forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol. Coen. who with the help of nine colleagues summarized the sentiments of a number of scientists who have devoted their lives to studying the subject. and Cohen. R. M. M. Fischbeck. P. R. S... M.. Bugliaro.K..H. V. A.C. M.199-23. M. Philipona. Toon. and Ramanathan.. Schreier.Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing    Anthropogenic aerosols plainly have a major effect on climate. naturally produced aerosol—dust. Large differences in tropical aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere and Earth’s surface. Nature 405: 60-63. A... Journal of Climate 17: 1671-1685. One might think we would have a pretty good handle on what it does to earth’s climate as it is moved about by the planet’s everactive atmosphere. Saylor.. B. Rosenfeld.C. Durr. E. Sokolik notes state-of-the-art climate models “rely heavily on oversimplified parameterizations” of many important dust-related subject/a/aerononbioanthro.. S. Hegg. 2006. Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 23.S. Nature 401: 257-259. optical and radiative properties of marine stratus: a case study.. 2001. Additional information on this topic.R. L. D.. N. 2001. Dust is about as natural and ubiquitous a substance as there is. K. Science 287: 1793-1796. it is possible the lion’s share of the warming has likely been produced by the removal from the atmosphere of true air pollutants. A. Sahai.co2science. 2001. Cloud albedo enhancement by surface-active organic solutes in growing droplets.. Geophysical Research Letters 35: 10. 2000.. Ruckstuhl.php. K. P.J. Corbett...C. Leung. L.. and Zelenka. Eyring. Minnis. V. J. G. Hobbs. A. R. The evidence is dear contrails created by emissions from jet aircraft.. P. 2000. and Burrows.8. Mircea. P. Has northern Indian Ocean cloud cover changed due to increasing anthropogenic aerosol? Geophysical Research Letters 28: 3271-3274.. Satheesh. Seinfeld. L.. Nature 400: 743-746. Global dimming: a review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequences. Facchini.. Abdul-Razzak. M. R. 1999. and climate. Fuzzi. Laulainen.A. Kulmala. S.C. Kasibhatla. Science 287: 1763-1765. J. Matzler. Reshaping the theory of cloud formation...V. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 61: 9-18. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 5279-5293. J. Heimo. Mannstein. ship tracks created by ocean-going vessels. A. Stanhill. C. 2004. S. and Phan. 2001. Climate change: a case study over India. Nyeki.. B. and Facchini. Zhang. Science 292: 2025-2026.. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 6: 4925-4942. How pollution suppresses rain. Laaksonen. Weller.. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 107: 255-278. M. But such is not the case. R.A..206. Measurements of ship-induced tracks in clouds off the Washington coast. Nenes. Ohmura. Suppression of rain and snow by urban and industrial air pollution. References Capaldo.. P. the group concludes. Wehrli. R. Ghan. including: (1) How does one quantify dust emission rates from both natural and anthropogenic (disturbed) sources with required levels of temporal and spatial resolution? (2) How does one accurately determine the composition. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. 1998. A. Norris. 1998. Easter. K. Kokhanovsky. S. D. Contrails. Durkee.. Ayers. J. Mayer. and Charlson. Y. cirrus trends. Aerosol and cloud effects on solar brightening and the recent rapid warming.W. H.J.1029/2008GL034228.” As a result. With the progress that has been made in recent years in reducing air pollution in developed countries.K. Vuilleumier.5. Effects of ship emissions on sulphur cycling and radiative climate forcing over the ocean. Charlson. A. C... Chapman. Impact of ship emissions on the microphysical.G. R. “the magnitude and even the sign of dust net direct radiative forcing of climate remains unclear. can be found at http://www..J.” According to Sokolik. 2... and Pandis. H. D.D. Ferek. and Nielsen. H.

Tegen et al. Sokolik makes conditions in the late 1960s and early ‘70s. Initial some interesting observations. to adequately measure light absorption by mineral (1986) attributed the drought to large-scale particles is still an “outstanding problem.” to obtain the IR radiative forcing at the surface for In a companion article. for equal loadings. rainfall in the Sahel results from the response of the we will but “see through a glass. Prospero and Lamb aerosols encountered in the outflow from northeastern (2003) report that measurements made from 1965 to Asia.” based on measurements made by the Marine1998 in the Barbados trade winds show large Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer aboard interannual changes in the concentration of dust of the NOAA Ship Ronald H. while Lamb (1978) and Folland et al. Brown during the Aerosol African origin that are highly anticorrelated with the Characterization Experiment-Asia.” especially African summer monsoon to oceanic forcing when it comes to trying to discern the effects of amplified by land-atmosphere interaction. This soil moisture) required to model dust emission rates. anthropogenic in nature or otherwise. “use[d] high-resolution spectra change.” investigations.” And in a massive understatement of 60 . however.g. surface roughness.. and physical the importance of aerosol IR forcing which should be properties of dust to its life cycle in the air? (5) How included in climate model simulations. 1996.” (2) new global data sets are was envisioned to reduce precipitation. chemical. Charney. which tends to increase surface albedo. This work led prior year’s rainfall in the Soudano-Sahel. and so on (Otterman. Vogelmann et al.” does one model complex multi-layered aerosol Another aspect of the dust-climate connection stratification in the dust-laden atmosphere? (6) How centers on the African Sahel. which and theoretical studies. scenario. weaken the continental 25 Wm-2 (Sokolik et al. “are comparable to or larger than the 1 to 2 attributable to human land-use impacts. resulting in a needed to provide “missing information” on input further reduction in the region’s vegetative cover. and parameters (such as soil type. by favoring the establishment of deep differences in the surface IR flux [of] between 7 and convection over the ocean. highly varied optical to warmer-than-average low-latitude waters around properties that.” (4) how observations.” But “there is Wm-2 change in the globally averaged surface IR little firm evidence to support either of these forcing caused by greenhouse gas increases since preindustrial times. Giannini et al. say that these results “highlight link the ever-evolving optical.” They further concluded that “the secular (e. 1975).” not a direct consequence of regional environmental Vogelmann et al.” and (5) it atmospheric circulation changes triggered by “remains unknown how well these measurements multidecadal variations in sea surface temperature. 2001) despite their change in Sahel rainfall during the past century was potentially large forcing. can cause Africa. noting that: (1) what is studies of the drought attributed it to anthropogenic currently known (or believed to be known) about dust factors such as overgrazing of the region’s fragile emissions “is largely from micro-scale experiments grasses. (2003) presented It is easy to understand why Sokolik says “a evidence based on an ensemble of integrations with a challenge remains in relating dust climatology and the general circulation model of the atmosphere—forced processes controlling the evolution of dust at all only by the observed record of sea surface relevant spatial/temporal scales needed for chemistry temperature—which suggested that the “variability of and climate models. Jacobson.. which. success of this analysis led them to conclude that “the Vogelmann et al.. 1998).” while at the same convergence associated with the monsoon and time acknowledging that “only a few large-scale engender widespread drought from Senegal to climate models currently consider aerosol IR effects Ethiopia.” which values. darkly. represent the light absorption by aerosol particles Building on the insights provided by these latter suspended in the atmosphere. was challenged by Jackson and (3) improvements in methods used to determine some Idso (1975) and Idso (1977) on the basis of empirical of these parameters are also “sorely needed.” The airborne dust on earth’s climate.Climate Change Reconsidered    fact. which has figured does one quantify airborne dust properties from prominently in discussions of climate change ever satellite observations? since it began to experience extended drought In discussing these questions. in their several hundred years and that all variability is words. They say them to conclude that “daytime surface IR forcings the 2001 IPCC report “assumes that natural dust are often a few Wm-2 and can reach almost 10 Wm-2 sources have been effectively constant over the past for large aerosol loadings. 1974.” for until this challenge is met. (2003) reiterate that “mineral recent drying trend in the semi-arid Sahel is attributed aerosols have complex.

J. 1998. 1901-85. Large-scale tropical Atlantic surface circulation patterns associated with sub-Saharan weather anomalies. 2001. Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures. and Minnett. P. Science 302: 1024-1027. M. M. O. and Idso. R. and Chang. Clearly.J. A. Modeling the radiative characteristics of airborne mineral aerosols at infrared wavelengths.. Vogelmann.D. M. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 103: 369-370. much remains to be learned about the climatic impacts of dust before anyone can place any confidence in the climatic projections of the IPCC. J. and Fung. 1978. American Geophysical Union 80: 578. 2003.J. 1975. I..M. (Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1996. Toon. P.1029/2002GL016829. I. K. P. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 101: 193-202. Lamb. D. Maskell.B. P. African droughts and dust transport to the Caribbean: climate change implications. Dynamics of desert and drought in the Sahel. subject/a/aerononbio nat. J. Flatau. Surface albedo and desertification. EOS: Transactions. Palmer. C.N.T. van der Linden. and Bergstrom. J. and Johnson. 1999. A note on some recently proposed mechanisms of genesis of deserts. Global direct radiative forcing due to multicomponent anthropogenic and natural aerosols. S. T.N. A. S. Y.Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing    assumptions.) Idso. Science 186: 531-533. Cambridge. Noguer.B. I. P. Markowicz. 2003. Sokolik. and Lamb.. Nature 380: 419-422. R. 61 . 1986. 1977. Folland.E. P.J. Baring high-albedo soils by overgrazing: a hypothesized desertification mechanism.. Szczodrak.M. Saravanan. Science 302: 1027-1030. 1975. Cambridge University Press. Tegen. and Parker. Giannini. C.J. 2003.. and their findings demonstrate why: The IPCC assumptions are wrong... Jackson. I. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales.). D.php.J.M.. Xiaosu. Griggs.. A. R.A. Lacis. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 1551-1568. Tellus 30: 240-251. D. Sokolik. Otterman.Z. (Eds.G. Nature 320: 602-607. References Charney.J. Prospero.A.B.. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Science 189: 1012-1013... Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 8813-8826. Challenges add up in quantifying radiative impact of mineral dust. Jacobson. Houghton. can be found at http://www. UK..co2science. The influence on climate forcing of mineral aerosols from disturbed soils. 2001.N.W. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.” they say. Additional information on this topic. 1974. Ding.K.

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000 Years 3. Observations: Temperature Records 3.6. Past 1. Marquis. (Eds. volcanic and metamorphic degassing. The IPCC further claims to have evidence of an anthropogenic effect on climate in the earth’s temperature history during the past century (Chapters 3.3. starting with the relationship between CO2 and temperature in ancient climates. in the pattern (or “fingerprint”) of more recent warming (Chapter 9. Fingerprints 3. K. Solomon.7.4. The results of this analysis suggest that over the majority of the half-billion-year record. Section 8). S. D.” A visual examination of Rothman’s plot of CO2 and concomitant major cold and warm periods indicates the three most striking peaks in the air’s CO2 concentration occur either totally or partially within periods of time when earth’s climate was relatively cool.2. and in the temperature records of the Artic region and Antarctica where models predict anthropogenic global warming should be detected first (Chapter 11.1. M. Arctic 3. Z. Miller. the data depict a long-term decline in the air’s CO2 content. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. we critically examine the data used to support each of these claims. M.4).5. the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration was approximately 1400 ppm and the oxygen isotope ratio (a proxy for temperature) was 63 .. UK. Urban Heat Island 3. They found about 43 million years ago. Satellite Data 3. A more detailed look at the most recent 50 million years of earth’s thermal and CO2 history was prepared by Pagani et al.L. (2005). in data from land-based temperature stations and satellites (Chapter 3). Over the last 175 million years. Cambridge. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Chapter 6). along with considerations related to the isotopic content of organic carbon and strontium in marine sedimentary rocks. Paeloclimatic Data Rothman (2002) derived a 500-million-year history of the air’s CO2 content based on considerations related to the chemical weathering of rocks. however.1. earth’s atmospheric CO2 concentration fluctuated between values that were two to four times greater than those of today at a dominant period on the order of 100 million years. In this chapter. 3.B. and the burial of organic carbon. References IPCC. M. 2007-I. Rothman reports that the CO2 history “exhibits no systematic correspondence with the geologic record of climatic variations at tectonic time scales. Chen. Manning. Paeloclimatic Data 3. 9). Tignor and H. Section 9.1.4. Antarctic Introduction The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims to have found evidence in paeloclimatic data that higher levels of atmospheric CO2 can cause or amplify an increase in global temperatures (IPCC. 2007-I. Averyt. Qin.3   Observations: Temperature Records   3.) Cambridge University Press.

(1999) from an ice core extracted from the Russian Vostok drilling station in East Antarctica.1. Petit et al. temperature always dropped well before the decline in the air’s CO2 concentration. temperatures seemed to respond. the oxygen isotope ratio hovered around a value of 2. temperatures of the last decades of the twentieth century were “unprecedented” or “unusual” only because they were cooler than during past interglacial peaks. the oxygen isotope ratio dropped to about 1. 64 Over this period. however. only to rise again by a few hundred ppm. Likewise. “argue for a decoupling between global climate and CO2. over the next ten million years. as the rise in CO2 was followed by the sharpest drop in temperature of the entire record. on the other hand.7 per mil from about 33 to 26 Ma BP. Fischer et al.000 years after the planet began to warm. All of these many observations. They discovered that during all glacial inceptions of the past half million years. exhibiting an uninterrupted slow decline. according to Pagani et al.0 per mil. around 26 Ma BP. Temperature history derived by Petit et al. In fact. the air’s CO2 content did not begin to rise until 400 to 1. studied the beginnings rather than the ends of glacial ages. the air’s CO2 concentration experienced three huge oscillations on the order of 1000 ppm from peak to valley. earth’s air temperature always rose well in advance of the increase in atmospheric CO2. the peak temperatures of the four interglacials that preceded it were. From 24 Ma BP to the end of the record at 5 Ma BP. experienced about a 500 ppm increase around 32 Ma BP. on average. after which it dropped 1.) Figure 3.Climate Change Reconsidered    Figure 3. the current temperature of the globe cannot be taken as evidence of an anthropogenic effect since it was warmer during parts of all preceding interglacials for which we have good proxy temperature data. also found the current interglacial is the coolest of the five most recent such periods. They said their data indicate that “the CO2 decrease lags the temperature decrease by several thousand years. (1999) examined trends of atmospheric CO2 and air temperature derived from Antarctic ice core data that extended back in time a quarter of a million years. Another research team. there were relatively small variations in atmospheric CO2 content but relatively large variations in oxygen isotope values. more than 2°C warmer than that of the one in which we currently live. (2005). whereas the air’s CO2 concentration today stands at nearly 380 ppm.” Moving closer to the modern era. (See Figure 3. First. Then. but in the direction opposite to what the greenhouse theory of global warming predicts. both up and down. In fact.1 tells us three things about the current warm period. and for each of these climatic transitions. Following this large drop in temperature between 34 and 33 million years before present (Ma BP).4 per mil (implying a significant rise in temperature).1. during which time the air’s CO2 content declined. (1999). Second. temperature did not appear to respond at all to the change in CO2. refuting – three times – the CO2-induced global warming hypothesis. Following the third rise in CO2.000 ppm over the next two million years. Next. Mudelsee (2001) determined that . the higher temperatures of the past four interglacials cannot be attributed to higher CO2 concentrations caused by some non-human influence because atmospheric CO2 concentrations during all four prior interglacials never rose above approximately 290 ppm. In the first two oscillations. about 1.” Petit et al. the three most dramatic warming events experienced on earth were the terminations of the last three ice ages. And third. indicating little change in temperature over that period. The corresponding CO2 concentration.

yields a lag of CO2 to deuterium of 800. 1987.. 2003. they note that “this value is consistent with estimates based on data from the past four glacial cycles. Caillon et al. which they argue “can be taken as a climate proxy. 1600. rather than vice versa. On the other hand. Results of their analysis revealed a coupling of Antarctic temperature and CO2 in which they obtained the best correlation between CO2 and temperature “for a lag of CO2 of 1900 years. they indicate that “the highest correlation of CO2 and deuterium. 1999.Y..000 years ago.” Indermuhle et al. on the importance of CO2 as a key amplification factor of the large observed temperature variations of glacial cycles. Science 299: 1728-1731.200 and 1. (1999) determined that after the termination of the last great ice age.000 years over the past 420. 1998. 65 . also avoid the seemingly clear implication of their own findings.. (2003) measured the isotopic composition of argon – specifically. “confirms that CO2 is not the forcing that initially drives the climatic system during a deglaciation. J. considered the CO2 perturbations to have been caused by the changes in climate. Fischer et al.. Cheddadi et al. (2005).. where temperature is the independent variable that appears to induce changes in CO2.. During certain climatic transitions characterized by rapid warmings of several degrees Centigrade.Observations: Temperature Records  variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lagged behind variations in air temperature by 1.” In addition..-M. while a second statistical test yielded a mean CO2 lag time of 1. Raymo et al. 2003). V. Indermuhle et al. There is no way these real-world observations can be construed to suggest that a significant increase in atmospheric CO2 would necessarily lead to any global warming. Jouzel.300 to 5. Steig (1999) noted cases between 7. respectively. Petit et al. The results of their tedious but meticulous analysis led them to conclude that “the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 ± 200 years. Caillon et al. when working with a high-resolution temperature and atmospheric CO2 record spanning the period 60 to 20 thousand years ago. over the course of glacial terminations V to VII. (2000) discovered four distinct periods when temperatures rose by approximately 2°C and CO2 rose by about 20 ppm. N. 2001. Nevertheless. Staufer et al. the CO2 content of the air gradually rose by approximately 25 ppm in almost linear fashion between 8. Other studies have also demonstrated this reverse coupling of atmospheric CO2 and temperature (e. thus providing constraints about the timing of CO2 and climate change” – in air bubbles in the Vostok ice core over the period that comprises what is called Glacial Termination III.000 years ago when atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by just over 10 ppm at a time when temperatures in both hemispheres cooled. They. much less the catastrophic type that is predicted by the IPCC. Indermuhle et al.. that CO2 doesn’t cause global warming. However.200 years ago.P.g. Severinghaus. Barnola. References Caillon. (2003). When temperature is found to lead CO2 by thousands of years. These observations seem to undermine the IPCC’s claims that the CO2 produced by the burning of fossil fuels will lead to catastrophic global warming. 1998. 2000. 1999. over a period of time that saw a slow but steady decline in global air temperature. and 2800 years..000 years. J. and Lipenkov. Monnin et al.. there is currently 90 ppm more CO2 in the air and yet it is currently more than 2°C colder than it was then. Gagan et al. δ40Ar. Kang... one of the statistical tests they performed on the data suggested that the shifts in the air’s CO2 content during these intervals followed the shifts in air temperature by approximately 900 years.200 years.. which occurred about 240. (1998) observed the atmospheric CO2 concentration derived from ice core records typically varied by less than 10 ppm. Monnin et al.” This finding. 2001. too. Timing of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature changes across Termination III..” Specifically.. the ratio of deuterium to hydrogen) data derived from an ice core in Antarctica. (1999). which were followed by slower coolings that returned the climate to essentially full glacial conditions. (2001) and Caillon et al. Another pertinent study is that of Siegenthaler et   al. J. stubbornly state that the new findings “do not cast doubt . 1998).” citing in this regard the work of Fischer et al.” The previously cited Caillon et al. in their words. Siegenthaler et al.000 and 5. it is extremely likely that CO2 plays only a minor role in enhancing temperature changes that are induced by something else. We find such disclaimers disingenuous. J. with use of a 20-ky window for each termination. Mudelsee. during both glacial terminations and inceptions (Genthon et al.. Compared with the mean conditions of the preceding four interglacials. who analyzed CO2 and proxy temperature (δD.

Lamb... B. Raynaud. Marked decline in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations during the Paleogene. G. Monnin.. and van der Kaars. Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 60 to 20 kyr BP from the Taylor Dome ice core. 2005. Blunier. J. Science 310: 1313-1317. Schwander. Nature 398: 121-126. Millennial-scale climate instability during the early Pleistocene epoch. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels for the last 500 million years. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420.. J.H. B....N. M..M. Mastroianni. Pagani. and Stauffer. Mid-Holocene climate change..K. Science 286: 1485-1487.-M. H. Science 309: 600-603. Wahllen. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last glacial termination.. 2007-I. D.. 1999. D.. M. Smith.M.. Antarctica. C. D. J.300 years [italics in the original]” (IPCC. 1987. Oppo.. M.F. Raymo...L. J. M..A.B. P. J.J. Royer.. M.N.. L. Climate Dynamics 14: 883-890.. J.. and Bohaty. and Jouzel. Stocker. B. H... A. B. D.A. Stauffer.E. J. Middle Eocene seawater pH and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. J. Nature 399: 429-436.W. Nature 329: 414-418. C. 466) and “it is likely that the 20th century was the warmest in at least the past 1. T.. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 99: 4167-4171. Tipple. Bender.I. Pepin.. Barnola. temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka... Monnin.J. D. Zachos. Y.F. and Berner... S. Indermuhle... N.J. Later in that report.. Pearson. J. 2001. Delmotte. D. and Clausen. and McManus. Antarctica. Delaygue.. A.R. Genthon. Smith..H. Stocker. P. Stauffer. 1999. Tschumi. Science 279: 1014-1017. Ganley. Wing. Legrand. Hammer. Deck. D. J.L.C. Barnola. M.. 1998. Nature 392: 59-62.. D. and Kotlyakov.E. M. Carter. N. H. Lorius. 474)... Raynaud. Jouzel. Nature 291: 112-114. Dallenbach. Raynaud. R. Atmospheric CO2 concentration and millennial-scale climate change during the last glacial period.3 kyr. it is very likely that average NH [Northern Hemisphere] temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were higher than for any other 50-year period in the last 500 years” (p. D..J. K.. V.F. Flückiger. Steig. C.M. E.-M. 2000. Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations. P.. Paleobotanical evidence for near present-day levels of atmospheric CO2 during part of the Tertiary. J. Holocene climatic change in Morocco: a quantitative reconstruction from pollen data... Barkov. Chappellaz.R. J. 1999. Science 283: 1712-1714. The phase relations among atmospheric CO2 content. Considering the recent instrumental and longer proxy evidence together. Lorius. Nature 392: 699-702. and Barnola. Science 292: 2310-2313. and Stocker.. Barnola. C. Science 284: 1824-1826. Korotkevich. Kotlyakov.. C. U. 9).. Past 1. Jolley... S. T.R. 1998. G. J. J. Pagani. Raynaud. E. and Freeman. Temperature and surface-ocean water balance of the mid-Holocene tropical western Pacific. Staufer..F. A. J. M. H.Climate Change Reconsidered    Cheddadi. S.W.. Stocker.. Ayliffe. M. Freeman.... 1999. Cali. 1999..000 Years The IPCC claims “average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the past 500 years and likely the highest in at least the past 1. Lipenkov. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years. 2000. V. J... H. Chappellaz... Miocene evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide. M. 2001. Indermuhle. L. the IPCC says “the warming observed after 1980 is unprecedented compared to the levels measured in the previous 280 years” (p. 1998. M. Davis. Authur.. 3. K. Stable carbon cycle-climate relationship during the late Pleistocene.-M. L. Paleoceanography 14: 273-292. V. 1998. D. Siegenthaler. B. D. Raynaud.2..U. and Palmer.. Schwander. E. Blunier. 1999. Ritz. Basile. Antarctica. and Stievenard. Quaternary Science Reviews 20: 583-589. Nature 406: 695-699.I. B. R. and Deck. 2001.. T. Dällenbach. Mudelsee. D. A.F. E.000 years from the Vostok ice core. Indermuhle. T.. R. Joos.. Beerling. J. T. Hickey.T. Guiot. K. Fischer. V. J.A. J. Luthi. p. Pearson. M. Rothman. Vostok ice core: Climatic response to CO2 and orbital forcing changes over the last climatic cycle. Petit.. J. B. Barkov.. H. Gagan. M.. Mortimer. M. E.K. Mastroianni..L. I... and Head.. D.S. Tschumi. Fischer. J. Stauffer. Koch. M.. 2002. T.. S. M.. Masson-Delmotte..H.. T.Y. 2005. and Palmer. Wahlen.J. A... Fischer. Monnin. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 735-738. M. Holocene carbon-cycle dynamics based on CO2 trapped in ice at Taylor Dome. A. Saltzman. B... F. 66 . D. Hopley. Meyer. Stocker. Chappell. McCulloch. Jouzel. Indermühle.

The Clinton administration featured it as the first visual in the U. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Z.1. K. 2001)..2. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.. Miller. Mann gave us nine hundred years of stable global temperatures—until about 1910.. M. 67 . 1998. Corrigendum: Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. 466-471). 1999. 1998). Mann was named an IPCC lead author and his graph was prominently displayed in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR. S. Mann. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. a major professional journal. North America. quite simply.. They then grafted the surface temperature record of the twentieth century onto the pre-1980 proxy record. a young Ph.K. We then present a thorough examination of temperature records around the world to test the IPCC’s claim that there was no Medieval Warm Period during which temperatures exceeded those of the twentieth century. D. Averyt. We return to Antarctica and the Arctic at the end of this chapter to discuss more recent temperature trends. Mann and his colleagues used several temperature proxies (but primarily tree rings) as a basis for assessing past temperature changes from 1000 to 1980.. (See Figure 3. Tignor and H. and Jones. Qin.) Gone were the difficult-to-explain Medieval Warming and the awkward Little Ice Age. 1999. We start here with an examination of the work of Mann et al. Then the twentieth century’s temperatures seem to rocket upward out of control. 2001)). (1998. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. M.E. 2003). 2007-I. M. Chen. The Mann study gave the Clinton administration the quick answer it wanted to the argument that natural climate variations exceed whatever effect human activity might have had in the twentieth century by claiming.) Cambridge University Press. and since the IPCC continues to rely upon and defend it in its latest report (see IPCC. 1998.. and Hughes. Manning. Europe. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences. 2007-I.S. from the University of Massachusetts (Mann et al. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. M. Mann et al. Bradley. starting with data from Africa and then from Antarctica.1029/2003GL017814.S. References IPCC.L.2. Mann.E. The effect was visually dramatic. 1999.Observations: Temperature Records    The notions that the warming of the second half of the twentieth century was “unprecedented” and that temperatures during the twentieth century were “the warmest in at least the past 1.D. M.1. uncertainties. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. and Hughes. pp.” Mann was named an editor of The Journal of Climate. (Eds. Marquis. “An Inconvenient Truth. 2004) and Mann and Jones (2003). Asia. and limitations. and finally South America. Mann. The Hockey Stick One of the most famous pieces of “evidence” for anthropogenic global warming (AGW) brought forth in recent years was the “hockey stick” diagram of Michael Mann and colleagues (Mann et al. Nature 430: 105. Cambridge. Nature 392: 779-787.B. and it subsequently appeared in Al Gore’s movie. Bradley.) Because the graph played such a big role in mobilizing concern over global warming in the years since it was first released.1. we devote some space here to explaining its unusual origins and subsequent rejection by much of the scientific community. M. signaling the new order of things to the rest of his profession. R. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (later published as Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (National Assessment Synthesis Team. the Arctic. Mann and Jones. R. which captured the attention of the world in the early years of the twenty-first century and upon which the IPCC still relies heavily for its conclusions.D. Mann et al. 3. 2004.E.3 kyr” will be questioned and tested again and again in the present report.S. that even the very biggest past historic changes in temperatures simply never happened.2. P. UK. 2003. M. Solomon. (See Figure 3. M. The hockey stick graph first appeared in a 1998 study led by Michael Mann.K.

This was published in Energy & Environment. Using corrected and updated source data. McIntyre and McKitrick learned that the Mann studies give by far the heaviest weight to tree-ring data from 14 sites in California’s Sierra Nevada Mountains. p. Significantly. high-elevation bristlecone pine trees (which can live 5.2.1. The “hockey stick” graph was severely critiqued by two Canadian nonscientists who were well trained in statistics—metals expert Stephen McIntyre of Toronto and economist Ross McKitrick from Canada’s University of Guelph (McIntyre and McKitrick. McIntyre and McKitrick requested the original study data from Mann. At those sites. 2005). 2003.” Mann and his coauthors could hardly have escaped knowing the CO2 reality. McIntyre and McKitrick recalculated the Northern Hemisphere temperature index for the period 1400–1980 using Mann’s own methodology. Trees like the high-altitude bristlecone pines. on the margins of both moisture and fertility. are likely to exhibit very strong responses to CO2 enrichment—which was the point of the Graybill and Idso study. that paper was titled “Detecting the Aerial 68 Fertilization Effect of Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment in Tree Ring Chronologies” (Graybill and Idso.” In their exchanges with the Mann research team.000 years) showed a strong twentieth century growth spurt. They found the data did not produce the claimed results “due to collation errors. ancient. obsolete data. All trees with more CO2 in their atmosphere are very likely to grow more rapidly. incorrect calculation of principal components and other quality control defects. The ‘hockey stick’ temperature graph was used by the IPCC to argue that the twentieth century was unusually warm (IPCC-TAR 2001. The growth ring data from those trees were collected and presented in a 1993 paper by Donald Graybill and Sherwood Idso. unjustifiable truncation or extrapolation of source data. It was provided—haltingly and incompletely—indicating that no one else had previously requested the data for a peer review in connection with the original publication in Nature. McIntyre and McKitrick demonstrated that removing the bristlecone pine tree data eliminates the distinctive rise at the end of the “hockey stick. But CO2 acts like fertilizer for trees and plants and also increases their water-use efficiency. geographical location errors.Climate Change Reconsidered    Figure 3. Graybill and Idso specifically pointed out in their study that neither local nor regional temperature changes could account for the twentieth century growth spurt in those already-mature trees. slow-growing. with the data refereed by the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology (McIntyre and . since it was clearly presented in the title of the study from which they derived their most heavily weighted data sites. 1993). 3).

This real-world fact conclusively demonstrates there is nothing unnatural about the planet’s current temperature. and by a National Academy of Sciences report (NAS. was contradicted by later work by McIntyre and McKitrick (2005). But that it occurred and was a global phenomenon is certain. The third category includes studies that are based on data related to parameters other than temperature. 2004). evidence of the MWP has been uncovered at locations throughout the world. with temperatures at their lowest. 2003).05ºC)” (IPCC. Where does the IPCC stand today regarding the “hockey stick”? Surprisingly. the Mann study was fundamentally wrong. Figure 3. hence. there are literally hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific articles that bear witness to this truth. In the glossary (Annex I).1ºC and 0. but the data did not provide a means by which the warmth of the MWP could be compared with that of the CWP.. The Medieval Warm Period appears only in quotes in the index and body of the IPCC 2007-I report. 469). it is defined as “an interval between AD 1000 and 1300 in which some Northern Hemisphere regions were warmer than during the Little Ice Age that followed” (p. and that whatever warming occurred during the twentieth century was likely caused by the recurrence of whatever cyclical phenomena created the equal or even greater warmth of the MWP. 2007I. The Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change has analyzed more than 200 peerreviewed research papers produced by more than 660 individual scientists working in 385 separate institutions from 40 different countries that comment on the MWP. The degree of warming and climatic influence during the MWP varied from region to region and. In other words. A second question often posed with respect to the MWP is: When did it occur? A histogram of the timeframe (start year to end year) associated with the MWP of the studies plotted in Figure 3. Squares denote studies where the scientists who conducted the work provided quantitative data that enable one to determine the degree by which the peak temperature of the MWP differed from the peak temperature of the Current Warm Period (CWP).3. p. revealing the truly global nature of this phenomenon.. by statistics expert Edward Wegman (Wegman et al. too.2.2ºC below the 1961 to 1990 mean and significantly below the level shown by instrumental data after 1980” (p. It was the claim that temperatures in the second half of the twentieth century were the highest in the last millennium that properly generated the most attention. such as precipitation.Observations: Temperature Records    McKitrick. the first because “their qualitative approach precluded any quantitative summary of the evidence at precise times. within a more generalized 800 to 1300 AD warm era. Circles denote studies where the scientists who conducted the work provided qualitative data that enable one to determine which of the two periods was warmer. but temperatures were probably between 0. One can disprove the IPCC’s claim by demonstrating that about 1.’” In a boxed discussion of “Hemispheric Temperatures in the ‘Medieval Warm Period. but they still claimed that “none of these errors affect our previously published results” (Mann et al. That claim.” report McIntyre and McKitrick.2.” and the latter by citing a defense of Mann by Wahl and Ammann (2006) “who show the impact on the amplitude of the final reconstruction is very small (~0. Triangles denote studies where the MWP was evident in the study’s data. but not by how much.2. despite there being approximately 25 percent less CO2 in the atmosphere than there is today. 2006). 949).000 years ago. The NAS skipped lightly over the errors of the hockey-stick analysis and concluded it showed only that the twentieth century was the warmest in 400 years. but this conclusion is hardly surprising. Critiques by Soon and Baliunas (2003) and McIntyre and McKitrick are reported briefly but both are dismissed. 2006). it still defends and relies on it. As can be seen from the figure.2 illustrates the spatial distribution of these studies.’” it says “medieval warmth was heterogeneous in terms of its precise timing and regional expression” and “the warmest period prior to the 20th century very likely occurred between 950 and 1100. In the text it is referred to as “the so-called ‘Medieval Warm Period. It appears in a series of graphs on page 467. Mann and his team were forced to publish a correction in Science admitting to errors in their published proxy data. there was a world-wide Medieval Warm Period (MWP) when global temperatures were equally as high as or higher than they were over the latter part of the twentieth century.2 is shown in Figure 3. 466). 69 . its consequences were manifested in several ways. “The major finding is that the [warming] in the early 15th century exceed[s] any [warming] in the 20th century. since the Little Ice Age was near its nadir 400 years ago. The peak timeframe of all studies occurs around 1050 AD.

It is often claimed that temperatures over the latter part of the twentieth century were higher than those experienced at any other time over the past one to two millennia.01°C.75 2. 7 6 5 4 3 2 With respect to how warm it was during this period. Here we have plotted the number of studies in Figure 3. of studies that allow one to identify the degree by which peak Medieval Warm Period temperatures either exceeded or fell short of peak Current Warm Period temperatures.2 in which the MWP was warmer than.25 0. Histogram showing the timeframe associated with all MWP studies plotted in Figure Plot of the locations of proxy climate studies for which (a) quantitative determinations of the temperature difference between the MWP and CWP can be made (squares). indicating the MWP was warmer than the CWP.Climate Change Reconsidered    Figure 3.2. and (c) neither quantitative nor qualitative determinations can be made.2. We can further generalize the superior warmth of the MWP by analyzing the qualitative studies in Figure 3.5°C increments.2.75 Temperature Difference: MWP-CWP (°C) Figure 3.4.75 1.2. that claim is seen to be false. in 0.90°C.3. 70 . Based upon the synthesis of realworld data presented here (and hereafter). however. while the median is 0.5.25 -1.75 3. we have plotted the frequency distribution of all MWP-CWP temperature differentials from all quantitative studies (squares) shown in Figure 3. The distribution. which we have done in Figure 3. but the vast majority of the temperature differentials are positive. The average of all such differentials is 1.2.2. Quantitative MWP .CWP Temperature Differences 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 Figure 3. presented by the authors of the original works.2. with the studies simply indicating that the Medieval Warm Period did indeed occur in the studied region (triangles).2 to create Figure 3.25 -3. the CWP. based upon data 1 0 -4. This figure reveals there are a few studies in which the MWP was determined to have been cooler than the CWP. or about the same as. (b) qualitative determinations of the temperature difference between the MWP and CWP can be made (circles).25 -2.4. cooler than.2.2. The vast majority of studies indicates the MWP was warmer than the CWP.25 -0.

Wegman.E. In the course of completing this project. D. R. C. S.A. Washington. Cambridge University Press. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.E. D.. McIntyre. In the rest of this section. and Jones. (1998) proxy data base and northern hemisphere average temperature series. Energy & Environment 14: 751-777. Huffman (1996) constructed a climate history of the region based on archaeological evidence acquired from various Iron Age settlements. Solomon. Additional information on this topic. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. Cambridge UK. (Eds.S. R. 2007-I. Hockey sticks. M.L. M. 2001. Washington. Global Change Research Program.. 1993. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Scott. we highlight the results of studies from regions across the globe that show the existence of a Medieval Warm Period. 2006.R. and McKitrick. E. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 7:81–95.5. Bradley. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. 3. R. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.2. Nature 392: 779-787. and Baliunas. Marquis. M. Detecting the aerial fertilization effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment in tree ring chronologies. McIntyre. can be found at http://www.CWP Temperature Differences 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 MWP < CWP MWP ≈ CWP MWP > CWP Mann.K. DC. Climate Research 23 (2): 89-110. Chen. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. and Idso. Manning. Mann. Africa Based on the temperature and water needs of the crops that were cultivated by the first agropastoralists of southern Africa. IPCC-TAR 2001. Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change.W. Wegman Report.M.E.D.B. Corrigendum: Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. M. and McKitrick. Averyt. Hughes reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures: Examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate evidence. 2004. Available at http://energycommerce. Climate Change 85: 33-69.000 Years. and Said.   Figure 3. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2003. M. W. References Graybill. Nature 430: 105. and Hughes. P. Miller. Soon. E.S. The distribution of studies that allow one to determine whether peak Medieval Warm Period temperatures were warmer than. Y. uncertainties.1029/2003GL017814. Bradley. 1998. S. dated relic evidence of the presence of cultivated sorghum and millets was considered by Huffman to be so strong as to essentially prove that the climate of the subcontinent-wide region must have been warmer and 71 . Z. UK. 2003. Ad Hoc Committee Report to Chairman of the House Committee on Energy & Commerce and to the Chairman of the House sub-committee on Oversight & Investigations on the Hockey-stick Global Climate Reconstructions. and limitations. Wahl. NAS 2006. Cambridge.Observations: Temperature Records    Qualitative MWP . K. M. Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2. S. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.) Cambridge University Press..B. or cooler than peak Current Warm Period temperatures. IPCC.K. and Hughes. M. DC.2. S.php under the heading Medieval Warm Period. 1999. M. and Ammann.pdf.S.2. including reviews on the Medieval Warm Period not discussed here. Tignor and H. Cambridge University Press. Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years. Geophysical Research Letters 32 L03710. Mann et al. principal components and spurious significance. Corrections to Mann et equivalent to. 2005. D. 2003. S. Robustness of the Mann. Qin. Bradley. US House of Representatives. National Assessment Synthesis Team. Mann. National Academy Press. 2007..co2science. Report for the U. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: subject_m.

64. network over the period 1981-1995. including the the hydrologic fingerprint of the Medieval Warm documentation of fairly abrupt shifts in river flow at Period in Central Kenya in a study of pollen data the beginning and end of the Medieval Warm Period.Climate Change Reconsidered    long interval of coolness that preceded the Roman wetter than it is today from approximately AD 900Warm Period]. (<40 years) paleoenvironmental reconstructions for Of particular interest in this regard is the strong the past 1. followed by warming between 1. Tyson et al. 4.” Thereafter. notably between 500 and 300 words of the nine researchers (together with our cal yr BP. in the lake-level low stands. for these crops cannot be grown in this part of 2.” This new temperature record from far below from color variations in banded growth-layer the equator (24°S) reveals the existence of all of the laminations of the stalagmite that were derived from a major millennial-scale oscillations of climate that are relationship calibrated against actual air temperatures evident in data collected from regions surrounding the obtained from a surrounding 49-station climatological North Atlantic Ocean.000-year temperature record for South Africa that Southern Oscillation variations. (2000).500 years based on pollen and carbon similarity between their results and those of isotope data obtained from sediment cores retrieved Verschuren et al.78 that was significant at the 99 advanced spectral methods to fill data gaps and locate percent confidence level.5°C higher than that prevailing at the scale resolution of their results provides a “sharper time of their analysis of the data.5 ka [the Roman Warm Period] and briefly at ~AD southern Africa under current climatic conditions. that “cooling is evident from ~6 of the TRFO [Tropical Rainforest] biome.” They also note that “the Little Ice record of oxygen and carbon-stable isotope data from Age covered the four centuries between AD 1500 and a well-dated stalagmite of Cold Air Cave in the 1800 and at its maximum at AD 1700 represents the Makapansgat Valley (30 km southwest of Pietersburg.2 years. With respect to the causes the present. which had a Two years later. (2003) developed a 25. They also note that the annuallevel that was 2. which they augmented with five-yearresolution temperature data that they reconstructed record. which followed the which are much too cool and dry. (2003) provided strong evidence for transitions” in tropical east Africa. (2007) derived high-resolution Island Crater. most pronounced negative δ18O deviation in the entire South Africa). when temperatures reached a astronomical forcings. This work revealed.2-year oscillations are likely due to El Niñoa 3. 12. Kondrashov et al. lower A/H pollen ratios “characterized the interval from ~500 to 300 cal yr and δ13C measurements dated by 14C and highBP. and more reliable determination of climatic-regime Lamb et al.000-year 870 cal yr BP. several statistically significant “maximum warming at Makapansgat at around 1250 periodicities were noted. about AD 1300. 7.and high-water levels on the period that began prior to AD 1000 and lasted to Nile River over the 1. which is a sub-basin of Lake Naivasha.5ka [thousand years before present. indicating lower water levels during the ‘Little precision thermal ionization mass spectrometry using 230 234 Ice Age’. during the 72 . (2001) derived and 2. 1200 [the Medieval Warm Period. (2000). report that the In doing so. Dark Ages Cold Period]. are associated with decreases in the score interspersed notes). when lake-level was at an 1.” to 2.” In addition. The most striking of these from Lakes Kamalete and Nguene in the lowland correspondences occurred over the period AD 980 to rainforest of Gabon. they report that “all inferred the Th/ U method. (2005) applied correlation of +0.2 and 2. suggesting decadal-scale fluctuations temperature history from a stalagmite retrieved from in the water balance during the ‘Medieval Warm Makapansgat Valley’s Cold Air Cave based on δ18O Period’. produced conditions up to 3-4°C hotter than those of 19.100-year low and after a sharp rise at ~1200 cal yr BP. Holmgren et al. that the 7-year cycle revealed several multi-century warm and cold may be related to North Atlantic influences.2In a similar study.” of these cycles. This record revealed the interannual and interdecadal periodicities in historical existence of a significantly warmer-than-present records of annual low. “A/H woody taxa were significantly underrepresented in the [aquatic/hygrophytic] pollen ratios showed pollen assemblage. and that periods. They found a dramatic warming at the longer-period oscillations could be due to approximately AD 900.300-year period AD 622-1922. intermediate values and varied strongly from 1150 to Holmgren et al. obtained from a sediment core taken from Crescent Ngomanda et al.” after which “maximum Other evidence for this conclusion comes from Holocene cooling occurred at AD 1700 [the depth of Tyson et al. including cycles at 256. The nine researchers state that 1200. who obtained a quasi-decadal the Little Ice Age].5 and 1300. the three researchers say that the 4.

and (2) the Medieval Warm Period was probably more extreme in Africa than has been the Current Warm Period to this point in time. J. and Brenac... (Eds. U. D. cold in the Little Ice Age. additionally note that “rainforest environments during the late Holocene in western equatorial Africa are characterized by successive millennial-scale changes according to pollen (Elenga et al. can be found at http://www..” They report “the long-term PDSI reconstruction indicates generally drier conditions before ~1350. J. C. J.. H. Elenga.Observations: Temperature Records    In discussing their findings. Recent origin of large part of the forest cover in the Gabon coastal area based on stable carbon isotope data.M. Pollen evidence of Late Quaternary vegetation and inferred climate changes in Congo. M. Wirrmann. H. 1994. Elenga. 2007. if the coherency is strictly interpreted. and Servant.. D.” which latter coherency would tend to suggest that the peak warmth of the Medieval Warm Period was at least as great as that of the last two decades of the twentieth century throughout the entire Northern Hemisphere. Maley. F. Palaeogeography. 1999.” In addition. Compte-Rendu de l’Academie des Sciences.9). Springer.. Schwartz. and. and generally wetter conditions until the 1970s.. Palaeoclimatology. Reynaud-Farrera et al.. Paris..H.. Verstege. 2006. L. Vincens et al. and Schweingruber.co2science. and low evergreen rainforest presence. Esper. Additional information on this topic. it appears that (1) the Medieval Warm Period did occur over wide reaches of Africa. Lowfrequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability.. I. Palaeoenvironments. the Little Ice Age was a time of low precipitation. Nievergelt. and Farrera.. Fuhr.. Gasse.” after which there were “dry conditions since the 1980s. Northwest Africa. Cook.. A.. when fluctuating wet-dry conditions led to fluctuating lake levels and a greater evergreen rainforest presence.. D. J.R.. 2002. pp. 2004). D. 1998. 1996. (2007) used Cedrus atlantica ringwidth data “to reconstruct long-term changes in the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over the past 953 years in Morocco. P. state that “the positive co-variation between lake level and rainforest cover changes may indicate a direct vegetational response to regional precipitation variability. Maley and subject/a/africamwp. and Esper. D. diatom (Nguetsop et al.W. Summer temperature variations in the European Alps. 2001). geochemical (Delegue et al. 2002) indicate that Moroccan drought changes are broadly coherent with well-documented temperature fluctuations including warmth during medieval times.C. In light of these research findings.. Late Quaternary palaeoenvironments in Lake Barombi Mbo (West 73 . palaeoclimates and landscape development in Central Equatorial Africa: A review of major terrestrial key sites covering the last 25 kyrs.” noting that “evergreen rainforest expansion occurs during wet intervals. Science 295: 2250-2253. Giresse et al. Schwartz. Frank.. de Namur. H.. 1998). low lake levels. Vincens. while much the opposite was the case during the Medieval Warm Period. a transition period until ~1450. including reviews of newer publications as they become available..php. Journal of Climate 19: 5606-5623.. 1996. Maley.2). Giresse. Elenga. A. Elenga et al. and Xoplaki. 2001. J. Diagramme pollinique holocene du Lac Kitina (Congo): mise en evidence de changements paleobotaniques et paleoclimatiques dans le massif forestier du Mayombe. A. Delegue. 1994). Esper. Vincens. it suggests that the warmth of the MWP was likely even greater than that of the late twentieth century. serie 2a: 345-356. C. 2006) and the Northern Hemisphere (Esper et al.. and Vincens.. Buntgen. 755-2004. 1996..” It appears that in this part of Western Equatorial Africa. Frank. U.. Palaeoecology 109: 345-356. In: Battarbee.) Past Climate Variability through Europe and Africa. A. and recent anthropogenic warming. 1994. 2001. Martin.1029/2007GL030844.. M. Luterbacher. E.. and sedimentological data (Giresse et al. Geophysical Research Letters 34: 10.” and that “these changes were essentially driven by natural climatic variability (Vincens et al. and Nasi. the six researchers note that “millennium-long temperature reconstructions from Europe (Buntgen et al. D. Bertraux. D.. Mariotti. 2004).. Ngomanda et al. E. Oecologia 129: 106-113. they determined that “the driest 20-year period reconstructed is 1237-1256 (PDSI = -4. P. R. R.E.. Wirrmann et al. 181-196. 1994. References Buntgen. Schwartz. 2004. Long-term drought severity variations in Morocco.” Also of significance. 2005.” adding that “1981-2000 conditions are in line with this historical extreme (-3. A. J...D.” Esper et al. Ngomanda et al. A. F. Placing these findings within a broader temporal context. A. and Stickley. J. with contraction during periods of drought.

M. D.A. Quaternary Research 67: 411425. Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1. Quaternary Research 50: 34-45. M. 2003. J. D. East Antarctica. 1996.S. Archaeological evidence for climatic change during the last 2000 years in southern Africa.. T. P. and radiocarbon (14C) age. Sedimentary environmental changes and millennial climatic variability in a tropical shallow lake (Lake Ossa. Oslisly. Wirrmann. and Heiss. Holmgren.. Compte-Rendu de l’Academie des Sciences. T. Oscillatory modes of extended Nile River records (A. South African Journal of Science 96: 121-126.1029/2004 GL022156. Holmgren.. Palaeoecology 107: 65-78. 2004. Palaeoclimatology. Vincens... F. Nguetsop. Makaya. Bertaux. Forest response to climate changes in Atlantic Equatorial Africa during the last 4000 years BP and inheritance on the modern landscapes... Elenga. A. the presence of the “Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm period.. P. N. 2000. K. H. P. and Kossoni.” Hall and Denton (2002) mapped the distribution and elevation of surficial deposits along the southern Scott Coast of Antarctica in the vicinity of the Wilson Piedmont Glacier. Palaeogeography. Elenga. and Verschuren. (2002) likewise analyzed a sediment core removed from the eastern Bransfield Basin just off the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. and Kossoni.F. S. A. 2000. I. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 99: 157-187.. “are associated with increased proximity to an area of primary production. Bertauz. and the abundance of Fragilariopsis curta in particular—which parameters.. L. Maley. D. Schwartz.000 years in Southern Africa. and Rabenkogo. Fontugne.. The Holocene 13: 285-292.. In analyzing the core’s characteristics over the past 5. Alexandre. D.R.. Servant. H.100 years. and Wirrmann. Cooper. V. Lundblad. Chepstow-Lusty. Huffman.. and de Namur. Martin. D. M.. 2005.. 2001. Sithaldeen. M.700 14C years.J. which puts the time of maximum Ice Shelf retreat in close proximity to the historical time frame of the Medieval Warm Period. D.-D. Khim et al. J. Late Holocene climatic changes in west Africa. J. Lamb. M.A. Palaeogeography. Partridge.2. D. A. Vegetation dynamics. and Svanered.. C. Moberg. Western Equatorial Africa. L. 2001. Journal of Biogeography 26: 879-885.. Palaeoecology 218: 257-285. Bentaleb.. Nature 403: 410-414. A. Servant-Vildary. Kondrashov. K. Quaternary International 33: 55-60. Late Holocene paleoclimatic changes in Western Central Africa inferred from mineral abundance in dated sediments from Lake Ossa (Southwest Cameroon). Cameroon) during the Holocene. Schwartz. A. W.D. Reynaud-Farrera..Climate Change Reconsidered    Cameroon) deduced from pollen and carbon isotopes of organic matter. K. magnetic susceptibility. Quaternary Science Reviews 22: 2311-2326. J. South African Journal of Science 97: 49-51. and Cumming. Antarctica Hemer and Harris (2003) extracted a sediment core from beneath the Amery Ice Shelf. Quaternary Research 56: 275-287. Karlén. G. J. Tyson. Giresse. Tyson.. Palaeoclimatology. and Wirrmann. in their words.C. Mariotti. R. Maley. all of which data clearly depicted.. S.P. paleoenvironments and climatic changes in the forests of western Cameroon during the last 28. together with preceding climatic events of similar intensity and duration. Lee-Thorp. D. Servant-Vildary. I..P. Lowland rainforest response to hydrological changes during the last 1500 years in Gabon. A preliminary 3000-year regional temperature reconstruction for South Africa... H. Vegetation et climat dans les forets du Sud-Ouest Cameroun depuis 4770 ans B. Paris.R. 2003. A. 1999. G. J. 210Pb geochronology. Southern Congo. and Brenac. Talma. A.. J. P.N.. Reynaud-Farrera. a high resolution diatom record from equatorial Cameroon. Scott. Meunier. 1998. Laird..000 years B. Ngomanda.. J. and Tyson. I. biogenic silica content.. and Servant.... at a point that is currently about 80 km landward of the location of its present edge. Quaternary Science Reviews 23: 591-609. and Ghil. serie 2a 322: 749-755. Jolly.. Feliks. A. R. B. 74 Verschuren. Maley. 3. Persistent millennial-scale climatic variability over the past 25... 2007. K. total organic carbon content. Vegetation response to rainfall variation and human impact in central Kenya during the past 1100 years. D. the two scientists observed a peak in absolute diatom abundance in general.D. 1998. Holmgren. J. Geophysical Research Letters 32: doi:10.F. A. Y.D.: analyse pollinique des sediments du Lac Ossa. in their words.. The Little Ice Age and medieval warming in South Africa. P. such as the sea-ice zone”—at about 750 14C yr B. O. Late Holocene climatic changes in Western Equatorial Africa inferred from pollen from Lake Sinnda. Bertaux. I. Darbyshire. A. which runs parallel to the coast of the western Ross Sea from McMurdo Sound north to . K.D. including grain size.P. 2005... Maley. 1996..3. 622-1922). Nguetsop. Vincens.

Finally. (2003) used oxygen isotopes preserved in authigenic carbonate retrieved from freshwater sediments of Sombre Lake on Signy Island (60°43’S. This work revealed that most volcanic events in the early last millennium (AD 1000-1500) exhibited greater among-site variability in normalized sulphate deposition than was observed thereafter.” They additionally cite Goosse et al. after which they compared their results for the past millennium with similar results obtained from eight other Antarctic ice cores. Castellano et al. (2001) on the basis of a high-resolution speleothem δ18O record from southwest Ireland. Noon et al. “the Wilson Piedmont Glacier was still less extensive than it is now. (2005) derived a detailed history of Holocene volcanism from the sulfate record of the first 360 meters of the Dome Concordia ice core that covered the period 0-11. and which they analyzed for age by radiocarbon dating. starting in about AD 1500. but with still a long way to go before conditions comparable to those of the Medieval Warm Period are achieved. which is also contemporaneous with what McDermott et al. Then comes the Dark Ages Cold period. Before doing so. whereupon the Little Ice Age sets in just as it does in the Northern Hemisphere. 1998).” and that “the re-establishment of colder conditions. after a thousand-year gap in the data.” demonstrating that the climate of that period was in all likelihood considerably warmer than it is currently.Observations: Temperature Records    Granite Harbor. there is an indication of late twentieth century warming. delayed by about 150 years with respect to Northern Hemisphere Medieval Warming. Hall et al.” as Hall and Denton describe it. in order to reduce deposition differences among sites that might have been induced by differences in local site characteristics. reduced the variability of volcanic depositions. isolating the continental area during cold periods and facilitating the advection of peripheral air masses during warm periods (Krinner and Genthon. Two years later. Citing Budner and Cole-Dai (2003) in noting that “the Antarctic polar vortex is involved in the distribution of stratospheric volcanic aerosols over the continent. 1999). (2004) as reporting evidence from Antarctic ice-core δD and δ18O data “in support of a Medieval Warming-like period in the Southern Hemisphere. say “this warm/cold step could be like a Medieval Climate Optimum-like to Little Ice Age-like transition.” Castellano et al. after which the Medieval Warm Period appears at the same point in time and persists for the same length of time that it does in the vicinity of Ireland. (2006) collected skin and hair (and even some whole-body mummified remains) from Holocene raised-beach excavations at various locations along Antarctica’s Victoria Land Coast.” A year later. we support the hypothesis that the pattern of volcanic deposition intensity and geographical variability [higher values at coastal sites] could reflect a warmer climate of Antarctica in the early last millennium. By these means they obtained data from 14 different locations within their study region—which they describe as being “well south” of the seals’ current “core sub-Antarctic breeding and molting grounds”—that indicate that the period of time they denominate the Seal Optimum began about 600 BC and ended about AD1400. the latter of which dates they describe as being “broadly contemporaneous with the onset of Little Ice Age climatic conditions in the Northern Hemisphere and with glacier advance near [Victoria Land’s] Terra Nova Bay.” The researchers conclude by postulating that “changes in the extent and intra-Antarctic variability of volcanic depositional fluxes may have been consequences of the establishment of a Medieval Warming-like period that lasted until about AD 1500.” 75 . Of most interest to us. “as late as 890 14C yr BP.000 years ago.000-year history of that region’s climate. as delineated by McDermott et al.5 kyr BP. however. the record the dates helped define demonstrated that near the end of the Medieval Warm Period. This work revealed that the general trend of temperature at the study site has been downward. Castellano et al. is the millennial-scale oscillation of climate that is apparent in much of the record. 45°38’W) in the Southern Ocean to construct a 7. they normalized the results at each site by dividing its several volcanic-induced sulfate deposition values by the value produced at that site by the AD 1816 Tambora eruption. observe in the Northern Hemisphere. This climate cycle is such that approximately 2. however. say that assuming the intensity and persistence of the polar vortex in both the troposphere and stratosphere “affect the penetration of air masses to inland Antarctica. which they identified by both visual inspection and DNA analysis as coming from southern elephant seals. Signy Island experienced the relative warmth of the last vestiges of the Roman Warm Period. The chronology of the raised beaches they studied was determined from more than 60 14C dates of incorporated organic materials they had previously collected from hand-dug excavations (Hall and Denton.” Describing this phenomenon in terms of what it implies.

we may validly conclude that the mean peak temperature of the MCA (which we refer to as the Medieval Warm Period) over the latitude range 30°N to 30°S—and possibly over the entire globe—may not have been materially different from the mean peak temperature so far attained during the Current Warm Period. and Denton. and Italian researchers say they are indicative of “warmer-than-present climate conditions” at the times and locations of the identified presence of the southern elephant seal. M. Castellano. Renssen. Antarctica: evidence for Holocene deglaciation of the western Ross Sea. unnatural. G. Holocene history of the Wilson Piedmont Glacier along the southern Scott Coast.D. A late medieval warm period in the Southern Ocean as a delayed response to external forcing. M. Hansson. H. and Oppenheimer. the researchers say “CH3Cl levels were elevated from 900-1300 AD by about 50 ppt relative to the previous 1000 years. and Harris. Hall. and Topf. during the MCA is approximately 533 ppt.” As best we can determine from the graphical representation of their data. 2003. the [Ross] ice shelf survived this period.T. Climate Dynamics 14: 741-758.. Steffensen. Overturf. 1999.. along with the findings of the other studies we have reviewed of the climate of Antarctica.L. Le Boeuf. T. H. G.I. British..A. 2006. Journal of Quaternary Science 14: 641-650. (2007) presented methyl chloride (CH3Cl) measurements of air extracted from a 300-m ice core that was obtained at the South Pole. H. Unstable climate oscillations during the Late Holocene in the Eastern Bransfield Basin.J. J.: Quantitative evidence from a new South Pole ice core. 2004). J. G. P. J. Khim..1029/2003GL019140.” They go on to say that “ice core CH3Cl variability over the last two millennia suggests a positive relationship between atmospheric CH3Cl and global [our italics] mean temperature. Fichefet...L. M.” they say “it is likely that climate-controlled variability in CH3Cl reflects changes in tropical and subtropical conditions.” Noting that “today. Holocene volcanic history as recorded in the sulfate stratigraphy of the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C (EDC96) ice core... before rising again to the modern atmospheric level of 550 ppt..K.. D. B. 2005. McDermott.R. B. New relative sea-level curves for the southern Scott Coast. A.. Krinner. Additional information on this topic. 1999.. suggests mid-Holocene ice-shelf retreat. In describing what they found. Antarctica. Becagli. and Denton. Sediment core from beneath the Amery Ice Shelf. and Rasmussen. 2004.” which would have included both the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Warm Period. G. and Bahk. A. and Udisti. Traversi. Mattey. V. Hutterli.. the US. Hence. T. the peak CH3Cl concentration measured by Williams et al.php. Goosse. Atmospheric methyl chloride. J..H. References Budner.J. Petit.P.. Antarctic Peninsula. Quaternary Research 58: 234-245.) Volcanism and the Earth’s Atmosphere. 2002. Hemer. Holocene elephant seal distribution implies warmer-than-present climate in the Ross Sea.R. Masson-Delmotte.217... suggests there is nothing unusual. 2001. R. D. Khalil. 1998. coincident with the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA).. and Cole-Dai. C.213-10.K. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. C. more than 90% of the CH3Cl sources and the majority of CH3Cl sinks lie between 30°N and 30°S (Khalil and Rasmussen. Hoelzel. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 103: 10.. The Holocene 12: 619-627. and Genthon. and that “if. R. Yoon. Journal of Geophysical Research 110: 10. (Eds.. or unprecedented about the current level of earth’s warmth. van Ommen. B. This conclusion. C. B. 2003. Antarctica. can be found at http://www. which is within 3 percent of its current mean value of 550 ppt and well within the range of 520 to 580 ppt that characterizes methyl chloride’s current variability. B-K. C.L. Centennial-scale Holocene climate variability revealed by a 76 . B. F. as proposed in the literature. Hall. Hall.P.Y.1029/JD005259. Delmotte. A.co2science. Severi.R. B.L.. M. S. Baroni. V.” and that they “decreased to a minimum during the Little Ice Age cooling (1650-1800 AD). subject/a/antarcticmwp.H.. The number and magnitude of large explosive volcanic eruptions between 904 and 1865 A. Kang. it would have been exposed to environments substantially warmer than present. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. 2002. covering the time period 160 BC to AD 1860. Geophysics Monograph Series 139: 165-176. Williams et al. More recently. East Antarctica. Geology 31: 127-130. Yoshida et al.. Morgan. Khim. and Stenni. Rampino. M.A.. Atmospheric Environment 33: 1305-1321.A. C. Denton. In: Robock. E. M. and Hawkesworth. 1999. B.Climate Change Reconsidered    In describing the significance of their findings.H. GCM simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum surface climate of Greenland and Antarctica. R.

they report that temperatures once again rose. which was associated with an approximate 1.” which they note was “the coldest period since the early Holocene in East Greenland..400 years BP.Observations: Temperature Records  high-resolution speleothem ð O record from SW Ireland. Arctic Dahl-Jensen et al. Oxygenisotope (ð18O) evidence of Holocene hydrological changes at Signy Island. M. but that they “have decreased during the last decades. Key to the study were biogeochemical data that. Zeng.J. values of the most recent measurements are not as great as those obtained from the earlier Medieval Warm Period.5-0.” as they describe it. 2004. which indicates that higher temperatures prevailed during the period from 1. (2002).” Wagner and Melles’ data reveal sharp increases in the values of the parameters they measured between about 1100 and 700 years before present (BP). (2002) analyzed diatom assemblages from a highresolution core extracted from the seabed of the north Icelandic shelf to reconstruct a 4.1°C at 4. Starting from a maximum value of about 8.1029/2004JD004951. ending with a final most recent value of approximately 6. Y. there was a partial amelioration during the Medieval Warm Period.300-900 years BP. Tatum.5-m-long sediment core from a lake (Raffels So) on an island (Raffles O) located just off Liverpool Land on the east coast of Greenland.S.” However. temperatures steadily rose to a maximum of 2. and Jones. who derived a climatic history of the Holocene by analyzing the physicalchemical properties of sediments obtained from a small lake in southern Greenland.2. and Yantosea. C. the climate was found to have cooled fitfully for about 1. V. during the Medieval Warm Period. after which temperatures continued their descent into the Little Ice Age.000 years BP was marked by warmth and stability.” These results thus clearly indicate that the Medieval Warm Period in this part of the Arctic was significantly warmer than current temperatures. From 1. They determined that the interval from 6. when the temperature rose by more than 1°C above the line describing the long-term downward trend to effect an almost complete recovery from the colder temperatures of the Dark Ages Cold Period. T. Their data indicate that after the termination of the glacial period.4.H.B.700 years and then more consistently over the final 2.. Williams. maritime Antarctica. Wang. M.3°C. indicative of the summer presence of significant   numbers of seabirds during that “medieval warm period.E. A third relevant Greenland study was conducted by Kaplan et al.000 years ago). The most dramatic departure from this longterm decline was centered on about 850 years BP. where they extracted a 3.1029/2006GL029142. R. in the words of the researchers. 2003. Journal of Geophysical Research 109: 10. The Holocene 13: 251-263. but that the climate cooled thereafter until its culmination in the Little Ice Age.” The Raffels So data also show signs of a “resettlement of seabirds during the last 100 years. obtaining a 10.700 years of the record. M. reflect “variations in seabird breeding colonies in the catchment which influence nutrient and cadmium supply to the lake.. Geophysical Research Letters 34: 10. In a non-Greenland Arctic study.. Science 294: 1328-1331.5°C rise in temperature.000-year record that tells us much about the region’s climatic history.000 to 7. indicated by an increase of organic matter in the lake sediment and confirmed by bird observations. with temperatures 1°C warmer and 0.600-year history of mean summer sea surface temperature at that location. Thereafter. E. Y. 2007. and Saltzman. their data suggest another absence of birds during what they call “a subsequent Little Ice Age. After the Little Ice Age. These data also clearly indicate that the Medieval Warm Period in this part of the Arctic was significantly warmer than it is there now. Yoshida. A three-dimensional global model study of atmospheric methyl chloride budget and distributions. Aydin.000 years. which they analyzed for a number of properties related to the past presence of seabirds there. Jiang et al. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were also documented in the record. (1998) used temperature measurements from two Greenland Ice Sheet boreholes to reconstruct the temperature history of this portion of the earth over the past 50. respectively.7°C cooler than at present. however.J. P. A 2000 year atmospheric history of methyl chloride from a South Pole ice core: Evidence for climate-controlled variability.100 to 700 years BP than what has been observed over the most recent hundred years.. 18 3. Noon. 77 . Leng. Wagner and Melles (2001) also worked on Greenland. which had been preceded by a several-hundred-year period (Dark Ages Cold Period) of little to no bird presence.5°C warmer than at present during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (4.000 to 3.

8°C higher than at present. 1975) show the strong similarity in timing of the MWP between the records.) were ca. Noting that temperature changes in high latitudes are (1) sensitive indicators of global temperature changes. 1998.” In addition. the tree-ring record displays several more of these relatively warmer and colder periods.” Finally. (2002) developed a 2. noting further that “it has been established that the main driver of tree-ring variability at the polar timber-line [where they worked] is temperature (Vaganov et al. Baffin Island. The most dependable portion of this record. they report there is “a clear correlation between [their] MWP reconstruction and several records from Greenland ice cores. anomalously warm decades with summer temperatures as high as 4°C occurred around AD 1000 and 1100. ending in the warmest decade in the record” with temperatures near 4. 0. Schweingruber and Briffa.5°C. based upon the number of trees that were sampled. The strong association between these data and summer (June-August) mean temperatures of the last 129 years of the period then enabled them to produce a 7. Briffa et al. They report that “the relatively warm conditions of the late twentieth century do not exceed those reconstructed for several earlier time intervals.” in their words. (2001) analyzed sediment cores from Donard Lake.” In doing so. This event signaled the onset of the Little Ice Age. Hence. This rapid warming of the thirteenth century was followed by a period of extended warmth that lasted until an abrupt cooling event occurred around 1375 and made the following decade one of the coldest in the record.240-year record of average summer temperatures for this Arctic region.” Going back further in time. in this part of the Arctic the Medieval Warm Period was also warmer than it is there currently. dead. tenth to twelfth [Medieval Warm Period] and during the twentieth [Current Warm Period] centuries. (2002) assembled tree-ring widths from 880 living. temperatures averaged 2.’ known from a variety of historical sources and other proxy records. 14001000 cal yr B. Naurzbaev et al. 1975) and in northern Fennoscandia (Korhola et al. As they describe it. producing a 1.9°C. while at the beginning of the thirteenth century.. they say “the climatic deterioration in the twelfth century can be regarded as the starting point of a prolonged cold period that continued to the first decade of the twentieth 78 century. 1998) and the δ18O record from the Crete ice core (Dansgaard et al. and that they can (2) serve as a basis for verifying climate model calculations.” ..Climate Change Reconsidered    Moore et al. 1996. is also “known from instrumental. until a gradual warming trend began about 1800. 2000).400-year history of summer mean temperature for northern Swedish Lapland. Over the entire period from AD 750-1990. and subfossil northern Swedish pines into a continuous and precisely dated chronology covering the period 5407 BC to AD 1997. their reconstructions “agree with the traditional concept of a ‘Medieval Warm Period’ (MWP) and ‘Little Ice Age’ in the North Atlantic region (Dansgaard et al. which the authors say “display features of century-timescale climatic variation known from other proxy and historical sources.. consisted of the last two millennia. which was followed by a dramatic cooling event in 1900 that brought temperatures back to levels similar to those of the Little Ice Age.. they found that “the warmest periods over the last two millennia in this region were clearly in the third [Roman Warm Period]. 1996).427-year proxy temperature history for the part of the Taimyr Peninsula of northern Russia that lies between 70°30’ and 72°28’ North latitude. whereupon temperatures warmed for about two decades but then tended downwards again all the way to the end of the record in 1990. Donard Lake witnessed “one of the largest climatic transitions in over a millennium. However.” as “average summer temperatures rose rapidly by nearly 2°C from 1195-1220 AD. which lasted for 400 years.” They also note that “the warm period around AD 1000 may correspond to a so-called ‘Mediaeval Warm Period.” and that “comparisons of a smoothed July temperature record from Toskaljavri with measured borehole temperatures of the GRIP and Dye 3 ice cores (DahlJensen et al. This cold regime lasted until about 1950.” Seppa and Birks (2002) used a recently developed pollen-climate reconstruction model and a new pollen stratigraphy from Toskaljarvi—a tree-line lake in the continental sector of northern Fenoscandia (located just above 69°N latitude)—to derive quantitative estimates of annual precipitation and July mean temperature.” where present means the last six decades of the twentieth century. including a warm ‘Roman’ period in the first centuries AD and a generally cold ‘Dark Ages’ climate from about AD 500 to about AD 900..” which “Little Ice Age. they note that “July temperature values during the Medieval Warm Period (ca. historical and proxy records. based on a study of ring-widths of living and preserved larch trees.P.. Grudd et al.” Lastly. Canada.

This further suggests the planet’s more modest current warmth need not be the result of historical increases in these two greenhouse gases.” Their data also reveal three other important pieces of information: (1) the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods were both warmer than the Current Warm Period has been to date. they conclude that “the degree of summer melt was significantly larger during the period 1130-1300 than in the 1990s. (2001).. W. (2) the “beginning of the end” of the Little Ice Age was somewhere in the vicinity of 1830.. BP. 2008. All of these observations are at odds with what is portrayed in the thousand-year Northern Hemispheric “hockey stick” temperature history of Mann et al. (2005). they say—citing seven other studies—that “field-work on other High Arctic lakes clearly indicates that sediment transport and varve thickness are related to temperatures during the short summer season that prevails in this region.” after which “a general temperature decrease in the area marks the transition to .B.Observations: Temperature Records    With respect to the second of these periods. when there was much less CO2 and methane in the air than there is today. they emphasize that “the warmth of the two centuries AD 1058-1157 and 950-1049 attests to the reality of relative mediaeval warmth in this region. J. Bradley. Francus. A record of climate over the last millennium based on varved lake sediments from the Canadian High Arctic. References Besonen. P. as a proxy for summer melt (1130-1990).R. (2008) derived thousand-year histories of varve thickness and sedimentation accumulation rate for Canada’s Lower Murray Lake (81°20’N.co2science. (2004) documented climatic changes over the past 1.200 years by means of highresolution multi-proxy studies of benthic and planktonic foraminiferal assemblages.” In addition. This work revealed that “the time period between 1200 and around 7..” In addition..” based on data obtained from a 121-meter-long ice core they extracted from the highest ice field in Svalbard (Lomonosovfonna: 78°51’53”N. consistent with the Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction of Moberg et al. years BP.S.” even in sea surface temperatures measured over the period 1948-2002. The studies reviewed above indicate that the Arctic—which climate models suggest should be sensitive to greenhouse-gas-induced warming—is still not as warm as it was many centuries ago during portions of the Medieval Warm Period. Besonen et al.php. was characterized by relatively high bottom and surface water temperatures.. 2004) and that “the very warm 2001 summer resulted in similar loss of ions and washout ratios as the earliest part of the core. which was “validated against twentieth-century instrumental records and longer historical climate proxies.” Thereafter. Knudsen et al.” They found “the twelfth and thirteenth centuries were relatively warm. is not [our italics] registered in the proxy data.” They also note that “minimum sea-surface temperatures were reached at around 350 cal. 79 . Stoner.” which likewise suggests that a large portion of the Medieval Warm Period was significantly warmer than the peak warmth (1990s) of the Current Warm Period. M.S. and Abbott. and (3) the Current Warm Period peaked somewhere in the vicinity of 1940. which has also been shown to be the case for Donard Lake (66.. With respect to these parameters. 1999) and its thousand-year global extension developed by Mann and Jones (2003).” and that “there is no clear indication of warming of water masses in the area during the last decades. the Little Ice Age.” They then state that “this suggests that the Medieval Warm Period in Svalbard summer conditions [was] as warm (or warmer) as present-day. (1998. can be found at http://www. Grinsted et al... Patridge. and ice-rafted debris found in three sediment cores retrieved from the North Icelandic shelf. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. 17°25’30”E).” with their data indicating that Lower Murray Lake and its environs were often much warmer during this time period (AD 1080-1320) than they were at any point in the twentieth century.” This history indicated that “in the oldest part of the core (11301200). R. (2006) developed “a model of chemical fractionation in ice based on differing elution rates for pairs of ions . 62°W) by Moore et al.5 to 2 meters at the end of each subject/a/arcticmwp. including the Medieval Warm Period. when very cold conditions were indicated by several proxies. they say “a modern warming of surface waters . the washout indices [were] more than 4 times as high as those seen during the last century. and we have no reason to think that this is not the case for Lower Murray Lake. stable isotopes..800 cal. Additional information on this topic. The Holocene 18: 169-180. which is typically covered for about 11 months of each year by ice that reaches a thickness of 1. M.25°N. indicating a high degree of runoff.. they report they have performed regular snow pit studies near the ice core site since 1997 (Virkkunen. 69°30’W).

S. Miller.J. Osborn. N. T. Clow. Canada. within which they found evidence of “an obvious warm period represented by the high δ18O 80 . and Eiriksson. Nauka. Quaternary Research 57: 191-199. P.D. L.. W. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: 10. Moore. Bradley. J. 1999.. Oulu.D. N. Similarly. W. Holocene climate reconstructions from the Fennoscandian tree-line area based on pollen data from Toskaljavri. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. Schweingruber.1029/2003GL017814. V. East Greenland. Germany. Nature 433: 613-617. Boreas 30: 228239. and Mazepa. P.2. and Hughes. (2002) identified a period of exceptional warmth throughout China between AD 800 and 1100.M. O. A 7400-year tree-ring chronology in northern Swedish Lapland: natural climatic variability expressed on annual to millennial timescales. J. Schweingruber. Hansen. and Jouzel. diatoms and ice rafted debris.E. The Holocene 12: 137-147. Clausen. 2002.M. 2002. P. and Kromer. Finland. and Vaganov.U. Vaganov.H.5. Johnsen.. 2001.A.A. M-S. F. Svalbard. A.. Holmgren. H. N. and Balling. Seidenkrantz.. J. and limitations. Bartholin. Eiriksson. Sonechkin. Hong et al. Jansen. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences.. F. Novosibirsk. H. Moberg..R..A.. H. (Eds. Palaeoceanographic changes off North Iceland through the last 1200 years: foraminifera. M. A.). in response to climatic and oceanic changes. Mann. M.A. 2004. J.1029/2005JD006494. Springer-Verlag. 1998. F. Rytter.H. M. J. A. K. E. M. Knudsen. pp. Knudsen. Moore.H... and Hammer. M. 126° 22’ E). E. F. Dendroclimatic Study in Ural-Siberian Subarctic. A. S.W..B.K. Quaternary Research 58: 149-159. Korhola. 1996. T.T. 2005. and Karlén.. C. E. Late-Holocene summer sea-surface temperatures based on a diatom record from the north Icelandic shelf. Jones.. Wagner..D. Holocene environmental variability in southern Greenland inferred from lake sediments. Martma. Johnsen. Reduced sensitivity of recent tree-growth to temperature at high northern latitudes.. D. A.Climate Change Reconsidered    Briffa.P. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries.S. lake sediment. Science 282: 268-271. Climatic Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years. tree-ring and other proxy sources. D. Past temperatures directly from the Greenland Ice Sheet. 2002.S.. 2002. Svalbard summer melting. Thesis. Holmstrom. Naurzbaev.. stable isotopes. K.R. Dahl-Jensen.S. K. H. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low. Nature 255: 24-28. E. Berlin. 2004. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia.J. Dansgaard.. The Holocene 12: 657-665. H.. and Schweingruber.5. Yafeng et al. Climatic changes. E. Mann. P. continentality.. The Holocene 12: 727-736. Wolfe. N.B. K. Baffin Island. Bradley. 2006. K. Jones. In: Jones... W. (1999) also observed a warm period between AD 970 and 1510 in δ18O data obtained from the Guliya ice cap of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. J.K. Mosegaard. and Birks.D. Seppa. G. Datsenko. B.R.S. and Gudmundsdottir. 2000.. Quaternary Research 54: 284-294. Weckstrom. and Hughes.D. 1998..L. G. and Overpeck. Pohjola.J. Mann. Norsemen and modern man. Sidorova.L. Hughen. ice core. K.S. Snowpit Studies in 2001-2002 in Lomonosovfonna. 2003. Vaganov. NATO ASI Series 141.2.J.and high-resolution proxy data. P. uncertainties. Jiang..S. and Miller. S. Gundestrup.. 43-66. Briffa.. R. Little Ice Age recorded in summer temperature reconstruction from varved sediments of Donard Lake. Russia.H. University of Oulu. J. 1998. G.M. A quantitative Holocene climatic record from diatoms in northern Fennoscandia.G. (2000) developed a 6. K. B.J. H. Kaplan. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.. E.. V. K. and Melles.. Asia 3. T. M. Gundestrup. 2001.E. Shiyatov. R. M. Bradley.000-year δ18O record from plant cellulose deposited in a peat bog in the Jilin Province (42° 20’ N. 3.. Summer temperatures in eastern Taimyr inferred from a 2427-year late-Holocene tree-ring chronology and earlier floating series..E. and Isaksson. and Jones.R. and sea ice extent from the Lomonosovfonna ice core. 1975... Nature 392: 779-787.. A Holocene seabird record from Raffles So sediments. K.R..V.. Yang et al. Shiyatov. 1996.. Tree-ring density network and climate reconstruction. Nature 391: 678-682. M. Quaternary Science Reviews 23: 2231-2246. and Briffa. Journal of Paleolimnology 25: 503517. S.G. Grinsted. M.H. Karlén. Jiang.1.C. Grudd. 2002. R. China Using a variety of climate records derived from peat. and Erasto. Virkkunen.

In the case of the northeastern sector of the plateau. From these several studies. total organic carbon. southern and western sections of the Tibetan Plateau. lending support to the global extent of these events. Little Ice Age and 20th-century warming. Zhang.2°C lower than that of the present. Also working with a stalagmite.” but that between 1. with extreme January minimum temperatures fully 3. 2000.   Among the climatic episodes evident in their data were “those corresponding to the Medieval Warm Period. Hong et al. suggesting that the climate of tropical South China was dry during the ‘Mediaeval Warm Period’. frost. moved gradually into the northern part of China. many of which are described by Gong and Chen (1980). Chu et al. 1994) argue for a warm period from the beginning of the tenth century AD to the late thirteenth century AD. In each case.400 years of dated sediments recovered from seven cores taken from three locations in Lake Huguangyan (21°9’N. the dry-then-wet-then-dry-again MWP began about AD 965 and continued to approximately AD 1475. Man (1990.” Shortly thereafter. Wu and Dang. ice-core CH4. Man. when CO2-induced global warming is projected to be most evident) for the region of China bounded by latitudes 27° and 40°N and longitudes 107° and 120°E. Beijing. 1998. the peak warmth of which was “about 0. and in the case of the southern sector they occurred during both warm periods. distribution patterns of subtropical plants and cold events (Wang and Gong.000-year temperature history of the northeastern. citing De’er (1994). lake water temperatures.Observations: Temperature Records  from around AD 1100 to 1200 which may correspond to the Medieval Warm Epoch of Europe. (2003) assessed the climatic history of the past 3.9-1. in the case of the western sector. and frozen rivers over the past 1. (2002) determined from a study of plant cellulose δ18O variations in cores retrieved from peat deposits at the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau that from AD 1100-1300 “the δ18O of Hongyuan peat cellulose increased. In addition. from whence they inferred the existence of a relatively wet period running from approximately AD 940 to 1200.” In addition. (2000) also report that at the time of the MWP “the northern boundary of the cultivation of citrus tree (Citrus reticulata Blanco) and Boehmeria nivea (a perennial herb). (2003) produced a 2. (2003) utilized proxy climate records (ice-core δ18O. and sedimentary pigments) obtained from 20 prior studies to derive a 2. tree-ring widths. both subtropical and thermophilous plants. sleet. together with information about the presence of snow.” as their own data also suggest.000-year history of winter half-year temperature (October to April. there was more than one prior 50-year period of time when the mean temperature of each region was warmer than it was over the most recent 50-year period. pollen assemblages. Ge et al.9°C warmer on a 10-year basis. magnetic parameters. and that “local historical chronicles support these data. peat-cellulose δ18O. they note there was a major dry period from AD 880-1260.3-0. 2004). Xu et al. 110°17’E) on the low-lying Leizhou Peninsula in the tropical region of South China. they further note that annual mean temperatures in that part of the country during the Medieval Warm Period must have been about 1.” Bao et al. there was an equally aberrant but warm period that “corresponded to the Medieval Warm Period in Europe.6°C higher than present for 30-year periods.000 years at 100-year intervals on the basis of δ18O data. all of the maximum-warmth intervals occurred during the Medieval Warm Period.000 years obtained from historical documents. and the solid-liquid distribution coefficient of Mg.000 and 1. Qian and Zhu (2002) analyzed the thickness of laminae in a stalagmite found in Shihua Cave. Ma et al. they occurred near the end of the Roman Warm Period.5°C warmer than they are today. the Mg/Sr ratio.270 years.300 years ago. but over 0. tree-ring stable carbon isotopes. They report that “recent publications based on the phenological phenomena.” In terms of timing. it is evident that for a considerable amount of time during the Medieval 81 .” Based on 200 sets of phenological and meteorological records extracted from a number of historical sources. 1998.” Considering the climatic conditions required to successfully grow these plants. “air temperature was about 1. (2002) studied the geochemistry of 1. They found that between 200 and 500 years ago. and it has been estimated that the annual mean temperature was 0. glacier fluctuations. Sheng (1990). consistent with that of Jinchuan peat cellulose and corresponding to the ‘Medieval Warm Period’. (2003) used high-resolution δ13C and δ18O data derived from a stalagmite found in Buddha Cave [33°40’N.0°C higher than at present. 109°05’E] to infer changes in climate in central China for the past 1. Their work revealed a significant warm epoch that lasted from the AD 570s to the 1310s.0°C higher than at present. and Wen and Wen (1996). this one from Jingdong Cave about 90 km northeast of Beijing.” Paulsen et al.

. The Holocene 12: 511-516. H. X. and Qin. Fang. and Gong. Ge. 2002. Li. Winter-Half-Year Cold/Warm Change in Historical Period of China. W. Sun. W. Q.. Climate Change in Historical Period of China. S.E.-C. Johnson. Liu... X. H. Jiang. Man. Man. Peng. L. Beijing. S.. J.T.. Response of climate to solar forcing recorded in a 6000-year δ18O time-series of Chinese peat cellulose. Lin. and Liu. H. Xia.2. 1990. other than high atmospheric CO2 concentrations.. The reconstructed temperature history revealed the existence of a number of climatic excursions.. Beijing. Science in China Series D-Earth Sciences 42 Supp.. Y. S. Ji’nan. B.” Further north. Evidence for the existence of the medieval warm period in China. The Holocene 13: 933-940. Late Holocene temperature fluctuations on the Tibetan Plateau..000-year history of ground surface temperature in the Middle Urals within the western rim of the Tagil subsidence (58°24’ N. Y.5.. 1998. Man. Braeuning. Zheng.. reviews of newer publications as they become Sheng. Climatic Change 26: 287-297.W. Decadal climatic variations recorded in Guliya ice core and comparison with the historical documentary data from East China during the last 2000 years.php.. On the variation of the growing season and agriculture.. The temperature of several typical periods during the Holocene in China. can be found at http://www.1029/2001GL014485.. and Zhang. China. Lu. Historical Geography 8: 1-15.. 1994. (2001) analyzed subfossil wood samples from the Khibiny mountains 82 . and Zhu. 2004.G.. 1999... A.. Chinese Science Bulletin 48: 395-400. Ku. 2002. 2003. Q. Man. Y.. Wen. Hong..P. and Yafeng. and Zhu. Z. The Advance in Nature Science 10: 325-332. 1980. The Holocene 10: 17. many parts of China exhibited warmer variability in central China over the last 1270 years conditions than those of modern times. H.B. A. during the past 2000 years.Z. Z. Evidence for the existence of the Medieval Warm Period in China. Quaternary Science Reviews 22: 2335-2344. Z.D.R. Z. References Bao. and Yafeng. T. Hong. 2000. Chen. De’er.R. Wang. Z. whatever was responsible for them could be Qian. A preliminary exploration of the warmth available. Q. 2002. Beer.-C. Jiang.co2science. A. and coldness in Henan Province in the historical period. S. Fluctuation and characteristics of climate change in temperature of SuiTang times in China. inferred from historical and stalagmite Additional information on this topic. M. including. Li. and Wang. H.. General characteristics of temperature variation in China during the last two millennia. and Dang.2. subject/m/mwpchina. 2003. and Wen. Quaternary earlier high temperatures were caused by something Science Reviews 22: 691-701. China.E. Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River. Hiller et al. Y.Climate Change Reconsidered    Paulsen. Quaternary Sciences 1: 20-30. Xu. Leng. Z. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica 4: 24-29. Wang. Tandong. J. 1990. Z.. China: A reconstruction based on Mg/Sr records in a stalagmite. Quaternary Sciences 1: 31-38. Little Ice Age climate near responsible for the warmth of today.S. Ma.: 91-100. Zhou. Temperature variations in the past 6000 years inferred from δ18O of peat cellulose from Hongyuan. Hong. Y... Russia Demezhko and Shchapov (2001) studied a borehole extending to more than 5 km depth. 59°44’E). Brauning. Study on the cold/warm stages of Tang Dynasty and the characteristics of each cold/warm stage. B. 1996. Since those revealed by high-resolution stalagmite records. G. Climate Warm Period. Quaternary Research 57: 109-119. Shandong Education Press.. Gu. including records. Zhang. H. Wu. and Chen. P. D. J. Y.Y. China. 2002. Climate in Tang Dynasty of China: discussion for its evidence. in their words. Liu. Geophysical Research Letters 29: 10. Hong. H.. The ‘Mediaeval Warm Period’ drought recorded in Lake Huguangyan. D. Chu. 2000. Z. G. X. Climatic Change 26: 289-297. Yang. D. B. China. and Bao. 1998. 3. and Ku. Y.. T. 1994. Gong. H.. Li.-L.T.. tropical South China. X. 2003. Paleotemperature changes over the past 3000 years in eastern Beijing. H. M. F. H. Zhang. W. Zhang.Q. T. 2003. the “Medieval Warm Period with a culmination about 1000 years ago. K. T. Yafeng. E. Science Press. reconstructing an 80. Historical Geography 7: 160-170. Y. Chinese Science Bulletin 47: 1578-1584.

M.M. in their words. hydrologic evidence. Other Asia Locations In addition to China and Russia. the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) has been identified in several other parts of Asia.. Variation of early summer and annual temperature in east Taymir and Putoran (Siberia) over the last two millennia inferred from tree rings. Hiller. M.” additionally noting that “the abnormally severe winters [of the LIA] were associated with the spread of Arctic air masses over the entire Russian Plain. Climate changes in the preinstrumental period of the last millennium and their manifestations over the Russian Plain. can be found at http://www. and Schweingruber.E. Medieval climatic warming recorded by radiocarbon dated alpine tree-line shift on the Kola Peninsula.500 years. Krenke. uncertainties. glaciological evidence.M. 2002. M. 1998. They determined that between AD 1000 and 1300 the tree-line was located at least 100-140 m above its current elevation. Global and Planetary Change 29: 167-178.S.2. Bradley.. Mann. stating unequivocally that “the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age existed globally. suggests that mean summer temperatures during this “Medieval climatic optimum” were “at least 0.. E.3. they note that the data they used to draw these conclusions were “not used in the reconstructions performed by Mann et al.. M. A. R.K. M. they report large differences in a number of variables between the Little Ice Age (LIA) and MWP. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 38: S59S79. A. 2001.co2science.” which perhaps explains why the Mann et al. the Russians state that “an analysis of climate variations over 1000 years should help … reveal natural   multicentennial variations possible at present but not detectable in available 100-200-year series of instrumental records. they report an MWP to LIA drop on the order of 1.E.A. 2001. Nature 392: 779-787. The Holocene 11: 491-497. J. to once in 20 years in the LIA. Esper. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 73177326.200-year proxy temperature record (212 BC to 1996 AD) using treering data obtained from 118 trees near the upper timberline in subject/m/mwprussia. and palynological data. and Shchapov.Observations: Temperature Records  on the Kola Peninsula of Russia (67-68°N. R. Concentrating on data wholly from within Russia.000 years ground surface temperature history inferred from the temperature-depth log measured in the superdeep hole SG4 (the Urals.. In discussing their approach to the subject of global warming detection and attribution. which corresponds to the MWP. 83 . Isvestiya.N. temperature history of the past millennium does not depict the coolness of the LIA or the warmth of the MWP nearly as well as the more appropriately derived temperature history of Esper et al. 1999.K. E. 33-34°E) in an effort to reconstruct the region’s climate history over the past 1.Yu. and Hughes.” Additional information on this topic. This observation. Science 295: 2250-2253. and limitations. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Based on their results. dendrological data.A. References Demezhko. and Chernavskaya. C. and Vaganov. Cook. 80. Russia.” and that “the warming at the border of the first and second millennia was longer in time and similar in amplitude. they concluded that the warming experienced in the twentieth century was “not extraordinary.” Finally.” Additional evidence for the Medieval Warm Period in Russia comes from Naurzbaev and Vaganov (2000). and Kremenetski.5. T. V.” and that “the Medieval optimum was the most pronounced warm climate phase on the Kola Peninsula during the last 1500 years. and Hughes. Naurzbaev.” Krenke and Chernavskaya (2002) present an impressive overview of what is known about the MWP within Russia. D. 3. Mann. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. who developed a 2. F.8°C higher than today. M. With respect to the annual mean temperature of northern Eurasia.” In this endeavor. (2002). Lowfrequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability.H.5°C. 2002. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. archaeological data.S. 2000. based on historical evidence.R. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences.php. They also say that “the frequency of severe winters reported was increased from once in 33 years in the early period of time. as well as throughout the world. Russia). Bradley. they were highly successful. Boettger.

and long-term increasing trends from about 1800 to the present.700 years ago. Then. Fritts. and at about 1500. the SPL chronologies depict significant inter-decadal variations but no longer-term trends. 1998. (2002a). 1991. together with the physical and geochemical properties of sediments. 1990.” in addition to “a precipitation maximum at the Nile headwaters (Bell and Menzel. which is vastly different from the hockey stick temperature history of Mann et al. on the other hand. 1989) and in the northeastern Arabian Sea (von Rad et al.’s data indicate the climate “became much cooler. while during the last 200 years there has been a rather steady warming. 74-76°E) and the Southern Tien Shan of Kirghizia (40°10’N. from 1. there is almost no comparison between the two periods.. including. Nicholson. 1981. high Dead Sea levels (Issar et al. (2003).000 and 1. ring-widths increased once again. 1991. where they found evidence for the MWP centered on AD 1200.” This grand result has essentially the same form as the Northern Hemisphere extratropic temperature history of Esper et al. Kar et al. who processed several extremely long juniper ring-width chronologies for the Alai Range of the western Tien Shan in Kirghizia in such a way as to preserve multicentennial growth trends that are typically “lost during the processes of tree ring data standardization and chronology building (Cook and Kairiukstis. however. but the amplitude of this trend is not comparable to the conditions around AD 1000. Kar et al. in the words of Esper et al. (2002b) used more than 200. but Esper et al. (2002b) report that “the twentiethcentury trend does not approach the AD 1000 maximum. and high levels of the Sea of Galilee (Frumkin et al. 1972. As the authors describe the situation. Carried back in time a full thousand years. Towards the end of the twentieth century. as shown by Esper et al. 1996). (1998. which are nowhere to be found in the Mann reconstructions. which has a much smaller variance than the RCS chronology—depicts several periods in the first half of the last millennium that were warmer than 84 . Ambrose and DeNiro. minimum tree ring-widths were reached that persisted well into the seventeenth century. 72°35’E) to reconstruct regional patterns of climatic variations in Western Central Asia since AD 618. In discussing their findings..” In doing so. in their words.000 ring-width measurements obtained from 384 trees at 20 individual sites ranging from the lower to upper timberline in the Northwest Karakorum of Pakistan (35-37°N. “the main feature of the LTM and RCS Alai Range chronologies is a multi-centennial wave with high values towards both ends.” The latest contribution to Asian temperature reconstruction is the study of Esper et al. 1990.700 to 850 years ago. 1999) and Mann and Jones (2003). Hassan. “growing conditions in the twentieth century exceed the long-term average.Climate Change Reconsidered    Schilman et al. (2003). 1980).” Between AD 1000 and 1200. show long-term decreasing trends from the start of the record until about AD 1600. and between AD 900 and 1000. (2002a) to have been characteristic of the entire Northern Hemisphere. contained in two cores extracted from the bed of the southeastern Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Israel. The LTM and RCS chronologies. 1999). (2002) explored the nature of climate change preserved in the sediment profile of an outwash plain two to three km from the snout of the Gangotri Glacier in the Uttarkashi district of Uttranchal. their data reveal the existence of a relatively cool climate. tree growth was exceptionally rapid. In addition. they used two techniques that maintain low frequency signals: long-term mean standardization (LTM) and regional curve standardization (RCS). Subsequent to that time. Esper et al.” during the transition from the depth of the Dark Ages Cold Period to the midst of the Medieval Warm Period. 1976). As a result.” indicative of its transition to Little Ice Age conditions. as well as the more conventional spline standardization (SPL) technique that obscures (actually removes) long-term trends. Issar and Makover-Levin.” In fact. Between 2. the Medieval Warm Period was already firmly established and growing even warmer by the early seventh century. 1978. in that it depicts the existence of both the Little Ice Age and preceding Medieval Warm Period. at rates they say “cannot be observed during any other period of the last millennium. with the Medieval Warm Period being much more conducive to good tree growth than the Current Warm Period. At a pair of other Asian locations. they note there is an abundance of other evidence for the existence of the MWP in the Eastern Mediterranean as well. 1996). growing conditions deteriorated. the new result—especially the LTM chronology. Issar and Makover-Levin.. 1989. According to their analysis. (2001) analyzed foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotopes. Western Himalaya. broad minima from 1600 to 1800.” Further to the east. “high Saharan lake levels (Schoell. there was what they call an “amelioration of climate. Issar.

M.) Diachronic Climatic Impacts on Water Resources with Emphasis on the Mediterranean Region. Vegetation vis-à-vis climate and glacial fluctuations of the Gangotri Glacier since the last 2000 years. M. 1976. M. Wilson. N. Science 295: 2250-2253.H. A. 2003. In: Leinen. Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories. (Eds. London. Springer. Additional information on this topic. M.S. Toward the observation and interpretation of solar phenomena. pp.. Hassan. Environment and Society in Times of Climate Change. Dordrecht. A. V. Israel Journal of Earth-Science 40: 219-223. A. Bhattacharyya.A.S.K.php.S.E. Ranhotra. and Sarnthein. Bell. (Eds. and Schweingruber. 8-12. Climate changes during the Upper Holocene in Israel. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. 55-75. uncertainties. H. pp. The Holocene climatic record of the salt caves of Mount Sedom. Tree Rings and Climate. 1990. pp.A. M. 1991.J. 2002a. Issar. and Menzel. AFCRL F19628-69C-0077 and AFCRL-TR-74-0357. S. Esper et al.” We would also remark. R. Paleoclimatology and Paleometeorology: Modern and Past Patterns of Global Atmospheric Transport. Magaritz. and Makover-Levin. Wakshal.H. and Sekar B. Heidelberg.S. 1989. Quaternary Research 31: 407-422.G.S. and Zak.E. R.. Germany. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Heidelberg. Y. Climate Dynamics 21: 699-706.R.. Climate and habitat reconstruction using stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of collagen in prehistoric herbivore teeth from Kenya. 1996. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences.. The Holocene 12: 267-277. Graybill.S.. Frumkin. E. 113-128.Observations: Temperature Records    any part of the last century. C. I. A. In commenting on their important findings.J. M. Esper. can be found at http://www. Climate change: detection and attribution of trends from long-term geologic data. Kluwer Academic Publishers. and Brown. Climate changes during the Holocene in the Mediterranean region. Shiyatov. A. S. D. D. and limitations. Mazepa. and Hughes. 36.R. Issar. The Netherlands.H. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences. 2002b. Kluwer. MA. NATO ASI Series. R.). A.C. Geyh. M. F. 1990.. I. pp.E. L. G. References Ambrose. In: Angelakis. M. Current Science 82: subject/a/asiamwp. which has also been found to have been warmer than it is currently by McIntyre and McKitrick (2003) and by Loehle (2004). J. Israel. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. D. (Eds. and Levin. J. that a good portion of that trend may have been due to the aerial fertilization effect of the concomitantly increasing atmospheric CO2 content. and DeNiro. 1972. Bradley.H. relative to those of the past century. Academic Press.S. M. In: Issar. Climate change and history during the Holocene in the eastern Mediterranean region. M. and Jones. Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies and the reconstruction of past temperature variability. 1981. Vol. A. Mann. Schweingruber. 1991. UK. M. Issar. Mann. 1989. and Funkhouser. Fritts. Bradley. P.. Science 212: 1142-1145. 535-541. Water Shall Flow from the Rock. and Wolf. Esper. Bedford. and Hughes. Temperaturesensitive Tien Shan tree ring chronologies show multicentennial growth trends.K.S. R. J.S.. E.A. I. Nature 392: 779-787. 2003. Cook. (2003) remark that “if the tree ring reconstruction had been developed using ‘standard’ detrending procedures only. Carmi..) Water. These periods include much of the latter half of the Medieval Warm Period and a good part of the first half of the fifteenth century. Kluwer Academic Publishers. F.’s LTM and RCS reconstructions. Dordrecht.. Loehle. 1998. B. with respect to the upward trend of their data since 1800. which is known to greatly stimulate the growth of trees. Issar. 1300 years of climatic history for Western Central Asia inferred from tree-rings. Holocene 1: 191-200. The Netherlands. A. 1998. than they appear to be in Esper et al.S.S. Ecological Modelling 171: 433-450. Climatic changes in Israel during historical times and their impact on hydrological. E. The Netherlands.S. Kar.. Issar. Springer. Cook. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. A. Historical Nile floods and their implications for climatic change. Esper. 2002. Tsoar. Properly accounting for this very real effect would make the warmer-thanpresent temperatures of the first half of the past millennium even warmer.co2science.. Mann.. 1999.A. pedological and socio-economic systems. F. and Issar. Dordrecht. A. and Kairiukstis.A.. Germany. 85 .D..1029/2003GL017814. Govrin. and Winiger. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. M. H. 2004. it would have been limited to inter-decadal scale variation and would have missed some of the common low frequency signal. P. D..

8°C higher than today. Saharan climates in historic times. In addition. one spanning a period of 8. Ankara. and Luz. Nesje et al. in their words. In: Degens. August temperatures ranged between 6° and 8°C. “widely recognized as powerful biological proxies for inferring past climate change. in a study of a welldated sediment core from the Bornholm Basin in the southwestern Baltic Sea.400.400 years. when they note there was “a major decrease in warm water taxa in the diatom assemblage and an increase in cold water taxa. the larval-stage head capsules of which are well preserved in lake sediments and are. B. pp.3 months per year. in their words. Palaeogeography. H. Schilman.6. 173200. 3. V.” The warmth ended rather abruptly. (1998) proxy data base and Northern Hemispheric average temperature series. (Ed. The researchers state that this fact implies a mean summer temperature that was “at least 0. Riech. 1999. This record indicates that between AD 1000 and 1300. resulted from the “post-Medieval climate deterioration characterized by lower air temperature.J.” In eastern Norway. (2001) made detailed measurements of a number of properties of sedimentary material extracted from the bottom of a fjord on the west coast of Norway. M.Climate Change Reconsidered    McIntyre.000 years documented in laminated sediments off Pakistan. as opposed to the modern mean of 4. 2001. Andren et al. Hiller et al. Palaeogeography.. M.. deriving a relative temperature history of the region that spanned the last five millennia.. Global climate instability reflected by Eastern Mediterranean marine records during the late Holocene. The Netherlands. and McKitrick. Many of the diatoms of that period were warm water species that the scientists say “cannot be found in the present Baltic Sea. and Sirocko. Multiple monsoon-controlled breakdown of oxygen-minimum conditions during the past 30.2. in their words. For the bulk of the past 4. they determined that temperatures there peaked at about 11°C during what they refer to as the “Little Climatic Optimum”— which we typically call the Medieval Warm Period— . Rotterdam. S. H. significantly warmer than the present mean of 4.000. U. M. the tree-line there was located at least 100 to 140 meters above its current location. Schoell. 2003. followed by cooling pulses coincident with lowered salinity and extended ice cover in the vicinity of 5. and 100 years before present. Europe Based on analyses of subfossil wood samples from the Khibiny mountains on the Kola Peninsula of Russia. however. 1978. and Faure. Balkema. pp. They observed “a period of little flood activity around the Medieval period (AD 1000-1400). however.” which was followed by “a period of the most extensive flood activity in the Atnsjoen catchment.300 years and one spanning a period of 4. Energy and Environment 14: 751-771.” which latter diatoms are characteristic of what they 86 call the Recent Baltic Sea Stage that prevails to this day. (Eds. Oxygen isotope analysis on authigenic carbonates from Lake Van sediments and their possible bearing on the climate of the past 10.400 years. Kurtman.D.000 to 3. 3.A. and more frequent storms associated with the ‘Little Ice Age’. den Dulk.500-year history of alpine tree-line elevation. E. and 2. “had the highest bottom-water temperatures in Sulafjorden during the last 5000 years.500 years ago.500. The shorter core additionally revealed cooling pulses at tentative dates of 1. (2001) were able to reconstruct a 1. Turkey. The longer of the two cores indicated a warm interval from about 8. 92-97. Moving back towards land. 1330 to 1600 that. (2001) analyzed a sediment core obtained from Lake Atnsjoen. This record revealed the existence of a period stretching from A. Schulz. Mikalsen et al. at about AD 1200. Brooks and Birks (2001) studied midges. R. Bar-Matthews. Palaeoclimatology. Palaeoecology 176: 157-176.. F. Almogi-Labin. The Mineral Research and Exploration Institute of Turkey. In another marine study.500-year record of river flooding. A. they report.” Working in both Norway and Scotland. B.000 years. Nicholson. Voronina et al. Palaeoecology 152: 129-161. thicker and more long-lasting snow cover.” Applying this technique to sediments derived from a lake in the Cairngorms region of the Scottish Highlands. S. ice cover lasted only two to three months per year. deriving a 4. von Rad. In: Williams. Corrections to the Mann et al..E. U. 1980.” Moving from land to water.000 years before present.) The Sahara and the Nile. Berner. (2000) found evidence for a period of high primary production at approximately AD 1050. (2001) analyzed dinoflagellate cyst assemblages in two sediment cores retrieved from the southeastern Barents Sea.) The Geology of Lake Van. Palaeoclimatology. 300. “corresponds to the time when the Vikings succeeded in colonizing Iceland and Greenland.” This balmy period.T..6°C. M.” This flooding.

he determined there was a positive correlation between human impact/land-use and climate change. 1997).5°C less than the 11°C value the authors found for the Medieval Warm Period. we might add. In another study of three stalagmites found in a cave in northwest Germany.” where summer temperatures were “about 0. with high treelines.. lake and sea levels. which evidence also implies the existence of what McDermott et al. which led to “reforestation in large areas of central Europe and Scandinavia. glacier activity. as is demonstrated by their citing of Keigwin (1996) to the effect that “sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions show that SST was ca. glacier retreat. and reduced lake catchment erosion. leading into the so-called Medieval Warm Epoch.4°C warmer than the present day” during the Medieval Warm Period.. To give some context to this finding. western Norway (Velle. in the latter part of the record.” when “the climate was warm and dry.” These results.” In doing so.5°C. 1°C warmer than today during the MWP. 1998).” Also evident in the data were the ð18O signatures of the earlier Roman Warm Period and Dark Ages Cold Period that comprised the preceding millennial-scale cycle of climate in that region. as well as the existence of the unnamed cold period that preceded the Roman Warm Period.” which is 0. they add that during the Medieval Warm Period. tree line.” Next came what Berglund calls a “boom period” that covered “several centuries from AD 700 to 1100.D. 1999) as well as sea surface temperatures based on diatom stratigraphy in [the] Norwegian Sea (Jansen and Koc. according to Brooks and Birks. (2001) derived a ð18O record from a stalagmite that provided evidence for climatic variations that are “broadly consistent with a Medieval Warm Period at ~1000 ± 200 years ago and a two-stage Little Ice Age. (1999) analyzed a sediment core extracted from Lake Neuchatel in the western Swiss Lowlands. there was. (1999) share similar views. who identified several periods of expansion and decline of human cultures in northwest Europe and compared them with a history of reconstructed climate “based on insolation. the mean annual air temperature was “on average higher than at present. and tree growth. (2003) discovered that the climate records they contained “resemble records from an Irish stalagmite (McDermott et al. Bodri and Cermak (1999) derived individual ground surface temperature histories from the   temperature-depth logs of 98 separate boreholes drilled in the Czech Republic. (1997).” which they describe as “one of the warmest postglacial times.5°C which may coincide with the ‘Little Ice Age’.” Filippi et al. Filippi et al.Observations: Temperature Records  “before cooling by about 1. McDermott et al.” He additionally notes that “this period was one of rapid cooling indicated from tree-ring data (Eronen et al. Niggemann et al. in his words. From these data they detected “the existence of a medieval warm epoch lasting from A. a great “retreat of agriculture” centered on about AD 500. when there was a gradual change to cool/moist climate.” specifically noting that their own records provide evidence for the existence of the Little Ice Age. the Medieval Warm Period and the Roman Warm Period. which can be correlated with Bond’s event 1 in the North Atlantic sediments (Bond et al. 1°C cooler than today about 400 years ago and ca. since the upper sample of the lake sediment core from that region. Moving to Switzerland.” This period “lasted until around AD 1200. This latter observation also appears to hold for the Scottish site.” Citing Bond et al. we report the findings of Berglund (2003). bog growth. they went on to suggest that “the observed recent warming may thus be easily a natural return of climate from the previous colder conditions back to a ‘normal’. they detected a drop of approximately 1. During this same transition from the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) to the Little Ice Age (LIA).” In Ireland. Specifically. Lastly. the beginning of the 87 . “reconstructs the modern temperature at about 10. which was collected in 1993. where both cultural and climate changes were best defined.” This interval of time proved to be “a favourable period for agriculture in marginal areas of Northwest Europe.” which.. “are in good agreement with a chironomid stratigraphy from Finse. Noting that this spectacular warm period was followed by the Little Ice Age. they say that “the warming during the 20th century does not seem to have fully compensated the cooling at the MWP-LIA transition. has absolutely nothing to do with variations in the air’s CO2 content.5°C in mean annual air temperature. 1100-1300. (2001) call the Dark Ages Cold Period that separated the Medieval and Roman Warm Periods.” And to make the message even more clear. they further note that the MWP and LIA are merely the most recent manifestations of “a pervasive millennial-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean climate oscillation. 2000). in a cave in the southwestern part of the country. 1999).

Niggemann. P.. Frisia.600 years in stalagmites from the B7 cave. Fairchild. C.E. Mikalsen. G. The Little Ice Age and Medieval believe the planet may be on a natural climate Warm Period in the Sargasso Sea... Priori. Verheyden..B. G.. Huang. A. I. 2001. Science 174: 1504-1508. Holocene climate variability in Additional information on this topic. R.. Lambert. Journal of Paleolimnology 25: 329-342.. There Jansen. Thesis. Holocene humidity changes in northern Finnish Lapland inferred from lake sediments and submerged Scots pines dated by tree-rings. Heaton.co2science. Borsato. A. 2001.K. E. 2000.. L. S. 1999.. B. M. Quaternary Science Reviews 20: 1723-1741. T. A pervasive millennial-scale climate cycle in the North Atlantic: The Holocene and late glacial record. G. subject/e/europemwp. and Bonani. J. M. G. C.. Journal of Paleolimnology 21: 19-34. and Peyron. textural and extensionreviews of newer publications as they become rate variations in speleothems.. F. and Koc. I. There is nothing we McDermott.. with severe consequences for the Holocene 11: 491-497.. Cheseby. 3. Journal of Quaternary Science 16: 717726. Medieval climatic warming recorded by radiocarbon dated McDermott. Sejrup. Hyvarinen.Sc. Andren. Chironomid-inferred air temperatures from Lateglacial and Holocene sites in north-west Europe: progress and problems. and Bernasconi. N.L. including Europe: evidence from delta18O. V. reap the benefits.J. Dahl. Boettger. Quaternary Science Reviews available. A.S.J. 1996. A paleoclimate record of the last 17. W.D.E. D. and Selmo. References Andren.. Brooks. can be found at http://www. C. Russia. Voronina. M.. Boreas 29: 233-250.. D. The Holocene history of the southwestern Baltic Sea as reflected in a sediment core from the Bornholm Basin. by the study of Berglund (2003).. and Zetterberg. A ~ 4500-yr record of river floods obtained from a sediment core in Lake Atnsjoen.. western Norway. eastern Norway. Hawkesworth. reconstructed from dinoflagellate cyst assemblages..Climate Change Reconsidered    alpine tree-line shift on the Kola Peninsula. Mangini. Centennial-scale Holocene climate variability revealed by a high-resolution speleothem ð18O record from SW Ireland. Bodri. P.. 1999. trajectory that is taking it back to a state reminiscent of the Medieval Warm Period. Sauerland.. S. van Borgh. Climatic and anthropogenic influence on the stable isotope record from bulk carbonates and ostracodes in Lake Neuchatel. Human impact and climate changes—synchronous events and a causal link? Quaternary International 105: 7-12.. Richter. Based on the fact that the northernmost twentieth century location of the forest 88 . Lotti. and Hawkesworth. 2001. Velle.. Filippi. University of Bergen. S. E. H. Germany. A.H. than it is currently. Kubler. and Berrisford. deMenocal. Climate change of the last millennium inferred from borehole temperatures: Regional patterns of climatic changes in the Czech Republic—Part III. S. 2001. H. 1999.. LateHolocene changes in ocean circulation and climate: foraminiferal and isotopic evidence from Sulafjord. F.7. North America Arseneault and Payette (1997) analyzed tree-ring and growth-form sequences obtained from more than 300 spruce remains buried in a presently treeless peatland in northern Quebec to produce a proxy record of climate for this region of the continent between 690 and 1591 AD. M. The Holocene 9: 569-580. H.P. and Aarseth. Science 294: 1328-1331. Bond. P. Y. and Wurth. and Cermak. Hiller. 1999. Polyak. agrarian society. Keppens. E.. Nesje. B. there is reason to Keigwin. J..php.. T. 2001. Global and Planetary Change 21: 225-235. Mattey.. M. Quaternary Science Reviews 22: 555-567. H. 2003. 2003. A paleoecological study of chironomids (Insecta: Diptera) with special reference to climate. De Vernal. 2000. L. Showers. Almasi..P. 2001.2.” The story from Europe seems quite clear. Switzerland. 1998.... O. Hunziker. during the last two millennia.. Hajdes.O. L. Perhaps the most outstanding feature of this history was the warm period it revealed between 860 and 1000 AD. The Holocene 11: 437-446. G. Century to decadal scale was a several-hundred-year period in the first part of records of Norwegian sea surface temperature variations of the last millennium that was significantly warmer the past 2 millennia. E. as is implied S. Longinelli. Spiro. T. E. Berglund. PAGES Newsletter 8(1): 13-14. and Birks. A. In addition.. Cullen. A. P. and Sohlenius. Science 278: 1257-1266.. and Kremenetski. Holocene variations of sea-surface conditions in the southeastern Barents Sea. Eronen. 18: 1021-1038. S. The Little Ice Age . I. Matthews. S. P. G. C. can do about this natural cycle except.

2001) associated with oceanatmosphere feedbacks acting as global teleconnections agents.” They also note that “millennial-scale shifts over at least the past 5. “with ice and marine records. “culminat[ed] in the Little Ice Age. a major transition that began approximately 1. and millennial time scales. additionally note that “the large-scale nature of these transitions and the fact that they are found in different proxies confirms the hypothesis that Holocene and late glacial climate variations of millennial-scale were abrupt transitions between climatic regimes as the atmosphere-ocean system reorganized in response to some forcing. was Campbell (2002). centennial. 2003). Alberta.000 years.076 14C dates from the North American Pollen Database used to date sequences in more than 700 pollen diagrams across North America. occurring approximately every 1. 1300-1850).” Viau et al. on back through the Holocene and into the preceding late glacial period. Results of their statistical analyses indicated there were nine millennial-scale oscillations during the past 14.000 years in which continent-wide synchronous vegetation changes with a periodicity of roughly 1. where they too detected a Medieval Warm Period that lasted for “at least a few centuries prior to A. In giving some context to these findings. inferred from two sites several hundreds of kilometers to the southwest in the mountain hemlock zone of southern British Columbia (Hallett et al. between sustained periods of wetter and drier conditions. Laird et al.” They go on to say that “although several mechanisms for such natural [our italics] forcing have been advanced. (2003) studied diatom assemblages in sediment cores taken from three Canadian and three United States lakes situated within the northern prairies of North America.500 years. who used a version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM to estimate climatic differences between the period of the Maunder Minimum in solar irradiance (mid-1600s to early 1700s) and a century later.” Additional evidence for the solar forcing of these millennial-scale climate changes is provided by Shindell et al. with the times of all major pollen transitions being “consistent. (2001) carefully reviewed what they termed “the most current and comprehensive research of Holocene glaciation” along the northernmost Gulf of Alaska between the Kenai Peninsula and Yakutat Bay. The most recent of the vegetation transitions was centered at approximately 600 years BP (before present). recent evidence points to a potential solar forcing (Bond et al.” Also identifying the Medieval Warm Period.D.5°W) to provide a non-vegetation-based high-resolution record of climate variability for this part of North America over the past 4.Observations: Temperature Records    tree-line is presently 130 km south of their study site.” in the words of the authors of the study. 113. suggests that these millennial-scale dynamics are linked and operate over wide spatial scales.650 years were recorded in the pollen records. A. when solar output was relatively high for several decades. while in the United States they occurred near its end. the Dark Ages Cold Period (about BC 100 to AD 700). The most predominant departures were several-centuries-long epochs that corresponded to the Little Ice Age (about AD 15001900). (2002) analyzed a set of 3.. Viau et al. finding that “shifts in drought conditions on decadal through multicentennial scales have prevailed in this region for at least the last two millennia. Canada (52°N. Periods of both increasing and decreasing grain size (related to moisture availability) were noted throughout the 4. and the Roman Warm Period (about BC 900-100).” Prior to that event. have been reported from western Canada (Cumming et al. the scientists concluded that the “Medieval Warm Period was approximately 1°C warmer than the 20th century. the Medieval Warm Period (about AD 7001300). who analyzed the grain sizes of sediment cores obtained from Pine Lake.” In Canada. A..” Furthermore. 2002). 1200. they note that “these transitions are identifiable across North America and presumably the world. (2001).” And so it goes. as well as other major warm and cold periods of the millennial-scale climatic oscillation that is responsible for them.D. 800-1300) and the onset of the Little Ice Age (ca.D. with maximum cooling 300 years ago.” In an effort to determine whether these climatedriven millennial-scale cycles are present in the terrestrial pollen record of North America.. major shifts occurred near the beginning of the Medieval Warm Period. This event. the authors state that “distinct patterns of abrupt change in the Northern Hemisphere are common at or near the termination of the Medieval Warm Period (ca.600 years BP represents the climatic amelioration that “culminat[ed] in the maximum warming of the Medieval Warm Period 1000 years ago.” and that “the striking correspondence of these shifts to large changes in fire frequencies.” Shifting to the other side of the continent. in the words of the authors.220 years. Their results 89 .000-year record at decadal. Calkin et al.

beginning about 1000 years ago. S. and Bonani. D. K. and Engstrom.. 1997). Laird et al. described by during the last two millennia. Wiles.. of decadal or more duration that probably exceeded twentieth-century droughts in severity. K. Smol. Natural and anthropogenic changes in the period 2..” Willard et al. (2001) on the basis of a high-resolution Cumming.” data that they concluded. in the words of moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six the authors. and Payette. 2001) records from the eolian activity in north-central United States: evidence southeastern USA.. Hydrologic variation in the northern Great Plains southwestern USA ‘megadroughts’.Climate Change Reconsidered    (Fritz et al. R. J. Proceedings of the National Academy of Period’. Hoffmann.R.S.. 2001.E. 1997. Persistent millennial-scale shifts in next such dry period (~AD 800-1200). Laird. 2000.. S. go on to say that “mid-Atlantic dry periods generally correspond to central and Fritz. D. R. by Brush References (2001). J. The first. Willard et al. and cyclicity of Holocene and pollen (Willard et al. W.C.N. Science 294: 21302136.300 years BP to the present. timing.S. 1996a. Holocene “several dry periods ranging from decades to coastal glaciation of Alaska. The Salomon. Stahle and Cleaveland. D. S.” Rounding out our mini-review of the Medieval subject/n/northamericamwp. 2001. in which it is tree line peatland. Geology 25: 331-334. occurred during the latter part of the climate change in southern Alberta. 2001. consists of an analysis of sediment cores Arseneault. Z. A. Reconstruction of obtained from the Bay’s tributaries. including 14th centuries (the putative Medieval Warm Period) reviews of newer publications as they become may have been influenced by long-term solar available. 2003.” They further Hallett. can be found at http://www. K. G.P. 1996b) and compared so well with historical and proxy climate detrital clastic records (Dean.. 1994). Late Holocene lake sedimentology and BC-AD 300. and warmer temperatures during the 12th through Additional information on this topic. 1985..J. al... as delineated by McDermott et Research 49: 96-101. and those in the ‘Medieval climate in the mountain hemlock rain forests of Warm Period’ and between ~AD 50 and AD 350 southwestern British Columbia based on sedimentary charcoal. 1997. J. Ecology 78: 1873-1883. Human and investigation of fossil dinoflagellate cysts and pollen Ecological Risk Assessment 7: 1283-1296.R.P. records.. “corresponds to the ‘Medieval Warm millennia.. and speleothem ð18O record from southwest Ireland.. G.000 years of fire history and that lasted several decades.R. 1994) Dean.121. I. Kromer. Quaternary Research 53: Woodhouse and Overpeck (1998) as major droughts 175-184. Mathewes. Persistent solar influence on North followed by increases in wet indicators from about Atlantic climate during the Holocene. Bennett.. 2000. marshes and main millennial forest dynamics from tree remains in a subarctic stem that covers the past millennium.. D.R. Laird.K. and indicate that “droughts in the late sixteenth century Lertzman. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 33: 292spanning a century or more have been indicated by 312.W.. 2002. G. Great Plains tree-ring (Stahle et al. Warm Period in North America are two papers dealing with the climatic history of the Chesapeake Bay region of the United States. Evans. via an Chesapeake Bay during the last 1000 years. Quaternary Science Reviews centuries in duration are evident in Chesapeake Bay 20: 449-461. B. Rates. (2003) studied the same region for Brush. 11. G.E.. Lepofsky. Lotti-Bond.co2science. that “colder It is evident that the Medieval Warm Period has winter temperatures over the Northern Hemispheric left its mark throughout North America in the form of continents during portions of the 15th through the either warm temperature anomalies or periods of 17th centuries (sometimes called the Little Ice Age) relative dryness. Showers.. reported that “the Medieval Climatic Anomaly and the Little Ice Age are recorded in Chesapeake Bond. R. in their words. B.F..php. 2002. Hajdas. W..C..” The first of these periods of lower-thanaverage precipitation. which spanned the period 200 Campbell. Ito. sediments by terrestrial indicators of dry conditions M. Beer. average by tree-ring (Stahle and variations. Quaternary Roman Warm Period. Yu. C.J. for 200 years. lacustrine diatom and ostracode 90 . 800 to 400 years ago. P.” from varved lake sediments.117-16. and Barclay. Their efforts revealed that Calkin. D. Muscheler. from sediment cores. Canada. E. which has been documented as drier than Sciences USA 99: 16.

2001.A. D. which. In Peru. during the latter stages of the Roman Warm Period.” They note that “this interval compares well to the date range of AD 950-1045 based on Northern Hemisphere extratropical tree-ring data (Esper et al. L.400 years.” As a result of this climatic amelioration that marked the transition of the region from the Dark Ages Cold Period to the Medieval Warm Period. Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum. P. South America In Argentina. M.. Stahle.J. G. and humification associated with peat monoliths collected from the Valle de Andorra. and Holmes. K.Observations: Temperature Records    Laird.E. LateHolocene climate and ecosystem history from Chesapeake Bay sediment cores. D... 2000 years of drought variability in the Central United States. A 450-year drought reconstruction for Arkansas. B. under a relatively homogeneous climate. (2002) studied geochemical. and Overpeck. Cronin. Stahle.R. S. Shindell. Science 294: 2149-2152.S.R. Willard. C. during the Dark Ages Cold Period.W. P. (1998) derived a 4..C. This more benign period was then followed by another period of frequent flooding from 1300-1700 that was coincident with the Little Ice Age. a closed-basin lake in the northern Great Plains.. Tree-ring reconstructed rainfall over the southeastern U. C. and Hawkesworth. K. (2004) inferred similar changes in temperature and/or precipitation from plant macrofossils. as derived in the Northern Hemisphere). J..A.2. Laird.M. D. conditions there were primarily dry. 1994.P. with a slight respite in the central hundred years of that period. B. J. after which flooding picked up again after 1850.M. in their words. Rind.G. C.000-year climate history from a study of pollen in sediment cores obtained from a recently in-filled lake 91 . USA. Lake sediments record large-scale shifts in moisture regimes across the northern prairies of North America during the past two millennia. The Holocene 13: 201-214. “seems to correspond to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP. 1996a. and Hehr. M. Fritz. there was a high frequency of flood events. Widespread evidence of 1500 yr climate variability in North America during the past 14. Mauquoy et al. Chepstow-Lusty et al. Cumming.R. from AD 200-700.. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 100: 2483-2488. pollen.C. 2002. D. Grimm. D. A. 2003. R. highlighting a climatic “improvement” that began some 400 years before the start of the last millennium. which ultimately came to be characterized by “a marked increase of environmental suitability. United States.A. Gajewski. Mattey... Cleaveland.. Fines.. Subsequently. and Cumming.W. and diatom-assemblage data derived from sediment cores extracted from one of the largest natural lakes (Laguna Aculeo) in the central part of the country. fungal spores. A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79: 2693-2714. as suggested by Villalba (1994). Wunsam. S..R. and Cleaveland.K. and Mueller.T. M.E. McDermott.” where they remained until around AD 1320. Atkinson..G.W. Maasch..E. sedimentological..C. Greater drought intensity and frequency before AD 1200 in the Northern Great Plains. 3. Nature 384: 552554. Nature 316: 530-532.F. F. Climatic Change 26: 199-212. Down at the southern tip of the country in Tierra del Fuego.” and they conclude that this correspondence “shows that the MWP was possibly synchronous in both hemispheres. 1998. S. These new chronologies were compared with other chronologies of pertinent data from both the Southern and Northern Hemispheres in an analysis that indicated there was evidence for a period of warminginduced drier conditions from AD 960-1020. Fritz. 1996b. Mann. 2001. USA. S. Willard.. Weimer. Science 294: 1328-1331. M. Cioccale (1999) assembled what was known at the time about the climatic history of the central region of that country over the past 1. 2003. Fritz. 2002).A. when the record began. Viau. Geology 30: 455-458.C. D. climatic and anthropogenic impacts over the last two millennia. Limnology and Oceanography 41: 890-902. and Verardo. Laird.A. K. Cioccale says “the population located in the lower valleys ascended to higher areas in the Andes. and Waple. The Florida Everglades ecosystem. Woodhouse.8. D.A. Centennial-scale Holocene climate variability revealed by a high-resolution speleothem ð18O record from SW Ireland.C. 2001. when the transition to the stressful and extreme climate of the Little Ice Age began.000 yr.” In Chile.. Rusak.T. and Leavitt. E. during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age.F. testate amebae. until AD 200. K. K. and Sawada...K. From 200 BC. 1985. Bulletins of American Paleontology 361: 41-55. T. P. S.. J. Century-scale paleoclimatic reconstruction from Moon Lake. Jenny et al.A. D. Then came a several-hundred-year period of less flooding that was coeval with the Medieval Warm Period. Schmidt. Oglesby.

to use their words. where a deposits of El Niño mega-floods (Magillian and contemporaneous prolonged drought occurred in and Goldstein. As a result.” as they describe it. 800 have played a significant role in the collapse of the to 1250. Holocene from an analysis of the sediments in a 20Subsequent work in this area was conducted by meter core retrieved from a sheltered basin situated Chepstow-Lusty and Winfield (2000) and Chepstowon the edge of the Peruvian shelf about 80 km west of Lusty et al. and because El Niños are Peruvian Andes had held sway for a good portion of typically more prevalent and stronger during cooler as the millennium preceding AD 1000.Climate Change Reconsidered    Chepstow-Lusty et al. temporal agreement with the climatic history derived In harmony with these several findings are the by McDermott et al. the final sentence of their paper they suggest that “the Returning to the Medieval Warm Period and occurrence of a Medieval climatic anomaly (A.000 Lima. These characteristics of that climatic interval to the Dark Ages Cold Period. Chepstow-Lusty and Winfield researchers anomaly in the flux of lithic components from the identified what they describe as “the warm global continent onto the Peruvian shelf during the Medieval climatic interval frequently referred to as the period. 800 to 1250 suggests that this Peruvian Andes (Hansen et al. pollen records of Chepstow-Lusty et al. 1990). and the evidence of concomitant Peruvian glacial expansion significance of this observation was not lost on Rein (Wright. whereas the Esper et al. Their data the Little Ice Age.D.” In fact. who stalagmite recovered from a cave nearly half the derived a high-resolution flood record of the entire world away in Ireland. 1994) and by proxy period was truly a Medieval Warm Period. of course. Centered on approximately 1. which was. These investigators found a major Holocene years ago. 1997. Specifically. they state that “all known terrestrial Tiwanaku civilization further south. “the global Mann curve defined climatic epoch is also strikingly evident in the has no temperature optimum. 2001..” Most region is called the Roman Warm Period.. which in the maximum El Niño strength. Chepstow-Lusty and Winfield report in other high-resolution records throughout the ENSO that “temperatures were beginning to increase after a domain. a “more are also evident in ice cores retrieved from the optimum climate. Wells.” This extremely arid interval concentrations were very low for about 450 years in this part of South America.” In addition. because heavy winter rainfalls wetter interval was coeval with the Dark Ages Cold along and off coastal Peru occur only during times of Period of the North Atlantic region. the summit of temperatures and drier conditions. all data reveal the transition to the drier Current Warm of which climatic periods are in nearly perfect Period that occurred over the past 100-plus years. (2003). with warmer Quelccaya ice cap in southern Peru. activity at these altitudes. (2003) reveal the occurrence of in the Patacancha Valley near Marcacocha. they had gradually established itself between about AD report that “this precipitation anomaly also occurred 700 and 1000. proceeding towards the present. in aridity on both sides of it. both the 900. which date within the marine anomaly. 1984. Seltzer and Hastorf.D. et al. which in the Central Peruvian indicated a several-century decline in pollen content Andes was characterized by relative coolness and after AD 100. (2004). (2002) reconstruction shows northern hemisphere straddling the BC/AD calendar break with one to two temperatures almost as high as those of the 20th hundred years of relative warmth and significant century” during the Medieval period. as the Roman Warm Period gave way wetness.. This wellnotably. which was followed by the Little Ice Age. may during the Medieval climatic anomaly from A. they note that Preceding the Dark Ages Cold Period in both “discrepancies exist between the Mann curve and parts of the world was what in the North Atlantic alternative time series for the Medieval period. in their opinion.. the data of 92 . Finally. However. (2001) from a study of a related observations of Rein et al. the Medieval Warm Quelccaya ice core data and the Marcacocha pollen Period. medieval anomaly in our marine records and none of Abbott et al.D. the lack of strong cores extracted from yet other lakes in the Central El Niños from A. came into being which extends 5. (2003).” citing 11 other references in support of this sustained cold period that had precluded agricultural statement. the El Niño mega-floods known from the continent Near the start of this extended dry period. In the introduction to their paper. 1990) precede or follow the around the area of Lake Titicaca (Binford et al. 1988). they report that “lithic Medieval Warm Epoch.” This earlier colder and Consequently. as revealed by a opposed to warmer periods (see El Niño (Relationship series of climatic records developed from sediment to Global Warming) in Chapter 5). 1997). 1986.670 meters above mean sea level and prevailed for several centuries after about AD (Thompson et al.

6 and 11.’s data soon thereafter depict the development of the Medieval Warm Period. Mayan civilization had flourished. In an update of this study. In examining the titanium and iron concentrations of an ocean sediment core taken from the Cariaco Basin on the country’s northern shelf. Closer to the present. while during the warmth of the Holocene Optimum of 10. 93 . (2003) developed a hydrologic history of pertinent portions of the record that yielded “roughly bi-monthly resolution and clear resolution of the annual signal. “populations recovered. and Classic Maya civilization came to an end. according to the data of Haug et al. which was accompanied by a slow but long decline in precipitation. there came a time of reckoning. determined was the driest interval of the entire Dark Ages Cold Period.D. Haug et al. In conclusion. Haug et al.” lasting “only” between three and nine years..” which according to the climate history of McDermott et al. Although the drought was devastating to the Maya. the Little Ice Age produced the lowest precipitation regime (of several hundred years’ duration) of the last two millennia in that part of the world. However.4 thousand years ago. followed by drier conditions associated with the Little Ice Age between 550 and 200 years ago. when they report that “the Maya experienced a demographic disaster as profound as any other in human history.” In assessing the significance of these several observations near the end of their paper.” which is a polite way of suggesting that the Mann et al. 1999) hockey stick temperature history is deficient in not depicting the presence of a true Medieval Warm Period. corresponds to the latter portion of the Roman Warm Period (RWP). higher precipitation was also noted during the Medieval Warm Period from 1. cities were reoccupied. say that “many of the densely populated urban centers were abandoned permanently. This being the case.Observations: Temperature Records    800-1250) with persistently weak El Niños may therefore assist the interpretation of some of the regional discrepancies in thermal reconstructions of Medieval times. (2001) found a temperature/precipitation relationship that was different from that of the rest of the continent. Haug et al. This distinctive cold interval of the planet’s millennial-scale climatic oscillation also must have led to hard times for the people of Mesoamerica and northern tropical South America. which has exhibited a significant in-phase variation with global temperature change only over the Little Ice Age to Current Warm Period transition. which led to the ‘Pre-Classic abandonment’ (Webster. 2002) of major cities.D. report “they occurred during an extended period of reduced overall precipitation that may have already pushed the Maya system to the verge of collapse. report that “the first documented historical crisis hit the lowlands. During this Terminal Classic Collapse. Then comes the Little Ice Age. however. it should be clear that the climatic amelioration of the past century or more has had little or nothing to do with the concomitant rise in the air’s CO2 content but everything to do with the influential forcing factor that has governed the millennial-scale oscillation of earth’s climate as far back in time as we have been able to detect it.” Although some of these spectacular droughts were “brief. Haug et al. Haug et al. between about 750 and 950 A. Haug et al. during what Haug et al. Haug et al.5 thousand years ago. Haug et al. and Maya culture blossomed in the following centuries during the so-called Classic period. conclude that the latter droughts “were the most severe to affect this region in the first millennium A.D.D. titanium and iron concentrations remained at or near their highest values.5 to 5. suggesting wet conditions and an enhanced hydrologic cycle.” This crisis occurred during the first intense multiyear drought of the RWP-to-DACP transition. during the transition to the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP). report that when it was over. Although one can argue about the identity of that forcing factor and the means by which it exerts its influence. (1998. as it is called.7 thousand years ago.. when the Vikings established their historic settlement on Greenland. it is difficult to believe that the strong synchronicity of the century-long Northern Hemispheric and South American warm and cold periods described above was coincidental. In Venezuala.” Ultimately.05 to 0. It is much more realistic to believe it was the result of a millennial-scale oscillation of climate that is global in scope and driven by some regularly varying forcing factor. which was centered on about the year 250 A.” in response to a number of other intense multi-year droughts. which just as quickly led to the Vikings’ demise in that part of the world.” This record revealed that “before about 150 A.” Although the Mayan civilization thus faded away. one thing should be clear: It is not the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration. corresponding to a weakened hydrologic cycle with less precipitation and runoff. they determined that the concentrations of these elements were lower during the Younger Dryas cold period between 12..

2001. C. 2001.B.J. Ambio 29: 322-328.. B. and Geyh.K.C.R. 2002. and Wright Jr. and Hawkesworth. 2004.E. Pre-Incan agricultural activity recorded in dust layers in two tropical ice cores. R. 2000. and Herrera. G. Climate variation and the rise and fall of an Andean civilization. Frogley. 1999.. Kelts... J. Mosley-Thompson. and Goldstein. Hughen. A. El Niño floods and culture change: A late Holocene flood history for the Rio Moquegua. L.T. M.R. L.. Kolata. Villalba.. 1986. K.E.. F. Palaeogeography. Mauquoy. central Peru.P. 1994..A. M.H.M. R.. M. D.. 1998. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries.. Binford. E. F. W.E.S.. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences. Late Holocene climatic changes in Tierra del Fuego based on multiproxy analyses of peat deposits.. Davis. A. A major Holocene ENSO anomaly during the Medieval period. Kendall. Jenny. M. 2002. 2003. 94 Magillian. Quattrocchio.. Science 234: 361-364. H. H.. Thames and Hudson.1029/2004GL020161. M. Nature 392: 779-787. A. and Sirocko. Rein. F. L. Binford. D. Quaternary International 87: 3-18. Esper. Sigman. J. and Herrera. Mann. The Little Ice Age as recorded in the stratigraphy of the tropical Quelccaya ice cap. M. A.. Palaeoclimatology.T.. and Possnert. B.L.. and Aeschlimann.G. and Liu. Journal of Quaternary Science 18: 491-502.L. Quaternary Research 47: 169180. Urrutia. P. Nature 307: 763-765. 1997. 2004. Borromei. Haug. A.R. Inca agroforestry: Lessons from the past.. 2003. R. M. Peru. P. Tree-ring and glacial evidence for the Medieval Warm Epoch and the ‘Little Ice Age’ in southern South America. Brenner.000 years of environmental history in the Cuzco Area. 2001. southern Peru. M.K. and Hastorf.. D.S. Mattey..co2science. G. Valero-Garces. from the pollen record.H. and Curtis. Janusek. Cook. UK.E. 1988.S. Late glacial and Late Holocene moraines in the Cerros Cuchpanga. L. M. 2002.C. and Grootes. Holocene history of the El Niño phenomenon as recorded in flood sediments of northern coastal Peru. can be found at http://www. H. E. Bennett.A. D. Geology 29: 431-434. Late Quaternary vegetational change in the central Peruvian Andes. Science 294: 1328-1331. Fjeldsa. subject/s/southamericamwp. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. Bradley. Science 293: 1304-1308.M. 1990. and Winfield. Chambers. Wells.. F.B. Webster... Peterson.. Cioccale.M.. A. M.H.. Palaeoecology 109: 263-285. B. and Schweingruber. 1990.S... R.S. Seltzer.. Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization. J. 1999. M.-B. Sigman. Climatic fluctuations in the Central Region of Argentina in the last 1000 years. D.. Bauer. Mountain Research and Development 18: 159-172. 1998.E. Blaauw. A. P. Peru. Lowfrequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability.M. E. van Geel.. and Hughes... Wright Jr. .. Hughen. London. U. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. The Fall of the Ancient Maya. Quaternary Research 47: 235-248..W. M.. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. Thompson. and limitations.W. B.. J. Peterson. uncertainties. Bush. M. A 3500 14C yr high resolution record of water-level changes in Lake Titicaca. Thompson.G. K. M.W.. F. B.. Haug. Brenner. Chepstow-Lusty. Seddon. B. K. G. M. M.D. Tracing 4. Moisture changes and fluctuations of the Westerlies in Mediterranean Central Chile during the last 2000 years: The Laguna Aculeo record (33°50’S). References Abbott. G.H.. Hansen. Southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone through the Holocene.A.J. and Kelts. 1984. A late Holocene record of arid events from the Cuzco region. Science 299: 1731-1735. D.C.T. Journal of Field Archaeology 17: 397-414.php. M. 1994. Science 295: 2250-2253. and Hughes. Seltzer. Mosley-Thompson.G. 1997. K. Mann. K. K. M. B. Quaternary International 62: 35-47. Dansgaard. and Rohl. Quaternary Research 61: 148-158. G. A.. Climatic Change 26: 183-197. Quaternary Research 21: 275-285. Abbott. Geology 18: 1134-1137. Chepstow-Lusty. Veit. McDermott. A. C. Centennial-scale Holocene climate variability revealed by a high-resolution speleothem δ18O record from SW Ireland.O.E. Galiano. M. Chepstow-Lusty. Climatic change and its effect on Prehispanic agriculture in the central Peruvian Andes. Luckge. L. W. Gunther.Climate Change Reconsidered    Additional information on this topic. Appleby.

006° C per decade over land and zero over the oceans) on these [observed temperature] values” (p.” They conclude that “the observed surface temperature changes might be a result of local surface heating processes and not related to radiative greenhouse gas forcing. The IPCC dismisses this concern. 3. “suggest a hitherto-overlooked driver of local surface temperature increases. (2001) describe UHI-induced temperature perversions as one of three types of systematic error in the surface air temperature record whose magnitude “cannot be assessed at present.” since the temperature measurements that comprise that data base “are often conducted in the vicinity of human (industrial) activity. suggesting that the effect of urbanization on estimates of global-scale signals should be small. The two scientists report that “measurements of surface and lower tropospheric temperature change give a very different picture from climate model predictions and show strong observational evidence that the degree of industrialization is correlated with surface temperature increases as well as lower tropospheric temperature changes. it is essential that urban heat island (UHI) effects be removed from all original temperature records when attempting to accurately assess what has truly happened in the natural non-urban environment. M..” A similar study was conducted by McKitrick and Michaels (2004). in their words. they find that the surface and lower tropospheric warming trends of all industrial regions are greater than the mean warming trend of the earth’s non-industrial regions. who calculated 1979-2000 linear trends of monthly mean near-surface air temperature for 218 stations in 93 countries. Gallo et al. after which they regressed the results against 95 . p. UK. Marquis.. Z. Averyt. the IPCC is simply wrong. 2007-I. M.” This statement is patently false. Global Hegerl et al. after which they plotted the 1979-2001 temperature trends (°C/decade) of the different sectors using data from both the surface and the lower and middle troposphere. 2007-I. S. References IPCC. (Eds. which reveals the spatial distribution of various levels of industrial activity over the planet as quantified by the intensity of anthropogenic CO2 emissions to divide the surface of the earth into non-industrial and industrial sectors of various intensity levels. Manning.) Cambridge University Press. which is linked to the degree of industrialization” and “lends strong support to other indications that surface processes (possibly changes in land-use or the urban heat effect) are crucial players in observed surface temperature changes (Kalnay and Cai. In discussing the implications of their findings.3. may have been a full order of magnitude greater.Observations: Temperature Records  3. 1999). D. 237). De Laat and Maurellis say “areas with larger temperature trends (corresponding to higher CO2 emissions) cover a considerable part of the globe. as the rest of this section demonstrates.” which implies that “the ‘real’ global mean surface temperature trend is very likely to be considerably smaller than the temperature trend in the CRU [Hadley Center/Climate Research Unit] data. saying the UHI is “an order of magnitude smaller than decadal and longer time-scale trends” (p. M. Cambridge. On this extremely important matter.” Nevertheless. Solomon.18°C (IPCC.1.74°C ± 0. on the other hand. 5). Since nearly all near-surface air temperature records of this period have been obtained from sensors located in population centers that have experienced significant growth.” Specifically. K. and have a negligible influence (less than 0. Urban Heat Islands How accurate are the surface temperature records cited by the IPCC as showing unprecedented millennial warmth over the past couple decades? The IPCC considers them very accurate and nearly free of any contaminating influence. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.B. Warming in many growing cities. they go on to do just that.L.3. Miller. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.   De Laat and Maurellis (2004) used a global dataset developed by Van Aardenne et al. 244) and “UHI effects are real but local. Qin. (2001). 1996. claiming “it has been estimated that temperature trends over rural stations only are very similar to trends using all station data. Tignor and H. 2003. yielding a 1905-2005 increase of 0.” These observations. and that the difference in warming rate between the two types of land use grows ever larger as the degree of industrialization increases. based upon data they obtained from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS). Chen.

they had to indicators of local economic activity—such as conclude that “modes of variability that affect surface income. A second important reason comes opportunity for large errors to occur in thermometerfrom the realization that it would be extremely easy derived surface air temperature histories of the for a spurious warming of 0. there was an urban heat island effect of 2° between the satellite and radiosonde temperature to 2. which has been driven by significant warming bias introduced by insufficient the upward-inclined trend in surface-derived corrections for the non-greenhouse-gas-induced urban temperatures and the nearly level trend in satelliteheat island effect. the reason why no that of Oke (1973). Furthermore. Over the population range studied.000 people. data to isolate such a pattern has also failed. who measured the urban heat meteorological or climatic explanation could be found island strength of 10 settlements in the St. observed lapse rate trend by modes of climate The two scientists report that the spatial pattern of variability with structured patterns from observations trends they derived from the GISS data was have failed. one would logically want to determine some in Europe.e. consequence of the worldwide intensification of the That this urban heat island-induced error has urban heat island effect that was likely driven by the indeed corrupted data bases that are claimed to be world population increase that occurred in most of the immune from it is suggested by the work of Hegerl places where surface air temperature measurements and Wallace (2000). which warming is more than twice as great trends. i. variability could account for all or part of the It appears almost certain that surface-based observed trend in surface-troposphere temperature temperature histories of the globe contain a differential.e. they had to acknowledge that “all repeated the process using the gridded surface air attempts to explain all or a significant part of the temperature data of the IPCC.” These “socioeconomic effects. was linearly correlated with the logarithm of Although this task may seem daunting. “add up to a net warming ultimately concluded that “there remains a gap in our bias. One reason why is the good lowest population value encountered. they say “very similar correlations appear. which of the records is likely to be erroneous and then Oke found that the magnitude of the urban heat island assess the consequences of that determination. who attempted to determine if were made over the last two decades of the twentieth trends in recognizable atmospheric modes of century. or stratospheric ozone depletion alone. it may well be next to derived tropospheric temperatures over the last two impossible to make proper corrections for this decades of the twentieth century.000 to 2.” in the words compelling explanation. and that error is probably best introduced into the surface air temperature trend as a described as a large and growing warming bias.5°C.” and that “no mechanism with clear spatial socioeconomic factors affecting the supposedly or time structure can be found that accounts for that “pristine as possible” temperature data. such as might be data. the two scientists of McKitrick and Michaels. After doing 96 . gross domestic product growth rates. Then.000. lapse rate. caused by volcanic eruptions.” Hence.” Nor including economic activity and sociopolitical could they find any evidence “that interdecadal characteristics. since this comparison believed to have occurred since the end of the Little essentially amounts to an in situ validation of the Ice Age. and temperature cannot explain trends in the observed coal use—to see if there was any evidence of these lapse rate. after the past 20-plus years may be that one of the which he compared his results with those obtained for temperature records is incorrect.. which leaves little reason for doubting the as the increase in mean global air temperature veracity of the satellite results.Climate Change Reconsidered    everything they could conceive of doing.” Likewise. this relationship indicated that at the that difficult.” although they say “precise estimation of its fundamental understanding of the processes that magnitude will require further work. they trend. with respect to the IPCC variations in radiative forcing.and satellite-derived temperature trends of from approximately 1.. as well as possibility.12°C per decade to be twentieth century. It should be abundantly clear there is ample satellite record.” In addition. offer a effects. such as On the other hand.” “socioeconomic effect” in some past work.” cause the lapse rate to vary on interdecadal We can get a good feel for the magnitude of the timescales. it is really not population. variations in solar despite previous attempts to remove non-climatic output. Lawrence for the ever-increasing difference between the Lowlands of Canada that had populations ranging surface. i.” and that “an approach applying model “significantly correlated with non-climatic factors. Faced with this a number of other cities in North America. 1.000 correspondence Hegerl and Wallace found to exist inhabitants.

they report that air temperature trends at the tide gauge sites. Hegerl.2. as the urban heat island of even small towns dwarfs any concomitant augmented greenhouse effect that may be present.” and that the mean rural temperature measured during the second interval was “virtually identical to the earlier interval. In another different type of study. North America In studying the urban heat island (UHI) of Houston.C. Coast and Geodetic Survey. D. A. Temperature trends of the historical climatologic network based on satellite-designated land use/land cover. and Barnett.A. 2002. Easterling. for in just 12 years the UHI of Houston grew by more than the IPCC contends the mean surface air temperature of the planet rose over the entire past century. they determined that as residential development progressively occurred on what originally were rural watersheds.” and that “with the increase in maritime traffic and discharge of wastewater one would expect water temperatures to rise” (due to a maritime analogue of the urban heat island effect).74°C. 2001. Journal of Climate 9: 29412944. Olivier. Streutker (2003) analyzed 82 sets of nighttime radiation data obtained from the split-window infrared channels of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer on board the NOAA-9 satellite during March 1985 through February 1987 and from 125 sets of similar data obtained from the NOAA-14 satellite during July 1999 through June 2001. K. they 97 .” This informative study demonstrates that the UHI phenomenon can sometimes be very powerful. IPCC.P. D.T. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.6°C. and Peterson. J. R. and Jameson. 2003.Observations: Temperature Records    deficiency. Nature 423: 528-531.C. watershed evaporation decreased and sensible heating of the atmosphere increased. “scales roughly with the increase in population. A test of corrections for extraneous signals in gridded surface temperature data. Jones. In addition. 2004.P.S. Climate Research 26: 159-173. with Boston registering a 100-year warming of 3.G.J. P.J. City size and the urban heat island. T. Kalnay. 1996. G. Klein Goldewijk. G. Journal of Climate 12: 1344-1348. P.C. The influence of land use/land cover on climatological values of the diurnal temperature range.. C. and Wallace.. and Lelieveld. A very different type of study was conducted by Maul and Davis (2001).82 ± 0. T. were “much larger” than the seawater temperature trends. 2004.P. Noting that each of these sites “experienced significant population growth in the last 100 years. 2001. and Cai.1029/2003GL019024. 2007.W. or nearly an order of magnitude more than the 30 percent population growth experienced by Houston over the 12 years of Streutker’s study. who analyzed air and seawater temperature data obtained over the past century at the sites of several primary tide gauges maintained by the U. and Maurellis. Between these two periods. both in magnitude and spatial extent.F. M. Streutker notes that the growth of the Houston UHI. 1973. J.G. A. McKitrick.M. Dow and DeWalle (2000) analyzed trends in annual evaporation and Bowen ratio measurements on 51 eastern U. A 1° x 1° resolution dataset of historical anthropogenic trace gas emissions for the period 1890-1990. Journal of Climate 14: 198207. In doing so. In addition. Easterling.10 °C. Oke. which represent the standard urban heat island effect.N. Dentener...M.D. J. Gallo. Journal of Climate 15: 2412-2428. Impact of urbanization and land use change on climate. Industrial CO2 emissions as a proxy for anthropogenic influence on lower tropospheric temperature trends.R. Owen. and Michaels. during which period earth’s population rose by approximately 280 percent.R. 3.S.J. it was found that the mean nighttime surface temperature of Houston rose by 0. they calculated trends for the 14 longest records and derived a mean century-long seawater warming of 0. Atmospheric Environment 7: 769-779. Influence of patterns of climate variability on the difference between satellite and surface temperature trends.. Texas.. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. E. 1999. T. T..R. Gallo. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.3.J. P. References De Laat. K. Cambridge University Press. watersheds that had experienced various degrees of urbanization between 1920 and 1990. Hegerl. Van Aardenne. F. And from relationships derived from the suite of watersheds investigated. Effect of observational sampling error on the detection of anthropogenic climate change. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15: 909-928. J.

In fact. This work revealed that soil temperature in than 4600 in 2000”—the four researchers installed 54 the totally rural setting experienced an increase from temperature-recording instruments in mid-June of the decade of 1901-1910 to the decade of 1941-1950 2001. by Hinkel et al. exceedences per year for rural stations.09 with the very first hint of urbanization and. percentile across the United States over the period This powerful anthropogenic but non-greenhouse1960-1996. 95th.16 for may be readily overlooked in studies seeking to suburban stations.2°C less than the 0. Historical Climatology resulted in a 31 percent decrease in watershed Network. forcing.” He further 13°C in near-surface air temperature over the central notes—in a grand understatement—that “this could portion of the watershed. all of which are located a nominal 4 W/m2 increase in the radiative forcing of in communities that had populations of less than earth’s surface-troposphere system. Historical Climatology Network to calculate transformation could increase the near-surface air trends in the occurrence of maximum and minimum temperature by as much as a quarter of a degree temperatures greater than the 90th. 0. Likewise. the slope of the regression line fit to the balance of watersheds and the temperature of the data of a plot of the annual number of 95th percentile boundary-layer air above them begins to express itself exceedences vs.3°C.57°C warming derived from data obtained at the increase in the mean near-surface air temperature of three benchmark stations closest to the site of the soil the globe.S. warming determined for this time period by 11 Climate modeling exercises suggest that a benchmark stations in Illinois with the highest quality doubling of the air’s CO2 concentration will result in long-term temperature data. half of them within the urban area and the other that amounted to 0. which is supposedly corrected for urban evaporation and a 13 W/m2 increase in sensible heating effects.000 people as of 1990. rate of increase in the annual number of daily A case in point is provided by the study of maximum temperature 95th percentile exceedences Changnon (1999). contemporary set of air temperature measurements Working on the Arctic Coastal Plain near the made in an adjacent growing community (as well as Chuckchi Sea at Barrow. And it is 0. It is also 0. year was found to be 0. to a first approximation. which has often 6. (2003) as “the northernmost to evaluate the magnitude of unsuspected heat island settlement in the USA and the largest native effects that may be present in small towns and cities community in the Arctic. who used a series of measurements per year over the same time period was found to be 50 of soil temperatures obtained in a totally rural setting percent greater at urban stations than it was at rural in central Illinois between 1889 and 1952 and a stations.Climate Change Reconsidered    This warming is 0. In the case of daily warm minimum gas-induced effect of urbanization on the energy temperatures. which is consistent with be significant because the IPCC (1995) indicated that maximum urban heat island effects observed in large the global mean temperature increased 0.3°C from and densely populated cities.4°C. the be devoid of all human influence. and 99th Centigrade.S. the 13 W/m2 Changnon says his findings suggest that “both increase in the sensible heating of the near-surface sets of surface air temperature data for Illinois atmosphere produced by the total urbanization of a believed to have the best data quality with little or no pristine rural watershed in the eastern United States urban effects may contain urban influences causing could be expected to produce an increase of about increases of 0.17°C less than been predicted to produce an approximate 4°C the 0.000 people.6°C heating of the atmosphere. 98 . Hence. the fledgling urban heat island effect temperatures at urban stations nearly three times may already be present in many temperature records greater than the rate of increase at rural stations less that have routinely been considered “rural enough” to affected by growing urban heat islands.2°C less than the 0. making identify a greenhouse-gas-induced global warming the rate of increase in extreme warm minimum signal. indicative of an order-of-magnitude climate temperature measurements and with populations of sensitivity of 1°C per W/m2 change in radiative less than 2.6°C calculated that complete transformation from 100 warming determined for the same time period from percent rural to 100 percent urban characteristics the entire dataset of the U. and a mere 2 percent U. a 10 percent 1890 to 1950.2°C from 1901 to 1950.26 for urban stations. hence. Thus. Alaska—which is described similar data obtained from other nearby small towns).” rural-to-urban transformation could well produce a DeGaetano and Allen (2002b) used data from the warming on the order of 1. and 0.” the population of which that are typically assumed to be free of urban-induced “has grown from about 300 residents in 1900 to more warming.

respectively.Observations: Temperature Records  half distributed across approximately 150 km of surrounding land. relative to the rural site. increasing 60 and 115% for the suburban and urban sites. Hinkel and Nelson (2007) reported that for the period 1 December to 31 March of four consecutive winters. At each of these locations. four 2 x 2 m plots were excavated to a depth of about 1. report that along the rural-tosuburban-to-urban transect.” In addition.7°C) sites.6°C) and rural (12.2°C in the winter. Ziska et al. in their words. all of which provided air temperature data at hourly intervals approximately two meters above the surface of the ground.5 km from the city center). George et al. therefore providing an environment suitable for studying future effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.3°C in maximum (daytime) and minimum (nighttime) daily temperatures. they determined that “productivity. where they characterized the gradual changes that occur in a number of environmental variables as one moves from a rural location (a farm approximately 50 km from the city center) to a suburban location (a park approximately 10 km from the city center) to an urban location (the Baltimore Science Center 2   approximately 0.” and that “air temperature was also consistently and significantly higher at the urban site (14. the spatially averaged temperature of the urban area of Barrow was about 2°C warmer than that of the rural area. by inference. we find Ziska et al. Based on urban-rural spatial averages for the entire winter period (December 2001-March 2002). Moving south. the mean daily urban-rural temperature difference increased with decreasing temperature. when the presence of a mere 4. In this paper.” The three researchers say their results suggest that “urban environments may act as a reasonable surrogate for investigating future climatic change in vegetative communities.2°C warmer than the rural area. the urban-rural temperature difference was observed to achieve hourly magnitudes exceeding 9°C. Maryland. the only consistent differences in the environmental variables they measured were a rural-to-urban increase of 21 percent in average daytime atmospheric CO2 concentration and increases of 1. after which all of them were cut at ground level. there is no way that temperature measurements made within the range of influence of even a small village can be adjusted to the degree of accuracy that is required to reveal the true magnitude of the pristine rural temperature change. are “consistent with most short-term (~50 year) global change scenarios regarding CO2 concentration and air temperature.1 m. and that it was not uncommon for the daily magnitude of the urban heat island to exceed 4°C. In fact.500 people can create a winter heat island that may be two orders of magnitude greater than the signal being sought.1°C per decade). (2004) working within and around Baltimore. Three years later. probably those of many other areas as well. they determined the urban area to be 2. and maximum plant height were positively affected by daytime and soil temperatures as well as enhanced CO2. such that under calm conditions (< 2 m s-1) the daily urban-rural temperature difference was 3. removed.6 and 3. after which they were filled with identical soils. they say that on some days the magnitude of the urban heat island exceeded 6°C. the top layers of which contained seeds of naturally occurring plants of the area. Last of all. determined as final above-ground biomass. and that values in excess of 8°C were sometimes recorded. These seeds sprouted in the spring of the year. under simultaneous calm and cold conditions. dried and weighed. which changes.” and those results indicate that rising air temperatures and CO2 concentrations tend to produce dramatic increases in the productivity of the natural ecosystems typical of the greater Baltimore area and. (2007) reported on five years of work at the same three transect locations.” And they again noted that the increases in atmospheric CO2 and air temperature they observed “are similar to changes predicted in the short term with global climate change. they describe the results they obtained for the following winter. and the plants they produced were allowed to grow until they senesced in the fall. respectively.” These results indicate just how difficult it is to measure a background global temperature increase that is believed to have been less than 1°C over the past century (representing a warming of less than 0. stating that “atmospheric CO2 was consistently and significantly increased on average by 66 ppm from the rural to the urban site over the five years of the study.” specifically noting that “urban areas are currently experiencing elevated atmospheric CO2 and 99 . Four years later. “reaching a peak value of around 6°C in JanuaryFebruary. Clearly.8°C) compared to the suburban (13.” It was also determined that the daily urban-rural temperature difference increased with decreasing wind speed. During this period. while noting that the warmest individual site temperatures were “consistently observed in the urban core area.

they report that (2005) describe the results of their research into this predicted LCLU changes between now and 2050 will topic. pattern over land. their Noting that “breezy cities on small tropical work revealed “the existence of an urban heat island islands .” Indeed. then the small increases seen in rural level within four different LCLU types (urbanstations can be an estimate of this general warming coastal. lead to an urban heat island effect “as high as 8°C for Puerto Rico.” In addition. 1998.” Learjet—carrying the Airborne Thermal and Land Noting that a mass population migration from Applications Sensor (ATLAS) that operates in visual rural Mexico into medium. (2007) urban heat island with “the peak of the high report that “when speculating on how global warming temperature dome exactly over the commercial area would impact the state [of California].” and they say that “trends those caused by changes in atmospheric composition. expected in the future as coastal cities become more In pursuing this protocol. analyzing plus other nearby areas. the three researchers populated. One year later.Climate Change Reconsidered    work revealed that surface temperature differences temperature levels that can significantly affect plant between urbanized areas and limited vegetated areas growth compared to rural areas. which they conducted in and about San Juan. while contributing to the infamous “hockey stick” rural. they [air] temperature of the city has revealed that the local calculated temperature trends over the 50-year period temperature has been increasing over the neighboring 1950-2000 to explore the extent of warming in vegetated areas at a rate of 0. they report that the Northeast highly touted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Interior Basins of the state actually experienced Climate Change.06°C per year seen in large continental cities. rural areas. Jáuregui (2005) examined the effect of this area. while strategically placed ground seven large cities with populations in excess of a instruments recorded local air temperatures. and over and land use (LCLU) changes in San Juan.” upon their data of the past 40 years..” attempted to evaluate the influence of human-induced In discussing their findings. (2006) exhibited rates of warming “over twice those for the evaluated the thermal impacts of historical land cover state. Velazquez-Lozada et al. Large urban sites. after which they past 30 years. 2004). climate change of downtown. over the San Juan metropolitan century.. creating an Working further south still. Gonzalez et al.and large-sized cities took and infrared wavebands—flew several flight lines. for the last 40 years.. Leung et al. similar to those reported in [their] article may be such as the air’s CO2 concentration. LaDochy et al. “must then be due to local or anticipated LCLU changes and a model predicated regional surface changes.” which implies that “larger after which they estimated what the strength of the increases.” In fact.” and that “areas of intensive surface air temperature record of the planet and urbanization showed the largest positive trends. the eleven researchers report Hayhoe et al.” such as those they observed in areas of urban heat island might be in the year 2050. Puerto Rico climate change effects and urban heat island effects that has been increasing at a rate of 0. place throughout the second half of the twentieth both day and night.” were higher than 3°C during daytime. helping to erroneously inflate the maximum temperatures.” Feeling a that “a recent climatological analysis of the surface need to assess the validity of this assumption. Puerto five times the state’s mean rate for the minimum Rico over the last four decades of the twentieth temperature. obtaining surface the 1950-1990 minimum air temperature series of temperatures. on the other hand. In addition.. rural-coastal and urban-inland). state changes to the landscape on the observed temperature that “the urban heat island dominates the sea breeze trends and determine their significance compared to effects in downtown areas. non-agricultural regions showed the least representation of this parameter that has been so warming.06°C per year for the various sub-regions of the state. cooling.” where noontime air temperatures were models and assessments often assume that the as much as 3°C greater than those of surrounding influence would be uniform (Hansen et al.” Consequently. a NASA the year 2050. they concluded that “if century via an analysis of air temperatures measured we assume that global warming affects all regions of at a height of approximately two meters above ground the state. based on intensive urbanization..” Gonzalez et al. rapid urbanization on city air temperatures. In doing so. the El Yunque National Forest east of San Juan. This 100 . rural-inland. it is probable that this found that “most regions showed a stronger increase phenomenon has long been operative in coastal cities in minimum temperatures than with mean and around the world. may not be exempt from the same local in the tropical coastal city of San Juan. In this particular study. for the mean maximum temperature. 2004.

in research too new to have appeared yet in a peer-reviewed journal. Watts recruited a team of more than 650 volunteers to visually inspect the temperature stations used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to measure changes in temperatures in the U.” Watts also discovered that failure to adequately account for changes in the technology used by temperature stations over time—including moving from whitewash to latex paint and from mercury thermostats to digital technology—“have further contaminated the data.12°C at the time of maximum CO2-induced warming potential. the average trend for the seven large cities was 0.” The results of these several North American studies demonstrate that the impact of population growth on the urban heat island effect is very real and can be very large. which “far from correcting the warming biases. ranging from 0. while the average trend for the seven mid-sized cities was 0. and humidity over Phoenix.000 people. Balling et al. We found stations surrounded by asphalt parking lots and located near roads. “using the same quality standards established by NOAA. Extensive research conducted since then by independent scientists has confirmed Oke’s finding.higher-than-actual temperatures. which is about an order of magnitude less than the urban heat island effect of cities the size of Phoenix. and far above. returning from a central-city surface value on the order of 600 ppm to a normal non-urban background value of approximately 378 ppm at an air pressure of 800 hPa.74°C per decade. Meteorologist Anthony Watts (2009). where the process of waste digestion causes temperatures to be higher than in surrounding areas. These exercises revealed that the CO2 concentration of the air over Phoenix dropped off rapidly with altitude. sidewalks. In fact. the top of the city’s urban CO2 dome during the times of its maximum manifestation.000 to 700. the authors concluded that the warming induced by the urban CO2 dome of Phoenix is possibly two orders of magnitude smaller than that produced by other sources of the city’s urban heat island. We found 68 stations located at wastewater treatment plants.02°C per decade to 0.37°C per decade. Oke (1973) demonstrated that towns with as few as a thousand inhabitants typically create a warming of the air within them that is more than twice as great as the increase in mean global air temperature believed to have occurred since the end of the Little Ice Age. and buildings that absorb and radiate heat.57°C per decade.Observations: Temperature Records    million people and seven medium-sized cities with populations ranging from 125. In the researcher’s words. actually compounded the measurement errors.” Watts is also extremely critical of adjustments to the raw data made by both NOAA and NASA. temperature. This work indicated that temperature trends were positive at all locations. the North 101 . these high values are not the result of a local CO2-enhanced greenhouse effect. Grouped by population. Many of them fall far short of that standard [italics in the original]. Jáuregui says they “suggest that the accelerated urbanization process in recent decades may have substantially contributed to the warming of the urban air observed in large cities in Mexico. creating a calculated surface warming of only 0. overshadowing the effects of natural temperature change. while the urban heat islands of the great metropolises of the world create warmings that rival those that occur between full-fledged ice ages and interglacials. causing them to report much. discovered compelling evidence that the temperature stations used to reconstruct the U. (2002) obtained vertical profiles of atmospheric CO2 concentration. This insight is not new: more than three decades ago. once again in the direction of falsely raising temperature readings.S. Does it contribute significantly to the urban heat island? In a study designed to answer this question. they found that 89 percent of the stations – nearly 9 of every 10 – fail to meet NOAA’s own siting requirements for stations with an expected reporting error of less than 1º C.” Watts goes on to report finding stations “located next to the exhaust fans of air conditioning units. In discussing these results.” One additional question that may arise in relation to this topic is the direct heating of near-surface air in towns and cities by the urban CO2 dome that occurs above them. Although the doings of man are indeed responsible for high urban air temperatures (which can sometimes rise 10°C or more above those of surrounding rural areas). Arizona from measurements made in association with once-daily aircraft flights conducted over a 14-day period in January 2000 that extended through. surface temperature are unreliable and systemically biased toward recording more warming over time. Due to extensive corruption of land-based temperature data from urban heat islands.S. They then employed a onedimensional infrared radiation simulation model to determine the thermal impact of the urban CO2 dome on the near-surface temperature of the city.

2007. Atmospheric Environment 41: 7654-7665. Climatic Change 62: 75-113. J. Sato. Puerto Rico. J. Dow. with Malta having the longest temperature record (1853-1991) and Latakia the shortest (1952-1991). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). R. D. Beirut. A. References Balling Jr. A. L.E. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature across an urban-rural transect. 2006. and DeWalle. L. Alexandria. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 3935-3937. J. George. and Ruedy. Does the urban CO2 dome of Phoenix. during winter: 2001-2005. N. J. and Goins. Qian. Washington.. and Latakia. J. nor was it evident at all of the stations. as well as a second warming in the 1970s. 2007.A. and Idso. Maul. D. there was an important warming around 1910 that began nearly simultaneously at all of the longer-record stations.A. climate change.M. Additional information on this topic. Hinkel. Vasquez. 2003. Atmosfera providing reliable data in support of the greenhouse 18: 249-252. can be found at http://www. E. Cerveny.J... 2004.A. R. Satellite-measured growth of the urban heat island of Houston. and Roads.. Frumhoff.. E..D. Remote Sensing of Environment 85: 282-289. pathways. S. Harmsen. IL: The Heartland Institute. C. Hinkel. and Davis. 1995.M.. C. 2005. 2009.H.A. R. 2007. Hayhoe. Velazquez-Lozada. L.H. 1998.. 2002. 2000.W. Bian.. 102 Leung. Alaska..3. and Allen. Climate Research 33: 159-169. Alaska. Field.H. Gonzalez.co2science. Ramirez.M. The period of analysis varied from station to station according to available data. theory of global warming. J.B.C. subject/u/uhinorthamerica. Trends in evaporation and Bowen ratio on urbanizing watersheds in eastern United States. 2001. F.. Cambridge University Press. Climate Change 1995. and Waide. Trends in twentiethcentury temperature extremes across the United States. B. A. Oecologia 139: 454-458. Streutker. A. 2002.R.427.. Parsiani. Tripoli. In addition.E. 1999..E.. Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the western United States. E. and Bell. EOS: Transactions. 3.3. J. Urban heat islands developing in coastal tropical cities.K. Y. DeGaetano. P. 2004.W.M. Arizona contribute to its heat island? Geophysical Research Letters 28: 4599-4601. G..R. and Quebedeaux.php. and impacts on California. and Nelson. F. in temperature trends.. Emissions. A rare long record of deep soil temperatures defines temporal temperature changes and an urban heat island. R. H.S.Climate Change Reconsidered    Jáuregui. Gonzalez. Recent reviews of newer publications as they become California climate variability: spatial and temporal patterns available.. Medina. Ziska. 2003.O. Comarazamy.. International Journal of Climatology 23: 1889-1905. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 101: 12. 1973. Characterization of an urban-rural CO2/temperature gradient and associated changes in initial plant productivity during secondary succession. Athens. J. Oke. R... C. W. continuous or of the same order” as the warming that began about 1910. Glascoe. Possible impact of urbanization on the American temperature record cannot be cited as thermal climate of some large cities in Mexico. X. U. One interpretation of this nonuniformity of temperature behavior in the 1970s is that it may have been the result of temporal . Cambridge.. Nelson.1029/2006JD007837. A.R. R. Jerusalem. Luvall. et al. Atmospheric Environment 7: 769-779. Water Resources Research 36: 1835-1843. Anthropogenic heat island at Barrow. Atmospheric Environment 40: 1731-1741. Changnon. J. Seawater temperature trends at USA tide gauge sites. A. Four of the cities exhibited overall warming trends and four of them cooling trends. R. American Geophysical Union 86: 397.R. Rickman. Climatic Change 42: 531-538. Bunce. 2004. City size and the urban heat island.C. Cayan. A commonsense climatic index: Is climate change noticeable? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 95: 4113-4120..E. but Hasanean reports that the latter warming was “not uniform. The Science of Climate Change. D..E. S. 2005. Hansen.. K.. Asia Hasanean (2001) investigated surface air temperature trends with data obtained from meteorological stations located in eight Eastern Mediterranean cities: Malta.. Klene.422-12.L. Picon. M.T. and Winter. K. K. Temperature Record Reliable? Chicago. Han. D. Williams. Amman. A. D.. W.C. Ziska. Journal of Climate 15: 3188-3205. including LaDochy.S. R. The urban heat island in winter at Barrow. T. Urban heat island effect analysis for San Juan. Journal of Geophysical Research 112: 10. Bunce.403. Texas. K.E. Is the U. and Patzert. J.

In addition. while a mere 0. This analysis revealed.” noting that “rural climatological normals should be used instead of the conventional normals to simulate ecosystem responses to climatic change. and that “urban growth biases are very serious in South Korea and must be taken into account when assessing the reliability of temperature trends.000.35°C for smaller urban stations to 0. they say “monthly averages of daily minimum. and mean temperature at 14 synoptic stations were prepared for 1951-1980 (past normal) and 1971-2000 (current normal) periods.000 km2) via a series of 103 . Shifting attention to China.4°C for the 10 stations.15°C at the two rural sites (indicative of regional background warming of 0. and one comprised of six “rural” stations with a mean 1995 population of 214.Observations: Temperature Records  differences in city urbanization histories that were accentuated about that time. they note that “estimates of the annual mean magnitude of urban bias range from 0.1°C increase was detected at   one of the two rural sites and a 0. (2004a).1°C decrease was detected at the other.. Also. To investigate this possibility. (2004a) report there was an “overlapping of the rapid urbanization-industrialization period with the global warming era.3°C increase was observed at the two rural sites. In terms of change over the 20 years that separated the two normal periods. Chung et al.” and that when plotted on a map.075°C per decade). (2004b) evaluated temperature changes at 10 urban and rural Korean stations over the period 1974-2002. because the urban area is still much smaller than natural and agricultural ecosystems in Korea.” In addition. while two (where populations actually decreased) were rural.000) over the period 19681999. annual mean daily minimum temperature increased by 0.7°C.6°C for the rural and seashore stations.” Hence. one being located inland and one on a remote island.55°C. they indicate that “none of the rural stations used for this study can represent a true non-urbanized environment.075°C per decade). corresponding results for urban areas of intermediate size defined a linear relationship that connected these two extreme results when plotted against the logarithm of population increase over the two-decade period. the change in the annual mean daily mean temperature was an increase of 0.4°C increase was observed at Seoul and a 0. for no net change in their aggregate mean value.. as in the study of Chung et al. Choi et al. Weng (2001) evaluated the effect of land cover changes on surface temperatures of the Zhujiang Delta (an area of slightly more than 17. maximum.” A third study of South Korea conducted by Chung et al.8 to 2. In the case of annual mean daily maximum temperature.000.275°C per decade (indicative of an urban-induced warming of 0. where population increase was greatest. while the change of annual mean daily mean temperature at Seoul was an increase of 0. Hence. “the remarkable industrialization and expansion . or 0. a 0. Chung et al. that the “temperatures of large urban stations exhibit higher urban bias than those of smaller urban stations and that the magnitude of urban bias has increased since the late 1980s.5°C for Seoul and 0. much (and in many cases most) of the warming experienced in the urban areas of Korea was the result of local urban influences that were not indicative of regional background warming.” Specifically. say it is “necessary to subtract the computed urbanization effect from the observed data at urban stations in order to prepare an intended nationwide climatic atlas. Chung et al. In a more direct study of the urban heat island effect that was conducted in South Korea.2°C per decade in addition to the regional background warming of 0.” after which “regression equations were used to determine potential effects of urbanization and to extract the net contribution of regional climate change to the apparent temperature change.” and that the background climatic trends from urbanized areas might therefore be contaminated by a growing urban heat island effect.830. correlate with the distribution of increases in temperature.” Twelve of these stations were growing urban sites of various size. report that in Seoul. They found “during the last 29 years.” while increases in mean January temperatures ranged from 0. (2003) compared the mean station temperatures of three groupings of cities (one comprised of four large urban stations with a mean 1995 population of 4. they state that “rapid industrialization of the Korean Peninsula occurred during the late 1970s and late 1980s. in their words. Chung et al. In light of the significantly intensifying urban heat island effect detected in their study. one comprised of six smaller urban stations with a mean 1995 population of 548. the increase in annual mean temperature was 1. which could have resulted in significantly different urban heat island trajectories at the several sites over the latter portions of their records. they correctly conclude that their results are underestimates of the true urban effect.” Consequently.” In a second study conducted in South Korea.50°C for large urban stations. (2004b) found that over the past several decades.

they practices and are now at levels that exceed the found that the surface.” as has also been reported global warming of the earth over the past century. livestock from satellites and balloons) to estimate the impact of numbers across the TP have increased more than land-use changes on surface warming. according to them. Peking University determined that the annual heating results in “more temporally homogeneous fields” that intensity due to energy consumption by human -2 provide “a better assessment of large-scale activities was approximately 25 Wm in the urban temperature variability across the plateau. 2003).” cannot be discounted. which main factor causing the intensity of the heat island in temperatures. 2003). while urban land area increased For the period January 1979 to December 1998. upon the eight scientists involved in the work derived an normalizing the surface radiant temperature for the “estimated warming of mean surface [air] temperature years 1989 and 1997.. the three scientists Simultaneously. In Frauenfeld et al.and reanalysis-derived air carrying capacity of the region (Du et al.S.. (2003) evaluated several a period of rapid urbanization and for a country with a characteristics of that city’s urban heat island. (2004) applied the 104 . Chen et al.” This approach. report that over the period 1958addition. they say that “no which is indicative of the fact that ongoing trends are evident in the ERA-40 data for the plateau intensification of even strong urban heat islands as a whole.” because their analysis “is from the winter season over In Shanghai. and other sources including some surface that in 1995 the Environment Research Center of observations. say “the Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA-40). they used image differencing to of 0. by close to the same percentage. while in the found that its strength increased in essentially linear second approach they used 2-meter temperatures from fashion from 1977 to 1997 by 1°C.16°C per decade.027°C for the continental U. In discussing this discrepancy.05°C/decade trend of 0. using an analyses of remotely sensed Landsat Thematic improved version of reanalysis that includes newer Mapper data. that “urban development the estimate of 0. resultant overgrazing. by nearly 50 percent.” They note. and a more 1997.Climate Change Reconsidered    same technique over southeast China. by Liu and Chen (2000).05°C per decade attributable to urbanization. much higher population density. for (based on atmospheric vertical soundings derived example. observed soil moisture forcing. however. based on analyses of to give higher values than those estimated in other monthly meteorological data from 1961 to 1997 at 16 locations and over longer periods. each year from 1958 through 2000. 2000. between 1989 and 1997 has given rise to an average (Kalnay and Cai. satellite retrievals. However. including indicated. that increase of 13.” noting reports. “are derived from Shanghai is associated with the increasing energy rawinsonde profiles. Then. Kalnay and Cai (2003) used suggest that “a potential explanation for the difference differences between trends in directly observed between reanalysis and station trends is the extensive surface air temperature and trends determined from local and regional land use change that has occurred the NCEP-NCAR 50-year Reanalysis (NNR) project across the TP over the last 50 years.” produce a radiant temperature change image that they which they say “is much larger than previous overlaid with images of urban expansion.” They note. 2004).” and they note effects. (2005) used that is one of the most flourishing urban areas in all of daily surface air temperature measurements from 161 China.01°C in surface radiant temperature. that “over the last 30 years. Over 200% due to inappropriate land management undisturbed rural areas of the United States. “time series based on aggregating all station intensification of Shanghai’s urban heat island is an data on the TP show a statistically significant positive order of magnitude greater than the 0. in Weng’s words. Frauenfeld et al. we expect our results including its likely cause.5°C/decade 2000.5 Wm-2 in its suburbs. Zeng et al. Defining the urban heat island of Shanghai as stations located throughout the Tibetan Plateau (TP) the mean annual air temperature difference between to calculate the region’s mean annual temperature for urban Longhua and suburban Songjiang. aircraft consumption due to economic development. “has caused land implying that differences between the two approaches degradation and desertification at an alarming rate over urban areas would represent urban heat island (Zhu and Li. the area of land devoted to agriculture declined accurate characterization of clouds. in their words.” stations in and around this hub of economic activity In a similar study. They found that between 1989 and physics. they point out that the 0. Consequently. The results estimates for other periods and locations. Chen et al. Zhou et al.” area of Shanghai but only 0. Chen et al.” The temperature data yielded essentially identical trends. the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Commenting on this finding. in their words.

including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Konnen. Zhang. Journal of Geophysical Research 110: 10. M. Chen. Choi. M.S. and Hughes. Zhang. Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate.-T. and Chen. H. Z. On climate variations and changes observed in South Korea.g. Brandsma et al. J. Climatic Change 40: 669-681. 2003. G. and Zhou. Mann et al.I. International Journal of Climatology 23: 577-591. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries.M. Mann.. 2001..W. Nam. X. 2003.. T. International Journal of Climatology 23: 829-845. R.-S. 1999)..” Another point they raise is that “urbanization. R. Empirical estimation of the effect of urban heat advection on the temperature series of DeBilt (the Netherlands).. and limitations. Kawashima.M. S. Adjusting urban bias in the regional mean surface temperature series of South Korea. 2004b. Yonemura.. Balling et al. 2003. Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades. and Jones. Impacts of land degradation on historical temperature records from the Sonoran desert.K. M..e. as in the case of the ERA-40 reanalysis results they present. P. 1998. Hildebrandt.. 1998. Additional information on this topic.php References Balling Jr. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 20: 991-1001.” In this regard. L.E.D. Brandsma. Zhou. M. Bradley. Jung. Kalnay. X. suggesting a 2400% increase in size over the last 50 years. Global and Planetary Change 41: 241-249. and Chen.. H. Mann. M. 1998). Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.L.” In concluding their analysis of the situation. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. and Serreze. Choi. 2005. U. has also occurred extensively on the TP.1029/2003GL017814. W. J. M.. C. uncertainties. Chung. contend that “these local changes are reflected in station temperature records. contributing to both urbanization and a changed landscape.-Y. 1999. 1968-99. Chung. H..P. and Kim. and Yun.-S.. 2003). J. 2001. Nature 423: 528-531.Observations: Temperature Records    that “in other parts of the world. 2000. and Cai. M.E.E.” noting that “construction of a gas pipeline in the 1970s and highway expansion projects in the early 1980s have resulted in a dramatic population influx from other parts of China. W. Du.. Climatic Change 66: 127-136. Urbanization effect on the observed change in mean monthly temperatures between 1951-1980 and 1971-2000. A remote sensing-GIS evaluation of urban expansion and its impact on surface temperature in the 105 . a large body of research conducted by scores of scientists working in countries around the world reveals that the twentieth century warming claimed by the IPCC... Y.” and that “even villages and small towns can exhibit a strong urban heat island effect. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences.co2science.-S.. which can result in 8°-11°C higher temperatures than in surrounding rural areas (e. Klopatek.. Characteristics of the heat island effect in Shanghai and its possible mechanism. Climatic Change 66: 151-161.A. Bradley.R.. 2004.C. land degradation due to overgrazing has been shown to cause significant local temperature increases (e.C. it is clear there has been no warming of the Tibetan Plateau since at least 1958. H. E.” We note that when the surface-generated anomalies are removed.1029/2004JD005230. Liu. M. and Wessels. Y. Mann. Climate change and variability using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA-40) temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau. (1998. Mutual influence between human activities and climate change in the Tibetan Plateau during recent years. Likewise.” And they add that “similar population increases have occurred at other locations across the TP.. Frauenfeld et al. and Watts. T. Yoon. Fluctuations of surface air temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean. M. X. the pre-1950 Lhasa) now only comprises 4% of the subject/u/uhiasia. 2003. and Mann and Jones (2003) to represent mean global background conditions is likely significantly biased towards warming over the past 30 years and is therefore not a true representation of earth’s recent thermal history. and Hughes.. K. Zhu. S.K. B. In conclusion. C. O. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 68: 75-87. Q.K. International Journal of Climatology 20: 1729-1742. we submit that the other results reported in this section imply much the same about other parts of China and greater Asia.. 2004a. 2003. and Kwon. R. they say that “the original Tibetan section of Lhasa (i.. S. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. Hasanean. Moritz. Weng. Frauenfeld. Nature 392: 779-787.S. can be found at http://www.J. M.

Similarly. since it depended entirely on a particular choice of time interval for the comparison (Michaels and Knappenberger. Tian.. The attempted match of warming trends with altitude turned out to be spurious.E. 15.K. New York. p. and Li. International Journal of Remote Sensing 22: 1999-2014. and [F] all forcings (U. Springer.4. 1996. northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. it would be consistent with such a conclusion.4. A mismatch would argue strongly against any significant contribution from greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and support the conclusion that the observed warming is mostly of natural origin. Natural hazards and environmental issues. p. Zeng. It compares the observed pattern of warming with a pattern calculated from greenhouse models. B.J. 1996. New York. Dickinson.. 1999.4. Climate models all predict that.) Mountain Genecology and Sustainable Development of the Tibetan Plateau. 2000.. IPCC. [D] volcanic aerosols. Evidence for a significant urbanization effect on climate in China. 1996) involved making changes on a published graph that could and did mislead readers (Singer. Climate Change Science Program 2006. 43-44). Kaufmann.. Y. J. it has become possible to apply the fingerprint method in a more realistic way.. 411). S. p. L. Tucker.B. p. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) in April 2006—making it readily available to the IPCC for its Fourth Assessment Report—and it permits the most realistic comparison of fingerprints (Karl et al. Mountain Research and Development 23: 353-361. G. While an agreement of such fingerprints cannot prove an anthropogenic origin for warming. 668) and many scientists believe the “fingerprint” method is the only reliable one. [C] stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. Q. Zhu. distribution of surface temperature trends (Santer et al. IPCC-SAR concluded that “the balance of evidence” supported AGW. an attempt to correlate the observed and calculated geographic 106 Figure 3. and Myneni. Feng. D. Singer. and Wu.S. Z. The fingerprint method was first attempted in the IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (SAR) (IPCCSAR.1. 203-222. Q. It is . Land cover change and its environmental impact in the upper reaches of the Yellow River. [E] solar irradiance. titled “Detection and Attribution. Six years later. Li.. The CCSP report is an outgrowth of an NAS report “Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change” issued in January 2000 (NAS. That NAS report compared surface and troposphere temperature trends and concluded they cannot be reconciled. 9. R. if GHG is driving climate change.. L. China. Zhang. 2004. especially from balloons and satellites. 2006).S. 2003. In: Zheng. This was done in a report issued by the U. and Cao. R. R.Climate Change Reconsidered    Zhujiang Delta. the region of the atmosphere up to about 15 kilometers. 2000). which the IPCC identified as the ‘fingerprint’ of greenhouse forcing.” attributed observed temperature changes to anthropogenic factors—greenhouse gases and aerosols. With the availability of higher-quality temperature data. only sustained greenhouse warming will do so. 22). Zhou. (Eds. 1996). C. 2000.1. and with improved GH models. Fang. Note the pronounced increase in warming trend with altitude in figures A and F.. Fingerprints Is there a method that can distinguish anthropogenic global warming from natural warming? The IPCC (IPCC-SAR. (See Figure 3. [B] sulfate aerosols (direct effects only). 411.. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 101: 9540-9544. pp. In spite of these shortcomings.) Climate changes due to solar variability or other known natural factors will not yield this pattern. p. Its Chapter 8. Model-calculated zonal mean atmospheric temperature change from 1890 to 1999 (degrees C per century) as simulated by climate models from [A] well-mixed greenhouse gases. Y. USA. pp. 3. the CCSP report expanded considerably on the NAS study. 2007-I. there will be a unique fingerprint in the form of a warming trend increasing with altitude in the tropical troposphere.

observed temperature trends versus latitude and altitude. the executive summary of the CCSP report presents the same information as Figure 3.3. the use of ‘range’ is clearly inappropriate (Douglass et al. See Figures 3. the data show mainly positive values for the difference in trends. Unfortunately. 2007) since it gives undue weight to ‘outliers.4G from CCSP 2006. 25. but rather a slight cooling with altitude in the tropical zone. surface trend less than troposphere trend) indicating that atmospheric warming will be greater than surface warming.4.4 and 3. It does not. By contrast. Greenhouse-model-predicted temperature trends versus latitude and altitude. The CCSP executive summary inexplicably claims agreement between observed and calculated patterns.5. Note the model results hardly overlap with the actual observed trends. p. 675). peaking around 10 km at roughly two times the surface value. in agreement also with the IPCC result (IPCC-AR4 2007.2 and 3. Notice the absence of increased temperature trends in the tropical mid-troposphere. 2001). Note the increased temperature trends in the tropical mid_troposphere.4 in terms of ‘range’ and shows a slight overlap between modeled and observed temperature trends (Figure 4G.7E from CCSP 2006.4. By contrast. The same information also can be expressed by plotting the difference between surface trend and troposphere trend for the models and for the data (Singer. the temperature data from balloons give the opposite result: no increasing warming. Figure 3. Figure 3.4. 116. p. While all greenhouse models show an increasing warming trend with altitude.4. this is figure 5. These trends are based on the analysis of radiosonde data by the Hadley Centre and are in good agreement with the corresponding U. this is figure 5.5. p.3.) Figure 3. essentially a specialized report addressing the most crucial issue in the global warming debate: Is current global warming anthropogenic or natural? The CCSP result is unequivocal. the data points show balloon and satellite trend values. 111.e. the opposite of what the report itself documents.4.4. the models show a histogram of negative values (i.3F from CCSP 2006.4.’  107 . many people do not read beyond the summary and have therefore been misled to believe the CCSP report supports anthropogenic warming. By contrast.Observations: Temperature Records    Figure 3.4. analyses. However.S.4. It tries to dismiss the obvious disagreement shown in the body of the report by suggesting there might be something wrong with both balloon and satellite data. (The apparent deviation of the RSS analysis of the satellite data is as yet unexplained. taken directly from the CCSP report.4.2. p. 13). demonstrating that measured warming is occurring principally on the surface and not in the atmosphere. As seen in Figure 3. The model results show a spread of values (histogram). this is figure 1. p. Another way of presenting the difference between temperature trends of surface and lower troposphere.

D.H. Cambridge University Press. Douglass. .. M. Figure 3. M. 2007). and a minor greenhouse-induced warming in the future. as seen in research papers by Douglass et al. 1999. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. as shown in Figure 3. D. M.R.1002/joc. C. then the greenhouse fingerprint would suggest the 108 . T. D. Human contribution to climate change remains questionable. Washington. Tignor and H. Chen. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. Miller. National Academy of Sciences. . and Knappenberger. DC.. The models show an increase in temperature trend with altitude but the observations show the opposite. Karl. Also.F. Cambridge. and Singer. (Eds. Reply. B. A report by the Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Miller. S. Michaels. Models show an increase in the warming trend with altitude. In that case.L. American Geophysical Union 80: 33. S.htm. 1996. S.) 2006.R. Human effect on global climate? Nature 384: 522-523. NAS 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Altitude dependence of atmospheric temperature trends: Climate models versus observations. D. which is mainly of natural origin. A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions.J.H. Z. and Murray. UK. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.. National Academy Press.. IPCC-SAR 1996. We must conclude therefore that anthropogenic greenhouse gases can contribute only in a minor way to the current report/default.F. Pearson. 186-187 and 372373. But “range” is not a robust statistical measure because it gives undue weight to “outlier” results (Figure 12b).D.6. Averyt. If robust probability distributions were used they would show an exceedingly low probability of any overlap of modeled and the observed temperature trends. Geophysical Research Letters 31. et al. and are consistent within their respective uncertainties. S. (Eds. International Journal of Climatology (Royal Meteorol Soc). 1996.4. largely reconciling a discrepancy noted in the TAR. B. Pearson. W. Qin. true surface trend should be only 30 to 50 percent of the observed balloon/satellite trends in the troposphere. Hassol. Manning. an insignificant AGW effect. P. 2007-I. 2004.Climate Change Reconsidered    The same information can be expressed in yet a different way. 5) distorts the key result of the CCSP report: “New analyses of balloon-borne and satellite measurements of lowerand mid-tropospheric temperature show warming rates that are similar to those of the surface temperature record. 2007].4. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon. p. http://www. and Singer. This mismatch of observed and calculated fingerprints clearly falsifies the hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Cambridge. Santer. B. P.. If one takes greenhouse model results seriously. EOS: Transactions.L.C.climatescience.) Cambridge University Press.B. DOI:10. J. Christy. UK. 2007. Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences.1651. Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate. The summary for policymakers of IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007-I. References Douglass. Marquis. Singer. but balloon and satellite observations do not. (2004. The IPCC seems to be aware of this contrary evidence but has tried to ignore it or wish it away. A more detailed view of the disparity of temperature trends is given in this plot of trends (in degrees C/decade) versus altitude in the tropics [Douglass et al.J.” How is this possible? It is done partly by using the concept of “range” instead of the statistical distribution shown in Figure 12a. one would end up with a much-reduced surface warming trend. S. K.D. Climate Dynamics 12: 79-100.F.

2003. This would be surprising. Kevin Trenberth. CA. Stanford. 2000. however. it seemed to contradict claims by some scientists at the time that a warming trend was underway.5 times more in the tropics. 2006). In 1997. New data for the UAH series is posted every month on a Web site maintained at the University of Alabama at Huntsville. over the accuracy of the satellite data. Published in Science in 1990 (Spencer and Christy. since we indicated in the previous section that the surface-based temperature record is unreliable and biased toward a spurious warming trend. 2001. Essays in Public Policy 102. Critics of the satellite data pointed to other possible and actual errors in the satellite record. Trenberth and Hurrell. S. American Meteorological Society. It triggered a long-running debate. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and later a lead author of the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report. as it also was found in independent balloon comparisons (Christy et al. 1997. 2007-I. Although the MSUs mounted on satellites sent into orbit by NASA for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) were not originally intended to be used to measure temperatures in the troposphere. 1990). 237). which continues to this day. and lower stratosphere (LS).” Although this finding covered too short a period of time to prove a trend. Singer. Four groups currently report MSU measurements: the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH).S. 1997. Many of the adjustments made by Christy and Spencer resulted in the satellite record 109 . In this endeavour. Santer et al.S. S. “the detection and measurement of small changes in the Earth’s climate require extremely precise global observations of a broad spectrum of complementary physical variables. and about 1.5.2 times more than the surface globally. satellites provide daily near-global coverage with a very high statistical precision that results from averaging millions of individual observations” (Wentz and Schabel. Trenberth argued that Spencer and Christy had failed to properly calibrate the sensors on each new satellite as older satellites were retired and new ones launched into orbit. Hurrell and Trenberth. One of the larger changes was made to correct for drift in local crossing time (i. Albuquerque. then with NASA and now the U.e. In this section we investigate the truth of the IPCC’s claim in this regard and report other findings based on satellite data. the article presented the first 10 years of satellite measurements of lower atmospheric temperature changes (from 1979 to 1988) and found “no obvious trend for the 10-year period.F. along with coauthors challenged the reliability of the satellite data (Trenberth. of the U. and a group from NOAA whose data series begins in 1987. 1998). and John Christy. RSS and UAH produce estimates of temperatures for the lower troposphere (LT).Observations: Temperature Records    Singer. UMd produces estimates only for MT (Christy and Norris. they have been used for this purpose since 1979 and. Satellite Data The IPCC claims that data collected by satellitemounted microwave sounding units (MSU) and advanced MSU measurements since 1979 reveal a warming trend of 0. 1997). 2007. 3. which it says “is broadly consistent with surface temperature trends” (IPCC. an error discovered by Mears and Wentz (2005) and subsequently corrected by Christy and Spencer (2005). based on a surface-satellite comparison. 1997). change in the time-of-day that the measures are taken). Spencer and Christy. Disparity of temperature trends of atmosphere and surface.. Climate policy—From Rio to Kyoto a political issue for 2000 and beyond. Stanford University.F. Hoover Institution. As compared to conventional in situ observations. distinguished professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. As Wentz and Schabel observed in an article in Nature in 1998. Most climate models predict that the troposphere should warm about 1.. the University of Maryland (UMd). despite some ongoing debate. satellite observations are playing an increasingly important role.12º C to 0. 2005). NM. and Spencer and Christy made two adjustments based on these external criticisms for such things as orbit decay and changes in technology. are acknowledged to be a reliable source of information about temperatures in the troposphere (Christy et al. Remote Sensing System (RSS) (a small private weather forecasting firm led by the previously cited Frank Wentz).. showed that the surface and tropospheric discrepancy was real. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite..19º C per decade. Paper presented at 12th Symposium on Global Climate Change. p. midtroposphere (MT). The first satellite record was produced by Roy Spencer.

a panel of the U. 2009).12º C. All temperatures in 2009 were no higher than when three surface temperature records used by the IPCC Hansen testified in 1988. real-world temperatures have failed to rise record for the periods 1850-2005.163º C/decade and overshot the observations. it is notable that Christy Science Program (CCSP) attempted to reconcile has been using the UAH database to detect and differences between satellite and surface-station data. and indeed. 1901-2005. England). percent higher than the UAH’s record of 0. compares the UAH and (especially in the important region of the tropics. To say this is “broadly consistent. in Norwich. higher estimate of 0.123 ºC between the IPCC does. 2009). The first is a 0. Figure 3. In light of the large 1979 and 2005. 2009). Recent research by Randall and which appears in the Summary for Policymakers (p.3. As Christy comments. discrepancy between satellite and surface records for In 2006. estimates of warming are between 33 percent and By 2008. The forecast if drastic GHG reductions were made.17º C/decade.096 ºC (NCDC). Table 3. and GISS (from happened. This feature has been found in comparison with 110 . the IPCC’s estimates are differences between the two datasets. This would be considered a 0. 0.1.5. 248).3 reaches the 0. “GISS-C 88” is Hansen’s temperature NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies). 2009) and the surface station (as the IPCC does) that “this significant discrepancy record in East Africa (Christy et al. show positive trends in global temperatures during the “Even the model projection for drastic CO2 cuts still 1979-2005 period (the period that can be checked against satellite data) of between 0. and as Hansen had predicted.” as showing a small warming trend of 0.092º C (CRU) and 0. NCDC (from the gas emissions would be similar to what actually has National Climatic Data Center).123º C/decade.S.2.19º C reliable suggests the RSS data incorporate an that the IPCC claimed to be the upper end of the improper handling of diurnal cycle effects that causes range of credible estimates.128º C/decade sits very close to the lowest estimate suggesting that the lower UAH estimate of of 0. 2006). or a very sudden warming in RSS relative to UAH in January large 84 percent and 92 percent higher than the 1992. global 1979-2005 (IPCC.5 appear in Figure 3. compared to the UAH record of failed hypothesis test for the models from 1988” only 0.234º C and showing the difference between the two data sets NCDC’s 0.1)” to three model projections of global the warming trend during the last three decades surface temperature presented by NASA’s James reported by the three combined land-surface air Hansen in Senate testimony in 1988 (Christy.174 ºC /decade. [between surface station records and satellite records] Satellite data also allow us to compare real-world no longer exists because errors in the satellite and temperatures to the predictions (or “scenarios”) radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. the IPCC’s temperature records for the Graphs showing both data sets and a third graph Northern Hemisphere are CRU’s 0. Fingerprints) remained temperature variations for an apples to apples unsolved (CCSP.177º C/decade (44 percent higher while the RSS data series showed a warming rate of than UAH) in a graph on page 253. The IPCC claims an even C/decade from January 1979 through December 2007. temperature and sea-surface temperature (SST) “GISS-A 88” and “GISS-B 88.” offered by those who have been predicting warming in fact significant differences in some values since the 1980s. p. Herman (2009) using data collected from a subset of 6). correct errors in the Australian radiosondes record While the executive summary of the report claimed (Christy and Norris. For Explanations exist for two of the biggest the Southern Hemisphere. a variation of 0. as RSS temperature records “adjusted to mimic surface discussed in Section 3. we note that none of the warming rates weather balloon observations thought to be most reported in the IPCC’s Table 3.2.245º C.05º C.20º C. is not accurate.14º C/decade may have been closer to correct. while the UAH record of a small warming bias over global land areas. the UAH data series indicated that 41. approximately 17 percent to 22.” at the top of the records used by the IPCC: CRU (from the Climate graph.5 percent more rapid than the most scientifically global temperatures in the lower atmosphere had accurate record we have of global temperatures warmed at the slightly higher rate of about 0.Climate Change Reconsidered    UAH’s 0. IPCC lists temperature trends (ºC /decade) for each Obviously.4.5. 2007-I. thus 0. are Hansen’s two “business-as-usual” model Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East projections of temperature which assumed greenhouse Anglia. Finally.. Climate Change the Southern Hemisphere. Similarly. Satellite data allow us to check the accuracy of CCSP SAP 1.14º during this 26-year period. This means the IPCC’s (Christy. comparison with the model projections (factor of 1.

the episodic nature of temperature changes during the 111 . This can be explained by the fact UAH uses a spacecraft (NASA’s Aqua) that is not subject to orbital drifting. Written testimony to House Ways and Means Committee..Observations: Temperature Records      Figure 3. Both data series show the rate of warming has slowed dramatically during the past seven to 12 years. 2007). 2009. 2009 every other surface and tropospheric temperature dataset. compared to predictions made by James Hansen to Congress in 1988. whereas RSS relies on NOAA-15. effectively returning the world to the temperatures that prevailed in the late 1980s and early 1990s. See Figure 3. Between the end of 2007 and early 2009. 25 February.1. Swanson and Anastasios (2009). The implication here is that RSS is overcorrecting for this spurious warming by reporting too much cooling. writing in Geophysical Research Letters.5. The second feature is the relative cooling of RSS vs.R.” Moreover. The graphs show that the temperature anomalies in the RSS dataset for November 2007 and December 2007 were below the 1979-1998 mean average for the first time since 2000. below. http://waysandmeans. adjusted to mimic surface UAH since 2006. Source: Christy. J. global temperature anomalies fell even further. and the mid-1970s (ending a cooling trend).5. similar to ones that occurred around 1910 (ending a cooling trend). the shifts unique to RSS create a spurious warming in the record. say “a break in the global mean temperature trend from the consistent warming over the 1976/77– 2001/02 period may have occurred. last accessed May 10. The new trend toward less warming has prompted some scientists to wonder if the world’s climate experienced a trend break in 2001-2002. which is drifting into warmer diurnal Actual temperature changes from UAH and RSS satellite data. indicating RSS contains a spurious warming shift at that time (Christy et al.3. Overall. the early 1940s (ending a warming trend). which is being slowly mitigated by the more recent spurious cooling.

Global temperature anomalies from the lower troposphere. January 1979 through December 2007. Graphs were produced by Patrick Michaels using UAH and RSS data and first appeared in World Climate Report on February 7.2. past century is “difficult to reconcile with the presumed smooth evolution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol radiative forcing with respect to time” and “suggests that an internal reorganization of the climate system may underlie such shifts.5. (bottom) difference between the two datasets (UAH minus RSS). a scientist with Germany’s Leibniz Institute of Marine Science.” 112 Noel Keenlyside.worldclimatereport.Climate Change Reconsidered    Figure 3. (middle) data compiled by Remote Sensing Systems. (top) Data compiled at the University of Alabama. 2008. said “the climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences” and “these multidecadal . http://www. writing with colleagues in a letter published in Nature.php/category/temperaturehistory/satelliteballoons/.com/index.

Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences.” We predict more predictions of this kind as more scientists recognize.R. Christy.pdf.drroyspencer.1. T. 2008). 2009. J...J.5. DC. Hassol. that recent temperature trends contradict past and recent forecasts by the IPCC and other prominent advocates of the theory that temperatures will steadily rise in response to increasing forcing by rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere. that estimates of past warming have been exaggerated by reliance on surface-station data that have been discredited by physical observation and by testing against superior satellite data. Using a database of sea-surface temperature (SST) observations. (Eds..R. the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade. 2006. 2009.R. Discontinuity issues with radiosondes and satellite temperatures in the Australia region 1979-2006. 25 February. as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming. 2009. Source: Roy Spencer. 2009. http://www. Karl. as most scientists have known all along are more influential than the small effects of rising CO2 in the atmosphere. Christy. as attention turns to natural cycles like those modeled by Keenlyside et al. W.1175/2008JTECHA1126. Washington. variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known” (Keenlyside et al. http://waysandmeans.L..) A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change J. J. 2006. and third. Miller. and Norris.   References CCSP. W. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 25: OI:10. whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. W. S.R.Observations: Temperature Records      Figure 3. January 1979 – April 2009. moreover. last accessed May 10. first. Satellite and VIZradiosonde intercomparisons for diagnosis of nonclimatic influences. last accessed May and Murray.B. Written testimony to House Ways and Means Committee. 113 . and Norris.D. they “make the following forecast: over the next decade. UAH Globally Averaged Satellite-Based Temperature of the Lower Atmosphere.3. North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly. house. C. second. Christy.B. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 23: 1181-1194.

. Trenberth.. Precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites.) Cambridge University Press.. 1997..B.R. J. Qin. S. W.1029/2008GL037022.) Cambridge University Press. Correcting temperature data sets. Randall. Tropospheric temperature change since 1979 from tropical radiosonde and satellite measurements. and Hnilo. K.R.E. Braswell. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. IPCC.. and Tsonis. K. Nature 386: 164-167.. Spencer. Arctic The IPCC claims “average arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years. J. Cloud and radiation budget changes associated with tropical intraseasonal oscillations.E. Journal of Geophysical Research 112: doi:10. 248). Manning. 2009. (Eds. D. Mears. Z. 2007. and Herman. Tignor and H.D. W. Christy.R. 2007.J. K.H.R.Climate Change Reconsidered    Christy. doi:10. J. R. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L15707. M. Christy. 2005.1029/2007GLO296998. 1997.T. Norris. doi:10.1029/2005JD0068. Wentz. Christy. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. B.. M. 3. R. R. Nature 453: 84-88. A. Santer. and Parker. 2005. 1997.B. Cambridge. 1998. 22 (in press). Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Spurious trends in the satellite MSU temperature record arising from merging different satellite records. S. Journal of Geophysical Research: doi:10.. 1997. M. F. D. and Trenberth.W.M. Using limited time period trends as a means to determine attribution of discrepancies in microwave sounding unit derived tropospheric temperature time series.D. Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. 2007-I. Chen.W. J. 2007-I. Averyt. A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions. Jungclaus. Error estimates of version 5. K. J. Surface temperature variations in East Africa and possible causes. (Eds. 2008. and McNider. Science 309: 1551-1556. Swanson. UK. et al.1651. Later in the report. International Journal of Climatology.L. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 20: 613-629. Spencer. J. Solomon. the IPCC says “the warming over land in the Arctic north of 65°C is more than double the warming in the global mean from the 19th century to the 21st century and also from about the late 1960s to the present. Marquis. most notably the northern North Atlantic near southern Greenland” (p. and Roeckner.0 of MSU-AMSU bulk atmospheric temperatures. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Averyt. R. Effects of satellite orbital decay on MSU lower tropospheric temperature trends. Spencer.A. M. Nature 394: 661-664. and Hurrell.W.1002/joc. R. 2005 is the warmest year” (p. J. Christy.J. The use and abuse of climate models in climate change research. Pearson. Marquis. Tignor and H. Spencer. R. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Keenlyside. J. Douglass. Norris. Has the climate shifted? Geophysical Research Letters 36: L06711. Cambridge.R.E. M. The effect of diurnal correction on satellite-derived lower tropospheric temperature. 2009.R. C. M. D. F.S.R. Chen.L. Solomon.W. But the IPCC then admits that “a few areas have cooled since 1901. Spencer. In the arctic series.” Nature 389: 342-343.M. K. J.L. 2008. J.D. How accurate are satellite “thermometers”? Nature 389: 342-3.. Trenberth.W. W.F. and Singer.D. Braswell. J. Science 310: 972.6. and Schabel. R. DOI:10. B. Latif. Kornblueh.B.1029/2007JD008864.. 2003. J. W.” though it then acknowledges that “arctic temperatures have high decadal variability. p... and Braswell. UK. B. Qin. N. 114 . D. and Wentz. R. E. M. S. L. Norris. and a warm period was also observed from 1925 to 1945” (IPCC 2007-I. Journal of Climate.W. Christy. Hurrell. Science 309: 1548-1551. and Hnilo.B.. Manning.R. Miller..B. D. 2007. K. Z. 7).W. 252).E.J.A.W. W. and Christy. Christy. and Spencer. How accurate are satellite “thermometers. 2005. 1990. Nature 386: 131-133.. Science 247: 1558-1562. M. Miller. So has the Artic really experienced the so-called unprecedented warming of the twentieth century? References IPCC. J..

7°C cooler than at present.” but that “the system flips to another state once the flux reaches a threshold value F + deltaF.000 years.” and that “the transition from one state to another occurs very rapidly when certain climatic parameters attain threshold values. They also depict large temperature excursions over the past 10.1. In fact.000 years ago) were 23 ± 2 °C colder than at present. Focusing on the more pertinent period of the current interglacial or Holocene.000 to 7.000 years.000 years ago. (1998) used data from two ice sheet boreholes to reconstruct the temperature history of Greenland over the past 50. These periods of modest climatic aberration. he notes that in the models “a slight increase in the freshwater flux above the modern level F produces a decrease in the NADW [North Atlantic Deep Water] convection and a moderate cooling in the North Atlantic. he notes that “an intense debate continues in the modeling community about the reality of such instabilities under warm conditions. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were also evident in the borehole data.” Specifically. the progression of these events is such that “the temperature warms abruptly to reach a maximum and then slowly decreases for a few centuries before reaching a threshold. In the Greenland record.5°C warmer than at present. Then.5-0. “all the studies so far carried out fail to answer the crucial question: How close are we to the next bifurcation [which could cause a rapid change-ofstate in earth’s climate system]?” In this regard. during the Climatic Optimum of 4. ocean. Each of these observations raises serious doubts about the models’ ability to correctly forecast earth’s climatic response to the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content. This latter real-world fact clearly suggests we are unlikely to experience any dramatic warming or cooling surprises in the near future.Observations: Temperature Records    3. Greenland Dahl-Jensen et al. after the Little Ice Age. Of this phenomenon. and ice sheets are still unable to correctly simulate that variability on all scales in both time and space.” which state has no deep convection and “is characterized by surface temperatures up to 6°C lower in and around the North Atlantic. interglacial warmth seems to inoculate the planet against climatic instabilities. Bard (2002) reviews the concept of rapid climate change. Bard concentrates on the region of the North Atlantic. which is another reason to not be concerned about the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content. which are evident in Greenland ice core records. temperatures increased steadily to a value that was 2. In another study of Greenland climate that included both glacial and interglacial periods. Bard states.” With respect to what has been learned from observations. which consistently suggest there should have been a significant CO2-induced warming in high northern latitudes over the past several decades. after which it drops back to the cold values that prevailed before the warm event. since all dramatic warming and cooling events that have been detected to date have occurred in either full glacials or transitional periods between glacials and interglacials. the scientists report “temperatures reached a maximum around 1930 AD” and that “temperatures have decreased [our italics] during the last decades.” which is a particularly important point. when the air’s CO2 content was relatively stable. he writes that “it is now recognized that the ocean-atmosphere system exhibits several stable regimes under equivalent external forcings. respectively.” He also reports that “models coupling the atmosphere. we next consider a number of papers that bear upon the reality of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: two wellknown multi-century periods of significant climatic aberration. plus the analogous warm and cool periods that preceded them (the Roman Warm Period and 115 . as long as the earth does not begin drifting towards glacial conditions. allowing only the mild millennial-scale climatic oscillation that alternately brings the earth slightly warmer and cooler conditions typical of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. which are evident in sea surface temperature records derived from the study of North Atlantic deep-sea sediment cores. however. as well as episodes of “drastic cooling” called Heinrich events (with temperature drops “of up to about 5°C”). After the termination of the glacial period. Their analysis indicated that temperatures on the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum (about 25. describing glacial-period millennialscale episodes of dramatic warming called Dansgaard-Oeschger events (with temperature increases “of more than 10°C”). it suggests that allowing more CO2 to accumulate in the atmosphere provides an “insurance policy” against abrupt climate change. with temperatures 1°C warmer and 0.6.” which suggests we do not fully understand the dynamics of these rapid climate changes.” The results of this study stand in stark contrast to the predictions of general circulation models of the atmosphere. according to Bard.

citing borehole temperature data Jensen et al.) were ca.” They additionally data that reflected variations in seabird breeding report that the Crag Cave data “exhibit variations that colonies in the catchment area of the lake.) records. In doing so.D. in an article titled from Toskaljavri with measured borehole “Was the Medieval Warm Period Global?” Broecker temperatures of the GRIP and Dye 3 ice cores (Dahl(2001) answers yes.P. that the Little Ice Age was a global event. after the Medieval reiterate the important fact that the coherent δ18O Warm Period. 0.” where present means the last six decades of significantly warmer place a thousand years ago than the twentieth century. they related to the past presence of seabirds there. after which they compared this situated just off Liverpool Land on the east coast of record with the δ18O records from the GRIP and Greenland.8°C higher than at continents of the world confirm that the earth was a present. indicating regionally coherent Key to the study were certain biogeochemical variability in the early Holocene. a tree-line coincidental concomitant increase in the air’s CO2 lake in the continental sector of northern Fenoscandia content that accompanied the Industrial Revolution.100 Age.” they remark that in several records from Greenland ice cores. it is today. they note that “July temperature to have been approximately 2°C. who briefly reviewed what is known about the mean temperature. 1975) show the Medieval Warm Period (800 to 1200 A. Likewise.” which they note was “the coldest period multicentury δ18O variations in the Greenland ice since the early Holocene in East Greenland. Analyzing it for a number of properties GISP2 ice cores from Greenland. provide strong evidence for signals rather than local effects.” and that Greenland it was characterized by a cooling of “comparisons of a smoothed July temperature record approximately 1. to derive We begin with the study of Keigwin and Boyle quantitative estimates of annual precipitation and July (2000). which had been preceded Dark Ages Cold Period that comprised the prior such by a several-hundred-year period of little to no cycle of climate in that region. as reconstructed by inverse modeling of and 700 years before present (BP) that were temperature profiles in the Greenland Ice Sheet.D. 1998) and the δ18O record from the that reveal the magnitude of the temperature drop over Greenland from the peak warmth of the Crete ice core (Dansgaard et al. and that its 1975). Stating that “mounting evidence indicates Age’ in the North Atlantic region (Dansgaard et al. Then. In concluding they inferred bird presence.” indicative of the summer presence of significant Also evident in the Crag Cave data were the δ18O numbers of seabirds during that “medieval warm signatures of the earlier Roman Warm Period and period. among which is the study of Wagner and Melles (2001).) to the strong similarity in timing of the MWP between the coldest part of the Little Ice Age (1350 to 1860 A.” Their 116 .. and noting that as values during the Medieval Warm Period (ca... (located just above 69°N latitude). The two scientists say their millennial-scale oscillation of earth’s climate that is reconstructions “agree with the traditional concept of evident in a wealth of proxy climate data from around a ‘Medieval Warm Period’ (MWP) and ‘Little Ice the world. Concentrating solely on Greenland and its McDermott et al. (2001) derived a δ18O record immediate environs are several other papers. the data suggested another absence of variations in the records from both sides of the North birds during what they refer to as “a subsequent Little Atlantic “indicate that many of the subtle Ice Age.000-year record that tells us much about that correlate with subtle δ18O changes in the the region’s climatic history. which in turn suggests that the global of Seppa and Birks (2002).” Specifically. who used a recently warming of the Little Ice Age-to-Current Warm developed pollen-climate reconstruction model and a Period transition was likely totally independent of the new pollen stratigraphy from Toskaljavri. These data are broadly consistent with a Medieval Warm Period revealed high levels of the various parameters at ~1000 ± 200 years ago and a two-stage Little Ice measured by Wagner and Melles between about 1.7°C.” Last of all. they report there is “a clear onset was synchronous within a few years in both correlation between our MWP reconstruction and Greenland and Antarctica. who from a stalagmite discovered in Crag Cave in retrieved a sediment core from a lake on an island southwestern Ireland.Climate Change Reconsidered    cores reflect regional North Atlantic margin climate Dark Ages Cold Period).” the existence of a millennial-scale oscillation of Another study that looked at temperature climate that is unforced by changes in the air’s CO2 variations on both sides of the North Atlantic was that content. they found evidence for “centennial-scale δ18O variations obtained a 10. 1400many as six thousand borehole records from all 1000 cal yr B. Greenland ice cores.” as they describe it.

according to the Icelandic Sagas. and biogenic silica and organic matter concentrations. water content. and after AD c. (2004).000 years. which they describe as occurring between AD 885 and 1235. values of the most recent data were not as great as those obtained from the earlier Medieval Warm Period. what the relative warmth of the Medieval Warm Period provided the Norse settlers.” However. Lassen et al. who provide some historical background to their palaeoclimatic work by reporting that “the Norse.Observations: Temperature Records    data also showed signs of a “resettlement of seabirds during the last 100 years. 1990) correspondingly show a significant temperature lowering at AD 1350-1400. with Atlantic water masses in its lower reaches. (2002) independently identified the peak warmth of this period throughout North American extratropical latitudes as “occurring around 990. Jensen et al. Kaplan et al. which was crucial for Norse land use.” but from 1.200 years. including magnetic susceptibility. however.” They report that Viking “colonization around the northwestern North Atlantic occurred during peak Medieval Warm Period conditions that ended in southern Greenland by AD 1100. however.” They also report that “studies of a Canadian high-Arctic ice core and nearby geothermal data (Koerner and Fisher.” Consequently.” We can further explore these aspects of Greenland’s climatic history from three important papers that reconstructed environmental conditions in the vicinity of Igaliku Fjord. in this regard.100 to 700 years BP than it was over the twentieth century.” Thereafter. (2004). except for the Medieval Warm Period. (2002) also worked with data obtained from a small lake. which is recorded throughout the Arctic. density. conclude that stratification of the water column. owing to the mild Medieval Warm Period climate with favorable open-ocean conditions. South Greenland.” but that “a regime of more extreme climatic fluctuations began soon after AD 1000. beginning with the study of Lassen et al.” while we additionally note that Esper et al. during.” Lassen et al. additionally note that “historical documents on Iceland report the presence of the Norse in South Greenland for the last time in AD 1408. indicated by an increase of organic matter in the lake sediment and confirmed by bird observations. the relative cold of the Little Ice Age took from them: the ability to survive on Greenland. More details of the saga of five centuries of Nordic survival at the foot of the Greenland Ice Cap are provided by the trio of papers addressing the palaeohistory of Igaliku Fjord. They discovered that “the interval from 6000 to 3000 cal yr BP was marked by warmth and stability. appears to have prevailed throughout the last 3.. and after the period of Norse habitation of this and other parts of the ice-covered island’s coast. As time progressed. analyzing sediment physical-chemical properties. During this period.5°C rise in temperature. in terms of the overall stability of the environment for sustained plant and animal husbandry. the second and more severe portion of the Little Ice Age occurred. there was a partial amelioration of climate (the Medieval Warm Period) that was associated with an approximate 1.” during what they describe as a period of “unprecedented influx of (ice-loaded) East Greenland Current water masses into the innermost parts of Igaliku Fjord.” noting that Norse movements around the region thereafter “occurred at perhaps the worst time in the last 10. report that the diatom record of Igaliku Fjord “yields evidence of a relatively moist and warm climate at the beginning of settlement. under Eric the Red. Following another brief warming between AD 1500 and 1750. the outer part of Igaliku Fjord experienced enhanced vertical mixing (which they attribute to increased wind stress) that would have been expected to increase nutrient 117 . Based on a highresolution record of the fjord’s subsurface water-mass properties derived from analyses of benthic foraminifera. in their words.300-900 years BP. the glowing promise of the apex of Medieval warmth gave way to the debilitating reality of the depth of Little Ice Age cold. for example. were able to colonize South Greenland at AD 985.” Hence. the climate cooled “until its culmination during the Little Ice Age. that the arrival of the gritty Norsemen was “close to the peak of Medieval warming recorded in the GISP2 ice core which was dated at AD 975 (Stuiver et al. 1995). “the Norse society in Greenland was declining and reaching its final stage probably before the end of the fifteenth century.” They also mention. this one in southern Greenland. which was in turn followed by “naturally initiated post-Little Ice Age warming since AD 1850. and temperatures derived from two Greenland ice cores led to the same conclusion: it was warmer at various times between 1. before.” when. 1350 cooling became more severe. it would appear that the window of climatic opportunity provided by the peak warmth of the Medieval Warm Period was indeed a major factor enabling seafaring Scandinavians to establish long-enduring settlements on the coast of Greenland.

1995. which curtailed Concentrating on the twentieth century.. three previously published and subsequently extended and it was only a matter of time before their fate was SST datasets (Parker et al.Climate Change Reconsidered    the 500 years of Norse colonization.” Eastern Settlement were significant in the crucial In referring to what they call “this important period when the Norse disappeared. the strident Little Ice Age was accompanied by a gradual reprotestations of Mann et al. Jensen et al.” Indeed.. Hanna nutrient upwelling and reduced the high level of and Cappelen (2003) determined the air temperature marine productivity that had prevailed throughout the history of coastal southern Greenland from 1958Medieval Warm Period. based on these more favorable living conditions associated with the findings.. As Lassen et al. but with no obvious lead/lag either way. 2002)—were presence of partly decomposed organic matter). forcing sailing on more southerly routes induced disintegration but actually fortified it against when going to Greenland (Seaver. led to an even greater series followed similar patterns and were strongly “increase of the ice season and a decrease of primary correlated. sealed. Both the land-based air temperature and SST development. the the Labrador Sea off southwest Greenland. particularly in the period between AD at least the southern half of the [Greenland] Ice 1420 and 1580 (Christiansen. was that the observed cooling in coastal southern Greenland “climatic and hydrographic changes in the area of the but it does lend it credibility.” that possibility. as well).” Also. in their words. it was determined that the cooling was also have had a dramatic influence on the local seal “significantly inversely correlated with an increased population and thus the feeding basis for the Norse phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over population. 2001. A similar conclusion was reached severe cooling-induced environmental deterioration by Roncaglia and Kuijpers (2004). report that “geomorphological studies in Northeast Hanna and Cappelen note that the “recent cooling Greenland have shown evidence of increased winter may have significantly added to the mass balance of wind speed. what originally enabled the Norse to successfully Lassen et al. it would using the old sailing routes from Iceland westbound appear that whatever caused the cooling has not only and further southward along the east coast of protected the Greenland Ice Sheet against warmingGreenland. Hence. conclude that surface productivity in the colonize the region.” noting that “this Sheet.” which “could addition. In light of these observations.” Consequently. 1995) and AD 990 (Esper et al. 1998). These linked events.” and that this availability there. 1996). Rayner et al. “around AD 1450. based on data from eight Danish according to Lassen et al. state that “life conditions certainly became harsher during 118 .29°C over the period of study. plus evidence of the presence of Melonis peak warmth of the Medieval Warm Period—which barleeanus during the Medieval Warm Period (the occurred between approximately AD 975 (Stuiver et distribution of which is mainly controlled by the al. it is also clear that the between AD 960 and 1285. In the thousand-plus subsequent fjord during this interval of unusual relative warmth years.” At the same time.. Kalnay et al. “contributed to the loss of Meteorological Institute stations in coastal and nearthe Norse settlement in Greenland.” This other.” marine productivity. (2003) notwithstanding. who found “may very likely have hastened the disappearance of evidence of increased bottom-water ventilation the culture.” The two researchers say this The end result of these several conjoined “NAO-temperature link doesn’t explain what caused phenomena. Jensen et regional exception to recent ‘global warming’. the cooling that led to the (and likely globally.” al..44°C in one case and by 0. nor of comparable terrestrial or supply of marine food for the Norse people..” the past few decades. In production and marine food supply.. since this part of the ice sheet climatic deterioration coincides with reports of is the portion that would likely be the first to increased sea-ice conditions that caused difficulties in experience melting in a warming world. either locally or hemispherically Shortly thereafter.80°C in the East Greenland Current water masses. as well as the deteriorating growing conditions on land and concomitant sea surface temperature (SST) history of simultaneous reductions in oceanic productivity. increasing stratification of the water-column while two of the three SST databases also depicted associated with stronger advection of (ice-loaded) cooling: by 0. 1996). describe it. with coastal southern Greenland. 1996. in the words of Lassen et al. there has never been a sustained period of was “high and thus could have provided a good comparable warmth. based on odds were truly stacked against the Nordic colonies. stratification of the water column. The coastal temperature data the climate further deteriorated with further showed a cooling of 1.

due to the ablation-temperature relations.7°C cooler than now. without a significant anthropogenic influence. 1995. which they call the “great Greenland warming of the 1920s. working with the two stations with the longest records (both over a century in length).” noting that “the summer cooling is rather important information for glaciological studies. when it was 0.” Furthermore. in a study that utilized satellite imagery of the Odden ice tongue (a winter ice cover that occurs in the Greenland Sea with a length of about 1.” Hence. for example.” As they describe it. they report that “not only did the cooling affect the winter months. (2004) discovered that “summer temperatures. the temperature data “show that a warming trend occurred in the Nuuk fjord during the first 50 years of the 1900s. both the annual mean and the average temperature of the three summer months (June.” In fact.03°C per decade during the past 75 years. along with the rest of the world.5°C. and that the subsequent decrease in temperature was so substantial and sustained that current coastal temperatures “are about 1°C below their 1940 values. (2004) examined the temperature history of the Nuuk fjord during the last century. 119 . there is no substance to the claim that Greenland provides evidence for an impending CO2induced warming. when the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration rose by a mere 3 to 4 ppm. Greenland was warming.” What is more. they note that “at the summit of the Greenland ice sheet the summer average temperature has decreased at the rate of 2. In fact.” And this warming.” Chylek et al.” Likewise.” Coincident with this cooling trend there was also what they describe as “a remarkable increase in the number of snowfall days (+59 days). and the Little Ice Age. due to internal climate variability such as the NAM/NAO [Northern Annular Mode/North Atlantic Oscillation]. (2001) determined that the ice phenomenon was “a relatively smaller feature several decades ago. White et al. Between 1920 and 1930. as it emerged. 2003). however. Stuiver et al. when the average annual temperatures decreased by approximately 1.5°C warmer than it is now. followed by a cooling over the second part of the century. These many studies of the temperature history of Greenland depict long-term oscillatory cooling ever since the Climatic Optimum of the mid-Holocene. where their analyses of all pertinent regional data led them to conclude that “at all stations in the Nuuk fjord. as with the Arctic as a whole. 1997). when it was perhaps 2. within which cooling trend is included the Medieval Warm Period. there was a phenomenal warming at all five coastal locations for which contemporary temperature records are available. it would appear that Greenland has not experienced any net warming over the most dramatic period of atmospheric CO2 increase on record. “average annual temperature rose between 2 and 4°C [and by as much as 6°C in the winter] in less than ten years.5 to 0. Taurisano et al. Przybylak (2000) found that “the level of temperature in Greenland in the last 10-20 years is similar to that observed in the 19th century. they report that observational evidence from Jan Mayen Island indicates temperatures there cooled at a rate of 0. resulting in a local climate that may defy the global climate change. At the start of the twentieth century.. it has cooled during this period. conclude that “since there was no significant increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration during that time.300 km and an aerial coverage of as much as 330. but also the summer mean.. they determined that coastal Greenland’s peak temperatures occurred between 1930 and 1940.Observations: Temperature Records    Several other studies have also reported latetwentieth century cooling on Greenland.” due to the warmer temperatures that were prevalent at that time. the Greenland warming of the 1920s demonstrates that a large and rapid temperature increase can occur over Greenland.000 square kilometers) plus surface air temperature data from adjacent Jan Mayen Island.15 ± 0. from the depths of the Little Ice Age. July and August) exhibit a pattern in agreement with the trends observed at other stations in south and west Greenland (Humlum 1999. In addition.. “is also seen in the 18 O/16O record of the Summit ice core (Steig et al.2°C per decade since the beginning of the measurements in 1987. as well as temperature anomalies of 30 grid-boxes from the updated dataset of Jones.” In commenting on this dramatic temperature rise. Comiso et al. when it was about 1°C warmer than it is currently.” These facts led them to speculate that “the NAO may play a crucial role in determining local Greenland climate during the 21st century. as they note.” Clearly. Hanna and Cappelen. and perhaps in other regions of the Arctic. which are most relevant to Greenland ice sheet melting rates. Based on mean monthly temperatures of 37 Arctic and seven sub-Arctic stations.” In a study of three coastal stations in southern and central Greenland that possess almost uninterrupted temperature records between 1950 and 2000. do not show any persistent increase during the last fifty years. as suggested by Hannna and Cappelen (2002).. In the words of Chylek et al. Chylek et al. 1994.

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however.6. Wagner. followed by the Medieval Warm Period from about AD 850 to 1150. B.. 1000-1500. trees. when temperatures averaged 3. over the final 35 years of the record.M. A Holocene seabird record from Raffles So sediments.011°C/year) that was nearly the same as the rate at which it had previously risen. and Kuijpers A.2. H. Quaternary Research 57: 191-199.425-26. J. to a mean value (0. White. 2004.” and that “the warming at the border of the first and second millennia [AD 1000] was longer in time and similar in amplitude. 2002.24 ppm/year.C.439.J.. P. Johnsen. From this record they determined that the most dramatic warming of the last four centuries of the past millennium (1. the rate-of-rise of surface air temperature decelerated.F.. The Frozen Echo: Greenland and the Exploration of North America AD c.500 years and the role of the sun. Taurisano. Geografiska Annaler 86A: 217-224. 1995. Contemporaneously. and Birks. T. Boggild. East Greenland. J. Seasonal precipitation timing and ice core records. Seppa.1. Stanford University Press. Boreas 30: 228239. Quaternary Research 44: 341-354. the cooling of the Little Ice Age from AD 1200 though 1800. suggesting to the two researchers that “the tree ring chronology of [the Siberian] region can be used to analyze both regional peculiarities and global temperature variations in the Northern Hemisphere. 1997. A century of climate variability and climate gradients from coast to ice sheet in West Greenland. E. Steig. South Greenland. and Melles.17 ppm/year (nearly five times the rate at which it had risen in the prior period).. M. when the air’s CO2 content rose at a mean rate of 1.4°C. D. it is not possible to assess the influence of atmospheric CO2 on surface air temperature or even to conclude it has any effect at all. the two scientists say it was “not extraordinary. M. Barlow. P.” In addition. 3. while the air’s CO2 concentration rose from 313 ppm to 354 ppm. their reconstructed temperatures for the Holocene Climatic Optimum revealed there was an even warmer period about 5. Palynofacies analysis and organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts in late-Holocene sediments from Igaliku Fjord. as the air’s CO2 concentration rose by an average of 0.Observations: Temperature Records    Roncaglia. and glaciers to develop a 400-year history of circum-Arctic surface air temperature. This work revealed that fluctuations in average annual temperature derived from the Siberian record agreed well with air temperature variations reconstructed from the Greenland data. 1994. Rest of Arctic Overpeck et al. L.5°C) occurred between 1840 and 1955.. H. air temperature rose by an average of 0. over which period the air’s CO2 concentration rose from approximately 285 ppm to 313 ppm. H. Science 266: 1885-1886. and Karlsen. and Stuiver. Holocene climate reconstructions from the Fennoscandian tree-line area based on pollen data from Toskaljavri. A.A. (1997) combined paleoclimatic records obtained from lake and marine sediments. Seaver. Why? Because over the first 115 years of warming. Then. Stanford. Journal of Geophysical Research 102: 26.. CA.J.E.J. Grootes. They compared their results with those obtained from an analysis of isotopic oxygen data extracted from a Greenland ice core.M. 2004. and Clausen. In regard to this latter temperature rise. On the basis of these observations. Grootes. L.B. from 1955 to the end of the record (about 1990). or by 41 ppm. H. Jouzel.. Stuiver. S.K. ocean. in response to climatic and oceanic changes.” Naurzbaev and Vaganov reported that several warm and cool periods prevailed for several multicentury periods throughout the last two millennia: a cool period in the first two centuries AD. The climate signal in the stable isotopes of snow from Summit. reporting temperature variations for the Asian subarctic region over the past 600 years. (2000) also used tree-ring width as a temperature proxy.. 1996.W. P. Their graph of these data reveals that temperatures in this region exhibited a 121 . Fisher.. USA.013°C/year. 2001. Naurzbaev and Vaganov (2000) developed a 2.000 years ago. The Holocene 14: 172-184. The GISP2 δ18O climate record of the past 16. cooling again from 600 to 800 AD. Greenland: Results of comparisons with modern climate observations. as well as a similar history covering the period of the Holocene Climatic Optimum (3300 to 2600 BC). and volcanoes.3°C more than they did over the past two millennia. which apply to the entire Arctic. or by 28 ppm.G. Stuiver.B. the mean circum-Arctic air temperature declined by 0. Grootes. and Braziunas. followed by the recovery warming of the twentieth century. a warm period from AD 200 to 600.M. C. M. M.200-year temperature history using tree-ring data obtained from 118 trees near the upper-timberline in Siberia for the period 212 BC to AD 1996. Vaganov et al. K.

while to 1500. Working near Island. Kasper and Allard (2001) changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activity. At the modern In another study from the same year. real-world data commentators wrongly point to as evidence of CO2show an actual cooling trend since around 1940. resulting in grew by 20-30 cm.75°W).1°C observed at the record and signaling the onset of the Little Ice Age on meteorological station in Salluit. from about 2°C from AD 1195-1220.” as the coldest conditions of the past 4. two examined soil deformations caused by ice wedges (a factors that are free of anthropogenic influence. which lasted 400 years. the researchers extends from southern Oregon to the Kenai Peninsula. temperatures rose quantitative assessment of the effects of temperature 122 . Moore et al. in harmony with a reported the following decade being one of the coldest in the temperature decline of 1. however.240-year record of mean summer temperature for they found evidence of ice wedge activity prior to AD this region that averaged 2. a cooling event that brought temperatures back to levels Russian island located between the Barents and Kara characteristic of the Little Ice Age. from AD 1030 were as high as 4°C around AD 1000 and 1100. anomalously warm decades with temperatures that reflective of warmer conditions.” radiation. when the Little Ice Lake witnessed what they called “one of the largest Age ruled. and from 1500 to 1900 ice at the beginning of the thirteenth century Donard wedge activity was at its peak.” which over the entire 600-year period (r = 0.41 for volcanic activity). that in this region Oscillation. a warmer period prevailed. “average summer temperatures rose rapidly by nearly Thereafter.” And in attempting to North America [was] characterized by alternating determine the cause or causes of the temperature regimes of relatively warmer and cooler SST [sea fluctuations. It is also abrupt 1976-77 shift in this Pacific Decadal enlightening to note. a severe cooling conditions to the end of the record in 1990. widespread and abundant form of ground ice in One year later. during which time more than 90 period of extended warmth that lasted until an abrupt percent of the ice wedges studied reactivated and cooling event occurred around AD 1375. determined that the amplitude of twentieth century Alaska. a gradual warming trend occurred Forman (2001) analyzed twentieth century changes in over the period 1800-1900.” A 1990) of the industrial period (r = 0. mountain hemlock growing near the treeline that In analyzing the entire record. Thereafter. as it is generally called. followed by a dramatic glacier terminus positions on north Novaya Zemlya. r = -0.” with temperatures near 4. which They concluded that “regime shifts in the North correlation improved over the shorter interval (1800Pacific have occurred 11 times since 1650. punctuated correlation with solar radiation and volcanic activity by abrupt shifts in the mean background state.68 for solar significant aspect of these findings is the fact that the radiation. Where warming does exist in the record—between induced global warming. Zeeberg and end of the record. where climate models predict large responsible for the vast majority of the past halfincreases in temperature as a result of the historical century’s warming in Alaska. small positive trend from the beginning of the record whereupon they trended downwards toward cooler until about AD 1750. they report finding a significant surface temperature] in the North Pacific. 62°W). northern Quebéc (approx. Between AD 750-1990. to produce a Salluit. this activity decreased. followed by a 130-year warming trend Gedalof and Smith (2001) compiled a transect of from about 1820 through 1950. reflecting cold climatic conditions. Baffin Island. after which six tree ring-width chronologies from stands of temperatures fell once again. Over the period of their study (AD 1599warming “does not go beyond the limits of 1983). suggesting this climatic interval exhibited climatic transitions in over a millennium.9°C over the period AD 140. trend ensued. they determined that “much of the prereconstructed natural temperature fluctuations in the instrumental record in the Pacific Northwest region of Holocene subarctic zone. 75.32 for solar were found to be “relatively common occurrences. (2001) analyzed permafrost regions that can grow during colder sediment cores extracted from Donard Lake. ending in the warmest 1900 to 1946. which was followed by a return to cold decade in the record. is what was of the world.59 for volcanic activity). providing in the process a lasted until about 1950. conditions cooled. Within this period there were several 140 and 1030. conditions during the last five decades of the This latter temperature rise was then followed by a twentieth century.25°N. in this regard. r = -0. Then. which chilliness Seas in the Arctic Ocean.5°C.000 years. about 1820 and 1940—much of it correlates with About the same time. Canada (~66. Thereafter. 1. which some rise in the air’s CO2 concentration. 62°N.Climate Change Reconsidered    once more throughout the 1950s and 1960s. Baffin periods and deform and crack the soil).

located within the region of study.. and maximum extent over the period 1979-1998. is in direct contrast with predictions of rapid and increasing warmth in earth’s polar regions as a result of CO2-induced global warming. This work revealed a significant and accelerated post-Little Ice Age glacial retreat in the first and second decades of the twentieth century. The Odden ice tongue was found to vary in size.15 ± 0. over the past seven decades. bolsters the view that there has been little to no warming in this part of the Arctic. Naurzbaev et al. for example.” Their data also reveal three other important pieces of information: (1) the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods were both warmer than the Current Warm Period has been to date.” Over the bulk of the twentieth century. (2002) developed a 2. 1996.427-year proxy temperature history for the part of the Taimyr Peninsula. 1998.” but they did “not support amplified warming in polar regions predicted by GCMs. to infer the behavior of the phenomenon over the past 75 years. are “counter to warming of the Eurasian Arctic predicted for the twenty-first century by climate models. but by 1952. However.” the temperature histories of the two regions were “similar. the recession of more than half of the glaciers stopped. wherein (1) the Current 123 . virtually unchanged in the mean during the past 20 years.” With respect to the second of these three periods. along with the observational evidence from Jan Mayen Island that temperatures there actually cooled at a rate of 0. In the four decades since 1961. shape. as well as most of its other parts. All of these observations are at odds with what is portrayed in the Northern Hemispheric “hockey stick” temperature history of Mann et al. displaying a fair amount of interannual variability. when they say “multi-decadal variability had little net effect on computed trends. They used surface air temperature data from Jan Mayen Island. lying between 70°30’ and 72°28’ North latitude.Observations: Temperature Records    and precipitation on glacial mass balance.5°C colder than they were over the prior 40 years. and length of occurrence during the 20-year period. based on a study of ring-widths of living and preserved larch trees. Schweingruber and Briffa.3° to 2. noting that it has been shown that “the main driver of tree-ring variability at the polar timber-line [where they worked] is temperature (Vaganov et al. These glacial stabilizations and advances were attributed by the two scientists to observed increases in precipitation and/or decreases in temperature. Such observations.8°C colder than they were over the prior 40-year period.. and many tidewater glaciers actually began to advance. northern Russia. and (3) the Current Warm Period peaked somewhere in the vicinity of 1940. (2000) utilized satellite imagery to analyze and quantify a number of attributes of the Odden ice. 1996).” This work revealed that “the warmest periods over the last two millennia in this region were clearly in the third [Roman Warm Period]. particularly for the winter season. weather stations at Novaya Zemlya show summer temperatures to have been 0. Throughout the 125-year history they developed. maximum area. in Zeeberg and Forman’s words. The fact that the Odden ice tongue has persisted. This observation. 1999) and its thousand-year global extension developed by Mann and Jones (2003). tenth to twelfth [Medieval Warm Period] and during the twentieth [Current Warm Period] centuries. they emphasize that “the warmth of the two centuries AD 1058-1157 and 9501049 attests to the reality of relative mediaeval warmth in this region. a proxy reconstruction of the Odden ice tongue for the past 75 years revealed the ice phenomenon to have been “a relatively smaller feature several decades ago.” Comiso et al. trend analyses revealed that the ice tongue had exhibited no statistically significant change in any of the parameters studied over the short 20-year period. Briffa et al.03°C per decade during the past 75 years. (2002b) used newly available long-term Russian observations of surface air temperature from coastal stations to gain new insights into trends and variability in the Arctic environment poleward of 62°N. Polyakov et al. Quantitatively. (1998.3° to 0. (2) the beginning of the end of the Little Ice Age was somewhere in the vicinity of 1830. They found they could “identify periods when Arctic trends were actually smaller or of different sign [our italics] than Northern Hemisphere trends. dominated by multi-decadal fluctuations with a timescale of 60-80 years”.” In a concomitant study. During the next 50 years.” due to the significantly warmer temperatures that prevailed at that time. they identified “strong intrinsic variability. the region’s glaciers had experienced between 75 to 100 percent of their net twentieth century retreat. while winter temperatures were 2. they found temperature trends in the Arctic to be highly dependent on the particular time period selected for analysis. including its average concentration.

but then it 124 . were surface air temperature history that stretched from struggling with this perplexing problem. proves that. Japan. such that by the end of the temperature history of the region. proved centered on approximately 1930. and the and instrumental temperatures subsequent to 1960. above the Arctic Circle in Svalbard. over the next six decades. when the air’s CO2 concentration rose by Przybylak (2002) conducted a detailed analysis of approximately 55 ppm. although it did the period 1951-90. As would be record there was an approximate 1. “as on cause of the disconcerting data divergence. Canada. they too found that change. the 1930s were the warmest decade in the researchers wrote that these unsettled questions Trondheim record. Estonia. and Russian measurements that were initiated in the late scientists found the surface air temperature of the nineteenth century. after which they compared the huge northern region rose hardly at all. warming and.” Consequently. (2004) reviewed several prior majority of the climatic regions in the Arctic.7°C in just 20 years to reach a peak in 1937 Warm Period is depicted as the warmest such era of that was not eclipsed over the remainder of the the past two millennia. Netherlands used δ18O data to reconstruct a 600-year with measured temperatures rising and reconstructed temperatures falling. Norway. The three Svalbard. there was a large divergence of reconstructed Finland. (2) recovery from the Little record. and (3) the temperature. and average air temperature and diurnal air warming that preceded it.Climate Change Reconsidered    climbed 1. in the Arctic in temperature dropped dramatically.” In the same year. however. 1997. leaving instrumental temperature record at Longyearbyen also room for a growing urban heat island effect in the shows the decade of the 1930s to have been the instrumental temperature record to be the principal warmest. During this 20-year period of rapidly rising air Ice Age does not begin until after 1910. stratospheric ozone concentrations over this period. while the “equivocal. In addition. century’s final decade. may have cooled. as well as trends in average seasonal and the warmest period of the past six centuries occurred annual values of temperature investigated earlier in the 1930s and early 1940s.S. than it did throughout the 20-year period of dramatic minimum. the warmest decade of the twentieth century was The results of their effort. Polyakov et 1875 to 2000. no tangible manifestations of the recover somewhat over the last two decades of the greenhouse effect can be identified. 2000). (2003) retrieved two ice cores (one still less than the mean value of the entire 1400s and from Lomonosovfonna and one from Austfonna) far portions of the 1500s.5°C difference expected—in light of the earth’s transition from the between them. after Averaged across all land area poleward of 50°N which the 12 cooperating scientists from Norway. the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration rose Current Warm Period experiences it highest temperatures in the latter part of the twentieth by a mere 8 ppm. the team of eight U. Sweden.” However.” as they themselves described it. basis of these tree-ring density data. But then. the surface air temperature temperature range for the entire Arctic—as delineated of the region poleward of 62°N experienced no net by Treshnikov (1985)—for the period 1951-1990. the authors remark that.” This analyses of maximum latewood density data obtained work indicated that trends in both the intraseasonal from a widespread network of tree-ring chronologies and interannual variability of the temperatures studied that spanned three to six centuries and were derived did not show any significant changes. Briffa et al. Nevertheless. its final value was Isaksson et al. latitude. based on data from 10 stations “representing the Briffa et al. (2004) were developing a long-term history of 75 land stations and a number of drifting buoys Atlantic Core Water Temperature (ACWT) in the located poleward of 62°N latitude. in fact. based on measurements carried out at al. or nearly seven times more intraseasonal and interannual variability in maximum. From 1875 to Arctic Ocean using high-latitude hydrographic about 1917. the region’s (Przybylak. For the land area of the Przybylak to conclude that “this aspect of climate globe poleward of 20°N latitude. Polyakov et al.” twentieth century. there was no net prevented them “from claiming unprecedented warming over the last seven decades of the twentieth hemispheric warming during recent decades on the century in the parts of Norway cited in this study. leading from nearly 400 locations. attempted to relate this Little Ice Age to the Current Warm Period—the large temperature differential to a hypothesized international group of scientists reported that “the decrease in tree growth that was caused by a δ18O data from both Lomonosovfonna and Austfonna hypothesized increase in ultraviolet radiation that they ice cores suggest that the twentieth century was the hypothesized to have been caused by declining warmest during at least the past 600 years. (2003) derived a About the same time that Briffa et al. Thereafter.

In discussing their findings. revealed the existence of “two distinct warm periods from the late 1920s to 1950s and in the late 1980s-90s and two cold periods. But the most recent temperature peak was very short-lived. The researchers’ primary objectives in this work were to identify any temporal cycles that might be present in the two datasets and to determine what caused them. 2004).’s presentation of the mean annual tree-ring series for the northern Eurasia timberline clearly shows that the region’s thermal recovery from the coldest temperatures of the Little Ice Age (LIA) may be considered to have commenced as early as 1820 and was in full swing by at least 1840. say that... however. Raspopov et al. Thereafter. Polyakov et al. Jomelli and Pech.” which covered the period 1880-2000.Observations: Temperature Records  results of this exercise with the long-term history of Arctic Surface Air Temperature (SAT) developed by Polyakov et al. like Arctic SATs. 1999) “hockey stick” temperature history. is not registered in the proxy data. In addition. (years) BP. including the Medieval Warm Period. and it rapidly declined to hover around a value that was approximately 1°C cooler over the last few years of the record. however.. they report that “a modern warming of surface waters .” Of even more interest. (1998. when very cold conditions were indicated by several proxies. 1997) along the northern timberline. 2002. (2004) presented and analyzed two temperature-related datasets. with the peak temperature of the latter warm period being not quite as high as the peak temperature of the former warm period. (2004) documented climatic changes over the past 1. (2003).. Benner et al.” Thereafter. Knudsen et al. both records indicate that late twentieth century warmth was basically no different from that experienced in the late 1930s and early 1940s. The first was “a direct and systematic air temperature record for the Kola Peninsula. Their ACWT record. while the second was   an “annual tree-ring series generalized for 10 regions (Lovelius.” The SAT record depicted essentially the same thing. “by multidecadal fluctuations with a time scale of 50-80 years. stable isotopes..” even in sea surface temperatures measured over the period 1948-2002.” They also found that “minimum seasurface temperatures were reached at around 350 cal.” which included nearly all of northern Eurasia that borders the Arctic Ocean. this relationship was reversed. One further study from 2004 yields much the same conclusion. all of which demonstrate that the Little Ice Age-to-Current Warm Period transition began somewhere in the neighborhood of 1820 to 1850. (2004) set the stage for what they did by stating that “thawing of the permafrost which underlies a substantial fraction of the Arctic could accelerate carbon losses from soils (Goulden et 125 . in their words. In the case of the ACWT record. the temperature once again declined to the end of the record in 2000. one at the beginning of the record (until the 1920s) and another in the 1960s-70s. 2002.” In addition. well before the date (~1910) that is indicated in the Mann et al.. the KolaMurmansk instrumental record indicates a significant temperature rise that peaked in the early 1990s at about the same level as the pre-1950 peak. Moore et al. for the period 14581975 in the longitude range from 30°E to 170°E.” and that “there is no clear indication of warming of water masses in the area during the last decades. the Little Ice Age. BP. was characterized by relatively high bottom and surface water temperatures. however. a time when the air’s CO2 concentration was fully 65 ppm less than it is today.” after which “a general temperature decrease in the area marks the transition to . while the former finding (that the thermal recovery of this climatically sensitive region of the planet began in the first half of the nineteenth century) is also supported by a number of other studies (Esper et al.200 years via high-resolution multi-proxy studies of benthic and planktonic foraminiferal assemblages. Arctic ACWTs are dominated. was what they learned about the temporal development of the Current Warm Period (CWP).” which were found to “correlate well with the corresponding solar activity cycles. Gonzalez-Rouco et al. they report discovering “climatic cycles with periods of around 90. in the vicinity of Murmansk. with the peak temperature of the latter warm period slightly exceeding the peak temperature of the former warm period. 2003. to quote them. These efforts resulted in their learning that “the time period between 1200 and around 7-800 cal. but after that time. it shows that the rising temperature peaked just prior to 1950 and then declined to the end of the record in 1975. With respect to this dual goal. and icerafted debris found in three sediment cores retrieved from the North Icelandic shelf. The latter of these findings (that there has been no net warming of this expansive high-latitude region over the last half of the twentieth century) is in harmony with the findings of the many studies reviewed above. from the Kola Peninsula to Chukotka. 22-23 and 11-12 years. 2002. but arrives at it by very different means.. Raspopov et al. Yoo and D’Odorico.

with decades later. They found “since 1970. focusing on Spitsbergen vast areas of boreal forest and extensive peat bogs.” with the result that “Baffin Bay more rapidly in the early 1920s than has been and Davis Strait display strong significant increasing documented anywhere else before or since. only to be trends in ice concentrations and extent. 2002).” and they stated that satellite tracking data. to evaluate climate indicative of enhanced regional warming. (2005) noted that state-of-the-art al. climate data. 1983. reflected in both Svalbard over the twentieth century appears to have oceanographic and biological conditions (Hanna and been a real rollercoaster ride. with temperatures rising Cappelen.. riverine DOC “is derived primarily from recently “represents the most pronounced increase in MAAT fixed plant litter and near-surface soil horizons. both of which transitions were totally comparable increases detected back to 1953 out of line with what climate models suggest should (Parkinson et al. their Laidre and Heide-Jorgensen (2005) published a own work revealed that it had “increased in length most unusual paper.b) had “presented from centuries to millennia (Schell. they report that “from average radiocarbon age of the DOC of Arctic rivers 1957 to 1968. the current location of the 2000a.. play key roles. They studied the species’ glacier advance in Svalbard usually represents the vulnerability to recent and possible future climate Holocene maximum glacier extension. 2003). the absence of aging implied by their by a more gradual increase towards the end of the findings provides strong evidence for the absence of twentieth century.b.” recent large-scale warming there. In doing so. as well as two much central region at 78°13’N latitude. climate change in Greenland has cooled.” And since ice and permafrost. Using a combination of long-term during the last c. report that “a marked warming dominated by Arctic tundra..” 126 . in that it dealt with the danger of from about 3 km to its present size of about 5 km oceanic cooling. dynamics and their respective impacts on highSpecifically. (the Archipelago’s main island) and the accounting for about a third of all riverine DOC Longyearbreen glacier located in its relatively dry discharge to the Arctic Ocean). 2002. as high as 7. which do not support the modeled polar rivers to see if there were any indications of amplification of surface air-temperature changes increasing amounts of older carbon being transported observed by surface stations at lower latitudes. with average radiocarbon ages ranging also said Polyakov et al. the climate in West As for what it all means.5 followed by a nearly equivalent temperature drop four percent per decade between 1979 and 1996. 1998).” In addition. Parkinson. they typically old. and remotely “this example of late-Holocene glacier growth sensed sea ice concentrations to detect localized represents a widespread phenomenon in Svalbard and habitat trends of narwhals—a species of whale with a in adjoining Arctic regions. 1100 years. the Yenisey and Ob’ (which drain the Archipelago of Svalbard. they report that “freshwater climate models were predicting that “the effect of any discharge to the Arctic Ocean is expected to increase present and future global climatic change will be with increasing temperatures (Peterson et al. because warming should have caused the instrumental period. in their words.” they set about to measure climate and sea-ice cover during the twentieth the age of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Arctic century.. 2000. they sampled two of the largest latitude glaciers.” They proceeded to do just that for Eurasian rivers. home to the largest narwhal Arctic” that “may explain why the Little Ice Age population in the world. in their words. Stern and terminus of the Longyearbreen glacier suggests that.5°C to -4. Heide-Jorgensen. which indicates. therefore. followed to increase. as well as atmospheric the organic carbon in Arctic soils. 2003). In addition. “is greenhouse gases. in their words. whose watersheds are region. have occurred. 1999. that Arctic 9. With respect to the Longyearbreen glacier. amplified in the polar regions as a result of feedbacks potentially resulting in greater riverine export of in which variations in the extent of glaciers.Climate Change Reconsidered    Humlum et al.” documented anywhere in the world during the Thus.” and to the ocean.” Then.” However.0°C. they found around 1920 changed the mean annual air temperature modern radiocarbon ages for all samples taken from (MAAT) at sea level within only 5 years from about all rivers. snow.. Deser et al. MAAT dropped about 4°C. 2002).” which they describe as a long spear-like tusk—in Baffin Bay between “development towards cooler conditions in the Greenland and Canada. sea terrigenous organic carbon to the ocean. updated observational trends and variations in Arctic Schirrmeister et al.” which change. Humlum et al. smaller rivers on the north slope of Alaska. the In reviewing what was already known about the Ikpikpuk and Kokolik. (2002a. which (if there were) would be “there is reason.” trends. Parkinson and Cavalieri.

wavelet analysis gave little to no indication of a CO2 forcing of Arctic SSTs.” and “between 1930 and 1950 this relationship is striking. “to the longest record available from Greenland at Ilulissat/Jakobshavn (since 1873). and (3) a total solar irradiance (TSI) record developed by Hoyt and Schatten (1993. He performed a number of statistical analyses on (1) a composite Arctic-wide SAT record constructed by Polyakov et al.4°C per year and 50% decrease in sea ice cover. when retreat averaged 20 m per year. 53°31’W) on Disko Island (West Greenland) for the period 19912004. while CO2 forcing explained only between 8 and 22 percent.” and “there has been little overall retreat since the 1980s. and Flaajokull. Hanna et al. updated by Hoyt in 2005) over the period 1875-2000. (2003). non-surging. and longerterm variations in surface air temperature (SAT). Solar forcing generally explained well over 75 percent of the variance in decadal-smoothed seasonal and annual Arctic temperatures. followed once again by warming—but not generally back up to the level of the 1930s/1940s warm period. outlets of southern Vatnajokull. (2006) developed a 119-year history of Icelandic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) based on measurements made at 10 coastal stations located between latitudes 63°24’N and 66°32’N.” but that “similar changes in air temperatures [had] occurred previous[ly] within the last 130 years. This work revealed the existence of past “long-term variations and trends that are broadly similar to Icelandic air temperature records: that is. (2) global CO2 concentrations taken from estimates made by the NASA GISS climate modeling group. In one final paper from 2005.” Once this was done. were able to place the air temperature trend observed at Disko “in a 130 years perspective. multi-decadal. and at a time when atmospheric CO2 concentrations are higher than they have been for millions of years. however. that has been driving temperature change in the Arctic over the twentieth century. Drinkwater (2006) decided “to provide a review of the changes to the marine 127 .” Thereafter. using geomorphological evidence to reconstruct patterns of past glacier fluctuations and lichenometry and tephrostratigraphy to date glacial landforms created by the glacier over the past four centuries. generally cold conditions during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.”   Hansen et al. Bradwell et al.” In addition. This work revealed “there is a particularly close correspondence between summer air temperature and the rate of ice-front recession of Lambatungnajokull during periods of overall retreat. marked changes were noted over the course of the study period.” The researchers also report that “the 20th-century record of reconstructed glacier-front fluctuations at Lambatungnajokull compares well with those of other similar-sized.” Hansen et al.” Contemporaneously. strong warming in the 1920s. and not atmospheric CO2. in the words of the researchers.” More specifically. Fjallsjokull. Wavelet analysis further supported the case for solar forcing of SAT. they say the retreat “slowed in the 1960s. it would appear that it is the sun.” In Iceland.” They also report that “ice-front recession was greatest during the 1930s and 1940s. due to “a high correlation between mean monthly air temperatures at the two stations (1991-2004). (2006) analyzed meteorological data from Arctic Station (69°15’N. Svalbard and “adjoining Arctic regions” are still experiencing some of the lowest temperatures of the entire Holocene. The results of Soon’s analyses indicated a much stronger statistical relationship exists between SAT and TSI than between SAT and atmospheric CO2 concentration. including “increasing mean annual air temperatures on the order of 0. Skalafellsjokull.” This exercise led them to conclude that the climate changes of the past decade were “dramatic. they report that the changes they observed over the last decade “are on the same order as changes [that] occurred between 1920 and 1930. (2006) examined the link between late Holocene fluctuations of Lambatungnajokull (an outlet glacier of the Vatnajokull ice cap of southeast Iceland) and variations in climate. They find “the pattern of glacier fluctuations of Lambatungnajokull over the past 200 years reflects the climatic changes that have occurred in southeast Iceland and the wider region. This he did by examining the roles the two variables may have played in forcing decadal. revealing similar time-frequency characteristics for annual and seasonally averaged temperatures at decadal and multi-decadal time scales. Based on these findings.Observations: Temperature Records  even now.” including Skaftafellsjokull. Soon (2005) explores the question of what was the more dominant driver of twentieth century temperature change in the Arctic: the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration or variations in solar irradiance. with peak SSTs typically being attained around 1940. By contrast. after which their results were correlated. and cooling thereafter until the 1970s.

” Consequently.” 1920s and 1930s and to discuss them in the light of contemporary ideas of regime shifts. Sodankylaeand Karasjoki in that were unknown in northern areas prior to the northern Finland. Jakobshavn.g. and Nome in 128 .” in the words of Drinkwater. This change in climate occurred they note this result “is in agreement with other “during the 1920s.” which warming “led to reduced ice cover in ground over Russia and the Russian polar region the Arctic and subarctic regions and higher sea north of the Arctic circle has been documented by 5 temperatures.” and that “Svalbard the reduced extent of ice-covered waters. and a minimum production. representative of much of the Arctic. climatology of snow cover. respectively. when he reports that In commenting on this development. occurring at multiple Data Center and Russian Institute for trophic levels and on a geographical scale that is at Hydrometeorological Information … to assess the least regional in extent. “through the A recent essay that appeared in Ambio: A Journal 1940s and 1950s air temperatures in the northernmost of the Human Environment. plus the “average air temperatures began to rise rapidly and similar findings of others.” Iceland. and “with was reached around 1970.Climate Change Reconsidered    constitute the most significant regime shift ecosystems of the northern North Atlantic during the experienced in the North Atlantic in the 20th century. “there is also [similar] data from other reports.” As a result. and Stykkisholmur in Iceland. as he describes it. Drinkwater states that “the Greenland.” In addition.11°C per decade over the last seventy years of the Greenland. “in this particular period the Arctic higher values occurring in West Greenland and warming was absent.” when “mean “changes in snow cover extent during the 1936-2004 annual air temperatures increased by approximately period cannot be linked with ‘warming’ (particularly 0.” Mayen in the north Atlantic.] National Climatic biological community structure.5 to 6°C between 1920 and 1940 with the continue. frozen and unfrozen he first determined that “in the 1920s and 1930s. the five researchers say continued to do so through the 1930s.” They determined that temperatures in the northern North Atlantic and the “during the past 69 years (1936-2004 period).” as some have claimed.g. His answer is a Atlantic and slightly earlier in the northeast Atlantic.” indicative of a cooling trend of approximately 1200 km northward along West 0.” Why? Because. Salehard in inland Siberia. by Karlén (2005) asks if regions varied but generally remained relatively temperatures in the Arctic are “really rising at an high.” and “migration of ‘warmer water’ twentieth century.” as well as northward shifts of multiple days or 3% and 12 days or 5%. e.5-1°C and the cumulative sums of anomalies varied with the Arctic warming). and their temporal variability for the was a dramatic warming of the air and ocean period from 1936 to 2004. Nordklim data from Bjornoya and Jan contribution from northern spawning sites increased. (2006) reported using “a new defined regime shift as “a persistent radical shift in Global Synoptic Data Network consisting of 2100 typical levels of abundance or productivity of stations within the boundaries of the former Soviet multiple important components of the marine Union created jointly by the [U. e.” according to Drinkwater. as they from 1. Ostrov Dikson on the north coast of warming in the 1920s and 1930s is considered to Siberia. he writes that “some southern species of fish northern Norway. species also changed with earlier arrivals and later Karlén goes on to say “the observed warming departures.S. with the largest changes occurring north increase in duration of the period with snow on the of 60°N. Karlén reports In the realm of biology. resounding no. and especially after 1925. and considering all Godthaab. but the mean temperature water allow[ed] for higher production than in the in the late 1990s was still slightly cooler than it was in colder periods.” Thereafter.” declining in the late 1960s in the northwest alarming rate. frequent visitors.” that “the “contributed to higher primary and secondary temperature thereafter became lower. which he later shows to be in certain parts of the region. there ground reports. more open thereafter became warmer.” and warming event became occasional. and in some cases. the early twentieth that “the Svalbard mean annual temperature increased century warming of North Atlantic waters rapidly from the 1910s to the late 1930s. Drinkwater notes that “new during the 1930s is supported by data from several spawning sites were observed farther north for several stations along the Arctic coasts and on islands in the species or stocks while for others the relative Arctic.” As a prologue to this effort.” and marine ecosystems. an high Arctic.” where he Groisman et al. Vardo and Tromso in Also. Focusing on Svalbard Lufthavn which cooling has only recently begun to be reversed (located at 78°N latitude). and Egedesmindde in aspects of the event. cod “spread the late 1930s.” findings.

C. Karlén reports that the 250-year temperature record of Stockholm “shows that the fluctuations of the 1900s are not unique. Gedalof. Wadhams. and Sugden. and Smith.” And this is especially important. Osborn. Global and Planetary Change 40: 11-26. the record from Godthab Nuuk showed that while temperatures there “were also increasing during the 1995-2005 period. B..J.. “indicate the same pattern of changes in annual mean temperature: a warm 1930s. G. 2006. and thereafter a warming.L.E.M. R. 2001.R. Comiso. B. also compared temperatures for the 10-year periods of 1920-1930 and 1995-2005. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10.”   Additional information on this topic. covering the period 1905 to 2005..A. E. Arctic sea ice variability in the context of recent atmospheric circulation trends. T. on Greenland’s southeast coast. Z. subject/a/arctictemptrends. can be found at http://www. P. F.. Vize in the Arctic Sea north of the Siberian coast and Frobisher Bay and Clyde on Baffin Island. diverse suggesting a long term cooling and shorter warming periods. K.J. Pedersen. They found “the 1955 to 2005 averages of the summer temperatures and the temperatures of the warmest month at both Godthab Nuuk and Ammassalik are significantly lower than the corresponding averages for the previous 50 years (1905-1955). e.. Export of young terrigenous dissolved organic carbon from rivers to the Arctic Ocean.. The regime shift of the 1920s and 1930s in the North Atlantic. Journal of Climatology 13: 617-633. K.” and that “changes of the same magnitude as in the 1900s occurred between 1770 and 1800. Dubey. southeast Iceland. 2004.C.1029/2003GL018264.C. Kaiser. because the model-based prediction “is that changes will be strongest and first noticeable in the Arctic.. Briffa. M. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. Interdecadal climate variability and regime-scale shifts in Pacific North America. a cooling until around 1970.g. F. Harden. and Schweingruber. J. Gower. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 9093-9116. Crill. and Schweingruber. P.” In addition. T. J. 2001.F. in Karlén’s words.J. D. to quote him further. and Zorita.W. Fries. T. Daube. 2006.” Finally. Wofsy.K. and Amon.D.php. Esper. S. References Benner.1029/2003GL019251. including reviews of newer publications as they become available.” Chylek et al. (2006) provides a more up-to-date report on average summer temperatures recorded at Ammassalik. and Gersten. R. Lowfrequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability.” All of these stations. and Timlin.. K. and Vaganov.. Chylek. Shiyatov. and Lesins. Seasonal and interannual variability of the Odden ice tongue and a study of environmental effects. S. 2003. P. 1998.. Deser... he says “many stations with records starting later than the 1930s also indicate cooling... Geophysical Research Letters 33: L11707.C.. The summers at both the southwestern and the southeastern coast of Greenland were significantly colder within the 19552005 period compared to the 1905-1955. A..H. K. the temperature has decreased.. J. Fan. They found the average summer temperature for 2003 in Ammassalik was a record high since 1895. Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: a review.S.W. M.H.J. and Godthab Nuuk on the island’s southwestern coast.A. F.” Similarly. Gonzalez-Rouco. Science 295: 2250-2253.. 129 . S.” The authors conclude that “reports of Greenland temperature changes are . Briffa.E. but “the years 2004 and 2005 were closer to normal being well below temperatures reached in the 1930s and 1940s. J.” which leads him to conclude that “the Arctic temperature data do not support the models predicting that there will be a critical future warming of the climate because of an increased concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Osborn. 2000.H. Nature 391: 678-682. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 1515-1518. 2002.G.. Goulden.. H. Cook. Deep soil temperature as proxy for surface air-temperature in a coupled model simulation of the last thousand years. F.. E.. Walsh. M. Dugmore. Jones. Bradwell. and distinct but smaller fluctuations occurred around 1825. Drinkwater. 2004. Progress in Oceanography 68: 134-151.M. D. The Little Ice Age glacier maximum in Iceland and the North Atlantic Oscillation: evidence from Lambatungnajokull. E. P.. T.they stayed generally below the values typical for the 1920-1940 period.R. Greenland warming of 1920-1930 and 1995-2005.” Chylek et al. S.” Karlén notes that “during the 50 years in which the atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased considerably. L. R. Trumbore. Boreas 35: 61-80.co2science..T..E. Reduced sensitivity of recent tree-growth to temperature at high northern latitudes. Schweingruber.Observations: Temperature Records  western Alaska. von Storch.T. Benitez-Nelson. although the temperature remains slightly below the level of the late 1930s.

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changes in air temperature. temperatures had strengthening of the SH stratospheric polar vortex declined by 0.” say Vaughan et al.22/decade). saying the correlation proved that According to Vaughan et al. and approximately 0. (2002) Antarctica has actually bucked the mean trend and report that “the maritime record on the Antarctic warmed over the same time period: the Antarctic Peninsula shelf suggests close chronological Peninsula/Bellingshausen Sea region.” And so it is. they state.” This finding.” ring of westerly winds encircling Antarctica has A second major blow to the CO2-induced global recently been spending more time in its strong-wind warming hypothesis comes from the contradiction phase. (2000). Many jumped on the global warming bandwagon. the authors say the positive trend in the Antarctic cooling between 1966 and 2000.900 years ago suggest the Prince Gustav Channel emissions would therefore intensify global warming. noting that a positive polarity of polar regions. (2001). He associated with the trend toward a cooling and found that for all of Antarctica.Climate Change Reconsidered    temperature increase that has occurred there evidence correlation dominated much of the climate change of CO2-induced global warming? debate.” when. (2001)). “to do so recent study by Caillon et al. who report that over the 17-year period 1982According to nearly all climate models. of course there was much less CO2 considerably and newer studies with finer temporal resolution began to reveal that increases (decreases) in the air. “the “is superficial. related to changes in the lower stratosphere Comiso (2000) assembled and analyzed Antarctic (Thompson and Wallace. between observed and model-predicted Antarctic That is also the conclusion of Kwok and Comiso temperature trends of the past several decades. the East Antarctic plateau. for example.. such that the drives the climatic system during a deglaciation. toward the high-index polarity of the SAM.7°C per decade. one region of In another slant on the issue. But is the 132 . during the stratosphere’s relatively short active season respectively. demonstrated that during Glacial Termination III. not vice versa (see century increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration as Indermuhle et al. just as positive polarity” that they describe as “remarkable. that has been put forth by Thompson and Solomon In spite of the decades-long cooling that has been (2002). “rapid changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration caused regional warming” has led to the loss of seven ice shelves in this region during the past 50 years. without offering a mechanism.3/decade) represents a “significant bias toward valleys occurred in the summer and autumn. however. Monnin et al. Thompson and Solomon (2002) also in November. (2003).” In coupled mode of variability of these two indices addition.08°C and 0.42°C per decade.” which is pretty much the same theory report a cooling trend for the interior of Antarctica. 2000). (2002) examined temperature trends index shifted in a negative direction.” or “confirms that CO2 is not the forcing that initially Southern Hemispheric Annular Mode.” noting that “the temperature data obtained from 21 surface stations high index polarity of the SH annular mode is and from infrared satellites operating since 1979. This dramatic rate of cooler temperatures over much of the continent. they note that sediment cores from 6. ice“was absent and climate was as warm as it has been coring instrumentation and techniques had improved recently. Yoon et al.” At the same time. the SO Doran et al. the 14-year temperature decline in the dry (0.” cooling.” most of the 35-year cooling over the continent as a Kwok and Comiso additionally report that “the whole (which did not include any data from the dry tropospheric SH annular mode has been shown to be valleys) also occurred in the summer and autumn. in the authors’ words. “reflects longer term continental Together. CO2-induced 1998. observed for the continent as a whole. and that future increases However. Ice Shelf—which collapsed in this region in 1995— By the late 1990s and early 2000s. the SAM index shifted towards more positive global warming should be most evident in earth’s values (0. as the recent work of CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by Thompson and Solomon (2002) suggests that much of the warming can be explained by “a systematic bias 800 ± 200 years. A the cause of the recent regional warming. indicating “a in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica over the drift toward a spatial pattern with warmer period 1986 to 2000.000 to in the air’s CO2 content due to anthropogenic CO2 1. in air temperature precede increases (decreases) in Although it is tempting to cite the twentieth atmospheric CO2 content. reporting a cooling rate of temperatures around the Antarctic Peninsula. but analyses of Antarctic near-surface the SAM index “is associated with cold anomalies and tropospheric air temperatures contradict this over most of Antarctica with the center of action over prediction. (2002).

” In the same vein. Lyons. Clow.Y. Leventer et al.. R.. and Stocker. D.’s own paper.Observations: Temperature Records  correlation with Holocene glacial events in the Northern Hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 735-738. Brachfeld. UK. But what if the Antarctic were to warm as a result of some natural or anthropogenic-induced change in earth’s climate? What would the consequences be? For one thing. J. and Manley.C. subject/a/antarcticatemp. Khim et al. P. In fact. Kang.. Lamb.G. 2003.. The Holocene 11: 1-9. Timing of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature changes across Termination III. Leventer. as not even a warming event as dramatic as 10°C is predicted to result in a net change in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (Näslund et al... McClennen. C.. which also demonstrates the presence of the MWP in Antarctica.Y. D. Quaternary Research 58: 234-245. it would likely help to increase both the number and diversity of penguin species (Sun et al.H.. S. Variability and trends in Antarctic surface temperatures from in situ and satellite infrared measurements. The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel. Antarctic Peninsula: A Holocene palaeoenvironmental reference for the circum-Antarctic.W.. Spatial patterns of variability in Antarctic surface temperature: Connections to the South Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation. C. Dunbar. C. 2000).. A. Domack. B.011 degree of latitude per year. Journal of Climate 13: 1674-1696. Comiso.. 2000. Barnola.J. Doran.A. Brachfeld. (2002) say that “two of the most significant climatic events during the late Holocene are the Little Ice Age (LIA) and Medieval Warm Period (MWP).E.. B-K. Recent diatom record of McMurdo Sound. Palaeoecology 1: 13-37. J.. Antarctic Peninsula. G. Jouzel. S.. Combining these results with those from a previous study revealed these trends to be consistent back to at least 1978. 1988). V. Reporting on trends in a number of Southern Ocean sea ice parameters over the period 1987 to 1996.. Taylor. they found statistically significant increases in sea ice area and total sea ice extent.L. 2000). Smith et al. R. Moorhead. References Caillon.. J. 2002.. Domack.B. D. T.. Virginia. 1988.. Wall. Monnin..F. and Sjunneskog. 2000). Yoon. A. The Little Ice Age. McKay. Productivity cycles 133 . Leventer. A. C.co2science. Antarctica: Implications for the history of sea-ice extent.I. W. J. 1988. 2000. McKnight.” To this list of scientific journal articles documenting the existence of the LIA in Antarctica can now be added Khim et al. and Lipenkov.. which suggests that predictions of catastrophic coastal flooding due to the melting of the world’s polar ice sheets are way off the mark.D. Further evidence that the Antarctic as a whole is in the midst of a cooling trend comes from Watkins and Simmonds (2000). there would not be much of a problem either. Ishman. indicating the possibility of coherent climate variability in the Holocene. A.. Kang. Fountain. F. J. J.E. Nature advance online publication.. C. Leventer. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Indermuhle.P. 2000. 1965.M. J. Antarctica. E. The temperature history of Antarctica provides no evidence for the CO2-induced global warming hypothesis..M.-M. Khim. J. and Comiso. Palaeogeography. and Dunbar. as well as an increase in sea ice season length since the 1990s.php.W. P. H. 2002. Priscu.C. A. J... 1965. Yuan and Martinson (2000) report that the net trend in the mean Antarctic ice edge over the past 18 years has been an equatorward expansion of 0. Walsh. Science 299: 1728-1731.E. Geophysical Research Letters 29: 10. E. E.. 1999).” noting further that “evidence of the LIA has been found in several studies of Antarctic marine sediments (Leventer and Dunbar... Cambridge. R. Grove. Stauffer. 1996. Domack et al. S.P. as well as earlier cold and warm periods of similar intensity and duration.B. and it would also tend to increase the size and number of populations of the continent’s only two vascular plant species (Xiong et al. Chronology of the Palmer Deep site. Paleoceanography 3: 373-386.1029/2002GL015415.N. H.H. Severinghaus. 13 January 2002 (DOI 10. Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 60 to 20 kyr BP from the Taylor Dome ice core. both of which occurred globally (Lamb. And in another study of Antarctic sea ice extent.H. and Bahk. 2000.. Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response. R.1038/nature710). who analyzed region-wide changes in sea ice. A.. Kwok. Unstable climate oscillations during the Late Holocene in the Eastern Bransfield Basin.C.T. can be found at http://www. Cambridge University Press. Fritsen..   Additional information on this topic. Grove. 1996. Palaeoclimatology.. With respect to the continent’s great ice sheets. N. and Parsons. it argues strongly against it. 2002. 1988.

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Taken together. contributing to a rise in global sea level. Alaska and northwest USA and southwest Canada. sea ice. Qin. Sea-level Rise Introduction The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) alleges that “recent decreases in ice mass are correlated with rising surface air temperatures. 4. 2007-I. H. Precipitation. Glaciers Model studies indicate that CO2-induced global warming will result in significant melting of earth’s glaciers. and sea level depend on many factors other than temperature and are poor measuring devices for global warming. precipitation.” and more specifically that “the late 20th-century glacier wastage likely has been a response to post-1970 warming. Sea Ice. Cambridge.2.1.3.. Sea Ice. fluctuations of glacier mass. M. S. Solomon. Streamflow 4. the largest contributions to sea level rise came from Alaska. Precipitation.B. will melt ice—often quite slowly. The same is largely true of sea ice. Z. and sea level rise that frequently contradicts and rarely reinforces the IPCC’s claims quoted above. D. References IPCC. sea ice. and Sea Level   4. Precipitation Trends 4. are entirely irrelevant to illuminating the causes of warming. It should be obvious. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Averyt. p.. Sea Ice 4. Therefore. Glaciers 4.. Strongest mass losses per unit area have been observed in Patagonia. and Miller. but apparently is not. we examine global trends and data from . Marquis.. K. 2007-I. the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica have very likely been contributing to sea level rise over 1993 to 2003 [italics in the original]” (IPCC.4   Observations: Glaciers.1. UK.. (Eds. Chen. and sea levels: all fluctuate in response to processes that are unrelated to CO2. and therefore cannot be taken either as signs of anthropogenic global warming or of climate disasters that may be yet to come. Glaciers around the world are continuously advancing and retreating. precipitation. Because of the corresponding large areas.) Cambridge University Press. 135 This chapter summarizes the extensive scientific literature on glaciers. In this section. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. while interesting. and Sea Level 4. claims that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is occurring that are backed by such accounts are simply confusing the consequences of warming with the causes—a common logical error. whether anthropogenic or natural. 339).5. that such facts as melting glaciers and disappearing Arctic sea ice. Any significant warming. Manning. In addition. precipitation patterns.4.. M. Tignor. the Arctic and the Asian high mountains.L. with no evidence of a trend that can be linked to CO2 concentrations in the air. M. Observations: Glaciers.

W.. during a time when the atmosphere experienced the bulk of the increase in its CO2 Braithwaite. and Thomas. Bjornsson. the Arctic. 2001. regions of the world remain unsampled. the Storglaciaren in northern Sweden.’ but there are The full story must begin with a recognition of just also regions with positive balances. of the Little Ice Age. 2000. can be found at widespread and major glacier advances occurred http://www.S. Grove.Climate Change Reconsidered    each year. Furthermore.1. late-1800s and many glaciers returned to positions characteristic Braithwaite. Additional information “unprecedented” warming of the latter part of the on this topic. “there are several regions with highly 4.H. measurements of 246 glaciers from around the world that were made between 1946 and 1995. negative for shrinkage) exist for more whole world are combined for this most recent period than a single year for only slightly more than 200 of time..” Within Europe. Global negative mass balances in agreement with a public perception of ‘the glaciers are melting.” Although these Arctic glaciers continue to R.. Thereafter. 2001). how few glacier data exist. highlights “one of the most however. R. just over 80 other tales of global warming. Holmlund. which is hardly what one would expect in Africa. important problems for mass-balance glaciology” and actually becoming positive over about the last decade demonstrates the “sad fact that many glacierized (Braithwaite and Zhang. B. Mass balance data (which would be positive equilibrium for 1980-95.” suggesting we really know very made by the IPCC that most claciers are retreating or little about the true state of most of the world’s melting.000 (42 percent) generally shrinking. Lefauconnier. When the length of common or global trend of increasing glacier melt in record increases to five years. R. Glaciers That Speak in Tongues and with the longest mass balance histories. 2001.000 glaciers for example.D. Natural History 110 (8): 60percent displayed negative mass balances over their 69. 2002. have a positive trend. J..J. “almost 80% of the mass balance time series also A.J. Dowdeswell et al. This lack of glacial data. or only Global data on glaciers do not support claims poorly sampled. In many instances the rate years of international monitoring. who reviewed and analyzed mass balance heading Glaciers. Progress in Physical of glacier retreat has not increased over the past 70 Geography 26: 76-95. In an analysis of Arctic glacier mass balance. and South America. Journal of Glaciology 45: including reviews of glaciers not twentieth century. Quaternary Research 48: 1-14. during a period of colder global temperature known as the Little Ice Age (Broecker. he notes that “Alpine glaciers are presently known to exist.L.. can be found at http://www. years.” And when results for the for growth. P. Yet they additionally report that Dowdeswell. toward a less negative mass R. Koerner. Additional information on this topic.. this number drops to recent years. its mass balance began to trend upward.php. and glaciers in the Caucasus are close to 2000).1. glaciers. 1997. climate. they are losing smaller amounts 136 . Many records indicate widespread glacial retreat as References temperatures began to rise in the mid. discussed here. Hagen.M.” 115. the number drops to 79. North the face of what some incorrectly call the America. only 42 glaciers for the first 15 years of its 50-year record it exhibited qualify. J. 2000).. as they have probably done since the end recent climate change. years of record is used as a cutoff.. in the words of a negative mass balance of little trend. Glazovsky. become available. W. C. only 67. Braithwaite notes that “there is no obvious (Braithwaite and Zhang. Ommanney. (1997) found that of the 18 glaciers Broecker.. Relationships between interannual variability of glacier mass balance and content. 2000). periods of record.co2science. and Glacier mass balance: the first 50 of pre-Little Ice Age times.A. According to Braithwaite.. including reviews of newer publications as they During the fifteenth through nineteenth centuries. J. balance. Antarctica.F. Similar results have been reported by Braithwaite co2science. Europe. growing. Braithwaite and Zhang. The mass balance of circum-Arctic glaciers and lose mass. H. Scandinavian glaciers are have been inventoried to any degree (Kieffer et al. if 10 record of all. Harrison.O. and if both winter and summer mass balances are As for the glacier with the longest mass balance required. Y.php under the (2002). Of the 160.

Irion.” and that “East African long-term temperature records of the twentieth century show diverse trends and do not exhibit a uniform warming signal (King’uyu et al.. D. New eyes in the sky measure glaciers and ice sheets.. Haeberli. Engeset. Brown. e..” and “monthly mean air temperatures only vary slightly around the annual mean of -7. J.. L. J. Bindschadler. E.. Barry. including the aforementioned senators. O. and paleolimnological data (Verschuren et al.. however.. Johansson.... applied a radiation model to an idealized representation of the 1880 ice cap of Kilimanjaro. Molg et al. 2000). say “all data indicate that modern East African climate experienced an abrupt and marked drop in air humidity around 1880. Scambos... J. as has been demonstrated for the region by Kruss (1983) and Hastenrath (1984). approximately the same time the planet began to recover from the several-hundred-year cold spell of the Little Ice Age.. Ruyter de Wildt. 2002). D.” In further investigating this phenomenon. A.. J. M. he attributed the decline of glacial ice atop the mount during the intervening years to CO2induced global warming. 2001). Maisch.. Sea Ice.M. F.. Raup. which specifically addresses the unique configuration of the summit’s vertical ice 137 . they report “there is no evidence of a sudden change in temperature at the end of the 19th century (Hastenrath.. which allowed for no “wiggle room” whatsoever. Displaying a second set of photos taken from the same vantage point in 1970 and 1999—the first depicting “a 20-foot-high glacier” and the second “only a trace of ice”—she said that in those pictures “we have evidence in the most dramatic way possible of the effects of 29 years of global warming. Copland. Koenig.” in the words of a trio of glaciologists (Molg et al. 4. Ohmura.” and they add that the resultant “strong reduction in precipitation at the end of the 19th century is the main reason for modern glacier recession in East Africa. Solomina. Mount Kenya (Kenya). a number of people... Rivera. Kargel. Shroder. declared that the ice fields retreated because of the rising temperatures.” In spite of the absolute certitude with which the two senators expressed their views on the subject... N. Cohen. they say “since February 2000 an automatic weather station has operated on a horizontal glacier surface at the summit’s Northern Icefield. J. Thompson et al. M. 2001). Rau. 1987. Arizona Senator John McCain described his affection for the writings of Ernest Hemingway. Antoninetti. M. V. Rignot. M. 1984. 2001. calling this attribution a fact “that cannot be refuted by any scientist. Kenya). K. Modern glacier recession on Kilimanjaro began around 1880. Paul. R. 2001. M. Bamber. Scharfen. The initiation of the “Little Ice Age” in regions round the North Atlantic... “The Snows of Kilimanjaro. and Young... B. W. and Sea Level  Grove. Fitzharris. D. water balance models of lakes (Nicholson and Yin. Wohlleben. 2000. M.. J. 2001). A. As a result. Braun.. Van der Veen.. 2003a).2. Bishop. showing photos of the magnificent landmark taken in 1993 and 2000. American Geophysical Union 81: 265. N. who noted that “glacierization in East Africa is limited to three massifs close to the equator:   Kilimanjaro (Tanzania. encouraged in this contention by a few reports in the scientific literature (Alverson et al. Hoelzle.. 270271. Kaab. Hagen. Konovalov. 2001). Thompson. DueHagen.g... Hall.. A... H. and Rwenzori (Zaire.” With respect to Kilimanjaro. 2003b). M. 2001. T. calculating the spatial extent and geometry of the ice cap for a number of subsequent points in time and finding that “the basic evolution in spatial distribution of ice bodies on the summit is modeled well. In that part of the world. EOS: Transactions.” Molg et al.S. D. J. F.” New York Senator Hillary Clinton echoed Senator McCain’s sentiments. Hay et al. G. is “highly simplified. B.” as it considerably reduces glacier mass balance accumulation. both of them were wrong. MacKinnon. Schaper.S. Reeh..” All three sites experienced strong ice field recession over the past century or more.... Georges and Kaser (2002)] never rise above the freezing point.. I. K. and air temperatures [measured by ventilated sensors.1°C. however.V. 2000.... Fujita. R. Africa On the floor of the U.” which makes it pretty difficult to understand how ice could melt under such conditions...” The model they used. wind and current observations in the Indian Ocean and their relationship to East African rainfall (Hastenrath.. 2002). M.” Then. So what caused the ice fields of Kilimanjaro to recede so steadily for so many years? Citing “historical accounts of lake levels (Hastenrath. Molg et al... R. Kieffer.1.. T.Observations: Glaciers. they note that “increased incoming shortwave radiation due to decreases in cloudiness— both effects of the drier climatic conditions—plays a decisive role for glacier retreat by increasing ablation. Nicholson and Yin. This view of the subject. Uganda). In addition. as demonstrated for Mount Kenya and Rwenzori (Kruss and Hastenrath. especially his famous short story. Senate in 2004. Precipitation. Climatic Change 48: 5382.O.

Cullen et al. Hastenrath. conclude that all relevant highest glacial recession rates on Kilimanjaro “observations and facts” clearly indicate that “occurred in the first part of the twentieth century. is the Consequently. 2002. that the revealed. “the dominant reasons for this strong recession in Kruss and Hastenrath (1987). They also say.” significant. concluded that “modern temperature-driven turbulent exchange of sensible glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro is much more complex heat.” which is walls. 1992.. Wagnon et al. (2003) for the Bolivian Cordillera recession trends over the past century. 1996) and increased availability of take-home message of their study is essentially the shortwave radiation due to decreases in cloudiness same as that of Kaser et al. and Molg et al. Soden and Schroeder. Kaser (2003a) for the Rwenzori massif (East Africa)]. in this regard. but that there has been a small Thompson et al. 2000) seem to climate variables related to air humidity prevail in play an underestimated key role in tropical highcontrolling the modern retreat [e. Hastenrath and Kruss. for Mount Kenya (East Africa). they say no Kilimanjaro.” Indeed. precipitation is the main climatic parameter governing and variability.” In addition.g. 1983. and that “positive air temperatures have temperature trends over the period 1948-2005 have not contributed to the recession process on the been observed at the approximate height of the summit. they report that Real (both South American Andes).” and that reduced Osmaston. 1880. provided “a clear indication that solar radiation controlled by surface albedo and. Molg et al. accumulation and increased ablation have 2003b].. Francou et al. (2002).” which appears to have that is presently glaciated—based on data obtained happened sometime in the latter part of the nineteenth from an automated weather station. 2004).” The and Noggler. 1984.” temperatures have not contributed to the recession both of which phenomena they relate to a dramatic process on the summit.” 2003b). which determines the reflective maintaining ice retreat on the mountain’s summit characteristics of the glacier’s surface. Molg et al.g. 1997. according to the two researchers. 1983. (2004): “Positive air (Kruss and Hastenrath. Molg et al.” and of little importance. (2004) similarly concluded that report it. governed 138 . 1997). Kaser and 1984.” directly contradicting Irion (2002) and Kilimanjaro glaciers. consequence solely of increased air temperature. who. this combination. Kaser et al.” but they add that the century. with humidity-related variables dominating “maintained the retreat until the present (Molg et al. that “detailed analyses of glacier retreat in “changes in air humidity and atmospheric moisture the global tropics uniformly reveal that changes in content (e.” drying of the regional atmosphere that occurred Two years later. 1987. Kruss and Hastenrath. Kaser et al. in their words. which they say “remains considerably smaller than simply attributable to ‘global warming only’.. there is no alternative for them “other than to glacier that comprises the northern ice field of Kibo— continuously retreat once their vertical margins are the only one of the East African massif’s three peaks exposed to solar radiation. and changes in from the terms accounting for net radiation. see the decrease in the region’s specific humidity over this recession of Kilimanjaro’s glaciers as “a direct period. (2006) report that around 1880 and the ensuing dry climate that “all ice bodies on Kilimanjaro have retreated subsequently prevailed throughout the twentieth drastically between 1912-2003.” Buttressing their findings is the fact.g.. they say it is “a process driven by a complex Molg and Hardy conclude that “modern glacier combination of changes in several different climatic retreat on Kilimanjaro and in East Africa in general parameters [e. Kaser and mountain climate (Broecker. Kruss. 2003b). “climatological processes other than air temperature with the most recent retreat rates (1989-2003) smaller control the ice recession in a direct manner” on than in any other interval.. as they Kaser et al.Climate Change Reconsidered    by the variation in net shortwave radiation. Georges. 2001.. 2001.” Noting that all Georges (1997) for the Peruvian Cordillera Blanca glaciers in equatorial East Africa exhibited strong and Francou et al.. the six Kilimanjaro. thus.” In terms of why glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro In a subsequent study of the ice fields of was so dramatic over the twentieth century. 2003.. and Hastenrath (1995) modern times are reduced precipitation (Kruss. [was] initiated by a drastic reduction in precipitation 1987. Kaser and at the end of the nineteenth century (Hastenrath. 1987. Much less plateau in the drier climate since ca. in their words. Molg and Hardy (2004) derived an researchers note that for the mountain’s plateau energy balance for the horizontal surface of the glaciers. Kruss (1983). Kruss and Hastenrath. This work century. that “the main energy “vertical wall retreat that governs the retreat of exchange at the glacier-atmosphere interface results plateau glaciers is irreversible.

2002. the twentieth century retreat of Kilimanjaro’s plateau glaciers is a long-term response to what we could call “relict climate change” that likely occurred in the late nineteenth century. Climatic Change 50: 209217. R. Larocque.L. J. 2008. Reidel. A global paleoclimate observing system.I. D. Hardy. Cullen et al. the misguided rushes to judgment that have elevated Kilimanjaro’s predicted demise by CO2-induced global warming to iconic status should give everyone pause to more carefully evaluate the evidence. C... 2001. T. 1992.R.co2science.” Two more recent studies. R. Cox. Science 291: 1690-1691. T.J.R.S. Hughes. Thompson. 16°S. G. S. Consequently. Wagnon. Molg. for many similar claims related to the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content..” In addition. 2006.. Variations of East African climate during the past two centuries. and Sea Level    twentieth century climate have not altered their continuous demise. Mendoza. Cullen. The melting snows of Kilimanjaro.. N. Hussein. Kilimanjaro glaciers: Recent areal extent from satellite data and new interpretation of observed 20th century retreat rates.E. Steffen. and Snow. G.G.” and in this regard they add that their continuing but decelerating demise could be helped along by the continuous slow decline in the air’s specific humidity. 139 . Kaser. Mote and Kaser (2007) and Duane et al.. S. Georges.. Hastenrath. Annals of Glaciology 16: 127-133. N. Duane.. J. S. International Journal of Climatology 24: 329-339. Ventilated and unventilated air temperature measurements for glacierclimate studies on a tropical high mountain site.E. Bolivia. 2001. General characteristics of temperature and humidity variability on Kilimanjaro.” and Mote and Kaser reporting that “warming fails spectacularly to explain the behavior of the glaciers and plateau ice on Africa’s Kilimanjaro massif .1029/2002JD002473.. D. P. Molg.I. 1995. and Kruss. but a lack of precipitation..J. R. Norwell. C.D. and in light of all the facts they present and the analyses they and others have conducted over many years. and Hardy. Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands.. In the case of the mountain’s slope glaciers. T.1029/2006GL027084. Antarctic. B. Arctic.D. J. 2002. Cullen et al. Tropical climate change recorded by a glacier in the central Andes during the last decades of the 20th century: Chacaltaya. and Kaser. Hastenrath. References Alverson. 1997. K.. 1984. or lack thereof. G. D. Mountain glaciers: records of atmospheric water vapor content? Global Biogeochemical Cycles 4: 589-597. 1997. Hay. Changes in the equilibrium line altitude in the tropical Cordillera Blanca (Peru) between 1930 and 1950 and their spatial variations. W.. M.F.. I. Tanzania. Glacier recession on Mount Kenya in the context of the global tropics. Briffa. Science 293: 47-49. Modern glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro as evidence of climate change: Observations and facts. USA.. P. and Hyera. Bradley. M. Hastenrath. Kaser.. and Hardy. Shanks. 2001. Francou.S.. K. Cole. Vuille. Pedersen. they report that “no footprint of multidecadal changes in areal extent of slope glaciers to fluctuations in twentieth century climate is observed. Losleben. Journal of Geophysical Research 108: 10. Nature 415: 905-909.. Stern. Precipitation. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. M.. Geophysical Research Letters 33: 10.M. subject/a/africagla.. Journal of Geophysical Research 107: 10. W. Bradley.. (2008) additionally reject the temperature-induced decline hypothesis for Kilimanjaro.1029/2002JD002503. confidently conclude that the glaciers of Kilimanjaro “are merely remnants of a past climate rather than sensitive indicators of 20th century climate change. but their ongoing demise does suggest they are still out of equilibrium. G. S. R. S. D. and Tudhope. and to a lesser extent other tropical glaciers. S. L.” which they take as evidence that the glaciers “were responding to a large prior shift in climate. Randolph.C. say that their rapid recession in the first part of the twentieth century shows they “were drastically out of equilibrium. with Duane et al. T. 2003. D. can be found at http://www. MA. Kaser. Broecker.W.R. Additional information on this topic. K. concluding that “the reasons for the rapid decline in Kilimanjaro’s glaciers are not primarily due to increased air temperatures. S..” Consequently. The Glaciers of Equatorial East Africa. J. M. and Sicart..J. and Georges. 2004.. Pepin. G.. and Alpine Research 40: 323-334. Rogers. Sea Ice. Myers. K.. Bulletin de l’Institut français d’études andines 24: 633-638. Annals of Glaciology 24: 344-349.” Clearly. D.. The dramatic retreat of Mount Kenya’s glaciers between 1963 and 1987: Greenhouse forcing. Irion.php.Observations: Glaciers.

B. Henderson. Lin. UK. G.. V. C. Mote. M. 2003a. 2000. Journal of Climate 13: 2876-2886. Mosley-Thompson. Nicholson. Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1. L. 2000.S.R. Davis. Some speculate this event could herald the “beginning of the end” of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Thompson. and Sicart..1029/2003JD003546. P.. Recent trends of minimum and maximum surface temperatures over Eastern Africa. International Journal of Climatology 7: 493-505.” And since glacier dynamics are typically driven by phenomena operating on time scales of hundreds to thousands of 140 .. T. Nature 403: 410-414. however.J. S. V. and Osmaston. Their results suggested the mass balance of the catchment region was not significantly different from zero. Zeitschrift fur Gletscherkunde and Glazialgeologie 19: 43-60.. Wagnon. Kruss. 1996. Journal of Geophysical Research 109: 10. Rignot (1998) employed satellite radar measurements of the grounding line of Pine Island Glacier from 1992 to 1996 to determine whether it was advancing or retreating. Rignot says the questions the study raises concerning the long-term stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet “cannot be answered at present. G. Cambridge University Press. G. Hardy. and Yin. Climatic Change 48: 387-398. Tropical Glaciers. Antarctica In early November 2001. By combining these velocity data with information on ice thickness and snow accumulation rates. Ablation and associated energy balance of a horizontal glacier surface on Kilimanjaro. The shrinking glaciers of Kilimanjaro: Can global warming be blamed? American Scientist 95: 318-325. Kaser. G. Georges. 4. Ogallo.R. P. Laird. East Africa. P.. K. and Kaser. Zagorodnov. and Beer. 2001. 2000. Solarradiation-maintained glacier recession on Kilimanjaro drawn from combined ice-radiation geometry modeling. they were able to calculate an approximate mass balance for the glacier within an uncertainty of approximately 30 percent.” In a subsequent study. This event was of great interest to scientists because the Pine Island Glacier is currently the fastest-moving glacier in Antarctica and the continent’s largest discharger of ice. K..G. B. Francou. E. P.K. X.3 kilometers per year over the four-year period of the study.. after which they used the data to develop a velocity map that revealed a system of tributaries that channel ice from the catchment area into the fast-flowing glacier.3. (2001) used satellite altimetry and interferometry to determine the rate of change of thickness of Pine Island Glacier’s entire drainage basin between 1992 and 1999. Climate change in East Africa: A numerical simulation from the 100 years of terminus record at Lewis Glacier. Ribstein. T. 2002. and Cumming. and Schroeder.100 years. International Journal of Climatology 23: 291-303. L. a large iceberg separated from West Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier. Journal of Climate 13: 3337-3341.E. D.D. 2004..N. S. Stenoien and Bentley (2000) mapped the catchment region of Pine Island Glacier using radar altimetry and synthetic aperture radar interferometry. P..W. 2003b. B. The contribution of increased incoming shortwave radiation to the retreat of the Rwenzori Glaciers. Bolivia.-N. J. 2007. The data indicated a retreat rate of 1. Decadal variations in tropical water vapor: a comparison of observations and a model simulation.R. Soden. Journal of Geophysical Research 108: 10. Molg. H.A. and Noggler. during the 20th century. The role of radiation geometry in the climate response of Mount Kenya’s glaciers. Mashiotta. 1983. Scientific studies.H. G. S..1029/2003JD004338. during the 1997/98 El Niño year. Anomalous heat and mass budget of Glaciar Zongo. P. S. Mount Kenya. determining that the grounded glacier thinned by up to 1. D. 2001. T. and Anyamba. H... Cambridge. Mikhalenko.1.A. J. suggest otherwise. Kilimanjaro ice core records: Evidence of Holocene climate change in tropical Africa. Molg.F.6 meters per year over this period. E. 1987. King’uyu. They note “the thinning cannot be explained by short-term variability in accumulation and must result from glacier dynamics.E. and Hardy..M. Shepherd et al. Kruss.2 ± 0. B.D. D. T. Molg. D. and Kaser.R.E. Rainfall conditions in Equatorial East Africa during the nineteenth century as inferred from the record of Lake Victoria. Verschuren. Journal of Glaciology 47: 21-28. and Kaser. Brecher. Zeitschrift fur Gletscherkunde and Glazialgeologie 32: 109-117.R. Science 298: 589-593. and Hastenrath.A. Glacier fluctuations in the Rwenzori Range (East Africa) during the 20th century—a preliminary report. Because the study period was so short.. 2002.Climate Change Reconsidered    Kaser. part 1: Horizontal reference surfaces. Hardy.

” which they further note “has been documented in glacial records as far afield as the Southern Alps of New Zealand (Wardle. Turning to other glaciers.. O. They report a number of similar observations by other investigators. (1997) interpreted the Siple Dome [Antarctica] glaciochemical record as indicating enhanced atmospheric circulation intensity at AD ~1400. which runs parallel to the coast of the western Ross Sea from McMurdo Sound north to Granite Harbor.co2science. Antarctica. They also evaluated more recent changes in snow and ice cover based on aerial photography and observations carried out since the late 1950s. Björck et al. followed by significant advances during the intervening Little Ice Age.. Abandoned penguin rookeries as Holocene paleoclimatic indicators in Antarctica..M.” And if that happens? They say they “estimate the net contribution to eustatic sea level to be 6 mm. Ellis-Evans.. Palaeogeography. Antarctic Science 6: 497-505.” This means that for each century of the foreseeable future. 1994a. K. G. this observation would argue against twentieth century warming being the cause of the thinning. they report that “farther north. 1999).” They rightly conclude that the glacier had to have advanced in the past several hundred years. although they note its eastern margin has retreated in the past 50 years. which has been correlated with the ‘Little Ice Age’ (Birkenmajer.” Hall and Denton report that it “overlaps in time with the readvance phase known in the Alps [of Europe] as the ‘Little Ice Age’.. Hall and Denton (2002) mapped the distribution and elevation of surficial deposits along the southern Scott Coast of Antarctica in the vicinity of the Wilson Piedmont Glacier. Baroni. within the past few hundred years. and Orombelli. 1995).” which also suggests that a long-term phenomenon of considerable inertia must be at work. Palaeoecology 121: 195-220. Hakansson. also say they could “detect no change in the rate of ice thinning across the glacier over [the] 7-year period. Additional information on this topic. they conclude that evidence from the Ross Sea area suggests “lateHolocene climatic deterioration and glacial advance (within the past few hundred years) and twentieth century retreat. The chronology of the raised beaches was determined from more than 60 14C dates of organic materials they had previously collected from hand-dug excavations (Hall and Denton. G. followed by twentieth-century retreat at some localities along the Scott Coast.” In subject/a/antarcticagla. Geology 22: 23-26.6 meters per year—continues unabated? Shepherd et al. C. 1973.. and Orombelli.” They further note that “Kreutz et al. C. Olsson. and de Lirio. Humlum. Sea Ice. 1994b. 1988. S. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. we could expect global mean sea level to rise by one millimeter … about the thickness of a common paper clip.” In speaking of the significance of the “recent advance of the Wilson Piedmont Glacier. 2001). Lichenometric dating of raised marine beaches at Admiralty Bay.” Summarizing these and other findings. Martinez de Pison et al.” as Hall and Denton put it— “the Wilson Piedmont Glacier was still less extensive than it is now. Björck. they note there was “an advance of at least one kilometer of the Hell’s Gate Ice Shelf .php References Baroni. can be found at http://www. 1996. Birkenmajer. H. Precipitation.” And they report that Baroni and Orombelli (1994b) “documented post-fourteenth century advance of a glacier near Edmonson’s Point. similar to that in Greenland during the ‘Little Ice Age’ (O’Brien et al. and Sea Level    years. state that “if the trunk continues to lose mass at the present rate it will be entirely afloat within 600 years. 1996). West Antarctica). Shepherd et al. Near the end of the Medieval Warm Period—“as late as 890 14C yr BP. Late Holocene paleoclimate records from lake sediments on James Ross Island. 141 . Black. Holocene glacier variations in the Terra Nova Bay area (Victoria Land. the temperate land mass closest to the Ross Sea region. S.. C. What if the rate of glacier thinning—1.. Antarctica). 1996. Palaeoclimatology.” This result and the others they cite make it clear that glacial activity on Antarctica has followed the pattern of millennialscale variability that is evident elsewhere in the world: recession to positions during the Medieval Warm Period that have not yet been reached in our day. King George Island (South Shetland Islands.” In summarizing the results of their work. Clapperton and Sugden. 1981. 1981.. J. Hall and Denton say “the Wilson Piedmont Glacier appears to have undergone advance at approximately the same time as the main phase of the ‘Little Ice Age’.Observations: Glaciers. glaciers in the South Shetland Islands adjacent to the Antarctic Peninsula underwent a late-Holocene advance. Bulletin de l’Academie Polonaise des Sciences 29: 119-127. Citing evidence collected by Baroni and Orombelli (1994a).

and Corr. curves for the southern Scott Coast..A. Journal advance and retreat over the past 7. Can a Little Ice Age Climate Signal Be unprecedented in the past millennium. J. as the planet emerged from of Holocene climate as reconstructed from a Greenland ice the depths of the Little Ice Age. B. Mayewski. The Holocene 12: 619-627. J. a priori. (1997). In fact. Over of Quaternary Science 14: 641-650. Variations of the glaciers of Westland These observations suggest that Arctic glaciers National Park and the Hooker Range.” Then came three major intervals of Little Ice Age glacial advance: the early fifteenth century. 1998. say “there is no compelling indication of increasingly negative balance conditions which 4. Arctic might. Dowdeswell et al.A. 150 to 200 m below present values. S. 1988. Science 277: 1294-1296. Science 270: 1962-1964. Antarctica. M. Meese. Wardle. Mayewski. they are twentieth century. L. Dowdeswell et al. During these very cold periods. B. Twickler. 1200. were studied by core.1.H. K. and Sugden.J.A.. 2000. when approximately two-thirds of losing smaller amounts each year. 1996. E.000 years.J. If the models are correct.J. Holocene history of the general retreat during the Medieval Warm Period that Wilson Piedmont Glacier along the southern Scott Coast. Whitlow.E. Meeker. M. 1973.H. 2001. E. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: of the Little Ice Age. Serrano. they Computer simulations of global climate change have report that “almost 80 percent of the mass balance long indicated the world’s polar regions should show time series also have a positive trend.. E.S.. Pine Island islands indicate that the generally negative glacier Glacier. Inland thinning of Pine Island Glacier.” 5A: 23-27. and Bentley. Clapperton. Quaternary comprehensive research of Holocene glaciation. as they have probably be especially evident in the second half of the done since the end of the Little Ice Age. New Zealand. S. emerging from the coldest part of the past H. Fast recession of a West Antarctic negative mass balances over the periods of their glacier.Climate Change Reconsidered    Black.D. Science 281: 549-550. New relative sea-level Kenai Peninsula and Yakutat Bay. The mass balance records of the 18 Arctic O’Brien.F. G. New Zealand Journal of Botany 11: 349-388. and Denton.J. D. P. Arche. C.S.D.. we examine historic trends in Arctic Thesis.” Quite to the contrary..D. A.4. Their analysis showed that more than 80 percent of the glaciers displayed Rignot.I. A. 1997. Calkin et al.D. D. University of Maine. observation. and Whitlow.. and Denton.L. J.761-21. West millennium.D. as would be expected for glaciers Shepherd.” Science Reviews 7: 195-198. the scientists report that Antarctica. Twickler. glaciers with the longest observational histories D. there was a Hall. as Alaskan Martinez de Pison.I. BAS GEOMAP extensions. along the northernmost Gulf of Alaska between the Hall.M.” Hence. Mansley. Wingham.A. anthropogenic CO2 emissions was much less than it has been from 1950 onward. the most recent of those seven millennia. L.. the modern-era rise in atmospheric CO2 occurred and earth’s temperature supposedly rose to a level 142 . the Kreutz. C. In this Detected in the Southern Alps of New Zealand? MS subsection.R. “ice-core records from the Canadian High Arctic Stenoien. Meeker. changes in atmospheric circulation during the Little Ice glacier equilibrium-line altitudes were depressed from Age. G.. these signs should glaciers continue to lose mass. P. lasted for “at least a few centuries prior to A. Complexity subsequent to this time. Science 291: 862-864. are not experiencing any adverse effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.R. glacier behavior to determine the credibility of current climate models with respect to their polar predictions. and the last half of the M. 2001. P. Bipolar nineteenth century.” when the magnitude of 21. and Pittalwala. Nevertheless. 1999.779. 2002. S. middle seventeenth century.. and Lopezglaciers “reached their Holocene maximum Martinez. toward a less the first and severest signs of CO2-induced global negative mass balance. Antarctica: evidence (2001) report there were several periods of glacial for Holocene deglaciation of the western Ross Sea.I. I. although most Arctic warming.. 1995. be expected from anthropogenically induced global warming. Antarctica: A study of the catchment using mass balances observed over the past 50 years have interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements and probably been typical of Arctic glaciers since the end radar altimetry.. Glacial geomorphology.L. Holocene glacier In a review of “the most current and fluctuations in South America and Antarctica.

5°C to -4. however. this glacier had a length of about 14. Their study showed a significant and accelerated postLittle Ice Age glacial retreat in the first and second decades of the twentieth century.75 km. Sea Ice. who indicate there has been an expansion of glaciers in the European Arctic over the past few decades.0°C. while winter temperatures were 2. 143 . and Sea Level  Additional evidence that the Arctic’s glaciers are not responding to human-induced warming comes from the studies of Zeeberg and Forman (2001) and Mackintosh et al. (2002). and during the next 50 years. for example. Rebounding rapidly. it began to retreat. who concentrated on the 300-year history of the Solheimajokull outlet glacier on the southern coast of Iceland.Observations: Glaciers. the glacier returned to its 1705 position by 1794.” which change. show summer temperatures were 0.” which they describe as a “development towards cooler conditions in the Arctic” that “may explain why the Little Ice Age glacier advance in Svalbard usually represents the Holocene maximum glacier extension.” Other glacier observations that run counter to climate model predictions are discussed by Mackintosh et al.” Then. after which the glacier began a slow retreat that continued to about 1932. For the four decades since 1961. are “counter to warming of the Eurasian Arctic predicted for the twenty-first century by climate models.” With respect to the Longyearbreen glacier. Zeeberg and Forman analyzed twentieth century changes in glacier terminus positions on north Novaya Zemlya—a Russian island located between the Barents and Kara Seas in the Arctic Ocean— providing a quantitative assessment of the effects of temperature and precipitation on glacial mass balance. in their words. The current position of the outlet glacier terminus is by no means unusual. particularly for the winter season. “represents the most pronounced increase in MAAT documented anywhere in the world during the instrumental period. In 1705. the region’s glaciers had experienced between 75 percent to 100 percent of their net twentieth century retreat. even now. at a time when atmospheric CO2 concentrations are higher than they have likely been for millions of years. In fact. It is also interesting to note that the glacier has been growing in length since about 1970.” In another study of the Arctic. In reviewing what was already known about the region. Thereafter.” and they say that “the meteorological setting of non-surging Longyearbreen suggest this example of late-Holocene glacier growth represents a widespread phenomenon in Svalbard and in adjoining Arctic regions. Humlum et al. Both of these observations are at odds with what the IPCC claims about the strong warming power of atmospheric CO2 enrichment. weather stations on Novaya Zemlya. Precipitation. report that “the recent advance (1970-1995) resulted from a combination of cooling and enhancement of precipitation. whereupon it began to rapidly expand. they report that “from 1957 to 1968. it is about midway   between its maximum and minimum positions of the past three centuries. These observations.8 km. Svalbard and “adjoining Arctic regions” are experiencing some of the lowest temperatures of the entire Holocene or current interglacial. their work reveals it “has increased in length from about 3 km to its present size of about 5 km during the last c. by 1740 it had grown to 15. reaching a minimum length of 13.3 km by 1995.2 km in length. both of which climatic transitions were totally out of line with what climate models suggest should have occurred. This maximum length was maintained for the next half-century.8°C colder than they were over that earlier period.2 km in 1783. followed by a more gradual increase towards the end of the twentieth century. (2005) evaluated climate dynamics and their respective impacts on high-latitude glaciers for the Archipelago of Svalbard.3 to 2. By 1952. (2002). the authors say. MAAT dropped about 4°C. the recession of more than half of the glaciers stopped. only to be followed by a nearly equivalent temperature drop four decades later. when its length was approximately 14. Humlum et al. with temperatures rising more rapidly in the early 1920s than has been documented anywhere else before or since. 1100 years. growing to 14. report that “a marked warming around 1920 changed the mean annual air temperature (MAAT) at sea level within only 5 years from about -9. focusing on Spitsbergen (the Archipelago’s main island) and the Longyearbreen glacier located in its relatively dry central region at 78°13’N latitude.3 to 0. These glacial stabilizations and advances were attributed by the authors to observed increases in precipitation and/or decreases in temperature.8 km about 1970.5°C colder than they were over the prior 40 years.” Climate change in Svalbard over the twentieth century was a rollercoaster ride. reaching a second minimumlength value of approximately 13. Mackintosh et al. while many tidewater glaciers actually began to advance. Then it wasted away more rapidly. by 1820 it equaled its 1740 length. The current location of the terminus of the Longyearbreen glacier suggests that.

Quaternary Research 48: 1-14.E.H. A. J. tephrostratigraphy to date glacial landforms created R..A.L. A. can be found at http://www. documented by subglacial relict during periods of overall retreat. the two records need not be considered inconsistent with 144 .. The Little Ice Age glacier maximum in Iceland and the North Atlantic Oscillation: evidence from Lambatungnajokull. (2006) examined glacier recessions in the over the past 200 years reflects the climatic changes Swiss Alps over the past ten thousand years based on that have occurred in southeast Iceland and the wider radiocarbon-derived ages of materials found in region. J. T. (2005) for the Great Aletsch Glacier. Dugmore. Harrison... Fjordheim. Holocene Bradwell et al.5. Holmlund. for the phenomenon.. and Flaajokull. Joerin et al.... W. record of reconstructed glacier-front fluctuations at Holocene 11: 161-175. nature.. Europe Skalafellsjokull. D. and Heinemeier. 2001. Wiles. they determined that Additional information on this topic.” including Skaftafellsjokull. and Barclay. using Dowdeswell.O. J. Hormes. C. 2006. and Hubbard. B. J. of the major glacier recessions in the Swiss Alps occurred between about 1.M.C.co2science... retreat since the 1980s.” Thereafter. 2002.” Zeeberg.D. Bradwell et al.1.400 and 1. the last References Bradwell. In fact. glacier extent of the ‘Little Ice Age’. southeast Iceland. D. Results indicated that “there is a particularly close Humlum.. Dugmore. The Holocene 15: 3961930 and 1950 this relationship is striking.’s findings suggest that twentieth focusing on subfossil remains of wood and peat. including glacier recessions have been decreasing in frequency reviews of newer publications as they become since approximately 7..H.L. 1997. Late-Holocene the rate of ice-front recession of Lambatungnajokull glacier growth in Svalbard..J. O. century summer air temperature in southeast Iceland Combining their results with earlier data of a similar and the wider region peaked in the 1930s and 1940s. G.J. 4. 2005. K. The mass balance of circum-Arctic glaciers and recent climate change.’s data.J. Fjallsjokull.. Jania. as different as one could imagine from the claim that Joerin et al. since 3. Lefauconnier. where the IPCC claims CO2reverberated throughout glacial and interglacial induced global warming should be earliest and most periods as far back in time as scientists have searched strongly expressed..N. (2006) examined the link between coastal glaciation of Alaska. Changes in glacier The researchers also report that “the 20th-century extent on north Novaya Zemlya in the twentieth century. according to the data of Holzhauser et al. say that given the uncertainty of the radiocarbon dates. when retreat averaged 20 m per Holocene climatic changes in Iceland: evidence from year.S. and Forman. A. they find “the pattern of glacier fluctuations of Lambatungnajokull Joerin et al. Glazovsky. they say the retreat “slowed in the modeling glacier length fluctuations at Solheimajokull. correspondence between summer air temperature and Hansen. Quaternary Science Reviews late Holocene fluctuations of Lambatungnajokull (an 20: 449-461. and Sugden. non-surging. J.E.F. Ommanney. 1960s. B.” Third.000 years ago. outlets of southern Vatnajokull. Lambatungnajokull compares well with those of other similar-sized. A. 1930s and 1940s. glacier fluctuations and using lichenometry and R. according to Joerin et al. Boreas 35: 61-80. and especially available. report that “ice-front recession was greatest during the Mackintosh. Bjornsson. by the glacier over the past four centuries. This thermal behavior is about Holocene. A.” once again demonstrating that two millennia. O. first report discovering that “alpine the warming of the globe over the last two decades of glacier recessions occurred at least 12 times during the twentieth century was unprecedented over the past the Holocene. S.” proglacial fluvial sediments of subglacial origin. H. and Thomas.php.200 years ago.” They also 407.” and that “between vegetation and living soil microbes.Climate Change Reconsidered    Calkin. Second. 2001.” and they report “there has been little overall Quaternary International 91: 39-52. but between 1200 and 800 years ago. Hagen. outlet glacier of the Vatnajokull ice cap of southeast Iceland) and variations in climate.200 years ago. Especially is this so for a highmillennial-scale oscillation of climate has northern-latitude region.L. P. geomorphological evidence to reconstruct patterns of A. Of this discrepancy. P. they then constructed a master chronology of and was followed by a cooling that persisted through Swiss glacier fluctuations over the course of the the end of the century. “culminating in the maximum subject/a/arcticgla. Elberling.

5.” while “there is no obvious common or global trend of increasing glacier melt. Not all European glaciers. If we compute the mean rate-of-rise of the air’s CO2 content from the start of the record to about 1950. D’Orefice et al.1. “Scandinavian glaciers [have been] growing.1. and Sea Level  each other.2. Moving to northern Europe. for example. Linderholm et al.” Fifty years of mass balance data from the storied Storglaciaren of northwestern Sweden also demonstrate a trend reversal in the late twentieth century.1. Hormes et al. we see that between 1950 and 1970 the rate-of-rise of the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration increased by more than five-fold. suggesting that it represents northern Swedish glaciers. whereupon the glacier began to experience a more rapid area reduction that continued. From the first available information on the glacier’s surface area in 1794. Whereas the mean rate-of-rise of the air’s CO2 concentration over the last half-century of Storglaciaren mass balance data is fully 15 times greater than what it was over the first half-century of mass balance data (and some 40 times greater if the first and last quarter-centuries are considered). Also in the Swiss Alps. Ghiacciaio del Calderone. According to Braithwaite and Zhang (2000). There is no compelling evidence that this 14decade-long glacial decline has had anything to do with the air’s CO2 content. have experienced continuous declines since the end of the Little Ice Age. and that their rate of shrinkage was also not . Huss et al. the changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration experienced over the same time period. Braithwaite (2002) reports that for the period 1980-1995. (2008) examined various ice and meteorological measurements made between 1865 and 2006 in an effort to compute the yearly mass balances of four glaciers. (2000) assembled and analyzed a wealth of historical data to derive a history of postLittle Ice Age (LIA) shrinkage of the surface area of the southernmost glacier of Europe.Observations: Glaciers. (2008) examined various ice and meteorological measurements made between 1865 and 2006 in the Swiss Alps to compute the yearly mass balances of four glaciers.” The results of their work are depicted in Figure 4. The most obvious conclusion to be drawn from these data is the fact that each of the four glaciers has decreased in size.   materially altered by what the IPCC calls the unprecedented warming of the past few decades. with some irregularities. It is clear that the ice loss history of the glaciers was not unduly influenced by the increase in the rate-of-rise of the air’s CO2 content that occurred between 1950 and 1970. also shown in the figure. to 1990. and glaciers in the Caucasus are close to equilibrium. The results of their computations can be seen in Figure 4. (2001) report that glaciers in the Central Swiss Alps experienced two periods of readvancement. Huss et al.1. resulting in a loss of just over half the glacier’s LIA surface area.5. Consider. 145 Figure 4. In addition. Precipitation.1. Sea Ice. where we have also plotted the contemporaneous history of the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration. however. yet there were no related increases in the long-term mass balance trends of the four glaciers. What is more. In viewing the figure. one around 1920 and another as recent as 1980. 1999). there was a very slow ice wastage that lasted until 1884. (2007) examined “the world’s longest ongoing continuous mass-balance record” of “Storglaciaren in northernmost Sweden. as evidenced by the long-term trend lines we have fit to the data.5. it should be evident that the historical increase in the air’s CO2 content has had absolutely no discernable impact on the net mass balance history of Sweden’s Storglaciaren over the past two-and-a-quarter centuries. and from about 1970 to 2006. there has been no sign of any change in the long-term trend of Storglaciaren’s net mass balance. But more important is the fact that the rate of shrinkage has not accelerated over time.” which they report “is generally well correlated to glaciers included in the regional mass balance program (Holmlund and Jansson. their presentation of the Great Aletsch Glacier data indicates the glacier’s length at about AD 1000—when there was fully 100 ppm less CO2 in the air than there is today—was just slightly less than its length in 2002.

and Jansson. R.8 km in 1970. Smiraglia. and Ventura. to which we have added the fit-by-eye descending linear relationship. Funk..5. (2005). Relationships between interannual variability of glacier mass balance and climate. in blue. Journal of Glaciology 45: 456-462.” Around 2000. More recent glacial advances have been reported in Norway. report that “the distances regained and the duration of this recent advance episode are both far greater than 146 .U. Geografiska Annaler 81A: 621-631. 2000. growing to a length of about 14. “after some years with more or less stationary glacier front positions.2 km in 1783. H. but they say that “most of the larger outlets with longer reaction times are continuing to advance.3 km by 1995. and Hock.” Mass balance data reveal much the same it has been in a state of mass accumulation for at least thing. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Y. Winkler. 2005. Glacier and lake-level variations in west-central Europe over the last 3500 years. while some even ceased moving. T. In a review of its length over the past 300 years. (2002) report a post-LIA minimum of 13. The minimum length of 13. Glacier mass balance: the first 50 years of international monitoring. it appears there is no correlation between atmospheric CO2 levels and glacier melting or advancement in Europe. C.J. Mackintosh et al.” In considering the results of the studies summarized above. M. glacial recession in Norway was most strongly expressed in “the middle of the 20th century. Magny. Additional evidence for post-LIA glacial expansion is provided by the history of the Solheimajokull outlet glacier on the southern coast of Iceland. Holmlund.8 km observed in 1970 also did not eclipse an earlier minimum in which the glacier had decreased from a 300-year maximum length of 15. Braithwaite. Additional information on this topic. R. maritime glaciers in both southern and northern Norway. can be found at http:// www.J. M..” Chin et al. Retreat of Mediterranean glaciers since the Little Ice Age: Case study of Ghiacciaio del Calderone. Geografiska Annaler 87 A: 141157. P. References Braithwaite. D’Orefice. Italy. M. and Alpine Research 32: 197-201. The Holocene 15: 789-801. and event.co2science. central Apennines. and Haakensen. Huss. Antarctic. subject/e/europegla. Holzhauser. R.2.. Müller.J. The Tarfala mass balance programme. and Schlüchter. [the glaciers] began to advance.. whereupon the glacier began to expand. Adapted from Linderholm et al. A. According to Chin et al. Progress in Physical Geography 26: 76-95.” where “frequent above-average winter balances are a main cause of the positive net balances at the maritime glaciers during the last few decades. B. M. 2000. The Holocene 11: 255-265. A. and Zhang. a period of time in which the IPCC claims the earth has warmed to its highest temperature of the past thousand years.2 km in 1740 to a 300-year minimum of 13. R. N. and the history of the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration. php.. a portion of the glaciers began to slow. Determination of the seasonal mass balance of four Alpine Figure 4. 1999. The Alps with little ice: evidence for eight Holocene phases of reduced glacier extent in the Central Swiss Alps. M.” Then. accelerating in the late 1980s. M. Salinger.” ending during the late 1950s to early 1960s. making the recent resurgence a significant balance of this glacier over the past 30-40 years. Bauder. in red. 2001. 2008. C. Several European glaciers are holding their own or actually advancing over the past quarter-century. P. The cumulative reconstructed net mass balance (bN) history of Sweden’s Storglaciaren.Climate Change Reconsidered    any previous readvance since the Little Ice Age there has been a significant upward trend in the mass maximum. 2005. Arctic..1. “especially since 1988” and “at all [western] the past decade. S.J. (2007). 2002... Hormes. Pecci. Recent glacier advances in Norway and New Zealand: A comparison of their glaciological and meteorological causes. Chinn. and Zumbuhl.

1999. tree bark. Lorius. Precipitation. they note that “icecore records from the Canadian High Arctic islands indicate that the generally negative glacier mass balances observed over the past 50 years have probably been typical of Arctic glaciers since the end of the Little Ice Age. Davis.. following the Medieval Warm Period. Joerin. Holocene climatic changes in Iceland: evidence from modeling glacier length fluctuations at Solheimajokull. Ritz. U. finding that just over 80 percent of them displayed negative mass balances over the last half of the twentieth century. Quaternary International 91: 39-52. and Chen.R. warming followed the most recent cold phase of this cycle is in no way unusual. L.” They say “there is no compelling indication of increasingly negative balance conditions which might. E. 1200. Chappellaz.” Clague et al. Dowdeswell et al. A. Delaygue. Finally. A.. Jouzel..W.E. a priori. Mackintosh. 2002. after which there were three major intervals of Little Ice Age glacial advance: the early fifteenth century. J. Alaska. J. Chugach. Barnola. Barkov. chironomids. M.1029/2007JF000803.000 years.Y. which was. Antarctica.. similar analyses of materials obtained from pits and cores from a nearby fen.-M.000 years. and Sea Level    glaciers since 1865. be expected from anthropogenically induced global warming.000 years from the Vostok ice core. V. V. carbon and nitrogen content. Bender. North America The history of North American glacial activity also fails to support the claim that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are causing glaciers to melt. 137Cs. diatoms.. twigs and conifer needles and cones. Linderholm. including wood fragments. T. glacier equilibrium line altitudes were depressed from 150 to 200 m below present values as Alaskan glaciers also “reached their Holocene maximum extensions.. G. A highresolution reconstruction of Storglaciaren mass balance back to 1780/81 using tree-ring and circulation indices.. the Little Ice Age. That a significant.. which would have placed it within the unnamed cold period that preceded the Roman Warm Period. and Hubbard. the middle seventeenth century. Calkin et al...L. Journal of Geophysical Research 113: 10.000 years and probably the last 10. C. and the last half of the nineteenth century. Petit. 14C). the third and most extensive Neoglacial interval began shortly after AD 1200.6. of course. Delmotte. Elias mountain ranges. (2004) derived a composite Glacier Expansion Index (GEI) for Alaska based on “dendrochronologically derived calendar dates from forests overrun by advancing ice and age estimates of moraines using tree-rings and lichens” for three climatically distinct regions—the Arctic Brooks Range. and by accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dating of plant fossils. Quaternary Research 67: 12-20. and ended in the late 1800s. during which time Clague et al.. cores from two small lakes that were sampled for a variety of analyses (magnetic susceptibility. C. All this evidence suggested a glacial advance that began about 3.D.I. 2006. M. M. Nature 399: 429-436. D. but by no means unprecedented. I.1. Raynaud. Kotlyakov. J. However. say “glaciers achieved their greatest extent of the past 3.. there was a general glacial retreat during the Medieval Warm Period that lasted for a few centuries prior to A.” These data clearly depict the regular alternation between non-CO2-forcecd multi-century cold and warm periods that is the trademark of the millennialscale oscillation of climate that reverberates throughout glacial and interglacial periods alike. pollen. D. During these latter time periods. Over the latter part of this record. Legrand. Pepin. M.300 years ago but was of short duration. M. Multicentury glacier fluctuations in the Swiss Alps during the Holocene.M. C.. (1997) analyzed the mass balance histories of the 18 Arctic glaciers with the longest observational records. and St. Sea Ice. which would have placed it within the Dark Ages Cold Period. N. A. particularly since the Little Ice Age was likely the coldest period of the last 10. 4. Stocker. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420. and Stievenard. (2001) reviewed the most current and comprehensive research of Holocene glaciation along the northernmost portion of the Gulf of Alaska between the Kenai Peninsula and Yakutat Bay. H. 2007.. and the Kenai..000 years ago and may have lasted for hundreds of years. (2004) documented glacier and vegetation changes at high elevations in the upper Bowser River basin in the northern Coast Mountains of British Columbia..000 years. Jansson. J. There was also evidence for a second minor phase of activity that began about 1. the southern transitional interior straddled by the Wrangell and St.” Wiles et al. P.F. and Schlüchter. Basile.. where several periods of glacial advance and retreat were noted during the past 7.J. Lipenkov. treering data.Observations: Glaciers. Elias coastal ranges—after 147 .. based on studies of the distributions of glacial moraines and trimlines. Dugmore. Saltzman..N.. The Holocene 16: 697-704. 210Pb.

and Agassiz glaciers began just after 1830.” for marine and terrestrial reservoir effects as a proxy Continuing with their history.” after any additional glacial retreat. (2004) used tree-ring rose by only 27 ppm. in Maunder. to create a 300-year history of regional another 27 ppm. from the mid-1940s through glacial accumulation and summer ablation. which in their words “has “hockeystick” temperature history of Mann et al. Then. contrast to what is suggested by the IPCC-endorsed Alaskan glacial activity. but the next 27 ppm increase in the mid-1770s and was interrupted by only one brief air’s CO2 concentration was accompanied by little if ablation phase (~1790s) prior to the 1830s. over which time the air’s CO2 concentration Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age conditions. 2002. said “increased understanding of solar studies from various parts of the world (Vincent and variability and its climatic impacts is critical for Vallon. Pederson et al. the de Vries 208-year solar records indicate a shift in the PDO back to warmer cycle. moderate retreat of behavior of the PDO. The historical (1981) indicate a modest retreat (~3-14 m/yr) for both behavior of North America’s glaciers provides no glaciers until approximately 1917. 1997. which is less than a third of the reconstructions of North Pacific surface temperature total CO2 increase experienced since the start of anomalies and summer drought as proxies for winter glacial recession.” At that point.” forcing function that was even better correlated with The first illuminating aspect of this glacial history the Alaskan composite GEI. which they rates slowed substantially. Jackson and Agassiz glaciers then coincides with a Something other than the historic rise in the air’s period marked by strong negative MBP.” appears to Hemispheric warming until around 1910. 2003. 2002.. Jomelli and Pech. 1999). they say.” From about CO2 content was responsible for the disappearing ice 1850 onward. including the entire centuries. when the air’s CO2 concentration rose by respectively. for solar variability” and with the history of the report that “from the mid-1940s through the 1970s Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) derived by Cook retreat rates slowed substantially.” From the late every 200 years. Esper et al. been shown to be primarily a record of summer (1998. which does not portray any Northern temperature change (Barclay et al.Climate Change Reconsidered    phase that persists for ~25 yr. discovered transitioned to a cool phase [and] relatively mild that “Alaska shows ice expansions approximately summer conditions also prevailed. harmony with the findings of a number of other Wiles et al.” during which period which they compared this history of glacial activity the glaciers retreated “at rates of greater than 100 with “the 14C record preserved in tree rings corrected m/yr. report that “retreat glacial Mass Balance Potential (MBP). they evidence for unprecedented or unnatural CO2-induced report that “the MBP shifts to an extreme negative 148 . 2002. Pederson et al.. concentration coincided with the great preponderance As they describe it. Wiles et al. the 1970s. “instrumental variability. when. they note “Carrara and McGimsey fields of Glacier National Park. 2002). “the maximum glacial of glacial retreat experienced since the start of the advance of the Little Ice Age coincides with a warming that marked the “beginning of the end” of sustained period of positive MBP that began in the the Little Ice Age. with major glacial is that the post-Little Ice Age retreat of the Jackson advances clearly associated with the Sporer. separating anthropogenic from natural forcing and for 2002.. 2004). Pederson et al. Yoo and D’Odorico. advances were documented as the North Pacific As a result of their efforts. compatible with a solar mode of 1970s through the 1990s. Gonzalez-Rouco et predicting anticipated temperature change for future al. These findings stand in stark presumably because there was no need to do so. of course. Vincent. and several modest (2002). be sufficiently well described within the context of The second illuminating aspect of the glacial centennial (solar) and decadal (PDO) variability record is that the vast bulk of the glacial retreat in superimposed upon the millennial-scale (non-CO2Glacier National Park occurred between 1830 and forced) variability that produces longer-lasting 1942. Moore et al. there which they report “the mid-19th century retreat of the was little if any additional warming.” Glacier Park’s extensively studied Jackson and The first 27 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 Agassiz glaciers in northwest Montana. they obtained a dual-parameter the Jackson and Agassiz glaciers.” They made no mention of possible CO2Northern Hemisphere (Briffa and Osborn. 2001. induced global warming in discussing their results. 1999)..” specifically. and several modest compared with historic retreats and advances of advances were documented. and by merging this cycle with the cyclical conditions resulting in continuous. and Dalton solar minima.

Esper. Eriksson. Lowfrequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. southern Alaska. D. Villalba.R. 2002.R. References Barclay.M..W. M. Journal of Hydrology 268: 100-112.. R. and Hughes. D. C. R. and Hughes. J.H. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. F. Mann.. M. L. C. Koerner. plus four others on the western side of the ice field. Quaternary Science Reviews 20: 449-461. M. lichenometry. Precipitation.. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.S. von Storch. Calkin. 1999.co2science. 2002. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. uncertainties.. well before the air’s CO2 content began to rise at a significant rate. R.O. Late Holocene environmental change at treeline in the northern Coast Mountains.. 2001. Walker. Blowing hot and cold.K. D.1. R...E.J. and Zorita. Glacier National Park. “from their Little Ice Age maximum positions” somewhere between 1850 and subject/n/northamgla. F. E. Bradley. Pederson. M. G. I. The late neoglacial histories of the Agassiz and Jackson Glaciers.. Glazovsky. Wohlfarth. and D’Odorico. Hagen. J. Reconstructions of Pacific decadal variability from long tree-ring records. 1999. South America Harrison and Winchester (2000) used dendrochronology. G.C. P. Canada. Harrison. Journal of Glaciology 43: 131-137. They also note that the trend continued “through the first half of the 20th century with various still-stands and oscillations between 1925 and 1960 . and Calkin. with retreat increasing since the 149 .D.C. R. A. USA.K. and Schweingruber. Colonia. and Barclay. Additional information on this topic. Montana. 4956. EOS: Transactions. Yoo. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. 2004.E. Nature 420: 401-403. R. Century-scale solar variability and Alaskan temperature change over the past millennium. L. 2002.F.. and Arenales glaciers on the eastern side of the Hielo Patagonico Norte in southern Chile. M. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 29: 553-564. J. Trends and fluctuations in the dates of ice break-up of lakes and rivers in Northern Europe: the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation. American Geophysical Union 83: S133. Deep soil temperature as proxy for surface air-temperature in a coupled model simulation of the last thousand years. 1997.. V. J. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. M.. Quaternary Science Reviews 23: 2413-2431. B. Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park. Nature 392: 779-787. J. R. 2004. Clague. C. 2004. W.R. Science 295: 2250-2253. Carrara.1029/2004GL019770. K.. Vincent. Meteorological controls on glacier mass-balance: empirical relations suggested by Sarennes glaciers measurements (France).J. P. The mass balance of circum-Arctic glaciers and recent climate change. A 1119year tree-ring-width chronology from western Prince William Sound. This work revealed that these glaciers. 2004. 1997. Ayotte. Mathewes. R. and Thomas... G. Vincent.1029/2003GL018264.7.php. H. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences. Vincent.. Bjornsson. P. Jomelli. France. 2002. D.T. and Graumlich.G.E. 1998.. Fagre.1029/2004GL020050. and Osborn.. I. Journal of Geophysical Research 107: 4-12. Holmlund. and McGimsey. Bradley. D’Arrigo.T. P. Mann. Montana. Dowdeswell. B.S..E. Quaternary Research 48: 1-14. E. 2002.J. The Holocene 9: 79-84.Observations: Glaciers.. J. P. Wiles. Colloque SHF variations climatiques et hydrologie.. and Alverson. Cook.. Arctic and Alpine Research 13: 183-196.H. Moore.E. Gray. C.. Holdsworth. G.. 2003.C. Effects of the Little Ice Age on avalanche boulder tongues in the French Alps (Massif des Ecrins). Wiles. and Walker. began to retreat. Cook. Influence of climate change over the 20th century on four French glacier mass balances. 2001..A. Briffa. Lefauconnier. 4. H. 2002. G. Calkin.W. and Barclay. can be found at http://www. and aerial photography to date nineteenth and twentieth century fluctuations of the Arco. P. Sea Ice.J. British Columbia. Hutchinson. Wiles.J.S. G..E.L. J. and Vallon. pp. Science 295: 2227-2228. Holocene coastal glaciation of Alaska.K. P. T. in the words of the two researchers.J. Climate change in the North Pacific region over the past three centuries. Gonzalez-Rouco. 1981. Jania.R.B. K.C.. Fluctuations des bilans de masse des glaciers des Alpes francaises depuis le debut du 20em siecle au regard des variations climatiques. S.. and limitations. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. Paris. and Pech. and Sea Level    global warming over any part of the twentieth century. Ommanney. E.

(2000) to parts of South America. 1988. Savoskul. they note the most extensive one during the Holocene for this that “in areas peripheral to the North Atlantic and in ice cap.” With 1920s were almost equivalent to those experienced respect to the glacial advancements that occurred there during the depths of the Little Ice Age. a number of moraine of evidence for global climatic change around this systems of Glaciar Lengua and neighboring glaciers time (e. 1993.” In addition. Mercer. Grove. which is the largest glaciated area within the major ice fields of Patagonia: the Hielo Patagonico tropics. his graph of the ice advances and retreats each lasting hundreds of years 14 area lost in both time periods suggests that the rate of going back to sometime between 6. in Georges words.000 C wastage in the 1930s-1940s was twice as great as that years before present (BP). According to their findings.g. 2001. Georges (2004) constructed a twentieth century Glasser et al. they report that Wenzens where the IPCC is willing to admit the existence of (1999) detected five distinct periods of glacial this chilly era of the planet’s climatic history.g. 2001). 1996). Glasser et al. it would Peruvian Cordillera Blanca and Francou et al. Winchester et al. with respect to the most recent recession Aniya... which was also preceded by In comparing the two periods of glacial wasting. glacial extensions of the Cordillera Blanca in the late 1300-1000 14C years BP and AD 1600-1850. 2002) which coincides with an abrupt Chile. retreat was more pronounced than that of the one at Glasser et al. documented cycles of blacial the end of the century. other scientists that reveal a similar pattern of cyclical Georges is quite at ease talking about the Little glacial activity over the preceding millennia in several Ice Age south of the equator in Peru.. after which they compared their results with decrease in solar activity.Climate Change Reconsidered    glaciers underwent significant recession at this time 1960s. 1997).. this warm which there was a period of quiescence that was interlude was in turn preceded by an era of followed by an “intermediate retreat from the midpronounced glacial activity that is designated the 1970s until the end of the century.” and they say that this those of researchers who studied the subject in other observation was what “led van Geel et al. which is the only region on earth Precordillera. Prior to marked readvance in the 1920s that nearly reached then. strong” 1930s-1940s glacial mass shrinkage. they say they constitute “part of a body dendrochronological means. Koch and their study “further supports this scenario. they note Chile (e. 1970.. after when glaciers decreased in size and extent.000 and 5. Grosjean et al. They cited the works of of last two decades of the twentieth century. This history reveals.” Then came the “very temperatures known as the Medieval Warm Period. for example.” and 1700 (e.” and that Kilian.” Dark Ages Cold Period. 1998. Rothlisberger. Immediately to the east of the Hielo long way from the lands that border the North Patagonico Sur in the Rio Guanaco region of the Atlantic Ocean. 2001). The advancement: “4500-4200.” just as has been observed at many sites in the (cf. 1986. pattern can be observed in other parts of southern Luckman and Villalba.” but “various glaciers at Hielo of Hielo Patogonico Norte outlet glaciers from their Patagonico Norte and Hielo Patagonico Sur also late historic moraine limits at the end of the formed prominent moraines around 1870 and 1880 nineteenth century. that Norte and the Hielo Patagonico Sur. (2003) appear that “the ‘Little Ice Age’ advance was possibly for the Bolivian Cordillera Real. Wasson and of Gran Campo Nevado in the southernmost Andes of Claussen. Kuylenstierna et al. followed by a Patagonia occurred during the Little Ice Age.” Northern Hemisphere. 3600-3300. their data indicate an interval of higher the Little Ice Age maximum. This evidence “the beginning of the century was characterized by a indicates that the most recent glacial advances in glacier recession of unknown extent. Finally. say that “a similar (Warren and Sugden. by Warm Period.” central Asia the available evidence shows that 150 . (2004) described a large body of history of glacial fluctuations in the Cordillera Blanca evidence related to glacier fluctuations in the two of Peru. Likewise. 1996. during the cold interval that preceded the Roman Koch and Kilian (2005) mapped and dated.g. which is a very other locations. a period of higher temperatures and retreating glaciers Georges says that “the intensity of the 1930s-1940s that is denoted the Roman Warm Period.” In fact.. 2300-2000. suggest that variations in solar irradiance are more in the Patagonian Andes “the culmination of the Little important as a driving force in variations in climate Ice Age glacier advances occurred between AD 1600 than previously believed.” to which we would also add the from their observations at Glaciar Lengua and findings of Kaser and Georges (1997) for the neighboring glaciers at Gran Campo Nevado.

Glasser. Routledge. References Aniya.co2science.000 years. J. Schreier. and C/N ratios derived from the sediment records of two Venezuelan watersheds. Late Pleistocene and Holocene palaeoclimate and glacier fluctuations in Patagonia. V. Chile. What is more. A late-Holocene (2600 BP) glacial advance in the south-central Andes (29°S). magnetic susceptibility... Polissar et subject/s/southamgla. Winchester. Changes in the equilibrium line altitude in the tropical Cordillera Blanca 151 . The Holocene 8: 473-479. together with ancillary data obtained from other studies that had been conducted in the same general region. M. total nitrogen (TN). J. J.. Mendoza. V. Additional information on this topic. M.. they write that “four glacial advances occurred between AD 1250 and 1810.. Spain. M.4°C and precipitation increases of ~20% are required to produce the observed glacial responses.” because (1) “the peaks and troughs in the susceptibility records match fluctuations of solar irradiance reconstructed from 10Be and δ14C measurements. and Veit. N. Francou. B. Tropical climate change recorded by a glacier in the central Andes during the last decades of the 20th century: Chacaltaya. Bolivia. and Alpine Research 32: 55-63. C. and that any significant warming that might yet occur in this region (as well as most of the rest of the world) would mark only a return to more typical Holocene (or current interglacial) temperatures.” and that “profound climatic impacts can be predicted for tropical montane regions. Precipitation. (2006) developed continuous decadal-scale histories of glacier activity and moisture balance in that part of the tropical Andes (the Cordillera de Merida) over the past millennium and a half.E. G. H.M.. atmospheric CO2 concentrations were much lower during all of those much warmer periods. 1996. C.2 ± 1. Messerli. δ15NTN. Arctic. we note that whereas Polissar et al. from which they were able to deduce contemporary histories of regional temperature and precipitation. H. Sea Ice. and Alpine Research 35: 100-107. Holocene variations of Ameghino Glacier.1029/2002JD002473.’s linking of significant climate changes with solar radiation variability is a factual finding of their work. southern Patagonia. can be found at http://www. Harrison.” In addition. Antarctic. the United States. London. and Sicart. 2004. Journal of Geophysical Research 108: 10. and Venezuela— write that “comparison of the Little Ice Age history of glacier activity with reconstructions of solar and volcanic forcing suggests that solar variability is the primary underlying cause of the glacier fluctuations. M.F.’s acknowledgement that “during most of the past 10. Antarctic. Nineteenth. UK. The international team of scientists—representing Canada.Observations: Glaciers. and Aniya. δ13CTOC.” The six scientists also say their findings imply “even greater probable responses to future anthropogenic forcing. and Georges. Vuille. 2004. their latter statements with respect to hypothesized CO2induced increases in down-welling thermal radiation are speculations that need not follow from what they learned. 1988. Another point worth noting in this regard is Polissar et al. 2003. Grosjean. M. which have themselves been significantly lower than those of all four prior interglacials. P.” which indicates that warmer-than-present temperatures are the norm for this part of the planet. which they obtained from cores retrieved from Lakes Mucubaji and Blanca. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Arctic. The Little Ice Age. 2000. Wagnon.” and that “temperature declines of -3. northern Chile. Kaser. Hielo Patagonico Norte. Georges. Harrison. B. coincident with solar-activity minima.and twentieth-century glacier fluctuations and climatic implications in the Arco and Colonia Valleys. 20th-century glacier fluctuations in the tropical Cordillera Blanca. 16°S.” In discussing their findings.A. Global and Planetary Change 43: 79-101. say their results “suggest considerable sensitivity of tropical climate to small changes in radiative forcing from solar irradiance variability.php. and the magnetic susceptibility record follows the solar-irradiance reconstruction during this interval.” (2) “spectral analysis shows significant peaks at 227 and 125 years in both the irradiance and magnetic susceptibility records.” With respect to these latter ominous remarks. Polissar et al. 1998. Geyh. glaciers were absent from all but the highest peaks in the Cordillera de Merida. total organic carbon (TOC). closely matching the de Vreis and Gleissberg oscillations identified from solar irradiance reconstructions. The Holocene 6: 247-252.” and (3) “solar and volcanic forcing are uncorrelated between AD 1520 and 1650. and Sea Level    Working with biogenic silica.. and Winchester. Peru.. S. S. 1997. Grove.

. Warren. Fluctuations of outlet and valley glaciers in the southern Andes (Argentina) during the past 13. R.000 years. 1993. 1970. Modern and Little Ice Age glaciers in “humid” and “arid” areas of the Tien Shan.6(±1.5)% in area. Heusser. Assessing the synchroneity of glacier fluctuations in the western Cordillera of the Americas during the last millennium.J. are supported by other studies.J. Arctic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 103: 8937-8942.L. In: Kaennel Dobbertin. C. and season length since at least 1978. Recent retreat Glacier Nef.P. A. Polissar..5. Climatic change in Chile at around 2700 B. Chile.. and Sugden. Davos. New York. Arctic and Alpine Research 25: 316-331.. 119-140. Kuylenstierna.” and that most climate models predict that “any rise in surface temperature would result in a decrease in sea ice coverage. Verlag Sauerlander. Hanna (2001) published an updated analysis of Antarctic sea ice cover based on SSM/I data for the period October 1987-September 1999. F. The Holocene 15: 20-28. that Southern Ocean sea ice has increased in area.R. J. J. Earth systems models: a test using the mid-Holocene in the Southern Hemisphere.. Watkins and Simmonds (2000) analyzed temporal trends in different measures of the sea ice that surrounds Antarctica.) International Conference on Tree Rings and People. In this section we analyze Antarctic and Arctic sea ice trends as reported in the scientific literature. both parameters continued to show increases over the sum of the two periods (1978-1996).). Bezada. Mercer. Wolfe. (Ed. and Claussen.e. 12. 2002. Annals of Glaciology 24: 344-349. Tierra del Fuego. Quaternary Science Reviews 21: 819-824. and Kilian. Chilean Patagonia.” Updating the analysis two years later for the period November 1978 through 152 . Switzerland. and when they combined their results with results for the preceding period of 1978-1987.3)% in extent and 6. V. Central Asia: two different patterns of fluctuation. USA. Savoskul. Interhemispheric Climate Linkages. Winchester. The Holocene 6: 353-358. D. 1997. southernmost Chile. i.R. C. Variations of some Patagonian glaciers since the Late-Glacial: II. finding that although there are opposing regional trends. 2001. Antarctic Utilizing Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data obtained from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) for the period December 1987-December 1996.C. V. 1996. M.H. Sea Ice A number of claims have been made that CO2induced global warming is melting sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic and that such melting will accelerate as time passes. they determined that the 1990s also experienced increases in the length of the sea ice season. noting that “it has been suggested that the Antarctic sea ice may show high sensitivity to any anthropogenic increase in temperature. Renssen. and Bradley.Climate Change Reconsidered    (Peru) between 1930 and 1950 and their spatial variations. 2001. Harrison. P. Antarctic and Alpine Research 33: 266-273. 4. We revisit the issue of ice melting in much greater depth in Section 4. Koch. and Braker. NY. and Villalba. R. M. C. dated by lichenometry and dendrochronology. P. G. V.P. Luckman. Gran Campo Nevado. Annals of Glaciology 24: 142-147.” Parkinson (2002) utilized satellite passivemicrowave data to calculate and map the length of the sea-ice season throughout the Southern Ocean for each year of the period 1979-1999. G. B.2. Koch. and Kilian. Late-Holocene glacier variations in the Cordillera Darwin. and Warren.S.E. and Schuurmans.U.. 1999.1. O.J. Academic Press. O. p. “Little Ice Age” glacier fluctuations.” Contrary to what one would expect on the basis of these predictions. 1986. the two scientists observed statistically significant increases in both sea ice area and sea ice extent over the period studied. Watkins and Simmonds’ findings. finding the serial sea ice data depict “an ongoing slight but significant hemispheric increase of 3. Dendroglaciological evidence of Little Ice Age glacier fluctuations at the Gran Campo Nevado.E. extent. American Journal of Science 269: 1-25. Aarau. pp. southernmost Chile. Rosqvist.H.7(±0. 2005.2. H. Abbott. S. 10 000 Jahre Gletschergeschichte der Erde. R. Wenzens.. Quaternary Research 51: 238-247. The Patagonian icefields: a glaciological review. 2000. J. 2001. M. and Holmlund. van Geel. Rothlisberger.. The Holocene 10: 659-664. Wasson. (Eds.S. In addition. 4. J..J. Rull. C. and global evidence for solar forcing: a hypothesis. M. R. 2006. R. In: Markgraf. a “much larger area of the Southern Ocean experienced an overall lengthening of the sea-ice season … than experienced a shortening. Solar modulation of Little Ice Age climate in the tropical Andes.B. B.

” In addition. where the sea ice extent trends seem to be near zero. they report that the sea ice extent of the entire Southern Ocean increased by 11.730 km2 per year.98 ± 0. Zwally et al.43 percent per decade. (2004) used sea ice concentration data retrieved from the scanning multichannel microwave radiometer on the Nimbus 7 satellite and the spatial sensor microwave/imager on several defense meteorological satellites to develop a quality-controlled history of Antarctic sea ice variability covering the period 1979-2002.” noting that “the upward trends in the total ice extent and area are robust for different cutoffs of 15. which they combined with data for the period 1978-1987 that were derived from space-based passive microwave radiometers carried aboard earlier Nimbus-5. and Sea Level    December 2002. they determined that “the total Antarctic sea ice area (the cumulative area of the ocean actually covered by at least 15% ice concentrations) has increased significantly by ~13. Over the 20-year period 1979-1998. These analyses were carried out for the continent as a whole. and 60°W-20°E.26 ± 0. Their work revealed that the mean rate of change of sea ice extent for the entire Antarctic region over this period was an increase of 0. Laine (2008) determined 1981-2000 trends of Antarctic sea-ice concentration and extent. In fact. Cavalieri et al.” noting that the “continually increasing sea ice extent over the Antarctic Southern Polar Ocean. as well as five longitudinal sectors emanating from the south pole: 20°E-90°E. Vyas et al.” In a somewhat similar study.” Elderfield and Rickaby (2000) concluded that the sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean during glacial periods may have been as much as double the coverage of modern winter ice. the total Antarctic sea ice extent (the cumulative area of grid boxes covering at least 15% ice concentrations) has shown an increasing trend (~4.043 M km² per year. and 30% ice concentrations (used to define the ice extent and area). They found that “overall. Yuan and Martinson (2000) analyzed Special SSM/I data together with data derived from brightness temperatures measured by the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer. Likewise. Nimbus-7. finding that sea ice extent about the continent increased at a mean rate of 0. they concluded that “the increasing trend in the sea ice extent over the Antarctic region may be slowly accelerating in time. exceeding the 95% confidence level.181 ± 4. Liu et al. 2000) over the last two decades. based on data obtained from the Advanced Microwave 153 . suggesting that “by restricting communication between the ocean and atmosphere. Results indicated that “the sea ice concentration shows slight increasing trends in most sectors.295 km²/yr. which includes different states of the Antarctic Oscillation and several ENSO events.801 km²/yr). to 2.” Comiso and Nishio (2008) set out to provide updated and improved estimates of trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice cover for the period extending from November 1978 to December 2006. is paradoxical in the global warming scenario resulting from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.720 square km per year. after which they evaluated total sea ice extent and area trends by means of linear least-squares regression. along with the observed decreasing trends in Antarctic ice surface temperature (Comiso. or by 0.380 ± 1. Parkinson (2004) reported a linear increase in 12-month running means of Southern Ocean sea ice extent of 12.10 ± 0. based on the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SSMR) and SSM/I for the spring-summer period of November/December/ January. and DMSP satellites to study secular trends in sea ice extent about Antarctica over the period 1978-2001. 20. 90°E-160°E.011 degree of latitude per year. They observed that the variability of monthly sea ice extent declined from 4. 130°W-60°W. 160°E-130°W. Precipitation.37 percent per decade. particularly over the last decade.05 x 106 km² per decade between 1977 and 2002.” Laine also reports that “the Antarctic region as a whole and all the sectors separately show slightly positive spring-summer albedo trends. they determined that the mean trend in the latitudinal location of the Antarctic sea ice edge over the prior 18 years was an equatorward expansion of 0. (2003) extended prior satellite-derived Antarctic sea ice records several years by bridging the gap between Nimbus 7 and earlier Nimbus 5 satellite datasets with National Ice Center digital sea ice data. (2003) analyzed data from the multichannel scanning microwave radiometer carried aboard India’s OCEANSAT-1 satellite for the period June 1999-May 2001. Among other things. Sea Ice.” Three papers on Antarctic sea ice were published in 2008.7 percent over the last 10 years. (2002) also utilized passivemicrowave satellite data to study Antarctic sea ice trends.0 percent over the first 10 years of the record.860 ± 3. while sea ice area increased by nearly the same amount: 10. sea ice expansion also provides a mechanism for reduced CO2 release by the Southern Ocean and lower glacial atmospheric CO2. or by 1.Observations: Glaciers.190 square km per year.

Anomalous peak in Antarctic sea-ice area. trend increased slightly. Parkinson. C.K. Antarctic ice sheet and sea ice regional the Antarctic grew by +0. 2008. P. V. International Journal of Remote eight years of the study period. Both sets of results indicate a extent over the antarctic region based on OCEANSAT-1 “tightening up” of the two relationships: Over the last MSMR observations.J.C. Khare.L. and Martinson. A.. Antarctic Science 16: 387-400. it is difficult to identify a change in either the extent or thickness of Arctic sea ice that could be attributed to the increase in temperature that has been predicted to result from the burning of fossil fuels.L. Parkinson..J. and Parkinson. 2001.0 ± 0.1029/2003GL018732.. and Rickaby. 2004.Y. Nature 405: 305-310. significant at the 95 percent confidence level.1029/2003GL018031. Comiso.. Zwally.M. C. Their findings indicate that sea ice extent and area in Laine.. J.2 ± 0.7 percent per decade and 1.L.2. Current trends in with the former parameter increasing at a more rapid Antarctic sea ice: The 1990s impact on a short climatology. R. (2002) from 20 Liu. Trends in the length of the Southern satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer data.1029/2007JC004257. and Gloersen. Additional information on this topic. Geophysical Research SMMR. SSM/I. 4.C.C. 1981-2000.E. 1979-2006. D. both the extent and Sensing 24: 2277-2287. rate than it did over the 1979-1998 period. N. varying simultaneously on a number of different timescales for a number of different reasons (Venegas and Mysak. C. F.G.5 A. J. 2008. H.G. Journal of Geophysical Research 113: 10. M.K. K. D. P. On the secular trends in sea ice percent per decade.9 ± 0. Ocean sea-ice season. Journal of Climate 13: 4441-4451.7 ± 0.. 2000). and SMMR data.C. H. and Nishio. Journal of Geophysical Research 113: extent variability and its global connectivity.1029/2000JC000733. Cavalieri. and Martinson. D. from 0. the SSM/I.4 percent per decade.” noting the latter trend is linkages: insights revealed from models and observations. subject/s/seaiceantarctic. coincident with ENSO. 2003.1029/2007JC004564. D. Antarctic sea ice variability and trends. J.3 albedo and temperature change. 2002.2 and +1. C. 154 . time series reported by Zwally et al. and the winter 1998. area of Antarctic sea ice have continued to increase. S. Antarctic sea ice available. and Vinnikov.L.. Variability and trends in Antarctic surface temperatures from in situ and satellite infrared measurements. 2003.2 ± 0. 2000. Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E). Journal of Climate 13: 1674-1696. 2000. J. Elderfield. Variability of Antarctic sea ice 1979-1998. Against this backdrop of multiple causation and timeframe variability. trends of Antarctic sea ice extent and area based on Parkinson. Journal of Climate 13: 1697-1717. X. years (1979-1998) to 28 years (1979-2006)” by Interpretation of recent Antarctic sea ice variability. Arctic Arctic climate is incredibly complex. 2008. 2004. Trends in the sea ice cover using enhanced and compatible AMSR-E. N. E. Annals of Glaciology 34: Results indicate “the total Antarctic sea ice extent 435-440. References Cavalieri. Bhandari. 2000.J. trend were 1. can be found at http://www. J. and Pandey. where the data from the last two instruments Letters 28: 1595-1598. from AVHRR percent per decade. Cavalieri..php.Climate Change Reconsidered    Hanna.A. Cavalieri and Parkinson (2008) derived new linear Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. C. Watkins.J. Oceanic Cd/P ratio and nutrient utilization in the glacial Southern Ocean. The task is further complicated because many of the records that do exist contain only a few years to a few decades of data. Remote Sensing of Environment 112: A study that “extends the analyses of the sea ice 646-667. Polar Pathfinder data. from the 20Parkinson. Dash.co2science. Comiso. Curry. 2002. were adjusted to be consistent with the AMSR-E data. Mitra. including reviews of newer publications as they become Yuan.B. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. 2000. Comiso. 30-Year satellite record reveals contrasting Arctic and Antarctic decadal sea ice variability. respectively.L.96 ± 0. D. 1979-99.2. and they yield different trends depending on the period of time studied.M. I. Southern Ocean sea ice and its wider to 28-year period. Corresponding numbers for the Antarctic sea ice area Vyas. Journal of Geophysical Research 107: 10.61 percent per decade to 1. and Simmonds.

Furthermore. after which the trends they documented were “related to the relative importance of each wintering microhabitat for eight marine indicator species and potential impacts on winter success and survival were examined. Precipitation. Kwok calculated the coverage of Arctic MY sea ice at the beginning of each year of the study was 3774 x 103 km2 in 2000. and Hudson Strait showed small increasing trends in the fraction of open-water.1. for example. More questions are raised Parkinson (2000b). representing an increase in sea ice coverage of 9 percent over a third of a decade. who utilized satellite-derived data of sea ice extent to calculate changes in this parameter for the periods 1979-1990 and 1990-1999. Heide-Jorgensen and Laidre (2004) examined changes in the fraction of openwater found within various pack-ice microhabitats of Foxe Basin. including second year) ice coverage of the Arctic Ocean using QuikSCAT backscatter.” It should be noted in this regard. Sea Ice. one is left with the impression that a relatively consistent and persistent reduction in the area of Arctic sea ice is in progress. and at a mean rate for all open-water microhabitats studied of fully 1 percent per decade. the open-water trend was downward. In viewing their plots of sea ice area. and Lancaster Sound over a 23-year interval (1979-2001) using remotely sensed microwave measurements of sea-ice extent. however. 4475 x 103 km2 in 2002. and Sea Level  4. that assessment is highly debatable and possibly false.’s assessment of the situation.” They add that the replenishment “was followed by an accelerated and compensatory decline during the subsequent 4 years. and according to their own data. Hudson Bay. or whether they are simply ephemeral expressions of natural low frequency oscillations. In another study. Hudson Bay. (1999) analyzed Arctic sea ice extent over the period 1978-1998 and found it to have decreased by about 14 percent. conclude that their 14-year analysis of multiyear ice dynamics is “insufficient to project long-term trends. However.6 percent per decade. with the upward trends at all microhabitats studied ranging from 0.2 to 0. on the other hand. In fact. who estimated “the time-varying perennial ice zone (PIZ) coverage and construct[s] the annual cycles of multiyear (MY. In the autumn of 1996. This finding led them to suggest that “the balance of evidence. they learned that 75 percent of the interannual variation in January multiyear sea area “was explained by linear regression on two atmospheric parameters: the previous winter’s Arctic Oscillation index as a proxy to melt duration and the previous year’s average sea level pressure gradient across the Fram Strait as a proxy to annual ice export.” Belchansky et al. Belchansky et al. and such behavior is not what one would predict from a gradually increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. they note that “a large   multiyear ice recruitment of over 10 km fully replenished the previous 8-year decline in total area. while the trend in all Lancaster Sound open-water microhabitats was also downward. essentially all of the drop it experienced occurred abruptly over a single period of not more than three years (87/8890/91) and possibly only one year (89/90-90/91).2. In another study. the “sign of the trend reversed from the 1979-1990 period to the 1990-1999 period. it is readily evident that the decline in this parameter did not occur smoothly over the 20-year period of study. indicates “an ice cover in transition. MY fractions from RADARSAT.4 percent per year. (1999). and the record of ice export from satellite passive microwave observations” for the years 1999-2003. total January multiyear ice area declined at a mean rate of 1. sea ice area in the Arctic may have actually increased. Extent Johannessen et al.7 percent per decade. With respect to the context of these open-water declines. northern Baffin Bay. He reports that in seven of the nine regions into which he divided the Arctic for his analysis. Hudson Strait. it may lead to a markedly different ice regime in the Arctic. (2004) report that from 1988 to 2001.Observations: Glaciers.” and that “if this apparent transformation continues. Heide-Jorgensen and Laidre report that 6 2 155 .” as small as it then was.” In addition. Reading Johannessen et al. In Baffin BayDavis Straight and northern Baffin Bay.” Results of the analysis indicate that Foxe Basin. Baffin BayDavis Strait. it could be argued from their data that from 1990/91 onward. and 4122 x 103 km2 in 2003. in this case at a mean rate of 0.” indicative of the ease with which significant decadal trends are often reversed in this part of the world. Support for this assessment of the data is found in Kwok (2004). however.2. 3896 x 103 km2 in 2001. that low frequency oscillations are what the data actually reveal.” They also conclude it is insufficient to reveal “whether recent declines in multiyear ice area and thickness are indicators of anthropogenic exacerbations to positive feedbacks that will lead the Arctic to an unprecedented future of reduced ice cover.” as was also suggested by Vinnikov et al.

By utilizing Greenland coast.. developed a 1. in a study of the Nordic Seas of this period.36 ± 0. are within April has decreased by 33% over the past 135 years. Deser et al. and (4) 1920-1990. Vinje (2001) determined that sea-ice conditions in the Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea “the extent of ice in the Nordic Seas measured in region. with slightly lower increases of 2.” able to infer the behavior of this phenomenon over the Cavalieri et al.03 x 106 km2 per decade. or Omstedt and Chen (2001) obtained a proxy record of at a rate that was 20 percent greater than the fullthe annual maximum extent of sea ice in the region of period rate. however. 2000a. 2002) quantify a number of attributes of the Odden ice and comparable significant increases have been tongue—a winter ice-cover phenomenon that occurs detected back to 1953 (Stern and Heide-Jorgensen. which climate trend. 1999 (Parkinson et al. does not account for interdecadal variability.” (1) 1530-1640. In determined that the downward trend in Arctic sea ice analyzing this record. which is located within the region of study.” ‘Little Ice Age’ variability.000 square sea ice have also been detected locally along the West kilometers—over the period 1979-1998. cooling with a during the eleventh through fourteenth centuries. they found that a significant extent during the passive microwave era culminated decline in sea ice occurred around 1877. they were 2003). a tendency toward earlier ice break-up of 15 they determined that after a period of reduced sea ice days/century. 2000. (2) 1640sea ice conditions in the Arctic region of Baffin Bay 1770.” identified four distinct periods of climatic transition: In an effort to overcome this “short-sightedness. shortened period from 1979-2002. For the ice tongue for the past 75 years revealed the ice newly extended period of 1972-2002. that “nearly half of this reduction 156 . (2002) the Baltic Sea over the period 1720-1997. rate of decline of 0. at least during the last 50 years.300 km 2003). percent per decade (Stern and Heide-Jorgensen. The long date-of-ice-break-up time series was the records sufficiently long to clearly establish a best described by a fifth-order polynomial. who used satellite imagery to analyze and Parkinson.” due to the warmer of 0. In doing so. Barents. therefore. warming with a tendency toward Grumet et al. recent trends in Arctic sea ice cover historical data for the observed time of ice break-up “can be viewed out of context because their brevity between 1529 and 1990 in the northern port of Riga.. extent) by examining the situation. but the proxy reconstruction of the Odden with National Ice Center digital sea ice data.Climate Change Reconsidered    extent there has not yet emerged from the range of “increasing trends in sea ice coverage in Baffin Bay conditions characteristic of the Little Ice Age.05 x 106 km2 per decade. (2001) have described duration (and.” suggesting that sea ice He notes. this latter were as high as 7. they found a mean In another study of Arctic climate variability. cooling with a tendency toward later ice breakbased on sea-salt records from an ice core obtained up of five days/century.30 ± 0.8 surface air temperature data from Jan Mayen Island.000-year record of spring earlier ice break-up of nine days/century. (2001). Parkinson and Cavalieri. with a record minimum value in 2002. Jevrejeva However. 1999. Norwegian. they report that “despite (the Greenland. they reported finding greater variability in sea ice These results could readily be construed to extent in the colder 1720-1877 period than in the indicate an increasingly greater rate of Arctic sea ice warmer 1878-1997 period. As Grumet et al. (3) 1770-1920. following 600 years. In addition. For the final (twentieth) century On the other hand. Also at work in the Baltic Sea region.b. while for the temperatures that prevailed at that time. Trend analyses revealed that the ice derived Arctic sea ice records several years back in tongue has exhibited no statistically significant time by bridging the gap between Nimbus 7 and change in any of the parameters studied over the past earlier Nimbus 5 satellite datasets via comparisons 20 years. in the Greenland Sea with a length of about 1. they determined phenomenon to have been “a relatively smaller that Arctic sea ice extent had declined at a mean rate feature several decades ago. nor are Latvia. In addition Serreze et al. tendency toward later ice break-up of 12 enhanced sea ice conditions prevailed during the days/century. however.” They additionally note that “similar trends in and an aerial coverage of as much as 330. Iceland. warming with from the Penny Ice Cap on Baffin Island. Western Kara Seas). (2003) extended prior satellitepast 75 years. the results of these studies are not the end (2001) reconstructed an even longer record of sea ice of the story.5 percent per decade between 1979period of time was also studied by Comiso et al. and warmer temperatures during the turn of the century. and Davis Strait (resulting in declining open-water) In an adjacent sector of the Arctic. melting during the latter part of the twentieth century.

whereas the second half of the sea-ice decline occurred over a period of time when the air’s CO2 concentration rose by more than 70 ppm.” They further note that the highest of these growth rates represents “as much as a 40% increase in accumulation rate (Pinglot et al. superimposed on a continuous negative trend. In a similar study of the Kara. 1997.g. in this regard. 1992).. during the previous warm phase of the low frequency oscillation. Vinje.. which they analyzed for evidence of long-term trend and oscillatory behavior. Proshutinsky et al. Laptev. 2000. therefore.” They suggest.4%.” Divine and Dick (2006) used historical April through August ice observations made in the Nordic Seas—comprised of the Iceland. and Sea Level    is observed over the period 1860-1900. and (4) an interdecadal Arctic climate cycle (Mysak et al. its impact over the last century has declined to less than a tenth of what its impact was over the preceding four decades.” while “in the Kara. in the words of Parkinson (2000b).” Likewise. it is difficult to accept the claim that Northern Hemispheric sea ice is rapidly disintegrating in response to CO2-induced global warming.. Johannessen et al. (3) a ‘see-saw’ in winter temperatures between Greenland and northern Europe (Rogers and van Loon. who used high-accuracy ice-surface elevation measurements (Krabill et al. 1999.. Norwegian. 1999.1%. respectively. (2004). This in turn suggests that the increase in the air’s CO2 content over the past 135 years has likely had nothing to do with the concomitant decline in sea-ice cover.” The likelihood that Arctic sea ice trends are the product of such natural oscillations. Wang and Ikeda. 1990.. thickening of about 10 cm per year was also observed. and Chukchi Seas the ice extent trends are not large either: -1. Greenland. East Siberian.” In light of this litany of findings. the two Norwegian researchers say their results suggest that “the Arctic ice pack is now at the periodical apogee of the low-frequency variability. Bamber et al. that the first half of this sea-ice decline occurred over a period of time when the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration rose by only 7 ppm. “do not support the hypothesized polar amplification of global warming.Observations: Glaciers. on the island of Nordaustlandet in northeastern Svalbard—to evaluate ice cap elevation changes between 1996 and 2002. which comprises 15 percent of its total area. based on newly available long-term Russian observations.” Moreover. 1999. They determined that the central and highestaltitude area of the ice cap. “provides a strong rationale for considerable caution when extrapolating into the future the widely reported decreases in the Arctic ice cover over the past few decades or when attributing the decreases primarily to global warming. when any anthropogenic influence is believed to have still been negligible. Hurrell and van Loon. Rather. +0. Deser et al. concluded that the 157 .” while “to the northeast of this region.3%. 1999). in a study published the following year.” and we note. Parkinson continues. 2000. Precipitation. Polyakov et al. Deser et al. and Chuckchi Seas. 2001) and the spatially broader Arctic Oscillation (e. 2000. extending from 30°W to 70°E—to construct time series of ice-edge position anomalies spanning the period 1750-2002. in their words. are not statistically significant.. (2002) found “smaller than expected” trends in sea ice cover that. The authors report that “evidence was found of oscillations in ice cover with periods of about 60 to 80 years and 20 to 30 years. they say “these trends.5% per decade. Mysak and Power. “increased in elevation by an average of 50 cm per year between 1996 and 2002. Kwok.. “the possibility of close connections between the sea ice cover and major oscillatory patterns in the atmosphere and oceans. 2001). -0. Polyakov et al..” which observations are indicative of a “persistent ice retreat since the second half of the 19th century” that began well before anthropogenic CO2 emissions could have had much effect on earth’s climate. Sea Ice.” a caution with which we heartily agree. East Siberian. the oscillatory behavior observed in so many of the sea ice studies suggests. If the historical rise in the air’s CO2 content has been responsible for the historical decrease in sea-ice extent. (2) the Arctic Ocean Oscillation (Polyakov et al. as they immediately caution.” Based on the ancillary sea-ice and meteorological data they analyzed. (2003) report that “over the entire Siberian marginal-ice zone the century-long trend is only -0.” including connections with: “(1) the North Atlantic Oscillation (e. 2000). 1979). and Barents Seas. Kwok and Rothrock. and -1. 2000) of the largest ice cap in the Eurasian Arctic—Austfonna. “that during decades to come … the retreat of ice cover may change to an expansion. Noting that the last cold period observed in the Arctic occurred at the end of the 1960s.” However.” and that “this could explain the strong negative trend in ice extent during the last decades as a possible superposition of natural low frequency variability and greenhouse gas induced warming of the last decades. except for the Chukchi Sea. “a similar shrinkage of ice cover was observed in the 1920s-1930s.. One final study of note is that of Bamber et al.0% per decade..g. Laptev.

available. Arctic 53: 341-358. C.. 2001.. 2001. L. Spatial and temporal multiyear sea ice distributions in the Arctic: A neural network analysis of SSM/I data. “will have a significant impact on the mass-balance of Satellite evidence for an Arctic sea ice cover in land ice around the Arctic Basin over at least the next transformation. and Gersten... J. Influence of atmospheric circulation on the maximum ice extent in the Baltic Sea.. which Jevrejeva. 2006. Historical variability of sea ice edge position in the Nordic Seas. R. Parkinson.. P. D.F.1029/2003JC002238. Recent trend reversals in Arctic sea ice extents: possible connections to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 9093-9116.. O. P. 2004. .W.B. “projected changes in Arctic sea-ice cover. Omstedt.M. A.1029/2004JC002851. S. sea-ice. D. References Bamber.. Decadal variations in from the top of the sea (in this case. J.” as they say in the concluding sentence of their paper. K. Frederick. 2001. and Laidre. and 18-year record. Swift. and Vinnikov. Wright. and Timlin. 2003. and Chen. C. Manizade. Greenland ice sheet: High-elevation reviews of newer publications as they become balance and peripheral thinning. R. Austfonna ice cap).P.W.1029/2004GL019667. Parkinson. and Cavalieri.L. J. Variability of sea-ice extent in Baffin 158 Kwok. And as what has been observed to date is only the beginning of the phenomenon. seasonal and monthly variability and trends. E. L. Abdalati. Koerner. C..Y. simply to say that it represents the transference of ice Hurrell. and Dowdeswell. Grumet. V.J. 2004. 1990.J. Comiso. and Marsden.C. Variability of Arctic sea ice: the view from space. J. Ambio 33: 487-494. Additional information on this topic. 1999. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. 30-Year satellite record reveals contrasting Arctic and Antarctic decadal sea ice variability.co2science. Manak. 50 years. Journal of Climate 13: 617-633. can be found at http://www. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 4493-4500. R. M. 2000. M.A. growth over the six-year study period was a large increase in precipitation caused by a concomitant Heide-Jorgensen.. W. N. Anomalous recent growth of part of a large Arctic ice cap: Austfonna..L. the Barents Sea) climate associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Annual cycles of multiyear sea ice coverage of the Arctic Ocean: 1999-2003.P. Climate Research 17: 55-62. 2000. 2002. I. Parkinson. Kwok. and Rothrock. D.. Science 289: 428-430. Deser.. J. Science 286: 1937-1939. Walsh.A. Kwok. Zielinski. Fisher.. 1988-2001. C. 2000b. E. S. Wake. Climate Dynamics 5: 111-133. 2001.M. Journal of Geophysical Research 109: 10. 1997. extent of open-water refugia for top predators in Baffin Their way of characterizing this phenomenon is Bay and adjacent waters..V.A.. 2000. Parkinson.. Johannessen. C.I. and Power.” Which result. and Miles.S.php. A 21-year record of Arctic sea-ice extents and their regional. including and Yungel. H. we might add. C.. 2000a.A. the Climatic Change 36: 301-326. Seasonal and interannual variability of the Odden ice tongue and a study of environmental effects. R. R.S. M. W. Mayewski.. Belchansky. Annals of Glaciology 34: 441-446.V. Severity of winter seasons in the will become even stronger in the absence of nearby northern Baltic Sea between 1529 and 1990: reconstruction and analysis.K. and Woollett. D.Climate Change Reconsidered    Bay over the last millennium. R. Mysak. Thomas.C. Pedersen. N.. K. C. Sea-ice anomalies in the western Arctic and Greenland-Iceland Sea and their relation to an interdecadal climate cycle. D.L.M. Declining reduction in sea-ice cover in this sector of the Arctic.L. the opposite of that forecast by the IPCC. Arctic sea ice variability in the context of recent atmospheric circulation subject/s/seaicearctic. and Dick..L. may be just Krabill. W. Douglas.T. J. Whitlow. Recent changes in Arctic Ocean sea ice motion associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation..A. R. D. J. Svalbard.A. W. Martin.1029/2004JC002388. Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 5177-5189. Variability of Fram Strait ice flux and North Atlantic Oscillation. Climatological Bulletin/Bulletin Climatologique 26: 147-176. D. Krabill. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 775-778. Sonntag. 2004. Raper. Shalina. Mysak. S. to the top of the adjacent land (in this case. C. Climatic Change 49: 129best explanation for the dramatic increase in ice cap 145. S.L. J. D. G. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: 10. Divine. G. Journal of Geophysical Research 109: 10. Cavalieri.V..A. Polar Geography 24: 1-12. 2004. Alpatsky. and Platonov. L.. Seaice anomalies observed in the Greenland and Labrador Seas during 1901-1984 and their relation to an interdecadal Arctic climate cycle. Wadhams. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. 1992.G. R. 1999. and van Loon.1029/2003GL018031.

Eiken.. I..V. J. C.A. A. V. Walsh. Alekseev. Data from the North Pole also showed little variability. M. for example. 1979. 2003.” and acknowledges that “ice thickness varies considerably from year to year at a given location and so the rather sparse temporal sampling provided by submarine data makes inferences regarding long term change difficult” (IPCC 2007. Bekryaev. D. Thickness Based on analyses of submarine sonar data. Polyakov. and Haran. Stroeve. J. Is there a dominant timescale of natural climate variability in the Arctic? Journal of Climate 13: 3412-3434.P.. Stouffer. and Johnson. and Ikeda. Sea Ice. H.1029/2002GL016406.” incorporating data from “the atmosphere..E. A record minimum arctic sea ice extent and area in 2002. R. V. Seasonal cycles in two regimes of Arctic climate. Journal of Glaciology 47: 555566. Colony.. Bekryaev. G. 2001.V. Alekseev.. D. A mean net accumulation pattern derived from radioactive layers and radar soundings on Austfonna.B.V. U..C.C. A.. T.J.S.P.... Polyakov. P.A. Mitchell. J. Vinje.. Journal of Climate 16: 2078-2085.. R. and ocean along with dynamics expressed in an ocean-ice-snow model. and Yulin. Zwally. Svalbard.. The seesaw in winter temperatures between Greenland and Northern Europe. Hagen. as well as two areas that had been particularly densely sampled. The transect data across the entire Arctic Basin revealed that the mean Arctic sea-ice thickness had remained “almost constant” over the period of study.F. Proshutinsky.” The following year. C. Nordaustlandet. A. Fowler. Makshtas. Maslanik. Cavalieri.A.R. Barry. 2003. 1978-1996.L. Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming.” On the basis of a number of different data-fed model runs. but occurred abruptly before 1991.J. D.Y..F. Stern. Fetterer. Vinnikov. Winsor concluded that “mean ice thickness has remained on a near-constant level around the North Pole from 1986 to 1997. 1999. R. and Heide-Jorgensen. and Comiso. Polar Research 22: 11-18. 4. Long-term ice variability in Arctic marginal seas. L. Scambos. Precipitation. J. V. R.M. Proshutinsky. Knowles.Y. R.” As for the Beaufort Sea region. D. and Johnson. A. (1999) suggested that Arctic sea ice in the mid 1990s had thinned by about 42 percent of the average 1958-1977 thickness. C. M.V. J. The IPCC reports the Rothrock finding but then reports that other more recent studies found “the reduction in ice thickness was not gradual. 1999.. and trends. Drobot. Journal of Climate 14: 255-267. M. and Mysak.A. Cavalieri. Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 20.V. G. Bhatt.. Garrett. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 1287-1290. Geophysical Research Letters 29: 10. K. Part II: Some oceanic and atmospheric effects in middle and high latitudes. M.. Climate states and variability of Arctic ice and water dynamics during 1946-1997. R.V. “no significant trend” in mean seaice thickness was found.. Parkinson. Rogers. Robock.856.2. I.. 2000. T. Melvold.Y. H. T. 1999. areas. rivers. and Vincent. Polyakov.C. Polar Research 18: 135-142.V. F.2..837-20. K. p. 2003. M. I. A. U. in Winsor’s words. 145°W).761-25.J. M. Anomalies and trends of sea ice extent and atmospheric circulation in the Nordic Seas during the period 1864-1998.2. Trends and variability of sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait.. Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 25.O. Karklin. and Yulin..Observations: Glaciers. Arctic sea ice extents. one centered at the North Pole (>87° N) and one in the central part of the Beaufort Sea (centered at approximately 76° N.. D. Johnson. K. Venegas. Gloersen. 1999. J.L. annual variability in sea ice thickness was greater than at the North Pole but once again.A.P. Johannessen et al... Bhatt. and Zakharov. Two years after Johannessen et al. H. and modeling work together to clarify perceived changes to Arctic sea ice. J.. Winsor (2001) analyzed a more comprehensive set of Arctic sea-ice data obtained from six submarine cruises conducted between 1991 and 1997 that had covered the central Arctic Basin from 76° N to 90° N. Wang. Johnson.. J. Combining the North Pole results with the results of an earlier study. (1999). 353).. Serreze.A....L.G. J..A. S. Polyakov.788. theory. 2000. Colony. Monthly Weather Review 107: 509-519. Pinglot. Arctic Oscillation and Arctic Sea-Ice Oscillation. found that essentially all of the drop occurred rather abruptly over a single period of not more than three years (1987/88-1990/91) and possibly only one year (1989/90-1990/91). and van Loon.L. I.A. A. Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent. 2002. M. Walsh. Holloway and Sou (2002) explored “how observations. Walsh. Rothrock et al. Karklin.1029/2001GL011111. C. Science 286: 19341937. and Sea Level    Parkinson.V. and a linear regression of the data revealed a “slight increasing trend for the whole period. T.J... 2001.V. S..V...P. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. they found that for 159 ..

Kwok. in the mean.” and that the “timing and tracks of the shallow Arctic shelves. and decreased the fraction of thick-ridged ice within the not statistically significant at the 95% level. was that “the volume estimated in 2000 is close to the changes in Arctic ice cover will be open to question. Kara. “no linear trend [in dwindling ice pack. based on monthly fields they put it. (2003) used an eight-year time series index) [Walsh et al.” while They also note that the rapid change in ice dynamics noting that “in the Kara and Chukchi Seas trends are that occurred between 1988 and 1990 was “in positive. and loss of volume from the mid-1980s to the midthermodynamically driven. the Barents Sea and In the same year. which different studies of sea-ice cover.0 years from 1990-91 through 1996-97. using a Lagrangian perspective that that readily redistribute Arctic ice create a recurring “shows the complexities of ice drift response to pattern whereby ice shifts between the central Arctic variations in atmospheric conditions. these results were reconfirmed by Polyakov et Pfirman et al. Zhang et al. and Greenland Seas. who reported that the available fast-ice ice thinning observed between the 1980s and 1990s.” altimeters carried aboard ERS-1 and 2 satellites to Lastly. and of greater amplitude. and was deemed by later.” A year central basin of the Arctic. ice travel Siberian. (2002) Canadian Archipelago. Chukchi.” and (3) showed that “sea ice mass can change by up to 16% within one year. 2000.” but stating that “these trends are system and a strengthening of the European Arctic not statistically significant at the 95% confidence low (a shift from lower North Atlantic level.” Strait and. and in the Laptev and East Siberian Seas response to a weakening of the Beaufort high pressure trends are negative. (1993-2001) of Arctic sea-ice thickness data derived 1997. Gagnon frequency. in 1963 thickness occur on much longer timescales than and 1993. “unlikely. respectively.” warming.” the mid-1960s. variability in sea ice 1990s.” (2) undermined “the measurements of ice thickness and associated weather conclusion from numerical models that changes in ice conditions that began and ended.5°N. This study revealed that fast-ice thickness This enhanced rate of export of old ice to Fram Strait trends in the different seas were “relatively small. as dynamics from 1979-1997.” volume estimated in 1950.. East determined that within the central Arctic. They also landfast-ice data obtained from the Kara. Laptev. 62°N.. especially in the Canadian indicated that “large amounts of sea ice form over sector. (2003). are transported across the submarine surveys missed this dominant mode of central basin and are exported primarily through Fram variability.” 160 . Proshutinsky and Johnson. East Hudson Bay region “has been omitted from those Siberian. Rigor et al. including the Beaufort. Polyakov et al. concluded that “errors are noting their results indicated “increasing volume to present in current simulations of Arctic sea ice.Climate Change Reconsidered    which finding “contrasts with the concept of a slowly the last half of the past century. produced by greenhouse Arctic sea ice volume] over 50 years is appropriate.” They suggest that the Pfirman et al. in a paper on landfast ice in Canada’s determine the mean thickness and variability of Arctic Hudson Bay.” The net effect of this behavior. duration. and region covers the entire circumference of the Arctic thickness in the Northern Hemisphere. They also report that “varying winds Buoy Program.” Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation to higher NAO/OA Laxon et al. in their words. thickness. Barents.” Laxon et al. and future. (2004) analyzed Arctic sea-ice drift initial inferred rapid thinning of Arctic sea ice was. Laptev. then a properly reproduce the observed high-frequency. but only 3. decadal variability without significant stating in their closing sentence that “until models trend from the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s. 1996. Gagnon and Gough (2006) cite nine sea ice between latitudes 65° and 81. records “do not show a significant trend.” This analysis and peripheral regions. to be responsible for some of the seaal. simulations of both recent. studies with the exception of Parkinson et al. (1999). from the Beaufort Gyre over the latter period positive or negative in sign at different locations.” consistent with the employed newly available long-term Russian observations of several other investigators. changes in ice extent. 2000. than simulated and Gough then analyzed long-term weekly by regional Arctic models.0 years from 1984-85 through 1988variability in the Arctic environment poleward of 89. from measurements of ice freeboard made by radar 2002].” These real-world observations (1) revealed “an For 13 stations located on the shores of Hudson Bay interannual variability in ice thickness at higher (seven) and surrounding nearby lakes (six). and Chuckchi Seas to investigate trends and times averaged 4.” due to problems arising from of ice motion obtained from the International Arctic under-sampling. noting that the Ocean.. to lesser degrees.

areas. and Gough.Observations: Glaciers. and Miles. Johnson. can be found at http://www. J. Dumas et al.8 m over 2 years (1974-76). A.co2science. A...V.S.A. A. M. Gloersen. Arctic sea ice extent.B. M. Peacock.1029/2004GL020063. E. Cavalieri. for example. J. Z. U. D.856. while a slight thinning lacking statistical significance was observed on the eastern side.514. I.V. M. Walsh. O. Alekseev.” with “increasing maximum ice thickness at a number of stations” being “correlated to earlier freeze-up due to negative temperature trends in autumn. 1978-1996..L.1029/2003GL017433. 2002. T. and Sea Level    Results of the study revealed that a “statistically significant thickening of the ice cover over time was detected on the western side of Hudson Bay. References Dumas.. 1999. Two circulation regimes of the wind driven Arctic Ocean.V. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. 2003. Cambridge..” It will likely be a number of years before anything definitive can be said about CO2-induced global warming on the basis of the thickness of Arctic sea-ice. S.J.. Karklin. M. G. 2004. Recent changes in Arctic Ocean sea ice motion associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Shalina.493-12. Bekryaev.. East-west asymmetry in long-term trends of landfast ice thickness in the Hudson Bay region. Johnson. Sea Ice.” Gagnon and Gough say “this contradiction must be addressed in regional climate change impact assessments. Johannessen. was “related to the variability of air temperature. Proshutinsky.. Polyakov.. Holloway.. Rather. Has Arctic Sea Ice Rapidly Thinned? Journal of Climate 15: 1691-1701. Canada. V. 2006. Geophysical Research Letters 29: 10. H. reducing heat conduction and thereby ice growth. Climate Research 32: 177-186..A.A.. Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 20.V. Whether any portion of possible past sea ice thinning was due to global warming is consequently still impossible to know. 2007. and trends. Qin. Kwok.php. Pfirman. and Johnson. Averyt. I.P. Colony.P. D. Colony. irrespective of past or future changes in the air’s CO2 content. and Comiso. including reviews of newer publications as they become subject/s/seaicearcticthick. In describing an earlier regime shift. Laxon. U. Tignor. Colony. G.W.. Solomon. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. G. NY.” These observations suggest that much of the reported thinning of Arctic sea ice that occurred in the 1990s—if real. and Weaver. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. United Kingdom and New York.P. Walsh.1029/2001GL011111. M. R.. M.6 m over 4 years (1970-74) [was] followed by an abrupt increase of roughly 0. Alekseev. Haxby. Additional information on this topic.A.F.. Parkinson. snow depth. S. N.. 2003. Satellite evidence for an Arctic sea ice cover in transformation. High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region. V. and Miller. Variability in Arctic sea ice drift.. Nature 425: 947-950. and Yulin A.L. K. (2003) noted that “a sharp decrease in ice thickness of roughly 0. D.M. Journal of Climate 16: 2078-2085. D.J. IPCC.V. Science 286: 1937-1939..V. of which there have been several in decades past and will likely be several in decades to come. and Yulin. A. Bhatt.M. Marquis. and Rigor.” This asymmetry. 2000. R. W. “because the snow cover insulates the ice surface. and Smith.A. Karklin.. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.837-20. Makshtas.” and with high snow accumulation being associated with low ice thickness.. M. R.. J. A. 1999. Journal of Geophysical Research 102: 12.. and the dates of ice freezeup and break-up. and Sou. P. I. other than that its impact on sea-ice thickness is too small to be detected at the present time. Manning.V. R.L. as per Winsor (2001)—was not the result of CO2-induced global warming. Long-term ice variability in Arctic marginal seas. S. R. G. (Eds... 2002.. in their words.V. D. W. R. Bhatt.C. C. 161 . The impact of varying atmospheric forcing on the thickness of arctic multi-year sea ice. 2003. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 775-778. Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming.S.) Cambridge University Press... and to the reduction in sea-ice extent and thickness observed in other regions of the Arctic.Y.” Noting that their findings “are in contrast to the projections from general circulation models. Gagnon. Bekryaev. Polyakov. it was a natural consequence of changes in ice dynamics caused by an atmospheric regime shift. 1997. Precipitation. for temporal variability in Arctic sea-ice behavior is simply too great to allow such a small and slowly developing signal to be detected yet. Flato.V. Zwally. Chen...

J. M. (2002) have written that “both theoretical arguments and models suggest that net high-latitude precipitation increases in proportion to increases in mean hemispheric temperature. 1996. Y.W.) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.A.A. 1999.A. Cambridge University Press. D. starting with Africa. 2002.Climate Change Reconsidered    Rigor. P.3. Senior. Kunkel (2003) says “several studies have argued that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will result in an increase of heavy precipitation (Cubasch et al.J. 2001. Delclaux. Changes in the extremes of climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO2doubling.. V. Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling: Implications for rainfall rates with climate change. S.T. Wallace. I. Additional information on this subject. Zhang. and Maykut. In: Houghton.. Zwiers. Geophysics Research Letters 26: 3469-3472. Journal of Climate 11: 2200-2222. Chapman. B. Science 298: 2171-2173.W. Climate 15: 2648-2663. Peterson et al.J. Response of sea ice to the Arctic oscillation. Stouffer. F. Journal of Climate 7: 5-23.. S.M. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 1039-1041. Kharin.V.” citing the works of Manabe and Stouffer (1994) and Rahmstorf and Ganopolski (1999). and Polcher. 2000). C.php..W. C. R.A. Journal of p/subject_p. Peterson.” Many scientists are examining historical precipitation records in an effort to determine how temperature changes of the past millennium have impacted these aspects of earth’s hydrologic cycle. Lebel. A. V. and Kharin. Vorosmarty.L. Trenberth. Ding. Griggs. Maskell. Lammers. Boer. Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model. H. R. 1998. E.. From GCM scales to hydrological scales: rainfall variability in West Africa. C.. 1998. Kharin and Zwiers.V.J. Shiklomanov. 2001. P.J. R. U. 2002.. G. R.L. Noda..E. Similarly. J.S. S. Winsor. Recent decrease of sea level pressure in the central Arctic. Raper. Projections of future climate change.I. Trenberth. Manabe.1029/2005GL025231. 2000. Linder.. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 14: 275-295.co2science. Journal of Climate 13: 3670-3688. Shiklomanov.. Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. K. (2006) state that “warming is predicted to enhance atmospheric moisture storage resulting in increased net precipitation. K. Dai. Thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover... 1999. A. Contributions of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge. Le Barbé. S. C. Holmes. and Ganopolski. and Shy. and Yap..J.. J. 4.. Zwiers and Kharin. and Steele. G.. 2006. Climatic Change 39: 667-694. Climatic Change 43: 353-367. Meehl. Lammers. F. M.. Multiple-century response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. 2000..” citing as the basis for this statement the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (2005). Yu. and Gordon.. and Stouffer. I. Frolking. Geophysical Research Letters 33: 10.J. J. Dix. F.J. 1998). References Cubasch. Yonetani and Gordon.L. R.M.. 2001. K.. Rawlins et al. 1994. J.. C. Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. D. and Zwiers. W.J. Y. 162 .A. Journal of Climate 9: 480-486. X. Rothrock. Rawlins. UK. T.. and Colony. including reviews on precipitation topics not discussed here. A.... 2000.. Noguer.G. Precipitation Trends In spite of the fact that global circulation models (GCMs) have failed to accurately reproduce observed patterns and totals of precipitation (Lebel et al. 1998. can be found at http://www.L. M. T.. In this section. M.B.B. Recent changes in Arctic sea ice: The interplay between ice dynamics and thermodynamics. S. and Vorosmarty. Journal of Climate 13: 3099-3114.E. D. (Eds. model predictions of imminent CO2-induced global warming often suggest that this phenomenon should lead to increases in rainfall amounts and intensities. L. we review what some of them have learned about rainfall across the globe. McClelland.A. 2001. Willmott. T.. Simulated changes in the frequency of extremes and regional features of seasonal/annual temperature and precipitation when atmospheric CO2 is doubled. G. R. 2001. Journal of Climate 14: 17651779. van der Linden. Shiklomanov.J. Yonetani. Arctic sea ice thickness remained constant during the 1990s. J. Walsh. Evaluation of trends in derived snowfall and rainfall across Eurasia and linkages with discharge to the Arctic Ocean.B. and Rahmstorf.. A. Rothrock. Rahmstorf. and Johnson..

Trenberth.” Over the earth as a whole. there was an overall decrease of about 0. 1997. including reviews of newer publications as they become subject/p/precipglobal. “precipitation over land increased by about 2% over the period 1900-1998 (Dai et al. 1998). 2001).. he concludes that on a globally averaged basis. In doing so. Additional information on this topic.” New et al. whereas state-of-the-art climate models nearly always predict more precipitation in a warming world. (2006) used empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to study annual GPCP-derived precipitation variations over the period of record. Global Huntington (2006) notes there is “a theoretical expectation that climate warming will result in increases in evaporation and precipitation.co2science. for the entire century. 1999. therefore. with a record length now over 26 years beginning 1979 (Huffman et al. “in warm event years. it would appear from Smith et al. the data of Neng et al. report that “the mode 3 variations average to near zero. after which it declined by about the same amount to 1992 (taking it well below the century-long mean). (2001) also reviewed several global precipitation datasets. in the words of the researchers.1. However. as well as from the other studies described above. For the oceanic portion of the world between 30°N and 30°S. even under the supposedly highly favorable thermal conditions of the last quarter-century. over the period 1979-2004. they say that the trends were associated “with increased tropical precipitation over the Pacific and Indian Oceans associated with local warming of the sea.. that one of the major theoretical expectations of the climate modeling community remains unfulfilled. they found some regions experienced more rainfall in warm ENSO years. which is 70 percent covered by water..” Consequently. can be found at http://www. there was indeed a slight increase in global land area precipitation.” As for the variations that were not associated with ENSO and that did exhibit trends. Loaciga et al. and Sea Level    4. In their case. but that it increased from 1901 to the mid-1950s. For the world as a whole. Sea Ice. Hence. Globally. Hulme et al. Smith et al.’s study. Mode 1 was associated with mature ENSO conditions and correlated strongly with the Southern Oscillation Index. Adler et al. Arnell et al.” and in reviewing the scientific literature on precipitation.. analyzing the information they contain to obtain a picture of precipitation patterns over the twentieth century. found that most of the precipitation variations in their global dataset were “associated with ENSO and have no trend.php 163 .’s study depict just the opposite effect over the land area of the globe. Neng et al. but since 1915 there was essentially no net change. they determined that precipitation over the land area of the globe was mostly below the century-long mean over the first decade-and-a-half of the record. Concentrating on the last half of the twentieth century. there may well have been a slight decrease in precipitation since about 1917 or 1918. Most recently—and noting that “the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has produced merged satellite and in situ global precipitation estimates.” so that “the global average change [was] near zero. the land area where the annual rainfall was reduced is far greater than that where the annual rainfall was increased. 2003)”—Smith et al. leading to the hypothesis that one of the major consequences will be an intensification (or acceleration) of the water cycle (DelGenio et al. they note that this increased precipitation was “balanced by decreased precipitation in other regions. and the reduction is more significant than the increase.. the record of which begins in 1920. 1996. so this mode does not represent any net change in the amount of precipitation over the analysis period. Smith et al. 2000. Precipitation. whereupon it recovered and edged upward towards the century mean. Held and Soden..Observations: Glaciers.3 percent per decade.. (2002) analyzed data from 1948 to 2000 in a quest to determine the effect of warm ENSO years on annual precipitation over the land area of the globe. 1997. Mode 3 was uncorrelated with ENSO but was associated with tropical trend-like changes that were correlated with interdecadal warming of tropical sea surface temperatures.” However. while Mode 2 was associated with the strong warm ENSO episodes of 1982/83 and 1997/98. they found that the first three EOFs accounted for 52 percent of the observed variance in the precipitation data.” Consequently.3. while others experienced less. In doing so. when the IPCC claims the world warmed at a rate and to a degree that was unprecedented over the past two millennia. whereupon it remained above the century-long mean until the 1970s. 1991.

and Dongdong. T.F.” . DelGenio. 2006. R. J. (Eds..A. however. X.G. Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis. Ferraro. and Jones. the drought began to weaken and floods became “continually high. Mailu. (2000) also examined hydrologic conditions in equatorial East Africa. Garvey.. O.J. and the latter half of the twentieth century has seen an enhanced hydrologic cycle with a return of some lake levels to the high stands of the mid to late 1800s.E. and Johns.. T. Luwen. T. but over a much longer time scale.. Nature 351: 382-385. which began sometime prior to 1800. and DelGenio. M. Surface observed global land precipitation variations during 19001998.. Held. Janowiak. da Cunha. The drought did not last long. Leary. 2003. A. Osborn. 1998. Arnell. K. C... A. However. Adaptation and Vulnerability.. Neng. Vogel. Adler. Dai. B. R. G. Variations in annual global precipitation (1979-2004).J. Journal of Hydrology 319: 83-95. Todd. 1997. and White.A. D. K. 164 Smith. Lacis. Rudolf.F. S...M.. Journal of Hydrology 174: 83-127. Liu. I. M. A. 4.. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) combined data set.J.Climate Change Reconsidered    References Adler.. 1997. D.. i. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 19: 993-1003. Geophysical Research Letters 33: 10. Journal of Hydrometeorology 4: 11471167. Bolvin. Huffman. Huffman. 1991. Rudolf. Simulations of the effect of a warmer climate on atmospheric humidity... J.. M. J.W. A. A.C. I.” nor any evidence of “abrupt shifts during the 20th century. Nicholson and Yin (2001) report there have been “two starkly contrasting climatic episodes” in the equatorial region of East Africa since the late 1700s. Chang. Water vapor feedback and global warming. In: McCarthy. the authors conclude there were “no significant changes in the January-March rainfall totals... They report the region was significantly drier than it is today during the Medieval Warm Period from AD 1000 to 1270. Yin. Gruber. 1996.3.” suggesting that rainfall trends in southern Africa do not appear to have been influenced by CO2-induced—or any other type of—global warming.. E.2. P. 2001. and Schneider. Climatic Change 42: 327-339.. U. Cambridge. finding that interannual variability was higher for the periods 1900-1933 and 1970-1998. Huntington. The strongest rainfall anomalies (greater than two standard deviations) were observed at the beginning of the century.” Extremely low lake levels were the norm. Schneider. Shiklomanov. Curtis.. based on the Global Precipitation Climatology Project 2. I. 15601625. Journal of Climate 10: 2943-2962.. The Third Assessment Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Gruber.. Chang. P.. pp. Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century. Hydrology and water resources. and Schwarz. Compagnucci. Ferraro. S. C.) Climate Change 2001: Impacts. and Arkin. In the mid to latter part of the 1800s.J.J. R..e. this latter period was interrupted by three episodes of prolonged dryness: 1390-1420. a full thousand years. and Gruber.. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 5-20. 133-191. and 1760-1840. Xie. however.. L. R. Precipitation sensitivity to global warming: comparisons of observations with HadCM2 simulations. 2006.S. (2001) analyzed summer (JanuaryMarch) rainfall totals in southern Africa over the period 1900-1998. 2000. B.. A. International Journal of Climatology 21: 18991922. Dokken.A.. The first. and Ruedy. M. These “episodes of persistent aridity. New. A. Geophysical Research Letters 25: 3379-3382.” but by the turn of the century lake levels began to fall as mild drought conditions returned. R. were “more severe than any recorded drought of the twentieth century. Cambridge.. and Soden. Verschuren et al. Africa Richard et al. as drought reached its extreme during the 1820s and 1830s. UK. Loaciga. but lower for the period 1934-1969.-P. Hulme.D. Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate change.. Susskind. A..” according to the authors.F. G.. J. G. Nelkin. X. R. 2002. and Stakhiv. T.1029/2005GL025393. Canziani. University Press.. while it was relatively wet during the Little Ice Age from AD 1270 to 1850. Global warming and the hydrologic cycle. N. J. H. Trenberth.. Valdes.. 1999. Hanaki. A.. A. Annual Review of Energy and Environment 25: 441-475.. was characterized by “drought and desiccation.M. R.A. Fung. 2001.5° analysis. H. P. Howe. K.B. U. B. The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). E. N.D. However.Y. McNab. A preliminary study on the global land annual precipitation associated with ENSO during 1948-2000. Hulme.J. C.

likely due to increased occurrences of cool. Holmgren. Y.. Contemporaneously. S. the four researchers concluded that the theoretical model-based assumption that “increased temperature leads to high precipitation . 2001.. teleconnections with oceanic and atmospheric conditions. I. heavy rainfall was most frequent during the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries.. Climatic Change 48: 387-398. when she states that “the 3 decades of dry conditions evidenced in the Sahel are not in themselves evidence of irreversible global change.Observations: Glaciers.” Here. increase in rainfall over the course of the record. A. Verschuren. C. Rainfall conditions in equatorial East Africa during the Nineteenth Century as inferred from the record of Lake Victoria. Fauchereau.” at least for the part of the western Arctic that was the focus of their analysis. In addition.. Precipitation.” and that “a similar dry episode prevailed during most of the first half of the 19th century. she says.100 years.C. 20th century droughts in southern Africa: Spatial and temporal variability. In analyzing the climate of the past two centuries.” Why not? Because an even longer period of similar dry conditions occurred between 1800 and 1850. K. Lamoureux (2000) analyzed varved lake sediments obtained from Nicolay Lake.. Nicholson.D. Richard. S. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 4507-4510. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Poccard. particularly since the 1980s. 2001).” However. Partridge.php. Nicholson (2001) reports that the most significant climatic change that has occurred “has been a long-term reduction in rainfall in the semi-arid regions of West Africa... and Cumming. and Tyson. as well as the Arctic as a whole.. There is no reason to think that the past two. Cornwall Island. Rapid climate shifts in the southern African interior throughout the mid to late Holocene.F. Alaska) that began in 1949.. but that “the observed mean increase varies strongly from month-to-month making it difficult to explain the annual trend solely on the basis of an anthropogenic effect resulting from the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. K. but statistically insignificant. 2001. and Sea Level    The dry episode of the late eighteenth/early nineteenth centuries recorded in Eastern Africa has also been identified in Western Africa.3.-E.co2science.. (2006) calculated trends in the spatially averaged water equivalent of annual rainfall and snowfall across the six largest Eurasian drainage basins that feed major rivers that 165 . M. they report that temperatures in the western Arctic increased. subject/p/precipafrica. and Yin. Laird.E. International Journal of Climatology 21: 873-885. B. and Trzaska. Rouault. even in Africa (LeeThorp et al. which were the coldest periods of the past 400 years in the Canadian High Arctic.. in a part of the planet predicted to be most impacted by CO2-induced global warming—the Canadian High Arctic—a warming of the climate is demonstrated to reduce weather extremes related to precipitation..” The importance of these findings is best summarized by Nicholson herself.. The results were suggestive of a small. Nature 403: 410-414. However. Sea Ice. when the earth was still in the clutches of the Little Ice Age. is not valid. can be found at http://www.R. wet synoptic types during the coldest periods of the Little Ice Age.E. Most recently. S. P. Moberg. 2001. Linge. Lamoureux found that “more frequent extremes and increased variance in yield occurred during the 17th and 19th centuries. References Lee-Thorp. Lauritzen. “three decades of protracted aridity. Climatic and environmental change in Africa during the last two centuries. finding that both the frequency and mean intensity of precipitation at these two locations decreased over the period of record. 4. S. 2001. Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1.3.” Be that as it may.. N. Rawlins et al. she goes on to note that “the rainfall conditions over Africa during the last 2 to 3 decades are not unprecedented. H. (1998) examined a number of climatic variables at two first-order Arctic weather stations (Barrow and Barter three-decade Sahelian drought is unusual or caused by the putative higher temperatures of that period. 2000. J. Nicholson. D. Nunavut..” There have been. which were compared with rainfall events recorded at a nearby weather station over the period 1948-1978 and thereby used to reconstruct a rainfall history for the surrounding region over the 487-year period from 1500 to 1987. X.” which has been “on the order of 20 to 40% in parts of the Sahel. Arctic Curtis et al. Climate Research 17: 123-144. Additional information on this topic.A.” and “nearly all of Africa has been affected . Canada. T.

temperatures are projected to rise under all scenarios Annual snowfall. they report “there is 2004) decline in total precipitation. emphasis on Barrow and Barter Island. therefore. recorded at the Tokyo Observatory of the Japan Precipitation decrease in the western Arctic. Wendler. their plots of maximum hourly precipitation and the number of extreme hourly precipitation events rise fairly regularly from the 1890s to peak in the 1940s.” but only “until the late to “increased variability and strength of the Asian 1950s. can be found at http://www. 1998. Arctic Climate in the variability of monsoon rainfall over India. and Kane.3. according to the IPCC. S. G. [was] determined in Eurasian-basin snowfall over the they examined Indian monsoon rainfall using entire 64-year period.” High Arctic recorded in lacustrine varves. reviews of newer publications as they become Kripalani et al. S. either (1) variability of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) nor the theoretical arguments and model predictions that the epochal changes are affected by the global suggest that “high-latitude precipitation increases in warming. 2004.” To see if there is any sign of such a significant decrease. it exhibited “a moderately monsoon. with special Meteorological Agency for the period 1890-1999. Their results indicated that annual rainfall across the total area of the six basins decreased Kripalani et al. they note that this finding is below normal rainfall. around the 1940s is even stronger/more frequent than in the 1990s. Asia 1999. intensity of heavy precipitation events are projected to Compatibility analysis of precipitation and runoff trends increase in a warming world...” which epochs “tend to last for “consistent with the reported (Berezovskaya et al.co2science. or (2) late statistically significant trend in IMR for the country twentieth century temperatures may not have been as a whole. exhibited “a of future energy use. and Dutton.. D. Any or all of these choices fail cyclonic disturbances over the Bay of Bengal and the to provide support for a key claim of the IPCC.” no clear evidence to suggest that the strength and In light of the findings reviewed above. Kanae et al. about three decades. 2005. Stone. hypothesized by [the] greenhouse warming scenario in model simulations. leading strongly significant increase. New York. according to the IPCC. was that annual total precipitation from 306 stations distributed across the country. (2004) note that the number and Berezovskaya. Arabian Sea using 100-year (1890-1999) data and Additional information on this topic. (above 20 mm/hour) occurred in the 1990s compared Lamoureux. Five centuries of interannual with the 1970s and the 1980s. “the 1990s seems to be unprecedented.” In addition. over the large Siberian watersheds. 2000. Yang.” They further report that “Singh (2001) much warmer than those of the mid-1930s and 40s. Water Resources However.” In addition. Alaska.” As a result. including found significant decreasing trends. USA.. D.” Impact Assessment—Special Report.” and that against that sediment yield and rainfall-induced erosion in the Canadian backdrop. they say that “the analysis of observed data for the 131-year period References (1871-2001) suggests no clear role of global warming Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. conclude that “there seem[s] to be no available.1029/20004GL021277.” In fact. J.” The researchers’ bottom-line observational data for the period 1871-2001 obtained support for the intensification of the monsoon nor any support for the increased hydrological cycle as subject/p/preciparctic. R. E. New York.” so that “no significant change precipitation response in real-world measurements.4. after which declines set in 166 . or investigated the long term trends in the frequency of (3) both of the above. They report “many hourly heavy precipitation events International Journal of Climatology 18: 1687-1707. concluded two years earlier.” Thereafter.L.Climate Change Reconsidered    deliver water to the Arctic Ocean for the period 19364.” They also report that “studies by several proportion to increases in mean hemispheric authors in India have shown that there is no temperature” are not incredibly robust. (2003) note that globally averaged consistently and significantly over the 64-year period.php. They (including both rainfall and snowfall) decreased over discovered “distinct alternate epochs of above and the period of their study. they note that “hourly heavy precipitation Research 36: 309-318. Geophysical Research They investigate this climate-model-derived Letters 31: 10. on the other hand. hypothesis with digitalized hourly precipitation data Curtis. Cambridge University much as Kripalani and Kulkarni (2001) had Press.

2003. Changes in hourly heavy precipitation at Tokyo from 1890 to 1999.P. E. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 82: 241247. Taking a longer view of the subject. and Khandekar. Natural Hazards 29: 189-206. Sabade. the period that preceded the Industrial Revolution stood out.” Going back even further in time.. R. Journal of Climate 14: 872-881. Nature 411: 290-293.J. With respect to more extreme events. T. Touchan. they report that spectral analysis of the data revealed significant periodicities around 12 and 20-24 years.R. D. subject/p/precipasia. 89. N. Analyses of both standard deviations and five-year intervals of extreme wet and dry periods of this record revealed that “variations over the recent period of instrumental data are not unusual relative to the prior record. 2001. N.D.” but they report that “dry periods of 1-2 years were well distributed throughout the record” and that the same was true of wet periods of one to two years’ duration.. In fact. evidence from Asia provides no support for the claim that precipitation in a warming world becomes more variable and intense. Additional information on this topic. Erkan.S. Kripalani. occurred prior to the Modern Warm Period. B. U. Fleitmann. 2004. B. Oki. one of which extended from 1776 to 1998 and one from 1339 to 1998.. conclude there is “solid evidence” that both signals are responding to solar forcing.” and a spectral analysis of the data revealed statistically significant periodicities centered on 779. In conclusion. in other words.. can be found at http://www.. “possible evidence for solar influences in these reconstructions for northeastern Mongolia. 2003. (2001) used tree-ring chronologies from northeastern Mongolia to reconstruct annual precipitation and streamflow histories for the period 1651-1995. in their words. Burns.. International Journal of Climatology 23: 157-171.. Kulkarni.H. Kripalani. M. suggesting. because variations in 14C tree-ring records are generally attributed to variations in solar activity. Neff et al. Preliminary reconstructions of spring precipitation in southwestern Turkey from tree-ring width.” while the longest period of reconstructed spring drought was the four-year period 1476-79. Touchan et al. Mangini.Observations: Glaciers.600 to 6. A. Singh. including reviews of newer publications as they become available.M. 18   167 . Cook. and 10.M.. G. Neff. and Buckley.C. and because of the 14C record’s strong correlation with the δ18O record. Hydrometeorological reconstructions for northeastern Mongolia derived from tree rings: 1651-1995. Long term trends in the frequency of monsoonal cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian ocean. R. S.4 years for the 14C record. Hughes.S. and Matter. 2001. as well as the closely corresponding results of their spectral analyses. 126.M. and 87 years for the δ O record and periodicities of 206. 2001. however. O. M. A. Sea Ice. S.. 205. Pederson. M. R. and Sea Level  that bottom out in the 1970s and then reverse to rise to endpoints in the 1990s that are not yet as high as the peaks of the 1940s. These reconstructions. in their words. Precipitation. Jacoby.co2science. D’Arrigo.K. They found the correlation between the two datasets was “extremely strong. that the reconstructions “appear to show more frequent extended wet periods in more recent decades. Funkhouser. “show clear evidence of multi-year to decadal variations in spring precipitation. 134. 148. 26.php. Mausam 52: 655-658. A. and Wallin. Indian monsoon variability in a global warming scenario. and the single driest spring was 1746. Turkey’s greatest precipitation extremes. Consequently.100 years ago). (2003) developed two reconstructions of spring (MayJune) precipitation for southwestern Turkey from tree-ring width measurements. 2001. International Journal of Climatology 21: 603-616.. using the relationship between a 14C tree-ring record and a δ18O proxy record of monsoon rainfall intensity as recorded in calcite δ18O data obtained from a stalagmite in northern Oman.. A. Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago. R. which is just the opposite of what the IPCC claims about extreme weather and its response to global warming. Neff et al. in some cases it tends to suggest just the opposite and provides support for the proposition that precipitation responds to cyclical variations in solar activity.. They say “all of the wettest 5year periods occurred prior to 1756.H.” In addition. G. G. Meko. and Kashida.. Mudelsee. (2001) looked much further back in time (from 9.L. D.” The authors do state. S. A. References Kanae. and Kulkarni... Monsoon rainfall variations and teleconnections over south and east Asia.” but they say this observation “does not demonstrate unequivocal evidence of an increase in precipitation as suggested by some climate models. Pederson et al.

Their efforts revealed significant yearly Solomina. say no trend in precipitation Andalusia. Mediterranean covering a full millennium and a half. variations. 2005.H.2. Solomina et al. Central “near-average with relatively few extreme values” from about the middle 1700s to the early 1800s and Koning and Franses (2005) conducted a detailed again since about 1920. R. The most notable anomaly of analysis of a century of daily precipitation data the 1500-year reconstruction was an “extremely wet” acquired at the de Bilt meteorological station in the period that occurred between AD 1050 and 1250. A 500 March-August precipitation was substantially greater year dendroclimatic reconstruction of spring-summer than the long-term average during the periods 1730precipitation from the lower Bavarian Forest region.5.co2science. there was little   evidence of a long-term trend. D’Arrigo. J. thus ending up with a history of the NAO from 1501 to 1997. after (southern Spain) from 1501 to 1997. In describing their stronger in winter than in other seasons of the year in findings.php. Germany. Europe precipitation values from the tree-ring series revealed year-to-year and decadal variability. including not find qualitatively different results. The RCS reconstruction. after which they which they utilized this chronology to correctly date developed a relationship between seasonal rainfall and correlate with an earlier precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the reconstruction derived from a sediment core taken in period 1851-1997.3.H. 2005. and decadal variability in the SPL chronology. P. Netherlands. Once again. located on the northern coast of the Black data to reconstruct seasonal rainfall in Andalusia Sea in the Ukraine.” They warming. and 1810-1870. Geophysical Research Letters 32: wetter or drier conditions over the 500-year period. This work proxy precipitation record for the region that stretched revealed that the NAO influence on climate is all the way back to AD 500. Also. G. was designed to retain decadal and higher frequency Koning. and Esper. Luckman. describe as broadly coinciding nonparametric techniques. Rodrigo et al. Solomina et al. O. the reconstructed 4.. and 4. (2005) derived the first tree-ring reconstruction of Starting at the western extreme of the continent. better captured lower frequency March-August precipitation chronology based on subject/p/precipeurope. (2005) developed two versions of a available. Journal of Climate 18: 4701-4714. on the other hand. precipitation levels remained constant throughout the The results of these several analyses demonstrate period 1906-2002. and Jacoby. Netherlands’ five other meteorological stations “did Additional information on this topic. but Tree-ring reconstruction of Crimean drought and lake there did not appear to be any trend toward either chronology correction.. suggesting that Wilson.3. Are precipitation variations.1. average during the periods 1500-1560. while the second version used regional levels getting higher? Statistical evidence for the curve standardization (RCS) to retain lower frequency Netherlands. Moving still further east in Central Europe. standardized References with a fixed 80-year spline function (SPL). can be found at http://www. and Franses. 2005. which they used to reconstruct a 1931 from nearby Saki Lake. (2001) used a variety of documentary peninsula. but remained 4. spring (April-July) precipitation for the Crimean Rodrigo et al. A. for the period 1620-2002. living and historical tree-ring widths obtained from the Bavarian Forest of southeast Germany for the period 1456-2001.Climate Change Reconsidered    the tree-sampling site. enhanced precipitation was not observed in report that similar analyses they performed for the Central Europe.1029/2005GL023335. however. make a point of noting instrumental record obtained at a location adjacent to that “the recent positive temperature anomalies over 168 .J. when humidity was distribution function of annual maximum higher than during the instrumental era. leading them to conclude that that over the period of twentieth century global “precipitation levels are not getting higher. explaining 40 percent of the total variance was evident over the period 1896-1988 in an in precipitation. 1610-1730. B. Using what they call “robust which Solomina et al. Davi.J. International Journal of Climatology 25: 6111810 and 1870-2000 and drier than the long-term 630. 10.” reviews of newer publications as they become Wilson et al.5.” they found the cumulative with the Medieval Warm Epoch.3.. N. The first version. R.

Tomozeiu et al. they report that “impact frequency also decreased. “increased land-surface stability will be the result. they cite Rodrigo et al. (2004) analyzed a number of twentieth century datasets from throughout Bulgaria. comparing their results with those of other such studies conducted in neighboring regions. “the landscape of southern Italy and the west-central Mediterranean will become increasingly stable. Strong correlation between this component and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) suggested. This work revealed that nearly all of the stations experienced significant decreases in winter precipitation over the 35-year period of study. while flood frequency peaked at 1. (2002) performed a series of statistical tests to investigate the nature and potential causes of trends in winter (DecFeb) mean precipitation recorded at 40 stations over the period 1960-1995.Observations: Glaciers. revealing a principal component that represented a common large-scale process that was likely responsible for the phenomenon. the majority of all stations exhibited no trends in extreme rainfall at any of the durations tested. For each of these periods. Nevertheless.   Working in northern Italy.” In addition.” Using analyses of tree-ring data and their connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation. as well as resultant flood events and landslide events. none had positive trends at all durations and one had negative trends at all durations. finding “a decreasing trend in annual and especially summer precipitation from the end of the 1970s” and “variations of annual precipitation in Bulgaria showed an overall decrease.0/year in the late 1970s before declining to less than 0. (2000) as indicating that “the LIA was characterized in the southern Iberian Peninsula by increased rainfall. 6.” They concluded that if the climate-driven changes they observed over the latter part of the twentieth century continue.” which suggests that much of Europe became drier.2/year from 1990. Moving eastward into Italy.” or as they say in their concluding paragraph. Precipitation.” Sousa and Garcia-Murillo’s work complements these findings by indicating “an aridization of the climatic conditions after the last peak of the LIA (1830-1870). the majority of all stations again continued to exhibit no trends in extreme rainfall at any of the durations tested. none had positive trends at all durations and one had negative trends at all durations. (2002) analyzed rainfall data collected from 81 gauges spread throughout the Tuscany region for three different periods: (1) from the beginning of each record through 1994. in their words. the majority of all stations exhibited no trends in extreme rainfall at any of the durations tested. and Sea Level  western Europe and recent dry winter conditions over southern Europe and the Mediterranean are strongly related to the persistent and exceptionally strong positive phase of the NAO index since the early 1980s.” and they cite Grove (2001) as indicating that “climatic conditions inducing the LIA glacier advances [of Northern Europe] were also responsible for an increase in flooding frequency and sedimentation in Mediterranean Europe. Also working in the Andalusia region of southern Spain. 169 . For the still-longer complete period of record.” Working in the eastern Basilicata region of southern Italy. revealing no impact of twentieth century global warming one way or the other. in their words. and (3) the still-shorter 1970-1994 period. not wetter. Crisci et al.” Alexandrov et al. Sousa and Garcia-Murillo (2003) studied proxy indicators of climatic change in Doñana Natural Park over a period of several hundred years. as it included both wetter and drier periods. For the longer 1951-1994 period. 3. Clark and Rendell (2006) analyzed 50 years of rainfall records (1951-2000).3/year from 1985 to 2005. four had positive trends at all durations and none had negative trends at all durations. and by subjecting the data to a Pettitt test.” In addition. they detected a significant downward shift at all stations around 1985. where they concentrated on characterizing trends in extreme rainfall events. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis also was performed on the precipitation data. This work indicated. This work revealed that the Little Ice Age (LIA) was by no means uniform in their region of study. that the changes in winter precipitation around 1985 “could be due to an intensification of the positive phase of the NAO. Sea Ice.” as opposed to an intensification of global warming. they report the region stretching from the Mediterranean into European Russia and the Ukraine “has experienced decreases in precipitation by as much as 20% in some areas. as the earth recovered from the global chill of the Little Ice Age. 12. This work revealed that for the period 1970-1994.6/year in the period 1955-1962 to 0. that “the frequency of extreme rainfall events in this area declined by more than 50% in the 1990s compared to the 1950s. with landslide-event frequency changing from 1. trends were derived for extreme rainfall durations of 1. and 24 hours. (2) the shorter 1951-1994 period.

and Moisselin.co2science. M. Over the past century of supposedly unprecedented global warming.... Cyprus and Greece. Climate Mediterranean region actually became less variable Dynamics 25: 75-98. aboveaverage winter precipitation was found to have 170 . and 1850-1930.Climate Change Reconsidered    Rodrigo. References citing several biases that may have corrupted the data base.. Additionally. 1650-1670. found to be more variable over the intervals 1520Touchan. Climate variability and change in Bulgaria independent precipitation proxies. Akkemik. For the period 1923-2002. D. they found that May-August precipitation Sousa. Syria. 2006. J. Alexandrov.. and Rendell. Pozo-Vazquez.. preceded it.. including documentary data in southern Spain. Northern characteristics of Mediterranean Europe do not find evidence of the rising or more variable precipitation predicted by global climate models. Journal of Turkey. Linderholm and Molin (2005) analyzed two J. including precipitation. V. 2002.805-14. which Geophysical Research 106: 14. is “possible evidence of recent climatic changes” in subject/p/precipeuropemed. that on the whole there were no long-term trends. F. indicating that as Hughes. In a study covering the longest time span of all..-M. E. and precipitation was found to have exhibited less Maracchi. The longest dry period occurred in the late sixteenth Tomozeiu. Italy. Hindcasting extreme revealed there had been a high degree of variability in events: The occurrence and expression of damaging floods and landslides in southern Italy. the globe experienced the supposedly unprecedented 2005. P.php. Y. precipitation appeared to have increased slightly... M. M. Hydrological Processes 16: 1261-1274. A reconstruction of the winter North August) precipitation reconstructions for several parts Atlantic Oscillation index back to A. Crisci. although they questioned the veracity of the trend. A. Esteban-Parra. and Cacciamani. Funkhouser. and Garcia-Murillo. Meneguzzo. Gozzini. one derived from during the 20th century. Land Degradation & summer precipitation on inter-annual to decadal time Development 17: 365-380. while there were two extreme Precipitation fluctuations during the winter season from wet periods: 1601-1605 and 1751-1755. 2003. Hanna et al.J.A. C.. Reconstructions of spring/summer precipitation for warming of the last decades of the twentieth century.M.L. Pagliara.3. and Stephan. winter (September-April) precipitation chronology Climatic Change 48: 121-136. Changes in the varied on multi-annual and decadal timescales. Luterbacher. century (1591-1595). Theoretical and Applied tree-ring data and one from a farmer’s diary. Extreme rainfall in a changing climate: variability than it did during the 150 years that regional analysis and hydrological implications in Tuscany. Lebanon. the Eastern Mediterranean from tree-ring widths and its May-August precipitation in the eastern connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation. F. G. A. J.818. produce a 250-year record of summer (June-August) precipitation in east central Sweden. They Rodrigo. In conclusion. H.T. U.J. SW Spain) at the end of the Little Ice Age. Grove. D. B. This work Clarke. Rainfall variability in southern Spain found considerable variability.3. 1960 to 1995 over Emilia-Romagna. Schneider. R. M.. N. scales throughout the record. International Journal fairly stable period of above-average precipitation of Climatology 20: 721-732. Climatic Change 58: 193-217. from tree-ring data obtained within the northern boreal forest zone of west-central Scandinavia.... G. these studies of precipitation 4. E. that cold island nation. 2001. reviews of newer publications as they become over the past century in an effort to determine if there available. Y. (2005) developed summer (MayCastro-Diez.S. (2004) analyzed variations in several Additional information on this topic. Erkan. M. A. and Castro-Diez.. 2000. Theoretical and both extreme wet and dry precipitation events were Applied Climatology 72: 221-229.K. Xoplaki. Lazzeri. 2001. and Touchan et al. Pozo-Vazquez. Over this period. than it had been in the earlier part of the century. M. to Climatology 79: 133-149.5. with the exception of a on decadal to centennial time scales. can be found at http://www. Esteban-Parra. 1590. between AD 1730 and 1790. however.D. but wetlands of Andalusia (Doñana Natural Park. including climatic variables in Iceland. Koleva. The “Little Ice Age” and its Linderholm and Chen (2005) derived a 500-year geomorphological consequences in Mediterranean Europe. 1501 using of the eastern Mediterranean region. In addition. 2004. extend back in time as much as 600 years. 2002. R. S.

and Molin. with the highest values reported in the early to mid-1500s. T. and Chen. T. and 1893-1958. however. additionally note that their results “reinforce more tenuous conclusions made by previous authors. and Sea Level  occurred in subject/p/precipeuropenorth. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. below-average winter precipitation was observed during 1504-1520. H. In the northern Rocky Mountains and Cascades of the Pacific Northwest.6. where Kusnierczyk and Ettl (2002) report that climate models predict “increasingly warm and wet winters. 2005. with essentially no change being observed at the highintensity end of the spectrum. Over the period of Cowles et al.E. the trend was decidedly negative. International Journal of Climatology 24: 1193-1210. Similar extreme conditions may therefore be expected to naturally recur in the future. 1852-1871. there was no trend at the annual timescale. This work revealed that the long-term SWE trend of this entire region was negative.2 inches per year. and Box. Generally   speaking. In fact. 1872-1892.Observations: Glaciers. 4. precipitation that fell and accumulated as snow in the western USA did not respond as predicted. J. Precipitation.php. They found “at the annual timescale. 2005. Cowles et al. but with some significant within-region differences. Linderholm. Sea Ice. a statistically significant increasing trend in precipitation in the basin was detected.” as do Leung and Wigmosta (1999). In the intermountain region and southern Rockies. however. but monthly totals increased in low-flow months and decreased in high-flow months. in the words of the authors. This 20-year span of time was the longest and most intense wet period of the entire 105 years of record.3. 1670-1695. aerial markers and airborne gamma radiation—at more than 2. 1626-1647. these trends are all positive for plant and animal life.W. it did just the opposite. snow telemetry. Boreas 34: 44-52. however. In the case of streamflow. at 275 and 311 sites. for example.co2science. Central Scandinavian winter precipitation variability during the past five centuries reconstructed from Pinus sylvestris tree rings. Cowles et al. 1648-1669.W. References Hanna. Early nineteenth century drought in east central Sweden inferred from dendrochronological and historical archives.1 to 0. This prediction is especially applicable to the Pacific Northwest of the United States. 16961731. “did not increase as much and even showed a 171 . with the lowest values occurring at the beginning of the record and the beginning of the seventeenth century. when there was welldocumented worldwide warming. The number of very wet years. D. Additional information on this topic. with SWE decreasing at a rate of 0. who studied snow course data from 1951-1985 and 1948-1987. finding that regions in the central and southern Great Plains experienced above-average precipitation over the last two decades of the twentieth century.” This trend was driven primarily by an increase in the number of rainy days in the moderate rainfall intensity range.” citing Changnon et al. United States Molnar and Ramirez (2001) conducted a detailed watershed-based analysis of precipitation and streamflow trends for the period 1948-97 in the semiarid region of the Rio Puerco Basin of New Mexico. These findings demonstrate that non-CO2-forced wetter and drier conditions than those of the present have occurred repeatedly within this region throughout the past five centuries. can be found at http://www. These findings are particularly interesting in light of the fact that nearly all climate models suggest the planet’s hydrologic cycle will be enhanced in a warming world and that precipitation will increase.’s study. 17321851. 2004. over the Pacific Northwest. and 1959 to the present. H. Garbrecht and Rossel (2002) used state divisional monthly precipitation data from the US National Climatic Data Center to investigate the nature of precipitation throughout the US Great Plains from January 1895 through December 1999. Linderholm. there was no change in SWE with time. and was primarily the result of a reduction in the number of dry years and an increase in the number of wet years. Climate Research 29: 63-72. An analysis of Icelandic climate since the nineteenth century.000 sites in the eleven westernmost states over the period 1910-1998. Jónsson. 1562-1625. respectively. (2002) analyzed snow water equivalent (SWE) data obtained from four different measuring systems—snow courses. (1993) and McCabe and Legates (1995). H. They too found a decreasing trend in SWE at most sites in the Pacific Northwest but more ambiguity in the southern Rockies..

frequency variation in precipitation in five regional reveal that over the past century of global warming. 2001. while there has been no change in the present in all regions during the late 16th century amount of water required for optimum plant growth. composite chronologies pertaining to the central and just the opposite has occurred.” 1895-2000.” something they envision 1980s and 1990s.” The results of their analyses. and wet-dry cycles were apparently base of daily precipitation observations for the period synchronous at some sites until the 1950s drought. the elevated extreme precipitation of 19 tree-ring chronologies.and 10-day duration happening in both the severe drought of the 1950s and events. Gray et al. the 1740s.” Consequently. McCabe and Wolock (2002) further back in time. developed a 1. as opposed to an increase in very extremes is quite large on decadal time scales and wet years. there was a statistically was experienced during the preceding three centuries. they note that “for the warm phase AMO [Atlantic Multidecadal 1-day duration events.” which 1950s drought” occurred in “the late 1000s. Ni et al.Climate Change Reconsidered    to the recent increases. and again. frequencies during 1895-1905 are only the late sixteenth century megadrought. the mid further suggests. however.” both of which characteristics are huge In describing the significance of these findings. They say “strong conterminous United States: moisture has become multidecadal phasing of moisture variation was more available. slightly smaller than late 20th century values. decreasing to a minimum in southern Rockies may ensue from coupling of the the 1920s and ‘30s..” More specifically. Their work revealed that for the during the twentieth century was higher than what country as a whole. megadrought. (2002) In commenting on these findings. but it was primarily confined to the final 1800s and early 1900s “were about as high as in the decade of the twentieth century. Haston and Michaelsen (1997) evaluated and analyzed (1) values of annual developed a 400-year history of precipitation for 29 precipitation minus annual potential stations in coastal and near-interior California evapotranspiration. (2003)..000-year history of cool-season note that since enhanced greenhouse gas forcing of (November-April) precipitation for each climate the climate system was very small in the early years division in Arizona and New Mexico from a network of this record.. Kunkel et al.” Going back even further in time.” This is also the conclusion of decrease for many regions. at least within the southern Rocky Mountains.. significant increase in the first two of these three it was also “less variable compared to other periods in parameters.. and natural variability could be an important contributor 172 . This effort indicated “heavy precipitation They also note that “severe drought conditions across frequencies were relatively high during the late consecutive seasons and years in the central and 19th/early 20th centuries. With respect to drought.” while “for 5. 1998. frequencies during 1895-1905 Oscillation] (Cayan et al. as 1980s/1990s. adversely affect water reconstructions of drought for evidence of lowresources. followed by a general increase cold phase PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] with into the 1990s. “fewer dry years over “natural variability in the frequency of precipitation the last 10 years. frequencies of that time “were most likely a they found “sustained dry periods comparable to the consequence of naturally forced variability. were the leading cause of the observed wet cannot be discounted as the cause or one of the causes conditions.” of the recent increases.” Looking at the entire conterminous United States Working with proxy data that extend much from 1895-1999. in their words.S. Their research must be supplied by irrigation to grow vegetation at revealed that although region-wide precipitation an optimum rate. increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon In a similar study. (2) surplus water that eventually between San Francisco Bay and the U. he too concludes that Garbrecht and Rossel report. Barlow et al. 1664-70. are comparable in magnitude to frequencies in the Enfield et al.” and that “oscillatory modes in the 30Also studying the conterminous United States 70 year domain persisted until the mid-19th century were Kunkel et al. and (3) the water deficit that border using tree-ring chronologies. “the possibility that 1100s.” The northern and Kunkel (2003). (2003) examined 15 dioxide and other radiatively active gases may cause tree ring-width series that had been used in previous global warming and . the 1770s. who analyzed a new data in two regions.-Mexican becomes streamflow. 1570-97. while for the third there was no change. positive developments for both man and nature in this McCabe and Wolock say “there is concern that important region of California. the past. 2001). who in a review of this and other northwestern Great Plains also experienced a pertinent studies states that frequencies of extreme precipitation increase at the end of this 105-year precipitation events in the United States in the late interval.

D. Ni et al.. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.J.L. 2000. report that several wet periods comparable to the wet conditions seen in the early 1900s and after 1976 occurred in “1108-20.. D. T... Ishman. S. S. They found a high degree of decadal and multidecadal variability between wet and dry conditions throughout the record.. however. Journal of Agricultural. McGeehin. A.. Decadal variability of precipitation over western North America. A.E. Christ. like the study of Ni et al. S.” Cronin et al. and U.” Regarding the causes of the different precipitation extremes.” For the particular part of the world covered by their study. A. J. had experienced several “mega-droughts. Precipitation.” Precipitation over the last two centuries.. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 277-280. Changnon. the latter two decades of which the IPCC claims comprise the warmest such period of the past two millennia. and Trimble. J.E. 2001. that both wetter and drier intervals occurred repeatedly in the past in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. and Michaelsen.” whereas the sixteenth century megadrought lasted more than four times longer. C. but on the opposite side of the country. Mestas-Nuñez. Nigam.. Additional information on this topic. Climatic variability in the eastern United States over the past millennium from Chesapeake Bay sediments. Diaz. Journal of Climate 14: 2105-2128. ENSO. Cronin et al. Cronin et al. Garbrecht. R. 1195-1204. McKee. Geology 28: 3-6.M. and Berberry. Cayan. D. S. Journal of Climate 10: 1836-1852. 1330-45. 1997. Annual snowpack patterns across the Rockies: Long-term trends and associated 500-mb synoptic patterns. 2002. there appears to be nothing unusual about the extremes of both wetness and dryness experienced during the twentieth century. With respect to the opposite of drought. describe as being “more severe than twentieth century droughts. S. Colman. and Rossel. when the climate was judged to have been “extremely wet. can be found at http://www. C. References Barlow. Betancourt.” In addition. drought and streamflow. J.H. but it only lasted from approximately 1950 to 1956.. D. and Zimmerman.000-year reconstructions in Arizona and New Mexico may also be linked to strong shifts of the coupled ENSO-PDO system. Enfield. F. 2003.” which leads them to hypothesize that “the prominent shifts seen in the 1. it was determined that this region.” They also note that the 1950s drought “was large in scale and severity. 173 . Kerhin.. and Sea Level    the late 1800s.. therefore. P. reveals nothing unusual about precipitation in the U. the 1610s. for example. Haston. T. and Jackson. Gray. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 7: 64-75. Biological. D.L. Willard. 2002..K.’s work indicates. S. summertime precipitation. Verardo.1029/2002GL016154. Zimmerman.php. L. Sea Ice.L. There is reason to believe such intervals will occur in the future … with or without any further global warming.. Monthly Weather Review 121: 633-647.R.” lasting from 60-70 years in length.F. including reviews of newer publications as they become subject/p/precipusa. the largest estuary in the United Sates.co2science. D. Holmes. In another equally long study. Ni et al. and Graham. often in “extremely rapid [shifts] occurring over about a decade. in an effort to examine precipitation variability in the surrounding watershed over the past 1. M.000 years.B. Cronin.B.S.Observations: Glaciers.. where regional precipitation totals fluctuated between 25 percent and 30 percent. and Doesken. and the early 1800s. Pacific decadal variability. Fastie. M. 2001.L.. like the southwestern United States. and McGinnis.” They also note that “the most persistent and extreme wet interval occurred in the 1330s. some of which Cronin et al. 1993. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U. during the twentieth century. Patterns and sources of multidecadal oscillations in drought-sensitive tree-ring records from the central and southern Rocky Mountains.S. M.D. and Environmental Statistics 7: 536-557.T.D. say that “the 1950s drought corresponds to La Niña/-PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] and the opposite polarity [+PDO] corresponds to the post-1976 wet period. was on average greater than what it was during the previous eight centuries. Cowles. H. N. 1998. Dettinger. Karlsen. (2000) measured and analyzed salinity gradients across sediment cores extracted from Chesapeake Bay. Spatial and temporal variability of southern California precipitation over the last 400 yr and relationships to atmospheric circulation patterns. Decade-scale precipitation increase in Great Plains at end of 20th century. Combining snow water equivalent data from multiple sources to estimate spatio-temporal trends and compare measurement systems. J. E. A.S..J..T. with the exception of the Medieval Warm Period (AD 1250-1350). N.’s work. Journal of Climate 11: 3148-3166.

C. Climate Research 20: 19-29.. K.. Temporal variations of extreme precipitation number of extreme autumn snowfall events was events in the United States: 1895-2000. Relationships sediments obtained from Nicolay Lake. 2002.” Consequently. 2001. Lamoureux says that and nonlinear techniques for reconstruction. was in vain. J.” Association 35: 1463-1471. Redmond. In addition. U. Kunkel (2003) reported that “several studies have contradicts the IPCC’s claim that extreme argued that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations precipitation events become more frequent and more will result in an increase of heavy precipitation severe with increasing temperature. Natural Hazards 29: 291-305. Canada and Mexico Ice Age. which were the coldest periods of the past Ni. Journal of the American Water Resources Canada. in their words. His search. and an investigation into precipitation totals Research Letters 30: 10. 1995. T. and Legates. Cavazos. (2002) words. Cool-season precipitation in the southwestern USA since AD 1000: Comparison of linear Arctic as a whole. Zhang et Cascade Mountain. 2001. 2000. Nunavut. Canadian High Arctic. but Molnar. Comrie. who analyzed varved lake McCabe. E. Washington.S. D. M. (extreme plus non-extreme events) revealed a slightly Kusnierczyk. 2001. and Wolock. G. however. slight increase in total precipitation. (2001) also studied the temporal of Chihuahua.E. Yonetani and Gordon. Potential climate the twentieth century have not been associated with a change impacts on mountain watersheds in the Pacific generalized increase in extreme precipitation over Northwest. rising temperatures have been shown to such a signal in precipitation data from Canada that reduce precipitation extremes. based on earlywood width characteristics of heavy precipitation events across chronologies of more than 300 Douglas fir trees Canada. M. with rainfall events recorded at a nearby weather station over the period 1948-1978. conterminous United States. in his South of the United States.. S. using what they describe as “the most growing at four locations along the western and homogeneous long-term dataset currently available southern borders of Chihuahua and at two locations in for Canadian daily precipitation.A. predicted to be most impacted by CO2-induced global Trenberth.S.J. International “more frequent extremes and increased variance in Journal of Climatology 22: 1645-1662.Climate Change Reconsidered    Kunkel. that “there has been no discernible trend in the created a 346-year history of winter-spring frequency of the most extreme events in Canada.” This study. yield occurred during the 17th and 19th centuries. and Wigmosta. Here in the (Cubasch et al. G. 1999. and Ramirez.R.7. that feature of both the frequency and intensity of the 174 . Geophysical noted. Easterling. Taking a longer view of the subject was Lamoureux (2000). G. frequent during the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries. they found “no evidence of any significant long-term changes. K. P. like the others discussed above. even in the face of a covered much of the past century.” Their efforts the United States just above Chihuahua’s northeast revealed that decadal-scale variability was a dominant border. as well as the Funkhouser. and Hubbard. an increasing trend in the K. 2002. Hughes.R. 1998.1029/2003GL018052. seasonal data. but precipitation. Cornwall between 700hPa height anomalies and 1 April snowpack Island.A. North American trends in extreme annual number of extreme precipitation events.’s overall conclusion was that “increases in the climatic change. L. concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases during Leung.R. as the data indicated.K. Kunkel looked for warming.J. Zwiers and Kharin. wet synoptic types during the coldest periods of the Little 4. and Ettl. A. 2002.3. Canada. 1998). likely due to increased occurrences of cool. This history was suggestive of a small. increase in total rainfall precipitation and streamflow in the Rio Puerco Basin.. K. and 400 years in the Canadian High Arctic. D. Diaz et al. which comparison McCabe. 2003. Heavy rainfall was most Journal of Climate 14: 2317-2328.R. over the course of the record. Trends and enabled the reconstruction of a rainfall history for the temperature sensitivity of moisture conditions in the location over the 487-year period from 1500 to 1987. however. and compared the results accumulations in the western USA.: Implications for al.. Growth response of increasing trend that was attributed to increases in the ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) to climate in the eastern number of non-heavy precipitation events. A.” (November-April) precipitation for the Mexican state Zhang et al.J. This exercise revealed.M. in a part of the planet Kharin and Zwiers.E. International Journal of Climatology 14: 517-530. Ecoscience 9: 544-551. 2003. F. Recent trends in statistically insignificant.” When the annual data were divided into Kunkel.

B. 2002.A. it was not. Lamoureux. 4. Spatial and temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation events over Canada. Climate Research 22: 237-244. X. This is related to forecasts of droughts.W.) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Stahle. K.A. suggesting that neither twenteith century anthropogenic CO2 emissions nor 20th-century warming—whether natural or human-induced— significantly impacted precipitation in that part of North America.W. However. Streamflow Model projections suggest that CO2-induced global warming will adversely impact earth’s water resources by inducing large changes in global streamflow characteristics. Senior. As a result. 1998. Water Resources Research 36: 309-318. Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling: Implications for rainfall rates with climate change. C.Observations: Glaciers. R. there was no long-term trend in the data. Additional information on this topic. nor was there any evidence of a significant departure from that trend over the course of the twentieth century. D. 2001. H. V. Journal of Climate 13: 3670-3688.. S. North American trends in extreme precipitation. Cambridge. Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM.T. Sea Ice. 1998. W.. and Gordon. Yonetani. Diaz et al. Chihuahua (Mexico) winter-spring precipitation reconstructed from tree-rings. one in the late 1720s and early 1730s.. Cambridge University Press. S. D. Maskell.J. E.” which again makes the twentieth century look unusual in this regard.C. Ding. for several of the years of that interval.E. Natural Hazards 29: 291-305.E. and Sea Level    “three of the 5 worst winter-spring drought years in the past three-and-a-half centuries are estimated to have occurred during the 20th century. Stouffer. 2003.. P.. Changes in the extremes of climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO2doubling.K. K. K. G. Dix. A.. Consequently. U. Noda. and Yap. Zhang. ( subject/p/precipnortham. Dai. with respect to the entire 346 years. Hogg. so the three years were not representative of long-term droughty conditions..php. Projections of future climate change. and Johnson. References Cubasch.co2science. or just slightly above. M. issues that are addressed in greater detail in Chapter 6. additionally report that “the longest drought indicated by the smoothed reconstruction lasted 17 years (1948-1964). C..” Although this fact makes it sound like the twentieth century was highly anomalous in this regard. Kunkel.. S. normal for the remainder of the record. F.. Journal of Climate 11: 2200-2222.D.. F.V. many scientists are examining proxy streamflow records in an effort to determine how temperature changes of the twentieth century may or may not have impacted this aspect of the planet’s hydrologic cycle. 2000. Climatic Change 39: 667-694. Y. one in the late 1790s and early 1800s. With respect to the twentieth century alone. Zwiers. Raper.W. Noguer. In: Houghton. A recent global study of this issue is Milliman et al. precipitation remained at.V. X.. 2000.. Chihuahua’s precipitation history did not differ in any substantial way during the twentieth century from what it was over the prior quarter of a millennium. (2008). and one in the late 1660s and early 1670s.. Griggs. Five centuries of interannual sediment yield and rainfall-induced erosion in the Canadian High Arctic recorded in lacustrine varves. who computed temporal discharge trends for 137 rivers over the last half of the twentieth century that provide what they call a “reasonable 175 . floods. can be found at http://www..J. Simulated changes in the frequency of extremes and regional features of seasonal/annual temperature and precipitation when atmospheric CO2 is doubled. Boer. 2001. J. van der Linden. Finally. UK. Kharin. 2001. G. V. K. M.. Trenberth. and precipitation variability. precipitation values were only slightly below normal.D.4. Contributions of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1647-1992. and there were four very similar dry periods interspersed throughout the preceding two-and-a-half centuries: one in the late 1850s and early 1860s. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Journal of Climate 14: 1923-1936. there was a long period of high winter-spring precipitation that stretched from 1905 to 1932. and Mekis. Journal of Climate 14: 17651779. and following the major drought of the 1950s. and Zwiers. M. M.J.A. and Kharin. Meehl. Two of those three worst drought years occurred during a decadal period of average to slightly above-average precipitation. Precipitation. Therrell. Diaz. T.J.S. and Cleaveland.

2008.” hydrological cycle. and Po..” as their combined drainage for northeastern Mongolia. that “variations over the recent to examine trends in the severity.D. seeking to discover if period was 1764-68 and the driest period was 1854there have been any twentieth century changes in 58.” In addition. write that extended from 1637 to 1997. Loire.co2science. and period of instrumental data are not unusual relative to frequency of drought over the following four time the prior record... This protocol indicated that “despite extended wet periods in more recent decades. Climatic and anthropogenic factors This latter analysis did not show “any significant affecting river discharge to the global ocean.” To the contrary. Davi draining into the global ocean. with respect to both series of statistical analyses on more than 600 daily standard deviations and five-year intervals of extreme streamflow records from the European Water Archive wet and dry periods. Milliman.” basins represent about 55 percent of the land area Working in another part of the same region. 1930-1995. wider variation in the long-term tree-ring record than offering little support to a global intensification of the in the limited record of measured precipitation. “between 1951 and 2000 cumulative width chronologies from five sampling sites in westdischarge for the 137 rivers remained statistically central Mongolia were used in precipitation models unchanged.” Spectral analysis of the data also revealed they report discovering that the number of trends significant periodicities of 12 and 20-24 years. models. Eurasia that even over the 180-year time period that saw the demise of the Little Ice Age and the ushering in of the Pederson et al. in the researchers’ words. they state that this observation “does no clear indication that streamflow drought conditions not demonstrate unequivocal evidence of an increase in Europe have generally become more severe or in precipitation as suggested by some climate frequent in the time periods studied. 1951-2000. researchers say “is representative of the central Asian Additional information on this topic. (2001) performed a 1651-1995.” including the Goeta.” such as is generally claimed to which for the region they studied covered the period be a consequence of CO2-induced global warming.. Neman. duration. L. Xu.4. in a simple and effort led to a reconstruction of streamflow that straightforward conclusion. Danube. there were no long-term trends from northeastern Mongolia to develop annual in the discharge rates of the major rivers of Europe. _s.D.” Then. Rhone. they also derived long-term discharge rate trends.L. and Smith. For those rivers with sufficiently long and accurate data precipitation and streamflow.1. This work revealed. In analyzing these data. These latter observations are most interesting. therefore—which the temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration. J. from 1937 to 2003.” which statistically unchanged. In addition. Rhine. precipitation and streamflow histories for the period In another study. “possible 176 . can be twentieth century has led to increased variability in found at http://www. Farnsworth. Jones. including region”—there is no evidence that the warming of the reviews on streamflow not discussed here. and reconstructions “appear to show more frequent 1911-1995. Oder.H. Wesaer. they report their In the rest of this section we review studies for streamflow history indicates that “the wettest 5-year Eurasia and North America.. Pekarova et al. there is Nevertheless. they report that “global onand an individual model was made using the longest land precipitation between 1951 and 2000 remained of the five tree-ring records (1340-2002). Elbe. “neither discharge nor precipitation changed the four researchers discovered there was “much significantly over the last half of the 20th century. Milliman et al.” For caused by twentieth century changes in air this part of Mongolia.Climate Change Reconsidered    evidence for solar influences in these reconstructions global representation. K.” several reports on recent droughts in Europe. 1962-1995. for they indicate 4. In the words of the et al. P. pointing towards decreasing streamflow deficits or suggesting. extended dry period [was] 1778-83. (2001) used tree-ring chronologies Current Warm Period.php under the heading Streamflow. Hisdal et al.C.” while “the most extended wet period [was] 1794streamflow regimes that might reasonably have been 1802 and . (2003) analyzed the annual discharge rates of selected large rivers of the world Reference for recurring cycles of wet and dry periods. trend change in long-term discharge series (1810Global and Planetary Change 62: 187-194. 1990) in representative European rivers.” although they say that the periods: 1962-1990. (2006) report that “absolutely dated tree-ringfive researchers. Vistule. K.

” Cao et al. (2006) note that “both theoretical arguments and models suggest that net high-latitude precipitation increases in proportion to increases in mean hemispheric temperature (Houghton et al. where they conducted their streamflow study. Ob’. the claimed magnitude of global warming. were unchanged in 53 percent of the cases investigated. and “are thus still within the range of long-term natural variability. Rahmstorf and Ganopolski. Moreover. and Sea Level    fewer drought events exceeded the number of trends pointing towards increasing streamflow deficits or more drought events. Dvina.” Writing about the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.” focusing on providing “a first continental-scale assessment of low-flow trends since the 1930s.” with the ultimate expectation that total river discharge within the region would significantly increase in response to global warming. or ‘low flows. Smith et al. Minimum river discharges. Yenisey. 62 percent of them were upward. reveals that over much of northern Eurasia.. they have been increasing “in summer as well as winter and in non-permafrost as well as permafrost terrain. Spatially. (2007) present “a first analysis of a new dataset of daily discharge records from 138 small to medium-sized unregulated rivers in northern Eurasia. Precipitation.” Smith et al. on balance. the monthly minimum values of daily discharge. 2003). the disconnect between streamflow and global warming in this and many other studies argues strongly against the claimed consequences of global warming. as daily low flows of the majority of northern Eurasian rivers have been increasing. predictions of more drought seem rather off the mark. they say their “longer-term discharge records do not indicate a consistent positive significant correlation between discharge [and] Siberian temperature.” Results indicated that annual discharges of the mid to late twentieth century previously reported are not significantly greater than discharges experienced over the preceding 200 years. In another study. using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test. “river discharges in the QinghaiTibet Plateau.” so that “some researchers [have] even advanced the issue of [a] climatic shift from warmdry to warm-wet in northwest China (Shi. where trends did exist 72 percent of them were downward. concluded that their real-world findings are not “in accordance with the anticipated ideas” that led them to conduct their study. in general.” Because they could detect “no increase in the stream discharge in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with global warming. such as increased streamflow and increases in streamflow variability that would lead to more floods and droughts. in the words of the five researchers.” stating that in these scenarios “under global warming. Cao et al. the two researchers determined that mean river discharges were unchanged in 67 percent of the cases investigated. and Kolyma). where trends did exist. Pechora. As a result of their analyses.Observations: Glaciers. Cluis and Laberge (2001) utilized streamflow records stored in the databank of the Global Runoff Data Center at the Federal Institute of Hydrology in Koblenz (Germany) to see if there were any recent changes in river runoff of the type predicted by IPCC scenarios of global warming. Lena. maximum river discharges were unchanged in 77 percent of the cases investigated. Looking back towards Asia.” adding that “from 12 unusually complete records from 1935-2002 we see that the minimum flow increases are greatest since ~1985. In a contemporaneous study. Bruce et al. they found that over the period of their study. on the other hand. Indeed. 2001. 177 .’ have risen in northern Eurasia during the 20th century. their study encompassed 78 rivers said to be “geographically distributed throughout the whole Asia-Pacific region. As a test of these climate-model predictions. or both of these standard claims. precipitation increases significantly. mainly in the middle and west regions of northwest China. All six metrics related to streamflow trends exhibit changes contrary to IPCCpromoted scenarios of climate change. 1999. Sea Ice.” They report there are actually weak negative correlations between discharge and temperature on some of the rivers over the period of their study. Likewise. 2002). (2007) used “tree ring records from a network of sites extending across northern Eurasia to provide reconstructions [extending back to AD 1800] of annual discharge for the October to September water year for the major Eurasian rivers entering the Arctic Ocean (S.” Results indicate that “a clear result of this analysis is that.” In addition. Cao et al. have no obvious change with the increase of the Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature.” while temporally the mean start and end dates of the river flow records were 1936 ± 5 years and 1988 ± 1 year. and in doing so. analyzed annual discharge data for five large rivers of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over the period 1956-2000. MacDonald et al.. where trends did exist 69 percent of them were downward.” with the greatest increases occurring “since ~1985.

The link between this conclusion and the postulated shutting down of the thermohaline circulation of the world’s oceans resides in the hypothesis that the delivery of such a large addition of freshwater to the North Atlantic Ocean may slow—or even stop—that location’s production of new deep Figure 4. can be found at http://www. including relationship to the great length that is implied by the reviews of newer publications as they become IPCC’s predicted high-end warming of 5.1. it can be seen that the upper bound of the data does not change over the entire range of 178 .’s 63 data points.4. J. Science Consider also the Eurasian river discharge 298: 2171-2173.. Consider. i. and Li. Peterson et al. which constitutes one of the driving forces of anomaly vs..4°C. Ob’. Lena. for subject/s/sfrteurasia. The lower values of the combined discharge of the six largest bound.php. Holmes. Chinese Science Enclosing their data with simple straight-line upper Bulletin 51: 594-600.8°C.8°C x 212 km3/year/°C = 1230 km3/year). Kang. D. a temperature increase of 5. conducted their remainder of the current century.W.. rises so rapidly with Eurasian Arctic rivers (Yenisey.8°C over the available. suggesting the very real Worried about the possibility that enhanced possibility that the upper bound corresponds to a freshwater delivery to the Arctic ocean by increased maximum Eurasian river discharge rate that cannot be river flow could shut down the ocean’s thermohaline exceeded in the real world under its current circulation.Climate Change Reconsidered    global SAT variability. global SAT plot of Peterson et al.8°C. R. J. SAT Additional information on this topic. Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Y. (2002) plotted annual geographic and climatic configuration.2°C the globe’s mean annual surface air temperature beyond the temperature of their warmest data point (SAT). which represents a 70 percent increase over the mean discharge rate of the past several years.P. discharge of the six rivers seems to rise by about 212 km3/year in response to a 1°C increase in mean global   air temperature.M. annual global surface air temperature (SAT) the great oceanic “conveyor belt. the warming-induced increase in freshwater discharge from the six rivers could rise by as much as 1260 km3/year (we calculate 5. It is implausible to extend the References relationship they derived across that small temperature range fully 14-and-a-half times further. for a number of reasons. and Severnaya Dvina)—which drain about less than two-tenths of a degree above the warmest of two-thirds of the Eurasian Arctic landmass—against Peterson et al. (their Figure 4).e.co2science. after which they ran a simple linear regression may be all the further any relationship derived from through the data and determined that the combined their data may validly be extrapolated. McClelland. anomaly vs. example. regarded as it was when Peterson et al. Qin. E. global SAT increased by 0.” Although still over the period 1936 to 1999.4. make in real-world and simulated global warming in Eurasia. discussed.1. real-world data do not support the have highlighted is the difficulty of accepting the hydrologic negativism the IPCC associates with both tremendous extrapolation Peterson et al. 2002. Cao. this scenario is currently not as highly (2002). that “over the period of the discharge record. 2006.” according to Peterson et al. and lower bounds. et al. to Bruce. 5. One that we Clearly. Adapted from Peterson et al. which we have replotted in Figure 4. suggesting that 0. extending their Arctic freshwater discharge vs. on the other hand. J. Annual Eurasian Arctic river discharge water. Then. increasing global SAT that the two bounds intersect Kolyma.. they calculated that for the high-end global warming predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to occur by AD 2100. Pechora. River discharge changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau..

.M. B. Pekarova. S. Have streamflow droughts in Europe become more severe or frequent? International Journal of Climatology 21: 317-333. Kremenetski.” spawned by an export of extremely moist gulf air to midcontinental North America driven by naturally occurring same-time-scale oscillations in Gulf of Mexico ocean currents. Y. 3. 2003. North America Brown et al. J.M. Journal of Hydrology 274: 62-79.E.M. Rahmstorf. K.4. is not without precedence in the tree ring 179 . 2001. making it easier for them to see there had been “a near-centennial return period of extreme drought events in this region. N. they found their results were similar to those of the earlier 1976 study. Hidalgo et al. as they occurred over a period of near-constancy in this atmospheric property.) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. C. Journal of Climate 14: 872-881. Hidalgo et al.B. and Pekar.1029/2006JG000333.K. Arizona).T. G. 2006. A. Rising minimum daily flows in northern Eurasian rivers: A growing influence of groundwater in the high-latitude hydrologic cycle.. T. were likely “episodes of multidecadal duration.M.” going all the way back to the early 1500s.M. Precipitation. P. “using an expanded tree-ring network and longer calibration records than in previous efforts. and Laberge. and Demuth.. R. N. Pederson. Climate change and trend detection in selected rivers within the Asia-Pacific region.C. Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model..2. (Eds..W. Curtis. S.000. 2002. McClelland. B. Cambridge University Press. Colorado near Cisco. A. Griggs.J. Jacoby. C. R.000. H.. K. 2007. after which they compared their results with the streamflow reconstruction of Stockton and Jacoby (1976). 2003. Science 298: 2171-2173. J. San Juan near Bluff. Cook. Water International 26: 411-424. Utah. MacDonald.A..Observations: Glaciers.. Smith. 3. Beijing. L. Hisdal.. Shiklomanov. “as measured by 5-year running means of water-year total flow at Lees Ferry . and Hidalgo.G.. E. H.’s work provided additional evidence for the existence of past droughts that surpassed the worst of the twentieth century. Hydrometeorological reconstructions for northeastern Mongolia derived from tree rings: 1651-1995. and Ganopolski.D. The results of their research indicated the occurrence of large megafloods—which they describe as having been “almost certainly larger than historical floods in the Mississippi watershed”—at 4. Journal of Geophysical Research 112: 10.” By these means they determined that the major drought of 2000-2004.300 years in the northern Gulf of Mexico for evidence of variations in Mississippi River outflow characteristics over this time period. 1.1029/2006JG000327. and Baatarbileg.J. and Buckley. N. R.C. R. Jacoby. 2001. Shi. Houghton... Smith. Climatic Change 43: 353-367. Stahl. (2006) generated updated proxy reconstructions of water-year streamflow for four key streamflow gauges in the Upper Colorado River Basin (Green River at Green River. and Rahmstorf.I. Ding. 4.200. and Lammers. 2. Shiklomanov.C.J..C. G. and Colorado at Lees Ferry. but that their newer reconstruction responded with better fidelity to periods of below-average streamflow or regional drought. D. Woodhouse et al. Tallaksen. planktonic foraminiferal and pteropod relative frequencies.. 1999..B. G. MacDonald.... Miklanek. L.. Extension of drought records for Central Asia using tree rings: West-Central Mongolia. Pavelsky.R.500. and Sea Level    Cluis.. J. I.500. In doing so. Davi. (1999) studied siliciclastic sediment grain size. Recent Eurasian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean in the context of longer-term dendrohydrological records. 2007. Cambridge. Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. and the carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions of two species of planktonic foraminifera in cored sequences of hemipelagic muds deposited over the past 5. D’Arrigo. These particular extreme events were in no way related to variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Utah.V.. Peterson.. These fluvial events. An Assessment of the Issues of Climatic Shift from Warm-Dry to Warm-Wet in Northwest China. Lammers. G. Journal of Climate 19: 288-299.700. A. Holmes. in their estimation. Sea Ice. Spatial and temporal runoff oscillation analysis of the main rivers of the world during the 19th-20th centuries. Utah. Journal of Geophysical Research 112: 10.M. Y. Shiklomanov. Meteorological Press. L. 2. 2001. D. A.I. and 300 years before present.. S. (2000) used a form of principal components analysis to reconstruct a history of streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin from information obtained from tree-ring data. P. Vorosmarty.

indicate “the conterminous U. In addition. and Woodhouse (2001). is droughts are a defining feature of Upper Colorado getting wetter.” This finding is just the wetter in the mean.” according to departures from the long-term mean were noted Knox.” there was a statistically significant increase in the first The authors note that “paleoclimatic studies indicate two of these parameters.” and that “the greatest 1800s influenced subsequent watershed runoff and frequency of extreme low flow events occurred in the soil erosion rates.” These and other of their findings. and there has been no support of this statement the studies of Stockton and increase in the amount of water required for optimum Jacoby (1976). as they “these analyses demonstrate that severe. were McCabe and Wolock (2002). This exercise revealed characteristics seen in the prior two to five centuries. By contrast.S. and eleven consecutive years with flows below trends in streamflow nationally. They found many more up-trends than downeight. report that “two additional periods. significance in this regard was probably the fact that Upper Mississippi River Valley from prairie and “multi-year drought events more severe than the forest to crop and pasture land by settlers in the early 1950s drought have occurred. Since the late 1930s. mean annual discharge in the Ashley Creek watershed surface runoff has been decreasing. but less extreme.” and “the Lees Ferry possessed datasets stretching all the way back to reconstruction contains one sequence each of six. indicative of the fact that water has [streamflow] gage records is likely only a subset of actually become more available within the the full range of natural variability. who for the period 300-600 years long. Significant persistent not associated with climatic causes. the United States has gotten [have] occurred in the past.” and that six other periods stations (including data from more than 1.” and that “average reconstructed annual flow few extremely small flows during the periods 1692for the period 1844-1848 was lower. 1914. the land-use conversion ring data collected by Stockton and Jacoby (1976) increased peak discharges from high-frequency floods from the Uinta Mountains of Utah to reconstruct by 200 to 400 percent.” experienced reduced numbers of extremely large Other notable findings of Knox’s study include flows and increased numbers of extremely small the observation that since the 1940s and early 1950s.” with a “clustering of extreme event region’s natural landscape to primarily agricultural years in the 1840s and 1850s.” while citing in conterminous United States. have a 25% or greater chance of streamflow for 395 climate-sensitive stream gage being as dry as 1999-2004. flows. indicative of persistent drought or near-drought the magnitudes of the largest daily flows have been conditions. al. with slight decreases the 1906-1995 average. sustained describe them. while for the third there was that the natural variability in 20th century no change. As the world has warmed more severe than any 20th to 21st century event over the past century.” Their individual gages) located throughout the work revealed that “longer duration droughts have conterminous United States.” and it is difficult to River hydroclimate.” in the words of the three researchers. where floods and droughts occur. Initially. there was an overall 180 . Meko et plant growth. Woodhouse and Lukas (2006) developed “a Also studying the conterminous United States network of 14 annual streamflow reconstructions. but less variable at the extremes. the conversion of the 19th century.500 “have a 10% or greater chance of being drier. however. in the early 1500s Lins and Slack (1999) analyzed secular trends in and early 1600s. Smith and Stockton (1981). The decrease “is for the period 1637 to 1970.Climate Change Reconsidered    abundance of extremely large flows and relatively record. indicative of wetter conditions. Southeast.” The eventually becomes streamflow. for gages in the Upper Colorado 1895-1999 evaluated (1) precipitation minus annual and South Platte River basins in Colorado generated potential evapotranspiration. who reports that “an analysis of temporal throughout the 334-year record of reconstructed variation in storm magnitudes for the same period streamflow. and (3) the water results indicated that “the 20th century gage record deficit that must be supplied by irrigation to grow does not fully represent the range of streamflow vegetation at an optimum rate. The periods 1637-1691 and 1741-1897 showed no statistically significant trend. Carson and Munroe (2005) used treesettlement times.” use boosted surface erosion rates to values three to Working in an adjacent region of the western eight times greater than those characteristic of preUnited States. (2001). opposite of what the IPCC would have us believe. Of greatest Knox (2001) studied how conversion of the U.” They also 1740 and 1898-1945.S.” They conclude that “droughts conceive of a better result. some of which stations occurred in the past. (2) the surplus water that from new and existing tree-ring chronologies.” “only in parts of the Pacific Northwest and the “Overall.

they say that “water quality and aquatic ecosystems should benefit from increases in low flows in both the summer and winter.” Over in Minnesota. deriving histories of seven annual streamflow statistics: “mean annual flow.S.” as they describe it. better water quality.” As a result.” Likewise. they conducted a number of analyses that enabled them to determine each station’s mean streamflow trend over the past half century. “At the annual timescale. and more recreational opportunities. monthly totals increased in lowflow months and decreased in high-flow months. Novotny and Stefan (2006) analyzed streamflow records (extending up to the year 2002. Molnar and Ramirez (2001) conducted a detailed watershed-based analysis of precipitation and streamflow trends for the period 1948-97 in a semiarid region of the southwestern United States.” The two researchers write that “an increase in mean annual streamflow in Minnesota would be welcome. Douglas et al. the Rio Puerco Basin of New Mexico. Precipitation. In the case of streamflow. Once again. that “the mean annual stream flow changes are well correlated with total annual precipitation changes. McCabe and Clark   concluded that “the observed change in the timing of SMR in the western United States is a regional response to natural climatic variability and may not be related to global trends in temperature. McCabe and Clark (2005) note that most prior studies of this phenomenon in the western United States have depended on trend analyses to identify changes in timing. since water quality stresses are usually largest during low flow periods.” and they determined.” Most significantly. they found significant trends in each of the seven streamflow statistics throughout the state.. 7-day low flow in winter.Observations: Glaciers. each with complete water-year information for the period 1950-2003.” as “it could provide more aquatic habitat. but with fewer and smaller floods and droughts. they say “other good news is that spring floods (from snowmelt). there is a tendency to attribute these changes to global warming because of large correlations between linear trends in SMR timing and the increasing trend in global temperature. 7-day low flow in summer. the two researchers found that “the timing of SMR for many rivers in the western United States has shifted to earlier in the snowmelt season. indicating a trend toward fewer flood and drought conditions. but appears to have occurred as a step change during the mid-1980s. because when “changes in SMR timing have been identified by linear trends. as might have been expected. that the “low flows are changing at a significant rate in a significant number of stations and at the highest rates in the past 20 years”. peak flow due to rainfall. there was no trend at the annual timescale. Sea Ice.” This fact is crucial. 2000).. with essentially no change at the high-intensity end of the spectrum.” This trend was driven primarily by an increase in the number of rainy days in the moderate rainfall intensity range. but that in most cases “the trends are not monotonic but periodic. and after discussing various other possible reasons for what they had discovered. using daily streamflow data for 84 stations in the western U. as well as any stepwise changes that may have occurred in each data series. peak flow due to snow melt runoff. and that “this finding matches results of other studies which found low flows increasing in the upper Midwest region including Minnesota (Lins and Slack. they say. they found that peak flood flows due to snowmelt runoff “are not changing at a significant rate throughout the state. 1999. as well as high and extreme flow days (number of days with flow rates greater than the mean plus one or two standard deviations.” but that sevenday low flows or base flows are “increasing in the Red River of the North. but they indicate that “trend analyses are unable to determine if a trend is gradual or a step change. and Sea Level  decreasing at the same time that the magnitude of the average daily baseflow has been increasing. with lengths ranging from 53 to 101 years) obtained from 36 gauging stations in five major river basins of the state. we have a situation where global warming has coincided with a streamflow trend that is leading to the best of all possible worlds: one of greater water availability. (2005) performed an empirical analysis of streamflow trends for rivers fed by relatively pristine watersheds in the central Rocky Mountain Region of North America that extends from Wyoming in the United States through British 181 . respectively). the largest floods in Minnesota.” In addition.” Rood et al. have not been increasing significantly. As others before them had previously learned. among other benefits. “a statistically significant increasing trend in precipitation in the basin was detected.” However. Minnesota River and Mississippi River basins during both the summer and winter”. Shifting to a study of snowmelt runoff (SMR).” which shift was “related to a regional step increase in April-July temperatures during the mid-1980s.” In doing so.” Therefore. they discovered that “the shift to earlier SMR has not been a gradual trend.

with four of them deviations above the 4. 182 ... It also demonstrates there is nothing unusual the four decades of their study. These analyses revealed that river Ice Age approximately 300-350 years ago. statistically significant links were found ensemble of climate models suggest that runoff in the between the decline and the Arctic Oscillation.000-year mean.5 standard an average of 0. as well Niño/Southern Oscillation. Consequently. the exhibiting recent decline rates exceeding 0. after assessing both North America during concomitant periods of relative variability and trends.” As in the prairie provinces of Canada (Alberta.000-year mean. The most predominant departures included precipitation during summer and autumn. To help resolve this decade-long trends in northern Canada river discharge dichotomy. In contrast.5 percent lowest rates of streamflow were observed around AD per year. They applied both parametric and the Roman Warm Period (about BC 900-100). 1100. grain size over the past 150 years has wetter in the near-future. During flows in this region declined over the past century by this time. This finding. These facts begins by noting that the study of Burn (1994) led the two scientists to conclude that the changes in suggested that a doubling of the air’s CO2 content river discharge they observed were driven “primarily could increase the severity and frequency of droughts by precipitation rather than evapotranspiration. the regulated and unregulated portions of the watershed. respectively.000 years.Climate Change Reconsidered    Dark Ages Cold Period (about BC 100 to AD 700). Campbell (2002) analyzed the Canada’s HYDAT data archive. In and non-parametric statistical analyses to assess addition. with winter streamflow going up by 60record at decadal. Alberta. research effort revealed the existence of periods of This work revealed. grain sizes were about 2. he notes that similar “changes in annual and the Little Ice Age (about AD 1500-1900). Working entirely in Canada. the El Winnipeg River region of southern Manitoba. plus precipitation and grain sizes of sediment cores obtained from Pine temperature data from Environment Canada’s Lake. This work indicated there was a streamflow studies reviewed here that did not stretch statistically significant mean decline of approximately all the way back in time to the Medieval Warm 10 percent in the discharge rates of the 64 rivers over Period. the results of this study increase 20-30 percent by the middle of the twentyindicate there is nothing unusual about the fourfirst century (Milly et al. St. and the Pacific Decadal as runoff in central and northern Manitoba. when median grain sizes were nearly 2 standard “contrasts with the many current climate change deviations below the 4.. Columbia in Canada. they explored the influence of global warmth and coolness. St. but that results from an decline. Winnipeg River watershed from the Water Survey of Also in Canada. which means there is nothing in these trends streamflow data from nine gauge stations within the that would suggest a global warming impact. revealing a large-scale teleconnections as possible drivers of the relationship that was not evident in the prior trends they detected. Then. and millennial time 110%. Manitoba). to provide a non-vegetation-based Adjusted Historical Canadian Climate Data archive. a standardized median grain-size history nearly a century of annual discharge (ending about revealed that the highest rates of stream discharge 2002) along 31 river reaches that drain this part of during the past 4. the winter streamflow are observed in records from both Medieval Warm Period (about AD 700-1300). centennial. where about threeThe Pine Lake sediment record convincingly quarters of the country is drained by rivers that demonstrates the reality of the non-CO2-induced discharge their water into the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. while most predictions that [this] region will become warmer and recently.000-year 1924 .” primarily because of “increases in scales.22 percent per year. in the words of St.” In several-centuries-long epochs that corresponded to addition. George obtained daily and monthly rates. Déry and Wood (2005) analyzed millennial-scale climatic oscillation that has hydrometric data from 64 northern Canadian rivers alternately brought several-century-long periods of that drain more than half of the country’s landmass dryness and wetness to the southern Alberta region of for the period 1964-2003. identical to the decline in precipitation falling over In a final study from Canada. 2005). for the cause of the precipitation/river discharge Saskatchewan. which was nearly about the region’s current moisture status. George (2007) northern Canada between 1964 and 2000. in the words of Rood et al. both increasing and decreasing grain size (a proxy for that “mean annual flows have increased by 58% since moisture availability) throughout the 4.000 years occurred during the Little North America. high-resolution record of climate variability for this and analyzed them for trends over the period 1924part of North America over the past 4. George. This 2003.” generally remained above average.. could Oscillation.

2006.” citing the studies of Westmacott and Burn (1997). Weber. P. S. extremes and climate linkages. Nature 438: 347-350. J. and Stefan. George says there are “reports of declining flow for many rivers in the adjacent Canadian prairies. Hydrologic effects of climate change in western Canada. Journal of Hydrometeorology 6: 476-482. Journal of Climate 14: 2317-2328. 1981. McCabe. Sacramento River flow reconstructed to A. and Rood et al. and Sea Level    which point to an underlying cause related to climate. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Knox. G. Agricultural influence on landscape sensitivity in the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Stockton. T. 2000.F.C.A.A. Consequently. D. Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin 18. Carson. subject/s/sfrtnorthamerica. and Kroll.D. Yulianti and Burn (1998). E. more frequent and/or more severe floods and droughts.C. C.K.B. and Ramirez.P. D.A.M. George believes “the potential threats to water supply faced by the Canadian Prairie Provinces over the next few decades will not include decreasing streamflow in the Winnipeg River basin. Canada. Late Holocene lake sedimentology and climate change in southern Alberta. and Vecchia. Paleoceanography 14: 498-510. Alternative principal components regression procedures for dendrohydrologic reconstructions. 2005.C. R. Geophysical Research Letters 32: doi:10. Samuelson. northeastern Utah: Implications for palaeohydrology of the southern Uinta Mountains. just as there are conflicting predictions about the future water status of portions of the prairie provinces of Canada. J.. Kennett. K.C and Munroe. Streamflow trends in the United States. and typically extremely so. 869 from tree rings..co2science. they are positive. G. Therrell. and Wolock. Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation.K. Long-term surface-water supply and streamflow trends in the Upper Colorado River Basin based on tree-ring analysis. and Wood. 2002. Dunne. J. 2000.M. Piechota. Catena 42: 193-224. S.J. so too are there conflicting reports about past streamflow trends in this region. Douglas. Water Resources Bulletin 17: 939-947.. Decreasing river discharge in northern Canada. Sea Ice. Déry. References Brown.F. H. K. H.. Journal of Hydrology 334: 319-333. Tree-ring based streamflow reconstruction for Ashley Creek. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 227-230. and Wywrot.A.php.. Journal of Hydrology 306: 215-233.G.W. Streamflow in the Winnipeg River basin. J. 2001. Precipitation.H. G. J. 2005. and Ingram B. Journal of Hydrology 332: 396-411. D. Marine evidence for episodic Holocene megafloods in North America and the northern Gulf of Mexico. Smith. Lins. Dery and Wood (2005).V. Burn. J. 2001. Meko.M.C. 2002. St. and Jacoby Jr.L.M. and Dracup. Canada: Trends. Milly. Twentieth-century decline in streamflow from the hydrographic apex of North America. St. and Clark. A.J. Quaternary Research 49: 96-101. (2005). Not only are real-world observations nearly all not undesirable. The Holocene 15: 602-611. P. we note there appear to be few real-world data that provide any significant support for the contention that CO2-induced global warming will lead to more frequent and/or more severe increases and decreases in streamflow that result in.W.D. Global patterns of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. and Hughes.” Thus.” Countering these positive findings.V.P. S. E. C.S. M. 1999. St. C. although based on the observed trends he discovered. Institute of 183 . Climate Research 20: 19-29. or are indicative of. 1999. George. E.1029/2005GL022845.P.Observations: Glaciers. and Stockton.N.. McCabe. Water Resources Research 36: 3241-3249. E. 2007. Baisan. Molnar.G. Journal of Hydrology 160: 53-70. M. Hidalgo. J. Campbell. 2001. especially in Manitoba.J. Novotny. In the vast majority of cases. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 37: 1029-1039.D. 1994. C. Additional information on this topic. L. 2005. It is anybody’s guess as to what will actually occur in the years and decades ahead. 2005. M.H. 1976.. H. G. and Slack..M. 2005. can be found at http://www. Trends and temperature sensitivity of moisture conditions in the conterminous United States. Recent trends in precipitation and streamflow in the Rio Puerco Basin. Stream flow in Minnesota: Indicator of climate change. however. Reconstructed stream flow for the Salt and Verde Rivers from tree-ring data.. C. Trends and variability in snowmelt runoff in the western United States. P.R. Journal of Hydrology 240: 90-105. Rood. observed trends appear to be just the opposite of what is predicted to occur.

any acceleration in sea-level rise. In addition. 2000). Journal of the American Water Resources certainty that sea-level rise is indeed accelerating. Mörner (2004) provided a more expansive setting for his analysis of the subject by noting that “prior to Woodhouse.S. important of all. focusing satellite altimeter data to estimate global empirical on thermal expansion of the oceans and continental orthogonal functions. 2006. they cite the work of Nerem and Mitchum (2001) as indicating that “about 20 years of satellite Woodhouse.1 mm/year. 1998. analyses of “best estimate” of the rate of globally averaged seaTOPEX-Poseidon altimetry data and the global ocean level rise over the last half of the twentieth century temperature data of Levitus et al. D. Journal of Hydrology 202: 263-279. glacial eustatic response to the melting of continental Yulianti.3 mm/year. C.5. they determined that historical tide gauge data. In this section we examine mid-60s. uncertainties and it is still difficult to affirm with USA. in his words. Canadian Water Resources masses over the globe . Water Resources Research 42: these data alone. and Meko.” processes that cause variations in mean global sea Church et al. which suggested to California. Mörner.1029/2005WR004455.T. C. Vice stopped (Pirazzoli et al. 1997. Mörner notes that “the indication of an increase in the mean rate-of-rise of record can be divided into three parts: (1) 1993-1996 the global ocean surface in response to the supposedly with a clear trend of stability. We then examine closely the event of these years and (3) 1998-2000 with an various scenarios proposed whereby melting ice irregular record of no clear tendency.. they say that “satellite Woodhouse. “there is no fear of any massive future flooding as claimed in most global warming Cazenave et al. Tree-ring reconstruction of mean altimetry and in situ temperature data have their own annual streamflow for Middle Boulder Creek. they noted that rates-of-rise that were approximately six times greater 184 .A. oscillation. J. and Burn.” Most would cause sea levels to rise. Colorado. this rise seems to have presentations of those. Mörner states “there is a total absence of any recent ‘acceleration in sea-level rise’ as often claimed by IPCC and related groups.M. as they alternatively note.” In Association 37: 561-570. (2004) used TOPEX/Poseidon level on interannual to decadal time scales. therefore. variations in ocean current intensity and in the atmospheric circulation system and maybe even in some deformation of the gravitational potential 4. which they combined with water mass balance.Climate Change Reconsidered    Geophysics and Planetary Physics. 2006.R.” but that “sea-level records are now between climatic warming and low streamflow in the dominated by the irregular redistribution of water Prairies region of Canada.8 ± 0. Climate change However. 2001. Los Angeles. likely related to warming of the world ocean. and Burn.” 10. with the advent of the historical trends in sea level to see if there is any TOPEX/Poseidon mission. Sea-level Rise surface. D. he reports that “the mean eustatic rise in sea level for the period The possibility of large sea-level rises as a result of 1850-1930 was [on] the order of 1. fact.5 mm/year.” global warming is featured prominently in but that “after 1930-40. Updated streamflow reconstructions for the Upper altimetry data would be necessary to detect. D.” Thereafter. to estimate monthly the rate of thermal-induced sea-level rise over the past distributions of large-scale sea-level variability and 40 years was about 0. in his words.J.1 Mean Global Sea Levels and. at least.” In addition. primarily driven by Journal 23: 45-60. C.. up to the “stop” global warming. all sea-level curves ring reconstructions of Colorado streamflow for water are dominated by a general rise in sea level in true resource planning.” Westmacott. Their resultant the end of the twentieth century. (2) 1997-1998 with a unprecedented warming of the planet over the course high-amplitude rise and fall recording the ENSO of the twentieth century.H.” With respect to the last 150 years. J. such as former U. From early 1993 to change over the period 1950-2000. (2003) studied climate-related scenarios.” 4.. who call for urgent action to This stasis. and Lukas. Climatic Change 78: 293-315. University of than the mean four-decade rate. Multi-century tree5000-6000 years before present. S. “lasted. Gray. 1973.A. 1989. J. (2000) yielded was 1.5. Investigating links ice caps.H.. with Colorado River Basin. them that “an acceleration took place in the recent past.0-1. In doing so.” President Al Gore. however. “the recent rise effects on the hydrologic regime within the Churchillmay just correspond to the rising branch of a decadal Nelson River Basin.A.

” Lombard et al. 1993. (2005) introduced their study of the subject by noting that “recent altimeter observations indicate an increase in the rate of sea-level rise during the past decade to 3. 1991. and North Atlantic Oscillation). investigated. and Sea Level    “decadal variability in sea level is observed.” Lombard et al.” 185 .” They explored these opposing options “using the new eddypermitting Simple Ocean Data Assimilation version 1.” which fact “has led to questions about whether the rate of 20thcentury sea-level rise. In terms of the global mean.” In the mean. Sea Ice. however.” Even the 50 years of global ocean temperature data we possess are insufficient to tell us much about the degree of global warming that may have occurred over the past half-century.2 reanalysis of global temperature. (2005) compared estimates of coastal and global averaged sea level for 1950 to 2000.” What is more. Noting that sea-level trends derived from TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry over 1993-2003 are “mainly caused by thermal expansion” and are thus “very likely a non-permanent feature.4 mm/year. and thus a longer time series is needed to rule this out. Church et al. such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.” noting further that “this apparent increase could have resulted from enhanced melting of continental ice or from decadal changes in thermosteric and halosteric effects. they note that “for the past 50 years.Observations: Glaciers. they reported that no increase in the rate of sealevel rise has been detected for the entire twentieth century.. White et al. (2003) when they claimed that “the geocentric rate of global mean sea-level rise over the last decade (1993-2003) is now known to be very accurate.5-2 mm/year. with some regions exhibiting trends about 10 times the global mean. and in spite of the many new instruments and techniques that are being used to search for a global warming signal in global sea-level data. well above the centennial estimate of 1. Holgate and Woodworth. is really representative of the true global mean.5 mm/year for the decade centered on 1980).” Consequently. sealevel trends caused by change in ocean heat storage also show high regional variability.” However. there were both higher and lower values. +2. (2003). Maul and Martin. Carton et al. Precipitation. with positive values (in the range 1 to 1.” However. they then admit “the altimetric rate could still be influenced by decadal variations of sea level unrelated to long-term climate change. as any long-term increase in global sea level that may have been caused by the temperature increase is dwarfed by decadal-scale variability. but to date there is no detectable secular increase in the rate of sea-level rise over the period 1950-2000. Cazenave and Nerem (2004) seemed to dismiss the caveats expressed in Cazenave et al.8 ± 0. there was a net rise in sea level due to the thermal expansion of sea water.5 mm/year for the decade centered on 1970) and negative values (-1 to -1. salinity. and sea level spanning the period 1968-2001. Pacific Decadal Oscillation. (2005) investigated the thermosteric or temperature-induced sea-level change of the past 50 years using the global ocean temperature data of Levitus et al. so one cannot be sure what would be implied if earlier data were available or what will be implied as more data are acquired. (2000) and Ishii et al. 2004) had shown the measured rate of global sealevel rise to have been rather stable over the past hundred years. Their results confirmed the earlier findings of “no significant increase in the rate of sealevel rise during this 51-year period. In between these two points. they found that warming-induced steric effects “are enough to explain much of the observed rate of increase in the rate of sea-level rise in the last decade of the twentieth century without need to invoke acceleration of melting of continental ice. but only because the record began at the bottom of a trough and ended at the top of a peak.” Noting that global climate models “show an increase in the rate of global average sea-level rise during the twentieth century. and over the full half-century period Lombard et al. as determined from TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason altimeter measurements. as they describe it.2 mm/year. based on poorly distributed historical tide gauges. Cazenave and Nerem report that “these tools seem to have raised more questions than they have answered.” but that several prior studies (Douglas.” and that “this rate is significantly larger than the historical rate of sea-level change measured by tide gauges during the past decades (in the range of 1-2 mm/year). 1992. This work revealed that thermosteric sealevel variations are dominated by decadal oscillations of the planet’s chief ocean-atmosphere climatic perturbations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation.” They also noted that satellite altimetry had revealed a “non-uniform geographical distribution of sea-level change.” In addition. citing the work of Woodworth (1990) and Douglas (1992). thermosteric trends computed over 10-year windows “show large fluctuations in time.” They determined that “the effect on global sea-level rise of changing salinity is small except in subpolar regions. conclude that “we simply cannot extrapolate sea level into the past or the future using satellite altimetry alone. 2004.

Cascais. (2006). In a previous paper.5. Holgate found their mean rates-ofpercent confidence interval. they report that their “global sea-level 1904-2003 mean global sea-level history of the world. trend estimate of 2.1. Holgate’s words.Climate Change Reconsidered    from 1993 to 2000 matches the 2. Holgate and Woodworth (2004) derived a mean global sea-level history from 177 coastal tide gauge records that spanned the period 1955-1998. In comparing the sea-level histories derived from Figure 4.” 4.2 as a reasonable best representation of the In addition. In an attempt to extend that record back in time another half-century. San Diego.1. Holgate chose nine much longer highquality records from around the world (New York. Likewise.5. The observed increase in global sea-level rise of the past effects of the warming that led to the demise of the decade.1. found no need to invoke the if it were as extreme as the IPCC claims it has been— melting of land-based glacial ice to explain the cannot be detected in global sea-level data. as described in sea-level rise found from TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter the preceding paragraph. with shaded 95 the two 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations concentration experienced a dramatic increase in its to derive nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large rate-of-rise just after 1950 (shifting from a 1900-1950 ocean regions.1. Honolulu.7 mm/year And as determined by Lombard et al. in (2006). rise were indeed similar over the second half of the with shaded standard error interval. say “global sea-level rise is irregular and varies As a result of this finding.0 mm/year for the period 186 . Holgate constructed greatly over time. Carton et al. question in the negative.1. the high thermostericdata. this observation thus implied.” their results pretty much answer the global ocean’s transient thermal behavior. Balboa.33 ppm/year to a 1950-2000 mean global sea level (gsl) and gsl rate-of-rise (gsl mean rate-of-rise of 1.5.17 ppm/year). adapted from Jevrejeva et al. the mean global rate) curves depicted in Figure 4. although the atmospheric CO2 based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis and removed 2. Consequently. Trieste. Little Ice Age—which the IPCC contends should Even more revealing was the globally distributed have been considerably less dramatic than the sea-level time series study of Jevrejeva et al. warming of the late twentieth century—are readily who analyzed information contained in the Permanent apparent to the right of the vertical red line in the Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method figure. In concluding our examination of the peerreviewed sea-level science. (2005) and Volkov and van Aken wonder why late twentieth century global warming— (2005). nor has it subsequently exceeded its 1950 rateof-rise. Mean global sea level (top).” but “it is apparent that rates in the the nine-station-derived wavering line in Figure 1920-1945 period are likely to be as large as today’s. we report the findings of the most recent study of Holgate (2007). and Auckland) to see if their combined mean progression over the 1955-1998 period was similar enough to the concomitant mean sea-level history of the 177 stations to employ the mean nine-station record as a reasonable representation of mean global sea-level history for the much longer period stretching from 1904 to 2003..” et al. twentieth century. sea-level rate-of-rise did not trend upwards after 1950. Jevrejeva gauges from each region are able to [do]. and mean gsl rate-of-rise (bottom).4 ± 1. Key West. and in harmony with the findings of The observations described above make us Levitus et al.6 ± 0. which they combined to produce the mean rate-of-rise of 0. that “a few high quality records from around the world can be used to examine large The figure clearly shows no acceleration of seaspatial-scale decadal variability as well as many level rise since the end of the Little Ice Age. Newlyn.” With respect to what the four researchers induced rate-of-rise of global sea level over the past describe as “the discussion on whether sea-level rise decade is likely “a non-permanent feature” of the is accelerating.

Global and Planetary Change 47: 1-16. Douglas.I. N. Present-day sea level change: observations and causes. Holgate.. and Nerem.A. Le Traon. and Ishii. Figure 4. Ishii. Cumulative increase in mean global sea level (1904-2003) derived from nine high-quality tide gauge records from around the world.1. J. Kimoto.45 ± 0. A. Warming of the world ocean. and Le Provost.J. Journal of Geophysical Research 110: 10.-Y. Sea Ice. Garcia.. 2004.C.S.I. 2006.” Another way of thinking about the century-long sea-level history portrayed in Figure 4.2 is suggested by the curve we have fit to it. Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records. B... P. A. R. he calculated that the mean rate of global sea-level rise was “larger in the early part of the last century (2. 2003.J. Monthly Weather Review 131: 51-73.699-12.1029/2004JC002817.P. M. 2005. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. R.A. ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years.1029/2004GL019626. Moore. and Woodworth. Antonov. J. Journal of Geophysical Research 97: 12. T. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. T. and Mitrovica. Historical ocean subsurface temperature analysis with error estimates. Cazenave. S.X. Present-day sea level change: observations and causes. and Kachi.. in the mean. Sea level rise and the warming of the oceans in the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) ocean reanalysis. J. B.co2science. Evidence for enhanced coastal sea level rise during the 1990s. and Holgate. Science 287: 22252229. EOF analysis of upper ocean heat content.. Journal of Geophysical Research 96: 6981-6992. P. 2004. 1956-2003. Douglas. Evidence for enhanced coastal sea level rise during the 1990s.. B. Cabanes. S.E.. Additional information on this topic.J. S. Holgate. M... C.34 mm/year 1954-2003). 2004. 2003.C. On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century. A. White.C..L. Lombard. R. Contribution of thermal expansion to present-day sea-level change revisited..5. J. K. Lambeck. 1991. Space Science Reviews 108: 131144. Global sea level acceleration. Holgate. Antonov. References Carton.1.P. 2004.S.1029/2004GL019626. M. 2007.. Cazenave. Dominh.J. Levitus.1029/2003RG000139. M. Geophysical Research Letters 32: 10.. and Sea Level    Based on that history. A.L. Jevrejeva. Journal of Climate 17: 2609-2625. S. Geophysical Research Letters 34: 10... Adapted from Holgate (2007). K. J. C. 1992.A. Grinsted.1029/2005JC003229.A.03 ± 0. which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising. and Woodworth. 2005. and Grodsky. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: 10. J. Global sea level rise. 2000. Cazenave. 187 Whichever way one looks at the findings of Holgate—either as two successive linear trends (representative of the mean rates-of-rise of the first and last halves of the twentieth century) or as one longer continuous curve (such as we have drawn)— the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea-level rise has not accelerated over the recent past.C. S. and has probably fallen.2. S. Precipitation. M. Reviews of Geophysics 42: 10. P. Coleman. 2005.5. . Boyer. A. in comparison with the latter part (1.1029/2005GL023606/.Observations: Glaciers. Gennero.35 mm/year 1904-1953). Estimates of the regional distribution of sea level rise over the 1950-2000 period. including reviews on sea level not discussed here. H. Levitus. C. S. Church.. can be found at http://www. S. and Locarnini.1029/2006GL028492. Giese. and Stephens.706.php under the heading Sea Level.

Hence.L. Palaeoclimatology. even for sheet including ice shelves and embedded ice rises.M. In another review of the subject that was published about the same time. (1999) used more than 1. Germany: the older ECHAM3 and the new and In: Fu. in could well be little to no change in mean global sea their words. CA. 2004. future. some of which could be change of sea level in the extratropical North Atlantic and unpopular or costly.M.T.L.1029/2004GL021391. he was forced to conclude that “the validity of the parameterizations used by [various] glaciological modeling studies to estimate changes in 4. say “we are still unable to 188 . and Gregory. of Climatology 10: 129-143. P. and high warming scenarios. and van Aken..” which that may occur over the rest of this century.Climate Change Reconsidered    Maul.-A. “are around 18% and 7% higher than the level due to the likely rise in the air’s CO2 content estimates widely adopted at present [1999]. Grant. for low.A. (Eds.L. the two models were in close Applications. Nerem. P. Trends of relative sea-level changes: past. 2005. the problem again. general circulation models developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg. P. 2nd ed. he says today’s best models numbers. Sea level rise at Key determine even the sign of the contribution of the West. 2000. Eustatic changes during the last 300 broad consensus for the conclusion that a 1°C years. In: Integrated Coastal Zone Management. noting that “for purposes of Volkov. Wild and Ohmura (2000) Mörner.A. 2005. the veracity of their models to accurately predict future evolution of the earth’s natural system or Woodworth. however. while Antarctica’s contribution would be a IPC Publ. indicative of decreases in sea level. They suggest that result. 1811 Gton yr-1 (149 kg m-2 yr-1) and for the entire ice middle.” further stating that with “greater societal relevance comes increased responsibility for White. 1989. van der Veen concludes that the confidence net icefall on Antarctica may well have increased level that can be placed in current ice sheet mass somewhat over that prior decade and a half. A. and Woodworth. Two years later.5. Climate-related formulating policies.” Van der Veen calculated. Sea level change. and Cazenave. pp. 1993. N. 1973. and unpublished in situ measurements of the surface that uncertainties in model parameters are sufficiently mass balance of Antarctica to produce an assessment great to yield a 95 percent confidence range of of yearly ice accumulation over the continent.1029/2005GL023097. van der Veen (2002) addressed Quaternary International 2: 63-71. H.” In stepping forward records of European mean sea level. Palaeogeography.” These values. Academic Press. Reeh (1999) found a Morner. 2001. J.77 millimeters Europe. J. because of uncertainties in the various assessment of the subject.70 millimeters per year. G.S.2. Coastal geophysical modelers to demonstrate convincingly and global averaged sea level rise for 1950 to 2000. Their projected meltwater contributions from Greenland results indicated that the “total net surface mass and Antarctica that encompass global sea-level balance for the conterminous grounded ice sheet is lowering as well as rise by 2100 A. with 349. International Journal to perform this task with respect to sea-level change. both of them predicting increases in ice sheet growth. 1846-1992: America’s longest instrument Antarctic Ice Sheet to recent sea-level change. N. N. fall on the order of 0. balance models “is quite low.-A. The following year.30 to 0.. Vaughn et al. As a were derived about 15 years earlier. N.20 to 0.800 published demonstrated. 33-37. and Martin. A search for accelerations in particular components thereof.. Geophysical Research Letters density functions be derived for predicted values such 32: 10. D. global sea level. Church.) Satellite Altimetry and improved ECHAM4. for example. L. San Diego. Estimating future sea level changes from past records. Sea level changes along Western sea-level rise on the order of 0. Under a doubled atmospheric Earth Sciences: A Handbook of Techniques and CO2 scenario. 329agreement in their mass balance projections. Greenland’s contribution would be a Morner. present. G. there -1 -2 -1 2288 Gton yr (166 kg m yr ). D.J. Florida. warming would create but little net change in mean Palaeoecology 9: 153-181. and Mitchum. London-Hong Kong.D. Antarctica Contribution to Sea Level surface accumulation and ablation under changing climate conditions has not been convincingly Vaughn et al.A. the worst of the IPCC warming projections.M. Pirazzoli. Geophysical Research Letters 32: 10.-A. as sea-level rise.” record? Geophysical Research Letters 20: 1955-1958.” Paraphrasing an earlier Nevertheless. Global and Planetary Change 40: 49studied the mass balance of Antarctica using two 54. per year. 1990. pp. D. it is imperative that probability North Pacific in 1993-2003.R. R.

 Precipitation.” The bottom line of Wadhams and Munk’s analysis. Russell. Shepherd et al. Wild. Sea Ice.3.co2science. Wadhams. can be found at http://www.. 4. is that the continental runoff which is “allowed. 2004. M.php. 2002.P. Journal of Climate 12: 933946.” and they say this evidence “argues against subject/a/antarcticasealvl. is that there is considerable uncertainty associated with a number of basic parameters related to the water balance of the world’s oceans and the meltwater contribution of Antarctica. Until these uncertainties are satisfactorily resolved. 1999. 1998. If such IRD layers exist around Antarctica. and Sea Level    “currently reside on the lower rungs of the ladder of excellence” and “considerable improvements are needed before accurate assessments of future sealevel change can be made.5. Vaughn..” Cofaigh et al. 2001). we cannot be confident that we know what is happening at the bottom of the world in terms of phenomena related to sea level.” In this regard. (2001) analyzed five sediment cores from the continental rise west of the Antarctic Peninsula and six from the Weddell and Scotia Seas for their ice rafted debris (IRD) content. in an attempt to see if there are Antarctic analogues of the Heinrich layers of the North Atlantic Ocean. however.” and when a steric contribution of 0. the researchers reasoned.1 mm/year. from observed fast grounding-line retreat and thinning of a glacier in Pine Island Bay (Rignot. J. sea level rising. and Ohmura. rapid ice-sheet collapse around the Weddell embayment over the last few glacial cycles..” Their analysis produced “a eustatic rise of only 0. that the WAIS may disappear in the future..php and http://www. 1998).” which could obviously occur again. “is considerably lower than current estimates of sub-polar glacial Collapse and Disintegration The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is often described as the world’s most unstable large ice sheet. suggesting a negative contribution from polar ice sheets (Antarctica plus Greenland) or from other non-glacial processes. Conway et al.3. N. Mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet: Can modern observation methods reduce the uncertainty? Geografiska Annaler 81A: 735-742. A. 1999. M. and with attention to the contribution from melting of sea ice (which affects freshening but not sea level). from the timing of late Pleistocene-Holocene deglaciation in the Ross Sea (Bindschadler. after carefully studying their data. causing the sea-level to rise at a rate of 1 to 10 mm/year (Bindschadler. West Antarctic Ice Sheet 4. Ocean freshening. which could make a much larger positive or negative contribution. Bamber.5 mm/year is added to the eustatic component. and from predicted activity of ice-stream drainage in response to presumed future global warming (Oppenheimer. (2002) report.1029/2004GL020039. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. 2000. 1998).L. 1998. they assert “we do not have good estimates of the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. which testify of the repeated collapse of the eastern margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet and the concomitant massive discharge of icebergs. van der Veen. J.G. and Cooper.J.” If there was no dramatic break-up of the WAIS over the last few glacial cycles.” is the final result.R. Reassessment of net surface mass balance in Antarctica. W. “a total of 1. Change in mass balance of polar ice sheets and sea level from high-resolution GCM simulations of greenhouse warming. “it was speculated. they would be evidence of “periodic. C.Observations: Glaciers. as well as the other studies we have reviewed.. References Reeh. P. D. Giovinetto. Additional information on this topic. they concluded that “the ice sheet over the Antarctic Peninsula did not undergo widespread catastrophic collapse along its western margin during the late Quaternary. Annals of Glaciology 30: 197-203. especially since the data of 189 . widespread catastrophic collapse of basins within the Antarctic Ice Sheet.1. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Polar ice sheets and global sea level: how well can we predict the future? Global and Planetary Change 32: 165-194. sea ice melting. co2science. there’s a very good chance there will be none before the current interglacial ends.” Wadhams and Munk (2004) attempted “an independent estimate of eustatic sea-level rise based on the measured freshening of the global ocean. 1998. Perhaps the most interesting finding of their analysis.” after subtracting the effect of sea ice melt.5. Oppenheimer.6 mm/year. As Hillenbrand et al. A. However. and Munk. somewhat less than IPCC estimates. 1999).

J. can be found at http://www. S. the evidence contained in the core from the Greenland ice sheet. and Pudsey. Huybrechts (2002). and the same conclusion that was drawn by Cofaigh et al. which suggests we are probably long sensitive to a WAIS collapse changed markedly overdue for the next ice age to begin. Grobe.” and they thus claim that setting “a limit of 2°C above the 1990 global average Cofaigh. including climatic cycles. throughout the long central portion of the current Huybrechts. history of glaciomarine deposits contained in Finally.J. Dowdeswell. E. a 2°C warming of the globe would likely have little to no impact on the stability of the Conway. 2001. No evidence for a Pleistocene collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from continental margin In addition. 1999. O’Neill and Oppenheimer (2002) say the ice sheet “may have disintegrated in Bindschadler. 1998.O. C-D.” In the longest stable warm period of the entire 420. global mean) than today. 190 ..000 years. Geo-Marine record that the peak Antarctic temperature of the most Letters 22: 51-59. C. P. Quaternary Research 56: 308-321.L. Furthermore. The Antarctic Ice Sheet during the which we presently live. which is the year from which O’Neill Reviews 21: 203-231. Future of the West Antarctic Ice the past during periods only modestly warmer (~2°C Sheet. (2002) studied the nature and even a partial WAIS during the last interglacial period. 2002.8 not have the “5 to 50 centuries” that O’Neill and million years. again. Substantial who developed the pertinent temperature record (Petit contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial et al. 2002.. and Marshall. Frederichs. Hall. there was no evidence of Hillenbrand et al.” and they note that this conclusion is reviews of newer publications as they become “consistent with only a minor reduction of the WAIS available.. Cuffey and Marshall (2000) and subject/w/waiscollapse. yet. (1999) indicate that the peak temperatures measured.A.D. Nature 404: 591-594.. instability of the WAIS during the Pleistocene Additional information on this topic. we know from the Vostok ice core sediments recovered in the Amundsen Sea. and WAIS. In another paper that addresses the subject of References possible WAIS collapse. Denton. and this fact raises the 3°C temperature of each of the previous four intergalcials were warmer elevation of the last interglacial relative to the global than the peak temperature of the current interglacial temperature of 1990 to something on the order of 4° by an average of more than 2°C. Sea-level changes at the LGM from interglacial (when the most recent peak Antarctic ice-dynamic reconstructions of the Greenland and Antarctic temperature was reached). Futterer. Annals of Glaciology 14: 115-119. it was much warmer than it ice sheets during the glacial cycles.J. Past and future grounding-line four of the world’s prior interglacials was at least 2°C retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.” They the current global mean would be needed to initiate say their results “suggest relative stability rather than the process.. The average Antarctic peak temperature of all Waddington. Science 282: 428-429. B. and in spite of the current interglacial’s sediment cores recovered from the West Antarctic current relative coolness.php. recent prior interglacial was fully 3°C warmer than the peak Antarctic temperature of the interglacial in Huybrechts.M. T. “makes it unlikely that the West Antarctic ice sheet collapsed during the past 420.. Science 286: 280greater than the Antarctic peak temperature of the 283. for which.Climate Change Reconsidered    and Oppenheimer’s critical 2°C warming increment is Petit et al. H.” In fact. current interglacial.000doing so. or 5°C.co2science. they found that all proxies regarded as year record. Quaternary Science was in 1990.” pretty much Hillenbrand. D.H. P. C. in the words of the scientists Cuffey. but they “do not confirm a complete Oppenheimer suggest could be needed to bring about disintegration of the WAIS during the Pleistocene” at the WAIS disintegration subsequent to the attainment a place where “dramatic environmental changes of whatever temperature in excess of 4° or 5°C above linked to such an event should be documented.M. Gades.” citing the work of Huybrechts (1990). the Vostok ice core data continental margin in the Amundsen Sea to “test indicate that the current interglacial has been by far hypotheses of past disintegration of the WAIS. G. K. H. yet the WAIS still did not last glacial-interglacial cycle: a three-dimensional disintegrate then. justified. temperature”—above which the mean temperature of Late Quaternary iceberg rafting along the Antarctic the globe should not be allowed to rise—“is Peninsula continental rise in the Weddell and Scotia Seas. R. and that we may during the global climatic cycles of the past 1. A. we know that experiment. 2000.. 1990.K. 1999).

A... he stated that this scenario “may be put aside for the moment. that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “estimated a zero Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise over the past century. M.” Other of his statements.R. G.. 2001.000 years. However.” In another scenario. and Stievenard. Barnola. M.C.. C. which resulted in an expanding Ross Ice Shelf. Davis. Science 291: 862-864.” and there were no broad-based data to support that scenario. Wingham.” However. with potential near-term impacts on the world’s coastlines. followed by a more rapid disintegration over the following 50 to 200 years.J. they reported that the flow speed of the ice stream had decreased over this time period by about 50 percent. Lorius.. J. E.. B. D. Oppenheimer.2. 1999.3. Science 296: 1971-1972. Dynamics The supposedly imminent demise of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is what Al Gore apparently had in mind when warned that if “half of Antarctica melted or broke up and slipped into the sea. In fact. J.” However. sea levels worldwide would increase by between 18 and 20 feet” (Gore 2006). however. concluding that “human-induced climate change may play a significant role in controlling the long-term stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and in determining its contribution to sea-level change in the near future. Mansley. even the smallest of these sea-level ratesof-rise would require. believe we are witnessing the CO2-induced “early stages of rapid ice sheet collapse. Barkov. Nature 393: 325-332. 1998. This work revealed that from the time of the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. and projected a small negative (about -1 cm) contribution for the twentyfirst century. 4.-M.5. V. C.J. Sea Ice. Basile. V... Shepherd.. Bender. Bindschadler and Vornberger (1998) utilized satellite imagery taken since 1963 to examine spatial and temporal changes of Ice Stream B. Bindschadler reported that “the ice front now appears to be nearly stable.” With respect to the state and behavior of the atmosphere and ocean above and around Antarctica. J. at a rate that was. the retreat of the WAIS’s grounding line had been faster than that of its ice front.. M.. Inland thinning of Pine Island Glacier. for example. he admitted “the IPCC assessment is that no trend has yet emerged. Chappellaz.” And in the case of sea-ice extent.I. as reported by Ackert (2003). N. Precipitation. the WAIS takes 500-700 years to disappear. Delmotte. E. M. Science 281: 549-551. Fast recession of a West Antarctic glacier.. L.” Bindschadler (1998) reviewed what was known about the WAIS and analyzed its historical retreat in terms of its grounding line and ice front. detract from this conclusion. Jouzel. which flows into the Ross Ice Shelf.D. an “order of magnitude faster than models have predicted. according to Bindschadler. West Antarctica. and Oppenheimer. Legrand. and Corr. Ritz. A few scientists.. H. 1998. Once again.” Oppenheimer concluded his review with four scenarios of the future based upon various assumptions. M.M. I.” although its grounding line appeared to be retreating at a rate that suggested complete dissolution of the WAIS in another 4. Saltzman. in their words. he acknowledged that “measurements are too sparse to enable the observed changes to be attributed to any such [human-induced] global warming.A. Pepin. M.. Nature 399: 429-436. J. Rignot. Petit.” and that such changes “do not resolve the overriding question of the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.. Dangerous climate impacts and the Kyoto Protocol. because no convincing model of it has been presented. The data indicated that since that time. Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Delaygue. and Sea Level    O’Neill.” A second scenario had the WAIS gradually disintegrating and contributing to a slow sea-level rise over two centuries. He noted. Kotlyakov. “a large negative mass balance for all of West Antarctica. however.. noting that “such high rates of change in velocity greatly complicate the calculation of mass balance of the ice sheet.F. M. Lipenkov. D. J. 2002. Such a retreat would indeed result in a sustained sea-level rise of 8 to 13 cm per century.. he noted that “progress on understanding [the] WAIS over the past two decades has enabled us to lower the relative likelihood of [this] scenario. as it raises sea-level by 60-120 cm 191 . Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420.Y. Raynaud.J. Oppenheimer (1998) reviewed 122 studies that dealt with the stability of the WAIS and its effects on global sea level.000 to 7.. However...000 years from the Vostok ice core. Antarctica. the ice stream’s width had increased by nearly 4 kilometers.Observations: Glaciers. studies of the dynamics of various components of the WAIS suggest this is highly unlikely. One was that the WAIS will experience a sudden collapse that causes a 4-6 m sea-level rise within the coming century.

which the catchment area into the fast-flowing glacier.6 meters per year between 1992 and 1999. Shepherd et al. In such a situation. questions concerning the long-term stability phenomenon of considerable inertia must be at work of the WAIS. by combining the velocity data with information on The seven scientists suggested that the positions of ice thickness and snow accumulation rates. Bell et al. ongoing recession that has been underway since the Oppenheimer emphatically states that “it is not early to mid-Holocene. this observation had retreated inland at a rate of 1. In altimetry and synthetic aperture radar interferometry.Climate Change Reconsidered    20. (1999) within 600 years. In doing so.” although their work did not indicate Island Glacier drainage basin between 1992 and 1999. if any.” as he puts it. “but with low confidence. (1998) used Stenoien and Bentley (2000) mapped the aerogeophysical data to investigate processes that catchment region of Pine Island Glacier using radar govern fast-moving ice streams on the WAIS.e. complete deglaciation of slow. which could well happen even if ice the same rate. in the words of the researcher. Shepherd et al. maximum extent until about 10. they “estimate examined previously reported research.” Also writing in Nature. Because rate of ice thinning across the glacier over a 7-year the study had utilized only four years of data. a modest rise in near-surface air This work revealed that the grounded glacier thinned temperature might have on this phenomenon.” and since glacier dynamics typically remote West Antarctica was advancing or retreating.” And if that happens. Then. the West Antarctic Ice Sheet have the potential to One year later. sea level falls.” which also suggests that a long-term however. he notes that “the Antarctic the WAIS will occur in about 7. were to continue unabated? retreating. lose mass at the present rate it will be entirely afloat Also in the journal Science. which were studied to in accumulation and must result from glacier determine whether or not this major ice stream in dynamics.” conducting some of their own. Oppenheimer assesses the relative the ice sheet’s grounding line remained near its likelihood of this scenario to be the highest of all. as a result of internal ice meters per year. that the mass balance of the catchment region was not They concluded that “geological structures beneath significantly different from zero. respond to phenomena operating on time scales of The data indicated that the glacier’s grounding line hundreds to thousands of years. be answered at present. And in commenting grounding-line retreat of the WAIS is part of an upon the suite of scenarios just described. (2001) used dictate the evolution of the dynamic ice system.” i.. while the net contribution to eustatic sea level to be 6 mm. which glacier’s grounding line had been found to be sounds pretty dramatic. and the discharge of grounded end of the twentieth century it was retreating at about ice decreases. suggested that this retreat may have been the result of additionally say they could “detect no change in the a slight increase in ocean water temperature. we could expect of the WAIS since its maximum glacial extent some 192 .000 years ago.3 kilometers would argue against twentieth century warming being per year over the four-year period of the study. subsequent satellite images suggested that The researchers state that “if the trunk continues to the location of the ice front had remained stable. Conway et al. they determined that per century.2 ± 0.” level rise. dealing with the retreat which means that over each century. which suggests that if it continues to shelves thin and major fast-moving glaciers do not behave as it has in the past. within an uncertainty of 30 percent. Last is what whereupon it began to retreat at a rate of about 120 occurs if ice streams slow. period. appeared to act as lubricants for the overlying ice. what effect. these data suggested which they used to develop a velocity map that a close correlation between the margins of various ice revealed a system of tributaries that channel ice from streams and the underlying sedimentary basins. The contribution to sea-level rise turns increasingly researchers concluded that the modern-day negative. they were ice-stream margins and their onsets were controlled able to calculate. “cannot in this particular situation. by features of the underlying sedimentary basins. This work also indicated that at the sheet readjustments.000 years.000 years ago.” In addition. and that “it is not a possible to place high confidence in any specific consequence of anthropogenic warming or recent seaprediction about the future of WAIS. the researchers wrote that “the measurements of the grounding line of Pine Island thinning cannot be explained by short-term variability Glacier from 1992 to 1996. Rignot (1998) reported on satellite radar Of this phenomenon. conjunction with various models. Rignot a primary cause of the thinning. satellite altimetry and interferometry to determine the modulating the influence of changes in the global rate of change of the ice thickness of the entire Pine climate system. although the But what if the rate of glacier thinning. by up to 1.

” but that “the eastward drainage toward the Weddell Sea is close to mass balance. about the thickness of a paper clip.php.” In a summary statement that takes account of these observations. was deglaciated within the past 11. 2003. who studied ice-rafted debris obtained from four cores in Prince Gustav Channel. 1998. “over the last few centuries.” Indeed. “colder conditions after about 1.E. Precipitation.. and even with climate warming increases in snowfall should compensate for additional melting. T. Their efforts indicated that the ice shelves had also retreated in mid-Holocene time.co2science. can be found at http://www. Blankenship. Based on these ages and the elevations at which the cobbles were found. Brozena.9 ka allowed the ice shelf to reform. Morse. Stone et al.” (2) of the three major WAIS drainages. Publishing in the same year were Pudsey and Evans (2001). R. that “the exposed rock in the Ford Ranges. and Hodge. D.” adding that “there is strong evidence that the limit of grounded ice in both regions—and in Pine Island Bay—is still receding. Scambos. References Ackert Jr.” Although they concluded that the ice shelves are sensitive indicators of regional climate change. in their subject/w/waisdynamics.A.” while Ackert (2003) makes the point even plainer when he says “recent ice sheet dynamics appear to be dominated by the ongoing response to deglacial forcing thousands of years ago.000-plus years. His primary conclusions relative to the WAIS were that (1) “substantial melting on the upper surface of WAIS would occur only with considerable atmospheric warming.L. Stone et al. In fact. Raymond (2002) presented a brief appraisal of the status of the world’s major ice sheets. C.” where ice “has thinned and retreated since 7000 years ago.400 years ago. the disappearance of the ice shelves was not unique.” such as might possibly occur for the WAIS if the planet’s temperature continues its post-Little Ice Age rebound. Influence of subglacial geology on the onset of a West 193 .” Additional information on this topic. it had happened before without our help. widened. convincingly demonstrates that the current thinning and retreat of the WAIS are merely manifestations of a slow but steady deglaciation that has been going on ever since the beginning-of-the-end of the last great ice age.” The researchers also say their results “add to the evidence that West Antarctic deglaciation continued long after the disappearance of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and may still be under way. and it could well have happened again on its own. margins of active ice streams migrated inward and outward..D.” Stone et al. they reconstructed a history of ice-sheet thinning over the past 10.” while the “overall mass balance has changed from loss to gain. Finn. and Sea Level    global sea level to rise by about one millimeter.. the ice streams that drain northward to the Amundsen Sea have accelerated. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Science 299: 57-58. An ice sheet remembers. D. rather than by a recent anthropogenic warming or sea-level rise. R.” And (3) of the westward drainage into the Ross Ice Shelf. in their words.. and thinned “over substantial distances back into the ice sheet. the breakup of the Prince Gustav Channel ice shelves was likely nothing more than the culmination of the Antarctic Peninsula’s natural recovery from the cold conditions of Little Ice Age. say “the pattern of recent change is consistent with the idea that thinning of the WAIS over the past few thousand years is continuing.. Bell.P. up to 700 m above the present ice surface.Observations: Glaciers. they were careful to state that “we should not view the recent decay as an unequivocal indicator of anthropogenic climate change. Sea Ice.” and that “several lines of evidence suggest that the maximum ice sheet stood considerably higher than this. Raymond says that “the total mass of today’s ice sheets is changing only slowly.A.M.” noting that the ice sheet in Marie Byrd Land “shows the same pattern of steady Holocene deglaciation as the marine ice sheet in the Ross Sea. S. J. but that.” The work of Stone et al.. additionally report that the consistency of the exposure age versus elevation trends of their data “indicates steady deglaciation since the first of these peaks emerged from the ice sheet some time before 10.” as “a currently active ice stream (Whillans) has slowed by about 20% over recent decades. which until 1995 was covered by floating ice shelves.” and that the mass balance of the region “has been negative throughout the Holocene. This history showed.M.000 years. (2003)—working on western Marie Byrd Land—report how they determined cosmogenic 10 Be exposure dates of glacially transported cobbles in elevation transects on seven peaks of the Ford Ranges between the ice sheet’s present grounding line and the Clark Mountains some 80 km inland.

3.. Fast recession of a West Antarctic glacier. results showed that. 2003. C.W.2. year period June 1995 to April 2000. and Corr.F.D. Hall. understand the behavior of both the East and West Nature 394: 58-62. findings thus suggests that both portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be rather impervious to climate changes of the magnitude characteristic of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do because of the great inertial forces at work over much About It. 1998. West Antarctica were Wingham et al. Science 281: 549-550.L. Wingham. calculate the mass balance of the interior of the H. Inland thinning of Pine Island Glacier. Changes in the border the Weddell Sea today “are more extensive West Antarctic Ice Sheet since 1963 from declassified than they were during the previous glacial minimum. G. Antarctica: A study of the catchment using sink of sea-level mass this century..C. West continental ice sheet over the past century. B. S. Pine Island Antarctic Ice Sheet has been “only a modest source or Glacier. Science 279: 689-692. Mansley. J. Gades. longer time scales—that the modern East and West Oppenheimer. West Antarctica. 1998. and Evans. They Weddell Sea continental shelf and the western determined the east Antarctic ice sheet had a five-year Weddell Sea deep-sea floor in an attempt to better 194 .” This full set of 299: 99-102.5. Sugden. Antarctic ice sheets.J. thereby slowly Pudsey. Science in balance at the millennial scale. A. decades and centuries. Nature 393: 325-332. D. P.A. L. In doing so. C. First survey of Antarctic raising global sea level. M.A.. Antarctic ice sheets have not yet shrunk to their minimum. and that the modern West and East retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. shrinking? In what follows. Science 282: 428-429.J. Their Antarctica. USA. M. 2000. noting that this conclusion is in harmony with a body of relative sea-level and geodetic evidence Stone. Geology 29: 787-790. their data led them to conclude that “significant deglaciation of the Bindschadler. Past and future grounding-line minimum. and Bentley. Science 298: used satellite radar altimeter measurements from 1992 2147-2148. 1998. 2001.R. who Raymond. E. interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements and Wingham et al. Global warming and the stability Antarctic Ice Sheets may well continue to shrink and of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.F.” satellite photography. J.779. Ice sheets on the move..Climate Change Reconsidered    Antarctic ice stream from aerogeophysical observations. and Siddoway.. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: imbalance for the Antarctic interior is unlikely. Balco. An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary what global air temperature may currently be doing. sub-ice shelf sediments reveals mid-Holocene ice shelf Also studying the combined ice sheets of East and retreat. Science 291: 862-864. H.J. Denton.” and that the ice masses that Bindschadler. entire Antarctic Ice Sheet.M. M.O.761-21.D. and larger ice shelves than existed during the last glacial Waddington.. J.D. C..” As a result. C. Emmaus. Future of the West Antarctic Ice Weddell Sea continental shelf took place prior to the Sheet. concluded that “a large century-scale radar altimetry. Cowdery. Holocene “supporting the notion that the grounded ice has been deglaciation of Marie Byrd Land. PA. 2002. Rodale. E. R.H. (1998). we briefly review the Davis and Ferguson (2004) evaluated elevation findings of several researchers who have focused their changes of the entire Antarctic ice sheet over the fiveattention on the mass balance of the WAIS. 2001..” 21. the interior of the Stenoien. 1998. D. Science 286: 280283. 1999.G.” It is thus to be expected—independent of Gore.J. last glacial maximum. 2006. They concluded “that the current interglacial setting is characterized by a more extensive ice margin and Conway. A. Caffee. and Vornberger. G. while using snowfall variability data obtained from ice cores to ultimately Shepherd. Mass Balance the type of change most likely to occur—if there is any change at all—in response to the ongoing rise in Is the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) growing or the air’s CO2 content. to 1996 to estimate the rate of change of the thickness of nearly two-thirds of the grounded portion of the Rignot. at most. release more icebergs to the Southern Ocean over the coming years.. which is 4.E. A. R. Sass III.. based on more Anderson and Andrews (1999) analyzed grain than 123 million elevation change measurements size and foraminiferal contents of radiometrically made by the European Space Agency’s European dated sediment cores collected from the eastern Remote Sensing 2 satellite radar altimeter.

was due to increased snowfall.g. the ice volume of the entire continent grew ever larger over the last five years of the twentieth century. One year later. about the fate of either ice sheet. given current uncertainties. (4) We do not know if ice sheets made a significant net contribution to sea-level rise over the past several decades. (10) We do not know. (8) We do not know if current uncertainties in future ice sheet behavior can be expressed quantitatively. the west Antarctic ice sheet had a five-year trend of -3. ice shelves) could occur more generally over the ice sheets. and how much can warming affect those processes?” In answer to these questions. (9) We do not know what would be useful early warning signs of impending ice sheet disintegration nor when these might be detectable. the Pine Island.” They concluded “there is good evidence that the strongly negative trends at these outlet glaciers. After a brief overview of the topic.6°S) had a five-year trend of 0.” After a cursory review of the science related to these two key questions.” which we list below.. driven by the significantly positive trend of the much larger east Antarctic ice sheet.6 cm/year. (1) We do not know if the apparent response of glaciers and ice streams to surface melting and melting at their termini (e.0 ± 0. which is obviously what prompts the questions in the first place and validates the content of the statements. (13) We do not know if any of the various temperatures proposed in the literature as demarking danger of disintegration for one or the other ice sheet are useful in contributing to a better understanding of “dangerous anthropogenic interference. and melting and ice discharge to the ocean through ice streams on the other. Sea Ice.0 cm/year. if our present understanding of the vulnerability of either the WAIS or GIS is potentially useful in defining “dangerous anthropogenic interference” with earth’s climate system. Thwaites. and Sea Level    trend of 1. 195 . nor how these differences might be resolved. consequently. is occurring at the grounding lines of these outlet glaciers. Oppenheimer and Alley say their review “leads to a multitude of questions with respect to the basic science of the ice sheets.” and that recent observations “indicate strong basal melting. and Land glaciers of West Antarctica exhibited five-year trends ranging from -26 to—135 cm/year. according to Davis and Ferguson.” (14) We do not know on what timescale future learning might affect the answers to these questions. DeVicq. Precipitation. (5) We do not know what might be useful paleoclimate analogs for sea level and ice sheet behavior in a warmer world. in an “editorial essay” (i.4 cm/year.” Nevertheless. In discussing their findings. (2) We do not know if dynamical responses are likely to continue for centuries and propagate further inland or if it is more likely that they will be damped over time. (12) We do not know if either ice sheet seems more vulnerable and thus may provide a more immediate measure of climate “danger” and a more pressing target for research. the mass balance of the corresponding drainage basins.4 ± 0. (7) We do not know the prospects for expanding measurements and improving models of ice sheets nor the timescales involved. (3) We do not know if surface melting could cause rapid collapse of the Ross or Filchner-Ronne ice shelves.6 ± 1. Davis and Ferguson noted that the strongly negative trends of the coastal glacier outlets “suggest that the basin results are due to dynamic changes in glacier flow. and the entire Antarctic continent (north of 81. caused by ocean temperature increases. a state of affairs reflecting the weakness of current models and uncertainty in paleoclimatic reconstructions. and the overall mass balance of the west Antarctic ice sheet may be related to increased basal melting caused by ocean temperature increases. as occurred for the smaller Larsen ice shelf.Observations: Glaciers. instead of listing them in their original question form. However. not a peer-reviewed submission) published in the journal Climatic Change. (6) We do not know the reliability of Antarctic and Southern Ocean temperatures (and polar amplification) that are projected by current GCMs. Oppenheimer and Alley (2005) discussed “the degree to which warming can affect the rate of ice loss by altering the mass balance between precipitation rates on the one hand. they noted that “the key questions with respect to both WAIS and GIS are: What processes limit ice velocity.” with respect to the WAIS and Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). the majority of which increase. nor do we know why they differ so widely among models. they said that “no consensus has emerged about these issues nor.e.. we post them in the form of statements that address what we do not know about the various sub-topics mentioned. (11) We do not know if the concept of a threshold temperature is useful. In addition.

(2002). Oerter et al.” The first of these time period 1980 to 2004 that used ERA-40 fields as confounding factors.. km3/year. Antarctica. since they calculated that the East value of 0.” contradicts so dire a warning. (2005). and chemical analyses of ice cores To adjust for the confounding effect of the that covered time periods ranging from a few years to variable atmospheric mass above Antarctica. Velicogna and Wahr utilized European Centre for As a result of this effort..” Nevertheless. and Turner et al. Velicogna adequate resources for research.” Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Finally.” so they “estimate the 196 . solutions “do not reveal whether a gravity variation Frezzotti et al. a change in atmospheric mass above 2000). (2000).” all of which mass loss came only 0. Given the degree of All of these estimates and adjustments are deficiency in our knowledge of the matter. but they acknowledge that grounded ice sheet (171 ± 3 mm per year) exceeds “there are errors in those fields.4 ± 0. ice sheet mass decreased significantly.” In fact. Velicogna and Wahr (2006) used significant ice mass trend does not appear until the measurements of time-variable gravity from the PGR contribution is removed. their own analysis using two ice history models.2 mm/year global sea level over a recent nine-year period to be of global sea-level rise. as well as highly dependent perhaps as likely as not that a continuation of the upon various models. (2004).” Obviously. Velicogna and Wahr planet’s recovery from the relative cold of the Little acknowledge that “the PGR contribution is much Ice Age will lead to a buildup of polar ice. according to them. (1999). they and Wahr say “there are two important sources of claim that “if emissions of the greenhouse gases are error in PGR estimates: the ice history and Earth’s not reduced while uncertainties are being resolved. van den Broeke et al. In a contemporaneous study.” bomb horizons. And they are forced to admit “a mass losses.. van de Berg et al.” where the many real-world observations Ocean (ECCO) general circulation model.” To deal with this problem. at a rate of 152 3 who determined Antarctica’s contribution to mean ± 80 km /year of ice.4 mm/year calculated by Velicogna and Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance was 0 ± 56 Wahr. or post-glacial rebound (PGR: the Observations were derived by a number of different viscoelastic response of the solid Earth to glacial measurement techniques. it is convoluted and complex. equivalent to 0. (1999). (2004). viscosity profile. (2002). The two researchers concluded that “the mass balance are the findings of Zwally et al. (1999. (2004). and from a regional atmospheric climate model for the ocean mass variability. Velicogna and Wahr admit there is “geophysical (2006) compared results of model-simulated Antarctic contamination .” including “continental hydrology .Climate Change Reconsidered    secular component of those errors by finding monthly Oppenheimer and Alley describe this list of differences between meteorological fields from deficiencies in our knowledge of things related to the ECMWF and from the National Centers for WAIS as “gaping holes in our understanding” that Environmental Prediction. caused by signals outside surface mass balance (SMB)—which they derived Antarctica. Velicogna and Wahr’s study covered less satellites to determine mass variations of the Antarctic than a three-year period.” “will not be closed unless governments provide With respect to post-glacial rebound. van de Berg et al.08 mm/year compared to the five-times-greater from the WAIS. larger than the uncorrected GRACE trend. “is estimated lateral forcings—with “all available SMB using monthly. unloading over the last several thousand years). Kaspari et over Antarctica is caused by a change in snow and ice al. global water storage fields from the observations from Antarctica (N=1900)” in a Global Land Data Assimilation system. The following year also saw the publication of their calculations indicate that the PGR contribution another paper that mixed “gaping holes in our exceeds that of the signal being sought by nearly a understanding” with warnings of dire-sounding WAIS factor of five. Karlof et al.” employed in this process came from the studies of The two researchers note that the GRACE mass Vaughan et al. Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) determined that “the SMB integrated over the meteorological fields. on the surface. Smith et al.” while “the recalibration process that ultimately allowed them “to ocean contamination is estimated using a JPL version construct a best estimate of contemporary Antarctic of the Estimating Circulation and Climate of the SMB. including stake arrays. they there is a risk of making ice-sheet disintegration “estimate the PGR contribution and its uncertainties nearly inevitable. more than a century. Magand et al. Much more likely to be ice sheet for the 34 months between April 2002 and representative of the truth with respect to the WAIS’s August 2005..

and as both they and Ramillien et al.” Then. Wingham et al. horizontal snow drift transport. Sea Ice. the data. “covers 85% of the East Antarctic ice sheet and 51% of the West Antarctic ice sheet. In doing so. Even at that.” In describing their findings.” To calculate the ice sheet’s change in mass. to deal with a remaining systematic elevation bias in the model results. second by monitoring the changing geometry of the continent.4 mm/yr over the short-time scale.” In the same year.” Ramillien et al. they applied a set of empirical corrections (at 500-m intervals) that “largely eliminated” this final deviation from reality. as we noted in our discussion of the Velicogna and Wahr paper. while the West Antarctica ice sheet exhibits some changes likely to be related to climate change and is in negative balance.” which survey. (2007) used the LMDZ4 atmospheric general circulation model (Hourdin et al. to calculate the flux of solid precipitation (Ps). leading to a sea-level rise of 0. 2006) to simulate Antarctic climate for the periods 1981-2000 (to test the model’s ability to adequately simulate present conditions) and 20812100 (to see what the future might hold for the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its impact on global sea level). they report that “the current response of the Antarctica ice sheet is dominated by the background trend due to the retreat of the grounding line.” and when the researchers’ best estimates of regional differences in this parameter were used.08 mm/year Antarctic-induced mean sea-level rise calculated by Zwally et al. This work revealed.08 mm per year. nor in the size of ablation areas.” Van den Broeke et al.” which they describe in terms of centuries. according to Wingham et al. which results yielded a net ice loss for the entire continent of 40 km3/year (which translates to a mean sea-level rise of 0. “requires knowledge of the density at which the volume changes have occurred. and third by modeling both the dynamic and climatic evolution of the continent.” Remy and Frezzotti (2006) reviewed “the results given by three different ways of estimating mass balance.11 mm/year). they found that “even without snowdrift-related processes.” Krinner et al. the two researchers state that “the East Antarctica ice sheet is nowadays more or less in balance. sublimation from suspended (drifting/saltating) snow particles. first by measuring the difference between mass input and output.” In addition. which was derived from elevation changes based on nine years of satellite radar altimetry data obtained from the European Remote-sensing Satellites ERS-1 and -2. (2006) derived new estimates of the mass balances of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets from GRACE data for the period July 2002 to March 2005: a loss of 107 ± 23 km3/year for West Antarctica and a gain of 67 ± 28 km3/year for East Antarctica. they found that “overall. surface sublimation (SU). corrected for isostatic rebound. leading to a thickening of the ice sheet and thus a decrease in sea level. Precipitation. In addition. modeled (Ps-SU-ME) from RACMO2 strongly correlates with 1900 spatially weighted quality-controlled in situ SSMB observations. first. particularly on the Antarctic Peninsula and within East Antarctica. and surface melt (ME). (2005). and Sea Level    previous estimates by as much as 15%.” This net extraction of water from the global ocean.” concluding that “support or falsification of this result can only be found in new SMB observations from poorly covered high accumulation regions in coastal Antarctica. exceed the ice dynamic mass loss from West Antarctica.” which together comprise “72% of the grounded ice sheet. (2006) “analyzed 1. readily admit.Observations: Glaciers. show the ice sheet growing at 5 ± 1 mm per year.” given that the “model and observations are completely independent. they found that “72% of the Antarctic ice sheet is gaining 27 ± 29 Gt per year. as the latter researchers note in their closing paragraph. “the GRACE data time series is still very short and these results must be considered as preliminary since we cannot exclude that the apparent trends discussed in this study only reflect interannual fluctuations. the four Dutch researchers report that “no trend is found in any of the Antarctic SSMB components. that “the 197 .. This is of the same order of magnitude as the 0. However. with snowdrift-related processes calculated offline. And after analyzing all of the datadriven results for trends over the period 1980-2004.” In doing so. in their words.” which result they describe as “remarkable. (2006) employed a regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2). however.. occurs because “mass gains from accumulating snow.” with the largest differences between their results and those of others being “up to one meter per year higher in the coastal zones of East and West Antarctica. a sink of ocean mass sufficient to lower [their italics] global sea levels by 0. the GRACE approach is still laden with a host of potential errors. the precipitation increase will counterbalance this residual signal. they note that “later.2 x 108 European remote sensing satellite altimeter echoes to determine the changes in volume of the Antarctic ice sheet from 1992 to 2003.

C. of which the LMDZ4 model is Annals of Glaciology 39: 585-594... causing the continent’s ice sheet Maud Land.. reviews of newer publications as they become Annals of Glaciology 39: 351-358. 2005). S. Boucher. M.” where the extra moisture record of accumulation at Amundsenisen western Dronning falls as precipitation... Levy. Polcher.. Caubel. F. Dixon.471-12. Bony. Frezzotti. M. W..W. S. P. Udisti. Friedlingstein..F. M. R. Of that latter period a full century from now. Isaksson. available. M. Pourchet. Li.. Accumulation rates in Dronning Maud Land.. M. Wilhelms. 2005.. and mass wastage of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. including latitudinal and longitudinal transects in East Antarctica. and van de Wal.. Climate variability along Additional information on this topic. G. Annals of Glaciology 30: 27-34. P. J.. M. L..-G. Goktas. J.A. M. O.A. Flora. 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Radiocarbon constraints on ice sheet advance and retreat in the Weddell Sea. Fichefet.. Benshila. Dronning Maud Land. i. Traversi. F. Kaspari.. W. M...Y. the other major studies of the subject.. Hourdin..H. J.. S. and Miller. Climate Dynamics 28: 215-230. 26. N.... Nyman. Frezzotti.. as revealed by dielectric-profiling measurements of shallow firn cores. M. L. Simmonds. S. Braconnot.A.A. R. O. Mayewski. J. Stenni. P. Geology 27: 179-182. F... Braconnot. C. M. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 42: 2437-2445.A. Davis. C. van der Veen.. In fact. Musat.. C. Graf. Severi.. Winther.1029/2005GL023619.L. O. J. Gandolfi.A. Magand. Filiberti. H. Urbini. L. M. P. I... J. The LMDZ4 general circulation model: corresponds “to a sea-level decrease of 1.. L... O. M. Wilhelms. and Hamilton.. Miller. Minikin... Fairhead. Grandpeix. Accumulation studies on Amundsenisen. simulated present-day surface mass balance is skilful M.. 198 Brockmann. P. 2004.L. increases by 32 mm water equivalent per year. G. subject/w/waisbalance. I.. and Talandier. . and Fily. Kohler. M. Marti. Simulated Antarctic precipitation and suggest just the opposite. Journal of The results of this study—based on sea surface Geophysical Research 105: 12. Genthon. Fairhead. Oerter. would be reasonably accurate as well. M.C. ISSN 1288-1619. 1995-2000.. Cadule..

and Cooper. Ridout. Vaughn.J. Bindschadler (1998) analyzed the WAIS’s historical retreat in terms of its grounding line and ice front. Their results suggested that the Greenland ice sheet was much smaller during the last interglacial than previously thought.. Reijmer. Van de Berg. Antarctica: A study of the catchment using interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements and radar altimetry. R. Isaksson. Precipitation.3. Lombard.. Stenoien. 2006.3. M.. Arthern. Measurements of timevariable gravity show mass loss in Antarctica. East Antarctica. Wingham. M. Global and Planetary Change 53: 198-208. Although Bindschadler wrote that “the ice front now appears to be nearly stable. Li.R. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: 10. E. and Winter. concluding that the future contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to global sea level depends upon their past climate and dynamic histories as much as it does upon future climate. This work revealed that from the time of the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. R. Climate variables along a traverse line in Dronning Maud Land. J. Journal of Climate 12: 933946.. Giovinetto. Science 282: 456-458.. R. and Frezzotti. Sea Ice.7 millimeters per year. and Bentley. M. A.2 to 0. 2005.A.” there were indications that its grounding line was retreating at a rate that suggested complete dissolution of the WAIS in another 4.. Annals of Glaciology 35: 107-110.1029/JD000755.I.L. J.. J. and Reijmer. Cornejo. R.J. J.... I. van de Berg.D. Winther.J.000 years. Reeh determined there was a broad consensus that the effect of a 1°C climatic warming on the Antarctic ice sheet would be a fall in global sea level on the order of 0. Brenner. Shepherd.. B.. Pinglot. East Antarctica.. J. 2006. van Meijgaard. Reeh (1999) reviewed what was known about the mass balances of both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. van den Broeke.R. “a large negative mass balance for all of West Antarctica.000 to 7. Marshall.5. Wingham. 2006. Zwally.G. D. M.. Sciencexpress: 10. H. Antarctica ice sheet mass balance. in Bindschadler’s words. and article 2 of the UNFCCC. L.F.761-21. Reassessment of net surface mass balance in Antarctica. Mass changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and shelves and contributions to sea-level rise: 1992-2002. and Biancale.J.1123785. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 364: 1627-1635. A.779.J. Interannual variations of the mass balance of the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets from GRACE. Ivins. R. E. 1998. Beckley. Eiken. 1999. E. W. T.R. M.. D.R. Journal of Geophysical Research 107: 10. Bamber.” and there were no broad-based data that supported that scenario.1126science.J. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: 10. Giovinetto. global warming. Turner. Ramillien. D. J. we bring this body of research together in one place and add other research summaries.B. In this final section on the WAIS.L. Mulvaney..1029/2006JD007127. Cuffey and Marshall (2000) reevaluated previous model estimates of the Greenland ice sheet’s contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial. C.J.P.. The following year. and Alley. 2000. G. and Sea Level    Oppenheimer. M. A. Van den Broeke. Lachlan-Cope. M. J.. 2006. D. With respect to potential climate change.R. with melting of 199 . Llubes. Comptes Rendus Geoscience 338: 1084-1097. T. van Ommen. G. Reassessment of the Antarctic surface mass balance using calibrated output of a regional atmospheric climate model.. and Shum. Such a retreat was calculated to result in a sustained sea-level rise of 8-13 cm per century. However. M.G. H.. C. Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. Smith. even the smallest of these rates-of-rise would require. W. Van den Broeke.D.C.. G. A.J. Climatic Change 68: 257-267. Remy... Saba. Pine Island Glacier. M. J. M.. Antarctic elevation change from 1992 to 1996. Ice sheets. E. which resulted in an expanding Ross Ice Shelf.. C. Morris. T.. L. the retreat of the ice sheet’s grounding line had been faster than that of its ice front. C. and Marshall.. Muir. A. West Antarctic Ice Sheet and Sea Level Many of the studies of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) cited in the previous sections of this report address its past and future effects on sea level. and Yi.. and Wahr. A year later. E. 2002. Journal of Glaciology 51: 509-527. V.A.. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 21.H. Karlof.K.J.. 2006.. 1999. Scharroo.. Velicogna. and Morgan. 2002..1029/2005JD006495. based on a recalibration of oxygen-isotope-derived temperatures from central Greenland ice cores. Spatial variability of Antarctic Peninsula net surface mass balance. and Conrads.B. 4.-G.T. and van Meijgaard. Distribution of oxygen isotope ratios and snow accumulation rates in Wilhelm II Land. 2005. F.M. Identification of Antarctic ablation areas using a regional atmospheric climate model. Journal of Glaciology 45: 295-302. Cazenave. Remy.Observations: Glaciers. Russell. W. F. A. A. 2006.

future might hold for the mass balance of the Ramillien et al. Wingham et al. and melting and Gt per year. Their review of the subject led according to Wingham et al. occurs because “mass them to conclude that we simply do not know if these gains from accumulating snow. which compares poorly with the findings of simulate Antarctic climate for the periods 1981-2000 Zwally et al. and so challenges the Velicogna and Wahr analysis. exceed the ice dynamic mass loss from West One year later. (2005). the The many estimates and adjustments used by precipitation increase will counterbalance this Velicogna and Wahr to reach this conclusion were residual signal.” all of which mass loss came from the line. They determined that “the simulated Antarctic West Antarctic ice sheets for the period July 2002 to surface mass balance increases by 32 mm water March 2005.” adjustment for post-glacial rebound alone exceeded Krinner et al.” with respect to both the West Antarctic and This net extraction of water from the global ocean. this finding suggests preliminary since we cannot exclude that the apparent that “high sea levels during the last interglacial should trends discussed in this study only reflect interannual not be interpreted as evidence for extensive melting fluctuations.2 mm per year by the end of the for East Antarctica.” That caveat also applies to the of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. the study covers less than a three-year general circulation model of Hourdin et al. The two modeling both the dynamic and climatic evolution of researchers concluded that “the ice sheet mass the continent. leading to a thickening of the ice sheet described in Section 4.” which would in turn “lead to a loss for the entire continent of only 40 km3/year cumulated sea-level decrease of about 6 cm. used the LMDZ4 atmospheric Moreover. hypothesis that the West Antarctic is particularly About the same time.” which they describe in terms of Ice Sheet mass balance was 0 ± 56 km /year. Greenland Ice Sheets. centuries. (2006) also used GRACE data to Antarctic Ice Sheet and its impact on global sea derive estimates of the mass balances of the East and level).” to a different view of the issue when Velicogna and Remy and Frezzotti (2006) reviewed “the results Wahr (2006) used measurements of time-variable given by three different ways of estimating mass gravity from the Gravity Recovery and Climate balance.08 mm per year.. (2007). at a rate of 152 ± 80 km3/year of the Antarctica ice sheet is dominated by the of ice. equivalent to 0. who determined Antarctica’s (to test the model’s ability to adequately simulate contribution to mean global sea level over a recent present conditions) and 2081-2100 (to see what the nine-year period to be only 0. first by measuring the difference between Experiment (GRACE) satellites to determine mass mass input and output. they note that “later.2 mm/year of global seabackground trend due to the retreat of the grounding level rise. since they calculated that the East Antarctic 3 short-time scale. as opposed to the 152 km3/year ice loss increase “leads to an increased moisture transport calculated by Velicogna and Wahr (which translates towards the interior of the continent because of the to a nearly four times larger mean sea-level rise of 200 .3.3. leading to a sea-level rise of 0. Section 5. the world was exposed Antarctica.” They report that “the current response decreased significantly. Ramillien et al.5.40 mm/year).” This (which translates to a mean sea-level rise of 0.2. particularly on the ice sheets had made a significant contribution to seaAntarctic Peninsula and within East Antarctica. the and thus a decrease in sea level.” analyzed European remote sensing satellite altimeter Oppenheimer and Alley (2005) discussed “the echoes to determine the changes in volume of the degree to which warming can affect the rate of ice Antarctic ice sheet from 1992 to 2003. For example. They found loss by altering the mass balance between that “72% of the Antarctic ice sheet is gaining 27 ± 29 precipitation rates on the one hand. (2006) to period.4 mm/yr over the WAIS.” which corresponds “to a seafor West Antarctica and a gain of 67 ± 28 km3/year level decrease of 1. level rise over the past several decades. a sink of ocean mass sufficient to lower ice discharge to the ocean through ice streams on the [their italics] global sea levels by 0. However. obtaining a loss of 107 ± 23 km3/year equivalent per year. (2006) sensitive to climate change. note in their closing the ice sheet contributing somewhere between four paragraph. short and these results must be considered as According to Hvidberg (2000).6. and third by between April 2002 and August 2005.4 ± 0. however. in a study summarized in the signal being sought by nearly a factor of five. which results yielded a net ice twenty-first century.. “the GRACE data time series is still very and five-and-a-half meters to sea-level rise.Climate Change Reconsidered    0.3.08 mm/year.” other.11 result occurs because the simulated temperature mm/year). second by monitoring the variations of the Antarctic ice sheet for the 34 months changing geometry of the continent. subject/w/waissealevel.. Consider the report of Ekstrom et al. L. Geophysical Research Letters 32: 10.1126science. Musat.R. Musat. D. Hvidberg. L. they determined that (1) all of the best-recorded quakes were 201 .5.. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 364: 1627-1635..Observations: Glaciers.. N. the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet could well compensate for any long-term wastage of the Greenland Ice Sheet that might occur. G. and Fairhead. Fairhead. global warming.. F. Genthon. Kerr. 2006.. Cuffey. In the case of the latter possibility. Remy. wherein the unnerving phenomena were attributed to anthropogenic-induced global warming.. Simulated Antarctic precipitation and surface mass balance at the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. ISSN 1288-1619. A.. M. Ramillien. J.C. and accelerating sea-level rise (Bindschadler... several commentaries heralded accelerating discharges of glacial ice from Greenland and Antarctica.S. Greenland Ice Cap Studies of the growth and decay of polar ice sheets are of great importance because of the relationships of these phenomena to global warming and the impacts they can have on sea level. and Alley. F. Lombard. Caubel. G..J. M. J. M. and Talandier. I. Benshila. Climate Dynamics 27: 787-813.. F.. Braconnot. 2005. Braconnot. A. In the March 24. When Greenland ice melts. Velicogna. R.L.. can be found at http://www. Foujols. Remy. 2006. Nature 404: 551-552. References Bindschadler... 2006.. Joughin.. Sciencexpress: 10. Li. Le Van. 2006. There has been very little change in global sea level due to wastage of the WAIS over the past few decades. D. 2007. S. M. J. Ivins. Boucher.Y. 4. Bellier.A. F. 2006.B. Contrasts in the effects on climate of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols between the 20th and the 21st century.. rapid. Journal of Glaciology 51: 509-527. Fairhead. C. M. K. and article 2 of the UNFCCC. Filiberti. Dufresne. O. Friedlingstein.G. de NobletDucoudre. M.. Measurements of timevariable gravity show mass loss in Antarctica.A.L. Friedlingstein. P. 2006).. and Marshall. Cadule. S. 2006. 2006. and Biancale.A.. The new IPSL climate system model: IPSL-CM4. Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. 26. Llubes. Climatic Change 68: 257-267. Otto-Bliesner et al. 2005.php. Krinner.co2science. H. N. by greater inland snowfall. Additional information on this topic. Ice sheets. I... Mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet: Can modern observation methods reduce the uncertainty? Geografiska Annaler 81A: 735-742. Dufresne. Simmonds.1123785. J.Y. Dufresne. we review a number of such studies that pertain to the Greenland Ice Sheet. J. S. Grandpeix.A. A. P.. Codron. M. Global and Planetary Change 53: 198-208.. Muir... P.. Shepherd. Bony. Levy. Li.B. Nature 404: 591-594.M. Climate Dynamics 28: 215-230. J.. Bony. IPSL. Cazenave. G.. J. Fichefet.. Quaas. Comptes Rendus Geoscience 338: 1084-1097...J. I. 2006 issue of Science. P.J.. I... Grandpeix. G. Brenner. or more than countered. C. Sea Ice. G.. Denvil. Hourdin. Wingham. who studied “glacial earthquakes” caused by sudden sliding motions of glaciers on Greenland. R. T. Zwally.. Hourdin. 1999. 2000. J. G. S. Mass changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and shelves and contributions to sea-level rise: 1992-2002. 1998. Future of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. F. P. Interannual variations of the mass balance of the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets from GRACE.. 2006. Marti. O. What wastage might occur along the coastal area of the ice sheet over the long term would likely be countered. causing the continent’s ice sheet to grow..L. and there will probably be little change in both the near and far future. E. Substantial contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial from the Greenland ice sheet. Beckley. Oppenheimer.. and Sea Level    higher moisture holding capacity of warmer air.. Antarctica ice sheet mass balance. O. Brockmann. J. Krinner. Krinner. Giovinetto.. Z. J. C.. and Dufresne...-L. R. Polcher. and Lott. 2005. Reeh. 2005. and Frezzotti. 2006). Kennedy and Hanson.4. Madec. F.. M. 2006. A. Denvil. Overpeck et al. R. A.. S. This distressing news was based largely on three reports published in the same issue (Ekstrom et al. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. L. Note du Pole de Modelisation n... C.1029/2005GL023619. and Yi. P. A.J. In this section. and Wahr. Precipitation. Filiberti.L.. Magand..X. Saba.” where the extra moisture falls as precipitation. J. Science 282: 428-429. 2006. Over the period from January 1993 to October 2005. Cornejo... and Marshall. 2000.. J. The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parameterized physics with emphasis on tropical convection.. while dispensing dire warnings of an imminent large. H.

2005. (2005) found that “below 1500 meters. according of Ekstrom et al.2 cm/year is found in the vast which histories suggest that it was warmer in this interior areas above 1500 meters. (2005) found that although “the saying “I think it is very hard not to associate this Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins.” Consequently.” analyses suggest. temperature anomalies of 30 grid-boxes from the In an attempt to downplay the significance of updated dataset of Jones by Przybylak (2000) found these inconvenient findings. their confirmation observed in the 19th century. et al.” which sentiment appears to be “growing inland with a small overall mass gain. the determine whether it is an anthropogenic effect or Greenland Ice Sheet would appear to have natural variability. twice as many events have been detected as in and when the mass balance of the entire Greenland any year before 2002. in qualitative agreement with reported coastal Greenland stations located within the same thinning in the ice-sheet margins. or ~54 cm recent warming in Greenland “is too short to when corrected for isostatic uplift.Climate Change Reconsidered    1920s.” Spatially averaged region back in the 1930s than it was over the period over the bulk of the ice sheet.” and (3) “to date in inland ice accumulation derived from precipitation. 2006 quoted Ekstrom as Zwally et al.4 ± Based on these data. which Zwally A study based on mean monthly temperatures of et al.” because. found to be producing a 0. for the 11-year period 1992-2003. (2007) provides temperatures there have yet to rise either as fast or as further evidence that the IPCC’s view of melting sea high as they did during the great warming of the ice is wrong. quite a different result was obtained than in glacial activity on Greenland.” (2) “even in the 1950s the says Zwally’s belief is “based on his gut feeling about temperature was higher than in the last 10 years. the other half being of events is seen starting in 2002.. “the temperature predictions produced present and immediate future. likely host to a net accumulation of ice. to the latter researchers. It is associated with major outlet glaciers on the east and also important to recognize the fact that coastal west coasts of Greenland between approximately 65 glacial discharge represents only half of the equation and 76°N latitude. Unwilling to join that conclusion.2 cm/year.e.01 mm/year 37 Arctic and seven sub-Arctic stations and decline in sea-level. To the contrary. was Joughin.” but that “an latitude range as the sites of the glacial earthquakes.” Gut “since the mid-1970s. Why? Kerr clearly in the 1930s. to do with anthropogenic-induced global warming. the net result. Clayton Sandell of that suggested by the seven Science papers.9 presented histories of summer temperature at four cm/year. the annual temperature shows feelings are a poor substitute for comprehensive realno clear trend.” ice sheet was recently assessed via satellite radar With respect to the reason for the recent increase altimetry. For the models for the enhanced greenhouse effect. it is clear that the recent upswing likely still positive).” (3) the most recent radar and laser observations. and even if Zwally’s intestines Greenland in the last 10-20 years is similar to that are ultimately found to be correct. the however. it was more in the discussion that follows. We would have that the observed variations in air temperature in the to wait and see how long the mass losses prevailed in real Arctic are in many aspects not consistent with the order to assess their significance within the context of projected climatic changes computed by climatic the CO2-induced global warming debate.” In shared by almost all of the authors of the seven fact. The five researchers from the School of 202 . there has been no net loss of in glacial activity on Greenland likely has had nothing mass from the Greenland Ice Sheet. and for which data are available.03 ± 0. Kerr quoted Zwally as (1) “in the Arctic. was a mean increase of 5. increase of 6.” These findings led him would only demonstrate just how rapidly the to conclude that the meteorological record “shows Greenland environment can change. ABC News on March 23. we have no by numerical climate models significantly differ from choice but to stick with what existent data and those actually observed. Joughin concluded that the 0. who in the very same issue elevation-change rate is [a negative] 2.0 ± 0. which was clearly a natural phenomenon. i. that cumulatively since the In light of these several other studies of realearly 1990s and conservatively (since the balance is world observations.” a position that is supported by experienced no net loss of mass over the last decade many scientists cited previously in this chapter.” and (4) “the level of temperature in world measurements. as The recent study by Eldrett et al. “or ~60 cm over 11 years.4 ± 0. the highest temperatures since the saying he believes that “right now” the Greenland Ice beginning of instrumental observation occurred Sheet is experiencing a net loss of mass.’s analysis. in his words. Johannessen Science articles. therefore. (2) “a clear increase in the number relating to sea-level change.” it is with global warming.

Krabill et al. together with previously reported data from southern Greenland. state they are left with changes in ice dynamics as the most likely cause of the hypothetical ice sheet thinning. flight lines were few and far between.” In doing so. including macroscopic dropstones.” It would seem logical to admit this study resolves almost nothing about the mass balance of the coastal regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet and nothing about the subject of global warming and its 203 . it could not be due to global or regional warming. it is difficult to know what estimates derived from interpolations based on calculations of a hypothetical thinning rate mean. They note that they do not have a “satisfactory explanation” for the “widespread thinning at elevations below 2000 m. they interpolated between this calculated coastal thinning rate and the nearest observed elevation changes to obtain their final answer: a total net reduction in ice volume of 51 km3/year. at a time when global deep water temperatures and. Continuing.” which “is about 20 million years earlier than previously documented. to quote Eldrett et al. in late Eocene to early Oligocene sediments from the Norwegian-Greenland Sea that were deposited between about 38 and 30 million years ago. their data “provide the first stratigraphically extensive evidence for the existence of continental ice in the Northern Hemisphere during the Palaeogene. the entire region exhibited a net thickening of 5 ± 5 mm/year. Precipitation.” Then. while atmospheric CO2 concentrations were as much as four times greater than they are today. We question their significance. by extension. Unfortunately. which averaged 4 mm/year in the south and 5 mm/year in the north. The word used by Krabill et al. and Sea Level    Ocean and Earth Science of the National Oceanography Centre of the University of Southampton in the UK report they “have generated a new stratigraphy for three key Deep Sea Drilling Project/Ocean Drilling Program sites by calibrating dinocyst events to the geomagnetic polarity timescale.” How much higher? According to graphs the researchers present. rather than sea ice. as Eldrett et al. were much warmer. and these phenomena nearly balanced each other.. the average thickening rate decreased to practically nothing. and the researchers themselves do the same. is that “palaeoclimate model experiments generate substantial ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere for the Eocene only in runs where carbon dioxide levels are lower (approaching the pre-anthropogenic level) than suggested by proxy records.” After discussing some other factors that could be involved. and point to East Greenland as the likely source. we calculated a hypothetical thinning rate on the basis of the coastal positive degree day anomalies. The problem these observations provide for those who hold to the view that global warming will melt the Greenland Ice Sheet. to describe the net balance was “zero. while in the north there was a net thickening of 14 ± 7 mm/year. is that it indicates the presence of glacial ice on Greenland “at a time when temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were substantially higher. But they admit in their final sentence that “we have no evidence for such changes. ocean bottom-water temperatures were 5-8°C warmer.000 meters they found areas of both thinning and thickening.” What is particularly interesting about this finding. The authors further note that even if the thinning was real. thinning was found to predominate along approximately 70 percent of the coast.Observations: Glaciers. Here.” as the researchers say. describe it. so few and far between. but in correcting for bedrock uplift. “Regardless. (2000) used data obtained from aircraft laser-altimeter surveys over northern Greenland in 1994 and 1999. so that in the south there was a net thinning of 11 ± 7 mm/year. Sea Ice.” Therefore—and also “by extension”—we now have evidence of a much warmer period of time that failed to melt the Greenland Ice Sheet. to evaluate the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. however. since Greenland temperature records indicate “the 1980s and early 1990s were about half a degree cooler than the 96year mean. and we cannot explain why they should apply to many glaciers in different parts of Greenland. Altogether. in fact. that the researchers said that “in order to extend our estimates to the edge of the ice sheet in areas not bounded by our surveys. Above an elevation of 2.” which records indicate atmospheric CO2 concentrations fully two to seven times greater than the pre-anthropogenic level during the time of the newly detected ice sheets.” They further report that their data “indicate sediment rafting by glacial ice.” which suggests that the reason this phenomenon is unexplainable is that it may not be real. they say their detailed core observations revealed evidence for “extensive icerafted debris. Krabill et al.” and they conclude that their data thus suggest “the existence of (at least) isolated glaciers on Greenland about 20 million years earlier than previously documented. surface water temperatures at high latitude.” At lower elevations.

the temperature data concentrating on the results of 14 satellite-based “show that a warming trend occurred in the Nuuk estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that fjord during the first 50 years of the 1900s. they is a rise of 0. Greenland would appear to have Nuuk fjord. This analysis of all pertinent regional Consequently. (2005). and measurements of the ice sheets’ trend there was also what they describe as “a changing gravitational attraction—and they have remarkable increase in the number of snowfall days yielded a diversity of values. July decade. (2007) report that the two acceleration. we have no In conclusion.” When actual measurements of the ice In a preliminary step required to better understand sheet via satellite radar altimetry are employed. both the annual mean and the average experienced no ice sheet mass deficit in the past temperature of the three summer months (June. due to Greenland and Antarctica) to global sea-level change the ablation-temperature relations. In their concluding discussion.” in less than a year in 2004—causing the IPCC to Rignot and Kanagaratnam (2005) used satellite claim the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding much radar interferometry observations of Greenland to more rapidly to global warming than anyone had ever detect what they described as “widespread glacier expected—Howat et al. as in West Greenland.” Calculating that this phenomenon had glaciers’ rates of mass loss “decreased in 2006 to near led to a doubling of the ice sheet mass deficit in the the previous rates. In addition. Hanna and Cappelen. a the relationship of glacier dynamics to climate change decidedly different perspective is obtained. Taurisano et al. (2005). These studies have by a cooling over the second part of the century. which we cited earlier.Climate Change Reconsidered    al. making it respect to the mass balance of Greenland’s Ice Sheet unlikely that its frozen water will be released to the and what they say it implies about sea level are world’s oceans. went on to claim that “as more glaciers accelerate . (2005) and the temperature trends of the Nuuk fjord area during Johannessen et al. a comparable increase in words. runoff. on measurements for this evaluation.” With respect to these contentions. wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets.” As they describe it. and contrary to the claim of Rignot and data led them to conclude that “at all stations in the Kanagaratnam. they report that “not only level-rise-equivalent of 1.” term trends. the part of the Northern problem with what the two researchers have observed Hemisphere that holds the lion’s share of the with respect to Greenland’s glaciers.35 millimeters per year. therefore. they how mass-balance estimates are evaluated. ranging from a sea(+59 days). 2003). (2004) described indicated by the work of Zwally et al. particularly when extrapolating into the future.” And these observations.. the contribution of Greenland to sea-level rise will because short-term spikes could yield erroneous longcontinue to increase.” Coincident with this cooling changes. One number of snowfall days over much of Greenland has reason for this discrepancy is that instead of relying increased so dramatically over the same time period. when been of three major types—standard mass budget the average annual temperatures decreased by analyses. precipitation. The two researchers by Hannna and Cappelen (2002). the past century.” What is more. for although two of Greenland’s studied “reveal a pattern which is common to most largest outlet glaciers doubled their rates of mass loss other stations in Greenland. remark that the temperature data they too large an estimate. and surface phenomenon.0 mm/year to a sea-leveldid the cooling affect the winter months. but also the summer conclude that the current “best estimate” of the mean. altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume approximately 1. who used meteorological models “to effect or non-effect upon this hypothetical retrieve annual accumulation. and August) exhibit a pattern in agreement with the Shepherd and Wingham (2007) reviewed what is trends observed at other stations in south and west known about sea-level contributions arising from Greenland (Humlum 1999. Rignot and it is possible that enhanced accumulation of snow on Kanagaratnam relied on the calculations of Hanna et 204 .. Even this unimpressive sea-level increase may be Taurisano et al. and at a very significant rate.15 mm/year.5°C. mass balance. which over a report there was no significant trend in annual century amounts to only 35 millimeters. in their past decade and. followed have been derived since 1998. but we feel hemisphere’s ice has been cooling for the past halfcompelled to note that what they have calculated with century. because the annual contradicted by more inclusive real-world data.” noting that “the summer cooling is rather contribution of polar ice wastage (from both important information for glaciological studies.” Finally. as suggested fall-equivalent of 0. “suggest that special care must be taken in Greenland’s contribution to rising sea levels.

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that it is the sun’s influence that is responsible for most climate change during the past century and beyond. precipitation. we do 207 not invent a measure of our confidence in this theory. Monsoons 5. Temperature 5. Unlike the IPCC. Solar Variability and Climate Cycles 5. Floods 5.4).” which is an order of magnitude smaller than their estimated net anthropogenic forcing of +1. We begin with a discussion of cosmic rays. In Chapters 3 and 4 we showed that observations do not confirm the temperatures and weather trends the IPCC said should exist if its theory were true. 10).8. Streamflow    Introduction The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations [italics in the original]” (IPCC.4. . Irradiance 5. Rather. and therefore how wrong it is to assume that human activity is responsible for any variability in the climate that we cannot explain by pointing to already known forcings or feedbacks.2. According to the IPCC.  5   Solar Variability and Climate Cycles   5. Precipitation 5. In the spirit of genuine scientific inquiry. followed by research on irradiance.06 to +0. But as we demonstrated in Chapter 1. p.1. Droughts 5. 3. play a larger role in regulating the earth’s temperature.7. and then survey the evidence linking solar variability to climate phenomena both ancient and recent.5. mediated by cosmic ray fluxes and changes in global cloud cover. monsoons. However.30] W m–2.3. The IPCC’s authors even tell us they have decided there is a better-than-90-percent probability that their shared opinion is true. droughts. 2007-I. “changes in solar irradiance since 1750 are estimated to cause a radiative forcing of +0. the general circulation models upon which the IPCC rests its case are notoriously unreliable. we make the case for this alternative theory to demonstrate how much we don’t know about earth’s climate.12 [+0. Cosmic Rays 5. In Chapter 2 we documented feedback factors and forcings that the IPCC clearly overlooked. in contrast to the IPCC’s agenda-driven focus on making its case against GHG. floods. the studies summarized in this chapter suggest the IPCC has got it backwards. and other climate features than any past or expected human activities. we examine some research that is truly on the frontiers of climate research today. In this chapter we set out evidence in favor of an alternative theory of climate change that holds that variations in the sun’s output and magnetic field.6. including projected increases in GHG emissions. nor do we confuse it with a forecast of future weather patterns.66 W m–2 from CO2 over the same time period (pp.

” In addition. in a miniultra-small clusters of sulfuric acid and water starburst 2400-2000 million years ago. during which time the solar system experienced that involve galactic cosmic rays. four passages through the spiral arms of the Milky We begin with the review paper of Svensmark Way galaxy. in strength. Solomon. 2003) and characteristics. UK. (2001).” Chen. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science continuing on through the twentieth century. the cosmic ray flux would have been condensation nuclei. which leads to more solar radiation being Several studies conducted over the past 10 years absorbed by the surface of the earth. Cambridge. In light of these many diverse periods of greater solar magnetic activity. He then discusses how. of which the most recent were the Medieval Warm Period (roughly AD 900-1300) and The study of extraterrestrial climatic forcing factors is the Modern Warm Period (since 1900). 1941).B.” and IPCC..41 over the period with earth’s temperature history over the same time 1964-1996. as magnetic flux leaving the sun since 1868. H. Svensmark concludes that “stellar shielding of the earth occurs. there were many icy intervals like the Little Ice Age” that “alternated with 5.. who crossed the galactic midplane. (Eds. when Svensmark says References “sunspots were extremely scarce and the solar magnetic field was exceptionally weak. in this summary and relative cosmic ray flux over the last 550 million we review the findings of the subset of those studies years. “ever-changing galactic environments and starresulting in fewer and less reflective low-level clouds formation rates.) Cambridge University Press. Z. We Svensmark provides support for key elements of start with the work of Lockwood et al. while surrogate measurements of the period.000 years virtually every centennial time-scale of Milankovitch (1920. Qin. resulting in less cosmic winds and magnetism are crucial factors in the origin rays penetrating to the lower atmosphere. and Svensmark cites the work of Bond et al. D. Manning.” And as primarily a study of phenomena related to the sun.. Contributi