Bond Portfolio Management Strategies

Stock market investors will choose a particular risk level on the SML and invest at this point, choosing only those securities that lie on the SML (or above it). Stock investors have different levels of risk/return requirements Bond investors will do the same thing. A young, aggressive bond investor may choose a high risk bond & is willing to risk his principal investment. A retiree may not be willing to take a risky bond investment and may, instead invest in conservative bonds. Individual investors choose to invest in bonds. Also, pension plans, banks, insurance companies and other institutions invest in bonds. At any rate, all investors are interested in a bond investment strategy. There are three major types of strategies: 1. passive portfolio management strategies 2. active portfolio management strategies 3. matched-funding strategies In the 1950s the bond market was considered a safe, conservative investment. At that time a buy-and-hold strategy was sufficient. However, times changed, in the 1960s inflation increased, and interest rates became more volatile. Thus, with more volatile interest rates, there was a great amount of profit potential with bonds. Also, in the 1970s the Macauley duration measure was re-discovered. Not all investors viewed the rise in interest rate volatility as a good thing. The pension fund and insurance companies that invest in bond found their job much more difficult. Thus, strategies based on duration were developed to aid pension fund managers to match their liabilities with properly constructed bond portfolios. Passive Bond Portfolio Strategies There are two major passive strategies:
 

buy-and-hold indexing

Buy-and-hold Strategy This strategy simply involves buying a bond and holding it until maturity. Bond investors would examine such factors as quality ratings, coupon levels, terms to maturity, call features and sinking funds. These investors do not trade actively to earn returns, rather they look for bonds with maturities or durations that match their investment horizon.

Plus. if you modify this too much it turns into an active strategy. Vehicles and Costs: Only default-free or very high quality securities should be held. Vehicles and Costs: The fixed income market is broader (in terms of security types) than the equity market. When choosing the indexing option. such as the Shearson Lehman Hutton Government/Corporate Bond Index. Indexing Indexing involves attempting to build a portfolio that will match the performance of a selected bond portfolio index. those investors seeking to lock in a rate of return may choose a zero-coupon bond--good strategy for college tuition or retirement. Also. and probably should not be included in the buyand-hold strategy. the buy-and-hold strategy will do well.000 securities. Merrill Lynch Index. The buy-and-hold strategy minimizes transaction costs and. there will be transaction costs associated with (1) purchasing the issues used to construct the index. a compromise must be made when selected among different indexes. even though the Shearson Lehman Hutton Corporate Bond Index has over 4. if interest rates are currently high and are expected to remain so for an extended period of time. the strategy of buying every bond in a market index according to its weight in the index is not a practical one. those securities that are callable by firm (allows the issuer to buy back the bond at a particular price and time) or putable by holder (allows bondholder to sell the bond to issuer at a specified price and time) will introduce alterations in the firm's cash flows. Also. or. We may choose to emulate a narrower bond index. bond portfolio management cannot be considered entirely passive. but they still actively look for opportunities to trade into more desirable positions. it only represents high quality corporate bond issues. etc. Agency issues typically provide high quality bonds at a higher return than Treasury securities. if implemented astutely. and (2) reinvesting cash payments from coupon and . callability affects the attractiveness of an issue. etc. you may want to develop a portfolio in which coupon payments are structured (and principal repayments). Thus. [However. Techniques. Techniques. Also. Also. can be highly productive. For example. it still involves a great deal of work.] While the buy-and-hold strategy is a passive strategy. Alternative Vehicles: We may choose to randomly select bonds from the universe of bonds. This portfolio manager is judged on his ability to track the index. Also. we may choose the stratified approach (segmenting the index into components from which individual securities are chosen). a relevant subset is possible.There is also a modified buy-and-hold strategy in which investors buy bonds with the intention of holding them until maturity. However.

The next step is to select the securities for your portfolio. the manager hops to outperform the buy-and-hold policy by using acumen.principal repayments. and (3) rebalancing of portfolio if the composition of your target index changes. Stratified Approach: Consists of analyzing the index to determine various stratification levels (what portion of securities that make up index are Treasury. or longer duration. Longer maturity. of X years to maturity. Aaa Industrial. if a manager expects an increase in interest rates. skill. 4. Whereas full replication of the target index would work best. How many securities should you have in your portfolio if you use the random sampling approach? McEnally and Boardman (1979) have found that. etc. etc. etc. close replication is possible with perhaps 40 bonds (for the long term). portfolios will benefit the most from an interest rate decrease and vice versa. Baa Financial. These objectives can be obtained by altering the maturity or duration of their portfolios. There's no requirement as to which security is selected from each class. they would structure portfolio to have the lowest possible duration. 3. There are five major active bond portfolio management strategies: 1. The strategy is designed to preserve capital (lose as little as possible) when interest rates rise (and bond prices drop) and to receive as much capital appreciation as possible when interest rates drop (and bond prices rise). Interest Rate Anticipation This is the riskiest strategy because the investor must act on uncertain forecasts of future interest rates. this is impractical.). If you choose the stratified method. your performance will probably not mirror your target index. Interest rate anticipation Valuation analysis Credit analysis Yield spread analysis bond swaps In each strategy. 5. once an index is selected. . of X% coupon rate. Active Management Strategies These strategies require major adjustments to portfolios. Thus. at selection and at the rebalancing period (usually once a month) one security is chosen from each category (there could be 40 categories). trading to take advantage of interest rate fluctuations. 2. Typically.

[See p. as shown below: .The problem faced with this type of strategy is the risk of mis-estimating interest rate movements. 8-30] The scenario analysis leads us to further analysis. Thus. if you expect IR to drop. Analyze the individual bonds within your portfolio under each scenario and see how the returns are affected under each scenario. Relative Return Value Analysis: We can calculate the overall expected return for each bond in our scenario (expected return under each interest rate scenario weighted by the probability of that scenario occurring) and the current duration of each bond in our portfolio and graph the relationship. if this is your strategy. the timing as to when you expect the interest rate shift is important. How your bond will be affected by changes in interest rates can usually be directly related to the security's duration. "what if" interest rates rise/fall by this much over the next month/year/etc. Scenario Analysis: Say. Those bonds falling above a regression line (showing the general relationship) would be doing ok! Strategic Frontier Analysis: We can graph the bonds in our portfolio with the best case scenario (an interest rate decrease) on the vertical axis and the worst case scenario on the horizontal axis. you don't want to wait too late. Also. you should be concerned with:    direction of the change in interest rates the magnitude of the change across maturities. you should shift to high duration securities. You don't want to shift too early. because you may compromise some return. However. It is difficult (EXTREMELY) to predict (with accuracy) interest rate movements. Obviously. and the timing of the change.

however if the worst case happens they will be the worst performers. This also translates to those bonds whose expected YTM is lower than the current YTM. but perform poorly if the best case occurs. Those securities falling into Quadrant II are superior securities--they will perform well regardless of which scenario occurs. Based on your confidence in your analysis. This strategy requires lots of analysis (continuous evaluations) and lots of trading based on the analysis. Normally a few securities would fall into Quadrants II and IV.Those securities which fall into Quadrant I represent aggressive securities--if the best case happens. You should sell securities falling into Quadrant IV. you would buy undervalued bonds and sell overvalued bonds (or ignore them if they are not in your portfolio). Quadrant III represents defensive securities--they will do well under the worst case scenario. . with most falling into Quadrants I and III. they will do well. Valuation Analysis The portfolio manager looks for undervalued bonds--those bonds that have a computed value (according to the portfolio manager) higher than the current market price). Quadrant IV securities are inferior as they will perform poorly regardless of the scenario.

however. Various factors examined include financial ratios. Credit Analysis Credit analysis involves examining bond issuers to determine if any changes in the firm's default risk can be identified. or if there is any anticipation of a market upgrade. However. these yield spreads widen over time (during poor economic times the spread widens). let's say.. Many fixed-income investors complement the bond ratings . Also. then this would require more macro-oriented analysis. thus we can determine the default free characteristics of any other type of bond. Altman and Nammacher point out that the net return of junk bonds (average gross return minus losses from bonds that defaulted) has been superior to higher-rated debt [Of course. sector effect.Valuation Analysis: We can examine the term structure of pure discount bonds (zero coupon) and thus determine the value of US Treasuries. "Specifically. coupon effect. sinking fund attributes. the A category. individual bond issuers may experience difficulty in meeting their debt obligations. they're of higher risk. if there is some "event risk" (something affecting the financial stability of firm) missing from the analysis.] Other points to note: Even though the rating categories have not changed. Then we can attempt to determine the other factors that will affect bond yield by using multiple factor regression analysis (looking at things such as: quality rating. it reacts quickly. GNP. bond portfolio managers will have to involved themselves in detailed credit analysis to determine those bonds that will not default. we can determine the expected yield for the security (if the expected yield < current YTM then buy). This could be an isolated incident. Junk bonds have a wide spread over bonds rated BBB and higher. However.]. has lessened over time. First. For instance.) Using this factor analysis. To be successful in utilizing bond rating changes. Credit Analysis: The assessment of default risk. the average values of the financial ratios that determine whether bonds are included in the B or CCC rating classes have declined over time. there is some subjectivity in factor analysis. call provision." Thus. etc. if default risk is precipitated by adverse general business conditions. Default risk has both systematic and unsystematic elements. inflation. you must accurately predict when the bond rating change will occur and take action prior to the change. etc.. Rating changes are prompted by internal changes within the firm as well as external changes. Credit Analysis of High-Yield Junk Bonds. and can be diversified away (or eliminated by effective credit analysis). the quality of bonds today that fall into. We try to determine if the bond rating agencies are going to change the firm's rating. Many more downgradings occur during economic contractions [However from 19851990 downgradings increased substantially despite an economic expansion. The market does react to unexpected bond rating changes.

maximum. Brokerage firms maintain historical records of yield spreads and are able to conduct specialized analyses for clients. and they typically require constant monitoring and many transactions to achieve the intended goal. Matched-Funding Techniques The matched-funding techniques incorporates the passive buy-and-hold strategy and active management strategies. and the danger that overall changes in interest rates will dwarf these efforts. These techniques are meant to avoid or offset risk. and timely analyses and recommendations. Duff & Phelps. such as measurement of the historical average. If a spread were thought to be abnormally high. The manager tries to match specific liability obligations due at specific times to a portfolio of bonds in a way that minimizes the portfolio's exposure to interest rate risk (the uncertainty of returns due to possible changes in interest rates over time). comprehensive. the possibility of poor timing (how long will it take for the market to realize the abnormal spread). Potential drawbacks of this method include the need to make numerous trades. Changes in relative yields (or the spread) may occur due to:    altered perceptions of the creditworthiness of a sector of the market's sensitivity to default risk changes in the market's valuation of some attribute or characteristic of the securities in the sector (such as a zero coupon feature). prices and yields on lower investment grade bonds tend to move together (identifiable classes of securities are referred to as sectors). you need to know what the "normal" spread is. citing reasons such as: more accurate. or changes in supply/demand conditions. you would trade to take advantage of a return to a normal spread. and minimum spread among sectors. Moody's. Yield Spread Analysis A portfolio manager would monitor the yield relationships between various types of bonds and look for abnormalities. . For example. and you need the liquidity to make trades quickly to take advantage of temporary spread abnormalities. Spread Analysis: Involves anticipating changes in sectoral relationships. The objective is to invest in the sector or sectors that will display the strongest relative price movements. S&P's) with their own credit analysis.providing by bond agencies (Fitch's. Thus.

your investment horizon. Components of Interest Rate Risk: One of the major problems faced by bond portfolio managers is having the needed amount of funds at a specific date (the ending wealth requirement) -. many investors wanted techniques that would help them match future liability streams with bond portfolios that would provide the required funds without having to worry about where interest rates would be at the time. in reality. sinking funds. Developed by Fisher and Weil in 1971. If interest rates never changed during your investment horizon. you would payout your pension money). you could reinvest your coupon payments at the stable interest rate and earn the promised YTM. Construct a bond portfolio with a stream of payments. will require smaller sums of initial funds to meet future goals. etc. This is an entirely passive portfolio that requires no reinvestment (zero coupon bonds pay no cash coupon payment and matures the day you need the funds. individual retirement planning. bond prices could be down (substantially below the needed amount). These investors needed $x at x date. etc. college education. and maturing principal payments to exactly match specific liability schedule.Many of these techniques were developed in the 1980s (due to highly volatile interest rates) for pension funds (known obligations). However. the yield curve is not flat and interest rates do change. Dedicated Portfolios Pure Cash-matched dedicated portfolio: most conservative method. at the needed date. Portfolio Immunization Attempts to enable one to "lock-in" going interest rates and not have to worry about interest rate shifts. Technically it is difficult to determine exactly WHEN your cash flow payouts will be due. With interest rates that were highly volatile. If interest rates . Consequently. Thus. This requires estimating your future obligations (pension fund payouts.) You could choose zero-coupon bonds that had maturity dates exactly when you needed the funds. so as soon as you receive your maturity payment. investors face interest rate risk. Therefore. college tuition. Coupon reinvestment risk: The promised YTM assumes that all coupon payments are reinvested at the promised YTM. so it is best to apply a somewhat conservative approach. Dedicated Cash-matched portfolio with reinvestment: Assumes that cash flows don't always come when needed (may come earlier) and will be reinvested. There are two components of interest rate risk:   Price risk: if interest rates change before the end of your investment horizon and the bond is sold prior to maturity (you would "win" with an interest rate decrease and "lose" with an interest rate increase.

Assumptions: investment horizon is 8 years. Now we'll work through the example assuming that interest rates decrease from 8% to 6% in year 4 and again from 8% to 12% in year 4.90.change. you set the value-weighted average modified duration of the portfolio at the investment horizon and keep it equal to the remaining horizon value over time.005--long term bonds won't rise by . They assume that IR changes will affect all rates by the same amount (i. If there is no change in yields. all rates will rise by . Under the maturity strategy simply choose a bond with 8 years to maturity.005. Fisher and Weil (because of the opposing effects of IR on price and coupon reinvestment risk) developed a precise immunization process to eliminate IR risk. You will "win" with an increase in IR and vice versa. find a bond with a modified duration that equal 8 (or as close to 8 as possible). then portfolio immunization can be achieved by holding a portfolio of bonds with a modified duration equal to the remaining investment horizon. "To obtain a given portfolio duration. Under the duration strategy.007 and short term by .e. both will rise by . current YTM is 8% on 8 year bonds. a modified duration equal to the investment horizon. There are two strategies for portfolio immunization: 1. the duration strategy (set modified duration equal to investment horizon). Compare the results of choosing a bond with a maturity equal to the investment horizon vs. the maturity strategy (term to maturity equal to investment horizon). From 8% to 6%: Results with Maturity Strategy Results with Duration Strategy . This should also be the expected ending-wealth for a fully immunized portfolio. and 2. this cannot be accomplished. Fisher and Weil argue that a portfolio has been immunized if its value at the end of the period is the same (or higher) than what it would have been if interest rates had not changed during the investment horizon. Bond portfolio managers would like to eliminate these two interest rate risks. If this is the case." Example of Immunization.005). Immunization and Interest Rate Risk: Note that the "win" situation under price risk is exactly opposite the "win" situation under coupon reinvestment risk.005 or fall by . the expected ending-wealth would be $1000 * 1.08^8 = $1.850.

08 .40 259.4 Notice that under the maturity strategy you would lose (from an expected value of $1.12 Ending Value 80 166.75 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1805.08 .12 . whereas under the duration strategy .12 .06 .71 360.42 1881.40 259.71 360.08 .90 to an actual value of $1.71 360.850. Rate .12 .12 .49 462.06 .49 483.Year Cash Flow 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 1080 Reinv.99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1949.06 .80 776.80 776.06 Ending Value 80 166.75 621.08 1120.42 Results with Duration Strategy Cash Flow 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 Reinv.805.08 .04 Cash Flow 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 Reinv.04 1845.08 .06 .08 .40 259.40 259.06 .49 462.08 .85 684.08 .12 596.49 483.12 596.64 From 8% to 12% Results with Maturity Strategy Year Cash Flow 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 1080 Reinv.12 .75 621.08 . Rate .06 Ending Value 80 166.08 .08).08 .85 684.08 .08 .12 Ending Value 80 166.12 .71 360.59 1012.08 .08 .06 .08 . Rate . Rate .

845. duration is affected by changes in interest rates. so. in reality it is not (except zero coupon bonds face no coupon reinvestment risk or price risk--as its duration is its term to maturity). etc. So.72 or $1.99 (depending on whether interest rates fell or rose). Implementing Immunization. Also. Most portfolios (non-zero-coupon portfolios) require frequent rebalancing to maintain the modified duration/investment horizon matching. duration changes at a slower pace than term to maturity. While we would have preferred the ending wealth achieved under the rise in IR scenario using the maturity strategy. Duration is positively affected by term to maturity. it takes constant rebalancing to keep track of duration matching immunization strategy. You cannot initially set them equal and then ignore them after that. due to the uncertainty of IR changes. However. even passive. .you would still have an expected value of $1. as time passes as your investment horizon shortens.850.881.90 and you would achieve $1. The duration strategy actually achieved the ending wealth closest to the expected wealth under both scenarios. While on the surface the immunization strategy may seem simple. before the fact. where interest rates will actually be. so does the duration of the bond portfolio (assuming nothing else has changed). it's impossible to know.

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