# Chapter 7 –Sampling

V.E.S College of Arts, Science & Commerce

Chapter 7 Sampling

SAMPLING

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Chapter 7 –Sampling

V.E.S College of Arts, Science & Commerce

**Census versus Sample
**

• • Census in simple terms means to measure each element in the group or population of interest. A part of a population, or a subset from a set of units, which is provided by some process or other, usually by deliberate selection with the object of investigating the properties of the parent population or set. • • Surveys of industrial consumers or of distributors of consumer products are frequently in the form of a census. However there are certain reasons, which make census impractical or even impossible. The reasons are as follows: 1. Cost: Cost is an obvious constraint on the determination of whether a census should be taken. If information is desired on grocery purchase and use behaviour (frequencies and amounts of purchase of each product category, average amount kept at home and the like) and the population of interest is all households in a country, the cost will preclude a census being taken. Thus a sample is the only logical way of obtaining new data from a population of this size. 2. Time: The kind of cost we have just considered is an outlay cost. The time involved in obtaining information from either a census or a sample involves the possibility of also incurring an opportunity cost. That is, the decision until information is obtained may result in a smaller gain or a larger loss than would have been the case from making the same decision earlier. The opportunity to make more (or save more, as the case may be) is, therefore, foregone. 3. Accuracy: A study using a census, by definition, contains no sampling error. A study using a sample may involve sampling error in addition to other types of error. Other things being equal, a census will provide more accurate data than a sample. However it has been argued that a more accurate estimate of the population of a country could be made from a sample than from a census. Taking a census of a population on a “mail out – mail back” basis requires that the names and addresses of almost all households be obtained, census

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questionnaires mailed, and interviews conducted of those

not responding.

The questionnaires are sent to a population of which only about half have completed high school. The potential for errors in a returned questionnaire is therefore high. 4. Destructive nature of the measurement: Measurements are sometimes destructive in nature. When they are, it is apparent that taking a census would usually defeat the purpose of a measurement. If one were producing firecrackers, electrical fuses, or gas seed, performing a functional use test on all products for quality control purposes would not be considered from an economic standpoint. A sample is then the only practical choice. On the other hand, if the light bulbs, bicycles, or electrical appliances are to be tested, a 100% sample (census) may be entirely reasonable.

Advantages of Sampling

1. Sampling is cheaper than a census survey. It is obviously more economical, for instance, to cover a sample of households than all households in a territory although the cost per unit of study may be higher in a sample survey than in a census. 2. Since magnitude of operations involved in a sample survey is small, both the execution of the fieldwork and the analysis of the results can be carried out speedily. 3. Sampling results in greater economy of effort as relatively small staffs is required to carry out the survey and to tabulate and process the survey data. 4. A sample survey enables the researcher to collect more detailed information than would otherwise be possible in a census survey. Also, information of a more specialised type can be collected, which would not be possible in a census survey on account of availability of a small number of specialists. 5. Since the scale of operations involved in a sample survey is small, the quality of interviewing, supervision and other related activities can be better than the quality in a census survey.

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Limitations of Sampling

1. When the information is needed on every unit in the population such as individuals, dwelling units or business establishments, a sample survey cannot be of much help for it fails to provide information on individual count. 2. Sampling gives rise to certain errors. If these errors are too large, the results of the sample survey will be of extremely limited use. 3. While in a census survey it may be easy to check the omissions of certain units in view of complete coverage, this is not so in the case of sample survey.

**The Sampling Process
**

Step 1. Define the population 2. Specify sampling frame Description The population is defined in terms of a) element, b) units, c) extent and d) time. The means of representing the elements of the population – for example telephone book, map, or 3. Specify sampling unit city directory – are described. The unit for sampling – for example, city block, company, or household – is selected. The sampling unit may contain one or several population elements. 4. Specify sampling method The method by which sampling units are to be 5. Determine sample size 6. Specify sampling plan 7. Select the sample Step 1: Define the population It is the aggregate of all elements defined prior to selection of sample. A population must be defined in terms of • elements,

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selected is described. The number of elements of the population to be sampled is chosen. The operational procedures for selection of the sampling units are selected. The office and fieldwork necessary for the selection of the sample are carried out.

Chapter 7 –Sampling

V.E.S College of Arts, Science & Commerce

• sampling units, • extent and • time. Eliminating any one of these specifications leaves an incomplete definition of the population that is to be sampled. Step 2: Specify the Sampling frame If a probability sample is to be taken, a sampling frame is required. A sampling frame is a means of representing the elements of the population. A sampling frame may be a telephone book, city directory, an employee roster, a listing of all students attending a university, or a list of possible phone numbers. Maps also serve frequently as sampling frames. A sample of areas within a city may be taken and another sample of household then be taken within each area. City blocks are sometimes sampled and all households on each sample block are included. A sampling of street intersections may be taken and interviewers given instructions as to how to take “Random walks”. From the intersection and select the households to be interviewed. A perfect sampling frame is one in which every element of the population is represented once but only once. One does not need a sampling frame to take a nonprobability sample. Step 3: Specify the sampling Unit The sampling unit is the basic unit containing the elements of the population to be sampled. It may be the element itself or a unit in which the element is contained. For example, if one wanted a sample of males over 13 years of age, it might be possible to sample them directly. In this case, the sampling unit would be identical with the element. However, it might be easier to select households as the sampling unit and interview all males over 13 years of age in each household. Here the sampling unit and the population element are not the same.

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Step 4: Specify the Sampling Methods It indicates how the sample units are selected. One of the most important decisions in this regard is to determine which of the two –probability and non-probability sample –is to be chosen. Probability samples are also known as random samples and non-probability samples as non-random samples. There are various types of sample designs, which can be covered under two broad groups – random or probability samples and non-random, or non-probability samples. Step 5: Determination of the Sample size Traditional sampling theory generally ignores the concept of the cost versus the value of the information to be provided by various sized samples. The problem of determination of sample size is dealt later on in depth. Step 6: Specify the Sampling Plan The sampling plan involves the specification of how each of the decisions made thus far is to be implemented. It may have been decided that the household will be the element and the block the sampling unit. How is a household defined operationally? How is the interviewer to be instructed to distinguish between families and households in instances where two families and some distant relatives of one of them are sharing the same apartment? How is the interviewer to be instructed to take a systematic sample of households on the block? What should the interviewer do when a housing unit selected is vacant? What is the callback procedure for households at which no one is at home? What age respondent speaking for the household is acceptable? Step 7: Select the Sample The final step in the sampling process is the actual selection of the sample elements. This requires a substantial amount of office and fieldwork particularly if personal interview are involved.

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**Characteristics of a good Sample Design
**

A good sample design requires the judicious balancing of four broad criteria –goal orientation, measurability, practicality and economy. 1. Goal orientation: This suggests that a sample design “should be oriented to the research objectives, tailored to the survey design, and fitted to the survey conditions”. If this is done, it should influence the choice of the population, the measurement as also the procedure of choosing a sample. 2. Measurability: A sample design should enable the computation of valid estimates of its sampling variability. Normally, this variability is expressed in the form of standard errors in surveys. However, this is possible only in the case of probability sampling. In non-probability samples, such a quota sample, it is not possible to know the degree of precision of the survey results. 3. Practicality: This implies that the sample design can be followed properly in the survey, as envisaged earlier. It is necessary that complete, correct, practical, and clear instructions should be given to the interviewer so that no mistakes are made in the selection of sampling units and the final selection in the field is not different from the original sample design. Practicality also refers to simplicity of the design, i.e. it should be capable of being understood and followed in actual operation of the field work. 4. Economy: Finally, economy implies that the objectives of the survey should be achieved with minimum cost and effort. Survey objectives are generally spelt out in terms of precision, i.e. the inverse of the variance of survey estimates. For a given degree of precision, the sample design should give the minimum cost. Alternatively, for a given per unit cost, the sample design should achieve maximum precision (minimum variance). It may be pointed out that these four criteria come into conflict with each other in most of the cases, and the researcher should carefully balance the conflicting criteria so that he is able to select a really good sample design.

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Sampling Techniques

Sampling techniques may be broadly classified as non-probability and probability sampling techniques. Non-probability sampling techniques: 1. It relies on the personal judgment of the researcher rather than t he chance to select sample elements. 2. The researcher can arbitrarily or consciously decide which element to include in the sample. 3. Non-probability may yield good estimates of the population characteristic. However they do not allow for objective evaluation of the precision of the sample results. 4. Since there is no way of determining the probability of selecting any particular element for inclusion in the sample, the estimates obtained are not statistically projectable to the population. Probability sampling techniques: 1. Sampling units are selected by chance. 2. It is possible to pre-specify every potential sample of a given size that could be drawn from the population, as well as the probability of selecting each sample. 3. Every potential sample need not have the same probability of selection, but it is possible to specify the probability of selecting any particular sample of a given size. 4. This requires not only a precise definition of the target population, but also a general specification of the sampling frame. Because sample elements are selected by chance. 5. It is possible to determine the precision of the sample estimated of the characteristics of interest. Confidence intervals, which contain the true population value with a given level of certainty, can be calculated. This permits the researcher to make inferences of projections about the target population

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from which the sample was drawn. Probability sampling techniques are classified based on : − Element versus cluster sampling − Equal unit probability versus unequal probabilities − Unstratified versus stratified selection − Random versus systematic selection − Single-stage versus multistage techniques Diagrammatic representation of the sampling techniques. Sampling techniques

Non probability sampling techniques

Probability techniques

sampling

Convenience Sampling

Judgmental Sampling

Quota Sampling

Simple Random Sampling

Systematic Sampling

Stratified Sampling

Cluster Sampling

Multistage Sampling

Non-probability techniques:

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Convenience Sampling Definition A non-probability sampling technique that attempts to obtain a sample of convenient elements. The selection of sampling units is left primarily to the interviewer. Explanation 1. It is a form of Non-Probability sampling. 2. It is mainly used for Dipstick studies. This type of sampling is normally used to get basic information to take elementary decisions. 3. Convenience samples are often used in exploratory situations when there is a need to get only an approximation of the actual value quickly and inexpensively. 4. Commonly used Convenience samples are associates and “the man on the street”. Such samples are often used in the pre-test phase of the study, such as pre-testing of a questionnaire. Examples: • • • • • • • • Use of students, church groups, and members of social organizations, Mall-intercept interviews without qualifying the respondents, Department stores using charge account lists Tear out questionnaire included in a magazines, and People on the street interviews

Advantages Convenience sampling is the least expensive and least time consuming of all sampling techniques. The sampling units are accessible, easy to measure and co-operative. This technique is used in exploratory research for generating ideas, insight or hypothesis. Disadvantages • • Convenience samples contain unknown amounts of both variables and systematic selection errors. These errors can be very large when compared to the variable error in a simple random sampling of the same size.

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Convenience samples are not representatives of any definable population. So they are not recommended for descriptive or casual research. Judgmental sampling Definition A form of convenience sampling in which the population elements are purposively selected based on the judgment of the researcher. Explanation A judgment sample is one in which there is an attempt to draw a representative sample of the population using judgmental selection procedures. Judgment samples are common in industrial market research. Example A sample of addresses taken by the municipal agency to which questionnaires on bicycle riding habits were sent. A judgment sample was taken after researchers looked at traffic maps of the city, considered the tax assessment on houses and apartment buildings (per unit), and kept location of schools and parks in mind. Advantages • • • • Judgmental sampling is low cost, convenient and quick. Judgmental sampling is subjective and its value depends entirely on the researchers judgment, expertise and creativity. It is useful if broad population inferences are not required.

Disadvantage It does not allow direct generalization to a specific population, usually because the population is not defined explicitly. Quota Sampling

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Definition A non probability sampling techniques that is a two stage restricted judgmental sampling. The first stage consists of developing control categories or quotas of population elements. In the second stag, sample elements are selected based on convenience or judgment. Explanation • • It is a form of Non-Probability sampling. In Quota Sampling, the samples are selected in such a way that the interest parameters represented in the sample are in the same proportion as they are in the universe/ population. • • Quota Sampling is widely used in consumer panels. The following aspects must be kept in mind while choosing the control variables: − The variables must be available and should be recent. − They should be easy for the interviewer to classify. − They should be closely related to the variable being measured in the study. − The number of variable must be kept to a reasonable number so as to avoid confusion while analyzing the data The cost of sample per unit is directly proportional to the number of control variables. In order to have a check mechanism about the quality of samples taken so as to reduce the selection errors, Quota Samples are “validated” after they are taken. The process of validation involves a comparison of the sample and the population with respect to characteristics not used as control variables. For e.g. in a quota sample taken from a consumer panel for which income, education, and age group are used as control variables. If the comparison of this panel and the population might be made with respect to such characteristics as average number of children, occupation of the chief wage earner and home ownership. Then if the panel differed significantly from the population with respect to any of these characteristics, it would be an indication of the potential bias in the selection procedures. It should be noted that the similarity does not necessarily mean the absence of bias.

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Example If one wants to select a Quota sample of persons for a test of flavored tea and wants to control (control variables are the parameters based on which he would like to classify the universe) it by ethnic background, income bracket, age group and geographical area. Then the sample taken would have the same proportion of people in each ethnic background, income bracket, age group and geographical area as the population. Disadvantages • • • Scope for high variances Scope for sizable selection errors. Selection errors arise from the way interviewers select the persons/ variables to fill the quota. Incorrect information of the proportions of the population in each of the control variables, biases in the relationship of the control variables to the variables being measured, and from other sources.

Probability Techniques:

Probability sampling techniques vary in terms of sampling efficiency. Sampling efficiency is a concept that reflects a trade-offs between sampling cost and precision. Precision refers to the level of uncertainty about the characteristic being measured. The greater the precision, the greater the cost and most studies require trade-off. Simple Random Sampling Definition A probability sampling technique in which each element in the population has a known and equal probability of selection is known as simple random sampling (SRS). Every element is selected independently of every other element and the sample is drawn by a random procedure from a sampling frame. Explanation In random sampling, each element in the population has a known and equal probability of selection. Furthermore, each possible sample of a given size (n) has a known and equal probability of being the sample actually selected. This implies that

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every other element is selected independently of every other element. The sample is drawn by a random procedure from a sampling frame. This method is equivalent to a lottery system in which names are placed in a container, the container is shaken, and the names of the winners are then drawn out in an unbiased manner. To draw a simple random sample, the researcher first compiles a sampling frame in which each element is assigned a unique identification number. Then random numbers are generated to determine which element to include in the sample. The random numbers may be generated with a computer routine or a table. Advantages • • • • • • It is easy to understand The sample result may be projected to the target population.

Disadvantages It is often difficult to construct a sampling frame that will permit a simple random sample to be drawn. SRS can result in samples that are very large or spread over large geographic areas, thus increasing the time and cost of data collection. SRS often results in lower precision with larger standard errors than other probability sampling techniques. SRS may or may not result in a representative sample. Although samples drawn will represent the population well on average, a given simple random sample may grossly misrepresent the target population. This more likely if the size of the sample is small. Systematic sampling Definition A probability sampling technique in which the sample is chosen by selecting a random starting point and then picking every ith element in succession from the sampling frame.

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Explanation In systematic sampling, the sample is chosen by selecting a random starting point and then picking every ith element in succession from the sampling frame. The sampling interval, i, is determined by dividing the population size N by the sample size n and rounding to the nearest integer. Example Suppose there are 100,000 elements in the population and a sample of 1000 desired. In this case the sampling interval, i, is 100. A random number between 1 to 100 is selected. If say number 23 is selected, the sample will then consists of elements 23, 123, 223, 323, 423, 523, and so on. Systematic sampling is similar to SRS in that each population element has a known and equal probability of selection. However, it is different from SRS in that only the permissible samples of size n that can be drawn have a known and equal probability of selection. The remaining samples of size n have a zero probability of being selected. For systematic sampling, the researcher assumes that the population elements are ordered in some respect. In some cases the ordering (alphabetic listing in a telephone book) is unrelated to the characteristic of interest. In other instances, the ordering is directly related to the characteristic under investigation. (Credit card customers may be listed in order of outstanding balances. If the population elements are arranged in a manner unrelated to the characteristic of interest, systematic sampling will yield result quite similar to SRS. On the other hand, when the ordering of the element is related to the characteristic of interest, systematic sampling increases the representatives of the sample. Advantages • • Systematic sampling is less costly and easier that SRS, because random selection is done only once. The random numbers do not have to be matched with individual element as in SRS. Since some lists contains millions of elements, considerable time can be saved. This in turn again reduces the cost.

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•

If the information related to the characteristic of interest is available for the population, systematic sampling can be used to obtain a more representative and reliable sample than SRS.

•

Systematic sampling can even be used without knowledge of the composition (elements) of the sampling frame.

Stratified Random Sampling Definition A probability sampling technique that uses a two-step process to partition the population into subpopulations, or strata is known as stratified random sampling. Elements are selected from each stratum by a random procedure. Explanation Stratified Random Sampling emerges from the word Stratum. A Stratum in a population is a segment of that population having one or more characteristics. E.g. people in the age strata of 35-40, people in the income strata to Rs. 20000 p.m. etc Stratified Sampling involves treating each stratum as a separate subpopulation for sampling purposes, and from each stratum sampling units would be drawn randomly. The reasons for conducting Stratified Random Sampling are: • • To reduce sampling error by ensuring representation from the population. The required sample size for the same level of sampling error will usually be smaller. As compared to other methods of sampling, in Stratified Random Sampling representativeness to a certain degree is forced. The greater degree to which there is similarity within stratum, smaller is the sample size required to provide information about that stratum. Thus the more homogeneous each stratum is with respect to the variable of interest the smaller is the sample required. Example If the head of the household age strata (18-34, 35-49, 50+) are of interest in a study on household spending habits on household furnishings, then each of these groups

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would be taken separately for sampling purposes. That is, the total population could be divided into age groups and a separate sample is drawn from each group. Cluster Sampling Definition The target population is divided into mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subpopulation called clusters. Then a random sample of clusters is selected based on probability sampling techniques such as simple random sampling. For each selected clusters, either all the elements are included in the sample or a sample of elements is drawn probabilistically. Explanation • • • If all the elements in each selected cluster are included in the sample, the procedure is called one stage cluster sampling. If a sample of elements is drawn probabilistically from each selected cluster, the procedure is called two-stage cluster sampling. The key distinction between cluster sampling and stratified sampling is that in cluster sampling only a sample of subpopulations (clusters) is chosen, whereas in stratified sampling all the subpopulations are selected. • The objective of the cluster sampling is to increase the sampling efficiency by decreasing costs. Example If the study requires studying the households in the city then in cluster sampling the whole city is divided into Blocks and to take each household on each block selected. Thus to get a representative whole of the universe. Advantages • • • Low population heterogeneity / high population homogeneity Low expected cost of errors. The main advantage of cluster sampling is the low cost per sampling unit as compared to other sampling methods.

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Disadvantage • • High potential of sampling error as compared to other methods. For eg: The lower cost per unit and higher sampling error potential of a cluster sample is illustrated by considering a sample of 100 households to be selected for personal interviews from a particular city. In this method the city would be divided in blocks and 10 households from 10 selected blocks would be selected and interviewed. Thus the cost of personal interview per unit will be low because of the close proximity of the units in the cluster. This sample may not be the exact representation of the entire city. Thus there is a possibility of sampling error. Single Stage V/s Multistage Sampling Explanation The number of stages involved in the sampling method is partially a function of the number of sampling frame available. If a perfect frame were always available complete with all the associated information one might want for purposes of clustering and / or stratifying, there would be far fewer multiple samples taken than there are now. In practice, it is not uncommon to have a first stage area sample of, say, census tracts, followed by a second stage sample of blocks, and completed with a systematic sample of households within each block. These stages would not be necessary if a complete listing of households were available. Example AC Nielsen’s Multistage Sampling Procedure to select its PeopleMeter Panel The first stage involves the selection of counties using a stratified random sample based on population. Next within the selected counties there is a random selection of blocks or enumeration districts. These blocks then go through a process called prelisting. A trained field representative visits the selected blocks and creates a list of all the individual hosing units. This list is then returned to the home office where it is checked for internal consistency and external agreement with other data. Finally, individual household units are randomly selected from each block.

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STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESS OF BASIC SAMPLING TECHNIQUES Techniques Non probability sampling Convenience sampling Least time expensive, consuming, least Selection bias; sample not most representative; not recommended for descriptive or casual research. Judgmental sampling Low cost, convenient, not Does not allow time consuming Quota sampling generalization subjective Strengths Weaknesses

convenient

Sample can be controlled Selection bias, no for certain characteristics assurance of representativeness.

Snowball sampling

Can

estimate

rare Time consuming

characteristics

**Probability Sampling Simple Random Sampling Easily understood
**

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Difficult to construct

Chapter 7 –Sampling

V.E.S College of Arts, Science & Commerce

(SRS)

Result projectable

sampling frame; expensive lower precison; no assurance of representativeness

Systematic Sampling

Can increase representativeness. implement sampling necessary Easier than frame SRS not

Can decrease

to representativeness

Stratified sampling

Includes

all

important Difficult to select relevant stratification variables; not feasible to stratify on many variable; expensive

subpopulations; precision

Cluster sampling

Easy to implement, cost Imprecise; difficult to effective compute and interpret results

Choosing Non probability versus Probability Sampling The choice between non probability and probability samples should be based on considerations such as the nature of the research, relative magnitude of non sampling versus sampling errors, variability in the population, as well as statistical and operational considerations. For example, Conditions favoring the use of Non probability Factors Sampling Probability Sampling

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Nature of research Relative errors Variability in the population Statistical consideration Operational consideration magnitude

Exploratory of Non sampling

Conclusive errors Sampling larger. errors are

sampling and non-sampling are larger

Homogenous (low) Unfavorable Favorable

Heterogeneous (high) Favorable Unfavorable

In exploratory research the findings are treated as preliminary and the use of probability sampling may not be warranted. On the other hand, in conclusive research in which the researcher wishes to use the results to estimate overall market shares or the size of the total market, probability sampling is favored. Probability samples allow statistical projection of the results to a target population. For some research problems, highly estimates of population characteristic are required. In these situations, the elimination of selection bias and the ability to calculate sampling error make probability sampling desirable. However probability sampling will not always result in more accurate results. If nonsampling errors are likely to be an important factor, then non-probability sampling may be preferable, as the use of judgment may allow greater control over the sampling process. Another consideration is the homogeneity of the population with respect to the variables of interest. A more heterogeneous population would favor probability sampling, because it would be important to secure a representative sample. Probability sampling is preferable from a statistical viewpoint, as it is the basis of most common statistical techniques.

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However, probability sampling is sophisticated and requires statistically trained researcher. It generally costs more and takes longer than does nonprobability sampling. In many marketing research projects, it is difficult to justify the additional time and expense. Therefore, in practice, the objectives of the study dictate which sampling method will be used.

**Methods of determining sample size
**

There are six methods of determining sample size in market research. They are 1. Unaided Judgement: When no specific method is used to determine sample size, it is called Unaided Judgement. Such approach when used to arrive at sample size gives no explicit considerations to either the likely precision of the sample results or the cost of obtaining them (characteristics in which client should have interest). It is an approach to be avoided. 2. All –You –Can –Afford: In this method, a budget for the project is set by some (generally unspecified) process and, after the estimated fixed costs of designing the project, preparing a questionnaire (if required), analysing the data, and preparing the report are deducted, the remainder of the budget is allocated to sampling. Dividing this remaining amount by the estimated cost per sampling unit gives the sample size. This method concentrates on the cost of the information and is not concerned about its value. Although cost always has to be considered in any systematic approach to sample size determination, one also needs to give consideration to how much the information to be provided by the sample will be worth. This approach produces sample sizes that are larger than required as well as sizes that are smaller than optimal. 3. Required Size Per Cell: This method of determining sample size can be used on simple random, stratified random, purposive and quota samples. For example, in a study of attitudes with respect to fast food establishments in a local marketing area it was decided that information was desired for two occupational groups and for each of the four age groups. This resulted in 2 x 4 = 8 sample

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cells. A sample size of 30 was needed per cell for the types of statistical analyses that were to be conducted. The overall sample size was therefore 8 x 30 = 240. 4. Use of Traditional Statistical Model: The formula for traditional statistical model depends upon the type of sample to be taken and it always incorporates three common variables • • • an estimate of the variance in the population from which the sample is to be drawn, the error from sampling that the researcher will allow, and the desired level of confidence that the actual sampling error will be within the allowable limits. The statistical models for simple random sampling include estimation of means and estimation of proportion. 5. Use of Bayesian Statistical Model: The Bayesian model involves finding the difference between the expected value of the information to be provided by the sample size. This difference is known as expected net gain from sampling (ENGS). The sample size with the largest positive ENGS is chosen. The Bayesian model is not as widely used as the traditional statistical models for determining sample size, even though it incorporates the cost of sampling and the traditional models do not. The reasons for the relative infrequent use of Bayesian model are related to greater complexity and perceived difficulty of making the estimates required for Bayesian model as compared to the traditional models.

**The Sampling Distribution
**

Sampling theory rests on the concept of a sampling distribution. Sampling distribution includes • • Sampling distribution of the mean Sampling distribution of the proportion

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Simulated sampling distribution of the mean A sampling distribution of the mean is the relative frequency distribution of the means of all possible samples of size n taken from a population of size N. The definition specifies that all possible samples of size n from population of size N should be taken, and the mean of each sample should be calculated and plotted in relative frequency table. A sampling distribution of the mean for simple random samples that are large (30 or more) has • • • a normal distribution a mean equal to the population (M) a standard deviation, called the standard error of the mean( ), that is equal to the population standard deviation( ) divided by the square root of the sample size FORMULA:

Standard deviation is called standard error of the mean to indicate to indicate that it applies to a distribution of sample means and not to a single sample or a population. A basic characteristic of a sampling distribution is that the area under it (between any two points) can be calculated so long as each point is defined by the number of standard errors it is away from the mean. The number of standard error, a point is away from the mean is referred as the Z value for that point. Sampling Distribution of the Proportion A sampling distribution of the proportion is the relative frequency distribution of the proportion (p) of all possible samples of size n taken from population of size N. A sampling distribution of a proportion for a simple random sample has a • normal distribution

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• •

a mean equal to the population proportion (P) a standard error ( ) equal to

FORMULA:

The estimated standard error of the proportion (given a large sample size that is a small proportion of the population) is FORMULA:

where p represents the sample population.

**Traditional Statistical Methods of Determining Sample
**

Determination of Sample Size in Problem Involving Means Three kinds of specifications have to be made before the sample size necessary to estimate the population mean can be determined. These are 1. Specification of error (e) that can be allowed –how close must the estimate be (how accurate do we need to be)? 2. Specification of confidence coefficient –what level of confidence is required that the actual sampling error does not exceed that specified (how sure do we want to be that we have achieved our desired accuracy)? 3. Estimate of the population standard deviation( ) –what is the standard deviation of the population (how “spread out” or diverse is the population)? The three specifications are related in the following way: Number of standard errors implied by confidence coefficient = allowable error standard error or in symbols,

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FORMULA:

The only unknown variable is sample size (n). A simpler formula for the size of simple random samples can be derived from the above equation. FORMULA:

Determination of Sample Size in Problem Involving Proportions The specifications that must be made to determine the sample size for an estimation problem involving a proportion are very similar to those for a mean. They are 1. Specification of error (e) that can be allowed –how close must the estimate be? 2. Specification of confidence coefficient –what level of confidence is required that the actual sampling error does not exceed that specified? 3. Estimate of the population proportion (P) using prior information –what is the approximate or estimated population proportion? Specifications, along with the sample size, collectively determine the sampling distribution for the problem. Because sample size is the only remaining unknown, it can be calculated. The above mentioned three specifications are related as follows: Number of standard errors implied by confidence coefficient = allowable error standard error or in symbols, FORMULA:

**The formula for determining n that is sample size directly is FORMULA:
**

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Chapter 7 –Sampling

V.E.S College of Arts, Science & Commerce

Determination of Sample Size in Problems Involving Hypothesis Testing A hypothesis is a proposition, which the researcher wants to verify. It may be mentioned that while a hypothesis is useful, it is not always necessary. Many a time, the researcher is interested in collecting and analysing data, indicating the main characteristics without a hypothesis excepting the one, which he may suggest incidentally during the course of his study. However, in a problem-oriented research, it is necessary to formulate a hypothesis. In such research, hypothesis are generally concerned with the causes of a certain phenomenon or a relationship between two or more variables under investigation. In order to determine the sample the size in a hypothesis testing problem involving proportion, the following specifications must be made: 1. the hypotheses to be tested: A null and an alternate hypothesis are involved in each hypothesis test. A null hypothesis, designated by Ho, is one that, if accepted, will result in no option being formed and/or action being taken that is different from those currently held or being used. The null hypothesis in the problem just described is Ho: order rate = 3.5% The alternate hypothesis, designated by H1, is one that will lead to opinions being formed and/or actions being taken that are different from those currently held or being used. The alternate hypothesis here is H1: order rate = 5.0% Although null hypothesis is always explicitly stated, this is sometimes not true of the alternate hypothesis. In those instances when it is not stated it is understood that it consists of all values of the proportion not reserved by the null hypothesis.

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Chapter 7 –Sampling

V.E.S College of Arts, Science & Commerce

In this situation if the alternate hypothesis were not explicitly stated, it would be understood that it would be H1: order rate (is not equal to) 3.5% 2. the level of sampling error permitted in the test of each hypothesis: Two types of error can be made in hypothesis testing problems. An error is made when null hypothesis is true but the conclusion is reached that the alternate hypothesis should be accepted. This is known as Type I error. The Type II error is made when the alternate hypothesis is accepted 3. the test statistic to be used. In order to determine the sample the size in a hypothesis-testing problem involving means, the following specifications must be made: 1. the hypotheses to be tested, 2. the level of sampling error permitted in the test of each hypothesis, 3. the standard deviation of population, and 4. the test statistic to be used.

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