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Stability Study on Belize

Stability Study on Belize

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Intelligence Estimate on the stability of Belize over the next 24 months
Intelligence Estimate on the stability of Belize over the next 24 months

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Belize: Stability Amidst Struggle

 

Mercyhurst  College  Country  Study   Courses:  INTL501  and  INTL510   Instructors:  D.  Wozneak  and  J.  Breckenridge   Author:  David  Krauza   08-­‐November-­‐2011  

   

Table of Contents
Annex 1: Belize: Stability Amidst Struggle Annex 2: Intelligence Collection Plan (ICP) Annex 3: Link Analysis Annex 4: Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) Analysis Annex 4a: IPB Image Annex 5: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) Annex 5a: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Chart Annex 5b: Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Chart Annex 6: Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Analysis Annex 7: Analyst Contact Information
  Title Page Sources:   Belize Coat of Arms: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Coat_of_arms_of_Belize.svg Belize Location: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/15/Bh_large_locator.gif Belize Panorama: http://mybelizeexperience.com/about-belize/360-panorama-of-turneffe-islands-beach/  

2 4 17 19 21 22 25 32 34 37

 

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Annex: 1 Belize: Stability Amidst Struggle
Executive Summary: Belize is likely to be stable in 24 months primarily for political and geographic reasons. It is unlikely that any party will attempt to take power by undemocratic means in the next two years due to Belize’s strong democratic tradition. Current relations with the US are likely to remain stable over the next 24 months. The US and Belize are almost certain to work together to combat drug trafficking during the next two years. Another factor contributing to stability is the terrain of Belize. It is highly likely the jungle, swamps, mountains, and barrier reef islands will prevent a foreign power from invading. Violent crime has been increasing in Belize over the past 10 years and it is highly likely to be a destabilizing factor, however, it is unlikely to affect the overall stability of the country. Belize’s recently ratified ninth constitutional amendment, which limits court challenges to certain actions taken by parliament, is unlikely to be a source of instability in the next 24 months. Discussion: The strong democratic traditions in Belize and membership in the British Commonwealth are likely to ensure stability over the next 24 months. The Belize Constitution guarantees universal suffrage, presumption of innocence in a criminal trial, freedom of religion, and freedom of speech. Since Belize gained independence from the UK in 1981 whenever a transition of power has occurred between the two major parties, it has always occurred peacefully1. According to Jane’s Sentinel Security assessment the next round of elections scheduled for 2013 is not expected to provoke major social or political controversies. If Belizeans become dissatisfied with their government it is highly likely they will change leadership through the ballot box. The aid provided by the US to Belize is likely to be a stabilizing factor since the US has a strong interest in eliminating Belize as a drug transshipment point. Since 2008 the US has provided Belize about 15 million USD in security Image 1.1: assistance, including boats and other vehicles, Belize Coast Guard Vessel 2 communications gear and training programs . The purchased with US aid Source: sanpedrosun.net US Military Liaison Office (MLO) working with the Belize Defense Force (BDF) provided the necessary funding to establish the Belize Coast Guard in 20053. The US Government also provided a 300,000 USD donation to the Belize Coast Guard in 2011 to help combat drug traffickers operating off the Belize coast4.

 

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  It would be unlikely a foreign military would conduct operations in no go areas. Thick jungle and swamps generally characterize no go regions. The region has very few passable roads that a foreign military would need if they were invading Belize. The barrier reef off Belize’s coast in the Caribbean Sea are a no go area for a foreign navy. It is unlikely a foreign navy would attempt to conduct an invasion of Belize by sea due to the limited avenues of approach created by the barrier reef islands. Increasing violence in Belize is highly likely to be a destabilizing factor, however, it is unlikely to affect the overall stability of the country. Since 2003 Belize’s murder rate per capita has roughly doubled, it is now the fifth highest in the Western Hemisphere. The increase in murder is associated with the increased use of Belize as a drug transshipment point by Mexican and Columbian drug cartels It is highly unlikely over the next 24 months parliament will use the ninth amendment to co-opt the democratic process that has been in place. Recently, the ninth amendment to the Belize constitution was ratified. The amendment limits court challenges to certain laws passed by parliament. Image 1.2:
Picture of the Jungle Terrain of Belize Source: backgrounds.picaboo.com

Comments: The sources used in this analysis are from official government and public news sources inside and outside of the target country. New information was incorporated into this estimate as it became available to provide the most accurate and up-to-date research. The author made every effort available to corroborate information with multiple sources. Source Reliability: 8 Analytic Confidence: 8                                                                                                                        
1 2 http://www.global-travel.co.uk/aboutbelize.htm http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/americas/mexican-drug-cartels-reach-into-tinybelize/2011/09/28/gIQA4lxzbL_story.html 3 http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/1955.htm 4 http://edition.channel5belize.com/archives/55336  

 

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Annex: 2 Intelligence Collection Plan (ICP)

Belize ICP Report
Created By: David Krauza

Purpose Source Name Title Type of Source Utility Comments Intelligence Type Time ID Periodicity Source Reliability

All
@Belizean Twitter Feed @Belizean Online News Source Useful HUMINT 9:00 AM Daily 7 1

Twitter feed with Belize news run by Manolo Romero (http://twitter.com/#!/BELIZEAN)

@officialBelize Twitter Feed @officialBelize Online News Source Useful HUMINT 9:00 AM Daily 7 2

The official twitter account for Belize. A suspicious claim given this is not a verified account (http://twitter.com/#!/officialBelize) BBC News BBC World News Service Online News Source Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 8 4

BBC World News Service (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world/latin_america/)

Belize News Post Belize News Post Newspaper Online Newspaper Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 8 5

General newspaper reporting on Belizean news items (http://belizenewspost.com/)

 

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Belizean Blog Belizean Blog Blog Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 7 6

Blog aimed at providing independent news about Belize from Belize (http://www.worldpress.org/link.cfm?http://www.belizean.com/) Channel 5 News Channel 5 News Online News Source Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 8 76

News Channel in Belize (http://edition.channel5belize.com/)

Channel 7 News Belize Channel 7 in Belize Online News Source Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 8 7

Local news channel in Belize City (http://www.7newsbelize.com/index.php)

CNN.com CNN Online News Source Not Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 8 16

Provides daily news and events occurring in Belize and Latin America (www.cnn.com). Belize coverage was limited EBSCO Host Online Database EBSCO:Accessed from Mercyhurst Library Research Center Useful Open Source 9:00 AM As Needed 9 18

Provides access to academic and other journals (http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/selectdb?sid=711b1f8f9b00-4a5f-9819-5e6f5244a6c5%40sessionmgr13&vid=1&hid=25) Expat Blog US Expat Blog:Belize Online Forum Not Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Weekly 6 8

Blog written by US Expats living and working in Belize (http://www.expat-blog.com/en/directory/centralamerica/belize/)

 

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Exxun Exxun Institutional Website Useful Open Source 9:00 AM As Needed 8 75

Provides reports on military, political, social, geography, technology, and political aspects of Belize (http://www.exxun.com/e44search.html?cx=007600688217835768708%3A4vkfu6ri7lq&cof=FORID%3A9 &ie=UTF-8&q=Belize&sa=Search&siteurl=www.exxun.com%2F#860) Google Alerts: Belize Google Alerts:Politics, Geography, Economics, Social, Technology and Military Online News Source Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 8 9

Summary of news articles update the news feed in Google Reader

Government of Belize Portal Government of Belize Government Website Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 7 20

Provides access to important information about the Government of Belize, including all branches of the Government. Will be biased towards the Government point of view. (http://www.belize.gov.bz/). The site is poorly designed and finding some information was very difficult Lexis-Nexus Alerts: Belize Lexis-Nexis Research Center Useful Daily news feeds related to Belize Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 8 10

Library of Congress US Government:Library of Congress Government Website Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Weekly 8 67

LOC contains many resources for researching the stability of Belize (www.loc.gov)

New York Times NYT Online News Paper Not Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 7 15

Provides daily news on events occurring in Belize and Latin America (www.nytimes.com). Coverage of Belize was limited

 

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RAND Corporation RAND Corporation Research Center Not Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 8 73

Research reports on various issues in Belize including Politics, Social, Economy, Military, Political and Technology (http://www.rand.org/search.html#eyJxdWVyeSI6ImJlbGl6ZSJ9) San Pedro Daily San Pedro Daily Online Newspaper Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 8 11

Daily synopsis of news related to San Pedro and Ambergris Caye. This newspaper will provide a perspective on news and events outside of major cities. (http://sanpedrodaily.com/) Staff at Belize Embassy Belize Embassy:HUMINT Personal Interview Not Useful HUMINT 9:00 AM Once 7 3

I will attempt to email and/or phone calls to staff at Belize Embassy in Washington, DC. I do not have a lot of confidence they will be receptive to my inquiries. (202-332-9636). Stratfor Stratfor Research Center Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Weekly 7 12

Provides research and analysis regarding news and events in Belize. (www.stratfor.com). Statfor's analysis of Belize was limited The CIA World Fact Book Central Intelligence Agency Government Website Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM As Needed 9 17

Provides basic information on Belize (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/bh.html) The Economist The Economist Online News Source Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Weekly 9 13

Weekly international affairs magazine based on London England (www.economist.com)

 

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The Reporter The Reporter Online Newspaper Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 7 14

Independent Newspaper in Belize. It should be more reliable than the official party newspapers. (http://www.reporter.bz/) US State Department Bureau of Consular Affairs US Dept of State Government Website Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM As Needed 8 19

Provides important information for travelers heading for Belize (http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/cis/cis_1055.html) Wall Street Journal WSJ.com Online Newspaper Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 8 66

Wall Street Journal is a national newspaper reporting on current news and events published in the United States (ww.wsj.com)

Economics
@belize_chat Twitter Feed @belize_chat Online News Source Useful HUMINT 9:00 AM Daily 6 21

Twitter feed that aims to bring Belizeans together via chat (http://twitter.com/#!/belize_chat)

@REMAXBelize Twitter Feed @REMAXBelize Online News Source Useful HUMINT 9:00 AM Daily 7 22

Twitter feed maintained the real estate company REMAX. Discusses issues with real estate prices, real estate sales, weather affecting real estate (http://twitter.com/#!/REMAXBelize). Primarily a sales tool for REMAX agents in Belize Amandala Online Amandala Online Newspaper Online Newspaper Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 8 24

Daily online newspaper in Belize reporting on Politics, Crime, Education, and Sports. The paper also offers editorial commentary (http://www.amandala.com.bz/)

 

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Belize Business Law Blog Belize Business Law Blog Blog Not Useful HUMINT 9:00 AM Weekly 8 23

Blog about opening and operating a business in Belize (http://belizebusinesslaw.com/belize-business-lawblog/) Belize Times Belize Times Newspaper Online Newspaper Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 5 25

Official Newspaper of the People's United Party (PUP). One of the oldest newspapers in Belize. Source will be biased towards the PUP point of view. (http://www.belizetimes.bz/) Embassy of Belize Website Embassy of Belize:Open Source Government Website Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Monthly 7 26

The official web site of the Belize Embassy in Washington, DC (http://www.embassyofbelize.org/)

International Monetary Fund Website IMF Research Center Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Monthly 8 27

Provides economic and financial data on Belize. (http://www.imf.org/external/country/blz/index.htm)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) OECD Research Center Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Monthly 8 28

Provides information on the economy, taxation and Belize's status as a tax haven (http://www.oecd.org/newinfobycountry/0,3760,en_2649_201185_1_70312_1_1_1,00.html) The (El) Guardian El Guardian Newspaper Online Newspaper Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 5 29

Official Newspaper of the United Democratic Party (UDP). The newspaper will be biased towards the UDP's viewpoint. (http://www.guardian.bz/)

 

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US Trade and Development Agency USTDA Government Website Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Weekly 8 71

Provides information on foreign aid provided by the US Government to foreign powers (www.ustda.gov)

World Bank World Bank Institutional Website Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Weekly 8 74

Provides research reports on the economy of Belize (http://search.worldbank.org/all?qterm=Belize)

Geography
@REMAXBelize Twitter Feed @REMAXBelize Online News Source Useful HUMINT 9:00 AM Daily 8 30

Twitter feed maintained the real estate company REMAX. Discusses issues with real estate prices, real estate sales, weather affecting real estate (http://twitter.com/#!/REMAXBelize) @tacogirl Twitter Feed @tacogirl: Geo Online News Source Not Useful HUMINT 9:00 AM Daily 6 31

Twitter feed from a expat living in San Pedro (http://twitter.com/#!/tacogirl)

Belize Ag Report Belize Ag Report Online News Source Not Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Monthly 8 33

Publication on agricultural events in Belize (http://www.belizeagreport.com/)

Coolirsi Cooliris Institutional Website Highly Useful IMINT 9:00 AM As Needed 9 35

The website has images of Belize's terrain and cities. (www.cooliris.com)

 

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Google Earth/Google Maps Google Earth Institutional Website Highly Useful IMINT 9:00 AM As Needed 10 36

Displays current satellite images of Belize. Google Earth is an installed piece of software and can be found at www.google.com/earth. Google Maps is the online counterpart found at (http://maps.google.com) La Vida Loca La Vida Loca: Germans: Geo Blog Not Useful HUMINT 9:00 AM Weekly 6 32

Blog by German Expats who have moved to Belize. There is a concern that the authors of the blog could shading their reports with a Euro-Centric view (http://goto-belize.blogspot.com/) The Weather Channel Weather.com Institutional Website Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 9 34

Provides reports on current and predicted weather for Belize. (www.weather.com)

Military
Belize Times Belize Times Online Newspaper Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 5 37

Official Newspaper of the People's United Party (PUP). One of the oldest newspapers in Belize. Source will be biased towards the PUP point of view. (http://www.belizetimes.bz/) GlobalSecurity.org Global Security Online News Source Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Weekly 8 40

Provides analysis on military news and events (www.GlobalSecurity.org)

Janes Janes:Military Research Center Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Monthly 10 38

Janes Sentinel Country Risk Review: Belize (www.janes.com)

 

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The (El) Guardian El Guardian Online Newspaper Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 5 39

Official Newspaper of the United Democratic Party (UDP). The newspaper will be biased towards the UDP's viewpoint. (http://www.guardian.bz/)

Political
@belize_chat Twitter Feed @belize_chat Online News Source Useful HUMINT 9:00 AM Daily 6 41

Twitter feed that aims to bring Belizeans together via chat (http://twitter.com/#!/belize_chat)

Amandala Online Amandala:Political Online Newspaper Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 8 43

Daily online newspaper in Belize reporting on Politics, Crime, Education, and Sports. The paper also offers editorial commentary (http://www.amandala.com.bz/) Belize Times Belize Times:Political Online Newspaper Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 5 44

Official Newspaper of the People's United Party (PUP). One of the oldest newspapers in Belize. Source will be biased towards the PUP point of view. (http://www.belizetimes.bz/) Embassy of Belize Website Embassy of Belize Government Website Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Weekly 7 45

The official web site of the Belize Embassy in Washington, DC (http://www.embassyofbelize.org/)

Janes Janes:Political Research Center Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Monthly 10 46

Janes Sentinel Country Risk Review: Belize (www.janes.com)

 

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KREM FM KREM FM in Belize City Online News Source Useful SIGINT 9:00 AM Daily 6 51

Provides a live webstream of music, news and information. Radio station is based in Belize City. (http://www.krembz.com/) Official Opposition Party Official Opposition:PUP Personal Interview Useful HUMINT 9:00 AM Once 5 42

I will email the official opposition party (PUP) for a comment on issues facing Belize. I do not have a great deal of confidence that I will receive a response in a timely fashion. People's United Party (PUP) Website PUP Government Website Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Weekly 5 47

Website of the official opposition party in the National Assembly. The site will be biased towards PUP's point of view. (http://www.pup.org.bz/) The (El) Guardian El Guardian Online Newspaper Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 5 48

Official Newspaper of the United Democratic Party (UDP). The newspaper will be biased towards the UDP's viewpoint. (http://www.guardian.bz/) The United Democratic Party (UDP) Website UDP Government Website Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Weekly 5 49

This is the website of the political party that currently holds power in Belize. It will be biased towards the UDP point of view. (http://www.udp.org.bz/) transparency.org Transparency Institutional Website Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM As Needed 9 50

Provides reports on corruption in various nations including Belize (www.transparency.org)

 

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Social
@belize_chat Twitter Feed @belize_chat Online News Source Useful HUMINT 9:00 AM Daily 6 52

Twitter feed that aims to bring Belizeans together via chat (http://twitter.com/#!/belize_chat)

@tacogirl Twitter Feed @tacogirl:Social Online News Source Not Useful HUMINT 9:00 AM Daily 6 53

Twitter feed from a expat living in San Pedro (http://twitter.com/#!/tacogirl)

Amandala Online Amandala Online Newspaper Highly Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 8 55

Daily online newspaper in Belize reporting on Politics, Crime, Education, and Sports. The paper also offers editorial commentary (http://www.amandala.com.bz/) Belize Ministry of Health Ministry of Health Government Website Not Useful Open Source 9:00 AM As Needed 7 61

Official Government Ministry website. Source may "gloss over" issues that portray Belize in a negative light (http://health.gov.bz/www/) Belize Times Belize Times Online Newspaper Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 5 56

Official Newspaper of the People's United Party (PUP). One of the oldest newspapers in Belize. Source will be biased towards the PUP point of view. (http://www.belizetimes.bz/) insight Crime insightcrime.org Research Center Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 9 57

Research organization focusing on organized crime issues in Central America. There are a few reports on crime issues in Belize. 9http://insightcrime.org/component/k2/itemlist/search?searchword=belize&x=0&y=0)

 

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La Vida Loca La Vida Loca:Germans:Social Blog Useful HUMINT 9:00 AM Weekly 6 54

Blog by German Expats who have moved to Belize. There is a concern that the authors of the blog could shading their reports with a Euro-Centric view (http://goto-belize.blogspot.com/) Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública Pan American Journal of Public Health Research Center Not Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Monthly 8 58

Journal of public health (Pan American Journal of Public Health) has many papers on public health issues in Belize (http://journal.paho.org/?s=Belize&searchbutton=Go!) The (El) Guardian El Guardian Online Newspaper Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Daily 5 59

Official Newspaper of the United Democratic Party (UDP). The newspaper will be biased towards the UDP's viewpoint. (http://www.guardian.bz/) UN Food and Agricultural Organization UN FAO Government Website Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Weekly 8 72

Provides reports on Food an Agricultural develops in Belize (http://www.fao.org/corp/google_result/en/?cx=018170620143701104933%3Aqq82jsfba7w&q=Belize&x=0 &y=0&cof=FORID%3A9&siteurl=www.fao.org%2F#940) World Health Organization WHO Research Center Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Monthly 8 60

Maintains data on disease and health in Belize. http://www.who.int/countries/blz/en/

Technology
Belize Electric Limited BEL Corporate Website Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Weekly 8 63

The official website of the Electric Company in Belize (http://www.bel.com.bz/)

 

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Belize Natural Entergy Ltd BNE Corporate Website Useful Open Source 9:00 AM As Needed 8 65

The website of the Natural Gas and Oil Company in Belize (http://www.belizenaturalenergy.bz/)

Belize Telemedia Limited BTL Government Website Useful Open Source 9:00 AM As Needed 8 64

The official website of the telephone company in Belize (http://www.belizetelemedia.net/)

Federation of American Scientists FAS Website Research Center Not Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Weekly 8 68

Contains useful articles on technological issues pertaining to Belize (http://www.fas.org/search/index.html?cx=011272476961064978591%3Alx1cammk60s&cof=FORID%3A1 1&q=Belize&siteurl=www.fas.org%2F#980) Treehouse City Guide Treehouse City Guide Online News Source Not Useful Open Source 9:00 AM As Needed 7 62

Website documenting electricity uses in Belize. Appears to be more geared for tourists (http://treehouse.ofb.net/go/en/voltage/Belize) UNESCO UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Government Website Not Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Weekly 8 70

Contains papers and article related to technology development in Belize. (http://www.unesco.org/new/en/customsearch/?cx=000136296116563084670%3Ah14j45a1zaw&cof=FORID%3A9&ie=UTFUNIDO UN Industrial Development Organization Government Website Not Useful Open Source 9:00 AM Weekly 8 69

Contains articles and papers related to industrial and technological development in Belize (http://www.google.com/cse?cx=015092308215149726697%3Ae_g5pohcjou&q=belize&sa=Search&cof=F ORID%3A0)

 

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Annex: 3 Link Analysis  
Executive Summary: Belize is likely to be stable in 24 months based on the link analysis methodology. Belizean gangs have a high degree of centrality in Belize due to most Belizeans having been affected by gang related violence. Lord Michael Ashcroft possesses a high degree of betweenness due to his business interests in Belize, shaping relations with the UK, and his involvement with the current Prime Minister of Belize and with the Conservative Party in the UK. The US has a high degree of closeness with Belize due to the aid provided to the Belize Defense Force (BDF) and the Belize Coast Guard to combat drug traffickers who use the country as a drug transshipment point. Discussion: Belizean street gangs have a high degree of centrality in Belize since most members of society are affected by gang violence. Since 2003 Belize’s murder rate has risen from 22 murders per 100,0001 to 41 murders per 100,0002 which is the sixth highest in the world, fifth highest in the Western Hemisphere. The increase in murder is associated with the increased use of Belize as a drug transshipment point. Mexican and Columbian drug cartels use the local gangs as “security” for drug Figure 3.1: smuggling activities. The cartels pay local Displays the relationship of drug trafficking, local gangs in cocaine and marijuana rather gangs and increasing violence in Belize Source: i2 Analyst Notebook than cash. The gangs will sell the “product” to convert it to cash. This creates rivalry among the gangs, which contributes to the growth in violence. This is highly likely to be a destabilizing factor in Belize, however, it is unlikely to affect the overall stability of the country. Lord Michael Ashcroft possesses a high degree of betweenness due to his business interests in Belize and his involvement with the Prime Minister of Belize, the Official Opposition Party of Belize, the Conservative Party in the UK, and the House of Lords in the British Parliament. Lord Ashcroft, through his ownership of Belize Holdings, controls interests in Belize Bank, citrus farms, ship registration, real estate, and until 2009 Belize Telemedia Ltd. Belize Bank controls 42% of the loan portfolio and 37% of the deposits in Belize. It is the largest financial institution operating in Belize3. Lord Ashcroft is a former law client of the Prime Minister, Dean Barrow4, and Ashcroft has donated to the current Belize Opposition Party (People’s United Party) in the past5. The Prime Minister of Belize has stated in parliament that Lord Ashcroft is likely worth more than the GDP of Belize and he should not be crossed. Lord Ashcroft is a life peer and sits on the Conservative Party bench in the UK House of Lords. He has

 

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  in the past donated significant sums of money to the UK Conservative Party6. Lord Ashcroft is likely to be a stabilizing figure in Belize as long as he continues to own significant assets in Belize. It is somewhat likely the UK will support Belize so that an ennobled life peer will not lose his significant investment portfolio. The US has a high degree of closeness with Belize due to the aid provided to the Belize Defense Force and the Belize Coast Guard to combat drug   traffickers. Since 2008 the US has provided Belize about 15 million (USD) in security assistance, including boats and other vehicles, communications gear and training programs7. The aid provided by the US to Belize is likely to be a stabilizing factor since the US has a strong interest eliminating the use of Belize as a drug transshipment point.
Image 3.1: Michael Ashcroft, The Lord Ashcroft Source: guardian.co.uk

Discussion: The sources for the link analysis are reliable. A combination of official government data sources and news sources inside and outside of the target country were used. Sources were updated as new information became available. It was difficult to determine the intentions of the UK Government with regards to Lord Ashcroft. This required an appraisal of the situation based on the influence Lord Ashcroft wields in the UK Government.   Source Reliability: 8 Analytic Confidence: 7                                                                                                                        
1 2 3 4 5 6 http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=UNODC&f=tableCode%3A1 http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/Homicide/Homicide_level.xlsx http://www.bcbholdings.com/corporate-profile/belize-bank.html http://www.7newsbelize.com/sstory.php?nid=17920 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/395318.stm

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/7368094/Lord-Ashcroft-cleared-of-breaching-electoral-law-with5.1m-Tory-donations.html 7 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/americas/mexican-drug-cartels-reach-into-tinybelize/2011/09/28/gIQA4lxzbL_story.html  

 

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Annex: 4 Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) Analysis  
Executive Summary: Belize is likely to be stable in the next 24 months based on the IPB Methodology. The key factors contributing to stability are the difficult terrain that is comprised of thick jungle, swampy lowlands, barrier reef islands, and mountains. The jungle, swamps, and mountains create a natural barrier that would be difficult for foreign ground forces to navigate. The barrier reef islands create obstacles for a sea approach by a foreign navy. Finally, the Belize Defense Forces (BDF) ground bases are positioned along the key avenues of approach allowing the BDF to conduct a defensive campaign. Discussion: No go zones of Belize are generally located in Southern Belize due to the Maya Mountains and dense jungle coverage. An Figure 4.1: Natural Barriers and BDF bases along invading military would likely not conduct key avenues of approach. operations in the area. The jungle also offers Source: Google Earth substantial coverage for the BDF to conduct Legend: counter-offensive operations. The Maya Mountain area in Southern Belize has very few BDF Base: Major Roads: passable roads that a foreign military could use to move through the region. The only areas of No Go: Slow Go:       interest in the southern no go regions would be the Vaca1 and Chalillo Hydroelectric Plant2 located along the Mopan River, as well as the Hydro Maya Limited Hydroelectric Plant on the Rio Grande River east of the town of San Miguel3. The no go regions that are located in Northern Belize and along the Caribbean Coast are generally characterized by thick jungle and swamps. The area possesses very few passable roads that a foreign military would need if they were to invade Belize. It would be unlikely a foreign military would conduct operations in the Northern Belize no go areas. The barrier reef off Belize’s coast in the Caribbean Sea iso a no go area for a foreign navy. It is unlikely a foreign navy would attempt to conduct an invasion of Belize by sea due to the limited avenues of approach and the obstacles created by the barrier reef islands. Slow go areas of Belize are generally located in Northern Belize and around population centers. A foreign military invading Belize would likely be able to get through these areas albeit slowly. The slow go areas of Belize are generally described by the swampy lowlands prone to flooding with roads that are generally not suitable for moving large equipment.

 

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  BDF Ground Force Bases are positioned along the limited number of avenues of approaches that exist in Belize. The placement of the BDF Ground Force bases make it likely the military will be able to act quickly if a foreign power attempts an invasion. The BDF has limited equipment4 in its order of battle to sustain a long or significant operation against a foreign power invading Belize. The BDF will use the jungles, swamps and mountains of Belize to conduct a guerilla campaign until the UK can deploy troops to assist5. The locations of BDF Ground Force bases indicate that Belize is concerned about protecting national sovereignty and confronting narcotics trafficking6. It is highly unlikely that the BDF is positioned in a manner to allow the government to exercise rigid controls over the population.
Image 4.1: Price Barrack BDF Ground Base, Ladyville, Belize Source: http://edition.channel5belize.com/arc hives/61890  

Comments: The author used the freely available version of Google Earth to undertake this analysis. With the exception of urban areas most of the satellite imagery was of poor quality. This made it difficult to identify some key features. Using other freely available sources and Jane’s Sentinel Country Assessment the author was able to locate features, landmarks, and order of battle. The IPB Image presented in Annex 4a does not show hospitals, communications, bridges, and small airports. These items were removed to enhance the readability of the image presented.

Source Reliability: 8 Analytic Confidence: 8                                                                                                                                
1 2 3 4 5 http://www.bnamericas.com/news/electricpower/Becol_set_to_begin_Vaca_hydro_plant_operations http://sanpedrosun.net/old/06-043.html http://edition.channel5belize.com/archives/14198 Sentinel Country Risk Assessment, December 2, 2009, HEADLINE: World Armies, Belize: Equipment in Service

 

Sentinel Country Risk Assessment, December 2, 2009, HEADLINE: World Armies, Belize: “A determined invasion could only be repelled with the help of allies; a containing strategy is based upon delaying invaders through a determined jungle guerrilla campaign until reinforcements could be deployed from the UK.” 6 Sentinel Country Risk Assessment, December 2, 2009, HEADLINE: World Armies, Belize: “The army is generally efficient but its small size would limit its ability to cope with major narcotics smuggling operations.”  

 

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Annex: 4a IPB Image  

 

 

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Annex: 5 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)
Executive Summary: It is likely that Belize will be stable in the next 24 months based on the ACH Methodology. The largest factors contributing to stability include political and military factors. Belize has a strong history with representative democracy. It is unlikely that the party currently in power will attempt to maintain power or the opposition party will attempt to take power by undemocratic means in the next two years. Relations with the UK and US are stable with both nations providing significant aid and support to Belize. It is unlikely the relations will significantly deteriorate in the next 24 months. Belize’s recently ratified ninth constitutional amendment which limits court challenges to certain actions taken by parliament is unlikely to be a source of instability in the next 24 months.
Figure  5.1:   Stability  has  a  lower  “Inconsistency  per   Discussion: Hypothesis”  score;  therefore  Belize  is   The strong democratic traditions in Belize likely  to  be  stable  in  24  months.   and membership in the British Commonwealth Source:  PARC  ACH  2.0.5   are likely to ensure stability over the next 24 months. Belize is a parliamentary democracy with Queen Elizabeth II as the Head-of-State. The Belize Constitution mandates that Elizabeth II must appoint a Governor-General who is a Belize citizen to be her representative in Belize1. The Belize Constitution guarantees universal suffrage, presumption of innocence in a criminal trial, freedom of religion, and freedom of speech. Since Belize gained independence from the UK in 1981, whenever a transition of power has occurred between the two major parties, it has always occurred peacefully2. Adding to Belize’s democratic tradition is the view by local residents that they generally consider their local governments to be fair and open3. According to Jane’s Sentinel Security assessment the next round of elections scheduled for 2013 are not expected to provoke major social or political controversies. Recently, the ninth amendment to the Belize constitution was ratified. The amendment limits court challenges to certain laws passed by parliament. It is highly unlikely over the next 24 months parliament will use the ninth amendment to co-opt the democratic process that has been in place.

 

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  Belize’s long and extensive relationship with the UK is likely to support stability over the next 24 months. Belize is a member of the British Commonwealth. As a member of the Commonwealth Belize has committed itself, along with other Commonwealth members, to the Commonwealth’s Declaration of Principles. Included in the principles are a commitment to equal rights for all citizens, rights of citizens to participate in the democratic process and promotion of the rule of law4. As previously mentioned, Belize recognizes Elizabeth II as Head-of-State, this fact alone provides the UK a reason to be interested in the Figure  5.2:   The  lower  the  “Inconsistency  per   stability of Belize. Enlisted personnel in the Belize Hypothesis”  the  stronger  the   Defense Force (BDF) receive their basic training in contributing  factor  to  stability.   Belize. Officers, senior non-commissioned officers Source:  PARC  ACH  2.0.5   (NCOs) and specialists are trained in the UK. Many BDF officers graduate from the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and attend specialized training at the Warminster Training Center in the UK.5 In late 2010 the UK Government announced that it would begin a downsizing at the British Army Training Support Unit Belize (BATSUB) as part of a cost cutting effort during 20116. The downsizing will affect the helicopter support Belize currently receives. It is unlikely the BATSUB downsizing will significantly impact stability in Belize over the next 24 months. The direct foreign aid Belize receives from the US is likely to support stability over the next 24 months. The US Military Liaison Office (MLO) working with the BDF provided the necessary funding to establish the Belize Coast Guard in 20057. The US Government also provided a 300,000 USD donation to the Belize Coast Guard in 2011 to help combat drug traffickers operating off the Belize coast8. On November 2, 2011 the US made another donation to the Belize Coast Guard. The donation has been valued at 8 million USD and consists of two Boston Whaler Outrage Justice Series boats, two SAFE Defender Class Boats, two Ford F-550 Trucks, and a 40-foot container of spare parts9. Comments: The decision maker should be aware that the weight of the evidence entered into the PARC ACH software is based solely on the opinion of the author of this document. The decision maker may have opinions on the weighting that differs from the author and therefore may draw a different conclusion than the author. The author made every effort possible to ensure credible and relevant evidence was used in this analysis to ensure a reliable outcome of the ACH analysis was produced. Source Reliability: 8 Analytic Confidence: 8                                                                                                                        
1 2 3 4 http://pdba.georgetown.edu/Constitutions/Belize/belize81.html#mozTocId43038 http://www.global-travel.co.uk/aboutbelize.htm http://belize1.com/BzLibrary/trust436.html http://www.thecommonwealth.org/Templates/Internal.asp?NodeID=32987

 

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5 Sentinel Country Assessment, December 9, 2010, Headline: ARMY, Belize: “Officer candidates are sent to some of the best military institutions in the world. Many BDF officers graduate from the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst in the UK and the US Army Academy at West Point, attending specialized training at Fort Benning, Georgia in the US and Warminster Training Centre in the UK. Training alternates between the UK and US, with staff courses in Camberley (UK) as well as commanders' courses and basic officer courses alternating between Sandhurst and West Point.” 6 http://www.amandala.com.bz/index.php?id=10677 7 http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/1955.htm 8 http://edition.channel5belize.com/archives/55336   9  http://www.guardian.bz/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3977:coast-guard-receives-8m-equipmentfrom-the-us&catid=40:politics&Itemid=90  

 

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Annex: 5a Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Chart  

 
 

25  

 

 

 

26  

 

 

 

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30  

 

 

 

31  

 

 

Annex: 5b Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Chart

 

 

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Annex: 6 Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Analysis

Belize is likely to seek additional US aid to combat drug trafficking in the next 12 to 24 months
Executive Summary:
It is likely that the Government of Belize (GOB) will seek additional aid to combat drug trafficking from the United States (US) in the next 12 to 24 months. It is unlikely that a request for additional aid will strain the Belize/US relationship given the strong public support the international community (including the US) has given for aid. It is likely that aid provided by the US will target known shortcomings in Belize’s ability to patrol its coastline, track flights over its airspace and intercept electronic communications of drug traffickers.

Requirement:
How will the Government of Belize likely respond to the increased use of the country as a transshipment point by drug traffickers in the next 12 to 24 months?

Possible Courses of Action (COA):
COA1 COA2 COA3 COA4 COA5 COA6 The GOB will negotiate with local gangs to reduce their involvement with drug trafficking The GOB will seek additional aid from the United States to combat trafficking The GOB will work with other Central American and Caribbean governments to coordinate anti-drug trafficking plans The GOB will establish a national drug treatment program The GOB will allow the Mexican and Columbian drug traffickers to operate in Belize for monetary considerations The GOB will do nothing

Screening Criteria: • COA must contribute to reducing the use of the country as a drug transshipment point • COA must appear to the public that the GOB is “taking action” to combat drug trafficking Remaining Courses of Action (after screening):
COA1 COA2 COA3 The GOB will negotiate with local gangs to reduce their involvement with drug trafficking The GOB will seek additional aid from the United States to combat trafficking The GOB will work with other Central American and Caribbean governments to coordinate anti-drug trafficking plans

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Evaluation Criteria:
Eval1 Is there popular support for the COA? Newspaper & Blog Commentary: 3: Supportive 2: Neither Supportive nor Unsupportive 0: Unsupportive PM and Majority Support: 2: Both PM and Majority Support 1: Either PM or Majority Support 0: Neither PM or Majority Support International Community Commentary: 2: Publically supportive 1: No public comments 0: Publically unsupportive BDF and Police Support: 2: Supportive 1: Neither Supportive nor Unsupportive 0: Unsupportive

Eval2

Does parliament support the COA?

Eval3

Will the international community support the COA?

Eval4

Will the Belize Defense Force (BDF) and the Police Support the COA?

Matrix:
How will the Government of Belize likely respond to the increased use of the country as a transshipment point by drug traffickers in the next 12 to 24 months? Eval1 Popular Support Eval2 Parliamentary Support Eval3 Int’l Support Eval4 Military and Police Support Total

COA1: Negotiate with local gangs COA2: Seek additional aid COA3: Coordinate activity with other nations

0 3 2

1 2 2

11 2 2

2 2 2

4 9 8

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Sources:
COA1 Eval1 http://www.belizetimes.bz/2011/09/09/hard-hitting/ http://edition.channel5belize.com/archives/60505 http://www.nationalperspectivebz.org/index.php?option=com_content&view= article&id=508:pm-barrow-cries-gang-extortion&catid=53:headstories&Itemid=77 http://ourbelize.net/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=2753 http://edition.channel5belize.com/archives/61613 http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/62276/peter-r-neumann/negotiatingwith-terrorists Same as COA1/Eval1 and COA/Eval2 http://www.npr.org/2011/10/29/141808741/small-and-isolated-belize-attractsdrug-traffickers Same as COA2/Eval1 http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11289/1182232-820.stm?cmpid=nationworld.xml Same as COA2/Eval2 http://www.army.mil/article/38605/U_S__Army__039_s_elite_train_Belizean_ Forces_in_effort_to_build_partnership__military_capacity_to_de/ Lack of public commentary can be interpreted as not being supportive nor unsupportive http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved= 0CC0QFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cicad.oas.org%2FFortalecimiento_I nstitucional%2Feng%2FSummit Declarations%2FSUMMIT DECLARATIONing.doc&ei=wMmxTpaAEpCasgKn5c3VAQ&usg=AFQjCNE-j3fQ5dB2 http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved= 0CDMQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cicad.oas.org%2Fmem%2Freports %2F4%2FFull_Eval%2FBelize - Fourth Round ENG.pdf&ei=8cuxTtuVOOnCsQL7rLnbAQ&usg=AFQjCNG4zwZABrK6iLMOecrDXy http://www.caricom.org/jsp/pressreleases/press_releases_2011/pres396_11. jsp http://www.dialogoamericas.com/en_GB/articles/rmisa/features/regional_news/2011/04/26/feat ure-ex-2110 Same as COA3/Eval1

Eval2 Eval3 Eval4 Eval1 Eval2

COA2

Eval3 Eval4 COA3 Eval1 Eval2

Eval3

Eval4

                                                                                                                       
1 The Official policy of most democratically elected governments is that they will never negotiate with terrorists or criminal gangs. Therefore, it can be reasoned that the international community will not be supportive of negotiations.

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Annex: 7 Analyst Contact Information

David R. Krauza
Graduate Student/Analyst Department of Intelligence Studies Mercyhurst College 2633 E. 44th Street Erie, Pennsylvania 16510 (814) 397-9610 dkrauz25@lakers.mercyhurst.edu

 

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