From a multi-decade perspective, the Chinese yuan or an Asian currency unit that is centred on the yuan will

almost certainly become a major reserve and international currency one day. But for the yuan to supplant the dollar as the hegemonic reserve currency in the world within the next decade, China will need to "do everything right" and America will need to "do everything wrong". While the former seems likely, the latter is unlikely, at least not within the next decade. The experience of the last 10 years taught us not to under-estimate the Chinese; the experience of the last 100 years taught us not to under-estimate the Americans.

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful