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Interim Guide on Identifying Prioritising and Treating Hazardous Locations on Roads in Malaysia - JKR 20708-0022-95

Interim Guide on Identifying Prioritising and Treating Hazardous Locations on Roads in Malaysia - JKR 20708-0022-95

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JKR 20708-0022-95

Interim Guide On Identifing, Prioritising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia
7.0m 5.0m

Roads Branch Public Works Department Malaysia Jalan Sultan Salahuddin 50582 Kuala Lumpur

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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia

FOREWORD
Road accidents have now become a major concern in Malaysia. The latest accident figures from the Royal Malaysia Police show that the numbers have increased by 23% and 15% over the last two years alone, with 135,995 cases recorded for 1993. Malaysia's rapid economic growth may be partly responsible for this worrying trend as the country is currently seeing registered vehicles increase by over 7 % per year. In order to sustain high rates of economic growth, utilisation of the skills of our people is of paramount importance, and the nation can ill afford to waste such valuable resources in road accidents. Many would argue that to minimise human suffering in any way possible is sufficient justification in itself to devote greater efforts to reducing the road accident casualty toll. Realising this, the Government set a reduction target in 1991 to reduce road accident fatalities by 30 per cent by the year 2000 with 1989 chosen as the base year. To achieve this target, all relevant Government Departments and Agencies need to contribute to this effort. The approach to be taken follows the 3 E's concept: Engineering, Education and Enforcement. Jabatan Kerja Raya (JKR) being the main Engineering arm of the Government can play a major role in this respect. In line with this, Institut Kerja Raya Malaysia (IKRAM) has undertaken a road safety research programme in collaboration with the Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) of the Unite Kingdom. As part of this initiative, IKRAM is now able to provide a reference guide for use by all practising road engineers in Malaysia. I am very pleased to be able to introduce this document, entitled Interim Guide on Identifying, Prioritising and Treating Hazardous Locations on Roads in Malaysia and am grateful to the Overseas Development Administration, U.K. for their contribution to the funding of this project. This interim guide provides information specifically for Malaysia and sets out a standard methodology for analysing accident data to help identify the most hazardous locations, select appropriate remedial measures, and evaluate this action. It is my hope that this Guide will be useful to all who are involved in the road safety field, helping them to channel limited resources in a more efficient manner, and thereby ensuring that our road network is as safe as it can possibly be made.

(Tan Sri Dato’ Ir Wan A Rahman Yaacob) Director General of Public Works Jabatan Kerja Raya Malaysia 1995

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This Guide has been prepared within the Road Safety Group of the Institut Kerja Raya Malaysia (IKRAM) in association with the Transport Research Laboratory (TRL), United Kingdom. The author of the Guide is: Mr. Chris Baguley TRL.

As its intended users are all road authority engineers in Malaysia, the Guide was reviewed at various stages of its production by the following representative Committee: Ir. Mohamed Shafii Mustafa IKRAM -Chairman Pn. Subiah Sulaiman IKRAM -Secretary Pn. Norliah Saidin Highway Planning Unit, Min.of Pub Works Ass. Prof. Radin U R Sohadi Universiti Pertanian Malaysia P/PPP Ruslan b. Khalid Polis Di Raja Malaysia PPP Ooi In Boo Polis Di Raja Malaysia Ir. Sabudin Mohd Salleh Dewan Bandaraya Kuala Lumpur En. Sanusi b. Ismail Jabatan Kerja Raya Daerah, Hulu Langat and representatives from Jabatan Perumahan & Kerajaan Tempatan; Majlis Keselamatan Jalan Raya; and Cawangan Jalan, Jabatan Kerja Raya. The author is indebted to the above committee members for their valuable contributions, and to En. Othman Hussin of IKRAM for his assistance in preparing some of the material. Gratitude is also extended to Doncaster Metropolitan Borough Council and Berkshire County Council/Babtie Group for permission to reproduce parts of their Road Safety Plans, and to the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents (UK) for various extracts from their Road Safety Engineering Manual. Finally, the author would also like to express his gratitude to the Director General of Public Works Malaysia for his permission to publish the Guide.

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CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION
1.1 PURPOSE AND SCOPE
This Guide is intended for use by traffic engineers and road safety officers in the Public Works Department (JKR), Ministry of Transport (MoT), and all Local Authorities of Malaysia. It has been estimated that about 350,000 people die in road accidents in developing countries each year. This represents 70 per cent of those killed on the roads throughout the world. In Malaysia there are about 4,500 fatalities and over 36,500 injured per year. This means that more than 1 person in every 450 of the country will suffer injury or death in a road accident each year. This situation is worsening, and traditionally the "three E's" have invariably been quoted when discussing ways of tackling the problem namely Education, Enforcement and Engineering A fourth "E", Encouragement (by setting targets, support for initiatives, publicity material to promote positive attitudes, etc) has now also been added. Although the most effective approach for many road safety initiatives will be a combination of these elements, it is the Engineering approaches on which this Guide is focused. It is likely that some aspect of highway design, layout, state of road or traffic control is a contributory factor in most accident occurrence. It is well established that considerable safety benefits may result from the application of appropriate road engineering or traffic management measures at hazardous road locations. In order to reduce accidents effectively and help to achieve the nationally set reduction targets, it is essential that a systematic approach to the identification of hazards and selection of appropriate treatments be carried out at the local level throughout the
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country. This Guide is designed to be an easytoassimilate outline of procedures that have been found to be effective in many countries of the world. It is hoped that this is achieved in as concise a manner as possible, and it is therefore recommended that for more in-depth discussions of the various topics the reader should make use of the References listed. Indeed the Guide has been based on several of these publications, particularly the Indonesian Accident Investigation Procedures Manual, the Institution of Highways and Transportation (UK) Guidelines for Accident Reduction and Prevention2, UK Department of Transport's Accident Investigation Manual3, and RoSPA Road Safety Engineering Manual4. 1:1.1 Summary of contents Chapter I as an introduction, highlights the scale of the accident problem of Malaysia and introduces the types of strategies generally applied in many other countries to reduce accidents. The national accident reduction target is quoted and the need to manage road safety stressed. Chapter II is devoted to the accident database of Malaysia, its production, and the responsibilities of all those agencies contributing to its content. The third and subsequent chapters include a step-by-step approach (totalling 10 steps) to tackling the safety problems within a road authority's area. These steps are illustrated in the flow chart shown in Fig. 1.1. The three steps of Chapter III comprise the investigation process. A list of the worst blackspot sites needs to be produced first from the computerised database. Preliminary analysis is described and early initial site visits are also recommended.
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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia points in the network. For example, even at a “high risk” junction in Malaysia having 42,000 vehicles (16-hour count) passing through it and where 53 accidents occurred in one year with 10 involving injury, the actual accident occurrence rate is still relatively low. These accidents occurred during about 18,300,000 vehicle movements. That is, one damage-only accident every 425,000 movements and one injury accident every 1,830,000 movements. The precise moment when an accident will occur can never be predicted, and even if long periods such as a year are considered the numbers will fluctuate randomly about a longer term average. Statistical tests can show whether, during one particular ‘high’ year, a real change has occurred. The occurrence of accidents along the network tends to be less random as accidents are often clustered at so-called "hazardous locations" or "blackspots".

Chapter IV (Steps 4 and 5) deals with diagnosis of the problems, including the collection of sketch diagrams and other available data together with the likely need to carry out specific site studies. Detecting accident patterns (a skill to be acquired) is introduced. The two steps (6 and 7) of Chapter V are concerned with the selection of possible countermeasures and prioritising both these and the sites to be treated. Lists of the most common problems and treatments are included. A method of carrying out costbenefit estimates to assist in the decisionmaking process for the most effective measures is also described. Chapter VI discusses the implementation stage (Step 8), that is detailed design and installation, briefly, and emphasises the need for safety audits and for carrying out all roadworks as safely as possible. The final two steps (9 and 10) in Chapter VII cover evaluation of the completed works. Some observational measurements for monitoring the sites are described in brief. Simple statistical techniques are outlined to estimate the size of the effect of the measures introduced. All necessary statistical tables are contained in the Appendices, as are examples of the Police POL27 accident report form and UK Road Safety Plans (see 1:5.1).

1:2 WHAT IS A ROAD ACCIDENT?
A full definition of a road traffic accident is: "a rare, random, multi factor event always preceded by a situation in which one or more road users have failed to cope with their environment, resulting in a collision on the public highway which should be recorded by the police". Although, from the previous section, it may be concluded that road accidents are far too common in Malaysia (see Section 1:5), they are comparatively rare events at specific
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There is rarely an accident situation in which only one "thing" or person is truly the sole cause of the accident: hence accidents are multi-factor events. There are three basic categories of factors: Road user errors

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Road and environment faults Vehicle defects It has been shown that road user errors are by far the most prevalent factor but often another factor(s) is present. For example, “adverse environment” implies a situation where a driver has had difficulty manoeuvring a vehicle safely; drivers are frequently provided with insufficient or unclear information with respect to signs and markings; sometimes poor design can cause a driver to have a misleading visual impression; and occasionally defective tyres and brakes can contribute significantly to an accident occurring. The chain of events leading up to an accident include people’s experiences on that day which can lead to stress or lack of adequate concentration on the driving task, and ultimately mean that one or more persons failed to cope with their environment. An assessment of the factors in the chain could indicate which road and environment factors may benefit from safety engineering remedial measures. Consider the example of a junction where skidding on a wet road surface has been recorded in several accidents by the police. Care in analysis is needed as an inexperienced investigator may immediately recommend that the skid resistance of road surfaces on the approaches to the junction need to be upgraded. Careful study of the site (during similar conditions), however, may reveal that tree branches weighed down by rainwater tend to obscure road signs and advance warning signs. The drivers thus failed to cope primarily because of obscured signs rather than the wet road surface itself. Treating the road surface may still be necessary but would be much less effective if the trees were not cut back or the signs not re-sited for improved visibility.

1:3 APPROACHES TO IMPROVING ROAD SAFETY
The main objective of improving road safety through road engineering and traffic management simply means measures taken primarily to avoid some accidents happening in the future, or at the very least, reducing the severity of future accidents. This may be achieved by following two distinct approaches: (i) (ii) ACCIDENT PREVENTION ACCIDENT REDUCTION

ACCIDENT PREVENTION Involves the application of safety principles in the planning, design, upgrading and maintenance of roads. (See ref 5: The safety audit of highways). ACCIDENT REDUCTION Involves the application of appropriate road engineering or traffic management schemes at hazardous locations on the existing road network. Such applications, particularly those of relatively low-cost, at known high accident locations or “blackspot” have yielded very high returns in many of the more industrialised countries of the world. Although accident prevention plays an extremely important role in maintaining a safe environment, this Guide concentrates on accident reduction and is aimed at engineers and technicians who have responsibility for safety on the existing road network. It is recommended that for more information about accident prevention the reader refer to ref.6: ‘Towards safer roads in developing countries - a guide for planners and engineers’.

1:4 THE FOUR BASIC STRATEGIES
The four basic strategies for accident reduction through the use of countermeasures are:

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Single sites/Blackspots the treatment of specific types of accident at a single location [Eg. usually junctions, but could be areas 200-400m in diameter, 300-500m stretches of road] Mass action schemes The application of a remedy to locations with a common accident problem. [Eg. skidding on wet road surface, head-on collisions, excessive speed approaching roundabouts] Route action plans The application of remedies along a route with a high accident rate. Area-wide schemes The application of various treatments over a wide area of town/city. [Eg. including traffic management and traffic calming (speed reducing devices) in areas bounded by links on a network, housing areas or l km squares having higher accidents than a preset level]. Blackspot treatment is likely to be the most
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effective and straightforward as a starting point, the road authority perhaps moving to the other wider types of application as experience is built up. All these strategies rely on the availability of data which contains full information about accidents and their locations so that common features which have contributed to the accidents can be identified. Accident data and the use of collision and stick diagrams, key analysis tools for the traffic engineer, are discussed in Chapters II and III.

1:5 SAFETY MANAGEMENT
One of the most effective initiatives in improving safety has been found to be the setting of realistic accident reduction targets around which all authorities can properly plan reduction programmes. In 1991 the Government of Malaysia set a national target:- to reduce the number of fatalities resulting from road accidents by 30 per cent by the year 2000. This was based on the year 1989 which means, in practise, a reduction from 3773 to 2641 deaths per year (fig. 1.3).
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This was expressed by the special Cabinet Committee for Road Safety in 1990 in terms of a fatality rate reduction from 7.12 down to 3.14 deaths per 10,000 vehicles registered to be achieved by the year 2000. The somewhat larger percentage reduction expressed in the form of fatality rate is due to the fact that this takes some account of the fairly substantial, steady increase in vehicular traffic in Malaysia. The assumption was that of continuing linear growth in the number of vehicles registered as that experienced during the past ten years. (see fig. 1.4). It can be seen from fig. 1.3 that there is a generally increasing trend in deaths which is particularly marked in more recent years. This disturbing feature makes it more important than ever for all authorities to work hard to achieve their particular target. Although aimed at fatalities, it is likely that the accident countermeasures employed will also help to reduce the levels of severely injured casualties. Safety management should allow the
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national target (which needs to be disaggregated into State and local targets) to be reflected in safety initiatives for each local area. For example, Fig. 1.5, from the U.K.’s Institution of Highways & Transportation’s (IHT) road safety guidelines, illustrates the large number of policy initiatives which can be input into each local area scheme, ie. the integrated approach where agencies need to co-operate in agreeing targets and plans, and need to monitor the effects of the safety work. 1:5.1 Road Safety Plans It is recommended that each highway authority produces an annual Road Safety Plan in which the local casualty reduction target is stated and a strategy for achieving the targets is developed. Sample contents of some annual Plans published in the U.K. are included in Appendix A. Before producing such a document, the following will be required:

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Review of existing highways and transportation policy Investigation of accident trends for various road user groups in the authority’s geographical area knowledge of the working structure of the authority (relationship between departments, committees external agencies concerned with safety). The key to success lies in setting a series of achievable casualty reduction targets (short and long-term) that can be monitored, and being able to acquire the increased resources that will inevitably be required. The Plan should include: Background to the road accident situation in the authority area (accident trends with respect to road user groups, road features etc) Aims of the Plan (casualty reduction targets)
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Summary of proposals planned (including major capital schemes, smaller remedial engineering work, safety audit, maintenance, costs, relationships with other agencies, safety publicity, traffic law enforcement) Methods for monitoring and evaluation Report of previous year's work and effect on accidents The Plan should be a comprehensive document containing photpgraphs, graphs and figures and should be made available to the public.

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REFERENCES
1. TRANSPORT AND ROAD RESEARCH LABORATORY. Interim manual on accident investigation procedures and the development of low-cost engineering improvement schemes. TRRL, Pusat Litbang Jalan, Ministry of Public Works Indonesia, Jalan Raya Timur No. 264, Bandung - 1993. INSTITUTION OF HIGHWAYS AND TRANSPORTATION. Highway safety guidelines: accident reduction and prevention. International edition. IHT, 3 Lygon Place, Ebury Street, SWIW OJS, London - 1990. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT. Accident Investigation Manual. Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents, Cannon House, The Priory Queensway, B4 6BS, Birmingham - 1986. ROYAL SOCIETY FOR THE PREVENTION OF ACCIDENTS. Road safety engineering manual. RoSPA, Cannon House, The Priory Queensway, B4 6BS, Birmingham - 1992. INSTITUTION OF HIGHWAYS AND TRANSPORTATION. Guidelines for: the safety audit of highways. IHT, 3 Lygon Place, Ebury Street, SWlW OJS, London - 1990. TRANSPORT & ROAD RESEARCH LABORATORY. Towards safer roads in developing countries: a guide for planners and engineers. TRRL & Oversea’s Development Admin., Old Wokingham Road, RG11 6AU, Crowthorne - 1991.

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CHAPTER II ACCIDENT DATA
2.0 INTRODUCTION
An essential element of any accident reduction and prevention strategy is the collection and investigation of road accident data. Accident investigation procedures in the context of this Guide depend on the existence of a reliable database. This chapter outlines the database which is now being established in Malaysia with the microcomputer system that can be used for analysing this data. several pages are repeated (for reasons given below): see copy of the form included in Appendix B. The first page contains some brief general instructions on filling in the form, though full instructions are contained in a separate booklet (Panduan Mengisi Borang POL271). Data entry begins on page 2 which includes information of a general nature, such as the police station, accident reference number, time and date of the accident, number of vehicles and casualties, road type and condition, road geometry, collision type, weather and lighting conditions, etc. This page also contains a small section for information on the closest kilometre post to the accident. This important page of the POL27 form is repeated twice (on pages 3 & 4) such that carbon paper can be inserted to produce copies for the Police District and also the local JKR office or local government department (see Section 2:3). The second main page (page no. 5) provides space for details of the vehicles involved in the accident including their type, model registration number, damage suffered, defects, and their movement prior to the collision. The details of the vehicle’s driver or rider are also included on this page. These include his or her age, sex, licence, injury (if any), whether any driving errors were made and whether they were wearing a seat belt or crash helmet. This page of the form is repeated for up to three vehicles involved in the accident with an additional carbon copy of each for the Police District. If more than three vehicles are involved then the reporting officer simply needs to attach additional pages, as necessary. The next new page (page 11) deals with any passengers or pedestrians involved in the accident, where again
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2:1 PRODUCTION OF THE ACCIDENT DATABASE
All accident data originates with the recording of details by the police either at the scene of an accident or as subsequently reported to them at the local police station by those involved. There will inevitably be a substantial number of road accidents that are not reported to the police at all. The accident details are first recorded in the police officer’s notebook and a simple record is made in the 24-hour incident book at the police station in which a unique reference number is assigned to the accident. If human injury has occurred and/or a prosecution is likely, an accident investigation file is opened, again having a reference number. This contains all documents associated with the accident, eg. witness statements, photographs, description and sketch diagram of the scene as found by the police reporting officer. This file is required in the law courts in the event of a prosecution. The traffic accident report form, POL27 (Pin. 1/91), is a pre-printed standard form and is the basis of all computerised data. It is also completed by the police accident reporting officer. The form comprises 15 pages, though
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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia recording the coding for both systems for each accident also serves as a cross-check on the accident location (it has been found elsewhere that errors are often made in the recording of grid coordinates). Roads in Malaysia are one of five categories: i) Expressway (Toll) ii) Federal iii) State iv) Urban v) Other (District Council or private) 2:2.1 Rural Areas For rural roads (types i,ii,iii or v above), kilometre posts should be used as the network coding system. The Police reporting officer should estimate the position of the accident (to the nearest 100m) from the closest kilometre post. On Expressways this task is made easier as 100m posts have also been installed. The national grid coordinate system should be included on all maps used such that the position of the accident can be read off easily. 2:2.2 Urban Areas For urban areas (types iv or v above), a Node system needs to be devised where each major road junction is given a unique number (for that particular map). Sections of road between junctions are known as Links and can be uniquely defined by the node numbers on each side of the accident. Where an accident occurs off the main road network the location can be approximately defined by a unique Cell number. Cell numbers are simply areas containing smaller roads (eg. housing areas) which are normally bounded by the main road network, and should be assigned a different numerical sequence (eg. 900-999). Again, the national grid coordinates must
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simple details such as age, sex, severity of injury, are recorded. The remainder of this page contains estimates of the cost of damage to vehicles and/or property, and also codings for the location of the accident (see Section 2:2). Space for up to twelve injured passengers and six pedestrians is included on this page, where a carbon copy is again provided for Police Headquarters. The final page (page 13) includes a short space for the reporting officer to describe how the accident happened. Another box is provided for a sketch of the accident including the position of the vehicles prior to the collision, and the collision point in relation to the road layout. Separate space is provided for a location sketch where a simple map should be drawn showing clearly where the accident occurred on the road network. Two carbon copies of this last page are provided for both the Police District and the local JKR District Office or Local Government Department. The original/top copy of the form is sent to Police Headquarters in Kuala Lumpur.

2:2 LOCATION CODING
Location coding is a very important feature of the accident data as it provides the only way in which an engineer can obtain a true picture of where his safety problems exist. Two methods of location coding have been adopted in Malaysia and these are: 1. 2. Network coding Grid coordinate coding

The function of the Network coding is to provide a means of examining easily and reliably a particular route or junction, or listing those with the worst accident records. The Grid coordinate coding provides an absolute location reference and means of plotting accident maps (essential for Geographic Information Systems). As well as facilitating both analysis feature,
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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia of each accident and complete the coding of: Route number

also be recorded by reading off values on the appropriate map.

2:3 RESPONSIBILITIES WITH RESPECT TO ACCIDENT DATA
The production of the accident database for Malaysia is shown diagrammatically in Fig. 2.1. and the responsibilities of various authorities are outlined in the following sections. 2:3.1 Police As mentioned above, when the local police station has completed a POL27 form according to their coding instructions1, the top copy is sent to the Police District Office, where it is checked, and then sent on to Police Headquarters at Bukit Aman, Kuala Lumpur. In practise, this tends to be done in batches, normally each week. At the same time pages 4 and 15 of the form are sent out to either the local JKR District Office or the Local Government Office, as appropriate. The forms are further checked for completeness at Bukit Aman and then processed (with other crime records) for entry onto the mainframe computer. At the end of each month, the accident file is downloaded to a microcomputer diskette and the data-file converted into the Transport Research Laboratory's Microcomputer Accident Analysis Package2 (MAAP), which has now been adopted as the standard accident analysis tool for Malaysia. 2:3.2 JKR The responsibility for precise location coding for each accident now lies with the various road authorities, as this is of primary importance to them. This is why copies of pages 2 and 13 (ie. pages 4 & 15 containing road number, kilometre post and collision sketches) of each accident are either delivered to or collected from the JKR District Office or Local Government Offices for completion of the relevant sections. The appropriate officers at the JKR District Office are required to check location details
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Lowest Section number of km posts on either side of accident Nearest 100m from the above post Relevant map code and series X-coordinate (easting) Y-coordinate (northing) Direction in which vehicle at fault was travelling In order to provide this data the JKR Office will first need to acquire 1:25000 scale topographical maps of their area. Ideally with the use of a calibrated measuring wheel attached to a car, all State and Federal roads in the area need to be driven along slowly and logged; ie. the position of kilometre posts and other landmarks in relation to reference points already marked on the map (eg. road junctions) are noted as accurately as possible. On average, a feature or permanent land-mark should be noted at least every 1/4km. This information can then be transferred to the maps: an example of part of such a map is given in Fig. 2.2. If not already shown, one kilometre squares also need to be accurately drawn on the maps corresponding to the position of the national grid coordinates. With the additional landmark information and using the Police descriptions and location sketch on the POL27 form, it should now be possible for the JKR engineer to pinpoint accidents much more easily on the appropriate map, and thus fill in the aforementioned location data.

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At the 1:25000 scale, it should just be possible to record the X and Y coordinates for each accident location to the nearest 10m (though the error may be ±25m). All completed forms should be sent to the Highway Planning Unit (HPU) of the Ministry of Works in Kuala Lumpur every month. 2:3.3 Local Government For towns or cities it has been found to be more practical to use a node system. The Local Government Department are thus required to complete the following information on the POL27 forms sent to them: Route number (where one exists) Relevant map code and series X-coordinate (easting) Y-coordinate (northing) Node number of accident or nearest node (if not at junction) or cell
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Node number on other side of accident (if not at junction) Direction in which vehicle at fault was travelling Again this requires the production of special maps, in this case producing a standard node system. For town/city maps a scale of 1:5000 (or at most 1:10000) is recommended. The Local Government Department should then assign a unique node numbering system preferably to all junctions in the' city. An example of part of such a node map is shown in Fig. 2.3. Again, if not already shown, squares corresponding to the national grid should be accurately drawn on the maps. (preferably 100m grid squares). This will enable X-Y coordinates to be noted easily to an accuracy of 10m. All completed forms should again be sent to HPU on a monthly basis

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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia and safety improvements). For larger scale safety improvements it is recommended that central government provide a Special Road Safety Fund from which road authorities can apply for grants supplementary to their annual budget. The application will, of course, need to be justified for each scheme in terms of expected accident reductions which will contribute to achieving the local target.

2:3.4 Ministry Of Public Works On receipt of the completed parts of the forms (pages 4 and 15) the location information is further checked by HPU and entered with the accident identifying parameters onto computer. This will eventually be merged (once per month) with the corresponding accident records received from the Police (see Fig. 2.1). In theory, the database is now complete and can be sent out in the form of relevant MAAP data files for use by the road authorities or analysis by other interested groups.

2:4 RESOURCES REQUIRED
In order to be successful in not only maintaining the accident database but achieving the local casualty reduction targets, resources will be required for both capital expenditure and staff time. Both the Institution of Highways and Transportation (IHT)3 and Local Authority Associations4 in the UK strongly recommend that a local road authority should establish a specific Accident Investigation Unit for this data maintenance, analysis and engineering side of accident reduction and prevention. The advantage of such a group is that it can dedicate its time to the task and not be diverted onto other traffic or highway matters. The IHT Guidelines suggest a staffing level of one engineer or technician for each 4001000 reported accidents per year, depending on whether the Unit can pass detailed design and implementation of schemes to another section. The staff must be trained as safety engineering is a specialised area of work. Adequate capital resources are also required in order to implement the extensive remedial work necessary to meet the local targets. It is therefore recommended that a set amount be specified in each annual budget of the road authority which is reserved solely for safety expenditure (maintaining the database
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REFERENCES
1. POLIS DI RAYA MALAYSIA. POLIS 27 (Pindaan 1/91) - Panduan Mengisi Borang. Cawangan Trafik, Ibu Pejabat Bukit Aman, Kuala Lumpur - 1991. HILLS, B L, G J ELLIOTT & D CLARKE. Microcomputer Accident Analysis Package v5.0 (MAAPfive) User guide. Transport Research Laboratory, Overseas Centre, Crowthorne - 1994. INSTITUTION OF HIGHWAYS AND TRANSPORTATION. Highway safety guidelines: accident reduction and prevention. International edition. IHT, 3 Lygon Place, Ebury Street, SWIW OJS, London - 1990. LOCAL AUTHORITY ASSOCIATIONS. Road safety code of good practice. C/o Hertfordshire County Council, Highways Dept, North Road, Hertford, SG14 2PY, U.K. - 1989.

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CHAPTER III INVESTIGATION
3:0 INTRODUCTION
The following chapters contain a stepby-step approach to tackling the problem of hazardous locations on a regular basis. The main objective of this engineering safety work is to change the road environment in the most efficient manner (ie. within a specified budget) such that the maximum benefit in terms of accident savings is gained. This chapter is concerned with finding out where problem locations exist and the preliminary investigation required to try to determine the nature of the safety problems. This Guide assumes that a microcomputer, the MAAP software (see 2:3.1), and relevant datasets are available to the investigator 3:1.1 Ranking blackspot sites The first stage is to study the data in a logical manner to rank problem sites. It is important to note at this stage that the initial listing will need to be modified to produce one of ‘treatable’ sites. For example, consider Fig. 3.1 (a) and (b) summarising accident data types for two roundabout sites with similar accident numbers. In (a) there are a large number of similar accidents involving loss of control or skidding during the hours of darkness. This may well be treatable by improved skid resistant surface or drainage, improved signing and lighting. However, at site (b) there is no obvious dominant pattern; thus only site (a) can therefore be classed as a treatable site. It important to try to define a “reaction level” * , ie. the number of accidents or points above which the investigator takes some action. The reaction level is set based on the following three variables: Number of accidents: a) all injury accidents b) severity points weighting c) all pedestrian injury accidents Type of highway unit: a) kilometre length b) within 50m of junction c) links or mid-block accidents d) all roads in a defined area Time period: a) 12-month periods of consecutive months, (not necessarily a calendar year) are the normal periods used.

Step 1: Identifying And Prioritising Sites 3:1. ACCIDENT DATA SEARCH
It is necessary to identify high accident sites in the network for which the road authority has responsibility. Ideally, a period of 3 to 5 years of accident data should be reviewed. This is because accidents, even at very hazardous locations, are relatively rare events having a considerable random element, particularly in the time at which they occur. Statisticians tend to agree, therefore, that as a general rule, three years is really the minimum period needed to smooth out any abnormally large random fluctuations, to produce a reliable ranking of hazardous sites, and eventually to make evaluations of the treatments (ie. compare with a 3-year ‘after’ period). However, if such a long period is not yet available on the local computer database, rather than wait for this time to elapse, shorter periods can be investigated as long as caution is exercised over the conclusions made.

*The Highway Planning Unit's current accident points weighting system is accidents involving fatality= 6 serious injury = 3 slight injury = 0.8 damage-only = 0.2
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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia 417 (includes 2 fatal accidents) 419 422 415 420 409 (includes 1 fatal accident). If the reaction level for this particular road authority was set at 9 injury accidents in a 100m section in 3 years (ie. as in Fig. 3.3), the first 7 locations are included in the above list (Table 3.1), though in a slightly different ranking order. Taking this a step further, if the severity of accidents is further taken into account by weighting factors (which are normally related to the average accident cost of each severity level), and damage-only accidents are also included (having a real cost), this results in the ranking shown in Table 3.1. It can be seen that in this particular case, which considers a small 27km length of road, the same seven sites appear at the top of the list irrespective of the ranking method used. However, the priority order varies somewhat, and is likely to change again when more indepth investigation is carried out to determine treatable sites. 3:1.1.2 Single sites The priority listing for single sites in a town or city can be handled in much the same way as in the previous section once a node numbering system has been established and data entered onto computer. For a particular town, MAAP can produce a list of the worst nodes or links (mid-block accidents between adjacent nodes) as in the example shown in Fig. 3.4. To produce such a list, select the Location option from the main menu bar and select Kilometre & Link/Node analysis as above. Now select Worst node. Set any Conditions, such as, to include only those accidents involving personal injury accidents. Finally Select data files to be included in the
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An example of a reaction level criterion could be a blacksite definition of: 9 or more injury accidents, [or 15 points or more], within 50m of a junction, [or on a 200m road section], over the past 3 years. It is probably better to focus on injury accidents in setting a reaction level as these tend to be more reliably reported than damage-only ones. The following sections explain how sites can be ranked according to the four approaches to accident reduction mentioned in Chapter 1. 3:1.1.1 Route action sites The simplest way of ranking sites, and the one currently recommended for use in Malaysia, is to list them in descending order of accident totals for either sections of road, nodes, or grid referenced cells. Highway authorities elsewhere sometimes use accident rates but these necessitate traffic flow counts to be available at all points on the network, and also tend to give lower rankings to the high-flow, high-accident where potentially more accidents could be saved. To produce a list using MAAP, select the Location option from the main menu bar and select Kilometre & Link/Node analysis. If a particularrural road is being studied, select either the 1km or 100m analysis option, and then set any Conditions, such as, to include only those accidents involving personal injury accidents. An example of a kilometre plot of accidents for a 27km stretch of Federal Route 1 over a period of three years is shown in Fig. 3.2 (using the Zoom option to specify lkm lengths). A list of the worst 100m sections of this stretch is shown in Fig.3.3 (using the Worst button which will prompt for the number of sites to include in the analysis). With reference to Fig. 3.2 it can be seen that the worst kilometres are:
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analysis. Once a pass has been made through the data files, the user will be prompted for the number of nodes to include in the list. Again weighting factors can be applied to the different severity levels to obtain a cost-related ranking of sites. 3:1.1.3 Mass action sites In order to determine sites for mass action treatment it is necessary to relate a selected type of accident feature to individual sites and to initially rank the latter according to the numbers of accidents of the selected factor. Some examples of these would be as follows: Locations with the worst records of: Accidents on bends Right-turn accidents Overtaking accidents Nighttime accidents Pedestrians crossing road accidents Bicycle/motor-cycle accidents
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It is often more difficult to rank mass action sites because a particular accident type normally only represents a sub-set of the data at any one site. Thus smaller numbers are usually involved. However, the simplest approach is to try to assess the likely accident saving for each mass action plan and rank these, producing a list with the greatest potential for accident savings at the top of the list. 3:1.1.4 Area wide action As single blackspot sites are gradually treated accident occurrence can be rather scattered, and so attention generally tends to turn to wider areas, particularly urban residential areas. In urban areas in Malaysia, it is not uncommon for parts of towns to have well over 100 accidents (and sometimes over 50 injury accidents) per square kilometre per year. Again, ranking areas for treatment is not a simple matter and an assessment of the potential accident savings for each action plan should be made. Those yielding the best returns in terms of accident savings related to cost of implementation should be

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made. Those yielding the best returns in terms of accident savings related to cost of implementation should be placed at the top of the list. MAAP can also be used to produce counts of accidents in grid squares or irregularly shaped areas if a digitised or scanned map (to national grid coordinates) is available and accident locations have also been recorded by coordinates on the database (see Fig. 3.5 example). It is probably best to initially use MAAP to produce a grid square count and then consider, say, ten areas which could possibly each be treated as a package, that is, bounded by roads, railway lines, rivers or other geographic features. This type of ranking is normally carried out by focusing on the vulnerable road users. For example, total accidents involving some or all of the following groups could be plotted: All motorcycle riders all pedal cyclists Child pedal cyclists (under 16 years) All pedestrian casualties Child pedestrians (under 16 years)

STEP 2: Preliminary Accident Analysis 3:2. REFINING THE RANKING BY STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES
Before embarking on an in-depth investigation at any site, it is advisable to check that the site has higher numbers of accidents than might be expected, and that this difference is statistically significant. The following sections outline some simple statistical techniques which may be used. 3:2.1 Averages or "Norms" It is important to know whether the level of accidents is higher than expected, for example, whether the number of skidding accidents at a site is worse than average. If a particular route is under consideration, this can be divided up into equal lengths (eg. kilometres) and the average number of accidents per section calculated. This is referred to as the arithmetic mean or norm. To determine whether particular sections warrant further investigation, the standard deviation (measure of the variability in the data) is normally calculated. The coefficient of variation Cv is a simple measure of how a set of data varies from its mean, with values of Cv > 1 regarded as very substantial deviation.

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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia It is used to calculate the probability of a particular frequency of accidents occurring in a year when the long term average is known. Example Let us assume the injury accident figures for a site are as follows: 1991 = 2 accidents 1992 = 0 accidents 1993 = 1 accident 1994 = 5 accidents If this site is selected on the basis of the last year, it is better to confirm that some change has happened at the site such that the next year will also be high, and not that the apparent increase has occurred by chance. Long term average = (2+0+1+5)/4 =2 Using the Poisson Probability (Single factor values) tables given in Appendix C, look for the high year value of 5 in the left hand column (k=5) and across to the column of λ(mean) =2. The value here is 0.0361 which means that the probability of 5 accidents occurring where the long term average is 2, is 0.0361 or 3.61 %. However, the likelihood of 5 or more accidents occurring at the site should be quoted. To do this simply add the probabilities of k=5, k=6, k=7, k=8 etc. That is: 0.0361 + 0.0120+ 0.0034+ 0.0009+ 0.0002 = 0.0526 Thus the probability of 5 or more accidents occurring due to random fluctuation is 5.26% ie. about a 1 in 20 chance that this is random, or a 94.74% (100-5.26) chance that this is a real increase.

Those sites that have more accidents than the mean plus 1 standard deviation should be the first to be singled out for investigation. Example Consider the example stretch of Federal Route 1 shown in Fig. 3.2 and take x as the frequency of injury accidents in three years.

Thus there is considerable variation between 1km sections along this road in their accident occurrence. Those sections with more than 12 accidents (ie. 6.22 + 6.62) are certainly worthy of further investigation, ie: Section: 417 419 422 419

3:2.2 The Poisson Test This test (for randomly occurring events) is commonly used to determine whether a recent increase in accidents at a site was due to random fluctuation only (and will return to previous levels).
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3:2.3 Chi Squared test This test is normally used for two purposes: To determine whether the number of accidents of a particular type is "significantly" higher than at similar sites To check whether there has been a "significant" change in the number of accidents at a site after treatment has been carried out. Example A particular junction is suspected of having a poor skid resistant road surface, and has the following accident record: ‘Skidding’ accidents No skidding reported =7 =5 In the Chi Squared Distribution Table (Appendix D), looking along the line with one degree of freedom (v=1), the value just below the 9.81 calculated above is 6.64 which is the 0.01 “significance” level, ie. 1%. This means that the chance of getting 7 skidding accidents at a site with a total of 12 by chance is only 1 % (one in data is interrogated. 100 chance). Thus it seems fairly certain that there is some reason why the skidding accidents are occurring at this site 3:2.4 Interpretation of “significance” The significance or confidence levels of results from the above statistical tests can be interpreted with the following practical meanings:

For all other similar junctions along this road the accident record over the same period was: ‘Skidding’ accidents No skidding reported = 37 = 178

We need to test whether the skidding accidents are significantly different from what might be expected. The following (2x2) table should be set up:

* N.B. The above formula allows for Yates' correction which overcomes the inaccuracies which could occur with the test when using whole numbers - as with accident frequencies. Also, note that the test becomes less reliable if any cell has a value less than S.
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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia solution can be devised. The factors leading to accidents will be dealt with in more detail in Step 5, but at this stage the stick diagram gives investigator a “feel” for the types of accidents occurring and provides an indication of what to look for during the preliminary site visit. Select Stick from the main menu bar and set any conditions if necessary. It is possible to set up a number of different stick formats if required. An example of a stick diagram from MAAP is given in Fig. 3.6, where each accident is represented symbolically by a column (or stick) of key information. In this example, a T -junction (and one of the worst blackspots in Seremban), only injury accidents have been included; though it should be noted that there were also 74 damage-only accidents recorded in the 3 year period. It can be seen immediately from the stick diagram that the injury accidents all included the vulnerable road users: motorcyclists and/or pedestrians. Five of the six pedestrian casualties were in fact struck by a motorcycle. Most of the other motorcycle accidents (75 %) were side impacts or side swipes involving cars emerging from the side road and apparently not noticing or misjudging the motorcycle on the main road. Only two of the 13 injury accidents were in darkness, thus poor lighting is unlikely to be a particular problem at this site. The initial site visits should therefore concentrate on the turning manoeuvre problem particularly with motorcyclists, and also the pedestrian problem.

it is generally agreed that only results significant at (or better than) the 5% level can be regarded as conclusive. 3:2.5 In-depth analysis - initial stage Having now obtained a priority list of sites for investigation, it is advisable to produce a “working file” of accidents for each site. This can be done easily on MAAP and means that all subsequent analysis can be carried out of the working file, without having to search the whole database each time the data is interrogated. Use the Find Records option from the main menu bar and choose Find Selected Records. In this menu select Create Working file and then Set Conditions to extract all accidents for the site under investigation. The conditions to be set may be of the following types: i) Kilometre (Section) No. also set: Road Number Nearest 100m (if possible) ii) Node No. also set: Map code or State and District and PoliceStation No iii) X-coordinate range and Y-coordinate range The working files should include as many years data as available. Clear, meaningful names should be given to these working files so that they can be easily identified at a later date or by other users. A stick diagram of each site can now be produced using these files. This is produce a “working file” of accidents simply a way of displaying each accident record as a column of data. The purpose of the stick diagram is toassist the investigator to look quickly patterns of similar types of accident for which some appropriate engineering solution can be devised. The factors leading to accidents will be dealt with in more detail in Step 5, but at this
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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia capital works programme for the area. For operational purposes, the easy sites should be tackled first as they should provide: good return on money spent; an immediate improvement in the accident record (- useful argument for allocation of funds for future yes); an important psychological boost to staff to see successful results from implementation of schemes

STEP 3: Initial Site Visit 3:3 PRELIMINARY VISIT
The site visit is a very important element of any accident investigation. The main purpose of the first site visit is to become familiar with the site and to ensure that available plans are up to date and detailed enough to identify specific features which may be contributing to accidents; for example, visibility sight lines, street furniture, buildings. The investigator should identify the manoeuvres indicated in the accident reports and try to visualise the accidents, particularly those with common characteristics. It might be necessary to make visits at different times of the day, or in dark and/or wet conditions, in accordance with the factors revealed in the stick diagram. It is often possible at this early stage to make a preliminary assessment of the likely causes of certain accident types. The use of photographs taken at driver/pedestrian eye height or an overall view can be an invaluable aid in the office or at presentations to committees. 3:3.1 “Easy” & “Hard” sites It may now be possible to attempt to further rank sites even at this stage into whether they will be easy or hard to treat. This can be done more accurately later when costs and benefits are estimated. Easy sites are those where effective remedial measures can be readily identified and are of low-cost. Hard sites are those which do not provide a clear indication of appropriate treatment or where this is likely to be very costly. In the former case the site should be selected for further, more detailed investigation if it has high numbers of accidents. In the latter case it may be necessary to include the site in a
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CHAPTER IV DIAGNOSIS
4.0: INTRODUCTION
This chapter is concerned with collecting further data about the sites now selected for study, and using these to diagnose what are the common prime contributory factors that help explain how the road users involved in the actual collisions. This in-depth analysis of an accident site, area or group of road users is necessary in order to formulate an appropriate remedial measure. The following sections consider a single site analysis, the principles applying also to mass and route action approaches. Accident Reference no. Copies of the sketch plans of accidents referenced by the above numbers from 1992 onwards can currently be obtained on application from: Accident Research Unit, Fakulti Kejuruteraan, Universiti Pertanian Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor Darul Ehsan Having obtained these and printed out the computerised record for each accident using MAAP, the next step is to produce collision diagrams at each site by drawing an approximate plan, preferably to about 1:500 scale showing the main site features (eg.kerb lines,street furniture, trees and buildings,and road markings. Details for this should have been noted/drawn during the initial site visit (Step3). On this plan, the POL27 sketch plans for each accident should be referred to in order to mark the positions of the accidents, and also the approach and intended departure paths of the vehicles immediately involved. An example of such a collision diagram for a crossroads where there were 10 injury accidents is shown in Fig.4.1. It is suggested that standard symbols be used for this as given in Appendix E The most important use of the collision diagram is toprovide a starting point for the classification of each accident into clusters. 4:4.2 Classiflcation Of Accident Types As was stated in Chapter 1,accidents are generally multi-factor events and it is thus important not to try to assign a single cause to each accident during the initial examination of data.To do this
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STEP 4 Collection Of Further Data And Analysis
4:4.1 Collision Diagrams Having produced a working computer file for each site, inspection of all this accident data and relevant police records is essential. It should be related to a plan of the area showing all on-site features relevant to the study period. It is suggested that attention should first be focused on injury accidents (the most reliably reported) unless these are very small in number.If accident pattems are not obvious from these accidents (discussed below),then it may be helpful to include the damageonly accidents where available. It is strongly advised that the POL27 sketch plms and accident description are retrieved by using the accident reference numbers for each accident.The values of data items which will uniquely define a particular accident record are: State code District code Police Station no. Year
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could mask underlying factors which can often be treated by simple low-cost remedial action.In practice an accident can be assigned to many underlying factors. For example, depending on circumstances, the basic single collision type shown in Fig.4.2 might be assigned to any of the following accident factors: Approach visibility restricted Violation of mandatory sign Overshooting give way line Collision on restart from give way line Obscured give way sign Give way line worn away or conceaIed by uneven road surface Junction ahead not apparent from side road Excessive speed of main road traffIc Uneven lighting concealing main road vehicles This list is not exhaustive, but illustrates the fact that a single collision type can be classified according to many factors or accident types. Some of these may suggest a suitable treatment whereas others may not
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thus the aim should be to assign accidents to a class for which there is a remedial action. Unfortunately, many of these underlying factors will not appear in the accident report or original police file. Let us consider again Fig.4.l where the accidents could be classified as: 2 double cross-overs (crossing both main road streams), a right turn, a left tum off (or nose-to-tail), and a pedestrian accident. At first sight no distinct accident pattern is revealed and thus no indication of my remedial action that would help. If left here no improvement to the junction would be made. However, after reading the written description of the POL27 form it was discovered that all 4 drivers pulling out of one minor road (fig 4.2) stopped first but collided with a main road vehicle on restart, because their “view to the right was obscured by street furniture or parked vehicle”. The rear-end collision in fig.4.1 occurred when the first vehicle braked for a third vehicle emerging from the side road but whose vision was masked by street

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furniture. Similarly the pedestrian stepped out from behind the same street furniture. Hence all 6 accidents could be assigned to the class: “view to the right obstructed”, and thus the necessary remedial action is clear; ie. remove the obstructions. 4:4.3 Searching For A Dominant Accident Pattern Consider the collision diagram in Fig.4.3 where again on first viewing there does not appear to be any pattern which indicates a treatment. There is a need to re-classify the accidents to produce a dominant accident type in which there is at least one common factor which could be treated. The simplest way is to produce a stick diagram and, because every accident cluster is unique, using a standard stick format may be too restrictive. Such a stick diagram has been produced manually in Fig.4.4. Note that although other sticks can be produced and automatically sorted using MAAP, the investigator is restricted to using only the computer coded items of POL27. Even if MAAP or other software packages were used, manual checking is almost
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always necessary to verify and add data to the computer grid. In Fig.4.5 additional information obtained by reading the text description, looking at the sketch diagrams, and observations during the site visit, has been incorporated by adding additional items and symbols (such as the “obscured vision” and “double cross over” taking into account main road direction). To help reveal common factors a useful technique is to cut up the grid to produce individual sticks for each accident. These can be rearranges repeatedly on a new sheet of paper until a pattern is noticed. An example of one rearrangement (by main road direction and collision type) is shown in Fig.4.5). Pattern recognition is a skill which improves with use. In the example it can be seen that the eastbound and westbound accidents reveal different characteristics. The westbound direction all possess “visibility obstructed by parked vehicles and trees” and the remedial action may involve new or enforced parking restrictions and tree lopping.

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On the eastbound approach, all accidents occurred on a wet road surface, the wet surface condition for the whole site being statistically no worse than the ‘norm’. The further data required in this case are skid resistances and any reasons why the eastbound approach may be wetter than westbound. In the subsequent site visit it was found that skid resistance was indeed considerably lower on this side due to reinstatement of the west side following extensive utility works. Also, lorries leaving a nearby plant were regularly depositing water on the road on the eastern side. Furthermore the “Give way” line on the minor road southern approach was worn away and partly concealed due to a surface depression. 4:4.4 Human Factors Need To Be Considered Human factors are important to the road engineer as the roadside environment constantly presents visual cues to the driver as to the nature of the road ahead. Drivers tend to drive on expectancy in that when they see a wide, straight road ahead with no
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junctions they will increase speed, and they may use a line of trees or telegraph poles to gauge the sharpness of a bend ahead and so judge how much to slow down. Sometimes, however, the environment gives false visual cues. These are known as “perceptual traps” and are where some drivers are misled by the visual appearance of the road, commonly failing to recognise the presence of a give way junction ahead or a bend. Unfortunately, the road engineer is unlikely to have the opportunity to interview drivers involved in accidents at a problem site. But by relating the dominant factors from the police reports to his own site observations it is often possible to identify contributing defects in the road system. 4:4.5 Example A major-minor cross-roads had recently been improved on the major road arms by local widening and installation of clearly-marked right-turn bays. However, concern was expressed over the
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the number of accidents which were still occurring. Only one year of accident data were available, and Fig.4.6 gives a MAAP stick diagram for this period which in this case includes all recorded accidents. It can be seen immediately that most (>90%) of the accidents were either right angle, side or side swipe impacts which implies collisions between one vehicle approaching the junction on the major road and another along a side arm. Most vehicles classed as “at fault” were travelling westbound (DIR=7), though four of the sixteen accidents involved eastbound vehicles. There does not appear to be any pattern to the time of day or day of week on which the accidents occurred. Also there were only four accidents during the hours of darkness (the junction is lit) and only one accident on a wet road surface. Fig.4.7 shows the sorted stick diagram after viewing the POL27sketch diagrams to determine primarily which direction the main road vehicle was travel1ing prior to the
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right-angle collision. Ideally, the police accident descriptions should also be read (as should witness statements, if available) to determine whether any other factors could be added to the stick. It is clear that many drivers in these accidents were failing to give way to oncoming traffic at the stop line, and as no further information could be obtained from POL27, the essential site visit should now be carried out.

STEP 5: Site Studies And Analysis 4:5 RELEVANT DATA FROM SITE
Before embarking on expensive new data collection studies it is important to ensure that all existing data about the site has been obtained. Having studied this, together with the accident analysis above, it should then be possible to decide on studies which are relevant to the actual safety problems at the site. 4:5.1 Simple Observation It is possible that obvious difficult features of the site may have been observed at the initial site visit. However, with a more detailed knowledge of the types of accident
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that have occurred, and also by driving through the site making the same manoeuvres, the investigator is now likely to be able to notice new features. Some of the most useful questions an investigator should ask are: a) Are accidents being caused by the physical condition of the road or adjacent property, and cm the problem be eliminated or corrected? b) Is a ‘blind’ corner or restricted sight-line at a junction responsible? If improvement is impossible, have steps been taken to warn drivers? c) Are the existing signs, signals and markings performing the job for which they were intended? Have conditions at the site changed since the devices were installed? Are replacements needed? Could the devices be causing accidents rather than preventing them? d) Is traffics properly channelled to minimise accident occurrence?
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e) Would accidents be prevented by the prohibition of any single movement such as a right turn at a minor road? f) Could some of the traffic be diverted to other (safer) streets where problems are unlikely to be transferred? g) Are night time accidents out of proportion today time ones thus needing special night time protection, eg reflectorised signs, street lighting or traffic signals? h) Are there any particular times of day, year or weather condition when accidents are common? i) Do conditions indicate the need for additional levels of law enforcement? 4:5.2 Example Continuing the previous cross-roads example, figs.4.8 and 4.9 show views of the approach to the junction fromeach minor road arm. The minor road is long and straight and relatively wide such that approach speeds of some drivers are probably quite high.

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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia To improve this cross roads the engineer should concentrate on breaking up the long distance view, such that the illusion of a continuous road is removed. A relatively low-cost method of doing this would be to construct new offset traffic island in the centre of each minor arm carriageway with suitable chevron ghost islands and arrow signs. There is also likely to be a need to shave some area off the existing splitter islands to maintain adequate road width in the curved chicane created (see Fig.4.10). The carriageway's intersection by the major road should then be much more obvious to approaching drivers.

Despite the fact that there are stop signs, the visual cues to the driver provided by the kerb lines, line markings and light columns suggest that the road is continuous without a break, whereas it is, in fact, crossed by a major road. It is possible that even if a driver is a regular user of the road, the fact that he has been travelling a considerable distance in a fairly straight line could mean that he is not paying full attention and may thus fail to stop at the junction :there is then obviously the chance of a collision with a major road vehicle of the side impact type which can often result in injury.

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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia Nevertheless, some of the following measurements or techniques would be worthwhile in certain circumstances to provide justification for decisions on remedial action. Table 4.1gives a list of the more common types of accident problems with studies that are likely to be appropriate. However, it must be noted studies will not be essential in every case. Further details of site studies can be obtained from ref.1 4:5.3.1 Traffic Flow A range of traffic data can be collected to assist with analysis, and this needs to be appropriate to the task in hand and comparable with the accident data, eg. same year or particular day of week. To help decide on the most appropriate provision for a particular manoeuvre (eg. right turners)at a junction, it is necessary to know the numbers of drivers normally making this manoeuvre. Comparing previous counts with more recent ones may reveal some changes in traffic pattern that could help to explain changes in the accident pattern. Although automatic axle counters can be used to measure straight road flows quite accurately, manual counts will probably be required to obtain turning manoeuvres at junctions. Although time-consuming to obtain, this method has the advantage of providing more accurate vehicle classifications (eg. for motorcycles, buses).

As the junction carries relatively low volumes of traffic (including motorcycles), an alternative treatment could be the installation of aroundabout on which are mounted chevron boards opposite each approach arm. This would also have the additional benefit of slowing down traffic approaching on all arms of the junction (eg.see Fig.4.11).

4:5.3 Other Observational Measurements It is obviously desirable to have as much information about a site as possible when making decisions about how best to improve its safety. It is, however, recognised that additional observation studies may be difficult for some road authorities to carry out for reasons of cost and manpower.
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If pedestrian accidents are a problem then the engineer will need to know how many pedestrians are crossing the road and where they do s. Guidance on carrying out vehicle flow counts is given in ref.2.

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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia 4:5.3.3 Photography And Video. The use of still photography or video taken from various positions (eye height, side or plan view) can be invaluab1e for presentations or measurements made in the office. Using colour video with a tenth second time display facility taken at various times of day, the movement of vehicles and pedestrians can be studied repeatedly in the office. Studying the road user behaviour in this way can sometimes provide valuable clues as to why accidents are occurring and whether there are any deficiencies in the site geometry which could be improved. If there are indications from the accident data of, say, a peak hour or wet weather effect then filming should be made in the same conditions. 4:5.3.4 Traffic Conflict Studies It is often difficult to establish the factors that lead to accidents from accident data alone due to incomplete or unreliable information. An additional measure which can assist in the diagnosis of problems involves the observation of conflicts or “near-misses”. Conflicts are those events where there is a possibility of an accident, but where a collision does not occur because one or more of the parties involved takes avoiding action. A conflict study is simply a formalised method of observing the interaction of traffic at a location and recording the more hazardous events. There is obviously subjectivity involved in the identification of conflicts, and observers do need to be carefully trained to maintain conformity of results. Several slightly varying techniques have evolved in different parts of the world3 and a relatively easy-to-learn and reliable technique has been developed over a number of years by TRL3,4. In a conflict study the numbers of conflicts are recorded and graded according to a scale of severity. This ranges from controlled
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4:5.3.2 Speed Measurements Excessive speed is frequently reported as being a major contributory factor in accidents, and there can be no disputing the fact that safety margins are reduced and the likelihood of escaping injury in a collision is reduced with increasing speed. However, to provide evidence for a suspected speed problem at a particular site, speed measurements need to be taken. Road surface vehicle detectors linked to electronic timer counters provide accurate spot speed measurements if installed correctly, but hand-held radar guns have perhaps proved to be more popular a method due to their ease of use. However, care needs to be exercised in the use of radar guns to avoid secondary reflections from oncoming vehicles which can cause incorrect readings. For example, they are usually impractical for busy dual carriageways unless used from an overhead bridge. accidents, and there can be no disputing the fact that safety margins are reduced and the likelihood of escaping injury in a collision is reduced with increasing speed. The siting of a radar meter is very important. It must be as inconspicuous as possible so as not to affect drivers, choice of speed and away from bus stops, parked cars, junction mouths etc. The meter should be pointed as straight as possible along the road (in line with traffic movement):an error of 10 degrees either way will cause the meter to under-read by 1 1/2 %. A sample of at least 100 (preferably 200) should be taken comprising all freely -moving vehicles (or platoon leaders) to obtain a good estimate of the true mean and 85th percentile speeds. The standard deviation of the sample should be about one sixth of the mean. If it is much higher than themean (say, one quarter) or much lower (say, one tenth), then the measurements should be regarded with suspicion.
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Fig. 4.13 Collision diagram (accidents over 2-years) for junction in Seremban

slight braking to extreme emergency evasive action. The resulting data, usually expressed in the form of daily rates of particular types of conflict, should be used in conjunction with accident information to identify particular manoeuvres, road user groups, or site factors which contribute to a poor safety record. Conflict studies do have limitations to their use, and advice on the choice of sites, numbers of observers, length of study periods, etc .is given in ref 4. 4:5.4 Example Of A Site Study Fig.4.13 (from ref.5) shows the collision diagram over a period of two years for an urban T- junction between two one-way roads in Seremban. The stick diagram produced by MAAP is shown in fig.4.14 and this has been sorted according to collision type and severity of accident. It can be seen that the majority of collisions (33 out of a total 68) are side swipes (including all side impacts). Six of these

involved injury and all 6 injuries were suffered by motorcyclists. These collisions were chiefly between vehicles turning right out of the side road, Jalan Sheikh Ahmad, and merging with main through traffic. It is also likely that the 12 rear-end accidents were as a result of vehicles braking for these merging vehicles further upstream. The other main type of injury accident, comprising one fatal and four injury, that occurred at or near the junction were between pedestrians and motorcyclists. Pedestrians frequently do not notice the smaller visual area that a motorcyclist presents compared with a 44 wheeled vehicle. There does not appear to be any noticeable time of day or darkness effects in the accident pattern. Owing to various tune constraints, only a one day study could be carried out at this junction, but it was decided that this should include collecting data on traffic conflicts, approach speeds, vehicle manoeuvre now and pedestrian road crossing flows. The traffic flows are shown in Fig 4.15 and main conflict counts in Fig 4.16.
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It can be seen that the merge type of conflict with vehicles from Jln. Sheikh Ahmad was the most common due to relatively high merging flows. Drivers making this manoeuvre, particularly motorcyclist,were frequently observed relatively high merging flows. Drivers making this manoeuvre, particularly motorcyclist, were frequently observed as possible in order to use either the access road on the left (Jalan Khalsa see Fig.4.11) or adjoining petrol station. From Figs.4.15 & 4.16 it can also be seen that the frequency of pedestrians crossing the road is very high with a maximum of 890 in one hour. Conflicts with vehicles tend to occur mostly when business activity is high particularly in the morning. Approach speeds of freely-moving vehicles were also measured using radar (see Fig.4.17) with a mean speed of 30km/h and 85th percentile of 37km/h, vehicle speeds were not considered to be excessive.
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The proposed accident countermeasures at this example site will be discussed in the next chapter.

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REFERENCES
1. RADIN UMAR R S. Panduan Diagnosis dan Rawatan Kemalangan Jalan Raya. To be published by Dewan Bahasa dan Pustaka, Kuala Lumpur - 1995 CHE MAT BAHRI BIN HJ KASRI. Traffic Survey and Studies. Institut Kerja Raya Malaysia training reference: JLN/RA/201/1 IKRAM, Jalan Serdang, 43000 Kajang1989. ASMUSSEN, E. International Calibration Study of Traffic Conflicts Techniques. NATO ASI Series F: Computer & System Sciences. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, Tokyo - 1984 TRANSPORT & ROAD RESEARCH LABORATORY. The Traffic Conflict Technique Guidelines. TRRL. Institution of Highways and Transportation, 3 Lygon Place, Ebury Street, SW1W 0JS, London - 1987 BAGULEY, CJ, & RADIN UR SOHADI. The improvement of accident data quality in Malaysia. In: Proceedings of First Malaysian Road Conference 1994. JKR, Roads Branch, Jalan Sultan Salahuddin, 50582 Kuala Lumpur - 1994

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CHAPTER V SELECTION
5.0 INTRODUCTION
This chapter discusses the steps of se1ecting a package of possible countermeasures for a site and of prioritising the potential treatments and sites. This is done by simply deciding on appropriate objectives of tile various safety strategies based on achieving satisfactory accident reductions which match or exceed the expenditure planned. between RM250,000 and RM500,000. 5:6.1.2 Mass Action Objectives To achieve an accident reduction of at least 15% at treated sites for each plan. To obtain a FYRR of not less than 40%. To carry out the remedial work at a cost per plan not exceeding a fixed maximum amount. The maximum scheme cost is likely to depend on the type of measure used and the number of sites covered. 5:6.1.4 Area-Wide Objectives To achieve an accident reduction of at least l0% within the area covered by the plan. To obtain a FYRR of 10% to 25%. To carry out the remedial work at minimum cost. The maximum sum will depend on the area size and inclusion of environmental enhancements. 5:6.2 Treatments Having identified dominant accident types at a location or area under study, this will hopefully give an indication of an appropriate remedial measure (or package of measures if there is more than one accident group). It is desirable to consider a number of alternative proposals for each site. For every proposal it should be checked that: a) The measures are likely to decrease the type of accident at which it is aimed

STEP 5: Select Possible Countermeasures
5:6.1 Objectives Of Countermeasure Scheme For Malaysia, the precise objectives for the four accident reduction strategies outlined in Chapter I (Section l:4) will need to be decided based on local experience but those adopted in the UK are given below as a guide. The First Year Rate of Return (FYRR) is a measure of the net benefits in terms of accident reductions from the scheme expressed as a percentage of the total capital cost. This is defined fully later in this chapter in Step7. 5:6.1.1 Single Site Objectives To achieve an accident reduction of at least 33%at treated sites. To obtain a significant FYRR To carry out the remedial work at a cost per site not exceeding a fixed maximum amount An average FYRR of 50% for schemes should be achievable nationally. As time goes on schemes with a smaller FYRR may be worth considering provided that they meet the other two objectives. It is suggested that a maximum of RM25,000 be an appropriate level for the first application of accident remedial work. Thereafter this maximum may be increased
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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia the sum of the individual percentages given in these tables. It is also recommended that reference5 be used as a source of ideas on many other treatments for typical blackspots, and that the reader keeps up-to-date with new techniques. 5:6.2.1 Example Let us consider the same example T-junction discussed in detail at the end of the previous chapter (Section 4:5.4|& ref.6). It is clear that the vehicle sideswipe and pedestrian collisions problems should be where attention is focused in designing remedial action. In view of the former type of accident tending to involve motorcyclist, it was decided that the best policy would be to restrict the crossing manoeuvre and make all turning vehicles perform more of a merge type manoeuvre. This could be done by first narrowing down the two-lane flow along Jalan Sheikh Ahmad which currently joins the main road, Jalan Yam Tuan (see Fig.4.15) into a single lane. This would have the extra advantage of providing more area which can be utilised for motorcycle parking. A solid delineator kerb was suggested for this purpose as shown in the sketch in Fig.5.1.This kerb is extended along Jalan Yam Tuan so that the merge is actually carried out further downstream where vehicles are travelling parallel to one another, and thus main road drivers have a clearer view of merging vehicles. This smoother merge should also help prevent queuing along Jalan Sheikh Ahmad despite its exit now being restricted to a single lane. The solid channelisation, which will reduce the width of the main road slightly, will need to be extended beyond Ja1an Kha1sa and the petrol station to prevent drivers making the immediate crossing manoeuvre to the left hand side (100 to150 vehicles per hour - see Fig.4.14).This relatively small proportion of the traffic will
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b) No further increase in other types of accident is likely to occur as a result of the selected measure. c) There are not likely to be any unacceptable effects on traffic movement or the environment. It should be stressed that safety at the site under study should not be the only consideration when choosing an appropriate countermeasure. The effect of that measure on the surrounding network should be estimated. For example, a self-enforcing speed reducing device like a series of road humps on a local collector road may have the effect of making a large proportion of drivers choose an alternative route along quieter residential streets. As well as being undesirable by residents of these streets, the safety will also most probably be worsened by the increased traffic now. The following tables (5.1 to 5.3) give a list of simple, chiefly low-cost, measures for general, urban and rural situations which have been found to be effective. Where available, the average percentage reduction in accidents that has been achieved1,2 is also included. It should be noted, however, that the list is based largely on experience in the U.K. and Australia3,4 and should therefore only be used as a guide or “ideas” list. It is likely that some of the measures will not be applicable in Malaysia and the reduction in accidents will almost certainly be different. It is thus very important that all remedial measures are properly monitored and evaluated, and results published or at least, centrally recorded so that a similar list based on actual Malaysian experience cm be built up. If more than one group of accidents has been identified at a site, then the remedial work may consist of a package of measures with each one designed to reduce a particular accident group. It does not, of course, follow that the total effect of such a combination of measures at one site will be
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however, now need to use a road on the left (slightly further downstream) to access these entries. Two proposals are shown in the concept sketches of Figs.5.l and 5.2 to deal with the pedestrian conflict problem. The first is to build a footbridge which would only be feasible between Jalan Sheikh Ahmad and Jalan Khalsa without affecting existing buildings. As there are considerable numbers of pedestrians at present crossing the road further upstream (Fig.4.14), it would probably also be necessary to install extensive lengths of pedestrian guard rail to channel pedestrians to the footbridge. This is obviously an expensive solution. The second option of installing a pedestrian refuge, as shown in Fig.5.2, is much cheaper. The refuge should make it easier
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for pedestrians as they only have to make gap judgments about one stream of traffic at a time. Also, this refuge, together with the new chicane now already at this point, should also help to slow down traffic in this vicinity. Large road studs along the boundary line of the hatched area and direction arrows on the refuge would also be required to help minimise the likelihood of co11isions with the new refuge. As well as being much cheaper this second option is preferred as it is like1y that many pedestrians would not choose to climb the footbridge. 5:6.3 Approaches To Area-Wide Treatment Where accidents are widely dispersed, often in urban areas, over several square kilometres rather than at obvious individual sites, an area-wide treatment may need to be considered
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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia The safety objective is to reduce both the number and severity of accidents, especially to vulnerable road users. This is usually done with self-enforcing speed reducing measures like chicanes, traffic throttles, road humps or speed tables (see Figs.5.4 to 5.9)

A road hierarchy should be drawn up by a road authority where residential streets, access roads, local distributors, district distributors and primary distributors are marked together with land-use (see Fig.5.3).

This can then be used as a base map on which to mark road accidents, vehicle and pedestrian flows. There is a wide variety of treatments that can be used in residential areas but good consu1tation with local residents is always strongly recommended. Traffic calming can generally be regarded as ways in which vehicle speeds can be reduced from an average of 50km/h down to 30km/h.

The main principle of traffic calming techniques is that they still permit motorised traffic to use the same route which they are unable to do with more restrictive measures like road closures, turning bans and one-way traffic. Although limited use can be made of these latter measures (eg.Fig.5.5), they are rarely popular with residents and can lead to accidents being transferred to other areas which become used as “rat-runs”.

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It should be remembered that solutions to a detailed study at a site may not exclusively involve civil engineering works. An integrated approach to improving road safety should really be adopted whereby road safety education and training may need to be combined with an engineering measure. For example, the introduction of a new signa1 controlled pedestrian crossing in a village may require a local publicity campaign to inform pedestrians and drivers how to use it together with training for children in the local school(s).

STEP 7: Priortise Treatments & Sites
5:7.1 Estimating Accident Savings The standard approach for the ranking of treatments is to carry out a cost-benefit analysis based on estimated benefits of the scheme and simply place these in priority order on the basis of the best returns. However, if there is currently little or no data on which to make an estimate of the likely effectiveness of a treatment, then perhaps the best way to proceed is to implement the lowest cost schemes first as these are likely to provide the greatest overall benefit. If the least cost scheme proves in practice to be ineffective then the a1ternative schemes in order of increasing cost should be tried. In most uses a pessimistic estimate can be assumed to be an average reduction in accidents of around 25-33%of a1l accidents. In these applications it is recommended that temporary materials be employed where possible for initial trials; for example, pre-cast concrete slabs tied together and pinned to the road surface to try a particular size and position of splitter island (see Figs.5.10 & 5.11). An economic assessment of projected schemes is important to ensure that the benefits likely will be greater than the cost of implementing and maintaining the scheme and that the best value for money is obtained.
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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia 5:7.2 First Year Rate of Return (FYRR) This is simply the net monetary value of the accident (and any other) savings and drawbacks expected in the first year of the scheme, expressed as a percentage of tile total capital cost. FYRR (%) = Benefits (1st year) x 100 Capital costs where benefits = accidents savings + change in maintenance costs(+/-) + change in journey costs(+/-) Unfortunately, at present the only available accident costing used in Malaysia is that produced in 1985 (see Table 5.4 - from ESCAP7). However, applying national inflation figures since that time, figures for 1995 are estimated in Table 5.4; and using the recent numbers of each severity class of accidents in Malaysia, the average cost of an injury accident in 1995 is approximately RM33,000. It is likely that this figure is nevertheless an underestimate, and it is hoped that a study will be conducted soon to determine more up to-date and realistic values for Malaysia. A column for the most recent national accident costings has thus been left in Table 5.4. Thus let us consider, as an example, a junction which had l2 injury accidents in 3 years, and nine of these involve side collisions with drivers overshooting the Stop line - these being the treatable group of accidents. If the target FYRR is 50%, then the maximum budget for the scheme may be calculated as: %FYRR = Annual Acc. Saving x 100 Scheme cost 50 = (9 x RM33,000 /3) x 100 Scheme cost

There are two methods of economic assessment used for this purpose: i) First Year Rate of Return(FYRR), and ii) Net Present Value(NPV) Both methods need the following basic information: a) The capital cost of the scheme. b) An estimate of al1 benefits (monetary value)expected to result. c) An estimate of all disbenefits.

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Scheme cost = RM99,000 x 100 50 = RM198,000 That is, the scheme should not cost more than RM198,000 in order to achieve a 50% rate of return. A more detailed assessment may, however, be needed with schemes where traffic accidents and traffic levels are expected to change considerably from year to year. For example, a scheme with an 80% FYRR may not be worthwhile if subsequent road closures due to construction of a planned new road, say, restricts the benefits just one year. 5:7.3 Net Present Value (NPV) This type of evaluation expresses (in a single lump slim) the difference between costs and benefits of a scheme which may occur over a period of several years. Unfortunately, it would be incorrect to simply assume that year 1 benefit can be summed to obtain the overall benefit over the life of the scheme. This is because society, in general, prefers benefits which occur sooner rather than later. Future benefits must therefore be adjusted , or “discounted” before being summed to obtain a “present value”. The current rate used by the Treasury for highway schemes is l1% which means that for each RM l of benefit occurring this year,
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if this also accrues next year then this is valued at 11% 1ess, ie.89 Sen. A further year's delay will reduce the benefit again by 11% of 89 Sen, ie.79 Sen, and soon. These figures can be summed over the life of the scheme to obtain the Present Value of Benefits (PVB). The overall economic worth of the scheme is then obtained by deducting the Present Value of Costs (PVC) {these may also have to be discounted if they are spread over more than one year}:NPV = PVB-PVC The scheme is only usually considered worthwhile if this figure is positive. 5:7.3.1 Example of NPV assessment. Let us assume that the expected costs of a junction redesign will be initially RMl00,000 spread over 2 years with annual maintenance costs over the next 5 years (the life of the scheme) of RM8,000. The benefits are always difficult to estimate and will often require a simple educated guess. If in this case we assume that 4 injury accidents over the first two years(2 per year) will be saved, and this will reduce to 0.5 per year following that due to changes in traffic. This equates at present to RM66,000 for two years followed by RMl6,500 for the remaining 3 years. The Net Present Value is calculated in Table 5.5 to be RM6,865.
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In cases where the estimated benefits do not vary throughout the scheme, the calculation of NPV is simplified by the use of cumulated discount values and these are given for various discount percentages in Appendix F. For example, for a benefit of RM20,000 per annum over 5 years with reference to Appendix F, the net benefit at 11% discount rate would be: RM20,000 x 3.57 = RM71,400 5:7.4 Priorities For Implementation The economic criteria for scheme assessment using the NPV approach are: all schemes where NPV is positive are worthwhile in economic terms; for a particular site, the most worthwhile option is that with the highest NPV;
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all options are ranked in order of their NPV/PVC ratio [the highest ratio at the top of the list]. If funds are limited, those with the highest NPV/PVC ratios are preferable on economic grounds. Table 5.6 shows an example of a remedial works priority programme ranked in terms of the schemes, NPV/PVC ratio for a 5 year period. It can be seen that in this example the NPV/PVC ratio gives only a slightly different ranking of the sites to that using FYRR. Using this listing, a line can be drawn for a particu1ar budget: in this use RM350,000. The full 1ist of l0 sites could only be implemented if a budget of RM500,000 were allocated. If the authority is receiving local political or other pressures to treat a site which is
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outside this list or below the cut-off level, then the table can be used to point out that resources should be concentrated at the sites where greater benefits are likely to occur. This is more 1ikely to yield the best contribution to the nation’s casualty reduction targets. In some uses a site may be at a location which is included within a major capital works programme such as a flyover or traffic signals. If the time at which these are scheduled for introduction is fairly close, it may be best to “do nothing” at this stage and incorporate necessary work within the major scheme. If, however, the scheme is unlikely to be carried out for 2 or 3 years, then short-term (perhaps lower-cost) measures will probab1y be justified . For this reason and others which might lead to “s1ippage” in timetables, it is always worth investigating more sites and preparing more schemes than can be carried out in the
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current budget period to allow for these minor re-allocations of funds. In practice “easy” sites are normally best tackled first to yield cost effective results as quickly as possible. However, it is likely that the “harder” sites, which may require more staff resources to study extensively, will have high numbers of accidents. These sites should not thus be put on one side and forgotten about.

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REFERENCES
1. ROYAL SOCIETY FOR THE PREVENTION OF ACCIDENTS. Road safety engineering manual. RoSPA, Cannon House, The Priory Queensway, B4 6BS, Birmingham - 1992. ACCIDENT REDUCTION 2000 GROUP. Progress Report December 1993. Transportation Dept, Hertfordshire County Council, Goldings, SG14 2PY, Hertford - 1994. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF AUSTRALIAN STATE ROAD AUTHORITIES. Guide to traffic engineering practise: part 4-Road crashes. NAASRA, 2, Dind Street, PO Box 489, Milsons Point, NSW 2061-1988 ANDREASSEN, D C. Strategies for safety problems. Australian Road Research Board. Research Report ARR163. ARRB, 500 Burwood Highway, Vermont South, Victoria-1989 TRANSPORT & ROAD RESEARCH LABORATORY. Towards safer roads in developing countries: a guide for planners and engineers. TRRL & Oversea’s Development Admin., Old Wokingham Road, RG11 6AU, Crowthorne-1991 RADIN UMAR RADIN SOHADI. Analisis Terperinci Kemalangan Jalan Raya: Projek Pilot Seremban, Shah Alam dan Petaling Jaya. JK3P, Laporan Penyelidikan No. 4. Majlis Keselamatan Jalan Raya Malaysia, Wisma Semantan, Jalan Gelanggang, 50490 Kuala Lumpur-1993 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC. Report on improvement of the traffic accident recording and analysis system in Malaysia. UN ST/ESCAP/478, Bangkok-1985

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

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CHAPTER VI IMPLEMENTATION
6:0 INTRODUCTION
Having selected an appropriate measure or package of measures to deal with the accident problems at a site or area, the next stage is detailed design and construction. It is not within the scope of this Guide to cover in depth the actual detailed design or physical implementation. This will generally be the responsibility of another appropriate department. However, it is essential that the team who made the scheme recommendation continue to be involved. The road safety audit is discussed and general advice on the safety of construction work noted. the technical term for the systematic checking of safety aspects of new schemes carried out on the public road. Although it is assumed that national standards will be followed in any design unless unusual local conditions dictate a departure (which needs special approval), a combination of elements perhaps close to their respective recommended minimum standard, may combine to create safety problems. Safety audit seeks to address such problems . At present the UK Institute of Highway Engineers’ Guidelines1 are being applied in Malaysia but these should be amended to suit local conditions as experience is gained. 6:8.1.2 Aims Of The Safety Audit To ensure that all road schemes operate as safely as possible. To ensure that preventable potential accident-generating elements are not present in a completed scheme, for example ,moving lamp columns to the back of the footway. To ensure suitable accident-reducing elements are included in the scheme, for example, "anti-skid" surfacing on down hill approach to traffic signals, guard rail and chevron boards on unavoidably sharp bend, crash cushion before essential solid structure. 6:8.1.3 Organisation Of The Audit Safety audit should be part of the overall safety management strategy for the road authority within its Road Safety Plan. An arbitration procedure should be agreed in use of differences in opinion.
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STEP 8: Detailed Design And Installation
6:8.1 Detailed Design As stated above, the next stage after selecting an appropriate remedial measure will usual1y be detailed design. This is likely to be carried out by a different unit to those investigating the problems, and is beyond the scope of this Guide. However, the design drawings will, of course, need to be based on the proposals/outline plans of the accident investigators and this same team should also remain actively involved with the designers. 6:8.1.1 Road Safety Audit Road safety audit is a means of accident prevention rather than accident reduction (a change in philosophy to the previous chapters). It is the application of safety experience to ensure that future safety problems are not designed into new schemes. It is discussed here because ideally an audit should also be carried out on safety remedial work, both at the design stage and again immediately after the scheme implementation: that is, prior to opening to normal traffic. Safety audit is simply the
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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia is overlooked. However, the audit team should not rely solely on these lists. The auditors should imagine “walking” or “riding” the scheme, and should physically do this at the final audit stage to check, for example, that signs are of the correct type and in the right place, road markings and island are correctly placed and that there are no unforseen conflicts between the treatment and other existing site features. Although the audit team should discuss their findings with the design team, a formal report should always be produced. This should state the potential safety problems as precisely as possible and should include a recommendation or options for improvement. The recommendation should be in outline form only and it may be desirable to annotate copies of the original scheme drawings. The scheme should be monitored and feedback given to the design team. 6:8.2 Installation As stated above, it is beyond the scope of this Guide to include guidance on all engineering aspects of altering existing road geometry or installing countermeasure devices. This section is thus limited to general advice on maintaining safety during installation. 6:8.2.1 Safety At Roadworks Accidents tend to occur at a higher rate at roadworks sites and involve more vehicles than on normally operating sections of the road network. A study of major roadwork sites in the UK2 found that, despite the fact that the contraflow sites were genera1ly well signed and laid out, accidents still occurred 1.6 times more frequently than on non-roadworks sections, and the percentage of accidents involving 4 or more vehicles was 29% compared with only 8% without works. It issuspected that the ratio may be considerably higher than this in Malaysia, particularly at sites where advance warning signs are poor.
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In a road authority it is likely that safety audit will be carried out within the accident investigation/road safety unit, though preferably by more than one person. Before deciding on who should carry out the audit the following should be considered: The audit team should be independent of the design team. It should contain (and must certainly be led by) persons with safety engineering experience. A knowledge of design standards is important. Other specialists such as traffic signals and structural engineers may also need to be consulted depending on the scheme. The police may also be required, particularly in the latter stages of the audit, where special road users, requirements may need consideration. 6:8.1.4 When To Carry Out The Audit Safety audits can be performed at the following stages: Feasibility study Completion of preliminary design Completion of detailed design Prior to opening to traffic Other times on an informal basis 6:8.1.5 The Audit Task Information such as plans, list of standards followed, departures made traffic and pedestrian counts, and accident records should be collected from the design team. It may be helpful to discuss the purpose behind the design of the scheme and it is essentia1to carry out a site visit at a1l stages of the audit. Appropriate check lists1 should be used to systematically ensure no safety problem
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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia their roadworks sites. Often with relatively short-term work due to the extra trouble required, warning signs are not set out sufficiently in advance of the works site or are two few in number: this is particularly hazardous where drivers vision of the site may be obscured by a bend or other traffic. The use of modern electrically-powered flashing arrow lights mounted on trailers tend to provide a more effective means of attracting drivers, attention. Attention should be paid to the use of adequate lengths of “safety zone” or “buffer space” (see Fig.6.4) which provides an escape area if drivers fail to notice the advance warning signs. Lengths of these zones are specified in ref.3. Also, tapers of traffic cones to close off a lane before the work area, or to move traffic into other contraflow lanes, are often not made long enough. The standards should again be followed to ensure that the traffic movement is gradual, and thus smoother and safer. 6:8.3 Implementation log It is important to keep a record of the precise dates of the beginning and completion of major parts of the remedial work for all jobs. This is essential for the monitoring of the scheme (see following chapter). Similarly, details of all costs involved, including variation orders, must be kept. The actual costs often differ considerably from original estimates, and this record will facilitate a more reliable cost-benefitanalysis.

It is very important, therefore, that countermeasure installations themselves are made as safe as possible. The road engineer must attempt to regularly enforce contractors to follow the standards laid down in Arahan Teknik 2C/853 for traffic control, temporary signs and work zones at
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REFERENCES
1. INSTITUTION OF HIGHWAYS AND TRANSPORTATION. Guidelines for the safety audit of highways. IHT, 3 Lygon Place, Ebury Street, SWIW OJS, London 1990. MARLOW M, and R D COOMBE. A study of the safety of major motorway roadworks in 1987. Research report RR223. Transport and Road Research Laboratory, Old Wokingham Road, RG11 6AU, Crowthorne - 1989 JABATAN KERJA RAYA. Manual on traffic control devices, temporary signs and work zones control . Arahan Teknik (Jalan) 2C/85. Cawangan Jalan, Ibu Pejabat JKR, Jalan Sultan Salahuddin, 50582 Kuala Lumpur - 1985.

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CHAPTER VII EVALUATION
7:0 INTRODUCTION
Having introduced a countermeasure or package of measures it is important to establish the effectiveness of the safety engineering work carried out; first to check that nothing has gone wrong and that it is working as intended, and later to learn lessons which may influence future decisions on improvements. This chapter emphasises the need to monitor by observing the changes at the site in operation. To evaluate these it concentrates on accident changes and describes the simple statistical tests needed to obtain. It is essential to carry out the monitoring effectively, not least to avoid the “bad publicity” which could occur if a road safety scheme was seen to be actually causing accidents. Recording the results of the monitoring measures is also important to build up a database of types of treatment and the effects they produced to provide information for future safety engineering work. 7:9.2 Measures Used In Monitoring For monitoring or measuring the effect of a safety improvement, the technique employed is usually by “before” and “after” analysis. The most important measure of success is, of course, whether the safety work has improved the accident situation at the site. This will always need to be assessed for a scheme and statistical methods for evaluation will be discussed in the next Step. A simple visual method that has been used, though is perhaps more suitable for mass action plans rather than single sites, is that cumulative accident numbers (& types) are plotted together with their cumulative mean. Fig.7.1(from ref.1)is an example of this method of data presentation, and illustrates that the daytime running headlight campaign in Malaysia was apparently being effective in reducing those accidents related to daytime conspicuity (MSTOX = motorcycles moving straight or turning when other road users cross their path), whilst having no effect on night-time accidents. In the table of Fig.7.l the cumulative mean number of related accidents has been calculated. The cumulative mean is obtained by simply adding on the average monthly accident frequency over the before period (in this case 6 months) to each month after the first one. As long as the standard deviation is not large, the two comparable lines of
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STEP 9 Monitoring
7:9.1 Initial Observations The treated site should be observed immediately after completion of the construction and regular visits made in the following days, weeks or months until the team is satisfied that the scheme is operating in the way expected. It is strongly advised that my earlier behavioural measurements that were made during the investigation stage of Step5 (eg, traffic conflict counts, speed measurements, skid resistance) are now repeated as this will lend weight to any argument for making further changes at the site or, indeed, proving success. It can happen, for instance, that some feature of a scheme may produce an unforseen reaction in drivers which creates a potentially hazardous situation. Monitoring should highlight this problem at an early stage so that appropriate action can be taken quickly to remove this danger. At best it may be possible to alleviate this danger easily, for example, by a realignment of kerb lines to prevent a hazardous manoeuvre. At worst, it could lead to the complete withdrawal of a scheme and need to reassess alternative schemes.
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cumulative accidents and cumulative mean accidents lie close together during the before period, but after implementation of the scheme the cumulative mean line represents what would normally be expected if no action had been taken, and the amount they drift apart (marked * in Fig.7.1) represents the effect of the measure. However, to be sure that the random nature of accidents has been taken into account, it will normally be necessary to wait for several years for a valid result to be available. More immediate feedback is often necessary which is why the above method is suggested. Other behavioural data, as mentioned in 7:9.1, can also be collected to give indications that a scheme is working. It would, of course, be impractical to carry out detailed behavioural studies for all minor alterations, but studies may be particularly important for expensive schemes like areaCawangan Jalan, Ibu Pejabat JKR, K.L

wide or mass action treatments. It must be noted, however, that non-accident variables have the disadvantage that they do not give direct measures of the size of safety improvement. There are practically no variables for which the precise relation to accidents is known. This means that a measured reduction in mean speed, for example, cannot be translated into an estimate for the number of accidents saved: this is a considerable drawback. However, before carrying out a behavioural “after” study it is generally better to wait for a period of about 2 months after the scheme has been operating. This serves as a “settling in” period during which regular users get used to a new road feature and any learning effects have disappeared. Some of the factors that may need to be examined (see also Step5,Chap IV) are noted below:
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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia 7:9.2.5 Public Perception Often one of the main reasons why an area-wide scheme has been implemented is due to campaigns by residents for something to be done. One of the most important parts of an area-wide scheme, therefore, is public consultation .Thus, an important monitoring measure is how the residents and other road users feel about the safety elements of the scheme after implementation. 7:9.2.6 Effects On Other Areas It is important to examine whether the scheme has led to an increase in accidents, traffic speeds and volumes in adjacent areas. 7:9.3 Control Data In most of the above monitoring measures (and particularly accident changes) it is necessary to take into account other factors not affected by the treatment which might also influence that measure. Examples are: a change in speed limit on roads which include the site; national road safety campaigns; traffic management schemes which might affect volume of traffic. These changes may be compensated for by comparing the same “before” and “after” periods with accidents (or other measurements) at “control” sites which are untreated. Control data can be either by matched pairs or area controls. A matched pair control site should be similar to the treated site in general characteristics and also geographically fairly close to it (but not close enough to be affected by my traffic diversion). This is so that the control will be subject to the same local variations which might affect safety (eg. weather, traffic flows, enforcement campaigns). Although the matched pair is the best statistical method to use, in practice it is very difficult to find other sites with the same problems which are left untreated purely to carry out statistical tests. Area controls which comprise anumber of sites are, therefore, much more frequently used.
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7:9.2.1 Speed Of Traffic If speed reduction is one of the objectives of the scheme then speeds should obviously be monitored. Similar and appropriate locations should be carefully chosen for the before and after studies preferably using automatic equipment. If radar guns are used then these need to be unobtrusive otherwise warning signals invariably given by drivers in the opposing direction will yield unreliable results. The t-distribution can be used to compare whether my changes in the mean speeds in the two periods of measurement are statistically significant (see Appendix G). 7:9.2.2 Traffic Conflicts As mentioned earlier these are generally of use at junctions only. The “after” study should be carried out in the same conditions and for the same periods as the “before” study, and preferably using the same observers (to minimise subjectivity between individuals). The frequencies of occurrence of conflicts cm be analysed in the same way as the methods used for accidents, as outlined in the next Step. 7:9.2.3 Traffic Volumes If the measure is expected to affect manoeuvres at a junction or drivers choice of route in any other way, then it is desirable to collect traffic flow data throughout the local network. It may also be necessary to expand this survey to provide origin and destination information so that estimates in through-traffic can be obtained to determine how this has been affected by the scheme. 7:9.2.4 Travel Times In some cases monitoring may require an estimate of changes in travel time for residents and through-traffic. This will be important where traffic severance forms part of the scheme, and traffic is being re-routed.

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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia that due to other sources. Some of the other factors that need to be considered are discussed below:7:10.1.1 Changes In The Environment This feature was mentioned in the last section of Step 9 whereby a change in the environment or driving habits can affect the accidents occurring at the study site. For example, a change in the nationa1 speed limit for the class of road at the site, or closure of a nearby junction to the site producing a marked change in traffic patterns. This feature can be taken into account by the use of control site data but for this to be valid it is important that these other sites experience exactly the same changes as the site under evaluation. 7:10.1.2 Random Fluctuation As explained in Chapter I, the rare and random nature of road accidents can lead to quite large fluctuations in frequencies occurring at a site from year to year, even though there has been no change in the underlying accident rate. This extra variability makes the effect of the treatment more difficult to detect; but a test of statistical significance can be used to determine whether the observed change in accident frequency is likely to have occurred by chance or not. 7:10.1.3 Regression To The Mean This effect complicates evaluations at high accident or blackspot sites in that accidents at these sites tend to reduce even when no treatment is applied. Even if a 3.year total is considered at the worst accident sites in m area, it is likely that the accident frequencies were at the high end of the naturally occurring random fluctuations, and subsequent years will yield lower numbers. This is known as regression to the mean.

when choosing control sites: they should be as similar as possible to treats sites; they should not be affected by the treatment; there should be more than 10 times the number of accidents at the contorl sites. For example, if the traffic signals at a site are modified then a control group of sites might be a11other signalised sizes in the town. But if there were only two other signalized junctions and these had lower flows and much fewer accidents as did other uncontrolled junctions, then it would be better to use all signalized junctions in the State.

STEP 10 Evaluation
7:10.1 The Effect On Accidents This step of the procedure focuses on evaluation of whether the treatment has been successful in achieving its objective of reducing the number of accidents. This therefore requires comparison of the number of accidents in the target group before the treatment with the number after treatment (with the assumption of a similar before pattern if nothing were done), and to study whether my other accident type has increased. This Guide does not attempt to delve deeply into the different statistical techniques, but to suggest practical and simple ways in which schemes can be evaluated. The following sections generally refer to “a site” but the same techniques can be used for mass, route and area-wide action as long as appropriate control groups are chosen. The main problem when using accident data for evaluation (even assuming high recording accuracy) is to distinguish between a change due to the treatment and
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As an example consider Table 7.1 which gives the actual numbers of recorded accidents involving personal injury for 122 nodes in the town of Seremban over a two year period. For sites with 5 or more accidents in year l there were overall fewer accidents in the following year. Conversely, sites with 4 or less acc1dents have more accidents in year 2. If an accident countermeasure had been installed at the worst 9 sites at the end of year l then a highly significant reduction of 37% might be claimed after year 2, even though the measure had been completely ineffective (this same result would be obtained by doing nothing). An even higher false resu1t would be obtained if the other 113 sites were used as a control group. Possibly the most straightforward way of allowing for both the regression to mean effect and changes in the environment would be to use control sites chosen in exactly the same way as the treated sites, and identified as having similar problems, but left untreated. In practice, it is both difficult to find matched control sites and, if investigated, to justify not treating them. There has been much debate among statisticians over many years on this subject and the best way to deal with it (see refs. 2,3,4,5).
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The effect does, however, tend to be diminished if longer periods of time are selected. For example, Abbess et a1.3, in a study in two counties of the UK calculated that regression-to-mean had the following effects at high accident sites(ie. more than 8 injury accidents per year), on average, on their accident rate:Period of accident data considered 1 year 2 year 3 year Regression to mean change in annual accident rate 15 to 26% 7 to 15% 5 to 11%

Due to the uncertainty and complexity of allowing for this effect reliably at any site it is suggested, therefore, that where the highest accident sites are chosen for treatment, then the above order of allowance should be made when calculating any estimate of the actual reduction in accidents the countermeasures have produced. 7:10.1.4 Accident Migration There is still some controversy over whether or not this effect exists but it has been reported by several researchers 6,7,8. It is simply that an increase in accidents tends to be observed at sites adjoining a successfully
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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia 7:10.2 Before And After Periods There are a number of points to taken into account when choosing periods to compare before and after the treatment was applied:Before and after periods at the treated site should be identical to that at the control site. The period during which work was carried out should be omitted from the study. If this period was not recorded precisely, a longer period containing it should be omitted. The before period should be long enough to provide a good statistical estimate of the true accident rate (so as to remove as far as possible random fluctuations).It should not, however, include periods where the site had different characteristics. Three years is widely regarded as a reasonable period to use. The same applies to the after period which ideally should also be three years. However, results are often required much sooner than this. A one year after period can initially be used if there is no reason why this should bias the result (as long as the same period is used at the control sites). However, sensitivity is lost and the estimate of the countermeasure’s success should be updated later when more data becomes available. 7:10.3 Standard Tests On Accident Changes In evaluating a treatment the answers to the following questions will usually be required: Has the treatment been effective? If so, how effective has it been? It is assumed that the user of this Guide will

treated site giving an apparent transfer or “migration” of accidents. It can be detected by comparing the accident frequencies in the surrounding area before and after implementation of treatments at sites in the area with a suitable control. It is unclear precisely why this effect occurs but is suspected that drivers are “compensating” for the improved safety at treated sites by being less cautious elsewhere. Again, there are no established techniques yet available to estimate this effect for a particular site. The first reported occurrence of this feature 6 found an overa1l increase in surrounding areas of about 9% and a later study8 of a larger number of sites estimated 0.2 accidents/site/year. 7:10.1.5 Risk Compensation This is an even more controversial effect, though related to the previous section. The philosophy of “risk compensation” or “risk homeostasis theory” suggests that road users will change their risk-taking behaviour to compensate for any improvements in road safety. That is, road users tend to maintain a fixed level of accepted risk, so will take more risks when given greater accident protection, for example, if provided with seat belts or anti-lock brakes. Whilst again the extent of this effect is extremely difficult to monitor, the engineer should be aware of the possibility of risk compensation when introducing countermeasures. For example, a scheme giving pedestrians more apparent priority using speed tables or raised pedestrian crossings (which give the impression of extensions to the footway) may lead the pedestrian into taking much less care in crossing the road. For further reading on this subject see references 9,10.

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need to interpret accident data practically without necessarily understanding the underlying statistical theory. For this purpose it is sufficient to assume that the before and after accidents are drawn from a normal or Gaussian distribution. This means that we can use the Chi-square test to answer the first question above, ie. whether the changes at the site were statistically significant. However, let us first consider the size of that change by using the k test. 7:10.3.1 The k Test It is possible that although accident levels reduced at a treated site in an “after” period, the general level of accidents is also reducing; the “real” reduction at the site due to the treatment thus being less than the actual numbers observed (ie. over estimating effectiveness). Conversely, if the general level of accidents is increasing an underestimate of the treatment would be obtained. The k test can be used to show how the accident numbers at a site change relative to control data. For a given site or group of similarly treated sites, let:a b c d then = before accidents at site = after accidents at site = before accidents at control = after accidents at control k = b/a d/c

If k < l then there has been a decrease in accidents relative so the control; if k = l then there has been no change relative to the control; and if k > 1 then there has been an increase relative to the control. The percentage change at the site is given by

Example: Let us assume that Table 7.2 gives the annual injury accident totals for a priority T-junction in a semi-urban area which had Stop signs on the minor road originally, but where a roundabout was installed three years ago. The control data used are accidents on all other priority junctions in the District over exactly the same 6 year period.

Therefore, as k < 1there has been a decrease in accidents relative to the controls of:

or, if any of the frequencies are zero then 1/2 should be added to each, ie:
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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia 7:10.3.3 Group Of Sites With Same Treatment For a number of sites, N, which have had the same treatment, the overall effect is a rather more complex calculation, ie. by solving the following equation for K over all the sites, ie. i = l to N. The other symbols are as in previous equations.

7:10.3.2 The Chi-Squared Test It is important to answer whether the above change in accidents was indeed produced by the treatment or whether this occurred by chance. This test thus determines whether the changes are statistically significant. with reference to the above table chi-squared is calculated by the formula:

For testing, the natural logarithm of a variable such as K is usually found to have a more symmetrical distribution (amenable to standard statistical treatments), and the standard error, σ, of loge K can be approximated to the following:

Example: Now looking at the chi-squared distribution table (Appendix D) and the first line (one degree of freedom, v=1), the value for chisquare of 5.38 lies between 3.84 and 5.41. This corresponds to a value of significance level (on the column header line) between 0.05 and 0.02, which is normally quoted as greater than the lower level, ie. better than the 5% level of significance. This means that them is only a 5% like1ihood (or l in 20 chance) that the change in accidents is due so random fluctuation. Another way of stating this is that there is a 95% (100% - 5%) confidence that a real change in accidents has occurred at the junction. The 5% level or better is widely accepted as the level in which the remedial action has certainly worked, though the 10% level can be regarded as an indication of an effect.

The following ratio should then be calculated using loge of the value of K calculated above and its standard error from the previous equation:

and if this value is outside the range ±1.96 (Student's t), then the change is statistically significant at least the 5 per cent level. Now to test whether the changes at the treated sites are in fact producing the same effect on accident rates, calculate the following chi-squared value.

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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia to the treatment is negligible, the First Year Rate of Return (FYRR) is simply given by:

If this is significant with N-l degrees of freedom [refer to the (N-1)th] row in the table of Appendix D, where N is the number of treated sites], then unfortunately, the changes at the sizes are not producing the same effect. If non-significant, then it is likely that they are producing the same effect. 7:10.4 Economic Evaluation For every scheme the evaluation should include an indication of the benefits actually achieved in relation to cost. In the previous sections we have already seen how we can determine a best estimate of the size of the effect on accidents. Considering again the example in Fig.7.2, the estimate of the reduction was 72.2%. If the site was one of the worst blackspots in the District, then we ought to make some allowance for the regression-to-mean effect. From Section 7:10.1.3,let us assume this amounts to as much as 11%, such that our best estimate of the true reduction in accidents due to installation of the roundabout is 61.2% (72.2%-11%). Since the original number of accidents at the site was 20, this represents a saving of 12.24 accidents over the study period. As the “before” period in this case was 3 years, the best estimate of savings is 4.08 accidents per year. It should be noted that only injury accidents have been considered here but if there had been reliable numbers of damage-only accidents which were also reduced, then a separate costing of these should perhaps also be carried out. Using the average injury accident cost of RM 33,000 used in Step7 (see Section 5:7.2), this accident saving amounts to RM134,640 per year. This figure is then compared to the costs of the treatment which totalled say, RM150,000. Assuming delay to traffic due
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The above FYRR figure should be rounded so 90% to give m indication of the possible effect of using this treatment in the future. This is the same technique as outlined in Chapter 5 and the Net Present Value figures can also be calculated for completed schemes following the example given in that Chapter. This would be particularly advisab1e if there are considerable new maintenance costs associated with the installed measure. It is only by evaluating and recording results in this way that a listing of implemented remedial measures and their effectiveness can be built up for the use of road authorities throughout the country. 7:10.5 Evaluating Overall Effectiveness This chapter has concentrated on evaluating the effects of specific schemes. In addition there is a need for the regular strategy document mentioned in Chapter I to provide a summary of the overall achievements of road safety programmes. As background information in the strategy document it is normal to present and examine aggregate accident statistics over the State, District or Municipality, broken down in various ways by, for example, Class of road user, class of road. These aggregate figures can be useful not only in indicating general priorities but also in evaluating the effects of wide-scale safety campaigns, legislative and/or enforcement changes. However, as schemes are usua1ly localised, their effects are often difficult to detect among much larger accident totals. Hence in the strategy document or Road Safety Plan it will probably be better to give a summary
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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia of safety efforts taking place and the relative success of the various methods used.

listing of the effectiveness of all the low-cost schemes (see Appendix A examples). This is more informative than a single overall figure as it displays the range

REFERENCES
1. RADIN UMAR R S, G M MACKAY, B L HILLS. Preliminary analysis of motorcycle accidents:short-term impacts of the running headlights campaign and regulation in Malaysia.To be published in J.of Traffic Medicine-1995 HAUER E,& P BYER. Bias by selection: the accumcy of an unbiased estimator. Accid-Anal.& Prevention-15, 5, pp323-328-1983. ABBESS C, D JARRETT, C C WRIGHT-Accidents at blackspots: estimating the effectiveness of remedial treatment,with special reference to the ‘regression to mean’ effect. Traffic Engineering & Control, 22 10-1981. WRIGHT C C, C R ABBESS & D F JARRETT. Estimating the regression-to-mean effect associated with road accident blackspot treatment: towards a more realistic approach. Accid. Anal.& Prevention. 20, 3, pp199-214, - 1986. MOUNTAIN L,B FAWAZ & L SINENG. The assessment of changes in accident frequencies on link segments: a comparison of four methods.Traffic Engineering & Control, 33, 7 -1992. BOYLE, A J & C C WRIGHT. Accident migration after remedial treatment at accident blackspots. Traffic Engineering & Control, 25, 5 -1984. PERSAUD, B.Migration of accident risk after remedial treatment at accident blackspots. Traffic Engineering & Control, 28,1-1987. MOUNTAIN L, & B FAWAZ. The effects of engineering measures on safety at adjacent sites. Traffic Engineering & Control, 33, 1-1992 ADAMS J. Risk and freedom:the record of road safety regulation. Transport Publishing Projects. Cardiff -1985. TRIMPOP R M, & G J S WILDE Challenges to accident prevention: the issue of risk compensation behaviour. STYX Publications, Postbus 2659, 9704 CR Groningen, The Netherlands -1994.

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CHAPTER VIII SUMMARY
Summary Of Chapter I - INTRODUCTION The main points covered in this chapter can be summarised as follows: Road accidents are a serious problem in Malaysia with more than one person in every 450 of the population suffering injury or death on the road each year. This Guide focuses on the Engineering aspects of improving safety. The Guide also concentrates on the accident reduction approach (although the priciples applied in devising colinsermeasures also be adopted at the design stage in order to prevent accidents) The four basic strategies for reducing accidents are: -Single sites/blackspots -Mass action schemes -Route action plans -Area-wide schemes The national casualty reduction targets should be disaggregated to the local level, and a planned giving details of how they will be met, and reporting progress/success. An annual Road Safety Plan should be produced by all road authorities to include a local accident analysis, statement of the targets, giving details of how they will be met, and reporting progress/success. Summary Of Chapter II - ACCIDENT DATABASE Maintenance of a reliable accident database is m essential element of safety work since it constitutes the base measure used to: i) identify the nature and location of problems, and ii) to monitor the effects of remedial action taken. Accident Investigation Units should be set up in all road authorities with one full-time staff per 400-1000 accidents per year. The data originates with the Police but the responsibilities of various authorities are summarised below:Balai Police - Attend scene of accident and record details - Enter basic details in 24.hour incident report book - Open investigation file (for all injury and some damage-only accidents) - Complete POL27 form Output: - Main copy of POL27 to HQ - Pages 4 & 15 copies to District JKR/Local Government Office - Investigation papers for court case Police HQ-Bukit Aman - Receive POL27 forms, check, and enter onto mainframe computer - Download data to MAAP files Output: - Send copy of MAAP files to HPU

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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia - Single site listing by worst nodes and links, ie. descending order of accidents. - Mass action sites can be ranked according to numbers of accidents of a selected factor (eg. night time accidents) - For Area wide action , residential areas need to be divided into approximately l km squares (though irregular shapes bounded by rail lines, roads, rivers etc. will ultimately be used).These areas are usually ranked by numbers of vulnerable road user accidents.

JKR District Office - Produce appropriate scale maps marked with landmarks. - Check POL27 forms for accident location on all State & Federal roads - Fill in Section No, 100m distance, map code, X-Y coordinate coding. Output: - Completed pages 4 & 15 of POL27 send to HPU Local Government Department - Produce appropriate nodal scale maps. - Check POL27 forms for accident location on all Urban principal and minor roads. - Fill in Node, Link Nos, map code, X-Y coordinate coding. Output: - Completed pages 4 & 15 of POL27-send to HPU Highway Planning Unit (MOW) - Coordinate all location data - Merge this with data from Police HQ into MAAP computer files. Output: - Complete data set copy sent to Police HQ - Appropriate data files made available to all authorities. Summary Of Chapter III - INVESTIGATION

STEP 2: Preliminary Accident Analysis
Test sites in first listing to ensure high accident numbers have not occurred by chance. Produce stick diagrams to help look for common patterns of accident.

STEP 3: Initial Site Visit
Check plans are up to date. Visualise accidents on record to confirm manoeuvres and make preliminary judgement of causes. Photograph site. Classify sites if possible as ‘easy’ or ‘hard’.

Step 1: Identifying And Prioritising Sites
Define a reaction level above which action should be taken. Search data ideally covering a period of 3 years using MAAP to produce initial ranking of sites. These can be:- Route action listing in descending order of accident totals ( or points) per Section Number per year.
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Summary Of Chapter IV - DIAGNOSIS

STEP 4 Collection Of Further Data And Analysis
Study accident data at the site in more detail including sketch diagrams, and produce collision diagrams. Classify accidents into types. Amend stick diagrams to include my further information and search for dominant accident patterns. Gather any available data such as traffic flow, dates of road alterations. Determine likely human factors any perceptual traps.

iii) Use in future evaluation of remedial work implemented. Summary Of Chapter V - SELECTION

STEP 6 Select Posibble Countermeasures
A road hierarchy should be estab1ished. Decide on economic objectives for the different scheme types (eg.50% FYRR at single sites to10-25% area-wide action). Several treatment proposals for a site should be considered (lists of schemes shown to be effective in several countries are given), and each should:- aim to reduce the prevalent accident type(s); - not increase other types of accident at the site or in the surrounding area; - not cause undesirable effects on other traffic movements or on the environment. For area-wide residential schemes, aim to reduce speeds as opposed to restricting vehicle movements and maintain good consultation with locals and the emergency services. Consider whether schemes need to incorporate road user training and media campaigns.

STEP 5: Site Studies And Analysis
Make further site visit and look for likely features which may be contributing to accidents. Plan the following further studies, as necessary: - Traffic flow manoeuvre counts. - Pedestrian road crossing flow in marked road lengths if relevant. - Speed measurements on approach to junctions or bends indication of possible problems. - Take still photographs and/or video as a record for report, or use to study problem behaviour. - Conduct traffic conflict study most useful at junctions to :

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Interim Guide On Identifying, Priortising And Treating Hazardous Locations On Roads In Malaysia Monitoring should be carried out at different levels: for the whole area covered by the road authority; immediately after each individual scheme; and for longer term conclusions. Variables other than accident frequency can be used to monitor the effectiveness, particularly in relation to the objectives of the particular countermeasure. A series of other factors are strongly recommended for area-wide schemes. It is important to monitor other surrounding areas which could be affected by the scheme and to identify as large a group of control sites as possible of similar nature but well away from the study sites.

STEP 7: Priortise Treatments & Sites
Estimate costs and benefits of each treatment for which the following is required: - capital costs - estimate of benefits - estimate of any disbenefits. Select most cost-effective solution in terms of best First Year Rate of Return (FYRR) or best Net Present Value to Present Value Cost ratio (NPV/PVC). Only those schemes with FYRR > 50% should initially be considered. Draw up list of sites in priority order of best NPV/PVC ratio, and decide on cut-off of sites to be treated within the budget. Summary Of Chapter VI - IMPLEMENTATION

STEP 10: Evaluation
Remedial action schemes should be evaluated so that knowledge can be gained about relative performances. This will assist decision making on efficient allocation of resources in the future. Statistical tests should be used in before and after studies to compare accident changes at the treated sites with the control sites. The investigator should make allowance for the known other factors that can affect the estimate of the effect of the measure on accidents (eg. regression-to-mean). As a guide to overall effectiveness of a road authority’s road safety programme, a summary list of individual schemes, grouped in an appropriate manner, should be produced and included in the Road Safety Plan document.

STEP 8: Detailed Design And Installation
Carry out a road safety audit at the design stage and immediately before opening to traffic. Ensure adequate safety standards are followed at the safety improvement construction site. Maintain a 1og of dates of the works and of actual costs. Summary Of Chapter VII - EVALUATION

STEP 9: Monitoring
The importance of monitoring after scheme implementation is stressed.

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APPENDIX A Example of Road Safety Plans
This Appendix contains extracts from recent road safety strategy documents or Road Safety Plans of two highway authorities in the United Kingdom, ie. Doncaster Metropolitan Borough Council and Berkshire County Council. They are included as examples only of the format and type of information which, it is recommended, be incorporated in similar published documents in Malaysia. Road Safety Plans are now produced annually by most road authorities in the United Kingdom regardless of the current success or failure of each in achieving its target. They serve as a means of ensuring that the road authority concentrates on managing its particular problems effectively, and provide the public and higher authorities with a valuable record of the efforts it is making on their behalf towards improving the safety of the road network. It should be noted that Berkshire County Council, having responsibility for a larger road network, have now appointed a commercial highways and planning consultants, the Babtie Group, to carry out the task of producing their Plan.

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2.0 PROGRESS TOWARDS TARGET
Berkshire Progress In 1989 when the County Council adopted the casualty reduction target, some 4354 casualties had resulted from accidents on Berkshire’s roads. In order to achieve the target reduction of one third of the average 1981-85 figure by the year 2000, this figure must reduced to 2847. Progress towards the target is shown opposite. Whilst casualty numbers continue to decline it can be seen that an increased rate of reduction is now required if the objective is to be achieved. National Progress For comparison purpose the national progress towards the year 2000 target is also shown opposite. It can be seen performance in Berkshire is better than the national average. It can be seen that both the Berkshire and National trends show the same effect: an early and relatively rapid reduction as the “easier” sites are tackled, followed by a levelling off as more difficult problems (often related to behaviour as much as to the road layout) have to be tackled.

WHILST CASUALTY NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECLINE, MORE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS ARE REQUIRED TO MEET THE YEAR 2000 TARGET

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3.0 ACCIDENT TRENDS AND ANALYSIS
An analysis of accident trends has shown that speeding particularly in urban areas continues to be a major factor in accident causation. The young and inexperienced road users feature predominantly in Berkshire's accident statistics, and the fact that two-thirds of all casualties resulting from accidents on Berkshire's roads are the drivers and passengers of cars is a cause for concern. It is at these key areas that resources must be targeted if the year 2000 targets is to be met. The Size Of The Problem Throughout 1993 on roads in Berkshire there was a total of 2773 accidents involving personal injury. These resulted in 3672 casualties of which: 33 347 292 were fatal were serious injuries 3 were slight injuries

The total number of fatalities and serious injuries has declined every year since 1989 and now represents a 65% reduction over the 1981 - 85 average figure.

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The only specific road user group showing and increasing casualties trend is that of car occupants. Casualty levels in this group are currently 10% higher than the 1981-85 average. It is clear that this casualty group holds the key to achieving the casualty reduction target and the County Council's objective in the next few years will be to reduce casualties in this area.

THE KEY TO ACHIEVING THE YEAR 2000 TARGET WILL BE REDUCE TO REDUCE CASUALITIES IN THE CAR OCCUPANT ROAD USER GROUP
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Accidents Locatios In Berkshire As can be seen in the figures below, the majority of accidents in Berkshire take place on urban roads. (i.e. those roads subject to a speed limit of 40mph or less). It is evident that if the casualty reduction target is to be met then a significant proportion of engineering programmes and police enforcement activity must be focused on these areas.

THE COUNTY COUNCIL WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ROAD SAFETY RESOURCES TOWARDS ACCIDENT CONCENTRATIONS, PARTICULARLY THOSE IN URBAN AREAS

Vulnerable Road User Groups In Berkshire The distribution of road traffic casualties by age and road user class shows that inexperienced users of each mode are more likely to be involved in accidents. This is particularly evident with the young car driver since accident records show that over one-third of all accidents involve drivers in the 17 to 24 age range.

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As discussed in later sections, Education Training and Publicity initiatives are directed principally at these inexperienced and hence vulnerable groups. Speed Speeding by drivers and riders is the most common contributory factor to deaths and injuries on Berkshire's roads. A study by the Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) has indicated that between 22 and 32 percent of the accidents studied had excessive speed as a contributory factor. In terms of the 1993 injury road accident figures for Berkshire, this would indicate that speeding had been involved in over 800 injury road accidents. As discussed in later sections, the theme of excessive speed and road safety will play a major part in the County Council's engineering and education programmes and in the enforcement activity of Thames Valley Police.

AN ANALYSIS BY TRL INDICATES THAT A REDUCTION IN AVERAGE SPEED EVERYWHERE OF THE ORDER OF 1 KPH COULD SAVE 5 PERCENT OF ALL INJURY ACCIDENTS

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4.0 ENGINEERING ACTION
The great majority of schemes in the County Council's highway works programme will result in road safety improvements. Indeed the Council's scheme selection procedures are heavily biased towards tackling sites with a persistent injury accident problem. In recognising the importance of reducing the level of accidents on the County's roads the Government allows Supplementary Credit Approval (SCA) to be claimed against engineering projects which can demonstrate potential injury accident savings. Hence it is in the County's interest to promote such schemes above those to which no potential injury accident savings can be ascribed. Recent engineering road safety initiatives are listed below:

TRAFFIC CALMING has continued to be heavily promoted within Berkshire with numerous projects including 20mph zones, chicanes, road narrowings, road humps and mini roundabouts being installed around the County. In recognition of the accidents caused through excessive speed by drivers and riders in urban areas, Berkshire County Council quickly responded to the regulations issued in 1992 by installing the first 22 fixed speed camera sites in Berkshire. This work will continue in 1994/95 with a further 50 sites planned and complements red light enforcement cameras already installed. The first non-trunk road variable speed limit scheme in the country was introduced in Slough. The first Berkshire Toucan crossing is being progressed in Newbury. Berkshire’s 3rd Puffin crossing is being progressed in Thatcham.

Appendix A lists local safety engineering schemes planned for 1994/95 together with comment on their estimated effect on injury accidents over a three year period. As can be seen considerable emphasis will continue to be placed on tackling the problems of speeding in urban area with many speed camera and traffic calming schemes programmed at identified high risk accident sites. Such schemes are seen as one of the prime accident reduction measures currently being implemented in Berkshire and are expected to make a major contribution towards changing attitudes to inappropriate speeds. The County Council carries out a continuous programme of investigation of accident patterns at High Risk Sites. Potential schemes arising from this process are presented to Members for funding consideration The potential for reducing accidents will continue to be taken into account when deciding on the priorities for traffic management works promoted by the Area Highway Sections. Appendix B lists all High Risk sites in Berkshire with comment on action already taken or proposed.

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A minimum of 100 sites will be investigated in depth in 1994/95 either as individual sites or as part of an area wide or route approach. In addition to this, accident investigation will continue to feature predominantly in the County Council's continuing programme of Area Traffic and Transport Studies. The County Council continues to monitor its success in accident remedial work to ensure a cost effective approach to the work. Indeed, this feedback is essential to maintain levels of expertise in this rapidly developing field. Appendix C gives before and after information and clearly demonstrates the cost effectiveness of this work. The County Council continues to improve road safety through its close control of development proposals and liaison with the local Planning Authorities. Every opportunity will be taken to resolve existing road safety problems or prevent others arising as a result of new development. Developer contributions will also be actively sought to enable positive accident prevention and remedial work to be pursued at identified problem sites.

CONSIDERABLE EMPHASIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLACED ON TACKLING THE PROBLEM OF SPEEDING IN VRBANAREAS AT IDENTIFIED HIGH RISKACCIDENT SITES.

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APPENDIX B POL27 Accident Report Form

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APPENDIX C Poisson Probabilities (Single Factor Values)

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APPENDIX D Chi-squared Table

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APPENDIX E Standard Symbol For Collision Diagrams

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APPENDIX F Discount Factor Tables

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APPENDIX G Comparison Of Mean Speed Measurements and T-Distribution Table
COMPARISON OF MEAN SPEED MEASUREMENTS
To determine whether the mean speed of one set of speed measurements is significantly different from another (ie.between a “before” and “after” study), it is necessary to determine the means and standard deviation of the difference in means. Let b1,b2..................bnb the before speed readings and a1,a2,..............ana be the after speed readings we then ca1culate the equations below: Having found the value of t we look at the table over page with (na+nb- 2) degrees of freedom. If the value of t exceeds that for the 5% level (the t =0.05column) we can be 95% conndent that the true mean speed has changed.

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