Nagellan Stiategies ͳ

NewHampshire2012Republican
PresidentialPrimarySurvey
November15
th
– 16
th
,2011
DavidFlaherty
CEO
1 MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the
results of a 746N autodial survey of likely 2012
New Hampshire Republican primary voters and
independent voters that are likely to vote in the
Republican Presidential primary. The interviewing
was conducted on November 15
th
and November
16
th
, 2011. This survey has a margin of error of +/Ǧ
3.59%at the 95 percent confidence interval.
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 2
Nagellan Stiategies ʹ
VoterFrequency
3 MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
Asyoumayknow,independentvotersinNewHampshirecan
voteinthe2012Presidentialprimaryelection.Howlikelyare
youtovoteinthe2012RepublicanPresidentialprimary
election?(Askedtoindependentrespondents)
ExtremelyLikely
VeryLikely
SomewhatLikely
92%
5%
3%
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 4
Nagellan Stiategies ͵
Howlikelyareyoutovoteinthe2012Republican
Presidentialprimarytochooseanomineefor
President?(AskedtoRepublicanrespondents)
ExtremelyLikely
VeryLikely
SomewhatLikely
95%
4% 1%
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 5
CandidateImageRatings
6 MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
Nagellan Stiategies Ͷ
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
71%
50%
54%
48%
38%
20%
28%
30%
34%
39%
9%
20%
16%
18%
23%
2%
Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
49%
32%
19%
AllVoters
NameID:100%
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinionof
RonPaul?
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 7
Men
Women
51%
46%
32%
33%
17%
21%
Republican
Independent
45%
54%
34% 29%
21%
17%
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
54%
55%
62%
55% 62%
41%
30%
30%
37% 27%
5%
14%
8%
8%
10%
1%
1%
Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
59%
31%
10%
NameID:100%
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinionof
NewtGingrich?
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 8
Men
Women
63%
54%
30%
32%
7%
13%
1%
Republican
Independent
68%
45%
22%
45%
10%
9%
1%
AllVoters
Nagellan Stiategies ͷ
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
61%
45%
62%
61%
65%
33%
46%
31%
30% 25%
4%
9% 7%
8%
10%
2%
1%
Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
60%
32%
8%
NameID:100%
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinionof
MittRomney?
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 9
Men
Women
57%
64%
35%
28%
8%
7%
1%
Republican
Independent
63%
56%
28%
37%
9%
6%
1%
AllVoters
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
37%
28%
33%
27%
26%
59%
54% 53%
63%
55%
4%
18% 14% 10%
18%
1%
Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
29%
57%
14%
AllVoters
NameID:100%
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinionof
MicheleBachmann?
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 10
Men
Women
28%
31%
59%
54%
13%
15%
Republican
Independent
32%
25%
52%
64%
16%
11%
Nagellan Stiategies ͸
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
33%
30%
27%
30%
24%
47%
45% 50% 48%
48%
13%
21% 20% 21%
26%
7% 4% 3% 1% 2%
Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
28%
48%
21%
3%
NameID:97%
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinionof
RickSantorum?
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 11
Men
Women
29%
26%
48%
48%
20%
24%
3%
2%
Republican
Independent
31%
23%
45%
52%
21%
23%
3%
2%
AllVoters
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
47% 48%
39%
40%
33%
51%
38%
51%
53%
56%
2%
14% 9% 7%
10%
1%
1%
Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
39%
51%
9%
1%
NameID:91%
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinionof
HermanCain?
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 12
Men
Women
43%
35%
48%
54%
9%
10%
1%
Republican
Independent
44%
32%
46%
58%
9%
10%
1%
AllVoters
Nagellan Stiategies ͹
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
31%
21%
29%
31%
35%
53%
41%
48%
43% 39%
9%
33%
19%
24%
24%
7% 5% 4% 2% 2%
Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
30%
43%
24%
3%
NameID:91%
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinionof
JonHuntsman?
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 13
Men
Women
32%
29%
45%
42%
20%
25%
3%
4%
Republican
Independent
26%
36%
46%
39%
25%
21%
3%
4%
AllVoters
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
33%
25%
27%
14%
17%
65%
60% 62%
74%
67%
2%
15% 10%
12%
15%
1%
1%
Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
21%
66%
12%
1%
NameID:95%
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinionof
RickPerry?
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 14
Men
Women
22%
20%
67%
65%
11%
14%
1%
Republican
Independent
23%
18%
63%
70%
13%
12%
1%
AllVoters
Nagellan Stiategies ͺ
RepublicanPresidential
PrimaryBallotTest
15 MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
Romney
Gingrich
Paul
Cain
Huntsman
Bachmann
Perry
Santorum
Other
Undecided
29%
27%
16%
10%
8%
2%
2% 1%
2%
3%
Ifthe2012RepublicanPresidentialprimaryelectionwasbeingheldtoday,
forwhomwouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereRonPaul,NewtGingrich,
MittRomney,MicheleBachmann,RickSantorum,HermanCain,Jon
Huntsman,RickPerryorsomeothercandidate?
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 16
Nagellan Stiategies ͻ
Women
Men
Total
33%
24%
29%
22%
32%
27%
13%
18%
16%
10%
10%
10%
8%
8%
8%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
2%
1%
1%
1%
2%
1%
2%
7%
3%
3%
Romney Gingrich Paul Cain Huntsman
Bachmann Perry Santorum Other Undecided
Ifthe2012RepublicanPresidentialprimaryelectionwasbeingheld
today,forwhomwouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereRonPaul,Newt
Gingrich,MittRomney,MicheleBachmann,RickSantorum,Herman
Cain,JonHuntsman,RickPerryorsomeothercandidate?(ByGender)
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 17
65+
55Ǧ64
45Ǧ54
35Ǧ44
18Ǧ34
Total
32%
33%
25%
25%
21%
29%
31%
26%
30%
21%
18%
27%
10%
14%
17%
18%
33%
16%
6%
12%
11%
12%
11%
10%
10%
8%
6%
9%
7%
8%
2%
2%
1%
4%
2%
2%
2%
1%
2%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
3%
1%
1%
2%
2%
1%
4%
2%
4%
1%
4%
7%
2%
3%
Romney Gingrich Paul Cain Huntsman
Bachmann Perry Santorum Other Undecided
Ifthe2012RepublicanPresidentialprimaryelectionwasbeingheld
today,forwhomwouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereRonPaul,Newt
Gingrich,MittRomney,MicheleBachmann,RickSantorum,Herman
Cain,JonHuntsman,RickPerryorsomeothercandidate?(ByAge)
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 18
Nagellan Stiategies ͳͲ
Ifthe2012RepublicanPresidentialprimaryelectionwasbeingheld
today,forwhomwouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereRonPaul,Newt
Gingrich,MittRomney,MicheleBachmann,RickSantorum,Herman
Cain,JonHuntsman,RickPerryorsomeothercandidate?(ByParty)
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 19
Independent
Republican
Total
29%
29%
29%
18%
33%
27%
19%
13%
16%
8%
11%
10%
12%
6%
8%
4%
1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
3%
1%
2%
4%
3%
3%
Romney Gingrich Paul Cain Huntsman
Bachmann Perry Santorum Other Undecided
NHPresidentialPrimary
BallotTestTrendLine
Slide20
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
Nagellan Stiategies ͳͳ
Slide21
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
NewHampshire2012RepublicanPresidential
PrimaryBallotTest
NHJournal/MagellanTrendLine
39%
42%
36%
41%
29%
7%
10%
14%
10%
16%
8%
3%
2%
6%
27%
3%
2% 1%
1%
10%
4%
20%
10%
3%
3%
8%
18%
2%
2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Jan4 June15 August17 October13 November16
Romney Paul Gingrich Santorum Bachmann Cain Huntsman Perry
*NotethattheJune15
th
surveyincludedTimPawlenty,SarahPalin,andRudyGiulianiandtheAugust,OctoberandNovembersurveydonot.
VoterOpinionofCain
Allegations
22 MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
Nagellan Stiategies ͳʹ
Dothesexualharassmentallegationsagainst
HermanCainmakeyoumoreorlesslikelyto
voteforhim?
23
23%
46%
31%
MoreLikely LessLikely
NoOpinion
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
TOTAL
Men
Women
11%
11%
11%
12%
15%
9%
26%
26%
26%
20%
18%
23%
31%
30%
31%
Muchmorelikely Somewhatmorelikely
Muchlesslikely Somewhatlesslikely
NoOpinion
24
23%
46%
31%
MoreLikely LessLikely
NoOpinion
Dothesexualharassmentallegationsagainst
HermanCainmakeyoumoreorlesslikelytovote
forhim?(ByGender)
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
Nagellan Stiategies ͳ͵
TOTAL
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
11%
31%
11%
7%
10%
10%
12%
14%
13%
12%
10%
13%
26%
17%
23%
25%
33%
24%
20%
10%
19%
22%
18%
24%
31%
28%
34%
34% 29% 29%
Muchmorelikely Somewhatmorelikely
Muchlesslikely Somewhatlesslikely
NoOpinion
25
Dothesexualharassmentallegationsagainst
HermanCainmakeyoumoreorlesslikelytovote
forhim?(ByAge)
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
23%
46%
31%
MoreLikely LessLikely
NoOpinion
TOTAL
Republican
Independent
11%
11%
10%
12%
14%
9%
26%
21%
32%
20%
21%
18%
31%
33%
31%
Muchmorelikely Somewhatmorelikely
Muchlesslikely Somewhatlesslikely
NoOpinion
26
Dothesexualharassmentallegationsagainst
HermanCainmakeyoumoreorlesslikelytovote
forhim?(ByParty)
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
23%
46%
31%
MoreLikely LessLikely
NoOpinion
Nagellan Stiategies ͳͶ
VoterOpinionof
GingrichMovement
27 MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
Asyoumayknow,NewtGingrichhasbeenmoving
upinthepolls.Whichofthefollowingreasonsdo
youthinkiswhyheisgainingsupportamong
Republicanprimaryvoters?
28
44%
10%
10%
6%
4%
26%
Knowledge DebatePerformances Pastexperience
ChallengeMedia Capturehearts NoOpinion
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
Nagellan Stiategies ͳͷ
Men
Women
44%
44%
11%
9%
9%
11%
7%
5%
4%
4%
25%
27%
29
44%
10%
10%
6%
4% 26%
Knowledge DebatePerformances
Pastexperience ChallengeMedia
Capturehearts NoOpinion
Asyoumayknow,NewtGingrichhasbeenmovingupin
thepolls.Whichofthefollowingreasonsdoyouthinkis
whyheisgainingsupportamongRepublicanprimary
voters? (ByGender)
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
31%
39%
45%
42%
51%
15%
11%
12%
9%
7%
12%
7%
11%
8%
12%
14%
3%
3%
11%
6%
6%
3%
7%
3%
2%
22%
37%
22%
27% 22%
30
Asyoumayknow,NewtGingrichhasbeenmovingupin
thepolls.Whichofthefollowingreasonsdoyouthinkis
whyheisgainingsupportamongRepublicanprimary
voters? (ByAge)
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
44%
10%
10%
6%
4% 26%
Knowledge DebatePerformances
Pastexperience ChallengeMedia
Capturehearts NoOpinion
Nagellan Stiategies ͳ͸
Republican
Independent
50%
35%
12%
8%
10%
9%
7%
6%
2%
8%
19%
34%
31
Asyoumayknow,NewtGingrichhasbeenmovingupin
thepolls.Whichofthefollowingreasonsdoyouthinkis
whyheisgainingsupportamongRepublicanprimary
voters?(ByParty)
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
44%
10%
10%
6%
4% 26%
Knowledge DebatePerformances
Pastexperience ChallengeMedia
Capturehearts NoOpinion
Ideology
32 MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
Nagellan Stiategies ͳ͹
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
66%
54%
62% 64%
60%
18%
40% 34% 32%
34%
9%
1% 3%
3%
5%
7%
5% 1% 1%
1%
Conservative
Moderate
Liberal
NoOpinion
61%
33%
4%
2%
Onmostpoliticalissues,doyouconsideryourselftobe
conservative,moderate,orliberal?
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 33
Men
Women
65%
57%
31%
37%
3%
4%
1%
2%
Republican
Independent
71%
46%
26%
45%
2%
6%
1%
3%
AllVoters
TeaPartyMember
34 MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
Nagellan Stiategies ͳͺ
Yes
No
36%
64%
DoyouconsideryourselftobeamemberoftheTea
PartyMovement?
MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|303Ǧ861Ǧ8585 35
Men
Women
37%
34%
63%
66%
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
56%
40%
35%
34%
29%
44%
60%
65%
66%
71%
AllVoters
Republican
Independent
41%
27%
59%
73%
SurveyDemographics
36 MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
Nagellan Stiategies ͳͻ
Demographics
Female
47%
Male
53%
37 MagellanStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com |303Ǧ861Ǧ8585
18Ǧ34
35Ǧ44
45Ǧ54
55Ǧ64
65+
7%
15%
27%
23%
28%
White
Hispanic/Latino
Black/AfricanAmerican
Other
92%
2%
2%
4%
Republican,
60%
Independent,
40%