mobile trends for the next 10

a collaborative outlook
compliled by Rudy De Waele /

Douglas Rushkoff Katrin Verclas Willem Boijens Timo Arnall Gerd Leonhard Fabien Girardin Alan Moore Martin Duval Tony Fish Ilja Laurs Yuri van Geest Nicolas Nova Raimo van der Klein Russell Buckley Tomi Ahonen Stefan Constantinescu Rich Wong Marshall Kirkpatrick Andy Abramson Marek Pawlowski Russ McGuire Carlo Longino Howard Rheingold Steve O'Hear Ted Morgan 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 17 18 19 20 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 Kevin C. Tofel Jonathan MacDonald David Wood Michael Breidenbruecker Henri Moissinac Andreas Constantinou C. Enrique Ortiz Raj Singh Marc Davis David Harper Loic Le Meur Ajit Jaokar Inma Martinez Carlos Domingo Kelly Goto Felix Petersen Matthaus Krzykowski Tom Hume Atau Tanaka Robert Rice You! (if you like) 33 34 36 37 38 39 40 42 43 44 45 47 48 49 50 51 53 54 55 56 58


At the turn of a decade it's always worthwhile looking back to ones initial dreams. In my case it was all about being at the forefront of innovation in the mobile space. From viewing my first mobile video in Helsinki to the first mobile augmented reality demo in Amsterdam. I had the chance to participate in and witness many interesting projects in mobile from the 1st row: as an entrepreneur, a strategist, a conference organizer, a blogger, a speaker and a networker with a mission to inspire others, to help them in the process of building new great things. To this end I have been writing down my predictions in mobile & wireless for a couple of years now. This year I thought it was the time to move on and do something different, so I asked some of my personal heroes in mobile to write down their five most significant trends for the coming decade. All of them have been of great inspiration to me during this decade: for their ideas, visions, talent, the capabilities to adapt and the perseverance to succeed whatever the situation. While I didn't know any one of these great people 10 years ago, I'm glad to have met most of them and proud that some I can call them real friends. I am in awe and grateful when I look at the wisdom and insight that these busy people were so happy to share with the world. It is exactly in this spirit that I myself want to move on into the next decade. Convinced that more openness, knowledge sharing and collaboration is key to facing our global challenges, in 2009, I co-founded A space at the fuzzy edges of innovation, will hopefully help many entrepreneurs and organizations across all industries to open up, exchange, collaborate, create and inspire. I hope to meet you all there! Rudy De Waele co-founder, blogger, speaker @mtrends


com BY NC ND 4 .1. 5. @rushkoff rushkoff. Driving locks. Radiation and brain damage documented. Douglas Rushkoff Author of Life Inc. 3. Probably based on brainwave activity. 2. Implanted bluetooth ear and microphone. 4. Verizon abandons CDMA. Not so hard. ESP sensors.

2. It'll be likely in Nigeria in 2010.for social benefit payments by governments. 3. Mobiles in social development will truly become an integral part of development projects and programmes with aid organizations understanding the potential of mobiles and smartly deploying mobile tech as part of their 1. Mobile payments will be widespread . Elections and other forms of political expression by citizens. for remittances across borders. Environmental monitoring BY NC ND in the form of smart sensing devices will be part of everyday life with new forms of scientific environmental discovery and mitigation possible. mobiles for reporting and government accountability. will see some true breakthroughs with 5. UNICEF and CONCERN will be at the vanguard. Health care delivery. especially in developing countries. more telemedicine projects like mobile ultrasound and other diagnostics.Katrin Verclas Co-founder & editor of MobileActive. 6. government oversight will be radically different than they are today by way of mobile voting. and will begin to make a positive economic impact at the bottom of the economic pyramid. 5 . New business models involving medical expertise remotely will emerge so that the divide between healthcare between rich and poor areas will flatten. 4. and for tax and other payments by citizens. Africa will see the first truly mobile political @KatrinSkaya mobileactive. This will make financial governance every so slightly more accountable in developing countries.

shapes & materials. productivity. efficiency. LifeFlow: 3. smart mobility & energy services identities. wearables. adaptive architecture. sustainability natural interfaces. collaboration. ad-hoc & meshed networks. digestables Willem Boijens Marketing innovation & design executive/ Principal manager at Vodafone Group Marketing @willemjhboijens vodafone. disposables. the next billion internet users wellbeing. ambient vs single task driven UIs dynamic grids. Sense: value creation & exchange. Morph: BY NC ND 6 .1. projection display. Large Quantity Information Display (LQID). We're all value creators: 2. Swarming: 5. spatial 4. cocreation in real-time.

com 2. Wattson and Foursquare are prototypical) there is potential for a broad range of personal and public services. and household appliances all the way up to cars. The ability to gracefully disconnect and go 'dark' must become a USP for many products and services. complex social and personal privacy issues that are difficult for technology alone to resolve (cf. visual and manipulable representations. public spaces and buildings (where there is a good reason to do so). Always-on backlash: In reaction to increased. places. Because of the increased visibility of everyday activities. Timo Arnall Design Researcher at Oslo School of Architecture and Design @TimoArnall elasticspace. this will have significant effects on everyday life and on our sense of value in personal information. health. finances. With all of these personal activities that can be measured or 'counted' (Nike+. personal. In many cases a connected object are no longer just 'mobile' but e-readers. cameras. Mike Kuniavsky).1. Physical diversification: 3. Pervasive privacy: 5. pervasive connectivity. social. Things and services: The increasing connection between physical devices and online services will drive new applications that take personal data and turn it into useful. music players. There will be an enormous physical diversification of connected devices. Everyware). Not just the 'big brother' privacy issues that will be tested through the legal system. etc. but really sticky. The impact of this will be felt through changes in daily life that try to influence the 'things that can be counted'. As we begin to learn how to create and manipulate our online 'data shadows' that are created out of this data (cf. socially necessary and desirable to be offline. but it will become culturally. relationships. there must be an 'always- BY NC ND 7 . the issues around privacy will really come to a head. There will not just be niche communities choosing to 'opt-out'. Daily data: 4. on backlash' en masse.

[to gracefully disconnect] .

e. Many makers of simple smart phones 4. almost entirely. small purchases. location-aware.and Google's revenues will be 10x of what they are today.into content and the provision of 'experiences' 2. opt-ed-in. Mobile phones become wallets.0-supported . LG or Amazon will offer mobile phones that will work only on Wifi / WiMax.and ads will become content. and will offer more or less free calls.but only if they can drop their mad content protection schemes.1. much of the use of the content (downloaded or streamed) will be included. Keynote Speaker & Strategist @gleonhard BY NC ND 9 . tablets will kick off the era of mobile augmented reality. driven by mobile. The 5.e. targeted. This will be a huge boon to the content industries. and by video. in 5 years. banks and ATMs. starting with music.e. banking. without SIM cards. worldwide . then books. new and magazines.will become the primary way of consuming. and force them to really move up the food-chain . once your mobile phone / computer is online. . In addition. LTE or mashed-access networks. i. Quite a few mobile phones will not run on any particular networks. within 2-5 years. First music. Advertisers will. and slash the prices in return for a much larger user base. likes of Google (Nexus). massively convert to mobile. Advertising becomes 'ContVertising' . This will finally wake up the mobile network operators. from 1% of their their budgets to at least 1/3 of their total advertising budget. then film & TV. Mobile advertising will surpass the decidedly outmoded Web1. The much-speculated Apple iPad will kick this off but every major device maker will copy their new tablet within 18 months. Bundles and flat-rates . many of us will 'read' magazines. Gerd Leonhard Author & Blogger. and interacting with content.many of them Advertising 2. and maybe Skype.but will take a small cut (similar to the current credit-cards) from all transactions that are done through the devices. newspapers and even 'attend' live concerts. Content will be bundled into mobile service contracts.0 & computer-centric advertising .probably starting with Nokia.will make their devices available for free . on-demand content etc.g. i. Tablet devices will become the way 3. social and user-distributed 'ads'. conferences and events. books.

their scattered intelligent services and their occasional hail of contextual information. The messiness and unpredictability of the world continue to seriously challenge any technophilic dreams and their strategies of bordering Fabien Girardin Researcher at Lift lab @fabiengirardin liftlab. generating more data traffic than the average human digital garbage collection becomes a (very) lucrative business 2. Digital syllogomania: 3. 5. Networked urbanism: mobile data warping scandals will make us doubt on the ability to regulate urban dynamics with data and intelligent algorithms BY NC ND 10 . Seamful design: opt-out mechanisms with awareness before experiencing dense data clouds.1. Web of things: an average networked pet will have a voice.

com destroying businesses that refuse BY NC ND 11 . Augmented reality becomes the new band wagon. blogger. The penny starts to drop with companies that Social Marketing Intelligence is the black gold of the 21st Century 3.1. digital ink spilt with much misinformed 2. Convergence enables the blending of reality no distinction from online and off so there is 5. entrepreneur @alansmlxl smlxtralarge. Accessing multiple dynamic data bases that are constantly updated to deliver better enabling services begins to transform the media industry – for example creating highly accurate 3D location maps by accessing the Flickr database 4. The communications revolution accelerates to think the unthinkable Alan Moore Author.

1. Mobile payment and transfer (in Europe) 4. ‘Green Tech’ phones and in emerging BY NC ND 12 . Mobile battery performance and charging solutions Martin Duval CEO bluenove @bluenove bluenove. Still to come ‘Easy Back Up & Storage’ of Address Book. stolen or changed 2. self-repairable ones 6. Emotions and social network recommendation based mobile search 3. mobile content and now Apps in case phone is lost. SMS based Health & Wellness monitoring and coaching 5.

Sensors. from any available Tony Fish Entrepreneur & strategic thinker AMF Ventures @TonyFish tonyfish. Mashup interfaces across voice. They will become critical for differentiation as devices will be able to handle massive data speeds for microseconds and limited data speeds for hours. www. 3. 5. Connection managers. Mobile devices will have sensors added which will enable the capture local data from temperature to noise and from location to who else is in the room. User Interface. it will be possible to generate new business models and shareholder value.1. brands realize that more value is created from the analysis of sensor data taken off the mobile devices than from user voice or data usage analysis. Combining the two. 4. Based on game changes 2 and 3. Open (environments) will change the game. touch and movement will create new experiences for getting data into and controlling mobile devices. Every brand wants to own you and your data. Business model. Trust and privacy will be at the forefront of the user decision. sensor and user data. Ownership of your data 2. Users will become discriminating about brands who deliver value to them and these will be different from those who are in the mobile retail value chain today. BY NC ND 13 .

still in general there will still be a lot of questions. Android still very slow next year. integrated services. But even taking to quality and other objective measures. but massive app successes will come in 2011/12. widgets. 50% software and services (UI. BY NC ND 14 . but the consumer will see a leapfrog in devices. still some reject voice/navigation. It's all about phones. etc. lead primarily by developers (not consumers). to open the ecosystem. call the "second wave of apps". 2011.). iPhone is into linear growth. quality or other objective measures. with smartphone being the mainstream device. open for GJ means that it is the consumer decides what quality is acceptable). to the contrary. Ilja Laurs Founder and CEO of GetJar @getjar getjar. etc. 2. 3. apps based on their competing business model and not on the user 5.1. 2010 will certainly see all appstores being more open than in 2009. 4. We will see several app successes ($10m/yr businesses built on apps) in 2010. equivalent to BW (representing today's featurephones) to colour (representing todays' smartphones) devices shift. will be much less about devices and much more about apps and services. generally status quo compared to 2009. the industry will see $100m/yr businesses built on apps Unfortunately there's no definition of what is "open" (every app store calls itself open. 2011 iPhone stabilizing and very fragmented Android rapidly taking off. Apps and app stores are important (just as platforms are). Strong movement. Certainly 2010 is the year of app stores "opening". 50% hardware.

Mobile Learning and Science: BY NC ND 15 . emotions and behavior as spinoff of cosmetic neurology using mobile sensors.o. DNA based) and discovery of important changes in the environment Yuri van Geest Co-Founder Mobile Monday 2. Internet of Things: 5.1. Mobile DNA: anonymous DNA profiles for 10 euro on mobile devices will be used for hyper targeted DNA-based services (dating. thoughts. education. Mobile Neurotech: 3. mHealth: 4. bodily sensors and fungible/internal sensors to boost mobile health lifelogging and disease prevention/correction and boost scientific health research multimedia sensors in animals. finance. sports) using mobile devices to directly regulate and stimulate senses. filtering will be biggest theme in this respect mobile devices will drive permanent and highly personalized learning (a. buildings and places that allow being present of everything if needed. Co-Organizer TEDx Amsterdam. Futurist @vangeest mobilemonday. food. medicine. objects.

[open up] .

VoIP on cell-phones+less expensive data transfer 2. animals. Data Structure Service: services that allow to maintain/sort/ structure all these data will gain even more weight Nicolas Nova researcher @nicolasnova BY NC ND 17 . Non-humans (objects. The return of curious LBS+AR applications after few years in the “through of disillusionment” 3. Some (rich) people will pay to be disconnected 4.1. places) will generate more data than humans 5.

Personal Area Networks: Jean Paul Sartre sat here reserved buy tickets now! BY NC ND 18 . Vendor Relationship Management: includes barcode 5. people send out RFQ's. Augmented Reality: 2. 4. indoor positioning. etc. Indoor Smartness: placing digital content literally in physical context. customers in control. 3. Contextual Information Provision: Don’t order eggs! Provision of information based on LIVE information gathered through sensory input from all elements in your context.1. Raimo van der Klein CEO Layar @rhymo layar. many hardware mutants and spinoffs. couponing. smart environments.

Mobile product and service innovation will be greatly influenced in the next 10 years by emerging markets. All urban areas offer free (or funded by tax payer) Wimax connectivity. with interfaces being via glasses or contact lenses. Digital World and a combination of the two ie Augmented Reality. who already live in the Post PC Era today. 2. Current handheld form factors disappear. Real World. People still won’t pay for Digital Content. Russell Buckley VP Global Alliances AdMob & Chairman Emeritus Mobile Marketing Association @russellbuckley mobhappy. 5. In this Post PC Era. offering the best results and tracking in the history of marketing. Education is the first vertical to be hugely impacted.1. meaning that most people don’t bother with an operator relationship any more. laptops will be quaintly old-fashioned and unsupported commercially. Landlines are BY NC ND 19 . Three options of viewing will be available. 3. 4. a microscopic ear piece and a device which we can envision as a ring for the finger. Mobile overtakes the PC as the largest marketing channel.

Half of total economy in many countries transits mobile phone BY NC ND 20 . become ever more compelling and 'engaging'. memory etc. 3. 5. Combined with interactive ads. like Amazon today anticipates and 'reads our minds' of what book to recommend. In all countries normal to get paycheck paid to phone. more than half of total economy will pass through mobile phones. The rapid growth of mobile banking and credit will change the payments systems of all countries. 'accountant' and 'lawyer' functions to assist us. top end 'smartphones' will be embedded within humans enhancing our vision. 'butler'. Mobile advertising grows to become biggest ad platform exceeding TV and internet by reach and by ad revenues. Our phone becomes magical servant as concierge. your earpiece hears the simultaneous translation as if UN professional translator stood next to you. Google Nexus and Apple iPhone 3GS. the concierge avatar on the phone adds 'secretary'. 2. Will not kill off other older media like TV. Shrinking superphone reaches 10 dollar cost. the phone servant avatar in 2020 will run our lives. like Nokia N900. better than iPhone of today. The early translator utilities of today will evolve and by end of decade. Mobile ads mature beyond banner ads and SMS spam.1. where traditional banking institutions are weak like in Africa. Mobile advertising becomes biggest ad platform. "Star Trek Universal Translator' is commonplace. You point the phone at speaker in foreign language. Tomi Ahonen Author @tomiahonen tomiahonen. in many leading m-banking countries. order goods and services. as each will adjust to the newest medium. As our payments and media and calendar info is integrated. Moore's Law brings us ever cheaper phones so cheap 'Africa' phones and kids' phones in 2020 are better than modern top end phones of 2010. all standard phone feature near-real time 'accurate' translators in voice-to-voice and text-to-text (and across voice/text/voice). answer our calls. Better phones will be used at work and play. 4. hearing. and give us reminders. print and internet. The early mobile concierge services like from Japan today evolve. send messages on behalf of us. mobile money will shift phone to mobile wallet with our keys and loyalty points and identity cards.

because operator billing will finally replace the piece of plastic in your wallet. Stefan Constantinescu Editor.1. BY NC ND 21 . People will pay for content again. 3. NFC will drastically take off and similar to how today it's impossible to buy a mobile phone without a camera. especially mobile content since mobile advertising takes up valuable screen real estate. 5. Rich nations will start seeing the number of hours people spend in front of screens decline for the first time and the masses will limit or stop use a certain technology or service to reconnect with the joys of overcoming an obstacle. that point will be reached with NFC by the tail end of the next decade. A device as powerful as the iPhone 3GS is today will cost less than 100 EUR by 2016 thereby enabling a whole new economic strata rich mobile access to the internet. Intomobile @GJCAG intomobile. Thanks to Bluetooth and wireless display technology the mobile phone will literally be the only computer people own. 2.

[emotional recommendations]

1. Over 50% of the world’s households carry a mobile device – 3B+
(think about that, how cool is that, what will it mean for societal integration)

2. Mobile internet surpasses the wireline internet in global REACH
(more people with IP connections in mobile than PCs)

3. Mobile advertising becomes mainstream
without a URL today)

(imagine a Brand Manager

4. Augmented reality and advanced LBS services become broadscale (finally) 5. Smart Agents 2.0 (Thank you Patty Maes) become real; the ability to deduce/impute context from blend of usage and location data (privacy issues need to be handled of course)
Rich Wong Partner at Accel Partners @rich_wong


1. Mobile content recommendation 2. Lifestream integration with mobile contacts lists 3. Mobile data portability and data portability via mobile 4. Mobile commerce 5. Location-based social networking
Marshall Kirkpatrick VP of Content Development & Lead Blogger ReadWriteWeb @marshallK



mostly built on Android and with data at the core. Garmin/Acer. Huawei. blog author of VoIPWatch & Working Anywhere @andyabramson andyabramson. Connectivity becomes ubiquitous and the idea of always on. BY NC ND 25 . becomes commonplace. ZTE will start to encroach with better priced. video and voice.1. Andy Abramson CEO. better and cheaper data. INQ becomes an emerging force and HTC becomes a bigger part of the game with more operators. more feature rich handsets. Unlocked handsets become a bigger part of mix in countries where it never was a factor.blogs. Motorola rises like a Phoenix. 5. Ericsson and others had a cozy ride for years with the mobile operators. Mobile WiMax and WiFi-this means faster. and will all compliment the 3G expansion plans and 4G (LTE) roll outs. Google will be a trend changer doing for mobile what Yahoo never could achieve. Mobile PBX/Nomadic Mobile Enterprise Offerings-the largest customer market is the enterprise for mobile. The rise of new device brands-Nokia. Cheaper Data plans. yet we can’t transfer a call after almost 30 years of calling. 2. A mobile PBX will change all that 4. The Network Becomes Paramount as Devices all become Smarter – With WiMax. Without a well run network. more Pay As You Go Data with Global Roamingwith LTE and WiMax bundles and buckets become like minutes. Now the rising tigers from Asia (Asus. none of this grows. Newer smart devices both diverged and converged all proliferate. Watch the rates start to fall as the operators need more customers to support new capex spending and as they begin to leverage already established networks. 3.

The most successful network operators will narrow their focus to the '3 Cs': customer service. Marek Pawlowski Founder. MEX Mobile User Experience Conference @marekpawlowski pmn. Services and content are purchased once and accessible across all devices (PC. inherently unreliable wireless networks and a proliferation in access devices employed by the dimensions and screen size cease to be the primary limiting factors in handset design as new input and display technologies free designers to radically change the form factor of personal communication devices.. coverage and capacity. The mobile browser becomes the main applications platform.) as business models start to reflect the reality of consumer value perception. stepping away from large-scale portal. Smarter middleware becomes essential to mediate between rapid growth in cloudbased media BY NC ND 26 . mobile. TV etc. application and media development efforts..

and to reduce their operating costs. Businesses will redefine virtually every internal process that has a power source. Strategy.g. and businesses appreciate the value of mobility more than the value of excess bandwidth. for the applications they run rather than for their ability to make voice calls. Russ McGuire VP. families. it will become expected that wireless connectivity will be built into virtually every product that has a microprocessor.1. wireless BY NC ND 27 . Just as microprocessors have been built into virtually every product 2. to grow their addressable markets. 3. reduced backhaul costs) and direct and indirect stimulus investments (e. Sprint Nextel @mcguireslaw mcguireslaw. the Obama administration will stimulate significant expansion of the mobile market through regulatory policies (e. resulting in increasing data cord cutting as individuals. mobile devices will be thought of first 5. over the next ten years. In the U. 4. By the end of the decade. Fixed line broadband will overshoot the performance needs of the market. and virtually every service they offer customers to leverage wireless access to information and contextual data to create new value for customers. smart grid).g.S..

4. The #1 trend for me for the next decade will be ubiquity: everybody will have mobile data access. 5. People in developing nations will get online on mobiles before they do on PCs. and form will take precedence over function. Tools that help people manage their constant connectivity will be in great demand. mobile data use will become the norm for all users. and in developed BY NC ND 28 . carrying users' digital identities. The mobile phone will evolve into an enabler device. 3. preferences and possessions around with them. Privacy and protection of identity will create huge conflicts in many societies. Advanced mobile phone technology will become a commodity. Carlo Longino Blogger at Mobhappy @caaarlo mobhappy. 2.

[watch your data shadow] .

com BY NC ND 30 . Howard Rheingold Author of Smart Mobs @hrheingold rheingold. 4. Augmented reality. 3. The use of environmental and biomedical sensors in conjunction with mobile communication media. 2. Distribution of sms-equipped and then increasingly smart phones in the developing world.1. Mobile Social Software.

and some increasingly made public or shared with a user's wider social graph. Not only will you be able to manage your money via your mobile phone and use it to pay for products in authorized retail outlets both online and offline. Mobile phones are already the ubiquitous mobile device and. weather. People will share more and more personal information. 5. but others include various sensory data captured automatically via the mobile phone e. Money transfer beyond mobile banking. most of which will fail. 3.g. such as innovative input devices and sensors. Steve O'Hear Editor. health and fitness-related data. Your phone will become your doctor. spending habits etc. Battery technology will finally catch up. with 7+ hours becoming the norm for a low cost 10inch laptop. Everyone will become a walking 'cash' register. Health care will be a major benefactor. more and more hardware functionality. networks will start to focus on and highlight their competitiveness based on infrastructure and capacity alone. Just like the best camera is the one that you have with you. software and data functionality. increasingly. as the pipes get increasingly clogged up carrying all of this data. while the smartest players will partner and invest in innovate startups. and implicit data. 2. That said. Perhaps days. some will try to innovate with their own SaaS products. Some of this information will be shared privately and one-to-one. combined with software and a data connection will piggyback the mobile phone. and with the advent of BY NC ND 31 . Evidenced by the recent Netbook phenomenon.g. both at the service level or financially. but mobile money transfer will extend to peer-to-peer. Location sharing via GPS (in the background) is one current example of implicit information that can be shared. some anonymously and in aggregate. The mobile phone will replace your wallet. TechCrunch Europe | @sohear | last100. mobile carriers will continue to struggle with the issue of who 'owns' the customer. even under the strain of all of this new hardware. Companies will provide incentives. Terrified of becoming a dumb pipe reduced to selling commodity voice and data services. photo and video uploads or status updates. As phones get smarter. being able to stay powered up for more than a day. provide a ubiquitous Internet connection.1. in exchange for users sharing various personal data. pipes get dumber. last100 / Contributing Editor. rather than try to compete as a separate device. traffic and air quality conditions. The combination of new types of battery technology and less power hungry chips will lead to mobile phones. In the era of app stores and handset makers launching their own Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) offerings. Both explicit e. 4.

That starbucks example is driven by a mindset stuck in the web . 3.pop-up ads. 4. Location will become THE core technology to mobile devices. nearly every user interaction with mobile devices will become location aware. banner ads.1. 5. 2. Device makers will continue to drive the mobile industry and operators will become more traditional service providers competing on cost and network quality. Venture capitalists will begin to make major strategic investments in mobile app companies in 2010 (like the 2009 investments in Shazam. and most mobile advertising will be informed and targeted by location. Smule. Apps will become a core revenue generator for BY NC ND 32 . Location based advertising will explode. etc). It will become more ubiquitous on the device than any other feature. Brands will use apps to drive hundreds of millions of dollars in sales. Big brands will acquire small apps that enhance their product offering (eg Amazon & SnapTell) Ted Morgan CEO Skyhook Wireless @tedmorgan skyhookwireless. The classic starbucks example will be forgotten. Apps and the mobile web will be location aware.

devices truly leverage location and tie together our tasks with our current 3.devices and apps will seamlessly function offline nearly as well as online 4.fewer laptops will be carried as more capable handheld devices will mature Kevin BY NC ND 33 . Handhelds truly becomes another form of data on next generation data networks 2. Connectivity lines blur -. Tofel Managing Editor at jkOnTheRun. Location awareness location -.moves from niche usage to a mainstream input option -.1. Cellular voice dies -. Voice recognition 5. a GigaOM network site covering mobile technology @KevinCTofel jkOnTheRun.

Jonathan MacDonald Founder. gaming. Within this trend I predict that ISP and web based services (including Google) will inherit the current subscribers of many mobile networks of today. 4. entertainment and most other experiences in life. augmented and virtual reality: augmented and virtual reality will become an increasingly standard method for search.1. Location and other contextual functions will grow so our 2D mobile experiences become 3D and 'real'. 2. onto cloudbased systems that can be managed by mobile devices. to combined solutions placing data alongside gas. our payment for services will move away from separate contracts from service providers. healthcare. Convergence of physical. JME @jmacdonald jme. based platforms that are accessible from any machine and screen. electricity and water. savings. retail. Convergence of mobile and online platforms: the emergence of personal. To such an extent that the prefixes 'augmented' and 'virtual' will eventually become redundant. unified cloud5. I predict single subscriptions to data services from commodity BY NC ND 34 . Convergence of utility payment: IP technology will replace the need for cell towers. Convergence of virtual and physical payments: mobile payments will significantly replace physical currency. be they loans. supplemented with personalisation tools that suit our precise requirements at any given moment. Convergence of mobile network and data services: 3. eyesight. discovery. Within this trend I predict the replication of financial services from the past. payments and transfers.

[mobile social development] .

Powerful. Mobiles monitoring personal health .fulfilling. at last.a conductor's baton as much as a viewing portal David Wood Principal at Delta Wisdom @dw2 dw2blog. Mobiles as universal remote controls for life . visual. the vision of "personal digital assistants" 2. and more 3. easily wearable head-mounted accessories: audio. Mobiles as gateways into vivid virtual reality . Mobiles manifesting AI .present-day AR is just the beginning 4.1.the second brains of our personal networks BY NC ND 36 .

me BY NC ND 37 . increase profits of voip services and spawn a new range of mobile services. Smartphones will become as powerful as laptops and take over the laptop and notebook market. mobile apps and even mobile devices. Don't loose it! Michael Breidenbruecker ceo RjDj @byzo rjdj. cause your phone will fulfill your computing needs. Mobile Entertainment: Games. A handful of startups in this sector will manage to attract significant audiences. Mobile Internet: Internet usage through mobile devices based on massive adaptation of mobile internet in the developing world. decrease the revenues of cable companies. The switch from 3g standards into all IP network infrastructure (4g) will turn mobile operators to broadband providers.01:23:51 finish line 01:23:49 Mobile Networks: Imagine mobile networks without voice services. will overtake desktop/pc usage Mobile Payment: the mobile is the credit card. Music and Movies will find new formats Mobile Hub: Laptop schlepping will be over on mobile devices especially through the rise of augmented reality technology. With an increasing number of peripherals from keyboards to displays to 3d glasses the mobile will become the power processor of your life.

in restaurants.1. Facebook @moissinac facebook.) BY NC ND 38 . Network: Wifi deployed widely (everywhere: at home. Use cases: Phones are the primary computer and tool for connecting and sharing with friends (= more email or messages initiated from mobile phones to friends (not work) than from computer or netbooks) 2. may be only 2 or 3 gather 80% of units shipped 4. in the street. etc. Hardware: significant advance in batteries Henri Moissinac head of mobile. Platforms: consolidation of platforms.

OEMs as the service inventory brokers: 3. regionalisation and sophistication. Application Mega-retailing: 4. Open Source Economics Mastered: 39 . rather than downstream troops. from monetising competitive intelligence to spawning new revenue models such as OEMs being paid based on device performance. Retailing and merchandising of mobile apps will evolve in terms of segmentation. much like the book business is today. Service Analytics: 5. networks and users will create major new revenue streams. Andreas Constantinou Ph. Handset OEMs will move to exploit one of their few unique strengths. Research BY NC ND 2. Very few multi-nationals will control assets to both services and access. service distribution inventory on-device and therefore monetise from retailing and managing services at point-of-purchase and during in-life use. and far more so than mobile phone retailing.1. The Operator Dichotomy: Mobile operators will clearly separate into service companies (service pipes) and access companies (bit pipes). VisionMobile @andreascon visionmobile. A large chunk of the money in apps will go towards distribution and retailing. services. The Most Underhyped opportunity. Multi-billion firms will realise that 'influence is power' in the world of open source and will either acquire the small 10-strong professional services firms or reorient their business culture towards upstream tribes. Comprehensive analytics on devices..D.

2) media – photos. There are many App Stores which are easily discovered and selected by users – which app store to use becomes a user-preference/choice. 1% voice"-kind of mobile users. Mobile usage drivers are as follows: 1) (people-to-people) messaging. similar to today's "street vs. real-time web and social networks. but it will take to the end of the decade for this. 2. developer and ecosystem support in the most cost-effective way. Java ME focuses on Feature-phones. Data plans go from unlimited pricing. are able to deliver a complete platform from OS. Super-imposition of information on top of real word imagery (Augmented Reality) and interactions with physical objects via the handset (to learn more about such objects) becomes a common tool and exercise. MMS. map view". media and entertainment. Enrique Ortiz Mobile Technologist. between personal sensors and services and applications and to the Internet. very media and social in nature including text. HSPA+ becomes the predominant type of wireless network during the first half of the decade with LTE on the later part. C. Wireless networks reaches sufficient speeds and efficiencies that minimizes and almost eliminate most of the connection latencies that currently degrades the mobile web usage experience. "visors" that work together with the mobile handset extending digital augmentation from the handset screen (the 4th screen) onto "eye-glasses" (the 5th screen). We start to see the initial phase of the 5th screen. Distribution is 80% Smart-phones and 20% BY NC ND 40 .1. Feature-phones have 80% of Smart-phone characteristics. awareness of our surroundings via proximity and other sensors such as geo-location allows for high-definition user-context. 4) voice. worldwide. AR becomes standardized and absorbed into the web browser as a View. MNOs become a positive member of and contributor to the ecosystem and the developer community. Messaging becomes the top application. Fragmentation problem continues from apps to web but reduced to a small number of platforms. App Stores offer both local/native and mobile web apps. and messaging and media go hand-in-hand with media usage driven by personal messaging. video and music. Control totally shifts from the MNO and into the ecosystem. 3. The hybrid application (80% local driving richness and experience and 20% generic/related web-based information) becomes the standard mobile app design pattern. 3) info/search or queries. Search/queries and apps in general benefit from the digital and physical worlds merging together. to handsetspecific (attempt to maximize revenue) pricing and tiered-pricing (to force users to use less data). The handset is the personal gateway. The mobile lifestyle truly goes beyond "carrying a mobile handset all the time". blogger | @eortiz | cenriqueortiz."99% messaging. Voice usage will be very minimal when compared to messaging. thanks to the mobile handset. HTML and scripting with the browser/web-runtimes and handset APIs evolve and get standardized allowing for web applications that when combined with fast networks truly rival and/or complement local/ native applications. leveraging Google's R&D and BOM. back to unlimited (once networks become more efficient). resulting in an increased positive perception of mobile web and allowing for mobile web applications that complement and/or rival local/native mobile apps. Most device manufacturers trying to copy Apple introduce their own OSes only to fail and instead go with Android due to economics . The next decade will see the first true always-on/connected generation . 4. gaming. Even in emerging regions such as Africa the business models is figured out to allow for "data" to take off. The MNO extends and offers their mobile/wireless infrastructure as services on the Internet (Infrastructure as a Services).

[hackable devices] .

Operators build and market their own mobile devices competing with OEMs 3. 5x more sensors in everyday BY NC ND 42 . You will travel to go to a no-airwaves National Park. the first cellular reserve Raj Singh Mobile Enthusiast @raazzzin rajansingh. Your super-modular mobile phone will be powered by a cloud based OS 5.1. combination of wearable sensors. remote sensors and sensors in your phone 2. Wireless charging becomes the standard and is available everywhere 4.

and at scales from personal. and transactions connected to Web4 metadata create massive new value by radically transforming our ability to understand where and when who is interested in what. interests. and process is embedded in Web4. discovery. Location-awareness. and exchange of personal data (e. Web4 transforms our relationship to the world. control. and may happen all over the world. object) becomes connected and programmable. to global. communication. and events. and play. object. from that of our friends and those we follow. places (Where). to social. 2. and the Internet of Things bring about a new industrial revolution. searches. from our own personalized point of view. MyWorld/OurWorld/TheirWorld: 3. communications. The World Sees and Hears Itself: 5.. mobile social networks. crowdsourcing. and activity in real time mapped to an ever-evolving 4 dimensional model of the world: “the Web of the World”.g. We gain control of what we make and do online and in the world. person. each other. objects (What). and every digital entity is contextualized and can communicate with the real world. New legal and technical structures change the terms of service for the mobile ecosystem bringing about a range of new value creation and services based on the ownership. and real world on a global scale. and from the vantage point of others we do not know. shared. and transformed. Mobile Transforms Global Business: 4. and physical resources can be assembled and integrated in real time to solve problems and create value: context-aware mobile sensors/effectors. audio. and recommendation technology transform BY NC ND 43 .) by users and trusted intermediaries. Business processes are reengineered as mobile sensing. interest. and adaptive. health data. education. The masses of global data are no longer abstract bits in databases. and recommendation become basic modes of engagement with ourselves. We create and use collective maps of human attention. etc. computational. activities. and chains social networks are seen as the new drivers of value production. communication. analyzable into vectors of attention. and the world. Commerce is transformed as every place. the now visible and permanent accretions of human attention and activity transform how we communicate with each other and understand the world around us. entertainment. contextual. place. and ourselves. real time. User Data Banking: If user data is the currency of the information economy. interests. Invention Arts | @marcedavis | inventionarts. aggregation. Billions of mobile media datastreams indexed and correlated with Web4 metadata show us and connect us to what is happening. communication. Mobile commerce becomes long tail. but are made intelligible with real world metadata about the contexts in which they are produced. then where are the banks? By 2020. location. summarization. The Web and we get eyes and ears at global scale: billions of mobile phones with sensors and HD and 3D imaging. mobile data Marc Davis Chief Scientist and Co-Founder. transactions. and processing make supply and the organization of labor and markets real time. Web4 Metadata for All Data: Mobile transforms the Web into Web4: billions of mobile devices as sensors in a sensor network connect the Web to real people (Who). Human. and video combined with large scale real time filtering. each other.1. consumed. Given regulatory and societal pressures. and times (When). has happened. mobile transactions. social media. As every physical entity (person. and the world as it exists in the Web. the ownership and control of user data is placed in our hands. The mobile phone is a prosthetic connecting us to our collective embodied intelligence in real time and across time and space: large scale information filtering. smart mobs. work. We see the datasphere mapped onto the world.

Unofficial currencies gain power. 2. David Harper Co-founder & CEO. Some nations will grant its people the right to a cellphone. Login will replace SIM BY NC ND 44 . 3. North Korea will join the Web. Appearance of a massively destructive synchronized mobile virus. 5.1. PercentMobile @davidharper percentmobile. 4.

net conference / blogger @loic seesmic. embedded in reading/ sunglasses or projected on walls and objects 5. mobile web traffic surpasses desktop web traffic 2. mobile apps revenue surpasses desktop apps revenue BY NC ND 45 . no more mobile screen it becomes contact lenses.1. we finally solve the battery life issue and mobiles can stay up for a week of intense use Loic Le Meur Founder & CEO of Seesmic / Founder of LeWeb. augmented reality becomes standard 4.

[no airwaves] .

1. Tradeoff of mobile information vs privacy vs services 3. 3D content driven by movies like avatar BY NC ND 47 . Innovation from emerging markets 4. 'open' including net neutrality Ajit Jaokar founder futuretext @AjitJaokar futuretext. Smart grids 2.

It is a business very much rolling out. Android takes over iPhone as its cloud features embrace social web better than apple 4. 5. strategist @inma_martinez BY NC ND 48 . europe. investor. Mobiles and Netbooks begin their world domination path as browserdriven apparatuses 2.S. Home apps like tv programming and other wired appliances are operated from mobiles in big scale 3. U. Inma Martinez entrepreneur. mobile startups attempt conquering mother mobile homeland. Mobile advertising revenues dent internet ad revenues by end of year.

not just phones) and M2M services (machines to machine services. where the context is far richer than just location and personalization and recommendations are ubiquitous 3. Convergence of desktop and mobile web into one web. In 10 year. Ubiquity of mobile broadband will lead to an explosion of connected devices (à la Kindle. everything moving to the cloud and the end of native mobile applications and applications stores 4. Augmented reality and mixed reality services/applications: pervasive services that seamlessly combine the physical and digital World Carlos Domingo Director of Internet and Multimedia & Director of the Barcelona R&D center at Telefonica @carlosdomingo unpocodetodo. more devices/machines connected to the mobile network than humans BY NC ND 49 . Truly context aware mobile computing. without a human behind the device).1. Explosion of mobile video applications including mobile video communications 5.

Observe.Micro Manage. Conserve. Object-oriented "personal packets" of data become the norm as identity and privacy are the #1 Kelly Goto Principal Gotomedia @go2girl gotomedia. Objective: BY NC ND 50 . RFID and embedded personal tagging bring big brother home. Micro-payments and proximity-based bartering replace traditional revenue streams. personal tracking. A Mass-ing Data: and more. Devices track and manage energy and consumption using home automation and Beyond Barcoding. shopping Human synching to self allows any device within proximity to automatically i Synch. Personal devices sense and report real-time services from emotion to temperature. therefore I am: personalize.

it´s happening 3. 2. Mobile Payment. Connected phones packed with sensors and crunching power will disrupt all kinds of sensor-based business models .com @fiahless BY NC ND 51 . etc. Paypal for your mobile phone. Felix Petersen Head of Social Activities PM at Nokia / Founder at Plazes. Think mobile2mobile payment. 3D Displays . 4. and you won´t look like an idiot wearing your 3D glasses watching Avatar.The Palm Pre has been the Grandfather. Pollution sensing. A Web OS based hackable phone will give you access to everything using Web Tech . 5. Not every media item that is produced on the phone can and will be pushed back to the cloud but instead stays on your or somebody else's phone´s Terabyte HDD. Traffic probing.It´s SciFi.Think Weather Prediction.1. It´s coming and it´s coming hard. Look for the release of the OVI Apps SDK to be released this year. pp. The Cloud moves to the edge.

[pervasive privacy] .

2. Mobile & Gaming - 5. car navigation systems etc. Mobile & TV/Home Entertainment - BY NC ND 53 .com 4.including mobile will have displaced much of the current console market in the Western World. By 2014 browser-based gaming on embedded devices . Decline of Native App Store Development . Carriers & Data - By 2013 the market of consumers willing to pay "more" for mobile internet data plans will reach saturation. By 2016 browser-based entertainment/TV devices . VentureBeat @matthausk venturebeat.will have displaced television as the focal living room device in most of the Western World. refrigerators. 3. App Stores will start to support applications for Embedded Devices In 2010 we will see the emergence of applications for set-top boxes.1. Matthaus Krzykowski Editor. netbooks.By 2011 native application development for app stores will start losing importance.relying on search . Selected app stores will support these applications.

AR (which is about location+bearing+camera). Voice Search. Improved power distribution: Bandwidth gets higher. Similarly. time-of-day. or we'll start to see new ways to power BY NC ND 54 . use of ambient sound. what happens to our social arrangements when every photo can be face-recognised. battery technology needs to get much better to support more capable devices. Lots of second-order effects of mobile on society. geolocated and individuals tracked? What happens to shops when every price can be compared? What happens to conversation when it's all recorded. or any fact is a 5-second voice-search away from being checked? Tom Hume Managing Director of Future Platforms @twhume tomhume. No-one predicted the loosening of time and space that Mimi Ito has noted. We're seeing this right now with Google Goggles. but it'll happen.More fluid use of input mechanisms beyond the keyboard. Mobile as prime means of access online. boring but necessary. who knows what we'll do with it. etc? Mind you I said this 10 years ago. but what about proximity.

Mobile reception in airplanes 5. Convergence and integration - BY NC ND 55 . 3D sound. and mobile operators offering convergence packages. fixed line providers. Visual search - point your mobile phone camera and retrieve contextual information anywhere of anything Augmented 4. and reformed roaming fee regimes Atau Tanaka Director of Culture Lab @atautanaka ataut. Mobile social networks - social media designed specifically for mobile use will allow not just voice but will be the in-flight Internet access solution ISP's. will create new mobile audio formats and end user experiences 2. integrated pricing structures. New sonic experiences - 3.1.

Ubiquitous Computing (everything wired) 3. Personal Biometric Sensors (cyborg 101) 5. Artificial Life + Intelligent Agents (holographic personalities) 4. BY NC ND 56 . and Property Wars (system breakdown) Robert Rice CEO Neogence Enterprises @robertrice curiousraven. Patent. Mobile Augmented Reality (via wearable displays) 2.

time to take a deep breath and get involved! .Wow .

.... .Take a look at some of the concepts we found this where we want to go? join the conversation: #m2020 58 BY NC ND .

and property wars (system breakdown) personal area networks personal biometric sensors pervasive computing pervasive privacy platform consolidation premium content primary computer privacy & protection conflicts real-time cocreation rise of new device brands sense networks service analytics service bundling service pipes smart agents 2.take a look yourself! 3D 3D content 3D displays 3D sound advanced batteries all IP network infrastructure ambient intelligence android rules app convergence application mega-retailing apps apps & services apps everywhere apps for embedded devices artificial intelligence artificial life augmented reality back-up & storage bluetooth implants browser-based entertainment browser-based gaming business disruption bye bye CDMA challenging technophilic dreams cheaper data complex data sharing connected objects connection managers context aware mobile computing contextual information provision contvertising (content advertising) convergence of mobile network and data services convergence of utility payment cross-platform services data footprint ownership data shadows data structure services Decline of Native App Store Development digital syllogomania disconnectivity documented radiation & brain damage driving locks embedded devices (TV/gaming consoles) emotional recommendations enabling new economy environmental monitoring explosion of mobile video apps free devices free networks google green phones hackable devices health monitoring HSPA+ / LTE indoor smartness in-flight internet access infrastructure a as Services innovation in developing countries intelligent agents internet of things lifeflow location based advertising location-aware objects location-awareness tasks location-based social networking mainstream mobile advertising mashup interfaces messaging rules mixed reality mobile advertising goes mainstream mobile browser rules mobile commerce mobile contacts lifestream integration mobile content recommendation mobile data portability mobile elections mobile information tradeoff mobile political campaign mobile social development mobile social networks mobile social software mobile wallet more mobile IP than PC morph multiple dynamic data nano networked urbanism new business models new input & display technologies next 3 billion nomadic enterprises non-human data oneweb open ecosystem open source business models patent. privacy.0 smart grids smart phones everywhere smart pipes smarter middleware social marketing intelligence software-as-a-service (SaaS) swarm tablet devices terabyte HDD truely connected users tv apps (remote control) ubiquitous connectivity universal remote control vendor relationship management visual search voice recognition voip wifi deployment .

com/photos/evilerin/3397561400/in/photostream/ Niicolas Nova / image by jimmiehomeschoolmom / http://www.jpg Alan Moore / image by cometstarmoon / http://www.The images used in this work are used with permission from a Creative Commons Attribution Willem Boijens / image by Valentina Powers / Thank you for sharing your work: Douglas Rushkoff / image by Andrew Freese / Carlo Longino / image by Mark Norman Francis / .JPG Stefan Constantinescu / image by Freel Dech / unless otherwise Russ McGuire / image by Chess / Fabien Girardin / image by NASA Langley Research Center (Public Domain Wikimedia Commons) / Katrin Verclas / image by Wendkuni / Andy Abramson / image by Zen Sutherland / Rich Wong / © Copyright 2006 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan) / Tomi Ahonen / image by Lycaon / Tony Fish / image by Rolands Lakis / Timo Arnall / image by Timo Arnall / Marek Pawlowski / image by Desirée Delgado / Martin Duval / image by Steve Winton / Russell Buckley / image by Mikhail Esteves / Yuri van Geest / image by Emergency Brake / Gerd Leonhard / image by theseanster93 / Raimo van der Klein / image by Jacob Johan / Ilja Laurs / image by Brandi Sims / http://www.php?selected=334 Marshall Kirkpatrick / image by Martin Terber / http://www.

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