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PH LC 4 C ch iu hnh li sut ca NHTW mt s quc gia v nhng kinh nghim cho Vit Nam.

- Trong giai on nm 2001-2003, hu ht cc nn kinh t ln trn th gii u p dng chnh sch ti chnh v tin t ni lng nhm kch cu trong nc v ngn chn hin tng kinh t suy gim trn ton cu do tc ng ca khng hong ti chnh - tin t nhng nm trc . Trong giai on ny, tng trng ca hu ht cc nc trn th gii c xu hng gim st - k c khi cc nc pht trin v khi cc nc ang pht trin. Thng mi quc t cng c s gim st mnh m. u t quc t trong giai on ny cng c du hiu suy gim. Theo Ngn hng Th gii, dng FDI gim t 818 t USD nm 2001 xung cn 681 t USD nm 2002 v 580 t USD nm 2003. khc phc tnh trng tng trng kinh t, thng mi v u t gim st, cc nc, c bit l cc nc pht trin buc phi la chn gii php ni lng CSTT nhm thc y tng trng. i u trong vic thc hin chnh sch ti chnh-tin t ni lng giai on 2001-2003 l M. T nm 2001 n cui nm 2003, kch thch tng trng, chng gim pht, FED 13 ln ct gim li sut, a mc li sut c bn t 6% nm 2001 xung cn 1% (mc thp k lc k t nm 1958) vo 25/6/2003.Cng theo chiu hng ny, t 2001 n thng 6/2003, NHTW Chu u (ECB) cng 13 ln iu chnh chnh sch li sut, a mc li sut ca khu vc ny xung cn 2% - mc thp nht k t sau Th chin II.Vic M v EU ct gim li sut khin hng lot cc NHTW khc phi ct gim li sut theo.Trung Quc phi gim li sut lin tc trong giai on 1998-2003 nhm kch cu trong nc. CSTT ni lng ca cc nc trong giai on ny gp phn thc y tng trng kinh t, hot ng u t v thng mi ton cu. Nm 2004, GDP thc t ton cu t 5,3% - mc cao nht trong vng 20 nm trc . Tc tng thng mi ton cu cng t mc 10,8%, cao hn so vi mc 5,5% ca nm

2003 v mc 0,2% ca nm 2001. Nm 2004, lng vn FDI ca ton th gii t khong 612 t USD, tng 14% so vi nm 2003. y l nm u tin FDI ton cu tng so vi nm trc sau khi t mc cao nht vo nm 2000. - Sau khong gn 3 nm p dng CSTT ni lng, cng vi s phc hi v kinh t, u t v thng mi, hu ht cc nc trn th gii phi i mt vi lm pht leo thang m biu hin l gi c nguyn nhin vt liu, gi c hng tiu dng v lng thc thc phm u tng mnh. Thm vo , cuc chin Iraq v khng hong du m cng lm cho mt bng gi th gii tng cao. Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI) ca cc nc c bit l M trong giai on 2003-2005 c du hiu tng mnh. Tc tng GDP thc t ca M nm 2005 l 3,1% trong khi CPI cng nm ln ti 3,4%. ng trc nguy c lm pht leo thang, t gia nm 2004 n nm 2006, M v cc nn kinh t ln bt buc phi chm dt CSTT ni lng v tng bc chuyn sang chu k iu hnh CSTT theo hng bt buc hn. T gia nm 2004 n ht nm 2006, FED lin tip 17 ln iu chnh tng li sut c bn ng USD, a li sut c bn ca ng USD t 1% ln 5,25% nm 2006 v tip tc duy tr trong na u nm 2007, to nn mt ln sng tng li sut mnh m hu ht cc nc trn th gii. Cng vi M, trong giai on ny, ECB cng 3 ln tng li sut t 2% ln 2,75%. Tuy chm hn, song t nm 2006, ln sng tng li sut cng lan ti chu vi vic NHTW cc nc Hn Quc, Thi Lan, Th Nh K lin tip tng mnh li sut vo nm 2006 nhm kim ch lm pht.Trong nm 2006, NHTW Hn Quc bt ng tng li sut tin gi ng ni t ca mnh ln mc 4,25% - mc cao nht trong vng 3 nm trc nhm bnh n gi c. NHTW Thi Lan cng quyt nh tng li sut tin gi ng ni t ca mnh thm 0,25% ln mc 5%. Tng mnh nht l Th Nh K, NHTW nc ny tng li sut tin gi ng ni t ca mnh t mc 13,25% ln mc 15% nhm bnh n th trng sau khi lm pht y c du hiu tng mnh v ng Lira ca Th Nh K ang mt gi. Ngay c Nht Bn, t nm 2006 cng hng ti iu chnh CSTT

theo hng tht cht khi tuyn b t b chnh sch li sut bng 0 ko di sut giai on 2001-2005. T nm 2006, Trung Quc bt u thc hin CSTT tht cht, t 10/4/2006 n nay, Trung Quc lin tc tng li sut c bn v nng t l DTBB i vi cc NHTM. T thng 4/2006, li sut c bn cho vay bng ng USD k hn 1 nm c iu chnh 3 ln, mi ln tng 0,27% t mc 5,13% ln mc 6,31%. Li sut tin gi bng ng NDT sau c iu chnh hai ln, t mc 1,98% ln mc 2,25%. Trong nm 2006, t l DTBB cng lin tc c iu chnh 3 ln, nng t l DTBB tng ln 1,5% trong nm ln mc 9%. Nm 2007, Trung Quc tip tc nng t DTBB ln 12,5%. CSTT tht cht c cc nc p dng trong giai on 2004-2006 khin tng trng, lm pht ca cc nn kinh t ln nh M, EU, Nht Bn c chiu hng chng li sau khi tng nh im vo nm 2004. - Sau thi gian di lin tc p dng CSTT tht cht nhm ngn chn tnh trng lm pht leo thang, bc sang nm 2007, dng nh mi d bo ca cc t chc kinh t quc t u cho thy, nn kinh t th gii c du hiu tng trng kh quan v cc hot ng kinh t ti chnh v m tng i n nh, lm pht ca cc khi kinh t ln tng bc c kim sot. Tuy nhin, n gia nm 2007, du hiu nguy c khng hong tn dng ca cc khi kinh t ln bt u xut hin. y l h qu ca vic tng li sut lin tc ca FED giai on 20042006. Khi u l tnh trng n xu gia tng trong lnh vc cho vay cm c M. khuyn khch ngi dn vay tin mua nh, cc TCTD p dng c ch cho vay linh hot m khng tnh ti kh nng chi tr ca khch hng. C th l, cc cng ty a c ca M a ra nhng sn phm vay tr gp mi vi li sut th ni. Ri ro pht sinh khi FED lin tc tng li sut c bn ca ng USD trong thi gian di lm cho li sut cho vay cm c ca M cng tng theo, dn n ngi dn khng th tr n ngn hng. T l n xu ca h thng tn dng

tng cao v ln ti 300 t USD. Nhiu tp on, ngn hng, qu u c, cc nh cho vay cm c ln ca M ri vo tnh trng kh khn. Khng hong cho vay th chp ca M nhanh chng lan sang Anh v mt s nc Chu u, nh hng su sc ti th trng ti chnh th gii, buc cc NHTW ln trn th gii phi phi hp ngn chn. CSTT ni lng c xem l mt trong nhng phng thuc hu hiu ngn chn tnh trng ny, vi cc bin php c th sau: Hu ht cc NHTW ln u phi nhiu ln bm tin vo h thng tn dng nhm cu vn th trng ti chnh trc cn bo khng hong th chp ca M. Trong nm 2007. FED 3 ln bm tin nhm cu vn TTTT. Ln th nht l 88 t USD tin mt h tr cc ngn hng; ln th hai l 3,5 t USD vo cui thng 8/2007; ln th ba l 20 t USD vo thng 12/2007. NHTW Anh cng phi bm tip 14,3 t USD. Trc tc ng lan to ca khng hong tn dng M, ECB cng lp tc quyt nh rt 94,8 t Euro vo Qu h tr khn cp cc th trng v bm tip 61,05 t Euro vo h thng ngn hng. n cui thng 12/2007, trc nh hng ca khng hong tn dng M, ECB cng tuyn b s chi 500 t USD cho cc ngn hng khu vc vi li sut u i thp hn li sut th trng. Theo thng bo ca ECB, hin c ti 390 ngn hng yu cu vay khon vn h tr t ECB. NHTW Nht Bn cng phi bm 8,4 t USD vo TTTT khi mi lo v khng hong vay th chp ca M lm nh hng ti th trng chng khon nc ny. Ngn hng D tr Australia bm 4,19 t USD vo h thng tin t trong nc. Hng lot NHTW cc nc, c bit l cc nc pht trin ng lot thc hin chnh sch ct gim li sut - m ra mt chu k iu hnh li sut mi. T thng 9/2007 n ht thng 1/2008, FED 5 ln ct gim li sut, a mc li sut c bn t 5,25% xung cn 3%. ng thi vi vic ct gim li sut c bn, FED cng tin hnh ct gim li sut chit khu t mc 6,25% xung cn 5,75%. Tip sau M, NHTW Canaa cng thc hin ct gim li sut c bn 0,25% xung cn 4,25% vo ngy 4/12/2007.

- Sau giai on khng hong kinh t, nm 2009, cc quc gia vn ang p dng chnh sch li sut cc thp kch cu tiu dng v u t. in hnh li sut ng USD ca M hin ang mc thp nht trong lch s, t 0-0,25%. Cc nh ph bnh cho rng, mc li sut thp nh vy s chm ngi cho mt cuc khng hong ca ng USD, hoc thm ch to tin cho mt thi k cho vay bt cn v u c ti chnh mi, ri rt cc li l mt cuc khng hong. Tuy nhin, Ch tch FED Bernanke n lc thnh cng trong vic duy tr nim tin cho th trng ti chnh v cc nh hoch nh CSTT khc. ng cng thnh cng khi thuyt phc c mi ngi rng, ri ro t vic gi li sut thp khng ln bng ri ro t vic tng li sut tr li, rng nu vic nng li sut khng ng thi im c th ph hng s phc hi kinh t ang dn hnh thnh. Cng trong hon cnh tng t, t l tht nghip khu vc ng tin chung chu u thng 7/2009 l 9,5%, mc cao nht trong 10 nm qua. Tht nghip cao s nh hng khng nh n tiu dng. ECB hin ang ht sc lo lng v s hi phc cn mong manh ca nn kinh t v lo ngi s i ln ca nn kinh t s chng li nu tht cht CSTT qu sm. Do , ECB vn duy tr li sut c bn ng Euro thp k lc mc 1% trong giai on hin nay. Trc tc ng nng n ca suy thoi kinh t ton cu, Chnh ph Hn Quc v NHTW Hn Quc (BoK) quyt nh can thip nhm ngn chn suy gim thng qua cc k hoch kch cu c gi ln song song vi vic ct gim ng k li sut c bn.Vic iu chnh bin li sut ang c tin hnh sau khi BoK ng bng li sut mc thp 2% trong sut cc thng u nm 2009. Mc li sut trc thi im h ln cui l 3,25%. Vin Nghin cu Pht trin Hn Quc (KDI) nhn nh Hn Quc s a mc li sut siu thp hin nay tr li bnh thng, song tin trnh ny cn thc hin theo l trnh gim thiu tc ng ti th trng. K t ngy 26/11/2008, NHTW Trung Quc (PBOC) mnh tay ct gim 1,08% li sut cho vay k hn mt nm ng Nhn dn t, a li sut ny v

mc 5,58%. y l mc ct gim li sut mnh nht Trung Quc k t nm 1997 nhm i ph vi tnh trng gia tng ca t l tht nghip v tc tng trng kinh t st gim. cnh bo th trng phi chun b cho mt chnh sch sit cht trong tng lai, NHTW Trung Quc ang dng cch tng dn li sut.Thng 07/2009, PBOC nng li sut u thu tri phiu chnh ph, t y cc mc li sut ca TTTT ln trnh tnh trng bong bng trn th trng chng khon, th trng bt ng sn v lo ngi gi kch cu 4.000 t Nhn dn t ca nc ny s khin cho lm pht quay tr li. Lng cung tin M2 ca Trung Quc tng ln mc k lc 28,5% trong thng 6/2009,buc PBOC phi tht cht CSTT thng qua cc hot ng th trng m.