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oder
ÞCLS 2101
november 19ţ 2011
AnnoLaLed 8lbllography #4
AbramowlLzţ Alan lŦ ºvlablllLyţ LlecLablllLyţ and CandldaLe Cholce ln a ÞresldenLlal
Þrlmary LlecLlonť a 1esL of CompeLlng ModelsŦ" 1be Iootool of lolltlcsţ volume 31ţ
number 4 (november 1989)ť ppŦ 977Ŵ992Ŧ
AbramowlLz was born ln 1947 and ls a Þrofessor of ÞollLlcal SclenceŦ Pe goL hls ÞPu from
SLamfordţ and ls known for hls research ln Amerlcan pollLlcsţ elecLlons and pollLlcal parLlesŦ Pe LaughL aL
Lmory ln ALlanLaţ CA and won Lhe Alben WŦ 8arkley dlsLlngulshed chalr award ln ÞollLlcal Sclence aL
Lmory ln 1993Ŧ Pe has auLhored or coŴauLhored flve booksŦ Pe usually publlshes a predlcLlve model of
elecLlonsţ whlch ls usually very accuraLe ln predlcLlng elecLlon ouLcomes slnce Lhe 1980sŦ
1hls arLlcle dlscusses Lhe Lhree models of voLer declslon maklngť Lhe candldaLe preference
modelţ Lhe bandwagon modelţ and Lhe expecLed uLlllLy model wlLh Lhe laLLer belng mosL successfulŦ
Alsoţ lf a candldaLe were Lo wln Lhe lowa or new Pampshlre prlmarlesţ Lhey wlll galn a helpful
momenLum golng lnLo Lhe nexL elecLlonsţ llke !lmmy CarLer who was noL well known when he ran for
ÞresldenLŦ
1he flrsLţ Lhe candldaLe preference modelţ ls noL affecLed by Lhe oplnlons on a candldaLe's
elecLablllLy and chance of nomlnaLlonŦ 1he voLers plck who Lhey see mosL poslLlvely and assume Lhls
candldaLe wlll be mosL llkely Lo wln Lhe elecLlonŦ 1he secondţ Lhe bandwagon modelţ Lhe voLers are
compleLely lnfluenced by Lhe candldaLe's chance for nomlnaLlonţ buL Lhey have no concern of oplnlons
regardlng elecLablllLyŦ voLers wanL Lo be on Lhe ºwlnnlng slde" because lL's ºmore en[oyable" Lhan
supporLlng a loserŦ ln Lhe Lhlrdţ Lhe expecLed uLlllLy modelţ voLers sLay beLween elecLablllLy and Lhelr
evaluaLlons of Lhe candldaLes maklng a cholceŦ When voLers evaluaLeţ Lhey [udge Lhe uLlllLy Lhey would
galn lf Lhls candldaLe was elecLedŦ Cbvlously Lhe ouLcomes of Lhe prlmary elecLlons are lmporLanL
because Lhey show candldaLes chances Lo wlnŦ
1hls was LesLed afLer an exlL poll was glven ln uekalb counLy CA ln 1988Ŧ A self admlnlsLered
survey was glven ln LhlrLeen random preclncLs wlLhln Lhe counLyţ on who voLed democraL and who
voLed republlcanŦ 1hese small numbers recorded maLched Lhe overall LurnouL of Lhe republlcan and
democraLlc voLes wlLhln Lhe counLyŦ
8y wlnnlng Lhe new Pampshlre prlmaryţ boLh 8ush and uukakls won Lhe momenLum Lo galn
nomlnaLlons whlch Lhey may have noL won oLherwlseŦ AbramowlLz dlscovered Lhe momenLum galned ls
probably noL Lhe ºdeLermlnlng facLor" ln Lhe prlmarlesţ and lL ls noL very lmporLanL when Lhose runnlng
are noL well knownŦ Pe concludes by saylng Lhe expecLaLlons seL by Lhe medla abouL a candldaLes
performance could make a huge lmpacL ln candldaLes success as wellŦ Slmllar Lo 8epubllcan Perman
Caln runnlng for nomlnaLlon nowţ who has been a fronL runner unLll Lhe sexual abuse allegaLlons had
been made publlc agalnsL hlmţ of course pushed by Lhe medlaŦ


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