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George Friedman’s “The Next 100 Years; A Forecast for the 21st Century”
BROWSE BY TOPIC Reviewed by Bill Marmon

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“Europe is extinct.” “China cannot survive a billion pissed off peasants.” “Turkey is a power.” “The U.S. will dominate the 21st Century.” These are a few of the audacious and often controversial predictions of George Friedman, author of The Next 100 Years, A Forecast for the 21st Century, which has recently been issued in paperback with a new preface. Friedman, founder and editor of Stratfor, a respected subscription global intelligence service, was recently in Washington DC, and sat down with Joëlle Attinger and Bill Marmon of the European Institute to talk about his book. Although Friedman concedes that details of his predictions are likely to be off, he thinks he will succeed if he identifies “what will really matter” when looking back at the 21st Century. And what will matter? First, the U.S. will dominate the century because of its military and economic power and its favorable geography with Atlantic and Pacific coasts. No power will rise to challenge successful U.S. dominance. Second, the population explosion of the past century will end and populations will begin to shrink, creating profound changes, including the positive importance of attracting immigrants. Third, advanced countries will develop technologies to deal with shrinking populations, including harnessing solar power and new computer and robotic technologies. What will NOT matter? Neither Europe nor China will be major players in the 21st Century. Wow. That is a mouthful. Friedman takes pleasure in building a powerful case against what passes for conventional wisdom. “Europe has been in decline since 1917 and the destruction of Germany,” says Friedman. “It emerged from World War II as an occupied continent that had lost its empire.” But since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, “Europe has re-entered history, and started building structures (such as the European Union).” But problems are not solved and “Europe is in reality just staggering into the 21st Century.” ”Europe is too busy congratulating itself, “says Friedman. He adds, “It is like the U.S. announcing victory in 1810. There is a way to go. Big problems remain.” And Friedman does not think Europe will solve its problems or bridge its internal differences. He discounts the creation of the European Union and the euro zone as no more than a “customs union or trade bloc.” “As long as Europe cannot speak with one voice on foreign policy it is hard to see how it can influence geopolitics,” says Friedman. And because European countries have not given up sovereignty and because individual countries have different interests, it seems unlikely to Friedman that integration will coalesce enough to give Europe a meaningful role on the world stage. And what about the recently adopted Treaty of Lisbon and the appointment of a president and high commissioner for foreign affairs. “What do they do. What are their powers?” asks Friedman. “These officials could have been given powers, but Europe chose not to do that. The president has no army, no police force. The bureaucracy in Brussels does not have to be obeyed. Europe will say this is a work in process. But I see no process under way.” “As long as the decision to go to war is not in Brussels but rests with nation states, there is no integration,” says Friedman. He sees no easy or speedy end to the tension between France and Germany on one hand and other parts of Europe, like the UK, Eastern Europe and the Iberian Peninsula on the other hand. What he does see is the increasing rise of Eastern Europe in an evolution not unlike the power shift that moved from

semi-literates coming to do construction work.” The recent economic crisis demonstrated many of the weaknesses of Europe.” says Friedman.” Accession to the EU – which is unlikely to happen – is important to the secularists in Turkey who want “to nail down secularism. Italy and Spain. “It will take three years before the crisis becomes apparent. U.” says Friedman. A good example of this disconnect.” says Friedman. “are very uneasy about what is happening to Europe.” “Europe is tired.” He thinks the signs will be an increasingly nationalistic and oppressive society. “but you do have a political solution.S.” In reality.Spain in the 16th Century.” in the Ukraine. because that will drive up Chinese costs and the margin on Chinese products is too thin to sustain the increase. “I know of no European country that is acting as confidently and as unilaterally as Turkey. says Friedman. “The European image of Turkey is fixed at around 1960 as a vision of impoverished. the U. Friedman notes that one of seven export containers out of China go to Wal-Mart. The importance of the event. says Friedman.” says Friedman. says Friedman. “That showed how far out of touch the elite has become. can make as many mistakes as it wants. Friedman thinks that Russia will present a near term issue as it attempts to regain the sphere of influence of the old Soviet Union. which had to depend on the International Monetary Fund (IMF). says Friedman is the “profound divergence” between the elite perception of Europe and the popular (man-on-the-street) perception.” Bill Marmon is Assistant Managing Editor of European Affairs Magazine. and Germany and France declined to assist Eastern Europe. “Every couple of centuries there is a changing of the guard in Europe. to France and England and later to Germany.” says Friedman. Its national interests are served by maintaining a policy that balances powers off against each other. in Belarus and even in Georgia. but that the elite was so surprised at the result. can “take it [the EU] or leave it. “China is an incredibly poor country with a small segment that is essentially an extension of the United States. “Turkey is not a future power. But Europe is missing the point and almost surely will not allow Turkey in the EU. the world gets much more dangerous. “But Spain is too big to save. As long as that does not happen. It has influence in the Baltics. “This shows the vulnerability of the country. including demographic diversity. Another problem with Europe. “China is in crisis. since it has recovered much more quickly and robustly than Europe. “They are exhausted. says Friedman. .” Perhaps Friedman’s most audacious prediction concerns China.S.” Friedman does not think that the Chinese “miracle” can be extended to the almost one billion persons still living in poverty. Even moving its manufacturing plants to the interior to address unemployment will be a problem.S. says Friedman. decadent. thinks Friedman. and Europe to buy its products. which he feels will not become an important player in the 21st Century. will be able to sustain itself against a dynamic Poland backed up by the U. in the Caucasus and in Central Asia.” says Friedman. “Turkey is a power. If a global peer power does emerge. do to ensure the dominance that Friedman predicts for it? “America is in the position of Great Britain in the 19th century. “Greece will probably be ok in the end. and they call it a virtue. Portugal.S. worldly.” Turkey on the other hand is growing and dynamic.” says Friedman. was not that 57 percent of the population voted against minarets.” Friedman says Turkey was lucky NOT to be in the EU during the financial crisis.S. was the strong vote in Switzerland to prohibit the construction of Islamic mosque minarets. Friedman says.” And what should the U. the same forces that destroyed the Soviet Union.” But much of the country. will rise again and around 2020 the Russian resurgence will fail. “All of the prosperity of China is built on the willingness of the U. And problems continue in the weaker economies like Greece. But. The crisis was not tackled in Brussels but in the individual capitals. “It is hard to see how Russia.” he says. interest is not to have a global peer power. “If you are a Chinese leader you don’t have an economic solution to your problems. including Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogen. which has abandoned its industrial base in favor of exporting commodities. says Friedman.” he says. Russia is making progress already in reasserting its sphere of influence in the “Stans. Turkey has the largest and most competent army in Europe.” The broad masses in Europe. He sees Poland as the “heart of dynamism” in Europe today.

By 1980. It is geography combined with the ability to exploit it that matters.Return to: Home | Politics | International Politics Subscribe The next 100 years George Friedman Published 27 August 2009 4 comments Print v ersion Email a f riend Listen RSS Japan and Turkey form an alliance to attack the US. until the continent tore itself apart in the 20th century and lost its hold on the world. or Germany and Japan did in 1944-45. the geography of trade had shif ted. of course. and a third world war takes place in space. whoev er controlled the North Atlantic controlled Europe's access to the world and. creating the f irst truly global geopolitical sy stem in human history . and any power that had direct access to both oceans had prof ound adv antages. Another unprecedented ev ent took place a decade or so earlier. The US is secure f rom attack on land or sea. Poland becomes America’s closest ally . Mex ico makes a bid for global supremacy . It is v ulnerable to terrorist attack but. and whatev er power dominated North America became its centre of grav ity . opinion and analy sis. Just as important. Newsletter! Enter y our email address here to receiv e updates f rom the team In 1492. perhaps. Part of its adv antage is that. Vote! Will the Lib Dems beat Labour? y es no Suggest a question View comments Europe simultaneously waged a 500-y ear-long civ il war of increasing sav agery . there was no longer a Tools & Services single European nation that could be considered a global power of the f irst PDF v ersion rank. . alone among the combatants. to the point where the f ate of Australian Aborigines was determined by British policy in Ireland and the price of bread in France turned on the weather in Minnesota. European powers collectiv ely ov erwhelmed the world. drov e an economic sy stem in the 19th century that helped f und an economy which today constitutes between 25 and 30 per cent of global economic activ ity . is about 34 people per square kilometre. Newsletter! Enter y our email address below to receiv e digested summaries of the day 's essential comment. North America became the piv ot of the global sy stem. From the 15th century onwards. outside of a nuclear exchange. the Sov iet Union collapsed. the United States. These two ev ents bracketed the European age. Sounds strange? It could all happen. The US has room to PDA v ersion RSS Podcasts Email updates Special Supplements Stockists Magazine Archiv e Subscribe . That power is. depending on how y ou v alue the dollar. the US actually prof ited f rom the Second World War. Columbus sailed west. who were unaware there were Zulus. so that the Atlantic and Pacif ic were equally important. and the conf iguration of the country 's riv er sy stem. In 1991. . with it. is that while the population density of Japan is about 365 people per square kilometre and that of most European states between 100 and 300 per square kilometre. the US population density . But this itself can be traced to the country 's core geography . May ans liv ed unaware that there were Mongols. excluding Alaska. The f ertility of the land between the Appalachians and the Rocky Mountains. For 500 y ears. f aces no existential threat in the sense that Britain and France did in 1940-41. Af ter the collapse of the Sov iet Union. global trade. emerging with a thoroughly modernised industrial base. Once.

Without these buf f ers. it appears that each play er has 20 potential opening mov es.000 a y ear. The v ast majority of China's population liv es within a thousand miles of the Pacif ic coast. Xinjiang and Tibet. Its population is not expected to decline.and the US would hav e to stand still . Manchuria. they hav e borrowed f rom Machiav elli. China would hav e to triple the size of its economy . the borders of China mov e inward and China becomes v ulnerable. We use the term "geography " broadly . Most of these liv e within 100 miles of the coast.grow and it manages immigration well. as is the relationship between nations. China is blocked in all directions but the sea. On the surf ace. Geopolitics tends not to take policies or politicians v ery seriously . then at least not randomly . Geopolitics assumes two things: f irst. Casual assertions of China surpassing the US geopolitically ignore f undamental. and the f ewer mov es y ou regard as being av ailable: the better the play er. Bey ond this line.but as a landlocked island. but it goes bey ond that to look at the ef f ects of a place on indiv iduals and communities. Whether the US president is loathed or admired is of some minor immediate import. if not f lawlessly . This is a geopolitical reading of history . Its army is a domestic security f orce. These are the f oundation of geopolitical f orecasting. but the f undamentals of power are ov erarching. that the character of a nation is determined to a great extent by geography . Geopolitics argues that it is geography which def ines power. With these f our buf f ers in place. Nor do passing ev ents hav e much to do with national power. the v irtue of its people or the esteem in which it is held.000 a y ear. that human beings organise themselv es into units larger than f amilies and that they hav e a natural loy alty to the things they were born into. ov erwhelming realities. but it did not change the basic geometry of international power. China could conceiv ably ov ercome its problems. Geopolitics applies the concept of the inv isible hand to the behav iour of nations and other international actors. the Himalay as. unexpected stroke.if China were to pull ev en with the US in GDP. the people and the places. but because of Europe's f ailures and changes in global trade patterns. the stupidest ruling ancient Rome could not undermine its power. no matter how signif icant they appear at that moment. Militarily . The imbalance is there again. the more clearly y ou see y our options. and that military . Economists talk about an inv isible hand . Opinion and reputation hav e little to do with national power. second. water supply will not support large populations. Around 165 million make between $2. the more predictable the mov e. About 400 million Chinese hav e household incomes between $1.000 and $20.000 a y ear in income. The concept of American decline is casually tossed about. The recent f inancial crisis mattered. Most industrial dev elopment has taken place within a hundred miles of the coast. economic and political power are dif f erent parts of a single sy stem. seeing them as trapped in reality . China is a land of extraordinary pov erty . About 65 million Chinese people liv e in households with more than $20. The grandmaster play s with absolute predictable precision . most of ten mentioned as the challenger to the US.a concept. The f inest statesman ruling Iceland will not dominate the world. its ability to project power blocked by natural barriers. because most of these mov es are so bad that they would quickly lead to def eat. It is the pre-eminent power not because of the morality of the regime. Geopolitics and economics both hold that the play ers are rational and will pursue their self -interest. there are many f ewer. if not a term. China is secure . Han China is surrounded by f our buf f er states. There are no candidates. Consider China.000 and $2.until that one brilliant.000 a y ear. Consider the f ollowing numbers. a v olcano beneath the current regime. culled f rom of f icial Chinese statistics. bounded by mountainous jungle. It includes the phy sical characteristics of a location. Think of a chess game. but it would require most of . some other power must surpass it. but f or America to decline. the steppes of central Asia and the Siberian wasteland. while about 670 million hav e household incomes of less than $1. In f act. Inner Mongolia. The better y ou are at chess. Mao made the Long March to raise an army of desperate peasants to rectif y this sort of extreme imbalance. Its nav y exists mostly on paper and could not possibly pose a serious threat to the US. China is impotent.

The United States conducts an incautious f oreign policy . It conducts direct or surrogate wars on a seemingly random basis. not the rhetoric. There is another dimension built into US f oreign policy . The Europeans are div ided by old national patterns that prev ent them f rom mov ing in a unif orm direction. The idea of Europe becoming a multinational state with a truly integrated economic decisionmaking sy stem . The relativ e power of the US is such that it has a margin of error f ar bey ond that of the countries it conf ronts. China's limits and the EU's div isions. The recov ery of West Germany and Japan during the cold war are classic examples of this. Eurasia. Subjectiv ely .wisely or not. With the Sov iet Union's collapse.and with a global military f orce under joint command . f rom Somalia to Serbia. The world is Americentric. controls the world's oceans and space. These. These range f rom strategic guarantees and support against smaller neighbours to trade adv antages and technology transf ers. Europe. The US is to the world what Britain once was to Europe. are shadows on the wall. Both understood that the best way to do that was to maintain a balance of power in which potential challengers spent their resources f ighting each other on land. So the US has mov ed to a secondary goal. using the ideology of human rights as justif ication. howev er. based on geopolitical interests. Germany . there is currently no threat of this. The imperativ es generate ideologies (a democratic Iraq) and misconceptions (weapons of mass destruction). It encourages unrest in China's border regions. This will make the planet an uncomf ortable place. The US is doing this globally . In the 19th century . Thus. success is measured not by the pacif ication of a country . to the extent that there is perpetual unrest and disunion f rom the Atlantic to the Pacif ic. Howev er. Howev er. Russia is using the window of opportunity presented by the US absorption in disrupting the Islamic world to reclaim its sphere of inf luence in the f ormer Sov iet Union. particular f or rising powers. while in the 20th century global powers such as Britain and France declined to secondary status. a satisf actory outcome.is as distant a dream as that of China becoming a global power. is being hollowed out. nationalism continues to div ide the continent. The US interv ention resulted in a civ il war. There are three nations that are already major or emerging regional powers that will be important to the . in f act. broadly understood. a new constellation of powers f orms that might strike observ ers at the beginning of the century as unthinkable. To the extent that the Eurasian land mass is disrupted. but by its disruption. Its primary goal is alway s to prev ent the emergence of a single power that can dominate Eurasia and the European peninsula. could certainly challenge the US. Both nations depended on control of the sea to secure their interests. New powers will emerge. The US does what it can to disrupt the re-emergence of Russian national power while building relations with bordering countries such as Poland and Turkey . It is the geopolitical imperativ es. Iraq is paradigmatic. as we hav e seen during the recent f inancial crisis. f rom Iraq to Af ghanistan. The US marshals the economic resources of North America. Many of these wars appear to go badly . grow into something more dangerous. the question is how these geopolitical and strategic realities shape the rest of the century . projects f orce where it wishes . if it ev er coalesced into a unif ied economic and military power.using subordinate regional powers as surrogates. What appeared to be a f ailure was.the century to ov ercome problems of this magnitude. It also has a strategic disruptiv e imperativ e. that must be understood in order to make sense of what is going on. China is f ar weaker than it appears and is threatened with internal instability . Italy and Japan began to emerge as great powers. exchanging their willingness to incur risks f rom a major power opposed to the US f or substantial benef its. Both nations understood that the best way to retain control of the sea was to prev ent other nations f rom building nav ies. the US has carried out its mission. which is to block the emergence of any regional hegemon that could. we would think George W Bush and his critics were unaware of this. Each century . ev en if exhaustion has made that nationalism less v irulent. But that is the point of geopolitics. but its underly ing weakness will reassert itself ov er the next generation. in the long term. Let us theref ore think about the unthinkable. rather than building f leets that could challenge their control of the sea. This is not an Americentric v iew of the world.

Turkey is an established nav al power. the US-Polish relationship becomes critical. Imagining a Japanese-Turkish alliance is strange but no stranger than a Japanese-German alliance in 1939. The risk of not acting will be greater than the risk of acting. It is the f undamentals of national power.Japan to the east. Russia cannot surv iv e its economic and demographic problems indef initely . when the Muslim world has been united. It is a v ital strategic asset f or the US. whose dependence on the importation of v irtually all raw materials f orces it to secure its sea lanes. Japan is already a great power.one that China would like to hav e . the Balkans. not out of caprice but out of geopolitical necessity . Turkey to the south and Poland to the west. Both will hav e an interest in ov erthrowing the global regime the US has imposed. China must f ace its endemic social problems. relativ e to other countries. It is the world's second-largest economy . consider the case of South Korea. Its military is the most capable in the region and is also probably the strongest in Europe. It has not been a dy namic country . Poland represents the geographical f rontier between Europe and Russia and the geographical f oundation of any attempt to def end the Baltics. but dy namism comes and goes. US strategy considers any great power with signif icant maritime capabilities a threat. But . Each will hav e been a US protégé during the Russian interregnum. Ov er the centuries. Communications. Y et that is what Korea became. Most important. by the middle of the century .f rom the American and the Russian points of v iew. In 2008 the US signed a deal with Poland to instal missiles in the Baltic Sea as part of Washington's European missile def ence shield. but about Poland as a US ally . the US will hav e created substantial def ences f or those assets. including the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey will hav e a lesser but v ery real interest in being a nav al power in the eastern Mediterranean. For the US. Giv en the US strategic imperativ e to block Eurasian hegemons and Europe's unease with the US. By f ar the most important will be Japan. To gauge what it means f or a country to be a strategic asset of a global power. bey ond it. So. And both South Korea and Israel started with a much weaker base in 1950 than Poland has today . and as its power in the Muslim world rises it will dev elop a relationship with Egy pt that will jeopardise the Suez Canal and. Any suggestion in 1950 that it would become a major industrial power by the end of the century would hav e been greeted with disbelief . but by mid-century the US tendency to turn on allies and make allies of f ormer enemies will be in play . Poland. Turkey and Poland. Turkey emerges as the dominant power in the region.and an army larger than Britain's (since the Second World War. The shield is not about Iran. locked between Russia and Germany .the Russian problem . the largest among the f ormer Sov iet satellites and the eighth-largest in Europe. this has happened under Turkish power. Any great power challenging the US must destroy US space-based assets. and f ar more under US control than the other two. will be a land power. both Japan's "army " and "nav y " hav e of f icially been non-aggressiv e "self -def ence f orces"). Both countries will be under tremendous pressure f rom the established power. It has also been historically pragmatic in its f oreign policies. On its rim are three powers . If Russia weakens. That means that. South Korea f ormed a strategic relationship with the US that was transf ormativ e. f ragmented Eurasia. that matter in the long run. In the emerging competition between the US and Russia. militarily or economically . Like Israel. nav igation and intelligence are already space-based. apart f rom the British armed f orces. Poland has the 18th-largest economy in the world. Two of the three major powers will be maritime powers. and its bridge to the rest of the world. imagine an unstable. Turkey is now the world's 17th-largest economy and the largest Islamic economy . Imagining the war requires that we extrapolate technology . with a f ar more stable distribution of income and social structure than China. ostensibly to protect against "rogue states". the past century has been the aberration. it will hav e solv ed one problem . the Arabian Sea.by generating another. space is already the enabler of its military machine.US in dealing with Russia in the next decade or so: Japan. Its inf luence is already f elt in the Caucasus. It has east Asia's largest nav y . That is the basis of war. central Asia and the Arab world. it is historically the leader in the Muslim world.

It is unstable due to its drug wars. in territory that Mexicans regard as their own.com/ Post this article to Digg del. y ou see a huge f low of drug money to the south and the f low of population northward.99) http://www. The political border and the cultural border are div erging. a coalition of Turkey and Japan could f orce the US to make strategic concessions. then imagine how the thought of a thousand bomber raids in the Second World War would hav e sounded in 1900.Washington and Mexico City . When y ou look at a map of the borderland between the United States and Mexico. the power of the US will wane. In due course. But not y et. It remained this way f or 150 y ears. There are no breakthroughs required here.us newsv ine Buzz up! Reddit This article was originally published on 27 August 2009 in the issue The next 100 years Related Links Cr a sh a n d bu r n By Helena Smith 27 March Oba m a ’s h ea l t h -ca r e t r i u m ph ? Wh a t a Py r r h i c v i ct or y By Andrew Stephen . without being able to replace it. It is dif f icult to imagine an American def eat in this war. Mexico is the world's 13th-largest economy . and this surprise will hav e to f ocus on the destruction of US space f orces. and the American epoch will end. space power. in which Mexico becomes an equal power. but the cost will be much less than the bloody slaughters of Europe's world wars. The ultimate prize is North America. Until af ter the middle of the century . Perhaps ev en sooner. or in which the US retains primacy f or centuries. War depends on surprise. Washington dominated North America and Mexico City ruled a weak and div ided country . Mexico will be a prosperous. The US will win in a war where the stakes will be the world. North America is the prize. The 500 y ears of European domination of the international sy stem did not guarantee who would be the dominant European power. The enemy will be try ing to deny the US what it already has. the geopolitical order will shif t again.stratf or. and not in this century . If this sounds preposterous. It will be af ter the mid-century sy stemic war that the new reality will emerge. dumb and blind. the US will not respond. Space does not contain millions of soldiers in trenches.if the US can be rendered deaf . Af ter the American conquest of northern Mexico in the 1840s. powerf ul nation with a substantial part of its population liv ing in the American south-west. or illegal aliens. but it is dif f icult to imagine those wars continuing f or the rest of the century . or an outside power makes a play . War becomes more humane. The heirs of today 's gangsters will be on the board of art museums soon enough. Until the middle of the 19th century . Nor is there any guarantee who will be the dominant power in North America. The distance trav elled technologically between 1900 and 1945 was much greater than the one I am suggesting by 2050.US citizens. Today . there were two contenders f or domination . His book The Next 100 Years is published by Allison & Busby (£14. Mexico has become a nation of more than 100 million people with a trilliondollar economy . The sheer weight of power that the US and its Polish ally can throw against the Japanese and Turks will be ov erwhelming.icio. It will not remain this way f or another hundred. only dev elopments of what already exists. George Friedman is the founder of the private intelligence corporation Stratfor. Many areas of northern Mexico that the US seized are now being repopulated by Mexicans mov ing northward . or legal aliens. It will hav e concerns elsewhere and demographic shif ts in the US will place a premium on encouraging Mexican migration northward. One can imagine scenarios in which the US f ragments. although not major setbacks.

eh? Home FAQ M embers Login Go! 24M ar “The Next 100 Years” by George Friedman. & (quietly) M exico A World War 3 (space war) between US-Poland vs Japan-Turkey The great US-M exico confrontation of 2100 (since a war might not be possible to happen) US super power for 100 years Friedman claims that US is just in its beginning of its ascension to power.EhCafe Chit-chat about tech. and following are my notes. Poland. despite all the economic problems now. given that US is a global power. 6. However. and even was on Farid Zakaria’s book of the week section. life. I read the book recently. . 2. 4. the lines of the argument become clearer throughout the book. Turkey. and then discuss each. Friedman provides a brief explanation of Geo-Political analysis. 5. The idea is that there are certain geographic and political properties of each region and country in the world that control its future. and fun. US will remain a super power for 100 years. US will become even a grandeur super power in the next century. And he insists. Quick list of predictions: 1. 3. Book Review by arrabi Book Review (1) The Next 100 Years: A forecast for the 21st century by George Friedman is a very interesting book that made some noise. I first present a summary of his bold predictions. China will collapse by 2020 Russia will have a second collapse (the first being the soviet one) around 2020s The next 4 powers until 2060: Japan. One scan through the first few chapters doesn’t fully explain why. it will act in certain ways that are inherent in its position. Friendman states several times that no matter who is the president of the US.

the US may prevent Japanese fleets from exporting good or importing raw materials. or wants China to buy more. This will play a huge role in US dominance starting 2030. and faces 2 oceans 2. The groups are: * 1775-1825: aristocrats. "persuading" China might not be a totally economic formula. Chinese companies’ success depends on volume of exports. the credit crisis: I have to review the book to say what exactly China’s Collapse by 2020 Friedman claims that China’s economy is just like Japan in 1980: 1. 2. finally. US controls the oceans of the sea – thus controls the the global lines of commerce. In a way. If US doesn’t want to pay back. he says that just like Japan in the 80s. Friedman says that if Japan poses economic danger to US. Geo-Political analysis is similar to Value Investing – in that it assumes that there are fundamental properties for successful companies/countries. TBD) 2. it’ll be able to get out of any situation it is in – even if that involves a show or power or even war. the great depression (I have to look at the book again to summarize this correctly. US is a large country. and the cost of money is artificially low (government controls the savings rate of the citizens and what companies get the loans). US has a low population density. They need high revenue to pay off their . the 50-year cycle. but he seems to think that if the fundamentals of the US are correct. Irish? * 1875-1925: ? can’t remember * 1925-1975: city dwellers. wasp? * 1975-2025: suburbs (because of highways) 3. He doesn’t explain where the numbers come from. We do not think consciously about the possibility of war to gain wealth. 3. otherwise. Thus. The debt-to-GDP is very high. they fail. He claims that the dominant socio-political landscape changes every 50 years. We tend to believe that the smartest country economically gains dominance. and ends with a president trying desparetely to apply old solutions to new problems and fails to satisfy the new dominant group. This way of thinking is foreign for us – generation dot-com. China buys a lot of the US bonds.In a way. huge market. China’s is estimated at %25-40. Notice that "current economic state" is not listed. not profit margins. What are these fundamentals? and why US has them? Friedman lists the following: 1. english? * 1825-1875: fronteirsmen. Japan’s debt-to-GDP was ~%20 when the banking system failed there. Each cycle starts with a president who truly represents the needs and hopes of the new dominant group. eventually. Friendman further presents his own interpretation of few US history incidents: 1. Countries who have them succeed. Friedman doesn’t say this explicitly. when the populations of the advanced world will be decreasing and they will be competing for immigrants. rich resources. Immigrants will prefer US.

(will update section after reviewing the book again) 3. more details tbd The next 4 super powers: Turkey (The Islamic Khilafa) Friedman asserts that Turkey is already an economic power. This is why their prices are very low. turkey will get a lot of help from US to stand for russian influence. He expects that to happen by 2020 4. 3. He says that islamic world has many divisions and internal fights to keep islamists busy. especially in the baltics and the black sea. He predicts that Russia will go through a second rise. Thus. it had good relations with the US because of Cold War. its economy is already big. US will back it to stand for Russia. and it’ll build influence around east europe.debt and get more. The coastal cities are rich because of foreign relations. and once china falls. The next 4 super powers: Poland Poland will be US’s first line of defense against russia. Russia’s Collapse in 2020s 1. but turkey will take more of a cultural "role" and lead/control the islamic countries of the middle east. my enemy’s enemy is my friend. The fall will be due to stretching their economy and I think has to do with the resistence countries around it. He explains that even though China is communist. he asserts that the social problems we hear about are the labor pains of delivering mexico from its indsutrial phase to modern state. the country might go through a civil war (similar to that of M ao) between the poor center and the rich coast. and then a second fall. it’ll become strong. it’s in north africa – the strongest of the continents. . he says it has all the fundamentals to become a super power. thus. much like the ottoman empire before. 5. It’ll seem very friendly power until ~2050. on the site of first US recession (since US is china’s biggest market). Chinese companies & banking system will fail. And Japan to a point. 2. Thus. european countries will see Poland just like the Sovient Union before. He also claims that China’s political unity depends on economic success and payoffs. it’ll try to expand its influence in the region. The next 4 super powers: Japan He predicts Japan will start building a navy power. The next 4 super powers: Mexico M exico is friedman’s surprise. the most interesting outcome will be the rise of Poland & Turkey – backed by US – to stand for the russian giant. eventually.

After this. where mexicam americans will have a mexican government in the US. in short. Japan will also feel restrained as its sphere of influence expands.A World War 3 (space war): US-Poland vs JapanTurkey This is an interesting chapter. and even that to maybe few thousand people. mexican immigration will cause the "cultural border" between us/mexico to move north. to move to US starting 2030s. He says by 2030 the need for working-age immigrants will become very clear in all advanced nations (europe more than US). turkey and poland will have conflicts. By ~2080. US will live its golden age (just like after WW2). He says advanced weapenory will limit casualties to armies and no civilians. and it’ll see it as "protecting itself". M ost interestingly. development in robotics will reduce the need for more workers. This will cause many immigrants. and it remains an open question at the end of the book. Friedman reiterates that US will get in a war not because it wants to. unlike all other groups. US will remain the favorite because of its incentives + population density is still low. but because super powers act in predetermined way. that’s until the big mexican-us confrontation at the end of the ccentury. As a result. He also it’ll happen quickly. This will evolve into the big US-M exican confrontation by the end of the century. and US will side with Poland. turkey & Japan will blowup US’s most advanced (3rd generation) space surveilance system. The situation will become weird. They will also conduct earth attacks at all known hyper-sonic missle locations. especially M exican. The final outcome of all of this is not clear. So. Also the economy would get used to functioning in a decreasing population (unlike now when people expect real-estate prices to keep going up – which won’t be true after 2030/2050). . US will attempt to stop immigration from M exico. these advanced countries will compete for immigrants. I say confrontation and not war because Friedman predicts that some mexican/us citizens will be senators in both houses across the border. nudging turkey. Turkey and Japan feel that doing a surprise hit against US would send a message to US that it’s not the only power in the world. Economic destruction will be big. Friedman predicts that WW3 will be very peaceful. US will respond by using its 2nd generation & secret missle locations to get back very quickly at Japan & Turkey. The Great US-Mexico Confrontation of 2100 Friendman says that even UN predicts that population in the world will decrease by 2050.

2009 at 9:18 am I don’t believe this … godforbid all this mischievous nightmare . 2009 at 9:44 am Amazing Eduardo Micha Says: December 17th. Regards. this is his first prediction. very interesting book. (this is whether it’s worth reading. Overall. future. hopefully we can have the spanish version of this book very soon in M exico. However. In this age of globalization it seems that most people are connected to each other economically. but I think it was just a writting mistake. but I don’t think it’s enough. geopolitical. I think this was the theory right before World War One – so one can never be sure. us is in recession now. WW 3 3 Responses Hector Gonzalez Says: September 11th. not that I agree with it) Related Posts None S hare and Enjoy: Posted by arrabi @ 3:20 pm Tags: book. geo-political analysis makes sense. Everardo Hernandez Says: September 16th. It analyzes each country too independently from others. friedman. for me. By the way M exico is not in north of Africa as you stated. china. i’m keeping my eye on china. 2. 4.. Population will be decreasing. Pray the Lord my eyes not to witness all of this … GOd bless AM ERICA & M EXICO peace be upon us … . 2009 at 12:18 pm Very interesting article.Conclusion The book is very interesting. which makes wars and conflicts less possible. this is something he’s been saying since 2007 . 5/5 on Arrabi’s scale. future is weirder than fiction 3. and let’s see what happens there. turkey. usa. the biggest takeaways are: 1.

That said. f rom Cornell Univ ersity — spent two decades in academia. f or example — and their importance. He of f ers. space. Friedman's other major concern is something that is actually f ixed: geography . It is kind of the culmination of a lif e's work." he say s. a book such as this should be shelv ed as f iction. AUTHOR INTERVIEW: GEORGE FRIEDMAN George Friedman's 'The Next 100 Years': unpredictable By Edward Nawotka SPECIAL TO THE AMERICAN-STATESMAN Sunday." he begins. Of course. what soon f ollowed was radically dif f erent. on the v erge of a conf lict with Mexico as a result of mass immigration that has. Like some of his theories." That work is now running Stratf or. liv ing in London. are rooted in LATEST LIFE GALLERIES » Readers' wildflower photos. an elegant disquisition on the unpredictability of history by mov ing decade through decade of the 20th century . f rom within. a pittance compared with the 50 million who died in World War II.. March 22. "It will be a world war in the truest sense of the word.D. where he f ounded a precursor to Stratf or called the Center f or Geopolitical Studies. 2010 2010 Readers' dogs with kitty friends 2010 Readers' dogs in costume E-MAILED MOST POPULAR HEADLINES LATEST AP ENTERTAINMENT NEWS IMAX inks new theater deal in Japan Tribeca looks to expand notion of f ilm f estiv al Michael Douglas asks NY judge f or mercy toward son Aziz Ansari to host 19th annual MTV Mov ie Awards Sisters: Victim went to Mexico to sav e marriage MORE: Mov ies | Music | TV | Other . Examining a resurgent Russia under Putin. — the globe's lone superpower — and its ally Poland against a coalition that includes Japan and a resurgent Turkey . Friedman's choice of Austin as home f or his business might seem counterintuitiv e. "In the summer of 1900. Friedman predicts that "Central Asia will be back in the Russian sphere of inf luence by 2010" and f oresees a "rematch" of the cold war by 2020. see the world as we don't see it and are insatiable about learning new things. it won't be total war — societies try ing to annihilate societies. technically .S. which now controls most of the Middle East and commands an empire to riv al that of the Ottomans." writes 60-y ear-old-Austinite George Friedman in "The Next 100 Y ears: A Forecast f or the 21st Century . f or example. "But this is a serious work that was written to make some complicated concepts accessible to a general audience. because it changes little." As such." adding "the changes that lead to the next era are alway s shockingly unexpected. "I hire a lot French mediev al literature majors. empowered our neighbor to the south and destabilized the U." He adds. at least until it comes true. people who hav e knowledge we don't hav e. ev en skeptics will f ind that the book's v erif iable nonf iction — such as the history cited — is no less f resh when run through Friedman's mind. Austin has some adv antages: UT has a superb library — which is essential to good intelligence — and a pool of bright. quirky people f rom which to recruit. just a f ew thousand of them American. Friedman points out. pitting the U.000 liv es. most recently at Louisiana State Univ ersity . The 21st-century world war is the centerpiece of Friedman's work of speculation and prediction. total casualties of the f ighting — which will be f ought with hy personic aircraf t. but giv en the technological adv ances in precision and speed. It is." admits Friedman. 2009 Thanksgiv ing Day 2050: While most of America is "watching f ootball and napping af ter digesting a massiv e meal. "But that is a city of gossip. Poland and Turkey become world powers and why so many things that seem important to us now — such as Islamic extremism and Chinese economic dy namism — will ev entually f ade f rom relev ance.SUBSCRIBE T ODAY PRINT OR E-EDIT ION Register Now | Sign In | E-mail preferences HOME ADVERTISE NEWS BUSINESS SPORTS LIFE NEWS OPINION ENTERTAINMENT WEATHER HOOKEM. then the capital of the world.based weaponry and armored. the f uture seemed f ixed. Along the way Friedman explains how Japan.C. People who don't say 'That's impossible!'" Friedman writes in "The Next 100 Y ears" that "Conv entional political analy sis suf f ers f rom a prof ound f ailure of imagination.S..COM TRAFFIC CLASSIFIEDS BLOGS CARS HOMES JOBS MULTIMEDIA CUSTOMER SERVICE Life Life Trav el Sty le Last 7 Day s Raising Austin Books Gardening Consumer Health Green Site Web Archive Web Search by YAHOO! BOOKS. Bef ore that Friedman — who has a political science Ph. This 21st-century Pearl Harbor will lead the world into war. We wanted some distance f rom that in which to think. "As a consequence. f rom his cell phone while on book tour. The f requency of wars — between France and Germany . "Some people hav e called me a hustler and suggested that a book like this is somehow f riv olous. D." he say s. explaining what the world looked like then and what happened a mere 10 y ears later. It's easy to conf use the discussion about who is going to be promoted with making history .S. ov er the long term. "Y ou would think an intelligence organization would best be serv ed by being in Washington. "Geography is important.." Of course. The book ends with the U. a priv ate intelligence company Friedman f ounded in Austin in 1996. battery -powered f oot soldiers — will cost perhaps 500." the Japanese launch moon-based missiles and destroy most of the United States' orbiting Battle Stars.. the same things happen ov er and ov er again.

TX Director of Nursing K San Marcos. our actions post-9/11.S.and it goes f rom being an unprecedented disaster to cy clical." Featured Advertiser Barton Springs Nursery Red Barn Garden Centers Jeff LaMour. We bailed out Chry sler in the '70s. it seems.. "The one thing Americans lack and need the most is perspectiv e. It is a strategy that will play itself out in the many small wars the U. Perhaps the book serv es as a palliativ e in this age of economic uncertainty . is likely to remain the world's primary decision maker.World War II and is still immature." he notes. This message has f ound a welcome reception among readers. we bailed out sav ings and loans in the '80s.M. graceless and in many way s unsophisticated.'s behav ior to that of a teenager.S. Take the current f inancial crisis.com Bastrop Adv ertiser Cedar Park Citizen Lake Trav is View Leander Ledger . indeed. Friedman is sanguine. is likely to f ind itself inv olv ed in during the next century — none of which we will necessarily want to "win.S. M. was. Austin Thyroid & Endocrinology Austin Wellness Clinic Hill Country Water Gardens & Nursery Austin Sports Medicine Foot Solutions Edible Arrangements Austin Plastic Surgery Institute Richard J. TX VIEW ALL TOP JOBS | SEARCH FOR A JOB NEWS Local Virtual Capitol Williamson State Crimetracker StatesmanWatch Obituaries Database Central Nation World Lottery BUSINESS Technology Personal Finance Area Employers Employment Real Estate AP Business OPINION Insight Ben Sargent SPORTS Longhorns Longhorns Gameweek Aggies HS Football High School Recruiting Outdoors Golf Area Pro Teams NFL NBA MLB AP Sports News LIFE Style Trav el Gardening Green Health & Medical Raising Austin Books Faith Life Guide Weddings Season for Caring WEATHER TRAFFIC Traffic Cameras MULTIMEDIA Collectiv e Vision Interactiv es Galleries BLOGS ENTERTAINMENT A-List Ev ents Music Mov ies Telev ision Arts Recreation Spas/Salons Food/Drink MOBILE/RSS Statesman Austin360 iPhone application RSS CLASSIFIEDS Cars Homes Jobs Merchandise CUSTOMER SERVICE Member Center E-mail Newsletters Subscribe to the Statesman Sign up for the eEdition Subcriber Serv ices Where to buy the Statesman Buy Photos Readers Panel Careers at the Statesman Internships Newspapers in Education Inside Line News tips Reader rewards Site map Ethics Policy ADVERTISE Print Online Classifieds (Print & Online) eTearsheets Newspaper Ads MARKETING Community Dev elopment DoGood Glossy Concert series Marketing Readers panel Special Sections AFFLIATED SITES Ahora Si Hookem. which no other power has been able to do. TX Help Desk Technician TDS Buda.S. "There is no question that American execution of the war in Iraq has been clumsy . nearly 100. f or example. which explains. so much so that the book has become a surprise best-seller.. LLC View More State-Wide Program Manager 1 Austin.P. aims to prev ent any one f rom f orming a coalition that of f ers a real challenge to the U. The U. and we're bailing out banks today .S. Sweet Berry Farm." Friedman of ten compares the U.'s power is based on its Nav y and ability to control both oceans. the Atlantic and the Pacif ic." He then adds the kicker: "But on a broader. In my lif etime the world has ended f rom a f inancial standpoint at least sev en times. the United States has won its war. f or example. an adolescent in its simplif ication of issues and in its use of power.. So long as the Muslims are f ighting each other. that does not matter. Jim Hornf ischer. Wiseman. 1984. population and technology . 5 on the New Y ork Times best-seller list in January and has remained on the list." This war. by v irtue of its geography .D. "Look at 1972. D. The U. It debuted at No. more strategic lev el.S. According to Friedman's Austin-based literary agent." Ultimately .000 copies of the book are in print. Friedman argues that the U. On the subject of the current crisis.

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