Tham Dinh Du An Dau Tu

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THM NH D N U T B qua nhng khi nim hn lm v nhng nh ngha cha ng bit bao ngn t hoa m, gy tranh ci v tn km nhiu giy mc, bn cht ch thc ca d n u t suy cho cng ch n gin l vic b ra nhng ng tin ngy hm nay k vng s thu c chng v trong tng lai. Dng tin chi ra hm nay l thc nhng dng tin s thu v trong tng lai mi ch l d on, hy cn l nhng con s v hn, i khi c gt gia rt p, nm yn lnh trn nhng trang giy trng m thi. Chnh v ci ngy mai cha bit y m ai cng t ra c l khi ngh v d n. Nhng tin t c tnh thi gian. Ti, bn, cc nh t bn v c B Ngoi chn qu na, ai cng mun nhn c ng tin chc chn ngy hm nay (ng tin an ton) hn l nhng ng tin khng chc chn (ng tin ri ro) vo nm sau. Mt khc, cc ngun lc lun hn hp ch khng phi l v tn. Thm nh, la chn v quyt nh u t vo mt d n cng c ngha l chp nhn b qua c hi u t vo mt d n khc. C nh vy, d n khng c g l gh gm c m tri li, n cha ng nhng iu rt gn gi vi suy ngh t nhin ca tt c mi ngi. Nhng cu hi tht n gin v bnh thng nh vy s tr thnh ch dn dt cho cc tho lun ca chng ny. Do phm vi ca ch quyn sch, mt s ni dung su hn v thm nh d n s khng c dp cp n . Phn ny ch nhm tp trung tho lun nhng vn k thut: tnh thi gian ca tin t; k thut chit khu dng tin; h thng cc ch tiu nh gi d n, x l lm pht, k thut phn tch ri ro ca d n.
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I. V sao tin t c tnh thi gian Mt ng tin c gi tr khc nhau vo hai thi im khc nhau. Khong cch thi gian cng di v c hi sinh li cng cao th s khc bit trong gi tr gia hai thi im ca n cng ln. Qu vy, nu bn cho bn thn ca mnh mn s tin 50 ngn ng vo bui sng, n bui tra th nhn li . Lc y, 50 ngn l nh nhau, hay ni cch khc, bn khng thy c s khc bit no v gi tr thi gian ca tin t. Nhng nu bn mua c phiu ca Cng ty VaBiCo cch y hai nm vi gi 40 ngn ng mt c phiu, tt nhin mc ch mua (u t) l kim li, th li l cu chuyn khc. Sau khi mua, gi c phiu c lc tng cao hn 40 ngn, bn bo hy ch ln na kim li nhiu hn; c lc gi rt xung thp hn 40 ngn, bn hy vng n s ln tr li. Hm nay trn th trng gi ng 40 ngn, v cn tin nn bn mang i bn. Bn tng b ra 40 ngn ng cch y hai nm, by gi thu li cng ng 40 ngn ng. Lc ny, bn c ni l hu vn? Cu tr li chn hn l khng. V nh vy, bn tha nhn rng cng s tin 40 ngn ng, gi tr ca chng s khc nhau vo hai thi im khc nhau. C t nht l ba l do sau y c th dng gii thch v tnh thi gian ca tin t . 1.1 Chi ph c hi ca tin ng tin lun c c hi sinh li, n c th dng u t v c li ngay lp tc. Ni theo cch hn lm hn l lun c chi ph c hi cho vic s dng tin . Khi bn u t vo c phiu cng c ngha l chp nhn b qua c hi sinh li t vic u t mua t . Nu li sut tin gi ngn hng l 10% nm, vic u t c phiu VaBiCo trn y ti thiu cng lm bn mt i c hi kim c s tin li l 8 ngn (= 40 ngn ( 20%) nu bn khim tn, hoc c th ni
l nht gan, chp nhn hng mt li sut thp nht bng cch gi tit kim ngn hng (cha tnh n li kp ). Dng tin u t vo d n l vic hy sinh li ch ngy hm nay k vng vo nhng li ch ln hn ngy mai. Ngay c khi bn s dng tin cho tiu dng cng vy. Mt s tiu dng hin ti s em li cho bn tha dng sm hn v cao hn l s ch i dnh n tng lai! V nu bn chu nhn thm chic xe Spacy hm nay u t kim li v 3 nm sau chng l no cng ch l chic Spacy! Bn phi c thng v s tr hon tiu dng ny, phn thng l li sut (hoc sut chit khu). S nghin cu phn k thut chit khu dng tin. 1.2 Tnh lm pht T ngy c in ko v nng thn, Ngoi mun mua mt my bm nc ti vn rau ca Ngoi. Vn rau tng mt thi nui con by gi nui chu ang hc i hc nm th ba ngnh k ton mt trng i hc danh gi Si Gn. Ngoi c 4 triu, gi my bm 4,4 triu nn Ngoi khng tin. a chu cng "hin k" gi ngn hng mt nm sau tin mua my (li sut 10% nm). Khi Ngoi cm c 4,4 triu trong tay th gi my bm, c ngun gc nhp ngoi by gi tng hn 5 triu. Mt ln na Ngoi li khng tin. Ngoi li tip tc cm tm lng cong on ti tng gnh nc nh Ngoi tng quen chu ng sut mt i c cc, nhc nhn . an i, a chu "tr thc" ni rng d sao Ngoi cng li c 0,4 triu (?). Khng. Ngoi mt do phi ng mt th thu lm pht m Ngoi no c bit bao gi. 1.3 Tnh ri ro Ai m bit c ngy sau ri s ra sao? Mt ng tin s nhn c trong tng lai chc chn l khng c g chc chn c. Nhng ri ro ca thin tai hay chin tranh, s thay i th ch chnh sch hay nhng th lc d di ca th
trng cnh tranh, trng thi nn kinh t tng trng hay suy thoi, ch trng chnh ph tip tc bo h hay m ra hi nhp, bnh yn hay khng hong v v vn nhng th rt kh nh lng khc, lun rnh rp. B ra ng vn trong hon cnh , ngi ta cn c mt phn thng b p . Vn khng phi l s ri ro, s th khng lm, m l chp nhn v nh i ri ro nh th no. Ri ro cng cao th phn thng i hi phi cng ln. Ngc li cng hon ton ng nh vy, li nhun cng nhiu th ri ro cng lm (high return, high risk) tr thnh bi hc s ng u tin cho mi kha hc v qun tr kinh doanh. C ngi mua bt ng sn vi hy vng t li sut 30% nm, trong khi c ngi chp nhn gi tit kim ngn hng hng li sut 6% nm. C ngi u t chng khon cng ty li sut 20% nm th cng c ngi chn mua tri phiu chnh ph li sut 7% nm. Khng c g l c. l s sng phng ca th trng. C hi l nh nhau i vi tt c mi ngi . II. K thut chit khu dng tin C th ni rng chit khu dng tin l ci trc ca nn ti chnh hin i. N tr thnh mt kin thc cn bn khng ch dnh ring cho cc nh qun tr ti chnh m cn l ca bt k ai, bt k lnh vc hot ng no. Mt ch bn hng Ch Bnh Ty cng tha bit rng cho vay tin vi mt li sut rt thp khi ch t bt k hp ng vi mt cng ty bo him nhn th. Trong mc ny, chng ta s nghin cu cc phng php chit khu dng tin cng nhng ng dng rt i thc ca chng. 2.1 Gi tr tng lai ca mt ng Nu bn gi ngn hng 100 (n v tin), li sut 10% nm, mt nm sau bn s c: 110 = 100 + 100 10% = 100 (1 + 10%)
Bn tip tc gi s tin 110 ngn hng, mt nm sau na bn s nhn c: 121= 110 + 110 10% = 110 (1 + 10%) Thay 110 = 100 (1 + 10%), ta c th vit: 121= 100 (1 + 10%) (1 + 10%) = 100 (1 + 10%)2 khi qut, t: PV = 100 FV2= 121 r = 10% n=2 Ta c: FV2 = PV (1 + r)2 Tng t cho FV3, FV4, FV5,,v: FVn = P (1 + r)n Trong , PV : gi tr s tin hin ti (present value) r: n: li sut (rate) s nm (number) cng thc (1)
FVn :gi tr tng lai (future value) ca s tin PV sau n nm, vi li sut l r, k ghp li (vo vn) l nm. V c bit, H s (1 + r)n, nhn t lm cho gi tr t PV bin thnh FVn chnh l gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng ng vi li sut l r, thi gian l n. (1+r)n cn c gi l h s tch ly . V h s tch ly lun ln hn hoc bng 1 (( 1). Gi tr tng lai lun ln hn (hoc bng) vi gi tr hin ti. (Xem ph lc cc bng h s tch ly cui sch)
Trong cng thc (1) v c cc cng thc tip theo ta thy c cc yu t: FV, PV, n, r. V d gi l "ton ti chnh", "chit khu dng tin" hay l g gh gm i na th vn l vic i tm gi tr cc yu t trn bng cc bi ton nhn chia, quy tc tam sut v cng n gin. Mt ln na, vn khng phi l tnh ton m l s vn dng chng nh th no trong i thc. Mt khc, tt c nhng g thuc v tnh ton c my tnh lm (to do), b no nh b ca con ngi ch dnh ngh (to think) m thi. ng lo lng cc cng thc! Tt c cc tnh ton trong chng ny (v c quyn sch) u c hng dn Excel. ( V d 1.1.1: Tnh gi tr tng lai FVn Bn s c bao nhiu tin khi tt nghip i hc (4 nm) nu by gi (u nm th nht) bn mang 2 triu gi vo ngn hng, vi li sut c nh 10% nm. S tin 2 triu vi li sut 10% nm, sau thi gian 4 nm s tr thnh: FV = PV (1+r)n FV = 2(1+10%)4 = 2 1,46 = 2,92 triu ng (h s tch ly 1,46 c c ct 10% v hng 4 trong bng gi tr tng lai ca mt ng, phn ph lc cui sch) ( V d 1.1.2: Tnh li sut r Li sut no lm cho s tin 2 triu tr thnh 2,92 triu sau 4 nm? 2,92=2(1+r)4 Vit cch khc: (1+r)= 4 1,46 =1,461/4=1,1
Vy, r = 0,1 hay 10% ( V d 1.1.3: Tnh thi gian n Phi mt bao nhiu nm, tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam tng gp 2 ln so vi hin nay, nu nn kinh t chng ta phn u gi c tc tng trng u hng nm l 7,2%? p dng cng thc (1) 2=(1+7,2%)n =(1,072)n Ly logarit hai v Ln 2 = n Ln 1,072 Suy ra Kt qu: phi mt n 10 nm. ( V d 1.1.4 Tnh thi gian n (tip theo) Phi mt bao nhiu nm, tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam bng vi mc nm 1995 ca mt s quc gia? V d: GDP bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam hin nay l 450 la, v phn u t tc tng trng hng nm l 7,5% th cn lu lm. Bn s nh Excel tnh nhanh chng cho bn kt qu bun sau y . GDP u ngi ca Vit Nam Tc tng trng H s tch ly 1 nm (=1+0,075) Ln 1,075 Quc gia GDP u ngi 1995 (USD) So vi Vit Nam (ln) 450 7,5% 1,075 0,0723 2 Lni S nm cn thit
Nht Bn Hoa K Singapore Thailand
9.640 26.980 26.730 2.740
88 60 59 6
4,48 4,09 4,08 1,81
62 57 56 25
HNG DN EXCEL (cc tnh ton trong nhng v d trn) (1) Bnh phng, cn s Bn c th s dng phm nng tnh nhanh cc php tnh ly tha, cn s nh sau: Ly tha: Shift v du ^. V d bn mun tnh 23, bn ch cn nh: =2^3 v OK, Excel s cho bn kt qu l 8. Cn s: Shift v du ^, m ngoc n, nh phn s vi t s l 1 v mu s l bc ca cn, ng ngoc n v OK. V d bn mun tnh bn s nh nh sau: = 8^(1/3), kt qu s l 2. (2) Hm Ln Tng t, dng phm nng tnh nhanh gi tr logarit. V d bn mun tnh Ln 88, bn s nh: =Ln(88), Excel s cho bn kt qu l 4,48. Nhng nu bn mun i thm cc hm Excel lm quen, ri thn v yu, th tng t cc hm thng k (Statistical) c hng dn cc chng trc, nhng by gi l hm ton v lng gic (Math&Trig). u tin bn bm nt fx, chn loi hm Math&Trig, tn hm l Ln chng hn, nh di y:
Nh l ch cn tnh mt s thi, sau dng lnh copy b ph thy Excel tnh cc s cn li. (3) Hm FV Cng trong fx, bn chn hm ti chnh (financial) v bn s c rt nhiu th, trong c hm FV.
Lu : ( Bn s b qua Pmt, n mc gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u, ta s tr li hm ny. Khi s dng phm nng bn s b qua bng cch bm 2 ln du phy, du ngn cch cc khai bo tng ng trong bng tnh trn y. =- FV(C1,C2,,C3) ( c ch type dng khai bo thi im thanh ton, nu u k th khai 1, nu trng th Excel mc nh l 0, tc cui k . (4) Hm Goal seek Sau khi bn tnh FV ca 100 ng sau 3 nm vi li sut 10% l 133,1 ng, by gi bn mun bit li sut 12% th s l bao nhiu, bn a chut vo 10% sa thnh 12% ri OK (tc Enter) bn s c ngay kt qu mi. Tng t, bn s i s nm Lm c iu ny v bn lin kt cng thc trc .
Nhng nu bn mun bit gi tr tng lai s l 172 ng th li sut phi l bao nhiu, th sao? Tt nhin bn s m mm, tc ln lt cho thay i li sut, mi ln mt t cho n khi no FV bng ng 172 mi thi! Nhng trong trng hp ny, c hm Goalseek (tm kim kt qu) gip bn .
Excel: Tools/Goalseek Bn ch cn bm OK th cha 10% ( B1) s tr thnh 19,8% v cha gi tr 133,1 ( B5) s tr thnh 172 lp tc.
Nu mun gi kt qu mi, bm OK; nu mun tr tr v gi tr c, bm Cancel. n nay th bn thy rng, vic tnh FV, PV, r, n l chuyn d nh mc tin trong ti.
(5) Bng h s tin t Tc cc bng tnh gi tr tng lai (h s tch ly) v gi tr hin ti (h s chit khu) ca tin t (ph lc cui sch).
Bn hy m Excel ra, np cc gi tr li sut nh mun nh sau:
y chng qua cng vic lin kt cng thc, mt bi tp s ng u tin khi bt u lm quen vi bng tnh Excel. Nhng phng h c bn cha bit nn ti hng dn c th mt cht . V ch mt ln ny thi, ln sau s vn tt hn. Bc 1: nh my cc li sut m bn thng dng v bao nhiu ty thch, theo hng (thm ch theo ct cng c); nh my s nm 1,2,3,4 theo ct, nh l ch cn nh 1, 2 thi. V n s l mt dy s u, bn nh du khi (tc bi en) hai 1 v 2 ri copy xung n khi no mi tay th thi. Excel thng minh lun chu o v thu hiu bn.
Bc 2: t chut ti B2, g du bng (=), m ngoc n, nh s 1, g du cng (+), nhp chut vo B1 ch li sut, ng ngoc n, g du nn (^), nhp chut vo A2 ch s nm, Enter. B2 s hin ra h s 1.05. y l gi tr tng lai ca mt ng vi thi gian 1 nm v li sut 5%. Bc 3: Tri (c nh) A2 (bng cch t con tr vo ch A2 trn thanh cng thc ri bm mt ln F4, khi a ch b tri s xut hin du $ hai bn), bm Enter hoc nhp chut vo du "tick" ( (nm bn tri du "="), tr li. chut vo B2 v copy theo hng, ta s c hng h s trn. Bc 4: a chut tr li B2. Tri B1 (bng cch t con tr vo ch B1 trn thanh cng thc ri bm mt ln F4), m tri A2 (bng cch t con tr vo ch A2 trn thanh cng thc ri bm ba ln F4 ), bm Enter hoc nhp chut vo du "tick" (, tr li. chut vo v tr B2 v copy theo ct, ta s c ct h s trn. C th bn tip tc cho ht bng. Lc ny, mt ngn (no ) ca tay tri h trn nt F4 ch tri (bm mt ln F4) v m tri (bm ba ln F4); tay phi r chut n cc cn thit "tick" OK v copy. V c th, bn cng lm cho cc bng h s cn li nh trong phn ph lc. Khi thc hin xong, bn nh trang tr cho p (format) v lu gi li (tt nhin). Khi cn thay i mt li sut no bn ch vic a chut ln cha cc li sut, nh my li sut mong mun bn s c cc h s thay i tng ng. Nh chia kinh nghim vi ngi khc v format mt bng tht p, ng thnh cun (c lm ba giy thm!) tng c gio dy mn ti chnh cng ty v tng cho bn b. Chc bn thnh cng.
2.2 Gi tr hin ti ca mt ng T cng thc (1) ta suy ra: PV = cng thc (2) Trong , r: sut chit khu Hoc c th vit cch khc: PV = FV
1 n ( 1+ r)
d dng thy c trong ,

1 goi la he so chiet khau 1. Va ngc lai (1+ n r)
vi he so tch luy, he s chit khu lun nh hn hoc bng 1 (( 1). Gi tr hin ti lun nh hn (hoc bng) vi gi tr tng lai.
1
Discounting factor
(Xem ph lc cc bng h s chit khu cui sch). Lu rng trong cng thc (2), sut chit khu r v thi gian n u nm di mu s. Ring n gin v mt s hc cng thy rng, thi gian cng di v sut chit khu cng cao th gi tr hin ti (PV) cng thp. Ngc li vi cng thc (1) tnh gi tr tng lai, thi gian n cng di li v li sut r cng cao th gi tr tng lai cng ln. ( V d 1.2.1: Tnh gi tr hin ti PV Tng lai 5 nm sau, bn s nhn c s tin l 1610 (n v tin) th by gi gi tr ca n l bao nhiu, vi c hi sinh li ca vn l 10% nm? Gi tr hin ti ca s tin 1610 s nhn trong tng lai sau 5 nm, vi sut chit khu 10% s l: PV = 1610 ( 1+ 10%) 5 = 1610 1,610 = 1610 0,261 = 1000 Trong , 0,621 l h s chit khu. Xem ph lc, bng gi tr hin ti ca mt ng, ct 10% v hng 5. Nu ai ha cho bn s tin l 1 ng sau 5 nm, vi li sut ngn hng gi nh l 10% nm, bn s ni rng: "hy a cho ti 0,621 ng by gi, cng c". Nu bn nhn 0,621 ng v mang gi n vo ngn hng th bn cng s c 1 ng sau 5 nm. Ni cch khc, 0,621 ng ngy hm nay (hin ti) s tng ng 1 ng sau 5 nm (tng lai), vi sut chit khu 10% nm. T y, ngi ta cn c mt khi nim gi l "dng tin tng ng" .
1
1
( V d 1.2.2: Tnh sut chit khu r Ly v d 1.2.1, bn s hi rng vi sut chit khu no m ngi ta cho rng gi tr hin ti ca s tin 1610 s nhn c sau 5 nm ch l 1000. Bn s lm bi ton ly tha, cn s ging nh tnh li sut mc 1.1. Mt khc, by gi bn c cc cng c c lc trn Excel. Excel: Hm PV thc hin tng t nh FV hng dn trn y. =-PV(sut chit khu, thi gian, ,gi tr tng lai)/OK. (nh cch 2 du phy sau khai bo thi gian) 2.3 Gi tr tng lai ca mt ng u nhau Cng thc : FVA = cng thc (3) Trong , A l s tin u (Annuity) ( V d 2.3.1: Tnh FVA Mi u nm, bn mang 100 (n v tin) u nhau gi vo ngn hng, vi li sut l 10%. Sau 5 nm bn s c s tin l bao nhiu?
( 1+ 10%) 5 1 FVA = 100 10%
FVA = 100 [ 6,105] = 610,5 Trong , 6,105 l gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng u nhau (xem ph lc v cc bng tnh gi tr tin t) 6,105 chng qua l tng cng cc gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi li sut 10% v (khong cch) thi gian ln lt l 0, 1, 2, 3 v 4.
S dng cng thc (1), bn tnh gi tr tng lai ca tng 1 ng v cng li nh sau: 1: 1,1: Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 0 nm. Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 1 nm.
1,21: Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 2 nm. 1,331: Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 3 nm. 1,464: Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 4 nm. Cng: 6,105: Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng tin u nhau sau thi gian 5 nm, vi li sut r = 10%. Chng ta s lu n s 0 (m ti c tnh in m): Ly tha trong cc cng thc l ch khong cch thi gian ch khng phi nm lch. Thi im chi 1 ng ln cui cng cng chnh l thi im tnh FV nn khong cch thi gian l 0. [=(1+10%)0=1]
-
( V d 2.3.2: Tnh A Mt cng ty mun c s tin 610,5 triu u t my mc thit b vo 5 nm ti th hng nm phi dnh s tin u nhau l bao nhiu, bit li sut nm l 10%. T cng thc (3), ta suy ra:
( 1+ r) n 1 A = FVA r
= 610,5
( 1+ 10%) 5 1 10%
= 610,5 6,105
= 100 ( V d 2.3.3: Tnh n Bn v ngi yu ca bn u mi ra trng, tch cp hng thng c 2 triu ng v mang gi vo ngn hng, vi li sut 1% thng. Bit bao gi i uyn ng mi c s tin 38 triu lm l hp hn? Hy bm ly cng thc gc: FVA = = 38 (triu ng) C t nht l ba cch bn i tm n (s thng). (i) Bn c nhn ln chia xung, chuyn v qua li, khi thun li th ly Ln hai v tnh n. (ii) Bn hy tnh h s trong ngoc, trng hp ny thy r h s bng 19 (= 38 2), tra bng gi tr tng lai mt ng u nhau ti ct r=1% v xem ng vi hng n bng bao nhiu, chnh l s cn tm. (iii) Bn dng hm Nper trn Excel. Tt nhin ti khuyn bn chn cch th ba v khng qun hng dn di cui mc ny. Hai bn cng tnh thy khng cn bao lu na, ch c 17,5 thng na thi (n=17,5). ( V d 2.3.4: Tnh r C 2 cng ty bo him nhn th: Dudenxu v Aihonai p dng phng thc bn bo him (tc l vay tin ca khch hng y) nh sau: Dudenxu thu u ca bn hng qu l 1,5 triu ng, nu sau 5 nm m khng c g xy ra, tc chng c tai nn g c th cng ty s tr li cho bn s tin l: 31,17 triu ng. Aihonai thu u ca bn hng qu l 1,4 triu ng, nu sau 6 nm tt c vn bnh yn, tc nh tri bn chng
h hn g m cng ty vn cha ph sn , th h s tr li cho bn s tin l: 35,11 triu ng. Bn chn mua bo him (tc cho vay) cng ty no ng v phng din li sut? gii bi ton ny (cng gip cho cc i l thnh thong vn gi in cho bn y), bn c cng thc, mm mui v sn sng ch bin. FVA chnh l s tin bn s nhn khi kt thc hp ng, A n l s tin bn phi tr u hng qu, l s k (s qu), v d nu 5 nm l 20 qu. (1) Vi cng ty Dudenxu Ta vit li cng thc (3) d theo di
( 1+ r) n 1 FVA = A r
H s trong ngoc, tc gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng bng nhau vi thi gian l 20 k v li sut l r, s bng:
( 1+ r) 20 1 = 20,78 r
( 1+ r) 20 1 31,17=1,5 r
r = 0,4% (li sut qu, tc 1,6% nm ) V nguyn tc, bn s tra bng gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng bng nhau hng 20 tm thy h s 20,78, ri nhn ngc ln xem ng vi ct r l bao nhiu. n y, bn s bo rng khng c s no ging nh vy trong bng c, ch c gn gn thi. L ra ti phi tho lun vi bn phng php ni suy (m vn phi dng n bng h s) tnh r trong trng hp ny nhng tm thi ti li mun chn cch khc .
Th nht, bng h s l do bn t lp ( hng dn trn) mun li sut no m chng c; th hai, bn cng bit s dng hm ly tha, cn s, c bit l Goalseek. V th ba, n s c hng dn tnh trn Excel cui mc ny. (2) Vi cng ty Aihonai Cch tnh tng t, r = 0,38% (li sut qu, tc 1,5% nm) 2.4 Gi tr hin ti ca mt ng u nhau L mt cng thc c rt nhiu p dng trong thc t, nht l cc lnh vc u t trn th trng ti chnh - tin t. Cng thc, suy ra t (1) v (3): PVA = cng thc (4) ( V d 2.4.1: Tnh PVA Bn bit gi thu nh (tr hng nm, vo cui nm) l 500 (n v tin). Nhng nu ngi cho thu i ly trc mt ln cho 5 nm th bn nn thng lng vi h gi bao nhiu? Nu li sut bnh qun th trng l 10%.
( 1+ 10%) 5 1 PVA = 500 5 10%(1+ 10%)
= 500 [3,791] = 1895 (n v tin) H s chit khu 3,791 chnh l gi tr hin ti ca mt ng bng nhau vi thi gian l 5 nm v sut chit khu l 10%. (Xem ph lc h s chit khu cui sch). 3,791 chng qua l tng cng cc gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi sut chit khu 10% v (khong cch) thi gian ln lt l 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. S dng cng thc (2), bn tnh gi tr hin ti ca tng 1 ng (ph lc h s chit khu cui sch) v cng li nh sau:
0,909: Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 1 nm. 0,826: Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 2 nm. 0,751: Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 3 nm. 0,683: Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 4 nm. 0,621: Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 5 nm. Cng: 3,791: Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng u nhau sau 5 nm vi sut chit khu r = 10%. (Lu rng, thi gian cng di gi tr hin ti cng nh) ( V d 2.4.2: Tnh r Bn d tnh mua mt chic xe gn my hiu BadDream III gi hin ti trn th trng l 2000 USD, khng tin nn bn phi mua tr gp. C hai ca hng bn xe m bn s chn: Ca hng Gia Long v ca hng Hng Vng. Phng thc thanh ton ca hai ca hng c cho trong bng di y. Bn s chn mua ti ca hng no, ng v phng din li sut?
Gi xe hin ti Tr ngay Tr chm Mi ln tr S ln tr Thi gian tr Li sut (2 thng) Li sut (1
2000 CH Gia Long CH Hng Vng 400 500 1600 1500 300 225 6 8 12 16 3,48% 4,24% 1,74% 2,12%
n v USD USD USD ln thng
thng) ( V d 2.4.3: Tnh A Gi mua tr ngay ca chic laptop hiu GreenField (vi tnh xch tay - notebook) l 1000 USD, nu mua (bn) tr gp vi li sut bnh qun th trng l 10% nm, tr u trong 3 nm th mi ln tr s l bao nhiu? T cng thc (4), ta suy ra:
( 1+ r) n 1 A = PVA n r(1+ r)
( 1+ 10%) 3 1 = 1000 3 10%(1+ 10%)
= 1000 2,487 = 402 USD Trong , h s chit khu 2,487 l gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng u nhau vi sut chit khu 10% v thi gian l 3 nm (xem ph lc cui sch). Ta c th ng dng lp mt lch tr n nh sau:
Li sut nm Vay n (u nm 1) Nm N u k Li pht sinh Tr u, trong : - N gc - Li vay N cui k
10% 1,000 0
1,000
1 1,000 100 402 302 100 698
2 698 70 402 332 70 366
3 366 37 402 366 37 0
Lu : Cc tnh ton c lm trn s ( bt ri mt!) v, du chm (.) hay phy (,) trn Excel c biu hin kiu ting Anh ( tp nhn cho quen!). Khi bn tp
trung cao vo nhng iu ct li hay tng ca vn , bn s bit b qun nhng iu vn vt (!) . ( V d 2.4.4: Tnh n Nhm gi chn nhn vin gii, cng ty quyt nh mi nhn vin cng lm ch cng ty bng cch bn mt l c phiu tr gi 20 triu cho anh (hay c) ta, tr vo lng mi thng 0,5 triu. Li sut bnh qun th trng hin ti 6% nm (theo cch n gin l 0,5% thng), phi tr bao nhiu thng lng mi xong? Tng t v d 2.3.3 ca i uyn ng trn y, nhng bn s tnh n trong cng thc (4), gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u.
( 1+ 0,5%) n 1 PVA = 20 = 0,5 n 0,5%(1+ 0,5%)
Bn s bin i, ly Ln v tnh n nh trn y. Tuy nhin hy xem hng dn trn Excel cui mc ny. thy n = 45 thng Ti sao khng phi l 40 thng (= 20 0,5)? n gin ging nh l cng ty cho nhn vin ny vay (vi li sut 6% nm) ch khng phi cho mn khng. V vy c cu hi vui. Sau khi cng khai cch tnh trn, nhn vin than phin rng, li sut th trng hin nay l 12% nm sao cng ty tnh vi ti ch 6% nm? Bn s tr li ra sao v s bo li cho nhn vin thi gian tr lng l bao nhiu thng? Trn bng tnh Excel bn di, bn ch cn thay i 6% tr thnh 12% thy rng, thi gian tr lng s ko di ti 51 thng! Nh rng, trong cng thc PV ni chung, r nm di mu s, r cng ln th PV cng nh. Nm na l, thu 20 triu, thi gian phi di hn.
2.5 Quan h gia gi tr hin ti v gi tr tng lai ca cc dng ngn lu Khi nu cng thc (4) gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u nhau, ta thy rng n c suy ra t cng thc (3) gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u nhau. Trong khi , gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u nhau l tng cng gi tr hin ti ca tng dng ngn lu n (cng thc 2), v gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u nhau l tng cng gi tr tng lai ca tng dng ngn lu n (cng thc 1). Bn thy y! Bn v anh hng Lng Sn Bc tp trung c ri y. Mt tnh ton trong bng sau y gip bn t tm tt tng v cc mi quan h gia cc dng tin. Li sut Thi gian (nm) Ngn lu hin ti H s tch ly Gi tr tng lai Sut chit khu Thi gian (nm) Ngn lu tng lai H s chit khu Gi tr hin ti Ta c:
6105 l gi tr tng lai ca dng tin
10% 5 0 1 2 3 4 100 1000 1000 1000 1000 0 1, 1,1 1,21 1,33 1,46 1 4 100 1100 1210 1331 1464 0 10%
5 -
Cng -
6,10 5 - 6105
5 0 1 2 3 4 5 - 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 0,90 9 909 0,82 6 826 0,75 1 751 0,68 3 683
Cng -
0,62 3,79 1 1 621 3791
u nhau l 1000 vi r=10%, thi gian n=5
3791 l gi tr hin ti ca dng tin
u nhau l 1000 vi r=10%, thi gian n=5 Gia chng c th c mi lin h no khng? Nu xem 6105 l mt dng ngn lu n s nhn trong tng lai sau 5 nm, vi sut chit khu 10%, gi tr hin ti s l: S dng cng thc (2): PV = 6105 ( 1+ 10%) 5 = 6105 1,610 = 6105 0,621 = 3791 (Trong , 0,621 l gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi thi gian l 5 nm v sut chit khu l 10%.) Nu xem 3791 l mt dng ngn lu n hin ti, gi tr tng lai sau 5 nm, vi li sut 10%, s l: S dng cng thc (1): FV = 3791 (1+10%)5 = 3791 1,610 = 6105 (Trong , 1,610 l gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi thi gian l 5 nm v li sut l 10%.) Hoc nhn cch khc, = 3791 0,621 = 6105 n y c l bn nhun nhuyn nh v k thut chit khu dng tin v bn hon ton c th t tin vo nhng ngy i thi v ng dng chng vo cc bi ton trong i thc.
1
2.6 Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u v tn T cng thc (4)

( 1+ r) n 1 PVA = A r(1+ r)n
Ta c th vit li PVA =
A 1 1 r ( 1+ r) n
Khi n ln, th
(0
V PVA s c vit n gin nh sau PVA = ; hoc r = ; hoc A = PVA ( r ( V d 2.6.1: Tnh PVA Nh nc c ch trng giao khon, bn, cho thu doanh nghip nh nc, tt nhin ang hot ng bnh thng, ch sp sp tim th bn cho ai. V nh l bn doanh nghip ang hot ng ch khng phi bn thanh l ti sn gii th doanh nghip, hai vic ny rt khc nhau. Cng ty quc doanh sn xut nc mm, phn mm, dch v du lch, xy dng cng trnh cng cng v kinh doanh bt ng sn, thng mi xut nhp khu, u t v t vn thit k Tnh B Holoco ku bn. Tn cng ty hi di phi khng. Khng sao. Kiu vy m, h xin thm c chc nng no th c vic b sung vo tn gi. Thi ta gi tt theo tn giao dch quc t l Holoco vy. D kin dng thu nhp hng nm tng i n nh ca Holoco l 20 triu, bn s mua doanh nghip ny vi gi no nu sut sinh li mong mun ca bn l 10% nm. Doanh nghip lun c gi nh l hot ng lin tc, khng thi hn, v vy gi tr ca n c th l: PVA = = = 200 triu
( V d 2.6.2: Tnh r Nhng ti ch tr gi Holoco khong 100 triu thi. V n gin l c hi sinh li cho ng tin ca ti l:
= 20% r = PV = 100 A
20
( V d 2.6.3: Tnh A Ngi bn ti, lm n kh khn do c ch chnh sch nng n Tnh T quyt nh chuyn vn v Tnh B tr gi Holoco 300 triu, trong khi sut sinh li i hi ca anh ta cng ch l 10%. Anh ta tnh ton v k vng thu nhp hng nm ca Holoco l bao nhiu? A = PVA ( r = 300 ( 10% = 30 triu. ( V d 2.6.4: Tnh A (tip theo) Cng ty kinh doanh v pht trin nh Qun Bnh Thnh c chnh sch bn nh tr gp cho ngi ngho, dnh u tin cho nhng c dn thnh ph th thit, c h khu t nm 1975 n nay vn cha c nh . Gi hin ti ca cn h l 100 triu, tr mi nm 2 ln trong vng 50 nm. Cng ty c Thnh ph cho vay v bo m c nh li vay l 8% nm (4% cho 6 thng). Theo bn, mi ln tr nn bao nhiu? Bn c th xem 50 nm (100 ln tr) l v tn, v bn c th ngh mi ln tr l: A = PVA r = 100 triu 4% = 4 triu Bn c th s dng cng thc (4), vi cc thnh phn: P = 100 triu ; n = 100 ln ; r = 4% Ta cng c: A = 4 triu. HNG DN TRN EXCEL (i) Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u (FVA) Vn trong fx/ financial/ FV nh hng dn trn y, dng s liu v d 2.3.1, tnh FVA nh sau
S dng hm FV ca dng tin u cng ging nh FV ca mt s tin n trn y, thm ch cn d hn. Thc ra hm FV sanh ra phc v cho vic ny, tc tnh gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u. (Trn kia, ta mn tnh s tin n). Trong bng c 3 gi tr cn khai bo ln lt: Rate: li sut (hay sut chit khu) Nper: S k on (thi gian) Pmt: S tin (tr) u Nh vy, nu s dng phm nng, bn ch cn nh: = FV(li sut, thi gian, s tin u)/OK. (ii) Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u (PVA) Vn trong fx/ financial/ PV nh hng dn, dng s liu v d 2.4.1, tnh PVA nh sau
Vn l hm PV s dng tnh s tin n, nhng by gi n gin hn = PV u)/OK. (sut chit khu, thi gian, s tin
(iii) Tnh s tin u (A) trong cng thc FVA Hm PMT (payment) trong fx/ financial. S dng s liu trong v d 2.3.2 trn y, ta tnh nh sau
Nu s dng phm nng, bn s nh (g): =PMT(li sut, s nm, ,gi tr tng lai)/OK. (lu 2 du phy sau s nm, tng ng vi bng tnh trn) (iv) Tnh s tin u (A) trong cng thc PVA Vn l hm PMT trn y nhng thao tc cn n gin hn nhiu. n gin l bi v hm PMT ra i dng cho mc ch ny, tc tnh A trong cng thc PVA. S dng v d 2.4.3 v mua tr gp, ta tnh trn Excel nh sau:
Nu s dng phm nng, bn s nh: =PMT(sut chit khu, s nm, gi tr hin ti)/OK. (khng cn 2 du phy nh trong cng thc FVA) (v) Tnh r trong cng thc FVA Hm RATE (li sut) trong loi hm financial (ti chnh), trong fx. S dng v d 2.3.4, tnh li sut cng ty Dudenxu.
Lu : Vi FV phi ghi m, tc phi nh thm du tr - khi khai bo, v Excel hiu l tr. Nu s dng phm nng (phm tt), ta nh: =Rate (S k, S tin u, ,Gi tr tng lai) (nh cch 2 du phy , sau S tin u. (vi) Tnh r trong cng thc PVA Dng s liu trong v d 2.4.2, mua xe BadDream III tr gp ta s dng hm Rate trong Excel nh sau:
Hm Rate trong gi tr hin ti n gin hn trong gi tr tng lai, ch cn khai bo lin tc (khng cch hai du phy). = Rate (S k tr, -S tin tr u, Gi tr hin ti)/OK. (Nh nh du tr - trc pmt, v Excel hiu l tr.) Ch cn tnh cho ca hng Gia Long, copy sang cho ca hng Hng Vng.
(vii) Tnh n trong cng thc FVA S dng hm Nper trn Excel: Excel/ fx/ financial/ Nper2 =Nper(li sut,s tin u, ,gi tr tng lai) Lu : cch 2 du phy sau s tin u; s tin u Excel hiu l tr , nn phi c ghi m (<0). Dng v d 2.3.3 tnh n trn Excel nh sau:
Nper: number of period: so ky oan.
Kt qu: n = 17,5. (viii) Tnh n trong cng thc PVA S dng hm Nper trn Excel: Excel/ fx/ financial/ Nper =Nper(sut chit khu,s tin u,gi tr hin ti) Lu : cc gi tr khai bo lin nhau, khng cn cch 2 du phy sau s tin u nh trong cng thc gi tr tng lai trn y; s tin u Excel hiu l tr , nn phi c ghi m (nh du tr - trc Pmt). Dng v d 2.4.4 tnh n trn Excel nh sau:
Kt qu: n = 45 thng Nu li sut 12% nm (tc 1% thng) th thi gian tr lng l:
Bn ch cn a chut vo B1 v nh 12%, s thng s thay i thnh 51 thng nh trn.
Li tha vui cng bn,
Qua hn 40 trang vt ln vi nhng con s, cng thc cng cc cng c trn bng tnh Excel, bn thy rng k thut chit khu dng tin khng qu kh nh bn tng ngh. V c bit, nhng thao tc trn Excel cng tht l d dng. Nu gi nh bn cha tng ng n cc hm ti chnh (financial) nh vy bao gi th li khuyn l: khng cn phi b thi gian n lp, m hy ngi quy vi my tnh ca bn mt ngy (hoc vi ngy, hoc lu hn, v c th s b bnh ghin), tt c ri s thnh thc. l cch m tc gi nhng dng ny tng lm. Yan can cook th cc bn cng c th nu c! C phi chinh chin, kh au nhiu cuc i thm phong sng, dy dn.
III. Cc ch tiu dng nh gi d n Ch tiu ni chung l nhng thc o, dng nh gi mt hin trng no , l cng c phn tch nh lng. Cng nh phn tch hiu qu s dng vn cn phi tnh s vng quay vn, nh gi (thm nh) mt d n u t ngi ta cng phi dng n cc ch tiu c th. Mi ch tiu u hu ch, u gip ta nhng gc nhn khc nhau v hiu qu d n . Ni cch khc, c th s dng tt c cc ch tiu vo trong cng mt d n. Tuy nhin, trong mt s trng hp phi so snh cc d n c tnh loi tr nhau (thc hin d n ny th b qua d n kia), gia cc ch tiu s c nhng mu thun, thm ch tri ngc nhau. Mt s trng hp khc, c nhng ch tiu khng th no p dng c. 3.1 Gi tr hin ti rng Gi tr hin ti rng c dch t nhm ch Net Present Value, vit tt l NPV, c ngha l hiu s gia gi tr hin ti ca cc dng thu v gi tr hin ti ca cc dng chi d kin ca mt d n u t. NPV l mt ch tiu ph bin,
n mc n tr thnh mt trong cc nguyn tc nh gi d n.
3.1.1 ngha v cng thc tnh NPV Theo nh ngha trn: NPV = Gi tr hin ti dng thu - Gi tr hin ti dng chi Cng thc tm tt NPV: NPV = PV (dng thu) - PV (dng chi) V mt tnh ton, tt c cc dng tin (thu hay chi) u c a v cng mt thi im hin ti thng qua mt sut chit khu (nhm t gi tr dng tin tng ng), tin hnh so snh. Nu NPV>0 c ngha l dng tin thu vo ln hn dng tin chi ra; v ngc li, NPV<0 c ngha l dng tin chi ra nhiu hn l thu v. Nh vy, ngha ca NPV>0 l s giu c hn ln, ti sn ca nh u t s n ln hn sau khi thc hin d n. C th nhng ch tiu khc (sau y) cng l nhng thc o gi tr d n, ng di cc gc nhn khc nhau. Tuy nhin, khng mt nh u t no, k c cc d n ca chnh ph , m li khng quan tm n s giu c hn ln ny. Chnh v l do , ch tiu NPV c xem l ch tiu mnh nht dng nh gi cc d n u t. Nu bn thch th hin tr tu hn, tc ngi c phi nhc c u, thm ch kh hiu, khi ngh ti NPV th bn vit nh sau : NPV =
( 1+ r)
i=0
( Bi Ci )
i
Hoc c th vit cho gn hn:
NPV = Trong , i: r: n: PV : Bi : Ci : (Bi Ci) :
PV ( B C )
i= 0 i i
k hiu cc nm ca d n (lu : cui nm 0 bng u nm 1) sut chit khu s nm (hay s k) ca d n gi tr hin ti (thi im nm 0) dng thu (ngn lu vo) ca nm th i dng chi (ngn lu ra) ca nm th i dng rng (ngn lu rng) ca nm th i gi tr hin ti rng ca nm th i
PV (Bi Ci) :
i= 0
tong cong cac gia tr hien tai (t i en n)
Din ngha cng thc ny ra ting B Ngoi th vn l: hiu s gia gi tr hin ti ca cc dng thu v gi tr hin ti ca cc dng chi d kin ca mt d n u t. Mt ln na, cng thc ch l hnh thc tm tt cc tng, mt khi bn nm k phn hn bn c th d dng t vit ra cc cng thc theo bt c hnh thc no, vi nhng k hiu no, m bn thch. ( V d 3.1.1: Tnh NPV ca d n Bn mun u t mt ca hng photocopy trc cng trng i hc ca bn v t tn n l i Sinh Vin. D kin d n s cho dng ngn lu rng (NCF: net cash flows) vo cui cc nm nh bng sau (n v tin). Trong , NCF l hiu s ca dng thu v dng chi. Ti mt nm no , NCF<0 c ngha l dng chi ln hn dng thu; ngc li, NCF>0 c ngha l dng thu ln hn dng chi . Gi nh rng, my mc thit b sau 5 nm khng cn gi tr tn dng (nu d kin c gi tr tn dng th n s tr thnh mt dng thu t vic thanh l ti sn vo nm cui
d n, tc nm th 5); v sut sinh li i hi cho ng vn hin ti ca bn l 20% nm (nh hn bn khng lm, v bn cn c c hi u t khc cng ha hn sinh li 20%). ng lo lng cc tnh ton m trc ht cn xc nh cc tng chnh cho bi ton ny. Th nht, chi ph c hi s dng vn ca bn l 20% s chnh l sut chit khu (r = 20%) ca d n.
-
S tin rng (hiu s ca dng thu v dng chi) ghi trong cc nm 1, 2, , c ngha l trong tng lai 1, 2, nm na, bn mi thu c. Trong khi , dng tin rng 10.000 th phi chi ra by gi (cui nm 0 hay u nm 1) Bn s a cc dng tin rng d kin thu c trong tng lai v gi tr hin ti (cng vi thi im dng chi, tc nm 0) thng qua sut chit khu r=20%. Cui cng, hiu s gia chng, tc NPV s tr li cho bn cu hi v hiu qu d n. Kt qu: NPV = 684>0 Sut chit khu Nm 0 20% 1 2 3 4 5 1,000
NCF (10,000) 5,000 4,500 3,500 2,000 NPV 684 C t nht l hai cch bn tnh c NPV = 684.
Cch 1: Tnh gi tr hin ti tng dng tin (cng thc 1) ri cng li, nh sau: Gi tr hin ti cc dng thu: S dng cng thc (1) vi r = 20%, n ln lt l 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, ta tnh c cc gi tr hin ti ca cc dng thu nh sau. PV1 = 5000
1 = 5000 0,833 = 4.166 (1+ 20%)1
Trong , 0,833 l gi tr hin ti ca mt ng vi thi gian l 1 nm v r = 20%. (Xem ph lc v bng h s tin t cui sch) Tng t, PV2 = 4500
1 = 4500 0,694 = 3.124 (1+ 20%)2
PV3 = 3500 0,579 = 2.027 PV4 = 2000 0,482 = 964 PV5 = 1000 0,402 = 402 Cng PV1 n PV5 = 10.684 (lm trn s): tng gi tr hin ti cc dng thu. Gi tr hin ti cc dng chi: PV0 = 10.000
1 = 10.000 1 = 10.000 (1+ 20%)0
(S tin 10.000 chi vo thi im tnh gi tr hin ti, khng c khong cch thi gian, n=0. V (1+20%)0 = 1) Gi tr hin ti rng (NPV): NPV = 10.684 10.000 = 684 (n v tin) Cch 2: S dng hm NPV trn Excel (hng dn cui mc ny). 3.1.2 Nhng sai lm thng gp khi s dng NPV (i) Dng ngn lu v li nhun Ta ch c th ngn gn m ni rng, NPV l gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin ch khng phi l li nhun. V li nhun khng phi l dng tin (ngn lu). Rng c li nhng khng c tin tip tc hot ng v vn phi ph sn C l tt nht l bn nn dnh cht thi gian qu bu ca bn xem nhng vn tng t Chng 13 Bo co ngn lu. (ii) Gi tr hin ti ca dng chi v tng vn u t
Nu ta vit: NPN = PV (dng thu) - Tng vn u t, l hon ton khng chnh xc, thm ch l sai v nguyn l . V sao? Gi nh d n ca hng photocopy trong v d 3.1.1 trn y c chia lm 2 ln u t: cui nm 0 (u nm 1) u t 7000; v cui nm 1 (u nm 2) u t 3000 th kt qu nh gi d n cho bi ch tiu NPV s hon ton khc. C hai cch bn ngh (v tnh) v kt qu mi ny. Th nht, mt cch ngn gn, s tin 3000 n mt nm sau mi chi, gi tr hin ti ca n ch l: PV1 = 3000
1 = 3000 0,833 = 2499 (1+ 20%)1
C th ni cch khc, hin ti ch cn chi ra 2499 gi vo ngn hng (gi nh cng li sut 20% nm) th mt nm sau, tc n lc cn chi u t cng s nhn c 3000. Nh vy, gi tr hin ti ca dng chi ch l: 7000 + 2499 = 9499 S tin u t s tit kim c 501 (= 10000 - 9499). NPV gi y s l: 10684 - 9499 = 1185 NPV tng ln mt gi tr bng vi s tit kim c, tc 501 (=1185 - 684) Th hai, mt cch chuyn nghip hn, ta lp li bo co ngn lu ca d n v tnh NPV cho dng ngn lu rng (NCF) mi nh sau: Sut chit khu 20%
Nm NCF NPV
0 (7,000) 1185
1 2,000
2 4,500
3 3,500
4 2,000
5 1,000
Nhn xt: - Ngn lu rng cui nm 0 (u nm 1) ch l: - 7000 - Ngn lu rng cui nm 1 (u nm 2) ch l: 2000 (=5000 - 3000) (iii) Sut chit khu - mt vn nan gii Gi nh dng ngn lu c xc nh , mt s thay i trong sut chit khu s l thay i NPV. Tr li v d 3.1.1 ca d n ca hng photocopy i Sinh Vin trn y, gi nh mt nh u t khc cho rng chi ph c hi s dng vn ca anh (hay c) ta l 30%. Vi dng ngn lu rng gi nh ging ht nhau, kt lun v hiu qu d n s ra sao? NPV= -928<0 Sut chit khu Nm NCF NPV 0 (10,000) (928) 30% 1 5,000 2 4,500 3 3,500 4 2,000 5 1,000
Bn c thy rng cng mt d n, cng d liu, ch khc nhau sut chit khu s dn n kt qu NPV khc nhau. Trc khi bn lao vo nghin cu nhng vn hc ba nh vy, qua v d nh ny ti ch mun bn nhn ra mt chn l n gin rng: mt d n tt cho bn (hay cng ty ca bn) th khng hn l tt cho tt c mi ngi. V v th, khng c mt sut chit khu no c th dng chung cho tt c . T , bn c th suy ngh n nhng kha cnh rng ln hn: ti sao mt cng ty nc ngoi u t vo ngnh
may mc Vit Nam chng hn, li i hi mt sut sinh li 20%, trong khi sut sinh li bnh qun ngnh ny chnh quc ch l 6%? Ti sao sut sinh li i hi cc d n u t trc tip li cao hn u t gin tip, ngnh cu ng li cao hn ngnh ch bin thc phm Phm vi c hn ca quyn sch ny khng i su tho lun v vn chi ph s dng vn, tuy nhin bn hy tin rng y l mt ti vn (v s) cn rng m lu di cho con ng nghin cu khoa hc ca bn, nu bn quyt nh dn thn. V hy lun nh rng, khng c bt k mt kha hc no hay mt gio s lng danh no c th tr li ngay cu hi: sut chit khu ca mt d n c th no m bn sp thc hin nn l bao nhiu?. Trn th gii c hn nhng quyn sch ch dnh tho lun v chi ph s dng vn , ngay c chng ny cng c mt tit mc cp n sut chit khu, tuy nhin cng ch l nhng tng nhm hng bn n nhng tnh ton c th cho ring mnh m thi. Nhng nu bn c p ti phi a ra mt li khuyn chung chung (ging nh bc s no cng khuyn ti nn b thuc l, c ph, bia ru vy. Ni th th ai m chng lm bc s c ) th nhng l:
-
Hy tin chnh mnh trc . Nu bn (hoc cng ty bn) v ang (hoc cm thy c th c c hi) to ra mt sut sinh li hng nm l 15% th chnh l sut chit khu ca d n bn sp thc hin. Nhng d n phi cng ngnh vi bn ang hot ng. Chng th no ang kinh doanh vng bc c li sut 10% lp d n sn xut mui cng i hi ch i hi 10%, trong khi ngnh ny c sut sinh li bnh qun 30%. Vic xc nh sai sut chit khu s bp mo NPV v s dn n hai loi sai lm, thy u nghim trng: Sai lm loi I: chuc ly nhng d n ti, do nh gi NPV qu cao, b l v ph sn.
Sai lm loi II: b qua nhng d n tt, do nh gi NPV qu thp, mt c hi kim li. Trong hai sai lm trn, sai lm loi II thng kh nhn din hn mc d c khi l nhng sai lm tai hi khng khip. - Nu bit c sut sinh li bnh qun ngnh th l c s, c th cng thm vi phn trm li th hoc ri ro, nu cm nhn hoc d tnh c. - Tham kho sut sinh li bnh qun ngnh cc nc ln cn, c cng c im, trnh kinh t. - Cc d n cng loi ca nc ngoi u t Vit Nam, c iu chnh t l ri ro quc gia. V tic thay! Mt ch tiu mnh m v thuyt phc nht li cha ng mt nhc im trm kha nht, l vn sut chit khu. Cng c th nhn di gc cnh khc, ch tiu chnh xc nht v ng tin cy nht li thng l nhng ch tiu kh nut nht . Bn v sut chit khu Bn thy y, chng ta lun c chic hp m th gin. Ln ny chng ta tho lun v sut chit khu ca cc d n cng (public project), v d l mt d n cu ng c thu ph, chng hn. Mc ch ca cc nh u t l li nhun, l s giu c hn ln sau khi thc hin d n. V v vy, ch tiu NPV vn c s dng thm nh d n. NPV ca d n cu ng cng l thuc vo cc yu t nh bao d n khc m chng ta nghin cu. l: dng chi, dng thu, thi gian v sut chit khu. Dng chi c xc nh do thit k, quy m, kt cu (gi nh l chnh xc); Dng thu c xc nh do biu gi (thu ph) quy nh. Cu hi cn li l: cn phi nh
u t khai thc thu ph bao nhiu nm t c mt sut sinh li mong mun l r% no . n y th bn hiu, thi gian lc ny ch cn l thuc vo sut chit khu r. Vic xc nh sai lnh trong r s dn n sai lnh nhiu nm cho quyn khai thc ca nh u t. Nu mi ngy, mt d n cu ng no thu ph c 100 triu ng chng hn, trong 5 nm t nc chng ta s chy mu bit bao nhiu? Ai l ngi chu trch nhim thm nh canh ca cc d n loi ny? Hi, tc l tr li. Ni th gin tiu su m li cng su thm.
3.2 Sut sinh li ni b Sut sinh li ni b c dch t nhm ch Internal Rate of Return, vit tt l IRR. l mt sut chit khu m ti , lm cho NPV = 0. IRR cng l mt ch tiu ph bin, ch sau NPV, thng i lin v c mi quan h vi NPV. 3.2.1 ngha v cng thc tnh IRR chnh l kh nng sinh li ch thc ca bn thn d n. IRR ch thay i khi cc yu t ni ti, tc gi tr cc dng ngn lu thay i. Khi thy NPV=0 bn thng ngh rng d n khng mang li hiu qu no. Nhng bn nh rng, ngay c khi NPV=0 cng c ngha l d n mang li cho ng vn ca bn mt sut sinh li, chnh l IRR. Nh vy nu bn mong mun mt sut sinh li t d n l r = 20%, trong khi IRR = 24% (>20%) chng hn, th bn tha mn v c th quyt nh u t. Theo nh ngha trn y, IRR l mt sut chit khu m ti NPV=0, nh vy nu ta chn sut chit khu
r=20% s lm cho NPV>0 (v r<IRR). C th ni khc i, khi NPV>0 th IRR>r. Nh vy, hai iu kin ny cng c tha. By gi, gi nh bn mong mun mt sut sinh li t d n l r = 30%, trong khi IRR vn l 24% (<30%) chng hn, th bn khng hi lng v c th quyt nh khng u t . Tng t trn, IRR = 24% l sut chit khu lm cho NPV=0 th sut chit khu r = 30% s lm cho NPV<0. Nh vy, hai iu kin ny cng khng tha. Hai ch tiu ny c v l cp tin o bi trng y. H ci ny gt th ci kia OK v ngc li, cng lc . Nhng gt hay lc th da vo g? Cng li l mt sut sinh li mong mun no . Mt nhn xt khc c t ra. Nh vy th ch cn mt ch tiu l ? Hy hi sau phn gii. Chng ta s tho lun ngay bn di y v cc nhc im ca IRR, tuy nhin trc ht cn lu rng cp ch tiu ny ch thng nht trong tng d n (bnh thng), chng s khng cn gii thch c cho nhau khi so snh 2 d n khc nhau v thi im bt u, quy m v vng i d n. Cng thc! chng cn cng thc no c, ch cn cho NPV=0, gii phng trnh tm r, chnh l IRR. Hoc cho i mt r bt k tm NPV, nu NPV cha bng 0, tip tc thay r v m mm cho n khi no c th thi! Nhng nu c lm ra v phc tp, bn c th gom cc tng vo cch vit bng cc k hiu cho n oai: IRR = r NPV =
*
i=0
( Bi Ci )
( 1+ r )
* i
=0
V d: Mt d n c vng i 1 nm, dng ngn lu rng u nm 1 (cui nm 0) l: - 1000; cui nm th 1 l: 1200 (n v tin) th IRR l bao nhiu?
NPV = (1+ r)1 1+ r 0 =0 ( ) Vy, Suy ra, 1 + r = 1,2; V r = 0,2 hay 20%. IRR = 20% Tt nhin v d n gin ny ch nhm cung cp tng v IRR. Nu d n c vng i 2 nm, 3 nm, th bn hnh dung cn phi gii phng trnh bc 2, bc 3 V cng hy hi sau phn gii. By gi th hy quan tm n th IRR di y. 3.2.2 ng dng IRR trong u thu tri phiu Bn c bo thy cuc u thu tri phiu chnh ph tht bi, tc ngi mua hay ngi cho vay (l cc ngn hng u t) v ngi bn hay ngi i vay (i din l B ti chnh) khng gp nhau. B ti chnh i gi 92000 ng, cc ngn hng tr gi (cao nht) ch l 85000 ng. Bit rng tri phiu c mnh gi 100.000 (ng), li sut tri phiu c nh 8% nm (c tc tr c nh mi nm: 8000 ng, nm cui cng tr li v vn gc: 108.000 ng), thi gian o hn 5 nm. Tt nhin b ti chnh l ngi i vay nn mun li sut thp v cc ngn hng, l ngi cho vay nn mun li sut cao. Nhng cc li sut l bao nhiu? B Ti chnh mun li sut l 10% nn gi gi 92000. Nm NCF IRR 0 (92,000) 10% 1 8,000 2 8,000 3 8,000 4 8,000 5 108,00 0
1200
1000
Cc ngn hng mun li sut l 12% nn tr gi 85000. Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5
NCF IRR
(85,000) 12%
8,000
8,000
8,000
8,000
108,00 0
Tng t nh vy, nu bn l i din ca ngn hng NCB i u thu. Ra i xp c dn rng: c th xung ti 11,5% th rng, thp hn th v, bn s tr gi cao nht cho l tri phiu l bao nhiu? Nm NCF IRR 0 (87,202) 11,5% 1 8,000 2 8,000 3 8,000 4 8,000 5 108,00 0
Chc hn l bn cn nh hm i tm kt qu Goal Seek nghin cu t u hm. Xem li cht nh!
Ch cn vic bm nt OK, mt ci nt d nht, to nht v bm sng tay nht , cha 12% s thnh 11.5%, cn cha gi tr (85,000) s tr thnh gi tr m bn ch i: (87,202).
3.2.3 th quan h gia NPV v IRR
Bn lm g, thy g, hc g v tnh g qua th ny? Cn ti th nh rng bn tng v nhng th tng t nh vy cc chng trc (t nht l trong cc chng 2, 5, 6). Lm: Th nht, bn to hai ct IRR v NPV nh hnh trn. IRR th bn t nh vo theo mun, chng hn nh 10% v 12% ri bi en, copy xung 30% (khong cch u nhau l 2%). Cn NPV? i nhiu qu lm sao tnh ni! Khng sao! Bn ch cn tnh mt gi tr NPV thi, ri copy xung, mun hng trm NPV th Excel cng cho bn trong ci chp mt. Bn c thy ti cho hin cc cng thc ln khng? Khi khai bo hm NPV, bn sut chit khu t do ( A6), cn cc khai bo cho gi tr cc dng tin th tri li (bm mt ln F4, cn nh hay qun!)/ OK. NPV tng ng vi
r=10% s hin ra B6. R chut nh nhng xung gc di bn phi B6, khi thy xut hin ti y du ch thp mu en, nhp double click (nhp p, tc 2 ln chut, tt nhin l chut tri), ct NPV s mt ci xt xung nh hnh trn. Th hai, bi en hai ct (k c tn - label), vo biu tng v th v thao tc ging nh cc chng trc. Thy: Trong 2 ct s, c cp rt quen. r=20% v NPV=684, l kt qu ca v d d n ca hng photocopy trn y m. Tc gi li, nn vn ly v d c thi. Khi r qua khi 22%, n gn 24% th NPV bt u m. Nhn sang th, thy ng NPV ct trc honh r ti 24%, v lc ny NPV=0 (nhn v trc tung NPV). r = 24% = IRR. (Xem hng dn tnh IRR ca d n ca hng photocopy trn Excel cui mc ny, thy IRR = 24%) Hc: Bt c im no bn chn trn ng NPV phn bn trn trc honh, tc phn NPV > 0, t chiu xung trc honh gp mt gi tr r < IRR. Hoc pht biu cho thun cu hn: Khi NPV > 0 th IRR > r Tng t, bt c im no bn chn trn ng NPV phn bn di trc honh, tc phn NPV<0, t chiu xung trc honh gp mt gi tr r >IRR. Hoc c th pht biu cho thun cu: Khi NPV< 0 th IRR< r Tnh: ( Gii phng trnh ng thng dng y=a+bx=0 tm IRR. Nu bn chn mt r no , chng hn r=20%, tng ng vi NPV=684; V bn chn mt r khc, chng hn
r=30%, tng ng vi NPV=-928. Nh vy, bn c hai to ca hai im. Qua bn c th vit phng trnh ng thng theo cng thc:
y y1 x x1 = y2 y1 x2 x1
Thay cc gi tr x1, x2, y1, y2 vo v a v dng phng trnh y=a+bx, cho bng 0 tm x, tc IRR. Nu qun, bn c th xem li chng 3 cc phng php k thut s dng trong phn tch. ( p dng ng thc tam gic ng dng tnh IRR. T cc im chn trn y, bn s lp c ng thc tam gic ng dng v tm c IRR. Cng c th gi l phng php ni suy, theo cng thc sau:
1 IRR = r1 + (r2 - r2) NPV + NPV 1 2
NPV
Trong , (r2 r1)>0 ( r2 > r1 Dng v d d n Ca hng photocopy i Sinh Vin tnh IRR trn y ta kim nghim li cng thc: r1 = 20% NPV1 = 684 r2 = 30% NPV2 = -928 Theo cng thc ta c: IRR = 20% + (30% - 20%) 3.2.4 Nhng nhc im ca IRR Trong mt s trng hp d n c nhng dng ngn lu bt ng, IRR khng th tnh c. V d: C mt d n khai thc m, u nm 1 (cui nm 0) chi ra 1200, cui nm 1 thu v 5000. Nm 2 v nm 3
684 = 24% 684 + 928
sau phi chi tin san lp, tr li mt bng c cho nh nc. Bo co ngn lu ca d n, c th nh sau:
Vi sut chit khu 10%, y l d n rt c hiu qu (NPV=1437), tuy nhin IRR l bao nhiu? Hay ni cch khc, vi sut chit khu no s lm cho NPV=0? Tt nhin khng th tnh c. Nhc im khc, trong trng hp so snh la chn d n c tnh loi tr nhau, kt qu IRR thng khng th dn n kt lun hoc c kt lun sai lch. V d: C dng ngn lu ca 2 d n A v B nh sau: Nm D n A D n B 0 (1,000) (10,000) 1 1,400 14,000 IRRA = IRRB = 40% 40%
Gi nh ngun lc khng hn ch, nu ch dng ch tiu n c IRR nh gi, ta thy c hai d n u nh nhau, u c IRR l 40%. V bn khng th kt lun d n no tt hn. (Nu bn ni d n B c v li nhiu hn, tc l bn s dng mt ch tiu khc ri!)
By gi ta thay i mt cht trong dng ngn lu ca d n B v cho sut chit khu l 10% (tt nhin cho c 2 d n). Tnh NPV? Sut chit khu Nm D n A D n B 0 (1,000) (10,000) 10% 1 1,400 13,000 IRRA = IRRB = 40% 30% NPVA= 273
NPVB= 1,81 8
Chng l no bn li chn A do c IRR cao hn B (40%>30%), trong khi B lm cho bn giu c hn ln rt nhiu so vi A (1818>273)! Nh nu trn y, hai d n c thi im bt u khc nhau, ch tiu IRR khng th phn bit c d n no hiu qu. V d: Xt IRR v NPV ca 2 d n di y. Sut chit khu Nm 0 (10,000 D n A ) D n B 20% 1 12,500 (10,000 ) 12,500 2 3 NPV 417 289 IRR 25% 25%
Hai d n u c IRR=25%, trong khi NPVA>NPVB rt nhiu (417>289). Tng t, khng th s dng IRR so snh hai d n c cng thi im bt u nhng vng i khc nhau. V d: Sut chit khu Nm 0 (10,000 D n A ) D n B (10,000 20% 1 12,500 2 3 NPV 417 706 IRR 25% 23%
18,500
) IRRA>IRRB (417<706) (25%>23%), tuy nhin NPVA<NPVB
3.3 T s li ch v chi ph T s li ch v chi ph c dch t nhm ch Benefit -Cost Ratio, c th vit tt l BCR hay B/C. l mt t l gia gi tr hin ti dng thu so vi gi tr hin ti dng chi. Ch tiu ny cng ph bin, i sau NPV v IRR, c mi lin h vi NPV. C th ni BCR l mt cch nhn khc v NPV. 3.3.1 ngha v cng thc BCR L mt ch tiu o lng hiu qu ca d n bng hnh nh t l gia li ch thu v so vi chi ph b ra. Nu ch tiu NPV ch ni ln s giu c hn ln mt gi tr ti sn nhng n khng so snh vi quy m ngun lc, th ch tiu BCR cho thy hiu qu ny. BCR l t s so snh gia gi tr hin ti dng thu v gi tr hin ti dng chi (trong khi , NPV l so snh hiu s). Cng thc: BCR = Gia hie tai dog chi tr n n
Gia hie ta dog thu tr n i n
Theo v d d n photocopy i Sinh Vin, BCR l: BCR =

10684 = 1,07 10000
3.3.2 Cc nhc im ca BCR Qua cng thc NPV v BCR ta thy chng c mi quan h gii thch cho nhau. C th: NPV > 0 BCR > 1;
Ngc li
NPV < 0 ( BCR < 1.
Tuy nhin, khi so snh cc d n c tnh loi tr nhau, mt mnh ch tiu BCR i khi bp mo kt qu nh gi. V d: Sut chit khu Nm D n A D n B 20% 0 (6,000) (10,000) 1 9,000 14,000 NPV 1,500 1,667 BCR 1.25 1.17
D n A c BCR ln hn (1.25>1.17), tuy nhin d n B li mang li ca ci rng ln hn (1667>1500). Mt nhc im khc na l, vic xc nh chi ph ca d n khng thng nht cng c th lm sai lch ch tiu ny. C quan im cho rng chi ph so snh trong cng thc ny ch nn tnh theo chi ph u t ban u (investment cost); trong khi , quan im khc th tnh trn ton b chi ph (total cost). 3.4 K hon vn tnh trn ngn lu Hiu t ch Payback Period (PP), l thi gian cn thit thu hi c vn u t. Nhiu d n khan him hoc l thuc vo thi gian huy ng vn, ch tiu ny thng t ra hu dng. n gin, nhn dng ngn lu rng (NCF: net cash flows) trn bo co ngn lu ca d n thy c nm hon vn. K hon vn cng c th tnh trn dng ngn lu chit khu (DCF: discounted cash flows), tc c tnh n gi tr thi gian ca tin t. Tuy nhin qua nhiu th nghim ta thy khng c chnh lnh nhiu so vi cch tnh ch da trn dng ngn lu .
3.5 Sut sinh li k ton c dch t nhm t Accounting Rate of Return (ARR), l t l gia dng thu bnh qun hng nm so vi tng dng chi (hoc bnh qun). Cng thc: ARR =
Nga lu va bnh qua n o n Tog nga lu ra n n
Theo v d d n Ca hng Photocopy i Sinh Vin, ARR l: ARR =

(5000 + 4500 + 3500 + 2000 + 1000)/5 = 32% 10000
Ch tiu ARR cng gip ta mt cch nhn v hiu qu d n, tuy nhin n cng c cc nhc im tng t: khng tnh thi gi tin t v khng quan tm quy m cng nh vng i ca d n. Ch tiu ARR i khi cng c tnh n gin bng cch da trn li nhun bnh qun nh ROI di y. 3.6 Sut sinh li ca vn u t c hiu t ch Return on Investment (ROI), l mt ch tiu n gin n v cng, ch tnh trn li nhun v khng da vo dng ngn lu. Cng thc: ROI =
L nhua bnh qua hag na i n n n m Vo a t n u
Ngoi nhc im phi tin t nh nu, vn u t trong ch tiu ROI c tnh rt ty tin: c khi tnh trn tng vn u t, c khi tnh trn vn u t bnh qun (c tr khu hao vn qua tng nm). Lu rng, nu li nhun thng nht vi dng ngn lu, mc d him khi, th ROI s bng vi ARR trn y.
V d: D n X c vn u t 100 triu, li nhun bnh qun hng nm l 20 triu th ROI s l: ROI =

20 = 20% 100
3.7 K hon vn tnh trn li nhun L mt cch nhn khc v ROI, c vit ngc li vi ROI nh sau: PPNI 3 =
Vo a t n u L nhua bnh qua hag na i n n n m
Theo v d trn: PPNI =

100 = 5 (na ) m 20
3.8 Cch nhn khc v NPV v IRR Thc ra mc ny nhm din gii thm, lm cho ch tiu vua NPV d hiu hn m thi. Mc khc, trong s kt hp vi NPV cng lm r thm bn cht ca IRR. Ch tiu gi tr hin ti rng NPV nh chng ta nghin cu v nhn thy l mt ch tiu mnh m, ng tin cy, gii thch s giu c hn ln cho ch u t sau khi thc hin mt d n kinh doanh. Nhng ch tiu ny, ngoi nhc im l vic xc nh sut chit khu ph hp, cn mt khuyt im hm oan na l: kh hiu. Sau y l mt ngh v cch tip cn vi ch tiu ny. V d: C dng ngn lu t mt d n nh sau Nm 0 NCF -500 Sut chit khu: 10% Bng kt qu thm nh: NPV = 254
3
1 300
2 400
3 200
Ky hieu NI (Net Income: lai rong) e phan biet vi PP tnh tren dong ngan lu.
IRR = 39% ( Vn 1: Gii thch ch tiu NPV v IRR bng hnh nh li sut Gi P = 500 l vn u t Nu gi vo ngn hng gi nh vi li sut r = 39% nm, sau 3 nm ta c s tin: FC = 500 (1 + 39%)3 = 1330 Nu u t d n v to ra cc dng thu, gi tr ca dng thu ny sau 3 nm cng l: 1330 FB = 300 (1+39%)2 + 400 (1+39%)1 + 200 (1+39%)0 FB = 576 + 554 + 200 FB = 1330 Nh vy, ta c th hiu IRR nh l mt sut sinh li ha vn, v u t cho d n hay gi ngn hng u nh nhau. Nhng lu rng sut sinh li 39% ch c thng qua u t, khng th c mt li sut tin gi cao nh vy c. ( Vn 2: Gii thch ch tiu NPV v IRR bng hnh nh gi tr tng lai
By gi ta cng tnh F n nm th 3 tuy nhin ch vi li sut 10%, l sut sinh li mong mun. Ta c: FB = 300 (1+10%)2 + 400 (1+10%)1 + 200 (1+10%)0 = 363 + 440 + 200 = 1003 Gi tr tng lai n nm th 3 ca vn u t P= 500 (cng vi r=10%) l: FC = 500 (1+10%)3 = 665,5 Nu ta gi chnh lch gi tr tng lai ca dng thu (FB) v gi tr tng lai ca dng chi (FC) bng mt tn gi l NFV (Net future value: gi tr tng lai rng), ta c: NFV = 1003 665,5 = 337, 5
T ta thy rng li ch trong tng lai s ln hn nu u t vo d n thay v gi ngn hng (hay dnh cho cc hot ng khc trong hin ti) vi li sut 10%. Nu a NFV = 337,5 v gi tr hin ti NPV (r = 10%) ta cng s c NPV = 254, thng nht vi gi tr NPV bng kt qu thm nh trn y. ( Vn 3: Mt cch nhn khc v sut sinh li ni b IRR
Trong khi tnh IRR, ta xem nh l mt sut sinh li ca cc dng u t v ti u t ca d n. Nhng li sut thc t l s g? Theo tnh ton trn, gi tr tng lai ca cc dng thu (r=10%) l: 1003. Bn hy t cu hi rng, gi tr vn u t P = 500 tr thnh F = 1003, li sut r cn c l bao nhiu? Ta c th vit: 500 (1+r)3 = 1003 (1+r)3 = 1003 500 = 2,006 Suy ra: (1+r) = 3 2,006 = 1,26 r = 0,26 hay 26% Ngi ta cn gi r = 26% l Sut sinh li ni b hiu chnh. 3.9 Bng tm tt kt qu tnh ton ca cc ch tiu Kt qu cc ch tiu ca d n Ca hng Photocopy i Sinh Vin nh sau: Sut chit khu 20% Nm 0 1 2 NCF (10,000) 5,000 4,500 NPV 684 (n v tin) IRR 24% 3 3,500 4 2,000 5 1,000
B/C PP ARR
1.07 2 32%
(ln) (nm)
3.10 Bng tm tt u khuyt im ca cc ch tiu Ch tiu u im Khuyt im - Kh hiu - Kh tm sut chit khu, tc rt kh xc nh chi ph s dng vn.
Tnh gi tr tin t NPV theo thi gian, tnh Gi tr n quy m d n, hin ti rng p ng yu cu giu c hn ln, ti a ho ngun ca ci. L ch tiu mnh m, thuyt phc. - C tnh trn dng IRR ngn lu, tc thng tin Sut sinh li ni b t d n. ni b - D tnh, d hiu (th hin l phn trm)
- C tnh n gi tr BCR (B/C) tin t theo thi gian T s Li ch - H tr gii thch cho & Chi ph NPV - Thy c hiu qu ng vn PPCF - c s dng nhiu do K hon vn d hiu, d tnh ton tnh trn - Hu ch vi cc d n dng ngn l- c ri ro cao u
- C lc khng tnh c do dng ngn lu thay i bt thng - D dn n kt lun sai lm khi so snh cc d n c tnh loi tr nhau - Khng tnh n quy m, thi im d n - C nhiu cch xc nh chi ph, dn n kt lun sai - Khng xt quy m v vng i d n - Khng quan tm n sut sinh li - C th mu thun vi NPV khi so snh d n loi tr nhau.

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Nht Bn Hoa K Singapore Thailand

9.640 26.980 26.730 2.740

4,48 4,09 4,08 1,81

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Bn hy m Excel ra, np cc gi tr li sut nh mun nh sau:

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d dng thy c trong ,

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Gi xe hin ti Tr ngay Tr chm Mi ln tr S ln tr Thi gian tr Li sut (2 thng) Li sut (1

n v USD USD USD ln thng

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Li sut nm Vay n (u nm 1) Nm N u k Li pht sinh Tr u, trong : - N gc - Li vay N cui k

1 1,000 100 402 302 100 698

2 698 70 402 332 70 366

3 366 37 402 366 37 0

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0,62 3,79 1 1 621 3791

u nhau l 1000 vi r=10%, thi gian n=5

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3791 l gi tr hin ti ca dng tin

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2.6 Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u v tn T cng thc (4)

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Nper: number of period: so ky oan.

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Kt qu: n = 45 thng Nu li sut 12% nm (tc 1% thng) th thi gian tr lng l:

Bn ch cn a chut vo B1 v nh 12%, s thng s thay i thnh 51 thng nh trn.

Li tha vui cng bn,

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n mc n tr thnh mt trong cc nguyn tc nh gi d n.

Hoc c th vit cho gn hn:

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NPV = Trong , i: r: n: PV : Bi : Ci : (Bi Ci) :

tong cong cac gia tr hien tai (t i en n)