TRNG I HC NGN HNG TP.

H CH MINH
KHOA TN DNG

BI TIU LUN
TI CHNH QUC T
TI:

KHNG HONG N CNG V NHNG TC NG CA

N TI TI CHNH TIN T 2009 - 2011

Gio vin hng dn: H Thy i

Lp: EC012_1_111_T07
Nhm thc hin: Nhm 7

H v tn

MSSV

1. Phm Vn Tin

0301 2509 0881

2. Nguyn c Huy

0301 2509 0250

3. Thy Linh

0301 2509 0410

4. Phm Th Hng Thm

0301 2509 0843

5. Trn Thc Ngn

0301 2509 0543

TP.HCM, ngy thng nm 2010

DANH SCH THNH VIN NHM

H v tn

Phm Vn Tin

MSSV

0301 2509 0881

Nhim v
Tnh hnh n cng ca th
gii, gii php cho n cng
ca vit nam, tng kt bi
Word, lm slide, thuyt trnh

Nguyn c Huy

0301 2509 0250

Thy Linh

0301 2509 0410

N cng v khng hong n

cng, lm slide, thuyt trnh
Tnh hnh n cng ca Vit
Nam, lm slide thuyt trnh
Khng hong n cng Hy

Phm Th Hng Thm

Trn Thc Ngn

0301 2509 0843

0301 2509 0543

Lp v tc ng n tnh
hnh TCTT, thuyt trnh
Khng hong n cng
Ierland v tc ng n tnh
hnh TCTT, thuyt trnh

NHN XT CA GING VIN

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3

MC LC
LI M U ................................................................................................................ 5
PHN 1: N CNG V KHNG HONG N CNG .......................................... 7
1.1. N cng: ..................................................................................................................... 7
1.1.1. nh ngha:...................................................................................................... 7
1.1.2. Phn loi n cng:........................................................................................... 7
1.1.3. Ch tiu xc nh tnh trng n cng v ngng an ton n cng: ................. 7
1.2. Khng hong n cng:.............................................................................................. 8
1.2.1. Th no l khng hong n cng? .................................................................. 8
1.2.2. Nguyn nhn ch yu gy ra tnh trng khng hong n cng: ..................... 8
1.3. Tc ng ca khng hong n cng n ti chnh tin t ..................................... 8
1.4. V n di con mt ca kinh t hc: ti sao Hy Lp v Ireland khng tuyn
b v n? ........................................................................................................................... 9

PHN 2: KHNG HONG N CNG & TC NG CA N N TNH

HNH TI CHNH TIN T 2 NC IN HNH L HY LP V
IRELAND .................................................................................................................... 11
2.1. Tnh hnh n cng ca th gii thi gian va qua. .............................................. 11
2.2. Khng hong n cng Hy Lp v tc ng n tnh hnh TCTT: ..................... 13
2.2.1. Thc trng khng hong n cng Hy Lp: ................................................ 13
2.2.1.1. T l n cng trn GDP: ........................................................................... 13
2.2.1.2. T trng n cng ca Hy Lp: ................................................................... 13
2.2.1.3. Thm ht cn cn vng lai trong mt thi gian di. ................................ 13
2.2.2. Nguyn nhn gy ra khng hong n cng: ............................................. 14
2.2.3. Tc ng ca n cng n tnh hnh ti chnh tin t: ............................ 16
2.2.3.1. Xp hng tn dng: ..................................................................................... 17
2.2.3.2. Gi tri phiu gim v li sut tng: ......................................................... 17
2.2.3.3. Ct gim chi tiu:....................................................................................... 17
2.2.3.4. u t trc tip FDI: ................................................................................. 18
2.2.3.5. Tc tng trng GDP gim: ................................................................. 19
2.2.3.6. Tht nghip gia tng: ................................................................................. 19
2.3. Khng hong n cng Ireland v tc ng n tnh hnh TCTT:...................... 19
2.3.1. Thc trng khng hong n cng Ireland: .............................................. 19
2.3.1.1. T l n cng trn GDP: ............................................................................ 19
2.3.1.2. Tnh trng thm ht ngn sch: (theo di hnh 2.13) ................................ 20
2.3.1.3. Thm ht cn cn vng lai ......................................................................... 20
2.3.1.4. C cu n nc ngoi v nguyn nhn dn n khng hong n cng. ... 20
2.3.2. Tc ng ca n cng n tnh hnh ti chnh tin t: ............................ 22
2.3.2.1. Xp hng tn nhim b h bc: ................................................................... 22
2.3.2.2. Gi tri phiu gim v li sut tng: ......................................................... 22
2.3.2.3. u t trc tip FDI gim nhanh ng k : .............................................. 22
4

2.3.2.4. Tc tng trng GDP gim: ................................................................ 22

2.3.2.5. Ct gim chi tiu:....................................................................................... 23
2.3.2.6. Lm pht v tht nghip: ........................................................................... 23
2.4. EU v IMF lm g cu Hy lp v Ireland? ................................................. 24

PHN 3: THC TRNG N CNG VIT NAM ............................................. 26

V GII PHP ........................................................................................................... 26
3.1. Thc trng n cng Vit Nam: ........................................................................... 26
3.1.1. N cng tng lin tc trong nhng nm qua, tim n nhiu ri ro: .............. 26
3.1.2. Vit nam s dng n cng cha tht s hiu qu : ....................................... 27
3.1.3. Thm ht ngn sch ngy cng tng dn n tnh bn vng ca n cng b
gim st: .................................................................................................................. 29
3.1.4. N cng ca Vit Nam xp top cui v tnh minh bch: .............................. 29
3.2. Cc gii php Vit Nam khng ri vo khng hong n cng: ..................... 30
3.2.1. Tng cng nng lc cnh tranh cho nn kinh t: .................................. 30
3.2.1.1. Tng nng sut lao ng: .......................................................................... 30
3.2.1.2. Tng cng cht lng v sc cnh tranh ca hng xut khu v mi
trng u t: ......................................................................................................... 30
3.2.2. Nhm gii php lin quan n vic vay v s dng n cng hiu qu: . 31
3.2.2.1. Gim thm ht ngn sch nh nc (NSNN) nhm hn ch vic vay n: . 31
3.2.2.2. Nng cao hiu qu huy ng vn v s dng vn vay: ............................ 31
3.2.3. Nhm gii php lin quan n vic qun l n cng: .............................. 32
3.2.3.1. Tip tc hon thin cc th ch v xy dng khung php l: .................... 32
3.2.3.2. m bo an ton, bn vng n: ................................................................ 32
3.2.3.3. Cng khai v minh bch ha thng tin v n cng: .................................. 34

KT LUN .................................................................................................................. 34
TRCH DN BIU V S LIU ...................................................................... 35
TI LIU THAM KHO .......................................................................................... 45

LI M U
Khng hong ti chnh ang din ra ngy cng lin tc vi cng mnh v
din bin phc tp gy ra nhng hu qu rt nng n i vi c quc gia cng
nghip pht trin ln cc nc ang pht trin. Bn cnh khng hong ti chnh,
ngy nay ngi ta cn cp nhiu v nghin cu mt cch nghim tc hn mt
loi khng hong mi Khng hong n cng. Tnh trng n cng gia tng lin tc
c cc nc pht trin vt qu s tng trng ca nn kinh t (GDP) gy ra tnh
trng mt kim sot trong kh nng chi tr ca quc gia. in hnh l cuc khng
hong n cng Iceland, Argentina, v gn y nht l mt s nc trong khu vc
EU nh Hy Lp v Ireland. Chnh iu nh ln hi trng bo ng cho cc
nc trn ton th gii phi suy ngh chn chn v tnh trng n cng ca chnh
quc gia mnh. Chnh v vy, nghin cu khng hong n cng v tc ng ca n
n th trng ti chnh tin t l vic lm ht sc cn thit v cp bch hin nay
khng ch Vit Nam m cn trong khu vc v trn ton th gii.
y l ti kh rng v c tnh bao qut cao. Do , vi kin thc hn hp
ca Nhm 7, chng em trnh by mt s hiu bit khi qut v nhng vn sau:
Phn 1: N cng v khng hong n cng.
Phn 2: Khng hong n cng v tc ng ca n n tnh hnh ti chnh tin t 2
nc in hnh l Hy Lp v Ireland.
Phn 3: Thc trng n cng Vit Nam v gii php.
Trong sut qu trnh lm vic mc d nhm c gng. Tuy nhin, c nhng
hn ch khch quan m nhm kh c trnh nn i khi cng c ch sai xt. Mong
c v cc bn nghin cu, ng thi gp bi tiu lun thm phn hon thin

PHN 1: N CNG V KHNG HONG N CNG

1.1. N cng:
1.1.1. nh ngha:
Theo lut qun l n cng s 29/2009/QH12 ngy 17/06/2009 th n cng
bao gm: N Chnh ph, n c Chnh ph bo lnh v n ca chnh quyn a
phng. Nh vy, Cc khon vay nh vay vn ODA, pht hnh tri phiu chnh
ph (trong cng nh ngoi nc), tri phiu cng trnh th hay mt tp on
kinh t vay n nc ngoi c chnh ph bo lnh u c xem l n cng.
1.1.2. Phn loi n cng:
Phn theo ngun vay bao gm: vay trong nc; vay nc ngoi.
Phn theo ch th i vay bao gm: Chnh ph; chnh quyn a phng; doanh
nghip v cc t chc ti chnh, tn dng c Chnh ph bo lnh..
Phn theo loi hnh vay bao gm: vay h tr pht trin chnh thc (vay ODA);
vay u i; vay thng mi.
Phn theo thi hn vay bao gm: vay ngn hn; vay trung di hn;
Phn theo loi li sut bao gm: li sut c nh; li sut th ni.
Phn theo ch n v nhm ch n: ch n chnh thc; ch n t nhn.
Phn theo cng c n bao gm: tha thun vay; tn phiu; tri phiu; cng tri
v cc cng c n khc.
1.1.3. Ch tiu xc nh tnh trng n cng v ngng an ton n cng:
Cc ch tiu gim st v n cng, n nc ngoi ca quc gia bao gm:N
cng so vi GDP(ch yu);N nc ngoi ca quc gia so vi GDP;Ngha v tr
n nc ngoi ca quc gia so vi tng kim ngch xut nhp khu..
Ngng an ton ca n cng:
Theo cng trnh nghin cu nm 2010 ca C quan nghin cu kinh t quc
gia M (NBER): khi t l n/GDP vt ngng 90% th n tc ng xu n tng
trng kinh t v lm gim i 4% trong tng trng kinh t ca quc gia .
Theo qui nh ca Khi s dng ng tin chung Chu u, t l n cng ti a
i vi mt quc gia thnh vin l 60% GDP, thm ht ngn sch hng nm khng
c vt qu 3% GDP
Tuy nhin xt mt cch ton din th cn t trong mi lin h vi h thng
cc ch tiu kinh t v m ca nn kinh t quc dn, nht l: tc v cht lng
tng trng kinh t, hiu qu s dng vn... cng nh nhng tiu ch nh: c cu

n cng, t trng cc loi n, c cu li sut, thi gian tr n cng cn c phn

tch k lng khi nh gi tnh bn vng n cng.
1.2. Khng hong n cng:
1.2.1. Th no l khng hong n cng?
Khng hong n cng l tnh trng n cng tng cao (v n), lm chao o
nn kinh t do s mt cn i gia thu v chi ngn sch quc gia. Nhu cu chi
nhiu qu, trong khi thu khng p ng ni, chnh ph i vay tin thng qua nhiu
hnh thc nh pht hnh cng tri, tri phiu, hip nh tn dng, chi, t dn
n tnh trng n. Thm ht ngn sch ko di lm cho n cng gia tng. N khng
tr sm, lu thnh "li m li con" v ngy cng chng cht thm.
1.2.2. Nguyn nhn ch yu gy ra tnh trng khng hong n cng:
- Vic gia tng mnh chi tiu t ngn sch nh nc, lng v chi ph hot ng
ca b my nh nc, c bit, hu qu ca cuc khng hong ti chnh-kinh
t ton cu va qua buc nhiu nc phi chi rt nhiu khc phc.
- Chnh ph khng minh bch cc s liu v tnh trng ngn sch ca quc gia,s
kim sot chi tiu v qun l n ca Nh nc yu km, khng cht ch, gy tht
thot, lng ph trong u t v chi tiu, t nn tham nhng pht trin(Hy Lp)
- Cc ngun thu (ch yu t thu) tng khng kp vi nhu cu chi( ct gim thu,
trn thu, t tham nhng, hi l, kim sot khng cht ch.)
- Tm l o tng v sc mnh, uy tn quc gia dn n tnh trng vay n trn lan,
u t qu trn, thiu tnh ton.. (in hnh Argentina)
- Chnh ph khng kp thi khng ch hnh vi cho vay thiu trch nhim ca mt
s ngn hng khi nn kinh t tng trng nng to thnh bong bng. Mt khc
cn la chn bao cp cc ngn hng ny khi h b thua l. ( Ireland)
- T l tit kim trong nc thp lm cho thm ht ngn sch ngy cng tng.
1.3. Tc ng ca khng hong n cng n ti chnh tin t: ( y xem xt
i din l n chnh ph)
Khng hong n cng tc ng n nn kinh t thng qua cc ch s sau:
- Cn cn ngn sch thm ht
- Gi tri phiu gim v li sut tng
- Lm pht tng.
- Cc doanh nghip hn ch u t, tc tng trng GDP gim.
- Tht nghip tng

 Khng hong n cng, cn cn ngn sch thm ht, Chnh ph cn huy ng

tr n buc phi vay ca cng chng bng cch pht hnh tri phiu, vay mn
ngn hng trung ng hoc cu vin cu tr t cc nc khc, t cc t chc
quc t nh IMF...hoc tng thu b p thm ht ngn sch bn cnh phi
thc hin chnh sch tht lng buc bng gim chi tiu. Vic pht hnh
thm tri phiu chnh ph th gi tri phiu chnh ph gim, li sut tri phiu
tng v chnh ph phi nng li sut tri phiu th mi huy ng c ngi mua.
Khi cn cn ngn sch thm ht, ngn hng trung ng s ti tr thm ht bng
cch pht hnh thm tin lm tng khi cung tin gy ra p lc lm pht.
Bn cnh , vic ct gim chi tiu, tng thu s lm gim u t trc tip, km
hm kinh t, lm chm tc tng trng (th hin tc tng trng GDP
gim st ch s n/GDP tng). Vic gim chi tiu, gim u t s dn n tnh
trng vic lm gim, tht nghip gia tng.
Mt khc, cn cn ngn sch thm ht gy ra s mt lng tin ca ngi dn
v ca nh u t mi i vi cc nn kinh t quc gia khin ng tin quc gia
st gi. iu c th dn ti mt t tho chy vi quy m ln trn th trng
tri phiu v c phiu lm gi chng khon b st gim.
1.4. V n di con mt ca kinh t hc: ti sao Hy Lp v Ireland khng
tuyn b v n?
Khi khng hong n xy ra vi qui m ln th mc ch ca ngn hng ch n
v cc nc pht trin l trnh khng bt c mt quc gia no tuyn b v n,
ng thi thng th cc nc con n khng bao gi mun tuyn b v n v chi ph
thanh ton n thng thp hn cc ph tn phi chu khi tuyn b v n.
Nhng ph tn lin quan ti li ch quc gia:
9

Th nht: mt kh nng vay n trong tng lai: khi 1 quc gia tuyn b v n th
ng ngha vi vic t b kh nng vay n nc ngoi trong tng lai: t cc nc
, IMF ,World Bank,..=>tc tng trung kinh t b km hm.
Th hai:gim li ch t thng mi quc t: cc nc ch n s p dng nhng
bin php bo h thng mi trng pht, xut khu b tch thu khi chm n bin
gii quc t, kh khn trong nhp khu.=>khi lng ngoi thng gim.
Th ba:tch thu nhng ti sn hi ngoi: cc ch n s thuyt phc chnh ph phong
ta hay tch thu nhng ti sn ca nc con n cn nm trn lnh th ca nc ch
n.
Gi s ta goi nhng li ch rng t vic v n l NRT cn nhng ph tn lin
quan ti vic v n l C. Nc con n s cha tuyn b v n khi no Li ch
rng cn nh hn ph tn v n, ngha l:
NRT < C
Phng trnh trn c ngha rt quan trng i vi cc ch n thc thi cc
bin php khc nhau nhm khch l cc con n khng i n tuyn b v n.

10

PHN 2: KHNG HONG N CNG & TC NG CA N N

TNH HNH TI CHNH TIN T 2 NC IN HNH L HY LP
V IRELAND
2.1. Tnh hnh n cng ca th gii thi gian va qua.
Ngy 12 thng 8 nm 1982, chnh ph Mexico ra tuyn b rng nc ny
mt kh nng hon tr $80 t cho cc ngn hng quc t v chnh ph nc ngoi.
y c coi l tn hiu u tin v mt cuc khng hong n quc t.
T trc ti nay vn n cng ch yu tp trung cc nc km pht trin,
ch yu tp trung khu vc M La Tinh v Chu phi. Trong 4 nc lun trong
tnh trng c nguy c v n cao nht l:Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela. Bc
sang u th k XXI ting chung cnh bo u tin cng xut pht t mt nhn vt
khng my xa l trong vn ny l vic Argentina tuyn b v n vo nm 2001,
ngay sau khi qu tin t IMF ngng cp tn dng cho nc ny thanh ton cc
khon n.
Nhng t nm 2008 ti nay vn n cng li xut pht t nhng nc pht
trin, nhng nn kinh t hng u th gii m khng my ai ng ti. (Hnh 2.1)
Kinh t th gii va tri qua cn bo khng hong d di nht k t sau cuc
i suy thoi 1929-1933 v ang cht vt hi phc. Th nhng, s hi phc hin nay
ca kinh t th gii rt mong manh, bp bnh v khng loi tr kh nng c th b
suy thoi tr li bi nhiu nguyn nhn, trong tnh trng n cng trn lan nhiu
nc l mt nguyn nhn quan trng.
Trong cc nc ang b cc ni n ln thi nc M chnh l con n ln
thuc loi hng u th gii vi tng s n ln ti 13.590 t USD, chim khong
93.2% GDP nm 2010. Mi y ngy 02/08/2011 quc hi M thng qua trn n
cng ln thm 2.400 t USD so vi mc c l 14.300 t USD.Chnh v nhng khon
n khng l m Standard & Poors (S&P) (t chc xp hng tn dng th gii)
h bc tn dng ca M t AAA xung AA+.
Cn nu tnh theo T l Public debt/ GDP th chng ta s git mnh khi nhn
vo con s ca nht bn l 220,3% v mc thm ht ngn sch 7.04% (nm 2010).
Trn ng t v sng thn hi u thng 3-2011 s gp phn lm tnh trng n
cng ca nht bn thm trm trong hn na, theo mt thng k mi nht ca IMF
th hin ti n cng ca Nht Bn ln ti khong 229% GDP.
Nhng vn n cng ln nht trong t khng hong ny li nm lc
a gi ni tp trung nhng nn kinh t lu i, pht trin n nh nht trn th
11

gii. Xem xt mng li n cng chnh ph th 5 nc Hy Lp Ireland - Ty

Ban Nha B o Nha Italia ang trn b vc ca s ph sn. tnh hnh ti t
nht cho ti hin nay nm hai nc l Hy lp v Ireland chng ta s xem xt
phn sau. Theo t The New York Times nh gi: "nguy c thc s nm Ty
Ban Nha v Italia".
Ngy 03/8, cc th trng ti chnh Italia v Ty Ban Nha ng trc mt
"cn st mi" khi li sut vay mn ca chnh ph tng cao ti mc k lc k t khi
lu hnh ng euro:
- Ti Ty Ban Nha, li sut tri phiu chnh ph k hn 10 nm tng ln ti
-

6,45%, mc cao nht k t khi ng euro c lu hnh u nm 1999

Cng ngy, ti Italia, li sut tri phiu k hn 10 nm cng ln ti 6,18% ,
cao hn mc c ghi nhn vo ngy 21/7, khi Lin minh chu u (EU)
thng bo v k hoch ngn chn khng hong n, trong c gi cu tr ti

chnh th hai cho Hy Lp.

Cuc khng khong n cng cn xy ra nhng nc c nn kinh t ang
pht trin cc thnh m chng ta khng ng ti. con s bo co t l Public debt/
GDP nm 2010 ca n ch l 69,2% nhng theo cc chuyn gia th thc t con
s ny c th ln ti hn 80%. S minh bch v cc con s nhy cm nh vy cn
ng lo Ngi hn Trung Quc, nc ang l ch n ln nht ca M v nhiu
nc c nn Kinh t pht trin. Theo con s chnh thc m Bc Kinh cng b th s
n ca chnh ph Trung Quc ch l 1,04 nghn t USD, Mc n ny ch tng
ng vi khong 17% GDP. Tuy nhin, Theo Wall Street Journal, tng ngha v
n ca Chnh ph Trung Quc c th ln ti 75-77% GDP.
Trn y l nhng nc trong thi gian qua c th gii nhc nhiu ti cc
khon n cng ca nht bn. vy th nguyn nhn ca cc khon n cng t u
ra? N tc ng g n tnh hnh cc quc gia? cc hng gii quyt m th gii ,
ang v nn p dng l g? V n rt ra nhng bi hc kinh nghim g cho Vit
Nam? tr li nhng cu hi nhm chng ti xin phn tch cuc khng hong
n cng ca hai nc in hnh nht trong thi gian va qua l Hy lp V
Ireland. T lin h ti tnh hnh ca Vit Nam.

12

2.2. Khng hong n cng Hy Lp v tc ng n tnh hnh TCTT:

2.2.1. Thc trng khng hong n cng Hy Lp:
im mnh: Du lch l ngun thu ngoi t ch yu ca Hy Lp v ng gp ti
15% GDP. Cc ngnh kinh t khc nh ngn hng, ti chnh, vin thng, sn xut
cc thit b cng ngh cao cng pht trin mnh ti Hy Lp. Nc ny cng c li
th v kinh t bin vi rt nhiu cng nc su v mt ngnh cng nghip ng tu
hng mnh.
2.2.1.1. T l n cng trn GDP:
T lc bt u tham gia s dng ng tin chung chu u (Euro) vo gia
nm 2001 cho n nm 2010, Hy Lp lun vt ch tiu n cng theo quy nh ca
hip hi cc nc thuc khu vc EURO l 60%/ GDP, c lc t l n cng ca quc
gia ny ln n 142,8% GDP vo nm 2010, n chnh ph ln n 328,6 t EUR
(nm 2010) vt xa ch tiu m khu vc EURO cho php, hin nay s n ca Hy lp
c tnh ln ti hn 350 t EUR, chim khong 130,2%GDP. (Hnh 2.2)
2.2.1.2. T trng n cng ca Hy Lp:
Ri ro ln nht ca Hy Lp l n vay nc ngoi chim t l ln, c th ln
n 80%. c tnh t l tri phiu do nc ngoi nm gi c th ln ti 80% lng
tri phiu chnh ph pht hnh. Ch n phn ln l cc ngn hng chu u. Cc
nc , Ireland cng trong tnh cnh thm ht ngn sch v n cng cao, nhng
khng b nh gi nghim trng bng Hy Lp (Hnh 2.3). S d nh vy v cc nc
ny c nn kinh t tng i ln, ngn sch ln, kh nng kim sot n trong nc
cao hn, cc ch s v c cu n cng nh cc bin s v pht trin kinh t v M tt
hn hy lp.
Tnh theo thi gian Vi mc vay n nh trn, Hy Lp phi i mt vi khon
n n hn phi thanh ton 8,5 t euro (tng ng 11,3 t la M) tri phiu
chnh ph vo ngy 19-5-2010. Cha n mt nm, mt t tr n k tip din ra
vo thng 3/2011, vi s tin 8.6 t Euro.
Hu ht cc khon n ca Hy Lp l ngn hn, trong , s n phi tr trong
nm 2010 l 16% tng n (Hnh 2.4).
2.2.1.3. Thm ht cn cn vng lai trong mt thi gian di.
Hy lp thm ht cn cn vng lai trong mt thi gian di, ngay t khi gia
nhp vo khu vc ng tin chung Euro, nhng tnh trng thm ht vn khng c
ci thin m c xu hng ngy cng tng, n thng tm nm 2011,Hy Lp bo co
thm ht ti khon vng lai tng ng vi 145 triu EUR. (Hnh 2.5)
13

S thm ht cn cn vng lai ca Hy Lp bt ngun t s thm ht thng

mi ca nc ny, cng nh tnh trng cn cn vng lai, cn cn thng mi ca Hy
Lp lun trong tnh trng thm ht, n thng tm nm nay, Hy Lp bo co thm
ht thng mi tng ng vi 2.169 triu EUR. (Hnh 2.6)
2.2.1.4. Tnh trng thm ht ngn sch:
Trong nhng nm qua, tnh trng thm ht ngn sch ca Hy Lp ngy cng
gia tng, c bit l trong giai on t 2008-2009. Nm 2009, mc thm ht ngn
sch l 15.4% GDP vt ngng an ton l 5% GDP v vt mc cho php ca khu
vc ng tin chung l 3%/GDP. b p thm ht ngn sch, Chnh ph Hy Lp
vay n di nhiu hnh thc.
Vi tnh trng thm ht ngn sch nh vy, n nm 2010, sau khi thc hin
cc bin php tht lng buc bng, th tnh trng thm ht ca Hy Lp gim
xung mc 10,5%GDP, tuy nhin y cng cn l mt con s kh cao so vi ch
tiu m khu vc ng tin chung ny ra. (Hnh 2.7)
=> Cuc khng hong n Hy Lp bt u vo thng 12/2009 khi th tng mi ca
ng x hi Hi Lp, ng George A. Papandreou, thng bo rng ngi tin nhim
ca ng che du tnh trng thm ht ngn sch khng l m nc ny ang mc
phi thm ht ngn sch chnh ph ca nc ny l 12,7% GDP, ch khng phi
3,7% nh chnh ph tin nhim d bo trc .
2.2.2. Nguyn nhn gy ra khng hong n cng:
Khng hong n ca Hy Lp xut pht t nguyn nhn chnh l kh nng
qun tr ti chnh cng yu km ca nc ny vi nhng khon chi tiu ca chnh
ph qu ln v vt kim sot. Kt qu l thm ht ngn sch nc ny vt trn
10% GDP v tng n chnh ph trn GDP 142,8% (nm 2010)
Tc ng ca cuc khng hong Kinh t 2007 2008
Cuc khng hong ngun thu t thu ca chnh ph hy lp st gim nghim
trng trong khi vn phi chi tiu kch thch nn kinh t phc hi trong suy
thoi, chnh iu ny cng lm bong bng n cng thm phnh to ra.
Tham nhng, hi l c h thng
Nhiu nm qua, cc quan chc, chnh tr gia Hy Lp lin tc phi t chc
v lin quan n tham nhng, nhn hi l. Nhng, cho n nay, rt t ngi b xt x
v kt n v ti danh tham nhng. Chnh iu ny khin ngi ta ngh n mt
iu lut bt thnh vn, l vic, cc quan chc tham nhng, nhn hi l rt
mnh tay, nhng n khi b c quan iu tra pht hin th li rt nhanh v mnh
mm tuyn b t chc, v s khng b a ra xt x na.
14

Nghin cu ca Daniel Kaufmann thuc Vin Brookings M cho rng c

mi lin h cht ch gia tham nhng v thm ht ngn sch. Thit hi m tham
nhng gy ra cho Hy Lp c c tnh vo khong 8% GDP Ni cch khc,
khong hn 50% s thm ht ngn sch nm 2009 ca Hy Lp l do tham nhng m
ra.(VN economy)
Chi tiu cng siu thong
Theo mt ngun tin t B Ti chnh Hy Lp, trong nm 2009, B ny
tuyn dng tng cng khong 27.000 cng chc mi, nhng s cng chc ch n
cng s ngi chi xi nc chim ti 1/3. Tnh n nm 2009, lng cng chc
Hy Lp chim ti 1/4 s ngi lm cng n lng nc ny.. Lng cao,
thng vo cui nm cng cao, cng chc cn c lnh ti 16 thng lng. Nhiu
cng chc Hy Lp c ngh hu trc nm 60 tui vi mc lng hu bng 3/4
mc lng khi cn i lm.
Vay tin ... nng lng nhn vin chnh ph v t chc Th vn hi.
Th vn hi Athens 2004 l mt c hi khng th no tt hn Hy Lp gia
tng cc d n s ca mnh v tip tc i vay n thoi mi v mc tiu Th vn
hi.
Vic khng tun th cht ch cc quy nh trong lin minh tin t.
Tht vy, theo Hip c Maastricht, tham gia vo khu vc ng tin
chung, cc quc gia thnh vin phi p ng nhiu chun mc, trong c quy nh
mc bi chi ca ngn sch phi nh hn hoc bng 3% GDP, c xem xt trng hp
mc thm ht ang trong xu hng c ci thin hoc mc thm ht ln hn 3%
nhng mang tnh tm thi, khng ng k, khng l mc bi chi c cu; n chnh
ph nh hn hoc bng 60% GDP, c xem xt cc trng hp ang iu chnh.
Theo quy nh ny, Hy Lp cha iu kin tham gia khu vc ng tin
chung chu u vo thng 5-1998. Nhng hai nm sau, ngy 1-1-2001, mc d vn
cha chun, Hy Lp cng c chp thun gia nhp vo khu vc ng tin
chung vi iu kin phi n lc ci thin mc thm ht ngn sch v n chnh ph.
Tuy nhin, n nay, cc rng buc trn vn ch l li ha ca Hy Lp. Bi chi ngn
sch v n nc ngoi khng nhng khng c ci thin m c xu hng ngy
cng tng.
Tc ng tiu cc ca tin trnh hi nhp kinh t khu vc
Qu trnh hnh thnh ng tin chung c chia thnh ba giai on nhm
gip cc quc gia iu chnh nn kinh t theo hng hi nhp ton din v su rng
- hng ha, vn v sc lao ng c t do ha hon ton. Tuy nhin, hi nhp

15

cng c mt tri ca n. i vi cc quc gia nh, nng lc cnh tranh yu th y

thc s l thch thc.
Vi mt quc gia c ngun ti nguyn hn hp, li th thng mi thp, nng
lc cnh tranh thp th h khng th xy dng ro cn bo h nn sn xut trong
nc. Hng ha thiu cnh tranh, sn xut nh tr, t l tht nghip gia tng, thu
ngn sch gim, chi an sinh x hi cao.
Ngoi ra, theo quy nh ca EU, cc quc gia c php gi li 25% thu
xut nhp khu hng ha vo EU trang tri chi ph hot ng v 75% cn li
c chuyn vo ngn sch chung ca EU. iu ny c ngha, cc quc gia c v tr
thun li v giao thng quc t: sn bay, bn cng... s nhn c mt ngun thu
c bit t thu nhp khu vo EU m cc quc gia nh hn, v tr bt li hn nh
Hy Lp khng nhn c; thm ch l khon thu nh trn hng ha nhp khu
ang tiu th ti nc mnh. Ngun thu ngn sch ca h b suy gim.
Ngoi ra, ti cc nc km pht trin hn nh Hy Lp, trnh ln sng di
dn khi thc hin t do ha lao ng, chnh ph buc phi gia tng cc khon chi
phc li, chi an sinh x hi cho cng dn ca mnh. iu ny gp phn lm gia tng
thm ht ngn sch.
Khng minh bch trong cc con s bo co:
Vo thi im Hy Lp gia nhp Eurozone, c nhng bng chng cho thy
quc gia ny a ra nhng s liu khng trung thc, ECB cng t ra quan ngi v
tnh hnh n ca Hy Lp vt xa trn quy nh ca Eurozone, nhng cc nh lnh
o chu u khng phn i. V l do chnh tr, h cho Hy Lp tham gia ng
Euro.
n nm 2004, bng chng v vic Hy Lp cng b s liu kinh t gi mo
c Eurostat thu thp , nhng cc quan chc ca chu u vn tuyn b rng,
vic trc xut Hy Lp khi Eurozone khng phi l la chn ca h v cho Hy Lp
thi gian sa cha. n nm 2007, ECB tuyn b Hy Lp c nhng bin php
khc phc ph hp, v thm ht ca quc gia ny s ch cn 2,6% GDP vo nm
2006 v 2,4% vo nm 2007. y ban cng a ra kt lun rng C quan Thng k
ca Hy Lp ci thin quy trnh lm vic ca mnh v cht lng s liu thng k
ca h tt hn. Tuy nhin, n nm 2009, th mt ln na cu hi v s gian ln
s liu ca quc gia ny li c lt li. Chnh iu ny lm cho cc nh u t
v cc Ngn hng thng mi quc t mt nim tin, t rt vn lm cho nguy c
v n ca Hy lp thm trm trng.
2.2.3. Tc ng ca n cng n tnh hnh ti chnh tin t:

16

2.2.3.1. Xp hng tn dng:

Ngy 15/6/2010, T chc xp hng tn dng Moodys h 4 bc xp hng
tn dng ca Hy Lp xung mc khng u t v cnh bo, vic Hy Lp gim thm
ht ngn sch s to ra nhiu hu qu xu v kinh t.
Theo hng tin Bloomberg, xp hng tn dng ca Hy Lp b h xung mc
Ba1 t mc A3. Trong tuyn b xp hng tn dng, Moodys nhiu ln nhc n
nhng ri ro i vi tng trng kinh t bi nhng bin php tht cht ngn sch
lin quan n gi gii cu 110 t EUR (136 t USD).
D c EU v IFM ha hn bm tin nhng hnh nh ca Hy Lp vn
cha c ci thin trong mt cc t chc xp hng c lp, vo 14/7/2011, hng
xp hng Fitch h 3 bc i vi mc tn dng ca Hy Lp t B+ xung CCC,
thp nht trong thang xp hng ca Fitch. L gii cho vic ny, Fitch cho rng cc
chng trnh ti tr m cc t chc ti chnh quc t dnh cho Hy Lp ch n thun
l ti chnh ch khng a ra nhng gii php y v ng rin cy.
Cng theo Fitch , vai tr ca khu vc t nhn trong cc chng trnh ci cch
ti Hy Lp cng cha thc s r rng, trong khi trin vng kinh t v m khng ly
lm chc chn. Chnh v vy, mc xp hng CCC (cn k ph sn) mi c a ra.
Vo ngy 28/07/2011 Standard $ Poors (S&P) nhn nh rng hy lp s ph
sn mt phn sau khi cc quan chc chu u thc y k hoch ti c cu n trong
gi cu tr 2. Chnh v vy S&P h tip hng tn dng ca Hy Lp t CCC xung
CC ch trn mc v n 2 bc vi nh gi trin vng tiu cc.
S&P cho bit, vic c cu li n ca Chnh ph Hy Lp c th ni l mt trao
i gy ra hu qu tiu cc v n c nguy c gy thit hi cho ch n.
2.2.3.2. Gi tri phiu gim v li sut tng:
T nm 1998 n nm 2011 Tri phiu Chnh ph Hy Lp c li trung bnh
5,21%, t mc cao lch s 11,39 % trong thng 12 nm 2010 v mt mc thp k
lc 3,23% trong thng 9 nm 2005. Li sut tri phiu ca Hy Lp thi gian gn y
tng cao v khng hong n cng, cn cn ngn sch thm ht, do chnh ph cn
huy ng vn tr n buc phi pht hnh tri phu. Vic pht hnh thm tri
phiu chnh ph th gi tri phiu chnh ph gim, th hin qua vic chnh ph phi
nng li sut tri phiu th mi huy ng c ngi mua, theo bo co mi nht th
li sut tri phiu ca Hy Lp ln n 11,39%. (Hnh 2.8)
2.2.3.3. Ct gim chi tiu:
ng trc nguyy c v n trong cuc khng hong n cng trm trng hin
nay, chnh ph Hy Lp buc phi a ra nhiu bin php tht cht chi tiu nh tng
17

cc loi thu nhm ci thin tnh hnh, mc d cc chnh sch m theo cc chuyn
gia th cc chnh sch ny cc k au n, v s khin cho cuc sng ca ngi dn
tr nn kh khn hn rt nhiu, chnh v vy, khi chnh ph Hy Lp a ra cc chnh
sch trn gp khng t nhng l sng phn i t dn chng.
Tng cc loi thu: Trong nm 2011, Hy Lp s thu 2,32 t Euro thu v ln
lt l 3,38 t , 1.52 triu v 699 triu trong 3 nm tip theo. Trong , thu
gi tr gia tng (VAT) s tng t 19% ln 23%.
nh thu vo hng xa x: Nhng mt hng xa x s b nh thu l du
thuyn, h bi v t. S c mt loi thu c bit nh vo cc cng ty lm
n vi li nhun ln, bt ng sn gi tr ln.
nh thu vo mt s mt hng ni a: Thu nh vo cc mt hng ni a
nh nhin liu, thuc l, thc ung c cn s tng mt phn ba.
Gim chi tiu cng: cc chi tiu trong khu vc cng s b ct 15%.
Gim chi tiu qun s: trong nm 2012 chi tiu cho qun s ca Hy Lp s b
ct gim 200 triu Euro v t nm 2013 n 2015, s ct gim mi nm 333
triu Euro.
Gim chi tiu gio dc: chi tiu cho gio dc cng b ct gim bng cch
ng ca hoc st nhp 1976 trng hc.
Gim chi tiu cho an sinh x hi: trong nm 2011, 1,09 t Euro s c ct t
qu an sinh x hi ca Hy Lp. Tip n, t nm 2012 n 2015 s ct gim
ln lt l 1,28t; 1,03 t; 1,01 t v 700 triu. Bn cnh , tui v hu
s tng t 61 ln 65.
T hu ha chnh ph: chnh ph Hy Lp s tin hnh t nhn ha cc doanh
nghip quc doanh trong c OPAP, Hellenic Postbank, Hellenic Telecom.
Bn cnh cng s bn c phn ti Athens Water, cng ty du kh Hellenic
Petroleum, cng ty in PPC v lender ATEbank v mt s hi cng, sn
bay, ng cao tc, quyn s hu t v khai khong.
Sa thi cng chc: trong nm 2011, c 10 cng chc s c mt ngi b sa
thi. Cn trong nhng nm ti, t ln sa thi s l c 5 ngi th s sa thi 1
ngi.
Gim chi tiu y t: trong nm 2011, chi tiu cho y t s b ct gim 310 triu
Euro v t 2012 n 2015 s gim 1,81 triu euro.
2.2.3.4. u t trc tip FDI:
Chnh ph Hy Lp ang thc hin cc bin php tht lng buc bng nhm
m bo cam kt gim thm ht ngn sch ca Chnh ph Hy Lp nhn c s
18

tr gip t EU v IMF. V thc hin chnh sch gim chi tiu, tng thu nn dn n
tnh hnh u t FDI vo Hy Lp gim mnh.
Nh m t trong th I, trong thi gian 2006-2008 FDI vo Hy Lp lin
tc duy tr mc cao hn so vi giai on nm 2003 - 2005, mc d bin ng.
(Hnh 2.9) C nhiu yu t, chng hn nh ci thin c s h tng, ng mt vai
tr quan trng trong s gia tng ng k khi lng FDI.
Trong nm 2009 tng lung vn vo Hy Lp t 4,5 t Euro, v lung vn
rng vt qu 2,4 t Euro. So vi nm 2008, dng chy FDI vo Hy Lp st gim
21% do hu qu ca cuc khng hong n cng.
2.2.3.5. Tc tng trng GDP gim:
Hy Lp qun l t c mt nn kinh t pht trin nhanh chng sau khi
thc hin chnh sch n nh kinh t trong nhng nm gn y, t nht, trc cuc
khng hong ti chnh ton cu 2008-2009. T nm 1998 n nm 2008, GDP tng
dn qua cc nm v t mc cao nht vo thng 12 nm 2008 vi 355.88 t $.
Cui nm 2009, khi khng hong n cng xy ra lm cho cc nh u t lo
ngi v kh nng tr n ca Hy Lp v h t rt vn ra khi th trng Hy Lp
nn GDP gim xung cn 330 t.
T nm 2007 n nm 2010, bnh qun GDP hng nm ca Hy Lp gim dn
v k lc mc thp -6,6 % trong thng 12 nm 2010.(Hnh 2.10)
2.2.3.6. Tht nghip gia tng:
Khi nn kinh t ton cu mi thot khi khng hong, bt u c du hiu
phc hi do kt qu ca cc gi kch thch kinh t m chnh ph cc nc chi ra
trong nhng nm gn y, th vic ct gim chi tiu, tng thu s lm gim u t,
km hm s phc hi kinh t, lm chm tc tng trng s dn n tnh trng
vic lm gim, tht nghip gia tng. ng thi vi chnh sch tht lng buc
bng, khin cho tnh trng tht nghip nc ny cng thm nghim trng.
T nm 1983 n nm 2010, T l tht nghip ca Hy Lp trung bnh 9,43%, t l
ny ang gia tng dn trong nhng nm gn y, t l tht nghip Hy Lp ln cui
bo co mc 18,4% trong thng Tm nm 2011. (Hnh 2.11)
2.3. Khng hong n cng Ireland v tc ng n tnh hnh TCTT:
2.3.1. Thc trng khng hong n cng Ireland:
Th mnh kinh t: dc phm, hng cng ngh cao v dch v. Ireland c
hng li t mt lc lng lao ng c trnh cao v kh nng kt ni d dng vi
cc nn kinh t khc trong EU.
2.3.1.1. T l n cng trn GDP:
19

N Chnh ph ca Ireland ln cui bo co nm 2010 mc 96,2% GDP. V

theo s liu gn y nht, thng 11/2011, t l ny vo khong 99,4%GDP. T nm
1980 n nm 2010, n Chnh ph trung bnh trn GDP ca Ireland l 68,95%, tng
t mc cao lch s 109,20% trong thng 12 nm 1987 v ghi li mt mc thp
khong 24,80% trong thng 12 nm 2006 (hnh 2.12).
2.3.1.2. Tnh trng thm ht ngn sch: (theo di hnh 2.13)
Trc qu 1 nm 2008, ngn sch ca chnh ph Ireland lun trng thi
thng d. Tuy nhin t thi im ti nay, tnh trng ngn sch ca nc ny ngy
cng xu i, theo bo co nm 2010 mc thm ht ngn sch ln n con s
31,3% GDP. Ireland l nc c thm ht ngn sch cao nhy khu vc Eurozone.
Sut 3 nm qua, gi nh gim 50-60% khin cho t l n xu (c bit l n
ca cc cng ty pht trin bt ng sn) tng n mc bo ng. H thng ngn
hng, theo b t trc nguy c v khin Chnh ph phi ra tay can thip, cho
d ci gi phi tr l n cng tng cao.Nm 2009, chnh ph quc hu ha Anglo
Irish Bank. Trong xut v gi h tr t EU v IMF, Chnh ph Ireland cn tip
tc dng mt phn trong khon tin quc hu ha hai ngn hng ln ca nc
ny l Bank of Ireland v Allied Irish Bank, tip tc bm tin ti cp vn cho
nhiu ngn hng tng t l an ton vn ca cc t chc ny.
2.3.1.3. Thm ht cn cn vng lai
Ireland bo co thng d thng mi tng ng vi 4.113 triu EUR vo
thng Chn nm 2011. Xut khu vn l ng c chnh cho s tng trng ca
Ireland. Ireland t c thng d thng mi tng i cao nht so vi GDP
ca EU. Trong thi k khng hong n cng honh hnh, tnh hnh xut khu ca
Ireland gim mnh, tuy nhin cn cn thng mi vn trng thi thng d. Trong
nm 2010 v 2011 tnh hnh c phn ci thin do nhng n lc t pha chnh ph
nc ny. (hnh 2.14)
Tuy vy, cn cn vng lai ca Ireland vn thm ht di hn. Cn cn vng lai
thm ht nng nht vo qu I/2008, mc 4000 triu EUR. n qu I/2011 mc
thm ht gim xung tng ng vi 1031 triu EUR. Nhng chuyn bin xu
trong cn cn dch v, cn cn thu nhp v chuyn giao vng lai mt chiu gy
nn tnh trng thm ht cn cn vng lai bt chp cn cn thng mi thng d.
(hnh 2.15)
2.3.1.4. C cu n nc ngoi v nguyn nhn dn n khng hong n cng.
(hnh 2.16) T nm 2003 n nay, n nc ngoi ca Ireland tng nhanh
lin tc. Trong nm 2009, 2010 t trng n ca cc t chc ti chnh tin t c phn
gim xung v b li t trng n u t trc tip t nc ngoi v n trong cc lnh
20

vc khc tng ln. Trong c cu n ca Ireland, n ca cc t chc ti chnh tin t

lun chim t trng ln nht, nhng khon n ny cng tng rt nhanh trong giai
on 2003-2008 do h thng ngn hng ca nc ny qu d gii trong vic pht
hnh cc khon cho vay ( nht l trong lnh vc bt ng sn.) Khi th trng BS
sp , cc ngn hng lm vo tnh trng kh khn, tng t nh trng hp ca
M, Chnh ph Ireland buc phi cu h thng ngn hng theo cch ring ca mnh,
l to ra mt nh ch ti chnh mi gi l NAMA (National Asset Management
Agency) vo nm 2009 nhn hu ht tt c cc khon n xu ca cc ngn hng
ln ca Ireland. Cc ngn hng ca Ireland s bn li cc khon n xu ny cho
chnh ph i ly tri phiu chnh ph. Nh vy, Chnh ph Ireland bin n
xu ca cc ngn hng ny thnh ti sn cng (nhng ang lin tc mt gi) v ly
tin ca ngn sch b p cho cc tn tht ca n.
Trc sau g th cch thc dng tin chnh ph duy tr cc ti sn ngy
cng xung gi trong nn kinh t v bm vn vc dy khu vc ngn hng ca
Ireland cng s buc nc ny phi lin tc i vay mn v chp nhn thm ht
ngn sch cho n khi h khng cn kh nng chi tr na v phi n cu vin nc
ngoi. y cng chnh l nguyn nhn dn n khng hong n cng ca Ireland.
Vic h thng ngn hng sp s khin cho nn Kinh t Ireland hon
ton b ngng tr, ko theo sau l hng lot cc h ly v x hi. ngoi ra sau
n c th l quan bi mi n u tin cho s sp hng lot ca cc ngn hng
v cc chnh ph trong khu vc EU. Cui cng l s sp ca Khu vc Erozone,
mt iu m chng ai mong mun xy ra. V vy chnh ph IRELAND phi chp
nhn tnh trng n cng tng cao bm tin cu cc Ngn hng, sau hy vng
cc nc EU v IMF s cu tr.
Khc vi khng hong n ca Hy Lp xut pht t nguyn nhn chnh l kh
nng qun tr ti chnh cng yu km ca nc ny vi nhng khon chi tiu ca
chnh ph qu ln v vt kim sot. Kt qu l thm ht ngn sch nc ny vt
trn 13% GDP v tng n chnh ph trn GDP gn 130%. Qun l n cng ca
Ireland tng i kh hn vi mc n chnh ph trn GDP ch trn di 90% GDP.
Mc thm ht ngn sch ca Ireland gn y tng mnh khng km Hy Lp l do
chnh ph nc ny phi b tin ra cu tr ngnh ngn hng, bao gm quc hu ha
ngn hng v chi tin ti cp vn cho mt s ngn hng trong nc. Nh vy
chnh ph Ireland bin n xu t khu vc t nhn thnh gnh nng n nn ca
chnh ph v cui cng chnh ph khng tin tr n phi i cu vin EU v IMF
c tin tip tc cu gip h thng ngn hng ca mnh.

21

2.3.2. Tc ng ca n cng n tnh hnh ti chnh tin t:

2.3.2.1. Xp hng tn nhim b h bc:
Xp hng tn nhim ca Ireland theo Moodys :
Ngy
Xp
hng

7/11/2008 12/2/2009
Aaa

Aa3

7/7/2009
Aa1

11/2/2010 31/03/2010 17/12/2010 12/7/2011 18/8/2011

A1

Baa3

Baa1

Ba1

Ngun : http://www.bankofireland.com/about-boi-group/investor-relations/debt-investors/credit-ratings/

Mt trong nhng tc ng r nt nht ca khng hong n cng ln tnh hnh

ti chnh tin t Ireland chnh l vic xp hng tn nhim b h bc. M u l ngy
12/2/2009, Moodys h bc tn nhim ca Ireland t Aaa xung Aa3 do chnh ph
nc ny c ng thi ng ra bo lnh cho Anglo Irish bank. K t n nay,
xp hn tn nhim cng nh bc nh gi sc mnh ti chnh ngn hng( BFRS) v
cc ch tiu xp hng khc ca Ireland u b Moodys v cc t chc xp hng khc
h bc.
2.3.2.2. Gi tri phiu gim v li sut tng:
Li sut tri phiu chnh ph k hn 10 nm ca Ireland tng 129 im c
bn trong 12 thng qua. T nm 1991 n nm 2011, li sut trung bnh t
5,76%/nm, trong giai on kinh t Ireland tng trng n nh li sut tri phiu
mc thp, nht l trong thng 9 nm 2005 ch mc 3,06% , nhng t khi xy ra
khng hong n cng, li sut tri phiu lin tc tng v t mc cao lch s 14,04%
vo thng 7 nm nay do Moodys h bc tn nhim i vi tri phiu di hn ca
Ireland xung mc b i (Ba1). Li sut tri phiu phi tng b p ri ro v kh
nng tr n ca Ireland.(hnh 2.17)
2.3.2.3. u t trc tip FDI gim nhanh ng k :
C th thy r rng dng vn FDI chy vo Ireland o chiu ngon mc.
Nm 2004, FDI vn mc rt cao ( gn 20 t USD), sang nm 2005 cc nh u t
rt vn ng lot ra khi nc ny, khin dng vn FDI mc gn -30 t USD
v tip tc gim su hn trong nm 2006. Lc ny cc nh u t nhn ra qu
bong bng ang ngy cng phnh to ra v mt lng tin vi th trng Ireland. FDI
gim tc ng rt xu ln tnh hnh kinh t vn ang y p n ca Ireland. (hnh
2.18)
2.3.2.4. Tc tng trng GDP gim:
Trong thp nin 1990, Ireland c mt s tng trng thn k, thu nhp
bnh qun u ngi hng nm tng t 3,5% ln mc 6%, thi im trc khng
hong n cng, thu nhp bnh qun u ngi ca nc ny khong 40 nghn EUR.
22

Ba2

Trn thc t, Ireland pht trin thn k t im xut pht thp, nhng c thi
im tng trng GDP cn t mc 10%. y l mt s tng trng khng bn
vng. (hnh 2.19)
Tuy nhin, vn ca Ireland chuyn mu en. Theo thi gian, mi chi
ph Ireland, t tin lng ti vt liu u vo cng tng. Cng vi , nn kinh t
ny chuyn t ch pht trin bng n nh u t nc ngoi v xut khu sang pht
trin bong bng nh cc giao dch mua bn nh t v cc d n xy dng.
2.3.2.5. Ct gim chi tiu:
Quc hi Ireland ti 7/12/2010 thng qua chnh sch tht lng buc bng
nm 2011 trong lc chun b nhn vin tr ti chnh 85 t euro t EU v IMF.
Theo B trng Ti chnh Ireland, nc ny s tng thu vi tt c ngi
lao ng v ct gim phc li x hi, nhm tit kim khong 6 t euro vo nm
2011.
Ngn sch nm 2011 l ngn sch hn hp nht trong k hoch tht lng
buc bng 4 nm ti ca Ireland nhm tit kim 15 t bng Anh, gn 10% tng sn
phm quc ni (GDP) hng nm ca nc ny, nhm a thm ht ngn sch v
gii hn trn 3% GDP ca EU vo nm 2014.
2.3.2.6. Lm pht v tht nghip:
Lm pht
Tnh theo ch s hi ha gi tiu dng (HICP) ca EU, trc nm 2007 t l
lm pht ca Ireland l 2,7%, trong khi t l trung bnh ca EU l1,8%. T l lm
pht t mc cao k lc vo khong 5,1% nm 2007 v mc thp k lc vo khong
-6,56% trong thng 10/2009. Bong bng BS lm gi nh t tng, km theo l
s tng gi ca cc chi ph sn xut khc lm HICP tng, kt qu l y t l lm
pht ln cao. V iu ngc li xy ra khi bong bng v. T l lm pht Ireland
mc 2,8% trong thng Mi nm 2001 (hnh 2.20)
Tht nghip:
Theo thng k nm 2010, Ireland l quc gia c t l tht nghip cao ng
th 3 trong t chc hp tc v pht trin kinh t OECD v 50% trong tng s
440.000 ngi nhn tr cp tht nghip l tr cp di hn.
Trong thp nin 90, Ireland l mt trong nhng nc c thu nhp bnh qun
u ngi cao nht th gii. Nm 2001, t l tht nghip ch mc 3,9%. Khng
hong n cng xy ra cng vi chnh sch tht lng buc bng ca chnh ph lm
cho t l tht nghip Ireland tng lin tc k t nm 2009 v n nay vn cha c
xu hng gim. Theo bo co thng 9/2011, t l tht nghip l 14,3%. Tht nghip
tng gp phn lm gia tng bt n x hi. Bng chng l ngy cng c nhiu cuc
23

biu tnh yu cu chnh ph tng tr cp tht nghip v duy tr mt s chnh sch an

sinh x hi thit yu b chnh ph ct gim.(hnh 2.21)
2.4. EU v IMF lm g cu Hy lp v Ireland?
T nhng g phn tch trn ta thy vn n cng ca Ireland l n
gin hn nhiu so vi hy lp, cng vic quan trng i vi Ireland l phi c tin
ti tr cho cc khon n xu ca ngn hng, sau l vic qun tr s n nh th
no gim thit hi cho chnh ph, v vy vo cui thng 11/2010 c EU v IMF
ng cho Ireland vay 85 t Euro vi mc li sut 5,2% trang tri n nn.
Sau l vic c cu li n cho Ireland cng nhng cam kt khi h tr khi tnh hnh
xu i.
Vo ngy 2/5/2010 lin minh chu u EU v IMF thng qua gi cu tr
th nht cho Hy Lp tr gi 110 t EURO (tng ng khong 136 t USD), khon
gii ngn u tin tr gi 14,5 t EURO c gii ngn cho Hy lp vo ngy 1805-2011 . Chnh ph Hy Lp s s dng khon tin cu tr ny tr 8.5 t Euro n
tri phiu o hn vo ngy 19/5/2010, thay vo , chnh ph Hy Lp phi thc
hin hng lot cc chnh sch khc kh ct gim thm ht ngn sch nh tng
thu,gim lng, ct thng, xa thi bt s cng chc nh nc
Mc d, Ngay sau ngy Hy Lp n nhn thng bo v gi cu tr u tin
110 t euro t Lin minh chu u (EU) v Qu Tin t Quc t (IMF) vo hm 4/5,
cc th trng chu u v M tri qua chui ngy bin ng ti t. ng euro
chm mc 1,3031 so vi la M vo ngy 4/5 - thp nht trong vng mt nm v
cho n 5/6/2010 ch cn 1,2790 USD. Nhng vo ngy 21-07-2011, 17 nc thuc
khu vc EUROZONE mt ln na thng qua gi cu tr th 2 cho hy lp tr gi
158,6 triu Euro, iu ng ch trong gi cu tr ln ny l c s ng tham
gia ca khu vc t nhn, gi tr ln ti 49,6 t Euro.
Ngoi vic thng qua gi cu tr mi, cc nc Eurozone cng ng gin
n cho Hy Lp t cc khon vay t Qu Cu tr Tm thi (EFSF) t 7,5 nm thnh
t nht 15 nm v nhiu nht l 30 nm, ng thi nht tr gim li sut vay cho Hy
Lp xung cn 3,5% - so vi mc 4%-5% hin nay.
Mi y Ti Hi ngh Thng nh EU ngy 26-27/10 va qua, sau 10 gi
thng lng, cc lnh o chu u mi t c mt k hoch gip Hy Lp, cu
nguy khu vc ng euro.C th l cc ngn hng t nhn s xa 50% s n cho Hy
Lp, tng ng 100 t euro, chu u s cho Hy Lp vay 100 t t nay n 2014
v ng ra bo lnh 30 t euro. Mt phn tin ny s c dng vo vic tng vn
cho cc ngn hng Hy Lp, c ngha l cc c s ti chnh ca Hy Lp s t di
24

s gim st ca chu u.Cc ngn hng khc ca chu u cng s c cung cp

thm vn, nng mc vn t c t 5% ln 9%, gip i ph tt hn vi khng hong.
Kh nng can thip ca Qu Bnh n Ti chnh chu u (FESF) s c tng
cng, t kh nng cho vay 440 t euro ln thnh 1000 t eurozone.
Vy ti sao cc nc thnh vin khu vc ng tin chung chu u Eurozone
v Lin minh chu u EU phi cu Hy lp, Ireland hay bt c mt nc no khc?
Chng ta hy gi s Hy lp v n v xem nhng tc ng ca n:

Khi Hy lp V N

Hiu ng domino khng

hong v sp ca cc
NH: Cc NH KH u tin
chnh l NH Hy Lp, h s
b chnh ph quc hu ha.
Ngoi ra n cn ko theo
hng lot cc NH Chu
u, M v nhiu nc
Khc ri vo khng hong.

Khi Eurozone
sp : Cc nc
v n ln lt ri
khi Eurozone
t cu chnh mnh
m khng ph
thuc vo nhng
nc khc.

Hiu ng domino v n ca cc quc gia v tng

trng Kinh t: khin nh u t mt lng tin vo ng
tin chung Euro. Mt t tho chy vi quy m ln trn th
trng tri phiu v c phiu cc ngn hng khu vc chu
u l hon ton c th v gy hiu ng sp hng lot
cc Ngn Hng v nn kinh t yu km khc nh nh B
o Nha, v Ty Ban Nha ..
Khi Hy lp v n chc chn s nh hng n nn
kinh t ton cu, tng trng chc chn s cng chm li.
iu ny cng lm cho thu nhp (t thu)cc nc vn ri
vo tnh trng n nn ngy cng gim, trong khi cc chi ph
khc li tng ln: c bit l chi ph li vy huy ng vn
trn th trng ti chnh quc t, ch ph ca cc hp ng
bo him tng, ch s tn dng gim. iu ny chc chn cng
lm cho gi ca tri phiu v li sut cng tng cao tt c
nhng iu cng lm cho tnh trng n cng ca cc nc
khc nh Ytalia, Ireland, Ty ban Nha, B o Nha ti t
hn.cui cng l tuyn b ph s

Khng hong kinh t

ton cu: H thng cc
NH sp , Nhiu nc
tuyn b v n, khi
eurozone tan v qu
cho mt cuc khng
hong kinh t th gii
trong tt c cc linh vc
ti chnh, chng khon,
bo him sn xut

25

Khng hong chnh tr x hi: t

trc ti nay khi nn kinh t sp
lun to ra nhng bt n su
sc trong x hi v nguy c sp
ca cc chnh ph. c bit
nc tuyn b v n. cc cu biu
tnh, bo ng s din ra thng
xuyn, chnh ph s c thay
mi lin tc, ti t hn c th din
ra o chnh

PHN 3: THC TRNG N CNG VIT NAM

V GII PHP
3.1. Thc trng n cng Vit Nam:
3.1.1. N cng tng lin tc trong nhng nm qua, tim n nhiu ri ro:
d hnh dung quy m ca n cng, ngi ta thng o xem khon n ny
bng bao nhiu % so vi Tng sn phm quc ni (GDP). Tuy nhin s liu v n
cng/GDP hin nay vn cha c cng b mt cch r rng.
N cng ca Vit Nam tng lin tc trong nhng nm qua, c bit giai on
t nm 2006 n nm 2010, v tim n trong nhiu ri ro. (Theo bng s liu 3.1
v biu 3.1 )
Nhn xt:
- Theo bng s liu 3.2 v c cu n cng ca Vit Nam nm 2010 th n cng
so vi GDP l 56,6%, trong n chnh ph chim 45,5%GDP v n nc ngoi
chim 11,2% GDP, v hin ti tnh n thi im 01/10/2011, theo s liu t bo
co ca B Ti Chnh va y ban Thng v Quc hi, t l n cng/GDP l 55,6%,
tng ng 1.103 t ng, trong n nc ngoi chim ti 42,2% GDP. Nh vy
c th thy rng n cng trong nhng nm qua ngy cng tng cao.
- Trn l thuyt mc n cng ca Vit Nam vn nm trong ngng cho php,
nhng Vit Nam phi tnh ti phn chm ca tng bng, tc l nhng khon n
ngm bao gm: cc khon n ngn hng, tin tr cp hu tr, cc khon bo him x
hi m chnh ph s phi chi tr cho ngi lao ng hay cc khon m chnh ph s
phi chi tr khi ng ra bo lnh cc khon vay cho nhng ngi c thu nhp thp
m trong tng lai h c th khng c kh nng thanh ton, hay l cc khon t vay
t tr ca cc tng cng ty, tp on nh nc. y l nhng yu t tim n nhiu
ri ro i vi kinh t Vit Nam, nu Vit Nam l l.
- Vic i vay n ca chnh ph l nhm ti tr cho cc khon thm ht ngn
sch Nh nc. Tuy nhin khi tnh ton n chnh ph thng khng lng ha c
nh hng ca yu t lm pht trong chi tiu ca chnh ph, ch tnh cc khon tr
li vay theo li sut danh ngha, nhng thc ra phi tnh theo li sut thc t. Do li
sut danh ngha bng li sut thc t cng vi t l lm pht, nn thm ht ngn
sch b phng i.
- Nhiu nh kinh t cho rng, khi tnh ton n chnh ph cn phi tr i tng
gi tr ti sn ca chnh ph. Tuy nhin, khi tnh ton theo phng php ny thng
gp phi vn l nhng g nn coi l ti sn ca chnh ph v tnh ton gi tr ca
chng nh th no, v d: ng quc l, kho v kh hay chi tiu cho gio dc
26

- Vic tnh ton n cng Vit Nam cha thc hin nguyn tc qun l thng
nht: n nc ngoi, n trong nc, n nc ngoi do doanh nghip v cc a
phng t i vay khin cng tc qun l n phn tn, khng thng nht, chi ph giao
dch, chi ph vay cao, thiu s phi hp trong iu hnh v m.
- Mt khc do Vit Nam thot khi nhm nc ngho, gia nhp nhm nc
c thu nhp trung bnh nn cc khon vay u i ODA cng gim dn m thay vo
l cc khon vay thng mi vi li sut cao hn.
- ng tin ca Vit Nam mt gi kh nhiu so vi tin ca nhng nc chng
ta vay vn nh: Nht, EU lm tng thm gnh nng n cng.
Hu qu: N cng tng cao gy ra nhiu hu qu:
Nu mt quc gia c n nc ngoi ln th quc gia buc phi tng cng
xut khu tr n nc ngoi v do kh nng tiu dng trong nc gim st
Nu n trong nc ln th Chnh ph phi tng thu tr n li vay gy ra tn
tht v ch v phc li x hi. Tng thu cn lm gim u t, km hm s phc
hi ca nn kinh t, lm chm tc tng trng.
Lm pht kh kim ch mc thp.
N cng tng cao cng lm cho nn kinh t b h bc tn nhim, nim tin ca
ngi dn v gii u t b lung lay, khi nn kinh t d tr thnh mc tiu tn
cng ca cc th lc u c quc t.
3.1.2. Vit nam s dng n cng cha tht s hiu qu :
Theo Bo co K hoch pht trin kinh t x hi 2006 2010 ca b K
hoch v u t: Trong nhiu nm nay, cho d thu ngn sch tng ng k nhng
ngn sch nh nc vn ch p ng khong 60% nhu cu chi cn thit ti thiu,
theo bo co v tnh hnh thc hin K hoch pht trin kinh t x hi 2006 2010
ca b K hoch v u t. B ny tha nhn, ngoi mc thm ht ngn sch cao
(t 5 6,9% GDP trong nhng nm gn y), cn c nhng khon chi ngoi ngn
sch m nu a ht vo chi ngn sch th mc bi chi c th ln n trn 10%.
y l mt t l qu cao, dn n ri ro ln v kh nng tr n trong tng lai, b
tha nhn. Thm ht ngn sch gn y c b p bng vay n trong v ngoi
nc ch yu di hnh thc pht hnh tri phiu, nhng b ny tha nhn thc t
m t ngi dm ni ra: Hin nay vn cha r ngun kinh ph chi tr khi cc tri
phiu n hn thanh ton l g?.(Ni lo tr n_ TBKTSG)
Theo quy lut, c vay th phi c tr. tr n gc v li tnh ring cho cc
khon vay ODA u i, ngn sch phi chi 70.250 t ng nm 2010, tng cao so
vi 58.800 t ng nm 2009 v 51.200 t ng nm 2008, theo y ban Ti chnh
ngn sch. Ngun chi tr c th s khng ng lo, nu nhng d n u t cng
27

c cp vn t nhng ngun vay n t hiu qu, v sinh li. Nhng y li l

mt cu chuyn di khc.
Hiu qu ca vn u t ang gim thp n mc bo ng vi ch s ICOR
tng mnh trong giai on 2001-2010 (Hnh 3.2). Nu nh trong giai on 20012006, h s ICOR nm khong 4,5 th n giai on 2007-2008, h s ny t
6,15 nhng nm 2009, ICOR nhy vt ln 8 v n nm 2010, h s ny gim
xung cn 6,2; nhng vn cn cao hn nhiu so vi khuyn co ca WB: i vi
mt nc ang pht trin, h s ICOR mc 3 l u t c hiu qu v nn kinh t
pht trin theo hng bn vng.
Xt theo Hnh 3.3, ta c th thy c, so vi cc nc trong khu vc Chu ,
ICOR ca Vit Nam gn gp i, c ngha l hiu sut u t ch bng mt na cc
nc .
B sung cho h s ICOR cao l nhng khu cng nghip, khu kinh t ven bin,
cng bin, quy hoch hoc khi cng nhng cn dang d v cn lng vn
ln na hon thin. Gn y, khi c hi v vic c 5.000 d n cng Vit
Nam b chm tin theo cng b ca b Ti chnh, chuyn gia kinh t trng ca
ngn hng Th gii ti Vit Nam Martin Rama tr li l ng khng h ngc
nhin. ng gii thch: Ngay c nhng d n ODA do chng ti ti tr cng b
chm l tnh hnh chung vi cc d n Vit Nam.
Cu chuyn Vinashin l mt v d. Hng trm triu USD vn tri phiu quc t
c huy ng v chuyn cho tp on ny vay li. Tuy nhin, vic s dng vn
cha hiu qu, s v n ca Vinashin t ra cu hi v lng tin ca cc nh u
t quc t vi mi trng kinh doanh Vit Nam. Cui thng 11/2010, trang web ca
Bloomberg dn cc ngun tin t cng ty t vn ti chnh Moody c tr s ti M
cho bit, n xu ca Vinashin cng nh hng xu n cc ngn hng Vit Nam.
T trng hp n l ca Vinashin, chng ta thy c l chuyn qun tr n.
N khng phi l xu, nhng cn phi tnh ton n hai yu t: hiu qu t nhng
ng vn vay v h qu lu di nu khng gii quyt c dt im vn n.
Nhng g Hy Lp, Ireland ang tri qua s c th xy ra bt c quc gia no. Ch
n rt d bin thnh con n nu khng kp thi iu chnh li ng x vi cng n
v tm nhn trong u t.
Vi tnh hnh vay n v hiu qu s dng nh vy, khng c g ngc nhin khi
ti cuc hp y ban thng v Quc hi va ri khng t i biu t ra lo ngi
v n cng v an ninh ti chnh ca t nc.

28

3.1.3. Thm ht ngn sch ngy cng tng dn n tnh bn vng ca n cng
b gim st:
Mt xu th rt ng lo ngi l cng trong giai on 2001-2010, thm ht
ngn sch (c trong v ngoi d ton) tng t 4,86%GDP (2005) GDP ln ti
6,9%GDP (2009) v 5,8%GDP (2010). (Theo Hnh 3.4)
Bi chi ca Vit Nam lun mc 5% GDP t nhiu nm gn y. T nm
2007 n nay, do phi kch cu u t nn ngn sch nh nc chi mt lng
tin ln ra lu thng nn tc tng bi chi ngn sch nh nc tng cao hn rt
nhiu so vi giai on trc.
Nm 2008, s din bin phc tp ca cuc khng hong ti chnh ton cu
nh hng ln n s pht trin kinh t, x hi ca nc ta. Trong khi t l tng
trng ca Vit Nam ch t 6,23%, th t l lm pht ln ti 22,97%, t l bi chi
ngn sch mc 4,58% GDP.
ng trc tnh hnh khng hong ti chnh v suy thoi kinh t th gii din
bin ngy cng phc tp, t u nm 2009 Chnh ph a ra gi kch thch kinh
t c tng gi tr gn 10% GDP. V c bn n t c mc tiu ra l ngn
chn c suy gim kinh t tuy nhin n cng mang n h ly: thm ht ngn
sch ca Vit Nam ln n 87,3 nghn t ng (gn 7% so vi GDP).
Nm 2010, thm ht ngn sch bng 5,8% GDP.
Theo cng b gn y nht ca b Ti chnh, so vi tc tng trng GDP
9 thng u nm 2011 l 5.76% th mc thm ht ngn sch 9 thng ch vo khong
2.6% GDP. (Hnh 3.5)
Nh vy, trong khi n cng tng lin tc th ngn sch li ngy cng tr nn
thm ht. iu ny vi phm mt nguyn tc c bn ca qun l n cng bn vng,
l n cng ngy hm nay phi c ti tr bng thng d ngn sch ngy mai.
Hn th, thm ht ngn sch Vit Nam tr thnh kinh nin v mc thm
ht vt xa ngng bo ng 5% theo thng l quc t, khin tnh bn vng
ca n cng cng b gim st. Trong khi , vi nhu cu tip tc u t pht
trin, chc chn n cng ca Vit Nam s cn tng trong nhiu nm ti. C th l,
vi t l tit kim ni a ch khong 27% GDP trong khi mc u t ton x hi
mi nm khong 42% GDP th Chnh ph s phi tip tc i vay rt nhiu (bn cnh
vn u t nc ngoi) b p khon thiu ht u t.
3.1.4. N cng ca Vit Nam xp top cui v tnh minh bch:
Cc con s v khon n cng ca Vit Nam c cng b khng ng nht
gia Quc hi, B Ti chnh, ng thi con s ny cng khng ging vi con s
tnh ton ca th gii. iu ny khin cc chuyn gia nhn nh, hin nhng thng
29

tin v vn n cng ca Vit Nam cha thc s minh bch. Hin nay, B Ti
chnh cng bc u c nhng thng tin cng khai v n cng trn website ca
mnh nhng mi ch dng li n nc ngoi ch cha phi ton b n cng.
Cng theo cc chuyn gia, thng k ti chnh ca Vit Nam hin nay mi ch
tp trung vo n Chnh ph, nn kh c th thy c ton cnh vn ti chnh
cng v n cng v khu vc doanh nghip nh nc rt ln v Chnh ph vn phi
chu trch nhim vi khu vc ny. V y cng l mt trong cc nguyn nhn dn
n nhng s vic nh Vinashin.

3.2. Cc gii php Vit Nam khng ri vo khng hong n cng:

3.2.1. Tng cng nng lc cnh tranh cho nn kinh t:
C rt nhiu bin php ci thin v tng cng nng lc cnh tranh cho
nn kinh t. Tuy nhin nn kinh t Vit Nam l mt nn kinh t c m ln vi
nh hng xut khu v ph thuc ng k vo FDI, m cc nhn t chnh tc ng
n cht lng xut khu v u t ca Vit Nam hin nay l cht lng sn phm;
chi ph sn xut; nng sut lao ng; hng ro thu quan v phi thu quan; vic tun
th cc qui nh v sinh v an ton kim dch
3.2.1.1. Tng nng sut lao ng:
- Ci thin nng sut lao ng trong x hi cn c xem l mc tiu quan trng.
Hin ti, nng sut lao ng ca Vit Nam nhn chung vn kh thp, ch bng
1/5 nng sut trung bnh trong khu vc ASEAN v khong 1/10 mc nng sut
ca Singapore.
- p dng cc thit b my mc c cng ngh mi nht. Hin nay rt nhiu doanh
nghip ca chng ta nhp khu nhng thit b ch l hng ph thi ca cc Nc
Pht trin em v trong nc Sn xut.
- Nng cao kin thc, k nng ngh cho ngi lao ng gp phn nng cao
cht lng ngun nhn lc. Theo thng k, gn lao ng cha tt nghip trung
hc ph thng, 65,3% cha qua o to.
3.2.1.2. Tng cng cht lng v sc cnh tranh ca hng xut khu v mi
trng u t:
tng cng cht lng v sc cnh tranh ca hng ha xut khu v mi
trng u t ca Vit Nam chng ta cn tun th tt cc quy tc, cc tiu chun
quc t ca WTO, ca EUnh cht lng sn phm; hng ro thu quan v phi
thu quan; tun th cc qui nh v sinh v an ton kim dch

30

3.2.2. Nhm gii php lin quan n vic vay v s dng n cng hiu qu:
3.2.2.1. Gim thm ht ngn sch nh nc (NSNN) nhm hn ch vic vay n:
Vic gim thm ht ngn sch khng phi cng nhiu cng tt, m cn phi gim
n mt mc hp l v chp nhn c.

Tng thu ngn sch nh nc:

Mc d c nhiu ngun thu khc tng thu ngn sch nh nc v vic tng
thu khng phi l gii php tt nht, nhng Vit Nam ang l mt quc gia ph
thuc rt nhiu vo thu, th vic lm ny t nhiu vn c c hi.
- Cn xc nh c mc thu sut hp l t c mc thu ti u. V
bin php tng thu bng vic n nh tng thu sut c tc ng hai chiu,
nu tng vi mc hp l, s lm tng ngun thu, nhng khi vt qu gii
hn ca nn kinh t th s lm gim tng ngun thu thu.
- Nng cao hiu qu cng tc thu thu, ng thi nhanh chng hon thin cc

lut thu; bi b nhng khon ph, l ph khng cn ph hp.

- Tng thm tui ngh hu, qua s tng ngun thu t thu (do ngi lao
ng lm vic trong thi gian di).
Gim chi ngn sch nh nc:

C th ni vic ct gim chi tiu gim thm ht ngn sch l mt bin php
khng c ng h nhiu. Tuy nhin, nu phn bit r vic tit kim nhng khon
chi cho nhng hot ng lng ph vi khon chi nhm kch thch hot ng kinh t,
nhm nui dng ngun thu trong tng lai, th y cng l mt trong nhng gii
php cn c quan tm ti.
- B my nhn s khi hnh chnh cn lm vic theo th cng, cng knh,
khng hiu qu, v vy cn tinh gin v cng ngh ho phc v qun l hnh
chnh nhm gim nhn s, ci cch th tc hnh chnh.
- Ch u t vo nhng d n mang tnh ch o, hiu qu nhm to ra nhng
t ph cho s pht trin kinh t x hi, c bit nhng d n cha hoc
khng hiu qu th phi ct gim, thm ch khng u t. R sot v ct b
cc hng mc u t km hiu qu ca DNNN.
- Tng cng qun l cc cng trnh u t ca nh nc thc s c hiu
qu trnh tht thot, lng ph ngun vn.
3.2.2.2. Nng cao hiu qu huy ng vn v s dng vn vay:
Nng cao hiu qu huy ng vn :
- a dng ho c hnh thc vay ln bin php tng mc hp dn ngi
cho vay. Ngoi ra, cn phi trin khai cc bin php khc huy ng ti a
ngun tin trong dn c.
31

- Tng cng qung b, gii thiu tri phiu Chnh ph trn th trng quc t.
Tng tnh thanh khon cho tri phiu bng cch Chnh ph s mua li tri
phiu chnh ph bt c lc no t ngi mua theo thi gi hin ti
- Ngoi ra, kiu hi cng l ngun quan trng c th thu ht tr n nc
ngoi,. Cc chnh sch kiu hi ca Vit Nam cn thng thong ci m, n
gin v hiu qu hn v s lng kiu hi thc t chuyn v cn rt nhiu
khng qua ngn hng v lng kiu hi ny khng qua cc knh chnh thc
nh: xch tay, t nhn, t chc khc...Ngoi ra, cn duy tr v tip tc ko
gim chnh lch gia t gi trong v ngoi ngn hng c th thu ht

ngi nhn kiu hi bn li ngoi t cho ngn hng.

S dng vn hp l, c hiu qu:

3.2.3. Nhm gii php lin quan n vic qun l n cng:

3.2.3.1. Tip tc hon thin cc th ch v xy dng khung php l:
Hon thin Lut qun l n cng:
Cn hon thin v ng b hn cc vn bn php l, tin ti chun mc theo
thng l quc t. Lut Qun l n cng c ban hnh, c hiu lc s dng t
ngy 01 thng 01 nm 2010. Tuy nhin, mt s ni dung ca Lut vn cn chung
chung, cn phi c lm r. Chng hn nh:
- V vic hon tr vn vay, hin cha c quy nh r v vic bn giao n vay
i vi cc i tng vay n, c bit chnh quyn a phng khi ngi
qun l ht nhim k. V d, nhng ngun vn vay c s dng km hiu
qu, v n th liu ngi k nhim c dm nhn vic tr n ny hay khng?
V vy ngh a vo lut quy trch nhim khon n s giao cho ai v
c thc hin nh th no.
- Vic cng b cng khai cc thng tin v tnh hnh vay n. D tho Lut hin
cn chung chung, cha th hin r nhng vn nh thi gian cng b cng
khai, ni dung cc thng tin cng b cng khai gm nhng vn g, chnh
quyn a phng c phi cng b cng khai tnh hnh vay n khng?
- Hc hi kinh nghim qun l v xy dng chnh sch t cc t chc quc t
c uy tn, cc quc gia thnh cng trong cng tc qun l n.
3.2.3.2. m bo an ton, bn vng n:
Thay i cch nh gi v tiu ch kim sot n cng:
- N cng/GDP:
Khng nn nh gi tnh trng n cng hay nng lc thc s ca nn kinh t
ch cn c trn t l n cng/ GDP, m cn nn xem xt cc ch tiu cn cn thng
mi, d tr ngoi hi, d tr ti chnh, qu tch ly tr n.
32

V GDP sau khi tr i phn chi tr s hu v cng vi phn thu nhp t s

hu c gi l Tng thu nhp Quc gia (Gross National Income - GNI) y mi l
khon m mt quc gia c th nhn c trong qu trnh sn xut v s hu. GNI
sau khi c cng thm cc khon thu nhp t chuyn nhng nh kiu hi, cc
khon vin tr khng hon liv c tr i cc khon chi chuyn nhng, lc
khon cn li mi l Thu nhp Quc gia kh dng (National Disposable Income NDI). l khon tin m quc gia c th s dng thc t sau khi b tr cc giao
dch quc t qua li.
Vic so snh n cng ch bng GDP c th gy ng nhn v gy ra tm l
ch quan khi s khc bit gia GDP v GNI ngy cng tng.
- Cch cn i ngn sch:
Nn thay i cch cn i NSNN theo thng l quc t nhm to thun li
khi so snh mc bi chi ca VN vi cc nc, v xc nh mc an ton v n
Chnh ph khi cn i kinh t v m. Vic p dng chun mc quc t s to lng
tin cho cc nh u t nc ngoi v tnh minh bch trong qun l kinh t ca VN.
- Khi tnh ton n cng cn lng ha c nh hng ca yu t lm pht
trong chi tiu, bng cch tnh cc khon tr li vay theo li sut thc t thay

v tnh theo li sut danh ngha. ng thi, chnh ph cn quan tm n cc

khon n tim tng nh tin tr cp hu tr, cc khon bo him x hi
Tng cng qun l gim st chi tiu cng:
- Cn tng cng gim st ng tin ngn sch chi kp thi, ng i tng,
ng mc ch.
- Cn tng bc hon thin h thng lut php v qun l ti chnh - ngn sch
Nh nc. Kt qu kim sot v kim ton phi gn vi trch nhim c nhn,
nhng ngi t bt ph duyt cc khon chi phi chu hon ton trch
nhim v quyt nh ca mnh.

Tng cng cng tc qun l ri ro:

- Xy dng quy ch qun l ri ro: theo di ton din cc ri ro: t gi, li sut,
ti cp vn, thanh khon, tn dng; nghin cu kinh nghim quc t v cch
tnh mc ph bo lnh v cho vay li phn nh mc ri ro tn dng v th
trng ca cc khon vay.
- Theo di cht ch, m bo thanh ton ng hn, xy dng cc ngng an
ton v hn mc vay ph hp.
- nh k bo co Chnh ph, hoc bo co t xut khi d on c nguy c
mt an ton n.

33

3.2.3.3. Cng khai v minh bch ha thng tin v n cng:

- Ngha v n v cc iu khon vay n phi c cng b y cho cng
chng.
- Thng tin v n cng phi bao qut c trong qu kh, hin ti v d tnh cho
tng lai. V d: Nu thng tin v Vinashin c cung cp y v kp
thi, Quc hi, cc phng tin thng tin i chng v nhn dn tham gia
ngay t khi n cha b ln su vo khng hong v ngp nga trong n nn
nh hin nay th tnh hnh chc chn tt p hn nhiu.

KT LUN
S sp ca hai nn kinh t c coi l nhng hnh mu tng trng ca chu u
l nhng bi hc nhn tin i vi tt c cc nc, bt k l giu hay ngho. Mi e
da v khng hong n cng vn ang tip din v c nguy c lan rng ra cc quc
gia khc chu u (B o Nha, Ty Ban Nha, Italia) cng nh nh hng n
cc quc gia khc trn ton th gii, trong c Vit Nam. Nghin cu v n cng,
nhng nguyn nhn, tc ng v nh hng ca n t c c nhng gii
php ph hp trong vic qun l n cng v ngn nga khng hong n cng l vn
cp bch v cn c thc hin ngay.

34

TRCH DN BIU V S LIU

Bng 2.1: thng k GDP v t l Public debt/ GDP (%) ca mt vi quc gia nm 2010
Quc gia

14.582
5.498
305
204
1.407
229
2.051
3.310
2.560

N cng
2010
(million)
13.590
12.112
435
196
845
231
2.440
2.754
2.091

93,2%
220,3%
142,8%
96,2%
60,1%
93%
119%
83,2%
81,7%

2.246

1.797

80%

1.729
5.879

1.196
1.040,6

69,2%
17,7%

GDP 2010
(million)

United States
Japan
Greece
Ireland
Spain
Portugal
Italy
Germany
France
United
Kingdom
India
China

Public debt/
GDP (%)

Public debt/ GDP

China
India
United Kingdom
France
Germany
Italy
Portugal
Spain
Ireland
Greece
Japan
United States

Public debt/ GDP

50

100

150

200

250

Hnh 2.1: so snh t l n/ GDP mt s quc gia nm 2010, ngun: tradingeconomics.com

35

Hnh 2.2: T trng n cng trn

GDP ca Hy Lp

Hnh 2.3. Nhng ch n ln nht

ca Hy Lp

Hnh 2.4. T trng n cng ca Hy Lp theo k hn

Hnh 2.5: Tnh trng thm ht cn cn vng lai ca Hy Lp.

36

Hnh 2.6. Tnh hnh thm ht cn cn thng mi ca Hy Lp

Biu Thm ht ngn sch ca Hy lp t 2007 - 2010

15.4
10.5

9.8
6.4

2007

2008

2009

2010

Hnh 2.7. Tnh trng thm ht ngn sch ca Hy Lp

Hnh 2.8. Li sut tri phiu chnh ph Hy Lp.

37

Hnh 2.9. u t FDI ca Hy Lp

Source: Bank of Greece 2010, revised data regarding 2006-2008

Hnh 2.10. Tc tng trng GDP ca Hy Lp

Hnh 2.11. T l tht nghip Hy Lp

38

Hnh 2.12. T l n cng trn GDP ca Ireland giai on 2000-2010

Hnh 2.13. Cn cn ngn sch Ireland giai on 1998 2010.

Hnh 2.14. Cn cn thng mi Ireland giai on 2009-2011

39

Hnh 2.15. Cn cn vng lai Ireland giai on 2007-2011

Ngun: irelandafternama.worldpress.com
Hnh 2.16. C cu n nc ngoi ca Ireland giai on 2003-2010

Hnh 2.17. Li sut tri phiu chnh ph k hn 10 nm ca Ireland.

40

Hnh 2.18. Ngun vn FDI ca Ireland giai on 1974-2009

Hnh 2.19. Tc tng trng GDP ca Ireland giai on 2007 2011.

Hnh 2.20. T l lm pht ca Ireland giai on 2008 2011

41

Ngun: The Economist Intelligence Unit

Hnh 3.1: Tnh hnh n cng v n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam nm 2001-2010
Bng 3.2: c cu n cng Vit Nam
2010

42

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k

Hnh 3.2: H s ICOR ca Vit Nam giai on 2001-2010

Hnh 3.3: H s ICOR ca Vit Nam v mt s nc Chu .

43

Hnh 3.4: Thm ht ngn sch giai on 2005-2011(d bo)

Hnh 3.5: Tnh hnh thu, chi ngn sch nh nc 9 thng u nm 2011

44

TI LIU THAM KHO

1. PGS.TS.S Nguyn Vn Tin, Ti Chnh Quc T, Nh xut bn Thng k,
2010.
2. LUT QUN L N CNG, S 29/2009/QH12 ngy 17/06/2009
3. NGH NH V NGHIP V QUN L N CNG, S 79/2010/N-CP
ngy 14/07/2010
4. Cc WEBSITE:
http://dantri.com.vn/
http://taichinhchungkhoan.com.vn/
http://tapchicongsan.org/
http://cafef.vn/
http://vietbao.vn/
http://vnbusiness.vn/
http://vneconomy.vn/
http://vnexpress.net/
http://www.doimoi.org/
http://www.gso.gov.vn/
http://www.taichinhvietnam.com/
http://www.tapchitaichinh.vn/
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/
http://www.bankofireland.com/
http://www.debtclock.org/

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