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Submitted by Husnain Afzal mc060401747 Fall 2008.
Virtual University of Pakistan, Defence Road off Raiwind Road, Lahore.
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Electricity Shortage in Pakistan becomes more severe during the year 2005-2006 due to extensive use luxurious appliances of electricity by domestic users.According to the report, in the fiscal year 2005-06, some 2,250MW power was required to operate some 7.7 million electric home appliances i.e. number of refrigerators in the country were 1,100,000 and power required for them was estimated at 110MW, the number of deep freezers were estimated at 200,000 and required power for them stood at 60MW, some 1,000MW power was required to run 2 million air conditioners. These figures are so alarming for Pakistan because in the decade starting from 1991 these appliances are less than a half million. the study was made on the topic shortage of electricity in Pakistan in comparison with air conditioners imported and produced during 2005-2006.in this study the hypothesis were set as, is Electricity shortage in Pakistan is caused by Industrial growth or massive use of Air conditioners by domestic users. However after finding out and analyzing the data that the increased domestic use of air conditioners is the cause of electricity shortage in Pakistan.
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Data Collection Techniques 6.Population and Sample 6.References 11.Introduction to the Problem 1.Problem Statement 4.3.2.Questionnaire Page No.1.Objective 1.3.1.Literature review 3.2.Research Design 6. 6 6 9 9 10 15 16 16 16 17 17 18 19 19 19 19 22 32 33 34 35 Husnain Afzal Page 4 of 37 mc060401747 .Tools of Data Collection 7.Data Collection. Processing and Analysis 8.Conclusion and Recommendations 10.Direction of Relation 4.2.Hypothesis 6.Explanation of the Relation 4.Inventory of Variables 4.4.1.Propositions 5.Significance of the study 2.3.Findings 9.Table of Contents: Topic Acknowledgement 1.Introduction 1.Theoretical Framework 4.
Husnain Afzal Page 5 of 37 mc060401747 .Acknowledgement Thanks to the ALLAH Almighty who gave me courage and willpower to complete the task I have been given.
the World Bank approved loans of $185 million for various reform and infrastructure projects. and the World Bank. Furthermore. In 2005. both major donor organizations to Pakistan.1. Pakistan’s overall economy review 2. Introduction: 1.1. have acknowledged the favorable performance and progress in Pakistan’s structural reforms. Pakistan’s overall economy review (2004-2006) Pakistan's economy has recovered from years of sluggishness. Background of the Study: This study was made to demonstrate the effects of massive installation and usage of air conditioners in Pakistan during 2005-2006. higher housing rents and food item shortages.6 percent by the end of FY 2005/2006. The International Monetary Fund (IMF). In fiscal year (FY) 2004/2005 (ending in June).1 percent) in 2004/2005 was attributed to escalating oil prices. but relief coordinators Husnain Afzal Page 6 of 37 mc060401747 . The United States pledged $510 million for rebuilding Pakistani infrastructure. The introduction phase consists of three parts. and Pakistan’s over all energy usage. the United States began the first installments of a $3 billion aid package.The devastating earthquake that stuck Pakistan in October 2005 destroyed lives and caused considerable damage to the country’s infrastructure. However. Pakistan’s energy overview 3. 1. international aid inflows in the aftermath of the earthquake have served to bolster Pakistan’s economy. And the third portion consists of introduction of load shedding problem in Pakistan due to increase in the usage of air conditioners. in addition to the nearly $850 million loaned to the country in 2005. In 2004. The strategy worked.Before going to details here is the some text which gives you the overview of the Pakistan’s economy.6 percent. with growth experienced in the agriculture. the IMF approved a fresh loan of nearly $250 million as part of its overall $1. caused primarily to droughts. industry and service sectors. with inflation decreasing to 7. but have stressed even greater reform in the public institutions and the public energy sector where progress has been slow. In an effort to decrease inflation. country in 2005. the central bank of Pakistan announced that it would raise interest rates.5 billion aid package to Pakistan. which will continue through 2010. In 2006. High inflation (9. 1. the majority of the damage occurred in rural areas of the country and had minimal impact on the economy. Pakistan achieved gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 8.4 percent and in 2005/2006 the country had GDP growth of 6.
generating capacity needs to grow by 50 percent by 2010 in order to meet expected demand. the combination of rising oil consumption and flat oil production in Pakistan has led to rising oil imports from Middle East exporters. As a result. Pakistan’s electricity demand is rising rapidly. creating new bank branches and increasing the number of airline destinations in both countries. In recent years. In addition. Pakistan currently consumes all of its domestic natural gas production. the combination of rising oil consumption and flat oil production in Pakistan has led to rising oil imports from Middle East exporters. Table evaluating Pakistan’s Energy Supply. According to Pakistani government estimates. but without higher production Pakistan will need to become a natural gas importer. amounting to about 50 percent of total energy consumption. Natural gas accounts for the largest share of Pakistan’s energy use.69% 1. In addition. Sector Oil Natural Gas Hydroelectricity Nuclear Coal LPG Energy Supply 29. As a result. Pakistan is exploring several pipeline and LNG import options to meet the expected growth in natural gas demand.30% 15. Pakistan’s energy overview In recent years.estimate that Pakistan will need billions of dollars and up to ten years to fully rebuild. They also agreed to continue confidence building measures.20% 7. amounting to about 50 percent of total energy consumption. Pakistan and India decided to extend aid to one another after the earthquake. Pakistan’s electricity demand is rising rapidly. generating capacity needs to grow by 50 percent by 2010 in order to meet expected demand. 2. but without higher production Pakistan will need to become a natural gas importer. Pakistan is exploring several pipeline and LNG import options to meet the expected growth in natural gas demand.40% 50.60% 0. the lack of refining capacity leaves Pakistan heavily dependent on petroleum product imports. which include the notification of missile testing. the lack of refining capacity leaves Pakistan heavily dependent on petroleum product imports.40% Husnain Afzal Page 7 of 37 mc060401747 . According to Pakistani government estimates. Pakistan currently consumes all of its domestic natural gas production. Natural gas accounts for the largest share of Pakistan’s energy use.
50. Husnain Afzal Page 8 of 37 mc060401747 .40% Oil.Diagram evaluating Pakistan’s Energy Supply. balance of 13. 0. out of which Hydel Power is only 6.Because in these days the overall GDP growth was very high near about 9% per year.20% LPG. This crisis appears insurmountable in the near or even long-term future.500 MW. The problem of massive load shedding in Pakistan was properly introduced in 20042005. Introduction of load shedding problem in Pakistan due to increase in the usage of air conditioners: Pakistan is facing a huge electric power crisis today. These home appliances not only include the necessity objects like refrigerator but also the Luxury objects like Air conditioners. Banks introduces new schemes in which peoples were provided home appliances on lease.000 MW is thermal either using Natural Gas or Furnace Oil. 7. Small capacity of 450 MW is Nuclear and only 150 MW is through coal. Thus resulting an increase in production and exports of home appliances. Although most of the air conditioners were made in Pakistan but 60% of the raw material used in air conditioners was imported from different countries of the world.40% Hydroelectricity. unless proper understanding and correct implementation is undertaken on priority basis.69% Oil Natural Gas Hydroelectricity Nuclear Coal LPG Natural Gas. Due to these reasons Pakistan was hit badly by two basic problems such as budget deficit and shortage of electricity.500 MW.60% Nuclear. 29.30% 3. In these years the business progress was very well and banks industry grows at a vigorous speed. Coal. At present total power production capacity in the country is about 19. 1. 15.
Significance of the study: The research work on load shedding will help us to demonstrate the true reasons of load shedding problem. Whenever we Husnain Afzal Page 9 of 37 mc060401747 . From different resources it is also confirmed that during 2002-2006 Pakistan’s industry sector was also at boom so without testing the hypothesis we cannot say that the Load shedding problem is due to usage of Air conditioners. 4. The study will also help us to evaluate how much growth is needed in electricity production sector to cease the load shedding problem. 1.But the Load shedding Problem becomes more severe. Objectives of my research: The main objective of my research is to find out either the consumption of air conditioners in Pakistan is responsible for Load shedding or the growth in industrial sector in Pakistan is responsible for load shedding. In our study we will also compare Pakistan’s energy production consumption ratio with other countries of the world. The province wise electriicty production and consumption and a brief note on line losses of electriicty due to bad power supply system of Pakistan. 3. It also helps us to find out the total energy consumption and production of Pakistan. 1 .Now a days the consumption of Air conditioners in Pakistan is slow comparing to 20052006. Here we also have to note down that the ratio of growth in consumption of electriicty to production of electriicty. or no installation of new power plants is responsible for the problem. To find out the past trends of electriicty consumption and present and future situations is also an objective of my research.
power. and an absolute lack of transparency. lack of skilled human resources. excessive discretionary powers often incompatible with the level of the official. The gaps between demand and supply in these sectors are alarming. Inefficient public expenditure process. The countries that have surged ahead. Literature Review: Almost two years ago the then WAPDA chairman who happens to be a caretaker minister admitted that WAPDA cannot meet the current demand for electricity. The plans needs to put in place urgently. On an average the generator at my office is on for three hours. and transport sectors. Infrastructure is essential for sustained growth and competitiveness both in the local and international markets. Our work is not much affected but overall the company’s operating expenses have increased. and developing export industries. are characterized by high level of human capital accumulation where the educated labor force has raised the level of output and the rate of growth over a sustained period of time. However. Even after that very few power plants have been set up to meet the demand for electricity. the Government’s economic policy concentrated attention on developing an economic infrastructure. Pakistan is suffering from shortage of infrastructure in the water. They are cheap and quick methods for producing electricity. we have come across many who would willingly embrace new practices if only the scourge of corruption could be lifted from their lives. I come from the software industry which has been badly hit by the present power crisis. corruption and nepotism restrict Pakistan far behind in development according to recently announced World Bank report.2. irrigation. After the founding of Pakistani State in 1947. The policy makers of Pakistan have so far failed to understand one thing. It’s surprising that such a senior and experienced person took so long to find this out. windmill energy etc. On top of that the government which talked about Pakistan’s supposedly booming economy failed to understand the gravity of the situation. Despite the pervasive pessimism that is undoubtedly felt. Pakistan is a very blessed country because solar energy is available in most cities all year round similarly wind energy is readily available in the coastal areas. This was one of the many promises he failed to keep. higher cost of basic input. Combination of these factors with weak accountability ensures that economic backwardness get entrenched into the entire fabric of society. an over regulated economy. achieving selfsufficiency in food. During the second government of Benazir some independent power plants were set up. General Musharraf (R) after becoming Chief Executive used to talk about building dams especially Kalabagh Dam. Without adequate Husnain Afzal Page 10 of 37 mc060401747 . on the other hand. These energy sources if tapped can be of great help in reducing the current demand supply gap. these critical shortages would continue to undermine the efforts to improve socio-economic indicators and to reduce poverty. Had they not been setup then we would have had a much bigger crisis with life almost coming to a standstill. an intrusive and over sized public sector. provide the optimal environment for opportunities of corruption restricting the economic development in the country. They do talk about making dams and setting up nuclear power plants but why do they not understand the importance and benefits of alternate energy sources such as solar.
programming and weak implementation capacity. imbalanced contracts. the transport sector inefficiencies are costing the economy between 4 to 5 percent of GDP each year indicating the need for massive investment in roads. air and ports as indicated in the World Bank report.000 megawatts by the year 2010 (equivalent to about three Tarbela dams) and 30. monitoring and feedback missing in the projects and the average cost of every project increases more than double due to several gaps. Local rates despite appearing to be “competitive” in a regional context are in fact unworkable . and forecasts indicate that available resources are depleting rapidly. Public agencies take on too many projects in their development programs and end up delivering little. There are implementation. Given the current disparity between market rates and actual product costs.The per capita energy consumption in Pakistan is amongst the lowest in the world and a lack of adequate energy resources precludes industrial growth affecting all sectors of the economy. There were large gaps have been observed between the actual and allocated funds for infrastructure development projects. and what they do deliver is often determined by political priorities. Costs of materials and equipment inputs in Pakistan were found to be about 200 percent higher as compared to other countries in the region. Husnain Afzal Page 11 of 37 mc060401747 . possibly leading to a state of water scarcity in the next two decades. it appears difficult that the large infrastructure projects can be implemented on-time and within budget unless some drastic reforms are undertaken. plant and equipment and construction materials.700 MW by the year 2020. Public agencies were taking too much time and delivery was too little. rail. Much of the water infrastructure is in poor repair and Pakistan has to invest almost Rs 60 billion per year in new large dams and related infrastructure over the next five year. while contractors’ rates in Pakistan were more or less the same as those prevailing in the region. Similarly. Given the paucity of human resources and materials. Pakistan should lesson from international case studies on the development of the construction industry and the literature reviews clearly show that a holistic long-term planning and a detailed strategy must be evolved with a clear vision and commitment towards developing the industry. Pakistan will face severe power shortages of approximately 6. Pakistan is on the list of the most water stressed countries in the world. In the energy sector. precluding adequate profit margins and allowing better salaries to professionals and workers. the very sustainability of Pakistan as an independent nation may be at stake as shortages could lead to increased social discontent and disharmony amongst the federation and the provinces. demand-supply gaps will widen when the Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF) program is implemented. Majority of the developmental projects were based on political priorities. Out of the four broad thematic areas of business environment.irrigation resources. The delays in payment. the poor planning and management skills. Delays in project implementation reflect poor planning. The contractors and consultants are not being paid the right cost for products and services. and the inability to timely attract ‘substitute’ external implementation resources. The infrastructure projects in Pakistan cost twice as much and take three times longer than planned time there are few number of known firms in Pakistan and majority of big projects were given to them.most contractors also contend that rates are low. human resources (HR). HR and business environment were identified as having the maximum number of constraints. unless rates are increased. inefficiencies and corruption in the system force contractors to incur additional financial and economic costs resulting in squeezing the already poor margins in the industry. power and transport infrastructure.
distribution cost (including loses). It can be inferred that in the recent past. a deficit of Rs 300-350 Billion cannot be sustained. On top of this the fixed cost of a thermal plant works out to be about Rs 3 per unit. The foremost immediate action which can give some relief is the conservation of energy. WAPDA is delaying payments to IPPs and also to the oil companies. If WAPDA has to balance its books it would require a subsidy of Rs 425 Billion. According to WAPDA/IPP agreement. the deficiency is being filled through furnace oil. gas. Recently in Lahore super Husnain Afzal Page 12 of 37 mc060401747 . which amounts to the total deficit of Rs 425 Billion. balance of 13. This crisis appears insurmountable in the near or even long-term future. which amount upto Rs 49/. Indigenous fuels like coal. out of which Hydel Power is only 6. Way Forward: In the short-term. only furnace oil was used as fuel for about 9000 MW generation. and utilize scarce external assistance more efficiently. The final solution however lies in depending on the hydroelectric renewable energy.000 per ton. add to it the transmission. The difference between WAPDA tariff and the furnace oil electricity is Rs17 per kWh. hoardings and neon signs. Thus. the shortages have to be somehow met. In the absence of extremely heavy subsidy.per kg. but the deficit cannot change substantially. but in actual fact much less gas is being made available.and this process may take as long as a decade or more of sustained effort.” It is estimated that the country consumes at least 25 billion units of electricity produced annually through furnace oil.500 MW. It is very important to understand the consequence of the prevailing situation. medium-term and long-term actions to overcome the problem of energy shortage. but unfortunately the narrow minded bickering on construction of dams has persuaded the planners to find an easy solution. Current price of furnace oil is about Rs 49. On an average one kg of furnace oil produces 3. Therefore. atomic will have to be developed and developed quickly. This deficit is somewhat reduced due to cheap power produced through hydel energy and natural gas. Since the shortage or high price of electricity has severe detrimental effect on all sectors of economy. the private power producers will charge WAPDA the actual fuel cost for which they have a direct contract with PSO. and it is also not feasible to increase the power tariff very much.The country is facing a huge electric power crisis today.000 MW is thermal either using Natural Gas or Furnace Oil. The result is that IPPs are now producing much less electricity than their capacity. Therefore the power crisis is far greater than what is being perceived. At present total power production capacity in the country is about 19.8 kWh of electricity. Obviously. it should be obvious that the country cannot afford electricity produced through oil. To any planner. Small capacity of 450 MW is Nuclear and only 150 MW is through coal. As we all know that WAPDA tariff charged from the consumers is about Rs 5 per unit (kWh). the government does not have resources to pay such a huge subsidy. the cost of furnace oil for generating one unit of electricity is about Rs 13. The government has already announced certain measures like shutting down power on billboards. unless bulk of electricity is produced through hydel energy. contain its unproductive expenditure. which we cannot afford any more.500 MW. “the total cost of such electricity works out to approximately Rs 22 per kWh. unless proper understanding and correct implementation is undertaken on priority basis. Although gas is to be provided for 5800 MW to various thermal plants. one unit (kWh) of the electricity produced by all thermal plants using furnace oil is Rs 16 per unit. The Government needs to make serious efforts to strengthen revenue mobilization.The production cost of furnace oil electricity is Rs 16 per unit. the situation calls for concerted short-term.
with the present coalition partnership in the centre. Currently the country loses 29 billion units of electricity annually due to heavy losses in the system. 70 to 80 percent plant factor is quite feasible. A suggestion that cities are divided in zones. Vast deposits of coal exist at Thar. For thermal plants only Coal and Natural Gas should be used. Improving the plant factor of the existing plants is far more economical then setting up new plants. Mid and Long Term: The oil prices are not going to come down drastically. but their development has been put on the back burner. without which where would we have been today. again for some unknown reasons. the deficit will further increase. At present the country has about 28 Trillion cft of recoverable gas available. but it is inconceivable why the mining of this coal has not yet started. If losses are reduced by even 5 percent. the large ones can only be built on the Indus River. The money saved by using gas instead of furnace oil. the existing recoverable gas will be sufficient for the next 15 years. One of the reasons for low plant factor is that the funds are not made available for the purchase of oil. the energy saving measures is not being implemented. The will of the government leaders is needed. naib nazims should visit the areas and try to convince and negotiate with the people. which can be conveniently reduced. Shops use excessive lights. and WAPDA owned thermal plants are averaging about 50 percent plant factor. this would require better maintenance of such plants. If these plants will operate on furnace oil. the yearly consumption is about 1. even without India. The gas purchase agreement with Iran be finalised immediately. A higher plant factor on these power stations can provide 20 to 30 percent more energy. therefore all efforts are needed to stay away from oil. It was due to the clear vision of the leadership that the Tarbela Dam was constructed. and the market on these zones be closed on different days. the nazims. Experts from various provinces can get together and put forward a solution for mitigating the objections. None of these projects have yet Husnain Afzal Page 13 of 37 mc060401747 . shopkeepers etc requesting them to cooperate in the overall interests. but solutions for such objections can be satisfactorily found. although new plants will still be needed. Similar visionary approach is needed and needed now. There are a number of other attractive runs of the river hydel projects which are being offered to the Private Sector. can also save peak time energy usage. which will circumvent the present shortages to a certain extent. The government has announced that immediately 1200 MW of additional plants will be setup. A large power station using this gas can be installed at Gwadar. For hydroelectric projects. There is a number of new gas fields discovered. matters can be resolved. but in order to make additional gas available. 500 KV transmission lines can bring the power to load centres. should be invested in developing new gas fields which have already been discovered. solution for this factor will help in short term increase in energy production. which means that even if gas consumption is increased. In order to keep the temperature down air conditioners are installed behind these sets. Therefore the additional thermal generation should be based on gas. All efforts must be genuinely applied to reduce the losses.size televisions have been installed on important traffic points.2 Trillion cft. but highly needed water storage can also be a by-product. which means that they are not being used to their potential level. Some legitimate objections on the environment and social impacts of large dams are there. where not only hydroelectricity can be produced. the gas pressure and its transmission system will have to be enhanced. the saving will be over 7 Billion rupees. In spite of government directions. In order to implement conservation measures. At present the IPPs. In addition agreement with Kazakistan is persued diligently for the import of gas.
started. Under the present circumstances. It is good to know that the work on Neelum Jhelum Hydro Project (900MW) has started by WAPDA. The policy orientation needs a drastic modification and indigenous resource like hydel energy.The current power crisis is grossly due to very high oil prices. neither the indigenous coal mining has started. and the country has to prepare itself at least for the next several years to somehow cope with it. again it is strange that the hydel projects in the private sector are not being encouraged. a rational and market oriented policy has to be adopted. since no immediate cheaper alternate solutions are available. because the tariff is still not finalised. investments in the existing as well as new gas field have been lacking. hopefully the present government will immediately look into this. Husnain Afzal Page 14 of 37 mc060401747 . It has been a big set back that new Hydel Projects have not been undertaken. With the huge losses being accumulated in thermal plants.
Problem Statement: “Do the increased consumption and production of Air conditioners in Pakistan is responsible for severe load shedding in Pakistan or other factors like growth in industry and no installation of electricity capacities were responsible for that.3.” Husnain Afzal Page 15 of 37 mc060401747 .
And in last industrial growth positively influence the electriicty supply.1. Inventory of Variables: Dependent Variable: Electricity Independent variables Air conditioners New electricity capacities installed Industrial growth Air Conditioner Electricity Shortage NEC Installed Industrial Growth 4. No installation of new electriicty capacities negatively influences the electricity supply.2. 4. Theoretical Framework: After analyzing the Pakistan’s energy shortages and their different reasons for these shortages the following variables were identified. Direction of Relations: In above relations usage of air conditioners negatively affects electriicty supply.4. Husnain Afzal Page 16 of 37 mc060401747 .
No installation of new electriicty capacities negatively influences the electriicty supply. If the income levels in the country are high then people will ultimately use luxury items. Husnain Afzal Page 17 of 37 mc060401747 .4. on the other hand heavy industry also needs much electriicty to generate production in this scenario we can say that if during 2005-2006 new industries open then this will also create shortage however this could be decided in the findings portion of the report that either industrial growth or no installation of electriicty capacities or massive usage of electriicty appliances is responsible for this problem. The industrial growth during 2005-2006 positively influences the electriicty supply. 4. Inventory of propositions in a sequential order: Massive domestic usage of air conditioners due to high income level negatively affects electriicty supply.4. The Increased usage of air conditioners in homes will ultimately affects the electriicty supply in the country because it is very difficult to control production process in the country. Explanation of established relationships among variables.3.
3. 2. Null Hypothesis: H0: Growth in industrial sector is responsible for shortage of electriicty in Pakistan. Hypothesis: 1. Null Hypothesis: H0: No installation of new electricity capacities is responsible for electriicty shortage in Pakistan. 3. Alternative Hypothesis: H1: Growth in industrial sector is not responsible for the shortage of electriicty in Pakistan.5. 2. Null Hypothesis: H0: Massive usage of air conditioners in the country is responsible for the electriicty shortage in the country. Husnain Afzal Page 18 of 37 mc060401747 . Alternative Hypothesis: H1: Massive usage of air conditioners in the country is not responsible for electriicty shortage in the country. 1. Alternative Hypothesis: H1: No installation of new electricity capacities is not responsible for electricity shortage in Pakistan.
Data Collection Techniques: As my research is based on historic data. For the purpose of data collection a request was sent to PEPCO to provide data regarding Electriicty. 6.(Pakistan Electric Power Company. ) These companies are responsible for electric supply in pakistan.So the process of data collection involves two steps first step was to collect data from two historic sources such as different government sources and the second source is private institutions such as newspapers.and the second step was to send questionnaire to different energy suppliars of the country.These all companies are headed by PEPCO. 6. Husnain Afzal Page 19 of 37 mc060401747 .these resources are contacted through PEPCO to provide necessary information.2. A list of these companies is given below.3. Research Design: 6.1. Population and Sample: As my research is totally based on historic data so for data collection the population is all power supply companies of Pakistan.6. Classification of research: In my research the purpose of study would be descriptive and also quantitative because substantial information is known about situation and hand on how this particular issue have been solved in past. The research was of quantitative nature and the quantitative data was collected through various sources. Such as data regarding shortage of electriicty in pakistan during 2005-2006.
the analysis data was also colleced from different news papers.s and phone numbers are given in references. HESCO. 14. MEPCO. 5. IESCO. 1. To collect data these companies are contacted through PEPCO for better cooperation. Electricity Supply Companies.4. GENSCO. 6. 7. 13. KESC. PESCO. QESCO. 8. GEPCO. 6. The responsible members of different electric supply companies are contacted through e-mails and Telephones. FESCO. The staff of PEPCO also forwards me a report made by Engineer Tahir basharat cheema the chairman of PEPCO. 3.5. Forms of data collected: Thus data collected from different sources are of two typs one type is completely filled questionnaire and the other type is different reports on Electriicty supply and shortage. LESCO. Tools of Data Collection: The data collection tools were Filling up a questionnaire in which the details for electriicty consumption and production were asked from the staff members of thse companies. 4.Thus the data collected from these sources is divded into two froms one is domestic consumption of electricity and the other one is commercial consumption of electriicty during 2005-2006. which was presented to the Prime minister. TESCO.The data thus collected is and managed so that results can be identified and also the trends of electriicty consumption during different seasons in Pakistan. 6. The e-mail id. 12. NTDC. 11. GENCO II. 9. websites and other sources. 10. There are two Husnain Afzal Page 20 of 37 mc060401747 . 2. GENCO I.No.
objectives of data one is based on past situation and one is based on present and future situations. Husnain Afzal Page 21 of 37 mc060401747 .
(Source: World Energy Data. Husnain Afzal Page 22 of 37 mc060401747 . Then the data was arranged and presented in a graphical form so that any one can analyze the situation of electriicty shortage in Pakistan.) As it is clearly evident from the figure that consumption of electricity was increasing day by day. Now looking at the data which was collected from different electriicty supply companies of Pakistan. Primary data was collected in the form of filled questionnaire and the secondary data was collected in the form of reports of different journalists and other government officials. Data Collection. Here is the picture of Forecast of Pakistan’s Energy Consumption and production.Data Processing and analysis The Primary and secondary data collected from different sources thus managed.7. The data collected in the form of filled questionnaire is of primary nature thus it is directly analyzed by using different statistical tools such as coefficient of variation and other measures of location and measures of dispersion.
Commercial Supply It includes power supply to offices and establishments such as shops. It is the work equivalent to 1000 watts (Joules per second) over one hour time. petrol pumps. A watt is defined as the rate of doing one joule (J) of work in one second. Industrial Supply Husnain Afzal Page 23 of 37 mc060401747 . Common units of power are multiple of the watt.Before going to detailed studies here are some Concepts and Definitions CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS: WATT: Watt is a unit of power. cinemas. restaurants. offices of associations and consultants etc.6x103 Joules 3. hospitals etc. Government approved educational institutions. Work = One Kilowatt hour (Kwh) = One Million watt hour (Mwh) = One Giga watt hour (Gwh) = Power x Time 3.6x109 Joules Domestic Supply It includes power supply to residences. private hospitals. approved charitable institutions. places of worships.6x106 Joules 3. These are as under: One Watt (W) One kilowatt (KW) One Megawatt (MW) One Gigawatt (GW) = = = = 01 J/S 103 J/S 106 J/S 109 J/S KILOWATT HOUR: Kilowatt hour is a precise measure of energy and work. hotels.
4 1.086 2.1 Husnain Afzal Page 24 of 37 mc060401747 .0 1. Statistics of Number of Consumers of Electricity by Branch in Pakistan All Nos.6 14. Public Lighting Public Lighting means illuminating public lamps. i.795 100. % 17.0 10.841 100.7 1.838 2.718 100.8 1.0 13.6 1.0 10. % 13.1 2004-05 5 Nos.9 1.3 0. Bulk Supply “Bulk Supply” for the purpose of this tariff means a supply given in a bulk at one point to consumers having their own distribution facilities.3 0.4 0.1 2003-04 4 Nos.1 14. % 16. own grid station etc.7 15.888 2.476 245 223 13 83.1 2005-06 6 7 Nos. Maximum Demand “Maximum Demand” means the highest demand obtained in any month measured over successive periods each of 30 minutes duration. Beside that Electricity consumed in auxiliaries and system losses are referred as other Consumption.005 1. % 15. % 12. and includes supply for lighting of tube well chamber.0 13.2 0.7 15.783 2.2 1.248 100.001 224 175 09 81.192 100.313 230 201 11 82. Agricultural Supply “Agricultural Supply” means a supply for lift Irrigation Pumps and/or Tube wells intended solely for irrigation or reclamation of agricultural land or forests.2 1.2 0.5 1.It means power supply for bona fide industrial purposes in factories including the supply required for the offices and for normal working of the industry and also for water pumps and tube wells other than those meant for irrigation or reclamation of agriculture land.379 234 204 13 83.0 14.e.840 220 174 09 81.4 1. are in (000) Branch 1 Total Domestic Commercial Industrial Agriculture Others 1998-99 2 Nos.1 1999-00 3 Nos.4 13.
0 43.1 5.2 3.7 3.0 11.5 2005-06 Units 10 70.241 30.3 0.2 28.4 32.8 6.972 4.0 19.620 225 42.586 19.6 6.298 27.720 4.5 1999-00 Units 4 46.5 2003-04 Units 6 59.669 271 % 7 100.658 6.0 42.576 7.7 32.7.8 Husnain Afzal Page 25 of 37 mc060401747 .4 5.441 7.756 100.FIG.5 5.381 12.738 6.1 9.0 46.762 5.8 0.080 20.358 21.5 11.6 3.5 2004-05 Units 8 63.316 25.3 11.0 33.3 12.338 11.601 4.394 3.9 4.542 239 % 5 100.2 0.949 353 % 11 100.0 43.544 13.7 6.485 2.048 5.924 5.5 30.730 22.988 306 % 9 100.1 Partition of consumers of electriicty by branch Industrial 1% Agriculture 1% Others 0% Domestic Commercial 14% Commercial Industrial Agriculture Others Domestic 84% Statistics of Electricity Consumption in MKH by Branch Branch 1 Total Domestic Commercial Industrial Agriculture Public Lighting Bulk Supply & others 1998-99 Units % 2 45.268 2.561 6.1 0.3 0.
344 Sindh 4 14.FIG.720 4.599 3.562 411 1.187 NWFP 5 8.048 Punjab 3 43.919 401 90 207 3.873 1.132 3 86 Husnain Afzal Page 26 of 37 mc060401747 .949 353 4.276 5.241 30.668 170 2.953 15.618 18.383 451 18 431 Balochistan 6 3.448 5.730 22.441 7.252 698 162 1.2 Electricity consumption in MKH by branch Bulk Supply & others 6% 0% Lighting 0% Public 1% Agriculture 11% Domestic 43% Domestic Commercial Industrial Agriculture Public Lighting Industrial 32% Bulk Supply Commercial 7% & others Electricity Consumption by Province and Branch (2005-06) All nos are in (000) Branch 1 Total Domestic Commercial Industrial Agricultural Public lighting Bulk supply and Others Pakistan 2 70.7.256 5.884 2.
669 6.620 5.576 3.116 17.486 45.742 5.762 4.230 3.042 12.885 12.086 6.316 63.941 2.824 13.480 14.937 5.561 22.256 Balochistan 6 1.786 1.128 34.080 4.670 19.205 14.730 Industrial 5 11.924 13.696 7.243 6.638 6.298 70.976 12.485 25.544 3.381 2.704 1.542 6.180 38.174 2.638 25.385 42.684 18.091 2.358 59.726 1.528 7.144 1.658 3.684 2.112 45.822 3.962 37.378 2.394 27.241 2.583 17.331 3.720 Commercial 4 2.400 11.848 5.241 Punjab 3 25.919 Year-wise Electricity Consumption by Branch MKH Year 1 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 Total 2 32.972 19.033 36.756 46.645 8.448 NWFP 5 6.252 6.479 43.230 7.620 4.949 Public Lighting 7 262 310 287 298 325 378 390 387 225 239 271 306 353 Bulk Supply & Others 8 2.392 13.062 10.267 3.268 21.975 12.338 3.864 2.591 43.486 45.582 3.772 6.738 20.573 13.134 15.581 10.586 4.618 Sindh 4 10.978 3.754 13.048 Husnain Afzal Page 27 of 37 mc060401747 .687 1.358 59.658 13.619 5.246 40.Year-wise Electricity Consumption by Province Year 1 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 Pakistan 2 43.601 30.246 38.245 27.066 2.794 6.458 13.298 70.988 7.316 63.241 Domestic 3 10.690 12.756 46.665 1.441 Agriculture 6 5.121 25.306 12.334 2.112 45.
3 2004-05 30.000 10.000 0 Domestic Commercial Industrial Agriculture Public 2004-05 Bulk Supply 2004-05 Graph Showing Electricity Consumption by Branch during 2005-2006 FIG.000 25.4 2005-06 35.Graph Showing Electricity Consumption by Branch during 2004-2005 FIG.000 10.000 5.7.000 20.000 5.000 30.000 15.7. 2005-06 Husnain Afzal Page 28 of 37 mc060401747 .000 25.000 0 Total Domestic Commercial Industrial 2005-06 Agriculture Public Lit.000 20.000 15.
Year Units Generated MKW System Losses Units 3 14.7.000 20.521 % 4 24.Graph Showing Electricity Consumption by Branch during 1999-2000 FIG.402 66.379 96.453 17.607 88.603 22.3 1 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2 59.179 17.117 21.562 83.6 25.915 65.172 15.5 1999-00 25.000 0 Total Domestic Commercial Industrial 1999-00 1999-00 Agriculture Public The above tables and graphs show some facts of Pakistan’s power energy data.3 27. Now we will look at the electricity generation graph of Pakistan.000 10.6 25.3 25.894 62.478 Husnain Afzal Page 29 of 37 mc060401747 .664 21.5 27.000 5.000 15.4 24.
One can safely assume that a large number of such contraptions would be hooked up to the system in addition to the equipment bought during 2000-2008.e.Graph of System Losses FIG. 20% of energy made by Pakistan is lost in lines during delivery of electricity to destinations.6 2005-06 System Losses 19% Units Generated System Losses Units Generated 81% We can clearly see the difference between consumption of electricity during 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 and 1999-2000.7. It was estimated that four million ACs of both the window and the split versions (in addition to package and centrally air conditioned buildings) were added between 2000-08 or a load of 1600 MW (with due diversity) to the system.6 illustrates the story.000 MKW. Thereafter. Importers and manufacturers of air conditioners had planned to sell upwards of a million ACs during 2006-06. Here is a point to note that during year 2005-2006 system losses or line losses are about 20% which is alarming. Analysis: According to The Director General (Energy Management & Conservation) PEPCO. And if we Husnain Afzal Page 30 of 37 mc060401747 . another 750.000 pieces of such equipment was installed in Pakistan during the next financial year.1 to 7. That how electricity consumption increases from 46.358 MKW to almost 60. FIG. A market survey revealed that people wanting to add three ACs during 2008 would now buy two and spend the rest of the money on procurement of a generator. i. 2005-08 add to a phenomenal two million pieces or an addition of 4000 MW of load or at least a usage effect equaling 800 MW at 20 per cent diversely factor. It was found that half a million ACs mainly of the split version was sold and added to the power system during fiscal 2005-06. The sale figures for the three years viz.7. 2005-06. but due to the on-going power crises they could only purvey 750.000 such appliances. In developed countries the line losses percentage is only 3%.
we safely come up with the figure of about 4000 MW as specifically AC load on the system. This 4000 MW of AC load simply vanished from the system demand after the mercury dropped by 7-8°C on late September 5. only 2000 MW. the power system has also to arrange for expensive peaking generation without many returns. The system remained so till September 08 where-after it has slowly built up at a rate of 800-900 MW a day. As such. and these have to be energy labeled with only efficient models allowed to be imported and manufactured locally. Energy labelling is unheard of and Pakistan remains a dumping ground for gas guzzling and inefficient electrical equipment. We must use ACs most frugally. The present requirement of cooling is being managed by double the required load viz.quantify such use. Pakistan cannot afford such extravagant usage of ACs and that all such usages have to necessarily result in great increase in utility revenues. Husnain Afzal Page 31 of 37 mc060401747 . besides being unduly loaded by a non-productive AC load of 4000 MW.
Husnain Afzal Page 32 of 37 mc060401747 . So we accept the first null hypothesis that Massive usage of air conditioners in the country is responsible for the electriicty shortage in the country. And we reject all other hypothesis. But Domestic consumption is increased from 5% per year to 30% which is alarming. Because industrial growth is only 7% during 2005-2006 raised from 3.8.5% from previous year. As it is evident from graphs that domestic consumption of electricity is raised about 30% during 2005-2006. The other variables of our research such as industrial growth and consumption of electricity in industry has almost no impact on shortage. Findings From above analysis it is found that shortage of electricity in Pakistan is caused by only frequent use of Air Conditioners in by domestic consumers only.
A strong media campaign should also be introduced on TV. Home users use less energy so that industrial can benefit from it. Conclusion & Recommendations The problem of energy shortage can be solved by imposing more duties on luxurious goods such as Air Conditioners. Husnain Afzal Page 33 of 37 mc060401747 .9. (Low cost plant includes solar energy and wind energy systems theses systems are expensive at purchasing but after installation these are the free sources of energy). Installation of low cost new energy generation plants is very necessary. Channels to create awareness in the society to decrease energy consumption. Line losses should be decreased to 3% currently it is 20% Line loses in shape of theft of electricity should also be decreased by making new and harder laws. Electricity saver appliances should be introduced in the country.
org Husnain Afzal Page 34 of 37 mc060401747 .doe.gov Daily Times Daily News Contemporary issues in Pakistani Economy by DR.eia.worldbank. M. Aslam(2005-2006 Edition) Major issues in Pakistan’s Economy BY. References: World Energy Data: www. A.10.Hamid Shahid(2005-2008 Edition) Statistical bureau of Pakistan PEPCO (Pakistan Electric Power Company) www.
Electricity Statistics Table: Electricity Received from PEPCO: In Table Format Electricity Lost In Line Losses: In Table Format Electricity Used by Branch (All available In Table Format records) Electricity Shortage by branch wise(All available records) In Table Format No.E-Mail:_______________________________________________________________ 5. of users by branch wise(All available records) In Table Format Husnain Afzal Page 35 of 37 mc060401747 .Type of Owner ship: Public___ Private___ (Please tick mark).11. 6.Name and Address of Electric Supply Company:____________________________ _______________________________________________________________________ 3. Questionnaire: 1.Tele PhoneNos:_________________________________________________________ 4.
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Pakistan.com Ph: 052-8116425 Cell: 0333-8691306 Husnain Afzal Page 37 of 37 mc060401747 . E-mail: Husnain_afzal86@hotmail.A (VU) Sialkot.Husnain Afzal M.B.