Estimated Steel Production 20082008-2013

www.analySEEs.co.uk 23 April 2008

Introduction
Weakening Economy Political Unrest

Economical Power Shift

i.e. Iraq War, USA Election, Tibet protest

Economic Overview
Growth Rate Of Real GDP Effects Of Crude and Gold Prices In The International Scenario Global Trade Imbalances Due To Moderate Oil Prices Monetary Policy Formulations Over The Globe

Global Steel Demand
Demand grow by 6,8% a year over 2007 and 2008 doubledouble-digit demand from BRIC BRIC : leading growth Average 11% Till 2013

Global Steel Demand
(million tonnes; 2004 = forecast)
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 04 (F)
Source: IISI

7% pa 2% pa

Chinese Steel Demand
(million tonnes: 2004 = forecast)
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

27% pa

1% pa

Source: IISI

Production Forecast 56 Countries
BRIC The original Tigers, South Korea and Taiwan ASEAN Countries EMEA

Future Steel Making Process
Currently produced in the blast furnace Highly energy and capital intensive The process uses coke that requires special coals Coke making process has significant environmental concern

Forecast
Global steel consumption will increase to over 1.8 billion tonnes by 2013, a rise of 71% on 2007’s level Demand for steel in North America and Western Europe is expected to decline before picking up from the third quarter of 2009

Forecast Continued

Forecast
Demand for steel remains strong in emerging economies Asia, led by China, will continue as the world’s largest consumer of steel China’s global consumption rising from 32% in 2006 to 35% in 2013

Forecast Continued

Forecast
Tighter capital markets over the next two years could lead to further consolidation in the steel industry as smaller, highly leveraged firms become vulnerable to acquisition by larger financially stronger players

Forecast Continued

Forecast
The focus regions of the 2008 report are the Balkans and Africa. Of these countries, Morocco is expected to show the fastest growth Egypt is likely to consolidate its position as Africa’s largest steel consumer, with finished steel demand expected to exceed 7.5 million tonnes in 2013

Source of Information
Steel Business Briefing Ltd www.steelbb.com International Iron and Steel Institute www.worldsteel.org