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The Real Deals (22-12-2011)

The Real Deals (22-12-2011)

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Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 090/11/2009

THE REAL DEALS – Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate
From zero to coveted homes
As recently as a year ago, there was only public housing in Punggol. In 2008, the government had moved an executive condominium (EC) site in Punggol from the 1H08 Reserve List of the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme to the 2H08 Confirmed List. It was slated to become the new town’s first private development (albeit partially, due to eligibility and resale restrictions on ECs for the first 10 years), but no offers were received owing to dismal market conditions then. The site made it back to the market in 1H10 and attracted five bids. It was successfully sold for $308 psf ppr in June that year. Now, Prive EC sits on that parcel of land. In the subsequent 18 months, seven more sites in Punggol were sold to private developers and more than 5,000 homes would be built on them by 2015. The eight sites made up one-sixth of the total land supply released by the government over the past two years. For comparison, the number of public housing flats is estimated to reach 35,000 by 2015, from about 21,000 units currently. The demand for new homes in Punggol has been strong. Of the eight sites sold, three have been launched. Two are ECs, namely, Prive and Riverparc Residence. Both are fully sold, fetching an average selling price of $700 psf. The third is the first private condo in Punggol, A Treasure Trove. It sold nearly 80% of its units in the first month of launch for $900 psf on average and is now about 90% sold. Up next are Watertown and an EC, Twin Waterfalls. We understand that Watertown will offer 1,001 residential units, almost 50% more than that projected, based on the National Development Ministry’s estimate. It is part of a mixed project that will see the first major retail mall in Punggol, the six-storey, 365,000-sq-ft Waterway Point. The mall, targeted to be completed in 2015, will boast a first-of-its-kind cinema with an estimated 1,000 seating capacity and the first ever suburban late-night shopping.
Development sites sold in Punggol

22 December 2011

4. Watertown (Mixed) $752.8 psf Feb 2011 3. A Treasure Trove $406.3 psf Dec 2010 8. New site $354.4 psf Dec 11

5. New site (EC) $270.1 psf Jul 2011

1. Prive (EC) $308 psf Jun 2010

1H2012 GLS Confirmed List (EC)

7. New site $334.6 psf Nov 2011

2. Riverparc Residence (EC) $237 psf Sep 2010

6. New site $323 psf Sep 2011 Source: onemap.sg, URA, Kim Eng Kim Eng Research is a subsidiary of Malayan Banking Berhad


  HE  EAL  EALS Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate




Tender results for development sites in Punggol Date Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Location Punggol Field / Punggol Road Punggol Drive / Punggol East Punggol Central / Punggol Walk Punggol Central / Punggol Walk Punggol Way / Punggol Field Punggol Field Walk Punggol Central / Edgedale Plains Punggol Central / Punggol Place Type EC EC Residential Mixed EC Residential Residential Residential Total GFA Tender price (sq ft) ($m) ($psf) 726,483 223.7 308.0 574,582 136.2 237.0 893,401 363.0 406.3 1,356,232 1,021.0 752.8 812,602 219.5 270.1 524,956 169.6 323.0 654,110 218.9 334.6 581,882 206.2 354.4 6,124,248 Developer NTUC / Chip Eng Seng Qingdao Sim Lian Frasers Centrepoint Frasers Centrepoint / Keong Hong Capital Development / ZACD Qingjian Wee Hur Units 680 504 882 685 720 550 610 540 5,171

Source: URA

Thus far, home prices in Punggol have been relatively stable. EC units at Prive and Riverparc Residence have sold at an average price of $700 psf. Interestingly, despite the difference in their locations which was reflected in their tender prices ($308 psf by NTUC/Chip Eng Seng for Prive and $237 psf by Qingdao for Riverparc Residence, or a difference of more than 20%), both projects sold at the same price range of $700 psf. On the other hand, private units at A Treasure Trove have achieved an average price of $900 psf, implying a premium of nearly 30% over EC units. We understand that the market has been anticipating the launch of Watertown because of its integration with Waterway Point, a retail mall which is, in turn, linked to the Punggol MRT Station. The project is also located along the Punggol Waterway, dubbed the Venice of Punggol, and features a 4.2km-long waterway that offers pockets of greenery, promenades, cycling tracks and water sports where residents can kayak, canoe, fly kites, jog and cycle, or enjoy alfresco dining and the scenic views at the rooftop gardens. We expect units to be launched at a price range of $1,000-1,200 psf, despite the latest round of property curbs as it should be popular with the HDB upgraders and first-time Singaporean buyers.
Transaction prices for projects in Punggol
1,200 1,000 A Treasure Trove 800 600 400 200 08-Dec-10 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 08-Dec-10 Source: URA 27-Jan-11 18-Mar-11 07-May-11 26-Jun-11 15-Aug-11 04-Oct-11 23-Nov-11 Riverparc Residence (EC) Prive (EC) 27-Jan-11 18-Mar-11 07-May-11 26-Jun-11 15-Aug-11 04-Oct-11 23-Nov-11

22 December 2011

Page 2 of 7

  HE  EAL  EALS Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate




Upcoming VVIP Launches The Hillier (District 23)
A development nestled in Hilllview Avenue, a private residential enclave overlooking Bukit Timah Hill and the Bukit Timah Nature Reserve. Features SOHO-concept residences sited above a retail podium.
*Shhh... if you have not yet been invited, you are probably not a VVIP. Wait for the public launch.

22 December 2011
Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com

Property Price Indices 
Index SRPI Overall (Oct 11) URA PPI (3Q11) HDB Resale (3Q11)   Level 167.9 205.7 187.2 Change +0.9% +1.3% +3.8%

Government Land Sales (GLS)
Recently Awarded Sites Jalan Loyang Besar / Pasir Ris Rise (36.3k sqm, 355 units) Awarded to Hoi Hup, Sunway and Straits Construction for $141m ($361 psf ppr) Pasir Ris Drive 3 / Pasir Ris Link, EC (39.0k sqm, 390 units) Awarded to Ho Lee / United Engineers for $122m ($291 psf ppr) Flora Drive (41.9k sqm, 415 units) Awarded to Koh Brothers for $163m ($361.2 psf ppr) Yishun Central 7 / Canberra Drive, EC (67.9k sqm, 725 units) Awarded to MCC Land for $213.8m ($292.6 psf ppr) Punggol Central / Edgedale Plains (60.8k sqm, 610 units) Awarded to Qingjian for $218.9m ($334.6 psf ppr) Yishun Ave 1 / Miltonia Close (35.5k sqm, 355 units) Awarded to TG Dev for $138.9m ($363.6 psf ppr) Chestnut Ave (39.3k sqm, 380 units) Awarded to SP Setia for $180m ($425.8 psf ppr) Alexandra Road (48.8k sqm, 545 units) Awarded to CDL / Hong Leong for $396m ($754.4 psf ppr) Chestnut Ave / Almond Ave (12.9k sqm, 35 landed units) Awarded to SCB Terraform for $70.8m ($510.4 psf ppr) Punggol Central / Punggol Place (54.1k sqm, 540 units) Awarded to Wee Hur for $206.2m ($354.4 psf ppr) Confirmed List (Recently Open for Tender) Mount Vernon (72.8k sqm, 785 units) Tender closing on 10 January 2012 Jalan Lempeng (68.4k sqm, 685 units) Tender closing on 12 January 2012 Kovan Road / Simon Road (35.7k sqm, 360 units) Tender closing on 18 January 2012 Reserve List (Recently Open for Tender) Jalan Jurong Kechil (14.2k sqm, 240 units) Buangkok Dr / Sengkang Central (55k sqm, 495 units) Tanah Merah Kechil Rd (39.2k sqm, 470 units) Stirling Road A (44.5k sqm, 445 units) Stirling Road B (44.1 sqm, 445 units) Elias Rd / Pasir Ris Dr 3 (32.7k sqm, 295 units) Hillview Ave (35.4k sqm, 405 units) Sengkang Square (64.4k sqm, 710 units) Upper Serangoon View/ Upper Serangoon Road, EC (43.3k sqm, 420 units)
Source: HDB, URA

Transactions in Punggol
Project 8 @ Mount Sophia Kew Green Rocca Balestier Blossoms @ Woodleigh One Amber Braddell View Mount Sophia Suites The Anchorage Thomson V Two Estella Gardens Suites Twenty-Two Estella Gardens The Madeira Sherwood Tower Yishun Emerald The Trevose The Metropolitan Melville Park The Quartz Northvale Compass Heights Burlington Square The Sail @ Marina Bay Casa Merah East Meadows Yong Siak View
Source: URA

Size (sq m) 144 281 103 111 53 145 46 164 42 89 94 117 126 145 92 119 67 99 108 117 144 77 80 114 124 91

Price ($psf) 1535 655 956 1142 1665 737 1767 1076 1504 786 1061 750 728 801 765 1249 1525 746 929 778 835 1291 1840 1050 809 1159

Planning area Rochor Bedok Novena Toa Payoh Marine Parade Toa Payoh Rochor Queenstown Bishan Pasir Ris Bedok Pasir Ris Bukit Batok Bukit Timah Yishun Novena Bukit Merah Tampines Sengkang Choa Chu Kang Sengkang Rochor Downtown Core Bedok Bedok Bukit Merah

Property Stocks
Name Price CapitaLand 2.28 CityDev 8.96 Ho Bee 1.01 HPL 1.74 KepLand 2.25 SC Global 0.995 SingLand 5.54 UOL 4.08 Wheelock 1.51 Wing Tai 0.95 N.A. = No Coverage Disc/ Prem to RNAV RNAV NTA/share* 4.01 -43% 3.18 13 -31% 7.31 2.53 -60% 2.22 4.39 -60% 2.7 5.08 -56% 2.78 3.49 -71% 1.6 9.82 -44% 10.74 N.A. N.A. 6.43 N.A. N.A. 2.35 2.85 -67% 2.49 *As at latest reported Disc/ Prem to NTA/share -28% 23% -55% -36% -19% -38% -48% -37% -36% -62%

22 December 2011

Page 3 of 7

  HE  EAL  EALS Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate




Primary Market
Total no. of units Units sold todate Takeup rate (%) 77.8 91.7 13.4 26.7 Units sold (Nov) 11 6 31 7 46 9 70 30 19 11 10 6 6 5 477 27 22 11 11 7 6 367 12 73 36 35 23 18 15 13 12 9 7 7 28 17 10 9 6 Median ($psf) 4,334 1,350 3,263 1,677 1,628 2,158 1,267 1,100 1,362 1,544 1,104 1,189 1,115 1,257 1,359 690 1,502 682 1,006 1,327 1,474 895 888 744 1,348 916 1,269 506 993 922 1,427 1,420 1,057 1,322 707 1,041 660 866 838

22 December 2011
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com

Secondary Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf Oct’11 1,432 1,757 1,179 1,040 1,031 782 910 748 742 $psf Nov’11 1,379 1,812 1,175 975 1,042 745 895 772 764 MoM % Change -3.7 3.1 -0.3 -6.2 1.1 -4.8 -1.7 3.2 2.9

City & Southwest (1-8) Scott Square 338 263 Ascentia Sky 373 342 Orchard/ Tanglin/ Holland (9-10) The Scotts Tower 231 31 D'Leedon 1715 458 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11, 21)

Suites at Bukit Timah 71 46 64.8 Suites @ Newton 67 9 13.4 Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) D'Weave 71 70 98.6 Central Imperial 63 30 47.6 Regent Residences 180 144 80.0 Studio 8 28 11 39.3 Vacanza @ East 473 387 81.8 Suites 28 64 41 64.1 Rezi 26 106 94 88.7 Le Regal 88 24 27.3 East Coast (15-16) Bedok Residences 583 477 81.8 ( C) Austville Residences 540 394 73.0 ( C)Seawind The 222 58 26.1 Riverparc Residence 504 504 100.0 ( C) Waterfront Isle 561 513 91.4 Parc Bleu 55 45 81.8 The Shore 408 393 96.3 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) The Palette 892 367 41.1 Waterview 696 584 83.9 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Arc at Tampines (EC) 574 450 78.4 Cardiff Residence 163 36 22.1 The Minton 1145 809 70.7 Thomson Grand 361 183 50.7 Charlton Residences 21 18 85.7 Terrasse 414 331 80.0 A Treasure Trove 882 785 89.0 Centro Residences 329 250 76.0 Bliss @ Kovan 140 63 45.0 The Luxurie 622 242 38.9 Suites @ Paya Lebar 99 47 47.5 West (22-24) Blossom Residences 602 471 78.2 ( C) North (25-28) Woodhaven 337 253 75.1 The Canopy (EC) 406 393 96.8 Miltonia Residences 410 326 79.5 Eight Courtyards (EC) 654 533 81.5 Source: URA

Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Sep’11 5.3 4.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.5 $psf pm Oct’11 5.6 4.5 3.5 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.6 MoM % Change 5.7 2.3 6.1 0.0 3.2 -3.6 7.4 3.4 4.0

Top 5 Resale Transactions by $psf
Project Paterson Suites Ardmore Park Four Seasons Park The Sail @ Marina Bay Marina Bay Residences Source: URA Tenure Freehold Freehold Freehold 99 Yrs (fm 2002) 99 Yrs (fm 2005) District 9 10 10 1 1 $psf 3,002 2,923 2,850 2,589 2,576

Bottom 5 Resale Transactions by $psf
Project Lakeside Tower Eastwood Centre Bluwaters Faber Garden Condominium Woodgrove Condominium Source: URA Tenure 99 Yr (fm 1975) 99 Yr (fm 1995) 946 Yrs (fm 1938) Freehold 99 Yrs (fm 1997) District 22 16 17 20 25 $psf 456 512 571 596 604


22 December 2011

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  HE  EAL  EALS Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate




Developer District 6 9 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 23 23 Sentosa

22 December 2011
Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com

City Dev

Landbank South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) NV Residences (Pasir Ris) Pasir Ris Grove, parcel 3 + state land (Pasir Ris) Pasir Ris Drive 8, parcels 4 + 5 (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Road GLS (Bartley Road) Choa Chu kang GLS (EC) (Choa Chu Kang Drive) Segar Road GLS (EC) (Segar Road) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) Sengkang GLS site (Sengkang Square) The Lakeside Residences (Lakeside Drive) Total Unsold Units The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) D’leedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Town Centre Site (Bedok Central) Bishan GLS site (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Bedok Reservoir (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) Project at West Coast Rd (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) RiverBay (Mar Thoma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thoma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Total Unsold Units Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units

Tenure 99yr Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr

Unsold Units 119 122 203 178 22 166 27 525 1,517 605 148 560 490 131 207 5,019 69 620 295 307 234 94 380 9 2,008 345 39 1,257 55 150 106 509 140 2,601 110 357 467 34 640 674 189 80 248 147 87 21 772 75 84 159


1 2 4 4 4 4 19 22

99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr


3 9 10 10 15 16 20 26

99yr Freehold 99yr Freehold Freehold 99yr 99yr Freehold

Ho Bee

Sentosa Sentosa

99yr 99yr


2 16

Freehold 99yr


2 5 9 12 12 21

99yr Freehold 999yr 999yr 999yr Freehold


9 10

Freehold Freehold


22 December 2011

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  HE  EAL  EALS Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate




Developer Guocoland District 2 10 26

22 December 2011
Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com

Landbank Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah/Choon Guan) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences The Vermont on Cairnhill Paterson Suites Paterson Suites II St Thomas Walk Watercove Villes Nim Road Luxus Hills Phase 5-25 Total Unsold Units

Tenure 99yr 99yr Freehold

Unsold Units 500 424 37 961 95 61 24 88 221 80 232 746 1,547 249 202 48 121 380 161 1 949 691 121 2,923 31 64 38 42 157 36 287 655 70 65 580 106 821 35 208 23 50 31 347 18,954

Bt Sembawang

4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28

Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold

Frasers Centrepoint

9 15 16 18 18 19 19 19 19 27

StarHub Centre Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Pasir Ris GLS site (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Upper Serangoon Road) Esparina Residences (Sengkang) Watertown (Punggol Central) Punggol GLS site Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units Ascentia Sky (Redhill) HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Total Unsold Units

99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr

Wing Tai

3 9 9 10 10 11 23

99yr Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr

MCL Land

10 15 17 19

NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Pasir Ris GLS site (Jalan Loyang Besar) Terrasse (Hougang Ave 2) Total Unsold Units

Freehold Freehold 99yr 99yr

SC Global

9 9 9 10 Sentosa

The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) The Ardmore (Ardmore Road) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Grand Total

Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr

Source: HDB, URA 

22 December 2011

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  HE  EAL  EALS Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate
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