Tindak Malaysia: Together we can make a difference

1

An assessment of the electoral & financial outlook for Malaysia. What the numbers tell us and what conclusions to draw from it.

2

5 THINGS: 1. BN cannot lose, 2. They are in trouble. Solution: push Malaysia into bankruptcy, 3. IMF come in to clean up. Blame IMF for the mess, 4. New Rat Race System starts. 5. You don·t have to believe a word that is said!
3

RATIONALE BEHIND TINDAKMALAYSIA.COM Questions: 1. Where are we? 2. How did we get here? 3. Where are we headed? 4. How can we make it better?

4

A group of caring Malaysians carrying out community service through voter education and PACABA Training. We support the Election Commission fulfil its mandate to conduct elections in a free and fair manner (Elections Act S 5 (1a)) such that it will enjoy public confidence. (Federal Constitution Article 114)

Our training is based on the election laws and is politically-neutral. We are pro-Rakyat and accept any party that is voted in freely and fairly. We believe that ³Power Corrupts, And Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely´. We take the position that there must be checks and balances and that no one party should hold too much power.

‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

Mobile phone to silent mode, Introduction, Stickers, Outline of Programme and duration, Expected results.

7

Tindak Malaysia strategy: ‡ Understand the principles of psychological warfare, ‡ How is it used against us? ‡ Develop self-defense measures. Nations move in 50 to 60-year cycles! When politicians hold power for too long, they become arrogant, bullies and corrupt! The ABC¶s of politics.
8

Middle east: Their goal is to amass fortunes through all means, legal and illegal, live a life of luxury, and preserve their dynasty in any way that they can (such as pampered intelligence and military services, cadres of corrupt cronies, discriminatory governance to divide the citizenry, and costly foreign support). The result is that these countries have been financially plundered, with an inhospitable business climate, an underdeveloped private sector and little economic and social progress. http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/M L22Ak02.html
9

Politics

Economics

Social

10

Politics

Social

Economics

BN CANNOT LOSE, ALTHOUGH BN WANTS THE PEOPLE TO BELIEVE THEY CAN LOSE!
11

STUDY HISTORY !
Year
1959 1964 1969 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1995 1999 2004 2008
Alliance Party/BN* Seats % seats % vote Seats Opposition % seats % vote Total seats

74 89 95 135 130 132 148 127 162 148 198 140

71.15 85.58 65.97 87.66 84.42 85.71 83.62 70.55 84.38 76.68 90.41 62.61

51.7 58.5 49.3 60.7 57.2 60.5 55.8 53.4 65.2 56.5 63.9 52.2

30 15 49 19 24 22 29 53 30 45 21 82

28.85 14.42 34.03 12.34 15.58 14.29 16.38 29.45 15.62 23.32 9.59 36.93

48.3 41.5 50.7 39.3 42.8 39.5 41.5 46.6 34.8 43.5 36.1 47.8

104 104 144 154 154 154 177 180 192 193 219 222
12

BN  140 MPs (63.1%)  8 states  50.27 % of votes

PR  82 MPs (36.9%)  5 states  46.75 % of votes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysian_general_election,_2008

Putra Jaya (BN) Smallest 6608 voters

Kapar (PKR) Largest 112,224 voters

Voters ratio = 1:17
Even the 2nd smallest seat, Lawas, has 15,717, which is 2.4 times larger!

Selangor Constituencies
Same DUN but separated by land and sea

1515

N45 SELAT KELANG
Same DUN but separated by land and sea

16

Four evenly matched districts

Redrawing of boundaries to give three-district advantage to Party 2

All districts produce an even voting ratio for each party Party 1
SOURCE: http://www.comprofessor.com/2010/10/gerrymandering-through-corporate.html

District A,B,C votes 90% for Party 2 District D votes 90% for Party 1 Party 2
17

One Voter One Vote ?
Question: Do the Chinese & Indians decide for a simple majority?

18

Total voter population: 10,922,140 Total Parliament seats: 222 Simple majority: 112 seats DESIGN: 1st 112 seats: 1.85 million. 2008, BN contested 139 seats to win 112 seats. 2.08 million votes required (19%). Do you agree that 2 million can decide for 28 million?
19

Total voter population 10,922,140

DESIGN: 1st 112 seats: 1.85 million out of 10.9 million. Actually, contest 1st 139 seats to secure 112 wins: 2.08 million votes required. Can we allow 2 million to decide for 28 million?
Parliament 222 seats. Simple majority = 112 seats
20

The smallest 112 seats come from: Sabah, incl Labuan: 26, Sarawak: 25, Johor: 13, Perak: 12, Pahang: 8, (Peninsular Malaysia: 61) For simple majority rule, rural Bumis decide. Only for 2/3 majority, the non-Bumis have a say! Seats can be increased after Mar 2011 but need 2/3 majority. BN can even create 200 Putrajayas!

21

Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 1 - 28

22

Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 29 - 56

23

Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 57 - 84

24

Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 85 - 112

25

Point No. 1: BN cannot lose. Is that the reason we have such blatant corruption and inequality? Is it a coincidence that the poorest groups with the worst infrastructure, education and health-care facilities, are the king-makers? Is it a coincidence that the natives are driven off their land to join the urban poor?

26

It¶s good to belong to the Ruling Class!

States with the highest incidence of poverty: Sabah & Sarawak
27

Results of not paying attention: Ruling Party enjoyed 2/3 majority for more than 50 years since 1957. Consequences: 700 Constitutional amendments since 1957. Compare with US, 234 years old: Only 27 Constitutional amendments. Answer: You have to prevent a 2/3 majority to avoid too much power in the hands of the Ruling Party.
28

21-06-1962, Constitutional Amendment: Article 116: Safeguard to maintain voter difference to less than 15% removed. Clauses (3), (4) and (5): Clauses were repealed by Act 14/1962, sub-section 22 (c)
Source: (page 197) http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_protect/---protrav/--ilo_aids/documents/legaldocument/wcms_125966.pdf
29

BEFORE AMENDMENT ³(3) Constituencies shall be allocated to the several States in such manner that the electoral quota of each State is as nearly equal to the electoral quota of the Federation as it can be without causing undue disparity between the population quota of that State and the population quota of the Federation.
30

(4) Each State shall be divided into constituencies in such manner that each constituency contains a number of electors as nearly equal to the electoral quota of the State as may be after making due allowance for the distribution of the different communities and for differences in density of population and the means of communication; but the allowance so made shall not increase or reduce the number of electors in any constituency to a number differing from the electoral quota by more than fifteen per cent.
31

(5) In this Article² (a) ³electoral quota´ means the number obtained by dividing the number of electors in the Federation or a State by the total number of constituencies or, as the case may be, the number of constituencies in that State; (b) ³population quota´ means the number obtained by dividing the population of the Federation or of a State by the total number of constituencies or, as the case may be, the number of constituencies in that State;
32

and for the purposes of this Article the number of electors shall be taken to be as shown on the current electoral rolls and the population as counted at the most recent census.´.

Clauses 3, 4 and 5 were removed by a Constitutional amendment on 21.02.1962

33

The electorate in almost all seats will have to be within 5% of 76,000 voters Boundary Commission for England launched on 13/09/11 for consultation on new constituency boundaries in England
34

Basis UK proposed Electorate system -2015 USA -2002 England current system - 2010 Australia 2010 UK current system -2010 Canada 2008 Population Electorate Electorate Electorate Population

Variation in seat % of seats Smallest seat Largest seat (as within 5% of sizes % (as % of % of average national limit (standard average) (mean?) deviation) 2.2 4.4 8.6 9.1 11.1 21.3 24.8 29 76 77 64 32 26 65 7 13 105 140 153 132 157 166 154 163 228 99 90 44 67 37 22 3 6

% of seats within 10% of national limit (mean?) 99.5 96 79 87 69 40 25 17

Jamaica -2007 Electorate France -2007 Population Malaysia current system Electorate

http://www.lewisbaston.co.uk/2011/01/britain%E2%80%99s-unequally-sized-constituencies-are-a-non-existent-problem/

36

Politics

Economics

Social

37

Politics

Social They start looking for alternatives!
38

Economics

CIVIL UNREST: When the poor are hungry and angry, they have nothing left to lose !

39

EGYPT

40

41

42

Do we want this? No!
43

WE GO BANKRUPT BY 2013!

44

BONDS: Thompson Reuters Eikon GLC¶s: Annual Accounts DOMESTIC DEBT: Treasury Report
CAUTION: There may be some double-counting due to obscurity of some of the figures in the Treasury Report. GLC & Domestic Debt Analysis: Credit to Lee Wee Tak
45

NATIONAL DEBT ± Govt Bonds USD 179.8 B

13.01.2011

46

Screenshot of Thomson Reuters Eikon

47

NATIONAL DEBT ± GLC¶s
USD Million

GLC: Govtlinked cos

USD 19.5 Billion
48

DOMESTIC DEBT
31st Dec

In 3 ½ years, domestic debt has gone up by 70%!

USD 125.9 Billion

USD 136 B
49

TOTAL DEBT ± USD 331.4 B TOTAL DEBT/GDP: 139.36% Debt/GDP: Ireland Dec 2010: 96% Greece May 2010: 134%
50

TOTAL DEBT ± USD 331.4 B WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM?

51

MOST MONEY COME FROM THE STATES BUT THEY GET LESS THAN GLCs ! !

Treasury Report

52

CAN IT GET WORSE? Debt/GDP: 139%, annual deficit: 4 ± 5%

Operating expenditure eats up all revenue & pensions depend on current income. 53 How can the Govt afford giving out RM 500 per head? What¶s the source?

RM 200 vouchers for 1.3 million students: RM 260 million, One-off RM 100 aid each to 5.3 million students: RM 530 million. RM 500 for 3.4 million households: RM 1.8 billion, Nowadays, projects go by the billions instead of millions. Is that the reason why things are so expensive?
54

Bureaucracy as % of Population
16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00%

1.4 M Civil Servants, 3 M RELA = 4.4 M

How long can this go on? Problem: Low productivity, poor work attitude, corrupt, entitlement-mentality. Does a change of govt solve these problems?

55

WHAT ARE THE PIIGS ?

P: Portugal I: Ireland I: Italy G: Greece S: Spain
56

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PIIGS DEFAULT ? ‡ THEY GET SLAUGHTERED ! ‡ Bond yields shoot sky-high ‡ Is that Malaysia¶s fate ?

57

‡

GREECE Bond-buyers have to take a hair-cut !

In late October 2011, euro-zone governments called on Greece to secure a 50% write-down on the debt held by private creditors. Must charge very high interest to compensate ± more than 100%! Source: Wallstreet Journal
58

BUT MALAYSIA IS DIFFERENT !

‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

We have oil palm! We have oil & gas! We have electronics & electricals! We have high savings rate ± EPF!

59

‡ In 2009 Robert Kuok had to sell off his sugar monopoly to some politicallylinked businessmen. How does it hurt us? ‡ Robert Kuok invested in the world¶s largest sugar mill in Australia. Our international sugar price went up.
60

SUGAR PRICE
Domestic price goes up 40% although world price dropped ! Why ?

International sugar price goes down

61

Oil palm: Najib asked China to increase oil palm import from Malaysia but no deal. ‡ Why? ‡ Robert Kuok¶s Arowana Cooking Oil controls 40% of China domestic oil palm refining ‡ Then Robert Kuok decided to invest USD 10 B in Indonesia oil palm. That¶s our lowest-cost competitor! Will it hurt us?
62

WE STILL HAVE OIL & GAS. ‡ Oil & gas: We become net importer by 2014, 2015! ‡ Govt demanding more and more money from Petronas. ‡ Petronas tried to stop the outflow. ‡ So previous CEO forced out & replaced with Najib nominee. ‡ Ex-CEO now working for Singapore.
63

WHAT ABOUT ELECTRONICS & ELECTRICALS? This depends on foreign countries. Europe is in serious trouble. So¶s the US. Even China is having a housing bubble and if her exports are hit for her biggest market (Europe), she will import less from Malaysia. ‡ Outlook does not look good.
64

‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

NOTHING CAN HAPPEN TO CHINA ! Property crashing - Chinese ghost town:
http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/1928-China-Crash-Coming-China-That-Urban-EmptyFeeling?highlight=china+ghost+cities

65

 The soft landing view foresees Chinese

central technocrats responding timely with well-calibrated fiscal and monetary policies that maintain GDP growth of around 8%, the annual rate Beijing must achieve to absorb new graduates into the work force and keep unemployment manageable.
66

 The hard landing scenario predicts that an

uncontrolled implosion of the property market will unleash waves of wealth destruction, a credit crunch and consumption collapse that no amount of government intervention will be able to meaningfully forestall.  Southeast Asia will inevitably be among the worst hit by a soft or hard landing in China. http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/ML 22Ae02.html
67

OUR GOOD OLD EPF WILL SAVE US ! ‡ Malaysia cannot borrow cheaply from international market as we are in the same situation as Greece. ‡ So they tap into EPF for cheap funding. ‡ By now 60% is gone! ‡ That¶s our retirement savings!
Don¶t feel bad. Govts do this as a matter of routine when they are in trouble. http://malaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/EPF-in68 Trouble2.pdf

IMPLICATIONS: INTERNATIONAL BAILOUT

Greece outlook: Look at Greece¶s situation ‡ Expulsion from EU, ‡ New currency with massive devaluation, ‡ Job loss, ‡ Drop in wages, ‡ Sale of state assets, ‡ Cost-cutting ± pensions, subsidies, civil service, welfare aid, govt services,
69

LOCAL IMPLICATIONS

‡ Petronas, banks and insurance cos forced to buy low interest Govt bonds, ‡ Equivalent loans from international market will exceed 10% interest,
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/civilservants-fear-losing-jobs-in-iwk-restructure/

Restructuring and down-sizing Govt, slash pensions, subsidies, govt services.
70

DO THE BUSINESS PEOPLE KNOW?

GFI reports that Malaysia lost USD 338 Billion (RM 1.08 trillion) from year 2000 ± 2009. 5th largest in the world!

RM 39,000/person! Highest in the world per capita!
71

How much is RM 1.08 Trillion? Equal to RM 100 notes stacked all the way from Singapore to Phuket!
RM 540 B in 5 years. RM 270 B for smallest 112 seats. 3.698 million voters. Loss per voter: RM 73,000

72

Equal to RM 100 notes stacked all the way from Singapore to Phuket!

Capital flight RM 150 B in 2009, 24% of GDP ! Where did this money come from ? 3 x KL MRT RM 250,000/family !

73

74

75

Monthly Salary (oz of gold)
0.48

0.476 oz
0.47 0.46

0.45

1970 Amah

0.44

0.43

0.426
2010 Graduate

0.42

0.41

0.4

0.39 1970 Amah 2010 Graduate

An Amah in 1970 earned more than a Graduate today?!!

DO OUR LEADERS KNOW ?

CASHING OUT ! PUSHING MALAYSIA TO BANKRUPTCY !

FELDA: Dr. Tan Kee Kwong, ex-Dep Min of Primary Industries: In 2001, FELDA had RM 4.5B cash. They should make RM 2 B per year. By 2011 they should have RM 25B cash. Instead, they owe EPF RM 6.5 B. Why ?

Never mind, they will find some suckers in the KLSE to buy their shares during listing.
78

KL MRT priced at 12 times Beijing ± Shanghai High Speed Train. Not economical ± sure bankrupt.

79

KLIA2: COST JUMPED FROM RM 1.6 B TO RM 3.9 B WITH 1 YEAR DELAY !

80

‡ Sg Besi Airport land, worth RM 5.2 B but sold for only RM 1.6 B !

81

BEFORE THINGS FALL APART ‡ Regain 2/3 majority to shore up their powers, ‡ Put all the laws in place to control dissent, ‡ Country goes bankrupt. ‡ IMF invited in, ‡ Millions lose their jobs, ‡ Civil servants chopped by 2/3,
82

PREPARING FOR UNREST !

Laws to suppress dissent ± Public Assembly Bill Laws to extract money from the public: IRB Law, New licensing laws, Others ?

83

PREPARING FOR UNREST ! ‡ Public Assembly Bill passed to prepare for repression by the police

As law-abiding citizens, it is our duty to obey the law. 84 Let all Malaysians stay home for 1 week!

EVENTS OUTSIDE OUR CONTROL

‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

SOVEREIGN DEFAULT: Italy, Greece, Spain, France, UK, US, China
85

WHAT ARE IN DANGER ?

‡ Banks, ‡ Commercial property & housing, ‡ Borrowings and high-gearing for businesses, ‡ Mortgages for speculative investments, ‡ Shares, ‡ Mutual funds, ‡ EPF.
86

Bank Runs

87

EXPORT MAIDS & LABOUR

88

HYPERINFLATION

89

Where Will A FAILED STATE. 12 FACTORS OF We End Up?? WE ARE HALF-WAY THERE
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.

Uneven development along group lines, Criminalization &/or delegitimisation of the State, Progressive deterioration of public services, Widespread violation of human rights, Security apparatus as state within a state , Rise of factionalised elites Demographic pressures, Massive amount of refugees, Legacy of vengeance-seeking groups over past grievances, Chronic & sustained human flight, Sharp & severe economic decline, Intervention of other states or external factors.

30 STAGES OF COLLAPSE

Public Assembly Bill

91

IS THERE HOPE ?

1. When nearing bankruptcy... ‡ A country¶s only chance of survival is for foreign investors to bring money in. ‡ Will they come in if its management is corrupt? 2. Do you want to hold corrupt leaders to account? 3. There are 198 non-violent methods ± http://www.aeinstein.org/organizations/org/ 198_methods-1.pdf
92

1ST UNDERSTAND THE SYSTEM

Study tindakmalaysia.com: ‡ History ‡ Religion ‡ Psychology ‡ Social ‡ Trends ‡ Finance & economics ‡ Politics ‡ Strategies of non-violent self-defense Simplification: Use mental models!
93

(Shrinking)

(expanding)

94

UMNO Rebels
95

96

          

ATTORNEY GENERAL S OFFICE ELECTION COMMISSION (EC/SPR) IMMIGRATION DEPT INLAND REVENUE BOARD (IRB) JAKIM/MUIS JUDICIARY MACC MILITARY INTELLIGENCE/UNIT TINDAKAN KHAS (UTK) POLICE/SPECIAL BRANCH RELA ROS
97

  

SYSTEM DEPENDS ON CASH-FLOW LOYALTY IS TO MONEY SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN WHEN CASH-FLOW STOPS

98

HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN ?
Leverage 100x Are banks safe? 4 million foreigners Are jobs safe?

http://www.imi.gov.my/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=524%3Ajumlah-statistik-pekerja-asing-sah-dan-pati99 yang-telah-didaftarkan-menerusi-program-6p-sehingga-18-ogos-2011&catid=1%3Aberita-terkini&lang=bm

POLITICS STARVE THE BEAST SOCIAL

X

? ?

ECONOMICS

100

SYSTEM RESTS ON CONFIDENCE !

CONFIDENCE & TRUST
101

WHAT WE NEED !

The US: A depression does a lot of good. It wipes out bad investments and eliminates bad speculators. It forces capital into more productive, more profitable uses. It kills off zombie industries. It retires worn-out industries and reduces costs so that new industries can arise. It¶s the µdestruction¶ that Schumpeter¶s µcreative destruction¶ needs.
102

2013 - Economic cycle: 50 ± 60 years !

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kondratieff_Wave.svg
103

HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ?

‡ Bank savings: Convert to gold bullion, ‡ Pensions: Withdraw if possible, ‡ Stocks and mutual funds: Sell all, ‡ Insurance: Give it up, ‡ Taxes: Minimize exposure through incorporation, ‡ Commercial property: Sell,
104

HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ?

‡ Housing: Sell. Keep only 1 to stay, ‡ Businesses: Minimize loans, ‡ Life-style: Cut down on expenditure, ‡ Financial: Reduce debt, ‡ Stock up on essentials, ‡ Food-growing land ± move to the countryside!
105

PREPARING FOR A HARSH FUTURE

‡ Don¶t accept whatever is said today. ‡ Do you own due diligence. ‡ Monitor future events carefully and compare with what is said today to see if it makes sense. ‡ Use the knowledge wisely to protect yourselves, your family & your friends. ‡ Help one another. ‡ Our best protection is National Unity.
106

FURTHER READING
Banking & debt, simply-explained. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGk5ioEXlIM&featur e=player_embedded Teh Chi Chang¶s analysis: The Budget & it¶s Shadow. High Alert! http://thedailybell.com/Public/Files/High%20Alert%20%203rd%20Edition(1).pdf 198 Ways To Bring Down A Dictatorship. **** Tindakmalaysia.com ****
107

Tindak Malaysia
To be free: Understand psychological warfare, Develop self-defense techniques, Mental revolution needed to take action. Spread the word !

108

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful