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Forecast Model of Rainfall in Tayabas City

Joel E. Erandio* and Felino Lansigan Southern Luzon State University, Lucban, Quezon
Mobile Number: 09178905314

Abstract Time series modeling is a very important aspect or method in analyzing data sets most especially in forecasting the possible future values of a certain test as the model applied. It would be a great help to everyone to gain a working knowledge of time series that can be use to model and forecast later on the different realistic samples such as in the production of crops (rice, corn, sugar, etc.) or amount of rainfall analysis. This study aimed to forecast an adequate but parsimonious model on rainfall of Tayabas City station. It can be use in various ways in the city most specially and highly significant to the farmers as basis of their crops production. Box and Jenkins iterative approach of model building was used to determine the adequate forecast model through model identification, estimation, and testing its adequacy. Tayabas City has a seasonal time series rainfall data as one of the sources of non-stationarity were data differenced at lag 1 and lag 12 for stationarity purposes of the model. As a result through the iterative process of model building, SARIMA (0, 1, 1) x (0, 1, 1) with parameters 1 = -0.4250 and 1 = -0.5700 is the forecast adequate model that is ready for predicting future values. Keywords: Forecasting, Modeling, SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Model, Rainfall

( Z t (l ) = Z t +l +Z t +l Z t +l +at +l 0.4at +l 0.5at +l +0.2at +l 1 12 13 1 12 13