MEMORANDUM

TO: FROM: SUBJECT: DATE: TIM MURPHY FOR CONGRESS CAMPAIGN NEIL NEWHOUSE / ROBERT BLIZZARD, PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES RECENT POLLING DATA FEBRUARY 15, 2012

As you know, Public Opinion Strategies recently conducted a survey of 300 likely Republican primary voters in Pennsylvania’s newly drawn 18th Congressional District on behalf of the Murphy Campaign. The poll was conducted January 15-16, 2012 and has a margin of error of +/- 5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases. The purpose of this memo is to review some of the key findings of that poll. Key Findings 1. Tim Murphy is well-positioned to win April’s Republican primary by a wide margin. Congressman Murphy has a commanding lead over challenger Evan Feinberg, 74%-12%. This margin cuts across all key Republican primary constituencies, including “strong” Republicans, very conservative voters, strong pro-life advocates and strong Tea Party supporters. The Congressman’s support is broad as well as deep. TOTAL 74% 12% Strong GOP 76% 9% Very Conservative 71% 11% Strong Pro-Life 76% 10% Strong Tea Party 74% 14%

Primary Ballot Tim Murphy Evan Feinberg 2.

Tim Murphy has a very favorable image among likely Republican primary voters. Fully 74% of primary voters view Congressman Murphy favorably. Further, the Congressman’s image has significant depth as 43% of GOP voters have a “very favorable” opinion of him.

3.

Republican primary voters view Murphy as a strong conservative. By a 61%-26% margin, Republican primary voters agree that Tim Murphy is a strong conservative voice in Congress. Among those Republican primary voters who say they are “very” conservative – an even larger percentage (63%) agrees that Murphy is a strong conservative voice. Bottom Line

These poll results are very clear: Tim Murphy is well-positioned to handily win the upcoming GOP primary election. His very strong image and position on the ballot, coupled with the Republican electorate’s ability to identify Congressman Murphy as a strong conservative make him a very formidable challenge to any potential rival.

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