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An assessment of the electoral & financial outlook for Malaysia. What the numbers tell us and what conclusions to draw from it.
6 POINTS: 1. BN cannot lose, 2. They know they are in trouble. 3. Their solution: push Malaysia into bankruptcy, 4. IMF come in to clean up the mess. Blame IMF for problems later, 5. New Rat Race System starts. 6. You don’t have to believe a word that is said!
RATIONALE BEHIND TINDAKMALAYSIA.COM Questions: 1. Where are we? 2. How did we get here? 3. Where are we headed? 4. How can we make it better?
A group of caring Malaysians carrying out community service through voter education and PACABA Training. Tindak Malaysia supports the reason why the Election Commission was formed - to ensure elections in Malaysia are free and fair.
(Elections Act S 5 (1a)) EC has to enjoy public confidence. (Federal Constitution Article 114)
Our training is based on the election laws and is politically-neutral. We are pro-Rakyat and accept any party that is voted in freely and fairly. We believe that “Power Corrupts, And Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely”. We take the position that there must be checks and balances and that no one party should hold too much power.
• • • • •
Mobile phone to silent mode, Introduction, Stickers, Outline of Programme and duration, Expected results.
Tindak Malaysia strategy: • Understand the principles of psychological warfare, • How is it used against us? • Develop self-defense measures.
Nations move in 50 to 60-year cycles! When politicians hold power for too long, they become arrogant, bullies and corrupt! The ABC’s of politics.
Their goal is to amass fortunes through all means, legal and illegal, live a life of luxury, and preserve their dynasty in any way that they can (such as pampered intelligence and military services, cadres of corrupt cronies, discriminatory governance to divide the citizenry, and costly foreign support). The result is that these countries have been financially plundered, with an inhospitable business climate, an underdeveloped private sector and little economic and social progress.
Where is this place? Middle –east!
BN CANNOT LOSE, ALTHOUGH BN WANTS THE PEOPLE TO BELIEVE THEY CAN LOSE!
WE NEED TO STUDY HISTORY !
1959 1964 1969 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1995 1999 2004 2008
Alliance Party/BN* Seats % seats % vote Seats Opposition % seats % vote Total seats
74 89 95 135 130 132
71.15 85.58 65.97 87.66 84.42 85.71
51.7 58.5 49.3 60.7 57.2 60.5
30 15 49 19 24 22
28.85 14.42 34.03 12.34 15.58 14.29
48.3 41.5 50.7 39.3 42.8 39.5
104 104 144 154 154 154
148 127 162 148
83.62 70.55 84.38 76.68
55.8 53.4 65.2 56.5
29 53 30 45
16.38 29.45 15.62 23.32
41.5 46.6 34.8 43.5
177 180 192 193
BN 140 MPs (63.1%) 8 states 50.27 % of votes
PR 82 MPs (36.9%) 5 states 46.75 % of votes
Putra Jaya (BN) Smallest 6608 voters
Kapar (PKR) Largest 112,224 voters
Voters ratio = 1:17
Even the 2nd smallest seat, Lawas, has 15,717, which is 2.4 times larger!
Same DUN but separated by land and sea
N45 SELAT KELANG
Same DUN but separated by land and sea
Four evenly matched districts
Redrawing of boundaries to give three-district advantage to Party 2
All districts produce an even voting ratio for each party Party 1
District A,B,C votes 90% for Party 2 District D votes 90% for Party 1 Party 2
One Voter One Vote ?
Question: Do the Chinese & Indians decide for a simple majority?
Courtesy of the famous retiree: Ng CN
Total voter population: 10,922,140 Total Parliament seats: 222 Simple majority: 112 seats
DESIGN: 1st 112 seats: 1.85 million. 2008, BN contested 139 seats to win 112 seats. 2.08 million votes required (19%). Do you agree that 2 million can decide for 28 million?
The smallest 112 seats come from: Sabah, incl Labuan: 26, Sarawak: 25, Johor: 13, Perak: 12, Pahang: 8, (Peninsular Malaysia: 61) For simple majority rule, rural Bumis decide. Only for 2/3 majority, the non-Bumis have a say! (Show Sabah & Sarawak powerpoint)
Seats can be increased after Mar 2011 but need 2/3 majority. BN can even create 200 Putrajayas!
Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 1 - 28
13 = Sarawak
12 = Sabah
Majority Sabah & Sarawak
Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 29 - 56
Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 57 - 84
Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 85 - 112
Point No. 1: BN cannot lose. Is that the reason we have such blatant corruption and inequality? Is it a coincidence that the poorest groups with the worst infrastructure, education and health-care facilities, are the king-makers? Is it a coincidence that the natives are driven off their land to join the urban poor?
It‟s good to belong to the Ruling Class!
States with the highest incidence of poverty: Sabah & Sarawak
Results of not paying attention: Ruling Party enjoyed 2/3 majority for more than 50 years since 1957.
Consequences: 700 Constitutional amendments since 1957. Compare with US, 234 years old: Only 27 Constitutional amendments. Answer: You have to avoid a 2/3 majority to prevent too much power in the hands of the Ruling Party.
21-06-1962, Constitutional Amendment: Article 116: Safeguard to maintain voter difference to less than 15% removed. Clauses (3), (4) and (5): Clauses were repealed by Act 14/1962, sub-section 22 (c)
Source: (page 197) http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_protect/---protrav/--ilo_aids/documents/legaldocument/wcms_125966.pdf
They start looking for alternatives!
CIVIL UNREST: When the poor are hungry and angry, they have nothing left to lose !
Do we want this? No!
WE GO BANKRUPT BY 2013!
BONDS: Thompson Reuters Eikon GLC’s: Annual Accounts DOMESTIC DEBT: Treasury Report
CAUTION: There may be some double-counting due to obscurity of some of the figures in the Treasury Report. GLC & Domestic Debt Analysis: Credit to Lee Wee Tak
NATIONAL DEBT –
Govt Bonds USD 179.8 B
13.01.2011 USD 44B rolled over last year!
Screenshot of Thomson Reuters Eikon
NATIONAL DEBT – GLC’s
GLC: Govtlinked cos
USD 19.5 Billion
In 3 ½ years, domestic debt has gone up by 70%!
USD 125.9 Billion
USD 136 B : 57% Debt/GDP
TOTAL DEBT – USD 331.4 B Countries that collapsed at Debt/GDP: Ireland, Dec 2010: 96% Greece, May 2010: 134% Malaysia 144% Jun 2011: 144%!
TOTAL DEBT – USD 331.4 B
WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM?
CAN IT GET WORSE? Debt/GDP: 139%, annual deficit: 4 – 5%
Operating expenditure eats up all revenue & pensions depend on current income. 53 How can the Govt afford giving out RM 500 per head? What‟s the source?
RM 200 vouchers for 1.3 million students: RM 260 million, One-off RM 100 aid each to 5.3 million students: RM 530 million. RM 500 for 3.4 million households: RM 1.8 billion, Civil servants increment 7% - 13%, Money given today will be taken back via GST tomorrow – Anil Netto: Atimes
Bureaucracy as % of Population
16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00%
1.4 M Civil Servants, 3 M RELA = 4.4 M
How long can this go on? Problem: Low productivity, poor work attitude, corrupt, entitlement-mentality. Does a change of govt solve these problems?
WHAT ARE THE PIIGS ?
P: Portugal I: Ireland I: Italy G: Greece S: Spain
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PIIGS DEFAULT ? • THEY GET SLAUGHTERED ! • Bond yields shoot sky-high • Is that Malaysia’s fate ?
GREECE Bond-buyers have to take a hair-cut !
In late October 2011, euro-zone governments called on Greece to secure a 50% write-down on the debt held by private creditors. Greece offered 25% only.
Must charge very high interest to compensate – more than 100%! Source: Wallstreet Journal
BUT MALAYSIA IS DIFFERENT !
• • • •
We have oil palm! We have oil & gas! We have electronics & electricals! We have high savings rate – EPF!
In 2009, Robert Kuok was forced to sell off his sugar monopoly to some “businessmen”.
Don‟t mess with Robert !Kuok. How has it hurt us?
• Robert Kuok invested in the world‟s largest sugar mill in Australia. Our international sugar price went up.
World price dropped but domestic price went up by 40%!
International sugar price goes down
Oil palm: Najib asked China to increase oil palm import from Malaysia but no deal. • Why? • Robert Kuok‟s Arowana Cooking Oil controls 40% of China domestic oil palm refining • Then Robert Kuok decided to invest USD 10 B in Indonesia oil palm. That‟s our lowest-cost competitor! Will it hurt us?
Blowback from grab of Robert Kuok‟s sugar business in Malaysia (click to see link)
BUT WE STILL HAVE OIL & GAS. • We become net importer by 2014, 2015! • Govt demanding more and more money from Petronas. • Petronas tried to stop the outflow. • So previous CEO forced out & replaced with Najib nominee. • Ex-CEO now working for Singapore.
WHAT ABOUT ELECTRONICS & ELECTRICALS? • • • • This depends on foreign countries. Europe is in serious trouble. So‟s the US. Even China is having a housing bubble and if her exports are hit for her biggest market (Europe), she will import less from Malaysia. • Outlook does not look good.
NOTHING CAN HAPPEN TO CHINA ! Property crashing - Chinese ghost town:
The soft landing view foresees Chinese
central technocrats responding timely with well-calibrated fiscal and monetary policies that maintain GDP growth of around 8%, the annual rate Beijing must achieve to absorb new graduates into the work force and keep unemployment manageable.
The hard landing scenario predicts that an
uncontrolled implosion of the property market will unleash waves of wealth destruction, a credit crunch and consumption collapse that no amount of government intervention will be able to meaningfully forestall. Southeast Asia will inevitably be among the worst hit by a soft or hard landing in China. http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/ML 22Ae02.html
OUR GOOD OLD EPF WILL SAVE US !
• Malaysia cannot borrow cheaply from international market as we are in the same situation as Greece. • So they tap into EPF for cheap funding. • By now 60% is gone! • That‟s our retirement savings!
Don’t feel bad. Govts do this as a matter of routine when they get into trouble. http://malaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/EPF-in68 Trouble2.pdf
IMPLICATIONS: INTERNATIONAL BAILOUT
Greece outlook: Look at Greece‟s situation • Expulsion from EU, • New currency with massive devaluation, • Job loss, • Drop in wages, • Sale of state assets, • Cost-cutting – pensions, subsidies, civil service, welfare aid, govt services,
• Petronas, banks and insurance cos forced to buy low interest Govt bonds, • Equivalent loans from international market will exceed 10% interest,
Restructuring and down-sizing Govt, slash pensions, subsidies, govt services.
DO THE BUSINESS PEOPLE KNOW?
GFI reports that Malaysia lost USD 338 Billion (RM 1.08 trillion) from year 2000 – 2009. 5th largest in the world!
RM 39,000/person! Highest in the world per capita!
How much is RM 1.08 Trillion? RM 100 notes stacked all the way from Singapore to Phuket!
Equal 75% of US Govt‟s gold in Fort Knox! For the smallest 112 seats, each voter lost RM 73,000
Equal to RM 100 notes stacked all the way from Singapore to Phuket!
Capital flight RM 150 B in 2009, 24% of GDP ! Where did this money come from ? 3 x KL MRT RM 250,000/family !
Watch out for a currency crash!
Monthly Salary (oz of gold)
0.39 1970 Amah 2010 Graduate
An Amah in 1970 earned more than a Graduate today?!!
DO OUR LEADERS KNOW ?
CASHING OUT ! PUSHING MALAYSIA TO BANKRUPTCY !
FELDA: Dr. Tan Kee Kwong, ex-Dep Min of Primary Industries: In 2001, FELDA had RM 4.5B cash. They should make RM 2 B per year. By 2011 they should have RM 25B cash. Instead, they owe EPF RM 6.5 B. Why ?
Never mind, they will find some suckers in the KLSE to buy their shares during listing. Lim Teck Ghee warning. 78
KL MRT 12 times cost of Beijing – Shanghai High Speed Train. Not economical – sure bankrupt.
KLIA2: COST JUMPED FROM RM 1.6 B TO RM 3.9 B WITH 1 YEAR DELAY !
• Sg Besi Airport land, worth RM 5.2 B but sold for only RM 1.6 B !
WHAT‟S THE PLAN? • Regain 2/3 majority to shore up power, • Put all the laws in place to control dissent, • Push country to bankruptcy. • Bring IMF in to do the dirty work, • Millions lose their jobs, • Civil servants chopped by 2/3,
PREPARING FOR UNREST ! Public Assembly Bill passed to prepare for repression by the police
As law-abiding citizens, it is our duty to obey the law. 84 Let all Malaysians stay home for 1 week!
1st JAN 2012: START OF POLICE STATE ?
UPSI 01.01.12: The president of undergraduate movement Bebas, Muhammad Safwan Anang taken to Slim River hospital in critical condition
EVENTS OUTSIDE OUR CONTROL
• • • • • • • •
SOVEREIGN DEFAULT: Italy, Greece, Spain, France, UK, US, China
WHAT ARE THE DANGERS ?
• • • • • • • • •
Banks or bank holidays, Capital control, Commercial property & housing, Borrowings and high-gearing for businesses, Mortgages for speculative investments, Shares, Mutual funds, EPF. Police State
NEW MALAYSIAN EXPORT: MAIDS & LABOUR
Maybe to Indonesia!
Zimbabwe, Nov 2007: USD 1 = Zimbabwe Dollars 1 million.
1 year later, it was ZDR 250 billion!
Where Will A FAILED STATE. 12 FACTORS OF We End Up?? WE ARE HALF-WAY THERE
3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
10. 11. 12.
Uneven development along group lines, Criminalization &/or delegitimisation of the State, Progressive deterioration of public services, Widespread violation of human rights, Security apparatus as “state within a state”, Rise of factionalised elites Demographic pressures, Massive amount of refugees, Legacy of vengeance-seeking groups over past grievances, Chronic & sustained human flight, Sharp & severe economic decline, Intervention of other states or external factors.
30 STAGES OF COLLAPSE
Public Assembly Bill
IS THERE HOPE ?
1. When nearing bankruptcy... • A country‟s best chance of survival is for foreign investors to bring money in. • Will they come in if its management is corrupt? 2. Do you want to hold corrupt leaders to account? 3. There are 198 non-violent methods – http://www.aeinstein.org/organizations/org/ 198_methods-1.pdf
1ST UNDERSTAND THE SYSTEM
Study tindakmalaysia.com: • History • Religion • Psychology • Social • Trends • Finance & economics • Politics • Strategies of non-violent self-defense For simplification: Use mental models!
ATTORNEY GENERAL’S OFFICE ELECTION COMMISSION (EC/SPR) IMMIGRATION DEPT INLAND REVENUE BOARD (IRB) JAKIM/MUIS JUDICIARY MACC MILITARY INTELLIGENCE/UNIT TINDAKAN KHAS (UTK) POLICE/SPECIAL BRANCH RELA ROS
SYSTEM DEPENDS ON CASH-FLOW LOYALTY IS TO MONEY SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN WHEN CASH-FLOW STOPS
HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN ?
Leverage 100x Are banks safe? 4 million foreigners Are jobs safe?
POLITICS STARVE THE BEAST
SYSTEM RESTS ON CONFIDENCE !
CONFIDENCE & TRUST
WHAT WE NEED !
The US: A depression does a lot of good. It wipes out bad investments and eliminates bad speculators. It forces capital into more productive, more profitable uses. It kills off zombie industries. It retires worn-out industries and reduces costs so that new industries can arise. It‟s the „destruction‟ that Schumpeter‟s „creative destruction‟ needs. Solution for US Debt:
Same for Malaysia. We cannot ignore the laws of economics for too long.
2013 - Economic cycle: 50 – 60 years !
HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ?
• Bank savings: Convert to gold bullion,
• Pensions: Withdraw if possible,
• Stocks and mutual funds: Sell all,
• Insurance: Give it up,
• Taxes: Minimize exposure through incorporation, • Commercial property: Sell,
HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ?
• Housing: Sell. Keep only 1 to stay, • Businesses: Minimize loans, • Life-style: Cut down on expenditure, • Financial: Reduce debt, • Stock up on essentials & dried-food,
• Food-growing land – move to the countryside! • Barter trade
PREPARING FOR A HARSH FUTURE
• Don‟t accept whatever is said today. • Do you own due diligence. • Monitor future events carefully and compare with what is said today to see if it makes sense. • Use the knowledge wisely to protect yourselves, your family & your friends. • Help one another. • Our best protection is National Unity.
Banking & debt, simply-explained. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGk5ioEXlIM&featur e=player_embedded Teh Chi Chang‟s analysis: The Budget & it‟s Shadow.
High Alert! http://thedailybell.com/Public/Files/High%20Alert%20%203rd%20Edition(1).pdf
198 Ways To Bring Down A Dictatorship. **** PACABA 0 Thread & Tindakmalaysia.com ****
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