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Martin A. Armstrong All Rights Reserved December 18th, Welcome: ArmstrongEconomics@GMail.COM Internationally

2008

He said no one has ever ~ an election for anticipating any problem and avoiding it.ruthful . has vast experience (not a 35 year old). "Vote for me. Most would regard it irresponsible if a politician came out and said that we were headed into a depression that will not end for 23 years.e believe in GOObecause they cannot imagine a world where nol::ody is in charge.Lt. uinctius Cincinnatus Q (b ca 519 OC) who accepted the office of dictator. Historically. The SEC expressly stated. 'Ibat makes a lot of sense! II I have little hope in government ever making things better. Indeed. we have ~ men. t:'CXTItEI1t. but no president. We flirt with the idea of appointing czars. Xenophon (ca 431-352 BC) was horrified at dem:cracy viewing it as a mob pretending to rule by law after it had sentenced Socrates to death because it did not like what he said. The office of Dictator could be appointed for 6 nonths.. Yet. since if it· had not been my foresight. It is a ·vote at times like the Greeks prayed to their various Gods . 1 . We need perhaps an econanic dictator who is not a banker. you would have lost your heme and job! We hire a fund manager based upon his past performance to foresee the future.M)st peopl.. and many of the founders had joined the Order of the Cincinnati. but we have no past perfonnance and expect none. but no means to address the problem because elected officials have to also worry al:out their own future. Rcme developed a Republic with a Senate and t\o. one Wi vidual was necessary to avoid the endless debates. We listen to premises. He also made a very t. We do not vote based upon expectations of management aki. Governments fill that earthly function and perhaps the best form of Government is the benevolent dictator. Paulson who is fonner em of Goldm:in Sachs.Trading car. obviously we cannot listen to politicians about the future events. 2008. Handing piles of cash to people like Mr.Ican to claim. Often they run for election fIlt'. I was manipulating the world econany.Lt. L2933-35). No pol. He was I asked by Congressman Issa "should the Congress bring to bear additional resources . The CatmJditv Futures . but we fall short of what Rare invented.it was not aworshtp.Dconsuls that performed the executive role as a general. But Rane reccgnized that in time of crisis. Recently. I have personally been the target of government misconceptions claiming that because my forecasts were correct. " ('IT. p122. He pointed out that this crisis could not have ccnte at a worse time. during the transition between preSidents.Ltacren will risk his career to prevent a disaster because no one will believe him anyway.. He pointed out. For we have such a crisis.Icans like used car salesmen. events and withholds the truth. However.Ll. At the birth of this nation. obviously is not the answer either. If a politican lies to the public about. and retired back to his farm. he is resp::msible for ~ need not create a panic. who George Washington tried to imitate. too many people were listenting to me.. that is fraud and warrants 25 years in prison. The downside. He must be satisfied with the honor of saving the nation as Luci\1§.s . Cincinnatus was revered. and that proved. we elect pol. and who has no future job prospectiveS. but a plea to just not tornent them.nussion actually issued a subpoena demanding I provide a list of al~ my cl~ent world~de so they could prove that allegation. in the real world. The natural course of events invites crisis. We are caught between a rock and a hard-place. the Chairman of the Securties Exchange Coomission was testifying before Congressman Waxmans OVersight Ccmnitte. disbanded ~his troops after defending his country. if a corporate officer fails to imnediately reveal how bad things are.X"ely yelling the other-guy is worse. It appears disingenuous for a pol. Barnie Frank was interviewed that aired on TV December 14th.• (to create] predictive m::deling .

" congressman Snow. buy the top. of a model instead "I share the basic thrust of your question here. The very cause of the boom bust cycle is the fact that there are twa sides. This is the self-interest that we cannot continue to endure if we expect to have a future. Whenloans and debt gets to be sane fraction of GOP. in their unique wisdcm. p125. 2 If government itself will not fund such a rocdel. I suppose at some poi.el and have signals go off. p124. The models that were used to create the leverage and derivative markets.e. which is can 't We do better? Can I t we find ways to do better? It seems to me. because GOPrepresents the obligation. you run up against the problem of trying to create such a level of exactitude that you rebuild the whole world in all of its complexity. how is this any different than the corruption everyone is talking about in Illinois? ever manipulate the warLd econany? The excuse is absurd. The investment ~~ are not traders. Those who have never seen the cycle. the question is leverage in the system. the model will fail to see such events and will afford no purpose anyway. The investment banks view "risk" is for the little specul. The professionals create models that blow-up because they are operating under the presumption that they are manipulating the stupid masses anyway.nt.ator . But that 1NOuld have curtailed the trading profits of the investment banks. and took the position that things were now different. and this is retrospect! ve. but that experience prepares them for the next when they sell the top to the next new guy coming to the table. So if you create a model assuming a collapse could never happen. The investment bankers were the largest market manipulators. They do not want any modeling any more than a casino wants people counting cards. then guess what.that rise at a very significant rate relevant to the GOPof the Un!ted states." SEC Chairman COX.bl. L3016-3027 We have to stop hiring people from an industry with personal self-interests. That sort of thing in rough and ready terms we should be able to rrod. It is an attitude they once attributed to Leona Helmsley: taxes are for little people. They manipulate markets to have that edge. No one would ever follow a roodel in 100%mass. lose a fortune. it the earning power. SO when they stack political posts with fonner CEDs of the investment banks with huge stock positions. That is probably an aspiration that we ought not to have. the debt represents probably ought to send off some signals. expressly eliminated events like the Great Depression because they did not understand how to create a model for such events. A six-year-old with that pocket calculator could have easily signalled rhe alarms and warned to bring back the leverage ratios. Congressman Cooper talked to us about future obligations that vastly -. L2999-3003.they do not want to create any nxXleling for they. would see this as manipulating markets if everyone then followed the model. then how could any mcdel . lIwith respect to modeling all of the risk in the system. and such events were no longer poss i. Congressman Snow asked whether we should have some sort of flying by the seat of our pants. If there was such a model. it -woulddeprive them of the ability to manipulate markets.

85 frcm which the current cycle period. we ended up with the collapse of Russia that instigated the collapse in Lonq-Tarm Capital Management for the very same reasons the Investment Bankers have collapsed . do not want IOOdels for the same reason casinos do not want card couriters. July 20th. the precise day of the next peak was February 27th.7 followed by the low in 2002. So what is wrong with having sore sort of map? Or is this the Dark Age where the Investment Bankers convince the Government don't create a model so is r. there was a dividing line between Investment Banks and CCt1iTlercialBanks that could not be crossed.tcrlay.35. That created the 1987. Investment bankers '. The very nature of an Invesbnent Bank was to make money on the markets. There perhaps no rocx:1elin history that has the exposure of the Econcmic Confidence Ibiel. 15 2015. began. This led to the final low in gold on the next minor turning potrrt 1999.an the NIKKEI 225. and the birth of the G-5 that began with its stated mission.75 2024. 1998) high. That was then followed by the collapse of Russia and the Long-Tenn capital Management collapse.55 that once again projected to the day. 1987. This mcx:1el as been published since the h 1970s and. That wave oottaned in 1985. Why in all sanity oould we allC10rl any investment banker get in charge of a bailout? This is like handing a drug a bottle of wiskey and hope he can drink himself sober.55 (July 20th. fell to $1.55 2007.625 with the Bubble Top in the Dot. Ccmnercial banks accepted deposat. Fran the 1998. 1989. The peak of the last Public wave on th~ 51.s .8 Crash that came precisely to the day of the projected target" October 19th.95 We have to understand that under the regulations that unfolded with the Great Depressdon. This was perfectly in tune with a Private Wave.1989.15).65 that marked the peak in the US dollar (British pound.95. we also saw the peak in CcmnUnismwith Tiananmen SqUare on June 3-4. a bull market into 19985.25 that once IOOre projected the precise day for the low in the S&P 500.1981. to manipulate the dollar 40% lower to ease the trade deficit. the peak in interest rates and the insane fight against inflation. 1989 followed by the fall of the Berlin Wall by November 1989. Once roore. and Investmant Banks created funding and underwriting projects. I have given countless seminars around the ~rld discussing this rocrlel.35 1998. Of course. . at the peak for the previous wave. The next low came 1994.35 2032.03). This led to the outflow of cash back to Japan and the capital concentration that attracted capital in Japan creating the Bubble Top again precisely in line with the model . 2007 (2007. 1998 the high in the stock market. This provided the economic high and peak in real estate and the exact high .6 year ma.('__cm stocks NASDAQ on the half cycle tarqet 2000. That marked.95 (December).jor wave was 1981. This sparked.

The government has exceeded the conviction rates of the star Chamber. SO there is no right that we have anymore. government to solve the problems we face when they are setting sail into the financial sea with no map. Then there was Galileo (1564-1642) who was sentenced to life imprisonment for arguing that the earth travels around the sun and was not the center of the heavens. Numerous countries contributed data and we built the canplexity of the world because no individual could possibly analyze everything in his head. what we face t. This is the real world. They that there should be no free speech regarding markets and thus the economy. This attitude of the SOCand CF'IC that continue to discourage Congress frem creating any science. 4 . just as the ancient Greeks executed Socrates because they did not like what he had to say. So how can we expect. appointed a equity receiver who by law is supposed to be independent. 472 US 181 ( 1985). that is too ccmplex and we should bar anyone who dares explore such areas. once they appoint their own people to run the ccmpany.you remain blind to what we are doing? Perhaps they believe they are like high priests and only they are worthy to see models . froze all funds and would not even allow the companies to hire a lawyer. and no way to see even where land might be? Is this any way to run a country? Thank you Investment Bankers! to regulate even those who merely ccmnented on a market.n .position The SEC tried The Supreme Court struck down the policy of the SEC in Lowe v SEC. Spanish Inquisition.K': rrerely acoonpl. There is no right left to the Freedcm of Speech. The Ccmnodity Futures Trading Ccmnission still adopts the same view and argues their statute is different and thus they can suppress free speech because the Supreme Court has not ruled against them. took the_. Both the SEC and CF'.oday is precisely this refusal of the SEC & CFTCto regulate their friends. Rus~ia executed Kondratieff for discovering a business cycle. SECChairman Cox was well aware of the models we developed and stated precisely that such a model would need to be "create[d] [with] such a level of exactitude that you rebuild the whole world in all of its ocrnplexity. ensured that a Great Depression was inevitable.not the comm::m investor or the canmon people? It seems they have done their best to keep the Government about as blind as can be. those in power seem to think that they should be beyond any criticism and we should be just executed for disagreeing with their policies. they Lied about the nature of the transactions. This is the same tyranny that just took place in Latvia . and allow unprecedented levels of leverage while blocking any use of mcrlels by the government. Everyone knows that was the basis of the Princeton model. . That is probably an aspiration that we ought not to have. and even Adolf Hitler ~ it is now virtually 99%. Just like the science of Chaos has emerged only when the computer was created to be able to see such complexity. I find it curious that they criticize President Bush for rej ecting all the science regarding Global Warming.Lsh the same goals by indirect means. is a clear effort to keep our society in· the dark ages that only benefits the investment banks that have used their own models to manipulate the financial markets for personal gain.they roUnded up all the econanists that mentioned that the economy would decline. why is the SEC & CFI'C trying to act like the Puritains at Salem and execute people and stop progress because it must be the work of the devil in their mind? This is not in line with science and the evolution of man. In the case of Princeton Econanics. Judges for the most part only rule in favor of !:he goverrurent and will not defend the Constitution. yet when it canes to creating any science regarding our economic lives. They wanted to control what people even say. they order him to just shut it down. the investment banks. Far too often. but the JudiCiary is as corrupt as Illinois politics.

l. they could not rely upon just one forecast. I was urgently asked for advise sudClenly claiming that the number one problem was in fact volatility. The system is designed to self-destruct in pericrls of econanic collapses because \\Te 00 not have even a role struciturally for the temporary dictator like once existed in RcxnanRepublican times. You can look at the archieve of the English MagaZine. The SEC & CFIC Will. for no one will vote based upon a claim that "but for" their actions. Here in 2008.45 roodel ooncernms volatility.3 0\ . Their mot.destroy science for ignorance is bliss.- 0"'1 ~ \D • 1994. I wrote to the WhiteHouse warning them this would create a sharp rise in volatility going 2007. announced -1993 1999 1987 /". When people that work in the . When the 1987 Crash hit. Those in charge have no incentive to avoid disaster. We are once again at the sane poirrt on this mode. if the people know that. do their best to prevent any advanceaent in m:deling and will seek to prosecute anyone who tries. So much for governrrent forward thinking. Government has just "nothing to offer but nore chaos and will inevitably accelerate the the volatility.SEC & CF. This is the dark-side of Democracy.65 ~\ o o N Eccn:mic confidence lolJdel Contrasted With the 72 Year Cycle of Volatility & GroUping Waves 2014 I received a very nice letter fran B.as we were in 1985. in July that year so it could never be said that sanehow this was made up with hindsight.15 into 1987. 2011 2009. no -different than Stalin did regarding Kondratieff or latvia is currently doing rounding up all their economists who warn of a decline. they fanned the G-S and then they would manipulate the dollar down by 40% to help trade.to . the mcx:lel is projecting a sharp rise in volatility going into 2011 as it did in 1985 looking into 1987. somehow it will make it happen. I -: . Sprinkel who was the chief Econanic Advisor at that tine." but stated that I was the only person with such 2011. He thanked me for my concern. The SEC & CFTC prefer to destroy what they cannot canprehend even though their actions are illegal and contrary to a free society._ In 1985. we must confront the harsh reality that we are all alone.Now that we understand that Goverrunent cannot help. life would be worse. We can only survive through our own reasoning based upon unbiased and objective understanding of how the world really works. But they just think they know best and if a hurricane is approaching.cs. The year 2011 is going to be a wild-ride and don t expect the Governments of the warId to look ahead -" it just won't happen. the Eaxlanist. and tmtil saneone else developed a similar ItKXiel.I'C are allowed to impose their personal narrow-mindedness to suppress progress. We took the back page to show this IOCldelto the world I believe perhaps for the whole month. nor offer any reasonable plan to mitigate the economic decline when agencies like the SEC & CFTC" eliberately d prevent any scientific advancement in the field of econooti.25 ~ ~ 1985.

the econanic team put together b th~ Pr'eaLdent.le . There is a significant danger that we may find government act in the II'Dst irresponsible manner possible. then we may see a test of the bottan of this channel before this is over . Z The technical perspective shows the potential for a serious Phage. please keep in mind.keIy to adopt any policy that has not been in the s~d bag of trwks.Transition that can wipe out bot. that this type of pattern is the most.ly to Just p:ay.To get d~wn t~ practical expectations. to open the window and just start throwing money out. The above chart of The DowJones Industrials (Cash) provides a 'monthly Look at how the US prime stock market has performed.n to aJ. The government has' no model that says If you do :tlus.Elect 1.4. the market may be still in a state of shock and capt ta.... this will be like driving a car WiU10Uta steering wheel. The top of tllis channel stood at the 9.tom of this channel and then bounce out of it to at first retest the top of the channel. The Phase-Transition that is possible would embrace a sharp thrust downward to test the bot. S<.l r.h sides of the market.000 level and reconvert this into support rather than just. The channel created by the 1998 high tied to the 2002 low is cyclically constructed using the model and the center point high of 2000 (the Bubble Top in Dot-Com). That is. thi. can get Short-term. If the market cannot rally back above the 9. works and when that does not work advi. It is typically unleased when the confidence in the government collapses.s will happen! II So it is roore-or-less try and seetarw · hapcens .5 not Li.000 zone. That clearly failed to provide support and is now starting to form as overhead resistance. we would then head off to new record highs of massive new proportions.000 area. to adjust before events happen. fading it back and forth.s contracting with interest rates in federal debt issues rmvi.nut as clos~ as you. Given the Government will not even contemplate looking at a practical model as if that would be consulting witchcraft. only in response to them. ~use hat of this lack of econcmic expertice. w~ are in the same boat.>ll ~ can expect is like a doctor who just keeps trying eve a sor~ of cure un~11he ~~nds scmething that. is that this scenario is akin to the Mississippi Bubble and is more-likely-than-not going to produce hyperinflation that may lead to civil unrest and international war. 6 . There will be no possible way for the qovernrnant.. volatile poss ib..sas the fam. The problem we have. with the possibility that exceeding the top of that channel and finding it provide precise support as what took place in 2005. 2009. the volatility· should t s to lncrease agaln after April 19th.

p..092 (2/03) (2/22) (April 16th...142 (2/21) 2009.739 . and then rallied for the target October 11th. (l\pril 19th. 2009.146 2008. 27th. 23rd 2008) economically.640 (8/21) 0 N 2009.976 (12/22) &.6 year wave going into the final wave bottom due on June 13th.034 (1/12) 2009. the rrodel precisely.232 (3/25) 2011. made a reaction low into August.235 (3/27) 2010.. 2011. 2011) . this is not an intended m::rlel on any specific (Feb.. please find all of the minor rronthly turning points within the wave. 2007) 2007.464 (6/18) 2007. 2009 (Sunday) and April 16th.821 (10/27) 2007.720 (9/19) 2008. Fran the February high in 2007. 2009. . these targets have been working rather well. The next day. you can follow these dates along side all the markets to see how they are shaping up in each individual market.291 2008. is the second half of the current 8.287 (4/27) 2007.021 (1/07) .138 (2/19) 2010. the Dow made a final high.644) (8/23) 200S. 2009.(5/07) . 2010) 2008. . 27th. The two key turning poirrts will be April 19th. the Dow declined into April. To the right of the chart. (9/26) 2010. 2007) market individually. 13th.* 2010.991 (11/27) 2009.989 (12/27) 2010..873 (11/14) 2008.348 .918 (12/01) 2011.. Those markets that line up with .15 (Feb.604 (S/08) 2010.406 (5/28) 2008. but then collapsed penetrating the low of the 11th and closed lower starting the decline.778 (10/11) 2007.011 (1/04) 2008..648 (8/24) 2007. 2009) will receive the greatest impact (Mar. 2010 (-1'1').301 (4/19) 2009.-"T--~-'t"'"""" 2007.Below..134 (2/18) 2011. .734 (9/25) :5 ... 7 ... So far.662 (8/29) 2009.. however.867 (11/12) 2008.. keeping in mind.636 (8/20) 2010.45 (JlHl.585 (8/02) 2008. rallied into June/July.595 (8/05) 2010.

Nevertheless. we are in a major econcmic implosion. We can expect that ±he interest rates will rise when the markets begin to see unprecedented debt from all economies.55 2nOi~1S 19'M 2Q05 • ·1994. This will tend to drive up interest rates during the second half of the year in 2009.Laj Iy . The major Panic of 1907 that was in part created by the San Francisco Earthquake. to be blown out by the winds of fate. the volatility should be much greater than anything we experienced during the previous Public Wave (1934-'1985). exceptionally high volatility. The Private Wavethat preceeded (1882-1934) was laced with numerous panics. During this wave. and that means that current mortgages will fall below market values. We can expect. the lower housing prices. All interest paynents were reassigned to principle.i. We had the Richman's Panic of 1903 atout 21 years into that Wave and that is about. where Caesar took charge and had to revalue. they will not be able to stimulate the econany. 8 . With real estate falling below the original purchase price. This may be similar in degree to the collapse in the economy of Rane follOWing the Civil War (49~45BC).95· '19'9'8. was the final straw that broke ele Railroads ending the leadership of the trrulsportation era shifting that distinction to the Industrials for the Panic of 1929. Because the government will continue to seek to borrow foods.. this to rise to about. where we atood at the high in 2007. They will canpete against the hane owner and will cause a greater proportaon of defaults in rrortgages. 1989 ::: The Fall 1998 '" The Fall 2007 '" The Fall of Ccmnunism of Russian Economy of Socialism? 19139'. the first -ba. That was concerned with the collapse of Russia and the collpase of the IMF loan structure. came with the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998.Iout.25· Since we are in a Private Wave. brillant real estate crisis ever unraveled in history . they will borrow and that will escalate the debt exponent. The rrore the interest rates rise. all the real estate and settled the debts at 'equal values to when the oortgage had been taken.out 1 0% of rrortgages in trouble. Already we have al:. and the US Treasury going broke just 13 years into that wave fonnation during 1896. 25%.The primary concern will be that whatever spending the Government will adopt under the theory that it needs to stimulate the economy. This was perhaps the most. we cannot expect any foresight frem GoVen1II\el1t and this one appears like a candle about.

. unfortunately I Government is also addicted to oorrowing. If Government continues to run by the seat of its pants.they keep drinking because they are a::rnpelled to do so.. 26 years fran the beginning of this current Wave being 1985.. What the problem is sterns fran the fact that they are allergic and their body does not function normally causing them to stop . That is the entire structure of society. They cannot stop.s. So hold on. I read virtually eVery newspaper on a daily basis through the boan and bust ·of that entire cycle.. They published it for what it was worth. but they cannot borrow and stimulate simultaneously. we to be headed for one heck of a ride • seem ... They are not void of responsibility. That is not welfare and mere social programs. While I might be arguably the nnst qualified on the subject. that still does not mean I could call the next boon or bust without quantified model. 1933 that they repor+od had been found in an old desk in 1902.uKY . They took no position on the chart and could not attribute the author.. In the course of that research. This has no relevance as to who is even President. So the future appears as stormy as ever. their only solution will be to spend again what they cannot provide. the same econcmic tool bag. No matter how much you try to reason with a drunk. we are more-likely-than-not going to experience one huge meltdown econanicall y • This is nearly Some people who may be alooholics who have a problem different than one might expect. STUE1' lOUWlfAt THURSDAY MOUlVO nn. The danger is that we could see the fall of Socialism.. they cannot stop. They will borzow. 9 . It projected the low for 1932. ma The Forecast Of An Earlier Generation j/mlljGJ -. When I was doing research for the Greatest Bull Market. Both Republican and Dem::>crats fundtion with..!'lALt. Government is no different. Politicians can only see that the people expect them to make the pain go away. the Wall Street Journal published a cur-ious cyclical chart on February 2nd..11 .From a timing perspective.65. Lacking any other ability and IOOdelsas well... 2011. thinking this scxoehow mitigates the spendthrift cycle. I read both daoostic and foreign newspapers doing a lot of my research at the Royal British Newspaper Library in London. the 1907 Panic would be in line with about.

Wecan expect the debt crisis to worsen and those dr. We have not yet seen what real volatility can be. It l::ottaned in 1932 while the WPA was not formed until 1935 as unemployment rose to 25% and almost 3. There appears to be the possibility that we will simply collapse and get this over with pretty fast.i ving this car. and while the dollar was it between 1929 and 1932. capital needs safety.The concept of a business cycle and modeling the boorn bust inherent swings within our econany _ has been around for a long time. It seems strange that the Government listens to the SEC & CFIC and refuses to create any scientific rocdeling to help it understand what to do when and where rather than just opinions.000 area as early as April 2009 to June 2009. the wave of new debt that is likely to appear during the second half of 2009 will be a tsunami. things could get very interesting thereafter. that changed driving the stock market up into 1937 al:out a 50%recovery. this could be the low for the stock market signalling that capital will flee fran government debt later in the year driving interest rates higher. do not have a steering wheel. That is real volatility. I am not qualified to forecast the future by personal beliefs. We can no more presume that we are beyond the historic mistakes that every society has made to date. BelCh! is the 72 year vol atil i ty nndel for the current wave formation econanically focused. The problem we face is that all nations are in tJ1e same boat . So hang on tight. Weare likely to see the same type of bifurcated movement if we see the low in 2009 for the Dow. Because Roosevelt was suspected to be planning to con£iscate gold. We must realize that the stock market typically Cottans first. The record decline in the DOw for a single day is almost 25% from late 1914. If the stock market drops sharply and we see the Dow test the 4. April 2009 is shaping up to be rather important. than we will live forever. the stock market began to rise in anticipation of a dollar devaluation.000 banks failed after the 1932 low. makin9 The likelihood that Government will attempt to fund its bailout WiU1 debt as did the French after the Mississippi Bubble. If gold were to decline into an April lCM. The 72 Year Volatility Cycle that ends in a Phase-Transition 10 4 11 12 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 10 2008 2014 2020 2026 2032 2038 . How can we run a country on policies of hit-or-miss? We can no more tolerate running an economy without ~1tified modeling any more than we can tolerate running investments based upon models that presume ~lings are different so we need not account for major econanic changes. We are most likely gOing to have cine really wild ride. Man has not changed at all.

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