BP Energy Outlook 2030

London, January 2012

Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population growth, energy consumption, policy support for renewable energies and sources of energy supply. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual results may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation.
Energy Outlook 2030 2 © BP 2012

Contents
Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Key determinants Risks and unknowns Appendix 4 7 21 43 73 83

Energy Outlook 2030

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© BP 2012

Welcome to the 2012 edition of BP’s Energy Outlook 2030. This is the second year in which BP has made our outlook for global energy available to the public. I am glad to see this decision was endorsed by the response we received to last year’s edition, which was downloaded over 36,000 times from BP’s website. I was particularly pleased at this response because I strongly believe that sharing the data and analysis of the Energy Outlook – and of our annual Statistical Review of World Energy – is part of our responsibility to inform the discussions on energy that are occurring in companies, governments, and over dinner tables worldwide. This Energy Outlook contains our projections of future energy trends and key uncertainties, based on our views of the evolution of the world economy, of policy, and technology. This is our view of the most likely outcome for world energy supply and demand to 2030; it is not necessarily the energy world we at BP wish to see. This year we examine in more detail several important facets of the global energy story: the pathways for economic development and energy demand in China and India; the factors affecting the energy export prospects of the Middle East; and the “drivers” of energy consumption in road transportation. As always, the numbers that make up this outlook point to long term trends and highlight potential decision points or “fault lines” in the system; in short, their job is to convey the underlying challenges and opportunities we all face in producing and consuming energy.
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highlight the likelihood that import dependence (in what is today’s largest energy importer) will decline substantially. They are market driven. While this has inescapable implications for the likely path of carbon emissions. even as renewable energy sources continue their rapid growth. the outlook also highlights the opportunities for improving energy efficiency and “lightening the carbon load” by switching to less carbon-intensive fuels such as natural gas. they represent a key reason why I feel optimistic about the world’s ability to meet the challenge of providing energy that is affordable. Global energy trade continues to grow rapidly. These are changes for the better. Significant changes in US supply and demand prospects.Our job is to unlock this story from the numbers. this outlook highlights the critical role that fossil fuels will continue to play in the world’s energy mix. linking the world’s economies and driving a remarkable convergence of the relationship between energy use and economic activity in countries around the world. Perhaps most important to me is how the outlook reminds us that we are all connected. We hope you find the 2012 edition of the BP Energy Outlook 2030 a useful addition to the global energy discussion. sustainable and of course safe. The outlook also challenges some long-held beliefs. For example. Bob Dudley Group Chief Executive Energy Outlook 2030 5 © BP 2012 . and while they need the support of well-designed policies. secure. for example.

taking account of developments over the past year. technology and the economy. to provide a basis for discussion.Note on method and assumptions This edition updates our view of the likely path of global energy markets to 2030. and use a range of analytical tools to build a “to the best of our knowledge” view. All data sources are listed on page 88. The underlying methodology remains unchanged – we make assumptions on changes in policy. While we do touch on some of the key uncertainties. We focus on the “most likely” base case numbers. based on extensive internal and external consultations. and in the process of building the Outlook we explore the impact of alternative assumptions. the treatment of energy market risks here is by no means exhaustive. and historical energy data through 2010 is consistent with the 2011 edition of the Review . Energy Outlook 2030 6 © BP 2012 . Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expressed in real Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms. data definitions are based on the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Of course the future is uncertain. Unless noted otherwise.

Contents Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Key determinants Risks and unknowns Appendix 4 7 21 43 73 83 Energy Outlook 2030 7 © BP 2012 .

a. 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 1970-1990 Energy Outlook 2030 GDP Population Energy Energy per capita Energy per GDP 1990-2010 2010-2030 8 © BP 2012 .Key assumptions are population and GDP growth… Global growth rates % p.

a.0% p.a.a.6% p. energy consumption per capita grows at 0. We project GDP growth to rise over the next 20 years. We project population growth of 1.…and a key outcome is accelerating energy efficiency Population and income remain the key drivers of energy demand.2% p.0% p. (compared to 2. Energy Outlook 2030 9 © BP 2012 . Global GDP growth is likely to accelerate.7% p. Over the last 20 years the global population has increased by 1.2% p.a.). about the same rate as it has since 1970. 1.a.a. This acceleration restrains the overall growth of primary energy consumption.7% p. Primary energy consumption growth to 2030 decelerates to 1. over the past 20 years. between 1990 and 2010. from 3. driven by low and medium income economies.a. This implies accelerating growth of income per capita. but the growth rate is trending down.a..4 billion over the next 20 years (or 0. vs.9% p. the last 20 years).. at an accelerating rate of 2.6 billion people. to 3. Energy efficiency – measured broadly as energy per unit of GDP – will continue to improve globally.

Non-OECD economies drive energy consumption growth… Billion toe 18 15 12 9 6 3 Non-OECD Non-OECD Billion toe 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 10 Renewables* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil OECD OECD 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 *Includes biofuels © BP 2012 .

over the next decade.7% p.a.a.a. OECD energy consumption per capita is on a declining trend (-0. over the past decade.5% p.a. with growth averaging 2.…as the fuel mix gradually shifts away from oil and coal World primary energy consumption is projected to grow by 1. from 2020 to 2030. The growth rate declines. Gas and non-fossil fuels gain share at the expense of coal and oil. OECD energy consumption in 2030 is just 4% higher than in 2010. gas grows the fastest (2.0% p. Energy Outlook 2030 11 © BP 2012 . per capita).a. By 2030 non-OECD energy consumption is 69% above the 2010 level. adding 39% to global consumption by 2030. and it accounts for 65% of world consumption (compared to 54% in 2010).6% p.a. 2010-30).6% p.1% p.7% p. The fastest growing fuels are renewables (including biofuels) which are expected to grow at 8. from 2. 2010-30.2% p.a. (or 1. to 2030.a.a. and 1. among fossil fuels.). to 2.3% p.a. due to long gestation periods and asset lifetimes. oil the slowest (0.a.). with growth averaging 0. Almost all (96%) of the growth is in non-OECD countries.2% p.2% p. The fuel mix changes slowly. over the period 2010 to 2030.

0% -1 OECD Energy Outlook 2030 Contributions to global growth % p.5% Renewables* 2.Fuel substitution is the main story in the OECD… By fuel and country grouping Change 2010 to 2030. Billion toe 5 4 3 2 1 0.a. 2.5% 1.20101990 2010 2030 * Includes biofuels © BP 2012 .0% 1.1990.5% 0 0.0% Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Non-OECD 12 1970.

Renewables displace oil in transport and coal in power generation. which meets 31% of the projected growth in global energy. but there are significant shifts in the fuel mix. this aggregate non-fossil contribution is.…while the non-OECD sees all fuels expanding OECD total energy consumption is virtually flat. The economic development of non-OECD countries creates an appetite for energy that can only be met by expanding all fuels. nuclear and hydro together account for 34% of the growth. larger than the contribution of any single fossil fuel. The growth of global energy consumption is increasingly being met by non-fossil fuels. Renewables. For many developing countries the imperative remains securing affordable energy to underpin economic development. The largest single fuel contribution comes from gas. technological innovation and policy interventions. gas gains at the expense of coal in power. These shifts are driven by a combination of relative fuel prices. Energy Outlook 2030 13 © BP 2012 . Renewables on their own contribute more to world energy growth than oil. for the first time.

5 Industry Other By sector and fuel to 2030 Billion toe Hydro Nuclear Renew.0 Transport Industry Other -0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.5 RoW Middle East China & India OECD 3.5 1.5 1. Electricity Gas Biofuels Oil Coal Final energy use Energy Outlook 2030 Inputs to power 14 Final energy use Inputs to power © BP 2012 .0 Transport -0.0 1.5 0.5 2.The growth of energy consumption by sector… By sector and region to 2030 Billion toe 3.0 2.0 2.5 0.

non-fossil fuels. The transport sector shows the weakest growth. The industrial sector accounts for 60% of the projected growth of final energy demand to 2030. particularly in rapidly developing economies. we are starting to see diversification: driven by policy and enabled by technology.…is dominated by power generation and industry Energy used to generate electricity remains the fastest growing sector. The power sector is also the main driver of diversification of the fuel mix. Industry leads the growth of final energy consumption. biofuels account for 23% of transport energy demand growth (with gas contributing 13% and electricity 2%). Energy Outlook 2030 15 © BP 2012 . led by renewables. In transport. with OECD transport sector demand projected to decline. accounting for 57% of the projected growth in primary energy consumption to 2030 (compared to 54% for 1990-2010). account for more than half of the growth.

2 Growth of fuel inputs to power Billion toe 1.8 1.4 .0 19902000 16 20002010 20102020 20202030 © BP 2012 -0.Strong growth in power generation continues… World power generation Thousand TWh 40 Renewables 30 Hydro Nuclear 20 Coal Gas 10 Oil 0.6 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 0.4 0.

The growing role of non-fossil fuels becomes even clearer in the following decade to 2030.7% p.) is projected to grow more rapidly than total energy over the next 20 years.1% p. Meanwhile the contribution of gas remains relatively steady at around 31% through the decades.a.a.6% p. 2010-30. although not as rapidly as GDP (3. Efficiency gains in power generation mean that the fuel inputs grow less rapidly than power output. with 75% of the growth coming from these sources and very little from coal.…with lower carbon fuels gaining market share World electricity demand (2. accounting for 39%. averaging 2.a. Energy Outlook 2030 17 © BP 2012 . hydro and other renewables contribute as much as coal. but non-fossil fuels are rapidly catching up.). Over the next decade coal is still the largest contributor to the growth of power fuels. In aggregate nuclear.

2 World China 30% 20% Coal 0.1 Gas India 10% Hydro Nuclear 1990 2010 Renewables* 2030 © BP 2012 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 18 0% 1970 * Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 2030 .4 Shares of world primary energy 50% 40% Oil 0.Convergence of energy intensity and fuel shares… Energy intensity Toe per thousand $2010 GDP 0.3 US 0.

Energy Outlook 2030 19 © BP 2012 . The rate at which renewables penetrate global energy markets bears remarkable similarity to the emergence of nuclear power in the 1970s and 1980s.…will be dominant trends Energy intensity continues its long term trend of convergence across countries. the diffusion of technology. with a trend decline evident by 2020. Coal’s recent gain in market share will start to reverse soon. Fossil fuels are converging on a market share of 26-28% each and non-fossil fuel groups on a market share of 6-7% each. especially in non-OECD economies. As a result. to a lower and lower global level – a process we have discussed in more detail in the 2011 edition of the Energy Outlook. economic growth will become significantly less energy intensive. while gas continues to gain. and the standardization of consumption baskets. Convergence is driven by energy trade. Oil follows a long run trend of decline in its market share.

Energy Outlook 2030 20 © BP 2012 .

Contents Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal Non-fossil fuels Key determinants Risks and unknowns Appendix Energy Outlook 2030 4 7 21 22 30 36 38 43 73 83 21 © BP 2012 .

Liquids demand growth from non-OECD countries… Mb/d 105 100 95 90 85 80 2010 OECD Declines NonOECD Growth 22 Demand 2030 level Other S&C Am Mid East India Supply Other Iraq Saudi Oil Sands Biofuels Brazil US NGLs China 2010 NonNonOPEC OPEC OPEC Growth Growth Declines © BP 2012 Energy Outlook 2030 .

…will be met by supply growth from OPEC and the Americas Oil is expected to be the slowest-growing fuel over the next 20 years. India (+3. as well as conventional crude in Iraq and Saudi Arabia. growing by 5 Mb/d.5 Mb/d) and the Middle East (+4 Mb/d) together account for nearly all of the net global increase. offsetting continued declines in a number of mature provinces. Global liquids demand (oil. biofuels. Canadian oil sands. Growth comes exclusively from rapidly-growing non-OECD economies. where output is projected to rise by nearly 12 Mb/d. exceeding 103 Mb/d by 2030. Non-OPEC supply will continue to rise. due to strong growth in the Americas from US and Brazilian biofuels. Brazilian deepwater. The largest increments of new OPEC supply will come from NGLs. and other liquids) nonetheless is likely to rise by 16 Mb/d. and consumption is expected to decline by 6 Mb/d. OECD demand has likely peaked (in 2005). Energy Outlook 2030 23 © BP 2012 . Rising supply to meet expected demand growth should come primarily from OPEC. and US shale oil. China (+8 Mb/d).

Liquids demand growth is driven by non-OECD transport… Liquids demand by sector Mb/d 105 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 1990 2010 2030 24 Liquids demand by product group Mb/d 105 Biofuels 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 1990 Light distillates Middle distillates Other Non-OECD Ind. & Other Non-OECD Transport OECD Ind. & Other OECD Transport Power Fuel Oil 2010 2030 © BP 2012 Energy Outlook 2030 .

(from 1.4% p.…while OECD demand falls across all sectors Global liquids consumption growth is projected to slow to 0. gradual reduction of non-OECD subsidies. largely for petrochemicals). where oil can be more easily displaced by gas and renewables. Expected OECD declines are initially concentrated outside the transport sector.a.5 Mb/d. a range of new policies.. Demand growth is expected to be weighted towards middle distillates while fuel oil consumption declines. By sector.a. Energy Outlook 2030 25 © BP 2012 . liquids demand growth to 2030 comes from non-OECD transport (nearly 14 Mb/d). and the continued. with non-OECD industry also contributing (6.8% p. improved engine efficiency will drive declines in OECD transport demand. Overall consumption growth will be constrained by stronger crude oil prices seen in recent years. 1 Mb/d below the 1990 level.6% p. NonOECD consumption is likely to overtake the OECD by 2014.a. and reach 63 Mb/d by 2030 – 2½ times the 1990 level. OECD consumption will fall to 40.5 Mb/d. in 1990-2010). technological advances. This will continue to put pressure on those refineries with limited upgrading capacity. oil will slow to 0. post-2015.

.OPEC’s critical position in the oil market grows.. Liquids supply by type Mb/d 105 90 75 60 45 30 15 OPEC share (rhs) OPEC NGLs OPEC crude Biofuels Oil Sands Other nonOPEC Non-OPEC conventional Growth from 2010 to 2030 Mb/d 12 Other 45% 9 Saudi Arabia Iraq Brazil US Shale Oil Biofuels 6 3 NGLs 0 OPEC -3 Canadian Oil Sands Other 0 30% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 26 Americas RoW © BP 2012 .

non-OPEC output is projected to rise by over 5 Mb/d as these growth areas more than offset declining conventional output elsewhere. by 8 Mb/d. In addition. a level not reached since the 1970s. and US shale oil (+2. as advances in drilling technologies unlock additional resources in the Canadian oil sands (+2. Energy Outlook 2030 27 © BP 2012 . OPEC NGLs will grow by more than 4 Mb/d – driven in part by rapid growth of natural gas production. Overall. Brazilian deepwater (+2 Mb/d).2 Mb/d). the US and Brazil contribute over half of total biofuels production growth (of +3. while Saudi output expands by nearly 3 Mb/d.…while the Americas also play an expanding role Global liquids supply growth will match expected growth in demand with OPEC accounting for 70% of incremental supply. Saudi Arabia is assumed to add new capacity as and when required to maintain a cushion of spare capacity. the group’s market share will approach 45%.5 Mb/d) expected by 2030. Crude oil output from Iraq is projected to double to nearly 6 Mb/d.2 Mb/d). Supply from the Americas will also expand.

The implications for refining are stark… Global liquids supply and demand Mb/d 105 Global liquids demand Supply growth 2010-30 Total liquids 16 Mb/d 1 3 9 7 2 Other NGLs Bio Other liquids:1 Biofuels: => Refined crude: 90 Non-refined NGLs: 3 75 Crude 60 OECD China crude runs:2 => Runs ex-China 45 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1 includes 2 if processing gains self-sufficient in products Energy Outlook 2030 28 © BP 2012 .

5 Mb/d) and non-refined NGLs (+3 Mb/d). and that country’s refinery expansion plans will affect product balances globally. More than half of global liquids demand growth is in China. A continuation of its stated strategy to be self-sufficient in refined products would severely curtail crude run increases for refiners outside of China. Increases in processing gains and growth in supplies of liquids derived from gas and coal are likely to add another 1 Mb/d to product supplies. Existing spare capacity will accommodate some of the future growth in refinery throughput. All of these supply sources will compete directly with refineries to meet total liquids demand growth of 16 Mb/d from 2010.…with refinery throughputs likely to grow only modestly Growth in the call on refinery throughput to 2030 will be constrained by the growth of liquids which do not need refining: biofuels (+3. limiting the growth in the call on refinery throughput to only 9 Mb/d over the next 20 years. Energy Outlook 2030 29 © BP 2012 .

America 320 270 2010 OECD Non-OECD 2010 LNG Pipeline Energy Outlook 2030 30 © BP 2012 .Natural gas demand growth is concentrated in the non-OECD… Bcf/d 470 Demand Supply 2030 level Other Other N. America FSU Mid East Other Africa Australia Mid East 420 India China 370 Mid East Other N.

) to a level of gas use in 2030 (46 Bcf/d) equal to that of the European Union in 2010. LNG represents a growing share of gas supply.a. LNG contributes 25% of global supply growth 2010-30.5%. compared to 19% for 1990-2010.1% p.a.1% p. more than twice as fast as total global gas production (2.a. The non-OECD accounts for 80% of global gas demand growth.a.…with LNG playing a growing role in supply Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel globally (2. Significant incremental supply (11-12% of global growth each) is also expected from Australia.6% p.0% p.) and faster than inter-regional pipeline trade (3.) and the Middle East (3. China contributes 23% to the global demand increase.a.a.).a. averaging 2. China.6% p. The share of gas in China’s primary energy consumption expands from 4.). and the US. Energy Outlook 2030 31 © BP 2012 . Global LNG supply is projected to grow 4.7% p.a.5% p.9% p.0% to 9. to 2030. Demand grows fastest in non-OECD Asia (4. On the supply side the main regional contributors to growth are the Middle East (26% of global growth) and FSU (19%). growth to 2030.). Gas grows rapidly in China (7.

& Other Bcf/d 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Power Industry Power Industry OECD 32 Gas demand growth 2010-30 Growth at constant fuel shares Effect of changing fuel mix 1990 2010 2030 Non-OECD © BP 2012 Energy Outlook 2030 . & Other OECD Power OECD Ind.Natural gas demand growth is supported by fuel substitution… Demand by sector Bcf/d 500 Transport 400 300 200 100 0 Non-OECD Power Non-OECD Ind.

8% p. growth is fastest in power (2.) and other sector (<0. despite growing four times from today’s level.a. especially in the OECD.a.a. Natural gas use in transport is confined to 2% of global gas demand in 2030. where rapidly expanding energy demand creates room for all fuels to grow. triggered by regulatory changes and lower relative prices.a. Efficiency gains and low population growth keep industrial (0. the power sector and the development of domestic resources.4% p.) and industry (2. Energy Outlook 2030 33 © BP 2012 .1% p. Non-OECD gas use is driven by industrialisation. Gas consumption expands most strongly in power (2.) and industry (2.9% p.9% p.) – consistent with historical patterns.6% p.). Growth in gas demand is supported by fuel substitution.a. In the OECD. About half of all incremental gas demand in the OECD power sector and 75% of incremental demand in OECD industry is substitution for other fuels.1% p.) gas growth low. growth is concentrated in the power sector (1.…as gas gains market share against coal and oil Of the major sectors globally.a. Substitution is much less pronounced in the non-OECD.a.).

by region North America Bcf/d 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 Europe Bcf/d 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 2010 2030 34 China Bcf/d 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 2010 2030 © BP 2012 Net pipeline imports Net LNG imports Syngas from coal Shale gas and CBM Conventional (inc.Unconventional gas will play a growing role… Sources of gas supply. tight gas) Domestic production .

a.. but likely to play a growing role in the long term as current technical and regulatory hurdles recede.609 Tcf of proved gas reserves in 2010. In Europe we do not expect major unconventional production before 2020.1% p. which are met by expansion of LNG and pipeline projects. unconventionals are in their infancy. up by more than 60%. Unconventionals remain to be appraised in detail globally. but still leave a rising need for imports. Energy Outlook 2030 35 © BP 2012 . In China gas production is expected to grow at 6. but current estimates suggest they could double this R/P ratio. from 26 Bcf/d in 2010 to 42 Bcf/d in 2030.…especially in North America and Asia The world had 6. Outside North America. sufficient for 59 years of production at current levels. The decline in conventional supply implies a growing import requirement for Europe. Sustained growth of shale gas raises the prospect of LNG exports from North America by 2030 (5 Bcf/d). Shale gas and coal bed methane (CBM) will account for 63% of North American production by 2030. CBM and shale gas are likely to contribute 46% to growth.

Coal consumption levels off after 2020… Coal demand by region Billion toe 5 4 5 4 Coal demand by sector Billion toe Oil Other China 3 2 1 3 2 Industry India Other Non-OECD OECD Power 1 0 1990 36 0 1990 Energy Outlook 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 © BP 2012 .

…as China shifts to a less coal-intensive economy
Coal consumption declines in the OECD (-1.1% p.a. 2010-30), offset by growth in the non-OECD (2.1% p.a.). In China, rapid coal consumption growth ends after 2020. This will bend the global trend: Growth is set to decline from 4.0% p.a. in 2000-2010 to just 0.5% p.a. in 2020-2030. Efficiency gains and structural shifts dramatically reduce coal intensity in China – coal consumed per unit of GDP is almost 60% lower in 2030 than today. Still, China accounts for 67% of global coal growth to 2030 and remains the largest coal consumer, increasing its share of global consumption from 48% to 53%. India’s continuing growth only partially offsets the slow-down of coal in China. India contributes 33% of global growth to 2030, and its share of global coal consumption climbs from today's 8% to 14% in 2030. India and China together account for all the global net growth to 2030. Both China and India face challenges in growing domestic production fast enough to keep up with demand. Their growing import requirements drive further expansion and integration of the global coal trade.
Energy Outlook 2030 37 © BP 2012

Non-fossil fuels growth is led by renewables in the OECD…
OECD
Billion toe 2.0 Renewables 1.5 Biofuels Hydro Nuclear 1.0 1.0 1.5 Billion toe 2.0

Non-OECD

Renewables in power
0.5 0.5

Biofuels
0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
38

0.0 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030
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Energy Outlook 2030

…while all sources grow rapidly in the non-OECD
Non-fossil fuels grow strongly in both the OECD (2.0% p.a.) and non-OECD (5.1% p.a.). OECD growth is concentrated in renewable power. Nuclear output is restored to pre-Fukushima levels by 2020, but thereafter shows only modest growth. Hydro continues to grow slowly, constrained by the availability of suitable sites. In the non-OECD growth is more evenly split between renewables, nuclear and hydro, as rapidly growing economies call on all available sources of energy supply. Nuclear output grows rapidly, averaging 7.8% p.a. 2010-30, as China, India and Russia pursue ambitious expansion programmes. Renewables growth is initially led by the EU, but from 2020 the US and China are the largest sources of growth. Over the 2020-30 period the non-OECD adds more renewable power than the OECD. The non-OECD increases its share of renewable power from 22% today to 43% by 2030.

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The increasing share of renewables in power and transport…
Share of power generation
30% 25% EU 20% 15% 10% 5% Non-OECD 0% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
40

Share of transport sector
30% 25% 20%

Other OECD World

15% 10% 5% 0% 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030
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Energy Outlook 2030

rising to 39% by 2030).…is constrained primarily by the cost of scaling up Renewables are generally more costly than other energy sources. By 2030.g. The rest of the OECD follows with a lag. although in some cases they are competitive already (e. Renewables face a tougher challenge penetrating the transport fuels market. Policy support is assumed to remain in place to help the industry deploy new technologies and drive down costs. Brazilian biofuels. 7% of world transport fuels come from renewable sources. and then the non-OECD also starts ramping up the share of renewables in power. A key constraint on the pace of renewables penetration is the willingness and ability to meet the rapidly expanding cost of policy support as renewables scale up. Energy Outlook 2030 41 © BP 2012 . By 2030 renewables supply 11% of world electricity. with 26% of power coming from renewables by 2030. The EU leads the way. while the US leads the OECD in incentivising biofuels (4% in 2010 to 15% by 2030). US onshore wind in the best locations). Brazil has the highest penetration of biofuels (21% in 2010.

Energy Outlook 2030 42 © BP 2012 .

Contents Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Key determinants China and India Middle East Transport Risks and unknowns Appendix 43 53 63 73 83 4 7 21 Energy Outlook 2030 43 © BP 2012 .

The pace and scale of development in India and China… Population Billion 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970 Energy Billion toe 18 15 12 9 GDP Trillion. $2010 PPP 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 © BP 2012 Rest of World India China 1990 2010 6 3 0 2030 1970 1990 44 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 .

posing two key questions:  Will China’s energy demand continue to grow as rapidly as in the past decade. 94% of net oil demand growth.…play a major role in shaping the global outlook By 2030 China and India will be the world’s largest and 3rd largest economies and energy consumers. urbanisation and motorisation. or will it slow? Will India replicate China’s pattern of a rapid acceleration of energy consumption growth as GDP rises. GDP and energy demand. or will it follow a different pattern of development? 45 © BP 2012  Energy Outlook 2030 . and 48% of the net growth in non-fossil fuels. 30% of gas. Rapid economic development means industrialisation. Over the next 20 years China and India combined account for all the net increase in global coal demand. jointly accounting for about 35% of global population. The development paths of China and India represent a major source of uncertainty for any global outlook.

The surge in China’s energy consumption slows… India Billion toe 5 Renewables* 4 3 2 1 0 1990 Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 2 1 0 1990 46 China Billion toe 5 4 3 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 © BP 2012 *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 2030 .

a. 1990-2010) due to slowing GDP growth and rapid improvement in energy intensity.6% p. at a similar income per capita level as in China today. constrained by prices and growing import dependency. (vs. by 2030 it consumes only about half the energy that China consumes today. 1990-2010) as improvements in energy efficiency partly offset the energy needs of industrialisation and infrastructure expansion. Gas gains market share along with nuclear and renewables in both countries. Oil’s share is flat at 18% in China and falls to 26% in India.a.…and is not repeated in India China’s energy demand growth is projected to decelerate to 3. there is no surge in energy demand as India industrialises. and from 53% to 50% in India due to domestic resource constraints.0% p. Coal remains the main commercial fuel. 6. 5.a.5% p.a. India remains on a lower path of energy intensity. Demand growth slows to 4. but its share falls from 70% to 55% in China as a result of maturing industrial structure.5% p. India does not follow China’s path. over the forecasting period (vs. Energy Outlook 2030 47 © BP 2012 .

1 India 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 48 © BP 2012 .4 China 0.2 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 $2010 GDP per capita (000s) 50 20 major countries 1820-2010 China 1970-2010 India 1945-2010 Energy intensity Toe per thousand $2010 GDP 0.China and India follow a historical pattern of development… Historical industrialisation Industry as %GDP 50 40 30 0.3 0.

The composition of industry also shifts away from heavily energy intensive sub-sectors as the need for infrastructure and urbanisation projects declines.…but from different starting points A stylised pattern of economic development shows energy intensity rising as the economic structure shifts from low energy intensive agriculture to intensive activities in industry. and then falling again as the economy shifts to the less energy intensive service sector (see the 2011 edition of the Energy Outlook). constraining the growth of energy demand. its share of industry in GDP will decline. We see this pattern at work in both. with a relatively high share of the service sector in GDP . As China matures. In India. The rate of decline in energy intensity accelerates. but it never reaches the Chinese level. India therefore remains significantly less energy intensive. China and India. the share of industry continues to grow. although they start from different places. Energy Outlook 2030 49 © BP 2012 . as infrastructure development catches up and manufacturing expands to absorb a growing labour force.

6 0.5 0.00.00.0 1.0 0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Other Transport Industry Primary energy growth by fuel Billion toe 1.10.10.2000 10 20 30 90.8 0.4 1.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.5 2.2000 10 20 30 © BP 2012 China India Renewables* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 2030 50 .0 90.4 0.0 2.2 1.Industry causes energy demand to decelerate… China: final energy demand by sector Billion toe 3.

Non-fossil fuels account for an increasing share of energy growth in both countries (44% and 16% in China and India respectively over the 2020-2030 period).a. the principal fuel in power and heavy industry. Energy Outlook 2030 51 © BP 2012 . with coal remaining the main source of primary energy growth (48%) in the next 20 years. especially post 2020. Its use in power generation declines between 2020 and 2030. India’s fuel mix changes more gradually. The contribution of coal to primary energy growth drops from 48% between 2010-2020 to 13% in 2020-2030.…as the fuel mix diversifies away from coal Our Outlook assumes structural economic transformation in China will significantly slow industry’s energy demand growth.9% p. driven by rising dependence on fossil-fuel imports and environmental challenges related to heavy coal use. in the last decade and accounted for about 80% of the final energy demand growth. Industrial energy consumption grew by 9. The fuel mix implications of this slowdown are most notable for coal.

Energy Outlook 2030 52 © BP 2012 .

Contents Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Key determinants China and India Middle East Transport Risks and unknowns Appendix 43 53 63 73 83 4 7 21 Energy Outlook 2030 53 © BP 2012 .

GDP per capita Index (1970=100) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 Energy per capita 500 400 300 200 100 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 Non-OECD Mid East * Other non-OECD OECD Energy intensity 300 240 180 120 60 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 *Non-OECD Middle East includes Arabian Peninsula.. Lebanon. Iran. Jordan.Resource availability shapes the Middle East. Syria 54 © BP 2012 . Iraq..

a gradual reduction in subsidies and other policies to improve efficiency. enjoying a comparative advantage in access to cheap energy. However. will remain energy intensive. due to a slowdown in the expansion of energy intensive industries (especially petrochemicals). in contrast. as well as gas for oil substitution.. The Middle East. Energy intensity in 1970 was less than half the level of other nonOECD. We expect energy intensity to start declining before 2020. modest improvements are likely.though gradual adjustments are expected Per capita income growth in the Middle East has lagged other regions and is likely to continue to do so. the Middle East region by 2030 is likely to be more than twice as energy intensive as the rest of the non-OECD. has soared. it was 50% higher. by 2010.. In 1970. Energy consumption. With the trend in other countries pointing toward continuous improvement. energy use per capita was roughly twice the rest of the non-OECD. by 2010. it was more than 3 times as high. reversing the long run upward trend.. Energy Outlook 2030 55 © BP 2012 .

Electricity Gas Oil Coal 0.Gas will play a key role in domestic demand.5 0... Regional demand by fuel Billion toe 1.1 0.0 Transport Industry Other 0.5 Renewables Hydro 1.0 Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 0.2 2010-30 growth by sector and fuel Billion toe 0.3 Hydro Nuclear Renew.0 1970 1990 2010 2030 56 Final energy use Inputs to power © BP 2012 Energy Outlook 2030 .

from 5. for 2010-30.0% p. and gas to 3.a.8% p. Energy Outlook 2030 57 © BP 2012 .9% 1970-2010.. The power sector increasingly replaces oil with gas.8% and 8.a. (compared to 4. The pace of oil displacement and the associated efficiency improvement is predicated on regional gas supply growth.a.. Energy consumption growth slows to 3. If the development of gas resources fails to materialise. and 55% in 2030. to 48% in 2010.1% in 1970-10). Energy growth is driven by industry and power generation.0% p. and 20% in 2030. with oil’s share dropping from 41% in 1990. The industrial sector needs oil and gas for petrochemicals and the expansion in energy-intensive LNG production.in power generation and industry The region continues to rely on oil and natural gas for nearly all of its energy demand.. additional oil will be required to fill the void. to 33% in 2010. The continuation of long-standing efforts to displace oil consumption with gas (to sustain oil exports) will continue to boost gas’ market share from 21% in 1970. oil demand growth is expected to slow to 2.

3 1.0 1.2 0.0 1. Retail gasoline prices (Nov 2010) $/litre 2.4 Iran 0.5 2.0 2011 increase tax subsidy Saudi Kuwait UAE India China US Brazil Germany 2.4 0.0 0.0 Gasoline price (Nov 2010)..5 0.5 1.High subsidies contribute to elevated energy intensity..0 0.1 Kuwait Saudi UAE Iran US India Germany China Brazil 0.2 0.8 0.6 Oil intensity vs prices Toe per thousand $2010 GDP subsidy tax 0. $/litre Energy Outlook 2030 58 © BP 2012 .

. A number of countries have already reduced subsidies and there is widespread interest in other measures to boost fuel efficiency.0% p. Our outlook assumes that the region’s governments slowly introduce measures to improve energy efficiency. contributing to the region’s high energy intensity.but policy changes should drive gradual improvement Many Middle Eastern countries heavily subsidise oil products and natural gas.a.. A lack of progress and/or delays on the assumed new policies is a key risk to this outlook: If oil intensity did not decline. oil demand would be 3 Mb/d higher in 2030. Iran substantially increased fuel prices last year in the face of international sanctions – and oil consumption fell. The region’s energy intensity gradually improves (-1. Energy Outlook 2030 59 © BP 2012 . for example.. Iraq has reduced oil subsidies under an agreement with the IMF. and Saudi Arabia committed to a G20 agreement in 2010 to end fossil fuel subsidies.) after 2020 due to eventual subsidy reduction and other efficiency measures.

0 1..5 20% Exports as share of global demand (excl. Mid East) 40% Oil Gas 30% Gas Oil 1.0 1970 1990 2010 2030 60 10% 0% 1970 1990 2010 2030 © BP 2012 Energy Outlook 2030 .5 2..The region’s role in global oil markets is set to continue. Mid East Oil and Gas Supply Billion toe 2.0 0.5 0.

. as incremental growth is consumed locally. Middle East oil exports currently supply 22% of global demand (excl.7 Mb/d) and Iraq (+3. both higher increments than over the past two decades. Iran (+9 Bcf/d). the impact on the region’s exports differs between the two fuels. Nonetheless. Failure to develop gas resources and/or to improve oil intensity will weigh on the region’s ability to deliver the expected supplies to global oil markets. rise to just 3% in 2030. but will drop to 67% by 2030 as gas production expands. rising to 25% by 2030.. Middle East). from 2010 to 2030 oil supply is expected to expand by 10 Mb/d and gas production by 41 Bcf/d. Energy Outlook 2030 61 © BP 2012 .5 Mb/d) will dominate oil supply growth while Qatar (+11 Bcf/d). and Saudi Arabia (+9 Bcf/d) drive gas production. While there are large supply increases in both oil and gas. The region’s share of global supply will increase to 34% for oil and to 18% for gas (from 29% and 14% today). only 2% of global demand today. Saudi Arabia (+3.as gas supply growth meets domestic needs Oil constitutes 74% of the region’s energy production. Gas exports..

Energy Outlook 2030 62 © BP 2012 .

Contents Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Key determinants China and India Middle East Transport Risks and unknowns Appendix 43 53 63 73 83 4 7 21 Energy Outlook 2030 63 © BP 2012 .

Vehicle numbers are set to grow rapidly in the Non-OECD… Total number of vehicles Millions 1.600 Vehicles 800 Vehicles per thousand people (1970-2030) US Germany 1.200 600 Japan 800 Non-OECD 400 400 OECD 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 200 China India 2000 2030 0 1970 Energy Outlook 2030 64 © BP 2012 .

where the vehicle population rise from 340 million to 840 million over the next 20 years – a 2 ½ fold increase. Between 2010 and 2030.7% p.a. vehicle density per 1000 population grows from approximately 50 to 140 in China (5. This reflects the impact of current and assumed future policies. including rising fuel taxation.6 billion by 2030.7% p.…while OECD growth slows due to saturation The global vehicle fleet (commercial vehicles and passenger cars) grows rapidly – by 60% from around 1 billion today to 1. China is expected to follow a slower path to vehicle ownership than seen historically in other countries. More than three quarters of the total fleet growth occurs in the nonOECD. Energy Outlook 2030 65 © BP 2012 .a.).) and from 20 to 65 in India (6. Most of the growth is in the developing world with some mature markets at saturation levels. designed to limit oil import dependency and congestion. widespread mass transportation options and relatively uneven income distribution.

road Oil .non-road 0 1990 6 10 Projected car efficiency Litres per 100 km EU US light vehicles 8 China 4 2010 2030 2 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 66 © BP 2012 .Transport fuel demand is met predominantly by oil… By energy type Billion toe 3 Electricity 2 Gas Coal Biofuels 1 Oil .

9% p. Despite the projected 60% increase in vehicles over the next 20 years. Energy Outlook 2030 67 © BP 2012 . Other fuels gain share. Prices also play a role.a. since high fuel costs provide an additional incentive to improve vehicle efficiency.…with fuel growth slowing as vehicle efficiency improves Transport fuel in 2030 remains dominated by oil (87%) and biofuels (7%). such as natural gas and electricity (4% and 1% respectively in 2030) are constrained by limited policy support combined with a general lack of infrastructure in all but a handful of markets. Vehicle saturation in the OECD and likely increases in taxation (or subsidy reduction) and development of mass transportation in the non-OECD are other factors. energy consumption in total transport is forecast to grow only 26% (1.a. between 1990 and 2010).2% p. The growth rate of energy used for transport declines due to accelerating improvements in fuel economy and the impact of high oil prices on driving behaviour. Vehicle fuel economy improvements are driven by tightening policy (CO2 emissions limits in Europe and CAFE standards in the US) and enabled by improving technology. – down from 1.

BEVs Full hybrid 4% 11% Global vehicle fleet in 2030 16% 69% 40% 20% 0% 2010 Energy Outlook 2030 Conventional incl. stop-start 2020 2030 68 © BP 2012 .Policy and technology enable efficiency improvements… Passenger car sales by type 100% 80% 60% Mild hybrid Plug-ins incl.

Sales of plug-in vehicles. based on current economics and consumer attitudes towards range limitations. are forecast to be 8% of sales in 2030. are likely to be preferred to BEVs. downsizing. with the capability to switch to oil for longer distances.…as the vehicle fleet gradually shifts to hybrids The efficiency of the internal combustion engine is likely to double over the next 20 years. while hybrids dominate (full hybrids 22%. By 2030 our outlook shows that approximately 30% of conventional vehicles have been replaced by advanced technologies. including full battery electric vehicle (BEVs). boosting and lower vehicle weight followed by the gradual penetration of the vehicle fleet by hybrid cars. mild hybrids 34%). Energy Outlook 2030 69 © BP 2012 . Hybridisation of the total vehicle fleet takes much longer because of relatively long vehicle lifetimes and because we assume that heavy commercial vehicles are unlikely to use this technology. By 2030. The improvement come initially from engine stop-start technologies. sales of conventional passenger vehicles (accounting for nearly 100% today) fall to a third of total sales. Plug-in vehicles.

CTL.Efficiency gains have the biggest impact on oil demand… Mb/d 60 Oil demand in road transport Non-OECD 50 Non-OECD OECD Biofuels Other* 40 OECD 30 2010 Increased number of vehicles Reduced average usage Improved vehicle efficiency Increased use of alternatives 2030 * Includes GTL. LNG and electricity Energy Outlook 2030 70 © BP 2012 . CNG.

1% p. but there are still barriers delaying the scale-up. congestion and mass transit outweigh the impact of rising incomes.a.4 Mb/d) as high fuel prices (partly due to rising taxes or reduced subsidies). Biofuels make up more than half of the incremental demand for alternative fuels in transport. Use of electric vehicles and CNG/LNG is growing. Vehicle fuel economy is forecast to improve by 1. due mostly to more vehicles in the non-OECD. oil demand in road transport would increase by a massive 23 Mb/d over the next 20 years.…but alternative fuels may play a greater role post 2030 Assuming no changes to vehicle usage. efficiency and the use of alternatives. These efficiency gains are equivalent to 11 Mb/d by 2030 – saving approximately half of the incremental oil demand that would otherwise be required under the above “no change” case. more than our total projected oil demand growth (16 Mb/d). Alternative fuels therefore are not expected to have a material impact by 2030. Average miles driven per vehicle is expected to fall (saving 2. in both the OECD and non-OECD. Energy Outlook 2030 71 © BP 2012 . Instead we project oil demand growth for road transport to be 6 Mb/d.

Energy Outlook 2030 72 © BP 2012 .

Contents Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Key determinants Risks and unknowns Appendix 4 7 21 43 73 83 Energy Outlook 2030 73 © BP 2012 .

and its global fuel impact Billion toe 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 …and in oil markets Mb/d in 2030 10 8 6 4 2 0 % of world demand in 2030 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% Business as usual (at trend intensity) Base case 10% 5% 0% Coal Oil Gas CO2 74 China Trans. M.Quantifying and benchmarking “business as usual” trends… Implications of business as usual trends .for China..East © BP 2012 ..

…helps to illustrate the uncertainties around any outlook One way to explore the range of uncertainty around any energy outlook is to extrapolate past trends to examine the implications of “business as usual”. We illustrate this here for China (the market with the greatest potential to change the global outlook). this would trigger repercussions elsewhere in the system. the resulting higher Chinese demand would increase global coal demand in 2030 by 32%. Inevitably. Energy Outlook 2030 75 © BP 2012 . Global CO2 emissions would also be 18% higher in 2030. oil by 8% and gas by 2%. by assuming that energy intensity will continue to decline at the same trend rate as over the last 10 years (less than half the decline rate in our base case projection) to 2030. The implications of the Chinese “business as usual” case on oil markets are roughly on par with two similar illustrations: Keeping oil exports from the Middle East flat 2010-30. Compared to our base case. and benchmarking the improvement of fuel efficiency in transport to the rate achieved over the past ten years.

America Africa Other Asia Pacific -1 Net importers Net exporters Energy Outlook 2030 76 © BP 2012 . America Mid-East China FSU India Key: Billion toe 1 0 Gas Oil Coal 1990 2010 2030 S.Energy imbalances improve in the Americas… Europe N. & C.

…but worsen in Europe and in Asia Pacific Europe’s energy deficit remains roughly at today’s levels for oil and coal but increases by 65% for natural gas. Among energy importing regions.8 Btoe (spread across all fuels) while India’s import requirement grows by 0. with deficits in Europe and Asia Pacific met by supply growth in the Middle East. The rest of Asia Pacific remains a big oil importer at similar levels to today. Energy Outlook 2030 77 © BP 2012 . This is matched by gas production growth in the FSU and trade. China’s energy deficit increases by 0. North America is an exception. Africa and S & C America. Asian energy requirements are partially met by increased Middle East and African production but the rebalancing of global energy trade as a result of the improved net position in the Americas is also a key factor. In aggregate.4 Btoe (mainly oil and coal). today’s energy importers will need to import 40% more in 2030 than they do today. the FSU. with growth in biofuel supplies and unconventional oil and gas turning today’s energy deficit (mainly oil) into a small surplus by 2030.

4 0.8 0.2 0.2 1.2 1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 China EU27 US Gas Oil Import share of respective fuel Coal 42% 80% 47% 91% 80% 94% 32% 40% 6% 57% 1990 2010 2030 78 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 © BP 2012 .0 -0.6 0.0 0.Import dependency rises in Asia and Europe… India Billion toe 1.

In China. The import share of oil demand and the volume of oil imports in the US will fall below 1990s levels. European net imports (and imports as a share of consumption) rise significantly due to declining domestic oil and gas production and rising gas consumption. Oil continues to dominate China's energy imports.…and falls in the US Import dependency. India will increasingly have to rely on imports of all three – oil. measured as the share of demand met by net imports. imports of oil and natural gas rise sharply as demand growth outpaces domestic supply. Energy Outlook 2030 79 © BP 2012 . increases for most major energy importers except the US. China also becomes a major importer of coal. The US also becomes a net exporter of natural gas. largely due to rising domestic shale oil production and ethanol displacing crude imports. although gas imports increase by a factor of sixteen. Virtually all of the growth in net imports is from natural gas. coal and natural gas – to supply its growing energy needs.

Carbon emission growth slows. but more action is needed… Global CO2 emissions from energy use Billion tonnes CO2 40 Billion tonnes CO2 40 Base Case Policy Case 30 Non-OECD 30 Coal 20 20 Gas IEA “450 Scenario” 10 OECD 10 Oil 0 1990 Energy Outlook 2030 2010 2030 80 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 © BP 2012 .

succeeds in reducing emissions in 2030 (by 10% versus 2010). The net result is a projected increase in global emissions of 28% by 2030.…to get emissions falling by 2030 We assume continued tightening in policies to address climate change. a declining emissions path by 2030 is achievable. but this is outweighed by carbon increases due to rapid economic growth. the path to reach 450 ppm remains elusive. This leaves the world well above the required emissions path to stabilise the concentration of greenhouse gases at the level recommended by scientists (around 450 ppm). including carbon pricing. Energy Outlook 2030 81 © BP 2012 . Carbon abatement policies in the OECD. Even in this case. given the political will to shoulder the cost. However. Non-OECD countries do make significant progress in reducing the carbon intensity of their economies. Our “Policy Case” (discussed in more detail in last year’s Outlook) assumes a step-change in the political commitment to action on carbon emissions.

Conclusion GDP Energy and CO2 . Index (1970=100) 800 700 600 500 400 300 Oil 200 OECD Gas Coal Energy can be available and affordable GDP    Competition Innovation Regulation harnessing market forces Energy CO2 Energy security will remain an issue CO2 emissions not on track 100 1970 1990 2010 2030 82 © BP 2012 Energy Outlook 2030 .

Contents Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Key determinants Risks and unknowns Appendix 4 7 21 43 73 83 Energy Outlook 2030 83 © BP 2012 .

.. Changes in 2030 levels versus the 2011 Outlook Revised down Nuclear output Biofuels supply Renewables in power India total energy demand N.Key changes versus last year’s Outlook. America oil & gas supply -100 -50 0 Mtoe Energy Outlook 2030 84 © BP 2012 Revised up Biofuels Oil 50 100 Gas 150 .

Biofuels growth (while still very robust) has been reduced due to more modest expectations of penetration of next generation fuels. Indian energy consumption has been revised upwards on a reassessment of the country’s economic development path. Energy Outlook 2030 85 © BP 2012 . North American oil and natural gas supply outlooks have been revised higher due to evolving expectations for shale plays. Renewables in power generation have been revised higher due to improved prospects for cost reductions. Nuclear prospects have been revised down after Fukushima and the resulting policy changes in Japan and Europe.…result in little net change in total energy Our projection for world energy demand and supply is little changed since our last outlook (up about 1% by 2030). has been offset by a slightly slower annual growth rate. A slightly higher base year. They also play a part in replacing the lost nuclear output in Japan and Europe. due to strong global consumption growth in 2010.

Differences with other outlooks are mostly due to… World energy consumption Billion toe 20 External range 15 4 10 3 2 5 1 0 1990 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 86 Billion toe 6 BP 5 Growth of energy consumption 2010-2030 Non-OECD OECD IEA XOM IEA EIA NPS NPS BP BP OPEC IEA CPS © BP 2012 Energy Outlook 2030 .

initially lying near the upper end of the range but moving toward the centre by 2030. which assesses demand prospects on the assumption that announced national policy objectives are fully implemented. non-OECD prospects Our outlook is within the range of publicly-available forecasts. In contrast to the IEA scenarios. and their “Current Policies Scenario”. our outlook does not take policies as given but makes judgments about the likelihood of future policy developments and their impacts. Our outlook lies between the IEA’s “New Policies Scenario”. while our projections for non-OECD growth are stronger than most. Many forecasters expect higher growth in OECD energy demand than we do. which assumes current policies remain in place through 2030. Energy Outlook 2030 87 © BP 2012 .…differing views on OECD vs.

C. UK United Nations Population Division. 2011 International Energy Agency. Paris. 2009 United Nations Statistics Division.C. Paris. United States.l. London. 2011 Mitchell. Washington.. France. Oxford. Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania.0. April 2011 International Energy Agency. September 2011 Energy Information Administration. 2011 Waterborne Energy.. Heston. Germany Energy Information Administration.. Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries. June 2011 Cedigaz.. World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. Eschborn. United States. B. Houston. 2007 Oxford Economics Ltd. D. 2011 International Energy Agency. Penn World Table Version 7. International Historical Statistics 1750-2005.R. A. International Energy Outlook . Inc.. R. New York. France.. Paris. France. Energy Balances of OECD Countries. Summers. May 2011. World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United States. Washington. United States.c. United States. United States. Palgrave Macmillan. United States Plus various official sources Energy Outlook 2030 88 © BP 2012 . National Accounts Statistics. New York. B. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion. France Center for International Comparisons of Production. New York... BP Statistical Review of World Energy. 2011 International Energy Agency.Data sources BP p. Texas. United Kingdom. Aten. France. Paris. Paris. World Energy Outlook 2011. D.

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