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Saeed Khan Jadoon OGDCL, Islamabad APRIL 11, 2011 SERENA HOTEL ISLAMABAD
PROVOKING THOUGHTS With the nuclear industry in crisis and oil prices on the rise, could the solution to our energy problems be in the ground at home? Daniel yergin on the promise of shale gas. He ," states that the turmoil in the middle east is a "sea change" for the global oil market and that the U.S.A and emerging markets are most economically vulnerable to rising oil prices.
Outline of Presentation
Objectives Energy out Look Existing Indigenous Resource International Scenario Conventional & Unconventional Reservoirs Potential of Unconventional Resource Development Model Economic Consideration Summary
OBJECTIVES
DEVELOPMENT PHIL0SPHY
Oil, 32.1%
Gas, 48.3%
Conventional Gas- 30 TCF Tight Gas- 40 TCF Coal -185 Billion Tons
Advance Resources International USA Gas Projected values from different Sources, 2009
Unconventional Reservoirs
Poor reservoir properties have capability of storage but poor Productivity
Unconventional Reservoirs
COAL BED METHAN (CBM) Gas is generated during Coalification Process Gas Adsorbed on the Coal Very poor conductivity Distributed over Sindh & Punjab Province
No Conclusive Work
Thickness (meters)
100 -1200
Thalar Shale
Vastly Distributed 45 184
Samber Shale
Vastly Distributed 500- 600
Chichali Shale
Vastly Distributed 35 130
90 0
1050
5 97
11 25
3420000
112
105 0
105
975
900
Dhodak
3400000 3380000
975
0
1050
1125
975
3360000
1050
1125
1050
3340000
1125
1200
1125
50 10
1125
3320000
975
120 0
120 0
1275
3300000
900
1200
12 00
5 97
50 10
25 11
3280000
1275
75 12
825
750 675
900
825
750
675
00 12
3260000
975
900
825
750
675
105 0
1125
25 11
1275
97 5
00 12
5 112
0 105
975
900
3240000
600
12 00
1125
0 105
3220000
525
600
Pirkoh
9 Loti 75
900
825 750 675
600
450
600
3200000
600
375
525
Zin
1050
975
825
900 825
750 675
750
3180000
30 0
45 0
675
600
525
3140000 3160000
22 5
37 5
30 0
22 5
150
0
75
Uch
525
600
525 450
375
5 52
75 Jhal_Magsi
0 15
450
375
300
450
450
375
300
300
375
3120000
22 5
30 0
3100000
225
Qadirpur
225
150
75
Badar
150
225
300
3080000
225
150
75
5000 10000 15000 1:420000 20000 25000 30000m
Sara_West 150
Thickness
1275 1200 1125 1050 975 900 825 750 675 600 525 450 375 300 225 150 75 0
3060000
75
75
540000 560000 580000 600000 620000 640000
3040000
1:420000
Contour i nc
75
0
340000 360000 380000 400000 420000 440000 460000 480000
500000
520000
660000
Talhar Shale
Chichali Area
Ghazij Area
Talhar Area
Development Challenges
Evaluation Uncertainties High Investment Longer Production Time Longer Payout Time High Density of wells Skilled Manpower Resolvable Success
Environmental Issue
Political Stability Will to Accept Challenges
Vertical & Horizontal well Multilateral Wells Hydraulic Fracturing Stimulation Techniques
Multilateral Wells
DEVELOPMENT PHILOSPHY
GOVT
Exploration Companies
Distribution Companies
Manufacturing Industries
Power Producer
Should Invest to Explore Tight and Shale gas Exploration area for Tight and Shale Gas should be awarded to the companies Price Incentives have been given Freedom of Marketing of Gas to the Consumer
Service Providers-Consortium
Bring Relevant Technology Efficient Execution of jobs Cost effective Solution
Continue--- Need consortium of industry units for sharing of their cost of energy No Misuse of Freedom No Monopolization of any company weather it is service or distribution companies.
ECONOMIC EVALUATION
Production Challenge
80
60
Gas MMSCFD
40
20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Years of production
GIIP: Recoverable Reserves: Number of wells: Failure: Gas Flow Rate: Development Time: Well Capex $: Facilities: Opex: Field Life: GAS Price: IROR: Pay back: Royalty &Tax Included
1 TCF 240 BCF 25 10% 5MMSCFD 2 year 478 Million 50 Million 147 Million 25 year $ 4.90/MMBTU 15 % 8.5 year
SUMMARY
Enough unconventional Reservoir exist in the country Unconventional Reservoirs are required to be evaluated by collection of more data by initiating Pilot Projects in Shale Gas as earliest as possible. Exploration blocks may be awarded for unconventional reservoirs. Economically, Projects in Shale & Tight Gas looks viable.
Continue--- Human Resource Development to cater the demand of oil companies operating in Pkistan
Introduction of consortium concept of E & P companies for the planning of their work Consortium of Service companies for cost effective solution of development of these Reservoirs. Integrated Approach of all the stack holder is required to develop these unconventional Reservoirs
THANKS